From the Record:
Where will governor find $4B in cuts?
Governor Corzine is preparing a new state budget that will reduce spending to below $30 billion for the first time since 2006.
The budget, which Corzine will present Tuesday to a joint session of the state Legislature in Trenton, will be about $4 billion smaller than the current spending plan.
Why the big reduction: Corzine, a former Wall Street executive, is working within the confines of a steep and widespread decline in state revenues caused in large part by the poor economy. Nearly every state revenue source, including sales and income taxes, is down compared with this time last year. Some sources, such as the realty transfer tax, have been hit extraordinarily hard by the recession. Economists don’t expect things to improve much, if at all, in fiscal 2010. The New Jersey Constitution requires a balanced budget, so Corzine is slashing spending in response.
How it got this bad: Corzine and legislators increased spending from around $28 billion when he took office in 2006 to $33 billion approved in June. They’ve spent more money on education, employee pension liabilities and property tax rebates than prior years and also faced rising debt payments tied to the state’s record $32 billion debt. But few programs were cut to compensate for the increases. Now, with revenue dropping by more than 10 percent, the balanced budget requirement is bringing dramatic cuts and few places to make them.
Wonder if the mistake in the Meadowlands will ever open.
From the Record:
Key Xanadu tenant puts off ’09 opening
Cabela’s — a cornerstone piece of the Xanadu plan since 2004 — has announced that it doesn’t plan to open its doors at the Meadowlands site for another year. That’s about eight months later than the current — though very tentative — August opening date for the $2 billion Xanadu.
Dennis Highby, Cabela’s chief executive officer, told analysts recently in the wake of the public company’s annual financial statement that the outdoors, fishing and hunting retailer will open only one new store in 2009 — in Billings, Mont.
“We now expect our store in East Rutherford, N.J., to open in spring of 2010,” Highby said.
Carl Goldberg, chairman of the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority, said three weeks ago that Xanadu officials needed to make a decision by mid-March: Stick to the August date, move the opening back to November, or possibly wait until next year.
Goldberg had suggested that he wouldn’t necessarily oppose another delay.
“You only get a chance to open once, and you want to do it with as much fanfare and with the most exposure possible,” Goldberg said last month.
first.
yikes.
From Newsday:
NYC foreclosure auction draws bidders, protesters
Hundreds of houses – some with starting bids as low as $1,000 – went to the highest bidders at an auction of foreclosed homes yesterday.
The auction was only the second New York City sale run by Irvine, Calif.-based Real Estate Disposition Corp., or REDC.
“We don’t see as many properties going to foreclosure or being sold in New York City as we do in other parts of the country that have been hit a lot harder,” said company chairman Robert Friedman. “It just seems like other areas were overbuilt more.”
About 1,000 people attended the auction at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center, and more bid online. A fast-talking auctioneer described some homes as fixer-uppers with problems including mold, water damage and vandalism.
…
The sale featured more than 350 condos, single-family houses and duplexes in the New York metropolitan area and Pennsylvania. REDC holds auctions of foreclosed properties around the country; auctions are scheduled later this month in locations including Georgia, Colorado, Puerto Rico, Minnesota and Michigan.
A handful of protesters picketed in front of the Javits Center, chanting “Evictions are a crime! It could be your house next!” “I’m in bankruptcy and hoping to save my home,” said protester Sharon Black, of Baltimore.
Anyone take part in the Auction in NYC yesterday? Looked on the news like some bargins were had.
More consolidation in the drug industry? Good news for NJ or bad?
From MarketWatch:
Merck to buy Schering-Plough for $41.1B in cash and stock
How.. grim..
From the Star Ledger:
Economic downturn also visits the death industry
Ralph Rullis’ showroom at Lincoln Monument Co. is a little yard of headstones, some with epitaphs and requests to “Pray for Us,” strategically located across from the iron gates of historic Rosedale Cemetery in Montclair.
It’s normally a solemn, hushed place. But lately it’s been quieter than usual, with very few customers stopping by.
“In 31 years, this is the quietest,” Rullis, 60, said of the family-owned business whose offices extend to Westfield and East Hanover.
The economic downtown has come to the death industry.
From the APP:
Corzine to spare property tax rebates for lower incomes
A state official who has been briefed on the budget Gov. Jon S. Corzine is preparing says property tax rebates won’t be cut for New Jersey homeowners making less than $50,000 a year.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity not to upstage the governor’s Tuesday budget address, says rebates will be offered on a graduated scale.
But rebates for senior citizens and the disabled won’t be slashed.
Last year, rebates cost the state about $1.7 billion. The checks provide relief against the nation’s highest property taxes, averaging $6,800 a household.
Households earning up to $100,000 averaged $1,115 last year; those earning $100,000 to $150,000 averaged $665. Those earning more than $150,000 got nothing, while renters got $80.
“More consolidation in the drug industry? Good news for NJ or bad?”
I would suspect this will lead to more layoffs.
but, i don’t understand the merger of these 2, seems like there would have been better options out there.
maybe some pharma geek can sound off.
SAS
Corzine is a corrupt,moronic piece of trash, get him out of office.
SAS
“consolidation”
there is that word again.
awfully popular these days.
SAS
From CNBC:
“Investors such as Jon Najarian are hopeful that stocks could soar next week. They say we could see an explosion to the upside after a meeting scheduled for March 12th.
On that date, a House financial services subcommittee plans a hearing on mark-to-market accounting rules, which have been blamed for forcing banks to report billions of dollars in write-downs.
Karen Finerman has long been an advocate of putting these rules on hiatus for a while and “letting the banks breathe.” If that meeting results in the government relaxing mark-to-market rules, optionMonster Jon Najarian thinks the stock market could explode. On Wednesday he told us, “if the government relaxes mark-to-market for 12 to 18 months you could see financials move 100% in a matter of hours.”
So all we have to do is pretend the bad assets don’t exist for a while and the market will recover. This is better than fantasy football.
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/03/snl-on-banking-crisis.html
SNL – Call 1-800-IDEAS
In related news, Congress mulls repealing the law of gravity. Flying cars will soon be a reality.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Mish has some charts this morning.
Case Shiller and CAR Analysis – February 2009 Release.
They show New York but not New Jersey. The Central Valley on the CAR report is where I am located.
Sorry forgot – #12 from Greg Mankiw’s Blog.
From Barry Ritholtz : Forget Confidence – Fix What’s Broken First
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/forget-confidence-fix-whats-broken-first/
They must think we are idiots if they feel we will be more confident when we see fresh paint on a termite-infested house.
“Massachusetts will combine federal stimulus money with an existing state assistance program so that thousands of unemployed residents will be able to get health insurance at a small fraction of the usual cost, state officials are expected to announce today.”
http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2009/03/09/boost_to_health_coverage_planned/
Hope someone is tracking how many jobs are created with the stimulus money. No state will be able to resist spending it on current liabilities or to expand entitlement programs. Afterall, there’s an election to win.
http://www.sacbee.com/1098/story/1418076.html
This unemployment map is for CA but maybe Google maps provides one similar for New Jersey. Very interesting.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/03/03/us/20090303_LEONHARDT.html?hp
Interactive unemployment map
This map sort of works – you put your cursor on each county and get a read out.
I’m more curious were Merck got the cash and common stock. That company has been on life support for years. Depending on how the deal is structured this could significantly impact the employment numbers in the state. Schering is one of the largest employers in central NJ. Glad I wasn’t offered the job at their Berkley Heights site, would have been painful to go through another acquisition.
SAS
My opinion as a pharma guy in the merck schering deal.
All the big pharma companies have depended on “blockbuster” for a large portion of their revenue for the last 2 decades. That model is drying up and now you have a number of pharma companies that are heavily bloated. By consolidating, they can reduce costs due to the ability to increase utilization of existing manufacturing facilities through consolidation. They can also gain access to each others patent portfolio’s which can also reduce costs, increase revenue.
Its unlikely that any of the Big pharma companies could survive the next decade in their pre 2007 bloated forms. This means that they have to downsize and consolidate. Also remember that a lot of drugs on the market are probably over prescribe due to marketing efforts and as people lose income, people are likely to spend less on medication they feel is not critical
ASA
correction
“My opinion as a pharma guy on the merck schering deal.”
I did not mean to imply i was taking part in the deal.
Grim; ref 6. So where are they going, next to the gold in the backyard?
(22) DL – great question – LOL.
Merck to buy Schering-Plough for $41.1 billion
This definitely have big impact in Pharma land.
The State of Office Rents in London’s Financial District
“Where will governor find $4B in cuts?”
Why not raise taxes instead? It will keep people and businesses away from NJ.
Corzine is the best, I hope he’ll get re-elected. 0bama is my hero.
From Bloomberg:
“Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing and mentor of Buffett, measured equities against a decade of profits to smooth out distortions, a method that shows the S&P 500 trading at 13.2 times earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University Professor Robert Shiller. At the bottom of the three worst recessions since 1929, the average ratio fell below 10. To reach that level, the S&P 500 would sink another 27 percent.”
I was checking out Manhattan apartments (mainly UWS) on the weekend. Rents seem to be 10-15% lower than a year ago and in some cases the management company throws in one month free. Speculator-owner apartments may have bigger reductions, but I’m actually a bit surprised.
City has been losing well-paying jobs left and right, and only 10-15% off from peak rents?
New buildings are still being finished all over the city and I assume they will end up as rentals in the next year or so. Will there be more dramatic rent reductions?
kettle,
“opinion as a pharma guy on the merck schering deal”
thought there would be some good biotech companies with an actual pipeline Merck or Schering could of picked up on the cheap, rather than a merger.
I don’t know, I dont follow too closely.
But, I have been working with a few pharma & biotech companies looking to expand overseas.
Legit work… lame, boring, and no under the table perks, but its a clean salary.
SAS
No Doom, Just Gloom
David Levy, Chairman, Jerome Levy Forecasting Center
How long will it take for a recovery?
This process is going to take more than one recession. This is what causes depressions — when you have this kind of severe, long-term imbalance. It will take something more on the order of a decade.
It doesn’t mean a period of continual decline, however. We will have business cycles, and we will have some growth during those cycles. But, as measured by the amount of time, it is similar to the Great Depression.
I don’t think it will be as long as the two lost decades in Japan, but it will be a difficult period. However, it will be, to use a term we coined some years ago, a contained depression, meaning the government efforts to prop up the financial system prevent things from completely breaking down. And the fiscal stimulus will help us along.
“Will there be more dramatic rent reductions?”
yes, but it will take some time.
people tend to forget that in bubbles, the last thing to happen is the price reduction.
SAS
#20 kettle –
“…pharma companies that are heavily bloated.”
Our company interviewed a candidate for a programming position. We were offering $70K, which he was willing to accept even though he was making $83K at his pharma job. Naturally we asked why he was willing to take a pay cut in (at that time) a booming job market. He said that there were 50% more programmers in his department than were really needed, so interesting work was spread thin. (Yes, I realize people do lie at job interviews, but I didn’t get that feeling with this guy.)
sas: in rental markets, waiting may not be worth it. Staying extra 5 month in current apartment (and paying last year’s peak rent) adds up. It is hard to make up that even if you get lower rent by waiting 5 months.
I guess I’ll finally make my move this month and lock in for the “15% off” rent in the 3-block radius (similar apartment). If the rent is 30% lower in 6 months, it would still be a wash.
I also wanted to test the rent re-negotiating (sending polite letter to the management company, terminating the lease but saying that I’d be happy to sign a new lease if the rent is 30% less.). Who knows, they may even comply.
Letting go of your dream price is hard to do
The HomeGain survey finds that 45 percent of homeowners believe their homes should be listed 10 to 20 percent higher than what their Realtors have advised.
Homebuyers aren’t happy either. Just 18 percent think the homes they are looking at are fairly priced, according to the Realtors who are working with them. And despite a couple years of falling prices, more than 60 percent of potential buyers think home prices are still too high.
In fact, 32 percent of potential buyers think homes are overvalued by 10 to 20 percent, the survey found.
Now how’s that for a mismatch. No wonder sales have all but ground to a halt.
Nearly 60 percent of the real estate agents surveyed thought the president’s plans would have no impact on home prices or actually cause home prices to fall.
aaaannnnnnnnnnnd we’re off.
Dow out of the gate and flat on its face.
The end is nigh…..
NAMBLA puts a contract on Cuomo’s head….
http://www.nypost.com/seven/03092009/news/columnists/perv_group_puts_10g_hit_on_andy_158663.htm
Long Island housing market is a tough sell
“shoot him in the face”….is not a ‘killin’ per se when NAMBLA speaks of it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a72q7hFPu5Cs&refer=home
AIG Told U.S. Failure May Cripple Banks, Money Funds
“At AIG itself, failure could have led to dismissals from its workforce of 116,000, the document said. At that level, the staff is unchanged from the end of 2007 before AIG’s bailout. The global credit crunch had led to at least 284,000 jobs cut at the rest of the world’s financial companies, according to Bloomberg data.”
Am I reading this correctly? Are they saying AIG hasn’t let anyone go?
Protest at NY auction of foreclosed homes
Nice video of auction.
NYC foreclosure auction draws bidders, protesters
N.Y. Buyers Get Cheap Homes in Rare Foreclosure Auction
It seems the news has reached to Australia,
Good response for NY mass auction
Debra Scott, a single mother, attended the auction hoping to buy a dream home that she said she would not have been otherwise been able to afford. Scott was eyeing a $790,0000 USD home in Westchester, New York that was listed for $199,0000 USD after foreclosure by REDC.
‘The economy is such that I couldn’t afford to buy a house with the regular market, the retail. So, I came here because I would like a better life for my children and we’re looking for a house to buy that could accommodate us and that I could afford,’ said Scott.
On the other hand Bob Albanese along with his wife Louise was attending the auction to school themselves on how such sales work because they are keen on picking up one or several homes as an investment in future such auctions.
‘The way I’m seeing it in most markets here prices are back to where they were in 2003. So you know I don’t think this happens again in our lifetime, that we have prices like this, so it’s a great time to buy,’ said Albanese.
While Frank, who didn’t give his last name, also attended the auction looking for a house to buy as an investment. His bid was successful. He bought a home in Long Island, New York for $130,000 USD. He said the value price of the property was $400,000 USD and that the starting bid had been just $69,000 USD.
Foreclosed Homes Auctioned at Javits
USHomeAuction.com says the homes are discounted by a minimum of 70 percent from their previous valued price.
For example, a 2,500 square foot house in Jamaica, Queens valued at $555,000 has a starting bid of $69,000 and sold at Sunday’s auction for $165,000!!!!
In Mount Vernon, N.Y., a home valued at $340,000 sold for $135,000.
In Newburgh, a home valued at $125,000 sold for $60,000.
“They’re not the nicest properties, but people can get a great bargain, especially if you’re handy,” said Rick Weinberg of USHomeAuction.com.
In January, New York City foreclosures soared 64 percent from December. February foreclosure numbers are expected later this week.
“In fact, 32 percent of potential buyers think homes are overvalued by 10 to 20 percent, the survey found.”
Only 32%? Are these folks paying attention?
Anecdata for the weekend. Went to 4 open houses here in NE Monmouth. I would say foot traffic was higher than usual (it was a warm, pleasant day). List prices were down maybe 5-10% from peak. Agents are getting silly, one lady had a handout summary on the 8K tax credit. The listing price was 649K, how many folks shopping for a 649k house are going to be able to use the 8K tax that credit that is capped at 150K for couples? Seemed odd.
One agent actually helped my wife change our baby while I looked around. She must have been really hurting for a sale.
One realtor told us there was an outstanding offer on the house we were viewing, but it had a contingency that the potential buyer sell first. The owners went and looked at the place and would not accept the offer, believing that it was way overpriced and would never sell.
If you are a renter you are godlike to these realtors now. What a change from two years ago.
Of the four houses we visited, not one realtor had a Benz, Lexus, or BMW. Two Nissans, a PT Cruiser, and and Explorer. My how times have changed.
This foreclosure auction is similar to those open to the public car auctions.
I read there were women praying during the bidding process, 27 year old electricians buying 270K houses in cash and scores of confused people.
The real deals are to be had elsewhere, this was just for the NY Post crowd.
Gotta love the “it adds insult to injury” poor saps outside. So what are we to go? Raze the home and declare a historical site? Dopes.
Home gold-buying parties becoming a fad
Kettle,
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36070535
Frank [26],
I was going to say the same thing; just raise taxes. People here will just continue to pay them, it’s a no-brainer. House prices have barely moved as we are the last area of the country to sustain and hold. As I’ve been told, it’s very competitive here and we’d need nuclear fallout to occur before prices decline on par with the rest of the nation.
Incomes and wealth are still holding strong here and probably won’t change much more from where they are now. Imagine if there was a mutual fund that invested in the overall economic dynamics of Northern NJ. At the very least, your investment would be at “break even” right now.
grim (1)-
They should open Xanadu by hiring a demolition contractor to blow it up.
#49 gary:Incomes and wealth are still holding strong here and probably won’t change much more from where they are now.
Gary? Surely you are joking about that comment, income and wealth are still holding stong here, based on what? And they wont change from where they are now? Based on what?
The “street” is finished, and pharma and telecom in NJ are declining rapidly.
The legal profession? Eveyone I know in any of the big firms is hurting, business is hurting acrosss the board.
slow today.
That auction is not relevant to NJ towns discussed here. I mean, of course you can buy a $12,000 house near Syracuse (or a $10,000 house in Detroit or Camden). More media spin for the sheep out there…
Incomes and wealth are still holding strong here and probably won’t change much more from where they are now. Imagine if there was a mutual fund that invested in the overall economic dynamics of Northern NJ. At the very least, your investment would be at “break even” right now.
Guy I work with, friend of mine, asked me to help him find a new place.
His landlord stopped by yesterday and told him that he is filing for bankruptcy and going to lose both of his homes.
My friend has a month to month, he’ll get tossed out in bankruptcy.
Landlord was in IT/Software sales, lived high on the hog during the RE bubble years.
HELOC’ed out everything, not a penny of equity.
He’s got 2 kids still in high school.
He purchased the house my friend leases for $400,000 in 2005.
He said he was going to sell it, until his Realtor told him it would sell in the low 3’s, at best.
He’s got his eye on a house a block over. Builder purchased it as a teardown since the lot could be subdivided.
Builder is now bleeding cash, is looking for a tenant just to stop the hemorrhage.
“Will he cut or will he borrow”
It sounds lika a Clash song.
Will he cut or will he borrow
Will he mortgage our tomorrows
Will he run us into the ground
Or will he pass a budget that is sound
So, c’mon and let me know
Should I stay here
Or should I go
It’s always tax, tax, tax
Fiscal oversight is lax
3b [51],
The weekend before this one, two couples we know went looking at some houses with realtors thinking that prices have finally become attractive. They came back shocked and appalled, still, a year later after the last time they looked. Can you or anyone here explain why that is so?
gary (58)-
We have explained it ad nauseum.
Only a small fraction of houses that are listed are actually for sale. A delusional seller trolling for a sucker is nothing but noise, statistically speaking.
gary (58)-
Your friends should either develop better resources for finding homes that are actually for sale or decide not to torture themselves.
oops, hit return too soon.
It’s always tax, tax, tax
(We are in charge, so don’t talk back)
Fiscal oversight is always so lax
(We are in charge, so don’t talk back)
Uggggh, phone. This “masterpiece” will have to wait.
Clotpoll,
Good enough, I’ll ask the question no longer but based on what you’re saying, I find it amazing that anything sells at all.
Californian’s Getting All Uppity
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2009/03/a-sign-of-things-to-come.html
Gary,
We ar looking at some homes in NC, south-ish shore area. People are looking for 2 1/2 times what they paid in 1999. As one couple said, they need the money to pay for their kids’ college expenses.
are, even
From Reuters:
Lights go down on Circuit City stores
More than 30 shoppers were lined up in front of a Circuit City store here before it opened at 11 a.m. But most of the showroom was empty, with only a few shelves of merchandise remaining.
Circuit City’s going-out-of-business sales that began Jan. 17 were expected to last up to eight weeks. But last week, liquidators said the process would be completed early, closing the doors of the once-vaunted consumer electronics chain’s more than 500 stores for the last time on Sunday.
…
Some of the company’s 567 stores had already closed, according to a statement from Great American Group, one of the liquidators.
Dennis Patel, who said he was the first employee hired at the North Bergen store when it opened nine years ago, watched as customers hovered over the paltry selection.
“It’s a sad thing for us employees,” he said, attributing the chain’s failure to the economy and competition.
…
Omaida Camacho of Fairview, New Jersey, said she came to Circuit City mark her 25-year-old son’s last day on the job.
“I feel it deep inside,” she said. “I see people going for the low prices, but they are not thinking of the people who are losing their jobs.”
I suppose the financial “needs” of current homeowners trum economic realities. If so, one suspects that may homes will go unsold for a LONG time.
may=many, at least in my alternative typing world
gary (62)-
Look at the stats. Virtually nothing is selling…and what sells, is selling at 2003 price levels.
Shore (67)-
The “Personal Needs Method” is one of many ways of pricing a home. Unfortunately, it is not a method employed by competent Realtors.
I have said the exact words above as a way of ending listing appointments that are headed nowhere.
Grim,
Property tax rebates are a money-wasting sham.
The gubmint of New Jersey is a money-wasting sham.
I left the TV on CNBC today and coming up next is the Roubinator…to speak on an “L”-shaped recovery. I’m going to watch, just to see if he says the words “hockey stick”.
I also want to check his new designer haircut and see if his tie looks like a tie or a hangman’s noose.
Good times.
gary: See the article I posted earlier which tracked Sellers and Buyers opinion in poll.
Just to give anecdotal evidence on what is coming down the line. On my street, this weekend there are 8 homes for sale (4 open houses), while in 2005 there were none in probably whole month of march. Based on that I can guarantee that come memorial day, the inventory is going to break records.
Crash Course: Chapter 15 – Bubbles by Chris Martenson
“Based on that I can guarantee that come memorial day, the inventory is going to break records.”
Does this mean that Grim will finally expand the upper bound of his Sales/Inventory Overlay chart?
Soon to be comp killer
35 Marshall St
W. Caldwell
MLS# 2660371
Bought 8/2005 for $602,000
Now on market (Freddie Mac owned) for $369,000
#53,
“Guy I work with, friend of mine”
Foreclose, foreclose and kick him out.
Because of as& hole like him, millions of people overpaid for their homes.
Foreclose now!!!!!!
Clot,
Even if things are down to 2003 levels, back in 2001/02 I concluded that the market had way overshot true value. I suspect there is a fair bit of decline before there is any real value.
I get a kick out of people who say, “look how much I am getting off onth is purchase (House, business suit, it does not matter). If the orighina price was jacked up so high that even a huge reductionin price still results in an overpriced product, where is the benefit of buying at even 70% off?
#78
What are you talking about? He isn’t the owner, he is the renter.
#58 gary: Delusion on the part of the sellers? All it takes is just one.
In my Blue Ribbon town lots of nice houses coming on every day. The problem way over priced, why even bother making an offer?
Why so over priced? Who knows, denial, delusion, whatever.
My own unscientific opinion is the following. When I look at the realtor provided pictures, I can see that many of these have all been significantly upgraded over the last few years.
The granite kitchens, added family rooms whirpool tubs, and on and on.
Why are they selling now, job transfer, divorce, can no longer afford it?
Who knows, my own belief is that more than a few of these people can no longer afford these houses, and are asking prices that if they get, them will bail them out so to speak.
Well it is not going to happen.
Go to the njmls and look under River Edge, three houses on the market in particular all recently upgraded from the exact same original houses built in the 1940’s.
The three are listed at 649K, 659, and 669k, are within a 2 blocks of each other.
What kind of pricing strategy is that on the part of the owners/realtors? It makes no sense,
“Foreclosed Homes Auctioned at Javits”
Most of the people buying at the auction are bunch of dummies, these properties were available before the auction and if you add the 5% action fee, they have overpaid big time without getting a good look at the property. Dumb, dumb, dumb.
#80,
Sorry, foreclose on the owner, I got no beef with your friend.
“Foreclose, foreclose and kick him out.
Because of as& hole like him, millions of people overpaid for their homes.
Foreclose now!!!!!!”
Frank, Frank, Frank. C’mon, Frank. DOn’t you know the government MUST do everything in its power to keep such people in their homes? Is that not the message coming from Congress and the stinking B.O. Administration?
Re the foreclosure auction at Javits:
Are these really “great deals” like the article indicates. I don’t understand why the house would go for so much less than it would on the market. Is it simply the stigma of buying a foreclosed property? The fact that I saw this auction seems to be all over the media would make me believe the buyer’s probably didn’t come out as well as they think they did. Wouldn’t the winner’s curse be more prevalent in this type of auction?
“What are you talking about? He isn’t the owner, he is the renter.”
No, Grim. He is the victim of forces beyond his control and the USG must bankrupt itself to sae him and others like him who aer victims, VICTIMS, of a worldwide economic decline.
grim,
the land lord wont write your friend a new 2 year lease in the next month? I believe that the banks must honor existing rental leases per NJ law
i see a new market segment….. Offer people who are about to be foreclosed on an upfront cash payment in exchange for a 2 year rental lease on their home at a slightly below market rate.
The owner gets cash in their pocket right before losing the house, and the renter now has a great lease for 2 years that must be honored by the bank.
Jamil, my Dad needed a some limbs cut off a tree in the back. It was monstrous, and leaned toward the garage.
He called a couple of cutters. As they showed up, he’d point to a beautiful chestnut in the front. “What would you charge to cut down that tree?”
After he got the lowest bid on a whole tree, he took the guy around the back and asked, “How much for only a limb?”
Grim, CLot
Have any troubled home owners in the wings who want to rent their house for an upfront fee?
““More consolidation in the drug industry? Good news for NJ or bad?””
I would guess there will be huge layoffs in finance, marketing, personnel, logistics, IT, and even research. The manufacturing facilities may go largely untouched, but they could be sent overseas in any event, even without the acquisition. I wouldn’t want to be a junior AR account or employeer relations representative at SP right now. I thinkthe Red Queen is getting ready to shout, “Off with their heads!”
The owner gets cash in their pocket right before losing the house, and the renter now has a great lease for 2 years that must be honored by the bank.
Willingly sign up to lease a home from a slumlord?
You really think the banks will stay current on maintenance?
You’ll be fixing your own plumbing, out of your own pocket. Good luck getting anyone to fix anything in that scenario.
There is no deal here.
“This is better than fantasy football.”
Starting to resemble Fantasy Island.
grim says:
March 9, 2009 at 10:14 am
The owner gets cash in their pocket right before losing the house, and the renter now has a great lease for 2 years that must be honored by the bank.
Willingly sign up to lease a home from a slumlord?
You really think the banks will stay current on maintenance?
You’ll be fixing your own plumbing, out of your own pocket. Good luck getting anyone to fix anything in that scenario.
There is no deal here.
This can be addresses by a clause in a lease – my lease said that any repair above 50$ (total parts and labor) is paid by landlord.
If bank doesn’t pay – FINE, just reduce the rent check!!! With rents well over 1000$ in NJ – most repairs can be easilly done this way. – you figure 2 years lease give you a viggle room of at least 20K in repairs.
More important – your rent can not be significantly below comparable properties at the time of signing a lease…
So if you are going that route – make sure to collect data showing that your rent is fair and not unjustifiebly low.
Grim,
Thats why i am not in RE. However i have done ok before in that situation. The landlord refused to maintain, so i legally withheld rent (deposited into a separate savings account). The lease ended, they never did the repairs, so i essentially got a substantial discount on my rent
And I also believe that paying owner a lump sum in return for lower rent after FK constitutes a fradulent activity…
Do you really want ot expose yourself to that for few grand?
Al,
why is that fraud? I have gotten reduced rent before by paying X additional months upfront.
If bank doesn’t pay – FINE, just reduce the rent check!!! With rents well over 1000$ in NJ – most repairs can be easilly done this way. – you figure 2 years lease give you a viggle room of at least 20K in repairs.
Huh? He recommended prepaying rent in an attempt to secure a sub market rent.
Aside from it stinking like fraudulent conveyance, it is one hell of a risky move.
Cleveland Commercial Loan Delinquencies Signal More (Update1)
Email | Print | A A A
By Brian Louis
March 9 (Bloomberg) — Cleveland and Detroit lead the U.S. in commercial mortgage delinquencies, a sign the housing crisis that brought down Wall Street is spreading beyond the residential market.
Office, retail, apartment and industrial properties with mortgage payments 60 days late or more rose to 3.93 percent as of March in the Cleveland area and to 3.75 percent in the Detroit area, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The North American commercial property delinquency rate is 1.1 percent, according to Standard & Poor’s.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=as25TfJvijsM&refer=home
grim,
I am not suggesting fraudulent transactions, just exploring an idea.
(37) re: Long Island real estate
Does anyone know an area of L.I. that is not overcrowded, overpriced and actually has nice homes that could become affordable as the crash continues?
NJ has its share of problems but quality of life (for us) is great. That said we may need to go where our jobs take us and we want to start doing some research before that happens. Thanks
“I am not suggesting fraudulent transactions”
Ket,
Clearly, you are unqualified for work in finance or politics.
grim (97)-
Nothing to be gained in that scenario, and it doesn’t pass my smell test for fraud.
Out by Montauk is nice.
vodka (99)-
Why not? It’s only a problem if you get caught.
“I am not suggesting fraudulent transactions”
50 trillion lost globally so far. how low do we go?
Plunging assets cost $50,000bn
Falls in the value of financial assets worldwide might have reached more than $50,000bn, equivalent to a year’s global economic output, the Asian Development Bank will warn on Monday.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3f9a2bd8-0c0e-11de-b87d-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Re 100:
Where on LI? West (Nassau)? East (Suffolk)?
clot shore,
i tend to have a little problem. I actually have something of a conscience.
Yes, I know, am trying to fix that little problem…..
Kettle,
Screw or be screwed especially in times like these.
zieba,
true, and thanks for the previous link
Nassau or Western Suffolk, thanks
Schools are an issue
barry has trouble without the teleprompter
(39) Cindy,
Re: AIG
I know of three AIG employees (in two different states)who are still employed at their jobs. They are friends of friends. Work is very slow/quiet for them. They are basically in limbo–However, luckily still getting their paychecks.
Every house I see on Trulia (Bucks Co) that has sale history attached shows at least a doubling between 1998-2001 sale and current asking. I wonder if the current owner’s income doubled during those years?
Not going to find many under-crowded areas around there…you’ll have to go a little further east for that. Some of these areas are the Islips (not CI), Brightwaters, etc. Even a bit further east if desired – Bayport/Bluepoint, Sayville, Oakdale. All these are south shore towns – these are less populated than north or central.
Who’s the hot brunette on CNBC in that last segment?
In a time where so much is being made about our first black president, Ann
Coulter made the following observation in her column of 2/25/2009:
” But as long as the nation is obsessed with historic milestones, is no one
going to remark on what a great country it is where a mentally retarded
woman can become speaker of the house?”
This bubble sucks.
From the Record:
St. Mary’s declares bankruptcy
The last remaining hospital in the city of Passaic, St. Mary’s Hospital, declared bankruptcy this morning.
Despite a $4 million infusion from the state last year, St. Mary’s was never been able to reverse the losses of Passaic Beth Israel Medical Center after acquiring it during bankruptcy two years ago. It moved up to the more modern PBI campus on Boulevard, but was unable to sell its Pennington Avenue property and use the cash from that sale.
…
It has about 1,300 employees, including nearly 600 nurses who are member of JNESO, the professional health care union.
St. Mary’s has $43.9 million in outstanding bonds for which the state is the guarantor, under a special deal worked out when it bought Passaic Beth Israel. That means the state has agreed to back the bonds, subject to an appropriation from the Legislature.
The hospital lost $750,000 on its operations in January, and $972,000 in December. At the end of January it had 1½ days cash on hand. Admissions were down in every category, compared to last year.
Painhrtz says:
March 9, 2009 at 7:40 am
I’m more curious were Merck got the cash and common stock. That company has been on life support for years.
HUH?
Ouch..
St. Mary’s has $43.9 million in outstanding bonds for which the state is the guarantor…That means the state has agreed to back the bonds, subject to an appropriation from the Legislature.
#118
I thought healthcare was recession proof.
/off sarcasm.
grim says:
March 9, 2009 at 11:17 am
Ouch..
St. Mary’s has $43.9 million in outstanding bonds for which the state is the guarantor…That means the state has agreed to back the bonds, subject to an appropriation from the Legislature.
Come on grim, it is “only” 50 millions. Chump Change…. Sometimes I really wonder, how far away from Zimbabwe we really are?
@113
DL,
I went to an open house in Philly this weekend that had 17% appreciation yoy for 10 years. Effing ridiculous!
I asked the Realtor if he knew what the historical avg appreciation rate in Center City Philadelphia was, he didn’t know so I told him the answer: 3.5%.
You should have seen the look on is face – so I asked him to justify the list price and he said: “Well, you can use a blanket trend like that because it didn’t work on an even plane. There was “white flight” to the ‘burbs in the 60’s that caused the city to crash”. I told him the 3.5% figure was from 1985 to 2000 and politely excused myself.
People are still clueless here and swear Philly is different some how.
St. Mary’s no problem . why not just make it a Mexican holding? Consulate?
vodka (105)-
Money heaven must be crowded these days.
Not every area of economy is hurting. For example:
– gun and ammo sales are through the roof
– advertising revenue and ratings at CNBC and Fox News are significantly up
– tax revenue from high-ranking democrats is up
They can thank O.
“People are still clueless here and swear Philly is different some how.”
Not ALL of Philly, but THIS house for sure.
Anybody care to weigh in on Blackberry Storm vs Curve ? Storm touch screen keyboard blows!
Westfield Comp Killer
149 SUMMIT COURT
Sold 09/2006
SP $620,000
LD: 08/20/2008
OLP $599,000
LP: $474,900
UCD: 2/27/2009
SP: $420,000
The house is in very good condition. This is usually when someone chimes in with, “it must be on a bad street”. So let me save time by saying it is on the same street it was on 2 years ago when it sold for $200,000 more. The taxable value for this house is $849,110. I don’t know how they come to that value, but I do see houses in the same town that have been sitting there are priced higher than their taxable value.
2nd (123)-
Philly is different. It manages to combine the financial problems of megabombs like Detroit and Cleveland with the racism of Boston and the cultural sophistication of Bayonne.
Le Bec Fin is a nice restaurant, though.
130: Classic.
Can’t say much more about a city that boos Santa Claus.
“and the cultural sophistication of Bayonne.”
Clot,
So you are saying it has the “whole package,” then?
Secondary Market says:
You didn’t factor in the World Series Price Bump in Philly.
Merck buys Schering? Great, so when this is all said and done, we’ll have 1 bank, 1 automotive company, 1 retailer, and 1 drug company. Lemme guess, Merck will be too big to fail as well?
clot 130,
you really are a talented and insightful writer in. you always know how to get right to the dirty underbelly of the matter
No, Ben. We will have the corporate version of the IWW, “One big company.”
Giventhe state of the economy, calling Fedco a “Wobbly” may make sense.
Shore (134)-
A gift-wrapped package, especially for you. What’s that I hear ticking?
Filthadelphia. We create Camdenites.
(2ndary, I’m just teasing you. I have a pal who can rag on Philly for 3-4 hours if you cut him loose.)
Ray (135)-
I think there is still a bounty on Mitch Williams in South Philly.
vodka (137)-
But, the question is: when you get to the dirty underbelly, do you start jabbing at it with a dull, filthy steak knife?
Chart graphic now up on CNBC:
“When Nothing Works”
#130 clot
Perfect description.
Clot 130
You ever read David Foster Wallace (RIP)? I could see him writing that.
Perfect, would look great as a marketing slogan on gophila.com.
#118,
“It has about 1,300 employees, including nearly 600 nurses who are member of JNESO, the professional health care union.”
They should have no problem getting new jobs..
“U.S. healthcare system pinched by nursing shortage”
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5270VC20090308
Clot, I lived in Phila from 1994-1996..I used to call it the city of botherly shove (not love)
“No, Ben. We will have the corporate version of the IWW, “One big company.””
I know, everyone’s stock will be in one company. General Electric-Merck-Exxon Mobile-Ford-JP Morgan Chase-of America.
Clot,
Are you kidding? Phillies fans, vindictive? How do you boo Mike Schmidt?
I wish Terell Owens could somehow have resigned with the Eagles. I just can’t get enough of non-sports drama in sports. Do you think the kaballah water will help speed A-Rod’s recovery?
wow, clot i’m starting to take it personal. lol
like most places, philly has it’s problems but i still really enjoy living here. again, i may live in a bubble because i live in center city proper but when i watch the news and hear about the killings etc, i couldn’t even locate those neighborhoods on a map.
randyj says:
March 9, 2009 at 11:40 am
Anybody care to weigh in on Blackberry Storm vs Curve ? Storm touch screen keyboard blows!
the new update OS for the storm is out today. download it – its a totally different device with it.
[130] clot
I lived for years in both cities (recently 6 years in Philly) and I can say that racism in Philly is much worse than in Boston. Bostonians are much less uptight about race than they used to be, if for no other reason that minorities have been avoiding Boston for years due to its bad reputation and high cost.
Also, poorer minority enclaves in the greater Boston area are more spread out and tend to be well removed from middle and upper income areas. This isn’t true in Philly where upscale areas in or near CC abut the ‘hood, which encircles CC like a moat of decay and crime (the Northeast is really like its own suburb, and thinks of itself that way).
Consequently, Bostonians don’t have the same view of minorities that Philadelphians have because they almost never see them. Out of sight, out of mind.
That, and the old-timers that had issues have largely died off or moved away, and were replaced by yuppies, thus diluting the racist population.
Is this a cheap way of saying that there is less racism in Boston? Yep.
Clotpoll says:
March 9, 2009 at 11:56 am
Ray (135)-
I think there is still a bounty on Mitch Williams in South Philly.
He actually has in own show on Comcast Sports Net and is a pregame analyst for Phils games.
I think the city forgave him ever since he was ejected from his Daughter’s Middle School Basketball game.
how are loans being paid:
http://www.dealbreaker.com/images/entries/Statshot-Paying-Mortgage.jpg
A nice article on US tent cities. wonder when the US media might consider reporting on this?
The credit crunch tent city has returned to haunt America.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1159677/Pictured-The-credit-crunch-tent-city-returned-haunt-America.html
[39] cindy
“Am I reading this correctly? Are they saying AIG hasn’t let anyone go?”
It’s now a branch of the government. Since when does government let people go?
RayC [129]
Westfield comp killer action
Those 2006 buyers shouldn’t be too upset. The ~35% loss (factoring in commissions and fees) on that Summit Court home investment is about the same loss they would have taken had they invested in the S&P 500 at that time.
Seneca,
holding the money in a savings account at 1% would have actually provided a positive return on (and return of) capital!
http://blogs.laweekly.com/fish/2009/03/pull_and_pray.php
http://tinyurl.com/c4zte5
Here is the updated Case Shiller actual and predicted chart, now includes an inflation adjusted price.
The orange line is yoy change in NY metro Case Shiller using the scale on right.
The blue and black lines are NY Metro and National 10 City Case Shiller values, they coincide with values on left scale of chart. These lines are assuming a 48% decline peak to bottom in jan 2012.
The new brown line is the inflation adjusted value of NY Metro CS as of Jan 1985 estimate to be 60. CPI is bls all city non seasonally adjusted monthly actual CPI. For predicted CPI, i used .10% per month or 1.20% per year.
All dotted lines are predicted values.
Notes: the predicted values seem a little too aggressive and steep as at least some of the government programs may start to stabilize or at least delay the pace of price correction, although i think 48% correction is still reasonable just a question of how fast we get there. Also, i am using cpi to adjust the new data but probably should be using cpi + 1% to capture accurate long term price appreciation. any comments or suggestions are appreciated.
“Go to the njmls and look under River Edge, three houses on the market in particular all recently upgraded from the exact same original houses built in the 1940’s.
The three are listed at 649K, 659, and 669k, are within a 2 blocks of each other.
What kind of pricing strategy is that on the part of the owners/realtors? It makes no sense,”
Kind of puzzled why you think that makes no sense. For the sellers (collectively) it makes all the sense in the world. If they can collude to keep market prices up – or more accurately the perception that those homes are priced at market – they’re better off.
Assuming they don’t have tight deadlines to sell. that is. And judging on how many homes are actually selling, that number seems to be low.
implode (145)-
I hope I end up better than he did.
Although, I guess in the end, we’re all dead.
Ray (149)-
Kaballah water? Is that what they call it when Madonna pi$$es on you?
nice showing by Roubini on CNBC just now. (Sorry, Bloomberg not in HD)
he was talking about the L-shaped curve … CNBC eyes popped when he said that.
i hear more and more fear in the voices of CNBC (esp re: inflation)
#155 – tents
mrs. & I saw a tent in the woodline across from the petco/bedbath, on the same side of the street as the ballpark, in bridgewater a few nights ago. ironically just down from the retirement-homes coming soon sign, we laughed at that & wished we had the camera. it didn’t surprise either of us though to see a tent as make-shift shelters are rather normal from that area down to the old somerville dump. we paused wondering why this one was rather close to curb, didn’t want to speculate too long if new to the neighborhood.
#161 meter: It was an example of 3 houses all witinh 2 blocks of each other, away from all the other houses that are coming on the market.
And the many that have been rotting on the market for months.
As far as sellers colluding to maintian high prices, I do not buy it. At the end of the day assuming these people have to sell they would or should if they could price accordingly.
There is no way in my mind that the 3 sellers all got together and decided to price within 10k of each other.
In an environment like this it is every homseller for himself.
yikes (164)-
Did you hear the talking turd, Dennis Kneale, slagging Roubini before he came on?
The whole basis of Kneale’s argument was that an ultra-bear like Roubini will be late in his call of the eventual turnaround.
grim
8 in mod
Cue music…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5zFsy9VIdM
Ray C [129],
The assessed value of that Summit Court house is about $210k, so the recent sale is moving in the right direction. The real kicker is not the $420k sale price, but the $14k property tax bill. $14K for a $420k property. Sweet.
Veto,
your projections seem a little optimistic. We will overshoot the median value, there is just to much downward momentum.
The 90’s bubble overshot on the down trend almost as much as it overshot. yet your graph shows no overshoot.
The median value for the composite 10 is around 85 and about 75 for the Northeast region (as defined by CS) for the period of 1987 to present. I would suggest that any forward projections would need to show an overshoot under these values.
I see you used the NY metro CS data, but that is approximately the same as the composite 10 data for long term trends, so the median value of 85 is still a good ball park figure. This correction will drop below 85 unless obama can find a skittle $hitting unicorn to turn the market around
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SZZ3Yd9WmfI/AAAAAAAAA-I/Rk3Ay3yRrjY/s1600-h/NY.PNG
“The whole basis of Kneale’s argument was that an ultra-bear like Roubini will be late in his call of the eventual turnaround.”
Clot [167],
He’s a dcik. How was Kneale’s call regarding the current implosion?
China “testing” BO?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090309/pl_nm/us_usa_china_navy
Hubba(173):
“Two of the Chinese vessels stopped directly in front of the U.S. ship and dropped pieces of wood in its path.”
Sounds more like a fraternity prank than anything else.
March 9, 2009 at 11:05 am
Every house I see on Trulia (Bucks Co) that has sale history attached shows at least a doubling between 1998-2001 sale and current asking. I wonder if the current owner’s income doubled during those years?
is it to personal to ask what towns? i saw none of that in upper bucks (wash cross and newtown) during our search.
i definitely came across some clueless realtors though who refused to budge on price. we simply moved along.
“This correction will drop below 85 unless obama can find a skittle $hitting unicorn to turn the market around”
Kettle, (171) that scenario scares me but i guess you have a valid point as usual, i’ll extend to 2015 and we can call it “worst case”, which is the new normal anyway.
Clotpoll says:
March 9, 2009 at 11:44 am
2nd (123)-
Philly is different. It manages to combine the financial problems of megabombs like Detroit and Cleveland with the racism of Boston and the cultural sophistication of Bayonne.
he here all week (thankfully)
Yikes 164,
Inflation isnt even close yet.
<i.Yes, the Fed’s balance sheet and the balance sheet of the federal government are expanding at record rates. But these reflationary efforts should be seen as a partial antidote, not a panacea, to the deflationary effects brought on from the unprecedented contraction in the largest balance sheet on the planet: The $55 trillion US household balance sheet. Based on what house prices and equity valuation have been doing this quarter, we are likely in for a total loss of household net worth approximating $7 trillion this quarter alone, which would bring the cumulative decline in consumer wealth to $20 trillion. This wealth loss exceeds the combined expansion of the Fed’s and government balance sheet by a factor of ten. That should put the reflation-deflation debate into perspective.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SbQr27-zieI/AAAAAAAAFts/YnTDHI_xe1E/s1600-h/FIG.png
note: see Global Economic Trend Analysis blog for full article
Yikes; Doylestown and Newtown. Busy at the moment but can send the links later.
the only thing Philly has going for it over the bedroom community that is NJ is half the taxes.
and its proximity to shitty AC, Wash DC and that hellhole Baltimore.
that being said, so far so good in bucks county.
been to NYC more times in the last year than i have philly.
Heavy legal land layoffs today:
http://abovethelaw.com/2009/03/white_and_case_400_layoffs.php
http://abovethelaw.com/2009/03/nationwide_layoff_watch_morgan.php
Clotpoll says:
March 9, 2009 at 12:52 pm
yikes (164)-
Did you hear the talking turd, Dennis Kneale, slagging Roubini before he came on?
The whole basis of Kneale’s argument was that an ultra-bear like Roubini will be late in his call of the eventual turnaround.
i hardly pay attention to the names. is Kneale the guy with the glasses? He’s a fool. or the old guy who is the host? or the indian-looking guy?
I do love Rebecca or whatever her name is (girl who was on the Apprentice). So hot
veto 160
this is all meant to be constructive criticism….
you used CPI+ 1%, but given that we are currently deflating and likely to continue doing so for a few more years wouldnt you want to use CPI – 1%
awesome news on inflation!
so in two years, just when everybody thinks we’ll escape this situation … wham!
inflation will rip a limb off like a shark attack.
wonder what that will do to the 50-inch samsung i bought for 1700 this week (on sale from 2000!)
south jersey is a detriment to philly. toothless inbreeds. unless of course you live in Haddonfield and pay 12k a year in taxes.
grim unmod 181
yikes 183:
Thats pretty much my take on the matter. i expect the following sometime around 2012-2014 per my personal best guess.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6mWzI5anxI
found a video of the current bear market:
http://tinyurl.com/afy2mx
kettle1 [158]
BELIEVE ME, I know. Sometimes, indecision ($ parked in savings) is the best possible decision.
DON’T MAKE ME LAUGH.
If you had anything resembling a conscience, you’d stop taking people’s money by posting every negative thing you read. If you had a conscience, you wouldn’t be jumping with glee at every little statistic that shows a slowing economy. If you had a conscience, you’d symphathize with investors who have taken a beating.
You have no conscience. You’re cruel and evil.
kettle1 says:
March 9, 2009 at 10:49 am
clot shore,
i tend to have a little problem. I actually have something of a conscience.
Yes, I know, am trying to fix that little problem…..
Re 101
You have no conscience. You’re cruel and evil.
are you my mother-inlaw?
So much fun to view this old video from 2006.
8/28/2006-Peter Schiff Predicts The US Economic Collapse With Unbelievable Accuracy
thanks kettle, i appreciate the input
the brown line is the avg price on jan 1986 adjusted every month for inflation and then predicting ongoing inflation of .10% per month. The new brown line is attempting to show where we should be based on long term trends if there was no bubble.
And im not using cpi +1%, i just used cpi but i was wondering if it should be cpi + 1% to mimic long term trend?
Here it is going to 80 by 2015, looks pretty ominous, showing a cumulative 60% drop.
http://tinyurl.com/aesrle
my opinion is this is too bearish but im open to all sorts of possibilities after witnessing the unthinkable already.
Here is another important news article:
“Police arrest four go-go dancers in Sussex County”
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/03/police_arrest_four_gogo_dancer.html
Anyone here know the dude with the hollow points?
Former cather for the Phils once said the boo birds were so bad that when the Phils weren’t in town they used to go out to Philly airport and boo bad landings.
Anybody care to weigh in on Blackberry Storm vs Curve ? Storm touch screen keyboard blows!
I have the 8320 Curve; keyboard is usable, much better then using numerical digits anyway.
I’m looking to upgrade to the Bold once BlackBerry allows other vendors to sell it (ain’t no way in hell I’m moving to AT&T).
-Richie
Hubba 193
Why would anyone pay 0.2 ounces of shiny to have sex with a 39 or 44 year old stripper?
I bet by year end you’ll be able to get 2 twenty year olds and an eight ball with 0.5 ounces.
Kettle, “given that we are currently deflating and likely to continue doing so for a few more years wouldnt you want to use CPI – 1%”
another good point, considering our conservative assumption of .10% per month, or 1.2% per year, it should already be accurately depicting the long term inflation trend so i’ll have to think more about this one.
And if we start making predictions about cpi, i guess we’d have to predict 15% monthly cpi numbers around 2015 to make it realistic…
#182 kettle: Whether there is any correlation between real estate and the stock market, is open to arguement on either side,a s to whether it is or is not and how much.
That being said however, even from just a psychological point, and so much of house buying is based on psychology/emotions, why would any one want to pay any where near so many current asking prices, when the stock markets are back down to 96/97 levels?
12 years or so of gains wiped out and yet real estate prices in our area will remain immune?
I don’t think so.
Yikes: here’s a Newtown gem that sold for $143k in 1999. Current asking: $384k and its been reduced from orginal asking.
http://www.trulia.com/property/1067886000-77-Cloverlee-Ln-Newtown-PA-18940
#196 make
Sussex County is not filled with the best and brightest. That’s a county where they cap pizza delivery guys for sport.
Re: Storm vs. Curve – The Storm is barely usable for email and calendar – it takes about 10 times longer to compose emails, it is more like an iPhone, but the Storm does has great multimedia including iTunes and has an 8GB micro-sd card and works on both the Verizon EV-DO CDMA networks and the GSM/GPRS networks, one of the few phones to do so, it has a SIM card for roaming, and has a better speaker and a solid metal case. Camera has a too long delay but takes ok pics.
Did anyone see the NBC thing on the Marijuana industry in California. Apparently, entire counties have become entirely dependent upon growing and selling marijuana and it’s the only thing keeping their local economy alive. I would hate to see how bad their real estate declines would be without having a cash crop like weed supporting their incomes temporarily.
3b 198
Whether there is any correlation between real estate and the stock market, is open to arguement on either side,a s to whether it is or is not and how much.
are you referring to the reversion to mean concept?
if so there is a good argument for this behavior in housing. In the followng chart, you can see a trend in place since the late 50’s
http://static.10gen.com/businessinsider/~~/f?id=49a02ccc796c7afa009b4708&maxX=620&maxY=474
Fun with info graphics:
http://www.creditloan.com/infographics/the-history-of-us-government-corporate-bailouts/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gLN3QoN-q8
#203 kettle:are you referring to the reversion to mean concept?
if so there is a good argument for this behavior in housing. In the followng chart, you can see a trend in place since the late 50’s
Yes, and I too think that will be the likely outcome.
Clotpoll
Re: Madonna
Once again, I believe you have hit the nail on the head. I think she was able to charge more in the 80s though.
yikes (177)-
Be sure to tip your waitress…try the fish, it’s really good…
vodka (178)-
I take back my previous statement. Money heaven is full. Now, all the losses go to money hell.
DL says:
March 9, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Yikes: here’s a Newtown gem that sold for $143k in 1999. Current asking: $384k and its been reduced from orginal asking.
http://www.trulia.com/property/1067886000-77-Cloverlee-Ln-Newtown-PA-18940
ha! we went to that open house. realtor knows it is overpriced. sellers are reluctant to lower (think it started at a laughable 429k).
we walked out and i told the wife i would pay more than 325k for it (good condition, no basement)
yikes [177]
Next time you post like that – hit this button.
http://www.instantrimshot.com
Home for $14K in NJ. To buy, not rent.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Newark_NJ_07107_1107131508
What? No additional photos?
183…you are bragging about a TV you bought?
Squeal like a pig Clotpoll.
Looks like AIG has found a new business model – Extortion.
American International Group Inc. appealed for its fourth U.S. rescue by telling regulators the company’s collapse could cripple money-market funds, force European banks to raise capital, cause competing life insurers to fail and wipe out the taxpayers’ stake in the firm.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a72q7hFPu5Cs
sx (215)-
Corzine’s got his fist so far up me, I can’t even squeak.
Vic (216)-
I’m waiting for AIG to claim the sun won’t rise if we cut them off.
*oink* taxes.
210…nice enough place except for the narrow room with the brick obstacle in the middle.
CLot,
I think you said AIG would be a 1 trillion $ boondoggle. Its starting to look like closer to 2 trillion.
Heck the bailout is now at about 9.7 trillion. We are easily going to surpass GDP this year!
If you can figure this link out, you can probably call the bottom too..
http://www.regiftable.com/RegiftingRobinPopUp.html
vodka (221)-
Who’d have thunk a -1 trill call would be an undershoot?
Can someone please tell me again why hunter/gatherer will not be the hot new area for jobs growth in the US?
What a mockery this car would make of so-called technological progress over the last 130 years. That’s how long we have had the Internal Combustion Engine and for almost as long we have had little alternative. Looks like some serious money is going into this air powered car.
Quote:
GENEVA: Consumers have grown used to the idea of cars powered with alternative fuels, from hydrogen to electricity. But running a car on air?
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/03/04/business/EU-Geneva-Auto-Show-Running-On-Air.php
French firm MDI says it can be done, and used the Geneva Auto Show to display a bubble-shaped 3-wheeler it plans to start rolling out later this year.
The AirPod can travel up to 137 miles (220 kilometers) on a single 46-gallon (175-liter) tank of compressed air, producing zero emissions on the road, MDI spokesman Sebastien Braud said Wednesday.
Drivers can recharge their air supply in eight hours by plugging the car into electricity outlets, or by going to special ‘air stations’ where the process takes only 2 minutes.
The AirPod will be trialed by airlines Air France and KLM at their bases in Paris and Amsterdam, starting in May, said Braud. Another trial will begin in the southern French city of Nice in December.
Ben says:
March 9, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Did anyone see the NBC thing on the Marijuana industry in California. Apparently, entire counties have become entirely dependent upon growing and selling marijuana and it’s the only thing keeping their local economy alive. I would hate to see how bad their real estate declines would be without having a cash crop like weed supporting their incomes temporarily.
Since we are talking drugs. Yesterday I was watching MSN special on Heroin… Apparently NJ is leading the nation in number of users and purity of druigs.
According to reporters huge problem with high school abuse and fact that everybody trying to keep it under wraps so the real estate prices and schools stay desirable…
It is really that bad in NJ?
Looks like I’ll be unemployed by the end of March.
The Storm actually works quite well if you have patience to get used to it for a couple weeks. Older people usually can’t get the hang of it (not age discrimination, just the truth).
Most foreclosures pack into a few counties
WASHINGTON — More than half of the nation’s foreclosures last year took place in 35 counties, a sign that the financial crisis devastating the national economy may have begun with collapsing home loans in only a few corners of the country.
The worst-hit counties are home to about 20% of U.S. households, but accounted for just over 50% of the nation’s foreclosure actions last year, driving most of the national increase. And even among those places, a few stand out: Eight counties in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada were the source of about a quarter of the nation’s foreclosures last year.
Bank of England Ignites Quantitative Inflation
Economic Shock and Awe as Interest Rates are cut to 0.5% coupled with £75 Billion conjured out of thin air by Mervyn King Waving his “Central Bank Magic Wand”. The government through what should be more accurately termed as “Quantitative Inflation” than “Quantative Easing” sanctioned £75 billion in the initial print run which will have a multiplier effect through fractional reserve banking and leverage of anywhere from between X10 to X20 the amount depending on how it filters through the economy, therefore £75 billion increase in the money supply implies the supply of credit should jump by anywhere between £750 billion to £1.5 trillion, but more probably in the region of X10 at £750 billion over the next few months, with expectations of several more doses of “Quantitative Inflation” during 2009 that seeks to devalue the British Pound towards parity to the U.S. Dollar.
The governments initial print run is for £150 billion in two halves is expected to be followed again by another two runs of £150 billion each as the May 2010 election is still more than 12 months away, which is the primary focus for the Brown Government. This will eventually lead to much higher inflation and interest rates than most expect at this time. Therefore investors and savers need to start to look at gearing themselves towards this development i.e.
1. Falling UK government bond prices as the amount of debt the government issues continues to mushroom.
2. Continuing sterling bear market which targets parity to the U.S. Dollar as a consequence of Quantative easing and government debt.
3. Rising commodity prices as the crackpot policy of Quantative easing is copied around the world which devalues ALL currencies.
Getting famous baby!
This made the front page of Yahoo.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20090309/us_time/08599188354600
“It rises out of the tidal murk of the Meadowlands – the polluted northern–New Jersey wetlands on which the sports complex of the same name was built some 33 years ago – like a garish species from a monster movie. What is that swamp thing? It’s a mishmash of big-box structures covered in aqua, blue and white tiles, with a little mustard yellow and brown thrown in to finish off the 1970s-nightmare look.”
safeashouses says:
March 9, 2009 at 4:13 pm
Looks like I’ll be unemployed by the end of March.
______________________________________
I’ll take you out for a beer. Unemployment is not so bad.
The U.S. Financial System Is Effectively Insolvent
There is a grave risk of a global L-shaped depression.
By Nouriel Roubini
With economic activity contracting in 2009’s first quarter at the same rate as in 2008’s fourth quarter, a nasty U-shaped recession could turn into a more severe L-shaped near-depression (or stag-deflation). The scale and speed of synchronized global economic contraction is really unprecedented (at least since the Great Depression), with a free fall of GDP, income, consumption, industrial production, employment, exports, imports, residential investment and, more ominously, capital expenditures around the world. And now many emerging-market economies are on the verge of a fully fledged financial crisis, starting with emerging Europe.
Fiscal and monetary stimulus is becoming more aggressive in the U.S. and China, and less so in the euro zone and Japan, where policymakers are frozen and behind the curve. But such stimulus is unlikely to lead to a sustained economic recovery. Monetary easing–even unorthodox–is like pushing on a string when (1) the problems of the economy are of insolvency/credit rather than just illiquidity; (2) there is a global glut of capacity (housing, autos and consumer durables and massive excess capacity, because of years of overinvestment by China, Asia and other emerging markets), while strapped firms and households don’t react to lower interest rates, as it takes years to work out this glut; (3) deflation keeps real policy rates high and rising while nominal policy rates are close to zero; and (4) high yield spreads are still 2,000 basis points relative to safe Treasuries in spite of zero policy rates
Fiscal policy in the U.S. and China also has its limits. Of the $800 billion of the U.S. fiscal stimulus, only $200 billion will be spent in 2009, with most of it being backloaded to 2010 and later. And of this $200 billion, half is tax cuts that will be mostly saved rather than spent, as households are worried about jobs and paying their credit card and mortgage bills. (Of last year’s $100 billion tax cut, only 30% was spent and the rest saved.)
Thus, given the collapse of five out of six components of aggregate demand (consumption, residential investment, capital expenditure in the corporate sector, business inventories and exports), the stimulus from government spending will be puny this year.
veto– so basically you are predicting a hard crash of 20-25% over the next 18 months or so with flattening thereafter. This seems reasonable to me, esp the swift down move part. Problem I see is what stops the decline once it gets that kind of momentum.
226…is what that bad?
#231 All Hype
Sounds great.
I had a Glengary Glenross conversation today.
#226
I have only been at this unemployment gig for 1 week. My plan was to just decompress for a few weeks but I am already getting a bit restless. I try not to focus on the negative – kind of hard if you listen excessively to the news. Luckily(?) I have friends who are also unemployed or only working part time so at least I have some company, if I want it, during the day. I wish you the best – as I wish everyone who is losing their job.
now to good news
Enzyme behind cancer spread found
What a mockery this car would make of so-called technological progress over the last 130 years. That’s how long we have had the Internal Combustion Engine and for almost as long we have had little alternative. Looks like some serious money is going into this air powered car.
Well.
Air is free, right? So they’ve invented a perpetual motion machine. Right?
Who cares that the electricity needed to run the compressor comes from burning coal somewhere.
Everyone knows that electricity comes from the magic electricity fairy that hides in the wall behind an outlet. Plug in hybrids don’t use gas, so they don’t pollute either.
I’m green, I’m doing my part!
Apologies if already posted. What a f*cking nightmare:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20090309/us_time/08599188354600
[226] safeashouses
Looks like the next round of Cooper’s are on me.
“Everyone knows that electricity comes from the magic electricity fairy that hides in the wall behind an outlet. Plug in hybrids don’t use gas, so they don’t pollute either.”
Actually the whole thing is done by Oompa-Loompas …..
#236 House Whine,
This will be my second tour. Don’t watch Oprah or CNBC, to depressing
#240 comrade,
Thanks,
i’ll have to send you an email with the details of the chat I had.
You won’t believe it.
Wow,
Some of you guys are being let go. So the mortars are hitting closer to home. This is a bummer as this is a bright group.
Best to all..
bairen 226 I’m sorry…if I can help in anyway, let me know.
all-hype… hey…you do have a part time job :) what a brutal day yesterday…
on a happier note… I really helped a frighteningly sick 2 yr old! :) It was a butt puckering experience at times though. *Those* moments keeping doing this job.
sl
wow… need a second cup of coffee….Those moments are what’s keeping me doing this job…
gawd I need coffee!
and on an even happier note, I found a coffee grinder that can grind cacoa beans finely enough to make great super-dark chocolate!!!!!!
sl
Mikey, all lathered up again. Vodka, looks like you were shy on your -2 trill AIG call, just like I was off at -1 trill. Mikey says the red ink will run to 5 trill.
Good times. Got ammo?:
The End of the World . . . As We Knew It
“For the last four and a half years, I have been writing, speaking and warning about the consequences of the housing bubble, commercial real estate bubble and the toxic paper that fueled both bubbles. I took a lot of heat for my comments.
I was not shy when I said we were headed for the worst Recession since the Depression. I was not shy when I then began referring to the coming tsunami as a Decession . . . and then in January of 2008, I took the next step and called it what it is . . . a Depression.
Deep VIOLENT Depression – I cannot emphasize this enough . . . and I have already taken heat for using the “V” word. But today I am prepared to kick it up a notch, and urge you to prepare for what is unfolding. Did we think we would have seen the extent of the violence during the Civil War, when we killed each other on our own land? Did we ever think we would have seen the violence that came out of the Depression? Hitler came to power when people lost hope in the government and financial markets. Can it happen again? We said it could never happen then, so now that we are in far worse shape than 1930, why couldn’t something much worse come out of this crisis?
100,000 Protesters – Does the government have any idea how angry people are, how betrayed they feel? It will be years before our economy recovers from the devastation wreaked by bankers. In the meantime, the possibility of something awful happening is very real. We’re one swing of a garda baton, one cracked head, away from chaos. – Gene Kerrigan
This statement could have been written about the United States, England, France, China or just about any country in the world. But for now, it comes straight from The Irish Independent. You didn’t see it on CNN, CNBC or even in any of the American papers. You had better prepare for it, because it will shut down banks, supermarkets and the very fabric of what we are. If you have not built up a food pantry, stored cash and gold, and armed yourself, you might want to consider doing it now.
White House Vegetable Garden – Tom Vilsack, our Secretary of Agriculture, proposed just that. He wants to call it “The People’s Garden,” and he wants to establish community gardens at each of the department’s offices around the world. Why? It’s probably not because things are going well. It’s actually in response to a grassroots movement that has been rumbling about the need for us to grow our own food! By the way, vegetable seed sales at Burpee, Gurneys, Park Seed, etc. have been skyrocketing.
How To Avert Disaster – That was the title of a subhead in an article appearing in The Economist. The title was . . . The Bill That Could Break Up Europe. And the article dealt with ways of “stopping the rot” and “the meltdown of the EU.” Let me note, there were no solutions and there was no mention of going after the men that created the problems . . . and clawing back the trillions of dollars they have stolen.
CIA Bracing for Global Economic Fallout – The CIA’s primary concern now is the security of the United States in terms of the global economic crisis and its geopolitical implications. Dennis Blair, Obama’s “intelligence czar,” told his staff that concerns about the recession were now at the top of his annual worldwide threat assessment to Congress. Leon Panetta, our comical CIA directors, just announced that the CIA was now producing a secret daily bulletin, called the Economic Intelligence Brief.
Hitler Only Won 2.6% of the Vote – In 1929 Hitler was still considered a joke, and he only won 2.6% of the vote and 12 seats in the Reichstag. But just a year later, as the Depression took on steam, Hitler’s Nazi Party won 107 seats in the Reichstag. At that point Hitler’s only promises were to restore prosperity and jobs . . . and to purge the system of profiteers. I am NOT analogizing Obama to Hitler, but I am analogizing the promises of prosperity without paying the consequences for our past action or planning for the future.
Frank and Moose – After the previous paragraph, I think we need this quote. “There are names floating around, and they’re bad. Frank was one of them. Frank! Moose was another one.” – Michelle Obama on her veto of the names her daughters suggested for the hypothetical family dog.
Bankruptcy for Vallejo, Phoenix, Dallas, Philadelphia – Vallejo, California has already submitted to bankruptcy. Phoenix is facing a $250M deficit. Dallas $100M. Philadelphia $300M. And New York could be facing a $900M-1.2T deficit next year. Ask yourself this question. If they are facing these deficits now, how bad does it get as tax receipts plunge due to the crushing unemployment numbers? And then ask what happens when receipts plunge, but services to the unemployed in the form of police, fire, medical, food, schools, etc. . . . skyrocket out of control? Instead of going to the doctor, the unemployed/uninsured will go to Emergency Rooms. Instead of going to the grocery store, the unemployed will go to food banks and soup kitchens . . . or worse, they will loot grocery stores. And that, my dear friends, is just the beginning of something too dark to write about.
Banks Rationing Withdrawals – It happened last week in the Ukraine, when banks not only limited withdrawals, but closed their doors altogether. But it can’t happen here, right? Wrong.
$2 Trillion to AIG – We’ve already given them $180 billion with a big B. We received an 80% stake in the company for the first $85B, but we got zippity-doo-da for the next $95B. Moreover, we have no idea what they did with the money, but I hear Goldman Sachs got billions of it from AIG, as well as JP Morgan and other banks that seem to understand the rules on sucking cash out of the system and pumping to guys like King Henry, Lord Blankfein and Prince Jamie. But the real kicker is what AIG is not telling us. As the financial crisis deepens, so does the money AIG needs to pay out. My low estimate is $2T. Unfortunately, if we continue to allow things to melt down, AIG will be on the hook for more than $5T. Strike that. WE, the taxpayers, will be on the hook for $5 trillion . . . or more.
Chinese and Saudi Ties – Last week Chas Freeman was appointed to head the National Intelligence Council. This is a guy that not only has some very strange ties to the Chinese and Saudi’s, but he still has family members and close friends on the payrolls of these countries. If not directly, indirectly. But really now, what’s the difference. Here’s a guy that worked for companies owned by the People’s Republic of China that was investing in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Even though Republicans asked for an investigation into Freeman’s ties to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, China and Iran . . . the Obama Administration ignored the warning signals. As if this was not enough, Freeman has been a supporter of how Hamas has handled things, while denouncing Israel for protecting herself. If you think Obama to the Rescue . . . you’d better start looking at the people he is surrounding himself with.
Obama’s Making It Worse – Maria Bartiromo interviewed Jim Rogers, and when she asked, “What do you think of the government’s response to the economic crisis?” he said . . . “Terrible. They’re making it worse. It’s pretty embarrassing for President Obama, who doesn’t seem to have a clue what’s going on – which would make sense from his background.”
Jim classically continued . . . “And he had hired people who are part of the problem. Geithner was head of the New York Fed, which was supposedly in charge of Wall Street and the banks more than anybody else. And as you remember, Summers helped bail out Long Term Capital Management years ago. These are people who think the solution si to save their friends on Wall street rather than to save 300 million Americans.
I will close with this quote from Jim Rogers . . . “We’re going to have social unrest in much of the world. America won’t be immune.”
238: Grim
I know that your post was at least somewhat tongue in cheek, but as someone working in the power-generation industry let me tell you that fossil fuel fired power plants are going the way of the dodo. Not tomorrow or entrirely for several decades of course, but basically it’s now impossible to get the permits/approvals to build any new ones.
Nuke, combined cycle, hydro, solar boilers, and to a lesser extent wind is all that’s being built now. Coal stations are (slowly) being phased out for the most part.
There will still be many many large (900MW per unit) stations running for decades, but if they haven’t already done so these will have flue-gas scrubbers installed. Does nothing for CO2 but the other nasty stuff is largely eliminated.
Even though I just bought a Ferrari (cheap old one) I hope that the internal combustion engine fades into the history books, as long as we’re still allowed to occasionally take the choice old ones out to play!
#245 sl,
Thanks,
At least i have an interesting story for the next GTG.
Re: AIG
A very good friend of mine was let go from AIG on December 1. She was in the real estate division for ten years. There were about a dozen people from her division let go the same day.
“Since we are talking drugs. Yesterday I was watching MSN special on Heroin… Apparently NJ is leading the nation in number of users and purity of druigs.
According to reporters huge problem with high school abuse and fact that everybody trying to keep it under wraps so the real estate prices and schools stay desirable…
It is really that bad in NJ?”
I have to say, the people I know that were always smoking weed and maybe snorting some coke have all discovered heroin in the past 2 years. I think it is a lot more prominent than it was 10 years ago. The purity thing doesn’t surprise me. We have the docs that bring in the shipments from overseas nearby so we literally receive all that smack before it gets cut up.
am I the only one who watches Austin Powers now and is no longer blown away when he asks for 100 billion dollars? When I first saw it, it was kinda funny. Now, it sounds like what we do on a weekly basis.
The future of Xanadu
Luxury resort closes
http://www.luxist.com/2009/03/05/tamarack-resort-shuts-down/
Re 251, Ben
Several years ago, I lived in Hunterdon Co, near the Warren Co. line. My doc told me that while the poor HS in WC had problems with pot, the wealthier HCHS had a herion issues. Seems like when the rich kids use it is a social problem, but a crime for the poor kids. My SP neighbor confirmed this.
The wailing list hit the mark again.
Can I nominate the “Too Big to Fail Tee” for the Blog tee-shirt.
http://site.despair.com/kleptocracy/
Hugs not Drugs.
Re#238 – Grim, the frogs are big on nuke power, + the Brits are working on a solar + nat gas home charging system for the compressor, no coal needed.
Clot – that Mike Morgan screed was one of the biggest doom and gloom pieces ive read from him in quite some time.
i swear everytime i read Morgan my instant thoughts:
– what if i lose my job this month?
– check bank account to see how long we can float
– check safe to make sure i still have 5k cash at home in the event of a bank run
(speaking of bank runs – what if you’ve got a mortgage payment due and there’s a bank run? are you expected to pay it?)
– ask myself if i need another weapon and more bullets
I filled out my firearms ID application today. My wife resisted vehemently, however, after a lengthy dissertation on history she capitulated. I just hope we can hold this ship together for 3 months until its approved.
For the record, I have no delusions about how bad it can get. I just hope I am not preparing too late.
“I filled out my firearms ID application today. My wife resisted vehemently”
you remember a few years ago that women psychologist got hacked up by a meat cleaver in her office by one of her x-patients??
boy, i bet she sure she wished she had a nice little firearm at that time to hit center mass on that nutjob whom hacked her to kiddles & bits.
remind your wife of that story.
SAS
“Civil Unrest in America?”
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=ALO20090309&articleId=12619
“Officials Seek Way to Fill a Gas Tax Gap”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/08/us/08car.html?_r=2&ref=us
james – definitely not too late.
heck, i’m still hoping that somehow, this country gets through this mess unscathed. i know that’s unlikely and it’s going to get worse before it gets better … but while i hope, i’ll plan for the worst
oh, tiny anecdote:
at dinner with friends saturday, and one person said to me, ‘you know, two years ago you were saying how bad things were gonna get and we kept telling you, ‘no way, everything’s fine.’ you were totally right about everything.’
i said, ‘you know that website i’ve been telling you about?
i was speaking, of course, about NJre report
grim 263 in mod
boards sure are silent tonight.
SAS
Ben says:
March 9, 2009 at 6:18 pm
I have to say, the people I know that were always smoking weed and maybe snorting some coke have all discovered heroin in the past 2 years. I think it is a lot more prominent than it was 10 years ago. The purity thing doesn’t surprise me. We have the docs that bring in the shipments from overseas nearby so we literally receive all that smack before it gets cut up.
Ben: Can’t you blame Bush/Cheney for allowing general lawlessness in Afghanistan again?
I think when the civil unrest begins in NJ, Corzine should temporarily roll back the cigarette tax. If I have to turn the clock back to Vietnam time, I want to smoke while I shoot. It calms me.
SAS
sorry, i will try to make more noise. am busy building a new secret bunker in the evenings….
tootles, back to to lining the walls with 1/4 inch steel plate
lmao confused. Hopefully it wont get to that. Never seems to be a dull moment in history does it. You just never know what you lived through until its in the rearview mirror.
Ben (253)-
Maybe NJ should change its motto to “Cheap Gas and Good Smack”.
To me, that’s much catchier than “Perfect Together”. That’s so Jon & Carla…
I just got a piece in the mail today from my local police.
Seems my neighbor wants to get a gun and listed me as a character reference.
Best laugh I’ve had in ages. Until I started to wonder what kind of person lists me as a character reference…
sx (258)-
Guns, not hugs.
“Ben: Can’t you blame Bush/Cheney for allowing general lawlessness in Afghanistan again?”
You can blame Bush and Cheney for a lot more than that.
Was just watching “Street Fight” re Cory Booker’s mayoral election. Watching Jim McGreevey shouting “Sharpe James is the Real Deal!” was a real hoot. It’s unfortunate this economic crisis is preventing what few decent, not-yet corrupt politicians we have from trying to effect change.
[274] clot
That obviously was not me – but you better stay away from the guy, he is clearly out of his mind…
Does anyone know where I can find a chart plotting ARM resets still yet to come? I recall a link awhile back and couldn’t find it in the archives. Thanks.
No one, it seems, is running Treasury:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/09/AR2009030902807_pf.html
“and on an even happier note, I found a coffee grinder that can grind cacoa beans finely enough to make great super-dark chocolate!!!!!!”
Please, SL, do tell.
“Sounds more like a fraternity prank than anything else.”
The real question is whether this was a couple of cowboys out “defending the Motherland” or were they directed by Beijing to harass the ship? It is surprising that the capt allowed his ship to come to a complete stop while surrounded. A ship at dead stop is very vulnerable.
Hubba [173],
If they were really testing, maybe they’d run their own naval surveillance vessel 75 miles off Catalina.
Grim, clock’s an hour off.
Payroll taxes will increase, state workers must take 12 unpaid days off and forgo raises, and property tax rebates will shrink or disappear in the bad-news budget Gov. Jon S. Corzine will propose today.
http://www.courierpostonline.com/article/20090310/NEWS01/903100353
“The school board will discuss the 2009-10 district budget and also hear a report from its Facilities Advisory Committee at its work session tonight.
Both topics have been heavily affected by the economy — fueling the district to cut the projected budget rather than suggest raising the tax levy, and to hold off on a bond referendum to address aging facilities.
This year’s $171 million budget carries a tax levy of $3.19 per $100 of assessed value. A resident with a home valued at the $140,000 township average pays $4,460.41 in school taxes.
The board is examining ways to trim up to $10 million from the current budget to allow for increases in contractual obligations including salaries, and in areas such as transportation, health benefits and out-of-district placements.
The district implemented a budget spending freeze earlier this school year and hopes to reserve $4 million to $5 million from the current budget to support next year’s operations.”
http://www.courierpostonline.com/article/20090310/NEWS01/903100352
But salaries will continue to rise!