Hat tip to Rich in NNJ for pulling this list together! Make sure you thank Rich for his hard work!
BERGENFIELD
90 LINCOLN AVE
SOLD: $388,000 12/12/2006
SOLD: $262,000 1/9/2009
CLIFFSIDE PARK
268 WAYNE AVE
SOLD: $410,000 2/6/2004
SOLD: $345,500 1/12/2009
CRESSKILL
308 GRANT AVE
SOLD: $1,630,000 12/6/2006
SOLD: $1,350,000 1/22/2009
DUMONT
52 W LINDEN AVE
SOLD: $355,000 7/7/2006
SOLD: $310,000 1/21/2009
ELMWOOD PARK
30 LINWOOD AVE
SOLD: $445,000 12/27/2002
SOLD: $430,000 4/6/2004
SOLD: $290,000 1/16/2009
ELMWOOD PARK
109 BELLEVUE AVE
SOLD: $436,000 6/23/2005
SOLD: $329,770 1/20/2009
EMERSON
136 DYER AVE
SOLD: $280,000 10/29/2004
SOLD: $410,000 11/23/2005
SOLD: $250,000 12/31/2008
ENGLEWOOD
297 MARY ST
SOLD: $353,000 4/27/2006
SOLD: $280,000 1/7/2009
ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS
27 GERALDINE CT
SOLD: $1,340,000 9/6/2005
SOLD: $1,295,000 1/22/2009
FORT LEE
2469 HAMMETT AVE
SOLD: $359,000 3/2/2005
SOLD: $285,000 12/31/2008
FORT LEE
219 BELLEMEADE AVE
SOLD: $700,000 11/17/2003
SOLD: $600,000 1/19/2009
LEONIA
49 HAWTHORNE TER
SOLD: $429,000 3/28/2003
SOLD: $429,000 1/16/2009
(No Photo)
LITTLE FERRY
2 VELOCK DR
SOLD: $379,900 7/10/2006
SOLD: $224,900 1/23/2009
MAYWOOD
49 GROVE AVE
SOLD: $348,000 7/21/2005
SOLD: $289,000 12/30/2008
OLD TAPPAN
60 CHERYL LN
SOLD: $825,000 4/19/2004
SOLD: $770,000 12/31/2008
RAMSEY
65 MAPLE ST
SOLD: $410,000 2/2/2005
SOLD: $399,000 12/31/2008
RIDGEWOOD
312 LINCOLN AVE
SOLD: $790,000 12/22/2004
SOLD: $720,000 1/9/2009
RUTHERFORD
29 WINGRA AVE
SOLD: $380,000 7/20/2005
SOLD: $310,000 1/9/2009
TEANECK
17 LEROME PL
SOLD: $355,000 2/16/2006
SOLD: $260,000 1/23/2009
TEANECK
124 BEDFORD AVE
SOLD: $375,000 2/6/2005
SOLD: $288,000 1/26/2009
TEANECK
1164 KENSINGTON RD
SOLD: $442,000 8/25/2004
SOLD: $375,000 1/8/2009
TEANECK
745 QUEEN ANNE RD
SOLD: $775,000 12/2/2002
SOLD: $777,500 1/22/2009
TENAFLY
94 OAK ST
SOLD: $639,000 7/15/2003
SOLD: $625,000 1/15/2009
WALDWICK
18 SMITH ST
SOLD: $550,000 7/15/2005
SOLD: $440,000 1/16/2009
WASHINGTON TWNSHP
378 FERN ST
SOLD: $740,000 6/23/2006
SOLD: $416,000 1/12/2009
WYCKOFF
727 MOUNTAIN AVE
SOLD: $562,500 8/15/2006
SOLD: $460,000 1/16/2009
Fed has now purchased approximately $70 billion in MBS…
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/mbs/index.html
… and mortgage rates continue to move upwards.
PARIS UNREST WILL SPREAD ROUND WORLD, UNIONS WARN
http://www.drudgereport.com/
“FORT LEE
219 BELLEMEADE AVE”
comp killer?
refresh my memory how you define a comp?
SAS
WASHINGTON TWNSHP
378 FERN ST
SOLD: $740,000 6/23/2006
SOLD: $416,000 1/12/2009
Almost 50% off 2006 in BC? In teflon coated Bergen? Gary, do I hear you? Gary, do I see you? Gary?
of course, were these MLS listing? I assume yes given the pics. In all of my searches, however, everything is still near 2006 levels. Yes, I will wait it out but given that other story about forclosed not going up on the MLS I’m starting to wonder who to call when the time comes.
ATA Truck Tonnage Index Plummeted 11.1 Percent in December
The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index plunged 11.1 percent in December 2008, marking the largest month-to-month reduction since April 1994, when the unionized less-than-truckload industry was in the midst of a strike. December’s drop was the third-largest single-month drop since ATA began collecting the data in 1973. In December, the seasonally adjusted tonnage index equaled just 98.3 (2000 = 100), its lowest level since December 2000. The not seasonally adjusted index edged 0.6 percent higher in December. Compared with December 2007, the index declined 14.1 percent, the biggest year-over-year decrease since February 1996. During the fourth quarter, tonnage was down 6.0 percent from the same quarter in 2007.
http://www.truckline.com/pages/article.aspx?id=471%2F{8E1C7279-ED27-4C03-B189-CEEEE26BBB12
I mean I want to ignore list price but truth be told, I feel like a jackazz asking 200K off an ask
trucking chart
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_9ZzZquaXrR8/SYIV2m9rh2I/AAAAAAAAC0Y/xoG0ZrrYs3w/s400/TruckTonnage2.jpg
looks like the shipping shut down is progressing down the food chain. trucking is the critical link in the US distribution system……
“refresh my memory how you define a comp?”
An ovepriced/oversubscribed pos with 4 walls and a ceiling, bought with an I/O, piggyback, liar loan, etc.. In addition to this, you pay 12-15K in taxes. Now seeking a tarp to put it to sleep. Akin to a funny movie that somehow turns into a horror show.
trucking carries 70 percent of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation,
BC
Europe warns U.S. over ‘Buy America’
The European Commission signaled on Thursday it may contest a “Buy America” provision if it is included in the final version of an $825 billion package to kick-start the U.S. economy. “If a bill is passed which prohibits the sale or purchase of European goods on American territory, that is not something we will stand idly by and ignore,” Commission spokesman Peter Power told a regular news briefing. Power said the European Union executive, which oversees trade policy for the 27-member bloc, “will be carefully studying the details of the bill before we can say that the U.S. are violating any trade agreement”.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/29/news/economy/steelmakers_stimulus.reut/index.htm
what do you suppose the correlation of drop in trucking is to drop in national GDP?
“I mean I want to ignore list price but truth be told, I feel like a jackazz asking 200K off an ask”
Barbara,
Don’t feel this way. You are bargaining from a position of strength, utilize every ounce of it. Another tidbit, you may be overpaying at 200K off ask. Look them in the whites of their eyes, make your bid. Want to get fancy, give them 24 hours. Fill or kill.
BCBob,
of course you are right. I think my other issue is time wasted. I know those asks are pie in the sky please bail me out or I might as well just go under deals. Do you recommend using an agent or just negotiating directly with the listing agent?
Barbara (7)-
You have to ignore asking price and get comfortable with comping off actual closed sales. When no history of closed sales exist, you have to extrapolate value by other means.
Try this: assume that 95% of the listings you see are not actually for sale. Because they aren’t.
Once you’ve digested that fact, you can move forward to only doing due diligence on the handful of homes that really appeal to you. And, given the above, your first inquiry shouldn’t be about price. It should be about the owner’s reason for selling. If those reasons aren’t legit, move on. If there’s something forcing that sale, you’re in business.
“Europe warns U.S. over ‘Buy America’”
Kettle,
Here we go. You could not script it any better. I actually thought we would be at least 6 months away. Then again, stimulus package? How about more manipulation/trade barriers/tariffs. Can’t wait for massive currency intervention. Trouble is, they’ll all be buying each others currency. They’ll be pissing more money away. This war is heating up. There is only one winner in that damn P scenario, inflation. Oh yeah, that hard shiny currency will also reflate.
NJ escape,
i would guess a fairly tight correlation if 70% of the nations freight moves by truck and trucking is falling off a cliff.
Barb (7)-
Get your own agent. You can’t play the game using somebody else’s flack.
15 Clotpoll
this is exactly the new approach I will be implementing when I get back in. I’m not sure how to get this info but I would also like to know how many home equities in addition to the original buy price without having to pay for a lien search.
BTW, thanks Rich. I know nothing about prestigious BC, and these are eye-opening.
Nobody will be spared. No area, no town, no way.
“Do you recommend using an agent or just negotiating directly with the listing agent?”
Barbara,
I’ll leave that to the realtors on the board.
Bob,
as clot said earlier today, all of the bailout money seems to accelerating things
Barb (19)-
You’re way overthinking this. The owner’s level of indebtedness speaks to motivation to sell, not the value of the property. Some cursory work by your agent- ONLY on homes that really interest you- will give you all you need to know.
NYC Budget Axe To Carve Out $1 Billion
http://wcbstv.com/breakingnewsalerts/nyc.budget.mayor.2.921808.html
Zimbabwe abandons its currency
Zimbabweans will be allowed to conduct business in other currencies, alongside the Zimbabwe dollar, in an effort to stem the country’s runaway inflation.
A Z$100 trillion note was recently introduced.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7859033.stm
Great job Rich in NNJ for putting togther the whole thing..
Clot,
the owner’s indebtness, for now, often means that a realistic pricing is not possible and they can not negotiate down. Not too many people have 90k to pony up at a closing. I realize that this may change very soon.
Thanks Rich. You da man.
Poster boy for not paying your taxes: timothy geithner.
Thank you for this blessing savior omama.
SAS
Thank you Rich. Interesting to see the houses in Bergen County never got any better looking even with all the bubble money. thats one fugly county. no offense.
hey Clot,
time for a little night cap :)
and like a ol’ southern woman once told me: a crisis is a terrible thing to waster!!
SAS
opps
“and like a ol’ southern woman once told me: a crisis is a terrible thing to waste!!
:P
SAS
Rich, nice work and thanks for all the help you’ve given me.
Thanks Rich. These comp killer posts are uplifting.
“Bergen County Comp Killers!”
Wow, Homes in Bergen County are still selling for these sky high prices?? You call this a housing recession?? I will take two of them.
“Poster boy for not paying your taxes: timothy geithner.”
Yeah, I guess it takes a tax manipulator to spot a currency manipulator?
“Wow, Homes in Bergen County are still selling for these sky high prices?”
u knw, i had that same thought 2
SAS
“You call this a housing recession??”
Frank,
No, not really. For the sellers, who bought the last few years, more like a depression.
Those 50% off prices are more like what we see here.
(292) Starting – Yes, I am in the Fresno area – Clovis.
(311) JBJB
“California will delay tax refund…”
I bet there will be a mad dash to change W-4s. I have 4 children – no make that 5.
“Disney plans 5 pct job cuts at ABC group”
http://tinyurl.com/crcl9j
Frank,
In 2005, I was called delusional for stating that nominal prices would fall 30-40% off peak. Now as we are just in the midddle innings of this bust, you are actually cheering that prices are ONLY down 20-30%, above examples. Seller puts down 100K on a 500K house in 2005. It now sells for 400K, seller is out 100k plus carrying costs. Don’t even begin to calculate lost opportunity cost.
No surprise, to me, that you spend all your time in the malls.
I haven’t been able to log on here for a while. So how refreshing that I come on here today and see this list with some possibly affordable prices! NJ house prices with 6 digits that start with the number “2”!
Clot,
880.
#35
Wow, Homes in Bergen County are still selling for these sky high prices?? You call this a housing recession?? I will take two of them.
Francis,
You’ll take two because the prices are in your estimate are “sky high”?
And you supposedly deal with Wall Street?
You add nothing to the discussion. Nothing.
Thanks Rich in NNJ.
I enjoyed your comp killer lists from earlier but hunting via the bird eye view of maps.live.com gets tiresome.
don’t you think that the prices on these comp killers are still pretty high?
maybe i’m a little out of the RE loop.
SAS
#35
Wow, Homes in Bergen County are still selling for these sky high prices?? You call this a housing recession?? I will take two of them.
Francis,
You’ll take two because the prices are in your estimate are “sky high”?
And you supposedly deal with Wall Street?
You add nothing to the discussion. Nothing. Just backwards opinion.
Here, let me show you:
“Wow, homes in Bergen County are selling at 2004 levels and below?? And you ONLY call this a recession??”
From prior thread Yikes wrote…
“enlightening stuff, man. as a guy who ate up doom and gloom on this site for 2.5 years, but recently bought a place … it’s nice to see SOME optimism.”
Yikes, I moved 401k money into bonds at 14K on the Dow. Felt pretty confident about getting back in at 8,200 on the Dow so I did (50% of 401k). I pray to see Dow 9,000K so I can bail again and will wait for the next 40% drop on the Dow before I even consider going back in.
I wish you the best of luck on your home purchase (I’m a homeowner as well), but I truly think we are looking at no less than a 25% drop in the next two years. How do you like dem apples? Optimistic about this economy and the new regime in the white house? Feh!
This damn IE8 is nothing but trouble!
SAS,
How long have you been in Northern NJ?
To me, if a sold price is around 2004 without factoring inflation (I don’t want to confuse Francis) then no, prices aren’t sky high.
But that doesn’t mean some jamoke won’t come along thinking the economy is fine (because Wall Streeter’s took bonuses) and end up paying close to list.
Sad
I was thinking those prices were still too high also.
jack those rates up, Fed! Stave off inflation!
#51
That’s sas.
Banksters and the Drug lords.
http://www.iht.com/articles/reuters/2009/01/25/europe/OUKWD-UK-FINANCIAL-UN-DRUGS.php
This is just insanity:
Octuplet Mom May Have Already Had 6 Kids
Neighbors Tell ABC News Woman Is Single Mother Living With Parents
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=6764771&page=1
Stu says:
January 29, 2009 at 10:09 pm
I wish you the best of luck on your home purchase (I’m a homeowner as well), but I truly think we are looking at no less than a 25% drop in the next two years. How do you like dem apples? Optimistic about this economy and the new regime in the white house? Feh!
hate the taste of these apples. we’re content with the purchase (and 4.87 rate), though.
will we feel the same if, a year from now, we’re both out of jobs and our 6 months emergency fund has been drained? sure. out here in bucks, i can only hope/pray it doesn’t tank by 25%. wouldn’t be too depressed by 10%.
so we work and save and stockpile and about the only things we buy outside of food is bullets. i may be able to convince the wife to get her own weapon.
my sig is lonely, needs a friend …
ALREADY HAD 6 babies, and now she adds 8????
those b*tches on the VIEw are going to go nuts with this story tomorrow
john, i hope you can fill us in
“How long have you been in Northern NJ?”
i haven’t been following the sales market for awhile. but, i’m getting it with the damn tax bill.
i have a place in Bergen.
SAS
Rich,
First thank you for this- absolutely fascinating to see things play out. I still remember the first few months on this blog….what an adventure it’s been!
I wonder if, in the dark of night, Richard, Pret or $300 jeans pulls up this site for a trip down memory lane…? Maybe even Booya?
Second, don’t think twice, dump IE asap and go straight to Firefox. I didn’t make the move for years, now I’m constantly amazed at how damn good this thing is, loaded up with a ton of third party plugins. Adblock, autopager, so many great customization items.
It rocks. Having grown up in Redmond, I can tell you the MS stranglehold has far outlived its usefulness….
Bucks is a tough place to make a group of friends if you don’t have kids in school, don’t have family there, or if you don’t hang out at the Legion Hall.
When you move in, you might want to do something revolutionary and invite five of your neighbor families over for wine or something. Two might show.
If you’re still there when your future child goes into Pre-k, you’ll make friends then. A lot of people in the Newtown to Yardley to Langhorne triangle take their kids to a couple of small, but excellent pre-K centers.
That’s when we made our first set of real friends. We still keep in touch with these people…five years later.
I haven’t made a list in a while. This is why I am short RE and China…
1. Option Armageddon STARTS up in April.
2. Unemployment numbers are stagerring and it’s early in the game.
3. China is already slowing their U.S. Treasury purchases (uh oh).
4. Protectionism beginning to kick in.
5. Oil prices creeping back up and gold is over 900.
6. Earning reports have been deplorable. Everyone went gaga over Amazon’s earnings today and they grew their EPS to a monstrous .52 which was all of .4 better than last years 4th quarter. And this kind of growth is being cheered? All of the earnings expectations have been reduced to squat and half the companies can’t even meet them. And the craziest part of the whole equation is that nothing really slowed down until November so we are yet to witness a full three month quarter in the doldrums.
7. Credit card delinquencies accelerating.
8. Housing values falling at an accelerating rate.
9. Tarp I wasted.
10. Lower Fed lending rates wasted.
11. Tarp II is a pork roll, egg and cheese sandwich.
12. States headed into bankruptcy by end of the year.
13. Muni bonds defaulting? Oh my!
14. National debt up 4 trillion in less than one year and on pace to hit 10 trillion in two short years.
15. No black day occurred yet and they ALWAYS happen in major market corrections.
16. All large banks are insolvent.
17. Wealthy have sheep convinced of Laffer Curve reality. Tax rate during late 30’s early 40s was 92%. Today they b*tch and threaten to leave since it might go from 35 to 38%.
18. Layoffs crazy in the last 3 weeks.
19. Stores closing everywhere.
20. Everything our government has done since May of 2007 is the exact opposite of what should have been done!!!
Now that 10 trillion will have been squandered making false floors and the initial problem still remains, what will we use to pay the unemployed and despot when we realize that the only solution is to finally rip that band-aid off.
Skep? Will you still think that the continued pillaging of our sons and daughters futures was the best solution to a collapsing stock market?
I still think we should have endured greater short-term pain so we could have gotten back on the road to recovery sooner. Now all we have done is maintained a bit of the wealth that the upper class had in the stock market as the market caps for the private sector slowly creep to zero.
So I made a lot of friends a week or two ago.
After hearing people complaining about bonuses being down significantly, I told colleagues that NO ONE in our goddamn*d TARP-sucking firm, myself included, should be getting anything. I meant it.
Sure, many people were innocent, but why in the hell should a grocery worker in Kansas or mechanic OH pay to bail out a bank, so they could then turn around pay dividends, bonuses etc. It’s just wrong.
I heard all sorts of rationalizations, in end anyone still working in this business should be thankful to still be employed, as long as it lasts.
At least Obama is ripping them. Now, if he’d grow a set and take these guys down – make the senior execs pay dearly for all this- then at least there’d be a bit of justice.
Oh wait. What industry was the biggest donor to the inauguration? Oh yeah, that’s right…banks.
More than one million French workers downed tools yesterday in the first general strike to hit a major industrialised nation since the start of the global financial crisis.
Unions said more than two million public and private sector workers took to the streets across France to protest against President Nicolas Sarkozy’s handling of the economic crisis, saying too much had been done to bail out fat cats and banks, and not enough to protect jobs and help workers make ends meet.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/30/france-general-strike
The French striking? What a novel idea! Do they ever work?
I represent that #11 pork roll, egg and cheese comment.
You could have slid scrapple in there instead. Taylor Ham, even.
#62, Steve
if more people were as noble as you, we woudln’t even be in this situation. I commend you.
Fox – Glenn Beck picks up on the story.
http://www.foxnews.com/video2/video08.html?maven_referralObject=3479955&maven_referralPlaylistId=&sRevUrl=http://www.foxnews.com/
And to the folks pondering the impending return to the single income household…it can only happen if there is a nationwide return to job security, including a defined pension plans, for the single bread-winner.
There is more at play than a bucolic lifestyle.
Yes, I’ve been trying this for the first time in my life. One income.
I’m doing all of John’s Good Wife List items. I volunteer. I joined community stuff.
I hemmed a pair of jeans today. I had forgotten that I know how to cook. By 6 pm, we’re fat & happy. Today, I baked a coconut cake with peanut butter fudge and banana filling. We had quick roasted chops with a nice crispy coating, fresh veggies, and spicy mushroom rice.
I don’t stress out or yell at my family anymore. Before, when I’d get home from work at 6 pm, the kid was screaming, Dad was frustrated, homework was not completed and to be checked, the house was a mess of cat hair and gunk, nobody wrote out the checks for the bills due, it was past time to leave for swimming/church/xxxxx, and I hadn’t peed in five hours.
I love it this way. But it’s not going to last. I’ll go back to work when I find a job that won’t make me crazy.
Because who knows when that single income will be gone?
I will be working not for the money, but for the security.
Ben,
Thanks – but to be honest, more often than not, feel quite ashamed to have had a career in this business, esp when I see these slimeballs screw over our country on a regular basis.
I mean, after all this, buying a $50mil jet? In what world is that even remotely acceptable??
When all is said and done we probably will see the reduction in the purchasing power of the average household (and population as a whole) by 30-40% – this is basically the return to mid-70s minus some more to account for the destruction of the manufacturing base. The only question is how we get there – choose a weapon between 25% unemployment and meaningful inflation (not hyper-, but on par with late 70s but without matching pay increases). As bad as it sounds for a saver in me, I’d vote for the inflation.
Meh, the French strike/protest over mismatched socks.
Not impressed.
When they start getting uppity in Japan, I’ll start paying attention.
Steve (#68) As obnoxious as it sounds, buying a $50 M jet , with probably 75% U.S. content, and which will be in the air 2hrs/day on average, is much more of an economic stimulus and much less of a load on the Earth’s resources than buying 50,000 Chinese-made flat-screen TVs burning 400 W each for 8 hrs/day…
Looking for 1999 prices right now is a tad unrealistic. It might take a couple of years or more. Don’t forget “bloody monday” was only 4 days ago.
A pictorial glimpse of the mortgage situation.
A pictorial glimpse of the mortgage situation.
Thanks Rich. And Grim, thank you, too.
From the Wall Street Journal:
Option ARMs See Rising Defaults
Defaults on a popular form of mortgage that gave home buyers a choice of how much to pay each month are rising and could rival those on subprime loans, potentially causing more trouble for investors and banks.
Nearly $750 billion of option adjustable-rate mortgages, or option ARMs, were issued from 2004 to 2007, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry publication. Rising delinquencies are creating fresh challenges for companies such as Bank of America Corp., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. that acquired troubled option-ARM lenders.
…
Option ARMs, which have been largely abandoned, give borrowers multiple payment options, including a minimum payment that often was less than the monthly interest due. Borrowers who made the minimum payment on a regular basis often saw their loan balances grow, also known as “negative amortization.” And with home prices falling, more than 55% of borrowers with option ARMs owe more than their homes are valued at, according to J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
As of December, 28% of option ARMs were delinquent or in foreclosure, according to LPS Applied Analytics, a data firm that analyzes mortgage performance. That compares with 23% in September. An additional 7% involve properties that have already been taken back by the lenders. By comparison, 6% of prime loans have problems. Problems with subprime are still the worst. Just over half of subprime loans were delinquent, in foreclosure, or related to bank-owned properties as of December. The nearly $750 billion of option ARMs issued from 2004 to 2007 compares with roughly $1.9 trillion each of subprime and jumbo mortgages in that period.
Nearly 61% of option ARMs originated in 2007 will eventually default, according to a recent analysis by Goldman Sachs, which assumed a further 10% decline in home prices. That compares with a 63% default rate for subprime loans originated in 2007. Goldman estimates more than half of all option ARMs outstanding will default.
Good gawd there are some ugly houses in that lot.
Wall Street Bonuses May Go Way of Dodo Amid Bailouts (Update1)
From the Record:
Hackensack developer files for Chapter 11
SkyMark Holdings Inc., a Hackensack developer, and its CEO, Robert L’Abbate of Washington Township, have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, apparently victims of the worst real estate market in decades.
Heidi Sorvino, the company’s bankruptcy lawyer, said today she could not immediately comment on the filing.
One of SkyMark’s recent high-profile proposals was for a 2.2-million-square-foot office park on a 33-acre site that once held a paper mill near Route 46 and the New Jersey Turnpike in Ridgefield Park. But the company dropped that plan some time ago, and has since talked about possibly constructing residential units and big-box retail space and residential units on the site, according to Ridgefield Park Mayor George Fosdick. It has not made any formal proposals to the town, however, Fosdick said.
“Certainly we’re distressed by this [the bankruptcy filing],” Fosdick said. “But these are tough times. To have a man who was very sincere about wanting to do something good — this has to be very wrenching.”
Barbara (27)-
In that case, it’s a potential short sale. Your agent should be comfortable enough with the process to suggest within any offer you make that he begin the short sale negotiation as part of the deal.
You’re much more likely to have an offer accepted on an upside-down property if you show the owner that: a) there’s little likelihood of an offer coming that will break him even; and b) you have an agent with the expertise to get him out of him misery using a non-judicial solution.
If the owner is dumb enough to rent the place out or continue to hold it and let the mortgage bury him, there’s not much you can do. However, you’d be surprised how many underwater borrowers will open up to a short sale, once they understand what’s involved.
Do we know this guy?
http://www.courierpostonline.com/article/20090130/NEWS01/901300354&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL
BC (43)-
Duly noted. Impressive late-session action.
yikes (57)-
She’s raised the bar for welfare mothers everywhere.
Stu (61)-
I’m taping that list to the wall above my desk.
Might be time for another taste of the FAZ.
grim @ 82
and i bet those dumb cops think they are doing their job too!
SAS
Pat (65)-
Scrapple is disgusting. I wouldn’t feed it to my dog.
And I’ve been known to eat brains & eggs for breakfast.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jan/29/stimulus-includes-plum-lawmakers-son/
Stimulus has plum for lawmaker’s son
A top Republican is demanding an investigation into whether the more than $2 billion for national parks in the House stimulus package is proper in light of the fact that the chief lobbiest for the National Parks Conservation Association is the son of House Appropriations Committe Chairman David R. Obey.
The money included in the stimulus bill that passes Mr. Obey’s committee – $2.25 billion – was about equal to the National Park Service’s total yearly budget and would be a staggering increase and almost three times the $802 million that the Senate Appropriations Committee approved for park spending in its stimulus bill.
lol
reminds me when a police department will spend like 40+ hrs of man power and spend like 200k…
just to bust some guy sitting in a basement eating cheese doddles and smokin a $40 bag of weed.
and then the cops high five each other cause “they caught us a bad guy”.
Meanwhile, your govt ships in drugs, launder the money to wall st, the launders don’t pay tax (timothy geithner), and when they want money…they scream depression!!! depression!!
and the dumb politicans whom take kickback from the same launders pass “bailout bills” & “stimulus packages”.
and you cops puff out your chest.
ha ha ha
btw: you might likely to get injured or killed sticking you butt out on the turnpike writing tkts from the traffic…than any dumb pothead.
SAS
Cindy (88)-
How dare you question the secretariat?
Any monies they deign to spend will benefit you.
I can’t believe people choose to buy these houses like these. I would leave NJ altogether before I bought any of these dumps.
Thanks, Rich! Very interesting indeed.
Pat says:
January 29, 2009 at 10:48 pm
Bucks is a tough place to make a group of friends if you don’t have kids in school, don’t have family there, or if you don’t hang out at the Legion Hall.
When you move in, you might want to do something revolutionary and invite five of your neighbor families over for wine or something. Two might show.
If you’re still there when your future child goes into Pre-k, you’ll make friends then. A lot of people in the Newtown to Yardley to Langhorne triangle take their kids to a couple of small, but excellent pre-K centers.
That’s when we made our first set of real friends. We still keep in touch with these people…five years later.
isn’t that the case … well, anywhere? most people have lived there forever or already have their group of friends. The only place to make friends easily in your 30s is NYC … and that’s because most everyone is in the same boat – from a remote corner of the US, no friends, tough city.
was shoveling the driveway yesterday and some lady walking her dog stopped to talk. then, the two neighbors who were running in the snow with their kids, came over to introduce themselves. maybe we got lucky? or they were just being nice?
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/politics/cal/la-me-furlough30-2009jan30,0,5602884.story?track=rss
Remember last week I said this had to go before a judge? – It did and – state workers will now take a 9% paycut (two days a month furlough) – that doesn’t include the governor’s order to cut state agency payrolls by another 10%, so layoffs are probably in the picture as well.
(90) Clot – Just imagine that situation times 100.
You’ll be surprised to know I didn’t hear helicopters overhead last night. No shots fired yet. It won’t be a pretty thing when the disability checks don’t arrive come Monday.
Neighboring (union) school districts have started their layoffs. My district is holding strong because we have held onto our reserve. It won’t last long under these conditions, though.
First time poster here, long time lurker. Question for Clot Re: #15, Can you give a quick explanation of what you mean by “assuming 95% of the homes listed are not for sale”?
I am in the current position of being a 1st time homebuyer, and thanks to the incredible wealth of informative posts by grim and others on this site, I am happily sitting on the side-lines.
homey (97)-
95% of the homes you see listed are not actually for sale, because they are priced-to-fantasy by sellers who aren’t sufficiently motivated to do what it takes to actually accomplish a sale in the current market.
These sellers are trolling for a sucker. This just in: much like Hummers, no new suckers are currently being created.
Grim: Ref 82. My sister used to live in Franklin. BiL drove an 18 wheeler. The photo you see could have been their front yard.
CAMDEN — Faced with a sputtering economy and falling revenues, Camden County freeholders on Thursday asked all county employees to accept wage freezes and other concessions. Layoffs could be an alternative this year if unions decline to cooperate, Freeholder-Director Louis Cappelli Jr. said.
http://www.courierpostonline.com/article/20090130/NEWS01/901300350&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL
“Do we know this guy?”
Plax’s bil?
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jan2009/tc20090129_529117.htm?chan=rss_topStories_ssi_5
I guess it really was Amazon’s “best Christmas ever.”
“Idle Construction Workers See Foundation for Hope in Stimulus Bill”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/29/AR2009012903998.html?hpid=artslot
Believe it was Cramer who said it has enough construction money in it to pay for one Big Dig and employ 5000 workers.
96 Cindy
NYC is looking at 23,000 potential layoffs, 15,000 being in the Dept of Ed.
Hey Clot, can I still come in and fill out an application?
Clot/Stu,
I am as bearish as they come. That said, be on guard. In the near future, we may see the fed guaranteeing mortgages at 4.00-4.50%. This will give the banks the impetus to lend, with the fed as a backstop. In addition to this, watch for the suspension, maybe permanent, of mark to market. The bank stocks will explode, it doesn’t matter if they are dead. Remember, this is the stock market.
It is reasonable to expect a 50% retracement from the lows. The above, quantitative easing, may just be the fuel. Every major bear has a vicious counter trend rally. Just food for thought.
If this occurs, it may be the best short of our lifetime. I have taken many shorts off the table. Those that I still have working are joined at the hip with calls, for protection.
One other item, who would have predicted that quantitative easing would replace goldilocks/subprime as the new buzz word. The next buzz word, protectionism. It’s already building its foundation.
All Disclaimers.
I dunno, Yikes. Maybe it was the specific town. You needed a crowbar to get in there. It was more homegrown than Newtown. Most of our neighbors went to the local high school or the nearby private Catholic High School.
You might find that every one of those friendly neighbors of yours grew up in NJ, on LI or in Philly… and moved there within the last ten years.
BC Bob [4],
One sole exception. One. When Upper Bergen County starts bleeding like this consistently, then I’ll know.
http://www.structuredfinancenews.com/news/189664-1.html?CMP=OTC-RSS
“Appraisals Said Hurting Home Sales”
Appraisals are killing sales, said Bernard Markstein, director of economic forecasting at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). “Some appraisals are coming in below building costs,” he said.
Well, Yeah…
Teaneck, Dumont and Bergenfield are not prestigous BC. Go ahead and kill me but when I see towns like Ramsey, Wyckoff, Allendale, etc. hemorraging… then I’ll know.
Appraising at tear-down/recycling value, not replacement value, for some new construction doesn’t seem out of line to me.
Gary [107],
Why do I picture Eli getting stuffed, QB sneak, on 4th and 1, against the Eagles?
Gary,
What list are you looking at?
I see Old Tappan, Ridgewood, Ramsey, Wyckoff above.
Gary[109],
You now sound like a realtor. Price declines are regional, never in the northeast. Impossible in Bergen, we are tied to NY. Well OK, but not in this part of Bergen. OOPS, I meant to say my town. Sorry, was only referring to my part of town. Onr final caveat, my block.
HELLO?
I have to hit the showers and go to an appointment but one more thing: those houses are ugly as sh*t and in so-so towns. One or two exceptions, that’s it. Go at it, but I’m still skeptical. When a CHC in Northern Rivervale is pleading for a buyer with a 30% minimum reduction from peak, then I’ll sit up. Carry on….
One.
Lost 104 – Maybe you should try Montclair. Our BOE seems to have an unlimited budget!
Some anecdotal reports from my evening out last night –
No line in the Penn Station Starbucks, except for the restroom.
Starbucks has switched their soymilk from the premium Silk brand to a no-name generic.
When my companion declined to order anything, the barista repeatedly asked ‘Are you sure I can’t get you anything? Not even a glass of water?’ with an air of desperation.
Apologies to Stu. I promise not to go there again for at least a few more months!
BC Bob:
I am well aware of your bearishness ;)
IMO, 4% interest rates will only help the refi market, which in essence, hurts the banks as they will be taking in less interest in the long term from the few people who have been in their homes long enough to not be underwater. The qualifications to obtain a new loan already price out more than half the population on FICO score alone, let alone the 20 to 30% downpayment required. Add in the fact that everyone who wants to buy is overly hesitant because they want to wait for housing to hit bottom. IMO, the 4% interest rate is a great reward for those who played by the rules (for a change), but the amount of cash it will put into the zombie banks coffers will not be enough to even put a minor dent in their ultra negative balance sheets or help diminish the abundance of housing supply available in the market.
With that said, bring on the 4% interest rates…it will give me more short-term cash to invest in the shorts!
Disclaimer: My brain has either ‘gone on holiday by mistake’ or else ‘my thumbs have gone weird’!
And now onto training my team of American job steelers in India ;)
Is Bloomberg crying wolf?
Unless New York City gets the education funding in the federal stimulus plan, as many as 15,000 teachers could be laid off, he said.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e69d2ed6-ee76-11dd-b791-0000779fd2ac.html
Stu [118],
I agree with all that. Let me more more transparent, hah, hah! I am only talking about market psychology, not fundamentals, regarding a bear market rally. Throw out the financial engineers, roll down the red carpet for behavioral economists.
BC (105)-
See the new PMI guidelines on conventional mortgages? Jesus wouldn’t qualify. Take the rates to 0, and it doesn’t matter now. 20% DPs and 740 FICOs aren’t a dime-a-dozen these days.
Essentially, we now have a mortgage market in which the only insurer is the gubmint (FHA). Of course, all the old subprime & option ARM fraudsters have gravitated to this brave, new world.
Things are bad…and getting worse.
Rich,
Great work. We still need to get together for a beer in MP some time.
On NYC I heard on NPR that the sale tax receipts for the last quarter are down badly. That would reinforce how bad the retail numbers for Dec were.
Pat, actually there is a lot less financial security when both parents work. My 30 something cousins all survive on dual incomes and need every cent. They have twice the chance of losing a job them I do, however even if I lost my job my wife could re-enter the work force or we both could start lookin and whoever lands a job first goes to work the other stays home. So Dual income couples have twice the chance of losing a job and it is twice as hard to find work when they lose a job. Plus single earner guys like me live modestly and save, my 30 something cousins have mcmansions and the wives say what am I working for if I can’t go on vacations, live in a mcmansion and drive a new car. I 100% agree that a dual income couple who lives off one income is the best off, but somehow it does not work that way.
Stu (118)-
The refi boom is already over. Everybody with sufficient equity to refi has done it.
Our mortgage office is still getting refi calls, but everything over the past two weeks has been underwater borrowers, trying to refi negative equity.
One bonus: the processors create “adverse” files on the bad rejects and then hand them over to me for short sale solicitations. Good times.
“One bonus: the processors create “adverse” files on the bad rejects and then hand them over to me for short sale solicitations. Good times.”
Is this a good thing?
U.S. economy shrank by 3.8% in the fourth quarter, the government reports – the biggest decline in 26 years. More soon.
No recession here.
Stu (126)-
Yeah. Good for me.
Is it time to load the last bu11et in the Fed gun and shoot the rates the other way to 8%.
If credit is still not flowing, then it is time to accept that it never will. We called the fact that the banks would hoard any cash available to repair balance sheets. Companies across the board are now pulling the shutters and shedding expenditure (jobs). Capital preservation seems to be the new mantra.
The front edge of the storm is here. Its time to see how strong the shelter is.
Stu (127)-
Double that, and you probably have the actual number.
Price index showing deflation!
http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=438009&cust=bloomberg&year=2009
From MarketWatch:
U.S. GDP contracts at 3.8% pace in fourth quarter
The U.S. economy contracted at a 3.8% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. This is the largest contraction since the first quarter of 1982. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting a negative 5.5% growth rate in the fourth quarter. The weakness in the fourth quarter was masked by a buildup in inventories, which adds to output even if they are unwanted. Real final sales for domestic product, which excludes inventories, decreased 5.1% in the fourth quarter. This is the biggest drop since 1980. Inflation moderated in the fourth quarter. The core consumer prices increased as a 0.6% rate in the quarter, and rose 2.2% for the year. Headline PCE declined at a record 5.5% in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, the economy grew at a 1.3% rate, the weakest since 2001.
lost (104)-
Sure. Just be aware that you need to wear latex and refer to me as “Your Excellency”. :)
Clot,
“Double that, and you probably have the actual number.”
Agreed.
Building inventories?
Sounds like businesses aren’t cutting excess capacity.
Given the layoff announcements, this isn’t something I would have expected.
IMHO, points to continuing layoffs in the near-term.
“Springsteen said Sunday’s show would be “a 12-minute party” that would be like what would happen if a concert fan showed up at Giants Stadium 2 hours 48 minutes late because of traffic and other problems on the New Jersey Turnpike.”
“As for the song list, Springsteen said: “Who decides? The Boss decides. People suggest, hint. They cajole.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/30/sports/football/30springsteen.html?ref=football
Regardless, my shorts are going to have to endure some more short-term pain.
Seriously, only -3.8%. Bogus numbers…
Yes, useless Chinese crap sitting on store shelves is saving us!
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – The U.S. economy contracted at a 3.8% annualized rate in the fourth quarter but the decline would have been worse except that the government counts an unwanted buildup of goods on store shelves as growth.
A clearer picture of the scope of the weakness in the fourth quarter, which excludes the inventory buildup, contracted at a 5.1% pace, the weakest in 28 years.
Even with inventories, the growth rate is the worst since 1982.
Seriously, only -3.8%. Bogus numbers…
-5.1% if you net out inventory build.
grim:
Thanks! It will be -8% next quarter.
62 Steve, I’m in the industry and agree with you. My foreign bailout firm hasn’t announced our numbers yet but their is speculation that they will be nearly 0 if not 0 for all. Most people here are really pi$$ed about it. I don’t know if my blue collar family upbringing has anything to do with this or not but I find the sense of entitlement among my coworkers disgusting. Even with strickly base income we are still in the top 5% of earnings in this country and we work for a firm that would be in dire straights were it not for government money.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/29/business/norris30.1-418408.php
BC (105)
“The next buzz word, protectionism…”
“The Risk of New Protectionism”
International Herald Tribune – Davos
“Alan Blinder, a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve and now an economics professor at Princeton, said he did not think nationalization would be the first or second choice of America’s policy makers, but that it could be the third or fourth.
And he added that the risk of credit protectionism would rise if the banks were nationalized.”
BC (136)-
I smell career-killer.
Clot (125)
“The refi boom is already over. Everybody with sufficient equity to refi has done it.”
Maybe not – How low are we talking here? 4% would interest some like me – others I know who have low enough rates that the 4.85 wasn’t a motivator.
3.5% – 4% Then you pull in some responsible borrowers who might use the “found” monthly difference stimulating the economy a bit.
Who knows what these yahoos have planned…
Clot [144],
No way. It’s all marketing, new tour. You can’t flush a 35 year career down the toiltet with a 12 minute sprint. On top of that, 70-80% of the nation is half in the bag.
general observation – all the houses in the above analysis (which is a great analysis) that sold at around $400k and above, still look like crap for the price.
740 FICO borrower with more than 25% equity refinancing out of his 5 handle loan into a 4 handle?
Great for the borrower, bad news for the lenders and investors.
Default risk for that borrower is very low, and those cash flows are as good as golden.
Now he leaves the pool and joins another whose cash flows are significantly lower.
At the same time, those older pools are stripped of their best loans, only the trash remains.
Oh bother.
prediction: 250k one-bedrooms in good areas of NYC … by 2011, probably
http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2009/01/29/2009-01-29_mayor_bloombergs_grim_doomsday_budget_cu.html
BC (146)-
See: Jagger, Mick.
trader 142: “Even with strickly base income we are still in the top 5% of earnings in this country ”
To be honest, being “in the top 5% in earnings” does not mean much when you take into account pensions, guaranteed for life job security for some of the bottom 95% jobs, and cost of living in NY. Total compensation would be more appropriate term for this. (I’m sure WS people would still be in top 1%).
It is just like UAW parasites say that Toyota workers make as much as they do, so UAW members should not see their benefits reduced (but T makes profit and does not need billions from taxpayers). UAW parasites may have about the same wages as Toyota workers, but UAW benefits are astronomical (not even counting those UAW golfclubs and retreats which are naturally essential bare minimum union-services).
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/Police-Negotiate-with-AC-Casino-Gunmen.html
atlantic city really is in brutal shape
grim (148)-
Precisely. Talk about unintended consequences.
(148) Grim – I’m just sayin…
good for the borrower…
Again, you never know what these yahoos are going to do…
“career-killer”
For me it died a long time ago.
I predict:
Born in the USA
Born to Run.
Can we have a sweepstake on the age of the songs. I say he doesn’t get out of the 80’s.
re: #151 jamil – no need to start a class war here.
Go play in traffic already.
“See: Jagger, Mick.”
Clot that’s like comparing gold to the fed’s balance sheet.
John, I agree with what you’ve said about dual income earners spending up to the dual income level, generally.
Also, as you’ve stated in the past, it’s probably true that some employers favor the employee with the stay-at-home support person. So that increases the security of the single income family (all else equal).
However, in this current environment, those security laws don’t hold true. Dual income couples are no longer spending up to the dual income, no wage earner has that extra security blanked on the job, and finding even a single job takes longer. So two jobs IS the place to be right now.
BC (146)-
Also see: Jackson, Janet.
“You can’t flush a 35 year career down the toilet with a 12 minute sprint.”
PGC [155],
Born to Run
Badlands or Working on a Dream
Glory Days or Mary’s Place
The Rising
#155
With any two filler songs in between.
PGC (155)-
I usually beat my wife at halftime of the Super Bowl.
“Also see: Jackson, Janet.”
Clot,
Now we are comparing Gold to HOV.
What about U-2?
This year, I’m not even watching the Super Bowl.
Liverpool-Chelsea instead.
BC (163)-
Outlier.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A
Pat – Have you seen this Elizabeth Warren Youtube on the Coming Collapse of the Middle Class? About a year old and an hour long. But it was so good I had it in my favorites.
Yes, I’ve seen it.
She nailed it, Roubini-style.
I still get the feeling that she thinks the destruction of the middle class is unintended, though. Why else would she sign on to oversee the dispersal of TARP money (the financial equivalent of bandleader on the Titanic)?
Meredith Whitney’s coined an acronym for the bad bank:
Bank
Asset
Repository
Fund
This idea is now officially DOA.
#160 BC
Glory Days. He wouldn’t dare!
Although if he did he could wheel out Billy J for a segue into Allentown.
Why? Guilt maybe. These are the people…the Elizabeth Warrens of the world…who were entrusted with the edumacation of the professional workforce.
If the breakdown of societal infrastructure was indeed unintentional, then it was due to ignorance and poor education rather than any immorality fostered in a home environment.
“Glory Days. He wouldn’t dare!”
PGC,
I hope not. However, he’s playing to a national audience, not me and my 20 drunk frat boys.
avoid rt 1 north and all its backroads alternatives for the entirety of the day. My husband is stuck, and I mean stuck in traffic just trying to get my kid to school off rt 18 due to a Rt #1 North water main break just south of woodbridge (I think). I wanted him to just turn around and bring my son home for the day because I doubt this will look much better at 2:30-3:00.
“Although if he did he could wheel out Billy J for a segue into Allentown.”
PGC,
Not necessary. He could go right into Youngstown. Plus Bill Joel may be stuck in his car, pinned between two trees on 95.
(168) Clot – She seems genuinely surprised to discover that the huge housing bills made the difference.
But is that the chicken or the egg? The woman enters the work force and now has the money for the larger house…or….they want the larger house so the woman enters the work force????
At any rate, the increased spending was not on food or clothing…it was housing….that seemed to be a fact she did not expect to uncover.
JB, 176 in mod.
Anyone actually go into a big box electronics stores and do any haggling? I hear all these news reports but I’m skeptical. Thinking about a post superbowl flat screen purchase. I know my model and the current price/price that I want it for.
Smoke ’em if you got ’em. Buy ’em now if you don’t
Senate Set to Pass CHIP Bill
Funded by Cigarette Tax Increase
The Senate Jan. 29 was poised to pass legislation (H.R. 2) funding reauthorization of the state children’s health insurance program with tax increases on tobacco products, primarily through a 61 cent-per-pack hike on cigarettes.
The Senate kept the same bill number as the House but inserted its language instead, as legislation changing the tax code must originate in the House. The legislation would return the program to its original name, the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP).
The House passed its version of the H.R. Jan. 14
A manager’s amendment, which incorporates technical changes into the bill and any amendments that the two sides agree on, also was expected to pass. It did not make tax-related changes to the legislation.
As we go soci@list, Europe is going capitalist —
Germany Approves Major Stimulus Package
That Cuts Marginal Tax Rate to 14 Percent
BERLIN—The German cabinet Jan. 27 cut Germany’s marginal tax rate from 15 percent to 14 percent, with the tax allowance increased to 8,004 euros ($10,372), as it formally approved Germany’s second economic stimulus package.
“This package of measures is our response to the international financial crisis,” said Chancellor Angela Merkel. “We have no time to lose.”
“It’s the most difficult decision that I had to make during my time in office,” Merkel said of the 50 billion euro ($65 billion) package. “But “not acting now would also plunge us into a deeper crisis and into deeper debt,” she added.
The package was introduced Jan. 12, and also includes employment incentives and a car bonus program of 1.5 billion euros ($1.9 billion).
Glos announced at the same press conference that Germany’s gross domestic product is expected to decline by 2.25 percent in 2009.
“We’re hoping that the measures Germany is taking will develop together with international measures in the second half of 2009,” Glos said.
#174 BC
And finish off with The River.
hoping that there is NOT a wardrobe malfunction amongst the E Street band. No offense E streeters, you guys rock and all.
Well Wolfgangs was packed to the rafters last night, what recession? Steaks, bacon, Mozz were being served like they were going out of style.
“And finish off with The River.”
PGC,
Too deep for this audience.
By the way, a friend of mine, her brother works with the guy who got Mary pregnant, down at the river. Present day, there’s a party at Mary’s Place.
“hoping that there is NOT a wardrobe malfunction amongst the E Street band.”
Barb,
Blue jeans. $300? Don’t know.
Nice Comps! Thanks for lifting up the skirt of real estate sales.
185.
BC I’ve got to believe that they are still sporting the 40 dollar hard worn Levis.
Appraising at tear-down/recycling value, not replacement value, for some new construction doesn’t seem out of line to me.
Sounds like a supply/demand indicator.
Ew. Keep their skirts down.
Isn’t that ‘lifting up the veil to reveal the true wrinkled and spotted face of real estate sales.’
nice presentation.
watching base prices decline is sort of like time travel- backwards.
http://www.europac.net/externalframeset.asp?from=home&id=15312
Peter Schiff’s newsletter talks about this weeks attacks on his credibility. Interesting stuff.
Meet the new boss, you know the rest.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/01302009/business/big_bucks_for_sec_boss_152624.htm
740 FICO borrower with more than 25% equity refinancing out of his 5 handle loan into a 4 handle?
Great for the borrower, bad news for the lenders and investors.
I think the issue here is to stem further asset price deflation. The sellers at the margin are bringing asset prices down. Large bulk of homeowners have equity. They will give up some future earnings, so their assets on the balance sheet is not written down further and more capital has to be injected into the bank to spur lending. So stop the writedowns and banks will feel confident in their balance sheet stability to start lending again. Don’t bring down asset prices so much that even viable borrowers will be underwater. that’s my 1 1/4 cents (after writedown of asset value).
Mary is ok, I met her a few times, she is a BSD over there. Most people at FINRA make peanuts.
With the coming storm and wolf at the door, pay attention to the three little pigs, and buy a brick or stone house, preferably with a steel roof.
Rich, great stuff. I don’t have time to read all the comments today, so I’m sure I’m just repeating what everyone else is saying, but this type of info is really heartening.
I’ve been reading this blog since early 2006, back when the like of Frank (before there was a Frank) argued that prices never fall and poor James was forced to dig up ancient NYTimes articles about the 1990s bust to remind the optimists of history.
I love Frank. When the entire economy has collapsed, when the U.S. dollar has been abandoned for barter, when the country breaks down into territories ruled by gangs of tribal thugs, he’ll post “Recession, what recession? You see the way people are fighting over scrap metal? I’ll take two wheel barrows full!”
Well Wolfgangs was packed to the rafters last night, what recession? Steaks, bacon, Mozz were being served like they were going out of style.
Given the O-administration’s stance on executive compensation and bonuses, they very well may be going out of style.
Given the situation, this may very well be the rational response.
Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we may be working behind an apple cart.
#196 – Post of the day
I LOVE IT – they are talking about creating a MUNI CZAR – putting money in my pockets now that is what I am talking about.
No grimski…THIS IS POST OF THE DAY….
Polish Sausage
‘In what aisle could I find the Polish sausage?’
The clerk looks at him and says, ‘Are you Polish?’
The guy (clearly offended) says, ‘Well, yes I am.
But let me ask you something.
If I had asked for Italian sausage,
would you ask me if I was Italian?
Or if I had asked for German Bratwurst,
would you ask me if I was German?
Or if I asked for a kosher hot dog.
would you ask me if I was Jewish?
Or if I had asked for a taco,
would you ask if I was Mexican?’
‘If I asked for some Irish whiskey,
would you ask if I was Irish?’
The clerk says, ‘Well, no, I probably wouldn’t!’
With deep self-righteous indignation, the guy says,
‘Well then, why did you ask me if I’m Polish
because I asked for Polish sausage?’
The clerk replied, ‘Because you’re in Home Depot’
From MarketWatch:
Fannie Mae extends suspension of evictions until Feb. 28
Fannie Mae said Friday it is extending its suspension of evictions from Fannie Mae-owned properties to Feb. 28. The suspension applies to all single-family properties including owner-occupied properties that have been foreclosed upon as well as foreclosed properties rented out. Fannie Mae began implementing a new policy in January that allows qualified renters in Fannie Mae-owned foreclosed properties to stay in their homes.
this board is reading like a Jericho season, sans the nukes.
Correction, they are not extending the foreclosure moratorium.
Cindy: Elizabeth Warren Youtube
Good video. She tries to portray that 2 income family is worse off than 1 income family in 1970’s. Great. But the key question to answer is how does 1 income family cope up in today’s environment.
From Freddie:
FREDDIE MAC EXTENDS EVICTION SUSPENSION UNTIL MARCH, LAUNCHES RENTAL OPTION FOR FORECLOSED BORROWERS, TENANTS
Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) today announced it is extending its suspension of evictions triggered by foreclosures on single family properties with Freddie Mac-owned mortgages through February 28, 2009. Freddie Mac is simultaneously launching a new strategy to offer qualified owner-occupants and tenants leases so they can rent the properties on a month-to-month basis after foreclosure.
“First and foremost, Freddie Mac’s REO Rental Option is intended to help cushion the impact of foreclosure on families who own or rent homes with Freddie Mac-owned mortgages,” said David M. Moffett, Chief Executive Officer of Freddie Mac. “At the same time keeping foreclosed properties occupied and in better repair will support local property values and promote a faster recovery in the housing market.”
Under the REO Rental Option, leases will be offered to current renters on a month-to-month basis at market rents or the rent amount they were paying prior to foreclosure, whichever is less. The rent for former owner-occupants will be the market rent, which will determined by the property management firm Freddie Mac contracted to manage the program.
To qualify, current tenants and former owner-occupants must be able to demonstrate they have adequate income to pay the monthly rental amount. The home must also meet applicable building codes, or can be affordably brought into compliance, to be eligible.
This actually looks like a significant shift in the GSE position on foreclosures. Looks like Freddie and Fannie intend to foreclose but instead of eviction, offer a rental option to prior owners or tenants.
Wow!
197: All statements from O came with an expiration date.
I love especially this:
(O during campaign):
“We can’t drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our homes on 72 degrees at all times . . . and then just expect that other countries are going to say OK.”
President O depicted in adoring NYT article:
“The capital flew into a bit of a tizzy when, on his first full day in the White House, President O was photographed in the Oval Office without his suit jacket. There was, however, a logical explanation: Mr. O, who hates the cold, had cranked up the thermostat.
“He’s from Hawaii, O.K.?” said Mr. O’s senior adviser, David Axelrod, who occupies the small but strategically located office next door to his boss. “He likes it warm. You could grow orchids in there.”
Or maybe they are so deep in REO that they have no way to effectively manage their inventory.
NJGator says:
January 30, 2009 at 8:16 am
Some anecdotal reports from my evening out last night – No line in the Penn Station Starbucks, except for the restroom.
Gates: where is it located?
Stu says:
January 30, 2009 at 8:22 am
And now onto training my team of American job steelers in India ;)
steelers? I think you have too much Superbowl on the brain…..
#204 SG
One income in the most part will be better off than dual income. If the main job is lost, you have two people available to go for work. Also one income will have scaled back from their DINKy days.
If they are in different fields, you have diversification. At worst both go back to shift work and work differing shifts. Someone is home with the kids while the other is working.
Makes me smile.
From Craigs List.
ESTATE SALE- Home to be sold
ENTIRE CONTENTS OF ELEGANT RIDGEWOOD HEIGHTS HOME
Including Antique Furniture and One Owner (100 year old lady)
212–how much are they asking for the lady?
so right now, we are basically at 2002 or maybe 2003 price levels and the decline is not slowing at all. It is starting to look like the entire gains of the bubble will be wiped out by the time this is all over. 1997 prices?
PGC: Can you contact me at my handle at yahoo.com?
#7
“I mean I want to ignore list price but truth be told, I feel like a jackazz asking 200K off an ask”
My feeling is that it is a waste of time to bid on places asking peak prices. Those sellers just do not get it and you are not going to convince them. Maybe 1 out of 50 listings the person is motivated. Wait for those.
209 Chifi – in the LIRR area, right near the 8th Ave subway lines.
#15
“And, given the above, your first inquiry shouldn’t be about price. It should be about the owner’s reason for selling. If those reasons aren’t legit, move on. If there’s something forcing that sale, you’re in business.”
totally agree. this is the information your agent should be giving you. if he/she can’t ferret out the real potential deals from all the crap, he/she is wasting your time
SG Barbara
Just like the banks, the US lifestyle is highly leveraged. That leverage is unwinding and hence the decreasing living standard.
The relative safety net that can be had in a 1 worker family is that if the 1 worker loses their job, then both parents can look for a replacement job, 2X the chance of finding a new job.
I thought I was the only one cruising cl.
Check out this fine listing, John.
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/nva/fuo/1013256329.html
My friends who live are off one income took jobs that pay the most regardless of if they like the job, the job has long hours or lots of travel. My friends whose wifes work took jobs closer to home, had better hours or they liked as they had their wife income coming in. Flash forward ten years all the guys with stay at home wives make double the income of the guy whose wifes work. My cousin always wanted to be a cop, he left wall street to become a cop, nice, but his wife has to work full time while juggling two kids while he plays cops and robbers all day. Kind of selfish of him. Yea it is nice to do what you want but to make your wife’s life a living hell and to live in a shoe box house and send your kids to Community College while you pursue you little dream is not what a real man does.
SG says:
January 30, 2009 at 10:20 am
Cindy: Elizabeth Warren Youtube
Good video. She tries to portray that 2 income family is worse off than 1 income family in 1970’s. Great. But the key question to answer is how does 1 income family cope up in today’s environment.
Who’s down with G-O-L-D?
Yeah, you know me!
8.8 ounces of DOW. I want to see 5 ounces by year end.
What are my chances?
Hard Place:
“I think the issue here is to stem further asset price deflation.”
No sh*t sherlock. Now how do you intend we do that when homes are overvalued so damn much. Perhaps the banks should have actually reviewed their loan applicants ability to pay first???
ChiFi: I do have superbowl on the brain, but surprisingly have not been invited to a single Super Bowl party. Anecdotal evidence perhaps? Enjoyed the Polish Sausage joke immensely.
Jammin Jamil: If claiming that O turns up the thermostat too high makes him a lesser leader, you need some serious help. Make sure you sanitize the nipples on your bottles OK?
Grim: Fannie stole my idea. I’ve been talking about starting a business placing people in foreclosed homes for a minor amount of rent which would cover the carrying costs on the foreclosed homes and would keep the homes from being vandalized. Banks have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Too bad Fannie beat me to the punch.
good news!
close relative made it through the pfizer cuts.
manager got axed, though. and a couple friends.
John, that Ridgewood ad has a 96 Cavalier with 28k miles. She prolly had the oil changed every 2500.
Hard Place:
“I think the issue here is to stem further asset price deflation.”
No sh*t sherlock. Now how do you intend we do that when homes are overvalued so damn much. Perhaps the banks should have actually reviewed their loan applicants ability to pay first???
ChiFi: I do have superbowl on the brain, but surprisingly have not been invited to a single Super Bowl party. Anecdotal evidence perhaps? Enjoyed the Polish Sausage joke immensely.
Jammin Jamil: If claiming that O turns up the thermostat too high makes him a lesser leader, you need some serious help. Make sure you sanitize the nips on your bottles OK?
Grim: Fannie stole my idea. I’ve been talking about starting a business placing people in foreclosed homes for a minor amount of rent which would cover the carrying costs on the foreclosed homes and would keep the homes from being vandalized. Banks have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Too bad Fannie beat me to the punch.
NJGator says:
January 30, 2009 at 10:42 am
209 Chifi – in the LIRR area, right near the 8th Ave subway lines.
thx
Yea it is nice to do what you want but to make your wife’s life a living hell and to live in a shoe box house and send your kids to Community College while you pursue you little dream is not what a real man does.
Amen.
The only thing you have to worry about now is the pool boy and/or the gardner.
“Idiocy is usually described as “endlessly repeating the same process, hoping for a different result”. Lawrence Summers, Timothy Geithner, Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden et al are straining at the leash to get the Bailout Ball rolling once again. The stabilization of the financial sector, as elusive as it has been so far, has become the Holy Grail of Economic salvation. That makes $8.5 Trillion worth of trying and $0 of result. The Knights of the Oval Table are gathered to plan their mission as their beleaguered subjects are trying to batter down the castle gates. It’s no small wonder that Geithner wants to get the money out the door as soon as the end of this week.”
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12053
Can we get an ETF to short daycare???? i see a definite bear market in daycare already developing. at $1000+ /month and rapidly growing unemployment i would guess that this expense is pretty high on the list when things get cut from the budget.
Already seen a few families leave the daycare that my son is in.
“ENTIRE CONTENTS OF ELEGANT RIDGEWOOD HEIGHTS HOME
Including Antique Furniture and One Owner (100 year old lady)”
How much do you think the 100 year old lady goes for?
nonsense, kettle, this is a short term pullback in Day Care. Obama will establish a bailout fund to ensure couples can go gallivant and leave their kids in daycare. It will not only create more jobs in day care but when the couples go out and spend money, it will stimulate the economy. What a great country we have!
Make [222],
1500/7500. Who cares if it’s accomplished by year end? It’s coming in more than 5-1. Wake me up in June, 2011, then again in April 2014.
“Can we get an ETF to short daycare????”
I’ll propose the symbol for this ETF.
DUM
make money says:
January 30, 2009 at 9:53 am
http://www.europac.net/externalframeset.asp?from=home&id=15312
Peter Schiff’s newsletter talks about this weeks attacks on his credibility. Interesting stuff.
albani: Personally, I think it is a really bad sign.
#1 he felt the need to respond
#2 he belittles the source
#3 he makes excuses
I promise you that he is feeling extreme heat. He clients are pi$$ed big time. I have to assume that you are an outlier.
One thing….make sure that you have third party verification of your holdings with him and further that (if possible) you use more than one source to store your wealth…..assuming that you are a seven figure account….
#61
“Skep? Will you still think that the continued pillaging of our sons and daughters futures was the best solution to a collapsing stock market?
I still think we should have endured greater short-term pain so we could have gotten back on the road to recovery sooner.”
I think this is a valid argument. The truth is we will never know what might have happened. I do think TARP I was botched, but this is monday morning QBing because at the time it was a true emergency. Now it more of a slow motion train wreck (and we have more experience with what works/doesn’t) so there is less of an excuse for screwing it up. I still think letting the banking system collapse is not an option unless you have something ready to replace it with. An alternative was not available in Sept, but could be this year.
did someone post an article in the last few days about airline freight falling? i cant find the article again, anyone know where to find it or who posted it????
Stu it doesn’t make him a lesser leader, it makes him a hypocrite. I’d be Gore would not have the heat up that high because he actually believes in what he says. Obama just hopped on the band wagon because that is what democrats want to hear.
Skep: Thanks for responding.
“An alternative was not available in Sept, but could be this year.”
With the same unintended consequences as all of the other plans. Bad bank??? Japan here we come.
Forget the ultra-short daycare ETF. I’m going long the spray paint and recreational drug use ETF.
It was yesterday.
Frank. When the entire economy has collapsed, when the U.S. dollar has been abandoned for barter, when the country breaks down into territories ruled by gangs of tribal thugs, he’ll post “Recession, what recession? You see the way people are fighting over scrap metal? I’ll take two wheel barrows full!”
I strongly doublt that internet will be still operational in your scenario.
Neither will this blog – we all will be formin GRIM’s REPUBLIC somewhere in farmland of PA..
And remember – in times like that the one with bigger guns/better organized forces have all the rights.
http://www.usatoday.com/travel/flights/2009-01-29-airlines-lose-billions-2008_N.htm?csp=34
go to dogpile, type your term, click on the news tab.
jcer,
Whatever. One leader kills 5,000 of our children fighting a war that grossly destabilized the Middle East and the next one turns up the heat.
I’ll take hypocrite over mission accomplished any day of the week.
You can do much better than that I hope.
Shorting daycare when we just elected the head nanny? Who do you think voted for Obama? If anything, he’ll start advocating day care employees should be paid more than engineers and people on Wall Street.
Remember, it’s all about the children!!!!!
Al, PA, too mnny guns and population centers, I’d say far reaches of VT, or Upstate NY armegeddon could come and they wouldn’t notice you go up there it is like the 1800’s. Or we could go to the Northeast Kingdom in VT they have been off grid, off currency, etc for a long time and what kind of threat is a bunch of totally baked people. Although the cold is a problem.
grim (208)-
I vote for this as the reason behind the new policy.
Good luck trying to get your landlord to snake your toilet, too.
ChiFi: I agree with your analyis on Schiff.
“My critics have often referred to me as a stopped clock. I believe that the accusation is best leveled at the accusers. Having been wrong for so long, they are now enjoying their brief moment in the sun. They should enjoy it while it lasts. For now, they are creating fodder for some future “Peter Schiff was Right” piece where those who now criticize my investment performance will look just as foolish as those who once criticized my economic forecasts.”
Come on. You are beginning to sound like Jamil for cripes sake.
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/pf/20090128-unemployment-benefits-a1.asp
Clot:
“Good luck trying to get your landlord to snake your toilet, too.”
Your Fannie Mae or may not be usable?
Stu, the point is neither here nor there I am not nor never have been a republican and pretty much thought GWB was Beelzebub. Actually the outcome of 8 years of bush is better than I expected, to give you a frame of reference. I just don’t believe a word that comes out of Obama’s mouth. This is not a comparison, i had a celebration the day that idiot left office, but just a comment on how far we have fallen that the leader of the nation isn’t held to the highest standards of ethics.
http://www.gambling911.com/sports/bruce-springsteen-halftime-show-betting-cancelled-insider-intel-012909.html
Stu,
its a package strategy, Short daycare, long heroin. Long guns, short urabn revitalization
Thanks pat!
my googlefu must be off today….
BCBob #4: This house is in my neighborhood and was in and out of foreclosure for about 2 years. It is a remodeled cape done up like a stucco McMansion. My guess is that this is a foreclosure auction sale.
#236 – ket – ; I posted this yesterday, I’m not sure if that’s the article you mean though. It’s from CaclulatedRisk.
John: Your are as extreme as your opinion is. You seem to be very convinced that your way to life is superior compared to everyone in the world.
The reality is this today for middle class families with kids.
1. Everyone want to give kids good schooling, so one is pretty much limited in towns they can live in. So, you have to spend huge amount of money to live in top tier town. Though many on this board would counter that argument and say top school district is not important, but when they would post the town they want to live in, majority seems to be looking in those top or near top towns.
2. There is basic expectation on type of house family with kids would want to live in. Typically most family with 2 kids want at least 3 or 4 bedrooms with 2 bath single family home. Forget today, even 5 years ago (talking generally 2002 – 2003 time frame), it would have been not possible for middle income (about 60K or so) family to afford decent SFH in decent town in NNJ or CNJ area.
3. The biggest issue I see with 1 income family is Health Insurance. Today, if that 1 income person looses job, the impact on remaining members of family is very large. No one would want their spouse or kids to go without health insurance.
The point I am trying to make above is, how much ever we try to convince that 1 income family is better, we really don’t have that option available anymore. In my opinion, 2nd part time income (may be telecommuting type) is smarter choice compared to only 1 income family.
You do have exceptions where 2 income families went and bought expensive things, and now can’t live without even 1 income. But at the same time, you have more percentage people with 1 income who also went out and bought big houses and SUVs.
jcer…I’m actually with you. I didn’t think O was the messiah by any stretch of the imagination. I just didn’t want that buffoon who claimed he spoke regularly to Jesus running the show anymore. McCane would have gotten my vote back in 2000, but unfortunately, he morphed into W in 2004.
#118
“The qualifications to obtain a new loan already price out more than half the population on FICO score alone, let alone the 20 to 30% downpayment required.”
I do believe the increased standards have taken a lot of buyers off the table, but you are wrong about the DP requirement. You can still buy a home with 3.5% down through FHA
Deflation is a B1TCH….
Global crisis ‘has destroyed 40pc of world wealth’
The past five quarters have seen 40pc of the world’s wealth destroyed and business leaders expect the global economic crisis can only get worse.
Steve Schwarzman, chairman of private equity giant Blackstone, said an “almost incomprehensible” amount of cash had evaporated since the financial crisis took hold.
“Business will be very different,” he added.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/4374492/WEF-2009-Global-crisis-has-destroyed-40pc-of-world-wealth.html
albani/stu: just came back from bratwurst production……..I had no idea about this article when I posted just a few minutes ago….I guess some really major people a stewed….now THIS source is credible, plus they quote an important FPA guy…….OK guys, look you can think I am a bozo, pathetic, too direct, or slime, but I have pretty good judge of the people and cults of personality that have paraded through this blog….
Wall Street Journal C1
JANUARY 30, 2009 Right Forecast by Schiff, Wrong Plan?
By SCOTT PATTERSON, JOANNA SLATER and CRAIG KARMIN
Peter Schiff predicted a collapse of the U.S. financial system. The bust-up he didn’t foresee was the one that made mincemeat of investors who took his advice in 2008.
Mr. Schiff’s Darien, Conn., broker-dealer firm, Euro Pacific Capital Inc., advised its clients to bet that the dollar would weaken significantly and that foreign stocks would outpace their U.S. peers. Instead, the dollar advanced against most currencies, magnifying the losses from foreign stocks Mr. Schiff steered his investors into.
Investors open accounts at Euro Pacific to take advantage of Mr. Schiff’s investment advice, which generally involves shunning investments in dollars. Individual returns can vary. Some investors may like gold-mining stocks, while others prefer energy-focused stocks.
Most had one thing in common last year: heavy losses. A number of investors said their Euro Pacific portfolios lost 50% or more in 2008, worse than the 38% drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index last year. People familiar with the firm say that hardly any securities recommended by Euro Pacific brokers gained ground in 2008.
Such losses came as something of a surprise. Mr. Schiff’s prescient call for the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the weakening of the financial system helped him gain fame as an economic guru and savvy investor who promised shelter from the financial storm.
In his 2007 book, “Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse,” he recommends that investors pile into gold, commodities and overseas stocks that spit out steady dividends.
When global markets were soaring, many Euro Pacific investors’ accounts experienced strong performance. For several years, investors saw returns in excess of 20% a year as foreign stocks and commodities surged, according to people familiar with the firm.
In 2008, investors nervous about the state of the U.S. economy who were impressed by Mr. Schiff’s track record poured money into Euro Pacific, nearly doubling the number of accounts to 16,000. But many did so at the worst time possible, much like investors who piled into Internet stocks as the dot-com bubble peaked.
Mr. Schiff, 45 years old, says the downturn in his strategy is a short-term setback. He argues that it is only a matter of time before the dollar collapses, pressured by massive government bailouts, triggering outsize returns for his investors.
“I think the dollar is going to get destroyed,” he says. Investors with the staying power to wait out what he sees as a temporary phase of irrational confidence in the dollar will reap huge rewards, he argues.
Mr. Schiff is still riding high on his housing-market call. This week, he spoke at a global competitiveness conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, alongside former heads of state, prime ministers and American gold-medal swimmer Michael Phelps. He is the subject of more than 3,000 YouTube videos, including one called “Peter Schiff Was Right.”
His admirers even created Web sites supporting a possible run for the U.S. Senate in 2010. Mr. Schiff, who was economic adviser to independent presidential candidate Ron Paul in 2008, says he has no plans to run for the Senate but “anything’s possible.”
Critics say Mr. Schiff’s strategy is much riskier and more aggressive than many investors realize. David Yeske, managing director of Yeske Buie, a Vienna, Va., money manager, says Mr. Schiff’s investment strategy was a focused bet on a single outcome, rather than risk management for investors looking to protect assets from an economic collapse. “He’s a speculator; he thinks he can see the future,” says Mr. Yeske, former chairman of the Financial Planning Association. “That’s not really risk control.”
One of Mr. Schiff’s biggest forecasts was that many overseas economies would “decouple” from the U.S., gaining strength even as the American economy struggled. Instead, overseas stock markets plunged as much or more than U.S. stocks in 2008 as the global economy skidded. Prices for commodities also tanked, torpedoing another favorite investment theme of Mr. Schiff’s. After last year’s losses, his firm has about $845 million in assets.
Early last year, Richard De Gennaro, a retired Harvard University librarian, put $100,000, about 15% of his assets, into a Euro Pacific account that included Canadian Oil Sands Trust, which focuses on crude-oil projects in Canada, and the India Capital Growth Fund, which holds investments in companies that do business in India.
Both investments took big hits in 2008, compounded by the fact that the Canadian dollar and the Indian rupee fell 18% and 19%, respectively, against the U.S. dollar. The 83-year-old retiree’s account is now worth about $37,000, a 63% plunge. Mr. Schiff “goes around saying that he was right,” says Mr. De Gennaro. “He was right about one thing and wrong about everything else.”
Among investors who turned to Mr. Schiff’s firm just as his strategy began to falter, Brian Kullberg, a design engineer in Portland, Ore., says he started to worry about the state of the U.S. economy in early 2008. He put $70,000 into a Euro Pacific account, hoping it would benefit as the U.S. economy and the dollar weakened. By late January 2009, his investment had shrunk to about $25,000.
“It’s curious,” says one longtime client of Mr. Schiff’s who works in finance. “His thesis of how things are going to collapse and crumble and fall apart isn’t effectively executed in [my] account.” The account, which is largely invested in gold, mining and infrastructure stocks from Canada to Australia, was down roughly 35% last year, the client estimates. The Australian dollar weakened 19% against the U.S. dollar in 2008.
Mr. Schiff says one year’s poor performance doesn’t prove he was wrong. He has admitted in notes to clients that his investment thesis hasn’t performed as expected, particularly with respect to the U.S. dollar. But he holds fast to his convictions and has been telling investors to scoop up a number of depressed stocks.
Some clients are inclined to agree. “The decoupling he talked about has not happened,” says Barbara Hearst, a clothing entrepreneur who splits her time between Charleston, S.C., and Bridgehampton, N.Y., and has invested with Mr. Schiff since 2000. But “longer term or medium term, I don’t discount what Peter says.”
Afterward to Gator’s evening out (#117):
I went to the hairdresser this morning for my “keeping up appearances” clip (although I am no longer unemployed Hurrah!). Popular salon, usually noisy and bustling when I arrive midmorning. There were NO other customers–just about half the usual number of stylists, sitting in the chairs watching tripe on TV!
Feds allege plot to destroy Fannie Mae data
URBANA, Md. (AP) – The Justice Department says it foiled a plot by a fired Fannie Mae contract worker in Maryland to destroy all the data on the mortgage giant’s 4,000 computer servers nationwide.
The U.S. Attorney’s Office says 35-year-old Rajendrasinh Makwana, of Glen Allen, Va., is scheduled for arraignment Friday in U.S. District Court in Baltimore on one count of computer intrusion.
U.S. Attorney Rod Rosenstein says Makwana was fired Oct. 24.
Rosenstein says that on that day, Makwana programmed a computer with a malicious code that was set to spread throughout the Fannie Mae network and destroy all data this Saturday.
Makwana’s federal public defender did not immediately return a call seeking comment.
Washington-based Fannie Mae is the largest U.S. mortgage finance company.
Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/jan292009.html
this guy’s a good read… reminds me of Clot.
… the bunker/compound/basement talk is justified, perhaps a little early, but justified…
“See: Jagger, Mick.”
Clot that’s like comparing gold to the fed’s balance sheet.”
wait– springstein is better than mick jagger?
skep-tic says:
January 30, 2009 at 11:13 am
#118
“The qualifications to obtain a new loan already price out more than half the population on FICO score alone, let alone the 20 to 30% downpayment required.”
I do believe the increased standards have taken a lot of buyers off the table, but you are wrong about the DP requirement. You can still buy a home with 3.5% down through FHA
I thought FHA actually still gives out loans for people with sub-600 FICO.. Am I not right?
Information I found dates January 20th:
FHA is requiring 3.5% down on all property types-Primary residence only
Max loan amount for FHA $270,050- Only 580 minimum credit score
Condos must be FHA approved, which I can tell you which ones are approved for FHA financing
The only problem in NJ – is max loan amount of 270K…
Here is the real reality today for middle class families with kids.
1. You can’t have a good school disctrict, average is ok.
2. A 3 bed, 1.5 bath 1,500 sq ft home is plenty big for two kids.
3. Big deal with Health insurance, if the hubbie loses job mom can bag groceries at trader joes 20 hours a week for benefits.
4. If Dad earn under 60K you should not buy a house.
Bottom line if you need two incomes to afford you leased BMW and your 3% down McMansion you can’t afford them. Actually, kinda sad and pathetic for a guy to be braging about his BC McMansion when he has to “pimp” his wife out to make the payments.
225 Stu: “Jammin Jamil: If claiming that O turns up the thermostat too high makes him a lesser leader, you need some serious help. Make sure you sanitize the nips on your bottles OK?”
It just shows how everything (every campaign promise) he says has an expiration date, and he is a hypocrite. Besides, I thought the idea was “everybody has to made sacrifices for common good”. This was his first decision in White House. Too bad we don’t have late night comedians or something. I’m sure they would have some nice jokes.
Anyway, I just can’t stand those rich liberals who lecture us that we should use less toilet paper, keep our houses colder and get rid of cars (of course, they can keep their private jets, live in GigaMansions and crank up their thermostat).
261: “Feds allege plot to destroy Fannie Mae data”
They should have hired Sandy Berger. He knows how to destroy government secret documents.
ChiFI,
See my post #191.
My boy is not running or hidding he acknowledges that he missed the deflation and dollar rally.
But to me it’s like saying that he was wrong about RE in 2005 cause the whole year we didn’t see any price drops.
In 2005 and 2006 peter was wrong about RE. In 2008 he was wrong about US Dollar and commodities.
What does 2009 and 10 bring for the USD?
No sh*t sherlock. Now how do you intend we do that when homes are overvalued so damn much. Perhaps the banks should have actually reviewed their loan applicants ability to pay first???
Stu,
I know. But some think bank income streams and bond holder income streams are important. They are not. They are burning the trees to save the forest. Sort of like how they fight forest fires.
I am ignorant of FHA loans. Can better to do people qualify for FHA loans. When I plan to buy my second home (rent out the 2 units of my current owner occupied multi), my strategy is to put down as little as possible so if I am forced to jingle mail it in, I can do it with less to lose.
Are there income limits? I couldn’t find this out on their site, which seems primarily aimed at future defaulters (ha ha).
My kid goes to daycare and while we pay a pretty penny for it, it is as important to us as paying our mortgage. I feel that pulling my child out of it is akin to pulling a child out of school. My kid is too happy to hang with friends, too interested in all the new things being learned, and too stimulated by her environment – I couldn’t provide her with all that if she stayed home. A random playdate here and there isn’t the same as the structure she is currently provided.
That said, I know a few parents who have kids in that daycare who have begun looking for alternatives as they may not be able to afford it in the future.
I like Schiff, and while Mish was right in some of his critical analysis it should be pointed out it is a SHORT TERM ANLYSIS basically comprising six months when nearly every market for anything has tanked. Having said that, Schiff has always appeared to have a massive ego, his response is WAY too defensive, and in the end I think he’ll be right about much more of this than he was wrong.
I think the main thing Mish was right about that Schiff did not see was the fact all that debt being held up by a string over our heads was nearly all denominated in dollars and as a consequence created a “demand” for dollars when the creditors came knocking for payment. As more and more of it gets paid off/written off etc the “demand” is going to vanish. Then you’ll really see who is naked to borrow Buffet’s phrase.
I think there’s still plenty of time to get into the shiny stuff/commodity plays but when that train leaves the station you are going to want to be on it.
I though FHA had sliding scale loan limits and in NJ it was 417K?
223
Yikes: not to poop on your relative’s party, but I don’t think the Pfizer layoffs have started in full-force yet.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atvi7yeC6.iU&refer=home
Obama Says Economic ‘Disaster’ Requires Focus on Middle Class
Hurray for more fudged #’s. From the government report the real downturn was closer to 5.1%. the “unwanted buildup of goods” accounts for 1.32% per the report. this is not a positive factor. the real decrease was 3.8+1.32 = 5.12%
GDP contracts 3.8% as inventories limit downturn, Fourth quarter marks worst performance for U.S. economy in nearly 29 years
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy contracted at a 3.8% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, Commerce Department data showed Friday — a decline that would have been worse except that the government counts an unwanted buildup of goods on store shelves as growth.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Q4-GDP-falls-38-inventories/story.aspx?guid={913CEBDA-AE34-48A8-84CC-80ECCBA1B6E6}
242 stu: “One leader kills 5,000 of our children fighting a war that grossly destabilized the Middle East and the next one turns up the heat.”
Care to elaborate how we grossly destabilized ME? The status quo in ME was ok ?
This is just like O in his Al-Arabiya interview saying how great things were few decades ago between the west and ME. (Apparently, those incidents in Tehran, Beirut and Lockerbie, fatwas against Salman, oil embargo, muslims burning pictures of Jimmy Carter etc were things O think were evidence of great times and mutual respect).
At least we achieved something in Iraq. They are not a threat anymore and they have elected leadership. This will have positive effect on democratization in the ME.
Afghanistan is going to be the real quackmire. Europe will not send a single troops there (despite all promises from O how he will change things with Europe) and we have zero chance of achieving anything else than status quo in big cities and Taleban waiting us to go home. O has announced that we will suspend development activities and focus only on militaty actions (so more “air-raiding villages and killing civilians expected”).
“To think we buy gowns lined with ermine
“For dolts that can’t or won’t determine
“What’s best to rid us of our vermin!
“You hope, because you’re old and obese,
“To find in the furry civic robe ease?
“Rouse up, sirs! Give your brains a racking
“To find the remedy we’re lacking,
“Or, sure as fate, we’ll send you packing!”
At this the Mayor and Corporation
Quaked with a mighty consternation.
If you invested with Schiff you could be soing worse:
Fortress Blocks Redemptions as Shareholders Lose 96% Since IPO
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a7rJVe6G62rA&refer=home
John (221) –
“My cousin always wanted to be a cop, he left wall street to become a cop, nice, but his wife has to work full time while juggling two kids while he plays cops and robbers all day”
I thought Cops and Teachers made like 200K in your neighborhood, no?
“That said, I know a few parents who have kids in that daycare who have begun looking for alternatives as they may not be able to afford it in the future.”
I recently posted on our town watercooler that I put my son in Bloomfield day care since Montclair’s pre-K is significantly cheaper, has longer hours and doesn’t close everytime a snow flurry falls.
I received an email response from another watercooler member who is an unemoployed baker who said her daughters would watch my child for a lot less and would provide us with baked goods to boot.
“hi, i read your post, and i was thinking about how you said you had to put your child in a bloomfield day care…..if you are interested, both of my daughters, jill 25 and tara 21, who have both worked as nannies in the past are also unemployed as we closed our bake shop in montclair MEEMAS COUNTRY DESSERTS….also due to the economy among other problems…..they are looking for any type employment, and would watch your son full time at your home for most likely less than you are paying now….individual, one on one….plus fresh baked cookies to come home to….lol……please forgive this email if you arent interested…its just been tough for all of us, and if you know anyone else that might be interested feel free to give my email for more info…..oh and we are still doing dessert deliveries….if you could pass the word on……thank you so much”
And for more fun, here is my post the watercooler…
“I sympathize for the members of our town council. They say we must make tough
choices, but for every tough choice that is suggested there is a contingent of
residents who will claim that making such choices will reduce the revenue that
Montclair receives. Or, my kid deserves a better school. Or, funding the arts
results in a 7 to 1 return on investment. Or, some residents use the second
library.
Tough choices require real sacrifice. None of which people here seem willing to
make. I’m beginning to think it is due to the general abundance of wealth of
our residents who are, quite simply, able to afford all of these wonderful
services.
I am currently the owner of a multi-family home here in Montclair. Our one
child (can’t afford more) attends all-day daycare in Bloomfield. We would have
frequented a local establishment, but they are too expensive and the hours are
shorter. We are now faced with the choice of putting our son in Montclair Pre-K
or having him continue to attend pre-K at his daycare center. It is $200 more
per month for him to attend the Montclair Pre-K than in his current school. The
decision is obviously a no-brainer for us.
We are rapidly being priced out of wonderful Montclair. I attended college here
and fell in love with the place and did everything in my power to save enough
money for a sizeable downpayment and to be able to afford our modest multi
family home here. If given the option of staying in Montclair versus paying for
quiet zones, bike lanes, and new logo campaigns, I would opt for a noisier town,
with less bike lanes and the old logo. Unfortunately, I am obviously in the
minority here.
My company recently cut my salary by 10% and removed our 401K match as well as
forced us to take 80 hours of vacation. As much as we didn’t like it, it was
either that or more drastic layoffs (we already cut 25% of our workforce). This
is ‘real’ sacrifice. I’m hoping that I can afford to stay in this town through
the completion of the new school. But once the operating budget is added to our
annual tax burden (not bonded over thirty years like our capital spending and
new school construction), I’m fairly certain that I will have to say goodbye to
the town I love. And if my family can’t afford it, I’m fairly certain that many
of my 4th ward neighbors will be emigrating as well. Goodbye diversity! Enjoy
the flowers though.”
Jamil:
Back on ignore. Not sure why I momentarily took you off. The biggest mistake I made here recently is initiating more of your verbal diarrhea. I will not make that mistake again and apologize to everyone else here.
#238
““An alternative was not available in Sept, but could be this year.”
With the same unintended consequences as all of the other plans. Bad bank??? Japan here we come.”
Moral hazard is a side effect. Not really unanticipated, but inevitable. Inefficiency seems inevitable too so long as the gov’t is going to take a stronger role in banking.
Stu [282],
Thanks. Maybe Jamil’s slop can be moved to another page?
Japan?
“TURNING JAPANESE – THE AUDACITY OF REALITY”
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/quinn/2009/0128.html
stu,
we as a nation, are still deep in the denial phase. if we acknowledge what is right infront of our faces then we have to accept that the plasma tv’s and BMW’s dont define you and do not create happiness. That is going to be a huge change for the majority of people and a change that will not happen until they are dragged kicking and screaming away from their plasma’s and Mcmansions.
#204 One income families – you buy used cars and keep them ten years, you cook all your food at home and you make casseroles out of leftovers, you don’t go to the mall, you don’t take expensive vacations, you buy your kids’ clothes at WalMart and you don’t get HBO. “Date night” is popcorn and a movie with the kids asleep upstairs. You use the public library for story time and other programs for kids as well as for borrowing books and movies. Meanwhile, all the little bits of money you’re saving are adding up. It can be done and it’s actually quite satisfying.
[278]
That’s one long-azzed poem. Tried reading to my daughter and she was asleep before I got that far.
PGC #827
Anytime! We can meet a Legends or at any watering hole in Ridgewood.
Post #205
Wow! I’m speechless.
Rich
Got my TARP bonus. Made a small donation to Grim. Keep up the good work.
BC
is japan even an option for us at this point? The US would be hard pressed to rapidly build up a manufacturing base. And who would we sell to?
As you pointed out before, what happens when the us enacts protectionist policies? Other nations will likely reciprocate.
Skep:
We are going to have to agree to disagree on this one. Only the history books will be able to determine who was right.
And being right has a lot to do with what time frame you are in. For a long time Socrates was right as well and leeches could heal all ailments.
Jamil/Jamilcer:
Here’s your precious article.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/29/us/politics/29whitehouse.html?_r=2
The article is a juxtaposition (go ahead, we’ll wait while you look it up…) of Bush’s demands of jacket & tie versus Obama’s sans-jacket look.
But the conservative blogs get up in arms about the “heat” comment:
“He’s from Hawaii, O.K.?” said Mr. Obama’s senior adviser, David Axelrod, who occupies the small but strategically located office next door to his boss. “He likes it warm. You could grow orchids in there.”
But leave it to the Times to bring a little clarity to what is meant by “warm”…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article5614707.ece
Mr Obama has loosened both. Unlike his predecessor, who kept the Oval Office a disconcertingly bracing 18C (65F) all year round, Mr Obama has cranked up the heating, and often works jacketless. “He’s from Hawaii, OK?”, his senior adviser, David Axelrod, told The New York Times. “He likes it warm. You could grow orchids in there.”
Now, let me point out a few things:
Mr Axelrod “forgets” Obama is newly from Chicago. Mr Axelrod also give an opinion, not a fact. Unless Mr Axlerod had stated that Mr Obama keeps the temp at “XX”, then I think you have a classic case of “my spouse keeps the heat cranked up to 68*, I like it cooler at 62*…”
Additionally, warmer winter office temps equal warmer summer office temps. 6-1, 1/2 dozen…take your pick. Bush kept his office at 65* year ’round. That’s a hell of a lot of A/C.
Lastly, DON’T YOU HAVE ANYTHING IMPORTANT TO ADD?
Can you go back to the country you came from? We changed our minds. When we said to you:
“Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”
We were kidding.
Thxkaybiebies.
“Got my TARP bonus. Made a small donation to Grim. Keep up the good work.”
I lost 10% of my pay. Hoping Grim will paypal me a partial refund ;)
grim, stuck in mod.
He is a NYC cop.
Victorian says:
January 30, 2009 at 11:48 am
John (221) –
“My cousin always wanted to be a cop, he left wall street to become a cop, nice, but his wife has to work full time while juggling two kids while he plays cops and robbers all day”
I thought Cops and Teachers made like 200K in your neighborhood, no?
Day care, pre-school and kindergarten are for the parents sanity and don’t help the kids at all. Some European countries with extremely high scoring high schools start the kids in first grade and lets them enjoy their childhood. In fact one daughter said to me recently she is so happy she does not have to be trapped in the prision of after school programs where working mommies jail their children while they adjust the fonts on their powerpoint presentations. Hope your kids pick you a nice nursing home.
Goldman, in a research note discussed at CNBC, says the total tab for the US bank rescue operation could run as high as $4 trillion:
The cost of restoring confidence in U.S. financial firms may reach $4 trillion if President Barack Obama moves ahead with a “bad bank” that buys up souring assets.
The figure far exceeds even the most pessimistic estimates of how great the loan losses might be because there is so much uncertainty about default rates, which means the government may need to take on a bigger chunk of bank debt to ease concerns.
Goldman Sachs economists said ideally the public sector would step in to remove the hardest-to-value assets, which would alleviate nagging worries about future losses and hopefully help get lending going again.
“Unfortunately, with an unprecedented meltdown in mortgage credit and a deep recession in the broader economy, there is a great deal of uncertainty about the value of almost every asset,”…
Goldman Sachs estimated that it would take on the order of $4 trillion to buy troubled mortgage and consumer debt. That number could shrink if the program were limited to only certain loans or banks, but it could also grow if other asset classes such as commercial real estate loans were included.
New York Sen. Charles Schumer has said that a number of experts thought that up to $4 trillion may be needed to buy the bad assets, an estimate that a Senate aide said was based on informal conversations with people in the industry.
from naked capitalism.
Hope your kids pick you a nice nursing home.
I nominate this for Post of the Day!
#290 – You work at Citi eh?
The entitled ones reporting bonuses down 75% at Citi.
[244] jcer,
NE Pa is not an ideal choice, but a good choice because you can exercise ability to arm oneself there. While it is true that the state has too many population centers, this is a threat only when it comes to potential confiscatory legislation, which won’t work on something like a compound unless the state imposes direct real property ad valorem taxes. This was the primary reason for dinging NEPA. NY and VT are too anti-gun, and NY (like PA) can be governed by its downstate population centers, which surely do not share your interests.
The threat from actual out-migration from population centers is slim, and evidence shows that, except for abberations like Katrina (which involved forcible relocation, the worst of the lot stay put while those with means leave. So NEPA is a reasonably good choice provided the poor don’t try to hold you up through the ballot box.
My family has a compound in Maine, which is ideal for them for a number of reasons—a few hours drive from Boston; no mass transit access; no large population centers; fairly homogeneous population; favorable gun laws; and close to seasonal recreation. The only negative is the fact that Maine is a blue state and a fairly high-tax state at that, but the only time that is of concern for a compound is with respect to property taxes.
If the anti-tax crowd was smart (and they are getting around to this), they would try initiatives to amend constitutions to prevent states from passing tax laws in areas where they are not yet taxing, such as passing statewide property taxes on real estate. This is the only tax an off-grid person or entity cannot avoid, and there would not be a lot of resistance to an amendment to block a tax that doesn’t exist, so this is where anti-tax forces should focus.
Democrats? Republicans? Doesn’t matter much to me. They are both the same. Big spenders who hire crackpot economists as their advisers.
“Day care, pre-school and kindergarten are for the parents sanity and don’t help the kids at all.”
John, among your gems you say a lot of stupid things, but this one is by far the dumbest.
Did you know that apples, not caffeine, are more efficient at waking you up in the morning. Unlike your tidbit, this one is actually true.
grim, 300 in mod, can’t figure out why
Ben, Democrats, republicans, call them whatever you like. I have a few words to describe them both, I prefer Liars, Cheats, or perhaps Traitors. Pick your poison the Demosucks and the Republicons are ruining our country.
“Pick your poison the Demosucks and the Republicons are ruining our country.”
Bingo. Same clowns, different outer suits. Merely, puppets on a string.
the coverup of the real problems is worse than the crimes. mortgage bond fraud, mortgage bonds written backed by no actual mortgage paper etc etc… when viewed from this angle, it becomes much clearer to see why the government/Fed/Treasury are choosing the paths they do when trying to keep the terminally ill patient alive for one last dance.
the entire house of cards is inevitably going to come crashing down… our only hope is debt forgiveness from China and Japan etc
what a penultimate mess folks…
What now?
http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2009/01/congress_demand_mets_drop_nami.html
OK, I had enough fun making fun of working Moms, lets get back to more important things like Real Estate, Baby Carriages and Valentine’s Day Gifts.
This year I am thinking for Valentine’s Day I will let the little lady make for dinner whatever she wants rather than what I want.
Rich in NNJ thanks for the posts on the comp-killers. Always loved them and will continue to love them (until I buy a house).
Grim excellent job on the pics. Puts a face on the price.
“What now?”
Six months ago I said Abu Dhabi Field. Now, Tarp Field.
Stu (281)-
That message will fall upon deaf ears. Also, many before you- and many to come- won’t stop the car and unpack until they have exited NJ…never to return.
“I am ignorant of FHA loans. Can better to do people qualify for FHA loans. When I plan to buy my second home (rent out the 2 units of my current owner occupied multi), my strategy is to put down as little as possible so if I am forced to jingle mail it in, I can do it with less to lose.
Are there income limits? I couldn’t find this out on their site, which seems primarily aimed at future defaulters (ha ha).”
Stu– I have the same philosophy (less money down, less risk) and am going to do FHA. There is no income limitation. I have found that many realtors in this area of the country are not familiar with it because up until recently it was unnecessary for anyone but poor credit risk types. So you may meet some skepticism when you say this is how you plan to finance.
People who are a little more familiar with it may have heard that it is harder to close FHA deals. This is because the appraisal process is more stringent in some cases. So that is another hurdle in some sellers/agents mind. But since an increasing share of buyers are going this route, they are going to have to get comfortable with it. Also, non FHA appraisals are not getting any easier
Jamil has pulled off quite the perfecta. Both the libs and conservatives alike here find his pronouncements akin to a cheese grater across the forehead.
Online sportsbook Bodog is betting on what Bruce Springsteen will play as the first song in his halftime show. “Born in the USA” is a 21-20 favorite (bet $20 to make $21 profit), followed by “Born to Run” at 9-4 and “Glory Days” at 11-4. Looking through Springsteen’s set lists for his 2008 tour you can see the singer has a fairly standard routine. Generally speaking, the halftime show is long enough to fit in three or four songs so I would expect “Born to Run” and “Born in the USA” to be toward the end, possibly in a medley.
Given that last year’s set list has “Radio Nowhere” consistently early in his set, I would say there is a decent chance Springsteen will kick off his performance with this song. At 9-1 it looks a good value wager.
Yes if we could vote someone off it would be either Jamil or Frank, man who claims the economy is fine, housing in hoboken never drops and hedgefunds have a huge demand for migrant quants from honduras.
anyone have a good link to the gold chart?
just put down some cigarette $ on the steelers -7.
NJ Pension Plan Field has a nice ring to it.
#298. Let me keep the company name out of this but let’s say the bonus was lower than what I was told it would be earlier in the year.
This week has been terrible. Every since “That One” took over, things have accelerated to the downside. I long for the days of yore when buyers climbed all over themselves slobbering and bidding for my real estate. I long to place my real estate on the market and have five bids in an hour. I long for the days when I could flip a house in 6 months and earn six figures.
Those were the good days and what happened to them? Real Estate terrorists is what happened to them. These people were dead set against anyone making money. One day soon this nation will come to realize who caused this mess and they’ll be picked up and put in a gulag somewhere.
danzud, I’m frankly surprised you got a bonus, we heard at the end of last year no raise, lower bonus. My assumption is they haven’t mentioned it recently and pay time is normally around now, we aren’t getting it here. We didn’t get TARP money but got it from a different gov’t so no bonus here.
re101, you weren’t making money merely acquiring it from an inflated money supply. The quicker you understand this the happier you’ll be, this event was inevitable.
#263
“I though FHA had sliding scale loan limits and in NJ it was 417K?”
FHA goes to $625k in some places
I didn’t get a raise for the first time in my career. As for the bonus, the group I work in made a profit.
#319,
UBS? If so I heard it has been brutal there. Friends at Citi were down on average 50% YOY on bonus. Not bad considering if you ask me.
As far as refi’s go, a few people in my town recently had their refi’s put in jeopardy due to lower than expected appraisal. They put 20+% down but the down market has increased their LTV and thus made it much more difficult to get the best rates. They will all likely have to come to closing with wads of cash to close at the original lock. I got lucky and somehow got an appraisal 8% above my 2006 price but I pulled a John and chatted the appraiser up about his kids. I think it helped.
Jcer 307
“the problem is choice”
As long as you give the average joe at least the illusion of choice and ensure he has a full belly, then he may be led by the nose.
Though, he starts to get dangerous once he gets hungry.
John [317].
Gotta get some of that action.
“and hedgefunds have a huge demand for migrant quants from honduras.”
Just lost my lunch.
“anyone have a good link to the gold chart?’
Yikes,
Daily, weekly, monthly??
#287
“One income families – you buy used cars and keep them ten years, you cook all your food at home and you make casseroles out of leftovers, you don’t go to the mall, you don’t take expensive vacations, you buy your kids’ clothes at WalMart and you don’t get HBO. “Date night” is popcorn and a movie with the kids asleep upstairs. You use the public library for story time and other programs for kids as well as for borrowing books and movies. Meanwhile, all the little bits of money you’re saving are adding up. It can be done and it’s actually quite satisfying.”
amen
The Quinn article that BC Bob posted should be mandatory reading.
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/quinn/2009/0128.html
No one else out there, (except perhaps for Putin at his keynote) has clearly explained why every single thing our government is doing is from opposite world. We are talking 10 trillion dollars worth of debt from a population of 300 million. As much as I appreciate this blog as a haven to obtain a reality check, Quinn continues to push me towards that hammock in Costa Rica. It does not take an economics degree to realize that creating a new credit bubble is not the way out of a credit freeze. I think everyone in DC is basing their decisions on the old hangover cure. Best way to cure a hangover is to begin drinking again.
Man I sympathize for my soon to be excompatriots. Enjoy the Joey reruns while they last!
#311
“OK, I had enough fun making fun of working Moms, lets get back to more important things like Real Estate, Baby Carriages and Valentine’s Day Gifts.”
Playas don’t celebrate Valentine’s Day.
you said it skeptic, except it is pure evil to shop at walmart. also it is a myth one income families are broke. most rich towns the wives are at the country club not out working.
When I was single I would love it when it was a Monday, could take out a girl Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday and keep all four hos happy. When it is a Saturday night like this year you gotta pick your favorite.
My friends used to hook up after labor day and always break up week before thanksgiving and skip that family party, christmas gifts, new years day and valentines day and get back together on Feb 15th before ditching them again Memorial Day. If you were really good you could do it 3-4 times with same girl.
This is the ONLY thing you’ve ever posted that I agree with. My belly is empty right now and the hunger pangs have got me so damn mad, I can’t see straight.
There are a few of us investors who’ve been talking about this and we need government help. We’re going to march on Washington and go on a hunger strike right in front of the damn white house to dramatize our plight. We want every damn thing back that we used to have and more–ample credit and buyers willing to bid against each other.
We are in earnest and we won’t stop until we get what we want. You’ve been warned.
kettle1 says:
January 30, 2009 at 1:11 pm
Jcer 307
“the problem is choice”
As long as you give the average joe at least the illusion of choice and ensure he has a full belly, then he may be led by the nose.
Though, he starts to get dangerous once he gets hungry
Yikes,
This is BY FAR the best free java charting application available:
http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-rates-foreign-exchange/real-time-quotes/QuoteList.aspx
Double click on the gold spot to open a new window that you can manipulate real time and mark up as well..
BC Bob says:
January 30, 2009 at 12:52 pm
“What now?”Six months ago I said Abu Dhabi Field. Now, Tarp Field.
Bost: When it rains do you get to use TARP FIELD’S field tarp?
john=delusions of grandeur=a legend in his own mind
“”There is no risk that the euro will break apart,” said Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank’s president, speaking at the World Economic Forum. ”
– Should we file this together with – “we are well capitalized” ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/4394914/Trichet-is-bounced-into-defence-of-the-euro.html
REloser50.5…
“We’re going to march on Washington and go on a hunger strike right in front of the damn white house to dramatize our plight.”
The single man march? This should garner a lot of media coverage.
Zieba – re Citi – anectdotally from my evening out last night, that sounds about right. My dinner companion last night was a former CITI employee. She took a call when we were on the train on the way home from a former coworker. He was in tears and all upset and was about to start sending out his resume. Said he couldn’t support his 4 kids without his full bonus.
Not for nothing, but I never cured a hangover by drinking more. It just made it worse.
Daycare is not for the sanity of parents, John. My kid is 2 and already knows how to give a presentation (thanks to Show & Tell, but it’s true!).
My best friend is a university prof who splits child care with her husband, and at the same age her kid didn’t know the difference between “hi” and “bye”, is afraid of other kids, cries when away from parents and doesn’t know how to play with others. (I point this out because he is the child of brilliant PhDs so genetic intelligence is not the issue.)
You can successfully raise children in both settings, John (daycare and home), and you can also set a child back by keeping them at home. My kid voluntarily wants to play with her friends, and that is good enough for me.
While I agree with John on a surprising number of issues, I don’t need the likes of a chauvinist giving me a hard time about daycare or working.
reinvestor101 says:
January 30, 2009 at 12:59 pm
This week has been terrible.
Every since “That One” took over, things have accelerated to the downside.
I long for the days of yore when buyers climbed all over themselves slobbering and bidding for my real estate.
I long to place my real estate on the market and have five bids in an hour.
I long for the days when I could flip a house in 6 months and earn six figures.
Those were the good days and what happened to them?
Real Estate terrorists is what happened to them.
These people were dead set against anyone making money.
One day soon this nation will come to realize who caused this mess and they’ll be picked up and put in a gulag somewhere.
RE: You MUST going to Times Square and stand on the corner with a bullhorn…..this stuff is good theater. I’m not joking. You would put those “yahoo-end of days guys” and the “white man is holding us down” people out of business.
John: You need brain surgery.
1. You can’t have a good school disctrict, average is ok.
Even that is unaffordable for median income earner. Have you looked at median home prices?
3. Big deal with Health insurance, if the hubbie loses job mom can bag groceries at trader joes 20 hours a week for benefits.
I don’t see why job that pays 8 to 10 bucks an hour (that too only 20 hours) will pay hundreds of dollars per month for Health Insurance of family of four. I think the last one doing that was StarBucks which is laying off. I don’t see Shoprite or A&P doing that soon.
4. If Dad earn under 60K you should not buy a house.
Go look up the Median Income of any town in NJ. Majority is within 60K to 80K. That said, according to you 50% population (that’s how median income is calculated) should not live in their own houses.
You have to understand that when we talk Median, it is not your personal situation. It is larger group of people.
#340 Chi fi
“Bost: When it rains do you get to use TARP FIELD’S field tarp?”
Nice.
In the near future, we may see the fed guaranteeing mortgages at 4.00-4.50%. This will give the banks the impetus to lend, with the fed as a backstop. In addition to this, watch for the suspension, maybe permanent, of mark to market.
gut feeling? reading something? talking to people?
Stu [333],
That was one of the best articles that I have read regarding this fiasco.
John,
Weren’t you a big fan of the Palm and said that restaurants that coupon are destined to go under if they can’t sell food without a discount…
http://www.fishbowl.com/clt/palm/pc/200901/3/crt/crt_mm.html
PGC says:
January 30, 2009 at 8:33 am
Is it time to load the last bu11et in the Fed gun and shoot the rates the other way to 8%.
win-win for us – the $ we have in savings might start earning 4-5% again, and we already locked in the mortgage, so yeah, im all for this.
bc bob’s thoughts? ugh. really, hope that doesn’t happen.
BC Bob,
It’s just a shame that Quinn doesn’t write for a major newspaper or magazine. The sheep really could use some enlightening for a change. Instead, all we hear is nothing but optimism.
“Bost: When it rains do you get to use TARP FIELD’S field tarp?”
Chi,
Here’s the ground crew. Someone had posted this recently.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGfQk9XXm24
Hobo: different perspective from me….
Hobocondo says:
January 30, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Daycare is not for the sanity of parents, John. My kid is 2 and already knows how to give a presentation (thanks to Show & Tell, but it’s true!).
SO?
MY SON IS TWO YEARS OLD. I AM PROUD THAT HE FIGURED OUT HE LIKES TO TOUCH HIS PEE-PEE.
My best friend is a university prof who splits child care with her husband, and at the same age her kid didn’t know the difference between “hi” and “bye”, is afraid of other kids, cries when away from parents and doesn’t know how to play with others. (I point this out because he is the child of brilliant PhDs so genetic intelligence is not the issue.)
IS IT POSSIBLE THAT SUCH A CHILD IS WELL SUITED TO BEING WITH THEIR PARENTS? I WOULD ACTUALLY ARGUE THAT MORE INTELLIGENT CHILDREN ARE OUT OF THEIR ELEMENT WITH OTHER KIDS. MOST KIDS WHO ARE SONS AND DAUGHTERS OF MORONS MAKE IT THEIR BUSINESS TO PHYSICALLY IMPOSE THEIR DESIRES ON OTHERS. AT TWO YEARS OLD, EMOTIONAL WELL BEING TRUMPS ALL OTHER FACTORS. YOU CAN TEACH A DOG TO FETCH. THAT DOESN’T MEAN THE DOG WILL BE SMARTER IN THE LONG RUN OR BE A HAPPY DOG.
You can successfully raise children in both settings, John (daycare and home), and you can also set a child back by keeping them at home. My kid voluntarily wants to play with her friends, and that is good enough for me.
AGREED.
how high are the odds of this passing right now?
**********
WASHINGTON (CNN) — One day after President Barack Obama ripped Wall Street executives for their “shameful” decision to hand out $18 billion in bonuses in 2008, Congress may finally have had enough.
An angry U.S. senator introduced legislation Friday to cap compensation for employees of any company that accepts federal bailout money. Under the terms of a bill introduced by Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Missouri, no employee would be allowed to make more than the president of the United States.
Obama’s current annual salary is $400,000.
Skep, not a chance this is passing.
i’d love to get bullet-proof windows for my car. is this sort of thing expensive?
may ponder some kevlar while i’m at it.
RE: 357
Niccce………………….none.
what do real men do, John?
BC Bob says:
January 30, 2009 at 1:57 pm
“Bost: When it rains do you get to use TARP FIELD’S field tarp?”
Chi,
Here’s the ground crew. Someone had posted this recently.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGfQk9XXm24
This is good.
It does not take an economics degree to realize that creating a new credit bubble is not the way out of a credit freeze. I think everyone in DC is basing their decisions on the old hangover cure. Best way to cure a hangover is to begin drinking again.
Stu – good analogy.
“what do real men do”
according to my TV, they use Flomax
Yikes,
here you go
http://www.securityprousa.com/baglfa.html
Yikes…
http://www.bulletproofme.com/ProMAX_Vests.shtml#Rifle
Sybarite says:
January 30, 2009 at 11:37 am
223
Yikes: not to poop on your relative’s party, but I don’t think the Pfizer layoffs have started in full-force yet.
yesterday was managers, today was field reps. he got the call today about who his new manager will be, all that jazz.
I stayed at home with my children. They are shy of strangers but children are born with a particular disposition. Many people in my family are shy so maybe it is genetic. Both of my children spoke early and they might of also spoken early had they been in child care. Who knows?
I don’t understand why people are so judgmental of the way other people raise their children. Why is the most important measure for successful child rearing how advanced they are? Why can’t they be happy children?
I sent both my children to pre-school for two 1/2 hours a day when they were four. They seemed to like it but I don’t think it would have been the end of the world if I hadn’t. If I had to do it over again, I would have kept them home with me.
RE: “One leader kills 5,000 of our children fighting a war that grossly destabilized the Middle East”
Perhaps you haven’t heard, but our country has a VOLUNTEER army comprised entirely of ADULTS.
When the Mideast was “stable” they were flying hijacked airliners into office buildings holding 50,000 Americans sitting at their desks.
The Iraq war was approved by both the House and Senate, including “yes” votes from Harry Reid, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Joe Biden, and countless others. To justify their vote, they all cited Saddam’s DECADES of use (e.g., Halabja) and ongoing intent to develop WMD.
People having different viewpoints is a good thing, but please dispense with the dishonesty and selective memory.
IF smoot comes back do I get to have more than one wife?
kapoom,
are you a masochist or something?????
Qwerty says:
January 30, 2009 at 2:15 pm
The Iraq war was approved by both the House and Senate, including “yes” votes from Harry Reid, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Joe Biden, and countless others. To justify their vote, they all cited Saddam’s DECADES of use (e.g., Halabja) and ongoing intent to develop WMD.
Q-man: I just want to point out that really any congressperson had no choice in the days leading up to the Iraq war. There was evidence presented, which was later exposed to be manipulated and trumped-up. There was also a needlessly aggressive timeline arbitrarily imposed on decisionmakers. There are no shades of gray in Congress. It is YES or NO. You can’t say, I want to vote YES, but I would feel more comfortable voting NO, since we should wait several months to have better information and a clearer idea of how we can include our allies. You vote on what is in front of you. If you vote NO, you are blackballed as unAmerican and possibly tarred politically. Obama was seriously lucky that his vote didn’t permanently banish him to the legislature.
http://courage.3cdn.net/b584f566c141f5ddb1_7im6ib6s9.pdf
Arnold Bucks. I love it.
I’ll be Back to pay you real money!!!
pardon the mildly offensive lyrics, but i heard this song on my ipod at the gym and it sort of applies to the end of days we’re currently living in.
it’s by Freeway (featurin Jay-Z), and i heard the lyrics and they totally apply to this winter (and next one, too):
Cuz when the teeth stop showin’ and the stomach start growlin’
Then the heat start flowin’
If you from the hood I know you feel me ([Jay-Z:] Keep goin’…)
If a sneak start leanin’ and the heat stop workin’
Then my heat start workin’ I’m-a rob me a person
Catch a n***a sleepin’ while he out in the open…and I’m-a get him ([Jay-Z:] Keep flowin’…)
video, if you care
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTmt93cVsAU
if i ever boxed, this would be one of the three songs i would feature on my way to the ring
“please dispense with the dishonesty and selective memory.”
Qwerty, your argument is complete and utter nonsense. Without W’s genesis of the need for retribution for his daddies unfinished business (after all, he was always the black sheep of the family), there would have never been a single U.S. death related to Iraq.
Volunteer army? Sure, either you die in the crossfire of the ghetto, become incarcerated by age 21, or serve in the military. I suppose you are right. They did have other options.
No one from Iraq flew airplanes into the WTC and Pentagon. Those people were from his daddies best friend’s country…Saudi Arabia.
Now who is being deceptive. Back on ignore for you as well you Drudge repeating ignoramus who can’t think of a single idea for himself.
RE: “Why is the most important measure for successful child rearing how advanced they are? Why can’t they be happy children?”
Agreed. Raise them to be happy, patient, and smart, and the rest will come naturally.
Better to teach them how to think and problem solve, than to focus on memorization of ABCs, etc.
Most people don’t have critical thinking skills, but can instead memorize things for tests.
“There was evidence presented, which was later exposed to be manipulated and trumped-up. There was also a needlessly aggressive timeline arbitrarily imposed on decisionmakers.”
Kinda sounds like the big crap sandwich, I mean “stimulus” package.
John says:
January 30, 2009 at 1:30 pm
My friends used to hook up after labor day and always break up week before thanksgiving and skip that family party, christmas gifts, new years day and valentines day and get back together on Feb 15th before ditching them again Memorial Day. If you were really good you could do it 3-4 times with same girl.
THIS drivel from a man who f.ucks “Vidalia”.
[smacks forehead, rolls eyes]
sl
“Most people don’t have critical thinking skills, but can instead memorize things for tests.”
Yes, so true…exemplified by your need to repeat everything you read on the right-wing propaganda sites.
Re 356 CHIFI: Interesting perspective about more intelligent kids being out of their element with other kids. Though in that case I would argue that those kinds of kids would benefit even more from socialization.
Agree on your kids-of-morons theory.
ChiFi, you skipped a key portion of my post:
“they all cited Saddam’s DECADES of use (e.g., Halabja) and ongoing intent to develop WMD.”
As for Obama, he didn’t vote on the Iraq war (which illustrates his inexperience), as he was just a local state senator at the time.
However, upon becoming a US Senator in 2004, Obama did vote “yes” in support of the “Patriot Act” and FISA (“domestic spying” in NY Times parlance).
SL:
That’s because the prime onion growing season is from March to October. Can’t pull them Vidalia’s from frozen ground now can ya?
Kettle1 – You could argue that any man once married is a masochist whether they know it or not.
Stu @ 2:33, when presented with concrete facts all you can do is throw insults.
Childish.
You should change your name to “Straw Man” — it’s no wonder you were hit with a 10% pay cut.
New thread, move it up.