From Bloomberg:
Hamptons Home Prices Fall on Wall Street Jobs, Economic Outlook
Home prices in the Hamptons, the summer haven of New York financiers and socialites, fell almost 12 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier as Wall Street firms cut jobs and the economy teetered near a recession.
Sales dropped 26 percent and the median price slid to $970,000 in the resort towns on the East End of Long Island, New York-based broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate and appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. said in a report today.
“We used to think of the Hamptons as insulated and that’s not the case,” said real estate developer Arthur Rauscher, who is trying to sell his four-bedroom custom-built East Hampton house for the second time in three years. He’s asking $1.3 million and hasn’t received any offers. “It’s not what it used to be.”
The housing slump is hitting the Hamptons as financial firms have announced more than 76,000 U.S. job cuts sparked by mortgage- related losses and writedowns. The nation’s economic expansion may slow to the weakest pace in six years in the fourth quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey, and New York Governor David Paterson has said a 20 percent drop in securities industry bonuses this year will cut state revenue by $700 million.
Homes in the Hamptons — where billionaire Ronald Perelman, director Steven Spielberg and “Sex and the City” star Sarah Jessica Parker own — took an average of 143 days to sell in the quarter, up 18 percent from a year earlier, said closely held Miller Samuel. The company appraised more than $5 billion in property in the past year. Sellers in towns including Southampton, Quogue and Amagansett got an average of 9 percent less than their final asking price.
Yes, I know we’re not a New York real estate blog, but if ‘they’ can point to Wall Street jobs as a driving factor behind Jersey real estate, I can point to the Hamptons pricing as an indicator of what is happening on the street. And as goes the Hamptons, so goes Upper Haughtyville.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/07302008/news/regionalnews/crisis_puts_ny_in_sell_hell_122211.htm
ALBANY – Warning of an approaching economic calamity, Gov. Paterson yesterday called an emergency session of the state Legislature – and raised the specter that New York may have to sell off roads, bridges and tunnels to close a massive budget deficit.
In a rare televised address, the Democratic governor cited “private-public partnerships” involving the sale of state assets – widely condemned by critics as fiscal gimmickry – as one way to stem a tide of red ink brought on by the sagging economy and woes on Wall Street.
“We can’t wait and hope that this problem will resolve itself,” Paterson said. “These times call for action, and today I promise you there will be action.”
Profit-tax collections from the state’s 16 biggest banks, which were at $173 million in June 2007, fell to $5 million last month, Paterson noted. That’s a shocking 97 percent plunge.
From the Star Ledger:
Could Alcatel-Lucent’s weak sales spur N.J. job cuts?
When New Jersey’s Lucent Technologies merged with France’s Alcatel two years ago, it was billed as a merger of equals. But with the imminent departure of Pat Russo as chief executive, Alcatel-Lucent will assume a decidedly French tint.
That could translate into further job cuts on this side of the Atlantic, analysts said, particularly in the company’s wireless business, which took a $1.3 billion write-down for the second quarter because of a steeper-than-expected decline in the unit inherited from Lucent.
“It is very likely there are going to be more job cuts on the East Coast and New Jersey because of the slowdown in that business,” Ken Muth, an analyst at Robert Baird said. “I think you will see it go back to being more of a European or French company.”
…
While acknowledging a slowdown in the wireless business, Christy said “there’s no plan to reduce jobs, but we do mange the business by results and we will manage that business.” Alcatel-Lucent employs 4,800 people in New Jersey.
From the Record:
Paramus taxes going up 20 percent or more
Tax hikes of 20 percent or more are about to hit property owners along the prime Route 4 and 17 commercial corridors in Paramus, forcing landlords and their tenants to cut profits or raise rents, which could lead to higher prices for shoppers.
Richard Bombardieri leases space to the Men’s Warehouse on Route 17. His projected tax bill is estimated at about $13,000 more than it was last year – a cost he’ll pass along to his tenant.
“It’s ridiculous,” he said. “They’re not going to close down, but they’re not happy. They’re going to have to raise their prices.”
To consumers contending with a sputtering economy, that isn’t a welcome prospect. Fred Rohdieck, the president of the Paramus Chamber of Commerce, said storeowners have no choice, even though higher prices could translate into shoppers going elsewhere.
“You have to pass it on to consumers or go out of business,” he said. “It’s a vicious circle … there will be much more discriminating shoppers for sure.”
From the Daily Record:
Bennigan’s closes in Morris, files Chapter 7 bankruptcy
Bennigan’s closed its restaurants in Parsippany and Florham Park yesterday as the national restaurant chain filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, seeking to liquidate assets and shut down.
Its parent company, the privately held Metromedia Restaurant Group, based in Plano, Texas, also owns the Steak and Ale chain, which also filed Chapter 7 bankruptcy yesterday.
From MarketWatch:
SEC extends limits on naked short selling
The Securities and Exchange Commission has extended an order designed to prevent so-called naked short selling in stocks of major financial companies, including mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, for another two weeks.
The extension was announced by the federal agency late Tuesday. Originally a 10-day emergency order set to expire July 31, it now will run through Aug. 12 and won’t be extended further, the SEC said.
From the WSJ:
GM, Ford Scale Back
Car Leases as Era Ends
By JOHN D. STOLL, LIZ RAPPAPORT and MATTHEW DOLAN
July 30, 2008; Page A1
Detroit’s money troubles are starting to put a key part of the American dream — a pricey new car — out of reach for some people.
Squeezed by falling used-vehicle prices, as well as continued tumult in the credit markets on Wall Street, Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. are significantly scaling back their auto-leasing business.
Ford on Tuesday began telling dealers that it is essentially ending leasing deals on most trucks and sport-utility vehicles. GMAC LLC, GM’s financing arm, is also expected to rein in leasing offers in the U.S. soon, possibly this week, people familiar with the matter said. On Tuesday, it said it will no longer offer subsidized leases in Canada. Chrysler last week said it is ending all leasing deals in the U.S.
Leases at the Big Three auto makers account for about 20% of their total new-vehicle business, according to Automotive Lease Guide.
From Bloomberg:
New York’s Paterson Seeks Emergency Session as Deficit Balloons
New York Governor David Paterson called the Legislature back to work for emergency session next month to tackle a ballooning budget deficit caused by a slumping economy led by New York City’s faltering financial sector.
“We’re going to end the New York state legislators’ vacations and bring them back to Albany to reprioritize the way we manage New York state’s finances,” Paterson said in a five- minute address televised statewide. “For too long, we have done less with more and paid more for less.”
My favorite Paulson quote. “The era of buy now pay later is over.“
West Windsor mulls rezoning for COAH
Local officials believe that re zoning the properties for mixed use would protect West Windsor from footing the bill for buying land and building affordable housing itself.
By switching to mixed-use zon ing that requires housing for tracts along Route 1, including the 653-acre, commercially zoned Wyeth Tract at the northeast corner of Route 1 and Quakerbridge Road, the township could shift affordable housing obligations to developers.
“It is the only way out for West Windsor,” said Mayor Shing-Fu Hsueh of the plan that is currently in its early stages. “We have to re zone all of this to include housing- unit development.”
Earlier this month, the Hopewell Township Committee spent nearly $4 million to acquire 22 acres to fulfill its affordable housing mandates and is still looking to buy more.
From the WSJ:
Home Prices In May Took A Steep Fall
By ANTON TROIANOVSKI
July 30, 2008; Page A3
Home prices registered their sharpest annual declines in at least two decades as consumer gloom about the labor market deepened, according to two closely watched surveys.
…
“It’s not all a matter of tighter financial conditions scaring borrowers,” said Alan D. Levenson, chief economist for T. Rowe Price Associates. “Borrowers don’t want to borrow as much because the expected returns aren’t as great.”
…
Separately, the Conference Board said its consumer-confidence index rose slightly to 51.9 in July from 51.0 in June, the first increase after six months of sharp drops. But consumers’ assessment of their job prospects worsened somewhat, with those saying that jobs are harder to find increasing by about 0.6 percentage point.
About 16% of respondents now expect their family income to decrease in the next six months, up from 9.8% at the start of 2008. That is the highest reading since the survey began in 1967.
Commission ready to face COAH regs
Area towns have rallied against the state’s new affordable housing mandates. However, the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission (NJMC), the state-planning agency that controls eastern portions of south Bergen, is moving toward complying with new rules.
Since a New Jersey Appellate Court ruled the Meadowlands Commission is responsible to facilitate affordable housing in the district, the state agency had to keep up with the state’s ever-evolving policies on affordable housing.
Carlstadt, East Rutherford, Rutherford and North Arlington have all publicly decried the state’s new affordable housing mandates. All but Carlstadt have joined a lawsuit being prepared by the New Jersey League of Municipalities charging the state with inflating the calculation of affordable housing needed. The towns believe the affordable housing mandates will have a negative effect on property taxes and some say it could hamper development.
League challenge to COAH rules
Appeal to seek stay on deadline for filing housing plans
BY JAMIE ROMM Staff Writer
The New Jersey State League of Municipalities (NJLM) will appeal revised regulations adopted by the New Jersey Council on Affordable Housing (COAH) in June that set the number of affordable housing units towns must provide.
In announcing the action, the league, which filed notice of appeal with the Appellate Division of the Superior Court of New Jersey, said its challenge focuses on “the economic imbalances in the regulations adopted, and the flawed methodology comprising the vacant land analysis, the computation of jobs and housing projections through 2018.”
As part of the appeal, the league “will seek a limited and targeted stay from COAH to suspend the Dec. 31 deadline for the completion and submission of the revised third-round plans by the state’s municipalities,” according to a press release from the NJLM.
Grim~
Hamptons is a leading indicator because that is where the vacation homes are
Amid Housing Slump, Glut Eases Slightly
Rising Foreclosures, Tighter Credit Still
Pushing Down Prices; Economists Don’t Expect
Big Boost From Congressional Package
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
“We have the added weight of a recessionary economy” on what was already the weakest housing market since the 1930s, says Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group, an East Brunswick, N.J., appraisal firm. He says the market won’t recover fully until employment starts growing again and credit becomes more readily available.
don’t worry, your bday isn’t ruined Sir Mix-a-Lot, naked short selling isn’t what you think.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/87574-naked-short-selling-stunt-swatting-an-imaginary-fly
Grim (5):
More importantly the parent company also owns Steak and Ale the steak and ale chain which also filed for bankruptcy.
Its too bad I love the Steak and Ale off of 22 in Bethlehem, pa. We would go out there for dinner on special occasions quite once every few months. I will be sad to see it go.
To lower housing prices, look at Chicago
Median condominium prices in Chicago, notes Harvard urban economist Edward Glaeser, are $232,000. That’s very low, even a shade under those in Trenton, N.J. (The King County median price for condos is $285,000.) What do those smart urbanists in Chicago know about affordability?
The answer, according to this interview with Glaeser,director of Harvard’s Taubman Center for State and Local Government, is that Chicago is extremely pro-growth. Instead of layering on more and more land-use and design controls, Chicago has a pro-growth environment, and all those new housing units help keep the prices down.
I think the issues are similar to NJ Area
grim # 4
This will just push more peopl eto internet shopping. Although we will have to see at what point the IRS actually threatens to verify credit card activity around online shopping, now that all credit card transactions mmust be reported. Will the states be able to access that? I can see the states drooling over such a data base as a huge tax resourse.
Grim – Any way to tell if Pret is lurking or posting under another name?
I miss the guy’s spunky, passive-combative nature. I’ll take the guy anyday over this reinvestor jerkoff or that clueless clown Frank.
If NY state is getting hit si hard by the IB crash, then what happens to north jersey, that vast sea of wealth with quick access to manhatten? Could this be the straw that breaks the budget camels back, in NJ?
Laughing, i agree,
we need pretorious back. he made some intelligent comments unlike REcrybaby
“He says the market won’t recover fully until employment starts growing again and credit becomes more readily available.”
So I guess the market won’t fully recover.
Any way to tell if Pret is lurking or posting under another name?
No to the first part, and I seriously doubt he would post under another handle. Why would he need or want to anyway? I don’t think anyone here considered him a troll, in fact, many here have told me in private that they respect his commentary.
18 SG~
1. Maybe ChiFi can prove me wrong but the non-wall street pay there is about 50-70% of NYC wages for just about all careers.
2. I remember being out there and seeing the signs for one bedrooms in 2004 in the loop for like 200-250 and going wow, that would be a 1 million dollar condo in Manhattan
Here’s an idea – Since it appears the feds and politicians got us into this mess (everyone else is loosing money.) “Let’s tweak this here – hold rates low there.”
Why don’t we institute a draft – of politicians. Each state must send their best and brightest to congress for a two-year stint.
Leave your jobs/investments behind for a few years and come to Washington – you are drafted – your country needs you.
Nebraska – send us Buffett for his term – Washington – We’ll take Gates – just two years mind you. The jokers we have there now are running our country into the ground.
If you think about it, who runs for office any way? Certainly not the best and brightest – they are busy making sound business decisions. No, the only way we can get them to Washington – is to draft them.
I’m just saying…Anybody there in New Jersey who knows what they are doing?
California – Man, I don’t know…
ooppss loosing – is losing..
laugh (20)-
I honestly hope it is not true…but, my guess is that pret has been cashiered by his former firm.
The hamptons ARE insulated. Just not in THAT way.
Reuters is reporting that Bush signed the bill but I can’t find it anywhere else????
Fewer N.J. state workers than expected accept early retirement.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/local/nj/20080730_Fewer_N_J__state_workers_than_expected_accept_early_retirement.html
Bush signs housing rescue law
President enacts controversial measure that aims to help borrowers, bolster the housing market and provide a fail-safe for Fannie and Freddie.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/30/news/economy/housing_bill_Bush/index.htm?cnn=yes
(32) Thanks njbear – Now it’s at Associated Press too.
From CNBC:
Mortgage Applications at Slowest Pace Since 2000
Applications for U.S. home mortgages dropped to their slowest pace since December 2000 as loan rates hovering near one-year highs compounded the housing market’s woes, according to data from an industry group on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity declined 14.1 percent to 420.8 in the week ended July 25.
The decline was the most severe move in percentage terms since May.
The MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications plunged 22.9 percent to 1,074.4 last week.
The MBA’s gauge of loan requests for home purchases fell 7.8 percent to 309.5.
9 Tom
“My favorite Paulson quote. “The era of buy now pay later is over.“”
Unless he’s telling us that we’re going to be balancing the federal budget instead of borrowing half a trillion dollars, then I think the biggest era of buy now pay later ever will continue humming along quite nicely, thank you very much.
clot
“I honestly hope it is not true…but, my guess is that pret has been cashiered by his former firm.”
I fear the same. Now who’s going to tout the almighty power of the CFA?
Definitely not a troll, and put too much work into contributing to the blog (crunching numbers and creating graphs, etc. etc.) to think otherwise.
from cnn
” CBO estimates that the agency is only likely to insure up to $68 billion and help keep roughly 325,000 people in their homes”
>>
I bet the number is going go well beyond 68B. 68B/325k ~= 210K. Average home price nationwide is about 210K. What’s the average home price in NJ?
interesting little story out of Colorado.
you could easily replace CO w/ NJ in this story.
“Builders pay the price”
http://tinyurl.com/55yoj4
So… taxes, affordable housing, declining sales of everything. Any good news today before I slit my wrists?
In the July 28th issue of Barron’s, the paper stated that the town of East Hampton faces a $12M defecit and recently had $900 in its bank accout, struggling to meet payroll. Mortgage tax revenue was down approx 40%.
I guess all the celebs/power brokers have decided to squash plans on buying in the Hampton’s. Any truth to the rumor that a 500K pos, cape in Lodi will be the beneficiary?
Beijing is now more expensive than New York City.
http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Article_forbes.aspx?cp-documentid=8841939>1=35000
Cindy Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 7:13 am
ooppss loosing – is losing..
C: I kill you….
JB,
#41, m*ntal?
RPatrick Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 7:02 am
18 SG~
1. Maybe ChiFi can prove me wrong but the non-wall street pay there is about 50-70% of NYC wages for just about all careers.
RP: yes, but also it lacks an entire swath of affluent Europeans, Southern Americans and Asians that you find in NYC. The weather also acts to sandbag prices.
Their loss is your gain. I wouldn’t live there, but it is the Heaven on Earth in May/early June and September.
my guess is that pret has been cashiered
If that’s true, then best of luck to him.
He was a decent poster who at least tried to support his arguments with data.
Has Richard posted at all recently?
SG
Beijing is now more expensive than New York City. and twice as polluted as NYC.
at least that is what i hear from people who have been there.
FYI Met Fans
Fri, Aug 15 @ Pittsburgh 7:05 PM
Sat, Aug 16 @ Pittsburgh 7:05 PM
Sun, Aug 17 @ Pittsburgh 1:35 PM
Mon, Aug 18 @ Pittsburgh 12:35 PM
Stay at the Westin…..
Memories for a lifetime….
Anyone know a good mortgage guy/gal for a refi?
clot
WSJ
Behind the Boom and Bust Of Real-Estate Player Vesta
By KRIS HUDSON
July 30, 2008; Page C1
A firm that acted as a middle man in a popular real-estate-investment strategy has closed its doors, leaving investors scrambling to recover millions and pointing to flaws in the largely unregulated industry.
“Hamptons Home Prices Fall on Wall Street Jobs, Economic Outlook ”
“Hamptons prices have jumped almost 70 percent since 2003, up from a median of $436,500, according to data collected by Hampton Bays-based Suffolk Research Inc. By comparison, the median price of an existing U.S. home climbed 19 percent to $208,600 in the five years ended in May, according to the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors.
Prices in the Hamptons continued to climb through 2007, even as median prices in the rest of the nation fell for the first time since the Great Depression. ”
Prices are up 70%!! Where’s the gloom and doom?
Patient previous thread
All the articles about ACORN’s voter fraud were listed on sites that seemed to be right wing in nature. I saw something about charges but I didn’t see anything about actually finding them guilty. Go figure.
I’d like to call everyone’s attention to a couple of the early John-style Creative Writing submissions at the end of yesterday’s thread. Nicholas in particular really nailed it.
Requisite references to “hookers and blow” plus a few unique spellings and the obligatory mangled syntax are mandatory in all submissions.
Have at it, students of the genre’
Demand Surges on Foreclosure Sites
In June, 1.82 billion people searched for the term “foreclosure,” according to research firm comScore (SCOR), which launched a search marketing tool last year to track searches. That’s an increase of 117% from 12 months earlier.
Among the most popular online resources are those aimed at helping people sell distressed properties at a discount. Foreclosure.com, a decade-old database of distressed real estate, is among the most visited sites in the category, comScore data show.
Among the most popular online resources are those aimed at helping people sell distressed properties at a discount. Foreclosure.com, a decade-old database of distressed real estate, is among the most visited sites in the category, comScore data show.
“Where’s the gloom and doom?”
Frank,
I guess you could start at the intersection of I-95 and Scotch Road.
(42) Chicago – ” C: I kill you…” ???
I’m sorry Chicago, I’m slower than snot. I don’t get it. It that another Van Halen song?
Wednesday’s economic calendar featured the ADP estimate of July payrolls, which indicated a 9,000 improvement in private-sector jobs.
>>
Happy days are back!
Frank is the worst troll ever. Frank, can you at least be funny like ReInvestor or financially beneficial like Bi?
BC Bob,
Any new news from Scotch rd? My last update is at least a month old.
CU (48)-
Send me your e-mail thru Grim. I can recommend somenone.
Bush signs housing bill to provide mortgage relief
WASHINGTON – President Bush on Wednesday signed a massive housing bill intended to provide mortgage relief for 400,000 struggling homeowners and stabilize financial markets.
Bush signed the bill without any fanfare or signing ceremony, affixing his signature to the measure he once threatened to veto, in the Oval Office in the early morning hours. He was surrounded by top administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Housing Secretary Steve Preston.
I guess you could start at the intersection of I-95 and Scotch Road.
I hear Pennington is walking on egg shells BC.
Fed to leave deposit bottle window open forever. Will now just leave stacks of t-notes there; drop off your cans & bottles, and take your notes. “Honor system” applies.
“Bush signed the bill without any fanfare or signing ceremony…”
When did he do this? 3 AM?
#55 bc bob –
doom and gloom … “at the intersection of I-95 and Scotch Road.”
What is going on over there anyway? I live on the other side of the river, and I drive by that new office park once in a while. I only see it from the highway, though. I remember thinking “where is the demand?” when they first started building.
Is the project in trouble?
Fed to leave deposit bottle window open forever. Will now just leave stacks of t-notes there; drop off your cans & bottles, and take your notes. “Honor system” applies.
Clot,
I know it’s early but I nominate abov for the POST OF THE DAY!
Mr. Cox is going hard on naked short sellers.
chicagofinance
My wife’s family is from Pittsburgh. Go easy on the Primanti Brothers. Have you been to the Church Brew Works? If god doesn’t strike you dead for being a Met or Pirate fan, he won’t get you for drinking in a church.
wake up from a nightmare ??
#65 Clotpoll Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 9:06 am
“Bush signed the bill without any fanfare or signing ceremony…”
When did he do this? 3 AM?
About Jamil and ACORN and the Republican Motus Operandi:
The Republicans have mastered the art of making accusations become truths in the minds of their followers. The list is endless. From weapons of mass destruction to African uranium sales, and the Chinese and Russian’s drilling off the coast of Florida for oil. Bring democracy to the Middle East? Come on!
I invite Jamil to come up with such a list of similar Democratic lies. Good luck!
I only wish the Dems could show some backbone and play some of these lying games. In my opinion, they are just as bad as the Republicans since they just go along with so many of the Republican lies to try to save face with the majority.
In the name of ‘free market’??
#68 John Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Mr. Cox is going hard on naked short sellers.
53: lost “Patient previous thread
All the articles about ACORN’s voter fraud were listed on sites that seemed to be right wing in nature. I saw something about charges but I didn’t see anything about actually finding them guilty. Go figure.”
Uh. You can find the indictments and convictions (and guilty pleas and settlements) in many sites (WSJ etc). Naturally, MSM downplays them (of course, had it been the other party doing this, it would have been front-page news at NYT for months and subject of endless congressional hearings).
Btw, this is from Seattle Times
“Workers accused of concocting the biggest voter-registration-fraud scheme in state history said they were under pressure from the community-organizing group that hired them to sign up more voters, according to charging papers filed Thursday.”
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003808207_votefraud27m.html
ACORN is sponsored by unions, George Soros and US taxpayers and it is actively opposing Voter ID laws (which every country outside Africa has) and carrying out voter fraud in massive scale.
As for US attorney firings njpatient ranted: One US attorney (known democrat) refused to investigate this in one state despite credible evidence, and this, along with other things led to unsatisfactory performance evaluation and recommendation not to extend employment. Sounds pretty standard (unlike Bill Clinton firing all US attorneys who were investigating criminal activity of Bill Clinton).
Cindy Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 8:58 am
I don’t get it. It that another Van Halen song?
C: it is a pet peeve…
who need a job pls raise your hand? we have plenty of opening in the service sector
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/30/news/economy/ADP/?postversion=2008073009
Small business aids payroll boost – survey
Private sector unexpectedly gains 9,000 jobs, driven by service sector, according to payroll manager ADP. Construction sector sheds jobs for 20th straight month.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The private sector gained 9,000 jobs in July, primarily among small businesses and the service sector, according to a report payroll manager ADP released Wednesday.
RayC Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 9:37 am
My wife’s family is from Pittsburgh. Go easy on the Primanti Brothers. Have you been to the Church Brew Works? If god doesn’t strike you dead for being a Met or Pirate fan, he won’t get you for drinking in a church.
Ray: I don’t know if I can make it actually…I was just passing along the good info….I love that park, batting practice and the whole scene….AND IT’S CHEAP AS ALL HELL AS A BONUS. I bet it is cheaper to drive there, buy tickets, food etc, than go to Shea….at least from where I am down the shore….
Did you know that the Verrazano is $10 in the toll direction? WTF is that!?
I’m sure it’s different in NJ..
Prerequisite to Attaining Florida Mortgage Broker License: Criminal Record
“From 2000 to 2007, the OFR (Office of Financial Regulation) allowed at least 10,529 persons with criminal records to begin arranging and selling Florida mortgages. Of that motley throng, 4,065 somehow cleared background checks even though most had previously committed serious crimes — including bank robbery, racketeering, extortion and fraud — that by law should have kept them out of the mortgage business.”
Here are the high-paying jobs to be created, if you’re still wondering:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=am2yQYThqmxQ&refer=us
New Regulator
The law creates a new, independent regulator called the Federal Housing Finance Agency. It would ensure that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac adhere to minimum capital requirements, limit the size of portfolios and oversee executive pay for the two government-sponsored enterprises.
“It’s not all a matter of tighter financial conditions scaring borrowers,” said Alan D. Levenson, chief economist for T. Rowe Price Associates. “Borrowers don’t want to borrow as much because the expected returns aren’t as great.”
Good point. It’s not made often enough.
There are a lot of Alt-A/stated income loans in NJ. People misrepresented their incomes to buy more house than they could really afford. But when houses go up 15% per year, why not? Using the magic of leverage with an I/O, one could easily see a return of over 100% on their mortgage payments.
Now that a mortgage payment is again seen as a large monthly expense rather than highly leveraged & lucrative investment vehicle, the willingness to pay 50% of ones income is no longer there.
http://pittsburgh.pirates.mlb.com/scripts/ballpark_seating_popup_window.jsp?
http://pittsburgh.pirates.mlb.com/pit/images/seating_views/photo_seating_view117.jpg
Batting practice…..you are bombed with fly balls…..
http://pittsburgh.pirates.mlb.com/pit/images/seating_views/photo_seating_view135.jpg
79: “There are a lot of Alt-A/stated income loans in NJ. People misrepresented their incomes”
nothing will change unless these people are prosecuted and sent to jail in droves.
Here is the scary part for future air travel w. AA – “American said it would also lay off about 1,500 maintenance jobs and 200 pilots.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/900-flight-attendants-volunteer-leave/story.aspx?guid=%7BB2074962-0A6F-4ECA-933B-A28A6E3764CE%7D&dist=msr_2
900 flight attendants volunteer to leave American Airlines
i’m bearish on RE and economy too, but trying to maintain some objectivity nonetheless. Did anyone notice that the rate of case shiller price declines have been slowing over the last three months? Why arent media and cnn all over that? the only sources covering that observable fact were kudlow & craemer and the lesser known ISI yesterday. Even wsj failed to report it.
73 Jamil
Again, you offer no post of workers found guilty. You offer an article about them being charged. I’m about done with this conversation.
Again, I don’t hold an entire organization corrupt because of the actions of a few.
could be a good concept for new book ’empire of prisons’tm
#83 jamil Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 9:57 am
79: “There are a lot of Alt-A/stated income loans in NJ. People misrepresented their incomes”
nothing will change unless these people are prosecuted and sent to jail in droves.
84 Holy moly! I’m not a fan of AA but I do feel for their employees. *hopes Jet Blue hold on through the holidays*
[19] Kettle,
States are already there and have been for some time.
Developers and business-related organizations contend that new affordable housing rules in New Jersey that went into effect this month are burdensome and have begun to discourage economic development across the Garden State.
Rick Riccardi, president of Marathon Engineering and Environmental Services Inc. in Logan, Gloucester County, is starting to see the impact of the affordable housing rules that were enacted June 2.
Developers of commercial projects are abandoning plans; others are trying to figure out, if they do move forward, how to pony up millions of dollars to satisfy new financial requirements that fund affordable housing statewide.
For example, a developer of a proposed power plant in West Deptford, Gloucester County, will need to pay a $45 million lump sum to the state before receiving certificate of occupancy, Riccardi said.
http://philadelphia.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/stories/2008/06/30/story2.html?b=1214798400%5E1659912
Did anyone notice that the rate of case shiller price declines have been slowing over the last three months?
I haven’t looked at the 10 or 20 city indicies with any real detail, mainly because I’m not quite sure how to interpret what those indicies mean. But I do look at the index that most closely matches up with OUR market, and I’m not seeing anything that appears to be a slowdown in the rate of decline.
S&P CS NY Metro Area Commutable
Year over Year Change
Jan 07 -0.34%
Feb 07 -0.91%
Mar 07 -0.91%
Apr 07 -1.56%
May 07 -2.35%
Jun 07 -2.94%
Jul 07 -3.20%
Aug 07 -3.35%
Sep 07 -3.61%
Oct 07 -4.08%
Nov 07 -4.50%
Dec 07 -5.29%
Jan 08 -5.64%
Feb 08 -6.62%
Mar 08 -7.47%
Apr 08 -7.95%
May 08 -7.90%
Jamil…
Did you actually read the “voter fraud” article that you posted? The case involves canvassers who were hired by ACORN to register voters. Instead of canvassing, the workers went to the library and filled out registration cards. As the article clearly states, this did not lead to a single fraudulent vote. Basically, these fools ripped off ACORN and ACORN fully cooperated in their prosecution.
I am a progressive lefty who believes that we should naturalize every illegal and have open borders. Having established that, I have a suggestion to you, and you alone:
Go back where ya came from, loser.
“Did anyone notice that the rate of case shiller price declines have been slowing over the last three months?”
[85],
The good news, the cancer is spreading less rapidly. The bad news, it’s terminal.
[31] DL
Why accept early retirement when being on the payroll brings in more money and isn’t that much of a lifestyle change?
Also keep in mind we are at a point where we are compounding multi-year declines. So while the year over year rate of decline has dropped to 7.90% from 7.95%, on a multi-year basis the decline continues to increase.
S&P CS NY Metro Area Commutable
Percent off Peak (June 2006)
Jul 06 -0.27%
Aug 06 -0.69%
Sep 06 -0.81%
Oct 06 -0.72%
Nov 06 -0.74%
Dec 06 -0.95%
Jan 07 -1.41%
Feb 07 -1.53%
Mar 07 -1.59%
Apr 07 -1.96%
May 07 -2.46%
Jun 07 -2.94%
Jul 07 -3.46%
Aug 07 -4.02%
Sep 07 -4.39%
Oct 07 -4.77%
Nov 07 -5.21%
Dec 07 -6.19%
Jan 08 -6.97%
Feb 08 -8.05%
Mar 08 -8.94%
Apr 07 -9.75%
May 07 -10.17%
Someone explain to me why people who are working, and living somewhat comfortably, are allowed to collect social security while they’re still working? This is the kind of thing that will dry social security up long before I’m dried up enough to collect it.
Here are the national level:
YEAR QTR S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index RateChange%
2000 Q1 100.00 1.74%
2000 Q2 103.77 3.77%
2000 Q3 106.33 2.47%
2000 Q4 107.90 1.48%
2001 Q1 109.27 1.27%
2001 Q2 112.69 3.13%
2001 Q3 115.50 2.49%
2001 Q4 116.23 0.63%
2002 Q1 118.00 1.52%
2002 Q2 122.24 3.59%
2002 Q3 126.13 3.18%
2002 Q4 128.58 1.94%
2003 Q1 130.48 1.48%
2003 Q2 134.20 2.85%
2003 Q3 138.41 3.14%
2003 Q4 142.29 2.80%
2004 Q1 146.26 2.79%
2004 Q2 152.92 4.55%
2004 Q3 158.53 3.67%
2004 Q4 163.06 2.86%
2005 Q1 169.19 3.76%
2005 Q2 176.70 4.44%
2005 Q3 183.08 3.61%
2005 Q4 186.97 2.12%
2006 Q1 188.66 0.90%
2006 Q2 189.93 0.67%
2006 Q3 189.00 -0.49%
2006 Q4 187.31 -0.89%
2007 Q1 185.40 -1.02%
2007 Q2 183.57 -0.99%
2007 Q3 180.28 -1.79%
2007 Q4 170.62 -5.36%
2008 Q1 159.18 -6.70%
#91 grim Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 10:06 am
Did anyone notice that the rate of case shiller price declines have been slowing over the last three months?
92: Yeah, now it is poor ACORN that is the real victim. No voter fraud here, despite all the convictions and guilty pleas and statements to the court that ACORN pressured them to do it.
Had the case not being discovered, the fraudulent voter registrations would have been used since no ID is required (and ACORN makes sure people without IDs cannot be challenged). I’m sure you support this scheme, but as the workers said in court papers, they were pressured by ACORN to do it. Maybe this is the co-operating part in your mind. Besides, this has been happening all over the country so ACORN clearly could not care less about ending this.
As for ACORN co-operating with police..Well, even beyond voter fraud, this is the last thing ACORN does (even in financial fraud), unlike other non-profits:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/09/us/09embezzle.html?ex=1373342400&en=d2ad71953fd2c157&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink
“He said the decision to keep the matter secret was not made to protect his brother but because word of the embezzlement would have put a “weapon” into the hands of enemies of Acorn..But the fact that most of the handful of people who did not disclose the fraud when they learned of it eight years ago still work for Acorn or its affiliates concerns many of the group’s financial supporters.”
79: “There are a lot of Alt-A/stated income loans in NJ. People misrepresented their incomes”
nothing will change unless these people are prosecuted and sent to jail in droves.
Nah, it’s already changing. Stated income loans are either unavailable or prohibitively expensive. At the same time, people aren’t as willing to buy a home that they can’t afford.
Those who went “stated income’ will either face foreclosure or years of struggling with an oversized payment on an asset falling in value.
I realize declines are increasing, but rate of decreases seem to be slowing. thanks grim for the NY metro data. Seems that rates of decline improving over past four months when you look at ny metro (see below). Not interpreting or reading into this but could possibly slow the hemoraging in financials if media gets a hold of it and spins it as the beginnings of price decline ‘stabilization’. Obviously increasing declines yoy are still really bad.
Month YOY Difference in change
Feb 08 -6.62% -0.98%
Mar 08 -7.47% -0.85%
Apr 08 -7.95% -0.48%
May 08 -7.90% 0.05%
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Shares of CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. (CBG:cb richard ellis group inc, the world’s largest commercial real estate services firm in terms of revenue, fell 22% on Wednesday after the company reported earnings and revenue came in short of analyst estimates. The company late Tuesday said that its profit fell 88% to $16.6 million, or 8 cents a share, down from $141.1 million, or 59 cents a share, a year earlier. Analysts’ mean estimates were for per-share earnings of 44 cents on revenue of $1.42 billion, according to a poll by Thomson Reuters. “Based upon our initial review of the numbers we offer three key takeaways: sales weakness has spread globally now as opposed to mostly in the US in the first quarter of 2008, leasing activities are now also weakening after a strong first quarter, and lastly investment management incentive fees now look to be essentially non- existent in 2008,” Citigroup analysts said in a Wednesday research report..
lostinny Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 10:14 am
Someone explain to me why people who are working, and living somewhat comfortably, are allowed to collect social security while they’re still working? This is the kind of thing that will dry social security up long before I’m dried up enough to collect it.
lost: because they paid for it…..I have a much greater degree of tolerance for people older than 66 who want to continue being productive than the clowns who think it is their birthright to retire at 58 with full benefits and a cushy pension after a lifetime of denying themselves nothing…..
ChiFi
I know they paid for it. But they don’t need it. I mean, wasn’t ss created to help make ends meet after retirement? Why collect it when it isn’t neccesary? I’m not talking about people who can’t pay their bills. I’m talking about people who are doing fine but take it just because they can. Just because you can doesn’t mean you should.
And I’m one of those people who will be able to retire at 58 with a pension (if it still exists). But I’ve denied myself a lot during my lifetime and as I age, I’m sure there will be more I will be denied.
# 95
“So while the year over year rate of decline has dropped to 7.90% from 7.95%, on a multi-year basis the decline continues to increase”
Grim,
Add to this the overall inflation rate and price declines are even greater. If prices were flat but income went up 3% a year, over two years the price is a bit less than 94% percent of what it was.
We were looking at some weekend places in Monmouth county yesterday (from Sea Girt to Ocean Grove) and noticed a real change in attitude by RE agents and less crazy pricing.
2 laughing: from the article
“But the governor’s five-minute speech offered few specific solutions to a three-year budget deficit.. The governor demonstrated that he is ready to stand up to the interest groups that will no doubt protest before the State House, just as they took to the steps of City Hall earlier this year,” Bloomberg said.”
Great to keep them working (why congress can’t do this?), but no specifics offered, other than one-time gimmicks (sale of state property). As NYT investigation found out, NY state Medicaid fraud alone takes up to $18B every year. Now ending that would be “tackling the special interest groups”.
100 Veto
MOM differences in YOY data are meaningless. What is meaningful is the MOM change, the YOY change and the percent off peak prices.
“Seems that rates of decline improving over past four months when you look at ny metro (see below).”
The C/S numbers are not seasonally or inflation adjusted and they are months late. You are looking at the spring bounce and saying “Well things are looking better” which is exactly what they said during the spring bounce.
As you can see over the last few months new housing starts are down, sales of existing homes are down, and mortgage applications are dropping. Expect C/S index to show further declines for the next three months.
Remember the fall bounce is in full effect right now and by all accounts it isn’t looking good right now for recovery.
We are now starting to see a lot of REO’s hit the market with prices dropping nicely. A co-worker of mine is looking for a home also and he has been sitting on the sidelines for a while too. He noted that a house he previously looked at was selling for 420,000-450,000 is now REO and has a list price of 230,000.
C/S index is great for determining what happened but because it is published two months late it really loses a lot, too bad it isn’t published 15 days after the month ends.
102, 103:
Two words: Means testing.
SSI is an insurance fund, not a retirement investment.Hence the acronym, “OASDI.”
Thanks for the vote of confidence on the John impersonation award.
I look forward to a challenger or maybe even a head to head competition with the man himself…
73 jamil
That entire post is so wrong in every respect that I hardly know where to start. I’ll deal with it later today.
real inflation is running around 12%. tack that onto those numbers and see what you get.
lost. where’s your orig data context?
#100 Veto Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Month YOY Difference in change
Feb 08 -6.62% -0.98%
Mar 08 -7.47% -0.85%
Apr 08 -7.95% -0.48%
May 08 -7.90% 0.05%
A co-worker of mine is looking for a home also and he has been sitting on the sidelines for a while too. He noted that a house he previously looked at was selling for 420,000-450,000 is now REO and has a list price of 230,000.
So that house I was looking at a year ago listed for $650,000 should now be listed somewhere around $400,000. Correct? Except, it isn’t. It’s listed at $610,000 with the hopes of snagging a moron. It still ain’t happening here. There’s some reduction, but things are still not far from the moon shot prices.
Jamey
Nice high horse ya got there.
Date NY-New York Index MOM 1st Derivative MOM 2nd Derivative
January 2006 213.5
February 2006 214.47 0.45%
March 2006 214.33 -0.07% -114%
April 2006 214.97 0.30% -557%
May 2006 215.57 0.28% -7%
June 2006 215.83 0.12% -57%
July 2006 215.25 -0.27% -323%
August 2006 214.34 -0.42% 57%
September 2006 214.08 -0.12% -71%
October 2006 214.28 0.09% -177%
November 2006 214.23 -0.02% -125%
December 2006 213.79 -0.21% 780%
January 2007 212.78 -0.47% 130%
February 2007 212.52 -0.12% -74%
March 2007 212.39 -0.06% -50%
April 2007 211.61 -0.37% 500%
May 2007 210.51 -0.52% 42%
June 2007 209.49 -0.48% -7%
July 2007 208.36 -0.54% 11%
August 2007 207.15 -0.58% 8%
September 2007 206.35 -0.39% -33%
October 2007 205.55 -0.39% 0%
November 2007 204.57 -0.48% 23%
December 2007 202.44 -1.04% 118%
January 2008 200.94 -0.74% -29%
February 2008 198.60 -1.16% 57%
March 2008 196.56 -1.03% -12%
April 2008 193.93 -1.34% 30%
73 jamil
“That entire post is so wrong in every respect that I hardly know where to start. I’ll deal with it later today.”
Facts are stubborn thing, njpatient.
You can explain all you want, but in the end of day the fact is that ACORN workers have committed voter fraud at least in half-dozen states that we know of (resulting in various convictions, guilty pleas, and settlements), in addition to ACORN fanatically opposing Voter ID laws (which is logical, given their fraudulent voter registration efforts). You just can’t explain that away so don’t bother.
Jamil,
I dare you to read this.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/the-war-on-voting-rights-voter.php
I didn’t realize that the reason the Republicans wanted to require ID was to ensure that so many minority voters (mostly Dems) who do not have ID do not get their chance to vote.
And let’s see some ACORN indictments smart guy.
Spent any time on a swift boat lately?
116 jamil
“Facts are stubborn thing, njpatient.”
Or so you’ve heard.
I refer you to stu at 117.
Thanks stu.
I’ll still have some further take-downs of your fever-swamp stupidity later today, jamil.
I does not see the trend (2nd deri) to be slowing down so far, when you’re looking at my MOM change calculation (#115).
The 2nd deri is a positive number from March08 to April08 (30%). This indicate an accerated down trend.
#100 Veto Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 10:34 am
I realize declines are increasing, but rate of decreases seem to be slowing.
btw, njpatient: Few weeks ago we talked about 401k fees.
This may be of interest:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/retirement/2008-07-21-401k-fees_N.htm
“401(k) proposal would clarify fees
A regulation that the Labor Department plans to propose Tuesday would require employers to disclose more information — and in a clearer format — to workers about fees and investments in 401(k) plans, now the main retirement-savings vehicle for millions of Americans.”
This sounds great as now the regulations do not really require full and clear disclosure of 401k fees (ie in addition to expense ratio, other feed are hidden elsewhere).
It doesnt pay to deny yourself things you want…as long as the things you want dont put you in the poor house. Save a litte, spend a little is what I live by.
I predict college will soon only be for the wealthy again.
I realize declines are increasing, but rate of decreases seem to be slowing. thanks grim for the NY metro data. Seems that rates of decline improving over past four months
I think you are overly parsing the numbers. Besides, even if the rate of decline stopped getting worse and held at – 7.95% annual, that’s still very bearish.
In any case, I think we will see another autumn drop. Enough sellers will be ready to capitulate at the end of the summer selling season and lower their prices, rather than face the prospect of re-listing in the spring. I think this could be especially true this year as heating prices are through the roof and there is little hope for a spring recovery.
I really feel bad for the people who commute to NJ/NY from the Poconos or other far region because they couldnt afford Bergen County
“MOM differences in YOY data are meaningless.”
Trader, could you elaborate? I am thinking that mom differences in yoy data are comparable since the yoy data adjusts for seasonality. Therefore, mom comparisons of yoy data should be equivalent to seasonally adjusted mom comparisons. No?
#111 kettle1
I just paid $5.49 for a 46 oz bottle of Canola oil. WTF! I remember paying $3.99 last year for the same bottle.
Yeah Let’s turn more corn into ethanol!! So much better then researching turning algae into ethanol with a potential energy yield of 16 times corn. But hey, we don’t have algae farmers in the midwest.
Jamil,
The 401k fleecing through hidden fees will continue for that is the way the system works.
My advice to most is to change jobs and roll your 401K into and IRA where you can choose among virtually any investment vehicle.
Agree. statistically nonsignificant.
#106 Trader Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 10:57 am
100 Veto
MOM differences in YOY data are meaningless. What is meaningful is the MOM change, the YOY change and the percent off peak prices.
Gary,
I live in MD and there are some differences between the market here and where you are but on the whole there are a lot of similarities, hence why I continue reading this blog.
The area that he was looking at is in Laurel, MD (Laurel Lakes Community) and by all accounts it is not the nicest neighborhood to live in. They are experiencing a large number of defaults and there is a huge glut of similar units that remain for sale; Townhomes, Condos, and SFH. The SFH prices pretty much set the ceiling for the Townhomes and Condos since they are the high end of the community.
With the SFHs dropping from 420 to 230 that only leaves more pressue for the Townhomes and Condos to slide further. The foclosure/short sale/REO markets are just obliterating sale prices around here.
Bank sales are “real” and should be taken into account when looking at comparables around the area. Depressed areas are seeing the highest number of forclosures but they exist in the high end areas too.
I have about five real world stories of high end homes getting slammed, forclosed on, or pinched because of the falling market that I could share some time.
#120 jamil,
When I worked for Citipoop, they were charging the employees $90 a quarter for any employee with a 401k balance over 30k. They also offered mostly Smith barney funds.
#129 that $90 fee was on top of the maintenance fees charged by the funds.
117 stu: “And let’s see some ACORN indictments smart guy.”
If you are too lazy to find yourself, here are couple of them:
seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003806904_webvotefraud26m.html
“King and Pierce County prosecutors filed felony charges today against seven people who allegedly committed the biggest voter-registration fraud in state history.
The defendants, who were paid employees and supervisors of ACORN,”
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110009189
“So, less than a week before the midterm elections, four workers from Acorn, the liberal activist group that has registered millions of voters, have been indicted by a federal grand jury for submitting false voter registration forms to the Kansas City, Missouri, election board. But hey, who needs voter ID laws?”
http://www.nlpc.org/view.asp?action=viewArticle&aid=2048
“ACORN Worker Pleads Guilty to Vote Fraud in Kansas City, Mo.”
Bairen
That’s a hefty fee. Wow.
jamil – you didn’t read stu’s link, did you.
Gary,
I thought your were still in the Outer Banks, sipping martini’s?
Veto, btw, i think you forget the divider in your calculation.
Month YOY_Difference change
Feb08 -6.62%
Mar08 -7.47% 13%
Apr08 -7.95% 6%
May08 -7.90% -1%
#100 Veto
MOM differences in YOY data are meaningless. What is meaningful is the MOM change, the YOY change and the percent off peak prices.
The other thing I am seeing in the markets is a wide disparity between value and price. You go look at a 3 bedroom house in a nice community and it is listed at 399,000$ and just down the street there is a 3 bedroom waterfront property listed at 445,000$. Waterfront for 45,000$ premium, comes with its own pier?
I didn’t go into these houses to check out all the comparables but it really gives me the sense that RE agents and appraisers have a lot of work to do organizing the market. I can’t tell where value and price meet anymore.
This may be because of all the new RE agents that joined the market during the boom years not losing control of pricing. It may also be due to falling house prices throwing values around like a can of dropped pick-up-stix.
Either way, I probably wont feel comfortable looking for a house until the madness ends, just a waste of my time.
126 stu: “The 401k fleecing through hidden fees will continue for that is the way the system works.
My advice to most is to change jobs and roll your 401K into and IRA where you can choose among virtually any investment vehicle.”
If people can see (in a clear format) how much they are paying for their 401k funds, maybe more of them will demand better 401k provider from their employer. Changing jobs because of lousy 401k might actually make sense sometimes (as you should think of it as part of total compensation), but if you if you ever intend to do IRA conversion, it may get complicated and less optimal after 401k-to-IRA transfer.
[126] Jamil and Stu
One reason not to do that right now would be if Jamil has traditional IRAs that he will convert to Roths once the restrictions on conversions are lifted after next year. Since you have to recognize gains, the rules provide that you can’t cherry pick the IRAs to roll over.
Conversely, if you plan to convert everything to Roth at the first opportunity, then it makes sense to get out from under the 401(k) fee structure, but make sure the mutual fund fee structure in the IRA isn’t equally onerous. Some or most of the fee erosion will still be present in an IRA invested in mutual funds.
bairen,
more fun numbers
real unemployment is running at 14%
real GDP is running at -2%
M3 is running at 16%
Financial weighted dollar indices are around 45
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
Nicholas,
Come up to Northern NJ and witness the stupidity the sheep still insist on inflicting upon themselves. Knucklehead decisions made by too many dolts. It’s tragedy and comedy all rolled into one.
133: patient “jamil – you didn’t read stu’s link, did you.”
Uh..Ultra-fan left talking points. Even Mexico, Iraq, and Afghanistan have voter ID laws and the reason why dems oppose it is that it makes voter fraud more difficult (ie wrt dead people, illegals and double-voting). In fact, Supreme Court had a case earlier in the year about this. Liberals had a poster child who was denied voter registration. Well, it turned out that she indeed committed voter (and tax) fraud as she was registered in two states. Too bad for ACORN. All 9 SC justices rejected ACORN talking points.
“Voter cited by opponents of Indiana’s ID law registered in two states”
http://www.kpcnews.com/articles/2008/01/09/news/today/evening_star/doc478441f2313a5420740819.txt
In the end ACORN and its ilk made the case why we need voter ID laws. Talk about irony here, but I applaud ACORN for making the case.
NJl$rd
He was looking at the difference in percent change not the percent change in the percent change.
I agree that looking at the difference in percent change of YOY statistics doesn’t provide too much useful data. As stated before, seasonal effects play a very large role.
Kettle1: Check out safflower oil. It’s holds up to heat like canola oil and has a neutral flavor. It’s also a lot healthier. My sister turned me on to it years ago and I now only use olive oil when the flavor is key and safflower for everything else except sesame for some chinese recipes. They sell it pretty cheaply at Trader Joe’s.
ok tks for correcting this
#143 Nicholas Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 11:46 am
NJl$rd
He was looking at the difference in percent change not the percent change in the percent change.
I agree that looking at the difference in percent change of YOY statistics doesn’t provide too much useful data. As stated before, seasonal effects play a very large role.
I visit Piscataway and Red Bank every once in a while. The company I work for is based in those locations.
I am hoping that I can one day make it to a gtg on company time.
Moderation?
NJl$rd
I wonder where your data is coming from? It doesnt match the spreadsheet posted on this blog, and it also doesnt match the data grim posted. I’m also curious why you are leaving may out. i didnt leave a divisor out, I’m simply calclating the difference in percentage declines, not trying to calculate the percentage difference in declines. I dont think your second derivative calc works since you are calculating a percentage of percentage. Just look at difference in percentage declines.
Here is what I see… declining rate of declines, see last column.
NY Metro CS Index
Date | Price | YOY Change | MOM Diff
January 2007 212.78
February 2007 212.52
March 2007 212.39
April 2007 211.61
May 2007 210.51
June 2007 209.49
July 2007 208.36
August 2007 207.15
September 2007 206.35
October 2007 205.54
November 2007 204.58
December 2007 202.47
January 2008 200.78 -5.64%
February 2008 198.45 -6.62% 0.98%
March 2008 196.53 -7.47% 0.85%
April 2008 194.78 -7.95% 0.49%
May 2008 193.88 -7.90% -0.05%
144 stu
cool
didn’t have that in my chefery knowledge
thanks
oops, I reversed the integers.
Last column should read like this
-0.98%
-0.85%
-0.49%
0.05%
jamil Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 11:36 am
126 stu: “The 401k fleecing through hidden fees will continue for that is the way the system works.
My advice to most is to change jobs and roll your 401K into and IRA where you can choose among virtually any investment vehicle.”
If people can see (in a clear format) how much they are paying for their 401k funds, maybe more of them will demand better 401k provider from their employer.
j/s: If you are receiving a vested company match from your employer, then why complain?
If you are using a company savings plan as a parking place for your retirement funds subsequent to a separation from service, then you can see why savings plans are really intended to serve employees not participants……
#1 I don’t have an issue with the fees per se, it is rather that they are hidden and in most instances almost impossible to find.
#2 You aren’t receiving anything in return for those fees, whereas you could have an external arrangement with an outside advisor that would at least be providing consultation.
#3 It is utterly self-serving for me to have this opinion, although I feel justified due to my own business practices.
stuw6 Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 11:46 am
Kettle1: Check out safflower oil. It’s holds up to heat like canola oil and has a neutral flavor. It’s also a lot healthier. My sister turned me on to it years ago and I now only use olive oil when the flavor is key and safflower for everything else except sesame for some chinese recipes. They sell it pretty cheaply at Trader Joe’s.
FYI – don’t cook with Olive Oil, only use for unheated seasoning….
What’s the seasonal impact from Jan to April? Should we see more sales and higher prices as it become warmer?
I still see a downtrend technically regardless of seasonal impact.
Month NY-Index MOM_1st_Deri MOM_2nd_Deri
January 2008 200.94 -0.74% -29%
February 2008 198.60 -1.16% 57%
March 2008 196.56 -1.03% -12%
April 2008 193.93 -1.34% 30%
Nom(138):
I’m too well compensated for Roth and my company does not offer a Roth IRA. Our 401k options are few and what funds they do offer are always yesterday’s monsters growers, lending to underperformance in the near future. I can’t wait to have options with this substantial some of money and the ability to get more Roth tax advantages.
Here are my wonderful choices:
FID GROWTH COMPANY
FID US EQ INDEX POOL
* LARGE CAP VALUE
* SPTN EXTND MKT INDEX
LKCM SM CAP EQ INST
* FID DIVERSIFIED INTL
FID PURITAN
VANG TARGET RET 2005-2050
* FID MGD INC PORT II
* FIDELITY US BD INDEX
For Clott
your favorite metaphor!
http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/photos/uncategorized/coyote_06.jpg
Grim,
Do you think the GTG will last until at least 7?
KL
ChiFi:
I agree with your opinion on 401Ks, but just because the employer is paying a match does not justify the enormous fees. You are correct about their lack of advisement.
I have question regarding these writedown’s being done by FS companies.
We do hear argument that companies have factored in all writedowns. Does this relate to home prices as of today or also factoring in future price declines?
From what I understand, reset of ARM loans (primarily Option-Arm) dont peak till 2011. If that is the case, Foreclosure additions are not going to be gone till at least 2011. Do Finance companies predict price declines that far ahead in time and do write downs? My instinct tells me no, but correct me if I am wrong. In that case, isn’t it easy to say all Bottom calls are irrelevant till foreclosures stop increasing?
150 chi:
“j/s: If you are receiving a vested company match from your employer, then why complain?”
Hmm. Employer match has nothing to do with the 401k provider (and its fees).
Anyway, current 401k system which is tied to one employer-selected provider makes no sense. The money belongs to the employee who should have the right to transfer it to other provider. If this added bureaucracy (maintaining contribution info at several financial institutions) is a problem for the employers, then at least it should be allowed to transfer it to IRA once a year or so.
I can’t make the GTG unfortunately, but would suggest you drunks finish the evening at the Big M! Could you imagine this analytical crowd all obsessing over a racing form? I’d pay to see that.
chifi 151
dont cook with olive oil? why not?
ChiFi/Mets fans-
I just mentioned to a co-worker I thought this might happen.
NY Mets have been in contact with Red Sox about Manny Ramirez
http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2008/07/ny_mets_have_been_in_contact_w.html
You’re all a bunch of wimps. I fry my french fries in SAE 40 weight motor oil.
153: stu
“my company does not offer a Roth IRA.”
Do you mean “Roth 401k”? Employers do not offer Roth IRA.
Your fund selection as such does not give enough information to judge it (e.g. if the ER and management fee is 2% vs. 0.3% is makes a huge difference). Lack of international (outside TR) is pretty much the only important asset class, but even the basic ERs is probably quite high.
only important _missing_ asset class..
Nicholas, When you compare the mom change in yoy prices, you are already adjusting for seasonality.
Example, if we compare may 08 from may 07, then we can compare that change to the change from april 08 to april 07. By doing this, we are not comparing april prices to may prices.
“You’re all a bunch of wimps. I fry my french fries in SAE 40 weight motor oil.”
Gary, is that your John impersonation entry?
No harm meant to Nicholas, but it slayed his entry.
“Do you think the GTG will last until at least 7?”
KL,
Do you mean passed out/tossed from the bar by 7:00PM?
Yes Jamil,
My bad. Meant to say Roth 401K.
KL
Yes I’m sure we’ll still be there at 7.
ChiFi
I respectfully disagree with your statement about not cooking with olive oil. It is probably the healthiest oil you can cook with, if you have to cook with oil at all.
stu,
Sure, I’ll go with that! :)
The Fed is extending the length of its Term Securities Lending Facility program through Jan. 30 and is introducing longer terms to maturity for its Term Auction Facility. The facilities were implemented to improve liquidity during the recent credit market turmoil. The Fed’s latest move was spurred by “continued fragile” markets.
Move along please. Nothing to see here.
Hanky Panky
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/goldman-GS-Fed-Paulson-treasury-recession/index/a/18271
Olive oil:
http://www.oliveoilsource.com/cooking_olive_oil.htm
But even grapeseed and canola oils are good.
For stir frying use an oil with a high smoke point:
SORTED BY TEMP:
200’s
225 F: Canola Oil, Unrefined
: Flaxseed Oil, Unrefined
: Safflower Oil, Unrefined
: Sunflower Oil, Unrefined
300’s
320 F: Corn Oil, Unrefined
: High-Oleic Sunflower Oil,
Unrefined
: Olive Oil, Unrefined
: Peanut Oil, Unrefined
: Safflower Oil, Semi-Refined
: Soy Oil, Unrefined
: Walnut Oil, Unrefined
325 F: Shortening, Emulsified
Vegetable†
330 F: Hemp Seed Oil¥¥
350 F: Butter (Good Eats)
: Canola Oil, Semi-Refined
: Coconut Oil†
: Sesame Oil, Unrefined
: Soy Oil, Semi-Refined
356-370 F: Vegetable Shortening
361-401 F: Lard
375 F: Olive Oil (Good Eats)
389 F: Macadamia Nut Oil††
400’s
400 F: Canola Oil, Refined
: Walnut Oil, Semi-Refined
406 F: Olive Oil, Extra Virgin*
410 F: Corn Oil (Good Eats)
: Sesame Oil**
420 F: Cottonseed Oil†
: Grapeseed Oil¥
: Olive Oil, Virgin**
430 F: Almond Oil***
: Hazelnut Oil***
435 F: Canola Oil (Good Eats)
438 F: Olive Oil*
: Rapeseed Oil***
440 F: Peanut Oil†
: Sunflower Oil†
450 F: Corn Oil, Refined
: High-Oleic Sunflower Oil,
Refined
: Peanut Oil, Refined
(Good Eats)
: Safflower Oil, Ref.
(Good Eats)
: Sesame Oil, Semi-Refined
: Soy Oil, Refined
: Sunflower Oil, Semi-Refined
460 F: Olive Pomace Oil**
468 F: Olive Oil, Extra Light*
485 F: Grapeseed Oil**
495 F: Soy Bean Oil†
500’s
510 F: Safflower Oil†
520 F: Avocado Oil, Refined
Sorry for the excessive bandwidth.
sl
nj Bear and BC bob…I have a phone call into my ex-pal over there…I used to work in an IT related area at Merrill until 2001…last round this spring ’08 was bad so they said, no word on how things are now.
I love it, company is having first ever earnings call and it is a live dial in number where any of us bozos can dial in. I am going to ask some questions like are you starting a NJ Bear RE ETF Fund, just for fun.
WisdomTree Schedules Q2 2008 Earnings Conference Call
Company to hold first earnings call on July 31, 2008 at 4:30 p.m.
NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–July 24, 2008 WisdomTree (Pink Sheets: WSDT), an industry leading index developer and ETF sponsor, will host its first corporate earnings conference call for the second quarter, ending June 30 2008. The company will release its financial results in a news release after the market closes on Thursday, July 31, 2008.
WisdomTree will host a conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET on Thursday July 31, 2008. Jonathan Steinberg, CEO, Bruce Lavine, President & COO and Amit Muni, CFO, will discuss WisdomTree’s results, and review operational highlights and other business developments. Following formal remarks, management will be available to answer questions.
The Company invites you to participate on the call. The call, as well as management’s presentation, will be accessible as a live audio webcast through WisdomTree’s newly launched Investor Relations section at http://www.wisdomtree.com/ir.
Those wishing to listen to the live conference via telephone should dial-in at least 10 minutes before the call begins at the following telephone numbers:
Live Dial-in Information:
United States: (888) 562-3356
International: (973) 582-2700
Passcode: 55178789
Grim.. rhyming.. et al
Can someone give me status on MLS 2506909 and MLS 2813459..Has either of them closed?
Are there estimated closing dates?
Thanks
Italian cooking is based on olive oil. Pretty much every meal starts with it.
“When you compare the mom change in yoy prices, you are already adjusting for seasonality.”
Good point, but let me counter by bringing up something that might not be readily apparent in your seasonal data. This year Easter was held on March 23 of this year instead of on April 8th like last year moving a big selling weekend.
A pick up in April data vs March data is then expected this year.
I don’t know how that extends to May data though other then last year it was the first large drop (1.5%) and my have skewed this years data because of it.
Hope that helps…
John impersonations are started by putting “- John” after your name.
I’m not sure if random quipps are considered impersonations, there could be a jonh-esque category though.
Still…searching…for…the…rulebook…it…is…bound…to…be…here….somewhere.
lostinny Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
ChiFi
I respectfully disagree with your statement about not cooking with olive oil.
I guess I stand corrected….
stuw6 Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
ChiFi: I agree with your opinion on 401Ks, but just because the employer is paying a match does not justify the enormous fees.
stuw6: Why not? The only drawback is that the benefit received is simply not as pronounced as it seems on the face.
When do we hear news about where prime rates will be for the next month?
Do you think that the Europeans raising rates will have any bearing on if we will push ours higher
[153] Stu,
There is a provision in the tax law that allows trad IRAs to be converted to Roths in either 2009 or 2010 (can’t remember which) regardless of income. So I have been padding my trad IRA with nondeductible payments so I can convert them to Roths without much of a tax hit.
Problem is, I did roll over some 401(k) $$ to an IRA decades ago, and the no cherry-picking rule would force me to convert some or all of that as well (rule is, if you convert 50% of your iras, it has to be 50% of each, not the one you back-end loaded). Don’t know if I can argue that this retains its 401(k) character, and thus cannot be converted. If I have to convert it because I convert the padded IRAs, I take a huge gain, right in the teeth of an Obama tax hike.
Would just as soon avoid that.
So my point to Jamil is, if you are going to do this strategy, consider whether you want those funds in an IRA at the time.
Conversely, if we aren’t talking a ton of money, and gains are minimal, it may be worth doing anyway.
BBC article mentions a woman in CA bought a 500,000 apartment that is now worth 200,000 so she is just going to walk away, even though she has a salary that supports the mortgage payment: reason, she needs to save for retirement:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7529277.stm
Shoot. When I said Safflower, I meant grapeseed. I am so senile!
The Sun (Baltimore Newspaper)
Rescue is quirk of timing
…
Peterson is waiting for the eviciont notice that will force her out of the 545,000 house she bought in Columbia, MD two years ago.
The 45-year-old single mother of three and home day care operator couldn’t keep up with her mortgage payments, based on adjustable interest rates of 8.25 and 11.25%
….
More then 13,000 Maryland homeowners were in forclosure at the end of last year, a 150 percent increase from the previous year. The biggest annual increase since numbers were first tracked in 1979.
….
“We’ve seen a shift in the clients that are comming to us for assistance”, said Anne Balcer Norton, director of foreclosure prevention for St. Ambrose Housing Aid Center in Baltimore. “Foreclosure was always a Baltimore city-specific issue. The demographic has changed. It’s widespread and hitting all income and socioeconomic backgrounds”
#183 house hunter
“I thought ‘this is crazy’,” Ms Trainer says. “It just does not make financial sense.”
Too bad she wasn’t thinking like that 2 years ago when she bought it.
I wonder if the number of people walking away from houses they can afford but have negative equity will cause some law changes. Making the amount the bank writes off as taxable income or keeping the home owners responsible for their debts?
All this 401k talk made me curious to see my YTD return:
“Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2008 to 07/29/2008 is -12.1% ”
Ugly.
vodka (160)-
I think that the point was not to heat extra-virgin olive oil. It has a very low smoke point, and the application of heat from a pan kills the aroma and turns it bitter.
The grade of olive oil to be used for frying/sauteing is “pure”.
Yahoo just picked up on the decreasing rate of declines in an article entitled:
Never Mind the Optimists, It’s Ugly Out There
http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/080730/10431047.html
“All 20 major metropolitan areas reported declines. The index of housing prices has now fallen every month since August 2006. Nine of the 20 cities reported record declines. In a truly laugh-out-loud moment, one observer said the fact that seven cities fell at a slower pace was a reason for optimism. OK, Mr. and Mrs. Homeowner, you are still losing money, just not as fast as before. Go ahead and spend, it’s all OK now.”
bairen (186)-
Our gubmint, in its infinite wisdom, removed the tax consequences on mortgage deficiencies in December, 2007.
My yearly rate of return is right around 0%. I went 80% bonds last August and left a little international and some large cap value live.
Wish I had been prescient enough to adjust my allocations. I’m just happy that I’ve been buying in at a cheaper price point over the past few months.
It’s 10W 30 grade for my breaded veal cutlets or nothing.
Did you guys take a look at this Tanta post over at CR??
Fraud in the 2008 Mortgage Vintage
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/07/fraud-in-2008-mortgage-vintage.html
Thus when you thoughts things will change, they remain the same. Incredible story.
“I don’t see (subprime mortgage market troubles) imposing a serious problem. I think it’s going to be largely contained,”
Pualson, Reuters, 4/20/07
“We have had a significant housing correction in the U.S.,” Paulson added. “You can’t have a correction like that without causing some dislocations. It’s too early to tell whether it’s bottomed. I believe it has.”
Yahoo News, 3/13/07
“Given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited,” Bernanke said.
Forbes, 5/17/07
“We see a lot of people on the Street who are scared,” Mr. Prince, 57, said during an interview Wednesday in his wood-paneled office at Citigroup’s Park Avenue headquarters. “We are not scared. We are not panicked. We are not rattled. Our team has been through this before.”
NY Times, 8/3/07
“We have more capital than we need, so we can say to the market that we don’t need more injections. We can confirm that we have tackled the problem.”
John Thain, El Pais, 3/16/08
“If you look at the subprime problem in the US, you would say we’re in the eighth inning or maybe the top of the ninth,”
John Mack, NY Post, 4/9/08
“I think the system basically is sound, I truly do,” Bush said. “And I understand there’s a lot of nervousness. . . . But the economy is growing, productivity is high, trade is up, people are working. It’s not as good as we’d like, but . . . to the extent that we find weakness, we’ll move.”
Bush, Washington Post, 7/16/08
A few steps back;
December 5, 1929
“The Government’s business is in sound condition.”
– Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury
December 28, 1929
“Maintenance of a general high level of business in the United States during December was reviewed today by Robert P. Lamont, Secretary of Commerce, as an indication that American industry had reached a point where a break in New York stock prices does not necessarily mean a national depression.”
– Associated Press dispatch.
January 13, 1930
“Reports to the Department of Commerce indicate that business is in a satisfactory condition, Secretary Lamont said today.”
– News item.
May 1, 1930
“While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There is one certainty of the future of a people of the resources, intelligence and character of the people of the United States – that is, prosperity.”
– President Hoover
June 29, 1930
“The worst is over without a doubt.”
– James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.
June 9, 1931
“The depression has ended.”
– Dr. Julius Klein, Assistant Secretary of Commerce.
$1.6 trillion: new estimate on writedowns
Those that assume the misery is coming to an end are wrong. When it comes to writedowns, losses and raising fresh capital, the crisis has only just begun for banks. Losses are expected to reach $1.6 trillion, only a fraction of which have been uncovered. This is the conclusion of a confidential study made available to Sonntagszeitung.
“If everything they say is true,” says Charles Wyplosz, a professor at the University of Geneva, ” a number of financial institutions will face bankruptcy.” The research paper is ‘hot ‘in professional circles not only because of its content, but also because of the originator; Bridgewater Associates is the second-largest hedge fund in the world. The people behind it are brilliant, first among them Ray Dalio, who founded the company more than thirty years ago.
Why? That’s because lending is their core business, and they hold the majority of the assets. But, it is also because a large part of the losses are in the form of traditional bank loans, and, unlike securitized mortgages, these are not traded. So, their value has not been corrected on the balance sheet. “If we assess [the validity of] current market prices, we have a long way to go, because these institutions have only acknowledged one-sixth of their expected losses resulting from the credit crisis,” writes Bridgewater. Five-sixths comes to nearly $500 billion.
#190 clot,
And they opened the floodgates for people who are upside down yet can afford to pay their mortgage, thus increasing the severity of the bust.
My “John” entry……….Yesterday I finished the back nine of a well known club on Long Island. The kinda place where men still order their scotch on the rocks and the women keep to themselves on the mahjong tables. Long story short. My buddy made a mint selling dry goods and put all his capital into offshore accounts. He bought an island off the coast of Belize, put an online gaming site together and now trades Czech chicks to rich old oil men from Russia. Life is good. Real Good.
Grim, 183 in mod. I goofed and use the “O” word, which always triggers moderation.
Hey you gotta drop a celeb name or two in there, make it illegal money and get those hot ladies off their mahjong tables and onto my slong on top of a table!
Essex Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
My “John” entry……….Yesterday I finished the back nine of a well known club on Long Island. The kinda place where men still order their scotch on the rocks and the women keep to themselves on the mahjong tables. Long story short. My buddy made a mint selling dry goods and put all his capital into offshore accounts. He bought an island off the coast of Belize, put an online gaming site together and now trades Czech chicks to rich old oil men from Russia. Life is good. Real Good.
#191 Stu
Same here. I am down 0.33% for the last year. The depressing part is the contributions every paycheck are just keeping the fund level.
I also need to work out an exit point for the bonds. When interest rates start to go up, the real damage will start.
Sybarite101 X Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
All this 401k talk made me curious to see my YTD return:
“Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2008 to 07/29/2008 is -12.1% ”
Ugly.
sybs: If you are 100% equity then the return is fairly typical if not slightly outperforming. Albeit, if you have been investing contributions systematically, then it skews the result in your favor to some extent.
John Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
slong
sp?
I can’t say my funds are taking a terrible beating but thats only because I can only see the first quarter. But it was enough to make me change to a mostly fixed rate. Unfortunately, the changes won’t go through til October. I wonder how much I’ll lose by then.
so me and my buddy decided not to play football for my hs team because the school was so rough, football was for the wusses. i knew this one guy on the team, ended up in the NFL but one of my pals gouged out his eye with a spork from KFC. Anyway, I had this VW Thing car that looked like something Fred Flinstone would drive but it handled real good and I could look down between my legs and there was a hole and you could see the pavement. Also the hole was pretty convenient if you were driving and needed a little pressure release on the personal hose, if you get my drift.
so there was this strip bar where you could drink dollar pitchers in the afternoon, watch the girls…girls, hell, they were more like bags of blood squirming around like eels in crankcase oil. well, one of these electric eels decided to get cozy with her date du jour in the backseat of my Thing. when i got back to the car, me and my pal blew chunks everywhere cause it was covered in dafunk. Thought we were gonna need gasmasks to get it out to Coney Island where we paid a russian mobster 20 bucks to push it into the bay.
nice job clot! grammar/spelling wasn’t as bad as it should be though; A-
#104 Shore Guy – I’m looking at houses in those areas and have to agree that there seems to be some sanity returning but still some whacky prices and weird behavior. One RE agent told me the seller “had already signed an offer” but would consider a higher one from me – I’m new at this but this does sound like dishonesty to me.
Agree that the difference in price/value seems to be enormous! But I would like to buy soon – was hoping August would serve as a wake up call – why pay the whole winter for a place that is losing value?
Chi (203)-
If John says slong, slong it is.
PGC (201) says: “I also need to work out an exit point for the bonds.”
I hear ya loud an clear. Looking on the bright side. Anytime between now and Dow 14,000 puts you ahead of about 95% of the 401k holding population. I’m planning on easing my way back in at Dow 10,000 or 12,500. Whichever comes first. Of course the lower number could change based on changes in the market environment.
Nice job Clot!
How long is this contest for? Must it be in writing or can it be spoken as well? Like maybe at the gtg.
I probably will miss the gtg’s and thus miss an opportunity to up the ante.
I will have to think of some more gooshy gooshy for you guys.
Btw my try at a John impersonation was a true story told by someone who reminds me of John and compressed into one paragraph. I have others that might be more on the money.
I’m going to post my John impersonation from home.
RealMoney by TheStreet.com:
Never Mind the Optimists, It’s Ugly Out There
http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/080730/10431047.html
“Once again on Tuesday, I sat watching with some amusement the rally on Wall Street. The chief reason cited for the rally was that the Conference Board measurement of consumer confidence rose for the month. The index did rise slightly, halting a six-month decline and going up to 51.9 from 51, the first time the index did not decline since December. Is this a cause for a rally and to get long the stock market? Not really.”
176. Housing Purgatory Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Grim.. rhyming.. et al
Can someone give me status on MLS 2506909 and MLS 2813459..Has either of them closed?
Are there estimated closing dates?
Thanks
MLS 2506909
UCD: 7/1/2008
ANT CD: 8/21/2008
The other MLS number didn’t come up.
I;m in singapore on business, trying to make a buck. sitting at the bar having a cold one while the mama-son chats me up. my cell rings and its the wife, the old bag is leaving, she cant take the travel anymore. i throw back my drink nd tap the bar tender for another double. well the last thing i remember is going in for double #4 while i tell the mama-son what my old bag just did. I wake up the next morning in my executive suite with 3 little asain cream puffs drapped over me and an empty bottle of Johnny. I figured hll, at least i got mine and then passed back out.
OT,
if someone wants to read a scary story:
some new estimates on oil and energy from a group out of the netherlands. the group has a pretty good reputation for integrity. outlook is a little less the rosy
http://www.clingendael.nl/publications/2008/20080700_ciep_energy_jesse.pdf
can anyone recommend reading material on the futures markets?
So the other day I have to interview this kid from Harverd, wants me to take him to lunch at Del Fresco and order him some single malt, these kids are too fancy by half. I don’t need a girlfriend I need an employe. if I was going to pay to get me a girl it would cost me a lot less than lunch at Del Friscos and her best resume job would be more impresive than building mud huts in Zimbobwe for the Peace Core. Like I said too fancy by half. When I was in his shoes I had a recruiting lunch at O’Connors. Used to be Borders was right across the street Broadway and 110, they had those 25 cent beer nights (yeah, it was wattered down and in styraphone cups but what do you want for 25 cents) and one time me and my buddy were in there when this skinny guy says to my buddy, hey, you pinched my girlfriend’s ass. My buddy says no, I didn’t pinch your girlfriend’s ass. So the guy says it again up in my buddy’s face, and my buddy says “I’ve taken $hits that were better looking than your girlfriend, why would I even pinch her ass.” Then the guy shoves my buddy into a catus. he was picking cactus prickers out his a$$ for a week. Anyway I don’t hire from Harvard cause those kids are too fancy and don’t know how to work hard like the kids I grew up with.
Hey – you kids get off my lawn!
btw when I was in Tokyo was kinda depressed as those rub&tug room service girls give you the rub without the tug. anyhow in two weeks hooking up with a gf who promised bf she hits 40 wants to have a PDA in a MBR and make sure a few jars are dropped at the bar on the way in and the way out. This may involve some jaeger and jello to get her motor out of second gear but once you swallow a few shots of jello it becomes easier to swallow some hot tapoica and enjoy the free pearl necklace.
NJl$rd,
The MoM numbers are generally considered meaningless because they are not seasonally adjusted. Most people prefer to look at the YoY. Both the YoY and MoM are jagged, not a smooth curve. A change in one period is meaningless. Have a look at some of the NY Metro Case-Shiller Charts I made.
222
john – that wasn’t a very good impression of john.
watch quontom leap
can anyone recommend reading material on the futures markets?
nice ones njp and kettle!
john 225,
that was a great show, right up their with McGyver!
There was a guy at my college who was a dead ringer for the star of Quantum Leap, whom everyone naturally referred to as “Quantum Leap Guy.”
ahahhah OMG keep them coming!
Boss is pissed off today, cause he is tire of dealing the pm chick. My feet is dragged in into the hole looking through her beautiful mouth & touge. All the gunt charts striped me out of blue and I have to bs her to get my boss off the hook. Her daughter would be a hotter hooker I telling u bozos, or u don’t believe me I’ll bet a scotch to put her nud$ pictures online for a buck or two.
218 kettle
Funny – about a month ago, Mrs. Patient said she thought there was ~$110/barrel floor under oil as well.
That paper should come with scotch, though.
Since the Case-Shiller numbers came back. How about a look at a 2005 article with Robert Shiller “<a href=”http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/13/real_estate/realestate_shiller1_0502/index.htm”Irrational Exuberance“. I’m sure people thought he was nuts then.
“A few days before Alan Greenspan famously used the phrase “irrational exuberance” in a December 1996 speech, Shiller had been at lunch with the Fed chairman, arguing that the stock market was irrational and suggesting that Greenspan might have something to say about how overvalued it had become.
Shiller’s first tome focused exclusively on the stock market. A substantially revised edition of “Irrational Exuberance”, to be published in April, includes a new chapter on what Shiller believes is the bubble in residential real estate.
The housing-price boom that is taking place in big metropolitan areas in the United States and around the world, he maintains, has no basis in economic fundamentals or precedent in real estate history. “
Gentleman,
We have a 1.6 trillion dollar crisis and you guys are enjoying yourselves with John impersonations. Come on.
Hey who want’s to impersonate me. you know spelling and all. I’m feeling a little left out here.
213 St. Nick
“Btw my try at a John impersonation was a true story told by someone who reminds me of John and compressed into one paragraph”
Funny – same here, only the story was first person (the bystander, not the guy in the cactus, that is).
anybody else ever go to the Border? Used to be on ~100th and B’Way in the late ’80s, and they really did have 50 cent beer nights.
John #176-
I was wondering where Mr. Bartiromo and son of Mr. GreenMail landed after he closed his publishing business. Didn’t realize WisdomTree was his thing.
178:
If TV and bad stand-up comedy have taught me anything, it’s this: In Italy every meal starts with some guy moving his hands a lot while talking like Chico Marx…
219:
H.G. Wells’ The Time Machine would be a good start…
sorry patient (231),
here you go
http://tinyurl.com/5vfx8v
OT
Gentleman Jack is not a gentleman.
thanks, kettle.
Got gold?
http://tinyurl.com/5s2gs5
233 make
heh – I’d say the same, but since I speak almost entirely in catch-phrases, it would be too easy.
njpatient- Ha,ha. Love it!
njpatient,
“Unless he’s telling us that we’re going to be balancing the federal budget instead of borrowing half a trillion dollars, then I think the biggest era of buy now pay later ever will continue humming along quite nicely, thank you very much.”
He was talking about NY state. I can see how you might have been confused because you might not be familiar with the way I spelled the governor’s name with an “aulson” instead of a “aterson”. I guess it’s not as common a practice as I thought so from now on I’ll try and stick to the more conventional spelling :)
kettle,
Futures books;
Try Kevin Kerr, Jack Schwager.
If you are into euordollars [not the currency], I’m partial to this;
http://www.amazon.com/Eurodollar-Futures-Options-Controlling-Institutional/dp/1557381593/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1217447132&sr=1-2
Disclaimer: My college roomate is one of the authors.
Tom
” you might not be familiar with the way I spelled the governor’s name with an “aulson” instead of a “aterson”. ”
That made my day – hee!
Nick (213)-
“my try at a John impersonation was a true story told by someone who reminds me of John and compressed into one paragraph.”
Everybody knows somebody like John. It’s a universal personality type.
There are probably Nepalese Buddhist Johns.
HEHEHE (172) Excellent article “The sooner we’re allowed to go through it, the quicker we’ll all get through it.”
Barien (188) Re: Walking away when you could pay – There was once a time when one’s moral code would never allow such behavior.
(197) BC Bob – How much longer will Americans stand for half truths and out and out lies before they react? If we knew who was telling the truth -If they would just take the write downs and we could see who was left standing – We’d put our money there and go forward. But at this rate, no one knows what to do. It’s like “limbo land.”
(207) Clot -Phenomenal!
“One of my pals gouged out his eye with a spork from KFC”..and the whole “hole” in the VW Thing.. thing…
You guys are cracking me up!
217, 220-
Impressive. I think the battle has been engaged.
I thought these guys are Financial Professionals?
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2008/07/28/20080728biz-mortgagejobs0729-ON.html
Terez Sanguine, who runs Staffing Consultants Inc., said she also has trouble placing some from the mortgage industry.
“A lot of people coming out of certain industries really aren’t as skilled as they believe they are,” Sanguine said. “They don’t have that skill set to support that salary they’ve been accustomed to.”
She said many people got into mortgage with high salaries because the industry needed people to keep up with the workloads during the boom
“I thought these guys are Financial Professionals?”
make,
I thought the Knicks were an NBA basketball team?
Stk was up 7% today, wondering what they are going to say tommorrow. Those characters have to cash out, they need to move that dog from $2 bucks a share to above $5 bucks a share to put themselves in the money, wondering how they are going to do it and what tales they are going to spin on that call tommorrow.
BklynHawk Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
John #176-
I was wondering where Mr. Bartiromo and son of Mr. GreenMail landed after he closed his publishing business. Didn’t realize WisdomTree was his thing.
BC (252)-
“I thought the Knicks were an NBA basketball team?”
Hey…at least they found a way to dump Balkman.
Now if they can find somebody to kneecap Marbury…
The Taxpayer, Mars and Earth.
The Tax PayerThe taxpayer passionately fell in love with Mars and left Earth riding a bicycle loaded with aspirin tablets. But Earth followed him, shouting his name. She implored him to come back. But he had made up his mind to leave Earth for good
http://www.lycee-charlemagne.org/perso/kosmo02/tax.html
#233 make
John (253)-
I suggest they hand over the call to the Falafel Guy (aka Jeremy Siegel).
Johnny Cakes…
All very good stories. They need more illegal substances and bodily fluids.
And we all need to work on our mis-spellings. It’s a damn small mind that can only think of one way to spell a word.
shareholders should keep their pants around their ankles during the call in case they get screwed. I am dialing in as I like free entertainment and want to see if the stock pops or drops the next day. Too bad their are no options on that dog or I would go both ways out of the money and cash out the day after.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
May 2008 (published July 29)
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html
#143 Veto Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 11:51 am
NJl$rd
I wonder where your data is coming from?
I’m not sure if kettle and njpatient have raised or lowered the bar in the John contest. :)
Will be tough to top.
realtors crack me up, I saw a new listing that looked nice and called up for more info. I got a lot of good info from realtor and she asked me if I wanted to see the house, I said sure thing, I then said I am busy in August and September but I should be around in October if she wants to make an appointment for me to see the house, then she stopped talking to me. What’s up with that? She is lucky I said October 2008 next time I will tell the realtor Jan 2010.
njpatient Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
anybody else ever go to the Border? Used to be on ~100th and B’Way in the late ’80s, and they really did have 50 cent beer nights.
njp: I have a distinct memory of La Groceria (bodega) on 98th between Park and Madison. Essentially, it was Spanish Harlem in 1983-84, except Mt. Sinai hospital was a few blocks away. It was 4 blocks from my high school. But when you crossed 96th Street, it was a different world east of Madison. 96th was a safety zone until about 2 or 3 Avenue….this was before they built the DORMandy buildings for all the post-college kids to sleep 4 in a 1BR to afford the rent. How? Two bunk beds silly ;)
The drinking age was based on whether or not you were tall enough to reach the counter with money…..
when we were openers for bruce my band and me the NJva JJs smacked to the hilt were playin a gig at seaside park back in the day when they had one of those mirrored covered balls suspended from the ceeling when this smokin hot chick and her man started doin it write their in front of the stage like the best porn youve even sene. I threw down my guitar who style and joined in then and there..come come come everyone.
Grim – my submission for the “John write-a-like” contest is awaiting moderation….
I figure out why – it is only 2 sentences long…
249 cindy
“There was once a time when one’s moral code would never allow such behavior. ”
I’m going to obliquely disagree here, and reiterate a point I’ve made a couple of times back in the day, but, although I agree that there may have been a moral code that prevented that sort of behavior upon a time, I don’t think it’s disappearance is necessarily a bad thing.
Banks and individual borrowers enter into loan contracts.
They agree, in those contracts, that they have certain rights and obligations.
The banks agreed to contracts that provided that the only loan collateral was the house.
If the banks wanted recourse to the individuals assets, they could have negotiated this right. They did not. (Speaking here of states where mortgages are not stautorially recourse to the borrower, of course).
Those people who walk away are in full compliance with the terms of the contract they entered into, and the banks get the collateral that they bargained for.
I do not believe that there is a “moral” obligation for individual borrowers to give banks something greater than the banks bargained for. If anything, I think that we’d all be better off if there were greater, not lesser, consequences to the banks for what were seriously irresponsible behaviors during the past 7 years or so.
Banks enter into contracts that screw individuals on a regular basis (have you looked at your credit card contract lately?) and we don’t argue that the banks have a “moral” obligation to make those people whole for their bargained-for losses.
The banks are (or should be) fully capable of looking out for themselves. They can afford some pretty good lawyers.
chi
I know that place
My buddy lived on 96th and 3rd.
Nice boys didn’t go north of 96th in those days.
upper east on 89th and 3rd used to crash on friends couch all the time in the late 80s and early 90s. Every time we went out we hung a right and went south. No reason to hang a left and go downtown. I swear the five story walk up with no air was a living hell in the summer, apt was cut up to fit three guys and with no cross air it was nasty and with the windows open the screaming drunks on third kept you up. My 200 sq ft place on 26 and lex was heaven next to that place as I had a back of the building apt and a 199 ac. But I had trannies four to a corner out front in fact once Brad Pitt and Harrison Ford made some god awful movie on my block and they closed the street for the night to everyone. Well I am trying to get out the door of my apt and that punk Brad Pitt ( who is short and skinny in person) was leaning against the front door, I go to push it open and he yea yea I know you know who I am and I tell him yea you are the punk blocking my front door so I can’t get to work. Their also was the neighborhood irish bar on 24th and third they filmed a scened in as they were looking for a disgusting place and it was disgusting. I loved NYC back them. Well except for the smell of tranny pee and leaky trojans.
261 john
lol
(265) njpatient
“If the banks wanted recourse to the individual’s assets, they could have negotiated the right.”
This is true – you are absolutely correct nj. That is the letter of the law – I was appealing to the “spirit” of the law.
257 fiddy
“It’s a damn small mind that can only think of one way to spell a word.”
Post of the day.
Cindy
“I was appealing to the “spirit” of the law.”
I appreciate that, but that’s an appeal that you’ll lose in every court in the land.
“the smell of tranny pee and leaky trojans”
*falls off the chair*
Put another way:
The bank and the borrower agree that the borrower will borrow money backed by a house, and if they don’t pay it back, the bank can take the house.
I simply don’t understand why it’s not moral to live up to a written agreement.
(271) nj – I never would have ended up in court because I would have paid the debt I signed on for. That’s all I meant.
Yanks acquire Irod.
John-speak attempt 2…..
Downtown NYC, back in the day….back when you could pick up a loft for a case of beer and a BJ from an NYU grad student. Of course I’m laying low after an all night binge with Johnny Ramone. The guy drinks like a fish and tells me his manager just took him for a few grand — so what do we do….we get into my old lincoln, drive to Queens and find the bastard. Basically take him out in an old trawler, put him on a sandbar when the tide was out and make him walk back home. Better believe he thought twice about taking money again.
barien and clot…I believe that all the gubmint talk about the “help” for folks foreclosing is not for those who don’t really need it, but are taking advantage of the so called perks. I wonder how they are going to investigate these cases, how many people they need to hire to perform them, and if it will work at all. Most likely not..
Oh dear.
http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2008/07/30/cadwalader-to-cut-96-lawyers/
This morning, the partnership of Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft is slated to inform 96 lawyers — a group spanning from first-year associates to counsel — that they will be laid off. 90 of the 96 cuts will come out of the real estate finance and securitization practices, said the firm’s chairman, Chris White.
for those who listein to wbai.. they are having a fund drive.
I for one think its a worthy station, compared to the corporate controlled propaganda media thats usually on the airwaves.
http://wbai.org/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1
thx
SAS
btw- wbai it alot better than wnyc or npr… hands down.
SAS
patient [277],
It’s getting outright scary. WS is getting decimated. Housing/auto’s are dead, even retail is getting hit. On the bright side, birth/death stats are up.
chifi
New Lincoln?
The system is now broken as evidenced by the TAF facility: the very definition of this is “the financial system has no more capital left and the TAF is the only way the Federal Reserve can get capital back in the system. So the Federal Reserve has taken bad debts in exchange for capital onto their balance sheet. This makes them very nervous. It’s not a far fetched thought to believe that the new SEC rules were specifically implemented to drive financial stocks up in order to allow them to raise capital through stock offerings. The capital would make it more probable that these banks are eventually able to take the bad debt back from the Fed. This serves as a warning to those who are tempted to fall for this and buy financial stocks on these secondary stock offerings.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/short-squeeze-deflation-Credit-Fed-government/index/a/18277
Market manipulation? By the federal government??? How can that be?
NJl$rd,
For some reason you were calculating with different data than S&P (see your data from 115 above also pasted below). Try to match it to the NY metro data from the S&P link you just sent and you will see they dont match. Also, here it is graphed out, you can see that the decline seems to be rounding off and the blue bars show the yoy rate of slowing declines over last 4 months. http://tinyurl.com/6jfyhw
Not saying that house prices are stabilizing, just pointing out a seemingly positive trend and questioning why media isnt all over it.
NJl$rd Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Date NY-New York Index MOM 1st Derivative MOM 2nd Derivative
January 2006 213.5
February 2006 214.47 0.45%
March 2006 214.33 -0.07% -114%
April 2006 214.97 0.30% -557%
May 2006 215.57 0.28% -7%
June 2006 215.83 0.12% -57%
July 2006 215.25 -0.27% -323%
August 2006 214.34 -0.42% 57%
September 2006 214.08 -0.12% -71%
October 2006 214.28 0.09% -177%
November 2006 214.23 -0.02% -125%
December 2006 213.79 -0.21% 780%
January 2007 212.78 -0.47% 130%
February 2007 212.52 -0.12% -74%
March 2007 212.39 -0.06% -50%
April 2007 211.61 -0.37% 500%
May 2007 210.51 -0.52% 42%
June 2007 209.49 -0.48% -7%
July 2007 208.36 -0.54% 11%
August 2007 207.15 -0.58% 8%
September 2007 206.35 -0.39% -33%
October 2007 205.55 -0.39% 0%
November 2007 204.57 -0.48% 23%
December 2007 202.44 -1.04% 118%
January 2008 200.94 -0.74% -29%
February 2008 198.60 -1.16% 57%
March 2008 196.56 -1.03% -12%
April 2008 193.93 -1.34% 30%
“I thought these guys are Financial Professionals?”
make,
I thought the Knicks were an NBA basketball team?
I don’t know BC, Clot says RE tour guides are Financial Professionals.
Are the “John” posts really “John” posts or undercover attempts at “John” posts?
Some of the John posts don’t sound like authentic John posts.
If you know what I mean …
And for my music report: Delerium is playing BB King’s 9/30. Any old Skinny Puppy or FLA fans will know Bill Leeb is a musical genius and is not to be missed.
Hey Guys,
Cramer proclaimed the bottom in the financials last night. He said that we at the start of a decade long Bull market.
Buckle up for some pain or short to hedge long.
“It’s not a far fetched thought to believe that the new SEC rules were specifically implemented to drive financial stocks up in order to allow them to raise capital through stock offerings.”
he,
Exactly. Spot on.
The list strictly applies to those eligible for access to liquidity facilities. HMMM?
The objective is to stop bleeding the fed, goose these stocks. Why should the fed waste their ammo on institutions blanketed by those evil shorts.
Grim – Can you just cancel my “in moderation” post back at 263. I’ll try again another day –
I’m off to play scrabble (don’t laugh!)
Have a great evening
So are the layoffs over? Things have been kind of quiet on that front lately.
“This is true – you are absolutely correct nj. That is the letter of the law – I was appealing to the “spirit” of the law.”
The court systems are filled with people arguing over the letter of the law. If they had to worry about the spirit of the law too the courts would be even more backed up than they are today :)
The way the primary mortgage market works, lenders need to have certain underwriting standards for their loans. These include:
1. Borrower Requirements – Does the buyer have a willingness and ability to pay? In many cases, no.
2. Property Requirements – Does the property held as collateral provide enough value to be able to settle the balance of the loan in case of default? In many cases no. The lender has a responsibility to make sure the property is appraised correctly so that the borrower isn’t paying too much.
Like I’ve pointed out previously, as early as 2001 the federal and state governments were concerned about how lenders were working with appraisers to artificially inflate house prices, especially when it came time to foreclose. The banks didn’t care if the loans went into default because they got to profit again from the foreclosure through the increase in market value as well as the mortgage fees to give the loan to another person. By that time though, the majority of debt was sold to the secondary mortgage market.
For the secondary mortgage market to be healthy, there is a need for standards and proper transparency through responsible ratings.
The same things that’s happening now is basically what happened with the Savings and Loans in the 80’s. Since the taxpayers bailed out the S&L’s to ‘save our economy from financial ruin’ I think the banks were hoping the same would happen if the bubble ever burst. Boy are they going to feel stupid when they realize that’s not going to happen because the amount of loss and stupidity is far too great! Oh wait… never mind. :)
A lot of these failed mortgages were also government backed. Shouldn’t the spirit of the law that gives this protection to lenders have made them take more care in the loans they were giving? Well the letter of the law thinks so.
cindy
“I’m off to play scrabble (don’t laugh!)”
Have fun!
You can teach me better manners next time. :)
Before I go Tom – I’ll explain my point the best I can. I’m running late so I won’t be able to defend my position – just take it for what it is worth.
I believe we would not have AS BIG of a problem as we do now if less people found it morally acceptable to walk away. It wasn’t always acceptable.
Because so many do find it acceptable – even though they can afford it and signed documents that said they would pay the agreed upon amount – more homes are going into foreclosure than need be.
and (293) nj – You are always a doll!
Cindy,
I don’t believe it was morally acceptable for banks to lend out other people’s money in such a reckless manner as they did in the last few years. I understand your position, I just don’t think we should be surprised by what’s happening. Like my EE and comp sci profs would say “garbage in, garbage out”.
Morality? njpatient and others are right. It is a contract, morality isn’t in the equation. Unless defined and stipulated to by both parties. :) If you have a problem with morality, don’t start with individual borrowers. They are merely doing what they learned from banks and loan officers, everyone who took their cut from issuing the mortgage w/o a care as to its re-payment because by then, it wasn’t going to be their problem.
And as an extra bonus, they (banks) will even be taken care of by the govt! What a great stocking stuffer!
cindy
“more homes are going into foreclosure ”
This doesn’t bother me either.
Pro – It lowers prices, and prices need lowering.
Pro – We don’t have to worry about the particular person in quesion “losing their home” because they were financially better off walking away.
Pro – The bank that behaved irresponsibly suffers actual consequences.
Con – ?
297 Patient
Our taxes get raised to cover banks losses?
Me and my buddy hopped in his pos cavalier to go to a party at Rutgers on Bush campus. i brought a case of old Milwake and a bottle of grain. We get there and i’m doing shotguns with the old M in da baffroom. This hot chick with buns so hard she could crack walnuts was all ova me. We go back to her place and she jams her tung in my mouth and grabs my slong. We get on the couch and after I’m dun with her she looked like a butter creme filld doenut. Da funk was unreal. Reminded me of the fishen bote I use to run in the Bearing Sea. xcept this time I didnt cach any krabs.
lost
“Our taxes get raised to cover banks losses?”
Yeah, that’s a con in multiple sense of the word.
although I would say that’s not so much a direct result of forclosure as it is of subsequent, unnecessary and failed government policy.
…sort of like saying quitting smoking was bad because it made me so irritable I kicked my dog.
Back in the 70’s….I was runnin numbers out of my loft in soho. One of my best “clients” was an unrepentent gambler who happened to be british rock royalty. One nite he offers to buy my loft (at a serious prophet to me).
As a down payment, he tells his hot chick groopie to give me 10 hunnerd dollar bills. This doll is wearing pants so tite I can count the change in her pocket, including the date and the mint mark. She pulls the benjamins from some body cavity and there all rolled up like straws. I get the picture right away and unrole the billz, snorting the white residoo for all i’m worth. Musta been some serious snow in the forcast that nite.
The next mornin i found the groopies clothes piled in the corner of the loft with a note saying, “Thanks for the mazola…you can borrow it back anytime”.
#222 straw.
While a “happy ending” in Roppongi is good for the tourists, the local expat crowd are on the Friday party express JAL 703.
Britons ‘Skipping Meals Due to Money Worries’
Many households have been hit so hard by rising food prices that they are skipping meals, a new survey reported in the Sun newspaper shows.
Barclays and children’s charity NCH released a joint survey yesterday, which found that 12 percent of people have gone hungry in this way recently – a figure which goes up to 19 percent among vulnerable low-income groups.
Rising food and energy prices have been the primary drivers behind increases to the government’s own inflation benchmark, the Consumer Price Index. This rate has risen to 3.8 percent on its most recent monthly reading: a full 1.8 percent above target.
In addition, recent research from pollsters ICM shows that families with two or three children have seen their food bills increase by 21 percent over the last 12 months.
Clare Tickell at NCH said: “There’s no doubt that everyone is feeling the pinch and that those on the lowest incomes are suffering most. But once you get behind the headlines it’s not all doom and gloom.
“NCH supports thousands of families up and down the country. Many tell us how they are feeling the pinch at the moment and that it can be a struggle to feed themselves on the tightest of budgets.”
http://tinyurl.com/5qawqn
Veto, tks for the double-checking and the graph. You’re right pointing out there is small discrepancy on the data set. I have no idea why maybe the data were adjusted automatically by S&P??
The major difference of your calculation vs. mine is yours YoY and mine MoM. And you YoY calculation (seasoning adj.) shows a de-acceleration downtrend in NY metro from April to May (0.05%). Points happily taken.
#284 Veto Says:
July 30th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
NJl$rd,
For some reason you were calculating with different data than S&P (see your data from 115 above also pasted below). Try to match it to the NY metro data from the S&P link you just sent and you will see they dont match. Also, here it is graphed out, you can see that the decline seems to be rounding off and the blue bars show the yoy rate of slowing declines over last 4 months. http://tinyurl.com/6jfyhw
Nice, fiddy
At a certain point we’ll have turned john into a latterday Hemingway (the man, not the writer, and anyway john’s a better writer).
Bairen John takes the cake in my book (so far).
305 ket
Global stagflation
Bairen
Laffen my fool ass off
kudos to clotpoll for conceiving (coming up with? is that too many innuendi? is that how john would spell “coming”?) the Write Like John contest.
Hey – where’d everybody go?
John mixes Hunter Thompson and Dashiell Hammett, with just enough Tom Robbins thrown in to pique our prurient interests.
Moody’s In A Bad Mood
Ruthie Ackerman, 07.30.08, 3:10 PM ET
The mortgage crisis that some say Moody’s helped to create is now coming back to haunt it. The ratings service saw its second-quarter profit tumble on plummeting demand for mortgage bonds and collateralized debt obligations.
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/07/30/moodys-ratings-mortgage-markets-equity-cx_ra_0730markets25.html
Who are you trying to fool, Mr. AG? why don’t your governor standing out to admit your budget deficit problem as well.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a48xtt73pBbQ&refer=home
Connecticut Sues Moody’s, S&P and Fitch Over Ratings (Update4)
By Karen Freifeld
July 30 (Bloomberg) — Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal sued Moody’s Corp., Fitch Inc. and Standard & Poor’s parent The McGraw Hill Cos. claiming they unfairly gave municipal bonds lower ratings than comparable corporate or structured debt.
Fiddy,
Like John, I’m old school. I was thinking Hemingway and Arthur Miller, but you’re more on point (though john strikes me as more sober and less counter-culture than Thompson). You don’t think Robbins is a bit too … cultured?
I think there’s a bit of Quentin Tarantino there (hear me out), in that john is sometimes hysterically funny/talented and sometimes … not.
sh+t!
Why must I never be able to discuss anything in here without getting fard?
(translate that last word from Mississippi into English).
This john challenge is fun.
What would this board be without John?
He’s like Mike Hammer meets Hugh Heffner
“There are a million stories in da nakd city. I’ve dun most of them”
I wanna be a teacher. My daughters 29yo teacher is “smokin” hot and she makes like 90K a year, lives at home walking distance from school and parties all summer.Has abs so flat you can bounce quarters to the moon off her stomach. Guess when you can hit NY Sports club, the tanning sallon and happy hour and still make it home by 6pm you better look good.
Trouble is a teacher is like a stripper they have a short shelf life. That 29yp hottie has around 2-3 years of shelf life left in the IB trophy wife world before she becomes an old spinster school marm. Which I guess is better than the old stripper “gumming” it on under the 59th street bridge.
John, that’s Hall of Fame stuff, buddy. Funny
I gotta check by basement for a Dashiel Hammet novel. If I can’t find one I’m grabbing a Mickey Spillane from the library.
Argh. I keep posting as bairen john.
Why not set up multiple crosses against the USD? It’s pretty much guaranteed that it’s the new Yen.
we’re meeting with the financial adviser tomorrow. he’s so pumped for us that he’s making a house call – and we’re about 2 hrs away.
open to any other tips/advice you’ve got … still have about 16 hours to do research …
Video on NY “harsh time”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/07302008/news/regionalnews/crisis_puts_ny_in_sell_hell_122211.htm
Someone explain to me why people who are working, and living somewhat comfortably, are allowed to collect social security while they’re still working? This is the kind of thing that will dry social security up long before I’m dried up enough to collect it.
This is my old man’s situation. In a weird twist, he’s collecting MORE SS $ now than he will when he retires because he’s going to be getting a pension.
If that makes no sense, chalk it up to the government. But financially, it makes sense for him to stay when he can get in to work early, leave early, and work 4-day weeks. He’s built up so much annual leave, that he can take off a day whenever he wants.
Could someone give me an address and listing info (DOM/OLP)for MLS: 2521855.
Thanks in advance.
i hate seeing articles like this:
“CRISIS PUTS NY IN ‘SELL’ HELL
GOV EYES BRIDGE, ROAD PRIVATIZING”
http://tinyurl.com/6k853g
SAS
all those people who are going to depend on state pensions… you better pucker up when you see and hear article like the one above.
review what happened in Argentina.
SAS
this is why I don’t like the yanks
and A-rod is an A-hole.
“Kucinich Investigates Accuracy of Valuations for the New Yankee Stadium Made to Federal Agencies and Investors”
http://tinyurl.com/5rzmoq
SAS
and if I ever want a meatball sandwhich…
just have a yankees pitcher throw you one.
ha ha
SAS
NJ patient
global stagflation, more dangerous then many realize!
food energy and finance are all tied together in a global economy. As the saying goes “one for all and all for one”. The world is becoming one giant tinder box. If a country with a serious military becomes desperate enough for food then they have nothing to lose by going to war with their neighbors, as it that or have the hungry populous overthrow you.
I have tossed up a number of headlines from major newspaper over the last 2 – 3 months. While the US news doesnt touch on most of this international news sources are. We are seeing a global train wreck in slow motion.
Note that pakistan may be dangerously close to becoming unstable as they have serious food issues at the moment and multiple factions fighting for control. at the same time the US is pumping money into the country and trying to squeeze them to follow our policy “wants”. Oh and they have nukes and are in a semi cold conflict with India.
UK:
-Britons ‘Skipping Meals Due to Money Worries’
US:
-US Debt climbs to $161,000 per capita
-Surplus U.S. food supplies dry up
Carribean:
-Haiti’s government falls after food riots
Africa:
-Food and energy price protest in South Africa
India:
-Is India facing a food crisis?
europe:
-Britain: World Food Crisis a ‘Silent Tsunami’
-Food crisis threatens 22 countries, U.N. says.World leaders head to Rome, Italy next week to address food crisis
China:
-Global Food Crisis: The Struggle to Satisfy China and India’s Hunger
-China inflation hits new high. Food prices soar almost 20 percent.
pakistan:
-Twelve people in Punjab committed suicide in one day due to poverty
SAS
what was that movie on the Argentinian collapse?
hmm, it looks like exporting US inflation for the last 30 years may not work out exactly like we wanted.
Laughing, #324
Someone explain to me why people who are working, and living somewhat comfortably, are allowed to collect social security while they’re still working?
A change that was made during Bill Clinton’s administration. In the late 90’s, there was a labor shortage, and they wanted to encourage people to work past age 65.
Of course, Clinton also raised the ages for getting the maximum benefit. I woke up and discovered that my age 65 had become 66.
For my brother, born in 1957, it’s age 67 and some months.
I shudder to think what it is with the younger generation.
Clearly, they’re going for age 70.
But I don’t know what the age brackets are beyond born in 1957.
If i am wrong please educate me, but isnt this a stupid idea?
ALBANY – Warning of an approaching economic calamity, Gov. Paterson yesterday called an emergency session of the state Legislature – and raised the specter that New York may have to sell off roads, bridges and tunnels to close a massive budget deficit.
doesnt it make more sense to make the painful spending cuts and maintain the states assets? besides i am willing to bet that privatizing the roads and bridges will bring a fair amount of pain down the road. Roads and bridges should not generally be private ventures in my opinion.
Tom (295)
“I don’t believe it was morally acceptable for banks to lend out other people’s money in such a reckless manner as they did in the last few years.”
Agreed – whole-heartedly…
Now – Take the banks lapse in morality and greed… compound it with the now acceptable behavior of walking away from a financial obligation and you have foreclosures of a magnitude that I don’t think anyone expected. There are so many bad players in this mess and many innocent people are being hurt by the fallout.
In my humble opinion, we have a moral as well as a financial breakdown to deal with.
So you are right, my quote “There was once a time when one’s moral code would never allow such behavior” should have been more broadly stated to include mortgage companies, banks and I believe some homeowners.
“Memoria del Saqueo (Memory of the Looting, a Social Genocide)”
A film by Pino Solanas, in Spanish w/English subtitles.
The film highlights how, after the fall of Argentina’s military dictatorship in 1983, the political class, the judiciary, the labor unions and social institutions sold out to the international financial institutions and brought Argentina to the massive social rebellion of 2001.
kettle1,
review Vandana Shiva’s “The politics of food”
she does a really good job.
SAS
Vandana Shiva’s “The politics of food”
its an audio lecture and a very good one at that.
SAS
(297) nj Cons?
Well, Kettle had a good reason – world-wide strife – Lost, too – everyone’s taxes will probably be going up.
The point is everyone is now suffering. There are so many people lying and cheating ..I’m worried for our nation.
The kids I teach are watching this. How do you think they are going to act?
In the end, we are a nation of laws. There better be a HUGE investigation. How is it that Freddie and Fannie got away with taking on any of these loans given their restrictions? What’s going to happen to Thain? Are some heads gunna roll?
I used to be such an optimist – now I don’t know…
By the way – I came in second to last – NOT dead last at scrabble so that was good!
NJ –
Maolis is back on the market. Hmmmm …
http://new.gsmls.com/public/detailLst.do?mlsNum=2519720
I dont get your point …are you saying SS should be on a case-by-case basis? But won’t that encourage people to spend like mad and then quit at 65 or whatever just so they can get SS?
I’m young enough (31) that I’m not factoring SS into my future. Hence investing in the market monthly, 401k, SEP IRA and all that fun stuff.
cindy 339,
unfortunatly any investigation will e a dog and pony show. There is no easy way out of this mess. tthe global mess is not due to housing. housing was but a symptom.
(342) Kettle – No, I don’t think it is housing either…that’s a good way to put it – a symptom. But for me, personally…a sympton of a growing problem of lying, cheating, and stealing. I was probably better off with my rose-covered glasses – huh.
port washington’s great. Back inthe 90’s I go out after an interview with the hiring manager at Bear and two guys from Saint Johns. Somehow we lose those other guys and end up at a club that just lost their liquor liscense so the girls are dancin all nude. we get a case and stay tildawn. girls dykin out on the bar and I wake hours later in the lobby of the guys co-op on 51st. ruined a great pair of shoes and lost my wallet. Had to share a cab with Paul O’neil to get back to my ride downtown. still cant hold a poolstick without smiling
334 kettle: “If i am wrong please educate me, but isnt this a stupid idea?”
Yes, it is. As the article stated:
The most famous – or infamous – example: former Gov. Mario Cuomo’s sale of Attica prison to a semi-independent state agency in 1991 to raise $200 million. Many critics noted that the bond sale cost the state hundreds of millions extra over the next few years.
“One gets a little concerned when ‘selling off state assets’ and ‘budget deficits’ get mentioned in the same sentence,” said Elizabeth Lynam, a state policy expert with the Citizens Budget Commission.
“If it’s used to close a budget gap, it’s a one-shot. It’s doesn’t help you in the long run. It’s a fiscal gimmick.”
I agree with New York Times (!) that MediCaid fraud (up to $18 billion annually) should be ended (and it would solve NY budget woes immediately), but I doubt Paterson is ready to confront pro-fraud special interest groups.
The essense of the problem is the social stigma associated with foreclosure is not there anymore. If there is no skin in the game, what’s stopping a homeowner from walking away. Greed begets Greed and in this case, the investors/banks got greedy by lending money and packaging them because when there is 0% downpayment, the potential market for selling loans is huge, coupled with this obsessive thinking that house prices never go down or at best stay flat, resulted in lending go out of control. This fed into buyers buying houses and flipping them like mad and soon we found ourselves in this mess.
I am so freakin’ mad with this bailout package and using tax payers money to bailout greed. There is somewhere a single mother working 60hours a week surviving on one pay check to feed her children and part of her pay goes in bailing out Mozilla and gang.
What a waste..
Laughing
My point is that if SS was created to offer funds to people who cannot work, whether through retirement or disability, why can people collect it while they are still working full time jobs that offer them a comfortable living? Yes I understand they paid into it and they should be able to collect what is their’s. But do they have to collect it at that time when it is not necessary to make ends meet?
Interesting poll results. Nancy Pelosi has to allow the vote on this by the end of October or the ban expires and offshore drilling is possible again (ban must be re-authorized every year).
“More than two thirds of Americans say they favor increasing drilling efforts off America’s costs while only 30 percent disapprove of such action. Those numbers come the same day President Bush publicly scolded Democratic congressional leaders for not putting his proposal to expand domestic oil drilling, specifically on the outer continental shelf, to a vote.”
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/07/30/poll-most-americans-want-offshore-drilling/
Patient
Yup all our taxes will go up. I am so excited! I cannot wait. Maybe I can offer a kidney with a payment as well.
(346) Zack – In the old days….I was in banking for 12 years eons ago..You had your 20% down, 2 years on the job, pay stubs, a lot of scrutiny re collateral and then the credit report. Times sure change…
Part of the problem IS the market for selling the loans. When the banks held onto them themselves, they made darn sure they were good…in those days you had to go to a S&L for a home loan.
Cindy,
The buyers that are bailing isn’t the problem. Like I said garbage in, garbage out. It’s like putting sand, eggs and baking soda in a pan and yelling at your oven for how your cake turned out. Or to put it another way, you can’t blame a plant for growing if you were the one who planted the seed in the first place.
From news articles I’ve posted here before, the banks didn’t have a problem with foreclosures in the past. In fact, foreclosures were good for the lenders. It allowed them to sell the property at a higher price after they had the appraisers artificially inflate the price. Then they’d collect new fees in addition to the profit when selling the foreclosure. In 2001 FHA had to put up new regulations to try and stop this practice. The term “artificially inflate” was in the FHA reports and rules when describing what lenders and appraisers were doing.
The problem isn’t that there are foreclosures, the problems, from the bank’s perspective, is they can’t find enough people stupid enough to keep driving prices up any more.
Banks were throwing money at people to buy homes to keep the housing market afloat. In many cases, buyers would walk away from a closing a few grand richer having been given over 100% financing. Here in NJ, according to the Feb 2008 data from the FRBNY, over 20% of non-prime (subprime and alt-a) mortgages had a second lien given at the time of origination of the primary loan. That’s just bad business and the reason they did that was to keep people buying houses to keep driving up prices so they could keep making money on fees and from sales of mortgage backed securities.
(351) Tom – We will need to agree to disagree on this one okay?
“The buyers that are bailing isn’t the problem.”
You see, I’m not discussing housing really.
I am discussing people..bankers, buyers. You are missing the point I was trying to make about what I see as a “problem.” It is the entire mentality of greed and moral breakdown that has been exposed through the housing crisis. It has opened my eyes.
(351) Tom – Read your post over again one more time and look at it as an outsider assessing the moral fiber of a nation and tell me how it looks…
Night -Talk later
Cindy
Cindy,
My point is it does no good to blame the most recent “immoral” actors, things need to change on a wider scale. Symptoms/disease, forest/trees, i’m all out of analogies for today :)
Try rereading what I wrote with that in mind. I think you’ll see we’re not too off in our thinking. I remember you said you looked up Kaizen when I mentioned it another post. One of the examples from those principles that I’m going to paraphrase (was a while since I actually read info on it)…
There’s an assembly line worker sees a problem completing his task, lets say driving a bolt into a panel. He has the power to stop the line and all production stops. Plant is not making any money, no cars are coming off the line. So he tries to figure out why he’s having a hard time putting the bolt in. He checks the driver and finds out if he uses more torque he can get the bolt in. But that’s not the solution, just a temporary fix. The specs say it should be at a certain torque setting. So they keep asking why until they find the root of the problem. So they examine the bolts. Bolts look fine and are to spec. They check the threads in the panel. Oops. The threads aren’t to spec. The extra stress from a mismatched tread/bolt connection might cause the connection to fail. They check with the engineer and find out they can’t safely increase the torque because it would cause the part to fail in only 25k miles as opposed to the rated 50k miles. Not done yet. Go find out why the die isn’t tapping the right threads. Machine looks fine, operating correctly. Die does not look to be damaged and was recently changed. They find out the die came from a new supplier. OK, they have some dies from the older supplier and they put it in and restart the line. Things go smoothly but it doesn’t stop there. Why was the supplier changed? Old supplier is still in business but someone decided to save a few bucks and in the process send business to his uncle’s machine shop. Still not done. Examine this guy further and see he’s done similar things before and eventually realize he’s not fit for that position. Problem solved and future problems prevented.
This wouldn’t have happened in an old american auto plant. While they were diagnosing the problem, a dozen completed cars could have rolled off the line that didn’t. That’s a lot of money. The american philosophy was keep the line rolling. Worker would have increased the torque and kept going. But hundreds or even thousands of cars might have been affected by this flaw, and at 25k miles they’d start coming in for warranty service. Because where the part is, it requires a lot of time to fix and it causes bad publicity.
What I’m saying isn’t that the borrowers aren’t immoral, what I’m saying is it’s irrelevant and expected. The problem needs to be fixed at the root and in this case from what I can see the root somewhere among the lenders, the investment bankers, the GSE’s and the federal government.