From the NY Observer:
JPMorgan to Get Back in the Foreclosure Business
“We’re not evicting people who deserve to stay in their house,” JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said in mid-October on his company’s third-quarter earnings conference call. Now it appears as though the company is now willing to act on Dimon’s convictions. Reuters reports that the bank’s retail financial services chief, Charlie Scharf, told analysts today that the bank will be plowing forward on foreclosure proceedings in the next few weeks.
Scharf said that JPMorgan had stopped its foreclosure processes to review paperwork on some 127,000 loans in 40 states, and after implementing some new foreclosure procedures is now set to resume repossessions of homes from delinquent borrowers.
On the Oct. 13 earnings call, JPMorgan acknowledged that employees charged with signing mortgage affidavits had not always reviewed the underlying loans governing the documents. The company nevertheless expressed confidence in its procedures, despite a joint investigation into the matter by attorneys general hailing from all 50 states in the union. “Maybe we will have to pay penalties from the AGs eventually, but we think we should just continue” he said.
Frist!
drat! beat me to it!
sl
Volcker: Fed bond plan won’t do much to boost econ
Former Fed Chairman Volcker says bond buying plan won’t do much to boost US economy
Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker listens to a question during a press conference in Seoul, South Korea, Friday, Nov. 5, 2010. Volcker said that the U.S. central bank’s plan to buy hundreds of billions of dollars in government bonds probably won’t do much to boost the economic recovery.(AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)
Kelly Olsen, AP Business Writer, On Friday November 5, 2010, 2:58 am EDT
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker says the U.S. central bank’s plan to buy hundreds of billions of dollars in government bonds probably won’t do much to boost the economic recovery.
The Fed announced Wednesday that it would purchase $600 billion in Treasurys, aiming to lower long-term interest rates in an effort to spur spending and ultimately lower the U.S. unemployment rate, currently at 9.6 percent. The move comes on the heels of previous purchases of $1.7 trillion in mortgage and Treasury bonds.
Volcker told a business audience in Seoul that the Fed’s bond plan is obviously an attempt to spur the U.S. economy but “is not the kind of action that’s likely to change the general picture that I’ve described as slow and labored recovery over a period of time.”
The Fed’s move has caused worries in South Korea and other emerging markets in Asia. Those governments fear that lower interest rates in the U.S. will further push investors to seek higher returns overseas and that this tide of money will drive up their currencies and destabilize their markets.
Volcker served as Fed chief from 1979 until 1987 under presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan and is currently chairman of President Barack Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. He also warned that the U.S. won’t find its way out of the economic doldrums through over-stimulation.
“The thought that you can create a prosperous economy by inflating is an illusion, in my judgment,” he told reporters after his speech. “And we should never forget that. I thought we’d learned that lesson and I hope we continue to learn that lesson.”
The Fed faces a dilemma in balancing the aim of boosting the economy now while avoiding fears of a future jump in inflation due to the monetary stimulus, said Volcker, who as central bank chairman hiked interest rates aggressively to tame inflation.
“The influence of this kind of action on longer term interest rates, in particular, is ambiguous because the immediate impact of buying bonds ought to be to drive bond prices up and interest rates down,” he said. “But if people get concerned about longer run inflationary impacts, the effects go in the other direction.”
In theory, the Fed’s action is expected to lower interest rates because bond prices and interest rates — also known as yields — move in opposite directions. The yield is the fixed amount of annual interest paid to the owner of the bond expressed as a percentage of the bond price, so the extra demand created by the Fed’s purchases should push bond prices up and lower the yield.
But when investors fear inflation will be higher in the future they demand that bonds pay a higher interest rate to protect their investment from the value-eroding effects of inflation
In U.S., 14% Rely on Food Stamps.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/11/04/some-14-of-us-uses-food-stamps/
And now thanks to Bergabe those food stamps will buy even less; which of course will “help” the economy.
A Growing Gulf
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2010/11/a-growing-gulf.html
“As I see it, that gap stems from one of two things: either ADP is not doing as good a job as Washington is of counting payrolls, or the official statistics are painting a picture of the labor market that is far rosier than the reality on the ground (which, as it stands now, is already pretty dismal).
Hmm. I wonder which is the correct answer?”
How will our gubmint wage war against us today?
Burn it down. Burn the mf’er down to the ground!!!!
“The thought that you can create a prosperous economy by inflating is an illusion, in my judgment,” he told reporters after his speech. “And we should never forget that. I thought we’d learned that lesson and I hope we continue to learn that lesson.”
Confused [3],
Tall Paul is the man. Nuff said.
Worlds CB’s are saying Fcuk you to Bergabe; South Korea, Brazil, Australia, China, BOE, ECB, etc… This will not end pretty.
Wake me up if Tall Paul ever comes back for act 2. I’ll be buying up as much good faith and credit as I can.
Jim Rodgers agrees with Tall Paul and the rest of the world;
“Dr. Bernanke unfortunately does not understand economics, he does not understand currencies, he does not understand finance,” Rogers, 68, said in a lecture at Oxford University’s Balliol College yesterday. “All he understands is printing money.”
“Debasing your currency has never worked,” Rogers said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-04/bernanke-doesn-t-understand-economics-investor-jim-rogers-tells-oxford.html
Dimon: judge, jury, executioner. The brazen confidence that there will be no blowback on JPM is what’s really scary.
“We’re not evicting people who deserve to stay in their house,” JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said in mid-October on his company’s third-quarter earnings conference call.”
BC (7)-
Funny that it’s not Eraserhead who gets sent to face the wrath of the foreign CBs who are now feeling the effects of our beggar thy neighbor/bugger the dollar policy.
It also seems like Tall Paul has basically washed his hands of any responsibility for this madness.
I only hope he lives long enough to help clean up the mess after the economy implodes.
re-post from late last night:
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/11/04/some-14-of-us-uses-food-stamps/
Food stamp recipients ticked up in August, children consumed millions of free lunches and nearly five million low-income mothers tapped into a government nutrition program for women and young children.
Some 42,389,619 Americans received food stamps in August, a 17% rise from the same time a year ago, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which tracks the data. That number is up 58.5% from August 2007, before the recession began.
By population, Washington, D.C. had the largest share of residents receiving food stamps: More than a fifth, 21.1%, of its residents collected assistance in August. Washington was followed by Mississippi, where 20.1% of residents received food stamps, and Tennessee, where 20% tapped into the government nutrition program.
Well I thought there’s be a sell off but with this Bergabe guy I’ll need to wait six more months.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – The labor market showed signed of improvement in October, data from the Labor Department showed Friday. Total non-farm payrolls rose by 151,000 in October, higher than the 70,000 gain expected by Wall Street economists. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.6% for the third straight month. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to rise to 9.7%. The payrolls count in August and September was revised higher by a cumulative 110,000. Payrolls fell a revised 1,000 in August and by 41,000 in September. There were strong upward revisions to job creation in the past two months. Average hourly earnings increased 5 cents, or 0.2% to $22.73. Economists had been expecting a 0.2% gain. Earnings are up 1.7% in the past year. The average workweek rose 6 minutes to 34.3 hours.
Federal authorities have arrested 34 suspected illegal immigrants who’ve been attending a flight school in Stow, Mass., The Boston Globe reported. Strict security controls put into place after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks ban illegal immigrants from taking flight lessons and require background checks on all foreigners training to fly in the United States.
Thiago DeJesus, the owner of the TJ Aviation Flight Academy at Minute Man Air Field near Boston, was among those arrested in the sting. A Brazilian immigrant and licensed pilot, DeJesus was charged in July with being in the U.S. illegally, but continued to give flying lessons until this week. Although DeJesus denies being in the states illegally, he is scheduled for a deportation hearing in February.
All of the arrested students were Brazilian nationals who were taking classes to learn to fly small single-engine planes, WCVB-TV reported. Officials at the Transportation Security Administration and the Federal Aviation Administration could not explain why the students had received federal clearance to take classes and obtain pilot’s licenses.
Are you buying into the GM IPO with that screen name?
1970 chevelle convertible says:
November 5, 2010 at 8:29 am
You certainly deserve a round of applause for your post and more specifically, your blog in general. Very high quality material
18 Confused Drug mules?
BOJ cops to buying stocks and RE as part of their stimulus.
How many days before Bergabe gets the grand idea to do the same?
We are so fcuked…
Odom [21],
Fedco has been targeting stock prices. In addition to this, they already own empty malls and movie theatres. Just a pristine balance sheet.
Funny. I did not hear the people on CNBC talk about this:
The inverse silver lining to today’s jobs report that will be lost in the shuffle of what is perceived as a good NFP (despite consistent initial jobless claims of around 450K, which means that either there is a massive data error, or the rate of job creation has somehow surged) is that labor force participation has now dropped to the lowest rate it has been since 1984, at 64.5%. Assuming a reversion to the long-term average participation rate of 66%, means that the civilian labor force is in reality 157.4 million as opposed to the disclosed 153.9 million, a delta of 3.5 million currently unaccounted for. Maybe someone can ask the president during his imminent press conference what happens to the unemployed population, which would have been 18.3 if this labor force delta was incorporated, resulting in an unemployment rate of 11.6%.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/labor-force-participation-rate-drop-25-year-low-645
Melt-UP time!!!! Big Ben is saying don’t buy treasuries, I got your back in Corporate Bonds and Stocks. However, QE2 has put extreme downward pressure on Corporate Bond yields, Coke yesterday issued a bond yesterday at par with a .075 Coupon, yep 3/4 of one percent yield, A 10K Coke bonds pays $75 a year in interest income.
What this is causing is a mad rush for companies to call any existing callable bonds, I got called out on Denny’s 10% coupon, Stoneridge 11.5% coupon and a Ford Motor Credit Coupon of 6.85% in last few days.
Companies debt servicing costs are falling like a brick, Companies are issuing more bonds then they need cash for as they perceive this as a once in a lifetime opportunity for current treasurer to lock in super low rates. They may do 200 Million new issue to pay off old 100 Million issue and just add to cash. This means companies can’t sit on huge amounts of cash as near zero interest for long they must put it to work, hiring, new equipment, mergers, purchases, growing business or stockholder will be mad when they see that huge wad of cash sitting there doing nothing.
Now people like me getting called out of high coupon bonds are puking when we see we only have super low money markets, superlow CDs, superlow, munis and superlow investment grade or super lower higher rated junk bonds to re-invest in. Plus us coupon clippers want yield and appreciation. Well, we go to risker Junk, perf stock or equities with out cash, there fore driving these prices up and therefore making companies seeing rising stock prices more confident to spend there cash. We also go on vacations, buy new cars, houses etc with are bond money being paid out rapidly in calls as we don’t want to reinvest at near zero. What is point. I felt guilty buying anything in 2009 when I had Citi Bonds at 16%, Gmac Bonds at 27% and Munis at 6% tax free to put my money. Now less guilty about spending, 20K sitting at zero in bank is just burning a hole in my pocket and wants to get spent.
QE2 will be a big sucess in 2011, but once the party begins we all know how hard it is to stop it.
If Bergabe intendes to pave over the entire country except for Wall Street, he is using the correct approach.
23- How many of these new jobs pay what the worker used to get paid? What about benefits offered? I know of nobody (myself included) who has a comparable position to their former job in terms of financial parameters. I never hear this issue addressed by politicians or the media. Of course, why would they?
# 24 JJ re: “they must put it to work, hiring, new equipment, mergers, purchases, growing business”
No they don’t stock buybacks JJ, besides got DEMAND?
Time Warner is buying back $4 Billion, IBM $10 Billion, HP $10 Billion etc etc etc and let’s not forget about the banks!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-04/fed-said-to-prepare-guidelines-for-bank-dividend-boosts-jpmorgan-advances.html
#24
Great formula for the next bigger bubble.
JJ your outlook is very reflective of being a Bo Bo. See Brook’s NY Times column about it. By definition you are an elite so that is why your outlook is sunshine. Benny is your savior.
re #30 – JJ we think writes the quarterly reports for the banks, so he needs to keep up his sunny outlook when it’s really raining out and gloomy which keeps the barking dogs in his head at bay but he is definitely not A BOBO.
can’t find bo bo on the nytimes.com site.
what is it?
Scribe it’s a book BOBO’s in Paradise
ah, ok
thanks, Juice
Wake me up if Tall Paul ever comes back for act 2. I’ll be buying up as much good faith and credit as I can.
Wanta,
I’ll hire the naked Cowboy from Time Square and march down Broadway waiving our flag. Until then, I’m forced to take annual trips down under. Are your boots still in the closet?
bobo
A Korean dude who muds like a maniac and farts uncontrollably.
Make [35],
I’m starting to lace them up. Lowballs, no contingencies, fill or kill. The only problem, there are not many qualified sellers.
With QE2 in place,will the race to the bottom on currencies stop and let the US depreciate the dollar.The countries have 3 choices.Depreciate their currency along with the US $ and suffer severe inflation due to rising value of commodity or let their currency appreciate and take a better blow on rising prices but take a hit on their export.3.Keep buying our debt to keep the value of the dollar.
And China said the US will loose on this.
Nomad, issue is corporate bond funds have had a mad in-rush of cash from investors. lots of fund have to stay invested and have to put new money to work. There will be a delayed reaction from retail bond investors when they slowly see their returns falling. For now game on. Lots of funds have a ten year duration. rolling 10% of bonds from 7% yield to a 2% yield won’t be a problem right away, but eventually it will be.
Nomad says:
November 5, 2010 at 9:20 am
JJ – what are you going to do with the cash from the bonds called? Your not going 10 @ .75% and others won’t either. Who do these companies think they are going to re-issue to at virtually 0%?
QEII changed everyone’s focus from the slow moving train wreck, a rating agency thats not behind the curve!!!!!!!!!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fitch-puts-entire-us-residential-mortgage-servicer-space-negative-outlook-over-fraudclosure-
“I’m starting to lace them up”
Wanta,
After all, you and JJ may not to far apart.
Fourth bond I own that got called in a few days, retail investor and bond funds going to have a hard time replacing all these high coupon bonds.
QE2 is working. The days of buying bonds at par with big coupons has set sail. It is either join equity bull market or let it sit in almost nothing money market or re-roll in bonds in a bubble that is on its last legs and soon to burst.
Good news is unlike the equity bubble that burst and destroyed wealth the bonds being called is paying investors out at the peak, it is up to them not to stupidly re-invest in 1% coupon bonds looking for the bigger idiot.
I was going to think of buying my trade up house in 2011 or 2012 and had to liquidate in a year or so. Uncle Sam is going to do it for me.
MERCER INTL INC SR NT 9.25000% 02/15/2013
CUSIP 588056AH4
I give some credence to JJ on his outlook. Where was Lamar’s concerns when his industry was reaping the benefits of “hyer-inflation” including commission payments pegged to those rising prices. Next it will be someone else’s turn to reap those “rewards”?
Credit Suisse actually believes that the Fed’s fresh round of quantitative easing will prove far more successful than its numerous skeptics are forecasting.
The firm’s Andrew Garthwaite believes that if we see U.S. inflation expectations rise at a moderate rate, a yield curve with a sharp steepening point 2-3 years out, a strong rebound in auto sales, or just a stabilization of housing prices over the next year, then it will be clear that QE is working.
However… here are the warnings signs of QE’s failure:
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/credit-suisse-heres-how-youll-know-bernankes-qe2-has-failed-2010-11#ixzz14Q8SRzsl
Dimon to Deadbeats:
We’re going to foreclose and take that house back from you, and this time we REALLY mean it! Double super secret probation foreclosure for you!
Deadbeats respond thusly.
Chase with Wamu has a lot of homes on books in tri-state area, they need to foreclose and clear inventory. Good for them and also good to increase inventory in spring to avoid a spike in home prices cause by lower listings and low mortgage rates.
43 condo buyer
Lamar was here at the peak of the bubble and was warning of the impending housing doom then even though he was reaping the benefits!
I believe the coming foreclosures that are not in question (Robo Signer) are the ones they can make sure papers are in order and can be foreclosed. The robo signed ones are under investigation and on hold.
re #46- shadow inventory in NY Metro was somewhere around 6 + years…..
JJ [46],
Spike in prices as a result of low mortgage rates, at this time? You must have your head in the sand. We have had historic lows in mortgage rates over the last few years. How’s that been working? In case you missed the memo, it’s a new era. Better have a a large bag of cabbage.
Refi’s, that’s a different stoty. Then again, how many can refi if they are forced to bring 100-200K to the table.
story
Obama on election losses: Americans are still too dumb to understand me
“I think that, over the course of two years we were so busy and so focused on getting a bunch of stuff done that, we stopped paying attention to the fact that leadership isn’t just legislation. That it’s a matter of persuading people. … Making an argument that people can understand. I think that we haven’t always been successful at that. And I take personal responsibility for that.”
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2010/11/05/obama-acknowledges-failures-says-leadership-isnt-just-legislation/
S&P said more than once NY Metro Shadow inventory was somewhere around 103 months and that was before the foreclosure gate, robo-signer issues. That is 8.5 years
to clear on top of the 4+ years on sale now.
Get em while they are hot, GOT DEMAND?
Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank refused to disclose internal documents showing how Greece used derivatives to hide its government debt because of the “acute” risk of roiling markets, President Jean-Claude Trichet said.
BC,
As long as you are smart enough to pay your taxes, that is all he Dems care about. Fork over the dough mac.
To paraphrase the woman in this charming story:
“Someone is going to buy these Treasuries or were gonna slit their #@#%&*% throat.”
http://www.thefrisky.com/post/246-and-now-for-the-best-line-uttered-by-a-naked-criminal/?eref=RSS
Yeah, I’m with Bo Bo on this one.
When I was in HS, you did NOT want to be called a Bo Bo.
In other words
We’re lying to you for your own good, trust us! Besides, YOU CANT HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-05/ecb-rejects-request-for-files-on-greek-derivative-use-cites-acute-risks.html
But the main problem is the money flow. Urban areas are where I’m seeing the overhead jobs increasing. When companies are paying to get the crap work done, then all is getting better.
SC [58],
No need to release, it’s all God’s doing. It’s simply hide a debt via OTC derivatives. All played the same game.
Shore [56],
LMAO.
You can look but better not touch boy.
Wantan
You have mail
I am trapped in a starter home neighborhood next to a trade up neighborhood, every single nice 4 bedroom trade up house in the nice neighborhood sells like hotcakes. Low rates and a huge run up in stocks and bonds has people who bought starter homes in 1996-2001 pre-bubble with lots of equity looking to move up, we can’t cause these houses are getting multiple bids and we don’t want to move just for sake of moving.
I don’t know many people with a mortgage or a car loan so re-financing is meaningless to me
Mr Wantanapolous says:
November 5, 2010 at 11:27 am
JJ [46],
Spike in prices as a result of low mortgage rates, at this time? You must have your head in the sand. We have had historic lows in mortgage rates over the last few years. How’s that been working? In case you missed the memo, it’s a new era. Better have a a large bag of cabbage.
Refi’s, that’s a different stoty. Then again, how many can refi if they are forced to bring 100-200K to the table.
JJ [63],
What else can I say besides BS.
http://www.rapidtrends.com/
Great Gold vs. Bonds article, brand new.
For any Stones fans, have a quick read of this before Mick starts firing off injunctions.
http://www.slate.com/id/2273611
Your own plastic to oil converter at home?
http://www.flixxy.com/convert-plastic-to-oil.htm?utm_source=Raoul%27s+TGIF+Special+Delivery&utm_campaign=62793d96ed-Sctch_JewiMoms_Walrus_mrkting_plastic_money11_4_10&utm_medium=email
Do you think you are the only one in tri-state area with money?
Mr Wantanapolous says:
November 5, 2010 at 12:25 pm
JJ [63],
What else can I say besides BS.
What’s the over/under for unexpectedly in 2011?
WASHINGTON, Nov 5 (Reuters) – Pending sales of previously
owned U.S. homes fell unexpectedly in September, a report
showed on Friday, and activity may remain volatile for months
as troubles with foreclosures disrupt the market.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0522379620101105
“Do you think you are the only one in tri-state area with money?”
JJ,
Wrong guy. I don’t have any $.
nein! nein! nein! nein! nein! nein! nein!
US Policy ‘Clueless’: German Finance Minister
Pumping more money into the economy will not solve the country’s problems, he said, adding that the world needed U.S. leadership that was currently lacking.
“With all due respect, U.S. policy is clueless,” Schaeuble said. “(The problem) is not a shortage of liquidity. It’s not that the Americans haven’t pumped enough liquidity into the market.”
Late on Thursday, Schaeuble said Germany would take up this point critically with the United States both bilaterally and at next week’s G20 summit of industrialised and emerging nations.
Aside from the G20, international economic coordination could prove nimbler in a smaller framework, Schaeuble said.
“The G11, a combination of the G7 (industrialized) and BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) could become an instrument with which we gain capability to act.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40023267
JJ,
I guess the paper pushers have dropped Montclair?
http://montclair.patch.com/articles/montclairs-realtors-expect-more-gloom-in-housing-market
The Germans are better at taking liquidity out of the markets as they just have to fire up their ovens.
#27 – Whine,
You make a great point on the jobs data. For years we’ve been focused on the headline data without looking at the internals. To the talking heads on TV a job is a job and that’s the end of the story, but for the people in the streets, a pharma research job is a good deal better than being a WMT greeter or server at the Olive Garden. However, at the BLS all jobs are created equal.
Most of the jobs this month – temp help, health care, retail, food service.
Happy days are here again.
Brian [74],
Don’t forget the big boost from birth/death. Our govt stats can turn a turd into filet mignon. Then again, GS helped Greece attempt to do the same.
JJ –
Why wouldn’t you have a mortgage given the after tax rate versus your opportunity cost?
Be interesting to know if Bernanke is related to the Rothschild’s. He certainly acts like one.
Easy, I had a small mortgage that originally I was going to do a refinance as my rate was 7% but most banks won’t do small mortgages and fees are high. Then they put my house in a flood zone and I need very expensive flood insurance if I had a mortgage
Plus my taxes are 9k a year, it is nice spending $750 a month on housing, my old rent on my apartment 20 years ago.
BlindJust says:
November 5, 2010 at 1:38 pm
JJ –
Why wouldn’t you have a mortgage given the after tax rate versus your opportunity cost?
OK then, so if QE2 sucks and I too belive it does, then for those of you who want to take the wheel of boat called the US Economy – what would you do to address current problems? And don’t give me any of the “lets shoot so and so stuff”, real answers – show us all your knowledge and don’t ask me what to do, I have no clue. I believe that the only way to learn is that when you are running too fast, and you fall and scrape your knee, it if hurts enough perhaps you will learn a lesson. If no, then I guess for you, pain does not hurt. (pun)
“Be interesting to know if Bernanke is related to the Rothschild’s. He certainly acts like one.”
Confused,
Bingo. He may/may not be related. That said, we know who pulls the strings.
Wanta (75) – Yeah, the birth/death model clearly causes a great deal of confusion and since the nonseasonal data goes into the black box we’re never totally clear on how much of an impact it has in any given month – today’s 61k wasn’t far from previous Octobers however.
But, when the SSA misses two fake W-2’s reporting $32 billion of income (out of a total of just 74 ultra high net income w-2’s), it doesn’t give us a lot of confidence in government data as vast and complex as the BLS employment report :)
Nomad [80],
Check the archives. It has been discussed ad nauseam.
In happier news, 1,000 people living in the tunnels under Las Vegas – http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1326187/Las-Vegas-tunnel-people-How-1-000-people-live-shimmering-strip.html – source is the daily mail so take it with a grain of salt.
I’m a first-time homebuyer. (None of my LBOs have been accepted yet.) I was wondering what is a fair amt. for the earnest money deposit to be held in escrow. I’ve heard anywhere from $100 to $5,000. Must I submit a pre-approval letter and financial info with my offer? I would like to go with NJM Mortgage that does not do pre-approval letters. Anyone have experience with NJM? Please let me know your thoughts.
Nomad
Note posts # 64 and #84. The thread in general covers said topic. There are many archived threads like it.
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/05/march-comp-killer-2/
80.
Nomad,
Heres my answer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8d0TOvo3CF8
Brian 84
What happens to those tunnel people the first time the area sees an unusual/ large rain?????
No seriously,
The ultimate battle will be when the system collapses lets call it 3 years from now.
The good side: Sound money issued by the US Treasury
The dark side: IMF and the SDR as world reserve currency.
If the dark side wins its time to break out the rifles. For real.
Clot et al
For anyone who remembers the ever entertaining Sue Adler fiasco, that linked thread covers part of it.
Nomad [80],
You are right, the only solution is extreme pain.
If you can’t locate in the archives, remind me again. Don’t have the time right now.
Fabius, Re 66, Thanks for the link to the article. Some interesting insights into Brian Jones that did not paint a flattering picture. A friend’s older sister went out with Jones for a while.
Free money, come and get it
JJ, when are we going to see you starring in a video like this at the new meadowlands stadium?
http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2010/11/04/lap-dance-at-the-cowboys-game-is-infinitely-more-interesting-than-the-football/
must be Riot Friday.
http://www.businessinsider.com/greece-photos-firefighters-clash-with-police-2010-11#ixzz14LKQqz8N
Riots in Ireland as well.
Riot police were called upon to tackle protesters yesterday in Dublin after they invaded the offices on the Department of Finance.
http://www.businessinsider.com/dublin-protest-video-2010-11
#92 nj escapee
I personally think it is a fake as there is no way Mick would use the term “grade school” but it is straight on the money as regards content.
Frogs Rioting too, blocking access to the airports again.
http://www.euronews.net/2010/11/04/more-strikes-over-pension-reforms-in-france/
Juice,
No riots here; McRib is back.
Want – Black Friday is around the corner there will be plenty of riots then.
Juice 100
Ahhhh the seasonal walmart riots as people trample one another to get the super discounted 400 inch plasma tv so that they can maximize their propaganda absorption.
<i.
3.12 Realization on defaulted mortgage loans CitiMortgage will use its best efforts, consistent with its customary servicing procedures, to foreclose upon or otherwise comparably convert the ownership of properties securing any mortgage loans that continue in default and as to which no satisfactory arrangements can be made for collection of delinquent payments pursuant to section 3.2. Consistent with the foregoing, CitiMortgage will use reasonable efforts to realize upon defaulted mortgage loans in a manner that will maximize the receipt of principal and interest by the certificate holders, taking into account, among other things, the timing of foreclosure proceedings.
If a deficiency action is available against the mortgagor or any other person, CitiMortgage may proceed for the deficiency. CitiMortgage may retain 25% of the net proceeds received from a mortgagor pursuant to a deficiency action as compensation for proceeding with the deficiency action.
http://boombustblog.com/reggie-middleton/2010/11/05/here-is-a-reason-why-mortgage-modifications-may-be-moving-so-slowly-the-servicer-gets-the-vig/
Too much cash, bubbles and hot potatoes
That’s not what happened last time. There was no recovery. But there was a huge rise in the stock market. That’s already happening again: the FTSE hit two-year high on Thursday. Why? Because the fact that the QE cash is used to buy bonds is by the by when it comes to the end effect. Whatever it buys, it puts cash into the market merry-go-round. Sell a bond to the Fed and you have cash, which you can use to buy another bond, perhaps from someone who then uses the money to buy a share, perhaps from someone who buys into an Asian market from someone who then buys a gold ETF. The money becomes a hot potato leaping from asset to asset and leaving a little bubble dust behind it at each stop. The economy doesn’t have to recover for QE to hit asset prices. No, all you need for that is liquidity.
Clot did you do this research…
Asante considers investing in wine as QE2 raises bubble fears
wallies (85)-
You’re tossing out lowballs with no pre-approval letters backing them?
You must be a m@sochist.
http://deadspin.com/5680796/front-row-lap-dance-at-the-cowboys-game
this is the link, that is a great video. I love it near end.
pre-approval letter are a joke. all you are proving is you don’t have enough money to buy the house. Anyone who needs a pre-approval letter I would never sell a house too.
SG (104)-
I have personally seen several people over the past 25 years clobbered by speculation in wine. Everyone forgets that there are more ways than one to liquidate the investment.
The real problem is that if you can discipline yourself to sticking to first growth Bordeaux in top vintages, you’ll probably do fine. Only thing is, many collectors can’t help dabbling in California Cabernet (mostly overpriced and doesn’t age well), Burgundy (a wine for drinkers, not re-sellers), Rhone wines (again, for drinkers), or Barolo and Barbaresco (nobody cares, unless it’s made by Gaja).
jj (107)-
Hate to disappoint, but imagine what the offer might be from the guy who wants to pay cash for your house.
Hint: many cash buyers look for sellers by stapling signs to telephone poles.
I have no interest in wine speculation.
To me, the ideal satisfying drink is a sort of evil sangria comprised of MD 20/20 (aka Mad Dog), grape Kool-Aid, Everclear pure grain alcohol, various fruit juices (natural or synthetic), topped by an amusing pousse-caffe of c0deine cough syrup.
It’s delightful straight-up or on the rocks.
It also sort of forces moderate consumption, as drinking more than 18-20 oz. can put you in a coma.
JJ –
Then you may lose a sale to someone with the means who simply opts for leverage. You will not likely know the wealth of the person submitting an offer. I personally never cared as long as they brought that check to closing.
Brian [82],
250,000 dropped out of the labor force in Oct. Like magic; addition by subtraction.
First of all both people I sold places to in my life took a mortgage. But both times it was non-contingent upon a mortgage. I actually could care less if they are getting a mortgage but I can print pre-approval letters on line. What does that mean.
Funny, how shoe boxes in junky neighborhoods ask for pre-approval letters, in good neighborhoods in one million dollar plus homes no one would ever dream of asking how much you make, how make, how much you putting down and are pre-approved.
I do notice though lots of good houses are listed by places like Daniel Gale who ask, where do you live, where did you grow up, where do you work, what do you do there, what did your wife used to work at, where did you go to school, where did you wife go to school where did your wife grow up and often ask you to bring the whole family so they get a look at how you are dressed and your car. If you are good RE you can work all those questions slowly into the one hour tour of a few houses.
I did however, throw up for fun a $950k cash offer on a 1.3 million dollar home recently, in that case realtor said I will do that type of low ball offer if you show me some statements and maybe owner would go for it. I doubt she would have even considered it with a pre-approval. An empty house with a mortgage and taxes on market a few months sometimes a cash offer, quick close owner is thinking BOOM I am saving 5k a month by unloading turkey quick. Once deal is signed nothing from stopping me from getting a mortgage, only catch sale is non-contingent upon mortgage so I am closing either way.
Lamar says:
November 5, 2010 at 3:44 pm
jj (107)-
Hate to disappoint, but imagine what the offer might be from the guy who wants to pay cash for your house.
Hint: many cash buyers look for sellers by stapling signs to telephone poles.
JB,
We discussed 2-3 years ago.
http://www.chinahush.com/2010/10/07/cant-afford-a-new-home-check-out-anhui-style-cargo-container-apartments/
MSNBC host Keith Olbermann was suspended indefinitely without pay for making political donations in violation of the channel’s policies.
“I became aware of Keith’s political contributions late last night,” Phil Griffin, president of MSNBC, said today in an e-mail. “Mindful of NBC News policy and standards, I have suspended him indefinitely without pay.”
Olbermann contributed the maximum $2,400 to three Democrats, Politico reported earlier. Two Arizona representatives, Raul Grijalva and Gabrielle Giffords, received payments on Oct. 28, the day Grijalva appeared on the show “Countdown with Keith Olbermann,” the website said. Olbermann also donated to Kentucky senate candidate Jack Conway, who ran unsuccessfully against Republican Rand Paul
JJ [108];
Someone throwing around $950k in cash should know that a purchase money mortgage is not the same as buying with cash and mortgaging later, which is a refi. Makes a difference in recourse states.
Confused [110],
Too bad Knoblauch didn’t hit him in the head, rather than his mother.
The real play that was always the right play was Silver. No one calls your Silver purchases. Furthermore, instead of buying a junk bond at 50 cents on the dollar, you would have been better off diving into a company like Silver Wheaton at 5 bucks a share.
I am not a deadbeat, I pay my bills. I would never default on a mortgage. I personally think we should shoot these people.
Anon E. Moose says:
November 5, 2010 at 4:36 pm
JJ [108];
Someone throwing around $950k in cash should know that a purchase money mortgage is not the same as buying with cash and mortgaging later, which is a refi. Makes a difference in recourse states.
If you’re sitting on 950K in good faith and credit federal reserve notes then you’re a moron.
??WTF?
101.JJ says:
November 5, 2010 at 3:36 pm
http://deadspin.com/5680796/front-row-lap-dance-at-the-cowboys-game
this is the link, that is a great video. I love it near end.
jj (108)-
Please pay my regards to 1962 and Don Draper this weekend.
Hey Pain (I think it was you),
A six-pointer walked through my backyard, not 15 feet from the house this morning.
Now for something different:
DES PERES, MO (KTVI-FOX2now.com) — A man dressed as Jesus was kicked out of a St. Louis area church Sunday. Police were even called to get in the middle of the spiritual showdown. “We’re called to be ambassadors for Jesus Christ, ambassadors should represent, and that’s what I do. I try to represent my Lord and savior Jesus Christ,” said Neal Thompson Monday night, wearing the same white robe and cross, and carrying the same staff he’s been using every Sunday for 22 years.
He dresses up like Jesus every week, going to a new church every week, he says, to spread his Christian message.
“He said ‘Take up your cross, your breastplate, and your staff and follow in Jesus Christ’s footsteps and wear a white robe to show your sincerity,'” he said. “That’s my job, to spread the word.”
He says he is questioned most weeks, but then welcomed. But when he tried to enter St. Paul’s Lutheran Church in Des Peres, he was not allowed in.
“One of the deacons saw me,” he said, “and when I went in the church he met me and he said, ‘Can I help you? What do you want?’ I said, ‘I want to go to church here today.’ And he said, ‘What do you believe in? Are you Christian? What religion are you?’ I said, ‘I’m a Christian.'”
Thompson said he was not allowed in the sanctuary. Church members told him he’d have to sit in the hallway.
“And I said, ‘Well this ain’t right, you guys ain’t treating me right.’ He said, ‘We’re gonna call the police.’ I said, ‘Well call them, I don’t care. Call them.’ So I sat down and the next thing I know four or five police showed up.”
The church secretary referred us to Des Peres police, who did not even write a report. They say Thompson wasn’t causing a scene, but they asked him to leave and he did, peacefully.
snip
http://www.fox2now.com/news/ktvi-man-dressed-as-jesus-kicked-out-church-110110,0,1407462.story
Counting points on a buck, for those interested:
http://mdc.mo.gov/hunting-trapping/regulations/deer-regulations/antler-point-restrictions-selected-counties-0
ANd there is this too, as size matters.
http://www.ehow.com/how_5875729_count-points-deer-antlers.html
Last
Housing bubble correction 2.o
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/7-charts-showing-a-10-to-15-percent-decline-in-home-prices-for-u-s-housing-in-2011/
Just heard from a guy I went to H.S. with, who has been in Pharma IT for 20+ years. He just got laid off by a large biotech in the Boston area. Real decent guy, not an a-hole bone in his body, and very smart.
He is interested in consulting. I asked for his CV and promised to circulate it here in Pharmaland. I don’t know thing #1 about IT, but if there are folks looking for consultants and can describe what they want, I can see if he and it match up.
Thanks in advance
Shore (119)-
What if God was one of us? Just a stranger on a bus, trying to make his way home?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4CRkpBGQzU
Than again, maybe someone should introduce the wandering Jesus to this handy calling card:
http://mrpistol.tripod.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/tec9.jpg
Now, the fun times are really getting started:
“Not even two full days have passed since the announcement of what will become the single biggest monetary stimulus/experiment in the history of the world (since anything that never ends is by definition “biggest”), and here come the fiscal aid panhandlers. In an email just sent out by the Derpatment of Labor, Hilda Solis has officially requested an extension of the EUC program which is expiring in November and which will leave 2 million unemployed Americans without insurance benefits after November (and 6 million by the end of next year). Obviously this plea for fiscal heroin will be granted: how else can the country that has now become a utopian experiment in socialist-fascist fusion, supposed to delude the world that 42 million Americans on food stamps are actually not going to benefit from Ben Bernake’s actions? And after all, if the DOL is denied, how else will the bankers defend themselves when 60 million cold and hungry Americans come knocking on their door, asking for a little of that $3+ trillion of Fed luvin’?”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/department-labor-comes-begging-hilda-solis-asks-extension-emergency-unemployment-compensatio
Odom [125],
We are worse than 3rd world. We have abused our powers and blown up the world. The masters will eventually present John Q with a new alternative, a currency backed by the new economy, with a mix of physicals. Unfortunately, those holding good faith will be offered .30/1.00 of the new currency. Sorry. 99.9% will not understand they have just been raped.
The headlines will start with “unforeseen”. Booyaa.
That was Odom #128
Nom #125,
Send me the resume.
Catching up on posts.
Still – I saw Bambis’ and their mother in your front yard at the end of the GTG. If the SHTF can I get a private land hunting permission slip from you … :*)
If you are getting gates, I have a good company in Paterson for wrought iron work, I’m not sure how good they are on automation. If you are going for electric gates be very careful that you get a warranty for winter working. We had a company put in gates that the cold oil viscosity could not cope with the NY/NJ winters. These gates worked fine in Arizona and Texas.
Martin Armstrong bullish on the Dow despite the talk of impending doom.
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/So%20You%20Thought%20Stocks%20Only%20Go%20Up%20in%20Boom%20Times%2010-31-2010.pdf
When this sh_t comes apart its going to be complete chaos.
BC (129)-
All that’s left now is a little of the ultra-violence, then tears for everyone.
al (132)-
Will be at Fort Dix next week for a soccer tournament.
Wonder if they’ll give me a little face time with Mr. Armstrong?
I’m guessing the answer is no.
#156 Nom (previous thread)
Interesting article. While I leave you a to comment on the US tax side of his equation, I think there are a lot of points he misses and a few he gets wrong.
One point that he hits home is that if you are an expat already living in another country this decision is a lot easier for you. Leaving the country cold turkey and cutting ties is an emotional disaster and a big mistake.
Hong Kong – I would agree that this was the case pre handover, but now the place is more reserved under the Chinese. There was a big stink with the natives trying to move to the UK before the handover and getting shafted. The Chinese will lock it down at some point and I don’t think you want to get caught there.
From the discussion on this blog, if you speak Spanish, is Argentina realistically on your list to bug out or live as an Expat?
There is a hierarchy of worldwide passports and I would put St Kitts on third tier.
I will throw you a bone. If you really want to get serious about this type of expat, look at Mauritius.
Gluteus, have you seen the HSBC TV ad pitching their help in setting up banking services for families leaving the US?
They make it seem like living abroad is as warm and cozy as a trip to Grandma’s house.
gluteus (135)-
My idea of emotional disaster is waking up here every morning. I’d friggin’ chase giant turtles in the Galapagos right now if I had the chance.
“Leaving the country cold turkey and cutting ties is an emotional disaster and a big mistake.”
#135 redux,
That queue at the embassies, is in a large part due to the amount of current visa holder having to book appointment for renewals/ applications etc. I have family that had to decamp to another country to get 5 appointments for the family to re-up here for another 3 years. You would be surprised what they make you leave the country to process the paperwork in a foreign embassy.
#136 Clot,
I have had the personal experience of how that company can F-up getting cash into this country.
#137 Clot
My point is that you look at the likes of Marc Rich busting to get back. He had to get a pardon to do it.
Homesickness is a b1tch
gluteus (139)-
I wouldn’t give HSBC a collection of toys culled from Happy Meals for safekeeping. Both the wifey and I got a bucketful of yuks watching their pathetic commercial.
However, that ad is indicative of something. And, that “something” is very disturbing.
135,
Fabius,
I think Uruguay is a much better option. Less crime, very fertile soil, stable government and its right next door to Argentina. Im simply looking at it from a retirement standpoint. I certainly wouldnt move before or during the crisis. Best to be around people you know and trust.
Lamar,
Fire some rounds off at the range down there. Nice public range for distance shooting and its cheap I here.
135.
Fabius,
Just read that statement about Mauritius. I actually have some extended family there. Beautiful place from what they showed me of it.
[130] Bob
Once I get it, I will forward it.
[135] fabius
As you suggested, I cannot fault the tax law. There was one point he made that I was curious about, and will check on, but it is minor. He may be right or wrong, but in the end, it would make no difference.
AS for cold turkey, I agree, but that is highly subjective. I always maintain that expatriation is not for everyone, and really for very few. For example, it makes no sense for me right now. So I won’t substitute my judgment (or yours) for his.
Re: HK. Probably. While this isn’t an old article, this is moving target territory. 12 years ago, so-called experts were touting Portugal. Again, I cannot fault him for selecting a target that may have been valid once and isn’t anymore. Besides, that’s his view and I never mentioned HK.
As for St. Kitts, there may be tiers in terms of universal acceptance, but if it is legit, it will suffice. As for Mauritius, well, that is a maybe. I’d have to consider it, and right now no one is paying me to do that. As for Canada, he was correct; I have looked at their programs and he described them accurately, including the tax regime.
[136] lamar,
I saw that ad tonight, and that was the first thing I thought of. I was going to post about it here, but you beat me to it.
It is subtle, in that it never suggests permanent taxpatriation, but the auto ads for SUVs never showed them escaping urban hordes either. It’s all about the takeaway.
No comment on the bank’s services. (Full disclosure–I use HSBC but not for any international banking yet).
“With nearly five job seekers for every job opening, many people will necessarily have to rely on the Unemployment Insurance system until the economy returns to pre-recession levels.
Interesting, the DOL wants unemployment extension until 2018.
I’m surprised that they haven’t thrown any Private or Public Sector employees under the bus for causing the current economic crisis? You would think they would sacrifice a few just to make it look like they are doing something.
[141] lamar
“that ad is indicative of something. And, that “something” is very disturbing.”
To me, the “disturbing” part is that expatriation is, or will be, substantial enough that banks think that spending ad money on it makes sense. That is indicative of significant capital flow out of the US.
However, to be fair, US expats (not renunciants) have a very hard time finding banking services abroad because of the US Govt. enforcement efforts. HSBC is undoubtedly touting its qualified intermediary status to target that market.
Of course, that could simply be the plausible cover story also.
I found lots of valuable information in this forum
Greetings to all
[url=http://najgraj.pl]Gry[/url]
AG [132],
When Blackstone invited the public to the table, the fat lady had sung. Now, GS, is selling the public 50 yr bonds. That’s the top, bonds are kaput. Why would anyone hit their offer? JJ? Fools.
They all invite you in, now try to leave.
Can we get MA to a GTG? Fascinating character!
nom: sounds as if your friend was caught in the same net as my buddy; Biogen Idec…yes? Exactly the same boat except he is a strategy guy; I think it is basically a scorched earth strategy by the new CEO to give the impression he is a big swinging dick
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
November 5, 2010 at 8:36 pm
Just heard from a guy I went to H.S. with, who has been in Pharma IT for 20+ years. He just got laid off by a large biotech in the Boston area. Real decent guy, not an a-hole bone in his body, and very smart.
He is interested in consulting. I asked for his CV and promised to circulate it here in Pharmaland. I don’t know thing #1 about IT, but if there are folks looking for consultants and can describe what they want, I can see if he and it match up.
Thanks in advance
HSBC is carrying a bigger short than JPM, silver. Watch the FED’s swap lines increase. After all, we can’t let the silver vigilantes take out the cohorts.
Thank the lord for placing all the bird brains in contra-party positions.
Silver.com will make Nasquack look like a walk in the park.
[151] chifi
Wasn’t biogen.
A particularly sunny morning for contemplation of our inevitable date with oblivion.
Just let its icy embrace engulf you…don’t fight it…
A particularly sunny morning for contemplation of our ….good fortune of magnificent mother earth; living & healthy family members; and dogs that don’t crap inside the house.
A particularly sunny morning for contemplation of our abundant supply of xan@x and espresso.
Sunny morning- feh
Yanked a nasty vine off the house last week-turned out it was poison ivy. Never had a reaction before but I am now covered with the stuff. I’m on my 3rd day of steroids and the thing is still spreading. Anybody have any remedies that worked for them?
From Itchy at the Shore
A particularly sunny morning for contemplation of why we still live in New Jersey when every time we travel, regardless of where we go, the grass appears much greener. This time it’s Austin Texas.
Nj coast: as someone who used to be immune to ivy, but now is deathly allergic. There is an OTC cream named Elocon that works wonders. To ward off the itches, take an anti-histamine such as Benadryl and Aveeno oatmeal cream or Eucerin. Lots of people will tell you to do stupid things, such as pouring bleach on it, but this can cause infection, so don’t. You have 8 days before the itch subsides, keep touching it and the itch will last longer and the rash will spread. I am an expert. Ask Gator sometime to tell you abut where I got it on our honeymoon sometime.
Elocon is behind the counter. My bad.
nom,
send me his resume, and I will see if my brother, who is an FDA reg guy at one of the big pharmas, can forward it, or give some suggestions on head hunters. they’re always calling him
rozrr@verizon.net
BFF!
* November 5, 2010:
1. PR-245-2010 Grandpoint Bank, Los Angeles, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Vietnamese American Bank, Westminster, California
2. PR-244-2010 Heritage Bank, Olympia, Washington, Assumes All of the Deposits of Pierce Commercial Bank, Tacoma, Washington
3. PR-243-2010 First California Bank, Westlake Village, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of Western Commercial Bank, Woodland Hills, California
4. PR-242-2010 Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company (M&T Bank), Buffalo, New York, Assumes All of the Deposits of K Bank, Randallstown, Maryland
I think the current monetary and fiscal policies are intended to avoid Euro/Greece style protests and demonstrations, sometimes violent. I suspect Americans are better armed than our European counterparts, and widespread riots are bad for business. From our leaders’ viewpoint, austerity measures will almost guarantee civil unrest now, whereas printing and borrowing will push problems down the road where there is at least the possibility of an economic miracle solving all our problems. Unfortunately, I believe the delay and pray method will ultimately result in the same outcome, only worse.
Wow!! Who would have ever guessed that K bank would go under :)
If you purchase a home, is there an immediate reassessment? Or do you have to keep paying taxes on the crazy high assessment until you can file a challenge in whatever month it is?
Also, if the latter, and they’re backlogged for X months (or years), can you get credited from the date of the original protest? I know a bit about the process if you already own, but I can’t find much info on the process if you purchase outside of the annual protest window.
Thanks!
Gold.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6A44W420101105
Gold’s record-breaking climb should continue for at least six months, corresponding to the planned duration of the Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus, according to a Reuters poll conducted on Thursday and Friday.
Two out of three respondents see gold prices topping out between $1,400 and $1,500 an ounce on an interim basis, with most analysts surveyed expecting prices to peak during the first or second quarter of next year.
Thirteen of the 20 analysts, traders and fund managers polled by Reuters said the price of bullion will remain in an uptrend well into the first half of 2011, after the Fed on Wednesday unleashed a program to buy $600 billion of government bonds in a new round of quantitative easing (QE).
QE2 is printing money,buying assets from banks to free up flow of money.This assets are later on sold to investors.Risk is if you can get your investment back.Assume we made money after selling the asset.The fed pays interest to the money printed and the capital destroyed(digital currency).Who do we really owe when we print money?Our trade deficit is still high indicating overvalued dollar.Foreign govt likes to buy our debt to prop up the value of the dollar.If they dont buy the debt we can print buy our own debt and depreciate the over valued dollar.Export can appreciate and cut the trade deficit. Foreign countries have 3 choices.Depreciate their currency with the dollar and suffer severe inflation due to the increasing value of commodity.2.They can let their currency appreciate and take a better blow of inflation.Downside their export will suffer.3.They can keep on buying our debt to prop up the dollar.Prepare for the consequence of a default.This is at least what I understand on this move.
risk is if you can’t get your investment back.
A widely-cited study by Gagnon and Ihrig (2004) of the amount of pass-through from currency devaluation to domestic inflation among a wide sample of industrialized nations (not just the US) was found to be about 0.2, meaning that for every 10% drop in the value of a given currency, long-term inflation would increase by about 2% (after taking the rise in import prices into account). Not ideal obviously, but at the same time it suggests a 50% drop in the value of the dollar will increase the long-term rate of inflation by only about 10% or so, which certainly isn’t the end of the world.
http://amateurassetallocator.com/2008/05/20/will-the-falling-dollar-cause-inflation/
It gets better, however. When the study set independent break points for each nation corresponding to the emergence of more stable and predictable monetary policy over the same sample, the same pass-through was estimated to be only about 0.05, meaning a 10% drop in the value of a given currency would increase inflation by only about 0.5%. In this case, even a seemingly catastrophic 80% drop in the value of the dollar would only increase inflation by about 4%. Of course, this estimate could be low and as we know, past returns are no guarantee of future results but even in the worst plausible scenario, inflation should be modest in global terms
Are we having fun yet?
Thanks Stu!
NJC,
The redness and itch is caused by histamine. The key to stopping it is stopping your body from over producing histamine.
Before taking any antihistamines, either internally or externally, I would check with your MD, or even the pharmacist, to see if they are contraindicated based on what you are already taking.
An old remedy, is brown soap. I was always into poison ivy/oak/sumac as a kid and had to wash with it often.
One caution, DO NOT TAKE A BATH. Bathing in a tub will cause it to spread.
Wanna watch free tv(LA Stations,Bloomberg,CNN International) on your computer,blackberry and i phone for free.
filmon.com
157.
Make sure its not poison sumac. Its far worse than poison ivy. Steroids should knock it out but the only other over the counter product that I found works is a product called “Ivy Dry.” Its extremely difficult to find in the stores anymore but it might be available online.
http://ivydry.com/
I think they repackaged the product.
166.
By suggesting that gold will top out in June 2011 is to suggest that the US government will default on its debt in June 2011. Its QE to infinity until it isnt and at that point we will be huddled in our basements crapping in adult diapers. The class action law suits have just begun.
” The complaint alleges that around June 2008, when JP Morgan acquired Bear Stearns, including Bear Stearns’ short positions in silver futures, JP Morgan and HSBC commenced a conspiracy to manipulate, and did manipulate, the market for silver futures and options contracts on COMEX. Specifically, the complaint alleges that around this time, JP Morgan and HSBC, pursuant to their conspiracy, acquired massive short positions on silver futures contracts in an effort to artificially depress the price of the silver futures market. The defendants realized substantial illegal profits in connection with their scheme, while investors who had no knowledge of the scheme, lost substantial amounts of money because of the defendants’ conduct.”
re #157 – That the goal is to remove the urushiol oil, and this usually takes no more than a few minutes using Zanfel. It can be found at CVS in etc.
http://www.zanfel.com/help/productfaq.html
Most people cant figure out why the people of Massachuesetts continue to vote pedophile Barney Frank into office. Heres another clue.
MA Suffolk District question 4.
Eighth Suffolk District Only:
Question 4: This Question Is Not Binding
Shall the state representative from this district be instructed to vote to amend the state constitution to allow Massachusetts voters, through a law enacted by initiative petition, to vote to delegate their powers concerning international affairs to a democratically elected legislative body of a global federal union of democratic nations?
Yes 1,480
No 1,960
Line up the bulldozers and trucks. Once we excavate Montclair and dump it into the Hudson we can start work on excavating Mass and dump it permanently into the sea.
Ivy…The soap only works when the oils from the plant are still on your body. The key is to not spread the oils once they are on you and this is where certain soaps work better than others. A bathtub is fine once you are certain that the oils have been cleaned off. A bathtub taken when the oils are fresh on your body is a recipe for disaster. Elocon is a steroid as well, but one which is applied to the skin. Good luck NJcoast. The worst part is that once you get it all over your body, it becomes much easier for you to get it again and it will always spread like wildfire. At least this is how it went with me. I now mow my lawn in long pants and long sleeves, plus gloves, regardless of how warm it is out. I am so susceptible now, it’s scary. I still get it at least once a year, but I just Elocon the sh1t out of every bump ASAP and it doesn’t spread.
Chimney guys are here, installing a liner, and I showed my ignorance of metallurgy when I decided to check up on them.
They are installing a stainless steel liner; I didn’t want them sneaking in cheaper aluminum, so I went up to them and held a magnet to the liner. It didn’t stick.
The liner is 316Ti stainless steel (right now Hyde is laughing his azz off). The guys explained that stainless isn’t magnetic, and that is how the scrap dealers check up on them.
I was suspicious so I googled it, and lo and behold, 316 stainless isn’t magnetic. D’OH!
BTW, I am using American Chimney, and so far, these guys have been very professional. They explained things to me, and made one very minor change to my ductwork that apparently wasn’t up to code, and explained why. And aside from not knowing 316Ti steel isn’t magnetic, everything they told me made sense from my research (and contradicted some things that other vendors tried to blow up my behind).
This was a reschedule day from when they were late (backed up at the supplier). For my trouble, they knocked off 10%. They were initially not the cheapest, but for the reasons above, I felt better dealing with them.
Will let you know how the finished product looks.
Wow Stu- great something for me to look forward to every year! Thanks all for your suggestions. I think my problem was that I didn’t know I was exposed and did not get the oil off of me. Also my two cats were with me so they brought in the oil as well. I’ve been walking around the house with a bottle of rubbing alcohol wiping everything down.
My gardner just told me there is poison ivy all over my property.
Time to move back to the beach !!
un mod?
WSJ
SMALL BUSINESS
NOVEMBER 6, 2010
The Perfect Stimulus: Bad Management
If no one had a hamster-brained sociopath for a boss, who would start new businesses?
By SCOTT ADAMS
One of my earliest childhood jobs involved shoveling manure at my uncle’s dairy farm in upstate New York. Things were going well until my uncle explained that no matter how well I performed, I would never be promoted to farmer. Or even cow. I had hit the manure ceiling.
tried to post the rest but it is crapping out….will try later…
#182 NJCoast
Not so fast! LOL
http://www.poison-ivy.org/html/beach1.htm
#186 Safe-
UGH. Now I’ll have to scour the beach before I sit down!
19 Iconic products we don’t manufacture anymore
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/19-iconic-products-that-america-doesnt-make-anymore-535569.html?tickers=f%2Cge%2Cmat%2CDELL%2CMOT%2Caapl%2Cbni
Hello everybody, hope to know eachother better in near future :)
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Hurtling toward inevitable doom.
As long as I have a chance to see Dimon, Blankfein, et al roasting over a bonfire, I’ll keep forging ahead.
Some Grade-A Keynesian idiocy, courtesy of Krugman:
“While we approach the topic of Paul Krugman with the same eagerness one approaches a clogged up, never cleaned, bathroom at a frat party that is about 50 years past its due date, (pretty much like Keynesianism) this one just put us over the top. In his latest pointless drivel on the economy, instead of reverting to his usual mode of praying to John Keynes, bitching at those who dare call for accountability and the punishment of all those, such as Krugman, responsible for what is now a $4 trillion taxpayer monetary bailout tab, and begging for trillions, then quadrillions, then quintillions, then an infinite amount of money, the Op-Ed writer has instead decided to start a mudslinging campaign against none other than Jim Rogers, the co-founder of George Soros’ Quantum Fund, who has been pretty much spot on with his calls for decades.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/krugman-dementia-alert-former-enron-consultant-says-jim-rogers-has-been-absolutely-wrong-abo
It is completely a pleasurable piece of writing. An content similar to this illustrates precisely how sincerely the style is actually understood by the resources.
WSJ
SMALL BUSINESS
NOVEMBER 6, 2010.The Perfect Stimulus: Bad Management
If no one had a hamster-brained sociopath for a boss, who would start new businesses?
By SCOTT ADAMS
One of my earliest childhood jobs involved shoveling manure at my uncle’s dairy farm in upstate New York. Things were going well until my uncle explained that no matter how well I performed, I would never be promoted to farmer. Or even cow. I had hit the manure ceiling.
I consider that experience my first economic stimulus package—the unwelcome realization that my current job was a dead end. While my classmates were building snowmen with carrot noses (mostly the girls) and carrot g-nitalia (mostly the boys), I started to do some serious career planning about how to get out of the fecal relocation profession and into the warm embrace of a loving corporation. I studied hard, and I earned money for college by mowing lawns, shoveling snow, shoveling even more manure, and (my personal favorite) shoveling frozen manure covered with snow. I saved my meager funds, and with the help of my parents, who both took extra jobs, plus a few scholarships, I clawed my way into college.
Years later, my dream came true. I got a job with a large bank, and I never again needed to shovel manure. Corporations use something called PowerPoint instead. Thanks to my farm training, I was so good at designing PowerPoint slides that my coworkers called me “The Natural.” Jaws dropped when I introduced my signature move: the frozen PowerPoint slide with snow on top.
In those days, I was a furious bundle of ambition and determination. The old-timers told me I had a “rocket strapped to my ass.” All I needed to do was get my “ticket punched.” It wasn’t long before I was able to enjoy my second economic stimulus package: bad management.
Though most of my immediate bosses were entirely reasonable and competent, the organization at large was riddled with hamster-brained sociopaths in leadership roles. Surely, I thought, this must be a problem that exists no place else on Earth. Otherwise we’d all be living in caves and holding long meetings on the feasibility of using sticks as stabby things.
One day, a position opened above me, and I was the most obvious candidate to fill it. My boss called me into her office and said she had some bad news. She explained that the media was giving our company a lot of heat because almost all of our managers and executives were white males. Promoting me, she explained, would only make things worse. I asked how long I might need to wait for all of this to blow over. My boss was vague, but she said the timeline involved smoothing out the effects of two centuries of corporate discrimination.
I decided to jump ship and go where my talent and hard work would be rewarded. I took a job at the local phone company and soon discovered, to my horror, that banking was not the only industry in the world managed by hamster-brained sociopaths. Once again, my immediate bosses were quite capable, but interacting with other departments was like being the last human in Zombieville and trying to buy groceries at dusk. Still, it was marginally better than shoveling manure, so I doubled down. I finished my MBA classes at night and distinguished myself as an up-and-comer.
One day my boss called me into his office and explained that the media was giving the phone company a lot of heat because almost all of the managers and executives were white males. So, he explained, promoting me would only make things worse. You might say that was the day that the “Dilbert” comic strip was born, although I had not yet drawn one. Let’s call it a tipping point. From that day on, I considered myself an entrepreneur. All I had to do was figure out what business I was in. The phone company was willing to pay for almost any sort of semi-relevant training or education that I was willing to endure. It was like an accidental school for entrepreneurs. From an economic viewpoint, I was in exactly the right place, with exactly the right amount of career discomfort.
I wasn’t suffering alone. Many of my co-workers already had active side businesses and ambitious expansion plans. The guy in the cubicle behind me was running a concert equipment rental business. Across from me was a guy running a computer tech support business. We had Amway dealers, Mary Kay sales people, inventors, authors and just about any other business you can imagine. That’s not counting all of the business plans in the incubation phase. I think we all understood that working in a cubicle and being managed by Satan’s learning-challenged little brother was not a recipe for happiness.
The way I describe it may sound pessimistic, but consider the alternative. Imagine a parallel universe where employees enjoy going to work. They feel empowered and fulfilled—so much so that they don’t care about the size of their paychecks and never want to leave their jobs. That’s exactly the sort of nightmare scenario that would destroy the economy. The last thing this world needs is a bunch of dopey-happy workers who can’t stop humming and grinning. Our system requires a continuous supply of highly capable people who are so disgruntled with their jobs that they are willing to chew off their own arms to escape their bosses. The economy needs hamster-brained sociopaths in management to drive down the opportunity cost of entrepreneurship. Luckily, we’re blessed with an ample supply.
To put it in plainer terms: The primary purpose of management is to kill any hope that staying in your current job will work out for you. That sort of hope is like gravel in the engine of progress. The economy needs workers who are fed up, desperate and willing to quit their jobs for something better. Remember, only quitters can be winners, because you can’t do something great until first you quit doing something that isn’t.
You see this same dynamic with countries. The United States is a nation founded by people who couldn’t stand the leaders of their old homelands. I’m no geneticist, but I suspect that the “screw it, I’m out of here” attitude can get passed on. We’re probably the most disgruntled, self-loathing, hard-to-satisfy people on Earth. It’s no wonder our GDP is awesome.
Israel is another perfect example. The entire nation is full of people who were displeased with their last situation. And Israel’s economy is one of the most vibrant in the world. If every Israeli became satisfied at once, they couldn’t keep the lights on for a week.
I have always assumed there’s a correlation between imagination and risk-taking. You wouldn’t leave an unpleasant but relatively safe situation unless you could imagine a better outcome. So the people who leave a company first tend to be the visionaries who can best imagine entrepreneurial success. The last wave of people who leave are usually excreted just before the door is chained. They didn’t imagine it would happen so soon. Bad management is how imagination gets wings.
—Scott Adams is the creator of ‘Dilbert.’
In those days, I was a furious bundle of ambition and determination. The old-timers told me I had a “rocket strapped to my ass.” All I needed to do was get my “ticket punched.” It wasn’t long before I was able to enjoy my second economic stimulus package: bad management.
Though most of my immediate bosses were entirely reasonable and competent, the organization at large was riddled with hamster-brained sociopaths in leadership roles. Surely, I thought, this must be a problem that exists no place else on Earth. Otherwise we’d all be living in caves and holding long meetings on the feasibility of using sticks as stabby things.
One day, a position opened above me, and I was the most obvious candidate to fill it. My boss called me into her office and said she had some bad news. She explained that the media was giving our company a lot of heat because almost all of our managers and executives were white males. Promoting me, she explained, would only make things worse. I asked how long I might need to wait for all of this to blow over. My boss was vague, but she said the timeline involved smoothing out the effects of two centuries of corporate discrimination.
I decided to jump ship and go where my talent and hard work would be rewarded. I took a job at the local phone company and soon discovered, to my horror, that banking was not the only industry in the world managed by hamster-brained sociopaths. Once again, my immediate bosses were quite capable, but interacting with other departments was like being the last human in Zombieville and trying to buy groceries at dusk. Still, it was marginally better than shoveling manure, so I doubled down. I finished my MBA classes at night and distinguished myself as an up-and-comer.
One day my boss called me into his office and explained that the media was giving the phone company a lot of heat because almost all of the managers and executives were white males. So, he explained, promoting me would only make things worse. You might say that was the day that the “Dilbert” comic strip was born, although I had not yet drawn one. Let’s call it a tipping point. From that day on, I considered myself an entrepreneur. All I had to do was figure out what business I was in. The phone company was willing to pay for almost any sort of semi-relevant training or education that I was willing to endure. It was like an accidental school for entrepreneurs. From an economic viewpoint, I was in exactly the right place, with exactly the right amount of career discomfort.
I wasn’t suffering alone. Many of my co-workers already had active side businesses and ambitious expansion plans. The guy in the cubicle behind me was running a concert equipment rental business. Across from me was a guy running a computer tech support business. We had Amway dealers, Mary Kay sales people, inventors, authors and just about any other business you can imagine. That’s not counting all of the business plans in the incubation phase. I think we all understood that working in a cubicle and being managed by Satan’s learning-challenged little brother was not a recipe for happiness.
The way I describe it may sound pessimistic, but consider the alternative. Imagine a parallel universe where employees enjoy going to work. They feel empowered and fulfilled—so much so that they don’t care about the size of their paychecks and never want to leave their jobs. That’s exactly the sort of nightmare scenario that would destroy the economy. The last thing this world needs is a bunch of dopey-happy workers who can’t stop humming and grinning. Our system requires a continuous supply of highly capable people who are so disgruntled with their jobs that they are willing to chew off their own arms to escape their bosses. The economy needs hamster-brained sociopaths in management to drive down the opportunity cost of entrepreneurship. Luckily, we’re blessed with an ample supply.
To put it in plainer terms: The primary purpose of management is to kill any hope that staying in your current job will work out for you. That sort of hope is like gravel in the engine of progress. The economy needs workers who are fed up, desperate and willing to quit their jobs for something better. Remember, only quitters can be winners, because you can’t do something great until first you quit doing something that isn’t.
You see this same dynamic with countries. The United States is a nation founded by people who couldn’t stand the leaders of their old homelands. I’m no geneticist, but I suspect that the “screw it, I’m out of here” attitude can get passed on. We’re probably the most disgruntled, self-loathing, hard-to-satisfy people on Earth. It’s no wonder our GDP is awesome.
Israel is another perfect example. The entire nation is full of people who were displeased with their last situation. And Israel’s economy is one of the most vibrant in the world. If every Israeli became satisfied at once, they couldn’t keep the lights on for a week.
I have always assumed there’s a correlation between imagination and risk-taking. You wouldn’t leave an unpleasant but relatively safe situation unless you could imagine a better outcome. So the people who leave a company first tend to be the visionaries who can best imagine entrepreneurial success. The last wave of people who leave are usually excreted just before the door is chained. They didn’t imagine it would happen so soon. Bad management is how imagination gets wings.
—Scott Adams is the creator of ‘Dilbert.’
Nom, where’s your pharmageek friend want to live and does he have data mgmt background? FYI, there are a lot of little guys cruising CL right now checking out prospects and he might want to post an availability in the DC/Rockville jobs.
Eye-popping piece of writing bro. This kind of is just a exceedingly nicely structured post, just the information and facts I was seeking for. Thank you
190: Clot,
We’re cut adrift
but still floating
I’m only hanging on
to watch you go down
– U2
The unwed mother rate is incredible accross all groups versus 1965.
Blacks struggle with 72 percent unwed mothers rate
By JESSE WASHINGTON, AP National Writer Jesse Washington, Ap National Writer – 58 mins ago
HOUSTON – One recent day at Dr. Natalie Carroll’s OB-GYN practice, located inside a low-income apartment complex tucked between a gas station and a freeway, 12 pregnant black women come for consultations. Some bring their children or their mothers. Only one brings a husband.
Things move slowly here. Women sit shoulder-to-shoulder in the narrow waiting room, sometimes for more than an hour. Carroll does not rush her mothers in and out. She wants her babies born as healthy as possible, so Carroll spends time talking to the mothers about how they should care for themselves, what she expects them to do — and why they need to get married.
Seventy-two percent of black babies are born to unmarried mothers today, according to government statistics. This number is inseparable from the work of Carroll, an obstetrician who has dedicated her 40-year career to helping black women.
“The girls don’t think they have to get married. I tell them children deserve a mama and a daddy. They really do,” Carroll says from behind the desk of her office, which has cushioned pink-and-green armchairs, bars on the windows, and a wooden “LOVE” carving between two African figurines. Diamonds circle Carroll’s ring finger.
As the issue of black unwed parenthood inches into public discourse, Carroll is among the few speaking boldly about it. And as a black woman who has brought thousands of babies into the world, who has sacrificed income to serve Houston’s poor, Carroll is among the few whom black women will actually listen to.
“A mama can’t give it all. And neither can a daddy, not by themselves,” Carroll says. “Part of the reason is because you can only give that which you have. A mother cannot give all that a man can give. A truly involved father figure offers more fullness to a child’s life.”
Statistics show just what that fullness means. Children of unmarried mothers of any race are more likely to perform poorly in school, go to prison, use drugs, be poor as adults, and have their own children out of wedlock.
The black community’s 72 percent rate eclipses that of most other groups: 17 percent of Asians, 29 percent of whites, 53 percent of Hispanics and 66 percent of Native Americans were born to unwed mothers in 2008, the most recent year for which government figures are available. The rate for the overall U.S. population was 41 percent.
This issue entered the public consciousness in 1965, when a now famous government report by future senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan described a “tangle of pathology” among blacks that fed a 24 percent black “illegitimacy” rate. The white rate then was 4 percent
An amazing Nompound alternative in Las Vegas:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1326187/Las-Vegas-tunnel-people-How-1-000-people-live-shimmering-strip.html
The tunnel people of Las Vegas: How 1,000 live in flooded labyrinth under Sin City’s shimmering strip
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 11:18 AM on 4th November 2010
Comments (170) Add to My Stories
Deep beneath Vegas’s glittering lights lies a sinister labyrinth inhabited by poisonous spiders and a man nicknamed The Troll who wields an iron bar.
But astonishingly, the 200 miles of flood tunnels are also home to 1,000 people who eke out a living in the strip’s dark underbelly.
snip
This is simply amazing. I am surprized the Democrats have not proposed this lunacy be adopted here:
The row over housing benefit has led to warnings of “social cleansing”. But can those on low incomes really have an entitlement to stay in expensive localities?
They are postcodes synonymous with wealth and aspiration; the kind of districts that attract estate agents, upmarket retail chains and endless TV property shows.
They are also the places that many low-income families call home.
snip
Or they could be private tenants claiming Local Housing Allowance (LHA) based on the local average market rates, rising as high as £2,000 a week for a five-bedroom house.
Whether they are claiming housing benefit because they are pensioners, low-waged, unemployed or facing long-term health problems, their presence in well-to-do districts might, to foreigners, seem incongruous in a country widely noted abroad for its preoccupation with class distinctions and social status
snip
In essence, the debate can be boiled down to a philosophical question: do the poor have the right to live in areas they could not otherwise afford?
Shaun Bailey is one government supporter who believes they do not.
Having grown up in a working class single-parent household in London’s North Kensington – a once-deprived area which has since become fashionable – the former Conservative candidate believes it is unfair that middle-income couples find themselves commuting from the capital’s outer reaches because of high housing costs while the poor have their rents in prime locations guaranteed.
“You can talk about your right to live in the community where you grew up, but where do you get the right to spend other people’s money? I’d love to live in Buckingham Palace but I can’t afford it,” he adds.
“The current system only suits private landlords, who do very well out of housing benefit, and the liberal left, who want poor people ghettoised in the inner cities for their votes.
“The flipside of having a right to stay somewhere is that people aren’t prepared to move around. The middle class have always been prepared to go all over the country to find work.”
It is a provocative position, but one which appears to enjoy public sympathy. A poll by YouGov for the Sunday Times at the end of October found that 72% of people supported the planned cap.
Such sentiments have been fuelled by well-publicised cases such as that of Abdi Nur, an unemployed bus conductor who decided he didn’t like his taxpayer-funded home in Kensal Rise, north London, and so signed a £2,000-a-week lease for a £2.1m townhouse in Notting Hill, and presented the local council with the bill.
snip
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-11674864
A government benefit of £2,000-a-week for a £2.1m townhouse in Notting Hill? I will move!
Fab, #131 (awhile ago…sorry -been busy trying to fix, organize, work and live…)
Re: hunting.
Gonna have to duke it out with hubby. He’s a hunter, too. And our town has a no-discharge ordinance so, no hunting ’round here… not even bow hunting! Can’t even practice in the yard, for God’s sake….
Hubby saw redtail hunting the river and we have a resident blue heron who is just wild to see!! When it flies over it looks like a pterodactyl.
sl
Coast, re: poison ivy
Great wealth of info on here… not much to add other than making sure you launder *all* linens, clothes and actually anything you may have touched (including car) as the oil will stick around for a long time as the real cause for spread.
Steroids are the mainstay. All of the antihistaminics will reduce itchiness: benadryl, zyrtec, allegra, etc. Pepcid helps some people.
Topical steroids, correctly ID’d by Libtard – will help too. Never use the high potency steroids on your face.
Finally – make sure that you are actually treating the right thing… Some severe mite infections (ie scabies) can mimic poison ivy – and steroids worsen them. You can get these from being outdoors as well as from human contacts.
Would you be comfortable with uploading (or emailing to grim to forward) an image? ie photobucket, etc?
sl
Fab, again – forgot!
Thankfully, the nosy busybody yenta is away for awhile. I have some time to research gates.
Hubby was the victim of a drop-in visit (just after the GTG) and after commenting that the clutter seemed improved, noted there was dirt on our foyer rug…..
Just a hopeless asshole. Meant to tell her that we had a really nice party with friends over and so sorry she wasn’t invited.
sl