From the Star Ledger:
After tax-credit expiration; NJ pending home sales dip
Pending sales of New Jersey homes dropped by the greatest margin since February 2009 — when the U.S. economy shed more than 726,000 jobs, according to an East Bruswick-based appraisal firm.
Jeffrey Otteau, president of the Otteau Valuation Group, said about a fourth fewer buyers signed contracts for real estate in the state last month compared to a year ago.
“We had a full year of improvement in housing, so that means that today’s buyers, (potential homeowners) can’t get the same deals they could get six months ago,” Otteau said. “What buyers are saying is that the economy isn’t good enough for me to go forward without a tax credit.”
Rats, wanted to be First so bad !!! Although my REAL request is .. does anyone know of Senior 55+ rentals that are REASONABLE in Central/North Jersey.
From the WSJ:
May Home-Buying Activity Looks Worse Than Expected
How will housing sales fare without the benefit of big tax breaks for home buyers? The early indications are that sales are down very sharply in recent weeks, worse than most brokers and analysts expected.
Of course, economists and real estate analysts expected home sales to slow after the tax credit, of as much as $8,000, expired at the end of April. But early data from real estate brokers indicate that the sales declined as much as 25% to 30 from the year-earlier levels in some markets.
Without the tax bait, “consumers just don’t have that same sense they have to move quickly,” said Patrick Lashinsky, CEO of ZipRealty Inc., a big brokerage firm.
The May slump is ominous, but it’s too early to tell whether it portends another serious downward lurch in a market that has generally been leveling off over the past year.
Despite the recent drop in mortgage rates to less than 5%, applications for home-purchase mortgages have fallen in each of the last four weeks. In late May they were down nearly 40% from a month before, reaching their lowest level in 13 years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
From the WSJ:
Drop in Home Sales in Wake of Tax Credit Tops Forecasts
The withdrawal of federal tax credits for home buyers led to a steeper-than-expected plunge in May home sales in much of the U.S., as the housing market struggles to wean itself from government support.
Economists and real estate analysts expected home sales to slow after the tax credit, of as much as $8,000, expired at the end of April. But early data from real estate brokers indicate that the sales decline has been far more substantial than expected, with some markets showing declines of 25% to 30%.
“Anybody who wanted to buy a house probably did” before the tax credit deadline, said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association, a trade group.
…
Home-purchase contracts signed in New Jersey last month were down 25% from a year earlier, estimates Otteau Valuation Group, an appraisal firm in East Brunswick, N.J.
For all kinds of goods, including houses, “people are saying, ‘If it’s not a great deal, I’m not going to buy it,’ ” said Jeffrey Otteau, chief executive of the firm.
“What buyers are saying is that the economy isn’t good enough for me to go forward without a tax credit.”
It was a scam, Jeffey. Buyers, if you close on a house today, you immediately lost 10% of the selling price the moment the ink dries.
Rats, wanted to be First so bad !!
That can be arranged…
From the APP:
House where Philadelphia mob boss was whacked on sale
The Philadelphia house where mob boss Angelo Bruno was shot and killed 30 years ago is up for sale.
Bruno’s former South Philadelphia row house is on the market for $250,000. His daughter, Jean, says she’s planning to move to New Jersey.
Known as the “Gentle Don,” Bruno helped the Philadelphia mob rise in prominence during the 1960s and ’70s.
Bruno was killed by a shotgun blast to the head in March 1980 as he sat in a car in front of the three-bedroom house. His driver, John Stanfa, was also injured.
“What buyers are saying is that the economy isn’t good enough for me to go forward without a tax credit.”
They’re so dumb they are going to find out the economy is really so bad they shouldn’t have bought even with the tax credit.
“What buyers are saying is that the economy isn’t good enough for me to go forward without a tax credit.”
No different from the rest of Jersey…
Where’s my f*ckin’ handout?
The early indications are that sales are down very sharply in recent weeks, worse than most brokers and analysts expected.
And once again, this blog was light years ahead of the “analysts.” Why is it that the obvious eludes people?
grim,
We need some sort of GTG, it’s been a while.
Grim ….. U B the Bestest !!!
We need some sort of GTG, it’s been a while.
Agreed
grim,
thanks for the great blog!
Look on the bright side:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/Jobs%20Truth%20vs%20Fake.jpg
Roy-
Do you want to rent in a Seniors Only complex ??
Did you look into those Holiday City developments in Toms River ? Crossroads Realty is big down there.
Or how bout GreenBriar in Brick ?
http://www.businessinsider.com/15-states-where-foreclosures-are-still-surging-2010-5#new-jersey-11-up-since-march-2
You made #2 on this list for surging foreclosures…
I’d rather be laying dead on the corner of Bleecker Street and Macdougal Street than live in Toms River.
Looking for a house in englewood for a while but most of these sellers r still living in 2007. Big divergence. When r these sellers gonna wake up?
http://www.realtytrac.com/mapsearch/new%20jersey-foreclosures.html
The Realtytrac foreclosure map for NJ..
It sure seems to depend on the area…
Clot 14 LMAO
On the brighter side just laid off from my safety job. Clot now have whole summer free, head north my friend. I’ll be here.
Gary GTG needed for sure.
Gary- agreed,
The only people who didn’t expecÞ sales to fall are the people who need sales so stay up.
Funny how that works.
willwork –
Here is an interesting opinion of what is happening in the US beer market.
http://www.theatlantic.com/food/archive/2010/06/the-death-of-beer/57672/
Pretty soon Obamas going to be sitting in the Gulf strumming a guitar singing Roy Clark’s old song “Yesterday, when I was Young”.
[321][prior thread] relo
“Hopefully this timing will coincide with me being able to (with Nom’s help perhaps?) convince my employer of the benefits of a no/low personal income tax state of the sunny, beachy variety.”
Always happy to help, Relo, always happy to help.
Seems to me a Central NJ GTG is overdue. There have been northern and hoboken GTGs of late, and some out west I seem to recall.
What about on the RVL?
And I did promise to hold forth on tax policy and PPACA at the next one, so come armed with questions.
“In the final analysis, we were pissed but recognized the long-term strategig advantage of having Israel taie it to client states of the USSR.”
Per the USS Liberty incident. We could have still done that after we made them pay. I would have launched a retaliation attack or just threatened to withdraw any military aid to them. We could have let the Arabs walk over them and left them for dead. Instead we simply let them get away with killing our men. It’s a disgrace.
Pretty soon Obamas going to be sitting in the Gulf strumming a guitar singing Roy Clark’s old song “Yesterday, when I was Young”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEY4LxORCeo
The lyrics are what he’s starting to feel.
When r these sellers gonna wake up?
The better question is when are the buyers gonna wake up?
So we went to look at the new listing on Adams. It was definitely a Gary house. We now know why there are no inside pictures in the listing. Plus it’s open housing tomorrow. The house is $100,000 overpriced (without any bias). They didn’t mention the oil tank that has not been decommissioned (which was purposely hidden behind piles of crap in the basement). You can still smell the oil.
The best part of the tour was when our buying agent said she was so upset about the WSJ article Grim linked earlier. Of course, she feels it’s not as bad as the article states. Her best quote was, “Come on, 25 to 30% less than last April? Do you know how bad it was last April?”
We look forward to the impending second leg down. Even if it ends up being only 10%, it’s still $50,000. If we can nail the $15,000 tax credit on top of it, then huzzah.
This is like using bloodletting to cure a junkie
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/786776b4-7…44feabdc0.html
G20 drops support for fiscal stimulus
“Finance ministers from the world’s leading economies ripped up their support for fiscal stimulus on Saturday, recognising that financial market concerns over sovereign debt had forced a much greater focus on deficit reduction.”
“These words were in marked contrast to the G20’s previous communiqué from late April, which called for fiscal support to “be maintained until the recovery is firmly driven by the private sector and becomes more entrenched”.”
18.
Sellers are awake, but they are also BROKE. They are NOT going to come to closing with the 150k in hand to even up with the bank and even if they had it, they would WALK AWAY with that handy cash before giving it away. Wouldn’t you? You’ll be buying your house at an auction, not from a realtor/seller, and it will take forever and it will be a PITA.
The WSJ edition today is one of the best ever. It has about 10 great articles and stories. I will post a list later.
I’m thinking that any house within a realistic price range will be a handy man special, since it will have endured 2 plus years of squatting and abuse or vacancy before it gets into my hands.
Topics: detroit; scott adams on investing; noonan on non-perfect game; internet turning brains to mush; Turkish-U.S. citizen killed by Israel; Gen Y blood suckers.
20. *sorry* hang tough.
#23 Newbie
Death of Beer?
Inconceivable!!!
Seriously though, I agree with most of that article. The big brewers have been taking a hit while craft and niche brewers have been expanding. Not sure about their reasoning behind the overall dropoff in sales during the last decade but its one theory.
Oh well. Off to stimulate the US brewing industry…
Roy,
You moved to number 1.Congratulations!
“The Philadelphia house where mob boss Angelo Bruno was shot and killed 30 years ago is up for sale.”
Well, they blew up the Chicken Man in Philly last night.
Barb (32)-
Nah. There will be waves of short sales (just like what already happened in AZ, NV, FL), and the banks will streamline the process. I see it happening already.
And, yes, I do know that the Chicken Man was Phil Testa. It was just too good an opening.
Will Work,
Are you familiar with either St. Peters Cream Stout or Barney Flatts Oatmeal Stout? If so, what is your take on them?
First
Hii fiveee
Will work
guiness is one of the few beers I like. What would you suggest that might be similiar in nature. I know very little about beers
Death of Beer? Maybe the Death of crappy US Beer. I remember when I first started drinking. I couldn’t believe how people enjoyed drinking beer. Then, I started actually trying some good European brews. US Beers are incredibly mediocre. I have a friend from Bulgaria who told how each town had their own local brewery and if you ordered a beer from another town’s brewery, they would take you outside and beat you up. It just seems that the breweries in Europe take much more pride in their product. That being said, I love the brew at McSoreley’s in the city. If you want good US beer, you are probably only going to get it from a microbrewery.
Stu 30
the next leg down is likely to be 20+%
I followed up on fiddys request from last night and if you star the 1,3, and 5% curves at about 99 when the home price to income ratio was 3:1 (a historically stable level) then we ate still at the 5% curve. Nominal or real doesn’t matter, all that changes is the general shape of the curves, not their spatial relations.
The general trend appears to be that an average bottom is about midway between the 3% and 1% curves with a “worst case” being the bottom hitting at the 1% curve.
The current housing levels are still at the 5% curve based on the last time housing was at an “average” stable condition. If you start the curves from 1987, near the 80’s/90’s peak then we are still about 20% or so above the 3% curve.
The trends suggest we will enter the long slow slog at the bottom once we stein the range of the 1% or 2% curves.
The sellers still holding out are clueless are are no different then gamblers doubling down at blackjack when the deal just showed 21
the percentages above are estimates as I’m on my mobile and not near my home pc with the data
I apologize for my horrible typing. I swear I’m at least semi literate
Mike
sorry to hear about the layoff :(
Hyde,
Your findings are encouraging. The real question though, that needs answering for many of us here is in regards to the stubbornness of prices in particular train towns that seem to be maintaining their values better than their neighbors values. I am encouraged by the fact that many places in NJ saw sale prices drop between 30 and 40%, but that just ain’t the case for nonPOSes in Glen Ridge. Is it just delayed, or is real estate really local. Unlike Texas, prices went up just as rapidly in Glen Ridge as they did in Montclair, yet prices have dropped a lot more in Montclair than in Glen Ridge.
Looking at Realty Trac this morning, the foreclosure map is very telling. Although Glen Ridge is just as densely populated as Montclair, the number of homes with distressed owners is significantly less than that of Montclair. There’s truly a dramatic difference. My intuition tells me that it’s the school system there (#2 in the state) that attracts residents who are more likely to live within their means to some extent. Also, the median home price is a bit higher in Glen Ridge than in Montclair eliminating the subprime crowd. Although a lot of the preforclosures in Montclair are showing up in prime areas ($600-$800,000 range).
I think the CS reports in July and August will be very telling. Especially considering that they will still contain a few straggler closings that remained from the tax credit infused mini peak. We can be hopeful (for a change).
I tried a case of Kirkland Beer.It is 4 bottle each of different brews of ale and a German Lager.I actually enjoyed it.It was from a brewery in NY.
Stu
I could try to run a town level analysis of the same type. It should give you a rough idea. The question is, can I dig up the data I need for that.
Stu, or anyone else
is there a way to pull the data of data universe (app.com) besides copying and pasting from each age of records?
they have the data i need for a town level analysis but i need a realistic way to pull it down.
Stu,
i know you and gator keep some sales data. any you would be willing to share
Stu,
a very rough cursory analysis shows glen ridge being less bubbly then montclair
Stu,
You need to get to the level of granularity unfeasible for a relatively small place like Montclair before you get the actionable. E.g. for Montclair I would intuitively expect that tax incentive related sales hump was much lighter in Upper Montclair than in the city as a whole – and the current decline, as well. Whether there is enough sales to confirm this statistically, I don’t know. Maybe in some NYC zip codes you could get enough numbers, and extrapolate to similar income NJ places.
Grim
Interested in a joint venture sister webiste for town level analysis with regular updates?
I was at a meeting the other day and they were talking about generational attributes.
The topic came to generation Y. A person from human resources said that in all my career I havent seen anything like it. The parents call in for 20 something year old children to set up interviews and ask for promotions.
Mike, I should have a bit of time at the end of this month or July. Will be in touch.
Sorry to hear about the layoff. Now you have more time to bother your neighbors.
Mike- Forgot to add that a kid from Vernon HS ended up on my daughter’s club lacrosse team. Daughter thinks she is a lumberjack & has some hygiene issues but likes her because she can play. I gotta believe she’s the only girl in Sussex Co. who can play lacrosse.
I saw her the other day at practice. Swear I could hear Dueling Banjos playing in the distance. Looks like she could lift the front end of a tractor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_parent
Al “Fat Thumbery” Gore says:
June 5, 2010 at 3:20 pm
I was at a meeting the other day and they were talking about generational attributes.
The topic came to generation Y. A person from human resources said that in all my career I havent seen anything like it. The parents call in for 20 something year old children to set up interviews and ask for promotions.
re: #52 Hyde- to scrape the data from HTML web page tables use MS Excel.
Open Excel and select the Data Tab in the ribbon. Inside the data tab, click on the button “From Web” in the Get External Data section.
Add in the URL and select the table. The data will then import. It is easy to do.
I did a quick test on the APP data universe site and searched Montclair and all sales. Results were 17854 records. It seems they do not display the entire query result set only 10 records per page (Records 1 to 10 of 17854). You would need perform multiple imports.
You can automate it via formula since the URL string since this is a php web page they have a value “pageNum_Recordset1=”
Example:
pageNum_Recordset1=1 is records 1-10
pageNum_Recordset1=2 is records 11-20
You would have to run page number 1 though 1786 to get all of their data 17854 records.
Perhaps it would be easier to submit an OPRA request to the NJ State Dept of Treasury for the data? It is public and they will give it to you, this is the way the APP gets it too.
http://www.nj.gov/opra/
stu
it’s well known that areas perceived as the best locally, tend to bottom long after the worse areas around. it could be as long as two years. Occasionally the percent off will be lower too.
to assess the level of discount at Glen Risge you need to look at millburn, scarsdale, chatham, good areas in Brooklyn, and even manhattan. Montclair is uncomparable.
Also it is not that glen ridge residents are somehow smarter and can weather downturns. It’s just that values have not gone down enough. there is still demand as you can tell from this blog. when the market forces balance things out it will be really bad even for glen ridge. .
hyde
if you can reach town granularity we are all set
stu
thanks for the Adams report. i won’t bother–it seems very similar to the other recent offerings.
Can wii play gameboy games? I’m wanting to play pokemon green, red, blue and crystal version… Is there any wii or gamecube games like them??
worst case 1% is quite optimistic. the state we are now is exceptional. most of the states are broke, gov in debt and we just experienced the biggest re bubble in history. No reason notto undershoot significantly.
I think barb is right and even the doom is spot on. your next house will be a foreclosure through a simplified process, perhaps an internet auction. you heard that here first two years before it happened.
Juice,
Thanks. if i really want to go to town level a OPRA request probably makes the most sense
An interesting point i found…. If you look at the NJ state FHFA Home price index, homes prices have been increasing at about an average of 5-6% annually since 1975!!!!
This trend seems to be quite an anomaly! Perhaps NJ really is different. if its not then its facing one hell of a drop!!! I cant say either way based on the small amount of comparative data i have looked at yet
Poor Guy,
A handful of places are fairly stable, such as dallas. many urban centers are still way overheated when you consider their economic outlook and will indeed continue to fall. Places like detoit are dead. They will not remain cities but become skeletal urban centers at best, picked clean by those left behind.
Heck, large sections of detroit are being reclaimed by nature already.
http://www.examiner.com/x-2027-National-Housing-Examiner~y2009m2d21-Nature-begins-to-eerily-reclaim-the-abandoned-neighborhoods-of-Detroit
To put things into perspective, in order for the NJ market per FHFA HPI to reach the 3% trend assuming there had been an average of 3% annual home price growth since 1975, we would have to see a net drop of 67% from peak prices. That 67% drop would put us at the 3% growth curve calculate forward starting in 1975
I will have to look at other states to see how they look in similar terms
poor 66
I got the 1% trend as a bottom by looking how most CS indexes performed in the 80’s/90’s bubble. A large portion of the cities in the index at that point bottomed between the 1% and 2% trends.
buy beer?
I do not understand this concept. Please explain.
Had the pleasure of walking to tire store approximately 2 miles from my house with a 40 lb kid on my back. Good prep. for possible bug out scenarios. exhausting in this heat.
Got to keg the octoberfest tonight. (actually have to tranfer to a keg to lager for 2 months)
So, what is lagering? Also, how does one malt barley?
hyde 70
your are right. we should expect inflation ~3% no more no less. and 1-2% as an overshoot but the present situation is kind of peculiar in the sense of globalization. too many factors contributing to trends that the gov/fed cannot control. i cannot see how this economy can jumpstart, everyone hopes wall street can, and a prolonged recession will further depress re markets-a japan scenario seems now the best case. boomers have to pay somehow.
lager comes from the german word “to store”( i believe). Lager beers ferment at a lower temperature than ales, so they need a long conditioning period (1-2 months or longer) at temperatures between 45-34 deg. F. The Yeast generally finishes fermenting and gets rid of any sulfur compounds present in the beer.
Malting of barley involves moistening the barley and letting it rest a certain temperature so that the barley germinates to a certain point. The maltster than raises the temperature to end the germination. After barley has been malted, it can be mashed to convert the starches in the grain to sugars. The yeast eat the sugars and produce alcohol.
I have not tried to malt barley. If I ever buy a house, I will attempt to grow some barley so that I can malt it.
Nom knows law, I know beer and a wee bit of law.
now I am thirsty.
Buddle scored 2 and Gomez 1 vs. Australia today.
Is there hope for our 11?
With personal debt so high, wages flat the last 40 years, and a slew of good jobs abandonening these shores in recent years, and government deep in the hole and requiring more from taxpayers, just where does the economy get the increased speing to “recover”?
I suppose as the oldest generation dies, the kids and grandkids can squander their accumulated assets but that only goes so far, and, with respect to housing, opens up more assets that people are in no position to buy because of their debt loads.
My god, I must learn to proof read. I know this is not work product, but my God!
Morph don’t be so hard on yourself. you’re not at work
Grim – you’ve got mail
sl
Morph,
Better watch out, you might lose CLEs.
no loss of CLEs for lack of proof reading. I have seen it enough in filings by my adversaries.
Indeed. It drives me nuts. First, spell check. Second, don’t accept every suggested change as spell check only goes so far. I have been thinking it would bee good to be able to taser attorneys who file poorly-written motions, etc.
I love the cut-and-paste jobs where they forget to change the names, dates, and circumstances.
Poor et al,
I looked at a few of the FHFA MSA’a (Metro Statistical Area)from the philadelphia to nyc to dallas etc. Most of them show long term growth, from the mid 70’s to present, that is in the 5-7% range. Dallas has hung at about 3% growth rate since the 70’s.
These trends would seem to go against conventional wisdom. The high growth rates do not appear to be isolated to a few markets.
Could US families moving to 2 incomes have played a part? Anyone have any thoughts?
NJ RE market on fire again.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/realestate/06njzo.html?ref=realestate
Take a look at these state trends:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/32587459/1q10hpi-sts
any thoughts?
Perfect picture to describe a union member.
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2010/06/06/us/UNION.html
#42 Shore
Sadly, I’ve never tasted them. But they’re now on my short list. I’ll let you know.
Are you familiar with either St. Peters Cream Stout or Barney Flatts Oatmeal Stout? If so, what is your take on them?
Will Work,
Please do. The latter one, someone once described to me as the best beer brewed. I am interested in a second opinion.
http://cnnmoney.mobi/money/latest_news/latest_news/detail/215768;.money3b
Legal issues of the BP spew.
frank says:
June 5, 2010 at 9:52 pm
Perfect picture to describe a union member.
futer….perfect example of someone who requires group medical benefits, because there is no fcuking way that slob survives an underwriting process….
#45 Hyde
Guinness is pretty much the gold standard for Irish dry stout. Beamish and Murphy’s are similar, but not as good, IMHO. North Coast’s Old Rasputin and Victory’s Storm King are take-no-prisoners Imperial Stouts. At 9-10% they will rock your world. But I have to say I love them in the winter time. Samuel Smith’s Oatmeal Stout is a nice example of the oatmeal style.
If you want to try to branch out from the stouts, maybe you should try a porter. Porter is an old style that is similar in some ways to stout. Samuel Smith’s Taddy Porter is a nice example of the style. A number of microbreweries have taken up brewing porters as well.
guiness is one of the few beers I like. What would you suggest that might be similiar in nature. I know very little about beers
#89 Shore
The best beer brewed? Period? Wow.
It just moved up to number one with a bullet. I think I know where I can get some. If I’m right, you’ll have your answer within the next few days.
clot…for you
“STOP TRYING TO MAKE ME LOVE YOU! MUST…THINK…OF DEAD BIRDS TO MAINTAIN ANGER”
“…CEOs are highly skilled in a special form of lying called leadership.”
“Let’s talk about morality. Can you justify owning stock in companies that are treating the Earth like a prison pillow with a crayon face?”
WSJ
ESSAY
JUNE 5, 2010
Betting on the Bad Guys
Cartoonist Scott Adams’s personal road to riches: Put your money on the companies that you hate the most.
By SCOTT ADAMS
When I heard that BP was destroying a big portion of Earth, with no serious discussion of cutting their dividend, I had two thoughts: 1) I hate them, and 2) This would be an excellent time to buy their stock. And so I did. Although I should have waited a week.
People ask me how it feels to take the side of moral bankruptcy. Answer: Pretty good! Thanks for asking. How’s it feel to be a disgruntled victim?
I have a theory that you should invest in the companies that you hate the most. The usual reason for hating a company is that the company is so powerful it can make you balance your wallet on your nose while you beg for their product. Oil companies such as BP don’t actually make you beg for oil, but I think we all realize that they could. It’s implied in the price of gas.
I hate BP, but I admire them too, in the same way I respect the work ethic of serial killers. I remember the day I learned that BP was using a submarine…with a web cam…a mile under the sea…to feed live video of their disaster to the world. My mind screamed “STOP TRYING TO MAKE ME LOVE YOU! MUST…THINK…OF DEAD BIRDS TO MAINTAIN ANGER!” The geeky side of me has a bit of a crush on them, but I still hate them for turning Florida into a dip stick.
Apparently BP has its own navy, a small air force, and enough money to build floating cities on the sea, most of which are still upright. If there’s oil on the moon, BP will be the first to send a hose into space and suck on the moon until it’s the size of a grapefruit. As an investor, that’s the side I want to be on, with BP, not the loser moon.
I’d like to see a movie in which James Bond tries to defeat BP, but in the end they run Bond through a machine that turns him into “junk shot” debris to seal a leaky well. I’m just saying you don’t always have to root for Bond. Be flexible.
Perhaps you think it’s absurd to invest in companies just because you hate them. But let’s compare my method to all of the other ways you could decide where to invest.
Technical Analysis
Technical analysis involves studying graphs of stock movement over time as a way to predict future moves. It’s a widely used method on Wall Street, and it has exactly the same scientific validity as pretending you are a witch and forecasting market moves from chicken droppings.
Investing in Well-Managed Companies
When companies make money, we assume they are well-managed. That perception is reinforced by the CEOs of those companies who are happy to tell you all the clever things they did to make it happen. The problem with relying on this source of information is that CEOs are highly skilled in a special form of lying called leadership. Leadership involves convincing employees and investors that the CEO has something called a vision, a type of optimistic hallucination that can come true only in an environment in which the CEO is massively overcompensated and the employees have learned to be less selfish.
Track Record
Perhaps you can safely invest in companies that have a long track record of being profitable. That sounds safe and reasonable, right? The problem is that every investment expert knows two truths about investing: 1) Past performance is no indication of future performance. 2) You need to consider a company’s track record.
Right, yes, those are opposites. And it’s pretty much all that anyone knows about investing. An investment professional can argue for any sort of investment decision by selectively ignoring either point 1 or 2. And for that you will pay the investment professional 1% to 2% of your portfolio value annually, no matter the performance.
Invest in Companies You Love
Instead of investing in companies you hate, as I have suggested, perhaps you could invest in companies you love. I once hired professional money managers at Wells Fargo to do essentially that for me. As part of their service they promised to listen to the dopey-happy hallucinations of professional liars (CEOs) and be gullible on my behalf. The pros at Wells Fargo bought for my portfolio Enron, WorldCom, and a number of other much-loved companies that soon went out of business. For that, I hate Wells Fargo. But I sure wish I had bought stock in Wells Fargo at the time I hated them the most, because Wells Fargo itself performed great. See how this works?
Do Your Own Research
I didn’t let Wells Fargo manage my entire portfolio, thanks to my native distrust of all humanity. For the other half of my portfolio I did my own research. (Imagine a field of red flags, all wildly waving. I didn’t notice them.) My favorite investment was in a company I absolutely loved. I loved their business model. I loved their mission. I loved how they planned to make our daily lives easier. They were simply adorable as they struggled to change an entrenched industry. Their leaders reported that the company had finally turned cash positive in one key area, thus validating their business model, and proving that the future was rosy. I doubled down. The company was Webvan, may it rest in peace.
(This would be a good time to remind you not to make investment decisions based on the wisdom of cartoonists.)
But What About Warren Buffett?
The argument goes that if Warren Buffett can buy quality companies at reasonable prices, hold them for the long term and become a billionaire, then so can you. Do you know who would be the first person to tell you that you aren’t smart enough or well-informed enough to pull that off? His name is Warren Buffett. OK, he’s probably too nice to say that, but I’m pretty sure he’s thinking it. However, he might tell you that he makes his money by knowing things that other people don’t know, and buying things that other people can’t buy, such as entire companies.
People Love Berkshire Hathaway And That Has Done Great
I’m not saying that the companies you love are automatically bad investments. I’m saying that investing in companies you love is riskier than investing in companies you hate.
Second, take a look at Berkshire Hathaway’s holdings. It’s a rogue’s gallery of junk food purveyors, banks, insurance companies and yes, Goldman Sachs and Moody’s. The second largest holding of Berkshire Hathaway is…wait for it…Wells Fargo.
(Disclosure: I own stock in Berkshire Hathaway for the very reasons I’m describing. And my first job out of college was at Crocker National Bank, later swallowed by Wells Fargo.)
Let’s talk about morality. Can you justify owning stock in companies that are treating the Earth like a prison pillow with a crayon face? Of course you can, but it takes some mental gymnastics. I’m here to help.
If you buy stock in a despicable company, it means some of the previous owners of that company sold it to you. If the stock then rises more than the market average, you successfully screwed the previous owners of the hated company. That’s exactly like justice, only better because you made a profit. Then you can sell your stocks for a gain and donate all of your earnings to good causes, such as education for your own kids.
Having absorbed all of the wisdom I have presented here so far, you are naturally wondering if I have any additional investment tips. Yes, and I will put my tips in the form of a true story. Recently I bought something called an iPhone. It drops calls so often that I no longer use it for audio conversations. It’s too frustrating. And unlike my old BlackBerry days, I don’t send e-mail on the iPhone because the on-screen keyboard is, as far as I can tell, an elaborate practical joke. I am, however, willing to respond to incoming text messages a long as they are in the form of yes-no questions and my answer are in the affirmative. In those cases I can simply type “k,” the shorthand for OK, and I have trained my friends and family to accept L, J, O, or comma as meaning the same thing.
The other day I was in the Apple Store, asking how to repair a defective Apple laptop, and decided, irrationally, that I needed to have Apple’s new iPad. The smiling Apple employee said she would be willing to put me on a list so I could wait an indefinite amount of time to maybe someday have one. I instinctively put my wallet on my nose and started barking like a seal, thinking it might reduce the wait time, but they’re so used to seeing that maneuver that it didn’t help.
My point is that I hate Apple. I hate that I irrationally crave their products, I hate their emotional control over my entire family, I hate the time I waste trying to make iTunes work, I hate how they manipulate my desires, I hate their closed systems, I hate Steve Jobs’s black turtlenecks, and I hate that they call their store employees Geniuses which, as far as I can tell, is actually true. My point is that I wish I had bought stock in Apple five years ago when I first started hating them. But I hate them more every day, which is a positive sign for investing, so I’ll probably buy some shares.
Again, I remind you to ignore me.
—Scott Adams is the creator of “Dilbert.”
Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page W3
Anyone look at the map Cindy posted @19?
I can’t be reading that map right.. What’s the scale represent? E.g. Monmouth is a shade of blush on the “low” side but a mouse-over reveals 4,252 foreclosures against 1,261 homes for sale! Those numbers alone are enough to stop me from even perusing the MLS for another year. Am I missing something?
#46 Ben
Have to agree there. AB, Miller and Coors nearly killed the American brewing industry. Micros are the only American beers worth drinking.
Re: McSorley’s. Drink it in the city. The bottled stuff is contract brewed outside of NYC and its not very good.
hyde
as you know compounding is exponential so any deviation from household income growth is simply unsustainable. so comparison with growth curves is not very useful, distance from inflation or multiples of income is what matters. that’s why I like your distance numbers. it would be interesting to see how those change over time and why as well as comparison with other variables although I guess this would be a dissertation topic if it is not already
Adam Lambert tonight at the Starland Ballroom. Whoa. I’m scarred for life.
Poor
as you know compounding is exponential so any deviation from household income growth is simply unsustainable. so comparison with growth curves is not very useful,
Inflation has averaged about 3% for the last 2 decades, so in this case i would imagine that using the growth curves should be informative in relation to inflation trends.
There is also the standing concept that housing prices rise at a long term average of 3% annually.
First lets consider average long term growth of 3%. If that is indeed the case, then when inflation adjusted, home prices should be about flat but they aren’t. By converting the data from nominal to real i am essentially converting the trends from exponential to linear.
The trends would seem to show average housing prices growing at about 1.5-2% faster then inflation for the last 20 years.
Now lets consider multiples of income. We have fluctuated from 3.0 to 5+ and are drifting back down as we speak. In NJ, we were at or right below 3.0 for the median home/median income in about 1999.
My guess in all of this is that to set your trend curves at a reasonable starting point you should choose a period in time when the income ratio is close to the 2.5 – 3.0 range. If framed appropriately i thin these curves could be useful but it would be key to set them from a solid start point.
I suspect major social changes such a dual income families becoming prevalent in the 70s/80s created support for higher home prices then long term historical trends would have suggested. The question now is, given the changes structural changes we are seeing in employment trends, are we going to revert to the historical home price trends? If so we face a substantial drop yet, but if the 2 income family with generally growing incomes can be maintained then the higher then normal prices could possibly be maintained.
If you’d care to support me i would be happy to write a dissertation on the matter.
Anyone see Veto lately??
Ket 100 was waiting for him to comment on your chart.
Thanks all on job loss, unemployment for what 99 weeks now.
Clot 59 we raise them big in Vernon. Let me know on the outing.
*sigh*
scotch at 0300
after 50 people, including 15 kids piles and piles of food, drink and homemade slushy lemonade (brain freezers!) yummy sangrias, mango slushies and still more food, all finally packed away…
I am finally done. (and f cking sore/achy/blistered/cut, I might add.)
And might have tried to get a GTG here if possible but, alas, was too late.
I am halfway through a scotch on the rocks and whupped.
I would be thrilled with a GTG… Can we do it on a day that I’m not working?
sl (sl..urring.. or just about slurring.)
coast (98)-
Take a shower. No…take seven showers.
I downloaded Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 torrent from http://www.games-iso.com a couple of weeks ago and, even though its a”dusty” game, its the best PC game ever made in my opinion =)
Clot new tall grass house, on my block 5 houses down. When built largest house in town, move theater, bowling really nice. I did the floors know it well. Guy bought a place down south on an island. Couldn’t sell without coming to table with a pant load so here we are.
Anybody in the market for a church?
Recession causes houses of faith to flood N.J. realty market
By Star-Ledger Staff
June 06, 2010, 7:15AM
The latest entries in the New Jersey real estate market feature some unusual amenities.
A two-floor building in Seaside Heights comes with a baptismal pool, as well as a few “open sitting/reading areas.”
In Montclair, a 16,133-square-foot property includes Palladian windows and a large wood-paneled conference room.
There’s a basement meeting hall and “main sanctuary” in an Audubon facility overlooking Hidden Lake Park — on sale for $490,000.
The three church properties are just a sample of the many houses of faith that have come on the market in New Jersey alongside a flood of foreclosed residences. Experts point to a range of factors, from long-developing demographic shifts to a drop in donations during a tough recession.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/06/recession_causes_houses_of_fai.html
106.
My daughter’s soon to be parents in law converted a church in Greenwich. Click on the slide show. Its cool.
http://www.dwell.com/articles/pastoral-manner.html
Ooops sorry for the double post. I thought the first one didn’t post.
Mike 105
maybe I should move in and squat. I will even cut the grass
NJC —
That Church is very nicely done. Reminds me a little bit of the Weichert office in Holmdel, although Jim W probably kept the collection plates in use!
BTW — You mentioned Moe Septee last week and you brought back a flood of memories. I was in attendance of almost everyone one of the acts you mentioned. As I recall it, the Led Zep show was on Woodstock Weekend, but my memories of those daze are clouded by the passage of time.
Squating, the new black!
Fiddy-
Yeah Moe Septee was a cool guy. I had the pleasure of his friendship in his waning years. He used to tell great stories, like when he argued with Mick Jagger on the Asbury boardwalk because Mick didn’t want to do 2 shows. Moe tells Mick, I paid the rent for this building for the whole night- you’re playing 2 shows. And the time he booked the Beatles into the Philly Spectrum and one of them asked him for some beer. Moe went out and got it and said to them, that will be 2 bucks. He couldn’t believe how crazy backstage catering is now.
Back in the Moe Septee Summer of Stars days, if it was the Sabbath, he would walk the 2 miles from his Deal home to Convention Hall with a suitcase of cash (bands back then got paid cash as soon as they stepped on stage), settle the show, shake hands, and walk home. One summer this kid comes up to him and says Mr Septee I’ve been following you around all summer watching everything you do and how you do it, and I just wanted to meet you and say how much I admire you, and tell you I’m going to bury you. His name was John Scher. The next summer John started booking shows at the Casino down the boardwalk.
Tornado watch 272 for NJ until 8 P.M.
NJC —
Fascinating. I remember the summer that John Scher started his Casino concerts….mid 70’s I think (again, my recollections are “hazy” at best). But, I knew the back way into the Casino and got to see many of John’s early concerts without making a donation. Imagine trying that in some of his later concerts!
My vivid memory of Mr Septee — He ventured on stage to introduce Alvin Lee & Ten Years After. He stepped up to the mike and using all 10 fingers on both hands shouted, “Ten Years After”
Can I ask you what your involvement is in that scene these days?
107.
NJCoast
I not a big fan of church conversions, but I’m totes jelz of your daughters in law’s, beautiful. Also, love Dwell and that candy chandelier has been popping up all over the place, weird.
daughter’s in laws that is
Fiddy-
Back stage hospitality- as one band coined me, the Donna Reed of Rock n’ Roll.
Even though it is the toughest venue to work- lugging gear/food/drink up three flights of stairs, with no kitchen, no running water, and other hardships, I still love to creep up to the spotlight booth at Convention Hall where tech guys from the Rollingstones to Fall Out Boys have left their mark with graffiti on the walls.
The Paramount Theatre is known to have the best acoustics of any theatre around. Even though the backstage is a dump, many artists love to play the place because the sound is that good.
The 60’s Happy Together Reunion show last Friday was a hoot. We spent the day comparing their publicity photos with how they actually looked. The whole audience was singing and the ushers were dancing in the aisles. Backstage the promoters and even my 20- something assistant were dancing when Mickey Dolenz played “I’m a Believer”. My assistant said hey that’s the song from Shrek!Sheesh.
Barb,
Agree. I think the only way we will end up buying a house is from a bank. I refuse to buy someone else’s upside down mortage or replenish their 401k so they can move to Florida. Everything we see listed is at 2006 prices plus commission. We may be renters the rest of our lives but I’d rather sit on a pile of cash than become a bag holder. Sellers today are trolling for suckers.
In my mis-spent youth, I worked at that recording studio in back of Asbury Park, Sound Arts Studios. I’ve carried my share of gear up & down stairs.
Funny Story….we were doing a live recording of the Army Band, over at the Ft Monmouth Giggs Hall. The band was doing a concert of Sousa Tunes, and they cranked up the full brass section. Suddenly, a player loses his slide right off the end of his trombone. So he has to crawl along the row and retrieve it while the ‘bones are sawing away right above his head. They didn’t miss a beat. Army Strong.
“We’ll clean it up in the mix” was our motto in those days.
DL,
short sales are the only sales. I’ve been looking for 6 years and I have yet to find a home that wasn’t HELOCed to death. There is no other reasonable deal to be made than a bank owned deal or true short sale. Buyers are mos def trolling for suckers and I tell listing agents that straight up. They used to get all insulted, now they just nod knowingly.
chi (94)-
Funny. Please phone me when the executions begin.
Buyers are mos def trolling for suckers.
Barbara/DL,
I can’t agree more. Anyone signing a contract that isn’t for a bargain basement fire sale special is crazy. Your net worth has been reduced by 10% the moment you’ve signed your name on the last of the 86 dotted lines pushed in front of your face at the closing. Sure, go take the family out and celebrate, you’ve just placed yourself in a hole for at least the next ten years. And remember, I’m a homeowner.
I am wondering what people think about buying a home in Montvale or Park Ridge, NJ, while also commuting to New York City? Is this commute too far to maintain a nice work/family balance? We would ideally like to pay $550K for a 4BR, 2 1/2 bath colonial on 1/3+acre property in the spring/summer 2011. Do you think this is a possibility?
Greta,
$550K for a 4bd/2.5bth in Montvale/Park Ridge on .33+ acre? Does the house have running water and a roof? You may want to look in Saddle Brook or Elmwood Park.
#124 Gary
Not having a roof and running water are minor inconveniences that one must bear in order to experience the pride of home ownership in PBC.
Besides, you can always HELOC the crap out of the place later to add the amenities, since real estate always goes up. My Realtor(R) told me so.
/sarcasm
The bank owned dump I looked at last week in Interlaken, where the construction problems were so bad the house would probably have to be taken to the studs at the very least..Under Contract. Suckers.
NJCoast
Interlaken is NJ gov criminal central. no surprise, there’s no end of cash flow for that crowd.
Shore Guy,
As requested, my review of Anderson Valley’s Barney Flats Oatmeal Stout.
In a word, the stuff rocks. Maybe the best oatmeal stout I’ve ever had.
A fairly vigorous pour into a pint glass produced a black as night brew with an inch of foam.
Chocolate, coffee, chicory notes in the aroma are matched in the taste.
A little flowery hop bitterness on the finish, just to keep it honest.
I found that it felt a bit thin for my taste, a minor quibble. All in all, a very well crafted brew and an outstanding example of the style.
The best beer brewed? Perhaps the best beer for a particular taster. There are a whole bunch of beers that I would put ahead of it, but that’s my preference.
The question of the what is the best beer brewed made me do some research. The beer geek consensus seems to be Westvleteren 12, a quadrupel Trappist Ale from the Abbey of St. Sixtus.
Sadly, I’ve never had it, as it is not readily available in the USA. I understand that it is similar to Rochefort 10 and St. Bernardus Abt 12, only better. I would love to give it a try as those ales are two of the finest I’ve ever had.
Fiddy,
That place does a nice Sunday brunch, actually
“Buyers are mos def trolling for suckers.”
More like the selers are looking for suckers. And, all it takes is one sucker per available property.
Will Work,
Maybe you can work up a list of like 15-20 beers that are kinda consensus choices for the very best available. I am not really a beer guy and won’t work myself through 500 beers to find a few great ones, but I would be willing to try some of the better ones.
Shore 130,
“More like the sellers are looking for suckers..”
That’s what I meant.
“John Scher ”
NJC,
One day I find myself at John Scher’s father’s house (don’t ask, it is a long story) and his dad says I want to show you something. He walks me and a friend down to John’s room, which was maintained like a shrine to John’s senior year in high school.
It was not unilke the opening scene of Almost Famous, looking back into a time capsule.
Barbara says:
June 6, 2010 at 5:53 pm
NJCoast
Interlaken is NJ gov criminal central. no surprise, there’s no end of cash flow for that crowd.
Really? I’ve never heard of Interlaken referred to as that. Are we talking about town- Monmouth County, near Asbury Park, 5 blocks wide and 7 blocks long? My impression of Interlaken (I live less than a mile away) is that it is now mostly wealthier gays that flipped their houses at the top in Asbury and high tailed it out of town or are coming directly from NYC, and retired people. The Brooklyn summer crowd dipped their toe into Interlaken a few years ago and quickly changed their mind.
You can’t beat the property taxes in that town. A $700,000 house pays an average seven grand in taxes.
Going back to the lead article –
I am getting really tired of the gov’ts going ever-deeper in-the-red using my f’in tax money to prop up these overpriced hard assets that were being treated as aggressive investment vehicles by herd mentality fools.
Ah, happy to have got that off my chest.
chicagofinance says:
June 3, 2010 at 6:20 pm
My comment implies a tweak/adjustment of a portfolio, not a paradigm shift;
Where do you park the cash? In cash.
In order:
Safety;
Liquidity;
Yield….
To be clear, whatever the f happens will be done by Labor Day…..
(1) The fearful will run;
(2) The opportunists will jump in;
(3) Everyone else is too f’ing lazy and distracted to do anything more than complain a lot, text on the iShite, and then go back to slamming down burgers and shakes at Sonic.
ChiFi – so this negativity … are you thinking down 7000? something worse? bank runs?
As I have mentioned a couple times before, beware of the Horn of Africa:
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Story posted 2010.06.06 at 04:18 PM CDT
NEW YORK (AP)– Two New Jersey men who envisioned a terrorist attack in the U.S. with a body count twice that of the Fort Hood massacre were arrested at a gate New York’s Kennedy Airport as they were about to board flights on their way to Somalia to seek terror training from al-Qaida-affiliated jihadists, officials said.
Mohamed Mahmood Alessa, 20, and Carlos Eduardo Almonte, 26, were arrested Saturday before they could board separate flights to Egypt and then continue on to Somalia, federal officials in New Jersey and the New York Police Department said.
snip
“You cant beat the property taxes in that town. A $700,000 house pays an average seven grand in taxes”
NJC,
Isn’t there a move afoot that will cause that to change? I just remember all those “Governor, save us” signs.
Or was that Loch Arbor?
I wonder if Barbara :134 was thinking of Lakewood, not Interlaken. Her comments make more sense in that context.
#
#
jj says:
June 4, 2010 at 8:31 am
wouldn’t it be cheaper just to shoot yourself in the head than to move to PA?
I don’t get the savings. Retired people have no mortage so is the RE taxes that big a thing, doesn’t NJ have STAR relief on property taxes for seniors like NY does?
Plus aren’t most retirees veterns which is a second RE tax break. Most people over 60 had to serve at on point as we had a manadatory draft.
taxes on the pension, chief …
nawp, talking about Loch Arbor and Interlocken, north of Asbury. Irish Riviera. And…. I’ve already said too much :X
Chrissie Hynde wrote this about Akron yet it could, with a few modifications apply to NJ:
I WENT BACK TO OHIO
BUT MY CITY WAS GONE
THERE WAS NO TRAIN STATION
THERE WAS NO DOWNTOWN
SOUTH HOWARD HAD DISAPPEARED
ALL MY FAVORITE PLACES
MY CITY HAD BEEN PULLED DOWN
REDUCED TO PARKING SPACES
A, O, WAY TO GO OHIO
WELL I WENT BACK TO OHIO
BUT MY FAMILY WAS GONE
I STOOD ON THE BACK PORCH
THERE WAS NOBODY HOME
I WAS STUNNED AND AMAZED
MY CHILDHOOD MEMORIES
SLOWLY SWIRLED PAST
LIKE THE WIND THROUGH THE TREES
A, O, OH WAY TO GO OHIO
I WENT BACK TO OHIO
BUT MY PRETTY COUNTRYSIDE
HAD BEEN PAVED DOWN THE MIDDLE
BY A GOVERNMENT THAT HAD NO PRIDE
THE FARMS OF OHIO
HAD BEEN REPLACED BY SHOPPING MALLS
AND MUZAK FILLED THE AIR
FROM SENECA TO CUYAHOGA FALLS
SAID, A, O, OH WAY TO GO OHIO
ohio and nj are very similar.
Japan’s market down 3.4% at the open. Tomorrow will be a wide day on Wall Street.
I read on Calculated Risk this morning that the G-20 cancelled their stimulus plan. This may be the reason for the sour markets.
Barbara-
Irish Riviera refers to Spring Lake. Certainly Loch Arbour and Interlaken are not predominately Irish anymore.
Shore-
It is Loch Arbour that had the school tax formula changed. Interlaken, Deal and Allenhurst are still on a per student tuition basis to Asbury Park. They were not forced to merge with Asbury Park because it has been deemed a failed district.
Schundler and Christie are busy with other education related stuff and have dropped the whole matter…for now the low taxes remain.
[74] morpheus
“Nom knows law, I know beer and a wee bit of law.”
Nom also knows beer, though not like you or WWFB.
WillWork-
I almost bought a Methuselah of St Bernardus Abt 12 today. 6L for 179.
If baby #2 ever makes its debut, I’m going to pick one up for a celebration. It’s just way to big for me to store somewhere though.
I just found a relatively local store that had magnums and bigger of it, was pretty psyched.
Have you ever tried the Ten-Fidy Russian Imperial Stout? The beer geeks at my regular store turned me on to it. It’s a serious beer.
Sounds like it would be right in your wheelhouse.
“Anyone see Veto lately??”
Heard he was hired as the Chief Bullion Trader at JPM. However, almost lost his job when he asked why he was trading gold versus yen, euro, dollar, bp, etc.. Told his boss that he was taught that gold was a commodity; it only thrives in an inflationary environment? Confusion reigns.
NJ Coast,
I’m not going to argue, not that important.
#148 jpl
Please share your source. Get my email from Grim if you’re scared of overexposure.
Ten Fidy is on my short list. I like most of the Oskar Blues catalog although I have to say I was a little put off by the can-centric focus at first.
Yikes, [136],
Don’t bet against the vigilantes. On rallies, sell and fold.
visitor (135)-
Don’t forget to vote with a bullet.
Euro getting crushed
EUR/USD 1.1880
Nikkei down 420.
Just sell. Sell, short, sell, short.
This sucker’s going down hard.
Still, EUR/JPY getting crushed.
Tomorrow is gonna be plain nasty.
I can’t wait. :)
What new thing will the gubmint and/or corporate Amerika find to fcuk up this week?
“By now everyone is aware that the G20 meeting failed to come to a consensus vis-a-vis strategic rescue approaches on the global bailout, with Tim Geithner pushing for uber-Keynesianism, while a far more prudent Europe saying enough to record deficits, and in essence potentially putting the end to the avalanche of endless bailouts and the Bernanke Uber-Put. At least such is the case until tomorrow when Europe’s bureaucrats wake up and see a EURUSD at a level that rounds down to 1.10. The reason: Der Spiegel reports that Germany’s high court is considering blocking Germany’s participation in the European rescue package, a development which if it were to come to pass, would send the euro plunging to parity not with the dollar but with zero.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eurusd-plunging-news-european-aid-package-jeopardy
Die, markets, die!!!!!!!
WillWork (151)-
Agreed about the cans, but I dig all of the ones I’ve tried from Oskar Blues as well.
I’ll get your email from Grim tmw and shoot you a note.
WillWork & Gary,
Thanks for your responses. I kind of knew this would be “not likely” but I am hoping by 2011 more homeowners will understand what is affordable to buyers and lower their expectations a bit, even if they still continue to list at $650K and above. I will look into Saddle Brook, we need good public schools and am not sure of their reputation.
Thank you for a great post
Heya¡my very first comment on your site. ,I have been reading your blog for a while and thought I would completely pop in and drop a friendly note. . It is great stuff indeed. I also wanted to ask..is there a way to subscribe to your site via email?
Was an interesting article, thank you..
I love Shrek movies, awesome animation film.
Great blog post.Really looking forward to read more.
Super-Duper site! I will be loving it!! Will come back again – taking you feeds also, Thanks.
yea decent Work
Astounding friend. Its fantastic and such an wonderful issue. I’d add this to my rss feed
gr8 resrch bro…
Hello, like the Shrek movies, super film!
Great post!
Thanks incredibly very much for revealing this exciting post. I am just starting up my personal webpage and this has provided me inspiration to what I can accomplish.
Spitze Design hat dieser Blog. Woher hast du die Vorlage ? War bestimmt sehr teuer.
Hello, like the Toy Story movies, very good animation!
My sister is mad when seeing these kind of films.
I can say that your headline “new jersey real estate report we’ll meet …” and many other things cause me to spend more time on your site.
Surprise! You genuinely covered this issue effectively. Are there other resources i always should verify out?
Informative post! Any thoughts that you maybe willing to divulge in order to illustrate the second part a small bit more? peace
My colleage was full of joy when reading this line on your blog “… get the same deals they could get six months ago,” Otteau said. “What buyers are saying is that …” it gets me to look brighter after learning it.
Hello webmaster I like your post ….
thanks to your ideas , i¡¯d adore to adhere to your weblog as usually as i can.possess a good day
Your headline “new jersey real estate report we’ll meet again, …” is just good, other blogger should learn from you..
I’m not aware of any books like your idea, but I’m not exactly a librarian. Regardless, you can but your thoughts together for your own benefit as well as others. Quite often our identity can be wrapped up in our careers, when there is really a change there could be emptiness left. Fortunately, it is not to late to fill that void as lengthy as we are still alive. One of the best methods to obtain your phone to ring is to dial it first. Just like everything else in existence that is worthwhile it will consider time. Great Luck
Please tell me it worked right? I dont want to sumit it again if i do not have to! Either the blog glitced out or i am an idiot, the second option doesnt surprise me lol. thanks for a great blog!
I think, to be a good affiliate marketer is the hardest thing to do as a blogger, you must have huge traffic to get the possible buyer and also you have to build your own audience, because honestly i’ve never made a single sale with my first blog
Useful Article…I had to take a look at it a few times,as i had different views on the topic,and it would be useful to see what others thing on the subject
Your headline phrase “new jersey real estate report we’ll meet …” shows that you understand well your subscribers.
This is one of the most compelling post I ever read today, I’m uttering about this section of your article “… deals they could get six months ago,” Otteau said. “What buyers are saying is that …” this is it, you just smashed it down buddy.
like most homebuyers finding a new house is hard as you really need to know the local neighborhood and market carefully especially now. I worked with http://www.empiregroup.com and can say if your searching for Hoboken Real Estate take a look.
It’s a very good blog everyone had come about. I regard the combination of first-class and exact knowledge besides certain inventive direction. It’s seemly to be capable to at last discover top-notch website where I judge I able confide in the text as well as adhere to them who which publish it. Because of the web bullshit these days I repeatedly appreciate finding some real presences on the cyberspace. Thanks for blogging and go on the awesome job, please… :)
As a Newbie, I am incessantly looking online for articles that can facilitate me. Please subscribe me with the email address that I just put in. I would like to take notifications on next post. Giant web log and good post.
thanks for your blog:)
Justa Tassoni
Berry Staudenmeier
I can certify that your headline “new jersey real estate report we’ll meet again…” proves that you read well your subscribers.
Very interesting information , i will bookmark your blog right now
Your headline “new jersey real estate report we’ll meet again, …” discribes your content.
Great themes! I just need this theme. Thank you for the sharing!
I would like to say, nice webpage. Im not sure if it has been addressed, however when using Firefox I can never get the entire page to load without refreshing alot of times. Could just be my modem.
Taking a closer look of an Apple iPhone 4 past all the advertising and glamour, people are now realizing that the iPhone 4 is turning out to be an unexpected expensive paperweight. Dropped calls and data attempts are now occuring a lot more frequently, it is unavoidably a software flaw coming from Apple. There was a class action lawsuit filed only 6 days after launch accusing Apple and AT&T on numerous accounts of negligence.
Sweet blog and super revealing post! It’s nifty content like this that keeps me coming back. I think finding others to teach about gambling is really significant…I meet some great friends, and get some fantabulous tips online. I use several sites online but my favorite is Betters Chat Forum
Checking into a close review of the Apple iPhone 4 past all the hype and assumptions, customers who bought the phone are finally recognizing that their new phone is turning out to be an unexpected expensive paperweight. Failed calls occuring a lot more frequently, it is inevitablely turning out to be a design flaw straight from Apple. There was a class action lawsuit filed only 6 days after launch accusing Apple and AT&T on numerous accounts of actions.
Thank you for a great post
Hi, found google to your this blog and it appeard funny but after refresh site displayed fine. Just thought id let you know and keep up the good work.
Awecome movies, watched it 2 times in the last couple of days
Good fences make good neighbours
Hmmm…very good to find out, there have been without a doubt a number of elements that I had not idea of before.
I have been surfing on the internet far more than 3 hours today, nevertheless I under no circumstances uncovered any exciting article like yours. It’s rather worth adequate for me. In my opinion, if all webmasters and bloggers manufactured great content material as you did, the net will likely be a lot more useful than ever just before.