From Prudential Fox & Roach:
Greater Philadelphia Housing Prices Decreased 7.4 Percent in the First Quarter of 2009; (no link)
reater Philadelphia region* median home sale prices decreased 7.4 percent to $199,000 in the first quarter of 2009, according to Prudential Fox & Roach, REALTORS’® HomExpert Market Report©. The median sale price in the first quarter of 2008 was $215,000. The region’s median sale price decreased 8.7 percent compared to the first quarter of 2007 when the median sale price stood at $218,000.
In the first quarter of 2009, the region saw 9,162 homes sold, a 26.2 percent decrease, compared to 12,408 homes sold in the first quarter of 2008. The region decreased 45.7 percent compared to the first quarter of 2007 when 16,883 homes sold. The average number of days a home remained on the market increased from 81 days in the first quarter of 2008 to 95 days in the first quarter of 2009. In the first quarter of 2007, homes remained on the market for an average of 70 days. Additionally, monthly average inventory for the first quarter of 2009 was 54,891 compared to 58,553 in the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 54,833 in 2007.
Delaware County performed the best in the region with a 3.1 percent decrease in median sale price in the first quarter of 2009. The county median price of homes sold fell from $194,950 in the first quarter of 2008 to $188,875 in the first quarter of 2009. Philadelphia County and Gloucester County median sale prices both fell 3.7 percent to $128,500 and $192,500 respectively. With a 16.3 percent decrease in median sale price, Mercer County saw the region’s largest decrease in the first quarter of 2009 falling to $220,000, compared to $262,825 in the first quarter of 2008. Burlington County saw the region’s largest decrease compared to the first quarter of 2007, falling 14.9 percent to a median sale price of $199,900 in the first quarter of 2009.
…
Center City median home prices decreased 18.2 percent to $326,000 in the first quarter of 2009, compared to the median sale price in the first quarter of 2008, which stood at $398,750. In the first quarter of 2009, Center City saw 149 homes sold, a 50 percent decrease, compared to 298 homes sold in the first quarter of 2008.The average number of days a home remained on the market increased from 109 days in the first quarter of 2008 to 137 days in the first quarter of 2009. Average inventory decreased 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2009 to 1,634 homes for sale.
…
Main Line median home prices decreased 13.7 percent to $309,500 in the first quarter of 2009, compared to the median sale price in the first quarter of 2008, which stood at $358,575. In the first quarter of 2009, the Main Line saw 344 homes sold, a 22.5 percent decrease, compared to 444 homes sold in the first quarter of 2008.The average number of days a home remained on the market increased from 82 days in the first quarter of 2008 to 89 days in the first quarter of 2009. Average inventory decreased 0.8 percent in the first quarter of 2009 to 1,687 homes for sale.
…
New Jersey Shore Counties (Outside the Greater Philadelphia Region)Atlantic County median home prices decreased 15 percent to $216,700 in the first quarter of 2009, compared to the median sale price in the first quarter of 2008, which stood at $255,000. In the first quarter of 2009, Atlantic County saw 396 homes sold, a 35.3 percent decrease, compared to 612 homes sold in the first quarter of 2008. The average number of days a home remained on the market increased from 110 days in the first quarter of 2008 to 124 days in the first quarter of 2009.
Cape May County median home prices decreased 19.6 percent to $410,000 in the first quarter of 2009, compared to the median sale price in the first quarter of 2008, which stood at $510,000. In the first quarter of 2009, Cape May County saw 152 homes sold, a 32.7 percent decrease, compared to 226 homes sold in the first quarter of 2008. The average number of days a home remained on the market increased by one day in the first quarter of 2008 to 141 days in the first quarter of 2009.
Philly performed better than NY area. Wonder why
“Below are the statistics in Philadelphia County during this month Mar 09):
Average Sales Price: $184,305
One-Year Average Price Change: -1.5%
One-Year Change in Average Volume: -23%
http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrcond5/Pennsylvania~Philadelphia~dannycachuela
Pshh.
Everyone knows that
ManhattanPhilly is prettier, smarter, and the kind of person that everyone else wants to be. Take any kid is middle America and ask them where they want to be, they’ll all sayManhattanPhilly.Actually, the talking points answer is that Philly region didn’t see the same kind of bubble that the NY region did. I’m really not so sure I believe that, but it is what you’ll hear.
70 degrees today!!!
I am sure the spring rush will start
this weekend – here they come Clot!
The amount of money we extract from suckers is directly related to a function of the three day temperature delta, lumens, and total cloud coverage. Not so much that we have a nice weekend, but that the weather actually improves into the weekend. Nothing makes extracting cash easier than a gloomy week punctuated by a beautiful weekend. Rainy and mid-40s during the week, heading into 70s on Sunday? They lose all fiscal restraint that literally THROW money at us. Overcast and 59? Nothing but a bunch of real estate prudes with no sense of adventure.
Citi beats, GE beats, rally on!
From CNBC:
Wall Street loses 3,100 jobs in March
Wall Street shed 3,100 workers in March, shrinking New York City’s most important generator of jobs to just 169,200 people, the state’s Department of Labor reported on Thursday.
The state, which relies on New York City to power its economy, has now lost more than 40 percent of the 400,000 jobs that employers added in the five-year economic growth spurt that ended in 2008, the Labor Department said in a report.
Unemployment rates in both New York City and New York state were unchanged in March, but a labor market analyst for the state, James Brown, cautioned against interpreting that steadiness as the start of a more positive trend.
“You can’t guarantee it’s going to go up evenly in a downturn,” Brown said by telephone.
New York City’s unemployment rate in March of 8.1 percent is nearly double the year-ago level of 4.6 percent. The state’s unemployment rate in March was 7.8 percent, compared with the year-ago rate of 4.8 percent.
Grim does the weather phenomenon apply
to the secondary housing market as well?
I would guess even more so. Nothing
like plunking down a couple mil for
two months at the beach!!
Well philly probably didn’t run up as much as other places–there aren’t as many outside forces bumping up the market–like foreigners, major influx of high paying jobs, tourism, an ocean where you can’t build (south of Manhattan, west of LA). However, I distinctly remember at the end of the bubble Philly and Providence (my home town) battling it out for biggest gains in prices since both are places I wanted to buy properties, but never did. Providence has absolutely crashed, philly, not yet.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/report-one-third-of-reos-seriously.html
From CR – “Report: One-third of REO’s Seriously Damaged”
“About a third of all the the foreclosed properties nationwide have been damaged, either by previous owners or by criminal gangs coming in after the foreclosure…”
“This probably explains some of the shadow inventory.”
Grim, this has me thinking. I wonder what affect that has had on some of the price drops we have seen here – with so many REO’s.
When you see a Case-Shiller Index comparison of a property from a few years ago and there is a 50% reduction, can some of the lost value be attributed to the fact that the property in question has been seriously damaged?
I mean – doesn’t it skew the data a bit when 1/3 of the REO’s are damaged?
You are comparing a pristine home from two years ago to a compromised house today…
Cindy; what I thought interesting about the CR piece was that it offered bulldozing as a viable solution.
Federated’s Tice Says S&P 500 Is Poised to Plunge 62% (Update2)
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Pimm Fox and Eric Martin
April 16 (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 28 percent rise since March 9 is a “sucker’s rally,” and the overvalued measure may plunge 62 percent as earnings continue to shrink, according to David Tice of Federated Investors Inc.
Stocks are overpriced relative to earnings, which won’t rebound soon after posting the longest quarterly slump since the Great Depression, said Tice, the chief portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated. Analysts estimate that the S&P 500 earnings decline, which has lasted for six quarters, will continue for three more quarters before profits improve, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6hgHyLBy0VU
Houses in the first ring Montco suburbs (Whitemarsh, Springfield, Abington) are still more than doubled their 1997 prices. Homes are just starting to stay on the market for 6 months or more. Right now, owners are still holding out, but the recession is really just starting to hit around here, so I expect the prices to start falling dramatically. Up through Christmas, we didn’t actually know anyone in the area who’d been laid off, now we can point to a half dozen or so folks in the neighborhood who’ve recently lost their jobs.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/tarp-cop-elizabeth-warren-on-daily-show.html
Elizabeth Warren on The Daily Show – CR
Bulldozing has always been a viable option. Very few understand (or want to admit to) the practicality of loss mitigation.
BTW, bulldozing is also a fun spectator sport.
Implosion works, too.
Houses in the first ring Montco suburbs (Whitemarsh, Springfield, Abington) are still more than doubled their 1997 prices.
Not sure if the same applies out there, but in North Jersey, 1996 to early 1997 represented a cyclical price trough from a real (not nominal) pricing perspective.
That 1996-1997 period was, undoubtedly, the best time to buy real estate in North Jersey, in at least the past two decades.
DL & Pat – One third – That’s a chunk of houses.
RE: Bulldozing – If the house has been trashed and can’t qualify for a mortgage, it seems like a viable solution to me.
“70 degrees today!!!
I am sure the spring rush will start”
Yeah, just passed by 77 Hudson, watching the workers on their breakfast break. I asked them is the fountain was still in operation. Clueless.
Grim – Clot – Do you think there is any notable impact on house prices due to the number of trashed REO’s? Comparing apples to oranges so to speak. Comparing a viable home three years ago (apple) to a trashed hovel today (orange.)
Just wondering. You’d think someone would have written about it, though.
77 Hudson. Hardy har. That place is DOA.
I bet it’s also the final nail in HOV’s coffin.
“Bulldozing”
I stated, a long time ago, that this was the only option available to clear out the massive inventory. Forget about the trillions to the banksters. Bulldoze and distribute the trillions to the taxpayers. Otherwise, I think I’m turning Japanese, I really think so.
I Dunno..if you’re going to bulldoze anyway, what’s the problem with letting people take what they want before bulldozing?? I mean there are things of value in these homes…there was a home in our area that was left vacant for almost 2 years and “things” started happening over there..solution? drastically mark down the price on the house and *viola*..SOLD!!
Cindy (20)-
Sure. In fact, a trashed house- REO or not- has an immediate price impact on its neighbors.
In practical terms, one trashed house in a neighborhood is a nuisance. Two are a blight. Look at Sacramento; that town comes to mind as an excellent example of this.
BC (22)-
Pass the sea urchin and giant clam, please.
BC (22) Especially if this so called “shadow inventory” consists of trashed houses that wouldn’t qualify for mortgages and are considered eyesores to a community.
“77 Hudson. Hardy har. That place is DOA.”
Clot,
I may stop by someday and bid .20 on the dollar, only if they install a fountain. I do enjoy watching the progress each day.
Mickey D’s coming out with Southern fried chicken biscuits.
I look forward to starting my morning with a jolt of this…washed down with HFCS benzene soda and Knob Creek.
Better get out to PA and get my AK before O starts taking away guns.
BC (27)-
.20/USD sounds a little toppy to me.
Cindy,
Better option. Bulldoze the fed/treasury. Upon completion, move north to Trenton and then further north to Wall Street.
“.20/USD sounds a little toppy to me.”
Clot,
You’re right, at .20/dollar I’ll be a bagholder in a Condo Shack [thank you BOOYAA].
Jim Cramer is looking into the camera and telling me he’s trying to save me money.
Thanks, Jim.
8:27 AM. Too early to drink?
Bulldozing? I thought the time-honored tradition was an electrical fire.
” 2 am
Philly performed better than NY area. Wonder why”
Proximity to NY. It is just a short train ride away.
http://www.env-econ.net/2009/04/stimulate-this-beach-.html
Something for you, Shore.
“Stimulate this (beach)!”
“Some cities want bridges and schools from the federal stimulus plan. Virginia Beach wants all of that and sand, too.”
Cindy,
No index corrects for those factors perfectly. The factor you speak of works in both directions, up *AND* down.
When that rough condition property was purchased, remodeled, and flipped, it showed up as appreciation, even though there was additional investment. Indicies incorrectly showed more appreciation than existed.
Likewise, on the way down the same effect comes in to play.
This is short-term, but there is another longer-term phenomenon that isn’t captured either, increasing home size and quality. You simply can’t compare the average home in the 1980s to a home in the 2000s.
How do you correct for increasing home size and quality? This absolutely kills me when Realtors talk about long-term price trends. You can’t, without correction.
Case Shiller does attempt to correct for this, although with the caveat that these can’t always be identified.
From the Index Methodology doc:
Different weights are assigned to different changes in home prices based on their
statistical distribution in that geographic region. The goal of this weighting process is to
measure changes in the value of the residential real estate market, as opposed to atypical
changes in the value of individual homes. These weighting schemes include:
Price Anomalies. If there is a large change in the prices of a sales pair relative to the
statistical distribution of all price changes in the area, then it is possible that the home
was remodeled, rebuilt or neglected in some manner during the period from the first sale
to the second sale. Or, if there were no physical changes to the property, there may have
been a recording error in one of the sale prices, or an excessive price change caused by
idiosyncratic, non-market factors. Since the indices seek to measure homes of constant
quality, the methodology will apply smaller weights to homes that appear to have
changed in quality or sales that are otherwise not representative of market price trends.
#28 Clot
O said yesterday that he would not come after the AK as the issue was “too Political”
cooper says:
April 17, 2009 at 5:33 am
Chifi- BOA told me that they think I was “misplaced” and charged commercial rates by accident. I can only hope since after the first 2 1/2 hrs on the phone I had to go to work. Maybe today I’ll get to the bottom of this 10X account fee jump in one month… B@stards!
coop: they all stink, but BOA leaves an extra thick ring around the tub after bathing…
29 – Clot,
My GF offered them under $400sq/ft for 41st floor east facing unit at 77. They didnt accept :-\.
The 34th floor PH at “A” Condos just sold in March for $600 a sq/ft. As well as a couple others in the building for around the same, or a little less.
So obv. things are still selling there. Will be interesting to see 77’s cancelation rate when they begin closings on 6/15. I think my GF will give them the same offer on 6/16. Maybe then they’ll take it.
From ABC
President O Suggests Pushing for “Assault Weapon” Ban Not In the Cards
‘But the White House has indicated it is not willing to expend political capital on the issue. At a joint press conference with President Calderon, President Obama just now said that he has not backed “off at all from my belief that the assault weapons ban made sense…Having said that, none of us are under any illusion that reinstating that ban would be easy.”‘
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/04/president-ob-17.html
clot: I am elevating this comment from “request” to “demand”….
chicagofinance says:
April 17, 2009 at 12:01 am
I hereby request that clot drinks an entire bottle of Maker’s Mark before he starts to post tommorrow. That last time he showed up drunk here the results were quite fascinating….
Not sure if the same applies out there, but in North Jersey, 1996 to early 1997 represented a cyclical price trough from a real (not nominal) pricing perspective.
That’s probably true for this area as well. We bought our house in Feb of ’97 so that’s the market with which I am most familiar. We definitely didn’t have the same rate of increase that some other parts of the country had, so I expect the decline here won’t be as dramatic either.
We’d like to buy a rental property in Whitemarsh, where taxes are lowest. In order to do it comfortably with very little financial risk to us, we’d like to see the price for a 3 bedroom 1.5 bath (minimum) to be under 200k. As the house would initially be occupied by family, we’re hoping to catch a fixer upper at that price that would ultimately become a rental. My guess is we’ll probably see those prices inside a year on some of the older construction homes.
Ellen (13)-
About a month ago I met some friends for dinner and one said that they did not know one person that was laid off. During dinner a friend called her to say that her husband was laid off. A week later I was laid off.
What’s amazing is the worst time for consumers seems to be when the stock market is rallying. With consumers being hurt and banks recording more profits, how can they possibly give them more money?
Cindy,
Thanks for the link. I for one find it ironic how so many people who are in beachfront homes see the beach as theirs all the while wanting the public to pay to replace sand. NJ has a srtong public policy, going back to English Common Law, that the beaches are a public trust. But even here we err a bit too far on the side of homeowners.
“Jim Cramer is looking into the camera and telling me he’s trying to save me money.”
He’s retiring?
Spring market is here. Not much going on in my area. A couple of houses appear to have gone under contract.
One was a flip, guy bought it for 325K, closed 6 weeks ago. (a good price, 4 bed 2 bath cape), puts a new kitchen in, paints, re-done floors, landscaping, goes back on the market at 449K, appears to be under contract.
Another I was following, lower price than 2 years ago but still too high appears to have gone UC as well.
Everything else is just sitting and rotting.
The problem I believe with the 1 or 2 that sells here and there, is that if the sellers get anywhere close to their asking price, it encourages the other sellers to hold tight, and assume if they just wait, they can get their price.
This of course makes the decline incredibly slow.
The decline in prices this time around in my area appears to be taking alot longer than the early 90’s, and today’s recession is much worse than the early 90’s.
Makes no sense to me.
chi (41)-
Sorry. I have to function today.
(36) Thanks Grim. I wasn’t looking at the picture in both directions.
My thoughts centered around the idea that maybe these 50% drops might really be less if you compared apples to apples.
As you pointed out, many factors ARE taken into the Case Shiller Index figures.
Clot – Check out Elizabeth Warren @14.
She is trying to get the word out – anyway she can.
Stewart perceives her as positive at the end of clip#2. She reminds us that we have been pulling thread after thread from the fabric of regulations that were in place to protect us since the 30’s.
As you know, I’m rooting for her to make a difference.
How can we determine a formula for determining expected housing price declines, so that we can eliminate the false assumption that
“prices didn’t go up so much here during the bubble, so I don’t expect them to go down as much later.”
What factors can we include in the equation to show visually that
prices probably didn’t go up as much…but they would have DECLINED absent this bubble.
The reason I’ve continued to state this is simple – this bubble was caused by a financial boom. Money bubble. The money was available just about everywhere. So if a town “only increased a bit” during the bubble, that means prices were falsely supported, and should have declined. So all that price decline is still pending.
Anybody want to start shooting holes in this? Please use arguements other than “all real estate is local”
determine a formula for determining the determination…yikes. I need booze.
re: 77 Hudson.
I generally do a loop through Jersey City on my bike a few times a year, looks like they are going to finish the waterfront off there with a bridge and a park.
http://www.wirednewyork.com/forum/showpost.php?p=280782&postcount=3003
Cindy,
Did you notice how much beach they have lost down there? It is even worse than the Outer Banks.
(53) Shore – Yes, I did notice. It makes it seem fruitless. The argument that it is for the good of the entire area economy – employment and tourism – is viable though. Tough decision.
” Please use arguements other than all real estate is local”
1) Our schools are better
2) This has always been a more desirable area
3) I need to make my car lease payment and my kids need shoes so please, Please, PLEASE overpay.
” The argument that it is for the good of the entire area economy – employment and tourism – is viable though.”
I have almost always lived in a beach/tourist area, and I do not agree that it is important to save tourism. Mountains wear down and so do beaches. As the ocean advances, it takes away eisting beach and creates new beach, albeit further inland than the original beach. What government is doing is spending vast sums to protect the investments of the current beachfront owners instead of allowing nature to take its course, relcaim their land, and create new beachfront owners.
Cindy,
There is a wellknown beach community here in NJ called Long Branch. Back before air travel, it was a favored location for “Summer Whitehouses” and a number of Presidents used to summer there. It is decidedly downscale from that now.
Anyway, the current beachfront properties used to be 3-4 blocks in from the ocean. The other blocks were swept to sea in a huge storm, I believe in the 40s.
The sea advances, it is the way of things and, for this reason, beach houses have tended to look the way they have. Our current fetish of building McMansions beachfront is absurd.
Long brance, especially those ugly and too tall “things” that block the beach, is another place tha can use a lantern and a cow.
Branch
Whatever happened in Harvey Cedars?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26013980/
I like the homeowners who complain that the proposed dunes will drop their home values from $1M to $600k….as if once their home is swept away into the ocean it will be worth more than $0!
Shore – monmouth beach, I remember the nor’easter in October of 1991, we went down too see the damage, it knocked loose huge boulders from the sea wall and afterwards there was no sand left.
They were able to extend the beach out about a hundred yards a decade ago. It is getting replenished again this year.
http://www.northjersey.com/environment/environmentnews/NJs_800M_shoreline.html
http://www.fresnobee.com/local/story/1336699.html
“Rising home prices reverse trend”
Fresno Bee – Headline today.
“Home prices edged up in March for the first time in 13 months, providing a glimmer of hope for homeowners shell-shocked after years of declining property values during one of the worst real-estate recessions in decades.”
“Last month, 783 existing houses were sold in Fresno County, up from 635 in February and a whopping 98.7% gain from March 2008, MDA Dataquick reported.”
I like the homeowners who complain that the proposed dunes will drop their home values from $1M to $600k….as if once their home is swept away into the ocean it will be worth more than $0!
On the bright side, they can file a tax appeal
(56) Hey Shore – You are the shore expert. I live in the middle of a valley!
I found the answer to my question. There are still 13 hold outs in town and the replenishment project has been delayed. The town is now seeking to use eminent domain to get the required easements.
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/183/story/432976.html
Remember kids, prices fall in working markets.
Stagnant prices as volume falls off a cliff is a sign of an unhealthy market, not a healthy one.
Witness Fresno, above. Prices declined dramatically, albeit to levels justified by fundamentals. What happens? Sales improve as buyers move in and the market clears.
Grim – 66 in mod. Not sure why. It’s a link to an article about HC and eminent domain.
Sean,
And by recreating the beach in Monmouth Beach and Sea Bright, at taxpayer’s expense, we preserved private homeowner’s value and prevented other homeowners from becoming beachfront owners. I am okay with beach restoration as long as part of it is eliminating homes that should not be there and restoring it to its natural state, like Island Beach State Park.
And for your morning does of ridiculousness:
We’re Talking About “Nursery University,” opening April 24th
It’s a documentary that follows five New York City families through the insanity of nursery school admissions, from the first frantic phone calls on the day after Labor Day just to get an application, all the way through the final acceptances and rejections. It’s an ordeal that will be familiar to parents not only in New York but in an increasing number of urban pockets, where the ironic byproduct of more families committing to live there has become an imbalance in supply vs. demand, one that has turned the once sweet and simple rite of nursery school passage into a complex, competitive battle that is in fact statistically more daunting than getting your high school senior into Harvard.
The film opens with the first family profiled, Upper East Siders Tony and Cynthia, and as they enthuse from their manicured sofa it’s a safe assumption that “Nursery University” is going to play right into that favorite media stereotype of a certain strata of Manhattanites that can make the rest of the universe gag. Fortunately, we are also introduced to four other families who create a surprisingly rounded and humane composite of different New York families who are striving to manage through this craziness, contend with their own hopes and desires, and ultimately do right for their children. (Essays about their 2-year-olds, interviews, and a prize worth an average $15,ooo+ tuition bill not withstanding). Especially interesting is the unparalleled access the filmmakers were granted behind the curtain of the admissions process within some of New York City’s most prestigious preschools. It’s fascinating to see the Director of the noted Mandell School, Gabriella Rowe, and her staff wade through the many applications, throw around a little snark as you might suspect, but mostly genuinely agonize themselves over the impossibility of choosing so few out of so many.
If you still have this process ahead of you, you’ll watch “Nursery University” with angst mixed with appreciation for its insight and humor. And if you’ve already been through it, you’ll surely watch with recognition and relief.
“Nursery University” opens next week in limited distribution in the Northeast.
Watch the trailer at http://nurseryuniversitythemovie.com
“You are the shore expert. I live in the middle of a valley!
Now. Live long enough and you will be on the shore. Or, maybe, under a bay.
Hospital employee shoots coworkers at outpatient pharmacy in Long Beach CA. There were layoffs recently.
Re Jersey City and 77 hudson, HOV is unrealistic about sales price and still think $700psf is a selling price. The whole area down there is in trouble between Hoboken and Downtown JC I see well over 1200 listings for condos not including all of the new inventory. At the current sales rate when all of these condos come on line I see at least 5+ years of inventory. Oh yeah and the buyers can no longer afford it! I smell a 50% off sale, things are lining up the same way they did in the 80s.
From the Record:
March state revenue fell short by $80 million
April’s income tax filings are now even more important for Governor Corzine’s new budget, thanks to an $80 million shortfall last month.
The state Department of Treasury reported today that March revenue collections came in under what Corzine forecast for the month when he reset state revenue projections for the new budget.
The gap between projected revenues and what was collected is less than 4 percent, but the governor was already working with a small margin of error thanks to the bad economy and its toll on nearly every source of state revenue.
The nonpartisan state Office of Legislative Services predicted last week the governor’s revenue projections through the end of June will be off by $383 million, meaning more cuts or tax hikes could be coming.
State Treasurer David Rousseau said Thursday that this month’s tax collections “loom the largest.”
“t! I smell a 50% off sale, things are lining up the same way they did in the 80s.”
Notwithstanding the fact that prices may come way down, after looking at the experience in places like Miami where defaults by condo owners caused HOA fees for the solvent owners to skyrocket, one would need to tred carefully when buying such property.
Shore 75 – My in-laws live in a senior condo development in S. Florida. This has been a big issue for their community. Apparently Tallahassee is considering legislation putting the banks on the hook for the association fees.
Bottom line?
New Jersey should secede. Right now, the Garden State is getting hosed. Citizens paid in, on average, about $3,200 more per head than they got back from Uncle Sam. That would make for one heck of a tax cut.
Connecticut should ankle, too. Residents there paid in about $2,700 more than they got back. Likewise Nevada ($2,500), Minnesota ($1,900), Illinois ($1,500), California ($1,300), New York ($1,200) and Massachusetts ($1,100).
The flinty folk of “Live Free or Die” New Hampshire famously like low taxes. According to Tax Foundation numbers, they might save about $1,800 each by going it alone. Perhaps most remarkably, these states have been paying in far more than they have been getting back even while the federal government has run a hefty deficit overall.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123991102176626251.html
I called our insurance company today. I was excited because I thought we met our 2K per person in network out of pocket maximum for 1 of our 5 family members. We have a 6K limit in network and 12K limit out of network. Anytime I start chiseling away, I feel safer.
Apparently payments to mental health providers (teenage issues) do not count towards out of pocket maximums, even though the money does in fact come out of my pocket. As does $450 a month from my paycheck and whatever my employer contributes.
So, in the event of another catastrophic health event, I am still another 12K out of pocket maximum away from safe. Since my husband’s surgeon does not participate in any health insurance plan- there is no maximum. I’m liable for 40% of whatever the surgeon charges.
I tried to make this make sense but it doesn’t. I have spent 3 yrs reading every bill and reviewing every EOB. I thought having health insurance was supposed to make you feel safe.
Gator,
I seem to recall a story, I don’t remember if I read it here or in Fla., about a highrise that had something like 80% of the people fail to pay fees and the fees for the remaining people went from a few thousand dollars to scores of thousands of dollars.
I have a HOA for my home in Ohio. Just this last year the HOA dissolved due to non-payment from about 20% of the residents.
They were spending a majority of the money collected from paying residents on lawyers to prosecute the non-paying residents.
Didn’t take much to dissolve the HOA to tell you the truth. I think it differs by state though.
Financial relief for
condo associations
Last Edited: Friday, 10 Apr 2009, 4:53 PM EDT
Created On: Friday, 10 Apr 2009, 4:53 PM EDT
TALLAHASSEE – Florida’s foreclosure problems are increasing the financial pressure on condominium owners and associations, and one Florida lawmaker is proposing some changes.
Rep. Julio Robaina says he has a plan to bring relief to financially strapped condo associations.
He’s pushing legislation that would force banks and other lenders to pay the maintenance fees on foreclosed units at the start of the foreclosure process instead of at the end, which is the practice now.
“It may take six months, a year, a year and a half to settle them. That means the association goes with no money for that long a period of time. What this would do is speed up the process and get them paid upfront, made whole at the beginning,” Robaina said.
Condo buildings have fewer residents, so there’s less money going to associations from condo fees. As a result, many associations are going bankrupt or they are raising their fees for the remaining residents to try to stay afloat.
Florida has more than 20,000 condominium associations and it’s estimated up to 40 percent are struggling to survive. At the same time, condo owners who have faithfully paid their fees are also having a tough time paying the higher bills.
Robaina’s bill would also give condo boards the power to collect fees directly from renters if the landlord doesn’t pay up. He says too many people have rented out their condos but are not continuing to pay the condo fees.
“Thus giving the board the power to collect from the tenant two checks, ‘You’ll send us first what you owe us and what our portion is and send then the remainder or the difference to your landlord.”‘
The bill would also create law enforcement jobs for condo associations. Robaina says problems with fraud are piling up and associations need help with investigating and cracking down on fraud.
“What this bill, for the first time, would establish is basically law enforcement positions just for the condominium associations, which will deal with nothing but investigating,” Robaina said.
Robaina says his proposal includes relief for condo owners on insurance. Currently, Florida law requires them to carry content insurance, which can cost thousands of dollars a year. This bill eliminates the requirement for content insurance
http://www.myfoxtampabay.com/dpp/news/state/Condo_legislation_041009
Rob Samouce: Banks contributing to the delinquency of associations
6:00 a.m., Saturday, April 4, 2009
Under the current real estate economic client in Florida, many banks and other financial institutions holding first mortgages are contributing to the delinquency of condominium and homeowners’ associations’ assessment funds by stalling to initiate foreclosure actions and then by failing to timely complete their foreclosures once their cases have been filed.
These financial institutions holding first mortgages do not want to obtain title through foreclosure during a flat real estate market because then they will have to start paying assessments on units or homes that they may not be able to quickly sell.
What happens first is first mortgagees take their time filing a foreclosure action once an owner has become seriously delinquent. Then, once they file their action, they take their time completing the action to get title. During this whole process, units or homes are either being trashed or run down by the delinquent owner or tenant, or are sitting empty with the possibility of being turned into mold factories because of utilities not being paid.
In addition, no assessments are being paid by anyone on these units. This puts a financial strain on associations operating the condominium or homeowner association as most of the associations’ expenses are constant; meaning the remainder of the unit owners will be forced to pick up the assessment delinquency slack.
Even worse is trying to get these banks and financial institutions to consider or take reasonable short sale offers from ready, willing and able buyers. It appears banks have no experience in short sales or have no competent staff able to review short sales.
We have seen banks shoot themselves in the foot by refusing a decent short sale offer and then go through foreclose and get the unit. When they finally sell the unit after foreclosure, the price may be hundreds of thousands of dollars less than if they had taken the short sale. It is as if their work-out department belongs to a different company than their foreclosure department.
Under the currently applicable Florida laws, first mortgagees of condominium units, who acquire title to a unit by foreclosure or deed in lieu of foreclosure, are only liable for the assessments that came due six months immediately preceding the acquisition of title or 1 percent of the original mortgage debt, whichever is less.
First mortgagees of homes, governed by a homeowners’ association, are only liable for assessments that came due 12 months immediately preceding the acquisition of title or 1 percent of the mortgage debt, whichever is less.
As you can see, because the liability for assessments is very limited before the bank takes title, there is a lot of incentive for them to put off acquiring title until it looks like they may have a buyer. After they acquire title, banks holding the first mortgages are then liable for all of the assessments that come due while holding title.
There are various new bills being proposed in Tallahassee this legislative session to try to get banks to complete their foreclosures quickly.
One (SB 998) proposes that if they do not complete their foreclosure in a year after filing, banks will be responsible for all unpaid assessments. Another (HB 831 or SB 880) proposes that if banks do not pay the cap amounts (six or 12 months or 1 percent) within 30 days of taking title, they will be liable for all assessments that come due before they acquired title.
Banking industry lobbyists are strong, well paid and are opposing any of these proposed laws that will increase their exposure to paying more assessments than currently required.
There are a few association lobbyists, such as the Florida Legislative Alliance (FLA) of the Community Association Institute (CAI), to support these bills. However, they do not have the huge financial backing like the banking industry lobbyist.
Therefore, a grass roots effort is necessary by those in your community to contact your state legislature representatives and let them know that you support legislation to get banks in line and require them to pay their fair share of association assessments so that they do not continue to contribute to the delinquency of the funds necessary to properly run your community associations.
You can contact CAI at http://www.southgulfcoastchaptercai.com or your local state representatives at http://www.flsenate.gov/ or http://www.myfloridahouse.gov/.
Rob Samouce, a principal attorney in the Naples law firm of Samouce, Murrell, & Gal, P.A., concentrates his practice in the areas of community associations including representing condominium, cooperative and homeowners’ associations in all their legal needs including the procedural governance of their associations, covenant enforcement, assessment collections, contract negotiations and contract litigation, real estate transactions, general business law, construction defect litigation and other general civil litigation matters. This column is not based on specific legal advice to anyone and is based on principles subject to change from time to time. Those persons interested in specific legal advice on topics discussed in this column should consult competent legal counsel.
http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2009/apr/04/rob-samouce-banks-contributing-delinquency-associa/
http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2009/apr/04/rob-samouce-banks-contributing-delinquency-associa/
CalculatedRisk has a great article on the rising credit losses over at Citi. If I’m reading the charts right a full %7+ of 1st mortgages are 90+ late, up from %5.7 in Q4 `08.
Now, we all know there is a lag between getting laid off, burning through any savings and then finally starting to skip payments. Given the unemployment spike in the past 2 quarters I’m wondering how long it will take before we begin to see them show up in credit losses. I’m thinking a year, but have nothing to base it on.
BankUnited given 20 days to strike deal
http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2009/04/13/daily53.html
Mish exposes Trich,
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/04/trichet-joins-beggar-thy-neighbour-club.html
Are town houses usually held fee simple?
Lumber indicates a bottom? Gotta love lumber traders;
http://www.idahostatesman.com/business/story/734727.html
I had Sunday dinner (Easter) with my wifes family and friends. I came to the very sad realization that out of the 9 people seated at the table that I was the only one with full employment.
The remaining 8 were unemployed or underemployed.
My brother called me up the Saturday before and asked to borrow 4,000$ to which I told him no. During dinner on Sunday my sister-in-law came to me crying. Debt collectors have been calling her at work over 45,000$ she owes.
Something has gone way way wrong.
Laurie says:
April 17, 2009 at 8:22 am
I Dunno..if you’re going to bulldoze anyway, what’s the problem with letting people take what they want before bulldozing?? I mean there are things of value in these homes…there was a home in our area that was left vacant for almost 2 years and “things” started happening over there..solution? drastically mark down the price on the house and *viola*..SOLD!!
I AGREE!!!
How about holding a NO _RESERVE all-cash auctions instead of bulldozing?? Builders can bulldoze themselves or salvage what they can use.
Problem is that in NJ thouse run-down properties are still being sold for 250-300K!!!
Bulldozing might make sense in Detroit. In high population density areas like CA or NJ – thouse houses will still sell for 100K+… Well may be for 50K+?
re#83 tosh – FYI – The Treasury started handing out Billions to the banks this week for loan mods, Citi is sure to get a few billion up front. These accelerated loan mods will make Barney Frank gay enough (the happy kind of gay) that you could expect 2nd half of the TARP money to be released.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKN1550574020090415
Also the new FASB rule “now you see it now you don’t” went into effect, that created “profit” out of devaluing debt.
Fun times….
Nicholas,
It is time to direct them to the Saturday Night Live skit about “Don’t buy stuff you can’t afford.”
Anyone want to grab a sedge island off Bay Head or Rumson and declare a nompound
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7999287.stm
re: #88 Nicholas – I hope you have taken those steps to protect your mother’s assets.
grim (67)-
Yeah, but too much of markets beginning to work and clear themselves again isn’t good news for the bankers and their questionable MBS.
Therefore, we must devote all possible resources to stifling the market, propping up untenable prices and covering up the whole mess to the rest of the world.
We must keep banks going, even if we destroy the whole country in the process.
It’s the American way.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090416/ap_on_re_us/mystery_gifts
Interesting yahoo story about anonymous donations to colleges around the United States.
silera (78)-
Health insurance is a legalized racket.
You- of all people- should understand that. They only exist to maximize premiums, collect premiums and deny care.
make (85)-
Beggar Thy Neighbor becomes the tacit monetary policy of the last holdout CB on Earth.
Fun times ahead!
For those of you interested in Middlesex County. There is also a breakdown of some individual towns.
Data is for single family homes only and from MCMLS. From a realtor site so take it for what’s it worth.
http://www.yourhousefast.com/members-only——–.asp
Middlesex County Trends
Mar-09
Active Inventory 2747
New Homes Listed 765
Sold Homes 200
Median Sold Price $299,950
Average Sold Price $316,381
Sold Price/Asking Price Ratio 94.00%
Days on Market 97
Days of Inventory 426
Previous Month (Feb 2009)
Active Inventory 2703 ( +1.62% )
New Homes Listed 658 ( +16.26% )
Sold Homes 158 ( +26.58% )
Median Sold Price $320,000 ( -6.2% )
Average Sold Price $348,449 ( -9.2% )
Sold Price/Asking Price Ratio 93% ( +1.07% )
Days on Market 85 ( +14.11% )
Days of Inventory 480 ( -11.25% )
Mar-08
Active Inventory N/A
New Homes Listed 891 ( -14.14% )
Sold Homes 245 ( -18.36% )
Median Sold Price $355,000 ( -15.50% )
Average Sold Price $386,940 ( -18.23% )
Sold Price/Asking Price Ratio 94.00%
Days on Market 78 ( +24.35% )
Days of Inventory N/A
regarding bulldozing:
if they start to bulldoze any significant number of buildings you have to consider the health/environmental impact. lots of nasty dust and chemicals can be set loose by mass bulldozing without proper clean up. who pays for the clean up and land fill?
One or two homes wouldn’t be a problem, but start bringing down entire neighborhoods and you have a problem.
By the way, the city of new Brunswick did this to a neighborhood of condo/public housing in between Douglas campus and college ave campus right when they started the big development push in the new Brunswick area sometime around 2002. it looked like a bomb had been set off in the middle of the city, as in a matter of a few days they ripped the entire area down and then came in behind it and did clean up. it almost looked like some of the pictures from WWII carpet bombed cities.
Lawyer survives Flt 1549, but not Skadden Layoffs
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30220173/
Update from T2; Market will bottom Mid-2010, 40-50% off peak. Outlook is “Grim”.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/14166113/T2-Partners-Presentation-on-the-Mortgage-Crisis4309-3
“Beggar Thy Neighbo”
As fewer and fewer people pay taxes and the apex of the triangle of taxpayers is told to BOHICA. Perhaps the new motto should “buggar thy neighbor.”
Re: [12]
Maybe one of you financial gurus can explain this recent market rally in light of 6 million people being unemployed. Where or how are companies generating revenue (other than from faux accounting)?
Seems like a serious case of irrational exuberance to me…..
So like the over-priced home market…..I keep waiting, and waiting, and waiting…..
Alap@77
not sure exactly where i heard this but isn’t part of the deal w/the northeast states paying more in taxes than they get back that those states that get more do so because they have more things like military bases or other things undesirable like yucca mtn that the northeast states would never take anyways
plus, if you factor in all of these financial company bailouts (which benefit states like nj and ny overwhelmingly) i imagine the totals would be different
You guys will love this!!!! heard it on the radio last night.
We need home equity insurance now
Barry Nalebuff
The housing market is struggling to recover even with the Obama administration’s $75 billion foreclosure prevention program. Commentator Barry Nalebuff says to get housing back on track we need a federal home equity insurance program.
<i.Unlike other bailout programs, providing home equity insurance won’t cost taxpayers billions. Here’s why. Having insurance available changes the whole market psychology. The very existence of the insurance increases demand which reduces the risk that prices will fall. This makes the insurance cheap to provide. Indeed, if the increased demand just stabilizes prices, there won’t be any claims and the cost of providing the insurance will be free.
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/04/16/pm_housing_insurance/
Every time I think to start looking, one of such posts changes my mind. Thanks BC.
==
BC Bob says:
April 17, 2009 at 11:59 am
Update from T2; Market will bottom Mid-2010, 40-50% off peak. Outlook is “Grim”.
CP- I know. I think I’m just a glutton for punishment.
Luckily, it is Friday. On Friday nights I treat myself to astonishingly cheap liquor and remember when Patron on ice flowed freely.
Ket,
Can I have a pony?
Ket,
Can I have a pony instead?
kettle [105],
After you sign the closing documents the lawyer bring you to another room, after-sell dept.; Gap Ins for housing.
SHore,
sure you can have a pony, would you also like some government funded cosmetic surgery, a new Ferrari, and a french maid for your equity insured home?
shore,
wait, actually you cant have any of that, your income is high then what dera leader thinks is appropriate and you shall be funding my equity insurance, new ferrari and french maid, oh and a pool boy for Mrs kettle.
Ninth Inning!!
#90 – Sean – Oh, I knew we were getting an elaborate show on “profits”. There’s nothing that can be done about those non-payments on CCs and mortgages.
This mighr be one neighborhood in which to avoid buying.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/04/17/national/main4952110.shtml
Ket,
It is like the line from the old song: She got he mine and I got the shaft. The galling thing is that those getting benefits care of us want us to bend over and say, “Thank you sir. May I have another?”
re: 108
“When I was a little girl in Poland, we all had ponies. My sister had pony, my cousin had pony, ..So, what’s wrong with that?”
Thanks kettle for saying french maid, what little chance I had to get work done with a day baseball game is gone. Googling french maid…..
Mrs. Shore wont let me google a french maid.
Interesting, a few months ago Bloomberg got the City to throw out the Mayoral Term Limits, because the Current Financial Crisis required his skills. Yesterday, he said the Single Most Important Problem was the need to pass Gay Marriage Legislation. It’s doubtful he has expertise in that area, but he is not calling for reestablishment of Term Limits?
“This mighr be one neighborhood in which to avoid buying.”
Shore [115],
That’s one way to unload the pos.
fench maid? even a dense person like me can figure out you want to re-play games by mr. and mrs. mcgreevey
#105 kettle: I must be an idiot not to understand that.
#116 Shore: And soem belive we should thank God that we have the opportunity to do it.
We in effect should be grateful.
if the market stays this level until close, it will mark 6th consecutive gain since march 9th. this coincidently fits one of my prediction made at the end of last year: the recession ends at the end of Q1.
yesterday S*S went through $26 mark during the day, which i can credit my another prediction: S*S to $25 level
#125 bi: The market going up (still very much down from its high of 14,000), does not mean the recession is over.Surely, you understand that. The market
How can the recession be over, when unemployment is still rising, and all the rest?
The market may be projecting (wrongly in my opinion0, that the light is at tne end of the tunnel, but that in no way means the recession is as you say over.
Why do you deliberatley set yourself up to be ridiculed?
#88
Being unemployed is no picnic ( for me it is now 2 months) but I am in decent financial shape. My best responses so far in job-hunting have been from smaller firms. The larger ones are simply not hiring, at least not in my field, which is the legal field. What has been most reassuring and surprising to me is that friends of friends, etc. have been so helpful in providing contacts. You absolutely CANNOT be shy about telling everyone you know about your predicament. I never expected people to care as much as they do, and to put themselves out to help. I hope I never have to ask a relative for any financial help and I don’t know what I would do if I were you and had been asked to do so.
It’s baaaaaack people!! A new picture and a 20K price cut, and you know this magnificent colonial is priced to move!
John or gary, make your dreams come true, and be the envy of all of your neighbors. Hurry, hurry!!!
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2915862&id=999999
3b,
Oh, there is light we see, but it is a train heading our way.
“By the way, the city of new Brunswick did this to a neighborhood of condo/public housing in between Douglas campus and college ave campus right when they started the big development push in the new Brunswick area sometime around 2002. it looked like a bomb had been set off in the middle of the city, as in a matter of a few days they ripped the entire area down and then came in behind it and did clean up. it almost looked like some of the pictures from WWII carpet bombed cities.”
I remember that day. I took the MCATs and drove by those things in the morning. When the test was done, I was driving back home and they looked like a huge pile of bricks.
shore guy –
#33 – A crappy local bar closed due to fire. A lightning bolt hit the electric wires, flashed into the bar, and set it on fire. At a party, I heard one couple boasting of how they’d heard the lightning strike and immediately called 911. The fire company responded quickly and stopped the fire before the bar was totaled. The funny part was that the bar owner was also at the party – and boy did he have a sour look on his face when listening to them. I got the feeling that he was pissed – a perfect chance to collect on the insurance, without being a criminal – ruined by these eager beavers. :-)
#57 – Oh, is that what happened to Long Branch. My company’s home office is in Eatontown; one day I just headed to the closest beach to take a look. Ugh! What a pit! I guess I’ve been spoiled by going to Beach Haven.
126#, 3b, first, you know that unemploement number is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. second, it would be too late to declare the end of recession when dow is back to 14K mark.
third, more recent economic numbers besides stock indices show we are in early recovery stage if you listen to bernanke and other insiders. (they did not explicitly mention that but you have to read between lines.)
Bi,
How about your call regarding housing, up 10% in 2008?
Re equity insurance,
That could be an interesting way for the government to trigger inflation. It could essentially put “virtual money” in the consumers hands. of course it only works for as long as the US Gov can support the debt. It should only cost a few trillion
“Maybe one of you financial gurus can explain this recent market rally in light of 6 million people being unemployed. Where or how are companies generating revenue (other than from faux accounting)?”
Markets can rally in any environment. The great depression saw some of the greatest market rallies. Market rallies have less to do with good/bad news and more to do with the fact that the rules are changed on a weekly basis and no one in their right mind would know how to price any of these stocks.
“if you listen to bernanke and other insiders.”
Just busted a gut.
BC
wait could Bi actually be bernanke?????
Bi,
Listen to Bergabe? Maybe just a bad day, drinking too much of Clot’s Knob Creek?
“Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.”
“U.S. house prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years, noted Bernanke, currently chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress’s Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, “largely reflect strong economic fundamentals,” such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/26/AR2005102602255.html
“wait could Bi actually be bernanke?????”
kettle,
No. He’s the Energizer Bunny. His batteries get charged when Bergabe farts.
http://www.energizer.ca/images/framework/energizer-bunny-page.jpg
133#, no one can hit 100% all the time. i may fail on my predition on gold this year also.
>BC Bob says:
April 17, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Bi,
How about your call regarding housing, up 10% in 2008?
Mikeinwaiting, shore
if you look at the current levels of excess industrial capacity, a solid global conflict could be just the think to bring supply back in line with demand.
Shore given the Eu’s dependence of russia for energy one could make an argument that in 20 years the global power structure could very much resemble Oceania, Eurasia , Eastasia
138#, bob, real wise one is not who can predict well but who can react well. how many on this board predicted dow under 7000 but lost a bundle? so far he has been highly marked outside of this board (oops – i forget mike morgan).
“first, you know that unemploement number is a lagging indicator”
Bi,
Housing is also a lagging indicator. At least that’s what history tells us. One must wonder, what happened this time? A housing bust in a strong economic climate? Knocking at your door, the first time in history that housing is both a leading and a lagging indicator. It will blow the doors off the hinges.
“real wise one is not who can predict well but who can react well.”
Bi,
If you don’t understand the problem how do you arrive at a solution?
99 re New Brunswick – “it looked like a bomb had been set off in the middle of the city, as in a matter of a few days they ripped the entire area down and then came in behind it and did clean up. it almost looked like some of the pictures from WWII carpet bombed cities.”
some might argue it still looks like that.
“how many on this board predicted dow under 7000 but lost a bundle?”
Bi,
You are kidding right? You’re talking about a market that is 6,000 points off its high and merely 1,600 off its low. Just standard text book market action.
“133#, no one can hit 100% all the time.”
Bi,
Why don’t you strive for a new goal? The Mendoza line.
RUWaiting says:
April 17, 2009 at 11:59 am
Re: [12]
Maybe one of you financial gurus can explain this recent market rally in light of 6 million people being unemployed. Where or how are companies generating revenue (other than from faux accounting)?
Seems like a serious case of irrational exuberance to me…..
So like the over-priced home market…..I keep waiting, and waiting, and waiting…..
What rally – we went from 14000 DOW to 8000 dow. In my books it is 42% drop!!!
My 401K account is still 36% off it’s high from last year – where is MY RALLY!!!!!!
If you count 8000 as a base, markets have to go up 6000 or wopping 75% to just get even with where we were in September 2008.
Once again – where did you fing a rally???
#132 bi: Unemployment cannot be a lagging indicator with 600k+ the norm over the last few months, and no end in sight for the next few months.
It is a lagging indicator towards the end of the recession, not a 1/3 to midway through the process.
What more recent economic numbers are you talking about?
Unemployment claims that dropped by 53k, but were still 610K?
The Fed Beige book? Economic activity is still dropping in all areas of the country, but in some areas not dropping as much as they were? What kind of gobbly-gook is that?
Gee I don’t know, I would have thought only when economic activity stopped dropping could we say things were stabalizing.
Or is it the GS profit that if you read the whole release would make you doubt there was a profit at all? They just discounted December, where they had a huge loss, but that is just being ignored sicne they are now a bank holding company and changed their calendar year?
Yes, lets just throw December 08, out, it does not count, we get a do over.
Is it the JP Morgan 2 billion profit? Gee well we gave you 25 billion. What did you dow with it?
Or perhaps it was Citi’s profits? On the verge of extinction, with it’s stock trading on the dollar menu, and now we are profitable? Or is it GE?
Is it the change to mark to fantasty accounting?
If I missed any other green shoots, please let me know.
For the record:
Have the prices in NJ dropped 42% from the peak – I would be buying right now.
The Fed Beige book? Economic activity is still dropping in all areas of the country, but in some areas not dropping as much as they were? What kind of gobbly-gook is that?
You know – we will recover – because once economic activity drops to ZERO index will become ZERO – not negative – hence complete recovery!!!
Same with manufacturing, it can only drop to zero.
kettle1 says:
April 17, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Re equity insurance,
That could be an interesting way for the government to trigger inflation. It could essentially put “virtual money” in the consumers hands. of course it only works for as long as the US Gov can support the debt. It should only cost a few trillion
Great IDEA!!!
1. I am buying a house for 300K, After that I appraise it for 1MIL.
2.Get insurance for it and refinance equity out – IT IS INSURED, right?
3. with “INSURED” equity – 700K I buy 700K house, refi for 2mil.
4. Rinse and repeat untill satisfied with final cash Number!!!!
it is all insured by “somebody??” (I assume goverment) so banks will lend easilly!!
I can retire in 2 month this way!!!
Maybe we are not in the 9th inning, baseball, but the 9th over, cricket.
BC (110)-
I can’t wait until they can sell people rustproofing for the underside of the slabs their houses sit on.
“After you sign the closing documents the lawyer bring you to another room, after-sell dept.; Gap Ins for housing.”
Can I be held as an accessory if I advise a client to kill his wife?
Just asking…
3b (128)-
Nice mausoleum.
BC (144)-
bi is the classic example of a guy who only has a hammer (a ball peen one, at that) in his tool box…so every problem appears to him to be a nail.
“Bi,
If you don’t understand the problem how do you arrive at a solution?”
I don’t think so if you are in Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, or one of the other Gulf states. In NJ, I would think so.
Clot [157],
LMAO.
#156 clot: Yes, you can be dead,and still paying for it.
BC (159)-
On second glance, I actually may have overestimated bi’s intellect.
I think we need to move into the realm of fruit flies for valid comparisons.
Hi All,
Sorry to back up to the hyperinflation topic of a few days ago, but I was wondering (as might others peeping on this blog) how this should affect home buying decisions?
Based on prices being 15-20% off peak (given a run up of ~150% from 2000 to 2006) and current economic conditions, it is a good idea then for a house hunter to jump in now if hyper-inflation will occur? Or would interest rates skyrocket as well, keeping house prices in check?
This is particularly of concern for those with large down payments.
If yes (buy now), how much should be put down if the buyer can put down up to 100% of purchase. If no (wait to buy), what should one do with the DP, and what % off from peak should be the entry point?
3b (160)-
Only the walking dead would pay for that crypt.
Not our auto czar?
“NEW YORK (Reuters) – Steven Rattner, who leads the Obama administration’s auto task force, was one of the executives involved with payments being probed by New York state and federal regulators in an alleged pension kickback scheme, a source familiar with the situation said on Friday.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE53G2X320090417
zombie banks, zombie homeowners.
Oh and that “magnificent home” comes with a 20k a year tax bill, and no back yard.
Springtime in Paris…when do we start getting this here:
PARIS (AP) – A court on Friday convicted 9 workers at Caterpillar France of hampering the freedom to work and 11 others of illegally occupying company grounds, and ordered them all fined euro200 ($265) each time they repeat such actions to protest layoffs.
The court action came after two days of protests at the plant in Echirolles, outside Grenoble in southeast France, with workers camping out in tents to protest the planned layoffs.
Last month, Caterpillar workers held four managers hostage for more than 24 hours to get their complaints heard, but no legal action was taken against them.
Workers at French Caterpillar plants are seeking a better deal in a plan to cut hundreds of jobs at the sites – part of thousands of layoffs at the Peoria, Illinois-based, company’s worldwide operations prompted by the economic downturn. Caterpillar has said it would reduce the 733 planned layoffs to 600 but negotiations continued.
“The goal was to re-establish a state of law,” company lawyer Bernard Gallizia said after the decision. Caterpillar had filed a complaint. He said negotiations would continue and work would resume Monday.
Radical protest actions have been spreading across France as more jobs are lost to the economic downturn.
In northern France, striking French workers angry over cutbacks blocked production Friday at a Toyota Motor Corp. plant, demanding better compensation for working fewer hours.
Picket lines blocked all four entrances to the factory in Onnaing, which makes Yaris cars, said Eric Pecquer, representative of the CGT union. He said 300 of the plant’s 2,700 employees took part in the protest.
Plant spokeswoman Christelle Blandin said some 80 workers started blocking trucks from entering the site Thursday night, causing a halt to production.
The workers want more compensation for so-called short-time contracts, intended to cut workers’ hours but avoid layoffs. Workers are usually paid for the hours they don’t work, but at a reduced rate.
Like many French car factories, the Toyota plant has slowed output because of sinking car sales as the auto industry suffers its worst crisis in decades.
Workers have been on strike for several days, but until Friday the plant was still operating at a reduced pace.
Blandin said an agreement on ending the conflict had won approval from two unions, but that some striking workers rejected it.
In recent months, French workers have locked up their bosses and gone on hunger strike to demand a better deal amid layoffs and other cutbacks by employers squeezed by recession.
On Thursday, 100 workers fearing layoffs locked up five bosses for 10 hours at a Hewlett-Packard subsidiary in eastern France. The workers at FM Logistic at Woippy, in the eastern Moselle region, freed their superiors after they promised to present new jobs proposals. Negotiations were deadlocked Friday evening.
RE: We need home equity insurance now
Sounds like a job for AIG (known as “American Insurance Group” by our president).
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2009/03/16/Obama-Geithner-to-try-to-halt-AIG-bonuses/UPI-15271237205409/
[162],
Buy a house as a place to live, not as a hedge for some other market variable.
The Hungarian’s and Icelander’s financed their houses based on cheaper market currencies, at that time. How did that work out? Remember all the Europeans who were to be the saviors of US RE? Well, they got a double whammy. If you believe in hyper-inflation utilize other market options.
Layoffs Watch ’09: RBS
Posted by Bess Levin, Apr 17, 2009, 1:34pm
RBS apparently laid off its entire Leveraged Finance Group globally yesterday, which, we’re told, “includes everyone (Group heads, MDs, VPs, Associates and Analysts) at their New York office, LA office, London headquarters and multiple other European offices. For some perspective, the Leveraged Finance Group at RBS pre-credit crisis was the premier leveraged finance platform in Europe for many years.”
http://dealbreaker.com/2009/04/layoffs-watch-09-rbs-1.php
149#, i asume you assume all their profits were directly deducted from TARP money. for JPM, it would take about 3 years to fully utilize that moeny. i don’t think that is the case at all. they need to pay 5% interest for TARP money.
remember each of these 4 mega banks has booked asset (and liabilities) aroun $2T.
> Is it the JP Morgan 2 billion profit? Gee well we gave you 25 billion. What did you dow with it?
Or perhaps it was Citi’s profits? On the verge of extinction, with it’s stock trading on the dollar menu, and now we are profitable? Or is it GE?
Layoffs Watch ’09: UBS
Posted by Bess Levin, Apr 17, 2009, 8:58am
UBS announced Wednesday it had plans to ax everyone (actual figure: 8-large or so), and apparently the Swiss are really moving their asses on this one. Supposedly “hardcore” cuts will start going down today.
http://dealbreaker.com/2009/04/layoffs-watch-09-ubs-3.php
Yellen says policymakers need to pop bubbles
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen said late Thursday that central banks need to deal with bubbles in asset prices before they get too big, although monetary policy may not be the best tool for the job.
Yeah Right, and take the wrath of politicians!!!
Staff Layoff Watch: Kirkland & Ellis
Friday, April 17, 2009 2:05 PM – By Elie Mystal
Reports started flowing in this morning about a round of staff cuts taking place today at Kirkland & Ellis.
Above the Law has now been able to confirm that staff layoffs did take place at Kirkland today. Staffers in Chicago, New York and D.C. were let go. Sources at the firm report that the layoffs were a “small percentage” of the firm’s overall staff complement, but weren’t able to tell us the final number of cuts.
http://abovethelaw.com/2009/04/staff_layoff_watch_kirkland_el.php
I read this somewhere..
If someone where to hand me $1 every second, it would take me roughly 30 Thousand years to accumulate 1 Trillion $$. 30 Thousand years is probably when Neanderthals existed.
We just blew a Trillion $ in the last 3 months!!
re: #162 – Revelations – Hyper-inflation if an when it comes will be sudden and it will be a stampede.
It will also mainly cause a rise in prices of commodities that are in limited supply and have high demand. Food,energy, and health care for example.
Housing is neither in short supply or high demand. Housing also has had its inflation already and is partially responsible for the inflation of everything else.
Corzine says 9K layoffs likely if state workers don’t agree to furloughs
Gov. Jon Corzine today said up to 9,000 state workers could be laid off if courts and public employee unions do not go along with his plans to furlough employees.
Corzine had previously said he was laying the groundwork for up to 7,000 layoffs in case no agreement is reached, but today said the number of job losses could be even larger. He reiterated that furloughs would be better for the workers and the public.
“My own argument to those folks is that we would be a lot better off taking a day off a month than we would be pushing back and having layoffs,” Corzine said in a radio interview on WOR. “I would like not to have a seven, eight, maybe as many as 9,000 people laid off, which will increase our unemployment rate almost a full point.”
Corzine has asked the unions to agree to a wage freeze and 12 furlough days in the coming fiscal year to save $500 million in his proposed budget and has already announced a schedule for two furlough days this spring. But state worker unions, led by the Communications Workers of America, have resisted those steps and staged protests against the governor.
Bob Master, a spokesman for Communications Workers of America, the largest state worker union, said today that unions “are prepared to do our fair share, but our members can’t do it all.”
“What they’re asking for in terms of furloughs and wage freeze is too much,” he said. “You still have to be guided by the principle of shared sacrifice.”
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/04/corzine_says_9k_layoffs_are_li.html
BC 168,
Thanks, but I was more interested in a financial argument. I can LIVE in an apartment, with rent increases capped by local ordinance. But if you wanted to buy eventually, would it be now (with hyper-inflation looming)? Or later for some reason.
I was thinking this hyper-inflation stuff, if true, might be THE argument for real estate right now. But I think the issues are complex, and I’m not smart enough to dissect the implications for RE.
[177],
On the flip side, what occurs if we are only in the beginning of mirroring Japan?
Thx Sean @ 175
So, if I’m reading you right, in a stable, steady state RE market there would be implications, but b/c of the unique and generalized cr@ppiness of NE RE, you don’t think hyper-infl will effect home prices by much. But don’t commodity prices factor into home values?
Revelations: To me there are only 2 indexes important for Real Estate.
Unemployment
Months of Supply
Until these both start reducing, Housing is depreciating asset.
Look at Zimbabwe to study the effects of hyperfinflation on real estate.
Also, if hyper-inflation is on the horizon, is that a case for maxing out a down payment, or putting as little down as possibly and doing something else with the money?
If hyperinflation is coming, you take on as much debt as possible.
#177 revelations: The problem with hyper-inflation, is that it will not be followed with wage infaltion. Housing is dead either way.
Rev (177)-
He DID give you a financial argument.
BC (178)-
If that is the case, I’d be thrilled.
The lost Japanese decade will seem like nothing compared to the slasher movie in which we currently find ourselves.
If hyperinflation is coming, you take on as much debt as possible.
The problem is, when it doesn’t come, you’re left with “as much debt as possible.”
Unless you are looking in Newark, Camden, Trenton or Irvington, the housing bottom has passed.
Also, if hyper-inflation is on the horizon, is that a case for maxing out a down payment, or putting as little down as possibly and doing something else with the money?
What happens to property taxes during hyperinflation?
The problem is, when it doesn’t come, you’re left with “as much debt as possible.”
———————————–
Correct, if it does not come and deflation happens then we are all screwed. Government can’t pay it’s debt during deflation, they will NEVER let it happen.
We @181
Well, we have some more things going for us than Zimbabwe, but point taken. As recent events show, nobody is immune from the laws of free market economics.
Unless you are looking in Newark, Camden, Trenton or Irvington, the housing bottom has passed.
Based on the data, you might actually have that backwards.
Clot [186],
I agree, turning Japanase is the lesser of all evils.
Why does (almost) every discussion here almost immediately drive straight into the mad max, absolutely worst case, nuclear armageddon scenario?
The exception being strollers. Guess babies and apocalyptic wastelands don’t mix.
#194
Because we would never be able to use our guns in the street openly without such a scenario. Too depressing to contemplate.
“Why does every discussion here almost immediately drive straight into the mad max, absolutely worst case, nuclear armageddon scenario?”
JB,
Because we are on the cutting edge.
Where are the friggin’ cops?
Sean says:
April 17, 2009 at 9:12 am
re: 77 Hudson.
I generally do a loop through Jersey City on my bike a few times a year, looks like they are going to finish the waterfront off there with a bridge and a park.
http://www.wirednewyork.com/forum/showpost.php?p=280782&postcount=3003
A good clue to what happens to real estate in a hyperinflationary scenario would be Argentina in the late 1990s.
Anybody knows what happened there?
#194
http://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.nsf/Angry-Young-Man-lyrics-Billy-Joel/86A973E0FB610D0A482568700025B91D
Because this is where the Angry Men are.
Based on the probability of outcome, making such a heavy handed wager on a hyperinflationary scenario would be significantly riskier than simply doing nothing at all. Hedging your portfolio for the possibility of somewhat elevated inflation is one thing, but going out and acquiring massive debt, or liquidating all savings as a bet for it? Insanity.
Clot @185
You’re right.
BC:
By “utilize other market options”, you mean ‘don’t buy’ (since one can rent), and dump the DP in something inflation indexed. (with all the disclaimers, etc.)
..assuming hyper-inflation, of course.
Shore Guy says:
April 17, 2009 at 9:29 am
Cindy, There is a wellknown beach community here in NJ called Long Branch.
Shore: goin’ early bird to Avenue in about 90 minutes….
http://www.leclubavenue.com/menu/prefix_menu.pdf
#179 Revelations – A devalued dollar may provide some room for wage inflation, and wage inflation could theoretically provide additional support for housing prices, however you need to be employed.
If we hit very high unemployment it will offset any gains due to wage inflation, since there won’t be demand for housing.
Also, imagine right now if the Federal Reserve allowed inflation to cut the spending power of the dollar in half by 2012, and then allowed house prices to remain “stable” at 2007 price levels for those 5 years between 2007 and 2012.
Homeowners would then feel relieved their home did not decline in value, however this really is an illusion because the buying power of any equity the homeowner has in the home is still cut in half.
If you are going to buy make sure you buy in a place that you want to live for a long time and then you will not have to worry about inflation or deflation after all we all need roofs over our heads.
grim @200
You refering to gobbling up as much debt as possible?
http://education.wallstreetsurvivor.com/Hyperinflation-Trading-Strategies
If hyper-inflation happens, I don’t think it will.
and dump the DP in something inflation indexed.
You don’t “dump” your down payment money anywhere. You save it, in a prudent manner, in a location that is appropriate for those funds.
Invest it somewhere? No. Dump it somewhere? Not on your life.
Down payment money is down payment money, it isn’t gambling money, it isn’t investment money.
One of my worst days here was reading the story of a guy who dropped his downpayment cash into a muni bond fund.
Right before it imploded.
Sick to my stomach.
rev,
the question is are you sure you can sustain yourself through the deflationary period we are currently in if it continues to worsen. Debt service can escalate rapidly in a deflationary period . timing hyperinflation or even very high inflation is like trying to time the top/bottom of a market.
#188 we: Nah, it is just finally really picking up steam here now.
Sean 204
Nice post. Plus hyper-inflation can’t be a great business environment.. I wouldn’t expect to see jobs making a huge comeback just because the buck is weaker.
Also, you’re argument would support a lower DP with the balance of savings going to an infl hedge or infl indexed investment. Right?
Rev (191)-
Right now, I’d make an even swap, Turbo Timmay for Mugabe. Put Mugabe in Treasury & we’d see some action, pronto.
Mugabe’s first move would probably be to put a hit squad on Bergabe.
“Well, we have some more things going for us than Zimbabwe, but point taken.”
grim (194)-
Two babies enter, one baby leaves?
Also, you’re argument would support a lower DP with the balance of savings going to an infl hedge or infl indexed investment. Right?
If the balance of your savings is going into a security, it ain’t hedging anything. It is a bet.
The purpose of a hedge is to offset another position, it ain’t your primary position.
#212 – Post of the day
grim @207
I guess the word “dump” came to mind when discussing USD hyperinfl. I meant what if you could buy a house outright… is it better that money is RE equity or somewhere else? That’s all.
Clot,
actually Mugabe’s tactics would be more likely to consist of have a hit put on his family while having bergabe watch. Mugabe plays hardball
vodka (216)-
Thanks. I forgot to think like a psychopath there for a minute.
RUWaiting says:
April 17, 2009 at 11:59 am
Re: [12] Maybe one of you financial gurus can explain this recent market rally in light of 6 million people being unemployed. Where or how are companies generating revenue (other than from faux accounting)? Seems like a serious case of irrational exuberance to me…..So like the over-priced home market…..I keep waiting, and waiting, and waiting…..
RU: everyone is lying; be afraid; don’t leave the house; hide gold in your body cavities
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2009/01/21/toscano/744nodeflationaryspiral012109.txt
clot,
http://tinyurl.com/5lwpo9
….don’t leave the house; hide gold in your body cavities
Have my Friday nights become that predictable?
/wash this…
“By “utilize other market options”, you mean ‘don’t buy’ (since one can rent)”
[201],
No, just offering additional alternatives. If you want to speculate, don’t use your house as margin. Based on your scenario, other options include; oil, grains, meats, softs, metals, crb index, short dollar, etc.. Again, your scenario.
My point, don’t purchase a house for a future, independent variable that may/may not surface. Buy the house based on its own underlying fundamentals/merits.
Anybody here planning to catch Dave Ramsey’s “Townhall for Hope” next week?
Go outside people….it is nice out there. You are clearly done working for the week!
#224
Out where?
Revelations says:
April 17, 2009 at 3:17 pm
grim @207
I guess the word “dump” came to mind when discussing USD hyperinfl. ‘
Rev: No, the word dump camp to mind when my colleague and I went to Bandu in Middletown for lunch. The place was brand new and immaculate. The only problem? It smelled like backed up sewer line. Do we leave? No way. I had my trusty 10% off coupon…..for the record, the 10% off ended up being $1.19…NO JOKE…..I need to lose some weight anyway…BOOYA
Grim 213
Well, like TIPS for example. (if you trust the gov’t indices)
BC 222,
I see, thx.
CHiFi 226
NICE!!!
“smelled like backed up sewer line”. Hope it wasn’t wafting from the kitchen or “dump” may come to mind again later this evening.
“Out where?”
Doyle,
Out in The Streets.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI8Wa-di3t4
Bob, I agree purchase something you want to own if the price reaches where you can currently afford it. I firmly believe that deflation will eventually find a bottom and inflation will pick up but I think timing this could be hard the window could be 3 yrs or 5 or 10 because of the external factors at play here. honestly I wish I had my own SPR facility like the government to store physical oil. I do think that when home prices fall to a good level relative to income it is a buying opportunity because eventual inflation will wipe out your debt and if it is quality real estate demand is static. The only places I have seen where buying looks good right now is Fl, some parts of CA, etc. NNJ and NYC are not there yet but I would imagine it is coming soon. But given the magnitude of the debt the US has and the trade deficit, inflation is the inevitable conclusion.
“I wish I had my own SPR facility like the government to store physical oil.”
jcer,
Funny, I had the same convesation a few weeks back. Yes, I would be taking delivery, at these prices, and storing. You are exactly right, timing, infl/defl, is a crap shoot.
conversation.
I’m thinking that IF you wanted to wait, saving the DP for a future purchase when prices return to “normal” is a relatively safe move. Even if inflation chews at the currency value of your DP, as long as it’s earmarked for an asset that is not rapidly inflating (house) it holds its value with respect to its purpose. And I think home prices wouldn’t rise in the high infl environment (if it comes) b/c a corresponding rise in interest rates would offset any wage growth that might push RE values higher.
Does this work?
Stop talking people, and run, not walk, run!! Do not let this one of a kind pride of ownership, charm abounds home get away. Make it yours today.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2852443&id=999999
gary: The one listed below was carefully selected and hand picked by me just for you.
It meets all of your demanding requirements. Don’t miss this once in a life time opportunity.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2737631&id=999999
Ellen-
I live in Whitemarsh. Whitemarsh seems to hold it’s value because it attracts a steady stream of residents from Philly. Another neat thing is that people that grew up here settle back into the area because prices never skyrocketed.
That being said, you probably will get a decent family home for under 200k soon. The nice thing is that the taxes are low and it’s a good place to live. We are close to everything.
The one thing that I miss is a walkable downtown. I miss being able to walk to the store/restaurant/bar, etc.
The biggest thing I am thinking is if we go the way of SA, Argentina or Uruguay in an inflationary situation real estate is good to own, initially not so much it in the slightly longer term Argentines who were heavily into real estate(Only prime) and didn’t lose it made out well, once deflation wiped out prices international people and wealth argentines did quite well on real estate. Mind you what I am saying really applies to prime FL, CA, NYC, Boston, Chicago, etc only places where prime real estate has strong demand. Argentina is unique because after the collapse the price of real estate became US dollars.
Rev [234],
IMO, when this market finally hits bottom there will be no V recovery, more like an elongated L. Remember, it’s the world’s slowest moving asset. Also, you are at more risk buying a year too early than 4 years too late. JMO.
#236 – $1.1M? Seriously? I’ve seen missile silos with more warmth and charm.
#230
Thanks BC, that video and my small cup of joe gave me an afternoon pick me up… Speaking of shows, I just had the wifie buy tickets when U2 comes through in September, and realized afterwards that I’ll be in Austin for a UT game.
Oh well.
Suiciding The Market
Posted by Tyler Durden at 2:31 PM
Zero Hedge presented some perspectives on how broken the market is yesterday. The trend continues as today’s quant deleveraging trade already finished (market neutral quants down 17% in March, April likely much worse). Currently momo quants and marginal institutions and retail are buying, driving on fumes, and about to suicide the market (there is a reason Zero Hedge used an ecosystem analogy previousy: currently there is utter disequilibrium in the market and it is getting worse with every uptick). The bagholders are already in place (nobody ever learns from prior mistakes). Marginal L/S quants are forcing the “rubber band” to snap, to use the words of Matt Rothman, hitting reversion programs intraday (as readers point out, “if it works, why go against it”), and selling negative ETF violently while buying the worst stocks, trying to force the biggest market squeeze in recent history. In the meantime the feedback loop between a technically driven rally and consumer confidence continues: market up, confidence up. Of course, that fact is too obvious to even need pointing out.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/suiciding-market.html
#240 toshiro: Really?? Come on now!! We are talking Bergen Co, blue ribbon, train town, and, new construction.
What you do not want to make memories that will last a lifetime in that gorgeous home?
As pret used to say, if you cannot afford to live in this area, and than just leave. (sarcasm off)
wow – what a comp killer, 1997 prices in Short Hills courtesy of….
http://www.circlingvulture.com/
Looking at rentals in the city this weekend. Hopefully it’s bye bye Hoboken.
BC,
This tune is more our speed..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xokeiep6yHU
Doyle [241],
I have tickets for that U-2 show.
BC @239
Thanks. In trying to understand hyper-infl, it was the “V” I was afraid of. Yours is among the sharpest minds on the blog in terms of reading the economic tea leaves, so appreciate your take.
JB,
Too depressing for me. I’m positive, searching for those mustard seeds.
#244 – Wow..
#244 – looks like the roof is going to cave in
Rev [248],
When you get your get bashed in, as long as I have, you realize that you are starting to get a headache.
your head bashed in.
#247
Enjoy BC! I’ll be knee deep in barbecue and beers. And College Football of course.
Here’s couple of comical Hoboken listings:
$2995 / 2br – STEPS TO PATH, NO FEE: GORGEOUS LARGE 2 BED/2 BATH (HOBOKEN)
http://newyork.craigslist.org/jsy/abo/1126028484.html
$2800 / 2br – Luxury & Spacious 2 BR/2Bath in Sky Club
http://newyork.craigslist.org/jsy/abo/1126007436.html
You can get a 2 BR in the city for those prices. Good ol’ Hoboken property tax increase must be working its magic on people.
Doyle [254],
Hook em Horns! Who they playing?
HE (242)-
“Suicide the market” may be 2009’s phrase of the year. Much more prosaic than last year’s “viva la vida”, too.
I’ve had a couple of days recently where zero hedge was the only thing keeping me from suiciding myself. There’s a lot of pain in taking a slice of SRS cake at a 2-handle…even though I know the pleasure phase isn’t too far away.
Sell in May and go away? Hell, there may be nothing left on WS by May 1 other than the carrion birds.
HE (242)-
Oh, boy. You can count on this. Zerohedge:
“The regulatory response from an impending quant collapse will be hilarious, as the administrations’ and the regulators’ very own recent misguided policies will be undoubtedly blamed for the next major leg down.”
BC:
The Buffs, not the game we were looking for, but conflicting schedules made it the only option.
Fun will be had regardless.
Clot,
Come on now, we all know the uptick rule will protect from any collapse
grim says:
April 17, 2009 at 6:28 am
Actually, the talking points answer is that Philly region didn’t see the same kind of bubble that the NY region did. I’m really not so sure I believe that, but it is what you’ll hear.
in our 8-month search, we found some realtors (and sellers) were completely unreasonable, and were acting as if bucks county was NJ or NY or something.
others, less so. the challenging is sifting through the annoying, clueless idiots.
#195 Nuclear armageddon: Nah, we already did that when we nuked Trenton. Gotta come up with something even better.
I can’t figure out why anyone would even consider buying RE anytime soon. The public pension funds are insufficient to pay benefits as required by law. They are not covered by the PBGC. They can only be made whole by an amazing market rally or increased payments from the taxpayers. So, property taxes can go to infinity until the whole thing collapses. Or am I missing something? But hey, it’s Friday and it’s a gorgeous day outside so why worry?!
Some homeowners see giving up as best option
Teresa Bondora and her family abandoned their two-story brick home in Atlanta rather than fall behind on their mortgage and $30,000 worth of home renovation debt.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30235263/
Grim unmod 255
“Some homeowners see giving up as best option’
kettle,
If I was a seller, staring across the table at you, a buyer, I would quickly realize that jingle mail was my best option.
262 kettle-
I think Clot touched on this before. People are not going to stay and make payments if housing values are not guaranteed to rise. Some of these people are struggling to make payments. No desire to struggle if it does not lead to a happy ending for them.
TPTB really don’t like us ok, jingle mail is the worst scenario for them. SaS will tell you GS will be all up in here if we keep talking like this.
#265 – I’d have to disagree. If people we’re thinking in a logical manner they would absolutely do that, just walk away. I think I would.
I’d bet most will do exactly what the woman in ket’s article did, burn through savings and acquire even more debt trying to hold on to a house that they can’t afford.
I think jingle mail, while certainly real, will never be more than a small portion of the foreclosures.
Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said ’we are all just prisoners here, of our own device’
And in the master’s chambers,
They gathered for the feast
The stab it with their steely knives,
But they just can’t kill the beast
Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
’relax,’ said the night man,
We are programmed to receive.
You can checkout any time you like,
But you can never leave!
“One of the many interpretations about Hotel California is the lyrics are about an insane asylum. Indeed that is a fitting description indeed for what the Fed and Treasury and the banks are doing.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Now banks are prisoners, of their own device.
d2b jcer,
the only way to keep this game going for much longer is to get cash to the people. of course this could have some nasty little side effects. But something like equity insurance or similar could be the way they go.
even more fun is the self reinforcing cycle that we are in is rapidly reducing tax revenue!
3b [236],
It’s perfect!! Let me get my checkbook and then I’ll call the agent! :)
Tosh,
the banks and GOV will have to address the jingle mail perception soon. walking on a house has lost the magority of its social stigma. if TPTB dont address that somehow, even the herd may begin to follow the logical thinkers before to long.
OT
got full fios TV last night ( we only had local channels before) when i called verizon and pulled a stu. I told them comcast offered a better deal, what could they do. They cut $15/month off my bill and gave me all the cable channels except for the movie channels.
OMFG, i was joking when i called TV a digital lobotomy, but hell thats about accurate. i couldnt believe the crap on. i would never actually pay for that crap.!!!!!
Stater 261,
Nah, we already did that when we nuked Trenton. Gotta come up with something even better.
something just seems wrong when we can discuss what city we have nuked and how mugabe might torture bergabe. guess i need to take add clots knob creek to my ketel habit…..
Wouldn’t nuking Trenton actually improve Trenton’s quality of life?
I’m getting soft in my old age.
just ordered a veggie burger instead of a grease Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy cattle burger…
SAS
#271 – ket if TPTB dont address that somehow, even the herd may begin to follow the logical thinkers before to long.
I think its going to take a lot of pain before it becomes acceptable.
TPTB are in a bit of a jam though, the J6P can spend all of his income servicing past debt or walk away from that to acquire new debt, but he can’t do both.
#219 chifi- “RU: everyone is lying; be afraid; don’t leave the house; hide gold in your body cavities”
My husband asks me why I read this blog, since we aren’t looking to buy and are no where near investing. Then I can quote gems like this to him, and he understands.
Thank you all. Friday night is off to a great start.
Has anyone here seen a show at the Bergen Performing Arts Center? If so, how is it for a concert and what is parking like Also, is there a decent place to eat close by?
One could release virulant microbes in Trenton, but, then, it seems redundant given that it already has our legislators.
“there may be nothing left on WS by May 1 other than the carrion birds”
With Apologies to the long-forgotton band Kansas:
Carion my wayward son?
clot – You ever heard of Andrew Beal, a banking billionaire from Texas who made his fortune buying distressed debt during the savings and loan crisis?
Buying Distressed Debt,
“You have to shut down the zombies, liquidate their assets.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/17/business/smallbusiness/17debt.html?_r=1&ref=global
Obama failure….err… I mean..
bank failure friday! yee haw !!
“Missouri-based American Sterling Bank closed by regulators”
http://tinyurl.com/ddb5cn
tosh,
you forgot the doomsday scenario….. J6P walks away from the house and then pays down debt and saves! (gasp of horror)
SAS
you might want to pick up a copy of this
The Zombie Survival Guide: Complete Protection from the Living Dead (Paperback)
http://www.amazon.com/Zombie-Survival-Guide-Complete-Protection/dp/1400049628/ref=cm_lmf_tit_1
bi says:
April 17, 2009 at 1:05 pm
126#, 3b, first, you know that unemploement number is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. second, it would be too late to declare the end of recession when dow is back to 14K mark.
third, more recent economic numbers besides stock indices show we are in early recovery stage if you listen to bernanke and other insiders. (they did not explicitly mention that but you have to read between lines.)
you can’t read cat and the hat but you can read between the lines of ‘insiders’????
kettle1 says:
April 17, 2009 at 8:07 pm
SAS
you might want to pick up a copy of this
The Zombie Survival Guide: Complete Protection from the Living Dead (Paperback)
_______________________________________
I read this book, it is really funny and entertaining.
I can’t stand people like this. They’re nothing but vultures taking advantage of good people. Someone needs to reign these dirtbags in.
Rick Williamson, a Chicago banker turned junk-loan buyer, knew the name-calling would start again when he moved to foreclose on the Fayetteville Athletic Club, a sprawling, family-run gym and spa complex in this corner of northwest Arkansas.
“We have put our heart and soul, and every penny we have earned, into building this place,” Robert Shoulders said of his gym. “Vulture, bottom feeder,” Mr. Williamson said, recalling insults thrown his way during his years hunting for bargains in distressed real estate.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/17/business/smallbusiness/17debt.html?_r=1&ref=business
BFF!
And another, `cause they come in pairs like that.
I wonder if the reason we usually see 2 failures on BFF is because that is all the have staff for.
I just saw something that makes my blood boil; a picture of “That One” shaking hands with Hugo Chavez. This coming on the heels of the disclosure of our interrogation techniques and entreaties to those commies in Cuba. What the hell is going on? Cheney (you all will really come to appreciate this rock ribbed American patriot one day) is right. “That One” doesn’t give a tinker’s damn about all the work the Bush administration put forth to make us safe. He’s consorting with leftist commies, dammit. I don’t like this one bit.
272 – Ket – We all use gallows humor here because we all know we are in trouble. We just aren’t really sure how bad it’s going to get so we overshoot, hoping it won’t be as bad as we think.
Delusional Spring Lake…
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/5-Ocean-Ave-S_Spring-Lake_NJ_07762_1107342638
tosh, you would be surprised what gubmit staffing has to do with scheduling like this.
It’s very expected, and you can’t rattle their cages or the peons will ask for transfers and you’d have to deal with all the crappy people left.
Voila! Two is a good number. If things get bad, there will be transfers first, then a doubling on Friday.
Oooh, I don’t think I was supposed to write that.
I’m just overwhelmed with sorting junk.
I’m going back to my bologna sandwich making.
SAS, you have any leftover veggie stuff? I’ll trade you for some Malwart bologna.
2.2 Mil crack house in Hoboken.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Hoboken_NJ_07030_1106382456
Sean,
I know that Spring lake house and used to jog past it. It is about the ugliest one in town.
Shore – I love Spring Lake spent allot of time there many summers past, and I proposed to my wife on the beach nearby in Sea Girt.
Parker House rules!
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/nva/bik/1127684995.html
Is there any way to tell by looking if this this can actually go 35 for any sustained time…like maybe 15 miles?
this this = this bike
Sean,
I prefer the beach area in Sea Girt to Spring Lake, and prefer Avon to both of them. Except the downtown of Spring Lake is the second best at the Shore, behind Main Ave. in Ocean Grove.
In Boston it would be Parker House Rolls.
Gary, you just have to have this for your beautiful mausoleum:
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/doc/art/1127531868.html
At that bargain basement price, you should get several.
Purple and yellow is to die for.
Sean,
Back in the day The Columns (Columns by the Sea, officially) was a great place, up in Avon. Did you ever get there?
But I’m no art critic. I had this original painting from a client. It was one of those 70’s things that they shoved in piles in the hallway closets, but it was on inventory, so they couldn’t get rid of them. The auditors used to laugh when they checked the art. So some wise guy would kick the glass and it would crack and then voila…they could get rid of it or give it away.
I took one home, and tossed it on garbage day.
The neighbor told me he reglassed it and sold it for thousands on ebay.
Life.
Pat,
You are being rather harsh about the colors. I will have you know that we used to have one very similar to this…
on our refrigerator.
And our daughter was very proud of it, as was her 2nd-grade teacher.
Shore – The Columns on Sunday after the Bennies when home, always good food. My family has lots of history down the shore, something we can talk about at the next GTG.
You asked earlier about the Bergen Performing Arts Center, used to be the John Harms Center. Englewood has a few restaurants, not sure what you are looking for, checked the schedule are you going to see Joe Cocker?
Shore – The Columns on Sunday after the Bennies when home, always good food. My family has lots of history down the shore, something we can talk about at the next GTG.
You asked earlier about the Bergen Performing Arts Center, used to be the John Harms Center. Englewood has few restaurants, not sure what you are looking for, up the hill in Engelwood Cliffs and Fort Lee might be better for restaurants. I checked the schedule are you going to see Joe C. on the 29th?
No. Was just looking at alternate venues for later in the year. I am growing tired of huge places.
Sean,
The best time to be at the Shore is October through April. Second best is September and May. June, July, and August are what they are.
Well, I am sitting in an all night line, hoping to get a membership at the town pool. So it is a 24 hour day for me. Maybe more. Just like my days in Biglaw.
Only the town will not require you to be back again tomorrow night, and the one after that, and the one after that, and…
Sean (281)-
Oh yeah. He made an absolute killing during RTC. He did large what I did on a much, much smaller scale.
Of course, he had more money and bigger stones.
vodka (283)-
That scenario is actually what I insist my short sale clients do. Get out from under the house (by any means possible), then live frugally and begin saving and doing what it takes to eventually repair the broken credit.