From the Daily Record:
Economic woes loom large as N.J. closes ’08
It’s a bad sign when mild-mannered nonpartisan legislative analysts start measuring the depth of the state’s budget problems by how many decades back you have to look to find similar distress.
The answer, by the way, is three or four.
Then again, Gov. Jon S. Corzine says the economy is in “without doubt, the most serious recession” since the 1930s. That has created a big deficit in the current state budget and a massive one in the plan that must be adopted by the end of June.
Not to mention a throbbing political headache for Corzine and his Democratic colleagues in the Assembly in an election year that could test whether the voters’ recent interest in change goes in both political directions or applies to cuts in popular programs such as rebates.
“We have an economic emergency. … There is a real problem out among the people of this state and across the country with regard to economic conditions. And they’re not getting better,” Corzine said.
“Everyone has to adjust their thinking to the circumstances of the moment,” he said.
…
The unemployment fund is nearly broke. The transportation fund lacks long-term funding, as does the open-space fund. New Jersey’s income tax relies heavily on the year-end bonuses Wall Street has slashed. Car sales are down more than 40 percent, a direct hit on a big sales-tax driver. Businesses are losing money. New Jersey is down 34,400 jobs in 2008.“It’s about as bad as we’ve seen in several decades,” said Sen. Barbara Buono, D-Middlesex, the budget committee chairwoman. “Unemployment, foreclosure, bankruptcy — government is not immune to the fallout. Tax revenues support our budget.”
…
Corzine might look to save money by freezing employee wages or forcing workers to take unpaid furloughs — if unions agree to such moves. Layoffs are also possible, although the governor said he wants to avoid that.“I’d prefer to save jobs, but that means I need cooperation, because under the contract the only one of those you can execute independently are layoffs,” Corzine said. “I’d rather see people on payrolls with health insurance rather than accentuating a problem, but that may not be possible.”
frist!
Worthless anecdote:
Best Buy packed yesterday, the line to return items was more than 100 people deep. Waited over an hour to get my $21 back. While the store was busy, there were no lines at the registers. Lots of chatter about prices being very high. Just from a quick walk through, appears that prices are indeed higher than pre-holiday, no deals at all.
From Bloomberg:
Holiday Sales Slump to Force U.S. Store Closings, Bankruptcies
U.S. retailers face a wave of store closings, bankruptcies and takeovers starting next month as holiday sales are shaping up to be the worst in 40 years.
Retailers will close 12,000 stores in 2009, according to Howard Davidowitz, chairman of retail consulting and investment- banking firm Davidowitz & Associates Inc. in New York. AnnTaylor Stores Corp., Talbots Inc. and Sears Holdings Corp. are among chains shuttering underperforming locations.
More than a dozen retailers, including Circuit City Stores Inc., Linens ‘n Things Inc., Sharper Image Corp. and Steve & Barry’s LLC, have sought bankruptcy protection this year as the credit squeeze and recession drained sales. The holiday results indicate possible consolidation and further bankruptcy filings, according to Gilbert Harrison, chief executive officer of retail advisory firm Financo Inc.
“You’re going to see deals that you never thought you were going to see before because of the necessity of both parties,” Harrison said in a Bloomberg Television interview Dec. 26.
Sales at stores open at least a year probably dropped as much as 2 percent in November and December, the International Council of Shopping Centers said last week, more than the previously projected 1 percent decline. That would be largest drop since at least 1969, when the New York-based trade group started tracking data. Many retailers will report December results on Jan. 8.
Consumers spent at least 20 percent less on women’s clothing, electronics and jewelry during November and December, according to data from SpendingPulse.
I am sure that before resorting to layoffs, Corzine will first offer an early retirement buyout with a pension sweetener that costs the state more money than it saves in payroll.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602007&sid=aFR4svM8OEVA&refer=govt_bonds
eliminate AMT tax on private activity muni bonds!!!!!!!
“Best Buy packed yesterday”
i think there are good sales out there, even in real estate.
just too bad many people are broke, swimming in debt, or staring down a barrel of a .45 (layoff).
SAS
Roubini has got competition.
From the WSJ:
As if Things Weren’t Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument — that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. — very seriously. Now he’s found an eager audience: Russian state media.
…
Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.
But it’s his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin’s views also fit neatly with the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.
A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.
SAS:
“i think there are good sales out there…”
Agreed. I just got an unbelievable deal on a misordered Dell Studio 15 laptop.
I’m a little upset today.
My cat, totes, is at the vetinarian this morning for an endoscope surgery.
Totes has a mass on the esophagus.
Either a tumor or sometype of weird constriction.
not good. lets hope for the best.
I’ve had totes for 16 years.
:(
SAS
sas,
which hospital?
Actually in 1998 I was the interim product controller of russian bonds for DB during their “merger” with bankers trust. Damm russian stuff was not automatically priced on the system. Used to have all the ones that actually had cusips, sedols, isins etc. in a excel spreadsheet on a disc and used to load it in bloomberg and run a price update and reload it back on my DB computer, then I would call the trading desks in Germany, England, midtown and downtown and attempt to price the hard to price ones and then send out the daily “firedrill” report by COB German time. That stuff was going down quicker than a moscow train station hooker. No I did not buy any one it. Back then I just reported on it! Funny part back in my MBA program RAROC, (I think) the Bankers Trust Risk management system was the almighty god of risk management yet a few years later in Sept 1998 BT was toast due to poor risk management and the russian bond crisis creamed them.
Funny part was one a week the head of bond trading in Germany would read my Firedrill report and call me up and was so mad he would start to yell at me in German. I don’t think they were words I could look up. Hey I was only reporting the stuff.
sas says:
December 28, 2008 at 5:17 pm
John,
curious, were you in the bond market in 98? i spent sometime in Russia in 98, we i suspect we could share some stories.
I don’t work in bonds, but always looking for someone whom is an expert in this area.
SAS
#7,
Is Clotpoll real name Igor Panarin??
I had totes too. But now I just skip wearing them over my dress shoes in the rain.
sas says:
December 29, 2008 at 8:27 am
I’m a little upset today.
My cat, totes, is at the vetinarian this morning for an endoscope surgery.
Totes has a mass on the esophagus.
Either a tumor or sometype of weird constriction.
not good. lets hope for the best.
I’ve had totes for 16 years.
:(
SAS
Paterson Takes on Debt
N.Y. Governor Embraces the Pay-Go Route
By Ted Phillips
| Dec 29
New York Gov. David Paterson wants to break the state’s debt addiction. If he has his way, pay-as-you-go financing will overtake debt as the primary vehicle for capital financing by fiscal 2014.
http://www.bondbuyer.com/article.html?id=20081223SXJMVYEK
9 sas
I hope Totes comes through ok.
DUNE CAPITAL IS POTENTIAL BUYER FOR INDYMAC
New York private-equity firm Dune Capital Management has emerged as a potential buyer of the failed IndyMac Bank, people familiar with the situation say.
My Vetinarian is at Oradell Animal Hospital in Paramus (formerly in Oradell).
That is a good place for quality, sometimes they are a little slow with appt times, but the quality is, in my opinion, the best in NJ, bar none.
My Vetinarian is the same one Al Pacchino. Al, he has 5 doberman pinchers that guard his joint out in Alpine. He has a nice spread.
His security detail (compliments of someone you know..hint..hint) consists of 5 bodyguards..all asian blokes that follow his everymove.
WHen he takes his dogs to Oradell, its after hours and they close down the joint to a skeleton crew.
just a little interesting tid bit thought I would share with you.
SAS
John quit talking your book. You sound like Schiff.
John,
and to anyone else that wants to tease me about my cat.
I’m a really nice guy, but trust me, i’m the last person you want upset.
that is all i will say about that.
now back to RE & economical topics.
SAS
More worthless anecdotes
After much cajoling from the kids,this old dog has finally embraced Mac. I was at the Apple store at the Freehold Mall yesterday to replace my crashed PC and it was packed. Literally could hardly move in the store. I didn’t see any returns. Many people redeeming gift cards. More people looking at laptops than desktops. Lots of iphones sold. (the AT&T store around the corner was also packed).
John (11)
interesting post.
SAS
oppss:
“My Vetinarian is the same one Al Pacchino”
I mean, I have the same vetinarian as the actor Al Pacchino.
my mistake, i can’t type these days.
SAS
Bloomberg:
Recession Opens U.S.-China Rift Paulson Talks Bridged
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aycqRH9ENL5Q&refer=china
“McGregor says Obama’s China policy will require a balancing act “fundamentally different” from what his predecessors faced: Obama’s Treasury will need to fund a budget deficit heading for $1 trillion this year and “you don’t scream at your banker.” China’s holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, at $653 billion, are the world’s largest.
That means an increase in trade tension “is very easy for China to handle,” says Guan Anping, a managing partner of Beijing-based law firm Anjin & Partners and a legal adviser to former Vice Premier Wu Yi until 1993. “China can react by reducing its purchases of U.S. government bonds.””
Bloomberg:
Recession Opens U.S.-China Rift Paulson Talks Bridged
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aycqRH9ENL5Q&refer=china
“McGregor says Omama’s China policy will require a balancing act “fundamentally different” from what his predecessors faced: Omama’s Treasury will need to fund a budget deficit heading for $1 trillion this year and “you don’t scream at your banker.” China’s holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, at $653 billion, are the world’s largest.
That means an increase in trade tension “is very easy for China to handle,” says Guan Anping, a managing partner of Beijing-based law firm Anjin & Partners and a legal adviser to former Vice Premier Wu Yi until 1993. “China can react by reducing its purchases of U.S. government bonds.””
just in case anyone wants this for a reference:
oradell animal hospital
580 Winters Ave
Paramus, NJ 07652
(201) 262-0010
SAS
Here are my anecdotes from Tampa:
The Hyde Park section of South Tampa (which is lovely) has many many properties for sale. There are lots of short sales and while walking and driving around, there were at least 2 homes or condos for sale on every block- usually more. The Target near Odessa was pretty empty yesterday so we got in and out quickly while getting a new lap top case.
Update on the house- Grandma had paperwork written up so DH could sign the house over to her. She forgot to bring it to him when we saw her Saturday and never mentioned it while we stayed with her for Christmas. DH’s brother is moving into the house. The faster DH gets the paperwork, the better. This just doesn’t look good.
Mangini in trouble?
In another bad sign for Eric Mangini, the JetsNew York Jets announced at 2:45 this morning that Woody Johnson and Mike Tannenbaum would hold a 10 a.m. press conference this morning.
No word when Mangini would be available to the media. This seems strange and could be a sign that Mangini is out. Why wouldn’t the head coach also appear at the season-ending press conference?
The Jets sent this e-mail out in the middle of the night, and Willie Randolph can tell you what those late-night announcements usually indicate.
Usually after games, the Jets public relations staff tells the media what time interviews and press conferences will be on Monday. Last night, the Jets did not announce it, indicating that things were going on behind the scenes. Perhaps Johnson and his inner circle decided Mangini’s fate late last night.
We’ll check in later when we know more.
#11 Strawman
I think that would have been 1999. I was in the back at DB, hammering that big square BT peg, into the round DB hole that was a very tight fit.
I spent some time in Germany with another of the German banks and had some very funny meetings. Frankfurt is one of the best cities I lived in and would love to go back some day.
Belated congrats to Richie.
SAS, best of luck with the kitten. 2006 was an expensive one for the Mrs. and me due to terminal renal failure of Cleo…been there…..
When the volume of my work slows down, I read the blog.
I read mostly for SAS entries, which I find interesting, although sometimes scary.
SAS–I hope your cat is better soon.
“SAS–I hope your cat is better soon”
thanks everyone.
SAS
Yes SAS,
Good luck Totes.
1st- a prayer for Totes…
2nd- today’s news reads sort of like this blog has for the last few years. it’s as if this blog consisted of a group of Nostradamuss’s. where are all the mouth pieces complaining that there’s too much doom and gloom now? forget the rose bowl, forget the cotton bowl, it’s all about the 09′ toilet bowl!
SaS – sorry to hear about you cat Totes, 16 years is a long life for a cat and hopefully you cat will pull through, Oradell is the best, they took care of two of my dogs and two of my cats back when they were still in Oradell and gave the best possible medical care.
Cat’s are considered to be senior citizens after about 8 years and geriatric at around 14 years, I have heard stories of cats living beyond 20 years, so you never really know.
anyone seeing anything in the bond market that could impact mortgage rates this week?
we missed the 4.5% boat last week (hadn’t made an offer, didn’t think our lowball would go through) and now the best we can get/have seen is 4.85, 5.0 or 5.12.
wondering if we should lock in at 5 now, or hope that in the next couple weeks, it lowers.
I wish Totes all the best.
On the subject of cats, though, I do some work with a rescue organization. We have many wonderful cats—all shapes, sizes, colors and ages—who desperately want homes. So if anyone here has been thinking of adopting, just leave a post.
sas – My best thoughts go out to you and your kitty.
i posted this last night, but on the tail end of thread, many may not have seen it, so thought would post again cause i believe its important:
“There are a lot of misconceptions out there on the Baltic Dry Index so let me give you a quick rundown. There are basically 5 types of ships that move stuff around.
Container ships, you can figure that one out, finished products.
Bulkers, dry cargo such as Iron ore and grains, finished steel, coal etc
Tankers, liquid bulk, oil, chemicals molasses etc.
Ro Ro, that is roll on roll off for cars etc.
Reefers, bananas, oranges and such.
The BDI covers the second type; Bulkers, which are bulk commodity. In short, demand for raw goods is way down and this speaks loudly of future industrial activity. As you will note in housing starts, it was the a leading indicator of what was to come. The crash in the BDI does not speak well for our future economic prospects, like housing starts indicated a problem was upon us, so to does the drop in the freight rates. An additional fact that should not be overlooked is the price of fuel is way down so this would impact freight rates in addition to demand for vessels.
The Greeks have a long history in shipping and they are more predominant in the Bulker arena, and less active in container has been my experience. For now it just means that things are going to be slow from an economic standpoint. A number of the ships could find themselves with an early ending, low-balling a freight load and ending up close to the graving docks in India. Most of the inactive ships will likely remain at anchor with a skeleton crew, hoping this blows over soon.
While the BDI paints a bleak picture, the drop in bunker fuel has crashed too. Because of this, I would find steel output to be a better leading indicator, not impacted with the swing in energy prices. FYI, ship bookings for the Marine Exchange which covers our two busiest ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach are reporting a 30% fall in ship bookings for the first 6 months of 2009 compared to 2008.
If that holds, kiss your ass good bye. The port property is already full of cars. Toyota anyone?”
SAS
Baltic Dry Index
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index
SAS
Some have called New Year’s Eve “amateur hour” on the roads. That couldn’t be more true for teen drivers, who, even if they haven’t been drinking, lack experience behind the wheel.
At the conclusion of its Home for the Holidays public awareness and policy campaign, Allstate Insurance Company today released study results identifying the deadliest hotspots for teen drivers on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.
The Allstate Holiday Teen Driving Hotspots study found that the 10 deadliest hotspots among the nation’s 50 largest metro areas from New Year’s Eve through New Year’s Day includes cities from coast to coast. What each area has in common is that over the past eight years they have among the highest fatal crash rates for teen drivers over the New Year’s holiday.
According to the study, among the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas (a central city and its surrounding counties), the deadliest hotspots for fatal teen crashes those two days are:
— Jacksonville, Fla. — Columbus, Ohio — Richmond, Va. — Birmingham, Ala. — Orlando — Phoenix — Las Vegas — Philadelphia — Sacramento, Calif. — St. Louis
Is this guy the David Lereah of the banking industry?
Analyst Bove: U.S. banking sector’s outlook better than believed
“… “To this point investors in bank stocks have paid little attention to the new programs believing them to be inadequate to reverse the economic decline underway. Therefore, bank stocks are falling to levels not experienced since the late 1980s and early 1990s,” Bove said.
“One sector that is already reacting to the government is the mortgage refinance industry that is now beginning a new boom,” the analyst said.”
http://tinyurl.com/9pxfhu
40- dude you obviously don’t have/love animals…
no one’s laughing
Re #7:
So where is the best place to be when civil war breaks out? Besides the moon.
re: #37
Someone posted on another blog about thousands of idle cargo ships off the coast of China that can be seen from the air as you are landing in Singapore.
Apparently almost all the berths are full and there are thousands of ships moored everywhere you look around the island.
Some analysts joke that even brand new $100m container ships may be worth more as scrap metal than ocean-going transports.
Here is an archived article from last week…
http://74.125.47.132/search?q=cache:rt_H8MCEKq8J:newpaper.asia1.com.sg/news/story/0,4136,187430,00.html+singapore+idle+cargo+ships&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us&client=firefox-a
John,
#11. Anyone with good knowledge of BT RM knows that is was a facade. Mexican debacle in ’94 almost took them down as well.
#40. You are heartless. But we should have expected that.
John [40],
If I took your advice, regarding gold at $750, I would be on the menu. Thanks for the contrarian play.
You can take solace that you are joined at the hip with Mitchell and Bi. Sorry, I have forgot many others.
By the way John, that was a d*ck of a post, #40.
S&P Case Shiller due out tomorrow.
Hang in there Totes!
PeaceNow are you with the organization that tries to place the Asbury Boardwalk cats? Those cats were all over Convention Hall for the last 10 years or so. I always used to feed them. They have seen and heard some great concerts and rehearsals. If you adopt those kitties you might want to play some Springsteen to make them feel at home!
SAS,
best wishes for your cat!
Regarding BDI: from what i know,BDI is often looked at as a prosy for shipping in general even if it is only an approximation.
The current drop in BDI is mirrored in that cargo rates for almost all cargoes have fallen through the floor.
Current rates for containers have dropped so low that a ship owner may actually lose money by accepting a fixture (shipping contract). hence all the ships lined up in port harbors sitting idle
The spot rate for moving a 40-foot container from Hong Kong to Rotterdam plummeted from about $2,700 (£1,750, €1,900) in autumn last year to as low as $200 now……
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/93c8a684-cc72-11dd-acbd-000077b07658.html
Sean,
see my FT link at #50 for a pic
——————————–
Ships laid up as cargo volumes dive
By CNA Staff
Maersk Line has mothballed eight ships and “K” Line and Cosco, both members of the CKYH alliance, have set up a schedule to lay up nine and six vessels respectively, due to a sharp drop in cargo volumes. More vessel owners are expected to follow suit.
In the past two months, there has been a flurry of activity on both mainline routes, Asia-US and Asia-Europe, with lines and alliances merging services, making slot bookings and abandoning unprofitable routes as the recession in the West begins to bite. Asian shippers are also starting to feel the ripple effect of recession in the West as buyers disappear due to the credit crunch and plunge in retail sales.
http://www.cargonewsasia.com/secured/article.aspx?id=3&article=17915
bi says:
December 28, 2008 at 2:11 am
“i won’t be too surprised if that $4.5 dividend is the only meaningful return SRS “investors” can achieve in 2 years.”
December 29, 2008 at 10:00 am (just a 1/2 hour of open market since bi’s black box has spoken)
SRS up 5.2%.
SAS,
Good luck to Totes, my cat is going on 15 years old and I can’t believe he’s still around.
Hubba says:
December 29, 2008 at 9:41 am
Re #7:
So where is the best place to be when civil war breaks out? Besides the moon.
Once again, this blog and civil war… I think some people are too anxious to try out their new guns :)
I am looking forward to end of consumption – even in our house we have so much knick-knacks I fight with my wife every day about it.
Every time we move we would throw away boxes of useless little thinks, and during settles in period her Family sends us even more… Literally it all sums up to thousands of dollar/year of COMPLETELY USELESS things. (They just there because they are cute??)
I said – EVERY TIME you want to send me a piece of crap – send me 5$ you spend on it instead….
But I am cold and heartless bastard, who does not understand that family love does not measure in money – apparently it measures in useless crap.
I just got another box of crap from my mother in-law for Christmas and anticipating fight with my wife about throwing away 90% of it…
My mother in-law’s family are retired and complain about their mutual finds being down, they have no money to come and visit their daughter, but they still have money to buy absolutely useless crap.
Rant off.
WE NEED FREAKING DEPRESSION…
And no, there will be no Civil War II.
SAS-
Best wishes for Totes.
Anyone who makes fun of your situation is a psychotic sociopath.
Al; Ref 55; if “cute” came in a can my spouse would buy it by the case.
anyone want a good deal on a slightly used cargo ship????
ADMIRALTY COURT SALES
1. MV ‘VOYAGER II’
Bulkcarrier
About 33763 dwt on 10.67m draft
Built 1986, Stocz. Szczecin, Poland
Flag Panama
BV Class (believe dd due 9/09 ss due 9/11)
LOA: 195.09m, Beam: 25.32m
5 ho ha Macgregors
Cranes 3/25 1/20
Sulzer 6RLB66 Main engine
Lightweight 8,888
2. MV ‘DEFIANT II’
Bulkcarrier – self discharger
About10800 dwt on 8.4m draft
Built1978 Kalmar Varvet, Sweden. Converted 1996
Lloyds Class – Ice Class 1A – (believe ss due 11/11 dd due 5/09)
2 ho ha 14,880 CBM
B&W 6K45GF
Crane 1/30 / self unloading system Bulklift type T-1500, 1,500 m3/h
Lightweight 4,177
From HousingWire:
HUD Kills FHASecure
Updating an earlier report on HousingWire, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development has issued a formal letter confirming its termination of the FHASecure troubled borrower refinancing program. The mortgagee letter, 2008-41, confirms that the program will be terminated on Dec. 31.
“Maintaining the program past the original termination date would have a negative financial impact on the MMI Fund that would have to be offset by either substantial across-the-board single family program premium increases or the suspension of FHA’s single family insurance programs altogether,” the letter reads in part.
Effective Dec. 31, FHA said it will not issue any new case numbers for lenders looking to refinance borrowers into FHASecure loans; HUD will honor any loans for which a lender has taken an application and requested a case number prior to Dec. 31, it said.
SAS; good luck with Totes. We lost one of our cats at 18. Had to put her down to stop the suffering. Hate to see the little guys suffer.
IN addition – I help my retired friends move few times… Amount of Staff people have is ASTONISHING. Most of it never being used or hardly used, and not used for tens of years.
We need to collect useless crap we all have and ship it back to China as part of national debt repayment… At least some use for those shipping containers at Newark, and all empty cargo ships.
But I am cold and heartless bastard, who does not understand that family love does not measure in money – apparently it measures in useless crap.
My new years wish is for Christmas Tree Shops to file for bankruptcy. A chain store that specializes in peddling foreign made crap (knick-knacks). I think every mother-in-law in America spends their weekends at this joint.
To Kettle #58
kettle1 says:
December 29, 2008 at 10:12 am
anyone want a good deal on a slightly used cargo ship????
How about a cargo ship as a Compound… It is big enough to have hydroponic system on it, and we can live off the seafood as well… In addition being mobile, not attached to any particular country, and can always double up as pirates – seems like we’ve got enough guns here??? (too much Pirates of Caribbean for me – kids during Christmas party watched all 3 parts at once… )
Plus, for some reason I really liked “Waterworld”.
Grim,
Christmas Tree Shops is the devil. My father in law buys so much crap from that place that I simply throw out. For Hanukah, the lil’ Gator got an airhockey game that was battery powered. Needless to say, after 15 minutes of assembly the fan, which was woefully underpowered, stopped spinning. We will return it to father-in-law so he can get his $3.00 back. We also received a remote control race car for $2.50 from him. You should see this slow piece of krap. The only thing that the Christmas Tree Shops are good for are those canvas storage bins. Of course, what you end up doing with them is saving the krap that you really should have thrown out!
Al 61,
The good side to that is if you show up to the port of Newark with cash, you can get a heck of a deal on an empty container. They make great storage sheds!
I paid 600 cash for a used 20Ft and paid a driver 100 cash to deliver it.
is it a recession yet????
Short on cash, some put a price on themselves
Seeking quick cash in a tanking financial market, would-be sellers of a variety of body products — sperm, eggs, blood plasma, even human hair — are filling waiting rooms and swamping agencies with inquiries.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28040824/
Would love to put together a contemporary home using containers as a structural element. Lay a footing, stack, weld, plasma cut, and clad it. At $600per the cost would be significantly less than poured concrete, block, or timber framing. Only rub here is how much steel can be removed from the side walls without impacting structural stability. Not familiar enough with standardized container construction to know whether or not the sidewalls play a significant role in the integrity of the unit.
[43] wallies (yesterday’s thread)
Wican’s Range
Furlong, PA.
forgot the address, will have to relocate it.
BTW, it is an outdoor range–I expect they are open but don’t know.
Merry Xmas Grim
http://www.fabprefab.com/fabfiles/containerbayhome.htm
67 in mod, help please
[62] Grim
I told my mom to stop buying us stuff from there, and that I would throw out anything else she bought.
She listened (for once).
UBS called gold today over $1k for 2009 says worldwide stimulus packages increase the price.
kettle1 says:
December 29, 2008 at 9:54 am
My last post relative to this topic for awhile. I apologize in advance to the Board for my incessant need to drag this out.
Ket: In the 36 hours since my tirade, you continue to post doom and gloom, and to further my irritation, you post information and links on various topics being discussed (e.g., this morning the BDI).
Since the Internet is a wonderful tool, you are able to offer something very detailed and ostensibly authoritarian. You also post unqualified opinions with alacrity. To the uninitiated, you may appear to be knowledgeable. In reality, you are one of the consistently most dangerous posters here. I am tired of trying to unclutter your broken pipe of sewage that you continuously dump on this board. At a minimum, qualify your opinions with “I know nothing about this topic, but I sent the last 15 minutes reading the Internet about it.” or at a minimum “I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night”……RANT OFF
grim says:
December 29, 2008 at 10:27 am
Would love to put together a contemporary home using containers as a structural element. Lay a footing, stack, weld, plasma cut, and clad it. At $600per the cost would be significantly less than poured concrete, block, or timber framing. Only rub here is how much steel can be removed from the side walls without impacting structural stability. Not familiar enough with standardized container construction to know whether or not the sidewalls play a significant role in the integrity of the unit.
grim: stick to tropical fish
NJCoast, #50
I know about the boardwalk cats, but don’t work with that group. The group I help out with is called SNAPS, which stands for Spay Neuter and Protect Strays. This group is part of the trap/neuter/release movement, which seeks to reduce the feral cat population without euthanasia. Mainly I try to socialize the cats; also make vet runs and provide toys. We currently have many lovely kittens looking for nice homes….
Grim, I swear that I’ve seen pictures of homes made out of shipping containers. Maybe on wired.com?
It’s worth a Google
26 Lost – That’s exactly what I saw on my last visit to Tampa. My friend bought in 2005 and was told last year that even at a 35% loss her house still wouldn’t sell because there was at least a year and a half’s worth of inventory on the market.
My friend is now renting out at a loss and living in a rented beachfront condo on Miami Beach – which the owner also cannot sell and is taking a loss. Gotta love Florida real estate. In any event, my friend is just relieved that she no longer has to live in Tampa. She will pay any amount out of pocket not to live there. She and her friend (work colleague) were so miserable there
they started Project GHETTO – Get the H*ll Outta Tampa. Her friend was so miserable there that even living in NC makes her happier.
Keeping my fingers crossed that you get to sign over that property.
Grim – it’s being done:
http://www.bobvila.com/BVTV/Bob_Vila/Episode-0201.html
Strong, Affordable Storm-Ready Housing Project
Building with Steel Shipping Containers (BV0201)
Re: Cargo Ship as Compound
As long as we make our base in the Caribbean…I’m in for a full share. No cold climates for me.
I also liked “Waterworld” Any movie that can make Kevin Costner’s hair look good while wet is OK with me.
CHiFi,
I have not claimed to be an authority on any of the material i post unless it has to do with pharma engineering which happens to be my field of expertise.
If you still havent figured out not to believe half of what you read on a blog or any other part of the web then i suggest you move along.
If my posts bother you so much then why read them? I generally ignore your posts as i have no desire to engage in an endless tit-for-tat argument. give it a try (ignoring my posts).
happy holidays!
correction:
I have claimed some small expertise in matters related to the M1A1, haven been in a Cav unit in a former life.
[7] Grim
Panarin is only partially right, and maybe 1/4 right at most. My own prognostications have a different post-division map, and no “influences” by other nations. I also don’t see Alaska going back to Russia. Not ever.
Grim there is a NJ based architect Adam Kalkin that makes container homes called a “Quik House” and his factory here in NJ. Perhaps he needs some part time help welding and cutting etc.
http://www.architectureandhygiene.com/main.html
Nom,
Even Assuming the US became completely dysfunctional, would Canada tolerate Russia making a grab for alaska? doubt it.
Sean,
Very cool, thanks for that link.
ChiFi:
Your issue with Kettle1 is a lot like what I go through at work everyday. I am located firmly in blue-collar territory. These guys get all of their talking points from FOX news and the New York Post. I used to try to contradict them, but it is fruitless as my opinion is meaningless vs. that of the major media outlets they choose to watch. During lunch last week, a story ran across Fox News (channel that is always on in the cafeteria) about a woman who was fired last week for refusing to remove a pin from her Home Depot uniform that read “Keep Christ in Christmas.” Fox of course took the controversial angle of supporting her as did my constituent of coworkers. Just last year, I terminated an employee for refusing to remove a pin that read, “asses of evil” and contained pictures of Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld. As much as I agreed with the sentiment of the pin, a client might not have shared the same view nor does it comply with company policy. At first I thought I would share the story with my coworkers. I decided it was best not too.
ChiFi, I think you worry too much about how everyone perceives Kettle’s posts. I think most of us here, minus Frank, can see them for what they are. As long as Kettle isn’t preaching hate, then I think we are all quite capable of making our own determination of what he knows and what he regurgitates. After all, I’m pretty certain that most of us found this place via a Google search. ;)
Grim check this container house out…. for sale in bernardsville nj. only 2.8 million
http://www.architectureandhygiene.com/bunnyLane/bunnyLane_main.html
That thing is hideous.
Bond of the day, if they make it to a bank this will pop!!!
GENWORTH FINANCIAL INC MTN 06.51500% 05/22/2018 MAKE WHOLE
Price (Ask) 35.000
Yield to Worst (Ask) 24.465%
BTW SAS Sorry about your cat, I am sure your cat would like the joke. It is always the people left behind who are so serious at the end.
Family in my town got evicted recently and they took everything from the house, including the driveway.
well, I just got some good news from the vetinarian.
she did the endoscope, its not a constriction & doesn’t appear to be a tumor, looks like a severe inflammation. but she did a biopsy to check for cancer. looks like totes may have more 9 lives afterall.
thanks again everyone,
SAS
I’d imagine it possible to steal a paver driveway if someone was determined to.
77 Gator
Your friend at least has a great sense of humor. Where can I find info on her project? DH’s grandmother is delusional. She talks about how this place is world famous and that place is world famous. The only place they are famous is in her own world. She lives in Redington Beach. You know, where all the rich and famous live. If I would have brought up the amount of inventory, I think that would have sent her over the edge. I did not bring up real estate at all, except to comment on some houses that I thought were very nice. There was one around the corner from her daughter’s condo that she’s interested in buying to rent out. I guess she’s the expert. After all, she’s been doing this for 30 years. :)
Our resident mall expert can’t even get it right.
“Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) — U.S. retailers face a wave of store closings, bankruptcies and takeovers starting next month as holiday sales are shaping up to be the worst in 40 years.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajAqMbszJmNY&refer=home
Hmm, didn’t realize that Christmas Tree Shops was a subsidiary of Bed Bath and Beyond.
Harmon is too (beauty supply discounter).
Stu [65]
Glad to hear someone else had to forbid the grandparents from bringing any more Tchotchke into the house. Somehow because something cost less than $5, its a worthwhile gift “even if she only uses it once” or “even if she only wears it once”. I had to feign a nervous breakdown to get it to stop and the moratorium only lasted a month but it was a good month.
Now the house is full of large colorful plastic crap thanks to “Made in China” season or what is commonly referred to here in the States as Hanukkah or Christmas. I like to take pictures of the grandchildren playing with the boxes these toys come in rather than the toy themselves and send those out to the grandparents.
NJ unemployed to get a raise on January 1st, unemployment benefit being raised to $584 a week from $560.
http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lwdhome/press/2008/122308_2009_benefit_rate.html
Wonder what kind of additional strain this will put on the already dwindling unemployment fund.
Grim,
can you please delete John’s asinine personal insult/comment direct towards a member of my family.
SAS
” I also dont see Alaska going back to Russia. Not ever”
Nom,
Not with Palin keeping an eye on them.
So, it looks like if the market drops another 4% or so by the end of trading for the year that 2008 will be worse than 1931. It would be a fitting send-off for George Herbert Hoover Bush.
kettle1 says:
December 29, 2008 at 10:40 am
CHiFi, If my posts bother you so much then why read them?
ket: Ignoring an information source because I disagree with it is confirmation bias.
Revising my math for #97
As of November, average payout was $40m per week, increases on the order of 4.1% will increase monthly payouts by $6.5 million.
Chi:
Unleaded for $1.33 this morning. $1.37 on credit card.
(FRE) 0.71 -0.03 : Co names Raymond Romano as the co’s chief credit officer, a position that is responsible for enterprise-wide credit risk mgmt activities.
I hope this is not the ‘What about Raymond’ Ray Romano.
CHifi,
So you have a problem with my posts that are news articles from verifiable sources? or just my personal opinion posts. if the later, then that is certainly your prerogative and perhaps we should agree to disagree. You seem to be assuming that any opinions posted are intended to be authoritative.
Why exactly is a posting with a positive view any more or less significant then one with a negative view.
I am honestly more then happy to debate an issue at hand. But simply berating me for some perceived mental bias is not constructive and is getting old.
yikes (35)-
I think the Fed is headed into a giant headwind in their attempt to pull the 30-fixed into the 4.5% range.
However, I also thouught oil would see $200 before $40.
Locking at 4.85-5% seems like a good deal to me.
Anyone catch this little 2009 policy preview from Larry Summers?
quote // “unemployment could reach 10 percent by the end of next year and our economy could fall $1 trillion short of its full capacity — which translates into more than $12,000 in lost income for a family of four.”
//unquote
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/26/AR2008122601299.html
If Larry is correct we are in for a doozie.
grim 107 in mod
Stu (52)-
The oracle has spoken. Whenever he does, I sleep well for at least a week.
John,
“BTW SAS Sorry about your cat”
i know i am getting soft in my old age.
I will accept your apology.
i would appreciate it if you think twice about some of your posts. nomatter what your intentions may be.
as a kind suggestion, you may want to familiarize yourself with and old mafia rule:
don’t make attacks/insults on people’s family members, otherwise it will come back to you 10x.
SAS
Al (54)-
There you have it: people are going to be too depressed to fight.
I just found out one of my agents hasn’t paid her rent in 3 months (and this is a good agent). She got hosed in a divorce, and pays alimony to her worthless ex.
I tried to call her this AM, and her cell is cut off. Guess her extension in my office is the last contact left.
My best agent just took a part-time job. Smart cookie. She is doing okay…just doesn’t want to touch her savings to tide her through the occasional lean month.
SAS – If I thought before I spoke I would be quite boring, actually I have no filter between my brain and my mouth, normally my ears and brain hear what is coming out of my mouth as it is said. That said, I am a guy and we are dog people, cats are not something we know about.
Al (63)-
You may be alone in that sentiment.
interesting RE story out of the Colorado wire:
“Loan modification firms causing more problems for homeowners”
http://tinyurl.com/7fw9hg
More on shipping:
11:32AM Weyerhaeuser announces it is discontinuing active marketing of its Westwood Shipping Line (WY) 30.02 -0.55 : Citing weaker shipping markets and tight financing conditions for potential buyers, co announces it is discontinuing active marketing of its Westwood Shipping Line. Weyerhaeuser had announced in May that it was exploring a strategic alternative for Westwood, a wholly-owned subsidiary that operates a fleet of seven ships used by customers to ship forest products, containerized and oversized cargo. “We did not feel that the current market conditions would allow us to recognize a reasonable value for our assets and operations.”
“My best agent just took a part-time job.”
Striping? or hooking?
10 WORST Predictions of 2008!!!!
1. “A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!” —Richard Band, editor, Profitable Investing Letter, Mar. 27, 2008
2. AIG (AIG) “could have huge gains in the second quarter.” —Bijan Moazami, analyst, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, May 9, 2008
3. “I think this is a case where Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) are fundamentally sound. They’re not in danger of going under…I think they are in good shape going forward.” —Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee chairman, July 14, 2008
4. “The market is in the process of correcting itself.” —President George W. Bush, in a Mar. 14, 2008 speech
5. “No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble.” —Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator, Mar. 11, 2008
6. “Existing-Home Sales to Trend Up in 2008” —Headline of a National Association of Realtors press release, Dec. 9, 2007
7. “I think you’ll see [oil prices at] $150 a barrel by the end of the year” —T. Boone Pickens, June 20, 2008
8. “I expect there will be some failures. … I don’t anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system.” —Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, Feb. 28, 2008
9. “In today’s regulatory environment, it’s virtually impossible to violate rules.” —Bernard Madoff, money manager, Oct. 20, 2007
10. A Bound Man: Why We Are Excited About Obama and Why He Can’t Win, the title of a book by conservative commentator Shelby Steele, published on Dec. 4, 2007.
Gator (77)-
Went into Palm Beach Co over the weekend. Whole blocks of beachfront mansions in place like Delray w/ “For Sale” signs out front. Gotta believe the vast majority are facing FK.
Wifey asked me how low is low enough when offering in such an environment.
I’m still trying to think of a good answer to that one.
Anyway, late-night TV here is a hoot. One foreclosure rescue scam after another.
SAS, If your cat has an 80% chance of survival – go for it. If not – let it go. 16 years was a good life. The money for the operation would be better spent on a human being that needs medical attention and has no insurance or a person facing death from genocide in Darfur. With the money you could maybe save a whole family from starvation in Darfur or anywhere else in the world.
RE: Stuff
Sometimes it helps if you talk about the toys and amount of stuff away from a holiday. I told my sister in laws that I felt physically sick every time I saw the kids open up another plastic toy. She asked why and I said that I don’t have the space for this stuff and it quickly overwhelms our home. The plastic stuff stopped coming from them.
My daughter received a plastic cupcake maker for her birthday. My daughter used it once, it fell apart and I threw it away. My daughter doesn’t even mention it. It is such a waste. A dollar in her bank account would have been better than that thing!
I’d be saying “good riddance” to 2008, but I think in about 3 months’ time, ’08 is gonna seem like the good old days.
By about June of ’08, I was longing for a return of ’07…
rent (120)-
A dollar in her bank account would have been better than that thing!
A dollar? That’s not even enough to wipe your ass with.
Several rolls of Marcal are more valuable…and more practical.
“UBS called gold today over $1k for 2009 says worldwide stimulus packages increase the price.”
Wonder how their call on oil prices is working out:
http://www.247wallst.com/2008/05/ubs-hikes-oil-c.html
An underwater client of mine works for UBS.
We both know what their call on his job will be.
Hobokenite:
I like their call on RIG…
Transocean (NYSE: RIG) started as Buy with a $200 target
And the result…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RIG&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Clotpol, you are overly negative. I went to my in-laws on christmas eve and my family on christmas. My in-laws were all sour pusses. One brother in law bought in 2006, one cousin bought in 2005 and the other cousin bought in 2004, on top of that they all worked in home related industries, chase, wamu, genworth or junky little companies. Their own stupid mistakes are the problem.
Meanwhile at my families house people are teachers in the union or in FS non residential related and still have their jobs, people who bought homes between 1996 and 2001 and most were upbeat, talk was of refinancing cheap, one bought a new american car almost high price last month and a few bought into the sell off in November and that helped salvage the year. Everyone was happy. Basically who cares if house I paid 400K in 1996 that used to be worth one million in 2006 is now worth 750K. Who cares if 401K is down 40% when you have over 20 years to retirement.
The perception of the economy is related to your family, job occupation and friends. You must have the trifecta of bad news. My sister the teacher with a defined pension, free medical for life and a six figure job with tenure views the recession as if she is watching starving kids in Africa. She really can’t relate to it.
Clotpoll says:
December 29, 2008 at 12:27 pm
I’d be saying “good riddance” to 2008, but I think in about 3 months’ time, ‘08 is gonna seem like the good old days.
By about June of ‘08, I was longing for a return of ‘07…
Renter:
We told the lil’ gator that we are giving his old toys and books away to needy children who do not have any and he helped us choose which to keep and which to give away. He is completely cool with it.
Rig will see 40 not 200 in 2009. You can quote me.
Good to be back after missing a few days in the real world partying with friends who are semi-aware of the crisis unfolding before our eyes.
I have started noticing changes in formerly spendthrift friends of mine – no expensive dinners in fancy places, home cooked meals preferred, buy good alcohol and drink it at home with friends etc.
This certainly bodes well for the future as people realize that living above our means is not sustainable and not having the latest gadgets is not a stigma.
Here is to hoping that 2009 is much better than 2008. Although I am short the market, I hope that I lose some money because that will mean that I get to keep my job.
Stu – Thanks for the recommendations for restaurants in Montclair. Did not have a chance to try them out, but definitely will do so the next time we get a chance.
John:
“She really can’t relate to it.”
Not yet, but the government bubble burst is coming in 2009. The loss in tax revenues are astronomical and state government bankruptcies will result in ugly layoffs. I do not wish teachers to be canned, rather their administrations. Unfortunately, it will end up being everyone with the pink slip. And where is a tenured teacher going to go to ply their trade in this economy? She can’t relate know, but she may be forced into relating tomorrow. On the bright side, she can get an extra $24/week thanks to Corzine.
Know should be now.
And someone should let bi know that SRS is up 10.5% since his last brilliant call.
Stu–
Very nice idea to get the little one involved.
Clot
MIL has a place in Lakeworth. It is a few miles inland from DelRay. They have had a growing problem over the past few years with the older snowbirds dying off, but not enough boomers coming into the market to pick up the inventory. This resulted in families dumping condos to anyone to get rid of them. The inventory was picked up by a lot of hispanic and people from the islands.
There are enough snowbirds and full time residents to keep the underlying economy going. The problem will be the retirees on fixed income getting crushed by low interest rates. They may be cutting their losses or repatriating back to family in NY/NJ or elsewhere for “financial repairs”. At the other end of the Palm Beach co stretch of the Intercoastal, you have the very rich. The fallout from the Madoff scandal could hit that crowd very badly, and cut back the amount of money they dump into the local economy.
My MIL is an Oncology nurse. She retired from NY, and moved full time to FL and took a job in a Palm Beach private clinic. I joked to her that should rent a room at the Palm Beach Country Club. She could run a $100 a head seminar on “How to file for Medicade”. It did not go down well.
Clot 118 – Last we visited Stu’s folks the Ft Lauderdale Sun Sentinel had entire sections of the paper listing foreclosure listings! Stu’s folks live in the Century Village West community in Boca. Some many units were available last year that the neighborhood associations were contemplating buying some of them to “keep up the comps”. The LPs on these places are now hovering near where they sold for when the place was built in the 1970’s – and I am not talking inflation adjusted dollars. The place looks depressing – think row after row of concentration camp style barracks apartment buildings, but they love the activities and the “big name” theatre. They get to see people like Hal Linden and Marilyn McCoo for $5/ticket.
Even if waterfront Florida real estate were free, I’d still be worried. Hurricaine insurance is crazy expensive and the deductibles go up each year. My friend with an ocean front place in New Smyrna had to shell out for 3 deductibles in a single season for repairs to her place.
Victorian 130 – Be sure to check out places during Montclair’s Restaurant Week in February. Many of the best places in town are offering $20 or $30 dinners.
http://www.gotomontclairnj.com/rest-week/restaurants.htm
We live in a condo and long ago told everyone we knew that we had no room for any kind of “stuff.”
We made it clear that gifts were a burden to us, not something that was appreciated. We get cash gifts from in-laws/parents which are put into a 529 account or used to buy a relevant item of our choosing based on need or desire.
It’s very free-ing not to have to worry about 40 throw pillows, napkin rings that never get used, random figurines, mismatched photo frames, crummy plastic toys, etc. We have less “stuff” than the other people we associate with, but that “stuff” does nothing to improve one’s quality of life.
Burden is the perfect word.
When I was a kid, my father declared that the house was full. He said the rule was “if something comes in, something of equivalent size has to go out.” It worked pretty well.
Re 140, Under that rule I would have brought a new Dad and Mom into the house.
renter: you were lucky not to have a little brother (of roughly equivalent size)
Re: cheap made in china junk and toys:
DH and I have told relatives over and over to stop bringing this stuff over to our son. Now I will let him play with it for a couple days, when it breaks or he ignores it it goes straight to the recycle bin (again about 48 hours). Drives us crazy, its all so wasteful and we have been on a lifestyle liquidation for the last three years (no clutter, no debt).
In other Florida real estate nightmares, parents’ friends are about to close on a $600k+ new home in Lake Mary in Seminole County. They are doing this despite ample fair warning that the house will be underwater beyond their expected life span. Might as well just burn the cash.
SAS, hope all works out with totes. We’ve had some great pets over the years. Our current one is a Terrier mix named Basti. He has a great personality. They really do become part of the family.
Reference STUFF. We’ve got so much stuff around here I can’t take it anymore. I’ve told my wife not to buy anything else. You just wouldn’t believe it. Most of it is just junk. Right now our house in NJ is empty while we get some work done on it. After the hardwood floors are refinished I can order the furniture. We’re going to have a minimal amount of stuff there, that is for sure.
Reference GUNS. Best to be like a Boy Scout- prepared. Training is key. Some people seem to think you can buy one, put it in the nightstand, and all is right in the world. You need some level of training so that in the heat of the moment you are able to operate the thing. Best to have several that operate in a similiar fashion. SIGs are good in that respect. You can have a concealed weapon and a full size one that operate the same.
The best is this Xmas my brother in law anounced he is no longer giving gifts, even to his own mother and father or neices and nephews including god children. But get this he has a two year old and a second one due any day now. The best is he also announced he is still accepting gifts. So my stupid aunt who lives near him when he found out he was having a second child stopped by his house to give a generous gift basket and gift card to babies r us, they are not home so she leaves it and lives a note she was there. Well a week goes by and she hears nothing and she is worried the basket was stolen. She calls him up and he says yea he got it but he also decided he no longer is writing thank you notes since why should he as he never asked for it in the first place that is also the reason he never called to say he got it. Even crazier, he thinks he can bring his wife and kid and soon to be kids to peoples houses for parties and bring nothing and he plans on never hosting a party himself. Now I am cheap but this is crazy. Even his Mother in law who watched his kid for free all year while his wife worked did not get a gift. So the final craziness of the story is we decided if he can make up rules so can I. I no longer invite him to parties at my house as I have enough people there and why should I feed his family. 2. Rather than punish his two year old I still buy hime a Bday gift and a Xmas gift, but funny part is I actually explained for everyone to hear to my children that their uncle is too cheap to buy you even a 99 cent gift and it did not bother him, that is priceless. BTW the guy has a 200K mortgage, two used cars and a 200K a year income. I personally would not even buy his kids a gift, but my wife wants to but I guess we will cut that off soon as the kid is old enough to understand that the reason he does not get gifts is that the older aunts and uncles living off a 40K a year penision can only subsidize a person making 200K for only so long. The last straw why he is no longer invited my wife told him look if you don’t want to buy a gift for your two year old neice, at least get a 99 cent card and a piece of candy so you have something, turns out that is too much effort. But the story gets even funnier, a relative did get invited to their house to see it when they bought it and was handed a clipper and rake and put to work, as the sucker was doing it he noticed something in the garage under a cover, the door was locked but when he jiggled door handle it popped open, under the drop clothe and under some boxes piled on top was a Mercedes, the guy actually parked his train station car in driveway to help make it seem he was impoverished to get people to clean his yard for free!!!
Hobocondo says:
December 29, 2008 at 1:08 pm
We live in a condo and long ago told everyone we knew that we had no room for any kind of “stuff.”
We made it clear that gifts were a burden to us, not something that was appreciated. We get cash gifts from in-laws/parents which are put into a 529 account or used to buy a relevant item of our choosing based on need or desire.
It’s very free-ing not to have to worry about 40 throw pillows, napkin rings that never get used, random figurines, mismatched photo frames, crummy plastic toys, etc. We have less “stuff” than the other people we associate with, but that “stuff” does nothing to improve one’s quality of life.
[84] Kettle,
True, but that is farther down the road. If I had to place a bet on the first state to secede, it would be Alaska, and no one would give me odds. That is because, in many ways, it already is an independent nation. Further, provided it gets to keep all those bases and equipment, the Alaska National Guard could do a decent job defending against all but a determined, full out Russian attack. In fact, I could see a new NATO (North American Treaty Org) come out of any reasonably functional dissolution with the US role now bifurcated (quadfurcated?) to Alaska, the New Confederacy, Pacifica, and the Peoples’ Republic of the Northeast. Canada keeps the same role.
John(126)-
Kepp tending your little corner of Jupiter. We’ll keep giving you reports from the real world here.
Thanks for the “too negative” diagnosis, but when I need analysis, I’ll turn to a professional, not a Wall St. shut-in.
[144] Jersey,
Remember to keep to common ammos. Thus any rifles I pick up next will be .223 cal (unless 0-man moves to ban the .50 cal, then I may have to get one for old times sake and long range capability).
Clot 146 – One of my former colleagues was a clinical psychologist who used to do guest appearances on Nancy Grace. When I read the transcripts (“Well, she`s evil, I`ll tell you right now, and a psychopath.” “In layman`s terms, she`s nuts”), I started to understand why she wasn’t practicing.
147. comrade nom deplume
Yes, I agree with common ammo. I have quite a few 9mm handguns but I also like the .45 ACP. One interesting handgun I have is an H&K 4. It has multiple barrels and magazines so it can fire .22, .25, .32, and .380. It is a pocket weapon and in the upcoming hardtimes the multiple calibers will be a good feature.
Nom 145 – Don’t forget, Sarah Palin is the Commander-In-Chief of the Alaska National Guard.
SAS
the question is how much better then argentina does this workout.
Cash-strapped states weigh selling roads, parks
Minnesota is deep in the hole financially, but the state still owns a premier golf resort, a sprawling amateur sports complex, a big airport, a major zoo and land holdings the size of the Central American country of Belize. Valuables like these are in for a closer look as 44 states cope with deficits. Like families pawning the silver to get through a tight spot, states such as Minnesota, New York, Massachusetts and Illinois are thinking of selling or leasing toll roads, parks, lotteries and other assets to raise desperately needed cash. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has hinted that his January budget proposal will include proposals to privatize some of what the state owns or does. The Republican is looking for cash to help close a $5.27 billion deficit without raising taxes. GOP lawmakers are pushing to privatize the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport and the state lottery. Both steps require a higher authority — federal legislation in the case of the airport, a voter-approved constitutional amendment for the lottery. But one lawmaker estimated an airport deal could bring in at least $2.5 billion, and the lottery $500 million.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hg0wYqy8Zp9_Tk2vaPr88iybfiCQD95B96Q00
Jim 149,
I have heard that you can convert a glock 31 from 357 to 40 S&W by swapping out the barrel. Dont know how accurate that is though
Store work on hold
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20081211/NEWS/812110363#
“Delivering another setback to long-promised upgrades at Coddingtown Mall, organic grocer Whole Foods Market said the poor economy has forced it to delay the opening of its half-built west Santa Rosa store until 2010.
Construction of the exterior of the building was completed last week, and improvements to the interior were supposed to begin immediately to allow the store to open in May.”
Nom,
I actually disagree with the russian professor suggesting a break up of the US by 2010. Every empire crumbles, but i think he overestimates some the dysfunctional factors.
I could eventually see a division like you suggest but it wouldnt be pretty. There are many interdependence between the different regions that would have to be settled.
I spent the Xmas week up in the tony Boston suburbs and went to a few holiday parties. Not much really seemed to change but attitudes were somewhat subdued. People are concerend about the economy but think The One is going to fix everything. There is some serious irrational belief in O up there. Some talk about how “prices never really go down here” but not as much as previous years. It does seem many are cutting back from going out to dinners/drinking but that is about the extent of it. The malls/stores were more crowded on the Sat after Xmas than the Sat before, perhaps a lot of bargain hunters about. One friend of a relative who traded up in 2006 (into Wellesley) admits he could not sell today for what he paid then. We didn’t see a lot of for sale signs but there was 18 inches of snow on the ground for most of the week. A lot of talk from people (mostly younger families) about moving to New Hampshire. This must be the MA equivalent of fleeing NJ to Bucks Co.
Briefing.com
Reports indicate that billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian’s Tracinda has divested its entire stake in Ford Motor (F 2.17, -0.12).
Earlier this year Tracinda made a cash tender offer for up to 20 million shares of Ford at a price of $8.50 per share. The tender offer came as Tracinda aimed to increase its stake in Ford to 5.5% from 4.7%. Shares of Ford currently trade for nearly 75% below Tracinda’s tender offer price.
Tracinda’s announcement follows the White House’s decision to make financing available to struggling U.S. automakers, though Ford has indicated it does not require the near-term financing that its counterparts require. Still, investors remain cognizant that Ford faces a challenging road to recovery, underscored by soft global economic conditions and weak consumer spending.
kettle1,
That is correct. Here is a company that sells the conversion barrels:
http://www.glock-doc.com/_wsn/page8.html
I don’t personally own a Glock but they are great weapons. A friend of mine is a retired Police Officer and improved his range scores after he bought one. They are accurate and reliable and you won’t go wrong if that was the only weapon you could have.
Grim (98)
Story from the frontlines concerning NJ unemployment claims. A client of mine was recently laid off and attempted to file for umemployment. She claims (I have no prove if true or not that) the unemployment website has been down for 2 weeks. She then attempted to apply in person at the Monmouth County Office in Neptune. The line was couple hundred people long. She called unemployment to find out what was going on and they told her they are back logged and do not have enough staff to handle the surge in claims. She then attempted to call the Governor’s Office, she claims they pretty much told her to pound sand but they were looking into the problems.
Escape:
I heard the same horror stories. Phone lines are so jammed that they simply hang up on you!
njgator: “Don’t forget, Sarah Palin is the Commander-In-Chief of the Alaska National Guard.”
I vaguely recall that Alaska (and its National Guard) is the only state which has its fighter jets on active alert. So, in theory it might be the Governor of Alaska (not the President Of The USA or NORAD General) who authorizes the first military action in time of war (ie to scramble jets to confront the Russians in AL airspace). Other states do not have similar issues (due to geography).
AL has enormous amount of federally owned land which would make Alaska extremely rich independent country (think of all that oil and gas). They surely would have enough money to buy all the best weapons in the world to defend themselves.
Clotpoll, what you are missing is on a macro basis no money was lost in housing in the secondary market. The guy who sold the home at an inflated price still has the cash, heck I sold a home in 2005 and put the procedes in bonds, all that stock people bought in 2006 and 2007 that fell like a brick, guess what there was someone at the other end of the trade and they have your cash. Heck my neighbor has not worked since 2000, he flipped houses up to early 2006 and when he sold the last one at break even he stopped, he cleared a few hundred thousand. Guess what he ain’t giving that money back. Fact of the matter when the bank gave a 800K loan on an inflated house they did not get the money the seller did. Pretty much people who bought or sold nothing since 2000 this is no big deal, people who sold more than they bought since 2000 this is no big deal. Just the dopes who thought a cape was a bad deal at 150K in 1998, a bad deal at 200K in 2000, a bad deal at 250K in 2002 and a great deal at 400K in 2005 got burnt.
Clotpoll says:
December 29, 2008 at 1:41 pm
John(126)-
Kepp tending your little corner of Jupiter. We’ll keep giving you reports from the real world here.
Thanks for the “too negative” diagnosis, but when I need analysis, I’ll turn to a professional, not a Wall St. shut-in.
on the budget tip: A&P’s produce is insanely expensive. 2.60 for TWO baking potatoes. Lemons, a buck a piece. Friends of mine have clued me into these little produce mom and pops around here in suburbia, they say prices are a small fraction of the big grocers. Only problem, I have a hard enough time getting my azz to one grocery, (hate grocery shopping) now I have to go to two.
Clotpol, are you sure people are broke?
Cash at 18-Year High Makes Stocks a Buy at Leuthold (Update3)
Email | Print | A A A
By Eric Martin and Michael Tsang
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) — There’s more cash available to buy shares than at any time in almost two decades, a sign to some of the most successful investors that equities will rebound after the worst year for U.S. stocks since the Great Depression.
The $8.85 trillion held in cash, bank deposits and money- market funds is equal to 74 percent of the market value of U.S. companies, the highest ratio since 1990, according to Federal Reserve data compiled by Leuthold Group and Bloomberg.
158: “She claims (I have no prove if true or not that) the unemployment website has been down for 2 weeks.”
This sounds like Govt run health care in the UK. They have a mandate that ER-patients must be treated in 15 minutes. The solution: Keep ER-patients waiting in ambulances outside of the hospital as long as needed and only bring them inside when they can be treated immediately (ie 60 minute wait in ambulance, then 1 minute wait in ER + the 1 minute wait is used in the official statistics). Hospital gets big bonus for fulfilling the govt mandate.
Jamil 160 –
“Maj. Gen. Craig Campbell, adjutant general of the Alaska National Guard, considers Palin “extremely responsive and smart” and says she is in charge when it comes to in-state services, such as emergencies and natural disasters where the National Guard is the first responder.
But, in an interview with The Associated Press on Sunday, he said he and Palin play no role in national defense activities, even when they involve the Alaska National Guard. The entire operation is under federal control, and the governor is not briefed on situations.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/31/alaska-national-guard-gen_n_122860.html
PeaceNow
Got two fosters in the house now, bringing the household cat population up to five. We volunteer over at the Triboro shelter, which has about ten cats at any time on-site.
Jim,
the glock 22 with the 357 conversion and the glock 23 with the 9mm conversion would be a very nice combo for ammo versatility.
So what do the cats think about the recession and the housing problem?
Any good suggestions on how to best short treasury bonds? Found SHV, but I’ve noticed that short ETFs do not seem to perform as designed, except for short term trades.
njgator: huffpost is not worth commenting.
This is the same Maj Gen Craig Campbell commenting:
“CAMPBELL: Yes. Governor Palin is in charge, the commander-in-chief for the Alaska National Guard, and she plays the same role that all governors in all 54 states and territories play, running and managing and operating the Guard day to day for the states that they’re responsible for.
I’ll tell you, in the last few days, I’ve been watching the press, and I’ve not been very pleased with what I’ve been seeing about the chastising of the National Guard by having it diminished by the insinuation that a commander-in-chief of the National Guard doesn’t really control the military. The National Guard has 500,000 people in it around this great country, serving in states and overseas. National Guards are state military forces run by governors, and Sarah Palin does it great.”
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,418323,00.html
171. grim says:
December 29, 2008 at 2:46 pm
re: cats and housing
———————————
Grim,
I believe the NYT had an article a few weeks ago about people abandoning household pets due to the cost of upkeep in these hard times. We are just at the beginning of this thing. I wonder what tough choices people will be making once times really get hard.
Jamil 170 – I could say the same about Fox News
Palin’s military command limited
“When members of the National Guard are federalized, they work for the president,” Campbell said Wednesday. “It’s not just overseas. They could be federalized to go to other states, or they could even be federalized in the state.”
Occasions in which Palin does retain command authority over the 4,200-member Alaska National Guard are whenever the guard responds to in-state natural disasters and civic emergencies, said Campbell, who also serves as commissioner of the state Department of Military and Veterans Affairs.
Some examples?
“We’ve deployed individuals in state service all over the state under Sarah Palin,” he said. “We had defense men down in Seward for the (Mount) Marathon run doing security.
“Out west and northwest we had erosion problems and the National Guard was involved in some of the protection out there. About three days ago, the Army National Guard picked up a lady from Little Diomede … at the request of state troopers.”
Did Palin directly approve each of those activities?
No, Campbell said. The governor has granted him authority to act on his own in most cases, including life-or-death emergencies when a quick response is required, or minor day-to-day operations.
http://www.adn.com/sarah-palin/story/515499.html
Can I ask a naive question regarding Palin and the Alaskan National Guard?
I can’t fathom why on earth has so much ink been wasted on that topic.
1) Why does it even matter?
2) Who cares?
174. grim
when she was running for VP she depicted herself as The Badass In Charge by referencing the Alaskan National Guard and Alaska’s close proximity to Russia. She contrasted this to Obama’s lowly “community activist” experience. She got called out on her bullsh*t.
The End.
It doesn’t Grim. Just a rebut to the bogus canard of her foreign policy experience and credentials.
And I clearly have too much time on my hands this week when my office should really be closed.
Lucky Stu’s office network went down (he swears he had nothing to do with it) and he is enroute to home to watch Rutgers play in the Papajohns.com Bowl. Just the fact that there is a Papajohns.com bowl means that something needs to be done to reform post season college football.
#176 & 177 – and now it makes sense, thank you.
grim: I can assure you no ink is wasted here.
Njgator: National Guard is not federalized until something happens (POTUS federalizes it) so it is the AL national guard (the governor unless she has authorized the general to act on his own) who is in charge of scrambling the jets.
Anyway, at least Palin didn’t claim US drove Hezbollah out of Lebanon (as did Mr Foreign Policy in VP debate) – but naturally this or any other BS of his were not called out by O-media.
Jamil – I am done responding after this(sorry Grim), yes POTUS federalizes the Guard, but as stated in the article SP delegates almost all state guard responsibilities and decisions to the General in charge of the Guard. There are very few things they seek the Gov’s office approval for before acting. She is a very hands off manager.
You know what is even weirder, shelters in Long Beach Long Island, Hamptons and Jersey Shore get the most dogs and cats Tuesday after Labor Day weekend. Seems share houses get a house dog or cat and when the last person turns off light on Labor day they just let it go. Also shelters near apartment rental complexes get the most pets on the 1st of the month. People just let them go when they lose their place at the end of the month. I wanted a shih tzu once from a shelter and found one on petfinder at the Long Beach animal shelter, it was gone by the time I got there, women told me come back on next week on Tuesday after Labor day, sure enough they picked up ten dogs that weekend.
Jersey Jim says:
December 29, 2008 at 2:55 pm
171. grim says:
December 29, 2008 at 2:46 pm
re: cats and housing
———————————
Grim,
I believe the NYT had an article a few weeks ago about people abandoning household pets due to the cost of upkeep in these hard times. We are just at the beginning of this thing. I wonder what tough choices people will be making once times really get hard.
Wasn’t Dan Quale a big nation guard guy too?
re: #174- Grim – I will answer since I am bored.
#1 re: “Why does it even matter?”
P*alin leading National Guard in Alaska against the Russians was one of the biggest spin stories in the election, it was if she was Teddy Roosevelt leading the charge up San Juan Hill on horseback.
#2 It is lies like this that get people elected.
The truth is The Governor of Alaska has nothing to do with command and control of those F-15, and F-22 Jets when they are scrambled to meet the Russian Tupelov bombers in International Air Space (which happens much much more than you may think) she is notified by her National Guard commander after the fact, because the Air National guard helps run the radar but does not fly the intercepts.
Elmendorf air force base is operated under Norad (US & Canada) the Pacific fleet controls the USA part. The 11th Air Force and a Canadian Forces Air Command detachment are there full time to detect and intercept any intrusion into U.S. or Canadian airspace. The National Guard provides search and rescue along with other support services but does not do the intercepts.
In reality Palin has less control of the air forces there than the President of Canada.
I hope everyone had, or is continuing to have a very happy and peaceful holiday weekend!
I think the highlight of our mutli-cultural holiday celebrations (everything from Polish Christmas Eve to Vegan Latkes) was celebrating Polish Christmas Eve (Wigilia) with my friend’s family. About 30 people, 280 homemade pierogies and my friend’s FATHER offering me a shot of Goldschlager. I haven’t had a shot of Goldschlager since 1994. I probably shouldn’t be surprised. These parents are the ones that have taken Stu and me out for a cruise in their convertible and then drinking at the bars and are also the ones that let our book group use their pool for a midnight skinny dip and supplied the alcohol.
@jamil,
AL = Alabama
Alaska = AK
@sas,
Sorry to hear about your cat. But don’t be stupid. Your grief is only worth so much expense. (I happily paid $$$$ to have a fir cone – and three inches of small intestine – removed at age 13, but I wouldn’t go for tumor removal at age 16 when she had gone deaf and clearly felt life wasn’t worth living.)
@bi,
Thanks for the trade idea. Long SKF in the am, out of half in the pm. Keeping the rest because something else has got to break after new years.
170 prtraders2000
DH has been trading TBT- ProShares ultra short Lehman 20+ yr. All disclaimers. We keep it tight- hedging with options.
Best meal of the holidays …
Eggs benny with a twist: Fried pastrami instead of back bacon and on latkes, not an english muffin.
No cholesterol test for me!
For Kettle and Chifi,
Five Things You Need to Know: The Rush to Disassociate
2008 was only the beginning of a growing wave of anti-consumption sentiment.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/mood-consumers-behavior-psychology-retribution/index/a/20467
SAS: SOme years ago we had a 13 year old cat that had a very difficult tumor to remove. At the advice of our vet (we were living in Carlisle PA at the time; U.S. Army War College) we took her to the University of Penn vet school in University City in Phila. They specialize in difficult procedures, perfected liver transplants in small animals, etc., and have a very experienced teaching staff. If you need something done that the average vet is not familiar with, check out Penn.
[156] jbjb,
NH is to MA what Bucks is to NJ, true, but there are caveats (having lived in that region most of my life, I can attest). First, property taxes in NH are very high relative to Mass. In compensation, housing costs are lower in SoNH than in most comparable MA communities. Second, if you live in NH and work in MA, you don’t avoid MA income taxes. And if you work in Boston, that commute is a bitch, and there is no Amtrak to live on unless you are in the part of NH serviced by it.
Also, SoNH is getting so overrun by us massholes that it is resembling that which we all ran away from in the first place, only with higher property taxes. Result is NH gov going democratic and governor and legislators now considering taxes and social policies that would have gotten them lynched 20 years ago.
The break-up of the United States? The only thing I can’t understand is why isn’t this guy a regular on this blog?
————————————–
Russian Professor Predicts Fall of U.S. in 2010
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,473529,00.html
What nonsense:
“P*alin leading National Guard in Alaska against the Russians was one of the biggest spin stories in the election, it was if she was Teddy Roosevelt leading the charge up San Juan Hill on horseback.”
I watched most of the 2008 election coverage and I don’t reall SP ever making such a claim. She was asked a question about her FP experience and she gave an answer (not a very good one, but an answer). I am pretty sure it was not a topic she discussed much for obvious reasons.
“when she was running for VP she depicted herself as The Badass In Charge by referencing the Alaskan National Guard and Alaska’s close proximity to Russia. She contrasted this to Obama’s lowly “community activist” experience. She got called out on her bullsh*t.”
Talk about bullsh*t. Again, I dont ever recall SP depciting herself as a Badass in Charge of anything, and she certainly didnt’ campaign on the issue. And her comment about “community activist” was in reponse to the O press release after she was nominated labeling her a lowly “small town mayor”. Bash SP’s experience all you want (although I doubt you cared much when John Edwards was on the ticket, and you probably think Caroline Kennedy has what it takes to be a great Senator), but don’t try and lie about events that happended one month ago.
for everyone arguing over whether Palin controls the Guard, I think you are missing the point.
1. YOu assume that if disintegration happens, Palin will still be gov (and thus President of Alaska).
2. You further assume that the US gov can federalize the guard of what will then be a sovereign nation.
Thus, the point is that conditions that exist in 2010 after a breakup, secession or whatever you call it, will be different and the rules in place today won’t be there tomorrow.
And besides, too much bandwidth devoted to an off topic trial balloon and a concluded election.
Grim [192] in mod?
Sean: Hogwash, as usual.
Yes, in practice it is some general who gives the order to shoot down Russian jets, but the Governor is in charge of units (and certainly this was superior background for future CIC, compared to community activist).
As for AK National Guard:
The 49th Missile Defense Battalion of the Alaska National Guard is the unit that protects the entire nation from ballistic missile attacks. It’s on permanent active duty, unlike other Guard units.
The Governor is also the commander in chief of the Alaska State Defense Force (ASDF), a federally recognized militia incorporated into Homeland Security’s counterterrorism plans.
More about AK National Guard (especially 49th Missile Defense Battalion)
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=2483
NJCoast says:
December 29, 2008 at 3:33 pm
170 prtraders2000 DH has been trading TBT- ProShares ultra short Lehman 20+ yr. All disclaimers. We keep it tight- hedging with options.
NJC: You understand while the outlook behind this bet is good, you are getting triple-murdered on your cost of carry: short-Treasury interest; cost of the leverage; premium deterioration on the hedge through the passage of time. If you make money…great, but you are being sandbagged like a MF’er…..
#191,
He’s, it’s either Stu or Clotpoll. I can’t figure it out.
I forgot #4: ETF expenses…..
Bost & albani: I am no longer out of your camp. I am not a “bet the house” dude like you guys, but I think you have it right for now.
To anyone else: as far as you are concerned I am discussing which is better: McD fries or BK’s……
[198] Chi
McD’s. No contest.
Definitely McD’s
Jamil,
Wake up man I was my hog with soap and water, P*alin does not have the missle codes and has no control over those 11 interceptor missiles.
Operation of national defense assets like the Ft. Greely missile interceptors are not the responsibility of state governors. Those functions come under the regular U.S. military chain of command. Google it….
P*alin is best suited for handing out Christmas presents, as the ONLY search found of her name on your defense link
website shows.
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=52291
Chi-
Thanks for the tip. We just put on a trade last week for the first time and have some profits. Maybe time to cash in those chips and leave the table.
#198 ChiFi
Wendys
NJGator – Vegan Latkes – I am shuddering over here. That’s just wrong!
Worst fries ever are at In-&-Out. They might be all natural and fresh, but they taste like nothing. Now their shakes and burgers…that’s a whole notha story!
“I have heard that you can convert a glock 31 from 357 to 40 S&W by swapping out the barrel. Dont know how accurate that is though”
I prefer not to switch barrels, can cause alot of jamming after the first shot.
Glocks aren’t bad.
I have a pistol that was given to me by an x-KGB
Tokarev TT pistol from 1933.
talk about cool.
SAS
chicagofinance says:
Both, I have a McD’s and a BK a block apart both with drivethroughs, I like to do a whopper, onion ring run through followed by a McD French Fry, sundae pass. Or sometimes I do iced carmel coffer at McDs at BK coffee stinks. McDs shakes are pumped with air so BK wins there. Also it depends on the 99 cent menu, they usually leave one or two good things off to nail you but the other has it. A proper fast food meal ALWAYS involves a trip to both drivethroughs.
December 29, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Bost & albani: I am no longer out of your camp. I am not a “bet the house” dude like you guys, but I think you have it right for now.
To anyone else: as far as you are concerned I am discussing which is better: McD fries or BK’s……
PGC 203 – I flirt with vegan cooking all the time, and even I wouldn’t think of making vegan latkes, but I did find them a recipe that was actually really tasty.
I am glad I talked her out of the recipe that used oats as a binding agent. That would have been scary!
All of their guests were non-vegans and most of the others were non-Jews. I just couldn’t bear their first latke experience to be that bad. It kind of reminded me of their 3 year old’s birthday party this summer when they tried to serve the kids soy hot dogs. That didn’t go over very well with the toddler set.
but for some reason, its always the cops that like Glocks??
and the FBI agents always like SIG-Sauer??
never understood why the affinity.
SAS
192 Nom – All true. Assuming Alaska does not secede, I would think SP would try and take out Lisa Murkowski or Don Young in a primary and head to Washington.
She and her husband do have connections to the AIP, so I think being the first President of Alaska would be an even more attractive post. By 2010 she could probably delegate most of the day to day responsibilities to Trig.
Sean: Anyway, the original issue here wrt AK national guard was their ability to survive as an independent country. They would have not only enormous wealth (oil, gas), no debt, and competent President, but also well-capable Army (current National Guard units and some leftover federal bases and jets).
And yes, Governor is the commander-in-chief of National Guard (which in AK case is even more real as National Guard units are actually on permanent duty) and for the elections this was certainly better experience than being committee hack who thought US drove Hezbollah out of Lebanon (or being a community activist).
Anyway, as grim seems to be using inkjets to print everything, better to move on.
njgator: Trig??
So you are now focusing on a Down-syndrome baby. Classy, as always.
I would say you a truly sick person.
Vegans drive me nuts. When I take them to lunch or invite them over I always go out of my way to have a vegan meal for them. Yet when they invite me they always try to jam vegan slop down my throat even though I hate it. My favorite is a lady I knew had an alcohol free vegan wedding in a hotel. Now under the geneva convention that should not be allowed. Anyhow although they booked all the restuarants the hotel lobby bar was still open to the public. To top it off she had the reception during the NFL playoffs. So naturally a few guys drifted to the lobby bar to catch the game, get some real drinks and grab some bar food chicken wings and burgers. The bride notices that 1/3 of the men are missing and figures it out and starts some yelling about them disrespecting her and how dare they bring their “meat breath” back into her wedding reception. JC, if a veggie snuck out of my wedding to hit trader joes for some soy milk and raw carrots would I be yelling how dare you bring your “veggie breath” in here?
No wedding should ever be alcohol free. Vegan or not. THAT os just plain wrong.
My brother once brought a Sony Watchman to a wedding reception since his team was in a big game. My mother almost killed him, but all the men at the party pretty much made him the MVP!
Please no trig or totes bashing. We are very touchy today.
When I used to go to Jets games some nut two rows ahead of me had a watchman and used to watch the whole game on the TV on his lap. Very weird. I can see it for the replays, but this dude would get kidded on it and since the seats were like ten from the top on the end zone he used to say he could see better on it. Very Strange. I guess hearing the fireman yell and no commericals is worth $50 bucks a game.
Chi –
I don’t like the ETF fees either. Other than the short ETFs, how could you short treasuries?
The main thing to take away here is that the government has demonstrated that they have and will continue to borrow money by the hundreds of billions. As yields on treasuries rise, prices will drop, especially on longer-dated treasuries. Now, the question becomes exactly how do we play this? Not everyone has access to shorting the 10 year and 20 year treasuries outright, so I am here to offer some other alternatives. As I laid out in my first post on shorting treasuries, there are a few vehicles in the stock market that one can turn to, such as tickers ProShares UltraShort Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (PST) and ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT).
PST is the ETF for UltraShort the 7-10 year treasury. An UltraShort ETF seeks twice the inverse of the underlying security. So, buying PST gives you twice the inverse of the performance of the 7-10 year treasury (effectively a double short). Additionally, TBT is the ETF for UltraShort the 20+-year treasury. This ETF seeks twice the inverse performance of the 20+-year treasury (also a double short). So, those are two very easy ways for people to get short treasuries by buying those tickers in the stock market.
Additionally, Hutchinson suggests the Rydex Inverse Government Long Bond Strategy (Juno) Fund, (RYJUX) as another way to play it. This fund takes various short positions in Treasury bond futures, and therefore, it will rise as treasury prices decline. We’ve selected TBT as our way to short treasuries, as we feel the longer-dated paper (20-year treasuries) will offer a better short as treasury prices decline.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/105775-shorting-treasuries-what-s-the-rationale?source=feed
Been to a baptist wedding with no alcohol, I was also the only white guy there. Had lots of fun, these things are what you make of them.
One day I hope to go to a wedding where I don’t have to wear a suit, closest I came was in the Dominican Republic but in the end the bride would have killed the men if we showed up in flip flops.
I like investments without fees too. Anyone care to recommend one?
[215] John
Fireman Ed is (reportedly) an azzhole. My friends have seats very close to him and at the last game I attended, none of the season ticket holders around him had anything nice to say about the guy. Near unanimity in their opinions says something.
Interesting to note TBT had 3X 3mo avgvolume today and PST nearly 2x
[209] gator
Ouch. Guess you have no love for the folks in fly-over country.
John (164)-
Wow, what a revelation. Massive amounts of cash held on the sidelines by former shareholders who’ve been blasted to smithereens. I’m sure thy’re just itching to jump right back into the crocodile pool from which they’ve just extracted themselves.
The Madoff thing should also have all those big retail investors ready to pull the trigger, too.
Notice how no cash- anywhere- is moving? That’s the only reason we don’t have Zimbabwean inflation right now.
When the cash starts moving again, look out.
[205] SAS
I like the Makarov. Heavy but balanced, no kick to speak of, and I can put most of the clip in the k-ring at a respectable distance, something I cannot do with my detective special (but with the staghorn handles, a very cool piece).
Nom 221 – From everything I have read, SP is a very hands off type of exec. My Trig comment was merely sarcasm. I have no issues with Alaskans. I think Alaska is actually some of the most beautiful country I have ever visited. Would be a pity for the rest of us if they actually seceded.
[208] sas
Glocks are light. If you gotta carry a piece around, you want less weight.
Glocks are also (reputedly) very reliable.
Glocks also have variable trigger tension–the first round has a fairly high amount of pull required, but the second round tension drops off dramatically. This helps prevent accidental misfires in initial staredowns, but also allows quicker firing once the firefight has begun.
(Full disclosure–Dad is a cop)
[224] gator
This is true of many states—with everything federalized, they are pretty much turnkey operations for distributing federal money and redistributing state money.
Back when we got Jane “Not So” Swift for governor, the outgoing governor (and his predecessor) both commented on how it was job that required no real effort. Being female, inexperienced and republican, the Boston Globe went to town on her.
[224] Gator,
Truthfully, aside from the loss of territory, the loss of Alaska as a state probably would not mean very much. It produces little in the way of tax revenue except for whatever extraction fees or royalties the feds get for the oil (if any), and doesn’t require much maintenance. Losing Alaska would be, economically speaking, like losing Des Moines. All of the same trade would still be occurring except you would now be buying oil and fish from a foreign nation.
“Glocks also have variable trigger tension”
yes, good point.
SAS
Can’t wait to utter my first “Jamil sucks” of 2009.
Give it a rest, pal. Your guys bollocksed it up for a long time. Now the others get their turn.
No diff between the two parties. They’re both full of crooks and jackasses.
The Palin obsession is amusing. What’s more amusing is that she has more experience than The Messiah, and wasn’t even running for the #1 slot.
But who cares? The election is over, The Messiah will lead us through.
Anyone have insights on Caroline Kennedy serving as the next US Senator for New York?
How does her “experience” measure up? Clearly she will receive the same venom and hostility as Governor Palin, right?
How about her children, any birth defects to mock?
[216],
You can short the 10 Year futures. Go to CBOT for info. The fed will be on the other side of the trade.
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=ZNH9&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=
“Pension Fight Signals What Lies Ahead”
http://tinyurl.com/8uh2v8
The pension fund for thousands of New Jersey teachers and government workers is now about $60 billion, after investments declined by 24.6 percent or about $21 billion through November, according to reports delivered to the State Investment Council.
About 700,000 retirees are counting on the fund to cover benefits that are scheduled to cost more than $118 billion over the next several decades.
Someone trying to bail on their condo at the Hoboken W Hotel before they close.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?lid=1105192789&fhadv=146718&fhv=1
Wonder how well that’s going to work.
“CITY PENSION NIGHTMARE”
http://tinyurl.com/7zo4vc
The city’s five pension funds have lost close to 30 percent in the Wall Street crisis this year – threatening to hit taxpayers like an economic tsunami for years to come, experts are warning.
An estimated $30 billion in recent pension investment losses – a bloodbath tied to the market downturn – would have to be covered by the city’s operating budget starting in 2010.
“This is a scary situation. The losses are so big it could overwhelm the city,” said John Murphy, former executive director of the New York City Employee Retirement System, the largest pension fund.
NYCERS alone lost $3.5 billion in the three months ending Sept. 30, a report shows. It lost about twice as much in the disastrous months since then, Murphy said.
Similar losses by four other pension funds, for police, firefighters, teachers and other city employees, bring total assets down $30 billion from more than $100 billion a year ago, Murphy and other sources estimate.
By law, the city must make up the difference when the pension funds earn less than 8 percent a year. The city can spread the cost of plugging that gap over the following six years.
Nom 227 – Was only speaking about the sheer physical beauty of the place. If you have not been there, it is an immensely awe striking place. I have been longing to go back since we visited 8 years ago, but now with Lil Gator in the picture, we don’t have enough time for the length of visit required to do it justice.
If Alaska leaves, maybe they take some of the other federal welfare states along with it? Alabama, Mississippi? Heck they can have all of the SEC West if we could just keep New Orleans.
“condo at the Hoboken W Hotel”
holy crow!
you see that price tag…
what sap would buy that?
SAS
227 com:
“the loss of Alaska as a state probably would not mean very much. It produces little in the way of tax revenue except”
Once Alaska starts selling its gas and oil to the highest bidder (China), I’m pretty sure the people in the remaining states would disagree.
“Alaska produces about 1.8 million barrels of oil and 1.25 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily. This is about 25% of the total United States production..Alaska holds an estimated 30 percent of the total proven United States oil reserve. Under Alaska’s outer continental shelf lies an estimated 41 percent of U.S. offshore gas reserves”
It would be interesting to have Blue States of America. They would soon find out that food does not originate from Trader Joe’s and energy is not produced in the wall plug. All those private jets Al Gore and Caroline Kennedy are using need oil.
231 Qwerty – I don’t think Governor’s should be able to make appointments to federal offices. That should be handled in a special election so that the voters get a say in who represents them. Recent gubernatorial appointments have not been exactly awe inspiring – Corzine picking Bob Menendez, Alaska Gov Murkowski appointing his own daughter, Delaware’s Gov appointing Biden’s COS to try and save the seat for Biden’s son and the arrest of the Ill Gov.
Caroline Kennedy’s biggest qualification for the appointment is her name. That was Hilary’s qualification when she got elected, but at least she got the voters to elect her. Hopefully Kennedy ticks off Gov. Patterson enough so that he picks someone else.
i think this article might have slipped through the cracks. just seeing it now for the first time.
“Motorola freezes pension plans
Cell phone maker announces pension freeze and suspends matching contributions to 401(k)s; execs take a pay cut”
http://tinyurl.com/7on5u7
“it will “permanently freeze” all U.S. pension plans by March 1, 2009″
Gator- vegan latkes
I was vegan for a while and I happen to make kick ass latkes these days. What makes the ones your friend had different? Latkes by definition are vegan- they contain no animal products. What goes in them- potatoes, onion, matzoah meal or flour and fry them up in vegetable oil. So what is all the fuss about?
“holy crow!
you see that price tag…
what sap would buy that?”
Well it WILL have an awesome view of NYC.
I heard that Gov. Corzine bought one of the 2 penthouses in the W.
“Well it WILL have an awesome view of NYC”
just buy a 99cent post card for a view.
lol
SAS
re: cats and housing
What John reports about LI is also true here at the Jersey shore. I can’t tell you how many cats and dogs are just abandoned after Labor Day, once the summer rental is over. Of course, these animals were “adopted” at the beginning of the summer, when they were cute little kittens and puppies. It’s usually harder to find homes for fully grown pets, so these poor animals—if they’re lucky(?)—end up spending the rest of their lives in cages at a no-kill shelter. And those places are pretty crowded these days.
On a humorous note, be sure to check out the stories of laid-off workers featured in New York Magazine this week. The comments of the under-30 participants are laughable. Also frightening.
nymag.com
NJCoast says:
December 29, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Chi- Thanks for the tip. We just put on a trade last week for the first time and have some profits. Maybe time to cash in those chips and leave the table.
NJC: you don’t have to bail….just realize that even in a constant treasury market, the momentum of the fund is a downward drag in the price day to day…..the only real concern is that the flight to quality in long-term treasuries stays intact for weeks and you lose all of your gain just by the passage of time….
Hobokenite,
i think for that kind of jack, might as well buy a nice pad in manhattan, with nice views.
don’t you think?
SAS
Lost 241 – Most latke recipes include eggs as a binding agent, no? The recipe I gave my friend was from Myra Kornfeld’s “The Voluptuous Vegan”. It was a big hit, even with the meat eaters.
247 Gator
Yes the egg. I forgot about that. However, there are egg substitutes that work well. And honestly, if its being used as a binding agent and not for taste or as a main staple ingredient, what is the big deal? Jeez, say the word vegan and people react like you just $hit on their plate.
I will have to check that recipe though.
No diff between the two parties. They’re both full of crooks and jackasses.
Amen!
sl
sas: “Motorola freezes pension plans”
Glad they are not too big to fail anymore. 401k match suspension was a bit surprise, though.
IBM and other big companies have also done this recently. Moving from defined-benefit to defined-contribution (401k) plans is the only choice that is sustainable. Govt parasites, of course, are different. They are entitled to everything and there is a sucker born every minute to be taxed to the death.
BC Bob- We were going to open a futures account but they wanted $55.00 a month per exchange for data feeds.
DH bought TBT and wrote out of the money calls to compensate for the cost of carry until the market moves. They’re paying decent premiums for calls. He keeps the expirations close. He also watches his positions lliterally all day as he is retired.
All disclaimers.
[236] Gator,
You presume that they would remain welfare states. Were that to be the case, I would think the folks in the more economically viable states would say “no thanks, Feds, they’re your problems.”
As for the “welfare elements” in those states, they will be persuaded to migrate to other states once seceding states announce that welfare will no longer be offered and that citizenship will not be automatic (e.g., in colonial times, a local magistrate could issue a warrant and order newcomers to a town to leave if it was apparent that they would be a burden on the public fisc. If the warrant wasn’t served in 30 days, the people could stay. I could easily see something like that being adopted in towns in an lot of secessionist states).
Personally, with the exception of Alaska, I cannot see secession happening here. There are far too many forces that tend toward retention of the union for most states. Think centripical versus centrifugal forces. To succeed, any effort at secession in the lower 48 will have to follow a near collapse in the economy, massive unemployment, febrile federal response (or worse, a response that exacts more from the remaining middle class), massive civil unrest in the state, typically in the urban areas, and dissatisfaction with the federal response. Sadly, the past visuals are Weimar Germany or 1950’s Missisippi, but that will be the crucible that breeds secessionist sentiment.
Njgator: “If Alaska leaves, maybe they take some of the other federal welfare states ”
It is always amusing to see Blue States complain about this. Progressive taxation means that people who earn more, pay more taxes to the federal government. Are you now supporting flat tax?
Besides, the states most likely to request federal bailout from O are CA, NJ, MI, and NY. Any idea what might be the common factor here?
NY Fat Tax:
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2008/12/the-doctor-is-in-cyberspace.html
States can’t become independent, because most are owned by Foreign Countries, like China. They would have to pay off their portion of Federal Foreign Debt, which is not feasible.
[253] Jamil,
On blogs, I always find lots of folks, usually blue state liberals, that taunt red state folks with “go ahead, leave.” If there ever was a serious secessionist movement by certain states, and it would have to be a signficant block, like Texas and the southern states, or Texas, the plain states and Mountain West, then it would be amusing to see how the federal government responded. Would we see regular army troops mobilized to face state national guards? I don’t know but I doubt it, in part for the reasons I gave earlier—things would have to be so bad that the feds could not offer any meaningful response.
But the initial euphoria by liberals at having jettisoned the mouth-breathers in fly-over country would be tempered by the flood of refugees from the seceding states, the loss of tax revenue from those states, the eventual loss of jobs, and the fact that they now rely for food and fuel on a potentially-hostile foreign power.
I’d like to be around for it. It would suck, but I would be fascinated by what transpires.
[255] Confused.
I don’t think so. They would have their state debt, but they would not be liable for the federal debt—there isn’t any obligation running to the states, so there isn’t even any federal debt to repudiate. US bonds are backed only by the full faith and credit of the US government. There are no assets backing them up, and no bondholder can come in and insist on getting Dallas County in foreclosure.
Nom,
You bring up a good issue. What groups of states would be viable on their own? Would a break away group of states even be viable if they do not have enough base production capacity such as food, power generation etc.
Food and power generation are so heavily distributed that many groupings of states could easily be prevented from seceding simply by threatening to cut off food and electricity to them.
256:
It would be interesting exercise to find out what portion of energy and food comes from the red states (including refineries in red states) to the blue states. I would assume that in energy it is at least 80%. If blue states had to buy all that from foreign sources and build up the refineries, they would go broke pretty soon. Alaska should only accept payments in gold.
Also, new energy developments are mainly in red states (WY,offshore TX,AK).
Texas and Alaska would be fine as independent countries. I don’t think it is that far-fetched. I just don’t believe blue states could survive. They are totally dependent on the red states (on military, energy, food).
Once Trader Joe’s reserves are exhausted, what they would eat and how they would heat their apartments or charge their ipods?
I am going to say that all of this discussion of the breaking up of the United States is predicated on the fact that most of the posters seem to be polarized in their ideology and somewhat myopic in their vision. I have lived in Red and Blue states and really cannot tell the difference. People in both places want the same things. Talk of the country breaking up and which states would fare best on their own is somewhat comical in the face of states coming to the FEDs with their hands out looking for relief. As for who can love an/or leave the country. That freedom belongs to anyone, but usually takes money and imagination. Not to mention the ability to contribute to your new nation….something many who are posting tonight are barely able to do under ideal circumstances.
#253 jamil,
Besides, the states most likely to request federal bailout from O are CA, NJ, MI, and NY. Any idea what might be the common factor here?
The elected officials are a bunch of clowns? those 4 states are the trendsetters/trailblazers for the other 4 states to follow? So many possibilities.
“Talk of the country breaking up and which states would fare best on their own is somewhat comical in the face of states coming to the FEDs with their hands out looking for relief”
i think a break up is really not likely.
the system wants consolidation. not break up.
SAS
Mall report
1) My wife and her buddy were scoring designer clothes at 30 cents on the dollar, or less.
I got me some bling bling. Had to use the pretax medical savings account by 12/31. I got a pair of Sean John rx glasses. Never thought I would get something from that clown. Now where did I put my MC Hammer pants and my benz necklace? Maybe they are still in my parents basement. hmmm
Besides….if the red states broke of from the blue ones…the children of red staters would want to move to the Blue States even worse than they already do now. Talk to your average bored kid in a flyover state…most dream of living on the coast.
then again
“Lakota activists declare secession from US”
http://tinyurl.com/9r4afv
#162 John: Kind of odd after all the stories you have posted in the last couple of years, and all of your recommendations etc, we are just now hearing about a house you sold in 2005.
#231 Qwerty,
I couldn’t believer hew qualifications either. She’s a mom and a fundraiser. Great.
Completely disgusting. Wonder if her name is being tossed around so we’ll feel less disgusted by Cuomo or whoever else gets it.
Don’t worry bairen…pretty soon serving in the senate will have the same negative implications for one’s career that say working for a big wall street bank does today.
#268 Essex,
Maybe i should launch a political career. I used to work with mortgage back securities for Citigroup.
I also stayed at home with my kid for a few years. Actually I’m more qualified then Caroline since I’ve worked. Too bad I live in Jersey and don’t meet the residency requirement.
Essex: “Talk of the country breaking up and which states would fare best on their own is somewhat comical ”
It is just fun to talk about that, especially after those welfare state comments (from people you were supposed to support progressive taxation and transfer of wealth from rich to poor people). I think we can have bi-partisan consensus on this issue ie red state senators will support flat tax and we can finally end progressive taxation in federal level.
“Holiday Sales Drop to Force Bankruptcies, Closings”
http://tinyurl.com/76h3la
Retailers may close 73,000 stores in the first half of 2009, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.
I need to get rid of a non-working refrigirator, anybody know if there are ourfits that do this? My town does not handle the removal of appliances.
SAS,
“i think for that kind of jack, might as well buy a nice pad in manhattan, with nice views.
don’t you think?”
I agree. I’d rather live in Manhattan. But if the economy really tanks, it might be safer to live in Hoboken.
253 jamil,
Besides, the states most likely to request federal bailout from O are CA, NJ, MI, and NY. Any idea what might be the common factor here?
All of the states that you mentioned receive less in federal spending that taxes collected. NJ received $.61 cents for every dollar in federal taxes it pays. It’s the worst ratio in the country.
If the red states really hate the blue states so much, maybe they should stop taking their money. That will show those lousy blue states.
“December 29, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Someone trying to bail on their condo at the Hoboken W Hotel before they close.”
Considering Starwood’s debt is now rated as junk by S&P you’d be nuts to buy that place. Who knows who’s going to own the rest of the building below the condo floors in a year or two. Could end up going from an exlusive W Hotel residence to a Ramada:)
273…How do you figure? If things really tank….Hoboken will be a feeding ground for the thugs from neighboring towns within walking distance……
Well it WILL have an awesome view of NYC.
I heard that Gov. Corzine bought one of the 2 penthouses in the W.
Something odd about the Governor of New Jersey coveting the view of an entirely different state. Is New Jersey so bad to look at that he needs to live in a place that provides a view completely devoid of Jersey?
Maybe we should put him up in a condo overlooking Newark, Camden, or Paterson? You’d think the Governor would want to actually look at the state he governs, no?
#271 Found a palce in Paterson that picks them up for free, if anybody ever needs to do this.
“Corzine”
i thought he lived in Summit?
i was heavy on the bottle one night at a cocktail party in Summit..up on the hill…in one of them homes, Corzine was there, wanted to shake my hand with that chester cat grin, i told him to piss off & walked away.
Needless to say, about 5 minutes later I was asked to leave.
SAS
funny & true
“One Wise Man”
http://tinyurl.com/7kjew4
sas (241)-
I posted it a few days back. Came to me from a friend who works there.
opps, i gotta post stuck in moderation.
looks like there are still some east german trolling.
SAS
275 d2b: “All of the states that you mentioned receive less in federal spending that taxes collected. NJ received $.61 cents for every dollar in federal taxes it pays. It’s the worst ratio in the country.”
Flat tax would solve this problem for NJ. I thought the idea of having higher taxes for people who earn more is pretty uncontroversial. Then, the Government decides what to do with the money. I’m all for small government, state rights and flat tax so count me in here.
“BC Bob- We were going to open a futures account but they wanted $55.00 a month per exchange for data feeds.”
NJC,
If you are receiving live quotes you must pay exchange fees. If not, you should not be charged exchange fees. Any questions, send me an email.
“east german”
speaking of that.
if you ever get a chance, visit the wall & learn about it. heck of a story.
i talk trash alot about CIA, but one thing they did correctly was funnel money & equipment to people to make zig zag patterns in tunnels underground.
not too much support, didn’t want the russians to find out.
zig zag, this way if someone had to run for there lives, it would be hard for a solider to make a straight shot into someone’s back.
gotta tour after the fall.
SAS
(oh btw-that would be/was apart the “black economy”)
“Retailers may close 73,000 stores in the first half of 2009”
SAS,
SPG.
All Disclaimers.
283 Jamil – Flat tax would not solve NJ’s federal tax problem. All it would mean is that all of NJ’s residents would pay tax at the same percentage. It would do nothing to change NJ’s slice of the federal tax pie.
Regarding the red state/blue state divide and federal tax divide, I merely find it ironic that those states that take the most from the federal government tend to vote for lower taxes and small government.
Today while taking a fresh air break at lunch time, I discovered the the Times Square Children’s Place shut it’s doors immediately after Christmas. I wonder how many other stores they closed.
So much for my convenient birthday present shopping locale.
Whats up all. It has been a while since I have posted on here. Been busy with my new job and kids.
Its a very bleak looking economy, but there is an easy way to solve economic problems. This country thrived when there were tons of small businesses.
Its not that hard to figure out. Large companies like home depot put thousands of companies out of business over the past 10 years. And there mostly teenagers working there who are not familiar with those products. But companies like home depot lowered the prices and were able to cut staff. Now we are suffering from wanting to save a buck or 2. And even the big boys can’t cut it these days.
If we take away many large companies create smaller ones, stop outsourcing to outside countries and even outsourcing in this country and start taxing items/services that come into this country I think we maybe able to save the economy.
As an example, my father owned a wallpaper business for 20 years in Edison, NJ. At one point he over 8000 customers There were ups and downs. With a bad economy in the begining of the decade the company went down and when the company had to close at the end of 2002 he had around 3500 customers. About 85% had went out of business.
So large companies are good in some ways but bad in others. I hope people learn from this that without the little guy the big guy will eventually fall to its knees.
We need to look back at history and look when the country was doing well without being obsessed on housing. We need to direct our country in that direction.
Bailouts will help nothing, they will delay the inevitable.
And I am sorry if people disagree but if you are having problems affording your home because you spent more than you could afford, than you should lose your home. Some people need to learn the hard way. I also think we have a crisis in NJ with the deficit. Since NJ government cannot control itself why not give NJ money to clear its deficit and have people monitor NJ government to make sure they stop corruption. And be able to lower property taxes. Where is NJ bailout. The NJ deficit affect the entire state not a few people who spent more than the could afford.
Happy Holidays
IT COULD GET CONDé NASTY
WEB, DOMINO, DETAILS COULD BE ‘JANUARY SURPRISE’ VICTIMS
Condé Nast Chairman S.I. Newhouse Jr. is slated to return from his extended annual European vacation next week and already insiders are growing nervous ahead of his “January surprise.”
The reason: Newhouse has been poring over the books at the glitzy empire that clears well over $2 billion a year – and the findings aren’t pretty.
According to sources, the trouble spots are rumored to include Sarah Chubb’s CondéNet Web operation, which has already absorbed year-end cuts with the shutdown of flip.com and other staff cuts within the online unit.
“Digital accounts for only 3 percent of their total revenue,” said one knowledgeable executive. “They don’t make a penny on digital – and they never have.”
Struggling magazines such as Domino and Details are also expected to get hard looks in the new year. But with all Condé Nast magazines reeling these days, it’s gotten tougher to figure out exactly what Newhouse’s January surprise will be this time around.
What has made the guessing game complicated is that Newhouse is tough to read.
“You can’t apply standard business rules to Condé Nast because Si doesn’t run it for profit,” said a former Condé Nastie.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/12262008/business/it_could_get_cond__233__nasty_145978.htm
Njgator “It would do nothing to change NJ’s slice of the federal tax pie.”
Since the taxation is heavily progressive, it would help states that have a lot of high earners and their slice of the federal pie would be smaller.
Besides, this “federal spending for the state” is not always really for the state. NM has big and expensive nuclear waste site there but it does not benefit NM beyond some extra (500?) jobs. Army installations also are not for the state, but for the country. It is much more cost-efficient for federal govt to have large army bases in low cost areas where land and housing is cheap. If we move all army bases to NJ (e.g. use eminent domain and confiscate large areas in NJ) it would make NJ net recipient but increase the cost to everybody (NJ included).
where is reinvestor101 with his bulldozer? he could start a small buisness that may do well:)
“Dismal holiday sales weigh on mall owners”
http://tinyurl.com/8c9bxo
Economic vacancy now stands at about 13.5 percent and is expected to peak at 17.3 percent in the third quarter of 2009, “implying that one out of every six square feet needs to just go away,” Bret Wilkerson, chief executive of Property & Portfolio Research.
said.
NJGator says:
December 29, 2008 at 9:10 pm
Today while taking a fresh air break at lunch time, I discovered the the Times Square Children’s Place shut it’s doors immediately after Christmas. I wonder how many other stores they closed.
So much for my convenient birthday present shopping locale.
Gates: maybe they are prepping for New Year’s Eve…..I would treat it like an approaching Cat 5 hurricane…..
How many stores get closed in a normal year? How high above the average is the 73,000 figure?
Njgator “It would do nothing to change NJ’s slice of the federal tax pie.”
Since the taxation is heavily progressive, it would help states that have a lot of high earners.
Besides, this “federal spending for the state” is rarely only for the state. NM has big and expensive nuclear waste site there but it does not benefit NM beyond some extra (500?) jobs.
Army installations also are not for the state, but for the whole country. It is much more cost-efficient for the federal govt to have large army bases in low cost areas where land and housing is cheap. If we move all army bases to NJ (e.g. use eminent domain and confiscate large areas in NJ) it would make NJ net recipient but increase the cost to everybody (NJ included).
Would you like to move nuclear waste site and army bases to NJ, to compensate for the lack of federal spending?
Chifi – They are completely emptied out – not a thing left inside. And there was no pre-closing sale either. There’s a sign on the door telling you to visit their other location in the 60’s.
SAS,
you have written in a very coherent manner about the influence of US secret operations in other countries…
where, in your opinion, has the US been more vested? Chile, El Salvador, the former eastern block, russia?
HC
A Tale of Two Cities
As Manhattan has gone, Jersey City has followed. The sixth borough now faces a tough fight to attract clients who are suddenly cost-conscious.
http://www.njbiz.com/weekly_article.asp?aID=19803925.4948389.999661.1499249.7768911.556&aID2=76888
stu – when you said you shopped around to 10 diff mortgage companies looking for the house loan, how many actual applications did you put in?
i figure i could swallow two and just pick the best rate when the time comes … but i thought you said you went to 10 places.
did you mean 10 places ran your credit and you put in 10 applications?
In the ultimate game of chicken, US bets foreign creditors won’t allow its economy to collapse.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-S-P-CHINA-market-500/index/a/20456
“where, in your opinion, has the US been more vested? Chile, El Salvador, the former eastern block, russia?”
it depends on which budget/economy you are referring to?
bubble, real, or black.
each budget shuffles the deck of rankings.
i have experience in black economy, and suspect that is where your interst lies..
you then have to ask or break it down further? where does all the money laundering goto? or where does the drug money goto? you dig me…
for a generic black budget alocation $ transfer (and this is my opinion, because things get compartmentalized & fuzzy. i.e the left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing, so nobody really knows, and if some says they know..they are full of it).
I would rank like this:
1) Asia (singapore likes to lay low)
2) eastern block
3) Israel
4) middle east
5) Russia
6) Mexico
7) El Salvador
8) Chile
this is just a generic “everything in one bucket” list.
SAS
“The price of gold will begin its march toward $2,000.”
“Commercial real estate will be slammed.”
He [300],
Music to my ears.
also..
there are billions of dollars that get transferred, but nobody knows where.
i know some would argue wealth was transferred and dollars is the transferring agent.
but you get the drift.
SAS
we better change subjects.
SAS
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=84594
(link about swat team raid on food co-op)
i’m torn: the site has both ads for coulter’s book and think vaccines are evil. two black marks in my book.
yet it was forwarded to me by another member of my local csa (community supported agriculture)…
it may be the end times, when granola crunching lefties read and agree with the rightwing paranoids…
(not to say the leftwing doesn’t have its paranoids, btw)
In Housing Fall, Breaking Up Is Harder to Do
When Marci Needle and her husband began to contemplate divorce in June, they thought they had enough money to go their separate ways. They owned a million-dollar home near Atlanta and another in Jacksonville, Fla., as well as investment properties.
Now the market for both houses has crashed, and the couple are left arguing about whether the homes are worth what they owe on them, and whether there are any assets left to divide, Ms. Needle said.
“We’re really trying very hard to be amicable, but it puts a strain on us,” said Ms. Needle, the friction audible in her voice. “I want him to buy me out. It’s in everybody’s interest to settle quickly. That would be my only income. It’s been incredibly stressful.”
Chalk up another victim for the crashing real estate market: the easy divorce.
With nearly one in six homes worth less than the mortgage owed on it, according to Moody’s Economy.com, divorce lawyers and financial advisers around the country say the logistics of divorce have been turned around. “We used to fight about who gets to keep the house,” said Gary Nickelson, president of the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers. “Now we fight about who gets stuck with the dead cow.”
As a result, divorce has become more complicated and often more expensive, with lower prospects for money on the other side. Some divorce lawyers say that business has slowed or that clients are deciding to stay together because there are no assets left to help them start over.
“There’s an old joke,” said Randall M. Kessler, Ms. Needle’s lawyer. “Why is a divorce so expensive? Because it’s worth it. Now it better really be worth it.”
In a normal economy, couples typically build equity in their homes, then divide that equity in a divorce, either after selling the house or with one partner buying out the other’s share. But after the recent boom-and-bust cycle, more couples own houses that neither spouse can afford to maintain, and that they cannot sell for what they owe. For couples already under stress, the family home has become a toxic asset.
“It’s much harder to move on with their lives,” said Alton L. Abramowitz, a partner in the New York firm Mayerson Stutman Abramowitz Royer.
Mr. Abramowitz said he was in the middle of several cases where the value of the real estate could not be determined. “All of a sudden,” he said, “prices are all over the place, people aren’t closing, and it becomes virtually impossible to judge how far the market has fallen, because nothing is selling.”
For John and Laurel Goerke, in Santa Barbara, Calif., the housing market crashed in the middle of what Mr. Goerke said had been an orderly legal proceeding. At the height of the market, Mr. Goerke said, they had their house appraised at $2.3 million, which would have given them about $1 million to divide after paying off the mortgage. But by the time they sold last year, the value had fallen by $600,000, cutting their equity by more than half.
“That changed everything,” said Mr. Goerke, who is now nearly two years into the divorce process, with legal and other fees of several hundred thousand dollars. “The prospect of us both being able to buy modest homes was eliminated. The money’s not there.”
Now, with both spouses living in rental properties, their lawyers still cannot agree on what their remaining assets are worth. Their wealth is ticking away at $350 an hour, times two.
“It’s got to end,” Mr. Goerke said, “because at some point there’s nothing left to argue about.”
For other couples it does not have to end. Lisa Decker, a certified divorce financial analyst in Atlanta, said she was seeing couples who were determined to stay together even after divorce because they could not sell their home, a phenomenon rarely seen before outside Manhattan.
“We’re finding the husband on one floor, the wife on the other,” Ms. Decker said. “Now one is coming home with a new boyfriend or girlfriend, and it’s creating a layer to relationships that we haven’t seen before. Unfortunately, we’re seeing ‘The War of the Roses’ for real, not just in a Hollywood movie.”
In California, James Hennenhoefer, a divorce lawyer, said couples were taking advantage of the housing crisis to save money by stopping their mortgage payments but continuing to live together for as long as they can.
“Most of the lenders around here are in complete disarray,” Mr. Hennenhoefer said. “They’re not as aggressive about evictions. Everyone’s hanging around in properties hoping the government will buy all that bad paper and then they’ll negotiate a new deal with the government. They just live in different parts of the house and say, ‘We’ll stay here for as long as we can, and save our money, so we have the ability to move when and if the sheriff comes to toss us out.’ ”
Mr. Hennenhoefer said this tactic worked only with first mortgages; on second and third mortgages, the lenders pursue repayment even after the homeowners have lost the home.
Dee Dee Tomasko, a nursing student and mother in suburban Cleveland, expected to leave her marriage with about $200,000 in starter money, primarily from the marital home, which was appraised at about $1 million in 2006. By the time of her divorce last year, however, the house was appraised at $800,000; her share of the equity came to about $105,000.
Though she is relieved to be out of the marriage, if she had known how little money she would get “I might have stuck with it a little more; I don’t know,” Ms. Tomasko said, adding, “Maybe it would’ve made me think a little harder.”
For divorcing spouses with resources, though, there can be opportunities in the falling housing market.
Josh Kaufman and his wife bought a new 6,500-square-foot house outside Cleveland on five and a half acres, with four bedrooms and two three-car garages, that was worth $1.5 million at the height of the market. When they divorced in June, Mr. Kaufman knew his wife could not afford to carry the home. The longer the divorce process continued, the more the house depreciated; by the time he assumed the house, its appraised value was half what the couple had put into it; he did not pay her anything for her share.
“From a negotiating standpoint we knew that she couldn’t afford to stay in it,” Mr. Kaufman said. “It appeared as an opportunity to turn the negative situation around. There was no emotion involved. It was a business decision on what made most financial sense. It wasn’t an attempt to take advantage of someone.”
Still, his lawyer, Andrew A. Zashin, said, “He bought this house at a bargain basement price.”
For Nancy R., who spoke on condition of anonymity because her colleagues do not know her marital status, the impediments to divorce are visible every time she opens her door.
“There’s three other houses for sale on our same road,” she said. “There’s no way our house would sell.”
For now the couple are separated, waiting for real estate prices to recover. But for Ms. R., that means remaining financially dependent on her husband. He moved out; she remains in the house.
“I still feel kept in certain ways, and I don’t want to rock the boat,” she said. “And it’s draining. So suddenly, when there’s an economic crunch, we’re paying for two places. And we’re both eating out more, because it’s no fun to eat alone.”
The same dynamics that marked their marriage now hang over their separation, she said: “He has the ultimate control.”
“We can’t sell the house,” she said, “and whatever settlement I get depends on a good relationship with him, based on his good will. The lines get blurry and confused quickly, which makes emotions fly easily” — especially if she were to start dating.
“Any icing on the cake is going to come from his good will,” she said, “and that means being the peacemaker. I’m the underdog in this situation. We’re basically forced to remain in a relationship after we’ve decided to end it.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/30/us/30divorce.html?_r=1&hp=&adxnnlx=1230612223-FNiLG9nRlsNKf694Yl9c6A&pagewanted=print
292/NJGator-
But, his nephew Steve and Chuck Townsend do run it for profit. I think the web operations may be safer than this article projects.