From the Record:
Stimulus, warm weather could spur home repairs
With remodeling in a slump, home improvement companies reached out to potential customers Sunday at the annual New Jersey Home Show at the Meadowlands Expo Center.
“It’s been slower for sure,” Gary Griffith, vice president of Roofing Sales Co. in East Rutherford, said at the show. “Contractors say they have a lot of estimates out there. People are thinking about having work done, but I don’t think they’re ready to let go of the money.”
Roofing Sales Co., which sells building supplies to contractors, recently laid off three workers — the first layoffs in its 87-year history.
The company’s experiences are being repeated around the nation. Spending on home renovations dropped around 12 percent in 2008, according to a recent study by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, which predicted that spending will continue to decline this year.
“Uncertainty in the housing market continues to stifle spending on homeowner improvements,” said Nicolas P. Retsinas, the center’s director. “In light of escalating job losses, consumers are reluctant to undertake major remodeling projects.”
“People are holding on to their money,” agreed Hector D. Castro, sales manager of Professional Carpet Co. in Hackensack and Wayne, which also exhibited at the show.
Customers who might have spent $2,000 to $3,000 to replace their carpet are now spending $500 to $600 to clean it instead, he said.
The steep decline in the number of home sales — down almost 40 percent in New Jersey since the peak in 2005 — also means a big drop in the number of carpets being ripped up and replaced, Castro said.
“Anytime the housing market suffers, everything inside the house suffers,” he said.
Both Griffith and Castro said they hope business will pick up in the spring, a traditionally busy time in the home renovation industry. They also said they hope the economic stimulus package will make Americans less anxious about spending.
From CNBC:
Trump Entertainment Files for Chapter 11
Trump Entertainment Resorts, Donald Trump’s casino group, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Tuesday, court documents show.
he casino operator had assets of about $2.1 billion and total debts of about $1.74 billion on Dec. 31, 2008, it said in its filing with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of New Jersey.
Nine affiliates of the casino operator including Trump Plaza Associates, Trump Plaza Associates, Trump Marina Associates and Trump Taj Mahal Associates simultaneously sought protection, according to the filing.
Frust!
Drat!
Trump = fail
Nah, he resigned the day before. Now he can say he had nothing to do with the bankruptcy.
I wish NBC would cancel his idiotic show.
From Newsday:
Fortunoff lays off 300, faces lawsuit
Fortunoff has dramatically scaled down its corporate operations, laying off about 300 of its corporate staff in the past two days and triggering a class-action lawsuit by some of the fired workers.
The struggling jewelry and home goods retailer, whose parent company confirmed the layoffs, filed for bankruptcy protection Feb. 5. But some former employees said the large number of positions eliminated seemed to point to a very bleak future for the company.
“It’s sad,” said Andrew Zernickow, 46, a Fortunoff facilities engineer for 22 years who was laid off Friday. “It’s happening so quickly that nobody has a handle on it.”
Anybody got some cold medicine? This wine doesn’t taste so good.
Great post at Naked Capitalism on the “stress tests” being conducted on banks.
Short version; the outcome is pre-ordained, no real tests are being conducted, no difficult question will be asked, they will attempt to resume business as usual.
Yves has had a lot of great posts on Geithner, Summers, et al in the past few weeks. It’s really worth the read.
Will there even be an AC left?
From the Press of Atlantic City:
Facing foreclosure, Resorts fights to hang on
Resorts Atlantic City, in an unprecedented fight for survival, is asking New Jersey gaming regulators to block attempts by its main lender to foreclose on the troubled casino.
Resorts contends that lender Column Financial Inc. and its affiliates lack a New Jersey casino license, so they should not be allowed to take over the property or gain control of its finances.
…
The aging Resorts, which was Atlantic City’s first casino when it opened in 1978, has struggled to compete against the next generation of casinos and has also been battered by the recession. In 2008, Resorts had gross gaming revenue of $233.2 million, down 16.3 percent from the previous year and the second-lowest among Atlantic City’s 11 casino hotels. It lost $22.2 million during the first three quarters of 2008.
Marcus blamed Resorts’ precarious financial condition solely on the economic crisis, which has plunged Atlantic City’s casino industry into a prolonged slump of declining revenue.
“It’s not a management issue. It’s not an ownership issue. It’s the economy,” he said.
It lost $22.2 million during the first three quarters of 2008.
Wow, how bad is it when fixed games lose money?
Japan’s Finance Minister resigns.
The reason WWII worked is because a good part of world productive capacity was destroyed in the war.
We were the only country with factories left standing.
There was no other choice but to buy from us.
tosh (13)-
Wake me up when he disembowels himself.
Something major is about to pop, shtf, days/weeks away. Probably just a global systemic crisis, caused by paper and resulting in a paper crash. Brace yourself.
#14 – Thanks Grim. Few people ever point that out but it needs to be said.
Wow, how bad is it when fixed games lose money?
You’ve got to look at this from Frank’s perspective. NJ residents are so intelligent, so savvy, they are able to take casino winnings disproportionately. This demonstrates the skill and ingenuity of the typical Jerseyite. This is not a negative at all, but a strong positive. We’re so good, we brought down the house.
I guess this means bi won’t be around for a few days.
His black box is in the shop, I suspect.
Still in Dallas, I’ll be here until Wednesday.
grim (20)-
Can you stop by the FedCo branch there and say “hi” to the crew for me?
Congress should take note, a headline from MarketWatch:
Smithfield to restructure pork group, shut plants
grim (20)-
Don’t miss the Texas Book Depository. A must-see for all gun enthusiasts.
BC (17)-
On a related note, that must’ve been a helluva party the G7 tossed over the weekend. Why worry about Ireland going bust when you can hang out with the smartest guys in the world and do NyQuil shots?
Sorry Mr Edwards, but it isn’t organized labor who will be stealing NJ stimulus dollars, it’s organized crime.
From NJ Voices:
Jersey’s deal with unions steals from the stimulus
Gov. Jon Corzine wants the federal government to send money to New Jersey so that construction can begin on “shovel-ready” but unfunded capital projects. Without waiting for a federal handout and without spending more state tax dollars than those already committed, Corzine can tackle some of those projects now.
To do so, he has to stop a practice that significantly increases construction costs. The practice exits for the sole purpose of benefiting organized labor, an important constituency of Corzine’s Democratic Party. Abandoning it may cause Corzine some political grief, but if he’s serious about quickly and efficiently expanding construction projects and improving New Jersey’s public infrastructure, then he should be willing to aggravate some political supporters.
From the Star Ledger:
Downturn means more St. Peter’s College students can’t pay tuition
Shortly after the new year began, Gene Cornacchia, the president of St. Peter’s College, confronted a problem that had not occurred in his 30 years in higher education.
A large number of students had unexpectedly run into financial problems and, if the old rules applied, should have been dismissed from the Jersey City college.
“I was told we had 123 students who began the new semester $5,000 or more in arrears on their tuition bills,” Cornacchia said.
Now this sort of thing does happen, not just at St. Peter’s but at all colleges. Usually, the numbers are small — a handful of students either run into problems or forget to pay their bills.
It simply doesn’t happen to more than 100 students.
That’s more than 5 percent of the Jesuit college’s full-time enrollment.
“Why worry about Ireland going bust when you can hang out with the smartest guys in the world and do NyQuil shots?”
Clot,
Come to think of it, what was the alternative? Substantive, structural policy changes? Just another comatose group, happy to get together for a pic.
BC (27)-
“Come to think of it, what was the alternative?”
Somebody could’ve stood them against a wall & executed them.
Where’s Al Quaida when you need them?
SRS up 8% in pre-market. Thanks Bi.
“Somebody could’ve stood them against a wall & executed them.”
Clot,
Excellent point. On the flip side, maybe we should keep them going? Their actions/inactions do provide tremendous opportunities.
#24 Coffee all over my laptop. Thanks, CLot.
BC (30)-
Loaded up, short & shiny.
What a fcuking strategy. I never thought I’d see such a thing in my life.
All this talk about AQ striking again is ridiculous.
They don’t need to lift a finger; we’re destroying ourselves.
grim,
Since you’re in TX, how about investigating the Stanford Ponzi Scheme?
#16,
“Something major is about to pop”
Maybe your pants??, the buttons are working overtime.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/02/lower-rent-or-else.html
Clot – Did you see this from Mish –
Lower the rent or else
Frank [35],
We can all agree, it’s certianly not your wallet.
By the way, I work in my shorts.
Cindy (36)-
You have warmed my cold, cold heart with that article.
My favorite part:
“Pier 1 Imports is sitting on about $117 million in cash and is burning up that cash at a rate of about $31 million per quarter. Its share price is 32 cents. I doubt Pier 1 survives the year no matter how much lower it negotiates is leases.”
Multiply the above by about another 100 stores in similar condition that sell useless trinkets and crap made by slaves, and you have an incipient commercial RE meltdown.
Got SRS?
That’s certainly.
Peter Schiff Speaks in Saudi Arabia “stop lending us money!” Jan 2009
I agree with BC Bob, however it may be today.
RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
props to grim for being a celeb in NY Times this weekend. Liked you being quoted and this site being plugged. Of course the times labeled all of us RE Bears, I guess that is better than the times article that was next which called folks like me who did not tender their GMAC bonds Freeloaders. Well I am a freeloader and an RE Bear. I did mention a few times over last month that Fed is can’t lower fed funds anymore, but by back door encouraging banks to lower CD rates will force people who need interest income to move to munis, corporates and MBS slowly but surely. Well ING is not doing 1.5% cds, that is a high yield CD account!!! Guess when those nice November 2008 CDs mature grandma is getting a pail of cold water in the face.
ING Orange CD Options
6 Month 1.50% 01/29/2009
9 Month 1.50% 01/29/2009
12 Month 2.00% 01/29/2009
18 Month 2.00% 01/29/2009
24 Month 2.00% 01/29/2009
30 Month 2.00% 01/29/2009
36 Month 2.00% 01/29/2009
48 Month 2.25% 01/29/2009
60 Month 2.25% 01/29/2009
Sean [41],
I agree, it’s coming apart at the seams.
have you been sniffing barney frank’s zipper?
BC Bob says:
February 17, 2009 at 7:47 am
Something major is about to pop, shtf, days/weeks away. Probably just a global systemic crisis, caused by paper and resulting in a paper crash. Brace yourself.
Something major is about to pop
Is it the impending collapse of the punt or the pound?
John (42)-
“Guess when those nice November 2008 CDs mature grandma is getting a pail of cold water in the face.”
That water should nicely moisten her cat chow.
SL
regarding leasetrader.
i picked up a car from there in Oct. Everything went very smoothly. Just do due diligence. for example, i got the current lease holder to give me the phone number of the bank who held the lease and called them to verify the specifics. The bank verified everything was on the level and the trade was made.
I would use it again. but as always if its to good to be true it may be. just due do diligence.
Yup BCBob and we should see gold and the dollar much higher, and stocks much lower.
chances we could see 7500 today?
From Bloomberg:
New York Manufacturing Index Dropped to Record Low
Manufacturing in New York contracted in February at the fastest pace on record, signaling the recession that began more than a year ago is intensifying.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index fell to minus 34.7, the lowest level since records began in 2001, from minus 22.2 percent in January, the bank said today. Readings below zero for the Empire State index signal manufacturing activity is shrinking.
…
Manufacturing “is likely to remain under severe pressure in coming quarters,” Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc., a New York forecasting firm, said in a note to clients. “With economic activity weakening sharply around the world, exports are dropping like a stone. Moreover, an increasingly constrained consumer, deepening woes for the housing sector, and a desire to pare inventories will all continue to weigh heavily on domestic demand.”
when the natives revolt, they’re going right for frank’s POS cape for all the racist comments he’s made on here
From what I hear the Irish currency will be renamed from the Punt to the Pint, all Pints will be redeemable at any pub for a pint of guniness, Ireland is going to have a one year holiday until all pints are redeemed.
Dow lower at open, but will end the week higher, Mr O and Timmy G going to be on a press junket to promote their latest flim flam plan.
toshiro_mifune says:
February 17, 2009 at 8:41 am
Something major is about to pop
Is it the impending collapse of the punt or the pound?
#42 John: Trust me, the average retail investor is dead, and will be for years. They are not coming back.
Out on LI the indians like to live in Floral Park or Hicksville, the jewish people five towns or great neck, the asians love syosset and parts of great, the wasps like old brookville, the catholic stock market types manhasset,the ecurdorians love freeport, the cops and firemen like levitown, etc etc. People like to live where they are comfortable and near similar people so their kids can have playdates, then dates and eventually a spouse. Is that racism? Not really, an indian couple, black couple, spanish couple, jewish couple etc. who want their kids to marry someone similar is still legal last I checked.
yikes says:
February 17, 2009 at 8:49 am
when the natives revolt, they’re going right for frank’s POS cape for all the racist comments he’s made on here
#52 John: No punt, thay have the Euro, although the way things are going over there, they may withdraw from the European common currency.
“Mr O and Timmy G going to be on a press junket to promote their latest flim flam plan.
John,
Great news. Gold will jump another $50.
3b (53)-
Retail investors were long ago taken to the woodshed and whipped like redheaded stepchildren. Now we have 201k’s, a giant segment of the population who will have to work until the day they keel over dead…and we still have the collapse of the entire pension system ahead of us.
On the positive side, SIRI is up 80% in the pre-market. From .11 to .19.
Rally!
SRS premarket 75.68
Bi may just have to eat his shorts today.
Ireland would make an excellent experiment in reverting to the gold standard.
average retail investor had penuts to begin with and now is left with only peanut shells. they ain’t going to make or break anything.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Spot-gold-hits-2009-high/story.aspx?guid={20A5EE6E-B892-4639-ABF8-540A566F0187}
Gold soaring
Sean (58)-
The one thing we haven’t had yet is that “oh, shit” day. I can only remember the curbs being in once last Fall, and that was pre-open…on a day that eventually ended up.
I sure get the feeling one of those “Black” days is coming this week or next.
OK – maybe you guys are worried about us, but if it is any solace, the French are fcuked and clueless beyond belief…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFMI9NU93iQ&feature=related
Something big happened last night. I do not know if Denniger is correct in his assessment but this upshot in gold is surely not normal.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
I do know one thing, CNBC will not even touch this story.
Clot – I mentioned I was in Eastern Europe back in October, well they are screwed, and so is Spain.
We should see European Bank Failures galore any day now since they don’t have the same printing press technology we do.
re#64 All Hype
Gold = 4th Currency
Why is it I am not the least bit worried? Lets see, I could care less what my house is worth, bottom line ownning it is cheaper than renting, I could care less what my 401K is worth, all that matter is what it is worth from 67 to death. I could care less what my cars are worth, I plan on driving them till they are old as the hills anyhow. I have life insurance, the proper nest egg in case of lay-off etc. Bottom line is that most worried 50 year olds spent their money like drunken sailors the last 15 years and the bar tab is due. That is not a global meltdown, that is a meltdown of fools. To be honest, most people my age are like me, in fact I would say 90% of people are like me. The 10% of fools are attempting to bring the whole system down, which is scary!!
Sean [65],
Regarding E.Eur;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4642259/Eastern-European-currencies-crumble-as-fears-of-debt-crisis-grow.html
http://media.fresnobee.com/smedia/2009/02/12/09/0212Stage4.source.prod_affiliate.8.pdf
for bicycle enthusiasts – Stage 4 – tomorrow – ending about a half mile from my house in Old Town Clovis.
John (67)-
You live in a magnificent delusion.
BC, Sean say ” RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process”
Thanks for the heads up fellas. Can i please get a dumbed down translation? FX is over my head. I never understood those tedious triangular parity arbitrage calcs.
Opel in Germany trying to cut a deal with regional banks for them to contribute to a fund to buy it out from GM.
BC Bob – Tomorrow’s unveiling of the “PPP Bad Bank” plan could be the straw that broke the Camel’s back, and if anyone says the words Pension Money in that speech we may even have a full scale riots.
“That is not a global meltdown, that is a meltdown of fools.”
J,
Well, if it’s a meltdown of fools it’s a global meltdown.
“bottom line ownning it is cheaper than renting”
Crock of s*it. I sold in 2005 and have rented since. Don’t need to go into the rent/purchase equation from the time I sold. Are you really a bean counter?
john, the issue may not be with you … are your neighbors prepared? what about those outside your town?
how many people do you think are in a position you are?
have you missed all the links to job losses? step out of the bubble, put down the booze, and open your eyes, buddy
Nope, umemployed people hang around with unemployed people so they think things are worse than they are, rich people hang out with rich people and think things are better than they are. I am in the middle. Some recession, at 3pm yesterday I had to waiting line at dunkin donuts, then wait in line at Kohls, heck I had to wait in line to have my BMW serviced. Who are all those people in line ahead of me spending. Why won’t they go away!!! This ain’t the great depression, heck this isn’t even 1991!!!
Clotpoll says:
February 17, 2009 at 9:14 am
John (67)-
You live in a magnificent delusion.
BC (74)-
“Well, if it’s a meltdown of fools it’s a global meltdown.”
This should be the new subtitle of NJ RE Report.
#76 is all the confirmation I need that John actually works on WS.
Got Kevlar?
My neighbors are way better off than I am. They bought their houses for like 200K and are civil servants. The average mortgage in the US is less than 100K and a large amount of people own their own homes. BC, had a bout of insanity where people bought 700K capes with 5% down, the rest of the world didn’t.
yikes says:
February 17, 2009 at 9:19 am
john, the issue may not be with you … are your neighbors prepared? what about those outside your town?
With no budget, California to cut 20,000 state jobs. 20% of state workers
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE51G0J420090217
“The average mortgage in the US is less than 100K and a large amount of people own their own homes.”
HMMM? Why was Bear/Lehman crushed? Citi/BAC nationalized? Why rewrite garbage loans?
I live in Somerset county. Do you know of any good credit unions/small banks in that area?
I want to move every single penny out of f’n BOA.
>>
Thanks in advance.
Haha,
OT from John’s post:
I’m always amazed when I see a S500 at the parking lot in Costco or a 5 series at a WalMart parking lot.
The stupidity of some of these folks is un-fcuking-believable.
John is walking a fine line between being his usual self and the dark abyss of Frank-dom.
I think I am gong to blog on the real housewives of NYS site for awhile or curl up with some GG, you guys are bumming me out. well at least if the recession gets bad enough I can book a nice spa vacation at the 4 seasons in St. Thomas to get away from it all.
#79 – John – BC, had a bout of insanity where people bought 700K capes with 5% down, the rest of the world didn’t
Then explain Dubai, Dublin, Shanghai, Catan, etc.
#79 John: If the average mtg in the U.S is less than 100k, than how come homeowner equity is at an all time low.
I know civil servants too, bought cheap houses, sucked all the equity out and spent on expensive cars vacations and all the rest.
Nex time you are up town take a walk by the mid-town south precint, BMW’s MB’s and Escalades all parked out front.
re# 79 – John Don’t for one second think the Civil Servant Bubble and the Property Tax Bubble are not going to pop too.
John what are you going to think when you see your neighbor the laid off teacher swinging a bag on the street in front of your house?
“at 3pm yesterday I had to waiting line at dunkin donuts, then wait in line at Kohls, heck I had to wait in line to have my BMW serviced.”
Just a typical WS day.
tosh [85],
Hungary, Poland, Ireland, GB, Spain, etc…
John missed that memo. It’s not reported at Dunkin Donuts.
i can imagine the thoughts running through the mind of all the new people who are here for the first time after Sunday’s NYT hit.
and we’re down 165 on the dow right out of the gate.
wonder if we’ll see dexter manley’s 72(00) flash on the screen today …
Even funnier, around 1993 when I bought a high milage mercedes sl convt and put a new paint job and sheepskins on it I really could not afford the repairs, the exhaust system went and it was 3K just for parts and I had around 300 bucks. Anyhow I get on the phones to all the junkyards and the one by Shea had a SLC just in that may have a good exhaust. Anyhow I run down their in my benz top down to junkyard making a ton of noice as my muffler and exhust had more holes in it than a stimulus plan and guy sells me whole used exhaust for $200 bucks, so there I am front seat folded down and top folded down with whole huge used exhuast hanging out on a beach blanket on my trunk, well I could not make it far and he gives me number of some dirty asian garage in flushing that agrees to put it on for $100, cash first. Now that was a funny site me driving a benz with around with a huge rusty exhaust system hanging out while making a ton of noise.
zieba says:
February 17, 2009 at 9:28 am
Haha,
OT from John’s post:
I’m always amazed when I see a S500 at the parking lot in Costco or a 5 series at a WalMart parking lot.
The stupidity of some of these folks is un-fcuking-believable.
John is walking a fine line between being his usual self and the dark abyss of Frank-dom.
Guys, this is all according to plan. Don’t the bi-weekly 201-K contributions take place today or some sh1t like that?
#76 John:This ain’t the great depression, heck this isn’t even 1991!!!
Nah, it is not 1991, its turning out to be a lot worse, although I do agree there is still a lot of denial out there.
As far as 1991 vs now, I was right in the middle of that one, very ugly.
However, I would say the use of credit back than was far less pervasive than now, I also think that perhaps Americans were smarter over all back than, and not living in denial.
I do know that I hear lots of people saying O-man is going to fix things, and it should turn around in a few months.
When asked why they believe that, the repsonse I usually get is because.
My bi-weekly is today, plus if you got a bonus on Friday as that was a popular day and you withold some or all for 401K match that goes in today. Today is one of the days I hope the market is way down.
Yikes [90],
OUCH. A quick baptism?
“if the recession gets bad enough I can book a nice spa vacation at the 4 seasons in St. Thomas to get away from it all.”
John actually has this correct, vacations are becoming dirt cheap now. Airfares are the lowest I have seen in 5+ years.
+1 for you John. Congrads!
#60 John: The average retail investor was a big money maker for the big wire houses.
Dow breaks 7700. Here we go.
btw no ppt in house today, this is all freestyle. lots of professional traders off this week and a lot of amatuers home on etrade and schwab who may panic and sell. great stuff for a wild day. barney franks stimulus plan may feel like a plane crash, bend over and prepare for a hard landing.
Yeah… Where is Bi and the PPT today. Anyone sneak a peak at FXP this morning? His calls are astoundingly bad. It’s one thing to be wrong half the time, but to be wrong about 99% of the time is a talent to be taken advantage of.
J,
You have to be a complete idiot, hoping to time a market decline for one bi-weekly contribution. I thought it didn’t matter, at least until you were 67?
I wonder how many 48 yr old’s, in Japan, uttered the same in 1990?
thanks in some part to SRS, SKF, and FXP I was able to enact my own personal Stimulous Package last weekend.
http://i180.photobucket.com/albums/x155/kedelbach/308/308side.jpg
Seller must be deep underwater on his huge house, 2 new Harleys and Mustang, so $25k took this fine piece of Magnum-PI memorabilia away.
Clot since you’re the one who turned me onto these sweet ETFs if you’re ever in the Windy City area I invite you to a day of Ferris Bueller-type shenanigans.
And I almost forgot. Only 14 points away from Bi’s SRS muzzle.
“lots of professional traders off this week”
Another crock of s*it. The world is imploding and professional traders are not at their desk? Where are they, at the Hampton’s, waiting in line to grab a summer rental? I guess one’s definition of “professional” varies greatly.
Nurburgringer (102):
Now don’t get too greedy ;)
Shorting is a fool’s game. It’s quite hard to fight the long-term trend of the market. Book your profit and get out. The crazy thing is that at some point, we will all go long and double up!
Bond Market saying Saks will soon join Fortunoffs!!!
SAKS INC NT 9.87500% 10/01/2011
Price (Ask) 69.254
Yield to Worst (Ask) 26.986%
The world is imploding and professional traders are not at their desk? Where are they?
According to John either in line getting crullers or a nifty new cardigan at Kohl’s!
actually the kids are off from school, lots of people on wall street is on vacation this week. in case you have not read the papers firms like MS and GS are now banks which now require a mandatory two week straight vacation for anyone who trades or touches cash.
Sean (87)-
Rub and a tug time.
“John what are you going to think when you see your neighbor the laid off teacher swinging a bag on the street in front of your house?”
I’ve been reading along for a few months now and not only do you make me consistently laugh at my desk, I get to sound reasonably informed as opposed to delusional when the inevitable economy conversations commence.
I’ll be honest- I don’t understand all the acronyms, and the stock advice is useless to me as I am thrilled to not be negative before my next paycheck. However, I’m where I have to be and can luckily smile through it- many times thanks to the comments I get to read here.
I really didn’t think Wall Streeter’s frequent either of these low brow joints. I suppose times have changed.
Stu – greedy, moi?
I’m not fighing anything. I was a poor college student in the dot-com run up, living in Germany for the US housing boom, and socked away a good chunk of cash for who knows what. Got my little bit of 401k into bonds last September, thankfully didn’t buy a house in NJ or PA in 2006, and now took a modest profit on $20k I’ve put in and out of the ETF over the last 4 months.
$25k for a very well maintained, mechanically solid (though due for a $3k cam belt service) Ferrari 308GTS QV is the current market level for the car.
If I was greedy I would have put my entire nest egg into ETFs, and would now be driving a Daytona ;)
I want to make the FXP chart my screensaver.
BTW, BC…I just got cold-called by your company. I told the guy I’m having too much fun with Shorty & Shiny to bet on whose paper hits 0 first.
as long as the ladies know how to work a pole, (mop, broom or the shinny type at scores) they should be ok. As long as caligula gets the first crack the peasants will be happy.
February 17, 2009 at 9:51 am
Sean (87)-
Rub and a tug time.
“John what are you going to think when you see your neighbor the laid off teacher swinging a bag on the street in front of your house?”
“lots of people on wall street is on vacation this week.”
J,
Is they? Hopefully, it’s not everybody you know. Those that went 110% long at the ultimate low, back in October.
Stu (103)-
I demand that Grim enforce the muzzle if we hit the number.
#108 John: Except they do not have banks yet.
“BTW, BC…I just got cold-called by your company.”
Clot,
You sure it wasn’t me?
Nur (102)-
I’ve booked the next donkey cart to Chicago. Should be there by opening day at Wrigley. BTW, I’m bringing Booyah. He likes sports.
Congrats!
BC (118)-
Not unless you’re about 24 y/o and clueless.
#108 John: Yep the kids are off this week, and more than a few that I know who would have been in the DR, or up sking in Montreal are home this week.
Kids doing old fashioned things like going to the movies, sleep overs, and OMG even bowling!!!
When will the PPT turn on the machines to buy S&P futures???
Clot [120],
Bingo.
BC (104)-
They’re all up on the roof, calculating whether the distance from there to the pavement = terminal velocity.
They probably can’t black box that right, either.
“The world is imploding and professional traders are not at their desk?”
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/ny-liacci-pg,0,5210574.photogallery
velocity
(114)-
This may replace “E Pluribus Unum” on the USD:
“As long as caligula gets the first crack the peasants will be happy.”
125-
Billy Joel on the sauce again?
200 point turnaround by days end. why, why not, it is just gambling at this point anyhow.
Clot (116):
“I demand that Grim enforce the muzzle if we hit the number.”
Actually, I’ve been thinking about this. Wouldn’t silencing Bi be detrimental to our financial futures? I personally see the silence of the Bi kind of like the shorting ban on financials. Ultimately, I would love to see how long he could go without blurting out something about SRS. I give it about 3 days, which in his life is a lifetime.
Stu (129)-
We all know how this movie ends. Why taunt the village idiot as the village burns to the ground?
Besides, he can find friendship and those of like mind at Kannekt.
7579 and a bounce.
where are all those clowns who said ‘this is the best buying opportunity ever!’
yeah, if you dont mind waiting 2 years for the market to bounce up over 10k.
where’s the stimulus package bounce?
Help!
Trying to bid on a house. asking is 297K. purchased for $257K in 2004. In 1999, house was sold for $110K. Comp in late 2008 sold for $235K. Assuming that the comp represents a 10% drop from peak, I am thinking of determining my bid as follows:
1.) take an additional 20 % off the comp and use that as the bid; or
2.) take the 1999 price and add 3% a year for last 10 years.
What do you suggest?
Even if we bid under either formula, owner will probably not budge since she has a mortgage of at least $207K.
7700, 7600, 7500….
new floors, new ceilings…
sl
graci Amigo!
of course the offer is also open to Grim – it is due in large part to this site that I am not shackled with an overpriced house right now (though I did mkae several serious, reasonable offers in ’06 thankfully the sellers were of the easily-insulted type).
We’ll drink and dine at Bin 36 in Chicago. My best friend’s brother is the head chef/part owner and will be happy to see us. Says sales are WAY off from a year ago, they’ll appreciate the bidness.
Nur (102)-
I’ve booked the next donkey cart to Chicago. Should be there by opening day at Wrigley. BTW, I’m bringing Booyah. He likes sports.
Congrats!
Clot 124
Terminal velocity
For an average human, terminal velocity would be reached after falling about 1800 ft. Given 12.5 ft/floor, this means you need to jump from the 150th floor. Terminal velocity would be about 120 mph.
In a “dive” position a human body could probably reach terminal velocity in about 1200 ft or form the 96th floor
In NYC there are only 2 options available. They are the Empire state building of the BOA Tower.
the observation deck of the Empire state building would be a sufficient launch point. but unfortunately you would have to jump from the actual top of the BOA Tower, as the top floor is not high enough to reach terminal velocity.
Note that to reach terminal velocity jumping from either of these towers would require the person to maintain a “dive” position for the duration of the fall.
Must buy For all Firearm enthusiasts here,
The New BackUp Commercial
Isn’t the empire state a stepped structure?
Those who try usually land on the outcroppings around the 86th and 40th floors.
Russia and China sign 20 year oil supply deal:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/International_Business/Russia_China_sign_25_billion_energy_deal/rssarticleshow/4144419.cms
the monmouth county NJ property tax data site has been down for two days now. Does anyone know a good one that is comparable for past sales and tax data?
Clot,
a few other international options
Height building
2,313 Burj Dubai, Dubai, UAE
1,667 Taipei 101, Taipei, Taiwan
1,483 Petronas Tower 1, Kuala Lumpur,
1,483 Petronas Tower 2, Kuala Lumpur,
1,451 Sears Tower, Chicago
1,381 Jin Mao Building, Shanghai
1,362 Two International Finance Centre, Hong Kong
1,283 CITIC Plaza, Guangzhou, China
1,260 Shun Hing Square, Shenzhen, China
1,250 Empire State Building, New York
The roof of the WTC was 1300 ft, unfortunately that option is no longer available
Also note, that such a fall takes about 10 seconds to reach the ground, plenty of time to have second thoughts
This one is for Bi, some stock market rally in China do to the Chinese Stimulus Plan, looks more like the Chinese Version of the PPT.
One analyst estimates that more than 1/3 of the total “new” lending (assuming that the loans were truly extended) may have gone into the Chinese stock market.
Chinese companies may be using record bank lending to invest in stocks, fueling a rally that’s made the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index the world’s best performer this year, according to Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co.
As much as 660 billion yuan ($97 billion) may have been converted by companies into term deposits or used to buy equities, Li Huiyong, Shanghai-based analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, said in a phone interview today, citing money supply figures.
China’s banks lent a record 1.62 trillion yuan in January as part of a government drive to stimulate the world’s third- largest economy, while M2, the broadest measure of money supply, climbed 18.8 percent from a year earlier. The Shanghai Composite has surged 29 percent since the start of 2009, compared with a 10 percent decline in the MSCI World Index.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeaBH8CUU9NY&refer=home
#132,
Either you take the owners problems as your problem and pay asking price (minus whatever %)
OR
Take the 1999 sales price and add 3% appreciation rate/year and offer that.
zieba,
good point about the empire state building.
http://maps.live.com/default.aspx?v=2&FORM=LMLTCP&cp=qsrmr98v10ym&style=b&lvl=2&tilt=-90&dir=0&alt=-1000&scene=18471470&phx=0&phy=0&phscl=1&encType=1
that leaves the BOA tower in NYC, otherwise head for the sears tower in chicago
stu
It would be interesting to look at Japanese news sources during the first three years of their ‘Lost Decade’ to determine how optimistic their media was about a recovery that was never to come.
I agree, unfortuantly i dont speak japanese :(
Sean,
Thanks for the FXP info. Very interesting, especially considering the inverse performance of the Honk Kong exchange.
Honk Kong…Funny!
I also heard some dude on Bloomberg radio a few weeks back say that the cause of the Chinese rally was wild speculation and that the speculative money would run out soon enough.
Our beloved DOW Jones is now worth 7.86 ounces of Shiny.
ChiFi, John,
Got Gold?
“It would be interesting to look at Japanese news sources during the first three years of their ‘Lost Decade’ to determine how optimistic their media was about a recovery that was never to come.”
I do know that every financial pundit, here, was critizing them regarding their bailout/stimulus plans. We argued that allowing the dead to cling on would only prolong the crisis. The best option was for creative destruction. The same pundits that are now cheering here, for bailouts, injections, loan modifications, stimulus, etc..
Don’t do as I do, do as I say.
Make ]147],
41X, back in 2001. Hey, invest for the long term. Thankfully, I did.
terminal velocity is not necessary, saw a women once jump from fifth floor did a nose dive no hands and her noggin cracked sidewalk, of course her crushed mellon was on her back and she left more juice than a rare steak at peter lugars but she acheived her goal of a 100% liklihood of death from a 50 foot fall. actually, I am getting hungry for steak now.
I wonder if the PTA realizes that Pelosi & “O’s” stimulus plan for Teacher pay and benefit protection, involves placing their children in indentured servitude for life. There is no free ride when you’re bankrupt. Amazing how Private Sector loses jobs, and then has to also pay for job preservation of Public Sector. Just once I would like to see pain spread evenly. Like cut salary & benefits to preserve jobs, both Public & Private.
http://njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2845884&id=999999
now here is a house in glen rock for 999K that seem like a good deal. but when you do a little diggging taxes are 22K a year, almost 2K a month. funny thing is they don’t put re taxes in nj ads as if they don’t exist. 999K for 12K in taxes is fairly normal, 22K is nutso.
John [152],
It’s very competitive here in North Jersey and we’re insulated from the rest of the Nation. There will always be demand for desirable properties in certain neighborhoods; especially in prestigous Bergen County. If one can’t afford to live there, then one needs to consider a “lesser” town or perhaps even out of state. In case you’re not aware, certain towns “expect” certain people. I know this is all true because a professional member of the NAR told me so.
A comment that one of my clients sent to the WSJ in response to an OP-ED. He forwarded it to me…..
Prof. Bhide’s suggestion that we be more deliberate and use more proven methods to address the current economic mess is certainly reasonable, and I would expect everyone but the most rabid left-winger to agree.
How about the simple idea of a massive, full-year tax holiday on personal income? If consumer spending is/has been the driver of the US economy, why not put more money in the consumer’s hands? If we simply eliminated all personal income tax at the federal level, the federal deficit would balloon by some $1.2 trillion, but that’s not substantially different than the “stimulus package” Congress just passed.
The difference in the two approaches is simple. Democrats/liberals want government to spend the money and conservative (and all too few Republicans) want individuals to spend money. This is a philosophical difference that is driven by the liberal’s view that a few “elites” are best able to drive the economy in the correct direction, versus the conservative’s belief that when individual actors make millions of independent decisions (as they each pursue their own selfish interests) that, in aggregate, the economy is driven in the correct direction. Clearly, history has shown without any doubt to anyone but a half-wit or crackpot that the economic fascism that liberals embrace today has led to highly inefficient economies and, worse, has often been the handmaiden of political fascism of various sorts — and the consequent human suffering that can be easily measured in the tens of millions of avoidable deaths. Yet, at times, the world still seems to want to embrace the paternalism offered by modern liberals, which is quite puzzling given the common human condition of being reluctant to give up liberty if one has already experience that liberty.
Back to the tax holiday idea, obviously this would never happen, whether Democrats or Republicans are in charge in Washington. They both would be very concerned about the problem of Americans actually enjoying the idea of keeping what they earn. Hence, politicians would never use the more efficient economic stimulant of a full-year tax holiday because of the unsavory side-effect of people “getting used to it.” What Democrats in power today don’t seem to appreciate is the idea that there are a lot of Americans uncomfortable today with the over-indulgent, non-stimulating spending in the “stimulus package” because of their fear of Washington “getting used to it.”
If Democrats (who should change their party’s name to the Demagogues to reflect their actual nature) truly believe in the Keynesian notion of relying on government elites to direct an economy that has gone astray because the untrustworthy masses can’t seem to get it right, then it is especially nauseating that they decided to hold the US economy hostage by linking their pet projects to the supposedly stimulating portions of the “stimulus package.” It defies any logic to suggest that spending $30M in San Francisco to enhance the habitat of some species of mouse is an economic stimulus. Maybe it’s a worthwhile discussion to have as a society to decide whether it would endure the economic cost of protecting a particular species from extinction, but that is not a discussion to have in the context of an emergency spending bill aimed at avoiding a “catastrophe.” I wonder if liberals would be as forgiving if a Republican president or Congress insisted on linking funding for a national defense initiative (a new “Star Wars,” for example) to an emergency funding bill related to disaster relief following a devastating earthquake in San Francisco. Not very forgiving, I suspect.
John [150]
You are the Ernest Hemingway of morbid.
(…and just as funny as Hemingway, and to be perfectly clear, that amounts to “not very”)
154
You have Rush Limbaugh as a client?
Can I score some pills?
vodka (135)-
Should be easy for a broker. They’ve been in a dive position for quite a while now.
I’d also wager the “cannonball” position would do the trick, too.
“Note that to reach terminal velocity jumping from either of these towers would require the person to maintain a “dive” position for the duration of the fall.”
Looks like Mrs. Watanabe is getting lopped off at the other end.
Mrs. Watanabe shouldn’t chase the trade.
John – Glen Rock is the red headed step child of Ridgewood, you might as well move back to Jerome Avenue because you will be treated by the Ridegwoodians as if you were living in Da Bronx when you fill out the application to use their beach or pool.
grim says:
February 17, 2009 at 7:50 am
Still in Dallas, I’ll be here until Wednesday.
Dude – with you it is always Same Sh!t different address….
7200 in perspective:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SZrn7Nvk84I/AAAAAAAAIR0/JtRybNR9QD0/s1600-h/longerdow.png
interesting to see if it will get real choppy around this area for a bit.
News flash: federal agents and SEC raid Stanford Investments in Texas. Allege massive fraud.
Outofstater says:
February 17, 2009 at 8:12 am
#24 Coffee all over my laptop. Thanks, CLot.
People on this blog have all kinds of problems with involuntary bodily actions such as dropping or spilling coffee. Spitting at the computer screen. Evacuating their bowels other than on the toilet.
People – please consult profession medical assistance.
What? CD’s don’t yield 11% per annum?
Other than ridgewood what BC towns are the uber snooty ones, I am actually in montvale for a weekend this spring and want to look around. When the bottom comes I want to buy only in the best. However, Ridgewood does not sound to snooty, isn’t that by the tanks on the LIE in Queens?
Sean says:
February 17, 2009 at 11:39 am
John – Glen Rock is the red headed step child of Ridgewood, you might as well move back to Jerome Avenue because you will be treated by the Ridegwoodians as if you were living in Da Bronx when you fill out the application to use their beach or pool.
veto says:
February 17, 2009 at 9:16 am
BC, Sean say ” RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process”
Thanks for the heads up fellas. Can i please get a dumbed down translation? FX is over my head. I never understood those tedious triangular parity arbitrage calcs.
v: it is a box, not a triangle
chifi 164.
the onion thing scares me the most…
sl
#160 sean: GR was always a nice town, actually was originally part of Ridgewood at one time.
The taxes there were always incredibly high, also lots of busy streets in the town.
And if you think the Ridgewoodians look down their noses at the GR’s, they find the people from Oradell down right scary.
Grim,
Could you tell me the status of 18 Carol Rd in Westfield? It was MLS 26004787 at one point. Thanks.
RayC
anyone seen ReTard?
You know, all this talk of terminal velocity, etc etc..
sl
sl (171)-
Hey, don’t start getting people’s hopes up.
BC Bob says:
February 17, 2009 at 9:18 am
“That is not a global meltdown, that is a meltdown of fools.” J, Well, if it’s a meltdown of fools it’s a global meltdown. “bottom line ownning it is cheaper than renting” Crock of s*it. I sold in 2005 and have rented since. Don’t need to go into the rent/purchase equation from the time I sold. Are you really a bean counter?
Bost: GET WITH THE PROGRAM! The argument isn’t owning versus renting.
The new argument is LEASES SIGNED IN 2009 are cheaper than LEASES SIGNED IN 2005.
41X, back in 2001. Hey, invest for the long term. Thankfully, I did.
Bc,
I eagerly awaiting the hyperinflationary creative destruction.
How long do you think before I run for President of Albania?
John says:
February 17, 2009 at 9:21 am
Why won’t they go away!!! This ain’t the great depression, heck this isn’t even 1991!!!
Clotpoll says:
February 17, 2009 at 9:14 am
John (67)- You live in a magnificent delusion.
JJ: When I signed by lease they had to pull a credit check on me. There were shocked and relieved that it came back at 772. My repsonse was what is big fcuking deal? It is a g-ddamend rental! I guess they have seen a lot of sh!t?! They wouldn’t take straight checks either. The must really be gun-shy….
“The new argument is LEASES SIGNED IN 2009 are cheaper than LEASES SIGNED IN 2005.”
Chi,
How true. I don’t have a lease but my 2009 rent is now $100 less then when I began renting, 9/05.
Because the BEST YouTube videos are less than 30 seconds long…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P36x8rTb3jI&feature=related
“How long do you think before I run for President of Albania?”
Make,
I submit my app for Treas Sec.
#166 John: If you are in Montvale, but want more snotty, than look in Woodcliff Lake.
Snotty towns also include Franklin Lake, Allendale, Wyckoff, Saddle River and Upper Saddle River.
Please do not let the Upper fool you, as far as snootiness and wealth Saddle River is the more expensive/snootier one.
You could also look at River Vale, which considers itself superior to Montvale;however, you must be in upper River Vale, as lower River Vale is considered lower class/blue collar.
Alos when considering either Woodcliff Lake or Montvale, you must be located west of Kinderkamack Rd, as the eastern portion of these towns are considered lower class.
Also you can chose wannabe snotty towns, such as Oradell and River Edge.
However with the housing bust all of this information I have provided is no longer applicable.
Board of Directors to Trump:
“You’re fired”.
#171 Still: He is out collecting pine cones.
3b (179)-
Pretty soon, a roof over one’s head will be a status symbol.
My 3yo neighbor (who happens to be Stephon Marbury’s nephew), jumped out of the first floor window and was perfectly fine.
A few months later, he broke his arm falling off the crib.
He is quite a character just like his uncle.
Lard (183)-
Does he have a neck tattoo yet?
The significance of 7,200 on the Dow:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SZrn7Nvk84I/AAAAAAAAIR0/JtRybNR9QD0/s1600-h/longerdow.png
These guys are also predicting a gold/dow ratio of 2:1, $2,700 at the bottom @ 5,400.
Johun if you are planning on taking da Train to Hoboken, then you want to be near to the Main line it runs more often than the Pascack Valley line which runs up to Montvale.
I like Allendale FYI, Crestwood lake is nicer than Ridgewood’s lake butis not as nice as Franklin’s lake.
http://www.allendale.org/graphics/crestwood%20beach.jpg
John, try to beat that!
183 RL
That’s because kids are like 80% cartilage…not calcified into bone yet… they bounce…we break.
sl
Did anyone stick an ammonia salt under the nose of the ppt yet?
sl
“These guys are also predicting a gold/dow ratio of 2:1, $2,700 at the bottom @ 5,400.”
zieba,
That’s my target, 2,500/5,000. However, many think I’m nuts. They are looking for 1:1. Hope they are right.
#186 sean: And Allendale has the train to NYC, not that it matters any more.
still_looking – I take two 1000 milligram Calcium supplements daily and I chew on my dogs bone when he isn’t looking. My bones don’t break easily, I can fall down all day on an 11,000 ft mountain on my Rossingnol skis at still make it to the bottom for happy hour.
#182 clot:Pretty soon, a roof over one’s head will be a status symbol.
A roof over your head will be the new black.
BC,
I don’t know what the policy on links here is but I enjoy reading through Jesse’s stuff daily:
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
The Economist:
America’s banking crisis
Worse than Japan?
Look carefully and the answer could be yes
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13110352
make money 174,
if you need someone for your cabinet i will volunteer. always up for a new adventure. Although i only accept salary/payment in shiny metal
John, top notch in Bergan Alpine, Saddle River, Englewood(East Hill) actually any town on east hill, Franklin Lakes, and Ridgewood(Sort of but not as high up as the other towns). Anything else is a pretender, not to say they are not nice towns but the people who live there believe they have more money than they do. Saddle River and the East Hill are probably some of the ritziest areas in Metro NYC, nothing less than $2 million, actually during the boom an acre of land could go for somewhere between 1-2 million. Franklin Lakes follows closely behind but is still considerably less and then Ridgewood is somewhere behind Franklin Lakes as there are much smaller homes, FL starts at $750k and that is for a shack on a busy road.
Not sure if this was posted earlier. I think Simon is right on.
Bill Moyer Interview with Simon Johnson
Former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), MIT Sloan School of Management professor and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Simon Johnson examines President Obama’s plan for economic recovery.
Zieba,
I go 1 step further. I think we drop to between 3500 and 4000 (i.e 1995)
morpheus says:
February 17, 2009 at 10:20 am
Help!
Trying to bid on a house. asking is 297K. purchased for $257K in 2004. In 1999, house was sold for $110K. Comp in late 2008 sold for $235K. Assuming that the comp represents a 10% drop from peak, I am thinking of determining my bid as follows:
1.) take an additional 20 % off the comp and use that as the bid; or
2.) take the 1999 price and add 3% a year for last 10 years.
Need to know more. how is the neighborhood? foreclosures? are you the biggest house in the neighborhood? smallest?
do you see yourself there for 10 or more years? do you have about a 50k cash cushion in the bank AFTER purchasing the house, just in case you and your wife both lose your jobs? when you move in, how much money will you need to invest for changes? 5k? 10k? 20k?
i would say start at 200?
albani: good fcking sh!t…..to be clear, you can review my posts from December to confirm where I stand on this issue. You know I need to keep my yap zipped on this…..Best!
zieba [194],
Thanks.
3B [179],
Don’t forget Ramsey! It falls into the snooty category.
#197 jcer: It is a new world out there.
Right now as per njmls, Franklin Lakes has 110 single family homes for sale starting at 379K, lots of listings under 600K. (don’t know what kind of condition they are in.)
Saddle River has a total of 54 homes for sale, which is alot for such a small town. Prices starting at 900K.
Also quite a few Saddle River houses in foreclosure. Check out the Bergen County Sheriff’s website which lists upcoming foreclossures, you will see them in SR, as well as many of the so called best towns in Bergen Co.
#203 gary: No sorry gary it does not, or did not (please keep in mind this is all in flux as the housing market continues to decline).
Ramsey is/ was onsidered a good town, but not snotty, unless of course comparing it to Midland Park (HORRORS!!!), or Mahwah.
#164 Since when is laughing out loud a medical problem? I think we could use all the laughs we can get. I’ll just keep some paper towels handy.
As for snooty towns, um, why bother? What is the appeal of living with a bunch of people who are convinced they are better than you? And better how? More money? Please. I haven’t yet seen an armored car following a hearse, have you?
Any recommendations on where to buy the yellow shiny stuff physical?
(seeking for information purposes only…agree to hold j.b. harmless for any information good, bad or otherwise)
ouch, look at this nasty little market, and i thought i was smart buying uco at 7.50 on last week’s massive dip. i guess oil is going to zero in a straight line then. hmmm, i see.
wheres the recession?
Speaking of armored cars:
I was driving NJTPike North this morning on my way to the office and passed a Brinks security armored truck pulled over on the shoulder. Didn’t make much of it but thought about the protocol in place to verify whether a stop was green, like a flat tire or red, like a hijacking.
Anyhow, eight miles up the road I drove past another armored truck on the shoulder, also pulled over.
Strange.
Though not as much as fed’s blocking off the express portion of the turnpike at the 80 junction to let a five armored car convoy flanked by countless fed cars through on their way to GWB.
I want a snooty town as last time RE bottomed I made the mistake of going for most money off, rather than best neighborhood. Plus I don’t know my neighbors where I live now. I don’t want to move to another town like that. I noticed snootier towns have welcome wagons. Plus I am actually better than everyone else at least in a uppidity town the people will be a little closer to my greatness.
John #210…
“Plus I am actually better than everyone else at least in a uppidity town the people will be a little closer to my greatness.”
I think you will be very disappointed. There is a good chance that the uppity town people won’t be much of a match to your greatness.
thanks for the tips. I plan on having fun with a few realtors. stuff like ask for first five year RE taxes paid by seller, ugly carpets and drapes redone so place does not look like a whore house, fun stuf in general. I am not buying till 2011 but want to scope out prices today.
I wish that all these companies doing layoffs would implement salary reductions first. Problem is – people (at the top, no doubt) can’t even handle a 5% paycut, being hocked to the hilt as they are. When we get laid off because our boss has a 5x annual salary mortgage, it becomes our problem.
All these layoffs only serve to further stratify our society with the rich and the poor.
Salaries are usually the last to change in times of inflation or deflation – the lagging indicator.
I still maintain the rule of thirds is the way to go, and everyone who didn’t obey this rule should be blown out of the water. (Ideally, John is right and this should only affect the fools – in a truly capitalist society.) By the way, does a truly capitalist society even exist?
(And we’ll just pretend when I say the rule of thirds I’m talking about GROSS pay instead of NET pay…which is still foolish.)
re#204 3b,Jacer – back in 1997 I once looked at a lakefront home in Franklin lakes going for 350k as is, prices will be going back down to that range for the nicer places not just shacks on High Mountain Road.
John if you want snooty and a place where your larger than life persona would fit in try Wyckoff. I have seem fist fights break out in that town over who has the best manicured lawn.
#212: Why are you leaving LI? Have you run this by your wife and kids?
Grim – Are you in touch with Admitphd, who came to our first GTG? Would be nice if he can come to next GTG.
#214 sean: Wyckoff is nice, but it does have its deliverance country area, as in the Presidents street section of town.
#213 wallies: There were a lot of fools in this debacle, and there were people on the bottom just as foolish as people at the top.
Kettle,
eveyone gets paid in Lek. BC is in charge of money supply. You’re in charge of energy and a top economist. CLot can easily run the Dep’t of homeland security.
We’ll just borrow our constitution, it hasn’t been used in Washington in years.
3b I had an office in Wyckoff for four years off near the Abmas Farm and petting Zoo, there is not too much deliverance to be found there anymore they have been knocked down and priced out.
#220 sean: Did not know that, have not been up that way in some time. Hey the way things are going, they will be priced back in!!!
wallies 213
rule of thirds….
salary reduction is a nogo. Everyone from the CEO to the janitor is leveraged to the hilt. A 10% cut for any of the employees would be a personal disaster.
And that is the terrible beauty of the current system. Everyone looks happy and rich one the way up. But the moment we turn the peak, the executive is just as vulnerable if not more so then the janitor.
There will be no escaping the pain of this event whether you are a wall street BSD or a janitor like myself. The only ones who have a shot at escaping the majority of the pain are the super wealthy who have made appropriate preparations.
I would even suggest that the janitor has less to lose and will probably see less pain then the executive in the long run.
renting,
Holler at Peter Schiff or someone at EuroPac. Perth Mint in Australia. They store it for free and their gov’t doesn’t have the history of ours in confiscating shiny.
Counterpoint to my useless anecdata on the lines at Chopt Salad (they slice and dice your salad for just $10, and yes, the lines are still long).
The line at the Subway in the subway (really, there is a Subway sandwich place at 53rd/Madison) is out the door! Longer than the Abercrombie & Fitch line on Fifth Ave. for sure. Lots of floppy haired banker types going for the $5 footlongs. Honestly, you can’t get a nitrate-filled lunch for $5 even at the lower end delis around Midtown so five bucks is quite a deal. Not sure if its more telling that the banker dudes are cutting back on their lunch spending, or, that they have so much free time now, they can actually step out of the office for lunch.
Disclaimer: I have no evidence that aforementioned Subway customers were bankers by trade, aside from the floppy haircuts. They could be former bankers who are now working retail. That would explain the need (and time) for a low cost lunch. There are more consultants than bankers in this part of town anyway.
Who says there is no good news?
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Lured by lower mortgage rates, potential home buyers are window shopping a little more at new housing developments, but the builders are still pessimistic about closing the deal, the National Association of Home Builders said Monday. The home builders’ sentiment index improved for the first time since September, rising one point to 9 from a historic low of 8 in January. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers improved to 11 from 7 in January. However, the index of expected sales over the next six months fell to a record low of 15 in February from 17 in January. Current sales rose to 7 from a record-low of 6.
219 make,
when do i start!
Where’s Bi?
Make (219):
Can I be the Master of Cheapness or the Frugal in Chief. Heck, I would even be the Hamburgaler if that is what it takes.
“Where’s Bi?”
Stu,
I hired him, he’s digging.
219 make,
when do i start!
When shiny hits $3,000. It looks like pretty soon.
my wife likes that all the houses are new in NJ. A million dollar home on LI is a complete run down pigstye, filty dirty 70’s orange kitchens and ugly wall paper everywhere and needed 200K in repairs. NJ people seem to do new kitchens and baths fairly often. My favorite long island wreck I saw the women told me she bought it as a fixer upper 30 years ago and raised 5 kids, she then proudly stated she didn’t so much as paint a wall or fix a faucet in her 30 years there. The carpert on steps were completely worn through in middle and she even wore off the wood finish and he backsteps fell off and she had a plank. She was asking 800K and got it.
I know plenty of peeps in large companies who have taken a 10% salary reduction within the last few months.
Also, saw a scam today that I haven’t witness since the late 80s downturn. Two down and out looking guys going into small businesses and ask them for business cards.
If you aren’t familiar with it, its a way to stay on unemployment without looking for a job. They usually accept business cards as proof that you tried.
today is the last day for shorts to cover with some profits. this down market has dragged down more than i expected. nevertheless, i wouldn’t be surprised to see capitulation later today.
#230 John: You are spenking in past tense. Those days are over.
And I don’t believe there is that much difference between NNJ and LI.
I saw lots of run down crap in Massapequa and Setauket over the years, as well as the ugly cookie cutter McMansions.
Anyhow McM’s are so passe now.
Clot…since you mention Mike M. a while back, I check his site every now and then…did you ever do one of these live calls?
from his site: Invite as many friends and family as you would like. We have opened this call up to 1,000 spots. That’s the maximum, and I expect it to be tested for this call.
Here is the link to register. There is no charge – https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/679785138
For those of you that write blogs or operate websites, feel free to share this with everyone. It is that important!
#232 bi: Capitulation of what?
#232 bi: “Capitulation of what?”
Capitulation of Bi’s opinion, no doubt.
3b, I still look now and then, the homes aren’t selling but they are still asking 2006 prices in original 1955 condition, at least in NJ they are asking 2006 prices and they are remodeled. By 2011 when I am looking people will be in the forced sell mode.
make (219)-
What is Albania’s largest export?
Stolen Russian military hardware?
WOW, I can’t wait to raid my attic!!!
’80s fashion is back!
Marc Jacobs parties like it’s ’85, Timberlake dusts off his Bedazzler, and Betsey Johnson proves girls just wanna have fun at Fashion Week
Q: What is Albania’s largest export?
A: Cell phone stores in Brighton Beach, Brooklyn
at this point, i do feel oil is very attractive. all disclaimers apply.
bi (232)-
Funny; we’re looking for you to capitulate later today, too.
“…nevertheless, i wouldn’t be surprised to see capitulation later today.”
SRS = 90 = bye, bye bi
3b (233)-
Can I assume that “spenking” is some hybrid of speaking while wanking?
Please, everyone refrain from onion comments here:
“You are spenking in past tense.”
#240 John: Brighton Beach is Russian Ukraninian.
Pelham Bay Pelham Pkwy/Morris Pk in the Bronx big Albanian areas.
Hunter (234)-
Yes, I have listened to several of his free calls. Depeche Mode concerts could be more fun. :)
Be prepared to sit awhile. When Morgan gets really fired up, he can go for 4-5 hours. If he starts in on his food/water hoarding rants, those alone can go for 20-30 minutes…enough time to make yourself a sandwich and take a piss.
#243 clot:Can I assume that “spenking” is some hybrid of speaking while wanking.
Should of been speaking, but in John’s case, spenling might be more appropriate.
#246Should of been speaking, but in John’s case, spenling might be more appropriate.
SPENKING!!!
It’s ok, John.
Timmmay spenks a lot, too.
How to Lower Unemployment
THE Czech Republic is offering immigrant workers who’ve lost their jobs €500 and a free plane ticket if they leave voluntarily. The Czech government expects 12,000 foreigners to lose their jobs, and claims to be concerned that rising unemployment (currently an enviable 6.8%) will force immigrants to turn to crime.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2009/02/how_to_lower_unemployment.cfm
does anyone knwo where i can get Re data for each county (median sales and historical data)? I know i can get town by town data from NJ.com, but that is to granular and to much data…
thanks
I like to capitulate into an onion.
John #152,
Info on 2845884 (not that I think you’re actually buying…)
126 LOWELL RD
Current Year Taxes: $24,020.51
SOLD: $899,000 4/13/2004
Mortgage $150,000 6/24/2004
ACT $1,050,000 10/15/2008
PCH $999,000 1/7/2009
#251- post of the day.
Guaranteed Drop in Housing Prices Leads 2009 Economic Predictions
Real U.S. housing prices will fall another 15 to 20 percent in the next five years, mostly during the next year or two, said Erik Hurst, V. Duane Rath Professor of Economics and Neubauer Family Faculty Fellow.
“That is a take-it-to-the-bank prediction,” Hurst promised during the Chicago Booth 2009 Business Forecast at the Hyatt Regency Chicago on December 3. “Historical national, state, and city housing data predict housing booms, with average price increases of 55 percent, are followed 100 percent of the time by housing busts, with an average price decline of 30 percent. Supply always adjusts in the long run. As you expand supply, prices are pushed down,” he said.
Continued housing devaluation could cause more mortgage defaults, further pressuring bank balance sheets and further slowing the economy in 2009, and uncertainty about lending will potentially lengthen the current recession, Hurst said. “It might take a year and a half to get this uncertainty, which is passed through to consumers, resolved from the economy,” he said.
The good news is that government economists are much better today at managing recessions, Hurst said. “For those of us who are academic economists, this is what we do,” he said. “This is game time for us. This is what our work has been preparing us for during the last 20 years.”
Hurst and Michael Mussa, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, agreed unemployment will continue to rise to about 7.5-8 percent. That rate will settle in mid-2009, but its subsequent decline will be gradual, creating “significant margins of slack” in the U.S. economy through 2010 and into 2011, Mussa said.
Real GDP will drop two percent between mid-2008 and mid-2009, but the economy will recover during the second half of 2009, Mussa said. “The key assumption underlying the present economic forecast is that, with the aid of continued policy activism, credit markets will not return to the extreme turbulence of September and October 2008, but rather will continue to work back toward normal operation over coming months,” he said.
Between mid-2008 and mid-2009, real consumer spending will decline two percent — the largest decline in real consumption spending in any postwar recession, Mussa said. “This decline reflects the powerful forces that will retard the normally vigorous advance of consumer spending: falling employment, very sluggish growth of household disposable income, and declining net worth due to falling home values and equity prices,” he said.
Global economic conditions have triggered feelings of humiliation, anxiety, and mistrust that will cause tremendous political instability in 2009, said Marvin Zonis, professor emeritus of business administration. “Countries without regularly scheduled elections or with fake elections have no mechanism for the peaceful expression of political rage,” Zonis said.
Marking the 50th anniversary of the Tibetan rebellion and the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown, China will face “the year of unrest” in 2009, he said. “Some of the unrest will be driven by those important anniversaries,” Zonis said. “But most of the strikes, riots, and demonstrations will be driven by economic unrest driven by rising unemployment, property seizures, and economic hardship.”
In the United States, the “soft power” the Bush administration has been so unsuccessful at exercising will be vastly more effective under President-elect Barack Obama, a former University of Chicago Law School instructor, Zonis said. “Chicago will succeed in winning the 2016 Olympic bid because of this massive increase in the esteem in which the United States is held for having elected Barack Obama,” he said.
2:40PM President Obama delivers remarks and signs the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.
Bi – how will the markets react?
I want to do the opposite of your call just like George Costanza.
Costanza Theory as a guide to personal finance.
You can’t get this stuff anywhere else.
#254 chgo: Their unemploymwnt projections appear to be quite low, especially in light of where the rate is today.
Anybody know how good our extradition deals are with Antigua and Barbuda?
I’m guessing it’s not so great, since that’s where all the internet gambling is.
NEW YORK (AP) — Federal regulators on Tuesday charged Texas financier R. Allen Stanford and three of his firms with a “massive” fraud that centered around high-interest-rate certificates of deposit, and raided some of the companies’ offices.
In a complaint filed in federal court in Dallas, the Securities and Exchange Commission alleged Stanford orchestrated a fraudulent investment scheme centered on an $8 billion CD program that promised “improbable and unsubstantiated high interest rates.”
Stanford’s assets, along with those of the three companies, were frozen. Stanford’s firms include Antigua-based Stanford International Bank, broker-dealer Stanford Group Co. and investment adviser Stanford Capital Management, which are both based in Houston.
The bank’s chief financial officer, James Davis, and Stanford Financial Group’s chief investment officer, Laura Pendergest-Holt, were also charged in the complaint.
U.S. District Court Judge Reed O’Connor has appointed a receiver to handle the frozen assets.
The charges come amid an investigation that has lasted more than three months and included the SEC, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the U.S. brokerage industry’s self-policing body, and the Florida Office of Financial Regulation. Investigators visited the Florida offices of Stanford Group last month.
Stanford Group did not immediately return calls seeking comment.
Alfredo Perez, a spokesman for the U.S. Marshal’s Service in Houston, confirmed that agents raided Stanford’s office in Houston Tuesday morning, but he did not have any other immediate comment.
The SEC alleged Stanford and his businesses misrepresented the safety of the deposits, claiming the bank reinvested client funds in liquid financial instruments to help return profits on investments sharply higher than average rates of similar products.
“Stanford and the close circle of family and friends with whom he runs his businesses perpetrated a massive fraud based on false promises, and fabricated historical return data to prey on investors,” Linda Chatman Thomsen, director of the SEC’s division of enforcement, said in a statement.
The SEC also accuses Stanford of running a second scheme tied to sales of a mutual fund product, which allegedly used false historical performance data to grow the program from less than $10 million in 2004 to more than $1 billion. The alleged fraud helped generate $25 million in fees for Stanford Group in 2007 and 2008, according to the SEC.
Stanford, 58, is one of the most prominent businessmen in the Caribbean, with investment advisers around the world helping him grow a personal fortune estimated at $2.2 billion by Forbes magazine.
His Stanford International Bank Ltd. said deposits surged from $624 million in 1999 to $8.4 billion in December. The bank is based in the twin-island Caribbean nation of Antigua and Barbuda, which has carved out a niche as a tax haven and offshore base for Internet gambling.
Stanford has deep roots in Texas, where he graduated from Baylor University, and still speaks with a slight twang. But he travels in different circles now — knighted in 2006 by the islands’ government, Stanford is known there as “Sir Allen.” And last year he shook up the staid world of professional cricket by bankrolling the purse in a $20 million winner-take-all match in Antigua between England and a West Indies select team.
The England and Wales Cricket Board said it has suspended negotiations for a new sponsorship deal amid the allegations.
albani:
I have the girl for you.
The niece of the woman who is the daughter of my great-grandfather’s cousin just found me on Facebook (not a joke). In other words, my great-grandfather’s cousin’s granddaughter. Her maiden name is the same as mine, and it is very rare.
She lives in Stamford CT and sells Boobi Brown makeup, and she is completely smokin’……
chicagofinance says:
February 17, 2009 at 2:19 pm
She lives in Stamford CT and sells Boobi Brown makeup, and she is completely smokin’……
cripes……Bobbi Brown….Freudian slip…..
albani: Can I volunter to be secretary of Albanian Immoveable Property?
Also, can I run the country’s ponzi….er hedge fund?
We are going to be rich!
http://videos.bechtel.com/public/Albania.wmv
3B, Sean, et al,
What makes a town “snooty” or “snotty”?
House prices?
The inhabitants?
Rich
You can kidnap your cousin, take her to Albania and marry her.
Rich, the quality of law care usually does it.
What is the traditional dish served at Albanian weddings?
lawn care that is.
Assets in Free Fall
Over the past year or so, I’ve used imagery such as hurricanes, tsunamis and avalanches to describe the economy. The question of whether a financial tsunami would hit us has now been answered; it’s reaching not only our shores, but those of most of the world. The avalanche is also most certainly in motion, heading straight for us, potentially forcing both markets and the global economy off a cliff.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Credit-aig-economy-met-LM-wfc/index/a/21156
Rich In NNJ says:
February 17, 2009 at 2:25 pm
3B, Sean, et al,
What makes a town “snooty” or “snotty”?
House prices? The inhabitants? Rich
Rich: volume of phlegm…
Clotpoll says:
February 17, 2009 at 2:27 pm
What is the traditional dish served at Albanian weddings?
clot: Turkish coffee spiked with onion glaze…
re# 270 Isn’t that called a Turkish Delight?
#263 Rich: House prices to a lesser degree (IMO), more the inhabitants perception of thems.elves vs other towns
Actually town bashing is very common among Bergen co inhabitants, especially those who are born and raised there, although new comers pick up the habit, and become fervent converts to it.
In all seriousness though I find the snottiness more of a problem, in the so called wannabe towns.
Check this out….
Phlegm with a Canadian quarter for scale.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a2/Phlegm.jpg
#254 – Did you find that on Dear Leader Obama’s website? Is the translation, since we elected our God/President, all will be fine in a couple of months……..
Here comes the late afternoon rally that will erase all of the losses.
Up, Up and away..
Lawn Care:
I know a few residents in Westwood where the White House would be envious of their luxuriant lawns.
Does that put Westwood on the list?
Rich
Albanian Weddings for Dummies
The first thing to do when invited to an Albanian Wedding is to stock up on cash: singles, fives, tens or whatever the currency is at the country the wedding is taking place. This is for the traditional bride-groom dance where all the family and guests go to the dancing couple and give them money, or attach them to the groom’s forehead and his pockets, bride’s hands, or if they are daring or drunk, down her dress. Then the father or a rich cousin usually, “showers” them with money, throwing them over their heads.
It is not the young couple that will benefit from this show, but the band. Years ago, the “throwing money” part was a custom of weddings on mid Albania only, but the bands made it popular with other regions as well. They liked the money so the custom was incorporated into most weddings throughout the country. Years ago, there was only one traditional bride-groom dance as well, but that is also changing, with the band striking up the wedding tune “Napoleon” anytime they feel they need more money.
The wedding normally starts on Thursday, with the viewing of the girl’s dowry. If you are on the bride’s side (especially a woman) you go and view all the displayed finery. It used to be that the bride to be sowed and embroidered all her dowry, but nowadays is mostly bought into the finest stores the family can afford. The dowry usually consists of gifts for the groom’s family, nightgowns and lingerie, linens and bedcovers, jewelry and whatever else the bride will need to start her life in the new home. This custom comes from earlier times when the dowry was all that the bride was allowed in her husband’s house and her wealth was displayed in golden coins necklaces and belts.
Thursday is also the time when the bride starts her make-up preparations. Some families schedule visits for the less important or the less known guests and neighbors at this time.
Traditionally you are given a Turkish delight, and sweet sherry for a woman, or raki/hard liquor for a man. Please do not refuse it even if you hate alcohol or are a diabetic.
It is customary to leave some money at the tray or on the coffee table (usually around $10-$20 or the Albanian equivalent) in lieu of wedding presents. Only the very close members of the family give presents to the couple in form of a dowry. All these money gifts are almost always registered carefully and given to the bride and the groom to start them in their new life.
Friday is the day when the guests continue to visit for bride viewing and to wish good luck and congratulations at her home.
The bride is all in white and expected to greet each and every guest on the living room or the women’s room. Sometimes the men stay in a different room, sometimes not. Sometimes the bride stands the whole time, while the women around her sing. She is not supposed to smile or laugh very much, and sometimes is a very serious woman indeed.
Friday is also the night of the cocktail party or dinner for the closest social circle of the couple. It is more informal and the bride can wear white or other colors as she wishes.
Saturday, it is still visit day, but most importantly it is the bride’s wedding dinner party. All her friends and relatives gather and the groom’s party comes around midnight. The groom’s party must be an odd number. The bride’s father and the groom’s father are usually the one who toast the party and it is advisable to raise the glass and take a sip of whatever you are drinking anytime they do so.
Do not toast with water!! Usually you can leave the wedding after 12 at midnight but it is considered offensive to leave before. Same goes for the groom’s wedding dinner party.
Sunday late morning or noon, the groom and his party come by cab/limo/bmw/carriage to pick up the bride. There is a little girl with the bride’s bouquet. Rice and sugar is thrown when the bride leaves her father’s home. The cars have to circle half the city and cannot go back by the same route. This is also the time when the bride and groom take romantic pictures by the lake or a park or whatever view the wedding cameraman has chosen. Some couples have also incorporated the church/mosque or civil ceremony into Sunday morning tradition.
After, they are brought to the groom’s home where people are waiting to visit with and congratulate with the new couple. This is also called “qoke’ or “adet” (tradition, custom, duty). This is most likely to the groom’s father home, even if the young couple have a place of their own already.
Sunday night is the groom’s wedding dinner party. Bride’s close family and relatives come around 12. The first toast belongs to the groom’s father this time with the bride’s father or oldest male relative following closely behind. The bride’s party number is also odd, but they must have two more than the groom’s party of the previous night.
Customarily a white “bachelor’s” handkerchief is doused with alcohol and burned during the traditional “Napoleon” Dance. Preferably the kerchief should be cotton since it burns so easily. Please stay away from polyester or rayon as they smell horribly and do not burn steadily. The kerchief should be aflame while the groom dances with it and it is not a good sign when it stops burning midway. Sometimes people fire shots in the air to announce the wedding.
Typically, the young couple goes to honeymoon immediately after.
Nowadays, it is not very often that people do separate wedding dinner parties. Usually they consolidate on a Saturday. More and more couples also prefer to hire a DJ and sometimes a Classical Singer or orchestra. They have also incorporated a “Master of the ceremonies” and a slide show telling the story of their love, as well as bride’s maids and groom’s men. The bride changes dresses at least twice, possibly into more informal and comfortable outfits as the party goes on.
If you have missed visiting the couple during the wedding days, or have not received an invitation, you can still go the month after and leave some money on the table or tray as a congratulatory gift. If the couple has moved into a new place, you ought to bring a housewarming gift as well.
These are the general proceedings. Each region has its own folk customs and traditions that sometimes are observed, like the bride entering on her right foot at the groom’s house for the first time, or dipping two fingers in honey and smearing some on the outer door. Some regions stage a mock fight between the bride and groom’s parties.
People living abroad try to observe as many of the customs as they can, but there are a lot of western weddings elements in Albanian weddings especially if one of the spouses is not Albanian. Either way, you must be prepared to drink eat and be merry for a really long time, because the tradition demands it.
http://www.smartmoney.com/etf-quote/?story=charting&symbol=FAS
Im freefalling
Clot,
That $8 billion fraud number is likely to grow exponentially once they get all the books.
I saw that in midnight express, except it was turkish revenge.
Sean says:
February 17, 2009 at 2:34 pm
re# 270 Isn’t that called a Turkish Delight?
#276 Sorry Rich Westwood like River Edge, we are wannabe towns.
At least Westwood has a nice down town.
#276 Rich: although with the housing bust, such things won’t be of that much concern any more, to those who were concerned about such things.
From that Minyanville article:
“On February 5, Moody’s announced a ratings review of all CMBS transactions rated during the period from 2006 to 2008. They’re also evaluating all large-loan and single-borrower transactions, regardless of vintage.
According to Moody’s, their review would reflect 2 key inputs into its CMBS ratings model: stressed capitalization rates and property cash flows. Over $300 billion of securities are under review, or over 50% off all outstanding CMBS rated by Moody’s.
Furthermore, Moody’s cautioned that downgrades could be as much as 4 to 6 ratings levels – or down to junk or near-junk for many securities. Moody’s stated that “property values declined sharply in 2008, and we anticipate further declines over the next 12 to 24 months.” Furthermore, “delinquencies on CMBS loans are also on the rise, and we expect the pace to accelerate as macroeconomic pressures take a toll on property cash flows.”
It’s worth noting that the cuts and downgrades are in a broad arena – hotels, vacation properties, shopping malls, etc. It shows just how deep this deleveraging is, and why it will take more than a quickly cobbled-together bailout plan and what’s left of TARP to cure it.”
3B,
…more the inhabitants perception of themselves vs other towns
I hear you, but I disagree. I’ve met a-holes EVERY town who have inflated egos. I’ve also met some great people who you would think have every right to be proud of their accomplishments (or stuff) who are very humble.
Actually town bashing is very common among Bergen co inhabitants, especially those who are born and raised there, although new comers pick up the habit, and become fervent converts to it.
Um… you’re doing the same thing, only kind of in reverse. None the less, it’s the same.
Not bashing ya, I’m just not a fan of generalizations.
Rich
I was in Bergen Co yesterday. I think it all sucks.
Rich
Not just the grass, the neighborhoods in BC with the most exotic conifers are by far the snootiest.
My brother actually lives in Westwood, I would say that town has nothing on Ridgewood when it comes to snooty, and as 3b has been saying many will be lucky to hold on to their exotic conifers since once the Sherrif tacks up the eviction notice your neighbors will be busy looting your garden anyway.
albani:
I have the girl for you.
ChiFi,
I’m married. Nice video though. You posted it before. I got a job for you. You can run my Sovereign Welth Fund if you buy, hold and sell everything BC and I tell you.
I say we start with 50% shiny, and the other 50% penny stocks. It will be fun.
make (286)-
Don’t laugh. That strategy might outperform Blackrock and Fortress this year.
Frontline program on Financial Meltdown airs today at 9PM on PBS
FRONTLINE investigates the causes of the worst economic crisis in 70 years — chronicling the inside stories of the Bear Stearns deal, Lehman Brothers collapse, the propping up of insurance giant AIG and the $700 billion bailout. “Inside the Meltdown” examines what U.S. Treasury officials didn’t see, couldn’t stop and haven’t been able to fix.
Snooty towns – WHO CARES?? We all have families and friends, we all love our kids, we all have times of joy and tragedy in our lives, and you know what? WE ALL DIE!! The people who matter don’t care where we live or how much money we make. They care about US, not our stuff. I know you guys know this, I’m just venting.
Got .vix?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Evix
Last roller coaster run starts @ 3:45.
sorry if a repost…
http://www.eastcoastvulturefestival.org/
Clotpoll 284,
You suck
:p
ithink ithink,
I think you meant this site
http://www.circlingvulture.com/
Rich
You are right, but of course only the snooty towns get the big obits when they die. The other towns gets two lines in the pennysaver.
Outofstater says:
February 17, 2009 at 2:56 pm
Snooty towns – WHO CARES?? We all have families and friends, we all love our kids, we all have times of joy and tragedy in our lives, and you know what? WE ALL DIE!! The people who matter don’t care where we live or how much money we make. They care about US, not our stuff. I know you guys know this, I’m just venting.
Clot,
Cover story in American Banker today about the upcoming commercial loan losses and the likelihood that there’ll be little or no bailout coming given all the money the government has already spent on bailouts.
westwood, home now to many mexicans
beginning to look like Dover.
#289 out: We know, we just like to have fun with it. It’s very entertaining.
“On February 5, Moody’s announced a ratings review of all CMBS transactions rated during the period from 2006 to 2008.”
Great, so now Moody’s is calling for a “Man I really messed that up, lemme get a do-over”. I guess this is as close as we are going to get to an apology from these skanks so we better accept it. I’m just thrilled that it only took THREE YEARS for them to come back around and re-evaluate these securities that they totally botched.
Does the negative wealth effect come into play when the ratings agencies come back and tell you that what you own is not AAA rated but actually junk? I would say that you already knew that what you had was junk when it stopped producing dividends and they are just confirming it.
Not only do I not have any trust in the old ratings, I don’t have any trust in the new ones that they are going to put on that trash. These rating agencies have lost any credibility with me.
Oh, btw, I’m back.
I am starting to miss George Bush and Hank Paulson.
HE (295)-
That’s my idea of freefallin’.
#283 Rich: Oh I agree with you. I am just posting some observations I have seen heard over the years. Nothing scientific at all.
Having not been born and raised in Bergen co, I find it amusing.
Growing up in NYC, there was Manhattan, and perhaps Riverdale, and thing everything else was just everything else.
was in Bergen Co yesterday. I think it all sucks.
— and didn’t stop by for a “hello” and a drink?? maybe next time…
humph
sl
303 – is for clot
sl
“Cover story in American Banker today about the upcoming commercial loan losses and the likelihood that there’ll be little or no bailout coming given all the money the government has already spent on bailouts.”
I stated this months ago. And I ain’t no American Banker!
277, john
ouchy…
sl
http://www.mlsli.com/unidetailsredo.CFM?MLNum=2071080&typeprop=1&start=1&rpp=10
sl (303)-
Daughter’s lacrosse pre-season stuff. Snoozeworthy, but necessary.
#283 Rich: On a serious note though, if you want to see a situation with 2 towns where things are getting ugly quickly, it is River Edge and Oradell, over the whole River Dell Schools funding controversy.
2x shorts going parabolic now.
11 points until muzzle time.
st barnabus hospital in NJ is bankrupt!
Covering rally?
close them shorts we are coming back!!
Look at the markets, totally rigged and manipulated. Thank God I am out of it.
“Covering rally?”
I’m not complaining.
All potential buyers must be on a leash;
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/9231626/Vick's-Georgia-home-set-for-March-10-auction?MSNHPHMA
Appears that PPT has shown up at the OK Corral with a pop gun.
284 – clot – serious question: if you had a client who was moving to nj with no requirements for commuting- where would you advise them to buy? If at all?
afe (319)-
No buy, nowhere.
Rent.
afe (319)-
That’s also a trick question.
Everybody knows that nobody moves to NJ.
Never mind on the rally…..
ha – caught me! ;)
how long before this pops up here?
‘Babygloomers’ emerge as most striking phenomenon of credit crisis
More than three million people are having to help their parents financially as the savings crisis engulfs a generation of Britons, research has revealed. A Daily Telegraph survey – the first of its kind since the recession began – highlights the heavy toll being taken on Britain’s so-called “Babygloomers”. Almost one in ten adults are having to contribute to their parents’ upkeep, the research found. The Norwich Union research suggests more than 1.3 million adults aged between 17 and 65 are paying their parents more than £250 each month, with some paying up to £1,000.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/savings/4615052/Babygloomers-emerge-as-most-striking-phenomenon-of-credit-crisis.html
Irish government faces growing fears of debt default
Fears are growing that Ireland could default on its national debt after the cost to insure against possible losses on loans to the country rose to record highs at the end of last week. Credit ratings agency Moody’s recently followed rival Standard & Poor’s in warning it might downgrade Irish debt, amid fears that one of Europe’s former success stories is falling into a deepening recession. The cost to hedge against losses on Irish debt tripled last week to a record 355 basis points – meaning that for every £100 of debt, investors have to pay £3.55 to insure against default, according to data firm CMA Datavision. It was about 262 basis points at the end of January.
Moody’s has warned there is a more than 50% chance Ireland will lose its triple A rating within 12 to 18 months.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/feb/16/ireland-debt-recession
“many will be lucky to hold on to their exotic conifers”
THIS is post of the day.
a town is just a town, folk who mainly take care of business. If you find a town snotty is because of your own inferiority complex. I guess you would love to see their property deprecate to $0 so to become homeowners and move out of your rental.
“Babygloomers”
Couldn’t happen to a nicer generation.
Great. Here comes the braying from the peanut gallery.
PPT ran out of funds..
“I guess you would love to see their property deprecate to $0 so to become homeowners and move out of your rental.”
MW [327],
Not exactly. I would also demand that they pay my closing costs.
Woody (327)-
I want their dogs and wives, too.
maplewoodian finally goes to the “you’re just JELZ” defense, neener neener. Wondering what was taking her so long.
“I want their dogs and wives, too.”
Mike Kekich, meet Fritz Peterson.
SRS closed at 77.77.
That is a very lucky number in China. Especially if they were lucky enough to not listen to Bi.
12.23 and counting to go.
“maplewoodian finally goes to the “you’re just JELZ” defense’
Barb,
MW has no clue how many homeowners/former homeowners are on this site.
Stu (335)-
I’m bargaining with God for those 12.23 points.
Woody might be one of those pump-and-dump trolls sas keeps yammering about here.
I just can’t put my finger on what exactly she’s pumping, though.
Any idea what is this security,
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GOE
Clot,
dont forget the silver and fine china….
scratch the china, you cant melt it down.
Clotpoll:
We’ll get it this week if all goes well.
BC,
yeah, I guess we’re jealous of not buying at peak, unlike those ballsy BC homesteaders, we bought in the slumpy 90s. Losers are we.
“I just can’t put my finger on what exactly she’s pumping, though.”
Clot,
Her own demise.
Actually, Chinese consider 8 to be a lucky number
BC (343)-
Perhaps Woody can be a “big sister” to her local MS-13 chapter.
That should at least keep her house safe.
Don’t even try to tell me the MS-13 isn’t in Maplewood.
Mikey Mike,
The 7 is lucky as well.
The number 7 (七, Pinyin: qī) symbolizes “togetherness”. It is a lucky number for relationships. It is also recognized as the luckiest number in the West, and is one of the rare numbers that is great in both Chinese and many Western cultures.
isn’t maple a cheap wood?
No,
Pine and Poplar are cheap. Maple is midrange hardwood. Mahogany is pricey.
photo of maplewood(ian?)
http://flickr.com/photos/saltimbancobus/2913661503/
Poplar is surprisingly handsome in vintage cabinetry. But I digress.
#338 Clot:just can’t put my finger on what exactly she’s pumping, though.
She wants prices to come down on bigger more expensive homes, but she wants prices on her starter home to stay high.
For weekend reading,
http://www.writingshop.ws/html/11th_hour-i.html
#327 mw: Looks like we touched a nerve there.
Many of us here are former homeowners so there goes your jealous bit. And who would be jealous of Maplewood taxes, absolutley insane and for what?
As far as snotty we do this from time to time, for the most part it is just done in fun. Take it easy.
“As far as snotty we do this from time to time, for the most part it is just done in fun. Take it easy.”
I even join in and I own in Snotty Montclair.
Planet CLAIR???? Well excuuuuuuuuse me. *shuns stu, goes back to sweeping out double wide in central jersey*
245 Clot thanks..I thought that would be the flavor…but possibly if you listen just long enough you might get a nugget
“She wants prices to come down on bigger more expensive homes, but she wants prices on her starter home to stay high.”
3b,
Sounds like one leg lifted on a spread trade. OOPS.
http://financialstability.gov/docs/fact-sheet.pdf
timmy G;s big plan
the first word of that sentence should explain everything.
“She wants prices to come down on bigger more expensive homes, but she wants prices on her starter home to stay high.”
Can I get a paper statement please. I did personally lend to you!
“3:28PM Bank of America makes $402 mln TARP dividend payment to U.S. Government (BAC) 4.99 -0.59 : Co announces it made its first dividend payment to the U.S. government under the Troubled Asset Relief Program. The payment, totaling $402 mln, reflects Bank of America’s ongoing commitment to paying back U.S. taxpayers. Today’s payment represents the dividend on the Fixed-Rate Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock issued in connection with the $45 bln in government investments that Bank of America received in late 2008 and early 2009. Approx $223 mln relates to the federal government’s $15 bln investment in Bank of America made under the Capital Purchase Program of the Troubled Asset Relief legislation and an additional $50 mln relates to the federal government’s $10 bln investment in Bank of America as part of the agreement to acquire Merrill Lynch & Co. The remaining $129 mln stems from the government’s $20 bln investment on January 16 to help facilitate the acquisition of Merrill Lynch. Total cash dividend payments to the government in 2009 will reach approx $2.8 bln.”
They would, Stu but it will cost you a small fee.
Stu …Atlantic city boat show feeback from my insider, not one sold. only possibly a few used ones sold in Miami last week
John: Here is a perfect McMansion for you in Bergen Co. Very gaudy, just like you want it. Town might not be snotty enough, but worth a shot.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2902891&id=999999
Looks nice, but I notice they leave out plot size, re taxes and the map features.
I never heard of rivers edge so it must be wrong side of tracks.
3b says:
February 17, 2009 at 4:50 pm
John: Here is a perfect McMansion for you in Bergen Co. Very gaudy, just like you want it. Town might not be snotty enough, but worth a shot.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2902891&id=999999
#358 BC BoB:Sounds like one leg lifted on a spread trade. OOPS.
I could go somewhere with that, but I won’t. I don’t want to get John stimulated.
they better bail out chrysler. I don’t want my grandchildren watching the dukes of hazzard drive around in toyotas.
Just a good old Jap, ain’t taking no
#365 John: It is River Edge, a blue ribbon (whatever that means) close to NYC train town.
It is right next door to Paramus.
They never include the plot sizes, however I cant tell you there is no room for a pool, or even a deck.
Although you could hold family barbecues on the front lawn.
Taxes based on other McM’s in that neighborhood are in the neighborhood of 20K+.
3b [366],
Yeah, I thought it was a slam dunk for John.
“Fears are growing that Ireland could default on its national debt. Moody’s has warned there is a more than 50% chance Ireland will lose its triple A rating within 12 to 18 months.”
This is great, straight from AAA to 50% chance of default. Why even have the any ratings in between? Just give pass or fail grades. will be much more accurate and easier to follow along. AAA is a joke, like the old term Blue Chip.
John River Edge has this famous bar right next to the Train Station in town called Feathers you can stop there for a brew after work on your way home to your McMansion.
#364 The outside of that house looks like the doctors’ offices around here. Go in the front door and turn right for a Pap test, left for an emergency Botox injection. I’ve got a bad attitude this afternoon. Sorry.
#371 sean: And that is all he needs to know.
#372 I think it looks like a catering hall. All that is missing is the fountain out front. John could add that, and than it would be perfect.
“Although you could hold family barbecues on the front lawn.”
John’s Mem Day barbeque?
#375 BC Bob: Sure!! He can show us where he planted the mustard seeds;you know, the ones that did not grow.
“you’re just JELZ” defense, neener neener.
“Bargaining with God for those 12.23 pts.”
Thank God I have this place to come to for comic relief… I swear if I laugh any harder, I am gonna need my kid’s diapers!
sl
“Stu says:
February 17, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Clotpoll:
We’ll get it this week if all goes well.”
Never know, could see a pop after this retest of the Nov lows on the S&P, but I am hoping for the best.
Nice Gap!!!!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=SRS&t=5d
Stanford: The Manhunt Begins
Yesterday, Stanford spokesman Brian Bertsch “wouldn’t discuss the whereabouts of the Texas billionaire”, probably because he didn’t know those whereabouts. It’s probably a safe guess, however, to say that he’s not in the US, and neither is he in the US Virgin Islands, where he lives most of the year. Antigua? It’s possible, but I’d say unlikely. More probable is somewhere with an ask-no-questions private-banking industry and a vague-to-nonexistent extradition treaty with the US.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/121037-stanford-the-manhunt-begins
sl, my husband sits at night and laughs at the pics of people he used to know on facebook.
I sit and laugh here. A rfiggen real estate blog.
Crumcast is doomed. DOOMED. Even my dentist today, chopping off a 100% porcelain crown that I just paid 1200 bucks for in 2002, said, “I HAVE to see that video of the kid on the bad trip after the dentist. I’m doing that as soon as I’m done here.”
saw this on soldhomesreport.com
214 christie st, leonia…
listed for $348k
sold for $466k
days on market 80
listing date 8/25/08
sold date 11/13/08
can somebody explain how this happens?
100k+ over ask? for a pos with 10k in taxes?
And maplewoodian, have heart.
You’re getting ripped, but pretty soon, we’re due for another wine recommendation session. What you save on wine will make you completely forget anything you’re losing on your house.
wow
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/18/business/18auto.html?_r=1&hp
the auto industry shouldn’t get a cent.
47k jobs cut
damn
http://www.asinj.com/revaluation/current-revaluations/leo_41.pdf
Is that the house…the ranch on Page 2?
“New York’s public pensions are socking taxpayers: Costs jumped 100 percent”
http://tinyurl.com/boczwb
Bridgewater Future Comp Killer:
MLS: 2649101
Sold 05/30/01 185000
Sold 01/24/06 340000
List Date 2/16/09 240000
29.4% off 2006 sale price.
Short Sale needs 3rd party approval
pension funds.. gone.
should be fun, good to know they are building more FEMA camps.
Omama is “change”
oh wait.. that was so Jan.
SAS
hugh? me? :)
“SAS Closing Arkansas Shoe Factory”
http://tinyurl.com/bb5fnb
“Eastern European currencies crumble as fears of debt crisis growEastern European currencies crumble as fears of debt crisis grow”
http://tinyurl.com/b2ys2w
“Barack Obama “Public Will Have 5 Days To Look At Every Bill That Lands On My Desk”
http://tinyurl.com/cx5yqw
7 Broken Promises:
1. Make Government Open and Transparent
2. Make it “Impossible” for Congressmen to slip in Pork Barrel Projects
3. Meetings where laws are written will be more open to the public (republicans shut out)
4. No more secrecy
5. Public will have 5 days to look at a Bill
6. You’ll know what’s in it (Republican Senators didnt know)
7. We will put every pork barrel project online
SAS, I think those’re the shoes grandma buys. She’s like 90. Or maybe she’s only 89. I lost track.
You’d like her. But don’t get any ideas. She’s good-looking, fit, trim and healthy – and still does her own cooking, housekeeping and gardening – but she’s completely devoted to my FIL, who died in the 80’s.
HE (379)-
Even better, gapping higher on elevated .vix and rising volume.
So when are the next Plaza Accords coming?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2vMRjO1oXY
Sean (394)-
No more meetings to devalue fiat currencies anymore.
FedCo, the UST and banker/crooks just do it now & jam us with the bill for the damage.
Hell, the G7 only meets now for the purposes of chugging cold medicine and posing for pictures.
Nice run there, Mikey:
Mike Morgan’s Stock Trade Update – February 17, 2009
We initiated the following trades February 9 – 13. Clients receive full details of exit prices, research notes and conference calls explaining our positions.
1 – Buy GOLD – Randgold
2 – Buy NEM – Newmont
3 – Buy NG – NovaGold
4 – Buy ABX – Barrick
5 – Buy AU – Anglo Ashanti
6 – Buy LIHR – Lihir
7 – Buy HMY – Harmony
8 – Buy GFI – Gold Fields
9 – Purchased OJHMZ – PUT on FITB – Fifth Third Bank
10 – Purchased VGNMZ – PUT on GM – General Motors
#387
This house is slightly bigger than a storage shed & would be a good start to a bon fire.
http://pargraph.gsmls.com/imagedb/highres/01/2649101_0.jpg
What a dump…
There is a war going on, but your being hoodwinked while you stuff your face with cancer causing chicken fingers, while you wash it down with an Hg Pepsi:
As tax revenues decline, the fed can operate with deficits. By law, states and counties must balance their budgets. Given that federal law and regulations create program requirements and expenses for state and local government, growing deficits will exacerbate the tension between the federal government and states and between states and counties.
In state and local government, you have people who work hard and make the operations of government go, often with surprisingly little resources. Watching more than $10 trillion of bailouts go to a handful of large banks is deeply disturbing to them.
Before passage of the stimulus package, California was not reimbursing counties for mandated programs. California counties were threatening to withhold payments to the state or sue. Right before house passage, a group of eighteen governors issued a press release supporting the Administration’s proposal. If you look at the list, it is the ones that should be hurting the most.
The stimulus package is designed to provide money to ease the financial pain that the states and municipalities are experiencing. The stimulus package is expected to cost $789 billion. The financial stability plan is expected to add $2.2 trillion to the $8.5 trillion authorized by the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve for bank bailouts. Behind the scenes, the states had to get their half a trillion or so to go along with the bankers getting another $2.2 trillion.
The stimulus money will most likely push the state problems out to Sept-Oct. States will need more money in 2010 federal budget which will go into effect on October 1, 2009.
now, get me a refill of soda, while I sit here in my SUV and do the text message.
munch…munch…much..
i love chicken fingers..munch munch..
anyone have a napkin?
Its different here.
SAS
sas, are you Homer Simpson?
Different vibe here at night. Much less aggressive, much more stream-of-consciousness.
Sorta like the heyday of FM radio, except with heavy overtones of ultimate, abject doom.
I always think of Syd, Pink Floyd and Ummagumma when sas gets rolling.
clot 402,
nah…roger waters.
sl
with neil young, grateful dead and cream.
just rolling with the mess…
sl
sl (403)-
Syd is what I’m turning into.
Go long Scotch!
Interview of John Williams from shadowstats by Marketwatch.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aMmjwaWtsE
Clotpoll says:
February 17, 2009 at 7:53 pm
Nice run there, Mikey:
clot: Why would he waste time with all of that sh!t with operational risk? If you make the call, play it straight up. Also, why is he wasting money on puts, an expensive way to get an exposure more cheaply constructed in other ways…..the guy might have the right strategy, but he implements like a hack…..
chi (407)-
It appears to me that he just made a lot of money.
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
Been reading GM’s term paper submitted to the gov’t today.
http://media.freep.com/pdf/0217_gm.pdf
Wah, wah, we tried, we really did, honest we did! But we need more money and you can come visit us any time and we’ll SHOW you how hard we’ve tried. But, uh, give us the dough or else.
Just to be clear, I don’t keep an eye on Morgan for his subtle, beneath-the-surface messages. To me, he’s like a Roubinator who makes stock picks.
It’s entertaining to watch somebody on a roll. So far, so good. Just like you, I’m sure when his one-trick pony stops working, it will be an ugly crash/burn.
oh my!!!!
http://www.mlsli.com/unidetailsredo.CFM?MLNum=2095822&typeprop=1&start=4&rpp=10
take a look at the taxes!!!
no one will buy this!
Stater (409)-
They should give Waggoner a hand grenade with the pin pulled.
Joe: #398
I never said it was nice or that I would even want to step foot in it. But someone was willing to pay 340000 for it a little over 3 years ago and now the bank will be taking a 100k hit if they can sell it at that price.
30% off of peak prices is a good starting point.
Clot – Honest to God, I don’t see how that man can look at himself in the mirror every morning. One of the so-called “titans of industry” and the guy is too stupid to realize how humiliated he should feel. I mean, the guy is just not very bright.
And the hits keep coming.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/02/17/layoff-lawyer-sees-ominous-signs/
This will warm the cockles of BC’s, Make’s and Clot’s hearts.
Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Gold frenzy lies ahead
“There’s only one item that is bought through both fear and greed. That item is gold. Are you worried about the viability of the dollar? Then buy gold – (fear). Are you afraid that the gold market is getting away from you? Then don’t wait – buy gold (greed).
“Those subscribers who have heeded my advice – ‘buy gold’. They are doing OK today. Of course, for years I advocated buying gold coins and hiding them away and never looking at them or thinking of selling those little beauties. Now if you want gold, you have to buy ‘paper gold’ in the form of GLD. Which is probably OK. Below we see an up-dated chart of GLD. And we see the breakout today at 92.29. This completes a huge base, which started at the 69 box and since has been building and building.
“Today, with the upside breakout at the 93 box on the P&F chart, we’re forced to buy gold in the 944 (April futures) area. For those who missed out on gold when it was in the 700s and 800s, this is a scary proposition. So question – is it too late to buy GLD or high-premium coins if you can find them? As I see it, the frenzy, the speculative phase of gold, the rush of a frightened public lies ahead.
“Big bull markets always find a way to keep you frightened and OUT. Big bull markets are devils with no conscience – to get in you have to ‘close your eyes, and just do it’. Not easy, but in this business nothing is easy except losing money. ‘There’s no fever like gold fever.’ And I’m beginning, just beginning, to feel the fever now. When I look at the chart below, I can sense the fever rising.”
This will warm the c0ckles of BC’s, Make’s and Clot’s hearts.
Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Gold frenzy lies ahead
“There’s only one item that is bought through both fear and greed. That item is gold. Are you worried about the viability of the dollar? Then buy gold – (fear). Are you afraid that the gold market is getting away from you? Then don’t wait – buy gold (greed).
“Those subscribers who have heeded my advice – ‘buy gold’. They are doing OK today. Of course, for years I advocated buying gold coins and hiding them away and never looking at them or thinking of selling those little beauties. Now if you want gold, you have to buy ‘paper gold’ in the form of GLD. Which is probably OK. Below we see an up-dated chart of GLD. And we see the breakout today at 92.29. This completes a huge base, which started at the 69 box and since has been building and building.
“Today, with the upside breakout at the 93 box on the P&F chart, we’re forced to buy gold in the 944 (April futures) area. For those who missed out on gold when it was in the 700s and 800s, this is a scary proposition. So question – is it too late to buy GLD or high-premium coins if you can find them? As I see it, the frenzy, the speculative phase of gold, the rush of a frightened public lies ahead.
“Big bull markets always find a way to keep you frightened and OUT. Big bull markets are devils with no conscience – to get in you have to ‘close your eyes, and just do it’. Not easy, but in this business nothing is easy except losing money. ‘There’s no fever like gold fever.’ And I’m beginning, just beginning, to feel the fever now. When I look at the chart below, I can sense the fever rising.”
That 11th hour article makes for some scary bedtime reading! Praise the shorts.
where are the paid pump & dumpers?
SAS
Thanks for the pbs frontline heads-up.
They have spooky (not jb’s dog) music going in the background.
It almost makes it seem funny.
No music would have been better.
“where are the paid pump & dumpers?”
Yesterday was pay day, we are out drinking and buying some gold!
#338 clotpoll
Woody might be one of those pump-and-dump trolls sas keeps yammering about here.
I just can’t put my finger on what exactly she’s pumping, though.
I’m going with ignorance and denial
Pissed-off-ed-ness
“New foreclosure defense: Prove I owe you”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29242063/?gt1-42003
http://www.housingwire.com/2009/02/17/for-at-risk-borrowers-the-night-before-christmas/
For At-Risk Borrowers, the Night Before Christmas
vic [416],
Link?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
You just know I had to post this…
I suppose my problem is that I pump, but never dump! I also don’t get paid (in short-term gains).
424 – from housingwire..
The plan which will be funded with at least $50 billion of the remaining TARP funds, is said to target borrowers not yet in arrears but at risk of being so.
…would subsidize lenders that lower monthly payments to within 31 percent of a borrowers net income.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2ad3b750-fd27-11dd-a103-000077b07658.html
Bank nationalization gains ground with Republicans
BC (426) –
Here you go, It is somewhere near the bottom.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/words-from-the-investment-wise-21509/
428, Cindy –
The plan which will be funded with at least $50 billion of the remaining TARP funds, is said to target borrowers not yet in arrears but at risk of being so.
…would subsidize lenders that lower monthly payments to within 31 percent of a borrowers net income.
Not that I’m a pessimist or anything, but….
does that include the recently unemployed, the about to be unemployed or the soon to be in the near future unemployed?
How does this really help? Or is this another thing to simply delay the inevitable?
sl
(431) Still – Good questions. I just found the article – I’m thinking about it too. We will have to wait until tomorrow to see if that is what they really have in mind. They are hellbent on throwing some money at ” the mortgage problem.”
#383 Pat
I’m not getting ripped but I look forward for the wine recs.
#383 Pat
I’m not getting ripped but looking forward to your wine recs.
“I suppose my problem is that I pump, but never dump!”
there are a couple “trolls” (blogger that are paid to post) as you call them, that pump & dump. They are very cognito. But, as time goes on, I suspect is will become more obvious to everyone.
SAS
SAS
http://www.modbee.com/local/story/602283.html
No budget yet..These guys head to my hometown tomorrow…
2.31% = drop in the Chinese market so far tonight.
Market futures are pretty close to flat. Lots of economic news out over the next three days. G’night all!
from a different angle (no longer refering to this blog), now that RE is crashing.
ask yourself, who is maken money on the dump?
SAS
maplewoodian,
i can’t remember, you work in RE?
what say you?
SAS
SAS:
If you think I’m a paid pump and dumper, then you are plainly wrong. I also remember that you were way wrong on your AC gambling advice among other things but did not have the heart to tell you so.
For a while there, you had me going with your 007 stories. But recently it appears you are simply craving attention. I sympathize little for you old man.
(438) SAS
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUE2ZJK1T59I
Does it count that John Paulson bought 8.1% of SKF a few weeks ago? He probably already dumped it.
That’s not really a pump and dump though…Doesn’t that mean that you talk up a stock to get it up there then sell it high?
Stu – I listen avidly to everything you say. If I could afford to gamble – I’d even take your gambling advise!
Lost – Reading over the article again it says “to within 31% of a borrower’s net income.” That pretty much leaves out the unemployed….
Sorry 443 was for still_looking…@
#431. Too tired – time to put the feet up…night all.
Cindy, the best advice Stu gave was hidden.
He’s down, overall.
~
Buy yourself a bottle of 2 buck chuck. Drizzle asparagus with olive oil. Wrap in prociutto, roast it at 500 degrees for 7 minutes, and then dip it in garlic sauce. [Clove of garlic, top chopped, sprinkle with olive oil, roast for a couple of minutes at 350. Peel, mash, add salt, pepper, some lemon juice and mayo].
You’ve just had Nirvana for much less than you would lose in Vegas or A.C.
However, if you have a nice guy available…One who is easy-going and smiles a lot. Then go gamble and then head up to your room with the jacuzzi.
Don’t slip on the wet floor.
“Doesn’t that mean that you talk up a stock to get it up there then sell it high?”
Yes it does Cindy, or vice versa.
Heavily traded equities are not subject to the pump and dump anyhow. Lightly traded stocks can supposedly be influenced somewhat, but it is no easy task. If you look at the largest shareholders of particular stocks, it would be quite difficult to influence these people with blog/message board posts. IMO, the pump and dumpers, the PPT, the market manipulators, etc., are all lame excuses for people who lose money regularly on their investment strategies.
Personally, I’ve had quite a stellar track record over the years. I don’t lie and have no reason to. I also own up to my mistakes. I really use 2 strategies and a lot of patience. First, if I see a place where the sheeple are overspending on cr*p that they really don’t need that has a large profit margin, then I invest in the business. Chipotle Mexican Grill is a perfect example of this. My second strategy is to play major macroeconomic trends, such as our current crisis. Some people call this sector rotation. For me it’s more about studying historic trends and playing them. I am well learned in reading the financial pages of a 10-Q and 10-K and use software that helps me determine if a stock is priced correctly compared to its earnings in the past 10 years. The software also makes it easy to evaluate management. I use the software when determining both of the two strategies I outlined above often to find the strongest candidate among competitors in the same field.
Do I always win? No. Have I always beaten the indexes…yes and usually by a lofty margin. Do I want to invest other peoples money, no way! I would have trouble sleeping at night knowing that I might have hurt someone else financially.
And this is not a simple streak of luck. I’ve been cranking along for well over 15 years. Two pieces of advice that I repeat over and over. Patience is the key to successful investing and never take advice from anyone else. Find the trend for yourself.
445 – Pat – You rock..any vegetable smothered in olive oil and roasted tastes great – even cauliflower.
Night
“If you think I’m a paid pump and dumper, then you are plainly wrong”
-No, never said you were, and apologize if I gave you that impression in my posts. however, there are some pump & dumpers on here, It was a general statement, not to single anyone individual out. Its up to the individual to spot it cause this isn’t my website. I was just given a general “heads up”.
“you were way wrong on your AC gambling advice among other things”
-wrong on my gambling? by all means let me know, I’m always open to gambling advice.
“For a while there, you had me going with your 007 stories. But recently it appears you are simply craving attention”
-you have the right to believe whatever you like bloke.
-as for “attention” yes, tis important.., because its what keeps me seeing tomorrow. ever wonder why Mr. Bayer writes books?, it ain’t for the money. Mr. Bayer doesn’t want to be a floater.
“I sympathize little for you old man”
sure, ok. little it is…
SAS
Cindy…not to worry… I understood you :)
Pat…above: mmmmm great recipe!! you *must* see tastespotting.com… [warning! very addictive!]
sl
“That’s not really a pump and dump though…Doesn’t that mean that you talk up a stock to get it up there then sell it high?”
you can make money on the pump.
you can make money on the dump.
not only pump & dump stocks, but one can pump & dump a market, comodity, towns, the United States, anything.
SAS
there are some pump & dumpers on here,
Who?
sl
Pat…you are correct and it wasn’t hidden. I made it very clear that my goal is to entertain myself and to come out as close to even as possible when factoring in the comps. There are probably less than 100 people who have been able to come out ahead as professional gamblers (not cheaters). Google Bob Dancer for an example of one.
I don’t put a lot of faith in people who claim to be such good investors or gamblers that they try to sell you their secret. If they were that good, than they wouldn’t need your money nor risk giving away their secret. This is what turns me off so much about Mr. Morgan. Buffet, has made almost all of his money from investing in insurance companies. This was a no brainer at the time he built his empire. He hasn’t been doing so good since the mid nineties and keep in mind the power he wields simply by opening his trap. He is much closer to a pumper and dumper than anyone else I have ever listened to. Though the advice he gives about leading the herd and investing only in things that you are knowledgeable of are pretty good pieces of advice.
Ultimately, no one should heed my advice. One should use me more as a case study. I am so far from being well studied in the ways of Wall Street. This might be what is providing me with positive returns. I learned a lot from GS when they outperformed the other IBs in the Fall of 2007. They had some chutzpah to short RE after leveraging up their pot through the use and creation of RE CDOs. The game is only rigged IMO, if you play it the way they expect you to. Isn’t it John who keeps saying don’t fight the fed? Bingo.
“there are some pump & dumpers on here,
Who?”
i think its not a matter of who, all posts should be taken with a grain salt. and look into what people say.
almost everyone on here i think is legit to a degree, but you don’t get the traffic that this site does about RE & $ without a few paid “trollers” here and there to attempt to distort or convince.
SAS
O.K., maybe ‘hidden’ was harsh. STFU
How about “under his breath?” Or, an “afterthought?”
Remember, she’s got nothing.
No, offense, Cindy.
You have everything.
I’m talking about what you said re not having anything to gamble with.
And I know that everybody takes offense when you say “No offense.”
I don’t care right now.
but you don’t get the traffic that this site does about RE & $ without a few paid “trollers” here and there to attempt to distort or convince.
I vehemently disagree.
You haven’t been here for 3 yrs like I have. Grim, the owner of this blog, isn’t that sort of guy.
You’ve never met him. You’ve never met anyone from here. I have. I know a few of them rather personally.
Your assessment is incorrect and until you name me some examples I will, yet again, vehemently disagree (and nearly take offense.)
sl
For the life of me, I can’t figure out who you are referring to as the pumper and dumper SAS.
This is what I meant by my 007 statement. I think you lure people in through your mysteries and hooks. I’m not falling for it.
As for gambling advice, I can tell you the odds and perfect strategy to play most casino games. Unfortunately, it often takes weeks of practice to master them. What most gamblers in the casino don’t realize is that a simple pass line bet on the craps table is better than 99.9% of the other options in the casino. Unless you count cards playing blackjack, master video poker strategy, bank every other turn in Pai Gow, or master baccerat, you will lose and on average you will lose between $3 and $10 for every $100 you bet.
At the next GTG (if we ever have one) I would love to share what I have learned with you. Maybe you can bring that mysterious photo album of yours.
And Pat is correct, in the long run, I am down gambling. Fortunately I keep the stakes small and do it for entertainment. My jackpots are won through investing. And I got to tell you. The paper gains I earned today in FXP and SRS easily eclipse my lifetime losses gambling. Of course, Ameritrade ain’t giving me a free room at the base of Heavenly.
Night all!
still_looking,
“You haven’t been here for 3 yrs like I have. Grim, the owner of this blog, isn’t that sort of guy”
-your getting me wrong.
I’ve been here since 05 (off & on, think it started in 05, you will find my posts in the archieve).
-I’m not caliming “this” website or the owner anything. This is a great website, blogged my good people, there are just some trolls every now and then. whom are pretty sneaky.
“You’ve never met him”
correct, never met Grim.
“You’ve never met anyone from here”
you sure about that?
“Your assessment is incorrect”
ok
SAS
Stu says:
February 17, 2009 at 10:18 pm
SAS: If you think I’m a paid pump and dumper, then you are plainly wrong. I also remember that you were way wrong on your AC gambling advice among other things but did not have the heart to tell you so. For a while there, you had me going with your 007 stories. But recently it appears you are simply craving attention. I sympathize little for you old man.
Stu (or whoever if applicable): WTF is this?
Stu says:
February 17, 2009 at 11:07 pm
As for gambling advice, I can tell you the odds and perfect strategy to play most casino games. Unfortunately, it often takes weeks of practice to master them. What most gamblers in the casino don’t realize is that a simple pass line bet on the craps table is better than 99.9% of the other options in the casino.
Stu: I thought the best bet in the house was the odds bet on the pass line after the pass has been pointed? Doesn’t it pay even money? I really never bothered to confirm.
Stu,
-i shouldn’t of said anything about the pump & dumpers, but it was becoming a little too much for me by 2 individuals (whom post M-F 9-5)so I opened my big yap. I just meant it as a general statement so people would think twice.
in retrospect, perhaps not the best approach.
“I think you lure people in through your mysteries and hooks. I’m not falling for it”
-thats good, i don’t want you to fall for it, but rather look into it. If it at all intersts you.
“Unless you count cards playing blackjack”
yup, i count. that why i stay off the strip in Vegas. Too hard to do on the strip.
but i could be doing something wrong, i ain’t getting Madoff type returns :)
SAS
Shytown,
“Stu (or whoever if applicable): WTF is this?”
sometimes the communication gets lost in the typing :)
all is good.
SAS
there are just some trolls every now and then. whom are pretty sneaky.
— what does this mean?
Trolls are usually folks whose arguments are weak, thought processes clouded, who cling to delusional beliefs for whatever reason suits them…
When anyone here talks about a security, be it a bond, stock, gold, anything of value… it nearly always come with a disclaimer.
No one should invest their money based on this blog or (I’d argue, ANY blog.)
To call folks “pump and dumpers” without citing even one example makes for a flimsy argument.
Just sayin’
sl
“To call folks “pump and dumpers” without citing even one example makes for a flimsy argument”
fair enough.
next time i see it, i will call it out.
(sometime m-f btw 9-5)
yes, i made the mistake of saying it too generally, which ended up ruffling the feathers of the natives to the blog.
so, sorry.
(god damn, feel like i’m starting to talk to my 4th ex)
:)
SAS
I have reached the pinnacle of parenthood.
Hunter threw a temper tantrum because my wife told him he had to go to bed without listening to Depeche Mode :)
This is fcuking hilarious!
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02172009/gossip/pagesix/quentins_gift_to_nazi_haters_155529.htm
that guy Taratinio is too much for me.
I liked pulp fiction, but that was it for me.
too violent
SAS
466 SAS,
sorry! It’s not like that.. part of the culture of this blog (IMO only) is that we insist on evidence.
You see how frequently people insist on a link to something that someone has cited.
No one gets a “pass,” not even you ;)
The accusation is a fairly strong one. I would be pretty pissed if someone called me a pump/dumper.
Perhaps that is why the response is visceral for many people here.
Grim runs a fair blog. If it were something egregious, no doubt he would be heavy handed in the moderation.
sl
Asia on the slippery slope….7500
sl
Loved this quote I saw today, pretty much sums it up:
“Americans fall into two distinct categories today: those who remember how devastating the policies of Jimmy Carter were, and those who are about to find out.”
still: OK OK OK…jeez…fine here is evidence and a link……man..make a girl a medical professional and she thinks she runs the world…
Pass odds:
As odds bets are paid at true odds, in contrast with the pass line which is always even money, playing pass odds on a minimum pass line bet lessens the house advantage. A maximum odds bet on a minimum pass line bet gives the lowest house edge available in the casino.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craps
;) chifi,
Just keeping the facts straight, is all.
Look… I had to argue til I was blue in the face even after including good scientific articles that VACCINES DO NOT CAUSE AUTISM!
I am a Scorpio….we
insistno, demand truth, honesty, and preferably backed by science.Misinformation makes me twitch.
I don’t want to run the world…but, hey, I feel like a nut half the time when I try to tell folks about the stuff I learn here…
…lately I just keep quiet…cuz quite frankly….I’m actually rather scared of what’s going on in our nation.
And that, my friend, is the truth.
sl
“VACCINES DO NOT CAUSE AUTISM”
you aint given me no SV40 containing factor 8 hiv+ injection.
i don’t do monkey kidneys
:)
SAS
next, you will be wanting to give me a C section cause its shift change.
ha ha
SAS
476 sas
[sigh…rolling my eyes…]
I’m not that kind of doc…
sl
and the Craps I deal with are usually loose and associated with vomiting….
Vegas ain’t my thing, baby
sl
“I’m not that kind of doc”
let me guess?
your the kind that is easy with the scripts, so you can get all the free office supplies & free lunch once a month.
ha ha :)
SAS
oh wait, your in the ER..
so it goes like this:
good insurance: room 1
no insurance: in the waiting room, no beds, sorry.
and then you leave the poor sap in the waiting room, and then there is no one to check on them, and they drop dead.
that like when I hear hospitals tout there patient to nurse ratio.
then I ask, “what about in the ER patient to nurse ration for the patients waiting in the waiting rooms?”
crickets…crickets….
SAS
ok, now i am teasing.
ha ha :P
tired, i’m off to bed.
it was fun
SAS
AT LAST you people have started calling out ‘sas.’ Personally, I’ve been waiting and waiting for it…
I like SAS’s warnings. a number of them (e.g. re pensions, and bank money being drug money) have been proved right. what’s really strange is to see a regular get highly offended and think that *he’s* the one who is being called a pumper, and respond with insults directed at SAS. why not assume that complaints *aren’t* about you, unless you’re sure?
I do agree that it makes more sense to call out pumping and dumping when one sees it, rather than simply saying that it happens.
The beginning of the end. Couldn’t have said it better myself.
I prefer “decline of Western civilization”.
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