NJ Home Price Tracker has been updated with NJAR Q3 Data, OFHEO Q3 Data, and S&P Case Shiller September Data:
(click to enlarge)
Year over Year Price Changes by Index
S&P Case Shiller NY Metro Area Commutable (September 2008)
Low Tier – Down 10.4% (Under $326523)
Middle Tier – Down 8.1% ($326523 – $481833)
High Tier – Down 5.7% (Over $481833)
Aggregate – Down 7.3% (Overall Market)
OFHEO Home Price Index (Third Quarter 2008)
HPI – Down 4.9%
Purchase Only HPI – Down 5.3%
New Jersey Association of Realtors (Third Quarter 2008)
Median Price – Down 4.4%
Spreadsheet/Data can be found here:
US Gov bailout to date:
4.4 trillion ( as of Nov 13)
http://tinyurl.com/5dhltm
7.7 trillion pledged on monday
and now another 0.8 trillion
US GDP: 13 trillion
Total bailout to date: 12.9 trillion
I tis interesting that data shows that low tier fallen the most. Does it reflect huge price drops in places like Newark and Patterson??
I mentioned that the data would be crappy a month or so back. I was noting a large drop in the Washington DC area.
As I already noted next months Case-Schiller data will be pitiful for the Washington Area too.
If the NAR data looks bad then so will Case-Schiller.
Graphs! Nice! My favorite part of NJREREPORT.COM.
low tier dropping most makes perfect sense. subprime predatory and loose lending.
Does anyone has experience with multi-currency accounts? I’m looking to buy some EUR. I can’t find a US bank that seems to offer it, strange. Looking at online brokers I found “oanda” and “interactivebrokers”, are these reliable?
oanda is very well-known. I thought ING offers currency accounts too.
I also mentioned a while back that I was noticing a disproportionate amount of homes for sale in lower end communities, on the order of 10%.
In the higher end communities I was seeing 2-4% of houses for sale.
I haven’t gone back and done a retest of those areas to see if the demographic has changed but I have been thinking about it for a while. When sales start to return to these areas your going to see a disproportionate amount of sales in low end areas which will drag the average/median house price down even though housing is recovering.
This phenomenon will not be seen in the C/S index though but it will be worth noting since the NAR/OFHEO data comes out before the C/S data. Since the markets have gone the way of housing, a recovery in the housing markets will be a leading indicator of economic stability/recovery.
From the NY Times:
Outlook Grows More Dire for Housing Market
The financial shocks of September and October appeared to dash any hopes for a quick recovery in the housing market, where the precipitous declines in sales and prices — the problems at the heart of the current credit crisis — have only worsened.
Home loans, already scarce by normal standards, dried up as the impact of the Lehman Brothers collapse spiraled through the credit market. Buyers who had begun to wade back into the market were spooked by the turmoil, reversing recent improvements in sales. And sellers were forced to lower prices again, sending home values down at a record pace.
Home prices across the United States declined 16.6 percent in the third quarter from the July-to-September period a year ago, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, a widely watched gauge released Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s.
That amounted to the biggest quarter-to-quarter decline in prices since the survey began in 1988. Prices have returned to levels not seen since 2004.
“We continue to believe that it is unlikely that we are anywhere near a bottom in nationwide home prices,” Joshua Shapiro, chief domestic economist at the research firm MFR, wrote in a message to clients.
I need a way of mining the direct NAR data to understand housing sales/demographics for low-end, middle, and top-end housing.
At this point that is one area which I know will be important but don’t have access to that information.
From previous post #184 jamil:
“Amid all the political and media hysteria, national output has declined by less than one-half of one percent. In fact, it may not have declined even that much– or at all– when the statistics are revised later, as they very often are.
Perhaps that is because this whole thing just started really getting interesting if you will over the last 3 months. it will be the numbers going forard that amtter, not what has alreaddy happend. I believe Mr. Sowell is way too optimistic.
We have not seen anything like this mess in our life time. I guess some people need to bw reminded of that on a daily basis.
I need a way of mining the direct NAR data to understand housing sales/demographics for low-end, middle, and top-end housing.
Good luck getting the data, I’m a Realtor and they won’t even respond to my requests for data.
#7 nicholas:Since the markets have gone the way of housing, a recovery in the housing markets will be a leading indicator of economic stability/recovery.
Yeah. In about 10 years or so, if past history is any guide (and it usually is). and this tiem around things are much, much worse.
http://www.ise.com/WebForm/viewEventsItem.aspx?CategoryId=43&ItemId=5710
Number 5 read this about Euro/USD
3b:
“We have not seen anything like this mess in our life time. I guess some people need to bw reminded of that on a daily basis.”
They’ll get their daily reminder without your help soon enough. Tent cities, apple carts and bread lines should do it.
Grim,
Nice chart although there is almost too much going on in it. When I see a chart like that, I must remind myself that it shows a rate of change and not a total. Without that realization, things don’t look quite that bad. So what do you think will have lasted longer. The bubble or the trough?
Nicholas,
I agree that the low end will fall way before the high end, as the subprime crisis becomes the prime crisis. When you compare the size of the prime loans to the subprime loans, it is not quantity so much that matters as to the size of each default.
If you believe that the current crash will play out like the last one (in terms of both price declines and timeline), it looks like we’ve got another full year of price declines before we hit bottom, give or take a few quarters.
#5 – are you looking to buy actual currency to hold, or are you looking to do FX trading?
if you are just looking for currency hold positions, perhaps something like FXE?
People were yelling and making a fuss over 700 billion in the TARP program. No one is concerned about 12 trillion?
If 12 trillion will not solve the problem ( and it wont), then no amount will
At what multiple of US GDP do people get upset?
At what multiple of US GDP do our creditors pull the plug?
3b,
I’m not talking about a 10 year rebound in RE. I’m talking about the cusp that indicates that housing has stopped declining.
I’m not interested in making money on RE but I want to know when huge waves of economic instability will stop buffeting our economy. Only when RE stops dumping will that be possible.
Grim,
If you can look at individual sales from the MLS then you should be able to compend the data yourself. For one person it might be prohibitive to do but for a large research firm they might be able to sell the results.
In addition you probably could do some statistical sampling that would indicate rather reliably broader trends in certain communities. For example, instead of examining every house for sale in the area examine every 5th house.
kettle (17) –
waiting for revolution to begin
Nice chart although there is almost too much going on in it.
In addition to showing price changes, I wanted to illustrate the differences between indices as well as the “noisiness” of the data.
This might interest some folks here.
Rutgers Master Gardener Program
http://njaes.rutgers.edu/mastergardeners/
nick, grim,
send an info request stating that it is for an NAR bailout evaluation. Then see how much data you get.
You guys are both with the treasury right? Grim, i am sure you know how to spoof an email address.
It is interesting that data shows that low tier fallen the most. Does it reflect huge price drops in places like Newark and Patterson??
Keep in mind that the Low Tier rose the most too.
Nick,
call me crazy, but i think some areas will 70% off peak
Ket (17) – Added to unfunded obligations, that should bring the deficit to nearly seventy (70) trillion?
‘Full Speed Adrift…’
From the Star Ledger:
N.J. business survey paints bleak 2009 picture
A survey of New Jersey employers — the majority of them with 49 or fewer workers — reveals their outlook for business has fallen sharply to levels not seen since the state’s two previous recessions more than 16 years ago.
Their plans to hire more employees have also fallen, to the lowest level in 18 years, the New Jersey Business and Industry Association has found.
“The bottom line is New Jersey is in a recession,” Philip Kirschner, NJBIA president, said today. “We are looking at 2009 as worse than 2008 and business is already in bad shape. We are looking at a bad year ahead. We are looking at 2009 as a very, very rough economy. To this point it is not worse than the recessions of the early 80s and early 90s, but it is comparable.”
Sixty-nine percent of the survey participants reported their industries were in recession or slipping into one when the survey was conducted in September, while 77 percent said they expect business conditions to remain unchanged or worsen in the first half of 2009.
As a group, they reported a sharp drop in sales, profits and and employment in 2008, and their outlook for these measures of business performance in 2009 remains weak.
Kirschner said the 1,450 survey respondents include retailers, service companies, wholesalers, and trucking companies. Eighty-three percent of them are small businesses.
Fifty-seven percent of the respondents believe business conditions will get worse before they get better, a more negative assessment than was found in a survey taken during the 2001 recession. Only 17 percent of companies said they expect to expand their payrolls in 2009, a hiring outlook even weaker than during the 2001 recession. Over the past 25 years, only the 1991 survey has produced a more negative employment outlook.
“The current plunge in business confidence did not come out of thin air,” Kirschner said. “It follows three consecutive years of already deteriorating business conditions and mostly falling expectations. The current survey findings suggest New Jersey was in an economic recession for much, if not all of 2008, and that a majority of businesses expect recession-like conditions to persist in 2009.”
grim Says:
November 25th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
If you believe that the current crash will play out like the last one
What do you think? Will this one play out like the last one?
As of 11/12/08; leverage, 53x, cap ratio 1.9%.
http://216.157.72.247/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/verweelfed.jpg
#15 grim: And than years of flat prices.
Kettle,
The problem is you need it to come in at regular intervals not just once. You need to be able to reliably track a bounce in sales in the low end of the housing spectrum. At the same time you need to be tracking forclosure rates and forclosure sales for the same time period.
Once you see that forclosure sales are waning and sales are strenghtening in the low-end areas then you could say with some certainty that you have reached a housing bottom and that recovery has started.
At that point then you could start to see that lenders would stop the massive hemmoraging of cash. You could expect a quarter or two of more mixed data but essentially you could start long term investing.
With all that said, it might just be enough to look at the forclosure numbers and note when they start to decline.
#15 grim: Actually I believe it will be worse than the last one, and flat prices for at least 10 years.
Just couldn’t break through 840. Hopefully there’ll be third try.
#15 grim: And than years of flat prices.
Right, if it does play out the same, we’re looking at prices falling through 2009 and then staying flat until somewhere around 2013.
That is nominal, not real. Real prices would continue to decline thru 2013.
“At what multiple of US GDP do people get upset?”
We were up in arms about spending 200 billion on the Iraq war and that is already well over 600 billion.
To put things into perspective, we just spent 20 Iraq wars worth of dough.
#18 nicholas: Understood. I am just saying that if the last real estate bust is any guide, prices fell and than stayed flat for years.
#33 grim:and then staying flat until somewhere around 2013.
And that of course will be predicatd on how long and how severe this recession is.
There is a problem with protesting and revolution. It will certainly hamper our treasuries credit ratings as well as our lenders perception of us. And trust me, if we are going to survive this crisis, it will require the help of our Asian friends.
Kettle,
Although I haven’t stated my “off-peak” position here on this board, I have told members of my family (when prices were 22% off-peak) that they should brace themselves for another 30% minimum decline on top of that. I was ignored.
That would have been a prediction of 45% off-peak prices.
There were some areas that jumped 260% in Maryland over the last 6 years (100,000$ house is now worth 260,000$) so I wouldn’t be surprised if we do see 60-70% declines in house prices.
What do you think? Will this one play out like the last one?
Worse than the early 90s collapse.
For reference, it is worth going through again if you haven’t in a while:
Home Prices Do Fall
A Look At The Collapse Of The 1980’s Real Estate Bubble Through The Eyes Of The New York Times
And trust me, if we are going to survive this crisis, it will require the help of our Asian friends.
… and Father Guido.
Huge swings in oil futures over the last few days. It is looking pretty rough.
Currently 51.00$
it always starts west and comes east later. it’s coming. patience, young grasshopper
Paid $1.65 for gas in Union yesterday. Only needed half a tank, but saw the capitulation in oil prices and thought it might go up from here. Funny how there is almost no lag time for gas stations to raise their prices when oil prices increase, but they always seem to lower it way after oil prices drop.
Of course, I’m not really complaining. What is $1.65 a gallon at 2008 prices. Gas is once again somehow significantly cheaper than bottled water.
[37] Stu,
tax revolts like we have seen in the past would not ruffle foreign feathers since they are purely state phenomena.
What would start to frost foreign onions would be if states (and not fringe elements within them) started active efforts to explore secession. Such efforts would probably start out as “contingency planning” (which I have always believed a state should have. After all, we have natural disaster contingency plans). That would cause a great deal of heartburn worldwide.
That said, the gravitational force from DC, due to the federalization of nearly everything, and the money that goes with it, is so strong that it is beyond comprehension that any state, except for Alaska, would ever consider secession. Being part of the Union pays too well.
At some point hyper-inflation becomes one of the few hopes of managing the mounting national debt.
[34] stu says
“To put things into perspective, we just spent 20 Iraq wars worth of dough.”
You know how to get someone’s attention, don’t you?
I’m looking to actually hold EUR and not trade it. I might move back to the euro-zone in the future.
FXE would not work since it I still would want to eventually convert USD into EUR. With FXE I would also possibly need to pay capital gains tax on any profit if the exchange rate has moved in the meantime.
I called e-trade, they will always require to exchange back to USD in order to wire funds out.
(6) Jamil, do you have a specific multi-currency link for ING?
Nom,
“What would start to frost foreign onions”
Please refrain from the use of the word onion. It creates uncontrollable sexual urges in some posters here thanks to John, and paints a disgusting image in my mind.
Otherwise, I agree with your theory.
I posted some NY Metro CS charts too this mroning.
The tiered data is always the most interesting to me.
Back in August I posted some thoughts on if buying a lower priced home was a good bubble strategy.
The lower tiers in the markets I looked at seem to have the same charectaristics. They inflated and deflated faster than the other tiers.
Comparing this to the last RE bubble may not be a good idea. This one was allowed to grow much bigger and I believe the consequences will be greater. We’re already starting to see that.
The most interesting data I’ve seen was how after 2003 practically everyone was a subprime borrower. The amount of agency conforming mortgages was less than the total amount of non coforming loans. I think I linked to a chart in the post I mentioned.
For the bubble to keep going this time, about half the borrowers had to become subprime borrowers.
This bust will make the 1990 collapse seem like a dress rehearsal, duration/depth of decline. The greed, fraud, negligence, reckless lending, etc.., associated with this charade busted thru the charts, like never before. The 1990 decline was brought on by the recession. This bust imploded on the back of its own bogus foundation. Never before has a recession been brought on by a housing decline. This will be one for the record books, no comparison needed.
Is is true the new lending facility, fed purchasing mbs/debt from fannie/freddie, is called TTSB? Take The Sh*t Back.
Stu:
courtesy of Kettle! (who supplied me w/some to excoriate that image from my retinas….)
http://tinyurl.com/57okk8
Anybody post this?
“Hovnanian Enterprises Announces Results of Private Debt Exchange Offer for Certain of its Debt Securities”
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/081125/ph48463.html?.v=1
They are paying 18% on their notes. The local shylock doesn’t charge that much!
BC, no offense but this bust is a joke. It is a slow moving car crash that is over a year old. Folks I deal with have been cutting back on leasing, pre-paying their mortgages, moving to fixed income and CDs in preparation for the worst. The October 19th 1987 collaspe all happened in one day and the S&L crash happened fairly quickly, housing in these parts peaked spring 2005 and people had nearly four years to either refinance, sell or pay down the mortgage. Those who went pedal to the metal all the way up to September 2008 and lost their job in October are sunk. But as they say if you don’t know who the sucker is, you are the sucker.
Someone gonna call sub 8000 on the DJIA as people settle into their positions before Thanksgiving?
John [53],
Why are you comparing the present RE bust with the 1987 stock market crash? This is not thunder and lightning, it’s a yard and a cloud of dust.
I tis interesting that data shows that low tier fallen the most. Does it reflect huge price drops in places like Newark and Patterson??
According to CS, “low tier” includes homes under $326k, so it’s not just homes in Newark & Paterson; its condo’s and run down starter capes in middle class towns. This price level is what the majority of people can afford; even in prestigious NJ.
These homes experienced the greatest increase in prices. As buyers were progressively priced out of upper tier and mid tier homes, upper-middle income buyers who would normally buy a mid-tier homes were now in bidding wars over POS starter capes. They “needed” to buy something lest they be priced out forever. This created an artificial shortage of “cheap” home and drove up the prices. This isn’t just a NJ phenomenon, but played out pretty much the same in most bubble markets.
Because they had the greatest run-up, low-tier have the farthest to fall. I don’t think this should be misinterpreted as sign us strength in the upper end. The upper end didn’t go up as much, experienced weakness much earlier, and therefore doesn’t show as sharp of a recent decline as the low end, however the end result is the same.
FORD HOLDINGS INC GTD DEB 9.30000% 03/01/2030
Price (Ask) 20.000
Yield to Worst (Ask) 46.247%
Tempting Dice Roll
that’s great. any players in the 60s or 70s jump out at you?
John,
Check out this offering.
http://tinyurl.com/center-spread
i disagree with this mostly because a mortgage of $480k wuld mean your monthly nut is what, $4000? unless you and the wife are making 200k a year, i think putting down that little is absurd. esp in this job climate
maybe i just disagree because im a potential homebuyer, but at max, we want to carry a $325k mortgage. we’d be more comfortable around $300k, and combined, we do pretty well
this is exactly why we moved to Bucks County. right over the NJ border, not even 5 miles or 10 mins.
then again, neither of us is tethered to Manhattan (now at least)
two imbeciles on CNBC saying the only way to help homeowners is by cutting principal. they think it will happen jan 20 when obama takes over.
man, that would be terrible for anyone sitting on the sidelines
bc – do you still have your boots on?
Yikes
This could very well be our next move. We plan to make a few day trips over the holidays to scout things out.
What?? Are you trying to get nosy? Curiosity killed the damn cat, so watch your step young one! When you have someone like me cornered with his ass in a financial vice, there’s no telling what might happen when you ask too many damn questions. I supported this country by fueling the real estate industry and I don’t appreciate being left hanging in the damn wind. I really don’t appreciate terrorists having disrupted my gravy train. When you push anyone too far and you risk a revolutionary backlash, so someone had better do something in a hurry to restore my real estate.
As I’ve stated previously, I own and manage a small business, and no, I’m not telling you a damn thing about what the business does.
cooper Says:
November 25th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
BTW re101 what do you really do?
Renting,
I agree with most of what you say but want to add that looking at the data according to income groups shows that home buyers in the lower income group where spending more on housing in proportino to their incomes than those in the high bracket. Mid income rose too.
The high income group barely moved and actually went down during the bubble. So those in higher income groups that bought homes priced less than 2x their annual income are going to be in much better shape than those in the low income group that spent more than 5x their yearly earnings.
I pulled the chart from a 2005 HUD report and you can view house price to income by income group on the last graph on that page.
“Curiosity killed the damn cat”
so your small business is what cat herding?
stu – where, like SKF and SRS?
just saw two jack*sses on CNBC saying the only way to really help homeowners is to reduce the principal. they think it’ll happen on jan 20 2009 when you know who takes over
Our opinion is basically going to be based upon schools. bucks county has some darn good schools – the area would probably (no stats to back this up) rate up near the strongest counties in NJ. i’d assume it’s top 25 nationally.
prices are not falling that fast over here, and we’ve been looking for quite some time. but the taxes are the huge thing. i would venture the taxes on most houses are 1/2 of what they are in NJ.
This can’t stand. The commies have gone too far and that little twerp Chavez has not stepped over the line. You libs are going to wish that Mac and Sarah had won.
It’s time to stop playing around with Pukin and that punk Chavez. It’s high time we put them in their place.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/90616338-88d3-11dd-a179-0000779fd18c.html
Russia-Venezuela moves stir cold war ghosts
By Benedict Mander in Caracas and Daniel Dombey in Washington
Published: September 22 2008 22:56 | Last updated: September 22 2008 22:56
A Russian military fleet set off from its Arctic Sea port of Severomorsk on Monday, bound for military exercises off Venezuela in mid-November that would mark the first such Russian action in the region since the end of the cold war.
Coming just days after supersonic, nuclear-capable Tu-160 bombers streaked home to Russia after a flying visit to Venezuela, the move evokes images of the time when Latin America was a prime theatre of US-Soviet rivalry, from the 1962 Cuban missile crisis to the 1980s civil wars in Nicaragua and El Salvador.
Symbolic visit: a nuclear-capable Tu-160 bomber from Russia sits at a Venezuelan military airbase at Palo Negro, west of Caracas, earlier this month
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Crime blights lives of Caracas dwellers – Nov-11Caracas banks hit by Lehman failure – Oct-14World Bank cuts Latin America growth forecast – Oct-13Medvedev bolsters links with US foe – Sep-26Court case throws up tales of intrigue – Sep-26Chávez strengthens oil ties with China – Sep-24As Washington criticises Russia for seeking to extend its sphere of influence in neighbouring countries, the Kremlin has sought to embarrass the US by deepening ties with a part of the world the US has traditionally seen as its backyard.
US officials have reacted with thinly veiled scorn to the moves, feigning surprise that Russia had ships that could travel so far. They depict the recent military co-operation between Venezuela and Russia as a crude response to Washington’s support for Georgia, and as a gambit that has symbolic, rather than practical, effect.
“I supported this country by fueling the real estate industry and I don’t appreciate being left hanging in the damn wind. I really don’t appreciate terrorists having disrupted my gravy train. When you push anyone too far and you risk a revolutionary backlash, so someone had better do something in a hurry to restore my real estate.”
Maybe you should start a new pyramid scheme to get this country back on track.
Yikes
Regarding schools in Bucks Co. This is what I hear. if I have another dipshit tell me that RE taxes in NJ are high due to great schools I am going to puke. Boston suburbs have much better schools than NJ and the RE taxes are also have as much.
Anyway, would welcome your opinion on various towns/school districts in Bucks.
meant half (1/2) as much
Can someone with GSMLS access please give me the status of 21 Bodwell in Millburn (2522586)? UC or Withdrawn? This one had a 100k drop in LP. Wondering if anyone bit.
If your wife has to work to afford a mortgage then you can’t afford a mortgage.
yikes Says:
November 25th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Buying a 600K house with 120K down is what I call gambling.
i disagree with this mostly because a mortgage of $480k wuld mean your monthly nut is what, $4000? unless you and the wife are making 200k a year, i think putting down that little is absurd. esp in this job climate
maybe i just disagree because im a potential homebuyer, but at max, we want to carry a $325k mortgage. we’d be more comfortable around $300k, and combined, we do pretty well
I think I need to go punch the clown.
Stu Says:
November 25th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
John,
Check out this offering.
http://tinyurl.com/center-spread
Gator,
Withdrawn 11/23/08, with LP of 699k.
Thornburg Mtg Inc. TMA (NYSE)$0.31Change:+0.15 +91.38%
Volume:15,356,960
Up 91% sounds good until you realize it is still down 99% ytd
“If your wife has to work to afford a mortgage then you can’t afford a mortgage.”
What world are you living in?
If this was true, every McMansion would be bulldozed and small shed like dwelling structures would be built in their place. I’m thinking leen-tos.
“I think I need to go punch the clown.”
I guess the onion didn’t hit the spot.
21….is that an existential ‘Being There’ type thing….a la Chauncey Gardner?
Stu, in Upper Saddle River, Alpine, Harrison, Cove Neck, Cold Spring Harbor etc. there aren’t many working wives. Plus with kids it is very hard to bring in two good incomes. If your husband is making some good bucks by working 12 hours a day and being the go to guy no matter what it is hard for his wife to do the same. One of you most likely has to quit. Hey look at our President, Michelle had to hang up her career for the time being. If two people have demanding high paying careers and they throw three kids into the mix it is going to end up bad. Plus if you have a nice one acre house with a pool in Saddle River what is the point if both of you work all day and the kids are in day care?
Stu Says:
November 25th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
“If your wife has to work to afford a mortgage then you can’t afford a mortgage.”
What world are you living in?
If this was true, every McMansion would be bulldozed and small shed like dwelling structures would be built in their place. I’m thinking leen-tos.
Historical note: Father Guido Sarducci was the Vatican’s gossip columnist in the daily newspaper, L’Osservatore Romano.
We looked at Doylestown in Bucks County last April but it still seemed overpriced with ranchers in the 500k + range. Our criteria was based on a commute to Phila which we thought was a bit long (ca 2 hrs) but we didn’t think in terms of a commute to NYC. Maybe we ought to reconsider.
20 Iraq wars and we didn’t even get regime change on Wall Street. Shows you there’s no value for money when the military is not in charge.
“If your wife has to work to afford a mortgage then you can’t afford a mortgage.”
John,
Over 60% of families have both parents working.
That’s the only way that the level of consumerism could keep going as long as it did. That along with the increased availibility of credit.
If people took your advice and the level of consumerism was more inline with incomes, what do you think that would have done to your own income?
Without families working more, spending more and saving less, there wouldn’t be as much money flowing through wall st.
It is getting too depressing over here. Here is something to cheer you guys up (Spoiler Alert: NO ONIONS)
“State of New Jersey Is Insolvent
What Happens Now?
New Jersey is burning $5.2 billion a year. If the market is flat over the next 5 years, New Jersey will have a minimum of $118 billion in obligations and will be sitting on $31.8 billion. But what happens if the S&P falls to 450 or 600?
S&P 500 at 600 would be a drop of 24% from here. Assuming the pension plan assets dropped the same, plan assets would fall to $44 billion. On a drop to 450 on the S&P, plan assets would fall 43% from here to approximately $33 billion.
At $5.2 billion a year, New Jersey’s pension plan would be completely out of cash in about 6 years in my worst-case scenario of a drop to 450 on the S&P.
However, even on a drop to 600 or 700 on the S&P (highly likely in my estimation), New Jersey, would run out of cash rather quickly putting in $1 billion a year and taking out $5.2 billion a year while assuming growth rates of 8.5% that are totally unrealistic.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
I am not sure whether the deafening silence from our politicians and leaders regarding the now 12 trillion in bailouts is a distinct sign of absolute desperation or abject stupidity and corruption.
Both perhaps
John,
No working mothers means less contributors to 401K plans –> less money flowing into the market –> less fees for Wall St –> less income for Wall St.
This is in addition to the effects mentioned by Tom.
kettle1 Says:
November 25th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
I am not sure whether the deafening silence from our politicians and leaders regarding the now 12 trillion in bailouts is a distinct sign of absolute desperation or abject stupidity and corruption.
Both perhaps
PERHAPS THEY REALIZE THAT SAYING ANYTHING OF SUBSTANCE TO PEOPLE SUCH AS YOU WOULD BE REFLEXIVELY DERIDED OR DISMISSED, SO THEY DON’T BOTHER.
Jersey Jim: from two threads ago. Northern Italy is one of our favorite areas. Nuernburg is nice too, especially aound this time of year with the Christmas market. I fly in and out of the airport often. We’re thinking of looking for an apartment near one of the N. Italian lakes if NJ doesn’t pan out. The recent discussion of property taxes is the one thing that could break the deal. Even with a one time reduction on sale price, the bill for $12K+ will come every year for as long as you’re in the place.
Victorian,
I will cheer the day that governor of NJ proclaims that the pension for NJ state workers will immediately be replaced with a 401k. And why are we on the hook for a shortfall, but not rewarded during the prosperous times?
I’ve been saying this is going to happen for the last eight or so years. The money has to come from somewhere and lord knows it can’t all come from tax increases. Perhaps they’ll just float bonds to cover the pension. Is that what that ballot question was really about?
Our children are gonna be so pissed that they will probably refuse to work to spite us and our social security payments.
for all the scitech fans…
Nasa estimates put construction of a space elevator at about 800 billion. their estimates are generally end up costing 2X that, so lets round up to 2 trillion. That includes developing the needed tech. we could have built 6 of them…..
Or
24 manned Mars mission
or
20 manned permanent Moon colonies
we got robbed!!!!!
all that cash spent and no cool scifi toys
Stu Says:
November 25th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Paid $1.65 for gas in Union yesterday.
Stu: every time I figure I have a shot, you cut me down…..Speedway on 35 across from Nicholas is $1.67 :(
“all that cash spent and no cool scifi toys”
This is not entirely true. With all of this new federal spending, when the tax bill comes due, it will feels like the federal government is probing Uranus.
No need to yell Chifi.
I think this is another point we take opposite sides on. I think that they have made mostly poor choices in the matter so far. And from our previous discussion you felt that this was what needed to be done.
AT what point do you stop justifying the blatant money grabs and hold someone responsible. That is what will get me to listen Chifi. When they start to actually hold individuals responsible.
I think the politicians are silent for a couple of reasons. First, the outgoing and incomiong teams are trying hard not to step on each other’s toes. I hear the transition is going ok and it’s not likely all the computers will have the letter O missing from the keyboard when the new team takes over. Second, they don’t know what to say. They recognize we are in uncharted territory and if $13 trillion hasn’t made an improvement (not counting what other ogvernments have spent); it’s not likely 13 more will either. We have truely had the schnizel.
“AT what point do you stop justifying the blatant money grabs and hold someone responsible. That is what will get me to listen Chifi. When they start to actually hold individuals responsible.”
Here here!
according to this guy, NJ is bankrupt. Kaput…
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/11/state-of-new-jersey-is-insolvent.html
“AT what point do you stop justifying the blatant money grabs and hold someone responsible.”
As long as the money grabs benefit him and his colleagues, he’ll justify them.
I have subscriptions to a lot of business magazines so I get all sorts of pitches for business services and investing seminars.
Here’s the latest:
2 Complimentary VIP Tickets to The Trump Institute’s Way to Wealth Conference
Includes a free copy of The Donald’s book: “Think Like a Billionaire.”
Who wants to go?
Meanwhile, The Donald is tangled up in a dispute with Deutsche Bank about a tower he’s building in Chicago. Wants another extension on his loan. Condo sales aren’t what they thought they would be.
Grim, #98 is in moderation
“according to this guy”
You are referring to Mish. He is my second favorite prognosticator behind Nouriel.
#49 Tom:Comparing this to the last RE bubble may not be a good idea. This one was allowed to grow much bigger and I believe the consequences will be greater. We’re already starting to see that.
I agree. The last one is only a reference point, to indicate that at best it will play out like that one did. The reality IMO is that it will be much worse.
Chifi 91 – Sounds like a good reason to go to Nicholas. As if anyone needs any extra justification to go to Nicholas.
#62 yikes: I will be really PO’d if that happens. However, it will than factor in to my bid probably worth at least another 10% or more off of my bid.
#68 Yikes:prices are not falling that fast over here
Maybe they did not rise as fast as they did in NJ
From the Mish article –
“To top it off, the ongoing plan assumptions are 8.25%”.
I would presume that pension funds are supposed to be invested in super-safe prudent investment vehicles (Treasuries, AAA bonds etc.). That would probably give you a 3% appreciation rate per year.
WTF were they doing making an assumption of an 8% increase?
vic [104],
It’s been their, ours, benchmark for awhile. It’s one of the reasons they moved into alternative investemnts, chasing yield. Every taxpayer in NJ is fcuked.
S&P/Case-Shiller
http://tinyurl.com/3gquh5
Can I afford a decent house in NJ? Single income, one kid, stay at home wife, $150k down payment, $80k/yr income (Manhattan finance). Sadly, I think the answer is no.
It appears that these people travelled to Bolivia or Peru, and captured on video how inspired they were to be at one of the highest points of water in South America…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ddoa67YrcYU&feature=related
Tom,
What’s “decent”?
Q: Anyone seen Slumdog Millionaire? Good or useless?
Inflation dead? Horsefeathers…..
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aTwipXAunb_s&refer=us
Stu just cause 60% of parents have dual incomes does not make it make sense. Lets say you got two guys working or two women for that matter, one has a working spouse and one doesn’t. Lets say it is an industry like Wall St where bonus is 100%.
Person A has a spouse at home who in my opinion is ten times the job of going to work to cover for him when their is OT, client meetings, weekend work, back to school night, travel sick kids, broken boilers, roof leaks, sick parents etc. Plus he/she can take vacation any time as he does not have to coordinate with his spouses work. Person A makes your life easier.
Lets say Person B can’t always work late as he/she needs to pick up kids, can’t always travel when you need him/her, needs to take off when his spouse takes off which happens to be the week you want. You are stuck picking up the slack for person B and and he/she makes your life harder.
So of course you give Person A the slightly bigger raise and bonus each year as he gets more work done and makes your life easier. After ten years of this person A is making making the same with his stay at home spouse as person B is making on two incomes. Person B’s spouse is now working for free after ten years and if he/she works a full 30 year career she gets to work the last 20 for free!!!
3b,
I think this bubble has more parallels with the tech stock bubble. The period of disbelief is the same and it’s bursting about as slowly. That one never recovered except for a handful of companies and now even google took a huge hit.
The difference is the investment banks and VC’s made out like bandits during the tech bubble. Individual investors and employees at those companies got hosed in many cases.
The big money was made taking companies public. WIth IB’s giving out loans and merging with commercial banks they wound up bubbling their own industry. It’s a bit comical in my opinion.
Couldn’t bust 840.
Yes, I did a 160K mortgage on 70K. Real Tight but doable.
Tom Says:
November 25th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Can I afford a decent house in NJ? Single income, one kid, stay at home wife, $150k down payment, $80k/yr income (Manhattan finance). Sadly, I think the answer is no.
John,
I know what you are trying to say. Gator and I have done the math many times over. Unless you have 3 kids, your wife can virtually work at McDonald’s and it still makes sense to dump the kids in daycare. I have done the math.
John,
I know what you are trying to say. Gator and I have done the math many times over. Unless you have 3 kids, your spouse can virtually work at Burger King and it still makes sense to dump the kids in daycare. I have done the math.
Whew….by my calculation there are now 10 regular posters on this website having the same conversation….every other day. *Sigh*
Essex:
When did we ever have a conversation about the attractions (?) of onions? :)
The Current Depression is about one thing and one thing only, Massive Government & Financial Fraud, embedded in the “Greatest Ponzi Scheme Ever”.
The main difference between doing it with an onion and doing it with a women is with an onion it is the man who cries afterwards. The main similarity is either way you have stinky fingers and the best selling point is there is no cuddling afterwards with an onion.
“I think I need to go punch the clown.”
is that like “go kill some kittens?”
or maybe “get some onion rings?”
sl
chi [111],
Certain sectors, inflation is alive and well. Just look at the adjusted monetary base; To the Moon, Alice.
I really don’t know whether my brain gets more warped from work or from this blog.
I think this headline translates into buy gold:
O: Economic rescue will trump deficit fight
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/obama_economy
More like beating the purple headed fellow in the turtle neck sweater.
or V-neck
118…Whew…good point… OK Carry on.
One thought about ‘work’ is the nature of being busy and engaged….a stay at home wife (or husband) can be bored….and boredom can be a dangerous thing for a marriage. Just a thought….
John,
Most famlies where both parents work it is because they couldn’t survive on one income. For some families, if both parents don’t work they can’t afford a home to live in. They don’t have the option of staying at home by the pool.
In the example I quoted from the article comparing today’s families to the 1970’s family, the family is making twice as much with 2 incomes but still borrowing more and saving less.
Imagine what this economy would be like if these families spend half as much as they are spending today. It would probably be much healthier, but everyone on wall st wouldn’t be getting a 100%+ bonus.
Plus, with the divorce rate so high, it’s probably a good idea for women to keep up their skills in case their husbands can’t afford to pay enough in alimony to keep them home.
I still say not ‘every’ decision from owning a home…to buying a car…to working….is done for completely economic reasons….passion and desire play a part.
Long term Sell Signal?
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/25/newest-harvard-mbas-flocked-to-wall-street/
Re: 116 / Stu
Please expand on your Burger King point…The Kid has a stay at home wife, and think this conversation needs to be explored a little more.
stu/clot, what a ride! are you still buckled or ready for another run?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SRS#chart14:symbol=srs;range=5d;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
130…Maybe, and I am speculating…stu hates hanging out with his kids and would rather flip burgers? (OK, i am joking)
bi [131],
Worry about your ledger. What you don’t have on, can’t hurt you.
109 sybarite: a place you are happy to come to every day. not too far a commute. place where you feel safe to walk around. etc…
The Kid (132):
It’s just simple math. Day care is 1K a month or 12K a year. For a full time job, one must make $5.75 an hour to break even on day care costs alone. Then if your spouse lands a job with health care benefits, the savings are even greater as their employer will defray health care costs. I also believe that a good day care center has certain socialization benefits over home care. When researching day care facilities, it is important to find one that resembles a school and less of a playroom. The music enrichment, computer courses, foreign language instruction and teacher driven environment would be hard to match at home. Additionally, their recreational facilities should be top notch with pools for the summer and cooking activities for the colder months. I do not say this with bias towards my personal situation. I watch how my son interacts with other peers at the Little Gym and/or Gymbaree and he is so much more independent then the other home schooled kids. He, as well as other day care kids have no separation anxiety and tend to be the better behaved. It help if the day care is curriculum-centric rather than child-directed in nature.
Then there is the advantages of having a working spouse. Both parents contribute to social security and receive 401k matches making reducing the couples retirement age. Additionally, it is easier for the spouse to hold a job and a lot more difficult for spouses who have been out of the workforce for 5 or more years to obtain a new one. Sure, it’s a bit of a mad scramble come dinner time, but to us it is well worth it.
If one spouse is highly compensated, then so be it. For the other 99.5%, it hardly makes financial sense to stay at home.
For every additional child, figure you have to make another $5 per hour to justify working.
It is possible for one parent to stay home with the children on a slightly above average income. You just don’t go out to eat, you don’t take vacations, you don’t buy new cars and you don’t buy your clothes at the mall. Every family makes its own decision. I ditched a career to stay home with three kids and I’ve never regretted it. The stress level was at a minimum because there was no juggling schedules over business trips or sick kids, I was able to take care of elderly relatives and we have a home cooked dinner every night at the same time. A boring lifestyle for some, but it worked for us.
Tom: “Can I afford a decent house in NJ? Single income, one kid, stay at home wife, $150k down payment, $80k/yr income (Manhattan finance). Sadly, I think the answer is no.”
At 350k – 400k I definitely think a “starter home” is within your reach.
Essex,
I love my son almost as much as I loved flipping burgers, which I did for two years prior to turning age 16. When your son is in daycare, you value every minute you get to spend with him. Unlike many parents, we run a disciplined and unspoiled household which allows us to take the little Gator everywhere. Even fancy restaurants and cold football games. Perhaps we were lucky to get such a well-behaved child. I think a lot of it has to do with upbringing. We do a lot more than simply plop our son in front of the TV and strive to make him independent. My parents raised seven of us, so it was the only way. And most of the time, my mother worked as a substitute teacher.
BTW, we signed the little guy up for his first ski lessons at Smuggler’s Notch in January. Some say three and a half is too young. I think I waited too long.
And to those who choose to stay at home, I admire your decision. More than anything, how you choose to parent in those first four years will have a greater impact on your child’s success than anything you could possibly do for them in the remaining twelve.
BI,
I’m just sitting back and waiting for my price. If the market somehow rallies to 10K, I will dip into the 3X stuff.
As I said before, commercial real estate is screwed. I don’t think it is 90% screwed, which is what SRS was saying at 295. But I can easily see it 20% screwed. Just as oil didn’t make sense to sell at 75/barrel in 2007 to double to 150/barrel in 2008. I will always be content to sit on the sideline and wait for my price. Especially considering the increased volatility in recent markets. To go in early is a death wish in an ultra fund that you don’t desire to day trade.
138…just messin with ya Stu…I do think playgroups are big for kids….when they are little. Not a fan of daycare….we did the Nanny thing….had two different ones in 3 years…the 2nd one was a real find. Degreed early childhood person….amazingly creative…very pleased with how mine is coming along….
P.S. the whole ‘lil gator’ moniker….extremely dumb. Sorry.
Stu
Good summary of the cost/benefit analysis that we all go through with daycare. We are lucky to be able to have a happy medium. We put Jr. in wonderful little daycare within walking distance of our house for 3 days/week. I agree that the social interaction is worthwhile. I am also luck that since I work form home a few days a week, I can pop in and see the little guy from time to time.
I know that Essex. The way it’s looking, I might end up a stay at home dad soon :(
Stu Says:
November 25th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
The Kid (132): I also believe that a good day care center has certain socialization benefits over home care. When researching day care facilities, it is important to find one that resembles a school and less of a playroom. The music enrichment, computer courses, foreign language instruction and teacher driven environment would be hard to match at home. Additionally, their recreational facilities should be top notch with pools for the summer and cooking activities for the colder months. I do not say this with bias towards my personal situation. I watch how my son interacts with other peers at the Little Gym and/or Gymbaree and he is so much more independent then the other home schooled kids. He, as well as other day care kids have no separation anxiety and tend to be the better behaved. It help if the day care is curriculum-centric rather than child-directed in nature.
Stu: ehm…maybe this is anedotal evidence?…I think the bulk of people would view your comments as a rationalization…EVERY CHILD IS UNIQUE THOUGH….I am only commenting not critiquing…
Agreed. Pretty much anecdotal.
This is primarily why we’re looking to buy in 2010. if they can burn through 1/4 of their $ in a quarter, where will it be at the start of 2011?
probably being overly pessimistic on our part, but if superinflation follows deflation … all that cash everyone is sitting on becomes worthless
(right?)
Honestly, I think most smart kids can handle that level of stimulation, but are they really emotionally ready to be little adults? My son was born in October. He is sharp as a freakin’ whip. Regardless, I may set him up to be the oldest in his class, because it is appropriate thing to do. From the time I was 6, I had to be 16. There is no need to repeat a mistake.
Stu Says:
November 25th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
Agreed. Pretty much anecdotal.
Stu: You are consistently the most level-headed poster here. When someone tees you off, they have the burden of proof for reasonableness.
Hey Stu….been there….let’s put it this way….I went through the tech run up….had almost as much time off sometimes as I did working…but I did learn how to snowboard…and I enjoyed the heck out of my downtime in a rented place out in Morris Co. on a couple of acres….since then however I did a chapter change in life went for a career change — steady income vs. get rich. I like it …. a lot….
HE (52)-
“They are paying 18% on their notes. The local shylock doesn’t charge that much!”
The local shylock has better- and less riskier- customers than Ara Hovnanian.
They should suspend usury laws when it comes to this guy. I wouldn’t feel comfortable lending him a Kleenex.
Just so everybody knows:
Today’s 800 bn money bomb finally loosened up mortgage rates. All our investors- across the board- reset to reflect a conforming 30-fixed at 5.5%.
My best guess is that we’ll get a pretty good run around this rate point…at least until the next panic.
For the record, I think the potential borrower pool in NJ right now will greet the new 5.5% rate with a great, big yawn.
yikes (58)-
Jack Ham and Jack Lambert immediately come to mind.
Tard (64)-
That’s OK. We won’t ask. Hell, somebody has to sell pet food over the internet…
“As I’ve stated previously, I own and manage a small business, and no, I’m not telling you a damn thing about what the business does.”
[59] stu
Wasn’t it you that asked that references to a certain root vegetable that provoked unnatural urges in John be dropped?
yikes (67)-
FWIW, I’m building the position of a lifetime right now in SKF and SRS. SRS spent a decent part of today down into the 120s, which is just ridiculous, given the current circumstances. SKF hasn’t fallen as far, but still represents extreme value in the 160s.
As we’ve seen, it doesn’t take much to ignite this pair, and I’m sure that as soon as the narcotic effect of everyone’s Thursday turkeys has worn off, we’ll be back to relentless waves of selling that will take Dow under 8K on yet another re-test and cause the pupils in Kudlow’s eyes to reset at the aperture reserved for only junkies and the terminally stupid.
Hope Now reaches out to help; nobody wants it.
Hope for Homeowners recasts loans; borrowers still default.
GGP (owns Bridgewater Mall, Woodbury) hires bankruptcy lawyers.
Commercial RE delinquencies explode.
REITs barfing it up.
Gubmint unleashes 800 bn money bomb to stimulate mortgage lending…but where are the borrowers?
Stu,
We did Steamboat 2 years ago for the same reason (well regarded kiddie program). She took to it reasonably well.
Agree on daycare, particularly a school component. In Phila, we enrolled her in an expat school for the foreign language exposure, and when we moved here, we used Zadies in Summit because they start right in on reading, writing and math (basic, mind you). And we have the au pair continue to give her lessons. It is quite apparent that she is already ahead of many of her peers in kindergarten (today, she wrote “my dog talks” Why, I don’t know, but she wrote it).
Also, had we not relied on daycare, I would hate to think of the socialization problems we would have now. Great kid but not the best behaved. I had been quite concerned about her socialization and behavior, but once she started kindergarten, she became one of the in crowd, and has quite the posse of friends.
[120] john
waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much information there, dude.
Love to meet you at a GTG, but I am not sure about a handshake.
nom – Do you know up to what age/grade Zadies take kids (do they have a prek-/k curriculum)? How long is their waiting list? Thanks!
vodka (93)-
No one will be held responsible.
No one.
“Gubmint unleashes 800 bn money bomb to stimulate mortgage lending…but where are the borrowers?”
Clot,
Don’t be so pessimistic. Easy credit it got us into this mess, it should be able to get us out.
Just like not brushing your teeth can lead to cavities, not brushing your teeth even more can get rid of your cavities.
And teeth.
Indians win US baseball contract
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7747553.stm
Our next President will be from India as well.
Clot,
What percentage of potential borrowers get approved based on the current lending standards?
Afe,
Zadies has a day care so they start very young. Lil nom started midyear at age 4. They do seem to have a cirriculum but I don’t know what it is. Pricy place though
Nom,
I couldn’t resist the onion picture. I still don’t get what kind of mind even causes one to ponder the humping of an onion.
The skiing thing is so I can have a ski partner. Gator’s knees are no good (keep your comments to yourself on this one John). I learned to ski when I was five and really enjoy the tranquility of the experience. This is why I won’t ski in Pennsylvania or in Southern New York, except at Plattekill (secret locals resort where they don’t groom half the mountain).
ChiFi, I appreciate the kind words. I have always learned to love thy enemy and learn from critique. Not only am I level-headed, but I’m willing to change my position as the facts dictate.
Ryan is smart as a whip as well, but will never be pushed to do anything he does not enjoy. Well besides learning to kick field goals to defray college costs. My folks pushed me so hard that I rebelled like James Dean. I am not terribly proud of my frosh year in college. I was both on academic and residence life probation. Somehow I ended up as a building manager (supervised the RAs) and graduated with honors. A 1.8 is hard to move!!!
Clot – Too early, but I know you like to play with fire. As much as I don’t expect the market to recover anytime soon, I’ve seen stranger things happen.
5.5% ain’t gonna help anyone but a few of the option armers to avoid a complete implosion.
An old, but classic article about the over the top spending at CN. Makes me a bit nostalgic. They really are cutting back now. No more daily free lunch at VF. The end of days is near.
http://www.slate.com/id/2481/
nom- About how much/mo – if you don’t mind? Any other daycares that you would recommend in that area?
‘Lil afe’ will be about 4 1/2 by then too. Given that we are still renting but plan to rent in a new town this coming year – we have been debating town A where she will meet KG cut-off coupled with a nanny vs. town B (close to summit) where we would enroll her in a daycare with a school-curriculum since she does not meet KG requirements. Thanks for your feedback.
Thanks Vic, we told you, Citi, the same 3 years ago. How about the ludicrous purchase of that failed hedge fund? It’s a dysfunctional family, break it up.
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) — Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit laid blame for the bank’s streak of losses and decimated stock on prior management’s “tremendous concentration” of real estate assets.
“What went wrong is we had tremendous concentration in the sense that we put a lot of our money to work against U.S. real estate,” Pandit, 51, said today in an interview with PBS’s Charlie Rose show scheduled to air tonight. “It’s a lot easier to get into these situations than it is to get out of them.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ap84CRQcqHmk&refer=home
re: skiing at 3 1/2 –
it could go either way. with my first 2 kids, it worked out really well.
it was so different with my third. he would lie down flat on his back on the hill with all that equipment on (remember they also have to have helmets) and i had to struggle to get him up with all my equipment. the best part for him was the m&m machine in the lodge.
nevertheless, we went several times a year,mostly vermont and maine, and now they are all older, and good skiers – much better than me.
NJ Introduces Program to Prevent Foreclosure
As the foreclosure rate in New Jersey continues to rise, local state and federal lawmakers introduced a new federal program aimed at saving struggling communities. WNYC’s Bob Hennelly has more.
REPORTER: Senator Robert Menendez and Governor Jon Corzine were in Paterson, New Jersey to introduce a new federal program to help prevent abandoned properties from depressing property values. Paterson Mayor Jose Torres says there are more than 2,000 foreclosed homes in his city. The program will provide $62 million in federal aid to buy foreclosed properties and rehab them into affordable housing. Paterson is one of five local governments to take part in the program, the city accounts for 35 percent of foreclosed properties state wide. For WNYC, I’m Bob Hennelly.
State of New Jersey Is Insolvent
The state of New Jersey is insolvent. Bankrupt might be a better word. New Jersey is $60 billion in the hole on pension funding and the Governor is planning on skipping payments in a “pension payment holiday” until 2012 so as to not increase property taxes. To top it off, the ongoing plan assumptions are 8.25%. Sorry NJ, that simply is not going to happen.
New Jersey is burning $5.2 billion a year. If the market is flat over the next 5 years, New Jersey will have a minimum of $118 billion in obligations and will be sitting on $31.8 billion. But what happens if the S&P falls to 450 or 600?
S&P 500 at 600 would be a drop of 24% from here. Assuming the pension plan assets dropped the same, plan assets would fall to $44 billion. On a drop to 450 on the S&P, plan assets would fall 43% from here to approximately $33 billion.
At $5.2 billion a year, New Jersey’s pension plan would be completely out of cash in about 6 years in my worst-case scenario of a drop to 450 on the S&P.
However, even on a drop to 600 or 700 on the S&P (highly likely in my estimation), New Jersey, would run out of cash rather quickly putting in $1 billion a year and taking out $5.2 billion a year while assuming growth rates of 8.5% that are totally unrealistic.
dblko,
if your looking into foreign currency, I always advice: only if your net worth is over 1e6.
SAS
I’ve heard that $50/crude is here for awhile, to help bankrupt some middle east countries.
SAS
then, its time to pay the piper.
SAS
I’ve been working alot btw here and DC.
I haven’t had time to evaluate current economical trends.
feeling a little out of the loop.
SAS
I remember back when the write offs were only going to be a trillion or so, now they through more than that much away in bailout programs in two days. I smell the panic.
kettle,
“3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation—25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate”
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911
Stu – re: “what kind of mind even causes one to ponder the humping of an onion.”
If you really want a laugh rent the Jim Carey movie “Me, Myself and Irene” the Farrelly Brothers movie. Watch the scene in the Hotel Room and look on the floor for the watermelon with the hole in it. Then watch the out takes, a scene was cut from the movie but anyway he heats the damm thing up in an oven first.
Beyond funny even if you are an old fart or some snob from Brigadoon.
vic (168)-
Don’t know. I don’t even know if Fannie/Freddie or FHA track and report that stat.
If you’re going Fannie, forget it with a FICO under 620. FHA? Under 580 is pretty much an automatic rejection.
gosh this is funny. come on Bednar, stop pulling our leg.
Why can’t you live on your salary, “Reinvestor?” Why would you need to pull money out of your declining asset? i mean, real estate?
here’s the new strategy: Don’t buy stuff if you can’t afford it. pretty simple concept.
I really hope there is a Tard. He’s had over two years to hedge his idiotic RE investment in several creative ways, yet rather than actually DO anything, he comes here, taunts the female posters and generally bleats and whines like a constipated donkey.
I meet or talk to five people a day whose mindset pretty much mirrors this fool. I say screw ’em all. Every bust takes its victims, and just like that House of Pain rap goes, Tard’s “just another victim, kid”.
S&P/Case-Shiller condo indices debuted today.
A little disappointing this didn’t get any attention from mainstream media sources or this blog.
In the New York area, condo prices declined 2% during the past year and have fallen 4% from the 2006 peak.
According to the data, condo prices in the New York area are plateauing at a very high level, not crashing as some people predicted.
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/2,3,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,6,0,0,0,0,0.html
Lurker,
Perhaps my methodology differs from S&P’s, but I’ve notice obvious drops in prices in the central NJ market. And the general consensus is that declines will continue for some time. NYC proper may not have experienced identical declines, but they are certain. Anyone who denies that is either blind or has an agenda to push.
Clotpoll Says:
November 25th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
yikes (67)- FWIW, I’m building the position of a lifetime right now in SKF and SRS. SRS spent a decent part of today down into the 120s, which is just ridiculous, given the current circumstances. SKF hasn’t fallen as far, but still represents extreme value in the 160s.
clot: Are you putting in reasonable stops on this bitch? I’m just saying that the trading tomorrow and Friday may be much more %ucked that you could imagine. This method is always how you really blow it in the casino. Make ANOTHER bet, not a MEGA bet.
chi (189)-
Stops are in. Light volume and half-sessions are a bitch.
I’m hoping SKF gets roughed up tomorrow so I can average down some more.
Many people who post frequently on this blog have expressed their unquestioned belief that a dramatic housing crash will occur in this area.
During this groupthink, these posters have avoided compelling evidence that contradicts their viewpoint.
By the way, the S&P/C-S condo index covers New York City and the suburbs, including central New Jersey counties of Union, Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, Mercer, and Monmouth.
lots of people ask “where’s the anger?”
i think Joe Sixpack is already revolting, by defaulting on mortgage/credit card debt. this will be a different kind of revolution. why play by the rules when the big boys don’t????
why pick up pitchfork and torch and march on Washington? it’s alot easier to live in a house beyond your means for a year RENT FREE and go out piling up credit card debt on frivolous objects of desire. you don’t have to be in great physical shape to spend and default. marching on Washington requires a level of physical fitness that most Americans are not capable of.
very sad!
lurkerd Says:
“During this groupthink, these posters have avoided compelling evidence that contradicts their viewpoint.”
Hank? Hank??? Is that you?
sl
lurk (191)-
Every morning at 6 AM, I turn off the alarm and wish I could avoid the compelling evidence of how bad things are getting.
Come spend a week with me. Come meet my clients. Peruse the new, online Hunterdon Co sheriff sale lists (they only went online two weeks ago; before that, there was no need). Come with me to Somerville & meet Sheriff Provenzano. He can tell you how they blew thru this year’s sheriff sale budget by the end of June and how a sheriff sale now takes around 18 months because of the backlog.
Since we’re the ones in denial, how are you playing this? Looking to buy before you get priced out? Picking up some good investment properties?
If we’re wrong to be on the short side of RE, how are you playing the other side of the trade?
Please elaborate, rather than trolling and baiting like so many so-called “bulls” who came here before you. Up until now, the only thing they have in common is that they all got carried out on their shields.
NEW YORK — Two New York City Council members say that Citigroup should show its thanks for a federal bailout by sharing the naming rights to the new Mets ballpark in Queens.
The struggling bank is slated to pay $400 million over the next 20 years to name the stadium Citi Field.
The bank made the commitment years ago, when it was flush with cash. Now that Citigroup is getting billions of dollars in federal aid, Staten Island Republicans Vincent Ignizio and James Oddo say the ballpark’s name should be changed to Citi/Taxpayer Field.
Citigroup and Mets chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon have been saying that they have no plan to alter the naming-rights deal for the ballpark, which hosts its regular-season opener April 13.
Wilpon and Citigroup spokesman Steve Silverman said they had no comment on the proposal.
Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press
From tomorrow’s WSJ:
Fed Aid Sets Off a Rush to Refinance
By RUTH SIMON and JAMES R. HAGERTY
The Federal Reserve’s attempt to stabilize the housing market set off a chain reaction across the U.S. on Tuesday, dropping interest rates and quickly spurring a burst of refinancing activity by borrowers eager to lower their mortgage costs.
Some brokers said it was the most activity they’ve seen in at least one year, although there was no way to determine to volume of refinancing.
At Bank of America Corp., call volume was roughly twice what was expected at call centers and via the Internet, said Matt Vernon, national sales executive. “It’s the folks who have been sitting on the sideline. They’re jumping in with this news.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122765938507058417.html
Chi – If it’s Taxpayer field, do we each get a turn in the luxury boxes?
there’s a PDF file with 2008 rankings here.
http://www.phillymag.com/articles/the_top_50_school_districts_2008/
we’re targeting council rock because new hope/solebury (while a bit closer to NJ) just has too much of a “sticks” feel to us.
seriously john, you have no clue. what % of families just have one person working, and enjoy a comfortable life with no car payments, no CC debt, two vacations a year (and im not talking about the jersey shore), investing in the market, socking away in 401k, and being able to stash away 6 months living expenses for if you lose your job?
we’re both working now to save up as much as we can, and the plan is to have the wife stay home for about 5-6 years to raise the kids.
if we go back to Grim’s ‘new year prediction’ post, i wrote something about nj and bankrupt
201…Hmmm Grim….someone admires your “bolg”….perhaps a love connection? Happy Thanksgiving…..;-)
John’s statement about not being able to afford a mortgage if the wife needs to work to do so is controversial, but I have heard (don’t know the source) that dual-income families are much more likely to go bankrupt than single-income families. You have twice as much chance of one of those people losing their jobs.
On the earlier daycare topic – I brought my kid to a birthday party where all the kids there were daycare kids. The kids played together well and had a blast. The very next week we went to a party at the same place where all the kids (except mine) were nanny-raised kids (the same age). The difference between the two groups was astounding. The nanny kids didn’t know how to play with each other, got into each other’s faces, went crying to mama/daddy continually during the party, and didn’t even know how to eat without practically being spoon-fed or making a giant mess. The daycare kids sat at the table eating pizza and later cake together happily, while the nanny kids couldn’t sit at the table for more than 5 minutes. At one point all the kids were running off in their own directions while my kid sat calmly eating pizza at the table alone.
I don’t like the idea of putting babies under 1 in daycare, and the daycare has to be decent, but there are certain very noticeable benefits among toddlers who are in daycare versus those raised by nannies. Socialization is critical.
Since when was this a discussion about nanny versus daycare? Clueless……
COURTESY IMMACULATA HIGH SCHOOL Standing with their awards are representatives of the Immaculata Marching Band including ( left to right) Alessia Donato of Bridgewater, Andrea Polaski of Hillsborough, Alli Rommel of