From the Record:
Towns to lose more than $32M in state aid, Corzine says
The Corzine administration was the bearer of bad news again today when it told towns they will lose more than $32 million in state aid next year.
Towns whose residents make less money and have a heavier tax burden are slightly cushioned by the blow. Municipalities with higher incomes and lower taxes will be hurt the most.
Governor Corzine said he made awards “in a manner that’s consistent with need” and using a “formula that is reflective of the property tax burdens and the wealth” of towns. The Corzine administration created a sliding scale for aid per town based on the average income residents earn and taxes they pay. That means towns with high taxes and residents with less money — such as Passaic and Paterson — will not lose any aid.
And municipalities with higher incomes that pay lower taxes will get 5 percent less than last year. For example, in 2008 Franklin Lakes Borough received more than $2 million in aid and this year they will get $101,000 less.
“This is new ground, I don’t recall there being municipal funding that was based on that kind of formula,” said Bill Dressel, executive director of the League of Municipalities
Some big losers are:
Hoboken -$604,890
Morris Township -$178,529
Westfield -$167,283
Livingston -$160,878
Summit -$156,020
Holmdel -$135,345
Montclair -$127,669
Millburn -$126,871
Bernards -$120,511
Colts Neck -$112,740
Montville -$112,548
Franklin Lakes -$101,845
Ridgewood -$101,639
First?
Well, that should make fundraising for Christie that much easier.
Big losers are:
Hoboken -$604,890
Morris Township -$178,529
Westfield -$167,283
Livingston -$160,878
Summit -$156,020
Holmdel -$135,345
Montclair -$127,669
Millburn -$126,871
Bernards -$120,511
Montville -$112,548
Franklin Lakes -$101,845
Ridgewood -$101,639
Colts Neck -$112,740
Fourth. Damn. not even a medal.
Fourth. Damn. not even a medal.
Those were a mix of % and $ loss. Towns like JC and Newark lost huge sums of aid in comparison. In fact, the total aid lost by those “wealthy” towns combined is still smaller than the aid cuts to JC and Newark.
Holmdel -$135,345 Ha!
Its obvious Madoff was going to plead guilty.
you think that wanna take that instution to courts? call witness?
and the media spins it like “look, he will spend time in this jail cell”…blah…blah…
total failure & spin by media.
they should be getting to the nitty gritty of the situation at hand.
but hark… no. They are not.
cause they are part of the game, to persuade and massage you: The dope.
SAS
Why were the wealthy town getting state aid to begin with? It would be like the US giving money to Luxembourg.
ok, sorry for the OT Grim…
back to RE.
yeah, its going down, you will lose your money, bottom is years away, you bought during bubble, you were played like a fiddle.
See you next spring.
:)
SAS
I was a little busier earlier today and didn’t have the time to comment on China’s threat. This is the kind of thing that makes a rock ribbed American patriot highly pissed off. ARE YOU DAMN COMMIES TRYING TO THREATEN US??
Tell you what, we need to let those damn commies know what side their damn bread is buttered on. THE ARE NO OTHER INVESTMENTS IN THE WORLD THOSE COMMIES CAN INVEST IN THAT’S BETTER THAN THE DAMN GREENBACK. Everyone wants them, that’s why EVERY attempt to move away from the USD regime has failed. A couple of those damn terrorist countries in the middle east tried to move away and look what the hell happened to them. WE SHOULD LET THESE COMMIES KNOW THAT WE WILL NOT STAND FOR THEIR THREATS. Where in the hell do they get off trying to tell us to be responsible.
I’m of the mind of supporting Taiwan’s freedom from tyranny right now and if they keep pushing, it might be time for regime change in China.
I really think Stephen Colbert is re101.
dumb NFL players have no clue about the real estate market (Denver)
With offseason workouts scheduled next week at Dove Valley and uncertainty about whether Jay Cutler will show up, the quarterback on Thursday put his multi-million dollar house in Parker up for sale.
Cutler’s 7,516-square-foot house on nearly 1-1/2 acres is advertised for sale at $2 million, according to a real estate listing. Cutler bought the house in 2006 for $1.34 million.
200kplus says:
March 13, 2009 at 11:08 am
Face it, people have to start losing their jobs! That is only when they realize that they can’t afford their houses. Idiots. I want to see more people lose their jobs.
you’re a prick, buddy
Lost,
They had a clear shot at Madoff each day. The guy strolled through the UES daily!
Zieba
How far Upper East Side was he strolling around? I’m pretty sure he wasn’t far enough north. Either way, he’s still my pick. I don’t wish it on him, but I’m sure there are many out there that do. And many of those probably have the means to make it happen.
number seveenteenn……hi. Fiveeee
love it! all is well. gr8 dep is my bff.
Worried abt American Apparel
http://www.hipsterrunoff.com/2009/03/worried-abt-american-apparel.html
Do yall know if strippers accept Monopoly Money? [via the economic crisis]
http://www.hipsterrunoff.com/2009/03/do-yall-know-if-strippers-accept-monopoly-money-via-the-economic-crisis.html
#17 in alt bro
um, I don’t think they mean not-emo…
The new No Depression
A fresh crop of young Minnesota musicians is playing back-to-basics music that has more in common with the Great Depression than the Next Big Thing.
http://www.startribune.com/entertainment/music/40807207.html?elr=KArksD:aDyaEP:kD:aUnOiP3UiacyKUnciaec8O7EyUr
“Once upon a time, however, murder ballads and their kin — like hip-hop today — were the equivalent of the daily newspaper.”
make money says:
March 13, 2009 at 11:54 am
Mike,
I spoke to a guy last night to hinted that he had manufactured some of the fake statements that madoof sent him and instead of 250K he had with him he’s trying to get the whole 500K from US.
i’ll bite … who’s “US”
who is going to get money back from the madoff fraud?
Talk about kicking Hoboken when its down …..
Clotpoll says:
March 13, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Is it me, or does everything 200K post read like utter nonsense?
it certainly is not just you.
that guy’s a fraud, like reinvestor, frank, and the rest of the born losers.
the good ol’ days of hoboken are going to make a comeback…if you know what i mean
that town really got overvalued and oversold! if you really take a look at the majority of the buildings, its in shambles and needs major overhauling…it takes money…all of which have vanished in this goldilocks economy of ours!!! i love this place!!
“but hark… no.”
Hark? I think that is the first time I have ever seen that word used when it was not followed by “herald.”
“Either way, he’s still my pick.”
First he will be making some very close friends who will “protect” him. Well, for a price.
Death by roo roo, maybe.
There have been similar financial issues in the local governments over here in the UK.
David,
Perhaps, then, we can blame our history of municipal mismanagement on our British heritage?
last friday, i was here predicting dow would rose 650 pts in a few sessions to make up for 650K job losses.
unfortunately, the post was deleted in a few minutes since it doesn’t fit with gloom and doom mode.
with today’s close at 7223, it is almost right.
now look at what your beloved SRS. all the paper gain disappered in a few day. i would get heart attack this weekend if i owned this crap:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SRS#chart4:symbol=srs;range=1m;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
#19 – There have been rumors of American Apparel’s impending demise for about 2 years now. There’s also been a lot of stories about just how insane mgmt there is, shady goings on and other hanky panky.
I think Business Week (maybe it was Fast Company) had a long article on the place.
So, I’m not surprised to hear the rumors again and their ads make me feel dirty.
What happened to the muzzle?
Who knew?”
http://www.cleancarwashla.org/
Gator,
What are you proposing, lol
Which hotel are the Gator’s enjoying — stayong at anyway?
staying, even
Gator,
Do you use windows mobile or palm OS?
bi (29)-
Cashed in @ $104, pal. Started averaging back in today.
My definition of “crap” is a bank CEO who gets free money, lends it out at any old rate, then crows that his bank is “profitable”.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/credit/more/rise.html
I post here “The Secret History of Credit Cards.” Going forward, they must become less important as “revolving” credit lines.
A 1978 Supreme Court case essentially did away with usury laws. Citigroup moved to South Dakota because they agreed to raise their rates to bring new jobs to the state. The new law said a CC company (national) could spread the interest rate from their home state all over – no problem.
In 1984, Andrew Kahr enters the picture with the great idea of expanding credit limits and lowering minimum payments to make even more money.
Many today abuse credit cards. For a while there, you just took out a HELOC and paid them off – no more.
If we are to return to a sustainable, comfortable living level – we will need to see house prices decline and credit card use seriously curtailed.
People are beginning to save money. If they would also stop using credit cards – we might get somewhere.
According to the article, between 1980-1990, the number of CCs nearly doubled, credit card spending increased more than 5 fold and the average credit card balance rose from $518 to $2700.
37#,
i know most folks here always claim they cashed out a few days ago before it dropped. i doubt that except
one guy called HEHEHE who was honest enough even posted his/her brokerage satements.
it is always the case the people out of game are paying people in the game. this happens in sports, market and politics. people not in the market are ultimate losers.
>My definition of “crap” is a bank CEO who gets free money, lends it out at any old rate, then crows that his bank is “profitable”.
Out for lunch with the Chairman of RBC today, sitting at the next table, Chairman of Citi, Richard Parsons, working on a hot blond for 4 hours. I guess Citi never works.
bi says:
March 13, 2009 at 9:19 pm
last friday, i was here predicting dow would rose 650 pts in a few sessions to make up for 650K job losses.
unfortunately, the post was deleted in a few minutes since it doesn’t fit with gloom and doom mode.
with today’s close at 7223, it is almost right.
now look at what your beloved SRS. all the paper gain disappered in a few day. i would get heart attack this weekend if i owned this crap:
get a life you clueless rube
bi – your cluelessness gives off the impression that you’re the type of guy who doesn’t wash his hands after leaving the bathroom.
the market is down 50 % in like 18 months.
are you really excited about 650+?
what’s your call for next week? and when you’re wrong AGAIN, then what?
42, why don’t just ignore my call?
with the market rallied 10% in a week, i would think it will consolidate a while.
the funny thing about some folks on this board is they called for 300 oil when it was near 150 and called dow 3500 when it was 6500. they thought the market was always moving one direction.
with the market down over 50%, i see opportunities.
Interesting Police State Rules. NJ & PA are similar.
Under Tennessee state law, bringing more than two cartons of cigarettes into the state without paying Tennessee taxes is a “Class B” misdemeanor, carrying punishment of up to six months in jail and/or a $500 fine. Bringing 25 or more cartons is a “Class E” felony, with minimum penalty of one year in prison and a maximum of six years plus a fine of up to $3,000.
In addition, the specific Tennessee state statute dealing with untaxed cigarettes provides that vehicles used to transport more than two cartons “are considered contraband and are subject to seizure,” says a Department of Revenue statement.
40#, what happened to your srs?
I’m not going to stand for your attacks on bi here.
Do you know what your problem is? It’s wringing your damn hands and moaning woe is me. Look, no one is gonna to give you a damn bib and a fresh powder just because you’re frozen like a deer in the face of what you think are on- rushing headlights. Markets are made to invest in, dammit and some of us intend to do just that. Look, close your eyes if you have to, but leave the rest of us alone so we can make some danm money
yikes says:
March 13, 2009 at 10:35 pm
bi – your cluelessness gives off the impression that you’re the type of guy who doesn’t wash his hands after leaving the bathroom.
the market is down 50 % in like 18 months.
are you really excited about 650+?
what’s your call for next week? and when you’re wrong AGAIN, then what
bi (39)-
Go back. I called my shot when I got out.
bi (44)-
“with the market down over 50%, i see opportunities.”
I see dead people.
bi-
I’ve held SRS and SKF and taken fast 40%-50% paper losses more than once. Funny thing is, every time they rocketed back into the black.
Were I down big on either, it wouldn’t bother me. I’ve been there before, and I would readily admit it now.
The guy who never admits being down on SRS or SKF is the lying sack of poo.
Also, guys who only pop up here when things are looking rosy for their positions, only to slink back under a rock when things turn ugly, also qualify as bags of poo.
bi-
Please share some of these areas of opportunity you’re seeing.
I need some contrarian indicators. Sad to say I was almost bereft of ideas while you were muzzled.
Prediction: the muzzle goes back on you this week.
Doesn’t feel like a Friday without a failure.
Bergen/Passaic/Hudson property tax increases:
http://dng.northjersey.com/media_server/tr/2009/03/13proptax/proptax.pdf
Nice, NYT advocating walking away from mortgages..
“In an economic environment like this one, however, the consequences of giving up on your mortgage may not be as painful as they were a few years ago. Yes, it’s almost always preferable to negotiate a better deal on your existing mortgage than to walk away. But if you can’t work things out with your lender, you probably won’t be sued. You shouldn’t receive a major tax bill either. And the damage to your credit will not be permanent or insurmountable.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/14/your-money/mortgages/14money.html?8dpc
Just for some perspective, a 1 cent property tax increase in Holmdel generates about $450K. The current municipal tax rate (excluding open space fund) there is under 21 cents per $100 of assessed value. This tax cut probably costs the typical Holmdel homeowner about 20 bucks.
The school tax rate is about 5x the municipal rate.
grim (52)-
Didn’t you get the memo? All is well.
[45] confused
Dunno why Tennessee legislature is so obsessed with cigarette contraband – with their .62 a pack tax no sane person would bother bringing the stuff in.
Cramer taking shots at the 2x short ETFs yet again. Claims that this “rally is here to stay”. Thinks that recent mergers are a sign of something good (I guess they are…if one’s idea of good is cost-cutting and eliminating jobs in high-tax places like NJ).
His new explanation is that everything bad in the market is the fault of the hedgies and the lack of an uptick rule.
I can’t wait for the uptick rule to be brought back. It is utterly irrelevant. Good short sellers short fundamentally bad stocks. Period.
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/cartoons/20090309inktank?pg=11
variation on the dead-cat bounce:
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/cartoons/20090309inktank?pg=11
” For a while there, you just took out a HELOC and paid them off – no more.”
Does anyone remember the Home -equity loan, not line of credit?
The idae of taking a loan against a set amount ofequity to pay for improvements to the structure always struck me as a better system than having cheques or a debit card against the value of the home. The whole “line of credit” wstruck this consumer as a tool to encourage people overspend in dribbs and drabbs.
25 Shore
“First he will be making some very close friends who will “protect” him. Well, for a price.”
Yes he will need to do that. But I’m not sure he will find himself 24 hour protection unless he’s in some kind of isolation.
Lost. Whatever happens to that b@st@rd he has earned. He ans his ilk are far more dangerous to society than any street thugs can ever be.
Not afraid to say I got beat up pretty badly this week on the FXP but this rally will die in a week or so just like they all have and we’ll be mining knew lows soon enough.
I have to say, that I could not agree with you in 100%, but that’s just my opinion, which could be wrong.
p.s. You have a very good template . Where did you find it?
I found the recession.
I walked right up to the counter at my local donut shop. First time there has never been a line. The line has been getting shorter and shorter since October.
I’ve noticed the same trend at the local bagel shop.
Keep pouring gas on the wildfire John. Revolution is brewing.
Five Things: Deflationary Forces Continue to Dominate
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MSFT-buffett-BRK-forbes-deflation-inflation/index/a/21607
Another good piece by Kevin Depew re the inflation/deflation debate. He basically says this deflationary period will likely last much longer than anyone anticipates.
The only thing he doesn’t seem to account for is the impact of China’s decision making going forward. They are less likely to be major purchasers of our debt given the sharp decrease in our demand for their exports. They don’t rely on us for military protection like Japan or the Gulf State’s.
Moreover as they start feeling the brunt of this recession/depression they are going to start pumping up the stimulus and that means dumping those dollar reserves to stimulate their economy.
It would be interesting if anybody has run the numbers to see if our having to monetize substantially more of our debt and their dumping our dollars would lead to a quicker surge in inflation here even absent the current debt deatruction and lack of demand for car loans, home loans etc.
51#, clot,
utilities did not participate the rally that much. i would take some gains in banks and put it to more defensive utility sector.
i didn’t see you shot after you got out of srs at 104. my only guess is grim deleted such a post since it was bullish.
my second guess is you may get out one quarter or maximum one half of your srs/skf based on your negative insight of the industry. this bring down your average cost of srs to around $90.
good luck to your muzzle.
>Please share some of these areas of opportunity you’re seeing.
You have to be kidding me here? Summit loses 150k? Westfield loses 170k? Montclair loses 120k? If that was in 1920’s I’d say that would be a big deal, but nowadays that doesn’t even cover the coffee expenses in Corzine’s staff office.
What good does this do anyways? It just gives the local municipalities the incentive to increase property taxes because now they have to hire an extra person to figure out how to save the money they lost.
Again Corzine is just spinning numbers hoping people in NJ are too stupid to realize this amounts to nothing. No wonder we still see approval ratings as high as it is.
fairly certain this has been posted before, but it’s the funniest real estate video i’ve seen:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM
the rememorable hitler scene, but with a real estate translation.
ive seen this for other topics, and it’s always a hit
bi says:
March 13, 2009 at 10:44 pm
with the market down over 50%, i see opportunities.
well, that cements it … clot’s 4500 dow call is on point. dammit
bi (70)-
Huh? I wish I could comprehend even half of one of your posts. I’d love to see a thread of posts with nobody but you and 200K posting. It’d be like a festival of non-sequiturs.
I do see you’re bullish of utilities. I’ll have to put on a short vs that sector on Monday. Thanks.
#72 yikes
That’s awesome. Too funny.
As to apparel/accessory companies…
Expect a lot of shake out in this industry.
Once twenty-somethings lose their desire and/or ability to go into debt for designer handbags, etc. it’s going to be a challenge to this industry.
Take a look at some of the stock prices on the big players in the industry – not pretty.
Can counties or municipalities in NJ vote themselves a temporary sales tax to pay for specific things instead of always hiking the property taxes? Have a referendum specifically detailing which projects – new schools, upgrading which park, etc. will be funded and then vote on a penny increase in sales tax for 18 months. Then it goes away. Seems to work in other places.
Corzine? Is that you?
C’mon give me a break. You don’t fix things by pouring more money in it.
You cut it. Get rid of all those people that agreed to spend the money. They’re the cause of the problem AND getting paid the most.
Yes people, that means losing jobs. Here’s a statistic for you, in 2008 the private sector lost jobs yet the public sector hired more people.
http://www.dailyrecord.com/article/20090304/UPDATES01/90304017/1005/NEWS01
Outofstater says:
March 14, 2009 at 9:52 am
Can counties or municipalities in NJ vote themselves a temporary sales tax to pay for specific things instead of always hiking the property taxes?
#78 My goodness, you’re testy this morning. Oh wait, this is Jersey. What I meant to say was, “Jeez! Who peed in your cornflakes this morning?”
“vote on a penny increase in sales tax for 18 months. Then it goes away”
The only problem, like “temporary” tolls on the Parkway, they would never go away.
Temporary tolls and taxes always become permanent sources of revenue to keep feeding the beast.
NJ will not stop taxing until they drive out the middle class and no one remains except rich people and those who serve them.
Classic liberalism: those who are deemed extraordinary by a society are either the wealthy or the downtrodden (who then become the object of the wealthy class’ noblesse oblige).
It should really be called what it is: compassionate apartheid.
Look a what a success public housing was in the 60’s and 70’s.
There’s your compassionate apartheid at work.
This citizen firmly believes that the root of poor government lies in the establishment of a class of “career politicians.” Remove pensions for elected office and we will soon be on the way towards responsive and cost-effective government.
“drive out the middle class”
Or drive them into poverty.
I was going through some archives of NJRE circa early 2007 (before I knew about this blog) and was astonished at the level of discourse and insight it provided, sans the political bickering which is all too frequent nowadays. Also, not a single mention of DM by Chifi :).
I know that I have been guilty of contributing to the noise factor via politics, and henceforth, will abstain from any political comments. I think it is mostly because of doomer fatigue, we all know where this train is headed and the only thing left to be determined is whether we will crash and burn or live to fight another day.
These are prophetic words from BC Bob, and an absolute gem of a post.
BC Bob says:
December 29, 2006 at 12:15 pm
I’ll stick to what I said, about a year ago. We are in the beginning stages of possibly the biggest bust in US history. Yes bigger than the stock market crashes. You have to remember that you need cash to obtain a margin position in stocks, none in RE. Also, in stocks you have a margin clerk looking over your shoulder. In RE, the only margin clerk you have is the sheriff taking you out by the shoulder. Approx 15-20% of market participants own close to 65-75% of stocks. In RE you have almost 70% of the population, that “own” their house/condo/co-op. The multipler effect in RE is enormous as compared to the stock market.
The credit bubble is astronomical.The banks can’t make $ with an inverted yield curve and the 15/30 year market is on sabbatical. Banks were forced to go where they really had no businees and didn’t really want to be there, the subprime. This is what this market has been built on for the past 3 years. A foundation of debt,debt,debt, built like a deck of cards.
There is no way the fundamentals of this market support 2005 prices.If they did, why haven’t rental prices escalated the same?? We have gone from a P/E of 10 to approx 25!![cost of a property in relation to its rent] When RE evolved from a good solid investment, annual gains at or near inflation, to resemble a pork belly trade,it was clear, at least to me, that this was an unsustainable bubble/mania. Now with investors gone, flippers gone and the subprime getting squeezed, what’s left besides how long/how bad???
As previously stated, 30-40% off 2005 highs in a 5-7 year time frame. There will be flurries of buying along the way. It may acttually appear that the bottom is in. Don’t be fooled. Too much excess to get wrung out in too short of a time period. I am actually quite suprised how fast this has unraveled in just the 1st year. I may be too conservative in my estimate. However, I will not flip flop like others.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/What-do-those-called-downturn/story.aspx?guid={7DEE6F9B-344D-498A-9B6F-D36D56F8B577}&dist=hplatest
A Few Who Got it Right Commentary: What do those who called the downturn think?
Gary Shilling –
“It took about 30 years to build up this bubble,” he says, “My guess is five to ten years to unwind this.”
Gary Shilling is still bearish on housing – there’s excess inventory of 2.4 million homes on the market and its taking a long time to work that down.
“That’s why home prices have a way to go before they bottom. He’s looking for a peak to trough decline of 40% in housing prices nationwide. As the fourth quarter, the 20-city Standard and Poor’s home price index had only fallen 27% from its highs in 2006.”
“At the bottom, Shiller expects some 25 million borrowers will be underwater on their mortgages. That’s half of all mortgages and one-third of all owned houses in the U.S. Similarly, he doesn’t think the current recession will end until at least early 2010. That would make this the longest recession since WW11.”
Victorian,
Whilst I agree that the political side of things sometimes gets out of hand, Grim’s own description of the blog, from the top of this page states “Real Estate, Economics, and Politics.”
Inasmuch as politics does much to drive rhe economics of home ownership, examining the political system and players is a vital aspect of a careful analysis of where the RE market is likely to go.
Missed this in Mish this week:
Global ZIRP Arrives
“Effectively the US and Japan are now at 0-25% and the UK and EU are at .5%.
Thus, global ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy), has arrived. The odds that this stimulates lending to customers or between banks is slim. Quantitative easing is the next step, and the Bank of England is already foolishly marching down that path.
The fact remains that quantitative easing did not help Japan one iota. Instead Japan has the highest debt to GDP ratio of G20.”
Another step taken in the march off a cliff.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/What-do-those-called-downturn/story.aspx?guid={7DEE6F9B-344D-498A-9B6F-D36D56F8B577}&dist=hplatest
@89
The link didn’t work – from Marketwatch
Well -drat -anyway…..
” Shiller expects some 25 million borrowers will be underwater on their mortgages. ”
No way. Anyone who made stupid decisions and overlevereged themselves will be bailed out and made whole by the USG. At worst, folks will have no equity, but B.O. seems intent on preventing people from suffering the pain they have earned by their own actions.
Now, people who put down 20%, and always paid their mortgage on time, if they go underwater, they are on their own. After all, there are imprudent people to save.
#46,
Bot it @70, I am going to average down in the 50s.
Sorry to say but CRE is going down big time. With rents down 50% in Manhattan, a lot of the condo buildings are worth $0.0.
RE bonds keep going down big time (-25% in a week), which means more downgrades and writedows for banks. Ugly out there, and I don’t care what the equity markets tell me.
vic (87)-
The politics, guns, wine, strollers and bizarre off-topic chat is simply an indicator that the 24/7, fullcourt press-type discourse on RE has pretty much run its course here. All we need to know about daily RE events can be summed up in a good topic selection by Grim and 50 posts.
Any result short of complete destruction of the RE market would be enough to drive the main topic back to RE and keep the threads going for at least a year or two after things actually begin to get better.
Shore, you’re right. Right now the world is preparing to punish the producers, reward the looters. Straight out of Atlas Shrugged.
re. Politics on the blog, maybe you all missed this:
grim says:
March 12, 2009 at 10:59 pm
Too much politics, I don’t even like reading the blog anymore.
When the blog’s creator/owner/moderator says this…. hmmm…..
Frank (95)-
The pop in SRS yesterday- despite an up market and a whipping for SKF- speaks volumes.
Seems as though a lot of other folks are waking up to the CMBS & CRE plutonium bomb about to detonate. Maybe CRE will be the topic that gets us back to talking about RE here.
Clot,
I am coming to think that even if it takes sparking a round of hyperinflation B.O. and Fedco will do anything to prevent housing prices from settling where they would in a well-functioning free-market economy. Sure, inflation may wipe put the accumulated savings of the prudent; however, there are very few of these and it would have the upside of reducingthe cost of our federal debt.
Drink and be merry, for tomorrow ye may die.
CRE?
commercial RE perhaps?
#102 Shore Guy,
I thought CRE = Commercial Real Estate.
I have a prospective client who is in CRE in Phoenix (yeech). His specialty is retail. I met him, because he grew up in Somerville and now needs to sell his mom’s house because she went into assisted living.
Anyway, he calls me yesterday to talk shop. To cut to the chase, my problems aren’t 1/10 of his. He says that over 50% of his clients’ tenants haven’t paid rent in months and that most who haven’t paid are demanding rent reductions and threatening constructive eviction (aka, leaving the leasehold and mailing the keys back to the LL).
The killer in all this is that in retail RE, LLs are loath to evict, as it creates vacancy in the complexes that makes it hard to attract other tenants and shoppers alike.
BTW, he predicts that the problem in NJ will become as bad as AZ within a few months.
RE: Gary Shilling.
He is firmly in the deflation camp and is a bull on USTs. He says that we will not see inflation in the near future because of the tremendous debt overhang in the economy. The velocity of money is almost zero. All the money being printed is being swallowed up by the debt in the system.
This is why I am confused about gold at this moment, it seems like such an obvious play and making money is not supposed to be easy. I think (hope) that Gold will retrace itself down to 700’s or 600’s shaking out all the weak bulls and then take off when nobody expects it and feel that inflation is not a threat. Too many people crowing about inflation at this point.
BTW, Gary also said in his Bloomberg interview that at the end of this, we will have to hold our nose and bail everybody out.
Was in Las Vegas for 3 days. All the casino floors at least 50% empty. No crowds on street. I have never seen it this bad,
vic (105)-
Naah. Much easier to repudiate the debt and/or start a war. Also, more collateral benefits accrue when you start a war. If you win, you can claim to history that your debt never existed. You simply defeated evil.
“…Gary also said in his Bloomberg interview that at the end of this, we will have to hold our nose and bail everybody out.”
Frank,
Can you post any links. We might want to pick up some land for the heck of it.
#104,
RE market out West is just as bad. FDIC is selling homes for $5K each. Clear title. It’s coming to neighborhood near you, just look at the auction results from last weekend.
Shore – I have a Palm Treo 750. No IPhone until corporate IT finishes testing and my phone is up for replacement.
The Gators stayed at a ‘lovely’ suite hotel with the in-laws just outside of Disney. You know the type of place – on a road with every chain restaurant imaginable. After a tasty breakfast at the Waffle House (must indulge the nostalgia of my college days at least once per trip down here) we are headed down I95 to visit with some college friends.
Stu is very disappointed the Bi did not honor the muzzle agreement. He’ll post his own missive on that later, when he’s no behind the wheel. Stu believes in the inherent good in everyone, and thought Bi would keep his word. I, OTOH, after working at the Death Star for over 10 years just assume most people are full of crap. Well except for Sir Topham Hatt. He always keeps his word and makes the trains run on-time. So we’re takingLil Gator to see him tomorrow.
49: Clot
“with the market down over 50%, i see opportunities.”
I see dead people.
********************************
I have a t-shirt that says
“I see stupid people”
I have to wear it so often it’s getting threadbare.
Clot,
I’m in a… well… you know where I am located.
My 25K sq ft building with normally 7 tenants is down to 4.
I’m the biggest tenant.
Company next to me was here 17 years. Pulled a jingle mail last Monday. Only had 2 employees, but still, 4K+ SF abandoned.
I’m waiting for my other neighbor to pull a midnight move. He moved IN “overnight”, I expect ONLY THE BEST out of him, again…
My LL lost another WHOLE BUILDING about 2 months ago. General Electric (Making wind turbine controllers) had approx 70K sq ft with 3 years left; broke lease and abandoned ship. Buh bies. They still operating in NC, they just downsized all leased space to owned properties…
Same with Ortho behind me. No leases. Everything gets commingled into owed space.
I’m not worried, however.
Seriously.
I am aware, conscientious and cognizant of what is happening around me but am trying my best to not let my emotions prohibit me from living NOW.
I have to live THRU it.
So, one foot in front of the other, one day after the next, another load of laundry, another cat to the vet…
If it lasts 6 weeks. 6 months. 6 years. It doesn’t matter. I have to go THRU it. I cannot bury my head and have someone tap me on the shoulder when it’s over.
Not everyone is flucked. Not everyone is upside down. Not everyone is suicidal.
This is certainly shaking the chaff from the seed heads, and now we’re finding out who wasn’t watching their P&L’s… but many people were careful.
And we’re out here. Putting one foot in front of the other, dragging yet another cat to the vet, buying yet another cart of groceries…
#106
We are going to Vegas in early summer so out of curiosity – have prices gone down for shows or restaurants? I hope it’s not a ghost town by the time we get there.
Good way to look at it Spam!
Let’s try to wrap our heads around this.
You have an aging demographic that drove a boom. This segment was NOT raised in excess and opulence. Eldests of large families that were raised frugally(expected to contribute/fend for themselves). They came of age (attempting to start their adult lives) in a decade that blew…the one that everyone skips over, it was called the 1970’s. Year by year from start to finish-tumultuous gritty : politics, social, economic both here and abroad.
Most of them are not stoopid-they are looking at this thing from a different perspective now(age wise-they are in a different place ). It would be no skin off their noses to cut back on one hand -on the other ???????
Vic – Here’s my take on it (blog-wise).
Couple of years ago it was like watching a slow moving train crash from a distance – you could see what was about to happen, and had the distance to be able to analyse it. First housing and then the local financial and finally global financial implications.
Now – it is starting to knock on the door, people are losing jobs, people’s businesses are down and it becomes a lot more personal.
It is one thing to talk about about the unsustainable living standards of the United States and other western nations. It is another to actually realize that that this does not just apply to other people but to ALL of us. To the extent that very middle class people will consider moving to countries they have never even visited in an attempt to become a wealthy expat and maintain their current lifestyle. In numbers that probably dooms that plan to failure as most developing nations probably can’t handle that number of people descending on them without it leading to large amounts of unrest.
It’s all become personal and with that, objectivity goes out the window.
Shore Guy says:
March 14, 2009 at 11:32 am
Clot,
I am coming to think that even if it takes sparking a round of hyperinflation B.O. and Fedco will do anything to prevent housing prices from settling where they would in a well-functioning free-market economy. Sure, inflation may wipe put the accumulated savings of the prudent; however, there are very few of these and it would have the upside of reducingthe cost of our federal debt.
Drink and be merry, for tomorrow ye may die.
sad, but true.
Vic – AND.
It is just harder to analyze in a truly effective manner. The mess is global and there are an enormous amount of variations in terms of what can happen – big countries around the world and their governments are all eying each other up and trying to work out not only what to do but what the other guys are going to do.
Every action has multiple reactions and there are multiple actors – US, China, Russia, Europe, India and so on, all affecting production, gold prices, oil prices and so on.
The danger is in hubris and punditry, assuming that seeing where things were headed a couple of years ago, in an infinitely simpler scenario, means that it is straightforward to see where things are going now.
We’ve moved from thoughtful analysis to punditry.
2000 Prices in Bridgewater?
MLS#: 2646674
1653 WASHINGTON VALLEY RD
SOLD 06/23/00 $350000
SOLD 05/04/07 $620000
LISTED 02/11/2009 $499900
Price Change 3/14/09 $349000
The 2007 sale was to someone with the same last name as the 2000 sale. So i am not sure if money really exchanged hands or not.
Do any of the Realtors out there know what the deal is with this place?
Just guessing but maybe the 2007 was a divorce and the “sale” was really a change of title?
yikes (118)-
The minute housing prices are allowed to fall, the MBS behind them fall to levels that will reveal the obvious insolvency of our banks.
Tilt.
Game over.
Will never happen. O and his banking masters will break us all and perpetuate the charade forever before they admit this
“It’s all become personal and with that, objectivity goes out the window.”
Yes and more political with every passing second.
It’s like watching a boa constrictor swallowing its tail and slowly consume itself.
#120 gaigon
I just drove past that house. Small ranch with a detached garage. Very steep hill in the backyard.
I can’t understand the description for this one.
http://www.remax-nj.com/remaxnj/index.asp?p=findahome.asp&selected=mls&listing=true&mlsnumber=2655591&mlsid=203
125 Safe
It’s a 3 family- first second and third floors are all separate apartments.
#114, Did not check out any show prices. I think ticket price were still same, but lot of tickets available at 1/2 off on the street ticket shop. Restaurants prices are same, but they are empty.
we were at Rumjungle bar yesterday evening at Mandalay Bay. There were total of 12 people including 6 of us. Same story at restaurants and buffets.
http://www.mandalaybay.com/dining/rumjunglelounge.aspx
#126 lostinny,
That’s what I thought, but the listing is missing some info and/or punctuation.
“…A study of cheating among graduate students, published in 2006 in the journal Academy of Management Learning & Education, found that 56 percent of all M.B.A. students cheated regularly — more than in any other discipline. The authors attributed that to “perceived peer behavior” — in other words, students believed everyone else was doing it…”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/business/15school.html?pagewanted=2&ref=business
Reminds you of something?
#100 shore: I am coming to think that even if it takes sparking a round of hyperinflation B.O. and Fedco will do anything to prevent housing prices from settling where they would in a well-functioning free-market economy
They will settle there anyhow in apit of B/O and FEDCO;it all window dressing on their part.
lost (126)-
Bullshit. You can cram at least eight families into that place, easy. :)
#113 spam: but many people were careful.
But many more were not, if they were careful, than we would not be in the awful mess that we are in.
#122 Clot: And yet prices are continuing to fall in spite of the clowns in D.C.
Looking at #122, it suddenly seems to me as thought the Wizard of Oz is a metaphor for everything in America.
Note to self: start drinking more.
57.cobbler says:
March 14, 2009 at 12:17 am
[45] confused
Dunno why Tennessee legislature is so obsessed with cigarette contraband – with their .62 a pack tax no sane person would bother bringing the stuff in.
Very disturbing to see such an onerous trend in Law & Enforcement. You could substitute virtually any product or action into the current Law, and create a real “Constitution be Damned” State. There is no way that Law and it’s punishment could be constitutional. Also interesting to see that they have effectively neutered interstate commerce.
confused [135]
I think there is some exemption on state sales/use and specifically excise taxes v. interstate commerce promotion; states can tax whatever they like, and enforce it. But giving someone a mandatory 1 year jail sentence for avoiding $150 in state excise tax (25 cartons of cigs) is a gross miscarriage of justice; besides, even in “cheap” TN they’ll spend at least 10K in state money on jailing him for a year. Terrible ROI here…
What do guys think of the following for our present financial maelstrom.
“Receivership of Chase/Citi/Wells/BOA+ GS. Well, Chase & GS might still be above water -put they are the pluses to the other minuses (which will include Fannie/Freddie/AIG). Plus GS has to pay on 2 counts -Counterparty to AIG & they created a large part of this mess. New banks that failed will be absorbed into one of these entities.
Stockholders wipe out. Bondholder saved. All of the corporations once out of receivership – will become Mutual Corporations -they will become the Financial Utilities.
They will all become centrifuges to sort & cancel out CDS/MBS/CDO+CDO2, etc.
Housing -all mortgages in trouble -one refinance attempt as per FDIC protocol -if not the short sale/ if not then foreclosure -with title transfer to HUD for residential and Commerce Dept for CRE. HUD will transfer title (for low/middle income rental housing with some with laddered selling allowance in 5-15 yrs) to local housing authorities & charities (Salvation Army, etc) with strong supervision, some grant money & Line of Credit for supplies of purchase thru the General Services Administration (Fed Gov’t Landlord agency). Same for Commerce Dept. – Using the CRE with the Small Bus Adm. & local authorities to create local/regional/small business incubators. -which the CRE can provide free/low cost start up physical presence -Think equivalent of subsidize housing for small business.)
Transfer of wealth back to the little guy – Financial Stabilization -> All of the above banks would do as follow -> Lower all present loan fees & percentage to single digits -based on risk. Pay more on savings accts. Create an account like are popular in Europe -Ing Direct has them here under the Electric Orange. Essentially an electronic payment acct with a line of credit. If your positive you earn interest & if negative you pay a very low/decent interest. Allow people to roll over the car loans/Line of Equity/Credit Cards/Mortgages into this account. Will required direct deposit of income & cancellation of loans/loan accts transfer into it, as well as new loans can only be taken out thru the bank & properly qualify – Or high penalties & expulsion from program apply. (think of a non-legal system way of modified bankruptcy, minus all the fees & high interest). If persons are compliant frees up capital for qualified people + does not penalize & put into a corner & in fact incetivize those that are in the margin.
Now I know, of course it would never happen – Because “the banking system wants to have the cake and eat it too” & our legilsators are sold out. No politician would have the balls to do something like this. Specially kill Goldman Sachs.
128 Safe
Yes punctuation. If the ad is like that I can’t imagine how he is as an agent.
131 Clot
Well yes you could. I’m sorry I didn’t think of that.
Inquirer (137)-
I like the way you think. Even though it is a total fantasy, it’s good.
lost (138)-
Why? He’s alive and breathing. There are no other requirements.
“If the ad is like that I can’t imagine how he is as an agent.”
Pay no attention to those MBS behind the curtain…
Surrender, Timmay…
“politics”
get a leg up blokes, no more weeping willows.
you can’t talk about RE without a mention of some political mumbo gumbo.
I know this is a RE blog, but its hand & glove.
who you think started the whole RE bubble?
oh yeah, according to the Fox News it was the damn illegals who started the bubble.
silly me.
SAS
just cross out San Diego, and replace it with NJ.
http://media.signonsandiego.com/img/photos/2009/03/12/breen13_t400.jpg
SAS
“Trump Sued by Condo Buyers Over Abandoned Baja Luxury Resort”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amZyVmUO5gJU&refer=home
nothing to see here. go back to your MLS.
“CHINA SYNDROME
LEADER WARNS US OF MELTDOWN FROM SPENDING”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/03142009/business/china_syndrome_159440.htm
[45] confused
Nearly every state has similar laws. This becomes especially hot in border states to places like NH, which sell cigs, booze and fireworks with NO taxes to Mass and Maine folks. Troopers regularly hang out in NH parking lots to take down license numbers and bust people. Been doing it for decades.
Sometimes it gets comical. Once, NH troopers arrested Maine troopers for, what I don’t know, but it had to do with that practice.
[148] The most profitable one is to drive the cigs from Yonkers to the Bronx…
http://www.taxadmin.org/fta/rate/cigarett.html
95#, frank, what number are you looking at? from what i see from bloomberg terminal, the spread of CMBX were down for all tranches for the week ending march 13. Morgan Stanley CMBS index were virtually little changed for the week.
I lived in KY.
I smoked back then.
The packs WERE always missing the stamps.
ALWAYS.
We had tons of tobacco hanging in the sheds and acres of it growing about 40′ from the house…
The local stores ALL sold contraband packs. I don’t think they knew what a tax stamp would even look like.
Farmers made more on pot crops. Every farmer had pockets of weed. Even 80 yr old southern baptist jeebus freeks who would preach against it but grow it without seeing the incredible irony…
sas (146)-
Trump. The name is synonymous with success.
Excuse me while I remove my leg hairs with industrial pliers.
An account we don’t use that often turns up with $2000+ worth of charges to some skype phone company and some other place that looks like an airline. I am really pissed. The bank closed the accounts now but what a nightmare.
I wonder how it was stolen since the debit card remains in my wallet. Web site hacked into or a copy made by a clerk at a store?
132: 3b.
Totally agree. Many people were crazed lunatics in the roller coaster without a safety bar…
But you know what?
They’re the splat of human pizza on the ground now.
Sure, right now, half the rides are shut down and there’s tons of cops and EMTs everywhere, and everyone is craning to see a glimpse of the pizza…
But if you notice, some people will start moving over to the concession to get some fries and lo and behold, at some point you’ll realize the nearby rides have started back up…
So, you can stand with the other losers, next to the fence, craning to catch a glimpse long after the ambulances and cop cars are gone and the rides are all back in operation… or you can make a note to use your safety bar, and go look for the rides with short lines…
We all paid and entry fee. We’re all at the park. The difference is all in how you use your time here.
Renter,
Look your history of charges.
It’s a clue.
#150,
I don’t watch CMBX closely, but cash non-agency bonds and ABX dropped like a rock this week. Japanese investors dumped a lot of mortgage bonds and people are afraid that more is coming.
http://www.markit.com/information/products/category/indices/abx.html
#153 You could pay for things with cash. More than once I’ve gotten remarks from salespeople like, “Whoa. we don’t often see real money.”
how big of a sh!tshow will this story be on monday? i dont care if IDOL is on 5 times this week … the masses will have this story shoved down their throat by every media outlet
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/business/15AIG.html?_r=1&hp
WASHINGTON — Despite being bailed out with more than $170 billion from the Treasury and Federal Reserve, the American International Group is preparing to pay about $100 million in bonuses to executives in the same business unit that brought the company to the brink of collapse last year.
“We cannot attract and retain the best and the brightest talent to lead and staff the A.I.G. businesses — which are now being operated principally on behalf of American taxpayers — if employees believe their compensation is subject to continued and arbitrary adjustment by the U.S. Treasury,” he wrote Mr. Geithner. The government owns nearly80 percent of the company.
If only we worked at AIG, we wouldn’t have a care in the world. Fcuk up all you want and get a bonus at the end of it. Nice “talent” we have there.
A.I.G. to Pay $100 Million in Bonuses After Huge Bailout
Despite being bailed out with more than $170 billion from the Treasury and Federal Reserve, the American International Group is preparing to pay about $100 million in bonuses to executives in the same business unit that brought the company to the brink of collapse last year.
“We cannot attract and retain the best and the brightest talent to lead and staff the A.I.G. businesses — which are now being operated principally on behalf of American taxpayers — if employees believe their compensation is subject to continued and arbitrary adjustment by the U.S. Treasury,” he wrote Mr. Geithner. The government owns nearly 80 percent of the company.
Nice, we own 80% of the company, but have no say on the compensation plans. And where exactly, are these “best and brightest” going to go? After they royally fcuked AIG, who the hell is going to hire them. This is a fcuking outrage.
LOL @ yikes. We copied the exact same passages. We are now infected with the NJRE virus.
@ 132
Relax.
Forget that-it’s done.
One foot in front of the other.
There is no crying.
Eat or wear it.
It’s cool. Chill.
sorry, im not buying the “best and brightest” bullshit
if they were so bright, how the fuck did AIG get to this spot?
maybe replace best and brightest by greediest and most unscrupulous
Eh, you guys are pretty cynical and I cannot say I blame you. This is one helluva pickle. As for politics, I think the less said the better…between that and religion…both seem to make people stupid.
For perspective, 100 million is .06% of 170 billion.
I’m not defending the bonuses of course, but it seems like all the stories of wasted taxpayer funds in the MSM are all about bonuses rather than an examination that every single cent of taxpayer money may be wasted when all is said and done.
“MGM mulling breakup to pay looming debts: report”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090314/bs_nm/us_mgm_breakup_wsj
“China ‘worried’ about US Treasury holdings”
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D96T2TT81&show_article=1
@162 You have to figure things are bad if they are pathetically dragging up the Anna Nicole thing….
“S.C. governor evokes Zimbabwe in arguments against stimulus”
http://tinyurl.com/clq2h4
“Greek Group That Targeted Citigroup Warns of Plan for Revolt”
http://tinyurl.com/ch4t5f
your govt loves and cares about you so much… no need to talk about them, lets just trust them and goto Wildwood and play frisbee.
“Congress Caves on Online Contracts
Senate Makes Major Concession in Stripping Internet Posting Provision From Stimulus”
http://washingtonindependent.com/33273/congress-caves-on-online-contracts
Jon Stewart going toe to toe with Cramer
I don’t think re101 will like it.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/index.jhtml?episodeId=220533
the political talk is only because of the election. it’s why politico had more page views in 2008 than all but like 8 newspapers (or something, i dont have exact stats, but it’s out there)
this will fade by summer, when we’re talking about tax revolts and such.
can’t get too worked up about politics. we have no say, 99% of them are dirty, what’s the point?
just got work my angles and handle my business
spam spam bacon spam – it’s not that bad, for heaven’s sake. we’re not talking mass starvation here. the human pizza can pick itself up and get unemployment benefits and move in with mom, and take up gardening and checkers and watch network TV and ultimately find some sort of employment in the years ahead. that’s better than most people have had it in most of human history.
spam spam bacon spam says:
March 14, 2009 at 8:57 pm
132: 3b.
Totally agree. Many people were crazed lunatics in the roller coaster without a safety bar…
But you know what?
They’re the splat of human pizza on the ground now.
Sure, right now, half the rides are shut down and there’s tons of cops and EMTs everywhere, and everyone is craning to see a glimpse of the pizza…
But if you notice, some people will start moving over to the concession to get some fries and lo and behold, at some point you’ll realize the nearby rides have started back up…
So, you can stand with the other losers, next to the fence, craning to catch a glimpse long after the ambulances and cop cars are gone and the rides are all back in operation… or you can make a note to use your safety bar, and go look for the rides with short lines…
We all paid and entry fee. We’re all at the park. The difference is all in how you use your time here.
Now the Chosen One is talking about taxing health benefits. Some things never change, like broken campaign promises. Get ready for an increase in taxes, and also reduced benefits. I just don’t think this is a problem that we can tax our way out of. Of course the O Team thinks differently on that.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/us/politics/15health.html?ref=business
yikes (158)-
Fcuk up, move up.
Think that the gubmint won’t break us all, just to keep the zombie AIG on life support?
Think again.
Not so fast Clotpoll. Remember that AIG needs to retain the ‘best and the brightest’. Of course the best and the brightest also got us into this mess. Maybe they should start hiring idiots. The end result probably would have been the same.
#173 jim,
Wait till they figure out how to slap a surcharge on vacation and sick days to help pay for unemployment and health care.