From Bloomberg:
U.S. New-Home Sales Unexpectedly Decline to Record-Low 250,000 Annual Pace
Purchases of new U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in February to the slowest pace on record and prices dropped to the lowest level since December 2003, adding to evidence the industry is floundering.
Sales decreased 16.9 percent to a 250,000 annual pace, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a gain to a 290,000 rate, according to the median estimate. The median price fell 8.9 percent from the same month in 2010.
Builders are struggling to compete with existing homes as foreclosures add to the overhang of unsold properties and drive down values. The figures underscore the Federal Reserve’s view that the housing market “continues to be depressed” even as the rest of the economy improves.
“We’ve got this tug of war going on where we’ve got this very weak housing sector and a manufacturing sector that’s doing fine,” said Brian Jones, an economist at Societe Generale in New York, whose 240,000 forecast was the lowest in the Bloomberg survey. “The new and existing home sales numbers were abysmal. You could say that part of it was attributable to unusually harsh weather.”
From MarketWatch:
Dismal home-sales data tell us nothing new
Financial markets overreacted to the news Wednesday that U.S. sales of new homes fell about 17% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 250,000, a record low and quite a bit worse than the 290,000 rate expected by the MarketWatch survey of top forecasters.
As of 11 a.m., an hour after the new-homes sales report was released, U.S. stock markets were down about 0.6%, while U.S. Treasury yields dropped. It wasn’t a huge move, but more than the economic data deserved.
The housing numbers from the Commerce Department are notoriously unreliable on a month-to-month basis and should not be used as the sole reason for any investment decision.
In February, the standard error on the monthly data was 19.1%. That means government statisticians are 90% confident that the real level of home sales in February was somewhere between 192,000 and 312,000. Sales might even have risen in February, for all we know.
What did the sales report tell us that we didn’t already know? Very little. We know home building and home sales are extremely weak. Home builders are depressed. So are many home owners, who owe more than their house is worth. Home prices have been falling modestly since the government’s main effort to prop up the market ended last fall with the expiration of the home buyer subsidy.
It’s possible that the awful sales data show that housing is weakening further, but the other evidence from other sources don’t confirm that. Home builders actually are a little more upbeat than they have been.
Many analysts believe housing has more or less hit bottom and hasn’t come back to any significant degree.
Based on the history of such bubbles, it’s likely to take years before home construction, home sales and home prices recover fully. Nothing reported on Wednesday changes that prognosis.
Interesting
the housing market depressed, the builders are depressed, homeowners are depressed, so where are all the bargains at?
From HousingWire:
Mortgage insurers are no substitute for 20% down: Institutional Risk Analytics
Allowing private mortgage insurance to function as a substitute for federal guarantees on loans would be a huge mistake, according to analysts working for Institutional Risk Analytics.
In the firm’s latest Institutional Risk Analyst report, IRA researchers say mortgage insurers are vying for a role in the Dodd-Frank world, and giving them what they want could be dangerous.
“During our several trips to Washington last week, we learned a great deal more about how and why the private mortgage insurance providers have been spreading more than a little money around town to protect their evil role in the U.S. housing sector,” IRA analysts asserted in their report.
The analysts added, “The first goal of the mortgage insurers seems to be creating a safe harbor whereby mortgage insurers can play a role in the prime mortgage market once the Fed defines a qualified residential mortgage as required by Dodd-Frank. Once that is achieved, the next goal is said to be creating a safe harbor for MIs in the qualified mortgage definition to be set by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.”
The analysts believe securing a role for mortgage insurers within the definition of QRM could lead to a bizarre “Twilight Zone” where the mortgage market is transported back to a time when key players are “providing credit to deadbeats again,” the report says.
“To us, any loans that fit the QRM designation should have 20% down payments, not second liens, mortgage insurance or other structural “enhancements” that ultimately undermine credit quality, the report concluded.
From the Philly Inquirer:
S. Jersey taxes rose 24% from 2009 to 2010
esidents of Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester Counties paid on average $1,140 more in property taxes in 2010 than in 2009, according to state figures released this month.
The 24 percent increase was driven mostly by Gov. Christie’s suspension of tax rebates for middle-income homeowners and senior and disabled citizens to help plug an $11 billion budget deficit.
Some of the region’s poorest towns took the biggest hits. Camden’s average residential-property-tax bill rose 60 percent. Gloucester City and Paulsboro had increases of 36 percent. Chesilhurst’s taxes spiked 38 percent and Lawnside’s 42 percent.
Without factoring in the loss of rebates, South Jersey tax bills on average increased just under 4 percent.
Taxpayers may fare better this year if the Legislature votes to have public employees pay more for their pension and health benefits, a condition that Christie has required in exchange for partially restoring the rebates in the form of credits on people’s property-tax bills.
And towns and school districts will be preparing budgets this year to comply with a new statewide 2 percent cap on the increase in revenues that can be raised through property taxes, though that restriction excludes sharply rising costs such as health and pension benefits.
But the numbers measuring last year’s increases offer a window into the financial pain felt by residents in a state that has long carried the unpopular distinction of having the nation’s highest property taxes.
Even wealthier towns weren’t spared.
In Collingswood, where property-tax bills increased 9 percent (and 29 percent counting the loss of rebates), Mayor Jim Maley said that despite police and firefighter layoffs, the combination of increasing pension payments for retired workers and a drop in revenues on everything from construction fees to the town pool had made the tax increase unavoidable.
“We had big tax increases and big layoffs. It shouldn’t work that way,” Maley said.
From Newsroom New Jersey:
Moammar Gadhafi and Libya still pay no property taxes on N.J. estate
ergen County is one if the highest tax paying counties in the nation. But it receives no help from one of its most infamous property owners — Moammar Gadhafi and Libya.
The Libyan government paid $1 million for a multi-million dollar mansion in 1982, six years before its agents blew up Pan Am Flight 103.
The Huffington Post reported the estate, called Thunder Rock, has been the center of controversy for decades, partly because Libya was exempted from local property taxes after winning a court battle in 1985.
In 2009, Gadhafi lost a battle to erect his traveling Bedouin tent on the lawn during a U.S. visit.
According to the latest Census Bureau information, the tax bill for Thunder Rock in 1982 was about $14,000. Last year, the mansion was assessed at $5.5 million, and estimates say the annual taxes would be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Surrounded by a low fence, the nearly 5-acre estate is clearly visible from the busy street. The expansive lawns are neatly trimmed, and a white footbridge crosses the pond at the back of the home. The gray stone exterior and flagpoles give Thunder Rock a castle-like appearance.
The Los Angeles Times reports that at the time of the sale, the mansion boasted 25 rooms and a swimming pool, and was intended mainly as a weekend getaway for the Libyan U.N. ambassador and his family.
Englewood officials estimate that the estate would have generated more than $1 million in property taxes by now, and they have formally requested that Libyan authorities issue a payment in lieu of property taxes.
Based on the history of such bubbles, it’s likely to take years before home construction, home sales and home prices recover fully. Nothing reported on Wednesday changes that prognosis.
40% of all mortgages will be underwater by 2014. Let me know which part you don’t understand.
Estimates are that a major share of the 7,000,000 houses that have delinquent mortgages or are in some stage of foreclosure, as well as those yet to come, will be dumped on the market, adding to the already huge excessive inventory glut. Some 4,500,000 loans are now in foreclosure or at least 90 days delinquent.
Dear Sellers, let me know if you have trouble with the big words.
This huge and growing surplus inventory of houses will probably depress prices considerably from here, perhaps another 20% over the next several years. That would bring the total decline from the first quarter 2006 peak to 42%.
This may sound like a lot, but it would return single-family house prices, corrected for general inflation and also for the tendency of houses to increase in size over time, back to the flat trend that has held since 1890.
Except for the towns of Hoboken, Millburn, Westfield and Ridgewood which are insulated from nuclear fallout, economic depressions, herpes outbreaks, locusts and Mets fans.
Was on Amazon and somehow wound up looking at huckster David Lereah’ s book-Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust.
Check out the reviews…….
Review
“An invaluable book . . . Today’s real estate markets are booming and Lereah makes a convincing case for why the real estate expansion will continue into the next decade. This book should prove to be a truly practical guide for any household looking to create wealth in real estate.” —DEWEY DAANE, FORMER GOVERNOR OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD OF GOVERNORS
“An important book, whether you agree with the author (as I do) that housing will remain an excellent investment or are convinced that home prices are poised for a plunge, David Lereah lays out a compelling vision of housing as a continuing positive investment—and how you can profit from real estate if you already own the home you live in, are looking to move from rental housing to an owner-occupied home, or want to use real estate as an investment.” —DAVID BERSON, CHIEF ECONOMIST, FANNIE MAE
And then we have a voice of reason from 2005……
For me, this was more comic relief than any scholarly analysis. The author has a vested interest in the bubble not bursting, and he’s selling his soul with this book to prove it.
He spins webs of demographics and interest rates, but he never ever addresses the core issues that determine housing values. What is lost here is that housing in itself creates no value, its value is completely predicated upon peoples ability to pay for it. Ergo, housing prices for the last 100 years have tracked income remarkably closely, that is, except for the last five years. Historically, the ratio of housing price to annual income has been 2.1, with very little variation. In many parts of the country, this ratio is now approaching 10.5! Can you say “major correction?” Further, the amount of leverage used to buy homes during this boom has been increased to absolutely unprecidented levels. Even during the last boom of the late 80s/early 90s, the standard was still 30 yr fixed and 20% down. Not anymore. Last year, less than 15% of borrowers put down 20% or more! Further, the 30 yr fixed has been replaced by the IO, or interest only loan. See now, we have the same borrower capable of bidding 30-40% more for a propery without any better credit or ability to repay. Neat trick, but sadly, Lereah at no point addresses any of these fundamentals.
Our stock/housing pattern appears remarkably similar to the one Japan had 20 years ago. First the stock market busted. Right after, the real estate market rallied, and it busted too. The current Japanese real estate market is in a 14 year slide to date, and houses are going for roughly their 1980 value.
Keep talking Dave – we’ll need the comic relief soon!
1.0 out of 5 stars Better title – “Join the Greater Fools of America Club”, April 19, 2005
By NewYorkBuck (NYC) – See all my reviews
Amazing!!! Fed Reserve and Fannie Mae loving the book….!!!! All in bed together….
Most likely not. If home prices fall a lot more most people walk away and we have RTC 2, If home prices start rising No. If home prices stay stable No, if home prices fall 1% a year NO as people are paying equity down with each payment.
It has to be something like falling enough each year 1-3% where it is more then equity payment made each year but not enough for people to walk away.
gary says:
March 24, 2011 at 6:32 am
Based on the history of such bubbles, it’s likely to take years before home construction, home sales and home prices recover fully. Nothing reported on Wednesday changes that prognosis.
40% of all mortgages will be underwater by 2014. Let me know which part you don’t understand.
“Most likely not. If home prices fall a lot more most people walk away and we have RTC 2, If home prices start rising No. If home prices stay stable No, if home prices fall 1% a year NO as people are paying equity down with each payment.”
Is this Bi?
Mortgage Insurance eliminates no risk it transfers risk from home owner and bank to mortgage insurer. On a macro basis if a default happens and home ends up in foreclosure and put on market cheap, whether bank, fannie, freddie, mortgage insurer is selling REO is still has the same effect.
Excel Bank a single bank branch in NYC gives great rates on mortgages, has zero closing costs, requires no appraisal or inspection and you can borrow as much as you want.
How to they do it? Loans are 200% collateralized. Want to borrow 500K. Deposit 500K in their bank in a collateralized account that is marked to marked daily that you can’t withdrawl principal in excess of loan amount and on top of that they still put a lien on your house. That is skin in game.
jj (10)-
We should all hope for a RTC 2. The magnitude of this depression is 10x larger than the S&L bust.
If prices continue to be propped up artificially, we will experience a Japanese-style, two decades-long depression…peppered from time to time with Lehman-style financial crises, in which we continually revisit the 2008 lows.
Since TPTB have decreed that markets will not be allowed to clear and banks will never have to acknowledge or write down the full extent of their losses, our doom is sealed.
Actually me, but the chief econmist of a super large bank said at a conference that if BK laws were loosened and people walked away in mass from homes it would be great for ecoomy. Rather than wasting money each month on a mortgage payment that adds nothing. They could free up cash and start buying cars, vacations, flat screens and dining out. Mortgage payments don’t create jobs, booking vacations and buying new cars do.
Lone Ranger says:
March 24, 2011 at 7:32 am
“Most likely not. If home prices fall a lot more most people walk away and we have RTC 2, If home prices start rising No. If home prices stay stable No, if home prices fall 1% a year NO as people are paying equity down with each payment.”
Is this Bi?
Remember, during RTC, most of the subject properties involved were extremely valuable, and in many cases, brand new. The crisis was also commercial RE-based, and there was no such thing as neg-am, pay option, 103% FHA, piggybacks or other vehicles that converted millions of deadbeats into “homeowners”.
Jobless claims 382vs 385 expected, same same
Durable goods -0.9 vs +1.5 expected, oops!
#2 – i believe the answer you are looking for may be that along with all of those things that are depressed you need to add: “homesellers are delusional.”
This is not the kind of “hot foot” I played in the dugout in Little League:
“The heroic but sad story of the Fukushima Fifty may be about to take a turn for the tragic. Two of the three workers involved in the dead end procedure to repower the plant’s blown up cooling systems have been rushed to the hospital following radiation induced injuries to their feet. In yet another startling example of the stupidity of TEPCO, the injuries appear to have resulted after irradiated water has seeped into the protective suits. In other words, these are supposedly safe, and completely isolated radiation suits… that are not even watertight? Once again, we wonder just how long will the Fukushima restoration procedure be handled by senior level executives who continue to demonstrate beyond a responable doubt they have no idea what they are doing, except of course to cavalierly risk the lives of 50 or so people (who will soon be far less) with each and every hairbrained idea. And the cherry on top is that the exposure to the two was “only” 180 millisieverts: well below the “new normal” baseline safe threshold which as readers will recall was raised for no reason but to mandate the continued risking of innocent lives from 100 to 250 millisieverts a week ago.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/two-irradiated-fukushima-workers-hospitalized-beta-ray-injuries
“Actually me, but the chief econmist of a super large bank said at a conference that if BK laws were loosened and people walked away in mass from homes it would be great for ecoomy.”
Did this expert also explain the effects on the banks holding the worthless crap? Oops, forgot the fed and taxpayers are holding the bag. Next nuclear meltdown, monetary policy; T-Bonds are the new fuel rods.
This sold for $677,000 in 2006 and they have huge b@lls slapping on a price tag of $679,000 today. The asking price should be in the upper 400s.
http://www.trulia.com/property/3045131778-11-Amherst-Ct-Glen-Rock-NJ-07452
CNBC is lights out this morning. The debate for the last hour is fantastic!
“the chief econmist of a super large bank said at a conference that if BK laws were loosened and people walked away in mass from homes it would be great for ecoomy.”
Simply amazing; just walk away, no consequences. Is this chief economist named Freddy/Pesche? Does a chief economist ever put his b#lls on the line?
Iceland let banks go belly up. Actually the fun part will be when homeowners walk away in masses then a year later realize the long forgiveness is taxable income.
Lone Ranger says:
March 24, 2011 at 7:42 am
“Actually me, but the chief econmist of a super large bank said at a conference that if BK laws were loosened and people walked away in mass from homes it would be great for ecoomy.”
Did this expert also explain the effects on the banks holding the worthless crap? Oops, forgot the fed and taxpayers are holding the bag. Next nuclear meltdown, monetary policy; T-Bonds are the new fuel rods.
Ken Langone and Rick Santelli are gutting everything and everyone in site. Somebody suggested that Santelli should have his own comedy show and Santelli responded that for comic relief, he just puts on CSPAN.
“Santelli responded that for comic relief, he just puts on CSPAN.”
Gary,
Did he mean CNBC?
Ranger,
No, he said CSPAN. There was a senator from California on and was preaching that the 35,000,000 additional people covered under Obama-care is already paid for. That’s why the CSPAN comment came out.
JJ 23 “realize the long forgiveness is taxable income. ”
Jon you better get ready to pay ,no?
I got a hot tub time machine at home so I am safe.
I paid around 200K in taxes in 2010. Loan foregiveness is income so they better get taxed. Thank God O did not get kill the Bush tax rates.
Or for your civil services workers the salary of 1.2 cops.
Mikeinwaiting says:
March 24, 2011 at 8:09 am
JJ 23 “realize the long forgiveness is taxable income. ”
Jon you better get ready to pay ,no?
The Gap Between New and Existing Home Sales: Adjusting to the Bubble
Thursday, 24 March 2011 06:56
In his blog today, Floyd Norris notes an unprecedented divergence between the trends in existing home sales and new home sales. He points out that existing home sales have held up reasonably well, while new home sales are down by more than 75 percent from their bubble peak.
While this is largely true (Core Logic and real estate analyst Keith Jurow have noted an upward bias in the realtors’ data on existing home sales) this gap is also entirely predictable given the rise and fall of the housing bubble. New homes are the mechanism that adjusts supply and demand. When prices went through the roof during the run-up of the bubble, builders rushed to build new homes so that they could profit from the extraordinarily high prices. As a result, we had near record rates of new construction from 2002-2006.
However, once the bubble burst and prices began to tumble, there was little reason to build new homes. A large supply of homes for sale and falling prices, makes building new homes an unprofitable venture. The price that builders can expect to receive is on average more than 30 percent less than it was at the peak of the bubble and they are likely to have to wait a long period of time before they can even make a sale.
For this reason, it should not be surprising that new home sales have fallen by much more than existing home sales following the collapse of the bubble. They will presumably rise back to a more normal level in the next two or three years, which is likely to mean at least a 100 percent increase from the February level. At that point, we will again be building homes fast enough to replace worn out structures and to meet the needs of a growing population.
Dean Baker
“Estimates are that a major share of the 7,000,000 houses that have delinquent mortgages or are in some stage of foreclosure, as well as those yet to come, will be dumped on the market, adding to the already huge excessive inventory glut. Some 4,500,000 loans are now in foreclosure or at least 90 days delinquent.”
Can someone tell me when these homes will be “dumped” on the market? Cause I’ve been waiting and waiting and the very limited amount of bank owned, winterized crap out there seems to want more then real market value. Unless you have all cash (as I’ve noticed on any decent “deals” from closed MLS sales), you have no shot. When the hell are they going to start booting these people that have been living free since they have a good lawyer. I could’ve sworn in any other industry, if I didn’t pay my bills, they will come and repossess my sh*t. I guess not housing, I’ve been the sucker who’s been renting and saving, I should’ve brought that overpriced condo in Hoboken a few years ago, not paid my bill due to a “hardship”, then had the bank lower the principal (true story from a friend who works at a hedge fund and blows his entire check every month and runs up the credit cards).
you know, people should really refrain from calling all underwater homeowners “deadbeats.”
it could be you, next year
there are many reasons people wind up underwater on their homes, and most of them have nothing to do with personal responsibility
people lose jobs, they or their children get sick, their marriages break up
it’s way too easy to blame individuals for being irresponsible when the fact is, this could happen to almost anybody who is not independently wealthy
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JD, using a mortgage I have beat out and won over ALL CASH offers – in buying shorts and foreclosures (in matching the offer, not exceeding it). If you have a firm & legit “mortgage commitment”, not to be confused with a mortgage approval (which is nothing), you can compete against cash offers/buyers in buying shorts and foreclosures. I have several times (twice with an FHA / 3.5% down).
Banks accept my offer over the cash offers because I agree to run my financing through them, the bank. Hence there’s more money and profit in the deal for the bank.
There will be no full-scale dumping until there are accounting changes that require dumping. Until then it will continue to be don’t ask/don’t tell.
“Purchases of new U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in February ”
State Media has a automatic template for economic news? Well, at least after 2012, if there is bad economic news, no need for State Media to use unpextectedly anymore.
There will be no dumping, zombification for the next 20 years. Just ask Mrs Wantanabe. Wonder if Mrs Smith, I mean Hernandez, will soon be trading FX; the new dollar carry trade?
you’ll see a huge difference in energy levels.
jj (28)-
Incorrect. GWB signed a bill into law at the end of ’07 that eliminated forgiven loan balances as taxable income.
Portugal Said to Need as Much as $99 Billion in Bailout
A bailout for Portugal may total as much as 70 billion euros ($99 billion), said two European officials with direct knowledge of the matter.
They wil not accept austerity.Let the Euro pay for the bills.Drinks are still on the table.
JD (30)-
When you look around the room trying to figure out who the sucker is- and you can’t- the sucker is you.
Only idiots pay.
30 JD: ” I should’ve brought that overpriced condo in Hoboken a few years ago, not paid my bill due to a “hardship”, then had the bank lower the principal (true story from a friend who works at a hedge fund and blows his entire check every month and runs up the credit cards)”.
It is New Era of Hopey and Change! People were right. O is paying their morgtage. (Well, not O himself, but the taxpayer suckers are)
deb (31)-
See #30. Absolutely stupid to pay.
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Any blanket mortgage workout that our gubmint comes up with will also feature some sort of credit scoring reset, too.
Given that credit can be repaired 24-36 months post short sale, I’d guess that the “new, improved” credit scoring guidelines will be laughable in their leniency.
7.0 magnitude earthquake hits Myanmar formerly called Burma.
banny (33)-
More than one FHA loan? Please tell us how you pull off your owner-occupant scam.
HE (34)-
My timeline on this is 50-100 years.
yo (39)-
I think Portugal is past the point at which Cristiano Ronaldo can bail them out.
Some mortgage debt won’t qualify for this tax-free exclusion and will be considered taxable income. Mortgage loans that don’t qualify include home equity loans where the proceeds were not used to buy, build, or improve the residence. Also, mortgages for second houses and rental properties do not qualify for the exclusion. However, some or all of this debt might qualify for other exclusions.
The tax-free exclusion applies to canceled mortgage debt of up to $2 million (or $1 million is married and filing a separate return). There are additional details to consider to qualify for this tax exclusion. The house must have been used as a main home, which means it was the principal place of residence for the debtor. Also, the debt must have been used to buy, build, or make substantial improvements to the residence.
jj (50)-
True. But that’s a very tight exclusion, given the fact that virtually all the defaults out there are well under the exclusion limit and banks who did cash-out HELOC all did the loans on the premise that they were for home purchase or improvement. In trying to prove otherwise, they would implicate themselves in having committed fraud in the application process. Also, trying to stick the borrower with a tax bill doesn’t get them paid any more or any faster (in fact, most HELOC issuers get nothing in FK/short sales), so why bother?
Debt [15];
there was no such thing as neg-am, pay option, 103% FHA, piggybacks or other vehicles that converted millions of deadbeats into “homeowners”.
You’re a changed man. I could have written that, right down to the provocative use of “deadbeat”.
Old joke about the communist system:
You pretend to work, government pretends to pay you.
New Joke about US banking system:
You don’t pay your mortgage, bank pretends not to see you didn’t pay your mortgage.
Debt Sup:
FHA rules allow for a second FHA if the purpose if for relocating. I own two homes now purchased with FHAs (within 2 years of each other). You declare the second your prime, only ramification I’ve had is my homeowners insurance increased slightly on the first as it was no longer my primary residence.
thought some you other geeks might like these NG volcano pic
for the rest of you look at them as a reflection of the coming apocalypse
Enjoy
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/04/nyiragongo-volcano/peter-photography
Deb [31];
Honorable people plan for potential income interruptions.
Deadbeats do not.
Honorable people live more than one paycheck away from default.
Deadbeats do not.
Honorable people save cash for luxury itels – 52″ flat screens; Monster SUVs; Disney Vacations
Deadbeats borrow use phantom home equity and put all those things “on the house”, and stick taxpayers with the tab.
Most of all, honorable people who lose their job, get sick, get divorced, or have some other income interruption that prohibits them for making their mortgage payment find more afforable living arrangements and move out of the house they are occupying.
Deadbeats squat in the house for three years without paying a dime, then stick their thumb in the eye of anyone who would make their life less comfortable than they wish it to be.
Hardhips happen to all kinds of people. Unfortunately, many of them choose to be deadbeats.
Banny [33];
Banks accept my offer over the cash offers because I agree to run my financing through them, the bank. Hence there’s more money and profit in the deal for the bank.
Mortgage commitment to finance through the bank on the other side of the negotiating table? How do you feel about your counterparty having intimate knowledge of your financial situation? Do you think that might impair your ability to negotiate the best deal?
“the chief econmist of a super large bank said at a conference that if BK laws were loosened and people walked away in mass from homes it would be great for ecoomy. Rather than wasting money each month on a mortgage payment that adds nothing. They could free up cash and start buying cars, vacations, flat screens and dining out. Mortgage payments don’t create jobs, booking vacations and buying new cars do.”
Moose,
From # 14. How about this deadbeat chief economist?
moose (52)-
I’m not a changed man; you simply have the reading comprehension of a second grader.
banny (54)-
I learn something new every day.
Thanks.
“Mortgage commitment to finance through the bank on the other side of the negotiating table? How do you feel about your counterparty having intimate knowledge of your financial situation? Do you think that might impair your ability to negotiate the best deal?”
_
Your failure is assuming you negotiate. Today you don’t need to if you’re a buyer. You put a take it or leave it offer in front of distressed people that have no other buyer. You leverage on the situation, plain and simple.
moose (56)-
Do you live in jj’s 1962 fantasy neighborhood? Sounds like it.
If you spent one week with me (not that I wouldn’t be shoving you into a woodchipper on day one), you’d eat those words.
Continue to enjoy your fantasy life.
In NJ, very few banks reject 50-55% of the judgment (in a short or foreclosure) if you agree to assume all buyer closing cost, buy as is, and run the financing through them. You don’t negotiate, you walk if they don’t accept. I do this for a living…
banny (63)-
Are you gonna try for a 3rd FHA owner-occ?
Moose,
How come you never bring up the deadbeats running the banks?
There is nothing illegal or suspicious about getting a second FHA and you are not even required to sell your first FHA bought property. Again, if you can show you are relocating – there must be some distance, i don’t know what the minimum is – however anyone can get a 2nd FHA. I will not get a 3rd, I buy the other properties I do w/a conv. mortgage.
HE (65)-
Because he’s a flack and a toady for the banksters. If he discloses that here, his credibility is shot.
Where you sit is where you stand. Unfortunately, moose is trying to hide his chair from us.
banny (66)-
I’m just having some fun with you.
FHAs get handed out like Pez. Anyone who can breathe should be able to get 8 or 9 of them, if they want.
The whole lot of them are going to blow sky high in a gamma-emitting plasma cloud, so why even bother having rules?
“The whole lot of them are going to blow sky high in a gamma-emitting plasma cloud, so why even bother having rules?”
Good description for the Fed/Dollar.
HEHE [65];
What would you like me to say about them? I thought that AIG, Lehman, Bear (and GM/Chrysler) should have all been thrown under the bus. If they had been left to their own devices, they would be forced to liquidate their festering REO inventory and we’d be well past moving beyond this.
Instead, they had to rally support for propping up housing prices. Among the side effects, Baby Boomers could be stress-free as they strolled to the bank to cash their SS check, thinking their POS cape with its OEM kitchen is still worth $689k, just like Fred and Ethel got four years ago.
I look forward to the rising generation being in a position of power and recalling the flaming bag of dog sh!t handed to them by the baby boomers when that particular breed of locusts is aged and most dependent.
(71)
Ok great, you were against the bailouts of 2007-2008
How about the ongoing fraud, continuous bailouts of yesterday, today, and most certainly tomorrow?
You blame the deadbeats, you blame the baby-boomers, anyone else you care to blame? (besides the banksters with their control over government)
Moose,
That’s more like it
Moose, Lehman and Bear Stearns were thrown under the bus! It’s Citi, BOA, GS, JPM and MS who were given golden child status and basically declared untouchable. The real issue is mark to magic, the sham is in full effect, most people don’t really know that Citi and BOA are actually insolvent! Everyone is waiting for inflation to happen and bail them out of their debt.
Reality is the enemy, why sell REO’s, accept reality, take a loss, when you can pretend it has all of this value and claim it as an asset.
Nobody blame Wendy & Phil Gramm?
“Some people look at subprime lending and see evil. I look at subprime lending and I see the American dream in action,”
“By and large, credit-default swaps have distributed the risks. They didn’t create it. The only reason people have focused on them is that some politicians don’t know a credit-default swap from a turnip.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/17/business/economy/17gramm.html?pagewanted=all
clot: I think I found your theme song…just replace “Champagne” with “Debt”….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3C7DECI0jU
Banny –
According to the Morris County Sheriff’s site, there’s a property with a 500K judgment. I know the owner/house and at peak, this would have been valued at $340K.
50% of the judgment is well above TMV given the current condition.
Most people are deadbeats. The biggest shocker to me was when I got my BMW 5 series at auction in 2008. Turns out BMW in 2005/2006 had an average downpayment of $500 bucks on a $50,000 car. If I had $500 bucks to buy a car I would buy a $500 dollar car. Maybe tops a used 5K car. But a 50K car?
Same for monster flat screens, vacations. Look at Beaches T&C, 10K to take a family there for a week, they have a credit card offer on website. Who the heck borrows 10K to go on a lux vacation? People are crazy. I sold a used Camry a few years ago and the people asked about Financing? I was like the car is 5k cash, then I get how do I pay credit car, certified check, registered check, money order. I go CASH, 50 $100 dollar bills. It is like the new generation has no concept of paying for something at time of purchase. I see 21 year olds putting starbucks coffee on a credit card and carrying a balance. If you have to finance a cup of coffee how can you manage a house?
Moose says:
March 24, 2011 at 10:03 am
Deb [31];
Honorable people plan for potential income interruptions.
Deadbeats do not.
Honorable people live more than one paycheck away from default.
Deadbeats do not.
Honorable people save cash for luxury itels – 52″ flat screens; Monster SUVs; Disney Vacations
Deadbeats borrow use phantom home equity and put all those things “on the house”, and stick taxpayers with the tab.
Most of all, honorable people who lose their job, get sick, get divorced, or have some other income interruption that prohibits them for making their mortgage payment find more afforable living arrangements and move out of the house they are occupying.
Deadbeats squat in the house for three years without paying a dime, then stick their thumb in the eye of anyone who would make their life less comfortable than they wish it to be.
Hardhips happen to all kinds of people. Unfortunately, many of them choose to be deadbeats.
Oasis = The Rutles
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZxStfh9BE4
Is there anyone who doubts a long period of double digit inflation starting around 2014? I was speaking to a frined of mine who says that will never happen because of Japan. Any thoughts?
Joyce [72];
Continuous bailouts – you know, the passage of TARP was a uniquely Liberal event. The house voted. TARP failed. So they voted again to to get the “correct” answer. Just like so many elections I could point to [in recent memory, MN Sen.; going back further, WA Gov. – just keep counting over and over — We’re gonna stay here until you get the answer right (left?).] If elections don’t produce the correct result, simply riot in the streets and public buildings, a la Wisconsin. I remember when the tea partiers overran the halls of Congress after Obamacare passed — oh wait — that never happened. I guess the trend leans heavier on one side than another.
Anyway, its almost enough to make one come to see the merits of Debt’s brand of anarchy.
As for continuing fraud, you apparently want to hang the banks over robo-signing. People sign things they don’t read all the time. Documents are often specifically drafted to avoid being read, much less understood. But you want to hang the banks? Be my guest. Just explain to me why the deadbeat who hasn’t made a payment in years deserves to be the benficiary of any financial penalty assessed against the banks?
make (82)-
Considering that we’re inflating faster than Zimbabwe, I’d say you won’t need to wait until 2014.
re #82 – Make shortages in what Japan makes will lead to cost push inflation.
Here is just one example in high tech.
http://www.eetasia.com/ART_8800638574_480200_NT_ce9cfa3c.HTM?click_from=8800075894,8644690093,2011-03-25,EEOL,ARTICLE_ALERT
moose (83)-
Hmm…who was the executive who signed that into law? Who was the Rethuglican (hint: he’s also known as Cry Baby) who flipflopped on the second vote and took a bunch of his pals with him?
You should teach a college class on selective use of the facts. You’re the all-time master of it.
“Continuous bailouts – you know, the passage of TARP was a uniquely Liberal event.”
Being a crook trumps liberal/conservative.
“Is there anyone who doubts a long period of double digit inflation starting around 2014? I was speaking to a frined of mine who says that will never happen because of Japan. Any thoughts?”
Make,
Forget about Mrs Wantanabe.
Hedonic regression and core readings are the mask. If you don’t eat, drink, drive a car, go to a Dr or pay taxes, your friend may be right. Otherwise, consumers are getting buried.
Helicopter Ben is burning up the Delco Turbo Charger on his printing press feeding Wall Street & he just found out Delco Turbo Charger parts are from a closed factory in Japan. He is angry that Delco outsourced the Turbo Charger parts.
JJ: (79) “If you have to finance a cup of coffee how can you manage a house? ”
This is one of the most profound statements I’ve heard from you ever. And I agree wholeheartedly. It’s unfortunate, but I think our entire generation is absolutely clueless when it comes to finance. I see it in how my town council finds 17% of our local budget goes to pay for debt financing as a non-issue. I see it in how my friends lease and buy cars with almost no money down. I see it nearly every time I go to a retail store. I can’t begin to tell you how many times I’ve seen someones credit card get rejected and the customer utters something like, “I thought there was enough room on there!” I see it as well whenever I’m in the queue to use an ATM. Without fail, the person ahead of me has to check the balance of their various credit cards and savings and checking accounts to see which ones have $20 left in them. Often these fools are driving cars that cost well over $25,000.
There’s this myth that the wealthy people are the ones who are responsible for keeping our economy going. They’ve even gone so far to fool the financially illiterate that by cutting their taxes further, it will help the economy. From my perch, it appears that most who have managed to raise themselves up out of the lower or middle classes have done it through frugality and saving. And once they get their, they will continue to maintain a certain level of frugality and spendthrift. During the tech bubble of 1999-2000, I used to invest in the Family Dollar. As the economy soured the Family Dollar did quite well. The company did a survey to determine the buying habits and demographics of their customer base. Low and behold, their gains came nearly completely from an increase in the number of shoppers who were in the upper middle economic class.
Often, when we go out with our friends, we try to go to restaurants with a coupon (be it a Groupon or a Restaurant.com certificate). A few of my friends used to frown upon it. There is this one couple who were absolutely embarrassed by it. This couple has always had aspirations of moving to Franklin Lakes. Well this past weekend, we went out for mediocre Thai food with them and they mentioned that they are lowering their expectations and should have been smarter with their money. When they sold their last house in Lincoln Park, where the husband was raised (house was sold to them cheaply by one of their parents) , they both went out and purchased brand new Acura’s. They also decided to rent a townhome as they saved up for their Franklin Lakes dream home. I asked them why a townhome, and they said they were sick of mowing the lawn. Economic buffoons are they, and sadly they represent the average middle class American.
In many school systems, they are pushing for Mandarin language programs. Finance needs to be taught at the earliest possible age since its implication is imperative to ones personal success. People need to understand that the minimum payment on a line of credit leaves you paying anywhere from 15 to 100% more (sometimes even higher) than what those not employing credit are paying for the same product or service. At the end of the day, the person earning $100,000 per year is actually consuming 15 to 100% more than the person making the same salary and is paying the minimum on their debts. Add in the fact that they are being paid interest on their savings and the disparity is even greater. I was lucky, my parents taught me these things. When my friends ask me how I can afford to have a home in Montclair and a home in Glen Ridge, I tell them it’s because we live frugally and save. And living frugally doesn’t mean we are cheap. Not many of my friends are going to Jazzfest in May and on a cruise in April, both for virtually nothing.
JJ, obviously does pretty well for himself. He’ll attribute it to his investing prowess, but realistically, it’s probably due to his willingness to live within his means. It’s really very simple to change actually. People need to turn off the TV and replace that time reading a book on finance and how to be frugal. Nah, it’s much more important to see who is the biggest loser, or who can sing the best at some fictional high school.
“We’ve got this tug of war going on where we’ve got this very weak housing sector and a manufacturing sector that’s doing fine,” said Brian Jones, an economist at Societe Generale in New York.
From the main article.
Puzzled by this Brian? The game plan is to pummel the dollar, slow burn not a crash, and ignite exports to emerging markets. At that same time, US consumers are getting robbed. Real incomes are now back to the 90’s, no new jobs are being created, past high paying jobs are now replaced by part time or contract. In the meantime, the asset is burning while debt levels are at record highs. A monkey could figure this out. Yet, pundits are confused? Throw your sh*t somewhere else, Brian. It does not play on this site.
#90 libtard
What credit card do you use to rack up those points?
Your blog is so informative … keep up the good work!!!!
Tanto (87): ““Is there anyone who doubts a long period of double digit inflation starting around 2014? I was speaking to a frined of mine who says that will never happen because of Japan. Any thoughts?”
With the purchase of my new home and consequent improvements to it, I am the most leveraged I’ve ever been in my life (by far). Why? Because I firmly believe that our countries current high standards of living won’t survive unless the massive debts are inflated away. If not, we are headed down to a very dark place and we’re all in it for the ride anyway. Might as well try to hop on board the Bernanke Express. I already learned my lesson with commercial RE that you can’t fight the fed and win. Your precious metals have moved up nicely these last few years, most likely due to this phenomenon. I personally see this movement as a major indicator of the inflation that is to come. I’m guessing once we see a little wage inflation (long time coming), we’ll be off to the races. I hope I’m right. Thankfully, I only put 10% down this time in case I am wrong.
Lib to build on your profound diatribe, I’ll go one further.
I was a financial iliterate until the age of 30 when at that time I realized I was paying at least 20% of my income just to debt service. It wasn’t my salary that was keeping me from getting ahead it was my spending habits. Cut back swallowed a whole cup full of pride, and was finally standing on my feet at 34.
My financial lesson growing up if you got it spend it, if you can’t afford it finance it. Great lessons, it is not hard to imagine why my mother has no savings and is debt to her eyeballs as she creeps in on sixty. Wonder why I despise the baby boomers?
Safe,
It’s not from the credit card. It’s mainly casino gifts. I know many here don’t understand the concept of advantage play and will fight me to the end on it, but the cruise was mostly paid for by the casino. We just had to cover the airfare and the cost to upgrade to a balcony from an outside room. As for Jazz fest, the tickets were purchased with FF miles and the casino will cover the hotel and $100 of our food. If I’m lucky, maybe they’ll pick up the Jazzfest entrance fee too. By the way, I made money gambling last year, even when leaving the comps out of it. I lost the prior two years, but not that badly. When you factor in the free rooms at Heavenly during peak and the countless other benefits, I technically won those years too.
(90)No amount of education will create responsible American consumers, its not in our DNA. Only hardship and pain can do that, both of which have become very un-American.
Hardship and Pain has been outsourced to the Guatemalans gathered around 7-11.
Excuse me, I’m next in line at the Starbucks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-23/naples-rises-from-florida-housing-swamp-as-wealthy-buyers-return-to-market.html
http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2011/mar/24/swat-responds-vacant-north-naples-home-trespassing/
Lib – that was me in front of you who didn’t have $20 in their wallet and charged that cup of coffee. I only carry enough cash for parking and charge everything I can on my Amex Blue. Received $1,100 back this past Feb!
Make – How long does it take to restart a Toyota plant? Cost push inflation the existing Japanese cars will become more expensive along with anything that the Big Three here push out to try and fill demand.
Global auto industry could lose 5 million vehicles amid Japan disaster, expert says
We could potentially lose up to 5 million units and while much of it could be made up over time, it could not be made up in 2011,” said Michael Robinet, director of global production forecasting for IHS Automotive. “As we stand today 18% of global auto output is down.”
http://www.freep.com/article/20110324/BUSINESS01/110324019/Global-auto-industry-could-lose-5-million-vehicles-amid-Japan-disaster-expert-says?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE
Safe…For now we use Amex Blue Cash for most purchases. Once you hit $6,500 in spending per year you get 5% back on gas, groceries and drug store purchases. Schwab has card that gives you 2% back on everything automatically transferred into your brokerage account. We haven’t done it yet as we were keeping the credit clean for our recent home purchase and refinancing of our piggy back balloon into a HELOC (got 3.75% which is 1% better than our fixed 80% down). In the past week, I have closed 5 credit card lines and I have about 5 more to close. These are all lines which I opened to take advantage of some crazy good promotion. For me, I’ll only go through the headache of managing all of these cards if it works out to at least a $400 advantage. We also recently took advantage of that Discover card 0% finance charge and 0% interest charge for 12 months. The only thing that sucked is that they only gave us a $7,000 credit line. Usually we get a minimum of 15,000 on new credit card apps and sometimes $30,0000. Some people say the Penfed card is good too as is the Citi Forward card if you eat out a lot, but I’m sick of Citi using their rewards as a teaser to get you to sign up and then destroying the entire program as soon as 3 months later.
pain (95)-
The smartest thing to do is rack up as much debt as possible, then default on it.
There is no consequence, and when Amerika hits the big default/reset button, personal credit scores will be reset as well. The best our chimps-in-charge can come up with to fix our economy is a series of leveraged asset bubbles, one more stupid than the last. This will continue for the rest of our lives, and the system will require an ever-growing supply of “creditworthy” borrowers…hence, slates will be wiped clean again and again and again.
Wish freedy would chime in here with how his universal credit card default resolved itself.
I bet by this point, he’s probably back in the game with 1-2 secured cards.
I have a few short sale clients over the past four years who’ve BK’d and gotten secured cc’s before the BK was even discharged.
cash and carry for freedy. renting is wonderful
(83)
TARP was Liberal?!?! I remember both parties voting in favor of it (and both presidential candidates making a big deal about coming back to DC to vote FOR it), then I remember a Republican president sign it into law, and then a Democratic president continuing it.
Are you suggesting that robo-signing is the only fraudulent thing the major banks have engaged in?
I never said delinquent borrowers should be the beneficiary of anything; they are not entitled to anything. But (and this is a hypothetical, though more probable) if one side and only one side had to benefit, I’m talking either the criminal bank or the delinquent borrower… you seem to unequivocally side with the banksters time and time again. They can do no wrong in your eyes. You are seriously one of those people that believe regardless of whatever fraudulent activities a bank(s) has engaged in, none of this would be happening if those damn deadbeats paid on time.
Simple math would tell you this financial ponzi system could not have gone on forever.
Mike Krieger: “A Calm Sea Does Not Make a Skilled Sailor”.
“In case you wondered where the title for this piece came from, it was actually the message that popped out my fortune cookie during a meal on Monday night. It just summed up so many things for me. It summarized why our culture is so damaged. At the core of the malignancy killing the nation is the fact that we possess the world’s reserve currency that can be created at will out of thin air and forced upon goods producing nations (whether manufacturing or resource goods). This means we do not need to produce to consume, which hollows out the entire core of the economy over time and has made us the generally lazy and decadent society we are today. I mean take for example the C announcement recently of a reverse 1 for 10 stock split. I haven’t heard such an embarrassing press release since reading about how U.S. taxpayers are going to make money from the bailouts. So for the last year all I heard on propaganda channel CNBC was how once C’s shares got above $5 it would attract a whole new class of investors and the shares would soar. Well the stock wasn’t able to hold above $5 so look what happened. Magic, they are just going to make the stock trade at $45 with this scheme. Bankers can’t lose, didn’t you get the memo? Oh and they are paying a whole penny a share in dividends. You have got to be kidding me guys. Pathetic.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mike-krieger-explains-why-calm-sea-does-not-make-skilled-sailor
joyce (106)-
All part and parcel of the fact that moose is an underling of banksters.
Still, he will not disclose what he does. The silence is deafening.
Stu,
Do you have any how to get these lucrative casino comps? I recently plunked myself down at a full pay vp machine for a couple hours betting the max and then played blackjack for another hour. Came out with something like $3 in comps. I assume i’m doing something wrong.
any tips is what I meant to ask…
Debt 102 I know, just don’t want to do it if it goes the other way. Even though hyper inflation looks baked in
Hopeful news:
As of March 8, 2011, Martin A. Armstrong has been released from federal prison to home confinement till September 2nd 2011.
pain (111)-
A country can inflate away its debt, or a goodly portion thereof. It cannot hyperinflate it away. Hyerinflation renders debt instruments, underlying collateral and currencies worthless.
WOW I am Profound today. Actually my wife claims growing up dirt poor and making peanuts for most of my career has made me a cheapskate. She is still amazed that what makes me the happiest with my money is saving it, investing it and buying things I get a deal on for cash. Paying full price for something makes me physically sick. In fact my wife only was able to force me out of buying used tires as recently as five years ago. But even I admit I went to far on the camry I had when I bought a used seat belt.
My wife’s other complaint is I try to money on everything. I have season tickets in great seats, I scalp 50% of games for double face and go the other half for free. She was like why don’t you go to six games this year? I am like I won’t enjoy the sixth game if I know I am paying. The game is better when the seat is free.
Libtard says:
March 24, 2011 at 1:24 pm
JJ: (79) “If you have to finance a cup of coffee how can you manage a house? ”
Martin Armstrong statement on day before release from Fort Dix:
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/release%2003-08-2011.pdf
Clot,
You going to see the Tar Heels on Friday?
Ranger (116)-
Nah. I got a lunch date with the Hunt brothers.
“The game is better when the seat is free.”
Is this the corollary to the lap dance is better when the stripper is crying?
Clot
Is this a better theme tune for you!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dhh24BB84e4
Dink…I could go for days on this topic.
Bally’s had a $.25 to $1 10-credit for the full royal on a bank of 9/6 JOB for most of last year. With any multiplier of 7x or more on your comp, these machines were positive. On top of this, they were paying out Bonus Reward Credits (different than comp credits) which resulted in bounce-back cash at a pretty decent rate. I didn’t do the math on the play, buy needless to say, I could go down with a $1,000, play all night and would earn bounce back of about $100 and easily $150 to $30o in comp based on the size of my multiplier. Throw in the $200 monthly coupons I receive to entice me to come down and I would have to really hit quite a bad streak to reach ruin. More importantly though, you must play the game with near 100% accuracy and you must really get to know how each casino figures out their comps. Bally’s works on ADT (average daily theoretical) which means that if you play from 6am on a Friday until 6am on a Saturday, this will count as one gambling day. If you as much swipe or insert your card into a machine at 6:01am on Saturday morning (or even get breakfast on a comp), this will divide your ADT in two. If you stroll over to Caesar’s on Friday night and play there as well as in Bally’s or eat there, your ADT will be split in two. Essentially, you should focus all of your play in a single casino for a single gambling day. If you must eat next door, don’t give them your card.
Then, there’s the issue of discretionary comps, which means you must ask to receive. After about 3 trips with an ADT loss of $400 or more, you can ask for concert tickets and the such. You’ll already get the free rooms and meals and the $100 enticements. Join AC_VPFree yahoo user group ASAP. There is a ton to learn there about advantage play in AC. Of course, things are much sweeter in Vegas and even moreso in Reno and other locales, but to finish positive, you have to win enough to cover your airfare. That’s no easy nut to crack. When I go to Vegas, I consider my airfare the vacation cost and everything else is factored into my mental win/loss for the trip. If you really want to chat about it, get my email address from Grim. Keep in mind, until you have the bankroll to handle the swings, people should steer clear of advantage gambling. It’s simple math. You also better be able to put up with the sleaze that is inherent in the industry. Almost forgot. Look into the game Ultimate-Texas Hold ’em. This is a huge comp generator as so few people know how to play that the casino take is over 10%. The strategy is easier than blackjack and with collusion on the table, it turns positive when you can see 3 others hands as well as your own.
Go down once a month for 10 months of the year with a $1,000 bank roll and you’ll get the cruises and other crap your really don’t need, but are nice to have. I’m going down Saturday night April 2nd if you want to learn from a playah. (channeling the profound one).
Debt [112],
Can’t wait for this movie. If MA is right, we should be hoping for a retracement to 1,000-1,200.
Joyce [106];
On the first vote for passage of TARP:
Dem. – 140 Aye; 95 No
Rep. – 65 Aye; 133 No; 1 No Vote
Measure fails by 205 – 228.
After the weekend, it was re-voted and passed
Dem. – 172 Aye; 63 No
Rep. – 91 Aye; 108 No
Measure passes 263-171.
I know… facts are hard. Perhaps it’s fashionable to call such things “bipartisan”, but the record seems clear that it was more heavily favored by Democrats than Republicans.
#101 Libtard
Thanks. I’ve got an Amex Costco card. Switching to Blue looks like a much better deal.
““The game is better when the seat is free.”
You ain’t kidding. The Gator, Gator Jr. and I went to a Devil game for $35 for $177 worth of seats through the Glen Ridge Recreation Club. We parked for free four blocks from the arena to save another $20-$30. Ate dinner at Hobby’s before the game to avoid paying for concessions. Man was that a great game.
Lib,
Help me out. How do I get courtside tickets for Friday’s regionals at face?
http://www.fsbo.com/140073.aspx
179K Jersey shore house
Safe…Follow the forums on Fatwallet.com. The participants there are cheaper than NomdePlume. Ha ha.
CME and Crimex about to come to a very uncomfortable moment of reckoning.
“In tried and true fashion, just as Silver was about to viciously destabilize the global capital markets as it surged to new 31 year highs, the CME stepped in and did its usual 3-6 half life intervention by hiking initial and maintenance margins on silver futures from $11,138 and $8,250 to $11,745 and $8,700 respectively. This is merely the latest margin hike in what appears to be a neverneding series designed to reduce speculative “fervor” courtesy of endless liquidity. What it will do is merely provide a better entry point for those who by now realize that silver’s next stop in the fiat endgame is $40, then $50, and so forth. Naturally, the price drop in silver caused gold to sell off too. And now that the CME accepts gold as collateral, we can’t even visualize the reflexive loops that develop once the metal that is also a collateral currency becomes more and less valuable at the same time.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/and-clockwork-cme-hikes-silver-margins-halting-surge
Lone…That’s a toughie. You could get lucky and find some sucker on Craigslist who must sell at the last minute, but otherwise, you are in a whole. Try the college sites of the teams who are playing and their student forums. You can get lucky there. I got two Rutgers Army tickets at the Meadowlands (yeah, the paralization game) for $10 each that way from the Boy Scouts site. My other two tickets were $55 each and were horrible.
#114 JJ
I hear you on paying full price. I was so excited this week when I bought olive oil, canola oil, and yeast for half price and scored some other stuff for 30%+ off . I think the local grocery store loses money on me.
There are a few brands of juice and sauces I buy. My wife asked me how do I decide to buy which one. I tell her easy. I buy whichever one is on sale.
Looks like QE3 may be on it’s way. I knew it from the action of the markets over the last 2 days that something was up….
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/someone-leak-something
moose (123)-
Er, check your math. The fact that the Dumbocrats were the majority party at the time and their absolute number of “yes” votes increased on the second attempt is irrelevant.
By my figgering, the Rethugs had a 40% increase in “yes” votes the second time, while the Dumbos were about 23% more.
When you shill for your bankster overlords here, at least do yourself the favor of not assuming we are all stupid as doorknobs.
Safe – if you haven’t already, consider an Executive Costco membership to get the 2% cash back on purchases. This rebate alone fully funded my membership fee.
Debt [134];
…not assuming we are all stupid as doorknobs.
I started from your statements that you once sold used houses.
Con’t [136];
The house at the time was split in favor of the democrats 235-199, or 54%-46%.
On the later vote passing TARP, among the yes votes Democrats made up 65%, over ten percentage points more than their makeup of the body overall. Among the no votes, Republicans made up 63%, almost 20 percentage points more than their proportion of the chamber. You went through arithmetic after they started letting students use calculators, didn’t you?
Tell me again how the Republicans (and I) are toadys of the banksters.
Lib,
Thanks. You would think the NC grad could help me out. He’s too busy with Nelson Bunker and William Herbert discussing how to avoid a replay of 3/27/80.
Thanks for the info Stu. I need to read into those boards. I don’t go down more than 2 or 3 times a year, I just want to make sure I’m not leaving money on the table when I do.
Funny, I nailed those $10 boy scout seats as well. So glad I didnt take the plunge for season tickets like all my friends did after the ’06 season. Have been able to go to any game I’ve wanted to at face or less by using the forums.
re #123 Moose – Rehashing that abomination? We covered it in detail eons ago, but I will break it down for you again. When someone puts a gun to your head you normally do not vote with your conscience or your constituents period.
#135 Blindjust
That’s the one I have. I think I drive my wife a bit crazy when I talk about buying stuff at Costco with coupons and announce how much each individual bottle/jar/can costs and how much we are saving per item compared to a grocery store.
Kohl’s is great too. I only shop there when they are having big sales and I have a 30% off coupon. I got some clothes this month for average price of 35 cents on the dollar. My big score of the day was a jeans belt that was on clearance, then on sale for 30% off, plus my 30% off coupon.
Hmm.
“DESPERATE Colonel Gaddafi was hiding in a secret desert bunker last night guarded by 40 female virgins.
The dolled-up bodyguards, supposedly banned from having sex, have sworn an oath to die protecting evil despot Colonel Gaddafi.
They all wear bright coloured lipstick, jewellery, have polished nails and totter around in high-heels.
But despite looking harmless, they are said to be armed to the teeth and trained in hand-to-hand combat.”
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(137)
Why didn’t the republican president veto the bill?
(137)
And your original post said “TARP was a uniquely liberal event”
Also you said in 137:
“Tell me again how the Republicans (and I) are toadys of the banksters.”
If you’ve listened to many of the people on here, there is no meaningful difference between republicans and democrats – they are all crooks and puppets for the banksters.
Joyce [143];
Genetically insufficient backbone. Got it from his father. From “Read my lips… No new taxes” to “I had to sacrifice my free-market principles to save the free market.” All in just two decades.
Joyce [144];
That’s the wrong lesson. The lesson to be learned is that bank toadys come under both party banners. That doesn;t prevent me from haveing a preference for one or the other. I get upset when no many ignorant people with the ability to negate my vote swallow the tripe that Republicans are in the pocket of the big banks.
Republicans/Democrats? The Bilderberg group is laughing their asses off as the donkeys and elephants rally their troops. It’s exactly how this great scheme was devised. Does anyone really believe that the banking and military cartel care which ass is in that seat? Liberals, conservatives, tea party, etc… Just pawns in the great charade.
JJ always thought it was better to get a bj when the girl is crying? Lap dance, thought that would be beneath a man of your um, abilities.
146-
Ok thanks for that conversation. You’ve completely crossed into troll territory now.
Embrace the Neutron Beam!
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moose (137)-
The only relevant statistic is the one indicating the percentage of each party who changed their “no” vote to “yes” the second time. Your obfusc@tion by selective use of the facts is consistent with your self-serving diatribes here, so you should be congratulated for that consistency.
Once a whore, always a whore.
ranger (138)-
The next time silver gets to its nominal all-time high, it’s gonna punch through and keep going.
ranger (147)-
Please stop interfering with moose’s propaganda agenda.
I wish bi would return. At least he knew how to be a troll.
142. Man his life is way more fun than mine.
Funny, this just popped up.
http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/clip_image0025.gif
155. Pretty much sums it up
Debt [151];
Once more to plumb the depths of your ignorance.
The only relevant statistic is the one indicating the percentage of each party who changed their “no” vote to “yes” the second time.
I don’t think that’s particularly relevant, but have it your way. There were 57 more “aye” votes the second vote compared to the first. Of 57 vote reversals, 32 were Democrat, 25 Republican. That’s 56% of fence-hoppers Democrat, 44% were Republican. Just to remind you, Democrats controlled the house by 54% to 46%. I’m willing to call that a wash, but if you insist, among the turncoats who bailed on defeating TARP after first contact, Democrats were overweighted in comparison to the makeup of the chamber.
Any more cute ideas? And speaking of trolls, have you yet filed a Postal Service change of address to that bridge you’re planning to live under?
Painhrtz – Cat of God says:
March 24, 2011 at 4:11 pm
JJ always thought it was better to get a bj when the girl is crying? Lap dance, thought that would be beneath a man of your um, abilities.
I did have a girl once who had stretch marks after a bj.
“Dear Sellers, let me know if you have trouble with the big words.”
Gary. Hillarious. Keep em coming…
Con’t [157];
Oh, and if you meant to imply that a larger percentage of Republicans in the house switched, like so amny other things, you’re wrong about that too.
32 of 234 Democrafts flipped = 13.6%
25 of 199 Republicans flipped = 12.6%
So lets review, in a Democraticly controlled house by a roughly 5-4 margin:
Democrats voting Aye outnumbered Republicans by about 2-1;
Democrats were over-represented among those switching from no to yes;
Democrats were more likely to have switched from no to yes than Republicans.
I could bat this piñata all day.
JJ
How about this house in Syosset? It’s Alicia Keys place. Almost 40% off the 2005 price too. (It’s the 4th house down on the list)
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“Is this chief economist named Freddy/Pesche?”
BC, this is good stuff…
“Hardhips happen to all kinds of people. Unfortunately, many of them choose to be deadbeats.”
Horrible choice of words. You sound like an insensitive pr!ck who lives in a bubble.
#164 Neanderthal
Do you think moose would prefer hardhips, buns of steel, or 6 pack abs?
“Is there anyone who doubts a long period of double digit inflation starting around 2014.”
Make, if I had a nickel for every armchair economist who thinks they can make this call i’d have double digit inflation in my piggy bank. Let’s assume inflation is a given. But when? 2 more years? 7 more years? 12? 100?
“$179K Jersey shore house”
Jj its 400 sq ft…
moose, I’ll do this slowly so you can follow:
Dems
vote 1= 140 aye
vote 2= 172 aye
23% increase
Reps
vote 1 = 65 aye
vote 2= 91 aye
40% increase
The fact that you keep trying to pin this on Dems pretty much sums it all up. Corporate welfare and using the US taxpayer as guarantor for the financial services rackets are crimes, and any member of either party who voted for TARP should be prosecuted as a criminal and jailed. None of us here are really distracted from the essential fact that you both secretly applaud this illicit bailout and are more than willing to try to hang the rap for it on a political party you don’t like.
Now, I really f’ing need UConn to cover the number.
Hi!
This is my first post on this forum
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If you’re against it, just delete my account
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[128] libtard
Getting called out by Capt. Cheapo on cheapness??? Ouch.
Don’t know if the word got around, but Kettle is now a proud poppa 2X more.
That is both wonderful and scary.
Now need Butler to cover the number for the parlay.
[173] debt
I have two girls. I know which circle of hell he is about to step into. For that matter, so do you.
[165][prior thread] fabius
I had a hard time following your original interpretation (two different 15% brackets?). Can you post a link to the data source?
I would like to suggest that Vodka name one of the twins Kemba and the other Walker.
[176] fabius
Table 6 from the IRS Data Book. Goes to the second point.
http://www.irs.gov/taxstats/article/0,,id=172265,00.html
Debt [168];
Weak. Irrelevant. Ignorant.
No, it’s not the NAR’s mission statement, its your argument.
Both parties increased the percentage in favor of passing by an infinite percentage compared to the number in each part who voted in favor before the first vote was cast. Not to mention that 140: 1+4-0 = 5; 172: 1+7-2 = 6 v. 65: 6-5=1; 91: 9=1=8 a increase of 7, so the Dems only went up by one the second time around while the Repubs went up by 7. That’s all as incoherent as what you wrote.
The fact that you keep trying to pin this on Dems…
“Pin this on the Dems”? They had majority control of the House. They voted in favor of it far beyond their numbers. They get to wear it around their necks on a string, a big Scarlet “T”. In the end, nearly 3 out of 4 Dems voted for TARP, while 5 of 9 Repubs voted against it.
164
Regardless of he choice of words, his basic point is accurate. For all the talk of job loss, medical issues, and other hardships pushing people over the edge, bankruptcy judges have stated repeatedly that, but for living on the edge and overspending before the hardship occurred, most of the people sunk by a hardship would have been fine.
[176] redux
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?DocID=221&Topic2id=20&Topic3id=22
Fabius, here is some 2000 data from Tax Policy Center (a joint project of liberal and conservative think tanks). Pretty significant. Gonna tell me that Bush totally turned this statistic inside out?
One more time Fabius, http://www.cbo.gov/publications/collections/taxdistribution.cfm
Oh snap!
TARP was a confluence of untrustworthy people in the Executive Branch and untrustworthy people in the Legislative. Branch creating a sense of urgency in order to persuade dimwits in the Legislative Branch and the press that unless TARP passed it would be the end offoxygen on earth.
OK, moose. Your mindless twaddle has crossed the line from trolling to the kind of mental junk food that is both difficult to eat and immediately regrettable. You are nothing more than bi with some crude facility with the English language.
You are also now a dead person. I will not respond to you or address you again…even if I have to check out from here for a while. If there is some deity looking over the good folks here, you will get hit by a bus or contract an illness that leads to your slow and painful death.
If you had a pair- and not some prosthetic appendage to give you the appearance of being anything other than the eunuch you are- you would disclose what you do for a living and why your paymasters so horribly influence the living nightmare whose diarrheic emissions we are forced to consume as a byproduct of your peanut-brained worldview. In lieu of such disclosure, I will simply conclude that you are just another in a long line of overeducated, underbrained stormtroopers for the corrupt financial services lizard-men who now own this country lock, stock and barrel.
And, finally, Fabius, just to add insult to injury, even the CTJ reports comparable data.
http://www.ctj.org/pdf/taxday2009.pdf
The CTJ!!! Your kind of people!
Of course, CTJ, like you, doesn’t think this number is high enough. Be that as it may, there seems to be little meaningful difference across the spectrum about who is actually carrying the burden.
In the end, it matters not whether we hate it or love it. If those that are actually carrying the burden manage to throw off the yoke, through retirement, estate planning, expatriation, whatever, we are all in a world of sh1t.
And IMHO, they will throw off the yoke.
Now, how about some counterstatistics?
[184] debt.
I suggest pistols at dawn. Weehawken would be a nice location, what with history and all.
Anyone need a second?
shore (180)-
That’s an easy thing for bankruptcy judges to say…when they are interpreting laws that were practically written by Master Card and Visa.
Butler is just really fun to watch, aren’t they?
Debt,
Dook in trouble. Might be a twofer night for you.
Way more fun to watch Dook lose.
Could be time for Coach K to take the Lakers’ money.
nom [185]
You may disagree with the way CTJ is interpreting the data (e.g. ascribing the employer’s portion of FICA to the worker’s tax), but at the face value the numbers are different, not similar to the ones in your previous posts.
I’d much rather reduce our huge income inequality not via taxation – industrial policy and trade barriers will move us a long way in the right direction – but if the free trade mantra continues to rule, taxes will be the only tool left to prevent total brazilification.
#176 Nom
Pulled from various tables around this source. I don’t have time to dig back into the exact, but this should give you an indication where the two 15% categories came from
http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/07in03tr.xls
Debt,
Dook Loses! You must be loving life right now.
#181 Nom
Are you implying that your prevous TF data may not be impartial?
On TF, why do I feel I just told a kid that Santa doesn’t exist.
[192] cobbler,
You are comparing different years. They support the premise that we are relying on the wealthy to pay a majority of individual income taxes. Were I motivated and had the time, I could chart this.
As for your second point, I have said repeatedly that Obama doesn’t succeed without protectionism. I think we are in agreement on what happens under pure free trade.
[195] Fabius,
Hardly. I just gave you the option of some sources you may find more palatable.
And I reiterate, I am looking at data and drawing my own conclusions. The TF article was actually about something else.
I will look at your data set. I did not think IRS released this sort of data directly, but they surprise me daily.
[193] fabius
Table 3???? You are extrapolating from Table 3? That’s gutsy, and I am not sure I can reverse engineer your results until after tax season.
FWIW, You are either way off base or a far better statistician than I give you credit for.
#185 Nom,
If I get time I will go through your links, but be careful when you throw “your kind of people” at me, every time you have done it in the past, you hae always missed the mark.
It occurs to me that the Administration must hate the HomeFront game that I see advertised. They are very sensitive to any symbolism in that vein.
Okay, its late. I want to watch the game but I have two girls to wear me out.
You hearing that Kettle?
[199] fabius,
Well then stop talking like them!
For Ket
I have a good friend with six girls (only one set of twins) that is the most serene person I have ever met. He has to be.
With twins for two and three, you have an interesting time ahead of you. The first child is always difficult as you have the learning curve. Number two as a single is usually a breeze but twins boot you straight to three. That can only be described as moving from man to man coverage to zone defense.
nom [196]
As for your second point, I have said repeatedly that Obama doesn’t succeed without protectionism.
Well, I’d say we as a country don’t succeed without protectionism… Unfortunately, the idea of the intrinsic badness of Smoot-Hawley, without any sense of the historic context, is so embedded in the conscience of the bulk of the college-educated public, that every sane person proposing protections is automatically treated as a nutjob, and only true nuts are allowed to suggest them and stay unpunished. For some reason people want to have their right to buy the cheapest clothes, coaches and gadgets in the world, even if it forces them into the jobs of Walmart greeters.
[203] cobbler
It’s coming, just a matter of form and timing. Too many forces pushing us in that direction, even with the mantra of “free trade” being pushed by this administration.
I don’t think it will be the panacea the left hopes or thinks it will be, but it will come, I can guarantee you that.
Butler wins. I’m whipped. Time for ZZZZs
#198 Nom
You asked why two 15% brackets and I gave you a link to table 3 as it has the footnotes that explain why that is. As I said in the original post I went off MGI. I don’t know if thats right or wrong and at this point, I don’t really care.
#201 Nom
“Well then stop talking like them!”
Why should I, I talk as myself and the views held and communicated are my own.
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