From Fortune:
America’s most stubborn home sellers
Homeowners in certain cities are more likely to quickly reduce their price than others. And where are the sellers most resistant to price reductions? New York City, of course.
…
In many cities across America, home affordability has returned to pre-bubble levels, making real estate look like a bargain (see Top 10 cities for home buyers). But aside from big-time investors snatching up properties at lower prices, few people are actually buying amid high unemployment and tighter lending standards. In fact, in cities outside major metros with high foreclosure rates, sellers this Spring will likely cut their asking price — not once, but twice.On average, U.S. home sellers will reduce their list prices after about 2.5 months, or 79 days on the market, by 8%, according to a new report by real estate website Trulia.com. After making one reduction, 35% of these sellers will make a second.
Not every city has been enduring the long slog, however. Sellers in America’s 50 largest cities have been more aggressive and quicker to make the first price reduction than the rest of the country, according to Trulia’s analysis of non-foreclosure listings of residential properties between March 2010 and 2011. Minneapolis, MN led as the state quickest to slash prices at an average of 45 days, followed by major cities in California such as Oakland and Sacramento ranging from 49 to 53 days.
Tara Nicholle-Nelson, Trulia’s residential real-estate expert, says the difference in urban areas has less to do with demand than with negotiating tactics. Urban sellers may be more aware that they need to negotiate downward than suburban and rural homeowners and may be able to afford to put the certainty of sale over money. These cities tend to discount their listings by slightly less than the national average at 7% and have a higher probability, 42%, of reducing their listing price again.
…
Detroit, with an average discount of 19%, led with the nation’s deepest price cuts during the initial listing, followed by other foreclosure hotspots including Miami, FL with 11%, Columbus, OH with 11%, Baltimore, MD with 10%, and Atlanta, GA with 9%. Since these areas are already gravely depressed, the deep cuts could likely have long-lasting impacts on future home values.
…
And what Trulia calls the most “stubborn” sellers often waiting the longest, 80 days, before cutting the initial listing price, are New York City, followed by El Paso, TX, Charlotte, NC, Cleveland, OH, Raleigh, NC, Louisville, KY, Kansas City, MO and Memphis, TN ranging from 70 to 79 days.
From the Press of Atlantic City:
Housing recovery will be slow, experts tell builders at convention in Atlantic City
The national economy is making a slow recovery, but it will be several years until housing construction will boom again, two experts told the New Jersey Builders Association on Tuesday.
The demand for single-family homes in the suburbs will go down as homebuyers seek housing in more densely populated areas closer to their jobs, economist Joel Naroff and real estate analyst Jeffrey Otteau told about 100 people at the Trump Taj Mahal Casino Resort for the start of the 62nd annual Atlantic Builders Convention.
Naroff predicted the national economy will pick up by the end of the year, assuming oil prices stabilize.
When recessions end, the housing and financial markets are usually among the first sectors to rebound, Naroff said. But that is not the case this time, as more homes than necessary were built during the bubble and banks suffered in the crash.
“We probably have another 12 to 24 months before the banks are in a position to do any significant lending,” said Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. “We all wanted the hare. We got the tortoise, but the reality is the tortoise will make it to the finish line.”
…
Otteau, too, said the recovery from the recession will take longer than in the past.
New Jersey is “a very different picture” from the rest of the country, and things look better for the northern part of the state than for southern New Jersey, Otteau said.
For example, the United States economy gained 1.4 million jobs in 2010, but New Jersey lost 6,500 jobs, Otteau said. When the state and its counties and municipalities lay off employees to balance their budgets, that means more people who cannot afford homes and mortgages.
New Jersey lost its competitive edge, and now has the highest corporate tax rates in the country and zoning laws that create an unfriendly climate for new businesses, he said. Meanwhile, residents are moving out and taking their assets with them.
“We’ve generally sent out a message that employers are just not wanted here, and employers have gotten the message,” said Otteau, of East Orange, Essex County. “Last year, New Jersey overtook Michigan as having more people leave the state than anywhere else in the country.”
There is a better outlook for northern New Jersey, as a lot of federal stimulus money went to New York City, which created well-paying jobs, Otteau said. The northern New Jersey housing market is recovering well, as people seek homes within an easy commute of Manhattan.
From Seneca and Hughes (via NJ Spotlight):
Opinion: The Recession Is Over, but Good NJ Jobs Still Scarce
As 2011 unfolds, New Jersey is slowly starting to escape the oppressive national clutches of the Great 2007-2009 Recession. One of the key aspects of this recovery is a small uptick in employment. While the state’s employment recovery is lagging the nation’s, at least it’s finally on the economic mend.
That recovery, however, does bear scrutiny.
As jobs have been created — in New Jersey and in the nation as a whole — they are often in below-average-paying industries like waste management, wholesale and resale trade, and healthcare and food services. The white-collar service sector has yet to be a full participant in the employment recovery. A key question now is whether–or, more optimistically, when — it will.
The place to start, as always, is with the numbers.
The Great Recession officially started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. With newly revised employment data released in February and March of this year, a final autopsy can now be made.
In 2008, the first year of the recession, the United States lost 3.8 million private-sector jobs. This was the worst employment-loss year since payroll employment statistics were first compiled in 1939. That same year, New Jersey lost 108,300 private-sector jobs, the second worst employment-loss year ever for our state, surpassed only by the 136,800 jobs lost in 1990 as the result of a statewide real estate bust.
In 2009, the nation lost nearly 5 million private-sector jobs. Technically, the recession ended in June 2009 and was followed by six months of recovery. Nevertheless, 2009 supplanted 2008 as the nation’s worst employment-loss year. Also in 2009, New Jersey shed 117,700 private-sector jobs. Thus, 2009 replaced 2008 as the second worst employment-loss year in the state.
…
The employment hemorrhage was finally staunched in 2010. The United States, digging out from a somewhat deeper employment hole, had a job growth rate in 2010 of just over 1 percent, while New Jersey had a gain of just 0.2 percent. Part of this difference is due to a very strong national manufacturing recovery, a sector of the economy in which New Jersey is now severely underrepresented.
Despite the clear turnaround, a long road back lies ahead for both the United States and New Jersey.
Good Morning New Jersey
From the WSJ:
Housing Bubble Continues to Haunt Fed
Americans’ love affair with housing is over. But, ironically, deflation of the bubble risks fueling consumer-price inflation.
Shelter costs account for 32% of the overall consumer-price index and about 40% of core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy. The tightening rental market, as fewer Americans opt to buy homes, is a key reason why core inflation stopped declining last year and is moving higher.
But there is a debate over how shelter costs are calculated and whether rents carry too much weight. The biggest component of shelter is so-called “owners’ equivalent rent,” which is an approximation of what homeowners would pay to rent their property. The measure is calculated using rental increases and doesn’t factor in changes in house prices or mortgage payments, even though most people in the U.S. own their homes. Europe’s official inflation measure uses just rents. The U.K.’s approach blends rents with other factors such as mortgage rates.
…
Some suggest alternative inflation measures. A “supercore” alternative excludes not just food and energy but shelter, too, to gauge underlying trends. Yet this would hardly sit well with most Americans, who already feel the Fed is ignoring the run-up in food and energy costs and know housing is a huge cost.
…
The boost to inflation this year may be partly due to a quirk of the housing market, but the upward pressure will nevertheless be difficult for the Fed to ignore.
Supercore?
Sounds like inflation ex. inflation
One of the biggest loads of crap I’ve read in a while..
From CNN/Money:
Prices are low! Mortgages cheap! But you can’t get one
Talk about a comp killer… 9.5 million dollar loss.
From Providence Business News:
Nicolas Cage sells Middletown mansion for $6.2 million to Massachusetts couple
Actor Nicolas Cage has finally sold his Middletown mansion. The 27-acre estate sold for $6.2 million on Friday, according to town records and Lila Delman Real Estate.
…
Cage’s Hancock Park Real Estate Trust had most recently listed the property for $7.75 million. The trust had purchased the property for $15.7 million in July 2007.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Loan Delinquencies Fall as Consumers Manage Debt, ABA Says
U.S. consumer-loan delinquencies dropped in the fourth-quarter as consumers managed debt and the unemployment rate fell, the American Bankers Association said.
Overall delinquencies across eight loan categories fell to 2.68 percent of all accounts in the three months ended Dec. 31 from 3.01 percent in the prior quarter, the ABA said today in its Consumer Credit Delinquency Bulletin. Overdue payments on home-equity loans held steady at 4.05 percent and bank-card delinquencies dropped to the lowest level in almost a decade.
“Consumers are in better control of their finances and there are more people who are employed, and that means they have new sources of income that make it easier to meet their financial obligations,” James Chessen, the ABA’s chief economist, said in a telephone interview.
Trulia: New York area sellers “stubborn”
We have bike paths here!
#1 – “Joel Naroff and real estate analyst Jeffrey Otteau told about 100 people at the Trump Taj Mahal Casino Resort for the start of the 62nd annual Atlantic Builders Convention.”
100 people? Does that even qualify as a convention?
Wow. We’ve all been waiting five years for an article about stubborn ny sellers. Its going to be a good day.
Yesterday I thought of all the discussions on NJRER about buyers making an offer on a property and suddenly another offer appeared from nowhere. I have an REO in Hackensack right next to the sound wall behind the Rt 17 Home Depot. Had about 30 showings in 15 DOM and not one offer, not even a low ball. Within 20 minutes I received 3 offers yesterday afternoon. A cash offer for 50% of ask and 2 FHA 203k offers for 85% and 92% of ask. All I could think of was Moose squealing about foul play and lying used house salespeople.
30 year (10)-
The 100 people they talked to were playing hold ’em in the casino’s card room.
30 year (12)-
Usually, when I think about him, it revolves around two thoughts:
1. Stupid is forever.
2. Where you sit is where you stand.
Warm weather, Portugal, social security money used to purchase defaulting sovereign debt, default, bailout, elections and no leader. Sounds like a good recipe for riots.
“Earlier today Portugal, by the skin of its teeth, sold €1 billion in 6 and 12 month Bills, which however may be its last auction before the country is forced to beg for a bailout: the yield on the 6 Month bill rose from 2.984% three weeks ago to 5.117%, while the 12 Month surged from 4.311% to 5.902%. This is simply a ridiculous yield and at this rate pretty soon the country will be paying more to issue Bills than Bonds. “I suspect that as far as the market is concerned, funding at these levels can only be viewed as a temporary measure,” said Peter Chatwell, rate strategist at Credit Agricole. “There has been a very important signal from the banks for the future,” said BNP Paribas analyst Ioannis Sokos. “Portugal can still make it through April, but probably won’t get to June without a bailout.” Which incidentally is when the country is going to have new government elections: cruising through a period of insolvency without a man in charge is probably not the best idea. But what is worst is that the country’s social security fund is once again rumored to have been a buyer of last resort. Since these bonds will eventually default, Portugal’s pensioners will not be happy to find out that a notable portion of their retirement capital will soon be wiped out.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/portugal-outtahere-country-sells-6-month-bills-ridiculous-5117-12-month-5902
13 – don’t underestimate the drawing power of a free buffet
Shore,
from the NYT article on fukushima
Even so, the engineers who prepared the document do not believe that a resumption of criticality is an immediate likelihood, Neil Wilmshurst, vice president of the nuclear sector at the Electric Power Research Institute, said when contacted about the document. “I have seen no data to suggest that there is criticality ongoing,” said Mr. Wilmshurst, who was involved in the assessment.
That is some serious misinformation right there. TEPCO has already acknowledged recriticalities in reactor 1 and the isotopic analysis of the cooling water outlet shows increasing concentrations of chlorine-36 (with a 3o min half-life) and tellurium-132. These 2 isotopes can only be increasing and can only be found iin any measurable degree if criticality is occurring.
The engineers in the article have access to way more info then we do and there is now way they can honestly make that statement.
if the engineers int he articel are being accurate about there being virtually no cooling in reactor one then there is no way to avoid a complete meltdown. They may also be causing more problems by having the water level constantly increasing then decreasing. Due to the oxidation of the zirconium cladding, they are rapidly creating a rubble pile of fuel elements at the bottom of the reactor vessel. This pile will prevent water from circulating around the rubble pile full of fuel elements and accelerate the meltdown and criticality process.
Did you see the images i e-mailed you? unless something was producing an artificial orangish/greenish visual effect, there may be fuel rods still laying in the open.
They appear to still doing more damage the they are good. The incompetence is astounding so far.
The other problem here is that their action to date is reactionary, not proactive. When dealing with this situation you must act proactively as trying to act reactivly is next to useless.
Given the news from the last 2 days that the cooling systems in reactors 5 & 6 are in danger of failing they would be well advised to immediately empty the fuel rods from both reactors, their SFPs and the large common spent fuel pool ( you dont hear them talk about this) to a safe offsite location. This would be a very large undertaking but should be done since if they loose cooling on those this disaster could become worse by an order of magnitude.
Sbarro filing for Ch. 11 bankruptcy protection
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sbarro-filing-for-Ch-11-apf-2965568061.html?x=0
I just can’t believe a company selling a quality product like Sbarro’s delicious pizza is going bankrupt.
The northern New Jersey housing market is recovering well, as people seek homes within an easy commute of Manhattan.
Ok, so explain why 9 of 10 listings I receive daily have the words “price change” on them? And what does “easy commute” mean? If you live 10 miles west of Manhattan, you need to give yourself a minimum of 3 hours per day in commute time.
“Last year, New Jersey overtook Michigan as having more people leave the state than anywhere else in the country.”
I thought he just said the housing market in Northern NJ is recovering? Otteau, do you listen to yourself?
NJRERE is kicking Sbarro’s ass.
The recovery is in full bloom:
McDonalds aims to fill 50,000 jobs –> http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2011/04/05/mcdonalds_aims_to_fill_50000_jobs/
HE (18)-
Sbarro has fueled more road trips than any other junk food known to man. Woe is us.
Where, oh where will I now get my empty carbs, grease-emitting cheese and preservative-laden sauce?
This is a big chance for Nathan’s to take over the interstate rest stop leadership in foodservice.
Sbarro’s pizza is fluffy…and ketchup-y….
Speaking of ketchup — Right after I got here I ordered some spaghetti with marinara sauce and I got egg noodles and ketchup. I’m an average nobody. I get to live the rest of my life like a schnook.
Ket,
I agree that they need to remove the fuel rods and said so a few days ago. Doing so from the cores may or may not be possible at the moment given the rad levels and likely desrtuction of the buildings’ cranes but, for sure the spent fuel pools should be emptied of rods.
I hear you, Henry. I hear you. Can’t even get a decent slice around here. Gotta wait for the summer for a slice on the boardwalk. Side note, Mexicans don’t make great pizza.
Barbara, everytime I saw your posts, I smile. Always informative and sometimes wrapped in a thin layer of sarcasm. :)
Shore
yesterday TEPCO. Admitted that radiation levels around the reactors was “immeasurable” (ie thier meters were maxed out). First, that is BS, there are a number of ways to get an accurate reading even if that happens. Secondly, you don’t get readings like that unless you have spent fuel rids scattered about and/or recriticality occuring. You also don’t get the reports of intermittent blue flashes and neutron beams with criticality occuring
There is a better outlook for northern New Jersey, as a lot of federal stimulus money went to New York City, which created well-paying jobs, Otteau said.
I must have missed this somewhere
Given the level of disinformation you have to wonder how close they may be to a corium steam explosion
gary,
thank you. We are all schnooks now. Henry was a gangster prophet. Instead of ketchup and egg noodles its granite and Pergo.
Shore
yesterday TEPCO. Admitted that radiation levels around the reactors was unmeasurabl (ie thier meters were maxed out). First, that is BS, there are a number of ways to get an accurate reading even if that happens. Secondly, you don’t get readings like that unless you have spent fuel rids scattered about and/or recriticality occuring. You also don’t get the reports of intermittent blue flashes and neutron beams with criticality occuring
Moose stands in a toilet?
Debt Supernova says:
April 6, 2011 at 7:22 am
30 year (12)- Usually, when I think about him, it revolves around two thoughts:
1. Stupid is forever.
2. Where you sit is where you stand.
vodka (30)-
What is the worst possible outcome at Fukushima? That is what we should be expecting.
gary (19)
You are right that even 10 miles west of Manhattan requires a 3 hour per day commute but where I am looking (Union County “prime”), it doesn’t seem to bother the buyers.
I can’t say with confidence just yet that the market is “on fire”. I don’t think it is here but I would say any non-outrageously priced property is moving fast. There are homes that have been and continue to be overpriced by 20% with no or minimal price drops that sit. There are never-been-updated small house on small lot homes that are overpriced by even 5-10% that are not getting any action. Anything else is going into Atny Review or Under Contract at a decent pace.
Can’t speak to closing prices yet because most of these homes have July closings so it will be a while before the “going rate” is established.
Grim 4
food and energy but shelter
The 3 items needed to function in society. How about we make the “supercore” based only on the inflationary trends of these 3? That might be inconvenient though.
Shore 26
Reactor 5&6 are fully intact. Those are the ones in which they should be removing the cores and spent fuel as rapidly as possible. There are cracks in the reactor 5&6 buildings that are threatening the cooling systems, as radioactive water is reported to be leaking IN through the cracks. If those systems go down we could have 2 more reactors exploding!
I have serious questions as to what % of the fuel rods are still left in each of the SFPs. They denied that any of the fuel rods could have been ejected in the explosions, but and suddenly acknowledging that there are spent fuel rods laying in the open…..
Go back and look at the explosion of reactor 3. there was a massive amount of debris in that explosion unlike reactor 1’s explosion. They are also being very tight-lipped about reactor 4 which is concerning since it is reported that most of, if no all of the reactor core was placed into the SFP for reactor maintenance prior to the disaster.
Debt 33
worst case is a corium steam explosion combined with inland winds. a very large swath of Honshu ( the Japanese main island) becomes uninhabitable and reactors 5 & 6 explode/see partial meltdown. The reactor site would probably become to radioactive to approach for years.
I’m not saying that will happen, but that is worst case. This is still a possible outcome although there is not enough public information to reasonably guess how plausible this may or may not be. Such a worst case event could essentially depopulate a large part of japan.
Moreover, roughly 110 million people learn French as a second or third language.
Can Trulia be right? To date in 2011, only 2 homes sales in Maplewood, NJ?
http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Maplewood-New_Jersey/
down 96.7%?
banny (39)-
I’d take my chances living near Fukushima before I’d live in Maplewood.
Right on cue:
“This will not be news for most objective Zero Hedge readers as we indicated this is a distinct possibility on several occasions, but some of those more “skeptical” about reality would be interested to know that according to Reuters “the core at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear reactor has melted through the reactor pressure vessel”, Democratic Congressman Edward Markey told a hearing on the nuclear disaster on Wednesday. “I have been informed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that the core of Unit Two has gotten so hot that part of it has probably melted through the reactor pressure vessel,” said Markey, a prominent nuclear critic in the House of Representatives. Surely there is some bullish spin to this. We are too tired to look for it though.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fukushima-reactor-2-core-has-melted-through-reactor
30-yr [12];
A cash offer for 50% of ask and 2 FHA 203k offers for 85% and 92% of ask.
FHA? My first thought is “Oh great, I just bought ANOTHER overpriced house.”
But look at the objective facts. Someone with money bid 50%. At least two people who don’t have two nickels to rub together bit id up to 85% and 92%. Naturally the people buying the house with my money won, and set the market expectations for the next delusional seller. This is where we are in America. Stupidest Bidder Auction.
But I have no doubt that the “buyer’s” agent worked the phones as soon as that half-off offer came in to prod their charges to jump in head first 35%+ higher then the competing bid.
Con’t [42];
But I’m sure you’d say that the FHA bidders were better served by having keen professional insight on their side.
(42) Its time to admit to yourself and your family that you are never going to own a home.
This fairy tale market that you are wishing for is not going to be here for another 20-30 years, and even then it won’t resemble anything close to your 90% off wet dream.
Most people on this board are looking for fair value, you on the other hand are looking for a fire sale. I’ll spare you the 20 years of anguish; towns with a good school system in a desirable location won’t have fire sales, and if they do, you can rest assured they won’t resemble a town that you want to live in.
The end is nigh (Corporate Law Edition):
NEWARK, N.J. — Federal authorities have charged two men with running an insider trading scheme that netted more than $30 million with information stolen from law firms.
Garrett Bauer is scheduled to appear in U.S. District Court in Newark, N.J., on Wednesday afternoon. Matthew Kluger will make his first appearance in federal court in Alexandria, Va.
They’re accused of trading on inside information stolen from Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, a law firm with offices in Washington, D.C., New York, San Francisco and Hong Kong.
Authorities also allege the decades-long scheme used information stolen from prominent New York law firms Cravath Swaine & Moore and Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom.
#119 Nom (previous thread)
Here is the GE issue summed up in three paragraphs from CNN. I wonder if the spokeswoman kept her job after this howler.
That left GE (GE, Fortune 500) with no U.S. profit left for Uncle Sam to tax. Corporations typically face a 35% federal income tax on their earnings. Thanks to its deductions and adjustments, GE reported an actual U.S. federal income tax rate of negative 10.5%. It got to add a “tax benefit” of $1.1 billion back into its reported earnings.
“This is the first time in at least decades that GE has reported negative U.S. pretax income and it reflects the worst economy since the Great Depression,” Anne Eisele, GE’s director of financial communications, said via e-mail.
But what about the $10.8 billion profit overseas? GE is “indefinitely” deferring income tax payments on those profits, Eisele said.
NJSef [44];
Its time to admit to yourself and your family that you are never going to own a home.
At current pricing, I can live with that.
Most people on this board are looking for fair value
What do you consider fair value? How do you measure value, and what are you comparing to?
Debt,
And to think that reactor 2 is the most intact of the 4 reactors…….
I guess this guy is regretting his article a bit.
Josef Oehmen, MIT Professor:
“Why I am not worried about Japan’s nuclear reactors.”
I commented about a year ago hearing about this in Florida…
http://www2.tbo.com/content/2011/apr/05/051437/realtors-foreclosure-purchase-angers-potential-buy/news-money/
[49] Joyce – that stuff has been going on for years … it’s a corrupt industry.
This is going to be very ugly.
http://www.northjersey.com/news/119199629_Towns_get_the_word_out_on_referendum.html
#44Towns with a good school system in a desirable location won’t have fire sales, and if they do, you can rest assured they won’t resemble a town that you want to live in.
Really? time will tell. You might want to tajke a look at the link I posted on #51.
Anon No.47 I’ll explain fair value for him. When an outsourced individual making $9.50 an hour can purchase it. He needs to admit to himself and family he’s never going to sell his home. As the headline states “stubborn sellers”. Just hold on to it the market will come back when the contracted out individual gets a raise to $10.00 an hour. Dumb butt sellers.
Moose – You want everyone to assume that every buyer is a moron who can be controlled by evil Realtors. Can we agree that the buyer’s agent is supposed to communicate the multi offer situation? Can we also agree that 90+ percent of people are wise enough not just to take an Realtor’s advice that “it’s a great deal”?
Already got back 2 highest/best offers. The highest initial offer is still the highest and yet to be heard from.
Objectively this is not a bad place to be doing a 203k. In this moment in time the price is more than fair and buyer will hedge his future depreciation if he doesn’t go overboard with repairs. Beats the hell out of 96.5% LTV loans in South Ward Newark.
If anyone truly hates realtors, than I assume that at some point, they may have purchased real estate, that turned out to be a bad choice. Rather than blame themselves, they blame the realtor, or the entire industry.
At the end of the day they buyer has the final say, yes or no.
30yr 54
Can we also agree that 90+ percent of people are wise enough not just to take an Realtor’s advice that “it’s a great deal”?
90% seems like a highly optimistic # given how many people have been tell me for years that “Its a great time to buy”, “buy now we are the bottom”. Of course that is just my personal experience.
100% of people who bought with a realtor overpaid by a minimum of 6%. People will only hire a realtor if at a minimum they can get at least 6% more than if they did a FSBO. So lets take a typical 500K house, well you overpaid 30K at closing, but wait over a 30 year loan you pay triple the amount if you financed so that is actually 90K. Even better closing costs are based on mortgage amount so you got hit with extra fees and finally the assesors office bases taxes on sale prices so you get assess at 500K although if you back out realtor fee you only paid 470K for house.
I have nothing against realtors, if I am a seller and she brings me 6% more heck the work to sell she did for free. If she gets more than 6% than I can get myself I am making money. If I am a buyer a realtor is like a used car salesman.
And don’t say I can avoid them, in certain rich towns must list with their friendly snooty local realtor for the choice houses. I am forced to pay the toll.
So What Who Cares?? (formerly 3b) says:
April 6, 2011 at 2:26 pm
If anyone truly hates realtors, than I assume that at some point, they may have purchased real estate, that turned out to be a bad choice. Rather than blame themselves, they blame the realtor, or the entire industry.
At the end of the day they buyer has the final say, yes or no.
Ket/37; You’re starting to sound like me but you’re still too optimistic. It can always get worse. Worst case is another quake, Japan sinks into the sea, Pacific glows in the dark.
(47) I am in no way positing that anything on this market even resembles fair value. Prices are still inflated and will stay that way in most desirable areas. Anything resembling value continues to be snapped up quickly.
Its going to be a long slow slog downward. The bankers and our government have more or less assured us of that.
The question is, how long can you wait?
I only follow orders of realtors when they are 6′ blonde nordic women in 5″ thigh high boots and a leather boustier.
#60
Sounds like you have a winnner!!
203k is not a lot of scratch especially at 5%, I firmly believe that the values should be driven by market affordability. With that kind of price it sounds like less money than renting. With the looming possibility of inflation will be the home-debtors friend and the renters enemy. I have seen some real crap realtors, but it is a cop out to blame a purchase on one, people need to be responsible for their decisions as well as informed. My issue with realtors I’ve dealt with is their ability to get the deal done without screwing up.
DJ Obama Admin Says IRS Would Shut Down If Budget Not Passed
Are they trying to encourage a shutdown?
Gas prices rise along with oil
Gas prices have risen for 15 days straight days and are getting closer to the all-time high of $4.114 a gallon, reached in July 2008.
The average price of unleaded jumped 2.2 cents overnight to $3.707 a gallon, according to motorist group AAA. In the past three weeks alone, prices have jumped 4%. Year to date, gas prices are up a whopping 20%.
And it’s not even summer driving season yet, when prices tend to peak for the year
Good thing Gas doesn’t effect cost of living.
confused who needs gas to live? The US government certainly doesn’t think so or else they would calculate it along with food in core inflation rates
The question is, how long can you wait?
[ Insert big smile here ]
tick… tick… tick… tick…
*DJ Obama Admin: Roughly 800,000 Govt Employees Would Be Affected By Shutdown
if the government shuts down and three is no noticeable difference do those 800K jobs really need to exist?
Are they trying to encourage a shutdown?
It is my best guess that this is indeed a game of chicken that will result in a government shutdown. Repubs have offered a “one week continuing resolution” to which the president has said is not even worth the effort.
My guess is that come Friday things are going to get very very ugly.
Question for JJ. The elimination of the muni bond interest tax exemption is being talked about again. Any thoughts on the likelihood of this, and what happens to muni bonds if this comes to pass?
Nicholas
Sweet, i just picked up another 1000 rounds of ammo.
[62] “With the looming possibility of inflation will be the home-debtors friend and the renters enemy.”
If (when?) non-wage inflation rears its ugly head, what will happen to interest rates on mortgages? What will that do to home prices? It doesn’t seem that wages are going to be inflating anytime in the near or mid-term future.
How much longer can the U.S. government subsidize the housing market, with the kind of deficits we are running?
How high will property taxes in NJ inflate before things are brought under control?
I have no idea; and these are just the tips of a few of the many icebergs out there. There is a huge amount of uncertainty right now.
[44] “Its time to admit to yourself and your family that you are never going to own a home. ”
It might also be time for him to admit that he’ll manage to save enough to retire early, put his kids through college, and go enjoy life on that out-of-state beach house with all the money he saved by not buying an overpriced, overtaxed house in NJ.
362 203k is OK, but it is Hackensack. The buyers could buy in Bergenfield or Dumont now in the 150k to 175K range, which is ironically where prices were in those towns in the late 80’s. Not great towns either but IMO certainly better than Hackensack.
Re: Japan.
International community’s silence is deafening. I know we are sending over some equipment but it seems like a more robust response is/was needed in light of what is at stake. Can’t help but wonder if there isn’t something to be gained by watching the wolrd’s third largest economy topple. Conspiratorial thinking in full effect.
How high will property taxes in NJ inflate before things are bought under control?
Try the link below for how high property taxes will inflate. The lsiting below can be yours with an anuual property tax bill of 15k. That is fifteen thousand dollars a year, before the you touch the mtg or $1,250.00 a month.
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1110085&dayssince=&countysearch=false
#69 They will trade like taxable corporates.
#66 gary Take a look at post 51. What with your like of blue ribbons and all.
30-yr [54];
Can we also agree that 90+ percent of people are wise enough not just to take an Realtor’s advice that “it’s a great deal”?
Did you just admit that a buyer’s agent will tell his ‘client’ “it’s a great deal” each and every time, and that buyers just need to be smart enough to know they’re lying?
Your honor, the prosecution rests.
I like cheese.
3b,
Looks like local government has managed to extract most of the value out of that house. Winning!
15,000/ yr property tax, assuming 2% annual tax increases, discounted at 5% (same as the avg mortgage) = present value of future tax payments of $500,000, greater than the list price of house.
As I’ve said before, nobody owns their house in NJ, you just rent from the govt/unions.
Pretty scary when your landlord is also in charge of the police and the ministry of propaganda (aka public schools).
[45] chifi
“Authorities also allege the decades-long scheme used information stolen from prominent New York law firms Cravath Swaine & Moore and Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom.”
I thought his name sounded familiar.
While I was at Skadden, one of these schemes got busted there. Turned out to be a legal assistant in the NYC office. Very amateur, and the firm helped the feds set up the sting.
I don’t see how there cannot be a shutdown, given the House rules, which requirre a bill to be posted online for three days before a vote. Do the math.
“That is fifteen thousand dollars a year, before the you touch the mtg or $1,250.00 a month.”
Those who are privileged enough to live so close to Manhattan find it an honor to pay such sums. How else would one measure one’s own worth?
Realtors aren’t a public service, they’re people earning a living. My realtor gave us information, not hype, and was very patient. We decided what to bid (and offer), not her, though she did give us some advice, that sometimes paid off. She gave us good advice on prepping our home for sale, and pricing it to actually get sold. I think her firm grossed about $35k on my 2 transactions combined – don’t know how much she kept, but I have no complaints, I’m not a frequent trader.
BTW, the spread on home transactions created by broker commissions appears to be roughly equivalent to the spread on gold coins, while the realtors offer a lot more time and service.
That and home mortgage interest is always thrown about.
Funny part is it would be a huge windfall for folks like me who have a good sized portfolio of tax free muni bonds. They could only implement it going forward. That would make the existing suppy of munis more valuable. I would love it. I would also love it if they killed the mortgage deduction, but no one has the balls to do that.
Zhang Fei says:
April 6, 2011 at 3:04 pm
Question for JJ. The elimination of the muni bond interest tax exemption is being talked about again. Any thoughts on the likelihood of this, and what happens to muni bonds if this comes to pass?
[46] fabius,
I am trying to figure out the point the writer was trying to make. It is rather muddled, except to point out that unrepatriated earnings are not taxed.
Also, a lot has been made of the refund that GE got. If they paid no taxes, why did they get a refund? Good question, and the answer may lie in a couple of areas.
First, corporations are required to pay estimated taxes IN EXCESS of their estimated tax liablity. That’s right. Every large corporation in the US is required by law to lend money to Uncle Sam. I am not sure, but the estimated tax requirement is something like 115% of estimated tax liability.
In GE’s case, they got hammered by GE Capital and the downturn. So revenues were less than estimated. Accordingly, they overpaid their taxes (which they would have done regardless because of the estimated tax payment requirements).
What happens to you when you overpay your taxes? You get a refund. Now, I have not examined this issue, but that was the first thing that I thought of when I heard they got money back.
In addition, there are net loss carryback provisions that allow a corporation to restate prior year’s taxes and claim additional refunds based on losses in the current year. So you may actually get a refund for a prior year because you are allowed to apply this year’s losses to last year’s income (I think you can go back two years, but I haven’t kept up with corporate taxation).
Fact is, these provisions have been around a while, and are used by lots of corporations. And no one has alleged that GE, or anyone else using these rules, broke the law. Hard to do when you consider that the IRS has an office at GE with examiners that audit GE’s books daily (a lot of large corporations have examiner’s in residence).
Bottom line is, if you don’t like the law, change it. And accept the consequences when you do.
[83] “Those who are privileged enough to live so close to Manhattan find it an honor to pay such sums. How else would one measure one’s own worth?”
I measure my worth in hours life wasted commuting from my “so close to Manhattan” home to my “in Manhattan” job. More precisely, I measure my worth by my commute of three hours each weekday, a total of ONE MONTH out of each year of my life spent commuting to/from work.
But indeed, I would feel even more privileged to be able to pay $15,000+ in taxes, in perpetuity, to add even more to the measurement of my own worth.
Although I sometimes forget what little Graydon and Ellergy look like, just knowing that they are one of those kids running around with blue ribbons pinned to their shirts warms my heart.
[45] chi fi
I was right. Kluger was in the same office as me, for about a year.
anybody want to join in my new Business? It’s a ground floor opportunity.
i am marketing a new Mineral Water that will be all the Rage.
name of the water will be “Becquerel” in honor of the EPA.
http://www.tennessean.com/article/20110316/NEWS08/110316027/1969/NEWS/Group-warns-EPA-ready-increase-radioactive-release-guidelines-?odyssey=nav|head
Re IRS shutdown
does this mean I can keep the 5 figure check I send to them this time every year?
Juice X. I’m a bit interested if it comes in a high energy-looking can with a pic of a cyclist on it and adverts claim that a minimum of 1% of content is 100% guaranteed to originate in Japanese seas.
I don’t understand all this stubbornness. It’s actually simple, when generation Y can finally afford to buy houses then the market will turn around, of course that is assuming they will be paid a salary which will cover the costs of home ownership.
“Happy Renter” is stupid, it has to be said. Do you expect to live or a community to exist free of property taxes? And have decent infrastructure & schools? If you work in Manhattan you should be making “Manhattan” caliber money, and there’s price to pay to live in Manhattan or just outside of it.
You can always move to Wichita, KS and that way not complain costs. But pricks like you want it both ways (1)Manhattan Money/Salary pay grade and (2) Des Moines, Iowa cost of living. That does not work. If you want the benefits of the Manhattan salary, guess what, you have to deal with congestion, traffic, $8 tolls, and high property taxes in NJ.
Move. It cost money to have a community like Oradell, NJ with excellent schools and parks and properties that sustain even the hard times and are not punished and drop like a rock (West Orange, Bloomfield, etc.) and only 8 miles or so from Manhattan.
If you rent, you pay property taxes, it’s factored in, you just don’t get the benefit.
yelsi [93];
If you rent, you pay property taxes, it’s factored in, you just don’t get the benefit.
Fool. My kids were zoned for the same schools that my landlord in the other half of the duplex sent their kids to. The garbage got picked up all the same. The cops came when the a friend’s car window was smashed. They never asked to see our name on the deed.
And when you back out the property taxes paid from my rent, my landlord’s rate of return on their sunk capital scrapes the bottom with long term CDs. Great investment strategy.
con’t [94];
It cost money to have a community like Oradell, NJ with excellent schools and parks and properties that sustain even the hard times and are not punished and drop like a rock (West Orange, Bloomfield, etc.) and only 8 miles or so from Manhattan.
You’re standing on your property in Oradell watching the tsunami roll over Bergenfield and Dumont, smug in the belief that you won’t be affected because “its different here”. I look forward to picking you bones clean.
#78 Moose – who are trying to fool? Take a salesperson at their word while spending hundreds of thousands of dollars? You wouldn’t trust your own mother for $50 bucks! What I wrote is just common sense. No wonder you don’t get it!
It cost money to have a community like Oradell, NJ with excellent schools and parks and properties that sustain even the hard times and are not punished and drop like a rock (West Orange, Bloomfield, etc.) and only 8 miles or so from Manhattan.
I know, it’s f*cking different here. What a bunch of bullsh1t. The property taxes are a scam and so are all the public sector, no-show f*cking jobs as well. For four years I worked for a municipality and I probably did two months of work in all that time. But… but… it’s for the children! And proximity to Manhattan? Manhattan type pay? What a laugh. At least 3 hours a day in commute time if not 5 just so Schmutzi could have more Abercrombie and Trash clothing.
anon.e.moose the clueless. the whole issue is how well managed a municipality is with the collected property taxes. managed well and right those taxes maintain and preserve a quality in everything (schools, parks, etc.) it’s an investment that appreciates the value of the property you purchased. guys like you don’t respond to the real world. you don’t accept there is a need for snow removal, caring for parks, attracting talented teachers, having clean sidewalks an pot hole free roads.
managed poorly and you get west orange. managed well and you get oradell, nj, and the home owners profit handsomely as the municipality is highly desireable.
I yeah, I forgot… it’s competitive here. That’s code to justify the daily reem job we receive convincing ourselves it feels wonderful. And before any of you m’fers wanna dispute me and tell me I’m jealous or whatever horsesh!t we wanna spew, I’ll say this: I’m one m’fing check away from being completely debt free, if I choose. That means mortgage completely paid off!!
“If you know someone that believes that the U.S. economy is in great shape, just show that person the following statistics. But please don’t show these statistics to anyone that is feeling depressed or that has just lost a job – it might push such a person over the edge.
The sad truth is that the U.S. economy is in the midst of a long-term decline and it is coming apart at the seams. Right now the Obama administration and the Federal Reserve are attempting to “paper over” our economic problems with massive amounts of government debt and paper currency, but in the end it is not going to work. When you analyze the numbers objectively, it leads to the inescapable conclusion that we are headed for another Great Depression.
That is a very depressing thought, but there is no denying that decades of debt and incredibly bad decisions are starting to catch up with us. The economic pain that is coming is going to be absolutely mind blowing.
It would be nice if our politicians and our business leaders suddenly started making incredibly wise decisions so that we could bring the U.S. economy in for a “soft landing”, but the chance of that happening is so small that it is not even worth mentioning.
It is time for all of us to face up to the truth. In this day and age it is really easy to get caught up in the trap of feeling depressed, but once we understand exactly how bad our problems are it can be empowering because then we can start focusing on solutions.
The following are 27 depressing statistics about the U.S. economy that are almost too crazy to believe…”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/feeling-depressed-27-depressing-statistics-about-us-economy-will-make-you-feel-even-worse
Managed well and you get oradell, nj, and the home owners profit handsomely as the municipality is highly desireable.
Tell that to the guy who bought a POS in 2005 for $639,000 and has the dump on the market for 87 days and counting at a price of $539,000 praying for the next sucker to come by.
Debt [101],
That article doesn’t affect us, we have granite and pergo and attractive teachers.
Juice
I’m in! On top of that we can add a line of whey protein bars derived from japanee milk and call them bars FUEL RODS
PS. i will be trade marking FUEL RODS immediately
Debt 100
#2 The U.S. economy actually grew more between 1930 and 1940 than it did during the decade that recently ended.
And people claim we aren’t in a depression?!
debt
I just typed that while snuggling twins and drinking a beer!!! Now i just need a 3rd hand for the cheddar bunnies!
Juice
we can use the Hulk as the Fuel Rod spokesman
Average household debt in the United States has now reached a level of 136% of average household income.
That’s because everyone is too busy buying Hogan running shoes from Nom de Guerre’s in Manhattan to go along with their whale pen1s leather sports bag.
Ket,
That reuters link on zerohedge was taken down mid day.
Here’s a PDF scan of a congressman’s email asking the NRC if it melted into the drywell and NRC’s subsequent response:
http://markey.house.gov/docs/4-6-11.markey_e-mail_1_-_nrc_question_regarding_fukushima_unit_2.pdf
Zieba
A few days ago there was japanese report quoting the workers on site as reporting occasional blue flashes. Blue flashes are caused by fission chain reactions going critical.
That report disappeared about a day or so after going public. The quotes further reinforce the isotopic data that shows that at least 1 not more of the reactors are seeing intermittent recriticality events. The significance of that is that huge amounts of heat are generated every time this happens and sets cooling efforts back every time it happens. It also raises serious questions about the real exposure levels of those on site.
Obama on gas prices
“I’m just going to be honest with you. There’s not much we can do next week or two weeks from now,” the president told workers at a wind turbine plant (one operated by Spanish company Gamesa). “Gas prices? They’re going to still fluctuate until we can start making these broader changes, and that’s going to take a couple of years to have serious effect.”, “If you’re complaining about the price of gas and you’re only getting 8 miles a gallon, you know,” Obama said laughingly. “You might want to think about a trade-in.”
The question to ask is whether or not this can be legally marketed as a weight loss tool.
#93 yelsi: I am from the area and you are delusional. If all was well in Oradell they would have no problem paying the additional property taxes. They are going to fight River Edge all the way on this. Lots of houses for sale in Oradell as well.
#101Tell that to the guy who bought a POS in 2005 for $639,000 and has the dump on the market for 87 days and counting at a price of $539,000 praying for the next sucker to come by.
And thats not a joke; it is the truth.
Oradell Stats (NJMLS)
1/1/2005 thru 3/31/2005
Average Sold Price – $ 618,357
1/1/2011 thru 3/31/2011
Average Sold Price – $ 496,152 (Down 20%)
West Orange Stats (GSMLS)
1/1/200511 thru 3/31/2005
Average Sold Price – $402,735
1/1/2011 thru 3/31/2011
Average Sold Price – $373,663 (Down 7%)
You really sure Oradell performed as well as you think?
The link I posted (#51) is going to cause an uproar in River Edge; does not help the Spring selling season. Assuming potential buyers see the article they may think twice about buying with all that uncertainity. Same for Oradell, with the massive amount of new housing that may or may not be built in River Edge (all multi-family by the way), and if the funding is not changed than Oradell will continue to be reemed; only more so.
#95 You’re standing on your property in Oradell watching the tsunami roll over Bergenfield and Dumont, smug in the belief that you won’t be affected because “its different here”. I look forward to picking you bones clean.
And New Milford.
vodka (109)-
Aren’t those blue flashes neutron beams?
#95 And New Milford
#115 Might explain why 15 houses have come on the market in River Edge in the last 2 weeks. 3 today alone.
Yelsi,
Do you expect to live or a community to exist free of property taxes? And have decent infrastructure & schools?
YES. consumption taxes.
I’ve worked with lots of Manhattan ex-pats, and let me tell you, not once, ever, has anyone ever mentioned Oradell. It’s a nice town, don’t get me wrong. You can go ahead and call it something cute like Bergen County’s best kept secret, but nobody I’ve ever worked with coming out of NYC would ever bother with it, sorry.
kette1 – a bit the more on the localized criticality
http://fairewinds.com/updates
Debt
No, blue flashes are not neutron beams. The blue flash is associated with the molecules of air being excited to a higher energy level by the instantaneous burst of high energy radiation when criticality initially occurs followed by the molecules dropping back to their lower energy state and releasing the excess energy as light ( both visible and non-visible spectra).
Neutron beams are invisible and only detected with specialized instruments.
Pat 111
Low level radiation sickness is great at causing weightloss!!!!!
O.K. I’m in if we can get around limits.
Can we put up a display in the $10/mo gyms?
#121 Oradell residents like to compare themselves to Ridgewood. And you hurt their feelings with that post.
#89 Nom
I’m sure the gNOMe’s of GE work out the number every quarter that will ensure that GE will not pay 1cent more than they have to.
I think the words you need to describe GE Capital is “Socialize the Losses”
Deferring tax on offshore profits has to change. But do do that you have to go through GE and all the multi nationals and your industry.
But hey, Corporations are people too.
Regarding grim’s post #115, I only have one thing to say:
HE SHOOTS, HE SCORES!
#114 grim: Just curious what are the stats for River Edge?
Thanks. I’ve always thought this step unlikely. The problem is that Obama’s drastic expansion of welfare programs has ballooned the budget deficit from the hundreds of billions to over a trillion a year, he’s leery about tax hikes (at least before the 2012 election) and doesn’t want to cut non-defense spending. The question is whether the Democrats and the Republicans will settle on removing the muni bond interest exemption as a bipartisan compromise – the Dems because public unions are winning the PR battles over total compensation, and the GOP because its philosophy is to starve the beast, even at the state and local level.
JJ says:
April 6, 2011 at 4:22 pm
That and home mortgage interest is always thrown about.
Funny part is it would be a huge windfall for folks like me who have a good sized portfolio of tax free muni bonds. They could only implement it going forward. That would make the existing suppy of munis more valuable. I would love it. I would also love it if they killed the mortgage deduction, but no one has the balls to do that.
John,
For you:
http://jobs.aol.com/articles/2011/04/04/casino-waitresses-fired-over-skimpy-costumes-video/
[125] fabius
Like I said, if you don’t like it, change the law. And accept the consequences.
Ket
If you get bored with the twins have fun in here
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/interactive/2011/apr/05/reader-ideas-fukushima-nuclear-plant
#130 Nom,
I’ll pass. At this point it just feels like I’m trying to talk talking Intelligent Design with Michele Bachmann