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From the Philly Inquirer:
Tourists, Shore business owners facing an unsettled summer
The Hilton Hotel & Casino in Atlantic City is giving away $2,500 gas cards to 50 table and slots players this month. The Angel of the Sea bed and breakfast in Cape May is offering an “economic stimulus package,” which includes a free dinner at a local restaurant and a bottle of champagne.
High gas prices and the economy are on the minds of both anxious Jersey Shore business owners and cost-conscious tourists as the official start of summer – the July 4th weekend – begins.
Beachgoers are thinking twice about their visits – planning shorter stays, skipping day trips, and spending less money.
In 2007, tourism statewide generated $38 billion – much of that Shore revenue. While it’s too early to project this summer’s economic outlook at the Shore, business owners are getting creative on ways to “retrain guests” on how to spend – especially during the week.
“This is probably the first time I’ve ever considered not taking a day trip or overnight trip because of the price of gas. I’m coming down less frequently and adding $140 I know it’s going to cost both ways to fill up the van,” said Stephanie Mossip of Collegeville, Pa., who sat with her two children on a bench along a breezy and quiet Ocean City boardwalk earlier this week.
Happy independence day!
>>
In other news
http://www.nypost.com/seven/07032008/business/the_feds_have_come_up_with_an_exit_tax__118342.htm
The new law, bill JCX-44-8, reads like this: “In general, the provision imposes tax on certain US citizens who relinquish their US citizenship and certain long-term US residents who terminate their US residency. Such individuals are subject to income tax on the net unrealized gain in their property as if the property had been sold for its fair market value.”
Our new hometown in Maryland is extremely small and movie-set looking.
A lot of the women seem to have that Barbie, long, blonde hair look. I’m worried that if I don’t find a job quickly, I’ll turn into some kind of psuedo short, brown-haired, Stepford wife.
But the layout is efficient. A short hop our new rental home-sweet-home is a small plaza with a grocery store, hair salon, pizza and some other shops.
If we head across the street, we have the elementary school. Past that is a sushi place, the library, a hardware store, and some kind of country restaurant.
A farm with stables and riding lessons is less than a mile, if I remember correctly. We can bike to the middle school, and bike to the pool.
I’m thinking we are going to get into much better shape and save a good bit on gas. I noticed this feature as soon as we pulled into town. We weren’t originally going for the walkability thing, as it’s not been even a remote possibility in most of the towns near me in Bucks.
But when I saw it – the walkability loomed and overrode most of the other items we were looking for (like a basement and less than 20 year old construction).
4th’s!
For those interested in Polish music, the following is a great CD: http://cdbaby.com/cd/bmarshalltexas (folk songs of Polish immigrants to Texas)
Going to be a quiet weekend here. Everyone have a safe and happy 4th.
Had a Polish band at our wedding, they did a cover of Comfortably Numb. I’ll leave the rest to your imagination.
Happy 4th of July everyone!!
I think its not a good idea to go to beach today, as originally planned. Thoughts?
Ha. I’d love to hear the comfortably numb polka, or heck any pink floyd on the accordion.
“Going to be a quiet weekend here.”
We could all use a break from all the doom and gloom in the local re and financial markets :)
No weekly sheriff’s auction today either so homeowners don’t have to be worried about independence from their homes.
Maybe we can declare Independence from this economy… maybe secede from the union and and form the Grim Nation.. Jobs for all… Affordable housing, Single malt and cuban cigars all around..
Grim Nation.. Jobs for all… Affordable housing, Single malt and cuban cigars all around..
Cuba? But I can’t grow a decent beard. Just the mere mention of this should throw RE101 into a fit.
In regards to yesterday’s entry. Wonder if there’s going to be a rash of firework accidents in foreclosed homes.
Good thing all the plasma’s and other toys have already been put in storage.
http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20080702/capt.c81c80a16a0a49cda862ad9aa629441b.china_olympics_security_drill_xin103.jpg?x=400&y=261&sig=4R0Jw6BL.Zln0e0mx5BW7Q–
“China’s armed police demonstrate a rapid deployment during an anti-terrorist drill ”
>>
I’m not a security expert but the idea of driving in a straight line with no thick armor seems foolish.
“Tourists, Shore business owners facing an unsettled summer”
Bunch of nonsense, have you seen the traffic on the GSP heading to the shore? the heaviest I have seen in many years.
To the extent that they face an unsettled summer, maybe its because the weather’s been gorgeous during the week and junky on weekends.
Looks like my plans may be rained out today. I hope everyone has a happy and safe 4th.
Grim, any chance there was video of the band covering Comfortably Numb?
Perogis and Roger Waters… perfect together. :)
A little doom and gloom to get you through the day.
Apologies if this has already been posted: http://uk.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUKN2634924420080630
Enjoy.
…loan holders are responsible for inspecting the property securing a VA-guaranteed loan immediately after becoming aware that its physical condition may be in jeopardy.
…
Inspections During Liquidation. The regulatory requirement for monthly inspections after the start of liquidation proceedings states that when the security property is owner-occupied such inspections are not required.However, because of the potential for abandonment … VA believes regular inspections (at least monthly) should be conducted during this time.
http://www.homeloans.va.gov/circulars/26_08_9.pdf
grim (7)-
When the band plays Comfortably Numb at your wedding, there’s generally nowhere left to go but down. :)
Happy 4th!
Oh boy, I’m busy trying to buy some RE and I miss a gun ownership argument?!?! Oh wow… I’m gettin old. Sigh.
Let me tell you a true story. (storytime!)
I was 7 years old. My brother was 11. We lived in an apt in Edison, the crappy kind with 4 doors on the lower hallway floor, 4 upstairs, 8 apts total in each hallway. I was introduced to many, many illicit things in those hallways. But I digress.
One summer day, we were playing “army” outside with some other neighborhood kids. My mom was getting ready to take us Dorney Park. She wasn’t getting ready fast enough.
“Moose”, the kid with the coke bottle glasses was standing at the edge of the last building in the complex when his shirt fluttered and he proceeded to walk over to us with the shirt hem in his fingers, saying “look at this”… there, at the near bottom of his shirt that had a picture of Fonzi and said “Ayyyyyyyyyy” beneath it, was a small perfectly round hole. About the size of a BB. We all looked at it and after some ideas on what happened, we wanted to start playing again and my brother went over the corner of the building to pick up Moose’s “toy gun” from where he had dropped it.
I was already jogging up the hill to the next building with my team to go hide. My brother bent down to pick up the toy gun and immediately slapped his hand against his neck and proceeded to, in slow motion and for what seems like forever, twirl in circles back towards our hallway door, opposite the huge courtyard. He screamed and screamed and screamed. I stopped and was dumbfounded, embarrased even, feeling awkward as to why my brother would make a spectacle of himself…
He had been shot.
It’s still in his neck. It’s too close to his spine to operate. Let’s not imagine what a single, financially insecure woman was going thru while the neurosurgeons at JFK hospital kept him in the hospital bed day after day with a neck collar and dire warning not to move, don’t even “blink”, they said, while they tried to decide what to do…it was TOUCHING his spinal cord.
My mother was dating a “high” official in Edison. He immediately had the EPD do a search for guns in the neighborhood. Within 1 sq mile, they found 254 ILLEGALLY owned guns.
It’s too bad you become “for” gun control only after a loved one gets hurt.
And lastly, I don’t confuse gun control with gun removal. Have all the guns you want. But be LEGALLY trained in their safe use before you can buy them, license the purchase of ammo and register every gun, no matter where it’s sold, and require cradle to grave responsibility for the gun, just like they do for hazardous waste. (Did you know your town just probably paid a huge sum because it sent paints and waste oil to a landfill years ago? That’s cradle to grave responsibility)
Anyway, just in case your neighbor feels the need to sit in a tree and look at you through a telescopic sight, we’ll know how many guns he has and how long we have to wait before he runs out of bullets.
Guns are for sissies that can’t fight like a man. :)
PS- I did own a snub nose .22 when I lived in the south, to shoot snakes away from the edge of the pond I swam in. But I could have easily done it with rocks.
/flamesuit on :)
23 Spam
Where did that come from?
how about those WMDs? oh wait… we gave him the components… we better goto war and get them back.
Iraq oil deals fulfill Cheney’s goals
http://tinyurl.com/5krynm
SAS
16 frank
“Bunch of nonsense, have you seen the traffic on the GSP”
Those are people who got foreclosed and are leaving the state.
Reminds me of a story.
Winter break, was snowing outside, we had our fill of sledding and snowball fights. We were hanging out at a friends house, and he pulls out a “toy” crossbow. We proceed to lose all the bolts, almost immediately, out the window. Instead of going back out to retrieve them, we start using pencils (yes, we sharpened them first). After the entire school years’ worth were lost in the snow, we basically start shooting anything that will fit in the slide, BIC pens, straws, BBQ skewers, etc. (I didn’t say we were bright kids.) At this point, there was nothing cylindrical left in the house, well except for the old fountain pen we found. As my friend starts pulling back the bow (I know I said toy above, but this thing had a steel bow and cable), he slips, out rockets the fountain pen.
Straight … into … my … ass.
Did I mention it had India ink in it?
And I’ve *STILL* got the tattoo to prove it.
Stay safe kids.
26 Patient
Oh I was more optimistic. I thought they were the ones vacationing at the shore because they can’t afford to go outside the area.
27 Grim
Great story! You might be the youngest tattooed person here.
“Bullish on Philadelphia
New mayor wants to reverse population outflow, attract more businesses”
http://tinyurl.com/6msmso
SAS
This is good, and definitely not a confidence builder regarding the economy.
Watch it.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/03/AR2008070303317.html
Patient/lostinny,
I thought they were just parked there until the owners next pay check cleared so they could fill up and continue.
Lost
Spam was responding to a con law discussion the other day about the 2nd an 14th amendments.
Spam – despite my pro-gun view of the second amendment, I believe gun owners should be licensed and insured as drivers are, and that penalties should ensue for shooting drunk or letting your gun fall into non-licensed hands.
So the NRA would count me as anti-gun despite my 2nd amendment stance.
“UBS Says It May Avoid Quarterly Loss, Doesn’t Need More Capital”
http://tinyurl.com/6enfqe
SAS
Deep breath people.
Ah, that Jersey air.
Frank,
There may just be a lot of traffic heading to the shore this year, but not in spite of gas prices, because of them. We changed our family vacation from North Carolina to the Jersey shore because of gas prices. We can’t be the only people staying closer to home because of $4.00 gas.
KL
interesting article out of WSJ.
think this link should work.
“Toyota Throws More Weight
Behind Its Homes Unit”
http://tinyurl.com/65dwqg
SAS
Finally, someone w/ a brain!!
“Those oil price-boosting trends he’s referring to are the declining dollar (oil is traded in dollars), the failure of the Federal Reserve to do nothing with interest rates (in other words, not to increase them), which further weakens the dollar, and the prospects of higher oil prices, spurred by sharply increasing Chinese demand.”
“City Faces More Anguish at the Pump”
http://tinyurl.com/5w4zat
SAS
July 4th…time to celebrate America in 2008…..
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aVRw0iPJled0&refer=us
How about a shout out for being Libertarian???
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080704/ts_afp/climateenvironmentbiofuelsworldbankusbritain
Booya…..
http://www.nypost.com/seven/07042008/sports/mets/skidding_mets_a_real_fight_club_118486.htm
Former Republican N.C. Sen. Jesse Helms dies at 86
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080704/ap_on_re_us/obit_helms
Happy Fourth!!!! Jessie Helmes should ride in the back of the bus on the way to the cemetary!!!
UBS facing more write downs .
Alos, Jesse Helms is dead .
“The three-bedroom, two-bath home he bought for $312,000 with no money down is now worth $184,000, according to Zillow. But a slightly smaller house near him is listed at $125,000 and has been on the market for 119 days. Within a mile, he counts nearly 80 homes owned by banks or in varying states of foreclosure.”
In comparison, NJ RE market is on fire.
http://www.sacbee.com/103/story/1059872.html
Hey just a curiousity question:
Circa first qtr 2001, a friend got a mortgage for 9.25% ARM which would reset after 5 years.
Was this a bad rate, a good rate or a middle-of-the road rate?
I got a mortgage Apr-May of 2000 and was at around 8% fixed. (have since refi’d).
But I think ARMs are supposed to be lower rates because of the risk?
Anyone remember back then that can enlighten me?
and while I’m still here…
Grim,
Can you post this link on the site? It’s much better than the “atthebeach” link for tax info…I got it from someone here but don’t recall…
I use it often. It’s ALL counties, up to date, provided by Monmouth Cty.
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/prc6.cgi?menu=index&ms_user=glou&passwd=data&district=0801&mode=11
(all counties, no registration)
And here’s more I would think might be good permanent links on the site…
Here’s the online public records where you can search for how much a property is mortgaged for (and heloc’d) (and 2nd mortgaged) (and tax liened), etc… :)~
I’m also using these links quite often…
http://204.8.192.169/localization/menu.asp
_______________
somerset county public records
http://mcweb1.co.morris.nj.us/TaxBoard/SearchTR.jsp
_______________
morris county
http://oprs.co.monmouth.nj.us/oprs/clerk/clerkhome.aspx?op=basic
_________________
monmouth cty
http://www.oceancountyclerk.com/wb_or1/or_sch_1.asp
____________
ocean cty
http://clerk.ucnj.org/UCPA/DocIndex
_________
Union cty
http://www.co.burlington.nj.us/departments/countyclerk/records/search.htm
______________
burlington cty
http://208.48.197.211/or_web1/or_sch_1.asp
_____________
Atlantic cty
Hudson, Mercer, Hunterdon – not online (rat ba’stads! :) (AFAIK, anyway… someone else may be able to find them…)
Is there anyone who can tell me what 30 Valley View in Morristown sold for?
$504000.
9.25% ARM in 2001 was a subprime mortgage.
10: ask, and youtube will provide: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4vQfGsbORY&feature=related
(tangential story) when we did target archery, the rule was don’t even put your arrow to the string until the archery marshal had checked the field and called “clear”… being in the wilds of washington, this morphed into “clear of deer”. things we shot instead of the hay bales: rocks (rock won), forgotten shovel (shovel lost) and worm (i was briefly “alia wormslayer”). we had a few crossbows, too… they were too close to guns for me to try. (i felt guilty enough about the worm)
“World must brace for oil beyond $150”
http://tinyurl.com/592j3s
sas
SAS, two years ago, when my husband bought his Toyota, I literally came on JB’s blog and stated that I wished I could get a house built by Toyota.
O.K., who from Toyota has been on this blog since July of ’06? Fess up.
I knew it was a good idea then, and it’s still a good idea.
http://homeinbabylon.com/reo-directory/
just for fun some guy in Long Island hyperlinked all the bank reo sites on one web page. pretty cool.
The Top Ten Foreclosing Banks
Courtesy of State Senator Jeff Klein, 34th district. Linked from a commenter on New Jersey Real Estate Report.
Here are the top 10 foreclosing banks for the last 13 months and the number of foreclosure filings they have made in NYC, Westchester and Nassau. Please note that this list only reflects the final bank to own a foreclosed loan, which is not necessarily the bank that originated the loan.
Deutsche Bank 2299
Wells Fargo 1791
.U.S. Bank, N.A. 1711
HSBC 989
JP Morgan Chase 838
Bank of New York 807
Washington Mutual, Inc. 673
Fremont Investment & Loan 622
Citigroup 582
Countywide 520
“O.K., who from Toyota has been on this blog since July of ‘06? Fess up.”
i think I have.
SAS
actually, I think I’ve been here since 05.
I remember the Tree house for sale, and I think that was in 05.
SAS
I also remember the tree house. Oh, how times have changed.
whatever happened to that tree house?
SAS
SAS,
You work for Toyota?
What a hot, mosquito-overcast, go-to-the-fireworks-or-not? kind of day. My husband woke up with my headcold, which I think I got from Rich over the internet.
Don’t inhale when you read my posts.
Anyway, here’s another vid for today, Alia:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgPsiLsT0CA
eek. That’s not the one. This one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4QIvQcUPzc
Sorry Pat, I blame my 11-month-old.
Summertime and headcolds, it just seems… wrong.
btw blokes…
I highly recommend watching this documentary. If you want to see what NJ & rest of the states will look like if things continue down its current path, watch the docu.
“Memoria del Saqueo (Memory of the Looting, a Social Genocide)
A film by Pino Solanas, in Spanish w/English subtitles.
The film highlights how, after the fall of Argentina’s military dictatorship in 1983, the political class, the judiciary, the labor unions and social institutions sold out to the international financial institutions and brought Argentina to the massive social rebellion of 2001.”
I can’t find the version with english subtitles on uTube or google video.
SAS
Rock on Skillman! Yea!!!!
“You work for Toyota?”
no.
I work in “international business relations” doing outside contract work for various companies.
SAS
ooops, I get it now.
I read Pat’s post wrong.
nope, I don’t work for toyota.
SAS
EEeewww..what a boring day even you guys seem unusually mellow today. I watched TV and ate..waiting to find out if Allendale will do fireworks tonight or not…OKOK..way back at the top of the posts is the Polish wedding/ pk Floyd comments…the most fun wedding I ever went to was a polish one and yes, there was an accordian and don’t put down accordian fun if you’ve never tried it…back to endless snacking..
just for fun some guy in Long Island hyperlinked all the bank reo sites on one web page. pretty cool.
I know that “some guy”
Laurie, I’ve made fun of tubas and Duck and CF and such.
But I’ll never, ever put down accordians, or accordian players. I’ve actually given it a go. At the time, I was deeply involved with ‘Polka as PhysEd’ at Penn State.
Nothing compares to a good accordian player at a Polish wedding.
Laurie:
I’m working.
Had plans on getting every da*n document dealt with this weekend, not off to a good start…
But hey! I’m saving gas! :)
It is a boring day. I left my husband trying to sleep upright on the recliner, and spent the morning cruising furniture sales and cuddling with my daughter on couches I don’t own. We’ll have empty space on the truck, so we thought we’d pick up new living room and dining room furniture, finally.
But I realize now that I have no furniture buying skills.
We were sprawled on the end of this long red plush sofa. From the row behind, I heard a guy dickering with a salesman. We both slowly turned and peeked over the back of the sofa. Indian dude, in sandals and khaki pants up to his chest standing next to a very average salesman lookeing down at this prissy loveseat and chair. “No, No, I will indeed be taking this chair for one hundred dollars. I will buy this small sofa and this chair. One hundred dollars.”
I never even knew you could start at a hundred dollars. I bet they’re still there.
Just back from Brigadoon. Haven’t been there in years. Downtown is bigger and nicer then I remembered.
I did see a few teenagers putting their fine Brigadoon High education to work. They were skateboarding without any protective gear on the wrong side of the street.
Stu and I officially pronounce the 2008 Jersey Shore season dead. On this holiday week, we have experienced no traffic at the NJ Turnpike Merge, no traffic heading south on the GSP, no traffic on the causeway out to LBI or on the island itself, no waits at popular breakfast places, no problem getting a last minute reservation for 8 on July 4th, and most important for our 3 year old no wait to redeem his tickets for prizes at Fantasy Island in Beach Haven and lots of for sale signs on the island.
Do you think 2009 will be a good year to buy a beach house?
One more thing – no problem snagging prime parking spots in Beach Haven, or anywhere else on the island.
# 16 75, 76, and 77:
I wonder to what extent the parkway traffic seen is just a reflection on the number of people who have moved to the area. Thirty years ago, there were far fewer people commuting from southern Monmouth County and Ocean County to points north. It was not that long ago that Lacy Twp. was the end of the world. Now there are express buses into NYC from even further south. The traffic one used to see on Fridays was Bennies heading down to Seaside, etc. Now, it seems as much to be mostly folks trying to get home to make dinner and get the kids to little league games.
Did anyone catch Southside last night at the Pony?
50: thank you! I think it started out listed at something like 699,000, but it’s been on the market for well over a year, maybe 2.
See, the Fed really does have things under control:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUKN0347440520080703?sp=true
Big Ben is starting to look like the Captain of the Hindenberg. Everything looks good for a “soft landing,” at least up until things go to heck in an instant.
UPDATE 1-Fed’s Bear portfolio shrinks more than $1 bln
Thu Jul 3, 2008 10:20pm BST Email | Print | Share| Single Page| Recommend (0) [-] Text [+]
NEW YORK, July 3 (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve’s portfolio of Bear Stearns assets has lost more than $1 billion of its original value, a sign that credit market conditions have worsened in recent months.
The central bank said on Thursday the portfolio of tarnished securities is currently worth $28.89 billion, compared to the $30 billion originally used in JPMorgan Chase & Co’s (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) buyout of Bear Stearns.
Analysts caution that these numbers must be read with a grain of salt, since the Fed admitted the securities were being valued as if “the transaction were to be conducted in an orderly market on the measurement date.”
Since markets have been far from orderly, investors say they still feel very much in the dark regarding the true worth of the assets, many of which are presumed to be linked to the crisis-ridden real estate sector.
“One problem for financial markets, however, is there is no detail on the value of assets, how to value specific assets and how to value risk,” said Tony Crescenzi, head of bond market strategy at Miller Tabak.
Still, the drop in its estimated value suggested banks, whose shares have already been battered by the nearly year-long credit crisis, may take a further hit on their bottom line.
“The Fed is saying we are putting this under lock and key,” said Thomas Higgins, chief economist at Payden & Rygel in Los Angeles. “If they sell them now, they would have to sell them at distressed levels. Would that be the true market value?”
The Fed’s decision to put up taxpayer money into a major bank bailout has been controversial. Many policy-makers, including sitting officials on the Fed’s interest rate committee, voiced reservations about this expansion of the central bank’s role.
Perhaps most famously, former Fed chief Paul Volcker said the Fed had stepped to the edge of its mandate in conducting the rescue plan.
Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser has argued that the perception of the Fed as a safety net for investors could lead them to take excess risks. “Interventions intended to quell instability can, by creating moral hazard, actually make instability more severe in the long run.”
The Fed’s role in the Bear Stearns fiasco has sparked calls for an expansion of the central bank’s regulatory role to include investment banks, as opposed to depository institutions. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is pushing for this proposal.
Please, let this be one day where we just celebrate the goodness and opportunity that is America. For one day, let’s talk positive about housing and not negatively. if this can be done on this one day, it will be easier to do it the next day and the days thereafter. After a spell, the malaise will be gone and happier days will be back.
I’ve come to really admire people like Larry Kudlow. He’s always positive on everything and it’s apparent that he loves this great country. I fancy myself as being the Larry Kudlow of these boards.
“Stu and I officially pronounce the 2008 Jersey Shore season dead.”
Everyone went Wednesday and Thursday, you are day late.
“The Top Ten Foreclosing Banks”
These are top 10 trustees for MBS securities, they are not the one foreclosing, servicers and special servicers are the foreclosers.
A financial analyst fresh from a tour of construction sites in the Inland Empire is warning Wall Street of a “ghost town” where finished homes sit vacant and additional homes are still under construction.
“At several properties, there were a significant number of fully built homes sitting vacant along with a large number of additional homes still under construction,” Sandler O’Neill & Partners analyst Aaron Deer wrote today after touring developments in Corona and Ontario. “At one master plan community, the entire development appeared to be vacant — with the exception of crews working on new construction, it was a ghost town.”
When you see one of these in Monroe, NJ then you know the RE market it bad.
OT
if anyone wants to see some gritty footage of what troops in Afghanistan might be experiencing check this link. It is a film series of British troops in Afghanistan click any on the videos titled Afghanistan. this is a documentary series.
http://www.liveleak.com/user/Harris-
may our neighbors friend and fellow humans come home to their families safely
82- Frank- We drove down last weekend on a beautiful day. These are our observations from the whole week here. You’d almost think it was the off-season and not a major holiday week.
neighbors had massive fireworks show again and food for 100, the concrete business is good!
Anyone up for a mini-gtg this weekend?
(89),
Where?
Grim – When/Where? Stu and I might be leaving the beach early if the crummy weather forecast turns out to be true.
Maybe I can talk the bride into it, though she still thinks online “friends” is kinda creepy.
I told her about Gary… that didn’t help.
“Free gang bang sex” doesn’t get moderated but the adult beverage word does.
Huh, go figure.
Great, now I know what words to use to keep me from being in limbo. I wonder if the bbcode helps too.
RE GTG
Would love it, but the commute form Wisconsin is a little far.
form = from
I hear the Clifton commons are charging $11.25 for a movie these days. I’m glad i only go once in a while. Nothing will keep me from the Dark Night.
We were in Freehold today for a BBQ. We go every year and there is always traffic. GSP(Bloomfield) to route 9 to 33 was nearly dead. Even the ride home which can be messy was even easier.
Grim 89 Would be able to make this one, everyone away. Sat night where ? How about that Rose place by you any good. Will be working today so I can’t get back to you till after 1 pm. If it is doable from Vernon I’ll go.
Shannon Rose in Clifton/Nutley? Maybe somewhere in Montclair? Egans or perhaps Tierneys if we’re looking for a dive
I vote Shannon Rose
KL
bogies cliftn
montclair please!
Iran:
Congressman Ron Paul has warned millions of radio listeners that the US is heading into a deadly confrontation with Iran, revealing his disbelief at members of Congress who have openly voiced support for a pre-emptive nuclear strike on the country.
“If we do (attack) it is going to be a disaster,” the Congressman told the Alex Jones show this Thursday.
“I was astounded to see on one of the networks the other day that the debate was not are we going to attack? but are we going to attack before or after the election?” Paul continued.
So do we attack iran just to distract america for its core issues? (financial instability and inflation)?
97 joe
“Nothing will keep me from the Dark Night”
Practically Shakespearian
Blast
Would join mini gtg but it is moving weekend and Mrs. Patient would take my head off.
Have to protect her from the pirate.
“Housing Industry Ramps Up
Political Donations”
http://tinyurl.com/624hbq
“Through May, mortgage bankers and brokers, real-estate companies and home builders had given more than $95 million to federal candidates and political parties so far this election cycle, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. That compares to about $57 million at this point in the 2006 cycle”
“The recipients include people with key roles in the legislation. On the Senate Banking Committee, they include Chairman Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.), ranking Republican Richard Shelby of Alabama, and Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R., N.C.). On the House Financial Services Committee, recipients include Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D., Pa.), committee Chairman Barney Frank (D., Mass.) and Rep. Spencer Bachus (R., Ala.)”
SAS
would he be on a watch list today???
“It is the duty of the patriot to protect his country from his government.” ~ Thomas Paine
NJP,
updated my blog, would be interested in any comments you might have, if you can spare a few moments.
Could someone help me understand foreclosures a little better. If you would like to chat off the board you can get my email from grim but:
My limited understanding is that a person facing a foreclosure situation may agree with the bank to participate in a short sale. This would forgive the borrowers of the full amount of debt owed to the bank but all deals get agreed to or denied by the bank?
Could someone confirm that any of the houses that are on the Bergen Sheriffs sales foreclosure listing are considered lis pendens?
Are there lists for other counties on the web? Are county websites the most up to date lists?
Why do some people say that buying at auction may not be a good deal. Is it becuase a purchase goes sight unseen and you may get stuck with a property that is trashed?
As a buyer at an auction aside from the judgement amount do you recieve the house free and clear?
What about tax liens and the sale of these by a township? Does that give a person any better opportunities?
Are there any clawback provisions that allow a home purchased at auction to be reclaimed by the person that originally faced foreclosure?
Overall when is the best time if any to buy a home facing foreclosure. Is it in the short sale period, at the auction, after a house is bought by the plaintiff (the bank) at auction, once it becomes a REO, once the REO stays on the market for x number of days? Any information you could provide me would be appreciated.
I also see that alot of sold listings in the name of an LLC. Are the people behind these corporations buying the properties in cash. I understand a bank may not lend to these companies so how do they get the financing to close the deal?
If you have a book reference I would appreciate it. My main concern with general books about foreclosure are that I want to know where I may be able to find out information regarding foreclosures as it relates to NJ. I just want to make sure I understand the rules and how the system works. Thanks in advance.
Foreclosures to rise whoever wins White House
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080705/ap_on_el_pr/candidates_housing_help
re foreclosures:
You buy sight unseen, unless you consider a driveby a complete inspection. Buyer beware.
AFAIK, you are only buying the “LOAN” being foreclosed. There may be other debts owed. People often stop paying all loans and debts on the house, so you’ll also find tax liens, etc, still owed.
An LLC can get a loan. I cannot imagine where you would have heard otherwise, but it may have been from my friend Joe. He also believes the moon landing was faked.
If you are interested in buying a foreclosure, attend many auctions to see what happens, learn an awful lot about the mortgage industry, immerse yourself in lien law and and then buy a listing off realtor.com. :)
kettle1,
u have a blog?
whats the address?
sas
sybarite–
from the thread yesterday regarding your friend. if he is planning to borrow the full cost of either of the two schools he is considering, he should think long and hard as to whether it is worth it. Has he contemplated graduating with $150k+ in debt and making $50-60k? This is the likely scenario, despite what the law school brochures might advertise to the contrary.
I would say that if he is determined to go, that he should think of doing Seton Hall part time since it is cheaper and since he will (hopefully) not have to borrow living costs while he pursues his degree.
The law profession is totally bifurcated at this point, with most graduates from top schools doing well compensation-wise, while graduates of most other schools struggle with the same massive debt but compensation that is not much better than paralegals (not exaggerating).
BELMAR, N.J. – After battling rowdy renters and out-of-control keggers for decades, this Jersey shore party town has finally decided to lighten up a little.
ADVERTISEMENT
Belmar, sometimes called “Fort Lauderdale North” for its reputation as a raucous party enclave, has scrapped laws against giving the finger and requiring beer kegs to be registered. The town’s mayor said the rules were difficult to enforce.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080705/ap_on_re_us/rowdy_beach_town;_ylt=AtOL0QPNB2BrvnrKYSV8Ok4DW7oF
njpatient Says:
July 4th, 2008 at 9:57 am
“Spam – despite my pro-gun view of the second amendment, I believe gun owners should be licensed and insured as drivers are, and that penalties should ensue for shooting drunk or letting your gun fall into non-licensed hands.”
I know a certain country – frequently pointed to by the NRA as a country where “everybody” has guns and crime isn’t widespread where those rules exist.
Contrary to the spin “everybody” does ot have guns, they are in fact very hard to get – you have to demonstrate reasonable need, pass a psych test, pass a shooting test, undergo retraining every year and renew your license when you do so.
In addition, gun owners are responsible for their weapons at all times, if it is stolen, automatic jail time, if it is lost, jail time, used in a crime, the original owner is considered partially responsible. VERY tough. And very little gun crime.
“Companies begin quest for oil, gas off Fla. coast”
http://tinyurl.com/6nuk2h
SAS
SAS
really more of a personal scratch pad , but here you go
http://tinyurl.com/5rpbo6
kettle1,
the only way I can leave a message on your blog is if I am a regiistered user?
SAS
#105
NJPatient
97 joe
“Nothing will keep me from the Dark Night”
Practically Shakespearian
Skull always ready in hand :)
Flipflops at the shore
MLS#20826712- Interlaken
Sold-2/15/06-$1,400,000
Listed- 9/19/06-$1,699,000
Current list- $1,2499,000
MLS#20826702- Interlaken
Sold-12/01/05- $669,900
Listed-3/20/06-$899,000
Current list- $629,000
I’m not sure about what he says about oil in Alaska, and he leaves out about all the taxes on petro, and leaves out the falling value of the dollar being the REAL reason for high gas prices.
However, Lindsey Williams is correct and spot on when he talks about the IMF & World Bank.
“The Energy Non-Crisis”
http://tinyurl.com/3cw9w7
SAS
So mini gtg or no?
I was In Spring Lake yesterday, the trip down the GSP was an absolute breeze, no traffic, up or down.
The beach was great as always, and the day after an overcast start turned out great.
Lots of for sale signs on every block, on both the north ans south end. My good friends whose root down there go back generations, tell me the market is dead.
And there are foreclosures in town, somehting they said they have never seen before in Spring Lake.
And coming home a nice quick trip back up the GSP
I went to a nice little place in JC last night. It was called City Vito (i think that what it was called).
Pretty good eats & drink.
SAS
next to the sachs parking lot.
sas
from the other thread …
110, I saw a few posting by people holding cash waiting to swoop in. Maybe they did not get the message….convert that money to commodities or euros.
cash holder here, waiting to ‘swoop’ in. We know when we want to buy (when our lease is up), and want to be liquid.
If anyone wants to buy in Ocean City, NJ, there are seemingly hundreds of place for sale. For Sale signs all over the damn place (it’s a dry town!). As a non-Jersey shore guy, this place is a bit too crowded, though … I much prefer our last stop, Long Beach Island.
SAS
Regarding the link you put up: Unless he can point to some data, then every piece of data i have seen refutes the majority of his claims on oil
GTG tonight???
homebuyer,
regarding foreclosures, there is a lot to know about them and I wouldn’t advice even considering purchasing a foreclosure until you’ve read one or two books on the subject.
I have some info on buying foreclosures but really anything I put up will be limited because there is so much you need to know.
Trying to buy a foreclosure without knowing what your doing could be a quick way to lose a lot of money.
Some things you should know regarding bergen county, there is a 10 day redemption period were the homeowner or another lien holder may settle the debt. You don’t actually buy the home, you buy the lien and after the redemption period you can take possession of the property.
In NJ all junior liens get wiped out. Tax liens do not. Sometimes it’s a junior lien doing the foreclosing so make sure you don’t buy a junior lien.
Tax liens are sold by each individual town. The chances of foreclosing on a property and taking posession through a tax lien are very rare. You won’t even be able to start foreclosure processes for 2 years in NJ I think. For those 2 years you might have to shell out the property tax for that property again to make sure someone else doesn’t purchase a tax lien for it as well. The nice thing though is, you’re entitled to 16% interest.
4 or 5 ok? Anyone actually coming?
Grim #130
Where?
KL
Yeah Grim where?
Grim 130 I’m in if it goes down but where.
I will be back online in 30min.
Let’s do Shannon Rose in Clifton, 5pm, although I have a feeling it is going to be mobbed.
Ket,
Not far from Montclair
Grim
Anywhere else in mind?
Damn, is that a veto?
I’m not vetoing but you said it would be packed so I wonder if there’s somewhere else that would be less crowded.
NJ seriously sucks. You have to make 200k a year to be able to afford a nice house and not be house poor…
My observations about Morris, Passic counties from the last few months. This is what your money gets you:
300-400k townhouse or an old beater house
400-450k older house that needs 50-100k to make modern
450-500k average home that could use 25-50k to make modern
500k-550k the ‘nicer’ average, newer does not need much work
550k-650k new construction
650k+ larger homes(2800+ sq ft)
I hope this area crashes and burns.
Let’s do Shannon, if we can’t deal with a crowd we’ll head out to somewhere in Montclair.
Have fun all! The spouse already commited to our presence at my sister-in-laws.
You did NOT just post your cell phone?!
5 at the Rose ok.
OK we’ll be there.
Yea you may have change that after today.
Yeah I’d take it down. Who knows what bananas will start to call.
Kettle , KL you folks in?
From The Record
Local families skip the Shore during holiday
Nothing says July Fourth in New Jersey like a trip down the shore or a heaping backyard barbecue.
But with skyrocketing food prices and gasoline selling for more than $4 a gallon at many stations across the state Friday, many North Jersey residents opted to stay home for more low-key celebrations.
The American Automobile Association predicted that July Fourth travel would decline nationwide for the first time this decade, with 550,000 fewer people taking trips.
The Rodriguez family usually heads to Seaside Heights or Wildwood to celebrate the Fourth, but this year opted for a mid-day barbecue in Garret Mountain Reservation. They also hoped to visit the State Fair at the Meadowlands Sports Complex and watch fireworks later that night.
More at the link above
#139 gmoney: It already is.
“Unless he can point to some data, then every piece of data i have seen refutes the majority of his claims on oil”
I don’t know about his Gall Island claims, but I do know I am not a big fan of peak oil.
but, what he says about the IMF & World Bank I have to believe. Dig into it and you may be surprized.
SAS
COme on Kettle. What’s a bar without Vodka?
Kettle,
you may also want to take a nice little trip to DC and talk to people to take it to the next level.
;)
SAS
sorry blokes, I’m sitting tonights gtg.
I went out last night.
Took everyone out to eat & get drinks, picked up the bill.
now, I’m flat broke ;)
thats all right though… we had alot of fun.
especially, when I whipped shittys in that Goldman Sachs parking lot and the rent-a-cops chased us out.
SAS
Oh come on sas. We can get you a round or 3.
grim, you’re nuts posting your cell phone on here.
Syb
You better be there. We have the woman’s urge to reproduce discussion to revisit. :)
:-o
I don’t seem to recall that conversation….
;-)
All kidding aside; if you guys are staying for a bit, I just might. Otherwise, I just got home and it’s a bit of a hike. I’ll do my best to make it.
sorry, all got sucked into a last minute family event :( no gtg for me.
SAS 153
what are you suggesting? I am looking into the IMF claims.
if any one will be the GTG at 8pm, then i might be there, but cant get out of family gtg before then
currently posting from family gtg :(
sorry can’t be there. demand minutes from gtg! ;>
…mutter… jealous… mutter… urge to reproduce? what?!… considers… yes, definitely want to reproduce… fireworks. last night’s were obscured.
There seems to be a lot more “for rent” signs in Belmar, Manasquan, and Point Pleasant than I’ve ever seen before at this time of the year. I’ve never seen the homes along the boardwalk in Point Pleasant vacant in the summer but there are a handfull this year.
My family is coming from out of state and renting a house at the shore for a week starting next weekend. Last week the owner called and offered them this week too at half price.
big brother is watching you…slave!
“Lower Police to Get Surveillance Cameras from Army Program”
http://tinyurl.com/65xxtq
SAS
soylent green is made of people!
“High gas prices threaten to shut down rural towns”
http://tinyurl.com/6ms3hm
SAS
“SAS 153
what are you suggesting? I am looking into the IMF claims”
there is only so much you can get from google & the web.
sometimes direct interviews & contacts can catapult your investigations.
DC is always a location to find someone willing to talk.
you can always find a songbird in that town.
SAS
151 SAS:
“I don’t know about his Gall Island claims, but I do know I am not a big fan of peak oil.”
SAS: are you saying here that you don’t believe in peak oil at all?
Can you elucidate?
still at family gtg :(
SAS 166
my goal is to be as prepared as possible to react to what may be coming. I am not attempting to change anything. Be that as it may, at this point in my life i am not a crusader, and besides have lost faith in the American system.
Gun enthusiasts and card-carrying NRA members who post here:
When the discussions veers towards gun buying/collection talks or bunkers people have planned. This picture comes close to what I imagine…
http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/8357/1208011977820iz1.jpg
Truly amazing…
GTG is over. It was nice and small. For those of you who couldn’t make it, I’m sorry. It’s always nice to see people in real life that you talk to or read from. Hopefully, we’ll have another full blown one soon.
Oh and no one is allowed to pick on Mikeinwaiting for spelling or other gramatical errors. And I apologize in front of all of those here for embarrassing you in any way.
169 Bklyn
In 2 weeks I am going to West Va to ride horses and learn how to shoot guns. And no I will not be shooting horsies!
But I am excited and terrified all at once. I don’t think I will ever have a bunker.
Bunkers!!
Lost you beat me home , just got up to Vernon.
lost,
sounds like fun!
Missed the gtg, we’ll have to catch up next time.
Was the place packed?
173 Mike
I’m surprised. I thought you’d get home faster.
174 Syb
Yeah you missed us. Booo!
No not packed but it did get busier as time went on.
Wish kettle & KL could have made it , sas should have come you could have run on are tab no problem.
Lost want to learn how to shoot should have mentioned it.
Lost stoped for gas & then to pick up food for my ever hungrey boys.
Can’t spell worth a sh*t. No matter.
Cool, gotta have another gtg soon. Grim, I suggest deleting #141 :-)
Yes like yeaterday
yesterday , man I’m really worse than usual.
http://s135.photobucket.com/albums/q137/vazqued2/?action=view¤t=USA.jpg
Kettle
I’ll get a chance to look tomorrow
Sybarite
Skeptic describes the law situation well, I think.
yup, passed opinion along to my friend.
119 joey
“Skull always ready in hand :)”
Alas, poor Yorik
Ket
Just read the fertilizer post
Oh my
Will go back for more later
Great stuff
“Just read the fertilizer post
Oh my”
Link?
there was some talk about the ‘Dark Knight’ Batman movie…if you are like me and only go to the movies like 3 times a whole year – take the time and go to an IMAX for this movie…you will spend an extra 4 bucks for the showing but this movie will blow you away in IMAX…i saw a preview for it at the palisades mall IMAX a while ago and will be going to back to see this movie there….
also, i hear that this movie was made specifically for the IMAX experience…
Achtung….
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601088&sid=amOeV_OF4m5w&refer=home
#121, Lindsay williams? Baptist Minister?
2 seconds research seems to indicate that he is making up Alaska oil comments…
http://skepchick.org/skepticsguide/index.php?topic=11308.0
let’s see, I paid $1.31 a gallon in 1981…if someone said gas would increase “only” 10 cents a year going forward..I would have signed up!! That would make gas about..$4.01 in 2008….
Another financial innovation bites dust !!!
Choosing Where to Grow Old
Remodeling your home is enticing—and hugely popular. But a smaller home might be preferable, or even a granny flat with your kids. Be wary, though, of reverse mortgages
Businessweek article,
The rate of option ARM delinquencies is already spiking
Posted by: Prashant Gopal on July 02
The next wave of foreclosures is expected to gather strength when the million or so option ARMs start resetting in large numbers next spring.
A major concern is that 70% of option arms are concentrated in California and Florida – two states that have already been hard hit by the housing slump. Subprime mortgages, on the other hand, were dispersed across the country (about 60% of them were outside Florida and California) And as prices in those states continue to fall, refinancing options for these borrowers disappear even as recasts loom.
Wachovia moves away from Pick-a-Payment home loan
Resets Peaking on Subprime Loans
Jumping Payments Raise Foreclosure
By Renae Merle
Washington Post Staff Writer
“The next six months, the industry, all of the folks that are out there trying to solve this problem, they are going to be very busy,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic, a California research firm. “There are a lot of people facing their resets right now. A good share of them don’t have the refinance option.”
It will not be clear for months how many will lose their homes, Fleming said. “A lot of those are resetting now,” he said. “We may not see the impact in foreclosures until the middle of 2009.”
Borrowers may face another significant problem when option ARM loans, which allowed them to make less than full payments, face increases, said John Taylor, president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition. Those are not classified as subprime loans, but the borrowers will begin to see their payments spike in the next few years as they are forced to start paying the principal of their loans as well as the interest, he said.
“There is this second wave behind” subprime loans, Taylor said, “that is going to complete the tsunami.”
http://blog.nj.com/njv_paul_mulshine/2008/07/unaffordable_unfathomable_hous.html
In New Jersey, we have more such regulations than any state in the union. There are the Pinelands regs, the Highlands regs, the stream encroachment regs and so on.
As a result, housing can be half the cost in a neighboring state like Pennsylvania. Not content to push housing out of the state, the geniuses in Trenton are now targeting business. That’s the point of A500. This is a bill recently passed by the Legislature that will impose a 2.5 percent tax on any business executive dumb enough to want to build commercial space here. Private employment has been declining here for the past several years. We should be cutting taxes and regulations. Instead we keep adding them.
191 Chifi
Why would they even put his likeness in there?
this is great!
http://i100.photobucket.com/albums/m37/BrandonRudy/Funny/god-action-figure.jpg
Loss of Civil Liberties Since 9/11
http://tinyurl.com/36mtr4
“But with skyrocketing food prices and gasoline selling for more than $4 a gallon at many stations across the state Friday, many North Jersey residents opted to stay home for more low-key celebrations.”
I guess frank’s car-counting isn’t up to snuff.
200 kettle
Don’t get me started.
SAS,
I think that the Lindsey graham video you linked has some very good/accurate info in it. The problem is that it is not immediately apparent where the facts end and the rhetoric start. And there is indeed some rhetoric in there.
There is also the issue that the subject matter is fairly complex and hard to simplify without losing meaning
how goes the move NJP?
Just a quick analysis based on GMoney’s complaints–if it’s true (which I’m not completely sure of, see below) then here’s how much cash the buyer will need at closing:
Given present credit, I’m assuming 20% down and no credit available for renovations on a just-purchased property. That means that the buyer needs 20% of the purchase price and 100% of the renovations required as cash on hand–not borrowed.
$425K gets you a fixer-upper needing $75K of renovations. Total cash needed: $160K, plus closing fees.
$475K gets you a “decent” home needing “only” $37,500 in renovations. Total cash needed: $132,500 plus closing fees.
$525K gets you a good home requiring $5K of repainting/redecorating to be in good condition. Total cash needed: $110K plus closing fees.
Now yes, the cheaper home will have a cheaper monthly payment. It’s quite possible that the $525K home is unaffordable if you can’t make the monthly payment. However, if you can make the payment, the more expensive home is a far better deal.
The only caveat I have is that I’ve seen homes in disrepair at ALL price points, low, high, over a million, you name it. I’ve also seen houses in good condition at lower prices as well.
So, if you’re looking to sell, keep this in mind: if work needs to be done on the house, DO IT NOW. If you don’t, you’ll have to sell the house at a discount greater than the cost of the repairs because credit is tight. Granite/stainless doesn’t matter here, but in ground tanks, insect damage, wiring not up to code, corroded plumbing, and other structural issues need to be corrected.
tom 189
http://tinyurl.com/5rpbo6
NJP is referring to the monday june 30th post
“Lindsay williams”
like I said, I’m not sure about the Alaska claims. But, he does talk correctly about IMF & World bank. So, he does have some credability with me.
SAS
Nice neighborhoods in northshore of Long Island here are the prices I am seeing right now.
950-1.2 million older house that needs 50-100k to make modern
1.2 million to 1.5 million average home that could use 25-50k to make modern
1.5 million to two million the ‘nicer’ average, newer does not need much work
two million to four million+ larger homes(2800+ sq ft)
4 million to ten million new construction
“let’s see, I paid $1.31 a gallon in 1981…if someone said gas would increase “only” 10 cents a year going forward..I would have signed up!! That would make gas about..$4.01 in 2008”
Doesn’t that mean the value of the dollar has fallen by 206% in 27 years or inflation has risen by 206& in 27 years.
either way, moving forward by this logic, we better move to Mexico, and our kids will end up being tied to a sewing machine.
sas
good book.
yikes!
I wish I took that other pill.
http://www.thevirusandthevaccine.com/
SAS
njcoast :120
From yesterday…..
Flipflops at the shore
MLS#20826712- Interlaken
Sold-2/15/06-$1,400,000
Listed- 9/19/06-$1,699,000
Current list- $1,2499,000
MLS#20826702- Interlaken
Sold-12/01/05- $669,900
Listed-3/20/06-$899,000
Current list- $629,000
Digging a little deeper, this is an interesting story. They are owned by the same Flipper. His name is on both deeds, so he’s really taking a bath on these.
Bought at or near the peak, upgraded kitchen, heating systems and other big ticket items. The $1.2M home has a listing history a mile long, he’s had 6 month listings with every “name” realtor in that area at successively lower prices. His fate was sealed when he paid $1.4M in Feb of 2006. Way too much in a market that had already started showing signs of turning. Once he poured money into the kitchen and the heating system in that old house….his ticket was punched.
“NO ONE’S HOME
Newark and builder at odds over fitness of housing project”
http://tinyurl.com/5bpvo2
SAS
quick! Butts against the wall..here comes Corzine!!
“Transportation funding looms large”
Corzine said he plans in the coming weeks to unveil a revised plan to fund transportation projects. He won’t comment on what that plan might unveil, but it’s expected to involve another bid to increase highway tolls to pay for highway, bridge and mass transit work
http://tinyurl.com/5wugzt
SAS
thanks Fiddy Cents on the Dollar.
good post.
maybe we should sell that flipper a nice long piece of rope to hang himself.
;)
SAS
SAS,
not too long a piece of rope, too long a piece and you get decapitated!
215 Kettle
Does it matter at that point?
I’ve got a feeling there’s some leftover 14/3 wiring from the electric service upgrade he had to do, to bring it up to code.
Flipper’s Rule #1 – Use your scrap material wherever possible.
Lotta heavy lifting, kettle
Seven Ways to Save Money and Still Be Cultured
>>
Summary: You can’t be cultured if you don’t spend .. except if you do these 7 things.
Patient
Missed you and the Mrs. yesterday. I hope the move went well.
218 NJP?????
lost 216,
well its not very pleasant for the family, no open casket funeral. keep the rope short and you can still do an open casket, just with a high collar
MLS 2512518,Berkeley Heights, $548,876.
Interesting comment on this house:
Price Marketing Value. Seller will entertain offers of $478,500-$549,876. Large 4 Bedroom 2 1/2 split.
222 Kettle
Some people don’t have open caskets anyway. But yes I can understand how it could make it more difficult for the family. But I’m not sure the person killing him/herself is so much concerned with how the family will deal with their death.
regarding the flipper Fiddy listed @ 211, why wouldnt you just walk away from those houses at this point?
-why don’t you hear this on your beloved Fox news or CNBC?
-This guy gives you the straight up skinny!!
“OPEC president warns no end to oil price rises”
http://tinyurl.com/6yfo8c
“The price of oil will rise again in the coming weeks. We have to follow the evolution of the dollar, because a one percent fall in the dollar means four dollars more on the price of oil,” Khelil, who is Algeria’s minister of energy and mines.
“As producer countries we think that the current supply is sufficient, that this balance in supply is in everybody’s interests and that it shouldn’t be disturbed, because the current rise in oil prices is in nobody’s interest,” the head of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries stressed.
“I believe that 60 percent of the rise is due to the fall in the exchange rate of the dollar and to geopolitical problems, and 40 percent to the intrusion of bioethanol on the market,” he said.
“I can affirm that all the (OPEC) countries are in favour of new explorations (of oil reserves), but the fact is that the embargo imposed by Libya has prevented any increase of investment in that country, just as the current embargo on Iran is stopping anyone investing there,” Khelil said.
“The United States is threatening severe economic sanctions against any group which dares invest in Iran. Similarly, the war in Iraq is why investment there is weak. No OPEC country can invest in embargoed countries.”
SAS
and you think ~O_bama will bring ~”change”.
ha ha ha!!
oh man!!
ha ha ha
you best think again.
SAS
and we are screwed also w/ songbird ~Mc_Cain.
we better all grab our ankles for the next 5 years, minimum.
SAS
#211 Fiddy
The guy owns more houses in the area as well. The $1.2M house sold in 2000 for $210,000. The owners did some work and sold in 2003 for $550,000. They did some work and sold for $1.4M in 06. The present owners didn’t do too much.
Everybody thought Interlaken would be the next big Sephardic enclave, investors rushed in (including Solomon Dwek)and homeowners jacked up their listing prices. Except for a few sales they did not come and the few Sephardics who bought are now trying to sell. Now most buyers in Interlaken are from sellers on the beach blocks, flush with cash, downsizing and moving one mile inland, so prices are still a bit high. The town has no school system so taxes are quite low.
Since Dwek imploded the Sephardics have pulled in the reins. The only properties they are buying are prime beach block in Deal, Allenhurst and Elberon and low end in Ocean township. Most of the high end sales are done off the MLS and without realtors.
The Sephardic community are primarily merchants who have factories in China that make baubles and name brands that are sold in Walmart and other discount stores. I overheard at the beach a while back some were discussing how Walmart had put a thirty day hold on all their orders. The container ships were already on their way to the US so they were having to scramble to find warehouse space to store their inventory. Coupled with higher fuel costs and falling dollar costs, I believe the Sephardic community is not as flush as in the past.
njcoast-
I’m curious, you seem to know the area quite well….are you a realtor in Monmouth county??
I live in Middletown and have access to MLS.
McCain hates the bloggers
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/07/05/john-mccain-i-hate-the-bloggers
oh and we have the cables too!
Does anyone have any informed information on The Watermark in North Bergen, NJ? The average list price of these high end condos is about $1.1 mm. Does anyone have any informed conjecture on what percentage of buyers have or are likely to default on their contracts and what percentage discount off list price the owner of the tower (WCI) is likely to have to offer for the units to sell (on the units that are unsold or that buyers default on)?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/portal/main.jhtml?xml=/portal/2008/07/05/sm_america05.xml
off topic:
How do I find a good and reliable accountant?
While I (think) am good at micro managing my dollar, I feel I am bad with the big picture – aka taxes, 401k, college funds, etc.
If you have any references that I could interview please do send me their contact information through Grim.
Thanks!
#233,
Just hire chicagofinance, I think he does that for a living.
#230 Fiddy
Yep I have my license in Monmouth County, although real estate is not my primary business.
I’ve lived in Deal then Allenhurst since 1968.
Chifi – what do you think of a new client in central NJ?
WSJ: The credit crisis is going to get worse
COMMENTARY: THE WEEKEND INTERVIEW
Theodore J. Forstmann
The Credit Crisis Is Going to Get Worse
By BRIAN M. CARNEY
July 5, 2008; Page A9
New York
Twenty years ago, Ted Forstmann contributed a scathing – and prescient – op-ed to this newspaper warning that the junk-bond craze was about to end badly: “Today’s financial age has become a period of unbridled excess with accepted risk soaring out of proportion to possible reward,” he wrote in October 1988. “Every week, with ever-increasing levels of irresponsibility, many billions of dollars in American assets are being saddled with debt that has virtually no chance of being repaid.”
Within a year, the junk-bond market had collapsed, and within 18 months Drexel Burnham Lambert, the leading firm of the junk-bond world, was bankrupt. Mr. Forstmann sees even worse trouble coming today.
For a curmudgeon, he is a cheerful man. When we met for lunch recently in a tony midtown restaurant, he was wearing a well-tailored suit, a blue shirt and a yellow tie. He spoke with the calm self-assurance of someone who has something to say but nothing left to prove.
“We are in a credit crisis the likes of which I’ve never seen in my lifetime,” Mr. Forstmann warns. He adds: “The credit problems in this country are considerably worse than people have said or know. I didn’t even know subprime mortgages existed and I was worried about the credit crisis.”
Mr. Forstmann denies being an expert in the capital markets. But he does have some experience with them. He was present at the creation of the private-equity business. The firm he co-founded, Forstmann Little, rode the original private-equity boom in the 1980s while skirting the excesses of the junk-bond craze in the later years. It was for a time the most successful private-equity firm in the world, renowned for both its outsize returns and its caution. For two years after Mr. Forstmann wrote his 1988 op-ed, Forstmann Little sat on $2 billion in uninvested funds, waiting for the right opportunities. Savvy investments in Dr. Pepper and Gulfstream, among others over the years, helped make Mr. Forstmann a billionaire.
These days, he devotes most of his professional attention to IMG, the sports and entertainment agency. But the economy has him worried.
Mr. Forstmann’s argument about the present crisis starts with the money supply. After Sept. 11, 2001, the Federal Reserve pumped so much money into the financial system that it distorted the incentives and the decision making of everyone in finance. He illustrates this with what he calls his “little children’s story”: Once upon a time, when credit conditions and the costs of borrowing money were normal, the bank opened at 9:00 a.m. and closed at 5:00 p.m. For eight hours a day, bankers made loans and took deposits, and then they went home.
But after 9/11, the Fed opened the spigot. Short-term interest rates went to zero in real terms and then into negative territory. When real interest rates are negative, borrowing money is effectively free – the debt loses value faster than the interest adds up. This led to a series of distortions in the financial sector that are only now coming to light. The children’s story continues: “Now they [the banks] have all this excess money. And they open at nine, and from nine to noon or so, they’re doing all the same kind of basically legitimate things with it that they did before.”
So far, so good. “But at noon, they have tons of money left. They have all this supply, and the, what I would call ‘legitimate’ demand – it’s probably not a good word – but where risk and reward are still in balance, has been satisfied. But they’re still open until five. And around 3:30 in the afternoon they get to such things as subprime mortgages, OK? And what you guys haven’t seen yet is what happened between noon and 3:30.”
Straightforward economics tells us that when you print too much money, it loses value and prices go up. That’s been happening too. But Mr. Forstmann is most concerned with a different, more subtle effect of the oversupply of money. When it becomes too plentiful, bankers and other financial intermediaries end up taking on more and more risk for less return.
The incentive to be conservative under normal credit conditions is driven in part by what economists call opportunity cost – if you put money to use in one place, it leaves you with less money to invest or lend in another place. So you pick your spots carefully. But if you’ve got too much money, and that money is declining in value faster than you can earn interest on it, your incentives change. “Something that’s free isn’t worth much,” as Mr. Forstmann puts it. So the normal rules of caution get attenuated.
“They could not find enough appropriate uses for the money,” Mr. Forstmann says. “That’s why my little bank story for the kids is a fun way to put it. The money just kept coming and coming and coming and coming. What are you going to do with it? IBM only needs so much. The guy who can really pay his mortgage only needs so much.” So you start thinking about new ways to lend the money, which inevitably means riskier ways.
“I don’t know when money was ever this inexpensive in the history of this country. But not in modern times, that’s for sure.”
Combine this with loan syndication and securitization, and the result is a nasty brew. Securitization and syndication allow the banks to take the loans off their books and replenish their capital. They then use this capital to make new loans, which they securitize or syndicate and sell to the hedge funds, which buy them with the money they borrowed from the banks. For a time, everyone makes money.
In fact, for six years, a lot of people made a lot of money in this environment. So much money that, as Mr. Forstmann notes, the price of admission to the Forbes 400 list of the richest Americans has gone from $500 million 10 years ago to over $1 billion today. (Mr. Forstmann was bumped from the list two years ago, his reported 10-figure net worth no longer enough to keep pace.)
At the same time, both the size and the number of hedge funds and private-equity funds have ballooned. “I used to have one of the biggest private-equity funds in the world,” he says matter-of-factly. “It was, I don’t know, $500 million or a billion dollars. If you don’t have a $20 billion fund now, you’re kind of a [nobody],” Mr. Forstmann says. (The term he used to describe those of us without $20 billion PE funds was both more colorful and less printable than “nobody.”) “And so what does that tell you?”
Mr. Forstmann hasn’t raised a new fund in four years. But he doesn’t blame the hedge funds or the private-equity funds – they are not the villains in his story. “Fundamentally, I don’t see them as a cause,” he says. “Obviously the proliferation of hedge funds and private-equity funds has created its own dynamic. But this proliferation is simply a result of the vast increase in the money supply.”
Mr. Forstmann has been around a long time, so he’s seen a lot. But is it possible that he’s simply fallen behind the times? By his own description, he’s a bit of a figure from another age – “a bit like Wyatt Earp in 1910.”
But it would be a mistake to dismiss Mr. Forstmann’s pessimism too quickly. After all, he knows something about both credit and crises.
“You’ve got [Treasury Secretary Henry] Paulson saying ‘Oh, you see the good news is it’s over.'” The problem, according to Mr. Forstmann, is that it’s far from over. “I think we’re in about the second inning of this.” And of course, the credit crisis wasn’t even supposed to last this long. “This all started in August [of 2007], and it was going to get cleared up by October. It hasn’t gotten cleared up at all.”
One reason is that the proliferation of new financial instruments has left the system more closely intertwined than ever, making a workout, or even a shakeout, much more difficult. Take what happened to Bear Stearns. “What should the health of one brokerage firm in America mean to the entire global financial system? To an ordinary person, probably not much. But in today’s world, with all the interdependence, a great deal.”
This circular creation of new credit, used to buy more newly created debt, all financed by ultracheap money and all betting with each other, has left the major firms hopelessly intertwined. “It’s very interrelated,” he says, locking his fingers together. “There’s trillions and trillions of dollars that slosh around between all these places and if one fails . . .” He doesn’t finish the thought.
Early in our conversation, Mr. Forstmann describes his conversational style as “Faulknerian.” The word fits. He jumps between thoughts, examples and anecdotes in a pure stream of consciousness. One such aside is about Warren Buffett and the rule of the three “I”s.
“Buffett once told me there are three ‘I’s in every cycle. The ‘innovator,’ that’s the first ‘I.’ After the innovator comes the ‘imitator.’ And after the imitator in the cycle comes the idiot. Which makes way for an innovator again.” So when Mr. Forstmann says we’re at the end of an era, it’s another way of saying that he’s afraid that the idiots have made their entrance.
“We’re in the third ‘I’ for sure,” he interjects an hour after first introducing the “rule.” “And that always leads to something. Innovators don’t just show up. Some disaster takes place because of the idiots, and then an innovator says, oh, look at this, I can do this, that or the other thing.” That disaster is now.
In other words, “In order to fix what’s going on in the United States there’s going to have to be a certain amount of pain. The market’s going to have to clear somehow. . . and it’s hard for me to believe that it gets fixed without” upheaval in the financial system, the economy and the country as a whole. “Things are going to fail. Enterprises are going to fail. The economy is going to slow,” he warns.
To be clear, although Mr. Forstmann talks about “fear and greed” getting out of whack, his is not a condemnation of “greedy speculators” or a “culture of greed” or any of the lamentations so popular among the populists in Washington. It is a diagnosis of the ways in which the financial sector responded to a government policy of printing money that was free, or nearly so. “The creation of much too much money caused all of this excess,” he says. In other words, his is not an argument for draconian regulation, but for sound money.
Nor does he blame Alan Greenspan, even though he argues that this all started with the dot-com bubble and 9/11. “Greenspan,” he allows, “had really tough decisions to make, so I don’t think it’s a black-and-white kind of thing at all.” It was, and is, rather, “a case of first impression.” Mr. Greenspan, he says, admits that he was “totally sure” that what he was doing was right. But he had “no idea what the consequences [were] going to be.”
According to Mr. Forstmann, we are now living with those consequences. And the correction has only begun.
Mr. Carney is a member of the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal.
njcoast and other citizens of Monmouth county…
Maybe we can interest the board in holding a get together down here at the Shore. After Labor Day, of course, when things calm down.
Perhaps at McLoone’s by the River, or something closer to the Parkway in Red Bank??
Fiddy,
Absolutely
.5$,
I’m in.
The buck doesn’t stop here; it just keeps falling
http://www.miamiherald.com/business/AP/story/595310.html
Hi everyone- I just wanted to point out this article on yahoo today:
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080630/063008_personal_wealth.html?.&.pf=banking-budgeting
BTW- still renting…lol
YEEHAW!
Want some torture with your peanuts?
Just when you thought you’ve heard it all…
A senior government official with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has expressed great interest in a so-called safety bracelet that would serve as a stun device, similar to that of a police Taser®. According to this promotional video found at the Lamperd Less Lethal website, the bracelet would be worn by all airline passengers.
This bracelet would:
• take the place of an airline boarding pass
• contain personal information about the traveler
• be able to monitor the whereabouts of each passenger and his/her luggage
• shock the wearer on command, completely immobilizing him/her for several minutes
http://www.washingtontimes.com/weblogs/aviation-security/2008/Jul/01/want-some-torture-with-your-peanuts/
grim,
141?
I also imagine that those braclets would be useless against anyone with basic electronics understanding, i imagine it would be fairly easy to short circuit so the current wouldnt hit you.
bracelette video from 242
http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com/video_gallery.asp?video=http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com/video/EMDsafetybracelet.flv&title=
the bracelette is not a joke!
http://www.lamperdlesslethal.com/news/upload/pg1HomelandSecurity4_06.pdf
Kettle
DH says he’s going out to get his barcode tattoo before it’s mandatory.
#238 Fiddy
I’m in. There is a restaurant in Allenhurst where the bar overlooks the ocean; Mr. C’s.
#238 Fiddy
Or Basil T’s brewpub in Red Bank.
I like how it’s “less lethal”.
I like how the WSJ publishes that article on a holiday weekend.
I like how I say “I like” all the time.
I need to get one of these shock bracelets for my mother-in-law.
All I would’ve needed this weekend to create a tragic statistic was a bottle of Rebel Yell and a .38. Fortunately, neither were at hand.
Other than that, it was a great 4th. Back to the short sale ramparts tomorrow!
I’m a winner. I can feel it.
kettle,
“Just when you thought you’ve heard it all”
what do you expect from a country that tourters children in the name of “national security”?
SAS
Thanks for pimping my REO page, John.
Unfortunately, I’ve been focusing my energies elsewhere and I haven’t really been working on my blog all that much.
Fiddy Cents on the Dollar Says:
July 6th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
njcoast and other citizens of Monmouth county…
Maybe we can interest the board in holding a get together down here at the Shore. After Labor Day, of course, when things calm down.
Perhaps at McLoone’s by the River, or something closer to the Parkway in Red Bank??
$0.50: Works for me….
FYI – If you do the McLoone in Sea Bright before Labor Day, the outdoor deck is open. I eat lunch there at least four or five times each summer. The food…eh..fine..the drink are probably more expensive than they should be, but it is cheaper than Pier Village.
FYI – Avenue in Pier Village has an early bird special which is a complete joke it is so inexpensive for full value. We should go there for the food on a Tuesday (I think they run the special for the entire night). $29 cash for app, ent, dessert. Real food and portions. If you buy drinks, you eliminate the value, still, hard to argue with a seat overlooking the beach outdoors in the summer.
RentL0rd Says:
July 6th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Chifi – what do you think of a new client in central NJ?
Check with grim to see whether kosher, vegan, or parve….whatever his polska guidelines may be…..
Monmouth County GTG would be great, as it would mean I could finally make it to one of them. (Although I do still expect that I’ll be midway through my cross-country drive on Labor Day, unless gas hits $5/gal….)
NJCoast and Fiddy: what is really going on here in the Allenhurst, Bradley, Belmar, Avon area anyway? I’ve been watching the listings and it seems like people remain unreasonable in terms of what they’re asking – but what are they getting? There was a house for sale on Evergreen in Bradley (401) that was listed at like 750K, nice little house but sure didn’t seem like it was worth that money! Plus it was over 7K/year in taxes! Is there as much close watching going on in that area as in those areas further north?
Thanks!
I go to Wall township (exit 98) every weekend. My parents live there. The traffic has been a joke. No traffic jams at all. To top it off, the bars have about 50% of the people they normally do.
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Well I am finally on the road, finally headed for Yellowknife. From Edmonton Alberta to Yellowknife NWT, is just over 900 miles. The trip itself in a big truck takes at least 18 hours on a good day. I know this now, but on that very first trip, all I had were 6 scraps of paper from Frank and a strong desire to reach my destination. I really had no idea what I had gotten myself into. I planned my trip as I normally did, with a set number of miles I intended to drive for the day, and I hoped to arrive in…
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