From USA Today:
1.8M ‘distressed’ homes could weigh on home prices for years
The U.S. had 1.8 million distressed homes in January that had yet to be listed for sale, a “shadow inventory” that is expected to weigh on home prices for years.
Market researcher CoreLogic said Wednesday that the shadow inventory had shrunk slightly the past year, from 2 million homes in January 2010.
The dip was driven by an improving economy, which helped more people stay current on their mortgages, strengthening in some home prices last year and more loan modifications, says Sam Khater, CoreLogic senior economist.
Khater expects the numbers to keep falling with an improving economy. But risks remain, including renewed declines in U.S. home prices and any hit to the national economic recovery.
…
As defined by CoreLogic, the shadow inventory includes homes that are more than 90 days delinquent on the mortgage, are in the foreclosure process or are already bank owned.CoreLogic expects all of the shadow inventory to eventually become foreclosed homes. Foreclosed homes sell at a 20% to 30% discount to non-foreclosed homes so they represent an especially “virulent” threat to home prices, says Stan Humphries, chief economist at Internet real estate portal Zillow.com.
…
When adding them up, and considering the current pace of sales, CoreLogic estimates that it’ll take more than 21 months in New Jersey, Illinois and Maryland to sell the homes that are 90 days or more delinquent.The long time frames underscore the scope and magnitude of the U.S. housing recession. “It’s hitting far and wide in America,” Humphries says.
From the WSJ Developments Blog:
Shadow Housing Inventory — Going Nowhere Fast
Another day, another troubling housing statistic: A shadow supply of millions of bank-owned and potentially foreclosed homes looms over the residential market, threatening to depress values even further and delay recovery.
The number, currently at 1.8 million units, represents a nine-month supply that, when added to the current 8.6-month supply of existing homes on the market, makes for sobering total that could depress values even further and delay recovery. A six-month supply is typically considered balanced.
Mortgage modifications likely helped whittle the shadow supply from 2 million a year ago. But, despite widespread efforts to help troubled home owners stay in their homes, CoreLogic doesn’t expect the shadow market to lighten up anytime soon.
While the trend “is improving somewhat, the current level and distressed months’ supply remain very high,” says Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist. “The short-term weakness in prices and longer-term weakness in the drivers that affect the housing market imply that excess supply will remain high for an extended period of time.”
The usual suspects remain drags on the market: Many Americans are still unemployed as the economy hobbles toward health. Particularly troublesome for housing is that more Americans owe more on their homes than the mortgage, a factor only adding more fuel to the foreclosure crisis. Indeed, there’s another 2 million-or-so negative equity loans more than 50% “upside down” and likely to soon become part of the shadow inventory.
CoreLogic sees the most distress in New Jersey, Illinois and Maryland.
From the CS Monitor:
Housing market: Which state faces biggest foreclosure risks? New Jersey.
Conditions vary widely from state to state. By the CoreLogic analysis, the states with the largest “supply” of distressed properties (measured in months it would take to sell them) are New Jersey, Illinois, Maryland, Florida, Delaware, Georgia, Connecticut, Alabama, California, Washington, and Michigan.
Those states all exceed the national average of nine months’ supply of distressed properties that aren’t yet for sale.
First!
Looks like the server is still on daylight savings time…
Could have sworn I changed that.
Who know’s what evil lurks in the heart’s of man, the shadow do!
Our new “growthiness”:
Benefit To US Economy From Deadbeat Squatters: $50 Billion Per Year
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/benefit-us-economy-deadbeat-squatters-50-billion-year
#5 –
All wrong.. They aren’t “squatters”, they are “highly-mobile opportunists”, and they need a more snazzy tagline, something like, “providing the growth engine of the new E-conomy.”
#6 they need a more snazzy tagline
Kinetic liquidity generators?
#7 – Not Green enough.
Qadaffi squatting:
http://en.sevenload.com/shows/Zoomin-TV/episodes/fOBzzU7-Squatters-occupy-Gaddafis-London-house
The US has 1.8 million units of ‘shadow inventory’ – distressed properties likely to hit the housing market. New Jersey tops the list, with Illinois, Florida, and California also among the most at-risk.
This is bullsh1t. I had realtors tell me that North Jersey is just bleeding wealth and if one can’t afford to live here, then one needs to look out of state. I read something similar on Kannekt as well so you know it must be true.
Yup! Bleeding wralth, as people leave the state and talr their wralth with them.
The problem is that, when people leave, the tiwn they flee is not deptived if revenue (usually anyway) as the person fleeing sells to someone else who is then on the hook for the taxes.
Stores that drive away customers lose revene, towns dont.
$500,000 and $10,000 in property taxes is the going entry rate for those that want to fit in. Remember, appearances are everything and determine not only your personal satisfaction but your acceptance on the social ladder in your community. If you can create a facade here, you can create it anywhere.
Shadow inventory doesn’t exist. Im guessing that’s why they call it that.
Case shiller ny is back to march 2004, which is 70% higher than year 2000 prices. Second leg down is clearly upon us. Unfortunately its a short little stubby leg that only goes down 3% per yr. Remember back in 2009 when we were seeing 12% drops?
“Bleeding wralth”
Awesome.
Shore take that device & throw it out car window. I would imagine you do not have small enough fingers, need a man size keyboard.
Ultimate squatting:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0496343/
For what it’s worth.
In the week ending March 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 394,000. The 4-week moving average was 394,250, a increase of 3,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 391,000.
http://ows.doleta.gov/press/2011/033111.asp
Here is a mind-boggling number.
“The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending March 12 was 8,770,443.”
Shadow inventory doesn’t exist.
Of course. I heard it was contained to subprime. And if you have granite, you’re insulated from bed bugs, locusts, nuclear rain and low flying meteors.
11
Prior year 11.5 M. 25% improvement. Glass half full?
Solvent Green
Mikeinwaiting says:
March 31, 2011 at 8:46 am
http://ows.doleta.gov/press/2011/033111.asp
Here is a mind-boggling number.
“The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending March 12 was 8,770,443.”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/260968-house-prices-fall-for-sixth-straight-month
“As noted previously, the double dip is no longer a prognostication but a reality: New lows are on their way for the Case-Shiller indices in the coming months.”
After having dug to a depth of 10 feet last year, New York archeologists
found traces of copper wire dating back 100 years and came to the
conclusion that their ancestors already had a telephone network more
than 100 years ago.
One week later, The Star Ledger, a local newspaper in Newark
New Jersey, reported the following:
“After digging as deep as 30 feet in his back yard, Vinnie ‘The Salami’
Manziano, a self-taught archaeologist, reported that he found absolutely
nothing. Vinnie has therefore concluded that 300 years ago, New Jersey had already gone wireless.”
Just makes me proud to be from NJ.
Mike,
Palm’s keyboards were smaller but better. Thr Palm OS sucked but….
This android platform and the current hardwsre is nit fit for business.
Shore you need the best of both worlds, guess not.
JJ Unfortunately you may be right.
What was posted yesterday approval of medicare paying for a drug for men costing 93k to keep them alive 4 more months with an assuredly terminal disease. Man up guys your kids & grand-kids will be paying for it.
Oblivion beckons.
Mike,
Society paying for such things is absurd. As s liver transplants for alcoholics, insurance-provided via-gra, yadda, yadda.
John,
Did you notice the mumber of people receiving euc benefits? It is still sky high.
Number
PT2000 21 “Prior year 11.5 M. 25% improvement. Glass half full?”
Sounds nice in percentage terms, problem is even down 25% it is a killer number.
Hold on11.5 to 1.8 25% something ain’t right here.
Mike, Shore
It would be more cost effective and provide a better quality of life for the terminally ill cancer patient if you provided them with pharma grade heroin and MDMA over the same period that you would have provided the new cancer treatment. Both are dirt cheap to produce commercially at pharmaceutical grades.
Shore 27 agreed, now if it is your money you want to buy some time, well it is your money. I’ll go as far to say they have a cure on the way ,OK, but if your going to die anyway. Waste of resources.
Shore neither is your typing on it, jeez you make me look like an English scholar on my blackberry
4 months of pharma grade heroin and MDMA would probably cost a few thousand at most.
Ket if i ever go terminal, I plan on going out in a drug induced blaze of LSD glory. All that fun addictive stuff I chose not to do during my college recreation pharmaceutical use years will now be on the menu, heroin the whole shabang. Since I believe in swordfish and not the invisble sky wizard I should not suffer any hearafter consequences. Praise be to the sharp bill.
Cat-o,
You have no idea what it takes, sometimes, to get the damned thing to spit out the mess it spits out. A post that on a Palm might have taken 20 seconds can take a minute or two. The platform is like an airhead beauty, initially something that catches one’s eye but not something with one wants to live.
Hey Kettle did I miss something in my post 30, something does not add up?
Cat-o,
God provided the poppy. If one lives a good decent life does, anyone in their right mind think He would care about someone easing suffering via a God-given remedy?
Fun times in Fukushima doing the Neutron Dance.
Tepco Workers Threatened by Heat Bursts
Nuclear experts call such reactions “localized criticality.” They consist of a burst of heat, radiation and sometimes an “ethereal blue flash,” according to the U.S. Energy Department’s Los Alamos National Laboratory website. Twenty-one workers worldwide have been killed by criticality accidents since 1945, the site said.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhcjRoU0C7g
Speaking of God given, I think I her a PIG calling out for a God-given supply of Euros.
Mike,
I was referring to your post at 26. The again it could be the Desoxyn I’ve been rocking lately ;)
Pharma grade heroin, sign me up when the time comes. Cat you are going to be one happy camper at the end! Where is Happy Camper anyway? Now that is an old one.
Ket 41 I know, wanted to see if you had the same problem I did 25% of 11.5 is 1.8.
Sean,
if you ever see the blue flash, you might as well go find the pharma grade heroin, because it isnt going to be a pleasant road to oblivion from there.
Tosh 7
That sounds like some sort of mass driver that fires humans.
The should send all of the terminal ill folks to Fukushima to unload the nuclear fuel rods and clean up the mess, they need to account for about 1700 tons of nuclear material. Give them say a nice bonus $10k per lb of nuclear fuel collected. Offer a nice burial and a stipend to the families after their death.
Sean, not to worry all is well.
Maybe it is because I am a hetrosexual guy but, I prefer the former costume to the latter:
http://tv.yahoo.com/blog/wonder-woman-costume-gets-an-upgrade–2645
The old one is on the left with blue boots:
http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/tv/blog6/blog_buzz_wonderwoman.jpg
One has to admit that this beats a photo of an unrenvated 70’s bilevel:
http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/tv/fpentblogs/300_adriannepalicki_031811.jpg
just saw that Russel Simmons sold his Saddle River castle for $10mm (101 Fox Hedge Road).
I seem to recall that the original ask was $25mm (if anyone cares to look it up)
Russell Simmons must be hurting. :)
As we used to say while people watching on the boardwalk: “Ya gotta love a woman wearing a bustier, latex pants, high heels, and a lasso.”
Well we said that on Friday’s and Saturdays, anyway, when the folks from over the bridge came down.
Is he a ballplayer? Traded, perhaps?
Why I love ZH:
“For all those still confused about the David Sokol thought process on Lubrizol, Keith McCullough from HedgeEye summarizes it best:
1. Buy it in my PA
2. Pitch Buffett
3. Meet w/ the CEO
4. Pitch Buffett again
5. Buffett buys it
6. Profit
Any residual questions remaining: please refer to Buffett’s later on the matter, as Berkshire will not answer anything else, or to anyone.
PS: great comment from a reader:
What people are missing is in plain sight: Sokol bought the stock with a “free option” not available to the public. If WB bit and bid for LZ, Sokol wins big (whether the likelihood was 5% or 50% does not matter), but if WB did not bite and passed, then Sokol would have non-public information that BRK would NOT be interested in LZ. In the latter hypothetical, any sale of LZ shares would then be an insider trade. A win/win situation for Sokol – last I checked, those are not available to the public.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/summarizing-david-sokol-lubrizol-transaction
looked him up, a hip-hop monger. Yippee.
I’m thinking about learning Spanish because it will help with my job. Does anyone have any experience or advice on what my first step should be? Has anyone ever needed to learn another language for work? How long will it take to get somewhat proficient?
Any advice would be helpful and my job will pay for basic classes.
Ask Steve Jobs whether all the drugs he did were worth it…..
Painhrtz – Cat of God says:
March 31, 2011 at 9:40 am
Ket if i ever go terminal, I plan on going out in a drug induced blaze of LSD glory. All that fun addictive stuff I chose not to do during my college recreation pharmaceutical use years will now be on the menu, heroin the whole shabang. Since I believe in swordfish and not the invisble sky wizard I should not suffer any hearafter consequences. Praise be to the sharp bill.
HAs anyone here been to either Anna Maria Island or Longboat Key and have any thoughts on th places?
Shore #27, the GOP poisoned the well with the “death panels” smear.
Also Cedar Key, St. George Island, and Gasparilla Island. Any thoughts are welcome
Sastry,
Dont even get me started on the idiots in my party who I wish would shut up.
Off to the office. Cheers.
Pharma is not interested by cheap cures they are only really interested if there is money in the patent.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVTaJn1dMrs
I have a friend with MS that keeps it check with a very low cost generic drug. Gone are the $10K a month bills for the weekly injections.
I think you mean any terminally ill cancer patent, the radiation might cure them and as Charlie says, Winning, DUH
Juice Box says:
March 31, 2011 at 9:52 am
The should send all of the terminal ill folks to Fukushima to unload the nuclear fuel rods and clean up the mess, they need to account for about 1700 tons of nuclear material. Give them say a nice bonus $10k per lb of nuclear fuel collected. Offer a nice burial and a stipend to the families after their death.
57- Are you ok with trying it on-line? Rosetta Stone does work, as long as you are disciplined enough to go to your online class. Once you get some basics down, doesn’t hurt to listen to as much Spanish as you can, which shouldn’t be too hard around here. Even listening to the news in Spanish can help. If you are starting from scratch, being really proficient is tough to do in a short period of time. Do you need to be able to converse or will most of your needs be for written work?
Fabius
HGH is a popular “gray market” treatment for MS that is a godsend for some and it costs way less then 10K/month.
Let me add to the other comments about employment we already have this morning.
I saw a wonderful AP article at Yahoo that shows why our unemployment is so high while our businesses are doing so well. It turns out that unlike other rich countries — and unlike our own prior responses to business turndowns — this time businesses pushed workers out quickly and have continued to make productivity gains since 2008.
This in itself is not news but the range and scope of this response is an eye opener. The contrast to other countries is shocking; quite simply in a nutshell the American response to the recession was to sacrifice workers, which no other rich country did or even thought to do like we did.
It also makes me wonder about future job growth and employment levels. If businesses are becoming distinctly anti-hiring in their thinking, where does that leave all of us? More of us will be jobless but those with jobs seem destined for never ending job pressure and anxiety. I would think that eventually workers will begin to organize to defend themselves but if we haven’t so far, what will it take to push us out of our inertia?
“In the past, when the U.S. economy fell into recession, companies typically cut jobs but often kept more than they needed. Some might have felt protective of their staffs. Or they didn’t want to risk losing skilled employees they’d need once business rebounded.
Among manufacturers, for example, some tended to hoard workers during downturns by giving them make-work assignments — sweeping factory floors, counting inventory, painting warehouses.
The result is that productivity — output per workers — has typically decelerated or even dropped as the economy has weakened.
Japan and Europe have been following that script. At the depth of the recession in 2009, productivity shrank 3.7 percent in Japan and 2.2 percent in Europe.
The United States has proved the exception. U.S. productivity growth doubled from 2008 to 2009, then doubled again in 2010, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Panicked by the 2008 financial crisis and deepening recession, U.S. employers cut jobs pitilessly. They slashed an average of 780,000 jobs a month in the January-March quarter of 2009.
….
When there’s pressure to cut costs in the United States, it’s borne by the workers,” says Howard Rosen, visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “In Europe, it’s borne differently.”
In Germany, unemployment is lower now than before the recession. To limit layoffs, German companies spread the pain by reducing workers’ hours.
“Japanese companies took it upon themselves to paint the factory — do more stuff that kept people on the payroll,” says Gary Burtless, senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution.
That helps explain why Japan’s unemployment rate was the lowest among G-7 countries in December at just 4.9 percent, though it may rise after the earthquake and nuclear disaster that struck Japan’s northeastern coastline.
The United States is “on the other end of the spectrum,” says Carl Van Horn, director of the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University. ”
ttp://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110331/ap_on_bi_ge/us_global_economy_tracker_jobs;_ylt=Ao7umLPVXrAST_RI5emlhnlu24cA;_ylu=X3oDMTM1dHFkMG01BGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTEwMzMxL3VzX2dsb2JhbF9lY29ub215X3RyYWNrZXJfam9icwRwb3MDMjYEc2VjA3luX3BhZ2luYXRlX3N1bW1hcnlfbGlzdARzbGsDdXNlY29ub215b3V0
#67 Ket
This stuff is pennies a dose.
http://www.lowdosenaltrexone.org/ldn_and_ms.htm
Shore Guy says:
March 31, 2011 at 10:24 am
HAs anyone here been to either Anna Maria Island or Longboat Key and have any thoughts on th places?
Shore: I have a client that is attempting to unload some real estate on Anna Maria Island. She really enjoys it. She used to perform most of the landscape architecture assignments for the State of New Jersey, so I think she would have some discerning taste. She actually designed the grounds for Monmouth Medical, although I do not think she received mouch enjoyment from commercial projects.
I need to lob a call into her sometime soon anyway, do you have a specific question(s)? I can take 2 or 3…..
Chi – dude what happened to your sense of humor and learn to read. I said if I went Terminal!, not to help me get there.
Sense of humor doesn’t pay the bills. Kill or be killed.
Erin Go Bust. Ireland’s banks about to become GSEs.
Ally Financial files for IPO
A source familiar with the IPO previously told Reuters Ally’s offering could raise between $6 billion and $7 billion, including common stock and convertible securities, although the filing with U.S. regulators would be for a smaller placeholder amount.
Chifi,
Thanks. We are looking for a nice and smallish SFH, 2-3 bedrooms, 2 baths, in a non-dodgey town. We like places with a “downtown.” Think Main Avenue in Ocean Gorove or downtown Spring Lake. We are intertested in as close to non-touristy as one can get and, while there might be something going on after dark, not overrun with loud bars and drunks. We also NEED to be within walking distance of the beach and like to be within walking distance of shops.
I would appreciate her take on the noise factor, quality of life issues. In particular, wht did she least like about the place. Thanks.
NJREPBPGIDreport – NJ Real Estate, Peanut Butter and Pharma Grade “Illicit” Drug report
“Don’t forget our house special, it’s called a Trickie Dickie Screwdriver.”
Sp. doesn’t matter on this site rite – what’s in a NAME, anyway?
This President is a true moron.
US Adm. James Stavridis
Senior Libyan rebel “officers” sold Hizballah and Hamas thousands of chemical shells from the stocks of mustard and nerve gas that fell into rebel hands when they overran Muammar Qaddafi’s military facilities in and around Benghazi, debkafile’s exclusive military and intelligence sources report.
Word of the capture touched off a scramble in Tehran and among the terrorist groups it sponsors to get hold of their first unconventional weapons.
According to our sources, the rebels offloaded at least 2,000 artillery shells carrying mustard gas and 1,200 nerve gas shells for cash payment amounting to several million dollars.
US and Israeli intelligence agencies have tracked the WMD consignments from eastern Libya as far as Sudan in convoys secured by Iranian agents and Hizballah and Hamas guards. They are not believed to have reached their destinations in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, apparently waiting for an opportunity to get their deadly freights through without the US or Israel attacking and destroying them.
78
You have to be trolling some pretty hard core sites to pick up that article.
http://tinyurl.com/onthewatchlist
Hey guys,
Is NJGator still on this blog? I know a long time ago she had written a post on how to go about filing a property tax appeal and what proofs are needed. I tried to do a search, but can’t find that information. Wondering if she is still around and can give a quick primer. Or does anyone else here know what’s involved?
Shore: sent off a contact….it may be several days, but I will post her reply sans any private details…..
Shore Guy says:
March 31, 2011 at 12:05 pm
Chifi,
Thanks. We are looking for a nice and smallish SFH, 2-3 bedrooms, 2 baths, in a non-dodgey town. We like places with a “downtown.” Think Main Avenue in Ocean Gorove or downtown Spring Lake. We are intertested in as close to non-touristy as one can get and, while there might be something going on after dark, not overrun with loud bars and drunks. We also NEED to be within walking distance of the beach and like to be within walking distance of shops.
I would appreciate her take on the noise factor, quality of life issues. In particular, wht did she least like about the place. Thanks.
Kal
NJGator or Libtard can answer your question. They are both still around on a regular basis
Every sheriff sale scheduled in Flemington yesterday was cancelled or adjourned.
Same as every previous week this year.
http://www.co.hunterdon.nj.us/sheriff/SALES/March30-2011.pdf
Thanks Kettle.
Every sheriff sale except one in Somerville on Tuesday was adjourned. The plaintiff on the one sale that went through was Hudson City, a bank that only does portfolio lending and has no fraudclosure issues. Since November of last year, only lenders like this have been able to complete sales.
It appears an investor bid the place up, and Hudson City let them have it.
http://www.somcosheriff.org/upcoming_sales.htm
re: Ireland Seems Debt Holders (Bond Holders) go bust.
Mr Noonan will make a “watershed” argument for a EU-wide solution around passing bank losses on to bondholders in response to the tests on Bank of Ireland, AIB, Irish Life and Permanent and EBS building society. Government colleagues last night described it as the first radical policy departure from the previous Fianna Fail-led government…
(53) shore
And they weren’t always women.
Juice 86
Mr Noonan should probably stay away from hot tubs or any other accident prone activities.
Rumor has it that sheriff sales will resume within a couple of weeks. I’ve got my fingers crossed.
re # 88 – Kettle the sharks were circling, Carlye Group wanted to buy ESB bank and I think GS was bidding on one too. The new government has canceled those LBOs and it is a new day with new politicians.
ECB WARNING: THE EUROPEAN Central Bank has warned Ireland against taking the “populist” step of forcing private bondholders to share the cost of the financial crisis.
ECB chief economist Jürgen Stark said the time had come for the ECB to end emergency intervention in the money markets. In particular, Irish banks would have to be weaned off ECB liquidity.
“It can’t be an ongoing thing,” he told the influential Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper. “According to the parameters of the EU-IMF programme the recapitalisation of Irish banks should have ended last February, but the last Irish government didn’t want to take on that responsibility.”
Asked if he supported the idea of Ireland sharing the cost of its crisis with bondholders, he said: “That would be a populist move, but one has to think of the consequences. The ECB is worried that in Europe and in other parts of the world that it would come to a new wave of insecurity.”
“Therefore we are warning the Irish Government in case it wants to solve its problems at the cost of bondholders.”
Mr Stark admitted that the ECB could not keep interest rates steady for much longer. It was in a “process” of ending banks’ dependency on ECB liquidity…
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2011/0331/1224293433349.html
30 year (89)-
Short of some sort of settlement on fraudclosure, I don’t see how sheriff sales can restart in any judicial FK state.
This, I guess, makes an explosion at Fuk-U-shima almost guaranteed:
Japan and the IAEA “share” the assessment that “there is no likelihood of reactor explosion” at the quake-and-tsunami-hit Fukushima Daiichi civil nuclear plant.
This was stated by Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano in Tokyo on Thursday,
snip
http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article1588464.ece
“And they weren’t always women”
You owe me a keyboard.
box (90)-
This is all leading to another Lehman-style implosion. This time, however, it will be entire countries playing the Lehman role.
Shore,
I don’t know yet how reliable the following is, but should be interesting to watch.
The EPA is preparing to dramatically increase permissible radioactive releases in drinking water, food and soil after “radiological incidents,” according to Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility.
Drinking water, for example, would have a huge increase in allowable public exposure to radioactivity, the group says, that would include:
A nearly 1000-fold increase in strontium-90
A 3000 to 100,000-fold hike for iodine-131
An almost 25,000 rise for nickel-63
Shore 92
The scary thing is how accurate the official statements are as a contrarian indicator.
more then 2 weeks ago they announced that the Tokyo water supply was not safe for infants, young children, and pregnant woman due to I-131. And the same water supply is OK for everyone else?
There is still precious little info about the SFPs which hold the bulk of the fuel elements and are potentially the greatest threat.
vodka (95)-
Life imitates The Simpsons.
vodka (96)-
Nothing vague about radioactive puddles that burn workers’ feet, intermittent neutron beams, radioactive steam explosions, containment vessels at 700 degrees and fuel rods catching on fire and melting.
They’re all gonna cook like TV dinners.
95 sounds like an ad for a dietary supplement.
Ouch!
http://www.hollandsentinel.com/opinions/x13292164/COLUMN-American-workers-got-what-they-deserved
Oh to be a fly on the wall. I suspect Newts message will be STFU.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/52270.html
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich — the last speaker to shut down the government — will address Republicans Thursday in a closed-door meeting with the GOP’s 87-member freshman class and a health care caucus. And on Friday, House Republicans will force a floor debate on a largely symbolic bill that would compel the Senate to swallow every last dime of House Republicans’ $61 billion in spending cuts.
Trouble I have with this is that normally when a Sr. Bondholder takes a loss, company goes bankrupt and is liquidated and fire sale is used to pay off bondholders, anywhere from 10-60 cents on a dollar.
This is a case where govt siezes company, company continues to operate, employees get paid, and they decide just screw the bond holders.
Juice Box says:
March 31, 2011 at 1:14 pm
re: Ireland Seems Debt Holders (Bond Holders) go bust.
Mr Noonan will make a “watershed” argument for a EU-wide solution around passing bank losses on to bondholders in response to the tests on Bank of Ireland, AIB, Irish Life and Permanent and EBS building society. Government colleagues last night described it as the first radical policy departure from the previous Fianna Fail-led government…
Get bottled water! Everyone knows that plastic is impenetrable and that bottled water comes from heavenly water fairies. Its going to be OK.
..“Housing Is Dead”: Bubble Still Bursting Here and Abroad, Says Harry Dent
By Peter Gorenstein | Daily Ticker – 2 hours 37 minutes ago
Five years after the housing market peaked, conditions are not improving in most areas. The latest data shows housing prices are still down and housing sales are sluggish. New home sales hit a record low in February and the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index suffered it’s sixth-consecutive price slump in January.
Unfortunately, the halcyon years of real estate will not return, no matter how much stimulus is pumped into the economy, says Harry Dent founder of HS Dent. Demographics and debt can no longer support it, he argues. “Housing is not coming back. Baby boomers are done buying housing.” Simply put, “housing is dead,” he declares.
Worse yet, the bursting of the housing bubble will continue until we’re back to pre-irrational exuberance levels, he tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. “Just to erase the bubble, (housing) has to drop 55% [from the peak], not the 33% we’ve seen on the Case-Shiller thus far.”
The drop could be as bad as 65% from the peak before Case-Shiller bottoms sometime in 2013, he says.
The trouble with housing is a global phenomenon. “This is a worldwide real estate and credit bubble. We’re going to see a worldwide crash,” Dent predicts. Shanghai, Hong Kong and Mumbai are especially fragile, noting home price to income levels have reached 40 -to-1 in Shanghai.
There is no subprime rot in Asia as there was in the U.S.. The problem in the emerging markets is based on over speculation by the relatively small wealthy class. “The wealthy are speculating in housing, even if they’re putting down more cash. This is a bubble of the wealthy and it will burst.”
..
A new phrase for the lexicon. “With notably rare exceptions”
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/30/the-exceptional-mr-greenspan/?scp=2&sq=krugman&st=cse
Shore (101)- that editorialist doesn’t have a clue. He reverses cause and effect. He is the one really asking people to pull themselves up by their bootstraps. Don’t like how much money you’re making? Just find yourself a politician or a union who says they will make sure you get paid 10% more! Don’t like competing with the rest of the world? Find a politician who will tell you they can make the rest of the world’s competitors go away. If your income goes up 10% while your cost of living goes up 20% (as it would if the US suddenly became protectionist and highly unionized), what do you accomplish?
This is the mentality that will lead to the Chinese Sally Struthers soliciting donations for starving Americans 100 years from now. Wait, I forgot, the Chinese are the ones funding extended unemployment payments in the US today, by buying T-bonds. Their future loss. Central banks are always the dumbest money out there, even Chinese ones run by guys who did really well on math tests.
This sort of thing makes me f’ing crazy.
http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/School-librarian-correctly-books-improbable-Fina?urn=fantasy-wp371
Reminds me of the ditzy blonde I worked with who was killing us in weekly football pools; she picked the teams with the cuter names.
!103 JJ
I suppose they forgot that the Sr bondholders are always due a Happy Ending!
[93] shore
93.Shore Guy says:
“And they weren’t always women”
“You owe me a keyboard.”
What luck. I happen to have one of those funky ergonomic jobs sitting in my office.
[103] JJ
So how will that work going forward in Bond Land? Much increased risk premium? Use of a trustee and lockbox for revenues with a holdback escrow of some sort? Government guarantee? (oh, wouldn’t that be ironic). Or will it be more of the GM/Chysler treatment where the bondholders were given an offer they couldn’t refuse (or else suffer the IRS proctological treatment for not being a good boy)?
I cannot see any major investments in bonds, be it in the US or EU, if there is a real risk of expropriation by a western government. And that risk isn’t theoretical anymore.
Nompound Fever. Catch it!
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2011/03/06/us/20110306-FARMER.html
Okay, the Nompound aspect isn’t discussed. But NYT runs nothing without a political angle.
Bonds are less risky than stocks from a loss of principal perspective. If you are afraid to buy a bond cause govt will screw you that makes FDIC CDs, Equities and everything else untouchable. Oh and gold the USA is largest holder in the world, JPMorgan largest holder of silver, Alcola, largest holder of aluminum and car companies largest holders of futures contracts on many mentals such as Platimun and steel. Can even hold cash as they can inflate that to nothing.
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
March 31, 2011 at 3:45 pm
[103] JJ
So how will that work going forward in Bond Land? Much increased risk premium? Use of a trustee and lockbox for revenues with a holdback escrow of some sort? Government guarantee? (oh, wouldn’t that be ironic). Or will it be more of the GM/Chysler treatment where the bondholders were given an offer they couldn’t refuse (or else suffer the IRS proctological treatment for not being a good boy)?
I cannot see any major investments in bonds, be it in the US or EU, if there is a real risk of expropriation by a western government. And that risk isn’t theoretical anymore.
re: #103 – JJ – Sure they have some dated 2006 CDOs squared paper during bankruptcy liquidation to sell. Assets in the banking system are loans and derivative products. Do you really think liquidating all that junk paper will yield 10-60 cents on the dollar there are no buyers.
http://www.perfectpitchtips.com/perfect-pitch-training Thanks for that awesome posting. It saved MUCH time :-)
re #114- JJ – I will expand on it a bit more, there are no buyers for the junk paper and there are no buyers for the 300,000 empty rotting homes in Ireland that are backing that junk paper. This charade has gone on long enough, the people have voted and there will be change even if it brings down the entire EU with it.
Like Debt likes to say – no one will be spared.
plume (110)-
Your wife lets you keep a ho0ker in the house? Sweet.
“I happen to have one of those funky ergonomic jobs sitting in my office.”
Debt thanks, now I have this image of a physically deformed prostitute as ergonomic chair. Fishnets and happy ending optional
box (116)-
Sure bet that nobody in Ireland will be spared. They’ll end up having another goddam potato famine if they’re not careful.
I hear everyone who’s young and mobile is getting the hell out and going to NZ or AUS.
pain (118)-
You’re welcome.
“Oh and gold the USA is largest holder in the world”
And Nero fiddled while Rome burned.
Will it be Irish Haircut Friday?
Anyone care to predict how far the funding seizure will spread when Irish bondholders get scalped? I’d say Portugal and Spain will be instantly DOA, with others to follow fast.
This is gonna be like 20 Lehmans, all at once. Good times!
re #119- Right now about 2k a week emigrating mostly young single people. Nothing new. I have relatives in NZ migrated there in the 80s. It is a great place to live if you can get into the country. Immigration to AUS and NZ has been pretty restricted for decades, and they are just opening it up to skilled laborers. If you sell Real estate or junk bonds or have a 44 inch wasitline and shuffle around in Crocs and Ed Hardy gear I doubt they will want you.
I want to buy a home in Ireland. No property taxes, quick flight JFK, great climate and Dublin is a fun city. When prices fall enough homes will all be sold. My old family farm heck is someone said 50K you can have it back I would fed ex the check today. The only unsold houses are houses overpriced.
box (123)-
What about chronic layabouts with severe drinking problems (no, this is not me)?
jj (124)-
Any idea what the absorption rate is on 380K vacant new homes with rot and mold in an insolvent country that is shedding talented young people as fast as they can get out?
Hint: I think Detroit is probably your model for this calculation.
I don’t have a 44 inch waistline but unless you are giving a guy a bj and don’t want their belly resting on your head, why do you care if a laborer has a pot belly?
Juicebox
March 31, 2011 at 4:25 pm
re #119- Right now about 2k a week emigrating mostly young single people. Nothing new. I have relatives in NZ migrated there in the 80s. It is a great place to live if you can get into the country. Immigration to AUS and NZ has been pretty restricted for decades, and they are just opening it up to skilled laborers. If you sell Real estate or junk bonds or have a 44 inch wasitline and shuffle around in Crocs and Ed Hardy gear I doubt they will want you.
Five minutes tops.
Six million Irish in America, throw all 380K homes on line to any Irish American family for one dollar each. I know everyone in my family would buy one.
Debt Supernova says:
March 31, 2011 at 4:29 pm
jj (124)-
Any idea what the absorption rate is on 380K vacant new homes with rot and mold in an insolvent country that is shedding talented young people as fast as they can get out?
Hint: I think Detroit is probably your model for this calculation.
Debt 122
Didnt the Portuguese bond curve just go inverse? When Ireland triggers this, Portugal is toast and Spain cant be far behind.
There is no subprime rot in Asia as there was in the U.S.. The problem in the emerging markets is based on over speculation by the relatively small wealthy class. “The wealthy are speculating in housing, even if they’re putting down more cash. This is a bubble of the wealthy and it will burst.”
How can it burst if the wealthy speculator is in no rush to sell? Long term outlook, it goes to the heirloom.The difference between paying cash and credit you have to maintain payments.Alot of the condo units that are owned by speculators are not finished.Just shells that need an interior work.
re: #129 – Contaigon all roads lead to Rome.
“In Denmark, the government inflicted so- called haircuts on senior creditors and depositors of regional lender Amagerbanken A/S, which failed after losing money on investments including real-estate loans. Moody’s Investors Service cut ratings of five Danish banks, including Danske Bank A/S, the country’s biggest, pushing up funding costs. Ireland’s government has similar powers to Denmark’s under the terms of its banking act. ”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-31/bondholder-haircut-from-ireland-may-shut-italy-spain-funding.html
JJ – seems they have jobs for a penny pinchers.
http://www.australiajobs77.com/q-accountant-jobs-australia
Shore,
It appears the fallout readings are being going mainstream from the other day
http://blogs.forbes.com/jeffmcmahon/2011/03/28/epa-expect-more-radiation-in-rainwater/
I see that they didnt mention the cesium levels. with a half-life of 30 yrs cesium is on of the primary contaminants in the Chernobyl exclusion zone. It would take about 200 years for an initial sample of cesium-137 to drop to 1% of its original concentration. I131 should take about 50 days to drop to 1% of its original concentration.
Lying under oath
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) tapped the Federal Reserve’s discount window at least five times since September 2008, according to central bank data that contradict an executive’s testimony last year.
Goldman Sachs Bank USA, a unit of the company, took overnight loans from the Federal Reserve on Sept. 23, Oct. 1, and Oct. 23 in 2008 as well as on Sept. 9, 2009, and Jan. 11, 2010, according to the data released today. The largest loan was $50 million on Sept. 23 and the smallest was $1 million on the most recent two occasions.
Goldman Sachs President and Chief Operating Officer Gary D. Cohn told the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission June 30 that “we used it one night at the request of the Fed to make sure our systems were linked with their systems, and it was for a de minimis amount of money.” Peter J. Wallison, a member of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, then asked, “you never had to use it after that?”
“No, and as I said, we used it on the Fed’s request,” Cohn replied.
I’m waiting for the EPA to announce that cesium is good for you.
yo (134)-
This just in: it’s ok to lie under oath if you’re a bankster.
re # 135 – They renamed it Potassium last week.
How much radioactive material was released into the atmosphere by coal burning power plants today?
Grim – There is no strontium or cesium or plutonium coming from the coal plants, just 1 part per million of uranium and 2 parts per million of thorium in coal ash. It is more than clear that a single nuclear accident widely offsets any “gains” obtained by using a nuclear plant instead of a coal plant. How about a nice nuclear accident every 25 years or so irradiating an area half the size of New Jersey and making it uninhabitable for many eons? It would not be too long before we run out of places to live.
Here is an exposure chart, on the left in blue is from coal plants.
http://xkcd.com/radiation/
We can and should brake the Uranium cartels and the Nuke Weapons dealers and do away with the nastier Uranium and Plutonium nuclear tech and move to Thorium designs which are safer and in an accident would not release large amount of alpha, beta and gamma emitters and no plutonium would be produced at all.
Debt- Barry Bonds should convert to be a bank holding company
They are fighting for our freedom.
Immigration is our country’s future
Protectionism never works
Real Estate is how the rich get rich
If you don’t vote, you can’t complain
We have always been at war with East Asia
Where is the facebook like link ?
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oh, forgot:
Its not the heat, its the humidity.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1RxKW-P5V8&feature=related
This woman makes my knees weak. Amazing recap of todays issues in 7 minutes.
I just got an e-mail about Atlas Shrugged movie coming out on 4/15. A must see, I hear.
Why aren’t Americans being told the truth about the economy? We’re heading in the direction of a double dip – but you’d never know it if you listened to the upbeat messages coming out of Wall Street and Washington.
Consumers are 70 percent of the American economy, and consumer confidence is plummeting. It’s weaker today on average than at the lowest point of the Great Recession.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey shows a 10 point decline in March – the tenth largest drop on record. Part of that drop is attributable to rising fuel and food prices. A separate Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence, just released, shows consumer confidence at a five-month low — and a large part is due to expectations of fewer jobs and lower wages in the months ahead.
Pessimistic consumers buy less. And fewer sales spells economic trouble ahead.
What about the 192,000 jobs added in February? (We’ll know more Friday about how many jobs were added in March.) It’s peanuts compared to what’s needed. Remember, 125,000 new jobs are necessary just to keep up with a growing number of Americans eligible for employment. And the nation has lost so many jobs over the last three years that even at a rate of 200,000 a month we wouldn’t get back to 6 percent unemployment until 2016.
But isn’t the economy growing again – by an estimated 2.5 to 2.9 percent this year? Yes, but that’s even less than peanuts. The deeper the economic hole, the faster the growth needed to get back on track. By this point in the so-called recovery we’d expect growth of 4 to 6 percent.
Consider that back in 1934, when it was emerging from the deepest hole of the Great Depression, the economy grew 7.7 percent. The next year it grew over 8 percent. In 1936 it grew a whopping 14.1 percent.
Add two other ominous signs: Real hourly wages continue to fall, and housing prices continue to drop. Hourly wages are falling because with unemployment so high, most people have no bargaining power and will take whatever they can get. Housing is dropping because of the ever-larger number of homes people have walked away from because they can’t pay their mortgages. But because homes the biggest asset most Americans own, as home prices drop most Americans feel even poorer.
There’s no possibility government will make up for the coming shortfall in consumer spending. To the contrary, government is worsening the situation. State and local governments are slashing their budgets by roughly $110 billion this year. The federal stimulus is ending, and the federal government will end up cutting some $30 billion from this year’s budget.
In other words: Watch out. We may avoid a double dip but the economy is slowing ominously, and the booster rockets are disappearing.
So why aren’t we getting the truth about the economy? For one thing, Wall Street is buoyant – and most financial news you hear comes from the Street. Wall Street profits soared to $426.5 billion last quarter, according to the Commerce Department. (That gain more than offset a drop in the profits of non-financial domestic companies.) Anyone who believes the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill put a stop to the Street’s creativity hasn’t been watching.
To the extent non-financial companies are doing well, they’re making most of their money abroad. Since 1992, for example, G.E.’s offshore profits have risen $92 billion, from $15 billion (which is one reason it pays no U.S. taxes). In fact, the only group that’s optimistic about the future are CEOs of big American companies. The Business Roundtable’s economic outlook index, which surveys 142 CEOs, is now at its highest point since it began in 2002.
Washington, meanwhile, doesn’t want to sound the economic alarm. The White House and most Democrats want Americans to believe the economy is on an upswing.
Republicans, for their part, worry that if they tell it like it is Americans will want government to do more rather than less. They’d rather not talk about jobs and wages, and put the focus instead on deficit reduction (or spread the lie that by reducing the deficit we’ll get more jobs and higher wages).
I’m sorry to have to deliver the bad news, but it’s better you know.
Robert Reich
“We get inflation that cannot be explained away.” -James Grant
Make Money,
I love the novel Atlas Shrugged, and there’s no way that movie can live up to it. The clips I’ve seen of it make me want to wince. Soap opera acting. I know a few people who saw it at a NYC preview, and said it’s not awful, but I have absolutely no desire to see it.
Strontium,
Builds strong bodies. Ask for it at your local grocery store.
Sorry I missed Santelli go apeshit this morning. He really gets going at about 2:20:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/more-relentless-bs-bls-and-princeton-forces-santelli-snap
Oblivion draws nearer.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. — After a five-day tryout proved he was a good teammate who lacked enough soccer skills, NFL star Chad Ochocinco got what he was hoping for Tuesday — a spot on the reserve team for Sporting Kansas City.
Now I know what Grim’s been doing on his forays to Poland.
Better lay low for awhile, pal. :)
(AP)- Hooliganism is causing a “huge image problem” for 2012 European Championship co-host Poland, with every round of league matches having been marred by trouble, a UEFA executive said Wednesday.
The Polish authorities have vowed to adopt a zero-tolerance approach toward hooliganism.
But the ongoing struggle to end violence among Polish fans was highlighted Friday when 60 were detained after clashing with police in Lithuania around an exhibition. Bottles, flares and benches were thrown at police and security guards. One guard was injured.
“We are looking very carefully at the situation because there are many activities on the hooligan scene in Poland,” UEFA’s Euro 2012 operations director Martin Kallen told the SoccerEx conference Wednesday. “What we saw at last Friday’s match was not a very good picture to see that happening in a stadium.”
Poland, which is co-hosting the tournament with Ukraine, has announced plans to use fast-track trials by video linkup during the tournament. Fans also have to be part of a central database to buy tickets, in an effort to deny potential troublemakers.
“On the hooligan side, we are concerned but I also know the Polish government is concerned,” Kallen said. “They know they have a problem — they have a huge image problem. There are always hooligans around every match day in the league but the government is making the right steps for the future.”
Clot 151 Classic Santelli, gotta love it. Take the time out for this one folks, I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.
Thank you Burce, well said.
Bruce Springsteen Letter to the Editor: Story on poverty, aid cuts gives voice to voiceless
http://www.app.com/article/20110331/NJOPINION02/103310303
“Why aren’t Americans being told the truth about the economy? We’re heading in the direction of a double dip – but you’d never know it if you listened to the upbeat messages coming out of Wall Street and Washington.”
Yome,
Double dip? More like a single scoop depression. Bet the house, then borrow as much as you can against the house, take the contra trade vs. WS and DC. Come 2015-2017, you’ll be in the chips. 100-1, all will say how did you see this coming, how did we miss this? Wash, rinse, repeat.
Debt [151],
The double or nothing’s have never put their b#lls on the line. Why these academics, sorry puppets, are in charge of monetary policy reminds me of Abbot & Costello. That said, I pray that they are my contra party.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sShMA85pv8M
“Thank you Burce, well said.”
Shut up Bruce, let’s hear Jungleland.
“We can afford to lose money — even a lot of money. But we can’t afford to lose reputation — even a shred of reputation.”
Buffett
Folksy? Aw shucks? Brilliant?
PT Barnum is spinning.
BC that you? Sure sounds like you.
The end is nigh (Swine Edition):
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