From the Federal Reserve:
(Read that line again, from the Federal Reserve, not the Realtors, not the NJ Association of Realtors, not from the Builders, and not from the Mortgage Bankers. This is coming to us from Ben Bernanke’s FED.)
Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions (Beige Book) – Second District–New York
Construction and Real Estate
Housing markets in the District have been mixed but generally weak since the last report. Manhattan’s residential rental market continued to soften in January, with asking rents reported to be down 3 to 9 percent from a year earlier; in addition, a growing number of landlords are offering one or more months of free rent and are paying any rental fees. Perhaps as a result, rental vacancy rates, which had been rising steadily in the second half of 2008, edged down in January. A major appraisal firm reports that Manhattan co-op and condo prices have continued to decline since the beginning of the year and are down by an estimated 20 to 25 percent from last summer; the number of transactions thus far in 2009 has been running 60 to 65 percent lower than a year ago. A contact reports seeing very few transactions at the high end of the market in Manhattan, and that most of them seem to be all-cash deals. Inventories are rising seasonally from an already-high level and that backlog is said to be accompanied by a large and growing amount of “shadow” inventory in new developments.
The market for single-family homes in and around New York City has also weakened, though market conditions were reported to be more stable in upstate New York. Contacts in northern New Jersey report little or no discretionary activity in the resale market–almost all transactions are either foreclosed properties or distress sales by owners that need to move. In this environment, market prices are difficult to gauge, but an industry expert estimates that they are down 15 to 20 percent from the 2007 peak, with steeper declines at the high end. Separately, a real estate industry contact notes a rising number of “short sales,” for which the mortgage holder agrees to accept less than the full principal balance upon the sale.
(Emphasis added)
First
From the Record:
Fed survey says economy deteriorated in January and February
The country spiraled deeper into recession to start 2009, forcing widespread cutbacks and layoffs among everyone from blue-collar workers who once churned out construction equipment to white-collar professionals such as business consultants and accountants.
The Federal Reserve’s new snapshot of business activity nationwide, released today, showed the economic picture darkening over the last two months and revealed little hope for a quick turnaround.
“National economic conditions deteriorated further,” the Fed’s survey concluded. “The deterioration was broadbased, with only a few sectors such as basic food production and pharmaceuticals appearing to be exceptions.”
Looking ahead, business people rated the prospects “for near-term improvement in economic conditions as poor, with a significant pickup not expected before late 2009 or early 2010.”
From the Record:
85,700 lost jobs in ’08, with no end in sight
New Jersey lost 85,700 jobs in 2008, the worst annual decline in 17 years as the recession tightened its grip on the state economy.
The 2008 figure was revised based on more complete data from the previously reported 63,000, and was the biggest decline since the 119,000 jobs lost in 1990.
Other figures released Wednesday show the decline continuing with another 8,900 jobs lost in January, as the state unemployment rate rose to 7.3 percent, from 7.1 percent in December, according to the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development. That’s slightly lower than the national unemployment rate of 7.6 percent for January, but well above the state’s rate of 4.2 percent just 14 months ago.
Economists said the figures, though expected, showed the state economy is weak, and getting weaker.
“New Jersey is in very, very rough economic waters right now,” said James W. Hughes, dean of Rutgers University’s Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy. “And looking at January’s numbers, there doesn’t appear to be an end in sight.”
…
Hughes said he believes the financial job loss is worse than reported because many laid-off executives, who received severance packages paid out over several months, don’t yet appear in the figures.
…
Mark Vitner, senior economist for Charlotte, N.C.-based Wachovia Corp., also said the actual job losses are probably more severe than reported.
Many unemployed people have stopped looking for jobs, or have moved out of state, and so are not counted in the unemployment rate, Vitner said.
“I am afraid we are going to see the unemployment rate move higher,” he said.
Details on housing plan show U.S. taking aggressive action
Details of the Obama administration’s housing rescue plan were greeted with both praise as a means to help homeowners who are at risk of foreclosure and criticism that more needs to be done to make homes more affordable for new and current homeowners.
“They’re fleshing out the details, and the meat of the program is the modification program,” says Brian Bethune, with IHS Global Insight. “It makes sense, and the more they can show what they’re going to do and execute it, the better off we’ll be. There are potentially millions of owners who could be eligible.”
Obama’s plan isn’t geared toward halting foreclosures. Rather, it focuses on preventing those that could be avoidable by tweaking at-risk mortgages.
Some are excluded. For refinancing, only loans held or guaranteed by Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae are eligible for refinancing. Speculators who buy homes to flip them for profit also are not included in the federal rescue plan.
“Clearly, the administration has put some meat on the bones here. There’s a real chance this could have a dramatic impact on the foreclosure problem,” says John Taylor, CEO and president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition. “To work, it has to have the (loan servicing) industry collaborate, and we’re hoping that will happen.”
20% of mortgages underwater
That’s more than 8.3 million mortgages that were upside down at the end of the year, compared with 7.6 million three months earlier. It’s a problem that is expected to get worse as home prices continue to fall.
“The worrisome issue is not just the severity of negative equity in the ‘sand’ states, but the geographic broadening of negative equity that is expected to occur throughout the year,” he added. “Sand” states include California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida.
SG,
Almost 10% of NJ mortgage holders are under water.
From Bloomberg:
More Than 8.3 Million U.S. Mortgages Are Under Water
New York had the lowest share of underwater mortgages at 4.7 percent. Connecticut was at 9.1 percent and New Jersey was at 9.7 percent.
Breaking from CNBC:
GM says in a 10-K filing that there’s substantial doubt about the auto maker’s going-concern ability.
(wasn’t this obvious?)
Silicon Valley ‘underwater’ homeowners ask: Should I stay or should I go?
“There’s no question that in my 40 years of real estate law practice, people are more prone to walk away from property now than ever before,” said San Jose real estate lawyer Ron Rossi, who said he probably gets 50 calls a week from underwater homeowners wanting to know if they can sell their home for less than they owe (called a short sale), attempt a loan modification, or default, walk away and face foreclosure.
Even some who aren’t feeling the pinch financially are contemplating walking away from their mortgage, said Skip Houston, a mortgage broker in Campbell. He said their reasoning is, “Why should I make my $4,500 house payment? I could let my house go, and rent this exact same house for $2,000.”
A few months ago, hoping to help homeowners decide what’s sensible financially, Fredman launched a Web site called http://www.payorgo.com, and developed a “Pay or Go?” calculator as its centerpiece. He said he has received about 50 calls from people who consulted the Web site. For some homeowners, such as those who are deeply underwater and have monthly mortgage and property tax payments that are well above the costs of renting, bailing out on the mortgage makes financial sense, he said.
Grim #8 in mod.
Las Vegas:FORECLOSURE CRISIS: Many Nevadans ‘upside down’ on mortgages
A new report released Wednesday said nearly 60 percent of Las Vegas homeowners are “upside down” on their mortgages — precisely the group of people who are least likely to benefit from the housing plan the Obama administration began detailing Wednesday.
haven’t read most of yesterday’s action, so sorry if this was covered …
“It’s a great time to come to Saskatchewan,” said Wall, who even called the Toronto Star newspaper to tout his province’s economic success and let Ontarians know there were jobs for the taking.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/03/04/saskatchewan.economy/index.html
“Manhattan co-op and condo prices have continued to decline since the beginning of the year and are down by an estimated 20 to 25 percent from last summer”
No. Not true. A fake, made up story.
RE always goes up, and Manhattan is imuune because of Wall St bonuses.
buy now, or be priced out forever.
This article is nothing more than a consipracy and I do not believe it.
Just who is this Federal Reserve, if I had to guess its some delusional 20 year old blogger from Lodi who lives in his parents basement and eats Gino’s pizza.
This Federal Reserve person..ha. ha ha
Maybe that post by this Federal Reserve person just fears change and is afraid.
I actually feel sorry for this delusional person.
In any case, I learned a cool trick the other day about how to get out of paying tolls, its real easy. But, if I tell you, you have to keep it a secret.
ok, watch me now….
just close your eyes, and tell yourself its not there, and wa^la. The toll booths are all gone. Pretty neat right?
I thought about using a sandbox, and just sticking my head in it, but I think the closing of the eyes method is alot easier, and doesn’t dirty up my mop top.
SAS
wow.
I just closed my eyes and did my trick.
I told myself Omama is lord.
and now.. he is..
this new discovery of mine is way cool.
you have to give it a try.
SAS
SAS,
did you get some bad weed or what man?
All homeowners (esp ones who bought in 2005 and 2006) should use this calculator.
http://www.payorgo.com/
SAS
from last night about “the cave”:
pehaps “shadow puppets” is a better term then “sheeple” for those who live in their own fantasy land
Ref speed driving from previous thread. Speeds on the German autobahn are routinely above 100 MPH. It has to do with discipline and common sense. All drivers here have to go to driving school and traffic is much more predictable then in NJ where they pass in every lane, never use signals, and treat traffic laws as suggestions rather than hard and fast rules. Accidents here tend to be caused by younger drivers under the influence who lack common sense (e.g. think the laws of physics don’t apply to Opels).
The cave? Are you going Plato on me?
Long detailed article, for those inclined to understand policy details.
Wall Street’s Best Investment: Ten Deregulatory Steps to Financial Meltdown
Where The $200,000+ Crowd Lives
“Here’s a look at the states that will be most affected by the tax hike and how they voted in the last presidential election.”
Interesting Slide show. NJ at number 3. Love the photo they use to demonstrate NJ wealth.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29413993
If capitalism is destroyed, blame Obama — or Kudlow?
Economist and blogger Mark Thoma, defending President Obama against the talking heads who say his policies will destroy capitalism, dredged up a 2005 gem from one of Obama’s frequent assailants, CNBC’s Larry Kudlow.
In a June 2005 National Review article titled, “The Housing Bears Are Wrong Again,” Kudlow waxed bullish about home builders’ shares, noting that “all the bond bears have been dead wrong in predicting sky-high mortgage rates. So have all the bubbleheads who expect housing-price crashes in Las Vegas or Naples, Florida, to bring down the consumer, the rest of the economy, and the entire stock market.”
Whoa, Larry — you nailed it, even though you weren’t trying.
Thoma notes that Kudlow concluded his 2005 piece by arguing that the same generous federal tax breaks that had long benefited home owners should be extended to new home buyers and to stock market investors as well. “If this were to come about, even more wealth would be created in America, leading to even more new business and job creation,” Kudlow wrote.
A Growing “Tea Party” Movement?
Santelli-inspired websites quickly appeared attempting to organize tea parties. ChicagoTeaParty.com bills itself as the official home of Santelli’s tea party. The site belongs to Zack Christenson, a Chicago radio producer. Christenson had bought the domain last August, thinking it might be a good name for a group. Within 12 hours of Santelli’s rant, Christenson had retooled the site, and 4,000 people quickly signed up. On Facebook, dozens of Santelli groups formed, ranging from fan clubs to draft-president movements to tea party plans for Chicago, Texas, New York, and Los Angeles.
Anthony Astolfi bought the domain reTeaParty.com about 10 hours after Santelli’s rant. Astolfi is a 24-year-old web designer and small-time political consultant who dabbled in the Ron Paul world last cycle. He thought the tea party idea had a chance to catch on and decided to organize them for July 4. Working with his roommate and a cousin, they finished building a website by midnight. Then they turned to promoting the project. They did Google searches for “Santelli” and left comments pointing to their new site on high-ranking result pages. They spent a couple hundred dollars on a small number of Google and YouTube ads and finally went to bed around 5 A.M. They awoke to 40,000 emails, their site having become a minor sensation. Astolfi says they now have 11,000 people a day coming to reTeaParty.com. Ten thousand people have signed up to get information on the tea parties, and 5,000 have “pledged” to attend one of so-far eight tea parties on July 4.
Two days after Santelli’s tirade, John Shilling, an 18-year-old student in Hilton Head, South Carolina, launched a site called 92percentgroup.org. Its sole mission is to oppose the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan. “We feel like 92 percent of the country has been paying their mortgage on time, and we’ve been a silent majority this whole time,” Shilling says. “We’re hoping to get enough people together to take a stand so we can send a message through action, not a petition.” What action would that be? Shilling isn’t sure, though he thinks withholding taxes or mortgage payments might work. In a way, the 92 Percent Group is instructive: It’s run by an 18-year-old who doesn’t have a mortgage and has yet to even decide what he wants to organize (or how to do it). Yet within 72 hours of launching the site, it received 150,000 visits.
Well we have been having our own GTG parties since 2007.
Sue Adler has taken down her “stickman” post (and, natch, all our comments from yesterday are gone).
I just put a quote from the Beige Book at what is now her most recent post, which (honest to God) references “pent-up demand”.
I really want to debate this lady in a public forum. Log in over there today, and ask her to take me on:
http://njexperts.com/2009/02/23/summit-january-2009-home-sales-stats-and-market-report/comment-page-1/#comment-138
Clot – don’t see it yet. Maybe she turned on post review/approval? Or you have been banned.
No, I’m not banned. The post and comments are just gone. Now the lead thread is about January closings in Summit. I left a post, with no moderation.
85,700 lost jobs in ’08, with no end in sight
There are plenty of jobs for people that want them, my illegal neighboors have no problem getting high paying jobs.
Clot,
can you image how pi$$ed she is this morning? bet there is some good chatter around the office.
vodka (27)-
I bet there isn’t a peep. I think her type tightens up like an inflamed hemorrhoid when called to task in an embarrassing way.
Clot,
if someone can find a cache of the comments page, we could email it to everyone in her office.
DL,
sorry, but yes,”The republic” has surfaced
7….this just in….their cars are ugly too.
Not looking good for Opel. Industry analysts say they have to sell 3m units a year to survive and best they can do is 1.6m
“Protest outside Hoboken City Hall reveals anger, frustration.”
http://www.nj.com/hobokennow/index.ssf/2009/03/protest_outside_hoboken_city_h.html
“I really want to debate this lady in a public forum. Log in over there today, and ask her to take me on:”
I wouldn’t mind going 2 out of 3 falls with that blonde chick.
HEHE
really? i didnt think the blond was the more attractive of the group. oh well to each their own
(SG) 19 – After reading to #3 – the Brooksey Born fiasco where she finally resigned in frustration – I just printed it out to read like a book (28 pages.)
Thank you SG – I always appreciate your posts.
One stat that caught my eye as page 27 printed out, “The number of people working to advance the financial sector’s political objectives is startling. In 2007, the financial sector employed a staggering 2,996 separate lobbyists, more than five for each Member of Congress. The securities/investment industry alone had 1,023 lobbyists on the payroll.”
vodka (29)-
I like the way your mind works.
However, Keller-Williams street dogs (salespeople) are even more brainwashed than their broker/owners. That company is like a mini-Amway…and just as cultish and weird.
HE (34)-
Maybe you can don some chainmail, grab your mace, go over to her office and take her prisoner.
Cindy (36)-
DC is just an annex of Wall St.
If job losses continue at their current rate, the US stands to lose 7 – 10 million jobs this year.
Obama’s jobs plan better get beefed up.
if the rate of increase in U3 unemployment continues then we could see a U3 at or above 10% by Xmas and a U6 (real unemployment) of 17-18% by Xmas.
but dont worry, Bernanke said that the down turn will be over in 2010
Kettle,
The picture’s kind of grainy but I am willing to bet that she’s a little trashier than the other two.
Clot,
I’ll show up with a pre-approved mortgage app and tell her if you want to close take off the clothes.
Grim,
I guess am back to the NJRE Report. I woke this morning to find Sue had removed her informative graph. I will miss the times with Sue. But the brightest flame always burns the fastest. I will remember the good times and bad, mostly the good. She had me at HELCO.
HE-
Are you a shut-in? Dude, go out and take a walk or something. :)
Consumer bankruptcy filings jump 29% in February for a year ago
The number of U.S. consumers filing for bankruptcy jumped 29% in February from the year earlier, and the number is expected to keep rising as economic troubles deepen, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute Tuesday. Some 98,344 consumers filed for bankruptcy protection in February, according to the ABI which compiles data from the National Bankruptcy Research Center. It represents the most bankruptcies filed in the month of February since new bankruptcy laws went into effect in 2005. “We expect at least 1.4 million bankruptcies this year,” said ABI Executive Director Samuel Gerdano, in a statement. Gerdano added that the number will be even higher if Congress changes laws that would permit residential home mortgages to be modified under Chapter 13 of the Bankruptcy Code. Chapter 13 allows people to budget their future earnings under a plan in which creditors are paid in whole or in part.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2009-03-03-bankruptcy-filings_N.htm?csp=34
You’re Dead? That Won’t Stop the Debt Collector
The banks need another bailout and countless homeowners cannot handle their mortgage payments, but one group is paying its bills: the dead. Dozens of specially trained agents work on the third floor of DCM Services here, calling up the dear departed’s next of kin and kindly asking if they want to settle the balance on a credit card or bank loan, or perhaps make that final utility bill or cellphone payment. The people on the other end of the line often have no legal obligation to assume the debt of a spouse, sibling or parent. But they take responsibility for it anyway. “I am out of work now, to be honest with you, and money is very tight for us,” one man declared on a recent phone call after he was apprised of his late mother-in-law’s $280 credit card bill. He promised to pay $15 a month.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/04/business/04dead.html?em=&pagewanted=all
Hahaha, thought that one would get a chuckle.
HE (42)-
Honest to God, back in the day (when I was with Weichert), one of my colleagues “went the extra mile” to sell a house to her client.
She couldn’t wait to get back to the office to tell us about it.
LR floor, vacant house. Bleech.
HEHE
relax man, go browse the web for some adult material and calm down. your getting all worked up over a pinto. go find a Ferrari if you want to drool
clot 48,
your friend might make more money if she stopped trying to sell homes and focused on her core business.
Oh oh a Pinto? You know what happens when they get hit from behind!
ick.
Can we try to stay on task regarding the Sue Adler team?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123621392108135233.html
HO ho – The Dems didn’t like this one
“White House Rethinks Tax Hike”
“President Barack Obama is meeting strong Democratic Party resistance to his proposal to reduce tax deductions enjoyed by upper-income Americans and could be forced to drop or modify the idea.”
One of you intrepid LODs should become one of Sue’s clients, get her to schlep you around all weekend and report back here on what happens.
As Mish say’s, why have Filet Mignon when you can have Cube Steak:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/03/cube-steaks-resurgence-with-sinking.html
My fascination with the Sue Adler team is finished I apologize if anybody was offended.
Countries Stepping in to Finance Export Trade
As hard as it is for businesses to get loans these days, consider this: even for Toyota Motor, the world’s largest automaker, the well has run dry. The problem, which led Japan to take the rare step Tuesday of tapping its foreign currency reserves to help, is a result of banks curbing the once-easy stream of credit that had helped nurture a boom in global trade. When the world’s economies were expanding, banks financed up to 90 percent of the $13.6 billion market for merchandise trade. But lenders pulled back sharply when the credit crisis hit, forcing governments that are already providing trillions of dollars to financial institutions to support another vital part of the system that extends loans to exporters and importers.
In Japan’s case, while many companies are flush with cash, the government said Tuesday it would dip into $1 trillion worth of foreign currency reserves to lend dollars to Toyota, Sony and other struggling exporters, a sign of how deeply the credit crisis has started to affect even the biggest businesses. About $5 billion of Japan’s foreign currency reserves will be used to finance a government-backed bank that will be charged with making dollar-denominated loans. The carmaker said its wholly owned subsidiary Toyota Financial Services was requesting money that would help it make more loans to customers in the United States.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/04/business/worldbusiness/04trade.html?_r=1&ref=business
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/daily-show-vs-cnbc/
Daily Show vs. CNBC – from The Big Picture
Hilarious…
HEHE
not offended just disappointed. Aim high my friend!
“Details of the Obama administration’s housing rescue plan were greeted with both praise as a means to help homeowners who are at risk of foreclosure and criticism that more needs to be done to make homes more affordable for new and current homeowners.”
In the spirit of yesterday’s discussion of the role of the word “F’ckn” in NJ, Gimme a F’ckn break! Forst, irresponsible buy houses at over-inflated prices, then as additional lemmings run into purchase houses at over-inflated prices causing the prices to overinflate even more, our first misguided souls pull out equity and buy toys. Now tht the bubble has burst, they all get crammed-down mortgages, get to keep the toys, and the write-downs are no longer considered imputed income? Why on earth should anyone act prudently anymore? Those of us who acted reasonably not only get the shaft with respect to purchasing certain properties (the lemmings in essence have been allowed to buy what were then overpriced houses at today’s prices and get the benefit of living in them or using them during the past several years) but the meltdown causedby their irresponsible behavior may also cost the prudent amongst us higher taxes and we lose the ability to be rewarded for our proper behavior by getting to purchase foreclosed properties abandoned by the imprudent.
This is policymaking at its worst and, inthe interest of short-term goals, sets the stage for an even bigger bubble and bust later.
God save us from our elected officials.
Must resist urge to unseat current congressional representative.
Fed Eliminates Compensation Limits for TALF Program
The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury eliminated executive-compensation limits for companies that bundle loans accepted under a new $1 trillion program, indicating the rules may have hampered efforts to start the plan.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.MKNc.ZKf48&refer=home
Shoreguy,
run for office, we can set up the NJREReoprt platform.
grim,
That chart is a first time inductee into the blogger hall of fame. Absolutely the best. BTW, I’m the fourth stick man up from the top tooth of the beast, in case anybody wants to know what I look like.
And the Sue Adler site: I posted twice in the last 12 hours; she is classic and has become my favorite RE agent of all time. Sorry grim and Clot! lol! :)
“Protest outside Hoboken City Hall reveals anger, frustration.”
Weeeeeeeeeee, I can’t afford taxes on my million $ condo, weeeeeeeeee.
I wish I could feel their pain, if you can’t afford it, sell it. Suck it up and pay it.
“I just put a quote from the Beige Book at what is now her most recent post, which (honest to God) references “pent-up demand”.”
But things will not improve until demand is “panting.”
there is a westfield house, new on the market listed at 525K. It was bought in 2004 for 499K. No updates done since. Where would we expect this house to go…to 1998 prices? or is this priced correctly–a first??!
Dear Sue,
I heard that one should consider buying soon as prices will resume 7% to 8% appreciation starting this spring due to proximity to NYC and the fact that they’re not making anymore land. If I don’t buy soon, will I be priced out forever?
More crying about home prices.
Weeeee My $2 million house is only worth $1m. Weeeeee. Most people wish they had million $ problems. Suck it up Jack and pay up.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/05/us/05mortgage.html?_r=1&hp
68…Is this the same Frank because he appears to be bipolar!
Sue has me in moderation.
dang!
SAS
Looks like Sue learned Grim’s East German moderation trick.
:P
SAS
if Treasury is unable to sell about $2 trillion of paper over the next eighteen months at the current historically low rates then whole plan falls apart. as of 2007, the 13 week treasury rate(IRX) (the interest rate the government pays to borrow money) was at about 50.0 or 5%. It is currently at about 2.5 or 0.25%.
Obama’s administration has claimed that the current deficit is not a problem. Its not if we maintain 4% growth and IRX around 2.5. If growth is lower then expected and IRX goes up then the interest payments on the deficit go through the roof!
The current IRX of 2.5 is unheard of for the last 40+ years. take a look
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EIRX#chart1:symbol=^irx;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
————
TALF hopes rein in asset-backed spreads
Just the knowledge that the Federal Reserve was getting ready to plow up to $1 trillion in cheap funding into the asset-backed securitization market has driven down spreads on these pooled credit-card and auto loans, a sign that investors are ready to buy into the central bank’s latest liquidity program.
link to marketwatch article, and BOLD off,
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/securitized-credit-card-spreads-drop-investors/story.aspx?guid=%7B00FDAA94-18DB-4C11-95D5-E004F6EB53AE%7D&dist=msr_1
Frank,
Huh?
From Marketwatch:
Abercrombie & Fitch February same-store sales down 30%
“SAS,
did you get some bad weed or what man?”
no, I just didn’t have my morning coffee yet.
because i now wait in line at the shelter for my coffee.
I don’t brew 5 o’clock bean at home, that is what those yuppie wealthy people do.
I wait in line for my coffee, yeah I might wait awhile, but I will learn to appreciate it once I drink it.
I wish my buddy from yesterday was around with his shopping cart of empty recycle bottles. It blocked that wind real good.
Maybe, this guy over there with the patch on his eye might have a cart. yup, he does, looks like its filled with coats. maybe I can borrow one? I don’t have a coat. Coats are for those damn wealthy people.
SAS
I think sue deleted all the new comments, i dont see any comment on her page now
Moody’s warns it may downgrade Ambac to junk
Moody’s Investors Service said late Tuesday that it may downgrade Ambac Financial again because the bond insurer’s capital position has deteriorated further and it may suffer larger-than-expected losses from mortgage-related exposures. Moody’s put the Baa1 insurance financial strength ratings of Ambac Assurance Corporation and Ambac Assurance UK Limited on review for possible downgrade.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/moodys-warns-may-downgrade-ambac/story.aspx?guid=%7BAEF695B5-D161-4B0D-8908-EC40178D8033%7D&dist=msr_4
Bank of America Ratings Cut at S&P
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lowered its long-term counterparty credit rating on Bank of America Tuesday and repeated its negative outlook on the company and its bank subsidiaries. The agency cut BofA’s long-term rating to “A” from “A+” while at the same time affirming its “A-1” short-term ratings on the financial-services firm. In addition, S&P dropped its ratings on BofA’s bank units to “A+/A-1” from “AA-/A-1+”. The “AAA” rating was affirmed on the debt of BofA and its divisions that’s guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10467527/1/bank-of-america-ratings-cut-at-sp.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI
fun for Citi
Mexican Lawmakers Target Citigroup’s Banamex in Bill
Mexican opposition lawmakers plan to propose a bill that may force Citigroup Inc. to give up control of Grupo Financiero Banamex SA after the U.S. government said it will take a 36 percent stake in the New York-based company. Under the draft published today in the official Senate gazette, if a foreign government has a stake in a foreign company that owns a Mexican bank, the foreign firm would have to reduce its ownership in the Mexican bank to less than 50 percent within 30 days. Senators from the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, plan to propose the bill.
The proposal would modify Mexico’s banking law, which already prohibits foreign governments from owning or having a stake in banks that operate in Mexico, such as Banamex, which Citigroup bought for $12.5 billion in 2001. The U.S. government, which has channeled $45 billion into Citigroup, agreed to a third rescue on Feb. 27 that will give it a 36 percent stake. “The U.S. government is one of the principal stockholders of a private bank, and that bank is in Mexico,” Carlos Lozano de la Torre, the senator who wrote the bill, said in an interview. “Solving this issue should be on the national agenda.” Lozano de la Torre urged President Felipe Calderon’s government to take a greater role in negotiating a solution to the issue. PRI lawmakers are in talks on the matter with officials from Banamex and the finance ministry, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a874zgZkit9U&refer=news
crap!
my coffee bean jar really is empty.
sh*t…
SAS
SAS
more on pensions
Hidden Pension Fiasco May Foment Another $1 Trillion Bailout
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=alwTE0Z5.1EA
From the bloomberg article at 81
Even states that have had fully funded pensions –such as New Jersey in the 1990s — now have retirement plans with fewer assets than future liabilities and aren’t moving to plug the gaps. New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, a former co-chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs, has proposed allowing government pension funds to put off half their pension contributions because of the state’s growing deficit during the recession. Corzine’s suggestion follows a recent New Jersey pension track record of mistakes. When the state’s pensions were healthy in the 1990s, the state legislature eliminated nearly all of its annual pension contributions for almost a decade, while adding $4.6 billion of benefits. New Jersey sold $2.75 billion of pension bonds in July 1997. Then-Governor Christine Todd Whitman said at the time that the bonds would save taxpayers $47 billion and make the system fully funded. “You’d be crazy not to have done this,” Whitman said in a Bloomberg News interview in June 1997. “It’s not a gimmick. This is an ongoing benefit to taxpayers.” Whitman’s prediction hasn’t held up. While the state pays pension bondholders a fixed 7.64 percent interest rate, the fund has earned 4.8 percent annualized since the bond sale, according to Tom Bell, spokesman for the New Jersey Treasury Department.
New Jersey’s pension bonds haven’t saved taxpayers $47 billion. To date, the state has lost more than $500 million on those bonds, according to state records.
“Governor Whitman came up with this outrageous gimmick in order to give people tax cuts,” says Kramer, chairman of the board that oversees New Jersey state pension funds. As the global economic crisis deepens, public pension funds will lose more money. The solution shouldn’t be more accounting tricks, Kramer says.
“Virtually every pension system has suffered losses in excess of 20 percent since they created the last set of artificial numbers,” he says. The best step forward would be for states to negotiate benefits down, increase pension contributions and reduce the expected rate of return, Texas pension oversight board member Rowe says. Public pension funds have to stop pushing the costs of retirement benefits for current workers into the future, actuary Gold says. “You’re putting a bigger burden on your children,” he says. “It amounts to a transfer from tomorrow’s taxpayers to today’s employees.”
the FED better start printing
Europe’s banks face a $2 trillion dollar shortage
European banks face a US dollar “funding gap” of almost $2 trillion as a result of aggressive expansion around the world and may have difficulties rolling over debts,
according to a report by the Bank for International Settlements.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4939796/Europes-banks-face-a-2-trillion-dollar-shortage.html
#4 SG The housing bailout plan is an absolute disgrace. Bid 50% off current askimg prices.
From MarketWatch:
Jobless claims slip back to 639,000
The number of workers filing for state unemployment benefits fell by 31,000 to a seasonally adjusted 639,000 last week, while the smoothed average of continuing claims moved higher into record territory, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
First-time claims fell back from a 26-year high of 670,000 the previous week to 639,000, likely because of difficulties adjusting for the federal Presidents Day holiday.
The smoothed average of new claims over the past four weeks rose to 641,750, the highest since October 1982. The smoothed average is considered a better gauge of labor market conditions than the volatile weekly number because it smoothes out one-time distortions caused by holidays, bad weather or strikes.
Meanwhile, the number of people receiving unemployment checks in the week ending Feb. 21 dropped for the first time in seven weeks by 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 5.11 million from a record high the previous week. The smoothed four-week average increased 76,750 to 5.01 million, a record high. The data go back to 1967.
Ons suspects that a rational stock market would plunge on all this news. Hence, we should end up closing above 7,000. We can fund the stock-price bubble by a special tax on the solvent.
I know many you blokes has fun on the Sue website.
but, as a friendly advice, I wouldn’t post harsh words on some “gold coast” RE boards.
SAS
#60 Shore –
“Must resist urge to unseat current congressional representative.”
I’m really starting to appreciate the word ‘defenestrate’ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defenestrate). It is such an eloquent protest… no one can mistake your meaning.
After you literally unseat your rep, please defenestrate him/her.
[18] DL
I was thinking the same thing, and yes, they are going Plato on you.
I hated reading Plato. I could never understand why anyone would want to be a Philosopher-King.
How about you put this lady out of business?
http://hobokenrealestatenews.com/
tbiggs,
Now for an obscure cultural reference.
Q: “What floor are we on?”
A: “Sceond”
Q: “Pitty!”
[60] shore
I have a similar sentiment, but I must resist urge to ventilate current senators.
NJ stores are doing just fine….
Where’s the recession?
Village Super Market, Inc. Reports 24% Higher Net Income for the Quarter Ended January 24, 2009
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Village-Super-Market-Inc-pz-14552015.html
[66] lennie,
The 2004 number could be an outlier, not reflecting true market at the time of the sale, such as a sale from Mom and Dad to Little Timmy.
Or it could just be a delusional seller, trying to sell a POS abutting the tracks on the Clark town line.
[22] SG,
Don’t you know that the “tea parties” are an orchestrated effort by the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy???
Posters on this board said so, and they read it on the internet at places like DailyKos and Salon, so it must be true.
Wonder who John Shilling is? Haven’t seen him at any Vast Right Wing Conspiracy meetings. Maybe he’s new.
Cindy: In 2007, the financial sector employed a staggering 2,996 separate lobbyists, more than five for each Member of Congress. The securities/investment industry alone had 1,023 lobbyists on the payroll.
99% of Americans have no clue about how things get done in Washington. Having said that, if this Chicago Tea Party guys are determined for a fight, they can throw spanner in the party. The issue is most of new activists have no incentives. I did lot of grass root lobbying and actually worked with many of these lobbyists, so know some of their weaknesses. In fact today with Internet and Social networking one can put together a large support base real quick.
“the financial sector employed a staggering 2,996 separate lobbyists, more than five for each Member of Congress.”
I wonder how many “lobbiests” worked below the table, sucking-up, to the members?
Sue, you need to stake your territory.
Don’t be afraid, as long as you avoid topics you feel ‘iffey’ about discussing.
Think of your current buying clients. And also your successful selling clients. Who are they? What are those particular behaviors that make them successful?
Now, defend them as a demographic. Why is it important that we not forget that certain people are making decisions for specific reasons?
Please post here.
And do not worry about Clot’s assertion that you cannot develop or evolve. If one single premise of yours is shot down, the entire tower will not fall. Infallibility is not expected. You will come out the other side tranformed.
The old Frank is back. A gain in 25 ShopRites and the recession is over. How is Whole Foods doing? People still have to eat.
Only an ignoramus would point to a consumer staple and say “business is booming”.
A Question Revisited: Is Capitalism Working?
As Washington policymakers search for ways to solve the current economic crisis, it is crucial that they keep in mind their country’s heritage and tradition. The American brand of capitalism rests on creative destruction, innovation and, ultimately, entrepreneurs. It is impossible to rebuild the superstructure of U.S. prosperity by destroying its foundation.
It would make sense that people are turning to shoprite. They have sales on one brand of each major item i.e. there is always a pasta sauce really well priced, a ketchup, the 2% milk gallon one week then the 1% gallon the next etc so that if you don’t have brand loyalty you can really save by shopping there. They also are trying to give that warehouse shopping feel by putting pallets of goods on the aisle–pretty smart marketing.
Stu,
The local water commissions still report high demand.
“How is Whole Foods doing?”
Who can afford Whole Foods? Not I, so I don’t care about them.
“The American brand of capitalism rests on creative destruction, innovation and, ultimately, entrepreneurs. It is impossible to rebuild the superstructure of U.S. prosperity by destroying its foundation.”
And it was built on savings and investment, two other things we have thrown over the transom.
Clotpoll says:
March 5, 2009 at 7:57 am
HE- Are you a shut-in? Dude, go out and take a walk or something. :)
Seriously.. take a cold shower, buy an onion, you, like John does…or go do something for god’s sake. You’re creeping the rest of us out.
sl
Would expect supermarket sale on the uptick as fewer are going out to eat and making dinners at home.
SG
I served a congressional internship before I went to college. It is fascinating to watch these people make deals. The 2nd day I was there the Chief of Staff of this Congresswoman turns to me and says “Everything you hear is completely confidential, you understand that right?” I managed to say ‘ofcourse’.
And I was just hearing the stuff in the general office not behind closed doors.
A World Transformed: Panelists Look Beyond the Crisis
“One thing the U.S. has done well is recognize the problem quickly,” Amyx said, “but the U.S. is not as well positioned going into this crisis. Japan had high savings rates. The debt was to Japanese households, not spread around the rest of the globe. The U.S. has zero household savings…. We’re relying on the kindness of strangers and foreign investors to finance the stimulus that we need to get us out of this crisis.”
Amyx noted that during Japan’s financial crisis in the 1990s, many government measures didn’t work. “Japan had five injections of capital into banks. So one clear lesson is that, in terms of re-capitalization, the government needs to do its due diligence.” Japan also spent massive amounts of money on fiscal stimulus. “It didn’t work; it didn’t get Japan out of the recession.” One reason: Japan’s political battles at the time. “The fiscal stimulus was directed in very political ways. It had nothing to do with where the economy was going. So I think one of the lessons is that [fiscal stimulus] needs to be done judiciously.”
The U.S. can also learn from the fact that Japan’s turnaround took hold when the government was finally able to stop propping up the market, according to Amyx. So as the Obama Administration considers its stimulus programs, it should keep an exit strategy in mind. “It’s very common for governments to come in and create institutions to jumpstart markets,” said Amyx. “The difficulty is to withdraw that support.”
When we stop seeing squirles everywhere, then we will know things have hit bottom.
” in terms of re-capitalization, the government needs to do its due diligence.” ”
I suspect that the only way to recapitalize banks at this point is to take them over, wipe out the investors — who knew or should have known investing is risky — and relaunce the enterprises free of past toxicity.
True Shore Guy, but they will wait until it is too late.
mom’s basement: it’s not just for lyndhurst italians anymore.
Jeffrey Root was running out of money working a fast-food job when he decided to seek a last-resort remedy to his financial woes:
He quit the job and moved into his parents’ basement with his wife.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/LIVING/03/05/bright.side.economy/index.html
Secondary Market: Why did he quit his job?
What’s wrong with nationalized banks?
Government run industries tend not to be very innovative, but the only useful innovation to come out of the banking industry in the last century is the ATM machine. Otherwise, when banks innovate, that’s when it’s time to hold on tight to your wallet. Bank innovation tends to fall into two categories: (1) sneakier ways to trick people into getting into more credit card debt and pay more outrageous credit card fees; and (2) complicated financial products like mortgaged backed securities and derivatives which have led to the recent financial collapse which not only ruined that banking industry but took down the whole economy with it.
Conclusion: we’d be much better off without bank innovation.
Pat (98)-
I think Sue’s only concept of transformation involves scalpels and subcutaneous injections of botulinum toxin.
“And do not worry about Clot’s assertion that you cannot develop or evolve. If one single premise of yours is shot down, the entire tower will not fall. Infallibility is not expected. You will come out the other side tranformed.”
Transformed? Hand me the pliers…
I see that a prominent Texas institution divested itself of a toxic asset:
The Cowboys Cut Terrell Owens.
Another 25% off “bargain” in Upper Montclair
GSMLS 2655489 31 Marion
Tax Assessed: $697,000
LP: $525,000
Stu – Is the PowerPoint ready yet?
I imagine that muzzle is beginning to grate at bi.
[113] stu
Article says he enrolled in college.
Article says he enrolled in college.
I wonder how he’s going to pay for it?
Wow, Marketwatch is even keeping this on site is surprise.
Dow Could Hit 4,000
Stu,
Because he takes advice from his wise father:
“John Root, 65, decided to quit working as a fast-food manager to become a real estate agent.”
“GSMLS 2655489 31 Marion
Tax Assessed: $697,000
LP: $525,000”
Gator, Gator, Gator. Don’t you know that you cant use this as a comp? The price is clearly designed to ignite a bidding war and one may resonably expect the final sales price to be far above the assessed value.
#121 SG Wow, Marketwatch is even keeping this on site is surprise.
Yeah, but Sue says…. Oh never mind.
Cindy (58) –
Jon Stewart kicks a$$!!! Thanks for the clip. It is sad that the only credible news show is on Comedy Central.
WSJ article on the housing bailout this morning features a dude who bought a $1m house that requires 50% of his income to meet the payments. He doesn’t qualify for a bailout, but is begging for one. Fortunately for all of us, program is limited to mortgages up to $729k, so only the truly needy will benefit.
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20090304_the_end_is_here/
jon stewart destroys that clown rick santenelli
http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2009/03/jon_stewarts_rant_santelli_reu.html
#126 skeptic: Similar article in the NYT this morning. Guy buys a house for 585K 5 years ago. He remortgages it up to over 1.1 million. Now he can not afford it.
He would like the lender to drop his mtg rate to 4%, and knock off 600K!!!!! off the mtg.
#60
“Why on earth should anyone act prudently anymore? Those of us who acted reasonably not only get the shaft with respect to purchasing certain properties (the lemmings in essence have been allowed to buy what were then overpriced houses at today’s prices and get the benefit of living in them or using them during the past several years) but the meltdown causedby their irresponsible behavior may also cost the prudent amongst us higher taxes and we lose the ability to be rewarded for our proper behavior by getting to purchase foreclosed properties abandoned by the imprudent.”
**********
the only reasonable response is to stay on the sidelines while all the desperate maneuverings run their course.
C is on the dollar menu.
#131 Cue the lumbo music. How low can it go?
Rats. That’s LIIIIIMBO. God.
Does this mean I can pick up C stock certificates at my local 99-Cent Store?
Do 99-Cent Stores have a return policy?
Wonder how John’s Citi bonds are looking right now?
Anyone who has ever watched Santelli knows that he is not your typical CNBC bozo / permabull.
People who denounce Santelli would rather change the subject than address what he actually said.
That’s gonna be a helluva reverse split that C will have to pull.
I wonder how John’s looking right now.
“Wonder how John’s Citi bonds are looking right now?”
if someone can find a cache of the comments page, we could email it to everyone in her office.
Try visiting the wayback machine. If the page was cashed while your comment was available then you might find it here. It is hit or miss though. They use web crawlers to archive as much as they can. The more links that point to the article the more likely that it was backed up.
http://www.archive.org/index.php
A return to triple digits for SRS today?
Why do people even watch CNBC? They are consistently wrong and they all continue to talk over each other. I absolutely see no value to the actors there and feel we would be better served if the ticker was extended upwards to cover the entire screen.
Dow off 220
wow?
sl
I think most people would agree that the gov’t should provide some safety nets. Inherent in any safety net is moral hazard to some degree.
The difference between say unemployment insurance, food stamps and public housing, on the one hand, and this mortgage bailout, on the other, is massive.
Never before has the gov’t said you have a right to live in a 3/4 of a million dollar home.
News flash: SEC to outsource its work. As in, fielding reports of crimes and following up on them.
You can’t make this shit up.
Clot. I have had a sell in for 1/6th of my position at 100 since I started reaccumulating late last year. This will be my first sell of anything for tax year 2009. I wonder how those technical day traders are doing so far this year?
“Why do people even watch CNBC?”
Becky Quick, Erin Burnett, etc
sl (143)-
This is just the c@cktail hour. The g@ngb@ng hasn’t even started yet.
#130 skeptic: Agreed, but still think most of the clowns will end up defaulting any how.
If out looking for a house bid 50% off!! Why not at this point?
A potential buyer needs to protect themselves against this madness.
Bidding 50% off is no more insane that cram downs, mtg modifications, principal write downs and all the other insanity out there right now.
Stu 142,
Amen!
They should give Roubini, Faber, Taleb and Schiff their own shows!!!
It would be a great stimulus for parent company.
Stu (146)-
I was tempted to put in a limit order around $100 and switch to day-trading it, but I think we could be looking at this thing rocketing all the way to $150-ish with no local stops in between.
The fundamentals are just God-awful, the sentiment is suicidal, and the news brings no relief.
Good times!
“Becky Quick, Erin Burnett, etc”
Skep…I’ll have to take your word for it as I haven’t watched CNBC in years. I do enjoy Bloomberg a heck of a lot though. I’m interested in economic news. Not some broadcasting school drop-out’s view on Googles future.
#149
“If out looking for a house bid 50% off!! Why not at this point?
A potential buyer needs to protect themselves against this madness.
Bidding 50% off is no more insane that cram downs, mtg modifications, principal write downs and all the other insanity out there right now.”
************
agree in theory, but in practice it is just a waste of time. only transactions happening right now are true distress (i.e., forced).
3B(149)
You can’t get tomorrows price today. It’s like bidding $1.00 for C last month.
You end up wasting your time.
Same on the way up. In 2002 did you offer 2006 price?
Clot…day trading is for losers! You can’t win at it. At best you’ll be right 50% of the time. The commisions and short-term taxes on any gains (considering you have some income from other means) will slowly deplete your nest egg.
Listening to the AIG hearing in the Senate, what a mess.
AIG covered more than $440 billion in bonds Triple AAA top tranches of MBS – CDOs and stopped issuing those CDS in 2005. The holders of the CDOs still have not suffered a loss, and the market to market valuation issue caused the default on the CDS. AIG had to pay our on those CDS back in September even those there was no losses on the CDOs. We now own the CDOs the taxpayer, and we paid full market price for them.
AIG was on one side of these trades only. They only sold CDS, so far we the taxpayer has put in 180 Billion to bail
out these defaulted CDS contracts.Senator Bunning is POed said AIG is a lost cause, and will fight to not provide anymore
money for their bailout. Kohn from the Fed is a liar, says he does not know how much more taxpayer money will be needed for AIG.
Simple math Kohn you tool 440 – 180 means another 260 Billion to bail out the remaining CDS. Senator Corker is ripping into Kohn over
the fact that the there were no losses on the CDOs. Kohn from the Fed backpedding on why we could not just guarantee losses instead of forcing the
taxpayer to buy the CDOs, bunch of crooks.Senator Menendez calls for a stess test on AIG, and says there is no open-ended check
for the remaining risk with AIG.
Sigh and this is only one company with CDS exposure. There are still trillions of CDS exposure out there.
These stress tests and Menendez are the biggest circus ever! When each company fails the extremely lenient test, does this mean we will let them go kaput? Absolutely not. So why are we wasting time with this? Nothing but a show for the uneducated sheeple.
Dear Sue,
I heard that one should consider buying soon as prices will resume 7% to 8% appreciation starting this spring due to proximity to NYC and the fact that they’re not making anymore land. If I don’t buy soon, will I be priced out forever?
Not that I have ever visited Sue’s website BUT I have my own favorite realtors. I suggest a new version of the Dear Sue letter…
Dear Sue,
I heard that trying to sell your home FSBO was not only scary but potentially dangerous. Our parents always told us to “never talk to strangers” but for some reason we throw that advice out when we invite strangers into our home, a potential crime waiting to happen. Should I sell my home FSBO?
#153 makemoney:You can’t get tomorrows price today.
Well throw that theory out, it no longer is applicable in this madness.
Did we have cramdowns, and write downs, and mtg modifications in 2002? No we did not.
Everything that made for at least some type of rational and transparent real estate market has been thrown out the window.
Bid 50% off otherwise you have absolutely no protection.
Stu – I wrote Menendez and the rest of the NJ Delegation on the pending suspension and regulation of Credit Default Swaps that will be coming up for a vote as soon as Pelosi puts it up on the calendar, it has already passed Committee.
http://www.reuters.com/article/gc03/idUSTRE51B71Q20090212
#153 skeptic: only transactions happening right now are true distress (i.e., forced).
Yes, and there will be alot more of those going forward.
from the WSJ
************
More Americans struggled to pay their mortgage bills in the fourth quarter of 2008. A record 5.4 million U.S. homeowners with a mortgage, or nearly 12%, were either behind on payments or in foreclosure at the end of last year, according to an industry survey.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday the percentage of loans at least a month overdue or in foreclosure was up from 10% in the July-September quarter and up from about 8% a year earlier.
The sharpest increases in loans 90-days past due were in Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Texas and Mississippi, reflecting a spreading recession and massive job losses nationwide.
The report also showed the delinquency rates for fixed-rate mortgages climbed in the fourth quarter, another sign that layoffs are taking a toll on homeowners.
The percentage of loans at least 30 days past due rose to a record 7.88%, up from 6.99% in the third quarter and 5.82% a year earlier — the biggest quarterly jump for delinquencies since the survey began in 1972.
Filed at 7:31 a.m. ET
Lennar Corp.’s chief executive received a 2008 compensation package valued at about $1.1 million, a 6.4 percent pay cut from the prior year, reflecting the homebuilder’s decision to reign in executive pay as it struggles through the housing downturn.
Stuart Miller, who also holds the title of president, received a salary of $1 million, but no bonus or stock option awards, according to an analysis of documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission Wednesday.
“Did we have cramdowns, and write downs, and mtg modifications in 2002? No we did not.”
This is what contributed to irresponsible/predatory lending. For more insight, read this outstanding post by Tanta from Calculated Risk.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/10/just-say-yes-to-cram-downs.html
#153 skeptic: Even if it is a waste of time, if enough people did it, it would at least send a message.
What kind of reasonably rational/sane person would buy a house now at close to asking in this current environment.
Someone totally clueless? Someone who has money to burn, and does not care? How many are left out there who have money to burn and just don’t care?
Sean,
Only applies to ‘naked’ swaps. I think this is a good thing. What is your position?
3b,
“How many are left out there who have money to burn and just don’t care?”
I’ve been preaching the same sentiment for years. It’s not interest rates stupid…it’s the fact that no one has 20% to put down. Actually most are probably around 20% in debt.
#163 makemoney:Lennar Corp.’s chief executive received a 2008 compensation package valued at about $1.1 million, a 6.4 percent pay cut from the prior year.
I guess he is going to have to apply for a price plus card at Shop Rite.
My position is the naked swaps should be canceled and banned (that would be the hedgies), there is nothing wrong with hedging risk with regulated “Insurance” that has a reserve requirement, as long as you have skin in the game.
Sean,
Good. Never understood why naked shorts ever existed in the first place except for hedge funds to rip people off. Especially in the OTC arena, which is a whole other story of not enough regulation.
#167 Stu:Actually most are probably around 20% in debt.
Oh I would say so, and some probably alot more.Lets just pay off all the CC debt and auto loan debt etc. too while we are at it.
Bid 50% off current asking prices!!!
“naked shorts ”
Are they made of clear plastic?
“Are they made of clear plastic?”
Only in the butt!
Nick
i checked archive-org and it didnt get it. Oh well :(
budget tells the story:
Government collects taxes from Americans and debt tithes globally and then gives the money to the banks and funds the military.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12517
SAS
and if you think your going to get “change”
and you had a Chester Cat smile when Omama got elected, you best think again.
Bush = Omama
now, go buy your POS Cape, or hit F5 refresh on the yahoo finance page.
SAS
#129 [3b],
Exactly what I thought. The reporters are beyond stupid. The first followup question should be, “What did you do with the 500 grand, Mr. Klepper?”
i think i better dust the cover off that book:
Plato.
SAS
3b– I think the same message is sent when these houses sit on the market and no one even bids on them. If your house is priced anywhere close to reasonable, you will get bids, even now.
#167
“It’s not interest rates stupid…it’s the fact that no one has 20% to put down.”
maybe the case with houses requiring jumbos (above $625k in most NYC suburbs), but otherwise, no. You can still do FHA with 3.5% down.
the lack of activity for the conforming market is IMO due to two things:
(1) change in perception of buying as the safe, responsible (even profitable) thing to do. Complete 180 in psychology from “buy now or be priced out forever”
(2) fear of job loss.
[178] Sas
It’s called “The Republic” if memory serves.
I seem to recall agreeing with Polemachus more.
And now folks, except for some occasional late night lurking, I must bid the board adieu, do a Patient, and disappear for awhile during normal business hours.
Skep…
What percentage of newly originated mortgages are FHA?
I’m just curious.
Incredible. The Put/Call ratio is only 1.07 . Not good for the bulls.
#170 skeptic:If your house is priced anywhere close to reasonable, you will get bids, even now.
I do not think you can define reasoneable anymore with this disgusting bailout.
That is my whole point. Just way too much uncertainity in the market that was never there before.
True a would be seller having their house sit on the market for months, you would think that would send a message.
Perhaps my 50% bid off the ask price could be just the shock some of these people need.
And so I remain bid 50% off current ask price, if one even cares anymore.
I really liked that Tanta article from calculatedriskblog.com. Her arguments are extremely well thought out and have actually turned my opinion from opposed to pro bankrupcy judges having the ability to rewrite mortgages.
I am now of the opinion that they are best suited to put a check on runaway lending behavior.
“What percentage of newly originated mortgages are FHA?”
I’m sure someone who works in the business has more current info, but my understanding is that the majority of morgage issuance nationwide during the past couple of quarters has been FHA loans.
In 2005-06, only 1.8% of mortgages were FHA-backed. In 2008, that number rose to 17.1%. [My understanding is that this number has rocketed up in recent months as lending standards have otherwise grown tighter.]
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/04/your-money/mortgages/04fha.html
Nicholas (185) –
Yes, all of Tanta’s articles are gems. It is truly sad that we lost her when her insight would have been the most helpful.
Thanks Skep.
It would be an interesting stat to keep track of, as all of these new mortgages are going to be underwater, most likely, a few months after they are originated.
actually, FHA limits just went up again. Can borrow up to $729k in most NYC suburbs with only 3.5% down.
https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/hicostlook.cfm
SAS: Plato is the darling of those who believe that the unwashed masses are not to be trusted with governing themselves. Such an important undertaking can only be left to the educated, privileged elites, the philosepher kings (a name for a band?) He also made some powerful arguments that had no basis in religion, for a sphere of existence that was beyond the physical. (Sorry, 4 years of Jesuit education.)
S&P back to 1996 levels.
When’s re going down too?
I’d better ask Sue. Maybe she’s the inspiration for Suzanne researched this.
Can one short FHA? Sure, that’s what BGZ is for!
SAS; For the record, our military expenditures run about 3 percent of GDP. During WW II it was 24 percent. We waste a lot more cash on things that are a lot less important.
It’s amazing that the FED say’s it doesn’t need to advise Congress on who the trading partners are with AIG, because it may adversely effect their business, which is bankrupt. Evidently the Constitution has been re-written, and the Country is now ruled by the FED.
FED also won’t reveal the results of the so-called stress tests.
DL
you can agree with some of Plato’s ideas without agreeing with his entire body of philosophy.
Also, isnt the the following comment essentially what the founding fathers debated when forming this country and decided on building a democratic republic instead of a democracy. They did not want mob rule. In many ways our government was originally setup along the basic platoian idea you just pointed out.
Plato is the darling of those who believe that the unwashed masses are not to be trusted with governing themselves
actually, FHA limits just went up again. Can borrow up to $729k in most NYC suburbs with only 3.5% down.
If you’re expecting double digit inflation may not be a bad position to have.
24K DP to get you in a 700K home. Very small premium.
Lost your job? Times are tough? Just call Sue!
http://njexperts.com/2009/02/04/ive-lost-my-job-now-what/
“What percentage of newly originated mortgages are FHA?”
I’m sure someone who works in the business has more current info, but my understanding is that the majority of morgage issuance nationwide during the past couple of quarters has been FHA loans.
I have been tracking certain areas around Metro DC for the last year. The percentage of FHA and VA loans that are being issued is astounding with respect to historical standards. FHA and VA are producing some 66-75% of the home loans on the market for the last 6 months.
I mentioned this about 3-4 months ago as a disturbing trend. FHA is a lender of last resort, where you go when private industry wont lend to you. I began talks with several banks about home loans (last spring) and the common response was “I have a great loan for you, have you ever heard of FHA?”
is anyone aware of an open online Web site akin to NJ by the numbers that covers North Carolina? Who was the guy from NC who used to stop in now and then?
The more we look at what is happening in the Northeastern states the less excited we are about purchasing additional property here. Someone will need to pay the big bills coming due.
One caveat to the above information is that I’m tracking MRIS statistics which only produce information on houses sold via the multiple listing service.
2009 county loan limits
http://www.homeloans.va.gov/docs/2009_county_loan_limits.pdf
examples
http://www.homeloans.va.gov/docs/guaranty_calculation_examples.pdf
Re:#201 Shore Guy – start squealing like a pig and redneck Mitchell will reply back from his double wide.
#203 in mod with ’09 limits
John’s citi bonds are actually holding up decent. they took big hit two weeks ago but have since bounced back.
I bought some too so i’ve been watching. we’ll see very soon what their future holds, i hold the subs and assume they’ll either shoot to par like i originally suspected or drop to 60 cents on the dollar if gov decides to punish speculators like me and john. i highly doubt they will go to 20, 40 or 0, which is why im holding onto them collecting 8% coupons.
actually, FHA limits just went up again. Can borrow up to $729k in most NYC suburbs with only 3.5% down.
If you’re expecting double digit inflation may not be a bad position to have.
24K DP to get you in a 700K home. Very small premium.
Good luck qualifying without a documentable income of at least $175k, probably nearer to $200k. Or dare I say, wealthy at $250k.
Sean? Sean!? Do you hear banjos?
ithink
Just read the VA PDF’s
if i am reading them correctly, then you can still buy a home with no down payment (within certain cost restrictions)?
Veteran has full entitlement available and is purchasing a home for $300,000 where the county loan limit is $417,000. $417,000 X 25% = $104,250 Maximum Guaranty and Available Entitlement $300,000 X 25% = $75,000 Guaranty and Down Payment Combination Required Since VA’s guaranty is limited to the lesser of 25% of the county loan limit or 25% of the loan amount, VA will guaranty $75,000 on Veteran’s $300,000 loan in this county. A down payment should not be required.
Grim,
Your FHA example just illustrates the problem. We would never even think about making a contract to pay $700,000 for a house without putting down a minimum of $150,000 and more likely 200-250,000. To do otherwise leaves one open to too much downside potential.
Oh wait, if the price drops, one can walk away or get a cram down and someone else will bear the negative consequences. My mistake, it makes all the sense in the world.
On another note, National Flood Indurance will cover up to $300,000?
might we see a Dow of 6,5xx today? I bet we are at 5,xxx by labor day.
March 5 (Bloomberg) — Subic Bay in the Philippines is the busiest it’s been since the U.S. Navy moved out 16 years ago. The traffic surge is coming from ships all carrying the same cargo –nothing.
Last week, 19 vessels were anchored in the mountain-lined bay awaiting charters near an empty container terminal. The authorities at the port, 110 kilometers west of Manila, were expecting another eight this week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aIb2RKA.AWu8&refer=home#
“We would never even think about making a contract to pay $700,000 for a house without putting down a minimum of $150,000 and more likely 200-250,000. To do otherwise leaves one open to too much downside potential.
Oh wait, if the price drops, one can walk away or get a cram down and someone else will bear the negative consequences. My mistake, it makes all the sense in the world.”
**************
Shore– you hit the nail on the head in your last paragraph. What came before that is the old way of thinking. There is no incentive right now for putting down any more than you have to. The gov’t is punishing people who put down big downpayments.
On top of FHA and VA, you can also get high LTV morgages in many non-rural areas throught the Dept. of Agriculture.
“Oh wait, if the price drops, one can walk away or get a cram down and someone else will bear the negative consequences. My mistake, it makes all the sense in the world.”
That is totally our plan on our second home. The million dollar question is, will we qualify for an FHA owning a multi for income and tax shelter?
“The million dollar question is, will we qualify for an FHA owning a multi for income and tax shelter?”
not sure, but FHA finances multis as well as SFH, so it is worth exploring
What, no firing squads yet?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29532023
In an interview with CNBC, Representative Barney Frank says he wants to push for prosecution of the people who caused the country’s financial meltdown.
[snip]
No FHA, no purchase. Even though we can almost buy the new home outright (if we raid our retirement accounts). Way too much risk otherwise here in the Northeast. I am simply playing by their destructive rules!
“In an interview with CNBC, Representative Barney Frank says he wants to push for prosecution of the people who caused the country’s financial meltdown.”
He can prosecute himself? That should be interesting.
As we watch the market tumble and savings accounts etc paying just about nothing for safety. We are thinking very seriously of buying a place in a low-tax state, just to park the cash. Other than the likelihood of further price declines and carrying costs, disadvantages?
That was some bear market rally yesterday :P
VNO searching out new 52 wk low
SPG already found one
Shore Guy…Why don’t you hedge your equities and buy some shiny?
Disadvantages?
Squatters.
Better to max your retirement accounts than to throw that money into a house. If you go BK, retirement money is safe
question is would you rather risk your money or someone else’s
We do max out the retirement accounts, about $100k a year. We have no debt, and a number of years worth of living expenses.
One thought we had was to purchase the house as part of a self-directed retirement plan, and let the house be a retirement plan asset.
“Other than the likelihood of further price declines and carrying costs, disadvantages?”
not liquid
Stu,
I think that all of the focus on Au has caused a bit of a bubble there too. Also, even assuming it is fairly valued, I would not want to pump hundred’s of thousands into Au. You may recall I nearly purchased about $17,000 of it awhile back but backed out when the dealer wanted an “extra fee.” I grabbed my briefcase and walked out, never so glad to get back to the safe.
If I had a lot of money and was thinking of parking some of it in RE, I would look into acquiring some rental property in some well known college towns and what it would cost to hire a management company to deal with it.
“not liquid”
True enough there. Although it could be, literally, in a Cat 3-5 storm — we are looking at beach places. At least at the moment.
VNO new 52 wk low
Hi kettle,
VA = leverage, nothing more. it’s not $24k buys $700k house.
more like
you pay $1.00 & get to borrow $417k but have to pay mortgage on $416k worth of money. Want an additional $200k of leverage? It costs $25k… you now have to pay 416+175k mortgage each month PLUS VA funding fee (unless you’re over 30% disabled).
lengthy rambly bit:
you want a $417k house, you need to put down a minimum $1. BUT the less you put down the more the monthly mortgage payment is. Its just that you’re not risking your own downpayment a.k.a. skin in the game. If you foreclose, the bank doesn’t looose anything, fannie & freddie do.
But the bank doesn’t make money even if there is a fail-safe like fannie freddie va loan if you foreclose, so to make sure you can afford the mortage & the rate they’re loaning the money to you the bank is going to see how much you’re putting down, & what you’re brining in when they check out your pay stubs, so don’t think it’s just free money. It’s just skin in the game you don’t have to pay upfront, leverage.
In addition to the mortgage % each month to pay, the vet also has to pay a VA funding fee % each month (1-2%ish, I forget?) in addition to the rate you’re given by the bank. If you’re over 30% disabled, you don’t have to pay the funding fee, its just the % loan rate you get from the bank you pay = mortgage.
Let’s pretend….
So, you’re a vet, you bought a place in 1977 for $100k. It’s paid off, you’ve made big time money in selling it for $600k.
Scenarios –
a)
You & better half wanna condo for $400k but want the liquidity due to the current finance crisis, so you take up the VA, put in a $1 & keep your money liquid. You still have to pay a mortgage on a $400k house + the VA funding fee, just that your cash money didn’t get put in cos it’s not tied up.
b)
You want a monster house, in Caleephornia, cos they’re on sale right now, so you put in $1 for up to $400k & then throw down $250k skin for $600k worth of buying power (i dunno what the full percentages are, read the links i sent) & get something for 1 millionaire dollars. Ya’ still gotta pay the mortgage on the grand total though of $750k + VA funding fee & mortgage rate.
or C)
you’re back from WWII, you have some cash but the gov’t knows that if you dump that cash into the down payment on the house, you won’t have spending money for the rest of the economy. so they say, you put $1 down to get you in we leave you with your liquidity.
What are the rates on the FHA loans? I was talking to our realtor last weekend and she brought this up. I basicaaly told her that IF we buy, I would put as little down as possible as to secure the best rate. She told me I could easily buy with as little as 3.5% down. I figured she was BSing me. She did tell me that most of the deals she was doing were supported by FHA loans.
Skep:
“If I had a lot of money and was thinking of parking some of it in RE, I would look into acquiring some rental property in some well known college towns and what it would cost to hire a management company to deal with it.”
My brother is trying to buy up all of Columbus Ohio as we speak ;) He owns and self manages 4 student rented multis currently. He also coaches women’s crew.
Ket: True enough. The Jesuit in me is drawn to his concept of an ideal universe which is the model and basis for the version of reality we see. The populist in me finds his ideas on governing, although they were surely the best for his time and conditions, out of date. That probably has to do with our own state of society; its education, wealth, and social norms. Back in the dark ages, when life was nasty, brutish, and short (Hobbes, good heavens) I would probably have found much to like in enlightened despotism.
Rates on FHA loans are the same as conforming loan rates. Keep in mind there is regular conforming (417k and below) and jumbo conforming (above 417k, but below whatever the FHA limit in your area is). Jumbo conforming still way better than a regular jumbo rate.
I have not met a realtor yet who understands the FHA rules. When I’ve brought it up to them, they look at you like you are pure trash. It is new territory for most of them and given that most are lazy, they are disinclined to learn.
I obtained a VA loan in early 2004 for my home. I brought 1000$ to closing.
Like FHA, VA charges you 1.5% of the loan up front to cover private mortgage insurance for years while you pay down the first 20% of the mortgage. The 2.2% is always more then the insurance costs and if you pay dutifully or pay off early some portion of that money is returned to you (I read that somewhere?). That 2.2% can be rolled into the total amount being financed so you truely can obtain the house for zero down.
Here is more information about VA loans if you are interested. I was surprised to find out that the government is only on the hook for a maximum of 36,000$ if the loan goes into default. Considering that they already got 2.2% of the house value this doesn’t seem like such a bad deal for them if they control or used to control your pay.
That 1.5% should be 2.2%, the rates were dropped at the end of 2004 to 2.15%
http://www.answers.com/topic/va-loan
SKF to the moon today.
Stu (155)-
I have never day-traded anything other than 2x ultra-shorts…and only when the .vix and momentum were overwhelming.
I agree with your general premise on day-trading, but under the right circumstances, the top 2x shorts simply drown the rest of the market under their volumes, therefore making them ideal day-trading vehicles.
I wouldn’t have done as well as I did or built a core position based on “house money” had I not day-traded these issues. Given the right circumstances, I will do it again.
One caveat: this is the last time I go to the well with the 2x shorts. After the next pump cycle, I think they are done. I’ll either move to all-cash or look to get long if the Dow moves to the 4,500-6,000 area.
“SKF to the moon today.”
The day is not over unfortunately, nor have you sold ;)
“One caveat: this is the last time I go to the well with the 2x shorts. After the next pump cycle, I think they are done. I’ll either move to all-cash or look to get long if the Dow moves to the 4,500-6,000 area.”
Agreed!
I look forward to stock picking on the long side once again. That is my area of expertise and where I usually devour the indexes.
The college town idea is a good one. Especially midwestern state colleges where they are too far from population centers or other towns for people to commute.
Stu (244)-
I used to think I was a stock picker.
However, 2008 was the best year of my close to 30 years of investing…and all the profits came from shorting.
My thoughts on the stock market will never be the same again.
6616. Maybe Stewarts Root Beer will replace Citi on the Dow.
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Subway: Across the street from the Hoboken Path train station
Anyone going?
Clot…Shorting is something I never did before 2007. Hopefully soon I can forget it as well. In the long history of the stock market, contrarions have been beat up for the most part.
Speaking of getting beat up, in my hockey game last night, I have a dead leg from a near 100 MPH puck that I took in my left thigh and I blocked a point blank slapper (after the ref blew his whistle) with my right skate!
I look quite gimpy today.
thats not easy stu, i cant pick stocks or beat an index to save my life, even during 98-2000 boom i was picking the wrong tech stocks so if i ever give stock tip you should do opposite.
my best years of investing have been with diverse portfolios that aim to match the market with etfs and small amount of bonds and commodities.
cant wait to start building another long diverse market portfolio at dow 6,000. all this cash sitting around in mmkts makes me anxious.
DL
The populist in me finds his ideas on governing, although they were surely the best for his time and conditions, out of date.
To play devils advocate: how is the general population today significant different from the 1500’s. The average joe has very little knowledge of advanced concepts and how “stuff” they use everyday works. Look at the debates on things like genetic technology and Nano tech. The average joe doesnt have the first idea about the concepts involved
Just doing some quickl reading on FHA loans, seems they are ideal for people with good credit, ful doc, who don’t want to put a lot of cash down. Anyone know the spread on 30 yr conforming vs 30 yr jumbo conforming?
I would contend that the average joe has less knowledge of how things work then he did in the 1500’s.
In a specialized society with an adequately functioning trade system there is even less need to know how everything works. In fact I would say that it is almost counter productive to try and learn how everything works.
Now that the trade system is collapsing jack-of-all-trades are king again?
Good lord, they’re selling this off.
YTD performance has been impressive.
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1236286800000&chddm=15476.999999999998&cmpto=NYSE:FAZ;NYSE:SKF;NYSE:SRS;NYSE:DTO&cmptzos=-18000;-18000;-18000;-18000&q=NYSE:RFN&ntsp=0
“Anyone know the spread on 30 yr conforming vs 30 yr jumbo conforming?”
back when I was looking (January), it seemed to be small, about 25 bps (vs 150 bps or more for real jumbos)
Did BC Bob quit for lent too?
I read the Sue Adler comments with dismay. While that level of discussion may be starting to be the norm in here, taking it over to another blog in that fashion is more telling on the posters.
The initial comment by Clot was relevant if not professional. What followed was reminiscent of a pack of high school bullies tearing up the neighborhood on Halloween. The personal attacks and suggestions for alternative income streams crossed a line.
Not to beat the dead horse, but this is simply fabulous — “Catching People In Your Web.”
A black widow!
—————————–
http://sueadler.blogspot.com/2008/12/sues-interview-w-dave-jenks-on-shift.html
Last month I was interviewed by Dave Jenks, head of research and development of Keller Williams International, for “Shift”, Gary Keller’s new book for the real estate community, about “how top agents tackle tough times. Its not about the market. Its about what you do.”
Below is the link to my interview on Tactic #6, Catching People In Your Web.
—————————–
getting near 100
#252
keep in mind that FHA rates are the same as other conforming rates. In other words, doing FHA shouldn’t result in a higher rate than you would get otherwise
Nick
In a specialized society with an adequately functioning trade system there is even less need to know how everything works. In fact I would say that it is almost counter productive to try and learn how everything works.
How can a citizen effectively participate in government if they can form an educated opinion on the matter at hand?
I dont necessarily disagree with yuor point. But in that scenario a “ruling class” would seem to be a necessary feature. A group that is capable of understanding the fundamental issues at hand and can effectively decide for the masses. otherwise you are running government by the lowest common denominator
got to be some serious doubt within the O team about their plans at this point.
pgc 258 – Well said!
Shore 217…that would be Barney himself
What if the Dow falls below 1000, say it goes to 875. That would be fun to watch. I am starting to like this..watching the markets fall everyday..getting sadistic..I am actually disappointed when the markets have an up day
Kettle,
Maybe I misread the intent of your comment. I didn’t read that it only applied to participating in government and creation of a ruling class.
I look at it mostly from a specialization sort of view. I don’t know how to raise cattle or farm land but it doesn’t stop me from eating food. I don’t know how fix automobiles but it doesn’t stop me from driving a car. I don’t know how to repair HVAC systems but I don’t live out in the cold.
I do know how internet telecommunication systems work so if your VOIP system stops working then give me a call.
My intent was to point out that specialization is one of the keys to the success of the human race and one of our brightest points. Literally we are able to stand on the backs of giants to accomplish greater things as a society then we could as individuals.
I also believe that the political process is a very personal issue and that all citizens should participate. It is one of the transcendant skills that cannot be “outsourced”.
A bus driver who recently paid $800,000 for a house, and is now facing foreclosure, “feels attacked by bloggers”:
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/2009/03/05/acosta.foreclosure.outrage.cnn
Ket: I hate it when I have to think this late at night (9:48 PM my time) and after a bottle of wine. IK agree that on a broad level, most of us don’t know much about most things. And when it comes to specialized fields of knowledge, there are few experts which is why they get paid alot for their knowledge (brain surgeons, rocket scientists). When it comes to living in civil societies however, I think most of us have a basic knowledge of what it takes to successfully get along with our neighbors, whether they be individuals, towns or countries, and what sort of conditions contibute to our own well being and prosperity. Security and the ability pursue happiness as we define it, is paramount. In a Platonic society, the “good” is defined by the elite. Whereas in the middle ages most would be content to have an outside authority make those choices, I think for cultural reasons, most in the west would prefer to make those choices themselves.
Nick,
I agree with you in general. I was attempting to challenge the idea that the modern average joe is significantly different from the 1500’s average joe in terms of their ability to participate in government.
My point is not that you should be able to raise cattle of build an HVAC unit, but that you should have a basic working knowledge of the underlying principles. I was arguing that if the average joe does not have a basic working understanding of the principles that their society is based on and growing on, that they can not effectively participate in the process of government in an enlightened matter and you end up with rule by the lowest common denominator.
This is not necessarily my personal point of view, i was challenging DL’s earlier comment.
zack, glad you’re getting off from dow plunge, unfortunately you wont enjoy drinking from the toilet bowl half as much.
great speach from Gordon Brown imo…
The Premier called on the US to use its might to lead the world out of economic catastrophe with green technology.
And he insisted both the UK and the US must invest heavily in companies developing green technology like the car industry.
The PM made it clear he wants Americans to wean themselves off their dependence on oil.
He said: “It is only by investing in environmental technology that we can end the dictatorship of oil.
“It is only by tackling climate change that we create the millions of green jobs we need.
“Let us work together for a low carbon recovery worldwide.
Mr Brown issued a stern warning against “protectionism” – saying putting up the shutters to shelter US jobs from rivals was a recipe for disaster.
The Premier also called on world leaders to deliver on their promise to ensure every child in the world goes to school.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article2292830.ece
DL,
just trying to explore an interesting debate…. you may commence drinking!
Where are you located at, the UK?
President Obama met with Treasury Secretary Geithner today around 2:30 today and Obama should be making remarks now.
Methinks there won’t be any pickup game during the meeting.
“The Premier called on the US to use its might to lead the world out of economic catastrophe with green technology.”
Jesus, we are doomed, is this the best these world leaders can come up with.
Prediction. Green technology will be the real estate industry of the next decade, and there will be no significant decrease in greenhouse gas output.
Ahh, I got where I missed it…
Platonic society
My apolgy for reading too many technical manuals and not enough philosophy.
I’m more in line with Socrates when it comes to knowledge, power, and ruling-class.
http://www.blupete.com/Literature/Biographies/Philosophy/Plato.htm
(274) –
“is this the best these world leaders can come up with”
What are your suggestions?
#274
Green technology..my a$$.
They should focus on rewarding good behaviour and reducing debt burden of average folk.
#268
“A bus driver who recently paid $800,000 for a house, and is now facing foreclosure, “feels attacked by bloggers”:”
******
I have yet to see a report on this issue in which anyone in the MSM questions the premise that maintaining high house prices is unequivocally good
What if the Dow falls below 1000, say it goes to 875.
Those who pick bottoms get brown fingers.
“They should focus on rewarding good behaviour and reducing debt burden of average folk.”
Amen brotha!
We can go green when we got some.
JB, creating leadership in new technologies and weaning ourselves off fossil fuels is alot different than trading up mcmansions.
i see it as one of the most valuable ways to spend stimulus, creates long term benefits and jobs into the future and can keep gm in business.
am curious why you dont see green tech reducing pollution output?
#258 pgc: Perhaps, but enough is enough. Which is worse us acting like HS bullies, or Sue Adler and so many others in that profession who will lie and provide false date to people all in the quest to earn a commission?
We are not talking about a car, or a washer, but a house.
I would rather be a bully than a liar.
Clot you got your wish, SRS topped out at 100.00 today.
I cashed out 150 shares at 99.43 bought at $79.
Couldn’t take the roller coaster ride anymore.
thanks again for your tips on these, the proceeds went to a worthy cause!
salud
if the Dow falls below 1000, say it goes to 875
Actually, I’d take that as a signal to buy.
I don’t know much about philosophy….in college i was too busy studying Euripides (pants off)…..Bah dum dum!
“Couldn’t take the roller coaster ride anymore.”
I don’t even think we climbed the first large hill yet. I didn’t get my sell. If unemployment numbers are bad tomorrow, I’ll get it at the open.
What happens to the markets tomorrow with the release of the govt’s unemployment numbers for Feb, with projections for posssibly 700k or more?
Located in Deutschland but spend a fair amount of time in places that weren’t countries when I got here.
IMO, pollution problem won’t be solved until it gets too expensive for people to drive everywhere. everyone says they are for green tech, but until it makes economic sense, people won’t buy it
pgc (258)-
“The initial comment by Clot was relevant if not professional.”
You put up a blog, you are a public person. Get ready for the comments, or don’t host a blog. To me, it was more telling that Ms. Adler could not respond to the charges that she was posting fraudulent and misleading sales data (which, IMO, she did and is doing).
Consumers have a right to be angry at behavior like Ms. Adler’s, and I’m in no way ready to wear the reputation that a co-member of NAR has unfortunately earned for me by dint of exploiting information asymmetry in order to swindle the public.
Ms. Adler deserves to be called to account by the public and has, in fact, invited it by her actions. To skulk away at the first sign that the public has questions for her is no less than utter cowardice. In my mind, the deletions of posts and responses is the equivalent of an admission of guilt.
Ms. Adler, anytime you’d like to debate me- in public or online- please let me know. The offer remains open.
this is what I’m talking about (from the WSJ):
***********
Michael J. Jackson, chief executive of AutoNation Inc., said on Thursday that the surest way to reduce fuel consumption and wean the country off foreign oil is to make consumers pay more at the pump.
If the government increased gas taxes to push prices higher, drivers would opt for smaller, more-fuel efficient cars and drive less, he said at the Wall Street Journal’s ECO:nonics conference here.
“We need more expensive gasoline to change consumer behavior,” Mr. Jackson said. Otherwise, Americans will continue to favor big vehicles, not matter what kind of fuel-economy standards the government imposes on auto makers. Four dollars a gallon, he added, “is a good start.”
I would rather be a bully than a liar.
Poor behavior is not an excuse for poor behavior.
Nick (292)-
You ready to tell us you never went to the zoo and taunted the monkeys behind the bars?
#292 Nicholas: True, but that is what happens sometimes we are all human, and can all get emotional from time to time.
But I can sleep at night.
skep-tic says:
IMO, pollution problem won’t be solved until it gets too expensive for people to drive everywhere.
I agree, im all for increasing of gas taxes like eu. the proposed tax per mile driven has me scratching my head.
6594. It seems like forever ago that asking whether folks thought the Dow would hit 9xxx wat met with jeers. At this point, it would not shock me if the Dow bottoms at 1/3 its peak value . What is that, around 4600?
Clotpoll writes: “Consumers have a right to be angry at behavior like Ms. Adler’s, and I’m in no way ready to wear the reputation that a co-member of NAR has unfortunately earned for me by dint of exploiting information asymmetry in order to swindle the public.”
Well put. Some of the comments did cross a line, but others were substantive questions based upon the fraudulent graph (“we’ve hit bottom, now is the time to buy!”) and fraudulent sales statistics (claiming homes that sold for 30% below asking price sold for 6% below asking).
It’s worth mentioning that before the ‘insult’ posts were made, Adler deleted the substantive posts which challenged her lies. The ‘insults’ then followed, and then they, along with the entire “we’ve hit bottom” thread was deleted.
Stu claims Adler is a “very reasonable” realtor, so perhaps he can shed some light:
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/02/03/zillow-us-housing-market-lost-33-trillion/#comment-264209
Veto 281,
I agree with JB. Green isnt gonna help. a truly “Green infrastructure” would require a substantially different lifestyle. There is no magically green tech that would allow BAU.
Look, I’m all for “Green Technology”, hell, I worked in the industry for 5 yeras before it was “cool”. But the idea that windmills, fuel cells, solar panels, or “new fuels” are going to lead us anywhere, let alone out a deep global economic recession is simply ridiculous.
Contrary to popular belief amongst Obamabots, “green technology” has been around for a long, long time. The search for non carbon based fuels goes back to before WII and the boron fuels initiative. We have spent billions, both public and private, to date on all forms of energy technology, burning hydrocarbons is still the best, most efficient way of producing energy.
However, the real reason the “green technology will save us” nonsense bothers me, is that it’s just a recycled empty platitude. Just like “taxing the rich” will solve all of our problems. It’s basically way to look as if you’re doing something without actually asking anyone to sacrifice a single thing.
If you want meaningful CO2 emission cuts today, then you need to severely cut the standard of living of every human being on the planet – TODAY. Actually, cutting the number of human beings would be even better, but nobody is calling for genocide to save the plant – yet. That is of course politically toxic. It goes counter to the human experience of striving to increase your standard of living. Brown and Obama are simply saying that all we need to do is spend a bunch of money so we don’t have to suffer any pain today, so that we might have some improvements 35 years from now. Which is fine, but it’s not the thing to lead a world community out of an economic depression, or make significant contributions to reduction in GHG’s.
What would I do? Get the grid on as much nuclear power as possible as soon as possible. Teach people how to conserve energy, stop subsidizing 5000 sg.ft McMansions, build LNG terminals, incentivize entrpeneurs in energy technology instead taxing the shit out of them, build a decent railway system to major population centers and allow it to be privitized if that makes it work better/cheaper, just to name a few.
Clotpoll writes: “Consumers have a right to be angry at behavior like Ms. Adler’s, and I’m in no way ready to wear the reputation that a co-member of NAR has unfortunately earned for me by dint of exploiting information asymmetry in order to swindle the public.”
I agree. Adler’s comments are at best unbelievably misinformed and at worst deliberately misleading. Frankly I’m amazed at how low some will go to push families into making the biggest purchase of their life to increase commission.
“What happens to the markets tomorrow with the release of the govt’s unemployment numbers for Feb, with projections for posssibly 700k or more?”
I don’t think it will be a market moving event but we’ll continue to drift lower.
Let me add a carbon tax, in which every penny is directed right back to the tax paying public, including those who make over 250k a year.
instead, because O is a coward, we are going to get a half measure cap and trade boondoggle which will do nothing more than create another gigantic DC shitbomb full of special interest hack appointees. Which by the way, has already failed miserably in the liberal utopia of western Europe.
Given that I didn’t read the comments on Sue’s website that were posted you can pretty much categorize my statements in an after-the-fact mode.
I have seen a lot of people use internet forums to flame other people and use anonymity as a shield. I have personally directed online communities of hundreds of people and seen all kinds of stuff go down. I once had to deal with someone threatening the life/bodily harm of someone in my community.
Using roleplaying terminology (RPG) the internet causes people who are almost always categorized as lawful/neutral to become chaotic/neutral in demeanor. This type of behavior change is unacceptable. If you wouldn’t say something like that to your friends and relatives DON’T say it to random people on the internet. For some reason we all turn into Simon Cowell when given the gift of anonymity.
Most of us think Simon Cowell is an ass even though he is right. I would hate to think of what the would would be like if everyone acted like him.
I would hate to think of what the world would be like if everyone acted like him [Simon Cowell].
What if the Dow falls below 1000, say it goes to 875. That would be fun to watch. I am starting to like this..watching the markets fall everyday..getting sadistic..I am actually disappointed when the markets have an up day
Zach,
You must be a communist. Every 500 point swe loose on the dow it’s at least 100,000 people join unemployment.
I like Simon Cowell, and I act like him all the time.
I don’t notice people turning into pillars of salt after I am around them. Many of these people are actually my friends and seem to choose to hang out with me. It can’t be because they are sucking up to me for my connections or my money, because I don’t have either. I have to assume it’s friendship.
I think the world needs more Simon Cowells. God knows we have enough clueless and extroverted “gifted and talented” people, who will not shut up, go away or demur whenever any type of camera is pointed at their gaping, noisy maws.
Nicholas, if you saw Bernard Madoff on the street, what would you say? Hello?
make (305)-
Is that 100K on the actual number of unemployed, or the gubmint’s baked and manipulated number?
Nicholas,
What do you have against Simon Cowell? What do you think Simon Cowell would think of those comments?
I think that Simon Cowell would accept his sh!t sandwich like I intended it.
Nice boots, you suck, nice boots.
Been reading thsi Michael Panzer guy’s new book, When Giants Fall, good book, he has a good website too:
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/
Nicholas,
I am offended by your comments, as I am sure Simon is, and Simon’s mother and family.
The Apocalypse is anon…the sign of the beast….
GEN ELECTRIC CO(NYSE: GE)
After Hours: 6.66
Last Trade: 6.66
Trade Time: 4:00pm ET
clot, taunting innocent monkeys would be considered cruel, heckling that deceptive website is not the same thing. she should be urging caution or at least neutrality to potential buyers given the risks of severe price declines during this crisis. imo her sales pitch propaganda is beyond unethical. purposely leaving out relevant information about the overall level of house sales to unsuspecting home buyers is equal to lying about house sales volume. her disregard of the current downturn is result of nar refusal to shoulder any blame for this crisis as grim once mentioned, and its result of the NAR’s aggressive unregulated sales techniques.
truth is most home buyers dont have hours per day to spend on blogs and study real estate trends, its sad that she is in position of trust and able to get away with distorting the facts like that.
i didnt read all your comments but i dont see you crossing any lines calling her out.
Clot,
I have respect for people who can maintain the way that they act in daily life to the way they act on the internet. That is how it should be.
I’m just cautioning on the perils of the internet. It is from my personal experience of course.
Is that 100K on the actual number of unemployed, or the gubmint’s baked and manipulated number?
Baked, toasted and served well done.
Everyone here knows where I sit and I always urge everyone to make sure their immediate familly is safe, and well off.
But how can you have pleasure of your neigboor loosing his job or everyone’s 401 and retirement is gone.
Anyone who works for a salary is at risk these days. How do you know this friday is not gonna be you in the HR with a pink slip in your hands.
#305,
We need a system wide reboot. Make way for the new generation..the older generation had their best times, but they abused the good times.
Let the newer generation now work and make money and support the stocks going forward instead of bailing out older folks.
Time is up for the baby boomers. Think about it, most people in Congress, CEO’s, BOD are all baby boomers and hence most policies coming out of them will support their bottom line..
I am offended by your comments, as I am sure Simon is, and Simon’s mother and family.
HEHEHE,
I not sure but I think the above statement proves my point. I would reference Simon Cowell in daily conversation just like I have done here. He is a public figure and has put himself out for comments. Even if his behavior is purely contrived.
Your statement on the other hand is not something that you would say to another directly.
Really? Your offended because I said something true about Simon Cowell. That seems far fetched. I will call it like I see it. You are exaggerating (lying). You wouldn’t do that to someone if you interacted with them daily because they would begin to discount everything you say as exaggerated or untrue.
Why you feel the need to be chaotic on the internet is interesting. Possibly explain?
“GEN ELECTRIC CO(NYSE: GE)
After Hours: 6.66
Last Trade: 6.66”
Putting a positive spin on this, when was the last time GE was trading at over 6 times C? By this measure, GE is doing well and its executives deserve heafty bonuses.
#301 Perhaps. Or it just might push the entire emarket over the cliff.
“SAS; For the record, our military expenditures run about 3 percent of GDP”
you should know by now I don’t deal with matters that are on “the record”.
There is no real record.
and there is always “off record”
aka. black budget.
SAS
no body likes an asshole, not even himself.
I like Simon Cowell, and I act like him all the time.
get it?
Zack,
I had a conversation with a 50+ coworker of mine (they all seem to be 50+ where I work) and asked him if the changes in the market affected his retirement plans.
“Of course!” was his reply. He plans on working longer now since he doesn’t feel he has enough for him and his wife to live on comfortably.
I asked him if he gave any thought to how that would impact the upward mobility of the younger workers, like myself.
#320
We are already off the cliff. The question is if there is a small ledge somewhere where we can fall instead of crashing all the way down. I don’t understand why a 50% drop in the stock market is not considered a crash?!
JBJB, that was insightful explanation, i would have thought that brown was refering to supporting the ideas that you suggested when he says green technology but i probably dont know enough about it to say so. i share your frustration with the politics but also think any baby steps toward energy efficiency and green technology are steps in the right direction, especially if we can stop funding south american and miseast psychopaths while simultaneously cornering the green industry. agreed we need to slow the consumption and maybe even population or maybe tax the both of them.
Up until last year, i would have expected the private sector to figure the green thing out but since keynes is throwing money from ben’s helicopter anyway, i would hope that we use a decent portion to plant some green seeds.
Clot. big fan of cowell too, he is a sweetheart if you consider paula plays with people’s futures by making them think they have a career ahead of them if they in fact dont. he does justice by not blowing smoke.
“Fed Refuses to Release Bank Data, Insists on Secrecy”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=aG0_2ZIA96TI
Nicholas says:
March 5, 2009 at 5:18 pm
I asked him if he gave any thought to how that would impact the upward mobility of the younger workers, like myself.
Nik: suck it up and (1) shut up; or (2) quit…..if I was Mr. 50+, I would tell you to go f— yourself….I think you are GenX, but this attitude sounds like GenY……
I pity the folks who have to work in their old age just to meet thier daily expenses. All the work they did in their lifetimes turned to be futile.
The whole point is to work and make (save!) money when you are young and healthy so that you can take care of yourself when one is old and weak.
Instead of paying toll and getting stuck on the freeway enroute to work when you are in your 60’s, one should be chilling out, watching the grass grow, enjoying grandchildren, sighseeing etc etc.
Instead, No, our baby boomers decided to buy a highend condo in Miami with Granite countertops and buy a harley using home equity and now they are in the ditch, having to work for the rest of their lives to pay off debts!
“Bank of America Says Bonus Disclosure Will Harm It”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDJsoWxnk740&refer=home
Zack says:
March 5, 2009 at 5:29 pm
I pity the folks who have to work in their old age just to meet thier daily expenses. All the work they did in their lifetimes turned to be futile.
The whole point is to work and make (save!) money when you are young and healthy so that you can take care of yourself when one is old and weak.
Instead of paying toll and getting stuck on the freeway enroute to work when you are in your 60’s, one should be chilling out, watching the grass grow, enjoying grandchildren, sighseeing etc etc.
Instead, No, our baby boomers decided to buy a highend condo in Miami with Granite countertops and buy a harley using home equity and now they are in the ditch, having to work for the rest of their lives to pay off debts!
Z: What if you enjoy your job and have good work/life balance?
Zack,
i hope you have been following the theme of all my posts over the years.
(i don’t know how long you have been here)
If you have, your post may need an overhaul.
If you have not, keep an eye out. Might reconsider some of your points.
If you want me to piss off, carry on then.
SAS
I’m in the mood for a bike ride, think I will for one soon,
SAS
Zack:
“Instead, No, our baby boomers decided to buy a highend…”
The operative word that is missing is *SOME*…
All generalizations are bad!
S
#331,
That’s great if one is in that poistion,
but most 60+ that I know of are heavily in debt.
SS and pensions have disappeared, stocks in shambles, can’t downsize house without taking a big hit.
No choice but to work. Their children who they raised are in no position to take care of them.
High healthcare costs are eating them alive.
Hence most are relocating to latin america where it is cheaper.
This country is unaffordable for all groups of people..
Here’s something to add to the gloom and doom.
Karl Denninger’s short list of what’s dead if the government doesn’t do something to head off the coming implosion.
http://market-ticker.org/archives/852-Whats-Dead-Short-Answer-All-Of-It.html
“Really? Your offended because I said something true about Simon Cowell. That seems far fetched. I will call it like I see it. You are exaggerating (lying). You wouldn’t do that to someone if you interacted with them daily because they would begin to discount everything you say as exaggerated or untrue.”
You expressed a negative opinion of an individual. Your view of the truth. How is that any different than anything else that’s been said? It gains some import because you typed it? You are the epitome of the pot calling the kettle black. No offense kettle.
Qwerty:
I do not justify the lies in Sue’s blog in any way. She makes a decent living selling homes and if it is her prerogative to deceive, then she must live by the repercussions. Honestly, she is no different than 99% of the realtors out there. Her biggest mistake in judgment was joining the conversation here.
She has been more than generous in providing us a ton of information for comps (saving us lots of dough) and is very reasonable in person when you discuss the economy of real estate with her. I won’t repeat a few things she has uttered, but they were very Grim like and almost Gary like. Regardless of her questionable blog practices and repetition of the NAR propaganda, she is successful at what she does. If you feel that she is ripping people off by selling them homes in a falling market, so be it. A realtor who tells potential clients not to buy yet will end up working along Frank at the local Burger King.
I repeat, her biggest mistake was posting here. I liken it to a racist complaining about affirmative action at a NAACP rally.
By the way, I like the non-partisan Qwerty a lot better than the pre-election Qwerty.
Dow, S&P Hit 12-Year Lows on GE, GM Woes; Nasdaq at 6-Year Lows
damn. was away from the cpu all day and now seeing that the dow has hit 6594.
!!!!!!!!!
in jan, my prediction was that it would land between 6500-10,000 … but since we KNOW things are going to get worse … 5500??
The FED won’t release the AIG trading partners because it would reveal that most of the bailout supports foreign interests. Remember Bush & Obama are not Republican & Democrat, they are Globalists. The last American President was D.D.E. Everyone after him morphed into Globalists.
well, scratch that bike ride.
I just pig out on sweet potatoes & BBQ chicken.
well, looks like I will be hanging out in the blogosphere 2night.
ha, lucky you.
SAS
make money #316
“But how can you have pleasure of your neigboor loosing his job or everyone’s 401 and retirement is gone.”
I think for some it is a relief that housing is (or even will be) more affordable. Not definitely, schadenfreude.
Also, the notion that “relatively speaking” the ones that hold normal jobs aren’t so “worse off”.
The pity is that the financial geniuses are all nicely enjoying their vacations with their trophy wives. In the old days, the invaders were looting others’ savings and were living high life. In the modern times, the dorky smart guys do the same. This is not an invite for a Pol Pot, though.
S
confused ie. TPTB, there is a global interest that has wealth and uses it’s influence in many sovereign countries. Not only that I SUSPECT that GS hedged 60-80 billion in subprime cdo sludge with mostly AIG CDS contracts, they really don’t want to have to mark to market and have the big losses which Goldman was so immune to. Difference between Bear Stearns and GS, goldman’s reputation and government ‘plants'(i.e Paulson) otherwise materially the businesses were not terribly different.
#282 3b
No I don’t buy it. It does not excuse the bullying
The car dealer is as guilty as the realtor. They quite happily cashed in the HELOC check for the Vette. Or signed the person into the 5series for the driveway on the 72mth with a balloon for the depreciating asset that is worth 1Xincome going out the door.
“The last American President was D.D.E.”
well, it has been pretty much straight downhill since him
RE: Sue Adler’s “biggest mistake in judgment was joining the conversation here.”
Her biggest mistake is her ongoing deliberate attempts to deceive consumers, not her web surfing habits.
RE: “If you feel that she is ripping people off by selling them homes in a falling market, so be it.”
Huh? Selling homes in a falling market is fine, telling people we’ve “hit bottom” and publishing false sales data is another story. At issue here is someone trying to defraud consumers.
It’s a little like trying to catch a falling knife. Really though the realtor story has not changed which is piss poor marketing.
Gupta Is Out of the Running for Surgeon General
Looks like another one with Turbo Tax issues. Obama should really just nationalize Turbo Tax. /snark
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/05/gupta-is-out-of-the-running-for-surgeon-general/?hp
It only looks different: Both parties love big government
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/226/story/63361.html
oh god, Jon Stewart really did a great job screwing over anti-bailout sentiment for the hatchet job he did on Santelli trying to associate him with Jim Cramer and the rest of the cheerleaders of bailouts. Every kid at Rutgers today was 100% behind a homeowner bailout now because the Daily show made fun of someone who was against it.
#290 Clot
And its a public forum stand outside her office leafleting people approaching her office.
Her lack of response is not nescessarily an unwillingness to debate. Maybe it is just don’t bait the troll.
I get your anger at the industry you are a part off, but if she is breaking the rules, I’m sure you would be the first to drop a dime to the Realtor board.
I understand why you are required to be a member of the NAR. But if Grim can stand up to them on bad numbers, you can stand up on policy. I know you have a bigger nut in the game, with a franchise, but I don’t think getting kicked out of the NAR would be something you would lose sleep over.
Even judges extend professional courtesy to the ambulance chasers.
There really needs to be a law to detain anyone who would write this sort of thing or reposts it. This is doing nothing but needlessly causing fear and panic. Look, you can jump at damn shadows all the hell you want, but I refuse to be cowed by the stock or real estate markets. I refuse to give my damn house and stocks away. I will NEVER do the unamerican thing and sell short. I’d rather run through hell carrying two damn buckets of gasoline than to stoop that low.
Frank says:
March 5, 2009 at 5:40 pm
Here’s something to add to the gloom and doom.
Karl Denninger’s short list of what’s dead if the government doesn’t do something to head off the coming implosion.
http://market-ticker.org/archives/852-Whats-Dead-Short-Answer-All-Of-It.html
I had a chat with a colleague yesterday who thinks that civil unrest is coming soon to a town near you thanks to the downturn. James Howard Kunstler and others have proclaimed that formerly middle-class (wealthy by global standards) Americans will start to riot when things get really ugly and they realize that their houses, cars, steak dinners, and Disney vacations aren’t coming back.
I beg to differ though…. most Americans I know are simply too lazy to riot or muster any form of protest. Protesting would require putting down the potato chip bag and the PS3 controller.
Mmm… potato chips…
“I’d rather run through hell carrying two damn buckets of gasoline”
thats a good one. I don’t think I’ve heard this one before.
reinvestor101, you should make a greatest hits album.
SAS
chi (328)-
Hear, hear. As if the existence of an older co-worker is a barrier to advancement. Insane.
Zack (329)-
Most people who walk this planet work their entire lives for a pittance, are used as pawns by those of greater means and cunning, then die slow, painful, agonizing deaths. That’s just the way it is.
Stu (338)-
There is nothing dishonest about selling any product or service into a declining market. What’s dishonest is using cooked statistics to create or justify the sale.
Given the damn money these terrorists have fleeced from me forcing my ass into a sling, you better be damn glad I’ve restrained myself from getting restless. Believe me, I have felt like rioting somewhere and yelling burn baby burn.
Don’t push me…..I’m close to the edge…I don’t want to lose my head…it like a jungle sometime…hahaha…I don’t how I keep from going under…hahaha
jmacdaddio says:
March 5, 2009 at 6:30 pm
I had a chat with a colleague yesterday who thinks that civil unrest is coming soon to a town near you thanks to the downturn. James Howard Kunstler and others have proclaimed that formerly middle-class (wealthy by global standards) Americans will start to riot when things get really ugly and they realize that their houses, cars, steak dinners, and Disney vacations aren’t coming back.
Two stories to illustrate why the B.O. plan stinks.
Tom and Suzie buy a $600,000 house. Thy put down $200,000 and, even though the house appreciates to $700,000 in value, they pay extra each month to shorten the term of their mortgage. As values decline, they continue to pay extra so that, when the bubble bursts and the house declines to a value of $300,000 they are not underwater.
Dick and Jane buy the same house across the street. They put down nothing. When the house value went up,to $700,000 they pulled out a hundred grand for toys and whatnot. Then, they utilized their option arm to pay less than the amount due to have an extra $100,000 for killer vacationa and the like. When the bubble burst, they owed $800,000, but had put virtually NOTHING into the house and were now $500,000 under water.
B.O. said, I smell something rotten in the housing market, and pushed through legislation to RESCUE Dick and Jane and “keep them in their house” and cut the outstanding balance to what the house is worth $300,000.
So, the people who do the right thing end up in the same place as Jane and Big Dick, he is a large barrel-chested guy after all, but instead of brown bagging it, scrimping on vacations, new cars, boats, and the like, Big Dick and Jane have all the toys, and the meomries of good times paid by YOU and ME and the other people who did the right thing. Tom and Suzie, what putzes, huh.
“Most people who walk this planet work their entire lives for a pittance, are used as pawns by those of greater means and cunning, then die slow, painful, agonizing deaths. That’s just the way it is.”
CLot,
I see you are a fan of Russian literature.
ben (351)-
Who cares? Rutgers’ students might as well be a herd of 30,000 alpacas. In fact, 30,000 alpacas would probably demonstrate more independence of thought, as they haven’t been exposed to a lifetime of hovering parents, indolent and scheming educators and bumbling apparatchiks of a crumbling, low-level soci@list bureaucracy.
Civil Unrest? I dunno.
Believe it or not there are some people who are perfectly happy. They still have jobs and income. I think this stuff is horrible, but cannot really complain.
#359 – Don’t push me…..I’m close to the edge…
Word B! Saddle River in tha hizzy.
UES better step back, we keep it real!
Shore (361)-
Tolstoy above all!
351. I think the John Stewart piece was amazing. On par with the Colbert act at the Presidential Press Party a few years back. I really think that this spells the end of CNBC. He skewered people that have been on that show for years. Made them look worse than I could imagine. I loved it. Bye Bye CNBC.
Believe me, I’m no fan of “That One”, but you little analogy is off. Dick and Jane helped the economy by taking out cash to spend. Their financing of their memories helped American business. Tom and Suzie, on the other hand, have done nothing for anyone other than themselves by hoarding their damn money and not spending. They could have had good memories also hadn’t they been cheapskates.
I like Dick and Jane better. They did more to help the economy.
Shore Guy says:
March 5, 2009 at 6:44 pm
Two stories to illustrate why the B.O. plan stinks.
Tom and Suzie buy a $600,000 house. Thy put down $200,000 and, even though the house appreciates to $700,000 in value, they pay extra each month to shorten the term of their mortgage. As values decline, they continue to pay extra so that, when the bubble bursts and the house declines to a value of $300,000 they are not underwater.
Dick and Jane buy the same house across the street. They put down nothing. When the house value went up,to $700,000 they pulled out a hundred grand for toys and whatnot. Then, they utilized their option arm to pay less than the amount due to have an extra $100,000 for killer vacationa and the like. When the bubble burst, they owed $800,000, but had put virtually NOTHING into the house and were now $500,000 under water.
B.O. said, I smell something rotten in the housing market, and pushed through legislation to RESCUE Dick and Jane and “keep them in their house” and cut the outstanding balance to what the house is worth $300,000.
So, the people who do the right thing end up in the same place as Jane and Big Dick, he is a large barrel-chested guy after all, but instead of brown bagging it, scrimping on vacations, new cars, boats, and the like, Big Dick and Jane have all the toys, and the meomries of good times paid by YOU and ME and the other people who did the right thing. Tom and Suzie, what putzes, huh.
You cannot get blood from a stone though reinvestor. People are tapped out and lines of credit have been shrunken for even good customers. Simple math working against consumer driven demand.
And there you have it: #367 is proof positive that the only way this thing ends is with massive amounts of bloodshed.
Although Tard is a phenomenal (and increasingly tongue-in-cheek and self-aware) troll, I suspect this sentiment is shared by hundreds of thousands of Americans. I suspect this is not a statement with which a guy like Kudlow would take issue. After all, all spending is good spending, isn’t it?
I’ll take Bukowski over either of those writers.
“I’d rather run through hell carrying two damn buckets of gasoline”
I’m going to incorporate this into my daily lexicon.
Thank you!
#365 – I honestly would have figured you for a Blake fan…
I dug Dostoyevsky personally. The 19th Cent. Russians a bit too dense for me to work through anymore though.
#369 – I suspect this sentiment is shared by hundreds of thousands of Americans.
I would agree. I think, if you could do so, you would find many slaves interpreted their master’s success as their own.
#370 – The Buk dug the Russians.
Essex says:
March 5, 2009 at 6:51 pm
351. I think the John Stewart piece was amazing. On par with the Colbert act at the Presidential Press Party a few years back. I really think that this spells the end of CNBC. He skewered people that have been on that show for years. Made them look worse than I could imagine. I loved it. Bye Bye CNBC.
SX: I didn’t like the Daily Show piece (apologies C). Bear in mind, I hate CNBC except Fast Money. However, I think there was a tremendous amount of distortion done there. I don’t even think it was in the name of comedy…..it was in the name of manipulation….it was fraudulent…..very Fox-News-like…..kinda $hitty if you ask me, and I think Stewart is funny although I don’t watch the show…..
sx (370)-
Figures.
374…well they couldn’t run the footage of Todd Thompson and Maria on the private jet….so they had to settle for her kissing Thain’s ass.
Leo was good but I lean to Pushkin and Dostoeveski. That said, the first line of Anna Karenina is about the best first line ever.
Leo was good but I tend to lean toward Pushkin and Dostoeveski. That said the first line of Anna Karenina is among the best ever.
“Who cares? Rutgers’ students might as well be a herd of 30,000 alpacas. In fact, 30,000 alpacas would probably demonstrate more independence of thought, as they haven’t been exposed to a lifetime of hovering parents, indolent and scheming educators and bumbling apparatchiks of a crumbling, low-level soci@list bureaucracy.”
Yeah, I agree, but the problem is, 30,000 alpacas vote.
did sue actaully post to this site? when ? where?
“351. I think the John Stewart piece was amazing. On par with the Colbert act at the Presidential Press Party a few years back. I really think that this spells the end of CNBC. He skewered people that have been on that show for years. Made them look worse than I could imagine. I loved it. Bye Bye CNBC.”
While I do hate all the permabulls on CNBC, the fact of the matter is, Rick Santelli has been battling with all those morons for years and was the lone voice on the network for common sense. Now Stewart went and single handedly turned him into the bad guy in the eyes of millions of young Americans because one of his writers doesn’t know who Rick Santelli is. I talked to about 10 kids today about this. None of them know who Rick Santelli is or didn’t know him prior to last week. They all hate his guts today and consider him Hank Paulson’s and George Bush’s partner in crime. You try to reason with people that Santelli spoke out against the TARP and they don’t want to hear it because John Stewart made fun of him.
So, WWTAMD?
I don’t feel bad about what I posted. I don’t say anything online I wouldn’t say to someone in person. As a matter of fact, I tend to say little online and much more in person.
Ben it is what it is. Looks like Geithner’s #2 pulled out of consideration today. It looks like a bit of a train wreck over there already. Ambitious and somewhat misdirected goals. But hey…what the heck…the last 8 years was a debacle. I am currently stunned and going into shell mode. Where I just shrink into the blankets until say 2015.
New thread, move up.
Zack, do you show your stupidity by making broad ethnic stereotypes too? Or just generational ones?
The bottom line is until about two weeks ago Jumbo loans over $1,000,000 were anywhere from 7 3/4- 10%.
Now we can get up to $4,000,000 at 6.5% no points for 30 year. That is what had truly sunk the luxury market. There are some all cash buyer, but that is way at the top. Most buyers do some financing.
There should be some improvement as this filters in. I think Manhattan is so over done, they have to drop more.
New Jersey will stand a chance if we get a pile of capitulators to give in. I see that coming.
Richard