Preliminary May sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey (GSMLS) is in. Please note that this data is subject to revision.
The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 500, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.
(click to enlarge)
The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.
(click to enlarge)
The third graph displays only May sales, 2000 to 2009 YOY.
(click to enlarge)
The fourth graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2009.
(click to enlarge)
The fifth graph displays the year over year change in inventory on a month by month basis.
(click to enlarge)
The sixth graph displays the year over year change in sales on a month by month basis.
(click to enlarge)
The last graph displays the absorption rate (not seasonally adjusted), in months:
(click to enlarge)
Bonus Graphs!
March Sales By County (log scale):
(click to enlarge)
Feeling Fristy
Green Shoots?
Year over year inventory may be choppy, but it is clearly trending downwards.
Unfortunately, sales continue to trend downwards as well.
Sussex actually saw a year over year *increase* in sales, from 112 in May of last year to 127 (prelim) this year. This is the first time we saw a year over year increase on a county level this down cycle.
grim,
Enough with the cognitive dissonance. How about some good news for a changes
IMHO, we’re not going to see the 20% YOY declines continue into the summer. Based on contracts, I think we’re going to start to see closed sales flatten out towards mid to late summer.
Unfortunately, I’m not sure that positive trend will be maintained if mortgage rates keep rising.
kettle:
Phillies vs. Mets- T, W, TH
Grim 4 Did you just call a bottom?
Mike,
I had called a bottom in sales once before…and I was wrong. (I believe it was in the June/July 2007 timeframe)
Look at the sales pace graph, during this downturn we’ve clawed back towards flat twice now. The first time in early 2007, and the second time towards the end of 2008. Both these times failed to establish a real bottom, despite being accompanied by lots of “bottom” calls.
Based on the contracts numbers, we’re going to head back towards that line. The 10c question is, will we stay there? I think the answer is going to do with where mortgage rates are moving.
Grim as far as Sussex we have seen greater price declines than the BC crowd & train towns.A 300K home in boom can now be had for 170 to 220. As most post here let the prices fall & sales will happen. By the way that is 3x income for the area.
Poor Warren County. BTW, where is Warren County?
Grim 7 if that is what you think will be the determining factor I think it would be safe to say that the bottom is not in. I see rates going up in future, but you never know.
Some Bergen numbers from NJMLS (SFH, Condo, Coop)
May Solds
1989 – 615
1990 – 637
1991 – 710
1992 – 679
1993 – 598
1994 – 728
1995 – 613
1996 – 687
1997 – 765
1998 – 772
1999 – 743
2000 – 786
2001 – 736
2002 – 847
2003 – 713
2004 – 807
2005 – 873
2006 – 808
2007 – 824
2008 – 541
2009 – 430 <- Worst showing in 20 years, even fewer sales than during the last downturn.
Stu 9 don’t know, but very few could find my place either.
Posted a house about a year ago tall grass house on my block. Owner left about 5 monthes before, just came on the market REO today. At this rate the banks will drag this out for years of a bottom dragging trend for years.
(Bergen/NJMLS cont)
May Average/Median Sale Price
2000 – $317,594/$245,000
2001 – $327,738/$284,025
2002 – $399,291/$325,000
2003 – $435,430/$350,000
2004 – $467,494/$399,000
2005 – $565,972/$452,000
2006 – $625,504/$489,500
2007 – $581,202,$475,000
2008 – $545,113/$442,000
2009 – $503,880/$400,000
(Bergen/NJMLS cont)
May Contracts
1999 – 999
2000 – 977
2001 – 1075
2002 – 1022
2003 – 1030
2004 – 1072
2005 – 1149
2006 – 1050
2007 – 963
2008 – 770
2009 – 763
My 13, I have to proof read!(brain dead tonight) but you get the point.
“At best this analysis appears specious. I draw from this one conclusion – and no more. Do not buy in Summer 2009, Otherwise I see this as analytical masturbation.”
ChiFi,
As usual, without any regard for any type of gradual incrementalism, you have barked out the most declarative, oversimplified, critical summation you could muster, all totally devoid of substance. In all honesty, the manner in which you present yourself here is as a pompous d1ck hole.
Our report was purposely left open-ended to the reader’s interpretation. Most here appreciated that feature but apparently you have no use for it since you already know, for a fact, that “prices will continue to fall this summer” without ever attempting to elaborate or share “why” or “how”. We should just all believe you because you stuck your thumb in the air and said so with conviction. Give me a break.
If you mis-interpreted the findings of the analysis, that’s your deficiency. Not to mention that the whole thesis, commissioned by the gracious host of this blog, was intended for your benefit in the first place. It’s too predictable that you make an immediate effort to trash it, without first attempting any thought-provoking discussion about it.
Grim (15) –
Definitely see a sign of at least one green shoot in there. The number of contracts seem to be flattening out. First round of knife catchers? Wonder how many will actually close.
The sales numbers are horrific though.
Duh. Saw above, you have addressed that point.
Grim-
wow bottom call.
are you saying a bottom in sales volume, or price?
#13 mikeinwaiting,
I’ve seen houses with tall grass in Watchung, Westfield, Basking ridge, and Bernardsville.
Green shoots?
#20 – Volume, not price. I think we’re still a long way off the bottom in terms of pricing.
from previous thread:
bob, how can you keep locking for so long? how much premium do you have to pay up front to lock in $950 price?
if you were so much locked-in, why every bearish comment on gold will immediately make your rant?
>How can I be gambling if I am hedged? My price is locked in. The market could drop to $300 tomorrow, I wouldn’t care. On the flip side, if this did occur, where do you think the Dow will be trading?
Rates, unemployment, tougher lending standards & a lot of bank REO waiting in the wings. Sales may flat line but sales of only the cheapest priced homes forcing prices lower. On another note 5 bd just monster house on my block now REO. Know it well & the owner, moved down south left it for the bank 24k taxes in Vernon!
Did the wood floors in this one it is a great house now 799 started 1.3 mil if I remember right. Any takers? John…..
safe just give them time a lot of time.
grim (4)-
After the second repricing today (one which I correctly called in the AM), all the mortgage guys in the office once again declared it beer-thirty and repaired to the local watering hole.
Two days last week, they also declared beer-thirty before 2 PM.
Anecdata:
1. Virtually every transaction in my office is now a short sale.
2. Several mid-tier mortgage shops in my area are declaring BK, based on the fact that last week’s bloodletting completely blew out multi-million $$$ pipelines. Today’s action is just piling on.
3. There are no new refi apps. There are very few new purchase money apps. When the borrower doesn’t hear a rate under 5%, they hang up.
4. Sales will be taking another disastrous leg down. This Summer will be the Summer of the living dead.
Clot you want to see a blood bath check out my area.
mike (8)-
I know an appraiser that’s working on a big study of Sussex for some lenders trying to plot the trend. She describes the action until now- and the action to come- as “Armageddon”.
Clot,
FWIW, I agree.
Job losses still marching onwards. Underemployment rampant.
As before, now at hits home: MIL and SIL both pink slipped.
ARMs still adjusting, rates going up (it appears)
I don’t see strengths in our economy – what I do see is the taxman getting hungrier and hungrier.
Of course (as some here postulate) I am admittedly NJREreport biased.
sl
now IT hits home… not yet awake…
sl
sl (30)-
Sometimes a donkey punch is just a donkey punch.
“Grim 4 Did you just call a bottom?”
grim, best rereead your own historical NYT headline paper.
SAS
Clot 29 Would love to get info on its completion if possible. That is how I have been seeing it in real time. I will be in my rental for another 18 monthes by then who knows.
is everyone and their grandmother doing commercial short positions?
and we got John boy pumping his bonds on a beach out on copiague, long island.
:P
SAS
SAS 35 it would seem so.
and John that is a horse of a different color.
Don’t use horse metaphors when describing John. It just eggs him on.
Clot what was I thinking. That should be good for a good story line.
veto that,
first off son, thanks for the effort you and kettle1 did for the boards. as with everything, we all should take data with grains of salt. wether ionized or fleur de sel….
as for shytown, he is an alright cat, sometimes says things in odd ways. he has been here long to these boards.
believe it or not, so has that reinvestor101 bloke, and sometimes through RE101 silly talk, he actually says witty things… ye a broken clock is right twice a day.
SAS
I hope the Realtors up here don’t know they sold 15 more houses in May. They will have the sheeple running to buy.
man, these boards are sleepy tonight….
SAS
mike,
i doubt they can count that high
I don’t think grim should call bottoms. My wife calls my bottom like 4 times a day, and it just disrupts my work.
BTW, veto & kettle1, great work. Don’t let a few hecklers impede your illuminating and skillful contributions here.
“these boards are sleepy tonight…”
yawn, i had more fun using encryption & Ku-bands.
and you think your wee blackberry is secure? ha ha ha.
SAS
sas (41)-
Sorry it’s so sleepy here. I keep going to my front windows and checking the parked cars on either side of my house.
When veto and vodka start adding sharks and stick people to their graphs, that’s when I’ll know they’ve hit the big time.
Somebody should make sure Sue Adler is kept well-updated on their work.
Hey, sas: wanna see economic warfare when the momentum in the battle switches to the other side? Look at this:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/30-years-mortgage-just-passes-5.html
Damn the helicopters. Bergabe is gonna have to use V-2 rockets for the next round of QE.
One thing I know for goddamn certain: the bond vigilantes will win.
And the aftermath will be pure devastation.
How ‘come bi and Frank don’t come here and bust me on my TBT play?
Here are my green shoots from the last 48 hours
1) went to penangs in edison on Sunday. the place is usually full by 12:30 with lines to be seated by 1 PM. place was only half full when we left at 1:30
2) I heard from someone that the average family’s credit card debt at his church is 28k. that’s from over 1,000 families primarily living in Basking Ridge, Warren, Green Brook, Berkeley heights, and Long Hill township
the church did an anonymous survey.
3) a house was foreclosed in my parent’s 55+ community in South jersey. first one ever, and there are more in the pipeline.
Green shoots indeed.
1. Grim, Thanks for the May #s/graphs!
2. Colbert’s monoluge from Iraq, broadcasting from Saddam’s former palace: “I took a look around at the palace and have to say I really like Saddam’s taste in decorating. There’s so much marble and gold I thought I was watching Real Housewives of New Jersey.”
3. Yields are likely heading up on US Treasuries and, in turn, mortgage rates.
monologue
im hours late, but man, i just laughed big-time at this from earlier
toshiro_mifune says:
June 8, 2009 at 8:32 am
A follow-up winner quote from the NYT article;
Mr. Weinstein has been advising two brothers in their late 20s who wanted to buy a $700,000 apartment with $250,000 from their parents. But their parents’ investment portfolio has lost so much value that they now can give only $50,000. Since the brothers make about $45,000 a year each, they are now shopping for a $500,000 apartment.
Ahhhh…. another 17 hour day of job searching from the gulag. See you all at 0700, don’t forget your axe and be sure to eat your alloted 140 calorie rations.
gary (53)-
May I suggest some Solzhenitsyn for bedtime reading?
One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovitch is a great start.
clot, champ, you gotta ignore that racist imbecile frank.
i know it’s difficult, because he spews so much garbage and this blog has a large readership and you dont want people buying into his lies …
but it’s best if you ignore him.
he’s a racist phony. biggest fraud on the board. i just shouted all of this at the gas station he works at on Route 17. he threw a cup of coffee at me
17 veto – chifi trashed what you did because kettle’s name was on it. He’s been jumping all over kettle for any reason or no reason for lo these 24 months or so. Kettle, you should have attended a pseudo-ivy; maybe he’d hold his fire then.
“are you saying a bottom in sales volume, or price?”. Not speaking for grim, but I think the math demands a continued drop in prices after sales hit bottom.
lookie at this one in Watchung.
http://www.trulia.com/property/1039071313-468-Watchung-Ave-Watchung-NJ-07069
I’m pretty sure I was in this place 2 years ago at a much higher list price. How many houses with pink bathrooms and those pavers can there be on Watchung Ave?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYlF5KI3rO1Y
June 8 (Bloomberg) — The BRICs are buying dollars at the fastest pace since before credit markets froze in September, protecting exports even as leaders of the biggest emerging markets consider alternatives to the U.S. currency.
Brazil, Russia, India and China increased foreign reserves by more than $60 billion in May to limit currency gains as the first global recession since World War II restricted exports, data compiled by central banks and strategists show. Brazil bought the most dollars in a year, India’s reserves gained the most since January 2008 and Russia added the most foreign exchange since July.
From the Record:
Filene’s Basement to close Paramus store in about a week
The Filene’s Basement stores in Paramus and Elizabeth are expected to close in about a week as a result of the company’s bankruptcy.
K&G Acquisition Corp., an affiliate of Men’s Wearhouse, won a bankruptcy auction to buy the Filene’s Basement chain for $67 million over the weekend. While K&G plans to keep operating most of the chain’s stores under the Filene’s name, the Paramus store at Bergen Town Center and the Jersey Gardens store in Elizabeth are two of six that will close.
…
Aside from Paramus and Elizabeth, the other stores to be shut are in Baltimore and the Massachusetts towns of Hyannis, Peabody and Saugus. It is not clear how many employees will lose their jobs.
From the Press of Atlantic City:
Report: N.J. auto dealerships to shed 8,000 jobs this year
The retail automotive industry in New Jersey is expected to shed more than 8,000 jobs and contribute 18 percent less in state and local taxes in 2009, with the average dealership making $5 million less in sales this year, according to a report released Monday by a nonprofit trade association.
“It’s fair to say there has never been a more desperate moment in the history of auto retailing in New Jersey,” Jim Appleton, president of the Trenton-based New Jersey Coalition of Automotive Retailers, said in the report.
From the Wall Street Journal:
Appraisals Roil Real Estate Deals
Appraisals are becoming one of the biggest obstacles for Americans trying to sell their homes, refinance their mortgages or tap into home-equity credit lines.
During the housing boom, appraisers often complained of pressure from lenders to inflate home-value estimates to justify dubious mortgage lending. Now, some people in the mortgage business — and some borrowers — say the pendulum has swung too far the other way.
Patti Sanders, an aerospace engineer in Oakdale, Calif., knew prices were down sharply but said she was “flabbergasted” recently when her 3,100-square-foot Victorian home was appraised at $250,000, compared with $635,000 assayed two years earlier. The new estimate prompted a lender to reject her application for a refinancing that would have lowered her mortgage payments about $400 a month.
Lenders burned by huge losses from defaults now are pressing appraisers to be more conservative. And appraising itself is more difficult with home prices fluctuating rapidly and transactions few and far between in some markets; sale prices from a few months back may no longer reliably indicate the value of nearby homes.
“If history is no longer valid, then it is very difficult to get good and accurate values,” said Mark Rattermann, an appraisal trainer in Indianapolis.
John Rooney, an appraiser in Phoenix, said about half the recent appraisals he has done for people seeking to refinance have been too low to allow it. Applying to other lenders is likely to cost borrowers $350 or more for another appraisal.
Valuation disputes are also throwing a monkey wrench into some sales. Chris Rubis, a real-estate agent in Fairfield County, Conn., said one client recently accepted an offer of about $750,000 on a four-bedroom, four-bathroom home. But the appraisal, which was done by someone outside the local area, came in last week at $700,000. That might require the buyer to come up with more cash for a down payment.
“It’s opened a whole new door for negotiation,” Mr. Rubis said.
…
The situation became more complicated on May 1 when the appraisal industry adopted the Home Valuation Code of Conduct. These new rules apply to mortgages that will be owned or guaranteed by government-backed mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which recently have accounted for about two-thirds of all new home loans.
Fannie and Freddie agreed to the code last year after New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo accused them of failing to ensure that appraisers were shielded from pressure to inflate their estimates.
The code bars loan officers, mortgage brokers or real-estate agents from any role in selecting appraisers. This has encouraged lenders to outsource the selection to appraisal-management companies, or AMCs, which take a sizable cut of the appraisal fee. As a result, appraisers are under pressure to “do it faster, do it cheaper,” said Bill Garber, a spokesman for the Appraisal Institute, a trade group.
47#, the market will bust you just as srs did to you. just kidding.
actually, i don’t think you can have much gain or loss from here.
you were good if you bought under 40 but you would do equally well or even better if you buoght any sector etfs at that time.
all disclimaers apply even though bc bob said it was not necessary for me.
>Clotpoll says:
June 8, 2009 at 11:51 pm
How ‘come bi and Frank don’t come here and bust me on my TBT play?
“I turned down a $1.3 million all-cash sale from a buyer who wanted me to cut the price by $50,000,” Spencer said yesterday as he showed a visitor the 8,000-square-foot unfinished penthouse at the top of the 43-story, 270-unit building at 15th Street and South Penn Square.
Spencer told the bargain-hunting buyer that he “wasn’t going to destroy the values we built into this project,” which cost his Arden Group about $300 million.
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/business/homepage/20090609_Luxury_high-rise_near_Dilworth_Plaza_dedicated.html
From the Record:
Biden gaffe: New rail tunnel being built for cars?
That new tunnel? The one NJ Transit has been touting for years? That the Federal Transit Administration made a huge commitment to on Monday?
It’s for cars.
Or so Vice President Biden apparently thinks.
Biden had just finished telling reporters on a conference call Monday that federal stimulus money might have gone out slower in the past few months than some people liked because, “We don’t end up with any major glitches.”
Then The Record had a chance to ask about an environmental group’s complaint that Amtrak would not be able to use the new Hudson River tunnel – which is benefitting from a provision of the stimulus bill increasing the Federal Transit Administration’s debt limit — because it doesn’t go to Penn Station.
Biden said Amtrak was getting its share of stimulus money and more projects would be announced in a few days. Then he offered this:
“Look, this is designed, this totally new tunnel, is designed to provide for automobile traffic,” Biden said. “It’s something, as you know, up your way, that’s been in the works and people have been clamoring for for a long time.”
DL (63)-
There’s another soldier who will be carried out on his shield.
Clot: New handle = spit coffee. Nearly choked over drape cleaning post yesterday.
From same article:
By contrast, the 40 condos at the Murano at 21st and Market Streets that will be auctioned June 27 start at $249,000, with prices averaging about 50 percent of what they were listed for originally.
Spencer also says that he’ll likely lose half of 37 pending agreements – “for a variety of reasons, including being unable to get a mortgage, and other things I cannot do anything about.”
grim (64)-
I’m pretty sure it’s just a matter of time before Biden opens his mouth and starts an international incident.
My best guess says he can bring N Korea or Iran to the brink of firing missiles.
[23],
Dec, 09′. Paid $40 per contract, approx 4%. Don’t you wish you paid 4% when the dow was 14K?
My only rant is idiots make comments on a daily basis. They burrow in their hole when the market advances, yet chirp when the market retraces. Simply clowns. 90% of the time markets trade in a channel. Who wants to listen to experts who have zero skin in the game, as markets channel trade? This market has approx 5-6 years left in its bull run. Why the ludicrous comments regarding day to day, typical market noise?
I’ll say it again;
You have 3 options;
1) Get long and follow the trend
2) Get short, contra-trend
3) If you are clueless, buy straddles
If none of the above, STFU.
“How ‘come bi and Frank don’t come here and bust me on my TBT play?”
Because they are two buffoons. What else can you say regarding individual’s who have more interest in another’s market positions as compared to their own? Tells me they are bench players.
john,
what entry-level benz you drive?
Interesting, Congress is discussing the severity of penalties for any American refusing to buy Health Insurance. Coupled with penalties for any American refusing Government sponsored treatment, should be a significant change to US Health Care. Arguing that the treatment makes you sick, is not acceptable. Well he promised change and that it definitely is.
Yikes I have a Mercedes SL Convert, BMW 5 Series and a big GMC SUV.
Beach/Cruise Car – Benz
Wedding/Drive to Work Car – BMW
Haul the kids/Snow Car – GMC
JB,
Just a thought. If gold is mentioned, either by myself or anybody else, please place in mod, at least for the next 4 years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_WgOabfKBoY
Warren Buffet and Bill Gross following “our strategy for last nine months. Not everyone is shorting. Warren is right about insane yields, I only bought one muni right at the hour of the highest spread, I got a 1990 10K 30 year 7.75% NY GO Muni, that is around the same as 13% tax free with almost zero risk. Warren Buffet is a smart man, RE returns 3-5 a year appreciation at a great risk of capital and is taxable, tax free he was locking in double the return with 1/10 the risk. The rich folk ain’t buying speck homes until spreads normalize in pref stocks and bonds. What is the point of a big headache when I can click a button and get double the return with no work and less risk.
SO how does obama play this one? What stops dear leader from firing off a few rounds of artillery barrages or a few long range missiles in we start boarding NK ships?
WASHINGTON (AP) — At the risk of triggering a military confrontation, the Obama administration is pressing for new U.N. steps aimed at cutting off North Korea’s ability to peddle its nuclear wares, including an arrangement to interdict air and sea shipments of nuclear materials and hardware to and from North Korea.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iwlhL35A2ztIHM3SXt-k0qKVfuMgD98MP2G00
SAS,
whats your take. Seems like a timely assassination or a preemptive strike is what you end up with when you play hardball with NK and dear leader who has little to lose by going all in.
.
From the Philly Inquirer:
The Center City high-rise condo market may be soft these days, but Residences at Ritz-Carlton developer Craig Spencer won’t let it get the better of his bottom line.
“I turned down a $1.3 million all-cash sale from a buyer who wanted me to cut the price by $50,000,” Spencer said yesterday as he showed a visitor the 8,000-square-foot unfinished penthouse at the top of the 43-story, 270-unit building at 15th Street and South Penn Square.
Spencer told the bargain-hunting buyer that he “wasn’t going to destroy the values we built into this project,” which cost his Arden Group about $300 million.
“I knew that the minute he closed, he’d tell me not to do the same thing for anyone else,” he said.
http://www.philly.com/philly/business/20090609_Luxury_high-rise_near_Dilworth_Plaza_dedicated.html
#14,
So prices in Bergen Co. are at 2005 level??
Reading this blog + 9.4% unemployment, I would think we are down to 2000 at most.
You call this a recession?? Give me a break.
whats your take. Seems like a timely assassination or a preemptive strike is what you end up with when you play hardball with NK and dear leader who has little to lose by going all in.”
i’m no prophet. but, i think NK are paper tigers. Just like the ol’ Russians back in the day. They put up good shows and act like radicals, but they tend to be smarter and softer when it time to tango. Besides, the world has come to a general conclusion that something might have to be done with NK. Could be good for several billion for the boys over at Lockheed.
I’m more concerned about Pakistan. I told you we got ISI all over the Maharashtra. Planing something for the military? doing smuggling? i know they are doing some smuggling with the Maharashtra underground, doing delivery to middle east (Saudi & Jordan) & Europe (not sure of final destinations with Europe)
SAS
This ain’t much of a recession, yet Timmy G has all his guns firing, then again maybe he prevented the great depression, who knows.
frank says:
June 9, 2009 at 8:45 am
#14,
So prices in Bergen Co. are at 2005 level??
Reading this blog + 9.4% unemployment, I would think we are down to 2000 at most.
You call this a recession?? Give me a break.
and they ain’t smuggling drugs.
SAS
issue with PRK is interesting and will test B.O.’s rhetorical and diplomatic skills, and may well in the end test his military leadership skills. Sanctions are not worth much if they are not backed up with concrete actions to seal off a nation. For North Korea, this involves not only the usual things like shutting down banking conduits but also physically stopping goods from moving in and out.
To the north, China can shut down the border. To the south, ROK can do the same. Both can then allow “legitimate” goods to flow.
That pushes PRK to use the seas, and there things get tricky. A blockade is, by definition, an act of war. We could play the semantic game of calling it a quarantine, but that is just window dressing.
I don’t think that Kim wants to have his nation destroyed in a war. Then again, he may see an opportunity to win and decide to take the chance.
B.O. isn’t on the campaign trail anymore, he is running with the big dogs, and there is precious-little room for error.
It would be well neigh impossible to win reelection with the slogan, “Yes we can overcome the loss of South Korea to the communists.” Such an event would shake the very core of our relationships with so many nations under our “security umbrella.” Mr. I was an Illinois state senator until recently better not fcuk up this calculation.
ok, back to RE.
i don’t want some wanna be rookie putting Datura stramonium in my salad.
SAS
“So prices in Bergen Co. are at 2005 level??”
Looks like closer to 2004 ans approx 20% off peak. Recession, no. Disaster, yes.
and
SAS,
The ISI is a nest of vipers, as untrustworthy as the day is long. Pakistan is a top made of misfired clay spinning too quickly, and I suspect it is a matter of when it blows apart, not if, and how many other nations get sucked into the abyss.
SAS (80) –
Isn’t Maharashtra a state in India? So, are you saying that ISI is colluding with the Indian underworld?
89 in Mod JB (link to recent Stiglitz)
Victorian,
Shocked! Shocked?
re: #76 – kettle1 – Last time we stopped a North Korea ship it was carrying a load of Scud missles to an ally in War on Terror Yemen. GWB decided to let it go. Most of the North’s weapons customers are allies.
Also who needs nukes? Ten million people in the Seoul area are held hostage by the North, within minutes they would all be obliterated by the ensuing artillery barrage that would occur if we decided to strike the North.
It is estimated by Jane’s International Defense Review that if North Korea launched an all-out barrage from it’s 13,000 or so pieces of artillery and missile launchers, it could achieve an initial fire rate of 300,000 to 500,000 shells per hour into the Seoul area.
The North keeps most of its 1.2-million-man army the fifth largest standing in the world right near the border, ready for a invasion of the south. Without using weapons of mass destruction of our own we might not be able to stop them.
John,
Any FASB news?
These guys think the income gap was caused primarily by access to education, not globalization.
VOX:
Education and technology: Supply, demand, and income inequality
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3640
“US economic inequality has been on a roller coaster ride during the past century. Wage inequality and educational wage differentials decreased from around 1910 to 1950. They remained fairly stable until about 1980, after which economic inequality soared. The contrasting descent and rise of economic inequality in the twentieth century is linked to the history of educational attainment.”
Sean,
There is no need for PRK to capture Seoul. If they blitz south, and surround it, the populace will turn on itslef faced with no water, electric, food etc.
The key for North Korea is to push all the way to the southern tip as quickly as possible. If they can create a “hopeless” situation within 48 hours or so, it would be interesting to see whether the “world community” would have the willingness to spend what would be necessary to invade and retake the south. We did Inchon once, but that was a different time and place.
For all the handwringing, the destruction of ROK would provide competitive economic advantages to Japan, China, etc.
Back to the grindstone.
This may prove to be a useful new toy.
Database Holds Information on Local Property Tax
A new online Web site, which provides free access to information on local property taxation in all 50 states, was announced June 8 by the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and the George Washington Institute of Public Policy.
The Web site allows users interested in a specific state to view the information through state summary tables, while those wishing to compare information across states can generate customized tables for multiple states on a specific topic, the release said. The site also provides data from the Census of Governments on state and local property taxation, according to a news release.
The Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations commission stopped providing this information when it fell victim to budget cuts in 1996, according to the release, and the Lincoln Institute and the George Washington Institute of Public Policy will provide the information “as a public good.”
The database is available at http://www.lincolninst.edu/subcenters/significant-features-property-tax/.
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/06/education-and-technology-supply-demand-and-income-inequality.html
Stu – How wild – Just found that for you at Economist’s View – I knew you were seeking a connection..
#79 frank An no frank, looks to me they are back down to 2004/03 levels in many Beregn Co. areas.
In my area we are now starting to see some asking prices at 2002 levels.
And now comment from you that that sales in Beregn Co for May were the worst in 20 years?
Thanks Cindy.
I still don’t feel globalization was the key cause for the income gap. I really think that greed, stemming from the loss of personal morals has a lot more to do with it.
#81 John:Gee 9.4 unemployment, which may top out at around 11%, seems pretty severe to me.
#99 Stu: I really think that greed, stemming from the loss of personal morals has a lot more to do with it.
I agree.
“This ain’t much of a recession”
J,
25M unemployed/underemployed. Are you suggesting that this is a dress rehearsal?
re #83 – Shore – China supplies something like 70% of North Korea’s energy and 40% of their food.
I like to think of the North Korea as China’s satellite state similar to the relationship the US has with Israel. Both are little places but heavily armed and proud but angry nations with massive energy,water and food problems. Neither could not survive without the largess of other countries.
Pres. Bill Clinton tried to cut off some of China’s influence on the North by agreeing in 1996 to build via the international consortium members (Japan, South Korea and the US) a 2,000MW nuclear power plant in North Korea and, in return, North Korea would phase out its graphite reactors, which are capable of producing bomb-grade material.
We also supplied massive amounts of food to them. That all fell apart at the end of Clinton’s presidency and GWB canceled the reactor program later on and took a hard line with the North.
I heard recently there is talk of sending Al Gore in to negotiate the release of the two women journalists, and perhaps restart talks with the North.
I don’t see Obama putting up a Naval Blockade, it is not his style.
US investigators warn bank stress tests not enough
“WASHINGTON (AP) — A government test of whether 19 major banks could survive a further downturn in the economy may have relied on too rosy a scenario and should be repeated, independent investigators say.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-investigators-warn-bank-apf-15472834.html?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Isn’t this exactly what Dr. Nouriel said about 5 months ago?
#98,
2004/03 level will bring prices to 5x income. Looks like housing boom continues in Bergen Co.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/tarp-panel-chair-suggests-running.html
“TARP Panel Chair suggests Running Stress Tests Again”
She says they should run the scenarios through 2012-2013 when CRE problems get magnified. Not even counting the fact that the unemployment numbers are already out of whack.
#105 frank: well you know frank back down to 2004/03 levels, which of course could mean continued decline until we get to 2003/02 levels,and so on, and so on.
But hey I give up frank talking to you is like talking to the wall.
More tax news. I was interested in this ballot initiative in Arizona called Proposition 100. It passed in the 11/08 election by 76-24%. Needless to say, the teachers’ unions fought it tooth and nail.
“TEXT OF PROPOSED AMENDMENT
Be it enacted by the People of the State of Arizona:
1. Article IX, Section 24, Constitution of Arizona is proposed to be added as follows if approved by the voters and on proclamation of the Governor:
ARTICLE IX, SECTION 24, PROHIBITION OF NEW REAL PROPERTY SALE OR TRANSFER TAXES
THE STATE, ANY COUNTY, CITY, TOWN, MUNICIPALITY OR OTHER POLITICAL SUBDIVISION OF THE STATE, OR ANY DISTRICT CREATED BY LAW WITH AUTHORITY TO IMPOSE ANY TAX, FEE, STAMP REQUIREMENT OR OTHER ASSESSMENT, SHALL NOT IMPOSE ANY NEW TAX, FEE, STAMP REQUIREMENT OR OTHER ASSESSMENT, DIRECT OR INDIRECT, ON THE ACT OR PRIVILEGE OF SELLING, PURCHASING, GRANTING, ASSIGNING, TRANSFERRING, RECEIVING, OR OTHERWISE CONVEYING ANY INTEREST IN REAL PROPERTY. THIS SECTION DOES NOT APPLY TO ANY TAX, FEE, OR OTHER ASSESSMENT IN EXISTENCE ON DECEMBER 31, 2007.
2. The Secretary of State shall submit this amendment to the voters at the next general election as provided by Article XXI of the Arizona Constitution.
ANALYSIS BY LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL
Proposition 100 would amend the Arizona Constitution to prohibit the state or any county, city, town or other political subdivision of the state from directly or indirectly imposing any new tax, fee or other assessment on the sale, purchase, transfer or other conveyance of any interest in real property (such as homes and other real estate). This proposed measure would not affect any tax, fee or other assessment in existence prior to this year.”
The concept is preemptive first strike. Block the government from imposing taxes where none presently exist. The big fish here would be a similar act aimed at all local govenments and the state. A really big fish would be a second provision, barring the state from imposing any sort of personal or real property taxes. It has to take the form of constitional amendment so that a future assembly couldn’t simply unpass it.
Politically, it is a winning argument since most politicians would be hard-pressed to come out against it.
Okay, enough noncontroversial news form me. Back to lurk.
we don’t need no stinkin FASBs, btw how do you know what medium income is anyhow in tony BC. I was doing some research on tony towns on LI and interesting enough a lot is based on census data, so in figuring out the medium income it gets confusing because census data stop at 200K plus, so centre island, cove neck, laurel hollow on LI get averaged in at 200K income, average house is around 3-4 million in those towns. In fact JLow who lives in Uppper brookvile says she does not get much attention as she is nowhere near rich for that town. Yet Upperbrokville is another 200K town. So we count every nickle in a poor town but we round Jlow down to 200k income, crazy.
A conversation with Frank…
http://images.travelpod.com/users/wanderlywagon/endamichelle.1190052300.48.jpg
99. Stu – The article I posted points to the widening gap in education, the increased number of drop outs and underemployed. An education gap, leading to an employment gap – leading to a wage gap???
If the poor or out of work non-earners stay where they are but the high end incomes increase – there is bound to be a disparity in wages.
More headed to the bottom with no salary increases – With no limit at the top for those with investment funds???? What are you finding?
The top keeps going up – the bottom keeps going down?
Is that what you are finding?
“btw how do you know what medium income is anyhow in tony BC.”
J,
Losing it? I never stated anything regarding median income. Is 25M unemployed/underemployed simply a dress rehearsal?
Stu [110],
LMAO.
If I ramble – Excuse me – I’m heading into a cataract surgery in about one hour. That does leave me off for the day though – POINT WAS, NO COFFEE.
Yikes – I am hooked. Just try typing when you haven’t had any coffee to prove it to yourself…
NEW YORK, June 9 (Reuters) – The short end of the Treasury yield curve is pricing in “lots of rate hikes” and has gotten ahead of itself, Mohamed El-Erian, the chief executive of bond giant Pacific Investment Management Co, said on Tuesday.
Last week, the Labor Department said the U.S. unemployment rate in May raced to 9.4 percent, the highest since a matching rate in July 1983, from 8.9 percent in April.
Friends are looking at houses in the area. One they have their eye on last sold for $841k in 9/04. House went on the market 4 months ago at $769k. Currently sitting at $679k. No recession in prestigious Upper Montclair, Frank.
Cindy the second generation “spelling bee” kids whose parents are dirt poor are now rich and the baby boomer well off US born grandparents grandchildren are now deadbeat slackards, the rich a few generations down the road do become rich, 20 years ago I was dirt poor now I am rich, yet that stat says the poor of 20 years ago are worse off today, as if the poor stay poor and rich stay rich, haven’t they heard of stock and RE bubbles and margin accounts?
Cindy says:
June 9, 2009 at 9:37 am
99. Stu – The article I posted points to the widening gap in education, the increased number of drop outs and underemployed. An education gap, leading to an employment gap – leading to a wage gap???
If the poor or out of work non-earners stay where they are but the high end incomes increase – there is bound to be a disparity in wages.
More headed to the bottom with no salary increases – With no limit at the top for those with investment funds???? What are you finding?
The top keeps going up – the bottom keeps going down?
Is that what you are finding?
Gator [116],
20% off in Upper Montclair? Can’t be.
Cindy,
I wish I had more time to fully address this issue, but unfortunately I do not today. I will say this, it appears that there are a lot of contributing factors and there may not be a primary contributing factor. The key may be that our tax codes (to encourage investment) favor the the wealthy which keeps them that way. The middle and bottom are not able to save and invest and it negatively impacts their ability to close the gap. Especially when considering that all of their income is dependent on wages which have steadily been falling vs. inflation. It’s a viscous circle.
Trust me, as liberal as I am, I am not a big fan of many of our social nets for many do not encourage work, savings or any other kind of improvement. This is why simply socking it to the rich is not the solution either. Quite honestly, I think anything run by the government is doomed to failure due to the unnecessary bureaucracy that always evolves around it.
I must get back to work though.
“20 years ago I was dirt poor now I am rich”
Who was talking about a pompous ass?
#116 gator: Look at this listing below. I have posted it a coupel of time, got no resposne form teh board.
Sold for 740K in March of 06, sold again 6 months later for 968K!!!!.
Now bank owned for sale asking 623K!!. In my blue ribbon Bergen co train town.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2925359&id=999999
Here’s one in Long Hill Township.
According to Trulia sold for 350k in 11/05. renovated and is now listed for 309k.
Listed for 14% off 05 sales price. factor in renovations probably at least 20% off.
Busy road, but Long Hill is pretty nice.
http://www.trulia.com/property/1053313430-1354-Valley-Rd-Stirling-NJ-07980
Green shoots?
these NJ numbers are bad, but could be much worse. in the areas I am looking in (Fairfield County, CT), sales are down roughly 70% YoY and close to 90% from peak volume. Job losses are still runing at over a half a million per month and mortgage rates are rising rapidly. I do not think we will see a bottom in RE until both of these get better.
119 – Stu – Thanks for taking some time. I agree with the summation of your findings so far.
Also…
The higher cost of housing has cut into the disposable income along with the accelerated use of credit cards. Once credit cards, buying on time, became the norm, I think savings simply lost it’s footing.
Those folks figured out that if the have us pay $15. on a $1,000 bill they could make so much more money than insisting on $100. a month for a $1,000. bill.
Credit card debt – the on-going sapping of what you earn – has taken down quite a few I’d bet.
Cindy 116
Thanks for the heads up about seeking alpha the other day.
Also, what you just described is parts of india and brazil.
#22
I can buy that we may have seen a bottom in volume. As I wrote above, the market in my area is basically shut down, so it would be hard to go lower.
Skep [126],
I agree regarding volume. Pricing, probably another 20% decline, in our area.
#127 BC Bob: On top of the 20% decline we have already seen, which brings us to 40% total from peak, and we may even see 50%.
3b [128],
Yes, I agree. All markets overshoot. Can you imagine if the overshoot to the downside is comparable to the upside overshoot?
121/3b-
Looks like a bad addition to an older house wrapped in alumninum siding.
Soak the “rich,” make them pay their “fair share.” Don’t even get me started on that BS. I just retrieved the quarterly tax information from the tax accountant, and I think I hear banjos. Eeeeeeeeeeeeee wa eeeeeeeeeee. Now if Mrs. Shore and I could just pay our fair share, I would feel so much better.
thinking of going to US Open practice rounds next week, are they kid friendly and is parking easy? I have to take a 3 yo if I want to go while other kids are in school so I am curious if it is possible to do.
A green-shoot salad before a course of humble pie?
From the Washington Post:
rdles
By Ben Pershing
Updated:
Page 1 of 2
Read Full Article
By Ben Pershing
Two key tenets of President Obama’s economic recovery plan have hit obstacles in recent days, as the Supreme Court temporarily blocked the sale of Chrysler to Fiat and high unemployment numbers cast doubt on the effectiveness so far of the administration’s much-touted stimulus package
snip
Not pompus at all, I am a slub, most of my dirt poor bronz buddies worked their tails off and everyone is making 200k to 600K. Rich by obamas low standards, homeless by obama standards, just saying people always compare poor of 20 years ago with rich of today (200K +) and they fail to mention many many people have moved from one side to the other. Heck I may be back on poor side again in 5 years, who knows,
BC Bob says:
June 9, 2009 at 9:47 am
“20 years ago I was dirt poor now I am rich”
Who was talking about a pompous ass?
#119 – stu – The middle and bottom are not able to save and invest and it negatively impacts their ability to close the gap. Especially when considering that all of their income is dependent on wages which have steadily been falling vs. inflation.
Even when they are able to save the eroding effects of inflation force their savings into ever riskier asset classes in order to get any sort of return. As Cindy also pointed out they’ve acquired massive amounts of debt from credit cards and other sources to make up for their falling wages. I’m not a conspiracy theorist type** but you’d be forgiven for thinking that this had been engineered.
**Unless it involves the Templars and Hagbard Celine, `cause they’re most certainly running the world, fnord.
Seems to me the point of the above articles on education doesn’t really contradict the globalization argument for economic inequality.
highly skilled workers are more valuable because of globalization. increased size of markets makes unique skills more valuable.
the U.S. has not been increasing its pool of skilled labor at the same pace as other nations during the past 30 yrs. its unskilled labor pool faces competition from abroad that previously did not exist.
what does not seem to be addressed by the articles is the degree to which education may be having diminishing returns in recent years due to further and further commoditization of what were once skilled professions.
Elizabeth Warren made an interesting argument in a book a couple of years back that much of the housing bubble could be explained through the lens of education– parents stretching themselves to the limit to buy homes in areas with good schools because of an understanding that solid education has become a prerequisite for any kind of above-poverty-level life.
It seems to me that this argument goes too far since house prices shot up in ghettoes too, but people do seem willing to spend an awful lot to get into/maintain their prime schools districts, so there is probably something to this.
Grim, no bottom. We have move up buyers, realtors “creating a sense of urgency,” low interest rates, and besides, it’s spring!
Sue Adler explains….
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
http://njexperts.com/2009/05/02/in-the-nj-midtown-direct-trainline-towns-95-homes-have-gone-under-contract-in-past-two-weeks/
In the NJ Midtown Direct Trainline Towns, 95 Homes Have Gone Under Contract In Past Two Weeks!
Over the past two weeks, did you notice how many homes in our NJ Midtown Direct Trainline Towns are selling????
I just went into GSMLS and searched all homes in Millburn, Short Hills, Summit, Chatham, Madison, Maplewood, South Orange and Livingston, and found that 95 homes have gone under contract in the past two weeks. This does not include all of the ones that are in attorney review!
Compare This To the last 2 weeks of March, where only 45 homes went under contract in these towns, and the last 2 weeks of February where there were only 18 homes to go under contract.
Why now??
Move up Buyers finally are selling their existiing homes and there is finally enough inventory for them to want to make the upward move.
MORE NJ Sellers are pricing right, staging their homes and listing with Realtors who are creating a sense of urgency for them ( yes, shameless plug) , so those 95 homes are selling, while others remain sitting.
The RATES- I just refinanced at 4.625%. How long do you think they’ll stay below 5%?
Its Spring! The clock is ticking to get in for the school year – beats the 30k per year private school tuition. The 3rd baby has been born and the 1 bedroom apartment won’t work anymore, etc… life goes on.. you get the picture.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Skep:
“highly skilled workers are more valuable because of globalization. increased size of markets makes unique skills more valuable.
the U.S. has not been increasing its pool of skilled labor at the same pace as other nations during the past 30 yrs. its unskilled labor pool faces competition from abroad that previously did not exist.”
What the article is saying is that a good education is not affordable to most Americans at the middle and bottom of the wage spectrum, causing the income gap. Globalization would make the gap even worse as now the non-rich are now competing with an even larger group of competitors for the better jobs. Of course, this should impact the wealthy Americans as well, right?
“Even when they are able to save the eroding effects of inflation force their savings into ever riskier asset classes in order to get any sort of return”
YES FREE MARKET CAPITALISM!!!!!!
NJ Gator (#116):
I know the house you’re referring to. The sale in 2004 at $841 is really peculiar, especially given the listing price at the time ($659!!). Was it really the case that bidding wars in Montclair in 2004 could push a $650K listing into a sale $200K higher than that? It’s mind-blowing, if so.
That Sue Adler blog entry was so filled with deception it pains me to think that I put my neck out for her last year.
Sue Adler link:
http://i442.photobucket.com/albums/qq145/stuw6/MsAdlers.jpg
On the fence:
“Was it really the case that bidding wars in Montclair in 2004 could push a $650K listing into a sale $200K higher than that? It’s mind-blowing, if so.”
Yes it was, although that percentage bid up was near the top of what was typical. We witnessed many a 550K home for 700K due to the bidding wars. My how times have changed.
@ Stu (144):
Interesting. Well, the house in question is definitely not worth the price paid in 2004–arguably wasn’t worth it the minute the ink dried on the contract. Nor is it even a particularly good buy at 10% off its current listing price.
Grim,
Keep in mind, it was no secret that near the peak of the bubble, realtors in Montclair would set the LP extra low to encourage the bidding wars. Then they would advertise for future business by saying that their last three houses sold for blah blah blah percentage over asking. I have a feeling that your 4 handle house was probably worth a minimum of 5 handle at the time. Only the irrational exuberance of the Montclair buyer could make it sell for 700k.
When we lucked out into a private sale in October of 2004, we jumped on it, having witnessed the bidding wars occurring for homes that sometimes looked like outhouses.
I know the house you’re referring to. The sale in 2004 at $841 is really peculiar, especially given the listing price at the time ($659!!).
I remember a total beater on Upper Mountain Ave going for several hundred thousand over asking in 2003. It started around $400k and sold for six something. It could have been a real nice house but needed everything. That was my first clue back then that something was really wrong with the market. That summer, I knew someone who was bragging that he sold his 3 br UMC house for $270 and only paid like $180 for it. I was shocked. Had he held onto it for 2 more years he could have gotten $500k
#139
“What the article is saying is that a good education is not affordable to most Americans at the middle and bottom of the wage spectrum, causing the income gap. Globalization would make the gap even worse as now the non-rich are now competing with an even larger group of competitors for the better jobs. Of course, this should impact the wealthy Americans as well, right?”
I agree with this, with the further point that the definition of a “good education” is constantly changing and is measured comparatively. American public schools were top of the line 50 yrs ago and now are no where close to the top. Maybe they have organically grown a little worse, but the main reason they are inadequate now is because the schools in other countries have grown better. To me, this is all part of globalization.
@ Stu:
Good for you on the private sale. I assume you had friends in the area to tip you off? My wife and I have been looking in MTC and GR for the better part of nine months now, and have made what would have been in any other market quite ‘reasonable’ bids on seven places, but in each case we have been outbid. Three of these situations resulted in winning bids well above ask. I have to say, although the prices have obviously come down from peak, the market dynamics in MTC and GR don’t seem to have changed all that much. There’s still a tendency for buyers to get caught up in the process and allow themselves to be sucked into bidding wars—albeit smaller and less frantic ones than a few years ago. As mortgage rates continue to rise, I’m on the cusp of giving up and sitting on the fence for awhile longer. It seems like another leg down is imminent.
132/John-
I’m going on Thursday for the first round. Only two options then: 1.)drive and park at Jones beach and take a bus or 2.) the train.
Sir Rentsalot says:
June 9, 2009 at 12:08 am
17 veto – chifi trashed what you did because kettle’s name was on it. He’s been jumping all over kettle for any reason or no reason for lo these 24 months or so. Kettle, you should have attended a pseudo-ivy; maybe he’d hold his fire then.
Rento: so you believe the fact that I trashed something is due to the author’s alma mater, as opposed to the ACTUAL reason which it is useless crap intended to relieve the repressed sexual urges of its creator; maybe my reflexive response is sourced in justified skepticism, coupled with YET ANOTHER example of the same broken record. Just because someone is intelligent, diligent, and focused doesn’t mean that what they produce will be of any quality.
On the fence….Might I suggest you focus on Glen Ridge more than Montclair. Although your taxes might be slightly higher, you get a hell of a lot more for them than you do in Montclair. We plan to buy a second home in GR in the Spring (next year), and plan to rent out both units of our current multi in Montclair. I agree that the next leg down is coming and I would expect it to show up this autumn as the panic of higher mortgage rates and depressed prices finally sets in.
On the fence, Stu. The dynamics of that market seem to be driven by one thing NYers. They overpay. They are coming from brooklyn or manhattan and have sold small condos for a mint. I have seen the same thing in Downtown Jersey City, brownstones in good shape were 600k in 2002-2003 by 04 800k selling over ask, by 2005 a cool million, by 2006 ask was 1.3-1.4 sales around 1.2 but still selling. People used to the NY city property market are all too ready to overpay. Buble prices existed all over NJ but in areas where NY transplants went it was even worse. Note that even haughty bergen county didn’t exhibit this extreme over asking situation.
chifi– way too harsh.
we all know housing is going down. but I do not think it was clear how similar/disimilar this housing cycle was to the late 80s/early 90s. It seems from kettle and veto’s report that it is actually quite similar so far, more so than we have been led to believe by media reports that this is “unprecedented.” That is new info and I think a valuable contribution to the discussion here.
“Just because someone is intelligent, diligent, and focused doesn’t mean that what they produce will be of any quality.”
Albert Einstein’s feces?
Chifi,
rejoice!
‘Fierce Rally’ Under Way for Leveraged Loan CDOs (Update2)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aZ7hygTma5ao
so can I drive to a practice round?
BklynHawk says:
June 9, 2009 at 11:44 am
132/John-
I’m going on Thursday for the first round. Only two options then: 1.)drive and park at Jones beach and take a bus or 2.) the train.
“so can I drive to a practice round?’
Hitch a ride with Billy Joel.
@ Stu:
That’s the direction we’ve been tilting, as a matter of fact. One of our unsuccessful bids was on a GR Tudor that had the added advantage (beyond being in terrific condition and in GR) of relatively close proximity to Watchung Plaza (i.e., it was north of the country club). Looking back on the process, we probably should have gone just a bit over asking on that one—the price was, in retrospect, pretty much spot on. Even with another leg down, we probably would have been happy with our purchase.
Funny he has 30 motorcycles, several boats too but he only crashes the cars
BC Bob says:
June 9, 2009 at 11:59 am
“so can I drive to a practice round?’
Hitch a ride with Billy Joel.
ChiFi,
how about you try being constructive for a change. if you think something is wrong try saying why. just blowing hot air does nothing but make noise.
You also seem to have a false impression that I have proclaimed some special status, when neither of us have claimed any particular expertise.
You are free to disagree with anyone or anything you like, but the nebulous outbursts are becoming tiresome. if you have an issue with how info/data is presented or think its in error then speak up.
This isnt a popularity contest or a game to see who’s is bigger. Personal attacks do nothing but make you look like a pompous ass.
John,
Have you thought about the fact that you’re going to have to keep your 3 year old silent if you plan on getting close to any of the action? I’ve thought about taking the little guy to some events, but he doesn’t shut his trap (ever), so it probably wouldn’t be worth it just yet. You talk in Tiger’s backswing and you will feel the wrath!
Just a thought.
skep [149]
Most developed and wannabe developed countries have national curricula at schools (at least at middle and HS levels). That allows to not only make the education system cheaper – as national curriculum comes with all the bells and whistles it eliminates a huge layer of district-level “curriculum-development” bureaucrats, greatly reduces textbook expense, specifies class size, etc. – but also make it better due to eliminating the artificial year-class relationship (generally, it is much better to study science and history as a continuous process rather than go either/or biology, chemistry, physics, or US/World/Europe).
@jcer:
Yes, that definitely rings true. Our friendly and generally helpful agent has said as much a few times. Problem is, although my wife and I are following the pattern in one sense (i.e., we’re leaving Brooklyn), we go against type in another way: that is, we have been renters all this time, and have been diligently saving through the entire bubble. So, we don’t have quite the same perspective (or pot o’ gold from a condo or co-op sale) as other NYC ex-pats. And that’s probably why we keep on striking out.
Stu,
Re. Sue A., you can be forgiven for your sins against the blog if you take Little Gator outside and throw him three Hail Mary’s and then call your father.
Not a chance I am Catholic, huh?
“how about you try being constructive for a change. if you think something is wrong try saying why. just blowing hot air does nothing but make noise.”
kettle,
Chi is the All-Star pitcher that constantly shakes off his catcher. Ultimately, the catcher has to call time out and ask him what the F do you want to throw. It would be much easier if he just stepped on the rubber and fired away.
However, in his defense, he may be constrained?
It is just a practice round and all kids under 12 are free so they want kids there, tiger has kids so he understands. If not I hope he punches me so I can sue the pants off him.
Doyle says:
June 9, 2009 at 12:07 pm
John,
Have you thought about the fact that you’re going to have to keep your 3 year old silent if you plan on getting close to any of the action? I’ve thought about taking the little guy to some events, but he doesn’t shut his trap (ever), so it probably wouldn’t be worth it just yet. You talk in Tiger’s backswing and you will feel the wrath!
Just a thought.
How gay is this pitcher/catcher talk?
BC Bob says:
June 9, 2009 at 12:15 pm
“how about you try being constructive for a change. if you think something is wrong try saying why. just blowing hot air does nothing but make noise.”
kettle,
Chi is the All-Star pitcher that constantly shakes off his catcher. Ultimately, the catcher has to call time out and ask him what the F do you want to throw. It would be much easier if he just stepped on the rubber and fired away.
However, in his defense, he may be constrained?
#164 – National curricula –
Three other benefits –
District to district transfers are generally on the same page so are far less disruptive to the class.
National exams with blind grading means that it is harder for schools to fudge the numbers. An “A” really is an “A”.
University entrants education levels are more balanced and it is easier for the schools to set entrance standards. No need for remedial English or Math classes in college.
American Express to Repurchase $3.39 Billion of Preferred Shares from U.S. Treasury
Tuesday June 9, 11:21 am ET
NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–American Express (NYSE: AXP – News) announced today that it has been notified by the United States Department of the Treasury (Treasury Department) that it can repurchase the $3.39 billion of preferred shares that were issued to the Treasury Department as part of the Capital Purchase Program (CPP).
ket & bost:
chicagofinance says:
June 7, 2009 at 10:20 pm
13.homeboken says:
June 7, 2009 at 9:54 pm
Kettle & Veto – My compliments for your charting ability. More importantly, being able to decipher meaningful data and present it effectively is impressive.
My background in econometrics forces me into raw numbers…being able to present it as easy to understand charts with well defined axis is a real treasure to us. Thank you much.
home: I really can’t disagree more….cool pictures and some nice platitudes, but what point does this drive home? I think the biggest divergence here is that 1980’s Jersey has more in common with current Phoenix, Miami et al. Current Jersey is in serious trouble, but at best this analysis appears specious, unless the conclusion merely directional and is intended to be “the next step is DOWN”.
I think it tries to posit a magnitude or duration of a drop, and if so, it is a faulty tool that will lead its users to poor decisions.
I draw from this one conclusion – and no more. In NJ, do not buy in Summer 2009 if your personal circumstances allow you to avoid it.
Otherwise I see this as analytical masturbation.
RE: 17
I stopped reading ChiFi’s posts after this classic.
chicagofinance says:
March 28, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Regarding 529’s….if you draw income from a New York state source (i.e. file a NYS return), then use one of the two NYS plans. period.
Pfff…
#172 chgo: I think the biggest divergence here is that 1980’s Jersey has more in common with current Phoenix
Well I have no charts or analytics to dispute your contention. However, after living through both housing bubbles, and haveing purchased at the peak of the one in the 80’s, I can tell you IMO there was is no comaprison bewteen what went on in the 80’s vs. the housing bubble that has recently ended.
The analytical masturbation eases my sexual repression ;)
Sorry for wasting your block space grim, will go back to ignoring Chifi’s comments.
WickedOrange says:
June 9, 2009 at 12:27 pm
RE: 17
I stopped reading ChiFi’s posts after this classic.
chicagofinance says:
March 28, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Regarding 529’s….if you draw income from a New York state source (i.e. file a NYS return), then use one of the two NYS plans. period.
Pfff…
Wick: #1 I stand by this recommendation; #2 if you think you are insulting me, then you are clueless.
#172
ChiFi– I don’t think your point is as clear as you think it is.
What exactly do you find wrong with the report aside from a general skepticism regarding the conclusion you think it implies?
#129 BC Bob:Can you imagine if the overshoot to the downside is comparable to the upside overshoot?
In a word, ugly.
#130 bklyn:Looks like a bad addition to an older house wrapped in alumninum siding.
And to think someone paid almost $1,000,000.00 for that.
Simply insane.
skep: The report is fine, but I really have a nagging feeling that it is missing important context. As an example 3b is telling me that my “guess” may not be relevant. That is fine, but there needs to be someone to step in with some real field experience and sweep it clean for egregious errors in construction.
The report presents as 1 + 1 + 1 = 3
What I see is 1 + A + & = 3…..and so it appears to be useless to me.
I don’t want to parse the minutiae, because I actually do not care enough about it. However, what gets me really angry is that the same message, from the same source, uses data that may or may not be appropriately accumulated….and the overriding probability is that it is not….especially considering the fact it is clear the author has ONLY ONE conclusion that he will socialize and would probably have tossed out the report if it didn’t give him the result he expected……
High Profile Hotel Default
Last night, Sunstone Hotel Investors announced that the company would turn over its W San Diego hotel property to its lenders, as opposed to making its June 1st debt service payment on the property’s mortgage. This move speaks volumes about the deterioration of the hotel operating environment in recent months, and in turn, the value of hotel properties….
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/20843/High-Profile+Hotel+Default
“I think the biggest divergence here is that 1980’s Jersey has more in common with current Phoenix, Miami et al.”
Chi,
Not even close.
I owned in 1985. There was no I/O, pay option arm’s, negative amort, liar loans etc.. The mortgage companies put a scope up your ass. If you didn’t have 20% down, you paid pmi. In addition to this, 2 months of bank statements. If self employed, tax returns. If you were receiving help from a family member, in the form of a dp, a notarized letter was required, stating that the $ was a gift, not a loan.
Today’s, or yesterday’s, bubble in Phoenix compared to 1980 NJ? Why not compare Roseanne Barr to Gisele.
The few extra 100k’s are because they used luxury aluminum siding with platinum/white gold speckles.
kettle1 says:
June 9, 2009 at 12:33 pm
Sorry for wasting your block space grim, will go back to ignoring Chifi’s comments.
ket: are you ever going to buy a house? have you ever owned a house?
BC Bob says:
June 9, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Today’s, or yesterday’s, bubble in Phoenix compared to 1980 NJ? Why not compare Roseanne Barr to Gisele.
Bost: Because in the 1980’s NJ was a much more speculative market on the whole.
As probably the best example I can think of….it is almost publicly unanimous that NJ is vastly superior than Long Island. Long Island is likely to be utterly destroyed. New Jersey and 10x more going for it.
In the 1980’s, a NJ address was a running joke.
Another ugly decline in my town.
The lsiting below sold for 275k (bank owned) on May 1, 2009. Previously it had sold in July of 2008 (less than a year ago) for 419K, prior to that it sold for 435K in 2003.
275K in my town equals 2000 pricing.
http://www.trulia.com/homes/New_Jersey/River_Edge/sold/342020-46-Howland-Ave-River-Edge-NJ-07661
New Jersey HAS 10x more going for it.
Including the advantage that you can relatively quick get out of it.
On the Fence 141/150 -From what I understand, the owner has bought another home (out of area, I think) that is scheduled to close soon. I think this one will sell quite a bit lower than list.
I think the market dynamic has changed in Montclair/GR quite a bit. The shiny pennies are still selling quickly, and sometimes over ask. However, in 2004/2005 almost every POS sold quickly, and at/above ask. Now these properties are sitting for months and selling below ask, if they are selling at all.
chi [185],
NJ a speculative play? Tied to the hip of WS? My point was that there was no speculation. It was just a typical RE market. Houses bought/sold based on normal circumstances; marriage, divorce job, downsizing, schools, estates, etc..
The recession caused the housing declines. Today’s charade was busted on the back of its own weak foundation, a house of cards.
Two totally different animals, at least based on my experience.
#185 chgo: Is that your opinion, or is that fact? How old were you in the 1980’s
As someone who grew up in NYC and moved to Bergen Co. I offer this. The 3 choices back then when moving from NYC, was Westchester, North Jersey, or LI. Bergen Co/north Jersey, was superior in all ways at that time.
House prices were similar, but in all other areas, NJ was the better choice.
And as far as NJ being a running joke, well for what it is worth, it did not seem to matter to the partners at Goldman at that time, themajortiy of whom lived in North Jersey. One of the reasons the firm never moved uptown.
#152 ChiFi
“if you draw income from a New York state source (i.e. file a NYS return), then use one of the two NYS plans. period.”
Very Suze Orman of you.
I agree with a few others here, you are starting to come across as a bit of an A$$ on this one.
Watching the news conference now from the East Wing regarding repayment of the TARP funds.
Is anyone else getting tired of the Lecturer-in-Chief?
I feel like I’m back in Sunday school…..
I agree that NJ is marginally better than LI, but the similarities blow away the differences IMO. The demographics are similar, the cost of living is similar, the taxes are similar, etc. Some people prefer one or the other (same with other NYC suburbs), but they all rise and fall pretty much in tandem.
I think it is difficult to get a handle on how justified the prices increases were in the late 80s vs. the 00s. On the one hand, the leverage seemed way more severe this time around, but on the other it seems that there has probably been more intergenerational wealth transfers and other things to offset this (such as rapidly rising incomes in finance at least until the past 18 months).
Still, it is hard for me to believe that the downturn this time around won’t end up being at least as bad as the early 90s, given the current jobs situation and the aging of the baby boomers in particular.
I don’t like charts that exist just to prove what we already know.
rebecca jarvis can get on my big board
she’s the only reason to watch CNN. which CEO will be hitting on her at the hotel bar tonight?
#194 Dennis the strawman
“I don’t like charts that exist just to prove what we already know.”
I suppose that is why people here wonder about your investing strategy.
A lot of people would like confirmation of what they know, before they commit.
Risk vs Reward.
The charts are confirming that the path down is always the same. Regardless of what the gvmt throws at the wall, the revert to mean marches on.
RJ on the Apprentice one week and next week a business reporter, america is great.
Back to US open stuff, they say I can’t park at US Open, they want me to take the shuttle bus from Farmindale train station but I can’t park there or jones beach where I can park but far away.
Is this true for less crowded practice round? Surely they is street parking within a mile of US Open or Farmindale train station I can sneak into, any tips?
#193 skeptic:Still, it is hard for me to believe that the downturn this time around won’t end up being at least as bad as the early 90s, given the current jobs situation and the aging of the baby boomers in particular.
It will be worse, simple common sense tells us that.
In the 80’s you still had to put at least 105 down,a nd 20% ws teh norm, there were no funny money loans.HELOC,and home equity loans were rare, as were car leases, and multiple credit cards.
And back then myself and my spouse and all of our friends were able to buy even in a bubble environment in our early 20’s.
PGC I actually don’t care why as long as it works, been taking dumps my whole life and know I flush it goes somewhere, don’t need a chart to map it out.
Guy at work made two good investments this year on two small bonds I told him to buy, he is analytical and his wife used to work on wall street so she likes to be involved. They read statements and do all types of charting, mumbo jumbo. I almost yelled at him when Ford bonds were 17 on a dollar to get in. He was like they are losing money blah blah blah, said he need time to analyize blah blah blah. Meanwhile those bonds were off my screen in an hour at that price. True bargains come and go in a minute I don’t have time to think too much just react. Citi long term bonds at 50 cents on a dollar boiled down to Timmy’s going to roll over and Sheila Blair aint got it in her to stop the freight train. AIG bonds were too much egg on white house face to let this turkey die. Not buying, Bear, Lehman or Countrywide boiled down to I thought the CEOs were slippery. But buying Ford was largely based on that CEO has some moxie.
You may not know it but I am a bear a lot of the time. After 1987 crash I was buying stock, 1992 bonds, 1994-1998 stocks, 2002/2003 stock, and last 9 months all in. I will sit on sidelines for years. I miss a lot of big run-ups but hey I love being in at garbage time.
Right now I think there is slightly more risk than reward. Too much electricity in the air south of wall.
PGC says:
June 9, 2009 at 1:25 pm
#194 Dennis the strawman
“I don’t like charts that exist just to prove what we already know.”
I suppose that is why people here wonder about your investing strategy.
A lot of people would like confirmation of what they know, before they commit.
Risk vs Reward.
The charts are confirming that the path down is always the same. Regardless of what the gvmt throws at the wall, the revert to mean marches on.
the fact that sales volume during May was the worst in 20 yrs also is in favor of the view that the situation now is worse than the early 90s
The only advantage NJ has is that they used to be a business friendly state decades ago. As a result, all the big industrial companies entrenched themselves within the state so much that it’s very difficult for them to move out of state without blowing through a bunch of cash. Don’t worry though, if Corzine gets reelected, he’ll be sure to chase them all out. His plan for bringing jobs to NJ was to convince Lehman Brothers to relocate their operations in NJ. Oops, guess that didn’t work out.
NJ, LI, Westchester, SE CT, et al same boat to varying degrees. Westchester and CT are more bubbly than LI or NJ. I think the south shore in LI will get hit really hard. As for the 80’s to today comparison, the difference is people today are not believing how bad it is, they don’t really know what the situation is. As thing hit home more it will get worse and worse, what happens when Timmay and bergbe stop the money train?? Or interest rates on a 30 yr mortgage go to 8% or FRE needs another bailout. In some markets property is trading for 40 or 50 cents on the dollar, that could be bottom, in NNJ it is still 90 cents on the dollar we have only begun. I also think the gold coast is nuked, huge inventory, high prices, slow sales, it’s going nowhere fast.
From Bloomberg:
Eddie Bauer Holdings Said to Prepare for Bankruptcy Filing
Eddie Bauer Holdings Inc., the U.S. outdoor-clothing chain, may seek bankruptcy protection as soon as this week, according to five people with knowledge of the discussions.
Hilco Consumer Capital LLC has expressed interest in bidding on the company’s assets, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks aren’t public. CCMP Capital Advisors LLC, a private-equity firm based in New York, may also make an offer for the retailer, which is being advised by Peter J. Solomon Co., the people said.
Eddie Bauer, which opened its first sporting goods store in Seattle in 1920, has reported annual losses for the past three years. The Bellevue, Washington-based company operates about 370 stores in the U.S. and Canada. No final decision has been made about a bankruptcy filing, according to people familiar.
#168
John: got it. I’ve never been to a practice round, didn’t realize it was different. Hopefully that means you don’t get wanded for your cell phone on the way in too.
Another huge difference between the 80’s and today;
http://www.cotohousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/11.gif
“NJ, LI, Westchester, SE CT, et al same boat to varying degrees. Westchester and CT are more bubbly than LI or NJ. ”
#202
Jcer– curious why you think this. Westchester and CT do seem more expensive than NJ and LI, but does this necessarily mean more bubbly? One thing in particular CT has going for it is it is a relative tax haven in the region
you do realize that if anyone else had posted this you would’ve greeted them w/your standard pomposity regarding the importance of demonstrating this point through an unimpeachable (meaning went to a school you approve of)data source… probably in all caps as well
and then required them to post an airtight disclaimer regarding how it was just a blog post and not an actionable piece of investment advice
chicagofinance says:
June 9, 2009 at 12:55 pm
BC Bob says:
June 9, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Today’s, or yesterday’s, bubble in Phoenix compared to 1980 NJ? Why not compare Roseanne Barr to Gisele.
Bost: Because in the 1980’s NJ was a much more speculative market on the whole.
As probably the best example I can think of….it is almost publicly unanimous that NJ is vastly superior than Long Island. Long Island is likely to be utterly destroyed. New Jersey and 10x more going for it.
“The leveraged loan market got accustomed to big numbers over the past decade. There’s $3.6 trillion, the amount of leveraged loans made since 2000, according to Thomson Reuters’ Loan Pricing Corp. There’s 735-fold, the amount of growth between 2003 and 2007 in the volume of collateralized loan obligations — the funds that helped fuel the loan market’s surge after the tech and telecom bust of 2001. And there’s $375 billion, the amount of bank debt used to fund leveraged buyouts completed between 2005 and 2007.”
http://www.thedeal.com/newsweekly/features/that-worrying-wall-of-debt.php
Nothing to see here. Green shoots! Greeeeeen Shoooots!
Buy Dan Marino’s house, he’ll throw in furniture and an autographed football.
http://www.zillow.com/blog/dan-marino-spices-up-sale-with-some-perks/2009/06/09/
3b,
The overshoot.
“House Prices Likely To Crash Through Fair Value And Bottom Down 45%-50%”
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-house-prices-will-crash-through-fair-value-and-bottom-down-45-50-2009-6?ref=patrick.net
#202 jcer:in NNJ it is still 90 cents on the dollar we have only begun.
I would say closer to 20% at this point.
#210 BC Bob: no surprise to me at all. I saw the overshoot last time, as did you.
I’m bearish on housing. I’m not trying to time the bottom but my position is if we can find a house we can buy with a 30 year fixed with a PITI of roughly the same as renting, we’d go for it. A 2002/03 price depending on the condition of the place would work for us.
Housing is getting closer to that level but not quite yet.
“I would say closer to 20% at this point.’
3b [211],
Yes, according to JB’s #’s, #14.
3b, depends on where you are. Super prime spots are still commanding 85-90% of peak pricing many places have slipped to 80%, some places in the ghetto like Paterson are even less.
My thoughts on CT and Westchester are that WS dollars pumped it way up, more so than Jersey or LI as those places have long been the hangout for hedge fund managers and WS elite. Money in NJ and LI is a little more diversified, there are in my mind more monied small business owners and people in fields outside of finance so the WS melt down has a lesser effect on NJ or LI. CT is far from NYC as such in my mind overpriced more so than other suburban NYC areas.
Housing is a highly illiquid asset. For me to buy, I would need to be reasonably confident that my job prospects in the area are solid. I think there is a big advantage in being mobile right now until the storm clouds clear. We all know that finance is not going to be the next driver of growth in this country and jobs related to finance are just not going to present in the numbers they were during the boom. NJ does not look very appetizing in terms of future job prospects.
a-rod’s house is now listed below it’s 2004 purchase price.
http://www.zillow.com/blog/britney-spears-and-a-rod-drop-prices-on-homes-again/2009/06/0
#215
“My thoughts on CT and Westchester are that WS dollars pumped it way up, more so than Jersey or LI as those places have long been the hangout for hedge fund managers and WS elite. Money in NJ and LI is a little more diversified, there are in my mind more monied small business owners and people in fields outside of finance so the WS melt down has a lesser effect on NJ or LI. CT is far from NYC as such in my mind overpriced more so than other suburban NYC areas.”
That is an interesting point on the Wall St end. I am not sure how much of a difference there is though between the various NYC suburbs. The way I look at it, if you are a NYC commuter and work in midtown, you probably live in Westchester or CT and if you work downtown you probably live in NJ or LI.
The rest of the people living in the suburbs work locally. There are a lot of finance jobs in Greenwich and Stamford, so it makes sense that CT would have more finance people than the others if for no other reason.
Westchester is harder to figure out.
Vehicle fraud cases heat up amid economic downturn
Reporting from Sacramento — Motorists unable to afford payments on pricey cars and gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles in this recession are turning to a time-tested financing solution: matches.
Insurance cheats are torching their vehicles in remote deserts. They’re pushing them off cliffs. They’re sinking them in lakes or ditching them in Mexico in the hopes of getting their policies to pay off, fraud investigators say.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-auto-torch8-2009jun08,0,1869536.story
Get the Hudson ready:)
More green shoots
“$70 oil menaces budding recovery”
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/09/news/economy/oil_prices/index.htm?postversion=2009060915
B. of A. picking up Mozilo’s legal tab: report
You know what they say…”Pimping ain’t easy”
“B. of A. picking up Mozilo’s legal tab”
Will it be more expensive or cheaper than his Hollywood Tans tab.
BofA and mozilo tab
Its cheaper for the B of A execs then having Mozilo rat them out. he named his price for silence and they accepted.
skep & 3b:
The pecking order was always drilled into my head….
1. Westchester
2. CT
3. LI
4. NJ, except NJ was really more like 7 or 8 relative to prestige……..
I think it began to transition to:
1. Westchester
2. CT.
3. North Shore LI
4. Best NJ towns
5. South Shore LI
6. other NJ
For all intents and purposes, my impression was that:
Brooklyn = Staten Island = South Shore LI = NJ until the last 15 years or so.
CIT Closes $954 Million TALF-Eligible Equipment Lease Securitization
NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–CIT Group Inc. (NYSE: CIT), a leading provider of financing to small businesses and middle market companies, today announced that it has closed a $954 million equipment lease securitization. Notes issued under the securitization constitute eligible collateral under the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). This is CIT’s first TALF-eligible securitization and represents the first TALF-eligible small ticket equipment lease deal. CIT has completed 16 term equipment securitizations since 2000, nine of which were backed exclusively by collateral from its U.S. Vendor Finance business.
CIT sold three classes of fixed rate notes in a private offering (Rule 144A) that are backed by a pool of commercial equipment lease contracts from CIT Vendor Finance. The weighted average fixed coupon on the securitization is approximately 2.67%, which represents a weighted average credit spread of approximately 1.52% over the benchmark swap rates for the three classes of notes. Details of the transaction are as follows:
Just a headline right now;
House subpoenas Fed Res over BAC-Merrill
imkeithhernandez says:
June 9, 2009 at 2:19 pm
you do realize that if anyone else had posted this you would’ve greeted them w/your standard pomposity regarding the importance of demonstrating this point through an unimpeachable (meaning went to a school you approve of)data source… probably in all caps as well
and then required them to post an airtight disclaimer regarding how it was just a blog post and not an actionable piece of investment advice
dude: you understand that I have to defend my point of view in the space of 2 minute bursts of effort, when others spend several hours a day perusing this site and creating posts……sorry if I come off a little caffeinated (which I am), otherwise blow me…..
The Italian Pecking Order is:
First Gen – Brooklyn
Second Gen- SI
Third Gen – NJ
Fourth Gen – Snooty BC or Tony North Shore – LI
Fifth Gen Blows money – back to brooklyn repeat process
“B. of A. picking up Mozilo’s legal tab”
Kate Corleone: “You’re so naive, Michael. Financial Corporations don’t have people killed…
Michael Corleone: “Who’s being naive now Kate?”
imkeithhernandez says:
June 9, 2009 at 2:19 pm
you do realize that if anyone else had posted this you would’ve greeted them w/your standard pomposity regarding the importance of demonstrating this point through an unimpeachable (meaning went to a school you approve of)data source… probably in all caps as well
To add: Part of the reason is that Bob has a very different opinion from mine, but based on the details in his posts, you can tell he know what he is talking about…..it kind of sucks when you see someone posting a pile of $hit and then see people actual take it seriously….
imkeithhernandez says:
June 9, 2009 at 2:19 pm
and then required them to post an airtight disclaimer regarding how it was just a blog post and not an actionable piece of investment advice
How much E&O insurance premiums do you pay a month to safely socialize your investment opinions?
One bad part about NJ is it is in middle of nowhere. My friends in Plandome LI want to be 30 minutes to city on train that runs every 30 minutes, 15 minutes to Throgs Neck for ski house and 70 minutes from their Hampton house, 20 minutes to beach and 20 minutes to LGA for quick flights to the islands. Hard to do all that in NJ.
Signor Mozilo, non significhiamo mancanza di rispetto. Vogliate gradire le nostre scuse poichè non accadranno mai ancora. Sono spiacente.
John says:
June 9, 2009 at 3:40 pm
The Italian Pecking Order is:
First Gen – Brooklyn
Second Gen- SI
Third Gen – NJ
Fourth Gen – Snooty BC or Tony North Shore – LI
Fifth Gen Blows money – back to brooklyn repeat process
JJ: depressingly accurate
We heard back from the town lawyer today. No settlement offer. The rumble in East Orange is on! I hope they can handle Stu.
John says:
June 9, 2009 at 3:44 pm
One bad part about NJ is it is in middle of nowhere.
JJ: The problem is that LI jumped the shark big time about 15 years ago. It is a total hole. The only people who would even remotely would consider living there are ones who grew up there, and in many instances, had property handed over to them between generations. NJ sux, but non-NYC natives are going to choose NJ over LI.
Top 10 posters saying they will ignore chifi but cannot be constrained:
20 BC Bob
17 John
15 Stu
14 3b
13 Mikeinwaiting
12 grim
11 skep-tic
8 Shore Guy
8 sas
8 safeashouses
#237 bi: Not that I particulary care, but I said nothing one way or the other. Scratch me off your silly list.
“To add: Part of the reason is that Bob has a very different opinion from mine, but based on the details in his posts, you can tell he know what he is talking about…..it kind of sucks when you see someone posting a pile of $hit and then see people actual take it seriously….”
Thanks Chi. I take that as a vote of confidence in me. HAHAHA! How’s AIG doing?
From our friend Barry Ritholtz:
The Still Over-Leveraged Consumer
“One of the primary reasons I am not a big believer in the green shoots thesis is due to the fragile financial condition of the Consumer.
Despite spending less time at the mall, throttling back consumption, and increasing their savings rate, the US consumer still finds themselves with too much debt and too little savings. Even worse (at least for the economy), they lack the income or the equity to fund their previous lifestyles.”
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/the-still-over-leveraged-consumer/
#240 hehe: Even worse (at least for the economy), they lack the income or the equity to fund their previous lifestyles.”
And that is simply what makes this time so much more different (worse), than last time.
before grim bans gold here, let’s guess what bc bob’s mother’s maiden name:
1) Goldman;
2) Goldsburg;
3) Goldsmith;
4) Kim (Kerean; means gold)
i am here waiting for another crash. but it’s another goldilock day.
John,
Just for the sake of argument…
BC is 20 minutes from the Thruway which heads north to VT, Adirondacks and CAN. Unless your ski house is in Boston, I fail to see the advantage of weaving north via local roads. Besides, if you forget your ski pants you can always stop in Hunter and ski in your jeans.
BC is 30 minutes away from Newark. A bonus to flying out of Newark is that you won’t destroy your rims on the way there…JFK access is so ugly only an LI resident could love it.
NJ is 60-90 minutes from various shore points.
If SHTF…well good luck.
From todays Five Things by Mr Depew at Minyanville:
“3. New American Savers?
Of course, when looked at from a bureaucrat’s perch, the stimulus needs considerable stimulation. Right now, we’re looking at a personal savings rate in this country approaching 5%; and, I think, it’s well on its way to 10%.
But that’s not the half of it. Literally. If it were, we would be so much better off; instead, that personal savings rate is only about the -35% of it.
The point of recognition will be about just this thing: We’re saving like mad, even as our household debt load is roughly 130% of disposable income.
Bad news for balance-sheet repair. When your debt load is 100% of disposable income, you can at least hold your head above water. At 130%, you’re basically saving up for default… So you can walk away from debt (and access to credit, which you were living on to meet monthly expenses) and still buy food and, hopefully, shelter.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/print.php?a=22985
LI = an experimental inbreeding program that started in the 1940s and is only contained by the sheer exasperation of trying to drive in or out of that island.
bi [242],
What is my co-worker’s name?
http://www.productappeal.com/photos/couples_costumes/gold_digger.jpg
On last cheerful article from Minyanville:
Economy Takes White-Collar Workers to the Cleaners
“The months since the collapse of Lehman Brothers have been disastrous for professionals, except those in the fields of health care and education. From August to April, there was an overall drop in employment of 4.3%. More significant, however, were the steep declines in highly skilled occupations: 9.3% in computer and math jobs, 10.3% in engineering and architecture occupations, and a whopping 11.5% in arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations.
It’s likely that many of these jobs will not return. Newspapers — from the New York Times and USA Today down to small-town rags — have made job cuts that are likely to be permanent; television networks are eliminating news divisions; architecture firms in major cities have lost their bread-and-butter corporate clients. The picture is equally grim for the financial industry, since so much of the employment growth in financial services over the past 20 years appears superfluous in hindsight.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/print.php?a=22988
bi [242],
By the way, not sure how your mention of g*ld got thru the filter?
JB?
Ziebra all winning points until NJ is 60-90 minutes from various shore points.
But I understand some lower class folks like it there, I tried to educate my Shore friends by bringing them to the hamptons, omg they did not even bring long pants or a sports coat and some arrived in American or Japanese cars. Fortunately I lent them pants and a jacket hid their camrys and dodges in the woods and we enjoyed the weekend. The one thing they did point out was why did I change so many times each day, Well I did my beach outfit, then my aspre beach late afternoon outfit and my club outfit, the girls in my house in addition had their pick up coffee and NY Times outfit, workout outfit on top of my three, the girls in my house did ten outfits each in a two day weekend, they noted NJ shore girls just PR shower it and hairspray it and thats that. I guess when you date the vinyl seat crowd what do you expect. Funny part was one of them had their cheezy GF visit and I swear she had the dee mccall car from hunter some type of 80’s datona, she followed us to club as she was driving home afterwards and they kept telling her lot was filled, even though they lifted the rope for my benz and my friends porsche, finally we broke it too her that the lot is closed for your car as they don’t want to drive away business. We were nice enough to drive that pos back a few blocks and leave it behind a dumpster and drive her back to the club. I think they are still gossiping about that girl to this day. It was quite scandelous.
gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold gold
J,
At least you’re consistent.
I don’t do the shore, so my driving times may be off. If I drive past exit 13 on the NJTPKE I start breaking out in hives and hyperventilating.
I think we need to start a pot to entice John to link his “club outfit” photos.
My friends had me meet them in the shore on a friday night at their local bar, was running late and did not get there till one am. Parking lot was empty and place packed and million cops outside looking to bust people, bouncer and cop even stopped me to hassel me on way to car, I was driving three drunk guys back, I told the NJ cop you ever hear of a designated driver, couldn’t drink on front yard of front porch, parking was a nightmre and had to walk blocks to beach and try to tan with stupid little pass on me and there was no bar at the beach.
I expect to drive to beach with my stuff, park right by sand and be served drinks and food right at my blanket. I also expect to drive to clubs and if I am capable of having a few drinks and piloting my car home so be it. NJ infringes on all basic rights. Heck I had a house party once with 500 people and no cops came by, in NJ 50 people they would have shut it down, plus the rentals are shacks out there, the shanty irish must have been hired when they build most of it.
Be careful or I will donkey punch you.
zieba says:
June 9, 2009 at 4:30 pm
I think we need to start a pot to entice John to link his “club outfit” photos.
Wells 30 year fixed now 5.75/5.95.
Z(253) –
I am in for a pot to kickstart John’s reality show career.
J,
Who gay now playa?
John says:
June 9, 2009 at 4:35 pm
Be careful or I will donkey punch you
OTF – 150
“I have to say, although the prices have obviously come down from peak, the market dynamics in MTC and GR don’t seem to have changed all that much. There’s still a tendency for buyers to get caught up in the process and allow themselves to be sucked into bidding wars”
Just experienced same this weekend in Chatham. Seems to be marginal houses (old and not redone, on a cliff, or no yard) are taking it on the chin hard, down easily 20% or more. Solid houses in good neighborhoods are off a bit, most selling in a reasonable time frame at 2005 (assessment) prices. Some higher end stuff…..Bid on a nice house listed last week, 4% off ask, not extraordinary by any means but recently reno’ed and very attractive at a prime address….They got three bids over ask, DOM 5. Go figure.
What can we name my show? That is 99% of my pitch.
Victorian says:
June 9, 2009 at 4:41 pm
Z(253) –
I am in for a pot to kickstart John’s reality show career.
IMO Monmouth, Ocean, And Cape May counties should secede from NJ. We simply dont need the North Jersey, NY, specifically SI trash. They are ruinous to our area and tourist industry. If I was elected Govenor I would do the following after secession.
1. Eliminate all corporate and and small business taxes.
2. Turn Lakewood into one gigantic industrial park.
3. Eliminate COAH.
4. Privatize the school system via vouchers.
5. Eliminate sales tax.
6. Bulldoze Asbury Park and set up a permanent block by block police presence similiar to Baghdad.
7. Build the worlds biggest wind farm 10 miles off the coast.
8. Bribe all domestic and foreign solar and wind energy manufacturers to set up shop in the new tax free industrial zone of Lakewood.
um, none.. my career doesn’t involve people paying me for my investment advice… hope the nuance of that isn’t lost on you
chicagofinance says:
June 9, 2009 at 3:43 pm
imkeithhernandez says:
June 9, 2009 at 2:19 pm
and then required them to post an airtight disclaimer regarding how it was just a blog post and not an actionable piece of investment advice
How much E&O insurance premiums do you pay a month to safely socialize your investment opinions?
John,
How about Onion Soup?
“it kind of sucks when you see someone posting a pile of $hit and then see people actual take it seriously…”
Chifi, its unanimous. almost everyone here has the same coplaint about you so now i dont feel so original in ripping into you.
But even when half the blog backs you into a corner and calls you out, you still can’t produce a response that is half intelligent, or even coherent.
If you read our report and in all sincerity, thought about Pheonix for more than two second, thats all anyone really needs to know.
In fact, your whole list of criticisms reads like a confession letter for not having a clue. And then when you do finally break-down and actually try to explain your self, while at the same time talking down to everyone at the same time, your lack of knowledge on the subject becomes more revealing.
To sum up your persona as you choose to portray it through the internet: at best, you are a useless bag of opinions that are all based solely on the world as you see it. At worst, you are a pompous fraud with little to be pompous about.
chicagofinance says:
“ket: are you ever going to buy a house? have you ever owned a house?”
Sue Adler? is that you?
This is all starting to make more sense now.
John (260)-
Crush Valor.
I imagine that John is just one whipped bean counter. Weekends are filled with honey do’s and yes dear. John wears one weekend outfit;
http://www.brandsonsale.com/adult-striped-prison-costume.html
As someone who has met ChiFi in person, he certainly has not asked for and does not require my defending of him.
With that said, he can be very abrasive, which is an excellent trait in a financial adviser. I think we all hold him to a higher standard due to his profession, which is really not fair. I also feel a ton can be garnered through his advice. The same holds true for MOST of the other posters here. He simply offers his opinion and you can take it or leave it.
I, for one, appreciate the way he plays devils advocate and feel his voice of reason is important. Especially on this blog which is decidedly bearish in nature. Perhaps I am too much a simpleton and do not mind being reminded to remember to look at both sides of the coin. One thing that I do know is that many here are way too thin-skinned.
The personal attacks are getting lame and the lack of it here is what keeps this unmoderated village going strong after so many years. This blog is invaluable to one’s wallet and sanity. Let’s all try to behave less like Francis and a bit more like Dewey Oxburger. If you disagree with something you read here, state your case and let it drop.
Clot…how about “Crush Vidalia?”
Bloomberg article with some more details on the House subpoena of the Fed.
Very interesting…
Crossing Wall Street:
The Market’s P/E Ratio Surges
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/index.html
“The market has clearly sensed signs of recovery even though earnings are still plunging. As a result, the market’s P/E Ratio has jumped about 50% since March.”
tosh 270
nothng but a dog and pony show. Could be fun though.
Stu 271 It would seem the S&P & earnings tracted pretty closely until now. Which way next?
#272 – nothing but a dog and pony show.
Most likely, I hope not though.
I refused to get into any bidding war and backed out of two houses (ie., did not make an offer just ‘cuz someone else was).
Just the exercise of going through all the costs involved was painful.
I’m back to being a happy renter and not look at properties – atleast for another 6 months.
John, as you know in LI to reach the “Good Areas” of the Hamptons takes a long time!!! I can reach exit 0 on the parkway in 2.5 hours from the depths of BC at 8pm on a thursday night in the middle of summer. That puts Manaloking, Bay Head, LBI, Longport, Avalon, and Cape May in striking distance for 2.5 hours or less. These areas are very nice, classy, not Jersey Shore honky tonk and don’t have that pompous presumption that the Hamptons have. FYI LI beaches ain’t bad but the Jersey Beaches as far as beaches go are better imo. Access to real skiing in VT is the same or better from NJ. Good access to NYC, yeah we have that too train, car, bus. LIRR is better than NJ transit but LI is disconnected from the rest of the country, I can’t imagine it is quick to get off the island. I know when I went skiing with friends from LI we beat them to Killington by 2 hours, they hit traffic coming off the island. So I think the pluses and minuses are there but it is fairly even.
James, I think NJ as a state is good, it has a lot of high value aspects. We don’t need to split anything the north has NY suburb status, the South has Philly, we have the beach and the mountains, all we need to do is get rid of some gov’t workers, kill Abbott(Really this time), COAH, and get rid of our biggest problems the ghettos. NJ with no Newark ghetto, East Orange, Irvington,Trenton, Camden,Paterson, etc would be a very financially stable place with many advantages. Unfortunately obligations to these poor cities kills the NJ government and taxpayer.
(260) Show name? John AKA JJ (daily embedded flashbacks to days gone by a must.)
What ever happened to my frugal families prediction?
[268] stu
“Let’s all try to behave less like Francis and a bit more like Dewey Oxburger.”
I’M A LEAN, MEAN, FIGHTIN’ MACHINE!!!!
[couldn’t resist. back to lurk]
Veto 264
Stu 260
I admire Chicago a great deal. I am ALWAYS looking for the positive and do not do well as a bear…. so I seek out his posts. He is…to the point…some call it brash…I like it.
I am also mindful of his unique position. When he is asked to explain himself, he may be walking on a thinner line than most.
He has basically caused me to think about – not what is fair, just or right…but what is happening… so I can protect or maybe even expand my financial holdings.
I read everyone’s posts. I have let you all know I am learning from you. I’m with Stu on this. Personal attacks are lame.
stu, well said buddy. I find it most frustrating because if you give him a chance and read through his posts, they are often littered with small hints of brilliant material but then its the remaining 99% of those same posts, filled with personal attacks, that seem to spoil it.
I’ll admit that is different than pure troll but not so much different that he should be entitled to pound everyone, one by one, using this site as an outlet to vent his personal life’s frustrations.
My sense is that his professional criticisms are welcome but he needs to tone down the attacks, they are clearly just personal.
Anyway, good perspective. thanks
I remember coming home from work one day only to read what a worthless, dumb teacher I was. I literally cried because I thought I knew folks well enough that if I made a lame mistake, someone would help me – correct me. Instead, some I didn’t know too well ripped me apart.
Many others defended my right to mess up and be a human being – then I felt like part of the family. – you know?
I read daily – but mostly just lurk these days…and I always learn.
From the WSJ:
The Media Fall for Phony ‘Jobs’ Claims
Tony Fratto is envious.
Mr. Fratto was a colleague of mine in the Bush administration, and as a senior member of the White House communications shop, he knows just how difficult it can be to deal with a press corps skeptical about presidential economic claims. It now appears, however, that Mr. Fratto’s problem was that he simply lacked the magic words — jobs “saved or created.”
“Saved or created” has become the signature phrase for Barack Obama as he describes what his stimulus is doing for American jobs. His latest invocation came yesterday, when the president declared that the stimulus had already saved or created at least 150,000 American jobs — and announced he was ramping up some of the stimulus spending so he could “save or create” an additional 600,000 jobs this summer. These numbers come in the context of an earlier Obama promise that his recovery plan will “save or create three to four million jobs over the next two years.”
Mr. Fratto sees a double standard at play. “We would never have used a formula like ‘save or create,'” he tells me. “To begin with, the number is pure fiction — the administration has no way to measure how many jobs are actually being ‘saved.’ And if we had tried to use something this flimsy, the press would never have let us get away with it.”
I don’t mind Chi’s abrasiveness as much as it seems to come from out of nowhere sometimes. One thing to be having a bit of a debate about something and it getting a bit abrasive; something else altogether to just come out of the blue attacking something somebody posted or everything that’s posted on an entire website as being bunk.
Say what you want to about ZeroHedge attempting to prove market manipulation by the government, perhaps a quixotic task as it always plausibly deniable, but I personally believe there’s been quite a bit of timely and interesting material on that website.
If somebody was to find a bullish website of a similar nature I certainly would not completely discount everything that is posted.
Stu,
Green shoots: Pay cuts have been rescinded! Huzzah!
Wilted greens: They’ve been replaced with unpaid furloughs to capture cost savings faster.
somebody pull the story. NJ may have to pay as much as 11.5% for the 2 Billion if they can’t cover short term.
veto that says:
June 9, 2009 at 4:52 pm
“it kind of sucks when you see someone posting a pile of $hit and then see people actual take it seriously…”
Chifi, its unanimous. almost everyone here has the same coplaint about you so now i dont feel so original in ripping into you.
But even when half the blog backs you into a corner and calls you out, you still can’t produce a response that is half intelligent, or even coherent.
If you read our report and in all sincerity, thought about Pheonix for more than two second, thats all anyone really needs to know.
In fact, your whole list of criticisms reads like a confession letter for not having a clue. And then when you do finally break-down and actually try to explain your self, while at the same time talking down to everyone at the same time, your lack of knowledge on the subject becomes more revealing.
To sum up your persona as you choose to portray it through the internet: at best, you are a useless bag of opinions that are all based solely on the world as you see it. At worst, you are a pompous fraud with little to be pompous about.
veets: This diatribe would be a great undressing of me, except it doesn’t really reflect reality, so it falls flat. It sounds great though. Kudos.
#285 – freedy – Is this the story?
Stu says:
June 9, 2009 at 5:10 pm
As someone who has met ChiFi in person, he certainly has not asked for and does not require my defending of him.
Stu: I didn’t know you cared……you are the onion of my eye :)
thats it,, think nj is broke?
HEHEHE says:
June 9, 2009 at 6:07 pm
I don’t mind Chi’s abrasiveness as much as it seems to come from out of nowhere sometimes
HE: speaking of abrasiveness…is this the big day in Hoboken?
first we are all beating up on frank and now Chi?
Listen, when Chi took a shot at me, I did not take offense or take the bait. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.
abrasive? Yes.
besides, he likes Depeche Mode, so he can’t be all bad.
Besides,I liked it when he told the poster in post 227 to blow him. I would have said “bite me”, but to each their own. Just a matter of style.
Let’s change the subject: Fudruckers–are the hamburgers any good? Because after a long hard day of being a real estate terrorist, I worked up a hunger that only a juicy burger can satisfy
Stu says:
June 9, 2009 at 5:10 pm
I…appreciate [a] devils advocate…
Stu: I think the most important thing we can do is challenge our “common knowledge”. This site was vital because it was ahead of the curve. I find it concerning that it is being mired in a close-minded obsession with only one narrow set of related outcomes. It is not as if these outcomes are wrong, but it is needlessly limiting and enhances risk potential….and THAT sucks onions.
morpheus says:
June 9, 2009 at 6:51 pm
You always looked good in shades, but part 3 of the Matrix really wasn’t too good.
I am not done with my new NJ Govenors agenda:
11. I will need access to a port and all the benefits a port has. I will purchase Earle Navy base from the US and convert it to commercial use. Earle will be a shipping route for all manufactured solar and wind energy products. The old Conrail railroad will be updated for both limited passenger and commercial use. It will be parallel service to the NJ transit coastal line.
12. As far as defense goes. Defense will be in the form of milita, national guard, and merchant marine units based out of Sea Girt. Direct conventional conflict will be avoided.
13. All social welfare programs will be eliminated. There will be no Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Disability, or Unemployment insurance. Immigration will be permitted based on enforced current immigration laws of the USA.
14. Governance will be as follows. A president of the 3 counties elected via popular vote every 4 years. Every township will have representatives based on population.
15. All deficit spending and taxation legislation will be passed by referendum only.
More to come….
Someone from Strong Island accusing people from NJ of being cheesy is hilarious.
John’s reality show:
“Magnum, CPA”
“The $600 Man”
“High Yield Hipster Dufus”
Hey, we all can be abrasive. I know I own that tag. In addition to this, I’ve been called much worse on this site.
We have to understand that this site called it before the majority of pundits/experts, excluding Paulson, that’s John. Back then we were all arguing the same point. Our contra parties, all blown out, are not to be heard from again. [I don’t include Bi and Frank, they don’t actually know why they are here]
Now we have reached our destination, the market has imploded and will continue to decline. Unfortunately, RE is the world’s slowest moving asset. However, we knew that. We said this decline will go much further/longer than most can begin to imagine.
Present day, what do we discuss every day? How we nailed it? No, the discussion gravitates from RE to politics to alternative investments to currency debasement to wine to strollers, etc.. Bottom line RE is dead, there is no interest, on a relative basis.
Discussions, outside of RE, sometimes reach a feverish pitch since there is so much at stake. We, our lifetime, have never been confronted with such serious issues before. Consequently, we argue the by products of this; deflation, inflation, slog. Of course it gets heated, it’s emotional. Personally, I love to hear the opposite point of view, from those I respect.
Let’s agree on one thing. If we decide to buy RE, we will all be in a position to buy at 30-50% off peak. That’s how we arrived on this site and I guarantee most will attain this. RE taxes/unions in NJ? No argument there.
Remember I was called a pompous ass in 2005 for stating a 20-40% decline, nominal. We don’t know, at this time, who’ll be right in 2013. We should all just get a grip.
Chi,
Just walked past Cammarano HQ. From the number of people outside it looks like a landslide. You’re lucky you moved out of this sh*tberg.
#271 Stu: The market has clearly sensed signs of recovery even though earnings are still plunging
Makes perfect sense.
I used to have some love for Strong Island, having spent my first 5 years on this planet in Merrick. My grandmother lived in Lynbrook until last year and I have a few friends who live out by Shorham which reminds me a bit of some of the lesser developed parts of central Jersey.
1) The traffic totally blows and the Jamaica transfer station on the LIRR should be imploded.
2) The Belt and Sunrise Highway should be imploded.
3) The party girls I sometimes partied with in my college days from Rockville Center were definitely looking for fist punchers and they should too be imploded.
4) Astroland? Already imploded.
5) Waldbaums and King Kullen, blammo.
6) Riverhead/Keyport boom!
I’ll stick with the garden state for now.
Who cares about abrasive. I like this site because its efficient in gaining news from sources outside the MSM. As far as real estate goes. I bought in May 2008 with 35% deposit. I pay double principle every month. According to Zillow I will be under water by January of next year. If someone like me that waited out the bubble goes down this country will officially be f#cked. There will be no one left to rescue it.
I dont worry though. A home is a home so long as you can afford it and your family is happy.
And right about now, the Mets will pull Santana and Parnell will blow it.
Chi,
Apparently she’s ahead, with two precints plus the absentee ballots to go. Hopefully she pulls it out.
http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2009/06/absentee_ballots_to_decide_hob.html
The Gerdau Ameristeel mill in Perth Amboy is being closed and production at the Sayreville steel mill is being suspended due to reduced demand for steel products, the company has announced.
About 165 union workers are scheduled to permanently lose their jobs at the Perth Amboy plant, according to James Stevens, United Steelworkers International staff representative.
http://tinyurl.com/mtenkm
Interesting quote in that piece:
“Did we see it (the plant closure) coming – maybe. But we hoped the economy would come back. Everyone’s hurting in the world we live in now,” Stevens said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1146549121&play=1
A resolute Elizabeth talking about TARP today. At the end, she points out that the funds will probably be “rolled over” unless someone calls Treasury on the point.
I remember reading a few weeks ago the language “at any given time” may be used to hold back on repaying the taxpayers as banks repay TARP.
We’ve got a couple other big cuts coming up in the next few weeks.
Global Pharma in Raritan – 129
PF Labs in Totowa – 67
State Street Bank in Princeton – 80
Childrens Place in Secaucus – 341
Gund in Edison – 44
Sodexho in Lakewood – 70
Filenes had announced 116 cuts next month, we’ll need to play that one by ear. We’ve got two store closings in NJ.
Also have E*Trade in JC making cuts next month, announced 171
297#, bob, good essay. i give u A-. see comments below:
>I don’t include Bi and Frank, they don’t actually know why they are here
to ensure fulfillment of my patriotic duty – paying capital gain tax.
>Now we have reached our destination,
if and only if you don’t hold srs;
>If we decide to buy RE, we will all be in a position to buy at 30-50% off peak.
for investment? maybe. for living more confortably? i don’t want to shorten my life.
#304 – When I was in grad school I used to work the midnight shift on a dock, we would pick up and deliver to the Sayerville plant all the time. It’s sad to see all of these jobs disappearing. I have to wonder about how many will come back.
Chi – has a point……
It’s Confirmation bias folks, we are all guilty of it.
Heck even I thought John was throwing good money after bad betting on bank bonds.
The end is never as near as you think folks.
Be strong, be smart….
Cheers
Sean
BC Bob says: “We all can be abrasive.”
that is true.
truth is that i purposely come here so others can rip my preconceived notions apart. i have no problem with chi’s criticisms. i welcome them, its just the gratuitous personal assaults that i can do without. Im sure its not the last time he will completely emasculate a perfectly plausible theory or blast into some unsuspecting poster for no good reason. im ok with that. we’re probably all guilty of that to a certain degree, as you say. its all good fun but sometimes if you give a rabid bully a stiff little jab to the lip, he chills out. thats all. of course then you also run the risk of making him freak out and the next thing you know, he’s body slamming your girlfriend and eating innocent people. im glad it didnt come to that. hopefully, we’ll all play nice in the sandbox going fwd, or not. i have no beef with anyone here.
grim, great charts as usual. i have come to depend on these.
there is so much noise bastardizing the data that i dont even read it anymore. Even if sales or prices are down tremendously, the media finds a way to emphasize only on the positives. and its confusing.
i’d rather just wait till you post the data and then decide for myself. Any of the first three say it all to me.
I’d also admit that your graphs have recenty painted a very different picture than my impression judging from local activity and anectdata. I could have sworn sales activity would have spiked in march-may. but they didnt. my realtor is a fair guy but probably would have not shared that little tid bit with me. thanks,
“Fudruckers–are the hamburgers any good?”
Morpheus, Hell yes. Any place that offers ostrich burger is top notch imo.
HE (283)-
Yeah, I’d like to see an intelligent bull RE site, too. Unfortunately, most of the bull argument rises no higher than Sue Adler level.
I take chi’s posts with a grain of salt. He’s coming from the profession of giving financial advice that’s distilled through a very tight, rigorous filter. My guess is that plying that trade in any other manner guarantees one a short career.
However, I don’t come here looking to be warned. I want to listen to- and promulgate- dangerous and unstable ideas. I think many of us here are of the same mind. The whole financial mess the world finds itself in is attributable to a sort of infectious mass hysteria that spread from the top levels of WS and DC into every nook and cranny of society. Now, the whole damn thing has devolved into a giant food fight, and I wanna dive right into the middle of the food fight and sling purple Jello and ketchup-soaked meat loaf everywhere.
The last thing you want to hear in the middle of a good food fight is a dutiful and conscientious A-student telling you that it’s probably not a good thing to hurl food, and that there will probably be consequences to come.
The A-student is right, and he’s a good guy. It’s just hard to dabble in a bit of the ultra-violence when someone is appealing to your conscience and higher senses.
grim, your charts suck. they are confirming your bias towards negative data. a chick at elon college told my suitemate from cornell that while i was exploring my sexuality at a depeche mode concert.
show some new data.
not that i care-i’m just better at diversifying than anyone else on the planet. plus, i have small onions.
315 for post of the day with 29 minutes left.
Nice.
#307 grim
On a good note,
Martys Shoes have bounced back from bankruptcy with 5 stores re-opening and I assume a big radio advertising budget.
“sn’t Maharashtra a state in India? So, are you saying that ISI is colluding with the Indian underworld?”
yes & yes
SAS
i think this is a borat obama moment:
last
SAS
i read this article it is really so nice thanks for post it.
I am typing this from the hq of mega real estate bubbles. In beijing, people are buying 2 br apartment in bulk at about US1mn each. Rental yield is abou 2pct, 3pct if lucky. People also buying 3/2 on no lot “golf community” 2hrs drive out of town as a weekend resort in middle of nowhere.Bank pays under 1pct, stock market rigged, and govt is pumping loans into real estate. I wonder if the Fed hopes to duplicate in US?
Also in Beijing a thing I haven’t seen before- shiny 20 floor office buildings left completely vacant.
Good morning all – looking for background on a recently changed listing MLS # 20830893 Allenhurst
Gorgeous home – any history?
At some point you have to realize the markets are tied to the wealth of the average person or blue collar worker.
While the average person is losing his or her shirt the Politicians and Wall Streeters want to get back to business as usual. This isn’t a business cycle so business will never be the same.
Rebuilding the occupational mainstays of working classes like manufacturing as was done after WII will go a long away in solving the current crisis.
I’m sorry but you can’t reduce the workforce an expect consumers to save the economy.It just isn’t going to happen.
You could see this coming. Wall Street trashes the US workforce then sells them homes that are now 10 times the price.
After WII the workforce prospered. After Viet Nam the decline began.
276:
Shhhhh. Jersey beaches all suck. Jersey is a hell-hole. NYers should stick to LI. It’s much nicer. Classier, too. The sand isn’t full of medical waste, asbestos, and metal shavings.
(stuck in GSP traffic last Sunday eve; doing what I can to ensure it doesn’t happen again.)
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