From the Daily Record:
Some think NJ’s unemployment program is too generous
Speaking as a panelist before the state’s biggest business lobby last month, Assembly Republican Leader Alex DeCroce must have thought his opinion that the state’s unemployment benefits were too generous would resonate with the audience.
It may have. But soon after the New Jersey Business and Industry Association panel discussion ended, The Associated Press reported his comments to a wider audience, including his observation that jobless benefits “are too good for these people” and don’t provide enough incentive to return to work.
Senate President Stephen Sweeney, who shared the stage, fumed. And DeCroce the next day tried to apologize, if not to his Democratic colleagues, at least to unemployed workers.
“My comments were made to a gathering of business leaders and I wanted to convey the need to fix a system that is on the verge of collapse,” he said in a statement. “I wanted to emphasize that there are individuals who are gaming the system (and) contributing to its current state.”
That system is broken. For the third consecutive year, New Jersey likely won’t have enough money to pay benefits to jobless workers, forcing it to borrow from the federal government.
It leaves employers facing another premium increase. It leaves business and labor leaders to hash out ways to improve the unemployment system and keep their constituents satisfied. And it leaves observers hoping that the state will address the root of the problem: The recession and slow recovery have left thousands of people out of work for so long that their skills have become outdated.
“I think there was an implication (in DeCroce’s remarks) that people who collect unemployment have an entitlement mentality,” said John Sarno, president of the Employers Association of New Jersey, a Livingston-based organization that advises employers.
…
Workers who lose their jobs this year through no fault of their own are entitled to receive two-thirds of their wages, up to $598 a week. The top benefit fell from $600 last year because the state’s average wage in 2009, used to determine benefits, declined for the first time in 40 years.The money for jobless benefits comes from an unemployment trust fund financed both by taxes on employers and workers. The amount employers pay depends on how often their workers file claims. It ranges this year from .4 percent to 5.4 percent. Employees pay .38 percent. Employers and employees pay taxes on wages up to $29,600. So a worker who makes more than $29,600 will pay $113.22 for the year.
…
New Jersey’s insolvent unemployment trust fund is a product of its own making. Lawmakers from 1992 to 2006 diverted $4.6 billion from the fund to pay for other programs, leaving it on thin ice if the unemployment rate were to soar unexpectedly.The economy collapsed in late 2007, and the unemployment rate climbed from 4.5 percent in December 2007 to 10 percent two years later, a 33-year high. It was 9.2 percent in November, according to the most recent statistics.
The result: New Jersey in 2009 paid $3.2 billion in benefits and collected $1.9 billion in premiums. Last year, it paid $3.4 billion in benefits and collected $2.2 billion in premiums. Its cushion gone, the state borrowed $1.75 billion from the federal government the past two years to pay benefits, according to the Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
…
Christie in his proposal last Februrary to reform the unemployment system supported a $50-a-week cut in maximum weekly benefits. New Jersey last year had the fourth highest benefit — behind Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut, according to the National Employment Law Project, a worker advocacy group.
So true!
My neighbor collected 99 weeks & started work in the 100th week.
Does anyone put any kind of faith into surveys anymore?
From Gallup:
Americans Still See Buyer’s Market in Housing
A new Gallup poll shows that 67% of Americans feel now is a “good time” to buy a house — similar to the 72% of April 2010 and the 71% of April 2009. The findings, from a Gallup poll conducted Jan. 7-9, 2011, suggest Americans are holding on to perceptions of a buyer’s market despite the challenges of securing financing and observers’ concerns about the potential for a housing “double-dip.”
…
It should be noted that today’s perceptions that now is a good time to buy a house are based on significantly different housing market conditions than prevailed in 2003-2005. During that prior period, the timing was good to buy a home because 70% of Americans thought home prices were going higher, the housing finance system made financing relatively easy, and one could routinely sell one’s current home at a good profit.
…
In retrospect, the sharp decline in housing price expectations from 2007 to 2008 may have been a good indication that many Americans saw the now-infamous housing bubble forming in their local markets before many observers recognized it on the national scene. In this regard, Americans’ subdued expectations on whether local-market housing prices will increase this year might indicate that housing still has a way to go before it recovers.
Or does it have something to do with the fact that exactly 67% of Americans own homes? Is this just wishful thinking? I’m more interested in what the folks that don’t own homes are thinking.
ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) – Prisoners nationwide have bilked taxpayers out of $123 million in the last five years through phony tax refunds they applied for from their cells, according to four senators.
Sens. Charles Schumer of New York, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida said the Federal Bureau of Prisons and the Internal Revenue Service have failed to cooperate and comply with a 2008 law aimed at stopping the practice in federal and state prisons nationwide. Prisoners use their own names or the names of friends and associates to submit false claims to receive and cash refund checks.
“It is outrageous to think that convicted felons are able to fleece taxpayers from a jail cell,” Schumer told The Associated Press. He said the federal agencies’ “failure to share information has not only allowed this fraud to continue to occur, but has allowed it to more than double since 2004.”
IRS and Bureau of Prisons spokeswomen say they are working to end gaps in what is already substantial enforcement against the practice. But the IRS says congressional action is needed to require prisons to report their tax status to the Bureau of Prisons.
“We have the ability to put an end to this fraud and save taxpayers millions of dollars, but government bureaucracy has gotten in the way,” Klobuchar said. “It’s time for the IRS and the Bureau of Prisons to work together to stop felons from scamming the system.”
“Middle-class Ohioans who work hard and play by the rules shouldn’t foot the bill when convicted criminals commit tax fraud – from the very place they were locked up for committing a crime in the first place,” Brown said.
Nelson called it “prisoners ripping us off.”
The IRS and Bureau of Prisons say they’re already on the case.
“The IRS is very successful at detecting and stopping incorrect refunds, including criminal refund fraud, and prevents the vast majority of refunds from fraudulently going to inmates,” said IRS spokeswoman Christina A. D’Amico.
“Our systems provide special scrutiny to reviewing prisoner refunds, and we continue to increase our efforts,” she said.
Prisoners either file false returns in their names or file fraudulent tax returns with phony names and Social Security numbers often using accomplices outside prison to receive and cash refund checks.
But D’Amico said prisons aren’t required to provide all the needed tax information on prisoners.
“This information is provided by federal and state prison systems on a voluntary basis,” she said. “Federal law covering taxpayer privacy prevents the IRS from providing tax return information to state and local prison officials … without congressional action to require state and federal prisons to report the status of inmates to the IRS, there will be gaps.”
The senators disputed there are any remaining privacy obstacles beyond the 2008 Inmate Tax Fraud Prevention Act to overcome and said fear of lawsuits by prisoners is thwarting action. The senators threaten to hold hearings on the issue if the agencies don’t work out a way to stop the practice fast.
The issue was the topic of a recent Treasury Department inspector general report. It found refund fraud by prisoners “is increasing at a significant rate.” Overall, the report found that $123 million in fraudulent refunds were paid to prisoners from 2004 to 2009.
The analysis also found that 12 percent of prisoners in 2009 who filed had missing or inaccurate data, including Social Security numbers, questionable dates of birth. Much of the same data was found missing or inaccurate in a 2005 report.
According to the IRS, fraudulent tax returns filed by prisoners in the U.S. rose to almost 45,000 in 2009, up from 18,000 in 2004. Between 2004 and 2009, as much as $123 million more in fraudulent claims were paid to prisoners.
The senators were to release letters to the bureau and IRS on Sunday.
“If these two agencies fail to put corrective action in place immediately, then I intend to call for oversight hearings to compel them to,” Schumer said.
3.grim says:
January 17, 2011 at 6:03 am
Does anyone put any kind of faith into surveys anymore?
Hard to have faith in anything media sponsored anymore!
From the Star Ledger:
For jobless men, confidence fades and families suffer
Garry Giannone knows this might sound outdated, perhaps even politically incorrect — but being unemployed is a real blow to the male ego.
While his wife works full time as a municipal health officer, Giannone cleans, cooks and takes his teenage son to after-school practices. He doesn’t begrudge the household chores — but after three years of unemployment, he can’t help but wonder: Is he a failure?
“I feel like I’m letting my family down,” said Giannone, 53, of Bernards Township. “It’s not really widely accepted for a man to be out of work for this long.”
For Giannone and millions of other unemployed men in New Jersey and across the country, the most recent recession has been particularly devastating. During the last two years, the jobless rate for men has consistently surpassed that for women, peaking at 11.4 percent in October 2009, compared with 8.7 percent for women. That gap — which continued to hover around 2 percentage points last year — is the widest it’s been since the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking the data in 1948. Economists say more men are unemployed because of heavy losses in traditionally male-dominated industries like construction, manufacturing and finance.
Funny you say that grim
I am such the person. We sold our place in the city and I am now renting looking for a place to buy. My wife and I really like a particular house and want to make a deal however part of me wants the seller to reject the offer so I’ll have a few more months (or years) of freedom, no (rising)property taxes and no ball in chain(depreciating asset).
We’ll see.
Hey Grim, when you say 67% own homes, how many of those are in or will be in foreclosure in the next 6 mos and then what is the real “homeownership” # like?
re-post:
http://www.scribd.com/full/46988426?access_key=key-10cwxgj1ujnphk0dgsfe
Here is the updated nominal vs inflation-adjusted chart for NY/NJ Case Shiller Index.
The green line uses Shadow Stats CPI-U data, which is way higher than headline.
whipped (8)-
Ditch the wife. She will either get shot right away or just be dead weight when the fun begins.
When the ultra-violence gets going, traveling light will be the rule of the day.
toast (9)-
Right now in the US, there are 5 mm+ homes on which the borrower is delinquent 60 days or more.
“Shadowstats data is enlightening for many things, but it certainly overestimates CPI.”
Cobbler, yes Shadow Stats data seems aggressive to put it mildly. But apparently, they are using the same methods that BLS used in 1980 so maybe theyre onto something?
“It also raises the debate you an i had before regarding when the “real” bottom was in the 90′s bubble. Nominal trends say 91, while adjusted trends say 97/98.”
Ket, the same exact debate but the difference between real and nom are greater with larger inflation numbers.
Are you sure shiller’s chart only goes back to 1987? You might be thinking of 1887… http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/update-case-shiller-100-year-chart/
Damn. Somebody told me this was the Golden Globes fashion talk site.
For everyone on the board who’s been selling life insurance on Steve Jobs (aka getting long AAPL). Seems the board has just granted him a medical leave of absence. My best guess is that the leave will last roughly until the end of time:
“Jobs also says that he will continue as CEO and be involved in major strategic decisions for the company. As a reminder Apple accounts for about 20% of the Nasdaq. As a further reminder, the last time it was even rumored the COO was leaving, the stock tumbled $20 in the span of a few milliseconds. German listed Apple shares fall 1.8% following the news.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/apple-ceo-steve-jobs-says-board-has-granted-him-medical-leave-absence
Neanderthal
The Shadowstat adjusted data seems to show a floor around 170 on the index. The funny thing is that when that floor was hit in 83 and in 98 the median home price to median income ration was in the 2.5 – 3.0X range both times, and we are currently at that floor and still well above the those ratios……
neanderthal,
My comment from last night
What you chart also tells us, is that base dont he shadow stat data, housing has on average been a net losing proposition for the last 35 years. While some may have managed to time the peak/troughs perfectly most did not. On top of that the ever increasing carrying cost of housing just digs the hole deeper. While not a surprise to most on this blog, is certainly goes against commonly accepted RE dogma.
That is not to say that you should never buy a home, but it does say that it isn’t an investment unless you consider playing craps as investment. As clot and others on this blog have pointed out housing should be considered from a consumption point of view.
Neanderthal 15
Ket, the same exact debate but the difference between real and nom are greater with larger inflation numbers.
Are you sure shiller’s chart only goes back to 1987? You might be thinking of 1887…
Come on now Veto, you know better then that. You chart is labeled NY/Nj Metro area. The 1975 – 1987 data you are using is NATIONAL data, not the specific Case-Shiller NY Metro index.
Take look for yourself
http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff–p-us—-
The NY Metro area data doesnt start until 1975. The other possibility is that you are using the entire national data set and calling it NY metro. Either way its misleading.
Reg Middleton, claiming that Tyler Durden isn’t negative enough:
“About a week or so ago, I posed a controversial question, Is the US Government About to Forgive Mortgage Debt? Let’s Crowdsource Our Way Through a Scenario or Two! In that missive I warned that the recovery rate on many of the repossessed properties was not only at a historic low, but actually approaching zero, save a few blips from .gov bubble blowing and shenanigans by banks in the form of kicking cans down the road. I also said that the time may very well come when there may be no economic incentive for banks to foreclose on certain properties, and that pool of properties may grow larger than many could imagine. I know it is difficult for many to come to grips with this, but the math really ain’t that hard.
Even Tyler Durden, whose controversial ZeroHedge site I read and contribute to with a passion, is being too optimistic. Yeah, that’s right! You know things are bad when ZeroHedge is too optimistic! In his post “Quantifying The Full Impact Of Foreclosure Gate: Hundreds Of Billions To Start“, he assumes there WILL be something to foreclose upon. I assert that in increasingly more common instances, there will be no economic interest to foreclose upon. It is starting at the fringes and the margin, but it is moving closer to the center faster than many think. And the longer, and deeper “Fraudclosure” investigations continue, the closer and faster to the center it will get.
Well, since I penned this piece, new developments have arisen. In particular, the likelihood that banks will be set back even further as they face additional legal pressures and foreclosures are judicially rolled back and undone. See Less Than 24 Hours After My Warning Of Extensive Legal Risk In The Banking Industry, The Massachusetts Supreme Court Drops THE BOMB!
This is, of course, not even considering the fact that all of this investigating and shining the light in dark corners will reveal the true elephant in the room (and it is not hastily signed affidavits that can be quickly fixed) which is that many, if not most, high LTV mortgage originations were fraudulent to begin with. That means that not only would it not be cost effective to foreclose, but everybody and their momma will be scrambling to put the fraudulent loans back to the originating banks – see The Robo-Signing Mess Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg, Mortgage Putbacks Will Be the Harbinger of the Collapse of Big Banks that Will Dwarf 2008! for my realistic take on the situation and the expenses that it entails. Yes, the elusive recovery rate is going to be pushed that much lower. Long story short, bank expenses will skyrocket, along with efficiency ratios, which were already increasing to begin with at the same time housing sales economic activity and prices will drop and credit losses will spike. Oh, what fun we have in store.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/i-warned-banks-will-soon-be-forced-walk-away-homes…-guess-what
Neanderthal
The 100 year data set from shiller which you refer to uses the OFHEO NATIONAL data for the period of 1975 – 1986.
You are mixing and matching indexes. That doesn’t mean your chart is invalid, but you cant legitimately claim that the chart is all one index if you are using a composite of indexes and the different indexes are compiles using different methodologies.
‘You chart is labeled NY/Nj Metro area. The 1975 – 1987 data you are using is NATIONAL data’
Cat, I am not using case shiller’s 100 year chart to get nj data, i was just pointing out that case shiller goes back much further than 1987. I am using NJ data to come up with 1975-1987. But if you are hung up on the source of the 1975-1987 data, you are completely missing the entire analysis.
Also, there is a severe flaw in your price to income assumptions at post 18. You can’t do price to median income ratios when the prices are inflation adjusted and the median income nominal. If you make that adjustment, you will come up with different results.
When can we start talking about guns?
You can talk about my Looooove Gun!!
I collected unemployment once over 35 years ago and can remember them telling me if we find something or anything you must take it or risk losing the benefits. Those were the days of standing in line for your check.
State of New Jersey, Endowment Arm owns 1.875 mm shares of AAPL.
Just saying.
Neanderthal
I dont have access to the SHADOW Stats CPI data so i cannot reproduce the adjusted NY Metro area price chart. However, take a look at the following PDF.
http://www.scribd.com/full/47016860?access_key=key-wn1xemdyowvthmvwnsj
The price ratio follows the same pattern as the adjusted price trend, with the notable exception that it is still WAY above the previous floors of about 5.
What this ratio really tells us is the general buying capacity of the home buying population. The higher the relative value, the lower the buying capacity. You could construct a more detailed buying capacity trend buying running the ration relative to both income and debt loads, but i will leave that exercise to you. I have generated that trend before and it matches this basic ratio trend.
Assuming that incomes stay flat, then we would need about a 35% drop in home prices from their current levels to get back to the historical floor of 5. If incomes drop then we need an even larger drop in the associated home prices.
Posted this on yesterday’s feed since it was referencing the Natale family. Wanted to post here too since another one of them is a realtor with an incredible shady past including jail time. Actually, I have no idea if they are related but he should probably be avoided if you are selling/buying a home…
Wonder if they are all related this this Natale from Holmdel who went to jail for pleading guilty to a $40M hedge fund fraud…
http://independent.gmnews.com/news/2000-03-17/Front_page/f09.html
Oh, by the way, he’s now a realtor “FSBO Johnny”. I’m sure he’s on the up and up now…
http://www.fsbojohnny.com/
28- They don’t have the $$ to have enough staff at the UI offices in NJ to track people as diligently as they might like to. Heck, when I was out of work in 2009 I couldn’t get through on the phone lines so I had to drive to the local UI office instead. And, their on-line system is very antiquated, to say the least. You still do get to stand in line and it still is no fun at all.
Err it was the Federal Government that forced States to extend unemployment to 99 weeks, the state of-course had a rainy day fund but spent the money elsewhere so now the New Jersey program needs 2 Billion a year from the Federal Government to continue.
Much like Europe many of these folks will be permanently on the dole, in one form or another, if not unemployment then welfare is next. There are allot of unemployed who are not lazy bums, but there is just no work for them or they are marginally skilled. They are going to just have to lower their expectations and go work doing menial service jobs. There are supposedly 1/2 million illegal aliens here in NJ and over 1.5 million in NY. We could see more of a backlash against them if things don’t change here soon. During the Great Depression there was a Mexican Repatriation in the 1930s.
Sometimes History Rhymes, if the unemployment checks stop even the liberals will become less liberal..
neanderthal
I do think that the combining of indexes is very relevant. They use different methodologies that should produce similar result but may or may not do so in the real world. If you just want a rough visual trend then the difference is probably irrelevant, but if you want to start calculating numbers and trends from the data then you really do need a disclaimer.
http://www.keysnet.com/2011/01/16/299327/naked-tourist-disrupts-traffic.html
Neanderthal RE 30
NJAR has the 2010 median home price for NJ at abot $305K. If we were to bottom out on the price ration at about 5 and assuming we had flat incomes for the remainder of the corrective period then that 35% drop translates to a rough median home price target of about $198K.
Yes, I know you and many others on the blog will call me crazy for suggesting such a number, but then again many on this blog have been called crazy time and again only to be proven right. My caveat on this number is that i would target a median NJ home price of about 200K (in REAL ADJUSTED $$$) as the potential inflation we face could end up driving up nominal prices. There is also the consideration that if incomes fall then the target price would fall to stay in line with incomes.
It’s just like Social Security…they took our money, gave it away in tax cuts for the wealthy, and now say there is no money. And yet people are angry at unemployed people? What is wrong with this picture?
Debt 24.
When selecting your caliber be sure to include a mid weight lower cost caliber as well as a heavy caliber to ensure penetration. This is an important consideration in potential urban conflicts, as it prevents things like cars or standard home walls from providing effective cover for your adversary.
J
they took our money, gave it away in tax cuts for the wealthy
I see you drank some coolaid with your breakfast. Its not about rich V poor, its about citizens V government / citizens V corporations, really both the same thing.
j [37];
What’s wrong with your picture is the false and erroneous assumption that a tax cut, for the wealthy or anyone else, is a giveaway. The ‘wealthy’ that you demonize still pay far more than a proportional share of their income or wealth in taxes. Take off your red-colored glasses.
If you want to see a ‘giveaway’ start looking for the government checks, not receipts. In that regard, I don’t discriminate my contempt based on the wealth (or poverty) of the recipient.
I guess JJ isnt going to post here anymore…..
Staten Island Jets fan’s sledding celebration turns fatal
By JESSICA SIMEONE
A Nassau County man who decided to celebrate the Jets’ stunning upset of the New England Patriots yesterday by going sledding on his driveway was killed after he skidded into the street and was struck by an SUV, cops said.
Raymond Larsen, 46, had been watching the game in his home when he went outside around 8:50 p.m. with a plastic disc to use as a sled.
A police source said it’s believed he’d been drinking while watching the game.
After Larsen landed in the middle of the road, a 2006 Hyundai SUV ran him over.
He was rushed to North Shore University, where he died.
The driver stayed at the scene and no charges were filed.
Big frick’n deal, 67% of people think this is a good time to buy a house. This seems about the same percentage that believes in Big Foot and the solvencyof Social Security and, I suspect, is close to the percentage who thought it was a good idea to buy in 2007 with 3% down and at 6x income.
Moose – speaking specifically about Social Security he is somewhat correct, it was a pay go system until the Greenspan commission in the 1980s recommended SS tax increases which the rich do not pay for, top contribution is 102k today, hardly rich. The excess reserves or surplus which should be about 2.5 trillion today was put into US Treasuries and spent on all kinds of pork. Social Security excess taxes have also subsidized tax decreases for at least 25 years, without the Trust fund there would have had to be tax increases across the board for everyone over the years.
Juice [43];
Don’t blame today’s “rich” because boomer politicians robbed the piggy bank. Point in fact, they’ve already paid once, now you want them to pay again. Your observation about SS is precisely the point – the rich arent going to get paid benefits on salaries over $102k, so if they were taxes on it it would expose SS for what it is — old people welfare. Anyone born since 1980 who expects SS to be their entire retirement income deserves what they get.
On the tax side, far better that everyone pays something, from the lowest to the mostest, so everyone has a skin in the game.
Hey, just for fun lets look at some commercial RE.
500 Mt Pleasant Ave, Dover NJ
a 13996 SF strip mall built right next to the rockaway mall complex. Owned by PLAZA K REALTY-DOVER LLC and built in 2007. This property has been empty since construction. It has never had a single tenant. It is currently assessed at a value of 2.3 million with an annual tax bill of 43K ( about 3500/month).
http://maps.google.com/maps?oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&q=500+Mt+Pleasant+Ave+Dover,+NJ+07801&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=500+Mt+Pleasant+Ave,+Dover,+Morris,+New+Jersey+07801&gl=us&ll=40.903637,-74.567578&spn=0.007914,0.013797&z=16&layer=tc&cbll=40.903639,-74.567599&panoid=YQ6v0iMnxKTzhuZfzOqhwA&cbp=12,73.99,,0,3.04
Take a look at the chart at the bottom of the page
http://www.loopnet.com/Listing/16777544/500-Mount-Pleasant-Ave-Dover-NJ/
The county and state commercial lease rates are looking very rosy for “investors”.
re # 44 – Moose – not talking about blame game as well all know all roads lead to Washington DC with a stop off in Trenton.
Anyone born since 1980? Deserves what they get? Cuomon Moose most of the group you speak of deserve to be robbed because they were children and could not influence Washington DC like their parents did?
Tax increases are coming, in all likely hood history will Rhyme again just like it did after the Great Depression. The top tax rate shot up from 25% – 63% in 1932 and kept on rising until it hit 94% during the WWII and only really began dropping during the Regan Era when deficits did not matter.
Bend over and smile.
j,
In what sort of permanent state of confusion must one live to call the act of allowing someone to keep a portion more of what was theirs a giveaway? Wiggle back into the swamp, you leech.
FYI- people who pay taxes to the government are giving, people who receive funds from the government are taking. Last three years my family gave away about $500k to the government. In the new political vernacular, that was a $100k “gift” to me, because some looter decided that in their imaginary world where the “rich” paid their “fair share”, (which is always higher than whatever the current rate is) I should have paid $600k.
The modern-era tranfer-payment state is immorral and incredibly inefficient. It’s a maze of plumbing, extracting the lifeblood of some, and redirecting in to infusions of others. Most people are tapped and drained through multiple wounds, while others live entirely dependent on transfusions. There are millions of highly paid plumbers, and millions who secretly feed off the network. The whole system rests upon the immoral premise “to each according to their need, from each according to their ability”.
Juice [47];
Harsh, perhaps, but my ‘deserve what they get’ is not a statement of blame either. Just a recognition of reality. I don’t expect a dime from the SS ponzi when I turn 67 (or whetever the age will be by the time I get there), and have planned accordingly. I consider the money confiscated from my under the FICA banner is no less stolen and squandered than that confiscated under the “state” and “federal” lines.
Juice [47]; (post-mod)
Harsh, perhaps, but my ‘deserve what they get’ is not a statement of blame either. Just a recognition of reality. I don’t expect a dime from the SS p o n z i when I turn 67 (or whetever the age will be by the time I get there), and have planned accordingly. I consider the money taken from me under the FICA banner is no less stolen and squandered than that under the “state” and “federal” lines.
“Confiscated” earns a mod?
http://www.scribd.com/full/45597481?access_key=key-2bsjqirj1x5u2hekkv6r
Cat, here is my price to income charts for NJ, very similar to yours but i have it at 5x right now, instead of 8x.
Although we would need a 30% further price correction (without changing income) to get down to historical levels of roughly 3 or 4x, it doesnt necessarily mean we are going there. There are other things driving prices besides income.
35, Freedy, that wasn’t me. :)
neanderthal 48
My ratio is HPI V income. That is why i used the term “relative”. Our charts are showing the same thing, just at different scales.
We have had the Income debate a number of times. Without beating the dead horse too extensively, i stand by my point of view that Base income is the PRIMARY INDEPENDENT variable. There are a number of other variables involved, but they are ultimately all dependent on base income. The terms of a loam and the ratio is irrelevant if i cant fund the base note.
neanderthal
<i.Although we would need a 30% further price correction (without changing income) to get down to historical levels of roughly 3 or 4x, it doesnt necessarily mean we are going there. There are other things driving prices besides income.
This statement seems somewhat disingenuous for someone with as much knowledge of the matter as yourself. There are a number of driving factors for prices, and 3 of the biggest drivers are all driving towards flat to downward. rates cant really go significantly lower and are more likely to increase. The credit quality of the pool of available buyers has substantially decreased to to demand being pulled forward. The boomers have begun to retire enmass which means that barring a massive population spike, the US is going to see a net movement towards contraction of large homes as well as a steadily increasing sales trend from the boomers who need the equity in their house. And, as you yourself have pointed out, incomes are virtually guaranteed to drop.
Now that the RE mania is in the process of dying, the job market in the gutter, and property taxes skyrocketing, how many people will be willing to lever up to 5,6,7 X income even if the banks would allow them to do so?
the only obvious driver for a n increase in prices would be substantial inflation and that only works if you see incomes inflating as well.
43 kettle cat (I like that one) Been driving past that one shaking my head for years.
As far as the Veto/Kettle debate, Vets gotta go with the Cat. Re to get crushed, you would not believe the stories & financial pain I witness street level. All figures and charts aside that is my gut on it.
DebtN (17): “Jobs also says that he will continue as CEO and be involved in major strategic decisions for the company. As a reminder Apple accounts for about 20% of the Nasdaq. As a further reminder, the last time it was even rumored the COO was leaving, the stock tumbled $20 in the span of a few milliseconds. German listed Apple shares fall 1.8% following the news.”
Earnings are after the close tomorrow and I’m fairly certain they will be epic, hence the German market only has AAPL down a tiny bit. I don’t doubt that Jobs departure will hurt them, but I have a funny feeling that the damage might not be as great as many are predicting. It all depends on what Apple’s forward P/E looks like after earnings.
I think if Cr. King were here and saw the state this country is in right now, he’d feed himself a bullet.
That’s Dr. King.
YEEHAW!!!! Unintended consequences are a B!TCH!!!
http://www.sltrib.com/csp/cms/sites/sltrib/pages/printerfriendly.csp?id=51006287
cat (51)-
Veets’ charts just can’t explain away the essential common sense of what you posit in #51.
Veets’ charts will also not notify him as to the time we will all need to go to the mattresses. I think this very important event should occur anytime between tomorrow and 1/1/2015.
Clot,
So how does NJ property law work? Would the Utah tactic work in NJ? I dont havea a mortgage so it’s irrelevant to me, just morbidly curious.
Under the state’s quiet title laws, Keane said he did not have to name MERS or serve it legal papers in the lawsuit because it was not the legal owner of title to the property. Those were title companies. In addition, attorneys contend, MERS cannot be the “beneficiary” or holder of the promissory note because it readily has admitted it has no financial interest in any notes or mortgages.
If this spreads at all, MBS are permanently toast. Its a good ting Uncle benny and the FED is around to buy them all up at par. The investors may not be to happy though. Oh, oops, the investors are in large part pension funds!!!!!!
mikey (52)-
With you on that one. The amount of RE crushage I see on a daily basis cannot be expressed by any amount of my posting here; in fact, I gave up on trying to give a blow-by-blow, anecdotal account a few months ago.
The amount of people that I deal directly with who fall into one or more of the following categories is astounding. Even more astounding is that absolutely none of these people’s situation is improving.
The people Supernova meets in the course of a day can be roughly categorized as follows:
1. Destitute, insolvent, unemployed and don’t care. On at least one form of public assistance. Allowing residence to fall into dilapidated state. Many in this category are 99’ers.
2. Destitute, insolvent, unemployed or long-term underemployed and playing strategic foreclosure on primary residence. On at least one form of public assistance, most likely food stamps.
3. Newly-insolvent, under/un-employed. Still clinging to delusion of positive RE outcome; however, delinquent on mortgage and using “savings” to buy iCrap and other idiocies. Still maintaining homes, even though now delinquent or in default on mortgages.
4. Brain-dead, not yet insolvent (though closer than they think), now expecting sale of primary residence to finance away all accrued personal debts, PLUS fund retirements. Lots of Boomers I’ve met in the past two years fall into this category.
5. Wannabe “investors”. Looking to buy anything, anywhere that appears to have been “reduced” to a level that a monkey might confirm represents value. These “investors” are merely the too-eager, too-early longs that will be immediately shaken out in the bloodbath to come. This crowd is easy to identify, as they display no knowledge of concepts such as vacancy factors, cash flows (especially positive ones), cash-on-cash return, etc.
Debt/ clot
The next fun court case we may hear about is someone winning the Quiet Title claim, followed by then promptly pursuing the unsecured note and showing that it is unenforceable since the last party who legally held it was paid in full. It will depend on state laws. But a free and clear house is very possible in a number of states with a good attorney.
I wonder if that court case will even be picked up by the press, as it has the potential to be a nuclear event.
cat (58)-
This language appears to me to indicate that Utah is a trust deed state. In states such as that, title is not held by the borrower until such time as the note is paid in full. In the interim, title is held by third party entities.
In trust deed states (CA being the most notorious example), foreclosure is not a judicial process. Lenders generally have an easier and faster time foreclosing and dispensing with properties in these states (these are the states where FK sales occur on the courthouse steps, or even at the curb in front of subject properties).
Not certain on any of the above, so attorneys here should chime in.
Debt,
Another fun angle to discharge the note, is to show fraudulent activity iin the creation and transfer of the note. There is already plenty of evidence of that, including a recent case where the home owner required a bank to change the info on her loan when she found they had “adjusted” it for her without her knowledge.
cat (60)-
From my understanding of bringing quiet title motions, all you have to do is find a judge and go for it. However, my only experience around these motions have been very simple filings for the purpose of cleaning up clerical errors and other minor imperfections in chain of title.
Again, attorneys here may want to chime in.
Clot,
I hear Miami is filled with 5’s, all of the absentee landlord variety.
cat (62)-
Now, you’re onto something. Reggie Middleton is all hot on this subject, as the real stinky cheese in the middle of Denmark is the fact that pretty much any high LTV loan done during the boom years is, at its core, fraudulent.
Middleton’s take on all this is that before the insanity bleeds down to the borrower level, the “putback” activity around all these fraudulent loans will send the banking system back to the Dark Ages.
I can tell you that some pretty sharp (and not so honest) people I know here in NJ have tried to use “fraud in the inducement”-type arguments to void their mortgages, or at least have the court force the issuers to modify them. To date, no one I know has succeeded in this. The courts in NJ have found for the bank every single time.
This is a heck of a catch-22 for the government:
You either support the banks fraudulent RE activity in order to save them, but in the process nuke the associated pensions and insurance folks. Or you support rule of law, promptly nuking the banks and perhaps limiting the damage to the pension funds and insurers. Either way RE is toast for a very long time. Hell, even if the government actually supported rule of law, the titles of a large % of properties are now clouded due to securitization fraud.
getting completely nuked by allowing put back type actions.
Don’t know if this has been posted, but it’s a Bergen County Trial Court opinion that says lost note = no big deal and no free house:
http://www.judiciary.state.nj.us/decisions/BOA_110112.pdf
It does, however, address the only legitimate concern that a defaulting borrower has in a lost note situation – that he might get sued twice on the same obligation.
cat (66)-
What needs to be addressed here is the sad fact that in the face of this Catch-22, the gubmint appears to have decided to do nothing beyond facilitating cover-ups and doing whatever is necessary to kick the can down the road for the next 20+ years.
Debt
It is my understanding that MBS are not allowed to hold unsecured notes. If the Utah case spreads then the cesspool that the MBS are sinking into gets much deep in short order. The investors would have a pretty good case of a putback at face value due to fraud on tthe MBS sellers part.
There will be NO winners in this mess. This is the titanic and the few available lifeboats already left, with their occupants now sipping fruity drinks on a Caribbean beach. But it makes for one hell of a soap opera!!! This is better the pro-wrestling or TV reality shows!!!
Before I die, I want to see Jamie Dimon on the stand, telling a court that his dog ate a mortgage note.
No. 2 bank overcharged troops on mortgages
NBC News exclusive: JPMorgan Chase also improperly foreclosed on homes
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41043127/ns/business-real_estate/
cat (69)-
Then, pretty much any MBS of second liens written since 2003 is in some pretty deep shit. Virtually 100% of those dogs were out of the money the second they were closed, and the ones that had even a couple bucks’ worth of collateral behind them are certainly by now way underwater.
“It is my understanding that MBS are not allowed to hold unsecured notes.”
Quote for the day: “I know of no higher fortitude than stubbornness in the face of overwhelming odds”
Gen Y saying ‘No’ to McMansions…
http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/no-mcmansions-for-millennials.html
veets (75)-
I bet that coresponds to many folks’ definition of stupid.
veets (76)-
News flash: GenY also saying no to working, marrying, starting families or doing anything that involves borrowed money.
lol.
The ‘Just Say No’ campaign of the 80’s was highly effective.
I have no doubt that the US can and will produce a girly-man in greater quantities- and even more shiftlessly indolent- than anything the Japanese could even dream.
NO WE CANT
http://www.screenhead.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/megamindposter.bmp
This seems relevant o the current situation
-Martin Luther King, Jr.
Beyond Vietnam — A Time to Break Silence
Delivered 4 April 1967, Riverside Church, New York City
http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/mlkatimetobreaksilence2.htm
I guess we know which side of that world revolution we decided to walk.
re: #80 – Supernovi – no need for urinals anymore we can all pee sitting down anyway.
Case in point…
Survey Finds 51% of Men Are Primary Grocery Shoppers, but Few Believe Advertising Speaks to Them
quoted….
The Great Recession has thrown millions of men in construction, manufacturing and other traditionally male occupations out of work and by extension into more domestic duties. At the same time, gender roles were already changing anyway, with Gen X and millennial men in particular more likely to take an active role in parenting and household duties.
http://adage.com/article?article_id=148252
j-e-t-s!
i love this Bart Scott reaction. he talks trash with the best of ’em
http://is.gd/40Gyp8
yikes (83)-
Mr. Scott will make an excellent professional wrestler once his football days are done.
I was at a party this weekend, subject of public schools came up. I mentioned that my son’s once passing but sliding elementary school is now failing as of late last year’s benchmarks. Party goers, many public employees, teachers etc, immediately said, of course, its Christie’s budget cuts. Umm, no…. these test stats were maybe two months out of those original cuts. Its a cult mentality.
to clarify…the schools aren’t failing because of the teachers either, rather its a major shift in demographics. 25 year old illegals with kids have flooded that school within the last 18 months or so. Saw it coming.
Barb,
if we follow the governments play book, you deal with a cult by locking them in their house and burning it down.
Debt 79 we already have
http://perezhilton.com/
http://www.figureskatersonline.com/johnnyweir/home/
the johhny Weir site is especcially painful
“if we follow the governments play book”
My personal debt would be equal to my annual salary. Of course this wouldn’t be a problem as I could simply lie about the true value of my debt.
But just to bitch for a moment, by son’s award winning teacher sends home vocabulary lists with the first letter of each word capitalized. These are not proper nouns. I have to remind my son every week that these words are not to be capitalized. Its a little retarded.
Three-time U.S. National Champion…
http://tinyurl.com/jamil-idol
Barbara,
At least your town has homework. There’s a progressive movement in Montclair to get rid of homework. Apparently, homework is bad for your education.
Cat [56 – I think…];
There you have it. Free houses for deadbeats. You can beat the populist drum and “stick it to the banks” all you want, but its a very strange definition of “Rule of Law” that promotes letting people off the hook for legitimately incurred debts.
That ruling, if followed elsewhere, is also is the E-ticket ride back to 18% mortgages, at least it would be if anyone but the federal government plans to get into the mortgage lending business and expects to make any money at it. Of course, 18% mortgages would hasten the decline of prices (Harry and Hilda Howmuchamonth still steering the market) which is kind of the way I expected it to play out by now, with more like 10-12% rates imposing a little sobriety on things. Alas.
BTW, I am really surprised to learn that confis©@ted throws a post into moderation. The mod software has such a dirty mind…
ATG [67];
That decision makes far too much sense for it to have any hope of being adopted as the prevailing jurisprudence. [/sarcasm]
Con’t [94];
N.J.S. 12A:3-309(b) requires as a condition of entering judgment in favor of plaintiff that the court find defendant is adequately protected against the loss that might occur if another person should seek in the future to enforce the note. This court finds that the combination of several factors, including the passage of more than four years since the note was lost, the circumstance that it was lost almost immediately after execution in 2006, and the total absence of any person or entity making demand for payment from defendant to date, make it unlikely that defendant would be faced with a demand for payment from another source hereafter. In the unlikely event any such action is filed in the future, Bank of America shall be required to
intervene and participate in the defense so that defendant shall not be liable twice for the same obligation.
Wow. Follow the money trail in absence of the paper trail. Enforce the note as intended. Protect the deadbeat if the unicorn of a note ever appears demanding payment at a later date. It sounds so familiar its almost as if someone here laid out that same plan to workout the assignment problem.
Interesting. My doctor who performed surgery on my Achilles Tendon is no longer at the same practice in West Orange. He has now moved to a center in Ridgewood that does not accept health insurance. Time to call Blue Cross/Blue Shield in Minnesota to find out what to do.
Neanderthal [75],
Gen Y doesn’t have the depth, moxie, instinct, savvines nor resources to even consider a McMansion. When they can count change without the aid of an electronic device, then they can advance to the next round.
(93) poopie eating is what the third syllable in onfis©@ted translates to, hence the moderation.
More Gen Y:
Oh, but don’t forget space in front of the television for the Wii, and space to eat meals while glued to the tube, because dinner parties and families gathered around the table are so last-Gen. And maybe a little nook in the laundry room for Rover’s bed?
WAAAA!!!! Go, make your bed, you little nose picker.
Lib ?obfuscates? Gary, Gen Y can’t make a decision unless
there is an app or team to help them with deciding
“When they can count change without the aid of an electronic device”
Ugh…This one disturbs me to no end. I hate when I give the extra dollar to avoid the 4 singles and they give me the ‘what an idiot’ look. Then when they hand me the four 4 change and I give them the dollar to get back a 5, they’re astonished by my mad mathological skills yo.
Libtard,
Who needs homework when Schmootzie already has a Nook and a Wii.
Gary, 99, sad but true. We raised a generation of idiots.
apparently obfus cate$ sets of fthe filter as well tried to be funny Lib didn’t work
Gary GenY or even more useless than their me first baby boomer parents
[90] barbara,
Same here. I am constantly finding errors in my child’s teachers’ work. Punctuation, capitalization, etc. Truly, the adage is accurate: Those that can’t do, teach.
I also find lots of logical discrepancies caused by poor diction as well. I must irritate the hell out of them when I ask them questions based on their own instructions. They explain the instructions, and then, when the explanation differs from the written word, I point to their instructions and say “but that’s not what it says here . . .”
Good times. And this is at the elementary school referred to as “Wilson Prep” because of the superior attitude that is supposed to prevail here.
I post it all the time see film Idiocracy for a portent of our future.
[102] escapee,
Indeed. In fact, I posit that the extreme emphasis that parents started putting on their kids in the mid-90’s was a direct response to the idiocracy that was being created in the 80’s, when the NEA crowd started phoning it in, and urban districts were graduating kids that couldn’t read a Coke ad.
[91] libtard,
In which division??? Women’s or Men’s? And did he skate in that, or was it just a drag kind of day?
Nom, Johnny is so fruity I wouldn’t be surpised if he went the Chaz bono route in a few years
Comrade:
“I also find lots of logical discrepancies caused by poor diction as well. I must irritate the hell out of them when I ask them questions based on their own instructions. They explain the instructions, and then, when the explanation differs from the written word, I point to their instructions and say “but that’s not what it says here . . .”
THIS x 30!!!
Deciphering awkwardly worded directions on homework is almost a daily chore. I have sent back incomplete homework with a polite “WTF?” post-it many times!
Nom,
I have had similar fun with my niece’s math homework (8th grade). Problems that are so poorly worded as to either be impossible to solve if taken literally or if interpreted, have a multitude of possible correct answers.
The teacher also wrote home a nasty note because she was using symbolic math as opposed to the mentally stunted methodology they were teaching. The teacher complained that my niece wasn’t showing her work. She was, but the teacher apparently wasn’t comfortable with symbolic 8th grade algebra.
The teacher also accused her of copying another students work when she calculated a square root by hand. The teacher didnt know how to do it and my niece had to explain it to her math teacher.
Lib 100 # one on my list of pet peeves. They can’t even count, let alone some intuitive thinking on why you gave them $11.25 for a $6.25 tab. “Just give me a five” as they wait for the register to tell them. The surprise on their faces is priceless as it concurs with my feat of sorcery.
Mike is your last name Einstien to pull off that feat! An emotionally stunted Starbucks barista freaked when I handed her a 20 on a $7.93 bill followed by just give me a ten back. She actually had to count back everything on the counter to figure out her tip. Generation of Idiots
babs (90)-
You can leave that shithole of a town anytime you want.
stu (91)-
Thanks. I didn’t know that butt piracy had a National Championship.
stu (92)-
If Montklair handed out homework, who would be available to sell smack and crack in the school zones?
stu (96)-
Please post it here if Blue Cross tells you to go saw off your foot.
cat (110)-
Your story reads like some of the same crap my kids have been through. I like the cheating accusations (which also came from “accelerated” math teachers who didn’t like that I taught my kids some basic calculation tricks) the best, because then I figure it opens the door to my going total batshit in response.
Things generally improve for my kids after such episodes.
Debt Supernova says:
January 17, 2011 at 9:49 am
When can we start talking about guns?
i’ll give you 2 tickets to the gun show at the next g-t-g (if it’s in princeton)
Hu Goes to Washington and currency wars.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703551604576085803801776090.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEADNewsCollection
Title issues are fun.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/17/nyregion/17house.html?_r=1&hpw
Im a physical therapist in Teaneck, NJ..
It AMAZES me how many pretend to be ‘disabled’ just to collect their disability checks…
These people come to state-subsidized ‘treatment’ then go off to their pick up game of basketball, etc.
There is a correlation with my service and the # of public employees that do this (claim disability) only to get a new municipal job at the SAME time.
It’s sad.
#121… your post reminded me of this.
“Like all male Swiss citizens, Federer was subject to compulsory military service in the Swiss Armed Forces. However, in 2003 he was deemed unfit due to a long-standing back problem and was subsequently not required to fulfill his obligations.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer
Debt
Nom’s kids, your kids, barbs kids, my niece, are all being labeled trouble makers, radicals, etc for acrually being capable of independent thought.
cat (123)-
Yeah, I know. The real trouble is gonna start when they begin to come after us. I spent time with both my kids recently coming up with some bug out/rendezvous locations, as well as passwords and simple coded messages we can use in a pinch. My entire immediate family has had longstanding rendezvous locations in a remote part of the US ever since I was a child, and we reconfirm them every 2-3 years.
Michelle (121)-
Why don’t you blackmail them?
Dr. King really got a free pass by not having to live to see the morass of shit we’ve created for ourselves.
All the talk of poor grammar, spelling etc reminds me of my high school physics teacher – spelling errors cost a percentage point on tests and homework. Improper grammar just got a big red pen mark to let you know you made a mistake. One of the few real educators I ever had.
feet (127)-
I, too, was lucky enough to have science and math teachers who busted on me for misspellings and bad grammar. That’s the sort of attention to detail that- when replicated in millions of mundane ways- allows a country to build a rocket to the moon or convert a wartime economy to peacetime purposes and subsidize real higher education for millions of veterans.
We have now devolved into a situation in which the ignorant teach the ignorant, and figures of authority in education instruct kids to ignore and distrust their own good instincts and common sense.
Debt,
The new skill to have is knowing how think on your own yet imitate your fellow zombies.
ITS World War Z!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
careful, they can smell a functioning brain a mile out!
Debt,
The best teacher i ever had was an AP chem teacher at the same highschool as your daughter. He challenged you to think on your own!
I was at the Starbucks in Red Bank when one of the idiot RBC teenyboopers orders the latte etc…. and actually pulls a crumpled wad of cash out of her backpack and makes the barista count out the correct amount and hand her back the change…..nothing like being stupid and a bitch….didnt tip either…..
Painhrtz says:
January 17, 2011 at 4:19 pm
Mike is your last name Einstien to pull off that feat! An emotionally stunted Starbucks barista freaked when I handed her a 20 on a $7.93 bill followed by just give me a ten back. She actually had to count back everything on the counter to figure out her tip. Generation of Idiots
Debt,
My uncle was one of the young engineers who fresh out of college were told they had to put a man on the moon and failure was not an option. By the time he retired in the 90’s he was in charge of the entire shuttle fleet.
He would be one of the first ones to tell you that they succeeded not because of bureaucracy and and bunch of managers. But because they got young talent who had no concept of limits and were told to get it done. It what you dont need doesnt exist, create it! That was the extent of the rules.
There was no ata boy, there was no second place. if you couldn’t perform under pressure you were out. He was handed a chemistry set at 10 (that would now be considered a simultaneous toxic waste generator and WMD) and told to have fun. By 12 he was mixing his own rocket fuel and launching size C and D model rockets.
those same actions would probably land a child in protective custody and the parents in prison now.
You want to see what used to be “fun” for 12yr old boys?
http://www.scribd.com/doc/482637/The-Golden-Book-of-Chemistry-Experiments
Debt
Look at the bright side. Modern day 1st person shooters can be a very useful training tool if used properly! Tomorrows insurgents should be much better prepared then yesterdays!