Little early, but I’m making the call.
The North Jersey 2009 Spring Market is a complete bust
There has been absolutely no sign of increased sales, heck there isn’t even a sign of a bottom. Sorry folks, but this downturn has much longer to go.
While we usually discuss home sales on a closed basis here (looking backwards by 2-3 months) it is often helpful to gauge home sales by looking at contract sales (signed contracts to buy). This measure is very similar (if not exactly the same) as the National Association of Realtors (NAR) pending home sales index. While contract sales are a more recent indicator than closed sales, it is a noisier measure. A percentage of contract sales don’t make it to closing, and that percentage does tend to vary. Closed sales tend to see a less significant revision, which are typically due to data entry mistakes or not logging a closed sale in a timely manner.
There are no bright spots in the February 2009 contract data. Warren did see a bit of a year over year increase in February, but at these depressed levels it is tough to know whether this is market improvement or just noise as we skid further downhill. The biggest improvement in Warren County was in Phillipsburg, where contracts went from 9 last year to 13 in 2009. This is likely due to the severe price declines seen in Phillipsburg. Median contract price was down more than 50% year over year, with average prices falling 34% over that same period. This is similar to what we saw in January, with severely depressed areas seeing the most improvement in terms of sales.
Given the deterioration over the first two months of the year, it is clear that 2009 will not be the year real estate bottoms in New Jersey. The spring market tends to set the pace for the year that follows, and if January and Febuary are any indication, we’re in for further deterioration.
Febuary North Jersey Contract Sales
Bergen
(NJMLS)
February 2007 – 762
February 2008 – 520
February 2009 – 441 (Down 15.2% YOY, Down 42.1% 2xYOY)
Essex
(GSMLS)
February 2007 – 423
February 2008 – 325
February 2009 – 248 (Down 23.7% YOY, Down 41.4% 2xYOY)
Hunterdon
(GSMLS)
February 2007 – 94
February 2008 – 102
February 2009 – 58 (Down 43.1% YOY, Down 38.3% 2xYOY)
Morris
(GSMLS)
February 2007 – 449
February 2008 – 355
February 2009 – 270 (Down 23.9% YOY, Down 39.9% 2xYOY)
Passaic
(GSMLS)
February 2007 – 263
February 2008 – 187
February 2009 – 177 (Down 5.3% YOY, Down 32.7% 2xYOY)
Somerset
(GSMLS)
February 2007 – 323
February 2008 – 252
February 2009 – 172 (Down 31.7% YOY, Down 46.7% 2xYOY)
Sussex
(GSMLS)
February 2007 – 171
February 2008 – 122
February 2009 – 118 (Down 3.3% YOY, Down 31.0% 2xYOY)
Union
(GSMLS)
February 2007 – 349
February 2008 – 261
February 2009 – 212 (Down 18.8% YOY, Down 39.3% 2xYOY)
Warren
(GSMLS)
February 2007 – 103
February 2008 – 60
February 2009 – 67 (Up 11.7% YOY, Down 35.0% 2xYOY)
Year-to-Date North Jersey Contract Sales
Bergen
(NJMLS)
2007 – 1444
2008 – 996
2009 – 804 (Down 19.3% YOY, Down 44.3% 2xYOY)
Essex
(GSMLS)
2007 – 787
2008 – 547
2009 – 474 (Down 13.3% YOY, Down 39.8% 2xYOY)
Hunterdon
(GSMLS)
2007 – 199
2008 – 196
2009 – 114 (Down 41.8% YOY, Down 42.7% 2xYOY)
Morris
(GSMLS)
2007 – 859
2008 – 636
2009 – 484 (Down 23.9% YOY, Down 43.7% 2xYOY)
Passaic
(GSMLS)
2007 – 673
2008 – 468
2009 – 361 (Down 22.9% YOY, Down 46.4% 2xYOY)
Somerset
(GSMLS)
2007 – 635
2008 – 447
2009 – 322 (Down 28.0% YOY, Down 49.3% 2xYOY)
Sussex
(GSMLS)
2007 – 305
2008 – 223
2009 – 205 (Down 8.1% YOY, Down 32.8% 2xYOY)
Union
(GSMLS)
2007 – 651
2008 – 449
2009 – 426 (Down 5.1% YOY, Down 34.6% 2xYOY)
Warren
(GSMLS)
2007 – 206
2008 – 129
2009 – 119 (Down 7.8% YOY, Down 42.2% 2xYOY)
Primero!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123630125365247061.html
Kettle – 361 – Will this work?
“Bill Seeks to let FDIC Borrow up to $500 Billion”
Frist
#2 – Prep work for Citi and BAC failures.
Look what made BusinessWeek:
Xanadu: Can This Mall Make It?
Larry Siegel says his huge mall in New Jersey’s Meadowlands will open and will dazzle shoppers. But this retail environment feels like paradise lost
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_12/b4124000642497.htm?campaign_id=yhoo
Dink – our dog goes to Brenda King on Forest St. She is great with the doggie, but Stu thinks she’s more of an animal person instead of a people person. Althoug she was really wonderful to me the day DJ drank an entire bottle of Children’s Zyrtec.
Other people swear by Dr. Cameron. The main reason we opted not to use him is he does a lot of volunteer work for PAWS and that sometimes preempt appointments. It’s not unheard of for people to wait over an hour even with an appointment.
I second Gator’s sentiments.
Qwerty: Sue Adler is evil personified.
When you do eventually sell your next home, please go out of your way to ensure your realtor lists the total time the house is listed on the market and what the original list price was. Otherwise, you will be a hypocrite.
Does this pass your litmus test?
Bank Failure Friday?
Guess so, one down and the night is still young.
#8 Bank Failure Friday?
But of course
Lousy close tag…
[285] yikes (last thread)
No sympathy from courts, not now. Beat it on facts, not sympathy.
Instead, dissect the ticket. Look for errors in time, condition, etc. That makes the officer’s account appear unreliable.
Next, challenge the existence of the violation.
Go back and take pictures to show that the u-turn wasn’t posted anywhere. Next, and most importantly, arm yourself with the statutes and local ordinances. Was there a no u turn zone designated by ordinance? Not likely so go to state and local law to see if there are blanket rules.
Another good source is the NJ driver’s test and manual–if the manual says you will be tested on a 3 point turn, then turning around in a street can’t be illegal, can it?
See if the court has a searchable database and determine if traffic court contests are on there, and what the disposition is. If there are a lot of successful appeals, note the history.
If your facts are persuasive, you may find that the cop will then argue that, for example, you drove recklessly. First, if you have witness testimony produce it. Next, determine if a cop is allowed to change the charge in court (NB, Maryland has a prohibition on this that my wife used to great effect on appeal) and if not, ask that his testimony be stricken on that basis. Next, ask the court to strike his testimony because he never issued a ticket on that charge and you have insufficient notice of the charges against you. Finally, using your recollection of the facts, and the cop’s ticket or report, query him about conditions, time of day, light, traffic (try to trip him up on facts if you can by stating something falsely and getting him to agree), where he was located (was there any obstruction?), etc. Then, after he has made some mistakes, ask him if, in his opinion, you were reckless, and if he says yes, point out that it is not in the ticket. Then point out that he made X number of mistakes, and tell the court that his testimony should be stricken or disregarded as unreliable.
As a last resort, taint the proceedings by asking the cop a lot of questions starting with “Isn’t it true” and make them very specific. Such as “Isn’t it true that last week, your chief of police instructed all watch commanders to instruct officers to write more tickets?” “Isn’t it true that you were instructed by your superiors to write tickets because, as the Mayor stated ‘the town needs the money?”
Finally, and this is dirty pool, write a letter to the chief blasting him for his attitude. Then, in court, say “Isn’t it true that you changed your story here today because I filed a complaint with the chief regarding your behavior?”
#5
Yup. The first thing I did last year when I got laid off was run out and blow my unemployment check at the mall.
/off sarcasm
I remember a time when a billion dollars was a lot of money , now the
government tosses trillions around
without much thought. Anybody know
what comes after trillions??
#14…
*New Dollars*, like the Zimbabwean dollars (inflation of 10 to 1 — 10 as in 10-digits).
It is a sad period financially, but I have trust that O will get us through this mess.
S
what comes after trillions??
Carnage
still at work, but wife just called to tell me that there was speculation on CNN that geithner will be gone by the end of the year. O and Co. are rapidly losing control of the sitch (what little they ever had)
#16 “carnage”
Good one.
at least someone is still rooting for the O team
**************
Caracas – Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Friday called upon US President Barack Obama to follow the path to soci-alism, which he termed as the “only” way out of the global recession. “Come with us, align yourself, come with us on the road to soc-ialism. This is the only path. Imagine a socia-list revolution in the United States,” Chavez told a group of workers in the southern Venezuelan state of Bolivar.
” was speculation on CNN that geithner will be gone by the end of the year.”
Impossible. Tax-cheat Geithner is part of O dream team, and the Messiah personally vouched on him: Geithner is not just qualified, he is uniquely qualified for this job, according to The Messiah. Who knows what had happened to the economy without Geithner?
His economic leadership is comparable only to leadership O has shown. Unfortunately, market and everybody with above-average IQ knows it too.
Last week was almost surreal when Geither stated they are going after international tax-cheats and Charlie Rangel agreed in background.
I’m starting to believe that O is destroying the economy on purpose.
Short sale in Basking Ridge
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Bernards-Twp_NJ_07920_1107202620
Cindy,
500 billion might so for just citi. If the government had been mart they would have just coughed up 2 billion and let the banks fail. thats probably what it would have cost to clean up the immediate mess. cheaper then the 9 trillion soent so far……
by the way, zimbabwe prints a 100 trillion dollar note. its worth about $30 US
Hey look, a picture of a house in bergen county from 2010
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_9ZzZquaXrR8/SbGET95qyrI/AAAAAAAADEE/mXnNgNfkztY/s1600-h/Fruitstand.jpg
Dow has dropped 20% in 1 month.
March 6: Dow 6500. On February 6, it was at 8280
The worst two-year periods, assuming 2009 ends at today’s prices:
1. 1930-31, down 69%
2. 1931-32, down 64%
3. 2008-09, down 50%
4. 1929-30, down 45%
5. 1973-74, down 40%
6. 1906-07, down 39%
7. 2007-08, down 30%
8. 1940-41, down 26%
9. 1916-17, down 22%
10. 1920-21, down 25%
here is where the bear rally might come from:
Lawmakers Propose Panel That Could Suspend Fair-Value
Two U.S. lawmakers want to create a regulatory panel that would be able to suspend accounting rules such as the fair-value standard that financial companies have blamed for worsening the global credit crisis. Representatives Ed Perlmutter and Frank Lucas introduced House legislation yesterday to establish the Federal Accounting Oversight Board, which would “approve and oversee accounting principles.” It would include the Treasury secretary and the chairmen of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aK1lxYsl4Vg0&refer=home
The $700 trillion elephant
There’s a $700 trillion elephant in the room and it’s time we found out how much it really weighs on the economy. Derivative contracts total about three-quarters of a quadrillion dollars in “notional” amounts, according to the Bank for International Settlements. These contracts are tallied in notional values because no one really can say how much they are worth. But valuing them correctly is exactly what we should be doing because these comprise the viral disease that has infected the financial markets and the economies of the world. Try as we might to salvage the residential real estate market, it’s at best worth $23 trillion in the U.S. We’re struggling to save the stock market, but that’s valued at less than $15 trillion. And we hope to keep the entire U.S. economy from collapsing, yet gross domestic product stands at $14.2 trillion. Compare any of these to the derivatives market and you can easily see that we are just closing the windows as a tsunami crashes to shore.
The total value of all the stock markets in the world amounts to less than $50 trillion, according to the World Federation of Exchanges. To be sure, the derivatives market is international. But much of the trouble we’re in began with contracts “derived” from the values associated with U.S. residential real estate market.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={024DB809-8506-4AA9-83BB-B053FD4E1C11}&siteid=rss
#27 kettle:here is where the bear rally might come from:
And than what??
CNBC guys have been reading this blog…
starts at 3 minutes in
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1054421325&play=1
“And than what??”
– Short the sh!t out of it. If they believe that the way to restore trust in the system is to make it more opaque, then they are bigger idiots/thieves than I thought they were.
Even Paulson knew enough not to attempt that.
3b
then what?……
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpGHDX5KIhk
3b, i think we are going back to 82, but i expect to see a significant rally this year that will wipe out a lot of people as all the pundits call bottom and people jump back in, only to promptly fall through the floor
I think Krugman put it best in his blog. (Cindy linked to it earlier).
Policymakers are assuming that restoring proper functioning in credit markets – and confidence in general – is equivalent to a housing price rebound. They seem incapable of envisioning a world in which this is not the case. This tunnel vision prevents policymakers of trying to devise policy which assumes that the many of the assets in the banking system are simply “bad.” For Bernanke and Geithner, there are no bad assets. Only misunderstood assets.
And the insistence on offering the same plan over and over again, with only cosmetic changes, is itself deeply disturbing. Does Treasury not realize that all these proposals amount to the same thing? Or does it realize that, but hope that the rest of us won’t notice? That is, are they stupid, or do they think we’re stupid?
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/03/zombie-financial-ideas/
This is the best line –
For Bernanke and Geithner, there are no bad assets. Only misunderstood assets.
3b
I will be honest, i have gambled a modest sum of money by going long. Its purely gambling, i couldnt reasonably call it investing and understand that i am likely to lose a good chunk before my stops it
China’s 2009 Rebound Is Pure Fantasy
The idea that China can grow strongly as the world unravels is a fantasy. Ditto for the view that China is going to save the global economy. China is already slowing, of course. The third-biggest economy grew 6.8 percent in the last quarter of 2008. Such growth sounds like heaven just about everywhere else. Yet for an economy at China’s level of development, one that zoomed along at a 13 percent pace in 2007, it’s hell. Premier Wen Jiabao was wrong to err on the side of caution yesterday when he delivered the Chinese equivalent of the U.S. State of the Union address. He said the country’s 8 percent growth target is within reach, indicating an additional stimulus package isn’t needed. It’s a bad call, and Wen is likely to regret it as 2009 unfolds.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=ahxBcUdeeYxE&refer=home
Lawmakers Propose Panel That Could Suspend Fair-Value
____
Unreal
Enough short material for years, and the shell game continues. I’d really like to be able to get net long, at some point in my lifetime. This sh*t is so unbelievably pathetic.
I’m thinking we’re going to need a 10x short, and soon, to correspond to my blood pressure.
We have a government of Eunuchs.
When Krugman and Roubini start to converge, you know the End of Days can’t be far off.
bye bye BOE
Record rise in gilts as Bank of England ‘starts printing presses’
Gilts saw their biggest one-day jump in memory after the Bank of England signalled it was embarking on a policy of money creation for the first time. The Bank cut interest rates by half a percentage point and committed to spending £150bn of newly created central bank money on corporate and government bonds.
The sheer scale of the operation is illustrated by the fact that the entire corporate bond and commercial paper market in the UK is worth only £57.5bn, while the amount of gilt-edged government debt eligible for the Bank’s auctions totals £250bn.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4945393/Record-rise-in-gilts-as-Bank-of-England-starts-presses.html
PS gilts are UK government debt, i.e UK treasuries
Ireland May Lose Its AAA Credit Rating, Fitch Says
Ireland may lose its AAA debt rating because of a slump in government tax revenue, Fitch Ratings said. The country’s top credit classification was put on “watch negative,” Fitch said in a statement from London today. Ireland received the top rating from Fitch in 1998. The government needs to find as much as 4.5 billion euros ($5.7 billion) through spending cuts and tax increases if it’s to prevent the budget deficit from swelling beyond 9.5 percent of gross domestic product, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said two days ago. Tax revenue plunged 24 percent in the first two months of the year, the government said March 3.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aBvX7NU1auVg&refer=europe
AIG aid went to GS others:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123638394500958141.html
Courtesy of CR.
on aig
Josh, your reporting on the AIG credit default swap/counterparties issue has been spot-on. But to understand what happened there, you have to understand the Fed’s “Maiden Lane” vehicles and how it’s used them to avoid what Congress intended with TARP, which was the real story that came out of Dodd’s hearing on the AIG mess today. And the roots of it go back to the Bear Stearns rescue last year.
By law, the Fed isn’t allowed to buy assets — it can only lend, as lender of last resort. That was a problem for the Bear Stearns bailout, because JP Morgan said it would only buy Bear if someone else assumed responsibility for the crap. Fed came up with this idea to start a shadow company, called a special purpose vehicle (SPVs were how Enron operated, creating “Chewco” and the like named after Chewbacca – the New York Fed called their SPV “Maiden Lane LLC” for name of the street the NY Fed is located on in southern Manhattan). The deal then was JP Morgan put $1 billion into Maiden Lane, the Fed put $29 billion in cash into it. Maiden Lane paid Bear Stearns $30 billion, which went straight back to JP Morgan as this deal happened simultaneously to JP’s purchase of Bear. So Morgan got $30 billion in cash ($29 billion net) and the Fed got stuck owning the crap, but was legally only making a loan to Maiden Lane, who was the legal owner (Maiden Lane was incorporated not in NYC, but in Delaware to avoid paying taxes). By the Fed’s own accounting – which is very different from a real company’s accounting – Maiden Lane has lost $5 billion between its creation and today.
The same problem happened in AIG, but this time there was no buyer. In Sept, the Fed bought AIG (80%) in exchange for an $85 bill loan. By Oct, it was clear AIG was still dying, so the Fed lent it another $40 billion. This $40 billion was restructured in November when the Treasury put in $40 billion of TARP funds, which was needed to bail out the Fed’s loan which had by this time gone bad. But essentially AIG had 2 problems: it had lent out safe securities with real values and used that money to buy shit mortgage backed securities — this was called ‘Secured Lending Facility’ which was done right under the nose of the state insurance commissioners. It was in the hole $20 billion. The other problem was the crappy insurance that AIG’s financial products company had written on other people’s shit mortgage backed securities – the credit default swaps (CDS). When the bad mortgages that AIG insured went bad, the insurance had to pay-up — but because it wasn’t called insurance, but rather derivatives, AIG hadn’t reserved any money against it. This had lost about $25 billion.
Using the loophole it had learned during Bear Stearns, the Fed set up two new companies: Maiden Lane II and Maiden Lane III. Two dealt with the secured lending and Three the shitty credit default swaps. The Fed lent each Maiden Lane $20 billion and $25 billion and then Maiden Lane paid off the investors that had either lent AIG the money to buy the shitty mortgage backed securities (ML II) and those who had the shitty mortgages and the corresponding insurance (ML III). To avoid booking a loss on the Fed’s balance sheet, because the Fed had some legal problems if either of these Maiden Lanes lost money, and because of a reporting requirement that Dodd had put into TARP which actually required the Fed to report to the Congress and the public about the cost to taxpayers from ML I, the Fed did some creative accounting. They still paid all of the investors off at full value (par), so that they didn’t lose anything. But they booked the loss on AIG’s balance sheet and kept Maiden Lane clean. This is the hidden story behind how AIG went from losing $38 billion during the first 9 months of 2008 to losing $61 billion in the 4th quarter.
This was all exposed at today’s hearing. And despite repeated requests from Senators on both sides – Dodd, Shelby, Corker, Warner – the Fed is still refusing to say who it bailed out through Maiden Lane II and III.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/03/lowdown_on_aig.php
#28 Kettle
A QUADRILLION dollars- now we are
talking!!!!
$1,000,000,000,000,000.00
Is that right??
Zimbabwe’s got nothing over us.
Kass: Kill the Quants, Punish the ProBears
The average investor is defenseless against a market dominated by quant funds and ultra bear ETFs.
https://news.fidelity.com/news/news.jhtml?cat=Opinion&articleid=200902271200STREETCMREALTIME_10466702&IMG=N
Doug Kass knows more about stock trading than I probably ever will and I can think of several reasons why you could say these levered ETF’s should be banned (too much risk for a retail investor, they don’t perform as they should…) but I wouldn’t put that they make it too easy to take advantage of hedge fund redemptions anywhere near the top of my list.
When his hedge fund buddies kick back their 2% and 20% from the past five years I’ll promise to never buy another levered Bear ETF.
it is interesting that this stuff is happening just as the depression generation is dying out. we’ll probably be chastened for another 2 generations after this and then something similar will happen again.
CyclePro: (I really dig this guy)
Today, the DJIA has come full circle to a time when what I think was a pivotal event in the markets. Today, the DJIA traded to a low of 6544.10. The last time it was this low was December, 1996. That month was when Alan Greenspan gave his famous “Irrational Exuberance” speech. And, in my opinion, was the last time he employed at least some prudence and responsibility as the role of a Federal Reserve Chairman. After that speech, Mr. Greenspan turned on all investors and started pumping the mantra of American productivity and the new internet business model. But I don’t want to waste my time talking about how he helped to engineer the mess were in since so many other people have done excellent jobs covering that. Rather, I want to point out that in December, 1996 Alan Greenspan thought the markets were grossly overvalued. This was a time when he still expressed his own opinion based upon the statistics and information available to him. Up until that point I still had a certain respect for him. (But very soon thereafter, he changed 180 degrees, and with it, my respect.) We are now back to that same DJIA level, twelve years later. Nothing has really changed… the DJIA is still overvalued. People who invested then on a buy-and-hold strategy are right back to where they started — all of the paper gains have vaporized. And with it, their hopes and dreams.
We are in a totally new environment than 1996. The banks are in shambles and they are on the verge of pulling just about every one of our large corporations down with them. The large number of notional value of derivatives held by the banks will be their downfall. The details are available from the Comptroller of the Currency in their Derivatives Fact Sheet report.
I have been writing about Derivatives Danger since 1999. After ten long years and a better understanding of what lays before us, we are now finally starting to witness what I had long predicted.
In very simple laymans terms, a swap derivative is simply a written agreement between two parties that amounts to nothing more than an elaborate bet or wager on the outcome of a certain event. An event could be the price of natural gas at Henry Hub (Louisiana) at some time in the future, or crude oil delivered at New York Harbor, or the price of coffee beans at New Orleans, palm oil in Singapore, or even pistachio nuts in London. Based upon the maturity provisions of the derivative contract, one party would pay the other cash depending upon how the price played out by an agreeded upon end date and time.
Derivatives simply moved gambling on price targets from Las Vegas to the boardroom of corporations. These bets were usually made on commodites that were directly or indirectly used or created by the company, and often used to hedge price volatility, but the bottom line is they were nothing more than gambling bets nonetheless.
Under normal times, bi-lateral netting with counterparties significantly reduced the true exposure or risk of loss from these huge trading portfolios. Essentially, once a trade was offset with an opposing one, the deals were tossed out of the balance sheet (as level or tier III asset) because they were thought to be zero-netted. We now know this was a Cinderella dream.
Bi-lateral netting is no longer support, it’s “safety net” has disintegrated because many of the banks counterparties are no longer trustworthy to fulfill their obligations and to honor the terms of the derivative contracts. It really is all about trust and confidence — right now there is zip, nada, none!
What this means, is that the $88 trillion derivatives book of JPMorgan’s, the $39 trillion of Bank of America, or the $38 trillion of Citigroup is now completely exposed to loss. JPM’s book is exposed 49:1 to their assets. This means a mere 2% loss completely wipes them out! Bank of America is 28:1 to their assets.
But it does not stop here. Certainly the majority of the problems filter down to real estate and toxic mortgaged-backed securities and all of the various manifestations of them. But other corporations will be affected too. I know as fact that just about every large trading shop in the US, plus many around the World, made derivative trades with JPM, BofA, or Citi. These were not just financial related, like currency or interest rates, some of the trades were for crude oil, corn, steel, electricity, sugar, coffee, cattle, and everything in between. Every one of these banks had exposure to companies like: GM, Cargill, Monsanto, 3M, Alcoa, even odd categories like Hersey’s or Schmuckers. Basically, if a company wanted to use derivatives to tailor certain risk parameters they could find a counterparty to do it with, and often the big banks were there to make it happen. The bank took the role as middleman, did the trade on one side, charged a service fee, then offset their risk exposure with someone else. By doing this, the bank pocketed the service fee and walked away with the assumption that the two offsetting trade positions would net themselves out with absolutely zero risk to the bank.
We now know this is no longer true.
The banks used other banks to offset some of the trades. The creditworthiness of these banks are highly questionable. Citi is on the verge of outright bankruptcy, and the other big derivative players are not too far behind. By the end of this month, I suspect the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be reconfigured to replace Citi with something else. Further, the New York Stock Exchange has the unfortunate requirement to notify Citi that they must maintain a stock price above $1 per share or risk getting kicked out of NYSE — Citi will be relinquished to the OTC pink sheets as they wallow in death thros until they are completely gone.
This is the same script for many of the other big derivative players. Now I am not talking specifically about banks. Now I am talking about all of the peripheral companies that did derivative business with these banks. When the banks default, the other companies will be left holding completely exposed positions. Even if a company holds a derivative contract that would otherwise be a big gainer for them, could thereafter be frozen and locked as a bankruptcy receivable to the bank. I recall this exact situation when it happened following formal bankruptcies at PG&E and Enron in the early 2000’s.
Now all of these other companies are forced into taking huge losses. If they are prudent and lucky, they will quickly offset their exposures with other willing counterparties. They may still take a loss, but forward exposure may be mitigated for awhile.
This past weekend I showed how the rate of bank failures is accelerating and todays commentary reveals that the big banks have survival issues of their own. Now you know the rest of the story behind the Federal Reserve’s steadfast hold on secrecy and why Sheila Bair yesterday admitted that the FDIC could be insolvent by the end of the year.
Same author writing about the upcoming problem w/ derivatives in April of…1999!!!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/swilliams040699.html
“Anybody know
what comes after trillions??”
[14],
Gold.
“still at work, but wife just called to tell me that there was speculation on CNN that geithner will be gone by the end of the year.”
skep,
Oh shet, I was wrong. I gave it 4 months. If it’s longer, he will go down in history as THE worst.
“I’m starting to believe that O is destroying the economy on purpose.”
Jamil,
Just a running back, taking the hand off from GWB.
“For Bernanke and Geithner, there are no bad assets. Only misunderstood assets.”
Vic,
ABS; A Bucket of S*it.
“Record rise in gilts as Bank of England ’starts printing presses’
Kettle,
BP, Euros, Zloty, Forint, Dollar?
How about jumping off the Lusitania to board the Titanic?
“AIG aid went to GS others:”
[42],
Is it possible that after an uptick you can arrive at zero?
ABS = American Bull Sh!t
kettle [43],
Maiden Lane? A convenient trash can for JPM to unload $138B of crap. Stupid me, I thought they were talking about JIm Brady’s.
Funny example of the left out flanking the left. Environmental groups oppose windmills off the coast of NJ. It’s funny to watch a pissing match between the NIMBY fish lovers vs the “green” morons.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/03/windmills_off_nj_coast_could_s.html
Where are those saying “green technology” will save us from economic disaster on this?
Stu [48],
JPM is the king of trash, nobody does it better,
if you caught my post last night, this is a good example.
“Google in position to capture Uncle Sam’s spending”
http://tinyurl.com/dfeq9l
SAS
[285] yikes (last thread)
I have seen it happen that an offer is made in court for a reduction to a no points violation of unsafe operation if a defendant is willing to pay a state mandated $250 surcharge plus the other costs totaling ~$400 or so and provided they plead guilty and are able to pay immediately.
When I’ve seen lawyers in such cases, they have not proffered complex defenses or attacked the police, they plead and paid. Perhaps this was because they realized that such a fight is both frivolous and foolish.
I am NOT a lawyer. You should consult one for legal advice.
speaking of Google, they contacted me the other day.
they are wanting me to help them recruit some potential employees.
ex. exploit bugs
Those guys at google, man, they are all weird bafoons, or think they are the cat’s meow.
SAS
and Google is not the fun, silly, ans sweet company they like to portray themselves.
they have a long, long list of dirt & corruption. and they really don’t give a sh*t either.
SAS
kettle1 says:
March 5, 2009 at 9:59 pm
Sean,
we would have to print about 2 trillion $ just to break even with current debt destruction. bernanke has printed 800 billion to date, doubling the money supply (M0. If they try that, the bond market collapses.
They will print and we will see inflation/hyperinflation, but not until AFTER the bond market collapses
kettle, any facts to back this up? I’ve tried to look up exact #’s on how much $ is being printed, can’t find much in the form of exact answers
“How about jumping off the Lusitania to board the Titanic”
Those disasters happened prerty quickly. This economy, with the USG throwing good money after bad to delay the pain, is more like the Moro Castle — a long and slow burn leading to a charred hulk.
“they really dont give a sh*t either.”
SAS,
No, but they can help you map it, get you directions to it, and write your description of it.
From previous thread:
chicagofinance says:
March 6, 2009 at 12:55 pm
DCH: A blueprint of how to run your life into the ground. Humans are hard wired to destroy themselves on a visceral level. Only conquering their emotions can lead (on average) to optimal outcomes.
———————————-
No, Mr. Chicago-not everyone is hardwired to self destruct. Our species would never have made it this long-instincts can be helpful.
Outcome isn’t everything :
1 Get rich quick, NOW
2 Do, buy , have, win at any cost
(those are emotions too)
The process can have more value sometimes than the outcome.
I was referring to the “herding”-sometimes the herd panics and runs and sometimes it is too afraid to move….
Kettle,
Thanks. I enjoyed the road runner link.
I may change my handle to dow4.5
Z
vic (31)-
I hope like hell they suspend mark-to-market. I’ll go back to the well for the third time, 2x and 3x short. F^*k these doofs with their own f^*king c^*ks.
HE (46)-
The levered shorts aren’t the problem. It’s the rest of the goddam rigged market.
I can’t wait to get out of these short positions and gold. Too bad the people in DC keep thinking of dumber and dumber things that make me decide to stay there.
Dow 6500 is a benchmark? Anybody see Louise Yamada today, making a Dow 4000 call?
That lady’s seen more than all of us put together. She’s the only chartist I listen to for more than three minutes. Her rationale for Dow 4000 was so simple and precise, I don’t think she took more than three breaths to deliver it.
6500 was overvalued in ’96, and it’s way overvalued today. This thing doesn’t stop until there’s nothing left but a flaming pile of wreckage.
Al – from the prior thread – that is very funny re the original text of the Bros. Karamazov. when I was struggling with Kant as an undergrad, I considered improving my german (which is meagre) enough to read him in the original. but then I found out that native German speakers often prefer to read him in English translation, because Kant’s German is so completely indigestible(!)
Qwerty – I think we have to give up and conclude re Stu that a) Sue is an old flame; or b) she is a second cousin once removed; or c) she is in possession of a really incriminating videotape. since Stu at other times aims for accuracy, yet in this matter none of his arguments cohere.
I know so many elderly people (whom I volunteer with) who are talking about seeking work, that it’s scary. I suppose that TPTB will come up with $1 per hour jobs, to keep everyone busy. after all, $1 buys a Taco Bell bean burrito! and serious loss leaders are coming back, at least at my local Safeway. live all week on the five pounds of carrots that you can buy for a dollar – yummm.
Victorian, ref 33: Of course they think we’re stupid. It’s all about perceptions and confidence and maintaining the mystical belief that gov’t is the answer to all our problems. Never let a crisis go to waste? This entire drama is about using a crisis to expand the role of gov’t and has nothing to do with fixing the system that created it. Don’t just do something, stand there.
BC Bob, after trillions are quadrillions.
From TMC:
HSBC office closings to cost 100 N.J. jobs
The 800 sub-prime consumer loan offices in the U.S. that London-based banking giant HSBC Holdings Plc plans to close include 19 in New Jersey.
HSBC’s U.S. consumer-lending unit includes the Household Finance and Beneficial brands, and state records show the company has eight active Household Finance offices in New Jersey, including one in Bergenfield. It has 11 Beneficial Mortgage offices around the state, none in Bergen County.
…
HSBC, which reported a 70 percent drop in earnings on Monday, will eliminate 6,100 jobs in the U.S. Those include about 100 jobs in the New Jersey loan offices, according to an employee who asked not to be identified.
From the NYT:
A Gloomy Outlook for Home Sales’ Big Season
The “For Sale” signs are just starting to sprout, but already experts worry that this spring home-buying season will be even grimmer than the last.
Despite tentative signs of recovery in hard-hit areas like California and Florida, the broader housing market is far from reaching bottom, economists say. Across much of the nation, prices are likely to keep falling into 2010.
So this March-to-June season, when most homes are bought and sold, will be bad, perhaps the worst since the market began to spiral down in 2006.
Across the nation, 19 million houses and apartments — nearly one out of every seven — are vacant, the highest percentage since the 1960s. But only about six million of those homes are for sale or for rent. That means millions more could still flood onto the market, depressing prices further.
For would-be sellers, the bad news keeps coming. This week, one new report showed that one in nine mortgages was delinquent or in foreclosure, while another showed that January contract signings for sales of previously owned homes fell at their fastest pace in two years.
…
But as the recession deepens, the downturn in housing, where the economic crisis began, is starting to play out in new, unexpected ways. Cities where home values held up last year are suffering now, while some suburban areas where prices plunged are slowly starting to improve.
…
Still, home sales fell nationally in January, reflecting a sharp drop in the Northeast, which, with parts of the Northwest and South, has lagged the real estate downturn in the Southwest.
In Manhattan, for instance, sales of condominiums and co-operative apartments fell 52 percent in January, according to Miller Samuel, an appraisal firm.
The market has been hammered by layoffs on Wall Street, tighter lending standards and a glut of new buildings, said Jonathan J. Miller, chief executive of the firm.
“The leverage is being squeezed out of the economy.”
New York is not alone. Real estate sales have also slumped in cities like San Francisco and Seattle, which previously seemed impervious. California’s recent experience might offer one roadmap of how the housing slump will play out in other places. But the process will be painful and slow.
So April, when buying traditionally picks up, could be the cruelest month yet for the housing market.
“You are really looking at a very, very ugly outlook,” said Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a housing research firm.
…
Troubled housing markets do not rebound quickly. The first thing to turn up are sales of homes as banks and individuals acknowledge that prices are no longer what they were; some of that is already happening in California and Florida.
Home prices tend to lag sales by a couple of years. That is what happened in Massachusetts and California in the early 1990s.
How long will the current slump last?
A futures market for home prices provides one sobering forecast. Trading in contracts that track home prices in 25 metropolitan areas suggests that home prices will fall about 15 percent this year and hit bottom in 2010, according to Radar Logic, a firm that created the index on which the trading is based. The market is also predicting that the Los Angeles area is closer to the bottom than New York.
Grim –
Any numbers for Middlesex County similar to the contract sales above? I know its not “North NJ”, but comes in handy for us more south (read: broke) folks.
From the NYT:
Looking for Bottom in N.Y. Real Estate
WITH sales prices of Manhattan apartments having tumbled by perhaps a quarter in just the past few months, pinpointing the bottom has become a top priority for anyone eager to buy, sell or broker a deal on a home in New York.
Some industry observers foresee market drops of 40 percent, while others think that is too extreme and suggest that price reductions of 25 percent will more be likely the new norm.
There’s no question, though, that the boom-or-bust experience has arrived in Manhattan, which had seemed to be avoiding the fate of Las Vegas and Florida.
“It’s almost surreal,” said Dottie Herman, the president of Prudential Douglas Elliman, referring to the abrupt turnabout after the collapse of Lehman Brothers last fall. Until then, prices had been marching upward, with the median price of an apartment more than tripling in a decade.
To some degree, the rise in prices was logical in New York, where a string of outsized Wall Street bonuses lined the pockets of many buyers. That wasn’t the case in other parts of the country, which suffered from speculation and a large number of subprime mortgages.
No one has any hard numbers yet on New York because first-quarter reports, reflecting closing prices of deals struck last fall, will not be available for a few weeks.
Looking ahead, however, some believe it is possible that the average slide from peak values could reach 40 percent by the end of 2010, with variation by neighborhood and market segment. That would put values back to levels last seen around 2002.
I’m wondering if the westerly migration towards Penn. and furthest areas in NJ will slow or reverse.
GSMLS isn’t the primary MLS system for Middlesex, so I don’t have access to the best set of numbers.
Middlesex
(GSMLS)
Febuary 2007 – 98
Febuary 2008 – 100
Febuary 2009 – 75 (Down 25% YOY, Down 23.5% 2xYOY)
I’m wondering if the westerly migration towards Penn. and furthest areas in NJ will slow or reverse.
It did during the last downturn.
Do you remember the pitches used to sell rt 80 area real estate back in the late 80s?
The train is coming! 1 hour to NYC! The Poconos are PRIME!
Awesome!
Presidential Directive opens door for release of antigravity technology
Estate sale!
U.S. eyes arms sales to Libya
U.S. eyes arms sales to Libya
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5256H720090306
…
there’s gotta be a better counter top option, no?
Green counters and tabletops of resin and paper
zinc seems popular lately, but meh…
#82 – grim… the train is coming? 1 hour to NYC?
pfff, if you lived here you’d be home by now!
well considering $4 gal. gas is still in the memory banks and rt 80 sucks and prices should start dropping closer to the city I would think the migration would stop or reverse.
but considering property taxes will spiral out of control worse then they already are and high paying wall st. jobs will be less and paying less will people stay in North Jersey?
Why not play the geographic arbitrage game while there is still time?
Sell your Jersey house, move to a state that has been hit much harder, bank your profit and lower your cost of living.
For a retiree that has taken massive hit, which is more palatable?
Liquidate your portfolio at 50% off, or sell your house at 25% off.
For those sitting on a big pile of equity, this short-term drop in prices is just a blip on the radar. For those who still planned on leaving NJ in retirement, there is still opportunity to leverage these geographic differences to your advantage.
What compelling reason is there for these folks to stay in Jersey?
As for the young, the educated, and the beautiful.
Come to NYC? For what? What jobs? Why hire a kid fresh out of school (I don’t care what school) when you can get a 10 year veteran for the same price?
85 What compelling reason is there for these folks to stay in Jersey?
usually family and comfortable surroundings
usually family and comfortable surroundings
I’m comforted by the sodium vapor lit haze that envelops us all at night.
Come to NJ! We have it all!
Through caverns measureless to man
Down to a sunless sea.
88 “I’m comforted by the sodium vapor lit haze that envelops us at night”.
how poetic
I admit, family and friends keep me here as well.
#85…high fiiveee…..
I like to keep a buffer w/ family 50 mile minimum but 3 states would be nice
#91 grim
I admit, family and friends keep me here as well.
Does that make them assets or liabilities? :P
I’m in the same boat and often wonder that.
#93 crossroads,
My wife has all of Noth America and the Pacific Ocean as a buffer zone.
Allowable Modification Rates – GNMA Coupon Rate – Updated 3/4/2009
http://www.homeloans.va.gov/docs/gnma_rate.xls
… on a side note, any of this kinda talk gets Stevie Wonder stuck in my head…
Stevie Wonder – We Can Work It Out
i’m so not complaining!
#83 & #97 are awaiting your mom
I stayed here for family although I moved 90 miles away. My wife and I moved from Monmouth county to a more affordable part of the state and we were shunned by her family. But now I think they’ll be moving out of state for affordability reasons
96
wow impressive sounds like heaven
liabilities? now you sound like Chifi’s we’re all robots speech the other day.
“As for the young, the educated, and the beautiful.”
Thanks Grim for that brief dose of Pretorious in the morningh.
can anyone point me to a good article on homeowner bailout?
i heard somewhere that a solution to the mess in FL and CA would be to convert homeowners into renters
brian,
There is no solution except to let home values hit bottom on their own. The more we delay it by wasting our childrens’ future the worst off it will be.
i agree stu… but here’s a thought –
for the next five years, florida is going to be a train wreck. there will be now bottom, no credit, no one to buy houses. prices will go well below actual value.
i think the challenge is to keep SOME families in their homes to avoid social chaos.
solution? Don’t reward those speculators with bailouts!!! Convert underwater homes to rental units. sign 5 year leases with current occupants. banks forced to rent to owners at 1/3 there annual salary. government sets up rental management companies.
“Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez tightens state control of food amid rocketing inflation and food shortages”
http://tinyurl.com/br3c3a
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/wont-last.html
Grim – A must see…from CR
“You get to pick your own appliances, your own counter tops, your own flooring.”
“I like the fence with the green accents – Isn’t that nice?”
Must see – won’t last…
grim says:
March 7, 2009 at 8:13 am
What compelling reason is there for these folks to stay in Jersey?
Access to unkempt chest hair….
#105
“government sets up rental management companies.”
I’m beginning to think Chavez has a following here and O may take him up on his offer.
#108 chifi
rabid DM fan base?
NJerseyans enjoy pain, stress, and traffic?
“NJerseyans enjoy pain, stress, and traffic?”
and gold chains
SAS
“Retirement plans of millions of Britons at risk after Bank of England ‘prints money’
The retirement plans of millions of Britons have been put at risk after the Bank of England’s controversial plan to create money tore an unprecedented hole in pension schemes”
http://tinyurl.com/da9jql
This is all that stands between Communist China and our west coast.
http://www.frostfox.com/blog/?s=recruit&x=0&y=0
This is a real Taiwanese recruiting poster. Maybe the Chinese are laughing too hard to invade.
#111
SAS
and BIG HAIR
Hobo St. Patty’s day. Whoohoo. Watch as the police issue hundreds of tickets for drinking violations, $1000 a pop.
Little joey and jane 3 series from Ridgewood are in for a rude awakening. 1000 bucks for a few beers. The over/ under is 400 tickets.
Whoohoo!!!!!what revenue shortfall???
“police issue hundreds of tickets for drinking violations”
yeah man, thats all most police departments are here. To generate money, or enforce a silly drug law to fill a private (wall st. owned) prison.
cops, you gotta evaluate the system you work under, cause they are taken your pension funds too.
calling 911 is a joke.
SAS
I am surprised that no-one has jumped in and stated the obvious about the sales reports or the NYTimes article about the prediction for a down spring market. Sure, sales are down the last few months but the fed is continuously changing its tune about housing. The effect is that conscious consumers (both sellers and buyers) are waiting out for more carrots from the fed. Buyers now get 8000 free and clear, that was a loan only a few months ago. Why wouldn’t you wait? Plus the housing supply for the spring is a major unknown further acerbated by the fed foreclosure relief bill. The implications of which are only just starting to be disseminated.
sas,
You sound like flavor flav
safeashouses, I noticed that too.
So get up get, get get down
911 is a joke in yo town
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090306/ap_en_mu/rock_hall_springsteen/print
BC Bob
“The Hall of Fame announced plans to open the exhibit “From Asbury Park to the Promised Land: The life and Music of Bruce Springsteen” on April 1, three days before the hall holds its induction ceremonies in Cleveland. Featuring various memorabilia from Springsteen, the exhibit is expected to run through the spring of 2010.”
No Chicago, there wasn’t anything in the article about Depeche Mode.
##17 gerry: No. We are just waiting for house prices to fall back to where they should be.
They can keep their carrots.
grim: mls 2843717 which you were kind enough to inform me expired the other day, is now back on the market, with the same realtor at the same price.
Bank owned for months now you would at least think they would lower the price.
“Buyers now get 8000 free and clear, that was a loan only a few months ago.”
Is it only for families with AGI less than 150k? With relatively newer (< 10yr) houses [3 to 4 BR] in some of the better school districts with asks of 400 to 500k, the people looking for such houses may not qualify (income limit), and it may be a negligible difference (8k out of 400k is 2% — almost noise).
S
110 safe
rabid DM fan base?
Nah, better off in Cali for that.
““Buyers now get 8000 free and clear, that was a loan only a few months ago.”
This is income dependent so many will not qualify.
“The tax credit amount is reduced for buyers with a modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) of more than $75,000 for single taxpayers and $150,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return. The tax credit amount is reduced to zero for taxpayers with MAGI of more than $95,000 (single) or $170,000 (married) and is reduced proportionally for taxpayers with MAGIs between these amounts.”
lost (124)-
Where are the Oingo Boingo fans? When I lived in SoCal, it seemed like everybody was either big into DM (meaning they wanted to die) or OB (meaning they wanted to live). I guess I chose life.
Plus, the OB “Dia de los Muertos” shows every year were unbelievable.
Dow 6500 is a benchmark? Anybody see Louise Yamada today, making a Dow 4000 call?
__________
Clot (72),
Bloomberg has a great 25-minute audio interview (podcast/dl) with Louise:
http://bloomberg.com/tvradio/podcast/ontheeconomy.html
Also some good clips on her website.
And her words lately have just been chilling….
“Larry Siegel says his huge mall in New Jersey’s Meadowlands will open and will dazzle shoppers”
I am “dazzled” by the economic stabilization coming out of DC, and the awful behavior onthe part of bankers, but I can’t say I am all that impressed with it. Word’s like “dazzled” lace precision and allow one to intrepret what was said in accordance with one’s preconceived notions.
“Larry Siegel says his huge mall in New Jersey’s Meadowlands will open and will dazzle shoppers”
Larry, your smokin the wacky tabacky.
people’s job are dropping left & right, they have no money.
Your a day late and a dollar short.
SAS
“Some industry observers foresee market drops of 40 percent, while others think that is too extreme and suggest that price reductions of 25 percent will more be likely the new norm.”
Let us consider a home that sold in 2003 for $200,000, and then had a 100% increase to $600,000 by 2007. ALl it now takes is a 50% decline to get us back to where we were in 2003. So, those folks who talk about prices increasing X% over some period and then pooh-poohing similar (or even smaller decreases) fail to take into account that a smaller percentage decrease of a higher price may result in a greater change in prices than a larger percentage increase of a lower base price.
“What compelling reason is there for these folks to stay in Jersey”
Proximity to NY, of course.
“What compelling reason is there for these folks to stay in Jersey”
lazy and stupid.
me, I’m the latter.
SAS
#131 Shore guy
Gluttons for punishment.
Was on Basking Ridge this morning. Still duller then a butter knife.
#134
In , not on, not a John story.
No vegetables were harmed.
Clot,
Do you have any relatives in Arkansas?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/07/us/07brfs-WEAPONSCACHE_BRF.html?ref=us
Who knew one could legally register grenade launchers?
http://arkansasnews.com/2009/03/06/investigators-find-98-grenades-near-doctor%E2%80%99s-home-affidavit-says/
Went down to Moorestown to visit my brother today. Half the stores in Mount Laurel were empty as well as the majority of office and warehouse space.
Stu,
This is GREAT news! It means tht the plazas are poised to take advantage of new growth opportunities in the “new economy.” The old stores will not stand in the way of explosive growth. People better sign leases NOW or be shut out forever.
I am very hesitant to buy an expensive property right now, but have been holding out for awhile now and in the one small town where I need to buy due to the kids’ schools situation, there is an expensive one that is getting to seem pretty cheap for what it is. The town had re-assessed just a few months ago, with the new tax assessment based on late summer 2008 comps, being about $1,150,000. In verbal negotiations at this point it seems that the seller, who has had the property on the market for years (having started asking way too high of a price), is ready to “dump” it probably at around $890,000 or so. My question: If anyone knows: if the town just reassessed (new assessment kicking in as of 2009) at $1,150,00 and I buy this at $890,000, after it has been on the market for years and so (my argument) obviously the $890,000 is the market value, would it be pretty automatic for the town to just reduce the tax assessment to the $890,000 purchase price even though they just re-assessed it a few months ago as $1,150,000? (and before they re-assessed it, the old assessment was around $1,600,000, so their new re-assessment has already lowered it a lot). If and only if I can feel confident of getting the tax assessment down to my purchase price (or not much above it), I feel tempted to pull the trigger on this one. Anyone have experience with this sort of situation?
Kodiak 140 – You will likely need to file a tax appeal. The town will not autmatically reduce the assessment. Good luck.
kodiak says:
March 7, 2009 at 2:50 pm
K and everyone else: Look, I’m not in the business of being a d!ck. However, relative to assessments, let me refer to logic.
Where does it say that assessment = market value? The calculus in my warped brain says….there is a total revenue collection, and everyone is the tax base must pay their proportionate share of tax relative to the value of all taxed property. As such, just because you have proof that your property is 20%+ less than the assessment, doesn’t imply that your taxes should be cut any more than anyone else in the town.
I would say the most reasonable argument that taxes should go down is that there is an across the board 20%+ drop in real estate values, the town should drop the assessment of the entire town, or at least “like” property, and then cut the budget of the town accordingly.
While I understand there is an appeals process, and people can successfully argue down their assessment. Ultimately, the argument is not that the assessment no longer relfects market, but rather, your assessment is out of line with your neighbors.
Went for a walk in the ‘hood on this fine day and a couple in a convertible pulls over next to me and says – “We’re house hunting, can you help us find some addresses?” to which I replied “Don’t buy a house now.” They said, “We have to.” I said, “Bid 50% off or more.” They were silent, then showed me a paper with the addresses they were looking for and I sent them on their way.
Have we hit rock bottom when the person on the street says
“Don’t buy right now” or were they just lucky to meet me?
And who “has to” buy a house?
http://www.thecartelmovie.com/
Live blogging from Hoboken St. Patty’s day….
1:51 Hoboken411: 526 Washington street – TV THROWN OUT OF WINDOW
Perry of H411 is monitoring the police scanner…they are handing out $1,000 open container tickets….
2:00 [Comment From 3rd Street]
how come someone didn’t throw fecal matter on Corslime?
2:06 Hoboken411: cops now say “no tv thrown out, but rather ‘debris’ and a city ordinance was issued at that 526 washington st job
2:39 Illperson: this is a parade of the Drunk aging frat boy. GROWUP
3:30 [Comment From mike]
as a native from Ireland this celebration of our heritage brings tears to my eyes, literally, tears to my eyes
3:50 [Comment From Guest]
I dread walking outside in this. It’s like being completely sober in the world’s cheesiest bar.
3:51 [Comment From Guest]
Best twitter comment so far: “Did not realize what I was doing when I agreed to Hoboken today. It’s like jersey gras”
if this is true…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090305/pl_afp/financeeconomyusbankinggovernment
should i move my money from BAC? need help! please!
all my downpayment for a new home (first time homebuyer) is at BAC…my gut is that BAC will be insolvent pretty soon (after Citi) but if the FDIC goes belly up then i have no where to get my money back from!!!
“K and everyone else: Look, I’m not in the business of being a d!ck.”
Can one get paid for that? Maybe THAT explains the number of such people I run into on a weekly basis — “Sorry Sir. Just doing my job.”
“if the FDIC goes belly up then i have no where to get my money back from!!!”
If the FDIC goes belly up, it will not matter.
CAIBC,
For what it is worth, we have spread our funds amongst a number of banks of all different sizes.
http://www.jossip.com/the-semitic-mad-men-20090306/
CAIBC – 152 – check post #2 – They are working on that …..
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123630125365247061.html
CAIBC: Do you, seriously, expect to be buying a home if the FDIC goes bust? FDIC is probably the last part of the financial system to go under as it will be kept operational no matter how much $$$ has to be printed – rest assured that if it still happens, even if you have a 20% downpayment (a) no one will loan you money (b) what money? (c) insert your own.
Chifi – Not everyone who appeals is ‘being a dick’. We’d be a lot less aggressive about defending our assessment if we felt the whole town was assessed at a similar ratio. We got a raw deal even back in 2006. And as the market declines, all properties in town are not declining equally. We’re currently assessed a good 60k – 80k above what we can likely get for our home. There are plenty of properties that continue to sell for at or above their 2006 assessment. If we had a fair deal, you would expect the average ratio for Montclair to be at least 110% for this tax year. It’s not – it’s actually at 99.24. Being more than 10% overassessed in a high tax town like Montclair translates to paying an additional $1500 – $2000 in taxes every year – and that is on a home assessed below the town median. Everyone should pay their fair share of the tax burden. No more and no less.
cindy…’FDIC to temporarily borrow money’????!?!?
i dont feel assured at all now…
i figured that if the FDIC went belly up, then that just meant that the banks that go under wont have FDIC insurance…the rest of the banks should be still working right?
cobbler, i dont think the FDIC being insolvent will adversely affect my ability to get a loan for a home…that would come from Fannie (for what thats worth)
i see this all shaking out with banks that leveraged the most being shut down and rest ‘more conservative’ banks being left for us to bank with….the FDIC will probably run out of money insurance the deposits of these failed banks…people will still buy homes, POS homes wont be listed for 500K anymore, not 400K, not even 300K – at 200K or below per home, i probably dont even need a loan from anyone.
thats my prediction – for what its worth…
If the govt has to make a hard choice (which I don’t believe it will – they will just print $$) between Fannie or FDIC to let go bust, FDIC will be the survivor. If it gets there, btw, the price of the house will not be 200K – it will be in the millions…
CAIBC – Relax. As long as you are under the FDIC limit, you’ll be fine. There is no way Congress will let the FDIC tank – there’d be rioting in the streets. I do think a few things are safe – FDIC insured accounts,US savings bonds, the military payroll and the Congressional payroll. Everything else is pretty much a crapshoot.
outofstater, good to hear about your list of things that are safe….3 out of the 4 you listed (i am not on the congressional payroll) directly affect my family’s life!
my only concern was the bank i currently use for my transactions and savings…
trying to position myself the best i can for what this country is about to go through…
if FDIC is going bust, wouldn’t it be wiser to park money on a house?
and if dow inflation adjusted in 1966 isn’t RE undervalued?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/inflation-adjusted-dow-is-at-1966-levels/
“at least someone is still rooting for the O team”
0bama is following Chavez already, he will be paying your mortgage starting this month. We are turning in to a Communist country, minus the oil.
“if the FDIC goes belly up then i have no where to get my money back from!”
I don’t think FDIC will go bust. They will run the printing presses till the cows come home to give the sheep the illusion things are good.
However, if your bank goes belly and you got jack in the account. It could take some time before you get your money. And if any type of litigation is involved, it could be an awfully long time before you get it.
Personally, I don’t trust FDIC, and it really means nothing to me. but, thats just me.
Not a fan of cash right now, but thats a different story.
SAS
Corzine
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/around_town/the_scene/_1K_Fines_for_Drunks_at_St__Patty_s_Day_Parade_New_York.html
Way off topic
Does anyone know of a reliable pet boarding facility in the Montclair Verona area?
I have two older cats and must be away for an extended period later in the month.
Thanks
1k fines for drunks:
see what did I tell you.
These cops are here just to raise revenue. Its one thing if some dumb bloke gets disorderly, its another thing to pound a few down and be loud and silly.
and you cops will jump at the chance to write a tkt.
Corzine is stealing your pension fund.
SAS
off to make my blackened catfish…
SAS
Shore (136)-
My dad’s side of the family hails from Marianna, Arkansas.
Shore (137)-
Me. But registering mine would take the fun out of it.
We are dealing with a type of liberal we’ve never seen; a group that is power hungry and that has no limits what they will stoop to in an effort to discredit their opponents. “That One” and his cohorts play dirty and underhanded.
Do you really think it’s purely coincidental that Jon Stewart pulls his little stunt after “That One” was skewered all week by Cramer and most of the rest of the good team at CNBC? Also, how is it that an extensive article pops up this week about Cramer not being all that accurate on his advice? How is it that Rush Limbaugh is positioned to go after David Frum and that someone is stirring the damn pot to sew dissension in our ranks? This crap has “That One’s” hands all over it. The only person they didn’t go after on CNBC with that Jon Stewart stunt was Larry Kudlow.
We are dealing with a liberal element that we’ve not seen before. They’re power hungry and very dangerous, but try to hide this with a damn smile, one the one hand, while doing whatever they can to undermine conservatives on the other. Also, this damn stimulus has the purpose of buying the damn vote and forcing conservatives to choose between their principles and their actual needs. Our principles say that big government is dead wrong while our needs say take advantage of the damn stimulus. Hell, he’s even got us calling that damn bill stimulus
That One is really trying to stick it to us by putting us in a compromising position.
“Marianna, Arkansas”
I’ve done a little “truckin” along I-40.
SAS
“U.S. Taxpayers Risk $9.7 Trillion on Bailout Programs”
http://tinyurl.com/dmo27g
“Ohio school gets 700 applicants for janitorial job”
http://tinyurl.com/cs7r7y
Partial ist of companies involved in AIG:
Société Générale (France)
Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500)
Merrill Lynch International
Deutsche Bank (Germany)
Calyon, Crédit Agricole (France)
UBS (Switzerland)
Barclays (England)
Coral Purchasing, DZ Bank (Germany)
Bank of Montreal (Canada)
Rabobank (the Netherlands)
Royal Bank of Scotland
Bank of America
Wachovia
HSBC (England)
Barclays Global Investors
What is the significance of the rank order of the list? Since it is not alphabetical, one possible interpretation is that the banks are listed in order of the amount of CDOs they insured with AIG.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/07/news/companies/aig.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009030713
The Wall Street Journal list:
* Goldman Sachs
* Deutsche Bank
* Merrill Lynch
* Société Générale
* Calyon
* Barclays
* Rabobank
* Danske
* HSBC
* Royal Bank of Scotland
* Banco Santander
* Morgan Stanley
* Wachovia
* Bank of America
* Lloyds Banking Group
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123638394500958141.html
Nice Newsweek article on the topic of the other day:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/187933
“A War on the Rich?”
“The bogus GOP claim that Obama is bleeding the wealthy.”
“…This return to 2001’s tax rates was actually part of the Bush tax plan. The Republicans who controlled the White House and the Republicans who controlled the Congress earlier this decade decreed that all the tax cuts they passed would sunset in 2010. They put in this sunset provision to hide the long-term fiscal costs of the cuts. The Bush team and congressional supporters had seven years to manage fiscal affairs in such a way that they would be able to extend the tax cuts in 2010. But they screwed it up.
….Finally, there has been a near total absence of discussion of what higher rates will mean in the real world. Say you’re a CNBC anchor, or a Washington Post columnist with a seat at the Council on Foreign Relations, or a dentist, and you managed to cobble together $350,000 a year in income. You’re doing quite well. If you subtract deductions for state and property taxes, mortgage interest and charitable deductions, and other deductions, the amount on which tax rates are calculated might total $300,000. What would happen if the marginal rate on the portion of your income above $250,000 were to rise from 33 percent to 36 percent? Under the old regime, you’d pay $16,500 in federal taxes on that amount. Under the new one, you’d pay $18,000. The difference is $1,500 per year, or $4.10 per day. Obviously, the numbers rise as you make more. But is $4.10 a day bleeding the rich, a war on the wealthy, a killer of innovation and enterprise? That dentist eager to slash her income from $320,000 to $250,000 would avoid the pain of paying an extra $2,100 in federal taxes. But she’d also deprive herself of an additional $70,000 in income!
Can she, or we, really be that stupid?”
Thanks Lisoosh! Keep ’em coming.
Federal Income Tax rates hit 92% in this country and no one left! Now the so-called rich are screaming like children over $4 a day.
lisoosh… be prepared for some direct and personal attacks from tax crybabies.
Anyone supports the idea that US should declare some sanctions on Switzerland? They made fortunes off others’ miseries for so long (WWI and more in WWII). Now, they shield money of tax evaders and corrupt regimes (there used to be rumors that many Indian politicians had money in swiss numbered accounts). A little cleanup of the eternal “netural” country.
S
reinvestor101 says:
“We are dealing with a type of liberal we’ve never seen; a group that is power hungry and that has no limits…”
—
Oh, boy! The group that outed a CIA agent, sent over 3k troops to their deaths based on a lie, and looted the country through no-bid contracts to their ex companies, argued that tax cuts are needed all the time, spied on citizens, promoted torture, and *EXPANDED* the government way too much during the process.
Why do so many “conservatives” pretend to have no soul? Is it possible for someone to be so much in denial?
S
“When Markets Collide” – video – 45 minutes with Q&A – Mohamed El-Erian – Pimco
“We are on a very bumpy journey to a new destination.”
http://www.simoleonsense.com/mohamed-el-erian-when-markets-collide/
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/c130f64d6f/the-new-f-ing-citibank
And this video comes to you from The Big Picture…
“Mohamed El-Erian – Mohamed El-Erian is a co-CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO. He re-joined PIMCO in 2008 after serving for two years as president and CEO of Harvard Management Company, the entity that manages Harvard’s endowment and related accounts”
I take anything coming out of Harvard with a grain of salt. The knowing illegal money and tax havens backdoored via endowments is off the charts.
Look into it.
SAS
“Mohamed El-Erian”
He talks about things on the surface, but he doesn’t take it to the heart of the matter.
You’d learn more from my daily posts.
:P
SAS
Sas – I know he’s a Pimco dude. He comes off as a spokesman for China for heaven’s sake. But it was interesting and he had some helpful information.
” But it was interesting and he had some helpful information”
I would agree. He says some interesting things. What is more surprize to me is not what he says, but its the a person of this type was a little more on the level than the usual Jack.
SAS
One thing that these blokes never want to talk about is fraud & missing money.
Because that really is the heart of the matter. Not some dumb sap who bought a house he could never afford (although that dumb never helps things).
SAS
(188) Sas – “What is a surprise to me is not what he says, but it’s that a person of this type was a little more on the level than the usual Jack.”
Thank you Sas – I would not have posted it here if I didn’t think so as well.
He pretty much laid it out there.
I am a bit more optimistic than he is regarding American ingenuity.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Sas – 189 – Is that “The Bezzle?”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/07/AR2009030702257.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/07/AR2009030702257.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/07/AR2009030702257.html
The Next Hit: Quick Defaults
More FHA-Backed Mortgages Go Bad Without a Single Payment
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, March 8, 2009; Page A01
The last time the housing market was this bad, Congress set up the Federal Housing Administration to insure Depression-era mortgages that lenders wouldn’t otherwise make.
snip
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/07/AR2009030702257.html
179#, $4 a day more is not a big deal after you already paid $16K a year. but this whole concept of taking money from rich is poor has been proven wrong in many countries. why do we need to follow that path?
“The Bezzle”
yes.
but the govt/banker marriage is The Bezzle.
and The Bezzle controls almost all financial transactions (my diversification post), media, and is doing a major shift towards consolidation. (my 6 ways to consolidate post).
SAS
since this board got so excited again. i know it is time to pull the trigger to shoot something.
repost:
almost all corporations or municipalities depend on govt contracts, purchases, & finances. which in turn depends on the Federal budget.
The Federal budget depends on borrowed money (& taxes and printing machine) to finance all its activity.
Financial activity depends on a very centralized source. A source that is fragile.
Hence, it pays to have big bombs.
Finance us or this will fall on you.
yes, you can fill in some of the gaps.
but, thats it in a nutshell.
SAS
a couple of doomers on this board claimed they bought C on its way down. I am wondering if they still hold that crap.
for full disclosure, i don’t directly own any single bank stocks but own idex etfs which got hammered recently.
Future opportunity, decentralize cash flows. i.e break any of the steps below.
six ways to centralise local capital:
1) consolidate all retail sales into a few large corporations, including franchise operations, cutting out local small business.
2) outsource (”privatize”) all local government functions to a few large corporations or subject them to such an overwhelming amount of federal regulation that they can be controlled and managed for the benefit of a few large corporations and their investors.
3) buy up all the land and real estate, or encumber them with mortgages in a way that is as profitable as possible and allows you to get control when you want it.
4) finance the entire process with the profits from narcotics and organised crime that you market into the neighbourhood. This enables you to finance your expansion in a manner that lowers your cost of capital in a way that lowers the initial price of your investment and/or weakens your competition.
ex. I buy your business and land with your money at a fraction of the cost. No one sells her home faster and cheaper than a mother trying to make bail or pay a lawyer to save her family from jail or death. That is why narcotics trafficking is the ultimate form of neighbourhood leveraged buyout.
5) leverage all of this with tax shelters, private tax-exempt bonds, municipal bonds, government guarantees, and government subsidies — all protected with complex securities arrangements.
6) ensure that the only companies and mutual funds allowed meaningful access to capital are those run by syndicate-approved management teams. To raise significant campaign funds candidates for political office appoint syndicate-approved management teams. Investment syndicates define the boundaries of managed competition that cycle all capital back through their pipelines. That means the only local blokes who can make good are those who play ball with the syndicate.
In this way the private equity in a community can be extracted at a near infinite rate of return to investors and a highly negative rate of return to taxpayers.
SAS
Instead of being on this blog, I should just write a damn book.
It would sell like hotcakes.
SAS
re: tax. we should eliminate income tax and establish national consumption tax. by doing that, everyone will pay tax so that everyone will have responsibilities for this country. right now, about half of the population don’t pay income tax at all. they are the base of current and future bad fisical policies. if this situation was not change, it would drag this country into much worse.
“Employees of investment firm Stanford laid off”
http://tinyurl.com/bmx9tb
-1,000 people working around the nation for the troubled Stanford Financial Group were laid off Friday
“But is $4.10 a day bleeding the rich, a war on the wealthy, a killer of innovation and enterprise? That dentist eager to slash her income from $320,000 to $250,000 would avoid the pain of paying an extra $2,100 in federal taxes. But she’d also deprive herself of an additional $70,000 in income!”
FYI- It’s Obama and his sycophants who keeps telling us we can have the greatest welfare state in the world (as if this is a worthy goal) by simply raising taxes on the “rich” and giving free handouts to everyone else. As this piece proves, raising these taxes will have almost no effect in closing the out of control budget deficit, or provide the foundation for an increased expansion and maintenance of the welfare state so cherished by the American left. The point I guess is some absurd, undefined, misguided sense of “fairness”. It’s class warfare 101, and empty political rhetoric that will do nothing to make this country more financially sound, or improve “fairness” – whatever the hell that means.
“State’s shrinking pension fund making riskier bets”
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20090306/FREE/903069975
bi says:
179#, $4 a day more is not a big deal after you already paid $16K a year. but this whole concept of taking money from rich is poor has been proven wrong in many countries. why do we need to follow that path?
———–
Bi, I think we need to compare the tax rates with a “baseline”. Clearly, zero is not it, and neither is 100%. Now, if moving from 36% to 39%, and the claim is that we are “stealing from the rich”, then what was the argument when it went from 39% to 36%. For that matter, what would have been an argument when it went from the high 70% points to current levels?
Or, am I mistaken, and do some people actually believe something like 0% income taxes is a good idea?
S
“But is $4.10 a day bleeding the rich, a war on the wealthy, a killer of innovation and enterprise? That dentist eager to slash her income from $320,000 to $250,000 would avoid the pain of paying an extra $2,100 in federal taxes. But she’d also deprive herself of an additional $70,000 in income!”
—–
More likely she’ll do what many small business owners (like a few of my family members) do:
let the hygienist or office manager go and do the cleanings and/or paperwork herself. One less salary plus benefits.
This was told to me (and was done!) by a small family practitioner I know and a family member who shed a bunch of employees (mostly sales) and one office manager to keep his business on life support for the time being.
sl
had dinner with a teacher in NJ. said that usually, the school has to BEG teachers to work in the summer. they usually need 10 teachers per summer at this school.
this year – OVER 100 teachers applied for 10 positions.
If the said dentist has enough time on her hands to do cleanings and paperwork herself, and doesn’t mind doing them, she would be absolutely better off getting rid of the hygienist and office manager no matter what the tax rates are. Otherwise, doing low margin and tiresome cleanings herself instead of the high margin work, and messing up her insurance files, both just to spite the Democrats, is plain ridiculous.
JBJB
You and Jamil work in shifts?
This article is a bunch of bullspit. What is fails to mention is that on top of the damn tax increase, “That One” has a budget proposal that takes the damn tax money and re-distributes the wealth. He wants to raise my damn taxes and then skew the government spending such that I can’t get a benefit. It’s a damn double whammy and I don’t like it one bit.
Let me tell you something, I’d rather run through hell in gasoline underdrawers, than to be quiet around this theft of my wealth. What? You want to know why my interests are aligned with the wealthy when I’m not making $250,000? Shut the hell up with the dumbass questions. I’m trying to get rich and want the tax rates low just in case I get there.
lisoosh says:
March 7, 2009 at 9:29 pm
Nice Newsweek article on the topic of the other day:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/187933
“A War on the Rich?”
“The bogus GOP claim that Obama is bleeding the wealthy.”
This article is a bunch of bullspit. What is fails to mention is that on top of the damn tax increase, “That One” has a budget proposal that takes the damn tax money and re-distributes the wealth. He wants to raise my damn taxes and then skew the government spending such that I can’t get a benefit. It’s a damn double whammy and I don’t like it one bit.
Let me tell you something, I’d rather run through hell in gasoline underdrawers, than to be quiet around this theft of my wealth. What? You want to know why my interests are aligned with the wealthy when I’m not making $250,000? Shut the hell up with the dumbass questions. I’m trying to get rich and want the tax rates low just in case I get there.
lisoosh says:
March 7, 2009 at 9:29 pm
Nice Newsweek article on the topic of the other day:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/187933
“A War on the Rich?”
“The bogus GOP claim that Obama is bleeding the wealthy.”
SAS
You 6 points are a great reference, but without a critical mass of people behind you, any interference of those systems are futile
‘Run on UK’ sees foreign investors pull $1 trillion out of the City
A silent $1 trillion “Run on Britain” by foreign investors was revealed yesterday in the latest statistical releases from the Bank of England. The external liabilities of banks operating in the UK – that is monies held in the UK on behalf of foreign investors – fell by $1 trillion (£700bn) between the spring and the end of 2008, representing a huge loss of funds and of confidence in the City of London. Some $597.5bn was lost to the banks in the last quarter of last year alone, after a modest positive inflow in the summer, but a massive $682.5bn haemorrhaged in the second quarter of 2008 – a record. About 15 per cent of the monies held by foreigners in the UK were withdrawn over the period, leaving about $6 trillion. This is by far the largest withdrawal of foreign funds from the UK in recent decades – about 10 times what might flow out during a “normal” quarter.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/run-on-uk-sees-foreign-investors-pull-1-trillion-out-of-the-city-1639413.html
SAS
Retirement plans of millions of Britons at risk after Bank of England ‘prints money’
In a mere 24 hours the size of the pension deficits facing some of Britain’s biggest companies has jumped by around £100 billion to a record £390 billion – the equivalent of over £150,000 for every member of a final salary scheme. The increase is a direct result of the Bank’s announcement this week to create £150 billion and pour it directly into the financial system, experts said. The ballooning deficits sharply increase the chance that a swathe of companies shut down their pension schemes – not only for future employees but for those already paying into them.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/4950466/Retirement-plans-of-millions-of-Britons-at-risk-after-Bank-of-England-prints-money.html
cobbler says:
“If the said dentist has enough time on her hands to do cleanings and paperwork herself, and doesn’t mind doing them, she would be absolutely better off getting”
——
I had good experience at dentists that use hygienists. In places where the dentist takes care of everything, I have sensed that there was some “resentment” by the dentist [as if he/she is doing something menial or at a lower billing rate]. Sometimes the frustration of dentists seems overt, especially when I visited for simple cleaning and x-rays.
S
this is just a recession right?
when was the last time the president made statements asking people not to stuff their mattresses?
In a 35-minute conversation with The New York Times aboard Air Force One on Friday, Mr. Obama reviewed the challenges to his young administration. The president said he could not assure Americans the economy would begin growing again this year. But he pledged that he would “get all the pillars in place for recovery this year” and urged Americans not to “stuff money in their mattresses.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/08/us/politics/08obama.html?_r=2
NJRE bloggers rejoice!
New ‘safe’ bed allows savers to safely store their cash under the mattress
Bed manufacturer Feather & Black is offering savers who have lost faith in the banks somewhere to keep their money safely – under the mattress in a concealed safe.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/4938778/New-safe-bed-allows-savers-to-safely-store-their-cash-under-the-mattress.html
“Corzine also has considered higher taxes on cigarettes, wine, and liquor, but not beer.”
You gotta draw the line somewhere.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/front_page/20090308_Expect_more_bad_news_from_Corzine.html
#220 DL
Guess I can postpone that switch to Busch Light and stick with the good stuff…
Corzine makes McGreevey look like a great Governor.
How Hank Paulson Bailed Out Goldman
220 DL
Good. He can keep his hands off my Franziskaner.
OT
Like I said, it’s like living in an episode of The Sopranos:
http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2009/03/staten_island_stays_connected.html
Businessweek.com
Tell Us Your Real Estate Story
Today Hot Property is starting a new feature we’re calling Tell Us Your Real Estate Story. We’re looking for true tales from people buying, selling, or just trying to hang on to their homes. Send a photo of your house and share a bit of what you’ve learned during this slump to chris_palmeri@businessweek.com. We’ll publish it on the Web site. Realtors’ stories are welcome too! I’ll kick this off with my own recent tale:
DL
on beer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZoTJzh13n8&feature=related
the 3 beers mentioned.?.?.?
miller, coors, budweiser
bi (198)-
Yourself? In the foot?
“since this board got so excited again. i know it is time to pull the trigger to shoot something.”
NYTimes,
A Gloomy Outlook for Home Sales’ Big Season
But as the recession deepens, the downturn in housing, where the economic crisis began, is starting to play out in new, unexpected ways. Cities where home values held up last year are suffering now, while some suburban areas where prices plunged are slowly starting to improve.
In inland areas of California, for instance, sales are surging now that prices have fallen sharply. But most of the sellers are not individuals but rather banks that foreclosed on homeowners who could not or would not pay their mortgages.
By contrast, in cities like New York and San Francisco, where prices have not fallen as much, the market is largely frozen.
NY Mega Auction
MEGA-AUCTION TO HAMMER IT ‘HOME’
CITY’S BIGGEST-EVER FORECLOSE FIRE SALE
http://www.nypost.com/seven/03082009/news/regionalnews/mega_auction_to_hammer_it_home_158585.htm
sl (208)-
I let go $47,000 worth of salary two years ago, at the beginning of this mess. And, this person was good. She went right across the street to an insurance company and started working the next day. They got a good person, and I avoided bleeding my business dry.
Don’t worry. We are in competent hands. (Of course, you have to read foreign newspapers to find out these – government outlets aka MSM do not report these)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/4953523/Barack-Obama-too-tired-to-give-proper-welcome-to-Gordon-Brown.html
“Barack Obama’s offhand approach to Gordon Brown’s Washington visit last week came about because the president was facing exhaustion over America’s economic crisis and is unable to focus on foreign affairs, the Sunday Telegraph has been told..
Sources close to the White House say Mr Obama and his staff have been “overwhelmed” by the economic meltdown and have voiced concerns that the new president is not getting enough rest.”
but hey, at least we are reaching out to our new friends Taleban and Syria. Who needs Brits anyway.
DL (220)-
Is malt liquor considered beer?
Cobbler- 210
“both just to spite the Democrats,”
I find your assumption interesting however,
1) the family practitioner? Is trying to keep his office OPEN with rising insurance, overhead, etc. Shedding staff (much as he’d rather keep them there – esp since retraining new staff is costly — is a cost cutting measure.
I found out yesterday that he is switching his base hospital as the new one will give him a bigger stipend for bringing his patients to be admitted there.
So our hospital just lost a good internist
2) My OBGYN — one of the best ones I’ve ever had – left for NM a year ago because he couldn’t afford to keep his office open here from costs/malpractice/overhead and raise his family of 5 here.
It wasn’t because he didn’t earn enough to drive a Ferrari, own a mansion (he lived in West Orange in a “regular” house) or wanted megamillions —
3) My BIL is desperately trying to keep his business in engine rebuilding open with sinking sales — and keep his staff employed despite his not drawing a paycheck for the past 8 or 9 mos AND taking out a second mortgage to keep bills paid and the place OPEN.
You must not own a business because your assumptions simply don’t match reality.
Spite Democrats? .Wow.
sl
sl (233)-
This guy cobbler is a real joker. And, a sucker of the highest order.
I’ve been self-employed and/or run my own businesses for most of my adult life. If this cobbler fool came into my office, I think he could sink it in one week.
Clot 232.
Atleast YOU get it… I love people with their “assumptions” about what the “rich” are doing with their money.
Usually attempting to keep others employed while keeping their businesses alive.
sl
” I let go $47,000 worth of salary two years ago”
Even if that includes all benefit and goveenment payments you were making bec)se of employing her, that is a huge savings for a small business. To put that same $47k in your pocket, you would have to earn another 100k.
From that Telegraph piece:
“The official dismissed any notion of the special relationship, saying: “There’s nothing special about Britain. You’re just the same as the other 190 countries in the world. You shouldn’t expect special treatment.” The apparent lack of attention to detail by the Obama administration is indicative of what many believe to be Mr Obama’s determination to do too much too quickly.”
B.O.’s administration stinks so far. Are they really determined to damage the US/UK relationship or are they just that tone deaf?
#173, I don’t even think Jon Stewart is remotely funny or entertaining. The whole liberal mass media sztick…what a waste of money and resources, I’m so happy to see disney and GE go down the tubes.
On the other hand, regardless of what one thinks of Rush’s politics and views…the man is entertaining and engaging.
this “war on rich” (and “war on rush”) seem to take all energy from O administration. How about focusing on actual work, ie letting economy to grow and dealing foreign issues?
Minimum wage raise is another lunatic law. A lot of businesses had to cut the hours for the remaining workers (or let people to). Next week Congress votes to end the secret union ballot and instead letting external arbiter to decide how much of employer’s wealth should be confiscated and given to the union. This just means more outsourcing and it kills the incentive to grow here. Then we have the new US Exit Tax, raising the SS cap etc. New H1B limits means that companies (especially financials) have to fill the eventual new positions abroad instead here (often in NYC). We have already been filling positions abroad because of visa limits (and this probably leads to further growth in these non-US sites of ours). Also, businesses know that new anti-growth laws can and will be passed anytime.
Dems are dead serious about destroying the economy for decades.
sastry 217
Sometimes the frustration of dentists seems overt, especially when I visited for simple cleaning and x-rays.
How do you know what they are thinking? Maybe their wife/husband left them, or their kid was diagnosed with cancer, or other bad news?
How do you assume all this???
I get patients in the ER. They appear angry or sad or weird even. I ask them what is going on. It’s quite revealing.
How do you assume to know what they are thinking?
My original dentist in Edison did all his own cleanings and oral screening and he never seemed resentful.
Maybe you need a different dentist.
sl
Rush is a putz. George Will is thoughtful, reasoned, and insightful; compared to him, Limbaugh is a canival barker.
#215, the trillion dollar run on Great Britain,…why doesn’t the US annex Britain…heck, BAC bought Countrywide, no?
Shore: You are so right. That’s why it makes sense that the government (including White House) leads the campaign against Rush, and prepares to shut down his radio show through various “fairness/diversity doctrines”.
After all, why should we allow people to talk against the government?
#237 Shore Guy,,
They’re trying to complete the sweep Shrub started. Only the UK and a few other countries need to get p.o. at the US to be unanimous.
Shore – great article you posted upthread (190’s). Thanks.
About “feelings” of people performing jobs. Not to be crass but, who cares about the person’s feelings? If one has a job to do, what matters is performance — which includes interactions with clients/patients/customers. If one is happy as a clam but either does the job poorly or interacts poorly with customers, is that better than a person who hates their job yet sucks it up each day and does what is expected in the manner required? Performance trumps feelings, really. If one hates one’s job one can either leave it or get over it, train to get a better one, or do what is necessary to keep it. End of story
#239 sl,
I prefer dentists and doctors with little to no staff. The ones with big organizations seem to be chop shops that have to have a high patient turnover to cover payroll.
JBJB 210
It’s class warfare 101, and empty political rhetoric that will do nothing to make this country more financially sound, or improve “fairness” – whatever the hell that means.
Thank You. You (like Clot) also understand it!
When unemployment hit 12% those “crybabies” will have pared their offices/businesses to the quick and entered hibernation mode to survive.
The rest of the economy will be suffering the effects of continued job losses, recession and worse.
sl
sl – 208 and 233 –
Love you. But.
Your examples have nothing to do with a revert back to 2001 tax codes (36% on income over $250k) and everything to do with maintaining a business in a horrendous economy.
As such, your relatives actions are completely understandable and commendable, as are Clots in reducing his staff. As was my employer in not picking up the costs for my position when their donations were down $3mil and needed to save $1mil in order to maintain essential services for those they help.
Still nothing to do with tax reversion though.
lisoosh,
Sounds like a massive fraud where brokers get fees (and one wonders, kickbacks?) and borrowers live rent free (except for loan points (possibly kickbacks?) untile thrown out of the house. Wasn’t Florida where all the ex convicts were originating mortgages?
JBJB says:
March 7, 2009 at 11:12 pm
“FYI- It’s Obama and his sycophants who keeps telling us we can have the greatest welfare state in the world (as if this is a worthy goal) by simply raising taxes on the “rich” and giving free handouts to everyone else.”
If you want me to take you seriously in any way shape or form you need to find a better mind to draw your debates from than “Joe the Plumber”.
Shore – I think the most pertinent part is the “brokers get fees” aspect. And in the “condo conversion”, a building owner gone overboard with greed.
They need to come down on this with a ton of bricks. They should have years ago.
Always amuses me how apartment is a dirty word (as in living in one), and yet condo’s are quite socially acceptable even though for the purposes of lifestyle they are essentially the same.
I couldn’t care less if you take me seriously.
245 Shore,
About “feelings” of people performing jobs. Not to be crass but, who cares about the person’s feelings? If one has a job to do, what matters is performance — which includes interactions with clients/patients/customers.
Not in my line of work.
In my line of work “Patient Satisfaction” is the order of the day. Keep ’em happy at any cost.
You can test it yourself. Go to any ER. Ask for nearly the most ridiculous thing you could ask for — you will likely get it or something close to it.
[sigh..] I could tell you about example after example of it…
sl
lisoosh 248
Luvyatoobut,
You are about to see the effects down the pike.
This is gonna get much worse even before a tax reversion.
Just wait til after.
I didn’t want to think Clot was right. He is and the fear of what’s coming is creeping up large.
Unemployment at 12 or 15%? Yep.
sl
245 Shore and 253 SL
I have to agree with SL on this. The line of work dictates whether or not this is important. Where the line of work is a caretaker type (doctor, nurse, therapist, teacher, etc.), bedside manner is important. Who wants a caretaker that demeans them?
and to add to 254
Those income losses by small businesses will be translated into job losses. So yeah, it does pertain to now.
I’d argue it pertains to now even more so.
sl
safeas, 246
I agree.
sl
“Not in my line of work.
In my line of work Patient Satisfaction is the order of the day. Keep em happy at any cost”
L,
What I meant to communicate is that the inner feelings of the worker do not much matter as long as the job gets done according to standard — including whatever expectations there are for pleasing customers. If one’s life is in the dumps, and even one’s dog is no longer one’s friend, yet one comes to work and performs well, that is better for the employer and custo.ers than a really happy person who does not work well.
“The line of work dictates whether or not this is important. Where the line of work is a caretaker type (doctor, nurse, therapist, teacher, etc.), bedside manner is important. Who wants a caretaker that demeans them”
I did not suggest that outward attitude does matter; what I said was that the employee’s “feelings” are less important than his/her performance. I have seen pleanty of happy employees provide lousy service. If one is having a lousy topime of life but nevertheless does everything expected of them on the job, so be it. Work is an economic relationship.
259 Shore
Agreed. There are lots of happy people that are not good at their job and lots of miserable people that are very good at what they do. I thought the thread took a turn at 217 when Sastry mentioned “Sometimes the frustration of dentists seems overt, especially when I visited for simple cleaning and x-rays.” – that the focus then became whether or not one’s demeanor is important or not in their job. All I’m saying is in certain positions, attitude and performance are related.
” Patient Satisfaction is the order of the day. Keep em happy at any cost”
Sometimes the best thing one can do for a customer is to NOT give them what they want, but rather to guide them to what they NEED.
radio guy Ric Edelman ranting about how the PE is at 10, and 12 is the average.
He wants the world to be bullish.
Forbes: Higher Taxes: Will the Republicans Cry Wolf Again?
Republicans will undoubtedly make extravagant claims about the detrimental economic effect of these higher taxes. When one hears these claims, however, it is worth remembering that they said the same things in years past and none of their dire predictions came to pass.
According to a recent Treasury Department study, Ronald Reagan proposed the largest peacetime tax increase in American history as part of a budget deal to get the federal deficit under control. The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (TEFRA) of 1982 was signed into law on Sept. 3, and most of its provisions took effect on Jan. 1, 1983.
During debate on TEFRA, many conservatives predicted economic disaster. They argued that raising taxes in the midst of a severe recession was exactly the wrong thing to do. …
Looking at the data, however, it is very hard to see any evidence that TEFRA had a negative effect on growth. Indeed, one could easily make a case that its enactment stimulated growth. As one can see, the economy’s growth rates after TEFRA took effect were among the fastest in history.
http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2009/02/forbes-higher-taxes-will-the-republicans-cry-wolf-again.html
261 Shore
“Sometimes the best thing one can do for a customer is to NOT give them what they want, but rather to guide them to what they NEED.”
AMEN! Unfortunately, this is why we will have a society that will not be able to function. They are so used to getting what they want, they have no idea what they need, or what they need to do to stand on their own two feet. You all think the college kids with no work ethic is bad? Unless parents instill hard work as a value in the younger children now, you will see more of the same if not worse coming up.
This is an article from 2003. 2 years after Bush implemented tax cuts which were supposed to stimulate growth and jobs.
HIRING IN NATION HITS WORST SLUMP IN NEARLY 20 YEARS
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9807E0D6163BF935A35751C0A9659C8B63&scp=4&sq=jobless%20recovery&st=cse
Clotpoll says:
March 6, 2009 at 2:31 pm
DL (303)-
Arn Anderson was always my favorite.
One mean sumbitch.
Clot, were you a wrestling fan in the 80s? so cool. i was partial to Ricky the Dragon Steamboat.
Shore, 261
I agree with you.
Hospital administration agrees with Press Ganey.
sl
lost 264
as in 267, I agree with you. If I told you that my job security depends on “keeping patients happy” would you believe me?
It does.
I’d tell you more but I’m already bristling.
sl
Chucky Schumer on Meet the Press defending the big banks and Geithner again.
Here is some thread music.
Rammstein – We are living in Amerika
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4w9EksAo5hY&playnext_from=PL&feature=PlayList&p=E3F0027ABC27F4AA&index=0
“my job security depends on keeping patients happy”
I am sure that happy and dead is far better than healthy, alive, and somewhat put-off. After all, it is important to die happy, no?
268 SL
Of course I’d believe you, because my job entails the same. This is a conversation to have at a gtg.
“since this board got so excited again. i know it is time to pull the trigger to shoot something.”
Bi,
A little difficult when you are working with a water pistol. No?
‘Run on UK’ sees foreign investors pull $1 trillion out of the City”
Kettle,
Bitter or lager, mate?
I saved about 15 listings I gathered at open houses around 2 years ago. I looked through the listings in today’s Bergen Record. I compared my listings to those in the paper. I couldn’t tell the difference.
“Bed manufacturer Feather & Black is offering savers who have lost faith in the banks somewhere to keep their money safely – under the mattress in a concealed safe.”
Kettle.
Wake me up when they offer one with a vault.
None of this has anything to do with taxes to me but it does have to do with government or business – who do you want running America?
Granted, business “innovation” (structured finance) has caused the problems we now face. That, and not regulating them.
Like a kid with a new toy, we played with the thing until we destroyed it.
http://www.getrichslowly.org/blog/2006/11/28/the-secret-history-of-the-credit-card-repeat/
Here’s another example of “innovation” that scr@wed America –
Citibank finding a way around the usury laws and initially setting up in South Dakota (discarded usury laws)then using an obscure Supreme Court decision to export its higher interest rates all over the entire country.
Then this Andrew Kahr guy comes along and convinces banks to lower the minimum payment and raise credit limits which causes profits to soar.
This is in the early 80’s. I’d lay some blame on this doorstep for the mess we are in too.
I have a point here somewhere, let me try to convey it:
We innovated ourselves into this mess and we may need to innovate ourselves out if it. The government is not very innovative.
Oh Yeah, we need some government help bigtime right now. There is a gaping hole in the economy the consumer can no longer fill. But new business ventures? (Health care/green energy) There must be a way for the market/business community to run the show not the government. I’ll even pay higher taxes to pay toward the deficit and help people stay employed. But I shudder to think about new programs when the government allows fraud and corruption with the power they already have.
Phew, I’m reading way too much lately. I need to correct Friday’s tests. I know it’s Sunday, but I’m a teacher – not a preacher. Sorry.
gary,
You’re just looking at the wrong listings.
Here’s a 52k/12% list below 2006 sales price in Summit.
http://www.trulia.com/property/1005311743-26-Huntley-Rd-Summit-NJ-07901
#278
All info came from Trulia.
lost 272
I’d love to!
The collateral damage of “the customer/patient is always right” is unbelievable in my field.
Would love to hear what it’s doing to yours…
sl
time to go see the light a day for a while before another soul-sucking day in the pit.
will see you folks around 0300…
sl
“You 6 points are a great reference, but without a critical mass of people behind you, any interference of those systems are futile”
I agree. for real change, there has to be a mass movement.
but, the 6 points let you know how and what stage is being done to us all.
Things can change, it will have to take a collected effeort.
I don’t think people really want change they just want their govt check and thats it.
SAS
but, I’ve said all along.
Keep your eyes on the pension funds.
cause I’ve always thought that once those are gone, or taken away.
Look out.
Your change/revolution will come.
SAS
If car sales suck all year,would the 09s become a collectible in the future due to their scarcity compared to 08, 07, etc?
Collectible. I’ve got a nice Bimmer they only made for one year. 330 model from 06 new body style…now they only offer the 328 or the 335…
Essex,
other than playing tidlewinks with your Bimmer.
Go get yourself a firearm, cause your wee alarm doesn’t do anything.
I can cut and dismantle that thing “lick split like” and you wouldn’t know it.
SAS
Essex,
i onll say it cause I care.
:P
SAS
SAS,
What are your thoughts on moving to Taiwan or Argentina?
barien
taiwan? very bad idea! an island that cannot support its own population without imported food and other essentials, and in a long term “conflict” with china over sovereignty……
Asia is not a good place to be for the next decade or so…
Argentina may be better, it has substantial natural resources, but the unstable social situation must be accounted for.
As other have pointed out, there is no prefect escape locale. every one will part of this $hitstorm
“What are your thoughts on moving to Taiwan or Argentina?”
Both places are great to visit.
Taiwan, I would never live there. It has the potential to be a hot spot btw China (return to the mother land) & US.
Argentina from my understanding has it troubles too, dont think I would want to live there.
I prefer Uruguay myself.
but, if one is looking to get out of the states in fear of instability, I think that might be a big jump of events and a major move.
No doubt rough times are ahead with the possibility of some civil unrest. But, I don’t think it will get so hog wild and violent the authorities can’t handle it, cause they can and will.
Why? too many awesome crowd control weapons. you don’t think they prep for and think of these things.
but, things have the potential to unrecognizable. i.e not being the USA you and I grew up in.
I hope I’m wrong cause I have kids & grandkids, and no one will put them in a FEMA camp…. I come across as jolly, and I am, but make no mistake, I have skeletons in my closet.
SAS
taiwan and argentina do not have tax treaty with the us, so possible income there would be double-taxed (unless you pull off geithner/rangels/marcrichs)
I don’t think anyone should fear the future so much they should leave the states.
If one is that uneasy about the future, I would consider moving away from this area, maybe somewhere in the west.
SAS
SAS, Cindy
The current system seems to be heavily tied to a technique that the US military has mastered.
Dehumanize your target and normal human boundaries are easily bypassed. See a book called “On Killing” by dave grossman.
By teaching people to see other humans as “targets” or “consumers” instead of people, normal mental barriers to destructive behavior are easily over come.
Abu Gharib is a good example. many of the people involved in that mess were probably decent people. However once you train someone to mentally see another human as something other then human ( target, prisoner, consumer) they are capable of committing acts that they would never do to another “person”, whether its torture or intentionally selling a product to someone who can never pay for it.
I highly recommend that book if you want to understand the psychology that got use to where we are now, i.e “consumers” instead of citizens
” I would consider moving away from this area, maybe somewhere in the west”
If fearing a meltdown, it should be someplace away from a major metro area and someplace with pleanty of natural fresh water supplies, even in dry times. Maybe someplace like MN or WI
speaking of “civil unrest”
might want to review the events of Katrina. Its a perfect example of how things will play out if there was ever a true SHTF.
SAS
SAS
Why? too many awesome crowd control weapons. you don’t think they prep for and think of these things.
i am not so sure about this. It oonly takes a few technical indivuals to teach the “insurgents” how to counter these weapons. those few technical individuals can have a highly multiplied effect and the people they teach dont need to understand why, how to “point and shoot” the counter methods.
Look at how the insurgents in iraq started to use EFP’s to overcome the increased use of US armor….
Clotpoll says:
March 8, 2009 at 8:01 am
sl (233)-
This guy cobbler is a real joker. And, a
sucker of the highest order.
I’ve been self-employed and/or run my own businesses for most of my adult life. If
this cobbler fool came into my office,
I think he could sink it in one week.
Well, I did own a business for about 7 years, and actually didn’t sink it but rather sold it back in 1997 for a good (for me) amount of money. I probably can sink YOUR office in one week, if this what you’d like me to do… Name calling like yours probably will do the trick. And I don’t believe that 3% difference in the marginal tax rate will make any difference in the business decisions of the people whose net incomes are under 500-600K or so.
“The current system seems to be heavily tied to a technique that the US military has mastered.
By teaching people to see other humans as “targets” or “consumers” instead of people”
your forgetting my hx bloke :)
SAS
“another soul-sucking day in the pit”
It kinda makes all the time and expense of getting a medical license seem worth it.
SAS
If the US starts to whip out all of its high tech “less lethal” weapons on US civillians, they could be playing with fire. A large number of iraq Vets that are highly trained in insurgent/counterinsurgency techniques, a very high gun ownership rate, and a population that has a number of very smart technical people.
History shows that “insurgent” type efforts can be highly successful in managed properly, even against massive, and advanced standing armies
SAS
your forgetting my hx bloke :)
what????
(297) “And I don’t believe that 3% difference in the marginal tax rate will make any difference in the business decisions of the people whose net incomes are under 500-600K or so.”
Of course it won’t – just like it didn’t during the 1990’s. Conservatives are just being selfish crybabies.
kettle,
“i am not so sure about this”
we might have to agree to disagree on this point.
but, don’t just think of it as an only a weapons pov.
think of it as a web. that web has great crowd control weapons, but they web also has survailance (even nano), and plants all over the place.
There are even plants in the churches.
2 movies you should watch:
-Bourne Identity: silly plot and corny hollywood, but what is accurate is how they come at you at all angles non stop.
cause thats how its done
-Battle of ALgiers, there is a classic scene in that movie when the guy writes on a chalkbaord to describe this web, terrorits use it, but its the covert military that are does it best.
Truth is indeed stranger than fiction.
SAS
kettle,
sometimes when I talk about the “trillions+ missing money” from the books of the DOD, Pentagon, and govt financials, I ask the question:
“where did it go?”
to a certain degree, I know the answer. Some of this missing money goes to black operations and the design and manufactor of weapons.
SAS
and real estate always goes up.
buy now or be priced out forever.
wall st bonuses, they go out and buy RE.
SAS
“Some of this missing money goes to black operations and the design and manufactor of weapons”
its a small percentage of the missing money, where the bulk of it goes..
nobody knows for sure.
SAS
cobbler (297)-
It’s not the jacking of the marginal tax rate that’s the problem. It’s WHY it is being done, which is to placate the proletariat. Far easier to appeal to their desire to see the rich soaked than to try and actually fix the problem.
And, the problem can’t be fixed, because the only thing that will work is shutting down AIG, BAC, C and other zombie financial institutions. The zombies will bankrupt the country and start a depression rather than sacrifice their complete control of everything. Very hard for O and the puppets in DC to acknowledge (even to themselves) that they are totally controlled by the zombies, so they offer placebo to the masses in the form of the red, red meat of the evil rich.
SAS
we dont disagree. I was pointing out the potential. to utilize that potential you would need a small core of capable motivated individuals who had the knowledge of how to confront and move amongst the “web” as you describe it.
Another aspect is that is such a core group existed and were motivated enough they could make contact with the chinese/ iranians or other who would be able and willing to provide support in many forms, from intel to equipment to capital.
cobbler (297)-
Your arbitrary choice of 500-600K is a strawman, to boot.
Perhaps cobbler will begin to worry when 100K is considered rich, and AIG’s bailout passes the trillion mark.
If anybody thinks I’m dreaming in #310, think again.
JP Morgan in trouble.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83UUkiLyd0U&feature=channel_page
“you would need a small core of capable motivated individuals who had the knowledge of how to confront and move amongst the “web” as you describe it”
In my exp, damn near impossbile.
The grid is already in place.
In any case, lets hope it never gets this bad they we have to draw up plans:)
SAS
“damn near impossbile”
on second thought, thats not true.
we did some dirty little tricks to Russia, while IN Russia, back in the day.
how we pulled off some of the things we did, I have no idea.
I guess a broken clock is right twice a day.
SAS
“when 100K is considered rich, and AIG’s bailout passes the trillion mark”
hear..hear..
agreed
SAS
JBJB says:
March 8, 2009 at 8:42 am
“I couldn’t care less if you take me seriously.”
Obviously.
kettle and sas
That’s what I thought about Taiwan too. Great to visit, love the food, but hotspot with China. Plus my mother-in-law is there and drives me crazy.
still_looking says:
March 8, 2009 at 8:51 am
“and to add to 254
Those income losses by small businesses will be translated into job losses. So yeah, it does pertain to now.
I’d argue it pertains to now even more so.”
Absolutely true. And I agree that unemployment will go higher, up to 12 or 15% easily. And yes, I know that most people are employed by small businesses.
BUT……
I don’t get this presentation seen now (not directed at you) in what I can only call a propagandizing manner of small business owner as some kind of social workers of the commercial and industrial world.
Small business owners are in it for two things – sense of independance and the possibility of good/great money.
When doing well, the owners do well, very well usually (compared to salaried workers) as a result of taking on increased risk.
They don’t hire workers out of a sense of social justice, but in order to increase the bottom line – either directly, as with a sales force, or indirectly by providing additional value or convenience to customers (receptionist for instance).
Those employees contribute to the bottom line but don’t reap the benefits of the risk taken. On the other hand they won’t initially feel the first of the pain when things go bad if the business owner sees value in well trained and reliable employees. Eventually when things get really bad the employees bear the brunt of it by losing jobs before the owner takes the ultimate drastic measure of closing the business.
In an at-will world, there is no “right to work”, but by the same token there is no absolute right to guaranteed profits for the owner either.
The economy is down, pretty much everyone is suffering. That still doesn’t pertain the the taxes reverting back.
Prevention would have been better. When deciding to spend a fortune invading a country, how nice if Bush had had the cojones to stand up and decide NOT to cut taxes in the face of huge increases in expenses. How nice if he hadn’t caved to AARP and pushed through the Medicare drug benefit.
The “war on the rich” thing is jingoistic propaganda, pure and simple. Just because it is put out by the party who just lost power rather than the one in office right now doesn’t make it less so.
SAS
once again, we have to chat at a GTG.
pointed out before by others…
municipal tax revenue….
If housing values drop 50% that means that a municipality has lost a significant portion of its tax income. WHile this has been pointed out, the end effect is likely largely underestimated by the majority.
thats when things get really interesting in places NJ
clotpoll [307]
Letting several major banks + AIG fail will be as bad for the taxpayers (if not worse) than supporting them as zombies. The reason is that so many life insurers, pension plans, annuities, etc. depend on their bonds and preferred stock to pay the obligations. If they (the banks) fail we’ll spend more through the PBGC and state insurance guarantees (whatever their name) than what we save on not keeping these zombies alive. Nationalizing them will do the same thing, it’s a no-win situation. The only way to get out is by essential annulment of the debt – that is by inflating it away, as bad as it is for the savers. Another way (which will not be pursued) is to declare all non-regulated swaps null and void.
[320] kettle
Tax rate is established based on the approved budgets – so the rate will go up a lot if there is a revaluation, but the absolute tax amount (which is what you care about) will likely continue going up at (an average) single %. In many towns last revaluation had been done in the 90s, anyway… The overall level of property taxes in NJ is totally unbearable, but this is a different story – to help here, we need to get rid of the public sector unions (will not happen).
Even more propagandistic aspect of the “war on the rich” (who aren’t really rich) drumbeat?
It encourages the better off to get mad at the guys making $36k who don’t care about their having to pay an extra $1k a year in taxes – calling them the proletariat or parasites looking for free handouts. THAT really is a call for class warfare.
Instead they should be mad at the ultra wealthy scurrying to protect their sources of wealth – the Goldman Sachs and AIG crowd.
$36k guy doesn’t care about your taxes, he’s too busy worrying about paying his bills. $50k guy is worried about holding on to his job and making his car payment. $100k guy is wondering why he makes 6 figures but can’t buy a house that isn’t falling apart and is also scared to lose his job because his wife is expecting.
None of them are obsessing with forcing anybody to fork over an extra grand in taxes, nor are they expecting freebies and handouts.
The AIG crowd is. And getting them. Direct you anger where is should be, not at the saps just trying to keep their heads above water.
“how we pulled off some of the things we did, I have no idea”
lets put it this way:
I don’t care what anyone says,
call girls, vodka, and cigs go along way.
SAS
“It’s not the jacking of the marginal tax rate that’s the problem. It’s WHY it is being done, which is to placate the proletariat. Far easier to appeal to their desire to see the rich soaked than to try and actually fix the problem.”
Exactly, well said Clot.
Kettle 320 – Unfortunatlely, the municipal spend rate will likely stay the same, even if true property valuation goes down through appeals. The tax rate will just be hiked even more to compensate for it.
Last year when Montclair’s BOE announced their preliminary tax rate, they did it with town valuation numbers that were one year out of date. People got very angy because what originally was supposed to be a 5% spending increase appeared to be a 7% increase. The budget actually increased 5%, but because the value of the ratables went down, the tax rate increased 7%.
http://www.baristanet.com/2008/06/more_mistakes_about_montclair.php
“Letting several major banks + AIG fail will be as bad for the taxpayers (if not worse) than supporting them as zombies”
Let us assume the options bring a similar level of cost and pain. If so, let them fail. As long as there will be suffering, letting tham fasil allows toe ones responsible to feeal REAL pain too, just like the rest of us who are going to feel the pain of saving the zombies.
327] shore
Why spending your taxes to replenish FDIC and PBGC funds is any better than to just keep C and AIG afloat – especially, since the latter expense is more quantifiable?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PFCgAhZEO8
It’s been a long time comin’…
It appears to be a long time before the dawn.
Man I listened to CSN/CSNY a lot..my garage group still sings this…we fade into Runaway.
http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&q=runaway+bonny+rait&um=1&ie=UTF-8&ei=RhW0SdnqMJmMsQOIupCNAQ&sa=X&oi=video_result_group&resnum=4&ct=title#
Bonnie…
From the stretched out “long – time – comin'” we just head into…”run – run – run away.” It works, honest.
Clot – Is O’s plan is to expand the proletariat, by meeting all of their needs, so they can’t make a stink or they will be left without a pot to p!ss in?
Kettle (293) Kids are playing video games they shouldn’t. I hear about it.
cobbler has threaded the needle in a most curious fashion. He is both a bleeding heart liberal and a f@scist.
332 – Clot Is O’s plan to expand… – I have an extra “is.”
“Massive Housing Auction Held in Javits Center”
http://www.1010wins.com/Going-Once–Going-Twice—/3979528
General Motors should hand over the factory keys to a bankruptcy court, two top Republicans said Sunday.
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said the best thing for the ailing automaker to do would be to go into Chapter 11 to reorganize some of its business agreements and come out stronger than before.
“I think the best thing that could probably happen to General Motors, in my view, is they go into Chapter 11, they reorganize, they renegotiate … the union-management contracts and come out of it a stronger, better, leaner, more competitive automotive industry,” McCain told “FOX News Sunday.”
House Republican leader John Boehner said the nation’s largest auto company must demonstrate a viable and long-term business plan if it wants more federal money
snip
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/03/08/republicans-gm-declare-bankruptcy/
Hey Grim,
Time to reset the server clock.
337 – That is something I agree with.
Is there anyone who can give a history on MLS #2846779. It is in Englewood, was just recently lowered from $607k to $599k.
Frank Hague;
http://www.cityofjerseycity.org/hague/moreonhague.shtml
since we speak frequently about food on this blogspot:
“Expo crowd told beef industry is nearing crisis”
http://tinyurl.com/dzmfsz
-The domestic cattle herd is shrinking
-start thinking about food as a national security item
-the federal government encourages the type of concentrated cattle industry that has overtaken hogs and poultry.
“Bailout for The Mainstream Media May be Next”
http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/03/bailout-for-the-mainstream-media-may-be-next/
lisoosh (323) – Well said.
From NY Times: What Contract?
“The sudden demand has sent lawyers scurrying to uncover avant-garde legal tactics for ducking out of a deal. Downtown conversions like 75 Wall Street and new developments like One Hunters Point in Long Island City are facing suits from buyers seeking to break contracts on the basis of a once-obscure consumer protection law.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/08/realestate/08Cov.html?_r=1&ref=realestate
From NY Times:
Looking for Bottom in N.Y. Real Estate
“WITH sales prices of Manhattan apartments having tumbled by perhaps a quarter in just the past few months, pinpointing the bottom has become a top priority for anyone eager to buy, sell or broker a deal on a home in New York.
Some industry observers foresee market drops of 40 percent, while others think that is too extreme and suggest that price reductions of 25 percent will more be likely the new norm. ”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/08/realestate/08condo.html?ref=realestate
#346 ANti: Some industry observers foresee market drops of 40 percent, while others think that is too extreme,
40% is not extreme enough. Just who do they think will be left to buy these things at anything but a huge price decrease.
Okay. All of those suffering from: You Cannot Walk and Chew Gum At The Same Time Syndrome-Listen up! Get over to the central planners at the central office and they will help you fill ou the various forms needed so that your lobbyists can interact with elected officials. You have been granted status under the law. DO NOT follow the signs that read : Caput tuum in ano est this way-that’s an entirely different matter. Again, the uber wealthy international corporatists would like to thank you for all you efforts on their behalf.
Good luck. Thank you
cobbler
trying to make up the shortfall in municipal taxes wont work. its not working in CA and it doesnt work in detroit.
the montclair example is a case where the full force of this crisis isnt even close to hitting yet. you can squeeze blood from a stone. if the people dont have the money the wont pay or will leave.
knowing NJ government, most towns will struggle along trying the tax increase game until some point before this crisis is really over you will see some towns collapse
40% drop???
try 70-80% drop from peak to bottom.
SAS,
have heard that the KGB had/has some of the most talented agents in the world at seducing foreign diplomats and such to obtain information. have heard that the isreali’s are very good at that tactic as well.
Go to hell, Dook!
“most towns will struggle along trying the tax increase game until some point before this crisis is really over you will see some towns collapse”
thats the whole point of the so called “stimulus package”.
Its gives municipalities a time delay.
Give the towns money, to just put off the inevitable: bankrupcy or collapse.
Wait till Oct… yikes!
SAS
kettle1,
you heard correctly.
believe it or not, way back when, Iraq and a very mean & efficient little team themselves.
SAS
[334]clot
I don’t know why telling that only if the public sector unions are abolished could the NJ tax burden be reduced makes me a fascist. I think it is self-obvious, and will never happen.
I believe that the govt has many needed and important things to do (universal health care is one; adequate old age pensions w/o gimmicks like 401K is the other; I guess this makes me a bleeding heart liberal in your eyes), and needs more taxes instead of the contributions we are making for medical coverage and 401K to get there – but I don’t see any reason why the govt employees have to have higher pay, better job security or plusher benefits than the rest of us.
“Iraq had”
think it was in the early 90 or late 8os when I had a little rondevu with them. I can’t remember anymore.
They learned from the USA, with their own little middle east twist.
SAS
[349] kettle
Tax lien goes before the mortgage – so the people will abandon their houses only if their tax debt is greater than what the house is worth (unless they plan to default on the mortgage). It certainly is the case in Detroit where the average price is 10K (or is it median, I don’t remember). In NJ the cities might be endangered – but actually the property taxes there are low thanks to Abbott. Don’t forget that in non-Abbott towns 60% or more of the taxes goes to the school district. Run for the Board of Ed in your town, and see if you could reduce the budget…
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/09/nyregion/09foreclosure.html?hp
A respected pastor, best-selling author and founder of a major ministry to teens predicts an imminent “an earth-shattering calamity” centered in New York City that will spread to major urban areas across the country and around the world – part of what he sees as a judgment from God.
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=91097
cobbler
Run for the Board of Ed in your town, and see if you could reduce the budget…
no thanks. have seen the shenanigans that goes on 2nd hand, and dont care to experience it first hand.
Its pointless to fight the system when the sheep still want that same system in place. better to learn the rules and use them to your advantage
“Clot – Is O’s plan is to expand the proletariat, by meeting all of their needs, so they can’t make a stink or they will be left without a pot to p!ss in?”
Cindy,
All a stroke job. The idiots think that is the case. However, the printing of money will cause a massive increase in prices, and the rise in (nominal) wages will lag far behind the rise in prices. So the working man/woman will suffer a fall in real wages and his/her purchasing power will decline. The tax the “so called” rich policy? That’s easy, O has to convince the normal blue collar Democratic voter that he is robbing from the rich to give to the poor. The rich, they don’t care that their rate is 2-3% higher, they move their investments into areas to take advantage of the of the printing press. The rich and corporations laugh as the poor get hammered. Who wins this game?
Same as it always was.
The New F***ing Citibank
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/c130f64d6f/the-new-f-ing-citibank#player
The Next Hit: Quick Defaults
In the past year alone, the number of borrowers who failed to make more than a single payment before defaulting on FHA-backed mortgages has nearly tripled, far outpacing the agency’s overall growth in new loans, according to a Washington Post analysis of federal data. Many industry experts attribute the jump in these instant defaults to factors that include the weak economy, lax scrutiny of prospective borrowers and most notably, foul play among unscrupulous lenders looking to make a quick buck. If a loan “is going into default immediately, it clearly suggests impropriety and fraudulent activity,” said Kenneth Donohue, the inspector general of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which includes the FHA. The spike in quick defaults follows the pattern that preceded the collapse of the subprime market as some of the same flawed lending practices that contributed to the mortgage crisis are now eroding one of the main federal agencies charged with addressing it.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/07/AR2009030702257.html?sid=ST2009030702455
another state in trouble
Indiana jobless fund could take decade to fix
Imagine racking up nearly $3 million in debt every day. That’s more than $100,000 an hour, or about $2,000 a minute. Indiana is diving deeper into debt as it struggles to pay jobless benefits from its bankrupt unemployment insurance fund, which is paying out hundreds of millions more than it collects in taxes from employers. The state is now on track to owe the federal government $1.2 billion by year’s end. The scope of the problem is so huge that even if lawmakers quickly agree on a way to rebalance the off-kilter fund, it could take years — or possibly a decade — for the account to repair itself. “As the situation grows steadily each day, it is a very realistic time frame to look at eight to ten years,” said Rep. David Niezgodski, a Democrat from South Bend who chairs the House labor committee.
http://www.theheraldbulletin.com/statenews/local_story_066194853.html
Sarcramento struggles with spiraling homelessness problem
Sacramento has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the United States. As many as 50 people a week arrive at the tent city and the authorities estimate it is now home to more than 1,200 people. Now its homeless population hope an Oprah TV show about recession, foreclosures and homelessness will help them out of poverty. They hope the segment on the national talk show will prompt more donations and government help. Producers visited Sacramento in February to visit the homeless shelters.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/4946613/Sarcramento-struggles-with-spiralling-homelessness-problem.html
The plight of young, uninsured Americans
They’re generally healthy and have a long life ahead of them. The health insurance industry even calls them ‘the young invincibles.’ So, what’s the problem? Young adults, ages 19 to 29, are the largest age group of uninsured people across the country. For Maryland resident Bree Honey, all she can do for her chronic back pain right now is to exercise at the gym where she works and take Tylenol PM instead of other medicine she needs. “I’m definitely working out right, to try and keep my strength up and to help my immune system right now. … It’s the best thing I can do for myself,” Honey said.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/03/07/young.uninsured/
(360) BC
“However, the printing of money will cause a massive increase in prices, and the rise in (nominal) wages will suffer a fall in real wages and his/her purchasing power will decline.”
Here in CA, I pay 9.3% in state income tax (anyone who earns more than $47,000 a year does – 1 mil adds 1% more.) Well the state sales tax is 8.975 and my city just tried to pass a penny more. No go. These are the folks who took a 5% pay cut a few months back and normally, it would have passed. We consider ourselves to be a pretty safe place and have historically oked whatever has been needed. Those days are gone.
So this year our sales tax and income tax goes up but nobody has seen a raise in years. Cuts are more common, just like Stu etc.
So even without adding inflation – we are already seeing a drop in purchasing power.
hx = history
SAS
Some cynical shit on the board today. As usual.
“Some cynical shit on the board today. As usual”
come now Essex, put a smile on your face.
SAS
“Hot dog sales sizzle during downturn”
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/03/06/mm_hotdog/
so, with people trending towards crappy, sh*t food,… that the cancer rate will skyrocket in about 10 years?
I better become an oncologist.
SAS
#365 So if you are an employer in NJ and offer health care to your employees, you must also offer coverage to your employees’ children til age 30? How much does that add to the cost of doing business?
369…per your rec SAS i did watch Bourne today….great flick…thanks!
sas says:
March 8, 2009 at 11:40 am
speaking of “civil unrest”
might want to review the events of Katrina. Its a perfect example of how things will play out if there was ever a true SHTF.
SAS
you mean like the military confiscating the weapons of responsible people?
and in a scenario like that, couldn’t you just lie to the cops and say you sold the weapon?
This was said already, but I doubt we have ever heard scarier thing from White House:
“Sources close to the White House say Mr Obama and his staff have been “overwhelmed” by the economic meltdown and have voiced concerns that the new president is not getting enough rest.”
If we have to deal with a major terror attack or act of war, this creepy nobody is in charge of the country for the next 4 years? God, I feel safe.
http://www.uslaw.com/library/Bankruptcy/2005_Amendments_Bankruptcy_Code_Lead_Failures_Financial_Institutions.php?item=284565
Has anyone heard of this? It was talked about on another blog recently: BAPCPA – Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005
Does that name mention derivatives?
“Wallstreet unwittingly created one of the catalysts for the collapse of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and American International Group by backing new bankruptcy rules that were aimed at insulating banks from failure of a big client, lawyers and bankers say.
“The 2005 change made clear that certain derivatives and financial transactions were exempt from provisions in the bankruptcy code that freeze a failed company’s assets until a court decides how to apportion them among creditors.”
No wonder they don’t want any of these folks in bankruptcy – the derivatives go to the head of the line – no questions asked. In AIG’s case, that would be ahead of insurance policy holders, etc.
Oh the tangled web we weave. Those folks put up the money to get that passed.
Also the credit card companies – I read on another site – spent $100 million to make it harder to get out of paying your CC debt. It is now prioritized ahead of child support.
NK may be the ultimate meltdown for the overwhelmed “not getting enough rest” guy. This can get ugly. President Biden in charge pretty soon?
“North Korea says it has put its military on full combat alert in advance of a big military exercise by US and South Korean forces.
The official news agency called the manoeuvres a dangerous provocation. “
[372] outofstater
You have to allow them to buy into your group plan (like COBRA), not give them a subsidy – the main risk is if they are seriously ill, your group rate will go up. Another argument for the universal health care which would allow them to buy into Medicare-like program.
Hi Guys,
A couple of thoughts from the commercial / institutional world, while I am still there; markets are paralyzed. Owners are playing chicken with lenders on larger assets $20mm and over. Owners are underwater tenants are not paying. Lenders are trying to put the screws to borrowers but they do not have the ability to take the assets back on their books.
It’s a Mexican stand off that is only getting worse as debt matures and LTC’s and DSCR’s failures mount. There is a log jam building. Until the powers that be allow the market to work its healing magic, write-down, take backs, workouts etc we are delaying the inevitable. And the inevitable is an opportunity to make some real money at real prices.
Just a lurkers thoughts.
None of which portends a speedy recovery.
373…the last guy slept like a baby for eight f**king years.
This guy is going to sleep for another 6 months and wake up and realize he’s paper thin, we are all in a world of trouble.
All these politicians are the same, but The One plans of have his hand so far in my pocket the least he could give me is a happy ending.
cobbler (354)-
When did I say anything about public employees’ unions? You seem to excel in moving targets and strawman arguments.
However, your faith in the ability of the gubmint to protect people from themselves- while simultaneously restructuring and taking over control of both the healthcare and pension systems (by centralizing their control and expanding their capital outlay in both areas)- is both childlike and Panglossian, to say the least.
BC (360)-
Try telling that to cobbler. In his fantasy world, the gubmint fixes everything.
vodka (362)-
Remember a few months back, when I called FHA “the original subprime”?
Well, damn if I wasn’t right.
BTW, all the old subprime crooks are in the FHA origination game right here, right now. I know for a fact one 200mm+ shop is also running a fake verification-of-employment call center.
The tsunami of shit from all this may outlive us.
sx (368)-
So gimme a fcuking Milkbone.
“Some cynical shit on the board today. As usual.”
jamil (375)-
NK’s military goes on full alert when Kim Jong-Il gets a boner.
Give it a rest.
Buckle in, its going to be a bumpy ride
[383] clotpoll
I mentioned the public employee unions since I guessed it had been this opinion of mine that you construed as fascistic. I did not intend to create a straw man. Regarding the govt and the control of health care and pension systems – I don’t think anyone could manage them worse then they currently are handled by the private sector. I will happily pay for Medicare-equivalent coverage what they currently deduct for the medical from my paycheck.
cobbler (383)-
You’re joking here, right?
“Regarding the govt and the control of health care and pension systems – I don’t think anyone could manage them worse then they currently are handled by the private sector. I will happily pay for Medicare-equivalent coverage what they currently deduct for the medical from my paycheck.”
How can you “happily pay for Medicare-equivalent coverage while you’re warming yourself near a trash barrel fire and dumpster-diving for your next meal.
Because that’s the result of the “plan” your current gubmint is now pursuing.
I hated Reagan as a politician. I still think he started a lot of things spinning that are coming unwound today.
But he sure as hell was right when he called bullshit on the gubmint’s ability to improve anything:
“We’re from the government and we’re here to help.”
The only way the gubmint’s power can be turned to legitimate purposes is for the gubmint to be destroyed and re-created. It is too corrupt, too beholden to WS and too far gone to do anything other than exacerbate general suffering while enriching the criminal few.
I think LordJohnWarfen is John. And, he may have had a road-to-Damascus conversion.
The “happy ending” reference at #381 is highly suspicious. :)
[390] clotpoll
Your argument assumes there will be food in the dumpsters…
Seriously – we as a country have been consuming probably 30% more than we deserve based on productivity for the last 20 and especially last 10 years. There is no way the situation will stabilize unless we start gobbling up a third less stuff. What you are suggesting – to just let the things collapse and wait till they naturally organize themselves will lead to half of the people dumpster-diving for food, likely will result in the major riots you are warning/dreaming about, and will throw the country back by 50 years or more. On the other hand, getting to the same goal of reduced consumption via reducing inequality of incomes and getting rid of outright money-sucking junk like our 401K pension system and current healthcare will make the road unhappy but smooth and reasonably fast, and with less chance to overshoot the target.
still_looking #239: [responding to my #217]
How do you assume all this???
—
With respect to what the dentists are thinking when they appear resentful when cleaning…
I’ve had three dentists that behaved rudely when I went for cleanups [my insurance is a low-end one accepted by a limited set of dentists]. Among the three, there was one who once had a hygienist, and later didn’t have her, and I saw the difference in the quality of care.
Two other dentists that have hygienists … the experience was much more pleasant [and continues to be] — two dentists because I have a primary and the more serious problems one :)
The correlation I could make was with the estimate of money that my visit would pay to the dentist’s office. It is a crude estimate, but…
One of the dentists was much more courteous when she was doing more elaborate dental work.
Again, there may be subjective bias, but the correlation is a little bit strong.
S
Anyone take part in the Auction in NYC yesterday? Looked on the news like some bargins were had.
Stu @ #7 — Get back to me after familiarizing yourself with logical fallacies.
Engaging such a weak, yet self righteous debater is tedious.