From the WSJ:
Bernanke Overrides Opposition to Low-Rate Policy, Suggesting Weaker Voice for Fed’s Inflation Hawks
Ben Bernanke on Tuesday faced the stiffest internal opposition a Federal Reserve chairman has confronted in nearly 20 years, highlighting his determination to do whatever he sees as essential to supporting a weak economy.
For the first time since 1992, when Alan Greenspan was chairman, three out of 10 voting officials dissented from the central bank’s decision to tell the public it plans to keep short-term interest rates close to zero at least until mid-2013.
The move is aimed at boosting the economy by pushing back the expectation of when rates will rise from current record lows, thus keeping borrowing costs down and potentially driving investors into stocks. Previously, the central bank said rates would remain at record lows for an “extended period,” meaning at least several months, not years.
But Richard Fisher of the Dallas Fed, Narayana Kocherlakota of Minneapolis and Charles Plosser of Philadelphia were against the move. They have expressed concerns that the Fed’s easy-money policies risk driving inflation too high and might create a bubble like the housing boom at the root of the recent financial crisis.
Mr. Bernanke’s Fed is more open and less personality-driven than that of his predecessors, Mr. Greenspan and Paul Volcker, making dissents more likely. But the central bank has traditionally strived to avoid more than two dissents for fear they would be seen as a vote of no confidence in the chairman. Mr. Bernanke’s resolve to push ahead suggests he won’t hesitate to take bolder steps if he deems them necessary to help the economy.
“I’m absolutely confident Bernanke won’t be deterred by the three dissenters,” said Larry Meyer, a Fed governor from 1996 to 2002, now at forecasting company Macroeconomic Advisers.
Mr. Bernanke’s willingness to override three dissents could be evidence of a shift toward a majority-rule, decision-making process at the Fed, in which a minority of officials worried about higher inflation, such as Mr. Fisher, Mr. Kocherlakota and Mr. Plosser, are marginalized.
So what is the next bubble?
Good Morning New Jersey
From the WSJ:
Rental Options Sought On Foreclosed Homes
The Obama administration will announce plans Wednesday to seek investors’ ideas for turning thousands of foreclosed properties owned by government-backed entities into rental homes, according to administration officials.
The move is intended to put a floor under declining home prices by creating a way to deal with hundreds of thousands of potential foreclosures in coming years.
Mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sold a record 100,000 homes during the second quarter. Together with the Federal Housing Administration, the entities owned about 250,000 homes at the end of June, or around half of all unsold, repossessed properties. Another 830,000 homes backed by the entities are in some stage of foreclosure, according to Barclays Capital.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates Fannie and Freddie, will issue the formal “request for information” with the administration to solicit proposals that shrink the glut of foreclosed properties weighing on the residential market.
Banks are usually faster than mom-and-pop sellers to cut prices in order to unload properties quickly. In many hard-hit markets, more than half the sales have been made to non-owner-occupant investors—at discounts. The upshot is that home prices will continue to fall if many properties continue to be sold out of foreclosure. That has made it harder for traditional sellers to sell their homes at prices potential buyers have agreed to because foreclosures are driving down appraised values, killing some agreed-upon deals at the closing table.
“The process by which you sell foreclosures is largely determining what happens to home prices,” said Oliver Chang, head of U.S. housing strategy at Morgan Stanley.
One proposal would sell packages of hundreds or thousands of foreclosed properties in bulk to investors that agree to rent them out. That approach is preferred by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which is taking back properties as defaults mount on loans backed by the FHA.
Honk If I’m Paying Your Mortgage
No. 3 I was just thinking about that movie with Joe Pesci “The Super” when he played a slumlord.
Sad how the traditionally responsible people get marginalized. Punish the innocent & reward the guilty, Obama nation change.
From the NYT:
Its Forecast Dim, Fed Vows to Keep Rates Near Zero
The Federal Reserve made a rare promise on Tuesday to hold short-term interest rates near zero through at least the middle of 2013, in a sign that it has all but written off the chances of an expansion strong enough to drive up wages and prices.
It is now conventional wisdom among forecasters that the economy will plod along through the end of President Obama’s first term in office. Millions of Americans will not find work. Wages will not rise substantially.
By its action, the Fed is declaring that it, too, sees little prospect of rapid growth and little risk of inflation. Its hope is that the showman’s gesture will spur investment and risk-taking by convincing markets that the cost of borrowing will not rise for at least two years.
From the Star Ledger:
N.J.’s senior economist keeps positive outlook, remains cautiously optimistic about state’s economic future
The state’s senior economist said Tuesday that despite growing unease over the nation’s shaky economy, he is not revising his positive outlook for New Jersey.
“We expect the unemployment rate to go down and incomes to rise, maybe not as rapidly as we would like, but that’s what we expect,” said Charles Steindel, chief economist for the New Jersey Department of Treasury.
Steindel’s cautious optimism comes in the wake of a dizzying dose of bad economic news, starting with Standard & Poor’s historic decision Friday to downgrade the federal government’s credit rating, which sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting by 635 points on Monday, the sixth-largest decline in its history.
…
New Jersey’s budget relies heavily on Wall Street, and the state’s treasurer, Andrew P. Sidamon-Eristoff, said in an interview Tuesday that it was too soon to draw conclusions about recent events.
He said time would tell whether the gyrations of the past several days will be turn out to be a blip driven by national politics or economic realities.
“I wouldn’t expect anything we’ve seen so far to have a hugely significant impact, but we will continue to monitor the situation” Eristoff said. “Our revenue estimates were very conservative, and we are basically dead on right now.”
…
New Jersey’s credit rating has already taken several hits in recent months, leaving it with one of the lowest rankings in the county and making it more costly to borrow.
MBA says refi activity skyrocketed last week
“So what is the next bubble?”
Gold and treasuries. Emerging markets are also a possible bubble.
Too obvious, no?
Can you imagine telling someone back in the 80s paying double digit rates that in 2011 you locked in your mortgage at 4.25% and then refinanced in 2012 at 3.25%?
Solar Storms Building Toward Peak in 2013, NASA Predicts
Like the Nicholas Cage movie “Knowing”?
#1>> “So what is the next bubble?”
Summer camp
“Too obvious, no?”
Possibly but I think bubbles are usually obvious, they just come with excellent justifications.
“Sad how the traditionally responsible people get marginalized. Punish the innocent & reward the guilty”
Whether it is for the sake of irresponsible buyers or saving the asses of the banks, all the meddling is geared towards keeping home prices inflated…we know that. If there was a strong united voice or organization out there fighting for the responsible buyers and savers what options would they be fighting for? Besides not obstructing the free market forces and letting prices fall, what can be petitioned for on the other side?
“what can be petitioned for on the other side?”
Debtors prison. Indentured servitude. They should have let Goldman go bankrupt and made Blankfein somebody’s houseboy for the next 30 years.
10. “Gold and treasuries. Emerging markets are also a possible bubble.”
Agreed, but I would add higher education before emerging markets.
summer camp ;)
Bonds are about as overbought as you can get. Bubble may be the wrong term, but I’d seriously stay away.
Distressed inventory needs a floor defined. Right now, nobody’s stepping into the room with the holes in the floor.
Use the hud auction process already in place, with preferences to FTHB and surcharges on bids by RE agents within two weeks of a non-re bid (to discourage outbidding of clients). No RTC-type organization with overtones of waste, paperwork and bad snake-oil.
Once the floor is set after the first six scheduled auctions, pack ’em up in lots and give communities first rights at floor price.
Next Bubble is poverty unless we open another front. The green energy bubble never even got off the ground Wall St could not make it happen no carbon credits, Al Gore is non-existent in the media, heck I hear the Polar Bears are making a comeback.
Since there is no longer a shadow menace like AlQueda I think we are going after a real fighting enemy. Iran is a possibility we already have them under siege, and surrounded with bases. It’t only a matter of time before the shooting starts.
Gold will be a bubble when its around 12500 an ounce around 2016.
4.125, 30 year, 0 fees this AM is the best rate I see.
22.
I agree. When there are no bubbles to blow then war is the only other option. Ive been watching WW2 in color. Think Ill sit that one knowing the financial oligarchs of our country financed both sides of the war including Hitler.
“I’m going to do something different, I’m actually going to stay with a fan for the first two, three weeks of the season,” he said Tuesday. “That should be fun, until I get myself acclimated and learn my way around.”
Ochocinco hasn’t yet picked the fan.
“I’m not sure how it’s going to work, but they have to have Internet and have to have Xbox,” he said. “That’s about it.”
His lawyer was really reaching with this defense strategy
—————————————————
A Speculator Takes Blame for Mortgage Mess
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-10/a-speculator-takes-blame-for-mortgage-mess-commentary-by-leonard-goodman.html
Townsend is a 52-year-old black man from the South Side of Chicago. He had been a train conductor and a part-time real-estate agent until 2005, when he attended a seminar on how to use other people’s good credit to invest in property with no money down.
During the next two years, Townsend used such “nominee purchasers” to buy 21 homes. Eager-to-please mortgage lenders provided 100 percent financing for the loans, which were then repackaged by Wall Street investment banks and sold to investors.
About a week after each home purchase, Townsend would enter into a written contract with the nominee buyer in which he agreed to make all the mortgage payments and to pay the buyer a flat fee of about $15,000. In return, Townsend got the right to re-sell the property and realize the anticipated gains from the then-rising housing market.
Rates have changed but if you count spread they have not.
Usually bank takes long term rates and tack on 2% to come up with mortgage rates.
When we had 16% mortgage long term rates were like 14%. now ten year rates is 2.25% and mortgage is 4.25%
250k says:
August 10, 2011 at 7:39 am
Can you imagine telling someone back in the 80s paying double digit rates that in 2011 you locked in your mortgage at 4.25% and then refinanced in 2012 at 3.25%?
Did we really saved the banks or it was the investors and the rich?If the clock can be turned around I would have let everybody get wiped out.Not just one side of the coin suffering.
More on the Siege, if you have kids that are of age to be drafted make sure they are in college or join the Air Force reserves.
http://www.thefinancialmarketnews.com/don’t-get-it-twisted-we-are-already-at-war-with-iran
BTW Bonds are not in a bubble. Bond Funds are in a bubble, Treasuries are in a bubble. But yesterday Junk Bonds had very high yields, callable high coupon long term munis also were a good defensive move, Bank Trups and certain MBS and triple AAA Munits that got downgraded with USA yesterday was also good values.
Just because money markets, treasuries, bank cds and bond funds with long duration or bond funds that use leverage to enhance yield are in a bubble does not mean it is all in a bubble. That is one reason Bill Gross Total Return fund does somewhat good, he is limited to fixed income but can move around to different classes of bonds. The funds that are locked in long only treasuries are extremely bubble like now.
Only black man I know from the South Side of Chicago is named Leroy Brown. And he is the baddest man in the whole damm town.
FKA 2010 Buyer says:
August 10, 2011 at 8:32 am
His lawyer was really reaching with this defense strategy
—————————————————
A Speculator Takes Blame for Mortgage Mess
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-10/a-speculator-takes-blame-for-mortgage-mess-commentary-by-leonard-goodman.html
Townsend is a 52-year-old black man from the South Side of Chicago. He had been a train conductor and a part-time real-estate agent until 2005, when he attended a seminar on how to use other people’s good credit to invest in property with no money down.
If they told me in the 1981 when I bought a home for $135,000 that I would sell it in the 2000’s for multi millions I would have told them they were crazy. It’s all relative.
250k says:
August 10, 2011 at 7:39 am
Can you imagine telling someone back in the 80s paying double digit rates that in 2011 you locked in your mortgage at 4.25% and then refinanced in 2012 at 3.25%?
The Homebokens should be welcoming a new member to the family today. Watching cnbc while wife has contractions is a fun game. So far Cramer has induced the worst ones!
#28 I don’t think the next draft will have a college exemption. All 18 y/o, men and women, will be drafted. Not sure how being in the AF reserves will help as they will be activated and sent overseas.
#32 That’s great news! Congrats!
Congrats Homeboken. Hope it’s smooth sailing for the birth.
I’m still waiting for someone to explain to me how nominal prices in our area will not be down another 20% in the next few years.
S&P Futures are down 26 pts with Dow Futures down 234 pts
HUGE MOVE AT OPEN< Tons of vol ready to be executed. 18 minutes to show time.
It is a time when men will be men, now back to real estate.
Dumb and dumber (BOA & Fannie)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904007304576498793010276516.html?mod=mktw
#36 We are special??
chicagofinance says:
August 9, 2011 at 7:02 pm
Loading up on discount TruPS trading to the fuking call……I locked in something that I’m betting is a 50% upside with a 9.5% yield to call…..
JJ says:
August 9, 2011 at 4:57 pm
BAC Trups and Perfs also rocked the house!!! I had my finger on trigger of AXP and HIG but I got all nancy boy instead of gangsta.
yo’me says:
August 9, 2011 at 4:51 pm
BAC top winner of the day
Homo,
Congrats. Shut of CNBC and enjoy the moment.
More layoffs.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-new-york-mellon-cutting-1500-jobs-2011-08-10-924340?link=MW_home_latest_news
Down 138 at the open.
#32 homo
The last thing in your mind should be cnbc. It has never given anything to you in the past and never will in to the future. Enjoy the birth of your child..
I am back on the sidelines.
K HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES NT 11.87500% 10/15/2015MAKE WHOLE
Price (Ask) 59.000
Yield to Worst (Ask) 29.590%
NJ Housing must be doing great!! Hovnanian can afford to pay 30% on its bonds!
down 311, get the dow 10K hat out and start picking your future winners. TRUPS are gangsta style easy money
JJ,
You thinking QE 3 announcement within the first 2 weeks of Sept?
Rumors of France being downgraded is contributing to this morning’s sell off. Also IMO if you read the Fed’s statement, it is incredibly negative for the economy across the board, perhaps it is bing given a second look today also contributing to the sell off.
US Mint Out of Gold?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44087084
“So what is the next bubble?”
Prada sunglasses, iPads, and soybeans.
SAS
Grim mentioned that the foreclosed homes would be sold in bulk and not allowed to reenter the market. Well here it is.
The Obama administration will announce plans Wednesday to seek investors’ ideas for turning thousands of foreclosed properties owned by government-backed entities into rental homes, according to administration officials.
The move is intended to put a floor under declining home prices by creating a way to deal with hundreds of thousands of potential foreclosures in coming years.
Mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sold a record 100,000 homes during the second quarter. Together with the Federal Housing Administration, the entities owned about 250,000 homes at the end of June, or around half of all unsold, repossessed properties. Another 830,000 homes …
“One proposal would sell packages of hundreds or thousands of foreclosed properties in bulk to investors that agree to rent them out. ”
Was someone saying something about skyrocketing rent costs helping to stabilize the housing market? I wonder how rents will “skyrocket” when the government floods the rental market with all of the “pant up” foreclosed properties …
Yesterday was too knee jerk at the end of the day. Probably bunch of shorts having tight buy stops on not knowing what the Fed would do and bulls taking advantage by blowing through them. Still more selling to go where it ends nobody knows.
Re: 49 – Fed’s statement was intended for congress, we shall see them move legislation forward on housing, everyone will get a chance to rent a government owned home in an Obamaville. Make no mistake the zombie banks will never clear their balance sheets, BAC alone has a trillion dollars worth of Non performing loans which the just tried to settle about half of it for 2 cents on the dollar, they are getting blocked by the Attorney generals and the courts so nw it is up to congress to act. Fun times ahead.
Interesting day, when DOW was already down 300, I put 20 5k low ball limit orders on 20 blue blue chip stocks. I would not be suprised to see a drop to 600 down then up 450 to end day around 150 down. Stocks are jumpy.
Re:53 – 1 to 2 cents on the dollar, RTC version 2.0 legislation is coming.
52.
Juice,
Thats just nationalization of housing. Thats why Fannie and Freddie were created.
Veto [10],
Just curious, do you think gold is in a bubble present day or in the future? Also, do you base your analysis on prices or participation rate?
Present day bubble; delusion.
Al – rules are Freddie and Fraudie can only finance the sale of these repossessed homes in small of about a dozen to any one company. They are moving to allow anyone looking to buy thousands of homes in lots to create Obamavilles of rentals at cents on the dollar all financed by the taxpayer using fiat. The legislation will include what is on the banks balance sheets too.
60.
Juice,
Thanks for clarifying. Sounds like a perfect future for the hundreds of retirement communities that litter the garden state.
House I looked at recently down the shore a forclosure was pulled off the market, ask was 1/3 the assessed value and it came with another 200k FHA to fix it up. Make no mistake RTC 2.0 is coming and you won’t be able to buy, it is all going to the qualified securitized investors. It might take another 2 years for congress to act but it is coming.
62.
Juice,
Very interesting. There is a foreclosed home in my neighborhood thats been sitting empty for > 2 years. Its a very nice brand new home thats priced about 100k too high. For the life of me I couldnt figure out why the bank wouldnt list it. Now I know.
Re:63 first piece of legislation signed by GHWB when he took office was for the RTC
64.
Juice,
I suspect our new Super Congress will fast track a lot of the legislation thats been hard to pass including gun control. This should render the rest of Congress impotent.
The coup is complete. The brainchild of this is the Royal Institute, CFR, and the trilateral commission.
It’s quite funny that the things that worked in the past that should have been done in 2008 – set up of something similar to the RTC- is being done after trillions of $ have been wasted. Maybe Glass Steagall will return in a few years too.
RTC was amazing. I bought my first coop from RTC. In my case did a Dutch auction of 43 units, all absolute. Rule simple. Pay for 10% of unit at auction. Sign contract to purchase at auction. Non refundable, no lawyer present. You bought the sucker.
How it worked all 43 units on board, first bidder who was highest gets to pick from all 43, second highest bidder gets to pick from all 42, etc etc. I bid with just six units on board, four studios and two one bedrooms, I got a one bedroom for 27K that was fully renovated, new kitchen, windows, paint carpet etc. They gave me the receipts that is cost 10K to renovated. I had to put 25% down. So I had to put $6,750 down and took a $20,250 30 year mortgage. Units originally were 100K unrenovated three years earlier. RTC, just let them bad boys rip. My coop building was completely recovered within 24 months, happy new owners in renovated buildings who bought units 75% off. The deadbeat underwater bitter bubble buyers were gone, replaced with happy campers.
First casualty of the collapse?
“A South Korean stock broker jumped to his death from a high-rise office amid worldwide market turmoil.
The 48-year-old broker, identified only as “Seo,” sent text messages to colleagues expressing regret over severe losses, just minutes before leaping to his death Wednesday in the city of Daegu, according to Chief investigator Lee Kang-ho.”
http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/weird/Stock-Broker-Leaps-to-Death-Amid-Market-Plunge-127451503.html
Rate:2.990%Payment:$1,473.73
bi-weeklyLoan Amount:$700,000Closing Costs:$36,478
estimated
ING rates on a five year adj loan for 700K! Under a 3k monthly mortgage on a 700k balance
JJ,
Check their closing costs. They seem higher than others like Amerisave.
Real Talk to the Board:
If you think RTC 2.0 is coming in the next year or two, what would you do in the interim to take advantage of this turmoil (GME with foreclosed homes on their hands)? That’s assuming you still have good credit, a job, etc…..all things that would qualify you for a loan.
Al – rules are Freddie and Fraudie can only finance the sale of these repossessed homes in small of about a dozen to any one company. They are moving to allow anyone looking to buy thousands of homes in lots to create Obamavilles of rentals at cents on the dollar all financed by the taxpayer using fiat. The legislation will include what is on the banks balance sheets too.
Juice,
If true, lets pool some capital and buy 50 homes, create the NJREREPORT first fund.
Holy Sh_t! Theres my number! 3.875 30 year conforming 0 fees.
Gold $1,787.50 $1,789.50 $44.50
Silver $38.85 $38.95 $0.96
Armageddon b_tchez! LMAO
72,
Make,
Im thinking we can buy up the town of Irvington. Bulldoze it down and then install bike paths.
Al[73,]
Which outfit?
Al,
What site has the 30 year 3.875 no fees?
#59
Gold has a lot more left in the tank but it will eventually deflate. Between now and that point; interesting times.
Al if you can buy a few square miles of irvington near the border with lets say maplewood, you could do some significant redevelopment. It is what needs to be done there, you could build one hell of a master planned community and probably sell homes on 1/3 acre lots for 750k. You’d need to be annexed from Irvington of course because the school system is bad and the town has a bad reputation but the location is convenient.
Make,
This is a quote from US mortgage capital.
http://www.usmtgcap.com/
December gold just printed at $1800
re: #72 – Make if you did the same thing in Detroit in 1991 you would have probably
gone bust the first year trying to fix them up and rent them.
I know it’s magically unicornishly differently around here and all but there is nothing preventing NJ from from imploding. The Wall St layoffs are only beginning, anyone worth their salt on WS should have be trying to transfer to Asia or South America last year, we have friends that did and went to Hong Kong, if they didn’t they both would be unemployed right now. My company is expanding to South America, I am meeting next week with them to discuss opportunities, and will gladly take off if given the chance for a few years anyway. A long time coworker of mine up and left for California this week, got a job on the first interview with FB and will perhaps make a killing. He was done living here for the last 13 years, the high taxes, stress, and lifestyle was killing him only reason he stayed were because his kids were in school here.
I don’t see any opportunity around here employment wise and I a not about to become a slum lord for Obamavilles.
Saw this on a newsbrief I received:
“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”
–Henry Ford,
American industrialist
….and when this one doesn’t work, there’s always bulldozers and inflation. You aren’t going to get that nice house that you’ve been dreaming of at that 1999 price. They won’t let you.
“You aren’t going to get that nice house that you’ve been dreaming of at that 1999 price. They won’t let you.”
Thankfully, when you’ve got shiny, “they” have no say in the matter.
Don’t have kids yet, but agree pretty much with this. I started looking at properties in Mass and CT but now looking at homes in NH. May not be NJ with all its benefits but at least it’s not NJ with all its negatives.
#82
He was done living here for the last 13 years, the high taxes, stress, and lifestyle was killing him only reason he stayed were because his kids were in school here.
I don’t see any opportunity around here employment wise and I a not about to become a slum lord for Obamavilles.
Here are the 3 Republican nominees to the Super Congress.
From the Senate, McConnell chose Jon Kyl of Arizona, Pat Toomey of Pennsyvania, and Rob Portman of Ohio.
Say goodbye to Medicare and Social Security. The folks that rely on Medicare will be shortchanged via lack of access. Then they can blame the docs.
Last week, the state of Connecticut has sent out layoff notices to nearly 3,000 workers, stated the governor’s office.
Tick… tick… tick… tick…
The Obama administration will announce plans Wednesday to seek investors’ ideas for turning thousands of foreclosed properties owned by government-backed entities into rental homes, according to administration officials.
How ironic… we used to be Bedford Falls and President Whiner yearns to convert us to Pottersville.
Juice [82];
A long time coworker of mine up and left for California this week, got a job on the first interview with FB and will perhaps make a killing. He was done living here for the last 13 years, the high taxes, stress, and lifestyle was killing him …
Aside from a potential killing with FB employee stock options, what same person believes that CA is better situated than NY for high taxes, high stress and lifestyle (WeverTF that means)? It may be different, but not by any reasonable measure better.
Mayor Rahm Emanuel is sending layoff notices to about 625 city of Chicago employees — and delaying 61 blocks of curb and gutter improvements and 76 blocks of sidewalk repairs — after union leaders didn’t agree to work-rule changes the mayor wants or offer alternate ways to cut costs by a deadline Friday.
LOL! More irony!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OlSd9OURbCE
This is a classic. He just looses it and says FCUK it I’m just going to say it.
LOVE IT.
Both people I mentioned are property owners in new jersey and I guarantee the wil eventually jingle mail their homes here.
92. make money.
That was fun. Now I’m not as smart as most of the people on here, but how is, as proposed during the rant, Obama “stepping up” and creating a bank that lends at 2% any different than Freddy or Fannie? I’m confuzzeled as per usual.
#87 regarding the Super Congress, am I mistaken or are they supposed to have their recommendations ready before Thanksgiving?
95,
Yes. Thanksgiving is the target to cut I believe 1.5 trillion. Dont quote me on the exact number.
Funny how they are going to raise the tax rate on cap gains after a stock market crash. Sure some rich short sellers will make out but 95% of people are long stocks.
I think Gold is short term overbought here. Im selling 20% of my holdings and waiting for a pullback.
#96 No way they are done by that date IMO.
Veto [98],
Not a bad idea. How about buying puts and rolling them up if the advance continues?
Green shoots or depression?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-sells-debt-at-record-low-yield-bonds-gain-2011-08-10?siteid=bnbh
Green shoots the cake boss line is 2 blocks long this afternoon.
#02 Juice:Well you know what Marie said if the people have no bread, than let them eat cake!!!
Beaches Turks and Caicos is sold out for months and months on end. At around one thousand a night. It is full of NJ/NY middle class families. The recession is imanginary. Or maybe they are spending their refi savings!
Juice Box says:
August 10, 2011 at 1:36 pm
Green shoots the cake boss line is 2 blocks long this afternoon.
I am thinking of opening a Zombie Bank. Might be good business model because if I don’t get paid back I can send the Zombies over to eat your children.
So after Chairman O creates millions of new renters dependent on government intervention, will bending over backwards to help renters live the American Dream become the new thing? Maybe my bail-out is in the works after all.
Al #87: And as usual, the Dems are waiting to see which way the wind blows before naming Lieberman, Baucus, and Shuler to the Committee.
“Obama to meet with Fed chair Bernanke Wednesday
Grappling for economic fixes, Obama meets with Bernanke at White House Wednesday ”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-to-meet-with-Fed-chair-apf-971532682.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Rally on
Moose property taxes in California are quite a bit lower than NJ. My friend in San Jose pays about 3k in taxes. The weather is better, the traffic is bad, but they do work less and can get a script to relieve stress with some wacky weed.
No panacea like NJ right?
Start buying everything!!! O-man and the Beard are getting together!
#04The recession is imaginary. Or maybe they are spending their refi savings!
Nah, nah, nah, they can’t because they are underwater. And they are sad about that, and with all that stress, why shouldn’t they take a vacation!!!They are just charging it. I got 3 sets of checks this week from 3 different cards!!! I should just deposit and spend em!!!
Oh nevermind, people realized that’s not a good thing – sell! Sell!! SELL!!!
JJ cumon consumer credit rose 7.7% last month, biggest gain in 4 years, rates are near the point where you are better off going down the block to Vito for a loan instead.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Consumer credit grew 7.7%, or $15.5 billion, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.45 trillion in June, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. That marks the biggest jump in consumer credit since August 2007. Revolving credit such as credit cards grew 7.9%, or $5.21 billion, while nonrevolving credit such as auto and student loans grew 7.6%, or $10.32 billion
#51 SAS
>>>> “So what is the next bubble?”
>> Prada sunglasses, iPads, and soybeans.
I don’t know about the soybeans but no way on the Prada and iPads or iAnything. Go to the playground in downtown Millburn and look at all the nannies. they are wearing real Prada sunglasses and are clamoring for the iPhone5. They might use charity care for their medical needs but when it comes to trendy, they are all over it. This is what makes Apple so (seemingly) unstoppable.
Maintain a steep yield curve = continued risk free profits for the banks who will continue to see bad debt losses for years to come;
ZIRP “forever” = negative real interest rates for as far as the eye can see;
Shrink the Fed balance sheet? = “Lord, make me chaste, but not yet!” [alternatively: “This porridge is too cold”];
Expand the Fed balance sheet? Well we can’t recycle “Credit Easing” so we need to find another handle = “That which we call QE. By any other name would smell as sweet.” [alternatively: “This porridge is too hot”];
Maintain the Fed balance sheet? = “Ahh, this porridge is just right” [Ben in the role of Goldilocks];
Dow down 360 points = “Someone’s been eating my porridge,” growled the Papa Bear;
Oil up $1.90 = “Someone’s been sitting in my chair” growled the Papa Bear;
Gold knocking on $1800 = “Someone’s been sleeping in my bed” growled Papa Bear.
You know how it ends…
I am convinced there is no recession. It is a crisis of confidence not a crisis.
Most people in my town, own their homes and have used cars in their driveways. Heck my neighbor has same 1998 Taurus in driveway since I first saw the house in 1999. He never has done nothing to his house and he and his wife work. I don’t understand how anything going on effects most blue collar older people. He is like most blue collar people.
JJ: Be careful with your maverick ways. Moynihan (i.e. friggin’ hack) said BAC might take the option to bankrupt Countrywide……the shits have lost 6 handles on the mark in the last few hours.
#16 JJ Lots of house in my town that sold over the last 6 or 7 years, Beemers and Benz’s in the driveways, but the driveways are crumbling, the lawns have not been mowed in weeks, and the houses are falling into disrepair.
Oh and why is it that so many houses for sale today when you look at the pictures even more so the Mc Mansions, they have no furniture. Some people are using patio furniture for their dining rooms.
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA. I bought my house December 1999, and on my block not one single person has bought a new car or done a major home improvement. Heck they don’t even take vacations or go out to dinner. I bought only new car on block and that was only because of Employee Pricing deals. Funny part the 1996 Camry I sold tot he neighbor in 2005 is still his newest car. He has an 88 minivan, 93 Taurus and as he calls it his brand new 1996 Camry. Three houses near me sold recently cheap, but they were all estate sales, I doubt the dead really care. We dont do subprime near me. If you don’t every spend money you don’t borrow it.
3b says:
August 10, 2011 at 2:39 pm
#16 JJ Lots of house in my town that sold over the last 6 or 7 years, Beemers and Benz’s in the driveways, but the driveways are crumbling, the lawns have not been mowed in weeks, and the houses are falling into disrepair.
Oh and why is it that so many houses for sale today when you look at the pictures even more so the Mc Mansions, they have no furniture. Some people are using patio furniture for their dining rooms.
Juice [109];
Moose property taxes in California are quite a bit lower than NJ. My friend in San Jose pays about 3k in taxes. The weather is better, the traffic is bad, but they do work less and can get a script to relieve stress with some wacky weed.
CA Prop 13 caps property tax growth on current owners – the revals on sale are bruital as new entrants are hammered to make up the difference. They also invented something called “Mello-Roos”, which are property taxes by another name (like Wayne’s water district fees, perhaps?) and exempt from the cap.
Some friends in Western NY state complain about having the highest property taxes. That’s true, but only by percentage. I show them the bottom line tax bills in NJ or LI, and they are paying half as much. THe percentages are higher because the property values are so much lower. They have competitve school systems, etc., and if you want good services you need to pay for them. A good teacher isn’t going to work for $22,000 just because local housing is cheaper.
Meh, weather is weather; and I prefer Scotch.
No panacea like NJ right?
NJ can rot for all I care. I’m shackled to this area by work. This geography is like a stain on my my resume — enough interest locally, but I can’t get the time of day outside the tri-state area.
No more dancing with the stars for you.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/10/cable-tv-satellite-loses-subscribers_n_923034.html?utm_source=businessinsider.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=twitter
Juice Box:
Consumer credit grew 7.7%, or $15.5 billion, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.45 trillion in June, the Federal Reserve reported Friday.
The key is that in August 2007, the economy was 1 year from rolling over:
June’s consumer credit surge was triple the $5.08 billion increase posted in May and eclipsed forecasts by Wall Street economists for a $5-billion rise.
It was the biggest one-month gain in consumer credit in nearly four years, since a $17.29 billion jump in August 2007.
The Fed report sheds no light on whether consumers used credit out of need to pay bills or because they were motivated by optimism to spend more.
But other indicators, including government monthly retail sales data, suggested that consumers were wary about spending in June, so the big rise in consumer credit was a surprise.
#21 I saw a picture of a house (mls)the other day, Mc Mansion with a great room, massive brick fire place etc. The room had a couple of folding chairs, a LaZ-Boy recliner (which looked like they took it out of somebody elses garbage), and an old Sony Trinitron with walnut wood grain cabinetry sitting on a snack table.
Moynihan said all his new worth is in BAC stock. Who wants to wager his golden parachute is not?
net worth
also housing cheaper is only relevant to people starting out . I own my home so if someone offered me a job in the midwest for 100K less with explanation housing is less, what meaning does that have to me, zero. Even if I sold my house and put difference in bank with ZIRP in place how does that help? Plus by me starting teachers are young girls living at home for free. So it would be like leave my free place to stay so I can pay only $600 bucks a month rent and start teaching at $20K instead of $60K, hello housing costs is a zero issue for young single girls living at home, it is student loans and looking nice to meet a rich hubbie. You get the losers out there.
Interesting read on the Brits, seems the young ones feel angry and entitled.
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2011/08/10/2011-08-10_behind_englands_riots_a_violent_and_entitled_generation_of_british_young_people.html
And another thing that annoys me, is hoe come so many people today do not bring in their empty garbage cans after the trash is picked up; looks very sloppy.
JJ you give up in the trade up yet? Thought your wife was craving a granite island with an open floor plan, instead of a crappy cape with a galley kitchen?
#36
“I’m still waiting for someone to explain to me how nominal prices in our area will not be down another 20% in the next few years.”
#84
“and when this one doesn’t work, there’s always bulldozers and inflation. You aren’t going to get that nice house that you’ve been dreaming of at that 1999 price. They won’t let you.”
Great response: they won’t let you. Who’s they? because tptb have already let houses slide earlier than 1999 in most US. NY and environs are still 60% up so there’s lot of downside. In fact, the towns I am looking never had this inventory midaugust. A big part of this “impossible 20% off%” will happen this year and spring will be a bloodbath.
Unfortunately, in this economy and austerity where inflation is only on consumables and not income housing prices can only go further down as they remain UNAFFORDABLE. People were willing to risk a large part of their income because they believed houses can only go up and economy/job was stable. The present 25% discount from the peak does nothing. Owners/bulls are in denial.
Did BAC willingly buy Countrywide or did they “willingly” buy it like they “willingly” bought Merrill Lynch?
One more BAC observation – Wikileaks supposedly had a bunch of incriminating internal emails re BAC, whatever happened to those? What happens if they are released when BAC is near bankruptcy? Would that put them over the edge?
#31 They willingly bought Countrywide, and at the peak too!!!
[127] “Interesting read on the Brits, seems the young ones feel angry and entitled.”
I, for one, am glad that the youths here in the States do not feel angry or entitled.
Er, well, I am glad that we have the 2nd Amendment at least.
#27 It is the bad teeth that is finally getting to them.!!!
Always had a good time on trips to Britain. But it is really turning into a dump, every major city including London is just falling apart, and many parts of them resemble old Communist era cities in Russia/Eastern Europe. The cities (with the exception of some areas in London) are just plain ugly and dreary. The food for the most part is awful, and English football fans are insanely vicious.
Oh and I can’t forgive them for exporting the reality TV nonsense over here.
By the way I am told that the Police are now using plastic bullets on the rioters.
#27 Juice Oh and as you may know many of the English do not like being referred to as Brits; they only consider themselves to be English.
Go to many of the working class areas in the big cities, and it is the Cross of St. George flag they fly;not the union jack.
Countywide was all Ken Lewis doing they get to service 9 million additional loans and collect fees, no downside of putbacks lawsuits figured into Ken’s spreadsheet.Merrill was force fed by Paulson and Geithner.
Re: 136 – never seen so many fall down drunks and fat ugly tattooed women as I have in England. Nasty people with no hope perhaps they need to bring back religion or something.
Juice,
Not saying that isn’t the true story re Countrywide – but the extent of Merrill being shoved down BAC’s throat didn’t come to light until the investors lawsuit so there’s always the possibility of there being more of a story behind the story.
“also housing cheaper is only relevant to people starting out”
JJ,
You think it may be relevant to those who sucked out “equity”?
I’m not starting out, yet it is relevant to me.
[86] v23
” I started looking at properties in Mass and CT but now looking at homes in NH.”
If you want the lowdown on NH and Mass, give me a shout. I can tell you things the realtors either don’t know or are not allowed to, and won’t find on the internet.
Big money flowed into miners today. I hope this trend continues.
KPMG gave them a clean bill of health and the BAC stockholders swallowed it whole, there has been plenty of lawsuits over it.
“KPMG gave them a clean bill of health”:)
3b[135] that description sounds pretty close to most American cities. If you haven’t noticed america is literally falling apart.
BAC is going to get eaten alive by the pack of hyena’s groveling over its wretched, rotting corpse.
How was that meat?
KPMG – “These cancer cells look healthy – enjoy”
JJ: I am convinced there is no recession. It is a crisis of confidence not a crisis.
Sounds like all the country needs is a dose of a Julie Andrews show tune:
I have confidence in me.
I have confidence in sunshine,
I have confidence in rain.
I have confidence that spring will come again!
Besides, which you see
I have confidence in me.
Strength doesn’t lie in numbers.
Strength doesn’t lie in wealth,
Strength lies in nights of peaceful slumbers,
When you wake up, wake up! It’s healthy!
All I trust I leave my heart to,
All I trust becomes my own!
I have confidence in confidence alone.
I have confidence in confidence alone!
Besides, which you see,
I have confidence in me!
#45 It is different over there, the gloominess and dreariness of the cities is overwhelming, And there are a lot of American cities that are in far better shape both structurally and aesthetically than any British city.
[145] JCer
A long time ago, I told someone, if you want to see what America will become, look at England.
Kettle disagrees with me; he says took at Argentina. But Argentina dealt with things in a 3rd world way, while England didn’t. It just takes it and lives off its accumulated wealth.
So with respect to Kettle, whose views I respect, I think that the England you see today is the America you will see tomorrow. In fact, there aren’t a lot of differences now.
#38 Agreed, and bad teeth.And the women can drink many a man under the table. And I am talking beer and stout, and anything else; no sissy fruity drinks for those gals.
wife no longer wants it as I explained even in worse case we trade up and money is tight she can always go back to work, apparantly work was not in her vocab.
Juice Box says:
August 10, 2011 at 3:04 pm
JJ you give up in the trade up yet? Thought your wife was craving a granite island with an open floor plan, instead of a crappy cape with a galley kitchen?
There are loads of Brits living abroad, that never want to live there, infact right now I two sets of friends living here and are from England that we see regularly for play dates and drinking. Too bad the wives aren’t wife swap material. :)
149.
I was over in London in 2005. It is a terribly depressing place. I cant imagine it in the winter.
Between the militant Paki’s that seem to be everywhere and the natives who seem so downtrodden they dont even speak to eachother it is a nightmare.
It just sucks in England. Thought Ireland was much more charming.
So how does the Obama administration say with a straight face that its tax and regulatory policies won’t hurt small businesses?
Start by changing the definition of “small business.”
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/tax-policy/tax-analysis/Documents/OTA-T2011-04-Small-Business-Methodology-Aug-8-2011.pdf
Wow man that was some selling the last few minutes.
“I am convinced there is no recession. It is a crisis of confidence not a crisis.”
JJ,
Alan Schwartz stated that it was not a liquidity crisis just a crisis of confidence.
Call it what you may, the debt contagion is spreading like wild fire.
Ugly on the close.
And here’s another political prediction: If the dow breaks below 10K, Obama is done. The resulting recession is one he will not recover from. I don’t know if the Congress will flip one way or the other (awfully unpredictable that), but Obama will be a one-term president because this late in, he owns this economy.
Fabius, you always seem to have a counterpoint. Anything to add?
Nom, I am in agreement. America is Britain light, that is largely our future. I am not sure how it all plays out but most of the western world is as bad or worse than the US economically, I don’t know who gets spared? Maybe massive global reset? the eurozone is screwed and even the countries that are not treading water hold much of the debt of those that are.
He [156],
A ton of moc orders. Is that market on close or murder on close?
Lewis willing stepped up and bought ML in Sept 2008 with skeleton due diligence…..as they advanced toward the closing in the 4Q08, ML barfed up losses and Lewis wanted to back out……THEN the govt forced Lewis to close….can’t blame the govt…it was Lewis that played Joe Hardy to Paulson’s Mr. Applegate….
Juice Box says:
August 10, 2011 at 3:20 pm
Countywide was all Ken Lewis doing they get to service 9 million additional loans and collect fees, no downside of putbacks lawsuits figured into Ken’s spreadsheet.Merrill was force fed by Paulson and Geithner.
Had a lowball buy order for ConEd set up, and it triggered on the downdraft at the close.
Good div payments, low beta, moat around it. Another add to the kiddie’s camp/day care fund.
(I sell highly appreciated stock through their UTMA accounts, then use the money to pay for their camp, day care, etc. A lot of people think you have to leave it there for them to use when they turn 18 but that isn’t so–A custodian can withdraw it for their “use or benefit” so as long as you spend the money on them, it’s legit. And if they turn 18 and sue you, cut them out of the will).
willing = willingly
[159] JCer,
Either a massive global reset, or a country reset via other means, such as debauching the currency and devaluing everyone’s pensions and DC plans.
We know one or the other is certain. The question is how to invest against it. The obvious answer seems to be gold, but if there are others, then I am all ears.
Nom Rofl
http://www.theonion.com/articles/new-gop-strategy-involves-reelecting-obama-making,21113/
BC,
Just ugly.
[159] JCer
Canada and Aus/NZ are the largest western, developed countries that will be more or less spared. Additional benefit of being English speaking. I personally feel that Canadian immigration is up to their eyeballs in PR visa and citizenship requests from wealthy americans; this is demonstrated by their tightened standards for investor/entrepreneur visas. This was done either because the inflow was too much or because the Obama Administration leaned on them to curb it.
In Europe, putting aside a eurozone collapse effect, Norway does okay. German and the Netherlands are wild cards–they either weather nicely or get killed.
I put 20 low ball orders in at around 10:30am when the market was down 250. At 3:57 Boeing hit, and at 3:58 Coke hit.
My low ball list was JNJ, KO, PEP, CSCO, T, MET, NYB, DIS, MSFT, KFT, MCD, CBOE, BACPRH, C, AF, MRK, BA, WFC, AFL, PG, CMU, GE.
Some stocks such as C, WFC, BACPRE were extreme low balls. Boeing and Coke were not so low balls. Which is why they hit.
UTMA sounds good but I don’t spend any money on kids, no camps or day care. I am Irish, we just birth them. Maybe throw them a potato now and then and whats left in my pint.
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
August 10, 2011 at 4:16 pm
Had a lowball buy order for ConEd set up, and it triggered on the downdraft at the close.
Good div payments, low beta, moat around it. Another add to the kiddie’s camp/day care fund.
(I sell highly appreciated stock through their UTMA accounts, then use the money to pay for their camp, day care, etc. A lot of people think you have to leave it there for them to use when they turn 18 but that isn’t so–A custodian can withdraw it for their “use or benefit” so as long as you spend the money on them, it’s legit. And if they turn 18 and sue you, cut them out of the will).
[165] Juice
Not so far-fetched. Why do you think so many GOP probables said “not this year”? I have maintained since before the GOP won back the House that the GOP would enjoy its time in the wilderness because it gave Obama more time to run the economy into the ground and insure a GOP revival.
JJ,
Decent list, and I like the KO buy, but I would not touch financials right now. Jury is still out on them IMHO.
Don’t make fun of KPMG. They have the number one corporate theme song.
My financial buys were like crazy low and day limit orders. I hope to snag JNJ at a great price before the rebound, but it never hits my limit order price.
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
August 10, 2011 at 4:28 pm
JJ,
Decent list, and I like the KO buy, but I would not touch financials right now. Jury is still out on them IMHO.
Time to implement QE3 & QE4.
At least the FED has finally acknowledged that their sole purpose is supporting the Stock Market.
[173] Bob
“QE3 & QE4”
Hope & Change?
[172] JJ
I hear you, and I thought about crazy low lowballs, but I also figure that there’s time. They will come down.
I don’t know what you guys are all on about. The U.K. is a beautiful, vibrant country …
“I don’t know what you guys are all on about. The U.K. is a beautiful, vibrant country …”
You forgot flammable
[177]
Yes, there is something beatiful and vibrant about bad teeth, soccer hooligans, jellied eels, and warm beer.
Crazy. the overall value of my nonretirement stock portfolio actually went up today. Only by about 5 bucks, but hey, I’ll take it.
#77 It is a dump!!! Fun to visit, but a dump.Keeps up the way it is going every city will look like a scene out of Mad Max.
DJIA Index Components – Top Movers DOWN!
Symbol Price % Change
BAC 6.77 10.92%
DIS 31.54 9.11%
BA 57.41 7.28%
AXP 42.80 7.16%
UTX 67.44 5.77%
JPM 34.37 5.58%
GE 15.09 5.45%
HD 28.51 5.44%
MSFT 24.20 5.39%
MMM 78.23 5.39%
nom[159], I see Canada and Aus doing ok, but both will be effected by US collapse, NZ I believe has huge public debt which is a problem. I am not sure about the Netherlands, but Germany while it has a strong real economy is tied to the euro and holds a lot of Eurozone debt from countries that will be unable to pay. Currency debasement is Americas probable solution but it is not a real possibility in one currency continental europe. The Euro really screws the economically stable countries in Europe and any members being kicked out only tells me they aren’t paying back euro denominated debt. The euro was an unbelievably bad idea in retrospect.
374 I guess the Fed dosen’t not understand you cannot have an economy built just on the stock market!!!
From Bad to Worse? Realtors Assess the Market
The recent barrage of awful news from Wall Street has sent a current of barely concealed panic through anyone involved in the housing market. Things were bad enough; now, the possibility of a double-dip recession has buyers and sellers alike wondering what will happen next.
Baristanet surveyed local realtors to find out what they were seeing out there. Do buyers seem more reluctant than ever to take the plunge? Are sellers feeling stuck in their homes for the foreseeable future? Here’s what they had to say:
Roberta Baldwin, The New Keller Williams NJ Metro Group, Montclair: Sellers with homes on the market that aren’t selling take it very personally, but it’s our job to remind them that they are part of a larger phenomenon. We are in an uncertain economic environment that is not likely to end soon and is bigger than all of us.
Three years ago, some said the recessionary jag would be over by now. How long can homeowners hold onto properties they can’t afford? It’s brutal to tell people their homes are worth so much less than before, but if you show them that it’s cheaper to sell now, rather than pay five more years of property taxes and home maintenance, they often see the big picture.
http://www.baristanet.com/2011/08/from-bad-to-worse-realtors-assess-the-market/
Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:
August 10, 2011 at 4:01 pm
Wow man that was some selling the last few minutes
Here is who is responsible…..the best part is 1:20 where the pants are hiked up…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we6mrCmT4O4
3b re: no furniture — I’d bet that the owners have already moved out of many of these houses and are too cheap to pay for staging. I don’t know what’s wrong with the realtors in this area; they bring their cell phone cameras and that’s the photos they take. No one wants to see photos of other people’s overstuffed closets and piles of kids’ toys. This house has been on the market forever:
http://www.trulia.com/property/1082505595-Single-Family-Home-Washington-Township-NJ-07676
…why would you want to judge a three-quarters-of-a-million dollar house based on someone’s hand laundry and their dirty, unfinished basement?
“It’s brutal to tell people their homes are worth so much less than before”
Especially after you convinced them, in 2006, to buy now or be priced out forever.
“Especially after you convinced them, in 2006, to buy now or be priced out forever.”
You implying realtors have a conscience?
If all these shenanigans at Countrywide occured under Mozilla how is he still walking around a free man?
BC [173];
Time to implement QE3 & QE4.
I just call it QE∞. Makes it easier because you don’t have to keep changing the numbers. And like Rocky or Jason movies, once you get past 3 does the number even matter any more? Everyone knows what they’re getting, not like it will be demonstrably diffrent than what came before or after.
How about we split the difference and get one of those 7-segment displays like the lottery billboards so we can at least make changing the number easier? You know, if we do that we’d better make it more than one digit…
HEHE [189];
You implying realtors have a conscience?
“Hey Meat! Here’s another for your hit list!”
Simmer down folks. UST says we’re ok. Can’t believe the nationally sponsored unicorn breeding program didn’t make to top 10.
1. The US is the largest and most productive economy in the world.
2. The US remains a global leader in manufactured goods.
3. The US is the largest exporter of goods and services in the world.
4. The US remains the world’s favorite destination for foreign direct investment.
5. America is home to the world’s top global brands.
6. The US remains the world’s technology leader.
7. The top ranked universities in the world are in the US.
8. The US dollar is still the world’s top reserve currency.
9. The US military is a significant resource for technological innovation.
10. The US ranks No. 4 in global competitiveness.
“…..the response to France disintegrating apparently becoming one of the PIIGS which is now the FPIIGS” Jeff Macke… LOL!
[185] “It’s brutal to tell people their homes are worth so much less than before, but if you show them that it’s cheaper to sell now, rather than pay five more years of property taxes and home maintenance, they often see the big picture.”
What’s that I hear? Oh, yeah.
Tick … tick … tick … tick
Some other choice nuggets of real estate agent wisdom from that baristanet article:
Vanessa Pollock, Keller Williams, Maplewood: I tell sellers the one thing they can control in this market is to make sure their house shows beautifully. (pssst, Vanessa, you might want to tell sellers that they also control the asking price, just a thought.)
If I were to describe the current market in two words, I would say exciting and challenging. (I would say “death stench” but that’s just because I’ve been paying too much attention.)
Mark Slade, Keller Williams, Maplewood: A third of the homes in the area continue to sell for last asking price or greater. (And, that’s after how many reductions in the asking price, Mark?)
Barbara Lawrence, Keller Williams, Maplewood: Long-term effects will no doubt cause a rise in mortgage rates, which may or may not create more reluctance in sellers to sell now or hold off. (Thanks for clarifying that, Babs)
Tina Erway, Coldwell Banker, Maplewood: I personally have not seen a lot of changes because of the recent Wall Street uncertainty. I am working with several buyers waiting to close and I had an offer on one of my listings just three days ago … (Please give us some of whatever you’ve been smoking, Tina.)
Robin Seidon, Keller Williams NJ Metro Group, Montclair: The uncertainty of the past few days has to be affecting everyone’s confidence – but there’s never been a better time to buy. (Brilliant, Robin! Just when I thought I was going to suffer the strange fate of reading an interview with real estate agents without hearing this phrase. Never been a better time to buy, no, indeed.)
195.
lolz on your commentary.
“FPIIGS”
Chi,
Classic.
Larry Kudlow, telling us to calm down again. This (according to Larry K) is not repeat not the start of another recession. So calm down.
3b, didn’t he tell us that yesterday!?
Anyone catch the Jamie Dimon interview on CNBC this morning (shortly after the Santelli/Whitney incident)? What a dolt. In one breathe he comments on how Microsoft must hire workers from Vancouver because the talent cannot be found in Seattle. Then withing 15 seconds he rambles on in an incoherent mumble how we have the worlds best universities. Seems like he hasn’t a clue.
Coming soon to your town?
http://www.city-journal.org/2011/eon0810td.html
British Degeneracy on Parade
The riots should surprise no one who’s been paying attention.
10 August 2011
The ferocious criminality exhibited by an uncomfortably large section of the English population during the current riots has not surprised me in the least. I have been writing about it, in its slightly less acute manifestations, for the past 20 years. To have spotted it required no great perspicacity on my part; rather, it took a peculiar cowardly blindness, one regularly displayed by the British intelligentsia and political class, not to see it and not to realize its significance. There is nothing that an intellectual less likes to change than his mind, or a politician his policy.
Three men were run over and killed as they tried to protect their property in the very area of Birmingham in which I used to work, and through which I walked daily; the large town that I live near when I’m in England has also seen rioting. Only someone who never looked around him and never drew any conclusions from the faces and manner of the young men he saw would have been surprised.
The riots are the apotheosis of the welfare state and popular culture in their British form. A population thinks (because it has often been told so by intellectuals and the political class) that it is entitled to a high standard of consumption, irrespective of its personal efforts; and therefore it regards the fact that it does not receive that high standard, by comparison with the rest of society, as a sign of injustice. It believes itself deprived (because it has often been told so by intellectuals and the political class), even though each member of it has received an education costing $80,000, toward which neither he nor—quite likely—any member of his family has made much of a contribution; indeed, he may well have lived his entire life at others’ expense, such that every mouthful of food he has ever eaten, every shirt he has ever worn, every television he has ever watched, has been provided by others. Even if he were to recognize this, he would not be grateful, for dependency does not promote gratitude. On the contrary, he would simply feel that the subventions were not sufficient to allow him to live as he would have liked.
At the same time, his expensive education will have equipped him for nothing. His labor, even supposing that he were inclined to work, would not be worth its cost to any employer—partly because of the social charges necessary to keep others such as he in a state of permanent idleness, and partly because of his own characteristics. And so unskilled labor is performed in England by foreigners, while an indigenous class of permanently unemployed is subsidized.
The culture of the person in this situation is not such as to elevate his behavior. One in which the late Amy Winehouse—the vulgar, semicriminal drug addict and alcoholic singer of songs whose lyrics effectively celebrated the most degenerate kind of life imaginable—could be raised to the status of heroine is not one that is likely to protect against bad behavior.
Finally, long experience of impunity has taught the rioters that they have nothing to fear from the law, which in England has become almost comically lax—except, that is, for the victims of crime. For the rioters, crime has become the default setting of their behavior; the surprising thing about the riots is not that they have occurred, but that they did not occur sooner and did not become chronic.
Theodore Dalrymple, a physician, is a contributing editor of City Journal and the Dietrich Weismann Fellow at the Manhattan Institute.
#201 Check out his book “Life At the Bottom” published in 2001.
In other news, the CME just hiked gold margins
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cme-hikes-gold-margins-but-prices-still-rising-2011-08-10
AW [201],
As England is engulfed in flames, the smoke is rising in all western welfare nations.
OOS [202],
A 1,400 hike is only [approx] .75 of the value of the contract. They better keep hiking.
BC – Yes and it is a little scary. A flash mob in Chicago a few weeks ago and another at the Wisconsin State Fair. Senseless.
[203] “As England is engulfed in flames, the smoke is rising in all western welfare nations.”*
*Except for Brigadoon-on-Hackensack, where unicorns promptly p!ss on any flames lit by meddling outsiders; the only thing rising in Brigadoon-on-Hackensack are year-over-year prices … up 26% as of last tally, baby!
Pipe down all of you, it’s contained to subprime! A realtor swigging Aqua Crematoria from a paper cup, snorting one-ons on Grafton Avenue told me so just this past week.
“It’s brutal to tell people their homes are worth so much less than before, but if you show them that it’s cheaper to sell now, rather than pay five more years of property taxes and home maintenance, they often see the big picture.”
Perhaps my 20% nominal drop is too conservative. I was trying to be a little compassionate. meh.
Hey Nom,
I found a nompound candidate from Summerville, NJ.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7JnClHTCUQ&feature=player_embedded
No person or organization, including the federal government, has been able to help support the housing market, although the Administration has tried. Not a single plan has built even a thin net under home values, despite the best efforts of the best economic minds in the world.
These are the seasons of emotion and like the winds they rise and fall
This is the wonder of devotion – I seek the torch we all must hold.
This is the mystery of the quotient – Upon us all a little rain must fall…It’s just a little rain…
Great example of a news network attempting to create some news today. I had CNN on this afternoon. London riots, of course, then nearly 40 minuted dedicated to an police beating resulting in the murder of a homeless young man with mental problems. He was no resisting arrest according to the video taken by bystanders and their eye witness accounts. Anyway, this went on and on with the anchor using as much melodrama in both her words and inflection while interviewing reporters, experts, bystanders, etc. Then over and over they flashed the deceased’s picture. It was grizzly, and it came again and again with no warning, in the afternoon. I have never seen that. I think a US riot would really bring in the ratings, don’t you?
Oh, sorry forgot to mention that it was a police beating in California.
Public school curriculum, circa 2018:
http://www.ehow.com/how_2043725_trap-squirrel.html
I think a US riot would really bring in the ratings, don’t you?
CBS is currently working on a reality pilot series. :o
Gary
“No person or organization, including the federal government, has been able to help support the housing market, although the Administration has tried. Not a single plan has built even a thin net under home values, despite the best efforts of the best economic minds in the world.”
Not true, it worked here in NJ. If it truly didn’t work, you could buy a 5 bedroom 3 bath fixer with great potential on a beautiful street in Planet Clair for under 250k. As it stands, you can’t. Its worked like a charm. Next is bulldozers, then inflation will take care of the rest. If things go all Mad Max, your fat mortgage will be the least of your worries or anyone elses. This is a very smart blog with smart people saying smart things, but its great flaw is that it doesn’t take its insights or projections to their logical conclusions.
#215 Barbara: If it worked here, than prices would not be down in the 20% range in even the so called most desireable blue ribbony Bergen Co towns. It is not working here, it may not be as obvious as Vegas, or Phoenix, or Miami, but it is not working here either, it is just taking longer to play out.
“Just curious, do you think gold is in a bubble present day or in the future? Also, do you base your analysis on prices or participation rate?”
BC, I still owe you a few beers for helping to convince me to hold as much gold as I do, whether you meant to or not. Im 100% convinced that gold is bubble and will be for another year or three. Bubbles aren’t totally bogus, they happen for good reason. Just as tech bubble was based on real innovation breakthroughs and housing bubble based on artificially low and easy access to financing, gold is real in the sense that sovereign debt is really trashing fiat currencies. The bubbly exuberance comes in when that exuberance takes on a momentum all its own and totally disconnect from reasonable scenarios, which I believe is where gold will eventually go.
“it is just taking longer to play out.”
that’s why it is working….
#06 Glad to see you understand. You are most welcome in Brigadoon-on Hackensack.
#218 But in the end it is not. IMO the longer it plays out the uglier the end result will be.
#99 Day before.
I’m buying all my gold from The Franklin Mint because I want to score in both the gold market AND the white hot gold plated Garfield figurines market. That’s my hedge. Suckers!
#158 Nom,
I made the re-election call back in 2008 along with the prediction that the GOP next credible chance for the WH is 2020.
Who are these GOP probables that are sitting out? Last time I looked the only GOP memebers with a chance of winning were moderates and they were last seen hiding from the Tea party, down by the reflecting pool, throwing skittles at the Unicorns.
…to clarify my opinion, the fact that home prices were justified to increase based on low rates and easy credit somehow morphed into a rediculous frenzy that ‘we’re running out of land’. Similarly, golds safety trade status and historical use to support currencies justifies a sustained increase in value but will eventually turn into ‘gold is money’ and therefore must climb to infiniti. Meanwhile, my bubble radar is asking Ok, well if it was always money why did it go down in first place?
Yep the garfield and heathcliff bubbles were memorable.
When US universities start closing their doors in a couple years, how do you think the property will be redeveloped? Also, just before university closures become widespread, who will make the claim “It’s contained to junior colleges.”?
http://www.popecenter.org/news/article.html?id=2511
You can read or not read the article, but pay close attention to the second chart. Does it look quite a bit like the “breakout” in historic percentage of “homeowners” we saw not too many years ago?
tick, tick, tick
227. although I do believe that the higher ed bubble is real, I do not find these charts compelling. What would possibly be more compelling is a chart showing the rise in HE costs compared to % of either parent’s income or predicted future income of graduates.
[215] “Next is bulldozers, then inflation will take care of the rest.”
Well, I agree the government is trying to stop the continued plunge in the housing market, I just don’t agree that it has (or will) be successful. Not even around here.
If inflation takes care of the rest, well, my income will be inflating along with everything else. And if not, i.e. if we get stagflation where inflation drives up the price of housing (or keeps it artificially high) while everything else stagnates, then I will just repeat what I think Gary often says …
Sell? Sell to whom?
If you really think that the government is capable of bulldozing away the housing collapse, I think that is unrealistic. Time will tell.
[226] “When US universities start closing their doors in a couple years, how do you think the property will be redeveloped?”
The properties will be bulldozed and littered with nuclear waste to prop up tuition at the remaining universities, of course.
#201 A West
I disagree with the article. I read the bio of the author and it doesn’t suprise me why. and a lot of the the author and the publication. The reasons would take more of a post, i’ll happily table it for a GTG.
An English Koch-head, now that IS a rarity.
Moose-
Why don’t you go douche, you tired old queen? I can smell your rancid quim through the internet. And it smells like ass.
And after you douche, stick a .357 in your mouth and pull the trigger, you worthless piece of crap.
Feeling the love on NJREREPORT tonight.
moose (120)-
Man up, and leave already. You can be a professional asshole anywhere.
“NJ can rot for all I care. I’m shackled to this area by work. This geography is like a stain on my my resume — enough interest locally, but I can’t get the time of day outside the tri-state area.”
Al (146)-
Pure poetry, pal. You should give us a few couplets on the subject of Satan’s offspring, Dimon.
NE – in regards to gold and bubble talk, do take into account that very very few people in this country own gold/silver bullion (possess it). Probably less than 1% of the chinese population owns it. We know how much comes out of the ground every year, what happens when that 1% turns into 10%? I have no numbers atm to back this up, but the word “bubble” I don’t think should be on the table yet.
Only thing good about England is the EPL.
Most of England is just degenerate inbreeds with bad teeth and Pakis.
England = Alabama
3b (198)-
Nothing like being told to calm down by a cokehead.
babs (211)-
Look what Rodney King brought to daytime TV news.
Bearsfan, the average american family owning 10% of their wealth in physical gold will be the equivalent of 75% of americans owning homes in 2006.
[200] Mocha
” In one breathe he comments on how Microsoft must hire workers from Vancouver because the talent cannot be found in Seattle. Then withing 15 seconds he rambles on in an incoherent mumble how we have the worlds best universities. Seems like he hasn’t a clue.”
Were you actually listening? Dimon discussed how MS was hiring workers in Vancouver because MS could not legally employ them in the U.S. He argued that US universities were training foreigners but not letting them work here. Hence, MS’ facility in Vancouver.
Holy crap, I just reread my posts. My typos are awful. I blame Rutgers.
Babs (215)-
I do. And, everyone else here (for the most part) thinks I’m nuts for doing so. This whole sorry episode of Amerikan history ends in tears and blood.
I’ve been on a three-year streak of some pretty good calls, and I don’t really need to pull any punches now. I feel like the start of the EPL season- married to the daily English riots- is just reward for my unflagging belief that when faced with the ultimate challenge, today’s homo sapiens will both fail miserably and exacerbate an already-bad situation.
“This is a very smart blog with smart people saying smart things, but its great flaw is that it doesn’t take its insights or projections to their logical conclusions.”
To substantially improve the RE market they need to bulldoze 10MM houses or so. While on the surface it is doable (govt to buy the foreclosed stuff in bulk at say $50 K a piece – will take only $500B which is a totally puny number v. budget problems), very unlikely to happen.
Looks like GOP is following TheOnion’s recipe:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/61684192/Rick-Perry-s-Texas-A-M-Transcript
Meat,
You do go there. True.
It’s gonna be a tough day when TPTB realizes it’s easier and cheaper to set up 100mm people to get offed in a war than to bulldoze 10mm houses on spec that it might put a floor under nominal prices.
Why dedicate hundreds of bulldozers to do what a handful of tactical nuclear devices can do so much better and cleaner?
238. I’ve been to London three times. On the first visit there I had a gun pulled on me outside the Hippodrome. It really spiced up the trip as I thought they didn’t have guns in the UK.
During the last visit (summer 2005), I experienced the hysteria around the Pakis suicide bombings.
I’d go back again. The element of danger has a strange appeal.
Meat, why do your posts have so much more clarity when the stock market is in the midst of collapse?
The state of collapse is the true state of our current state.
Think how much of a relief it will be when we can all hate Oriental people in unison again.
236.
Well articulated Bear,
Sometimes the anger boils up in me when I hear this bubble talk therefore I refrain from commenting. The angering part is that people still dont get it and perhaps are too lazy to figure it out. People are going to get absolutely crushed and yet they refuse to listen to the alarm bell.
veets (251)-
I’m short.
veets (251)-
I have a vindictive streak.
veets (251)-
I like watching shit burn.
Also keep in mind govt would ban gold again well before allowing each family to hoard 10% of their wealth in it.
258,
In 1933 only 10% gave up their goods. Most of them Italian immigrants who were told it was unpatriotic not to.
NE – 242 – I agree, if 10% of avg americans wealth was in gold bullion, that would be serious bubble time. I do not think we are even near this in any way, shape or form. I can count on one hand everyone I know that owns any bullion, and they are in silver, and small amounts. A couple just started dipping their toes in the ATB 5 OZs.
– 258 – I have read a lot of positions )mainly from bugs though) that suggest confiscation would be very unlikely. I would think they would more likely tax the shit out of any sale and force you to produce your base. We’d def be at Meat’s logical conclusion point if gold/silver ever confiscated I think.
– Meat, I do not think you are nuts, and look forward to your posts more than JJ’s, lol.
Also, getting caught resulted in huge fines and prison time, federal offense.
Somehow, willingly putting yourself or your kids in front of an advancing, ravenous war machine always gets painted as being “patriotic”.
There would be a lot of “boating accidents” in that scenario…yup, it’s all at the bottom of the ocean sir.
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The next bubble is in commodities.