From the Record:
Houses owned by banks may be bargains
Vincent and Kerri Bagnaturo had been looking to trade up to a bigger place in Ridgewood for almost two years when they came upon the house they felt was the right fit for them.
It was a spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath house with a large family room, on a 200-foot deep property in the sought-after Willard School neighborhood.
The home also was an REO. Short for real-estate-owned, REO means a home has been through foreclosure, has failed to be sold at auction and has been repossessed by the bank holding the mortgage. Banks wants to get these properties off their books, and get them sold.
…
In New Jersey, REOs are more prevalent — and generally more of a mess — in urban neighborhoods hit by the subprime crisis.“The homes in Essex County, Newark, Jersey City, Paterson can be the worst,” said Derek Eisenberg, who specializes in REO appraisals for banks through his company, Continental Real Estate Services. “I’ve had to ask for a police escort to go into crack houses where the plumbing’s been ripped out, the windows have been ripped out, the properties became vacant and got looted.”
But he’s also appraised REOs in much nicer locales, such as Saddle River and Alpine.
The Bagnaturos first saw their home — a bank-owned property in Ridgewood — late last fall, right after it came on the market.
“It was listed at $1.89 million,” Vincent Bagnaturo said. “Way out of our price range.”
The Bagnaturos made a bid of under $1 million in November. The bank countered by lowering the price $80,000.
“We just sat tight,” Bagnaturo said. “They [the bank] sat tight and we sat tight. My assumption is that, over the course of time, they realized they were well overpriced.”
At the end of January, the bank lowered the asking price to $1.4 million. The Bagnaturos bid again, and, after a series of negotiations, won the house for $1,050,000.
…
The last big surge of bank-owned properties on the market was in the early 1990s during the savings and loan crisis, Eisenberg said.Real estate agent Mole bought an REO herself in the early ’90s.
“In those days, foreclosed houses never made it to the Realtors or to the Multiple Listing Service,” Mole said.
“You had to watch the sheriff’s auctions or you had to know somebody at the bank. I knew the guy at the bank. I had gotten divorced and my salary was low at the time. I said [to the banker], ‘Would you give me a mortgage?’ He said, ‘I’ll not only give you a mortgage, I’ll sell you a house.’ He got me into a beautiful house that I was able to buy for much less than its assessed value.”
…
REO specialist Stajek believes North Jersey will see even greater numbers of REOs for sale in the near future.“The country as a whole has not yet seen what is going to happen with REOs,” Stajek said. “Inventory is going to double. In Bergen County, we’ve just barely scratched the surface.”
From Bloomberg:
Post-Subprime Economy Means Subpar Growth as New Normal in U.S.
A normal U.S. economy is likely to look a lot different, and worse, after the credit crisis is over and financial markets settle down.
Companies will continue to struggle to raise cash for expansion and innovation as investors and lenders remain focused on conserving capital. Workers, too, may have less flexibility to go after new opportunities, because many will be stuck where they are — in homes worth less than the balances on their mortgages.
“Once you’ve made terrible, overly optimistic errors, that paralyzes you for some time,” says economist Paul Samuelson, a Nobel laureate.
The bottom line: The U.S. may have to get used to a new definition of normal, characterized by weaker productivity gains, slower economic growth, higher unemployment and a diminished financial-services industry.
Long-term growth in the U.S. may drop to 2 percent to 2.5 percent a year from the 3 percent rate of the last 15 years, according to Peter Hooper, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York and a former Federal Reserve official.
Even after markets recover, “the cost of risk capital is likely to be significantly higher than during the credit bubble,” he says.
Market analysis, Texas-style
DALLAS–If you’re going to bring together the nation’s real estate journalists for a conference, you might as well do it in what is arguably the most stable housing market in the country.
They’re fond of saying here that in the housing boom, North Texas home prices never registered the meteoric rise as elsewhere in the country, so it’s unlikely the region’s prices will swoon the way they have in Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona—the four horsemen of the housing apocalypse.
Gaines told the journalists he expects national home prices to slide 8 to 14 percent before the market bottoms out. That could take until 2010, owing to the ongoing pressure of re-setting adjustable-rate mortgages, he said. And those ARMs aren’t solely of the notorious subprime variety, Gaines said.
“Subprimes aren’t the only iceberg in choppy waters,” he said. Prime ARMs (for borrowers with decent credit) were involved in a disproportionate share of foreclosures initiated in the fourth quarter of 2007: Though prime ARMs amounted to 15 percent of outstanding loans at that time, they represented 20 percent of all foreclosures started in that period, he said.
**
That means, besides listings of properties for sale, consumers have an insatiable appetite for data on neighborhoods, schools, crime and anything else that might affect their buying decisions, according to a panel of thinkers representing Realtor.com, Google and Zillow.com
Inflation and credit crunch prompts pessimism over growth prospects
British businesses’ confidence in the state of the economy plunged during April, according to a survey from Lloyds TSB, with 70 per cent of companies pessimistic about prospects for economic growth.
Lloyds said confidence had been hit by rising oil prices, the fact that high inflation has reduced the chances of interest rate cuts this year, and the credit crunch. The picture painted by the survey is the gloomiest since the bank began researching business confidence in 2002.
Trevor Williams, Lloyds TSB’s chief economist, said: “For some time, the threat of a downturn has been looming, and now firms are becoming even more concerned as fuel prices rise further. With inflation on the rise, it’s highly unlikely that the Bank of England will be cutting interest rates any time soon, and that may be weighing heavily on some businesses.”
“Houses owned by banks may be bargains”
keywords: may be
not so sure uf people would want to buy a house that has been left abandoned and left for up keep my the banks, and to buy in a neighborhood that has forclosed homes.
Because were there is one, there is another, and where there is forclosures, there is twice as many on the brink.
This headline and article sounds like a talking point just to try and attempt to peek peoples interst and get them motivated back into RE.
If you think the RE market has cooled off and are some slight price declines in your area, let me say this to you:
Baby!, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
SAS
This headline and article sounds like a talking point just to try and attempt to peek peoples interst and get them motivated back into RE.
It is, read the byline, “Special to the Record”.
Grim,
I’m calling it now.
I expect Citi to either collapse, or the Fed will have to do a JPM resuce on it sometime this year or next.
lets keep a watchful eye ;)
SAS
Gloom & Doom Economist: Credit Crunch Will Spread
The credit crunch is far from over and is likely to hit sectors other than housing, Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of “The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report”, told “Squawk Box Europe.”
Consumers will cut spending because of the high oil and energy prices, and all that the recent rally in stocks has shown is that investors think shares offer a better cushion against inflation than bonds, Faber added.
“I personally think we are just starting the credit crunch and it is going to be worse,” he said. “I think the economy really stinks and the next sector to be hit, in America and elsewhere, is retail.”
“It is, read the byline, “Special to the Record”.
ya got me. I missed that one.
;)
SAS
Hollywood bust as celebrities feel the credit crunch
Dido may be able to play the piano and the violin, but coping with the Hollywood property market has meant a little fine-tuning for the mistress of hotel-foyer melodies. The 36-year-old British singer has become the latest celebrity to take a hit as high-end houses in America show signs of falling prey to the sub-prime mortgage crisis.
Until recently, mega-rich homeowners felt themselves immune to the trouble afflicting those who Leona Helmsley, the late billionaire property investor, liked to call “the little people”. Yet a survey for The Sunday Times conducted by Zillow.com, a website that tracks house prices in America, has found that reality has begun to catch up with the cost of property even in the smartest postcodes.
Credit crunch not over yet – Trichet
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has warned that the end of the credit crunch is not yet in sight. He also told BBC radio the world was experiencing an ‘ongoing and very significant market correction’.
Mr Trichet said policymakers needed to make containing inflation their priority. ‘Price stability and credibility in price stability in the medium term is the best way to have a high level of sustainable growth and sustainable job creation,’ he said.
also, I watched the Lindsey Williams “The Energy Non-Crisis” on the google video yesterday.
For the first 3o minutes of it, I thought this guy is a kook just trying to sell a book. But, as he continued on, and knowing what I know and whom I know, that guy isn’t really too far off.
He leaves some factors out, but he does highlight on a very good point.
SAS
U.S. Recession to End by September, Business Economists Say
May 19 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy will probably exit from a recession by the end of the next quarter as credit markets improve after a year of turmoil, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics.
The worst of the U.S. credit crunch and housing slump is about over, and growth will pick up to 2.1 percent in the second half, according to the poll of 52 professional forecasters taken April 17 to May 1. More than 60 percent of the economists surveyed predicted that businesses and consumers will find it easier to borrow in the final six months of the year.
From CNN/Money:
Why you just can’t seem to save enough
Your mortgage is prime. Your credit-card balance is reasonable. You’ve set aside some money for retirement. Feeling like you’ve done all you should? Didn’t think so.
All signs point to an economic slowdown, and there’s a real risk that it will be a nasty one. Jobs look shaky, food and gas prices are up, and the credit you thought would be there in an emergency could get a lot more expensive.
Even if you’ve been better than the average American about saving, you probably wish that you had a bigger cash cushion right now. And if you’re at all like me, you’ve been looking around your house lately and wondering, “Why didn’t I put the money I spent on that in the bank?”
Seriously, there are shirts in my closet that would make Daisy Buchanan weep…and I get misty too when I think of the cash I wasted on them. What can I say? I bought them during the booming ’90s when I covered Wall Street, where even the bit players dressed like minor British royals. I knew other reporters – reporters – who had their shirts custom-made. My off-the-rack extravagances seemed sensible by comparison.
In short, I got caught up in a kind of consumer mob. It’s no secret that our spending habits are driven in part by the crowd we’re in. But there’s more going on here than envy and status seeking. Most of us don’t like doing math, and even fewer enjoy keeping a budget. When deciding whether a big expense is reasonable or not, we often take mental shortcuts. One of the easiest is to look at what people we know are doing.
#6 sas,
I think you may be right with Citi. A friend wants me to apply to them but I’m pretty hesitant about going to work for them.
Shore (204, yesterday)-
“Islamist candidates won 24 of 50 seats in Kuwait’s parliamentary elections on Saturday, a gain of two seats over their total in the last round of elections there two years ago, according to official results released Sunday.”
Does this mean that Bush, the senior, can no longer visit Kuwait?
From the NY Post:
LANDLORDS SLASHING CITY RENTS
Some New York City landlords are dropping their rents and offering up more incentives in a bid to woo tenants in the sluggish economy, several real-estate brokers told The Post.
It’s still not easy to find the apartment of your dreams, but more deals are popping up and some rents are dropping – even in Manhattan, according to brokers and tenants.
“The market is softening and it’s taking longer to rent apartments,” said Steve Fuchs, director of leasing for Besen Residential.
He said he’s had several prime apartments that have languished on the market, like a studio in the East 80s for $1,325 that’s been vacant for a month.
One of his landlords recently lowered the prices on his Upper West Side apartments – knocking down the studios from $1,850 to $1,700 and one-bedrooms from $2,650 to $2,400.
“Also, more and more landlords are starting to pay a one-month fee instead of the tenant paying the fee,” said Fuchs.
Adjina Dekidjiev, rental-operations manager with Manhattan Apartments, said that April is usually slow, but it’s been even slower than usual.
“I would say the recession has a lot to do with it,” she said.
Overall, rents across Manhattan have increased modestly or stayed the same in the past 12 months – except for studios, which dropped citywide by 2 percent, according to data from Citi Habitats.
However, average rents in some areas have dipped dramatically in that time.
For example, the price of a SoHo studio dropped a whopping 24 percent – from $2,455 to $1,855 – from April ’07 to April ’08, according to the most recent data from Citi Habitats.
And the average rents for two-bedrooms on the Lower East Side are down almost 18 percent, from $4,144 to $3,403.
CalPERS misjudges the landscape
SACRAMENTO — The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, which poured about $1 billion into a troubled real estate deal, is in negotiations to keep a related loan default from turning into a bankruptcy.
CalPERS, the nation’s biggest public pension fund, and its partners acquired a controlling interest in 15,000 acres of undeveloped land in the Santa Clarita Valley early last year, before the meltdown in the housing market. The land, once owned by Newhall Land and Farming Co., was appraised at $2.6 billion at the time of the CalPERS investment but has dropped considerably in value since then.
LandSource received a notice of default on April 22 after missing a payment of an undisclosed amount, and a Standard & Poor’s online newsletter, citing anonymous sources, predicted that LandSource would file for bankruptcy this month.
From the Press of Atlantic City:
Pawnbrokers prove to be kings of weathering economic storm
It used to be said that the casino business was the one industry that was truly recession-proof. The downturn in the local gaming industry during the ongoing economic slump is testing that conventional wisdom.
So is there any business that can weather the storm?
“People pawn just to buy gas,” said Martin Wood, owner of Wood’s Loan Office in Atlantic City. “Thing’s aren’t so great out there.”
Pawnbrokers, it seems, are uniquely positioned to thrive in times of uncertainty.
“This is the type of business that does well in good times and in bad,” Wood said. “In good times, you sell a lot of merchandise, and in bad times, we make loans. We just continue to plug along. We’ve been doing this since 1927. We’ve seen it all.”
Business, he said, is up about 15 percent over the past year and a half. But there is one odd part about the upswing in pawning – while people are pawning more, people are managing to pay off their loans more at the same time.
“The redemption ratio has increased,” Wood said, “which is amazing. The amount of loans paid up to date or redeemed is up to 90 percent. It’s always been around 80 percent.”
…
There is a downside, however: Pawning is up, but purchases of goods are down.
“Sales are not good,” he said. “Then again, people don’t have too much money to spend. We’re fortunate that we don’t live on sales but on the interest.”
Interest rates here stand at about 3.7 percent per month, he said, “pretty much the lowest in the country, interest-wise.”
Only 3.7 percent?
Will he take CDOs?
SG (10)-
“Mr Trichet said policymakers needed to make containing inflation their priority. ‘Price stability and credibility in price stability in the medium term is the best way to have a high level of sustainable growth and sustainable job creation.”
Silly me…all this time, I thought the way to sustain growth and job creation was through hyperinflation and lying about economic statistics.
In foreclosures, guilt by association
With no safety net, owners watch condos slide or do the work themselves
Four years ago, she bought her first condo in a glassy new Miami tower when the building was filling up. Now nearly one in six residents in the 43-story building is battling foreclosure and their contributions to the association are shrinking. Each of the remaining owners has had to chip in an extra $1,000 assessment and $50 more a month for cable and Internet. That is on top of Sanz’s $450 monthly maintenance fee.
“We have not even approached the bottom and will not approach the bottom until 2009,” said Hessam Nadji, managing director of research services at Marcus & Millichap.
grim (19)-
Why go the a pawn shop? Take your CDOs to the window.
You won’t even feel like a loser when you go there. After they hand you your Treasury notes, they tell you how wonderful you are.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. April Leading Economic Indicators Index Probably Unchanged
The index of U.S. leading indicators was probably unchanged in April, signaling a prolonged stagnation in growth, economists said before a report today.
The projected reading in the Conference Board’s gauge would follow a 0.1 percent gain in March, according to the median estimate of 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The measure points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months.
The biggest housing slump in a quarter century and mounting financial losses indicate the economy will not improve after growing over the last two quarters at the slowest pace since the 2001 contraction. The odds of a recession this year are better than even, according to economists surveyed earlier this month.
“Recession remains the most apt description of the economy, but it is a very modest recession, at least so far,” said Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
The Conference Board, a New York-based research group, will issue the report at 10 a.m. Economists’ forecasts ranged from a decline of 0.6 percent to a gain of 0.2 percent.
From Bloomberg:
Banks Hide $35 Billion in Writedowns From Income, Filings Show
Banks and securities firms, reeling from record losses resulting from the collapse of the mortgage securities market, are failing to acknowledge in their income statements at least $35 billion of additional writedowns included in their balance sheets, regulatory filings show.
From CNBC:
Recent Survey Says US Gas Prices Hit Record $3.79
The average retail price of a gallon of regular grade gasoline in the U.S. rose to a new record high as the cost of a barrel of crude oil price continued its ascent, an industry analyst said Sunday.
The U.S. average retail regular gasoline price rose to $3.7929 a gallon on May 16, up nearly 17 cents in the past two weeks, according to the nationwide Lundberg survey of about 7,000 gas stations.
In two areas – Chicago and New York’s Long Island – prices soared to an average of more than $4 a gallon for the first time, survey editor Trilby Lundberg said.
The gasoline price could rise to $4 a gallon on a national average basis, she forecast.
Steep drop in home prices may help economy
The bottom should be hit faster, experts say. But the U.S. may have to lean on other sectors for a recovery.
Most economists believe the worst is yet to come.
“I see absolutely no signs of a bottoming, either nationally or in the regions,” said Patrick Newport, who tracks the housing market for Global Insight, an economic forecasting firm in Lexington, Mass.
“Because the prices are going down so fast, we’ll be hitting the stabilization point sooner,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Assn. of Realtors.
“We didn’t get here quickly. There were years of excesses. And this won’t be resolved quickly,” Paulson said in remarks at a business luncheon. “Housing is the biggest risk to our economy,” he said.
Over the last year, index prices have fallen 12% to 14%, and Moody’s Chen thinks they have an additional 10% or 12% to go.
“I think we’re about halfway there,” she said.
Yun of the National Assn. of Realtors said prices of existing homes had fallen about 8.5% since their peak in the summer of 2006 and probably had 10% more to go. “Peak to trough, we’ll be looking at 20% or even greater,” he said.
“Do you want a slow bleed?” Lawler asked. “Wouldn’t it be nice to just get it over with? It might be that that’s what we’re seeing.”
Is this different Lawrence Yun or different NAR? Talking about 10% more drop in National Prices?
The housing terrorists have destroyed the real estate markets by supporting the credit crunch. Routinely, investors often cash out of properties to invest or spend and it now appears that the banks have reduced the LTV percentages they will work with. I had a friend attempt to get an equity line set up the other day and the damn bank said that it’s working with a 55% LTV on income property. How in the hell can someone borrow anything with that kind of restriction? This is a bunch of BS.
Someone had better do something or this economy is really heading down the crapper. You don’t just take away someone’s damn money like that. I’m absolutely livid at this.
If we let democrats win in the fall, things are going to get worse. They hate business and will do everything they can to prevent people from getting money. Obama has got to be hypnotizing people. He and the liberals can not be allowed to win in the fall. The press is biased towards Obama. All hs has to do is fart and they fall all over themselves fawning over him. He supposedly drew 80,000 fawning liberals to a rally in Oregon yesterday. Why don’t they report on the crowds McCain is drawing? Why do they always showm McCain by himself?
The liberal press is a big problems.
SG (26)-
“Because the prices are going down so fast, we’ll be hitting the stabilization point sooner,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Assn. of Realtors.
“Because I’ve fallen off such a high cliff, I will hit the ground faster and become a more spectacular puddle of goo,” said famous cartoon character, Wil E. Coyote.
N.J. Unemployment Rate up to 5 Percent
TRENTON — In April, New Jersey payrolls increased by 1,000 and the state’s unemployment rate edged higher by 0.2 percentage point to 5.0 percent equaling the United States rate which was down slightly from 5.1 percent in March.
Over the first four months of 2008, employment in New Jersey has followed the national trend, decreasing by 9,900 jobs; whereas nationally employment has declined by 260,000.
Tard (27)-
“The housing terrorists have destroyed the real estate markets by supporting the credit crunch.”
What credit crunch? I can take worthless securities to the window and get Treasury notes in return.
If you can turn sh*t into gold, there ain’t no credit crunch.
As long as you’re a bank, that is.
If you can turn sh*t into gold, there ain’t no credit crunch.
As long as you’re a bank, that is.
Where’s the investor’s damn money? They’ve cut off our money and that’s not right. It’s my damn money and I have a right to have it.
RE: If we let democrats win in the fall, things are going to get worse.
Whoa!!! All RE Bubble and Bust happened on Republican watch my friend. Republicans controlled congress and white house for most of last 8 years. On the contrary, Dems are working hard on bailouts. Without Dem’s proposals, housing would be dead.
Liberals, like those who populate this board, worked overtime to upend these housing markets. The coup de grace will come from a democrat controlled executive branch.
Tard (31)-
So you want to borrow real money, backed by the imaginary collateral of your declining equity?
Indeed, this is not a privilege, this is a right!
[sarcasm off]
All RE Bubble and Bust happened on Republican watch my friend. Republicans controlled congress and white house for most of last 8 years.
Ownership Society?
Debtor Society.
Lowes reports an 18% drop in profit, same-store sales down 8.4%.
Y’all miss me?
“Y’all miss me?”
patient,
Where have you been?
“Someone had better do something or this economy is really heading down the crapper.”
50.5,
Your President tried and got b*tch slapped by the Saudi’s. What in the world is going on? The most powerful nation in the world, bending over begging to the Saudi’s? A total embarrasment. You wonder why the dollar is in the tank? Why the hell do you make the trip to the Middle East? Why is Bush asking questions if he doesn’t know the answwer? Just a folly to the rest of the world.
What have I missed?
Oil at $40?
The last writedown?
Found the WMDs?
Housing hit bottom?
Greenspan’s Mea Culpa?
Capture of Bin Laden?
Minnie Minoso’s comeback?
Your President tried and got b*tch slapped by the Saudi’s. What in the world is going on? The most powerful nation in the world, bending over begging to the Saudi’s? A total embarrasment. You wonder why the dollar is in the tank? Why the hell do you make the trip to the Middle East? Why is Bush asking questions if he doesn’t know the answwer? Just a folly to the rest of the world.
That really pissed me off. We have protected the Saudi’s and they refuse to cut us a damn break? It is time to play some hard ball with those jerks. The damn Saudi’s wouldn’t be even getting the oil out of the ground if it wasn’t for us. We are their biggest damn customer and they want to disrepect us?
It may be time to support regime change in Saudia Arabia. We can have people disrespecting us with impunity. There has to be some payback.
Not even 830 & re 101 wants to topple the Saudis. Monday is getting off to a good start.
Democrat, Republican, blah blah…this isn’t a partisan issue. Both parties want to hurt us in some way.
Although I have no particular respect for the House of Saud, they did make a good point the other day — U.S. refineries are at peak capacity and could not refine more oil even if the Saudi’s acted against self interest and raised production even higher.
The problem is the low value of the dollar. When we were an exporting nation, and made nearly everything we needed, one could argue that a low dollar brought benefits. Now when we import so many basic goods, including energy — does everyone here know that the U.S. auto industry, for example, does not make a single wiring harness in this country — the low dollar only hammers families.
tbw [45],
I agree.
Re 45 – Not to worry, Hank Paulson said the other day he wants a strong dollar.
So 50.5 would happily send the army in, guns blazing, for the purpose of regime change in Saudi Arabia, as a result of the Saudis insulting Bush.
Reminds me of Duck Soup, the marx brothers movie, where Mrs. Teasdale asks groucho to meet ambassador Trentino of Sylvania and groucho immediately slaps him in the face proclaiming “this means war!”
<iWhere’s the investor’s damn money? They’ve cut off our money and that’s not right. It’s my damn money and I have a right to have it.
He is Grim’s alter ego – He can’t be real with statements like this.
Grim confess – it is you who post as reinvestor101 because nobody is that clueless.
As far as investors credit – thats why out of last 4 bhouses I placed an affer on 3 were either REO or short sales.
How about this: If you are investor, you are liable for balance on your loan no matter what will house sell for, and student loans rules apply – no discharge ever, unless you are dead!!!
#12 SG: But I thought we were still debating whether or not we were in a recession. We have been told it was not a recession, but rather a national economic slow down.
So now the recession that was not a recession, is a recession, but it will be over by September?
Well I believe that the recession that was not a recession, but really is a recession is just really getting started..
#14 Is Citi even hiring?
grim, #5
“special to the record” means a piece that was freelanced – that’s all.
“special” = non-staff
It’s a designation that came into being when newspapers were all union. Not sure if the Record is a union shop.
#27 rebailout:You don’t just take away someone’s damn money like that. I’m absolutely livid at this.
That is right you don’t take away our money with tax payer supported bailouts for cry baby homeowners and investors. L
et the housing market continue to fall. Free market capitalism at its best.
“He is Grim’s alter ego – He can’t be real with statements like this.”
Agree – he’s a spoof of a moron.
“patient, Where have you been?”
Work has been killing me.
Tard (42)-
“It may be time to support regime change in Saudia Arabia.”
Please wake me up when you’ve found the opposition underground in Saudi Arabia. Last I heard, opposing their gubmint is a good way to get one’s thumbs lopped off.
gefilte Says:
May 18th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
can anyone recommend a professional asbestos inspector (for a residence in clifton)?
g-fish: sorry…they are all dead…
Mike (43)-
I thought occupying Iraq was our solution to the Saudi/oil supply “problem”.
Credit crunch? Money is cheap now.
Patient
I take it you didn’t see the Extreme Home Makeover show in NOLA last night. THey did a church and a home. I’m not keen on the home but they did a beautiful job on the church.
It was brought to my attention yesterday and i’ve only started to take a look with very little success today, but Has anyone heard about first time NJ buyers being able to get a grant for up to $12,000 for a down payment or other? We have a down payment but it sure would be nice to add to it or not have to pay the closing costs :)
EHM homes seem to be turning into white elephants at a rapid pace. I’m hearing stories of these homes coming up for sale across the country. The reason is almost always the same, taxes and maintenance.
The same happened with the joke-that-is-the HGTV dream home give-away. Most all of these were sold at major discounts due to tax reasons. I believe only 1 or 2 of these actually remained occupied by the winner.
I guess EHM wouldn’t get nearly the ratings if they built modest, affordable homes for people.
re 56
Our noble reinvestor throws in his lot with Bin Laden. Strange bedfellows, then again maybe not so strange after all.
#27 – 55% LTV? Wow, looks like the banks are finally coming to their senses. How is this the Democrats fault?
# 48 “So 50.5 would happily send the army in, guns blazing, for the purpose of regime change in Saudi Arabia, as a result of the Saudis insulting Bush. ”
There is no need for us to topple the Saudi regime; the royal family there has no broad appeal and they have bought themselves peace by supporting its biggest opponents by paying them off. It would surprise very few, if the Wahibbi groups decided the time had come to depose the Saud family.
Just another reason to wean ourselves from the imported oil teat.
Clotpoll [from other thread],
I hope the hooligans punched Graydon’s daddy in the teeth and lit the stands on fire. lol!
61 Joey
Several banks were offering incentives. I don’t know if they still are. Some will offer grants depending on where you buy- some specific to the point of certain blocks only in certain neighborhoods. There are also income limits. The last ones I remember doing this were Citibank, Chase and BoA. I don’t know who’s offering what now, if anything. If you contact ACORN, they may have more info.
Good luck.
Thanks lost. We can only take advantage of being a first time buyer once so if it’s out there we may as well.
61…………Yeah the grant is called….”Hey I wanna own a home too! And I want a Pony Fund”….Fill out form D4353245 on the staet of NJ site.
Here is an example. You bought your home in 2006 for $500k with 100% financing using an 80/20 loan. So your first mortgage is 80% or $400k and your second mortgage is 20% or $100k. The market is down more than 20% from its peak and your house is now only worth $375k. This means if the house was sold, the first mortgage would take all $375k and the second mortgage would get nothing. In this case the second mortgage is “wholly unsecured” and the second clause of section 1322(b) does not apply, so we can modify the rights of the second mortgage holder and turn it into unsecured debt.
What happens to the now unsecured stripped off second mortgage? It gets paid in your Chapter 13 plan but only after your other secured debts are paid. Secured debts are the first mortgage, your property taxes, and your car payments. And because a Chapter 13 plan lasts only 3-5 years (usually 5) a whole lot of that unsecured debt does not get paid. At the end of 5 years, most unsecured debts (not student loans, back income taxes, or family support payments) are discharged so you don’t have to repay them.
So at the end of 5 years, you are left with just your just mortgage payment on your house. Your cars and your back property taxes are paid off, your student loans and back income taxes are paid down, but your second mortgage and your credit card debt is gone! Beautiful isn’t it? God bless the 80/20! It just keeps on giving.
http://www.sandiegopredatorylending.com/?p=38
Any truth to this?
My predictions for 2009
NAR will book REO Speedwagon to play at their annual conference.
We will adjust the border patrol to prevent mexicans from escaping back to mexcico once all their off the book jobs dry up.
Private Equity, Hedge Funds, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs will go to the Citigroup Garage Sale and buy their assets piece by piece for 40 cents on the dollar. Hey does anyone need a ten story tall Red Umbrella!!
Short Sales will be history. If no one is buying homes what is even the point of doing a short sale. Just foreclose and let RTC bang it out for 40% cents on a dollar.
From Yahoo Finance:
No Bottom in Sight: Home Prices to Fall Another 10-15 Percent, Says NYU Prof
Friday’s “stronger-than-expected” home construction data really wasn’t so strong. The bulk of April’s 8.2% rise came from apartments as single-family home construction hit a 17-year low.
In the accompanying video, I attempt to dig a little deeper under the surface of recent chatter about a “bottom” in housing with, Professor Lawrence J. White, deputy chair of the Economics Department at NYU’s Stern School and a former member of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board.
The current downturn is “much more serious” than past housing declines, Smith says, predicting another 10%-15% downside, on average, for national home prices over the next 6-to-12 months before any recover begins.
In other words, the housing market isn’t anywhere close to a bottom yet.
From MarketWatch:
Leading indicators rise for 2nd straight month
The U.S. economy is likely to remain weak, but is not in a recession, economists for the Conference Board said Monday after announcing that the index of leading economic indicators rose slightly in April for a second straight month.
The index, which attempts to forecast turning points in the economy, rose 0.1% in April, matching March’s gain after falling for the five prior months.
“These data certainly reflect a weak economy, but not one in recession,” said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the private research group. The small increases in March and April “could be a signal that the economy may not weaken further.”
The leading index is down at a 2.3% annual pace in the past six months. Four of the 10 leading indicators are stronger over that period.
The coincident index, which measures the current economy, was flat in April and is down at a 0.7% annual rate in the past six months. The coincident index has not risen since October. The four indicators in the coincident index are the same ones used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to judge whether the economy is in a recession.
“Economic activity is likely to remain weak in the near term,” the organization said.
In April, six of the 10 leading indicators increased: Stock prices, interest-rate spread, building permits, jobless claims, vendor performance and consumer-goods orders. Consumer expectations, factory work hours and orders for capital goods fell. The money supply was unchanged.
Illegal Immigration solved by housing bust:
We used to hire a cleaning lady who had come from South America and her husband worked in roofing.
Hubby cant find a job anymore and the family is moving back to their home country.
61…………Yeah the grant is called….”Hey I wanna own a home too! And I want a Pony Fund”….Fill out form D4353245 on the staet of NJ site.
Didn’t get any search hits on that form number on the state of nj site, but thanks anyway, i’ll keep looking. And i hate ponies.
#71 John:Hey does anyone need a ten story tall Red Umbrella!!
The umbrella trademark/logo was sold back to the Travellers Group Insurance Co about a year ago.
On who is at fault, dems or republicans.
The “on whose watch” debate is a logical fallacy. You really do yourself a disservice by offering it up. That is like blaming Bush for 9-11 when all evidence demonstrates that his presence at 1600 Penn was irrelevant. It makes you look stupid, and we are stupider for reading it. Just drop the “whose watch” stuff.
People did not make loans or buy houses because of who was president, or what party controlled Congress. To me, more telling is to look at economic factors leading to the run up in prices, and what caused them. Much of it was money looking for a home (no pun intended) after the tech bubble burst. It can literally be that simple. A goodly portion of the run up, IMHO, was due to the Clinton tax rule change exempting most cap gains from the sale of a primary residence. That just took the brakes off of speculative housing, as evidenced by all the late-night ads I saw over the years for property flipping lessons. This is about the only piece of federal legislation that I think had any significant bearing in the housing crisis. Now, anyone here wanna blame Clinton? From a tax policy perspective, some blame could be assigned.
As for regulators, they have been beating the drum about credit quality for many years, but have not had the tools to force banks to eschew certain loan products. I know this because I read the missives and had to reply to them.
Could Congress have acted? I suppose, but they have never been blessed with clairvoyance and blaming them for not acting is almost as idiotic as the “whose watch” argument. Further, what if they did try to impose new restrictions on subprime and exotic loan products, and people started getting denied loans? Folks would have exoriated them for cutting off their access to credit. When Georgia passed legislation on subprime, banks warned that credit in the state would dry up because the rating services would not rate the CDOs with GA loans in them. People went nuts and GA promptly unpassed the law.
If anyone else has something useful to offer on our housing debacle, other than who was in control when the sh1t hit the fan, I would be happy to hear it.
Sorry, I haven’t ranted in a while, and felt the need.
To me, the most important about turn is quote from NAR’s Lawrence Yun.
Yun of the National Assn. of Realtors said prices of existing homes had fallen about 8.5% since their peak in the summer of 2006 and probably had 10% more to go. “Peak to trough, we’ll be looking at 20% or even greater,” he said.
I guess he is getting pressure from Realtors that for them volume is important not price.
Can he send out broadcast email to all sellers on Realtor.com that prices will drop 10% this year.
Australian dollar hits 24-year high
By Peter Garnham
Monday May 19 2008 05:10
The Australian dollar rose to a 24-year high on Monday as rising commodity prices and a sell-off in the US dollar boosted the currency.
Analysts said growing appetite for risk in the past week had also supported the high-yielding Australian dollar.
This has pushed investors back into carry trades, in which low-yielding currencies such as the yen are sold to finance the purchase of higher-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar.
great the Yen carry trade is done. Got Gold?
#77- Nom
Dont you think that Bush pushing for an “Ownership” society led to Greenspan keeping the rates low for an inordinately long amount of time, thus leading to excess liquidity?
SG (78)-
“I guess he is getting pressure from Realtors that for them volume is important not price.”
When the repo truck’s hook goes into the S-Class is when Realtors figure out the market’s tanked. This is happening in greater numbers now. We shouldn’t be surprised that the rank-and-file are finally after the mouthpieces to put out a more realistic message.
However, NAR stands strongly behind Barney Frank and his hallucination of a bailout bill, so we’ve far from learned our lesson as an industry.
In fact, we’ve never learned the lesson and never will.
Dr. Lawrence Yun – Unplugged – Had Lunch with Bloggers.
Grim – We should invite him for a chat in next GTG.
Vic (80)-
Not to butt in on your conversation, but I’d prefer to think that the modern Fed regulates our economy by promotion and manipulation of asset bubbles. This activity has taken the place of meaningful monetary or fiscal policy.
Understanding the Fed these days is no more than an exercise in attempting to predict what asset bubble they will ignite next.
So what’s the deal with the new June 1 Fannie Mae low down-payment regulations? Would these mortgages be no-recourse (in New York)?
Yun of the National Assn. of Realtors said prices of existing homes had fallen about 8.5% since their peak in the summer of 2006 and probably had 10% more to go. “Peak to trough, we’ll be looking at 20% or even greater,” he said.
See this, kids? Read it closely. Are you reading this sellers?
It’s ok tubby Mary, calm down and have a drink. I know it’s hard but this is what’s called, “entering the acceptance” stage. Here, take this hanky…. everything will be alright.
I know… I know…. no need to explain, you’re only human. But Mary, honestly… a two-headed clown sculpture might be appealing to you but the majority of potential buyers don’t want to see that when they walk in the front door. And besides, you’re frightening the children.
Nom [77]
Well said. I will add that those who think that a D executive branch with a D congress is somehow going to right our economic course are completely naive, but more likey thye are just political hacks.
The only hope we have is McCain to win and beat back all of the nonsense spewing from congress via the veto. However, listening to McCain babble on the past few weeks I think thay may still be a boondoogle.
Vic-
An intriguing thought, but no, I don’t think that. I saw that as jawboning, pure and simple, and fed minutes don’t support it. There was no substantive legislative changes and it was an empty “initiative.” I doubt much filtered down to the Fed’s rate setting policy, and none filtered down to the regulatory level, near as I can figure. Further, recall that Clinton and Gore did just as much jawboning on that issue.
That said, I don’t dispute the possibility that Greenspan was channeling Arthur Burns, but there were enough other factors supporting Fed decision-making, such that even if it was in the front of Alan’s cranium, it had company and could not have been a causal factor.
Finally, I don’t see liquidity from the Fed as being an issue in the current crisis. The liquidity evaporated at the bank level and the fed has kept the spigots open (smarter minds than me, like NJP or ChiFi can disagree) so I don’t see that as a causal factor. Further, look to the reasons for liquidity and it had little to do with housing. In fact, there was so much liquidity at the bank level, that Citi, among others, was agitating to get rid of the GSEs.
Interesting thought though. Will have to see how history treats it.
# 82 I’d like to see LY show up in NJ to meet a group line this someplace at night. He’d have better luck with Paulie Walnuts,Big Pu$sy, and Tony Soprano.
#86 gary: Went to look at a house yesterday. Form the pictures it looked OK, althouh too small as it only had 2 bedrooms.
It has an enclosed front porch, form teh angle of th picture it looked to be a decent size, howver, upon seeing it, no bigger than a foyer.
The other half of the porch was converted into a first floor bathroon, however that bathroom was now in the living room. How delightful.
However the realtor, said and I quote the price is negogiatable, especially in this market.
It was refreshing to hear a realtor admit that things had changed, especially in my blue ribbon prestigious Bergen Co town.
It has an enclosed front porch, form teh angle of th picture it looked to be a decent size, howver, upon seeing it, no bigger than a foyer.
Is it me or are realtors now a days REALLY rockin’ the fish eye lense?
Hiring Freeze in place at Goldman.
#84 clot: 2 questions please. The new Fannie MAe down pymts that go into effect in June, have they lowered the credit score requiremetns too?
Do you think these new guideliens are going to make a difference one way or another?
3b,
When the realtor told you that the price was negotiable, you should’ve put on a real big naive face and played it up. :)
“Wow, Mr. Realtor, perhaps they’ll accept $5,000 under asking?”
# 92 Publicly announced?
# 89 “a group LIKE this one”
clot
“We shouldn’t be surprised that the rank-and-file are finally after the mouthpieces to put out a more realistic message.”
I would think it would be difficult for Joe Realtor to get a client to price appropriately when the NAR is telling Jane Seller that the market is just fine. The NAR was busy trying to fool the buyers, but instead they fooled the sellers.
rich in NNJ or grim,
is 240 paramus rd ridgewood still UC?
and, grim or clot,
close price for 53 pleasant run readington?
just curious.
BTW, had fun at work printing out Schiller’s HPI graph from 1890 til now and then the one from the 80’s til now. Alot of lightbulbs flickering on at that point but,
still got puzzled looks when I started in on CDOs and SIVs and MBSs….oh well.
sl
[87] JBJB,
I think that there is enough blame to go around, esp. when both parties are pandering to the same set of voters.
If Barney can sell this as a costless measure to get banks to absorb the loss themselves, it will coast. Of course, the gov also said the Iraq war would finance itself from oil flow . . .
#94 gary: Once I actually saw the hosue, I knew it would not meet my needs. And since he had the decency to admit that the party was over, there was no need to be confrontational with him.
However, if he had pulled the rah-rah cheerleading nonsense, I might have called him on it; especially since my wife was not there.
She does not let me get confrontational with Realtors, and she is probably right. What good does it do?
Her perfered method is to nod politely and say REALLY in an incredibly sarcastic tone. She has perfected this method.
It is really effective, by saying so little she appears to say so much.
I’m looking for some housing suggestions here.
My wife and I have been renting in Westfield for
a few years now, and she finally gave up all hope of ever owning there. It’s too expensive and too crowded. I work in Newark, so the commute was nice though.
Any thoughts on towns a little further out that might provide more value? I was looking into Bridgewater, but I have no opinion yet. How is the morning drive down 78? How is it for family life? How about other towns in that area?
We’re at the end of the housing rope now, and the fallback is Yardley, PA. Long commute, good lifestyle….
sl,
53 Pleasant closed at $899k
Where do I find how much someone owes on a mortgage?
thx grim!
sl
JBJB/Nom/victorian/etc
If I were looking for things to blame on politicians that have gone wrong over the course of the preceding decade, the RE bubble would be way down on my list.
I hate Alan Greenspan, and I resent the fact that the housing bubble occurred, but it wouldn’t even make my Top Ten list of politician-caused crap during the preceding decade.
PA to Newark? Ugh. Too crazy. I do Hunterdon to Bridgewater. That sucks enough.
101 Daddyo:
Bridgewater is built up, but has outliers of niceness.
Gets clogged traffic-wise.
I have my business here because it’s busy; I wouldn’t live here though. But then again, I don’t see my neighbors houses, and I like that. You may be different.
@101 (daddyo)
Try Nutley or Lyndhurst.
Repost from last night. I’m still curious, and it seems topical, given the headline:
Can someone with GSMLS access please give me the street address of MLS#2517313? It’s bank owned in prestigious Glen Ridge.
Many thanks.
Middletown and take the train up to Newark Penn?
Gator,
2517313 – 233 Baldwin
I’ve got a prior sale at $605k in July of 2005.
#98 Still looking
If you want fun with numbers and are interested in Ridgewood, have fun here.
http://www.ridgewoodnj.net/subdept_detail.cfm?sub_dept_id=74&dept_id=2
sl,
240 is *still* UC..
Last post b4 I go:
A recap of how realtors play the “aversion to loss game”…
I drove by some commercial properties. The ones I was interested in, I made appts to see.
One I looked at was empty. During our drive-by, we parked, and peeked inside. (empty warehouse)… alarm had been beeping offline, not an alarm going off, but an error saying it was offline.
A WEEK LATER, we meet with agents and go in (again :) Listing agent tells us bldg is really popular, tons of people looking at it in the past week… babbling on like this as he opens the door, looks at the alarm keypad with a quick puzzled look and then SHUTS IT OFF.
Silenced for the 1st time in AT LEAST a week.
Really.
#108 – We ruled out the Montclair’ish area as too crowded, we tend to need at least a little bit of space.
And grim, I’m not sure we can do the shore, but I could broach the topic with her.
Where do I find how much someone owes on a mortgage?
Public records will only provide the initial mortgage amount. You can use an amortization calculator to attempt to determine the current balance, but that assumes no prepayments, etc. The only place that number would be published would be on the notice to sell (Sheriff Sale) as the judgement amount.
24 grim
“Banks and securities firms, reeling from record losses resulting from the collapse of the mortgage securities market, are failing to acknowledge in their income statements at least $35 billion of additional writedowns ”
That CAN’T be true!!! bi and S&P said there would be no more writedowns!!! bi, tell ’em it isn’t true!
bi?
bi???
HI
I saw in the realitytrack a house bank owned in west orange that I am interested in buying
I would like to contact a realter expert in buyng REOS or someone with knowledge to help me
Any reccomnedations?
Thanks, Grim. Now listed at $483,900. Ouch. I thought it couldn’t happen here.
@daddyo
Unless you’re willing to accept a grueling commute to Newark each day, finding a fair amount of space at a reasonable price is going to be difficult.
If you’re willing to take the train, then perhaps consider Denville, Stanhope, Ledgewood, Mt. Olive, Mine Hill, Kenvil, etc. Just a short drive from the Dover train station.
HI
I saw in the realitytrack a house bank owned in west orange that I am interested in buying
I would like to contact a realter expert in buyng REOS or someone with knowledge to help me
Any reccomnedations?
I was considering West Orange until i saw the taxes. $300,000 house but it’s taxes were $12,000!!
grim,
which public record source is best to find initial mortgage amount?
What county?
Gator essex is reo trouble territory, the obscene taxes make banks very eager to get rid of the property. Be wary of the taxes 10-12k on a 400k home is insane.
jcer,
I’m not kidding, nearly EVERY house i saw in the $300-325,000 range was AT LEAST 10-12K, nuts…
I am looking for initial loans in Bergen. I have used the taxrecords site and sometimes houses dont even come up with latest sold info.
I typically use the njactb monmouth county record searcher when looking for comps no matter what countly I am looking in.
I would also be interested in Union and Essex too.
Why do you think WO inventory is so high?
West Orange Active Listings – GSMLS
April 2005 – 263
April 2006 – 307
April 2007 – 407
April 2008 – 447
I know that the taxes are very high, but my other option is Livingston NJ, taxes are much lower but the houses average 170k, or 200k more expensives.
And b/c of the high taxes,maybe we can get a better price
Any reccomenndations, I need a expert realtor in REOS, or someone with knowleadge
On the affluent North Shore in Nassau, from Kings Point to Laurel Hollow, north of the Long Island Expressway and Route 25, buyers in the first quarter, on average, paid 13.4 percent less than sellers’ last asking prices, nearly four percentage points higher than in the same quarter last year, according to a report by Miller Samuel, a Manhattan appraisal firm, for Prudential Douglas Elliman. The number of homes sold there fell by 14 percent compared with the first quarter of 2007.
125 jcer – Not interested in the property, just curious. It looks like it has a bad location abutting the tracks of the defunct Boonton Line.
It was just assessed at 557,600 in the recent reval, where the town had been underassessing almost every property. My guess is that the assessors couldn’t inspect because it was bank owned. The house next door sold for 635k in July 2006, yet was only assessed at 475,900.
Taxes are currently over 12k and will be going UP due to the high assessment.
I wonder what the bank will eventually get for it?
shuck,
Check your email.
http://www.cemeteryspot.com/blog/?p=174&ref=patrick.net
Now this is a RE Blog for long term RE investors.
128 Grim – People trying to bail out/cash out before the collapse? The market in WO went up quite a bit, when folks who were priced out of Montclair/Millburn/South Orange bought there instead.
I also think they are due sometime soon for a property tax revaluation.
# 117 “Public records will only provide the initial mortgage amount. You can use an amortization calculator to attempt to determine the current balance, but that assumes no prepayments, etc. The only place that number would be published would be on the notice to sell (Sheriff Sale) as the judgement amount.”
The other way to find out the outstanding mortgage amount is to get a credit report on the owner. This can take some doing, but can be done.
thx again, grim
sl
Interesting:
The Top of the Class
Public schools are ranked according to a ratio devised by Jay Mathews: the number of Advanced Placement, Intl. Baccalaureate and/or Cambridge tests taken by all students at a school in 2007 divided by the number of graduating seniors. All of the schools on the list have an index of at least 1.000; they are in the top 5 percent of public schools measured this way.
NJ has 1 school in the top 100…, and 3 more in 100-200…
http://www.newsweek.com/id/39380
I love the VERY SOLID LIQUIDITY statement.
Lennar Corp., the largest homebuilder in the U.S., lost another notch on its corporate rating from Standard & Poor’s after losing investment-grade status in November. The new BB rating affects $2.2 billion in unsecured notes.
S&P said Miami-based Lennar has “very solid liquidity” although there is “limited clarity with regard to the timing of a cyclical trough.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Bill Rochelle in New York at
PGC (113),
That’s a great link. It allows those without MLS access to a quick comp by school district (which seems to be buzz word in this town).
# 122
Ouch! If anyone saw the 60 Minutes segment on Bon Jovi, it showed his house. I know the property and it, and the associated “farm” has a total tax bill of about $30,600. I doubt the house you were looking at came close to being 40% the house of his.
Too many towns in NJ have taxes that are just out of wack.
Long Island has 5 in the top 67, wait a minute, Long Island is not a state so how did it beat all of NJ.
Looked at a house in Wayne yesterday. Asking price was 550K and taxes were 15K. Something has to give.
# 142 The whole asking price to current tax issue is something that bugs me. I love when I see a house where the asking price is “X” and the taxes are “Y” but the assessed value (in a full valuation town” is 1/3X or 1/2X. As soon as the house sells for anything above the current assessed value, the taxes are going to rise. Thee should be some requirement to report estimate of new taxes based on asking price and millage for the town.
Not true, Shore Guy (143). The town cannot change the assessment until the town undergoes a revaluation, or if permits are filed for renovations.
We bought our house in 2004 for $480k. It was assessed for $208k. Our assessment didn’t change until last year, when our town was ordered to undergo a revaluation.
Now on the other hand, if your house was assessed for more than your purchase price, you’d be smart to do some legwork and file a
tax appeal in order to lower your assessment and taxes.
Most towns go many years between reassessments/revaluations. The state monitors sales price to assessment ratios to determine averages and towns are ordered to revalue property if the large deviations from the commone level ratio are seen.
Interesting enough in Nassau County Long Island they do an annual assessment and what you paid for your house counts very little. They do it all based on comps. If you overpaid it can be assessed for less and if you underpaid it can be assessed for more.
144/5 In a perverse sort of way, I suppose that is good.
NJGator is correct my parents house was assessed at 380k from 89 when they bought it till 2004 when it was reassessed to 1.1 million, the towns cannot reassess unless they reassess the whole town. In Essex though the tendency is not to reassess but raise the tax rate.
I concur that that house in glen ridge has a terrible location. Close to the train and the seedy parts of Montclair and Bloomfield.
I think the bank will be sucking wind on that one dependent on condition I would think 399k. Taxes in glen ridge are tough, in WO though I think if and when they reval and if that Edison Village project takes off taxes will go down some. I mean how could a town that has diversified ratables(unlike glen ridge, only residential) and not have super excellent schools or any other justifiable expenses have taxes so much higher than neighboring Essex towns.
I hate NJ.
147 jcer – I suspect that folks in neighborhhods like Upper Gregory that saw big price appreciations during the bubble are in for a nasty surprise. Hopefully the market collapses enough before their reval (2 years from now) to lessen any potential increases.
Would someone recommend a similar blog for monitoring real estate in Florida; and, if specifics matter, Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area? Thank you.
Grim
Thank you for the email
shuck,
Just keep in mind that RealtyTrac data has a tendency to be stale.
Not to mention that you can the same data for free (and faster), if you take the time to do it yourself.
Spring has sprung and it’s a great time to buy in the Pascack Valley and Bergen County area. Buyers beware – don’t wait until the market returns to a Seller’s market.
Buyers who are waiting for the return to a Seller’s Market may be surprised to find they missed the boat.
The above is from a realtor’s web site can some one (gary your help is always appreciated on these things, as I know you speak fluent realtorese),translate this portion for me:
Buyers who are waiting for the return to a Seller’s Market may be surprised to find they missed the boat.
From the Star Ledger:
Lawmakers use $260 million in budget for unemployment fund deficit
State lawmakers this morning advanced legislation that would head off a business tax increase by steering at least $260 million into the account that covers unemployment checks for laid off workers.
The bill won unanimous approval today from the Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee. It would use $260 million in surplus funds from the current state budget to shore up the state’s Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund.
Employers and workers pay for the trust fund through a payroll deduction. Last month, battered by rising unemployment claims and the effects of a string of state budget diversions, the fund’s balance dropped to about $161 milllion — about enough to cover benefits for four weeks.
Without the legislation and bailout, state law would require an automatic $350 million increase on July 1 in the tax businesses pay into the fund.
“In these tough economic times this is a good bill, not to add taxes on our employers,” said Sen. Paul Sarlo (D-Bergen).
Lawmakers acknowledged the $260 million proposed for the bailout may not be enough to offset rising claims against the fund.
patient (97)-
Getting a client to price right is tied directly to the agent’s willingness to walk away from the listing.
sl (98)-
$899,000.
GTG
<I/injpatient Says:
May 19th, 2008 at 9:01 am
“He is Grim’s alter ego – He can’t be real with statements like this.”
Agree – he’s a spoof of a moron.
For the umpteenth damn time, I am very real. There are no ghosts typing my posts and I am NOT Grim. For the umpteenth damn time, I am here to ensure that there’s some balance to the rampant liberalism and “chicken little sky is falling” type of talk that is frequently distilled here.
You on the other hand, appear to be a damn lawyer; a profession that has added a lot of costs to what I do and to the economy in general. Liberal lawyers present a deadly threat to the American body politic and to the economy.
Sir,
From reading your posts, it seems it is you who have taken the “chicken little sky is falling” stance.
I believe many here are quite happy with the process of a free market correcting itself by the downward movement in prices.
I got my economic stimulus check over the weekend. I don’t plan on spending it on anything, it’s merely taking back what I’ve already given to the govt.
If anything, it’ll come in handy in December when baby #2 is born.
-Richie
3b Says:
May 19th, 2008 at 9:00 am
That is right you don’t take away our money with tax payer supported bailouts for cry baby homeowners and investors. Let the housing market continue to fall. Free market capitalism at its best.
No one is taking your money. Stop bellyaching. What I want to know is when you will stop being so damn cheap. I’ve never seen a bank being pulled behind a hearse, so you can allow yourself to begin buying what other people consider to be necessities (and what you consider to be luxuries). Stop squeezing the damn Charmin and try buying some. Corn production is tight enough with demands of ethanol. We don’t need additional demands on production because you refuse to buy Charmin while squeezing every penny until it screams.
#159 rehandout: Get over yourself creampuff.
From Bloomberg:
Bush Stresses He Won’t Back Bill to `Bail Out’ Housing Lenders
President George W. Bush reinforced his opposition to legislation pending in Congress that aims to help struggling borrowers avoid foreclosure.
“Our policy in this administration is laws shouldn’t bail out lenders, laws shouldn’t help speculators,” Bush said after receiving a briefing on the housing and credit markets from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
“The government ought to be helping creditworthy people stay in their homes,” Bush said.
The Democratic-controlled Congress is at odds with Republicans and the White House over plans to reduce foreclosures in the worst housing slump in 25 years.
…
Both Bush and Paulson have opposed the House bill. Bush says it would reward irresponsible lenders and borrowers at taxpayer expense.
3b (93)-
To answer your question, I went straight to my Wachovia account executive.
According to her response, the following changes now apply to Desktop Underwriter 7.0 and the new uniform Fannie DP rules:
1. No benefit given for MI.
2. Debt-to-income (DTI) cap is being reduced.
3. Neg Am ARMs are out of scope.
4. Collection accounts will play a larger role in qualification decisions.
5. Loans with excessive DTI are no longer in play.
6. No MI insurer will touch a loan with DTI over 50%.
7. Borrowers with foreclosure due to mismanagement will require 5 years of re-established credit; 3 years with documented extenuating circumstances.
8. Borrowers with deed-in-lieu require 3 years’ established credit. Pre-foreclosure or short sale require 2 years.
9. Any borrower with a prior foreclosure will need anywhere between 10-20% additional down payment.
I’d say the credit requirements are tighter.
I’d also say the new Fannie DP rules will have little-to-no effect on the market in general.
#162rebuttwipe: Give it a rest with the toliet tissue. Is this all you got?. Seriously if it is an attempt to be humorous, the attempt is sorely lacking.
House prices are falling, get over it. Stop looking for handouts, welfare for underater homeowners/investors like yourself.
A good read:
Debt, Dilution, Default and Denial
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MER-lehman-buffett-C-citigroup-merrill/index/a/17212
#165 Clot: Well that does not sound like it will help stop the drop in prices.
Looks to me like it will only cause an acceleration in the price drops.
3b [154],
Yes, I can interpret that phrase. It means “I didn’t really read what was written as my only priority is bilking another idiot for a cut at the commission and it was oh so easy a few years ago when fools were a plenty and all I had to do was list the house and the money rolled in.”
That’s what it means.
#169 gary: Thank you. Your mastery of that foreign and compelx language is extraordinary.
Anectdotal story:
I was talking to a friend who is looking to buy his first condo/coop in Brooklyn. He was looking to carry a mortgage of approx. 600k. So he squarely sits in the “old” jumbo mortgage category and would fall in the new “conforming” category for this region. He told me the rate he is prequal with a under 6% interest rate. So it seems that people are being prequalified for the new conforming standards. I remember previously reading posts that people are not.
3b,
Why, thank you. And by the way, did you know that my dog can smell a realtor 3 blocks away?
162 repossessed101
“You on the other hand, appear to be a damn lawyer; a profession that has added a lot of costs to what I do and to the economy in general.”
Not to mention we put Bush in office. You’re welcome!!
#172 Bullsh!t Hound?
Re101 read 164. Does that blow your mind?
“The Democratic-controlled Congress is at odds with Republicans and the White House over plans to reduce foreclosures in the worst housing slump in 25 years.
…
Both Bush and Paulson have opposed the House bill. Bush says it would reward irresponsible lenders and borrowers at taxpayer expense”
reinvestor101 – any thoughts on this? Barney Frank and co. are valiantly and patriotically trying to rescue the American Housing Patriots and George Bush and co. are evildoers who are housing terrorists for stopping them?
How would you characterize this?
#176 njpatient: Yes and Barney Frank is of course a Liberal. And yet it is a Liberal who is the standard bearer for recrybaby’s handout.
#176 njpatient:How would you characterize this?
Oh and I would like to add, now you are asking recrybaby to think. And that is going to be very problematic.
I’ve got a question – will high rents put a floor under home prices in this area???
How would you price a house if there was no comps sold in the town within last 6 month?
And iof there was 8 sales closed this year, and 18 undr contract right now – while there are 125 homes listed for sale?? I went the only way I can come up with – based on equivalent rents in the area.
Couple of short sales right now listed at 2004 (0% appreciation) prices, and it is the same to rent as it is to buy them at these prices (Granted, with 10% downpayment).
last question – if house liasted for 300K as short sale, and say all offers are subject to bank approval – does this mean that bank will approve 300K??
Is it normal for seller to pre-negotiate the price or did he just pick a random number to get people interested?
#172 gary:that my dog can smell a realtor 3 blocks away?
Does he bite them?
if house liasted for 300K as short sale, and say all offers are subject to bank approval – does this mean that bank will approve 300K??
No
3b,
No, he has no teeth.
Tard (159)
What’s with the anger against lawyers? No law school wanted you? Too difficult to fill in the little circle with a pencil on the LSAT?
Ridgewood
SOLD 341 E GLEN AVE $655,000 10/30/2007
2820495
ACTIVE 341 E GLEN AVE $629,000 5/19/2008
grim 174,
yes!
Delanco, NJ…. Effective Monday May 19th 2008 Jevic Transportation, Inc, a less-than-truckload transportation services provider, is discontinuing operations. They are headquartered in Delanco, NJ.
Although the company will not be making pick-ups, a company spokesperson has said they are running a delivery operation until all freight “in our system is delivered”.
“We owe that to the many loyal customers who have been the backbone of Jevic over the last 27 years,” says Pete Robinson, director of marketing and corporate communications. “Our customers were what drove us and made Jevic the market innovator in freight transportation.”
Since going private two years ago, the company worked diligently to bring the company back to strong profitability.
In April, Jevic aggressively realigned the organization to improve costs and improve efficiencies. The realignment was going as planned and freight delivery costs were improving.
“Sadly, escalating fuel costs, higher insurance costs, a slowing economy and, ultimately a tightening of the credit market were to much for us to overcome, “ Robinson says. “It’s a sad day for everyone here in Delanco and around the country.”
With this action approximately 1,500 employees are no longer employed
RE101:
Time to give up on the bailout plan until November. Then President Obama will give you the money that you need so you can stop crying like a little girl. Until then, please place this in your internet favorites in case you need a bailout…
http://walkawayplan.com/
Keep the faith my brother!
Hehehe,
Thanks for that link.
Escape from NJ Says:
May 19th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Tard (159)
What’s with the anger against lawyers? No law school wanted you? Too difficult to fill in the little circle with a pencil on the LSAT?
Please. The LSAT and the Bar are really no big deal when compared to other graduate school or professional exams.
I hate lawyers simply because they legislate themselves jobs and add an unnecessary and unwanted cost to doing business or anything else in this damn country. Hell, I can’t even fart without someone threatening to sue or regulate me.
if house liasted for 300K as short sale, and say all offers are subject to bank approval – does this mean that bank will approve 300K??
So if you offer full asking price, a preapproval, and no contingencies the bank might turn you down anyhow?
Just noticed the NASDQ drop like a rock. Any specific reason?
Anyone hear a rumor that Sears is going belly up? I find it hard to believe myself, but at this state in the economy I don’t doubt anything. It would be a shame though – they’ve been an American Institution for a century now. Personally I like browsing the tool section – everything else…meh.
I don’t have a solid source for the info, just hearsay, but wanted to see if anyone on the board heard.
reinvestor101 Says:
May 19th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Hell, I can’t even fart without someone threatening to sue or regulate me.
No wonder you’re full of $hit.
All Hype Says:
May 19th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
RE101:
Time to give up on the bailout plan until November. Then President Obama will give you the money that you need so you can stop crying like a little girl. Until then, please place this in your internet favorites in case you need a bailout…
http://walkawayplan.com/
Keep the faith my brother
You know, YoMama seems to be a nice guy and it certainly will take a while to work up the sort of hate and disdain that we have for the Clintons, but it will be worked up nonetheless and he won’t see the light of day in the oval office. You’ve not seen our machine in action this election season. We will stop him and the other liberals. We can’t afford YoMama and the democrats in office.
My dog can smell pizza three blocks away
“Bush Stresses He Won’t Back Bill to `Bail Out’ Housing Lenders”
Good thing Bush has only 7 months left, President Obama will give us the bail-out we need. Long live subprime lenders and borrowers. Let the tax payers pay our bills.
RE101:
OK, cut off your nose to spite your face. No Obama, no bailout. Ok by me. I think I should be a McCain supporter.
Just to let you know, all your conservative boys in Washington are losing special elections left and right. Get ready for a 55-45 majority for the terrorists in the Senate and a commanding 40+ seat advantage for the terrorists in the house come November.
When the Clinton loving public puts a ass-cracking on your beloved conservatives come November, I am going to laugh my ass off. Why, not cause I am a liberal (I am a registered Rebublican) but because the man in the White House has totally ruined the finances of this country. Do not be fooled, people’s eyes are wide open about the economy now.
Hehehe,
LOL! :)
Obama stole his spot in order to be Senator and now he wants to raise our taxes and ban the sale of pork products in public schools. Plus his wife is just a tad to0 uppidity for me. Other than that I think he would make a great presidental candidate in any Middle Eastern County.
reinvestor #27: Maybe because McCain isn’t drawing big crowds? Maybe it’s because McCain has alienated those who respected him for doing what he thinks is right because he’s been sucking up to the American Taliban like Hagee and Parsley? Maybe it’s because conservatives hate him? As for the alleged media love affair with Obama, what media love affair? You mean the one that obsessed about six seconds of what his pastor said years ago? The one that obsesses about whether he wears a flag pin and whether he’s a secret Muslim manchurian candidate? You mean THAT media? Aside from the Randi Rhodes show, which doesn’t even air in New York, I don’t know ANY media that isn’t in love with either Hillary Clinton (Air America) or John McCain (everyone else).
From MarketWatch
How’s the recession going?
Analysis: Lost jobs, falling wages signal mild downturn in economy
Ninety percent of consumers, 56% of economists and 0% of White House advisers say the U.S. economy is in or near a recession.
That’s a lot of opinions. What do the facts say?
The most relevant statistics show the economy has been contracting for several months. If the downturn continues, it’ll probably be called a recession.
The official call will come months from now from a group of academic economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research, based on their definition of a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real gross domestic product, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
All five of the key indicators used by the NBER researchers are below their peaks.
The index of coincident indicators, which includes four of the five indicators, has not risen since October, although it was flat in April, leading the economists at the Conference Board to conclude that the economy is weak, but not in a recession.
The Conference Board was probably too optimistic, as we’ll see.
(More analysis on the points below at the link above)
Paycheck indicator
…
(Payrolls have fallen at an annual rate of 0.5%… / After adjusting for inflation, real average weekly wages are down 1%…)
Business side is weak, too
…
(Industrial production peaked in January, fallen 4.9% annual pace… / Total business sales have plunged at a 7% annual rate…)
If the evidence shows a recession, it’s a mild one. Typically, employment in a recession falls by 2 million, incomes drop by at least 1%, industrial production sinks about 4% and business sales fall 5%.
Just because it’s a mild recession doesn’t mean there’ll be a quick recovery, however. Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics say that the economy probably won’t return to its potential growth rate of about 2.75% for four more quarters, despite a huge amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus.
#193 sas: A Shame how that store has declined. My understanding of the Sears/K-mart merger a few years ago.
Was that if the merger did not work no big deal, as the head of the new company (whose name I do not rememebr) was of the opinion that the real estate owned by the combined companies was worh more than the actual business.
That statement never made sense to me.
All Hype.
You must be Tom Davis, you a damn turncoat. How the hell can you let the dem’s get in office without a fight?
I gotta run to a meeting now. I’ll be back with more to say to your turncoat azz.
http://www.maltzauctions.com/estate_detail.php?ID=384446
great bankruptcy auction, 4 dunkin donuts
3b,
It is Eddie Lampert. Hedge fund dude. At the time he was absolutely right as the deal went through right at the beginning of the RE bubble. Now…not so much.
Obama is like the black JFK, the media loves him and never asks the tough questions. The whole world hates hillery and the fact McCain ditched his sick first wife and married a young rich women makes him kind of slimey.
BTW now that Obama ditched his current religion does he even have one?
I gotta run to a meeting now. I’ll be back with more to say to your turncoat azz.
LOL!!!! I cannot wait….
just what we need tommy bahama (obama)and
the wife. Her head bobs back and forth just
like , well you know the rest.
patient (55)-
“Agree – he’s a spoof of a moron.”
Calling Tard a moron is an insult to morons.
#195- Why “Obama” has to be referred to “YoMama”?? Underlying racists joke??
My friends parents are lifelong Republicans. They won’t vote for McCain because they think he spent too much time at the Hanoi Hilton and are afraid he will “go all Manchurian Candidate on us”.
If he can’t even win the old republicans in Ocean County, he’s toast.
#209
Rush goes off the air at 3 and now we get to enjoy your post.
Free Republic down?
Underlying racists joke
You misspelled overt.
Tard (195)-
“You’ve not seen our machine in action this election season. We will stop him and the other liberals. We can’t afford YoMama and the democrats in office.”
Watch out, Tard. McCain isn’t going to be handing out bailout cash at the inauguration. At least with Obama and Barney the Purple Congressman, you might be getting a check or two.
Funny…we can’t afford Obama; yet somehow McCain, his pillhead, recipe-plagizarizing wife and his (shrinking) retinue of ethics-challenged lackeys are prefectly acceptable?
take it any way you want arr elle or what ever you want to do
SAS / 3B,
Not surprised about Sears. They haven’t changed their business model in years.
Also, everyone assumed it was Sears “rescuing” K-mart due to competition from Walmart. But from what I heard it was more of K-mart buying Sears then the other way around. They call it a merger but in all mergers there is always the stronger hand, it’s never equal.
wow, check this out:
“Edith Wharton: Battle to save The Mount”
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/features/edith-wharton-battle-to-save-the-mount-830627.html
SAS
Does anyone know who Obama plans to pick as his VP?
#206 hehe: What does he do with all those big box Sears stores in all the mall, sell them to other big box stores, that are already there?
It may have made more sense at that ime than now, but you are right, it does not make any sense now.
Especially given that we are now in a recession that is not a recession that actually is a recession that will be over in Sept
Does anyone know who Obama plans to pick as his VP?
Ahmadinejad.
Hannity told me it’s a lock.
Thank you Mark for you input 8-)
It may have made more sense at that ime than now, but you are right, it does not make any sense now.
In the vein, what’s the story with the Bergen Mall expansion? It looks like it’s going to be as big as Garden State Plaza when all is said and done.
“Does anyone know who Obama plans to pick as his VP?”
Zbigniew Brzezinski
And Obama talks about “change”
ha ha.. total joke.
if you all dont know Zbigniew Brzezinski, and are a Obama supporter, I highly suggest you get to know this person.
Like I’ve said on these boards before, ain’t a dime worth of difference between candidates, Republicans & Democrats.
Hope you enjoy oatmeal!
SAS
Zbigniew Brzezinski won’t ever be VP, but he OWNS Obama.
SAS
#214 Thanks schabadoo, actually it was more overt than underlying. Let’s move on. 8-)
From WSJ:
Thomson Reuters to Cut 1,500 Jobs
As Company Combines Operations
NEW YORK — Thomson Reuters Corp. will cut 1,500 jobs as the newly combined financial and professional information provider moves to consolidate operations and reduce costs, a person familiar with the matter said Monday.
Thomson Reuters had been widely expected to eliminate overlaps between the companies and make cut jobs following Thomson Corp.’s acquisition of Reuters Group PLC on April 17.
Thomson, a Canadian company that sells legal, professional and market information, paid about $15.8 billion to acquire Reuters, a London-based financial news and information company. The cuts represent about 3% of Thomson Reuters’ global work force of about 50,000.
The person familiar with the situation, who asked to remain anonymous since there was no formal announcement of the job cuts, said the layoffs would be completed by the end of the year, and include about 140 editorial positions. The person would not say where the job cuts were planned.
Thomson and Reuters have several areas of overlap, including some news operations as well as services that provide earnings estimates for publicly traded companies. The company had said on May 1 when it reported earnings that it expected to see annual cost savings of up to $1 billion by the end of 2010, earlier than had been previously expected.
In addition to financial news and data, the company is also a major information provider to the legal, medical, tax and accounting professions.
The Mother of All Rip-offs
“Get Ready For A Real Hosing”
By Mike Whitney
11/02/08 “ICH” — — Low interest credit and “financial innovation” are a deadly-combo. They’ve knocked the banking system for a loop, clogged the credit markets with billions of dollars of subprime sludge, and left the real estate market sprawling on the canvas. Still—even though $2 trillion of capitalization has been wiped-out from falling home prices; and even though the financial system is in a terminal state of paralysis—no one has been held accountable. In fact, not one trader, mortgage lender, rating’s-agency official, fund manager, or investment banker has been indicted or charged with criminal wrongdoing.
NOT ONE. The system operates without rules or guard rails. It’s the Wild West!
The system is so thoroughly marinated in corruption, that every trace of regulatory-oversight has been removed. The SEC is little more than a public relations sham loaded with business-friendly sycophants who try to sustain the publics confidence while kow-towing to their corporate paymasters. It’s a complete hoax. Last week, the Chairman of the SEC, Christopher Cox, gave a speech at the Ronald Reagan Building. He said:
“We’ve already launched an initiative in this area to investigate possible fraud or breaches of fiduciary duty involving collateralized debt obligations. Among the issues confronting us this year will be determining whether bank holding companies and securities firms made proper disclosure in their filings and public statements of what they knew about their CDO portfolios and their valuations. We’ll determine whether brokers carefully followed suitability requirements when they sold complex debt-related derivatives that shortly afterward went bad. And in this area, as elsewhere, we’ll be investigating whether unscrupulous insiders used non-public information to bail out of these securities or to sell them short, in violation of the securities laws.”
Huh? So, after 6 years of sitting on the sidelines watching the fat-cat investment banks and hedge funds sell dodgy securities, (comprised of mortgages from unemployed thrift-store workers with bad credit) Cox has finally decided to “to investigate possible fraud or breaches of fiduciary duty.”
What a joke. Trillions of dollars have been lost, the financial system is reeling, and the nation is headed into recession. We want scalps—not excuses!
Did Cox know that the CDOs, the MBSs, the ABCP and the rest of the alphabet soup of “structured investments” were unalloyed garbage?
Yes, of course, he did. Everyone knew. But they were making so much money selling snake oil to credulous investors they couldn’t help themselves. They went ape. Two week’s ago TV investment guru, Jim Cramer, even admitted that he and his business buddies used to call the investors who bought these sketchy “debt pools” “morons” and Bozos”. That says it all, doesn’t it?
Does Cox expect us to believe that he and his Keystone Cops at the SEC didn’t know what was going on?
Bullshoes!
Here’s a video clip from the Daily Show with Jon Stewart with CNN’s personal finance editor, Gerri Willis. Willis explains in simple terms how the subprime fiasco evolved. She acknowledges that the loans were made to “people who really couldn’t afford to pay them off” and that when “Wall Street saw how successful they were, they decided to sell them as investments all around the world”. Good thinking, eh? She even admits that the sellers knew that the investments were rotten but duped their customers by saying “Trust us” . Unfortunately, the naive investors found out later that “they were sold swampland in Texas”. (Watch the whole video at: http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=148477&title=gerri-willis)
This is a great summary of a how millions of investors were ripped off in broad daylight by crafty junk-bond salesmen while the SEC looked the other way. It may turn out to be the biggest heist of the century. Trillions of dollars were raked in on complex investments that (apparently) everyone in the industry knew were worthless. This is fraud on an industrial-scale.
And that’s just the beginning. The same gaggle of investment sharpies who cooked up the subprime swindle are putting the final touches on a plan to off-load hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgage-backed slop onto the American taxpayer. If they succeed, the country’s biggest GSE’s—Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—will be crushed by the expanded debt-load and probably go belly-up within the year.
Don’t believe me?
Bush’s new “Stimulus Package will allow Fannie and Freddie to raise their loan limits from $417,000 to $729,750.The idea is to keep interest rates as low as possible on new mortgages in order to revive the moribund California and New York housing markets. Jumbo loans—mortgages that are over $417, 000—-are nearly impossible to get now that the market for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) has dried up and the banks have tightened up their lending standards. Sales in California have dropped 40% or more for the last 4 months. Price declines are in double digits. It is a housing Depression.
Still, there’s no guarantee that the plan will work. After all, Fannie Mae requires a substantial down payment as well as documentation of earnings and a good credit record. The whole lending environment has changed dramatically in the last year. It’s gotten a lot tougher and the pool of potential loan applicants has shrunk considerably. Besides, how many people are going to plunk down $700,000 for a home in a falling market? That same MacMansion might dip to $625,000 by the end of the year. No one wants to take a bath like that.
More importantly, why should taxpayers have to guarantee a $700,000 loan just so some brandy-swindling tycoon can get a better deal on his mortgage? That’s nuts.
Here’s how Sean Olender sums it up in an article in the SF Gate:
“Thanks to Congress, junk bond investors will be able to pawn off their bad debt to Fannie and Freddie, instead of suing the big investment houses for ripping them off. This shift will certainly doom Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, so don’t be surprised if we, the taxpayers, have to bail out poor Fannie and Freddie – to the tune of more than $1 trillion….Why more than $1 trillion? If Goldman Sachs is correct in its recent projections that home prices in California are going to drop 35 to 40 percent, the state’s losses alone would top $2 trillion, because California has a disproportionate number of jumbo loans.”(”Stimulus Plan a Scam to Benefit the Rich”, Sean Olender)
Olender’s right. It’ll cost at least a trillion bucks; and for what? To lend a hand to the bond-hucksters who misrepresented themselves so they could pay off their vineyard in Provence? No way. This is all backwards. It was the investment bankers who created this mess with their mortgage-laundering” operation. They’re the one’s who should be cleaning it up. They don’t need a bail out; they need to go to jail.
Besides, as Olender points out, Fannie is already in financial trouble and doesn’t need more debt.
“Contrary to popular myth,” says Olender, “Fannie holds a lot of subprime debt, option ARM debt and other dodgy securities. Fannie and Freddie owned or guaranteed almost 45% of all mortgages in America last year. BusinessWeek noted in 2007 that Fannie and Freddie have “moved more prominently into low-documentation loans, which require little or no proof of the borrower’s income.”
Presently, Fannie has nearly $3 trillion mortgages guaranteed, but only $34 billion in capital reserves. If housing prices slide even 10%; Fannie’s is under-water and will probably have to file for bankruptcy. So, why take the chance?
This week, CNNMoney.com reported:
“The increased share of housing debt taken on by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae during the housing slump has put the two government sponsored enterprises at risk.” By “buying up mortages on the secondary market that the banks are walking away from” Fannie and Freddie “are reducing risks in the market, but concentrating mortgage risks on themselves. These risks are beginning to take their toll,” said James Lockhart, director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) He spoke Thursday at a Senate Banking committee on regulatory reform.
Get the picture? If Fannie and Freddie take a swan dive the effects will be felt through the entire financial system for years to come.
Naturally, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) are jazzed about increasing the conforming loan limits to $729,000. They’re even predicting that it will boost sales by 300,000 homes. But that’s just more realator-hype. Look: the way we got into this mess was by “artificially stimulating” the market with low interest credit from the Fed. We’re not going to get out of it by using the same strategy. The government needs to stop meddling in the markets and let home prices return to the mean. Then the buyers will reappear. The stimulus will only prolong an already-painful contraction.
Of course, Congress has already rubber-stamped the “stimulus travesty” and rushed off to the Senate where it will get a slight face-lift before it’s plopped on Bush’s desk. Next week, there’ll be a signing ceremony in the Rose Garden, where Bush will be surrounded by a small army of smiling bankers, nodding approvingly and patting themselves on the back for sticking it to the American taxpayer one more time. What a triumph.
THE BANKER’S MASTERPLAN: “Dump the mortgage-backed junk on Uncle Sam”
Everyone should be aware of the massive fraud that is about to be perpetrated on the nation to save a few shifty bankers from default. The basic contours of the plan was laid out in an op-ed in the New York Times last week by Howard P. Milstein, chairman of New York Private Bank and Trust. Milstein made his pitch for a bailout in an article titled “Give The Banks Some Credit”.
Milstein says:
“The health of the American — and indeed the global — economy depends on having a financial system that is able to extend credit to businesses and consumers. The losses that have been incurred as a result of the excesses in subprime mortgage lending will take years to work their way through the worldwide financial system, as dozens of banks act to replenish their lost capital… Until the banks rebuild their capital, they will not have the wherewithal to lend money and support economic growth. If banks of all sizes could regain their capital immediately and easily, it would be a tremendous benefit to the American economy.”
Milstein continues:
“The federal government could make this happen by entering into an arrangement with American banks that hold subprime mortgages, in which homeowners typically pay a low interest rate for two or three years then face much higher payments. Here’s how it would work: The government would guarantee the principal of the mortgages for 15 years. And in exchange the banks would agree to leave their “teaser” interest rates on those loans in effect for the entire 15 years. This would instantly give the lending banks new capital.”
Wait a minute. If “the government guarantees the principal of the mortgages” then there’s no risk for the banks. If that’s the case then why should they be paid anything, even the “teaser rates”. Investment is risk and risk is investment—Get used to it. What Comrade Milstein is requesting is “nationalizing” the banking system to protect his indolent friends from loss or default. This could have been written by Chairman Mao.
Milstein continues:
“As these mortgages would be guaranteed by the Treasury, they would suddenly be assessed, on bank balance sheets, at their original value — and a significant amount of the banks’ lost capital would be restored. Plus, the banks would receive, from most of the homeowners with subprime mortgages, up to 15 years of teaser-rate payments.”
Unbelievable! So the bank takes NO risk on the investment but—at the same time—is allowed to add the full value of the mortgage to its capital reserves? And, Milstein doesn’t even want to reduce the value of the mortgage to current housing prices. He thinks it should be recorded at its “original value” so it can beef up the bank’s dwindling capital.
What kind of rubbish is that? Real estate prices have plummeted in the last year and (and so have subprime “structured investments”) the banks assets should reflect those losses. Tough luck, Milstein. Your buddies cooked up this scam. Now take your lumps like a man.
Milstein continues:
“By solving the bank capital crisis immediately, this strategy would ensure that fewer families would lose their homes”…blah, blah, blah. It would “be good for our economy.” Blah, blah, blah.
Then Milstein adds this tidbit:
“Under this arrangement, American banks would have an incentive to buy back the subprime debt now being held by foreign banks and other financial institutions. American banks could buy the securities at a discount to face value (reflecting the continued low teaser rates) and then, thanks to the government guarantee, hold them as capital assessed at their full value. That, in turn, would allow the other financial institutions to reinvest in other sectors of our economy.”
Ah-ha! So the foreign banks and investors are finally waking up to the fact that they were ripped-off and they want their money back. It’s about time. They were defrauded and they deserve restitution. The first article about the impending tidal wave of subprime litigation appeared earlier in the week on FOX Business.com “Lawsuits Begin to Spill Out of Subprime Mess” http://www.foxbusiness.com/article/lawsuits-begin-spill-subprime-mess_460851_55.html The subprime boondoggle will play out in courts for years to come.
But, back to Milstein. What does he want? He wants to buy back the subprime debt that was sold to gullible foreign banks “at a discount” but then record it on the banks’ balance sheets at full value.
Whoa. Now, there’s a neat trick. In other words, he wants to pay a nickel for the “debt”, but then record it as a dollar to meet his capital requirements.
Is this really how bankers think?
Oh—and by the way—he also wants the American taxpayer to guarantee the debt in case the nickel loses some of its value. Nice touch, eh? Milstein adheres to the old adage, “Privatize the profits, socialize the losses.”
Finally, Milstein adds that his only interest is his “concern for the health of the global financial system.”
Can you feel the love?
The tragedy of the stimulus charade is that some variation of Milstein’s proposal is sure to be enacted. Otherwise it wouldn’t have shown up in the NY Times. The Times frequently uses the op-ed page to put up trial balloons for changes in policy. It’s the same here. The banking establishment and the administration have finally settled on a ‘bail out plan’ and “We the People” are going to foot the bill. Congress is already on board and Bush is just a swipe-of-the-pen away from another trillion dollar giveaway to big business. The banks and money-lenders always get their pound of flesh while the rest of us get screwed. Some things never change.
Expect Fannie and Freddie to collapse within the year.
RE101:
Can you hurry up your comments, I need to go to the gym…
From MarketWatch
Continued weakness in housing seen in data
More awful inflation numbers expected in coming week
U.S. consumers won’t really feel comfortable until home values stop falling. They could be in for a rough year because there’s no sign that home-price declines are letting up.
And with home prices falling, fewer buyers are willing to take the plunge.
Fresh data on housing to be released in the coming week should show further declines in both sales and prices, economists said. None of the top-tier economic indicators are on the calendar, so investors will turn their attention away from the economy and back toward markets, especially commodities, currencies and interest rates.
…
The housing data probably won’t have much market impact, either (edit: like CPI), because no one expects a recovery in the sector any time soon.
Sales of existing homes likely fell again in April, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.84 million from 4.93 million in March, according to a survey of economists conducted by MarketWatch. That would be another cyclical low.
The pending-home-sales index fell 1% in March, pointing to a decline in closings in April.
The inventory bears watching. Spring is the big season to put a home on the market, and the Realtors’ data on inventories of unsold homes are not seasonally adjusted. Inventories usually rise 7% in April. If they rise that much this year and sales fall as expected, the inventory-to-sales ratio could rise to a cyclical high of 10.7 months, wrote Michael Feroli, an economist for JPMorgan Chase.
Foreclosures are also adding to supply pressures. The Realtors’ inventory data include only homes listed for sale; many foreclosures are sold through auctions, and not on the multiple-listing service. The true inventory of homes on the market is likely understated.
…
The Case-Shiller index has been particularly weak recently, with prices falling at a 25% annual pace over the past three months. The Ofheo index has been stronger, even showing a rise in prices in February.
Although a lot has been made of the differences between the two measures, both should tell the same basic story in the first quarter: rapidly falling prices. The Ofeho index should show “national home prices are falling at roughly a 10% year-over-year pace,” said Lehman economists.
“The historically high level of housing inventories suggests continued downward pressure on prices,” wrote Maury Harris and Jim O’Sullivan, economists for UBS. “We expect home prices will decline by another 10%” in addition to the 15% decline already seen in the Case-Shiller index.
214 schab
“You misspelled overt.”
hee!
215 clot
“his pillhead, recipe-plagizarizing wife”
C’mon, I’m sure there’s a politer way to distinguish between his wives.
“The historically high level of housing inventories suggests continued downward pressure on prices,” wrote Maury Harris and Jim O’Sullivan, economists for UBS. “We expect home prices will decline by another 10%” in addition to the 15% decline already seen in the Case-Shiller index.”
If anyone would know about housing bubble would be UBS, they were paying 106 for neg-am loans just last year. Where was this economist last year? He should have talked to their traders bidding for the negam loans not MarketWatch. He could save 30 Billion for them.
227
dinosaur media are dying off.
#223 The developers (Vornado) had a lot of issue to resolve with Paramus. From what I understand they have been resolved for the most part,and construction seems to be picking up.
From what I undestand they already have committments form Whole, Foods, Lowes,and Target.
The plan for Target makes no sense to me, (but what do I know) as there is already a Target in Hackensack 5 minutes away.
The whole mall is going to have that faux town look, where instead of looking like your typical mall, it will mimic store fronts like one would find in a downtown city or town.
http://www.nyiia.org/docs/AAS2008_Presentations/Subprime.pdf
Great Powerpoint from Protiviti on Subprime!
Anyone looking for a job??
Amazon.com to hire 1,100 at new Pennsylvania facility
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b2B4638AB-096F-4A1B-9C0E-9DD481B0E9EF%7d&siteid=yhoof2
njpat – true, but Thomson also is a huge service provider to the finance community and they have a large operation in the NYC area. I knew some people that worked for them downtown.
Talk about Volker on Obama’s cabinet as ‘Secretary of the Treasury’
While I am wating for RE101 I will tell you all a little story…
I was sitting next to guy on a plane yesterday who does outsourcing for all back office jobs at the banks, including IB’s. He told me 2 things:
1. His business is booming.
2. Citi and Merrill are really bad off. I know about Citi but he said that Merrill’s recent bailout was just temporary. More pain ahead for them.
237 hard
Used to work with them on financial reporting for my firm in a former life as a paralegal.
Shrunken Street:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5215f7a6-253c-11dd-a14a-000077b07658.html
Another real estate question to pose to the board:
Inspection turned up a few items: window in LR, water heater about to go, something leaking on the central air unit. Nothing out of the ordinary.
The question I have is whether it’s better to get the seller to agree to fix pre-closing or get a credit and do it myself after closing? Is there a clear-cut way to go or are there pros and cons to each?
thanks in advance!
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/19/real_estate/california_sales.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008051914
243 shows the advantages of rapid price drops
# John Says:
May 19th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Does anyone know who Obama plans to pick as his VP?
Yes, I do. But I’m not allowed to tell you.
What was wrong with OFHEO?
From MarketWatch:
Senate housing bill creates new Fannie, Freddie regulator
242,
jmacdaddio
Do it yourself, no one is going to fix the house so they can move out. That’s silly.
patient (231)-
“C’mon, I’m sure there’s a politer way to distinguish between his wives.”
Aw, man, that’ easy:
– one-legged
– two-legged
Please pardon me. I cannot resist amputee jokes.
grim Says:
May 19th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
What was wrong with OFHEO?
Maybe they think Lockhart has too much independence. Getting in the way of bailing out their banking buddies you know.
#185: And it’s been sitting at that price for quite a while.
#200: John: I’d watch the use of that word “uppity.” Someone might think you’re a racist. Of course, perhaps you are. And by the way, what exactly do you think is “uppity” about her? Do tell. I love watching fear and loathing of strong women in action.
jmac,
I agree that you should push for a credit. If you ask them to take care of it, you can believe they’ll go the cheapest and fastest way possible.
Jill (250)-
John hates everybody. Including, I suspect, himself.
Calling a black person “uppity” where I’m from is an invitation to a mouthful of Chiclets.
253 clot
same.
250 jill
“I love watching fear and loathing of strong women in action.”
It is, although in this case I’m sure it’s not necessary that they be strong.
Was just riding on the subway in NYC from an appointment.
A person stepped into the car and started a pitch to anyone listening about the real estate company he worked for! Basically, he went through a litany of all the economic problems facing people and how his company could help you buy a home and keep it from being foreclosed. He mentioned they had been in business for over 20 years and had international offices!
He started to hand out cards, but I had to jump off before I caught the name.
It was hard to believe. Has anyone seen anything like this, but in a different, but equally incongruous, setting?
JM
She’s uppidity cause she thinks she is smarter than everyone including her husband. Plus I would love to see her and Hillery in the hen house together, those two witches would be fun to watch.
Michelle Obama: Inferiority Complex Prevents Blacks From Supporting Obama
By Mark Finkelstein | November 12, 2007 – 07:52 ET
Guess I won’t be calling Mika Brzezinski a “newsreader” again anytime soon. The “Morning Joe” panelist went to Iowa over the weekend and scored an in-depth interview with Michelle Obama that elicited a highly-controversial suggestion from the candidate’s wife. According to Mrs. Obama, her husband isn’t polling better among African-Americans because in the back of their minds, many blacks think “others” are better.
255 bklyn
in several decades of NYC subway riding I’ve never seen something like that.
“I love watching fear and loathing of strong women in action.”
Where’s Margaret Thatcher when we need her?
She’s uppidity
Can someone search the archives and list all the non-blacks that John’s described as ‘uppity’?
Stay classy.
“she thinks she is smarter than everyone including her husband.”
I’ve had enough of discrimination against intelligence in elections.
That crap get’s us moron’s like the current ‘tard in the white house, with gajillionaires like Matthews and Russert fetishizing the “I could drink a beer with him” qualities of other gajillionaires like Bush who they somehow imagine to be “one of the boys” (leaving aside that he’s an alcoholic who supposedly no longer drinks at all), and nevermind whether the guy is qualified in any relevant sense whatsoever.
I would never have thought it needed to be said, John, but since the concept seems unclear, here it is: BEING A MORON IS NOT A GOOD THING.
jmac:
get a credit and you fix it.
We had a seller try to paint the sheathing in the attic to hide the leaking roof’s water stain. The “paint” was his “repair”.
nice…
I don’t know about John’s use of the word uppity but I definitely get a bad vibe from her. Actually I get a bad vibe from the Obama’s, for all of his hope and dream crap he and his wife are closed minded and approach everything with certain amount of cockiness and ego. Simply put they think they know best. A truly intelligent person is one who willingly admits they KNOW very little. We need a pragmatic person in the White House, Obama is not it, in this respect he is like the moron who currently resides at 1600 Penn.
John – another thing: when you get your news from whackadoo websites like Newsbusters.org (Slogan: “Exposing and Combating Liberal Media Bias”) and then quote it to us as if it’s not fever swamp material, you put yourself in the same political bed with loonies like reinvestor101.
Jill Says:
May 19th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
reinvestor #27: Maybe because McCain isn’t drawing big crowds? Maybe it’s because McCain has alienated those who respected him for doing what he thinks is right because he’s been sucking up to the American Taliban like Hagee and Parsley? Maybe it’s because conservatives hate him? As for the alleged media love affair with Obama, what media love affair? You mean the one that obsessed about six seconds of what his pastor said years ago? The one that obsesses about whether he wears a flag pin and whether he’s a secret Muslim manchurian candidate? You mean THAT media? Aside from the Randi Rhodes show, which doesn’t even air in New York, I don’t know ANY media that isn’t in love with either Hillary Clinton (Air America) or John McCain (everyone else).
All Hype has got to wait a couple of minutes while I depense with this heresy. Everyone and his mother has been fawning over Obama and Hillary while McCain has been ignored. The press flips its favorable coverage between these two. The only fair coverage McCain has been getting is from Fox. MSNBC kisses Obama’s azz while CNN does the same for Clinton.
What’s the matter? You don’t like God? Listen you damn atheist, the bulk of the American people believe in God and McCain just wants the people to know he believes in God. There’s nothing wrong with breaking bread with Parsley and Hagee. It’s very evil of you to call them American Taliban.
Ever since we’ve been pre-approved Sallie Mae hasn’t stopped calling us. Apparently they do mortgages too. They called the house (where my father has been answering) three times today. They called a fourth time while i was there and my father answered to where he promptly replied in very Mafia fashion “get rid of them”.
spam,
Good story there. Good tip
FWIW, I always consider fresh painting a sign that something is hidden. Some of things I found:
Painting the unfinished basement walls and floor to conceal water stains (hint-don’t use white primer for that, esp. if water still happening)
Painting over outside trim with latex to hide rotting wood (hint, press on it with a key to locate rot).
Painting over recently spackled cracks to hide fact that your masonry is crumbling and the house with it.
Painting the sills and band joist black to make it look treated when in fact it is to hide water stains.
Painting the firebox of a fireplace black to hide crumbling mortar.
Between Hillary, and the Bush wives, I’d take the Obama mama over all three of them. I may suggest to the Montclair town council to rename (lower) Montclair, Uppity Montclair. This would go well with our neighboring division of Upper Montclair.
Uppity. Too moronic. What’s next, calling Condi a high yella?
263 redivestor101
“What’s the matter? You don’t like God? Listen you damn atheist, the bulk of the American people believe in God and McCain just wants the people to know he believes in God. There’s nothing wrong with breaking bread with Parsley and Hagee.”
I guess you’re not aware that he has no idea what he believes. Here, educate yourself:
http://www.perrspectives.com/blog/archives/001024.htm
All Hype Says:
May 19th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
RE101:
OK, cut off your nose to spite your face. No Obama, no bailout. Ok by me. I think I should be a McCain supporter.
Just to let you know, all your conservative boys in Washington are losing special elections left and right. Get ready for a 55-45 majority for the terrorists in the Senate and a commanding 40+ seat advantage for the terrorists in the house come November.
When the Clinton loving public puts a ass-cracking on your beloved conservatives come November, I am going to laugh my ass off. Why, not cause I am a liberal (I am a registered Rebublican) but because the man in the White House has totally ruined the finances of this country. Do not be fooled, people’s eyes are wide open about the economy now.
You are absolutely worthless. How in the hell are you going to blame the economy on Bush? Bush didn’t have anything to do with this shlt. It was housing terrorists like you that were behind this unraveling of the real estate and debt markets. You have the unmitigated gall to call yourself a damn conservative. Conservative my azz. You’re a dyed in the wool liberal who has deliberately joined the damn republican party to undermine us.
Let me tell your azz something, you damn spy, you liberals will not win in November. I will personally run Jeremiah Wright commercials to stop Obama. I will personally dig up enough dirt on him to bury him. I don’t know what the hell happened down in Mississippi, but don’t count on the liberals getting lucky again.
McCane might not live till November ;)
Nom #265-
You’re dead on…
I saw one house with fresh paint on the ceiling of a bathroom. It wasn’t a thick enough coat to conceal the mold/mildew underneath. Looked around and noticed no exhaust fan, vent, etc. So, that would be an on-going problem unless you installed a fan.
JM
stu Says:
May 19th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
McCane might not live till November ;)
What the hell? Is this a threat? I’m going to report you to the damn secret service. There’s absolutely nothing your ilk won’t stoop to.
268….oh lawdy
“Where’s Margaret Thatcher when we need her?”
Politically dead along with Reagan’s retarded “trickle down” economics.
271….stfu stoopid.
# 219 Who knows but I would not be surprised to see Sam Nunn or Wes Clark. They both have great military/foreign relations background and come from the south.
# 250 “I love watching fear and loathing of strong women in action.” I don’t think John loathes stron women. John, was it not you who was talking about some leather club dowtown where the women beat the guys (or was it someone else?)
# 266 “Between Hillary, and the Bush wives, I’d take the Obama mama over all three of them.”
Even at her age, I bet Barbara could take the other two at once.
#267 njpatient: You are forcing recrybaby to think again. I believe I cautioned you on that topic before.
No comments from all the BSD here on my wall st job posts from weekend discussion?
Link to posts – https://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/05/17/weekend-open-discussion-ii/#comment-186019
#268 rediaperwipe: was housing terrorists like you that were behind this unraveling of the real estate and debt markets.
Stop and think for a minute (I know it is quite difficult)
How could we on this site and others wherever they are who were not involved in the real estate market ( or had gotten out when the getting was good) be responsible for the unraveling of the real estate market?
Would it not stand to reason that many who were involved in the market were responsible for its own demise?
#278 jafo: Missed it. Perhaps you can re-post it.
Perhaps the next GTG should be held at Fight Club.
I’ll make drinks.
GTG.
Let’s make it happen.
Some new recruits need to introduce themselves.
Hopefully our buddy Re101 can make it this time.
[273] Meter,
Perhaps you should do some research. Reagan was said to espouse trickle down, but in reality, what was implemented was vastly different. TRA 86 cut taxes across the board (and was not really his baby–Read “Showdown in Gucci Gulch” which is required reading for all NYU tax grads and a damned fine read), and his military spending was Keynseian in its effect.
Calling it “trickle down” didn’t make it so.
And as for your tax cut, if you really don’t want it, the U.S. Treasury accepts donations. Really.
Or send it to me. Just as good.
Something closer than New Brunswick would be good. That is a hike in traffic.
“Perhaps the next GTG should be held at Fight Club.
I’ll make drinks.”
Pu$$y.
What kind of warmongering Republican uses a French pseudonym anyway?
for a GTG, that is.
286 – Meter,
One who doesn’t care what you think.
Last GTG was in Morristown. Seemed to be middle ground for most folks, but many requested a relo to gold coast for the next one.
rePester101:
I was not threatening McCane ya moron. I was simply making a joke about his youthfulness. I give him one more month before he flat out states that a vote for Obama will result in another 9-11. And don’t forget about his statement of his thorough knowledge of economics. All he knows is what Bush has taught him. How quickly we forget that he was bashing Bush harder than Obama is currently back in the 2000 primary. Now he is emulating him. Go ahead and vote for him though. This country really could use another 4 years of diminishing wages, deflating dollars and a leader who makes my 2 year old son sound like Einstein.
RE101:
You are absolutely worthless. How in the hell are you going to blame the economy on Bush? Bush didn’t have anything to do with this shlt. It was housing terrorists like you that were behind this unraveling of the real estate and debt markets. You have the unmitigated gall to call yourself a damn conservative. Conservative my azz. You’re a dyed in the wool liberal who has deliberately joined the damn republican party to undermine us.
Let me tell your azz something, you damn spy, you liberals will not win in November. I will personally run Jeremiah Wright commercials to stop Obama. I will personally dig up enough dirt on him to bury him. I don’t know what the hell happened down in Mississippi, but don’t count on the liberals getting lucky again.
Dude, you are a laugh riot!! Bush has everything to do with this economy. He told the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to trump any state’s laws regarding predatory lending. So the lousy lending practices kept going and going. And the states could do nothing about it.
Now onto your comments about me being a dyed in the wool liveral. I was a conservative before it became a party of entitled people who were in it just to make themselves richer. It was the party of small guvmint and fairness to all with a open and free economy. Does that sound like the party now? I do not think so.
See RE101, you think you are entitled to a bailout cause you think you are entitled in general cause you are a neocon. Truth is you are not entitled, you are just another bag holder with nothing but pride left and a hope that your loyalty will pay out. Sad truth is that the people up top do not give a rat’s ass about you ar anyone else cause you ain’t in the club. So all that is left for you is a bailout by the terrorists. But this really has your pride in a bind cause you will be bailed out by those who you consider inferior. Your pride is really gonna take a hit when that day comes.
And what about your party now? They are bailing out the banks and your bailout is nowhere in sight. And are they turning this new money over to you? Of course not cause housing is dead and never coming back. They are taking the new money and pumping up a commodities bubble. So sad that you are stuck raging over a bunch of smart housing bears while your party is causing oil to go up to $130 per barrel. Hopefully you can handle 5 buck gas next year.
As far as Obama is concerned, he is going to raise more money than McCain by two fold. You and your necon buddies are like the dinosaurs before the meteor hit.
You have been warned about your party’s ass cracking. It will hurt double when the welfare check comes from the terrorists.
jafo
“There is the very real possibility of people keeping their job, but seeing dramatic reduction income. ”
Absolutely.
“Perhaps the next GTG should be held at Fight Club.
I’ll make drinks.”
I will drink them.
We should try to tie the political discussion to real estate for a bit.
Example: Since when did artificial lakes stocked with fish become de rigeur for elitist fishermen?
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C01E6DB153DF937A25752C0A9679C8B63&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1
He also provided a thorough tour, with voluminous commentary, of the sprawling but unoccupied new dream house that he and his wife, Laura, have built beside an artificial lake, which was dug, at Mr. Bush’s request, so that he could troll for bass just yards from the patio.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/17/us/politics/17mccain.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
After the stop at the gun shop, Mr. McCain’s traveling press secretary, Brooke Buchanan, said that Mr. McCain would use his new fishing rod on the artificial lake at his 10-acre Arizona spread in Sedona.
We should try to tie the political discussion to real estate for a bit.
Example: Since when did artificial lakes stocked with fish become de rigeur for elitist fishermen?
Part I
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C01E6DB153DF937A25752C0A9679C8B63&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1
He also provided a thorough tour, with voluminous commentary, of the sprawling but unoccupied new dream house that he and his wife, Laura, have built beside an artificial lake, which was dug, at Mr. Bush’s request, so that he could troll for bass just yards from the patio.
Part II
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/17/us/politics/17mccain.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
After the stop at the gun shop, Mr. McCain’s traveling press secretary, Brooke Buchanan, said that Mr. McCain would use his new fishing rod on the artificial lake at his 10-acre Arizona spread in Sedona.
This country couldn’t take any more of the Reagan, Bush I, and Bush II economic policies. Clinton inherited record deficits and left with a surplus. After 8 years of this disaster-in-cowboy-boots we’re left with record deficits again.
Doherty Introduces ‘Common Sense’ Affordable Housing Legislation
Doherty introduced three bills today that he said “brings common sense back into the COAH equation.” The first proposed bill would defer to any regional planning authority the obligation to satisfy any alleged COAH obligations, and would exempt municipalities within that planning area’s jurisdiction, such as the Highlands, Pinelands, or Meadowlands, from exposure to “builder’s remedy” lawsuits.
The second bill provides protection from “builder’s remedy” lawsuits for any municipality that has less than 10 percent remaining developable land mass, or 20 percent remaining if all residential zones within those lands have densities of at least four units per acre.
The third piece of legislation challenges the Holmdel court case where the court validated the charging of COAH fees on commercial development.
Dodd Reaches Agreement On Housing Bill
WASHINGTON – A congressional attempt to fix the country’s housing troubles may be significantly closer today.
Sen. Chris Dodd, the chairman of the Senate’s banking, housing and urban affairs committee, and the ranking Republican on that committee, Richard Shelby of Alabama, have settled their differences on a bill they hope alleviates the ongoing housing crisis.
Here’s what their compromise would do: establish a voluntary system to rescue homeowners from foreclosure, described as being zero cost to taxpayers; start a new affordable-housing fund; establish a new regulator for government-connected mortgage-finance titans including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Bush Stresses He Won’t Back Bill to `Bail Out’ Housing Lenders
“Our policy in this administration is laws shouldn’t bail out lenders, laws shouldn’t help speculators,” Bush said after receiving a briefing on the housing and credit markets from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
“The government ought to be helping creditworthy people stay in their homes,” Bush said.
Both Bush and Paulson have opposed the House bill. Bush says it would reward irresponsible lenders and borrowers at taxpayer expense.
Bush said he wants Congress to pass legislation to strengthen oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest holders of U.S. home loans.
“That reform will come with a strong independent regulator,” Bush said.
More broadly, Bush said the U.S. economy is “working through tough times,” and that rebate checks sent to taxpayers will prove effective.
Bubble Trouble
Washington policymakers are generally eager to help prolong the bubble sectors because they become significant engines of growth. Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust found that between November 2001 and October 2005, housing and real estate accounted for 36 percent of U.S. private-sector payroll job growth. Advocating policies to deflate bubbles would be like the coaches tripping up running backs as they’re sprinting for the end zone. At a time when private sector money is flowing into cleantech at record pace, the only thing the three remaining presidential candidates can agree on is the need for the government to invest in green-collar jobs to revive the economy, ensure national security, and clean up the environment. There’s not much the Fed could do to slow this biodiesel-powered train.
#292 njpatient: Very possible and likely. When I was at Goldman one year in the 90’s was one of the firm’s best ever for bonus pay outs. It was a record year across the board.
A The very next year bonus money was cut 50%
Tard (268)-
“I will personally run Jeremiah Wright commercials to stop Obama.”
Tard, I don’t think this is an approved use for a HELOC.
Clot (302):
RE101 reminds a lot of the old timers from my hometown. He really is a riot to read…
Holes in the Roof
In an election year, there’s a lot of political momentum behind this bill. To win support from the Bush administration, which has turned hostile toward the idea in recent days, Mr. Frank has cleverly twinned his proposed mortgage bailout with tighter regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — a necessary reform long favored by Republicans. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke thinks that the housing market needs principal write-downs. And we agree that preventing further damage to the economy is a valid reason to consider a bailout.
Hype (303)-
You carved him up pretty good earlier on. I just don’t have the energy anymore to respond to him in more than 1-2 sentences.
Jamil, bring on the bailout.
“There’s a way to avert that calamity. It’s called foreclosure prevention. There is no excuse for delay.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/19/opinion/19mon1.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
So much info.
So little time lately.
You guys/gals keeping us informed.
Thank you.
Clot (305):
I think I have had about enough of RE101.
Anyway, I look forward to meeting all of you at the next GTG. still_lookimg has said good things about y’all.
#239,
“Citi and Merrill are really bad off”
No they are not, Citi laidoff very few people in the mortgage area and will be hiring soon. Merrill gave out great packages for people to leave and get another job next week, their wealth management business is better than ever. Stop the negative press.
Yes, I still owe Grim a drink, or several.
Lot’s of politics here today….Geez.
Hoboken work for folks?
Frank,
“Citi”
we are going to have to disagree.
last I heard, they still didn’t know the amount of losses they have.
Without naming a source, its a former director. (from Cleveland…big hint)
Yes, we shall see.
But, I’m sticken to my guns and calling an all out collapse of Citi.
SAS
Essex,
politics & economics are hand and glove.
:)
SAS
good advice about the paint blokes…
SAS
Frank,
I may also be putting my neck on the line;)
SAS
GTG needs to be Gold Coast.
Hoboken works for me.
302 3B
I expect my bonus to fall by at least 30% this year.
Excellent….
I’ll do my part to keep the reminders coming.
End of May? Early June?
grim Says:
May 19th, 2008 at 9:59 pm
GTG needs to be Gold Coast.
Hoboken works for me.
Hoboken does not work for me. It’s too liberal and nauseates me as a result. Move the thing further West so as to accomodate me and my friends. Also, i’d like to ask that the following people not be invited:
1) Pat
2) NJPantywaist
3) Clod
4) 3bonehead
5) Stu
6) All Hyper
7) Kettle
Hoboken works for me as well.
Last weekend in May or early June works also.
(321) – You are the pimp of idiot speak.
Re GTG-
Hoboken works for me. Please throw out dates that work. I’m good until after third week of June.
Grim, please do not plan on paying for any of your drinks. I owe you enormously. Especially, from the beginning when I had in-laws telling me I was crazy not to buy (Sept. ’05).
JM
Hahhaha.
101, I was just laughing about you and *BAM*, up I pop – #1 on your shit list.
Repossessed101 was pretty funny, you have to admit.
The competitive Penn Stater in me feels a certain sense of lion pride at the placement, but I worry that you did the numbers randomly after a few Millers.
So, what do you want? Why are you complimenting me?
Re101: Such a shame. I really wanted to meet you because I admire your political views and want to learn from your RE investing savvy.
How west would you need it? Are you from Pennsylvania? Kansas?
“still_lookimg has said good things about y’all.”
Meh – it’s all hype.
Is re101 Steven Corbert? 101 cracks me up.
So, what do you want? Why are you complimenting me?
Let me tell you something lady, you will always be NUMBER ONE on my list. I know you’re lurking like a snake in the grass ready to slip up and jump me. You’re the worst sort of housing terrorist/liberal; the quiet sneaky kind. Well, you don’t fool me with your tactics and I will NEVER ease up in keeping an eye on you.
As to your question as to what I want. I’ve requested numerous times that you absent yourself whenever I’m posting and you’ve yet to comply with this reasonable request. When can I expect compliance?
Well, I AM pretty busy lately, and you DID compliment me.
I guess I can stop posting…for you.
310 frank
“Citi laidoff very few people in the mortgage area and will be hiring soon. …Stop the negative press.”
Not sure how you can think you know that, but it ain’t so.
;P
Hoboken is good. Needs to be after the first week in June so Mrs. Patient can make it.
322 repossestor101
I’ve never wasted a panty in my life. You’re projecting.
3b in 301
I believe NJ patient was qouting from my post in previous thread on Wall St jobs. You asked me to repost. I was lazy and just posted link to comments. I guess everyone was equally lazy, and didn’t want to follow link. Someone could make a nice profit on the effort spread:)
I will copy and past below
I also see an on-going debate on “wall st” compensation and lay-offs.
I think we need to be more precise on what is being discussed by “wall st” jobs.
Do you mean all financial services jobs tri-state area, or just capital market jobs?
Do you mean “front-office” (brokers/traders/bankers) or all jobs (ops, tech, legal, marketing, hr)?
Do you mean bulge bracket or any firm?
The number of jobs and comp vary dramatically based on these questions.
You also have to conside the effect of the run up in bonuses and profits over last 5 years on current median/mean comp for a job, vs expectation going forward.
There is the very real possibility of people keeping their job, but seeing dramatic reduction income.
This happened after the dot.com bubble burst. Bulge bracket all in comp for top front office performers went from 100k+ analyst level, 400k+ associate, and 500k+ vp, to 60-80k analyst, 150-200k associate, and 200-300k vp. The run in bonuses was even higher this time around.
This was along with large layoffs. At VP level and above a good chunk (20-50 percent) of comp is in stock that vests over several years. There is also much more variation in comp at vp level and above – by performance and group. In sales/trading that variation starts at even senior associate level.
These positions are also a relatively small portion of the total jobs at even bulge bracket firms – 10-20 percent. Smaller firms will have higher tooth to tail ratios, but usually less comp (smaller deals, less capital).
A bit more on wall st jobs…
For any of this to be relevant, these people need to be buyers, sellers/holders, or prospective buyer of NJ real estate.
There are a few wall st enclaves in Suburban NJ. However, NYC, CT, Weschester remain destination of choice the for bulge bracket types and highest earners. These folks don’t even want to come to JC/Hoboken for work. Goldman wound up putting “back-office” folks in their new JC tower, becauses traders resisted the move.
No one below VP level in front office at even these firms would be looking to buy a suburban home anywhere. They are single and work 70-100 hour weeks.
Now there are plenty of people who are employed by these firms that live in NJ. They are usually back-office or middle-office folks. They do very well, but these are not 500K a year average comp jobs. A better benchmark would be 100-200k all in. Base salary is lock step at each level. So back office VP would make the same 120-150k in base salary as front office guy. However, bonus would be more like 20-75 percent of base – not 100-400%. It also take a lot longer to get to that level in the back office – figure 12-15 years experience. There are also proportionally fewer people at a given level. A level down, associate pay is 85-100k base, with same 20-75 percent bonus.
Likewise there are also plenty of retail brokers working in the wealth management groups of big banks or small firms in NJ. However, their median comp is more like 100k – with 80 percent of folks well under 200k or even 150k. The same goes for raders at small firms – with 2 standard deviation pay being more like 250k.
The bottom line is you need to look at income data for specific community, plus consider overflow dynamics.
This is where a bigger portion of the “wall st” world becomes relevant.
Big hitters push out smaller fish from the city and destinations of choice in good times. Who in turn, push out folks not in finance, technology, or law.
And all of this only relly applies to maybe top 10-15 percent of market.
The top 20 percent of HOUSEHOLDs in nj make 100K+. 500K+ all in is top 1 percent.
265 RE101
Can you please refrain from using the words “Fair” and “Fox” in the same sentence.
“[273] Meter,
Perhaps you should do some research. Reagan was said to espouse trickle down, but in reality, what was implemented was vastly different. TRA 86 cut taxes across the board (and was not really his baby–Read “Showdown in Gucci Gulch” which is required reading for all NYU tax grads and a damned fine read), and his military spending was Keynseian in its effect.
Calling it “trickle down” didn’t make it so.
And as for your tax cut, if you really don’t want it, the U.S. Treasury accepts donations. Really.
Or send it to me. Just as good.”
Were you even working in the 80s – the “greed is good” decade? Just curious how you view the whole “rich got richer” phenomenon if not a giant trickle down economy.
How about this: nobody pays taxes. You get no public roads/bridges, no military, no police, no firefighters, nothing. Sound good?
I love how certain Republicans/libertarians (not always the same but seem to be pretty lockstep for the most part) see their place in society.
Typical ‘privatize the gains, socialize the losses’ mindset.
Holy Moly,
I can no longer catch up on these threads!~350 posts by Noon!