From the Record:
Multifamily projects in slowdown
Builders who started condo and town house projects during the housing boom are now cutting prices or putting the brakes on development as they face a steep downturn in sales.
“We’re not going to start any new projects for over a year,” said William Rosato, president of Tarragon Corp., a New York builder that has developed a number of multifamily projects in North Jersey.
“Builders are trying to survive; it’s a very difficult period,” said Bernard Markstein, senior economist at the National Association of Home Builders, which recently reported that its index measuring builders’ confidence in the condo market is at the lowest level since the index was created in 2003.
For home buyers, the builders’ troubles translate to lower prices and a wider range of property choices. And buyers often find they can get upgrades on kitchen cabinets, appliances and flooring for no extra charge.
Nonetheless, many potential buyers are wary, either because they can’t get mortgages, they’re worried about their job security or they are waiting for home prices to fall further.
…
Builder George Vallone of Hoboken Brownstone Co. put a 438-condo development in Jersey City on hold in response to pessimistic housing forecasts. He thinks he’ll have to wait six to 12 months before starting. In the meantime, he’s researching green building techniques, which he hopes to incorporate into the development.Tarragon put off starting the third of its three Trio condo towers in Palisades Park until the market comes back, probably in 2010, Rosato said. The first two buildings, which each have 70 units, are almost sold out — though the company had to offer discounts totaling as much as 25 percent, through a combination of incentives and price cuts.
Tarragon, which has reported millions in losses, says it may have to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. It is trying to restructure its debt and looking for an equity investor.
In another response to the housing market, Tarragon converted two new Hoboken buildings, originally planned as condos, to apartments. A number of other builders are making the same move. The rental market in North Jersey remains strong, so it’s not too difficult to find tenants. But rents are unlikely to offer builders the same profit margins as sales, Markstein said.
From the AP:
Homeowners refinance, put savings in piggy banks
When mortgage rates dropped to the lowest levels in almost a year, Warren Zeger seized the opportunity to slash $720 off his monthly mortgage payment by refinancing his home in Potomac, Md.
Just don’t expect him to spend the savings.
“I’d love to tell you I’m going to spend it to help prop up the economy, but we’ve tightened our belts,” said Zeger, 61, a retired attorney. “I plan on holding on to it.”
Zeger echoed homeowners The Associated Press interviewed nationwide who have taken advantage of lower rates since Nov. 25th. They planned to stuff the money they saved under the mattress or pay off bills. Refinance activity has surged as interest rates tumbled about 1 percentage point to around 5.5 percent in response to the Federal Reserve’s plan to scoop up $600 billion of mortgage-related securities.
From the AP:
Layoffs expected to decimate Wall Street ranks
The U.S. financial services industry is witnessing the bursting of yet another bubble. This time, it’s the industry itself.
Bloated by years of frenzied growth, Wall Street banks and other firms are shedding tens of thousands of jobs and slashing entire divisions in their most drastic downsizing since the Great Depression. The moves promise to upend financial services and investment options for Americans from Wall Street to Main Street.
…
“I think it’s pretty clear that the whole financial sector is going to be smaller than it was,” said Kevin Logan, chief U.S. economist at investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort. “It’s not going to just consolidate; it’s going to shrink.”
…
Through October, 130,000 financial jobs had been eliminated throughout the industry this year, according to employment firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
The elimination of 53,000 jobs at Citigroup — part of a 20 percent downsizing at the firm — will raise the number to around 180,000. That would be the industry’s biggest yearly contraction ever.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is shedding 10 percent of workers at its investment bank, matching planned cuts at rivals Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley. State Street Corp. said it will cut 1,600 to 1,800 jobs, or 6 percent of the investment services company’s global work force.
From Reuters:
U.S. housing crisis also hitting the wealthy
Less than a year ago, few people in this affluent Chicago suburb expected the subprime U.S. housing crisis would hit close to home.
“We thought Hinsdale was virtually immune and we wouldn’t see any foreclosures, but we have,” said Dave Hanna, managing partner of Chicago-based Prudential Preferred CRE and president of the Chicago Association of Realtors. “Nowhere is immune.”
With a pretty red-brick downtown lined with stores, good schools and a railway line to nearby Chicago, Hinsdale has been popular among wealthy doctors, lawyers and executives.
It has also seen a 37 percent jump in foreclosure filings this year, according to research firm RealtyTrac, and local data shows the average home sale price has fallen to $1.07 million from $1.15 million in September 2007.
The consequences of years of devil-may-care mortgage lending during the U.S. housing boom were first felt among America’s poorer home owners. But if that is where it started, it did not stop there.
“People think this is just a lower-income problem,” said Mabel Guzmann, a Century 21 realtor in Chicago. “It’s not.”
From MarketWatch:
UBS may cut thousands more jobs: reports
Switzerland’s troubled financial-services giant UBS may announce as many as 4,500 more job cuts in coming weeks, Swiss newspapers reported Sunday. Since the summer of 2007, UBS has already slashed about 9,000 jobs, or 11% of its workforce, according to media reports. The UBS news comes after Credit Suisse said Friday it will cut roughly 5,300 jobs, or 11% of its staff, after posting a steep quarterly loss.
http://economics.alltop.com/
Sean @ 468 – Did you check out this link from the comments section of your Globe story?
Oh my….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpcgRlXe40k
For those of you who blog from work – you could be doing…
spreadsheet art…
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/07/business/07rating.php?page=1
International Herald Tribune
Debt Watchdogs: Tamed or Caught Napping?
A bit of history on Moody’s..4 pgs.
“A standard of profitability at many companies is its operating margin.
“From 2000 to 2007, company documents show, operating margins averaged 53%.”
Even thriving companies like Exxon and Microsoft had margins of 17 and 36 percent respectively in 2007. But Moody’s and its counterparts were not founded to be profit machines.”
My arm went from 4-3/8 down to 3-1/4, I will wait to refinance next year or whenever 1 year tbill goes up. Not bad rates right now.
Sean 471 last thread. There be trouble a brewing, tough talk & the Paky Pres is in a box, these clowns are very popular in parts of his country & his security forces were in on it. Damned if you do damned if you don’t. Boom!
Another food scare: this time it’s dioxin in pork from Irland. Wonder if any of the stuff made it into the US.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aqYcUzEXFnjk&refer=europe
http://seekingalpha.com/article/109444-calculating-a-housing-bottom-volume-vs-price
Calculating a Housing Bottom: Volume vs. Price
Interesting take on perspectives on housing bottom.
dblko
buffalo mozzarella has the same Dioxin issue.
its due to burning garbage in the region of itallu where it is made. The dioxin laced smoke settles on the grass that the cows there eat and the dioxin end up in the cows milk and hence the cheese made with it
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7314244.stm
homeland security USA:
just saw a commercial for it, its a new show…..
HOLY PROPAGANDA BATMAN!!!!
Mike,
I have read reports that there are cooler heads on both sides trying to avoid a confrontation. one can only hope that they prevail.
Kettle Hoping it is only tough talk, I’m more worried about action on the part of the Pakistani President & what it could lead to there. I would think India has the sense not to attack. We are just saber rattling. Very unstable there & they have nukes.
MIke,
The IMF just bought control over the pakistan government with the billion dollar IMF bailout. The IMF is for all intents and purposes an extension of the US and some european countries.
Indirectly the US and europe have their tentacles very deep into pakistan
google “pakistan IMF bailout” there are numerous article discussing the onerous conditions for the 7.6 billion bailout.
#13 kettle1
Australia has a show called Border Security
http://au.tv.yahoo.com/b/border-security/117/series-information
It’s pretty good. It’s a show about people getting busted at the airport, rounding up illegal aliens working in factories, catching fishing poachers. Highly entertaining.
Jets 0 and 3 in Cali.
Can just see the Post’s headline.
California Screaming
Barien, mike
The russians have a saying:
the US is better at propaganda then the russians, but our problem is that we believe our own propaganda.
From old friend at Hudson Tea:
LONG time no hear! are you all OK?
We were so right not to “buy” (aka=rent from the bank), knowing full well the market top kickers were going to be in sellers’ Hell shortly…Owners here, desperate to sell because of job changes, can’t sell, and can’t even rent. There are many apts. for rent in the tea buildings, by owner.
dum dum dum……..
Fears of a million layoffs a month in corporate America
As many as a million American jobs could be lost every month by next spring as businesses struggle to raise capital in financial markets consumed by fear, according to a new analysis. November was the worst month in the US labour market since the oil crisis of 1974, as more than 500,000 US workers were laid off, according to official figures released on Friday.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/07/recession-job-losses
hery grim, looks like you are famous again…
Grim Job Report Not Showing Full Picture
As bad as the headline numbers in Friday’s employment report were, they still made the job market look better than it really is The unemployment rate reached its highest point since 1993, and overall employment fell by more than a half million jobs. Yet that was just the beginning. Thanks to the vagaries of the way that the government’s best-known jobs statistics are calculated, they have overlooked many workers who have been deeply affected by the current recession.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/business/economy/06idle.html?hp
looks like Pres O could start off in an even hotter seat then he thought….
World Bank warns Gaza banks may collapse
The World Bank and International Monetary Fund warned Saturday that Gaza’s severe cash shortage may cause local banks to collapse. It was the most serious warning yet regarding the consequences of Israel’s continued refusal to allow new money infusions into banks in the Palestinian territory.Israel has not allowed money to enter Gaza since October, barring Palestinian banks from transferring cash to their Gaza branches. It is part of a larger blockade imposed on Gaza in response to Palestinian rocket attacks from the territory controlled by the Islamic militant group Hamas.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-12-06-gaza-banks_N.htm?csp=34
the greatest generation is facing a less then great ending…
Pension Funds Take Another Pounding
If there’s any doubt America faces its gravest financial crisis in decades, consider this sobering evidence: Pension plans for some of the 1,500 largest U.S. companies have lost about $280 billion so far this year.
In November alone, pension plans lost about $130 billion, marking the second consecutive month of record declines, according to a new report from Mercer, the financial consulting firm. The companies Mercer studied — those in the Standard & Poor’s 1,500 index, which includes household names like 3M and Coca Cola — reported their pension plans ended 2007 with a $60 billion surplus. So the swiftness of this year’s decline is astonishing.
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1864513,00.html
“World Bank warns Gaza banks may collapse”
you better hope that doesn’t happen.
And those dumb Isreal better wise up.
SAS
SAS,
i think that the bank collapse is intentional. there is a lot of bad blood since hamas won the elections. Both the US and isreal were very embarrassed by that.
SAS,
that is just 1 of many conflicts we are about to see start up.
we still have india/pakistan on the burner and we have mexico fighting a defacto war against the drug lords, who seem to be better organized and better armed. dont forget about russia, and its former satellites
“i think that the bank collapse is intentional”
yes. I agree. but, I really don’t want to see this happen. For the ramifications geopolitically, and I’ve got a god-son in the Gaza.
SAS
“we still have india/pakistan on the burner”
yup. Mambi smells funny to me.
and we have mexico fighting a defacto war against the drug lords
US & Mexico ship it in, the rogue elements want their cut, and Wall St bankers won’t allow that to happen. The rogue cartel have joined together and giving the US backed mexicans a good run.
“dont forget about russia, and its former satellites”
US & NATO better learn to get off Russia’s back or we can have god damn wwIII.
SAS
I believe the powers that be want wars on many fronts to:
a) maken money by finance both sides of the conflicts.
b) distraction from a really bad economical climate.
c) have the people engage in a false sense of patriotism, so they fight eachother, rather than the real crooks.
SAS
SAS,
we agree on all points
however points b and c are really the same.
If the US was smart, a US/Russia partnership could have huge benefits for each. Alas, there is to much baggage for that to work unless you purged both governments of “old timers”
sas
War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength
Thats like one time, I heard this lady say..
“I’m all for giving up some of my rights, if it will protect my freedom”.
and that the mind set of the avg american.
avg american still wets the bed, and thinks whatever they believe is reality.
Its like jumping off the GW. You can believe all you want if you jump you will live and walk away. But the reality, you will go splat!
SAS
I was in Mt. Kisco NY gasing up while coming down from the Hartford area….cheapest gas was $2.29??!!….I was on 22 driving through Hillside on my way to drop off my uncle and passed a Raceway selling at $1.49. My mainstays here are at $1.53.
SAS,
Most people cant handle the idea that they are not a unique, perfect snowflake. And that a life defined by ones possessions is meaningless.
Until critical constructive thought is the norm and not the exception we are doomed to repeat history
Kettle: The IMF lent the present Gov the money, extremist take over say screw you, nationalise everything & if you don’t like it we have nukes. They would be screwed but these guys are crazy.
SAS: Saw this coming along time ago for the reasons you stated & resources like food,fuel etc. By the way aren’t we the biggest arms dealer, MONEY we sure as hell need it.
ChiFi,
rejoice, gas prices shall go lower yet…
Bets on Below-$20 January Oil Become Nymex Most Active Options
Bets that oil for January delivery will fall below $20 a barrel were the most active options contract in electronic trading today, a day after Merrill Lynch & Co. said oil may drop to less than $25. Oil may dip to a six-year low if the worldwide recession spreads and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fails to stem declines, Francisco Blanch, Merrill commodity strategist, said in a report yesterday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aGVEWl4Nnlio&refer=energy
Mike,
If pakistan tried that, the IMF could collapse the nation overnight by withdrawing financial support.
No outside creditor would deal with Pakistan if the IMF withdraws support.
Google around, the US has been training for neutralizing pakistan nukes by sending special ops to destroy or capture them.
I would imagine that the IMF would also buy out any extremeist that they couldnt handle politicially.
yes,
we are the largest arms dealer
Sounds like quite a fresh hell we’re brewing up for this week.
Wonder if O wishes by now he’d just stayed in the Senate and laid low.
Mike,
the US is responsable for about 40% of arms sales. The next largest is 20% by russia.
source:http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/asmp/factsandfigures/government_data/2008/RL34723.pdf
Kettle: Hope your right, sounds plausible. I am aware that we have a plan to take out or gain control of their nukes.The best plans of mice & men…..
Clot: If he doesn’t now he will soon. O is going to want to run for the hills when this sh*t storm cuts loose.
way ot…… but funny!
Girl accidentally txts dad after “becoming a woman”
http://thechive.com/2008/12/one-great-reason-not-to-have-a-best-friend-named-darcy/
“Most people cant handle the idea that they are not a unique, perfect snowflake. And that a life defined by ones possessions is meaningless”
I think I disagree bloke.
I would say many equate productivity & possesions with self worth.
i.e the more they have the more self worth they have or the more productive they are or try to do many things in a day equals self worth.
SAS
In any case…
sure is going to be in interesting few months. Cause the next few months will set the tone for the next several years.
SAS
kettle1 Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
ChiFi, rejoice, gas prices shall go lower yet…
The is no need for a tax cut…..we are having a pocket lined with cut cost gasoline, gas and oil…
a pocket = our pockets
SAS 44
that is what i was trying to say
grim unmod
OK ket that lightened the mood!
“that is what i was trying to say”
ok, sorry bloke. I must not have read the post too well.
I’m a little tired right now, just canned some more applesauce with Juanita today.
Bought honeycrisp apples from farmers upstate, makes a great sauce.
SAS
chifi didn’t you say you felt something bad was on the horizon this coming week?
Well there is a lot out there to hit the fan.
OT:
What would be the effects and problems of retasking the automakers to build mass transit vehicles, the construction companies to build high speed rail links, and the power industry to place the needed new national power transmission infrastructure under the new HS rail right of way?
This would intend to be the equivalent of the late 30s conversion to a war economy, but with a positive goal.
calvin and hobbes do the financial crisis
http://www.marcellosendos.ch/comics/ch/1992/02/19920216.gif
I have mixed feelings about the auto bailout debate.
At least the auto industry is the real economey.. and if you are going to bail out the finance sector and not the real industry…could make things alot worse.
SAS
53 boken,
a great idea propose by mnay but wont happen :(
—
srry grim
Everything’s Hobroken makes to much sense never happen.Anyway how many rail cars you going to need, no where near the # of cars. That is why it works better, mass transit.
SAS
Archway cookies went under OH the horror I love the little cashew ones. Lets bail them out too. Just kidding I have mixed feeling on the auto bailout also. Quite the mess we have gotten are selves into this time Ollie
Mike,
so far the govt hasn’t helped the real economey.
the only thing they have done is escalate the consolidation of money.
SAS
MIKEINWAITING Says:
December 7th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
chifi didn’t you say you felt something bad was on the horizon this coming week?
Well there is a lot out there to hit the fan.
What did Ed Kowalczyk say?
“I can feel it….”
ha ha
http://www.stayfreemagazine.org/images/23/23backcover.jpg
Does this have some Wall Street parallel?
http://www.flixxy.com/black-hole-short-film.htm
SAS,
We are going to give money to the auto industry. The question is are we giving it to F, GM, and Chrysler. We probably will to appease the people. This industry needs massive change to survive.
damn, that chicago factory situation is getting huge play ont he front of the NY Times.
wonder if it will give any other manufacturing employees bright ideas?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/08/us/08chicago.html?_r=1&hp
SAS 58: Agreed.
Thomas Jefferson in some cases could be called a prophet.
When we get piled upon one another in large cities, as in Europe, we shall become as corrupt as Europe .
Thomas Jefferson
The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not.
Thomas Jefferson
It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes. A principle which if acted on would save one-half the wars of the world.
Thomas Jefferson
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.
Thomas Jefferson
My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government.
Thomas Jefferson
No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms.
Thomas Jefferson
The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government.
Thomas Jefferson
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Thomas Jefferson
To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.
Thomas Jefferson
Very Interesting Quote
In light of the present financial crisis, it’s interesting to read what Thomas Jefferson said in 1802:
‘I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.’
confused
HERE HERE!!!!!!
I SECOND THAT
Confused: Copy past send to everyone you know.All should.
Amazing he saw this coming then.
Chifi,
“Owners here, desperate to sell because of job changes, can’t sell, and can’t even rent. There are many apts. for rent in the tea buildings, by owner.”
Hmmm…..wonder what that’s going to do local rents……
But Frank says Hoboken is still rocking.
The Seattle City Council today tried to speed up the Mercer Street project by agreeing to release $30 million for design work and land purchases next year. In a budget meeting, the council loosened its financial oversight — by
Confused, what is really interesting is that the same issues that plague gov’t and finance today have done so since inception. The sad thing is that the people of the older generations cared to do something about it, where as people today are largely lazy, entitled and dumb.
Hobokenite, I don’t see rents going down too much, high demand coupled with constrained supply and the horrendous tax situation makes landlords unlike to reduce rents much, many will hand the keys to the bank if they have no equity or sell if they do.
jcer Says:
December 8th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Hobokenite, I don’t see rents going down too much, high demand coupled with constrained supply and the horrendous tax situation makes landlords unlike to reduce rents much, many will hand the keys to the bank if they have no equity or sell if they do.
jcer: Were you around Hudson county in 1992-93 or 2002?
Can anyone else atest to the fact that NJ home prices are still way over priced? Especially in the north east section. I wonder when the market finally rectify itself. Between taxes and property prices this state is still hopefully on its way down!
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