From the Trenton Times:
State may lift age-restrictions on some housing
As developers across the state hesitate to break ground on projects that looked more profitable in better economic times, experts say housing reserved for residents “55 and older” is in all-too abundant supply in New Jersey.
The glut has led state lawmakers to consider a bill that could allow developers to remove age limits on already-approved housing without starting the municipal approval process anew.
If the state tosses builders a lifeline and allows them to market the homes to a wider market, supporters of the proposed law say, 55-and-over projects that currently stand dormant could become active construction sites, creating much-needed jobs.
Yet in advance of a vote on the measure in the state Assembly today, some local officials are crying foul.
They say such age-restricted developments were often approved because of their relatively low impact on local schools and other taxpayer-funded government services. Remove the restrictions, they argue, and property owners will foot the bill.
In Hamilton, Mayor John Bencivengo drafted a letter last week pleading with state lawmakers to vote against the plan.
He said age restrictions on two Hamilton developments with a combined 431 housing units could be removed under the proposed law.
“This is absolutely ridiculous. We don’t have any more room in these schools,” Bencivengo said in an interview last week. “What’s the sense of having the planning board in the local town if this is what the state can do? The reason we approved this in the first place is because it was senior housing.”
Under the proposal, developers who already have approval for a 55-and-over community would have a two-year window during which they can apply to the local planning or zoning board for removal of the age restrictions.
hov will be doing backflips
I had a couple of questions on a REO Property from yesterday… Anyone with time to kill before the open the markets (and/or the mouths of the politicians :))
We got some MLS listings from a realtor at an open house in Greenbrook, NJ. One was for 6 Red Bud Lane, 08812, asking 650k+, and another was 10 Red Bud Lane, 08812, asking for about 525k. When we drove by the place, the sign on 10 RBL said “Bank Owned”. We are unable to get *any information* on that. I was stupid not to pick the realtor information for the house (MLS ID# 2658166). It has been on market for 14 days.
Q1) Where do I find details on this property (and ones like it)?
Q2) What are the general issues to be concerned about (condition of the home)?
Q3) Should we get a buyer’s agent? (we are not sure if we will bite the bullet this year or wait for next spring)
Thanks,
S
There’s a glut of 55+ communities in NJ? Did we suddenly run out of older boomers and seniors?
Or can they no longer sell their pos 60 year old ranch/cape/colonial for 600k, then pay 250k for a new house in a 55+ community and live off the difference plus soc security.
Q1) Where do I find details on this property (and ones like it)?
On the MLS, ask here and someone will post the details.
Q2) What are the general issues to be concerned about (condition of the home)?
Noticing that many bank-owned properties are in very rough condition. Was in a REO in Morris County in which the plumbing froze and subsequently flooded the house when it defrosted. Home is almost completely ruined. Sold for almost $700k in 2005. Still salvageable although it needs to be gutted. It doesn’t sell by Summer, the home will have major mold problems and will need to be leveled.
Q3) Should we get a buyer’s agent? (we are not sure if we will bite the bullet this year or wait for next spring)
Why wouldn’t you employ a BA? Someone is going to be paid for this role when the transaction takes place, it might as well be someone on your side.
10 Red Bud was purchased in ’99 for $452k.
It was listed for sale by the owner in October of 2007 for $749,000.
Was foreclosed, now listed by the bank for $525,500.
Doesn’t look terrible, needs new carpets, paint, appliances.
Check your email.
Shout out to Clot for “we get….tonight”….guy’s got my number!
From the Ledger:
N.J. lawmakers will vote on bill to let towns defer pension payments
A bill allowing financially strapped New Jersey towns to put off making half their payments to the public employee pension fund is set for a vote today in the legislature.
Jennifer Brown/The Star-LedgerGov. Jon Corzine
The legislation was proposed by Gov. Jon Corzine to provide property tax relief to municipalities during the recession. It stalled after some lawmakers balked at deferring the payments even in a tough economy.
Corzine’s proposal called for a three-year deferral. But the compromise legislation allows for 50 percent of 2009’s payments to be delayed, and only for towns struggling to meet their expenses.
Municipalities would make up the payment over 15 years along with their regular contributions.
Don’t hate the playa, hate the game. :)
grim (7)-
Train coming off the tracks…
Cramer was right, there’s always a bull market somewhere.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dollars-from-dirt-Economy-apf-14644483.html
Home gardening growing at double digit rates.
From the Record:
Visitors, patients shocked by hospital bankruptcy
Visitors and patients who trickled out of St. Mary’s Hospital today were shocked that the hospital was bankrupt and worried it might close.
“It would be a crime for this place to shut down,” said Anthony Ozga, a Wallington resident whose brother was being treated at St. Mary’s.
…
“A person could die,” said, Ozga, who has been coming to St. Mary’s since 1964.
…
“The government should save it,” Johnson said. “They need help. People in the community, they need a hospital.”
“The government should save it,” Johnson said. “They need help. People in the community, they need a hospital.”
Save it? With what money? State and local government pissed away every penny they had. Even worse, instead of saving during the “good times”, we saddled ourselves with even more debt. Government no longer has the money necessary to save it. The taxpayer, who will be asked to pony up the necessary funds, is strapped as well.
Hong Kong’s ‘elephant’ wounded by financial woes
http://business.smh.com.au/business/world-business/hong-kongs-elephant-wounded-by-financial-woes-20090316-8zrg.html?page=1
If the state tosses builders a lifeline and allows them to market the homes to a wider market… 55-and-over projects that currently stand dormant could become active construction sites, creating much-needed jobs.
I don’t get it. There is already a glut of housing on the market in NJ. What will this solve? Do any of these developers already have funding in place? Or is that the next step for the state as well, under the guise of ‘jobs creation’?
#12 grim
No worries. the government can issue more debt to save it. The local and state give can then default on it, leaving the fed the choice of bailing out the muni insurers by borrowing more money from foreigners making 4k a year, or letting them fail.
Either way interest rates should go up due either to higher risk of loss or inflation.
But I’m probably wrong again. Even The O team says the economy is sound.
The 55 and over change won’t make a difference. I would be ticked off if I was in my 70’s and bought the idea of a golden year utopia, only to have my water aquatics class turn into caddy day at the pool though…doody!!!!
15. safe
Right you are. The O team made the statement that we are in a mess but the economy is sound. I guess that means that the mess we have is sound. It is a sound mess, something like that. What was that line in ‘No Country for Old Men’, “If this isn’t a mess it will do until one comes”.
Grim, thanks very much for 10 Red Bud Lane info.
Do you know any Buyer’s Agent in this area that you can recommend? We are looking to low-ball it a bit, and can scrape through for well over 20% down payment…
It’s a bit of what I’d normally call a “monstrosity” (for our lifestyle), but my wife seems to like the development.
S
A cream puff interview turned up in one of the least expected places Sunday, on 60 Minutes. Correspondent Scott Pelley kicked off an Interview With Bernanke with the question “Mr. Chairman, I’m gonna start with a question that everyone wants me to ask: when does this end?”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
The fundamentals of the economy are sound [JM]
The economy is sound [BO]
Looks like we will be in a bad shape!
S
China’s Rally Doomed by PetroChina’s Hong Kong Gap (Update1)
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Michael Tsang and Chua Kong Ho
March 16 (Bloomberg) — China, the world’s best-performing stock market, is looking increasingly expensive after valuations climbed to the highest in a year compared with mainland companies traded in Hong Kong.
Stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose 21 percent since the end of 2008 as local investors snapped up shares on speculation the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package will boost the slowest growth in seven years. Shares in the yuan-denominated CSI 300 Index traded at 16.2 times earnings this month, compared with 8.6 times for 43 mainland companies in Hong Kong. PetroChina Co., the country’s biggest company, fetches twice the valuation in China as in Hong Kong.
The growing gap shows that international investors are losing confidence both in China’s earnings growth and in the country’s ability to help revive the global economy. The last time the difference in multiples was this wide, Chinese shares lost 19 percent in 30 days.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDtidHGVUJpg&refer=home
FXP?
“Home gardening growing at double digit rates.”
hey, another one of my 2009 predicitions come true.
return of the victory gardens.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_garden
SAS
now, lets just see if they pardon Madoff…
SAS
“FXP?”
yeah, baby!
““The government should save it,” Johnson said. “They need help. People in the community, they need a hospital.”
your govt loves you & cares about you.
afterall, they are fighting the so called terrorists that they fund with your own money to keep you save (which they also use your money).
I am so afraid of terrorism.
SAS
“I am so afraid of terrorism”
ha ha ha
and if you believe that, the moon is made of cheese and RE never goes down.
SAS
30 minute interview with Marc Faber on Bloomberg. See’s a decent Bear Market rally but S&P will eventually make it down to 500.
stan (16)-
The location of choice for many 55+ seniors is about to become their kids’ basements.
Jim (17)-
Take away the tan and remove the teleprompters…and you’d swear O is Shrub.
HE (21)-
Haven’t you gotten the memo? All is well, and China is bailing us all out.
You should only be long FXP if you’re interested in making money. :)
CNN was teasing those quotes last night but when they played the O clip it was:
“..there are elements of our economy that are fundamentally sound.” not quite the blanket statement of “our economy is fundamentally sound”.
Sastry says:
March 16, 2009 at 7:55 am
The fundamentals of the economy are sound [JM]
The economy is sound [BO]
Looks like we will be in a bad shape!
Clotpoll (8)
Hey dude, it’s my moto!
sastry (18)-
I know that house. I was the selling agent on it in 1999. Just an awful, sad story behind the owners; the husband got cancer and died two years ago; then the wife contracted cancer and nearly died.
I was in contact with the wife’s mom up until the sheriff sale, trying to get her daughter to short sale or do some sort of workout. The daughter- I guess- was either so happy to be alive, in denial, or both to do anything.
Back to the bank it goes.
The owner lived in the home and kept it well until she had to move. The exterior is EIFS, which you should definitely have a professional inspect…if you buy the house.
Don’t bother lowballing. I think the bank has priced this one to sell, and I think it will go fast.
I sold it for 452K in ’99, and the owners improved it. Can’t get tomorrow’s price today.
Secondary Market: #31
“…there are elements of our economy that are fundamentally sound.”
I agree, though the worry is that there was a need to make such a statement.
S
George (32)-
Actually, I think it belongs to a professional wrestler.
“…there are elements of our economy that are fundamentally sound.”
Yeah. Autozone and places that clean up foreclosed and abandoned properties are doing great.
The AIG story is so painful (regarding new bonuses and bailout of correlated parties like Goldman). I need to punch someone…
Imus (37)-
Start by punching yourself.
Spoken like a man who punches/plays with himself often.
I know I am kind of sheltered in my middle-class existence but I gotta think that many average Americans never ever get a bonus from anybody. It must be inconceivable to them that such huge sums of money are still being given to anybody in this economy, let alone to a company getting taxpayer’s money.
re: FXP?
if you cannot figure it out why home price in your town hasn’t collapsed yet, how can your so sure that the economy 10,000 miles away must collapse before you get out of your 100 shares of FXP?
i am sorry to hear your paper loss on FXP. but i have to re-educate the smartest folks on the planet here: FXP was down around 35% (not up 100%) last year while FXI was down around 50%. got it?
Mr. Bernanke appeared ill at ease (to me at least) last night, and his comment about the recession ending this year sounded more like wishful thinking on his part. He did not say it with alot of confidence.
Keep in mind, this is the same Bernanke who said we would avoid a recession in the first place.
Cannot see why the markets would have any confidence in this guy.
42#, 3b, chairman bernanke did great job last night at 60 minutes. he is probally the best guy in washington who can give confidence to investment communities. anybody else is better qualified than him to be a fed chairman? you may say volker but i would prefer vodka.
From MarketWatch:
Empire State index falls to fresh record low
The Empire State manufacturing survey fell 4 points in March to -38.2, a fresh record low, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported on Monday. Just 10% of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 48% reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index plunged 14 points to -44.8, eclipsing the record low set last month, it added.
3b-
My wife and I said the same thing. He was very nervous, had a peter brady-like voice. That said, I watched the amazing race afterwards, and its not a bad show.
From Bloomberg:
New York Manufacturing Index Slumped to Record Low in March
Manufacturing in New York contracted in March at the fastest pace on record as orders, sales and inventories plunged.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index dropped to minus 38.2, the lowest level since data began in 2001, from minus 34.7 in February, the bank said today. Readings below zero for the Empire State index signal manufacturing activity is shrinking.
The collapse in global trade, alongside a U.S. economy in its second year of recession, is causing manufacturers to pare back production as demand plummets. The subsequent payroll cuts have prompted the Obama administration to pledge to save or create 3.5 million jobs through tax cuts and more spending.
“The demand for manufactured products — both domestically and globally — has evaporated,” Steven Wood, president of Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California, said before the report. “This has forced factories to substantially reduce production and employment to keep inventories from ballooning.”
Economists forecast the Empire State index would climb to minus 30.8, according to the median of 45 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from minus 25 to minus 40.
The measure of new orders decreased to minus 44.8 and a gauge of shipments fell to minus 26.7, the lowest levels on record. The index of inventories decreased to minus 27, the weakest since August 2001, from minus 8.1.
#43 bi: If you say so.
Volcker stands head and shoulders over Bernanke.
Another Comp Killer from Westfield
Address Date Sale Price
512 DORIAN PL 09/04 $568,000
512 DORIAN PL 03/09 $515,000
Almost 10% off the 2004 price. At this rate, home prices should become affordable at exactly the moment there are no jobs left…
#45 stan: Yes,and at least Amazing Race is more entertaining and believeable than Bernanke.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/03/15/business/aig.php?page=1
Big bonus plans at AIG, despite White House outrage – IHT
“The bonuses will be paid to executives at A.I.G.s financial products division, the unit that wrote trillions of dollars’ worth of credit-default swaps that protected investors from defaults on bonds backed in many cases by subprime mortgages. The bonus plan covers 400 employees, and the bonuses range from as little as $1,000 to as much as $6.5 million. Seven executives at the financial products unit were entitled to receive more than $3 million in bonuses.”
They are calling it “retention pay.”
The article ends with this sentence:
“The financial products unit is now being painstakingly wound down.”
Clot #33…
Thanks for the details. I agree, it is a really sad story. I was telling my wife that it may be a smart(!?) buyer that gamed the system and took a 700 refi and walked after staying rent free for a year…
S
From NYT Dealbook:
UBS Is Said to Plan Up to 5,000 More Layoffs
UBS plans to cut up to 5,000 senior and management jobs in the next few weeks, Swiss weekly SonntagsZeitung said on Sunday, according to Reuters.
It said up to 2,500 management positions could go in UBS’s dominant and profitable wealth management division, which accounts for 50,000 of the bank’s total 77,000 staff.
A UBS spokesman declined to comment to Reuters on the report.
Last week UBS said it was restructuring its Swiss business structure into four regions from eight, and trimming its top management. But it said the changes did not mean any more job cuts than the 600-800 positions it already plans to cut in Switzerland as part of thousands of job losses globally.
In February UBS said after announcing a record loss it would cut 2,000 jobs to take staff to about 75,000 by the middle of this year.
“Can’t get tomorrow’s price today.” – sure you can, I did.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Feb. industrial production down 1.4% vs 0.9% est.
U.S. Jan. industrial output down rev 1.9% vs 1.8% prev est.
U.S. Feb. capacity utilization 70.9% vs 71.9% in Jan.
U.S. Feb. capacity in use lowest since Dec. 1982
U.S. Feb. capacity utilization 70.9% vs 71.9% in Jan.
Read: Overcapacity, room for layoffs
I thought Bernanke was quite good last night. He is an unassuming fellow, an academic. He’s not a salesperson (though some may argue he needs to be).
No one knows how this is all going to end. I’d rather that someone like Bernanke show a little humility and a little caution, unlike loudmouth trumpeters like Cramer who spout out garbage just to have an audience.
“Cannot see why the markets would have any confidence in this guy.”
Because he is telling them what they want to hear.
#57 Shore:Because he is telling them what they want to hear.
True. And sooner rather than later, the markets will realize that.
[48] rayc
Not surprised Dorian sat. Pretty only gets you so far. Dorian was ridiculously overpriced to begin with. Too small even for our small family, and when you add the au pair and the new baby, forget it. Also no central air, old mechanical, and very litte space overall.
Besides, the entire neighborhood gets parked up during the day by h.s. students. So much for the bucolic side street.
Bi-tard,
Thanks genius. I appreciate all of your investment advice. Worked like a charm for me with SRS. Keep up the good work.
i think $515 is too much for dorian! It stares over the armory for goodness sake..they move huge trucks at 5am on weekends!
OT:
DM tix on sale for MSG at 10 AM.
U.S. Feb. capacity utilization 70.9% vs 71.9% in Jan.
Read: Overcapacity, room for layoffs
If I’m reading this correctly (and I may not be) that’s a lot of over capacity, isn’t it?
FXP is a little lower than where I would like it to be, but SRS is looking fine. I have had a buy in for one more piece of FXP at 28 forever. Didn’t think I would get it.
nom, about
re Dorian
I agree wholeheartedly – overpriced, especially when sales like 41 carol ($500k) and 18 Carol ($530) are happening. Both of those are up by me, both were in good shape, both are assessed significantly higher than Dorian.
But at least it sold for less ($53k less) than 2004. Baby steps Bob.
There’s a glut of 55+ communities in NJ? Did we suddenly run out of older boomers and seniors?
Sorry for being silent for so long. I am usually lurking since I have so much work to do.
In Maryland we have a glut of 55+ communities and most of them are petitioning the state to remove the “senior” requirement. It is really starting to weigh on them since they have huge vacancies in these communities. Other then state requirements, they need to have the bi-laws changed in the community which often requires a vote.
I heard a piece on NPR this morning about forclosures still going up but this time they are unrelated to bad mortgages. The guy from Realty Trac was talking and he said that historically you could put regional maps of unemployment next to forclosures and they would line up pretty well. Over the last few years they didn’t line up because they were comming from bad mortgages. Now they are comming back into line.
Areas with high unemployment are correlating again with forclosures and shortsales.
They were discussing Oregon in particular but the correlation between unemployment and forclosure is somethign I hadn’t looked at before. Maybe unemployment is now the dominant factor again?
Also on NPR was a discussion about tent cities that are popping up in San Fransico and Portland. They are starting to see a sharp rise of middle class tenants in these cities.
Welders, Truck Drivers, and Auto Sales were some of the examples they gave in the piece. All hadn’t worked for about a year and are now homeless living on a river north of San Fran.
North of SFO? That is Marin County’s problem. Nothing wrong in FSO, well, except for the aggressive homeless living in the parks.
tosh,
Should be closer to 80%.
See the chart courtesy of CR:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/Sb5UsYbfMPI/AAAAAAAAEzA/ISijPdOZMrk/s1600-h/CapacityUtilFeb09.jpg
making the rounds……
The Americans With No Abilities Act
Washington , DC – (Dateline February 26, 2009)
President Barack Obama and the Democrat controlled Congress are considering sweeping legislation that will provide new benefits for many Americans. The Americans With No Abilities Act (AWNAA) is being hailed as a major legislative goal by advocates of the millions of Americans who lack any real skills or ambition.
“Roughly 50 percent of Americans do not possess the competence and drive necessary to carve out a meaningful role for themselves in society,” said California Senator Barbara Boxer – Democrat. “We can no longer stand by and allow People of Inability (POI) to be ridiculed and passed over. With this legislation, employers will no longer be able to grant special favors to a small group of workers, simply because they have some idea of what they are doing.”
In a Capitol Hill press conference, House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi – Democrat, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid – Democrat – pointed to the success of the U.S. Postal Service, which has a long-standing policy of providing opportunity without regard to performance. Approximately 74 percent of postal employees lack any job skills, making this agency the single largest U.S. employer of Persons of Inability.
Private-sector industries with good records of non-discrimination against the Inept include retail sales (72%), the airline industry (68%), and home improvement warehouse stores (65%). At the state government level, the Department of Motor Vehicles also has an excellent record of hiring Persons of Inability (63%).
Under AWNAA, more than 25 million mid-level positions will be created, with important-sounding titles but little real responsibility, thus providing an illusory sense of purpose and performance.
Mandatory non-performance-based raises and promotions will be given so as to guarantee upward mobility for even the most unremarkable employees. The legislation provides substantial tax breaks to corporations that promote a significant number of Persons of Inability into middle-management positions, and gives a tax credit to small and medium-sized businesses that agree to hire one clueless worker for every two talented hires.
Finally, the AWNAA contains tough new measures to make it more difficult to discriminate against the non-abled, banning, for example, discriminatory interview questions such as, “Do you have any skills or experience that relate to this job?”
“As a Non-abled person, I can’t be expected to keep up with people who have something going for them,”said Mary Lou Gertz, who lost her position as a lug-nut twister at the GM plant in Flint , Michigan , due to her inability to remember rightey tightey, lefty loosey. “This new law should be real good for people like me,” Gertz added. With the passage of this bill, Gertz and millions of other untalented citizens will finally see a light at the end of the tunnel.
Said Senator Dick Durbin (Democrat-IL), “As a Senator with no abilities , I believe the same privileges that elected officials enjoy ought to be extended to every American with no abilities. It is our duty as lawmakers to provide each and every American citizen, regardless of his or her inadequacy, with some sort of space to take up in this great nation and a good salary for doing so.”
#69 – Thanks Grim. That’s a pretty scary chart. Especially if the capacity utilization is indicative of more lay-offs and closings to come.
[70] leftwing
That is hysterical.
Sadly, it is not far removed from the truth (though not just for this admin. and porkulus bills, but historically).
But I am a bit surprised that someone with a liberal sock would participate in denigrating the ably-challenged. I thought that this was the province of us selfish, unfeeling, uncaring, conservatives?
On that note, must get back to work, cuz someone has to pay for the bailouts.
interesting graph in the article:
“Tracking the recession: Iowa, N.D. victims of investment fraud”
http://www.stateline.org/live/details/story?contentId=384374
Poor renters!!!…. I guess renters are not immune to fioreclosure crisis!
Corporate meltdown leaves renters in limbo
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29697413/
“Future shock: Can cities pay for pensions?
Municipalities short on plans”
http://www.uticaod.com/news/x108126501/Future-shock-Can-cities-pay-for-pensions
“The Rise of the Underground”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123698646833925567.html
-it’s taking on a new role as one of the last safe havens in a darkening financial climate, forcing analysts to rethink their views.
kettle,
u might find this interesting:
http://tinyurl.com/dx66tk
SAs
Grim/Clot:
About the REO, does it make sense to get a buyer’s agent to bid for about 450k [15% below list price] (assuming that there is no show stopper — mostly psychological… we have a toddler, and the safety gate in one of the pictures caught my attention).
That number is a “safe” budget for us — we may be able to afford more, but that would put us under pressure of maintaining two incomes [or having to face foreclosure, if, god forbid, something tragic were to happen].
Clot, do you think you are too closely linked to the house to represent a (cheap) buyer? [assuming it is even worth the agent’s time to forward such a bid to the bank]…
S
sastry (51)-
The owner actually HELOC’d the house after her husband died and she learned that she had cancer. She lived on the money.
I was also told by her mom that the entire HELOC was fraudulent, and that her daughter didn’t even tell her she’d done it until months later.
sastry (78)-
“Closely linked”? Are you serious? It’s a house. The people I liked- my former clients- are long gone.
IMO, at 450K, you are wasting your time. Even if the bank were to accept your offer, they will shop it, and someone else will outbid you.
Can’t get tomorrow’s price today.
sastry (78)-
I have a longstanding promise to Grim not to represent people on this blog. No can do.
Why is everyone so appalled about Bernie Madoff but not about AIG bonuses and a few thousand Wall St. Execs? Why isn’t there a chain of hand-cuffed doucheb*gs on the news every night? It’s only because they could put a spot light on one person, so they made an example of Madoff. It’s easy enough for the f*cking idiot masses to understand.
Clot:
I fully understand your agreement with Grim…
“Closely linked” part, I guess I was thinking too much off base.
The HELOC part, at least the owner got something from the house.
Could you or Grim recommend a Buyer’s agent? I can understand if it is beyond the charter of the blog. As is it, I got a lot from this blog already…
S
Why don’t you have Grim write up your offer? He’s a member of GSMLS.
Gary
I have info for you. Expect an email from me tonight with contact info. Do you use a Mac? Apparently, there’s a problem with Macs and their site.
” Why isn’t there a chain of hand-cuffed doucheb*gs on the news every night? ”
Gary,
I for one would be pleased to see nightly shots of people in leg irons.
I’m holding out for the televised, Ceaucescu-style executions.
Interesting experience:
We started looking around for land or housing to park some money. Because of a connection to the area, we looked at a couple places in Kansas. It is interesting, in an area with a lower cost of living, and far less going for it in terms of access to recreation and culture, the homes struck us as more expensive than in the NJ/NY area for similar properties.
Sorry if this was posted. I just saw it.
Roubinator, 3-14-09:
“It is déjà vu all over again. We have already seen this Groundhog Day movie at least six times over and over again in the last year or so: the market starts to rally – this time around about 8% in a week – and the chorus of optimists starts to say that this is the bottom of the economic and financial crisis and that we are at the beginning of a sustained stock market rally that signals the true end of this bear market.
Even before the latest bear market rally started last week I wrote the following on March 2nd:
Of course you cannot rule out another bear market sucker’s rally in 2009, most likely in Q2 or Q3: the drivers of this rally will be the improvement in second derivatives of economic growth and activity in US and China that the policy stimulus will provide on a temporary basis: but after the effects of tax cut will fizzle out in late summer and after the shovel-ready infrastructure projects are done the policy stimulus will slack by Q4 as most infrastructure projects take year to be started let alone finished; similarly in China the fiscal stimulus will provide a fake boost to non-tradeable productive activities while the traded sector and manufacturing continues to contract. But given the severity of macro, household, financial firms and corporate imbalances in the US and around the world this Q2 or Q3 sucker’s market rally will fizzle out later in the year like the previous 5 ones in the last 12 months.
And, as we pointed out here on March 9th:
I have also argued that another bear market rally may occur some time in Q2 or Q3 of this year and may end up like the previous six. Indeed in the last 12-18 every time something dramatic happens (that leads to a lower stock market low) and the government reacts to it with a more aggressive policy action optimists come out and say that this is the dramatic and cathartic event that suggests that a bottom has been reached: they said that after Bear Stearns, after the collapse and rescue of Fannie and Freddie, after Lehman, after AIG, after the TARP was announced, after the G7 communique’, after the $800 fiscal stimulus package was announced last November (the onset of the latest sucker’s rally).
And after a while markets are again “shocked shocked” (to paraphrase the French police inspector in Casablanca) to discover that the macro news are much worse than expected in the US and abroad, that earnings news are much worse than expected not just for financials, realtors, home builders and consumer discretionary firms but also for most other non-financial firms, and that financial markets/firms shocks/news are worse than expected.
And indeed, as predicted, in the last week another bear market rally has started in earnest; the latest rally is just a dead cat bounce.”
Kansas is flat, boring, hot as hell in Summer, freezing in Winter; and other than the two college towns, it appears to be inhabited by toothless serial killers.
If your wife is from Kansas, my apologies to her. :)
Another day of Dow up, SRS up.
That’s the kind of decoupling I like!
lostinny,
Thank you, look forward to your email! No, I don’t use a Mac.
#88 – I hadn’t checked out Kansas. I had looked into Oklahoma, Wyoming, Tenn, Ohio, Montana and a bunch of other places in the 2k4 – 2k6 time-span. I was just comparison shopping on cost of living/bored. It was a mixed bag. Some of them were very expensive all things considered (Montana, I’m looking at you) some pretty cheap (Tenn & parts of Ohio had some very inexpensive areas that looked ok)
That said I didn’t know a lot about the towns I was looking at other than what you can find on google. So take my comments with some salt.
However, I did learn a few things;
-People in the central parts of the country really, really like wood paneling.
-Many of the homes were empty.
-There are some gorgeous four square houses in Ohio for (comparatively) little money.
-I probably don’t fit in very well outside of the NYC area.
Shore Guy says:
March 16, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Interesting experience:
We started looking around for land or housing to park some money. Because of a connection to the area, we looked at a couple places in Kansas. It is interesting, in an area with a lower cost of living, and far less going for it in terms of access to recreation and culture, the homes struck us as more expensive than in the NJ/NY area for similar properties.
Are you looking for “upscale” properties??
Because prices for starter homes KS is about 1/3 of NJ prices -literally.
100K 3 bedroom/2bath home in decent shape in surburbs there is reality .
May be the problem is that NJ have too much “upscale” properties??
So they are getting very cheap? (of course you are going to be stuck with NJ taxes forever! – until you sell)
take a close look at Bernanke during the interview….everytime he was asked a direct question, he moved his eyes slightly to the left right before he gave the answer (an indication of someone lying to you) and would then proceed to answer. but to easy questions like his childhood he looked straight at the host when answering….
you can tell a lot by looking at someone’s eye reactions when you want to tell whether they are lying or not.
to me, Bernanke covered it up pretty well….tried to be even keel and spoke clearly but the eye movements tell me that he has no idea when the recession is going to end and i even think he thinks we may be headed for depression from his body language and answers.
just my two cents….
oh, also, he is the one who said that we wouldnt be going into a recession to begin with! thats a clue that he has no clue to what is realy going on….
Clot,
No. No Kansans here. Both Lawrence and Manhattan are nice enough spots but the influx of “outsiders” to the college community, plus the cultural advantages of those towns over most other places in the non-KC metro area, has bid-up housing prices in those areas beyond any reasonable level — especially with respect to incomes out there. Part of the driver, believe it or not, seems to be salaries of assistant coaches at the universities.
In the KC area, Mission Hills has an awful lot going for it, and a price tag to match.
ok, here she is so far…
NY Metro Price / NJ Median Income
versus a new chart that shows
NY Metro Price / Adjusted NJ Median Income (adjustment includes subtracting total credit per us homeowner from med income)
By removing the credit, it shows how severely prices seperated from med income.
http://tinyurl.com/d8ks9s
a veto and kettle1 collaboration
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/17/business/17aigweb.html?ref=business
oh, also, he is the one who said that we wouldnt be going into a recession to begin with! thats a clue that he has no clue to what is realy going on….
add to that “Subprime is contained” and “maximum writedowns would cap at $100B.”
at this point Bi came out with his notorious statement that there will be no more writedowns.
sometimes I wonder if Bi and Ben are one of the same
Tosh,
Montanans got killed by Californians rushing in and biding-up the price of land and houses. Housing costs in MT are out of sight.
Make,
Are you asking the question: “Is Ben bi?”
lost
Where can I find out more about the Mac issue?
#100 – That’s what I had figured. It also explains all of the condos, which struck me as odd when I first saw them. I kept thinking, “Why would you build a condo in a state that big, with so few people”?
This was in late 2k4, when I wasn’t sure about a bubble yet but knew something odd had happened to RE in the country.
A relative of mine in Portland, OR area told me there are now foreclosure bus tours in Portland.
#100 Shore Guy,
I’ve heard the same thing during the run up about AZ and Portland, OR. Even heard Californians would bid 10% or more over list cause that’s what they do in CA.
51
Either that or they are staying here
http://www.selectopedia.org/video/business/tent-city-keeps-growing-in-southern-california.html
103 Renter
It just has to do with using a certain website. No big deal.
BO , going for the aig big boys
oh, boy
What we are looking for, at least this month:
A few acres, in an area not prone to drought, on a river, large lake, bay, sound, or a smaller parcen at at least 30′ above mean high tide near right by the ocean. What we are finding is that as the economy heads south, more and more people seem to view their land as a lifeboat (life yacht?) that will rescue them from everything and provide easy living for years to come.
I may rethink my aversion to Au if this keeps up. I really don’t care if the value drops 50% over the short-to-medium term, as I do not see us possibly buying more than 30-40 oz, at first anyway. I am starting to lose faith in the ability of the B.O. Administration’s ability to address the problem without 1930’s-like pain.
“BO , going for the aig big boys”
Or pretending to, anyway. Unless they push congress to pass a tax bill setting a 100% tax rate for any bonus paid to employees of any firm that received bailout money, their “outrage” befits Louie in Cassablanca: “Shocked. Shocked!”
Sheila and Uncle Ben on 60 Minutes, Obama on Jay Leno tonite, we got the whole dog and pony show going on. This smells of pure desparation.
This rally will last a little while longer, until the start of earnings season and then its, “look out below”.
BO going for AIG is just a sham. The bonus money is peanuts compared to the big picture of the overall bailout. They are defecting attention elsewhere while they attempt to make it look like the economy is making a comeback and raising taxes in order to do their social engineering (redistribution of wealth). It is all smoke and mirrors.
Shore, we also view our property as a lifeboat. Not for an easy living but a safe place in case conditions get real bad.
‘Medieval’ U.S. Law Firm Pay Structure Buckles Under Recession
March 16 (Bloomberg) — U.S. law firms, including Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP, Shearman & Sterling LLP and WolfBlock LLP, are abandoning tradition as they cut costs in the deepening recession by imposing merit pay, slashing salaries and generally putting an end to decades of associate entitlement.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601127&sid=aN3ilGkywFZg&refer=law
Grim unmod 114
State Senator Vince Fumo (D-South Philly) found guilty on all counts in federal corruption trial.
I think this woman waited on me at Starbucks the other day:
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/popup?id=2284437
Municipal Pension Time Bomb Set to Go Off
Think back to when property prices were going through the roof, personal spending was being turbocharged by ultra-cheap and seemingly limitless credit, and few could resist the siren song of consumerism.
Under the circumstances, you would have thought that municipal authorities would have had more than enough to gorge on in their quest to squander taxpayer funds.
Yet even with all the revenues that were flowing in from real estate, income, and sales taxes, it was not enough. Short-sighted and corrupt politicians also decided that it would be a great idea to make all sorts of open-ended commitments to a key constituency: state and local government employees.
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2009/03/municipal-pension-time-bomb-set-to-go-off.html
But can he braid it?
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/popup?id=2284437&contentIndex=1&page=2&start=false
Jim has one. Now Shore wants one. Seems like Nompounds are gaining in popularity.
Would that I had that kind of disposable income.
Shore, what you want is going to be ridulously expensive nearly everplace on the eastern seaboard. However, might I suggest the MD eastern shore?
This just beggs for comment:
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/popup?id=2284437&contentIndex=1&page=5&start=false
lostinny says:
March 16, 2009 at 9:51 am
OT:
DM tix on sale for MSG at 10 AM.
lost: Borgata presale is on…
Clotpoll says:
March 16, 2009 at 11:28 am
sastry (78)- I have a longstanding promise to Grim not to represent people on this blog. No can do.
clot: what a load of horse$hit…..you represent yourself here…..
The whole pension issue, is a powderkeg. Absent BK, t is hard to see how any state with a large public-employee base and generous benefits will escape huge tax increases to pay for retirement benefits.
We looked at a sound-front house (about 125′ of frontage, and 1/3-12/acre lot, with full bulkheading and deepwater dock) in NC. It needed work and was small, maybe 1,500 sq. ft. It is in a town where the median selling price is in the $400,000 range. Its taxes: under $1,000.
119. Comrade
I have a friend who is planning on retiring from USPS in five years. He is looking at western PA. He says the property/houses are inexpensive compared to the east, much fewer people, and there isn’t a water issue (as in lack of).
Nom,
I have given thought to the eastern shore. My concern there is unease about the financial drain that is Baltimore, not knowing enough about the public-employee pension and benefit liabilities in Md, and the excess money from DC flowing into the eastern shore for weekend places, bidding prices up. Also, the MD ocean beach communities make Seaside look like the paragon of button-down elegance, hard as that may be to believe.
“Nompounds”
“Nompounds”
Clot, thanks…
I took the liberty of calling Grim to request for advice. No good deed goes unpunished.
S
“Nompounds”
We are looking less for a nompound than some place, preferably raw land (lower taxes) to stash some wealth for when inflation kicks in down the road.
Shore,
Have you considered buying outside of the US?
Cross PA off my list:
“In Pennsylvania, the state employees and public teachers pension funds both have warned that employer contribution rates could surge seven-fold from about 4% of payroll to 28%, starting in 2012. The Detroit police and fire pension plan might have to double employer contribution rates to 50% of payroll by 2011, according to the fund’s outside actuary.”
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2009/03/municipal-pension-time-bomb-set-to-go-off.html
122 Chifi
I see no tix for the Borgata. They did add a second show for MSG.
But VA might work”
” For public funds in worse financial shape, including funds in Connecticut, West Virginia and Indiana, due to stock-market declines liabilities exceed assets by 50% or higher, according to the center.
Some states may decide it is easier to cut public employee benefits than it is to raise taxes, especially during hard economic times. In the Virginia General Assembly, a bill would freeze the current pension plan starting in July and replace it with a 401(k) plan for all future hires.
“
Jim,
The only places I would consider buying outside the U.S. are old-line NATO countries and prices are insane in those countries too.
As much as we love Grenada, Belize, Dominica, and some other places, we are not so well off that we can afford to take a chance on the vagueries of the local governments. Also, in that part of the world, access to Federal Flood Insurance is a real plus, and that limits one to the USVI and PR. Both are a possibility. Unfortunately, the USVI seem to be in the process of being flooded by foreign investors looking for a place to stash some cash.
tosh (94)-
Don’t sell yourself short. Probably thousands of Dead Kennedys fans in TN.
“I probably don’t fit in very well outside of the NYC area.”
I don’t know about the rest of the HENRYs here, but I am beginning to feel like our efforts to accumulate some wealth by scrimping, saving, and living well-below our means may have ben for naught and we are at risk of watching it all evaporate.
make (100)-
I wish we could put a muzzle on both bi and Bergabe.
Clot, also, till your post about asking Grim, I was under the impression that Grim dealt only with NNJ. Fortunately, I was wrong.
Shore (119)-
Half man, half dog?
Clot…
My anti-Cramer buddy Don Harrold just suggested to short the Dow Ultra. This rally will probably be over in the next day or so.
Shore (121)-
Too bad we don’t have John here to crack wise on the lovely Svetlana.
Perhaps some posters can view that picture, and we can have a “respond like John” contest.
chi (123)-
In that case, I have an idiot for a client. Or an agent. Whatever.
Stu (141)-
I love Don Harrold. He is like a real-life Howard Beale.
Thanks for the tip. I’ll check his site.
Gotta love the way SRS is behaving. I smell breakout…and not just 1-2 days over $100.
From NakedCapitalism; Geithner’s TARP just like Paulson’s, both love overpayin’ for poison!
This would explain the rally…
Shore (134)-
If a 401K bill like Virginia’s hit the floor in Trenton, state employees would burn the capitol to the ground.
Which would save the rest of us the trouble.
#136 – I had seriously considered TN for a while too. I mean, Stax records was in Memphis, that says a lot! I had friends from the area who said it could be a very laid back place to live.
tosh (147)-
I’m from Memphis. It sucks.
Big growth industry there is bulldozing dilapidated, abandoned houses that banks refuse to foreclose. They have what is probably the most stringent law in the US requiring banks to take responsibility for abandoned homes that should be foreclosed.
been, even
Tosh (147)-
If you’re a Memphis/Stax fan, just know this: I spent a wasted year in my 20’s hanging out with Alex Chilton. Fortunately, he got involved with a project (a really bad band), and I was able to resume my life.
It’s one of the miracles of humanity that he’s still alive.
The question I have is, are there any states that are in areas with excellent fresh-water supplies and have not: over committed to public pensions and benefits, overborrowed for routine spending, under spent on maintenance of infrastructure?
“The Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1998 requires the Farm Service Agency(FSA) to offer for sale to Beginning Farmer/Rancher applicants certain farm inventory properties that have been determined suitable for FSA lending programs. ”
Does anyone have any experience with these types of sales and programs?
Shore,
Just looking at areas where fresh water will not be an issue either now or in the future will probably narrow your list quite a bit.
Children by the million wait for Alex Chilton
[151] shore
These, and others, are a lot of the same issues I am considering.
For your concerns, the real issue is whether the state will impose ad valorem taxation on real property in the future. Right now, they typically don’t but in a pinch, all bets may be off. I think this is where you are going.
PA would be ideal were it not for Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and a history of political corruption that is better than NJ but not by a lot. For what you are asking, I would consider NH and Maine in that order. Neither have the overburden of a major urban permanent poverty clas. NH is virulently anti-tax but not near the ocean unless you consider its 11 mile coastline. ME is much more democratic, and has a history of “nanny state” tax and social legislation. Conversely, ME has a lot more property over which to spread any new burdens, and the towns are a lot more conservative than the state.
My only reason for not selecting ME and NH for a nompound is proximity. I would never get to use it, and I am against shelling out a ton of money solely for a lifeboat property.
Anyone looking for overseas USG property?
http://www.state.gov/obo/77074.htm
[151] shore
BTW, and FWIW, fresh water was a primary reason I am NOT looking in places like Utah, Montana or Idaho. It seems that any area with arable land doesn’t have water and vice versa.
Water is HUGE, and overlooked by many. One reason I like soundfront, bayfront land is one can always draw from there and create fresh water with reverse osmosis.
Flyover country.
If you have have a nasty drug or drink habit which helps you pass the time, are looking for the remote lifestyle a la “uni-bomber” or live in front of your teevee(s) (the b&W with sound sits on top of the color console that has blown speakers…), do your laundry in two loads in cold water with no bleach at your counsin Emmma’s house because your rent-to-own dryer was repo’d, or your weekly highlight is eating at Stevbob’s country cracklin’s where Stev (no e) plays his 5 string too close against the microphone covering all the songs you will hear in church next week (because you will be “discussed” if you don’t go to church three days MINIMUM)…
Then flyover country is for you.
It gets old.
&^%* quick.
Nom,
If you would like to see a photo of my ‘lifeboat’ ask Grim for my email address.
Jim
lostinny says:
March 16, 2009 at 1:56 pm
122 Chifi
I see no tix for the Borgata. They did add a second show for MSG.
http://ev6.evenue.net/cgi-bin/ncommerce3/ExecMacro/evenue/ev69/se/DisplayPromoList.d2w/report?linkID=global-borgata&RSRC=&RDAT=&caller=PR
This AIG bailout story is a red herring. The real story is the counter bailouts of GS, BAC, DB and tons of foreign banks.
Why are we bailing out “sophisticated” investors who did not take counterparty risk into account in their transactions?
#150 – I spent a wasted year in my 20’s hanging out with Alex Chilton.
Wow, you are certainly full of surprises… Come on, that had to have been kind of cool!
counter = counterparty
I think I have found my Nompound. Anyone with a boat, feel free to visit December through June:
https://rc.gsa.gov/ResourceCenter/PRHomePage/loadProperty.do?propId=12984
Yesterday I walked into two open houses at Plainsboro (Gentry). The traffic was unbelievable – people constantly walking in. It does not look like 2009, but still 2006. The realtor smiled ear to ear, saying “recession has not visited here”. I was shocked, as well as other visitors I was talking to.
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/01/emptied-north-dakota/bowden-text
161 Chifi
Thanks but that link isn’t working for me. Takes me to a page asking for a password.
[130] shore
Seems we are still working toward the same goal. The “nompound” (as I rebranded it, tho Kettle gets credit for calling it a compound in the first place) is intended to be a parcel with farmland and with the prospect of using an existing property for recreation/lifeboat, owned by a group of people rather than one person/family.
Spam properly called out the concept as difficult to bring to fruition, and I have not found many properties that fit the bill, though I am looking at one now.
A variant is to simply split off the farmland from the lifeboat. Thus, buy farmland in one location, and a ski house in another (using the same multiple ownership model).
Finally, you may ask, why multiple owners? Three reasons–one to make it affordable for the middle class (and to gain economy of scale); two, to permit more continual use of the lifeboat/recreation property; and three, tax reasons that I won’t get into here.
The sticking point? Putting together a group. Even if you find willing participants, the group would have to be structured carefully so that goals meshed, personalities didn’t get in the way, and future financial difficulties on someone’s part would not become a burden. Suffice it to say joint property ownership isn’t for everyone, and I plan to be very careful about who participates.
“Yesterday I walked into two open houses at Plainsboro (Gentry). The traffic was unbelievable – people constantly walking in. It does not look like 2009, but still 2006. The realtor smiled ear to ear, saying “recession has not visited here”. I was shocked, as well as other visitors I was talking to.”
This happens at the houses that are priced the lowest compared to their comps. I’ve seen it happen a lot the past 6 weeks. If you have a house that is priced 30k below similar homes in the area, everyone flocks to them. Usually, you find out why they are priced the way they are once you walk inside. Consequently, you’ll find that similar homes (at least from the outside view) that are priced above the houses attracting all the traffic, will have a small fraction of the visitors despite the fact that they are within walking distance of the other house. If a seller does price it right, it will attract attention. If someone listed their open house at 75k, I’m pretty sure you would have a few thousand people visiting it.
I never travel far without a little Big Star.
#166 – It does not look like 2009, but still 2006. The realtor smiled ear to ear, saying “recession has not visited here”.
Then we should expect to see pending sales pick up significantly in the coming months.
My recent obsession. acually relevant to our discussion. enjoy
Historical Unemployment In Relation to Today
http://www.scribd.com/doc/13282170/Unemployment-1930-s-vs-2000-s-Final
SAS,
thanks for the link
tosh (163)-
It was cool. Until it turned ugly. Everything around Alex turns ugly; it’s just a matter of when.
The guy was- and is- an incredible talent. He is also incredibly unstable.
spam (159)-
I will say this about Memphis: there are plenty of bars right next door to churches, so you don’t have to travel far to wet your whistle after you’ve fought off the Devil for another week.
#174 – The guy was- and is- an incredible talent. He is also incredibly unstable.
Ahh. I think I know the personality type you mean then.
[165] shore
Good luck getting anything to grow there.
And if the polar icecaps melt, well, better grow gills.
qqq09 says “Yesterday I walked into two open houses at Plainsboro (Gentry). The traffic was unbelievable – people constantly walking in”
im seeing same thing all over mercer county. prices are dropping though, check the sold comps.
qqq (176)-
There is a recession between that lady’s ears.
“The realtor smiled ear to ear, saying “recession has not visited here”.
179 is to 166.
Shore is veering toward the Waterworld solution.
Shore, it was a movie, dude. :)
tosh (176)-
I’d lay a dime to a dollar he’d be classified bipolar in a heartbeat.
Maybe he has been.
#172 toshiro:Then we should expect to see pending sales pick up significantly in the coming months.
Yeah and pigs fly, and snow in July around here too.
The two houses are priced close the the peak price (I think), around 610 – 625k range. Build in 1995, about 2200 square feet, overall decent house. I was just amazed that, regardless the current econimic condition and jogless rate, the foundamental still strong (at least at plainsboro). I don’t think I can bargain much off the OLP, after seeing so many visitors.
#170 Ben in the end it does to really say anything, with so little selling.
Maybe things are different in Plainsboro?
Here is another place, somewhat out of the way, for sale that is great for those who like cold:
https://rc.gsa.gov/ResourceCenter/PRHomePage/loadProperty.do?propId=9528
http://kotzpdweb.tripod.com/city/moving.html
#184 after seeing so many visitors.
Visitors are just that;visitors, nothing more.
I would focus on actual real buyers, and I woudl bid what you fell comfortbale bidding, if rejected, simply walk away. It is only 4 walls and a roof.
Also amazing as it sounds, I would bet that there are a fair amount of so called buyers out there who do not have a clue that things have changed until they actually go to get financing.
This is just too sick for words:
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/popup?id=2284437&contentIndex=1&page=25&start=false
#166 qqqThe realtor smiled ear to ear, saying “recession has not visited here”. I was shocked, as well as other visitors I was talking to.
I hope you guys did not take this clown seriously,and at elast oen fo you should have challenged her on that moronic statement. Stupidity should not be tolerated.
Here is another place, somewhat out of the way, for sale that is great for those who like cold:
https://rc.gsa.gov/ResourceCenter/PRHomePage/loadProperty.do?propId=9528
Attention All Shorties. From CR –
“Calculated Risk says:
Today, 2:26:01 PM
“All, there is rumor on the Street that the Government will not allow borrowing of shares – for short selling – of any shares they own.
I don’t know if this is credible – or just a rumor
best to all”
http://kotzpdweb.tripod.com/city/moving.html
Plainsboro is right next to the train line and close to Princeton. Many people works in NYC. Same for West-Winsor.
But still, while economy is in bad shape, the open house traffic was amazing. I couldn’t establish the link.
Victorian,
With Fedco becoming the largest equity holder in the U.S., it could be interesting.
#193… The West-Windsor Plainsboro schools are also top notch.
S
“Also amazing as it sounds, I would bet that there are a fair amount of so called buyers out there who do not have a clue that things have changed until they actually go to get financing.”
3b, I can vouch for that. I saw it happen last month to a couple. They wanted to buy a house because they thought they could sell it for 50k more than they were going to buy it for 5 years down the road. When the bank came in and appraised the house, they appraised it for 50k below the agreed upon purchase price and financing fell through. The sad part about this stupid Mexican standoff between buyers and sellers is that even if these delusional sellers wanted their fantasy prices, there is no realistic way for them to obtain them though financing. I honestly don’t understand how people are so short sighted. If anyone in 2006 panicked and sold something for 15% under what the perceived market value was at the time, they made out like fat cats. The same probably goes for anyone in 2007. And pretty soon, I’m positive that the result will be confirmed for 2008. At what point do sellers bite the bullet and come to grips with reality? I have to think that the time is this spring. While the housing market was crashing, people were still screaming “low unemployment” and positive GDP growth. That’s gone now. I don’t know what else they could possibly cling to. This whole situation is akin to giving someone an Indian arm burn until they scream uncle. I’m amazed that it’s taking this long.
Ben (196)-
Nobody ever went broke betting on the stupidity of the average American.
“The question I have is, are there any states that are in areas with excellent fresh-water supplies and have not: over committed to public pensions and benefits, overborrowed for routine spending, under spent on maintenance of infrastructure?”
Shore, if you are concerned about water, you should just buy a good filtration system and connect a barrel to your gutter. You’ll have all the water you need.
To #196:
I agree with you totally. The NJ market just had a crack, not crash. The slow leaking process is not what I expected and take way too long
Ben,
THat would not work in dust-bowl type conditions. I want water and lots of it. It is fun to play in and on too.
vic (191)-
Doesn’t seem to be fazing the people piling into SRS in the past hour.
Fcuk the gubmint if they try this. I can stay short longer than they can stay solvent!
Ahh, finally, a photo that demonstrates the pain of trying to buy RE in NJ:
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/popup?id=2284437&contentIndex=1&page=30&start=false
qqq09,
plainsboro/west windsor one of the top school districts in the state. if the surrounding towns are off 20-30% from peak, plainsboro ww is probably off 5%-10% from peak, based on what i’ve seen.
Check this one in west windsor, it sold for 350K in 2004 and they had an open house 1 month ago that required appointments, they drew a line of cars down the street.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/428-S-Post-Rd-West-Windsor-NJ-08550/39038255_zpid/
went into contract a week later.
funniest part of the day was when the neighbor dressed up as a bum and was harrassing the asians who tried to look at the house before us, my realtor says they do that all the time in that town.
qqq (199)-
BC Bob laid out the scenario months ago.
He called it Chinese Water Torture.
Me? I’m actually rather surprised at how fast the decline is moving.
RE is slow, boring and illiquid. Nothing good happens fast.
veto (203)-
I’d pay money to watch that show.
“funniest part of the day was when the neighbor dressed up as a bum and was harrassing the asians who tried to look at the house before us, my realtor says they do that all the time in that town.”
One problem which 55+ communities invites is what happens when a 58 yr old man marries a 35 yr old woman and they have kids (or she brings some into the marriage). Or adult children come back into the fold after college or hard luck, sometimes bringing youngins with them. Next thing you know the delinquent grandson is tearing up the putting greens with his dirtbike.
A friend’s parents lived in a 55+ community in Florida. He told me there was a suprising number of 38 yr old guys happily with women in their 50s and 60s.
Timmay! Timmay!
Looks like his calls to the PPT Carribbean desk are going to voicemail.
Those traders must be getting really good at cricket.
Re 199,
Must be bs as the market is moving the exact opposite.
jmac (206)-
Please refrain from posts like that without including some good links to m!lf p0rn.
#204 clot:Me? I’m actually rather surprised at how fast the decline is moving.
Me too!! And nobody has been more crankier about that fact then me;except for gary.
Actually that would be quite interesting if the government was to institute such a plan as the only bottom under the shares of AIG, C et al would be the taxpayer as there’d be no shorts to cover after the initial short squeeze.
I wouldn’t put it past these morons. Just saying the impact would be more negative than postive.
Dow is now negative, huh? How can it be?
HE (211)-
To the gubmint, anything that gives the taxpayer a good, old-fashioned reaming is a good thing.
Shore (212)-
It certainly couldn’t be declining earnings, no visibility, a zombie banking system and a complete lack of gubmint leadership.
Could it?
No way a short ban on gubmint owned stocks pass. The gubmint will never be able to unnationalize. For example, who would buy C or AIG knowing that the moment the ownership of the company transfers from the public to the private sector, the voice of the market (shorts) will hammer it down to nothing.
The law of unintended consequences is ready to rear it’s ugly head once again.
%67 off of asking price in Tribeca. I still can’t afford it, but that is a big drop; from $8.9 to $2.9 mil in a year.
SRS gone parabolic.
Turns out SKF options are even more fun than SKF…
d2b (218)-
Smoking wet, I see…
grrr. missed my limit price…. always tomorrow. :(
sl
SL…Didn’t get my FXP 28 either. Plenty of time left.
Stu,
Will this go in the same basket as the $37 FXP shares?
Solid strategy.
Zieba…
Talk to me in 12 months. You have the same patience that Bi and most other financial losers have here. Go send in your money to Gorilla Trades. I’m sure that TD and E-Trade love ya as well.
And Zeiba…I have some FXP in the 60s as well. I’m not worried the least bit.
But go on timing the market. I’m sure it is working perfectly for you.
Mortgage fraud reports up 26 percent
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090316/mortgage_fraud_report.html
Monday March 16, 3:50 pm ET
WASHINGTON (AP) — The mortgage industry, applying far more scrutiny after a tidal wave of defaults, reported a record number of mortgage fraud incidents last year, with Rhode Island making its first appearance as the nation’s top fraud hot spot.
—
The increase came as lenders dramatically tightened their standards, making it more difficult for borrowers to qualify for home loans without large down payments, solid credit and proof of their incomes.
John Carney, today:
“Bernanke’s approach is premised on the idea that there will be a crisis if you don’t rescue a failing firm. But there’s no evidence for that. In fact, Bernanke’s approach probably makes the problem worse. If bank runs were caused by an inability of depositors to distinguish between healthy and unhealthy firms, Bernanke’s approach is actually creating this same confusion.
“The market knows when a firm isn’t sound,” Schwarts told William Cohan in a separate interview. “And if the Fed didn’t behave as if every failing firm is too big to fail, then it would permit the exit of firms that weren’t really viable and the market would recognise this as a just decision. It’s not the job of the Fed to be intervening to help such firms. People are knowledgeable. They knew that there were troubles with Lehman.”
“If they’re going to go into the business of rescuing every failing firm,” Schwartz said, “we won’t have a capitalist system . . . People are responsible for the decisions they make. If they’ve made wrong decisions, lost money and don’t have the funds to operate, well, it’s time to leave the market. And that’s what the Fed’s responsibility is, not to shore up firms that have no reason to continue.”
Way back in October we described this approach as fighting the last depression while ushering in the next one. Unfortunately and depressingly, it seems that Bernanke is immune to evidence or argument on this subject.”
224#, what? fxp at 60s? thats 50% off. i would have jumped out the window already.
bi (227)-
Go ahead and jump. There’s still time.
“…i would have jumped out the window already.”
I believe what we are seeing now is the “spring-summer” selling season where everyone is looking to either get out of their house or get into a house since school is going to be over soon. My cousin is a loan processor and she tells me that quite a few deals fall through the financing part. The housing crash has barely started in New Jersey. If you REALLY need to see how bad things could get look into Florida.
I am seeing the same few POS houses in East Rutherford being listed for more than 400k and it makes you wonder if the “recession-depression to be” has reached NJ yet.
My recommendation. Wait for the October “suprise” or when the Obama honeymoon is over. The October RE season has MUCH better buying deals. Over the last couple of months we are experiencing a constant bleeding of NJ, NY High paying jobs. Jobs which could never come back.
Buyers…be patient.
Shore,
If you buy on the coast make sure you take the high ground.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29718962/wid=18298287
Think you’re having a bad day?:
BAGHDAD — Police say an Iraqi soccer player has been shot dead just as he was about to kick what could have been the tying goal in a weekend game south of Baghdad.
Police Maj. Muthanna Khalid says a striker from the Buhairat amateur team was facing only the goalie during a Sunday match in Hillah when a supporter of the rival Sinjar club shot him in the head in the final minute of play.
Sinjar was leading 1-0 when the shooting occurred. Khalid said a spectator was arrested.
More Iraqis are turning out for sports events now that security is improving. Major matches in Baghdad are heavily guarded but security in amateur games in smaller cities is often lax.
i was wondering if anyone could explain the $8,000 first time home buyers tax credit. While getting our preapproval, the agent told us that it might not be for us b/c we have atleast 20% down, and our closing fees…he said if we utilized it, then next year we’d be looking for deductions..and it might not pay for us to use it. He said it was for those that don’t have the cash. Could someone please explain this…i am not savy in the tax world. Realize that i probably need a sitdown with our accountant.
“2. Right Question. Wrong Inquisitor.
“Is this America — when you do what your government asks you to do and then retroactively you also have additional conditions?”
Wells Fargo (WFC) Chairman Richard Kovacevich
Ah yes, those evil “retroactive additional conditions.” How dare the government impose retroactive additional conditions! Where is the outrage?!
Everyone knows that, in a capitalistic society, only banks, like Wells Fargo, should be able to impose retroactive additional conditions; such as bumping up credit card interest rates on any of their customers whose credit score has decreased, or demanding additional collateral for existing loans, or raising ATM fees, charging more for paying bills with paper checks, increasing the minimum balance threshold on “free checking” accounts.
After all, imposing retroactive additional conditions is actually what it means to be a bank; that’s essentially the business model. And just because the government has spent a little more than $1 trillion of taxpayer money in direct investments in banks and on purchases of corporate and agency debt, we shouldn’t get the idea we can suddenly adopt the “retroactive additional conditions” business model.
Easy, killer. Only the “best and the brightest” have what it takes to run that show.
Is this America? It’s a good question. But if it’s being asked by a banker, it’s being asked by the wrong person.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/21655
To #232:
I think you were mislead. 8K tax credit is for anyone who is a new buyer. It does have income limitation – phasing out starting 150K income. There is no down-payment restrictions.
qqq09… thanks. we’ll follow up on it.
Well it seems age restriction removal bill passed NJ senate today.
S2577 Permits conversion of age-restricted housing units to non-age-restricted housing units and modifies laws concerning affordable housing. *
Passed Senate
2/23/2009 Introduced in the Senate, Referred to Senate Economic Growth Committee
2/26/2009 Reported from Senate Committee with Amendments, 2nd Reading
3/16/2009 Passed by the Senate (21-14)
Complete Bill text available at,
http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2008/Bills/S3000/2577_I1.HTM
“Shore,
If you buy on the coast make sure you take the high ground.”
On barrier islands, we have been looking at lots that are at aboput 25′ above sea level and on pilings.
The problem is, there are not very many places on the east coast, especiall south of NJ, that meet that standard.
Why ending mark to market is a joke:
“The problem with bank debt is that the regulators along with the banks never properly applied the fact that the more debt you create, the harder it would be to support that debt and collect on that debt. Now there is so much debt the amount of private capital to buy that debt is insufficient, at least at the price the banks want to sell it at.
It is a flawed argument that the debt is worth more than the market wants to pay for it. How much the debt is eventually worth is a function of default rates, the level of income being produced by the economy, and the value of the dollar. From what we see now of the economy, default rates will get worse not better; but perhaps it is because there is so much debt that the economy is getting worse. There is simply not enough real income being generated by the economy to support the debt or to support wishful default rates.
That is all incorporated in the current price it would take to sell the debt today, which is much lower than where banks have it valued and where the government wants us to believe that it can be sold. Once again they will cajole taxpayers into believing this is a good deal to buy it at higher prices, but it will result in a much lower value of the dollar or worse for our children.
Citibank (C) and JPMorgan (JPM) leaked that they are going to make money this quarter. They are going to show profits by 1. not having to write-down assets further due to looser mark to market application and 2. they’re being handed money by the government by being allowed to short the 2-year Treasury bond at a low interest rate and take the cash and buy government-guaranteed Fannie Mae (FNM) paper at a higher interest rate. This “carry” trade is being subsidized by the US taxpayer and is costing us “money” every day.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/21662
Jersey towns should open housing for all ages
SG,
Age-restricted housing seems incredibly discriminatory to me. Age discrimination isn’t tolerated in the workplace, but it’s welcomed at home?
I don’t understand.
I’d like nothing more than to see age-restricted housing outlawed as discrimination.
I am not too far from this house that’s listed for under $50,000. (no, did not miss a zero):
http://www.trfrealty.com/index.php?action=listingview&listingID=467
Just thought I had to share!
and oh, it was -40F wind chill last week.
That’s $10k per acre
Have there been any lawsuits related to age restricted housing as unfairly discriminatory? Could it be argued that it’s not legitimately related to any municipal interest? Is “keeping property taxes low” a legitimate municipal interest? Interest questions to look into when I get a moment…
SEC fights for its jobs rather than DO its job.
and you think they are here for you?
ha ha ha…
“SEC Calls For More Funds To Avert Cuts In Operations”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/11/AR2009031101715.html?hpid=sec-business
SAS
wait till they take your pension funds & 401k.
I’ve got lawn chairs for those fireworks.
“Experts: Financial crisis threatens security”
http://www.armytimes.com/news/2009/03/military_threats_financialcrisis_031609w/
Kudlow is talking about mustard seeds growing again. Sees positive signs out there.
Simply unbelieveable. You would think after all the Crammer/Stewart/CNBC controversey Kudlow would tone it down,
and not continue on with the same reckless cheerleading.
very interesting….
Even A.I.G.’s own independent directors haven’t been told which of the counterparties were paid, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter who requested anonymity because of confidentiality agreements. Such secrecy raised hackles because the insurance claims were paid off in full, even though widespread defaults on the underlying debt have not occurred. Why, many people wonder, did the Fed make A.I.G.’s counterparties whole on losses that have not happened yet? Why didn’t it force these financial companies to close out the contracts at a discount, making them take what is known on Wall Street as a “haircut”? Robert Arvanitis, chief executive of Risk Finance Advisors in Westport, Conn., and an expert in insurance, speculated that the United States was afraid that A.I.G.’s foreign bank counterparties would suffer large hits to their capital cushions, the amount they must set aside in case of losses.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/business/15gret.html
very interesting….
Even A.I.G.’s own independent directors haven’t been told which of the counterparties were paid, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter who requested anonymity because of confidentiality agreements. Such secrecy raised hackles because the insurance claims were paid off in full, even though widespread defaults on the underlying debt have not occurred. Why, many people wonder, did the Fed make A.I.G.’s counterparties whole on losses that have not happened yet? Why didn’t it force these financial companies to close out the contracts at a discount, making them take what is known on Wall Street as a “haircut”? Robert Arvanitis, chief executive of Risk Finance Advisors in Westport, Conn., and an expert in insurance, speculated that the United States was afraid that A.I.G.’s foreign bank counterparties would suffer large hits to their capital cushions, the amount they must set aside in case of losses.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/business/15gret.html
These are some big mustard seeds!
FASB Moves Toward Giving Banks More Flexibility on Fair-Value
The Financial Accounting Standards Board, pressured by lawmakers to change the fair-value rule blamed for worsening the financial crisis, proposed permitting companies to use “significant judgment” in valuing assets.
Companies would be able to apply the revised rule to their first-quarter financial statements, FASB Chairman Robert Herz said today during a meeting at the U.S. accounting rulemaker’s Norwalk, Connecticut, headquarters. The board is set to vote on the proposal April 2, after a 15-day public comment period.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ar8GMXGDnlws
Vic,
So they will go back to something between mark-to-market and mark-to-make believe.
When that doesn’t work I think the gubmint is just going to give everyone a million dollars and tell us we’re rich.
#252 victorian:significant judgment” in valuing assets.
Yes, the same significant judgement that priced these turds in the first place.
What has me perplexed is why did the market sell off on this news? Classic case of sell the news?
RentL0rd,
Actually, if I could find a bit of quality acreage in MN, IA, etc, that a local farmer wanted to rent for cropland or pasture, I would be interested in buying it.
“What has me perplexed is why did the market sell off on this news?”
Did yu ever want, or at least THINK you wanted, something? Then, when you get it, or see that you are likely to get it, you come to the realization that it is not all that great after all?
Perhaps that is where we were today.
3b (249)-
Kudlow is a walking public service ad against the long-term mental health effects of doing tons of cocaine.
shore (257)-
Like the first bite into a turd sandwich.
Australia, late to the party as usual
http://www.smh.com.au/national/red-alert-on-jobless-hot-spots-20090316-8zy4.html
#258 clot
Is losing your hearing another side effect? Why is he always shouting when he talks?
Hearing loss occurs more with heavy abuse of narcotics. Tooth loss occurs frequently with heavy cocaine use.
Lawrence Kudlow is a great American and that’s why he was not attacked by Stewart and “That One”. Kudlow appears in no videos used by Stewart because Stewart knows that he’s untouchable. That damn liberal, Steve Liesman could definitely be taken down a peg or two, but Stewart probably likes him because he supports “That One”.
Friday, Gibbs gushed that he enjoyed the damn show and he knows damn well he was also speaking for “That One”. This damn attack on Cramer and CNBC was strictly a White House operation done through a damn surrogate. This smacks of a watergate type of operation and there needs to be a damn investigation about how Stewart did this and why he didn’t attack Liesman and Faber. Something stinks like hell-as a matter of fact it smells like Chicago
Clot,
I have to admit that I was thinking more in terms of a product or date, but, I suppose the reasoning holds.
Corzine Invites Budget Feedback on Facebook
TRENTON, N.J. (AP) — “What’s on your mind?”
Gov. Jon S. Corzine is inviting New Jerseyans to share that thought with him on Facebook.
The governor on Monday said citizens are welcome to post “constructive and realistic” ideas on his $29.8 billion budget proposal on his Facebook page or the governor’s office Web site.
Corzine said he’s “interested in what people have to say and taking some time to answer their questions.”
Critics of the Corzine budget say he is penalizing middle class taxpayers by eliminating some property tax rebates and the property tax deduction on future state income tax returns.
Suggestions may be posted on Corzine’s Facebook page at:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Jon-Corzine/40803443433
http://www.1010wins.com/Corzine-Invites-Budget-Feedback-on-Facebook/4029807
Would like to talk more guys, but I TIVOd 24 and now I have GG up and ready to view.
Anybody hear about some kind of financial problems on Wall St and with the government? I thought our new President fixed all that. Whatever…
while the public “wall of shame” isn’t something anyone would care about …
not being able to register your car without paying back taxes would certainly wake up a lot of people
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2009-03-16-amnesty_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
buddy’s law firm in DC laid off 25 last week. he lost his secretary. he said most of the casualties were guys who had been there 6 months or a year.
they had had cuts in other branches, but his only now had to trim fat.
Shore Guy says:
March 16, 2009 at 2:11 pm
I don’t know about the rest of the HENRYs here, but I am beginning to feel like our efforts to accumulate some wealth by scrimping, saving, and living well-below our means may have ben for naught and we are at risk of watching it all evaporate.
not totally. but buying a place and watching that large “safe money” dwindle rather rapidly to a much less comfortable #, which would boot us out of prestigious HENRY status, is also unsettling.
you can’t win
sorry, BACK INTO henry status
Here is one approach:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/03/16/iowa-senator-says-aig-executives-resign-commit-suicide/
Yikes,
Alston?
Whew. Been a while since I posted here on the blog. Of course RE markets moving glacially slow. Finally glad my mom may agree w/ me about RE. She did a 1031 exchange at the beginning of the year for a commercial space in NY into a residential/commercial property in NY. She got the new property at a discount as the person was looking to unload. Fast forward a year and she looks like she has someone interested to buy the commercial space at about break even. I told her take the deal and run like a bandit. Stop rolling over and pay your taxes. She prefer to keep rolling it to pass onto us through her estate, but I told her better to have the cash now. Just don’t piss it away, either that or I may consider a 1031 in a particularly ravaged location like Florida, Midwest or maybe Calif. That’s the main RE issue I’ve been dealing with lately. Also my landlord recently cut my rent a substantial 10%+. I’m a happy camper!
Chinese Drywall
http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2009-03-16-chinese-drywall-sulfur_N.htm