From the Record:
North Jersey home prices steady in first quarter
Home prices in the New York metropolitan area, including North Jersey, rose slightly in the first quarter of 2010, in another sign that the housing market may be stabilizing.
The median price of an existing single-family home in the region hit $436,900 in the first quarter, up 2 percent from a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. But values have dropped since 2006 and 2007, when the median price was around $540,000.
Nationally, the median price of an existing single-family home was $166,100, down 0.7 percent from a year earlier.
The North Jersey price rise was in line with gains in household incomes, said Patrick O’Keefe, an economist with the accounting firm J.H. Cohn in Roseland.
“While the region’s economy is beginning to recover, it will be quite some time before business conditions — and employment — return to pre-recession levels,” he said. “As a consequence, housing will recover only slowly.”
The number of sales statewide was up 14.5 percent over the first quarter of 2009, probably because of an $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time home buyers and a $6,500 credit for repeat buyers. Since both credits expired April 30, buyers had an incentive to jump into the market during the first quarter. The increase in sales also reflected the fact that the market was very slow during the first quarter of 2009, which was just a few months after the financial market crisis.
The expiration of the tax credit may lead to slower home sales during the rest of 2010, some analysts say. In a recent report, appraiser Jeffrey Otteau of East Brunswick said the real estate market will be affected by the end of the tax credit and an expected rise in mortgage rates later this year. In addition, he said, the inventory of homes for sale has been rising in New Jersey, as homeowners who waited out the recession put their properties on the market.
“It appears likely that home sales will slow at some point later this year and then regain their recovery momentum heading into 2011,” Otteau said.
From the Press of Atlantic City:
Area home prices are down, and sales are up
Median home prices in southern New Jersey in the first quarter of 2010 were down 2.6 percent from the same period the year before, while nationwide prices fell by 0.7 percent, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
The region’s price drop, after near stability the previous quarter, went against a nation-leading 9 percent jump in home prices in the Northeast as a whole.
Sales levels were strong in the state, however, despite severe winter storms in January and February.
New Jersey was one of just three states (with Michigan and Wyoming) to show a gain in sales — up 6.8 percent from the prior quarter and 14.5 percent from the same period a year ago — in the Realtor report. The state’s annualized sales rate was 120,600 homes.
…
Carol Anderson, president of the Cape May County Association of Realtors, said home prices have fallen a bit as most sellers have become more realistic.
From the NAR, Year over Year change in metro prices (Q1):
New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ 2.1%
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 1.8%
NY: Newark-Union, NJ-PA 1.7%
NY: Edison, NJ 1.5%
Atlantic City -2.6%
Trenton-Ewing, NJ -8.9%
From the Morning Call:
Nearly 1 in 5 in Valley underwater on mortgage
Nearly one in five Lehigh Valley homeowners with a mortgage owed more on their loans than their homes were worth at the end of March, according to a report from the real estate tracking firm Zillow.
At the end of the first quarter, 17.8 percent of all owners of single-family homes with mortgages had negative equity in their homes, Zillow said. And 16.5 percent of all homes sold in the area in March were sold at a loss, according to Zillow.
The report, which includes data for Lehigh, Northampton and Carbon counties in Pennsylvania and Warren County, N.J., said home values slipped 2.1 percent year-over-year to $190,600. The Zillow Home Value Index estimates the value of all homes, not just those sold in a given period.
The median price of a home sold in March in Lehigh and Northampton counties was $172,750, according to the Prudential Patt, White Real Estate HomExpert Market Report. That was down 6.6 percent from a year ago, but up 4.7 percent from February.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/break-up-big-banks!-reinstate-glass-steagall!-nouriel-roubini%27s-rx-for-reg-reform-483349.html?tickers=xlf,skf,^dji,^gspc,FAZ,gs,JPM
Roubini from yesterday
“If Goldman Sachs wants to be a hedge fund, so be it, but there should be a level playing field,” he argued. “Other hedge funds don’t borrow at zero rate with the guarantee of the government.”
http://robertreich.org/post/591266284/lincoln-to-the-rescue
Lincoln to the Rescue
We hope…
They have gutted everything else –
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=abLZ3hHJjG5Q
One-time audit of the Fed….
Boy, this financial reform stuff is just humming along….gut this, gut that…
Volcker seems to think his “rule” will be enough…I’m with Roubini @ 3 – reinstate Glass-Steagall.
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/05/negative-equity-by-state-q1-2010.html
Negative equity by state… I thought CA was bad…check out Nevada.
Bergen county held up well. All clear.
Really close elections in our town last night. Avoided another Christie type by only a few votes.
Too big to fail is too big to exist. Unless the big banks are disassembled, nothing will change.
Think we’re headed toward a EUR/JPY figure-8 demolition crash again.
Reporting from the middle of nowhere in Gujarat – new condos are selling at pre-construction prices which would make Las Vegas at the top of the bubble blush. I told the guy who paid a deposit for an apartment worth 9x his annual salary he is nuts, and only tgraditional hospitality prevented him from hitting me. Though, it seems to be an only way to get an air-conditioned bedroom when it is 114F outside…
9 – Clot – I’m with you on that one….
All the way…
Did you catch this Daily Show? The Perfect Storm
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-may-10-2010/a-nightmare-on-wall-street
10- Clot – No doubt that will be another rare, 100-year event – You know a “Perfect Storm.”
Now, if this does not seem appropriate for many of our discussions, I don’t know what is (it is from the Toronto Star and I will post the link at the next traffic light):
HOME > CANADA > ARTICLE
CANADA
Deceased family were cheering Canadiens when home fell into sinkhole
May 12, 2010 06:05:00
Jonathan Montpetit
The Canadian Press
SAINT-JUDE, QUE.It took only an instant for an idyllic country scene to collapse in an apocalyptic abyss the earth opened, gobbled up part of a village, and dragged a family of four down to its death in a muddy crater.
Snip
#3 Cindy,
Goldman is doing God’s work. (Their execs say so too) They should be charging us to borrow our money.
http://mobile.thestar.com/mobile/canada/article/808175
“Goldman is doing Gods work.”
Remind me. Didn’nt God also “nuke” Soddom and also flood the earth, drowning all but a lucky few who were given insider information?
I guess it depends on whether one is thinking of God in the New Testament or the Old Testament.
17 – Shore – Ah, to be Noah….and to get to pick the @sses that come with you.
Perhaps Jonathan Edwards can shed some light on GS (Just replace “Israelites” with “non-Goldman employees, or “little people,” or whatever.):
http://edwards.yale.edu/archive?path=aHR0cDovL2Vkd2FyZHMueWFsZS5lZHUvY2dpLWJpbi9uZXdwaGlsby9nZXRvYmplY3QucGw/Yy4yMTo0Ny53amVv
Economy in the Hands of an Angry Goldman Sachs?
N. Jersey gets a 2.1% YoY unrealized gain to go with the 3% realized loss in property tax increase. All clear indeed.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/12/us/politics/12elect.html?ref=us
Veteran House Democrat Loses Seat in Primary
“The Mollohan loss is certain to intensify the political anxiety among lawmakers and heighten the perception that incumbents of both parties face a real risk of being rejected this year by a disgruntled and hostile electorate.”
I hope these jerks in Congress who keep gutting financial reform are watching.
If you are an incumbent – watch out.
MLS#: 2771672
36 Baker rd in Livingston was purchased a few years ago for 450k (I think) and now is back up for sale for 529k.
Looks like they may have redone the bathroom during their ownership, that’s about it..
will be interesting to see what it actually sells for…
14 Shore Knowing most fans of the Habs the uprorious cheering during game six the other night probably casued the sinkhole
8.
Essex,
Re: elections
Is that close election in Hudson County? If so then the masses have awakened. One way or another it doesnt matter because the IMF is coming. The gravy train is over on a global scale.
Soros and the horsemen are on the ride.
Saw a commercial on News 12 this morning. “If you want the true story about the New Jersey real estate market, visit realstorynj.com.”
Get beyond the headlines and find out what’s happening locally. Contact a REALTOR® today!
#17 Shore Guy
CDOs and CDS are the modern version of fire and brimstone.
Depression 2010?
By Robert Samuelson
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/05/12/depression_2010_105530.html
Things are better than stabilizing in my target towns. Sure, I will pay a premium to buy in but by the time I have to send the kids off to college, my 800k purchase will be worth twice that amount and will cover tuition.
I fully expect you all to be talking about how the RE crash is “just around the corner” 15 years from now.
Where is the self proclaimed genius Ben who suggested selling gold on craigs list to avoid taxes/premium?
http://www.cnn.com/2010/CRIME/05/11/washington.craigslist.killing/index.html?hpt=C1
Umm, Is there any way at all that this will not cause a massive crash of something, somewhere?
Property prices in China are finally starting to be impacted by the government’s tightening measures.
Sale prices of Beijing properties fell 31% from the first week of April to the first week of May.
Why Shanghai Real Estate Is The Most Obvious Bubble Ever
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-chinese-real-estate-bubble-is-the-most-obvious-bubble-ever-2010-1#property-values-are-rising-dramatically-1
One clear clue (regarding the rising real estate prices in China) is that the average price-to-income ratio in Beijing has reached 27:1, five times the world average.
In addition, the average price-to-rent ratio neared 500:1 in the city, far above the international alarm threshold of 300:1, which sends out a clear signal that the foundation of the real estate boom is losing stability.
Due to the shortage of women, men in China feel they need to buy a home in order to get married
Despite fears of an imminent bubble, investors are still buying up commercial real estate properties. All the big banks are getting involved, as if the U.S. housing bubble had never occurred.
250K
RE boom/bust cycles tend to last about 18 yrs or so. 15 years from now would put us in the vicinity of the top of the next boom. So yes, we may very well be talking about the next bust.
250K,
in 1992, the nominal bottom of the 90’s RE bust, your statement:
“I fully expect you all to be talking about how the RE crash is “just around the corner” 15 years from now.”
Would have been correct. Its likely to be correct in another 15 years as the people discussion the peak of the boom cycle at that period.
“self proclaimed genius Ben”
nw, ben seems like a smart kid but i just think he should stick to being smart about science.
His rambling regarding gold, investments and economy have more incongruent and unexplainable gaps than wikipedia.
Plus i think he suffers from what most other teachers suffer from. When you dont really know the answer, you just make something up that sounds good and then speak with authority.
I cant say i blame him for employing that technique. I’d prob do the same if i had 30 pimple-faced brats trying to break me down on a daily basis.
“Things are better than stabilizing in my target towns”
250K, I can honestly say that the market is as weak as its been in 7 years in my target towns.
Then again, im talking about the Trenton Central Jersey Region, not nnj.
Arizona bill targeting ethnic studies signed into law
A bill that aims to ban ethnic studies in Arizona schools was signed into law Tuesday by Gov. Jan Brewer, cheering critics who called such classes divisive and alarming others who said it’s yet another law targeting Latinos in the state.
The move comes less than 20 days after Brewer signed a controversial immigration bill that has caused widespread protests against the state. The governor’s press office did not return requests for comment Tuesday evening.
HB 2281 bans schools from teaching classes that are designed for students of a particular ethnic group, promote resentment or advocate ethnic solidarity over treating pupils as individuals. The bill also bans classes that promote the overthrow of the U.S. government.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-ethnic-studies-20100512,0,5313151.story
Shoe thrown at outspoken property developer.
NSFW: many of the comments contain pr0fanity.
http://www.chinasmack.com/2010/videos/ren-zhiqiang-outspoken-property-developer-shoe-throwing-incident.html
The article also translates 17 of his infamous quotes. My favorite one is “If you can’t afford a house, why not return to the countryside?”
Cabelas says it won’t open in Meadowlands Xanadu unless there is an ‘unbelievable opportunity’
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/05/cabela_says_it_wont_be_in_mead.html
So Gator I guess teaching Jefferson is out in AZ
Ben might be smart, but trying to sell gold on craigs list demonstrates a lack of common sense. It’s a great way to end up in a ditch or to have your home invaded.
Breaking – Flippers are back in Montclair. 43 Oxford closed in March for $327k. Just went back on the market for $615k. Will be interesting to see if they even get anywhere near that amount for a 69×85 lot with oil heat and no central air.
Anyone who wants to check out the Ikea staging can go to the open house on Sunday.
re 46 – GSMLS is 2770880.
I’m making an offer on a bank-owned house. Bank has appraisal on hand but will not release it. Bank says asking price is close to appraisal. I’m skeptical.
I guess they want to play hardball. Any thoughts?
Hyde, Veto:
Don’t feed the troll.
“Where is the self proclaimed genius Ben who suggested selling gold on craigs list to avoid taxes/premium?”
There you have it people. You can’t sell anything on craigslist anymore because you might die. You know, it is possible to arrange a sale without actually meeting in person. And no, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out how.
China could be the next Dubai, says Jim Chanos. Note that he has a pretty good track record of spotting bubbles.
Goldman Sachs is starting to sell too.
The bank just dumped some Shanghai property (Remember, these were the guys who even saw the US housing bubble popping!).
“Due to the shortage of women, men in China feel they need to buy a home in order to get married”
If Chinese lasses are at all like many here, a Chinese lad could just buy a hot car and settle for a series of cheap and tawdry romances, instead.
“nw, ben seems like a smart kid but i just think he should stick to being smart about science.
His rambling regarding gold, investments and economy have more incongruent and unexplainable gaps than wikipedia. ”
Please enlighten me on these so called gaps. It might simply be your refusal to acknowledge certain realities that have existed throughout history. Are you seriously going to argue with the results? I believe I recall you having same argument with me about Gold at $800. If you want to disprove me, come up with a plausible explanation as to why I’m wrong because the numbers and the results say I’m right and will likely continue to do so.
I can already can continue on with the “I told you so” rant but I’ll simply wait and revisit this again 1 year later with an even bigger one.
“Don’t feed the troll.”
Moose. Cmon now. Someone is allowed to think that prices are stabilizing without being a troll right? Especially when the NAR is providing data that backs this claim up.
Or is this person a known troll who has been here before?
The desk Im sitting at is 3000 Federal Reserve Notes new. I bought it 2 years old in great condition for 1000 FRN’s off craigslist.
Just so happens the person I bought it off of was moving out of NJ to Pennsylvania. Go figure.
“Ben might be smart, but trying to sell gold on craigs list demonstrates a lack of common sense. It’s a great way to end up in a ditch or to have your home invaded.”
Can you please stop talking?
1. I’m not selling my gold and haven’t sold it.
2. I don’t plan to sell it on craigslist. Your memory is so short you don’t even recall that I suggested selling it on ebay or to a private bullion dealer.
#46 Gator,
Nice to see rock ribbed Americans can go back to making a living flipping houses.
I looked at the pictures. I’m guessing about 50 to 60k in renovations to replace windows, and redo the kitchen and baths as long as no walls were taken down/moved and no new pipes run. No brand names mentioned so I doubt the house has kohler and miele in it. Or are they standard issue for a reno in Montklair so it is understood the house has those?
ok Ben, I enjoy the whole circular gold argument with everyone but the sole fact that you think that the past price performance of gold justifies anything at all – says a lot to prove my point.
If you did that in 2006 with home prices, you would be considered right. But still, everyone here would laugh at you for good reason.
Veto, Shore,
This blog called and debated the Chinese re bubble over a year ago, perhaps 2.
Lots of legitimate tranactions can be arranged on craigs list. I think it crosses a line when you get into black market items.
Also, I wouldn’t recommend selling jewelery/gold on there, even if it’s on the up-and-up. I think those items are likely to attract a certain element.
But you can’t learn those lessons in a science book.
#52 Shore Guy,
Who needs romance when you can get a ktv girl?
” Especially when the NAR is providing data that backs this claim up. ”
NAR? Please! It is absurd that the media keeps going back to that group and treating its data as unbiased. It is a trade group of comissioned sales people. What are the odds that they would think that the data, whatever it is, indicates that it is a good time for people to buy?
Prices going up? Better buy and catch the wave or be priced out FOREVER. Prices going down? There has never been a beyter time to buy. Prices flat? Buy before prices rise.
NAR has its viewpoint, and that is well and good; however, nobody should assume their data and pronouncements are unbiased.
Veto, Doom or others….can you recomend a buyers agent specializing in the low end of central Bucks Co PA (Yardley, Newtown Area right by the I95 bridge?). Would need to be low end enough that it would make some sense as a rental.
And while I know am too early, I convinced the missus to sell in 2006 because prices were crazy and have rented since…the wife wants out of our current place (and the landlord is selling, and no I will not pay anything he would take…I laughed in his face when he told me his asking price. Yes, he is a REALTOR (R) ) and she doesn’t want to move again for a while. I know prices will drop, but interest rates will go up, so I need it to make sense as a rental so that I put a 30 year mortgage on it and carry it as a rental.
Part of the bet is on NJ tax refugees like me continuing to buy up the close to the bridge properties.
Ben says:
May 12, 2010 at 9:51 am
“Ben might be smart, but trying to sell gold on craigs list demonstrates a lack of common sense. It’s a great way to end up in a ditch or to have your home invaded.”
Can you please stop talking?
You’re the one pumping gold.
I took issue with the gold drones suggesting that physical gold is highly liquid and can be transacted with low premiums. Neither are true.
ktv?
@31 – I don’t see why you’d ever need to sell gold anyway as it’s a currency.
Safe 57 – I think they may have added a bathroom too and renovated the 3rd floor. The old listing showed the house as a 3/1.5.
And there are plenty of cheap flips here, so Kohler and Miele are not understood.
Hyde and Veto – the Realtors here talk about how tough it is out there. I don’t discount their opinions and observations but that applies to THEIR specific markets. (Say, Somerset county.) RE is local after all.
What I am saying is that the brokers and agents in Westfield who were brokers and agents BEFORE the bubble started are not living in their cars. The pre-bubble RE professionals in Millburn/Short Hills are still making the lease payments on their Audi’s and Mercedes.
There has been a slight easing off peak prices in these towns but overall, these markets have held up incredibly well and will continue to do so. There never was a bloodbath. Those who participate in this forum and have been waiting for five years to “get in” to the top towns at a 2000 price point should start looking elsewhere. You can’t compete with the buying pool who still have jobs (yes 80-90% of us are still employed) and are paying what it takes to buy in. The $8,000 tax credit might be a driving force if you are buying in Linden, but its not if you are buying in prime Summit.
Towns with pre-existing conditions for a “hot” market continue to do well. (e.g. top schools, commutability, active downtowns, community recreational offerings, etc.) These are the towns approving their school budgets. You can mock the residents for their willingness to pay more in taxes all you want. They are willing to pay and have the money to do so.
Anon – sticks and stones…
Tampa, Florida– A 65-year old Tampa man is facing an aggravated battery charge, accused of attacking a US Census worker with a pickaxe.
Police say the alleged incident occurred in front of Willie Thigpen’s apartment on Mulberry Drive in the Sulpher Springs area of North Tampa.
Investigators believe the census worker, 52-year old Gregory Sijesta, was walking through the neighborhood door to door when he encountered a very upset Thigpen.
“He confronted the worker then went out to his car and pulled out a 10 pound pickaxe, and threatened him with it and tried to hit him with it,” says Tampa Police spokeswoman Laura McElroy.
http://www.wtsp.com/news/mostpop/story.aspx?storyid=131820
“This blog called and debated the Chinese re bubble over a year ago”
Hyde,
This blog churns out at least 3,000 rediculous claims and scenarios per second.
Many of them are bound to come true.
Many of them missed the mark or will never happen at all.
New York State’s Asbury Park?
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/12/nyregion/12newburgh.html?src=me&ref=general
“Gang violence is nothing new in this dilapidated city an hour north of Manhattan. Built along a scenic bluff on the west bank of the Hudson River, Newburgh has long been known for problems far out of proportion to its population of 29,000. In the 1960s and ’70s, it was racial strife and disastrous urban renewal efforts. In the 1980s, when the city was known as “crack alley,” it was drug-fueled violence, which has ebbed and flowed here ever since. “
70.
“This blog churns out at least 3,000 rediculous claims and scenarios per second.
Many of them are bound to come true”
Except mine, which only occur earlier than expected. The horsemen ride on.
“you’d ever need to sell gold anyway as it’s a currency.”
Meter, good point.
and never put a gold eagle in the soda machine.
250K
AHHHH the old “Sea of Wealth”.
You are also changing the subject. Neither veto or i specified specific towns. I personally responded to your 15 yr comment. Care to address that little point?
What you are describing with the ritzy town holding their now is essentially a brazilification of NJ. A picture for illustration
http://www.leelau.net/chai/images/Brazil/saoconrado.jpg
The end result of the current trends, assuming they hold (that is the ritzy holding up while everything else deteriorates) is a place that is very to live in and you should probably consider private security forces at your next neighborhood BBQ.
Your town holding up while the slums form around you is not my idea of a nice place to live, but to each their own.
#65 Shore guy,
Karaoke bars are very popular in Asia. You get a private sound proof room and can order appetizers and drinks while you sing karaoke. some places cater to couples and groups of friends out for wholesome fun, and some places provide young women to “entertain” the customers.
Veto,
the china bubble has been obvious from the start, when you have a 10 yr supply of empty commercial space, and entire ghost cities, its kind of a given. The question was and is how long the chinese government can float the bubble. they seem to be running out of steam.
“brokers and agents in Westfield who were brokers and agents BEFORE the bubble started are not living in their cars.”
250k, Are you an agent?
Because you smell like one.
But you make good points.
I dont think you are a troll for saying those things.
In fact most of your points are acknowledged here on a daily basis (by most of us anyway).
Prices havent collapsed in nj as much as other regions. And good towns have held up better than expected.
This is all true.
As a side-lined buyer waiting for reasonable pricing, I’m more frustrated about it than anything else.
But look at the problems and the wider economy. i wouldnt say its rosey either. Time will tell.
Bread & Circuses: Greece vs US Riots
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/bread-circuses-greece-vs-us-riots/
Veto 73
You wouldnt put a dollar coin in the soda machine either, buts its still currency. You also wouldnt put in euro or yen coins.
is the current definition of a currency defined as what forms of money a US soda machine will accept?
250K (68)-
When the RE holocaust hits your trendy little towns, don’t be surprised when your face starts peeling off.
No one will be spared. No one.
77 – hyde, yeah maybe.
The seperating factor from them and us is that they actually have an economy driving their growth.
Whereas we had growth in debt driving our economy.
Either way, I do think it will come crashing down. at some point.
http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/05/jon-stewart-kagans-exactly-like-harriet-miers—-except-for-the-dumb-part-video.php?ref=fpblg
Perhaps it is better to live in a world of magical thinking- and in the end, take a single, pole-ax kill shot- than to watch the goddam thing go down every single, inexorable day.
“Well there’s winners and there’s loooooooosers….they ain’t no big deal…” J.C.M
“don’t be surprised when your face starts peeling off”
I have visions of one of the last scenes in Raiders of the Lost Ark
Hyde, good point at 79.
Can i pay my bank loan and irs taxes with gold?
Because one of the pre-requisites of legal money is that you must be able to pay debts with it.
#67 Gator,
That listing makes a bit more sense than. Adding space and another bath does cost some cash.
I wonder what the taxes on that place will be when it gets reassessed with the upgrades.
Veto,
One may in Saudi Arabia.
And a $20 gold dollar may be worth more tha $20 but one could pay a $19 debt with it and get a dollar in change.
“Cause the simple man, baby, pays for the thrills, the bills and the pills that kill.” J.C.M
250k, the illusion of a healthy economy has buyers in top towns willing to allocate their resources and take on debt to buy a home. But the reality is we are sitting on a powder keg, if anything the market scare last week should be an indicator. When the economy picks up where it left off in 08, housing isn’t where you want to be.
NJ has constrained supply, which helps keep prices high, but if the jobs cannot support the prices it will not continue.
#8 – Essex,
You say that like it is a good thing…
Safe 87 – The old assessment was $453,800. I’d say worst case scenario the place goes at ask (really doubtful due to the small lot and lack of central air) then the town could defend against an assessment up to $615k. That would take the taxes for $10,800 to $14,680. I doubt they’ll go that high. And if they assess for higher than the sale price, the new owner would have a high liklihood of winning on appeal.
“One may in Saudi Arabia.”
Shore, Does this mean i have to move to saudia arabia for it to be money for me?
Veto, 86
to play devils advocate let me ask you, would a bank accept eur or jpy as payment for your CC or house note? I would guess they would not.
if i walked into a car dealer and offered to pay cash USD for a new aston martin they would accept it. I would also be willing to bet they would accept the equivalent amount of JPY EUR or Au as well. At a honda dealer, they probably only take USD.
Is the US penny a currency? Because my local court doesnt accept pennies when paying fines. They dont accept EUR JPY GBP AUD, etc either.
I am not taking sides in the shiny debate, just playing devils advocate.
Orion :48
“Bank has appraisal on hand but will not release it. Bank says asking price is close to appraisal.”
Hire your own local appraiser. Who knows what kind of crap appraisal this bank is using to set the value. Is it the StageCoach Bank?? or BoA? Their appraisals aren’t worth the sulfur to blow them to hell.
Make sure the comps you are using are all bank-owned properties is the same condition as the house you’re bidding on.
86.
In Argentina it was a good idea to have cash on hand as well as foreign currencies.
Best bet. Lock in your longterm debt at this interest rate. Ride gold and silver to 3000 and silver to 50. Liquidate some gold and silver bullion/shares paying off that fixed rate debt once the end game is in sight (new currency).
Now you are debt free and you can snuggle up to the new normal.
If you lose your income and austerity is in place then HELOC the sh#t out of your home and default.
AL,
if gold hits 3000 then i would expect to see silver closer to the 80-100 range
States: Let taxpayers cover your mortgage
http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/12/news/economy/taxpayer_mortgages/?hpt=P1&iref=NS1
Game over.
“Because my local court doesnt accept pennies when paying fines.”
Hyde,
I doubt you can buy a car in us using anything other than dollars. unless the salesman agrees to run down to the bank and exchange for you.
Also, your court doesnt accept cash? or pennies? Are you sure?
Veto,
As BC said the other day, a better overall definition of what a currency is may be what is traded on international FX markets. Both Au & Ag are on global FX markets
New York Times columnist David Leonhardt told readers today that the problem of the debt is “we, the people.” Is that so?
Was it we the people who were too dumb to see an $8 trillion housing bubble and recognize that its collapse would wreck the economy? No, that was the job of the great Maestro Alan Greenspan and his sidekick Alan Bernanke, the brilliant scholar of the Great Depression. It was also the job of all the economists who do research and opine to the public on the macroeconomy. Virtually all of these highly educated highly intelligent economists either did not see the bubble or insisted it was not worth their time.
Our deficit today is due to the collapse of this bubble. There is no dispute about this. If there had been no bubble and the economy was still chugging along with 4.5 percent unemployment, the budget would either be balanced or close enough that no serious person would be expressing alarm (check out the pre-crisis CBO projections).
Is our huge deficit a problem today? Not if you think people should have jobs. Private sector demand has plunged because of the collapse of the bubble. If the public sector does not fill the demand gap with deficit spending, then we have less demand and fewer jobs. That’s worth saying a few hundred thousand times since the deficit hawks have filled the airwaves and cyberspace with so much nonsense.
People who want smaller deficits want fewer jobs – that is the way the economy works right now. There is no plausible story through which cutting demand from the public sector will generate more jobs in the private sector.
How about those scary long-term deficit stories? It’s all health care; it’s all health care. Those who know arithmetic know this.
The deficit hawks tell us we can’t fix our health care system. What they actually mean is that they don’t want to confront the powerful interest groups that cause the United States to pay two or three times as much per person – with no obvious benefit – as people in other wealthy countries. It is easy to devise mechanisms that will get our costs more in line with other countries (e.g. this or this).
Because such measures threaten the incomes of powerful interest groups the politicians won’t push them. And, because they have not been endorsed by enough elite economists (you know, the folks that couldn’t $8 trillion housing bubble) elite journalists will not talk about them either. Instead, they will blame ordinary workers for thinking that they should be able to get a decent retirement and have the same sort of health care coverage as people in every other wealthy country.
Veto 100
They accept cash but do not accept pennies. I saw a judge fine someone for paying a $40 fine in pennies. he stated that that court does not accept pennies.
many federal offices also have policies of not accepting pennies.
Gator and Stu you’ll love this my inlaws nompound in the Adirondacks was reassessed to a 278% increase after a 100% increase last year. Basically the whole county is flipping their sh!t every property owner was at the county clerks on Monday according to my FIL. The median income up there is about 27K per year, most are employed by the state or county governments. Basically took a property assessed at 150K for 60 acres and a house and upped it 525K. My FIL law quoted one guy that basically said if my property is worth half a million find me a buyer becasue I’m going to leave.
You think MontKlair tax appeals are entertaining, imagine them with a heavily armed, anti government populace. I might take a day off on tax appeal day to watch the fireworks, 6 hour ride be damned
92. I tend to avoid the scorched earth approach to politics. Taxes are high. We need intelligent leadership. Not angry rants from morons who can’t even manage their own diet.
Friends of ours just got out of atty review on their house in BC. Was on the mkt last year and were low-balled so they yanked it. Put it on in March, dropping price by >3% vs. last year and had multiple offers. Sold for 2% off ask, which was in the low 7’s post-FTHB deadline.
250k is a troll because he makes sweeping assertions and audacious predictions without the benefit of data, facts or reason, and yet takes the time to belittle the group he’s addressing (“you all”), and presumably anyone who would dare disagragree.
Only in the real estate industry are such atributes at such a low level of compentcy financially rewarded.
30.250K says:
May 12, 2010 at 9:06 am
Things are better than stabilizing in my target towns. Sure, I will pay a premium to buy in but by the time I have to send the kids off to college, my 800k purchase will be worth twice that amount and will cover tuition.
I fully expect you all to be talking about how the RE crash is “just around the corner” 15 years from now.
“to play devils advocate let me ask you, would a bank accept eur or jpy as payment for your CC or house note? I would guess they would not.”
Guess my AAPL stock is currency too.
Please show me one place on earth you can walk into a shop and lay down a chunk of gold and say “I want to pay with this.”
“court does not accept pennies.”
Ha ha. Right. Probably because too many p’d off people who got tickets showed up with three buckets of pennies and dumped it into the payment window!
Veto,
I Just called the Ray Catena dealer and spoke to Gino in sales. According to him they would accept gold eagles for a new 911 carrera 4s, a $95K car.
“Does this mean i have to move to saudia arabia for it to be money for me”
Trty spending an East Caribbean Dollar at Shop Right, or a Brazilian Real or an Israeli Shekel at an Arcade or Bar in Seaside. Yes, money is largely local.
Hyde.
>> AHHHH the old “Sea of Wealth”.
Sea of wealth is not required to hold prices up in Westfield. A small pond of wealth will suffice.
>> You are also changing the subject.
Did not intend to change the subject so much as expand on it. Doom paints with broad strokes with his tales of woe in the region where he represents clients. I enjoy his mocking of the Ms. Adler’s of the world but perhaps if he were working the same territory, he would paint with different colors. Then again, he might just say it hasn’t reached her world yet.
>> Neither veto or i specified specific towns
Veto did not get as specific about target towns as I did but did say: “I can honestly say that the market is as weak as its been in 7 years in my target towns. Then again, im talking about the Trenton Central Jersey Region, not nnj.”
So that is more specific than “RE in general” or even “New Jersey”.
If someone has been looking in the towns I mentioned and has found it to be a buyers paradise, I welcome the input and counter-argument. I have no doubt that the Trenton Central region is not comparable to the more esteemed towns in Essex and Union counties that I am looking in.
I am not looking in any town that is surrounded by nothing but bucolic other towns. If I limit myself to that requirement, it narrows my choices too much. I admit I don’t want to buy in Maplewood but I am comfortable that if I am in Brigadoon, as the regulars here like to say, I won’t face imminent attack from my neighbors in Cranford, Clark, Mountainside, etc. unless you consider lacrosse sticks to be lethal weapons.
For the record, I am not an agent and no one in my household works in the Real Estate business in any way, shape or form. I am a frustrated buyer. I don’t see any benefit in waiting any longer to purchase a home. I am very uncertain about the economy but feel that taking on some debt in the form of a mortgage is a hedge against inflation. I have no problem with those who decide to rent for the next 10 years. I just don’t agree that anyone buying now is a certain bagholder.
meter 108,
see 110
@111, Shore –
“Trty spending an East Caribbean Dollar at Shop Right, or a Brazilian Real or an Israeli Shekel at an Arcade or Bar in Seaside. Yes, money is largely local.”
Yes, but a) why would you own Brazilian Reals in the first place? and b) You could use them in Brazil.
“According to him they would accept gold eagles for a new 911 carrera 4s, a $95K car.”
Hyde, Gino will say anything to get you into the shop. You will need a shower by the time you are done meeting with him and he explains the rate of conversion value of those gold coins.
Also, i traded a 2001 volvo to buy my last car and the dealer game me $7k for it. Does that mean that Volvo’s are currency too?
“and b) You could use them in Brazil.”
And one may use gold bars in Saudi Arabia, and gold coins in any country that issues them.
“Try spending an East Caribbean Dollar at Shop Right”
If nj shop right wont take my gold eagle, then where is it local currency?
105 Essex…
Perhaps it is finally time to put aside the ‘intelligent leadership’ and go with scorched earth to motivate people into action.
Then again, I’m not sure what the definition of ‘intelligent leadership’ is from someone who would go straight to the cliche ‘fat jokes’ right away.
We’ll see how things turn out, but I’m liking the slash and burn I’m seeing and hearing. I only wish he’d do more or it.
@116 –
Okay, you head to Saudi Arabia. Have fun!
I’ll take the route to Rio. ;)
I Just called the Ray Catena dealer and spoke to Gino in sales. According to him they would accept gold eagles for a new 911 carrera 4s, a $95K car.
I doubt they will give you spot price for your gold not even talking about the 30% premium bugs are asking for.
118. I never claimed to be a Rhodes scholar dickhead.
Keep talking up gold……
FYI There is only 880 Billion in actual US coin and printed currency in circulation, and most if overseas since we are the reserve currency.
Stop worrying about your money. In today’s digital world of digital money all they have to do is hit the 0 a few times and hit the enter Key and whammo plenty of new money in circulation. Why just this week the European central bank virtualtized another 750 Billion Euros or 1 Trillion US by just hitting the enter key.
Debt monetization is the not the new BLACK, we have been doing it since Ronald Reagan was president and the value of a US Dollar today is about 1/2 of what it was back in 1985.
Running the printing presses for the next few years is what we will be doing worldwide. There is no way the governments of the world are going to cut spending.It is a coordinated race to the bottom for currencies in terms of reducing the value of of goods and services that can be bought and inflation will lead us out of this mountain of debt owed. It won’t be pretty if you are just parking your money in a CD so get out there and as Cramer would say BUY,BUY,BUY….
Gold is a good inflation hedge, and is still a hot topic of conversation these days…as they say in investing buy the rumor and sell the news.
Veto,
Approaching the gold debate in this manner while perhaps entertaining is a waste of time.
Note that ISO (International Organization for Standardization) defines a currency code for both gold and silver per ISO 4217.
the gold ISO code is 959 and silver is 961.
The other point which trips up these fun little debates is that gold and silver have intrinsic value as determined by the commodities market while fiat paper is intrinsically worthless.
The international markets accept gold and silver as currency regardless of whether a local entity does or does not.
Most currencies are ultimatly local and i would suggest that in the end a currency is defined by the market. If the market accepts a currency then it is one, other wise it’s not.
http://www.iso.org/iso/support/currency_codes_list-1.htm
I don’t think the gold we’re talking about here is ever meant to be used for buying groceries at Wegmans or Porsches at Ray Catena.
The Gold Eagles you’re holding are meant as a store of value, when the price fluctuates in the inverse direction of paper money.
It’s also meant to buy safe passage for you & your family if the feces really hits the fan.
You don’t hand your Eagles to the clerk at Wegmans nor do you sell them on ebay. You develop a good relationship to one of the reputable brokers mentioned yesterday, and work it that way.
Hyde, i enjoy these discussions and dont consider them a waste of time.
Your points about intrinsic worth and legal tender is a good one. And very relevant.
I was hoping someone would introduce those important terms at some point. Unfortunately nobody ever did.
Instead, i got a bunch of lip service about how gold is a currency because it goes up in price.
Thus, the never-ending circular conversation finally yielded some decent results.
Now ask yourself. If its got commodity worth but subject to legal worth, what are the problems with it being a so-called currency?
#112 250k
I’m also thinking along those lines. Towns with good schools surrounded by other towns like that and you can commute to NY Penn Station or WTC under an hour seem to have lots of activity and bidding wars for houses listed at 2004 or lower prices in good locations. Houses in same towns in bad locations seem to rot, even at 2004 prices.
Prices in Basking Ridge and Warren in Somerset County still seem to be dropping though. I think that’s because people moving from NYC, Brooklyn, and the Gold Coast to the burbs don’t want to look that far away from the city and prefer Brigadoon, Glen Ridge, Madison, etc.
And besides, to paraphrase the Chinese developer I posted earlier, if you can’t afford Bergen county, move back to Des Moines.
121 Essex…
No, nor would you be confused with one.
re: #124 Fiddy exactly right.
My suburban neighbors growing up were Vietnam boat people who escaped NAM via a small boat and hid their wealth from the smugglers by swallowing their gold stuffed inside bananas.
Yes safe, I’d wager if the prices are up, the volume is down A. And B, those numbers probably exclude distress sales which make up a sizable number of total sales.
Veto
Now ask yourself. If its got commodity worth but subject to legal worth, what are the problems with it being a so-called currency?
Hence why we went off the gold standard. You cant play monetistic (???) games with a currency that intrinsic value determined by the commodities market. All of the fun little games modern cental banks and governments like to play cant be done or will blow up in your face with an intrinsically valuable currency.
The ctach of course is just like blow or meth, once you get hooked on the juice (i.e fiat) you constantly have to use more to get the same kick. In theory its workable for a fiscally restrained government/nation, but in the real world the odds are for a one way ticket off the cliff. The only variable is hoe long it takes, 20 yrs or 200.
re: #130 Hyde – don’t forget about growth. The US is going to allow another 100 million in this country over the next few decades. That is allot of new housing units and Walmart shoppers.
re: 106 –
These sellers wouldn’t have been able to come up w/ 2 more months worth of payments. Turned down for loan mod since they haven’t been late as yet. Been unemployed since Nov. Most likely headed to PA unless something worthwhile comes up elsewhere.
104 Pain – I don’t have enough vacation time to go and watch this year’s Montclair appeals. There are 1,225 of them. That’s probably about 30 days of hearings in East Orange.
Last night at the town council meeting they devoted about 1 1/2 hours of public time to the issues with the Montclair Animal Shelter. They spent 5 minutes of public time talking about “the budget”. The council then went into immediate executive session to discuss some “cost savings proposals” that would be discussed with our municipal unions including police and fire today. Now that Fat Man is publicly proposing a permanent 2.5% cap on municipal salary increases, I am guessing the unions will budge on absolutely nothing since they will realize they will never “make up” any potential concessions this year.
Oh and next month we will formally be asking Fat Man to approve a waiver of the municipal levy cap for us. We have no idea how much of a waiver we will need yet, but we do know we will need something. Our most rational councilor reminded the rest of the crew that the state has threatened to reduce us a dollar in state aid for each dollar over cap we go. This was pretty much met by blank stares from 3 of the other 5 councilors who maintained that the state will clearly see “we did everything we could”. Our mayor was absent because he is off on his economic mission to China, drumming up new business opportunities for our fair city.
I can’t wait for Fat Man to make Montclair the very public poster child for reckless and out of control municipal spending next month.
Wow…
Shiny is at an all time high and everywhere I go people are telling me I should own some gold.
It feels like RE back in 2000.
Can’t wait until we start the NJSHINYREPORT.
Roubini on wnyc radio now. Fascinating.
250K,
Inventory is building. Prime communities in Bergen County are filled with overpriced listings and sales are sporadic at best. Only people that appear to be buying are those with exceptionally compelling reasons.
A 2% gain in median sale price during a period of enormous artificial stimulation in the real estate market is reason to fear. If you view this as strength and stabilization, you see something I don’t.
make, yep.
everyone knows about gold and its a cant lose investment.
sounds like its a great time to get in on this bubble.
‘gold is cuurency’ is the new ‘a home is an investment’
Alabama political attack ad accuses candidate of believing in evolution.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0510/Alabama_candidate_denounces_lie_that_he_believes_in_evolution.html
#137
“You can always refinance” has been replaced with “gold is a currency”.
Chemical Bank, Manufacturers Hanover, Seasman’s Bank for Savings, Chase Manhattan, JPMorgan, BankOne, Bear Stearns, and Washington Mutual are now included in JPMorgan Chase.
This is how you become too big to fail.
137.
“When central banks are printing money it has the tendency to create asset bubbles. Gold is the ultimate asset bubble.”
George Soros (prior to establishing a hundreds of millions of dollars position in both bullion, ETF’s, and mining stocks.)
Dont bet against the horsemen.
My husband just heard on bloomberg radio that Federal aid is coming to states, they can use the money to funnel to underwater home owners and help them write down their mortgages- anyone else hear this? not that they aren’t doing right in front of our eyes…but to hear that outright, hum.
Al, im calling bubble in gold in this blog so that i can manipulate the market to buy more.
just like soros.
By the way, i notice that gold runs up in long rallies over several weeks so i bought a monster position this morning.
I put a tight stop loss under it though. I dont like holding onto losers and i dont want to be holding the bag if the bubble pops early.
@142 – see 99.
The fact that im jumping in on gold is a sure sign that its is a monster bubble.
Shore (71)
Thanks for the post. Brought back horrible memories of my youth grewing up in Newburgh. Nothing like the beauty of the Hudson Valley with a little of the South Bronx in your backyard. Every person I grew up with moved out of that dump. The only thing to that will turn that town around is 10 maga tons.
I love Newburgh, I buy my cars at the auto auction up there!!! Great deals.
Escape from NJ says:
May 12, 2010 at 12:41 pm
Shore (71)
Thanks for the post. Brought back horrible memories of my youth grewing up in Newburgh. Nothing like the beauty of the Hudson Valley with a little of the South Bronx in your backyard. Every person I grew up with moved out of that dump. The only thing to that will turn that town around is 10 maga tons.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/12/news/economy/taxpayer_mortgages/index.htm
@130, Hyde –
“Hence why we went off the gold standard. You cant play monetistic (???) games with a currency that intrinsic value determined by the commodities market.”
Good point, *if* you have a verifiable way of confirming the existence of the backing asset – and an ongoing way of doing so.
However, a look at the paper gold market will reveal that it’s no different from fiat currency, other than the fact that you cannot buy anything with it. Should be lots of fun when everyone tries to redeem those worthless pieces of paper at once – akin to a bank run.
Gator
133 I don’t know how you and Stu continue to live in that bastion of intellectualism.
138 – I submit exibit number 456 why I can never leave the Northeast
Alabama political attack ad accuses candidate of believing in evolution.
Who cares, as long they believe in cutting my taxes, I am fine.
no more subprime…..
Senate OKs banning mortgage steering payments
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/senate-oks-banning-mortgage-steering-payments-2010-05-12
fun math
If we assume that each of goldmans trading days was a 50/50 chance of loss/profit (i.e. a coin toss) and that there were about 60 days in the first quarter, the odds of them making a profit on every single day are 8.67 x 10^-19
consider that all 4 of the big banks did this 1st quarter and the odds in terms of pure chance are 5.65 x 10-73
For comparison there are about 10^21 stars in the entire observable universe.
Besides fun with math, and acknowledging that the banks profit/loss probability is only partially chance, with some portion being made up of income from spreads, it does point out the absurdity of the current financial game.
Meter
agreed, that is just another example of the corruption and graft that has infected our banking system and society. There are rules in place that should prevent that but they are not enforced.
hyde
good to know. deeper knowledge than most of us here.
Hyde – Change the base assumption to the following and recompute for the new normal:
If we assume that each of goldmans trading days was a 100% chance of
[145] veto
“The fact that im jumping in on gold is a sure sign that its is a monster bubble.”
Time to tighten my stops
Poor guy
Not really, those damn highschool students just leave thier text books lying around.
For another fun comparison, remember any chemistry? Avogadro’s Number is 6.02*10^23. that is there are 6.02*10^23 molecules of a standard gas in a 1 liter container when its at 1 atm an 0 deg C (STP).
The mid range estimate for the number of stars in the observable universe is 10^23 (10^21 is the lower range estimate).
So the number of molecules in a 1 liter container at STP is about the same number as the number of stars in the universe
/geek off
boken 156
the answer is 1. they really are doing gods work after all!
“Time to tighten my stops”
nom, i will kill any rally guaranteed with the purchase of just one share.
The 17 year old that opened fire on a carnival in Bloomfield last week and was subsequently wounded by the Bloomfield police died of his wounds yesterday.
Facebook tribute page is up and Baristanet has reported on it. Have at it.
“its crazy how the one we love life got tookin but tears cant and wont bring him back we just got to live him on !”
http://www.baristanet.com/2010/05/rasheed_cherry_facebook_page.php
149 meter
Reminds me of what I read this morning –
“How to Buy Record-High Gold”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/How-to-Buy-RecordHigh-tsmf-2244973661.html
This paragraph stands out:
“If you want the opportunity of redeeming your shares for gold, another option is Sprott Physical Gold Trust ETV, which launched in February. This closed-end mutual fund gives investors the option of trading in their shares for 400-ounce gold bars. The fund can trade at a premium or discount to its net asset value at any time and has higher fees, making it more expensive to invest in. An investor can obtain physical gold on the 15th of every month, although the holder has to make transportation and storage arrangements.”
159 Mr Hyde
The answer is 42,
and Goldman was using the infinite improbability drive.
just hear a talking head say that he’s portfolio contains 5% shiny and he’s pumping his chest saying he was right bout investing in shiny and that every portfolio should have shiny exposure.
If he’s an expert then what do you call someone who went all in (98%) concetration on Shiny back in early 06?
Answer: GOLD BUG.
“he’s portfolio contains 5% shiny and he’s pumping his chest saying he was right bout investing in shiny”
lol. yes this is a good sign that the bubble is boiling up to a hot tempterature but i wont be assured of its top until we are able to walk into starbucks and overhear conversations among 20 year old FIT students who are keenly aware of the benefits of investing in precious.
When i see one of those characters take the i-tunes out of their ear claiming to their friend that ‘precious is the only real currency and has been for 5,000 years.’ thats when i will come back here screaming SELL PRECIOUS!! at the top of my lungs.
[164] make
Decades ago, I got burned on shiny. So I could never be a gold bug.
But I did buy in. I don’t have much, but I am damn glad I do. Have taken profits, and am now sad that I did, but at least they were profits.
Great furthering the geekatude of this blog we now have additional phrases from Douglas Adam’s seminal work.
not like it doesn’t get quoated here a lot anyway
Does anyone have feedback on self-directed IRA cusodians? Does anyone have “checkbook control” structure?
No fat fingers, but this guy will be in for a proctological exam:
“Regulators examining the causes of the brief stock market free fall last Thursday are looking closely at heavy selling in the market for stock-index futures by a single trader, beginning 10 minutes before stock prices began to plummet.
Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said at a Congressional hearing on Tuesday that during that crucial time period, the futures trader, whom he would not identify, accounted for about 9 percent of trading volume in the most actively traded stock-index derivative contract, known as the 500 e-mini futures contract. . . .”
thanks meter
A single trader at 9% of the volume?
That guy is either incredibly prescient, or he had insider info.
was that trader trading from a computer in beijing?
real estate in my town did not collapse.
prices came down 15-20% from peak.
but the sales volume has fallen off a cliff. I guess it means that there are no sellers when market price is discounted by 30%.
i wasnt prepared for this scenario.
Just two days ago they said it was one trade by Universa, a hedge fund advised by Nassim Taleb, author of “Black Swan” that caused the cascade.
“Shortly after 2:15 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday, hedge fund Universa Investments LP placed a big bet in the Chicago options trading pits that stocks would continue their sharp declines.
On any other day, this $7.5 million trade for 50,000 options contracts might have briefly hurt stock prices, though not caused much of a ripple. But coming on a day when all varieties of financial markets were deeply unsettled, the trade may have played a key role in the stock-market collapse just 20 minutes later.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704879704575236771699461084.html
With all the gold talk today, I felt I should repost this during hours when most of us are awake and reasonably coherent.
“It is the opinion of the Secretary of the Treasury that Public Law 93-373 did not repeal or alter the so-called Gold Clause Resolution of 1933 (31 U.S.C. 463). The Resolution prohibits any contractual provision which purports to give the obligee the option of requiring payment of the obligation in money or a specified amount of gold.”
So you can’t insist that you get paid in gold.
relo (168)-
Equity Trust Company (www.trustetc.com).
Like them.
AS soon as the doorman starts talking about GOLD I am selling mine.
Gator (161)-
Planting this guy is the equivalent of taking out the trash. Good riddance.
nom 175
It doesnt prohibit silver or platinum. Not the same as gold but can fill the same role in most cases
And what about the Act of October 28, 1977, Pub.L. 95-147, § 4(c), [31 U.S.C. § 5118(d)(2))]
http://www.ca6.uscourts.gov/opinions.pdf/08a0322p-06.pdf
Nom
…Act of Oct. 28, 1977, Pub. L. No. 95-147, § 4(c), 91 Stat. 1227, 1229 (originally codified at 31 U.S.C. § 463 note, recodified as amended at 31 U.S.C. § 5118(d)(2)) amended the 1933 Joint Resolution and made it clear that parties could again include so-called gold clauses in contracts formed after 1977…
any comments?
173
People are prepared to wait for the sherriff or to live in a house they don’t want to live before they will let bottom feeders “steal” their house.
The definition of steal is paying anything below peak.
renter that sounds about right.
AS soon as the doorman starts talking about GOLD I am selling mine.
You actually should wait until he buys some. The time between talking and buying is usually 2 years.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsyKrY2h3q0
this is some cool stuff if true..
[180] hyde
Yes, the FDIC had better amend their website.
renter (181)-
Apply this same delusional, self-destructo mentality across a whole range of financial decisions, and you pretty much see how our whole house-of-cards economy is about to implode.
Make – I will be already out of the exit well in advance of the stampede.
Everyone was talking gold right before Christmas and as 2009 ended gold futures topped out at $1,230 per ounce. But after a fast start to 2010, the price dipped back to $1,045.
$2.3 billion poured into gold in the last week. Trimtabs reports that $2.3 bln has flowed into gold ETFs in the last 6 trading days, the highest in a year.
Looks like every doctor, dentist and accountant is on board now.
Gold is consolidating gains at $1247 essentially a record high.
If I hear any waiter, doorman, or even a cabbie talking gold I am out.
Juice, if the cabbie or waiter is licensed series 7 its probably ok to hold the position a little while longer.
Juice,
I hear you but talking from experience from RE bubble, I’ve heard people talk about RE in 2002 and it didn’t stop for another 4 years.
You have to actually wait until people who brag about how much money they made with shiny and then the second pool of people get in then you bail.
We’re only in the second inning here.
I went to the Town Hall to pay my property taxes. I had just gotten my new appraisal that dropped the assessed value by more than 10%, so I commented to the clerk that I imagine the tax rate will be raised quite a bit for next year.
She said, “I’m so glad you’re informed because most people coming in here are saying that they’re glad their taxes will be going way down next year because of the new assessment, boy will they be surprised when they get they open their bill.”
get in when your mil mentions it, get out when the cabbie claims its currency.
Anything that hits the market in my area priced at 2003/4 that is in good shape and in a good location gets multiple bids. Almost everything else sits.
I’ve also noticed a lack of new inventory the last 2 to 3 weeks. Lack of supply could keep prices from dropping even more if there are multiple people willing to pay 2003/4 prices.
when your retarded bil claims its been a currency for 5,000 years and its going to $5k, go all in short.
Veto, you’re cracking me up.
just looked on Zillow in one of my “towns” (its in the philly suburbs) and there are so many properties up. Recent sales indicate that most are asking 30% over what they are selling for but with so much up, there may be some takers. Still, housing stock is so-so, out of all of it I’d probably only be interested in two properties.
meter, this board is the self proclaimed bubble police.
no bubble will sneak up on any of us.
Great, no-money-down mortages can continue. Think about the minorities and the poor!
“The Senate today rejected a proposal by Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., to impose a minimum 5% down payment for virtually all home mortgages. The amendment to the broader financial regulatory overhaul bill, which failed 42-57, would have required income verification and an assessment of borrowers’ ability to repay as well.
Corker’s proposal also would have stripped out a provision that required financial firms securitizing loans to keep a 5% portfolio risk.
Regarding Corker’s bill, Democrats argued that a 5% down payment would hurt minorities and the poor.”
http://blogs.investors.com/capitalhill/index.php/home/35-politicsinvesting/1752-democrats-reject-5-down-payment-rule
Veto
I have met cabbies who said they had a Series 7, mostly older dudes who washed out decades ago.
If after two years you have not found employment with a FINRA member firm, you will be required to rewrite your Series 7 examination. Fun times these days for the 1/4 million or so wash outs over the last few years now tending bar and driving cabs or playing the role of Mr. Mom.
Also FYI
Series 7 = Stocks & Bonds
Series 3 = Commodities & Futures
Safe,
Doesn’t look to me like Warren or Basking Ridge are down this year. Tailed off at the end of last year, but most list prices seem pretty hopeful this spring.
I just finally shut down all of my screening devices, after moving into my Bridgewater place and selling my Scotch Plains one.
Barb, just wait until Next Fall. thats when prices will really start to crash.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100512/ap_on_bi_ge/us_budget_deficit#mwpphu-container
Everyone is trying to figure out why is shiny up? Here’s is a good start.
We can’t even brake even in April?
Juice Box,
Seems like everyone listening to Limbaugh and friends are fully exposed to gold advertisements. We’ll know we’ve hit the seventh inning stretch when the gold advertisements on MSNBC push even the libs to buy gold.
I don’t have a big position though – I like assets that produce rather than store/protect wealth.
veto,
they are going to pay me to live there. I can’t wait.
“Series 3 = Commodities & Futures”
Juice, right. I guess i was thinking about the gld etf.
which would be covered by the 7, i would guess?
[197] jamil
Saw Corker speaking this morning, and he cut straight to the chase, essentially warning that we would be on the road to doom if we institutionalize moral hazard as he sees this bill doing.
I get the impression he is genuinely scared, and that he is quietly arranging canadian citizenship for his kids.
#189 – Make “second inning” sure we are due for Japanese style Lost Decade or two but that does not mean I cannot make money now.
If there is an overarching lesson from Japan’s Lost Decade, it is that half measures don’t pay and the latest crap coming out of Washington in the last two weeks on Financial Reform only affirms my belief that there is barely a man or woman with a spine down in DC. We are going to see wave after wave of stimulus and bailouts. Might as well as try and ride the wave and make some money now instead of waiting for Ragnarok and hiding in my basement with a revolver and a couple of gallons of tepid water.
Juice, you should.
I find it hard to believe that the feds wont find a way to print and pump the dow up to 20k.
re #204 – Veto All the same my friend a listed fund that tracks the futures. Just remember the HFT Algos can create economic reality just like last Thursday. Those HTF Algos are locked and loaded are trigger happy and have their sights set on gold stocks and futures, with players like Soros and Paulson paying close attention. Just look at the Call/Puts on any of these stocks lots of activity. The machines will sell it way way down before you can ever get back from your lunch break or some death by powerpoint meeting.
Persistent trailing stop loss orders are important when the market goes crazy especially with the machines in control these days.
Don’t trust the machines.
176: Thanks.
Fiddy Cents: 96
Bank of NY Mellon, 1st. mortg.
BOA 2nd. Mellon has appraisal.
I’ve all intentions on getting an independent appraisal. I just think it’s odd, when a qualified buyer is willing to fork-up a significant down payment and the bank won’t share their toilet paper. Appreciate your thoughts.
“ok Ben, I enjoy the whole circular gold argument with everyone but the sole fact that you think that the past price performance of gold justifies anything at all – says a lot to prove my point.
If you did that in 2006 with home prices, you would be considered right. But still, everyone here would laugh at you for good reason.”
Take your sunglasses off. It’s not just past performance. It is the fundamentals behind the performance. Meanwhile, I suggest you look at the present performance. New all time high today. Like I said, are you really going to argue with the results? I was right when gold was at $600, I was right when it was at $800, I was right when it was at $1000, and I’m right today.
“You’re the one pumping gold.
I took issue with the gold drones suggesting that physical gold is highly liquid and can be transacted with low premiums. Neither are true.”
If I listed my gold for 20 cents under what Apmex is offering today on ebay, it will sell in under 15 minutes. Pretty liquid if you ask me.
They’re not making them like they used to.
Rome’s Colosseum crumbles.
http://media.smh.com.au/world/world-news/romes-colosseum-crumbles-1444330.html&exc_from=strap
A.West,
We’re looking at the sub 500k level and have seen a big drop since last year. Don’t follow the higher priced stuff.
213: Call the bank. See if it’s eligible for HAMP.
Is Jamil really a Republican Congressman from iowa?
http://gawker.com/5537336/the-congressman-who-is-eight-times-crazier-than-michele-bachmann
Trying to sum up a couple of comments above but I wonder if Goldman is selling covered calls or was selling puts in a rising market to record the gains. And who thinks they reversed the positions last week to screw things up from others following them? As for the Fed printing free money to get to Dow 20k, well that would probably inconvenience Goldman’s portfolio so I’d cross that out. After all, too many commoners would benefit from that too and we know Blankfein will have none of that.
You can have it both ways. Turn your Gold into Gold Bullets and your covered either scenario. Keep a few silver bullets in case any from Washington come calling.
Funny, I couldn’t find this on F0x News.
Laura Bush: pro abort1on and gay marriage
http://tinyurl.com/399vpel
What I don’t get is, if she is promoting a new book, she just pi$$ed off a big chunk of her target demographic.
Minor nitpick re… Avogadro’s Number:
“6.02*10^23 molecules of a standard gas in a 1 liter container when its at 1 atm an 0 deg C (STP).”
It is 1 mole, or about 22.4 liters — not 1 liter. Of course, when you are talking about odds at those numbers, a factor of 20 doesn’t change the picture by much.
Apologies if already posted . . .
“Housing Optimists Are “Not Paying Attention” to the Facts, Says Dean Baker
Among the crowded ranks of economists and market watchers, Dean Baker stands out. Baker presciently called the housing bubble when he published “The Run-up in Home Prices: Is It Real or Is It Another Bubble?” in 2002.
So does our guest Baker see the so-called housing recovery now? “No. I mean I think people that are saying that just aren’t paying attention to what’s in front of their eyes,” says Baker, an American economist and co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
“I think we’re going to see a big fall-off in purchases for the rest of 2010 and even into 2011,” Baker says. “So the idea that somehow the market is stable, that housing prices will rise anytime soon – it’s really hard to make a case for that.”
Baker lays out several reasons for his bearish case:
Programs that lifted the market, including the tax credit for first-time buyers, have expired.
The Federal Reserve is exiting the mortgage market, which will likely push rates to 5.5% to 6% by the end of the year.
There’s still an inventory glut and rental rates are falling in many markets, notes Baker, author of “False Profits: Recovering from the Bubble Economy.” He says the rental market doesn’t lie.
Naturally the housing bulls disagree. Hedge-fund manager John Paulson, for example, said housing prices in hard-hit California will begin to rise this year, setting the stage for a wider recovery, as the FT reports.
So what are the chances of, say, another tax credit or purchase of mortgage-backed securities? “I think they’d be reluctant to do that because of the signal it would send,” Baker says in the accompanying clip. “I mean it would send this unambiguous signal things really are bad, worse than had been advertised.”
“The Endgame has begun and this is basically to print money and you will print more and more money and eventually it will be reflected in the loss of purchasing power of paper money , as you know most Americans the medium household has not had any real wage or income increase for the ten twenty years and it is also reflected in the price of precious metals.”
Marc Faber 5/12/10
[216] gator,
The congressman may be crazy (according to the Gawker word counter), but any employment attorney will tell you that he isn’t factually incorrect (though I won’t speculate on what he believes the motives to be).
Years ago, in my banking days, I had a friend and co-worker who did something similar. We worked for an absolutely awful woman—no one could stand her and I suspect now she was bipolar. Anyway, this friend was gay and open, and he told me he was waiting for an opportunity to bring a harassment claim. One day, she made a crude remark (a minor one really), and he pounced. He whispered to me “that’s it, I’m doing it.” I thought it was too trivial a remark and I counseled against acting then and there, but he marched up to her and announced his intentions.
Needless to say, he was fired, but he eventually did settle (my guess was just shy of 100K). We lived in the same town and I saw him a lot, but he would not directly discuss the case due to the confidentiality agreement. Finally, after I left the bank, he said “man, I couldn’t say anything because of the agreement, but I was trying to give you hints that you should have done the same thing. You could have paid for law school.”
One of my other friends at the bank (also gay) did something similar, and wound up parlaying that into a promotion.
These guys were friends of mine, but I recall being discomfited at how they would game the system.
Years later, I had a client who was faced with a similar situation, and owing to what I observed from my friends, I was able to guide the client through and made the complainant go away, even though there was some pretty ugly pressure on our client to relent, to the point that a very well known advocacy group leaned on a partner here to lean on me.
Regardless of motivation, I can tell you that what the congressman described happens, and it happens a lot. I guess Gawker would call me crazy too.
Nom, it must be tough to work in a law firm (or place with lots of lawyers).
Everyone of them is thinking about their huge law school loans, angling to sue each other all day long.
Eventually they find good reason i guess.
@223, Nom –
Whatever his justifications, Republican gay-bashers have a growing track record of being about the most homosexually deviant specimens imaginable.
Just saying: if recent history is any guide, don’t be shocked if this guy’s eventually caught in a town car with a male companion and his slacks around his ankles.
re #225 meter – Larry Craig really did have just a wide stance.
Federal judge blocks Gov. David Paterson from imposing furloughs on 100,000 state workers
http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2010/05/12/2010-05-12_federal_judge_blocks_gov_david_paterson_from_imposing_furloughs_on_100000_state_.html
This is a good view of what we are looking at in NJ. CC has all these great ideas on clawing money back from the state workers and pensions to balance the budget and address the deficit. When he came out with the notion of trying to claw back the 9% from the pensions payments to plug 3 billion of the budget, I said that it is all well and good, but if he can’t get it through the court challenges, it will just dig a bigger hole when he has to pay back the balances.
He has lost the union contributions case, his big first day signing flourish. Wallce/Patterson does him no favors with the judiciary, and the docket is filling up with lawsuits the taxpayers have to fund to fight and he’ll probably lose.
As we head for a Gvmt shutdown I think that politically CC is punching above his weight. He came out at the bell swinging and just found Iron Mike standing in the middle. It will not end well, but it may end shortly.
Anyone got a spread on how many parts of CC’s 33 part toolkit make it through the other two branches.
Christie has been a public employee his whole life.
Meter 225 – you mean like this guy?
Anti-g*y rights activist resigns after trip with male escort
The anti-g*y rights activist who recently toured Europe with a male escort has resigned from a group that promotes counseling for people who “struggle with unwanted homos*xuality,” though the man insists that he is not g*y.
George Rekers resigned from the National Association for Research & Therapy of Homos*xuality, of which he was an officer, the group’s website said Tuesday.
“I am immediately resigning my membership in NARTH to allow myself the time necessary to fight the false media reports that have been made against me,” Rekers said in a statement posted on the group’s website. “With the assistance of a defamation attorney, I will fight these false reports because I have not engaged in any homos*xual behavior whatsoever.
“I am not g*y and never have been,” the statement said.
The association accepted the resignation, saying on its website Tuesday that it “would hope that the legal process will sufficiently clarify the questions that have arisen in this unfortunate situation.”
The group has scrubbed Rekers’ writings from its site, with a page that formerly featured his work now bearing the message, “Sorry, you’ve reached a page that doesn’t exist.”
http://m.cnn.com/primary/_YOIRs0-iNcabfuMFk7
Sastry
good catch, thanks. Not sure how I swapped 1 liter for 22…..
227.
If the fat man cant get it done I guarantee you the IMF can. Dont bet against the horsemen.
veto that – lawrence yun ‘the panda’, ‘next fall’ says:
May 12, 2010 at 2:40 pm
real estate in my town did not collapse.
prices came down 15-20% from peak.
but the sales volume has fallen off a cliff. I guess it means that there are no sellers when market price is discounted by 30%.
i wasnt prepared for this scenario.
The sellers may not want to let their ‘precious’ go for 30% off peak, but their bank usually has a vote in that discussion. All of which makes stealing money from me and my kids to prop up the banks so they don’t kind the stupid deadbeats out of MY house all the more galling.
I’m going to enjoy picking the baby boom generation’s nursing home for them.
“In the concluding remarks by Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund he stated “Finally, in principle, a new global currency issued by a global central bank, with robust governance and institutional features, could provide a nominal anchor and risk-free asset for the system independent of national currencies. This global central bank could also serve as a lender of last resort.”
Lol. Better cozy on up to the creatures within the UN because they will be our new masters.
wrongo dumbass…and here is how you do it…
Final Doom says:
May 12, 2010 at 10:19 am
No one will be spared. No one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=px4dEC0ucuM
228.Essex says:
May 12, 2010 at 8:52 pm
Christie has been a public employee his whole life.
So, he’s like a Teacher?
Anon E. Moose says: (re:232)
I’m going to enjoy picking the baby boom generation’s nursing home for them.
hey moose and I look forward to the day they pull the plug on your respirator.
235. He has taught a lot of people a valuable lesson or two.
Safe,
Seems like the $750,000+ segment is driven by bonuses, often Wall St, while the under $500,000 segment is driven by actual affordability.
What I have noticed so far is that there hasn’t been any house listed in Basking Ridge or Warren comparable to the one I got for less than $1.1mn
On the other hand, I just saw in the paper some really pretty houses further west in NJ that have dropped pretty far.
Anyway, no reason for me to pay much attention to NJ real estate. This has to be the last house I ever own in NJ. Only question is how long I stay (and how much I lose when I finally get out).
I call bullsit
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/20100512/ts_ynews/ynews_ts2018
Yes getting close to selling.
ATM cash for gold.
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?cl=19810728
The one thing to beware is the idiots thinking that life out West is better. Sadly, it’s much MUCH worse. Having lived in California for a decade, moving back to the Northeast—even if it was that shithole of Jersey—was a giant relief.
Can I send my kids to schools in Cali? No. Could I have a nanny who was a white, certified schoolteacher who was in graduate school and was so horrified by what she saw in the schools thanks to the tax caps (btw her mom was a schoolteacher) that she went back to graduate school? Oh yes. Could I drive on the roads? Just barely. The city of LA estimated that over $1,500 of damage is done to every car in the city by the crappy roads every year. People talk about the state of roads in Jersey and I take them by the shoulders and shake them before pounding their heads into the wall and screaming “YOU MORON, TRY CALIFORNIA!”
This state is horribly corrupt, but if you kept the corruption and then starved any kind of services that you actually need (schools, roads, what else is there? oh, the cops? forget about them), then you’d have Cali.
Oh, would you also like a massive dose of Mexicans brought in by the lunatic Right which needs someone to do their landscaping and take care of their children (n.b. I had an American nanny that we paid taxes for)? Oh ya, that’s right, open up the floodgates momma cause I need more Mexicans.
Add nightmarish waits in traffic on the “freeway.” Want to get from Santa Monica to downtown LA on Friday afternoon? Frankly, I recommend you leave at 3 to get there by 6. It’s quite far away, some 15 miles after all. You’ll make it, if you’re lucky.
That’s California. Oh, and expect about 1/4 the house you have in Jersey for the money. You want overpriced? How about 800 square feet of bungalow in a neighborhood next to the freeway with a shit-ass school you wouldn’t send you Mexican nanny’s kids to? How does that sound? $850,000? Ok, then. You win my friend, you win.
Ah, California.
Cretins.
Blow the mf’er up, and start over. It’s all broken beyond repair.
last!
How white will my teeth get after 1 treatment?
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The report, which includes data for Lehigh, Northampton and Carbon counties in Pennsylvania and Warren County, N.J., said home values slipped 2.1 percent year-over-year to $190,600. The Zillow Home Value Index estimates the value of all homes, not just those sold in a given period.
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