From the Home News Tribune:
Rutgers report warns of continuing job losses, recession into 2010
Job losses will continue to mire the economy in coming months and the recession may stretch into 2010, according to a report released by two Rutgers University economists.
The quarterly Sitar-Rutgers Regional Report says 1.9 million jobs were lost across the country in the last four months of 2008, the worst year for private-sector job losses since the United States began compiling such statistics in 1939.
“This reflects a serious economic meltdown,” Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy Dean James Hughes and Rutgers University Professor Joseph Seneca wrote. “And it appears that the worst is yet to come.”
…
“Consider (2002) the start of American’s great consumption bubble,” the report says. “We went on the greatest spending spree in the history of the planet. But that level of consumption is not sustainable. It was achieved only by spending every dollar of the paycheck, by depleting home equity, and overdosing on credit.”When the economy turns around, Hughes and Seneca expect the consumption rate to decline and the savings rate to rise.
But in New Jersey and across the United States, a shrinking job market through 2008 suggests that for the next year, at least, households will continue struggling to pay the bills — much less save money.
New Jersey lost 63,000 jobs between December 2007 and December 2008, according to preliminary employment numbers from the Department of Labor and Workforce Development. That’s the most significant decline in New Jersey since 1991, when 80,800 jobs were lost.
From the NY Times:
Decade at Bernie’s
By now everyone knows the sad tale of Bernard Madoff’s duped investors. They looked at their statements and thought they were rich. But then, one day, they discovered to their horror that their supposed wealth was a figment of someone else’s imagination.
Unfortunately, that’s a pretty good metaphor for what happened to America as a whole in the first decade of the 21st century.
Last week the Federal Reserve released the results of the latest Survey of Consumer Finances, a triennial report on the assets and liabilities of American households. The bottom line is that there has been basically no wealth creation at all since the turn of the millennium: the net worth of the average American household, adjusted for inflation, is lower now than it was in 2001.
At one level this should come as no surprise. For most of the last decade America was a nation of borrowers and spenders, not savers. The personal savings rate dropped from 9 percent in the 1980s to 5 percent in the 1990s, to just 0.6 percent from 2005 to 2007, and household debt grew much faster than personal income. Why should we have expected our net worth to go up?
Yet until very recently Americans believed they were getting richer, because they received statements saying that their houses and stock portfolios were appreciating in value faster than their debts were increasing. And if the belief of many Americans that they could count on capital gains forever sounds naïve, it’s worth remembering just how many influential voices — notably in right-leaning publications like The Wall Street Journal, Forbes and National Review — promoted that belief, and ridiculed those who worried about low savings and high levels of debt.
Then reality struck, and it turned out that the worriers had been right all along. The surge in asset values had been an illusion — but the surge in debt had been all too real.
Love that Seneca guy. NJ’s own Dr. Doom. No relation of course.
I used to drive around my brother’s neighborhood asking out loud “where are these people getting all this money for McMansions and hummers and $5000 Rainbow playsets?”. I was then ridiculed for always saving saving saving. “Live for today” I was told.
Anyway its a national holiday and the train to NY seems almost as full as normal. I guess everyone still has a job and there isn’t really any recession. The line at Chopt will no doubt be out the door by 12:15. Makes no difference to me as I brought my leftovers from last nights dinner. Thrifty b*stard I am.
#1 “For most of the last decade America was a nation of borrowers and spenders”
The Republican philosophy the past 8 years.
2010?
so, with in the next year, there will be a big spur in job creationm and things will pick up in 2010?
ha ha
man, a sucker is born every minute.
go back to eating your pancakes.
SAS
“Bedminster eyes employee salary freezes as one way to keep 2009 budget costs down”
http://tinyurl.com/d6aml4
sure is slow in there this morning.
that company that pays some of those pump & dump bloggers must give Pres day off.
SAS
chi-fi … re: your last post on the other thread …
interesting that you feel we have 20-30 months “left” of this disaster.
i’d say the fear-mongering is out in full force, from the pres to doom and gloom websites. obviously, there’s tons to be gloomy about, but …
the MSM is usually 6-12 months behind the national trends. when housing turned sour, it was awhile before they noticed. i almost wonder … with EVERYONE doom and gloom these days … what are the chances that the turn comes and we all miss it?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123457303244386495.html
UPenn PHD Philadelphia Housing Data
There’s some pretty good information but shows some inconsistency in his data. Particularly in the “fairly valued” charts. Most of the areas described as fairly valued are now experiencing turbulent price declines. But over all I think the greater message with these statistics are clear that Philly was late to enter the party (bubble) and will be last to leave. I feel the real numbers are yet to come.
http://www.goppelt.net/phpi/phpi4q08.pdf
Yikes,
Good question, but regardless of the MSM’s take, the underlying data that drives the various trends is easily available if one looks for it.
That underlying data, from historical trends to the financial health of the population point to us having noticeably further to fall before we stabilize.
In regards to housing, you dont hit bottom until you hear “sell now before its ti late”
We are still getting “bottom is here, great time to buy”
As doomy and gloomy as i may be, as soon as i think the underlying fundamentals begin to turn so will i.
SAS,
Was busy playing with Kettle Jr and digging through data… Will start pumping and dumping immediatly.
Just bought some GM and Citi stock. Great deal, Dollar cost average baby!!!!
Kettle,
“Just bought some GM and Citi stock. Great deal, Dollar cost average baby!!!!”
To quote Cramer “It’s a no brainer!”
The Omama administration this week will announce a “good, solid” plan with the goal of stemming mortgage foreclosures and putting a floor under falling real estate prices, a senior White House aide said on Sunday.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123471581432090221.html
Man, are these guys thick!
Morning all-
I’m down in south fla. & there’s plenty of RE up on the market- some %50 off peak… I would love to pick up a nice 1-2 br just to have or rent but I know better. Yikes(#7), I’m sort of feeling that way but my spidey sense tells me what kettle is saying(#9). As many for sale signs there are, there’s probably twice as many for rent.
(12) Living – Let’s hope this isn’t the plan they will unveil…
http://www.time.com/time/business
Cindy (14)-
If they do, it will be everyone to the mattresses.
It will be everyone to the mattresses, anyway.
(14) Cindy
They shouldn’t let 4th graders write for Time’s Business and Tech section, right?
“Just about everybody wins…” … except for the 32% of Americans who do NOT own a home. Oh, and last time I checked 50%+ of Black and Hispanics do not own homes so I am sure they will appreciate Mr. Officer’s suggested remedy as much as anyone.
I am thinking of buying soon…. – – 30% off my mortgage principle!!! – the same as getting house 30% off…
I can always just stop paying mortgage anyways, if no program like this one materialize.
It is not like we live in Dubai where they put you in prison for not paying debt..
We are in USA baby!!!! Just walk away!!!
(17) Seneca – An absolute joke. I had to post it …It was too “out there” to ignore. Could you even imagine the outrage.
“Just about everybody wins…” Yeah, right.
17 Seneca
if the %30 haircut showed up in the comps or the practice continued until everybody owned a home then a win win?
Do I actually need to start calling/emailing/faxing my local RE Agents letting them know that as a potential buyer, I will NEVER buy a home if mortgage writedowns are Obama’s solution? Let the NAR explain to our government geniuses why this would be BAD for RE.
Or do real estate agent’s actually think this is a good idea? 30% writedowns and then we get back to business as usual?
Can anyone “in charge” actually string together a full thought complete with consequences?
Disclaimer: I can’t but I am not “in charge”.
Al [18],
I agree, buy now at 20-30 % off peak prices, then next year 30% off your mortgage. Win, Win.
Do I actually need to start calling/emailing/faxing my local RE Agents letting them know that as a potential buyer, I will NEVER buy a home if mortgage writedowns are Obama’s solution? Let the NAR explain to our government geniuses why this would be BAD for RE.
Why would you never buy a house??
It will be 30% off!!!
Well, add met to the ranks os soon to be unemployed.
The grant that funds my position is ending and the institution I work at can’t afford to pick up the tab.
No more hob-nobbing with monied folks for me!
On the bright side, having been home with kids for years previously, I’ve managed to build up a bigger cushion in our bank account, made a bunch of good contacts, picked up some new skills and at least am eligible for unemployment (though I don’t really want to take money if I can find something).
Won’t have that horrendous commute any more either.
BC Bob says:
February 16, 2009 at 9:22 am
Al [18],
I agree, buy now at 20-30 % off peak prices, then next year 30% off your mortgage. Win, Win.
I am tempted… very tempted. Houses are a bit cheaper (I would not say 30% off peak, but good 10-15% off inbetter towns) In some not so “desirable” town’s there are houses which are listed at 40%-50% off what they have sold in 2005-2006.
But again in NJ you mortgage does not matter. It is all about taxes.
(20) crossroads
My degree of confidence that current owners or real estate agents will ensure that homes are “marked to market” based on the mortgage writedown enacted = 0%
… they won’t even let us know what address a property is located at, you think they are gonna tell me it sold for $500k in 2006 and has since taken a 30% mortgage writedown? There are some nice bridges for sale in Brooklyn.
Secondary
One point that seems to be constantly forgotten is the current bubble in relation to the 90’s.
Look back at the data for the 90’s bubble and look at the real world effects. Now consider that this bubble is orders of magnitude larger and was driven by exotic financing and aggressive debt expansion.
The “Fair Value” charts on pages 28 and 30 of your link are a joke.
lets take NJ as an example
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SZl2zwpxV5I/AAAAAAAAA_Q/habed1xHagE/s400/NJ+INcome+and+hoe+price.PNG
The median income is set to drop noticeably due to the exodus of finance and Pharma industries which are the traditional high salary industries int he state. On Top of that there is the crushing tax burden which set to get worse as well.
I would love to see the methodology behind that “fair value” data. Its Bunk.
If people can barely maintain their current spending habits and we are already see a wave of forclosure, then the market has spoken.
Cooper 13,
Take a look see…
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SZZ3DDaNUvI/AAAAAAAAA9g/J-3RXlUBqbg/s1600-h/Miam.PNG
Miami Case-Shiller data. That region of Florida is only half way through the reversion to mean. And remember that a reversion to mean will usually overshoot. The higher the high, the lower the low.
cooper 13
Tampa data
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SZZ3tNaHxXI/AAAAAAAAA-w/-LOLJpKs3Uc/s1600-h/Tamp.PNG
(24) Lisoosh – Sorry to hear the news but it sounds like you have a good plan in place. A neighboring district is laying off 1/3 of their teachers. (Will increase class size.) My district used their cushion to fill the gap this year. Next year? Who knows.
In general current economic situation is not about house prices anymore. It is about JOBS.
Once we see that unemployment levels are not growing anymore – we will see beginning of recovery.
It might be so called “jobless recovery” – thats what I am expecting anyways.
Lissosh:
:(
24 Lisoosh
Sorry to hear it. Hopefully something else will pop up quickly.
Seneca (21)-
To your first question: no, no Realtor or member of NAR ever met a bailout they didn’t like. I’m constantly bombarded with e-mails, begging me to contact my Congressman about some handout initiative or another.
Second, to your question: “can anyone “in charge” actually string together a full thought complete with consequences?”
We already know the answer to that one.
Got ammo?
Cindy – Don’t know about a plan, BUT I am used to being home, so I have local friends and a routine I can pick up to some extent. The time I spent in the non-profit world also showed me how powerful the networking potential really is, and they are crying out for lay people who can actually do something.
Volunteering will at least keep me involved, active and in front of the right people. A large number of the people I work with right now never applied to posted jobs – they were involved somehow and were offered their jobs exclusively.
Worst case scenario it will keep me sane.
ket- A much needed whack in the head. sometimes it’s tough keeping everything perspective. Those graphs are quite sobering to say the least, thx to you and ket jr I’ll be staying with friends & family for a few more months/years.
Anectdote for the day:
Went for a jog over the weekend. There are now 4 foreclosed and empty homes right around mine. I found a 5th as well. as i ran by, the sherrif was at the housing and appeared to be kicking the people out. This morning the door had a big yellow notice on it. The house had been for sale for months….
I live in a “middle” middle class, working class neighborhood if you will. This group seems to be taking a substantial hit.
Funny:
Fed Chief’s Boyhood Home Is Sold After Foreclosure
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123454070638883495.html
DILLON, S.C. — Travis Jackson walks through his modest ranch house, admiring the kitchen’s built-in spice rack and the red-oak floors. He draws back the curtains, and sunlight illuminates the pride on his face.
The young banker just bought Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s childhood home at a foreclosure sale.
Kettle 37 Rby area right?
#4 sas: Forget about 2010. Larry Kudlow and our own John, says all will be well by Memorial Day, 2009.
1 of the houses that is emptry near me has been boarded up. Looks like the bak may have “winterized” the house.
Just makes it look even more abandoned.
Cooper:
With the level of Re expansion we have seen and the subsequent crash we are experiencing we are going to see entire neighborhoods deserted in the more bubbly and unemployed areas before this is over.
% home owner ship was spiked upwards during the bubble. what do we now do with the excess inventory. And hey builders are still building!!!!
% home ownership
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SWGgaDTnfxI/AAAAAAAAA4k/LdWBYTGvnWE/s1600-h/US+Home+Ownership+Rates.PNG
23 Al
How is this not different from me walking into a fancy restaurant, ordering caviar, fois gras terrine, kobe steak, seafood extravaganza etc.. etc.. then when the bill comes calling Uncle Sam to say “But I can’t afford it!”
Then have Uncle Sam (or the courts) tell the restaurant owner that he has to knock 40% off the bill so I can pay it???
How does this differ from a cram down?
sl
(34) clot “got ammo”
True story. Back in 2001 I was told to try yoga to try to control my breathing and relax. It didn’t work for me so I tried target shooting instead. Worked like a charm. I met the most interesting cross-section of America every weekend when I was at the range. Every race/color/creed/religion. Loved it. Gave it up when I moved back to New Jersey.
I have owned a 9mm since then but always purchased my ammo at the range because I know that I am much more likely to be killed BY a loaded weapon I have at home than by an empty clip.
The way things are going, I think it might be time to keep a 50 round box somewhere just in case.
I know there was some discussion a while back on ranges and shops that were reliable. I need a place in Union/Essex/Middlesex County that can do a cleaning and maybe give me a refresher course. Suggestions?
Easton Hospital, PA, charges $15K for a Colonoscopy if you’re working and have Insurance, $ Zero, if your Illegal, or have no Insurance. They are sort of like the Government. Problem is, like Social Security, there are too few people working to support the worlds Illegals, especially with the Governments 2004 High Deductible Medical Plans, which only apply to the Private Sector.
#21 seneca: I have been screaming here for the last few months about these mtg write downs, and judges being permitted to modify mtgs in bankruptcy.
Why would anyone wnat to buy a house if the clown next door gets 30% or more knocked off his mtg, on the same type of house that you are buying.
How can a seller/realtor accurately determine a true market value, if one has to contend with this kind of manipulation?
Current homeowners should be outraged, and prospective buyers must consider these mtg writedowns when formulating a bid, and bid accortdingly.
Mike,
rockaway/randolp area.
I plan to start look for a new rental in the spring. I dont really want to hang around the immediate area as i suspect that the growing number of empty homes is just asking for trouble.
OT (but could use the help…)
What’s the best way to go about researching and buying a new Nissan Pathfinder?
I’m not crazy about buying it new (vs used) but I keep my cars for 10 yrs. (It’s actually his truck we are replacing… his is over 10yrs now and we have to get a more reliable one…)
Thanks in advance….
sl
(37) Kettle – That sounds like my neighborhood about six months ago. All sold once reduced. No new foreclosures (that I know about) since.
Seneca says:
February 16, 2009 at 9:21 am
Do I actually need to start calling/emailing/faxing my local RE Agents letting them know that as a potential buyer, I will NEVER buy a home if mortgage writedowns are Obama’s solution? Let the NAR explain to our government geniuses why this would be BAD for RE.
Just one guy’s opinion … depends where you want to buy. Depends on that community’s foreclosure situation. depends on new construction currently going up or in the works.
I can really speak to my tiny corer of Bucks County PA. there’s some low-end townhouses for sale in the 175-325 range.
in talking with three different realtors prior to buying, and doing extensive research, there aren’t many foreclosures happening in the 400-750k range of our tiny neck of the woods. of course, that doesn’t mean people won’t lose their jobs en masse in the next few years and mess everything up.
my only worthless advice to prospective buyers is to pay more attention to the specific communities you want to target, and less to the national numbers/regional numbers.
as for NJ … the tax #’s are what scared us across the border to PA.
vodka (46)-
The vacant home thing is starting several nasty spin-off syndromes of its own.
The downward momentum is gaining speed.
Yikes,
Do you know about the school systems in Bucks?
SAS et al
1 portion of my weekend entertainment…. enjoy and ignore the typos, still have to proofread it, its a work in progress
http://maldream.blogspot.com/2009/02/abandon-hope-all-ye-who-enter-here.html
Give me link at 52
(abandon hope all ye who enter here)
a minute to load, it has a PDF embedded in it.
extra credit to whoever can name the author that penned the name of my post
and no using google
“sure is slow in there this morning.
that company that pays some of those pump & dump bloggers must give Pres day off.”
you talking about John?
HC
lisoosh,
Sorry… :(
It does sound like you have solid financial footing. I hope things open up for you soon.
As far as unemployment. Remember – YOU pay into this with EVERY paycheck…YOU pay towards this insurance and should not hesitate to collect when you become unemployed.
If we ever have a GTG, remind me to tell you the story….in short, me living in an almost completely unfurnished apt [after tossing out the asshole I was with] with $680 in rent due and $648 in the bank…. :)
sl
#49 yikes: Thee may be little to no forclosures in your area right now, but that has nothing to do with the mtg write down scenario.
The whole point of the writedowns according to those who support it, is to stop foreclosures before they happen.
So your neighbor could claim fiancial hardship and get 30% knocked off his mtg.
Plus ther
Ireland ‘could default on debt’
Fears are mounting that Ireland could default on its soaring national debt pile, amid continuing worries about its troubled banking sector. The cost of buying insurance against Irish government bonds rose to record highs on Friday, having almost tripled in a week. Debt-market investors now rank Ireland as the most troubled economy in Europe. Simon Johnson, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, called for this weekend’s meeting of G7 finance ministers to put Ireland’s troubles at the top of the agenda.
Johnson said: “Don’t, please, tell me more about the basic principles of financial reform unless and until you have addressed the Irish problem. And don’t tell me the Irish have to sort this out for themselves. Eventually, the world always comes to help; check your notes on Iceland. “It’s much better and much cheaper to come in early and decisively. We need a plan of action for Ireland, and we need it now.” Pledges made by Ireland to support its banking sector amount to 220% of the country’s annual economic output. The total loans held in Irish banks are more than 11 times the size of the economy.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5733723.ece
yikes the Jersey Jerkoff,
I looked the numbers and in Jan 2009 in Hoboken, condos sold for the highest average price ever. The numbers are telling me that although condos are extremely overpriced, people are keep buying them, unlike in Miami or Las Vegas where prices dropped 75%. So before you start calling people names, stick your head out of this blog and a dose of reality.
lisoosh- sorry to hear the news. Its one thing when you voluntary quit a job or decide to be a stay at home mom, but it’s always annoying being told to do or not do something!
But as you pointed out: your household has managed on 1 salary recently – so hopefully not too much financial difficulty. Looks like you made the best of the job while it lasted both financially and professionally. Wish you the best of luck in finding the next opportunity.
“What if” question for the group: What if the market was allowed to work and banks and businesses failed in Darwinian fashion. Equity and bondholders just had to deal with the losses, the FDIC made bank account holders completely whole and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp took over the pension funds up to the max of about $60K per year per retiree. Do you think that would be more or less money than we are currently throwing into the wind? What would the unintended consequences be? Just wondering.
LOL, i didnt know Obama was a comedian!
Obama to Shift Focus to Budget Deficit
With a $787 billion stimulus package in hand, President Barack Obama will pivot quickly to address a budget deficit that could now approach $2 trillion this year. He has scheduled a “fiscal-responsibility summit” on Feb…..
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123457407865686565.html
Thanks guys.
sl – Sounds like a good story. I’ll trade with when I was living in a foreign country, no work, had just enough to cover a shared room in a dorm, a pot of humus and a loaf of bread for the week. Lost a shoe in the ocean and had to get an old pair from a friend because I couldn’t afford to buy a pair. Walked everywhere because I couldn’t afford even bus fare.
Sure was skinny then.
renter says:
February 16, 2009 at 10:06 am
Yikes,
Do you know about the school systems in Bucks?
yes. it’s about as “blue ribbon” as NJ.
http://www.phillymag.com/articles/the_top_50_school_districts_2008/
Outofstater says:
February 16, 2009 at 10:26 am
“What if” question for the group: What if the market was allowed to work and banks and businesses failed in Darwinian fashion. Equity and bondholders just had to deal with the losses, the FDIC made bank account holders completely whole and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp took over the pension funds up to the max of about $60K per year per retiree. Do you think that would be more or less money than we are currently throwing into the wind? What would the unintended consequences be? Just wondering.
The scenario you are describing would be a lot more efficient and chaper than current bail-outs.
However, under your scenarion “Retired” CEOs would lose their million dollars/year pensions, hence it will never happen.
IF copmpany fails rich have a lot mroe money to lose than poor folks who do not have a lot of stock/benefits anyways.
Politicians are supported by corporations (CEO’s) and rich – really rich people. So they protect interests of people (powers) who pays them.
#65 yes. it’s about as “blue ribbon” as NJ.
Which is not saying much.
exactly. half the taxes, though.
just found out our next door neighbor commutes daily to NYC. haven’t talked to him yet, but his wife said it is ‘about’ 2 hrs each way.
will get more details for the peanut gallery.
personally, i dont think that job is worth the commute unless the salary is like 200k
Out of stater 62
something like this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873
9 years of depression is better then 20+ years depression followed by a long slow slog back out.
Then again WWII was just the ticket for pulling the US out of the tail end of the 30’s depression
Outofstater: A lot of fiscally conservative and financially responsible people moved their assets into retirement friendly vehicles. You know, like corporate bonds from GM, Ford, Citibank… I guess some retirees who saved on their own, allocated assets to lower risk investments, and just want to live their golden years in relative peace will see 20-40% of their assets wiped out when companies declare bankruptcy? These folks likely have their mortgages paid off but with such a large loss in (dividend-paying) assets, they might not be able to swing property taxes anymore? More homes will need to be sold?
Outsater
a better description of 1873
http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/14/learning-lessons-from-the-panic-of-1873/
uh-oh
Asia’s export economies in free fall
Staggering falls in exports across Asia have shocked economic analysts and ended all claims that the global slump may be nearing its bottom. The IMF’s growth forecast for Asia this year is just 2.7 percent—less than a third of the 9 percent growth rate of 2007. The prediction is a full percentage point less than during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2009/feb2009/asia-f14.shtml
3b (58)-
I feel a personal financial hardship coming on. It’s manifesting itself in a lessened desire to pay my mortgage. :)
Are there any little blue pills for that?
vodka (59)-
I actually read something on another site a few days ago that said Irish CDS spreads really aren’t so bad, since they aren’t asking for points paid upfront (a la Russia).
I tend to think the CDS issuers still can’t price risk.
yikes says:
February 16, 2009 at 8:06 am
chi-fi … re: your last post on the other thread … interesting that you feel we have 20-30 months “left” of this disaster.
NYC-NJ-centric opinion…
with EVERYONE doom and gloom these days … what are the chances that the turn comes and we all miss it?
WHAT IS YOUR DEFINITION OF MISSING THE TURN?
Yes i know the last link was to WSWS…. but hey RE101 should love that!!!!!
yikes (68)-
Your neighbor is just a 21st-century version of a slave.
(68)-
Doing stuff like that is evidence of a large personal problem.
Chi (75)-
No turn will occur until there is at least one event (a la Kent State) that features the US military firing into a crowd and killing people.
Grim – thank you for your comments yesterday espousing the benefits of sharing real estate data.
I just sent you S&P/Case-Shiller condo data in Excel format. The Excel file includes a handy chart.
The data show that condo prices in the New York area have outperformed the other 4 condo markets tracked by S&P/Case-Shiller over every time period.
Can anybody suggest a simple way to take a chart in Excel and post it to a blog?
Shutting down the Casino and closing the “London Loophole”.
On February 12, the House Agriculture Committee passed H.R. 977, the Derivatives Markets Transparency and Accountability Act of 2009, by voice vote.
Barney Frank is reportedly is disappointed that the House Agriculture Committee has approved a version of a derivative oversight bill without his committee’s input. The bill, introduced by Rep. Collin Peterson, would limit naked Credit Default Swaps and give the CFTC oversight.
It is important that this Bill passes, we need to stop the casino mentality that has damaged the worldwide economy ASAP.
Please write your Representatives in Congress.
https://writerep.house.gov/writerep/welcome.shtml
Lurked,
i assume you want to post it here. if thats the case
2 ways:
Copy and past the chart into MS Paint or similar. Save as a PNG and upload ImageHost (goiogle it) or similar. Take the link to the image and paste in the blog where you want to share the data.
Save your spreadsheet as a Google Dcoumets Spreadsheet (google for google documents, you can upload spreadsheets). Once you have the document in google click on the “share” button towards the upper right hand side of the screen. A link will be generated that will take people to the spreadsheet.
Lurk
it might also be easier to upload it to Scribd and then post the link here
65–
Thank you.
Facing eviction, a man killed himself while a deputy stood at door
http://www.gazette.com/articles/anderson_48080___article.html/home_mortgage.html
as MM predicted, a huge riot is happening in china. people are grabbing what left in crash and fire: chinese stock added 3% more today and makes it over 30% gain year-to-day.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS#chart3:symbol=000001.ss;range=ytd;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
BI
are you suggesting i bulk up on my FXP holdings?
http://g.imagehost.org/dl/6a56461a9f061badb73f14206e24dc74/0305/Condo_prices.xls
Lots of condo data inside the link above.
Hat tip to kettle1 for pointing me to imagehost.
Clot,
You’ll love this!!!! A Monograph by the U.S. Army War College
not light reading but you might find it interesting, including pg 31
http://www.policypointers.org/Page/View/8519
the government will have to disclose the homes that have a 30% write down on mrtg…its part of this new transparent age! if the govt doesnt do this, i am sure folks on this blog can figure out a way to extract the data somehow….otherwise they certainly will be mutiny!
this has to be factored into the bid for us buyers out there….i can see this as a good thing for this pricing correction to take place…it probably will accelerate the whole downward spiral…
Lurked,
yor image host account already got fried… try scribed.
Clot,
An excert:
The military must be prepared, the document warned, for a “violent, strategic dislocation inside the United States,” which could be provoked by “unforeseen economic collapse…..
“Under the most extreme circumstances, this might include use of military force against hostile groups inside the United States. Further, DoD [the Department of Defense] would be, by necessity, an essential enabling hub for the continuity of political authority in a multi-state or nationwide civil conflict or disturbance,”
(92) CAIBC
If I had a nickel for every time a Realtor told me that a lower-priced home wasn’t a reasonable comp because it was a foreclosure, or it was an intra-family sale, or the seller brought a check to the table, I’d have at least 55 cents.
… mind you, when prices were hitting the peak, these same Realtors never mentioned that the sale price included a 52″ LCD, or granite installed in the kitchen prior to closing…. or a car!
#70 Seneca said :
I guess some retirees who saved on their own, allocated assets to lower risk investments, and just want to live their golden years in relative peace will see 20-40% of their assets wiped out when companies declare bankruptcy? These folks likely have their mortgages paid off but with such a large loss in (dividend-paying) assets, they might not be able to swing property taxes anymore? More homes will need to be sold?
This is what I think happen to a house that was recently for rent in the Far Hills/Gladstone area asking $4500 for 10 acre/8br estate. Tax records showed no mortage owned by same owner 20+ yrs buit 35K+ a yr taxes.
News from abroad:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4623525/Failure-to-save-East-Europe-will-lead-to-worldwide-meltdown.html
(cheers!)
Click where it says download to get the Excel file with condo price data. The version you see initially has messed up formatting.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/12461181/Condo-Prices
Thanks for the tech tips, kettle1.
lurk
my pleasure
I can’t see how they can write down some loans. If the cost of a writedown on a 30 year note is a couple of years of poor credit than it seems like a no-brainer.
Someone will point this out to the masses.
The Obama Stimulus: Truth and Consequences
Before he passed away, my father, J. Irving Weiss, who started his career on Wall Street as a stock analyst in 1929, explained it this way:
“In the 1930s, I was tracking the facts and the numbers as they were being released — to figure out what might happen next. That was my job. So I remember the numbers well.
“Years later, economists like Milton Friedman and my young friend Alan Greenspan looked back at those days to decipher what went wrong. They concluded that it was mostly the government’s fault, especially the Federal Reserve’s. They developed the theory that the next time we’re on the brink of a depression, the government can nip it in the bud simply by acting sooner and more aggressively.
“Bah! Those guys weren’t there back then. When I first went to Wall Street, Friedman was in junior high and Greenspan was in diapers.
“I saw exactly what the Fed was doing in the 1930s: They did everything in their power to try to stop the panic. They coddled the banks. They pumped in billions of dollars. But it was no use. They eventually figured out they were just throwing good money after bad.
“You didn’t have to be an economist to understand what the real problem was. It was sinking public confidence, and money didn’t buy confidence. To restore confidence would take more than just money. It would also take time.
“The true roots of the 1930s bust were in the 1920s boom — the Roaring Twenties. That’s when the Fed gave cheap money to the banks like there was no tomorrow. That’s why the banks loaned the money to the brokers, the brokers loaned it to speculators, and the speculation created the stock market bubble. That was the real cause of the crash and the Depression! Not the government’s ‘inaction’ in the 1930s!
“By 1929, our economy was a house of cards. It didn’t matter which cards the government propped up or which ones we let fall. We obviously couldn’t save them all. So no matter what we did, it was going to come down anyway. The longer we denied that reality and tried to fight it, the worse it was for everyone. The sooner we accepted it, the sooner we could get started on a real recovery.”
Today, however, it seems governments of the world have yet to learn this lesson. They’re still trying to bail out nearly every major institution and market on the planet.
Will they succeed?
The quick answer is: For a while, perhaps. They can kick the can down the road. They can buy time and postpone the day of reckoning. They can stimulate stock market rallies and even flurries of economic recovery. But that’s not the same as assuming responsibility for our future. It doesn’t resolve the next crisis and the one after that. It does little for you and me, and even less for our children or theirs.
The longer term answer is: No, they will fail. Ultimately, the market will prevail.
nice work lurked. no bubble here
zieba [97],
It’s the new bull market, the crack up boom. SWHTF soon.
It can’t happen here. Again. Looked at a REO last week in Brigadoon. Today saw a listing at $599, clicked on the link and it took me to Century 21’s REO page, which included the listing of this very nice 3 bd 3 bth in a nice section of Westfield.
It CAN’T happen here.
#80 lurked:The data show that condo prices in the New York area have outperformed the other 4 condo markets tracked by S&P/Case-Shiller over every time period.
Perhaps, but no other time period (except the Great Depression)witnessed the collapse of the financial system, which of course is the life blood of NYC and the surroundinga areas.
So instead of providing graphs, perhaps you can provide us with a plausible explanation as to why NYC condos will continue to out perform etc. ?
#92 CAIBC:this has to be factored into the bid for us buyers out there….i can see this as a good thing for this pricing correction to take place…it probably will accelerate the whole downward spiral…
I Agree, I am just not sure how it can be done.If it becomes reality,and I cannot find out who in my town is getting a writedown on a mtg on their house that is similiar to the one I may be bidding on, than I am not buying. Simple as that.
3b, seneca,
there has to be a way to figure out who got the write downs…..the govt will keep records….given the current situation with the POTUS talking up transparency there is no way they cannot publish that data…
tell the realtors to take a hike…their days are numbered…with the internet and folks like grim out there, i am sure that most of the realtors will be out of a job within the next 5 years!
#107 CAIBC: If this goes through, what do potential buyers who may be ou there this Spring do.
Instead of another grim market, this could possibly absolutely bring the market almost to a standstill.
Plus the room for fraud is immense.
I know a few people with spouses who work part time (15-30K a year)
They would be better off in mnay case, to quit the part time job, get the 30% mark down, than eventually get another part-time job.
Its a win-win for them.
Friends went to look at some houses in West Caldwell over the weekend. They said they’re shocked at the asking prices. They wanted to know why the prices are the same as they were two years ago? Their words, not mine.
#109 gary: Tell your friends to stay home, until this mtg write down crap is figured out. Oh and tell them to tell the sellers to stick their houses up their arses.
Has anyone else noticed a delay in transactions showing up in NJ.com or mycentraljersey.com’s real estate databases? I haven’t seen much (if any) activity from 2008 in either of those sites, while previously they were both about 4-6 months behind the current date. I hope the real estate lobby hasn’t succeeded in shutting them out.
here is a better plan….if this actaully goes into effect, as a rule of thumb, every offer you make will have to be 30% below asking cause you cant tell whether the seller got the deal or not….or wait until the market corrects itself…
thats going to be my strategy going forward…my opinion, if this actaully goes into effect, there is absolutely no way to price the ‘toxic assets’ anymore…its going to be mayhem for the banks and other institutions…
3b (108)-
We might all do better to slowly and quietly start moving off the grid and easing away from our dependence on gubmint, banks, schools and other authorities.
My wife & kids actually sat and let me describe two get out of the US plans to them this weekend.
Chile seems to be their #1 preference on the “bug out” list I gave them.
Yikes, if you are in LM Township, you should not be surprised to find many of your neighbors commuting to NYC. It’s really not that astonishing to us simpleton Bucks folks ;o)
In fact, the mechanics of commuting from parts of LMT is no longer than from Princeton or some of the Monmouth areas. I did the LMT – NYC commute 3x a week for a couple of years. Don’t get me wrong. It sux, but it’s really no worse than some of the commutes I personally experienced from North Jersey. Amtrak from Trenton to Penn Station = 1 hr plus or minus 10 mins. My office was only 6 blocks from there. Not a big deal. The salary more than made up for the commute and much cheaper cost of living. Many here appreciate that, plan to do it for some amount of time, and then move on. I did and know personally several who did the same.
Renter, as for schools, there are many good school districts and some not so much. The article from Philly Mag is a good place to start but their methodology not quite accurate picture of the districts. In any event, Bucks schools are similarly “blue ribbon” to their equivalent demographics in certain NJ towns.
For the car gurus out there. Say you have two cars coming off leases in the next 3 months. One is a GM, the other is a Chevy. Both dealerships saying they are not doing leases right now but its a great time to buy.
The Chevy is a piece of junk so good riddance. The GM is likable enough to keep. Do you:
(a) buy out the lease on the Buick and get a foreign-made vehicle to replace the Chevy
(b) be glad you can ditch the cars before they stop making parts for them and BUY two new vehicles or previously owned
(c) be glad you can ditch the cars before they stop making parts for them and LEASE two new vehicles or previously owned
(d) none of the above
Asking question for my bro who needs to have wheels while waiting for Armageddon to come. Has one infant so safety is key. HH income is just under six figures. Fervently patriotic and prefers to buy American. Discuss.
Seneca
buy used unless the new car goes for less then the used, which i have seen a few times lately
115…Simple. Ford.
I respect the fact that they refused Gov money…I liked their smaller Hybrid SUV…or that demon on wheels…the Mustang. I’d be all over a stang.
Or be like my wife and drive a Volvo…a FORD owned co.
Jmacdaddio-
Noticed the same thing. Mentioned it to my wife as well..tax records search as well.somethings fishy.
Hey Bi:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS#chart5:symbol=000001.ss;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
That’s quite a rally you just pointed out!
Sen (115),
If it were me, given the context we’re all living in right now, I’d dump those both in heartbeat and pick up two used japanese cars with moderate miles.
Full disclosure: I own a german car and there truly is no substitute, from an enthusiast’s perspective. However, not practical- the maintenance bills esp as the car ages are no joke.
chicagofinance says:
February 16, 2009 at 11:12 am
with EVERYONE doom and gloom these days … what are the chances that the turn comes and we all miss it?
WHAT IS YOUR DEFINITION OF MISSING THE TURN?
good question. i’d say that, among other things …
– everyone who has been stockpiling cash has 2-3x what they needed, and they don’t get in on the ground level regarding to stock market (i know, you’ll offer thoughts about timing the market) and perhaps scooping up a real estate investment property or getting real lucky and finding a beach/lake house on the super cheap.
i know, i know … armageddon is coming and none of these should be anywhere near one’s head at this point.
re# 75 – Chiacgo
What are the chances the turn comes and we miss it?
Same chance as the US getting back below 6% unemployment by the end of 2009.
Clot,
I know it could (and likely will) get ugly, but do you really think Hunterdon will be the eye of the storm?? Seems like not a bad place to ride it out, including lots of space to bury that gold. ;)
However, watching my local JC ‘hood quite carefully, as there have been a few crime incidents recently which have raised red flags (even for typical urban issues). It doesn’t help that the local PD and politicians are a bunch of corrupt thugs themselves…
Funny how all of a sudden, renting ain’t the worst thing in the world – when a quick getaway might be required!
“What are the chances the turn comes and we miss it?”
If you are in a coma, for the next 10 years, you won’t miss it.
3b. 106
“I Agree, I am just not sure how it can be done.If it becomes reality,and I cannot find out who in my town is getting a writedown on a mtg on their house that is similiar to the one I may be bidding on, than I am not buying. Simple as that.”
I agree, until transparency enters the game and I have access to all info, my money stays off the market. It seems so obvious to me that this is going to cause chaos. Anyone have any links to some of the better commentators on this particular issue? I’d like to read their take.
BC,
maybe we should go ahead and schedule a 202 Bubble reunion party, ask bi what stocks he likes then all jump back in the market?
Steve,
As a former JCer, I’m stunned by the recent reports of crimes in Montclair. Lot’s of armed robberies, suicides, domestic violence, etc.
Took Gator Jr. and his cousin to the Liberty Science Center. Took over 75 minutes just to get tickets and they were grossly overpriced. Of the 17 windows to purchase tickets, 6 were open and 3 were dedicated to members. Saw a bugs 3D movie which really had amazing 3D. At least half of the exhibits were broken and the ones that were working had unbelievable lines. Remind me never to go there again. Had we not had coupons, we would have paid $60 for the wonderful experience, not counting the $7 parking.
Hope everyone had a nice weekend.
Economists’ Forecast: Chance of Change 100%
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/16/nyregion/16york.html
“But one thing that everyone agreed on is that whenever the financial swoon ends, the city — and its economy — will probably look very different.”
Kettle1(55):
I’ll claim the extra-credit.
“Abandon all hope”. Didn’t the New Jersey legislature elect to have this voted in as the state motto in ’06 and have it posted on all the toll bridges into Jersey?
Seriously though, the author was Dante. Divine Comedy. The better-known portion of the inscription over the gates of hell.
Stu/Gator:
Saw you talking about appealing your taxes. If you want to talk to someone who has been through it, maybe grim can give you my e-mail. FYI, I did not use comps, but the purchase price of my house in back in ’04. The process is interesting to say the least.
Is there any merit in the idea of keeping big cash at home? You know, some place not too obvious.
I only bank at BoA, and wondering what would happen should it file bankruptcy. While I believe in FDIC, I am not sure I will be able to withdraw cash should the bank fold.
My immediate concern would be our cleaning lady, but if it’s hidden safe we should be good.. i think.
Holding 10K+ in cash at home a good idea?
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/02/15/nyregion/20080216-indicators-graphic.html
Courtesy of the Big Picture:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/new-york-citys-unemployment/
rent,
depends on your security. and how paranoid you are. If you ask SAS he may suggest booby-trapping the safe with claymores and ninjas
135
Don’t forget the big dog.
Celeb Real Estate Broker Goes Broke: Rise and Fall of Carlos Justo
When times were good he toured around town in his chauffeur-driven Rolls Royce. Million-dollar homes weren’t his business. He was only interested in multimillion-dollar homes, and the people who owned them or wanted to. That was then. Today, the Rolls has been replaced by a Land Rover. The high flyer who was worth $20 million in 2005 is now $12 million dollars in debt and declaring bankruptcy.
For a while, Justo’s home was a $7 million waterside Miami mansion. But when the market tanked, he could no longer afford the taxes — $135,000 a year — and the mortgage.
“I owned this home and we did the renovation and it didn’t sell for about six months,” he said as he stood on the driveway. Justo says he lost over $2 million on his own home alone.
Lost,
and maybe a few pirates for good measure. What sort of rates do the somalies charge???
Well, Kettle it’s not about paranoid as much as being safe. I’m thinking more along how much a family needs if there are no ATMs before FDIC releases your funds from the bust bank.
I’m withdrawing 10k tomorrow..
Transcript: Schmidt, Zandi on ‘FNS’
ZANDI: It’s bad. It’s about as bad as I’ve ever seen it. I mean, I’ve been a professional economist for 25 years, and the economy has unraveled in an incredible way, something I could not have even imagined six to 12 months ago.
But I think it’s important to realize that every crisis that we faced as a nation, you know, whether it’s a terrorist attack, whether it’s a natural disaster, whether it’s a financial calamity — and we’ve been through a few in our history — it’s when government responds aggressively and in a consistent way, that marks the end of the crisis.
And I think if we can take any optimism from what’s been happening over the course of the last four weeks, it’s that government is now acting aggressively.
Rent [139],
I did the same, this past fall.
Be careful of the amount of withdrawal.
I believe every transaction of $10K has to be reported to the gubmint. Make two withdrawals of $5K a week apart to avoid tripping the alarm.
You should also think about buying a bag of silver coins (circa 1960). If things really go all Armageddon on us….that silver could buy you safe passage. Walking Liberty Half Dollars are a beautiful coin.
Not sure if this was posted earlier.
Baseline Scenario: Peter Boone, Simon Johnson, and James Kwak, copyright of the authors.
Anyone have a source for rental price appreciation vs. inflation since WWII?
Yep, crunching numbers. Rent vs. buy on a primary in NH. Hopefully i will be out of NJ soon.
If there is chaos on the street, I can’t imagine going to Wegmans and buying groceries in exchange for a gold coin. Who in hell in Wegmans will know how to verify the gold coin, authencity etc etc.
Its best to withdraw some cash and keep at home isntead of gold/silver coins at home.
If there is chaos in the streets, your paper currency will likely have value only as kindling to keep your fire going.
A circulated silver coin (not clad) will get you more at Wegman’s than the $20 bill with Barney Frank’s picture on it.
88#, 120#, kettle, stu,
there is a big difference bewteen china and the united states: they ban all casinos in mainland and you have to go to macau if you want to gamble. this explains that chinese market can extend much far than you expected. good luck!
Cooper #13. RE is 50% of in Florida now, but was talking to a realitor yesterday, will rent a 3 story town home 2 car garage with 3 1/2 baths, 3 bedrooms for 1500 per month in Delray Beach, on Route One. Renting is a much better deal now, realitor even said he believes this year RE has much further to fall down here, I believe it will be the same all over the country too.
10#, what? if this bad bank /good bank stuff goes through, citi will be the first victim. if PPT really wanted to pop the market, the best way they could do would be dumping GM, C and BAC combined and buying IBM. guess what? it would drag down DOW only 80 pts if GM, C and BAC all go to zero.
> Just bought some GM and Citi stock. Great deal, Dollar cost average baby!!!!
24#, lisoosh, sorry to hear this. while we are mocking each other here all the time, personally i do think you are very intelligent. wish you the best.
Speaking of Florida real estate, thanks to all of you that offered advice on DH’s situation. He signed the quitclaim deed to grandma today. Finally, we are done with that mess.
Bi #150, I think the problem isn’t subprime, Alt A, Prime…the problem is the STRUCTURE of the world economy, dependent on the US consumer to provide a return on the enormous over investment from countries like China, Germany, Japan…etc. It will take a long time to cure this reliant economic structure. Japan has the best PPT in the world and their stock market isn’t even close to the old glory days of a 40k pt Nikkei.
newbies – you would be wise to disregard any and everything ‘bi’ writes.
i’ll leave it at that.
– reader since 06
151 – A slightly worried thanks.
I FOUND Mrs. PRET!!!!
From the link at #129 –
“New York City isn’t like Elkhart, Ind.,” Ms. O’Cleireacain said,
… New York, she said, “is a magnet for talent: for smart, enterprising, ambitious, innovative people, not only from this country but from around the world. Everyone wants to be here, and I think that sets us apart from virtually any other city.”
this blog has been quiet lately….is everyone really going to the banks for withdraw all their money?
Fiddy #142, 145 – Good suggestion about the 5k withdrawals.
#126 Barbara:Anyone have any links to some of the better commentators on this particular issue? I’d like to read their take.
Excpet for this board, I have not seen or heard it discussed anywhere.
i think it’s slow due to the holiday.
the keeping $ at home is a great strategy … the problem, of course, is that if EVERYONE starts doing this, i think you’ll definitely see crime rise.
this is where the dog comes in handy.
or, just working at home and packing heat. the carry permit in PA – $46.00 and 2 “references” that are not family members.
Lisoosh-Sorry to hear the news. You’re in good company though.
Kettle – Thanks for the links. I can always count on you.
Re: Elkhart, Indiana – I have family there and believe me, it is bleak – they say the unemployment rate is more like 17% and they asked us to give donations to the Salvation Army in Elkhart instead of Christmas presents to them. That has NEVER happened before.
CAIBC
is everyone really going to the banks for withdraw all their money?
yes….
stater
NP
Oh dear, I’ve used the soci@lism word, jb.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C06E0D91238F934A15752C0A96E9C8B63
http://seekingalpha.com/article/117269-cramdowns-and-refinancings-won-t-need-appraisalshttp://www.dogpile.com/
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2009_01/016634.php
http://seekingalpha.com/article/117269-cramdowns-and-refinancings-won-t-need-appraisals
#130 John
I thought the bridges only charged a toll to get OUT of New Jersey.
Our own little expatriation tax…
130. John says: February 16, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Kettle1(55):
I’ll claim the extra-credit.
“Abandon all hope”. Didn’t the New Jersey legislature elect to have this voted in as the state motto in ‘06 and have it posted on all the toll bridges into Jersey?
Stu (120)-
bi’s attention span is so short, he thinks inhaling is a rally.
“1 portion of my weekend entertainment…. enjoy and ignore the typos, still have to proofread it, its a work in progress”
The font is to small?
I can’t zoom in.
SAS
“Outrage brewing over proposed 1,900% beer tax hike”
http://tinyurl.com/cgtzcl
“I FOUND Mrs. PRET!!!!”
I thought the same thing.
“It’s different here.”
Clotpoll says:
February 16, 2009 at 1:53 pm
3b (108)- We might all do better to slowly and quietly start moving off the grid and easing away from our dependence on gubmint, banks, schools and other authorities. My wife & kids actually sat and let me describe two get out of the US plans to them this weekend. Chile seems to be their #1 preference on the “bug out” list I gave them.
clot: I mean this comment with the greatest amount of empathy and concern. Please start taking those heroin speedballs again. I think your life is running off the rails without the self-medication…..
Steve (124)-
I don’t feel at all safe here. Way too many people who’ve never really had to work like something was really on the line; way too many soft, overweight people who seem far too eager to embrace the new American soci@lism; way too many people between 40-50 y/o who will never replace the incomes they never really earned in the first place.
The blow-off bottoms to this whole system of a down are going to happen in some very unlikely, very genteel places. Hunterdon is just one of many.
the first riots to occur in Kansas?
who would of thought..
“Kan. suspends income tax refunds, may miss payroll”
http://tinyurl.com/cjdws4
-Kansas has suspended income tax refunds and may not be able to pay employees on time, the state’s budget director said Monday.
“Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown
The unfolding debt drama in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU states of Eastern Europe has reached acute danger point”
http://tinyurl.com/aavxj6
SAS
move your mouse over the downward pointing arrow at the top of the PDF and then click on the “+” sign to zoom in.
or go here
http://www.scribd.com/doc/12454619/Housing-1
and download it as a PDF if thats easier
cheers
did you buy any Citi stock today??? i here JPM is a hot deal as well.
was trucking one night and made a stop in Colby, Kansas.
talk about a one horse town.
SAS
clot…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOA8QT-sk4M&feature=related
“Spreads highlight Ireland fears”
http://tinyurl.com/bre4mu
yikes says:
February 16, 2009 at 2:52 pm
good question. i’d say that, among other things …
– everyone who has been stockpiling cash has 2-3x what they needed, and they don’t get in on the ground level regarding to stock market (i know, you’ll offer thoughts about timing the market) and perhaps scooping up a real estate investment property or getting real lucky and finding a beach/lake house on the super cheap.
Sean says:
February 16, 2009 at 3:04 pm
re# 75 – Chiacgo
What are the chances the turn comes and we miss it? Same chance as the US getting back below 6% unemployment by the end of 2009.
yikes and live-shooter-of-ammo (a.k.a. slipped one past the goalie): real estate? …..trip the fcuk out of here…you can defend buying real estate in other parts of the country on a unique opportunity/strategic basis, but if you are buying anywhere that can be construed as commuting distance to NYC, then you are tacitly stating that you plan not to move for the next 10 years without booking a NOMINAL loss.
Stock market, which should be broaden to a description as any investment class with liquid and solvent markets….I think there is opportunity RIGHT NOW, but you will have to think through that one….you certainly have plenty of guys here willing to rub-one-out for you on these threads….
GM will need to drop several brands and cut 1700 dealers, while “O” guarantees no teacher losses a job or benefits, in a society with no jobs or future. The wheels on the bus go round, round, round. Proof positive we are doomed. Nero is fiddling, while Rome burns.
Where should you put your money for safety and access?
Many people here do not realize that grim has created a safe and secure digital lockbox. The DONATE button the site is not just one way. The PayPal function can work in both directions. You can send up to $9,999.99 per wire to the DONATION lockbox. As requested, your funds will be returned at some future point in time. Grim has stress tested the system under various environemnts and the functionality under duress is robust.
Rioting has already started near hedge fund land in CT…..
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02162009/news/regionalnews/bizarre_animal_attack_in_stamford_155493.htm
OT (yet again…)
Is there any concern with buying “pre owned” vehicles vs the safety of new?
I am looking at another Pathfinder…I see a 3 yr old one that looks pretty good (online) at a dealership near me.
Has most of what I want and to be honest, I really don’t feel like plunking down a full 30+K for new if I don’t have to…
My commute is huge though…an hr each way and I need a reliable vehicle. I don’t know what type (or even if) there is a warranty attached or if it’s worth buying one….
agh…. my brain hurts…
sl
I have never understood the used vs new argument as it pertains to the safety of a vehicle.
I have never purchased a new car and I don’t think I ever will. I instead opt to get a lot more for my money with a two year old vehicle purchased from a responsible owner.
So long as your Pathfinder isn’t from Newark, isn’t equipped with 22″ rims, has a quad tailpipe and you’re not buying it from a 25 year old… I really don’t see the problem.
You’ll save a tremendous amount of money going this route vs new! Take some of that saved money, get 30K service done and buy a new pair of tires. You’ll be much safer sporting a reliable contact patch with the road in a just serviced vehicle.
Now, why you’d want a Pathfinder is a whole another story. :)
btw, I think I posted this but just an alternative to the previously discussed methods:
leasetrader dot com
the previous owner pays the tax and the entire down payment, you simply take over the lease as is and pay the monthly.
If you’re waiting for a new model to come out or something and need a car to bridge the time, this is a cost conscious way to get into a lease.
-Kansas has suspended income tax refunds and may not be able to pay employees on time, the state’s budget director said Monday.
What happens when this starts happening on a daily basis across the entire US?
sl
“What happens when this starts happening on a daily basis across the entire US?”
we run to the NJRE bubble blog compund.
as for me, i’ve got routes all planned out.
SAS
Zieba 187,186
Thanks!
I actually really like my Pathfinder..I’ve had mine for 8 yrs and really like it.
Yeah, when gas is $4 a gallon I’m sad but then I see a trauma patient who was in a modified soda can and I become immediately grateful for having a pile of steel around me.
I also love the higher line of sight vs a car.
Will look at the leasetrader site though
and Thanks again!
sl
but then again your appetite for risk may not be the same as mine. I play with FAZ and I did buy my last car ($15K) from a wholesaler with a heavy eastern European accent at a McDonald’s parking lot in Philly.
“I will sand taitel to you in two weeks. here are keys. sank you.”
kansas is the new cali
http://www.kansas.com/735/story/701750.html
NJ next?
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2009/02/bank-solvency-and-geithner-plan.html
Bank Solvency and the “Geithner Plan”
More than a post – It’s an essay – no, make that a book.
I’m more of a large sedan kind of guy.
That site is interesting since the last guy really absorbs most of what makes a lease a bad financial decision; front loaded taxes and large down payment. The fees involved in taking over are $500 all-in I believe.
How about a Volvo XC90?
BTW, you can go certified used route and take on even less risk than a private party transaction.
Nobody wants to buy a eight year old clunker but you’d be surprised some of those two year old cars look barely broken in.
Nassim Taleb, author of the Black Swan, talks straight and makes sound suggestions. How did he get on TV? He sure upset the CNBC flock of talking heads.
http://tinyurl.com/bfa8ua
Still no budget here in Cali. Many worry that the $14.3B in new taxes won’t be “temporary.”
Part of the $40B plan is to cut $15B in programs – but the skeptics believe once the federal funds come through, they will just reinstate the cuts AND we will still be paying new taxes…
On and on we go…
That’s what makes me the angriest about this stimulus. O promised to slash wasteful spending in DC by going over programs with a fine tooth comb, yet he’s throwing money at bloated state budgets. HUH?
CNBC.. total losers.
SAS
The Roubinator cleaned up nice. Someone combed his hair and tied his necktie correctly. He looked quite disheveled a year ago before they gave him a nickname.
sas, this for you…
” Wall Street Execs Knew Madoff Was a Fraud Years Ago But Kept Silent
There is no way that the top execs on Wall Street did not know Bernie Madoff was running a scam. No way.
Why? Because once they heard he was pulling down those kinds of returns in all types of markets they would have had their own whiz kids climbing up his company’s investment portfolio looking to see how he did it. They would want to do it too. It took Markopolos how many minutes to figure out it wasn’t legitimate?
But now you know why so few Wall Street firms lost any money with Madoff despite his ‘superior returns.’
Why did they keep quiet? Professional courtesy amongst scumbags is not likely, because there isn’t any. More likely Bernie knew about some of their frauds, and that made him untouchable.
If they dig deeply enough they might find the real truth behind the Madoff scam, and it won’t be pretty. This is no lone trader operation.
We may never hear the details behind this scam. It might shake our confidence in the system.”
I just took a look at the Asian markets. Bi’s black box might have just created a short-term top on the Shanghai Composite. All praise Bi’s black box.
Our market futures are way down as well, but a lot can change overnight.
And for the record, we do not have a lot of extra cash at home. Worse case scenario, we sell the Bugaboo!
I’d rather cut down state budgets on a long term basis and offer extended benefits to the laid off workers in the short term.
omama
largest disappointment in history.
but hey, he is black.
kumbaya!
SAS
Clot (174),
Understand re: the lack of hardship experience, as you say there are folks out there who might not have had to struggle… and it certainly gets tougher with age and commitments. Add to that a major hit to net worth (via S&P and those “housing” assets) it’s not going to be fun-
ATTENTION HOMEBUYERS
How to Beat the Home Buying Bubble of Over-Inflated Prices
There is an answer to the astronomical rising prices of homes. Within our area, housing prices have more than doubled (and in some instances, have tripled) in the past 5-6 years for no reason except greed. People have put themselves into debt, because they did not want to lose a home because they became emotionally attached and in turn, took out a mortgage that a mortgage broker said they could afford -when in actuality they could not. I am a homeowner in Chatham and have lived here for most of my life. The realtors have strongly brainwashed homebuyers to purchase more expensive homes than they could afford and persuaded home buyers to take out huge mortgages in order to purchase a home. Due to the greed of the realtors, the homeowners who sold their homes, which accelerated into a false “supply and demand”, houses have escalated so much that middle class prospective homebuyers cannot afford to purchase a home. My children cannot afford to purchase a home.
Greed has brought down Wall Street, Banks, Mortgage companies, and other large corporations. This is where we had to fall, in order to learn and know the important things in life. When I sell my home, it will be for the Pre-Real Estate Boom price: an average price where the middle class person can afford to purchase a home, easily. This will begin the lowering cost of homes. People are losing their homes and their jobs. Middle America cannot get over-inflated mortgages, any longer, nor do they want to. We have entered into an economic collapse.
A colleague of mine has been looking to purchase his first home. Just to give you an example, in December 2002, the house sold for $210,000. In October 2008 (5 years later), the realtor has listed the home price as $420,000. Bear in mind, there has been a small amount of cosmetic work done to the home (nothing exceptional). The price has listed as more than doubled in the past 5 years, which is completely ludicrous. A doubling of a house price in 5 years is pure greed. This is just one of the many examples in this area of a 20 mile radius. Has your salary doubled or tripled within 5 years? No, in fact, many salaries have decreased in the past 5 years.
When my colleague had questioned the realtor regarding the reasoning behind the over- inflated prices, she mentioned “it was for a reason.” She alluded to the statement to “keep particular people out.” I expressed to her how disgusting that was and at this time in history, someone actually had the audacity to express this sentiment. She was from a big conglomerate Realtor firm. Needless to say, my colleague dropped her as a realtor and strongly advises against recommending her company.
People need to stick together and look at the “big picture” and look at their fellow man, instead of the most exhorbant amount of money they can put into their pockets.
So, as homebuyers, there is a way to bring the prices of homes (Pre-boom real estate prices – 2001) to an affordable price.
1) In the state of New Jersey, the cost of a sale of a home is public information. All records date back to the building of the home.
2) Call the Taxation Dept. at the Borough Town Hall in the designated town. Give them the address of your prospective home and ask them all the sale dates of the home and what they sold for. You may want to know the last 3 or 4 home sales of the particular home in order to determine the inflated real estate boom market price and to determine a bid price.
3) Bid according to the price BEFORE the Real Estate Boom Market. At the point of the Real Estate Boom Market – during and at its highest peak, these are over-inflated homes and they are simply not worth it.
4) For example, the house that my colleague was reviewing, sold for $210,000 in December 2002. In October 2008, the realtor listed the price as $420,000. So, with the collapse of the economy; people losing their jobs and homes, coupled with the doubling over-inflated prices of homes, in order to bid for a home, bid closer to the 2002 price of $210,000 with an increase of a few dollars. Use your discretion.
5) Do not be swayed by realtors. They are conniving, aggressive sales people, who are looking out for how much money they can put in their pockets. They are NOT looking out for your best interest, whatsoever. The most used phrase to attempt to condone listing homes with extremely high prices; even the most modest small/average home in the Chatham, NJ or the Morris County area, the realtor would say in that unconvincing wispy voice, “It’s C-h-a-t-h-a-m” or “It’s M-A-D-I-S-O-N.” You could sell a home in any neighborhood with those sales tactics and using that tone and connotation. “It’s W-H-I-P-P-A-N-Y.” Sounds the same, right? You understand the brainwashing techniques.
There are homeowners in this area and the surrounding towns, who are able to sell their home for a reasonable price. Not everyone is greedy. Another friend of mine sold their home. This was at the beginning of the real estate boom. His house was listed as $750,000 by the realtor. He met a couple whom he liked. He expressed to the couple that he has been blessed with an average income and a wonderful family, and would like to give someone an opportunity. He sold his house for more than ½ the listed price at $350,000. Look at the possibilities. Do not listen to the negative people. Everything is possible.
The more homebuyers use these tactics and stick to this principle, the more homes will decline in price, close to where they were before the Real Estate Inflationary Boom of Double and Triple prices. Soon, homebuyers will be able to purchase homes again at a reasonable price and not an inflationary false price.
Good luck!
timothy geithner = failure
SAS
then you have to ask yourself, if it takes this much unattainable money for decent public schools, public safety, infrastructure, strong military, top notch health care, great housing with all the zoning and coding, disaster relief agencies, good government, state of the art technologies, and all carried on the back of a world class economy, fair judicial system and democratic values within representative govt……..maybe the American Dream is a fantasy and were never there, ever. We were just on a floating line of credit called wishful thinking.
RE estate or not, property taxes & 50 billion+ pension fund deficit will enslave you.
SAS
Barbara,
“George Carlin “the American Dream”
http://tinyurl.com/bdct38
SAS
Stu (128),
Interesting, I thought they’d done a large renovation over past 1-2yrs? I believe it was shut down for some time…
Yeah, our little enclave has generally been better than surrounding areas (Paulus Hook) but incidents are starting to pop up with increasing frequency, it seems.
I don’t know if the politicians here have figured the loss of income tax revenue into their equation…they keep raising taxes and we will keep losing tax-paying residents.
Stu – No cash here as well. I do not see the break down that others here predict…that’s just me.
Lease trader is a scam. If it looks too good to be true, it usually is.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=lease+trader+scam&aq=2&oq=lease+trader
#205 Barbara – The American Dream isn’t a fantasy – we’ve just gotten sidetracked. We’ll get through this mess, we always do. Remember that there are lots of people just like you who want the things you mentioned and are willing to work for them without going into debt in order to provide a good start for their children. There are a lot of good people out there. We’ll be okay.
Goodnight all.
And it’s a great nite over in Asia.
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
Something bad is brewing in Asia tonite. Talk to all of you in the am.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/801-RED-ALERT-FX-Dislocation-In-Process.html
Sorry for being MIA, down in Dallas for a few days.
1.4% down on Nikkei isn’t the first sign of Armageddon.
211.
But, we’ve never had great health care for all, great schools for all, great housing. Yet, we expect to have it and as more of us get it or close to it, the scales tip and the economy tanks under the sheer weight of that kind of high quality of life. To me, its just not in the cards, for any society.
anyone have a clue about this denninger RED ALERT post? is that guy off his meds?
this must be it
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Bank-Japan-under-pressure-come/story.aspx?guid={D069EE1C-7178-4545-BF16-CD799F2F3405}
207.
sas
Thanks, always a good one :)
RIP George
Toto, I have a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore.
How to save the world’s economy:
cold medicine + wine
Brook (203)-
You write this? If so, I crown you the mayor of Simpleton.
Brook (203)-
Your distrust of market forces is Omama-like.
You come here through Pravda (NY Times)?
But in New Jersey and across the United States, a shrinking job market through 2008 suggests that for the next year, at least, households will continue struggling to pay the bills — much less save money.
If you are using WordPress as the core part of your affiliate marketing site you need to know that WordPress by default not only pings when you post a new item but it also pings when you update or edit a post. So if you proofread your posts and find errors or have to change out links etc WordPress pings every time you save the post. This has still not been fixed as of WordPress 2.