From the Star Ledger:
Housing experts fear deluge when foreclosure filings start again
In the past six months, an eerie feeling has settled in the offices of housing counselors and attorneys who confront the foreclosure crisis head-on and help distressed homeowners in New Jersey. The phone hasn’t been ringing any less than it did at the height of the storm, but what is about to hit may be greater than anything the group has seen so far.
Foreclosure filings are down 86 percent so far this year from last, owing in part to a December crackdown by the state’s chief justice that effectively halted proceedings by the country’s biggest mortgage lenders and service companies, according to court data. But lenders are waiting to file an estimated 28,500 foreclosures, and another 55,000 mortgage loans are currently more than 90 days delinquent, according to LPS Applied Analytics, a real estate data firm that tracks mortgage performance. At the current rate, it would take 49 years for banks to clear the logjam of mortgage loans that are currently in the foreclosure process or are more than 90 days delinquent, LPS found.
Those figures are a sign of what is to come when lenders are able to begin filing again, and the pipeline speeds up.
“It’s what keeps me awake at night,” said Peggy Jurow, who leads Legal Service of New Jersey’s Foreclosure Defense Initiative. “It’s what keeps my colleagues and me strategizing all the time.”
“What are we going to do,” she asked, when these cases get filed?
…
The foreclosure process came to a halt on Dec. 20, when Chief Justice Stuart Rabner announced an initiative to address fears homeowners were unnecessarily put into foreclosure and judges had inadvertently “rubber-stamped” files that had inaccurate or inadequate paperwork.In March, six of the country’s biggest financial institutions — Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, GMAC Mortgage, Citibank, OneWest Bank and Wells Fargo — agreed to submit extensive documentation of their foreclosure processes and outline any revisions they have made. A court-appointed special master, retired Superior Court Judge Richard Williams, is reviewing the material and will report on whether the banks have satisfied a number of changes.
…
Bankers in New Jersey have told John McWeeney Jr., president and CEO of the New Jersey Bankers Association, that the time it now takes to complete a foreclosure has stretched to nearly three years.“The reaction of the Supreme Court certainly delayed a large volume of foreclosures that otherwise would have been put in process, so I would expect that that will eventually hit and increase the number of foreclosure filings,” McWeeney said.
…
When the foreclosure filings start winding their way through courts again, the influx will affect everyone in the industry.“There are going to be very substantial numbers of foreclosures that are going to hit the market, all of which is problematic and obviously has a negative impact on housing values,” said Robert Levy, executive director of the Mortgage Bankers Association of New Jersey.
FRIST!
The end is nigh (confectionary edition):
They don’t even make the fuking chocolate here anymore…..it’s made en Mexico hombre :(
Its only a flesh wound.
McWeeney?
#1 chi – I’ve been waiting months and months for a good frist. Congrats!
From Bloomberg:
Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Probably Declined in April From Year Earlier
Home prices probably decreased in April, showing the housing market remains an obstacle for the U.S. recovery, economists said before a report today.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 4 percent from April 2010, the biggest year-over-year drop since November 2009, according to the median forecast of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Other data may show consumer confidence held near a six-month low.
A backlog of foreclosures and falling sales indicate prices may decline further, discouraging builders from taking on new projects. The drop in property values and a jobless rate hovering around 9 percent are holding back consumer sentiment and spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy.
“Home prices remain incredibly bogged down by foreclosures and weak demand,” said Sean Incremona, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York. “The picture is unlikely to change much this year. Declining home prices and high unemployment are bad for confidence.”
The S&P/Case-Shiller index, based on a three-month average, is due at 9 a.m. New York time. Survey estimates ranged from declines of 4.9 percent to 3.5 percent. Values fell 3.6 percent in the 12 months to March.
From HousingWire:
Uneven fall of house prices could tumble another 3%
Analysts at both Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Capital Economics forecast another 3% fall for house prices before they reach a bottom at the end of the year.
While homes on the lower-tier price range will get there faster and at a much harder fall, a housing recovery is in sight, analysts said.
Tiers are based on the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index and are determined by the prices of the homes sold that month. The price splits occur where an equal number of homes can be placed in each tier.
From January 2000 to the peak in 2007, prices in the lower tier increased 150%, according to Capital Economics. These lower-priced homes accelerated faster than the 120% gain for middle-tier house prices and the 95% increase in the most expensive neighborhoods.
But since that peak, house prices in the least expensive areas dropped 45% and are still falling faster than anywhere else.
…
“The much faster rises in the low tier were largely due to the increased availability of sub-prime loans, the reduction in down payment requirements and the introduction of teaser mortgages attracting more first-buyer buyers, who are more active at the low end,” Dales said.
…
Still, BofAML analysts said prices should head down again to a bottom in late 2011 or early 2012, 3% below the level in the first quarter of this year.
Dales added that 3% fall will be hardest felt at the low end of the market.
Sad.
Good Morning New Jersey
You want to see home prices recover in NJ, cut Property taxes People would be able to buy if they didn’t have to figure in $1000 a month taxes on a shitshack, But what do I know
They will never cut property taxes. Living in NJ is like a prison sentence. Just do your time then get the f_ck out of there.
# 7
“While homes on the lower-tier price range will get there faster and at a much harder fall, a housing recovery is in sight, analysts said.”
If you say it enough does it make it true?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/broke-new-jersey-seeking-225-billion-bridge-loan-9-jpmorgan-emergency-funding
just raise the property taxes ,no problem
One has to wonder how concerns over aging nuclear plants, especially like Oyster Creek and Fuk-U-Shima, will start to affect property values. I remember when there was scant development in Lacey. Now? Fuggedaboud it! The place, and points south are bedroom communities for NY commuters.
This, from the AP:
By JEFF DONN, AP National Writer – 23 mins ago
ROCKVILLE, Md. – When commercial nuclear power was getting its start in the 1960s and 1970s, industry and regulators stated unequivocally that reactors were designed only to operate for 40 years. Now they tell another story — insisting that the units were built with no inherent life span, and can run for up to a century, an Associated Press investigation shows.
By rewriting history, plant owners are making it easier to extend the lives of dozens of reactors in a relicensing process that resembles nothing more than an elaborate rubber stamp.
As part of a yearlong investigation of aging issues at the nation’s nuclear power plants, the AP found that the relicensing process often lacks fully independent safety reviews. Records show that paperwork of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission sometimes matches word-for-word the language used in a plant operator’s application.
Also, the relicensing process relies heavily on such paperwork, with very little onsite inspection and verification.
And under relicensing rules, tighter standards are not required to compensate for decades of wear and tear.
So far, 66 of 104 reactors have been granted license renewals. Most of the 20-year extensions have been granted with scant public attention. And the NRC has yet to reject a single application to extend an original license. The process has been so routine that many in the industry are already planning for additional license extensions, which could push the plants to operate for 80 years, and then 100.
Regulators and industry now contend that the 40-year limit was chosen for economic reasons and to satisfy antitrust concerns, not for safety issues. They contend that a nuclear plant has no technical limit on its life.
But an AP review of historical records, along with interviews with engineers who helped develop nuclear power, shows just the opposite: Reactors were made to last only 40 years. Period.
snip
Don’t you think it’s sad that you’ll work your whole life trying to make a home, a home, then not be able to hang onto it when you retire and have the time to enjoy it
just because of the property taxes. In NJ its a sin to be middle class and your right
AG anybody that doesn’t amass a couple of million bucks is going to have to get out of here. NJ “The Serfdom State “
16. No.
“They don’t even make the fuking chocolate here anymore…..it’s made en Mexico hombre :(”
chi, not only that but they changed the ingredients and replaced most of the real chocolate with ‘chocolate flavoring’.
Shore,
From what I read Fukushima was built shoddily to begin with; which would make me all sorts of nervous considering the corner-cutting politically connected companies we have in this country.
Essex 17 stirring the pot early today.
What’s that stench in the air this morning?
Hobo 21 Bacon? Not.
One suggestion on CNBC: US to take Greece into receivership.
Yeah, that would end well.
(21) hobo
It’s a mix of tear gas, souvlaki, gasoline, and ouzo.
Just read this on a listing about 125k -150k over priced: Wow! Custom lakefront ranch. Formal living and dining rooms, family room w/cathedral ceiling & gas fireplace, huge walk-out den, 36’x12′ deck w/power awning, private dock, immaculate -very special.
It is VERY SPECIAL! LOLROF.
(20) mike
That is hardly stirring. Wait until his SSRI wears off. Then we will see some SX.
Been following rural land sales. Some price reductions but some properties I looked at have sold, and sold for asking.
(25) mike
To me, best feature was access to surface water.
Tom Souzi I think that was his name a few years ago said any senior citizen who does not want to pay school taxes is fine by him. All they need to do is sign an affidavit they will never use the services of anyone whose profession requires a high school degree, no doctors, lawyers, engineers etc. No one took deal. Jethro says:
June 28, 2011 at 7:10 am
Don’t you think it’s sad that you’ll work your whole life trying to make a home, a home, then not be able to hang onto it when you retire and have the time to enjoy it
just because of the property taxes. In NJ its a sin to be middle class and your right
AG anybody that doesn’t amass a couple of million bucks is going to have to get out of here. NJ “The Serfdom State “
HEHE
But an AP review of historical records, along with interviews with engineers who helped develop nuclear power, shows just the opposite: Reactors were made to last only 40 years. Period.
The re-licensing is politics and its unlikely any sane competent engineer would ever sign off on those re-licensing applications.
The 2 major issues involved are that A) there is no where to put the spent fuel when they decommission the plants, thats what yucca mountain was meant for but O closed it.
B)Many of the companies that own these reactors do not have the money to decommission the reactors. It could easily cost billions of dollars and take a decade to fully decommission a reactor and remediate the site. The utilities do not have the money to do this even thought they promised they would. They play the “but it would bankrupt us and then the state/Feds would have to pay for the decommissioning” card.
Any reactor over its initial design lifespan is essentially a ticking time bomb.
OK serious question about women. Evesdropped on one of those women at work things they have where women mentor women. Stuff like you need a seat at the table and women don’t ask for things like I want a promotion, I want a raise and I want the corner office and demand they get it. Stuff like you have to speak up to get it.
Really, Really. You can get a corner office by just asking for it. How many freeging corner offices are there? Heck I know partners and EVPs without corner offices.
Have any of you ever been to a network of women or women on wall street type meeting. Do they really give practical stuff or is it like a Tony Robbins seminar?
But Nom it is SPECIAL, Oh let me take that back VERY Special.
Link: http://emailrpt.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?report=clientfull&Id=66155886_11260
For all you BC buyers up here that is overpriced , trust me. You can have a nicer place in a much better neighborhood for 3 & change.
‘…Economics forecast another 3% fall for house prices before they reach a bottom at the end of the year.’
This line is trotted out every year. I feel like I’m in the movie Groundhog’s Day.
(29)
How many professions now-a-days claim they require a HS diploma, but truly do not? Plus they give those diplomas away like candy
34. Jersey Girl
I was just wondering if I’m Waiting for Godot or maybe I’m Gregor the beetle.
Breaking News Home prices rise for the first time in 8 months, according to S&P/Case-Shiller, but year-over-year prices decline 4%.
So the 8K credit last year to buy a home is gone if you paid over 200K for your home.
Are we gonna see market moving news from Case-Shiller 20-city Index?
You can only fall 100% from peak so I guess every 1% down brings us closer to a bottom.
My cousin who bought last year and got a 4.5% 30 year loan and put down 5% on a 700K home and got the 8K credit after 12 months of ownership here is his P&L.
Profit
8K tax credit
14K mortgage/re deduction.
Total 22K
Loss
Loss in home value – 28K
Mortgage Interest paid. 30K
RE Taxes paid 16k
Total
74K
Net is a 52K loss. Great Investment he lost $1,000 a week for 52 straight weeks.
Jersey Girl says:
June 28, 2011 at 8:46 am
‘…Economics forecast another 3% fall for house prices before they reach a bottom at the end of the year.’
This line is trotted out every year. I feel like I’m in the movie Groundhog’s Day.
Falling house prices equal recovering economy. In NJ they will continue to fall to compensate for the out of control taxes. Simple as that.
#23 Mike: But does it have Unicorns?
“My cousin who bought last year and got a 4.5% 30 year loan and put down 5% on a 700K home and got the 8K credit after 12 months of ownership here is his P&L.
Profit
8K tax credit
14K mortgage/re deduction.
Total 22K
Loss
Loss in home value – 28K
Mortgage Interest paid. 30K
RE Taxes paid 16k
Total
74K
Net is a 52K loss. Great Investment he lost $1,000 a week for 52 straight weeks. ”
Check with your cousin how much he gained in his utility from the home ownership. Sometime, non financial benefit might outweigh the financial consideration
#42 Ths has to be some mega case of utility to be OK with a 52K loss in a year.
Joyce [35];
How many professions now-a-days claim they require a HS diploma, but truly do not? Plus they give those diplomas away like candy
I think that’s more prevalent at the college level. A BA in communications to be an administrative assistant? What happened to two years at jr. college to learn typing and basic business etiquette? The 4-year degree is a stamp of employability that frees the hiring manager from the need for thought or responsibility for their decisions (i.e., the old saw that ‘no one ever got fired for buying IBM’, even if the project failed.)
Meanwhile in the land of Brig on Hack. All the talk of Unicorns and fairy dust may have convinced people it was time to act. Listings went from 92 to 79 in the last week and a half; especially in the last 3 or 4 days. Dont know if they all went UC or listings expired or a combination of both. Maybe jets is out there pushing hard.
45 3b
a bunch of listings prolly expired… i usually check michael merzel’s blog to get the latest closed sales… he’s pretty good about updating…
#42
Can’t count teh loss of value as that loss has not been realized and no one really knows what its actually worth until it sells.
Deduct interest tax deduction from interest paid and he’s at a 6K loss. I want to know who is his accountant as this is pretty good.
So he’s actual cost of living there is $22K which is $1,833 per month. Now ask yourself how much does it cost to rent that place. Probably more than that.
If your cousing lives in that home for 20+ years and it doesn’t cost him promotions and raises because he can’t move than its not a bad thing.
Single family housing is NEVER an investment. Its a place to live and it forces savings for those who are not disciplined and not wall street savy.
3b: Don’t make me do song parodies from “The Book of Mormon” again.
#46 That is what I figured, but just reporting in. I thought jets might check in with the same info, and accuse me of not being balanced.
He was mooching off his mother in law pre home purchase so there is no rent savings.
Mark to Market Accounting Baby. No matter how you figure it if he mooched off his Mother in law one more year he would have a bigger downpayment and would have got house cheaper.
make money says:
June 28, 2011 at 9:43 am
#42
Can’t count teh loss of value as that loss has not been realized and no one really knows what its actually worth until it sells.
Deduct interest tax deduction from interest paid and he’s at a 6K loss. I want to know who is his accountant as this is pretty good.
So he’s actual cost of living there is $22K which is $1,833 per month. Now ask yourself how much does it cost to rent that place. Probably more than that.
If your cousing lives in that home for 20+ years and it doesn’t cost him promotions and raises because he can’t move than its not a bad thing.
Single family housing is NEVER an investment. Its a place to live and it forces savings for those who are not disciplined and not wall street savy.
#48 JC That last one was great. You have a talent there.
Can someone direct me to the Mormon-bashing blog?
No matter how you figure it if he mooched off his Mother in law one more year he would have a bigger downpayment and would have got house cheaper.
JJ,
That same argument could be made in year 2 and year 3 and year 4 etc…The guy was tired of mooching, wanted to be a man and step up like one.
It cost money to be A MAN.
Also, did you count on your home equity in 2007 when making lifestyle decisons? No one knows the value of the house until you actually sell it and subtract transaction cost. It’s always less than what you thought. You can get lucky and have a moron overpay because of some intrinsic value of living on that block or their spouse just “Falls in Love” with the property. I’ve sold my own RE dozens of times and I rarely got what I projected.
A home is not a pure play and value or benefit of a home can stretch broadly. Reducing commute time and increasing leisure time for example can be very valuable to people. Clean, safe, and good parks, schools, a wonderful community. I know a number of people that have bought homes for the serenity their landscaping, view or privacy created in their living space. Only assholes, pricks, people bitter with life, and those that don’t know how to live well take the mindset of this website into a home.
[52] hobo
http://www.msnbc.com
Hobo, watch the Mormon episode at southparkstudios.
3b #51: The talent is all with Parker/Stone/Lopez. I just recognize an opportunity when I see it.
Listen to the actual song here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnmLLz8aub8
[52] hobo
some others
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com
http://www.crooksandliars.com
Basically, these are left wing propaganda sites, and they bash anyone to the right of Barney Frank. That includes mormons, nearly all of whom are well right of Barney.
I don’t read them, but I have “friends” who do (they think its news) and they seem to be fairly unfond of mormons.
2cents “Only assholes, pricks, people bitter with life, and those that don’t know how to live well take the mindset of this website into a home.”
And only underwater debt slaves, with a never ending property tax liability that increases annually have to search for reasons why they shouldn’t lite a match and torch their POS.
Love of the landscaping? Really grasping at straws there bud.
#54 How much underwater are you?? Let me gove you some 2 cents. I know quite a few people who are hopelessly underwater. They do not feel peace and serenity knowing that the house they paid 500K for is now worth somewhere between 375k and 400K. Trust me they are bitter. As are the ones who sucked all the equity out to do a kitchen remodel 5 years ago, or pay college tuition, or buy the BMW etc. No peace, no tranquility. In the midst of all of that they sit and watch while there taxes have more than doubled in less than 10 years with no end in sight. They are not enjoying the beautiful land scape or feeling the love and the joy.
[54] 2cent
I have a lovely home in Brigadoon (a.k.a. Westfield) that I think would be perfect for you. Not cheap but it provides all of what you want. When can you come by to see it?
#57 Still good. You know however that with that song you would be persona non grata in the land of Unicorns.
3b – Were you peaking at my screen?
#64 Like minds. AS you know from time to time we get the occassional troll here who call those who have not bought yet or those who sold at or right before the peak and are renting , bitter @ssholes mad at life and all the rest.
Anyone have a time for the Greek vote?
2cent (54)-
So, not being willing to buy a 500K shitbox and its 14K (and rising) annual tax bill to get a view, “serenity”, privacy or a blue ribbony indoctrination for the kids makes one a prick or an asshole?
What do you say about the hundreds of thousands of pricks and assholes who have permanently left NJ and found a wonderful place to buy in a far less expensive locale?
What do you say about the thousands of NJ high school graduates who leave the state for college- never to return again- because housing prices and the cost of carry have risen so high that they can’t even imagine going househunting here…much less, actually buying? Are they pricks and assholes, too?
Seems to me like the pricks and assholes (not to mention, dupes) are the ones who will be permanently anchored to their underwater crapboxes at the point where the entire middle class has evacuated NJ, all that’s left are the uberrich and uberpoor…and Trenton decides that the 17 middle class families left are going to finance the entire mountain of debt that’s been accruing for decades.
#67 And what 2 cents and the rest of the 2 cents crowd fails to understand is those who have left, were supposed to be the next generation fo buyers.
But 2 cents and the other clowns bid up prices to insane levels, voted yes for every spending referendum in their respective towns, because the local clowns on the BOE’s and Mayor and Councils told them this spending would make their houses worth even more, and on and on it went until it collapsed. But of course they did it for the children; the same children who are leaving today never to return.
Good job 2 cents and the rest of your crowd.
What do you say about the thousands of NJ high school graduates who leave the state for college- never to return again- because housing prices and the cost of carry have risen so high that they can’t even imagine going househunting here…much less, actually buying? Are they pricks and assholes, too?
When I bought several months ago, I looked at the purchase really as a long term rental. Only difference now is I hate paying monthly interest expense even if it is tax deductible.
Question for board: I ended up getting a 4% 7 year arm as I got screwed by buying at the highest rates in the last year. At what point would I consider refinancing to a 30 year or how much do rates need to drop for me to refinance to a 7 or 10 year arm and make up for refinancing costs?
http://ewallstreeter.com/syndicated/76030/credit-suisse-is-laying-off-people-in-it-equities-debt-finance-and-i-banking-right-now-cs?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=social&utm_content=Twitter
layoffs . while you were out
54 -2cents After what has transpired over the last4-5 years you have to have balls as big as church bells to post that line of garbage. I sold my homes at peak you are holding the bag, not bitter one little bit.
#70 Dan: When I purchase again (within the next year) it too will only be looked at as a long term rental; nothing more.
#72 Ironically his/her post proves that they are the bitter ones. I guess they have to release their anger at someone.
I have met many, many people who are strategically defaulting and extremely happy.
The satisfaction of sticking it to the man- and knowing that you can rehab your credit in 24-36 months just by pulling off a short sale instead of walking away- seems to be an empowering thing for lots of people. I also now know a couple of people who are moving into their second strategic default and are deliriously happy. Rinse and repeat, baby!
Did I mention the guy who called me to do a short sale who bought for the 8K tax credit at the deadline last year (FHA, natch), made four payments, then stopped paying?
I may have to post a picture of his shit-eating grin here someday.
Whoa. Don’t get me started on FHA…
The default rates on all their loans originated since ’07 is stomach-churning…and only getting worse.
That’s another dirty bomb, being trip-wired to detonate at the most inopportune time.
Now this is what I call austerity!
“TAXATION
Taxes will increase by 2.32bn euros this year, with additional taxes of 3.38bn euros in 2012, 152m euros in 2013 and 699m euros in 2014.
A solidarity levy of between 1% and 5% of income will be levied on households to raise 1.38bn euros.
The tax-free threshold for income tax will be lowered from 12,000 to 8,000 euros.
There will be higher property taxes
VAT rates are to rise: the 19% rate will increase to 23%, 11% becomes 13%, and 5.5% will increase to 6.5%.
The VAT rate for restaurants and bars will rise to 23% from 13%.
Luxury levies will be introduced on yachts, pools and cars.
Some tax exemptions will be scrapped
Excise taxes on fuel, cigarettes and alcohol will rise by one third.
Special levies on profitable firms, high-value properties and people with high incomes will be introduced.
PUBLIC SECTOR CUTS
The public sector wage bill will be cut by 770m euros in 2011, 600m euros in 2012, 448m euros in 2013, 300m euros in 2014 and 71m euros in 2015.
Nominal public sector wages will be cut by 15%.
Wages of employees of state-owned enterprises will be cut by 30% and there will be a cap on wages and bonuses.
All temporary contracts for public sector workers will be terminated.
Only one in 10 civil servants retiring this year will be replaced and only one in 5 in coming years.
SPENDING CUTS
Defence spending will be cut by 200m euros in 2012, and by 333m euros each year from 2013 to 2015.
Health spending will be cut by 310m euros this year and a further 1.81bn euros in 2012-2015, mainly by lowering regulated prices for drugs.
Public investment will be cut by 850m euros this year.
Subsidies for local government will be reduced.
Education spending will be cut by closing or merging 1,976 schools.
CUTTING BENEFITS
Social security will be cut by 1.09bn euros this year, 1.28bn euros in 2012, 1.03bn euros in 2013, 1.01bn euros in 2014 and 700m euros in 2015.
There will be more means-testing and some benefits will be cut.
The government hopes to collect more social security contributions by cracking down on evasion and undeclared work.
The statutory retirement age will be raised to 65, 40 years of work will be needed for a full pension and benefits will be linked more closely to lifetime contributions.
PRIVATISATION
The government aims to raise 50bn euros from privatisations by 2015, including:
Selling stakes this year in the betting monopoly OPAP, the lender Hellenic Postbank, port operators Piraeus Port and Thessaloniki Port as well as Thessaloniki Water.
It has agreed to sell 10% of Hellenic Telecom to Deutsche Telekom for about 400m euros.
Next year, the government plans to sell stakes in Athens Water, refiner Hellenic Petroleum, electricity utility PPC, lender ATEbank as well as ports, airports, motorway concessions, state land and mining rights.
It plans further sales to raise 7bn euros in 2013, 13bn euros in 2014 and 15bn euros in 2015.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/breakdown-greek-austerity-measures
Military Coup in Greece is a definite.
Just add gasoline.
Dan,
You can get a 4.25% 30 fixed right now. I would lock that in unless of course you plan on strategically defaulting within the next 7 years.
re: Greece – I know two people on vacation there now. Both young women. I don’t think they are going to get to see much with no ferry service and flights canceled, rolling electrical blackouts etc.
Maybe they will learn how to riot and make gasoline bombs.
Good luck with cutting defense spending…like the military is going to roll over. I’m with Clot military coup by Sept/Oct is inevitable. Unless of course compiance is as strict as with teh first austerity package.
“I don’t think they are going to get to see much with no ferry service and flights canceled, rolling electrical blackouts etc.”
At this point, their focus should be on getting to Montenergro, where they can explore in safety and from there or Croatia can get to Italy.
Make,
The biggest problem with getting defense spending cuts is NOT the military, it is congress. There are many things that congress mandates as make-work projects for back home — witness the fight over the second F-35 engine.
“Defence spending will be cut by 200m euros in 2012, and by 333m euros each year from 2013 to 2015.”
This will achieve what the Warsaw Pact could not.
“But 2 cents and the other clowns bid up prices to insane levels, voted yes for every spending referendum in their respective towns, because the local clowns on the BOE’s and Mayor and Councils told them this spending would make their houses worth even more, and on and on it went until it collapsed.”
This is the type of thing that makes me discount reports of “improving consumer confidence.” Plenty of people the month before peak were confident that things would continue upward, unabated, for a long time to come.
“What do you say about the thousands of NJ high school graduates who leave the state for college- never to return again- ”
If one is spending money on education as “an investment in the State’s future,” what is the rate of return on a student who graduates and leaves the state? It seems we may be investing in the future of NC, SC, GA, TN, etc. IUf that is the case, one might make the case that the investment is not paying a reasonable return.
“Trenton decides that the 17 middle class families left are going to finance the entire mountain of debt”
It is only fair.
As we all know, “fairness” and “the public interest” now trump the rule of law.
Its for the children. Our most treasured asset.
Nothing is going to change until we start ventilating those who would use their gubmint positions- no matter how high or low- to dispense favors in exchange for votes and to impoverish their political enemies in order to finance the payola.
No matter how this all ends, it ends in violence. I say bring it on now.
#88 Shore Consumer Confidence down today.
If they can get to Montenegro I own a place in Ulcinj where they can stay for a while. Also, the is an affordable Bar-Bari ferry service from Montenegro to Italy that runs several times a week.
Just read some gobbly gook from soem Wall Street expert. To paraphrase stocks are up today because of hope that the Greek austerity package will be passed.
And because this “expert” believes that the economy will turn around in the second half as per Berskanke. Can some one tell me just what is on the horizon that might ensure some real meaningful improvement in the economy over the next 6 months???
QE 3 and a tax rebate via debit cards?
Id I80 in PA ever not a total mess?
The way things are going, this guarantees Bachman will be the Republican candidate:
http://www.foxcharlotte.com/news/politics/124656559.html?m=y&smobile=y&c=y
96
3b,
I went for an interview last week in Boston. It is a start up biotech. The business model is to outsource 90% of the research work to Asia. The guy there told me he had to pay 400K FTE in USA where as in China, FTE for a researcher is 75K. I am hearing from my current company that we are going 100% outsourcing. That means no more labs here and this approach is being pushed on us by external consultants as a way to survive. I do not foresee any improvement in hiring anytime soon especially in pharma. I am sure this is the case for all other industries. If the outsourcing trend accelerates, the economy will never recover. I dont own a home here in NJ. I am not planning to buy anytime soon because of the job uncertainty. I hope things get better in the future and not turn out to be like the one hobo is foreseeing!
There is no way greece actually follows through on any austerity plan. The austerity plans are what the politicians want for their sake, not for the peoples. The greek people will not stand for the austerity shenanigans.
Its in their best interest just as it is in our best interest to default on the debt.
100.
PineBrook,
Thats why no one is going to trust the research your piss ant sales people try to push on the market.
Shore
no rest for the weary
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hKW_xl9fJzQ9w5G4a5sXEY1LmFmw?docId=373fdd3e6ed549cd86f3e4299cd3874a
I guess 2012 is approaching faster theni thought ;)
Shore you know how national republicans pick their candidates; the most vitriolic bible thumping ignoramus whose is next in line. Bachmann is bumping that trend as she is not next in line the used car salesman Romney is. Libertarians Gillespie and Welch were hawking their book on Napilitano’s Fox business show they seem to think American people have had enough and will go third party soon. I counter americans are too stupid to recognize more than a true or false answer, and need team blue or red because they are incapable of thinking on their own.
pine brook,
But the government says that employment of biological technicians will grow faster than average. http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos115.htm
All outsourcing doesn’t mean overseas though. I know SGS is saying they’re winning more lab outsourcing work, but mostly to their Canadian and US labs.
A west equating what SGS does to pharm researchers is like comparing amoeba to complex lifeforms. Not the same thing
Al, 102
I am not advocating outsourcing. Just telling where things are headed. A tariff may bring back manufacturing. Can anybody think of any kind of legislation that can stop services outsourcing?
Painhrtz,
Americans have already tipped their voting preferences pretty clearly. Coke, Dominos, and Doritos coupled with Snooki and Kirstie Alley dry humping.
Fox and talk radio is an echo chamber, convincing themselves that they’re in the majority. Stossel is pretty good but lower ratings prove that even semi-cerebral doesn’t sell. Idiocracy is here. I’m not sure which flavor the next populist political wave will have, but I’m pretty confident I won’t like it.
Anarchy now!
West,
Sure, we outsource large amount of work to Contract Research Organizations in US. They are good. In recent days many of them are starting their labs in India and China. Many local (Asian) CROs there also competing for the work. Several US CROs where I contracted work is leaving business citing low profit margin. Unlike IT, outsourcing trend in Pharma is only beginning to take speed. I think it is disturbing trend. I have been trying to find another job for a year. So far no luck. Let us see how the job landscape in NJ or the whole of US looks like in 5-10 years. Unless the salary and the regulations (environmental laws) go down, it will be difficult to compete with Asia.
U.S. Abusing Fiat Currency System
Analysts suspect the United States will follow in the footsteps of Greece as the Federal Reserve continues to print money to cover the nation’s expenses and maintain the current rate of consumption, and that a massive debt restructuring will be necessary to repair its balance sheet. American gross debt has ballooned to $14.4 trillion and an annual deficit of $1.5 trillion, and publicly traded debt has risen 90% in the last four years. Eventually, the accounting for this unchecked spending and reliance on credit will result in financial crisis unless an effort is made to balance the budget, reduce inflation and increase the value of the dollar, experts say.
Hobo [75];
With that kind of attitude, there’s a seller I’d like to see you representing.
Shore… your liberals are dumb comment. I second that. Having celebrated the victory of a president that went on to extend tax cuts for the wealthy, supported the banks that got the country into a mess, and has been supportive of steep cuts in medicaid… I feel very dumb.
On the other hand, I should probably say thanks to the 8k freebie in 2009 and the 200 bps payroll tax cuts in 2011 — none of these things help if I or some loved one gets into economic trouble. He is like the bank that will lend out free umbrellas when there is no rain and demands them back as soon as rain starts.
When I came to US, the general impression many I know shared was that US is a place where the first generation people bring in baggage of financial insecurity, end up with no life and a lot of money, but at least the subsequent generations will have the work ethic and confidence to really shine. Going by how things are, multiple generations to come will have the baggage of financial insecurity — and may become part of life just like in third world countries.
The GOP can have it in the bag if there was at least one republican candidate that was honest — that will in fact keep the president honest and on his toes. Instead, the GOP candidates are so busy spreading santorum everywhere. May be that’s the side show that the PTB want to go on…
Pain,
I’m not an expert, but I kind of gathered they (sgs) were picking up the lowest value-add work. But it’s interesting that even that low value stuff isn’t automatically going to the lowest cost countries. Similar to the way that car companies only have to move from Michigan to Alabama to get significant cost savings – don’t have to go all the way to China or Mexico (though on the margin they are).
54 you’re reminding me of a classic quote…
See, there’s three kinds of people: d!cks, puss!es, and @ssholes. puss!es think everyone can get along, and d!cks just want to fuk all the time without thinking it through. But then you got your @ssholes, Chuck. And all the @ssholes want us to sh!t all over everything! So, puss!es may get mad at d!cks once in a while, because puss!es get fuked by d!cks. But d!cks also fuk @ssholes, Chuck. And if they didn’t fuk the @ssholes, you know what you’d get? You’d get your d!ck and your p#ssy all covered in sh!t!
guess the movie.
107.
Pine,
I see. Just had thoughts of the Vioxx debacle when I read we are outsourcing Pharma research. Not sure I trust the FDA after the Swine flu scam. Looks like just another industry we are going to lose.
A. West turn around times and cost of analysis. Costs too much to ship overseas and get through customs when you can do it locally for greater profit margins. Which aren’t that great to begin with, without volume they are dead.
West,
Car company analogy doesn’t apply to Pharma. There is very little money in lowest value added work. It will be very difficult for SGS to survive. These days, chemical libraries are made in China or India and shipped to their local biology department for screening. I was told that even complex work like protein crystallography is outsourced to Asian companies. Only the data comes to US for regulatory filing. Do you know how much it costs to dispose chemical waste here? I believe they throw it in the river in china.
Team America, Parker and Stone tend to be the smartest satirists in the room. I don’t know if that should make me cry or laugh.
sas3, we are in a 3rd world country. look around yo! The elites have been importing cheap labor under the guise of multiculturalism for more than 35 years and exporting high paying jobs. The safety net that was paid for by the middleclass is about to be eliminated by the same a-holes. I say it’s time to see a few like Soros and Buffet hang from lamp posts then maybe the message will get through.
3b – This is a shocker…
The nation’s baby boomers – 76 million people born between 1946 and 1964 – were the first generation to grow up in suburbia, and the suburbs is where many chose to rear their own children. Now, as the oldest boomers turn 65, demographers and local planners predict that most of them will not move to retirement areas such as Florida and Arizona. They will stay put.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/if-baby-boomers-stay-in-suburbia-analysts-predict-cultural-shift/2011/06/27/AGeMLUoH_story.html?hpid=z1
Dog Bites Man; in other news, AP Felates NAR
Spring buying boosts home prices in 13 US cities
We outsourced the american dream. Don’t worry, we’ll all sell insurance.
119
yup… those guys are hysterical…
Always
Be
Closing
Pine,
That’s why I worry about eating fish in China. SGS doesn’t mind following the customer to China – that’s what they did in their consumer testing biz. I’m not the pharma expert on my team, but just saw a presentation from him. Seems that pharma has spent massively on R&D past 10 yrs with very little to show for it in terms of new moneymakers. Theory is that entirely in-house departments tend to be less creative than those with more external contacts. A garage in a university may be better than a gold plated big pharma R&D lab at real innovation.
Your comments suggest that NJ offices/labs of pharma companies are not where the indespensible advances are being made. Is that right?
Who the heck wants to sit in a lab coat in a surburban new jersey off ramp industrial park all day doing pharma testing? Jersey girls just get a reality TV show and Jersey guys all got get rich quick schemes.
Seriously though, Pharma requires intense studying in HS, College and Grad School and then the job is boring. It is extremely important but kids today have the WII, DS Light, Facebook, Droids, IPODS and IPADS, trips to all fun places, tons of party, senior beach day, party school for college and then shore houses, ski houses, hamptons and travel all in their teens and twenties.
I once briefly dated a girl who worked for Kellogs. She was in charge of coming up with new Chemicals, additives, artificial flavors that go in ceral. She was like look at Kellog Corn Flakes some crazy chemical I could not pronounce that was hers. WOW. BLAH BLAH BLAH. OMG she had a white chem coat and everything.
That scientific mind is interesting, but bottom line who do you want to bang Daffney or Velma?
pine_brook says:
June 28, 2011 at 1:39 pm
96
3b,
I went for an interview last week in Boston. It is a start up biotech. The business model is to outsource 90% of the research work to Asia. The guy there told me he had to pay 400K FTE in USA where as in China, FTE for a researcher is 75K. I am hearing from my current company that we are going 100% outsourcing. That means no more labs here and this approach is being pushed on us by external consultants as a way to survive. I do not foresee any improvement in hiring anytime soon especially in pharma. I am sure this is the case for all other industries. If the outsourcing trend accelerates, the economy will never recover. I dont own a home here in NJ. I am not planning to buy anytime soon because of the job uncertainty. I hope things get better in the future and not turn out to be like the one hobo is foreseeing!
A. West I would actually agree with that statement having worked in the lab for Pharma R&D managment becomes more concerned with the stock price than taking risks. Biologics are the future and the best products do come from patent licensing through universities. Pay for the equipment and endowments for the preclinical work at the universiity level, give the lead researcher and the university a cut of the patent. Outsource the rest overseas. the best and worst thing the FDA ever did was allow the acceptance of clinical data from outside the US to be accepted for drug submissions. As long as the study populations are equitable and demograpically varied pharma can save a significant amount of cash using Africa, Eastern Europe and Asia. Why develop here, especially when your demonized for making a profit.
JJ being a dorky science guy Velma, but I find glasses and bobby socks kind of hot
As long as issues like gay marriage and ab-ortion are top issues for many Republican primary voters, it is difficult for a traditional — fiscal-hawk — Republican to come out of the primary as a strong nominee. We must slash the federal budget and scale back the reach of government — not because government cannot and does not do good things (which onemay debate) but — because we cannot afford a governmentcost structure created when we had a different type and strength economy.
If we agree to raise taxes before every possible cut is made, congress will simply use the money to “save a valuable program.” First slash to get a ballanced budget, then use any tax increases to cut debt, not the deficit, DEBT. Any other course is a dead end.
“glasses and bobby socks kind of hot”
Not quite garters and fishnets, though, is it?
West,
I think you are correct. We lost the ability to produce new drugs that can make billions. That is leading to layoffs and cause insecurity. Coupled with outsourcing, I don’t think anybody is motivated to innovate. Lot of new ideas are now a days originating from our universities and that leads to creation of biotechs. My worry is although the ideas are American, the labor to make them in to new drugs are going to Asia. Most of the benefits of intellectual capital to the society is the downstream job creation (development and manufacturing). The investors and the professors at the top make big bucks. Nobody else gets anything here (some may be for outsourcing managers). Most go to to Asia.
Shore
I see an easy compromise here….
glasses, labcoat, garters, stilettos & nothing else.
Kettle,
I am all about reasonable compromise. Life is too short.
Question: how do you make a small fortune?
Answer: take a large fortune and start a science-based R & D pharmaceutical company in New Jersey.
I was under the impression that Wall St no longer can sell startup Pharmas after all of the rotten eggs that were laid of the last decade and isn’t big Pharma just investing with the VCs and buying up startups that are already in advanced trials?
Shore most of the fishnets and garters girls tended to use props for the total lack of talent in the bedroom.
Haven’t lived until you have been with a shy science girl who is a stunner behind the glasses and bobby socks. Also a total rock star in the budois.
RE US social programs:
A large % of US social programs are ponzi schemes at their core. What is even worse is that those ponzi schemes were initiated in the very beginning of a population bulge (the boomers). As a result they are virtually guaranteed to fail simply because any ponzi scheme requires that the base remain larger then the top. The ponzi of US social programs has now begun the terminal transition from being bottom heavy as is required for a semi-stable ponzi to being top heavy which is guaranteed to crash a ponzi.
The only way out is to reduce the “payouts” (i.e. benefits) until the payout top of the ponzi is smaller then the pay-in base. With the economy shrinking and globalization driving incomes down that means that the pay-outs at the top of the ponzi must decrease even more.
Pain
does she need a thigh holster as well? ;)
[120] “we are in a 3rd world country. look around you!”
Nonsense. I look around me and I see a beautiful, vibrant country bouncing back (apart from that itsy-bitsy problem regarding the currency collapse). I also see unicorns and skittle droppings, and yes both are vibrant and beautiful.
Pain,
I am married. I’m just interested in the visual.
Pine, us Pharma regulatory compliance guys do well also. The travel just tends to drive us nuts
“A large % of US social programs are ponzi schemes at their core. What is even worse is that those ponzi schemes were initiated in the very beginning of a population bulge ”
When half the working population pays no net income tax and only a small fraction of the cost of providing the health and retirement benefits they expect to receive in retirement, why would they want to cut anything?
Shore me too, Ket only if it has a modified PPK with the sheared down shear pin and a light trigger pull.
re # 142 – re: retirement – Just back from the Midwest this morning. Serious discussions were held with the Baby Boomer Inlaws about retirement. They now have a new plan to downsize and move to live Near (with us) when they are done working. I told them a nice detour to live with their son near Detroit would be better.
Shore
thirsty? 1 Sievert Water Leaking From Fukushima
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/8411193/Highly-radioactive-water-leaks-outside-Japans-nuclear-plant-building.html
Come here and comply, it is what the Doctor orders http://static.zoovy.com/img/summitfashions/W200-H250-
Ket,
Some would say that is bad news. An ad agency could spin it thus:
That is GREAT news! The stuff has GOT to be pure. No pathogens in that stuff. And, it will kill every bad bug in one’s gut. The good ones too, but that is why we have probiotic yogurt.
SHore
A temporary meltdown inside the core of the Number 2 reactor was possibly the cause of the building’s contaminated water
I didnt realize japan had the advanced technology to reverse what is for all intents and purposes a thermodynamically irreversible process. Or are nuclear cores now made of memory metals?
John,
If my doctor looked like that, I think I would never miss a yearly physical. And, if my current MD dressed like that, I would gouge my eyes out.
Yea, just like some eye glass frames.
Off to a conference call. Happy blogging.
Shore 147
better not forget the disclaimers for
Deinococcus radiodurans and various radiotrophic fungus
pine brook (107)-
Yeah. Declare war on China and India.
“Can anybody think of any kind of legislation that can stop services outsourcing?”
Hobo is a visionary. only thing left after this tumult just might be the uber-rich and the poor. those with current 8 or 9 figure plus net worth may survive /thrive in this new world order. but to all you newborn-libertarians with lesser means watch out below!!
vodka (145)-
Is that 1 Sievert the actual number, or rounded?
Hobo for benevolent dictator!
Pol Pot was onto a good thing. Kill anyone with any shred of political thought.
Too bad the whole thing just morphed into kill everybody.
hobo
Knowing the officials involved it was probably rounded down to 1.
1 – 3 Sv (1000 – 3000 mSv): Mild to severe nausea, loss of appetite, infection; more severe bone marrow, lymph node, spleen damage; recovery probable, not assured.
hobo [153]
stop services outsourcing Well, doubling the size of the R&D credit (like in Singapore) seems to do the trick. All pharma cos growing there like mushrooms despite terrible climate and salaries not that far from the ones here. For the call centers, etc. – 10 cents/minute charge for all international calls (standard or VOIP) – rebated if you are a retail customer – will destroy the overseas business model in about 3 months.
Dude, everybody knows you can live without a spleen
The science girl was plain jane type dresser. Boring. But I was like what the heck try something different. Do a quick date as she did not seem type for first time then followed up with a date to MOMA and then some wine and tappas place, then back to her place. She tells me about her ceral work and I am like what did I do, then the the strangest things happened. She out of blue did something to this day I have never seen done. I can’t explain it as I don’t know how she did it. She went down one me mounted me and when we were done I had a rubber on. She said she knows a trick how to put on one a guy with her mouth without them knowing. I was like really, really? Even Charlie Sheen girls can’t do that. I go where did you learn that, she goes well I had a boyfriend for a few years and I like to do research on things so I studied and applied different techiniques with him till I perfected a few moves. I was like Really? Velma won that day. But then again even Fred does not want to do Dafney.
Painhrtz – Salmon of Doubt says:
June 28, 2011 at 3:28 pm
JJ being a dorky science guy Velma, but I find glasses and bobby socks kind of hot
cobbler (159)-
My cousin has been in Singapore for Bausch & Lomb for over a year, putting up a factory. He’s living like a king and having a blast.
Latest e-mails to me indicate he & the wifey are thinking about not coming back.
Hobo,
I do not see a solution to our job problem other than by means of trade war with Asia.
Most of the high paying jobs are in manufacturing and services (not the nail salon type). These jobs create many downstream low paying jobs. Once you take away the high paying jobs, the whole system becomes shaky. We need to bring back these jobs. Free market is not going to do it. Trade war now!
hobo [162]
The problems with Singapore are (a) you have to have an AC on 365 days a year, I hate it, and (b) behavior control is too totalitarian to my taste. Economy, however, kicks a$$.
Singapore = High Rise Living, and forget it if you want to own a car. Tax when you buy one cost like 150% of the sticker price. I have friends from there now living in Newport Beach CA, they told me it is better here! LOL! Ofcourse they are ex-pats from China.
Hong Kong is better although China may crack down on the Capitalists any day now. they do have schools for ex-pats in both places.
127….
was another JJ classic, in case you just skimmed.
“That scientific mind is interesting, but bottom line who do you want to bang Daffney or Velma?”
oh wait, nevermind…you all saw it.
#141 Pain
“Pine, us Pharma regulatory compliance guys do well also.”
I have a buddy that outsources that.
With outsourcing there are two plays, be the one outsourcing and managing the returns or be the one outsourced to.
#164 cobber
Singapore is a great place. Follow the rules and you don’t have a problem. Cars are still the big status symbol and nothing over 10 years old is allowed.
As for Hong Kong, before the hadnover it was in parts like the last days of Rome for the expat community, after the handover, it calmed down and the party moved on. Those that stayed, settled down to the quiet life and now it is very similar to Singapore. It would make no sense to close it down now.
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