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So much for those rich Europeans buying up Bergen County real estate..
Europe Economy Falls Into First Recession in 15 Years
Europe’s economy fell into its first recession in 15 years in the third quarter, paving the way for deeper cuts to interest rates and taxes amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Gross domestic product in the 15 euro nations shrank 0.2 percent from the previous three months, when it also contracted 0.2 percent, the European Union’s Luxembourg-based statistics office said today. The two quarters of contraction — the result of this year’s surges in the cost of credit, the euro and oil prices — mark the first recession since the single currency was introduced almost a decade ago.
Consumers and companies are feeling the pain as sales, profits and hiring deteriorate, forcing the European Central Bank to embark on the fastest round of rate cuts in its history and governments to line up fiscal-stimulus programs. With the U.S. and Asian economies also struggling, leaders from the world’s largest nations meet in Washington today to discuss ways of limiting the impact of the slump.
“The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better,” said Nick Kounis, an economist at Fortis in Amsterdam. “There will be no real recovery before 2010.”
From BusinessWeek:
Trading Down Is the New Real Estate Reality
alf a million dollars is, by almost any standard, a lot of money. But during the past few years, when credit was easy and regulations were loose, to many Americans it didn’t seem like all that much.
That’s because they were able to borrow huge amounts of money to buy new homes, often with little or nothing down. And while most homes sold in the U.S., even at the height of the housing bubble, were $500,000 or less, rising prices in most major cities and affluent suburbs around the country pushed the cost of a three-bedroom home well into seven figures or more.
In fact, in most parts of the country $500,000 has always bought plenty of house. But the gap between $500,000 and $1 million is more than monetary. It is also psychological. And during the recent boom years Americans became reckless consumers, buying cars, houses, clothes and much more that they couldn’t really afford. The dream of a $1 million home, once so distant, became tantalizingly reachable.
Now that’s all changed. While certain pockets, such as Manhattan, San Francisco, and Boston, remain high compared with the rest of the U.S., real estate prices around the country have fallen dramatically. The downside to this, of course, is that many people now owe more money on their homes than their homes are worth. The upside is that valuations are much more realistic—and affordable.
That’s because homes priced at the half-million mark—and higher—are now also beginning to shrink in value. Initially, the properties hit hard by the subprime crisis were lower-priced dwellings more often than not bought by people with poor credit. But now, as too many of us are experiencing, the pain is spreading even to people with good credit and higher incomes.
Royal Bank of Scotland cuts 3,000 jobs.
European car market falls 14.5 % in Oct year over year.
Just another day in paradise.
Last April we met some firends in Princeton and I discussed my house buying plans. Told her I was at the time looking to spend ca 450k. She asked if I knew I was trying to get in at the low end of the market. Bwaaahahahaha.
Nice gesture, but the rules don’t come into play until January 1st, 2010.
From the WSJ:
HUD Unveils New Rules for Mortgages
The Department of Housing and Urban Development announced rules aimed at helping Americans shop for mortgages more effectively, but said it lacks powers to enforce those rules.
The rules update requirements of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, known as Respa, a 1974 law that sets standards for home-purchase transactions. HUD Secretary Steve Preston said changes were needed because “many people made uninformed decisions” in taking out loans. That, he said, contributed to a surge in mortgage defaults.
HUD, which pushed ahead with the rules despite opposition from lenders and others involved in mortgage transactions, estimated the changes will bring savings of nearly $700 in loan-closing costs for the typical consumer.
In a news conference, HUD officials conceded they lack legal authority to penalize violators of the rule. Legislation would be required to give HUD those powers. But they said state and federal regulators of lenders and brokers can insist on compliance with federal rules and that the threat of class-action suits may keep lenders in line.
The rules require a three-page “good-faith estimate” for borrowers explaining rates, fees, any prepayment penalties and the possibility of later increases in monthly payments. HUD said it shrank that form from four pages to three in response to industry complaints.
…
HUD said the rules will help consumers understand how much a broker is being paid in fees, often called “yield spread premiums.” But Rebecca Borne, a lawyer at the Center for Responsible Lending, a nonprofit group pushing for changes in mortgage regulation, said the new HUD forms fail to make those fees clear and won’t prevent abuses of them.
Lenders and brokers will have until Jan. 1, 2010, to start using the forms. HUD dropped a provision that would have required a lengthy “script” to be read to borrowers at the closing table, setting out terms of the loan.
Last April we met some firends in Princeton and I discussed my house buying plans. Told her I was at the time looking to spend ca 450k. She asked if I knew I was trying to get in at the low end of the market. Bwaaahahahaha.
A number of my clients have lowered their price points along with falling prices.
It was always my opinion that buyers would first decide on a price ceiling, and then find a house that fit that criteria. As prices fell, they’d simply buy more house. I felt that this was one of the reasons we haven’t seen median prices drop in this area.
It seems that might not be the case anymore.
grim (6)-
I’d watch those folks who are dropping their price ceiling. My gut tells me a significant percentage of them will never buy a home.
Some people are playing a smart game right now; others just keep throwing up more conditions and roadblocks in order to unconsciously undermine themselves.
We’re headed back to a homeownership rate around 50%, maybe even a little less as the market overshoots to the downside. Every buyer I have, I try to size up their real desire to be part of that 50%. Not everyone qualifies.
The deals are there now. Whatever the asking, you can jam through a lowball, given the right set of circumstances. Just this week, we’ve pushed through 2-3 offers that would’ve ended in disaster six months ago.
Grim: Our price point was based on what we thought we needed to spend for the space we wanted in the area we wanted. Asking prices have dropped significantly since we began monitoring the market and by the time we are ready to buy (fall 2009) I expect they will be lower still (thanks to NJRERE). For us, the change is translating into more cash remaining in the nest egg rather than more house.
BC- from last night-
Thanks for supporting my efforts to expand my knowledge about economics. Thanks to all here –
We are in agreement that the way out of this mess is for the USA to refocus our efforts from a failed financial economy to a productive economy where manufacturing and services are again our forte.
I’m thinking here that the way to do that is to inject funds into SUCCESSFUL business models – not failed ones.
What if the next $350B goes to businesses that can actually employ people. You know, the businesses that are thriving and already proving to be valuable in this global economy. Who would deserve the money? Remember, the concept behind this approach is to REWARD success.
Who would deserve injections of capital (of course they wouldn’t even need it – they are already successful.) BUT – we build on success. It is a basic tenet of education – DUH!
Microsoft? Apple? Who?
My guess is that the Indian car company Tata will buy GM. They’ve already bought a UK prestige nameplate. Once GM hits single digits a new owner who can renegotiate with the unions will look a lot better than a gov’t bailout.
Happy New Year!
“The federal government began the new budget year with a record deficit of $237.2 billion, reflecting the billions of dollars the government has started to pay out to rescue the financial system.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081114/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/budget_deficit;_ylt=ArAOe1euioAihzU9MJ7BdJ_LLJ94
I can almost buy GM now.
Clot 8: Are you saying now is a great time to buy?
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/International_Business/China_says_it_will_hold_on_to_US_assets/articleshow/3712265.cms
“China says it will hold on to US assets”
“China will not panic and sell off its US assets in the face of the global financial crisis, the nation’s central bank vice governor told reporters on Friday.”
Cindy [10],
Stop talking sense. You would never make it in DC.
LONDON (MarketWatch) — Credit insurers Euler Hermes, Atradius and Coface are refusing to write policies for suppliers trading with General Motors on credit, the Financial Times reported. The cut-off of cover will primarily affect the companies’ large operations in Europe, where the insurers do the bulk of their business, the report said. U.S. suppliers largely operate without insurance, the newspaper added.
Goldman bonus;
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fintag/3027950904/
Just heard this one;
TARP (Taking over Anyone’s Reckless Positions)
Clotpoll,
Are you saying that homes are selling in NJ? That can’t be true.
[20],
Yeah, it will be happy hour here in about 5 hours also.
I’d watch those folks who are dropping their price ceiling. My gut tells me a significant percentage of them will never buy a home.
Agree, there is a strong subset of buyers that see no value, whatever the price.
Frank,
Get to the mall, we need the weekend report. I heard there are lines out the door for 8.00/hr seasonal help. You hiring there?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeownership_in_the_United_States
Clot (7) “We are headed back to a homeownership rate around 50%, maybe even a little less as the market overshoots to the downside.”
The chart shows 63% US homeownership in 1960. You think as low as 50%? I remember reading that the percentages ranged from 40% – 43% for 40 years from 1900 to 1940.
From Bloomberg:
Credit Scores More Important Than Ever for Best U.S. Loan Rates
Bryan and Trudi Sorge used two credit cards with 0 percent interest rates to pay for a new deck at their Pine, Colorado, home, unaware the transaction would lower their credit score.
“We thought why use the cash, this is easier,” said Trudi, 47. “But because we maxed them out, it brought our score down.”
When they tried to refinance their adjustable rate mortgage to a 30-year fixed rate, they discovered they would have to pay $3,185 in fees to get the rate they wanted because of their lower score.
“Having a good credit score in today’s environment is more vital than ever,” said Curtis Arnold, chief executive officer of CardRatings.com, in Little Rock, Arkansas, which offers credit card reviews to consumers. A high score can help get credit, and may lead to lower rates on financial products such as insurance and loans, Arnold said.
Scores between 600 and 649 represent a 31 percent default risk, and scores under 599 mean a 51 percent risk, according to MyFico.com, a division of Minneapolis-based Fair Isaac Corp. which developed the Fico credit score many lenders use. The maximum score is 850.
A score of at least 700 is the goal, according to Carol Kaplan, a spokeswoman for the American Bankers Association in Washington. “That will guarantee that you have the most likely chance of getting credit, and qualify for the lowest interest rates,” she said.
“Expatriate pensioners in Europe have seen their average monthly pension income plummet by almost €200 a month thanks to falls in the value of sterling, a collective loss of more than €4 billion of their income in the last two years.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/3449269/Sterling-falls-have-cost-expat-pensioners-billions.html
From MarketWatch:
Citigroup to lay off at least 10,000 workers: report
Citigroup plans to lay off at least 10,000 employees in its investment bank and other divisions throughout the world, starting this week, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter. Chief Executive Vikram Pandit and his deputies instructed officials to slash their budgets for employee compensation by at least 25%, the report said. Meanwhile, the lender is also notifying some of its credit-card customers that their interest rates are being raised by an average of three percentage points, the report said. Citigroup is one of the nation’s largest issuers of credit cards, with 54 million active accounts. The report cited an unnamed source as saying the rate increases would apply to less than 20% of Citigroup’s card portfolio.
BC (26): I’ve been on the losing side of the $/euro exchange for years. In dollar terms, my rent increased from $1,200 per month to $2,000. Back down to about $1,750 recently. Tough to be in euroland earning dollars too.
Why even bother to report?
Freddie Mac Q3 loss $19.44 a share vs $2.07 loss year ago
From CNBC:
That $300 Billion Hope For Homeowners Isn’t Working
I’ve just seen the latest numbers on the recently launched government Hope for Homeowners program, and I’d call them laughable if the whole thing weren’t so blatantly sad.
Hope for Homeowners was launched Oct. 1 as part of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act signed into law on July 30,2008. Proponents used a Congressional Budget Office estimate of 400,000 homeowners that could be helped over three years. The latest projection was that 19,000 applications would be received in the first year.
…
Well I doubt we’re all going to have to worry about that $300 billion. Here’s the reality: In the last two weeks, FHA received exactly 69 applications to the H4H program. Since the start of the program, a little over a month ago, it has received 111. Now I’m no mathematician, but that doesn’t exactly extrapolate out to 400,000 over three years or even 19,000 over one year or even over a few months. In fact, HUD took the projections out of the release.
In the last two weeks, FHA received exactly 69 applications to the H4H program. Since the start of the program, a little over a month ago, it has received 111.
And yet another bailout attempt fails.
I remember quite clearly the panic that was stirred up here by the Hope program getting signed into law. Folks here were just about ready to pull the trigger and buy for fear of missing the boat again. Home prices were going to skyrocket!
111 applications?
Good grief.
From MarketWatch:
Freddie Mac’s third-quarter loss mushrooms past $25 billion mark
From the Record:
Towns may be left holding the bag if Verizon gets its way
Verizon intends to stop paying millions of dollars in local taxes, a move that could cause already cash-strapped towns to shift the cost to homeowners, local officials say.
The company is using a provision of a 1940 state law to argue that utility poles, wires and other landline equipment should no longer be on tax rolls. They claim traditional usage has slipped significantly as more people turn to cable and the Internet for telephone service.
So far, five towns, including Dover and Victory Gardens in Morris County, have been informed that they will not receive their 2009 equipment taxes.
Verizon officials say that 150 towns will lose the tax by 2011, and the company predicts this number will continue to increase.
What other reason could there be than homedebtors simply not wanting to keep their homes? … At any price?
Hope Now, another joke. Why do I picture a campfire, KUMBUYYA!!!
Didn’t someone post the above, youtube?
Will JCP set the pace?
We are seeing a breakdown of whatever was left of societal norms. The housing crisis and government response is demonstrating to the next two generations that it is ok to lie, break contracts, not repay debt, expect immediate gratification, and rely on big brother to come clean up the mess. Who do you trust in an environemnt like this?
Hey Frank,
Where’s that Best Buy all those people were buying stuff? Apparently the company would like to know:
Best Buy Sees Softer Consumer Spending, Lowers Fiscal 2009 EPS Guidance
Best Buy’s Market Share Continues to Increase
MINNEAPOLIS, Nov 12, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) — Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE:BBY) reported today that falling consumer spending, driven by the recent turmoil in the financial markets and other macro economic factors, has resulted in lower-than-expected revenue for the consumer electronics retailer. The uncertainty regarding future consumer spending has limited the company’s ability to project revenue for the critical holiday shopping season and the balance of the fiscal year. Given both the change in economic environment and the significance of the holiday shopping season to the company’s annual earnings, Best Buy is lowering its guidance for the fiscal year and widening its range for potential revenue and earnings.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=83192&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1225540&highlight=
HEHEHE,
That release will forever be known as the “seismic shift” memo.
From MarketWatch:
Sun Microsystems to lay off 5,000-6,000 workers
“Citigroup to lay off at least 10,000 workers: report”
This is a bunch of bull. Citi has hired 100,000 people since 2005, 10,000 is their quarterly voluntary turnover. Citi has hired so many people that if there was one more Indian left in this country they would have hired him to do their IT. Layoff 100,000 to get back to 2005, maybe the stock price will jump to $12.
“Where’s that Best Buy all those people were buying stuff?” In NJ. their stores are packed.
“Get to the mall, we need the weekend report.”
Speaking of the mall, in the City there are lines outside of clothing stores.
Where’s the recession??
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/
– Economist’s View –
“Paul Krugman: Depression Economics Returns”
Frank (20)-
It’s not even fun to lambaste you any more. You’re too much of an idiot.
This is the last time I’ll acknowledge you here. Piss off.
From Paul Tudor Jones.
“I see the younger generation [of hedge fund managers] hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over. When I got into the business, there was so little information on fundamentals, and what little information one could get was largely imperfect. We learned just to go with the chart. Why work when Mr. Market can do it for you? These days, there are many more deep intellectuals in the business, and that, coupled with the explosion of information on the Internet, creates the illusion that there is an explanation for everything.. There are young men and women graduating from college who have a tremendous work ethic, but they get lost trying to understand the logic behind a whole variety of market moves. [at the end of a bull market or bear market] there’s typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach you what to do during that brief, volatile, reign.”
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=71374
Cindy (24)-
You have to factor in that until about 1978, women couldn’t get mortgages. Opening up credit to that important segment probably means we’ll never get down to that 40% range again…no matter how bad it gets.
“Speaking of the mall, in the City there are lines outside of clothing stores.”
Goodwill outlet.
Frank:
What mall are you shopping at?
Abercrombie & Fitch 3Q profit falls 46 percent
Idiot [44],
U.S. retail sales plunge a record 2.8% in October, steeper than projected
BC,
The lines are people seeking employment.
#8 clot: What kind of prices % wise form the peak did these deals get done.
You would think the mall expert would, at the very least, be able to provide us with reliable info?
“Sales at the mall were horrible. Department store sales dropped 1.3%, clothing store sales fell 1.4% and sporting and hobby stores sales fell 1.6%.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF56DB54C%2DB12F%2D497A%2D9A98%2D39104131F861%7D
From Bloomberg:
Freddie Mac Reports Record Quarterly Loss, Asks Treasury for $13.8 Billion
Freddie Mac, seized by the government two months ago, asked the Treasury for $13.8 billion after a record quarterly loss caused its net worth to fall below zero.
The third-quarter net loss widened to $25.3 billion, or $19.44 a share, after writing down tax assets and providing for bad mortgages and securities, McLean, Virginia-based Freddie said in a regulatory filing today. The losses forced Freddie to request government funds and the company said it expects to receive the money by Nov. 29.
…
“You could very well get losses north of $100 billion on both of these companies,” said Paul Miller, an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group Inc. in Arlington, Virginia.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. retail sales down 4.1% in past year
U.S. Oct. auto sales fall 5.5%, most in three years
#20 frank: Oh they are selling, just not at your 2005 fantasty price.
Abercrombie & Fitch is the one with a line all day long.
(48) Clot – “..we’ll never get down to that 40% range again…no matter how bad it gets…”
I was thinking more like… wouldn’t a 60% range – ala 1960 – be more the norm than 50%?
I continue to see listings for houses offered both for sale and for rent where the rental is so low that buying the house makes no sense. Is the assumption that prospective buyers will not see the rental listing?
#23 BC Bob: Speaking of malls, Macy’s has eliminated its personal shopper service.
How sad, people will now actually have to shop for their own clothes.
“This is the last time I’ll acknowledge you here.”
Are you going to find another blog??
How about moveToCuba.com? It’s about time.
“I continue to see listings for houses..”
But people keep buying regardless of price to rent ratio.
“Department store sales dropped 1.3%”
1.3%??? You call this a recession???
Most of these surveys have 2-3% margin of error. 1.3% is a rounding error.
Price ceilings.
I have definitely lowered my price ceiling for the house i would look to buy. Who wants to buy more house, when what you need costs less and has lower taxes and maintenance. From the looks of it I may be satified with a price ceiling about 25% lower than when I first started looking. The best thing about it is than I could afford to pay the mortgage on just my salary and my wife’s would be gravy. Now I just need those asking prices in the blue ribbon towns to catch up to reality.
BC (47)-
Can you tell that Mr. Jones and I went to the same school, growing up?
He turned out a little better than me, though.
Frank,
In case you didn’t know, I got downsized two weeks ago from my position in a global financial company. Now, I check my email everyday hoping that at least one recruiter acknowledged me. I also check my online profiles to see if at least someone even viewed my resume.
Then, I pop a xanax and go to the mall and walk by all the sales people standing at the entrance of their stores because they’re bored to tears with nothing to do.
Just saying.
(48) Clot – “You have to factor in that until about 1978, women couldn’t get mortgages…”
I bought my first home in 1975- Fresno CA – with my soon to be hubby (a single man, a single woman – with right of survivorship) using an unsecured personal loan. It was an 840 sq. ft. one-bd. place for $11,400.00.
I kid you not. I was in banking at the time and – Yes – the banker was a personal friend…different bank, though.
Whoa… Potential for 25% cuts for Citibank.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/14/business/14place.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Grim,
Un-mod me please. :)
Ref rent to buy ratio. I recently read annual rent should be about 15x purchase price. I’m seeing rents at 13x. This would mean housing is overpriced?
#42 frank 10,000 is their quarterly voluntary turnover.
Quarterly voluntary in their investment banking department? You are an ididot. And you claim to work in the street too.
Bank just dropped the price of a home I’ve been eyeing in Oceanport to $314,900. The home sold in April of 2006 for $560,000. 44% off!
DL(11)
No way Tata is buying GM. They are already drowning in the debt and losses associated with their idiotic Jaguar and Landrover purchases from Ford.
Nobody will buy GM as-is. The most economically sensible thing would be for them to go bankrupt, breaking the backs of their union, selling off the less bad businesses to Honda, Ford, and VW (the only carmakers on the planet who could conceivably afford to buy), and let them produce the vehicles with non-union labor at lower cost in other (right to work states) parts of the US.
That of course will not happen. The government will protect their labor lobby, draining taxpayers and the more productive US automakers (namely Toyota and Honda – who make lots of cars in the US, but don’t employ nearly as many overpaid unionized voters). The government will thus sacrifice the efficient and productive upon the altar of incompetence.
Because of this, (government protecting high-cost-structure producers) and environmental regulations/mandates, rising taxes, and lower wealth, automobiles will become increasingly unaffordable.
Enjoy supporting union labor!
3b [71],
I just saw that one. Quarterly voluntary turnover? What a freakin buffoon.
3b (53)-
25%-ish. However, you have to look at this as a preview of the Spring. I’d still say the overwhelming amount of sellers out there would reject the kinds of numbers we’re tossing out on the odd property here and there.
It also helped on the deals that we did that we “got the drop” on the owners’ current financial situations.
More significant to me are four things I see happening:
1. Inventory levels are not retreating to “normal” Winter market levels.
2. Seeing more 50K-100K price reductions. Since I’m not a data guy, I don’t count them…but I sure as heck am seeing more.
3. Seeing fewer sellers come on market at fantasy prices.
4. Short sales and REO have completely blown up the comps at the entry level (under about 225K) in my area. My gut is that entry-level housing is now solidly 30-35% below peak.
Frank:
Please give the recipe for your delusional kool-aid. As i am losing my job in February, I would like to feel as foot loose and fancy free as you right about now.
#65 hard place:Now I just need those asking prices in the blue ribbon towns to catch up to reality.
Those asking prices are/will catch up to reality.
As far as blue ribbon, I would not get all caught up in that, just my opinion. Blue ribbon is alot of fuss about a lot of nothing in many cases.
So what are we going to do with a soon-to-be empty Xanadu?
Affordable housing? Thosands of Tokyo-style tiny apartments?
Maybe a new prison? Or a giant casino?
(79)-
Ordnance testing?
76 – Sounding more like California…
#76 clot; Thanks as always. Looks like a preview of the Spring 2009 market.
Frank:
Spend a little less time at the mall cruising for chicks and read what CR has to say about retail sales…
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/retail-sales-collapse-in-october.html
grim,
We need Xanadu; I’ll need to get a job eventually, I suppose. Should I go for Foot Locker or Nathans for my new employment? I think I’d look good in those striped shirts.
AH [77],
What industry are you in?
#75 BC Bob: You have to just laugh, and the clown claims he is on the “street”.
All Hype (77):
“Please give the recipe for your delusional kool-aid.”
You must start by using water from that major river in Egypt…then mix in anything else you prefer.
This drink is best enjoyed while ogling teenagers at Abercrombie & Fitch at your local mall.
Clot 4. Short sales and REO have completely blown up the comps at the entry level (under about 225K) in my area. My gut is that entry-level housing is now solidly 30-35% below peak.
Plankton theory in effect.
Stu,
“This drink is best enjoyed while ogling teenagers at Abercrombie & Fitch at your local mall.”
I’m starting to learn all the cool pick-up lines teen chicks like to hear. Hey, there’s a thought. I can become a sugar daddy!!
Scary chart of the day, from CR:
YOY Retail Sales
Patiently waiting to hear that Cabellas is pulling out of Xanadu…
Gary (90)-
Isn’t a sugar daddy supposed to be forking out money? What you need to do is find a sugar mommy.
Maybe Louis Vuitton customers are more in line with your target audience.
HP (89)-
Indeed. However, keep in mind that the “dominoes” that would normally begin falling- were the market regaining health- will not fall this time.
The people coming out of the short sales/REO at the entry level will not be trading up. They are blasted out of the game entirely…and probably forever.
Therefore, the only way for the dominoes to begin falling is for housing at every price tier above entry level to fall dramatically. In effect, housing must accommodate income level…not the opposite of that, which is what sparked the bubble.
My friend is working 5th straight month wthout pay (ASIC Engineer). They are still OK because the spouse is still working.
3b
As far as blue ribbon, I would not get all caught up in that, just my opinion. Blue ribbon is alot of fuss about a lot of nothing in many cases.
True, but I like to impress my friends. ;0
gary (90)
So, “can you help me find my puppy” has stopped working for you?
“I’m starting to learn all the cool pick-up lines teen chicks like to hear.”
Like I have said about Citi.
“Worst May Be Yet to Come for Citigroup”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/14/business/14place.html?_r=2&ref=busines
Frank Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:14 am
Speaking of the mall, in the City there are lines outside of clothing stores.
Where’s the recession??
Frank: Have you seen the sales? It is the holidays you know. Assuming you aren’t f—d beyond belief, you HAVE to be forking the coin over NOW for the proper selection. I seeing stuff such items normally $75-$150 selling for $30-$80. Stupid…give it away stuff. I am standard size and weight, so if I don’t step up, it is pointless. I told family the same. What you should review is not volumes, but rather gross margins, which I guarantee are in the s-itter…..
Clotpoll,
The puppy line went out years ago, I quickly learned. The “Willy the wonder worm” line didn’t work too well, either. Anything with the words “text message” or “iPod” initially gets their attention. And using the words “umm” and “like” will usually keep their attention at least for 30 seconds.
#98 frank: Before you post a link you should actually read the article.
101 comments by 9:30? How am I supposed to be able to work nd keep up?
#96 hardplace:I like to impress my friends.
I don’t think you have to worry about that anymore either.
I think you will end up depressing them when you tell them what kind of discount you got on the price from peak, especially if they live in one of the so called blue ribbon towns.
Newsday canceled its big Friday Real Estate Section today and the new section is called Your LI Home with house makeovers, celeb housing info and neighborhood profiles. Gone are flips and remodel tips to bring big bucks at flip time. I guess it is dead.
Cindy times have not changed, when I refinanced I could not put my wife on the mortgage as she does not work, Chase said they would not allow it if I wanted a good rate. But it goes to show Chase is looking out for the stay at home moms, they put the wife on the title but not on the mortgage.
Cindy Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:54 am
(48) Clot – “You have to factor in that until about 1978, women couldn’t get mortgages…”
I bought my first home in 1975- Fresno CA – with my soon to be hubby (a single man, a single woman – with right of survivorship) using an unsecured personal loan. It was an 840 sq. ft. one-bd. place for $11,400.00.
I kid you not. I was in banking at the time and – Yes – the banker was a personal friend…different bank, though.
Speaking of the mall, in the City there are lines outside of clothing stores.
They’re returning last year stuff hoping to get store credit.
Frank and his Hedge fund savants in the WSJ.
Frank question What clicks and holds paper toghether?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122661621189526173.html
You know, I’d respect Benny more if he dyed his beard, think Walt Frazier. That two tone thing he has going on just doesn’t work for me.
99 chifi-
i’m trying to digest what your saying… i guess what you mean is that inventory will be drying up shortly, as all major retailers are in a rush to liquidate and they won’t be replacing it. so if you’re someone who wears standard size clothes, you better go buy some nice stuff for yourself NOW before it’s all gone at fire sale prices.
it’s not like in the past, where these items would be replenished in short order. once the inventory is gone from some of these retailers, it’s not coming back.
very interesting indeed. i think we are all going to have to start thinking in new ways… not that many here already weren’t.
My girlfriend and I are looking at a house in Hamilton. The list price was originally 289k. It’s down to 259k and will probably be lowered to 239k. Similar houses next door were selling for 120k in 1998. We were thinking alone the lines of offering 180k any thoughts?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/White-House-takes-aim-derivative/story.aspx?guid=%7B30CB2C33%2D3C87%2D4394%2DBB42%2DBC85B162DDA5%7D&dist=hplatest
White House Takes Aim on Derivatives – Something in place by the beginning of the year they said on TV…We shall see…
“We were thinking alone the lines of offering 180k any thoughts?”
According to Clotpoll, they are free, there are no buyers.
John (105) – Yeah, I was working – Cool – “…they put the wife on the title but not on the mortgage.”
Have a great day everyone!
“think Walt Frazier”
JB,
That’s Clyde.
The Knicks doing a lot of dishing but not much swishing.
5 year return on Dow is negative now. If you were to invest in NJ RE 5 years ago you would have been up 100%+
You make the choice.
….please don’t feed the TROLL
sl
Patiently waiting to hear that Cabellas is pulling out of Xanadu…
But Grim, where will everyone go to buy tents for the new tent city that is bound to spring up in the parking lot?
#115 frank: But you invested 3 years ago, at the peak.
Lowball if you have a good downpayment, nothing to sell and better tell them you are engaged. My experience with GF/BF sales and rentals are I don’t like to make a deal where based on a couple is still dating in 60 days when it is time to close.
ben Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 9:47 am
My girlfriend and I are looking at a house in Hamilton. The list price was originally 289k. It’s down to 259k and will probably be lowered to 239k. Similar houses next door were selling for 120k in 1998. We were thinking alone the lines of offering 180k any thoughts?
5 year return on Dow is negative now. If you were to invest in NJ RE 5 years ago you would have been up 100%+
What on Earth are you talking about Frank?
S&P Case Shiller NY Metro Area Index
August 2003 – 155.14
August 2008 – 192.84
My math puts that at approximately up 24% in the past 5 years, not 100%.
Gary,
Are you aware of this jobs site:
http://www.efinancialcareers.com/
Also, Bloomberg is always hiring tech types.
Clot,
This one is for you.
From Bloomberg:
Apollo’s Realogy May Default, Offers to Exchange Debt
Realogy Corp., owner of the Century 21 and Coldwell Banker brands, is at risk of violating the terms of its bank loans and offered to exchange bonds at a discount for new debt.
A drop in home sales and prices “will negatively affect the quarterly calculation of our senior secured leverage ratio,” Parsippany, New Jersey-based Realogy said in a filing dated yesterday. “There can be no assurance that we will not violate this or other covenants.”
Leon Black’s buyout firm Apollo Management LP bought Realogy for $6.6 billion in April 2007. U.S. home prices tumbled the most in at least 17 years in August and foreclosures increased to the highest on record in the third quarter, according to reports last month from the Federal Housing Finance Agency and RealtyTrac, a seller of foreclosure data.
Realogy is giving its noteholders the option to swap their securities at a discount for up to $500 million in principal amount of new second lien loans that will mature in 2014, according to a press release dated yesterday.
If Century 21 and Coldwell fold, who will be left to sell all these houses?
Don’t forget about ERA, Sotheby’s, and BH&G, all part of the Realogy family.
“If Century 21 and Coldwell fold, who will be left to sell all these houses?”
JB,
You, Clot and KL.
Sell? Sell to whom?
weichert sucks
Plan W, coming up! We got the last 17 bailout attempts wrong, but trust us, we’ve got it right this time.
What happens when they finally come to the realization that a large number of these homeowners don’t want to be saved?
FDIC says plan could help 1.5 million keep homes
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. says a new plan could help 1.5 million American households avoid foreclosure.
The agency released details Friday of a revised plan to have the government spend $24.4 billion to guarantee 2.2 million modified loans through the end of next year.
The FDIC says that the government’s backing will make the lending industry more willing to modify loans because taxpayers will absorb half of the losses if the borrower defaults again.
Even if a third of those borrowers default again, 1.5 million homes will still be saved.
Victorian Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 9:14 am
“Gary (90)-
Isn’t a sugar daddy supposed to be forking out money? What you need to do is find a sugar mommy.
Maybe Louis Vuitton customers are more in line with your target audience.”
Vic – you beat me to it. Gary you need a cougar who can buy you Rolex’s.
re: #111 Cindy – There is a full court press to get the derviatives onto the ICE market owned by GS and JPM before the next administration shows up for work, they have already setup a special purpose banking entity within the state of New York for this new exchange.
My opinion is this is the main reasons why the O man was disinvited from the G-20 meeting.
I wonder what our country club cowboy of a President is going to do when Putin slams his fist on the desk and the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and President of the EU Sarkosy who have formed an alliance of sorts start pressing Schrub on a new world financial order?
Gary,
I am hiring. Please help me find someone. Anyone.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/sof/912971690.html
3131 frank; No one is available, they are all applying to Citi.
“Sell? Sell to whom?”
JB,
LOL.
Frank [131],
Why don’t you try a real site, like Dice/ E Financial careers. No wonder you can’t find anybody.
By the way, did you hunt on CL to find that job post?
“Why don’t you try a real site, like Dice/ E Financial careers.”
I have this job posted on 6 websites.
Nobody is applying. Where’s the recession?
Where are the jobless?
TO post #128:
grim Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 10:21 am
Plan W, coming up! We got the last 17 bailout attempts wrong, but trust us, we’ve got it right this time.
What happens when they finally come to the realization that a large number of these homeowners don’t want to be saved?
They want to be saved. It is just they want to get something for free… Unless they do get it they have no intention to keep on paying.
By the way even this new bail-out plan will do nothing as it account for about 10K/mortgage, and if that’s all what it took banks would be quite happy to write it off. IN most cases problem is that house is underwater by 50-100K or more and 10K/loan is not going to fix it.
Similarly, 10K principal write-off will do absolutely nothing for a person who just lost his job.
Instead of bail-outs and hand-outs to banks government should start New Hope type of program.
Since It is my believe that higher power whatever they are read this blog and follow what people say here quite accuratelly, here is my suggestion for Hope 2010 Program:
I vote for starting building Well Connected Railroad Network capable of both passenger and cargo traffic. It works quite well in Europe, and savings from replacing long-haul Truck based shipping industry with train shipping industry are tremendous.
Rail roads are about 5-10 times more economical for cargo shipping than on-highway trucks. Locomotives can be powered by both electricity, oil or coal or natural gas, ethano, biofuels (I am pretty sure by hydrogen as well for all of you alternative furel lovers – also extremelly expensive)…
Creation of railroad network will increase general mobility of population.
P.S. Do not write off Airlines either. For passenger traffic they are at about 80MPG vs. average car in USA right now at about 50 (two passengers in a car for a long trips). Plus the speed and convinience. In addition if you think about it airports require less infrastructure compare to the car-traffic. Only local airports with no roads, bridges, less snow plowing and repairs.
So abandon all stupid bail-outs efforts and start a new Programm which will create jobs, and greatly improve future potential of the country. This crisis might be a hidden blessing for the country, but somebody (president) have to have vision, leadership and courage do act now or in the nearest future.
TO post #128:
grim Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 10:21 am
Plan W, coming up! We got the last 17 bailout attempts wrong, but trust us, we’ve got it right this time.
What happens when they finally come to the realization that a large number of these homeowners don’t want to be saved?
They want to be saved. It is just they want to get something for free… Unless they do get it they have no intention to keep on paying.
By the way even this new bail-out plan will do nothing as it account for about 10K/mortgage, and if that’s all what it took banks would be quite happy to write it off. IN most cases problem is that house is underwater by 50-100K or more and 10K/loan is not going to fix it.
Similarly, 10K principal write-off will do absolutely nothing for a person who just lost his job.
Instead of bail-outs and hand-outs to banks government should start New Hope type of program.
Since It is my believe that higher power whatever they are read this blog and follow what people say here quite accuratelly, here is my suggestion for Hope 2010 Program:
I vote for starting building Well Connected Railroad Network capable of both passenger and cargo traffic. It works quite well in Europe, and savings from replacing long-haul Truck based shipping industry with train shipping industry are tremendous.
Rail roads are about 5-10 times more economical for cargo shipping than on-highway trucks. Locomotives can be powered by both electricity, oil or coal or natural gas, ethano, biofuels (I am pretty sure by hydrogen as well for all of you alternative furel lovers – also extremelly expensive)…
Creation of railroad network will increase general mobility of population.
P.S. Do not write off Airlines either. For passenger traffic they are at about 80MPG vs. average car in USA right now at about 50 (two passengers in a car for a long trips). Plus the speed and convinience. In addition if you think about it airports require less infrastructure compare to the car-traffic. Only local airports with no roads, bridges, less snow plowing and repairs.
So abandon all stupid bail-outs efforts and start a new Programm which will create jobs, and greatly improve future potential of the country. This crisis might be a hidden blessing for the country, but somebody (president) have to have vision, leadership and courage do act now or in the nearest future.
Frank,
Posting on Craigs List as an example??? Are you kidding?
BTW – What’s the rate of return on the Beanie Babies you have listed on CL?
Let them eat cake!
Bailouts are for banks not for the lowly peasentry.
http://tinyurl.com/5h6awd
….must…not…feed…the…troll…
Frank [#135]
You are looking for a quant + .Net developer, right?
What is the issue? No one is applying, or you are not finding anyone with the correct skills?
If no one is applying, it could be because they may think that the job is not really there and is more like a resume honey pot. If you put it on Dice, you will get tons of CVs coming your way.
I know people that are joining grad school because they are not able to find the right jobs…
S
Frank [135],
My office is stacked with resumes, floor to ceiling. You are an incompetent nitwit. At least Bi is entertaining.
SL [140],
You’re right. However, it’s much cheaper than feeding the stock market.
[92] grim
Never understood why Cabela’s would want to be in Rutherford. Half of what they sell is illegal in NJ anyway. Unless they are gonna be like LL Bean and stop selling great outdoors stuff to concentrate on overpriced home furnishing crap.
BC, 143,
True… I wonder what the up/down range is gonna be today… Clot’s right. Some days I feel like I’m in Vegas.
sl
“Lowball if you have a good downpayment, nothing to sell and better tell them you are engaged. My experience with GF/BF sales and rentals are I don’t like to make a deal where based on a couple is still dating in 60 days when it is time to close.”
John, good point. But my girlfriend will be making the purchase on her own. She has the down payment and the 800 credit score. I’d have nothing to do with the deal itself.
Frank [#135]
You are looking for a quant + .Net developer, right?
Get my email address from JB. I can help you find at least 5 people.
800 credit score?? and a smoking hot bod?
hang on to that one benny
144 Nom – it was due to the high number of Jersey folk making the trek to Central PA. Cabela’s saw a need due to trend analysis and I believe they got a very favorable square footage rate from the complex. If you have ever been in any of their stores it is as much about the experience as the merch. There is also a huge contingent of sportsman in this state. I believe shooting sports fishing expenditures, and related support industries have been in excess of 1 billion dollars each of the last few years. My question has always been what took them so long. Regardless, I’ll still be going to Meltzer’s, Targeteers and other small sportshops. Rather support the little guy when I can.
Where the F$%^ is my year end rally??!!??
BC/Clot – This looks a little different than the previous bear markets. (if you discount the March and July rallies). Unrelenting selling pressure. Do you guys agree?
SG (147),
Please let us know how that works out.
Vic [150],
This will not be compared to any bear market in our lifetime. This is grandaddy’s bear market.
OT;
US women’s U-17 national team in the world cup final this weekend in New Zealand, vs. Korea, after upsetting Germany. BOOOYAAA.
Go Jen!!
http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5hrS4HcutH4fsaO7ngVlkkvMlCXYQ
Frank, I kind of liked your balance on this board as most on this site are a little too gloom and doom for my taste, but I can see why they’ve all jumped on you.
The number of people I know personally who are laid off right now (white and blue collar jobs, in NYC and elsewhere, family/friends/acquaintances/neighbors/ex-coworkers) is absolutely frightening.
Be glad that you’re not affected, but to say “where’s the recession” when you can’t fill your job opening just makes no sense.
got an opp to secure 20 gold coins (1/10 oz) for $1742.
that’s 870 an oz, which i think is a good price for physical.
just wanted to check in with some of the gold bugs in here quickly for their thoughts.
Yikes, what kind of coins? that makes a bit of difference. seems that coins from US (Eagle)/Canadian (Maple Leaf)/South African (Kruggerand) mints are favored.
that’s a very good price if it’s one of those.
Cindy @ 8:18am — In your learnings, note that Paul Krugman is a dishonest nutball, both twisting and omitting key data to bolster his personal political beliefs.
Yikes [155],
Right now, Dec is trading at $744.60. The contract expires at the end of the month. If you buy, Dec, today, you can take delivery upon expiration. Only catch, the contract size is 100 oz. Based on current price, that’s $74,460. If you have the capability to cut into 100, 1 oz pieces, you can make, based on your price, $125 per oz.
[158] cont’d,
However, you won’t have a coin.
Thanks BC and Randy. Really, it’s a strange deal – relative used to be in the jewelry game (own business, all that) and still has wholesale connections. has been working them for coins for 2 months and nothing … until today.
this is a legit NYC company the relative has been dealing with for over 15 years, so i feel it is a safe deal.
i believe they are maple leaf, or they might be vienna orchestra (dont have full name).
pulling the trigger now …
FXP and EEV on a tear today.
#157 qwerty both twisting and omitting key data to bolster his personal political beliefs.
Do you have any examples, just asking.
Chrysler leaders get millions.
Automaker defends payouts amid looming bailout talks.
http://www.freep.com/article/20081113/BUSINESS01/311130002
This will fall on sympathetic ears, I’m sure.
Yikes,
I don’t know anything about coins. I do know Gartman owns kruggerands.
Amazing, you can’t buy the physical at close to Comex prices.
How about I take delivery, you arrange to have the 100 oz bar cut and we’ll market 1/10, 1/2 and 1 ounce, pure physical.
Yikes,
Have fun selling them ;P
BC,
No sense cutting, cutting makes dust that will need to be reclaimed. You’ll need to melt and pour, so factor in the foundry costs.
In addition, you’ll need to factor in the cost of the assay, nobody is going to buy a BC Bobberand without an assay that the product is what you say it is.
Oh, and inventory shrinkage.
Lets just smelt our own coinage, the margin is probably better. We can use dollars to fire the kiln, cheaper than coal.
3b @ 12:03pm — Here’s one…
Paul Krugman, 4 1/2 months after 9-11:
“I predict that in the years ahead Enron, not Sept. 11, will come to be seen as the greater turning point in U.S. society.”
nytimes.com/2002/01/29/opinion/29KRUG.html
Aside from being an absurd statement in its own right, Krugman was paid by $50,000 by Enron as an adviser, which is not mentioned in this article, nor any other of his articles. That says a lot about the author, and more importantly, his editors at the NY Times.
Lets just smelt our own coinage, the margin is probably better
1 ounce GRIM coins. Sounds scary if you’re the fed.
have you had to do such a thing?
I don’t think supplies of Gold are going to last very long.
Check this news out of Hong Kong.
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=30&art_id=74335&sid=21457716&con_type=1
BC, Clot, are you guys holding physical?
Victorian.
Told you FXP was interesting. Unfortunately, I don’t trade! Witnessed way too many people get hurt in 2001.
Yikes [170],
Futures, long dated options, ETF, stocks.
Not for today nor tomorrow, looking out 5 years.
Yikes,
Nope. It’s just not an area I want to be involved in. The costs surrounding buying, selling and storing of physical metals is just not something I want to do. Maybe if it looks like Armageddon, but not today.
I’d much rather purchase something ‘real’, like credit default swaps betting on the decline of commercial real estate.
tee he he
From Sean’s link:
“Government officials involved in the management of China’s reserves are beginning to see gold as an attractive place to park some of these funds. They see it as a real, tangible asset that will not lose its value over time – in stark contrast to the greenback, which is becoming more disconnected from economic realities as more bills are printed.”
im just wondering … can anyone recall this much negativity and fear during previous recessions? is it all heightened due to the internet? heck, in 1987, there was probably fear, but there wasn’t cable news or the internet to drill it into our heads.
JB,
Cut, melt, pour, etc.. Too much work.
In 1987, there was no E*trade or TD Ameritrade.
Stu Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Yikes,
Nope. It’s just not an area I want to be involved in. The costs surrounding buying, selling and storing of physical metals is just not something I want to do.
i’d love to read horror stories about people trying to sell gold. You know, because im a worry wart.
“In 1987, there was no E*trade or TD Ameritrade.”
Stu,
But there was portfolio insurance. Akin to today’s derivatives, dispersing and hedging risk. HAH!.
It is actually still hard to fill junky jobs. For instance my friend who got laid off last week got 60 days paid as company did it on spot and did not give 60 days WARN notice. Then starting in eight weeks she gets three months at 100% paid severance. If she takes a job in those three months her severance stops as well as unemployment. There are lots of people who were let go who had good six figure careers still getting their severance pay. They won’t accept the junk jobs until spring 2009. I certainly would not.
“They won’t accept the junk jobs until spring 2009. I certainly would not.”
John,
Junk jobs in 2008 may be nirvana in 2009. Remember, the floor and ceiling have been lowered.
John, just curious … you holding physical gold?
dont seem to recall you talking about it …
Gold is a dumb investment. Pays no dividend or interest is heavy and bulky and the costs to store it and secure it are high. On top of that the ETF charges fees. That said for traders willing to bet on it or hedge short term in declining markets it is ok but long term you will lose money. Plus it is a rigged market that is poorly regulated by the CFTC. I have done precious metals iutrading desk audits and the non exchange trades, physical delivery deals etc. that go on is shamefull. My favorite one is that Aloca bought lots of alumninum scrap dealers and they build up huge positions of physical inventory. When they want to lock in on cheap forward alumninum prices the week before they clean house and dump all their physical inventory on the market and then lock in. Joe blow playing online in the commodities market is investing with limited information and luck and a rising market is often confused for inteligence
It will be the great depression before 900K traders are driving their 100K german cars to home depot to put on an orange apron for eight bucks and hour.
BC Bob Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
“They won’t accept the junk jobs until spring 2009. I certainly would not.”
John,
Junk jobs in 2008 may be nirvana in 2009. Remember, the floor and ceiling have been lowered.
I see severance as a splendid opportunity to pick up some serious overtime. Call me cheap, but if I can find a job that pays me half of what I am making in severance and still job search at the same time, I’ll gladly don an orange apron.
And about John’s comments on the metals trading. Gold is not an investment vehicle. I see it purely as a hedge against Armageddon (hyper-inflation). IMO, FAZ is a much better way to perform the same function and will only cost you a 3rd of the principal.
#183 John: It will be the great depression before 900K traders are driving their 100K german cars to home depot to put on an orange apron for eight bucks and hour.
Yeash, sure, they can just go and work at another frim for 900K.
900k trader jobs are redundant. No demand left. These guys are just going to have to get over themselves.
“Pays no dividend”
John,
What medium of exchange, currency, in the world today pays a dividend? Do you receive a dividend in the cross rates? What kind of dividend does a good faith/promise pay?
“Plus it is a rigged market that is poorly regulated by the CFTC.”
How has the SEC fared regarding regulations? Rigged markets, look no further than JPM.
“Joe blow playing online in the commodities market is investing with limited information”
What kind of information did Joe blow receive from analyst’s/ceo’s/carnival barkers regarding their investmments in IB’s?
From the archives; Caveat Emptor!
“Gold is not an investment vehicle”
Stu,
Correct. It’s an Anti-Investment vehicle.
Oil at these levels is really cheap. I can now buy almost 13 barrels with one ounce of shiny stuff. And 11.5 shares of DOW or GS
Gold is up 300% valued in GS. Buffet is not always right it seems.
BC,
Can you explain the disconnect between COMEX and life when it comes to Gold, or you just don’t care.
http://www.thoseshirts.com/diversity.html
This site’s definition of diversity.
BC – I am on the sidelines all in Munis, Investement Grade bonds and FDIC insured CD, last I checked I have been getting my interest payments. Also I own JPM stock so it you are telling me they can rig the market to their advantage that sounds like a buy signal
Gold is only worth what people are willing to pay for it nothing else. It really does not have much value. Heck at one time pet rocks had value along with member only jackets but now not so much. I may not have been smart enough to be fired from GS but I know enough. The dopey gold traders I know tell me I go long full in every year when I get my limits and ride the wave for a few years and collect huge bonuses and when it blows up I will get fired but hey it ain’t my money anyhow I just go elsewhere. Gold is a grenade with the trigger pulled out being passed around, like oil did this year someone is going to drop the grenade and get blown up.
I guess George disagrees with John;
“George Soros warns ‘hedge funds will be decimated”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article5150916.ece
we are in the same boat. just stockpiling cash (and maybe a little gold). we still have the same target – 500k house, 200k down, and that’s our max. can’t see us eclipsing it for anything.
problem is, we want one certain town in Bucks County and we’re unwavering. and there are a lot of stubborn homeowners who won’t bite on lowballs.
i know everyone says people move every 7-10 years or whatever, but we’re buying with the idea that we will be there for 30 years. both of our jobs (we hope) are ones that will allow us to remain in the area.
Nope, certain firms say any money you make while on severance is taken from your severance check. That is the deal GS just gave everyone. Chase on other hand lets you double dip.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
I see severance as a splendid opportunity to pick up some serious overtime. Call me cheap, but if I can find a job that pays me half of what I am making in severance and still job search at the same time, I’ll gladly don an orange apron.
“The dopey gold traders I know tell me I go long full in every year ”
John,
Well I was selling option premium to them for years. God bless them.
It’s really simple. Just plan the trade and then trade the plan. Leave the grenades for others. Funny, you are allowed to hedge your risk in the gold market. Who knew?
John, you taking the bet?
Ecuador to Miss $30 Million Bond Interest Payment Due Tomorrow
Ecuador will miss a $30 million interest payment due tomorrow, opting to use the 30-day grace period to decide whether to honor the debt as a tumble in oil prices erodes the South American country’s revenue.
The price on the 12 percent bonds maturing in 2012 plunged to as low as 14 cents on the dollar, sending yields over 100 percent, as investors braced for the first sovereign default since the global financial crisis deepened in September.
Georgo Soros is a nut. Didn’t he almost blow up back in the days of LTCM? Hedgies sell what is liquid to pay for their failed bets. Believe me they will be selling gold like crazy to make margin calls when that day comes and gold will also be in the junk heap.
Funny, no word from John regarding the new low in S&P’s/Nasdaq yesterday.
Sorry BC my bottom was touched, but I guess with your lifestyle you must know alot about getting your bottom touched.
Hot off the presses, Ecuador files to become a bank holding company in the US, will apply to the TARP for funding.
“Didn’t he almost blow up back in the days of LTCM?”
NO. However, he blew up the BOE in 1992. He also was on the other side of the trade, Asian cuurency crisis.
John [198],
I won’t even respond. You dick.
RE Qwerty
Hey man check your link…see that word in the middle – opinion -? Krugman is a columnist and most would make the distinction between his pieces and the articles that appear in the pages that precede the editorial section. You do understand that, right?
Are you proud but bitter ex Enron exec?
What do you think of Kristol and Brooks who appear on the same page? Should the ‘editors’ give any more credence to your criticisms of Krugman as they do to mine of Kristol?
On the topic of bottom touching…
I’m always aware when my bottom is touched. I’m also fairly certain that my bottom is W-shaped and would look really funny if it was U or V shaped. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ve even come close to touching the market bottom nor determining its shape.
Qwerty: Please save your ammunition for the inauguration. Until then, continue to enjoy reading the partisan drivel you call news from the likes of the Post and the Drudge Report.
I’m still waiting for the natives to riot BTW.
# DL Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:04 am
We are seeing a breakdown of whatever was left of societal norms. The housing crisis and government response is demonstrating to the next two generations that it is ok to lie, break contracts, not repay debt, expect immediate gratification, and rely on big brother to come clean up the mess. Who do you trust in an environemnt like this?
mostly, i trust anonymous posters on this very website. well, except clowns like reinvestor, frank and bi.
i just laugh at those guys.
We can add Ecuador on the country collapse Friday list.
They are so funny. Silly Ecuadorians why default and make yoursef look bad when you can just print the money.
What Ecuador needs is a federal reserve and a helicopter thats all.
Just lay there, it is usually less painful. BC Bob Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
John [198],
I won’t even respond. You dick.
paulson on CNBC talking out of his as*.
“we have stabalized the system.”
what a clown
BC –
What are your thoughts on owning agriculture commodities?
How did a stuttering refrigerator salesman ever become the Secretary of the Treasury? He isn’t even a good liar.
211 He’s tall, he has a nice smile and he holds his hands together at the fingertips.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Hot off the presses, Ecuador files to become a bank holding company in the US, will apply to the TARP for funding.
What about Argentina and Russia and of course Iceland – Icelandic girls are HOT!!!!)
If you analyze gold price data back to 1933, Gold generated average annual price appreciation of 4.7% a year on average. That pales next to the 11.8% average return of stocks, measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500.
And gold has been a riskier asset — 20% riskier than stocks. It’s true that sometimes gold zigs while stocks zag, and that may be a reason to own some gold. But with an average annual return of 4.7%, you would be better off putting your money in a money market fund.
From the Star Ledger:
Declines in three main state taxes fuel N.J. deficit increase
The falloff in state revenue that has left lawmakers grappling with a $1.2 billion budget shortfall marks the first time in six years that collections from the state’s three largest taxes, the income, sales and corporate taxes, have dropped simultaneously, the Legislature’s budget analysts reported today.
“Only one of the state’s top 12 tax revenue sources is showing positive growth over the last fiscal year,” says the monthly update from the Office of Legislative Services.
The report notes that income tax collections, which are below last year’s collections by 2.7 percent through October, were particularly hurt by a falloff in estimated quarterly tax payments. Such payments are generally made by “taxpayers with significant sources of non-wage income,” such as capital gains, according to the report.
With housing prices skidding and mortgages hard to come by, collections from the state’s realty transfer tax are down 25 percent from their levels of a year ago.
And sales taxes, at about $2.09 billion, is $71 million short of last year’s collections, according to the report.
“This is the third consecutive month of declining receipts, mirroring national reports of falling consumer confidence, poor retail sales and tumbling car sales,” says the report. “The prospects for a weak holiday shopping season remain a serious concern.”
OLS Snapshot
http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/legislativepub/budget/FY09_October.pdf
John [213],
What an idiotic analysis.
Who cares what it did in 1933. Now go back and chart the dow/gold ratio from 2001. Tell me, where did that grenade land.
Suppose one bought in 2003 and is hedged in the mid 900’s. What were you saying about a grenade?
“You are looking for a quant + .Net developer, right? ”
Just ask them to apply to the Craiglist post.
# Stu Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
And about John’s comments on the metals trading. Gold is not an investment vehicle. I see it purely as a hedge against Armageddon (hyper-inflation). IMO, FAZ is a much better way to perform the same function and will only cost you a 3rd of the principal.
Correct me if I’m wrong, I don’t think that’s true in case of armageddon. It would be ironic if people complaining about the bailouts were actually receiving TARP money through the ultra shorts.
“Counterparty Risks
The use of swap agreements and structured notes involves risks that are different from those associated with ordinary portfolio securities transactions. For example, the Funds bear the risk of loss of the amount expected to be received under a swap agreement in the event of the default or bankruptcy of a swap agreement counterparty.”
http://www.direxionshares.com/pdfs/DRX_prospectus.pdf
I say they are lucky to make a killing in a five year period off an asset that has an 85 year annualized return of 4.3%. Kinda like getting in early on the beanie baby craze.
Suppose one bought in 2003 and is hedged in the mid 900’s. What were you saying about a grenade?
“You are looking for a quant + .Net developer, right?”
I am getting a lot of resumes, but all of them are F1 or H1B visas and I don’t have the time nor resources to get them visas.
nwnj1:
Thank you. I am well aware of the counter party risk.
Frank is looking for a Java programmer with 15 years experience.
Never mind that Java was introduced in 1995.
I know who to use an abacus and a slide rule.
Wait…no I don’t.
“Just ask them to apply to the Craiglist post.”
Why not post the links to your other six sites. If you have the job posted on Monster or efinancial, you may be take more seriously.
CL is for garage sales and cash transactions only
“CL is for garage sales and cash transactions only”
And hot dates (I’ve been told).
John [219],
Luck is a residue of design.
Companies are trying to determine ways to cut cost. Here is an example of a company cutting frivolos expenditures.
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/marketwire/0452747.htm
Bullion River Gold Corp. (OTCBB: BLRV) announced today that it has filed a Form 15 with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) suspending its reporting obligations under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Upon the filing of the Form 15, the company’s obligation to file current and periodic reports, including Forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K will be suspended until the company’s total assets exceed $10 million and its shareholders of record exceed 500. In addition, the company’s common stock will cease trading on the OTC Bulletin Board. Due to the high cost of compliance under the securities laws, rules and regulations applicable to public companies, including the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, the company’s board of directors determined that it could no longer afford to remain a public company.
frivolous?
Is that the opening bell I hear?
PPT had a late Friday lunch. These guys worked hard yesterday. The market just wont let them relax.
A quant that codes in .net?
Isn’t that an oxymoron?
Anybody have a good article which details why FNM/FRE went bust.
I have a friend who keeps repeating the talking points about Mark-to-Market and CRA.
quant is a qualitative analist?
http://www.syssrc.com/html/museum/html/sims/javaslide/
I also need a quant who can use my on-line slide rule method of calculation.
Actually, this electronic slide rule brings back old memories.
Victorian,
A while back I listened to this radio episode by “This American Life” in which they put together a great talk show that goes into depth about the build up in the market that brought us to this point. It goes into some detail about FNM/FRE. I think it is a 1 hour radio broadcast.
http://www.thislife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=355
Click on “The Giant Pool of Money” or get a transcript of the broadcast.
“Anybody have a good article which details why FNM/FRE went bust.”
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0DE7DB153EF933A0575AC0A96F958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1
Paragraph 7 is the winner. Article is from 1999.
“In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980’s.”
#226 Stu
“And hot dates ”
As I said, cash transactions.
Yikes [193]
I hear you on the stubborn homeowners. The article this am, ‘trading down is the new Real Estate reality’ was of great interest because i do see 500k and 1m as very real barriers and status symbols. At my price point (500k) i see folks in nice towns with a very poor location or home and they cling to a price above that 500k mark for dear life. I think when/if this is popped we’ll see a lot more ‘ladder shifting’ if you will. my 2 cents.
Honestly, who in there fight mind codes in .net, if anything a quant person depending on their age is going to use fortran, C, or C++.
right mind
China bonds any takers?
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-11/14/content_7204128.htm
matlab, mathematica, sas, etc
I think Bush may start drinking again after G-20 summit.
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/33307
Umm, the process took too long? You and your idiot cronies have been wrong every step of the way. Why would you expect to be right this time?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Paulson-says-adding-bank-rb-13577989.html
“By the time the process with Congress was completed, it was clear we were facing a much worse situation than we had envisioned earlier on,” he said. “We have this limited pool of resources, big but limited … it just goes farther by purchasing capital,” he added.
I love it how the US financial markets are all to blame for this mess. It is not like you couldn’t see that we repealed the “no-gambling on wall street” laws or that your own property values were skyrocketing.
Its not like foreign economies were running hot with the excessess of capital floating around the world. Brazil is reporting 8% sustained growth per year? Honestly, was there no one watching the financial wheel in any of these countries?
Very true grim, for mathematical representation those languages are much better. If it needs to be production ready only SAS makes the cut, I would never depend on a program written in the other 2 to work reliably, matlab especially is very shaky for a 10k piece of software.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gas-prices-down-nearly-2-in-cnnm-13574900.html
Even as gas prices fall, demand has continued to slip. MasterCard’s weekly survey of gas station credit card swipes showed demand down 4.2% last week, compared to the same period last year.
It is pretty easy to get a hacked version of MatLab.
Stu (237)-
So did the government force FNM/FRE to relax lending standards?
Hacked or unhacked, it is an extremely unstable piece of software, also for complicated calculations it is an order of magnitude slower than java. The Student version was like $100 when I was in school hence the availability of hacked copies. One student buy the rest copy and it winds up on the network, etc.
Victorian,
The government put immense political pressure on FNM and FRE to relax lending standards at the same time these companies poured millions into ensuring that regulation stayed very light and cheap money flowed to them.
Chicken and the egg, FNM/FRE wanted no regulation and as a consequence they provided money and promises of more lending to subprime.
jcer,
Matlab treats things differently then most other mathmatics software. If you understand how it manipulates, stores, and interprets data you can almost always overcome the limitations.
It is also not multi-threaded so it cannot take advantage of multiple processors like other applications can. You can also overcome this limitation by programming properly and swaping out some base mathmatics routines on your computer.
“So did the government force FNM/FRE to relax lending standards?”
Absolutely. As well as the wealthy shareholders from the banks, the mortgage companies and the bond insurers who I’m sure were doing some serious lobbying of the government. It’s always the same game regardless of whom is in power. The rich get richer and the poor get a boot shoved up their *ss.
A while ago, I shared a story with all of you about a very close friend of my father who was the CEO and major owner of a rather large mortgage lender who went belly up in 2007. The day after they declared bankruptcy, my father called his friend to ask how he was doing now that his company had folded. My dad said that he said he is fine and everyone in the company will probably not have to work another day for a very long time. He said the money they made over the last 3 years was equal to what they made in the 15 years prior. My dad then asked who is at fault for the subprime crisis. The CEO said the government pushed hard for them to lend to those they knowingly knew would default. The CEO even said that the mortgage industry warned the government of the dangers. Now you all know that I am pretty liberal, but I trust both my father and the words of his friend.
We are all now paying for the excesses of the wealthy. We should provide them with a tax cut so they can do it all over again, no?
Anyone looking for a cheap jet?
Eclipse workers sent home without pay
The Business Review (Albany) – by Pam Allen
Eclipse Aviation Corp. executives assured Albany International Airport CEO John O’Donnell that their business will continue, but offered no other explanation about the company’s present condition.
The Albuquerque, N.M.-based builder of small jets told as many as 1,400 workers Thursday that the company could not cut checks for the bi-weekly pay period that ended on Nov. 12. Two dozen workers employed at Eclipse’s maintenance hangar at the Albany airport also were sent home. A few were working at the site Friday.
http://www.bizjournals.com/albany/stories/2008/11/10/daily51.html
Wonder if Booya Bob’s picked up one of these toys on the cheap?
Where is Booyah?
That dude was really smart. I doubt he is buying yet.
Looks like the PPT left early for the weekend ;)
Looks like they sent workers home, they are leasing their hanger space out, and stopped ordering parts for manufacturing overpriced planes.
Seems simple enough to me, going out of buisness…
Nicholas/258-
Yep. That simple. Don’t think there will be as much jetting around as the last 5-6 years.
Plus, really sucks to work for two weeks at no pay…
OK, So FNM/FRE bought MBS with looser lending standards. But still their portfolio is not as bad as lets say Countrywide.
“Over 98 percent of Fannie’s loans were paying timely during 2008.[49] Both Fannie and Freddie had positive net worth as of the date of the takeover, meaning the value of their assets exceeded their liabilities. However, Fannie’s total assets to capital (leverage ratio) was about 20:1, while Freddie’s was about 70:1.[50][51] These numbers increase significantly if one includes all of the mortgage-backed assets they guaranteed”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_takeover_of_Fannie_Mae_and_Freddie_Mac#Credit_Default_Swaps
Stupid Question -How is the leverage generated?
If only 2% of their loans were delinquent, then no way they should be going bankrupt. The leverage is what killed them.
Can anyone explain to me in simple terms how this leverage thing worked in terms of FNM/FRE. What side bets were used?
I really hope that the current trend in oil prices are not a predictor of the demand destruction to come, but are simply speculators overshooting the bottom.
If the analysts were seriously predicting $150-$200 per barrel rates a few months ago, then they were off by 300 to 400%.
Deep down inside, I know that markets are rational. This $50/barrel oil prices really has me concerned.
Another one getting in line for the handout.
Struggling insurer Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. announced plans to convert to savings-and-loan status and said it will buy Federal Trust Corp. for $10 million.
The move, which also Hartford applying to be part of the Treasury Department’s $250 billion capital-injection effort, marks the company’s biggest attempt to stem the crisis of confidence afflicting it and other life insurers.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122669572686429263.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo
Understood, matlab plays a huge role and is very useful for certain things mainly matrix algebra, discreet signals, control systems, etc. it serves a purpose but I still would hardly call it reliable. In designing systems it can be an invaluable tool(Esp for signal analysis+linear algebra), but in and of it self should not be in any production system. Typically when I used it, I used it to prototype, then I implemented the design in either Verilog or VHDL(Either for FPGA or to be build as an IC), or in software using C.
Very true grim, for mathematical representation those languages are much better.
Different tools for different problems, I agree.
Just saying, I don’t know many quants that code in .Net. Web developers? That’s another story.
Hi all,
Could someone indulge me with the address for mls # 2844040? I noticed it’s for rent, too… Thanks in advance.
This whole S*L thing is getting out of hand. Where are the deposits going to come from. How many major banks do we need and how are they ever going to make money once off the dole when they are forced to compete with each other.
My forecast is getting gloomier and gloomier.
And have a wonderful weekend ya’all!
If anybody has started noticing –
commodities are holding their own amidst the carnage.
Looks like nobody wants to go long over the weekend.
What I really really really like about the stock market crash is I don’t have to listen to those “work life balance” nuts anymore.
“I don’t know many quants to code in .Net. Web developers? ”
Frank specifically said ASP.Net. I questioned him, no reply.
If the analysts were seriously predicting $150-$200 per barrel rates a few months ago, then they were off by 300 to 400%.
Deep down inside, I know that markets are rational. This $50/barrel oil prices really has me concerned
There is no way oil should be $150-$200 per bbl in the near term, even with a strong economy. The marginal cost of production was closer to $80 at the peak, which is much closer to a rational price.
I think we saw an oil bubble emerge as commodites, for a while, appeared to be the only safe haven for investors as other markets declined.
So, if we combine demand destruciton and a bit of an overshoot, $50 per bbl oil is not that crazy. I wouldn’t be suprised if we see a 4 handle.
Now long term, I think there is a much more bullish future for oil as inflation and increased global demand come into play.
Renting…I hope you are right.
ASP.net
Real time, web based loss projection for clients?
Paulson is 5th in line for the Presidency. He’d have to turn it down, as President, you are technically accountable.
Rep. Darrell Issa grills Cash & Carry about the lies.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZzqp_Ty-kI
Renting/271-
A couple of years ago, I was having lunch with someone who works extensively in the Middle East, his comment was “…anything over $60 a barrel, oil producers are making profits.”
I was in shock when it was around $150. That was roughly $90/barrel of profit!
My significant other just told me about an ex-coworker she was just in touch with. Says that she and her new husband just bought a home with no money down, and the husband’s credit was so bad that they paid someone to “bump it” up for a few months.
I thought this stuff was over with?
well blokes..
just got back from a week long Canada trip to visit my ol’ friend “splitting the sky”.
good times, good times man.
I really enjoy catching up with people, and talking over a glass of scotch.
SAS
for those who remember Attica, you will recognize “STS”.
SAS
Make not sure if you posted this but it is hilarious
First Call of the Crisis: Peter Schiff Could Be Video of the Year
http://seekingalpha.com/article/106079-first-call-of-the-crisis-peter-schiff-could-be-video-of-the-year
# Frank Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 8:41 am
Abercrombie & Fitch is the one with a line all day long.
are you really foolish enough to just know that because there are people in a store, it doesnt necessarily mean they are buying?
abercrombie (a racist company, btw) is just for the scene. i haven’t set foot in that dump in at least five years and i never will.
John…sorry man….
From Dec 2008 Money Magazine:
Amex and other major credit card companies are canceling or cutting back credit lines for people charging at certain “at risk” credit profile vendors including: bars, massage parlors, billiard halls, nightclubs, marriage counselors.
HEHEHE Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 5:31 pm
First Call of the Crisis: Peter Schiff Could Be Video of the Year
HEHEHE: ABSOLUTE NOTHING PERSONAL….I already stated an opinion that Schiff has jumped the shark….so f— this m—–f—–, and watch your wallet when he speaks. I can feel him reaching for it through the Internet, along with that boisterous preacher of finance Mike Morgan.
I’m pumped…..everyone has left the office for the weekend and I am blasting this in the background as I type….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mm2eT-sTVys
Also there is a one-page throwaway interview with David Walker about IOUSA in McMoney McMagazine also…
276….Shoulda bombed the life outta Saudis after 9/11………..taken over their wells……..problem solved.
Essex,
how is that learning curve going?
SAS
by your last post, looks like you are walking backwards.
SAS
It’s like the Boss says…”two step up and two steps back…”
Just an OPEC Thought of the Day.
#277 glenn: I find that hard to believe.
Chifi –
If you are still there in the office, I would really appreciate it if you could shed some light on what FNM/FRE were leveraged on, if you can.
I am tired of this friend droning on about how FNM/FRE were forced to lend to poor people, the CRA, and that lead to them collapsing. BTW, he works at FRE.
Meanwhile, I continue my research.
re 264
Quant software
What difference does it make what language you use when the entire model is based on a delusion?
“Fox Business: Gerald Celente Predicts Revolution 11/10/08”
http://tinyurl.com/576zb4
They mentioned that before 2012:
1. America will be the first undeveloped country
2. Revolution, food shortages, riots, marches
3. Food instead of gifts for Christmas
#67 gary,
Can you ask grim for my email? I know a few IT recruiters and can forward them your resume.
For the crowd.
It seems TAF and TARP and stealth tax cuts for the banks have failed so far based upon the capitulation of Klink this week.
How about a new deal, cut personal income tax to ZERO.
That would do more for morale which is sorely needed at this point and add more dollars directly to the real main street economy. It is only 1.5 trillion. Think about what could be done with that money and the goodwill it would generate.
I would be the first to spend my new largess due to ZERO Federal individual income tax on a new home.
Cheers,
Sean
I’m ahead of the curve- I’ve been giving homemade food gifts at Christmas for years!
We just stuck our toe in the real estate pond. We bid on a short sale. House was bought in 2003 and mortgaged for almost 3 times the purchase price by 2005 and the “homeowners” took that money to buy another house. Both properties are in lis pendens forclosure. The property is listed for less than 1/2 the mortgage amount and we lowballed that by 35% with an all cash bid.
I asked the agent if the lender was aware of the listing price and she said “You bet” and said the homeowners, the wife being an attorney, are suing the lender, Countrywide, for preditory lending!!!
Sorry if this has already been posted…
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/11/your_mortgage_problems_they_co.html
BC (153)-
Terrific!!!
The PRK players will freeze up big time in the final. Those guys are watched every minute of every day by multiple minders.
I’ve seen their womens’ teams play a lot. The bigger the game, the more mechanical they play.
vic (150)-
Sorta/kinda. There are pressures to the up and to the down side, and they are disorganized and panic-based. The really crazy thing is, the big chunks of money are on the sidelines, and the momentum is being dictated by small gangs of speculators.
Fundamentals are completely out the window. Buy and hold? More like buy and die. Every day is the Wild West.
That being said, I’m enjoying it tremendously. As long as I can come up with some sort of plan- and stick to it- things come out okay in the end. There have certainly been more than a few moments where my discipline has wavered and I’ve been pissing myself, though.
“End the Fed”
http://endthefed.us/index.php
grim (122)-
Amazing. Most analysts figured Realogy would make it until March before violating their debt covenants. Guess things were an eensy bit worse than they first believed.
Debt swap? Fcuking amazing. Appropriate that these dopes are trying their own version of a cash-out second mortgage…against an entity that has negative value. None of their bondholders will get near that dirty bomb.
Anybody catch the CEO of Century 21 on CNBC today? He was wearing a yellow jacket and a name badge. Everybody in my office was screaming at him to go bugger Suzanne.
That’s great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane –
Lenny Bruce is not afraid. Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn –
world serves its own needs, regardless of your own needs. Feed it up a knock,
speed, grunt no, strength no. Ladder structure clatter with fear of height,
down height. Wire in a fire, represent the seven games in a government for
hire and a combat site. Left her, wasn’t coming in a hurry with the furies
breathing down your neck. Team by team reporters baffled, trump, tethered
crop. Look at that low plane! Fine then. Uh oh, overflow, population,
common group, but it’ll do. Save yourself, serve yourself. World serves its
own needs, listen to your heart bleed. Tell me with the rapture and the
reverent in the right – right. You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright
light, feeling pretty psyched.
It’s the end of the world as we know it.
It’s the end of the world as we know it.
It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.
doom and gloom of the day…
who still thinks the US is not bankrupt?
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/trade_budget_deficit.png
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/fed_all.png
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/fed_all_short_stacked.png
Yikes (171)-
Some Krugs, nothing major. The price of physical got away from me too fast when the big move happened.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_47/b4109070638235.htm?campaign_id=rss_null
http://www.cjr.org/the_audit/this_is_the_end.php
something to think about:
Andrew Mellon’s plan had four main points:
Cut the top income tax rate from 77 to 25 percent
Cut taxes on low incomes
Reduce the Federal Estate tax
Efficiency in government
your lips to realtors’ ears …
so eager to see the new bond movie tomorrow.
see you in the bread line with the Lemon brothers..
“Fidelity to cut 1,700 jobs in 2nd round of layoffs”
http://tinyurl.com/6olejv
Dow V Gold chart that BC Bob referred to earlier today…
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SR4_ScfIiaI/AAAAAAAAA2A/BXYs8lSznvo/s1600-h/Gold+V+Dow+1931+to+present(2).bmp
victorian Says:
November 14th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
Chifi – If you are still there in the office, I would really appreciate it if you could shed some light on what FNM/FRE were leveraged on, if you can. I am tired of this friend droning on about how FNM/FRE were forced to lend to poor people, the CRA, and that lead to them collapsing. BTW, he works at FRE. Meanwhile, I continue my research.
Vic: Just remember that FNM/FRE were in tatters even before any of this nonsense happened. The crews over there did not have the quantitative training to handle the book of interest exposure and derivatives that they issued and wrote. Then they reverse engineered their results to ensure that they hit earnings targets so their executives received bonuses….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franklin_Raines
The droning friend is ultimately completely wrong, because my understanding (clot or other please correct me) the “forced to lend to poor people” really wasn’t the business these guys were conducting. Instead, it was more a matter of incompetence with these guys versus greed with the non-GSE competitors.
sas,
Save a spot in that line;
“Citigroup Job Cuts Could Reach 35,000: Source”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27722162
Shore – Montclair Restaurant Report – Big thumbs up to Greek Taverna. Amazing food…and parking too.
I’ve been calling it for sometime now:
Just like back in the 70s.
An ounce of gold will buy the DOW.
we were on a crew that smuggled metals out of southeast asia, from south east asia govts & big wigs. It was a nasty & tight gig at times. But, I needed the jack at the time.
Funny, once we were done, gold miraculously shot up in price. And our superiors hit the jack pot. Oddly, I never knew who our “superiors” were all that time.
SAS
and I still have no idea where they stashed all that delivery.
Because we delivered through Arkansas & down south alot of times. Passed off to Dixie Mafia. I come to find out the we were running with the Dixie Mafia, and I didn’t even know it.
(and I also didn’t know, that someone was packing powders along with our delivery..right under our noses)
ok, enough about that.
back to RE.
SAS
a little math:
Fannie and Freddie’s combined losses, 3Q08, are $54 billion. At its 2005-06 peak, the total value of US residential real estate was estimated to be $23 trillion. Per Case/Shiller, it has lost at least 22%, or $5 trillion to date.
And now the government wants them to buy 500 billion more in residential mortgages each year…..
For the 2008 budget year, which ended on Sept. 30, the deficit totaled a record $454.8 billion
who is going to loan us this 1/2 trillion dollars? the last 2 treasury actions were a joke, only about 10% sold
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/salinasprice/2008/images/1106.jpg
it looks like debt may have stopped being added at any significant rate.
Fannie’s net worth, or the difference between assets and liabilities, tumbled to $9.4 billion as of Sept. 30 from $44.1 billion at Dec. 31. The Washington-based company said Nov. 10 that the number may be negative by the end of the year. Freddie’s net worth stood at a negative $13.7 billion at the end of the quarter.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/14/business/14freddie.php
“who is going to loan us this 1/2 trillion dollars?”
tax, borrow, or print.
bye bye capital as it goes overseas to find a new home.
there goes economic stability out the window.
Next up, political stability.
will that go out the window too?
If you have kids, lets hope not.
or you best get yourself a firearm.
SAS
U.S. Treasuries Fall After Investors Shun 30-Year Bond Auction: ‘Too Many Unknowns’
Treasuries fell, led by 30-year bonds, after investors shunned the government’s $10 billion sale of the securities amid concern that U.S. debt sales will grow. The bonds drew a yield about 9 basis points above the level in pre-auction trading. At 4.31 percent, it was still the lowest since regular sales of the security began in 1977. Investors have been favoring shorter-term debt, which serves as a haven in times of turmoil and a bet the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates. The U.S. sold $34 billion in four-week bills yesterday at the lowest rate on record.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2WHNte3YFL4&refer=home
SAS,
the question is, do we make it to Xmas 09 before unrest starts?
“the question is, do we make it to Xmas 09 before unrest starts?”
i think so.
because omama is giving people some false sense of “change”. the sheep will go along with it for a little while.
Until they realize, the only thing that “changed” was the paint job.
SAS
HSBC may be forced to repossess its own home
The banking giant HSBC is considering repossessing its own Canary Wharf headquarters, as it holds talks with the troubled Spanish property company that owns the building. Metrovacesa, which bought the building from HSBC for more than £1bn in a sale and leaseback agreement in 2007, is facing increasing financial difficulties and looks unable to service the debt it raised from HSBC itself to buy the skyscraper.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/hsbc-may-be-forced-to-repossess-its-own-home-1018080.html
SAS,
dont forget a dog. Most people are more hesitant to be a nuance when there is a large dog in the house
SAS,
when do you see it falling apart?
sheep say:
o baaaaaaah maa
o baaaaaaah maa
are any of you sheep out there? being controlled & herded.
SAS
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/14/world/asia/14china.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=all
“There’s very serious damage being done down there, I don’t deny it, and I think it’ll get worse because we haven’t seen the full impact of the economic downturn in Europe,” said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Dragonomics, an economic research and advisory firm based in Beijing. “I think next year we might see export growth in the country as a whole go down to 0 percent.” The export sector is still growing but has slowed considerably; year-on-year growth was at 9 percent in October compared with 26 percent in September 2007, Mr. Kroeber said. The social problems arising from the slowdown have stirred anxiety in the top leadership of the Communist Party, whose legitimacy is based on maintaining economic growth. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao is pushing for policies that will increase domestic consumer consumption to wean China off its reliance on exports
“when do you see it falling apart?”
noone can predict.
as the good book says “like a thief in the night”
I do know this, if I start seeing foreign troops ashore to “protect assets” or “to help with terrorism”
I am gone to my escape route.
SAS
hence, be on the look out for false flag terrorism.
SAS
don’t forget,
the jewish people originally welcomed the nazi soliders to their towns. (for the most part)
but then, we know the rest of the story.
these type of pots boil slowly.
being in military and selling hardware, thankfully I can smell when something is rotten in Denmark.
so far, I’m a cool cat. but eyes & ears are wide open, thats for damn sure.
SAS
Coming to a walmart near you….
Poverty, Pension Fears Drive Japan’s Elderly Citizens to Crime
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=as80aWlHdA1M&refer=home
SAS,
foriegn troops or false flag events will be very obvious to some. not to sheep. The PTB only care about the sheep, not us unless you make a racket….
well all,
its time to hit the sack.
I’m picking up one of my grandkids tomorrow morning. We are going out for some hot chcolate, then… I will take him to the Catholic church parking lot and whip shittys with the BMW till that priest, Mont Senior, calls the cops on us again.
lol.
I’m really not a good role model.
but we have a blast!
SAS
“foriegn troops or false flag events will be very obvious to some”
I’m talking chatter before its obvios.
I didn’t spend all those years making enemies. I got alot of friends too.
and I occasioanly “call favors”
:)
night bloke!
SAS
http://images.businessweek.com/ss/08/11/1113_what_500k_buys/10.htm
Thought you would all enjoy the slide show…
“How Much Home You Can Buy for $500,000.”
I just got a paypal coupon for 15% off a purchase of $100 or less on ebay.
I kind of doubt I would have gotten that if things were going well.
337 Bairen
I hope I get that coupon. I could use it.
I’m surprised if things aren’t going well. They changed the fee structures and are taking so much when it comes to selling, that between their fees and paypal fees (sister company) it’s not worth it to sell on there anymore.
Now I understand why the unions fight so hard for their fat labor contracts. Well, at least they support Big Pharma..
GM Spends $17 Million Per Year on Via*ra
“Lifestyle drugs — chiefly Via*ra — are costing General Motors $17 million dollars a year and the cost is passed along to car, truck and SUV consumers. The blue pill is covered under GM’s labor agreement with United Auto Workers, as well as benefit plans for salaried employees. GM executives estimate health care adds $1,500 to the price of each vehicle but they do not break out how much of the premium is caused by ere*tile dysfunction expenses. GM provides health care for 1.1 million employees, retirees and dependents and is the world’s largest private purchaser of Via*ra.”
Consumer Affairs.com
Bridgewater employees receive WARN notices.
Bridgewater warns employees of possible layoffs
by Ralph R. Ortega/Star-Ledger
Thursday November 13, 2008, 12:04 PM
Bridgewater Township’s 230 municipal employees have received a notice warning them of possible layoffs because of expected budgetary constraints, officials said today.
A township ordinance requires a 45-day notice sent to all employees in anticipation of layoffs, said Township administrator James Naples, who released the statement to all employees Wednesday.
“It’s a preliminary step we’ve taken because of the economic climate, said Naples.
The township has no projected number for how many employees could be let go.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/11/bridgewater_warns_employees_of.html
“Amazing food and parking too”
Parking, a big plus.
Lets say someone renting and working in NJ gets laid off and finds a job out of state.
What happens to the lease? Do we have to still pay rent until end of lease term?
Thanks.
Gator Shore – “Amazing food – and parking, too.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/G20-says-Let-people-eat/story.aspx?guid=%7B16890CA0%2D2787%2D4576%2DA125%2DBDF4F1697E1B%7D
Here’s some more “amazing” food – and California wines as well….
(I think the Landmark is out of Kenwood, Sonoma… I know the Shafer is Napa.)
nj rebear,
you can walk away from the lease, but the landlord will keep your deposit
342 Shore – You better believe it. I’d still go back even without the parking. It was really good. And packed. Greek Delights could be in trouble.
Cindy 344 – One of the wineries we visited on our trip – Rochioli have had their wines served at many state dinners. Check them out. They are really good.
“An ounce of gold will buy the DOW.”
sas,
Very bullish.
I’m actually targeting 2-1. However, I’ll take 1-1. Funny, 80% of those on this site will call you/me idiots/clowns/grenade holders. That’s fine, I rode a trend while they are sitting with paper that is 30,40, 50% or more off its high. Go figure. I would suggest the naysayers read up on cycles/trends.
chi (313)-
There was, indeed, an element of forced lending to the “underserved”. Remember that Shrub’s “Ownership Society” was an executive mandate, aimed right at both the agencies. However, at its core, you are exactly right. Incompetence and self-dealing at its finest.
(347) Gator – “Rochioli”…I’ll pass that along (I don’t buy wine – but I know those who do.) Thanks
BC (314)-
At what point will C become like the little credit union down the street from me?
One thing I know for sure: that little credit union is run by real bankers and they’re growing that place like crazy.
sas (317)-
Ever been through Mena, Arkansas?
i found this hilarious. and scary. i assume you live in a city? I’m just glad we got out of NYC 7 months ago. when the s*it hits the fan there … scary stuff.
i do feel much safer out here in slow, docile, bucks county.
Folks – In the comment section of the MarketWatch post @344 – there is a guy going on about the Global Digital Currency Assoc. and Cache digital wallets – ASB Bank…
What is up with all of that?
vodka (326)-
The bull terrier is an excellent breed for this job. They look ferocious, but are mostly big creampuffs.
Family dog + menacing profile. Can’t beat it.
Anyone up for a GTG at Jose Tejas in Iselin?
It’s packed at night but not too bad for a noon lunch or 4 PM dinner on a saturday.
njrebear Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 8:54 am
“Lets say someone renting and working in NJ gets laid off and finds a job out of state.
What happens to the lease? Do we have to still pay rent until end of lease term?”
Most leases require a certain amount of notice to break, many require the tenant to pay until the landlord can find another tenant.
Regardless – it beats paying the mortgage on a house for another few years, taking a bath on selling price or renting out for a loss. When flexibility is required, renters have it best.
jamil (340)-
As usual, you’re 18 months late and a rupee short.
That little tidbit was exposed here long ago.
Congress must immediately bail out Detroit and make unions mandatory everywhere. Job Banks and lifestyle drugs for everybody is the future!
“If you’ve followed developments in the auto industry at any time during the past couple couple decades, you’ve probably heard of GM’s “Jobs Bank.” This nausea-inducing scam was the concoction of the UAW in the 1980s. Rather than allow GM to layoff workers when conditions warranted, the UAW had GM assign workers to the Jobs Bank, where they were paid almost full wages and benefits NOT to work.
Alas, the Jobs Bank became little more than a casino and lounge, where workers would report for a full day of leisure, reading newspapers, playing cards, and generally not adding value to GM’s vehicles. (Sounds a bit like my job description, actually.) Now you know why a handle falls off or you hear a tinny sound when you slam your Chevy’s door.”
A Cancer on the Big Three
# Clotpoll Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 9:47 am
“vodka (326)-
The bull terrier is an excellent breed for this job. They look ferocious, but are mostly big creampuffs.
Family dog + menacing profile. Can’t beat it.”
Agreed. Had an Argentinian mastiff/Amstaff mix for 12 years. Terrified everyone, including cops. Kids could smack him around without fear and friends could walk in freely. Miss him.
In the UK, when someone is robbed the number one recommendation they receive from police in order to prevent a second robbery (thieves come back for the new replacement stuff) is to get a dog.
Whitehead sees slump worse than Depression
“The economy faces a slump deeper than the Great Depression and a growing deficit threatens the credit of the United States itself, former Goldman Sachs chairman John Whitehead, said at the Reuters Global Finance Summit on Wednesday.
Whitehead, 86, said the prospect of worsening consumer credit woes combined with an overtaxed federal government make him fear that the current slump is far from over.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/Finance08/idUSTRE4AB7HT20081112
Sorry if this is a repost. This is a former Goldman CEO. Whose book is he talking?
rebar (343)-
I suggest consulting an attorney, but from a practical standpoint, breaking your lease is 100% breach of contract.
OTOH, the law also compels the landlord to attempt to mitigate his loss (i.e., find another tenant) before going after the departed tenant to be made whole.
In my local experience, I’ve never seen a landlord go after a tenant who skips on the lease, because it’s easier, faster and cheaper to just get another tenant.
re: Buffet
How come none of the Buffet lovers are applying his basic tenant – where some see fear, i see opportunity – to GOLD RIGHT NOW?
Sent a list of 10 new foreclosures (well, new to us) in the area to two real estate agents this week, asking for them to do some digging on them.
Clot – do agents not like selling a foreclosure to a client? Just curious because they seem to be dragging their feet on this.
Jamil (358)-
The hypocrisy is unbelievable. Bail out all Wall Street crooks all you want, but when it comes to the manufacturing sector – let them eat cake. Wall St Bonuses are fine, but union healthcare is evil.
I do not condone any bailouts, but if there is a choice between derivative trading Wall St, and the manufacturing sector – Manufacturing provides more value to this country.
I would think that we have firmly established that the fantasy “services”- based economy we have had for the past decade or so is just that – a fantasy.
this is the dog that terrifies people?
http://images.google.com/images?q=bull+terrier&ie=UTF-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&um=1&sa=X&oi=image_result_group&resnum=1&ct=title
i simply googled ‘bull terrier’
im not really a dog guy. i wonder – do many people have alarms here on their house? i wont move into the house we buy without one.
vic: “Manufacturing provides more value to this country.”
No, Detroit does not provide any value to this country (at least any more than Soviet factories were “providing value” in the 1980s). Detroit is a benefit distributor which makes lousy cars on the side.
Modern companies (Toyota etc) are providing value. They can manufacture good cars in the US, make profit and offer good jobs. The only difference is that they do not have unions.
Let GM go bankrupt and new company with new labor contract to emerge.
“Let GM go bankrupt and new company with new labor contract to emerge”
– I agree with this 100%. Shouldn’t the same principle apply to financial companies? Why the double standard? That is the point I am arguing.
brooks had a pretty solid take on the Big 3 here
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/14/opinion/14brooks.html?em
it’s sad that the labor unions have this much clout. why not just let them file for bankruptcy? i haven’t heard one argument against that yet.
Grim,
This week’s report from the hinterlands…
Hunterdon County Comp Killers
GSMLS recorded 10 sales and 40 new listings this week. One sale and four new listings made this list:
MLS#: 2492642
30 MAPLE CT.
Raritan Twp
SLD: 08/28/06 $332,000
OLP: 02/24/08 $349,900
SLD: 11/10/08 $306,000
DOM: 176
FUTURE Comp Killers:
MLS#: 2601976
3 CAVALIER CT
East Amwell Twp
SLD: 03/28/06 $722,500
OLP: 11/12/08 $719,900
DOM: 3
MLS#: 2602183
102 Spruce Hills Dr
Glen Gardner Boro
SLD: 11/01/05 $217,500
OLP: 11/13/08 $182,900
DOM: 2
MLS#: 2600601
14 MYRTLE AVE
Lebanon Boro
SLD: 05/12/05 $579,900
OLP: 11/09/08 $574,900
DOM: 6
MLS#: 2602347
704 NOTTINGHAM WAY
Raritan Twp
SLD: 01/28/05 $170,000
OLP: 11/13/08 $146,000
DOM: 2
Chifi, Thanks RE: Fannie/Freddie
Here is what I found by digging. This article is from 2003.
“Fannie Mae once mainly insured mortgages held by other financial institutions against default, a steady but unglamorous business. But in the last decade, it has steadily increased the quantity of mortgages it holds instead of selling to other investors.
To buy those mortgages, Fannie Mae raises money by selling bonds. It makes money on the spread between the interest it receives on the mortgages and the interest it must pay on its debt.
That business plan seems relatively safe, since people typically do not default on their mortgages. But it has a hidden risk. Because homeowners have the right to prepay mortgages if interest rates fall, mortgages rise in value more slowly than Treasury bonds when rates drop. But they lose value more quickly than bonds when rates rise.
So Fannie Mae can lose money on its portfolio whether rates rise or fall. If the change in interest rates is gradual, then Fannie Mae will lose less money from the change than it makes on the rate spread between mortgages and the debt it has issued. But if rates change quickly, Fannie Mae can lose billions of dollars almost overnight.
The models provided by the former employee offer a glimpse of the risk that Fannie Mae takes and the leverage it uses to increase its profit at times when interest rates are relatively stable. Fannie Mae has more than $50 in debt for each $1 in equity capital, according to its most recent annual report. ”
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9A07E5DD1731F934A3575BC0A9659C8B63&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1
vic: I would not mind if financial companies were to go bankrupt (some went under already and many lost their jobs) and I too hate the ludicrous bonuses for taking massive risks.
Anyway, as you probably know, the purpose of bailing out some WS firms was to prevent the whole economy collapsing, ie allow banks to continue lending to small companies, corporations (ie payroll) and others. This is a worthy goal.
Bailing out GM and their unions just keep them unhealthy and makes things worse for their domestic rivals (who are doing things right).
First it was only state of California..
Now Reuters reports that Philadelphia, Phoenix and Atlanta are asking U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to release funds from the $700 billion financial bailout authorized by Congress last month.
If we bail out 98% of the population, I would hate to be in the 2%..
“allow banks to continue lending to small companies, corporations (ie payroll) and others”
– The banks are not lending to anybody, they are hoarding cash, building capital and using it for mergers and acquisitions. If they were lending, then why does the FED have to issue edicts for them to lend?
This was the financial equivalent of the Iraq war intelligence. Paulson has now done an about face on TARP. Inspite all of the experts telling him that TARP was not the way to go, he scared Congress into approving it.
vic: They are lending. Even the company I work for (with perfect credit rating and lots of cash) had panic mode recently when it seemed that we cannot get short-term loans to pay for the everyday costs (payroll etc). Pretty much all companies (even cash-rich profitable ones) finance their day to day operations via short-term loans.
Now that problem has been fixed. Banks are probably more conservative with their lending, but at least the full collapse was avoided.
Things really got gloomy here since last night.
A GTG in Jose Tejas would be the perfect anecdote to the doom and gloom.
Come on people, a good GTG is way, way, way overdue.
kettle, clot, lisoosh –
Thanks for the suggestion.
clot –
My landlord is a loser. His sole marketing technique is a 2 line description of the property on craigslist.
lisoosh – Yeap. Its a good thing we are house poor.
kettle – If my landlord wants full rent until lease end then i’ll pull the plug.
356 Bairen
I’ll be in the area but I don’t know if I can talk DH into going.
375 Stu
Agreed.
“Let GM go bankrupt and new company with new labor contract to emerge.”
Jamil,
Wow, a first. I’m in agreement.
They are simply a union conglomerate/parasite which happens to produces cars, which are not competitive, on the side. Bankruptcy laws were written for this. Blow them out and start anew. Otherwise, its just a sinking, black hole which will continually devour taxpayer $.
yikes – My dog looked a lot like a really big pit bull. Very friendly and sweet though, we had him from when he was a puppy and he was properly trained.
However, the value of dogs for security is mostly due to the fact that they make noise.
Alarm wires can be cut. A barking dog will wake up a whole household, may bite and will be difficult to control. Even a yappy poodle can fulfil that function.
There are two rental complexes near me. One allows dogs, one doesn’t. The one that allows dogs has seen 2 break-ins in 15 years (I know the Manager). The next door complex suffers them constantly.
Most break-ins are opportunistic. They go for the easy target.
kettle [319],
Exactly. I stated awhile back that the new bull market will be treasury supply. Well the rest of the world have their own problems to deal with.
There are 3 options;
1) Sell at the treasury auctions
-Well recent auctions have been abysmal, to say the very least.
2) Raise taxes
-In a deep recession, mini depression?
3) Fed prints and monetizes debt
-The clear cut winner. Watch, future, for the fed to be very active in open market operations. Do I smell inflation down the road?
bob 381 wrt inflation: who cares. I always wanted to retire as a billionaire. Soon it is within my reach!
lisoosh Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 11:29 am
yikes – My dog looked a lot like a really big pit bull. Very friendly and sweet though, we had him from when he was a puppy and he was properly trained.
However, the value of dogs for security is mostly due to the fact that they make noise.
Alarm wires can be cut. A barking dog will wake up a whole household, may bite and will be difficult to control. Even a yappy poodle can fulfil that function.
While i understand your dog logic, and like it, please do not play the “wires can be cut” logic. Come on, man. Wires cut triggers an instant alarm at the homebase (whatever company you’re working with), and a call goes out to the cops, immediately.
i would put a dog right there with the ‘club’ on cars – it’s enough of deterant that you’ll move on. i would guess an alarm on a car is a step above that.
i just can’t, for the life of me, deal with walking a dog in the cold or the rain, and picking up sh*t, constantly. not to mention the chores like taking hte dog out before a night on the town, or what to do when going on vacation, and all that other stuff. one of my relatives has a great dog, though. like it a lot.
just not in my makeup. i’ll probably balk at a lot of dirty diapers, too.
I just saw a house in Sayreville where I am looking, drop from $499,000 to $419,000 overnight. The house was built in 2004 and it is now listed a “Priced to Sell”. Maybe that is a sign of things to some in the Middlesex County area? I’m hoping that maybe by early next year or the spring things will finally be reasonable so I can get my house…. :)
A good GTG would be great. If we can’t get to jose tejas before Thanksgiving, might want to meet somewhere else. The weekend traffic in that area is brutal in December. (2 malls, near lots of highways)
grim,
sent you an email.
grim – post disappeared
A GTG in Jose Tejas would be the perfect anecdote to the doom and gloom.
Come on people, a good GTG is way, way, way overdue.
I agree, but I can’t make it out this weekend or next. I’ll be out of the country on business for a few days, coming back for Thanksgiving.
November 29th or 30th would be better for me.
grim – post disappeared
Was modded, released it back into the wild.
Jamil [382],
Something’s odd today? In agreement again! I don’t care either. As a matter of fact, I’m getting positioned for it. Bring it on.
A GM and Crysler rescue would cost at least $100 billion. They are massively insolvent.
However letting GM and Crysler fail would also mean massive aid to states like Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Wisconsin.
After Katrina Federal spending on rebuilding reached $114 billion, and they still aren’t done yet.
It might be cheaper to bail them out, because we aren’t going to let those states turn into Max Max after all there is allot of welding equipment and car parts to build stuff with. The surrounding states who would also have to defend themselves against invasion.
I would rather klink put the Tarp money to use and bailout 1/2 of the brands and get rid of the non performing ones.
Ultimate guard dog.
https://njrereport.com/images/spooky.jpg
San Jose mayor seeks slice of bailout pie
As cities around the United States start to scramble for a share of the $700 billion federal bailout package, San Jose Mayor Chuck Reed said Friday that he’s working with leaders of other large California cities to make sure they’re not left behind.
The stimulus package Congress passed last month wasn’t designed to dole out money to governments, so it’s far from clear whether San Jose will get a piece. But with $1.6 billion in unfunded retiree health care obligations, plus $500 million worth of local and regional road work to be done and $750 million in federal help sought to bring BART to the South Bay, Reed noted the city has a full slate of needs.
After meeting Friday with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the mayors of California’s largest cities to discuss budget issues, Reed said California mayors plan to present their own bailout wish list through the governor soon, after Schwarzenegger finishes dealing with the state budget meltdown.
Reed created a minor furor Friday when he told an Associated Press reporter he would seek 2 percent of the bailout, or $14 billion, for San Jose — an eye-popping figure, given that the city’s entire annual budget is $3.3 billion. Reed later told the Mercury News that his remark was “off the cuff,” and based on the fact that the city contributes more than 2 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product.
stu Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Things really got gloomy here since last night. A GTG in Jose Tejas would be the perfect anecdote to the doom and gloom.
Come on people, a good GTG is way, way, way overdue.
Joe Texas? I used to live across the highway from there for a year. Shopping traffic? As long as you stay away from South Route 1 from the GSP exit to Menlo it is better than you would suspect. Coming south use exit 131 and take Oak Tree/Green Street from Metropark area to US 1, cross over and make a right on the jug handle. 287? Skip US 1 north and drive all the way past the GSP and take the US 9 North exit. Once you pass the Hess Headquarters, look for the left exit for Green Street Iselin. At the traffic light, make a left and you are there….
That area of Woodbridge….Iselin north of Green Street was were I suggested that Tom should look for a manageable below $400K home with less than a 60 minute commute to NYC.
for those who are more visual learners (not that this is anything new):
http://tinyurl.com/5tyv3e
have a good weekend.
Can somebody here please provide me some contacts to media/newspaper reporters. There have been a steady rise of crime in woodbridge area and despite credible leads authorities have failed to punish the culprits. Maybe bad publicity will get them to react. I read star ledger, does anyone know a reporter there or maybe a local TV reporter ? You can also email me details at tom3000252001@yahoo.com
have a good weekend.
Sean 392: “It might be cheaper to bail them out,”
They would just continue their “business” as usual with unsustainable labor contracts and benefits. Bailout would make sense only if the labor contracts were rewritten to resemble those of modern companies (see Toyota in the US). Only way to get there is Chapter11.
tom: Be careful if you attempt to criticize local police. This may happen to you, too:
Unsuccessful efforts to uncover the identity of Internet bloggers critical of the Memphis Police Department and its top officers will cost the city $88,000.
The city filed suit in state court in an attempt to identify the people behind a Web site called MPD Enforcer 2.0, but the lawsuit was eventually dropped.
BC Bob,
The end game inflation is already baked into the cake…..
look at the following charts
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SPbLRqEJTZI/AAAAAAAAAts/R19-Wma1zMQ/s320/borrowed+reserves.bmp
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SPbBI2HjfvI/AAAAAAAAAtE/DU87DP5Qbbw/s320/consumer+debt.bmp
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/fed_all_short_term.png
“steady rise of crime in woodbridge”??
Do mean the Indians are robbing people? Or just harassing others?
Once debt destruction slows down in 1 -2 years, it will be a wild ride.
BC Bob 381,
the FED is already monetizing debt
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/fed_all_short_stacked.png
Chapter 11 can’t come soon enough for these overpaid parasites.
“COLUMBUS, Ohio – Even as Detroit’s Big Three teeter on collapse, United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger says workers will not make any more concessions”
Hey just curious. I don’t know a lot about the auto workers unions, what kind of pay/benefits do they get on average and how out of wack is it with the “private sector” (non union) not talking about 3rd world auto workers, but similar labor in the US?
Back to the Bad Old Days: Systemic Risk, Contagion and Trade Finance
http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/2008/11/systemic-risk-contagion-and-trade.html
Back in the old days (pre-1980s), the term systemic risk did not refer to contagion of illiquidity within the financial sector alone. Back then, when the real economy was much more important than low margin, unglamorous banking, it was understood that the really scary systemic risk was the risk of contagion of illiquidity from the financial sector to the real economy of trade in real goods and real services.
If you think of it, every single non-cash commercial transaction requires the intermediation of banks on behalf of – at the very least – the buyer and the seller. If you lengthen the supply chain to producers, exporters and importers and allow for agents along the way, the chain of banks involved becomes quite long and complex.
When central bankers back in the old days argued that banks were “special” – and therefore demanded higher capital, strict limits on leverage, tight constraints on business activity, and superior integrity of management – it was because they appreciated the harm that a bank failure would have in undermining the supply chain for business in the real economy for real people causing real joblessness and real hunger if any bank along the chain should be unable to perform…….
Gordon Brown warns US: saving car giants will ruin us all
In a veiled warning to the next American President, Gordon Brown described protectionism as the “road to ruin” yesterday as international tensions surfaced at the start of the G20 summit in Washington. As world leaders assembled for dinner at the White House last night at the start of the two-day meeting, the backdrop was one of plunging sales and surging unemployment. The New York stock market dropped 350 points after official data showed that US retail sales had fallen by 2.8 per cent in October, the biggest slide for 16 years.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5158583.ece
http://seekingalpha.com/article/105061-should-we-really-bail-out-the-big-three-automakers-with-73-20-per-hour-labor?source=front_page_most_popular_articles
Did anyone post this chart?
Paulson’s ‘Chump’ Kashkari May Ruin Christmas, Congressman Says
On Capitol Hill today, Neel Kashkari became the “chump” who stole Christmas. Kashkari, who oversees the Treasury’s $700 billion financial rescue plan, came under fire at a congressional hearing, notably by Maryland Democrat Elijah Cummings. Cummings was angry about reports American International Group Inc., which got an expanded $150 billion government bailout this week, is setting aside $503 million in compensation for executives.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aELLkr3l7JYk&refer=home
Barbara 407: “I don’t know a lot about the auto workers unions, what kind of pay/benefits do they get on average ”
See examples in this thread. There are no layoffs. Redundant people are sent to “Jobs Bank” (ie they come to “work” every day, spend a day in the lounge playing cards, not allowed to work, with full benefits, including all lifestyle drugs).
Some googling found this comparison:
“GM said its 38,000 U.S. salaried workers paid 27 percent of their total health care costs last year, while the company’s 119,000 U.S. hourly workers, largely covered by the UAW union contracts, paid 7 percent.
The average U.S. corporate employee pays 32 percent of the cost of his or her health care, GM said.”
So, health care benefits out of pocket costs: 7% for UAW vs 32% average US worker.
Obviously, no company can survive – even with annual bailouts – with this kind of extra costs.
Clot – House next door sold – $179,000. (My friend had offered 182,000 – don’t ask me???) Cash?
Anyway – It sold to someone WHO PLANS TO LIVE THERE! No more rental – whew.
The place does not have a tile roof or automatic garage door – newer paint etc. like mine but – I guess I have a new comp. for my place.
Now all three foreclosures on my street are occupied by folks who plan to live there – and no new foreclosures – yet.
Answering Barbara’s question from a USA Today article October 2007….
“It’s estimated that GM workers earn an average $73 an hour when benefits including health care and pensions are added in. That appears to be about $25 an hour more than Toyota’s U.S. workers.
Toyota and GM workers earn about the same hourly wages. Benefits are what push the UAW members ahead.”
$50 bucks an hour plus bennies, not to shabby for a high school level education.
An additional data point from the same article…
“Chrysler’s new CEO, Bob Nardelli, became a symbol of corporate excess when he left Home Depot early this year with a $210 million severance package. Ford’s new CEO, Alan Mulally, got $27.8 million in salary and bonus in his first few months on the job, including an $18.5 million signing bonus”
Excellent WSJ article about Detroit bailout.
Just Say No to Detroit
“Over the past decade, the capital destruction by GM has been breathtaking, on a greater scale than documented by Mr. Jensen for the 1980s. GM has invested $310 billion in its business between 1998 and 2007. The total depreciation of GM’s physical plant during this period was $128 billion, meaning that a net $182 billion of society’s capital has been pumped into GM over the past decade — a waste of about $1.5 billion per month of national savings. The story at Ford has not been as adverse but is still disheartening, as Ford has invested $155 billion and consumed $8 billion net of depreciation since 1998.
As a society, we have very little to show for this $465 billion.
If the government wants to spend $25 billion to protect auto workers, it would do better to transfer the money to them directly (perhaps by cutting each worker a check for $10,000) rather than by keeping their unproductive employer in business.
Second, it is suggested that the failures of the U.S. financial industry, which have cost us something like $700 billion, justify bailouts of other sectors of the economy. This makes no sense. If the government diverts our national savings into businesses that have long track records of destroying investment capital, eventually we’ll end up with an economy like France’s — or Zimbabwe’s.”
Yikes #193 –
What Bucks County town are you looking in?
#412
Thanks for all that information, reminds me of the NJ teacher’s unions benefits.
“Ever been through Mena, Arkansas?”
yup. before the days of Bill Clinton.
That was a major, DEA & Dixie major artery for a couple of years. Jaw dropping stuff.
Watch that movie “American Gangster”.
There is alot of truth to that.
Although, Mena was a different kettle of fish, the bottomline was the same.
The major flaw in that movie was that they made it out to look like a rogue element that did the dirty work.
But, in reality, it was procedure, and people were recruited, obviously you need the right kind of background to do that stuff.
and the money that generated, went right to Wall St.
but hey, what do I know. I’m just a bloke on the net :)
SAS
ketle [405],
Correct. I should have been clearer. I wasn’t talking about the liquidity facilities. The buyer of last resort, treas sec auctions.. Print, print and monetize debt.
yes, I do live in a city (Manhattan).
I have a residence in Bergen County, my daughter lives in one, and an x lives in the other, on my tab (don’t ask, its a long story).
about getting out of the city if the sh*t ever hit the fan, lets just say I have friends south of the border, and I ain’t talking Mexico.
SAS
anyone have a good recipe for clams?
in the mood for clams and Juanita is in Texas right now.
SAS
hmm..Brown is talking about the need for “global tax cut” in the economic summit.
Can’t argue with that..
“Brown is talking about the need for “global tax cut” in the economic summit”
I would like to see a tax cuts in the states.
People like to say “capital likes to look for the highest rate of return”. To me, that is only 1/2 true.
Capital always looks for a home. A home requires 2 things:
1) political stability
2) economic stability, we don’t want to have capital taken away from you in the form of high taxes. Otherwise, capital goes overseas to avoid taxes.
I support to cut taxes & cut govt.
Its really that simple.
SAS
sas: 423
Political stability is probably better in Europe or parts of Asia (ie threat of forced nationalization is smaller than in the US as they don’t have local congressmen demanding nationalizing of oil companies etc).
Also corporate tax rates are much lower outside of US. There are a lot of tax credits which makes the real US corporate tax rates a bit lower, but similar tax credits exist elsewhere, too (e.g. R&D credit, which is basically a scam – I know it all too well).
“In the OECD, Only Japan Taxes Corporate Income at a Higher Tax Rate than U.S.
The United States has the second-highest overall corporate income tax rate (39.3 percent combined federal and sub-federal) among all OECD countries (see Table 1). Japan (39.5 percent) and Germany (38.9 percent) have the first and third highest corporate income tax rates, respectively. The nation with the lowest corporate income tax rate in the OECD is Ireland (12.5 percent).”
http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/1466.html
My company studied whether to move the company the US, but based on various issues – including taxes and political risk – decided against it. We have top-execs here, but we are domiciled outside of US.
sas (418)-
I know more about Mena than I need- or want- to know.
My dad’s best friend got involved on the periphery of it somehow…and ended up a “suicide”.
Marcello & the New Orleans guys did the job.
“My dad’s best friend got involved on the periphery of it somehow…and ended up a “suicide”
doesn’t surprize me.
I know a case once, guy was found with hands tied behind the back, and cops & fed called it a suicide.
SAS
Thought he was helping bankroll Nicaraguan “freedom fighters”…
Cant speak for arkansas, but memphis has its fair share of suicides consisting of 2 shots to the back of the head.
Hey SL, how exactly does one shot himself in the back of the head twice?????
How likely is a sterling crisis or: is London really Reykjavik-on-Thames?
With the pound sterling dropping like a stone against most other currencies and long-term interest rates on UK sovereign debt beginning to edge up, this is a good time to revisit a suggestion I made earlier on a number of occasions (e.g. here, here and here), that there is a non-trivial risk of the UK becoming the next Iceland.
The risk of a triple crisis – a banking crisis, a currency crisis and a sovereign debt default crisis – is always there for countries that are afflicted with the inconsistent quartet identified by Anne Sibert and myself in our work on Iceland: (1) a small country with (2) a large internationally exposed banking sector, (3) a currency that is not a global reserve currency and (4) limited fiscal capacity.
The argument is simple. First consider the case where the banking sector is fundamentally solvent, in the sense that its assets, if held to maturity, would cover its liabilities. Iceland’s banks were supposed to have been in that position, although I have seen no verifiable information on the quality of the three formerly internationally active banks. There is no such thing as a safe bank, even if the bank is sound. Without an explicit or implicit government guarantee, there is always the risk of a bank run (a withdrawal of deposits or a refusal to renew maturing credit and to roll over maturing debt) or a sudden market seizure or ’strike’ in the markets for the bank’s assets bringing down a fundamentally sound bank.
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2008/11/how-likely-is-a-sterling-crisis-or-is-london-really-reykjavik-on-thames/
Iran switches reserves to gold – report
TEHRAN (Reuters) – Iran has converted financial reserves into gold to avoid future problems, an adviser to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in comments published on Saturday, after the price of oil fell more than 60 percent from a peak in July.
Iran, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, is under U.N. and U.S. sanctions over its disputed nuclear programme and is now also facing declining revenue from its oil exports after crude prices tumbled.
http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-36518320081115?rpc=401&
An interview..
The interviewer asked, ‘What is the fastest thing you know of?’ The first man replied, ‘A thought. It pops into your head, there’s no forewarning that it’s on the way; it’s just there. A thought is the fastest thing I know of.’ ‘That’s very good,’ replied the interviewer.
‘And now you, sir,’ he asked the second man. ‘Hmmm, let me see….. A blink!,’ said the second man. ‘It comes and goes and you don’t know it ever happened. A blink is the fastest thing I know of.’ ‘Excellent!’ said the interviewer. ‘The blink of an eye. That’s a very popular cliché for speed.’
He then turned to the third man who was contemplating his reply. ‘Well, out on my dad’s property, you step out of the house and on the wall there is a light switch. When you flip that switch, way across the paddock the light at the barn comes on in an instant.
Turning on a light is the fastest thing I can think of.’ The interviewer was very impressed with the third answer and thought he had found his man.
‘It’s hard to beat the speed of light.’ he said.
Turning to the fourth man, an Australian, he posed the same question.
‘After hearing the three previous answers, it’s obvious to me the fastest thing known is diarrhoea,’ said the Aussie. ‘What!’ said the interviewer, stunned by the response? ‘Oh, I can explain,’ said the Aussie, ‘You see, the other day I wasn’t feeling so well and ran for the bathroom. But, before I could, think, blink, or turn on the light, I sh*t my pants.’ He got the job.
Hmm. Apparently, Rangel is ready to lower corporate tax rate (35->28) in exchange for massive tax hike (->44%) for those making $200k or more. Yeah, with state taxes and all those SS/medicare taxes the tax rate is approaching 60% for blue state middle-class DINKs.
So the promised tax cuts for <250k folks may not be coming after all..I’m shocked.
I have agreed with more of jamil posts today than I have with all of his combined previous posts since he showed up on this board.
What’s up with that? Have I changed? Has he? Is it really jamil?
Bairen, #356
I would be up for a GTG at that place in Iselin.
I’m pretty sure I know the one you’re talking about – by the jug handle that leads to Green Street.
67, gary–get my email from grim. husband’s company is hiring. (i’d just tell you the name of the company here, but husband is shy and wants to protect his corporate anonymity)
WOW
MLS #20834978- Colts Neck
Original list- 11/05/07- $1,035,000
Closed- 11/15/08- $670,000
Beautiful colonial on 1.29 acres with concrete pool and mature landscaping.
#435 scribe
I think that’s the one. It’s on a jug handle. The place has EAT in big letters painted on the front, and the whole place is supposed to look like an old, weathered western place. if you’re going North on Rt 1 from the Woodbridge mall you take the exit for Rt 9, but once on the exit ramp you make the left at the fork.
bairen: “What’s up with that? Have I changed? Has he? Is it really jamil?”
Didn’t you get the memo? Change is coming!
Why GM is toast…
Fears that thousands of workers will lose their jobs in the British car industry intensified yesterday, after finance companies refused to insure firms supplying two of the world’s largest car-makers, Ford and General Motors.
The decision will force hundreds of manufacturers across the country to consider whether they wish to consider taking the risk of supplying parts to the US car giants, who have been hit by a sharp fall in sales.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/car-industry-gets-the-jitters-over-crunch-1019508.html
Gm is losing the ability to get parts supplied to its european factories because the suppliers cannot get insurance against a GM default.
Europe is probably GM’s prime market. They actually make european cars that people want to buy unlike the US cars they make.
A bailout by the US government of the scale that GM is currently is still unlikely to save them, as international confidence on the company to stay in business is dead.
Americans cannot afford to buy GM’s cars even if they wanted to and now GM is losing its ability to build cars in europe where it has a fairly successful business because its suppliers cannot get default insurance.
Bankruptcy is the only sensible way out at this point.
Jamil
Global financial collapse, civil unrest, war; are all change. Is this what has been promised?
Then again the only guarantees in life are uncertainty and death
#439 jamil,
OMG. Now you’re dropping one liners.
bi’s $40 oil prediction is getting closer too.
What’s next? Clot sending Bergabe and Klink roses?
depression proof job?
Spam Turns Serious and Hormel Turns Out More
AUSTIN, Minn. — The economy is in tatters and, for millions of people, the future is uncertain. But for some employees at the Hormel Foods Corporation plant here, times have never been better. They are working at a furious pace and piling up all the overtime they want.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/15/business/15spam.html
barien
i think oil will go below 40. I expect 30 and would not be shocked to see a short dip below that.
of course oil is wildly undervalued at such prices, but its another victim of the financial collapse and an investment opportunity.
Bloomberg –
“The following is a reformated version of the full text of the statement released today by the leaders of the Group of 20 developed and emerging-market nations after meeting in Washington:”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aBkxf.HO2P00&refer=economy
don’t forget, the “End the Fed” ralley coming up next Sat, the 22.
SAS
Another flip flop at the shore
MLS#20833927- 2 Kelly Ln- Eatontown
Purchased-10/27/06- $379,000
Listed-6/12/07- $485,00
Forclosure lis pendens-10/23/07
Short sale closed-11/15/08-$320,000
the gold coast has lost its glitter.
SAS
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7319.html
#446 Sas – Just for you from The Market Oracle
Mike Whitney on Paulson’s blunders, securitization and dismantling the Fed…
I agree as well. The non-partisan Jamil is much more interesting than the Dems are the devil Jamil.
cindy 445
Idiots. everyone of those involved in that meeting are either incompetent or criminal.
We are seeing the end result of the greatest debt bubble in human history.
There is always a limit to consumption whether you are a bacteria or a human. We have now accumulated international debt levels that are for all intents and purposes impossible to repay.
The entire thesis of the G20 meeting is a return to growth. That is a suicidal goal.
What we are seeing is also a fundamental weakness of capitalism that has not been kept in check by the business and political leaders of the worlds nations. That flaw is that capitalism will continually seek out more efficient systems of production and consumption.
You reach a point of efficiency where the population becomes well supplied with the core products that they need. In order to maintain growth, people must then be convinced to consume products and services that they do not need. Hence the wonderful world of modern marketing.
The problem is that once the system requires the people to consume products and services that they do not really need, you begin to have the long term misallocation of capital and resources.
Employing 10’s of thousands of workers in china to produce single use widgets for americans that are sold only because of a popular disney movie, has net long term negative impacts on the economy and the society as a whole.
The capital and resources used to produce, market and consume those 1 use widgets could have been used to create truly useful and economically productive products.
What if the money spent on those widgets had instead been put into saving accounts where it was loaned out to a university for education and research?
While that may be an overly simplistic example, the point remains. The problem is that our society has reached such a point of efficiency in production that in order to maintain positive growth levels you must create markets for unnecessary goods and services.
As long as our entire goal is growth for the sake of growth then we are doomed to continue the misallocation of resources that causes events such as the current global financial collapse.
“Mr. Kashkari is AIG playing you as a CHUMP?”
http://tinyurl.com/6qumov
“DENNIS KUCINICH (NOT BARACK OBAMA) GRILLS NEEL KASHKARI ON BAILOUT SCAM”
http://tinyurl.com/5garop
DENNIS KUCINICH GRILLS NEEL KASHKARI ON BAILOUT SCAM
http://tinyurl.com/5garop
http://businesssheet.alleyinsider.com/2008/11/separated-at-birth-neel-kashkari-and-patriotic-muppet-sam-the-eagle
Kashkari – Did you see this?
“Paulson’s Passion FORECLOSURES Really Which Country? Kucinich”
http://tinyurl.com/5cygqf
“”Taxpayer’s pound of flesh” Treasury writing checks to WHO!”
http://tinyurl.com/65qrfs
“Congress questions who YOU are working for!”
http://tinyurl.com/6o73dm
An interesting thought to consider in terms of the current financial crisis and the rapid changes that are starting to appear:
stable governments depend not on force but on habit, the ingrained, far from stupid obedience to the laws and ways of the country as they have been and are.”
It follows that to replace by fiat one set of forms with another, thought up by some impover, no matter how intelligent, ends in disaster. To expect such a scheme to prosper is unreasonable because habits do not form overnight. Change is inevitable and often desirable, but it serves a good purpose only when gradual–evolution, not revolution, yields betterment, if only because at any time a people is composed of several generations.”
-Edmund Burke
Ron Paul on the G20.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/ron-paul-on-global-economic-summit/
A good primer on debt monitization for anyone not familiar with the idea
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2005/09/what_is_debt_mo.html
vodka (451)-
Entropy. What a concept.
clot,
anyone in a high level economics position should have a thorough understanding of thermodynamics….
#462 kettle1,
I’d settle if they had common sense and good ethics.
barien,
the problem is that the long term effects of economic policies are not linear. 99% of people think linearly. Understanding thermodymanics can allow you to understand the full non-linear implications.
Although a simple understanding that economic growth is only sustainable in the long term if the 2nd derivative of the economic growth rate of a system is less then 0 (i.e linear growth as opposed to exponential growth)
heck, its even easier then that. Always plan at least 30 years out……
#464 kettle1
The problem is people in the US have been conditioned to think in terms of 3 months or less, not years. If the egg heads at the Fed can’t id a bubble until after its popped, what chance do they hav at understanding what happens today can have an impact 20 years from now?
They can’t even understand inflation, they’ll never understand thermodynamics. Only 8 year olds that collect baseball cards understand inflation
One more reason why GM cant compete in the US…
http://info.detnews.com/video/index.cfm?id=1189
vodka (462)-
Too bad all the people in those positions are just bank robbers with nice suits.
Cash n’Carry is a scary dude. I think he’s also got some kind of weird man-crush on Klink. The shaved head thing is some sort of uncomfortable attempt to emulate the master.
I think he’s also spent a bit too much time somewhere playing lickspittle. When you let some dweeb like Kucinich bitch-slap you around, it just shows you’ve beenn well-taught in the art of how to be a nancy-boy.
clott,
glad to know that i am not the only one to find the bald look disturbing on mr cash&carry
clott,
what are your thoughts on this…
For Edmund Burke, rights were not universal but particular to each society and handed down by our forefathers. Burke claimed that his view of rights was the traditional British view. In Magna Carta and in the 1689 Declaration of Right – the cornerstone of our constitution – there is no mention of “the rights of man”. In these documents, rights were regarded as a patrimony or inheritance. Burke defined rights as: “an entailed inheritance derived to us from our forefathers, and to be transmitted to our posterity; an estate specially belonging to the people of this kingdom without any reference whatever to any more general or prior right”. (2). We receive and transmit our privileges”in the same manner in which we enjoy and transmit our property and our lives” (i.e. by legal and genetic inheritance).
Modern critics see this position as “startlingly illiberal”: It implies, for instance, that people who have no bequest of democracy or liberty from their ancestors have no automatic right to them. “Freedom is not so much a right that is a necessary part of being human but an inheritance that is handed down to the British people as a piece of property ; might be” (3). If Burke is correct, Westminster-style democracies will never flourish in Africa or Asia, which lack the culture out of which democracy emerged. Britain’s liberties would have no relevance outside Britain and would not be for export except to people of our own blood.
Cindy[445],
Argentine
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
France
Germany
India
Indonesia
Italy
Japan
Mexico
Republic of Koerea
Russian Federation
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
Can you picture Belushi in Animal House? Bullsh#t.
Simply, a lineup that rivals the 1976 Tampa Bay Bucaneers. Abbot and Costello, Who’s on first?
Florida [Gator] vs Georgia is the world’s largest outdoor coc#tail party. The G-20 meeting is the world’s largest indoor meeting of muck. A bunch of incompetent, ill informed, clueless, brainless stooges.
They will leave with a blind handshake committed to monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, free trade, reform, regulations, cooperation, etc.. Blah, Blah, Blah. Maybe you get a suckers rally. End result? Sell and fold. It will be a race to the bottom for paper. It will become a marathon, a complete prostitution of currencies. Then again, what other option do the liars have?
Look at the adjusted monetary base, there is only one, long term winner in this scenario.
We so need a GTG. Grim suggested T-day weekend, but a lot of people travel. I had thought not everyone would want to give up weekends either.
Still, it seems people can get around better on weekends. So I am good with the 29th. As for location, how about the long-planned Brigadoon GTG? Can I get an amen, brothers (and sisters)?
To #473 vipteledfon
I believe you have listed the new economic plan of O. I’m sure most of us can’t understand it. Please translate.
ket, 429
…shoot yourself in the back of the head twice?
“suicide-by-cop”
Uh..he was reaching for my gun, so I wrestled it away and shot him. Twice. Back of the head. As he was running. Uh. Yeah. That’s the story.
Reminds me of a really sick but funny ER story of a guy who tried to kill himself but failed. He was using some ancient ammo his father had stored. Bullet lodged just in front of his spine.
No permanent injury but the “other” part of the story I can’t post.
Remind me and I’ll tell you the rest at the next GTG.
sl
page above translated from Russian to English
appears to be spam?
Translation:
Good day, friends! You will forgive if you please, that I write not into that division, simply it did not find that more being suitable. In my girl birthday on to nose, so I do not know that to generally to it present, as you do think cell phone – it will be normal gift? But there is no money to the original here I think – [url= http://viptelefon.su/%5D the Chinese telephones [of /url] It almost not how is not characterized by, as you do think it will give a ride this? Thanks!
end Translation
from Babelfish (I don’t know much Russian)
sl
Kettle (451) (458) – Please indulge me while I try to view our economic problems of today in a bit of a philosophical way as well (Calling on your reference to Edmund Burke.)
If you make a correlation between the “Roaring Twenties” – “a time to break with tradition and think everything seemed possible through modern technology.” – Wiki.
…. and the “Outrageous 2000’s” then I see hope for future generations.
The 20’s saw spending to excess and speculation then were shocked into the reality that such a lifestyle was not sustainable.
My proposition is that we are there once again – at the crossroads – we have choices to make – back to traditional lending, saving, productivity – frugality out of neccesity…or to try to continue business as usual.
I do not see the Gov being successful reinflating rampant consumerism as a way of growing the US economy.
My point is that as new generations see the ills of excess they can adjust and adapt. The Gov can do what they want, but it will be a skimpy Christmas season and a reined-in consumer appears to be entrenched for all of 2009. (Most even used their rebate checks on debt.)
Luckily, we do have generations with varying experience around at any given time. The 20 and 30- year olds of today are learning a valuable lesson that should temper their actions in the future.
Maybe those of us who were frugal are getting the short end of the stick for now but if it all serves to teach valuable lessons for generations to come regarding the evils of speculation and over-spending we will be a stronger nation in the end.
The focus now must be on productivity. How can we replace the consumerism with a sustainable way of growing our economy.
Edmund Burke – Speech on the Independence of Parliment (1780)
“Frugality is founded on the principal that all riches have limits.”
BC (471) The only hope I have for such meetings (besides trying to settle some CDS issues) is to highlight the broken nature of our rating system and to discourage the return to unsound risk management.
It is obvious now that there was systemic risk for the entire world in our lack of oversight.
Economic growth must now be real – not based on repackaging debt.
“Use fiscal measures to stimulate domestic demand to rapid effect, as appropriate, while maintaining a policy framework conducive to fiscal sustainability.”
Sustainability – to me – means funds allocated to new ventures, support of small business models, and long-term job growth.
Sorry for the long posts – just trying to respond to BC/Kettle from last night….
Regarding Kettle #467
Why would anyone expect any UAW concessions
in a automaker bailout when AIG is using
bailout funds for luxury conventions and
executive bonuses?
This America freebies and handouts for all.
Frank, take a look at SRS…we don’t need no stinking sales stats from mall owners to get the true picture of American retail, all’s you need look at is the ETF SRS, that is the real truth here and it’s very ugly.
Things are deteriating very quickly. Yesterday took the whole clan, wife & inlaws, kids for a walk through on some Centex models on 441 in SE Florida, right out side of W Palm Beach. They’re selling 3k Sq Ft homes, 5 bedrooms, 4 B for $400k, well, they’re trying to sell’em. Gotta laugh, been short CTX for two years now, it’s been an extremely profitable one, will cover I guess when it goes below $7… can’t be too greedy
cindy,
i suggest that one of the core problems is the constant race for economic grow.
google around for steadystate economics.
but i agree that consumerism is dead and must now be replaced.
cindy,
you dotn have to apologize, i am the one who rights the book like posts around here ;)
and i just re-read youer post, i misread it the first time.
I AGREE WITH YOU…..
re: Jose Tejas
It’s a good place for a small gtg during off hours. But if you go at the wrong time- like dinner time on the weekends, it is absolutely packed. I have walked in and walked right out when they’ve told me its an hour wait for a table. The bar area can be so busy that there’s nowhere to stand but outside. Early afternoon would work there on a weekend. But now with the holidays coming, I’m not sure even that would work.
474 SL
I want to hear the other part of the story.
vodka (470)-
I’m down with it. This view of rights, when contrasted to the inglorious reign of Shrub, reveals said Shrub to be the most liberal of all our presidents, as he has always clung to the belief that all peoples of the world thirst for liberty, freedom and democracy. Hence, if the United States has the wherewithal to introduce a sliver of that liberty, freedom and democracy into any country roiled by centuries-old oppression and dictatorial regime, it therefore is justified.
As with religion, the idiotic things we do in the name of a noble idea lead us into nothing but trouble.
The fact is, most people in the world (including the US) have no natural thirst for freedom and democracy. What we DO have are the cravings for a strong, charismatic leader; stronghanded assertion of that leader’s rule; a common love for bloody public spectacle; and, a desire to see those who resist stronghanded rule punished in graphic, symbolic fashion.
Belief in the aspirational nature of the common man always leads to bad things happening. It is the height of irrational liberalism, since at the core of liberalism are both the impulse to ascribe to people traits which they don’t possess, as well as the belief that those who don’t possess such traits can develop them.
To 484. Clotpoll
Shrub, reveals said Shrub to be the most liberal of all our presidents, as he has always clung to the belief that all peoples of the world thirst for liberty, freedom and democracy. Hence, if the United States has the wherewithal to introduce a sliver of that liberty, freedom and democracy into any country roiled by centuries-old oppression and dictatorial regime, it therefore is justified.
——————————————
Sounds like you are trying to give the old Red, White and Blue a black eye. Maybe freedom and liberty are just the nature rights of man. Perhaps you don’t see the big picture and the people in Washington really know what is going on?
#484 Whoa. Clot. You are describing feudalism, or worse. I disagree. I think people do have a natural desire to control their own destiny, it’s just that they are told repeatedly that it is hopeless. They don’t even try because they believe they are doomed to fail because that’s what everyone tells them. Witness the blue collar kid who wants to go to college and the rest of his family criticizes him and tells him he’s trying “to be better than he is.” It’s the same with political freedom. I still believe that the three most important words in the English language are “We, the people…” That says it all.
# 460 kettle1 Says:
A good primer on debt monitization for anyone not familiar with the idea
Wall Street analysts and government economists quickly dismiss the thought that consumers and businesses are over-leveraged. They immediately refer to rising home and equity prices. The amount of debt is marginalized by constantly inflating asset prices. 21st century memories tend to be short. Many have forgotten what can happen to the equity markets when the Fed embarks on a rate raising cycle. The last time this happened in June of 1999, it took only a 1.75 percentage point increase in the Fed funds rate to bring about a stock market collapse and a recession. Yet, Wall Street repeats the mantra that as long as the Fed rate hikes are gradual, the party will continue. Nothing could be further from the truth. Nearly all rate raising cycles end in financial and economic mishaps. When the Fed begins raising rates, bad things happen to the financial markets and the economy. It won’t be any different this time. The only difference will be that it will take fewer rate hikes to send the markets and the economy into a downward spiral.
Carry trades http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/oldupdates/2004/0804.html
230 pm on a saturday and a guy tries to rob a jewelry store at the Waldorf?
http://www.nypost.com/seven/11162008/news/regionalnews/ex_cop_shot_in_waldorf_heist_138946.htm
man, people are getting desperate …
# wallies Says:
November 15th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Yikes #193 –
What Bucks County town are you looking in?
1. newtown
2. washington crossing
3. new hope
jim (485)-
How’s it working out lately for those “people in Washington”?
As for me, I’m getting rather tired of financing their position…right or wrong.
Could I get data on Realtor.com MLS 2847651 please?
Clotpoll 489.
Did the people in Washington get us into this mess, or business people trying to make a quick buck? I don’t like financing mistakes either. God knows there have been plenty of them in the past few years.
Jim (491)-
Economics is all about incentives. Washington gave Wall St incentives to make a quick buck in a dirty fashion and they obviously took advantage. Low interest rates, lax regulation, “ownership” society, unchecked leverage, self-regulating market philosophy – IMO, all of these lead to this disaster.
Jim (491)-
I’d put the blame squarely on the business people, since the guys in DC are merely their bought-and-paid-for stooges.
vic (492)-
Don’t need incentives for business in a f@scist society. Heads, they win; tails, you lose.
Clotpoll
You’re shattering my view of our elected officials as hard working public servants.
did the WSJ really have an editorial about the govt seizing 401ks? i dont have a subscription to the paper, so i haven’t read it.
rick edelman is railing against it, and saying that there’s 0 % chance of this happening, no need to worry at all.
of course, he has a stake in this – he’s a financial adviser who has a show on ABC radio and if people stop contributing to 401ks, his biz is hurting.
Stu and Gator are in for a 11/29 GTG. We can do either Brigadoon or Iselin. We’ll be bringing the Lil Gator as we will have already used up all grandparent babysitting goodwill for the weekend for our late night Thanksgiving run to AC.
bairen,
Yep, that’s the one I was thinking about, with the EAT sign.
I’ve always wondered about that place. Whenever we drive by, it always seems to have a lot of cars in the lot.
498 Scribe
The food is good. No desserts. Huge inside. But like I said earlier, if you go at the wrong time its not a pleasant experience.
#487 yikes
The perp is from Highland Park, NJ too.
I said a while back I couldn’t believe how much Highland Park had deteriorated in the last 10 years.
#498 scribe,
The food is good, inexpensive, and comes in large portions. The gtg would have to be off peak though. The place is packed during regular dinner hours to late on the weekends. It’s also real busy for lunch after 12:30.
That’s why I originally suggested noon or 4 PM. Anything else the place is just too crowded.
“Sustainability – to me – means funds allocated to new ventures, support of small business models, and long-term job growth.”
Cindy,
Stop making sense. The only problem, ceo’s/shareholders long term view is quarterly results.
I still like the idea of Clot’s foreclosure/short sale, bus tour.
scribe Says:
November 16th, 2008 at 10:38 am
bairen, Yep, that’s the one I was thinking about, with the EAT sign. I’ve always wondered about that place. Whenever we drive by, it always seems to have a lot of cars in the lot.
scribe: There is nothing to wonder about Joe Texas. It is standard issue chain restaurant food without the chain. Tasteless, cumin/sodium/carb/processed food, large portions, low-prices and extra-helping of grease, served in a sweat-dripped, humid, greasy spoon, cavernous Texas-themed decor. One of those places that you would not wash your hands after using the bathroom, because they would end up dirtier. Other than that…..good place to meet up….
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/16/style/16consumption.php?page=1
“Conspicuous Consumption Goes Out of Style” Herald Tribune
“The owners of the South City Grill resaurants in New Jersey opened the first of three planned upscale steakhouses this year, and the decor was one of opulence and glamour. “The owners wanted to sparkle like jewelry recalled Anuraq Nema, one of the designers.
The interior featured shimmering silk curtains, ruby-tinted glass, and a hulking crystal chandelier. The stainless steel accents were polished to a mirror brilliance, said Nema, who designed the steakhouse South City Prime, in Little Falls, with Omar Kaufman.
Sure let’s stuff a trillion dollars worth of securitized mortgage loans that are still current into Fannie and Freddie, before they blow up.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/16/business/16gret.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
Clot #484
“The path to hell is paved with good intentions”
Franks weekend mall report;
“The retrenchment by consumers from middle America to New York’s trendy SoHo led to retailers’ worst October same-store sales in more than 35 years, according to International Council of Shopping Centers. Retailers that concentrate heavily on apparel and discretionary merchandise, including Gap Inc, Abercrombie & Fitch Co. and Nordstrom Inc. were among the most hurt and saw their sales awash in a sea of red.”
“More customers are just browsing,” said Geox’s Nehaitou. The new customers “looked at the price and they walked out of the doors. Now we have to explain more about our technology. They said ‘I get paid Friday. I’ll come back in then. I’ve never heard that before.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Frugality-becomes-latest-holiday-shopping/story.aspx?guid=%7B2655E007%2D9CFF%2D4ADA%2D89C3%2D90A4E5E9C5D7%7D
Clotpoll,
If this does not make you move to Cuba, I don’t what will.
“The top ordinary income-tax rate is currently 35 percent; Obama has proposed increasing that to 39.6 percent, and Rangel has proposed imposing an additional surcharge as high as 4 percent for those who make over $200,000.”
“Rangel said that Democrats will also move ahead with Obama’s proposal to give new tax credits to middle-income workers, provisions that would be paid for in part by the income-tax surcharge.
That, he said, would put money in the hands of people who are struggling to buy necessities, and help the economy.
“This is more than just reform,” Rangel said. “It’s good common sense and good economic sense.”
Rangel said Congress would take up tax overhaul next year.
“You can bet your life that taxes is going to be a priority,” Rangel said, citing Obama’s desire to focus on overhauling health care as one of his first initiatives. “It may not fall within the 100 days, but it certainly has to be looked at at the same time we’re looking at health care.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ag7lSuB.yyII
Clotpoll,
If this does not make you move to Cuba, I don’t what will.
“The top ordinary income-tax rate is currently 35 percent; 0bama has proposed increasing that to 39.6 percent, and Rangel has proposed imposing an additional surcharge as high as 4 percent for those who make over $200,000.”
“Rangel said that Democrats will also move ahead with 0bama’s proposal to give new tax credits to middle-income workers, provisions that would be paid for in part by the income-tax surcharge.
That, he said, would put money in the hands of people who are struggling to buy necessities, and help the economy.
“This is more than just reform,” Rangel said. “It’s good common sense and good economic sense.”
Rangel said Congress would take up tax overhaul next year.
“You can bet your life that taxes is going to be a priority,” Rangel said, citing 0bama’s desire to focus on overhauling health care as one of his first initiatives. “It may not fall within the 100 days, but it certainly has to be looked at at the same time we’re looking at health care.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ag7lSuB.yyII
Ket – #470 – standard Eugenics, and anathema to the US, a nation of immigrants.
On the other hand, I’ll happily buy Clots notion that people are sh*t everywhere and will happily follow the herd. We are, genetically and by dint of evolution, a social, communal animal. Like dogs. Or meerkats. Although I think meerkats are more generous by nature.
Having lived in a multitude of nations and cultures, I just don’t buy that one group of people has some kind of in built superiority.
“Not only do such changes require the approval of hard-to-identify investors who essentially control the mortgages, but also many pools were designed with rules that limit the numbers of loans that can be modified.”
Sean [506],
After the dead wood, G-20, leaves the bldg maybe they can invite the G-100; pension plans, hedge funds, banks, mutual funds, college endowments, etc.. They can decide how they want to modify tranches of the same mortgages that they all own a piece of.
Hammerin Hank presented a teaser rate/exploding arm to Congress. Now, it’s obvious that he’s the quintessential flipper.
Why not send each houshold a 50K gift card, only redeemable at JCP? The consumer, back in the game? The game is over, the consumer was blom out before halftime. If it wasn’t so sad it would actually be comical.
“A leading US retail executive on Friday called for government action to boost consumer spending as new figures showed a record fall in sales last month.”
“Obviously, consumer confidence has plummeted,” Mike Ullman, chief executive of JC Penney, told Wall Street analysts. “I think [for] the new administration, it is job one for them to try to understand how to get the consumer back in the game.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cea9e032-b251-11dd-bbc9-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1
That’s blown out.
Hey, Frank is right. Who knew? Retail sales are up; thrift stores and goodwill.
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-12/1226812673224680.xml&coll=1
bucks county may be represented at the 11/29 gathering. have to discuss with the wife. is anyone else going who is in the 28-31 age range?
http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom
Did anyone post this this week?
The End – Michael Lewis
“The era that defined Wall Street is finally, officially over. Michael Lewis, who chronicaled its excess in “Liar’s Poker” returns to his haunt to figure out what went wrong.
Warning – 9 pages long…
515 Yikes
is anyone else going who is in the 28-31 age range?Nope sorry. The rest of us are in the geezer brigade. :)
Housing starts expected to hit half-century low
Consumer prices falling at fastest pace in 60 years, economists say
http://tinyurl.com/6azcef
“is anyone else going who is in the 28-31 age range?”
multiply that range by 2.5, that would be me.
SAS
Bc, Clot – At what point did our society start to LIVE off of credit cards? When did the reliance on credit for the consumer become so great?
was there a trigger? A ballpark range for years in which the mindset changed – “i need this, and im getting it whether or not I can afford it.”
This has to date back much further than the recent run-up in real estate, right? Is this something that started in the 90s?
Cindy (516) –
Yes, Pat posted that before. An excellent read. Highly recommend it.
Lisoosh
“Eugenics”
how so? I do not agree with the entire statement, but i think there may be some interesting aspects of it. The US fought for an won our “liberty”. How many nations have successfully been given “liberty”. Americans are seeing their Liberties slip away day by day, from the patriot act to taxes. We as a nation have been unwilling to stand up and fight to maintain the liberties won for us by our forefathers, and as a result they slip away.
In the same manner, any people that are not willing to fight to secure their own rights will be unlikely to maintain a society that is built by and handed to them by someone else no matter how well intentioned.
A free society requires all members to actively support those rights. A free society cannot be maintained when the people no longer stand up for or defend those rights.
In many ways that is the exact philosophy that our nation was founded on. On the principle of standing up for and being willing to fight for ones principles.
“At what point did our society start to LIVE off of credit cards? When did the reliance on credit for the consumer become so great?”
when manufacturing base started going off shores. manufacturing once supplied a decent middle class salary. Once that base was removed credit soon replaced that salary, along with “loose lips Linda” lending style.
SAS
Yikes,
It was started in the late 70’s
yikes,
i am in your age range
“is anyone else going who is in the 28-31 age range?”
Yikes,
Anybody over 31 will be attending the GTG at the geriatrics ward.
at this point i guess we should just find a nice hill top from which we can watch rome burn…..
report on the G20 Meetings from Mish.
G-20 Top 10 Accomplishments
* 10: President Bush said “There was a common understanding that all of us should promote a pro-growth economic policy.”
* 09: U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said “there is a clear determination on the part of world leaders in every continent to take necessary action to move economies out of this difficult period.”
* 08: The group agreed to not cap executive pay.
* 07: The group sang the praises of low interest rates.
* 06: The group will work on recommendations for enhancing disclosure while hinting it would allow the continuation of mark to fantasy accounting.
* 05: The group called for rating agencies to be registered even though rating agencies in the US are already sponsored by the SEC.
* 04: The group called for the creation of “supervisory colleges” who will not do anything thing but receive outrageous pay for sharing information one can easily find on Bloomberg.
* 03: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey complained “the group of friends” otherwise known as the G-8 would not let them in whenever the G-8 got together to party. The above listed countries are saying to the G-8 “please don’t throw a party without us.”
* 02: The all inclusive group of 20 friends agreed to throw another party in April.
* 01: Drum roll please….. The number one accomplishment of the G20 meeting was to blame hedge funds and the buyers (not sellers) of poison apples for the financial crisis.
Top 5 Things G-20 Ignored
* 05: US Dollar Hegemony.
* 04: Micro-Mismanagement of interest rates by the Fed and Central Bankers.
* 03: Spending run rampant in US authorized by Congress. Same thing in other G-20 countries.
* 02: Of immediate concern is the Collapse of Trade, Letters of Credit, and Baltic Dry Shipping. Please see Yet More Trade Finance Worries (Not for the Fainthearted).
* 01: Fractional Reserve Lending run rampant, leverage, excessive credit creation, and unsound fiat currencies. In other words the G-20 ignored discussing the very cause of the problem we are now facing.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
“Fake TV News: Widespread and Undisclosed”
http://tinyurl.com/sxwc4
Clotpoll Says at 8:49 am:
What we DO have are the cravings for a strong, charismatic leader
Bertrand Russell, “A Free Man’s Worship”:
Man was born,with…the cruel thirst for worship.
Ket – Eugenics from this:
“Burke claimed that his view of rights was the traditional British view.
..Britain’s liberties would have no relevance outside Britain and would not be for export except to people of our own blood.”
This is very typical of the British colonial mindset which viewed the peoples of the nations it subjugated as genetically inferior.
I’m not even sure where you extrapolate that to American freedoms and liberty. As the United States is a nation of immigrants, the freedoms and rights are accepted by choice, not as genetic inheritance. A large number of Americans would be seen, in that same British mindset as being vastly inferior.
That’s not to say that the form of democracy we view as an ideal in the current Western nations can just be imposed on others. Democracies can’t be imposed at all. As they represent the will of the people, they have to evolve BY the will of the people. Impositions are dictatorships, no matter how benign. Nor would I say that all systems suit all people – there are definitely different cultures in the world, with different mindsets. Each nation needs to find its own way.
Regardless. I do think your choice of quote was poor and doesn’t really show what you think it shows.
scribe: There is nothing to wonder about Joe Texas. It is standard issue chain restaurant food without the chain. Tasteless, cumin/sodium/carb/processed food, large portions, low-prices and extra-helping of grease, served in a sweat-dripped, humid, greasy spoon, cavernous Texas-themed decor. One of those places that you would not wash your hands after using the bathroom, because they would end up dirtier. Other than that…..good place to meet up….
WOW….
lisoosh,
i see your point, i was trying to reference the portions i thought relevant without poisoning them with the remainder, perhaps you are right and it didnt work very well….
ket –
So we agree that Western style “democracy” can’t just be exported. And that rights have to be earned and fought for.
I think where we might differ is that I am less than enamoured with the libertarian obsession with freedom and liberty. To me that just translates as a free-for-all jungle.
To me the true beauty in the US is that it is a nation of laws – laws essentially written by concensus and which (in theory) holds all accountable.
There are very few nations where any old individual can take the entire government to court, and win. That is a beautiful thing.
It is the laws which turn a nation of hundreds of millions extremely diverse individuals, with no personal connection into some form of functioning society.
ket – 538 – Having grown up in the UK, I’m probably better acquainted with colonial style racism.
Grim or anyone else with GSMLS access – Did 43 Hillside in GR go under contract, or was it withdrawn?
Many thanks.
Gator,
UC; closing 12/15
List Price: $450k
Original LP: $499k
Our History Tells us “Taxation Without Representation Is Tyranny”. Never have we been Taxed so Insidiously with such False Representation. A Classic Obscene Local Level Tax is paying for a permit to replace a broken hot waterheater. Classic False Representation is a Government bought and paid for by Special Interest Groups.
Thanks, Syb. Will ask again after 12/15 to find out what it went for. This is Alia’s house…or at least her garden.
kettle,
sniff….sniff..
“Major international drill based at D-M to focus on rescue skills, coordination”
http://tinyurl.com/6s9wxw
SAS
kettle,
if that link doesn’t work:
Personnel from around the globe will converge at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base from Dec. 1 to Dec. 12 for the largest rescue exercise of its kind.
The effort, dubbed Angel Thunder, will involve the U.S. Army and Air Force, troops from Germany, Chile, Colombia and observers from Canada, Mexico, Brazil and Pakistan.
Several non-military U.S. agencies such as the State and Justice departments, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and the National Reconnaissance Office, also will take part in the drills, which aim to smooth interaction between military branches, allied nations and civilian agencies.
With about 450 personnel involved, Angel Thunder “is the most complex and largest Department of Defense personnel- recovery exercise to date,” said a news release from Air Combat Command in Langley, Va.
D-M will be at the hub of the effort, but most of the mock rescue action will take place elsewhere in Arizona and in New Mexico.
520,
if we make it… 32 and 33. are we geezers? :*)
525 my mom started living off of credit cards in the 90s. too much college debt (her own, not mine), rent in the safe part of town too expensive, and she had run out of welfare/gov’t safety nets long ago.
544 gator
LOL, you remembered! :)
husband got cold feet on new jersey, anyway. something about you guys being worse off gov’t budget-wise than new york.
i think we’ll probably end up sinking our down payment into something like a summer cottage or nom’s compound. depends on how nervous i make the husband.
but i continue to dream…
and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM might be entertaining. (old hitler movie w/ new real estate-related subtitles) er, a laff riot…
No bonuses for GS head honchos. Only a total of 7 people, but 2007 bonuses for these guys were about $400mm. Throw in a couple more sacrificial lambs and maybe the masses will be happy. I’m all for the top people not getting their bonuses, since they let the fox into the henhouse, but the little guys at most of these firms probably had no involvement in most of this mess. Reduced bonsues for the lower rung, sounds fair.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIFXdUq2DvJA&refer=home
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081116/bs_nm/us_genworth_tarp_2
“…in order to participate in the Treasury Department’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)…
Genworth said on Sunday it had reached an agreement in principle to buy InterBank fsb of Maple Grove, Minnesota and filed a savings and loan holding company application…”
RE 465
‘2nd derivative of the economic growth rate of a system is less then 0 (i.e linear growth as opposed to exponential growth)’
This is incorrect. Linear growth implies a 2nd derivative that equals zero. Moreover, this assumes that the function is polynomial. Is a polynomial a good model for the economy?
Does a polynomial have greed and implicit exhuberance?
un mod?
http://www.sclibrary.ab.ca/kids/reading/stories.htm
Gator/Alia – Have you tried Tubblebooks? You have to access it through a Canadian Libray – The logo should be off to the left once you get to the site..
If the link doesn’t work – try to google Tubblebooks alberta
Cindy – how fantastic. I have 4 and 6 year olds. I know what they’ll be looking at tomorrow. Thanks for the link!
Concerning GS – My boss works with Jon Winkelried. Supposedly he is seriously, seriously P.O.’d.
I got hit by a squeegee men near the port authority terminal this afternoon. Bet crack will be back within the month.
keep the good work,Its so lovely
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