From the Wall Street Journal:
The Myth of the Back-to-the-City Migration
Pundits, planners and urban visionaries—citing everything from changing demographics, soaring energy prices, the rise of the so-called “creative class,” and the need to battle global warming—have been predicting for years that America’s love affair with the suburbs will soon be over. Their voices have grown louder since the onset of the housing crisis. Suburban neighborhoods, as the Atlantic magazine put it in March 2008, would morph into “the new slums” as people trek back to dense urban spaces.
But the great migration back to the city hasn’t occurred. Over the past decade the percentage of Americans living in suburbs and single-family homes has increased. Meanwhile, demographer Wendell Cox’s analysis of census figures show that a much-celebrated rise in the percentage of multifamily housing peaked at 40% of all new housing permits in 2008, and it has since fallen to below 20% of the total, slightly lower than in 2000.
Housing prices in and around the nation’s urban cores is clear evidence that the back-to-the-city movement is wishful thinking. Despite cheerleading from individuals such as University of Toronto Professor Richard Florida, and Carole Coletta, president of CEOs for Cities and the Urban Land Institute, this movement has crashed in ways that match—and in some cases exceed—the losses suffered in suburban and even exurban locations. Condos in particular are a bellwether: Downtown areas, stuffed with new condos, have suffered some of the worst housing busts in the nation.
Take Miami, once a poster child for urban revitalization. According to National Association of Realtors data, the median condominium price in the Miami metropolitan area has dropped 75% from its 2007 peak, far worse than 50% decline suffered in the market for single family homes.
Then there’s Los Angeles. Over the last year, according to the real estate website Zillow.com, single-family home prices in the Los Angeles region have rebounded by a modest 10%. But the downtown condo market has lost over 18% of its value. Many ambitious new projects, like Eli Broad’s grandiose Grand Avenue Development, remain on long-term hold.
…
Demographic trends, including an oft-predicted tsunami of Baby Boom “empty nesters” to urban cores, have been misread. True, some wealthy individuals have moved to downtown lofts. But roughly three quarters of retirees in the first bloc of retiring baby boomers are sticking pretty close to the suburbs, where the vast majority now reside. Those that do migrate, notes University of Arizona Urban Planning Professor Sandi Rosenbloom, tend to head further out into the suburban periphery. “Everybody in this business wants to talk about the odd person who moves downtown, but it’s basically a ‘man bites dog story,'” she says. “Most retire in place.”Historically, immigrants have helped prop up urban markets. But since 1980 the percentage who settle in urban areas has dropped to 34% from 41%. Some 52% are now living in suburbs, up from 44% 30 years ago. This has turned places such as Bergen County, N.J., Fort Bend County, Texas, and the San Gabriel Valley east of Los Angeles into the ultimate exemplars of multicultural America.
…
But lower prices, or a shift to rentals, could prove financially devastating for urban developers and their investors, who now may be slow to re-enter the market. And for many cities, the bust could represent a punishing fiscal blow, given the subsidies lavished on many projects during the era of urbanist frenzy.The condo bust should provide a cautionary tale for developers, planners and the urban political class, particularly those political “progressives” who favor using regulatory and fiscal tools to promote urban densification. It is simply delusional to try forcing a market beyond proven demand.
I’m having entirely too much anxiety
sl
It makes no sense as to why people would think that retirees would move into urban areas.
Urban places tend to be noisier and more expensive.
Old people like cheap and quiet.
Local appraiser turned housing economist Jeffery Otteau has hung his hat on this idea for years now.
As have I, to a large extent. Although never, ever, for retirees, who would rather (and willingly) send themselves to the internment camps in the South.
Green acres is the place for me.
Farm livin’ is the life for me.
Land spreadin’ out so far and wide.
Keep Manhattan, just give me that countryside.
Grim
if we see continued, growing social instability it may occur under duress. The same dynamic occured in Argentina as the only work to be found and the places with semi-intact government services were the urban centers
Sl
what’s wrong????
this is the worst article about Edison, NJ i’ve ever read.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1999416,00.html
what would the outrage be like if someone wrote the same thing about Tenafly, NJ?
Sastry,
Did I read your last post correctly? Are you currently between jobs?
“Whats the outcome when you can no longer rob Peter to pay Paul?” (from the last thread):
If one wants to emulate the GS pl? for achieving wealth, I suppose one establishes a derivative that pays big if some terrible fate befalls Peter and then one ensures that Peter encounter rather energetic oxidation accompanied by a huge increase in heat, pressure, and noise.
Nothinf personal, Peter, it is only business.
from previous thread:
Sorry doom, i have to disagree. I like aussie “footy”. In fact, worked on sunday and monday at home and watched replays on ESPN3 of aussie footy. Richmond tiger game was great.
BTW: the beaucoup compliments on the belgian white i served at our BBQ. Very citrus. I believe this is because it aged in the keg for over 4 months.
frist!
Oh, give me a home
Where the sandpiepers roam
And waves crash on the beach
All the day
Where seaguls fly, float, and whine
While I fritter away time
And the Bennies graciously stay away
Oh, home at the Shore
Where the sand and surf cover my feet
Where walking the boards
Away from the hoards
In November is always quite sweet.
© poster known as Shore Guy 2010. All rights sreserve.
LOL…When have old-timers migrated to urban? Is this article serious? I guess that was how it used to be before my time?? Boomers are still moving south now more than ever due to low prices or staying in their suburban home up north in fear for what the future could hold for them.
Urbanites are still your younger demographic and its not even close.
HeHe,
Only if you count like the congress or treasury dept.
sl, there are still some fantastic old fixer-uppers out here in the rebel countryside.
The patients would be just as pig-headed, but you could do solo if you lived lean.
Shore Guy says:
July 6, 2010 at 7:01 am
“What’s the outcome when you can no longer rob Peter to pay Paul?”
i agree this is a bad idea, slippery slope, etc.
BUT … the disaster in Ireland is proof of what happens when you cut public spending and raise taxes.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/29/business/global/29austerity.html
Is there no middle ground?
Essex,
For those at the top of the economic ladder, urban areas have much to recomend them: cultural attractions close by, no need to drive to go to dry cleaner, etc. The problem is extrapolating from the upper 1% or 1/2 of 1% and declaring a trend.
If we were going tp be empty nesters in our 50s, I would give serious consideration to being in an urban core for awhile. That said, I don’t know that I want to grow old and feeble in an urban environment, especially during a declining economy.
“Is there no middle ground?”
Yes. Cut spending and do not raise taxes.
Austerity. Great idea after the big party. Only no recovery will occur. Banks do not want one. They got their money.
No jobs. No recovery.
No Spending. No recovery.
Shore Guy: I agree with you to an extent. That said, I think areas like Montclair will do well in the near future. Considered the “Park Slope” of the suburbs, Montclair has 2 downtown districts where you can find everything you mentioned. NJTransit also mitigates a lot of unwanted car travel. Northern NJ suburbs and urban have similarities with what they offer. But if you are an old timer, that would wipe out any brownstone buildings or other buildings without elevators, high maintenance fees, etc.
Montclair is the next Irvington.
The vibrant “downtown” consists of more vacant than occupied storefronts. Restaurants are closing at an alarming rate. Residents are being crippled by frivalous tax spending. Schools? Not so great. Crime? Picking up.
No recovery until we start executing banksters and corrupt politicians.
In moderation?
Grim,
Did you really say that? Montclair to be the next Irvington? Every market is going thru the commercial meltdown. It’s not isolated. Geez! I want to say more but I can’t even dignify that dilusion.
Shore, not between jobs. Was trying to say my position on extended UI benefits is not based on current needs (yet, and I hope it won’t be anytime soon).
S
Hey, Irvington and Plainfield were once wonderful and vibrant towns as well. All it takes is a half hour drive though the once wealthy sections of those towns to realize it can happen.
Now, I’m not saying race riots will be the cause of decline in Montclair, but I’ll be damned if property taxes aren’t doing just as good a job of chasing out residents.
Shore Guy says:
July 6, 2010 at 8:08 am
“Is there no middle ground?”
Yes. Cut spending and do not raise taxes.
If it were that easy, why has it not been done?
Grim, I don’t doubt that areas of Essex/Passaic Cty will become more Section 8 popular, but it has a ways to grow out before it hits Montclair. Sections of Bloomfield, Paterson, etc. will experience this first. The more prone areas of Montclair are closer to Bloomfield AVe, near Mountainside Hosp. But that’s pretty much it. Just my opinion..It aint’ gonna happen in Montclair. But just my opinon :-)
Yikes
why hasn’t it been done? 2 reasons.
The banks/corporations have effectivly captured government and as such plan on making damn sure they get paid. Of course that means you can’t start cutting back on government spending.
Secondly, there is no significant difference between current government programs and a basic ponzi scheme. As such, the second you start cutting payments (spending) to those currently in line in the grand pyramid scheme, everyone will demand there payout immediatly. Of course that doesn’t work very well when you are robbing Peter to pay Paul. I believe madoff recently ran into the same problem.
It’s doable when we all accept that very few of the promises made by government will or can be fullfilled.
Edison #7
Joel Stein is a bigot. He should “retire”.
S
Actually, I know a fair number of people who want to move to NYC in retirement, at least for a few years. They’re raised their kids, and they’re tired of the white bread suburbs.
Mr Hyde says:
July 6, 2010 at 9:03 am
Yikes
why hasn’t it been done? 2 reasons.
You mean to tell me no talking heads, no journalists, NOBODY has pointedly asked the pres, economists, nobel prize winners, etc about the option of cutting spending and not raising taxes?
seems simple enough, no?
Yikes
What does cutting spending mean? It means people out of work. So far we have seen that no one group is willing to accept a pay cut in order to keep more of the group working. Besides most people cant afford to do so as most americans are drowning in debt.
What politician is going to suggest we make significant cuts in spending to bring out income inline with our expense? You would have to make significant cuts.
Anything besides maintaining spending means that you are going to spike unemployment big time.
On top of that you have economic dogma that is well entrenched. The modern keynesian dogma is SPEND SPEND SPEND when there is an economic down trend (too bad the politicos forgot the other half of keynes concept, SAVE~SAVE SAVE). To not increase spending and in fact cut spending in a recession/depression is hearsay in modern politicians. It also makes you easy pray for your political competitors who simply have to step up to the podium and point out that YOU put X hundreds/thousands of people out of work by cutting spending when the top Nobel economists say that you should be increasing spending!
cutting spending while holding taxes flat only works when the population demands it. Even then history shows that they tend to regret their calls for austerity of any form.
I used to own a condo in Montclair early 2000s. And then I thought about buying in that building across from the South Park until the readings here in 2006-2007 changed my mind. Montclair is heading toward a ridiculously rich-poor gap perfectly fitting for all the liberals who want to spend spend spend and cause spiral taxes to go way out of control and then send their kids to private schools all in the name of do-gooding diversity. Who are we kidding, the spies fit in perfectly there. I’ll side with Grim about the future of Montclair although I think Plainfield with their rich sections/houses the cops still protect may be more appropriate.
What restaurants have closed in Montclair the last couple of months? I wish I knew where the chef for the Mexican place ended up? They used to make a great chicken mole`
Who has a mortgage refi contact?
Had BBQ at friends place this weekend. Works for Citi. Buying second home in Catskills 2BR/2BA. I didn’t say anything. He asked me later on what I thought of the economy, I told him I think now that the stimulus has ended and has run its course we’ll end up right back where we were before all of it if not worse. “Nah that’ll never happen.”
I’m all for the power of positive thinking but I don’t see what would be any sort of positive economic catalyst at this point to prevent another collapse.
Stock market is popping baybee, maybe I was mistaken, we be rocketing higher on nothing but the power of positivity.
Dan,
You are talking about Siena, I’m assuming. That area is hit or miss but the immediate urban’ness is attractive, isn’t it? Those condos are pretty nice though and if you waited till now to buy there are some decent deals in there. I think there is a little flexibility in prices currently. You were probably wise not to buy in that building then as prices are down about 18% there since peak. Sure that area bordering W. Orange will be prone to a possible demographic hit, but the other side of Bloomfield Ave not so much as the other side.
HEHE
Positive thought is where its at! Jumped in on both big drops last week :)
Dont forget, i also went long on pets.com
Hyde,
Make sure you are stopped.
HEHE
I am.
dead cat bounce?????
32: Sastry: The article seems to be a joke.
See the end of article.
Grim is correct about the direction Montclair is heading. The town has massive debt, which has recently been downgraded. Property taxes continue to rise, home values continue to decline. Services reduced. Branch library is now open just one day a week. Schools remain mediocre at best. Residents are largely still in denial, hoping that the decline in property values is a temporary hiccup, and the return to the upside is just around the corner.
Has anyone here used Valley National Bank for a re-fi?
No hidden fees everything included $499
http://www.valleynationalbank.com/$499_Refinance.asp
Anyone here have a comment is this a real deal or bullspit?
“If it were that easy, why has it not been done?”
Legislative pensions. As long s one may retire with a legislative pension, one has a disincentive to fix problems because the “fixes” cause pain to some group or groups of voters.
Just look at the objection to reducing the size of government employment. Critics often say that to do so is it increase unemployment. This reminds me of the people who LOVE paying a mortgage because of the tax savings; so they are thrilled to pay a dollar in order to get $.3 back in tax savings.
For a state government, they pay $1 (actually more because of benefit costs) to get back $.06 (actually less because benefits are not taxed) in income taxes from those employees.
Government should employ every last person it NEEDS but should not employ one more than that.
If unchecked government employment growth is a good thing, then why not hire EVERYONE? It worked for thr USSR, no?
38.Juice Box says:
July 6, 2010 at 9:47 am
Who has a mortgage refi contact?
Who doesn’t? Mortgage brokers are cheap and easy. Eveyone should have two.
essexbagholder (30)-
High property taxes driving out businesses and productive people. Raise taxes more, even as the tax base dwindles. Pander to the new electoral majority who operate only from a sense of envy and entitlement.
Sounds like a formula for turning a nice town into Irvington, NE Philly, Detroit, Cleveland or Plainfield. Montclair should hope they look like Irvington when it’s all said & done.
I think chances are good that Montclair ends up more like Paterson or Camden.
re#52 – Moose my mortgage broker is family and will soon be selling themselves to pay the rent, looking for opinions on Valley thanks…
HE (39)-
Always take the other side of the trade when dealing with C.
That guy’s purchase is as good as a depression call.
juice (38)-
First Valley Funding- Bob Farrell (908) 565-1640.
Several posters here have used them.
Doom,
High property taxes driving out businesses and productive people. Raise taxes more, even as the tax base dwindles. Pander to the new electoral majority who operate only from a sense of envy and entitlement.
Its almost like someone took the Memphis model of government and took it national.
OT, Can you recommend a few restaurant in the memphis area that are low key but tasty, steak and beer type joints? Unfortunately i must venture back down there in the near future.
Second Clot’s rec
Third – rec for FVF, Bob Farrell
Extremely responsive.
sl
hyde (57)-
Folk’s Folly and the Half Shell are always good.
Wall Street, “The Candle always glows brightest, before it goes out”!
Essex 30 – I actually live in Montclair and my opinion is much closer to Grim’s then to yours.
Our budget and debt situations are imploding. But on tonight’s council agenda is “Skatepark”.
Please keep spreading the sunshine. I may need one of those Park Slopers to buy me out one day.
I don’t see the Paterson thing happening in Montclair. But I definitely see hard times ahead for housing there and the area of town near bay street will get really bad, really quickly. Montclair is still considered desirable, has some really great houses, and is not a bad commute to the various job centers in the area. It is just going to have to trade at a discount, baring some unforeseen mega collapse I don’t see it becoming Irvington. The residents have too much money and too big of an investment there for that to happen.
As long as you are on right side of candle you won’t get burnt!!
Confused in NJ says:
July 6, 2010 at 11:42 am
Wall Street, “The Candle always glows brightest, before it goes out”!
Funny how too big an investment runs smack into shootout at the YMCA.
Gator and I watched a bit of the town council meeting on TV34 last night. One by one, each council member explained why we needed to restore some of the funding cuts to the library, the arts council and the community pre-K. At least three times, the town manager explained that there are only two ways to restore these cuts. Either raise revenues or cut from other areas. The town council decided to fund the majority of the restoration of these cuts from the sale of a township building. Hmmm. I wonder what they plan to do next year? BTW, our municipal tax increase is expected to top out over 11%. I really do hope that CC uses Montclair as an example of why we need a hard cap. I’m really hoping that is the reason the waiver was granted. But I doubt it. Christie is a politician, just like the rest of them.
My friend’s parents sold their Morris County house and retired as renters in Montclair. That would have been the way to go in 2006, but they did it 10 years earlier in 1996. My friend’s Dad has since passed on, but his mother still rents there.
JJ back from vaca… huzzah.
Simple equation. House prices are determined by the cash flow situation of the buyer.
Total Payments = Mortgage Payments + Tax Payments + Maintenance.
So, if you reduce taxes, then you increase the buying power by that amount, which can be leveraged further into the mortgage, translating into higher prices. So, unless you buy with cash, you are actually helping the banks balance sheet with larger debt servicing. On the other hand, higher property taxes “may” lead to better town services, via good governance, which theoretically is controlled by the taxpayer.
Pick your poison. Of course, higher property taxes are bad for current homeowners since it reduces their selling price by that amount.
I know that my argument will extrapolated to a ridiculous extreme, but that is the nature of this blog and discussion boards in general. On a long enough timescale, a clique forms and makes a certain point of view the accepted wisdom in that place, and ostracizes/ridicules others.
Vally Nat bank .great bank they don’t sell there mortgages …plus they have a space on your monthly payment to pre pay any amount you want .great monthly statement .I’ve had my mtg with them for years …..
JamalJamal
So, if you reduce taxes, then you increase the buying power by that amount
unless net income available for housing costs is dropping. If that’s the case you can have housing prices drop even as taxes drop. Of course the reverse should be true as well
unless net income available for housing costs is dropping. If that’s the case you can have housing prices drop even as taxes drop
The equation still holds. I did not say that housing prices will be higher than what they are today. You would be paying more for your house than in a situation where property taxes are a higher percentage of your house value.
[72] jamal
Don’t disagree, but there is a lot of elasticity in that construct, such that it doesn’t conform well to anything approaching mathematical certainty.
If you want, I’ll ridicule you, but not over that.
Nompounding, L.A. style:
http://www.kdvr.com/marketplace/realestate/la-fi-compounds-20100613,0,4931383.story
but there is a lot of elasticity in that construct, such that it doesn’t conform well to anything approaching mathematical certainty.
WTF?
If you want, I’ll ridicule you, but not over that.
No post of yours would be complete without it. Please feel free.
Is Montclair similar to sparta in that it has a revenue problem and not a spending problem?? ( thats what a large part of sparta seems to think) was Montclair’s last school budget voted down? are pols listening to people?
During our holiday visit back to the garden state we knocked around s orange a bit & went into the new grocery store. looks like they are trying to redevelop the downtown shopping district – is there some type of major push to stabalize the oranges? if I recall, montclair had a ton of vacant store fronts a few years ago – did not go there this trip.
crossroads 76 – We have elected officials on the record stating exactly that.
As for our school budgets, we don’t get to vote on them. We are one of the few towns in the state with an appointed BOE. The mayor appoints all members of our BOE. Our school budgets are then voted on by a 5 member Board of School Estimate – which is comprised of the Mayor, 2 members of the BOE and 2 members of the town council.
There was a recent ballot referendum to change us to an elected district, but that went down by an almost 3-2 margin amidst lots of insinuations that the elect the board petitioners were not looking for accountability but were actually closet r*cists attempting to dismantle our magnet school system.
jamil #47,
The “humor” was not…
Edison 7 – I am waiting for the follow-up article on how Marlboro was runied by the JAP invasion.
[75] jamal
You’re ugly and your mother dresses you funny.
Crossroads(76):
Montclair does not vote on their school budget. We have an appointed BOE and a Board of School Estimate that gives the school system everything they ask for. Hence, we have the best paid administrators in the state, too many substance abuse counselors to count and 5 assistant principals at the high school.
Montclair is a progressive enclave on the verge of financial collapse. Have no fear, when it does, the residents will blame it on Chris Christie, Ronald Reagan, Sara Palin, etc. The majority of our tax dollars goes to fund the have nots as the haves feel terribly guilty for them. After all, it’s hard to dine on $35 steaks when your crosstown neighbors are receiving food stamps. Additionally, we need to trumpet our diversity as long as said diversity receives enough crumbs to ensure they don’t vandalize my Prius or Subaru Outback. The whole thing is soo pathetic that it’s laughable. I’m waiting for the resolution to rename Montclair, 365 Every Day Value.
Montclair just sold off property at the lowest commercial value in years to pay operating costs of municipal workers and sees nothing wrong with this. When I emailed the mayor to tell him that he is a coward, he emails me back saying that I am obviously misguided. Things are different know. We have to lay off 12 workers. Talk to me when your company lays off 1/3rd of it’s workforce Mayor Fraud, like mine has.
Stu 82
I never realized Subaru Outbacks were some sort of status symbol. Prius yes, Outback though?
OT, but an interesting read:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/jun/23/henrietta-lacks-cells-medical-advances
Damn hippies and their subaru’s!!
Nomad, the SO performing arts center is only about 3 y/o and is right downtown alongside the train station. construction of at least a couple buildings downtown you see now paralleled its opening or finished recently. Not sure the current shopping base can support it but like you say trying to make it a hub.
lib (82)-
That is one f’ed up town you live in.
Montclair is like that episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm where Larry David takes is a black family fleeing Katrina…the “haves” play the Larry David part.
The way Montclair treats its less fortunate only ensures that they will become increasingly aggressive as their sense of entitlement swells.
“High property taxes driving out businesses and productive people.”
Enough whining about people who think they should be entitled to keep most of what they make in an age when there are so many who don’t have enough. What did encourging thrift and industry ever bring to the world? Compare that to the Great Society and such.
Letting people keep what they earn and reap what they sow sure doesn’t sound fair. Just ask BO and the liberals, they will tell you so.
“increasingly aggressive as their sense of entitlement swells”
It needs to swell, otherwise they can’t screw the tax payers.
Montclair is a disaster, I looked into buying there but quickly have decided it is a very risky place to buy, the government is out of hand, taxes must be some of the worst in the country and the school system is fairly worthless. You don’t get much for your tax dollar there.
All you need to know about Montclair:
The Montclair Town Council will discuss the budget at its meeting Tuesday night. Check out the agenda.
The budget also translates into tax increases of about 6 percent for Montclair taxpayers, said Councilor Cary Africk, “which includes the nearly 11 percent increase in the municipal rate.”
“And Montclair has huge debt,” he warned, estimating the total at more than $230 million. “Little of it is being paid off and almost half of it is in short-term one-year notes.”
http://montclair.patch.com/articles/town-council-will-grapple-again-with-tight-budget
Well and this…it’s what our mayor is thinking about when he should be dealing with our budget:
http://montclair.patch.com/articles/will-montclair-ever-become-more-bike-friendly
(23) grim: You say crime is “picking up” in Montclair. You’re welcome to any and all opinions, of course, but facts have an annoying tendency to make some opinions look, well, wrong.
Montclair crime stats from 2001 through 2008 show a trend downward–the rates of violent crime per 100K residents have fallen nearly in half over that period:
http://www.idcide.com/citydata/nj/montclair.htm
In 2009, the rate of violent crime relative to the prior year (which the above link establishes is nearly half the rate in 2001) was flat, with the mix of crimes showing a little variation: 47 robberies in 2009 versus 43 in 2008, 37 aggravated assaults in 2009 versus 40 in 2008, no murders in 2009 (vs. 1 in 2008), 1 rape in 2009 (vs. 2 in 2008).
And in 2010, the stats from the first half of the year for robberies, aggravated assaults, burglaries, and car thefts are all down–a few of these significantly.
So, is crime ‘picking up’ in Montclair? Compared to what?
Obama sues Arizona on behalf of Mexican Drug Lords.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_immigration_enforcement_lawsuit;_ylt=AnBDJs0HJYNEA654loADH4es0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTQyODNqMjFoBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTAwNzA2L3VzX2ltbWlncmF0aW9uX2VuZm9yY2VtZW50X2xhd3N1aXQEY2NvZGUDbW9zdHBvcHVsYXIEY3BvcwMxBHBvcwMyBHB0A2hvbWVfY29rZQRzZWMDeW5fdG9wX3N0b3J5BHNsawNmZWRzdG9maWxlbGE-
Post Office raises rates, can’t afford Legacy Pension & Benefits.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100706/ap_on_bi_ge/us_postal_rates;_ylt=As0if0OY9..jFQXf10rw3xCs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNqaXYxM29zBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTAwNzA2L3VzX3Bvc3RhbF9yYXRlcwRjY29kZQNtb3N0cG9wdWxhcgRjcG9zAzUEcG9zAzIEcHQDaG9tZV9jb2tlBHNlYwN5bl9oZWFkbGluZV9saXN0BHNsawNwb3N0b2ZmaWNlYW4-
Amazing that Congress can’t stop illegals from crossing our border from Mexico & Canada, yet think they can stop the Taliban crossing the border from Pakistan to Afghanistan? One would think our own border, which you can drive too, would be easier?
Gator
“Little of it is being paid off and almost half of it is in short-term one-year notes.”
LOL. I cant wait to see the mushroom cloud when rates jump at some point or their credit rating takes a big hit and forces their rates higher.
Congress actually wants to help Mexican drug lords and Afghan warlords.
Their real enemy is us. We are the ones they hate.
Gator
Nothing personal, i hope the gator family escapes before then.
Doom
So you are saying i should have taken the job offer in Columbia?
hyde (98)-
They’d be ding their taxpayers a favor to just go ahead and BK.
Natch, they’d rather keep spending/taxing until they bleed everyone there dry.
hyde (101)-
At least there, you know who the good guys and bad guys are.
Actually, it’s pretty much nothing but bad guys.
Seen The Two Escobars?
“t Congress cant stop illegals from crossing our border from Mexico & Canada”
This is SO untrue. I have read recently that the government plans to punish hikers who wander over the boarder in the wiilderness between two border crossings 100 miles apart.
I am sure this makes the nation so much secure.
Uruguay about to go down hard.
TRENTON, N.J. – The European Union has approved a new chewable form of cholesterol blockbuster Lipitor for children 10 and up with high levels of bad cholesterol and triglycerides, a type of blood fat, Pfizer said Tuesday.
The approval includes children whose high blood fats are due to an inherited disease that causes extremely high cholesterol levels, familial hypercholesterolemia.
New York-based Pfizer Inc. won U.S. approval for Lipitor use in children 10 to 17 with that condition in 2002.
Lipitor is the world’s top-selling drug, with 2009 sales of about $13 billion, but its U.S. patent expires at the end of November 2011. Pfizer, the world’s biggest drugmaker, will quickly lose most Lipitor revenue once generic competition hits, so the company has been trying to boost sales where possible before then.
Pfizer said last fall that it plans to apply for a six-month extension of its patent in European countries, after doing studies of Lipitor in youngsters.
As in the United States, the European Union allows drug makers to seek an additional six months of patent protection for medications if they test them in children, who generally are excluded from the drug studies performed to win approval for a new medication.
Pfizer already won such an extension for its crucial U.S. patent on Lipitor.
For blockbuster drugs, those extensions can easily bring hundreds of millions of dollars in additional revenue. Normally, they are for drugs that are widely used by different age groups.
Until recently, cholesterol drugs have been primarily taken by adults with heart disease, but their use has expanded to younger patients as more obese, sedentary teenagers and adolescents develop heart disease and diabetes.
104.Shore Guy says:
July 6, 2010 at 2:25 pm
“t Congress cant stop illegals from crossing our border from Mexico & Canada”
This is SO untrue. I have read recently that the government plans to punish hikers who wander over the boarder in the wiilderness between two border crossings 100 miles apart.
I am sure this makes the nation so much secure
Actually, that was only about fining US citizens who like to walk. It had nothing to do with actual illegals, who don’t accept fines.
Confused 97
I image that Afghanistan has been some good training for border enforcement. How about we pull back a few battalions and drop them on the southern border as a new border enforcement division.
meant brigade, not battalion
Hi, great scoop on your website, I enjoyed reading it and will be back to read more. Always good to find news for real estate on the web. You learn something new everyday.
Hyde 98 – Already starting to happen:
http://www.northjersey.com/news/96543159_Tarnishing_Montclair_s__Mood_.html
108.Mr Hyde says:
July 6, 2010 at 2:37 pm
Confused 97
I image that Afghanistan has been some good training for border enforcement. How about we pull back a few battalions and drop them on the southern border as a new border enforcement division
The problem is this Government does not want to secure it’s borders. It just wants to make it’s citizens jump through artificial hoops at airports rather then keep the bad guys out. Reason, we no longer have an American Government. They are all Globalists. A Globalist is a World citizen who moves between countries sucking the life out of them for personal gain.
isnt the follow a little problem for montclair given its economic outlook?
It will take 20 years to repay the principal of the $9.6 million in school bonds that were permanently financed this month. On June 1, the council approved a repayment schedule that begins with a $25,000 payment next year and continues to grow until it reaches $847,000 in 2030.
Am i understanding the article correctly, that the annual payments increase to a maximum of an annual payment of 847,000 in 2030?
Confused 112
have you been hanging out with Al Gore?
MTC Res(94),
I know that crime is down in Montclair. I was at the town council meeting when Chief Sabagh presented the stats. I knew that violent crime was down, but I thought they said that burglary was up. Either way, that is not my issue and it was Grim who mentioned Montclair crime anyhow. What I do know is that the Police department is slotted for an increase of $450,000 in budget when the town is threatening to cut $700,000 from the library’s $1.9 million budget and then goes on to blame Chris Christie for making it impossible to “maintain public safety and our current quality of life” in seeking the waiver. If the police department is so successful in reducing crime, then why can’t we make a cut to their budget rather than continuing with the constant 3 to 4% increases year after year. Do you know how much the budget for that department has increased since 2000 since you are so savvy to their crime stats? I would love for you to quote those numbers.
So Montclair Rez…who are you?
114.Mr Hyde says:
July 6, 2010 at 2:50 pm
Confused 112
have you been hanging out with Al Gore
No, I don’t cheat on my spouse and last President I was comfortable with was Ike.
“Am i understanding the article correctly, that the annual payments increase to a maximum of an annual payment of 847,000 in 2030?”
That’s when the Montclair money trees we recently planted are expected to reach full fruit-bearing maturity.
Hyde 114 – And that’s just one little bond. Cost of the new school is actually between $35 & $40M. So there’s possibly another $30 million just for the school that needs to be permanently financed.
We have $230 million in debt. Much of that still needs to be permanently financed too. Currently we have the equivalent of a low interest I/O and we are legally obligated to permanently bond a lot of it within the next few years.
re illagal parasites:
NJ could close the budget cap almost totally by stopping funding illegals.
(in millions)
Budget cap in NJ: $4,400
Cost of funding for illegals in NJ: $3,478
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/Cost_Study_2010_Budget_Gaps_vs_Costs.pdf
But then who would mow your lawn Jamil or flip your burgers?
Assembly Speaker says she will not block property tax deal reached between Gov. Christie, Sen. Sweeney
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/07/assembly_speaker_sheila_oliver.html
re: #118 – I would be more worried about the pension obligations than the bonds. Right now neither the State of the cities are anywhere near fully funding those obligations. 47 billion official estimate underfunded and unofficially 173 billion.
In a worst-case scenario, the state Public Employee Retirement System could run out of money in 2013, followed by the other four State managed plans in subsequent years.
Here is the private report from George Mason University.
http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/publication/WP1031-%20NJ%20Pensions.pdf
re # – 121 – The TAX cap will not save NJ.
Quote
“lower the cap further and only allow municipalities to exceed it for costs from health insurance, pensions, debt service payments and states of emergency. If a town wants to raise taxes above the cap in other circumstances, voters would have to approve it by referendum with a bare majority — 50 percent plus one vote”
No way to cap pension bennies and bonding.
Yup. It’s still a leaky (BP?) cap.
Anyone watching the shiny market today?
Great goal by the Dutch sniper. Not a bad response by the Uraguayan who has been impressing me since the start of the tourney (Forlan).
In other news, gold continues to be battered senseless. Wake me up when it’s 3 digits.
125, looks like many commodities have been getting wacked. don’t know if it is a significant development though.
lower the cap further and only allow municipalities to exceed it for costs from health insurance, pensions, debt service payments
The main problem of all municipalities is covering payments for health insurance, pensions, debt service payments.
What good is the cap? Another BS!!
yo’me 129 – Christie Whitman shopping at the big and tall man shop. YAWN.
NEWARK, N.J. — Fired Seton Hall basketball coach Bobby Gonzalez has been arrested on suspicion of shoplifting at a New Jersey mall.
Millburn police say the 47-year-old Gonzalez was arrested Monday after reporting to police headquarters and was charged with shoplifting and criminal mischief.
He is accused of taking a $1,400 men’s satchel from the Polo Ralph Lauren store in the Short Hills Mall on June 29.
Gonzalez, who was fired March 17, was not immediately available for comment.
Gerald Krovatin is representing Gonzalez in a lawsuit over his dismissal. He did not return a telephone call from The Associated Press seeking comment.
A spokeswoman for the Essex County prosecutor’s office says the shoplifting charge is a third-degree offense punishable by up to five years in jail.
We have debated KKRs IPO since 2007. Anyone dipping their toes in the water on this one?
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. said Tuesday that its shares will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange on July 15 under the ticker symbol “KKR.” The company said separately that founding partners Henry Kravis and George Roberts will each own about 13% of the financial firm, valued at about $1.6 billion, after the listing.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/kkr-to-start-trading-on-nyse-on-july-15-2010-07-06-1511340
(131)-
Unsafe at any speed. The original purveyors of financial poison.
re: 130 – jail time for a man bag?
http://www.ralphlauren.com/product/index.jsp?productId=3858188&cp=1760781.3385585&SMR=1&ab=ln_men_features_featuredaccessories&parentPage=family
38.Juice Box says:
July 6, 2010 at 9:47 am
Who has a mortgage refi contact?
doom is the landlord of a shop
Juice:
I know a no-nonsense broker as well. Carl Nielson – Phone: 973-785-9400
Cell Phone: 973-865-3337
On our refi, the initial price quoted was correct to the penny on the day we closed (which is how it should be).
Tell him I sent you there if you do decide to go with him. Guy is really straightforward.
(115) Libtard:
Yes, I know that it was Grim who mentioned crime; that’s why I started my post with “(23) Grim:”. I was addressing a very particular point in his post.
I don’t know the answer to your question regarding the increase in the police department’s budget since 2000. Looking over your posts, I can see that you are concerned about the town’s budget, so I’m guessing that you can tell me the answer off the top of your head. I’ll be grateful (seriously) to hear the answer.
Not sure why it matters who I am. Can you explain why I need to identify myself?
Whent the smartest guys in the room are selling I ain’t buying
Juice Box says:
July 6, 2010 at 4:24 pm
We have debated KKRs IPO since 2007. Anyone dipping their toes in the water on this one?
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. said Tuesday that its shares will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange on July 15 under the ticker symbol “KKR.” The company said separately that founding partners Henry Kravis and George Roberts will each own about 13% of the financial firm, valued at about $1.6 billion, after the listing.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/kkr-to-start-trading-on-nyse-on-july-15-2010-07-06-1511340
As a professional bond investor, I will say point blank that the linked article is completely biased and inaccurate.
While the state of NJ affects Montclair’s rating, the downgrade is absolutely a commentary on Montclair.
Further dropping to Aa3 is disasterous. Even though it is “four notches below the best rating”…in this kind of environment it may as well be junk. Also, given the financial resources of this town, there is no excuse for that kind of rating.
The town needs to get its house in order or A1 is on the radar (another notch downgrade)….and the spiral down will happen thereafter….
111.NJGator says:
July 6, 2010 at 2:42 pm
Hyde 98 – Already starting to happen:
http://www.northjersey.com/news/96543159_Tarnishing_Montclair_s__Mood_.html
Irvington is the same as the South Bronx.
The Garden State Parkway is the same as the Cross Bronx.
The highway wrecked the town.
Confused,
I was kidding.
At least we have pharma:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/07/business/global/07indiadrugside.html
Oops! Had, anyway.
MTC (136)-
It’s so Stu can target your house. :)
“Not sure why it matters who I am. Can you explain why I need to identify myself?”
chi (138)-
The best thing to happen to Montklair would be a BK.
Tesla = Hindenburg
Really need to get a “friends of njrer” recommendations list together.
I’ve been meaning to work on it for a while now.
From the Record:
Slow job growth keeping North Jersey office vacancies high
The economic recovery is still not generating enough jobs to fill up North Jersey’s empty office and industrial space, according to a new report from the commercial real estate brokerage Cushman & Wakefield.
“Employment drives demand for space,” said Ken McCarthy, managing director of New York-area research at Cushman & Wakefield. “Employment is not collapsing, but it’s not really growing in northern New Jersey yet.”
According to Cushman & Wakefield, 18.4 percent of Bergen County’s office space was vacant in the second quarter of 2010, up from 17.6 percent in the same period a year earlier. As a result, office landlords have had to trim asking rents, from $27.55 per square foot last year to $27.35 this year.
In Passaic County — a much smaller market for office space — the vacancy rate declined from 21.1 percent in the second quarter of 2009 to 17.7 percent this year.
Overall, McCarthy said, the North Jersey office market is stabilizing.
“We’re no longer seeing significant deterioration,” McCarthy said. “Rents are down a little bit, but not dramatically, and the vacancy rate has definitely stabilized.”
Vacancies in industrial space ranged from 9.4 percent in Passaic County to 11.7 percent in Bergen and 15.7 percent in Morris in the second quarter of 2010.
From the Record, this one is a shocker. I’m sure this is a jaw dropper for anyone in the building/housing trades.
Mahwah plumbing distributor files for bankruptcy protection
Mahwah-based Ridgewood Corp., an 88-year-old, family-owned plumbing supplies distributor serving three states, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, saying revenue has fallen so much the company needs to be bought quickly to continue operating.
Company president Stuart Weinstein said in an affidavit that after thriving for decades, Ridgewood Corp. began experiencing substantial losses in late 2008 and 2009, “a result of the general economic decline and related issues.”
Company revenues fell from $71.7 million in 2006 to just under half that in 2009, with an operating loss of $2 million according to Weinstein’s affidavit. In March, the company went into default on a $20 million revolving loan with Sovereign Bank, court papers show.
A consultant hired by Ridgewood Corp. said the company has operating losses of $100,000 to $150,000 a week.
The company, which sells plumbing, heating and air conditioning products through more than a dozen stores and showrooms in New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania, including four in North Jersey, filed for protection July 2, according to court papers.
Yes, I know that it was Grim who mentioned crime; that’s why I started my post with “(23) Grim:”. I was addressing a very particular point in his post.
I stand corrected, my comment was largely based on anecdote. Do you have current statistics (late 2009, early 2010)?
grim (145)-
An entire section should be devoted to firearms and ammo.
‘”Really need to get a “friends of njrer” recommendations list together.
I’ve been meaning to work on it for a while now.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2010/07/06/signs-of-improvement-are-fleeting-for-mortgage-delinquencies/
[145] grim,
Well, you can add my law practice to the list.
I can be on the firearms and ammo part too, but compared to knife and Hyde, I am a rank amateur shot.
Chi 138 – Everything’s fine. Totally under control. Cue up the violins while the Titanic sinks in the most dignified manner possible.
Grim
Funny, they are on my “to call” list. My Central air packed up, so i need to get it replaced.
I had PSE&G into today on their Worry Free service plan. They say the compressor is gone, but That I have to replace all three parts, condenser, air handler and coils. I suppose they have to make money some how.
I’m looking just to buy the condenser myself and try and see if I get someone on a side job to evac the old unit and plumb and charge the new one.
So if there and HVAC engineers on that NJER list, let me know.
Nom,
Does that mean you are now flying solo?
re: Lohan
Two week death pool anyone?
I have a friend who dated an entourage member, apparently the whole crowd has inhaled most of her fortune.
re #153 – Fabius no way any self respecting licensed HVAC Joisey contractor will let you get away with saving money.
Doom,
For you. Google Accused Russian Spy’s Ex-Husband Leaks Her Nude Photos
it will take you to the article with the pics.
Fabius
I have a fair amount of experience with industrial scale HVAC ( on the engineering side) and at that scale they replace individual components all the time.
They may not want to replace the individual components because of state regulations regarding the release of refrigerants as well as potential health hazards if welding in the potential presence of refrigerants ( phosgene can result).
I have never done the hands on work, only the engineering side so i cant help you with that.
In short what you want is possible but may or may not be the easiest solution on the consumer level.
#158 Hyde. Residential is fairly simple, industrial becomes complex when you start getting into the likes of low pressure systems. The exams for auto and Residential refrigerant handling are fairly straight forward as is most of NATE. The biggest thing you can’t study for is the real-life installation experience and sizing.
In NJ the biggest barrier is the state regulations. It is over regulated and biased towards big players like utilities companies and their offshoots.
Hoot
Hiii. Fii……. Too hottttt
Jason says:
July 6, 2010 at 10:53 am
Grim is correct about the direction Montclair is heading. The town has massive debt, which has recently been downgraded.
I’d be interested in looking this up about my town. Did you find Montclair’s information online?
(148) Grim:
This article has the info on the first half of 2010:
http://www.northjersey.com/news/crime_courts/crime_courts_news/97043704_A_decent_first_half.html
Short version: 2010 so far is doing better than same period in 2009 (which was better than 2008).
(142) Final D:
Huh? “Target”?
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