From the Record:
Home prices down nearly 12 percent
Home prices in the New York metropolitan area, including North Jersey, were at a median of $458,600 in the fourth quarter of 2008, down 11.7 percent from a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said today.
The volume of sales in the Garden State has also dropped dramatically. Only 112,600 single-families, condos and co-ops were sold statewide in 2008, down 18 percent from 137,400 in 2007 and down 39 percent from the 184,400 units sold at the peak of the recent housing boom in 2005.
Nationally, existing home prices were down about 12.4 percent, to a median of $180,100, the NAR said.
The declining prices are making homes more affordable for buyers, although some buyers are apparently holding back because they think prices may fall further or because they’re worried about their job security in a deepening recession.
Will historians call this the “Great deleverage”?
Don’t worry, our leaders have everything in control to prevent another depression. Look at how well they’ve handled the housing bubble and bust.
/off sarcasm
I like how our leaders and the talking heads keep saying no one saw this coming. If a bunch of us bloggers who can do basic math can figure out housing is overvalued and prices are unsustainable, how come the media, Wall St, sophisticated investors, and our politicains couldn’t?
Of course now the Fed gov wants me to help pay for my neighbors’ mortgage. Not only do i get to remain a renter, I get to subsidize my upside down neighbor’s lifestyle as well.
My reward for living within my means is to pay for this mess.
Third
From Bloomberg:
Europe’s Economy Contracts Most in at Least 13 Years
Europe’s economy contracted the most in at least 13 years in the fourth quarter, compounding pressure on the European Central Bank to reduce interest rates to the lowest ever next month.
Gross domestic product in the euro region declined 1.5 percent from the previous three months, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That was more than the 1.3 percent economists expected and the most since euro-area GDP records began in 1995. From a year earlier, GDP fell 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter, the only full-year drop on record.
…
“The news is dire,” said Kenneth Wattret, senior economist at BNP Paribas SA in London who correctly forecast today’s data. “Compared to the early 1990s recession, which was painful, this is twice as big.”
From the WSJ Law Blog:
2.12.09: The Darkest Day Ever for Big Law Firms?
We don’t know if we’re quite ready to answer the above question in the affirmative, but we’re getting close. What a day. The folks over at Above the Law have done yeoman’s work tallying up the damage. (That is, so far. The day ain’t even over.)
The day’s wreckage:
* DLA Piper announced it was laying off 80 lawyers and 100 staff members in the U.S.
* Goodwin Procter announced it was cutting 36 lawyers and 38 staff members
* Dechert cut 19 lawyers
* Faegre & Benson (yesterday) axed 29 lawyers
Rumors swirl around a number of others, too.
Update: The Law Blog learned independently that Holland & Knight has fired 70 lawyers and 173 staff. “Today, we began restructuring our operations to better meet the needs of our clients and to take steps to fully respond to the adverse effects of the current economic downturn,” the firm said in a statement.
From the Boston Herald:
Law firms laying off 1,000
It’s the legal world’s Valentine’s Day Massacre: American law firms just eliminated some 1,000 jobs.
“It’s been a crazy day,” said Elie Mystal, editor in chief of the legal industry Web site Above the Law, which has been tracking the layoffs.
With the economy in the dumps, the mergers and acquisitions that required legal expertise just aren’t happening. And the loss of revenue has forced many businesses to scrutinize their costs. So for a handful of reasons, law firms aren’t getting the amount of work they used to.
“Once the deals dry up, there’s not as much need for man hours,” Mystal said.
Since the start of 2009, he has reported on about 2,000 job cuts at law firms. Then yesterday, he tracked an additional 1,000 cuts.
From the National Law Journal:
Lessons learned in life after layoffs
For hundreds of law firm associates who have been dismissed during the past six months, jobs are scarce and competition for openings is fierce.
“I’ve done everything right my whole life and now there are zero opportunities,” said “Matthew,” one of several associates looking for work who agreed to talk about his job search experience as long as his real name was not used.
The out-of-work lawyers say they’re trying to refocus their résumés on experience that still counts in today’s marketplace and away from fields that are out of favor. They’re also now considering job options that pay less than they had hoped, require a geographic move or take them away from career paths they envisioned.
From Morrison & Foerster to Katten Muchin Rosenman to Dewey & LeBoeuf, major law firms and smaller ones have cut associates in offices across the country as work for certain practice groups has slowed, particularly in the real estate and corporate finance areas.
While some firms say associate dismissals were a direct result of the economic downturn, others point to poor performance reviews even as they acknowledge that a drop in client demand contributed to slashing associate ranks.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8308.html
Three scenarios from John Maudlin – Market Oracle Jan./09.
“There is a new bull market in our future – way down the road – biotech?
I hit upon this article while searching for references to previous recessions because we actually had no idea how we would come out of the 70’s. (I worked for UCB 71 – 76.)Skyrocketing unemployment and business failure.
But we did…
wage/price controls – oil crisis – it was a mess. S/L holding 5% mortgages and trying to pay out high interest rates on CDs. Junk bonds. Different crap – but crap just the same.
Many here will say this is different but I’ve mentioned this before..it sure feels like the 70’s.
lawyer friend in DC says yesterday was “black thursday” for attorneys in and around the city: 700 lost their jobs.
haven’t had the time to poke around the net about it yet, though
safety dance (2)-
Got ammo?
My company is profitable and provides vital margin for our parent corporation. We are going to go through a round of layoffs in the next few weeks. Targeting the mediocre performers. If the economy doesn’t get any worse, we are told we will be able to fill those positions with more qualified people. If things get worse, I guess even the above average folks will be in danger.
http://www.sacbee.com/capitolandcalifornia/story/1622037.html
Grim and other cycling enthusiasts…
The Amgen Tour of California is headed to my little town of Clovis..Lance will be in town on the 18th.
Ben, where are you? untouchable mercer county down 19%. Ouch.
I’m not buying until houses that resemble trailors, like this one in Hamilton, sell for $75K.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Hamilton_NJ_08690_1103027640?mp=1
I guess they’re thowing in the bubbled pergot as incentive.
did anyone catch ‘house of cards’ on CNBC last night?
any thoughts?
they did manage to NOT talk about realtors and appraisers….to me they were the ones on the ‘front lines’ propping up home values and luring in brain dead buyers….i am surprised that the realtors didnt check if those buyers could actually afford those homes!!!!
but overall i thought the ‘house of cards’ was pretty good
CAIBC
Has anyone used any of the foreclosure websites in the nj area? If so was it worth it?
If not how does one get a list of properties to research that are being foreclosed upon or are short sales? Is it just mining the information that is out there? Thanks to all….
i am surprised that the realtors didnt check if those buyers could actually afford those homes!!!!
You are kidding right? You really think they care?
grim…the NAR commercials led me to believe that the realtors are out there to be my long term friend, fostering a lifetime relationship, to help me achieve the american dream.
you are right, no where in those commercials does it say that any of it is actaully true!
I work for a law firm, all I can say is “no comment”:) The second round of staff layoffs will likely be coming soon. My department is spread so thin as it is that if they get rid of anyone else I am not sure if it would be better to be the one laid off or the one who still has a job.
“Compared to the early 1990s recession, which was painful, this is twice as big.”
When the smoke clears, 1990 will go down in history as a walk in the park. Buckle up.
CAIBC (17)-
Virtually all Realtors simply live to sell things. Anything. To anyone. At any price.
There are a few of us that care about being able to look people in the eye five years after the sale, but- judging by recent events- that number is painfully small.
“Many here will say this is different but I’ve mentioned this before..it sure feels like the 70’s.”
Cindy,
Yep. Stayin Alive.
NEW STOCK MARKET Terms
CEO –Chief Embezzlement Officer.
CFO– Corporate Fraud Officer.
BULL MARKET — A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.
BEAR MARKET — A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.
VALUE INVESTING — The art of buying low and selling lower.
P/E RATIO — The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.
BROKER — What my broker has made me.
STANDARD & POOR — Your life in a nutshell.
STOCK ANALYST — Idiot who just downgraded your stock.
STOCK SPLIT — When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.
FINANCIAL PLANNER — A guy whose phone has been disconnected.
MARKET CORRECTION — The day after you buy stocks.
CASH FLOW– The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.
YAHOO — What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.
WINDOWS — What you jump out of when you’re the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR — Past year investor who’s now locked up in a nuthouse.
PROFIT — An archaic word no longer in use.
BC (19)-
As insane as RTC was, I was at least going into auctions and bidding on real assets that had real value. They may have been built on bogus financing supported by bogus appraisals, but a well-located, turn-key, state-of-the-art Class A office building will ultimately throw off income.
This time around? We’re going to get taxpayer financing of hedge funds’ purchases of worthless paper. On top of that, the hedgies are going to short the issuers into the crapper. Trillions of dollars down the tubes…to purchase an illusion.
Big difference.
“After a week of unimpressive market starts, the administration tossed out another trial balloon in the form of housing assistance, which produced a 3 PM short squeeze. It’s that simple I guess. This is a script that’s hard to make-up but the new powers that be are roadtesting whatever might work.
The SPX traded down to near its recent 805 low as it hit 808. That’s when the news from the White House was leaked to Reuters of another plan. The timing was important and no doubt had the desired effect. And, this just in (just after the close, natch) Commerce Secretary Nominee Gregg withdraws his name. Holy screw-up Batman!”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/111144-friday-outlook-oversold-reversal?source=headline1
Yeah, the government doesn’t try to manipulate the market.:) That’s just with the press releases, doesn’t even touch the buying of futures etc behind the scenes.
American Express has my ass on a very tight leash. I didn’t have a credit limit before, now I can hardly spend one damn dime before I reach my damn limit. I saw a new car I want to get and but no one will lend me the damn money to get it. My real estate isn’t worth shlt in today’s market and I can’t pull out any cash. I’m a victim of the damn credit crunch and my ass is in a damn sling.
I want things back to the halcyon days of yore! I want my credit back and my real estate investments to climb in value again. We real estate investors are at a breaking point and, believe me, you don’t want us to force us to take to the damn streets! We’re highly upset.
Clot [23],
I agree. Back in 1990 there were tangible items that were going to auction. It was true price discovery, the market worked. Now? It’s just a bunch of intertwined crap, paper that is attached along a never ending daisy chain. Unfortunately, that chain is only as strong as the weakest link. Duck.
Lost in the shuffle yesterday:
Moody’s Downgrades More Mortgage Securities
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded another $15.93 billion of commercial mortgage-backed securities Thursday amid concerns losses would rise from increased leverage and reduced reserves to pay debt and loan losses.
The move follows the ratings firm’s announcement last week that it would review the ratings of some $300 billion of bonds backed by commercial real-estate loans. Including the latest round of downgrades, $181.48 billion of commercial mortgage-backed securities has been downgraded by Moody’s in the past week.
Moody’s, which on Thursday downgraded 81 classes of these securities and affirmed 45, expects a significant decline in future property cash flows on higher tenant defaults, bankruptcies and a sharp drop in lease-renewal rates. Those cut include 19 tranches valued at $3 billion at Deutsche Bank AG, 17 classes valued at $4.8 billion from Morgan Stanley and 14 classes valued at $2.2 billion from Citigroup Inc.
Amex = Warren Buffet’s bailout by the government. Just another rich douchebag making the most of his connections. Doesn’t hurt when so many wealthy and connected people hold Bershire shares too:)
“I saw a new car I want to get and but no one will lend me the damn money to get it.”
50.5,
Tough s*it. Maybe you just can’t afford that car. Hint; start saving. Going forward, consumption will be fueled by savings. 99% oof the Americam public is now looking at me like I have 3 heads. No comprenda.
Savings? Whats that?
This is a bunch of bullspit. There’s no damn mystery what I’m asking for on my real estate. You don’t have to “discover” shlt; it’s all there in black and white. The problem is that people like you don’t want to discover nothing but want to get a damn “steal”
BC Bob says:
February 13, 2009 at 8:08 am
Clot [23],
I agree. Back in 1990 there were tangible items that were going to auction. It was true price discovery, the market worked. Now? It’s just a bunch of intertwined crap, paper that is attached along a never ending daisy chain. Unfortunately, that chain is only as strong as the weakest link. Duck.
“Moody’s Downgrades More Mortgage Securities”
You can stimulate, add liquidity, inject capital, tarp, tarp 3.0, etc.. All an exercise in futility. All that is being accomplished is the creation of distortions in other area. Lending will contiune to experience a drought, as long as the underlying collateral continues to decline. Sorry, you simply can’t sustain the unsustainable.
It’s time to bury the hatchet, gimmicks don’t work. Walk away and employ creative destruction. The old economy is dead/buried. Destroy, it’s time to restructue and build from the ashes.
how can anyone save anything when 50% of take home income go toward the mrtg. the rest goes to the car payment, gas payment, insurance payment, utility bills, cable tv, home phone, cell phone, water bill, on and one more thing – FOOD!
savings at the end of the month is close to zero….BUT WAIT…from what i hear, my government is going to give me an extra 20 bucks per week from this ‘stimulus’ package…..phew thought i would have nothing to save but maybe (just maybe) i can save that 20 bucks per month – hey you have to start somewhere right?
how on earth did we (thought to be the smartest and brightest on the face of this earth) get into this situation?
Tard (31)-
This is perhaps the only intelligent statement you’ve ever made here…and you made it by accident. It IS “all there in black and white”: there are absolutely no buyers who will hit the bid.
“There’s no damn mystery what I’m asking for on my real estate. You don’t have to “discover” shlt; it’s all there in black and white.”
“I saw a new car I want to get and but no one will lend me the damn money to get it.”
Hear this in the press quite a bit, but if the auto loan market is like the mortgage market, I don’t believe it.
Cash is available to those with an income, assets, and good credit.
From my vantage point, mortgage money is available and being lent to qualified parties. Sure, credit standards are tighter than they were in the recent past, but are still nothing like they were in the 80s or 90s.
All of this chatter comes from the lenders and real estate brokers who are desperately trying to revive the bubble. These folks think the only way to cure a heroin addict is to give them more heroin.
Price discovery is a byatch, ain’t it?
Price discovery is just another damn term for ripping off people and not paying a fair price.
Let me tell you something, I’m not giving my house away for nothing. I’d rather run through hell in gasoline underdrawers than to sell my house to some damn vulture for less than its worth. Never.
From HousingWire:
Existing Home Prices in Record Free Fall: Report
Median sales prices for existing single-family homes continued to fall throughout the country in the fourth quarter, according to data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The NAR reported that 134 — or 87.6 percent — of the 153 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) studied showed a decline in median existing home prices since the same quarter in 2007, “pulled down by active sales at the lower end that were driven by foreclosures.” One MSA — Sioux Falls, S.D. — showed no year-over-year change from $142,400 in the fourth quarter 2007.
The national median existing single-family home price came in at $180,100 for the fourth quarter, a record fall of 12.4 percent during the fourth quarter when compared to the median of $205,700 during Q4 2007. Part of the drop was the result of a staggering ratio of foreclosure sales; 45 percent of transactions recorded for the quarter were distressed sales, according to the NAR’s data.
“Distressed home sales have risen from about 38 percent of transactions in the third quarter, meaning people are responding to discounted prices and are slowly absorbing the excess inventory,” said president Charles McMillan, a broker with Dallas-Fort Worth-based Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. “Buyers clearly see value in today’s pricing.”
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1879360,00.html?xid=rss-business
Ridiculous.
grim (35)-
Right you are. The money is there, but either the demand is slack or the prospective borrowers are deadbeats.
“There’s no damn mystery what I’m asking for on my real estate.”
50,5,
I agree you’re delusional. You can hope, pray, dream, etc.. Mr Market has other ideas. By the way, you can’t stop the tide once it turns, you will drown.
Black and white is very troubling for a RE bull.
Tard (37)-
Please send us some photos when you do this.
“I’d rather run through hell in gasoline underdrawers”
Tard-
Just how close to foreclosure are you? Do you need some counseling on what steps to take next?
The most difficult mortgage I’ve seen, in the past 6 months, was a purchase by a no doc/self employed small business owner. He had been approved for a loan in the high 300’s. He wanted to push that into the 400s and the bank asked him to raise his DP by 5% from 10% to 15%. Got the loan, no problem.
Not only did he get the loan, but he got a 5.75% rate which is downright CHEAP.
Alert, Alert!
Our desk tells me that Mrs Watanabe is now long the yen, buying on dips. HMMM.
From Bloomberg:
Mortgage Rescues Fail as Price Drops Spur Increase in Defaults
The Obama Administration wants banks to offer loans with easier terms to more than 2 million borrowers in danger of defaulting on their mortgages, twice as many as 2008. That won’t stem the foreclosure crisis if prices keep falling.
A third of owners will walk away when the value of their homes drops 20 percent or more below what they owe, even if they can afford the payments, a situation known as “rational default,” said Norm Miller, director of real estate programs at the University of San Diego School of Business Administration.
Obama has committed at least $50 billion in guarantees for lenders that negotiate new mortgage terms, and proposes putting taxpayer funds at risk for half of $444 billion of loans that would be modified this year. Fifty-eight percent of the modifications made during the first quarter of 2008 ended up back in default, according to the U.S. Treasury’s Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Unless lenders cut principal owed to reflect the current market value of properties, the same thing may happen this year, Miller said.
“The biggest reason modifications end up re-defaulting is because they are in markets where prices have continued to go down,” Miller said in an interview. “When people are underwater and don’t see an end to it, a lot of them just walk away, even if they can make their payments, because they don’t want to be wiped out financially.”
(cont)
\“We’re trying to make the financial decisions you made when you bought your house more affordable for you, not undo your bad real estate investments,” Wagner said. “When people say, ‘My home is underwater, therefore I can’t afford it,’ what they are saying is they have buyer’s remorse.”
James Muise of Billerica, Massachusetts, has seen his home’s value tumble $30,000 below his mortgage in the past 18 months. He got a modification last year that gave him a five-year reduction of interest on the 30-year mortgage he took out in 2007, cutting his monthly payment to $1,800 from $2,500. Still, he is on the edge of default, he said.
“I’m working 15 hours of overtime each week and I’m barely able to make the payment on a $280,000 house that has a $310,000 mortgage,” the 50-year-old exterminator said. “When I sit here deciding whether I should pay the heating bill or pay the mortgage, I’m close to handing the keys back to the bank.”
#44 – Had he waited until late December to close, I bet he would have gotten a low 5-handle rate.
“Virtually all Realtors simply live to sell things. Anything. To anyone. At any price.” – In fairness to realtors, (i refuse to capitalize it), that statement can probably be applied to 99.9% of people on earth, whether they’re selling real estate, pepsi, or their own talents. every interaction is a sales job and those who lie best usually win, at least for a while.
“Let me tell you something, I’m not giving my house away for nothing”
Just sell your house in 2025 and stop complaining.
There, problem solved.
Re 49,
That’s why I tell women who don’t know me that I’m independently wealthy and hung like a horse.
Cindy–You’re in Clovis? If you’d be interested in a western gtg with a lurker who is about to be starting over in Fresno, please e-mail me through Grim.
Excuse me, did I ask you for your damn advice? I don’t recall me having done that.
I need to sell my house now, damnit, and I’m not about to give it away to some damn vulture. They’re not making anymore real estate and at some point the buyers will be fighting and bidding against each other like before.
One of these days, my young liberal, you’re gonna learn how to respect your elders.
All Hype says:
February 13, 2009 at 8:38 am
“Let me tell you something, I’m not giving my house away for nothing”
Just sell your house in 2025 and stop complaining.
There, problem solved
What happens to asking prices on homes under hyper-inflation? Does a $400,000 house suddenly ask for $1,400,000?
If I believe we are headed towards hyper-inflation, do I want to lock in my rent payment for 3-4 years, buy a house now, or wait until inflation sets in and buy later?
If I am locked into a rental, say $2500 a month, which suddenly no longer covers my landlords bills and I only had a 1-year lease, can I expect said landlord to raise my rent to $10,000/month at lease renewal?
I know you need 10 billion zimbabwean dollars to buy a loaf of bread but I need to be schooled on how hyper inflation really works. Anyone have any good reading material they could point me to?
53 – so sell it. who’s stopping you?
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0209/18794.html
Gregg cited his problems with the economic stimulus bill, as well as partisan disagreements over how to run the 2010 census….
White House or independent oversight re the census…hum
Robert Fulghum needs to rewrite some of his famous “All I Really Need To Know I Learned in Kindergarten”
– play fair
– clean up your own mess
Our government is telling me that these two rules need not apply.
(52) Starting – Where is Fresno? Did you get a job here?
“I need to sell my house now, damnit, and I’m not about to give it away to some damn vulture”
50,5,
I’m certainly no vulture. That said, I am prepared to come to the table and start the bidding at 50-60% off peak. No contingencies. Deal?
Lots of newbies around yesterday….
maybe we need a primer up on the blog to go ahead and hip the whole crash denial thing in the bud…..
maple woods “wall street will support NJ prices” was classic!!!!!
——————————–
Seneca:
You skipped a step. you have to financially survive deflation before you worry about hyperinflation.
yes, a 500K mortgage in hyperinflation quickly becomes meaningless. but if you dont have a job and have lost the house due to unemployment or similar reasons during the deflationary period, then the relative price of the house becomes irrelevant.
We could see 30% U6 unemployment over the next 2 years. The focus during this period is to maintain any financial resources you may have. One the tide turns is when you look at grabbing assets
reinvestor, you want to sell you house?
put up a link and we ‘the bloggers’ will tell you what you will end up getting for it!
that may be in stark constrast to what you want for your home…but thats economics…its only worth what someone is willing to pay for it…
looking forward to the link..
A very dedicated group of real estate terrorists now rule this market. Their goal is to pay next to damn nothing for my house. I’m not about to let them get away with that. Never.
ruggles says:
February 13, 2009 at 8:57 am
53 – so sell it. who’s stopping you?
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/washington-whispers/2009/2/12/congressional-offices-dont-have-the-stimulus-bill-lobbyists-do.html
So…how long are the Reps supposed to have to review this thing?
Another rush job.
“I’m certainly no vulture. That said, I am prepared to come to the table and start the bidding at 50-60% off peak. No contingencies. Deal?”
If that’s your opening position, we have absolutely nothing to talk about. I want full price.
reinvestor…you really need to see the ‘house of cards’ episode from yesterday on CNBC…that ‘value’ you talk about in your home is inflated and part of a huge scam!!!!
all ‘bag holders’ will learn this lesson the hard way!
my suggestion to you is to either wait till 2025 (like someone else suggested) to take what you can get now cause its going to get a lot worse….
we dont want to hear that you are still a ‘bag holder’ 2 years from now!
reinvestor101 says:
February 13, 2009 at 9:01 am
A very dedicated group of real estate terrorists now rule this market. Their goal is to pay next to damn nothing for my house. I’m not about to let them get away with that. Never.
__________________________________
I think your last and only hope is to call the prez and get in line for the mortgage subsidies. It will kill you to do it but ya gotta do what ya gotta do because you will never get full price for your house in this market.
What? You must think I’m stupid. I’m not about to post some damn link and have all you terrorists targeting me. Hell, the first one to probably show up would be Clot and that damn sniveling mutt he always has with him.
CAIBC says:
February 13, 2009 at 9:00 am
reinvestor, you want to sell you house?
put up a link and we ‘the bloggers’ will tell you what you will end up getting for it!
that may be in stark constrast to what you want for your home…but thats economics…its only worth what someone is willing to pay for it…
looking forward to the link..
Ket (60)
So if I buy now and paid all cash (no mortgage), I am am idiot? Serious question. Big advantage on purchase if I say no contingency, NONE. will pay cash and have nothing to sell.
But I think this makes me an idiot if we are headed towards hyper inflation.
Seneca
If I am locked into a rental, say $2500 a month, which suddenly no longer covers my landlords bills and I only had a 1-year lease, can I expect said landlord to raise my rent to $10,000/month at lease renewal?
In a Zimbabwe model, yes. But that moedl of hyperinflation only works if wage inflation is occurring at the same rate other wise you end up with a standoff like you have in housing now.
“I want full price.”
50.5,
Luv it. Just classic.
Sounds like full of sheet price? No?
62 – well maybe maplewoodian can help you find the ready willing and able buyers out there that are supposedly keeping prices relatively stable.
in case you missed it, here ia another big blow to MM followers led by clot:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ai0cU_72bPpU&refer=home
Let me tell you something, I’m not giving my house away for nothing. I’d rather run through hell in gasoline underdrawers than to sell my house to some damn vulture for less than its worth. Never.
Your house is “worth” whatever the highest bidding vulture is willing to pay for it. You may choose to suspend mark to market accounting in your own mind. You may choose not to realize a loss via the price discover process of a sale. It doesn’t change the real underlying value of the asset.
The thing that separate professional investors/traders from amateurs is the “stop loss”. When the first signs of RE going south started to emerge in 2006, you should have hit a bid and gotten out, even if it meant a small loss.
The lumpen investeriat doesn’t tend to do that, however. They would rather suffer financial ruin than the indignation of not realizing the profit that is “rightfully theirs”. So, they hold on to the bitter end.
When you are finally ready to cut your losses, please let me know, because that will mark the bottom. I have cash & excellent credit and may be looking to pick up an investment house on the cheap.
I saw what you terrorists did to that poor guy yesterday. He came in talking real positively and you terrorists savaged him like Pavlov’s damn dogs hearing a bell signaling dinner. You guys don’t like positive and anyone who doesn’t stay in your amen corner will be savagely and brutally attacked. I’m used to this, but really felt bad for the new guy who is unaware of brutality of the terrorist scourge who brook no dissent.
ruggles says:
February 13, 2009 at 9:10 am
62 – well maybe maplewoodian can help you find the ready willing and able buyers out there that are supposedly keeping prices relatively stable.
“When you are finally ready to cut your losses, please let me know, because that will mark the bottom. I have cash & excellent credit and may be looking to pick up an investment house on the cheap.”
They’ll have ice skating rinks in hell before I give away my damn house. Never.
Here’s a potential Montclair Comp Killer that I’ve previously posted that’s dropped their asking price even further. Grim – how is this place not indicative of a declining market? There must be something super wrong with it, right? 4BR 3+ BA 3200 SF house on .37 acres close to midtown direct train with granite.
GSMLS 2587323 196 Park Street
Tax Assessed: $870,000
OLP: $849,000
DOM: 130
LP: $699,000 BRING ALL OFFERS!!!
#60 kettle: Not to correct you, but the quote was:
Wall St in PARTICULAR will be able to support high north jersey housing prices.
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c111:H.R.1:
So which one of these is the real deal?
Any of them?
Weren’t they supposed to post it for 48 hours before a vote?
Seneca 68
In my professional janitors opinion…
Your are not an idiot. A home for 99% of people is not an investment but a shelter for them and there family. From that perspective paying cash for your home is an insurance policy of sorts. How efficient that purchase is, is determined by the price you pay relative to the value of the property and the tax risk associated with owning the property.
You would also want to consider whether your assets may be safer in a form that has the potential to avoid the currency debasement games going on,such as metals, treasuries or some other form.
Consider that there is a good chance that a high percentage of people will see their financial assets wiped out during the deflationary period. So by paying for a house in cash and only having a tax liability, you have in some part protected your assets. Regardless of whether the value of the house goes up or down you will have shelter over your head and a warm place for your family.
ultimately its a risk assessment on your part. Cash is king during a deflationary period.
realize i have no idea what i am talking about
So if I buy now and paid all cash (no mortgage), I am am idiot? Serious question. Big advantage on purchase if I say no contingency, NONE. will pay cash and have nothing to sell.
But I think this makes me an idiot if we are headed towards hyper inflation.
The word terrorist gets thrown around so loosely these days.
#72 bi: Did you read the entire articel, or just the first 2 sentences?
Come back when you have read the article in its entireity.
Seneca,
Also consider that the US dollar doesnt have a bright future. That doesnt mean that it will completely collapse. But make no mistake, you are seeing the end of the US dollar as the global reserve currency. China, Russia, The middle east, are already working on forming a basket global reserve currency. This means that the US dollar will have to see major corrections at some point.
Like housing this probably wont happen over night and could takes years. How you account for this is a complex matter best left to the likes of some like BC bob to answer.
Dear Re: You are a grown-up. This is life. Suck it up and deal with it.
From bi’s bloomberg article at 72
“The economy is bottoming,” said Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse AG in Hong Kong, citing the PMI, the surge in bank lending, and spending on construction and machinery because of the infrastructure projects.
HAHAHAHAHA has this guy been hanging out with kramer, paulson and Bergabe????? maybe they should get this guy on CNBC
Excuse me for a moment, have to go load up on FXP
“Terrorism is the war of the poor, and war is the terrorism of the rich.” —Peter Ustinov
http://moreblaze.blogspot.com/2004/02/some-things-to-think-about-terrorism.html
Seneca et al
if i may quote Adam Smith
<i.”A dwelling-house, as such, contributes nothing to the revenue of its inhabitant,” Smith said in The Wealth of Nations. “If it is lett [sic] to a tenant for rent, as the house itself can produce nothing, the tenant must always pay the rent out of some other revenue.” Therefore Smith concluded that, although a house can make money for its owner if it is rented, “the revenue of the whole body of the people can never be in the smallest degree increased by it”.
02/13 09:17 DJ US Housing Sec Donovan: Loan Modifications ‘Must Accelerate’
#82 kettle:Like housing this probably wont happen over night
Housing looks to be declining at a nice clip to me. I don’t think it will take years.
The start of a new class war?
From CNBC:
US May Start Subsidizing Some Mortgage Payments
The Obama administration is hammering out a program to subsidize mortgages in a new front to fight the credit crisis, sources familiar with the plan told Reuters Thursday, firing financial markets.
In a major break from existing aid programs, the plan under consideration would seek to help homeowners before they fall into arrears on their loans. Current programs only assist borrowers that are already delinquent.
…
Under the evolving plan, homes would undergo a standardized reappraisal and homeowners would face a uniform eligibility test, sources said.
Bank regulators have used 38 percent of gross income as a benchmark for one mortgage relief program. If a homeowner is spending more than that amount on housing, they may qualify for a streamlined loan program, but the Obama administration may choose a lower percentage as a trigger for relief in any new plan.
BTW while you were blogging yesteday I managed to leave my corner office to visit with some BSDs, learned some stuff.
Citi ain’t going under, the MS JV of SB is a pretense, MS is going to take over whole thing and Jap sub is toast, C is selling it in 2009 even though they say they aint. They are going back to straight up US banking in a smaller form for now.
Economy is turning around towards the third quarter. There is light at the end of the tunnel.
Sorry to dissapoint today. Enjoy the long holiday weekend and great weather. Also the sales tax break on new cars goes up to 49K, with a 2009 5 series going for 48K maybe time to buy the wife a vd gift she actually likes and can use.
Ultimate punishment for the prudent homeowner.
You saved, you made a sizable down payment, you purchased a home you could afford.
You are a sucker.
3b, 81
Here’s the part of the article bi DIDN’T read:
=snip=
Exports fell by the most in almost 13 years in January, imports plummeted by a record 43 percent, and house prices across 70 major cities declined by the most since data began in 2005, according to a government report yesterday.
Companies fired workers at a faster pace in January than in December and most businesses faced tougher conditions, said Stephen Green, a Shanghai-based economist at Standard Chartered Bank. “Less bad news is not good news,” he said.
Even if stimulus spending creates 8 percent growth this year, meeting the government’s target, “it will unlikely be healthy, job-creating growth” because mostly it will boost demand for steel and cement and provide little support for consumption, said Green.
The World Bank said yesterday that China had made little progress in rebalancing the economy toward consumption and services from industry and investment.
=snip=
emphasis added.
sl
2009 5 series going for 48K maybe time to buy the wife a vd gift she actually likes and can use.
Putting your wife in a 5-series? Have you seen the side-impact ratings on that thing? Or is that the point? Hard to tell with you, John.
http://www.newser.com/article/d96anda00/congress-readies-final-vote-on-790b-stimulus-bill-after-overcoming-last-minute-snags.html
A few last-minute changes….
“One last minute addition was a $3.2B tax break for General Motors Corp. that would allow the ailing auto giant to use current losses to claim refunds for taxes paid when times were good…
“Then there was $8B for high-speed rail projects, a priority for both Obama and Reid, who’s up for re-election and is a GOP target. While not explicitly named, a Los Angeles to Los Vegas rail project that Reid’s been backing for years stands to win funding as does a project in Obama’s home state of Illinois.
Well there ya go..no earmarks though…just “last minute” changes…
BC(45)
Very interesting.It make wanna go HMMM!!
Economy is turning around towards the third quarter. There is light at the end of the tunnel.
______________________________________
Third quarter of what year?
John, please make sure you are around Memorial Day weekend so I can sit on your deck and see the mustard seeds grow into the next bull market. Let me know what kind of beer you like.
Quick, somebody find Frank. His recession proof retailer just took a spanking!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Abercrombie-amp-Fitch-4Q-apf-14351816.html
If they’re laying off lawyers, then things are really doomed.
EVERYBODY PANIC!!!
97 All Hype,
Don’t forget to bring some crow.
sl
I know you need 10 billion zimbabwean dollars to buy a loaf of bread but I need to be schooled on how hyper inflation really works. Anyone have any good reading material they could point me to?
you want to know how hyperinflation works:
There are two scenarios:
1. There is a sable currency to peg value of inflated currecy (in most other hyper-inflations recently it was dollar!).
thsi ways all transactions gets pegged to value fo “stable currency” – lets say in “so called arbitrary units” and how much good will cost will be determined in arbitrary units.
2. If there is no stable currency to peg dollar to – well than we are Fu2ked.
Economic system will collapse.
You won’t be worried about paying your rent. You will be worried about what are you and your family is going to eat.
IN general – make a distiction between high but controlled inflation – 100% year can still be controlled.
And run-away freight train of hyperinflation. lets say 10,000% year – or whatever value will be enough to trigger serious crisis of confidence.
Hyperinflation is all about trust and confidence in strength of the currency. Once people and other countries lose trust in currency nobody wants it – goverment is forced to print more – and situation simply gets worth.
Infurtunatelly – in high inflation – poor and old people (fixed incomes, low skills, low wages) are sufffering the most.
Hyperinfaltion – everybody is screwe4 – everybody.
3b 88
The real drop in housing started in 2006 – 2007. its 2009 and we still have another 40% to go at minimum. I still call a bottom in housing prices in 2011-2012.
We will be at bottom when the realtor’s signs on the front yard hard have a plaque hanging underneath saying
all hope abandon, ye who enter here
Driving to work this morning, I merged onto rte 22, immediately accelerated to 45mph – the limit – no more no less :)- and some crazy byatch in a mercedes accelerates right up to my bumper and starts honking. She is obviously offended there are other drivers, OK. She drops back, because she apparently is no longer in a hurry. I move to the left lane nad she follows from 200 feet behind and drives around me onto the shoulder to pass me!! And gives me the finger!! That is not the crazy part.
The crazy part is she is driving a car with her picture (and it was her), phone # and company on the side of the car. She is a realtor. I don’t know whether to report her, or hire her. I’m leaning toward the latter.
His favorite restaurant too, from CR:
After the stock market closed Thursday, Southern California chains Cheesecake Factory Inc. and California Pizza Kitchen Inc. both reported plunging same-store sales and profits.
“It is a very tough environment out there,” said Richard Rosenfield, co-chief executive of CPK
…
Cheesecake Factory said … Same-store sales decreased 7.1% … CPK said … Same-store sales slid 7.2%.
IMHO, it is pretty easy to still go out and cut costs dramatically.
No apps and no booze. You can still go out and probably spend 40% less just by cutting out some extras.
In all seriousness, thanks again from Mrs. Dawg and myself. We are expecting twins, and were seriously thinking about getting a house (pre-approved, saw a few houses), but ultimately realized that prices are still unsustainable here in New Jersey. With thousands losing their jobs (*crosses fingers, knocks wood*)and defaults skyrocketing, I can’t imagine how anybody can seriously believe housing prices will not fall drastically here in NJ over the next few months.
The price fall in NJ has been smaller than in CA, FL, etc., but I am convinced we will face a similar size correction–it will just lag behind the other states. New Jersey’s claim to immunity from home price declines was New York. Now that the New York market is starting to crack, the bottom will start to fall out in New Jersey.
NPR reported that CIA believes that new security threats are emerging in the form of social unrest. They have ranked these high on the totem pole when giving their brief this morning.
Frank,
this is for you….
Teen retailer Abercrombie & Fitch Co. said Friday its fourth-quarter profit slid 68 percent, weighed down by hefty asset impairment and tax costs and slumping sales.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Abercrombie-amp-Fitch-4Q-apf-14351816.html
grim says:
February 13, 2009 at 9:40 am
From CNBC:
US May Start Subsidizing Some Mortgage Payments
The Obama administration is hammering out a program to subsidize mortgages in a new front to fight the credit crisis, sources familiar with the plan told Reuters Thursday, firing financial markets.
Is it possible to start a calss action lawsuit againts the goverment for discrimination against renters/responsible homeowners???
Or it it better to just buy a too big of a house (or too expensive) right now with FHA loan at 3.5% downpayment, and stop paying the mortage? at worth case scenarion I am out what – 20K on 400K house… (its just one year rent anyways). And if they do not evict me for more than a year – good chances now – I am making a killing!!!
“If a bunch of us bloggers who can do basic math can figure out housing is overvalued and prices are unsustainable, how come the media, Wall St, sophisticated investors, and our politicains couldn’t?”
the people who did not benefit from the housing bubble were very small in number. So most people in America had strong incentive not to see the problem. I also think that many of the elite in this country are so far removed at this point from basic things like wondering whether they can afford housing that they could not understand how it could be a problem during the bubble.
sorry all hype, didnt see your earlier post.
No more H1-B visas. This should help NY employment picture.
Groups fight stimulus limit on workers with H-1B visas
http://www.nextgov.com/nextgov/ng_20090210_9809.php
#107,
But there’s a line on 5th Ave outside their store. NYC sales are still strong.
“John, please make sure you are around Memorial Day weekend so I can sit on your deck and see the mustard seeds grow into the next bull market.”
AH,
I’ll hitch a ride with you. Looking forward to this barbeque.
party at johns place on memorial day weekend???? we can make it a NJREreport GTG
#112 frank:
Well I spent the last week down the block on Water street,and the A&F there is empty.
No problem, my BMW has a larger trunk than my Benz so I will be driving that so I can fit in my bag loads of cash and mustard seeds. Even better, my GMC Monster Truck in cash I have trunk loads of cash and mustard seeds!!!Maybe we can go picasso and maybach shopping after beers!!!
All Hype says:
February 13, 2009 at 9:50 am
Economy is turning around towards the third quarter. There is light at the end of the tunnel.
______________________________________
Third quarter of what year?
John, please make sure you are around Memorial Day weekend so I can sit on your deck and see the mustard seeds grow into the next bull market. Let me know what kind of beer you like.
A&F was powered entirely by parents, allowances and car wash wage money.
GAP brands has something like 8 different stores and, best case, they’ll likely come out with half that
#93 Correct!!
#91 John:Economy is turning around towards the third quarter.
Based on what?
Just throw us a bone one item/fact that would indicate the economy is going to turn around towards the 3rd quarter.
Frank: No more H1-B visas. This should help NY employment picture.
You are clueless. US companies are benefiting significantly because of H1-B. Remove that benefit, and you even take one competitive advantage US companies have against rest of the world. In fact, such a move will fasten the move toward offshore outsourcing. Also large scale emigration of all existing H1-B holders will cause large amount of USD being taken out of country, as most would feel insecure in US Govt intentions and would try to move money to their native country.
In fact, at this point, US has to find its competitive advantage and give momentum boost. I would say giving Green card to existing H1B holders would do that. These folks have money saved and will buy houses if Green Cards are given. Right now in NJ-NY area there are large number of folks are not buying homes due to delay in getting GC.
#90 Subsidizing mtg pymts, means perspective home buyers will have to bid more aggressively.
Why woudl any one want to buy a house, knowing that the guy across the street is having his payment subsidized.
Welfare for homeowners??
There were lots of people buying breakfast in McDonald’s this morning. Where’s the recession?
106- NPR reported that CIA believes that new security threats are emerging in the form of social unrest
Thanks zeiba, any link?
I already know the answer but, did NPR happen to ask why the CIA would be assessing domestic threats when they are clearly not chartered for such actions?
““Virtually all Realtors simply live to sell things. Anything. To anyone. At any price.” – In fairness to realtors, (i refuse to capitalize it), that statement can probably be applied to 99.9% of people on earth, whether they’re selling real estate, pepsi, or their own talents. every interaction is a sales job and those who lie best usually win, at least for a while.”
But unfortunately, there is little harm is someone selling you an overpriced can of pepsi. A realtor is selling something that can put someone in debt the better half of their life.
#76
“Here’s a potential Montclair Comp Killer that I’ve previously posted that’s dropped their asking price even further. Grim – how is this place not indicative of a declining market? There must be something super wrong with it, right? 4BR 3+ BA 3200 SF house on .37 acres close to midtown direct train with granite.
GSMLS 2587323 196 Park Street
Tax Assessed: $870,000
OLP: $849,000
DOM: 130
LP: $699,000 BRING ALL OFFERS!!!”
**********
I don’t think there’s necessarily something wrong with it. I have been watching a house that is now owned by a relo company cut its asking price from $950k to 799k in a matter of 2 months. I went to see it when it was offered at $850k. there is nothing wrong with it, but I wasn’t interested at that price. if they get down to $700k asking I might get interested (place sold in 2006 for 1.2m)
“NPR reported that CIA believes that new security threats are emerging in the form of social unrest. They have ranked these high on the totem pole when giving their brief this morning.”
Damn right they are. People view Americans as docile. Unfortunately, Americans have shown that they are willing to riot over a Christmas sale. The social unrest potential in this country is enormous.
Chinese stocks rose Friday, lifting the benchmark index to a five-and-a-half-month closing high, adding to the luster of Shanghai as the world’s best performing market this year.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Shanghai-rises-adds-year-leader/story.aspx?guid=%7B33F71F5A%2D254B%2D4582%2D8851%2D40A759FD0086%7D
Baja Fresh in Middletown closed up shop this week. This along with Blue Tulip (next door to Whole Foods), and counteless Broad St. shops in Red Bank are indiciative of the current downtrend in Monmouth County. The NE part of Monmouth has a lot of Wall St & pharma workers and I have no doubt we are ony seeing the beginning of the pinch. Last week, a couple (both PhD’s) that we know is packing it up and moving out of NJ – this is the fourth or fifth couple in our circle of friends to do so. When does anecdata become data?
New listings in the better Middletown neighborhoods have slowed to a crawl (perhaps seasonal), there are probably >50 houses listed that have sat overpriced for over a year with meaningless or no price change.
Decent, well apointed homes that list agressively do seem to sell. Sellers really need to focus on getting it correctly priced the first time.
I may have bungled in translation, domestic vs. foreign, sounds like NPR was reading straight from this link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/washington/13intel.html?hp
#120,
Like or not it’s a law already, start packing your house.
#104
” California Pizza Kitchen Inc. both reported plunging same-store sales and profits.
“It is a very tough environment out there,” said Richard Rosenfield, co-chief executive of CPK”
********
it’s especially challenging when you make the most disgusting pizza known to man
Because a CEO I can name told me in person last night. Same CEO was grim in October.
3b says:
February 13, 2009 at 10:24 am
#91 John:Economy is turning around towards the third quarter.
Based on what?
Just throw us a bone one item/fact that would indicate the economy is going to turn around towards the 3rd quarter.
Re: 120 SG:
Most $$’s earned by H1B are already going back to country of origin.
Bottom line, if a company is taking my money to stay afloat they sure as shlt better hire a US citizen before giving a job to a foreign worker.
Grim,
These are some REO websites that I put together a long time ago in anticipation of this market. Might be good to place on the main page as a “REO Listings”.
Enjoy everyone…
Countrywide: http://www.countrywide.com/purchase/f_reo.asp
Wells Fargo: http://www.pasreo.com/pasreo/public/propertySearch.do
GMAC: http://www.gmacmortgage.com/reo/search/
Citi: http://www.citimortgage.com/Mortgage/Oreo/SearchListing.do
Washington Mutual:
Chase: http://mortgage.chase.com/pages/other/co_properties_landing.jsp
Bank of America: http://bankofamerica.reo.com/search/
PHH Mortgage:
SunTrust Mortgage: http://suntrust.res.net/
HSBC: http://www.banking.us.hsbc.com/HICServlet?cmd_PropertySearchDefault=cmd_PropertySearchDefault
IndyMac: http://apps.indymacbank.com/individuals/realestate/search.asp
Ocwen: http://www.ocwen.com/reo/home.cfm
M&T Bank: http://services.mandtbank.com/personal/bank_owned_prop.cfm
American Home Mortgage: http://www.ahmhomes.com/
Fannie Mae: http://reosearch.fanniemae.com/reosearch/
Freddie Mac: http://www.homesteps.com/hm01_1featuresearch.htm
Sallie Mae: http://www.grpcapital.com/properties/index.html
National City Mortgage: http://www.ncmcreo.com/PropertySearchResult.asp
Regions Financial: http://realestate.regions.com/servlet/Ore/ForeclosedPropertySearch.jsp
FDIC: http://www4.fdic.gov/DRRORE/
Complete Listing
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/wiki/REO_Database_List.asp
#128 – Thanks for the link zeiba!
Sorry if this repost again. If so, delete one of them
Countrywide: http://www.countrywide.com/purchase/f_reo.asp
Wells Fargo: http://www.pasreo.com/pasreo/public/propertySearch.do
GMAC: http://www.gmacmortgage.com/reo/search/
Citi: http://www.citimortgage.com/Mortgage/Oreo/SearchListing.do
Washington Mutual:
Chase: http://mortgage.chase.com/pages/other/co_properties_landing.jsp
Bank of America: http://bankofamerica.reo.com/search/
PHH Mortgage:
SunTrust Mortgage: http://suntrust.res.net/
HSBC: http://www.banking.us.hsbc.com/HICServlet?cmd_PropertySearchDefault=cmd_PropertySearchDefault
IndyMac: http://apps.indymacbank.com/individuals/realestate/search.asp
Ocwen: http://www.ocwen.com/reo/home.cfm
M&T Bank: http://services.mandtbank.com/personal/bank_owned_prop.cfm
American Home Mortgage: http://www.ahmhomes.com/
Fannie Mae: http://reosearch.fanniemae.com/reosearch/
Freddie Mac: http://www.homesteps.com/hm01_1featuresearch.htm
Sallie Mae: http://www.grpcapital.com/properties/index.html
National City Mortgage: http://www.ncmcreo.com/PropertySearchResult.asp
Regions Financial: http://realestate.regions.com/servlet/Ore/ForeclosedPropertySearch.jsp
FDIC: http://www4.fdic.gov/DRRORE/
Complete Listing
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/wiki/REO_Database_List.asp
Grim…..I’m in Mod Good list of REO websites
Hi Cindy: I have a new job with the federal courts in Fresno. I’ve made an offer on a house near the Fig Garden–we’ll see if it’s accepted. I was astounded by the number of empty houses I saw on my house-hunting trip (foreclosures, estates, and all sorts of other silly reasons). The housing downturn there is way ahead of New Jersey!
#131 John: WOW!!! A CEO told you, so it must be true!! I cannot believe that you would be that gullible,a nd accept his statement on face value.
Was it one of the same CEO’s who never acknowledged there was a problem in the first place??
So throw us a bone what did the CEO whose name cannot be mentioned base this belief on??
grim, #46
From that Bloomberg article:
The FDIC’s two-month-old “Mod in a Box” program, adopted by Citigroup Inc. earlier this month, puts the emphasis on using fixed rates to reduce payments to as low as 31 percent of borrower income. The guidelines can be used to adjust mortgages that have been packaged and sold in securities, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup and Bank of America Corp., recipients of more than $115 billion in government bailout funds, have committed to modifying at least $230 billion of mortgages. Almost one of every five U.S. loans was “underwater” at the end of the third quarter, according to data compiled by analysts at San Francisco-based First American CoreLogic Inc.
The new FDIC protocol uses principal deferral — segregating a portion of the loan into an interest-free balloon payment that will keep most homeowners from selling until prices return to pre-bust levels. It doesn’t suggest reducing principal to reflect the current value of the asset securing the mortgage.
The Mr. Mortgage blog had something to say about those balloon payments.
Unfortunately, Mr Mortgage, who used to be hosted off the Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter site, is moving to a new domain, and I can’t access the analysis he wrote. I’m getting his emails in-between, this is the article:
Mr Mortgage: Actual IndyMac (Exotic) Loan Modification (63)
Basically, he said the loans were so super-exotic, if they had been around during the bubble, the bubble would have been twice as big.
The IndyMac mod’s were designed by the FDIC.
Fuel for the fire for the “riots are coming” crowd.
The below article is about an armed hijacking in Westfield. It is on the (until recently) desirable north side of town on a quiet street with garden apartments and private homes, WAY too close to me.
Two Men Face Charges
In Westfield Carjacking
By SUZETTE F. STALKER
Specially Written for The Westfield Leader
WESTFIELD – Authorities arrested
two men last week on charges
related to an armed carjacking incident
that occurred in Westfield.
Elizabeth police took Jahlil Ballard,
20, of Springfield and Dyshun Durham,
19, of Roselle into custody in Elizabeth
at 2:42 a.m. on February 5, according
to Lieutenant Scott Rodger of
the Westfield Police Department.
The men are suspected of having
carjacked a Westfield resident at gunpoint
as he was parking his 2007
Toyota Prius on Sandra Circle at 11:27
p.m. on February 4.
Lieutenant Rodger said two individuals
brandishing a handgun and told him
they were taking his car. The victim
exited the vehicle, at which time the
suspects entered it and fled the scene.
The victim was unharmed, the lieutenant
stated.
At the time of their arrest, the suspects
were found to be in possession
of the victim’s car and also in possession of a loaded semi-automatic handgun, according to police.
Westfield authorities charged both
Ballard and Durham with carjacking,
unlawful possession of a weapon
and possession of a weapon for unlawful
purposes. They were held following
their arrest pending the setting
of bail by a State Superior Court
This is what I like about Wall Street, there is a certain smell in the air when things start to turn. Remember stocks always recover before the economy does. The full crisis mode of the 4th Q is over. The stimulus had something for everyone, the rich got AMT relief and bigger commuter reimbusement, the upper middle class can write off sales tax on a new car, the middle class can write off education expense and have payroll tax cuts and unemployed getting bigger unemployment checks and coba subsidized!!!! All while everything is on sale from stock, real estate, cars and electronics!!!!!! The end is near!!! Long live America. Also Hampton Rentals are way up this year, good sign, when you rent you house in Jan for 40K you are predicting a good economy. Finally, the common man pretty much buys when it is too high and sells at the bottom. Joe Blow the shoeshine boy is saying sell sell sell, to me that is a buy buy buy indicator. Finally, my low bids for bonds are being knocked down like a 12 year old in the fight ring. People are saying look we are done liquidating, I ain’t selling you munis at 6% or investment grade at 10%, I just hold those bad boys to maturity. That is a good sign, meaning margin calls have died down. Also we are around 30% in cash in BD accounts, record high. Lots of money on sidelines.
“Because a CEO I can name told me in person last night. Same CEO was grim in October.”
John,
Did he/she say that we are in the 9th inning?
JBJB/129-
FWIW – Former Zen Burger near me in Midtown has signs saying “Future location of Baja Fresh”
grim/rich: Would it be possible for one of you to provide me with the realtor office telephone # for this listing that is currently UC 2904536? Thanks
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Fell to 56.2
Confidence among U.S. consumers fell in February as job losses and declining prices for stocks and homes undermined Americans’ view of their financial well-being.
The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment fell to 56.2, from 61.2 in January. The drop is the first in three months and puts the index near a 28-year low of 55.3 reached in November.
The longest recession since 1982, including the loss of 3.57 million jobs, is damping Americans’ spirits, prompting them to curtail spending. Congress yesterday moved toward passage by the end of this week of a $789 billion economic stimulus plan that would cut taxes, extend unemployment benefits and expand federal spending on roads and other infrastructure.
“There is no imminent upturn in consumer spending on the horizon,” Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners LP in Greenwich, Connecticut, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It’s going to be rough sledding for at least the next two quarters.”
Economists forecast the sentiment gauge would drop to 60.2, according to the median of 58 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from 56.5 to 64.
The University of Michigan’s index of consumer expectations six months from now, which more closely predicts the direction of consumer spending, fell to 49.1, the lowest since 1980, from 57.8 in January.
RE: “A home for 99% of people is not an investment but a shelter for them and there family.”
Disagree. Whether they acknowledge it or not, home “owners” are real estate investors by default. Where they enter the market cycle (peak, trough, or the middle) can impact their long term financial well being tremendously.
If people just want “shelter,” they should rent.
#143 John: Who is renting those houses in the Hamptons this year?
So soem AMT relief,a nd the ability to write off sales tax ona new car, along with soem of your other krpa you threw in there,and all will be well.
How about jobs?? I guess we don’t need those to have a thriving economy.
143#, john, i didn’t see comulter reimbusement in the package. Can you elaborate it? Thanks
>The stimulus had something for everyone, the rich got AMT relief and bigger commuter reimbusement, the upper middle class can write off sales tax on a new car, the middle class can write off education expense and have payroll tax cuts and unemployed getting bigger unemployment checks and coba subsidized!!!!
bklynhawk says:
February 13, 2009 at 11:11 am
JBJB/129-
FWIW – Former Zen Burger near me in Midtown has signs saying “Future location of Baja Fresh”
The one on Lex and 45th?
Also from the goleader in Brigadoon
An ad for Burgdorff’s proudly displays an picture of a house (14 endor ln mountainside – I recognized it) that says $575,000.
The text states that it sold for 89% (we’rebragging about 89% now?) of its list price in only 24 days. Well, fair enough, but it sold for $510,000, 89% of the big pretty number they show. And it was listed for months at $639,000.
What’s that thing Grim always used to say. Oh yeah. Caveat Emptor.
Re 150, for those of us who take mass transist and do the commuter check thing through work the first 250 each month can be paid on a pre-tax basis!!!
From MarketWatch:
Obama says stimulus plan first step in reviving economy
Recovery will be measured in years, not months: Obama
Yesterday John said he would watch “House of Cards” on CNBC, and discuss today. Today he writes: “Economy is turning around towards the third quarter. There is light at the end of the tunnel.”
Clear evidence of fear? House of Cards painted a devastating picture with no exits.
http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzhamp1312451976feb13,0,4365444.story
Here is the article about Hot Rental Market in Hamptons.
Qwerty
An investment suggests one is attempting to generate a return on said investment.
Just because someone is a market participant in real estate (i,e wants to buy a house for their family) does not make them an investor. An investor is someone who is buying in order to make a return on their initial purchase, such as a landlord or a flipper.
Just because i buy a car does not mean i am investing in the auto market.
The way i read your point of view would seem to suggest that an expenditure of capital makes you an investor in one market or another. That seems somewhat extreme.
you are also oversimplifying the rent/ by question. You are right that sometime it does make more sense to rent. but other time it makes more sense to buy, hence the whole debate over buy/rent ratios and purchase price to income ratios
HA. When every newspaper, magazine and TV show paints the picture only a complete idiot would buy a house or invest in RE that is a good sign we are near bottom. It is a leading indicator, just like when every show said buy RE was an indicator to sell.
Qwerty says:
February 13, 2009 at 11:26 am
Yesterday John said he would watch “House of Cards” on CNBC, and discuss today. Today he writes: “Economy is turning around towards the third quarter. There is light at the end of the tunnel.”
Clear evidence of fear? House of Cards painted a devastating picture with no exits.
So if the 38% of your gross is the sweet spot, I am paying 60% less than that on a rental…seems like a win for me to rent now.
Baja Fresh, California Pizza Kitchen? Closing up shop? Any other pseudo California cuisine shops poised to go out of business in New Jersey?
One thing I’ve noticed. You know those pizza places that you always have to wait forever to get into? Brooklyn’s in Hackensack. Pete and Eldas in Neptune. Delorenzo’s in Trenton. etc…. You still have to wait 2 hours. Only the strong survive.
# 33 CAIBC…that extra money in my paycheck will equal one more percent in my 401…just more savings for me
#143 John: The article below is from hamptons.wordpress.com on it is an article regarding hamptons summer rentals for 2009.
I could not post the link, so I copied and pasted. Oh and they don’t look good.
Why do you continue to pull stuff out of your arse.
28/09 at 11:15AM
Hamptons summer rental season not hot
Corcoran’s Rick Hoffman
By Candace Taylor
Usually, frigid winter days — like today — are when smart New Yorkers secure their Hamptons rentals for the summer.
Not so this year. Though it’s early in the season, brokers say the number of Hamptons rental transactions so far is way down in the wake of this fall’s financial crisis.
Michael Daly, principal broker at True North Realty Associates in North Haven on Long Island’s East End, estimated that the number of rental transactions may be down by as much as 80 to 90 percent from last year at this time. Since about 10 percent of homes are rented by this time of year, that could translate to more than 1,000 fewer transactions, since there were roughly 13,000 East End homes on the market last year, according to figures from Town & Country Real Estate.
Daly, who is the author of the Hamptons Real Estate Blog, said he’d done three rentals by this time last year, but hasn’t done any so far.
“Rentals are way down and there’s very little activity,” Daly said.
Still, another factor could be that renters are simply slower to make decisions this year, said Rick Hoffman, the Corcoran Group’s regional senior vice president for the East End.
“I think that we’re looking at a later market,” said Hoffman. The uncertainty in the financial markets and the job market “is causing people to be more hesitant in making commitments early on,” he said.
The bellwether will be President’s weekend in February, said Judi Desiderio, the CEO of Town & Country Real Estate. After that week, when kids are out of school, about 50 percent of the year’s Hamptons rentals generally have been booked, she said.
Asking rents also are down, brokers reported.
James Young, a principal broker at the real estate brokerage Rosehip Partners, said he’s noticed that sellers who are renting their homes on the company’s Web site, http://www.hamptonsrentals.com, have begun dropping their asking rents by 10 to 15 percent. The site, founded in July, allows sellers to post and modify their own listings. Today there are 500 listings on his site.
“People are lowering their prices in our system,” Young said. “We are starting to see people knocking off 10 percent.”
Even if homeowners aren’t officially lowering their asking rents, actual rents are often more negotiable, Daly said.
“I’m hearing about more flexibility in their prices,” he said.
Brokers attributed the weak rental market to layoffs on Wall Street and general economic malaise.
“Even people with a lot of money are not wanting to part with it,” Daly said. “They’re concerned about what other financial calamities might happen.”
Another reason for the rental slowdown is that many renters seem to be more interested in bargain-hunting than serious shopping. Young said he recently showed a summer rental in Amagansett to a group of Wall Streeters who mentioned that “their intention was to offer significantly less than the asking price.” Young tried to dissuade them but they persisted, and the owner rejected the offer, causing the deal to fall through. Another broker at his firm had a similar experience, he said.
Renters are “looking, but they’re not pulling the trigger,” Young said, adding that while many owners seem willing to negotiate, most haven’t yet significantly reduced their prices. “Homeowners aren’t motivated to drop their pants, as it were, but that might change.”
There are also more rentals available this year, brokers said, thanks to cash-strapped owners and unsold spec homes that are being rented by their builders.
The inventory of available rental listings on the East End has jumped about 10 percent from around 13,000 last year to roughly 15,000, Desiderio said. That figure is troubling because “we don’t anticipate 10 percent more demand,” she said.
While lower prices and more choices are good news for sun-worshipping New Yorkers, a weak rental season could have severe consequences for the Hamptons real estate market.
“It’s the rental market here which has been the saving grace for a lot of homeowners,” Daly said. “In the past, if they couldn’t sell, they were typically able to rent.”
For those teetering on the brink of foreclosure, lower rents — or not being able to rent out their properties at all — could be the last straw.
“If this is a very weak rental season, we could see more defaults,” Daly said.
My husband gave me the following scenario.
if a person put $10,000 in the fidelity contra fund the day after the 87 crash (down 25% in a day) and held it for 20 years..they had 1 million. So, if I get into the market at a low with my sideline money great. Much better investment than putting that money on house. I doubt I would get that kind of return on a house in 20 years…all disclaimers
Hey John, in case you missed it:
For those teetering on the brink of foreclosure, lower rents — or not being able to rent out their properties at all — could be the last straw.
“If this is a very weak rental season, we could see more defaults,” Daly said.
sl
ps “Denial” – not just a river in Egypt.
the word social-ism gets thrown around a lot, but if the gov’t starts taking from some people to pay other people’s mortgages then I don’t know what else you can call it. Mr. O is treading on very thin ice with this one. Clin-ton realized that support for unchecked welfare was dooming the dems so he reformed it. Well, Mr O is proposing going way beyond welfare right now.
#157 kettle: does make more sense to rent. but other time it makes more sense to buy, hence the whole debate over buy/rent ratios and purchase price to income ratios
I am wondering with NJ’s out of control property taxes if it will ever make sense to buy.
The taxes are more of a concern than price
Despite recession, East End summer rentals in demandBY GARY DYMSKI | gary.dymski@newsday.com
8:05 PM EST, February 12, 2009
The recession aside, all indications point to a strong season for the high-end East End summer rental market, area real estate brokers say.
Several factors — a good number of early leases, a soft real estate market that has traditionally been solid for rentals and a steady flow of inquiries — tell them vacationers again will fill the beaches, nightclubs, shops and restaurants in the playground of the rich and famous.
Judi Desiderio, chief executive of Town & Country Real Estate, said her offices have been getting a good number of early bookings – nearly 100 going into this weekend, about average for this time of the year — including an oceanfront Amagansett house for $275,000 for July.
“This weekend almost all the brokers I know are showing rentals,” said Elisabeth Mills of The Corcoran Group. “There definitely is strong demand.”
Blvd gardens a queens coop back at last bottom was selling coops in 1992 for one dollar each, they are all 100K each now.
House Hunter says:
February 13, 2009 at 11:35 am
My husband gave me the following scenario.
if a person put $10,000 in the fidelity contra fund the day after the 87 crash (down 25% in a day) and held it for 20 years..they had 1 million. So, if I get into the market at a low with my sideline money great. Much better investment than putting that money on house. I doubt I would get that kind of return on a house in 20 years…all disclaimers
3b, 166
The taxes are more of a concern than price.
Exactly my conundrum.
And then factor in what will taxes look like in 5, 10 15 yrs?
1) can I retire and afford taxes?
2) will I be able to sell my house reasonably.
3) am I better off renting instead?
4) what is the 20-30 yr outlook? (no one knows…)
I’m getting a headache….[rummaging around for Advil bottle]
sl
#79 kettle: Everyone I know who purchased or did major renovatiosn to their houses over the last few years, did because of the investment aspect.
Buy now as it will be 50-100k more next year, so I made on my investment.
Renovate/add on becasue the 50 -100k or more I spend in renovations/addition will add another 100-200k to the value of my house.
Breaking from CNBC:
JPMorgan Chase Announces 3-Week Foreclosure Moratorium; Citigroup Also Announcing Moratorium
Posturing? After all, 3 weeks won’t make much of a difference.
Or buying time in order to talk with Timmay.
Cindy..DR housing bubble has new article out on CA
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/
#169 still: I ask myself those very same questions. The average tax bill in my so called blue ribbon BC Train town is almost 10k a year, with no end in increases in sight.
Looking at preliminary budget #’s for 2009 (school/municipal/county) we are looking at another $700-$800 a year increase. Taxes in my town have increased by over 40% in roughly 6 years, due to out of control referenddum spending approved by the residents.
Few seemed to care as prices were going up every year, and the more we spend on our schools the more our houses will be worth, was the prevailing attitude.
Anyone who voiced a different opinion was ostracized or pitied as not being “affluent”.
#171
“JPMorgan Chase Announces 3-Week Foreclosure Moratorium; Citigroup Also Announcing Moratorium”
what I have read is that they are doing this to give Treasury a window to announce its foreclosure avoidance plan
How Banks Are Worsening the Foreclosure Crisis
A major reason financial institutions and investors are so determined to avoid modifying loan terms more aggressively has to do with accounting nuances, say industry lobbyists. If, for example, a bank lowered the balance of a certain mortgage, there would be a strong argument that it would have to reduce the value on its balance sheet of all similar mortgages in the same geographic area to reflect the danger that the region had hit an economic slump. Under this stringent approach, financial industry mortgage-related losses could far surpass even the grim $1.1 trillion estimated by Goldman Sachs in January. A desire to postpone this devastating situation helps explain lenders’ intransigence, says Rick Sharga, vice-president of marketing at RealtyTrac, an Irvine (Calif.) firm that analyzes foreclosure patterns.
Kelete’s monthly bill rose to $3,900. In October 2008, he called Hope Now. A counselor set up a conference call with First Franklin. The lender’s representative said Kelete should get another job or give up the house, the borrower says. Kelete responded that he’d already lost his second job cleaning offices and couldn’t find another in a faltering California economy. “Why don’t you work with me?” he asked First Franklin. The lender declined. The Hope Now counselor said there was nothing more to do. “Foreclosure is the only future I see,” Kelete says. A spokesman for BofA, which acquired Merrill in December, declined to comment, citing the borrower’s privacy.
sl (169) –
“am I better off renting instead?”
– But, if taxes rise, won’t those be reflected in the rental price?
RE: “Just because i buy a car does not mean i am investing in the auto market.”
Cars and housing are two different animals. Housing does produce a return when not bought at market peaks.
And even if they “don’t care” about returns and buy at Bubble Peak, that doesn’t mean they haven’t lost opportunity costs, mortgage interest, etc — reducing their net worth and damaging their financial well being.
I think the point stands that all property “owners” are real estate investors by default.
I cannot wait to buy a house and immediately stop paying my mortgage. I can live rent free for a 18 months, cry poverty and then get assistance from the taxpayers.
Now that is the American dream.
#167 John: Well John you posted yours (hampton info), and I posted mine.
There appears to be a huge difference in opinion amongst the hamptons realtors.
vic 177,
I’m guessing it will depend on the rental market at that time.
a landlord can raise rent based on their taxes going up…. but someone has to be willing to pay said increase, too.
I dunno.
sl
#177 victorian: With a rental you have flexibility with increases if you have a 2-3 year lease, the owner cannot raise your rent every year.
Of course at lease renewal time the owner could increase the rent to reflcet the increase in taxes, but it they have a good tennant they may be reluctant to.
“Exactly my conundrum.”
SL,
Ditto. 30-50% off peak is a slam dunk. However, 12k taxes will be approx 24K in 12 years.
BC, 183
Ditto. 30-50% off peak is a slam dunk. However, 12k taxes will be approx 24K in 12 years.
I don’t see myself affording that…not on a school cafeteria’s bologna sandwich maker’s salary ;)
Dang it! where is that mayonnaise I left out overnight…ah! there… good. (Spreads much easier if you leave it out overnight.)
sl
wow (from WSJ):
“In 2008’s fourth quarter, consumer spending on food fell at an inflation-adjusted 3.7% from the third quarter, according to data from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. That is the steepest decline in the 62 years the government has compiled the figure.”
Qwerty,
I think the point stands that all property “owners” are real estate investors by default.
An investor and a simple market participate have fundamentally different goals.
the definintion of an investor is
someone who commits capital in order to gain financial returns
Joe blow, buying a house for him and his family to live in for the next 30 years and who has no intention of attempting to make money off of the home is not an investor.
he is a market participant and is there for helping to determine price levels, but that is not the same as an investor.
I can invest in cars or buy a car. A hand full of cars can be purchased and later sold for a profit. But the average person is only buying to gain utility of the resource, whether a home or a car. An investor is buying not with utility as their primary purpose but with a financial gain as their primary purpose even if they do gain so portion of utility in the interim.
You cannot put both market participants in the same class (investor) when they have 2 different primary goals.
Also remember that long term, home owner ship is a break even proposition at best!
Outofstater says:
February 13, 2009 at 9:28 am
Dear Re: You are a grown-up. This is life. Suck it up and deal with it.
Hey, aren’t you that guy who is an alumnus of the damn armpit of the Big Ten (Purdue)?
I hate Purdue. I put boilermakers right down there with real estate terrorists.
“I hate Purdue.”
50.5,
Boiler Up.
SL 184
We are going to have some serious words between us if you keep feed those kids that day old mayo. I am sick of mopping up their vomit!
Victorian 177: Do rents go down when the landlord’s costs go down?
U.S. Homeowners Will Lose Up to $10 Trillion
John R. Talbott, a former Goldman Sachs banker, calls himself both an optimist and a realist. When it comes to U.S. housing, the realist has the upper hand. His new book, “Contagion,” predicts that prices are only halfway through a potential decline that will see homeowners lose up to $10 trillion. Values will fall for four to five more years, he says, as defaults move from subprime to prime mortgages. When I reviewed the book last week, some readers called the author courageous. Others accused him of being a doomsayer.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601088&sid=ahOc6ZN_3HE0&refer=home
Vic 177
Thats a heck of a stand off. rents are coming down as they have been inflated as well at the same time taxes are going up. The end result is a know. How e get there will be a wild ride
[9] yikes,
That was the ABA headline, just shy of 700 lawyers and a lot of staff cuts at other firms. In fact, todays on line journal had nothing but stories about law firm cutbacks.
While not exactly prescient, I saw years ago that the big firm model was vulnerable to this, and the associates always took it on the chin in a downturn (which causes BIGLAW firms to pay more to attract talent, and thus a vicious cycle). So I changed practice areas and sought safer ground. Now I am at a mid-sized firm that is better positioned to ride this out (I hope). I don’t make as much as I used to at my last firm (a major NYC firm) but I have far better QOL and something fewer of them have—a job.
well, given that the gov’t is going to announce its magical new plan to stabilize the housing market in 3 weeks, I would think that transactions will fall off a cliff starting now
160
Ben
I walked right into Pete and Elda’s on Saturday. The bar wasn’t even half full, no wait at all.
My wife loves their pizza. I think it sucks.
10K taxes are expensive for a blue ribbon town with award winning schools, parks, a train station and 30 minute commute? Joe Blow with 3 kids is getting 45K worth of education alone each year.
#171 – Breaking from CNBC:
JPMorgan Chase Announces 3-Week Foreclosure Moratorium; Citigroup Also Announcing Moratorium
Why do I think this is an accounting trick so they don’t have to realize losses?
[142] RayC.
Or me. I am only about a mile from there.
Time to warn the women and neighbors to be careful of unfamiliar faces.
#197
They are making these toxic assets more difficult to price. God help us all.
#196 John: You are delusional if you truly believe that.
It is apparent that you have not a clue when it comes to public schools.
#193 non: Guess those affected will not be in the Hamptons this summer.
Signs of the Times: bad economy good for noodles
[103] RayC
So? Dime her out already. She has no privacy rights. I want to know who the threats are in my community, and treat them like the terrorists that they are.
If you aren’t comfortable with names, how about the agency and initials?
Hughesrep 195
ditto delorenzo’s in trenton
i make better pizza at home.
sl
“10K taxes are expensive for a blue ribbon town with award winning schools, parks, a train station and 30 minute commute? Joe Blow with 3 kids is getting 45K worth of education alone each year.”
Award winning schools? Not for nothing, but giving any school an award is the same thing as giving the Bad New Bears a 10th place trophy. Every school in this state is getting their butt kicked by Europe and Asia.
“Ben
I walked right into Pete and Elda’s on Saturday. The bar wasn’t even half full, no wait at all.
My wife loves their pizza. I think it sucks.”
I’m not going to get into a pizza argument. No two people in New Jersey will ever agree on who’s pizza is good and who’s isn’t.
I have two kids in public school and they love it.
I also don’t know anyone who is truly can’t find a job. One girl who is an ex-IB person does not want to go back to accounting, one who is an Fed person does not want to go back to Fed and another is one of those six sixma PMO mumbo jumbo guys who wants a job tracking project rather than doing projects. All three said when severance is over they wil start looking for second choice jobs, but for now why bother. Hardly the great depression.
Fair Value for S&P = 440
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/fair-value-for-sp-440/
[103] RayC
“The crazy part is she is driving a car with her picture (and it was her), phone # and company on the side of the car. She is a realtor.”
I’m serious. I really want to know who that is, and if she is working in or around Brigadoon.
[201] 3b
True. But that leaves more room for John and his harem.
Cash-strapped Citi is buying every mortgage bond under the sun.
CUSIP BOND OF//CF
17307GU22 CMLTI 05-10 1A5A 23.248mm//14.458mm CITI BUYS
46629CAC1 JPMMT 06-A5 2A2 40.026mm//18.430mm CITI BUYS
93362FAF0 WAMU 06-AR8 2A1 40.000mm//18.223mm CITI BUYS
Ben,
correction, every PUBLIC school in the state is getting their butt kicked by europe and asia…
private school is not a panacea, but does offer better opportunities if you actively search them out
“Ben, where are you? untouchable mercer county down 19%. Ouch.
I’m not buying until houses that resemble trailors, like this one in Hamilton, sell for $75K.”
Yeah, Mercer county is probably in worse shape than North Jersey because they did have a lot of stupid home building going on. There is this one Khov development around Hamilton or Bordentown, I forget which one. But there is a huge old red barn that is in good condition behind them. The town approved the barn to be turned into condos inside. Who the hell got the idea to turn a barn into condos? It would give a whole new meaning to the statement “did you live in a barn?”.
#207 John: not discussing yoru kids in public school.
I am talking about your comment on the education cost, ah never mind, why bother. It is like talking to a wall.
Ben at one time I had 40 Big 4 asians working for me. All top schools. These guys knew every formula, equation, fact etc. But why was I there boss, cause they have robotic learning. He is an example, on a Sarbanes-Oxley engagement they memorized the rules but materiality is subjective and you have to come up with the number on your own based on your own reasoning. Not one of them could do it. They spit back facts. I on other hand could not memorized the ingrediants in a vodka and tonic yet I was thought to think, they were not. I got flow to Tokyo and treated like a king just to explain how to determine materiality. Me so smart. Me So Soup. The USA education system is amazing. Other cultures kill peoples talents. Ours lets the talents thirve!!! I can’t spell or do math very well but I can do a presentation in front of several hundred people and wing it. USA teaches us how to wing it!!!! That is why we are number one. You think the asians could have invented subprime loans?? HA HA, they so smart why they buy them.
“private school is not a panacea, but does offer better opportunities if you actively search them out”
I wouldn’t know. I don’t have access to any private school’s student performance records. This is to be expected though. Private school will always outperform public school.
from cnbc:
Citi, BoA, “Gone” in a Year.
“Those were the words this week from Don Straszheim of Straszheim Global Advisors. He was speaking at the annual forecast dinner for the CFA Society of San Diego. “Gone?” I asked him in disbelief. “You mean, like no more Bank of America Versateller ATM for me?” Well, no, he told me. “Just gone as in no shareholder equity left. I don’t see how B of A or Citi can be worth anything.”
. . . .
Straszheim, a well-known expert on China, says we are in the middle of a “global buyers’ strike.”
What’s more, he says the stimulus plan “makes no sense…it’s crazy”. Why? It’s too big, for one thing. Any stimulus check or tax cut he gets would go into savings, not into spending, “because that’s the right thing to do.” Instead, Straszheim would prefer a package of $250 billion, with most of that going to “those bleeding the most,” that is, the unemployed, etc.
Straszheim really gets worked up over the government’s desire to get consumers borrowing to spend again, believing one of the worst things that could happen is cheap credit. “I remember when a credit card was for convenience, not a reason to buy things we can’t afford.” He’d be happy to see credit card interest rates double. He also predicts more gloom for the retail sector, saying years of easy credit have led to “30 percent too much capacity in the retail system”, and a lot of stores won’t survive.
Other thoughts from Straszheim:
“I think there’s gonna be real brain drain from all those companies that have TARP money to those that don’t.”
“China is going to be weaker I think than most anyone believes.” He predicts only two percent growth in China this year, but believes Chinese companies are still a better play than multinationals, suggesting investors look into the FXI, an ETF filled with 25 state-owned companies.
Finally, Straszheim predicts the financial sector, which has already fallen to only 10 percent of total value of the S&P 500, will fall to three percent by the end of 2009. Still, for the market overall, he says, “Fortunes are made at bottoms not at tops.”
SONDERS–“MORE CONSTRUCTIVE NOW”
Liz Ann Sonders, who turned bearish is mid 2006, says that now, “I’m not boldly optimistic but more constructive” about the market. She agrees with Straszheim that the “politicians are wrong” for thinking the solution to fixing our economy is to stimulate lending to consumers–that’s what got us in trouble in the first place.
She believes Treasuries are in a bubble, but isn’t sure when that’ll pop. However, she says the yield curve is signaling a recovery.
And using history as a guide, Sonders pointed to some hopeful signs. For one thing, she says recessions in the post WWII era usually last 13 months, and we are 14 months into this one.
Sonders points to a couple of indicators, one worth noting, the other she says you should ignore. The one worth noting is GDP. Historically, once the GDP hits its lowest point in a recession, a year later the S&P 500 jumps 25 percent. The indicator you should ignore is unemployment. In her opinion it is a massively lagging indicator, peaking, on average, six months AFTER a recession ends and probably a year after the stock market bottoms.
Finally, Sonders says people are starting to invest again. In December, 42 percent of US investments were in cash, 42 percent in stocks, and 16 percent in bonds and bond funds. One month later in January, the breakdown had changed to only 30 percent cash, 48 percent stocks, and 22 percent bonds and bond funds. “The deer in the headlights era has passed.”
“I have two kids in public school and they love it. ”
John, of course they love it. They don’t have to learn anything and they get good grades for not doing any work. Then they come to me their freshman year of college and ask me why they are failing.
“Citi, BoA, “Gone” in a Year.”
Citi is buying every crappy mortgage bond under the sun.
Anyone know how to get existimg home sales data in Austria?
The Mortgage Rescue Plan: Will It Work?
The answer? An emphatic no. This is simply the latest example of legal plunder perpetrated by the federal government against law-abiding, tax-paying citizens.
The Obama administration’s scheme to help troubled borrowers centers on subsidizing interest payments, which would help borrowers make ends meet without angering those investors expecting full payments each month. This marks the first time the government is intervening directly with taxpayer funds to ease the burden of monthly mortgage payments.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/C-bac-mortgage-foreclosures-wfc-loan/index/a/21137
Ailing Banks May Require More Aid to Keep Solvent
Some of the nation’s large banks, according to economists and other finance experts, are like dead men walking.
Raghuram G. Rajan, a professor of finance and an economist at the University of Chicago graduate business school, draws the distinction between “liquidation values” and those of calmer times, or “going concern values.” In a troubled time for banks, Mr. Rajan said, analysts are constantly scrutinizing current and potential losses at the banks, but that is not the norm.
“If they had to sell these securities today, the losses would be far beyond their capital at this point,” he said. “But if the prices of these assets will recover over the next year or so, if they don’t have to sell at distress prices, the banks could have a new lease on life by giving them some time.”
#207 John:Hardly the great depression.
It may well be, when the severance runs out. There was no severance during the Great Depression days.
But I am seeing some of what you claim to see regarding people and severance.
I know a back office guy 40+,1 year severance. He is taking the whole year off, not even looking until the severance runs out,and has no idea what he will do.
Shocking to me,and I believe the person to be foolish, but whatever!!
Lets talk about cost. Experiened Teachers in good school districts make around 90K. But they need a masters degree at top of their class and 10 years plus experience to make 90K. And they work in towns where capes cost 500K. Sometimes it is what it is, you gotta pay up.
3b says:
February 13, 2009 at 12:56 pm
#207 John: not discussing yoru kids in public school.
I am talking about your comment on the education cost, ah never mind, why bother. It is like talking to a wall.
202 SG says:
February 13, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Signs of the Times: bad economy good for noodles
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Loved this one – these ladies lives must be so difficult now…
A support group called Dating A Banker Anonymous has been formed for girlfriends and wives of U.S. investment bankers, who are missing out on luxury trips, gifts and pricey dinners as their partners lose money and jobs. “If your monthly Bergdorf’s allowance has been halved and bottle service has all but disappeared from your life,” says the group’s website, //dabagirls.wordpress.com/, “lighten your heart with laughter and email your stories to dabagirls.”
Ben as if anything learned in school is of much value anyhow?
Ben says:
February 13, 2009 at 12:59 pm
“I have two kids in public school and they love it. ”
John, of course they love it. They don’t have to learn anything and they get good grades for not doing any work. Then they come to me their freshman year of college and ask me why they are failing.
#217 Ben:Then they come to me their freshman year of college and ask me why they are failing
And many of these are from the blue ribbon schools.
“Fair Value for S&P = 440”
he,
I’m confused. John states that stocks are cheap, based on forward earnings. Send the memo to Barry.
Maybe forward earnings is not the right term anymore, forward writedowns is more like it.
#225 John: I learned more in Catholic grammar/high schools with some of the nuns and brothers who were psycho and 35 or more kids in a class, than many students are learning in these so called excellent public schools.
And of course these schools cannot have more than 20 kids in a class or the kids educational future will be destroyed.
Qwerty you make no sense.
Housing is a basic need like food. It’s not stocks or cars.
Home owning is having stakes in a community. Caring about neighbors and your area because your welfare is based on their welfsre. This difference reflects on the fact that housing does not appreciate more than inflation in the long run. Ie there is no money to be made but safety.
Treating housing as stocks then you should rent because you need to move as soon as the market dictates so. You call this a living? This is what brought us here in the first place: people like you who think that profit is the only thing in life.
Ben,
Are you in the Bio field or Neuro-Bio field?
#224 No Hmaptons for them this summer either!!`
BC,
What forward earnings?
Stocks are cheap, think again…
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/s-first-quarter-ever-of-negative.html
#223 John:And they work in towns where capes cost 500K. Sometimes it is what it is, you gotta pay up.
They work in towns where capes used to cost 500k,
As far as your other rantings not true, at least not in premier Beregn Co towns.
And not talking about teachers salaries, but whatever
John is right, think happy thoughts and we will be out of this thing in no time.
“The current situation has nothing in common with the Great Depression,” says economist Steve Hanke of the Cato Institute and Johns Hopkins University. “The sooner they [in Washington] stop spinning the bad news story and say nothing, the sooner we’ll be more confident.”
Hanke is not alone in dismissing what appears to be a potent cocktail of misinformation and doom and gloom, wherein the current recession-now in its 13th month-is already considered worse than the 16-month ones of 1973-1975 and 1980-1982.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Why-This-Recession-Seems-cnbc-14354968.html
comrade nom deplume says:
February 13, 2009 at 12:32 pm
[142] RayC.
Or me. I am only about a mile from there.
Time to warn the women and neighbors to be careful of unfamiliar faces.
Comrade,
It took several months after moving from NYC to stop looking out my little front door window when taking out the garbage late at night, checking for bad guys. I had moved on to checking for wild animals, and now I am back to bad guys.
RayC
John is right, think happy thoughts and we will be out of this thing in no time.
“The current situation has nothing in common with the Great Depression,” says economist Steve Hanke of the Cato Institute and Johns Hopkins University. “The sooner they [in Washington] stop spinning the bad news story and say nothing, the sooner we’ll be more confident.”
Hanke is not alone in dismissing what appears to be a potent c0cktail of misinformation and doom and gloom, wherein the current recession-now in its 13th month-is already considered worse than the 16-month ones of 1973-1975 and 1980-1982.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Why-This-Recession-Seems-cnbc-14354968.html
125 Ben – “But unfortunately, there is little harm is someone selling you an overpriced can of pepsi. A realtor is selling something that can put someone in debt the better half of their life.”
Therefore a buyer has no responsibility for due diligence or even common sense? realtors are neither financial advisors nor economists. Anyone who buys a house because someone tells them to deserves what they get. and anyone who believed that housing prices would continue to rise 5-10% a year forever, even when they were rising that much and it looked like they might rise forever, well, they kind of deserve what they get too. realtors are only one piece of the problem, maybe the most annoying, but possibly not the most culpable–I’d put more blame on lax lending standards, the mbs market and greedy buyers. Unfortunately, if it sounds too good to be true, millions of people will buy into it.
“I also don’t know anyone who is truly can’t find a job.”
John,
Not to worry, only approx 10M.
“Caring about neighbors and your area because your welfare is based on their welfsre.”
Maple,
Fcuk the neighbors. You’ll soon be paying for their loan modifications. If it’s easier, just drop off some cash.
RE: 238
“Unfortunately, if it sounds too good to be true, millions of people will buy into it.”
I sometimes wonder how much money is made from those too good to be true infomercials or at least what the sales volume per annum is.
Internet Millioniare…the one with all the big chested girls interviewing fat, balding, filthy stankin rich internet millionaires is my favorite. Closely followed by the day-trading senior citizen spot, hauling in 25K per round trip “while wearing pijamas”.
“BC,
What forward earnings?”
he,
Exactly, that’s what’s confusing me.
John?
Maple = pinata
I do think we are a little hard on the public schools. I think the issue is they all pretend to be “Blue Ribbon” etc. but really there is a big distinction. Additionally catholic and private schools can do it better because they have a few advantages. They don’t have to take everyone, in the case of a catholic school or any catholic school I have been to lay people teach but the schools are entirely administered by people who receive 0 pay. If you removed the massive fake administration cost from public school it would be cheaper for the tax payers and arguably work better.
As xenophobic as John sounds he is somewhat correct about foreign school systems. They do not foster creativity, nor innovative thinking, they create math machines, and are very unpleasant for children. Additionally I have met many engineers, and while a lot of engineers from Asia are very good, the striking thing is many more of them are terrible, where as Americans who are engineers tend not to vary as much some are great other alright but never truly bad. I think it is more cultural than any educational failure, i don’t think our system is broken beyond repair, but it could use some tweaking.
Is there a fundamental difference between Plainfield and Westfield? aside from trader joe’s that is.
Bob
my thoughts exactly. this society is up for grabs.
Maple = pinata = troll
sl
I do care about my neighbors, the guy next to me is a subprime sludgepot, as soon as he goes under going to buy that house and knock it down except for his pool and garage and take down fence and extend my yard. I will invite him over for a BBQ once in a while so he can feel the love.
jcer:
you have no idea what you are talking about. Americans stand no chance to the educational level of asians and europeans. A proof is your fool’s arrogance. No wonder americans lost 20% of their value, their standard of living is getting closer to a third world country. Have you read: IBM now gives the option to laid off americans to get a job in india with an indian salary.
If terrible foreign engineers can do this, maybe we need more of them.
Immigrants launched over half of Silicon Valley startups
More than half of Silicon Valley’s start ups of the last decade were founded by at least one immigrant, according to Benjamin Pimentel, a staff writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Citing a Duke University study, the article says that nationwide, about one-fourth of start ups have immigrant founders.
http://redcouch.typepad.com/weblog/2007/01/immigrants_laun.html
John: I am sure all your neighbors feel this way. this must be a great neighborhood. where is it?
“The current situation has nothing in common with the Great Depression,”
vic [237],
I agree, the mess the masters got us into is much worse.
“Additionally I have met many engineers, and while a lot of engineers from Asia are very good, the striking thing is many more of them are terrible, where as Americans who are engineers tend not to vary as much some are great other alright but never truly bad”
– I completely agree with this statement. The engineers from the top schools in third world countries are much better than the ones in the US. But an average engineering school in India/China cannot compete with an average school in the US.
Here’s the article. Maybe you can make a profit in housing there. I heard there are some poor people who can’t afford their hut so you can make a profit.
http://www.businessinsider.com/2009/2/ibm-to-north-american-employees-to-keep-your-job-move-to-india-ibm
BC (256) –
“Hope” is now officially the strategy everywhere. Truly amazing.
Victorian: an average us engineering school cannot even compare with the average chinese/indian one. A bsc graduate is an msc here. You see education starts from the elementary school.
Maybe I can help settle the Hamptons rental situation.
My sister is in RE out there and her boyfriend in marine construction – it’s DEAD!!
The realtor interviewed in the Newsday article is a schmuck.
grim (92)-
Looks like the secretariat will pit citizen vs citizen in order to prop ub MBS values and save the banks.
MW(260) –
I have studied in both the systems and the education over here leads to more critical thinking and analysis than over there (Talking about average schools).
Ever wonder why aren’t major discoveries made in the Asian countries? Two major factors –
1. Very few Research driven programs.
2. Totally unsupportive government bureaucracy (more so in India than China)
A lot of blame is placed on the government on this blog, but all fundamental research in universities is funded by the government which leads to tangible products being developed by the private industry.
“The realtor interviewed in the Newsday article is a schmuck.”
SS,
Is their contagion? Does that mean the poster, John, is also a schmuck?
ruggles says:
February 13, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Is there a fundamental difference between Plainfield and Westfield? aside from trader joe’s that is.
Look at ethnicity distribution.
P.S. Call me racist of you want but IN NJ when you pay for premium towns – you do not pay for location, You do not pay for land.
You pay for your neighbors.
Funny enough – neighbors change !!! So do neighborhoods. But nobody ever thinks about it.
Victorian:
I wasn’t talking about research and anyway that was a case some years ago. Innovation is slowly being pushed to those countries. As far as basic knowledge goes the difference is night and day. Since you studied there you know.
Have you ever been to asia? As part of a project I was doing back in 2005 I visited at least 20 japanese companies, I say they are ten years behind the times. Then I visited some chinese and korean compnanies and they are 20 years behind the times. JC, OMG I could throw out a 5 year old business idea and it was like I invented the light bulb. I mean it was like they were playing checkers and I was playing chess. I am not the brightest star in the sky but next to them I was a supernova.
maplewoodian says:
February 13, 2009 at 1:33 pm
jcer:
you have no idea what you are talking about. Americans stand no chance to the educational level of asians and europeans. A proof is your fool’s arrogance. No wonder americans lost 20% of their value, their standard of living is getting closer to a third world country. Have you read: IBM now gives the option to laid off americans to get a job in india with an indian salary.
A very dedicated group of real estate terrorists now rule this market. Their goal is to pay next to damn nothing for my house. I’m not about to let them get away with that. Never.
RE101,
I think you’ve got it all wrong. We are real estate freedom fighters. Fighting to show that you should not buy real estate and condemn yourself as an eternal debt slave.
#241 victorian:So we just need to think happy thoughs and all will be well.
Who needs critical thinking, it is so overrated.
So easy, so simple, I am going to start right now.
“As far as basic knowledge goes the difference is night and day”
– Completely disagree, Education is more than memorizing formulas and solving equations. Education is knowing how to resolve a real-life problem using those formulas/equations. In that respect, the average third world country education is far behind.
John: you are obviously from an average us school.
John (133)-
What’s the track record of WS CEOs the past 2-3 years?
I take this as a contraindicator.
“Because a CEO I can name told me in person last night. Same CEO was grim in October.”
John, you should listen to me more than any CEO. I interact with actual people, and I was happy (oh, so happy) in October.
You should know that anybody can blow sunshine up your ass. And the typical American CEO can do it better than anyone.
Whoever mentioned here yesterday that poeple who perpetrate or abet giant financial crimes has a great point. We should be placing some of these CEOs in front of a firing squad. That’s clean things up real quick.
#262 clot: What impact do you as a Realtor believe this mtg subsidy for deadbeats will have on prices in our area?
Al
the source of the ethnicity distribution is up for debate. The factor that underlies the distribution is wealth. people want to live amongst a similar or higher economic class
…that people who perpetrate or abet giant financial crimes should be executed.
New handheld. Sorry.
Victorian: the ivy leaguers run the american political and financial show. B and O are from yale and harvard. How come they didn’t use their real-life problem solving skills?
3b (273)-
Will accelerate declines. Why would anybody buy a house, knowing that at least some of the neighbors are being subsidized?
#107,
But there’s a line on 5th Ave outside their store. NYC sales are still strong.
Frank,
Tell that to my friend at Saks who just recently canned 25% of her staff due to lack of business.
#268 real estate freedom fighters
We are the REFF!!!Can we have a military and political wing?
An Armalite rifle in one hand, and a ballot in the other?
Bob – Can’t answer that one. I don’t know john, but I enjoy his posts, so I wouldn’t refer to him as a schmuck. But I do know that realtor…..and she truly is one.
bi says:
February 13, 2009 at 10:32 am
Chinese stocks rose Friday, lifting the benchmark index to a five-and-a-half-month closing high, adding to the luster of Shanghai as the world’s best performing market this year.
I think this financial crisis will mark the passing of the mantle to the Chinese economy. I’m in Jim Rogers camp. I tried finding a job in HK, but didn’t find anything last year. Switched jobs and maybe will look again at the end of this year.
As an engineer i shall throw in my 2 cents:
I agree with the majority of Vic’s point. there is a cultural difference in that americans and europeans appear to generally be better free form problem solvers while asians tend to be better plug and chuggers.
The problem cropping up is two fold. First you need a certain amount of basic knowledge foundation to perform well and in order to recognize what you dont know. Secondly US schools appear to have shifted to more of an asian philosophy of having the right answer is all that matters not why. That thought process is critical and has been/is being lost in the US education system.
I have seen this first hand with my niece. She wants to know the “why” of everything not just the answer, and is basically considered a nuisance by most of her teachers.
Quite frankly the distinction I was making was not race based but rather frame of mind. The best engineers in the world are in the US and Europe, many of them are ethnically or originally asian. That is neither here nor there and most received education in the US, Canada, or Europe, which in my mind represents the best higher education system in the world. I won’t disregard the work ethic, but the quality of the education is vastly different. While MIT, Berkeley, etc. vs. IIT offer a very similar education, at the lower level Rutgers looks like Harvard compared to most Indian and Chinese universities.
kettle1: I don’t know what kind of engineer you are. American industrial engineers can’t be that good if most of the stuff we use is designed and produced elsewhere. How come us cars are considered inferior from even kia and huyndai (according to consumer reports)
Kettle, your are entirely correct that at the elementary school level the concern is passing tests for no child left behind. It is a shame our public elementary school education is not more like higher ed. Yes understanding the solution is considered to be most important in US Higher ed. Fortunately many private schools still teach and value true education.
I would say Europe is like Freddie, Asia is like Thelma and the USA is like Shaggy/Scooby (kind of out of it, but actually the ones who always end up solving the crime). Daphne may be Australia– I still haven’t worked this part out yet in my mind.
jcer: the universities you mention only offer word class post graduate education and research. The undergraduate does not even start to compare to european/asian schools. That’s why the graduate students are mostly foreigners. Their undergraduates cannot make it into their graduate programs. Actually it is quite ridiculous. The undergraduates end up to become streeters or realtors (or presidents)
Actually, the year I graduated my HS it was number one in the HS rankings!!! I was at the bottom but hey we were number 1!
I like engineers, I sit in the front car of the train and he says hello to me everyday, you guys sure need a lot of schooling to push a stick back and forth.
maplewoodian says:
February 13, 2009 at 1:55 pm
John: you are obviously from an average us school.
How come us cars are considered inferior from even kia and huyndai (according to consumer reports)
You’re assuming their inferiority (real or imagined) has anything to do with the quality of the engineering. This is correlation not causation.
The Crypt Keeper released the Porkulus Bill in PDF format only, to make it hard to search. It is over 1000 Pages long with hand written notes all over the place. This is bad, there is no way anyone is going to be able to make heads or tails of this bill before the vote.
I am going to try and peruse it to see if we are giving away all of our rights.
* Text of the Conference Report-Division A
http://www.rules.house.gov/111/LegText/hr1_legtext_cr.pdf
* Text of the Conference Report-Division B
http://www.rules.house.gov/111/LegText/hr1_legtext_crb.pdf
* Joint Explanatory Statement – Division A
http://www.rules.house.gov/111/LegText/hr1_cr_jes.pdf
* Joint Explanatory Statement – Division B
http://www.rules.house.gov/111/LegText/hr1_cr_jesb.pdf
Maple, you really are quite inflammatory. American cars are crap we all know it and it has nothing to do with the engineers it has to do with GM, Ford, and Chrysler being messed up organizations. I consider the best machines in the world to be designed and built either in Germany, Italy, the UK, or the USA. Stuff is produced overseas for cost and only cost, if quality of manufacture was most important everything would be built in Germany as the build quality seems to be the most solid.
Kettle
“Are you in the Bio field or Neuro-Bio field?”
Chemistry
grim #290 in Mod.
“Therefore a buyer has no responsibility for due diligence or even common sense? realtors are neither financial advisors nor economists. Anyone who buys a house because someone tells them to deserves what they get. and anyone who believed that housing prices would continue to rise 5-10% a year forever, even when they were rising that much and it looked like they might rise forever, well, they kind of deserve what they get too. realtors are only one piece of the problem, maybe the most annoying, but possibly not the most culpable–I’d put more blame on lax lending standards, the mbs market and greedy buyers. Unfortunately, if it sounds too good to be true, millions of people will buy into it.”
Oh no, the buyer should have 100% responsibility. It’s just real annoying to see real estate agents trying to convince people to buy a home that’s going to bury their family.
If you are somehow trying to state that MIT, Cal Tech, Berkley, or Cornell undergrad is somehow an inferior education to anything, you are simply mad and most likely not worth arguing with. Now I am not saying other schools are not equally as good but these are some of the best undergrad programs in the world.
jcer:
As I said research is ok for the moment here in us. But having up and running an efficient industry is a result of mid level human capital. This is in much better shape abroad.
As I said the human capital in US is wasted in real estate and finance.
This is no correlation this explains the mess we are in and mot important the mess we will be for several more years while we see our standard of life getting lower and lower and foreign countries doing dominating us in so many different ways.
I like the my german cars. Lots of ash trays.
kettle1 writes — “Joe blow, buying a house for him and his family to live in for the next 30 years and who has no intention of attempting to make money off of the home is not an investor.”
We’ll have to agree to disagree on this.
A person’s motives or feelings when engaging in the largest investment of their lives doesn’t change the fact that their actions will impact their current and future net worth.
Similarly, 401k participants who say “I don’t care about investing, I’m just interested in retirement” are fooling themselves.
People who are spending 28% of their income on a property “just for shelter” are also fooling themselves.
vodka (282)-
I predict your niece will be classified within the next year and that the school will suggest she be medicated.
I’m now teaching my daughter how to write, as her HS Honors English teacher has no idea how to do so.
We now have a whole generation of the totally ignorant, passing on the ignorance to the current generation.
None of this is an accident. It is all by design. The gubmint and WS elite are conspiring to dumb down the population to the point at which we can all be trapped in our houses forever and be placated by occasional token handouts and sops.
John, the thing with German products is that the initial build quality tends to be excellent and the designs tend to be good, but they are very complicated and when small things break a lot of work needs to be done to fix them. In terms of performance they are top notch. Designed for a purpose not serviceability or cost to build.
3b 279
I am in the founding fathers camp regarding government. We do not want a democracy. A republic is a preferred solution.
That gets into some interest philosophical debate though.
#268 real estate freedom fighters
We are the REFF!!!Can we have a military and political wing?
An Armalite rifle in one hand, and a ballot in the other?
remember during the campaign when that lady said O-bama was going to pay her mortgage and we all thought it was ridiculous?
http://dealbreaker.com/2009/02/we-thought-it-was-absurd-too-b.php
Now italian cars, nice engineering, a lot of personality, and a quality of build somewhere between a yugo and a kia.
“I think this financial crisis will mark the passing of the mantle to the Chinese economy.”
AH,
I agree, Buy China, Brazil, Australia, Canada. Sell US and Europe.
I’d avoid the school that Maplewoody went to.
Some heavy brainwashing there.
Qwerty: you don’t get it. It’s not an emotional matter. Buying a house for profit ultimately lowers its value as it degrades the social frame around it.
My 304 was in reference to HP.
3b says:
February 13, 2009 at 1:59 pm
#268 real estate freedom fighters
We are the REFF!!!Can we have a military and political wing?
An Armalite rifle in one hand, and a ballot in the other?
Seems like we already have a military and political wing. That’s what is discussed all day here.
ben
you sound like someone i know in the Bio field at rutgers…. was just curious
maplewood:
Re cars and engineers. talk to some of the engineers. the bean counters run the US car companies. They have decided that out engineering their competitors is not cost effective. Heck we have the tech and have demonstrated the tech needed so that a car can drive itself for you.
Materials engineers can build lighter and stronger materials….
The bean counters dont like this stuff because it wont show quarterly results. real engineering would take years before you start making a real profit a off of it. Wall street wont stand for that…
complain to the bean counters if you dont like the engineering.
“kettle1: I don’t know what kind of engineer you are.”
Kettle’s an engineer? I thought he was an historian or economist?
Maplewoodian, still have not heard back, what are your thoughts on this 60 Minutes piece:
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4668112n
Maple is all over the place, first he was a finance guy saying the economy would improve and housing would not collapse. Now he is calling for the end of the American economy based on competition from Chinese and Indian engineers. We are but 5 minutes away from maple stating that migrant quants from Guatemala are in great demand. Seriously this troll is worse than bi, or re101, and maybe even frank. This guy isn’t even good a being a message board troll for cripes sake.
Clot,
I hate to brag, but she has asked me to help teach here sophmore level math when she is in 7th grade. She has also learned to keep a low profile after having been ridiculed for proving the teacher wrong.
She can already out think half the adults around her, not that that’s a challenge
kettle you are either a secret genius high school janitor or a chemical engineer.
“We are but 5 minutes away from maple stating that migrant quants from Guatemala are in great demand.”
jcer,
They are lined up, as we speak, at Frank’s office.
Qwerty: I don’t have the time to watch cbs tv why don’t you tell us what it says and what you think about it.
still catching up:
MAPLE –
Clot is a realtor. he knows his stuff. BC Bob, too. Those two, along with Grim, started talking about a crash in 2006 and that’s when i panicked and unloaded my flip (in another state).
the development (it was new) is in shambles now with foreclosures everywhere. i would have been F’d without them.
So why did i by last month? variety of reasons that aren’t worth getting into.
but our offer came in at 75k under asking (600) and we ended up paying 65k LOWER than what our neighbor paid for in 2006.
we are the new comp in the neighborhood, and we have the biggest yard (nearly an acre) plus an unfinished basement.
we wouldn’t have bought, though, if we didn’t have 6 months liquid cash in the bank. our plan is to up that to a year by the end of the summer.
If frank and woody join forces the nonsensical banter and blind insistence that hoboken and maplewood home values will not drop might make my head explode.
maplewoodian says:
February 13, 2009 at 2:09 pm
kettle1: I don’t know what kind of engineer you are. American industrial engineers can’t be that good if most of the stuff we use is designed and produced elsewhere. How come us cars are considered inferior from even kia and huyndai (according to consumer reports)
Very flawed ressoning:
1. Most of the staff we use is produces elsewhere because it is cheaper elsewehere and provide better profits for companies.
2. Smartest people in USA are not going into engeeneering field anymore due to job market, and lagging salary compare to top Lawyers, finance and medical professionals.
3. A lot of “staff” which you use was designed in USA by US engeeneers but produced in asia.
4. Chineese cars????? HUH never heard of one sold in USA. Does it mean that chineese cars are crap?? A lot fo US cars (GM is highest seller of cars in china) are sold in china. – hence by your reasoning US car engeeneers are betetr than chineese.
You know what is one of thereasons why nothing is produced in USA anymore?? – high cost of housing lead to high cost of everything and made US ecoonomy non-competitive in the world.
Cheaper housing would change it as everybody would need to make less money to liove. Most people main expense is housing.
Cut it by 90% and all of the sudden I need to make 1/2 of ehat i am making now.
Ny hair dresses don’t need to make as much so he charges me less. Farmer’s need to pay less for their kids housing in colledge – they make food cheaper.
So who is at fault?? REALTORS!!!
Do you like my logic?
BC,
i played an autodidact in my last life
Qwerty,
fair enough agree to disagree.
However i agree that 401K is indeed an investment.
cheers!
“She can already out think half the adults around her, not that that’s a challenge”
Yeah, warn your daughter. Some teachers embrace their smartest students. But some get seriously threatened by their intelligence and will do everything in their power to try to make them feel inferior. I normally see this happen in history classes.
I agree, Buy China, Brazil, Australia, Canada. Sell US and Europe.
BC Bob – Agree w/ most of that. I’m not sold on Canada, though I would be more predisposed to Mexico. They’ve got the right demographic.
I actually liked my fiat, it was light and easy to push.
Jcer,
whats wrong with being a janitor?
John, people love italian and british cars as they exude personality. It is the pieces that fall off that cause trouble for some.
RE: Housing “profit”
The thing is, one can also sustain substantial LOSSES when buying a home.
So we have an asset that can produce profits or losses. Those who treat such an entity as anything but an investment, ignoring market cycles, are bound to get burned.
[240] RayC
I moved from center city Phila. so I know how you felt. But as PA is a “shall” issue state, the hoods feared me, not the other way around. Once, after I “escorted” one local away from my neighbor’s car, he asked me “you still have that big gun?” Guess I was the neighborhood Harry Callahan and never knew it.
The wild animals in Phila. were a different story. Once had to chase a racoon out of my back patio with a 2×4 because the damn thing was too urban to be afraid of me until I approached it with a blunt object. Even then, it just sort of sauntered off.
I don’t fear for myself (hood trying to get thru door with me at home will find hisself breathing through a hole where his unibrow used to be) but I am not always home. That’s the fear.
I am an engineer and work with a few Asian engineers. Most prefer to work alone, crunching numbers, etc. and do not seem to share information as well as others. When it comes to submissions and report writing, mainly US engineers do that. Malcom Godwin (I think that is his name) wrote in the “Outliers” about how Asian kids learn math and why they are better at math than usa kids, but communication skills is another story.
[325] JCER
FIAT: “Fix it again, Tony”
RE: “I don’t have the time to watch cbs tv why don’t you tell us what it says and what you think about it.”
It says you’re screwed, and I think many are in denial about what is coming.
[323] John
True dat. And when you needed to, it was easy to lift over the embankment and roll into the gully below.
Or so I’ve heard.
New thread! Move it over!
#306 MW Buying a house for profit ultimately lowers its value as it degrades the social frame around it.
You definitely bought a house in the last few years. Only thing that can explain your tortured reasoning.
Diane: so americans are good in acting and selling not engineering. True actors and sales (mortgages and real estate) is something that american excel in.
By the way if you moved to china I bet you would lack the necessary social and communication skills.
268-
“I think you’ve got it all wrong. We are real estate freedom fighters. Fighting to show that you should not buy real estate and condemn yourself as an eternal debt slave.”
You’re no damn freedom fighter. You’re a damn deadender and the only price you like is free. Guess what terrorist? It ain’t gonna happen.
[3b] Your efforts in understanding the underlying motivation of what I say, rather than what I really say, shows your tortured reasoning.
Guess what? You don’t have any free hands when you have corn cobs in both of them.
279-
3b says:
February 13, 2009 at 1:59 pm
#268 real estate freedom fighters
We are the REFF!!!Can we have a military and political wing?
An Armalite rifle in one hand, and a ballot in the other?
Maplewoodian,
I’m a member of the IAIT (International Association of Internet Trollers). This body promulgates certain standards for blog trolling and I’m afraid I have to point out that you’re not meeting them. This can be overcome by joining our group for training. Membership dues are nominal at $ 4,000 per year, but I’m currently running a special where I can get you in at a 50% discount. We’d love to have you join. Just post your credit card number here and I’ll get you an application right away!
-312
“Seriously this troll is worse than bi, or re101, and maybe even frank. This guy isn’t even good a being a message board troll for cripes sake.”
#277 clot: Why would anybody buy a house, knowing that at least some of the neighbors are being subsidized?
Thanks. That is what I thought as well. Is it unreasonable to factor that fact into teh equation when determining what kind of bid to make on a house?
#337 reinvestor: You still have that fixation with that part of the body I see.
Do you use pine cones for the holiday, to keep it festive and all.
Please get help.
#336 MW: Please stop yourself.
You lost all credibility with your comment yesterday:
“wall street in particular will keep north Jersey housing prices high”.
You can never ever redeem yoruself after that moronic comment.
Go back to sleep grasshopper.
House Hunter says:
February 13, 2009 at 11:35 am
My husband gave me the following scenario.
if a person put $10,000 in the fidelity contra fund the day after the 87 crash (down 25% in a day) and held it for 20 years..they had 1 million.
HH: El problemo? Where was the bottom, and also, he would have put in Magellan, not Contrafund, so the retrospective approach fails to pass the reality test……I would stay far away from Fidelity in 2009.
reinvestor101 says:
February 13, 2009 at 8:26 am
Price discovery is just another damn term for ripping off people and not paying a fair price.
Let me tell you something, I’m not giving my house away for nothing. I’d rather run through hell in gasoline underdrawers than to sell my house to some damn vulture for less than its worth. Never.
….
Your house is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it. Period. Housing is going back to 1999 pricing levels which is more inline with P/E. So fill up your gas tank and get your underdrawers ready, whatever those are.
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