Preliminary December sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey (GSMLS) is in. Please note that this data is subject to revision.
The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 500, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.
(click to enlarge)
The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.
(click to enlarge)
The third graph displays only December sales, 2001 to 2008 YOY.
(click to enlarge)
The fourth graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2008.
(click to enlarge)
The fifth graph displays the year over year change in inventory on a month by month basis.
(click to enlarge)
The sixth graph displays the year over year change in sales on a month by month basis.
(click to enlarge)
The last graph displays the absorption rate (not seasonally adjusted), in months:
(click to enlarge)
Bonus Graphs!
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
first
[126] prior thread
RE:
Best laugh I had in awhile. Thanks.
And how come Essex makes the list and I don’t?
(back in the 70’s, it was considered a status symbol to be on Nixon’s “Enemies List.” I think we found our 2009 equivalent).
Last January, initial results of a study called ENHANCE showed Vytorin was no better than Zocor at reducing plaque buildup in neck arteries — indicating Zetia gave no added benefit over Zocor. That led several prominent doctors to urge patients to abandon Vytorin in favor of older cholesterol drugs with a longer track record. Sales of both Vytorin and Zetia began falling almost immediately as a result.
On Thursday, FDA said it had completed its review of the final report on the study. The agency said results showed that after two years of treatment, even though there was no difference in the thickness of plaque in the carotid artery in patient groups that got either Vytorin or Zocor, there was a significant difference in cholesterol levels.
Those in the Vytorin groups saw their level of bad, or LDL cholesterol, fall by 56 percent, versus a 39 percent drop in the Zocor group, FDA wrote in a statement.
So the FDA decided that even though both classes of Statins failed to achieve their stated Goal, both should still be taken because they reduce the Cholesterol. which evidently has nothing to do with the stated goal. Who paid these Bozo’s off?
What about me tardburglar? I feel left out. :(
So ends twelve entire months of suck.
No one should buy anything they don’t need right now. The collapse of ’09 is coming Feb-March.
confused (3)-
Eat a bunch of fatty, chemical-laden garbage your entire life. Wash it down with Scotch, and sit on your fat, lard ass every night, watching Wheel of Fortune and Little House reruns. Don’t bother to even get your scurvy carcass around the corner under your own power, much less raise a sweat.
Then, when you hit late middle age and start falling apart, get yourself a script for one of these statins. Hey, they only cause fibromyalgia and muscle wasting; that’s not much of a price to pay for lowering your cholesterol 12 points. BTW, get yourself a script for Vi@gra, since without it, the only thing on you that’s hard will be your head.
Continue to sit on your ass for the 15 extra years of life you may have bought, then keel over.
Good times.
Star Dreck….The Wrath of Tard….coming soon to a theater near you.
Post #7 is in honor of Gary.
Yo re101
How come I’m not on your list? I thought we were bonding with all the pet names you’ve been giving me like “vulture” and “snake”.
amazing data as always.
key point for me are the absorbtion rate is now cleary going higher again. this is obviously due to the huge drop off in sales in the past few months. but if you look at the inventory chart, it looks like it is starting to turn up as well. I think this will be going up very steadily in the next 6 months while transaction volume will remain tepid.
I think we are shaping up for a massive inventory overhang in the coming months, and the new inventory will not be like the inventory wave that came in 2006.
Those people were trying to cash in a lottery ticket. the new wave of sellers will be considerably more motivated.
re101 – I am insulted as well, I thought my doom and gloom posts would have put me in the top five by now.
7. Clot
Sounds like a plan. But I prefer to reject the Josef Mengele School of Medicine. He was the Father of Chemotherapy in 1940’s Germany. The FDA is doing a good job following his playbook.
BC, are you boots on and laced up?
CBS is running a piece right now on Broadway, seems allot of the shows about half have shut down already and others are shutting down this week, best seats are going for $100. Go now while you still can if you like Broadway the old seedy 42nd st is coming back.
They brought real bull on NYSE today !!!
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45357000/jpg/_45357724_220-1400-ap-buckshot.jpg
Is Hunterdon still the slums?
We’re missing from the charts that say “North Jersey”, but south’er Somerset County is listed?
bas^ards.
It’s because we have no malls, right? I bet that’s it. Is it our lack of MALL-EE-NESS?
I really should include Hunterdon.
HA!
For some reason I keep getting GOP spam. Recently got an invitation to sign an electronic Thank You card to outgoing president. The thank you read:
You can even leave a special message. Something like “Thank you for having the decency to not nuke us.” seems appropriate.
http://net.gop.com/ThankYou/
Now I am glad I did not take the free Flu shot at work.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/08/america/09flu.php
Oh, and in the email they ask for donations. “$1,000, $500, $100, $50 or $25 will go a long way toward helping the RNC provide the support our Republican leaders need to fight the Democrats’ liberal agenda and prepare for the vital 2009-2010 elections.”
Seriously? They’re only asking for $1k as the top suggestion?
$250k/yr Joe the [insert occupation here] should be able to afford more than that.
Thought I put politics behind after the election. I just hate spam.
Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:
January 8, 2009 at 7:25 pm
Did I hear this stat correctly on Bloomberg Radio today?????
They said that 48% of Wal-Mart Gift Cards this holiday are being redeemed in WM’s grocery section!
Is it getting THAT difficult to put food on the table? Is Middle America really having to stretch to get from paycheck to paycheck??
My Goodness….that’s scary.
I heard this in the car this afternoon and googled it when I got home, but could find no reference to it.
apparently yes:
“More than half of all New Yorkers had trouble affording adequate food in 2008.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Food-Poverty-NYC-Soars-Recession/story.aspx?guid={92BC8B09-5DAB-47E6-BF6B-C6FD277EAA67}
also
Food Pantries relying on FEMA aid: ww.duluthnewstribune.com/event/article/id/108982/
The cost of child poverty in the Recession (to add to other unfunded mandates): ww.marketwatch.com/news/story/Recession-Induced-Child-Poverty-Co…
Shelters are struggling accomodate rising number of homeless families:
Obama transition team wants the analog to digital television conversion put off.
http://www.broadcastingcable.com/contents/pdf/Podesta%20DTV%20Letter.pdf
If TVs go dark 28 days after inauguration, no tellin’ what the masses might do. Bread and circuses have never been more important.
“Shelters are struggling accomodate rising number of homeless families”
As the homes they were kicked out of sit empty.
From the Philly Inquirer:
523,000 mortgages scheduled to reset in 2009
There are 523,000 adjustable prime mortgages set to adjust in 2009, and many of the indexes that determine their rates have been declining during the last few months.
The ARMs – 3/1 and 5/1 hybrids – were taken out during the housing-boom years of 2004 to 2006. Now, they are scheduled to do what adjustable-rate mortgages do.
This leaves these half-million homeowners with a critical question: Will the mortgage payments on these hybrids increase or decrease?
“These loans had introductory rates that lasted for three or five years; after that, the rates reset annually,” said Holden Lewis, a columnist for Bankrate.com. “The date of that first rate reset peaked in the summer of 2008, but about half a million prime borrowers will see their first reset in 2009.”
The half-million figure does not include option ARMs – mortgages with low introductory rates and a choice of monthly payments tailored to the borrower’s income.
According to Rick Sharga, chief economist of RealtyTrac Inc., the Irvine, Calif., firm that tracks foreclosure filings, between $60 billion and $70 billion of these “exotic” adjustables could reset earlier than anticipated because of home-price depreciation.
The scheduled 2010 reset of these loans might begin in April of this year “because of triggers in the mortgages that cause an automatic reset if the loan-to-value ratio hits 115 or 120 percent,” he said.
Since about 95 percent of these borrowers “have been paying the interest-only option or, worse, the negative-amortization option, their payments will go up as well, probably with disastrous results,” he said.
The half-million hybrid ARMs adjusting in 2009 do not include subprime loans, according to Lewis.
I haven’t been following the bankruptcy stuff deeply so I was surprised and disturbed when I found out today that bankruptcy judges already have the ability to modify mortgages.
Just not on the primary residence. So if you’re some guy with a beach house, you get a break. If you’re one of the many people in financial crisis and going to lose the roof over your head, tough luck.
Maybe I missed it but I haven’t seen it mentioned here.
What do you guys think this house is worth?
(Seriously)
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?mlslid=20900091&sid=247cc9b8cde34b9d962cf6c5af92810a&lid=1105682988&lsn=3&srcnt=7#Detail
(previous thread) i maintain that re101 is a person having a really good time playing a role they don’t really believe.
(re really previous thread), kettle: sorry i was cryptic with my v shapes and markets. :>
i meant: the people who cite the same reasonable historic precedents and current data points seem to also see hyperinflation as a real possibility. it also seems like the switch from deflation to inflation could come quickly and without much warning. (the “v shape” i was thinking of) i am looking for reasons deflation will be postponed for clues as to when inflation/hyperinflation will wipe out any value left in my down payment fund.
and by “market” i meant housing market. what we have left in the stock market hubby won’t let me take out. (he earns it, he gets veto power.) …if he still has a job in 6 months, maybe i’ll buy stocks. but maybe not. no idea at the moment.
sas: i believe you. but then, i also believed that “gullible” wasn’t in the dictionary both the first and second time someone told me it, so i admit to not being the most critical audience.
…but i hope i get points for at least being self aware of my limits.
28: $175k
Tom, ty.
I use my gift cards for the first thing that I can because I’m afraid that i will lose them. I would suspect that there are others like me. I’m sure that it’s the minority.
Nom,
hahahaha clotts dog ranked higher on Re’s list then you! ;)
————————–
RE101
only #2? what do i have to do to get #1? I dont think that there are any posters here who are as thoroughly gloomy and doomy as me.
———————————-
OHOHOHOHOH idea!
we should have ” i make RE101’s hit list” T shirts printed!
http://tinyurl.com/7xlc8x
just got back from sushi with some fund managers, pretty interesting night to kick off 09.
they think 09 will be sideways, oil back up, high inflation, think mutual fund are a rip off to the avg joe etc..etc..
SAS
just got back from sushi with some fund managers, pretty interesting night to kick off 09.
they think 09 will be sideways, oil back up, high inflation, think mutual fund are a rip off to the avg joe etc..etc..
SAS
alia,
the people who cite the same reasonable historic precedents and current data points seem to also see hyperinflation as a real possibility. it also seems like the switch from deflation to inflation could come quickly and without much warning. (the “v shape” i was thinking of) i am looking for reasons deflation will be postponed for clues as to when inflation/hyperinflation will wipe out any value left in my down payment fund.
hyperinflation is a very real possibility, but not until after deflation runs its course. I think it may be more of a U shape. but if that happens the upside will not be an improvement ( see wiemar republic or Zimbabwe)
there is alot more to it. will address the idea later. G nite
i just got wind that church burglaries are on the rise.
can anyone verify or second this?
SAS
what did i say?
“This is like an explosion that’s ripped a hole which the investigators are pouring through, and it probably just doesn’t relate to Madoff alone,” said Daniel Richman, a Columbia Law School professor and former federal prosecutor”
“Madoff Investigators Said to Be Challenged by Scheme”
http://tinyurl.com/89arwq
spam,
Forgot to add a disclaimer. I see a continued downward trend in house prices through next year at least so that factored into my estimate. I might be more aggressive than others too and I’m not familiar with that area.
But here’s what I see. Outdated kitchen. Maybe 70’s or earlier. THe entire layout of the ktchen seems very poor in general
Outdated paneling on the walls in the living room. That room also has drop ceilings. Drop ceiling in an upstairs living area makes me want to look behind it and see if there’s any damage on the ceiling. Most people don’t want their homes looking like offices.
Roof probably needs replacement and there are irregularities in it. See how it looks wavy. Could be that it wasn’t framed to code or has suffered damage.
Can’t really tell from the photo but it looks like there might be moss growing around the foundation. and the downspouts look like their not directed properly, but the photo is so small I can’t really tell. I’d check for musty smells in the basement and signs of water infiltration.
Nice sized property though. And they really cleaned up and took nice photos. If it’s in a nice area, people will probably be more interested in it for the property than the house.
New Jersey is on the cusp of a public pension crisis that could dwarf the $3.5 billion to $4 billion funding shortfall projected by Gov. Jon Corzine in October. Although the figures are obscured by current accounting rules, a detailed examination shows that New Jersey actually faces a potential $80 billion pension shortfall (not even counting the more than $20 billion in losses from the current stock market free-fall) and $50 billion in unfunded post-retirement medical and prescription drug benefits.
This total unfunded liability of $130 billion is more than four times the state’s 2008 fiscal year budget, and represents a shortfall of around $44,000 for every household in the state. It’s fair to conclude that sooner or later, someone — almost certainly the taxpayer — will be forced to shoulder this staggering fiscal burden.
http://tinyurl.com/7rlxh8
Can someone find me some information on the house address listed below? It was listed on the realtor website but is not there any more. Is in under contract? Thanks
9 Hidden Lake Dr
North Brunswick
NJ 08902
I didn’t forget you commie. You’re number 5.
comrade nom deplume says:
January 8, 2009 at 6:14 pm
[126] prior thread
RE:
Best laugh I had in awhile. Thanks.
And how come Essex makes the list and I don’t?
(back in the 70’s, it was considered a status symbol to be on Nixon’s “Enemies List.” I think we found our 2009 equivalent).
You’re too damn young to go on the list. Grow up and start shaving first.
Stu says:
January 8, 2009 at 6:28 pm
What about me tardburglar? I feel left out. :(
10. Barien Vulture Snake Cat
whats this list?
Apparently a list of people that re would like to date.
No one ever replaces Pat as # 1. I presume you’ve heard of the original gangsta–she’s the original r/e terrorist.
33
RE101
only #2? what do i have to do to get #1? I dont think that there are any posters here who are as thoroughly gloomy and doomy as me.
———————————-
OHOHOHOHOH idea!
we should have ” i make RE101’s hit list” T shirts printed!
yes, reinvestor101.
he is a funny guy.
SAS
28. Spam
nearly worthless imo. I don’t mean to exaggerate but it would have more value if someone left the wheels on it.
11. Sean
That does it. A complete list for now. Expect rendition shortly
vodka (33)-
I propose we have a Michael Vick Memorial GTG, where we put Tard (in a snug-fitting suit of meat) into the pit with my dog.
The only drinks served will be Everclear and Jager.
“What do you guys think this house is worth? (Seriously)”
nothing.
SAS
“What do you guys think this house is worth? (Seriously)”
you are better getting a “massage” for $300hr.
SAS
In 2010 BYOB will mean
BRING YOUR OWN BULLDOZER.
49: Barb
I don’t think it’s nearly worthless.
An empty lot is worth something.
This house, sadly, has been well loved and well cared for.
However, it was owned by a single elderly woman, which shows.
I think Tom nailed it. Whoever Tom is, he’s got an eye for what’s going on in the pics…
SAS:
So if you owned it, you’d just give it away?
I’m on re101’s top ten list. Yes!!
2009 is off to a great star for me!!!
#28 spam
I agree with Tom’s description.
“So if you owned it, you’d just give it away?”
i guess you got me on that one :)
maybe better off as a donation rather than a sale. i can’t see anyone buying that at that price, in the market, in this climate. I’m sure it would go at 170k
as for donation of houses. i have done that more than once in my life. it was so rewarding, couldn’t put a price on the joy it gave me.
and i will do it again, no doubt.
SAS
“However, it was owned by a single elderly woman, which shows.”
spam,
I was actually going to say that in my response. Well… possibly an older couple or widow to be exact. :)
But instead of deciding what a good price is for the house, you might want to consider if now is a good time to buy real estate in general. Like it says on that site, it’s not like we’re going to hit bottom one day and then the next house prices are going to skyrocket.
“you are better getting a “massage” for $300hr”
btw-thats black economy.
oh wait a minute, there is no such thing.
SAS your wrong.
SAS i don’t believe you..you ol’goat.
i guess all those posts on the craigs list don’t exist either?
SAS
“as for donation of houses. i have done that more than once in my life. it was so rewarding, couldn’t put a price on the joy it gave me.”
You don’t seem like the type of guy that needs to hear it but I thought I’d say it anyway. That’s awesome!
But it’s tempered by the notion of you as a guy that doesn’t need houses since you seem like some guy that’s lived in an underground bunker for the last 30 years, only coming out from time to time for clandestine missions on foreign soil. I might be confusing you with another person on here. I’m bad with names.
and you don’t think tht money trickles into the real & bubble economy??
ha ha ha
SAS
these boards are sure quiet at night.
let me guess, during the day, when people should be working, they are blogging.
and at night, they watch TV and goto bed by 9.30
and then, if you loose your job, you wonder why and blame it on the man?
or am i missing something?
SAS
40 Sas
This total unfunded liability of $130 billion is more than four times the state’s 2008 fiscal year budget, and represents a shortfall of around $44,000 for every household in the state. It’s fair to conclude that sooner or later, someone — almost certainly the taxpayer — will be forced to shoulder this staggering fiscal burden.
Not true. Actually the reverse, State needs to adopt Federal PBGC Limits and pay so many cents on the dollar, after declaring Pension Bankrupcy.
“or am i missing something?”
some options:
– people canceled their home internet accounts/mobile access to put food on the table.
– can’t browse the web from your second job at the drive thru window.
– busy packing before the sheriff’s deputies come
– already know we’re toast, no reason to keep dwelling on it
“after declaring Pension Bankrupcy”
you going to push that red button?
if so, sell it all first, then you better duck & cover.
:)
SAS
Had a closing yesterday. Buyer was a teacher. We were supposed to close a month ago, but she refused to close, breaching the contract. Thought she could sweat my seller for some more concessions. Once she got the idea- loud and clear- that my client was ready to sue her, she decided it might be a good idea to honor the contract. Dumb bitch.
While the closing was going along yesterday, I asked her what she’d do when the NJ Pension Fund went kaput. Really got under her skin. Best was when I asked her if she thought the guy who pulled the trigger on buying even more LEH as they were circling the drain was educated in NJ. Told her even a TN hick like me got taught young that you don’t buy loss.
Good times.
66: tom
You made me laugh.
Thanks.
Looking a little better for Gator right now.
I don’t really care about this game. Utah is the nat’l champ in my book. Ran the table and whacked Bama in what was virtually a home game for them.
Clotpoll,
i quit gambling along time ago.
i was in Vegas, i found that one of the tables was rigged. i kept it to myself.
this was in the late 70s, they since then cleaned up alot, but I don’t goto the tables (cause i know there is some funny stuff going on).
now, in Vegas, i just hang out, drink, chase women, and shoot the sh*t with people.
SAS
64: sas
I was tninking the same thing yesterday.
Even posted it…
I’m so bizzee at work I don’t get time to pee. (sometimes)
I had someone who worked for me who like to surf *a lot*…thought I wouldn’t notice. When her work was routinely slow, I watched the server activity….
2, 3 hours surfing while I was at clients, etc…
She’s surfing all day from home now.
Grim
73 in mod
My (old) accountant bought a house 4 years ago in Vegas and moved there.
Then quit accounting last year to start a party planning business.
I want to see how she’s doing, but I’m afraid to ask.
55. Spam,
are you familiar with Jackson, NJ?
I’d sooner hang myself but I’m sure someone would pay something for it, but a fraction of that ask.
Sorry.
Clot:
Congrats on the sale.
Doesn’t that automatically put you in an elite club or something?
Actually popping one off?
Barb:
Thanks.
I guess I have a strong will to live.
If I had to live there or hang myself, I’d be packing.
I’m a little familiar with Jackson. It’s a big town, though. Lots of places “off the grid”…
While I’m waiting to be released from the moderation penalty box, I’ll put up my last point for discussion.
“The big winner that I don’t think has been identified will be the likes of South Africa. They sit on enough Gold, diamonds, precious metals and a good arms trade, to ride out any storm.”
Anyone any thoughts or experiences?
Well, putting it up for the nite.
Have an architect meeting tomorrow where I learn how much MORE $$$ I’m going to hemorrhage…
Well, gotta keep the economy going, right? ;)
Spam,
in the 1st Harold and Kumar, when they get towed to the rednecks house? Jackson. (although it was all filmed in Canada. There are no cliffs in Cherryhill, beyotches).
That TD to Nelson should have Gator’s neighbors calling the cops to report screaming.. Stu, your ears must be bleeding.
Jackson? Yuck. I think it is the largest town in the state. Like they say, good things come in small packages.
Is anybody out there? Has Grim opened a FIFTH thread? Everyone in bed?
Hey gator, keep the noise down. I can’t hear the gulls with all that noise.
spam (76)-
Broker/owners aren’t eligible for sales awards, per NJAR rules.
Did all that chasing awards stuff when I was a grunt. Got it out of my system. Either you can sell or you can’t. It is a skill: no more, no less.
BREAKING
Tim Tebow has just solved the economic crisis.
All is well in the world.
RE: What do you guys think this house is worth?
A half-acre lot surrounded by ranches and splits in Jackson NJ with demolition and cleanup costs for the existing “house”?
$45,000
sean 20
Um… this article is a great reason to get the flu shot!
The drug to treat flu, Tamiflu, is ineffective…NOT the flu vaccine.
I’m not clear on your
misinterpretation of this….sl
“But instead of deciding what a good price is for the house, you might want to consider if now is a good time to buy real estate in general. Like it says on that site, it’s not like we’re going to hit bottom one day and then the next house prices are going to skyrocket.”
Agree, but mortgage rates will. Still waiting on my 4.75% 30 fixed. I predict by next Friday. Broker told me today he could get me 4.87. Thanks Mr. Paulson. Muhahahaha!
#28
I would never buy that POS, however, I would pay 70k for the land. Jackson is being settled by Orthodox Jews and I predict Jackson will resemble Gaza by 2020.
RE: Agree, but mortgage rates will [skyrocket]
Rising mortgage rates means today’s buyer would be trapped in their house.
If they buy that $600,000 POS cape with 5% mortgage rates, and the rates rise to 7% in 2-3 years and they need to sell, do you think think they can find a buyer willing to buy that POS cape at or over $600,000 with 7% rates?
What will happen, is they’ll sell at $500,000 and bring a $100K+ check to the closing table. That, or remain trapped in the home until they have enough “equity” to break even, which could be 8-10 years.
Purchase price is far more important than mortgage rates — a mortgage can be refinanced later, the purchase price does not change.
SAS
in bed by 9 when i get up at 3. am fortunate to be very busy at the moment. we will see how business holds up…. it helps that i am on a PC most of the day or on a mobile device for work.
“Utah is the nat’l champ in my book”
Clot,
That’s why your book is buried.
Gator,
Congrats! You must be ballistic.
Choke-lahoma!
Merrill Lynch says rich turning to gold bars for safety
Merrill Lynch has revealed that some of its richest clients are so alarmed by the state of the financial system and signs of political instability around the world that they are now insisting on the purchase of gold bars, shunning derivatives or “paper” proxies.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4177766/Merrill-Lynch-says-rich-turning-to-gold-bars-for-safety.html
A bull amrket in fraud. Show him to the slammer.
“Paulson’s warrant deals may give U.S. taxpayers, who are funding the bailouts, less profit from any recovery in financial stocks than shareholders such as Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein and Saudi Arabian Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, owner of 4 percent of Citigroup Inc., said Simon Johnson, former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund.”
“The transactions are “just egregious,” said Johnson, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “You want to do it the way Warren does it.”
“Paulson said he had to make it attractive to banks, which is code for ‘I’m going to give money away,’” said Joseph Stiglitz, who won a Nobel Prize in 2001 for his work on the economic value of information.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAvhtiFdLyaQ&
he [96],
That can’t be. Only a clown would own gold!
[97],
That’s market.
BC,
gold has no future, its only for doomers and those cowering in bunkers!
BC (94)-
Talk about conspiracies: 66 BCS schools collude to lock other teams/conferences out of the big money games. It is undoubtedly the biggest racket going (outside WS).
I hope the push to bring up the BCS on antitrust violations gets some traction.
The current system has ruined college football.
That being said, congrats Gator! Your guys must’ve had their water drugged vs. Ole Miss.
““Paulson said he had to make it attractive to banks, which is code for ‘I’m going to give money away,’” said Joseph Stiglitz, who won a Nobel Prize in 2001 for his work on the economic value of information.”
And ironically nobody can get any information from Paulson as to what he’s done with the rest of the money. I think it’s safe to say he’s running a Bernie Madoff/fractional reserve/Ponzi scheme keeping major banks afloat until the new administration comes in.
when do we put paulson on trial for treason?
can we skip the trial based o the preponderance of public information?
From CNBC:
Recession more severe than thought: Fed’s Rosengren
The U.S. recession looks to be longer and more severe than originally thought, but there are signs that the economy will improve in the second half of 2009, a top Federal Reserve official said on Thursday.
“It appears the economy contracted quite significantly in the final quarter of 2008 and may continue contracting over at least the first half of 2009. We are seeing businesses retrenching and unemployment rising,” Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren told the Massachusetts Mortgage Bankers Association’s Annual Meeting.
“As a result, this recession looks to be longer and more severe than originally forecast. Still, there are indications that the second half of the year will show improvement,” he said.
BC (97)-
Watch this crook get a Medal of Freedom in 4-5 years.
The rest of us can watch the ceremony from the rec tents in our squatter camps.
BC (98)-
Call me Bozo.
After watching five minutes of that game last night I was wondering which of the FOX announcers was going to run onto the field and ask Tebow for his hand in marraige. Jeez, I didn’t think anything could overshadow John Madden’s Farve man-crush but I stand corrected.
From the Star Ledger:
Corzine plans to explain mortgage foreclosure mediation program
Gov. Jon Corzine plans a noon news conference to announced details of mortgage foreclosure mediation program.
Corzine, Attorney General Anne Milgram and other state officials plan to hold the event at the Hughes Justice Complex in Trenton. The program also involves collaboration with Legal Services of New Jersey.
Old government plundered our treasury; new government promising to print enough money to give everybody everything they want. Pop culture’s “no consequences” philosophy has become our operative norm.
You think Corzine owns any gold? God knows he likes to invest in gold-diggers.
Elizabeth Warren’s already been bum-rushed and neutralized.
The money’s gone. It’s not coming back. Bank robbers tend not to give back stolen money. Move on, nothing more to see here:
“We believe the public has a right to know the value of the investments being made with the TARP funds and whether the terms Treasury receives for investing taxpayer dollars are as good as those that private individuals like Warren Buffett receive for similar investments,” said Elizabeth Warren, chairwoman of the TARP Congressional Oversight Panel, in an e-mail. “This is a question we will continue to ask until we get a complete answer.”
Stiglitz said finance professionals at Treasury possessed expertise on warrant pricing that members of Congress didn’t. As a result, Paulson gave lip service to the lawmakers’ intent on TARP without gaining much value for taxpayers, said Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor who described the pricing mechanism as “a gimmick to make sure that they were giving away something worth nothing.”
“If Paulson was still an employee of Goldman Sachs and he’d done this deal, he would have been fired,” he said.’
“when do we put paulson on trial for treason?”
Hey, what a country. He creates the product and knows it’s sheet. He then approves the biggest short in GS history. At the same time, down the floor, it’s being sold worlwide as AAA securities. Our # 1 export at that time. Now, he fcuks taxpayers, bailing out the same criminals, his fraternity, that brought the system down. He should be lynched.
50.5,
Can I borrow your flag?
Is The Stock Market Cheap?
For the last two months, we have heard round after round of bottom calls and a consistent message of “stocks are cheap”. Some make the claim based on a comparison to treasuries. The reality is it makes no sense to compare stocks to treasuries.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
HE (107)-
I actually switched to Knicks-Mavs through much of the game. Whoever those Fox announcers were should be strapped to a board and left to fend for themselves in a leather club on Halloween.
Nothing beats the NBA. And D’Antoni.
Get off a shot in seven seconds or less. Coll!
Nothing beats the NBA. And D’Antoni.
Get off a shot in seven seconds or less. Cool!
“Call me Bozo.”
Clot,
Sorry. I earned that title a long time ago. I will not relinguish it. However when the Jamil/Mitchell, etc.., start buying the metal, I will be happy to step aside. Probably, 2014-2015.
Next to Paulson, Madoff is a saint.
Can’t wait to see the Jamil/Mitchell/bi crowd going for the shiny. An excellent contrarian indicator.
Print, print, print. Can’t wait for trade barriers, tariffs, hard core protectionism. This will be the final straw, blow the door off the hinges. This will not be daddy’s recession. Spend some time with grandpappy.
90% have no clue what’s coming. It’s the perfect storm, which we discussed 3 years ago, on this site. Oh, by the way, at that time I was called Roach-like, Stephen Roach. Our friend Richard was responsible for that label. Where is the man of unlimited/perpetual liquidity?
HE (113)-
The best part of Mish’s article:
“Think the stock market is cheap? Let’s do the math. The S&P closed at 910. If those earnings estimates hold, the effective PE is 21.53. The historical average PE is about 15. At a PE of 15 the S&P would drop to 634. That is a huge drop of 30% from today’s closing price.
What happens if the stock market over shoots as it typically does in bear markets. Assume a PE of 12. At 12, one might expect to see the S&P at 507. That would be an even bigger decline of 44% from here.”
Clot [119],
It will be 2,000-2,500 by that time. I will be happy to let them sit down at the table with me, at that time.
Next to RE agents, Madoff is a saint.
Clot [121],
I’m looking at $40-50 a share, earnings S&P. Will the delusional pay more than 15X? How about 10X? Don’t rule out a retracement, bear market rally, before reality sets in.
All Disclaimers.
Frank,
RE, Madoff?
One certainty, in 2009, you are still an idiot.
From MarketWatch:
Best Buy December same-store sales down 6.5%
From MarketWatch:
KB Home: Housing market to be difficult or worsen in 2009
KB Home Q4 loss $307 million vs $773 million loss a year ago
KB Home Q4 revenue $919 million vs $2.07 billion year ago
KB Home Q4 loss $3.96 a share vs $9.99 loss a year ago
BC (124)-
Even if the plummet just starts now, the fall will be prodigious.
However, if the O coronation rally pumps the S&P up to 1,000, I won’t complain. :)
In CA, a broke city begins negotiations with GGP to buy one of their many malls gone bust.
Of course, there’s a gag order on the whole proceedings. If I lived there, the only gagging going on would be me…gagging all over my shoes.
These places will make great squatter camps:
“REDLANDS – The City Council has voted unanimously to enter into a confidentiality agreement with Redlands Mall owner General Growth Properties which would prevent council members or city employees from making public any details of a possible mall purchase.
Redlands Redevelopment Agency Director Dan Hobbs said the city has conducted informal conversations with Martin Bahtra, General Growth’s senior development director, relating to the future of the Redlands Mall.
The financial setbacks facing General Growth and Gottschalk’s, Inc., a mall tenant, led the City Council to instruct city staff to monitor the mall’s situation closely, Hobbs said.
“Staff was also instructed to enter into what’s called earnest discussions with General Growth with respect to price and terms for possible purchase of the Redlands Mall by the city,” Hobbs said Tuesday.
In response to a letter from City Manager N. Enrique Martinez seeking to begin mall talks, General Growth requested the city staff sign the confidentiality agreement before the discussions started.
Hobbs said the gag agreement is typical in property sale discussions.
“This agreement merely keeps the city’s options open should the desire to seriously pursue possible purchase (of the mall) if the price became attractive,” Hobbs said.
The agreement does not serve as any form of commitment or statement of intent to buy the mall, Hobbs said.
The city’s current budget crisis
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could put the mall out of Redlands’ price range, unless General Growth decides to sell it at a reduced price.
City tax consultants have projected that drops in sales and property taxes, along with city business and development fees will leave the city with a $2.7 million budget shortfall by the end of the fiscal year June 30.
Martinez said city staff will make the necessary cuts to balance the budget, but there probably won’t be enough extra General Fund dollars available to buy a mall.
General Growth was non-committal when asked if a fire-sale price might be considered for the Redlands Mall.
“Our conversations and dealings with any entity are proprietary and we do not publicly discuss that information,” said David Keating, senior director of corporate communications for General Growth.
Martinez said Redlands had several funding options for a possible mall purchase, but it would depend on what the city would use the building for.
“It’s premature to say what the use of the building would be,” Martinez said.’
#125,
No, you are are an idiot.
Madoff was scamming people for free, RE agents charge 6%.
Clot and BC,
Undoubtedly patience will be rewarded shorting this market. Once the S&P nears 600 I am pulling off my shorts putting half in gold and oil stocks and start double shorting the treasury bubble with the rest as I think at that point the deflation/inflation switch will start showing.
I am recently incorporated and have a SEP. My SEP is at a local bank getting about 3%. Any insight to where i should place it? I know i can put it in a Vanguard or such…but am i better off leaving it for now with this ROR? i am very wet behind the ears with this whole SEP.. thanks
Employers shed 524,000 jobs in December and 2.6 million in ’08 – worst year since 1945, U.S. says. Unemployment rate spikes to 7.2%
#133,
And I still can’t get a seat on a train. Do you think all the unemployed are taking the train for fun?
anecdotal – wife just got a notice that her subscription of cottage living is now canceled. it is no longer going to be published nov/dec 08 was the last issue
Unemployment report is a lie. Believe this fairy tale, you deserve whatever comes next.
BC, I think we’re going to get another bump up to shoot against. Good times!
“No, you are are an idiot.”
Frank,
That’s rear view mirror. Yes, in 2005, I was called an idiot for dumping my pos for some ludicrous price. Oh, when you were running in, I was sprinting out. Come to think of it, I was called much worse in 2003, when I started buying gold.
Present day, I’m called a clown. Moral of the story, embrace it.
Rally time
Stock futures have pulled up, and now point to a mixed start. December nonfarm payrolls declined 524,000, which is in step with the 525,000 job losses that were expected. The prior reading was revised upward to reflect 584,000 job losses. Manufacturing payrolls dropped 149,000. They were expected to fall by 100,000 after declining 104,000 the prior month. The December unemployment rate stands at 7.2%. Economists expected the unemployment rate to climb to 7.0%. November unemployment was revised upward to 6.8%.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Dec. hours worked fall 1.1%
U.S. Dec. services-producing jobs fall 273,000
U.S. Dec. goods-producing jobs fall 251,000
U.S. Dec. unemployment rate highest since Jan. 1993
U.S. Q4 job losses total 1.53 million
U.S. Oct., Nov. payrolls revised down 157,000
U.S. 2008 payrolls fall 2.59 million, most since 1945
U.S. Dec. unemployment rate rises to 7.2% vs. 7.1% expected
The upward revisions of each and every of the prior month’s numbers are disturbing. The report today might have reported a decline of 524,000, but when January’s numbers come out, I’m sure December’s numbers will be revised upwards to 575,000 or higher. Enjoy the show for now. When you get back to the parking lot, your car will have been towed.
As Clot said, this is the governments fantasy number, the real number is at or above 10%.
Clot [136],
It’s a total smoke screen.
Total unemployed, plus marginally attached, plus p/t, since they can’t attain a full time job;
13.5%
This is approx a 60% increase in one year! It’s a blood bath. Got an apple cart?
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
U-6 at 13.5%
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
SA:
CMBS Delinquencies Rise: Should the Government Step In?
“his chart shows commercial real estate delinquencies through Q3 ‘08, and should look familiar because it appears eerily similar to the residential chart circa Q3 ‘07. In fact, commercial real estate delinquency rates have been increasing by an average of 20% quarter over quarter since Q2 ‘07. Until recently, this rate of delinquencies has had limited impact on the $800 billion commercial mortgage backed security market (CMBS). However, two developments could change all that: rising CMBS delinquencies and a record amount of commercial refinancing.”
From CNN/Money:
Total 2008 job loss: 2.6 million
Yet another sobering government labor report released Friday showed the economy lost 524,000 jobs in December, bringing 2008’s total job loss to 2.6 million.
Last year’s steep drop in employment marked the highest yearly job-loss total since 1945.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a loss of 525,000 jobs in the month.
According to the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report, the unemployment rate rose to 7.2% last month from 6.7% in November and higher than economists’ forecasts of 7%.
The unemployment rate, which is compiled in a separate survey from the payroll number, was at its highest level since January 1993.
The vast majority – 1.9 million – of last year’s job losses came in the final four months of 2008, after the credit crisis began in September. November’s job loss was revised up to 584,000 from 533,000, and October was revised up to 423,000.
SA:
Why We Can’t Take Mortgage Refinances to the Bank Just Yet
http://seekingalpha.com/article/113960-why-we-can-t-take-mortgage-refinances-to-the-bank-just-yet
“One key element that many of us are overlooking when it comes to refinancing, is home values.”
Meanwhile 15 million of illegals have no problem keeping and getting new job.
Meanwhile Frank continues to post statements that are completely devoid of any evidence or fact.
The sun is obviously cold. I know it, because when I walked the dog this morning it was friggin’ freezing out.
Frank…One deficient in judgment and good sense: ass, fool, idiot, imbecile, jackass, mooncalf, nincompoop, ninny, nitwit, simple, simpleton, softhead, tomfool. Informal: dope, gander, goose. Slang: cretin, ding-dong, dip, goof, jerk, nerd, schmo, schmuck, turkey.
Stu [150],
Well, that’s all folks….
Where’s Gator? Still partying?
Here’s a great blog that I found that John would love…and it has nothing to do with spicy vegetables.
http://thegspot.typepad.com/blog/2009/01/in-support-of-a-feminist-stimulus.html
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Loses 524,000 Jobs; 2008 Losses Most Since 1945
The U.S. lost 524,000 jobs in December, making last year’s collapse in employment the worst since the end of World War II and underscoring the severity of the recession President-elect Barack Obama will inherit.
The decline in payrolls was in line with forecasts and followed a drop of 584,000 in November, bringing job losses for 2008 to 2.589 million, the most since 1945, according to a Labor Department report today in Washington. The jobless rate rose more than forecast to 7.2 percent, a 15-year high, from 6.8 percent.
…
“We’re seeing pretty ugly numbers as the recession is worsening,” Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. “It’s going to be devastating in terms of consumer confidence and spending. The next couple of months will be dismal.”
He,
“Only a moron RE bubble speculator/investor who got lucky and now can’t make any money owns GOLD.
He’s too dumb and shallow to invest in NYSE”
Thats’s what someone told my wife.
Meanwhile 15 million of illegals have no problem keeping and getting new job
Frank,
When these guys loose their jobs they just live on their savings until they find another one.
We don’t have any savings. We only have debt. Hence, no Job = no cash flow and you’re screwed.
Gator is heading to work. She enjoyed the game thoroughly. I, on the other hand fell asleep due to the slowness of the 4th quarter. At 11:07pm there were twelve minutes left on the game clock. At 11:15pm there were ten minutes and fifty seven seconds left on the game clock. Between the terrible announcers and the slowness of the game, I just couldn’t keep my eyes open. Of course, I was rudely awoken when they scored their final TD and when the game ended.
I think the lesson to be learned from the game is that no matter how great the pass efficiency of your QB is, it requires a whole team effort to come up with the win.
And for the Utah and Bama fans. Both teams had a schedule that was way too weak. When Rutgers has Morgan State on their schedule and are ranked 40 points higher on strength of schedule, well this might explain why an undefeated team does not belong in a BCS bowl.
I will continue to wait for Rutgers to finish in the top 25. Two more years and they will have a powerhouse of a team. I’ve been following the recruiting closely and they will be set with a dominant QB, RB and WRs. If the defense continues to stay strong (Schiano’s specialty), then I think NJ will have a team they can be proud of.
Since NJGator woke up so late this morning, I dropped the Rye Guy off at school solo. When I removed his jacket, I noticed that he was wearing a Gators sweatshirt. Can you guess who picked out his clothes this morning?
Re: That Jackson House –
An additional data point….there were two 3-bedroom ranches on half-acre lots in that development that sold for $250K in the past 6 months.
I’ll keep an eye on Hemlock Drive and report any updates.
http://www.redbankauction.com
HA HA
An excellent comment I copied from another blog…
Two thumbs for Acemoglu’s essay. This hand wringing about what caused the current economic crisis is pointless and distracting. Any idiot can see that the cause of crisis was massive fraud by financial institutions (the creators and marketers of derivative securities as well as the ratings agencies)and widespread corruption (on the part of regulators, rating agencies and the economics profession more generally).
The current crisis the oldest story in the world. A lot of clever, well-connected, well-healed unethical people saw an easy path to riches and took it. To accomplish their crooked ends, they bought politicians, placed their cronies in critical positions at regulatory agencies, bribed academics with consultancy fees and directorships, floated a massive PR campaign as a camouflage (promoting the ridiculous notion that unregulated capitalism leads to a fair, stable and efficient allocation of resources).
The great moderation, low interest rates, globalization of financial markets, etc… were enabling factors that made financial fraud easier to propagate, but they were not the causes. The causes were widespread fraud and corruption, that is all.
The big question today is to figure out how to clean up the mess created by this massive global wave of fraud. One big question, at least in my mind, is whether large banks have completely lost the capacity to make prudent responsible loans,i.e. to efficiently allocate capital. If that is the case, as I suspect, we are in for a very long period of economic first contraction and stagnation as the major economies learn how to build a new honest and efficient financial plumbing system to move money from savers to credit worthy borrowers.
In the end, I suspect, it will be the unwillingness of the U.S. to honestly face what has happened and to competently repair its financial system that will prevent the U.S. economy from recovering quickly.
http://www.stirlingsir.com/auctions/property/redbanks/pdf/Metro_Auction_founders_pkg.jpg
if i am one of first 15 bidders in red bank absolute condo sale I get a special prize!
Gross Wins ‘Game of Chicken’ Shunning GMAC Swap as Bonds Soar
What about me? He stole my in bed with the fed stategy and now my headlines
It was dumb to buy smart notes but now it is smart.
‘Dumb Luck’
“The company is in a much more competitive position for the long term as a result of the bank holding company approval,” said Gina Proia, a spokeswoman for GMAC. “We needed to execute the things we did in order to get the approval. Everyone is in a better position.”
Holders of notes that were ineligible for the exchange, such as individual investors who held about $14.6 billion of so- called SmartNotes, also gained from the deal. GMAC’s 7.5 percent SmartNotes due in 2017 climbed to 41.5 cents on the dollar from 15 cents before the conversion, Bloomberg data show.
They’re benefiting from “dumb luck,” said Egan of Egan- Jones. “GMAC is certainly out of the woods for the next 12 months. After that, it’s an open issue.”
“if i am one of first 15 bidders in red bank absolute condo sale I get a special prize!”
John,
I heard Red Hot Red Bank more times than goldilocks. I started to get real nervous. Then Hov broke ground and I immediately put out the for sale sign.
grim says:
U.S. Loses 524,000 Jobs; 2008 Losses Most Since 1945
I love hearing this. Especially when my employer, a company that is recieving a huge amount of the TARP money, is ramping up its offshore employment in the Phillipines and India and not hiring here. Us taxpayers are keeping these companies alive so they can export the employment to other countries.
x-underwriter,
Quit working for Citigroup, they are bunch of loosers.
Frank,
Dimon is my boss
Grim – When is the next GTG?
#155,
“We don’t have any savings.”
Are you saying that American’s are dumber than Mexicans?
“they are bunch of loosers.”
Only a loser who blames all of our problems on illegal immigrants can somehow spell worse than one. Perhaps they are better qualified to work than you are Frank?
The front Page of the NY Times online has a HUGE ad for Aljazeera, “The Heart of the story – Every angle, every side”.
I suppose compared to the Times, they could claim that. Next they’ll be running free ads for Fox News.
WWE lays off 10% of staff.
Who is next? Nascar?
From calculatedrisk; Per the BLS Part Time employees rose by 3.4 mil in the past 12 months.
Here comes the under-employment talking points.
/sniff-sniff… Boy that smells like wage deflation, doesn’t it?
[42] reinvestor,
Yay, I made the list. I am a Reinvestor Housing Terrorist!
That makes my day.
Every penny counts.
ZURICH (Reuters) – Swiss wealth manager UBS AG (UBSN.VX) (UBS.N) is closing all the offshore accounts of its U.S. clients, the bank said on Friday, as it comes under pressure from U.S. tax authorities.
The Swiss bank decided in July last year to stop offering offshore accounts to U.S. citizens after it was targeted by a U.S. tax investigation which challenges Switzerland’s famous banking secrecy laws.
U.S. prosecutors have alleged UBS helped clients hide $18 billion of untaxed American money in undeclared accounts. This amounts to around $300 million of annual unpaid taxes, the newspaper said.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090109/bs_nm/us_ubs_1
Nom
welcome to the club, pick up your free Tshirt at the door!
BC/Clot –
RE: Gold.
I was listening to a Scottish guy on Bloomberg a while back, seemed pretty smart. (Hugh Hendry?).
He said that Gold was the end game, but it is too early to rush into Gold right now. Too many retail investors in it. The physical (coin) market is a very tiny proportion of the overall market for Gold. The scarcity of coins implies that too many people are buying it. For the next bull run to start in Gold, all these people need to sell off. I think (not sure), something similar happened in the 70’s (74-76), when Gold dropped by 50% before resuming its climb to almost 800%.
Thoughts?
Now here’s an indicator that commodity prices have deflated. Even pirates don’t want this stuff.
“The Sirius Star, which was carrying two million barrels of crude oil when it was hijacked, was moving south-east, said the East African Seafarers Assistance Programme. “She might have been released. It is too early to confirm,” said Andrew Mwangura, a spokesman for the programme. “But often when a deal has been released, the hijackers accompany the ship away from the coast like this.”‘
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/09/somalia-pirates-supertanker-ransom
“welcome to the club, pick up your free Tshirt at the door!”
I wish I was older!
From Yahoo Finance:
Wholesale inventories drop 0.6 percent in November
Businesses slashed wholesale inventories for a third straight month in November as sales continued to plummet by record amounts, further evidence of the severe recession gripping the country.
The Commerce Department reported Friday that wholesale inventories dropped 0.6 percent in November while sales were down a record 7.1 percent.
Businesses are expected to keep paring inventories in coming months as sales weaken further in the midst of a recession that is already the longest in a quarter century. Many economists do not expect a recovery to begin until the second half of this year.
Lennar off over 20%. Report that an internet fraud watch site associated with Barry Minkow has accused them of being a Ponzi scheme.
Clot –
“Can’t wait to see the Jamil/Mitchell/bi crowd going for the shiny. An excellent contrarian indicator.”
Dude, you should listen to me. I am the best contrary indicator out there. I covered some shorts on Monday and the market has been tanking ever since :).
I am willing to post my trades over here for a fee, so that everyone else can take the other side of the trade. ;)
From Bloomberg:
KB Home Shares Drop as Builder’s Loss Exceeds Analyst Estimates
KB Home, the fourth-largest U.S. homebuilder, reported a fourth-quarter loss exceeding analysts’ estimates, sending shares down as much as 14 percent, as the company predicted more pain for the housing market in 2009.
[108] grim,
If Milgram is involved, it is gonna involve a shakedown of mortgage holders, and nothing less.
I know her personally, and don’t dislike her, but I think it is safe to say that her sole function in that office is to make political points for the governor by going after anyone or anything still making a profit in NJ. Her first big test in this area went down in flames when she decided to challenge a well-established principle of federal preemption and got shot down quickly. I remember she didn’t much like my needling her about it.
Her No. 2 is a very sharp guy though, and I expect to hear more about him in the future.
He said that Gold was the end game, but it is too early to rush into Gold right now. Too many retail investors in it. The physical (coin) market is a very tiny proportion of the overall market for Gold. The scarcity of coins implies that too many people are buying it. For the next bull run to start in Gold, all these people need to sell off. I think (not sure), something similar happened in the 70’s (74-76), when Gold dropped by 50% before resuming its climb to almost 800%.
You said that GOLD is the the winner in the end. If you’re GOD and can tell how the game is gonna evolve day by day and turn by turn you can possibly do do better.
I’m too stupid to be a winner day by day and battle by battle.
I prefer to be there at the end hold the FLAG and stick on ground soaked with blood.
#159
my opinion is that this was caused by a dab of fraud and a boatload of stupidity/greed. It makes people more comfortable to think that there is some Dr. Evil pulling all the strings, but that is rarely accurate
We are all Ponzi now.
interesting article on detroit, and it even includes RE
Detroit Fights to Survive amid Global Downturn
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,599988,00.html
“Detroit is filled with people with no places to live, no families and no jobs. All they have left are their guns. This harsh reality is what prompts Michael Shannon to loudly announce his presence whenever he enters an empty hallway, and to clearly identify himself as “Mike the real estate agent,” so that he doesn’t get shot.”
#176
“Thoughts?”
If it’s not Scottish, it’s crap!
The “Ponz.” Ayaaaa.
John (161)-
Just mentioning yourself as playing the same gambit as Gross proves you are a megalomaniac of epic proportion.
BC (163)-
John’s prize? A microwaved onion, with an embedded razor.
“if i am one of first 15 bidders in red bank absolute condo sale I get a special prize!”
119 clot: “Can’t wait to see the Jamil/Mitchell/bi crowd going for the shiny. An excellent contrarian indicator.”
Yeah, I was the idiot who predicted oil at $200 and gold at $2000 prices. No wait, I wasn’t. Wasn’t it you, Clot ?
As I said before, I find it ironic that people who correctly saw one bubble went right into another one (oil, metals).
Yes, gold in 2003 was a wise investment but in 2007 with all time high prices, only me-too losers bought it. “They don’t make any more gold/oil, it only goes up, everybody wants to own gold/oil”. You know the story.
vic (176)-
Wait for the demand for delivery of the physical overwhelms the paper market.
Then the fun starts.
Make (184) –
Too many people know that Gold is the way right now. A bull run has never started with so many people optimistic about it.
JMO. I am just trying to put forth all cases for/against the commodity/currency.
vic (176)-
GS is a bullion bank. Watch their moves.
vodka (187)-
And I thought my job was tough…
Vic,
I agree with make. Would rather be in to early and lose some gains in the long run then try and time the bottom. If you got into gold in the early 2000’s then you cant do much better then that anyway and i believe that some of the people on this blog did get into gold that far back
jamil (192)-
Averaged into AUY at $9. Out at $13 ages ago. All shiny activity since has been secondary to my short of RE, consumer, financials.
I don’t recall making oil $200 or gold $2,000 calls. If you could find those and post them, my apologies.
Short of that, nice try at a strawman.
You still suck.
how the secret save my life
http://www.amazon.com/review/R2X2TB3S4O5I60/ref=cm_cr_pr_viewpnt#R2X2TB3S4O5I60
haha
“Yes, gold in 2003 was a wise investment but in 2007 with all time high prices, only me-too losers bought it.”
Jamil,
The best performing asset class, on an annual basis, since 2001. It has averaged over 16%, annually.
You have to embrace the late comers. When any market is short term oversold, it will throw the the last one’s in, off the bus. That’s OK. It allows others to buy/add at lower prices. If the long term fundamentals/technicals are in play, who cares. This market can pull back to $650 and will not violate the long term technical picture.
Signed,
Bozo- Hat tip to Clot
Ket (197)-
“If you got into gold in the early 2000’s then you cant do much better then that anyway ”
Absolutely, I am talking about people who missed that boat. The reason why it was such a great investment in the early part of the century was that not too many people were aware of the bull market in commodities.
Just not sure about the gold at these levels. Commodities on the other hand, are down to their 2001 levels.
Ramblings….
Was at our (always late) holiday party last night.
One of the plastic surgeons was talking about having his wife (at home with kids, works part time doing “house doc” work) start dabbling in foreclosures, you know, so she can start making some real returns and help with expenses.
Gave my usual warnings about folks who know next to nothing about it getting involved in it. I urged him to have her look at bank-owned properties instead.
Tried warning of the pitfalls of sheriff sale foreclosures, etc and got the obligatory, requisite glassy-eyed stare and then a yawn.
Thankfully one of our PAs is a part time wine importer of Spanish and Italian wines… thankfully was able to change the subject and talk about reality…. good wines instead.
Did have him regale us with stories of when his wife (Indian) got sick in India and he was describing the vast differences in their hospitals/nursing care versus here.
Amazing how ignorant folks in the US are of what non-USA medical care is like.
sl
Vic,
Got a spare supertanker or perhaps an old salt mine you want to get ride of?
Just not sure about the gold at these levels. Commodities on the other hand, are down to their 2001 levels.
Vic,
Buy the Dip.
President George Washington was inaugurated in Federal Hall, on the corner of Broad Street and Wall Street.
After his inauguration for a second term, President Thomas Jefferson rode a horse from the Capitol steps to the White House amid music. This procession was watched by a group of mechanics working nearby. This grew into today’s traditional Inaugural Parade.
In 1841, President William Harrison caught pneumonia during his inauguration. He refused to wear an overcoat during the ceremony, where he gave the longest address to date: 8,445 words. He died a month after being sworn in.
In 1865, President Abraham Lincoln was the first president to include African-Americans in his Inaugural Parade.
Inaugurations have been held on January 20 since President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s inauguration in 1937. Exceptions are only made when the date falls on a Sunday.
President Gerald Ford was the only president to never be elected president or vice president. He was named as Richard Nixon’s last-minute replacement for VP when Spiro Agnew resigned, and he took over for Nixon after Nixon’s resignation eight months later. He lost the following election to Jimmy Carter.
“Buy the Dip”
Make,
Head first.
“I don’t recall making oil $200 or gold $2,000 calls.”
Clot,
I called gold at 2K, it will take a few years. Possibly $650 first. Oil? Not me. I was short.
Bill Gross is a nut but a nice nut, my friend works for him and at his last birthday he had them conduct a fake fire drill and when everyone left the building he threw a big suprise BBQ party and when everyone returned to their seats he had security leave a $500 check on all their seats as a thank you for attending his party, his offices are right by the beach in Newport and since they work NY time they get out of work between 2 and 3 pm everyday. I actually am an investor in his fund. Actually, I like stock but in the last year I have become a raging bond nut. My wife got a hold of one of my statements yesterday and was curious why I own everything. Hey spreading the risk around. BTW Mr. Gross returned 4% last year beating nearly everyone. Well he didn’t beat me, but then again he has a huge handicap, you can cherry pick odd lots when you got billions to invest.
My prediction is gold will have a major major sell of if Mr. T and Snoop dog get shot on the same day.
How can you be a megalmanic if it is not of epic proportion?
Clotpoll says:
January 9, 2009 at 10:44 am
John (161)-
Just mentioning yourself as playing the same gambit as Gross proves you are a megalomaniac of epic proportion.
“I am recently incorporated and have a SEP.”
I am also self-employed and found that a solo 401 (k) allowed for greater accumulations each year. Where one should put one’s money, I will leave to others, but I suggest looking into whether the solo 401k would allow you to sock-away more tax-free cash.
(210)-
Post of the day.
like candy falling from the sky … after a car accident at the end of last year, the other person’s insurance just called me and said they want to “pay me for pain and suffering.” sweet!
(was wheeled out of there on a stretcher, and went to a doctor twice, but im fine now)
maybe i can get money to go and help revive the economy! that’s what i should do, right reinvestor?
“think (not sure), something similar happened in the 70’s (74-76), when Gold dropped by 50% before resuming its climb to almost 800%.”
Vic [176],
If you want major support/resistance levels, get my email from Grim. Don’t want to take up too much space here.
What better way to stimulate the economy then to turn off the tube to millions of Americans.
You will get one of two results, increased productivity or massive riots.
01/09 11:11 DJ U.S. Gold Prices
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Engelhard Corp’s base price for industrial gold bullion was $849.34 per troy ounce, down $8.51 from previous. Its selling price for gold in fabricated form was $913.04, down $9.15.
Handy & Harman’s base price for gold was $847.25 per troy ounce, down $8.50. The fabricated form price was $915.03, down $9.18.
[199] Shawn
Freakin’ unreal. It read like a gutter version of a John story.
“B, the POS of all POS’s – GROSS…………………….”
From my wife, just looked at something?
get the cash it is tax free. btw if not enough call Sibon and Sibon on Long Island, featured on sixty minues once as LI Law, nine jewish brothers and their 30 or so kids who are lawyers gang sue after car accidents, sons and brother in laws have doctors offices right on site, they even sent the guys to your house with their own doctors. They sue EVERYONE!!!!!!!!!! Other driver, both car companies, ambulence driver, everyone in ER, even passengers in car if they can claim they distracted you. Everyone settles rather than having a gang lawsuit. My friend used them on a 100K claim on Geico which was the max insurance driver had, Geico at first tried to fight, but when they heard Sibon and Sibon was set to attack with all 60 lawyers they cut a check for 100K and ran off. Also put a lien on drivers fathers house as car was in his name and he was doctor, also got coin out of him. They are true americans.
Skittles guy says:
January 9, 2009 at 11:27 am
like candy falling from the sky … after a car accident at the end of last year, the other person’s insurance just called me and said they want to “pay me for pain and suffering.” sweet!
(was wheeled out of there on a stretcher, and went to a doctor twice, but im fine now)
maybe i can get money to go and help revive the economy! that’s what i should do, right reinvestor?
John [216],
Wake me up on June 12, 2011. Then again, April 28, 2014.
““If you got into gold in the early 2000’s then you cant do much better then that anyway ”
Absolutely, I am talking about people who missed that boat. The reason why it was such a great investment in the early part of the century was that not too many people were aware of the bull market in commodities.
Just not sure about the gold at these levels. Commodities on the other hand, are down to their 2001 levels.”
Then buy silver, at this point, it’s got way more upside potential than gold.
Qwerty says:
January 9, 2009 at 2:35 am
RE: Agree, but mortgage rates will [skyrocket]
Rising mortgage rates means today’s buyer would be trapped in their house.
If they buy that $600,000 POS cape with 5% mortgage rates, and the rates rise to 7% in 2-3 years and they need to sell, do you think think they can find a buyer willing to buy that POS cape at or over $600,000 with 7% rates?
solution: put a substantial amount of $$ down on the house? like over 20%?
John (219)-
You could make a lot more coin selling your stories than buying bonds.
BC (214) –
Thanks!. I will do so in the evening.
what advice would you give my friend?
He bought an apt in Jersey City 6 months ago (not downtown – closer to the hood/St. Peters college).
Anyhow, he just had his salary reduced and can no longer afford the mortgage. I’m not sure what his DP was, but i’m sure it wasn’t 20% (prolly more like 5%/10%).
Would you:
a. Look for a roommate
b. Call the bank – tell them you’re f’d and can no longer pay.
c. Try to get in one of the useless avoid foreclosure programs that are out there.
d. Stop paying immediately, horde cash and wait till they kick you out.
e – another solution?
John,
Do your self a favor and pay close attention.
http://watch.bnn.ca/trading-day/#clip127416
great comment from another blog ……
Bailouts are NEVER for the little guy no matter what spin their proponents use to sell them to the public (who will be paying for them through their taxes). The role of the little guy in a Ponzi scheme is to be the empty-bag holder. This is the tragedy of our times, and there’s nothing anyone can do to prevent it, whether or not they might want to. The losses have already occurred, but as yet still lie out of sight in illiquid ‘asset’ accounts supposedly worth hundreds of trillions of dollars, but actually worth close to nothing.
A predatory lending structure has been sucking the wealth out of ordinary people through debt enslavement for a long time, by encouraging them to buy far more than they could actually afford on margin (ie with borrowed money). That is a recipe for paying far over the odds for everything, while the financiers collect the excess – an excess collected preferentially from those near the bottom of the income scale, who were most likely to carry a perpetual credit balance at a predatory rate. This is how credit bubbles form – a combination of predators and all-too-willing prey that doesn’t understand the nature of the trap. Hansel and Gretel and the witch’s Gingerbread House comes to mind, minus the escape at the end.
Unfortunately, it was easy to entice people into debt slavery, as the offer of access to material goods is always hard to resist, particularly when it seems like everyone else is enjoying new-found wealth. It doesn’t take long to convince people that they deserve to have a large home, multiple cars and all manner of consumer goods, or to convince them that they are somehow inadequate and that their children will suffer if they don’t participate in the consumer culture. The relentless marketing barrage played on our insecurities, conveying a message that happiness and social status could, and should, be bought.
11:33AM Frank TARP Bill: At Least $50 Bln Must Go To Foreclosure Mitigation — CNBC :
A few weeks ago when the Fed announced a strategy designed to bring down long-term interest and home mortgage rates through unlimited Treasury bond purchases, government debt staged a spectacular rally. To the unschooled market observer, the spike may be difficult to understand. After all, why would the value of Treasury bonds rise while their underlying credit quality is deteriorating faster than Bernie Madoff’s social schedule? The move is actually a perfect illustration of the tried and true Wall Street strategy of “buy the rumor and sell the fact”.
If it is well known that Fed will be a big purchaser of Treasuries, those buying now will be positioned to unload their holdings when the buying spree begins. If the Fed pays higher prices in the future, traders can earn riskless speculative profits. If the traders lever up their positions, as many are likely doing, even small profits can turn unto huge windfalls.
The downside of course, is that all of the demand for Treasuries is artificial. Treasuries are now in the hands of speculators looking to sell, not investors looking to hold. These players are analogous to the mid-decade condo-flippers who flocked to new developments for quick profits. They did not intend to occupy their properties, but rather flip them to future buyers. Once these properties came back on the market, condo prices collapsed, as developers were forced to compete for new sales with their former customers.
This is precisely what will happen with Treasuries. Just as the U.S. government issues mountains of new debt to finance the multi-trillion annual deficits planned by the Obama Administration, speculative holders of existing debt will be offering their bonds for sale as well. In order to prevent a complete collapse in the bond prices the Fed will be forced to significantly increase its buying.
However, since the only way the Fed can buy bonds is by printing money, the more bonds they buy the more inflation they will create. As inflation diminishes the investment value of low-yielding Treasuries, such a scenario will kick off a downward spiral. But the more active the Fed becomes in their quest to prop up bond prices, the bigger the incentive to hit the Fed’s bid. The result will be that all Treasuries sold will be purchased by the Fed. But with the resulting frenzy in the Treasury market, and with inflation kicking into high gear, we can expect that demand for other debt classes that the Fed is not backstopping, such as corporate, municipal and agency debt, to fall through the floor, pushing up interest rates across the board.
In order to “save” the economy from these high rates the Fed will then have to expand its purchases to include all forms of debt. If that happens, run-away inflation will quickly turn into hyper-inflation, and our currency will be worthless and our economy left in ruins.
To avoid this nightmare scenario, the Fed should pull out of the bond market before it’s too late and let prices fall to where real buyers, those willing to hold to maturity, re-enter the market. Given how high inflation will likely be by the time this happens, my guess is that long-term Treasury yields will have to rise well into the double digits to clear the market.
But we should know that the bursting of the bond market bubble will have even more dire consequences than the bursting of prior bubbles in stocks and real estate. Significantly higher interest rates and inflation that will result will severely compound the current problems. Imagine how much worse our economy would be if we faced double digit interest rates? In addition, not only will homeowners be confronted with record high mortgage rates, but the Government will be staring at trillion dollar annual interest payments on the national debt, making interest by far the single largest line item in the Federal budget. Just like homeowners who relied on teaser rates, the Government will face a similar problem when all its low-yielding short-term debt matures.
The grim reality of course is that when the real estate bubble burst the Government was able to “bail-out” private parties. However, when the bond market bubble bursts, it will be the U.S. Government itself that will be in need of the mother of all bailouts. If U.S. taxpayers or foreign creditors are unwilling or unable to pony up, and if the nightmare hyper-inflation scenario is to be avoided, default will be the only option. If misery really does love company, Bernie Madoff’s clients might finally find some comfort.
to post 225 – choice “d” is clear winner here.
Thanjks to the goverment!!
Update Dec. 11, 2008 — The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 generally allows taxpayers to exclude income from the discharge of debt on their principal residence. Debt reduced through mortgage restructuring, as well as mortgage debt forgiven in connection with a foreclosure, qualify for this relief.
This provision applies to debt forgiven in calendar years 2007 through 2012. Up to $2 million of forgiven debt is eligible for this exclusion ($1 million if married filing separately). The exclusion doesn’t apply if the discharge is due to services performed for the lender or any other reason not directly related to a decline in the home’s value or the taxpayer’s financial condition.
http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=174034,00.html
rest of the comment……
In terms of mortgages, even those that seemed conservative in recent years were not. In the latter stages of a credit bubble, even a deposit of over 50% and a monthly payment that could be covered by one of two salaries is a recipe for deep trouble. We are looking at a collapse of property prices and a huge rise in unemployment, which will combine to cause an unprecedented amount of negative equity, defaults and foreclosure, and, thanks to leverage, the resulting loses will snowball, further undercutting the supposed value of financial assets. The ‘conservative’ mortgagees are mostly just as trapped as those who over-extended themselves further.
Even those who own homes free and clear will find that, in a frozen property market, they can not move to where the jobs are, or to a more suitable property with some self-sufficiency potential. If they lose their jobs, they may lose their homes through being unable to pay the sky-rocketing property taxes that municipalities will introduce in a desperate attempt to fill the gaping holes in their own budgets. This is why we suggest that people generally rent rather than own (unless they own a homestead free and clear). Renting amounts to paying someone else a fee to take the property price risk for you, and that is a very good bet under today’s circumstances. Rents will fall a long way in a deflation, and although landlord default is always a possibility (perhaps meaning more than one move), that risk is preferable to losing the bulk of one’s assets in a property price collapse.
MM (229):
Are you trying to be #12 on Retards list of housing terrorists?
Great find.
Barney Frank on CNBC now lisping about using the TARP money to buy Munis now!
Wait let buy up the bad mortgages, no lets give it to the banks, now wait lets give it to the local governments!
So when is that boat leaving the USA?
skep-tic says:
“If it’s not Scottish, it’s crap!”
Quite right.
Al (230) how long do you think he could stay before they kick him out?
from Mish
There is no official definition of depression. Here is mine. When the U-6 unemployment rate rises above 12.5 in conjunction with a stock market that is down close to 50%, it’s an economic depression. We are in one.
he is referring to U-6 unemployment
can we draw and quarter paulson already?????
Paulson Bailout Didn’t Give Taxpayers What Goldman Gave Buffett
Henry Paulson may be the most powerful manager of money in the world and he still couldn’t do for taxpayers with the $700 billion bailout of American banks what Warren Buffett did for his shareholders in investing in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The Treasury secretary has made 174 purchases of banks’ preferred shares that include certificates to buy stock at a later date. He invested $10 billion in Goldman Sachs in October, twice as much as Buffett did the month before, yet gained warrants worth one-fourth as much as the billionaire, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Goldman Sachs terms were repeated in most of the other bank bailouts.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAvhtiFdLyaQ&refer=worldwide
It must be considered that there is nothing more difficult to carry out nor more doubtful of success nor more dangerous to handle than to initiate a new order of things
Machiavelli 1446-1507, Italian statesman and philosopher
The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man
George Bernard Shaw 1856-1950, Irish playwright and critic
Tell me and I’ll forget, show me and I may remember, involve me and I’ll understand
Chinese Proverb
Change is not made without inconvenience, even from worse to better
Samuel Johnson 1709-1784, English lexicographer
Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances
Sun Tzu c. 490 BC, Chinese military strategist
This feeling, finally, that we may change things – this is at the centre of everything we are. Lose that… lose everything
Sir David Hare 1947-, British playwright and author of many satires
shawn,
Check with an attorney, but i believe that with current regulations your buddy might be able to pull of 18 months.
Sean, First I was in Bed with te Fed, now I am in Bed with Barney, pass the KY.
Sean says:
January 9, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Barney Frank on CNBC now lisping about using the TARP money to buy Munis now!
Wait let buy up the bad mortgages, no lets give it to the banks, now wait lets give it to the local governments!
So when is that boat leaving the USA?
Al (230) how long do you think he could stay before they kick him out?
Should be relatively painless to squat for 9-12 months. Should be able to string that out even longer if he takes an active role (attempts to stall foreclosure, workouts, rescheduling, working every loophole.
He needs to realize that doing so will absolutely destroy his credit and may expose him to some legal liability.
I’m not a lawyer, this is not legal advice. Everything that comes out of my mouth is crap.
David Rosenberg on Housing and the Economy
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=989387414&play=1
Those that buy and eat discounted sushi, often ending up paying twice.
Stu 2009, workflow engineer
loading up the B52’s… ready for some greenback carpet bombing?
Geithner has been working night and day on the eighth floor of the transition team office in downtown Washington with Lawrence H. Summers and other senior economic advisers to hash out a new approach that would expand the program’s aid to municipalities, small businesses, homeowners and other consumers. With lawmakers stewing over how Bush administration officials spent the first $350 billion, Geithner has little chance of winning congressional approval for the second half without retooling the program, the sources added.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/08/AR2009010804109_pf.html
Just had a few pints and let me tell you the pubs downtown were pretty crowded for a recession, maybe all short sellers and bond salesmen but nevertheless gunisess is good and even better at 12 noon when freshly tapped.
re: #237
Barney Frank said today we bought preferred shares not warrants! Boy or Boy hide the congressional pages Barney is going to blow a gasket when he finds out Paulson screwed him again!
Frank also said today, no more bonuses for bankers, no aircraft and more accountability for the TARP bailout money otherwise you have to give the money back.
hahahahahha
Nick,
From yesterdays debate: Those 2011 resets may not have the option of silly low rates,,,,
Mortgage rate relief might not last long
Massive efforts by the Federal Reserve to bring down mortgage rates have so far been a success, but homeowners had better act fast because analysts say record low rates could be gone as soon as this summer. Thirty-year mortgage rates dropped to a low of 5.01 percent this week — their lowest since 1971 — after the Federal Reserve unveiled a plan in late November to buy as much as $500 billion of securities backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. They could touch as low as 4.50 percent, but the cheap loans will not last long, mortgage experts warned. “The downward trend we have seen in mortgage rates will not last beyond the first half of this year,” said Celia Chen, senior director of housing economics at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “By then, the Federal Reserve’s program will have run its course and other issues will move to the forefront that could push mortgage rates higher,” she said.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUKTRE5077SJ20090108?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
Europe’s economy contracts at rates not seen since 1930s
Dire day for Europe as Spain’s jobless blasts through 3m and German industry goes into “free-fall”. German exports and industrial orders have both plunged at the steepest rate since modern records began and Spain’s unemployment has surged above three million, capping one of the most disastrous days for Europe’s economy since the Second World War. Joaquin Almunia, the European economics commissioner, warned that the picture would turn “dramatically worse” this year. The eurozone’s confidence index collapsed from 74.9 to 67.1, the lowest since Brussels started collecting the data in 1985. “It makes truly dismal reading,” said Julian Callow, Europe economist at Barclays Capital. “Industrial sentiment has never experienced such a rapid slump. There is an implosion of demand.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4177664/Europes-economy-contracts-at-rates-not-seen-since-1930s.html
how long before o’bama tries this one?
Government Should Buy Britons’ Homes, Ex-Bnak of England Officials Say
Prime Minister Gordon Brown should buy homes on the verge of repossession to add money to the British economy and save families from being thrown out onto the street, two former Bank of England economists said. The plan would cost about 50 billion pounds ($76 billion) over five years, Fathom Financial Consulting economists Shamik Dhar and Danny Gabay said in a report today. The program would also provide a new economic policy tool as the central bank’s interest rate approaches zero.
Your free cheapo gift of the day…
Suze Orman’s latest book (in pdf) for legal download.
http://media.oprah.com/sterm/action_plan_english.pdf
Al, Kettle & Grim – thanks for the info, i’ll let him know.
Of course he ignored my advice when i told him to hold off on buying.
The info on this blog is priceless. hell, i even bought SRS @ $50 the other day.
“There is no official definition of depression. Here is mine. When the U-6 unemployment rate rises above 12.5 in conjunction with a stock market that is down close to 50%, it’s an economic depression. We are in one.”
kettle,
Keep in mind that U-6 was the official reading back in 1990 and the late 70’s/early 80’s. That’s before all the govt smoke screens. Both recessions topped out at approx 10%. We can now say that we will be experiencing the worst recession in most of our lifetimes. The only question; does it rival the Great D. Watch U-6 going forward, the rest is pure BS.
“Government Should Buy Britons’ Homes, Ex-Bnak of England Officials Say”
kettle,
Buy 2m houses and bulldoze them. Housing bust over.
Rich peopel are sooo stupid. Don’t they know that Gold doe snot pay dividents and interest and it’s practically dead money.
Gold rush erupts over financial crisis
By Nick Gardner
January 10, 2009 12:01am
THE global financial crisis has sparked a new gold rush.
Worried investors seeking a safe home for their money are ploughing billions of dollars into the precious metal in a bid to preserve their wealth.
Demand has now reached such unprecedented levels that the Perth Mint, Australia’s biggest wholesaler of gold coins and bars, has been forced to ration its sales.
Perth Mint’s bullion sales rose 194 per cent in the December quarter compared with the corresponding period in 2007, while silver bullion sales were up 140 per cent.
The mint has suspended sales of all gold bars and all bullion coins – except its 1oz “Kangaroo” gold bullion coin.
On Monday, after a three-month suspension, it will expand its range of bullion coins for sale but the restrictions remain in place for minted gold bullion bars so the mint can sell some gold to as many customers as possible.
“We are working three shifts a day, six days a week, and still can’t keep up with demand,” Perth Mint CEO Ed Harbuz said. “I’ve never known anything like this in the precious metals market.
“We would be working Sundays too but we are having difficulty getting enough staff.”
Non-minted gold in the form of cast bars produced by Perth Mint’s local refinery can still be bought, although customers who want the bigger bars often have to wait several weeks.
One customer recently bought $500,000 worth of bullion and wanted it delivered so he could hold it personally.
“For very big orders we normally keep the gold in our depository for security reasons,” Mr Harbuz said.
“Orders of $10 million or more are not unusual. Often the orders are much larger if we are dealing with pension funds or institutional investors.”
#225,
“what advice would you give my friend?”
b. Call the bank, if he truly can no longer can afford the place, the bank will cut a deal with him.
Last option is to go back to India.
“Prime Minister Gordon Brown should buy homes on the verge of repossession to add money to the British economy and save families from being thrown out onto the street,”
Thrown out onto the street? How about just becoming renters again, like the rest of us? The poor dears.
make [254],
If we see a low 7, high 6 handle, sell Trudy and buy more.
Barney is right they should buy munis. Right now a taxable ten year US Govt bond bond is 2%, but I can get a ten year tax free NYS GO Muni for 5%. that is 250% higher than the fed bond. Back in the day the NYS GO paid 90% of the taxable bond. Ten year NYS GO bonds should be going for 1.8% not 5%. Propping that bad boy up will cut our local taxes big time as interest income is a big part of it. Also it will put some big time cash in us Muni Bond buyers pockets. Everyone wins. Finally, munis are often issued in 30 year increments where they are callable after ten year. None of the 1997 and 1998 bonds were called. In additon rates were high in 1999, 2000 and 2001, if muni rates don’t fall none of the high yielding bonds issued from 1997 to 2001 can be called after ten years and you and I will be paying a ton of additional taxes to finance those 5-6% bonds for the next 20 years.
Frank, are you saying the bank will voluntarily cut his principle? Or extend the payments…maybe tack another 10yrs on the loan?
book of matches, old newspaper and some gasoline
Frank says:
January 9, 2009 at 1:30 pm
#225,
“what advice would you give my friend?”
b. Call the bank, if he truly can no longer can afford the place, the bank will cut a deal with him.
Last option is to go back to India.
“Barney Frank on CNBC now lisping about using the TARP money to buy Munis now!”
It would only make sense.
Frank…the dry cleaner called and said your order is ready.
http://tinyurl.com/FranksOrder
#259,
Yes, yes and yes but only if can not afford it. It does not mean you can keep your BMW and shore house and cut your mortgage payment in half.
Barney Frank is a Rock God. Plus when he is done fooling around with his boy toys he can [redacted]
“Prime Minister Gordon Brown”
[256],
Gordon Brown is clueless. He cost British taxpayers over $2B, BP, selling 400 tons of gold at the absolute bottom of the 20 year bear market. How many houses would that buy? Hail to the Chief!
Why anybody would be concerned, long term, with central bank selling is beyond me?
Score one for the Pirates.
http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-finance/20090109/AF.Piracy/?cid=rssfeed&attr=article_news_finance_AF.Piracy
Man who go to bed with itchy hiney, wake up with smelly finger.
Gary 2009, Unemployed St*rbucks Addict
SRS going down to 5….
House Financial Services Comm. Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) released outline
of bill today that would amend TARP in a number of ways, including:
“Clarifying Treasury’s authority to provide support for commercial real estate
loans and mortgage-backed securities.”
Frank, are you Barney Frank? Anyhow, where can I read his bill, I want to read about what he said about Muni bonds
[254] mm
I hold all my metals in physical:
physical brass,
physical lead,
phyiscal rifle barrels
physical, well, you get it.
And I do treat them as hedges. They will increase in value while other assets are declining. Further, as a commodity, their value is much more secure—supply is much more likely to be constrained than increased, and as a hard asset, the price should appreciate as dollars depreciate.
An unusual investment, but an investment nonetheless.
No Frank is Frank Furter. Full of artificial fillers.
John more muni news and it is not good news.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/09/business/09insure.html?scp=1&sq=muni&st=cse
And the Barney Frank statement on buying Munis along with we got preferred shares for TARP money was during a CNBC interview with reporters today.
Frank is clueless he has no idea how badly Paulson screwed him over and now he is talking about clawing back TARP money in the bill he is submitting next week.
I heard Geitner and Summers aren’t inviting him to the all night rave parties going on over at the Treasury right now.
but does he like his frank with mayo between two buns?
Frank, are you Barney Frank? yes I am, I blog in between house hearings.
From Curbed;
20 Pine Street is having a distress sale; %50 off!
I realize no one else here may care, but 20 Pine has been an object of interest for me for a while now.
yes John he likes buns.
http://www.moonbattery.com/archives/dish-barney-frank.jpg
John and Gary – Jeez! Trying to have a little lunch over here!
Barney Frank is clueless. Ever listen to the man speak?
The press has stopped talking moral hazard, but the unintended consequences are starting to rear their ugly heads. The mortgage cramdowns and attempt to bail out every thing that greed ruined will fail as all we are really doing is creating wealth out of thin air which will have to get paid back through monetary deflation. The real shame of all of this is that the government continues to help the ultra wealthy at the expense of the ill-informed public. As long as this game continues, I will continue to maintain my short positions. I’m certainly not planning on following the advice of an ignoramus that doesn’t believe we are in a recession since there was a long line outside of an Abercrombie due to Xmas returns. Nor the rantings of a Republican lackey who to this day thinks SP would have made an affective leader.
FDA Scientists complain to Obama about corruption.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090108/ap_on_go_ot/fda_dissidents
Can any realtor shed some light on the following
14 Oak St
Midland Park
It shows a property history of
10/16/2007 $350,000 4/12/2006 $1
7/6/2004 $315,000
and then a recent sale on 12/28 for $704,488
My wife used to work in that building when it was the Chemical Bank Headquarters, interesting but true story. Chase build 1CMP plaza after Chemical Bank built 20 Pine, the CEO of Chase at the time said he made sure he build 1 CMP tall enough so Chemical Bank will alway be in Chases shadow. I have been watching it too, hope they bang out some units cheap as maybe I can buy the unit where my wife used to sit.
toshiro_mifune says:
January 9, 2009 at 2:05 pm
From Curbed;
20 Pine Street is having a distress sale; %50 off!
I realize no one else here may care, but 20 Pine has been an object of interest for me for a while now.
Stu, let me give you a word of advice. When a train is coming you can either get on, miss it or stand in front of it and get run over.
sean
I heard Geitner and Summers aren’t inviting him to the all night rave parties going on over at the Treasury right now.
I can just picture geitner and summers rolling on E with a sucker in their mouths
http://tinyurl.com/7xk993
PGC,
Judging from the NJMLS pictures, looks like a teardown or an near ground-up remodel/expansion.
#281 John: Wrong again, as usual.
20 Pine St Street was completed just before the 1929 crash, and
1 Chase Plaza was completed in 1961.
“Stu, let me give you a word of advice. When a train is coming you can either get on, miss it or stand in front of it and get run over.”
John,
That’s hogwash. If you want to offer advice, let’s us know what to do once the train has left the station, without you.
DUHHHHHH, I said the Chase building ICMP was built to tower over the Chemical building 20 Pine. 1CMP was built back in the day when the Rockafellers banked there, in fact WTC was built around same era backed by Chase and with help from the Gov who was I think Nelson Rockafeller. In fact if you had JU-ICE like I do you can go to chase museum where they even have some of the orignal water pipes from when they were founded, and all kinds of cool stuff.
whocares says:
January 9, 2009 at 2:42 pm
#281 John: Wrong again, as usual.
20 Pine St Street was completed just before the 1929 crash, and
1 Chase Plaza was completed in 1961.
Dell shutting down the Limerick plant in Ireland, cutting 1900 jobs. Will reopen production in Lodz, Poland. Wooooch is Prime!
If you make it past the badge readers they have some of the original pipe.
“At the turn of the nineteenth century, obtaining a bank charter required an act of the state legislature. This of course injected a powerful element of politics into the process and invited what today would be called corruption but then was regarded as business as usual. Hamilton’s political enemy—and eventual murderer—Aaron Burr was able to create a bank by sneaking a clause into a charter for a company, called the Manhattan Company, to provide clean water to New York City. The innocuous-looking clause allowed the company to invest surplus capital in any lawful enterprise. Within six months of the company’s creation, and long before it had laid a single section of water pipe, the company opened a bank, the Bank of the Manhattan Company. Still in existence, it is today J.P.Morgan Chase, the second largest bank in the United States.”
Numbers is a TV show. Get in Bed with the Fed, and if old Barney sticks you a little with his Frank it is all good.
BC Bob says:
January 9, 2009 at 2:49 pm
“Stu, let me give you a word of advice. When a train is coming you can either get on, miss it or stand in front of it and get run over.”
John,
That’s hogwash. If you want to offer advice, let’s us know what to do once the train has left the station, without you.
#289 – If you go down to the second level of the basement at 1 CMP they have the vaults where they store all of the art for JPM NY offices. Some of it very valuable.
“Dell shutting down the Limerick plant in Ireland, cutting 1900 jobs”
Bad news begets more bad news, losses beget further losses.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/business/worldbusiness/04ireland.html?ref=business&pagewanted=all
Rubin resigns!
Moving to Lodz, Poland??
“Numbers is a TV show.”
John,
PBS also ran a TV show, a 7 part series. The Great D.
RE: solution: put a substantial amount of $$ down on the house? like over 20%?
You mean the future buyer? They’re going to buy a $600,000 POS cape at 7% interest AND have a 20% down payment during a deep recession? Ah, seems “optimistic” at best; more accurately delusional.
If you mean the buyer today putting down 20%, it doesn’t change a single thing. They will bring a $100K+ check to the closing table.
==========
Rising mortgage rates means today’s buyer would be trapped in their house.
If they buy that $600,000 POS cape with 5% mortgage rates, and the rates rise to 7% in 2-3 years and they need to sell, do you think think they can find a buyer willing to buy that POS cape at or over $600,000 with 7% rates?
What will happen, is they’ll sell at $500,000 and bring a $100K+ check to the closing table. That, or remain trapped in the home until they have enough “equity” to break even, which could be 8-10 years.
Purchase price is far more important than mortgage rates — a mortgage can be refinanced later, the purchase price does not change.
This is an interesting clip on CNBC. Basically, the guy says that there is no way to predict anything in the markets this year because of the scale and types of government interventions. I think I agree with him.
BTW, if you look really hard, there seem to be some good guys on Bubble Vision.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=986525653&play=1
To clarify, a 20% down payment today does not ensure in any way a buyer will materialize in a few years (when interest rates will allegedly be higher, according to “buy now” advocates). Such a down payment will only lower YOUR monthly payment, but also wipe out YOUR MONEY (not the bank’s) as property values continue their decline and your “equity” evaporates.
That’s why it makes no sense to buy a “starter” house these days. If you can find a good size 4BR colonial that you can stay in for 15-20 years, then buying today at a FAIR PRICE (30-40% below peak) might make some sense.
#292 BC Bob
I saw that picture on Wednesday and asked Mrs PGC if it was lots of plastic or trophy wife.
For me it reminded me of Charlie Croker from “A man in full”. I think we will see a few more people like this.
BC,
Dunne’s wife is quite easy on the eye’s. She shouldnt have to worry about her assets deflating though
Can anyone comment on Fort Lee prices? I have been looking since 2003, and it seems prices are still stuck at 2005 bubble levels. According to realtors houses are still selling for 799K+ in the area. Is everyone if Fort Lee a millionaire? Even realtor herself admits that everage salary is 50K. Can anyone make sence?
“If you can find a good size 4BR colonial that you can stay in for 15-20 years, then buying today at a FAIR PRICE (30-40% below peak) might make some sense.”
I agree with this. If you have to buy, I would avoid a starter. It’s highly unlikely that you will be able to trade up in the next 3-6 years. If you have to be shackled to a house you might as well get one you can live with and grow your family into.
BC,
I was referring to the “pajama index” from that article yesterday. Not good for Limerick.
“I saw that picture on Wednesday and asked Mrs PGC if it was lots of plastic or trophy wife.”
PGC [299],
Trophy, she’s 34.
kettle [300],
Does she play the harp?
Morgan Stanley Citi Bank?
Doyle [303],
Are you going to the Super Bowl to see The Boss. I hear that the NAR wants him to kick off the 2009 selling season with Glory Days.
“Morgan Stanley Citi Bank?”
NJC,
I wanted the Wachovia deal to go thru;
Wa-Shiti
#144,
U-1 at 2.9% Where’s the recession?
JBJB
Buying in NJ is to much of a tax risk at this point. Even if you find a sound 4br home that works for you and you have 20%, the long term tax risk is huge. The state is in the hole for 100+ billion! There are only 3 ways to get that money. 1 from the Federal Gov, 2, from taxes (property), 3. massive cuts combined with the other 2.
substantial tax hikes are a certainty at this point. If 10K/yr is common now, then what happens in 2, 5, 10 years?
As has been suggested before, it is likely that your tax bill could equal or exceed your PIT.
I will be staying a renter until the current depression has at least bottomed (assuming i am not working an apple cart by then).
Rob Rubin is retiring not resigning! Retiring is much more dignified.
Ask Pretard where the recession is?
“U-1 at 2.9%”
Frank,
Yes, a total buffoon.
John,
About that train…I was on it back in the yard. Not like everyone else who jumped on it as it pulled into GC.
http://tinyurl.com/munibonds
C and MS merging brokerage units?
Two small turds merged together still result in a slightly larger turd I suppose.
Kettle1
You are speaking my language. I wont be buying anytime soon for many of the reasons you listed. I posted that if you “have” to buy it’s probably worth skipping the starter home if you can afford to do so. And if I “had” to buy I would put as little down as possible.
Kettle, number 4, Barney Frank gets the choosen one to back stop munis and NJ refinances the whole kit and Kaboodle at 2%.
Barrons will be worth a buy first time since October, Citi/Morgan and Munis will be a good read
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Citigroup (C:Citigroup, Inc
News , chart , profile , more
Last: 6.68-0.48-6.70%
3:56pm 01/09/2009
C 6.68, -0.48, -6.7%) is in talks to sell its Smith Barney brokerage unit and may even seriously consider a joint venture with Morgan Stanley (MS:morgan stanley , according to media reports Friday. No deal has been reached yet, the reports said. Robert Rubin, the former Treasury Secretary under President Clinton, plans to leave Citigroup after criticism of his role in the financial crisis, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier.
C+MS = More NY layoffs.
CNNMoney:
Bad quarter for banks…but just how bad?
Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and other banks will take it on the chin when they report fourth-quarter results. But will results be worse than expected?
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/09/news/companies/banks_fourth_quarter/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
“Earnings at JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) are expected to plummet 83% to $482 million, or just 4 cents a share.
And many other banks are also expected to take a hit.”
“C+MS = More NY layoffs.”
Where is the recession?
ok everyone, its almost 5 o’clock.
guess I will see (most) everyones posts back at 9am Mon morning.
sleep tight by 9:30.
and i hear the latest House episode was pretty good.
SAS
“If you can find a good size 4BR colonial that you can stay in for 15-20 years, then buying today at a FAIR PRICE (30-40% below peak) might make some sense.”
I was thinking of the opposite strategy, given the uncertainty. Originally we were planning on buying a 4br colonial as soon as prices corrected but now we’re thinking about the small cape starter home so that monthly costs are nearly as low as renting. If market stabilizes, great, you can always trade up later. If prices keep coming down for the next ten years, you dont lose as much. And if things do get worse or if you lose your job, you wouldn’t have to downsize.
BC,
Wife got the invite already, but had to turn it down. Without getting into specifics, it wouldn’t look good if she accepted right now based on the account she works on.
So I’ll be downstairs sitting next to the kegerator watching on the big screen… no Boss live for me.
“About that train…I was on it back in the yard.”
Stu [313],
Is that the line at A & F?
my post was sarcaism.
the only thing I hear on these boards at night are Kettle’s crickets.
if anyone loses their jobs, be aware of all your internet activity, and don’t come crying to me and don’t blame it on the man neither.
ok, off my soapbox.
SAS
“Robert Rubin, the former Treasury Secretary under President Clinton, plans to leave Citigroup after criticism of his role in the financial crisis”
Why doesn’t he leave his bonus behind?
I will be praying that C jettison’s SB. It would be as if someone drove a truck down the GSP and backed-up a money truck into my lap…..
please G-d…..have mercy on my bank account……
“the only thing I hear on these boards at night are Kettle’s crickets.”
SAS,
Hey, what can I say. I’m hanging in Lodi, during the dark hours.
#298
“That’s why it makes no sense to buy a “starter” house these days. If you can find a good size 4BR colonial that you can stay in for 15-20 years, then buying today at a FAIR PRICE (30-40% below peak) might make some sense.”
totally agree. starter house concept is over. in terms of buying permanent house, I think it is a waste of time to approach anyone who is not in a true distress situation
“I will be praying that C jettison’s SB.”
Which bonds do you own?
Doyle [323],
Born to Run
Badlands
Hungry Heart [if the Ravens get in]
Cadillac Ranch [Carolina]
Rising [Giants, O & Econmoy]
Rosalita [Chargers]
Atlantic City [Philly]
Glory Days- For the 2009 RE kickoff
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28573650
UBS selling out Americans. So much for going Swiss to avoid the alphabet boys.
#315
“And if I “had” to buy I would put as little down as possible.”
also agree with this. better to keep money in bank in case recession gets really bad and you lose your job. can always default on the debt
RE: If market stabilizes, great, you can always trade up later.
If the market stabilizes? Another 15-20% decline in prices for 2009 alone is in the bag. No bottom until 2011, the earliest.
Thoughts of “If the market stabilizes” were perhaps semi-justified in 2006, but certainly not today. Today the curtain has been pulled back for all to see, even the most willfully ignorant.
We’re are heading down, down, down.
planning to trade up is in my opinion a bad idea. you could be underwater for 10 yrs if you buy now. so the only way buying makes sense is if you plan to live in the house for a very long time.
Feels like a bank failure in Alpharetta kinda night.
[309] kettle,
you forgot (4), borrowing ridiculous amounts of money (at high interest rates) and rolling over maturing debt indefinitely.
At least for the next 20 years, until I can get my sorry butt out of the state before the debt bomb explodes.
If you think about it, it is the path of least resistance: hike property taxes and folks revolt (though it would have to be a serious hike over a short period, not death by 1000 cuts); hike income taxes and enough HNW folks leave the state or reconfigure their taxable income so that the benefit is lost; hike other taxes and fees, which will be offset by deadweight loss.
In the end, you will see a combination of these: Fees will increase over time, taxes will increase over time, local aid will be cut over time, and debt will be rolled over and over for decades to come.
BC, love it… have a great weekend!
This is why Barney is mad, this NY munie was issued back during Christmas week when munis were in free fall, the city had to pay 6.75% on 12-23-08 when Fed Funds were .25%, they locked in 27 times the Fed Funds Rate for 25 years. Same stuff happend in NJ, NJ borrowing costs doubled in 2008 and it is going to nail you to the wall in 2010 when they are making interst payments, you better hope barney gets the job done.
NEW YORK N Y CITY HSG DEV CORP
MULTIFAMILY HSG R BK/ENTRY
SER B DD 12/23/08 F/C 05/01/09
R/MD 6.75 11/01/2033
Actually, once property taxes reach an Apex in two or three years it is meaningless to a trade up buyer as seller will have to discount his price to reflect the 24K in taxes.
“you better hope barney gets the job done.”
John,
Any other reason why toilet paper will be more vaulable than our dollar?
Shares of Lennar Corp. (LEN) tumbled after Barry Minkow’s Fraud Discovery Institute alleged the homebuilder improperly boosted cash on its balance sheet
BC Bob the thing I am missing is if cash is worthless who are you going to sell your gold too?
“if cash is worthless who are you going to sell your gold too?”
ahh young skywalker.
:)
SAS
“Why doesnt he leave his bonus behind?”
No bonus left behind.
“BC Bob the thing I am missing is if cash is worthless who are you going to sell your gold too?”
John,
HAH. After we hyper inflate the crowd will kill for the metal. Somehwere around 2015, we may bring a real Tall Paul disciple to the Fed, I know delusional. At that time, I will put out the for sale sign, let the bubble bid it up and I’ll step aside and buy dollars, which nobody wants.
Have a great weekend.
BC Bob –
Did you ever work with Jim Rogers?
“ahh young skywalker”
let me add to that.
alot to learn young skywalker.
stick to bonds.
: P
SAS
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html
God Bless Barney Frank, check out muni rates this week, he just got 30 year under 5%. God Bless GMAC too. SAS don’t hate the player, btw my genworth, cablevision and CIT bonds were crazy mad up this week.
Lennar: Ponzi Scheme?
http://dealbreaker.com/2009/01/lennar-ponzi-scheme.php
BC, if I was broke and money was worthless and I was starving I rather have a value meal than a pound of gold, when your hyper inflation end of world situation hits gold will be as valuable as a beanie baby or cabbage patch kid.
“BC Bob –
Did you ever work with Jim Rogers?”
Vic,
No, but I have been to a Jolly Rogers.
“Lennar: Ponzi Scheme?”
what did i say weeks ago?
more out of the woodwork they will come, there are alot more, just hope nothing of yours is in one.
SAS
“when your hyper inflation end of world situation hits gold will be as valuable as a beanie baby or cabbage patch kid.”
John,
Yes, at their peak.
If a pizza costs $300 at that time, I will be able to buy. One other tidbit, the pizzaman will accept gold, at that time.
John,
Are you a rookie?
“SAS don’t hate the player”
i don’t know this saying? i don’t hate anyone. and whatever game your playing, i will sit out.
SAS
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html
The “T” word, you rock NY Gov.
SAS you are a playa too so rock on.
Later;
Go Gints!
HA – and what does he do with it dump your nugget off at the pawn shop. Been there done that. Even seen the gold vaults back in the day when I did audits. An asset that does not make money, costs money to store, costs money to insure and costs money to guard can only increase in a ponzi manner. Besides we are in deflation mode and gold is an inflation hedge, you are fighting the war too early.
BC Bob says:
January 9, 2009 at 4:59 pm
“when your hyper inflation end of world situation hits gold will be as valuable as a beanie baby or cabbage patch kid.”
John,
Yes, at their peak.
If a pizza costs $300 at that time, I will be able to buy. One other tidbit, the pizzaman will accept gold, at that time.
John,
Are you a rookie?
start a new thread, I want to use my blackberry
Yep, rookie.
never understood the desire to own physical gold either except as jewelry (pinky rings, mostly). in true currency collapse scenario I can’t imagine that the people who have gold will be the kingpins. people with guns will be
Goldman: NYC apartment prices to drop 35-44%. Drop of up to 58% if Wall St incomes decline to pre-1986 levels (relative to non-NYC incomes).
http://curbed.com/archives/2009/01/08/we_read_goldman_sachs_mindnumbing_nyc_real_estate_report_so_you_dont_have_to_kill_yourself.php
This Thursday thread is getting old!
My Gawd……what a trip….between UBS and Rubin…anyone think that the slogan EAT THE RICH will come back into vogue???
ABC News at 6 is going to have a segment about Corzine and foreclosure relief.
state announcing new mortgage foreclosure negotiation program …
“never understood the desire to own physical gold either except as jewelry (pinky rings, mostly). in true currency collapse scenario I can’t imagine that the people who have gold will be the kingpins. people with guns will be”
There has yet to have been a time in recorded history (even in past currency collapses) where gold hasn’t been accepted as money or store of value. Furthermore, guns aren’t that expensive. You can own both.
New thread!
Somebody explain this to me. If you’re taking a long term position in gold because you expect inflation/currency devaluation somewhere down the road, shouldn’t you be taking on as much debt as possible to buy property right now, even if it isn’t quite the bottom of the market?
I mean, if you believe that future dollars are going to be worth less (or even worthless), you should be borrowing as much as you can to buy real assets. You’ll inflate away your debt and have real property to show for it.
Sean (246)-
Barney Frank also didn’t know that his boyfriend was running a pr@stitution ring right out of his own apartment, either.
Please, somebody kill this guy.
“Barney Frank said today we bought preferred shares not warrants!”
Frank says:
January 9, 2009 at 1:30 pm
#225,
“what advice would you give my friend?”
b. Call the bank, if he truly can no longer can afford the place, the bank will cut a deal with him.
Last option is to go back to India.
typical racist bile from the resident as*clown on this site. frank must be upset that all the minorities are making more money than him, and smarter than him. poor guy. it’ll be OK frank. just work harder.
#369
well yes – if you think the USD gets crushed from huge deficits etc, then buying from a position of non USD (ie you are from Europe or Asia perhaps)
But if you are a resident, with all your assets/income are here, but you don’t see wages rising for the forseeable future, well it is not such a great proposition.
and I am not sure I see wages going up under most any circumstances given the recent payroll data (higher unemployment, lower hours worked etc)
Fact is, you are spending more of your hours worked for an asset which will be worth less.
“Somebody explain this to me. If you’re taking a long term position in gold because you expect inflation/currency devaluation somewhere down the road, shouldn’t you be taking on as much debt as possible to buy property right now, even if it isn’t quite the bottom of the market?”
Somewhere down the road? Yes. No one really knows when that should be. Buying and holding gold isn’t very speculative. Buying a house because of hyperinflation is. Although, with each week that passes, the patient home buyer gains more of an advantage.
Gold production in China and India is expected to increase by 5% next year.