I came across “Housing Inventories on the Rise” this morning and thought it sounded a bit familiar. Sure enough, the same story was published in the New York Times nearly 18 years ago, when the last real estate bubble burst. The scenarios are a little different, but while history doesn’t always repeat, it sure does rhyme. Real estate bubbles aren’t fairy tales, and home prices can fall, even in Hoboken. There is a reason these things take 20 years to repeat, because that is about the time it takes for the collective wisdom to forget about the last bubble. You know, doomed to repeat it and all.
From the New York Times:
Jersey’s ‘Gold Coast’ Losing Its Glitter
By THOMAS J. LUECK
Published: March 24, 1991 <--- Look at the date
THE New Jersey shore of the Hudson River, which emerged in the mid-80’s as a powerful new magnet for high-rise office development, is struggling with high vacancy rates, canceled projects and nagging doubts about the capacity of its roads, parking and public transportation.No area better symbolized the 80’s real estate boom in the New York region. An 18-mile corridor of gritty piers, derelict warehouses and abandoned railroad yards, the New Jersey riverfront became a patchwork of huge development sites.
It also became the focus of a feisty battle for New York City tenants and the centerpiece of an urban renaissance so sweeping that some began calling the area the “Gold Coast” of New Jersey.
For now, the renaissance has slowed. With 15 million square feet of space — more than half of it built in the last five years — developers on the New Jersey shore are beset by the highest vacancy rates in the New York area.
“When the Manhattan market became soft, it really hurt the New Jersey waterfront,” said Peter Eppie, managing director of Edward S. Gordon Company of New Jersey, a commercial brokerage, based in Jersey City. In an analysis this month, it found office vacancies in New Jersey’s Hudson River cities running at more than 30 percent, nearly double those in Manhattan.
…
For home builders and office developers alike, the immediate problem is something far from unique to the Hudson riverfront — the economics of a deep real estate recession. Since most of the office developers in the area have designed their buildings to appeal to banks, securities firms and other financial-services companies in Manhattan, they are now trying to sell to companies that are eliminating workers and shedding office space.
…
Some proposed developments are being stalled by public opposition. In Hoboken, an on-again, off-again plan to develop idle riverfront land and piers that are owned by the city and leased to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey was sent back to the drawing boards in October. The plan, involving a huge development of 1.3 million square feet of offices, hundreds of condominiums, a hotel and a marina, was defeated by only four votes in a municipal referendum. Now, Hoboken and Port Authority officials say they are preparing a plan for a smaller development.
From the New York Times:
Housing Inventories on the Rise
By ANTOINETTE MARTIN
Published: December 26, 2008
ON the eve of a new year, it is becoming clear that the real estate market in Hudson County, the “Gold Coast” zone just across the river from Manhattan, will have to wait at least two years to celebrate a more prosperous era.
Once New Jersey’s hottest market for high-end condominiums — drawing streams of Manhattanites — Hudson now finds itself with 24.1 months’ worth of unsold inventory.
This is a much bigger backlog than exists in Brooklyn, which has a 13.8-month supply, and it exceeds unsold inventory levels in Queens; in Orange, Rockland and Westchester counties in New York; and in Fairfield County in Connecticut.
On Long Island, the unsold inventory is also swollen. It would take 20.9 months for all the houses and condos currently on the market there to find buyers, given the current pace of sales.
A new assessment of the region prepared by the Otteau Valuation Group presents a generally unlovely picture of residential sales markets:
Manhattan now has an 11.8-month supply of unsold inventory, said Jeffrey G. Otteau, whose Old Bridge, N.J., company analyzes contract sales figures and advises real estate brokers. “This is not terribly big,” he said, “but it is significantly bigger than a year ago — and much bigger than the days when multiple bidders were circling around every available unit on the market.”
…
In Hudson County, home to Hoboken and Jersey City — an area known as “Wall Street West” — sales were 26 percent fewer in November than the month before, and 47 percent fewer than in November 2007.Looking further ahead, Mr. Otteau has recently raised the issue of potential overbuilding in Hudson County — in addition to his contention that outer-ring suburbs already have a surfeit of single-family housing on large lots that will not appeal to buyers of the next decade.
One large developer in Hoboken, the Applied Development Company, stopped building anything other than rentals as of nearly two years ago, said its president, David Barry. “We saw the condo market getting ahead of itself, and becoming temporarily overbuilt, for sure,” he said.
First!
Suffering Ohio begs for federal lifeline
State cuts and cuts while waiting for a possible stimulus package
COLUMBUS, Ohio – As the economy sputters and tax revenue plummets, governors and mayors across the United States are lining up to ask President-elect Barack Obama and the new Congress for hundreds of billions of dollars to plug holes in their budgets, arguing that services will suffer and joblessness will rise if Washington does not come to the rescue.
In Ohio, which has shed 100,000 jobs in the past year, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and his budget team spend a lot of time delivering bad news to constituents and plotting ways to wring money from the federal government. He announced $640 million in cuts for the budget year ending June 30, for a total of $1.9 billion since the economic crisis began.
“We’re not crying wolf. This is real,” Strickland said in an interview in his statehouse office, pointing to charts that project the most serious erosion of state income in 40 years and a two-year budget deficit of $7.3 billion. Revenue shortfalls in the upcoming two-year budget could amount to about 25 percent of the state’s discretionary spending.
Strickland recently picked up the telephone and called Rahm Emanuel, the incoming White House chief of staff. When he heard the recorded voice of his former congressional colleague, he left a message: “Rahm, it’s Ted. You’ve never failed me and I need $5 billion.”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28395932/
Suffering Ohio begs for federal lifeline
State cuts and cuts while waiting for a possible stimulus package
COLUMBUS, Ohio – As the economy sputters and tax revenue plummets, governors and mayors across the United States are lining up to ask President-elect B O and the new Congress for hundreds of billions of dollars to plug holes in their budgets, arguing that services will suffer and joblessness will rise if Washington does not come to the rescue.
In Ohio, which has shed 100,000 jobs in the past year, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and his budget team spend a lot of time delivering bad news to constituents and plotting ways to wring money from the federal government. He announced $640 million in cuts for the budget year ending June 30, for a total of $1.9 billion since the economic crisis began.
“We’re not crying wolf. This is real,” Strickland said in an interview in his statehouse office, pointing to charts that project the most serious erosion of state income in 40 years and a two-year budget deficit of $7.3 billion. Revenue shortfalls in the upcoming two-year budget could amount to about 25 percent of the state’s discretionary spending.
Strickland recently picked up the telephone and called Rahm Emanuel, the incoming White House chief of staff. When he heard the recorded voice of his former congressional colleague, he left a message: “Rahm, it’s Ted. You’ve never failed me and I need $5 billion.”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28395932/
Guess we’ll have to extend that fence around Michigan to wrap around Ohio…
What would it cost to evacuate Cleveland and hit it with about 8 daisy-cutters?
Clot 4 – Stu would greatly appreciate it if you could save a Skyline Chili or 2.
“History Rhymes: Gold Coast Loses Its Glitter”
If you were to buy a place in Hoboken on the published date: March 24, 1991, you would have made 10x times your investment. If you invested in S&P 500 you would be flat. Find me another investment idea like this. Moral of the story, buy, buy, buy, buy real-estate now.
Mall report = packed, -4% my a&&. More like +4 since last time I went there.
10x Frank? Really? Post the data to back that up.
http://www.contractortalk.com/f11/prevailing-wage-davis-bacon-act-california-43576/
So I’m checking into the Davis-Bacon Act because of all of the discussion surrounding public works jobs…I hit on this contractor’s page…some admit the taxpayer is getting soaked with the prevailing wage laws because plenty of guys would be happy to sand wood for $20. an hour but the CA prevailing wage law says they must pay $50.
“California Law requires that not less than the general prevailing rate of per diem wages paid to all workers employed on a public works project.”
So if we are thinking about infrastructure spending – how will this all shake out? Can smaller companies compete with these standards..?
I’ll post the article that got me checking on this as well…
Their idea was to focus on permanent tax reductions.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/951hvyxc.asp?pg=1
Not all stimuli are equal
8 Cindy: Just wait for the big infrastructure Stimulus package. The level of corruption and excessive wages (compared to market rate) is going to be astronomical. It is basically Big Dig in a (much) larger scale.
Also, there are not enough actual workers for all that work. Unemployed i-bankers, web designers or gender study majors are not going to pour cement. These jobs would not be permanent anyway (though Big Dig jobs lasted 15 years, exceeded budgets by tens of billions and work quality was sub-standard and people got actually killed when it was opened, because of defective cement and work).
This is going to be ugly and dangerous stimulus.
Frank,
I’d like to see your 10x data as well. 4x is more likely.
Off to Arizona…Talk later
Like it says history repeats itself, its not the end of the world. We are in a down cycle, but it will bottom.
Jamil,
The Big Dig is a lesson to be learned, for sure.
However, don’t use it as “the” example of public works when the overwhelming number of projects were small, well executed works.
http://memory.loc.gov/ammem/fedtp/ftcole00.html
The WPA provided much needed work for my grandfather and his siblings; they built Roosevelt Park in Edison. Without that work, they would likely have died from opportunistic diseases related from poor health/malnutrition.
I know you are an immigrant, but the WPA is an important heritage of many of us here.
The original WPA projects included training in new job skills and HS education…
And the jobs weren’t just hammer and nails. (Actually, it began with art and music projects to get people back to work – When the Federal Music Project was created, there were fewer than a dozen recognized symphony orchestras in the United States. By the spring of 1938, thirty-four symphony orchestras under the Federal Music Project were employing over twenty-five hundred musicians.)
It expanded to include surveying, actuarial, notary work, etc….
They inventoried historic landmarks, public buildings, recorded and documented traditional folklore (myths, legends, stories, rhymes, and so on), life histories (first and third person narratives about daily living), and social-ethnic studies. They included ex-slave narratives.
And yes, they also built parks, bridges, roads and other infrastructure.
But most importantly, you and I enjoy the fruits of their labor still today…
20 months of inventory in Hudson County?
But it’s so close to Wall St!!
“Gold Coast Loses Its Glitter”
I’ve always liked that headline.
It for sure is a NJ classic.
SAS
“Jeffrey G. Otteau, whose Old Bridge, N.J., company analyzes contract sales figures and advises real estate brokers. “This is not terribly big,” he said, “but it is significantly bigger than a year ago — and much bigger than the days when multiple bidders were circling around every available unit on the market.”
this guy man…
talk about double speak.
Otteau reminds me when I go into Starbucks everynow and then and order a “tall” coffee, and they give me the smallest cup out of the stack.
SAS
hey, that reminds me.
those $300 jeans we use to talk about..
they are on sale now for $100.
SAS
but hey…
what do I know
I haven’t left Lodi since 77.
SAS
Grim & kettle,
I would like to recommed a book you blokes might find of interest.
“Golden Rule: The investment Theory of Party Competition and the Logic of Money-Driven Political Systems”
Its pretty dry & little dated, but the main themes are interesting, accurate, and hold true.
I met the author up in Boston sometime ago, asked him to look over something for me, nice fellow, very insightful & smart.
SAS
oh yeah,
authors name is Thomas Ferguson,
#14 Spam – Agreed. Many of the WPA projects are still in use today. Several of the large lecture halls where I went to college had huge murals painted by Thomas Hart Benton. And wasn’t Dorothea Lange’s photographic work supported by the WPA? The CCC planted tree belts in the great plains. All worthwhile. I just wish I had some faint hope that this newest endeavor will be as successful.
Frank says:
December 27, 2008 at 9:16 am
Mall report = packed
People returning stuff…hoping to get cash back to pay for food, medicine, energy.
Dolt.
sl
wish i could remember the guy on here who said he had an EMF detector … but he actually said i could borrow it.
if you’re out there … please respond and we can swap info through Grim so i can come and borrow it for a day. that would really be great.
Happy post xmas, ongoing hanukah, pre New Year, everyone!
I’m off to scrape my way through another tour of duty in da pit!
sl
“Frank says:
Mall report = packed”
volume and % sales are 2 different things. like having 25 zit face teens hanging out, but only 1 buys a $1.50 Dr. Pepper soda.
SAS
but I have to give Frank a little bit of credit.
when he says “what recession?”
i believe there is some truth to that, although he may not know it, and could be posting just to get people’s goats.
so far, the recession that we have has been due to the bubble economy. The recession/slowdown from the real economy has yet to bite.
I believe that is what 09 will be about, along with the continuation of the bursting of the bubble economy.
The bubble economy isn’t just RE and knuckeleads with loser loans, its everything in the bubble, piled together.
Then we have the black economy, which untraveled somewhat. i.e Madoff. Madoff wasn’t a person, rather a instutionalized system. Madoff was just a face. Like a president Bush or Omama.
Fraud is apart of what is called the “black economy”, but i think either “free markets” or economic warfare stepped up to the plate. but I lean more towards free markets cause many are not blindly trusting or going along with the fraud. which isn’t a bad thing from an ethical point of view, but if I were fat cat that just lost millions, I might have a sour taste in my mouth and want the return to the fraud.
hence, that is why you will never bring down the black economy. Nomatter what the law enforcement or FBI says (whom engage in it and protect people whom are in it too)
you just have to make the decision to be apart of it or not.
SAS
“I believe that is what 09 will be about, along with the continuation of the bursting of the bubble economy”
Tax time will set the tone, i am afraid to hear pension fund stories come March & April. Lets hope for the best.
but, like I’ve saying like a broken record as of late:
come tax time, many will come to Jesus.
lets hope I’m wrong.
SAS
Madoff did it all by himself just like Oswald did it all by himself. These are loners who planned and schemed all by themselves. That’s why loners have to be watched. You never know what they’re up too.
commecial RE would be apart of bubble economy too.
SAS
“These are loners who planned and schemed all by themselves”
yes, I agree with you reinvestor101.
there are the loners out there, whom can pull off some damn good magic tricks.
but let me explain something to you to help you see a different angle.
When I ran gigs with those on Wall St & Wall St bankers, people wanted to know how you made a profit, even if it was as small as a dollar..you would have somebody (not talking SEC) with a white glove wanting to know how & where you did it. So, a bloke whom rolled billions of dollars can’t go far, unless he had help, in this case (and its alot more than 50 billion) the help was instutionalized, otherwise he can’t pull it off.
As an individual, Madoff could maybe roll a few million, but he can’t roll that much for that long. Unless, there was help (and intelligence).
SAS
“there was help (and intelligence)”
remember my post many moons ago about my experience when I was hired for the telecommunications sector?
My jaw dropped when I learned i couldn’t tell the differnce btw ______.
well, I’m off to do some calisthenics.
SAS
one last thing too while its on my mind.
alot of people made money on the pump, now ask yourself who is going to make money on the dump?
man, I am giving you blokes TMI.
SAS
No No No…I’m not going to believe it. Madoff worked alone. If this weren’t the case, there’s no reason to trust the financial system at all. Everyone would simply withdraw from the financial systems around the world and put their money in a damn mattress.
Madoff worked alone. He just lost the money. It’s that simple. He had losing trades and had to make up for it with this damn ponzi scheme. Look, stop trying to make things too complicated. You’re scaring the hell out of everybody. Stop it!
KareninCA says:
December 27, 2008 at 3:10 am
if you plan to live in a rural area you’d better get to know your neighbors ahead of time, and be agreeable and generous. they will be (they already are) watching your every step, and what you bring in and out of your “compound”. and they’ll be exploring it while you’re away at your city job. your ability to defend it will depend on their allowing you to; they outnumber you and can wait you out. yes, I’m from a small town.
glad i work at home!
Re :#35 REinvestor 101
Your sentence “Everyone would simply withdraw from the financial systems around the world and put their money in a damn mattress.” is what is actually going on.
The shenanigans have been so bad, the mistrust so deep. That essentially we have started the slide from a high trust to a low trust country. The fact is most middle & lower income class people feel that the system (from Bank fees -Student Loan -Insurance -etc) is rigged against them and there is a bulleyes target on their back. People are and will behaving more like a third world countries.
This economic downturn will be a gigantic generational L , because on top of all the financial structural problems that have been discuss here for years.
It’s mixing up with two sociological waves. One is the mistrust and second is is the end of the baby-boomers time in the spotlight & as they aged they will be taking out more resources.
To overcome the severe mistrust setting in. Obama is going to have massive perp walk of Mozillo like thieves. Nationalize the banks, and large part of the military industrial complex that stole a lot of money with its Iraq contracts. Even charge some people with Treason & bring integrity back.
I grew up in Union City, got my first job thru politics. Have dealt with many politicians, many crooked like Joseph Ferriero who was my attorney years ago.
My point is I know what political corruption smells like. And the problem is that it has spread from places like Union City to everywhere else. The average person is now picking up the smell and is starting to react to it by withdrawing from it. Essentially not playing the game, not participating and dropping out. Just like mist residents in political corrupt areas do (just like Union City) where the average person does not wants to get involve and will not lift a finger for the community’s benefit because they know is rigged.
But now is national. I think Obama’s first job is not the economic, but brinigng that lost trust back. A lot of people need to be tar and feathered.
Re :#35 REinvestor 101
Your sentence “Everyone would simply withdraw from the financial systems around the world and put their money in a damn mattress.” is what is actually going on.
The shenanigans have been so bad, the mistrust so deep. That essentially we have started the slide from a high trust to a low trust country. The fact is most middle & lower income class people feel that the system (from Bank fees -Student Loan -Insurance -etc) is rigged against them and there is a bulleyes target on their back. People are and will behaving more like a third world countries.
This economic downturn will be a gigantic generational L , because on top of all the financial structural problems that have been discuss here for years.
It’s mixing up with two sociological waves. One is the mistrust and second is is the end of the baby-boomers time in the spotlight & as they aged they will be taking out more resources.
To overcome the severe mistrust setting in. Obama is going to have massive perp walk of Mozillo like thieves. Nationalize the banks, and large part of the military industrial complex that stole a lot of money with its Iraq contracts. Even charge some people with Treason & bring integrity back.
I grew up in Union City, got my first job thru politics. Have dealt with many politicians, many crooked like Joseph Ferriero who was my attorney years ago.
My point is I know what political corruption smells like. And the problem is that it has spread from places like Union City to everywhere else. The average person is now picking up the smell and is starting to react to it by withdrawing from it. Essentially not playing the game, not participating and dropping out. Just like most residents in political corrupt areas do (just like Union City) where the average person does not wants to get involve and will not lift a finger for the community’s benefit because they know is rigged.
But now is national. I think Obama’s first job is not the economic, but bringing that lost trust back. A lot of people need to be tar and feathered.
ChiFi
If you want to troll, at least try to be entertaining like RE101.
You love to criticize my posts, yet i cannot remember the last time you actually tried to rebut one.
DO you still have your panties in a wad after i pointed out that your complete confidence in AIG was wrong after you chidely lectured clot and stu on how sound AIG’s finances really were when they bet AIG was going down?
your continues and vacuous insults are reminiscent of an outclassed know-it-all who is afraid of ending up with egg on their face if the debate the facts.
Chi, grow up. either be an entertaining troll and come up with some original material ( heck even copy re101 and go the terrorist route) or say something intelligent in response to my comments.
Yikes,
Got $30
http://www.smarthome.com/7021/CellSensor-EMF-Detection-Meter/p.aspx
KareninCA
I agree in part. You definitely want to know your neighbors and integrate yourself in some manner.
That is why those who plan to run to South/Central america if TSHTF are going to be in for an unpleasant surprise if they havent already worked to build connections of some sort with a local community.
However, a well thought out plan B is better then going the “Government will save me ” route. If there are any questions about how that will work out then take a look at katrina.
The potential for government aid is great, but if you cannot provide for your own basic needs you have very serious issues.
The main idea is not to go all “swiss family robinson” but to potentially have a fall back position which allows for the people involved to provide for their most basic needs.
That is much simpler then truely living “off the grid”
SAS,
since you’re the resident contract killer/ 007, what part did you play in the missing 8000 tons of opium and opium based drugs that are missing from the world market? what country(s) did you stockpile them in?
266 – Comrade Nom Deplume
“The outdoor range I went to in Lahaska, PA (near New Hope), will certify you by a range safety officer. Not a ton of training but it’s dirt cheap. $30 for your membership, certification and all-day shooting (you supply all the supplies though-guns, ammo, targets and safety gear).”
What is the name of this range?
“outer-ring suburbs already have a surfeit of single-family housing on large lots that will not appeal to buyers of the next decade.”
Interesting but i wish he would elaborate. Any ideas what will appeal to the buyers of the next decade?
KareninCA says:
December 27, 2008 at 3:10 am
if you plan to live in a rural area you’d better get to know your neighbors ahead of time, and be agreeable and generous. they will be (they already are) watching your every step, and what you bring in and out of your “compound”. and they’ll be exploring it while you’re away at your city job.
SO TRUE!!!!!!!!!!! LOL!!!!!
I get emails, *freaking EMAILS* about things I do outside.
We loan farm equipment to one neighbor, rent a 1/4 acre to another neighbor for a $1.00/year and give free eggs to a third…
We have to kill them with kindness in order to stay under their radar. :)
“What is the name of this range?”
South Philly yo!
Anecdotal story: Commercial RE is overpriced, too.
Found a prop owner, owns .5 acre in town, property has flooded 2x since Floyd.
Is worth, IMO, about 500-600K, would probably sell for 900K (I’m a cheap bas*ard) but he sat with us to discuss price and popped out with $2.5 million. (!?!?)
We told him to have it appraised and he said he “doesn’t care what it appraises at, he would “loan us” the amount above the appraisal.” (nice guy! :)
The whole “appraisal” thing is foreign to these sellers.
Sadly, there are still buyers coming in to buy these properties, albeit, not fast and often, but making comps tilted towards higher pricing…
veto says:
December 27, 2008 at 3:31 pm
“outer-ring suburbs already have a surfeit of single-family housing on large lots that will not appeal to buyers of the next decade.”
Interesting but i wish he would elaborate. Any ideas what will appeal to the buyers of the next decade?
————————————-
I think he means more families without children and well meaning but harmless liberal types going ‘green’ will want smaller places. A few other things that people may want in the next decade- 1) a Spanish/English dictionary; 2) a couple of handguns; and, 3) a job.
jim
a slight edit:
1. job
2. handgun
3. spanish/english dictionary
#38 Well, Ket, you’ve got me trained, like Pavlov’s dogs. When I read the link, I saw EMF but my brain processed it as EMP. I was thinking, there’s an EMP detector? Wouldn’t it be, you know, a little obvious? Calming down…
Economy ‘on knife-edge’ as Japan faces deflation fear
Japan’s economy — the second-largest in the world and a barometer of global consumer demand — was described yesterday as being “on a knife-edge” amid fears that it might plum- met into deflation within months. The warnings, which come from senior private sector economists and from the Japanese Government, follow a Boxing Day release of dismal industrial, consumer and employment data. Within hours of passing a record 88 trillion yen (£660 billion) budget, senior government sources told The Times that Japan would “inevitably” be forced to adopt new measures to halt the meltdown.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5400759.ece
“No No No…I’m not going to believe it. Madoff worked alone. If this weren’t the case, there’s no reason to trust the financial system at all. Everyone would simply withdraw from the financial systems around the world and put their money in a damn mattress”
reinvestor101,
that is why billions from the black economy (as well as all of them) gets poured into propaganda, and if you are in on the fraud, and maken good jack, nobody says a word. (similar to a bubble).
You really can’t “trust” the financial system. hence the word :risk
The system is made up of all sorts of multiple personalities. some good, some bad.
SAS
“Ecuador’s president announces oil production cuts, suspension of Agip, to back OPEC decision”
http://tinyurl.com/83k75l
“missing 8000 tons of opium and opium based drugs that are missing from the world market?”
i’ve never been involved in the drug trade directly. but, I will give you a clue: has nothing to do with Taliban.
SAS
“The system is made up of all sorts of multiple personalities. some good, some bad”
but eventually, the system becomes parasitoid.
parasitoid= organism that spends a significant portion of its life history attached to or within a single host organism which it ultimately kills (and often consumes) in the process.
SAS
“parasitoid”
that is why I believe “green jobs” is hopefully, the way of the future, along with the elimiatiion of getting “intermediated”.
no, i ain’t a hippie liberal douche, and I don’t buy into global warming.
(don’t get me wrong, there are real env issues: toxic dumping of which the govt is the biggest offender).
SAS
“Students now average nearly $20,000 in debt by the time they graduate, twice as much as a decade ago”
http://tinyurl.com/7jjdw6
Natalie Hickey, who graduated from Brooks Institute in Santa Barbara, picked up $140,000 in student loans, some of it at rates as high as 18%. Monthly payments of $1,700 are more than her rent and car payment combined.
In 2009, the vacancy rate in market-rate rental apartments will rise to its highest level in at least 28 years, as mounting job losses drive renters from the city, a new report from commercial real estate services firm Marcus & Millichap predicts.
http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/record-apartment-vacancy-rate-predicted-for-next-year
kettle1 says:
December 27, 2008 at 2:34 pm
ChiFi
If you want to troll, at least try to be entertaining like RE101.
DO YOU UNDERSTAND THE DEFINITION OF TROLLING? BASED ON THIS COMMENT I GUESS NOT.
You love to criticize my posts, yet i cannot remember the last time you actually tried to rebut one.
I ORIGINALLY STARTED MONTHS (YEARS?) AGO BY REFUTING YOUR POSTS. YOU ADAMANTLY REFUSE TO ACKNOWLEDGE ANY OUTCOME OTHER THAN THE MOST DIRE. MOST OF YOUR POSTS ARE MERELY LINKS TO DOOMSAYERS. WHEN YOU ACTUALLY POST AN ORIGINAL THOUGHT, IT SOUNDS LIKE A PRELUDE TO A SUICIDE NOTE.
DO you still have your panties in a wad after i pointed out that your complete confidence in AIG was wrong after you chidely lectured clot and stu on how sound AIG’s finances really were when they bet AIG was going down?
I WAS WRONG ABOUT AIG. SO WHAT? I DIDN’T HAVE A SINGLE DIME OF MY OR MY CLIENTS MONEY IN IT. ALSO, I THINK MY DISCUSSION WAS WITH BOST. ANY OTHER QUESTIONS?
your continues and vacuous insults are reminiscent of an outclassed know-it-all who is afraid of ending up with egg on their face if the debate the facts.
OUTCLASSED? WHAT? BY YOU? HOW? I AM SUPPOSED TO BE IMPRESSED THAT EVERY DAY YOU GOOGLE “doom; bankruptcy; death; destruction; infanticide” AND THEN POST THE TOP TEN RESULTS?
Chi, grow up. either be an entertaining troll and come up with some original material ( heck even copy re101 and go the terrorist route) or say something intelligent in response to my comments.
I AM SAYING SOMETHING INTELLIGENT. YOU POST WAY TOO MUCH OF THE EXACT SAME THING OVER AND OVER. WE KNOW YOUR OPINION: WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE A HORRIBLE AND MISERABLE DEATH, AND WE WILL WRITHE IN SEARING PAIN CHRONICALLY FOR YEARS. LET ME KNOW WHEN YOU CHANGE YOUR MIND.
SAS (54)-
140k in debt for a photography degree? Took out loans she didn’t understand?
Maybe she shouldn’t have been in college. Where were her parents in all of this?
Well said:
“Then we have the black economy, which untraveled somewhat. i.e Madoff. Madoff wasn’t a person, rather a instutionalized system. Madoff was just a face. Like a president Bush or Omama.
Fraud is apart of what is called the “black economy”, but i think either “free markets” or economic warfare stepped up to the plate. but I lean more towards free markets cause many are not blindly trusting or going along with the fraud. which isn’t a bad thing from an ethical point of view, but if I were fat cat that just lost millions, I might have a sour taste in my mouth and want the return to the fraud.
hence, that is why you will never bring down the black economy. Nomatter what the law enforcement or FBI says (whom engage in it and protect people whom are in it too)
you just have to make the decision to be apart of it or not.
SAS”
Op-Ed in the WSJ by Schiff
Openly, I do not like this guy nor trust him. Something is amiss. However, I have absolutely NO factual basis for holding this opinion. Ultimately, his theoretical arguments are really plain logic. That said, the future does not necessarily follow the path he suggests, and I certainly wouldn’t want to be following down that road anyway.
OPINION DECEMBER 27, 2008
There’s No Pain-Free Cure for Recession
Belt-tightening is required by all, including government.
By PETER SCHIFF
As recession fears cause the nation to embrace greater state control of the economy and unimaginable federal deficits, one searches in vain for debate worthy of the moment. Where there should be an historic clash of ideas, there is only blind resignation and an amorphous queasiness that we are simply sweeping the slouching beast under the rug.
With faith in the free markets now taking a back seat to fear and expediency, nearly the entire political spectrum agrees that the federal government must spend whatever amount is necessary to stabilize the housing market, bail out financial firms, liquefy the credit markets, create jobs and make the recession as shallow and brief as possible. The few who maintain free-market views have been largely marginalized.
Taking the theories of economist John Maynard Keynes as gospel, our most highly respected contemporary economists imagine a complex world in which economics at the personal, corporate and municipal levels are governed by laws far different from those in effect at the national level.
Individuals, companies or cities with heavy debt and shrinking revenues instinctively know that they must reduce spending, tighten their belts, pay down debt and live within their means. But it is axiomatic in Keynesianism that national governments can create and sustain economic activity by injecting printed money into the financial system. In their view, absent the stimuli of the New Deal and World War II, the Depression would never have ended.
On a gut level, we have a hard time with this concept. There is a vague sense of smoke and mirrors, of something being magically created out of nothing. But economics, we are told, is complicated.
It would be irresponsible in the extreme for an individual to forestall a personal recession by taking out newer, bigger loans when the old loans can’t be repaid. However, this is precisely what we are planning on a national level.
I believe these ideas hold sway largely because they promise happy, pain-free solutions. They are the economic equivalent of miracle weight-loss programs that require no dieting or exercise. The theories permit economists to claim mystic wisdom, governments to pretend that they have the power to dispel hardship with the whir of a printing press, and voters to believe that they can have recovery without sacrifice.
As a follower of the Austrian School of economics I believe that market forces apply equally to people and nations. The problems we face collectively are no different from those we face individually. Belt tightening is required by all, including government.
Governments cannot create but merely redirect. When the government spends, the money has to come from somewhere. If the government doesn’t have a surplus, then it must come from taxes. If taxes don’t go up, then it must come from increased borrowing. If lenders won’t lend, then it must come from the printing press, which is where all these bailouts are headed. But each additional dollar printed diminishes the value those already in circulation. Something cannot be effortlessly created from nothing.
Similarly, any jobs or other economic activity created by public-sector expansion merely comes at the expense of jobs lost in the private sector. And if the government chooses to save inefficient jobs in select private industries, more efficient jobs will be lost in others. As more factors of production come under government control, the more inefficient our entire economy becomes. Inefficiency lowers productivity, stifles competitiveness and lowers living standards.
If we look at government market interventions through this pragmatic lens, what can we expect from the coming avalanche of federal activism?
By borrowing more than it can ever pay back, the government will guarantee higher inflation for years to come, thereby diminishing the value of all that Americans have saved and acquired. For now the inflationary tide is being held back by the countervailing pressures of bursting asset bubbles in real estate and stocks, forced liquidations in commodities, and troubled retailers slashing prices to unload excess inventory. But when the dust settles, trillions of new dollars will remain, chasing a diminished supply of goods. We will be left with 1970s-style stagflation, only with a much sharper contraction and significantly higher inflation.
The good news is that economics is not all that complicated. The bad news is that our economy is broken and there is nothing the government can do to fix it. However, the free market does have a cure: it’s called a recession, and it’s not fun, easy or quick. But if we put our faith in the power of government to make the pain go away, we will live with the consequences for generations.
Mr. Schiff is president of Euro Pacific Capital and author of “The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets” (Wiley, 2008).
#8,
2 bedroom apartments in Hoboken in 1991 were selling for 50K, now they sell for 500K+. In downtown Jersey City you could not give a place away for free, now 500K+.
so far, the recession that we have has been due to the bubble economy. The recession/slowdown from the real economy has yet to bite.
the real recession have being going on since mid-1990th… It was hidden by bubbles of epic proportions – tech and housing….
There is nothing else USA can offer the world right now – hence bubbles are popping.
Recessions was here all thous years – if you had a job in manufacturing in USA since 1990 you would have know it.
Something for Stu who will surely love it….
WSJ
TASTINGS DECEMBER 27, 2008
Easy on the Wallet, Lovely on the Palate
It’s a great time for bargain-priced wines, including these high-rated bottles for $10 or less
By DOROTHY J. GAITER AND JOHN BRECHER
How many times have you heard this, or maybe even said it?: “Anyone can get a good wine for $50, but the hard thing is finding something I like for $20 or even $10.” It’s one of the oldest clichés of the wine world. But in today’s world, it’s simply not true. We taste around 2,000 wines a year at all price ranges, and we can assure you that price is absolutely no guarantee of quality. If you were blindfolded and had to choose a wine among two racks, one of Australian Shiraz between $20 and $50 and another of Chilean wines under $20, your chances of getting a pleasant wine for dinner tonight would be far better, in this case, with the cheaper wine.
It’s all about trying new things.
That’s not to say that expensive wines aren’t sometimes worth every penny.
Good land and years of care cost money. We tasted some outstanding wines this year that cost plenty but were fine values in their own way (if you missed our column about the Delicious wines of the year, drop us a note at wine@wsj.com).
Anyone who truly enjoys wine should not set an arbitrary limit on price because wines that will knock your socks off — and pay for themselves many times over because you think about them long after they’re gone — might be pricey. It does remain true, we’ve discovered in our tastings and in our real life, that we are more likely to have a truly memorable wine if we open our wallets a bit wider than we might like. That said, it’s also true that this is a particularly great time for bargain-priced wines. All sorts of countries are trying very hard to establish an international presence for their wines, which means there are terrific values coming from all over the globe.
In the past year, 10 wines that we rated Very Good or better in our blind tastings cost $10 or less. We have listed them below. (As it happens, all rated Very Good on our scale, which ranges from Yech to Delicious!) The prices we list were representative at the time we wrote about them. We have reprinted our original tasting notes.
It would be a mistake to look for these specific wines today; they are likely no longer available, at least in these vintages. We present them as examples of some of the outstanding bargains on shelves of good wine stores these days.
Because these wines represent tastings we conducted this year, the list does not include all kinds of wines that were on the list last year (such as American Muscat Canelli and Spanish rosé) and could be on the list next year (we’ll see). What we’re trying to do here is give you some general guidance about where you might find great bargains today, but there are plenty more on shelves. These are listed from red to white.
Putting Tastes Into Words
Exclamations like “That’s good!” or “This is awful!” are the bottom line when it comes to wine descriptions.
But if you want to start breaking down tastes, think about what you’re sensing and write it down.
Terre del Nero d’Avola (Rossetti) 2005 ($9.95). Italy.
It’s hard to imagine any Italian wine being considered a new trend, but the wines of Sicily are just that because, while plentiful, they weren’t very good for a long time. That has changed. There are more tasty wines from Sicily on shelves than ever and they can be quite distinctive and very good deals. Nero d’Avola is Sicily’s signature red and, like so many Sicilian wines, it has real personality. Our notes on this one: “Soft and approachable, with blackberries, herbs and a notable scent of lilacs. Nicely crisp, somewhat peppery and very interesting, with real life.” Nero d’Avola is often a good bet on wine lists at Italian restaurants because it’s still not widely known and can therefore be bargain-priced compared to better-known names.
Château Au Grand Paris Bordeaux Supérieur 2005 ($10). France.
The 2005 vintage in Bordeaux was widely praised, which meant ridiculously high prices on the well-known stuff. But Bordeaux is a large region with thousands of small châteaux most of us have never heard of. In a tasting of 2005 Bordeaux reds that cost less than $20, we were impressed with their quality. It’s impossible to know which you might see, but take a chance and pick one up. This one was a repeat favorite. Our notes on the 2005: “Lovely, with restrained but abundant fruit, red-berry tastes and some complexity. Fine wine. Could age some.”
Valle Reale “Vigne Nuove” Montepulciano d’Abruzzo 2005 ($9.95) and Castellana (Cantina Miglianico) Montepulciano d’Abruzzo 2006 ($5.99). Italy.
Dollar for dollar, we had few wines in 2008 that were as consistently charming as Italy’s Montepulciano d’Abruzzo. Whenever you are looking for a pleasant red that will be easy to drink over food and conversation, keep this name in mind. Our notes on the Valle Reale: “Filled with fruit (it’s unoaked) and remarkable for its balanced minerality, especially on the finish, which makes this taste far classier than others.” And the Castellana: “Dark, earthy and herbal. It reminded us of a ripe tomato because of its fleshiness and acidity. Quite food-friendly and nicely dry. Very pleasant.”
JournalFairvalley (Coastal Region) Sauvignon Blanc 2007 ($8.99), Juno Wine Co. (Robertson) Sauvignon Blanc 2006 ($7.99) and Ken Forrester Vineyards “Petit Chenin” (Stellenbosch) 2007 ($9.95). South Africa.
The South African aisle of your wine store is a good source for well-made wines at bargain prices. In tastings of South African Sauvignon Blanc and Chenin Blanc, we found them consistently well-made and pleasing. The world is awash in excellent Sauvignon Blanc these days, made everywhere from Chile to New Zealand, and South Africa is a good addition to that party. We found that its Sauvignon Blancs were more complete than many, with flavors that were true from first sip through the finish. Chenin Blanc, sometimes called Steen, is South Africa’s most widely planted grape, but too many Americans are hesitant to try it because of their unfortunate experiences with jug wines called Chenin Blanc. That means these wines are often great deals, with more weight and broader tastes than Sauvignon Blanc and sometimes more ageability, too. Our notes on the Fairvalley Sauvignon Blanc: “Bursting with fresh green pepper and sunshine. So clean and fresh, it’s like breaking open a very crisp head of lettuce.” On the Juno Sauvignon Blanc: “Particularly mouth-popping, with layers of taste and a lime kick, with some mouthfeel and weight. Charming and sophisticated.” And on the Forrester Chenin Blanc: “Fine fruit, with broad, green-apple tastes and a splash of lime, with nice tartness at the finish.” The 2008 Petit Chenin has recently been released and it’s just as good.
The Hogue Cellars (Columbia Valley) Pinot Grigio 2007 ($6.99). U.S.
Pinot Gris and Pinot Grigio are different names for the same grape. In Oregon, it’s usually called Pinot Gris and can have some significant weight and stuffing. In Italy, Pinot Grigio is often light, lemony and gulpable. Now wineries all over the U.S., piggy-backing on the success of Italian Pinot Grigio, are making wine from the same grape and calling it Pinot Gris or Pinot Grigio. It’s all very confusing, but how are the wines? We conducted a broad tasting of the U.S. examples, named Gris or Grigio. Unfortunately, we found many unpleasant, but there were a few winners, especially from northwestern regions like Oregon. This one, from Washington, was a terrific buy for summertime entertaining. Our notes: “Clean, bright, fresh and utterly winning. Fun and alive, with all sorts of tastes of just-picked fruit.”
Alamos (Catena) Torrontés (Salta) 2007 ($10) and Pannotia Vineyards Torrontés (Salta) 2006 ($7.99). Argentina.
The wine world changes so much, so quickly. Just a decade ago, wines from Argentina were hard to find on store shelves. Then its signature red, Malbec, pretty much took the world by storm. Now we see it everywhere. This has opened the door for Argentina’s signature white, Torrontés. It has become so widely available that we conducted a broad blind tasting this year and found the wines to be reliably charming and well-priced. Our notes on the Alamos: “White peaches and minerals. Almost a Riesling-like purity; fruity without being sweet. Quite tangy. Lots of tropical fruit, especially Persian lime.” And on the Pannotia: “Nice intensity of fruit, with some roasted almonds and grapefruit and a drop of honey that gives it a hint of brown sugar. Multilayered taste and rich in its own way.”
Good wine stores these days are a virtual riot of value from all over the world. If you refuse to leave your comfort zone, stick with well-known names, only buy wines that have already been highly rated by critics or focus on the most popular varietals, you will be missing some of the best deals. In the coming year, make a resolution to take chances on wine, at all price levels. Memorable experiences are waiting for you inside many of those bottles.
chicagofinance says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
December 27, 2008 at 8:10 pm
Something for Stu who will surely love it….
WSJ
TASTINGS DECEMBER 27, 2008
Easy on the Wallet, Lovely on the Palate
It’s a great time for bargain-priced wines, including these high-rated bottles for $10 or less
By DOROTHY J. GAITER AND JOHN BRECHER
How many times have you heard this, or maybe even said it?: “Anyone can get a good wine for $50, but the hard thing is finding something I like for $20 or even $10.” It’s one of the oldest clichés of the wine world. But in today’s world, it’s simply not true. We taste around 2,000 wines a year at all price ranges, and we can assure you that price is absolutely no guarantee of quality. If you were blindfolded and had to choose a wine among two racks, one of Australian Shiraz between $20 and $50 and another of Chilean wines under $20, your chances of getting a pleasant wine for dinner tonight would be far better, in this case, with the cheaper wine.
It’s all about trying new things.
That’s not to say that expensive wines aren’t sometimes worth every penny.
Good land and years of care cost money. We tasted some outstanding wines this year that cost plenty but were fine values in their own way (if you missed our column about the Delicious wines of the year, drop us a note at wine@wsj.com).
Anyone who truly enjoys wine should not set an arbitrary limit on price because wines that will knock your socks off — and pay for themselves many times over because you think about them long after they’re gone — might be pricey. It does remain true, we’ve discovered in our tastings and in our real life, that we are more likely to have a truly memorable wine if we open our wallets a bit wider than we might like. That said, it’s also true that this is a particularly great time for bargain-priced wines. All sorts of countries are trying very hard to establish an international presence for their wines, which means there are terrific values coming from all over the globe.
In the past year, 10 wines that we rated Very Good or better in our blind tastings cost $10 or less. We have listed them below. (As it happens, all rated Very Good on our scale, which ranges from Yech to Delicious!) The prices we list were representative at the time we wrote about them. We have reprinted our original tasting notes.
It would be a mistake to look for these specific wines today; they are likely no longer available, at least in these vintages. We present them as examples of some of the outstanding bargains on shelves of good wine stores these days.
Because these wines represent tastings we conducted this year, the list does not include all kinds of wines that were on the list last year (such as American Muscat Canelli and Spanish rosé) and could be on the list next year (we’ll see). What we’re trying to do here is give you some general guidance about where you might find great bargains today, but there are plenty more on shelves. These are listed from red to white.
Putting Tastes Into Words
Exclamations like “That’s good!” or “This is awful!” are the bottom line when it comes to wine descriptions.
But if you want to start breaking down tastes, think about what you’re sensing and write it down.
Terre del Nero d’Avola (Rossetti) 2005 ($9.95). Italy.
It’s hard to imagine any Italian wine being considered a new trend, but the wines of Sicily are just that because, while plentiful, they weren’t very good for a long time. That has changed. There are more tasty wines from Sicily on shelves than ever and they can be quite distinctive and very good deals. Nero d’Avola is Sicily’s signature red and, like so many Sicilian wines, it has real personality. Our notes on this one: “Soft and approachable, with blackberries, herbs and a notable scent of lilacs. Nicely crisp, somewhat peppery and very interesting, with real life.” Nero d’Avola is often a good bet on wine lists at Italian restaurants because it’s still not widely known and can therefore be bargain-priced compared to better-known names.
Château Au Grand Paris Bordeaux Supérieur 2005 ($10). France.
The 2005 vintage in Bordeaux was widely praised, which meant ridiculously high prices on the well-known stuff. But Bordeaux is a large region with thousands of small châteaux most of us have never heard of. In a tasting of 2005 Bordeaux reds that cost less than $20, we were impressed with their quality. It’s impossible to know which you might see, but take a chance and pick one up. This one was a repeat favorite. Our notes on the 2005: “Lovely, with restrained but abundant fruit, red-berry tastes and some complexity. Fine wine. Could age some.”
Valle Reale “Vigne Nuove” Montepulciano d’Abruzzo 2005 ($9.95) and Castellana (Cantina Miglianico) Montepulciano d’Abruzzo 2006 ($5.99). Italy.
Dollar for dollar, we had few wines in 2008 that were as consistently charming as Italy’s Montepulciano d’Abruzzo. Whenever you are looking for a pleasant red that will be easy to drink over food and conversation, keep this name in mind. Our notes on the Valle Reale: “Filled with fruit (it’s unoaked) and remarkable for its balanced minerality, especially on the finish, which makes this taste far classier than others.” And the Castellana: “Dark, earthy and herbal. It reminded us of a ripe tomato because of its fleshiness and acidity. Quite food-friendly and nicely dry. Very pleasant.”
JournalFairvalley (Coastal Region) Sauvignon Blanc 2007 ($8.99), Juno Wine Co. (Robertson) Sauvignon Blanc 2006 ($7.99) and Ken Forrester Vineyards “Petit Chenin” (Stellenbosch) 2007 ($9.95). South Africa.
The South African aisle of your wine store is a good source for well-made wines at bargain prices. In tastings of South African Sauvignon Blanc and Chenin Blanc, we found them consistently well-made and pleasing. The world is awash in excellent Sauvignon Blanc these days, made everywhere from Chile to New Zealand, and South Africa is a good addition to that party. We found that its Sauvignon Blancs were more complete than many, with flavors that were true from first sip through the finish. Chenin Blanc, sometimes called Steen, is South Africa’s most widely planted grape, but too many Americans are hesitant to try it because of their unfortunate experiences with jug wines called Chenin Blanc. That means these wines are often great deals, with more weight and broader tastes than Sauvignon Blanc and sometimes more ageability, too. Our notes on the Fairvalley Sauvignon Blanc: “Bursting with fresh green pepper and sunshine. So clean and fresh, it’s like breaking open a very crisp head of lettuce.” On the Juno Sauvignon Blanc: “Particularly mouth-popping, with layers of taste and a lime kick, with some mouthfeel and weight. Charming and sophisticated.” And on the Forrester Chenin Blanc: “Fine fruit, with broad, green-apple tastes and a splash of lime, with nice tartness at the finish.” The 2008 Petit Chenin has recently been released and it’s just as good.
The Hogue Cellars (Columbia Valley) Pinot Grigio 2007 ($6.99). U.S.
Pinot Gris and Pinot Grigio are different names for the same grape. In Oregon, it’s usually called Pinot Gris and can have some significant weight and stuffing. In Italy, Pinot Grigio is often light, lemony and gulpable. Now wineries all over the U.S., piggy-backing on the success of Italian Pinot Grigio, are making wine from the same grape and calling it Pinot Gris or Pinot Grigio. It’s all very confusing, but how are the wines? We conducted a broad tasting of the U.S. examples, named Gris or Grigio. Unfortunately, we found many unpleasant, but there were a few winners, especially from northwestern regions like Oregon. This one, from Washington, was a terrific buy for summertime entertaining. Our notes: “Clean, bright, fresh and utterly winning. Fun and alive, with all sorts of tastes of just-picked fruit.”
Alamos (Catena) Torrontés (Salta) 2007 ($10) and Pannotia Vineyards Torrontés (Salta) 2006 ($7.99). Argentina.
The wine world changes so much, so quickly. Just a decade ago, wines from Argentina were hard to find on store shelves. Then its signature red, Malbec, pretty much took the world by storm. Now we see it everywhere. This has opened the door for Argentina’s signature white, Torrontés. It has become so widely available that we conducted a broad blind tasting this year and found the wines to be reliably charming and well-priced. Our notes on the Alamos: “White peaches and minerals. Almost a Riesling-like purity; fruity without being sweet. Quite tangy. Lots of tropical fruit, especially Persian lime.” And on the Pannotia: “Nice intensity of fruit, with some roasted almonds and grapefruit and a drop of honey that gives it a hint of brown sugar. Multilayered taste and rich in its own way.”
Good wine stores these days are a virtual riot of value from all over the world. If you refuse to leave your comfort zone, stick with well-known names, only buy wines that have already been highly rated by critics or focus on the most popular varietals, you will be missing some of the best deals. In the coming year, make a resolution to take chances on wine, at all price levels. Memorable experiences are waiting for you inside many of those bottles.
cont’d
Anyone who truly enjoys wine should not set an arbitrary limit on price because wines that will knock your socks off — and pay for themselves many times over because you think about them long after they’re gone — might be pricey. It does remain true, we’ve discovered in our tastings and in our real life, that we are more likely to have a truly memorable wine if we open our wallets a bit wider than we might like. That said, it’s also true that this is a particularly great time for bargain-priced wines. All sorts of countries are trying very hard to establish an international presence for their wines, which means there are terrific values coming from all over the globe.
In the past year, 10 wines that we rated Very Good or better in our blind tastings cost $10 or less. We have listed them below. (As it happens, all rated Very Good on our scale, which ranges from Yech to Delicious!) The prices we list were representative at the time we wrote about them. We have reprinted our original tasting notes.
It would be a mistake to look for these specific wines today; they are likely no longer available, at least in these vintages. We present them as examples of some of the outstanding bargains on shelves of good wine stores these days.
Because these wines represent tastings we conducted this year, the list does not include all kinds of wines that were on the list last year (such as American Muscat Canelli and Spanish rosé) and could be on the list next year (we’ll see). What we’re trying to do here is give you some general guidance about where you might find great bargains today, but there are plenty more on shelves. These are listed from red to white.
Putting Tastes Into Words
Exclamations like “That’s good!” or “This is awful!” are the bottom line when it comes to wine descriptions.
But if you want to start breaking down tastes, think about what you’re sensing and write it down.
grim unmod….
sorry…this article got all messed up
Frank,
please show me the 2br condo that sold for $50k in 1991 that has since sold for $500k.
“Governments cannot create but merely redirect.”
Chi,
I agree with approx 70% of what he, Schiff, says, on a grand scale.
I do agree 100% with this, govt can can not create, they simply move $ from one sector to another. The sad part, it’s captial that won’t be invested by those who actually produced and earned it, nor will it garner any significant returns. Are we more interested in earning returns on our capital or just building bridges to nowhere? Let’s concentrate on producing goods and services that the world wants to buy. Unfortunately, our govt can not accomplish this. They are simply focused on robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Bailout economies have only one destination; failure. In addition to this, every press release from DC can only guarantee one outcome, lower highs and lower lows. If they would just shut up and walk away there would be a chance.
Frank,
What’s your high water mark. Is there a chance, in 2009, this simple question will be answered?
#64,
Since I don’t have access to MLS, I can’t. But I know that west of Willow St in Hoboken in early 1990s, was a no go zone. The same for downtown JC in 1998. Paying $50K and not having a gun was a bad decision back then. Also I remember looking at a brownstone in 1996 for 100K in JC’s Paul’s Hook, thinking I am going to get killed, now the places are going for 1M.
#66,
What’s your question?
Clot, BC
lovely opinion being expressed in asian papers….
U.S. debt approaches insolvency; Chinese currency reserves at risk
In the United States, the danger of debt insolvency is growing, putting at risk the currency reserves of foreign countries, China chief among them. According to new figures published by Bloomberg in recent days, the American government has employed a total of 8.549 trillion dollars to stop the financial crisis. This means a total of about 24-25.4 trillion dollars of direct or indirect public debt weighing on American taxpayers. The complete tally must also include the debt – about 5-6 trillion dollars – of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are now quasi-public companies, because 79.9% of their capital is controlled by a public entity, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which manages them as a public conservatorship.
http://www.asianews.it/index.php?l=en&art=14054&size=A#
and
US, China and the coming monetary storm
Many countries, especially the United States, have printed more money in order to cope with the crisis. Solvency, not liquidity is at the root of the current economic turmoil. Flooding the system with debt liquidity will exacerbate the problem, not solve it. In a short period of time the US Federal Reserve and the US Treasury Department are raking up a mammoth level of debt for US taxpayers—US$ 7,740 billion according to Bloomberg , 11 times what was in Secretary Paulson’s original plan, or 56,19 per cent of the US GDP in 2007. It is not even clear whether this is legal, but one can wonder whether it is fair not only to the American people but also towards the rest of the World, especially to Asian countries which are among the major holders of wealth in US dollars.
http://www.asianews.it/index.php?l=en&art=13959
Russia braced for unrest
Russia is bracing for further unrest as the rouble on Friday slid to a new low against the euro after a succession of moves to devalue its currency. A cut on Friday extended six weeks of devaluations by Russia’s central bank designed to offset the impact of the global economic crisis and falling oil prices as the country’s main export commodity approached its lowest level since 2004. Mikhail Gorbachev, the former Soviet leader, warned Russia faced “unprecedentedly difficult and dangerous circumstances” and could be “heading into a black hole”. “It is not clear what the fate of our rouble will be or if society has sufficient financial and moral resources,” he said. After the depreciation, which was the eighth so far this month, the rouble declined as much as 1.2 per cent to Rbs29.06 versus the dollar on Friday, a four year low. The rouble has now lost nearly 20 per cent of its value against the US currency since August. Analysts at Barclays Capital said the best case scenario would see Russian policymakers, facing the mounting evidence of a recession, allowing a one-off depreciation of 10 per cent or more.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fb228bfa-d385-11dd-989e-000077b07658.html
“Many countries, especially the United States, have printed more money in order to cope with the crisis.”
Can’t we just print one trillion dollar bill and send it to China to settle our debt (and subsequently, refuse to handle trillion dollar bills).
We can even ask Montgomery Burns to deliver it personally.
Frank,
Go to city hall and lookup the information. Check some of the new construction from that time, like the Skyline building. I think you’ll find a 3-4 times multiple is more accurate, rather than pulling $ figures out of thin air.
#73,
Fine, find me another investment that paid 3-4 multiple over the last 20 years. Stocks? Bonds? Oil?
“Go to city hall and lookup the information”
1. City hall does not have this info.
2. I have gone to the Hudson County County registrar office, what a zoo, never again.
1 bedrooms on Willow Ave in Hoboken between 11th and 12th were selling for $140s in 1991. I lived there from 89-91 so I don’t see how 2 beds were going for 50k. and as was stated, Willow ave was the edge of civilization at the time. any farther west was definitely a no go zone. People used to be scared to walk to the skyline alone.
If cherry picking trough to peak prices, certainly.
Gold – Yes
Oil – Yes
And let’s not forget RE taxes, and maintenance into your calculations.
For those with little ones in or near Essex County, Stu and I recommend the Holiday Lights Spectacular at the Turtle Back Zoo in West Orange. It runs from 5-9PM each night through Jan 4.
Lil Gator really enjoyed it. He also enjoyed his first ice skating session immediately afterward at the South Mountain Arena.
Experience Turtle Back Zoo in the winter as 100,000 bulbs and 50 lit displays illuminate the zoo this holiday season! Live ice sculpting demonstrations tonight!
Come and make some delicious smores!
Admission: $6 Adults $3 Children
http://www.turtlebackzoo.org/tbzoo/npo.jsp?pg=event&eventid=604
S&P 500 – Yes. Plus you get dividends.
Who cares about the economy! 2008 was a great year!@
My second son was born today!
Patrick Richard Iglar
12/27/2008 – 10:53am – 7 pounds, 9 oz
Patrick
Look at this place for example, 78 Jackson St in Hoboken, right by the projects just sold for $952,500. In 1998 when I was there, cops did not want to be seen on Jackson St. The value of RE on that street was 0.0.
http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=8dba5894-db61-4298-a134-f6ab42e30218&Report=Yes
“the real recession have being going on since mid-1990th… It was hidden by bubbles of epic proportions – tech and housing”
you may be confusing real economy vs. money that has been sucked out & moved to asia? and in its replacement came debt and cc cards? either way, i differentiate the 2, sounds like you may not. but if we follow definitions than the mid 1990s can’t be 100% accurate. but, i do get your drift. and somewhat agree.
“There is nothing else USA can offer the world right now – hence bubbles are popping”
bubbles were created to make sure you & Joe 6 pack didn’t see the trillions of dollars being moved out of the country.
SAS
Kettle,
You, Cindy and SAS form the bogeyman contingent here. There’s nothing any of you post that’s not calculated to scare the shlt out of everyone. SAS promotes the idea that there are legions of Bernie Madoffs out there while you and Cindy look for the darkest scariest news to post. Let me tell you guys something, Halloween is long past and we got damn near a year before it comes around again. I remind you–this is the Christmas holiday season and it’s time for giving and not time for scaring the bejesus out of everyone by making them jump at some damn shadows. Now stop it!
“My second son was born today!
Patrick Richard Iglar
12/27/2008 – 10:53am – 7 pounds, 9 oz”
holy crow!
congrats! man, thats great.
wow.
best thing I heard all day too.
best of luck bloke.
SAS
“What’s your question?”
Frank,
You’re a damn hedge fund, no? What’s your high water mark? Please, anybody, help the idiot.
You call this a housing recession?
Hoboken Apt. Building Sells for $47M
Investment Group Pays $408,000 Per Unit for Observer Park
http://www.costar.com/News/Article.aspx?id=62CBF6C5201591FA2FEB16CFB30FD1C5
Richie [80],
Congrats. I hope he’s a southpaw.
#85,
Hey, as&hole, why are calling people names?
““There is nothing else USA can offer the world right now – hence bubbles are popping”
i think it depends on your angle.
-USA offers military hardware & service..best in the world..bar none.
-we offer wars (not really a good thing,but hey we are the best at it)
-good universities (why you think they come over here, but its too bad we import the smart people cause public schools kids are defects)
-we have the largest & best black economy
-high productivity (wages is a different story)
i liked to think the US still offers alot, but the future is bleak. Why?
we have an aging population, and a not so bright young population, which is small in numbers.
just my thoughts.
SAS
“bubbles were created to make sure you & Joe 6 pack didn’t see the trillions of dollars being moved out of the country.”
Bubbles, bust, govt interference, social unrest, uprisings. Just another day at the office.
reinvestor101,
bloke, I don’t think you read all my posts? I have given plenty of posts where I see some positives for all of us.
sorry, if I posts things that may shake you a little, but I tell what I know and the way i see it. somethings are just my opinions..yes i know. sometimes I’m wrong (like my oil going to $200 before $50 call).
SAS
“Hey, as&hole, why are calling people names?”
Frank,
I normally don’t call anybody names. Just you, a total buffoon/idiot. Then again, you have probably been called worse. What’s your damn high water mark? If you can’t answer, stop telling us that you work for a hedge fund. The janitor, working for a hedge fund, would be able to anwser this question.
“There is nothing else USA can offer the world right now”
we offer people all over the world the chance to live or die.
basically, we offer a world tax, you buy our treasuries, or we will bomb the sh*t out of you, or put in a dictator who will kill you.
:)
SAS
Bubbles are only created to make lap dogs, like Frank, bark. Anybody, with an ounce of sense, will realize that the govt can not control market forces, nor can it print its way to prosperity.
I have chosen to no longer debate with Frank, but his outright lies are getting really annoying. He is the posterboy for denial.
I lived in Downtown Jersey City from 1996 to 1999. My first place was a rowhouse across the street from the Dixon Mills on Christopher Columbus Avenue. It was a 3-bedroom with parking for three off street. We rented it for $1250 a month and it sold for $169,000 in 1998. I know, because I tried to buy it for $139,000. Asking was $125,000. I then moved to 6th Street and rented a 3 bedroom for $1300 off of Newark Ave. Neither area required a gun to safely navigate the neighborhood. Felt safe in both locations day or night. Frequently came home at 3 am in both locations via the PATH to Grove Street or Newport. Both places would not sell for more than $450,000 today or at best $500,000 at their peak. At best, each property would have represented a triple in investment, and this is before factoring carry costs. Of course, Frank chooses to measure the value of investing in RE by using the example of the most prosperous period that RE investing ever encountered. It would do everyone here the most good if they just chose not to respond to Frank anymore. Then the repugnant liar might actually just leave us.
ChiFi,
I agree with the wine article. Easy to find a good $50 bottle, but very hard to find a drinkable $10. This is what makes the Coastline so damn amazing. If I hear one more story about 2 buck chuck or jailhouse red, I will kill myself. Both are entirely undrinkable in my opinion. Love to know the name of the PR firms each vineyard selected to create the mystique around their crap wines.
Kettle1,
You are as gloomy as Chifi is blunt. Just let it go you two.
you blokes out there are too hard on people like Frank & reinvestor101.
you’re forgetting a side effects of economic bubbles is psychological bubbles, were people can & do get detached from reality.
i.e no recession, RE only goes up, not my home, won’t happen here, this place is different.
Frank & reinvestor101 I was just using you as a general example, nothing personal. chin up.
SAS
sas,
You’re scaring this board with all of this talk. You made everyone shlt his pants unncessarily with the call for
$200 oil. You’re attempting to create the same “mess” with all this talk about the “black economy” and Madoff. You refuse to condemn Kettle, who is scaring everyone with these articles around our great nation defaulting on it’s debt. This is negative talk that is creating anxiety, not to mention the waste of perfectly good underwear.
“govt can not control market forces”
not on the long end, but can in the short end :)
SAS
You’re attempting to create the same “mess” with all this talk about the “black economy” and Madoff.
my attempt is to hope one day that you pull up the rug and see what under it, because what is under the rug, controls what is above it.
“You refuse to condemn Kettle”
I don’t condmn people’s right to blog, wether I agree or not.
“This is negative talk that is creating anxiety”
ok.. fair enough, perhaps I have been too negative as of late.
SAS
Frank,
re:78 jackson,
That place is new construction. Hardly comparable to what was there 17 years ago.
is reinvestor101…Grim?
did he put a gremlin in the system?
SAS
“not on the long end, but can in the short end :)”
SAS,
Yes, the ability to transfer present problems into future problems plagued with inflation. We are masters of laying rubber and patching hemorrhages with band aids. Producing long term competitive, solutions? Only lap dogs need apply.
After the storm only the foundation stands. Unfortunately, this foundation is a house of cards.
“Unfortunately, this foundation is a house of cards”
revolution?
or am I having an LSD flashback from 66 during those few weeks I spent in San Fran before I got shipped off to southeast asia?
:)
SAS
No recession here.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/nyregion/28small.html
congrat to gold diggers
this may be the “test” bidin was talking about…
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/12/27/gaza.israel.strikes/index.html
from my observation at orlando theme parks this week, i don’t see much less crowd than last time i was here 2 years ago. only one gloom and doom face was in “laugh floor” show at magic kingdom.
i won’t be too surprised if that $4.5 dividend is the only meaningful return SRS “investors” can achieve in 2 years.
Notes from Arizona…Cold and clear. Our home (5,000 sq. ft.) backs up to the Superstition Mountains with a golf course in our backyard.
Much more luxury than I am accoustomed to – but I’ll take it. I’m on vacation after all.
Up before everyone else, as usual.
I so enjoy the in-depth conversations here and the access to breaking news. I have been posting some pretty dire stuff lately (watching China and all), but I am also constantly looking for viable solutions.
This crisis has served to reveal our current place in the world. We have been revealed to be consumers of ill-repute…unconscious of our ways and greedy beyond measure.
But we are at a crossroads. Consumers have stopped consuming. Borrowers are beginning to save and pay down debt. Our lack of productivity and reliance on others has come to the forefront. Everyone now knows we are messed up and it took us many years, many politicians and many bad policies to get here. We are all in it together so to speak.
My fears have always been centered around unemployment and how we handle that issue. Will we put everyone on the dole or will we create meaningful work.
I want to see us expand productivity and new ideas in the private sector – through tax incentives and new job/business creation. Long-term growth through increased productivity – How are we going to achieve that?
We have lost our way. That has become obvious to the entire world – heck, many here are just starting to admit it. So now the hard work begins.
I believe most would rather be self-sufficient. How can we enable them? We must now create a “culture” in America where it is okay to scrimp and think about long-term goals….where it is better to be hard working and not rely on the government. What a hard task we have before us….what a trend we must reverse.
Stimuli – What form will it take? We must think hard about fostering an atmosphere where real growth, job creation, and productivity can thrive. Somebody – please – think long-term. No more “fast buck” mentality from up on high. Can we save a penny during the good times to help us through the bad?
stu,
In the long run the financial crisis we are currently experiencing is a huge opportunity for us as a nation. Its an opportunity to get our house in order again. whether or not we take advantage of that opportunity is something only time will tell.
In the short term, the constant calling of bottoms and denial of the magnitude of the current situation is ridiculous. its people grasping for the status quo because they are comfortable in their current position and fear change. The dont want to pay the piper
stu,
In the long run the financial crisis we are currently experiencing is a huge opportunity for us as a nation. Its an opportunity to get our house in order again. whether or not we take advantage of that opportunity is something only time will tell.
In the short term, the constant calling of bottoms and denial of the magnitude of the current situation is ridiculous. its people grasping for the status quo because they are comfortable in their current position and fear change. The dont want to pay the piper
cindy,
relax and enjoy the vacation!
(117) Kettle
Oh – No worries. My friends here are making sure of that. I even tried a Danidoff cigar last night and 1999 Du mol pinot – 2000 Archery Summit as well…oh – we are doing some serious R&R. Some swimming today and long walks while the boys go to the Arizona/Seattle game.
These are some serious businessmen who just want to kick back for a week…okay by me. I have taken on breakfast for today….hum…mild Italian saqusage, my finest hash browns and cheesy eggs.
I think the key word in your post (and I hope in mine) is the word “opportunity.” Sure, there are plenty of jerks out there but my belief in people is absolutely boundless.
Funny, but the only time we talked “business” was when one gentleman friend said “I’m locked in for 18 months with my current work.” (engineering) And another said “I’m sitting on the sidelines for awhile.” All here are self-employed and debt free. Just enjoying life….because they can. Something to aspire to for me….
I’ve know these people since my days in Oregon so I watched them grow their businesses and set their priorities…They have taught me a lot. Chance takers all….to a man. All set out on their own after working in their fields. If only America could spawn a new crop of sensible businessmen like this we would be all the richer for it.
Greenspan Says Financial Markets May Rebound in 6 to 12 Months: “Financial markets, which have been depressed by “fear” not seen since at least the 1930s, are likely to rebound in the next six to 12 months, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a commentary published by The Economist online.
“Markets are being suppressed by a degree of fear not experienced since the early 20th century (1907 and 1932 come to mind),” Greenspan said in the commentary. “Human nature being what it is, we can count on a market reversal, hopefully, within six months to a year.”
A stabilization in home prices, which will allow financial institutions to judge the value of collateral underlying mortgages and mortgage-backed securities, is likely in 2009 and is another “critical piece” to ending the turmoil, the former Fed chairman said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a10QDnibK46s&refer=home
Finally, you post something positive from an admired American leader. Maybe there’s some redemptive qualities in you yet as you might be beginning to turn away from the scare tactics of the dark side. Let’s see if Cindy and sas follow your lead.
kettle1 says:
December 28, 2008 at 8:01 am
Greenspan Says Financial Markets May Rebound in 6 to 12 Months: “Financial markets, which have been depressed by “fear” not seen since at least the 1930s, are likely to rebound in the next six to 12 months, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a commentary published by The Economist online.
“Markets are being suppressed by a degree of fear not experienced since the early 20th century (1907 and 1932 come to mind),” Greenspan said in the commentary. “Human nature being what it is, we can count on a market reversal, hopefully, within six months to a year.”
A stabilization in home prices, which will allow financial institutions to judge the value of collateral underlying mortgages and mortgage-backed securities, is likely in 2009 and is another “critical piece” to ending the turmoil, the former Fed chairman said.
#86 Richie – CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Having a baby is the best thing in the world!!! Enjoy every minute with your new son!!!
anyone read Mish’s post today about municipal bankruptcy filings. I was suprised not to see nj mentioned. I can’t believe the Vallejo firemen get a base of 80k and can retire at 50 w/ %90.
Some dirtbag sent me this via e-mail. The disrespect for our president knows no bounds:
A Medical Miracle.
An Austrian doctor says ‘Medicine in my country is so advanced that we can take a kidney out of one man, put it in another, and have him looking for work in six weeks.’
A German doctor says ‘That is nothing, we can take a lung out of one person, put it in another, and have him looking for work in four weeks.
A Russian doctor says ‘In my country, medicine is so advanced that we can take half a heart out of one person, put it in another, and have them both looking for work in two weeks.’
The Texas doctor, not to be outdone, says ‘You guys are way behind, we recently took a man with no brains out of Texas, put him in the White House for eight years, and now half the country is looking for work.’
“Enjoy every minute with your new son!!!”
Especially the diaper changes ;)
#114 Cindy – Frugal, liquid and self-sufficient is the new “rich.”
Chi (62)-
Your biggest criticism of Schiff has been rooted in your belief that he’s talking his own book. I’d have to agree that many of his public statements contain pumps for gold, foreign currencies, etc. However, this piece contains none of that. What I do see is a simple message that actions have consequences, both logical and unintended.
As BC has said many times here, no gubmint in world history has ever printed its way out of economic problems or intervened to the extent that they could reverse an economic cycle.
The pain of the coming collapse will only be exacerbated to the extent that we engage in magical thinking and/or belief in the dreaded idea that somehow “it’s different this time”.
vodka (76)-
Really don’t want my kids paying off this insane level of debt…or living in this country as it collapses.
Am now leaning toward Brazil or Chile as a place to just live and chill while all this plays out. My thinking is now that the best places may be countries that have dealt with economic collapse/repudiation/insolvency before and just take a kind of “whatever” attitude toward it (this rules out Argentina). It’s going to be tough everywhere, so now I just want to be somewhere that isn’t ground zero for the reprecussions.
Cindy (118)-
A box of Davidoff Special T’s and some ’77 Fonseca is my idea of a good time.
Headed to the beach. 80 and cloudless today.
Tard, Frank and bi can suck it.
#125 re101
That’s so accurate. Shrub is awful. Actually makes me miss Wild Bill.
(131) – Gutless coward.
Clot,
You are writing off argentina but not brazil? Chile sounds interesting. not considering belieze?
——————-
Cindy 131
Grim, can you ban whoever is impersonating cindy?
Just got back from Detroit last night. Had to do last minute shopping with my brother on the 23d and 24th. Roads were packed. Had more to do with every frigging auto plant and parts plant being closed than anything else.
I like the Gold Coast article, but I think they are drastically understating the amount of inventory. 24 months might clear out the LISTED inventory and empty finished prohjects but what about the people that pulled stuff off the market because they realize there is no market at the inflated price or those who’ve watched their neighbors units just sit on the market and figure why bother? That has to be at least another 12 months worth of condos.
I’ve a friend who works at a major bank who’d love to dump his place and go back to renting given his job insecurity but knows he’d never get what he paid.
As the layoffs continue into the new year the inventory is just going to build and the inevitable price collapse will inevitably have to hit. Even the 4.5% mortgage miracle won’t save this inevitable sh*tstorm.
“I’ve a friend who works at a major bank who’d love to dump his place and go back to renting given his job insecurity but knows he’d never get what he paid.”
he,
Looking back, some of my best trades were losses.
BC,
I agree. Better to take the loss and get liquid than possible being unemployed for an extensive period and having that albatross around your neck.
#121 kettle: Too bad Mr. Grrensapn does not give one example or reason as to why things might turn around.
He says home prices will stabalise Why?
“Human nature being what it is, we can count on a market reversal, hopefully, within six months to a year.” Why?
Lets have feel good articles we will get through this, fine. But can we have some clear, concrete reasons as to why?
What is or may be on the horizon that would lead Mr. Greenspan to say what he said?
139
1 of 2 things will turn housing around. 1. prices drop back in line w/ income. 2. wage inflation brings income up to prices.
low interest rates will bring some of us back into the market but what about 1st time homebuyers? raising 70k or so isnt easy and then qualifying is another hurdle. and people must be asking themselves especially in nj where layoffs are just going to start to take there toll on house prices
is it time to buy
so which mr. greenspan thinks will happen i dont know. but he’s the smart one. I’m just an idiot renter
“I’m Penniless, but the Laugh’s on Them”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/fashion/28lolfed.html
In case you would rather laugh than cry about the insanity.
http://www.northjersey.com/realestate/movingup/36794774.html
not sure if anyone posted this yet, think they could get mortgage for this now. Says they moved in during the summer, I guess this guy never read millionaire next door!!
Wamu – “The bank set up what insiders described as a system of dubious legality that enabled real estate agents to collect fees of more than $10,000 for bringing in borrowers, sometimes making the agents more beholden to WaMu than they were to their clients.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/business/28wamu.html?ref=business
Clotpoll says:
December 28, 2008 at 9:44 am
vodka (76)-
Really don’t want my kids paying off this insane level of debt…or living in this country as it collapses.
Am now leaning toward Brazil or Chile as a place to just live and chill while all this plays out. My thinking is now that the best places may be countries that have dealt with economic collapse/repudiation/insolvency before and just take a kind of “whatever” attitude toward it (this rules out Argentina). It’s going to be tough everywhere, so now I just want to be somewhere that isn’t ground zero for the reprecussions.
————————————-
Clotpoll,
I would suggest someplace in Western Europe. You’ll want good healthcare no matter what and civilization. We have a house in Germany that we bought in 1987. For my job at the moment we have a rented house in Italy. The area has great food and lots to see so things could be worse. I wouldn’t want to be in the third world in the next year. No matter what the west is going through they will have it much worse off during the next couple of years.
3b,
AG calling a bottom? Why is it that those that never believed there was a bubble are continually calling a market bottom. One other thought, is Chuck still dancing?
“We all got up to dance,
Oh, but we never got the chance!
`cause the players tried to take the field;
The marching band refused to yield.
Do you recall what was revealed
The day the music died?”
#146 BC Bob: Agreed. Perhpas Mr. Greenspan would do well to read these lyrics, before foaming at the mouth.
You can hide `neath your covers
And study your pain
Make crosses from your lovers
Throw roses in the rain
Waste your summer praying in vain
For a savior to rise from these streets
Well now Im no hero
Thats understood
All the redemption I can offer, girl
Is beneath this dirty hood
With a chance to make it good somehow
Hey what else can we do now?
Except roll down the window
And let the wind blow
Back your hair
Well the nights busting open
These two lanes will take us anywhere
We got one last chance to make it real
To trade in these wings on some wheels
Climb in back
Heavens waiting on down the tracks
Oh-oh come take my hand
Riding out tonight to case the promised land
Oh-oh thunder road, oh thunder road oh thunder road
Lying out there like a killer in the sun
Hey I know its late we can make it if we run
Oh thunder road, sit tight take hold
Thunder road
3b [147],
One of my favs.
From Ritholtz;
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/we-refed.gif
The Refinancing Dilemma
MANY homeowners who have watched interest rates plunge over the last month or so have undoubtedly felt pangs of mortgage envy. It’s a perfectly natural emotion when lenders start to dangle 4.9 percent rates for 30-year, fixed-rate loans without extra fees for buying down that rate.
Skip to next paragraph
More Mortgage Columns
These offers, which were common in recent weeks, started the phones ringing at the offices of mortgage brokers. But for many homeowners, deciding whether to refinance their mortgages can be confusing, especially if they have had the loan long enough to start significantly diminishing their debt.
Because the typical mortgage only lasts for about five or six years before the homeowner sells the home or refinances the loan, lenders collect much of the mortgage interest during those years. Once a loan gets beyond five or six years old, homeowners can start seeing the overall debt drop at a faster pace.
So if a homeowner has reached that point, does it make sense to start a new 30-year loan, and face another five years where you’ll make heavier interest payments? The answer, as is so often the case with financial decisions, depends on individual circumstances. If retirement or tuition payment plans involve the liquidation of a home, it may make sense not to take out a new loan.
But in other cases, the monthly savings from a cheaper mortgage could be critical — “especially in this economy,” said Richard E. Austin, a financial adviser with Lincoln Financial Advisors.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/realestate/28mort.html?ref=realestate
A half-dozen trailers rolled up to Eckenhoff Cadillac Buick Pontiac GMC in Jenkintown bright and early and wiped the lot clean of $8.4 million in inventory – Hummers, Cadillacs and all.
“Load up, leave. Load up, leave. . . .” The funereal rhythm of repossession transfixed the sales guys next door at Hopkins Ford Lincoln Mercury, who watched through their showroom window as the devastating news descended on their neighbor.
GMAC, the beleaguered financing arm of General Motors Corp., had called the loan that had enabled Scott Eckenhoff to stock new and used vehicles. Big trailers carted away the collateral from a Big Three retailer that had been hanging on by a thread.
GMAC also cleared out Eckenhoff’s used-car lot in Maple Shade, which held another batch financed by a GMAC “floor-plan” credit line.
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain
#147 BC Bob: Mine too.
well, i just finished canning a bunch of turkey broth today. I made a nice broth with the left over carcas bones from xmas.
I have about 4 gallons worths.
and i think I finished the last of canning applesauce too. I have at least 20 gallons of applesauce.
i store it, but also i made small jars and I gave a bunch out for xmas gifts and also give to family members.
SAS
pressed some concord grapes for storage too.
SAS
me, i just think food is a better investment right now that the stock market.
actually, i wouldn’t call it a market…more like economical warfare.
in any case…
SAS
kettle,
another good book that you may find of interest:
“Unforgiven” by Charles Walters
http://tinyurl.com/9u79ub
SAS
“I think that the Ny region will see a bottom before 2017 but after 2012. My guess is the NY region will bottom sometime around 2014 and then stay stagnant for a long period”
if you think that is really your belief, how long before we see tent cities in Bergen?
alot of people are going to lose it all, even the frugal.
yikes!
SAS
nice graph by kettle:
http://tinyurl.com/7jqtzt
chifi, don’t listen to Kettle, he is all talk no action, he was hiding like a baby with his thumb in his mouth from Sept 18 through Dec 18th while real men were buying investment grade bonds at 14% and munis at 7%. I got my final Christmas wish in GMAC, can Genworth be far behind?
ChiFi answers difficult questions with depth and clarity, Kettle rants and raves about compounds, guns and expensive wine and is all doom and gloom.
re: foreclosure in Fla …
talking to a guy who just bought a foreclosed home. he got a GREAT deal on the place (corner lot, pool, 5000 sq feet). then he moved in … the place was GUTTED.
they took EVERY appliance (including the diswasher and the stove). they took the mirrors from every bathroom. they took the HANDLES OFF THE DRAWERS, everywhere. they took the garage door openers.
he left the expensive crown molding untouched, though. i’d love to know what he put down on the house. i think it was nothing. but would you really put zero down and then be that angry about the house?
just another one: They TOOK THE THERMOSTAT.
also, the ceiling fans from every room.
John,
curious, were you in the bond market in 98? i spent sometime in Russia in 98, we i suspect we could share some stories.
I don’t work in bonds, but always looking for someone whom is an expert in this area.
SAS
“waiting on the inspection”
crap, i’m in the wrong buisness.
i should be stripping foreclosed homes and having a tax free, half off sale.
SAS
Ritchie!
Congrats!
We got a new “baby”, too.
His name is Davy. He’s a 3 year old goat.
I went to the vet with one goat last Tuesday, I came home with two :) (long story!)
spam:
story! story! story!
spam:
story! story! story!
spam:
story! story! story!
Kettle rants and raves about compounds, guns and expensive wine and is all doom and gloom.
Yeah, that’s right and I’ll co-sign on this as well. Kettle is the meanest little cuss on this blog next to Clotpoll. He’s a big bogeyman and wants to scare the hell out of everyone.
“Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) — The dollar dropped against the euro and headed for a second annual decline against the yen before reports this week that may show the world’s largest economy is slipping further into recession.”
“People are worried over how bad the U.S. recession is getting and this week’s data may heighten those concerns,” said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajQeF8e26zS4&refer=home
I don’t believe this crap. You benefit from this country and the minute things get a little tough you want to jump ship.
Guess what?? You ain’t going nowhere. Let me tell you what you’re gonna do. You and your dog are going to keep both of your asses right here and suffer with the rest of us while paying your damn taxes. I’ll see to it that your visa is revoked. There’s no escaping.
Clotpoll says:
December 28, 2008 at 9:44 am
vodka (76)-
Really don’t want my kids paying off this insane level of debt…or living in this country as it collapses.
Am now leaning toward Brazil or Chile as a place to just live and chill while all this plays out. My thinking is now that the best places may be countries that have dealt with economic collapse/repudiation/insolvency before and just take a kind of “whatever” attitude toward it (this rules out Argentina). It’s going to be tough everywhere, so now I just want to be somewhere that isn’t ground zero for the reprecussions.
I don’t believe this crap. You benefit from this country and the minute things get a little tough you want to jump ship.
Guess what?? You ain’t going nowhere. Let me tell you what you’re gonna do. You and your dog are going to keep both of your asses right here and suffer with the rest of us while paying your damn taxes. I’ll see to it that your visa is revoked. There’s no escaping.
Clotpoll says:
December 28, 2008 at 9:44 am
vodka (76)-
Really don’t want my kids paying off this insane level of debt…or living in this country as it collapses.
Am now leaning toward Brazil or Chile as a place to just live and chill while all this plays out. My thinking is now that the best places may be countries that have dealt with economic collapse/repudiation/insolvency before and just take a kind of “whatever” attitude toward it (this rules out Argentina). It’s going to be tough everywhere, so now I just want to be somewhere that isn’t ground zero for the reprecussions.
50.5,
I need help. Stop looking in the rear view mirror and get to work.
SAS 156
yes i do believe that based on current data and historical trends. I do think that the NYC area will see tent cities but not before 2010.
people are mor elikely to leave the area then pitch tent. The northeast climate is pretty harsh in the fall and winter. Not the sort of place to build a tent city.
It also may not be as obvious because if you look back at the 70’s and 80’s a substantial homeless population lived in old subway tunnels and service areas that are not in use. This population was invisible to most people. (see the 1994 documentary by Steven Dupler, Outside Society)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXTxA2s-2jo
reinvestor101,
don’t worry bloke. i ain’t going anywhere either. I’m here to stay.
but, sooner or later I may move to CO.
(have some RE in northern CO).
SAS
“(have some RE in northern CO)”
along the front range.
SAS
I try to be forward looking, but Kettle, sas, cindy and clotpol keep trying to scare the hell out of everyone. I alone here am trying to stop this.
BC Bob says:
December 28, 2008 at 8:39 pm
50.5,
I need help. Stop looking in the rear view mirror and get to work.
Re101,
my point is to spark debate. i may have some things right and some wrong, but we all learn something from honest debate.
“if you look back at the 70’s and 80’s a substantial homeless population lived in old subway tunnels”
yup, i remember those days.
there whole towns under Penn Station, and the like.
and times square area was really fun in those days too. use to be a great place to get drunk & goto a nudie bar.
Now, its been sanatized with Disney & foot locker sneaker stores.
lame.
:)
SAS
Re101,
if you like my posts them check this guy out!
http://ashizashiz.blogspot.com/
Tard (167)-
The idea of you as a co-signor to anything is a hoot.
“Yeah, that’s right and I’ll co-sign on this as well.”
SAS 177
and times square area was really fun in those days too. use to be a great place to get drunk & goto a nudie bar.
Now, its been sanatized with Disney & foot locker sneaker stores.
how long do you think that will last with out the wallstreet money flowing?
BC (168)-
Hey, just some mild tax-loss selling this coming week…that’s all it is. Yeah. Right. Right?
Love AG and all the bubbleheads calling bottoms, too. Revisionism at its finest.
Spark debate my foot. I suppose that Casper the friendly ghost was just being friendly but he still scared the hell out of everyone he ran into. The only thing you’re sparking here is making people shlt their damn pants in fear. Stop it.
kettle1 says:
December 28, 2008 at 8:50 pm
Re101,
my point is to spark debate. i may have some things right and some wrong, but we all learn something from honest debate.
Tard (169)-
Funny. Frank wants me to leave; you want me to stay.
Can’t have it both ways. Talk to Assclown, get your stories straight, and get back to me.
Damn Geordies set me up for another beat-down today. They play their last 6 like world-beaters, then get blasted 5-1 by Liverpool (sans Torres). God-awful ugly football.
reinvestor101,
i’ve been nothing but kind to you & showed you respect in all my posts.
I ask for the same in return.
I may not agree w/ you & you may not agree w/ me, but please show me some respect in your posts.
Unless your a cute blonde with smooth skin…
I prefer not to have ask twice.
SAS
this needs no comment:
Fair Value Accounting Standards Wilt Under Pressure
World leaders have vowed to help prevent future financial meltdowns by creating international accounting standards so all companies would play by the same rules, but the effort has instead been mired in loopholes and political pressures. In October, largely hidden from public view, the International Accounting Standards Board changed the rules so European banks could make their balance sheets look better. The action let the banks rewrite history, picking and choosing among their problem investments to essentially claim that some had been on a different set of books before the financial crisis started.
The results were dramatic. Deutsche Bank shifted $32 billion of troubled assets, turning a $970 million quarterly pretax loss into $120 million profit. And the securities markets were fooled, bidding Deutsche Bank’s shares up nearly 19 percent on Oct. 30, the day it made the startling announcement that it had turned an unexpected profit. The change has had dramatic consequences within the cloistered world of accounting, shattering the credibility of the IASB — the very body whose rules have been adopted by 113 countries and is supposed to become the global standard-setter, including for the United States, within a few years.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/26/AR2008122601715.html?hpid=topnews
177/180 SASA/Kettle – I’ll gladly take the nudie bars and hookers back if it means the end of the tourists just standing still and staring on busy street corners blocking foot traffic when I just want to walk to Penn Station and catch my train.
Treasuries Post Weekly Loss as Auctions Highlight Supply Issue
Treasuries lost for the first week since October after U.S. sales of a record $66 billion of two- and five-year notes focused attention on the nation’s funding requirements amid a deepening recession. The new securities drew historic low yields as the Treasury faces selling what it has estimated will be up to $2 trillion in debt this fiscal year. The U.S., strapped with a swelling budget deficit, needs to finance a bailout of the banking system and an economic stimulus plan that members of President-elect 0bama’s transition team said could cost $850 billion. “It has to do with the amount of Treasuries that are coming out going forward,” said Andrew Brenner, co-head of structured products and emerging markets in New York at MF Global Inc. “The question is where the demand is going to come from with these kinds of low yield levels.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiw3cE2FfsLU&refer=home
“The only thing you’re sparking here is making people shlt their damn pants”
50.5,
I have to admit, a buyer, in 9/05, sparked me in the same manner.
comment from another blog, any input Clot or other RE guys?
Remember that most US first mortgages are non-recourse loans, but not the second ones or the refinanced ones. So refinancing most often takes away the option to walk away from the loan. A refi ususally means the lender can go after you for other assets as well. That may not seem a problem yet, for many, as they mean to stay in the home anyway. Do consider, though, what the situation will be like if for instance you lose your job, or if the home value goes down another 25% or more. Be careful out there! What you see may not be what you get.
“how long do you think that will last with out the wallstreet money flowing?”
well, Times Square area is already starting to turn back to the sex & grity scene. similar to Vegas.
sex sells over family themes anyday.
Vegas is going back, and so is Times Square..but w/out wall st. money… the good ol’ days will be back soon.
not that i mind
:)
SAS
ready for Alt-A and Prime loans to hit next? should be fun if WAMU is status quo
WaMu Built an Empire on Bad Loans
“We hope to do to this industry what Wal-Mart did to theirs, Starbucks did to theirs, Costco did to theirs and Lowe’s-Home Depot did to their industry. And I think if we’ve done our job, five years from now you’re not going to call us a bank.”
— Kerry K. Killinger, chief executive of Washington Mutual, 2003
As a supervisor at a Washington Mutual mortgage processing center, John D. Parsons was accustomed to seeing baby sitters claiming salaries worthy of college presidents, and schoolteachers with incomes rivaling stockbrokers’. He rarely questioned them. A real estate frenzy was under way and WaMu, as his bank was known, was all about saying yes. Yet even by WaMu’s relaxed standards, one mortgage four years ago raised eyebrows. The borrower was claiming a six-figure income and an unusual profession: mariachi singer. Mr. Parsons could not verify the singer’s income, so he had him photographed in front of his home dressed in his mariachi outfit. The photo went into a WaMu file. Approved.
“I’d lie if I said every piece of documentation was properly signed and dated,” said Mr. Parsons, speaking through wire-reinforced glass at a California prison near here, where he is serving 16 months for theft after his fourth arrest — all involving drugs. While Mr. Parsons, whose incarceration is not related to his work for WaMu, oversaw a team screening mortgage applications, he was snorting methamphetamine daily, he said. “In our world, it was tolerated,” said Sherri Zaback, who worked for Mr. Parsons and recalls seeing drug paraphernalia on his desk. “Everybody said, ‘He gets the job done.’ ” At WaMu, getting the job done meant lending money to nearly anyone who asked for it — the force behind the bank’s meteoric rise and its precipitous collapse this year in the biggest bank failure in American history.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/business/28wamu.html?hp=&pagewanted=all
A Mortgage Paper Trail Often Leads to Nowhere
With home prices in free fall and mortgage delinquencies mounting, pressure to modify troubled loans is ratcheting up. But lawyers who represent candidates for modifications say the programs are hobbled by the complexity of securitization pools that hold the loans, as well as uncertainty about who actually owns the notes underlying the mortgages. Problems often emerge because these notes — which are written promises to repay the full amount of a mortgage — weren’t recorded properly when they were bundled by Wall Street into pools or were subsequently transferred to other holders.
How can a loan be modified, these lawyers ask, if the lender cannot prove that it actually owns the note? More and more judges are asking the same thing about lenders trying to foreclose on borrowers. And here is another hurdle: Most loan servicers — the folks responsible for handling all the paperwork surrounding monthly mortgage payments — aren’t set up to handle all of the details involved in a modification. Loan servicing operations are intended to receive borrowers’ payments; producing loan histories and verifying that payments were received or junk fees were not applied is considerably more labor intensive. This cuts into profits.
“These servicers are not staffed up and they don’t have a chance in the world to do the stuff they are supposed to do,” said April Charney, a consumer lawyer at Jacksonville Legal Aid. Many servicers continue to stonewall troubled borrowers who ask for a history of their loan payments and fees, she said. “This is your biggest, hugest expense — your home — and when you ask for a life-of-loan history your servicer tells you to get lost,” she said. “And when you ask for a list of charges in the loan history that’s not going to happen.” So even if loan modifications were to rise rapidly, it is unclear that borrowers can trust what lenders tell them about what they owe.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/business/28gret.html?_r=1&emc=eta1&pagewanted=all
Hospitals ill from more bad debt, credit troubles
Gainesville’s first community hospital has been on life support since the Shands Healthcare system in northern Florida bought it a dozen years ago. Now, because of the recession, the plug is being pulled on 80-year-old, money-losing Shands AGH. Next fall, its eight-hospital not-for-profit parent company will shut the 220-bed hospital and shift staff and patients to a newer, bigger teaching hospital nearby as part of an effort to save $65 million over three years across the system.Like many U.S. hospitals, Shands is being squeezed by tight credit, higher borrowing costs, investment losses and a jump in patients — many recently unemployed or otherwise underinsured — not paying their bills. All that has begun to trigger more hospital closings — from impoverished Newark, N.J., to wealthy Beverly Hills, Calif. — as well as layoffs, other cost-cutting and scrapping or delaying building projects.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081227/meltdown_hospitals.html
1/3 of Banks Will Disappear Next Year
Many banks don’t have enough money to survive in 2009, but mergers will keep their brands alive, said Ralph Silva of TowerGroup. (video)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=975644719
I remember the days in manhattan that there would be strips of blocks, boarded up, graffeti, and for rent signs everywhere.
even places in swank upper west.
hard to imagine.
i remember a place, where people would come and take there cars and torch them for insurance money, and no fire debt would come… and a stolen vehicle chop shop.
crime was pretty high too.
SAS
Why dont we have this in NJ yet??? Someone call Corzine!!!
Double dipping rises despite outrage
This year some of Florida’s public officials are giving a whole new meaning to the phrase “home for the holidays.” It’s a new crop of double dippers, taking advantage of a loophole in state law that allows them to “retire” by taking 30 days off and return to work in their old jobs with a salary and a pension. Many also collect a lump-sum “retirement” payment that can reach hundreds of thousands of dollars. At least 25 of those spending December at home were re-elected in November — sheriffs, property appraisers, court clerks and tax collectors, six circuit judges and one state attorney. None announced their “retirement” plans before voters cast their ballots, and most have not made any public announcement of the resignation letters they have written to Gov. Charlie Crist. Earlier this year when the St. Petersburg Times began looking at double- and even triple-dippers, the state retirement system had about 8,000 members collecting paychecks and pensions at the same time. By June that number had risen to 9,397, and it’s still growing.
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/article950391.ece
some lite reading for you RE101. Enjoy!
Tomorrow’s buyers may be more conscious of the amount of income — and the work required to produce that income — associated with maintaining a large-house lifestyle.
“When you see people who have a whole room for a closet, or two-room closets, I mean, that reflects an incredible amount of discretionary income and wealth,” she said. “If you have half as much discretionary wealth, that would probably translate to half as many clothes and cars.”
If owners find them unsustainable, some large suburban houses might get turned into multi-family homes, just as many of the large homes of the late 1880s and early 1900s were converted into duplexes once lifestyles grew more spare.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/27/AR2008122700088_pf.html
FYI,
Not sure if this was posted but will be of interest to many of you who may be in the short etf’s and noticed the odd price action last week:
Several subscribers e-mailed us yesterday morning, inquiring about the dramatically lower opening prices in many of the ProShares Ultra and UltraShort ETFs. UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (NYSE:SDS – News), for example, opened 13.8% (12 points) below the previous day’s closing price, even though the S&P 500 Index started the day only 0.3% higher. For those who were not aware, and perhaps thought there was something wrong with their computer, this discrepancy was simply attributed to the quarterly distribution of substantial dividends, as well as short and long-term capital gains on the ProShares ETFs. Since SDS traded “ex-dividend” on December 23, its price was automatically adjusted to be 11.48 points lower. This means SDS technically only opened half a point below the previous day’s closing price. The remaining 11.48 points will be distributed to shareholder accounts on December 30. Whenever a dividend distribution occurs in an ETF position we’re holding, we simply lower our stop and target prices by the exact amount of the payout to compensate for the price adjustment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/081224/18619.html?.v=1
I can’t remember if this was a topic on these boards before?
“Collapse in dry bulk shipping rates unprecedented in its severity”
http://tinyurl.com/a5yzeg
SAS,
i have posted about that mnay times.
There was an atricle the other day about trucking companies now having problems…
one link at a time…. like dominos
YRC Points to Shipping Slump
Trucking company YRC Worldwide Inc. said volumes have slumped in the first two months of the fourth quarter, mirroring comments made by fellow shippers, as the company disclosed ongoing talks to ease terms on credit lines and the cancellation of a $150 million tender offer. Like firms in other industries that have been warning of substantial, and sudden drops, in demand in recent months, shippers have also been reporting woes in recent weeks. And because they are considered a barometer of economic health, it makes the current downturn particularly worrisome. The autumn months ordinarily bring a surge in preholiday shipping.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123013412648132957.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
BDI Charts for you SAS
http://tinyurl.com/3pnxg
kettle1,
thanks bloke.
remember our food conversation the other day? i hope some people on these boards take note.
between this, credit freezes, and the potential for a bank holiday.. yikes!
can get ugly.
people have forgotten have streamlined the food supply has come.
but hey, we don’t want to sound like a doom & gloom.
SAS
black economy?
remember, crime that pays, is crime that stays.
“Market’s ripe for flimflams, broker scams”
http://tinyurl.com/96xlcg
SAS
Interesting read:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1be84cc4-cc0d-11dd-9c43-000077b07658.html
Quote of the year (2008)
“Our government doesn’t have enough spare cash to bail out a lemonade stand,” -Peter schiff
There are a lot of misconceptions out there on the Baltic Dry Index so let me give you a quick rundown. There are basically 5 types of ships that move stuff around.
Container ships, you can figure that one out, finished products.
Bulkers, dry cargo such as Iron ore and grains, finished steel, coal etc
Tankers, liquid bulk, oil, chemicals molasses etc.
Ro Ro, that is roll on roll off for cars etc.
Reefers, bananas, oranges and such.
The BDI covers the second type; Bulkers, which are bulk commodity. In short, demand for raw goods is way down and this speaks loudly of future industrial activity. As you will note in housing starts, it was the a leading indicator of what was to come. The crash in the BDI does not speak well for our future economic prospects, like housing starts indicated a problem was upon us, so to does the drop in the freight rates. An additional fact that should not be overlooked is the price of fuel is way down so this would impact freight rates in addition to demand for vessels.
The Greeks have a long history in shipping and they are more predominant in the Bulker arena, and less active in container has been my experience. For now it just means that things are going to be slow from an economic standpoint. A number of the ships could find themselves with an early ending, low-balling a freight load and ending up close to the graving docks in India. Most of the inactive ships will likely remain at anchor with a skeleton crew, hoping this blows over soon.
While the BDI paints a bleak picture, the drop in bunker fuel has crashed too. Because of this, I would find steel output to be a better leading indicator, not impacted with the swing in energy prices. FYI, ship bookings for the Marine Exchange which covers our two busiest ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach are reporting a 30% fall in ship bookings for the first 6 months of 2009 compared to 2008.
If that holds, kiss your ass good bye. The port property is already full of cars. Toyota anyone?
SAS
kettle[207],
Tough comp, how about Fuld;
“the worst is behind us”
Unfortunately, he then proceeded to bend over.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a5JCJBH76_VU&refer=us
Lemon brothers Fuld:
“the worst is behind us”
that has to be my vote for quote of the year.
lol, Lemon brothers.. total losers.
good riddance.
SAS
BC
future comment of the year for 2009
“Financial markets, which have been depressed by “fear” not seen since at least the 1930s, are likely to rebound in the next six to 12 months”
-Alan greenspan Dec 08
I wouldn’t accuse Schiff of talking his own book. He’s has actively spoken out against inflationary policies, which is what his entire portfolio is poised to gain from. He even put forth a great deal of time to try to help get Ron Paul elected. Schiff invests to hedge against inflation. If he wanted to talk his own book, he would be better off cheering the fed as they destroy our currency rather than enlightening millions of Americans about the evils of irresponsible monetary policy.
kettle #190
If the refinanced mortgage is treated as the first mortgage in the documents, it will still be non-recourse. In many cases it is (was) refinanced as a home equity loan – less paperwork, lower fees, etc. – then it becomes a full recourse (though, from the POV of the county clerk it is a mortgage)