From Bloomberg:
Arson Surges Across U.S. for Foreclosed Homes Lost to Subprime
At 10:40 p.m. on April 27, a blaze at the beige Victorian house at 19 Nye St. lit up a neighborhood littered with boarded-up homes on the north side of New Bedford, Massachusetts. It left charred wood and melted vinyl siding on the three-story structure.
The house had been abandoned after the owner defaulted on a $240,000 home loan from GreenPoint Mortgage Funding, a Novato, California lender that shut down in August, 2007. The fire was one of four suspicious blazes in foreclosed properties that month in the southern Massachusetts city. All are under investigation.
The biggest surge of mortgage defaults in seven decades coincides with an increase in blazes in foreclosed properties led by states with the most repossessed homes, according to fire safety officials in Nevada, Massachusetts and Ohio.
“The more empty houses we have, the more fires we are going to see,” said James Wright, chief of the Nevada State Fire Marshal Division in Carson City, the state’s capital. “It’s particularly dangerous for firefighters, because they don’t know what condition these buildings are in or what they might find in them.”
National arson statistics for 2007, due in September or October, probably will show a significant increase as foreclosures climbed toward an all-time high in 2008’s first-quarter, said James Quiggle, a spokesman for the Coalition Against Insurance Fraud in Washington.
…
“Home arsons follow foreclosure trends, with a lag,” Quiggle said, pointing to an increase after the last housing slump when the number of blazes reached 116,600 in 1992 from 111,900 in 1990. “We’re facing a potential spike in arson like we’ve never seen before.”
reminds me of the Bronx in the 70s
SAS
From the WSJ:
New Steps to Aid Economy Are Advocated
By DEBORAH SOLOMON
July 3, 2008; Page A3
WASHINGTON — As the last batch of stimulus checks show up in mailboxes, some economists and Democrats are rumbling that the government needs to again intervene to prop up the flagging economy.
The $152 billion stimulus package was meant to provide a short-term boost to the economy, and many economists believe it prompted Americans to spend more money. But by July 11, most of the checks will have been sent out, and much of the benefit is expected to fade by August even as fears of a recession continue to percolate.
Already, Lawrence Summers, the former Clinton Treasury Secretary, and Robert Shiller, the Yale economist, are advocating some sort of additional stimulus. Democrats on Capitol Hill are discussing legislation to boost the economy. And the presidential candidates are also mulling ways to spur growth.
Still, there’s little agreement about what form a second stimulus should take or how quickly it should happen. Some favor another round of rebate checks, while others advocate investment in infrastructure.
There are also plenty of people, including some economists, who think another short-term stimulus package is the wrong way to go, arguing that it does little to fix the underlying problems plaguing the economy.
“You can’t put a Band-Aid on a cancer,” said Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg.
From the WSJ:
Industry Group Says Loan Delinquencies Are Rising
By MICHAEL R. CRITTENDEN
July 3, 2008
Cash-strapped U.S. consumers hurt by the weak economy continued to fall behind on credit payments during the first quarter, a trend one financial-industry group said is likely to continue.
The American Bankers Association Wednesday said several loan categories showed an increase in the percentage of accounts at least 30 days past due during the quarter, including personal loans, bank credit cards and mobile-home loans.
Transportation-related loans also saw an increase in consumers falling behind in payments.
“It was a tough quarter for some people,” ABA Chief Economist James Chessen said in a statement. “Faced with rising food and gas prices and little income growth, fewer resources have been available to manage debt.”
Of note was the sizable increase in the percentage of home-equity lines of credit that were considered delinquent. The ABA said 1.1% of home-equity lines of credit were at least 30 days past due on a seasonally adjusted basis during the first quarter, up 0.14 percentage point from the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2007, the figure stood at 0.6% delinquent.
Bank credit-card delinquencies showed a similar quarter-to-quarter increase, climbing to 4.51% in the first quarter from 4.38% at the end of 2007. The ABA said the five-year average delinquency rate for bank-card loans was 4.4%.
Mr. Chessen said he expects delinquencies to remain elevated in the near future as “persistently high gas and food prices will eat away at overall resources.”
From the Record:
Will values vaporize?
POMPTON LAKES — Increasingly frustrated and demanding more detail, some 158 residents met Wednesday with borough, state, and DuPont representatives about toxic vapors rising from groundwater beneath as many as 350 homes.
…
The effect of the situation on home values also worried many residents.
“My next-door neighbor sold her house and moved to North Carolina,” said Anne Klauser, who lives on Colfax Avenue, in the affected area. “They were supposed to have a closing June 20 but when news of the pollution came out, the guy backed out.”
“Central Bankers Warn of ‘Tipping Point'”
http://tinyurl.com/4wc4vf
SAS
“The 78th Annual Report of the Bank for International Settlements Report”
http://tinyurl.com/48aslr
SAS
“Beyond the Mortgage Meltdown”
http://tinyurl.com/4n7b5g
SAS
and you blokes still argue over if we should drill or lower taxes on petro, as if this will solve the problems. While the dollar gets devalued and is crashing, thanks to the corrupt private federal reserve pumping money like it going out of style.
Dollar devaluation is the real problem, everything else is secondary.
“Jersey could retire a lot of debt with black gold”
http://tinyurl.com/49n7l2
SAS
Bergen County for First Half of Year
Median Price
Down 4% from last year
Down 6% from peak in 2006
Sales
Down 30% from last year
Down 40% from peak in 2005
Under Contract (Pending)
Down 25% from last year
(NJPatient is right, this should be re-posted in the AM!)
Ooops…
Under Contract (Pending)
Down 25% from last year
Down 36% from peak in 2005
“Dollar devaluation is the real problem, everything else is secondary.”
SAS,
Bingo. We should abolish that corrupt, private organization. By the way, who are the shareholders?
“Under Contract (Pending)
Down 25% from last year
Down 36% from peak in 2005”
Rich[10],
Signs of a market on fire, per Frank. More like a market burning to the ground.
Oil over $145 in Singapore trading
I was actually wondering when the fires were going to start.
ECB announcement due out at 7:45
June WARN Notices out. The mass layoffs list seems to be getting longer month by month.
2008- JUNE WARN Notice
COMPANY CITY EFFECTIVE DATE WORKFORCE AFFECTED
ORTHO BIOTECH BRIDGEWATER 9/1/08 260
ORTHO BIOTECH BRIDGEWATER 8/1/08 289
POLYMER GROUP LANDISVILLE 8/15/08 82
JPMORGAN CHASE SOMERSET 8/7/08 0
BANK OF AMERICA JERSEY CITY 8/3/08 162
SCHERING-PLOUGH STATEWIDE 8/11/08 500
NATIONAL ENVELOPE UNION 8/3/08 171
INTERCALL WAYNE 10/31/08 121
PALISADES SAFETY & INS. FREEHOLD 8/17/08 48
INTERSTATE OGISTICS SECAUCUS 8/10/08 90
WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN WOODCLIFF LAKE 8/19/08 56
DELAWARE NORTH NEWARK 9/1/08 242
LEHIGH PRESS PENNSAUKEN 8/26/08 206
LIZ CLAIBORNE DAYTON 8/22/08 92
ABBOTT LABORATORIES PARSIPPANY 8/29/08 83
NORTH JERSEY MEDIA ROCKAWAY 8/26/08 11
COMFORT INN/ECONO LODGE ATLANTIC CITY 9/1/08 50
ZINSSER CO. SOMERSET 8/29/08 61
#14 Tom
That will never happen in NJ. Prices only go up here due to our NYC proximity, robust economy, fair and balanced taxes, world class mass transit, and our great pizza.
/ off sarcasm
OK. We do have great pizza.
Good Morning All….
ECB – Trichet – 15 minutes….Bloomberg says…my fingers are crossed. Ah come on Feds – pay attention! Surprise us!
From Bloomberg:
Deutsche Bank’s Jain Says Credit Crisis Is `By No Means Over’
Anshu Jain, head of global markets at Deutsche Bank AG, said the contagion triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage collapse has erased more than a fifth of the banking industry’s tangible equity and is “by no means over.”
Jain, at a Euromoney conference in London today, said the crisis “has wiped out $200 billion,” or about 22 percent of the tangible equity of the banking industry. That impact is similar to the combined effect on the insurance industry of Hurricane Andrew, the Sept. 11 attacks and Hurricane Katrina, he said.
“This banks crisis is really at a point where it equals the three biggest crises faced by the insurance industry,” Jain said. “It’s by no means over.”
From CNBC:
Athletes Losing Homes (video)
4.25 – Will we do anything?
Does Stu still come here?
If so, the push reel mower got me thinking about going organic. I found a program that mails you organic lawn care products which is good for people like me that don’t have access to a neighborhood feed store to get organic fertilizers like corn gluten meal. I’m going to be tracking my progress. Hopefully it works out. Looks like some good stuff in that program and cheaper than hiring someone locally to spray the lawn with synthetic chemicals.
ECB raises.
Wow, ECB hikes! Check!
7:48 (Dow Jones) EUR/USD hovering a bit below 1.59 after ECB hikes rates by 25 bp as expected. In New York, EUR/USD at 1.5889 from 1.5880 late yesterday, while USD/JPY at 106.31 from 105.98. DJ futures down 11, S&P down 1.40.
Love the headline over at CNBC.
“European Central Bank Plays Bad Guy, Hikes”
Waaahhh…
Grim (16):
I am on that list!!! I am out in Feb.
So Guys…Will we DO anything? I vote for a surprise rate hike by the Feds.
Saw my first Presidential Election bumper sticker for 2008.
Cheney
Satan
‘08
Fed needs to decide whether it wants to save housing or the economy.
“So Guys…Will we DO anything?”
Cindy,
Get a bigger bunker.
ECB has different issues. More political less economic.
(30) Grim Why don’t we save the economy and let housing work itself out. With the lower prices, we are managing to sell off inventory here in CA.
Bennie, holding the bag? Amazing, we are the only country in the world not fighting an inflation problem.
“STOCKHOLM, July 3 (Reuters) – Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, issued the following statement on Wednesday after raising interest rates by a quarter point to 4.5 percent. REPO RATE RAISED 0.25 PERCENTAGE POINTS TO 4.5 PERCENT”
“Inflation has risen substantially and is at its highest level since the mid-1990s.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25508367/for/cnbc
“ECB has different issues. More political less economic.”
Chi,
Also a positive current account balance, not requiring $2B a day.
Hahaha Begabe, looks like somebody put baby in the corner!
That’s current account defecit.
From what I remember in the 70’s, Volker had blinders on. All he saw was the inflation. The loss of jobs – business failures “be damned.” It was a survival of the fittest attitude.
I’m thinking back to December when I advised my daughter to lock in her 30-year at 5.8% because I was SURE the inflation would spur the Fed to raise the rate…instead – they lowered. Man…..
Cindy,
We need you at the fed.
BC – I’m so all over this mess-up. I am calling for a surprise rate hike – like yesterday….8/5 ….where will we be by then?
BC Bob – I believe you are more qualified for the Fed job – busy these days? You could join forces with the Dallas dude – Fisher – and get us out of this mess…..
“It’s the fire in the discotheque,” said Peter Demirali, a vice president at Vineland, New Jersey-based Cumberland Advisors Inc., which has $1 billion of assets under management. “Everyone can’t get out all at the same time.”
Add 7% inflation to my -5% forecast and you will come ahead by 2% by holding real-estate this year.
Frank – We have bigger fish to fry this AM – BC Bob is headed to the Fed – He is going to save the economy.
So let me get this straight you mail order the organic products for your lawn and then use a push mower to save gas. So the farmer shipes it to the manufacturer who ships it to UPS and then the big old Brown UPS truck drives up to your house. How does that save gas?
If so, the push reel mower got me thinking about going organic. I found a program that mails you organic lawn care products which is good for people like me that don’t have access to a neighborhood feed store to get organic fertilizers like corn gluten meal. I’m going to be tracking my progress. Hopefully it works out. Looks like some good stuff in that program and cheaper than hiring someone locally to spray the lawn with synthetic chemicals.
#29 Chifi,
Satan would run with that guy?
now the ride really gets interesting. Got shiny metal?
Frank [44],
You forgot one major item. There is a tug or war between deflation/inflation. Your POS is deflating as are other asset prices. Inflation is only affecting the things we buy, not the things you own. It’s a bitch when we are fighting both the 1930’s and 1970’s on one front. NO?
Everything that dies, someday comes back.
Paulson: no quick fix for oil price
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080703/britain_paulson.html
>>
I wonder how many times he stammered while saying that.
44 frank
LOL 7% inflation?!?!
CPI with food and energy is at 12%!
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
Going to Beantown this weekend. Maybe drop a few lowballs on some doorsteps, Back Bay.
“LOL 7% inflation?!?!”
ketttle,
7% in his dreams.
Initial jobless claims rise 16,000 to 404,000
U.S. ECONOMY LOSES 62,000 JOBS IN JUNE
CITIGROUP INC BONDS 08.40000% 12/31/2049 PERPETUAL ISIN #US172967ER86
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 93.375
Yield to Worst (Ask) 9.447%
There is no inflation, otherwise you couldn’t buy 40 year bonds from investment grade companies at the low interest rate of 9.4%
#22 – push reel mower
Does anyone want to buy a 20inch used Scotts Mower? Comes with sharpening kit & bag catch.
I’ve used it twice, it can’t cut dandelions & twigs smaller than a pencil width jam it.
What’s the price for scrap metal?
From MarketWatch:
Initial jobless claims rise 16,000 to 404,000
The number of people filing for unemployment benefits rose by 16,000 last week to 404,000, only the second time in this cycle that initial claims have been above 400,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week average of new claims rose to 10,250 to 390,500, the highest level since October 2005. Layoffs have breached levels typically associated with recessions. Meanwhile, the smoothed average of continuing claims rose to a fresh four-year high of 3.11 million, further evidence that jobs are increasingly hard to find.
#44 “f”
Add 7% inflation to my -5% forecast and you will come ahead by 2% by holding real-estate this year.
frank: you are delusional.
sl
56 photoAL
I am interested! get my e-mail from grim
From MarketWatch:
Payrolls fall by 62,000 in June
The U.S. economy shed 62,000 jobs in June while the unemployment rate unexpectedly remained at a four-year high of 5.5%, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Payrolls have now fallen in all six months this year for a total job loss of 438,000, the strongest evidence that the economy fell into a recession in the first half of the year.
Job losses in June were worse than the 40,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The unemployment rate was expected to fall to 5.4%.
46 John,
It’s more about not using harmful chemicals in my lawn than being “green”. I didn’t get a push mower but I like the idea of it. Again, not for being green but because it’s smaller and quieter. Small enough to make some extra room for a snow thrower.
As for saving emissions, while the delivery truck is using gas, I’m not. I’d probably have to make a 1hr+ round trip to a feed store to get some of the stuff. It would be a trip I normally wouldn’t take considering I don’t have any horses, pigs, etc to feed. I haven’t been able to find many organics lawn care products around me. The ones I do find are usually way overpriced and in the small bags for gardens or potted plants.
Again, it’s mostly for not having to worry about what’s being spread around me and having it delivered is the most convenient and affordable thing right now. Between gasses and tolls, it’s about the same as buying it myself locally. That’s provided I could find everything.
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent
of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers;
9.9%, up from 8.3% in June, 2007.
Cindy – re: Fed raising rates.
The biggest worry these days for the Fed is a credit derivative accident spawned from higher long-term rates. It cannot be permitted, but might occur anyway despite all of the wizards best efforts.
Right now Paulson is busy trying to come up with an “orderly” plan to unwind Investment bank failures.
My feeling is anyone with serious capital is sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy up assets at fire sale prices, my guess is they are going to get it.
Grim do you have the home addresses for the 62,000 people who have lost their jobs? I want to low ball them?
photoalchemy, are you the guy that listed it in Jersey City on craigslist?
#9 Rich: Thanks Rich!!
BTW… from what I read about push reel mowers, they don’t work well if you let the grass go too high. Which is usually the case with weeds. Twigs have to bee cleared out before you mow too. Even with a gas powered mower it’s a good idea to clear that stuff out because it can really ding up the blade.
#12 BC Bob: But NNJ says we are going to have a million new residents soon.
How can prices be going down, if we have to house all these new residents.
As NNJ says, they have to live somewhere
Actually the mexicans who mow my lawn just crap on it and spread it around and the plus side wild animals stay away cause mexican crap is particularly nasty plus I have no chemicals put on my lawn. The damm mexicans charge extra for chemicals and their crap seem to make my lawn nice and green like chipolti guacamolie. I don’t need a snowblower as the only people who walk in my neighborhood are the mexicans and they are south of the border in the winter so their is no need to shovel the sidewalks. It all works out quite nice.
Rich,
I’m curious, what’s your opinion. Do you think prices haven’t fallen enough to reflect the levels of inventory and lack of sales? That’s what it looks like to me.
Realtors can cook up some pretty good magic. Even when housing sales slowed in 2006, prices kept rising.
“How can prices be going down, if we have to house all these new residents”
3b,
Hopefully, they have a pocket full of cabbage.
John, you don’t have a driveway?
#30 grim: At this point its too late for either one (housing/economy)
#49 BC Bob: You went over frank’s head on that one.
“Add 7% inflation to my -5% forecast and you will come ahead by 2% by holding real-estate this year.”
Dumb.
3b [74],
Yeah, I realized after I posted.
(63) Sean
“Right now Paulson is busy trying to come up with an “orderly” plan to unwind Investment bank failures.”
Yeah – I bet he wishes 1999 never happened and Glass-Steagall looks pretty smart to him about now.
#60 grim:The U.S. economy shed 62,000 jobs in June while the unemployment rate unexpectedly remained at a four-year high of 5.5%,
Yes sure, unexpectedly, because the talking heads were trying to tell us that last month’s increase to 5.5, was a fluke, millions of teenagers looking for summer jobs, blah, blah, blah.
#77 Glass-Steagall looks pretty smart to him about now.
Amen!
Regarding the weekly claims numbers, New Jersey had a huge number of layoffs over the reporting period.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
NJ +6,998 Layoffs in the transportation, warehousing, trade, service, and public administration industries.
Cindy (33)-
Precisely. The Fed will wreck the economy if it tries to save housing via mirrors, rubber bands, barbed wire and steroid injections.
In order to save the patient, you can’t kill the patient.
51 ket
“CPI with food and energy is at 12%!”
Don’t encourage frank. Frank’s theory is that if RE is down 5% in real terms but inflation is greater than 5%, he’s made a profit. If you tell him inflation is higher, he’ll get all the more excited about his increased profit.
My driveway is the length of one car, I just back it out in street and push the snow off and I am done!! The other trick I do is take my other car I park in the street and block my driveway so they can’t plow me in. Normal Brooklyn/Queens Snow strategies being used in a surburban setting.
My favorite is my neighbor he puts carboard over his window when it is going to snow, then in morning yanks the cardboard off and drives off with all the snow on his car!!!
Tom Says:
July 3rd, 2008 at 8:50 am
John, you don’t have a driveway?
#49,
I lived thru 100+% inflation period, where CD rates where 125% per year. People took out a mortgage and they paid it off a year later with one paycheck. If you that grim about the future of this country, why not expect a similar scenario?
Not only did we lose 62,000 jobs in June, but the April and May payrolls numbers were revised downwards by 52,000.
Tom; kettle
re push reel mowers
photoalchemy and tom are right that twigs easily jam the things and tall grass/weeds are a problem (this is simple mechanics – the blades are swinging from above in a circle, but are only about 14 inches high or so, and so are only about 7 inches high at the point at which the pull the grass into the mower for slicing (I’m sure a mechanical engineer could have expressed that in fewer words)).
BUT: I used one to mow my parents lawn in the Berkshires for 10 years, and as long as you don’t wait too long between mows, and you occasionally rake the lawn, they work perfectly well.
Tom, I’m with you. I’m not a big fan of sprinkling my property with poison on a monthly basis.
frank (84)-
Are you from Zimbabwe?
clot:
primum non nocere
sl
# grim Says:
July 3rd, 2008 at 7:54 am
“Fed needs to decide whether it wants to save housing or the economy.”
I was under the impression that both were terminal.
“#77 Glass-Steagall looks pretty smart to him about now.
Amen!”
And yet Phil Gramm is still taken seriously as an economic adviser (maybe because of Wendy?)
“In order to save the patient, you can’t kill the patient.”
Hear! Hear!
off topic.
anyone have a friend in LA looking for work? (actors, writers or aspiring anything need not apply) sales oriented with some commercial real estate experience a plus.
#87 clot,
You beat me to it.
#84
“frank Says:
July 3rd, 2008 at 9:07 am
#49,
I lived thru 100+% inflation period, where CD rates where 125% per year. People took out a mortgage and they paid it off a year later with one paycheck. If you that grim about the future of this country, why not expect a similar scenario?”
My choices are
1) Zimbzbwe
2) Brazil
3) Argentina
4) Mars
http://allafrica.com/stories/200806250625.html
If frank had invested in Zimbabwe Real Estate, he would be very rich in Zimbabwe currency.
frank
“I lived thru 100+% inflation period,”
Where? When?
94 NNJ
LOL
In other news, Zimbabwe announced a new contract with Charmin to provide it with banknote paper after Giesecke & Devrient announced it would halt shipments.
Of course, here’s the really important news of the week
A-Rod’s wife allegedly dumps him for Kravitz
http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/56212
This will get more news then $150 barrel of oil, Iran, and unemployment rate combined will.
Where? When?
Poland, 1980s.
still (88)-
izzat pig latin? ;)
chifi and dinj: “Satan would run with that guy?”
I think Satan is running with the other guys.
“Democratic Party Officials Charged With Satanic Ritual Sex Crimes”
The North Carolina case of an alleged satanic torture involving a Democratic Party official and her husband has now expanded to include a third suspect, an even higher-ranking Democrat.
Diana Palmer, the first vice-chairwoman of the Durham County Democratic Party, joins her political colleague Joy Johnson, the third vice-chairwoman of the party, and Johnson’s spouse, Joseph Craig, in facing charges.
Lot of reports today and yesterday about this..These people were active Mike Nifong supporters in the Lacrosse Hoax case.
Franek,
Na prawdę?
“frank (84)- Are you from Zimbabwe?”
Clot,
His IQ indicates a further place.
bairen (98)-
I think they should all get blood tests.
#104 clot,
We all know viruses and bacteria would never dare to infect the rich and infamous.
“Na prawde?”
Tak, jestem z Polski, tam sie urojilem.
Add 7% inflation to my -5% forecast and you will come ahead by 2% by holding real-estate this year
Sorry Grasshopper, that’s not how the math works. Let me spell it out for you.
With 7% inflation and a -5% drop in nominal prices, you are down closer to 11%.
Inflation is not your friend when you are holding an asset class experiencing falling prices.
A $500k with 7% inflation should be $535k next year just to stay flat in real terms. But, if the nominal value of the house falls to $475, the real price drop is over 11%.
You guys do know that Cash is one of the worst thing to hold during high inflation.
RentinginNJ
Stop trying to be logical!
Things are different in a global economy. Third world countries become more like us and we become more like third world countries. McMansions will be bulldozed all over the country to make room for affordable McMudHuts. If you can’t sell a 500k house, just split it up into 5 lots with corrugated steel shanties for $115k each.
NNJ (108),
You’re a little late with that nugget of information.
110, I saw a few posting by people holding cash waiting to swoop in. Maybe they did not get the message….convert that money to commodities or euros.
Tom,
No, prices haven’t fallen far enough as sales and pending sales show.
I see the prices in 2006 as the overhang from 2005. They started to flatten near the end of the year.
Tak, jestem z Polski, tam sie urojilem.
Gdzie?
NNJ (111),
They mean they have funds to purchase, won’t need the voodoo financing that many used to get into this mess.
Is NNJ a realtor, a bag holder, or both? Sorry if this question has been answered before.
Ambac falls below $1 and halted, buh-bye!
“Gdzie?”
Około Ostrołekie, zona jest z okoła Krakowa.
New Jersey Real Estate, Stroller, Car, and What-The-Heck-Are-They-Saying-To-Each Other Report
114, so these funds are in Euros or Dollars?
NNJ,
“You guys do know that Cash is one of the worst thing to hold during high inflation.”
Thanks, Jesse Livermore. Why do you assume “you guys” hold cash?
#119 NNJ
What makes you think the Euro is undervalued compared to he US dollar? They have many of the same problems as the US, plus higher unemployement and even more social entitlement programs.
So what are you holding your ‘funds’ in?
Well, I’m not ready to buy a house this month, but I do need to mow the lawn. So I’ll jump in there. I’ve been using a reel mower for the last 2 summers (property is 90×120) and it requires a little more effort than a gas powered mower, but not much. I did buy a weed whacker because it doesn’t do well around trees or inclines, but I’d need that anyway. But I’m not preachy, so if you have a riding mower, more power to ya. I believe in the rainbow coalition of lawn care.
My kids are both under 3 yrs, in about a decade I may get a lawn care break.
#115 NNJ is a realtor, actually maybe a realtor and a bagholder.
124, Do not spread lies.
“So what are you holding your ‘funds’ in?”
NNJ,
Wouldn’t you like to know? Come to the next GTG. I’ll draw you a map.
#120 BC Bob “You guys do know that Cash is one of the worst thing to hold during high inflation.”
I hope you know that Bob, so bring your check book.
Hurry these houses won’t last!! And charm abounds, and build your memories here,and while you at it, you should probably pick up 2 or 3.
ISM Services in the gutter too, sharp drop and it came in under consensus estimates. Pay no attention to the rise in the prices paid index either, inflation is under control.
Any good news today? Sure, 3 day weekend.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. June ISM services index 48.2% vs 51.7 in May
U.S. June ISM services below consensus 51.0%
U.S. June ISM services employment 43.8% vs 48.7% in May
U.S. June ISM services prices 84.5% vs 77.0% in May
110, I saw a few posting by people holding cash waiting to swoop in. Maybe they did not get the message….convert that money to commodities or euros.
My house DP fund is something I plan to make use of within the next year. Commodities & currency plays are too risky for my appetite given the timeframe I’m looking at. I am exposed to both in my longer term portfolio.
While I realize the interest I’m getting is at best only keeping pace with headline inflation (less than real inflation), because my DP fund is earmarked for a house my savings are actually appreciating versus real estate. So, I’m not all that concerned.
If we start to see wage inflation come into play supporting RE prices, I will be a little more concerned. But so far, that hasn’t happened.
#125 NNJ I apologize. I cannot of course confirm that you are a realtor, but I strongly suspect that you are, as you use alot of realtor speak.
If you are not, then you are a recent home buyer, who is deeply concerned about your recent purchase.
#122 NNJ
Going back to one of the original currencies. I’m loading up on cowry shells.
/ off sarcasm
Like BC Bob said. Come to the next GTG.
Yeah, he’s Polish – near Krakow.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Services Unexpectedly Contracted in June as Orders Decline
U.S. service industries unexpectedly contracted in June as orders and employment fell.
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses, which make up almost 90 percent of the economy, decreased to 48.2, the lowest since January, from 51.7 in May. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.
Rising energy costs and the prospect of slower consumer demand are making companies less optimistic and pushing them to trim their own spending on technology and payrolls. Earlier today, the government reported that the U.S. lost jobs in June for a sixth straight month.
“I don’t think there’s any way that you cannot have slowing in the service sector,” John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said before the report. “The housing correction did spread to the rest of the economy.”
Was to Rich, ie the what the heck response.
Small Cap O&G getting obliterated. Hedgies know how to manipulate a market.
129, Thanks for a honest response.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080702/pa_mortgage_mess.html?.v=2
Ex-broker gets 12
There has been considerable debate on the net whether there is an Obama Selloff going on (and some counterbloggers arguing that it is actually a McCain selloff). But here is one tidbit I found that provides a pretty good comparator:
“Interestingly, the 1986 Tax Reform Act increased the capital-gains tax rate from 20 to 28 percent, but investors were given roughly three months before the tax increase was enacted into law.
In turn, investors rushed to realize their gains before the higher tax rate kicked in, and capital-gains realizations remained depressed for nearly a decade thereafter with the higher tax rate in place”
grim, 138 in mod
TMA $0.19 -$0.01 -4.20%
As of 10:02AM 07/03/08
THORNBURG MTG INC NYSE
I am buying at a nickle. The nickle price point makes sense as I want to buy a round lot and I have 100 empty soda cans in my garage that I can cash in. I wonder I Thornburg will accept my 100 cans in lieu of cash for my 100 shares?
#137 Pat,
We should send these mtg scam artists and fraudulent hedgies to Gitmo.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601093&sid=agAS5Q99H6Z8&refer=home
Knowing people are buying 375 dollar steak in the hamptons this weekend gives me great pleasure, not all is bad in the world.
[1] Sas,
New Bedford is a sh*thole of a city. Not so downtrodden as the bronx, but nasty nonetheless, so your observation is not far off. I expect parts of Lawrence, Methuen, Taunton, Chelsea and Holyoke , and the Boston neighborhoods of Mattapan, Roxbury, and parts of Dorchester to follow, if they haven’t already.
Here’s a new marketing gambit, from craigslist:
Home of “LUCK” for Sale (Old Bridge)
We really hate to sell this house because it has brought a lot of luck with it ever since we bought it! We were trying to have a baby for couple of years but weren’t having any luck until we moved into this home in 2006 and in 2007 my wife got pregnent and this year(2008) in March we were blessed a beautiful baby girl :) It’s very tough for my wife to take of baby and this big home so we’ve decided with a heavy heart that we’ll have to sell the house and move into a smaller place (2br apt).
Further to my point in 138. If past is prologue, recall that not long after TRA 86 raised cap gains, the Crash of 1987 occurred.
Not necessarily connected at the hip, or relevant to today, but just saying.
Nom [145],
Spot on.
#144 scribe
Translation:
We bought a mcmansion. It was the largest house we could afford and we made no allowances for things such as job loss, higher food and energy costs, or the expense of daycare. If we can unload this albatross we will actually be able to afford to have one of us sit home with the baby. If we are forced to put the baby in daycare, at $1,400 or so a month we are toast. Please buy our cardboard POS before we become another member of the FB club and get foreclosed on.”
“Do you feel lucky” …. Dirty Harry
120 BC
“Thanks, Jesse Livermore.”
I was going to go with Captain Obvious, but I’m not as sophisticated.
121 bairen
“What makes you think the Euro is undervalued compared to he US dollar?”
One difference I’d note is that they have less government debt.
http://www.zillow.com/real-estate/NJ-Englewood
Zillow cooking numbers?
122 NNJ
“So what are you holding your ‘funds’ in?”
Lotta inflation protected securities at the moment for me.
#149 njp
Actually as a percentage of GDP, some EU members are worse than the US
151
Lotta inflation protected securities at the moment for me.
—————————————-
What kind of securities, wish to be more specific?
101 jamil
Yesterday with the National Man-Boy Love Association references, today with the satanic sex rituals.
Just keepin’ it real?
“Gdzie?” Ty?
“Add 7% inflation to my -5% forecast and you will come ahead by 2% by holding real-estate this year.”
Frank, where did you learn math? If inflation is 7%, you need a 9% return to come ahead by 2%. If your house goes down by 5% and inflation is running at 7%, your behind about 12%.
To all,
While many here know this better then me, be aware that deflation is considered the worst case doomsday event. Global defaltion is the black plauge of the 21st century.
NNJ,
i am holding mine in brass, lead, steel, and salt peter
An 86-year-old man went to his doctor for his quarterly check-up…
The doctor asked him how he was feeling, and the 86-year-old said ,’Things are great and I’ve never felt better.’
I now have a 20 year-old bride who is pregnant with my child.
“So what do you think about that Doc ?”
The doctor considered his question for a minute and then began to tell a story.
“I have an older friend , much like you, who is an avid hunter and never misses a season.”
One day he was setting off to go hunting.
In a bit of a hurry , he accidentally picked up his walking cane instead of his gun.”
“As he neared a lake , he came across a very large male beaver sitting at the water’s edge.
He realized he’d left his gun at home and so he couldn’t shoot the magnificent creature.
Out of habit he raised his cane , aimed it at the animal as if it were his favorite hunting rifle and went ‘bang, bang’.”
“Miraculously , two shots rang out and the beaver fell over dead.
Now, what do you think of that ?” asked the doctor.
The 86-year-old said ,
“Logic would strongly suggest that somebody else pumped a couple of rounds into that beaver.”
The doctor replied , “My point exactly.”
“You guys do know that Cash is one of the worst thing to hold during high inflation.”
-not when your cash is in Swiss Francs.
#129 rent:But so far, that hasn’t happened.
And it’s not going to happen.
“Frank, where did you learn math?”
Ben [156],
Stop talking common sense. Up could be down, forward could be backward, home run could be strikeout.
Nie urojilem w Polsce, mój rodzina jest od Frydman, około Nowy Targ. Ja mam wujek w Krakowie.
Pushing the limits of my written polish.
I’ve got an apartment in Krakow, off of Juliusz Lea, near Stare Miasto. (Mam mieszkanie w Krakowie, od Juliusz Lea, blisko do Stare Miasto?)
Well, we hold our DP as cash, and inflation has taken part of it, for sure.
But I’m not sure if it’s taken more than we’ve saved in price cut projections, maintenance, taxes and non-tangibles (goodwill). I don’t think so.
By goodwill, I refer to family relationships, as well as self-development. We live frugally, and have a mixed bag of offsetting investments. We were able to take advantage of a recent opportunity on a quick relo with package – only because we had no house to sell. How much is that worth in today’s economy?
I’m truly thinking that we’re going to be about $100k ahead overall because we didn’t buy on/after 2000. This factoring in everything – rent, lack of mtg deduction, inflation, etc. I’m using calculations based on a house we looked at in 1999, and adding in approximate numbers for the construction our neighbors have done on it over the past seven years. The house has current comps for only $63k more than they paid in early 2000. The taxes on the home are equivalent to nearly five months of our current rent. Our rental is nearly the same square footage. They’ve had to clear trees, put in new windows, upgrade the bath, make the basement deeper and are now adding an addition.
I agree with 3b, no wage inflation as we are actually heading into deflation, but then again i am an armchair economist at best
grim,
Nice, so any declines in US RE, are offset by your place in Krakow, their RE market has been on fire in the last few years. I know Warsaw is as expensive as NYC.
I’ve officially put Jamil on my ignore list.
re: 157 Kettle1 are you banging the deflation drum too?
Didn’t you ger Bernakes memo? There will be no contraction in the money supply.
Not to mention the exchange rate. What is it now, 2.12? Unbelievable.
grim Says:
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:00 am
I’ve got an apartment in Krakow, off of Juliusz Lea, near Stare Miasto.
g-man: Don’t you also own a submarine with screen windows?
Organic Fertilizer…..other than NY Mets fans, use this……….
http://www.terracycle.net/main_plant_food.htm
163 Pat, where would that be?
NJ Real estate annualized returns in the past 10 years is 8.8%.
Oh, my omission, NNJ. I live in Bucks County.
I’ve got an apartment in Krakow, off of Juliusz Lea, near Stare Miasto.
g-man: Don’t you also own a submarine with screen windows?
Or a helicopter with ejection seats?
Sean 168,
All of those write down and the increasing rate of consumer defaults could start to add up…..
NNJ
does that 8% include taxes, maintenance and insurance costs?
Grim and Frank…I will put in a plug for one of our favorite places to get Eastern European (mostly Polish) groceries…Pulaski meat market in Linden.
Grim and Frank,
Kielbasa on the Grill? (or is that americanized polish food? Heck, is it even polish?)
Kettle, I’m also considering transactions fees [because, as always, the 8 percent is not realized until you sell, and you can’t sell without fees, right?]
175, 8.8% per year is price appreciation.
#175 kettle The real estate bulls always ignore those items not to mention interest cost as well, even with the tax write off.
And of course in Beregn coutny at least, lets not forget an annual tax increase of 6 to 8% a year.
What joy!!!
renting 173,
well if we want to be a little anal…
For improved pilot survivability the Ka-50 is fitted with a NPP Zvezda K-37-800 ejection seat, which is a rare feature for a helicopter.[1] Before the rocket in the ejection seat kicks in, rotor blades are blown away by explosive charges in the rotor disc and the canopy is similarly jettisoned.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamov_Ka-50
NNJ
“Zillow cooking numbers?”
Why do you ask?
http://www.zillow.com/real-estate/NJ
182,
because Englewood shows a 14% price appreciation from last year.
Bairen,
My interpretation of that ad:
The mention of moving to a 2 bedroom apartment suggests that the baby was a surprise, and the loss of the wife’s income made the house unaffordable, in combination with paying too much and/or an ARM.
Kielbasa on the Grill?
It’s Polish, my uncle does it all summer long in Poland, that’s why he’s overweight by 100lbs.
“I’ve officially put Jamil on my ignore list.”
Same
Does NAR sells any of their inventory numbers on a zip or county level? does anyone else?
Let me tell you what I miss about my mostly Polish early childhood hometown – piggies, pierogi and pasties.
No, John, that was not your cue for a story about hookers peeing on your crush valor.
NNJ,
Realize that your 10y annualized rate captures the bubble period in its entirety:
https://njrereport.com/images/njhomeprices_0608.gif
If we use the entire OFHEO NJ HPI dataset (1985-Current), we get a nominal annual rate of 6%.
Playing the 10 year game is fun though.
If we rolled back the clock to 1999 and played the same game, the 10y annualized rate for NJ would have been somewhere around 0.5%.
Frank,
try http://www.realtor.com/homevalues
type in the zip code.
Be careful asking for some Kielbasa at a BBQ. My friend was at a BBQ in Fire Island and he asked for some and could not sit for a week. Thank God he didn’t ask for a foot long wiener.
Anyone have any data on what is going to drive Union County taxes?
I am thinking that foreclosures and tax revenue dropoffs in places like Elizabeth will hit Brigadoon, NP, Summit, and the other train towns in Union County, meaning that they are not immune just because their towns aren’t drying up.
Basically, I need support for my under-asking offer, and one principal argument is that prices should be discounted to reflect future tax increases.
“8.8% per year is price appreciation.”
NNJ,
Akin to an accountant working one side of the ledger. What about the cost to carry? A house is a monster, it sucks up cash as fast as Bergabe prints it. Let’s talk net; taxes, maintenance, improvements, closing costs [in, out], realtor’s commisson and don’t forget the thieves in Trenton, NJ realty transfer tax. Your 8.8% gross is pie in the sky.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?lid=1085627139&pg=5#
It is still amazing that I see homes this expensive for sale all the time. You can only deduct up to a million on the mortgage and if you are rich can’t deduct RE taxes yet houses like this move quicker than capes.
[191] John,
no worries. Love the spicy sausages, whether its kielbasa, linguicia, or good ol’ italian sausage, though I have dialed back my spice intake in recent years.
Though your references to Fire Is. and sitting make me wonder if it had anything to do with spice. Egad!
189, fair enough, I was looking at Pat’s comment that a house purchased in early 2000 would be a bad deal.
————————————
(1985-Current), we get a nominal annual rate of 6%.
———————————–
6% is not terrible, especially when you don’t pay tax on it.
land shark,
192 shark
what do you need support? you are the one with the money, and the seller is the one holding a rapidly depreciating asset. They should be the ones doing any justifying.
It is easier for you to wait and find another house at a cheaper price then it is for them to find another buyer willing to pay their price before prices drop further.
[181] Ket,
While it isn’t an apache, that’s a bad looking mother. Does it really have a dual rotorhead and blades?
More importantly, can you bring it down with a bow and strelya?
BC,
8.8% annualized over 10y?
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Like I said, in 1999 the 10 year annualized rate for NJ, not inflation adjusted, was half a percent.
NNJ
that 6% still does not account for carrying costs.
please repeat after me “a house is not an investment”
#184 Scribe,
We need gary to show up and interpret that ad for us. I think they leveraged up the wazoo on a mcmansion, most likely with an arm that is resetting. Baby is simply causing that house of cards to collapse at a faster rate.
NNJ,
Unless the property is income producing, it’s annual return is 0%, actually negative. The NET annual return can not be calculated until the decaying asset is monetized.
NNJ (183),
Jan 1 – June 30 shows Engelwood median price down -3%, number sold down 29% and number under contract down 8% compared to this same period last year.
Compared to 2006 the median price is down 5.5%, sales down 41% and under contract down 34%
I’m not saying Zillow is “cooking” anything. I’m saying they’re data is flawed. And you used Zillow for your Montclair price gain statement as well?
Flipper trying to flip
http://newyork.craigslist.org/jsy/rfs/741393131.html
“please email at bringmore@hotmail.com.”
From Post # 204,
More appropriate, flipflop@hotmail.com
203 – Based on NJMLS data, which is the primary MLS system for Englewood.
#204
let em burn
grim
whats the difference between the gsmls
and njmls
don’t forget pigs in a blanket! (ok, drooling now)
280 – Different systems, different geographic areas, different owners, separate memeberships. There isn’t a statewide MLS, there are a number of MLS systems across the state, some overlap, others don’t.
NJ.com Gettin’ the word out!!
http://blog.nj.com/jerseyblogs/2008/07/that_house_sold_for_what_track.html
John Says:
BBQ in Fire Island and he asked for some and could not sit for a week. Thank God he didn’t ask for a foot long wiener.
Hmmm, Fire Island, Foot Long Weiner, couldn’t sit for a week….what kind of party was that anyhow? LOL
I have been holding onto cash for the last few months hoping to find a home which I could use that cash as a DP.
I decided to go into hibernation on the buying front for the next 6 months and really don’t know what I want to do with this excess cash. Given the outlook, after Thanksgiving I probably will either purchase or settle in for another year of waiting.
I have considered T-bills or CD’s but neither seems attractive given such high inflation.
This cash is burning a hole in my pocket and I need suggestions.
Oo, dear. You won’t get any from me. I’m a hoarder.
party?
July 3 (Bloomberg) — Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury homebuilder, had its senior unsecured credit rating cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service as weak demand deepens the housing recession.
Moody’s lowered its rating on the Horsham, Pennsylvania- based company’s senior unsecured notes to Ba1 from Baa3, the credit ratings company said today in a statement.
a comp killer in Montclair ,,, Impossible
never,,, all real estate is local
But if you live in MD, can you tell me what internet package you use, is it bundled and any pros or cons you’ve noticed about it over the time you’ve had it?
#213 nicholas: Just do what you are doing, sit tight and wait.
There will be plenty of bargains next Spring/Summer.
Another option is to increase your savings rate to compensate for inflation. With home prices stagnant to falling, saving for a downpayment is possible again. This was a difficult thing to do during the 2004-2006 period as [rational] down payment requirements rose faster than most could save.
From Bloomberg:
Toll Senior Unsecured Notes Cut to Junk by Moody’s
Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury homebuilder, had its senior unsecured credit rating cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service as weak demand deepens the housing recession.
Realize that your 10y annualized rate captures the bubble period in its entirety:
…
Playing the 10 year game is fun though.
It is fun…
March 10, 2000:
NASDAQ
10 year annualized rate of 27.5%! How could you go wrong! The only risk here is not getting in and missing out on the big rewards!
July 3, 2008
NASDAQ
10 year annualized rate of 1.7%
Hope you didn’t expect to keep pace with inflation. Guess you should have bought CD’s.
Prepare for a new wave of trolls…
http://blog.nj.com/jerseyblogs/2008/07/that_house_sold_for_what_track.html
Cool.
#220
Grim, I agree with this. I may not buy my house in 6 months, or even a year, but I know my limits. I can’t lose the $ and I don’t know enough to start messing with commodities and other currencies, so I just save a whole lot.
My stash is growing quickly.
Am I overestimating the cost of an addition?
It’s being made on the short end of a large cape. The cape is made of stucco (original) over stone. The addition looks to be about 75% of the size of the original home.
I was thinking 30k, since there are a lot of builders open right now. Way off?
[218] Pat,
I use verison FIOS and it is amazing. Fiber to the Home (FTTH) should be a constitutional right. I have never had a distruption in service and you can bundle it with telephony services and television.
I don’t have telephone but I do have 300+ television channels that come with it. I would check to make sure that FTTH is available in your area before you move. Verizon runs miles of arial cable around here and it is relatively inexpensive for them to snap it to your home.
[219] 3b,
I am sitting tight because the RE market is downright dangerous around many metro DC markets. I was hoping to catch onto the Thanksgiving/Christmas lull that makes RE soft and lowball someone during that time. If not this year then probably wait for a full year to get serious again.
[221] grim,
I have stepped up my savings rate considerably as I am itching to put the big hurt on someone with waterfront property. I can smell fear in the air as a lot of my brothers run in the construction industry around here. I hear horror stories of overstreched builders more often then not.
With that increased savings it makes my palms even more sweaty because it feels like I am amassing too much cash.
We don’t have FiOs availability. We’re kind of out in the boonies.
#223 grim: And they are going to be in deep, deep denial, and angry;real angry.
Tom,
No, I’m not the guy from JC selling the mower.
All,
Agreed to on the organics. I swear the reason not even dirt grows around areas of our home is due to years of weed killer by previous owners. The best is white vinegar or boiling water or both. I’m currently using sulphur dust and ammonium sulphate per the recommendations Mr. Benner sent me.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/01/garden/01moss.html
I hope to have a gas mower for sale in a few years as I hold my oil short.
Pat,
Contact your congressman about your constitutional right to FTTH.
“Every month I say the same nearly the same thing. The only difference is the numbers change slightly. Here it is again: The BLS should be embarrassed to report this data. Its model suggests that there was 29,000 jobs coming from new construction businesses, 22,000 jobs coming from professional services, and a whopping 177,000 jobs in total coming from net new business creation. The economy has slowed to a standstill and the BLS model still has the economy expanding quite rapidly.”
“Repeating what I have been saying for months now, virtually no one can possibly believe this data. The data is so bad, I doubt those at the BLS even believe it. But that is what their model says so that is what they report.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/04/04/new-york-auto-show-chevy-beat-concept/
New Chevy Beat – 40mpg!!
Doyle Says:
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:46 pm
#220
How much per month?
Grim, I agree with this. I may not buy my house in 6 months, or even a year, but I know my limits. I can’t lose the $ and I don’t know enough to start messing with commodities and other currencies, so I just save a whole lot.
My stash is growing quickly.
Nicholas, I think you work for a telecom.
Happy 4th of July to all!!!
You don’t need to know much to invest in commodities. Buy and hold, it’s pretty simple right now. Don’t mess with futures or shorting or anything. Until the fed decides to raise rates above the rate of inflation, you’ll see good returns. You won’t get rich, you’ll just preserve your purchasing power.
BC (232)-
Lies, lies, lies.
IMO, the only investment decision one needs to make is to come up with an educated guess as to the extent of the gubmint lying and the degree of overstatement to the upside.
Once you’ve got that, your investment plan becomes clear.
All disclaimers. The Tampa Bay Rays also have the best record in baseball.
Builders holding up in Brigadoon???
There is a vacant infill lot near me in Brigadoon that was graded, fenced off, and, if memory serves, I thought it was being dug up for a foundation. Today, while walking the pooch, I noticed that there is no hole and the fencing around the lot was taken down and stacked by the roadside. Two contractor trucks were there, with a couple of guys standing around, but nothing going on.
On an unrelated (?) note, my landlord informed me that there was an NOD recently filed not far from my northside residence.
For those of us worried about higher gas prices:
http://www.mygallons.com/how_it_works.html
Looks like a pretty cool idea. Now I can go out and buy a Hummer and hedge future gas prices increases
Renting
you might want to get on the hedging if you believe this chart. 2012 could be a fun date
http://tinyurl.com/5gasof
211 DINJ
Love it, particularly the comments. e.g. this one regarding falling prices:
Posted by summitite on 07/03/08 at 12:30PM
Oh that’s just great PWayYouKnow, let’s encourage more lower income people to come to NJ so that they can start asking for handouts too.
So obscenely high bubble prices were justified as a means to keep out the riff-raff.
hard to tell if this person is a bull or a bear:
(snip – jb)
“commentPosted by NJD2003Cup on 07/03/08 at 1:22PM
The price drops have not been dramatic when compared to the rest of the country. The price of a home is still way over valued in NJ”
The second sentence echos frank’s theory that we know NJ RE is “on fire” because it’s “overpriced.”
oops
odd cut and paste problem
sorry
only the last two paragraphs were intended to be posted.
231,
Same situation. I’m ready to invest my dp in a double inverse ‘bi’ fund.
239 nom
A “friend” of mine in Brigadoon told me the other day that he just finished building a spec house that went on the market sometime in the past few weeks. He heard I was moving and thought I’d be interested. He’s clearly in a complete state of panic. (This guy is a doctor, btw, and so clearly just another fellow who saw what was going on in RE in 2006 (!) and thought he’d get rich quick – bought in fall ’06, discovered being a GC was complicated, and didn’t get it on the market until now).
In a related story, my new landlord has made it clear that he hopes to sell me the house after I’ve rented it for 18 months.
Not bloody likely.
grim – thanks for the editing. What a blog!
Pat – you’ve got a way with a turn of phrase that constantly has me in stitches.
It’s a dry wit, and it cracks me up.
Fellow Brigadoonians,
Not to worry, properties are still moving here. Take a drive down Rahway Ave. There’s a flurry of “under contract” signs. At or above asking, I’m sure. Only in Brigimmune!
patient (247)-
Perhaps you could give him a little education on what it feels like to be on the recipient end of an enema…
#247 njp
offer him 180k. Have Mrs njp standing by with a camera to capture the look on his face.
Greed meets reality. Priceless.
220 grim
“rational”
Don’t ever say that again.
253 bairen
I might have to do that. Mrs. Patient is in the right mood for it.
njp 250, stop with the love song. You sound like Billy Joel.
And look where it got him.
3b Says:
July 3rd, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Happy 4th of July to all!!!
Where are you? Australia?
“Prepare for a new wave of trolls…”
I call dibs on the one with green hair. I will hang him from my rearview mirror. I will call him “Duck.”
What is everybody high on getting out of work early? Bubbles and Feathers for breakfast?
222 renting
“July 3, 2008
NASDAQ
10 year annualized rate of 1.7%
Hope you didn’t expect to keep pace with inflation. Guess you should have bought CD’s.”
I can’t wait to see what the 10 year annualized rate of the NASQUACK is on July 3, 2010.
I love talking to people who somehow think that their town in NJ is the center of the universe and everyone is trying to get in there.
[251] Twice,
Are you the realtor Mrs. Nom just fired?? (who is pretty p.o.’ed right now and made a lot of noise about possibly interfering in our future offers).
Prices have been dropping in Brigadoon and I can list at least six price drops and/or withdrawals that I am aware of. There are also houses sitting for weeks at reduced prices for reasons that I cannot fathom except that they are not near downtown. That said, some houses may go for list or more (one on Wells went for more and if it is the house I am thinking of, I cannot understand why).
251 twice
“Not to worry, properties are still moving here. Take a drive down Rahway Ave. There’s a flurry of “under contract” signs. ”
what percentage of deals are falling through these days?
John Says:
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:46 am
Be careful asking for some Kielbasa at a BBQ. My friend was at a BBQ in Fire Island and he asked for some and could not sit for a week. Thank God he didn’t ask for a foot long wiener.
JJ: This sounds like a chapter from Ed Koch’s autobiography about his wild younger days…..
225 doyle
“My stash is growing quickly.”
Like Giambi!
#264
When I was a kid I thught Ed Koch and Frank Purdue were the same guy.
Pat Says:
July 3rd, 2008 at 11:43 am
Let me tell you what I miss about my mostly Polish early childhood hometown – piggies, pierogi and pasties.
Pat: Here are REAL Polish-Americans…..
http://www.youtube.com/dasuperfans
Now THAT is a great beginning to a detective novel.
Bairen’s childhood memory, I mean.
#269 Pat,
Exactly. But did anyone ever see them in the same place together? I think not. Maybe I wasn’t so far off.
Clark Kent = Super Man
Ed Koch = Chicken King?
256, ouch!
265 i was thinking exactly that!
266 frank purdue looks like a chicken!!
sl
262 nom
“Are you the realtor Mrs. Nom just fired?? (who is pretty p.o.’ed right now and made a lot of noise about possibly interfering in our future offers).”
Presumably you dropped the phrase “tortious interference”?
I would guess by the pun “Brigimmune” that he was laying the sarcasm on thick.
Maybe too thick, I just can’t seem to understand why he would load up so much sarcasm in the same paragraph.
Do they really call themselves “Brigadoonians”?
Brigadoonites?
“I would guess by the pun “Brigimmune” that he was laying the sarcasm on thick.”
Agree – twice shy is no bull.
Brigadiers?
Patient #247,
This person seems to be in panic mode in my beloved Brigadoon. Nice winter pics..
http://cnj.craigslist.org/rfs/708009403.html
Brigidongs
Brigidolts
#277 bystander
“—The house is located right in the middle of prestigious Westfield, NJ: ”
Did they measure it? The location and the prestige level that is.
I love the winter pics. Wonder if they have finshed the house since then? Pics look like there needs to be some work done.
Seriously, don’t these Graydon and Kayden poster children know that everyone knows the real deal by now?
Why do they insist on the farce?
“look like there needs to be some work done.”
Nah. Particle-board exterior is the new black.
[262] Nom,
No, I’m not your former realtor nor am I connected with the business. I’m actually one of the longest-running RE bears who have been on this site practically since its inception. I rarely post any more because I don’t have much to add that hasn’t been pointed out by many others.
Your market observations are correct. Even at this stage of the decline, however, good values in Westfield are few and far between, but they are starting to emerge. One just has to ferret them out.
http://www.zillow.com/real-estate/NJ-Westfield
Westfield 1 year change 2.5%
Bystander [277],
Thanks for that link. This town is littered with these huge, impersonal storage containers masquerading as starter castles. Take a drive down Washington St., there are two going up right now that never should have passed code. It’s a disgrace. I see new construction that dwarfs surrounding houses, eliminate sun and breeze, with minimal set back and ten feet or less between property lines. The town doesn’t care about the character of it’s increasingly blighted residential streets, or neighborhoods, only about it’s tax dollars.
Sorry, but [sarcasm off] on this one.
OT
i guess this woman heard about the break in in bergen county the other day?
Woman Has Babies, Knife, Gun in Stroller
UTICA, NY (AP) — Police say a woman out for a walk with her baby and another child was packing more than diapers in her stroller.
Stephanie Wilson is charged with endangering the welfare of a child and criminal possession of a weapon after pulling a knife and a sawed-off shotgun out of the stroller to threaten another woman. Police say the two had an ongoing argument over money.
Utica Public Safety Commissioner Dan LaBella says he’s never seen anything like it in his 20-year law enforcement career.
“It’s pretty sad when individuals have to put a child at risk by carrying weapons in a stroller,” LaBella said.
The 29-year-old Wilson is being held in jail without bail pending a court appearance. Her baby was turned over to social workers, while the older child was taken by a relative.
Brigadoonese
NNJ,
Did you look at post 203 above in regard to Englewood? Your supporting data (Zillow) is flawed.
brigaphiles
brigaphobias
njpatient
Sounds like we have the same landlord. Mine told me he had interested buyers and so could only give me a 6 month extension on the lease. He told me the price these buyers were going to pay, it was more than 20% over the what the nearly identical house next door sold for in February of 2008. What the %#&$&$#? I didn’t bite. I’m still here, and no one has looked at the house since I moved in.
Brigadoon, Lorna Doone. 220, 221, whatever it takes.
Correction to 284 for the grammar police:
“it’s” should be “its” (possessive) I’m losing it . . .
from AP
States face dwindling unemployment insurance funds
Thirty-three states have funds below recommended levels, meaning they’re at risk of running out in less than a year unless they’re replenished as required under federal law. Nearly half the states could run out in less than six months.
In New York, the fund stands at about $694 million, compared to potential payouts that could top $3 billion…….
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ju2_TprBDgMK4y38J6ORzpO5Ym-wD91LUIM00
Bystander [277],
I looked again at those pix and just realized I know the house. What a travesty. Tore down a colonial POS and built this new POS on the same POS lot. That takes brains.
More on fictitious bids.
I made an offer on a home about 18% below asking price. It has sat on the market for about 360 days.
They didn’t reply for about a week. I nudged my RE agent to find out why they were taking so long with the offer. Just counter if you don’t think the offer is any good.
They eventually replied with “No thanks, we already have an offer on the home for more then what you bid”.
I just sat there scratching my head for a moment trying to understand the situation. You didn’t counter because you already have a better offer? Just brilliant.
Four more months later it is still sitting on the market. So much for trying to invent a fake bidder to drive up the purchase price.
Here’s the same house for sale and for rent in summit. 489k to buy or $2,350 to rent.
MLS#: 2535410
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=89707&mxp=29&bd=4&typ=1&sid=60d91563aa454259994a9254c3dc3827&pg=2&lid=1100378635&lsn=14&srcnt=14#Detail
Paying full price with 20% down, 30 year fixed at 6.22
Let’s see
Mtg $2,400
Taxes $500
Loss of Interest on DP $250
$3,150 a month to own or $2,350 to rent. And I didn’t count the maintenance costs, probably another $400 a month at least on average.
Still much cheaper to rent than own I believe.
Beyond Subprime: Banks’ Top 5 Problem Loan Areas
Rather than ending, the credit crunch is moving beyond its subprime mortgage origins. According to Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist of RightSide.com, the top five problem loan sectors to watch now are:
* Credit card debt
* Home equity loans
* Commercial real estate loans
* Commercial and development loans
* Derivatives generally ($182 trillion notional value)
The Star-Ledger write-up was nice, although it disappeared from their front page pretty quickly. I’m sure Kara Homes and K. Hovnanian made a few calls to their friends in the advertising department reminding how much they drop on print ads…
Did we ever arrive at a working definition of Comp Killer? I have been trying to do work-related stuff at work (for a change) and I haven’t been following the threads with my former F5 frenzy.
To the Law-minded folks on the board; a fried of mine has the following dilemma and is soliciting advice:
“Ok, I really need your guys help on a decision. Today, I found out I got accepted to Villanova law school off the waiting list & I don’t know what to do. Here’s the scenario:
Villanova-full time, cheaper tuition, live outside Philly
Seton Hall-2 deposits down (lose $1000), part time, closer to NYC, live in Newark/South Orange”
Any advice would be appreciated in terms of school quality, etc..
Trickle-down effect turns upside down
At North Las Vegas’ Bargain Pawn, nearly every transaction has a back story: Someone is struggling through hard times. Lately the shop has been seeing a rush of middle-class customers. A lot of them seem to have jobs in real estate and auto sales, manager David Bramlett said.
Customers say they’re facing foreclosure, no longer have credit cards and need cash. That’s where Bramlett’s pawnshop comes in. They hock jewelry, electronics, guns.
“They bluntly tell us, I never had to pawn anything in my life and here I am.”
Rich, if the Zillow data is wrong then it is unfortunate. Grim I think implied that Zillow gets data from NJMLS.
Zillow is trash, it would be wise to ignore it. This goes for both the postive and negative numbers you’ll find there.
NPR Story
Elizabeth Warren On The Rising Cost Of Credit Debt
Inflation? What inflation?
RADNOR, PA – June 30, 2008 – Airgas, Inc. (NYSE:ARG) today announced that beginning August 1, 2008, or as contracts permit, its operating units will increase prices on gases and equipment. Prices will increase, on average, as follows:
20% for bulk and cylinder acetylene, argon, and hydrogen
15% for bulk and cylinder oxygen, nitrogen, carbon dioxide, helium, and specialty gases
15% for cylinder and bulk equipment rental fees
Prices will also increase for hardgoods and safety supplies, and delivery and other service charges.
These actions are being implemented in response to increases in product costs from suppliers and rising operating costs at Airgas plants and distribution facilities, driven by higher raw material, energy, electricity, and labor costs. Rising metal prices are also driving up costs for cylinders, bulk tanks, gas handling plants, and equipment.
“Costs continue to escalate rapidly, while strong demand is sustained across our customer base,” said Airgas Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Peter McCausland. “Airgas associates are working hard every day to enhance our supply chain and meet our customers’ needs. We will continue to invest in our infrastructure so we can meet the demands of our customers, improve operating efficiencies, and fulfill the safety and security requirements of our industry.”
I’m all over her great intentions. But she’s not tough enough. Sheeple are used to being whipped. If she’s decided to toss out a few crumbs for the peons who don’t have a pot to piss in, she needs to figure out an angle first.
How is she going to get to them around the pylon nature of information dissemination?
NNJ (300),
Grim was stating that the numbers I posted come from NJMLS the primary MLS for Bergen County (Englewood).
Makes me wonder if Zillow is using asking prices instead of sold!
Sybarite Says:
July 3rd, 2008 at 4:16 pm
To the Law-minded folks on the board; a fried of mine has the following dilemma and is soliciting advice: “Ok, I really need your guys help on a decision. Today, I found out I got accepted to Villanova law school off the waiting list & I don’t know what to do. Here’s the scenario: Villanova-full time, cheaper tuition, live outside Philly Seton Hall-2 deposits down (lose $1000), part time, closer to NYC, live in Newark/South Orange”
Any advice would be appreciated in terms of school quality, etc..
sybs: I think most lawyers would say that given those choices, they would take a job in finance in NYC……and you think I’m kidding…..
OT,
everyone ready for more “atlanta run dry” stories? last summers water supply problems may have only been a preview. the linked graph shows that lake lanier ( the primary water source) never recovered and is already dropping.
How do you short atlanta’s water supply????
charts
http://tinyurl.com/57eb3q
298 Syb
Sadly, I agree with Chifi
weird.
I was moderated on this:
http://tinyurl.com/62wxz8
whats with the Graydon?
I am actually curious, is it hypothetical possible to somehow short a regional water supply in the short term?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/35529-claymore-s-new-water-etf-more-of-a-pure-play-than-powershares
My husband told me the price of our spring water has dropped by at least 30%.
He does the heavy stuff.
I’m worried that if families have started drinking tap water instead of bottled, then maybe they’re not buying milk, either. Anybody heard?
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/news-article.aspx?storyid=112727
re: (307) Kettle1
I have family in Atlanta and the grass has been brown for a long time. Georgia is fighting over the Tennessee River and have launched a longshot bid to move its state line north to the Tennessee River in pursuit of water for drought-stricken Atlanta.
The Governor is suing to correct an 1818 survey that mistakenly placed Georgia’s northern line just short of the Tennessee River, which will most likely go to the Supreme Court.
http://www.ajc.com/services/content/metro/stories/2008/03/26/tenn_0327.html
R. Patrick, I’ve just been hanging around, practicing yoga and getting a little depressed about the things people are saying about stuff.
Now that I’ve been named the official spokesperson for 75% of children living in or moving to Bergen County during the real estate run-up, I’ve had to re-evaluate my priorities. My Dad says so.
My Mom got a really small car and I don’t like it because there’s no TV in the headrest like in the big square truck thing.
I had to go to Grandma’s for two weeks when men came to replace buckled siding on our new house last week.
Mom says I can’t have my own pony after all.
I go to soccer and karate, but I used to go to polo, horseback riding, tennis, and some other kinds of lessons.
Mom’s been going out at night a lot lately, and I’ve heard her call some guy named John.
Sean,
thats unfortunate for your family, they should start doing rain dances immediately and hope for a couple of hurricanes
hmmm, everyone went home?
NJ patient….. come on you never go home!
How many people do you think we have to get together to get a good deal on real mowers directly from indonesia?
pat
why are you worried about people drinking milk?
317, LOL
Is that John or going out on dates with Johns
tom 320
an order or 20 perhaps.
kettle1,
have you ever ordered anything from overseas like that or known anyone that has? A few years ago I tried contacting one of the merchants on that site but never heard anything from them. I forget what it was for.
“L.A., Miami Home Foreclosure Rates More Than Double”
http://tinyurl.com/6g65gh
SAS
tom,
a friend of mine ordered a “lot” of model airplane engines for him and the group of people he flew with, from india.
Apparently he had a similar issue, but was to eventually get them. its does seem to be easier said then done though
“Obama Got Discount on Home Loan”
http://tinyurl.com/6dxh4q
SAS
Grim .. Ryming ..etc..
Can you tell me status on this mls# 2506909.
It dropped off Realtor.com. Is it UC or withdrawn..?
Thanx
test
SAS
Pat Says:
July 3rd, 2008 at 6:13 pm
claymore-s-new-water-etf-more-of-a-pure-play-than-powershares
ALSO: PIO over PHO
Pat Says:
July 3rd, 2008 at 6:21 pm
I’m worried that if families have started drinking tap water instead of bottled, then maybe they’re not buying milk, either. Anybody heard?
MANY SOFT DRINK COMPANIES ARE UNDER PRESSURE AS INPUT COSTS HAVE RISEN, BUT FURTHER, MOST OF THE US REVENUE GROWTH (if any) HAS BEEN FROM NON-TRADITIONAL PRODUCT LINES SUCH AS BOTTLED WATER AND DERIVATIVES. SALES HAVE DROPPED….NOT DRAMATICALLY, BUT THE EFFECT IS THERE…
ping!
Housing Purgatory
great handle.
319 kettle
didn’t
just got busy
was supposed to be going to the ballgame and see PGC, but that didn’t happen either.
(330)
HEY! Cut that out!
We’re trying to get some sleep over here!
Instead it sounds like the set of ‘Red October’.
Actually, it was the yelling in post 329 that woke everyone up. I thought Chi was going to attach Pat!
333
Hee!!
Is that not allowed?
Ping!
http://tinyurl.com/6p7j72
:)
Well if you like borsch perhaps, but I’ve eaten better in an oily GALLEY. My wife said to the waiter, “where did this man learn to cook? AFGHANISTAN? So then we went on to the Bolshoi ballet, to see this new girl Gizelle. Well, you remember how BEAUTIFUL she was! Well, she just married a factory manager and…
Housing purgatory,
MLS # 2506909
Went under contract 7/1
333 njp
Thanx
I kinda liked it as well .. it seemed to fit. no matter what side of the fence your on it seems to feel like torture..
342 rhyming
Thank you once again for the info.
Thanks for the article. It’s really new to me; I hope it brings awareness to other person who doesn’t aware with a plan to actually create one.
Visit At:wills