Cheap Thrift is the new black

From the Wall Street Journal:

Hard-Hit Families Finally Start Saving, Aggravating Nation’s Economic Woes

Rick and Noreen Capp recently reduced their credit-card debt, opened a savings account and stopped taking their two children to restaurants. Jessica and Alan Muir have started buying children’s clothes at steep markdowns, splitting bulk-food purchases with other families and gathering their firewood instead of buying it for $200 a cord.

As layoffs and store closures grip Boise, these two local families hope their newfound frugality will see them through the economic downturn. But this same thriftiness, embraced by families across the U.S., is also a major reason the downturn may not soon end. Americans, fresh off a decadeslong buying spree, are finally saving more and spending less — just as the economy needs their dollars the most.

Usually, frugality is good for individuals and for the economy. Savings serve as a reservoir of capital that can be used to finance investment, which helps raise a nation’s standard of living. But in a recession, increased saving — or its flip side, decreased spending — can exacerbate the economy’s woes. It’s what economists call the “paradox of thrift.”

U.S. household debt, which has been growing steadily since the Federal Reserve began tracking it in 1952, declined for the first time in the third quarter of 2008. In the same quarter, U.S. consumer spending growth declined for the first time in 17 years.

That has resulted in a rise in the personal saving rate, which the government calculates as the difference between earnings and expenditures. In recent years, as Americans spent more than they earned, the personal saving rate dipped below zero. Economists now expect the rate to rebound to 3% to 5%, or even higher, in 2009, among the sharpest reversals since World War II. Goldman Sachs last week predicted the 2009 saving rate could be as high as 6% to 10%.

As savings increase, economists say, spending is likely to contract further. They expect gross domestic product to decline at an annualized rate of at least 5% in the fourth quarter, the biggest drop in a quarter-century.

“The idea that the American family will quickly spend us out of this recession is a fantasy. It won’t happen,” said Elizabeth Warren, a professor of law at Harvard University who last month was named chair of the Congressional oversight panel tasked with overseeing the distribution of the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program funds.

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361 Responses to Cheap Thrift is the new black

  1. galgon says:

    flirst?

  2. bairen vulture says:

    Looks like Joe Sixpack is tapped out.

  3. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Manhattan Apartment Prices Fall Nearly 4%

    Prices of existing Manhattan apartments fell nearly 4 percent in the fourth quarter, two reports showed, and analysts warned of much deeper declines in coming months in the wake of turmoil on Wall Street and financial sector layoffs.

    The median sales price — in which half the sales prices were higher and half were lower — of an existing Manhattan apartment fell 3.6 percent to $732,500, according to the Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Fourth Quarter Market Overview.

    “You could say it started the second week of September when Lehman (Brothers) filed for bankruptcy,” said Dottie Herman, chief executive of Prudential Douglas Elliman, one of the United States’ largest real estate companies. “Up until then, New York City was holding its own and after that people were in shock. Things they trusted their whole lives just fell apart.”

    Herman sees a possible price decline of 20 percent to 25 percent afflicting the entire Manhattan market in the first quarter.

  4. bairen vulture says:

    I’m delighted Al Frankken is going to the Senate. There are already 500+ clowns in Congress, might as well toss in a professional comedian.

  5. cooper says:

    not that it was unknown…

    Of all the various parties who contributed to the boom and bust in housing and credit, none have escaped more unscathed than the National Association of Realtors

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

  6. cooper says:

    Grim… 5 in mod?

  7. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Corzine orders $800M in budget cuts

    Governor Corzine ordered more than $800 million in budget cuts today, making public a list of programs to be cut, everything from grants to historic preservation efforts to needle exchange programs for drug addicts.

    The lists details budget cuts big and small: $1.5 million cut from the State Commission on Investigation to a $1,000 savings by delaying building improvements in the Department of Military Affairs.

    The cuts reach across all state departments, including $15 million from the state’s special municipal aid program and $1.4 million from homeland security grants.

    A state fund for hunters and anglers was cut by $1 million, a law enforcement officer training and equipment program was cut by $882,000 and the governor’s own literacy program was trimmed by $700,000.

    On Friday, Corzine said tax revenues are $2.1 billion below what the state needs to match expenses.

    His administration released its 12-page list of departments whose money would be reduced in 2009.

    The state hasn’t collected nearly enough income, sales and corporate taxes. Real-estate tax revenue has gone down nearly 27 percent. The casinos, expected to bring in $415 million, earned just $382 million, an 8 percent decline.

    At the same time, the state has spent more on Medicaid, Family Care and other public assistance.

    Corzine last week said the state hopes to get $300 million in federal money, part of an anticipated stimulus package from Washington.

  8. Outofstater says:

    Totally OT: Not that we needed anything else to worry about but several groups of recruits are under total quarantine at Lackland AFB, Texas because of an outbreak of “boot camp flu” or Adenovirus 14. It is a variant of the common cold virus and this one can be lethal. It killed a young recruit in 2007. Previous outbreaks were contained and it is not considered a threat to the general population. No link – personal knowledge.

  9. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Metro-Area Foreclosure Sales Tripled in First 10 Months of 2008

    Foreclosure sales in the 25 largest U.S. metropolitan areas almost tripled in the first 10 months of last year as rising unemployment and falling home values made it tougher for homeowners to sell or refinance their mortgages.

    Motivated sales, which include foreclosure auctions and banks selling homes taken over for non-payment, increased 193 percent from January to October 2008 from a year earlier, New York-based real estate data company Radar Logic Inc. said today in a report. Conventional sales rose 6 percent in that period.

    “Lenders are motivated to sell foreclosed houses as quickly as possible to get as much of the loan recovered as possible,” Radar Logic Chief Executive Officer Michael Feder said in an interview. “They have a tendency to accept deeper discounts relative to other sales, to the point where motivated sales are driving the market.”

    Investors are betting that home prices will continue to decline nationally through 2010, Radar Logic said. Prices will stabilize in Los Angeles and Phoenix in 2010, while values will fall further in Miami and New York, the data company said.

    “What the forward contracts are saying is we’re expecting further pain in New York due to further pain in the financial services industry,” Feder said.

  10. grim says:

    December WARN Notices released:

    2008-December WARN Notice

    COMPANY CITY EFFECTIVE DATE WORKFORCE AFFECTED

    GROCERY HAULERS S. KEARNY 1/31/09 138

    ABBOTT LABORATORIES EDISON 2/4/09 143

    GRIFFIN PIPE FLORENCE 2/27/09 200

    MARRIOTT GALLOWAY 2/13/09 66

    MARRIOTT ABSECON 2/13/09 68

    PRESS RELAY NEWARK 3/11/09 101

  11. HEHEHE says:

    Shore Guy,

    I appreciate your sarcasm from yesterday. Apologize for the name calling. I’ve some friends who are incredibly strident O supporters and there’s just no questioning any decision he makes.

  12. DL says:

    “Time and again, we saw agents trying to avoid slashing prices. Thanks to Redfin’s Web site, we could see when listing agents pulled units off the market and relisted them two days later at the same price, trying to make it look like a new listing. Other agents would advertise price drops when in reality they decided to change the listing and charge separately for the parking. A $425,000 condo would look like it was cut to $400,000, but the fine print would say parking was an extra $25,000.”
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122834060514976935.html

  13. DL says:

    “One automaker, Hyundai Motor America, is trying to woo skittish buyers by promising to let them return cars free for up to a year if they lose their jobs and can’t make the payments.

    The “Hyundai Assurance Program” applies to customers stricken by misfortune outside of their control, such as losing their job, becoming disabled or losing their driver’s license for medical reasons. It covers depreciation up to $7,500.”
    http://www.courierpostonline.com/article/20090106/BUSINESS/901060327/-1/newsfront2

  14. whatthe says:

    According to this article, Morristown had 5 sales in December. What is interesting, as the article points out, is that 2 were foreclosure sales, 1 was a short sale, and 1 was a very recent flip.

    http://www.nj.com/morristown/index.ssf/2009/01/morristown_home_sales_were_dow.html

  15. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Manhattan’s Sterling Real-Estate Market Begins to Tarnish

    Manhattan, among the nation’s most expensive housing markets, has been largely immune from the national housing downturn. But that’s about to change as the area braces for significant price declines in 2009, according to two industry reports scheduled to be released Tuesday.

    Overall, prices of condominiums and cooperative apartments — the dominant type of housing in Manhattan — that sold in the fourth quarter of 2008 were higher than a year earlier, averaging $1.49 million. That was up 3.1% from the fourth quarter of 2007, according to Prudential Douglas Elliman.

    But the average prices of units that are under contract but haven’t yet closed declined 20% since August 2008, a rapid reversal, according to Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers, which co-wrote one report with Prudential Douglas Elliman, one of the city’s largest residential real-estate firms. Those sales should close during the first quarter of 2009. A separate report by the Corcoran Group found that transactions in the fourth quarter fell by as much as 53%.

    “The Manhattan market … has clearly entered a new period of lower sales activity and overall declines in prices,” said Jonathan J. Miller, chief executive of Miller Samuel.

    One sure sign of steeper price cuts to come: The inventory of homes for sale was up 39% in the fourth quarter from the same quarter a year ago. Real-estate brokers said the Manhattan market slowed sharply in mid-September, when credit markets seized up and Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. Since then, inventory has soared as buyers have become more selective and more willing to wait for a good deal.

  16. kettle1 says:

    Outofstater

    Adeno 14 hit when i was in boot camp in beautiful fort jackson. several recruits ended up in the hospital for a while. Then one morning at 0’dark thirty, the DI’s lined us all up and the medics came around handing each of us 1 blue pill and 1 red pull (Not a joke). They said take each one and that the women should not become pregnant for at least 6 months.

    I always wanted to be a lab rat

  17. Shore Guy says:

    Hehehe,

    I take no offense to anything said here. Don’t worry about it. By the same token, I never mean to offend in anything I say here.

  18. kettle1 says:

    outofstater,

    basic training recruits are probably one of the easiest groups to quarantine. They are already under strict supervision and they do not generally interact with outside groups.

  19. HEHEHE says:

    FBI plans large hiring blitz of agents, experts

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090105/us_nm/us_usa_fbi

    Just in time for the food riots

  20. Sean says:

    re: #11 HEHEHE – I know a few here in NJ who put the Messiah up on a very high pedestal. I was out with one of the “followers” yesterday for lunch, this guy actually cuts the O’Bama newspaper articles out and saves them in a scrapbook. I try not to discuss the economy with coworkers at lunch, however this coworker was telling the lunch crowd how O’bama is going to save the economy THIS YEAR by creating lots of jobs, yes we are all SAVED after all O’Bama climbed the mountain top.

    You should have seen the look on his face when I explaned the coming inflationary spending and the potential job losses in each sector. It was if I commited blasphemey and proclaimed that GOD was actually the DEVIL.

    Going to be looooong year folks.

    FYI – I use the apostrophe in his name because of his Irish Heritage, you should too.

  21. John says:

    clotpol like the jacob javits street walkers of the 1980’s you get the best rates with the experienced ones that you can’t really tell their gender.

    Clotpoll says:
    January 5, 2009 at 5:37 pm
    John (234)-

    Is the “experienced agent” pictured a man or a woman (or some sort of post-op “shim”)?

    I generally like to transact business with people whose gender I can readily identify.

    Just me.

  22. Shore Guy says:

    “condominiums and cooperative apartments”

    What are the key legal differences between these two types of housing?

  23. Clotpoll says:

    Sean (20)-

    Sounds like this guy is another living advertisement for eugenics.

  24. Shore Guy says:

    It is interesting looking at rational microeconomic actions — e.g., cutting spending and increasing savings — running up against a macroeconomic system addicted to overspending.

  25. tbiggs says:

    I wish they would just *stop* using that ridiculous phrase, “paradox of thrift.” There is no paradox involved!

    Yes, when the end of an inflationary binge comes, most citizens have to go into debt rehab at the same time. Keynes wanted us to think of it as a “paradox” because if you view it as a natural outcome, you question his entire theory. Sorry, Mr. Keynes, you can mainline the “fiat dollar drug” for a long time, but sooner or later you will crash, and you will have to pay the price. We don’t call it the “paradox of pain” when an addict finally quits, do we.

  26. DL says:

    One of my co-workers is convinced that the coming economic stimulus package will create jobs, make the U.S. the leader in green technology, bring down the cost of alternative energy technologies, and propel us out of the recession. When I opined on how this recession was not like previous ones, how the stimulus package would actually be spent, versus the theory, and what the likely results would be (a temporary boost to the industries with the best lobbies) I got that same blasphemey look.

  27. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (22)-

    Condo- you own an actual piece (or, fractional piece) of real estate.

    CoOp- you own shares in a company that owns the real estate.

  28. John says:

    A condo is better for a bongo player as you own the unit and the neighbors can’t kick you out, a condo is also better if you want to sell to terrosists or rent to hookers as you don’t need board approval. A condo generally has higher price per square foot than a coop. However, old noisy ladies like coops better as before people rent or sell units they need board approval and they can force bongo players from banging their bongos all night and prevent people from having barking dogs all day.

    Shore Guy says:
    January 6, 2009 at 9:01 am
    “condominiums and cooperative apartments”

    What are the key legal differences between these two types of housing?

  29. Yikes says:

    quick dumb question:

    We had the inspection and got a copy of the inspection report. Nothing major. BUT, the sellers wanted a copy of it.

    Not a problem, right? It basically details the major/minor issues of the house. I see no issue with letting them have it, but i know everyone here has a horror story, so i figured i’d ask the masses …

  30. grim says:

    You don’t own real property when you buy a coop. You are buying shares in a company that owns the building, or interest in a company that owns real property. The shares you receive are typically proportional to unit size/assessments.

    IMHO, lots of people like to cite exclusivity to explain coop board behavior, but realize that their position is to protect all of the investors in the building. If you can’t pay your condo dues (which pay for taxes, maintenance, etc), they are on the hook to do so.

    The risk isn’t just one-sided, if the cooperative company goes kaput, you might your lease to the unit.

  31. Shore Guy says:

    # 20

    I suspect the people who will be most disappointed by B.0. will be those under 30 who fell in love with the “idea” of B.O. as president and who were not driven to him on the basis of policy (in particular an assessment of which policies could be ACHIEVED) given the fiscal and political realities the nation was facing as early as last January.

  32. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (24)-

    Funny that you use the term “addiction”.

    People turning to savings are really going thru economic cold turkey/rehab. And the pushers don’t like it.

    Now, the pushers are even trying to get little old ladies hooked on the smack known as risk/credit.

    Funny to see that the people who run America believe the best way to wean someone from smack is to give him more smack.

    Pure idiocy. Destined to crash into a wall at 110 mph.

  33. Yikes says:

    oh and re: HOME INSURANCE

    do most people do the 1,000 deductible, the 2,000, or the 5,000?

    we just got some quotes and there’s no difference between $1k-2k … but there is a major difference at the $5000 deductible.

  34. tbw says:

    Big difference between being cheap and being frugal. Cheap people don’t care about anyone but themselves. Donate your time and money when you can. Help your neighbor if you have the means. You will find it much more rewarding than buying something from Target that was made in China. My godness, people love their retail. Bad economy? Tell that to the parking lot of the Garden State Plaza.

    Anyway, invest in a sewing machine. I have mine. Watch Singer stock skyrocket. All disclaimers.

  35. Clotpoll says:

    Yikes (29)-

    BIG PROBLEM! That report is your personal property, paid for by you. If your deal falls through, the seller now has a free “pre-inspection report” to offer his next prospective buyer.

    Only pertinent parts of your inspection should be shared with the seller.

  36. rhymingrealtor says:

    Sean,

    I too have a scrapbook I am keeping. My reasons are not because I think he is a god. I have printed copies of his acceptance speeches and his speech on race relations. And of course the covers of Newspapers the day after the election. I am keeping these for my children because regardless of what you think about the man the election was historic, and it was the first one my children were aware of enough to particpate with interest. Not by voting they are too young, but buy watching debates, conventions and such. I am hoping to raise voters, after all even with the huge turnout, apathy toward elections is rampant.
    His speeches are also very good, and worth reading.

    KL

  37. tbw says:

    Oh James, I bought a S&W .38. Now I feel safer if and when the social unrest comes. :)

  38. grim says:

    If only some savvy Wall Streeter could concoct some form of methodone-credit to keep the masses satisfied.

  39. livinginpa says:

    Yikes, no problem giving sellers copy of inspection report. In fact, I believe they are entitled to it if not by contract provision, it may be as a matter of law in PA.

  40. Clotpoll says:

    kl (36)-

    I am trying to get my children comfortable with the idea of learning a foreign language and moving to another country.

  41. Shore Guy says:

    “We had the inspection and got a copy of the inspection report. Nothing major. BUT, the sellers wanted a copy of it.”

    You paid for it, it is yours. If they want a copy, let them get an inspection too, or have them pay for yours.

    The document is to help you decide what to do. If there are issues in it, it really does not matter whether or not they agree with the inspector’s opinion. If the report points out issues and they refuse to fix or negotiate an allowance, you are faced with the decision of whether or not to go ahead anyway.

  42. Sean says:

    re: #23 Clot – It is going to be a wait and see thing with this coworker a little mental experiment of mine, my coworker’s views are that of Hope and Faith when it comes to the O’Bama.

    I don’t want to dash the guys hope totally for now, since I know by the end the first term or perhaps even in 2009 the O’Bama is going to be on the defensive from even the Bible thumpers.

    After all there is nothing like a angry mob of churchgoers after the preacher makes off with the donations.

  43. Clotpoll says:

    If I kept a scrapbook, it would be filled with people on my hit list.

  44. Shore Guy says:

    So, in a coop, one can be relocated against one’s will to any’ol apartment the board decided to move one to upon a majority vote?

  45. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    NY AG: Mortgage Brokers Admit to Fee Gouging, Discrimination

    An investigation by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo into alleged predatory lending practices at GreenPoint Mortgage Funding, Inc. has led the crusading AG to take the state’s first law enforcement action against mortgage brokers for predatory and discriminatory lending practices. The two brokers in question — HCI Mortgage and Consumer One Mortgage — admitted they charged higher fees to 455 black and Latino borrowers relative to their white counterparts, and agreed to pay $665,000 collectively in restitution to affected borrowers. Both brokerages operate more than 20 branch location in the state.

    “The blatant discrimination in this case is as illegal as it is inexcusable,” said Cuomo in a press statement. “These customers were charged significantly higher fees for no reason other than being a minority.”

  46. grim says:

    So, in a coop, one can be relocated against one’s will to any’ol apartment the board decided to move one to upon a majority vote?

    Nah, at least not that I know of. Shareholder is given a proprietary lease to his or her specific unit.

  47. John says:

    Singer went out of the sewing machine business many years ago, they sold their name to a chinese company that makes cheap chinese sewing machines and slaps a Singer label on it. If you want one go to an estate sale and buy a real used one.

    In a coop they can’t move you to a new apartment. I actually lived in a coop and I liked it. Only time coop got involved that I recall was idiot single girl who worked in city got a dog and a talking parrot while she was at work the damm bird talked all day and dog barked all day. Another time a stupid family got big wheels and scooters for their kids on a wood floor with no carpeting and could care less they lived above a retired teacher. The bird was booted and the family got carpeting. My coop only intervined when Darwin failed.

    tbw says:
    January 6, 2009 at 9:11 am
    Big difference between being cheap and being frugal. Cheap people don’t care about anyone but themselves. Donate your time and money when you can. Help your neighbor if you have the means. You will find it much more rewarding than buying something from Target that was made in China. My godness, people love their retail. Bad economy? Tell that to the parking lot of the Garden State Plaza.

    Anyway, invest in a sewing machine. I have mine. Watch Singer stock skyrocket. All disclaimers.

  48. livinginpa says:

    Yikes, I am enjoying the obstuctive anctics mentiobed in #41 but must respectfully disagree. While you did pay for the inspection, your right to inspect was given by the current owners with the understanding that you would both get copies of inspection report (at least that’s what is usually in the contract). After all, they have a duty to disclose any findings if your sale did fall through b/c of something in the report.

    The thinking/policy behind the law which entitles the sellers to a copy of the report is that they are still the owners and will remain so until possession officially passes to you at closing. As such, they are entitled to notice of any findings (good, bad or indifferent) about their property.

    In your case, b/c there is nothing of any real interest in the report, there is no reason to make an issue of it.

  49. PGC says:

    “Anyway, invest in a sewing machine. I have mine. Watch Singer stock skyrocket.”

    I bought Mrs PGC a Serger for Christmas. She was overjoyed. It complements her main machine and the Embroidery machine I got her a few years back.

    All part of the life skills set.

  50. Hard Place says:

    According to this article, Morristown had 5 sales in December. What is interesting, as the article points out, is that 2 were foreclosure sales, 1 was a short sale, and 1 was a very recent flip.

    whatthe’s article from nj.com shows that the only transactions clearing the market in Dec in Morristown are forced sellers. That to me is a fairly solid sign that the ridiculous asking prices will be coming down. These sellers will be so far off market that they will either pull their listings or go to market level if they want to sell. The other possibility is they remain disillusioned and become a forced seller themselves in the future.

  51. Clotpoll says:

    Why don’t they just let this place go the way the rest of Baltimore has? Open-air drug bazaars are exciting:

    Jan 06, 2009 (The Baltimore Sun – McClatchy-Tribune- It may be a buyer’s market, but Harborplace is going to be a tough sell. General Growth Properties, the financially strapped owner of the pavilions and The Gallery, says it is looking for investors or buyers for its waterfront markets here and in New York and Boston. Buying into these projects would require deep pockets since the commercial credit market is so pinched, but as critical to the future of Baltimore’s prime waterfront venue, an investor would need vision.
    The heart of the Inner Harbor’s revitalization 30 years ago, Harborplace remains a draw for tourists. But its revolving door of eateries and shops makes for a less than inviting experience. Some experts feel the pavilions have outlived their purpose. Harborplace and its companion property, The Gallery, need a new reason for being. General Growth Properties has done a passable job of keeping them going since purchasing the Rouse Co., but even if GGP finds new partners, the dismal economy may stand in the way of any major investment in the properties. However, just as Inner Harbor East was re-imagined, the intersection of Pratt and Light streets demands inspired attention.

  52. John says:

    I agree and disagree. Last time I sold a house the buyer got an inspection, don’t know why as I said house was as is. Then he comes back with mumbo jumbo he wants money off due to problems with inspection. I say no way, but if house is unsafe maybe I will fix it if he gives me a copy of the report. I could care less about his inspection and since I am selling don’t need or want an inspection report. But if he expects me to fix something for free I want to see the report.

    Shore Guy says:
    January 6, 2009 at 9:14 am
    “We had the inspection and got a copy of the inspection report. Nothing major. BUT, the sellers wanted a copy of it.”

    You paid for it, it is yours. If they want a copy, let them get an inspection too, or have them pay for yours.

    The document is to help you decide what to do. If there are issues in it, it really does not matter whether or not they agree with the inspector’s opinion. If the report points out issues and they refuse to fix or negotiate an allowance, you are faced with the decision of whether or not to go ahead anyway.

  53. Yikes says:

    great points, clot.

    but i also agree with the guy in PA. i think what we’ll do is give them the list of ‘material defects’ and see if that makes them happy.

    if it is PA law, then yeah, i have no problem giving it up.

  54. All Hype says:

    Gotta love the markets…

    The 2 day pump until the employment numbers come out on Friday.

    This is geting predictable….

    Mustard seeds my friends, we are almost starting the recovery.

  55. John says:

    I personally would never marry a women who did not already own and know how to operate a sewing machine.
    The jappy girls in Great Neck may think, Sewing, Cooking and F@cking are three cities in China but to me they are the big three of marriage material.

    PGC says:
    January 6, 2009 at 9:35 am
    “Anyway, invest in a sewing machine. I have mine. Watch Singer stock skyrocket.”

    I bought Mrs PGC a Serger for Christmas. She was overjoyed. It complements her main machine and the Embroidery machine I got her a few years back.

    All part of the life skills set.

  56. John says:

    Jobless Recovery!!!!

  57. Clotpoll says:

    John (55)-

    1953 called. They want you back.

  58. make money says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a7BgGyfp88dg&refer=us

    NNJ is special cause we are sooo close to NYC. LOL!

  59. Clotpoll says:

    I bet the interior of John’s house looks like the set of Mad Men.

  60. Clotpoll says:

    I wouldn’t worry too much about Manhattan apt. buildings until the razor wire and armed sentries appear.

  61. #51 – Clot-Why don’t they just let this place go the way the rest of Baltimore has? Open-air drug bazaars are exciting

    I just started re-watching season 3 of The Wire last night.
    Art/Life, you know the rest.

  62. grim says:

    I’d sleep better knowing my doormen were armed.

  63. Clotpoll says:

    If they clean up Baltimore, where will all the people from West Virginia who want to get high go?

  64. schlivo says:

    Are pending home sales due out today?

  65. grim says:

    In 10 minutes

  66. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    Lawmakers set new mortgage bankruptcy bill

    Legislation designed to stem foreclosures by allowing bankruptcy judges to erase some mortgage debt will be introduced by Congressional Democrats on Tuesday, and hopes are high that it will pass after a similar plan failed last year.

    Democrats in both the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate plan to introduce the legislation.

    A similar plan failed in the Senate last spring as President George W. Bush and many Republican lawmakers opposed it, but supporters of what has been dubbed “mortgage cram-down” believe that they will prevail as the housing crisis has deepened and President-elect Barack Obama prepares to take office.

    “Economic conditions have only worsened since we last debated this plan,” said Rep. Brad Miller, a member of the House Financial Services Committee who plans to introduce a bankruptcy reform bill on Tuesday. “Until we stop the slide in foreclosures and falling home prices, the economy will get worse still.”

  67. All Hype says:

    Clot (63):

    That is so damn true I cannot believe you said it. My sister used to teach in Baltimore in a elementary school where most of the kids were from WV. She said all the parents looked like meth addicts and really did not get a crap about their kids. My sister felt like she was their mothers.

  68. John says:

    Foreplay to me is a clean house and a home cooked meal. Actually, what I do miss is how nice life used to be. When I was 12 I had a Long Island Press Newspaper Route. The paper actually came out around 2pm every day. Concept was dad read Times or Journal in morning, but the afternoon paper was for when he got home. It had all the late west coast scores for sports and even some of the morning headlines in the same day paper. Well anyhow, lots of Dads has high paying jobs right on Long Island and some worked 7:30am to 3:30 pm. One guy would get home from work around 3:45 pm as I was just hitting his house, he get out of his brand new caddie, his wife would be just starting dinner and would be dressed nice with an apron, I would hand him his newspaper fresh off the presses, his wife would hand him a nice drink and his slippers and he would catch the early news from his lazy boy recliner while the smell of a great meal tempted his appeitite. Today we almost live like animals.

  69. ruggles says:

    53-in PA, the seller has the right to any and all inspection reports. You give them that right when you sign the standard PA contract, unless you change it before you both sign. Its different than in NJ.

  70. grim says:

    Here come cramdowns and unsecured mortgages. Puts upward pressure on rates and will result in tighter lending requirements.

  71. John says:

    By Hellmuth Tromm and Sheenagh Matthews

    Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) — German billionaire investor Adolf Merckle has died, Die Welt newspaper reported today.

    Merckle was hit by a train near his hometown of Blaubeuren yesterday evening, according to Die Welt. It’s possible that he committed suicide, the report said, citing unidentified police officials.

    Merckle, whose holdings span the cement, machinery and drug industries, was battered by wrong-way bets on Volkswagen AG, a drop in the value of his HeidelbergCement AG stock and increasing debt. The 74-year-old, whose estimated $9.2 billion fortune put him 94th on Forbes’s list of the world’s richest people, was negotiating with banks on a bridge loan to rescue his investment company VEM Vermoegensverwaltung GmbH.

    HeidelbergCement stock dropped as much as 13 percent to 29.16 euros. Calls to the company and VEM went unanswered when Bloomberg called.

  72. Shore Guy says:

    “I say no way, but if house is unsafe maybe I will fix it if he gives me a copy of the report.”

  73. Shore Guy says:

    “I say no way, but if house is unsafe maybe I will fix it if he gives me a copy of the report.”

  74. Shore Guy says:

    the rest of the post:

    I don’t see anything wrong with deciding to share parts of the report (or allowing the seller to see, but not have, the report as part of a negotiations process to resolve issues raised inthe report. At that point, the buyer has decided they want the home and calculates that sharing the information will move the parties towards a mutually-satisfactory resolution of the issues — either repair or some form of consideration, money off the price or cash at closing. I see that as far different than sharing the entire contents with the seller.

  75. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. November pending home sales index down 4%

  76. John says:

    Pending home sales index down 4% in November

    By Ruth Mantell
    Last update: 10:00 a.m. EST Jan. 6, 2009
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — In a sign that further weakening may be in store for the U.S. housing market, an index of sales contracts on previously owned U.S. homes fell 4% in November from the prior month, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. The index, which is considered a leading indicator of existing home sales, was down 5.3% from the prior year. Pending home sales in November fell in all four regions, with declines of 7.2% in the Northeast, 6.7% in the Midwest, 2.4% in the West and 2.2% in the South. The October pending home sales index was revised to a decline of 4.2% from a prior estimate of a 0.7% drop. NAR is calling for a real-estate focused stimulus plan from the government.

  77. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Pending home sales index down 4% in November

    In a sign that further weakening may be in store for the U.S. housing market, an index of sales contracts on previously owned U.S. homes fell 4% in November from the prior month, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. The index, which is considered a leading indicator of existing home sales, was down 5.3% from the prior year. Pending home sales in November fell in all four regions, with declines of 7.2% in the Northeast, 6.7% in the Midwest, 2.4% in the West and 2.2% in the South. The October pending home sales index was revised to a decline of 4.2% from a prior estimate of a 0.7% drop. NAR is calling for a real-estate focused stimulus plan from the government.

  78. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. Nov. factory orders fall 4.6% vs. -2.2% expected

    U.S. Nov. factory shipments fall record 5.3%

  79. kettle1 says:

    fun holiday story of the day.

    borrowed a friends GPS for a trip to a baltimore new years GTG. The stupid thing tool me through the slums of east baltimore. That was an interesting trip. The place looks downright post apocalyptic after dark.

    lesson learned? off brand GPS units are not to be trusted!

    http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=baltimore+federal+st&sll=39.355538,-76.521277&sspn=0.016127,0.041928&ie=UTF8&ll=39.312071,-76.589159&spn=0.004233,0.010482&z=17&layer=c&cbll=39.312376,-76.589307&panoid=rQ6D2aA-qgAJwagrHp2ZaQ&cbp=12,278.26131124051864,,0,-3.654408764481872

  80. grim says:

    The October pending home sales index was revised to a decline of 4.2% from a prior estimate of a 0.7% drop.

    This was a substantial downward revision.

  81. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Pending Home Resales Fell 4% in November, More Than Forecast

    Fewer Americans signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in November as credit markets seized up and a deteriorating labor market signaled the housing slump will extend into a fourth year.

    The index of pending home resales fell 4 percent to 82.3, the lowest level since the series began in 2001, from a revised 85.7 in October, the National Association of Realtors said in a report today in Washington. Pending sales fell in all four regions.

    A financial crisis that worsened in the final months of 2008 deepened the economic recession, extending the slump in home sales and prices. President-elect Barack Obama has pledged to enact measures to ease foreclosures and save or create 3 million jobs to boost the economy.

    The numbers were “certainly affected by the credit crunch,” Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, said before the report. “You won’t see home sales bottoming until prices adjust further. We’re no where near the bottom.”

    Economists expected pending sales to fall 1 percent after an originally reported drop of 0.7 percent in the prior month, according to the median forecast of 34 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a drop of 5 percent to a gain of 1.5 percent.

    Today’s home-sales report showed declines of 7.2 percent in the Northeast, 6.7 percent in the Midwest and 2.4 percent in the West. Pending sales fell 2.2 percent in the South.

  82. Shore Guy says:

    “Puts upward pressure on rates and will result in tighter lending requirements.”

    Humm, lower incomes, less-secure job situation, tighter lending standards…. I wonder if congress has any thoughts as to whether this will reduce the ability of people to buy houses, and how the resultant decrease in the number of qualified borrowers will push down the price of houses, thus accerbating the problem they are trying to fix with this misguided approach.

  83. grim says:

    ISM Services still contracting, but above consensus.

    From MW:

    U.S. Dec. ISM services 40.6%, above consensus 37%

  84. PGC says:

    Yikes,

    When we sold the buyer sent us a redacted copy of an inspection report with the material defects. As the agent was representing both sides I asked her for a full copy of the report. Representing both sides means that the agent does not have to offer up anything, but if the agent gets a direct request, I think at that point they are legally required to give it up. When we got the full report, they had redacted comments such as “This unit is in exceptional condition”

    I understand that the report is a safety net for the buyer and is theirs to use as they feel fit. If they look to use it as a bargaining chip, there should be full disclosure. On my buyers list, there were some things that were fair and I had fixed before closing. There were others I told them to take a running jump. I was not replacing the water heater just because it only had 5 years of the 12 year warranty left to run.
    The negotiations on price were a pain and a good indication on how this sale would go. Before we signed contracts, I made it very clear to them that I would not be “nickle and dimed” over the inspection and I would be quite happy to walk out of closing and sit on their escrow if they started messing around.

    I always hope to be in a position were if I am selling I have the option of walking away, even if it will cost me $10K.

  85. grim says:

    From the AP:

    Pending home sales plunge to record low in Nov.

    The National Association of Realtors says pending home sales fell to the lowest level on record in November, as the plummeting stock market and faltering economy caused buyers to put their purchases on hold.

    The trade group said Tuesday its seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes fell 4 percent to 82.3 from a downwardly revised October reading of 85.7 in October.

    That’s worse than the reading of 88 that economists expected, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.

    The reading, which was down 5.3 percent from November 2007, was the lowest since in the eight-year history of the index, beating the previous record low of 83 set in March 2008.

  86. Shore Guy says:

    Do other people remember a time when people were only vaguely aware of housing sales numbers in their towns and housing was not seen as an “investment” whose value is tracked on a moment-by-moment basis like the DJIA? I suspect things will not be back to normal until some point when neighbors meeting in the park, at the grocery store, over hotdogs and burgers in the back yard stop talking about RE.

  87. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (82)-

    Naah.

  88. tbw says:

    Wow, Baltimore looks like Detroit.

  89. PGC says:

    #79 Kettle,

    My GPS always takes me through the nicer parts of Patterson any time I go South.

  90. kettle1 says:

    Sean 86,

    yes, they are. They have less then 10% of the gold traded in contracts in a physical vault. IF 10% of contracts attempted to redeem, then it would get very ugly.

  91. Shore Guy says:

    Baltimore is the most run-down place I have ever seen. If one drives fromthe east end of Broadway (in Fells Point) out west beyond John’s Hopkins Hospital the mile upon mile of abandoned, burned, or otherwise horrific housing is jaw dropping.

    Harborplace is not worth a moment of one’s time. Fells Point, onthe other hand, is worth a trip.

  92. NJGator says:

    Kettle 79 – Our GPS once tried to dirve us over a cliff – literally! We were going to a party at the Pallisadium in Cliffside Park. Nuvi did not realize that the street did not connect with it’s “continuation” several hundered feet below. Yikes! Nuvi has many times tried to take us on short cuts through some of the “finer” areas of Essex County.

  93. Stu says:

    Sean,

    Buillion Vault is looking better and better these days.

  94. NJGator says:

    Grim – 95 in mod. Not sure why. It’s a harmless little story of our GPS trying to drive us over a cliff.

  95. grim says:

    Do other people remember a time when people were only vaguely aware of housing sales numbers in their towns and housing was not seen as an “investment” whose value is tracked on a moment-by-moment basis like the DJIA?

    Ahhh, the Good Ol’ Days.

  96. Shore Guy says:

    Anyone here book a suite at the Plaza recently? $2,700 a night for a view of the Park. Before the renovation, it was all of $700-800. Yeesh.

  97. bairen vulture says:

    #89 shore guy,

    I kind of remember those days. So last millennium.

  98. make money says:

    SG 82

    I love it SEC has been contracting out some of its functions. Now that makes me want to buy US equities in the next few years.

  99. Shore Guy says:

    Gator,

    I am sure such things are included in the EULA, preventing one from suing in the event of the product sending one over a cliff.

  100. kettle1 says:

    Gator,

    I have a garmin GPS that has been pretty good about not taking me strange routes or over cliffs. Just didnt have it that weekend and borrowed some chinese knock off brand from a friend.

  101. Shore Guy says:

    Re. equities,

    It will be interesting to see where we are after we get past the first and swcond quarter earnings reports. I am no expert but it is hard to see how the outlook can be good for any but a small percentage of companies.

  102. skep-tic says:

    “Foreclosure sales in the 25 largest U.S. metropolitan areas almost tripled in the first 10 months of last year as rising unemployment and falling home values made it tougher for homeowners to sell or refinance their mortgages.”

    #9

    interesting bit from the RadarLogic report is that, while nationally, distressed sales were 28% of all sales in Oct, in the NYC area, only 1.8% of sales were distressed. This area of the country has majorly lagged the rest in terms of the degree of the correction. I think the 4th quarter of 2008 saw the dam break here and we are going to see swift price declines (driven by distress sales) in the coming months

  103. RayC says:

    Clotpoll says:
    January 6, 2009 at 9:16 am

    If I kept a scrapbook, it would be filled with people on my hit list.

    ——————-

    Clot,

    In the Clotpoll Twilight Zone episode, your picture is on the last page.

  104. veto says:

    Krugman dropping the D word…

    Krugman: Fed Can’t Save Us from Great Depression II

    70 years of conventional wisdom since the Great Depression has been wrong: The Fed can’t head off depressions with easy money. Thus, GD1 may have been un-preventable. GD2 may be unpreventable. The only way to avoid GD2 (now) is frantic government spending (fiscal stimulus).

    Krugman: “If we don’t act swiftly and boldly,” declared President-elect Barack Obama in his latest weekly address, “we could see a much deeper economic downturn that could lead to double-digit unemployment.” If you ask me, he was understating the case.

    The fact is that recent economic numbers have been terrifying, not just in the United States but around the world. Manufacturing, in particular, is plunging everywhere. Banks aren’t lending; businesses and consumers aren’t spending. Let’s not mince words: This looks an awful lot like the beginning of a second Great Depression.

    We weren’t supposed to find ourselves in this situation. For many years most economists believed that preventing another Great Depression would be easy.

    It turns out, however, that preventing depressions isn’t that easy after all…

    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/153165/Krugman-Fed-Can't-Save-Us-from-Great-Depression-II?tickers=gm,tm,%5Edji,%5Egspc

  105. Shore Guy says:

    Ket,

    Speaking of Chinese knock-off brands. I had an interesting experience this weekend. I sliced myself with a box cutter and went to grab some sterile gauze pads to stop the bleeding and clean up the mess. I opened the box and grabbed the paper packet and just as I prepared to rip open the package I saw the words “Made in China.” At that point, I tossed the box and used a washcloth. Given recent events, I have lost all faith in the healthfulness of Chinese products, and I was not putting one in contact with my bloodstream.

  106. grim says:

    From the Paul Mulshine at the Star Ledger NJ Voice Blog:

    Here’s an idea: The state of New Jersey should hire everyone

    To be fair to our Democratic governor, I’ve heard Republicans make the same illogical argument. But not many.

    It’s mainly Democrats who argue, as Jon Corzine does, that the government should not lay workers off because to do so would only contribute to the ranks of those who are unemployed and without health insurance.

    It certainly would. But by that logic, the government should just hire everyone. Then we’d all have jobs and health insurance.

    We’re heading in that direction. The only employment growth in New Jersey over this decade has been in the public sector. Employment by private industry has been stagnant. And that was before the current market collapse.

    Private-sector job loss since then has been staggering, particularly in the industry that concerns me most, the newspaper industry. The gaggle at Trenton press conferences has been reduced to a giggle. Half the journalists are gone.

    Yet there’s full employment on the other side of the microphone. When Corzine met with journalists last week to describe his plan to deal with decreased state revenues, he once again made it plain that he doesn’t want to lay off any deserving Democrats. He proposed instead an 18-month wage freeze for state employees.

    “There’s a preference to keep people working and to keep them with health insurance at a lower cost,” Corzine said.

    At a lower cost to whom? Certainly not to the taxpayer. The public-employee unions responded to Corzine’s proposal by demanding yet another hike in the state income tax.

  107. rhymingrealtor says:

    John,

    I used to think I knew you, now I’m sure. Your last name is Cleaver and they used to call you Beav.

    KL

  108. Shore Guy says:

    “This area of the country has majorly lagged the rest in terms of the degree of the correction. ”

    If one swings a bullwhip and brings it forward to strike, the tip laggs the rest but, in the end, the tip moves far faster than the rest in order to catch up. It is also where most of the pain is inflicted; this geographic region may well find that we are the tip, I suspect.

  109. grim says:

    From the Chicago Daily Herald:

    Suburban real estate CEO found dead

    The chairman and chief executive officer of a Chicago-based real estate firm was found dead of an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound Monday in Kane County, police said.

    The body of Steven L. Good, 52, of Highland Park, was discovered at 8:19 a.m. in a red Jaguar at Max McGraw Wildlife Preserve along Route 25 in Dundee Township, according to the sheriff’s department. It was unclear how long he had been there. Police said no suicide note was found.

    Good was CEO at Sheldon Good & Co. real estate and brokerage firm in Chicago. According to the company’s Web site, he previously worked for the U.S. Senate, the U.S. Department of Justice and the Cook County State’s Attorney’s Office.

  110. John says:

    Municipal Bonds
    Research & Resources – Weekly Market Commentary
    The Long-Term Muni Market Continues to be Attractive (pdf)
    January 5, 2009

    High-grade munis rallied very sharply from early December onward, as selling pressure ebbed, new issues abated, and investors began to turn their attention to the compelling values in munis
    We believe that the rally also included the beginning of a move out along the yield curve and out of cash
    Yields on long-term triple-A paper were down roughly 75 basis points since December 11
    Yields on long-term single-A GOs were down a similar amount, but medium-quality revenue bonds and paper rated triple-B or below did not fair as well
    In our view, there are still some very impressive opportunities in longer term munis, but there will also be some key questions for the market and state and local governments to answer. In this brief 2009 outlook we look at some of the key questions, and identify some of the areas where we believe we have answers

  111. grim says:

    Sheldon Good & Co does auction business in Jersey.

  112. skep-tic says:

    #99

    “Anyone here book a suite at the Plaza recently? $2,700 a night for a view of the Park. Before the renovation, it was all of $700-800. Yeesh.”

    Plaza is beyond my budget either way, but at this point a regular room in an average hotel in manhattan is at least $300. wonder how long that will last in the current climate

  113. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Manhattan Office Rents Fall Most in Two Decades on Fewer Leases

    Manhattan office rents fell the most in at least two decades last quarter as Wall Street securities firms cut jobs and tenants leased less space.

    Fourth-quarter rents dropped 4.8 percent to $69.44 a square foot from the third quarter, commercial broker Cushman & Wakefield Inc. said in a report today.

    Leasing slid to the lowest since 2001 as companies signed up for 19.1 million feet of space last year. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy, the acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co. and the steepest plunge in U.S. stocks since the Great Depression last year contributed to the highest vacancy rates in the nation’s biggest, most expensive office market since May 2006.

    “The majority of tenants in the market for office space have been employing a cautious ‘wait and see’ attitude,” Joseph Harbert, chief operating officer of Cushman’s New York metro region, said in a statement. “As vacancy increases and rents begin to soften, activity has been driven by those tenants nearing lease expirations who have no choice but to make a decision, as well as those who see real value and opportunity in the market.”

    The amount of space tenants put on the market for sublease more than doubled last year to 8.2 million square feet. More than 31 million feet of space is now available in Manhattan, a 43 percent jump over year-end availability in 2007.

  114. NJGator says:

    Has anyone ever used Priceline successfully in NYC? It used to be my go to for San Francisco especially after the dot com bust. I used to stay at the Parc Hyatt or the St. Francis for $65/night. I would never trust it for airfare, but it had always worked nicely for upscale hotel stays.

  115. John says:

    Generally I stay at my pied a tier in the Time Warner building.

    skep-tic says:
    January 6, 2009 at 10:59 am
    #99

    “Anyone here book a suite at the Plaza recently? $2,700 a night for a view of the Park. Before the renovation, it was all of $700-800. Yeesh.”

    Plaza is beyond my budget either way, but at this point a regular room in an average hotel in manhattan is at least $300. wonder how long that will last in the current climate

  116. NJGator says:

    Gator’s cheapo tip of the day…

    Re Priceline, I have found this site to be an excellent resource for guiding on what to bid and what hotels are part of the network for particular cities.

    http://biddingfortravel.yuku.com/

  117. RayC says:

    Shore Guy

    Bullwhip – the first man made item to break the sound barrier. Listen up for that sonic boom.

  118. Al says:

    I wonder what are their estimates are based on?

    http://www.quantcast.com/njrereport.com

    I guess big brother is watching?

  119. gary says:

    “A real estate-focused stimulus plan is urgently needed,” Lawrence Yun, the trade group’s chief economist, said in a statement.

    Dear Mr. Yun,

    F*ck You!

    Sincerely,
    Gary

  120. Shore Guy says:

    Grim,

    In light of this latest news of someone “jumping off a building,” perhaps it is time to start another tag for suicides linked to the “housing crisis.” The guy in Germany, Goode, and ther guy who killed himself in his office the other day over the Madoff issue seem to be the start of a trend. It would be interesting to be able to look back at how many high-fliers decide to end it all rather than live like the rest of us.

  121. grim says:

    I wonder what are their estimates are based on?

    I have no idea, but their demographics are scary close. Of course, this is based on my own anec-dope-al data.

  122. comrade nom deplume says:

    [109] Grim,

    ” The public-employee unions responded to Corzine’s proposal by demanding yet another hike in the state income tax.”

    And why not? It isn’t as if they pay it. So many people working in Trenton live in PA, it isn’t funny. I used to work in Trenton, and the bridges to NJ in the a.m. and back to PA in the p.m. were jammed beyond all belief and reason. By contrast, if you were headed out of town a different way, never a traffic problem.

    And if they raise income taxes? Go back to being a PA “resident.” Just find someone that wants to make a few bucks collecting my mail and entering into a “lease” for that spare room next to the boiler or the tool shed out back (for an amount under the IRS reporting threshold, of course) and change your residency to PA. Of course, you will inform your auto insurer that you are “temporarily” garaged in NJ at your “vacation” home (be sure to write home and auto through different companies). Then put in for mail forwarding of any governmental issue mail, auto-related mail, and employment related mail, and voila, you are a PA resident, paying taxes at 3.07% instead of Corzine’s confiscatory rates.

    [legal disclaimer: even though your odds of getting caught are infinitesmal, this is totally illegal so don’t do it.]

  123. skep-tic says:

    so typical reader of this site is male, mid-30s, childless educated professional… in other words, serial killer material

  124. Shore Guy says:

    Gary,

    With respect to Yun, not even with your…um… specialty tool (with or without a cheerleader outfit, btw).

  125. grim says:

    You forgot affluent, which would make for an American Psychoesque variant.

  126. grim says:

    While we haven’t had the business card comparison thread yet, I’ve been anticipating it for a while now.

  127. Yikes says:

    Guys – anyone ever feel bad about dealing with mortgage companies?

    When i say feel bad, i mean that you’re dealing with 2 different companies, they’re doing everything they can to handle the appraisal and paperwork, and then at the last minute, one of them will lose.

    Just talking to both of them on the phone, each really wants the business, but one can offer a lower rate (4.75 vs. 5, i feel, is significant).

    is this normal? i think each one can tell i feel bad – both have made comments like, ‘you’re going with us, right?’ and i keep saying, ‘hey, whoever can do the lowest rate.’

    anyone else have these pains?

  128. Clotpoll says:

    grim (116)-

    Where’s pret?

  129. still_looking says:

    you wrote:

    so typical reader of this site is male, mid-30s, childless educated professional… in other words, serial killer material

    humph.

    sl

  130. Shore Guy says:

    Yikes,

    As they say, “It is nothing personal, just business.”

  131. Shore Guy says:

    I wonder if the stats on income etc. come from originating IP addresses linked to zip codes?

  132. Stu says:

    “I wonder if the stats on income etc. come from originating IP addresses linked to zip codes?”

    It certainly wasn’t based on PayPal donations to Grim.

    Wah wah!

  133. Clotpoll says:

    yikes (129)-

    Have both companies given you a Good Faith estimate yet? If not, neither company has, in fact, offered you a thing.

    It is NOT all about rate. Nine times out of ten, a company that has promised you the best rate- and not given you a Good Faith estimate- whacks you at the closing with monster fees. Frankly, most mortgage brokers out there work this way. It is sleazy, unethical…and perfectly legal.

    You don’t have a rate until you select a lender and instruct that lender to lock your rate. Until such time, all quoted rates are floating and subject to daily change (sometimes, in rough markets, subject to change more than once a day).

  134. Shore Guy says:

    I am sure this Won’t cause any additional pressure on the world’s economy.

    http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=6583402

  135. Shore Guy says:

    No problem with the ego of the perhaps-newly-appointed senator from Illinois:

    Burris said he would work hard to make his case to the Democratic leadership…I am a solution to the problem.”

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Story?id=6585203&page=2

  136. Hard Place says:

    Plaza is beyond my budget either way, but at this point a regular room in an average hotel in manhattan is at least $300. wonder how long that will last in the current climate

    Not long. I know people who are in the hotel business. Occupancy last year averaged over 90% for their hotels. January is typically a slower month and last year occupancy was in the high 70’s/low 80’s. Fast Forward to this year and January bookings as of right now show a high 30’s/low 40’s occupancy. New York is swooning.

  137. skep-tic says:

    “It is NOT all about rate. Nine times out of ten, a company that has promised you the best rate- and not given you a Good Faith estimate- whacks you at the closing with monster fees. Frankly, most mortgage brokers out there work this way. It is sleazy, unethical…and perfectly legal.”

    having just gone through this, I totally agree. I am suspicious of any firm that offers a below market rate. also, there is something to be said about having a mortgage agent who is thorough, easy to work with, etc. you don’t want to go through the whole contract/closing process with questions in the back of your mind regarding the people providing the financing

  138. John says:

    http://www.bondbuyer.com/attachments/2009010293KOYU1F-1-1231timeline.pdf

    fantastic time line of the events of the credit and equities markets during 2008.

  139. Clotpoll says:

    Yikes (129)-

    “i think each one can tell i feel bad – both have made comments like, ‘you’re going with us, right?’ and i keep saying, ‘hey, whoever can do the lowest rate.”

    Please, please get that Good Faith estimate. Many originators hear the words quoted above and make it their life’s work to fee you to death, should they get the loan.

    Once a lender knows you’re fixated on rate, they work that angle to go for the kill.

  140. Shore Guy says:

    Well, it is good to see that the era of hard-hitting journalism is NOT dead (yet). Clearly, with folks like this on the White House beat, the American people are safe:

    http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/01/the-truth-about.html

  141. Essex says:

    119. Keep on referring to yourself in the 3rd person…it’s just that creepy.

  142. Yikes says:

    yup, got a good faith estimate from both.

    they’re almost identical (both willing to wave app fee if i sign with them; there’s a $25 difference on one other aspect, and then nothing else is different).

    sorry, should have included that earlier.

  143. Shore Guy says:

    Yikes,

    Time to ask for a book of carwash coupons, hot-stone massages, etc.?

  144. Stu says:

    “119. Keep on referring to yourself in the 3rd person…it’s just that creepy.”

    Stu agrees ;)

  145. Shore Guy says:

    Three great lies:

    1) This won’t hurt a bit;

    2) Yes, I will respect you in the morning;

    3) I am from the government; I am here to help.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/28520904

  146. Clotpoll says:

    Hey, bi-

    Love this guy or hate him (Mike Morgan), at least he fesses up to wrong calls:

    “Below you will find our closed trades for Monday, January 5, 2009. As you can see, there are quite a few losing trades. That’s unusual for us, considering our track record (click here), but unlike the bobbleheads you hear recommending stocks day after day, we show you ALL of our trades.

    Let me also clear up one thing. The reason we decided to take these losses was not because we think the bottom was set, but simply because Obama totally blew with his announcement this weekend about the tax stimulus. He is doing exactly what the prior Administration refused to do . . . and that includes both sides of the House and Senate. He is giving big business tax rebates. This will only help builders, bankers and others that made huge piles of money as this crisis built up, and now these businesses are losing money. I will write more on this later. He is basically extending the life of companies that should be out of business.

    Overall, our trading performance has beaten the markets and just about any hedge fund of mutual fund I know of. We finished the year up more than 100% for our Basic Portfolio. Yesterday was bloody for us, but we will be there to fight another day. Obama just put the final nails in the coffin . . . guaranteeing a very deep and painful Depression. Recession and Decession are no longer in the cards. It WILL get very ugly.”

    We closed out the following trades on Monday – 1-5-09

    1 – Profit of 9.91% – Covered JPM at $30.54

    2 – Loss of 2.60% – Covered DHI at $7.60

    3 – Loss of 31.43% – Covered CBRL at $21.90

    4 – Loss of 12.49% – Covered SBUX at $9.90

    5 – Loss of 15.00% – Covered YUM at $32.54

    6 – Loss of 0.44% – Covered TIF at $25.36

    7 – Loss of 5.75% – Covered COF at $33.25

    8 – Loss of 6.32% – Covered WRI at $20.00

    9 – Loss of 9.08% – Covered STIMH at $11.20

    You can view all of our current closed trades at http://www.morgan-florida.org/ClosedTrades

  147. comrade nom deplume says:

    [126] skep,

    “in other words, serial killer material”

    Any wonder why I decided against hosting a GTG?

  148. Shore Guy says:

    Shore thinks Stu is being unfair to Gator.

  149. comrade nom deplume says:

    [132] still,

    Miffed that you weren’t lumped in with the serial killers???

    Truth be told, that analysis is probably spot on, and is a bit scary. Though we could likely deduce it from posts, I cannot see why they would make that sort of brute force effort, thus it begs the question: What is lurking in my hard drive?

  150. NJGator says:

    Shore 152 – You always were my favorite right winger, here :)

    Hopefully one of the rest of you will take Stu in.

  151. grim says:

    Truth be told, that analysis is probably spot on, and is a bit scary.

    You know, we did do an unscientific income/education poll about a year or so ago. Respondents were asked to provide responses by posting under “anonymous”. I went through the posts to confirm there were no dupes. The results did cause a bit of an uproar.

  152. Hobocondo says:

    Regarding John’s earlier posts…

    I would LOVE to be able to offer my husband a home-cooked meal every night. I do it whenever I can, but as I work full-time, it’s not always possible.

    Honestly, the appreciation I get from him when dinner is waiting for him on the table is far more than I get from clients who can’t even be bothered to acknowledge receipt on a project I’ve been working on for months (I am good at what I do – and I know when I’ve done something wrong as it takes clients a nanosecond to point out when something is not to their liking.)

    I’d stay at home if I could, but given our desire to fully fund our kids’ higher education and our need to save for retirement (given the bazillions we supposedly need to retire these days), that is not an option. So hubby definitely gets a clean house, but that hot meal is not always there.

  153. Shore Guy says:

    Shore doesn’t know whether Shore ever saw that :-)

  154. kettle1 says:

    126 skep,

    i believe that the majority of serial killers are white males. most of the non-Caucasian guys are off the hook

    ——————————————

    OT

    Did Volker make any significant changes to investment banking rules in 82? I

  155. Shore Guy says:

    Grim,

    What was the result of the survey that caused the uproar?

  156. grim says:

    Maybe it was two years ago, blog history is a blur.

  157. Stu says:

    “Hopefully one of the rest of you will take Stu in.”

    Hey, I didn’t say that. It was the creepy Stu guy that did!

  158. Shore Guy says:

    “bazillions”

    Pleeeesssseeeee, Hobo. At present, all one needs to have set aside is about $4 million for day-to-day living expenses and $2 million for healthcare. Of course, one needs to adjust upward if they are not retiring today, but, still, it is less than a bazillion. I hope you feel better now.

  159. grim says:

    Incomes and education levels posted were pretty high. Obviously, prone to bias, but still seemed a bit higher than what would be expected.

    The numbers caused a handful of posters to dub the crowd elitists and that the desire for lower home prices here wasn’t due to affordability issues, but “rich white guys wanting to steal houses” or something to that effect.

  160. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    Shore has sometimes observed that Stu guy making all comments to Gator. It is like he knows where she is at all times. Shore even thinks Stu knows where Gator’s child spens his days. Very creepy indeed.

  161. Shore Guy says:

    Ahh, so when buyers want to maximize their advantage they are looking to “steal houses,” but when sellers are looking to maximize their advantage they are, what, getting what they deserve? Or, perhaps, enjoying the benefits of their insightful investment?

  162. Shore Guy says:

    spends, even

  163. Shore Guy says:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5054YM20090106

    This is one person who is glad he went to cash a year ago. A small gain sure beats 40% losses.

  164. Shore Guy says:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL0910395120080109

    So, while the husband is out wasting money his wife is earning extra and HE has a problem with it?

  165. grim says:

    Clothing retailer “Against All Odds” files for Chapter 11.

  166. Shore Guy says:

    Against all but one odds?

  167. NJGator says:

    Shore 166 – I always did attract the circus freaks.

  168. grim says:

    I think they have approximately 15 locations in New Jersey, mainly in malls.

  169. Shore Guy says:

    Should be an interesting evening in the Gator/Stu houshold tonight, lol

  170. Shore Guy says:

    Now, if Stu wears an Oklahoma hat on Thursday….

  171. Yikes says:

    i dont doubt that this blog is people who make good money looking for deals.

    why wouldn’t anyone want a deal?

    anyone here read the millionaire next door? they surveyed at all these millionaires and one of the traits was that all of them were frugal and thrifty.

  172. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Against All Odds USA, Retailer, Files for Bankruptcy

    Against All Odds USA Inc., the operator of more than 70 men’s apparel stores from New York to California, sought bankruptcy protection from creditors.

    The company listed both assets and debt of less than $50 million in Chapter 11 documents filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Newark, New Jersey.

    Officials of the Moonachie, New Jersey-based company said it was “in the best interests of the company, its creditors” and employees to file a Chapter 11 petition.

    Against All Odds, founded in 1995, sells clothing and accessories targeted at young men including lines by Southpole, G Unit, Ecko Unlimited and Converse, according to its Web site.

  173. John says:

    do we have someone named Dexter on this site?

  174. Essex says:

    177…they also ‘owned homes’….often in the same low key neighborhood…..for their whole lives….

  175. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    January 6, 2009 at 9:36 am
    Open-air Drug Bazaar

    clot: wasn’t that a hit song for Prince in the 1980’s with Sheila E.?

  176. chicagofinance says:

    By the way, what is with the “mustard seed” thing? ‘splain please….I’ve been puzzled for weeks…

  177. Clotpoll says:

    “This is Rickey calling on behalf of Rickey. Rickey wants to play baseball.”

  178. Shore Guy says:

    Bo knows forced retirement.

  179. Clotpoll says:

    grim (165)-

    Yeah, but that “handful of posters” has been winnowed down to the singular (and clueless) troll, ReTard.

    Reechard, where are you?

    “The numbers caused a handful of posters to dub the crowd elitists and that the desire for lower home prices here wasn’t due to affordability issues, but “rich white guys wanting to steal houses” or something to that effect.”

  180. John says:

    AHH the catch 22, working to pay for kids college, I call it a catch 22 cause most of the kids whose parents work full time in my kids classes are already falling behind in elementary school. In fact in parent teacher night the teacher thanked my wife for being a stay at home Mom who makes sure her daughter always is prepared for classes and sits with her everynight to make sure the homework is properly done. She has three or four kids like that and they are expected to carry the ball for the nose picking daycare kids who do lousy on the standardized tests. The teachers and schools ratings are based on these tests. In fact the elementary school actually puts kids into three categories, advanced, average and stupid. You can have a classroom of all average but if you do an inclusion class and throw a few dummies in you have to throw a few advanced ones in to balance it out. Basically every third
    grade nose picker needs a third grade egg head to wipe the slate clean.

    Plus I am not convinced it is worth saving even a nickle for college. They seem to bail out the people who don’t save so you spend 18 years living in a junky house and not fully saving for retirement to fund an account that the guy who did not save got for free anyhow. My sister has a 16, 14 and 12 year old lives in a 1.5 million dollar home, drives a new cars, maxes out their 401Ks and go to Disney. Their theory is hey college is not my problem. Both their parents did not give them a nickle towards school and they both have masters.

    Hobocondo says:
    January 6, 2009 at 12:35 pm
    Regarding John’s earlier posts…

    I would LOVE to be able to offer my husband a home-cooked meal every night. I do it whenever I can, but as I work full-time, it’s not always possible.

    Honestly, the appreciation I get from him when dinner is waiting for him on the table is far more than I get from clients who can’t even be bothered to acknowledge receipt on a project I’ve been working on for months (I am good at what I do – and I know when I’ve done something wrong as it takes clients a nanosecond to point out when something is not to their liking.)

    I’d stay at home if I could, but given our desire to fully fund our kids’ higher education and our need to save for retirement (given the bazillions we supposedly need to retire these days), that is not an option. So hubby definitely gets a clean house, but that hot meal is not always there.

  181. NJGator says:

    Not sure if anyone was aware of this already, but it was pretty bizarre walking through there the other day:

    Man at the Mall: Wayne Towne Center
    Wayne has it’s share of shopping. The residents of Bergen County who head to Willowbrook Mall on Sundays to get their seventh day shopping fix in, bypasses this mall that sits in the shadows of the giant retail mecca. The Wayne Towne Center, formerly the West Belt Mall has undergone a change the last few months and is continuing to change everyday. Originally home to Daffy’s, Loehmann’s and Borders, the mall interior is just about vacant and plans are underway to demolish it. Original anchors JCPenney and the popular Fortunoff’s still remain and will remain open during the demolition of the mall.

    http://njmg.typepad.com/shoptalk/2008/12/man-at-the-mall-wayne-towne-center.html

  182. chicagofinance says:

    Yikes says:
    January 6, 2009 at 11:24 am
    Guys – anyone ever feel bad about dealing with mortgage companies?

    When i say feel bad, i mean that you’re dealing with 2 different companies, they’re doing everything they can to handle the appraisal and paperwork, and then at the last minute, one of them will lose.

    Just talking to both of them on the phone, each really wants the business, but one can offer a lower rate (4.75 vs. 5, i feel, is significant).

    is this normal? i think each one can tell i feel bad – both have made comments like, ‘you’re going with us, right?’ and i keep saying, ‘hey, whoever can do the lowest rate.’

    anyone else have these pains?

    Yikes: It’s called capitalism…..you are doing the loser a favor, as it will make them more competitive in the long run…..or die…

  183. Clotpoll says:

    grim (178)-

    Is there a “Retailimplode” site- or some similar place- on the Web to keep score of the dead?

  184. WHYoung says:

    regarding co-ops…

    I know of one case where a grandfather died and left his (fully paid for) co-op to his college age grandson.

    The board would NOT let the grandson reside there as he was underage. (A friend of mine rented this co-op for several years.)

    Co-op boards have a LOT of power over you – if you ever get a board member to be candid with you (especially someone who bought at an insider price) they will admit they could never qualify under the current rules.

  185. Clotpoll says:

    John (187)-

    I’m shocked to say I agree with you.

    In fact, so does Suze Orman.

  186. still_looking says:

    grim 162

    tell, tell!! I don’t remember it but would be interested – actually can’t recall if I responded to it.

    sl

  187. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    January 6, 2009 at 11:32 am
    yikes (129)- Have both companies given you a Good Faith estimate yet? If not, neither company has, in fact, offered you a thing.

    It is NOT all about rate. Nine times out of ten, a company that has promised you the best rate- and not given you a Good Faith estimate- whacks you at the closing with monster fees. Frankly, most mortgage brokers out there work this way. It is sleazy, unethical…and perfectly legal.

    You don’t have a rate until you select a lender and instruct that lender to lock your rate. Until such time, all quoted rates are floating and subject to daily change (sometimes, in rough markets, subject to change more than once a day).

    clot: do you trust your tenant?

  188. still_looking says:

    Nom, as for 153,

    I’m not miffed… I’m no serial killer – wouldn’t want to be one.

    can cite a quote- it’s not exact and I can’t recall to whom its credited, but goes something like this:

    You will be a good doctor after you’ve filled a cemetery with dead people.

    Fortunately, I can count the ones I’m sure of on one hand. And believe it, you never forget your first.

    sl

  189. Victorian says:

    Chi (183) –

    RE: Mustard Seeds.

    It was the term used by Kudlow. All the govt bailouts were mustard seeds thrown into the field which will give rise to the trees of the new bull market in equities.

  190. skep-tic says:

    obviously a lot of families both parents have to work. but I think that if more people were willing to live like people did 30 yrs ago (1 car, no cable, no vacations, no eating out, no unnecessary shopping) then some might find that they could get by fine on 1 income.

  191. Barbara says:

    A little nostalgia. The year was 1998. As Americans, we got our at home movies at brick and mortar rentals, paid late fees too.
    The sanctity of our Oval Office was in question and our Friends in NYC were about to be overshadowed by four gay men cleverly disguised as bawdy broads who were in charge of their own lives and knew how to please a man.
    We were giddy over this AOL thing and couldn’t get enough pixelated free porn.
    And then there was THIS little guy. The first viral. Oh how we chuckled….

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01q9PrJ2qi4

    good times.

  192. Barbara says:

    darn, 198 in mod. ITS SAFE! I swears it

  193. Shore Guy says:

    Still Looking,

    I trust that by the end of your career you will have far fewer than the current president — may he rot in Texas.

  194. Ben says:

    if government could plant seeds to grow a new bull market, then we would have eliminated poverty in the US a long long time ago. The only thing that can keep us from having a bull market in the next 5 years is the government. We are going to have all our industries run with the efficiency of the DMV.

  195. make money says:

    John 187 and Clot 192,

    I’m am terrified to agree with both of you.

    As infants we leave them with spanish, russian, albanian, grandmother strangers and our kids speak better spanish then english even though neither parent speaks spanish. Parents say this is a great thing for the kids.

    At school age, It seems everyone says hey I pay XX in taxes so my kid has a great education. You drop your kid off to school, leave them there for 8 hours and then you don’t have the time to see what and how they did that day at school.

    Then you wonder why your kid is all jacked up.

  196. Hard Place says:

    Add in the fact that 30 years ago, no one had McMansions

  197. Stu says:

    Clot: on saving for your offspring’s college costs…

    Suze says don’t save for your own children before you save for your own retirement. She cites that there are no loan programs to fund your retirement, but their are plenty for educational purposes. I don’t remember her ever mentioning the moral hazard that John referred to when he said, “to fund an account that the guy who did not save got for free anyhow”

    Best thing you can do is to be able to afford to comfortably save for both. Especially considering the credit situation today and the enormous government debt tomorrow. OR, you could chance it and sue John to cover those costs. Personally, I’m hoping my little one wants to plumb or be an electrician.

  198. grim says:

    chi,

    I don’t understand the mustard seed analogy either.

    So that little seed grows into a mustard plant. What good is mustard plant for anything but making more mustard seeds (and mustard)? Is the plant even edible?

    Confused.

  199. lennie says:

    hanging with some friends and family last night…a friend said he ‘heard’ mortgage rates may hit lows of 4% this year. Can anyone speculate on this and where his ‘source’ may be from?..or is it just neighborly yammering. thanks.

  200. still_looking says:

    grim, 204

    it’s like eating your seed corn instead of planting it.

    you make mustard with mustard seeds [or use it to season samosas :)

    sl

  201. Sean says:

    This is what Kudlow means by Mustard Seeds.

    http://www.belushi.com/ahpics/mustard.jpg

  202. Ben says:

    “I don’t understand the mustard seed analogy either.

    So that little seed grows into a mustard plant. What good is mustard plant for anything but making more mustard seeds (and mustard)? Is the plant even edible?

    Confused.”

    I’m not sure about eating the mustard plant itself but I’m pretty sure Obama’s economic team is all for it. Their reasoning for planting all those mustard seeds would be to save the pretzel industry because it’s obvious, without mustard, there can be no pretzels. Err I mean, without Ford, there can be no cars. Or wait, is it the other way around?

  203. John says:

    In the Parable of the Mustard Seed, Jesus compares the Kingdom of Heaven to a mustard seed. Although having some of the smallest seeds, the mustard plant grows to a large size, providing shelter for birds: Mark 4:31-32.

    Inspired by this parable, aristocrat Nikolaus Ludwig von Zinzendorf founded the Order of the Mustard Seed in Germany in 1715.[2] The aims of the order were to be true to Christ, kind to all people and to spread news of the Gospel to the world.

    Buddha also told the story of the grieving mother and the mustard seed. When a mother loses her only son, she takes his body to the Buddha to find a cure. The Buddha asks her to bring a handful of mustard seeds from a family that has never lost a child, husband, parent or friend. When the mother is unable to find such a house in her village, she realises that death is common to all, and she cannot be selfish in her grief.[3]

    In the Quran, God states that the scales of justice will be established on the Day of Judgment, and no soul will suffer the least injustice. Even the equivalent of a mustard seed will be accounted for because God is the most efficient reckoner.[4]

    Jewish texts compare the knowable universe to the size of a mustard seed to demonstrate the world’s insignificance and to teach humility.

  204. Stu says:

    Although I am obviously biased, when the correct day care center is chosen, the benefits are immeasurable. I am convinced that there is no possible way that a stay at home mom could perform the function of education a child as well as a ‘good’ child care center. First, there is the lack of peer pressure and a lack of facilities. Secondly, the social aspect is missing at the home.
    Also, not all of us work into the late PM. Some of us spend a ton of time educating our children when we are not working. I can now leave work at 4pm every day (after all, business is dead) and choose wisely how to spend my time with my family. I proudly don’t even know what GG is. Only show we watch religiously is Top Chef and that is only because we have a local competing. To each their own!

  205. Nicholas says:

    I’m not terribly keen on recalling biblical passages but the term “mustard seed” jogs something in my memory.

    Isn’t there a passage that talks about moving a mountain by planting seeds?

    I would have to look it up but I would put a good guess that the basis of the mustard seed theory comes from biblical scripture. It may have been used flippantly by a politician.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_Mustard_Seed

  206. Stu says:

    China seen facing wave of unrest in 2009

    http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5050F520090106

    “”Without doubt, now we’re entering a peak period for mass incidents,” a senior Xinhua reporter, Huang Huo, told the magazine, using the official euphemism for riots and protests.”

  207. grim says:

    IBM rumored to be laying off 16,000
    Microsoft rumored to be laying off 15,000
    Logitech cutting approximately 1,500

    Tech sector the next to bust?

    Hope those keyboard jockeys know how to use a pick axe. Tech guys worried about layoffs better use their time left learning about construction equipment instead of polishing their resumes.

  208. grim says:

    Hey, wait, I’m a keyboard jockey.

    Damn

  209. Shore Guy says:

    Fedco has mustard too?

  210. Nicholas says:

    Incomes and education levels posted were pretty high. Obviously, prone to bias, but still seemed a bit higher than what would be expected.

    It seems that educated people are coincidentally rich, who would have figured…

    I have participated in other online discussions who’s value was very debatable. Few, if any, supported their arguments with data or research. When asked to support their arguments the posters often folded up shop completely.

    Someone I respect a lot once told me, “if you want to be rich, educated, and successful you need to surround yourself with rich, educated, and successful people, now get to it.”

    I’m not surprised in the least that you have collected educated posters from various areas. I wouldn’t mind participating in another informal survey on race, education, and income.

  211. PGC says:

    Roland Burris showing up to take the IL senate seat today, reminded me of showing up to the DMV without 6 points of ID.

    “I don’t have a sign and a seal from the Secretary of State, but have this letter from his office saying they received the paperwork from the Governor. Isn’t that as good as a signature!”

  212. John says:

    Stu, dual income parents created this trap. When I was young everyone had brothers and sisters, no one went to camp or daycare. There were tons of kids to play with outside all summer and after school. Stay at home Moms had other stay at home Moms over for playdates during the week. Now the streets are dead at 3pm and in the summer as all the little kids are locked up in prision all summer. Most of the stay at home Moms in my town have MBAs and had big jobs back in the day, they are certainly better equiped to handle kids than the slackard 23 year old day care worker juggling 20 kids. When my wife left chase the big boss took her aside and said, I am not allowed to say this, but I truly respect you. The other mothers here have no respect for their own children by continuing to work here, you are doing the right thing. WOW, that said in this decade. Makes me wonder what types of unknown bias exist.

    Stu says:
    January 6, 2009 at 2:01 pm
    Although I am obviously biased, when the correct day care center is chosen, the benefits are immeasurable. I am convinced that there is no possible way that a stay at home mom could perform the function of education a child as well as a ‘good’ child care center. First, there is the lack of peer pressure and a lack of facilities. Secondly, the social aspect is missing at the home.
    Also, not all of us work into the late PM. Some of us spend a ton of time educating our children when we are not working. I can now leave work at 4pm every day (after all, business is dead) and choose wisely how to spend my time with my family. I proudly don’t even know what GG is. Only show we watch religiously is Top Chef and that is only because we have a local competing. To each their own!

  213. New in NJ says:

    The mustard plant is indeed edible. I grew up in the south, and we ate them all the time.
    The seeds are used whole or ground as a spice. The ground powder is commonly mixed with tumeric (that strong yellow color comes from this) and vinegar, and used on your favorite hot dog.

  214. JBJB says:

    Stu [210]

    Totally agree. There are defintely tremendous benefits to using a good child care service. The socialization of your kid to start with. Kids need to be around other kids, it helps build independence and self reliance. Not to mention, the exposure to all the viruses and bacteria know to man, thus resulting in a strong immunity and robust antibody development capability for life.

    There are indeed some parents who see daycare as a substitute for actual parenting, but my belief is that these children are probably better off in the company of qualified strangers.

  215. Shore Guy says:

    As the economy burns around him, George Herbert Hoover Bush will leave town uttering that famous phrase: “Let them eat mustard seeds.”

  216. Victorian says:

    Here is a complete listing of the Tech layoffs.

    http://news.cnet.com/tech-layoffs/

  217. Nicholas says:

    Like I said earlier that I wasn’t hearing any internal news that MSFT was laying off. Officially they are comming out and saying that mass layoffs are not planned, but prudent attrition and contract renegotiations are always on the table.

    http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticleHomePage&art_aid=97819

  218. still_looking says:

    …anyone with a newborn, bre@st-fed child knows exactly what those mustard seeds are really about.

    It’s all a bunch of shit in the end (or from the end.

    sl

  219. Doyle says:

    Please don’t start this daycare / stay-at-home debate, it never ends well. Agree to disagree.

  220. bairen vulture says:

    1) Mustard greens are edible.

    http://www.whfoods.com/genpage.php?tname=foodspice&dbid=93

    2) Kudlow is a dope

  221. JBJB says:

    “Most of the stay at home Moms in my town have MBAs”

    This is an insta classic. Which town is this? I am not sure having an MBA necessarily results in good parenting. I think a strong case could be made to the contrary.

  222. Barbara says:

    I know kids from both good daycare and good stay at home parenting. All are good, well adjusted kids, and plenty smart.
    I did a little of both. At home till 3 1/2, then preschool part time.

    I would never have had kids if my only option was to have them in daycare 10 hours a day from birth.

  223. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Fed Policy Makers Saw ‘Substantial’ Risks to Economy

    Federal Reserve policy makers saw “substantial” risks to the slumping economy last month as they cut the benchmark interest rate to a record low and pledged to expand emergency loans if necessary.

    Central bank officials believed ’’the economic outlook would remain weak for a time and the downside risks to economic activity would be substantial,’’ according to the minutes of the Dec. 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released today in Washington. Some officials saw “the distinct possibility of a prolonged contraction” stemming partly from stresses in financial markets.

    Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has more than doubled the central bank’s balance sheet to $2.3 trillion in the past year while increasing loans to financial institutions reeling from $998 billion in writedowns and losses. The New York Fed began buying mortgage-backed securities yesterday as part of a $500 billion program to bolster the U.S. housing market.

    Some policy makers last month saw “significant risks that inflation could decline and persist for a time at uncomfortably low levels,” the minutes said. Price increases will probably “continue to abate because of the emergence of substantial slack in resource utilization and diminishing pricing power.”

  224. still_looking says:

    Shore Guy, Yah! no kidding (regarding that useless shrub)

    I get to proudly say, I didn’t vote for him either time.

    Not that “O” is gonna save us either.

    People keep forgetting that, ahem, excuse me this fOcking stimulus package money has to come from somewhere… and this is after we’ve already blown our load spent the last 700 Billon.

    We are so FOcked.

    sl

  225. still_looking says:

    off

  226. John says:

    Federal Reserve forecasted continued economic decline in 2009, steep unemployment rise into 2010.

  227. still_looking says:

    Regarding Franken,

    One of my colleagues is a former SNL comedy writer-turned physician.

    I can’t get through a shift without him telling all of us what a great guy Al is.

    He’s known him for 30+ yrs.

    Me? I hate almost all politicians at this point.

    sl

  228. make money says:

    http://chronicle.com/daily/2009/01/9110n.htm?utm_source=at&utm_medium=en

    RP SS and fractiona reserve banking are ponzis.

    I love this guy.

  229. Qwerty says:

    RE: “Shore 152 – You always were my favorite right winger, here”

    Shore is a “right winger” like John is a charter member of the NOW Foundation.

  230. Hope those keyboard jockeys know how to use a pick axe.

    Is it odd to hope I’m one of those about to be laid off? Seriously, I’m sick of the job & industry, but I just can’t get myself to quit.

  231. Ben says:

    “This is an insta classic. Which town is this? I am not sure having an MBA necessarily results in good parenting. I think a strong case could be made to the contrary.”

    I’d argue that the mother with the wooden spoon makes a better parent than the mother with an MBA. Not only can she cook well, but she can give her kid a good stinger with that spoon when her kid gets out of line. The mother with the MBA is hiring a babysitter while she is out gallivanting and spying on the babysitter with the video camera hidden in the teddy bear.

  232. John says:

    Actually, I believe that single income dads generally earn a lot more than dual income dads. Even more so in non union jobs that require travel, ot, sales etc. where bonus is a large part of comp. Funny story was at chase where my brother worked the department gave an average bonus of 100% of base pay. Boss kept track of sick days and vacation days and days you worked 9-5 or left early. His theory was you got paid for that day but you should not deserve a bonus for that day as you either were not there or did the bare min. He then redistributed the bonus to the other workers. At one point my brother was getting like 130% bonus each year as his wife was at home and he never had to live work early. He almost spit his coffee up when the guy who worked 9-5 and got a zero bonus said his wife can’t afford to quit work!!!

  233. Victorian says:

    SRS getting sodomized today. Not pretty. This should shake out all the weak shorts.

  234. John says:

    Ben, in certain neighborhoods the purpose of the MBA is to get a MRS. You graduate college, get a job at a blue chip company, do a part time MBA from NYU meet a trader and hang it up by 34. Years ago at KPMG the joke was what do you call a women Partner? The answer is loser.

  235. skep-tic says:

    agree on the childcare issue that it is ultimately a matter of personal choice and that there is no definitively “right” choice. I just think that some (emphasis on “some”) people pretend as though they have no choice when really they do. in terms of daycare, I actually think this is a much better option than a nanny based on what I have seen from many friends’ horrendous experiences with nannies. At least with a daycare, you are not putting your entire trust with one person. also agree that the social aspect is valuable once kid reaches a certain age (although same thing can come from preschool)

  236. HEHEHE says:

    Vic,

    It’s a sucker rally. End game will not be pretty for the bulls.

  237. Stu says:

    “It’s a sucker rally. End game will not be pretty for the bulls.”

    Can we just move up the inauguration already?

  238. Barbara says:

    243.
    I just didn’t want my kid to be that kid who HAD to go to school with the bad cough and cold because staying home would cut into the Disney vacation personal days.

  239. NJGator says:

    I just found out that our friends have been paying a nanny to have their kid in the back seat of her car while she drops her 18 year old off at community college, picks her up, makes her lunch, takes her back to college and then picks her up after her classes are over. And these parents were aghast at the idea of putting their son in day care.

  240. Sean says:

    re: #244 Stu – no inauguration until Bush hands out some additional pardons and a few medals of freedom.

  241. Barbara says:

    247. njgator
    wow, did they KNOW this the whole time? I really do not like the nanny sitch for all the reasons skept said.
    I really like my guy’s preschool and he did too.

  242. John says:

    Wish when I was 18 I had a smoking hot nanny in the back seat with me. But then again she might have complained to OSHA about neck pains. Well at least when she told her friends her job sucks she would be telling the truth.

    NJGator says:
    January 6, 2009 at 2:51 pm
    I just found out that our friends have been paying a nanny to have their kid in the back seat of her car while she drops her 18 year old off at community college, picks her up, makes her lunch, takes her back to college and then picks her up after her classes are over. And these parents were aghast at the idea of putting their son in day care.

  243. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (216)-

    I want fries with that.

  244. NJGator says:

    248 Barbara – YES! There is some sort of weird power dynamic going on and Nanny is calling the shots. They put their kid in a home daycare that was horrible, and Nanny saved the day when they found her, so they view her as some sort of Mary Poppins savior. She didn’t do this when first hired, but apparently insisted she needed this flexibility when her kid started CC in September and the friends caved. In addition, for 3 days a week of this care, Nanny is getting paid about 50% more than we pay for Lil Gator to attend an excellent full time program.

    Now the kid is over 2 and doesn’t talk. I think Nanny’s days are numbered.

  245. Hard Place says:

    In total agreement w/ using daycare instead of full time parenting. I have one 3 yr old going right now for the last 1 1/2 years. I drop him off around 9 and my wife picks him up around 4. So he spends 7 hours there total. Minus the 2 hr nap and the 1 1/2 to feed him lunch and two snacks he’s there socializing through play and learning things from the care takers. So he’s actively engaging for about 3 1/2 hours. Caretaker to child ratio is 4-1. My child loves it and we have plenty of energy to give him attention when we get home. On the weekends, though i feel wiped out trying to keep him active all day, taking him out and playing with him inside. Sometimes I give in and let him watch some tv to get a bit of a breather. Amazing thing about daycare is they structure the childs day so tv is not in the equation. Most times we make it through a weekend unscathed, but weekends can be more work because the little ones demand so much attention.

  246. Clotpoll says:

    still (234)-

    I’m sure Mr. Franken can’t wait to start spending your money.

  247. kettle1 says:

    “77% of Americans blame media for making economic crisis worse”

    hahahahahah. It was cnn’s fault, really!

    http://www.rbr.com/media-news/12064.html

  248. skep-tic says:

    some of my friends’ nanny experiences:

    identity theft

    personal property theft (jewelry)

    nanny drinks entire bottle of wine (not her own) in bathroom on first day and tries to pretend it is normal

    refusal to do background check

    mom signs kid up for music classes but nanny never takes kids for several months– one day mom decides to take them and music teacher has no idea who they are. Nanny has no explanation for what she did with kids on those days (but mom knows they were not at home from neighbors)

    nanny gets caught three days in a row with kids in front of TV while nanny is smoking in the house (after she had been asked repeatedly to do neither)

    last one may or may not be a problem depending on your perspective– 19 yr old au pair dresses very provacatively culminating in wearing miniskirt and fishnets to Christmas Eve dinner with relatives. Mother-in-law comments negatively– au pair on the next boat back

  249. dentss says:

    why can’t redfin sell homes in N.J ???

  250. Victorian says:

    Why is the FBI on a hiring spree? Spy on the damn bloggers who brought the economy down?

    “FBI MEGA HIRING TO FILL OVER 2100 PROFESSIONAL STAFF POSITIONS”

    http://www.fbijobs.gov/

  251. HEHEHE says:

    Vic,

    I posted that earlier. It’s to protect against the food riots and sniff out the 2009 version of the Weather Underground

  252. Clotpoll says:

    HE (243)-

    Bulls are running…straight off a cliff.

  253. John says:

    VIRGIN ISLANDS PUB FIN AUTH REV REV BDS04.00000% 10/01/2020VIRGIN IS GROSS RCPTTAX LN NT SER. 2006

    Hey ChiFin, this stuff is popping up at 7% yield with a price of around 75. I know it is AMT tax free in all 50 states.

    Is this stuff risky, I have not heard anything bad about the Virgin Islands but their yields are still sky high while NY and NJ bonds have settled down. I am tempted to buy but can’t find much to research.

  254. Hard Place says:

    253 in mod.

  255. chicagofinance says:

    Stu says:
    January 6, 2009 at 2:01 pm
    Although I am obviously biased, when the correct day care center is chosen, the benefits are immeasurable. I am convinced that there is no possible way that a stay at home mom could perform the function of education a child as well as a ‘good’ child care center.

    Stu: I know you are just stating an opinion, but to be frank, there are many people that would look at your statement and simply laugh at it. As an aside, you really insult my wife, which in turn insults me. I don’t take this opinion lightly, because we are foregoing about $200K gross a year.

  256. chicagofinance says:

    John says:
    January 6, 2009 at 3:13 pm
    VIRGIN ISLANDS PUB FIN AUTH REV REV BDS04.00000% 10/01/2020VIRGIN IS GROSS RCPTTAX LN NT SER. 2006

    JJ: bitchin’…..is there some catch? Do you have to sacrifice a virgin or something?

  257. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: TIPS question……what do you know about the resetting of the inflation adjusted face? I heard in the background one day something about being careful in buying TIPS, because some may actually adjust DOWN the face in an environment where the underlying index is racheting down under deflation…….have you heard anything such as this?

    Example….original face is 100, you buy it now at something such as 112, but then the index ratchets down and you face drops to 110 or something….you think you are bulletproof, but you get %ucked because you did pay attention to the fine print……

  258. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    January 6, 2009 at 2:53 pm
    chi (194)- Yes.

    For the fourth time, can you give me the name and number :( sorry :( :(

  259. Sean says:

    re: #260 – yesterdays trade data here, that bond is red flagged.

    http://municipalbonds.com/redflag/flag20090105.html

    927676-MZ-6 VIRGIN ISLANDS PUB FIN AUTH REV GROSS RCPTS TAXES LN NTS 5.000 10/01/2028 72.519 / 74.452 5 50

  260. Clotpoll says:

    chi (265)-

    First Valley Funding (908) 231-7390.

    Ask for Cindy or Bob.

  261. comrade nom deplume says:

    [156] Gator,

    Sure, send him to Brigadoon. I have a driveway that needs resealing, and lot of painting to do. And since I am more heavily armed, I know he won’t try to redistribute my wealth (or stash of Coastline cabernet).

  262. Stu says:

    ChiFi:

    Just stating an opinion. Value it as you may, but I have not met your wife.

    Really ;)

  263. SC says:

    Does anyone here know the best way to get NJ foreclosure information? I expect a lot over the next 1-2 years.

  264. Confused In NJ says:

    After my first grandchild came along, we happened to take my Son and daughter inlaw out to dinner one night. They were a typical two income family, using a Childcare agency for the first wee one. My son started bemoaning the high cost of childcare at the table. I listened politely, and when he was finished asked him, son did you really think your mother staying home for sixteen years was free? No answer. When number two came along, coincident with wifes layoff, he became a one income family with an at home college educated wife. To this day they said it was better, after first hand experience with both. The main benefactors of two income families was the Government who pushed for it. The only two income families who benefitted from extra income were the original ones who existed in a one income society. Two income societies require twice the effort for the same purchasing power of the one income society.

  265. zieba says:

    RE: 241

    Some have been taking it up the SRS poop chute for quite a while now. I opened positions in SRS @ 53 today and QID @ 51 and am kvetchin’ already.

  266. Clotpoll says:

    zieba (274)-

    If you’re the skittish type, SRS is not the place for you.

    May I suggest sedatives or heavy drinking?

  267. Stu says:

    About the rash of recent suicides. Is money, or the sudden loss of a lot of it worth taking your life? Perhaps if you blew someone elses wad, I could see how the guilt could be immeasurable. If it was simply my hard-earned dough that was lost, I would probably just start over very simply. Maybe apprentice in a physical trade to lose some weight.

  268. SG says:

    Former housing industry economist who famously said there was no housing bubble now admits he was wrong

    David Lereah, the National Association of Realtors’ former chief economist who famously denied that the housing bubble existed even as it started to pop, is finally admitting that he was wrong.

    Lereah, whose book “Why the Real Estate Boom Will not Bust and How You Can Profit From it” was published in February 2006 just before the bubble went bust, suggests in a new Money Magazine interview that his rosy outlook might have had something to do with his position as top spokesman for the Realtors. Lereah, now a private real estate consultant, says he’s bearish about the housing market and has been for a year and a half.

    “I worked for an association promoting housing, and it was my job to represent their interests,” Lereah said. “If you look at my actual forecasts, the numbers were right in line with most forecasts. The difference was that I put a positive spin on it.”

  269. Stu says:

    Zieba,

    Welcome to the party. Getting in is so easy. Holding through the massive volatility is a whole other story! I suffered 75% losses to achieve some 200% gains in this bad boy. You must be able stomach paper gains. I don’t know how anyone can stomach the 3 times funds!

  270. hoodafa says:

    The ‘McMansion’ trend in housing is slowing

    Atlanta – Complete with an Oval Office and Lincoln Bedroom, the Atlanta White House became a symbol of developers reshaping the urban landscape by tearing down modest ranches and bungalows and plopping McMansions in their place.

    The religiously themed mini-White House – which required the razing of three brick ranches – is now up for sale, facing foreclosure this week if the builder, an Iranian-born entrepreneur, can’t get a $9.88 million selling price.

    New York finance blogger Rolfe Winkler calls it a “delicious story” rife with symbolism about overheated real estate and leveraged dreams that sparked the biggest national real estate slump since the Great Depression.

    But the plight of this White House also marks a major shift in the transformation of American neighborhoods – perhaps the end of the McMansion era. Indeed, it may allow thousands of communities from Pasadena to Pittsburgh to more accurately balance the living requirements of modern Americans with a widespread desire to maintain older neighborhoods.

    More at: http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20090106/ts_csm/amcmansions

  271. Stu says:

    “You must be able stomach paper gain”

    Should have been losses!

  272. The Kid says:

    The Kid likes this third person change in posts.

  273. Stu says:

    The Dow looks sticky at 9,000. No?

  274. Sean says:

    re: #276 Stu – “fear of losing money”

    That is not it my friend, simply put there is no honor amongst thieves. Those that should be putting the bullet in their head or slitting their wrists or standing in front of trains will never do it, they weren’t honorable men and women to begin with.

    Little Pic to go with the theme.

    http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3288/2904380690_83e586506c.jpg?v=0

  275. still_looking says:

    [snip] Obama met Monday with congressional leaders to seek backing for his economic plan. It could cost $775 billion over two years, his advisers say, though they say they think add-ons by lawmakers could raise the price to $850 billion. [snip]

    link:
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28525113

    Um… where’s this money coming from? Aren’t still as yet on the hook for the past 700 Billion Buck tab??

    Really. Is this really the panacea??

    sl

  276. Sean says:

    From the UK.

    If you don’t eat yer meat, you can’t have any pudding. How can you have any pudding if you don’t eat yer meat?

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/06/business/credit.php

  277. NJGator says:

    You asked for change, here’s your change:

    Ob*ma Wants Journalist Gupta for Surgeon General

    President-elect Bar*ck Ob*ma has offered the job of surgeon general to Dr. Sanjay Gupta, the neurosurgeon and correspondent for CNN and CBS, according to two sources with knowledge of the situation.

    Gupta has told administration officials that he wants the job, and the final vetting process is under way. He has asked for a few days to figure out the financial and logistical details of moving his family from Atlanta to Washington but is expected to accept the offer.

    When reached for comment today, Gupta did not deny the account but declined to comment.

    The offer followed a two-hour Chicago meeting in November with Ob*ma, who said that Gupta could be the highest-profile surgeon general in history and would have an expanded role in providing health policy advice, the sources said. Gupta later spoke with Tom Daschle, Ob*ma’s White House health czar and nominee for Health and Human Services secretary, and other advisers to the president-elect.

    The Michigan-born son of Indian and Pakistani parents, Gupta has always been drawn to health policy. He was a White House fellow in the late 1990s, writing speeches and crafting policy for Hillary Clinton. His appointment would give the administration a prominent official of Southwest Asian descent and a skilled television spokesman.

    Gupta, who hosts “House Call” on CNN, has discussed the job offer with his bosses at CBS and CNN to make sure he could be released from his contractual obligations, the sources said.

    His role as journalist and physician have sometimes overlapped. During the 2003 Iraq invasion, Gupta was embedded with a Navy unit called Devil Docs and, while covering its mission, performed brain surgery five times, the first of which was on a 2-year-old Iraqi boy.

    Gupta’s only hesitation in taking the post is said to involve the financial impact on his pregnant wife and two children if he gives up his lucrative medical and journalistic careers. But he is expected to accept the position within days.

    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2009/01/06/ob*ma_wants_journalist_for_sur.html?nav=rss_email%2Fcomponents

  278. Barbara says:

    257. Skeptic
    I’m not surprised by any of it. I don’t like the idea of the lone freak/stranger having so much access and control over my kids and household.
    I think the Nanny thing is a status symbol because I do not see how intelligent people could not see that it is better to have many eyes policing the situation than just one pair.

  279. zieba says:

    stu/clot:

    I kid, I kid. I thrive on this stuff.

    Check out the weekly on FAF:

    http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?faf

  280. Victorian says:

    sl (284) –

    “Um… where’s this money coming from?”

    – Bernanke’s printing press.

  281. Sean says:

    re# (284) – SL

    “Um… where’s this money coming from?”

    Today possibly your 401k or pension fund, and if not today your grandkids’ earnings.

    Now you must choose the red pill or the blue pill….

  282. All Hype says:

    Bernanke’s printing press.

    Deflation is currently pitching and getting lit up like a Christmmas tree. Inflation is warming up in the bullpen and he is throwing at 130 mph.

  283. Sean says:

    Nice litte write up to share with friends on the Madoff Hearings at the House Financial Services Committee yesterday.

    The guy COX put up there from the SEC had less experience than Cash n Carry has as the Treasury. H. David Kotz, the Inspector General of the SEC was working for the the Peace Corps.

    http://www.counterpunch.org/martens01062009.html

  284. John says:

    Thanks for that site!

    Sean says:
    January 6, 2009 at 3:33 pm

    re: #260 – yesterdays trade data here, that bond is red flagged.

    http://municipalbonds.com/redflag/flag20090105.html

    927676-MZ-6 VIRGIN ISLANDS PUB FIN AUTH REV GROSS RCPTS TAXES LN NTS 5.000 10/01/2028 72.519 / 74.452 5 50

  285. jamil says:

    “I wonder what are their estimates are based on?
    http://www.quantcast.com/njrereport.com

    This is based on your browsing history (ie cookies). This probably works reliably only for the sites they are affiliated with. So, if you have visited CNN Money and NBA.com (which are probably pre-classified already) and then you arrive at this site, it is pretty easy to approximate much about your personal interests.

  286. Shore Guy says:

    ” 19 yr old au pair dresses very provacatively culminating in wearing miniskirt and fishnets”

    This sounds like it would make a killer movie pitch.

  287. John says:

    Yea but that site thinks above 100K is rich.

  288. Clotpoll says:

    stu (278)-

    The managers of the 3x short funds must be geniuses to handle all the derivatives trading necessary to make the issues track properly.

  289. jmacdaddio says:

    I hope everyone had a good holiday! I’ve been going on record stating that the “new” frugality will pass as soon as the easy money returns.

    I’m wondering what will happen to 2009-2012 college gradutes when they realize they can’t take their BA in American Studies to NYC and make a 6 figure bonus working for a hedge fund anymore, and they still have all those iPods and lattes to pay for.

    Has anyone else had trouble looking up property transactions on nj.com or mycentraljersey? Neither site appears to be working as it should.

  290. still_looking says:

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28512318/?GT1=43001

    future NJrereport visitor….

    JACKSON, Ohio – Police say a 4-year-old boy in southern Ohio shot his babysitter because the sitter accidentally stepped on his foot. Police said 18-year-old Nathan Beavers and several other teenagers were babysitting several young children in a mobile home in Jackson on Sunday when the shooting occurred.

    sl

  291. Al says:

    Hey I need an explanation… Why would non-paved piece of land in Metuchen, not close to the train station be 2500/month rent (3000$ with taxes)??

    What possible buisness use can it have to bring 4000$/month ??? I just do not see it.. I guess thats why I am not warren Buffet, bet hey – he is not renting it either….

    It is not like you can place offices there…. Or woudl you even buid anything there – if you are leasing it anyways. I guess temporary structure, but would not you just look for a cheaper place anyways??? Will be interesting to see…

    283 CENTRAL AV Metuchen, NJ 08840, MLS ID #815226

    Talking about land bubble….

  292. Essex says:

    Austerity is tough to stomach sometimes…but we all know that the media drives fashion and this is what is ‘in’ this year….as for me…I say….screw it!! Live like there is no tomorrow….

  293. Al says:

    What possible buisness use can it have to bring 4000$/month ??? I just do not see it.. I guess thats why I am not warren Buffet, bet hey – he is not renting it either….

    I have to add – what LEGAL buisness use…

  294. NJCoast says:

    jmac- Monmouth County MLS has had glitches today too.

    ChiFi- Closed out all our TBT positions today for a tidy profit but told DH to step away the craps table. I don’t have the stomach for it. All disclaimers.

    John- After living in the US Virgin Islands as a kid and still having lots of family there- I would not invest in anything their gov’t has to offer. Things are disintergrating down there. My sister manages a mall on St. Thomas- used to be getting the cows out of the parking lot was the worst of her job. Last month 2 people were shot in the parking lot. Not good.

  295. Clotpoll says:

    For anyone who missed this in December: Elizabeth Warren, chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel (these are the guys who are watching where the TARP money goes).

    The really chilling stuff starts at around 18:30 of the interview.

    The COP is supposed to issue monthly reports. The next one is due 1/10. Should be a real doozie.

    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=98123372

  296. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    January 6, 2009 at 5:03 pm
    stu (278)-

    The managers of the 3x short funds must be geniuses to handle all the derivatives trading necessary to make the issues track properly.

    I’m sure it is an automated algorithm

  297. Shore Guy says:

    “JACKSON, Ohio ”

    I wonder if he would have shot if she had been wearing fishnets and a mini-skirt?

  298. Yikes says:

    PGC says:
    January 6, 2009 at 10:08 am

    Yikes,

    When we sold the buyer sent us a redacted copy of an inspection report with the material defects. As the agent was representing both sides I asked her for a full copy of the report. Representing both sides means that the agent does not have to offer up anything, but if the agent gets a direct request, I think at that point they are legally required to give it up. When we got the full report, they had redacted comments such as “This unit is in exceptional condition”

    Good stuff. i wonder if ours will be contentious. we only asked them to fix items deemed “major,” even though i would assumed that these major items total less than $1500, max.

    their agent told our agent that the wife is more likely to agree than the husband. but their agent also told our agent that the wife is driving their purchase of the short sale, and the husband is content on staying in the home.

    i wonder if they’ll think that since we ‘beat’ them down in price (65k off their asking), they may be less reluctant to play ball.

    we’ll see.

  299. Clotpoll says:

    chi (306)-

    Yeah, but they can’t throw any of these leveraged inverse ETFs on autopilot. Too many issues flow from distributions & responsibilities for dividends to the longs which seem to appear at times.

    It seems as though all the inverse ETFs have some inherent tracking issues that require human intervention. In addition, I cannot imagine the havoc this fall’s short-selling ban must have caused.

  300. Essex says:

    305…thanks…great interview.
    I like her…but man alive….how long before the government takes action here?

  301. comrade nom deplume says:

    [287] Barbara,

    Status? I have an au pair, and it isn’t for status. Personally, I would just as soon not part with the money or have my child raised in part by a stranger, but that is the most flexible and economical option.

    Do I worry? Hell yes, but I have done what I can to insure as much supervision as possible.

    Find me some reasonably-priced, flexible after-school care and I’m there. I haven’t found it yet.

  302. Clotpoll says:

    sx (309)-

    The only meaningful action the gubmint should’ve taken is to prevent Klink and his band of crooks from looting the public treasury and letting the banking thieves steal it all.

    Now, all that money is gone for good. It’s been stolen, and it won’t be returned.

    I like Elizabeth Warren a lot, but I fear the UST & Fed machine will chew her up and spit her out. Let’s see how politic she is after 3-4 months pass.

  303. Clotpoll says:

    In about 3-4 months, the TARP won’t even be on the public radar. I think by Summer, the realization that we are entering a full-blown depression will be front and center.

  304. Clotpoll says:

    plume (311)-

    “Find me some reasonably-priced, flexible after-school care and I’m there. I haven’t found it yet.”

    Ha! That’s a good one. The powers that be view kids as a social and financial liability. In addition, children have no lobby…therefore, no way to accrue power and influence through bribery.

  305. Sean says:

    Clot – Equifax says Half of Premier League clubs are “insolvent”

    http://fourfourtwo.com/news/england/23106/default.aspx

  306. NJGator says:

    Nom 311 – Solution found. Stu can be your aftercare in exchange for the room and board (Coastline Cabernet).

  307. Clotpoll says:

    My Geordies have pulled off the trifecta of insolvency:

    1. On the pitch: mostly a disgusting show of how you can take a bunch of players from all over the world and teach them how to play the worst possible style of English football.

    2. Off the pitch: a drunken, beer-swilling owner who simultaneously panders to- and insults- his paying customers. Good move, especially when you’re half-broke and your team’s most exciting part of each season is the battle to avoid the drop.

    3. Name sponsor: Northern Rock. Assured a place in history as the bank who brought back the bank run. Toon could put the GM logo on their kits, and it would be an upgrade.

  308. Clotpoll says:

    Pity:

    Chelsea’s billionaire owner Roman Abramovich has been toppled from the summit of the Football Rich List, published on Wednesday in the new issue of FourFourTwo magazine.

    Abramovich has lost £3bn in the recession and is now worth £7bn. That’s less than half the wealth of the new man at the top of the list, Manchester City owner Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al Nahyan, who is estimated to be worth £15bn.

    The people on the sixth Football Rich List, researched and published annually by FourFourTwo, are worth a total of £61billion. The list includes 11 billionaires and 25 new entries.

    Although some of the new entries are foreign – like Sheikh Mansour and the new No.2 Lakshmi Mittal, who has joined Formula 1 entrepreneurs Bernie Ecclestone and Flavio Briatore in investing in QPR – only a third of those on the list are from overseas, with the 64 Brits including three WAGs.

    The Top 20 on the Football Rich List are:

    1. Shekh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nayan (Manchester City) £15bn

    2. Lakshmi Mittal & family (QPR) £12.5bn
    3. Roman Abramovich (Chelsea) £7bn 

    4. Joe Lewis (Tottenham Hotspur) £2.5bn

    5. Bernie & Slavica Ecclestone (QPR) £2.4bn
    6. Stanley Kroenke (Arsenal) £2.245bn

    7. Alisher Usmanov (Arsenal) £1.5bn

    8= Lord Grantchester & The Moores Family (Everton) £1.2bn

    8= Dermot Desmond (Celtic) £1.2bn

    10= Lord Ashcroft (Watford) £1.1bn

    10= Malcolm Glazer & family (Manchester United) £1.1bn

    12. Simon Keswick (Cheltenham Town) £966m 

    13. Trevor Hemmings (Preston North End) £900m

    14. Mike Ashley (Newcastle United) £800m

    15. Randy Lerner (Aston Villa) £750m

    16. Tom Hicks (Liverpool) £700m
    17. The Walker Family (Blackburn Rovers) £660m
    18. Mohammed al-Fayed (Fulham) £650m

    19. Sir David Murray (Glasgow Rangers) £600m

    20. Steve Morgan (Wolves) £400m


    The new England manager Fabio Capello is also a new entry worth an estimated £25m with a £6m a year contract and a £10m private art collection and Sir Elton John – who has rekindled his interest in Watford – is a new entry at No.28 with a £235m fortune.

    However, Sir Elton may not have chosen a wise time to get back in the game. The recession may not have hurt football yet, but financial expert Professor Tom Cannon thinks clubs will soon start feeling the pinch.

    “Season tickets will probably be down by about 10 percent but renewals will be down by at least 15 or 20 percent,” said Professor Cannon. “That’s where the problems will be as you go down the divisions.”

    And FourFourTwo Editor-in-Chief Hugh Sleight is similarly worried about football’s financial future. “Judging by this list, football is the last remaining financial bubble,” he said. “The combined wealth of our Top 100 is now £61 billion, compared with £41.7 billion last year and £20.45 billion in the first-ever Football Rich List in 2003. 


    
“We’ve also got 25 new entries in the 100, primarily because of the continued rush to invest in British football over the last 12 months. 



    “But the landscape has already changed dramatically because of the recession. As Arsene Wenger rightly pointed out, football will suffer just like any other industry.

    “So far there seems to be a time lag but as economic conditions continue to bite, clubs and owners will feel the effect and it will then be interesting to see the reactions of these very wealthy men as they see their fortunes disappearing. In 12 months’ time, this list could look very different indeed.”

  309. jamil says:

    bernie & slavica e? Wasn’t bernie caught and filmed in some $ex-orgy with 4 prostitutes dressed in nazi-uniforms?

  310. Yikes says:

    just got a note from wells – 4.85 mortgage rate on a 30 year fixed.

    very tempting to lock in, esp considering they last week that rates pinged up a notch to 5.1

  311. schlivo says:

    Doyle says:
    January 6, 2009 at 2:21 pm
    Please don’t start this daycare / stay-at-home debate, it never ends well. Agree to disagree.

    Amen! Please?

  312. Essex says:

    322…Amen…Let’s talk about BMWs again….(joking)

  313. kettle1 says:

    hype 291

    Deflation is currently pitching and getting lit up like a Christmas tree. Inflation is warming up in the bullpen and he is throwing at 130 mph.

    Not quite yet. deflation has a good 2 years left on it yet the way things are currently going, including the printing press.

    all of that hot cash off the printing press is being locked up in bank vaults as they try to stay afloat while their worthless assets continue to be worthless.

  314. PGC says:

    #319 Jamil

    That was Max Mosley head of the FIA. He is not denying the 0rgy, but disputing the content. I think he is also suing newspapers for libel over the reports.

  315. kettle1 says:

    PGC,

    the newspaper lost the court case.

    “World motorsport boss Max Mosley has won a legal action against a Sunday newspaper over claims an orgy he took part in had Nazi overtones.

    The High Court ruled the News of the World did breach Mr Mosley’s privacy, awarding him £60,000 in damages.”

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7523034.stm

  316. PGC says:

    Every guy has to bow down to Bernie Ecclestone.

    He may look like a Mini Me version of Andy Warhol, but he owns the rights to the best motor sport in the world and he married well.

    http://static.richardyoungonline.com/photos/10701_large.jpg

  317. Essex says:

    326….sorry…but to be that short would be living hell…no matter what the gold digger on my arm looked like.

  318. Yikes says:

    John says:
    January 6, 2009 at 5:02 pm

    Yea but that site thinks above 100K is rich.

    starting around 60k, i dont think it is necessarily HOW much you make, but HOW you spend/save it.

    i lived in NYC for about 5 years making between 40k-60k. one huge key was ditching the car and car insurance. also key: being frugal. you have to be.

    you can make 200k but if you spend like a fool, you could be worth less than a guy who makes 100k but invests and is frugal.

    hence: yes, i think 100k puts you in the ‘should be in really, really good shape’ category’

    * as i have no kids, this is not factoring in kids

  319. Confused In NJ says:

    313.Clotpoll says:
    January 6, 2009 at 7:08 pm
    In about 3-4 months, the TARP won’t even be on the public radar. I think by Summer, the realization that we are entering a full-blown depression will be front and center.

    Sad, but likely true. Country is in for 10+ years of hard times, to pay for for excesses of Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton & Bush. Talk about BiPartisan Failure. Guess we were doomed when Eisenhower left office. Interesting Obama wants to rebuild Ike’s Highways, as a start. Too bad he’s broke, Ike wasn’t. Too bad the materials for the rebuilding will come from foreign factories under Obama, versus domestic factories under Ike. Too bad the highways will be used by foreign terrorists under BO, versus US military under Ike. Sad.

  320. Stu says:

    Yikes, I just checked the WellsFargo site and the rate you posted requires you purchase 1 point. You sure they are quoting you apples for apples?

  321. Essex says:

    328…I dunno bro…I am amazed at how quickly the money goes once you have a child…..and a house…etc….$100k is barely a living wage around here.

  322. still_looking says:

    PGC 326

    How do you know he’s short? Maybe she is a 6’5″ Amazonian in heels?

    …let’s forget height. He’s hideous. He looks like a pickled tribble.

    sl

  323. Essex says:

    Meh….either way…I haven’t lusted after anyone’s lady since….well….yesterday.

  324. Sybarite says:

    “Essex says:
    January 6, 2009 at 8:49 pm
    328…I dunno bro…I am amazed at how quickly the money goes once you have a child…..and a house…etc….$100k is barely a living wage around here.”

    I think I have the explanation:

    “Essex says:
    January 6, 2009 at 5:56 pm
    Austerity is tough to stomach sometimes…but we all know that the media drives fashion and this is what is ‘in’ this year….as for me…I say….screw it!! Live like there is no tomorrow….”

  325. alia says:

    this makes me absurdly happy:
    http://www.hiddenpassageway.com/

  326. Essex says:

    335….Heh heh heh….yeah…I know…*Sigh*

  327. still_looking says:

    Stu 333

    ugh… that is not hot!

    sl

  328. NJGator says:

    Can someone with GSMLS access tell me the details behind 2544048 (167 Claremont) in Montclair? This is a multi that sold in 2006 for $700k, is assessed at $687k, yet listed in 2008 for $329k and sold in Aug 08 for $330k. Just wondering what went horribly wrong with the place in the interim.

    Thanks.

  329. sas says:

    “nanny experiences”

    Juanita is the best.
    you wanna a good nanny or a helper.
    you just gotta pay up!

    I can’t go one day w/out Juanita.

    SAS

  330. Essex says:

    240…Oh my eyes…it burns…it burns!

  331. sas says:

    “Argentina Is Short of Cash – Literally”
    http://tinyurl.com/7a4ae3

  332. Essex says:

    SAS…no more nanny talk…or you will be booted here….http://www.urbanbaby.com/

  333. NJGator says:

    Alcoa to Cut 13% of Work Force

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    Article Tools Sponsored By
    By JULIE CRESWELL
    Published: January 6, 2009

    Alcoa, one of the world’s largest aluminum makers, described plans on Tuesday to close plants and slash its work force in an effort to contend with the continued economic downturn.

    The 120-year-old company, which announced several cost-cutting moves last fall, said it now planned to reduce output by 18 percent this year. It also plans to cut its head count by 13,500 employees, or 13 percent, and expects to eliminate another 1,700 contractor positions.

    Like many other material producers, Alcoa has struggled to cope with the steep decline in demand for fabricated goods during this economic malaise.

    Aluminum prices, which rose sharply last summer, have since collapsed as aluminum consumption in crucial areas like automotive and consumer sectors has dropped sharply.

    Calling the moves “aggressive, but prudent,” Klaus Kleinfeld, the president and chief executive of Alcoa, said the moves were necessary for the firm to try to conserve cash and reduce costs.

    “These are extraordinary times, requiring speed and decisiveness to address the current economic downturn, and flexibility and foresight to be prepared for future uncertainties in our markets,” Mr. Kleinfeld said.

    Alcoa said it also planned to sell several unprofitable business lines and was stopping all “noncritical” capital investment programs to try to conserve cash. It is freezing all hiring and salaries through 2009, the firm said.

    While the company said its cost-cutting programs could save it approximately $450 million a year before taxes, total charges for the fourth quarter of last year are likely to be $900 million to $950 million, or $1.13 to $1.19 a share.

    Some Wall Street analysts, however, questioned whether the moves would be enough.

    “I would have liked to see a little bit bigger cut in smelter output and a little bit bigger cut in capital spending, and I’m not sure they can sell the assets they want to sell,” said Charles Bradford, an analyst with Bradford Research. “People just don’t have a lot of money to buy those assets these days. I’m not so sure how much of this is going to get done.”

    After ending the day up 26 cents at $12.12, Alcoa’s stock was trading down 42 cents, at $11.70, in after-hours trading.

    Many of the world’s largest aluminum makers — including the Aluminum Corporation of China — have announced plans to reduce capacity. The hope is that if output is sharply reduced, the price of aluminum will rise above current levels.

    But many Wall Street analysts say despite the fact that falling energy and freight prices are helping aluminum makers, it is tough for Alcoa and its competitors to make money with aluminum prices at such low levels.

    It has been a challenging time for Mr. Kleinfeld, who took over the reins of Alcoa last spring from its longtime chief executive, Alain J. P. Belda. Before joining Alcoa as its president, Mr. Kleinfeld headed up the electronics and industrial conglomerate Siemens.

    In a conference call with analysts last October, Mr. Kleinfeld estimated at that time that one-third of the world’s aluminum capacity was “under water.”

    As prices continued to fall and inventories rose, analysts at Credit Suisse in December estimated that one-half of the aluminum industry was “losing money at current prices.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/07/business/07alcoa.html?_r=1&hp

  334. sas says:

    Juanita is my Alfred Pennyworth.

    you’d shit your pants if you knew what she knows :)

    SAS

  335. Essex says:

    SAS….I am a fan of the old saying…Ignorance Is Bliss. Never more so than in this day and age.

  336. sas says:

    “Ignorance Is Bliss”

    wish i could say that….wish i could.
    but i crossed that line of no return many years ago. oh well.
    :)
    SAS

  337. sas says:

    My FedEx carrier says they are really cutting hours, but no layoffs.

    I think the guys that drive truck get paid by the hour.

    SAS

  338. Essex says:

    349…Ah good SAS….they make meds for that.

  339. Essex says:

    FedEx was toast when they bought kinkos.

  340. Yikes says:

    Stu – email from our lender (guy pushing really hard for it) at 730, 4.85, no points. didnt talk to him on the phone, but i’ll triple check that no points are involved.

    all of that hot cash off the printing press is being locked up in bank vaults as they try to stay afloat while their worthless assets continue to be worthless.

    how long you figure this lasts? and why?

  341. still_looking says:

    Essex 343

    …sorry… :P

    sl

  342. chicagofinance says:

    WSJ
    By ANJALI ATHAVALEY

    For years, noisy — and pollution-spewing — leaf blowers have served as a source of morning aggravation and have spawned endless quarrels among neighbors. But now, in response to a flurry of new ordinances restricting the gadgets’ use, leaf-blower makers are bringing out quieter and more fuel-efficient models.

    Manufacturers are introducing blowers that operate at noise levels between 65 and 70 decibels as opposed to older models that operate at 70 decibels or higher. They are also rolling out products with lower emissions to comply with new federal standards. Last fall, the Environmental Protection Agency adopted new emissions limits for small non-road engines — which include leaf blowers — that it says will reduce emissions of volatile organic compounds that contribute to air pollution by 34% by 2030.

    Christoph HitzIn January, Shindaiwa Inc. plans to release its EB8520RT blower, which has a 65-decibel-level “hush mode” and which the company says is more fuel efficient than older models. Last summer, Echo Inc. released its PB-255 leaf blower, which operates at 65 decibels. Husqvarna Professional Products Inc. came out with a new version of its 356BT backpack blower in 2007, which operates at 64 decibels and has lower emissions than previous models. (Husqvarna says that 70 decibels is about as loud as when a bus or car drives close by.)

    Consumers may pay a premium for quieter models. For instance, the Husqvarna blower costs $470, whereas a comparable blower offered by the same manufacturer with a 74-decibel level costs $400. (The manufacturer attributes some of the cost difference to the design of the 356BT model.)

    The new models seem to be spurring sales. Sales of leaf blowers have increased in recent years, according to a report by market research firm Mintel International. Combined, hand-held and backpack blowers accounted for over 2.8 million shipments in 2007 — the latest data available — up from 2.3 million in 2002. The report says that ownership of leaf blowers is highest in the Midwestern and Southern regions of the country.

    In the Northeast, the season for leaf blowers is over, but in warmer climates in the South and on the West coast, they are used year-round. People even use them on light snow, manufacturers say.

    Environmental groups argue that even blowers that have lower emissions still contribute to the production of ozone and that people who use leaf blowers can accomplish most of the same tasks with a rake. But lawn enthusiasts, manufacturers and landscapers say that the devices save time and human effort. “One of the reasons they sell so well is because they are very effective,” says Kris Kiser, spokesman for the Outdoor Power Equipment Institute, a manufacturers’ trade group in Alexandria, Va.

    People who use leaf blowers regularly on their own lawns say they notice the difference in noise level with the newer models — but they still have to be careful not to bother the neighbors. Todd Provence, of Redding, Calif., bought a new Husqvarna model in 2007. “This is definitely quieter,” says Mr. Provence. He says he uses the blower both for leaves and to clear the sidewalk after he mows his lawn.

    But since he lives in a cul-de-sac, certain leaf-blower etiquette still has to be observed. “When you are using power tools in a neighborhood like the one we live in, you definitely don’t get up at five in the morning and gas it up,” he says.

    In the Northeast in 2008, cities including Yonkers, N.Y., and Rye, N.Y., citing noise and environmental concerns, banned leaf blowers for certain months out of the year and set noise limits for the machines. Such ordinances have already proliferated in other parts of the country such as California. The landscape contractors association says 27 cities in the state — including Los Angeles, Palo Alto and Menlo Park — have passed leaf-blower bans or restrictions.

    Some organizations are encouraging residents to buy the newer, more fuel-efficient models. For instance, South Coast Air Quality Management District, an agency that regulates air pollution in parts of Southern California, runs an annual program that allows landscapers to exchange up to 10 older gas-powered leaf blowers for new models with lower emissions for a fee of just $200 per blower.

    Noisy — and polluting — leaf blowers can cause conflict among neighbors. “Kids are breathing in blower exhaust constantly because they are everywhere you go,” says Molly Roffman, 47, a Yonkers resident with two children.

    The problem is worse in the summer when children are at home during the day, says Ms. Roffman, who brought the issue to the attention of a city council member. Yonkers passed an ordinance in January of last year banning leaf blowers from June through September of each year.

    Some health experts also say leaf blowers can cause medical issues. Leaf blowers are not among the largest sources of particle pollution, says Janice Nolen, assistant vice president for national policy and advocacy at the American Lung Association. But they can leak gases that combine to produce ozone. That can especially affect children and people with respiratory problems. Kids are more likely to be affected by high ozone levels because “they have higher respiratory rates than adults,” says Sheila Palevsky, president of a New York chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics. “Kids who have asthma or reactive airway disease are going to have more respiratory tract irritation, which results in wheezing.”

    Landscapers, however, say bans will cost them time and money. The devices “save enormous amounts of time,” says Larry Rohlfes, assistant executive director of the California Landscape Contractors Association. “Most landscape-industry estimates suggest it takes five times as long to do the job with a rake.”

    Critics of leaf-blower bans also point out that enforcement is tricky. Many cities enforce the ordinances through a complaint system, but by the time an officer arrives at the scene, the perpetrator has often packed up and left. In Palo Alto, enforcing the leaf-blower ban is “not the highest priority for the city,” says Mayor Larry Klein. “The city could never hire enough people to be checking every gardener in town.”

    Chuck Lesnick, the city council president in Yonkers, says when he sees someone violating the city’s new summer leaf-blower ban, he has “stopped and pulled over and handed them a piece of paper in English and Spanish that says what the law is.” Still, enforcing the ban isn’t a police priority, he says. “We do have crime problems,” Mr. Lesnick says. “We are not going to dispatch our police to enforce this stuff.”

  343. comrade nom deplume says:

    [353] stu,

    You’re welcome.

  344. TriardtaR says:

    I think you are thinking like sukrat, but I think you should cover the other side of the topic in the post too…

  345. Enlargement says:

    I am amazed with it. It is a good thing for my research. Thanks

  346. Jane Seymour says:

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