NJ bankruptcies up 44%

From the Record:

New Jersey bankruptcies surge

The number of bankruptcies in New Jersey surged by more than 40 percent over the last year as recession-battered consumers struggled with debts and job losses while businesses suffered shrinking revenue.

Personal and business bankruptcies rose to 3,269 statewide in July, up 44 percent from the same month in 2008, according to the latest figures available from U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New Jersey.

In Bergen County, personal bankruptcies rose even faster – 63 percent higher in July than a year earlier. Passaic County personal bankruptcies in July were up 59 percent over July 2008.

Personal bankruptcies accounted for about 95 percent of the state’s filings in July, court records show. About three-quarters of these were Chapter 7 filings, in which the filer does not seek to restructure debts but goes straight into liquidation.

In the 12 months ending July 31, business bankruptcies increased by 37 percent in Bergen and fell by 6 percent in Passaic over the prior 12 months. Seventy percent of the business filings in the period were Chapter 7 cases.

Bankruptcy attorneys said the numbers weren’t surprising given the poor economy. They cited mortgage problems and health care bills as the main factors behind most personal bankruptcies.

“We are not just talking about sub-prime at this point,” said Eric R. Perkins, a Ridgewood bankruptcy attorney. “You are [also] talking about properties that were appraised very high so that they could cash out.

“So now they have to pay these mortgages and they have either lost their jobs (or) their income has been reduced,” he said.

Jay B. Yacker, a Fort Lee bankruptcy attorney, said about 70 percent of his cases stem from real estate debt, where a few years ago 70 percent came from credit card debt.

“When the real estate market goes down it seems like the bankruptcies go flying up,” he said.

Sirota said he doesn’t expect the figures to improve soon, even if the economy does.

“The companies that are suffering have been suffering for a while,” he said. “And depending on the circumstances (they) can only hang in so long, before they need a relief of a bankruptcy proceeding. The economy may not come back fast enough to save businesses that are in varying degrees of distress.”

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220 Responses to NJ bankruptcies up 44%

  1. grim says:

    From the Courier Post:

    Jobless rates stay stubbornly high in S.J.

    Unemployment in Camden and Gloucester counties is higher than the statewide average, and a closer look at the data reveals that some communities will have a bumpier road than others.

    According to June data released by the Labor Department, New Jersey’s 9.2 percent unemployment rate is in line with the nation’s 9.4 percent figure.

    By contrast, Camden County’s 10.2 percent unemployment leads the tri-county area, with Gloucester County at 9.7 percent and Burlington County at 8.6 percent.

    The city of Camden’s unemployment rates was 18 percent in June.

    “The recession is so closely tied to the housing problem,” said Howard Gillette, a Rutgers University-Camden professor who has researched the history of the struggling city. “People with limited incomes trying to find affordable housing opportunities have concentrated poverty in places like Camden.”

  2. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    ING profit slumps 96% on real-estate losses

    Shares in ING fell as much as 15% Wednesday after the Dutch banking and insurance firm said its second-quarter profit had been almost wiped out by falling property prices and rising bad debt charges.

    The group said its bottom line dropped 96% to 71 million euros from 1.92 billion euros a year earlier. Excluding charges related to its cost-cutting program and other one-off items, underlying profit fell 88% to 229 million euros.

    ING said the value of its real estate holdings fell 584 million euros as property prices continued to decline in many markets around the world. It also took another 323 million euros of write-downs on a portfolio of residential mortgage-backed securities in the U.S.

  3. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Realogy Reports Second-Quarter Loss of $15 Million

    Realogy Corp., the real estate broker acquired by Apollo Management LP for $6.8 billion in 2007, said its second-quarter loss narrowed after the company cut expenses to offset a decline in revenue.

    The net loss decreased to $15 million from $27 million a year earlier, Parsippany, New Jersey-based Realogy said today in a statement. Revenue dropped 27 percent to $1.02 billion.

    The residential real estate slump is cutting revenue for brokers including Realogy, owner of Coldwell Banker and Century 21. Prices are being brought down in part by discounts on foreclosures. U.S. foreclosure filings hit a record in the first half, a sign that job losses and falling property prices deepened the housing recession, according to data provider RealtyTrac Inc. of Irvine, California.

    Revenue from commissions fell 28 percent to $746 million, and the average price of brokered home sales fell 15 percent to $188,489, the Realogy said. Franchise fees dropped to $72 million from $91 million a year earlier. Expenses declined to $1.04 billion from $1.44 billion.

  4. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    Realogy loss narrows, says no housing rebound yet

    Real estate broker Realogy Corp, owner of Century 21 and Coldwell Banker, reported a net loss of $15 million for the second quarter and said the pace of declines in home sales was slowing, but it was too soon to call a rebound.

    Sales fell 27 percent to $1.02 billion, but expenses fell more steeply and the company’s net loss narrowed from $27 million a year ago.

    Parsippany, New Jersey-based Realogy said it was well positioned to capitalize on a recovery in the U.S. housing market, but said it was too soon to say a rebound has gotten under way.

  5. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Toll Brothers revenue down 42%, new contracts rise (value of those new contracts is down 5%)

    House builder Toll Brothers Inc. said Wednesday that fiscal third-quarter home building revenue fell 42% to $461.3 million, with units down 36% to 792. Net signed contracts in the quarter ended July 31 rose 3% to 837 units, though the value of those contracts fell 5% to $447.7 million. The group’s backlog at the end of the quarter was down 47% at $930.7 million. The group said it was the first time in sixteen quarters that its net contracts signed exceeded the prior year’s level. “While we have to work very hard for our sales, it does feel as if the fence-sitters are looking for reasons to jump in on the side of buying. Price is no longer the overwhelmingly dominant factor,” said CEO Robert Toll.

    If price isn’t the overwhelmingly dominant factor, why did you need to cut prices to increase sales? Oh, I see, price still is the dominant factor, it’s just not overwhelming anymore.

  6. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Grim,

    Did you read that NY Mag piece on Williamsburg? Toll was/is dumping all kinds of inventory via 20-30% price drops. Who are they kidding?

  7. DL says:

    “People with limited incomes trying to find affordable housing opportunities have concentrated poverty in places like Camden.”

    You need a PHd to make an observation like that? And people with money willing to overbid for McMansions have concentrated wealth in places like…

    Now if only we had a program to force towns to build affordable housing so we could spread the poverty. Wait…we do!

  8. DL says:

    “It took the couple until January — while they were still searching for an active senior community — to finally make a difficult decision: They would not put their home up for sale.

    They are far from alone. Real estate agents in the District and the region say a growing number of clients are waiting to list their homes.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/07/AR2009080701727.html

    Some “pant” up supply to go along with that pant up demand.

  9. The only supply that is pant-up is sellers.

  10. For the record, I think we are less than a month away from huge financial upheavals.

    I honestly do hope I’m wrong.

  11. ruggles says:

    11 – from last thread – thanks lostinny

  12. homeboken says:

    Anyone else read this report from CEPR? I found the 2013 equity projections to be very valuable. I think this report sums up the rent:buy ratio better than anywhere. Thoughts?

    http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/100city-2009-08.pdf

  13. nj escapee says:

    Looks like Roubini and Faber have softened their gloom and doom predictions. Does someone at cnbc have a gun pointed at them? or maybe we’ll be okay afterall.

  14. ruggles says:

    8 – “Now if only we had a program to force towns to build affordable housing so we could spread the poverty. Wait…we do!”

    Luckily that program allowed rich towns to sell some of their low income obligations (for less than it actually costs to build them) to the poor towns so they could better manage the undesirables.

  15. stan says:

    He- Grim.

    Toll projects in Hoboken are the next to get the massive price cut. I forgot who predicted it here, it may have been several posters, but they had Bob Toll and the fact that he would undercut those he just sold to pegged exactly right.

    Very interesting to see this play out.

  16. Deflation hits p0rn industry? Now, I know we’re in trouble:

    http://tinyurl.com/lsbomj

  17. escapee (15)-

    Both those guys are way smarter than me, but I think they are looking at the numbers- and the massive gubmint attempt to stim in the absence of consumer spending- and concluding that a technical end to the recession may be at hand.

    I’m gonna bet that economists in Japan were saying the same sort of things 2-3 years into their crisis. A big part of being able to endure a 20-year recession has probably got to be developing the ability to narrowfocus on micro issues and ignore the pervasive macro collapse of everything.

  18. stan (17)-

    Toll has no choice. Neither does any other builder.

    I’d suggest that no one buy a new home until they come up with gap insurance for RE.

  19. John says:

    so do I on the upside. little correction now and then straight to S&P 1,200

    Cyclonic Action Vacuum says:
    August 12, 2009 at 7:50 am
    For the record, I think we are less than a month away from huge financial upheavals.

    I honestly do hope I’m wrong.

  20. John says:

    “Cash-for-clunkers was the icing on the cake,” said David Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. “It’s well-timed stimulus syncing with cyclical forces leading to a ramping up of production.”

  21. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Have the week off work. Nice day in Spring Lake yesterday. Yankees game today.

    Tomorrow’s the big day though, get to relive some of John’s old memories:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RfUMBgfhn0

  22. Cindy says:

    Enjoy HE – Life is good – today anyway.

  23. Cindy says:

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/more-possible-bidders-for-guaranty-bank.html

    Looks like the Guarantee Bank I was worried about last week will live to see another day…today anyway.

  24. lostinny says:

    23 Hehehe

    I have to live surrounded by this. I don’t need youtube.

  25. Cindy (25)-

    Looks like they’re on life support, though.

    Wonder how involved Sheila baby is in pimping this broken-down ho to the most motivated john.

  26. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Lost,

    I am pretty sure that is one of the Beatitudes:

    “Blessed is he who endures the Guido they shall enjoy steroid hair-gel free silence in Heaven.”

  27. lost (26)-

    Fist-pumping guidos not your type?

  28. Cindy says:

    27 – I bet she is VERY involved. Reminds me a bit of WAMU. $14B – 160 branches – it would be the largest this year. Check out the other outfit mentioned in the piece – even bigger…

  29. Sean says:

    re: Williamsburg lots of coverage on their bust. It is being compared to Miami and the NY Daily News isn’t helping sell those 650/sf 1 br condos with stories like these.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/brooklyn/2009/07/15/2009-07-15_hordes_of_hobos_set_up_shop_in_williamsburg_punks_invade_neighborhood.html#ixzz0LKt4T9OH&D

  30. Painhrtz says:

    Guys I was at a jackals game 2 weeks ago they actually have a guido fist pump contest in between innings.

    Clot/Grim question for you not looking for the usual answer “Can’t get tomorrows price today”

    found a house in Randolph we like MLS# 2682240 owner is carrying minial debt on the house needs upgrades on windows, bathrooms, no hardwood has sub floors 1st and 2nd level. we were thinking of coming in 20% under ask. Not sure of all the comps in the area but it looks like a similar house sold around the price range of our offer. Here is the kicker, owner bought a lakeside aligator in Virginia for sub 900K. think we are urinating in the wind with our offer or should we give it a shot

  31. SG says:

    in NYC,

    DISTRESSED REAL ESTATE SUMMIT

    Speaker: Robert Shiller

  32. Sean says:

    grim #34 in mod – NY times story on NJ Retail space.

  33. John says:

    ChiFI my ultimate Junk bond purchase of the day. A 10% coupon priced at 33. Now all I need is AMR to last 3 years so I get all my money back. Oh well. The fun begins. Maybe they will send me some flight coupons in the bankruptcy like TWA did.

    Status Filled at $33.40
    Bond CUSIP 00176LCU3
    Description AMR CORP DEL MEDTERM NTS BE 10.15000% 05/15/2020FR
    Action Buy

  34. Cindy says:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8a5f8bf8-860d-11de-98de-00144feabdc0.html

    “NY Fed in hiring spree as assets soar”

    Clot – Something interesting…This article (I posted it earlier in the week when we were kidding about possible employment for Ben) was referenced in the comments section at Calculated Risk.

    From the article: “..She said many of the new programmes – ranging from first-ever purchases of mortgage-backed securities, to lending money to hedge funds to buy securities backed by loans – “needed their own resources.”

    The question: Since when does the NY Fed loan money to hedge funds?

    I don’t know about such things but it would appear the NY Fed is planning to need extra help for some time – 240 to 400 employees.

  35. chicagofinance says:

    Do you have a problem?
    1-800-GAMBLER

    36.John says:
    August 12, 2009 at 9:00 am
    ChiFI my ultimate Junk bond purchase of the day. A 10% coupon priced at 33. Now all I need is AMR to last 3 years so I get all my money back. Oh well. The fun begins. Maybe they will send me some flight coupons in the bankruptcy like TWA did.

    Status Filled at $33.40
    Bond CUSIP 00176LCU3
    Description AMR CORP DEL MEDTERM NTS BE 10.15000% 05/15/2020FR
    Action Buy

  36. chicagofinance says:

    15.nj escapee says:
    August 12, 2009 at 8:00 am
    Looks like Roubini and Faber have softened their gloom and doom predictions. Does someone at cnbc have a gun pointed at them? or maybe we’ll be okay afterall.

    could be sign of a top?

  37. chicagofinance says:

    It’s George Costanza shrinkage…..

    14.Cyclonic Action Vacuum says:
    August 12, 2009 at 8:00 am
    Could this spark something bigger?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&sid=a28wvMdynO0s

  38. John says:

    Not a single defaulted bond in 2009!!! Come on man with a bond at 30 with a 10% coupon I only need three years to get back my 30 considering a zero percent recovery rate.

    I like 10% and over on investment grade and 30% and over on junk. The pickings are slim to none lately.

    chicagofinance says:
    August 12, 2009 at 9:07 am
    Do you have a problem?
    1-800-GAMBLER

    36.John says:

  39. chicagofinance says:

    6.grim says:
    August 12, 2009 at 7:07 am
    From MarketWatch:

    Toll Brothers revenue down 42%, new contracts rise (value of those new contracts is down 5%)

    grim: Bob Toll is so full of sh!t that it comes out of his ears. BUT the impressive thing about the diminutive Bob Toll is that even if he was twice as tall, he would still have plenty enough sh!t to make it up to his ears.

  40. chicagofinance says:

    42.John says:
    August 12, 2009 at 9:15 am
    I like 10% and over on investment grade and 30% and over on junk. The pickings are slim to none lately.

    JJ: Think what that means…..don’t get an itchy trigger figure….you’ll turn into albani.

    If you need to get your rocks off, go have sex in a bathroom like Pitino, shoot heroin in Williamsburg, or play some video poker.

    There is going to be a hiccup in here. Don’t deploy capital when the spreads have tightened up this much this quickly….yes?

  41. randy says:

    bankruptcies way up?

    no surprise really, people forgot how to save for rainy day approx 15 years ago.

    we’re a bunch of losers! nobody takes responsibility for their actions any more… so sad.

  42. John says:

    Chifi you laughed at american axle at 17 a few weeks ago, it is pushing 70 now. Crazy stuff. You have to trade this market. Buy the junk at peanuts ride it to 70-90, sell and put half in investment grade and throw half back into some other junk to ride to 70-90. Lather rinse repeat. Basically this strategy is on last legs, but it was all I had after my go long muni approach and then 2Big2fail and then buy insurance bonds and then buy auto bonds approachs wound down. I am getting bored of game lately and all the good stuff is gone, I only buy bonds a few times a month instead of a few times a day. I think the appetitie in DC to bail things out is done, however bonds are overpriced to reflect less risk as they still think DC will bail them out.

  43. John says:

    I know I know, maybe I will find a secretary to go to stone street with me and then a quick visit to a “couples room” or an unisex bathroom.

    BTW run an investment grade 9% or higher search and see next to nothing pop up, three months ago you would have pages of inventory.

    chicagofinance says:
    August 12, 2009 at 9:18 am
    42.John says:
    August 12, 2009 at 9:15 am
    I like 10% and over on investment grade and 30% and over on junk. The pickings are slim to none lately.

    JJ: Think what that means…..don’t get an itchy trigger figure….you’ll turn into albani.

    If you need to get your rocks off, go have sex in a bathroom like Pitino, shoot heroin in Williamsburg, or play some video poker.

    There is going to be a hiccup in here. Don’t deploy capital when the spreads have tightened up this much this quickly….yes?

  44. make money says:

    JJ: Think what that means…..don’t get an itchy trigger figure….you’ll turn into albani.

    ChiFi,

    What exactly does this mean?

  45. Cindy says:

    http://www.city-data.com/city/Aptos-California.html

    Heading to Aptos in an hour or so…

    Have a great day…

    C.

  46. pain (32)-

    Sorry. Don’t know the area.

  47. Cindy (37)-

    The Fed IS a hedge fund.

  48. Painhrtz says:

    thanks anyway Clot figured I would throw it out there

  49. This is what it’s all come down to:

    “Buy the junk at peanuts ride it to 70-90, sell and put half in investment grade and throw half back into some other junk to ride to 70-90. Lather rinse repeat.”

  50. John says:

    ChiFi, don’t get so Fibonacci with me.

  51. John says:

    This months version. I am the Joe Torre of investing. RE, Stocks, Bonds require a constant changing of strategies. Some appear to make no sense but if it works it works and as soon as it don’t work run away. That is why some people went broke flipping houses, they should have never kept rolling the whole nut and sticking with it in 2007 when the tide had already gone out.

    Cyclonic Action Vacuum says:
    August 12, 2009 at 9:53 am
    This is what it’s all come down to:

    “Buy the junk at peanuts ride it to 70-90, sell and put half in investment grade and throw half back into some other junk to ride to 70-90. Lather rinse repeat.”

  52. John says:

    Airline stocks climb with wider market

    Well ah shucks that was a good 10 minutes of waiting for good news on my recent Airline bond purchase. It is like I went all Jennifer Love Hewlit and talked to the dead, buy airlines buy airlines.

  53. Cindy says:

    Grim – 50 and 51 are in mod. I mentioned a beach city where I am headed for today….there must be a dirty word in the link or something…

    Have a great day all….

  54. Morpheus says:

    update:
    went to look at the property one last time and talked to the neighbor: nice family, lot a wee bit larger, house about 200 Sq feet smaller.

    They bought in 2006. Pulled the tax records and their price was within $3000 of the asking price of the house that I was bidding on.

    Therefore, the ask on the house was peak pricing.

    Therefore, I have bid at least 15k over what the house was worth. I let emotion get in the way of logic and business.

    Backyard is a little too small. Difficult to park the camping trailer in front of the house or in the driveway.

    In addition to pulling the comps, I guess one should pull prices on similarly properties that sold in 2006 to really get a feel for what the property should be valued. A real eye opener.

    seems that present owner is not even selling the property at “today”‘s price (which I would have taken, i.e, 22-25% off of peak)

    Since offer has been rejected, my uncle who is an out of state mortgage broker has suggested I cool my heels for a bit and let the seller make the next move.

    I think if the seller comes back to me, next month, my offer will be reduced.

    All in all, thanks for everyone’s help.

  55. John (55)-

    When I hear people say stuff like this about themselves, they are about a month away from being fed their spleens.

    “I am the Joe Torre of investing.”

  56. …although I do like your strategies.

  57. veto that says:

    I’ve started to look at town homes recently. Some of them are really nice 2,000 sq ft with basements and double garages.
    They are almost all newer construction 0-15 yrs old which concerns me since they look cheaply built but i cant tell if they are cheaply built or if thats just how newer construction looks.
    Anyway, I see no correction in prices at all. They are all selling at 2006 levels. Maybe 5% correction from peak if anything.
    I guess the lower priced homes are flooded with demand as a result of this housing crisis as people get foreclosed on their mcmansions and downsize from their 5 bedroom homes down to more practical homes. Plus alot of the retirees are probably going to lower priced homes too i would imagine they are not all going to senior villages.
    Its annoying. Case shiller shows 24% price reduction but lower/mid priced homes in strong nj neighborhoods are seeing more like 5-10% corrections.
    I wonder if the inner cities and 600K + homes are making up a huge portion of the price corrections while everything else will just hold steady. That would kill me.

  58. Victorian says:

    S&P in 4 figures again! All is right with the world.

  59. John says:

    Remember Joe Torre got fired and ran out of NY.

    Cyclonic Action Vacuum says:
    August 12, 2009 at 10:27 am
    John (55)-

    When I hear people say stuff like this about themselves, they are about a month away from being fed their spleens.

    “I am the Joe Torre of investing.”

  60. John says:

    Rockville Center Long Island fell 5% last year while one mile away Freeport fell 25% last year. Can you guess which is more affluent and with a better train station?

  61. John (64)-

    Two years from now, they’ll both be in the crapper.

    No one will be spared.

  62. make money says:

    http://www.housingwire.com/2009/08/11/new-york-plans-20m-in-mortgage-tax-credits/

    Clot,

    NY has a plan to combat housing that is bound to prevent market forces.

  63. John says:

    People have a very strange response to selling for a loss in certain towns. I see rich towns in hamptons where home sales have ground to a halt. The price is lower, but no one is selling. Seller irrationally sit on dead money for years till market comes back, people being foreclosed on or are broke just sell at the market price. Hence the Freeport versus RVC craziness, also a lot of better towns like the Hamptons people have smaller mortgages so they can afford to wait it out even in a job loss. My brother for instance lives in a 900K home with a 40K mortgage. When he was out of work he would not be forced into a sale. The Freeport crowd who paid 500K with nothing down at 8% have a 4K mortage plus taxes are around 9k a year or around 750 a month, an unemployed bus driver with a wife who is an unemployed clerk can last 90 days with that monthly payment. Freeport Foreclosures are sky high.

    Cyclonic Action Vacuum says:
    August 12, 2009 at 10:40 am
    John (64)-

    Two years from now, they’ll both be in the crapper.

    No one will be spared.

  64. chicagofinance says:

    John says:
    August 12, 2009 at 9:56 am
    I am the Joe Torre of investing. RE, Stocks, Bonds require a constant changing of strategies. Some appear to make no sense but if it works it works and as soon as it don’t work run away.

    Joe Torre build an entire reputation on one pitcher Mariano Rivera. The rest of it was a bonfire that was built with live middle relievers – Karsay, Nelson et al……the guy is horrendously overrated. However, I give him credit for what he is doing in LA. He definitely has a touch….

  65. chicagofinance says:

    make money says:
    August 12, 2009 at 9:27 am

    JJ: Think what that means…..don’t get an itchy trigger figure….you’ll turn into albani. ChiFi, What exactly does this mean?

    Albani: you say it yourself…you get bored and go stir crazy….

  66. chicagofinance says:

    Does anyone know whether this place is any good?
    http://www.marmararestaurant.com/

  67. chicagofinance says:

    John says:
    August 12, 2009 at 9:54 am
    ChiFi, don’t get so Fibonacci with me.

    That’s Bost’s bailiwick

  68. NJGator says:

    Still no end to foreclosure mess

    They started coming in at the end of May: Warnings to Montclair homeowners that they are in jeopardy of losing their homes.

    Lenders send them to borrowers when their mortgage payments are 90 days or more late, commencing the foreclosure process. In January, Gov. Jon Corzine signed into law the Mortgage Stabilization and Relief Act, which requires lenders to provide the pre-foreclosure notices to municipal clerks as well.

    It’s the first time that local governments have been able to collect their own data on how many homeowners in their municipalities face the threat of foreclosure. Since late May, when the first pre-foreclosure notice made its way to Municipal Clerk Linda Wanat’s office, the clerk has collected 26 notices.

    Karen Kadus, Montclair’s planning and community development director, said there’s no way of knowing whether that’s an alarming number for Montclair, since the municipality did not receive the information before.

    Kadus’ office and the Code Enforcement Department receive the notices, too, so they can help residents stave off foreclosure, if possible. Knowing where troubled properties are helps municipal officials keep them from becoming blighted if foreclosure occurs, Kadus added.

    “I’m mapping them and I’m seeing them all over town,” she said. “All over town.”

    Neighboring municipalities are also dealing with a trickle – or flood – of pre-foreclosure notices. Nutley’s clerk has received 27 notices since late April, while Glen Ridge has only seven. In Bloomfield, the deputy clerk’s office has received at least 56 notices.

    “And that may not be all of them … It’s sad,” said Bonnie Triola, Bloomfield’s deputy clerk.

    http://www.montclairtimes.com/NC/0/2543.html

  69. kettle1 says:

    DL 9

    “People with limited incomes trying to find affordable housing opportunities have concentrated poverty in places like Camden.”

    This will probably come across wrong, but….

    So what. In what world do the rich and poor live in the same conditions? Telling people where they may or may not live is not the solution. The people with money can and will simply move to another enclave of their choosing in force heir current one open.

    I am not suggesting the status quo is good or the best solution. But the wealthy will always live in nicer areas with lower crime then the poor.

    You want a real solution to camden and newark? Thats easy. Decriminalize all drugs and treat them as a medical problem. if you are really serious about it, legalize them. If you wipe out the black market for illicit substances the crime and decay in newark and camden would be manageable.

    Such a solution would pay dividends overnight.

    On top of that stop trying to push home ownership on low income groups. it has been shown in a number of different studies i have seen that home ownership often has a net negative impact on ow income families as it reduces employment mobility and has a greater carrying costs (repairs, taxs, etc) then renting. Home owner ship is not a panacea or a right. Its a financial decision that is often confused with an emotional one.

    Trying to solve the housing issue in the ways discussed is like trying to cure the disease by treating the symptoms.

    And in honor of SAS, certain groups make way to much money off depressed urban areas for the government to actually do anything substantial about it. Look into HUD and where its money goes……

  70. veto that says:

    “an unemployed bus driver with a wife who is an unemployed clerk can last 90 days with that monthly payment.”

    john, i agree with your whole theory there.
    If nothing else, the stronger towns have residents with stronger balance sheets and can wait longer before they have to sell or default. Got fired last month but they were getting 30K bonuses for 7 years straight so now many of them will just use some of their savings to pay mortgage while they wait for economy to turn around. It could take years before they run down their resources and savings. Thats what i am afraid of. Not that prices wont go down in these towns but that it will take 5-10 years before it happens.
    Im seeing that with my own eyes. The town we want to move to is high socioeconomics and there is zero inventory. Meanwhile the town next to it is much more blue collar and people are selling left and right. They are practically giving the homes away and a good 20% are distressed sales.

  71. kettle1 says:

    Shore:

    OT but is this on your radar at all?

    A senior politician in South Sudan says the south will declare independence if it does not get a fair referendum on the issue
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8195973.stm

    South Sudan has noticeable reserves of both oil and phosphates. 2 of the more valuable resources. It seems north Sudan would be hosed if the south breaks away and it is left without an high value resources. This has to be carrying some interesting political back games with the regional political powers

  72. kettle1 says:

    Veto.

    we will see one of 2 scenarios.’

    A: Thats what i am afraid of. Not that prices wont go down in these towns but that it will take 5-10 years before it happens.

    B: a continued slow slide followed by a fall off of a cliff.

    either way you are looking at a scale of years to get what you want. and by that point it may be relative. If the economy continues to go down the drain the way its headed in a few years the tax liability of what you are currently looking at may make them a much higher liability and less attractive to you even if you have the financial resources.

  73. John says:

    turkish revenge

  74. veto that says:

    Ket,
    Here is the scenario im waiting for.

    C. buying of treas halts, mortg rates shoot to 7.5%-8% and home prices collapse another 10-12% across the board in a matter of 3 months.

  75. Stu says:

    veto that (79):

    “buying of treas halts”

    Will this ever really happen?

  76. bi says:

    post#11 = 70% MM + 20% opium + 10% hypocricy
    >Cyclonic Action Vacuum says:
    August 12, 2009 at 7:50 am
    For the record, I think we are less than a month away from huge financial upheavals.

    I honestly do hope I’m wrong.

  77. kettle1 says:

    79 veto,

    thats the cliff in scenario B, my personal bet is on that scenario. The 2000’s RE market is dependent on consumers using leveagre the same way the investment banks were. without that leverage the bubbleicious RE game is over.

    My guess is that the rate cliff could be as far as a year out at this point. depending on when the bond market starts to seriously call bernanke and timmy out

  78. kettle1 says:

    Stu, 80

    No, but the rate that is required to generate investor interest is going to get quite painful.

    what do you do when your interest payments are 1/4 of you national tax receipts and you have 65-100 trillion in unfunded liabilities?

  79. JS says:

    Nothin to see here folks…move along

    Officials see rise in militia groups across U.S.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090812/ap_on_re_us/us_militia_movement

    WASHINGTON – Militia groups with gripes against the government are regrouping across the country and could grow rapidly, according to an organization that tracks such trends.

    The stress of a poor economy and a liberal administration led by a black president are among the causes for the recent rise, the report from the Southern Poverty Law Center says. Conspiracy theories about a secret Mexican plan to reclaim the Southwest are also growing amid the public debate about illegal immigration.

    Bart McEntire, a special agent with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, told SPLC researchers that this is the most growth he’s seen in more than a decade.

    “All it’s lacking is a spark,” McEntire said in the report.

    snip

    “White supremacists and militias are more violent and thus more likely to conduct mass-casualty attacks on the scale of the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing,” the threat projection said.

    A series of domestic terrorism incidents over the past year have not been directly tied to organized militias, but the rhetoric behind some of the crimes are similar with that of the militia movement. For instance, the man charged with the April killings of three Pittsburgh police officers posted some of his views online. Richard Andrew Poplawski wrote that U.S. troops could be used against American citizens, and he thinks a gun ban could be coming.

    The FBI’s assistant director for counterterrorism, Michael Heimbach, said that law enforcement officials need to identify people who go beyond hateful rhetoric and decide to commit violent acts and crimes. Heimbach said one of the bigger challenges is identifying the lone-wolf offenders.

    One alleged example of a lone-wolf offender is the 88-year-old man charged in the June shooting death of a guard at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington.

  80. Firestormik says:

    Shore Guy says:
    August 12, 2009 at 1:30 am
    Fire,

    What is your impression of the SC shore area?
    —————————————
    Comparing to places in Florida I’ve been, I like it better. Buisiness is down here, but not that much as in Florida – it feels more alive.

  81. renter says:

    Kettle1

    You are exactly right. The taxes for almost every house we look into are at or extremely close to $12,000 a year. We have seen houses listed at less then $400,000 with this level of property tax.
    It is a very frightening thing to take on because you never know how fast it can go up. If you don’t have the resources to handle huge increases then it is a risky proposition for a family.

  82. Stu says:

    Ket (83):

    “what do you do when your interest payments are 1/4 of you national tax receipts and you have 65-100 trillion in unfunded liabilities?”

    Oh that’s easy. You unzip Wen Jiabao’s fly and then get down on your knees.

  83. veto that says:

    “buying of treas halts”
    “Will this ever really happen?”

    I dont know but im thinking once the economy gets stabilized the feds will slow or halt the treas purch program as a precursor to raising the short term int rates.
    Buyers of treas are going to demand an increasingly higher yield as our default risk increases with our debtto gdp ratio. Although i guess they can just keep rates low for a long time if the third world continues to save. If thats the case then scenario c doesnt happen and i eventually break down and buy a town home at 2006-07 prices. beautiful.

  84. Stu says:

    veto that (88):

    “i eventually break down and buy a town home at 2006-07 prices. beautiful.”

    What is wrong with renting. Considering the property tax structure in NJ, renting for perpetuity appears to be a much better option. Let your landlord deal with the $1,000/year property tax increases that are coming your way shortly. Eventually, he/she won’t be able to transfer all of the increases to your rental rates and then houses should get cheap enough to buy. The affordability equation will eventually come into play. Wall Street (only game in town) simply is not large enough to buy every house in every train town.

  85. #84 – Pure scare tactics and media fear mongering. Even a mildly close reading of the text of the article pulls it entirely apart.
    1) The report claiming a rise in militias/right-wing extremism isn’t from the ATF, it’s from the Southern Poverty Law Center. The SPLC spoke with an ATF agent who is quoted in the report. The headline in crap, at best. At worst it is purposefully misleading. I won’t even start on the dubious nature of the SPLC as that is an ad hominem.
    2) As evidence of the rise of the right wing a youtube video is cited (seriously ?) with 60,000 views. Following this logic I’m going to claim this video with a massive 5.9 million views as evidence of a kitteh based plan to topple the U.S.
    I’d also noted that the previous video is guaranteed to increase beyond the 60k views now that it has been mentioned in the article, which will be used as evidence in future articles of ‘increasing interest in right wing extremism’.
    3)The article refers to a rise in anti-govt sentiment which it refuses to quantify. How do you quantify it anyway? How is this not even questioned by the AP reporter writing this article?
    It does feature a lot of references to Ruby Ridge and Waco though. Just incase you hadn’t gotten the idea. Ruby Ridge is militia based now? Are families militias?
    4)I’m just going to quote from the article here;
    A series of domestic terrorism incidents over the past year have not been directly tied to organized militias
    Why mention them?
    One alleged example of a lone-wolf offender is the 88-year-old man charged in the June shooting death of a guard at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington.
    Ah, the ‘lone wolf’ militia! The proverbial militia of one.
    There’s a lot more I could go on about here but I’m way way off topic. Articles like this actually anger me. Both because there are actual things that should be reported on but are ignored for this sort of fear-mongering cheap ploy and because they think I’m stupid enough to fall for it.
    I seriously won’t be weeping should the AP choke and die.
    Apologies and rant off.

  86. kettle1 says:

    Stu,

    jump into a multiyear rental agreement with a fixed rent! yeehaw

  87. kettle1 says:

    Tosh 90

    But you are forgetting the Army’s recruiting motto…

    Army of One

  88. kettle1 says:

    Veto,

    wait for the real pain to start when SS Medicaid/care and other social safety net programs start seeing real cuts. Especially the one for retiree’s and elderly, then you will hear the boomers really yell and scream.

    there wont be a choice in the matter though when the bond traders call oout Ben and Tim

  89. make money says:

    http://www.teslamotors.com/models/index.php

    Any thoughts on this. I checked it out and it seems too good to be true. Apparently tesla is now being backed by Daimler and they turned a profit.

    If you add the 7,500 rebate from Omama and the fact that it cost $4.00 worth of electricity to drive 200 miles it’s actually pretty cheap.

    Any thoughts on the S model.

  90. make money says:

    Albani: you say it yourself…you get bored and go stir crazy….

    You’re right I do get bored. Better bored then broke though. I never gable my retirement away though. Unless you consider Gold gambling.

    I think it’s safer then T-bills.

  91. JS says:

    Tosh (90) – No apology needed, glad to hear your analysis. I think it is mostly bogus considering its from AP/Yahoo, just interesting to see what kind of fear mongering is going on out there.

  92. #94 – make – I honestly hope Tesla succeeds. The reviews of the roadster are a bit mixed but I dig the Model S a lot and hope they can bring it in at their stated price point.

  93. veto that says:

    Probably should consider renting a bigger place instead of buying. This seems like it may be a drawn out scenario. I was hoping for a quick 2-3 year 40% price correction. Nothing is ever easy.

  94. make money says:

    Tosh,

    I think I’m gonna put a deposit this week.

  95. kettle1 says:

    Make,

    My question is battery lifespan/managment. Most modern high capacity batteries last only a fraction of their stated life spans if you continually deep discharge them (i.e. run them close to dead, or even less then 50% for some types)

    For a pure electric i do not know how they plan to manage this, as with an all electric vehicle the most common mode of operation would be to deep discharge the battery.

    there are a few battery techs that can handle this but they are not as developed as Lithium Ion is.

    i have to wonder if Tesla is playing the same game that Chevy is with hyping unrealistic ( yet technically true) stats as a sales pitch.

    Pure electric works, but not very well with the long distance suburbia transport model we currently have.

  96. kettle1 says:

    On a side note, time to invest in polymer membrane manufacturers……

  97. #99 – It’s a great looking car, similar to a Maserati Granturismo, only cheaper and green.

  98. Ben says:

    Veto, as far as town homes go, check the fire proofing. I was in North Brunswick last year and saw a fire in one of those complexes. I believe it’s one of Khovs. The thing is, they somehow got a code waiver to not fireproof the roofs of the homes. A fire started in one, went up to the roof, then spread to the every town home that was connected. The big problem is, in your own home, you can jump out the side window no problem. In these places, you don’t have a side window. You are enclosed in 2 walls with no fire escape.

  99. #100 – i have to wonder if Tesla is playing the same game that Chevy is.

    Well, there were some questions regarding their previous vehicle when
    Top Gear reviewed it.

    /disclaimer – It’s Top Gear, not journalism. So take it for what it is.

  100. Secondary Market says:

    for my south jersey brethren: thoughts on Voorhees? i spotted a short sale on a beautiful tudor style on a lake.

  101. Kettle1 says:

    Tosh / make

    get an Ariel Atom

  102. #106 – There’s a new 500hp version of the Atom, which is completely ridiculous. Even the regular version comes out to north of $50k I believe, which is too much for a sunny weather weekend car.

  103. daddyo says:

    “C. buying of treas halts, mortg rates shoot to 7.5%-8% and home prices collapse another 10-12% across the board in a matter of 3 months.”

    The Fed has indicated the treasury purchases are coming to an end. They didn’t play nearly as significant a role as the MBS purchases, where the Fed dominates the market. Fed has made no indication of pulling back on MBS purchases.

    Regardless, if treasury rates go up (not sure they will), and mortgages rates hit 7-8%, you can be fairly sure that home prices will go down more than 10%. Based on cash flows, holding monthly payments steady, a 1% increase in mortgage rates is roughly 10% decrease in mortgage size / home price.

  104. north of $50k
    Ah, the base is apparently $65k.

  105. zieba says:

    A 500hp Atom??

    Wow. How do you keep all that power connected to the ground with a body that light? Instant platinum member status at the tire rack.

  106. veto that says:

    that atom is rediculous. You can finally race motorcycles off the line and win.
    If pulling up in one of those doesnt scare the inlaws i dont know what will… gotta get one.

  107. make money says:

    Kettle, Tosh,

    I only drive about 30 miles a day. Just like my cell phone I have to remember to plug it at night.

    top gear is a joke.

    I spoke to two people who own the roadster over the phone and they love it. Apparently in some states you can drive on the HOV lane due to 0 emmissions provisions and in NJ there is no sales tax.

    I have a dream that I will not buy another gallon of gas after 2012.

    I kinda like the design od the S model as well. It’s a cross between and Aston Martin and a XF Jaguar. It looks beautiful and according to the numbers you don’t give up anything in the performance either.

    I will keep you posted as how it performs when I get in in 2011.

  108. #100 – How do you keep all that power connected to the ground with a body that light?
    No traction control either. Guaranteed to be bags of fun, right up until it kills you.

  109. jcer says:

    My issue with the Tesla Model S as i looked at it yesterday, the base model they talk about only has 160mi range, as opposed to the advertised 300mi, With a range of 300mi I’d be in great shape, 160 I would have the discharge issue.

  110. Groundballgolfer says:

    Voorhees? I am renting there. Highest taxes in SJ.

  111. Barbara says:

    74. kettle
    “You want a real solution to camden and newark? Thats easy. Decriminalize all drugs and treat them as a medical problem. if you are really serious about it, legalize them. If you wipe out the black market for illicit substances the crime and decay in newark and camden would be manageable.”

    Kettle, have you ever lived in an inner city? I have, and there is NO OTHER ECONOMY OTHER THAN DRUG DEALING. None, nada, nothing. You rip out that economy and the crime will not only increase, but it will spread, out.
    I support legalization, but it won’t save innercities. Bad schools, drug addiction, fragmented to nonexsistant families, govt dependency will still exsist after the drugs are legal.

  112. Barbara says:

    105.
    Voorhees is top notch. Best schools and some decent construction. Probably the best non-historic suburban town in SJ.

  113. make money says:

    Jcer,

    You can always upgrade. Who buys base model on any car. Base model is just to get you in the showroom.

    My view is that I will assume possession in early 2012 and if my battery only last 5 years by 2017 I’m sure teh batteries will be much better and much cheaper to replace.

    In addition, I feel like the ones who buy the S model now are contributing towards the advancment of the techonologies to manufacture a mass produced cheap EV.

    I think I’m just as excited as when I first bought my 318 BMW convertible back in ’91.

  114. jcer says:

    That said, I agree make, perhaps when I need a new car in 5 years that will be on my list.

  115. daddyo says:

    My parents live in Voorhees, they complain about the taxes on a daily basis, and this was after living in Northern NJ for 10 years.

    They love the town though.

  116. #115 – Thanks ket !

  117. kettle1 says:

    why dont we give a few billion to Tesla Motors instead of the big 3? would be much better spent

    Barbara,

    would make for an interesting debate at a GTG. In short addressing dugs in not the solution but a major preliminary step, Without which most other efforts are doomed

  118. kettle1 says:

    make,

    i like your outlook :)

    another question though. How does the battery system handle extreme cold? what happens when you have the car in NJ or further north and the temp gets to single digits overnight and only in the teens during the day. lithium ion does not like cold temperatures. most batteries do not.

    The same issue if your in arizona. most batteries have a narrow optimal temp range to operate efficiently.

    All these questions may have been addressed, but i would be very curious to see how they solved some of these issues.

    Note that if i had the 50K i would be all over one of those!!!!!

  119. Secondary Market says:

    in re voorhees:

    thanks for the info. funny you mention taxes because the house i’m interested is 3k less then any of the cherry hill homes i liked. however, it’s been very difficult to find taxes lower then 10k anywhere.

  120. kettle1 says:

    Jcer,

    integrating solar panels into the exterior of the car body could be an interesting approach to help maintain batteries and extend battery life. Its not a dense power source, but a constant flow of low density energy can be useful if managed properly.

    The catch is most likely in the cost portion of the cost benefit analysis.

    An after market kit for that would be a great item for those who are willing to drop the cash.

  121. Stu says:

    “Note that if i had the 50K i would be all over one of those!!!!!”

    If you had 50K, you wouldn’t be worried about paying an extra $1 per gallon at the pump either.

  122. Stu says:

    The real root of the problem is that it costs a lot of green to be green. Until this changes (most likely through fed subsidies and more importantly, Chinese giv subsidies), there is really little hope for stopping global warming.

  123. veto that says:

    Just updated this ‘NY CS Price to NE Rent’ chart and thought it was interesting. Took a nice dive recently, although looks like plenty of room to correct further.

    http://tinyurl.com/mznehv

  124. daddyo says:

    So my parents watched 2 houses on their block sell this month at just off-peak prices. They challenged the tax assessment a few months ago, and got about a 5% haircut.

    Not sure how, but Voorhees seems to be holding up.

    They live in Sturbridge Woods (I think that’s the name).

  125. PGC says:

    Before people go off on a legalize crusade, they should try to understand the issue. I don’t know for sure, but I would assume that dealing would account for about 60% of the ghetto GDP.

    Here is a great read to get a better understanding of the financial impact.

    http://www.amazon.com/Off-Books-Underground-Economy-Urban/dp/0674023552

  126. JS says:

    Speaking of green cars…

    Honda Prefers Hydrogen as U.S. Pushes Battery Autos (Update1)

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=atHH0LYy6MYA

    Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) — Honda Motor Co. is backing hydrogen power for the cars of the future, a stance at odds with the Obama administration’s decision to drop automotive fuel-cell technology in favor of battery-run vehicles.

    “Fuel-cell cars will become necessary,” said Takashi Moriya, head of Tokyo-based Honda’s group developing the technology. “We’re positioning it as the ultimate zero-emission car.”

  127. John says:

    FOMC has left the target for Discount and Fed Fund rates unchanged at 0 to .25%. The statement was unchanged as well. The SPX and DJI indexes are unchanged from just before the announcement

  128. RU says:

    #126 Secondary,
    Stay away from anything in Camden County. The taxes are way too high. A better alternative is Burlington County (Marlton) or Gloucester County. You’d still be just as close to everything but paying less in taxes.

  129. Clotpoll says:

    ZIRP as permanent Fed policy.

    Seems like a good a time as any to audit the Fed and disband it.

  130. Clotpoll says:

    SRS behaving really well post-announcement.

  131. Stu says:

    “The Fed said it would gradually slow the pace of its program to buy Treasury securities so that it will shut down at the end of October, versus September.”

    Things are going so well that we need to push the closure date back a month.

  132. Stu says:

    Clot,

    Don’t get the troll going again.

  133. Clotpoll says:

    Stu (139)-

    The only things that can stop him are a bullet or a pair of iron mittens.

    I’d add lobotomy to that list, but I’m pretty sure he’s had one.

  134. bi says:

    137#, by lady cindy the teacher, it was a dead issue. now you have revived the ghost.

    it bounced a few percents from low. that’s it. get it out and go back to your beach vacation.

  135. bi says:

    for long term, we don’t know what happens or will happen behind. with TOL up 14%, the market perception is we are bottoming out.

  136. John says:

    SRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSRSS

  137. Kettle1 says:

    We’re bottoming?!?!?!

    Sweet, I just went all in an Srs bi

  138. John says:

    ZIRP combined with 10% long term investment grade bonds is a recipe for disaster once short term rates rise.

    Clotpoll says:
    August 12, 2009 at 2:31 pm
    ZIRP as permanent Fed policy.

    Seems like a good a time as any to audit the Fed and disband it.

  139. John says:

    Stop the pillow talk.

    Kettle1 says:
    August 12, 2009 at 3:00 pm
    We’re bottoming?!?!?!

    Sweet, I just went all in an Srs bi

  140. bi says:

    144#, kettle, it’s dangerous game as i told you before. market perception and real economy are two different things. they eventually will converge but you will have already gotten broken by then.

  141. kettle1 says:

    Bi,

    i am joking as i do not talk up my investments one way or other on this blog

  142. x-underwriter says:

    JS says:
    Honda Prefers Hydrogen as U.S. Pushes Battery Autos

    My dad used to work in the oil and gas industry.
    I was talking to him several years ago about hydrogen cars. His response was, “If you’ve ever seen a hydrogen fire or explosion, you’d know that’s a really bad idea”.
    Remember the Hindenburg…..hydrogen isn’t more friendly now than it was 80 years ago

  143. lostinny says:

    28 & 29 HEHEHE & Dyson

    No not my type. I do hope heaven is guido free. But I’m not going to heaven so I’m sure I will have to endure them in the afterlife.

  144. reynon says:

    would agree with john on 1100 to 1200 range, but for perhaps a different reason, non fundamental. there’s a gap down on the spy from last october which is begging to get filled. will it get there is anyone’s guess, but i would put the odds in favor of this. my guess would be that we could see a new high with a lower rsi which would signal a better entry for shorts. i’m playing this with a call spread on the sds. i know my risk, and my upside is fairly good balanced by some reduced, but nevertheless existing long positions, especially with the volatilty being quite low at present. i can live with the potential loss against my longs should it not work out the way i expect. not for nothing but a crash right now seems unlikley. i think the bullishness can continue for a while longer until nobody expects a crash.

  145. Stu says:

    “If you’ve ever seen a hydrogen fire or explosion, you’d know that’s a really bad idea”

    But the potential is there. Lot’s of power, endless supply, no pollution.

  146. John says:

    Kettle it is hard to talk up your investments with Bi with your face buried in a pillow.

    kettle1 says:
    August 12, 2009 at 3:20 pm
    Bi,

    i am joking as i do not talk up my investments one way or other on this blog

  147. kettle1 says:

    I dont now john, my GM stock is doing well and the builders are showing real strength

    ;)

  148. John says:

    http://www.thesmokinggun.com/mugshots/gottimug1.html

    Here is my favorite pictures of my favorite John

  149. JS says:

    x-underwriter(149) – I wouldn’t bet against Honda, they were making fuel efficient cars when it wasn’t popular to do so.

    lostinny(150) – Hell is D’Jais on a Saturday night between Memorial and Labor day.

  150. make money says:

    Kettle,

    You don’t need 50K today. You just need 5K now and 25% down later. BOA is offering financing now.

    Anyway..it is what it is.

    My wife want’s one too now. I should have never told her about it. I wonder if I can negotiate a deal if I buy two. They now have a sales place on 25th st and 10th ave.

    Anyone wanaa buy a 2007 S type R Jag with 20K miles?

  151. kettle1 says:

    JS

    Hydrogen?????????????

    You better start build a whole lot of High temperature gas cooled nuclear reactors if you want a commercially viable supply of hydrogen at anything approaching a reasonable cost.

    Oh and those take about 8 – 12 years to go from paper to fully operational…….

    you’ll need a few dozen at minimum.

    Unless you have a whole lot of HTGC nuclear reactors AND a distribution network in place the only place where hydrogen makes any sense right now MIGHT be iceland where they have excess geothermal available to generate H2.

    Without HTGC reactors or an abundant source of cheap geothermal, you use oil/gas to make hydrogen. Why would you use the oil/gas to make hydrogen when you can run it in an ICE instead. adding the extra step of oil- hydrogen- engine is a waste as opposed to a more inefficient cycle of oil-engine.

    Oh and electrolysis…. not any better (see using HTGC reactors or geothermal)

  152. Stu says:

    You want efficiency? Check out this set of wheels.

    http://tinyurl.com/Efficient-Auto

  153. kettle1 says:

    Stu,

    Actually i believe that bicycles are one of the most energy efficient modes of transportation.

    But you need an SUV? dont worry, they have that covered too

    http://www.davidwilsonindustries.com/gallery/cargo/borracho/borracho01.jpg

  154. x-underwriter says:

    Stu says:
    But the potential is there. Lot’s of power, endless supply, no pollution.

    I agree that hydrogen is an awesome fuel but there’s a few problems.

    1. The entire vehicle fuel infrastructure in the US needs to be revamped to distrbute hydrogen. Right now, there’s nothing except maybe LA and NYC. That’s at least a decade and $trillions. Electricity on the other hand, is already built out..however rickety the system is.

    2. By the time you get done making it, gas is still way cheaper than hydrogen. Unless we get a magical free power source to make the stuff, it’s not an economically viable business model.

    3. As I stated before…Hydrogen is very volatile. You can expect some serious catastrophes with it.

    It’s one of those dream scenarios that just doesn’t make financial sense before you even get started.

  155. kettle1 says:

    X

    The hindenburg most likely went due to the exterior coating on the canvas cover which was essentially soild rocket fuel and not grounded to the internal gas bag.

    Stu,

    There is no significant supply of free hydrogen gas on the planet. Hydrogen gas on this planet is an energy carrier, not an energy source. Unless someone perfects nuclear fusion then hydrogen will not be a cheap abundant fuel.

    For all intents and purposes hydrogne is just a chemical battery. Hydrogen is also very difficult to store and has a very low energy density compared to liquid fuels.

    The thing about hydrogen that makes it hard to handle is that it embrittles metals and must be stored at very high pressures to carry any significant amount of it.

  156. kettle1 says:

    X

    i disagree with your assessment of the danger of hydrogen gas. but will save the debate for a gtg. in short its probably safer then natural gas or propane

  157. BklynHawk says:

    Hey,
    It’s the NJ Real Estate, Fire Arms, Investing Tips, Wine, Chemistry and Engineering Report!

  158. kettle1 says:

    hawk,

    fire arms and RE, the only 2 constants on this blog…. ;)

  159. John says:

    I did in WWI and WW2 and it worked out fine.

    JS says:
    August 12, 2009 at 3:45 pm
    x-underwriter(149) – I wouldn’t bet against Honda, they were making fuel efficient cars when it wasn’t popular to do so.

    lostinny(150) – Hell is D’Jais on a Saturday night between Memorial and Labor day.

  160. tinkerbell says:

    another “underwater” homeowner ,he just took the quickest route http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMCqUimJmks&feature=relatede ..

  161. JS says:

    170 – This is coming from the same guy driving a Beamer?

  162. #170 – I did in WWI and WW2

    1) We didn’t fight the Japanese in WWI.
    2) Honda was founded in `48, after WWII. Try Mitsubishi.
    3) Next time include some funny with your ‘jokes’.
    4) How old are you grandpa?
    5) What JS said.

  163. lostinny says:

    158 JS
    You wouldn’t catch me at that place if I was on fire and they were the only ones in the world that had water.

  164. Pat says:

    X@n@x please…and no bathroom breaks.

    I took the little one to a creek yesterday. It was a surprise, so we swam in our clothes.

    We hiked, saw a five-foot snake and I put her in the current and told her to try to swim.

    She laughed and laughed.

    But last night, she couldn’t get to sleep. Screamed down the steps that she was being carried away.

    The risks must be dealt with later.

  165. d2b says:

    Do all of the 3x funds have the same decay problem of SRS/SKF?

    If they do, why not buy a 2011 put and sit back and watch them rot?

  166. d2b says:

    Anybody have any experience with learning a foreign language as an adult? I’m thinking of trying to learn Spanish.

    I can’t speak a lick of the languages that I studied in high school/college?
    German (HS-80s) and French (College-80s)

  167. x-underwriter says:

    kettle1 (166)

    You probably forgot more on the subject than I’ll ever know.
    I’ve been meaning to make it to one of the GTG’s…maybe the next time one is in Central Jersey or Mo’town

  168. safeashouses says:

    #178 d2b

    go to how-to-learn-any-language.com

    It’s a forum on learning foreign languages. People talk about their methods and give reviews resources, pros and cons. Ways to learn how to learn.

    The members range from people learning their first foreign language, to polyglots and authors of study material. There’s even a professor who can speak a few dozen languages who posts advice in his own section.

  169. x-underwriter says:

    John says:
    I did in WWI and WW2 and it worked out fine.

    Don’t forget that the Japs sunk the Lusitania and invaded Poland

  170. kettle1 says:

    179 X

    as a janitor who eats a lot of burritos i know a lot about hydrogen and methane gases. Especially the combustion there of ;)

  171. x-underwriter says:

    Kettle,
    Is this you in the video?

    http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=9c4_1229117913

    It reminds me of the refinery on the Turnpike near the airport

  172. kettle1 says:

    X a quickie on gases:

    one ( of many) factors in safety of gases is its explosive limit, LEL and UEL

    (LEL): The lowest concentration in air at which ignition can occur.

    (UEL): The highest concentration of vapor in air at which ignition can occur.

    now some example gases

    Hydrogen LEL = 4.0%, UEL = 75%

    Gasoline LEL = 1.4% UEL = 7.6%

    Propane LEL = 2.1% UEL = 9.5%

    This shows that gasoline vapor and propane gas will both reach an explosive concentration at a lower level then hydrogen.
    Hydrgen is also the lightest as and therefore dissipates very rapidly when released from a container. Heavier gases such as propane, natural gas, or gasoline vapors evaporate mush slower and can therefore “pool” and reach explosive limits easier then hydrogen.

    Hydrogen requires caution in that the flame produced by hydrogen can be very hard to see as it is a very pale blue color. a hydrogen flame may not be immediately obvious in daylight conditions.

    a brief comparison……

  173. kettle1 says:

    X 183

    I have had a tour of that facility. Nasty place, but unavoidable if you want to use fossil fuels. The control center is designed as a bomb shelter in case the place goes up. That way the controllers can still try to shut things down, and the workers have a safe place to take shelter.

  174. x-underwriter says:

    Thanks,
    I heard a story about some guys standing around at a plant that made hydrogen.

    There was a small leak which caught on fire. Nobody saw it until somebody’s pants caught on fire (no joke)

  175. kettle1 says:

    X

    i will now be added to any watch list i may not currently be on for saying this, but if you want to talk about dangerous, an LNG tanker (Liquified Natural Gas)would likely be an easy target to detonate (relatively speaking of course) and if done near a populated area…..

    well this will give you and idea (different fuel source, but could have similar results in a worst case scenario)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_City_Disaster

  176. Firestormik says:

    RE: Efficient cars:
    Check this out
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAfhDB0CDr4

  177. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    D@mn that John sure can bust a move:

  178. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    D@mn that John sure can bust a move, check the playa out:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GnyMfMasJI

  179. x-underwriter says:

    My biggest concern regarding electric cars is the battery life. I heard the batteries to the Chevy Volt run $12 or 14 thousand. A typical gas car engine lasts 200,000 miles without any major work, given it’s maintained. A new engine is what, 4 or 5 thousand?
    I’d hate to plunk down $30,000 on an electric car and then have to replace the batteries every 3 years at $12,000 a pop

  180. SG says:

    Finance’s bleeding spills into waterfront’s offices

    The job losses that rippled through the financial and insurance services sectors last year are now trickling into the New Jersey office market, as an increasing amount of space is being made available, particularly on the Hudson Waterfront. But some insiders say while companies have excess space to shed, many are choosing to hold their space, rather than put it on the market.

    New Jersey employed 202,400 people in the financial and insurance sectors in June, down from 211,300 people during the same time a year ago, according to the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

    More than 1.7 million square feet in the Hudson Waterfront office submarket — which, at 18.5 million square feet, is the state’s largest — was available for sublease in mid-2009, up from 953,565 square feet during the same time a year ago, according to Grubb & Ellis, a commercial real estate services firm.

  181. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    When he ain’t trading bonds he’s gettin his groove on!

  182. veto that says:

    SG, What the heck is going on?
    Prices are rising in some parts, including ny and maryland…

    “The biggest increase in prices was in the Davenport-Moline- Rock Island area of Illinois and Iowa, where prices surged 30.6 percent to $113,200 from a year earlier. The second biggest jump was in the Cumberland metro area of Maryland and West Virginia, where prices rose 21.7 percent. The Elmira, New York, area had the third-biggest increase, where prices rose 11.3 percent.”

  183. Firestormik says:

    RE: 184 Kettle, One more thing to add. Propane is heavier than air. So it tends to accumulate in cavities below the ground. Think about your basement.
    I had a car with dual gas\propane tanks. 20 gallon propane tank in the trunk.

  184. Jaywalk says:

    Grim,

    Check your email…

  185. Maury Povich says:

    not so breaking news..

    “John Edwards, You ARE the Father”

    congratulations to a new father!

    instead of being in a White House trying to avoid prison and alimony..how things change.

  186. kettle1 says:

    Techno Viking!

    johns secret identity?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Smtqf5wAr8

  187. kettle1 says:

    Fire

    Phosgene gas (poisonous) was used in WWI for that very reason. It would pool in the trenches….

  188. yo'me says:

    Here comes johnny!!

  189. Sean says:

    I won’t be moving to Montclair now. Stu your town spanks it.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/08/montclair_shuts_down_fetish_sh.html

  190. kettle1 says:

    OT

    Thats a lot of hotdogs

    The Half-Million-Dollar Weiner:How can New York City hot dog vendors afford a monthly rent of $53,558?

    A hot dog vendor was kicked from the curb outside New York City’s Metropolitan Museum of Art last week for failure to pay his monthly rent—of $53,558. Pasang Sherpa was under contract to pay the Parks Department $362,201 a year for a stand on the south side of the Met’s entrance and $280,500 for another on the north side. That’s a lot of hot dogs. With rent astronomically high, how much do New York City hot dog vendors actually make?

    http://www.slate.com/id/2224941/

  191. RayC says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/13/business/economy/13fed.html?hp

    This article in the NYTimes starts

    Almost exactly two years after it embarked on what was the biggest financial rescue in American history, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday…

    Did I miss a year? I know it seems like a long time ago, but it was only a year ago, wasn’t it?

  192. sas says:

    hi everyone,

    just got back from Tunisia, and now enjoying some sausages on the grill while I drink a beer with my pal Julio.

    Tunisia is always an interesting place. Last time I was there in the mid 80s, a rogue outfit seeded by your loving set off some unusual packages.

    next thing we know in retaliation, some knucklehead is throwing Mr. Klinghoffer overboard, and I got F-14 Tomcat overhead.

    oh well, what can you do?
    SAS

  193. sas says:

    “by your loving government”

    thats a critical piece of info.

    :P
    SAS

  194. sas says:

    remember my little lecture on deficits and govt contracts?

    “CHART OF THE DAY: Fiscal Meltdown!”
    http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-fiscal-meltdown-2009-8

    SAS

  195. bi says:

    wow what a U-turn!

    Paulson & Co. scoops up Bank of America shares worth about $2.67 billion, 4th-largest stake

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Paulson-fund-buys-168M-shares-apf-1522557404.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

  196. sas says:

    bi,

    interesting in that article:
    “Paulson also purchased sizable stakes last quarter in gold producers”

    SAS

  197. sas says:

    i like gold myself, but i think also stockpiling items is a great investment too. and i don’t just mean bullets.

    SAS

  198. Sean says:

    bi – was all over CNBC this evening, along with other bank stocks they purchased however they bought in the last quarter ended June 30 when it was 11 or 12 a share, no telling if they still are holding my guess is no.

  199. bi says:

    215# sas, welcome back.
    from previous disclosure, his fund also owns around 8% of GLD. with fund of his size, he certainly knows diversification. i was a bit surprised seeing he put so much money on a still-tarped company

  200. bi says:

    217#, he might have lightened during the rally last week. with that size, i doubt it can be easily unloaded completely.

  201. Shore Guy says:

    Did anyone else get to the Joe Bonamassa concert in Engelewood last night? The opening band was not very good but Joe was spot on.

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