NJ Home Price Tracker has been updated with S&P Case Shiller October HPI Data:
(click to enlarge)
Or in spreadsheet format for those who prefer:
For those looking for volume measurements, the most recent version of the “Sales vs. Inventory” and overall sales graphs for Northern NJ (GSMLS):
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
The chart suggests to me that NJ real estate is just in the second or third inning of falling. However it has already declined as much as it ever had in the time span displayed.
Those price drops are a mere flesh wound….
Very nice. Great deals on toys out there these days.
don’t worry:
omama will save us.
sheep say: omaaahhhma, oomaaahma, baaah!
your a day late & a dollar short.
SAS
AllianceBernstein CEO pays $37M for pad at 720 Park Avenue
Investment advisor Carl Spielvogel and his wife Barbaralee Diamonstein-Spielvogel sold their cooperative apartment at 720 Park Avenue, at the corner of 70th Street, for $36.63 million, nearly twice what they paid for it two years ago.
The sale of the seventh-floor unit closed December 18, according to property records posted Friday.
The buyer was identified as Jill Kraus, wife of Peter Kraus, a former executive vice president at Merrill Lynch who reportedly received a $25 million bonus after working at the firm for three months this year. However, only her name was listed on the property report. He was hired as chairman and CEO of AllianceBernstein on December 19. A Merrill Lynch spokeswoman would not comment on his pay package.
The sellers, who are top Democratic fundraisers, bought the apartment in June 2006 for $20 million, property records show. Earlier reports of the sale estimated the price tag at $37 million.
Just before buying the 7th-floor unit, the Spielvogels sold their 17th-floor apartment in the building for $18.7 million, in May 2006, records showed.
http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/alliancebernstein-ceo-pays-37m-for-pad-at-720-park-avenue
December 22, 2008, 5:39 pm
Merrill Lynch’s Peter Kraus Collects $25 Million, Then Resigns
Posted by Heidi N. Moore
Merrill Lynch’s John Thain may not be getting a bonus this year, but the former Goldman Sachs Group executives he hired are getting a fortune.
First there was former Goldman trading star Thomas Montag, who Thain and Merrill’s board agreed to pay as much as $50 million to join the Thundering Herd.
Now, former Goldmanite Peter Kraus is getting his $25 million bonus, according to people familiar with the situation, though he has been at Merrill only three months. Kraus left Merrill Friday, shortly after after his rich exit package was triggered by the Merrill sale. In a year when some bankers are being paid with junk, Kraus’s exit payment is a stunner that represents to about 0.1% of Bank of America’s $25 billion capital injection from the U.S. government.
Talk about your good timing. Kraus was hired in May–when Merrill Lynch was talking about expansion–but didn’t officially start until September, only a couple of days before Thain hurriedly sold the firm to Bank of America to avoid the bankruptcy-filing fate of rival Lehman Brothers Holdings. According to this Merrill release, Kraus’s responsibilities included “overseeing the firm’s business strategy and investments; global growth plans and opportunities, and corporate acquisitions. He will also lead initiatives to integrate the work of the corporate strategy and business development team with the efforts of the firm’s senior business leaders around the world to identify cross-platform synergies.” Still, it is unlikely he contributed too much to the sale just days on the job.
Merrill Lynch noted that Kraus isn’t an officer and his payments aren’t a matter of public record, and declined to comment further.
Although Kraus didn’t have to do very much–relatively–to get his contractually promised bonus, his next job should have a high enough degree of difficulty. He is taking over at fund manager AllianceBernstein, which is in the midst of the fight of its life after assets under management decreased 18% in the third quarter as investors pulled money out and investment returns fell. Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Spahr expects AllianceBernstein’s assets under management to fall as much as one-third this year.
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2008/12/22/merrill-lynchs-peter-kraus-collects-25-million-then-resigns/
Previous thread;
“BC speak for yourself, I have not borrowed cash. BTW just stating a fact, investors are sitting on a record amount of cash.”
John,
You are drinking. I wasn’t referring to you. Record household debt levels;
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMDEBT/97/Max
Looking again, I notice a couple of things.
1)Lower tier NJ real estate showed higher appreciation than upper tier homes. (The subprime effect?)
2)NJ real estate outpaced inflation from 98 through 2006, an 8 year span. It seems fair to expect about 8 years of appreciation at below the rate of inflation. The question is whether it comes via a few years of very sharp underperformance, or many years of milder underperformance. The government and the finance industry seems intent in trying to engineer the second option.
Little Christmas story:
Was over at a relative’s house hanging out. He and his brother are bigwigs for their companies, here is their assesment for their respective industries:
1. Basic Materials: Horrible, the worst he has ever seen.
2. Bulk Chemicals: Never seen it this bad, ever…..
Yep, I can see the Memorial Day recovery now. It’s just around the corner!
1)Lower tier NJ real estate showed higher appreciation than upper tier homes.
While the low-end showed the greatest appreciation during the boom, they are also showing the sharpest declines during the bust.
BC, that household debt graph is a stunner.
Looks like the fundamentals are sound, and home prices should move up in early 2009.
#9 AllHype: Yep,only 5 short months to full recovery. We can all sit on John’s deck drinking cold beers,and watch the mustard seeds sprout into a thousand trees or bushes, or whatever mustard seeds grow into.
3b:
My one relative is near retirement age and he is seriously sweating it out that he does not get canned as he has 1 kid at a very expensive college.
Hehe #274 from prior post
Free Market Capitalism?
No John means Free Mustard Capitalism. Free mustard for everybody.
S&P CS NY Commutable Low Tier is off approximately 14% from the peak set in October 2006, in contrast to the aggregate measure, which is only off 12%.
#13 allhype: Resession, what recession? (sarcasm off)
Breaking news, Fed releasing details on future MBS purchases.
From MarketWatch:
Fed to start buying mortgage-backed securities in January
Fed to buy MBS from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae
Fed to buy MBS by creating additional bank reserves
Fed MBS purchase program separate from Treasury program
From the Fed:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081230b.htm
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday announced that it expects to begin operations in early January under the previously announced program to purchase mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and that it has selected private investment managers to act as its agents in implementing the program.
Under the MBS purchase program, the Federal Reserve will purchase MBS backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae; the program is being established to support the mortgage and housing markets and to foster improved conditions in financial markets more generally.
BC Bob,
Nominal household debt should be viewed on the log scale, or as a ratio of income. Same message, better perspective.
I think this chart works better:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraph?&chart_type=line&graph_id=0&category_id=&recession_bars=On&width=630&height=378&bgcolor=%23B3CDE7&txtcolor=%23000000&preserve_ratio=true&&s_1=1&s%5B1%5D%5Bid%5D=CMDEBT&s%5B1%5D%5Btransformation%5D=pc1&s%5B1%5D%5Bscale%5D=Left&s%5B1%5D%5Brange%5D=Max&s%5B1%5D%5Bcosd%5D=1953-01-01&s%5B1%5D%5Bcoed%5D=2008-07-01&s%5B1%5D%5Bline_color%5D=%230000FF&s_2=1&s%5B2%5D%5Bid%5D=FODSP&s%5B2%5D%5Btransformation%5D=lin&s%5B2%5D%5Bscale%5D=Left&s%5B2%5D%5Brange%5D=Max&s%5B2%5D%5Bcosd%5D=1980-01-01&s%5B2%5D%5Bcoed%5D=2008-07-01&s%5B2%5D%5Bline_color%5D=%23FF0000&s_3=1&s%5B3%5D%5Bid%5D=TDSP#
Breaking news, Fed releasing details on future MBS purchases.
I want my 1% fixed interest rate 30 year loan by March!!!!
May be I get one for New year???
BCB,
Doesn’t look nearly so scary semilog.
grim (19):
Great, so they took garbage from the left pocket and placed it in the right one.
So how does this help? Will it make people buy houses?
Nothing has worked previously and this will not work either.
Under the MBS purchase program, the Federal Reserve will purchase MBS backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae; the program is being established to support the mortgage and housing markets and to foster improved conditions in financial markets more generally.
Wouldn’t it take all responsibility from Fannie/Freddie and allow them to make bad loans with no risk for them??
Hence – I WANT MY 1% LOAN D@MN IT!!! AND I WANT IT NOW!!!
RE 25.25 – ARE YOU WITH ME????
I would even buy your house!!! (well may be)
Post above was a response to #23
All Hype says:
December 30, 2008 at 4:42 pm
grim (19):
Great, so they took garbage from the left pocket and placed it in the right one.
So how does this help? Will it make people buy houses?
Nothing has worked previously and this will not work either.
Boy, you just have to grin while reading the Fed’s news release.
The investment managers are BlackRock Inc., Goldman Sachs Asset Management, PIMCO and Wellington Management Company, LLP.
Who saw that coming?
Does the agency MBS program expose the Federal Reserve to increased risk of losses?
Assets purchased under this program are fully guaranteed as to principal and interest by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae, so the Federal Reserve’s exposure to the credit risk of the underlying mortgages is minimal.
No risk at all then.
How will purchases under the agency MBS program be financed?
Purchases will be financed through the creation of additional bank reserves.
The power of the press.
Damn, buggered the link.
Boy, you just have to grin while reading the Fed’s news release.
The investment managers are BlackRock Inc., Goldman Sachs Asset Management, PIMCO and Wellington Management Company, LLP.
Who saw that coming?
Does the agency MBS program expose the Federal Reserve to increased risk of losses?
Assets purchased under this program are fully guaranteed as to principal and interest by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae, so the Federal Reserve’s exposure to the credit risk of the underlying mortgages is minimal.
No risk at all then.
How will purchases under the agency MBS program be financed?
Purchases will be financed through the creation of additional bank reserves.
The power of the press.
“creating additional bank reserves”
How exactly do they create additional bank reserves?
re: #28
Helicopter Drop
HEHEHE says:
December 30, 2008 at 4:48 pm
“creating additional bank reserves”
How exactly do they create additional bank reserves?
It ios very easy – there is a little window in Federal reserve banking software – it says “Create Money” – you just type desired money in there – very ECOLOGICALLY Friendly Process – Very Green! No actual printing involved SO no cotton used and cotton processing chemicals are saved as well.
The investment managers are BlackRock Inc., Goldman Sachs Asset Management, PIMCO and Wellington Management Company, LLP.
My New Year’s Resolution: to get MBA in Finance and get a job at one of thouse companies. If you can’t beat them – join them…
“#9 AllHype: Yep,only 5 short months to full recovery. We can all sit on John’s deck drinking cold beers,and watch the mustard seeds sprout into a thousand trees or bushes, or whatever mustard seeds grow into.”
3b,
Better chance of John being pinned between 2 trees, off the LIE, next to Billy Joel, on Mem Day Weekend, than a recovery by then.
Ok so if they buy up all the new mortgages with money they create out of thin air what does that do?
Or am I asking too many questions?
The Union Rat makes an appearance outside of Schweppe Burgdorff ERA in Montclair:
Realtors at Schweppe Burgdorff want readers to know that the protests today and yesterday in front of their office have nothing to do with their activities helping customers buy and sell properties. Here’s an official statement sent to us by Schweppe Burgdorff’s Dan Peoples.
On Monday and Tuesday of this week, protestors have been handing out leaflets in front of the Schweppe Burgdorff ERA Realtor offices in Montclair. They allege that buildings Jay Schweppe is developing at other locations are using “substandard” companies to perform asbestos remediation at these sites.
Schweppe Burgdorff ERA Realtor is a business involved in residential real estate brokerage and is not involved in any way with the real estate development activities of Jay Schweppe or his companies. In addition, Schweppe Burgdorff ERA has no connection to any asbestos remediation companies that have been hired by Mr. Schweppe or his companies. Statements that have been made that “Schweppe Burgdorff hires asbestos contacting companies” are false.
Dan Peoples for Schweppe Burgdorff ERA
We’ll stay here every day with the coffin, until this is resolved,” Local 78’s representative Frank Ortega said this morning, as he stood with Elvis Pilaloa dressed in a hazmat suit, in front of Schweppe Burgdorff Realty in Montclair. “We’ve been doing this [kind of public protest] for years, in New York City and New Jersey,” says Ortega, “and with positive results.” Resolution means – first and foremost – the asbestos contracting companies [that Schweppe Burgdorff hires CORRECTION: that Jay Schweppe hires] must pay their workers health benefits, he told Baristanet. Yesterday, at the same location, there was a giant rat sighting.
When I arrived, a man, whom Ortega identified as a local asbestos remediator, was “trying to intimidate them” threatening a lawsuit, and telling them they should get a real job. Overheard when leaving, he said “you should be ashamed of yourselves.”
http://www.baristanet.com/2008/12/schweppe_burgdorff_responds.php
#30 – I heard the Fed hired Barbara Eden to cross her arms and blink, everything they do is expensive lots of Fees to be generated in this deal.
1)Lower tier NJ real estate showed higher appreciation than upper tier homes. (The subprime effect?)
I think a big driver though may be the fact that as prices rose, but incomes remained stagnant, buyers were increasingly priced-out of more expensive homes.
Eventually, the POS starter cape or prefab suburban condo became the only form of housing that even approached affordability for the vast majority of first time buyers. Whereas in a normal market, first time buyers would “buy in” at level that fit their income, down payment ability (and family help) across a wider spectrum of the housing market, during the peak 2005 market, the majority of first time buyers were fighting it out over start capes, putting a lot of pressure on the lower segment of the market.
“The US taxpayer is now in the business of making subprime car loans.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/GE-Fed-gm-F-subprime-GMAC/index/a/20475
re: #37 GOSBANK has been awfully busy lately wonder if they are worried about Jan 20th?
You guys hate a recovery, even December auto sales are up!!
Why the fed is now buyinge gse debt? They ran out of suckers?
Foreign Central Banks Pare Agency Debt
Uncertainty May Cloud Fannie, Freddie Note Sales in First Week of New Year
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123056131108839343.html?mod=testMod
Guys, I need some guidance concerning the OTHER NJ hell hole, small group/individual health insurance.
is there any form of major medical/MSA accounts in NJ? My previous research on the matter came up with a negative.
I’m looking at 11,000 premiums for my family with a 5,000 deductible and loads of flimsy coverage.
Any suggestions?
All,
It’s the end of the year and time for me to post my usual fish-wife nagging about your health.
1) Get your annual physical. Just do it.
2) If you have any family relative with colon cancer or polyps you must get your screening colonoscopy before your 50th birthday. Preferably yesterday.
3) If you have a family history of early bre@st or ovarian cancer, it would help to be tested for BRCA gene. Again, just do it.
This is in addition to routine mammograms for women over 40 or earlier if you have family members with breast cancer.
4) Women, get your Pap smears done.
5) Men, prostate exams.
6) Skin mapping by a dermatologist especially if you are fair skinned folks. But remember, black folks can get skin cancer too. Especially melanomas – so check palms, soles and all nailbeds for dark spots that suddenly appear.
7) Talk to your doctor about whether an aspirin a day [regular or baby] would be beneficial to you.
8) Inform your doctor of all the vitamins and supplements you are taking.
9) Go through your medicine cabinet and toss all the out-of-date shit that’s there.
10) Items to keep on hand: Chewable baby aspirin [for heart attacks primarily,] acetaminophen [Tylenol] and ibuprofen [Motrin, Advil] for fevers, Clean 4 by 4 gauze bandages, at least one ace wrap, antibiotic ointment, and bulky gauze bandages.
11) Learn CPR.
12) Fill out an index card with your current meds, general medical history and allergies with the name/numbers of your current physicians.
13) Fill out an advance directive and have a medical proxy designated. (forms available on line or at your local hospital.)
There are other things but right now I gotta go cook dinner….
sl
Stu says:
December 30, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Whole autism/vaccine thing is unfounded and was contrived by a group of greedy lawyers representing autistic children. Zero evidence to back it up. Same about living near powerlines.
Stu: you sound like Tom Cruise…no joke…
43, chi.
He’s right.
sl
41 Barbara. Oy. I was just still typing as you posted.
sl
All Hype says:
December 30, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Little Christmas story:
Was over at a relative’s house hanging out. He and his brother are bigwigs for their companies, here is their assesment for their respective industries:
1. Basic Materials: Horrible, the worst he has ever seen.
2. Bulk Chemicals: Never seen it this bad, ever…..
Yep, I can see the Memorial Day recovery now. It’s just around the corner!
Hype: What is your definition of recovery? or what is critical to you in your situation?
still_looking says:
December 30, 2008 at 5:50 pm
43, chi. He’s right. sl
sl: You are in the medical field, so I will not openly challenge your opinion. The bulk of my knowledge is second hand from my wife’s extensive research. However, there appears to be a significant link between vaccinations, immune system responses, metals, autism, and development of allergies. The main reason that there is zero evidence is due to lobbying pressure and lack of self-funded research by the manufacturers. Even with the removal of thimerisal. There is a significant amount of benefit that can be argued takes place with the complete avoidance of immunizations until age 3.
This issue is not important to every child. IF you have a child that could be affected, THEN it is really something to consider.
still_looking says:
5) Men, prostate exams.
still: I asked my wife, but she always refuses….
Barbara says:
December 30, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Guys, I need some guidance concerning the OTHER NJ hell hole, small group/individual health insurance.
is there any form of major medical/MSA accounts in NJ? My previous research on the matter came up with a negative.
I’m looking at 11,000 premiums for my family with a 5,000 deductible and loads of flimsy coverage.
Any suggestions?
Barbara: If all options are on the table, you may some benefit from using an HDHP/HSA…..just a thought….
chicagofinance says:
December 30, 2008 at 6:06 pm
still_looking says:
December 30, 2008 at 5:50 pm
43, chi. He’s right. sl
This issue is not important to every child. IF you have a child that could be affected, THEN it is really something to consider.
still: Before you whack me 50 times in the head with a tire iron (as you should), many of the immunizations are for diseases that are eradicated in the U.S. Skip shots in India? No way.
I think if you are careful with your (potentially sensitive) children and avoid daycare, you have a chance to think things over with sufficient research and medical professional consulting.
The problem with Medical Physicals is they rely heavily on Lab Reports telling the doctor what is Normal. An example would be the TSH test for Thyroid which still uses the old range of .45-4.5. Research on this topic shows that in the 2001-2003 timeframe the AACC was recommending 2.5 as the upper limit and the AACE was recommending 3.0 as the upper limit, not 4.5. So here is a case where most Labs and doctors will say ” Normal” using outdated incorrect information. Regarding Breast Cancer, a significant drop in Estrogen related Breast Cancer occurred when women stopped taking Doctor prescribed Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT). Cholesterol changes it’s criteria annualy. Now if Cholesterol levels are Normal, they recommend a CRP Inflammation Test and put you on Statins anyway. Of course the American Dental Association disagrees and says it’s probably Gingivitis and 20 mg of Doxycycline will alleviate the CRP reading. Like the Old Saw, “My Father only saw a doctor twice in his life, the second time they killed him”.
A former Beverly Hills doctor stands accused of using the fat he liposuctioned out of patients to fuel his car, according to Fox News.
The doctor’s former patients have filed a lawsuit making this accusation, according to documents found by Forbes.com.
California state health officials have launched an investigation into these claims, as powering a car with human medical waste is illegal.
I wonder if you did this in NY would you be subject to the new Patterson Fat Tax?
chi – backing still and stu on this. There is TONS of research on vaccines and autism and NOTHING to show that there is any connection.
No offense to your wife, but the net is overloaded with misinformation and conspiracy theories that especially hit a nerve with concerned parents. The term “anecdata” was made for this stuff.
In addition, the immunizations in the US are not for the most part for eradicated diseases, rather ones that don’t crop up because people are immunized. Diseases such as whooping cough are on the rise because people stopped fearing it and avoid immunizations.
And so what if kids in daycare get sick early on (and mine weren’t even in daycare)? The immune system NEEDS something to sink its teeth into. Far worse to go overboard with sanitizers than to come in contact with a few germs.
All disclosures – not a clinician like Still, just degreed in Biomedical Sciences. Am I an expert? No. But trained enough to spot BS on line.
re: #52 was Tyler Durden involved?
chicagofinance (46): I work in Pharma and am losing my job at the end of February. So for me a recovery will be when I get a new job, which should not be that difficult.
For the general economy, I believe that the recovery will take place when housing stabilizes and I have no idea when that will occur.
chi,
read 53 (lisoosh)
she is right.
Q: When’s the last time you saw a kid die of meningitis from an organism that we have vaccination for?
[ooh, me! pick me! pick me!! ooh me,me,me]
A: About a year ago. Dead. at 15 mos. Not immunized.
What lisoosh is describing is “Herd immunity” As many people are immunized for it, you are less like to contract it.
Stop immunizations and increase the possibility of exposure.
Please, really – the immunization/autism connection I thought I posted enough data on that a year or so ago…. — stop spreading the nonsense.
as for the rectal exam….um. I kinda meant that your doctor/urologist should be doing it.
As for prostate massage?? I ain’t EVEN goin’ there!
eesh. bleach, eye bleach, quick! hurry!!
sl
All Hype,
Happy Holidays, and New Year, little brother!
sl
Great Coupon for the new year:
http://tinyurl.com/6taeod
still_looking:
Happy holidays to you my good friend!
Sorry to be such a party pooper on the vaccine thang, but I read an article by a homeopathic doctor that explained the whole manufactured rumor about the connection. Now the connection between heavy metals and the nervous system may have some validity as we are all electric, so I give ChiFi’s wife some credit there.
A doctor insisted I get the Shingles Vaccination even though I had previously had Shingles. I told him I would think about it, and went online to the FDA/Merk Shingles Vaccine Approval Document. Question .10 of the FDA Q&A document said; Shingles Vaccine is not recommended for people who have had Shingles because 1. None of the Merk Control Group included these people, so side effects are unknown and 2. It is unlikely they would contract it again. When the doctor insisted again that I get the shot, I gave him the FDA letter and he suggested, I find a different doctor. Caveat Emptor.
#31 Al; They ain’t hiring still laying off,with more to come.
“Why the fed is now buyinge gse debt? They ran out of suckers?”
He,
Exactly.
The rest of the world knows it’s a pos. Better to let the world’s largest hedge fund step to the plate and lever up.
From the NY Times:
A Renter’s Market for Manhattan Offices
Even to industry veterans who have lived through other downturns, the precipitous decline in the Manhattan office market, especially in Midtown, has been startling.
“We have fallen further faster than any time in the last 20 years,” said Mitchell S. Steir, chief executive of Studley, a national brokerage firm that represents tenants. “There has been more damage to real estate values in the last four months than in any other four-month period. The pace with which it has occurred has been astonishing.”
According to Studley, asking rents in Manhattan over all declined 4.4 percent from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, with the decrease in Midtown even more pronounced, 8.3 percent, the steepest since 2001.
But brokers say that actual rents have fallen much further than the data suggests. Studley said that the asking rents for 40 percent of the spaces included in its research are listed as “negotiable.”
“No one knows what the rents are, because there has been very little activity for the past three months,” said Ruth Colp-Haber, a partner at Wharton Property Advisors, which represents small to medium-size tenants. “No one is paying attention to the asking rents.”
“We have fallen further faster than any time in the last 20 years,” said Mitchell S. Steir, chief executive of Studley, a national brokerage firm that represents tenants. “There has been more damage to real estate values in the last four months than in any other four-month period. The pace with which it has occurred has been astonishing.”
Not to worry, they are are just standing in line, 2 blocks long, at A&F, redistributing wealth.
“Whole autism/vaccine thing is unfounded and was contrived by a group of greedy lawyers representing autistic children. Zero evidence to back it up”
correlation is there.
causation is not.
I was in the military, i ain’t taken no inject.
SV40, HIV in the factor 8.
not me baby, each is own.
SAS
Grim,
Thank you very much for the effort you put into this blog.
It is necessary to point out that you are guilty of selection bias in the top chart. In this chart, 4 S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices are shown. These indices happen to show the most negative results of the indices you purport to track. However, the S&P/Case-Shiller condo index for the New York area continues to be censored for an unacceptable reason: the result deviates from the consensus of the group of regular njrereport posters. Obviously this data is relevant to your readers as many of them live presently or have lived in areas of New Jersey , such as Hudson County , where condos are prevalent.
It is likewise necessary to mention that the New York area condo market is the top performer of the 25 markets (20 house markets + 5 condo markets) tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices. This is true if one measures the latest monthly change or the change from the peak price level. Surely an analyst of your caliber is aware of these facts.
I am very curious to receive opinions of other posters regarding the price performance of New York area condos. The S&P/Case-Shiller data show that timing cannot explain this outperformance as New York area condo prices peaked at a similar time as other housing markets, despite inaccurate suggestions that “the bubble popped here last” and home prices in the New York area were the “last to fall.” (3b, December 30, 2008 at 9:48am).
Thank you again for the effort you put into this blog.
% change, October 2008 compared to September 2008
New York condo -0.5%
New York house -0.9%
Cleveland house -1.0%
Boston house -1.1%
Dallas house -1.1%
Boston condo -1.3%
Seattle house -1.4%
Chicago condo -1.4%
Denver house -1.5%
Chicago house -1.6%
Charlotte house -1.8%
Portland house -1.9%
Los Angeles condo -1.9%
Atlanta house -2.4%
Los Angeles house -2.6%
Washington house -2.7%
Las Vegas house -2.7%
Miami house -3.0%
San Diego house -3.0%
San Francisco condo -3.1%
Phoenix house -3.3%
Tampa house -3.4%
Minneapolis house -3.4%
San Francisco house -4.2%
Detroit house -4.5%
% change, October 2008 compared peak price level; month of peak price level
New York condo -4% Feb-06
Dallas house -5% Jun-07
Charlotte house -6% Aug-07
Chicago condo -6% Oct-06
Denver house -8% Aug-06
Boston condo -10% Oct-05
Portland house -11% Jun-07
Seattle house -11% Jul-07
Cleveland house -12% Jul-06
New York house -12% Jun-06
Atlanta house -12% Jul-07
Boston house -13% Oct-05
Chicago house -14% Aug-06
San Francisco condo -20% Oct-05
Minneapolis house -21% Sep-06
Washington house -26% May-06
Los Angeles condo -27% Jul-06
Tampa house -31% Jul-06
Detroit house -32% Dec-05
Los Angeles house -34% Sep-06
San Francisco house -36% May-06
San Diego house -36% Nov-05
Miami house -38% Dec-06
Las Vegas house -39% Aug-06
Phoenix house -41% Jun-06
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CS_CondoIndices_123062.xls
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_History_123062.xls
“Almost one in 10 Floridians are on food stamps”
http://tinyurl.com/6uk8ma
Chi Stu, SL, lisooh etc
I take the point on annecdata and would say that right or wrong, the argument of vaccines and Autism within the medical community is split down the middle. I think both sides have a bit of right and a lot of wrong. I myself suspect a viral component, but I am a mere lay person.
The current CDC schedule has each child getting 26 vaccines by their second birthday. For me personally that is way too many. When I grew up you got tetanus when you had a cut and polio on a sugar cube if there was an outbreak.
Part of the reason for the number (annecdata) of repeat vaccines is that, if you have a child that is IgA or Iron deficient, the absorption of the vaccine by the body can be blocked so the CDC’s answer is to repeat the vaccine multiple times to get the body to absorb enough to cover. I think asking a childs body to ingest a cocktail of compounds month after month must put a strain on it.
The Big 800lb gorrilla for me is that if vaccines are so safe, why is there a need for the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program
http://www.hrsa.gov/vaccinecompensation/VIC_Trust_Fund.htm
I also think that if we vaccinate everyone, we may end up with ineffective vaccines and mutating strains. We already have antibiotics that have lost their effectiveness and flu shots that are based on a calculation of what strains are likely to show up that year.
grim – in mod on #67…post has some info on condos
flu vaccination, total scam.
HPV vaccination, total scam.
SAS
68 in mod for vaccines
sas, florida ain’t nothin compared to the wonderfully productive humans existing in the beautiful state of west virginia – 1 in 6 on the food dole and most of them are disgustingly obese
http://www.dailymail.com/News/statenews/200803260077
“One in 6 West Virginians is on food stamps”
what the?
what the heck is going on?
SAS
and some you blokes out there laugh when i say food = money & that I have a little storage.
those 2 stories should wake you up a little.
or get a firearm.
SAS
flu vaccination, total scam.
HPV vaccination, total scam.
SAS
Please explain.
sl
excited for inspection tomorrow. if all goes well, within the next three weeks, we’ll be in a house, and out cash reserves will be depleted by 75%. not thrilled about that, but we’ll definitely still have the six months of living expenses should both of us lose our jobs.
too late to get in my 2009 predictions? I’ll bookmark it in case i need to brag or laugh about it:
* Gold will top out at 1500 an oz
* Dow will move between 6500-10000
* paulson is indicted on … something (late in the year)
we pass on the pool and instead opt to save $$ :(
well, on a positive note.
how long can the euros prop it up?
“NYC tourists spend record $30 billion in 2008: Mayor”
http://tinyurl.com/7x9l9z
“the cost of food is expected to jump by up to 4 percent this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service.
Food costs have been increasing by at least 2.4 percent each year since 2004”
SAS
You’re thinking too small, John. thinking only NY. you think people have cash in Cali? Fla? Nevada? That’s where the sh*t is really going to hit the fan, and there’s DEFINITELY way more people hurting out there than people flush with cash on the sidelines.
you need to look big picture, man. stop thinking just about NYC …
a friend of mine emailed this to me today:
“I am writing in response to a large number of emails that I have received about a video that has appeared on You Tube with me asking Ponzi schemer Bernie Madoff a question about future stock market crashes. This took place at a panel hosted by the non-profit Philoctetes Center (now going under because they had most of their money with Madoff) in the fall of 2007. It was the height of the Asian stock market blowoff. The forum leader, Justin Fox from Time magazine, deflected the question away from Madoff, so he never answered (just a small example of how the media protected Madoff perhaps). More details can be found in ‘The Helicopter Economics Investing Guide’ blog entry for December 28th, which contains the link to the video. See: http://nyinvestingmeetup.blogspot.com.
The New York Investing meetup has been saying for some time now that there is corruption at the highest levels of the market. Bernie Madoff is a former chair of the Nasdaq Stock Market and around 20% of Nasdaq trades run through his company. While he has admitted to operating what appears to be the biggest financial fraud in U.S. history (Enron is the competition for the number one spot), he could not have done so without a great deal of cooperation, if not out and out complicity from many other parties, both inside and outside the government. I am sure we will be hearing a lot more about this in the future”
SAS
it is comments like these – from a valued member of this board who was posting this stuff two years ago, and helped me sell my flip in time to escape with a massive return – that make me leery of buying next month.
even though we’re buying (we think, based on comps) low, and with a great rate.
remember:
when it comes to Madoff, everything you’ve heard & will hear…you’ve heard from me…on this blog…first…
still think I am just some bloke on the web blowing smoke up your skirt?
you don’t think i’m being watched?
SAS
#64 grim: Where is pret???
CNNMoney:
Chinese workers leaving cities in droves
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/30/news/international/china_migration.reut/index.htm
“The government, always concerned about social instability, is now on high alert, fearful of the consequences of a huge mass of jobless, disappointed, rootless young men.
Beijing has urged firms to avoid cutting jobs despite falling profits, and many bosses have obliged by retaining workers but giving them unpaid leave.
“Sales were really bad and the boss just kept giving us holidays. We had 15 days off last month,” said Tan Jun, who also clambered off train K192 in Chengdu. “Next year I won’t go back.”
“Bernie Madoff on the modern stock market”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auSfaavHDXQ
i was there that night, and I got whiff back then.
“There is too much cash on the sidelines.”
Yeah, we have been hearing about that pant up demand for years.
Yikes [80],
You’re fine. I was talking about delusional buyers. Just ask everyone to bring some nuggets, to your house, for a house warming party.
“still think I am just some bloke on the web blowing smoke up your skirt?”
sas,
I hope you’re not blowing smoke up my #ss; dow/gold, 1-1. I thought I was agressive 2-1. If it goes 1-1, you can fire Juanita, I’ll work for free.
BC Bob,
a little joke of ours:
“if you remember the 70s…you weren’t there”.
lol
love that one,
SAS
72/SAS-
That has been true since the food stamp program went into effect. What’s the point?
Re: Vaccines. I’ll go with what Grandma always said. After nursing a kid through whooping cough she said you’d have to be a d@mn fool not to get your kids vaccinated.
90/Outofstater-
Interesting side note on Whooping Cough.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leila_Denmark
She was my pediatrician.
#61 Confused.
Shingles was my last straw with US vaccination policy.
The boy was due to get the Chicken px vaccine. Before he could be given the injection as it is a live virus, all primary care givers had to be cleared to ensure they had either had the infection or were vaccinated. I knew I had never had it, but did not know if I had ever had the vaccine. So I had to have blood-work to check the level of antibodies. As my insurance does not cover labs, $150 later I found out I had some small amount of antibodies, but not enough to consider me covered. So I had to get the vaccine at the same time as the boy. The vaccine comes in two shots so I had to pony up another $120 for the first shot as my plan said, if you don’t have it, you don’t need it. Well then I took a reaction to the vaccine and ended up with a case of shingles anyway. I didn’t bother going back for the 2nd shot. After $270 and a lot of pain and discomfort, I called it quits.
At that point I started researching vaccines and what I discovered horrified me.
I will put one thought out there. Is it in the drug companies interest to fund a study that would come to the conclusion that there was a link between vaccines and spectrum or other disorders. We already saw the drug companies attitude to the flu vaccine shortage a few years back. Unless the government funds the programs, there is not financial case for them to produce flu vaccine. And unless the government fund new research on new antibiotics, the drug companies will not do it on their own.
“Those price drops are a mere flesh wound….”
Somewhere I expect to soon see some RE agents lying on the ground yelling, “Come back here. I will bite your kneecaps.”
sl & l: To be clear, I am not discussing research online, but rather two different professionals who directed my wife to other published research sources or books.
I am not stating that you can take an otherwise healthy child, inject them, and turn them autistic. However, if we are dealing in shades of gray, I am suggesting that a vaccine can place undure pressure onto a system that is potentially vulnerable.
still: there is a person down in Monmouth county who is on a crusade against Trenton about this stuff. I would be curious if she passes your bull-shito-meter…..we get untold heaps of spam from her….
“Now the connection between heavy metals and the nervous system may have some validity as we are all electric”
I know the heavy metal I immersed myself in during my youth certainly affected my nervous system.
doh!
WSJ
REAL ESTATE DECEMBER 31, 2008 New York, Boston Prices Expected to Fall Further By JUSTIN LAHART and CONOR DOUGHERTY
Although New York has been at the epicenter of the financial crisis, housing prices in the city haven’t dropped nearly as fast as cities elsewhere. The same is true of the financial hubs of Boston and Charlotte, N.C.
But that doesn’t mean these cities are skirting the worst of the housing bust. Rather, markets where price declines have been slightest may be in worse shape, because prices still have further to fall before enough buyers step in to bring housing activity to normal. Meanwhile, heavy foreclosure activity in hard-hit areas like Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Diego are bringing prices into equilibrium. Those cities may be closer to a turnaround.
In October, single-family-home prices in the New York metropolitan area were down 12% from the all-time high they reached in 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes. That is roughly half the decline registered by the 20-city index and well short of Phoenix’s 41% drop. A separate index of New York-area condo prices was down just 4% from its peak.
Part of the reason New York housing prices have held up is that lot of New Yorkers are holding on to their homes rather than selling for less than the Joneses got last year. Esty Lobovits, a 31-year-old lawyer in Manhattan, has been looking to buy an apartment since the summer but says she isn’t willing to pay what she considers to be inflated prices. Many apartments she has viewed are empty or filled only with staged furniture, and brokers are more aggressive, sometimes following up with her broker even if Ms. Lobovits hasn’t placed a bid.
Although sellers have been open to negotiation, Ms. Lobovits says prices haven’t budged as much as she would expect. About two months ago she looked at a one-bedroom, first-floor apartment for about $700,000, roughly $100,000 more than comparable apartments. “I haven’t seen any steep lowering of prices,” she says. “It’s a little surprising to me that [sellers] wouldn’t want to be more aggressive.”
In the language of Wall Street, with asking prices not dropping to levels where bidders like Ms. Lobovits will pick them, the market isn’t “clearing.” The Federal Reserve Bank of New York noted in its “beige book” survey of regional conditions this month that many would-be buyers have opted to rent out their apartments rather than sell, driving rental prices lower — particularly in higher-end buildings.
While New York is probably an extreme example, its inertia is being repeated in many of the other housing markets that have yet to see sharp declines. Some owners with hefty mortgages can’t face selling their house for less than they owe, but also, many don’t want to sell at a steep discount to what a house down the street might have fetched two years ago.
But in California, housing sales have picked up considerably, as buyers take advantage of foreclosed homes. In October, sales of existing, detached homes was more than double the year-earlier level, according to the California Association of Realtors. In the Los Angeles area, single-family-home prices are 34% below their peak, according to S&P/Case-Shiller, while prices in San Francisco and San Diego are down 36%.
“The homes that offer the most for the least are the ones the buyers buy,” says Matt Battiata, of Battiata Real Estate Group in Carlsbad, Calif. But as activity has picked up it has led to a decrease in prices — the opposite from during the boom. “Every sale is lower than the one before it,” Mr. Battiata says.
“There are parts of California where, if anything, prices may be starting to bottom out a little bit,” says Columbia Business School economist Christopher Mayer. “One of the things the wave of foreclosures has done is it forced the market to clear.”
New York’s slower adjustment is a more typical housing-market decline, with a deteriorating economy grinding down values over time. The last time prices in the area fell, starting in 1988, it took three years before they hit their trough, at 15% lower.
This time, the price decline may be far more severe. While subprime mortgages didn’t play as big a direct role in the New York real-estate market as elsewhere, there were plenty of Wall Streeters who made their living off of packaging those loans into the complex securities and trading them. Even last year, with the housing market fraying, Wall Street pulled in record bonuses.
“Right now, people are still living on last year’s bonus,” says Barclays Capital economist Ethan Harris, who is based in New York. “You can sort of feel the local economy on the edge of a cliff.”
94 chifi,
Let’s be clear. There are studies and there are studies. Having been through enough courses of Evidence-Based Medicine one can evaluate a useful “robust” study from garbage.
Anyone can quote a study. Separating wheat from chaff is another story.
A person with preconceived bias can easily direct the naive to studies that reinforce their beliefs.
I don’t agree with you on “vaccine can place undue pressure onto a system…”
There are stronger more robust data to suggest the spectrum of autism disorders are genetic.
I posted some of these studies probably a year ago or so on this site.
FWIW, Do as you wish. As a mom, I immunized my child readily and would do so again.
sl
PGC 92
If you got “shingles” – then you already were exposed to the varicella zoster virus that causes chicken pox.
An initial exposure to it causes chicken pox, not shingles. Its subsequent reactivation causes shingles.
It is reactivated under times of decreased immunity: stress, pregnancy, debilitated states, malnutrition, during chemotherapy or need for immune suppressing drugs.
FWIW, your shingles episode from the vaccine probably boosted your immunity to it to help protect you for another 10 -15 yrs from shingles.
I’m sorry this has soured you on vaccines.
sl
RE: Immunizations
One approach is to not give the kid 3-4 shots at the same office visit, as doctors tend to do.
Space each vaccine out, one vaccine per office visit, one month apart.
It not only is less invasive to the kid (no fevers, etc), but if there’s a problem, at least you know which vaccine caused it.
There is clearly a marked increase in autism occurrence in the last 30 years, correlating with an increase in immunizations. Causation? Perhaps. You gamble with your kids, not mine.
SAS 69
Seen someone die from cervical cancer?
or someone who had to be treated for cervical dysplasia from HPV?
Been there, done that.
HPV vaccine is not a scam.
Had my child been a girl, she would be getting her HPV vaccine as fast as I could arrange it.
sl
There is clearly a marked increase in autism occurrence in the last 30 years, correlating with an increase in immunizations. Causation? Perhaps. You gamble with your kids, not mine.
Occurence? Or do you mean diagnosis?
More likely is that the autism spectrum disorders have been prevalent all along and only with education and awareness, have now been diagnosed.
sl
chi – thanks at least for posting something that brought me out of my inertia and caused me to write something. Haven’t had that spark in a while digging through a plethora of conspiracy stories. Plus, now, I work.
I’ll bow to sl in this debate, she is the clinician and is far more up to date than me. One point I feel the urge to comment on – that a vaccine can put extra pressure on to the sensitive – some of the most compelling research out there indicates that the rise in allergies is BECAUSE kids are too protected these days. Infants are designed to be bombarded with microbial “information”, even the bacteria that become part of their digestive system has an external source and is unique to the individual. Without that early bombardment – both germs and viruses, the immune system can’t tune itself. Vaccines are merely controlled introduction of viruses that allow the body to become conditioned, without the massive headache of the actual illnesses.
Like sl, I immunized both of my children and also allowed them to play liberally in the dirt and banned antibacterial soaps from my home. We also had a dog (pets in the house with infants also help build immunities).
I’d do the same in a heartbeat and feel pretty confident that my kids are stronger and healthier than many of their more coddled peers (tfu tfu tfu).
On another point – thanks for posting the WSJ article, saw the leader and was interested but don’t subscribe.
#56 SL
I realize the horror of the 15mo death.
With bacterial meningitis there only one of the three strains of that has an vaccine (Prevenar) that works in infants.
In some ways that makes it worse, as the parents think they vaccinated their child.
still_looking says:
“Occurence? Or do you mean diagnosis?
More likely is that the autism spectrum disorders have been prevalent all along and only with education and awareness, have now been diagnosed.”
Agree here too – yesterdays geeky nerd is todays Aspergers sufferer. Yesterdays out of control and boisterous troublemaker is todays ADHD kid on ritalin.
Would throw in that in todays VERY competitive school world many parent fight for diagnoses in order to recieve benefits and allowances for their kids.
My engineer geek father is classic Aspergers, never diagnosed and never would be as he grew up a long time ago (obviously).
#102 SL
“More likely is that the autism spectrum disorders have been prevalent all along and only with education and awareness, have now been diagnosed.”
I agree with this completely.
#105 Lisooh
“Would throw in that in todays VERY competitive school world many parent fight for diagnoses in order to recieve benefits and allowances for their kids.”
I would disagree with this. Most parents will fight to keep their kids mainstreamed and not segregated and labeled.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez
It won’t let me “link” my search.
You need only enter “autism causes” in the search box, then sort by date.
You will see the causes are so extraordinarily manifold that it may be decades before a “autism cause” is elucidated.
Much of the current research that I looked at points to genetic and possibly some environmental factors that trigger a predisposition to the disease. Much like Type 1 (insulin dependent) diabetes is.
The data are multinational, detailed and complex. To implicate vaccines at this point is disingenuous.
’nuff from me….
I still have pages and pages of hypothermia protocol to decipher…
sl
PGC – Maybe. I’ve definitely seen some very pushy parents pressure for diagnoses, the rational being “so little xxx receives everything he/she needs/is entitled to”. But I’ve also seen people push for mainstreaming (even potentially at the expense of their classmates). Of course there is huge variety in parents and parenting so it is impossible to stereotype here.
Thanks for the good read, I will definitely return for an update!
sl; ref 42; All your recommendations for check ups are spot on. For those who don’t get checked, do it now. After three surgeries, five months of chemo, and a month of radiation, I can attest that cancer is no fun, but if you catch it early, your chances of surviving increase. Here’s wishing all a safe and healthy 2010.
#110 lisooh
I agree there are a full range of parents as well.
An inclusion program should not be disruptive if the children with needs have the correct support services in place.
Our own childhood classrooms would have been so different if the geeky nerds and boisterous children had been removed.
The argument is not that autism is DEFINITELY caused by vaccines, but that it MAY be caused by vaccines.
My actions as laid out earlier (one vaccine per office visit, per month, rather than 3-4 vaccines in a single office visit), are based on that possibility, and seem a reasonable course of action to reduce impact to the child, while still getting the mandated vaccines. Win-win.