June Home Prices – Signs of Recovery or Crap?

From Bloomberg:

Home Prices in U.S. Showed Signs of Stabilizing

Residential real estate prices in the U.S. decreased in the year ended in June at a slower pace than in the prior month, a sign the market may be stabilizing.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 4.5 percent from June 2010, after a 4.6 percent drop in the 12 months ended May that was the biggest since 2009, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 4.6 percent decline.

Values fell by 0.1 percent in June from the prior month after adjusted for seasonal changes, matching the decrease in May, indicating the deterioration is slowing. Nonetheless, any recovery in home values is probably years away as foreclosures dump more properties onto to the market, while a jobless rate hovering around 9 percent and strict lending rules hurt sales.

“Prices aren’t going to rebound back rapidly,” said Paul Dales, a senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in Toronto. “Most people think that when the downturn ends the recovery will be pretty good, but that’s not going to be the case at all.”

From the NY Times:

Home Prices In June Tally Showed Gain

Spring buying pushed home prices up for a third consecutive month in most major American cities in June, a private report showed. But the housing market remained shaky, and further price declines were expected this year.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index said prices increased in June from May in 19 of the 20 cities tracked. Prices rose 3.6 percent in the April-June quarter from the previous quarter. Neither of those numbers is adjusted for seasonal factors. Over the last 12 months, home prices have declined in all 20 cities.

Chicago, Minneapolis, Washington and Boston posted the biggest monthly increases. Metro areas hit hardest by the housing crisis, including Las Vegas and Phoenix, reported small increases.

Analysts say home prices have stabilized in coastal cities over the last six months. Seasonally adjusted prices have fallen a modest 1 percent in the last six months, according to the index. That is less than a third of the decline from the previous six months.

Home prices are certain to fall further once banks resume foreclosures, millions of which have been delayed because of a government investigation into mortgage lending practices. If the American economy slips back into another recession, prices could drop even further.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

89 Responses to June Home Prices – Signs of Recovery or Crap?

  1. funnelcloud says:

    Crap!

  2. grim says:

    From the Philly Inquirer:

    Housing prices rebound, but maybe just temporarily

    Home prices in the second quarter rose 3.6 percent nationally after falling 4.1 percent in the first three months of 2011, according to the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday.

    Still, the national numbers showed prices 5.9 percent lower than in the second quarter of 2010, the final months of the federal home buyers’ tax credit.

    Economists had assumed there would be an uptick in prices in the cities in the index because the three months tracked – April, May, and June – are normally peak home-buying months.

    They were not disappointed, but they did not appear to believe this to be a sustainable upward trend in prices.

    “A seasonal kick accounts for the recent strength in the indexes,” which saw a 1.1 percent increase in June over May, said economist Patrick Newport of IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Mass.

    “This kick will wear off in the fall, when demand weakens and sellers have to give way on price, and prices will start dropping again,” Newport said.

    Although prices in 19 of the 20 metropolitan statistical areas covered in the survey – Philadelphia is not one of them – were up in June compared with May, their composite index was down 4.5 percent from June 2010.

    That composite index has leveled off, Newport said.

    “The big question is whether prices have hit bottom,” he said, referring to the industry collapse that began nearly four years ago. “Our view is that foreclosures, excess supply, and weak demand will drive prices down another five to 10 percent.”

  3. jamil says:

    re #97 in open discussion thread:
    obviously, this wasn’t from me. it looks like the fake poster using my handle was fabius, who gets kick out of that.

  4. jamil says:

    Fabius, I haven’t lost my job and I don’t need a visa to work here and maybe you should just a shut up while clinging to your hero. Btw, that 2 weeks is a myth.

    fabius the fake poster:
    #97 Jamil,
    I was a bit worried about you there. I thought you had “done a Pret” and had lost your job and your H1B meant you had 2 weeks to get out of the country.
    Now we have have a twist here with unlike your last picjs we actually have a NY Dem with a Se x scandal. Are you going to double down here and say that this safe (D) seat will go (R) just like those safe upstate seats swung to the other side?

  5. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  6. Mike says:

    Factor in the flooded properties and it gets crappier

  7. jamil says:

    OK, so I wasn’t exactly telling the truth. I will be deported in two weeks but I’ll still have internet connection, so I’ll be able to post here from the homeland. Thank the Gods for the internet.

  8. Confused in NJ says:

    They are starting to hype Hurrican Katia. If that sucker hits you can write off most of NJ.

  9. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    From Mish:

    First Time Foreclosure Starts Near 3-Year Lows, However Bad News Overwhelms; Foreclosure Pipeline in NY is 693 months and 621 Months in NJ

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/first-time-foreclosure-starts-near-3.html

    That’s a bit of an overhang

  10. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Region’s home prices in June decline a year earlier

    Home prices in the New York metropolitan area, including North Jersey, were down 3.6 percent in June compared with a year earlier, the Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller home-price index reported on Tuesday. Prices in the region rose 0.9 percent from May. Nationally, June prices slipped 4.5 percent from a year earlier and gained 1.1 percent from May.

    Spring buying pushed home prices up for a third straight month in most major U.S. cities in June. But the housing market remains shaky and further price declines are forecast this year.

    The median price of a single-family home in Bergen County was $419,500 in June 2011, down 6.8 percent from a year earlier. The number of sales dropped 22.5 percent, probably reflecting the fact that sales were artificially inflated in 2010 by an $8,000 federal tax credit for home buyers.

    In Passaic County, home prices slid 17 percent, to a median $237,675, while the number of sales plunged by almost half.

    These numbers are from the New Jersey and Garden State multiple listing services, and reflect the mix of properties sold. So if a number of lower-priced homes are sold in a given month, that will reduce the median price.

  11. nj escapee says:

    Confused, watched Miami news last night and weather guy thinks it will continue north and not touch USA due to high pressure off the east coast but could impact Bermuda .

  12. fabius says:

    mom lets me be alone in the basement today

  13. gary says:

    I’m starting to see a 5 handle that was previously a 6 handle on those “need to have” houses in Upper Haughtyville. I’m still waiting to hear the reasons why we’re not going to see a 20% nominal drop from current levels by 2013.

    Tick… tick… tick… tick…

  14. grim says:

    11 – Way too early to tell, but agree that some current models are showing it turning to the north much too early to be a risk to the northeast.

  15. grim says:

    HOV is still building, looks like they’ll take the whole mountain down.

  16. joyce says:

    How many articles have been written in the past 4-5 years saying to the effect, ‘Housing appears to be stabilizing?’

  17. Orion says:

    Irene

    Finally got power at home last night, in Western Monmouth. No electric since Saturday night. Flooded basement. Blah-blah-blah.

    Beach house in Asbury never lost power. No blinking clocks. Dry basement. But, lost living room ceiling and other areas of water damage. New paint job down the shitter. All in all, I consider myself blessed.

  18. grim says:

    18 – New house, basement dry, block walls dry, property drained well, gutters worked perfectly. I’d call all the work on the outside a success.

    Chimney flashing leaked.

    Screw me

    No real damage though, water basically rode the masonry chimney down and made a mess, I really can’t complain.

  19. Libtard in Union says:

    Jamil: Don’t be so full of yourself. We knew it wasn’t you the moment the post didn’t contain any hacky, recycled, anti-democrat info from the Drudge Report.

    Still_Looking: I called 7 stucco people around noon yesterday. Two of which were really handymen. Of the 7, I received 2 calls back. The first said he doesn’t do stucco outside (lawsuits?). The second was a French handyman that my buying agent recommended from Rutherford. For two normal sized windows and where the old vent was, he estimated $650 stucco (2 coats of course) and paint to match. Seems fair enough to me with nothing to compare it to. The work must be done by 9/15, otherwise the rate lock expires on the refi. I only hope the guy does not decide to picket outside my home.

  20. Libtard in Union says:

    Grim (19): Congrats on the relatively dry home. I went over to the FEMA money grubbing neighbor’s home yesterday to survey the damage. First of all, his house is a dump. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised as he has 4 cars for him and his wife. Well, I took a look at his basement and it appears that the soil under his basement floor is washing away. Best of all, the cement on his floor is no more than 1/2″ thick and that is pushing it even. When he went down to pump some water out during the storm, he left giant holes in the concrete veneer floor. What a mess. I’ll let you know how his attempts to fleece the tax base goes. He’s a nice guy and all and he’s really generous, but talk about entitlement. Whoowah!

    I finished bleaching the basement floor and walls yesterday and I think we are back in business without any damage whatsoever.

  21. NJCoast says:

    Finally got power at 10PM last night (coastal Monmouth County). Still no phone, internet and TV. I told Fios that Cablevision is up and running and they said they’ll be right over.

  22. grim says:

    We installed an impromptu sump at our place in Clifton on Sunday, mostly because it’s a pain to try to deal with an inch or two of water. Impact hammer, chisel, buckets = sump!

  23. JJ says:

    HOV is like HIV

  24. Juice Box says:

    re: Shadow inventory foreclosure pipeline in NY is 693 months and 621 Months in NJ.
    Shadow Inventory was 9 years worth of inventory and now it is 51 years in NJ?

    So what % of these squatters are even bothering to fix damage from the Hurricane? How many of them are even cleaning out the gutters before a storm?

  25. JC says:

    Today I am calling my electrician and seeing about getting a generator that will power the panel directly. Turn off all circuits except furnace, fridge, water heater, and sump pump. I can deal with that.

  26. Juice Box says:

    re # 26 – Yeah bullish on generators. Seems everyone I spoke to who lost power was going through Internet/Facebook withdraws.

    7kw for $1,799 just be sure to put it up on a platform.

    http://www.homedepot.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?langId=-1&storeId=10051&catalogId=10053&R=100661779&catEntryId=100661779

  27. Pat says:

    The chimney flashing thing is a pain, in particular if you can’t find the leak.

    Our landlord has sent his guy over to check our roof about 10 times in the past 3 years. Whenever it rains more than a shower, we get ping drips on the ducts. The water never hits any ceiling. We don’t know where it’s ending up but we can hear the ping, ping, pa-ping-ping-pang drips echoing in certain upstairs rooms. It reminds me of a certain Bruce intro.

    I kind of like it in the same way I enjoyed being in the office on the 5th floor during the earthquake. It’s sensory and cool temporarily as long as nobody gets hurt.

  28. grim says:

    Flashing was caulked years back, looks like it has dried out and is crumbling. Doesn’t need new flashing, just to be re-sealed. We had planned to redo the roof and soffits, so we really didn’t pay much attention since there were no overt signs of problems.

    Fix should only take a few minutes, one of those things that you just kick yourself for when you see it in the rear-view.

  29. yo'me says:

    I think Sastry bought a house in Bound Brook.I wonder how he did with the storm?

  30. JJ says:

    Always wonder why everyone in NJ are such Nancy Boys, reading paper today out in Long Beach Long Island the US Surfing Championships start tommorrow. US Open is in full trottle, LIRR has service completely restored. People in NJ who live miles from water get a little water in basement and NJ transist gets a branch on the line and you were paralized.

    Chris Christie is a super nancy boy. Orders no drinking in Hoboken at 8pm on Saturday, meanwhile the Grillfire Bar in Long Beach Long Island was advertising Huricanne specials for the bar for Saturday night. I see the folks on the Long Beach Boardwalk dancing in the rain on Sunday and people in NJ crying five days later cause a couple of ounces of water landed in their blue ribbon basements.

  31. make money says:

    People piss me off with their stupidity.

    I have a car wash owner who poses like a friend that guttered his house and put in top of the line kitchens and baths, doors, hardwood floors, venetian plaster paint, and exquisite custom design firniture to fit his home,15K designer curtains…but didn’t change an old beat down roof. Water came in through his skylights and ruined his entire home. Then power went off and his sump pumps didn’t work so his basement had over 4 ft of water. He’s all twisted saying he has the worst luck as his insurance company won’t pay for premium junk that he put in and they will only replace with standard stuff.

    I told him that he is a moron and has no one to balme but himself. Instead of spending over 200K decorating his home he should have put in a new roof and invested 5K in a generator so that his finished basement doesn’t flood. Had he done this then Irene would not have efected him. His wife realized that designer curtains are not more important then a generator that powers your home and hooks to your gas line.

    People are more concered with decorating their homes than protecting them.

  32. JJ says:

    Make Money, I have two going out of business Seaman couches in basement, coffee table from a tag sale in 1986, end table from a 1990 Levitz sale, one cracked lamped, paneling from 1960s covered in 1970s sanitest, a cracked popcorn ceiling and mica built in cabinets from 1991 the prior owned put in that are tacky with industrial strength ten year old berber carpet and a 55 year old funrance plus blinds from national whole sale liquidators.

    I live in an area where we get water in the lower level den/basement every 3-5 years. A 5k Generator, expensive sump pump is not answer, the answer is to not spend money renovating a part of house that floods. If I get a big flood that every takes out lower level I most likely will get no insurance money and if I did I would cash check and do a cheapo renovation.

  33. Pat says:

    Speaking of cleaning up, I’m searching for what might be a re-branded product.

    It completely cleaned stains like red wine from carpet upon contact. That was its most impressive use.

    About ten years ago, it was attached to Me@n Gr33n and sold as a two-fer at Family Dollar. Clear liquid in spray bottle.

    Anybody ever remember that, know what it was or the main ingredient, etc?

  34. Juice Box says:

    JJ keeps his basement ugly and moldy so nobody will go down there to watch TV but him. It’s his man cave, I bet he was sitting in 3 inches of water watching the Jets v Giants game.

  35. make money says:

    JJ,

    Friends home value today is around a million. He owned his home for 15 years. Basement never flooded. Has a game room, bar and full theater down there. Unlike you he likes nice things. Problem is he doesn’t invest money in “protecting” them.

  36. Libtard in Union says:

    Pat:
    Oxy 10? Didi Seven? Simple Green? Slap Chop?

  37. Just Toast says:

    Pat – wine stains:

    http://www.gonzocorp.com/Browse-Products/Wine-Stain

    JC – Honda I believe used to have a 5 position transfer switch so you could rotate routing electricity to the most critical systems in your home without having to purchase a whole house generator. I have been told multiple times that Honda products generate the cleanest electric current and thus, won’t harm the products you are powering. Not being an electrical engineer, cannot comment on the validity but most Honda products are a cut above.

  38. Pat says:

    Thanks Tard and Toast.

    I was looking for this other stuff but maybe it was toxic or something and the company had to discontinue. That’s the only thing I can think of – or it was so effective that the competition paid them to stop bottling it.

    What happened was we…O.K. my husband…sanded and thompsoned the back deck. The sealer never really dried and there’s now a new look and feel to our living room carpeting.

  39. Captain Foresight HEHEHE says:

    Check it out – the US has an antitrust law

    U.S. files to block AT&T deal for T-Mobile USA

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-files-to-block-ATT-rb-1867304945.html?x=0

    How much in campaign contributions to the O-man’s re-election capaign will it take for this one to go away?

  40. Just Toast says:

    Try Cabot vs Thompson. Much better deck sealer.

  41. JJ says:

    A home is a bad investment, returns on home remodeling project at best bring back 50 cents on a dollar and over time nothing. When I go to the best neighborhoods I rarely see them putting money into homes.

    BTW I had a crazy strategy for grieving taxes this year. Form said if you are by a double yellow line, Large Power Lines, Smoke Stacks or Commerical Business that the assessor is not aware of you can get your taxes lower.

    So I went to big yellow looked up all businesses with an address within a block of me and found like 3-4 ilegal home business, took pictures, printed out their mantra profile, business incorporations, ads on internet for business. Then took a map showing proximity to my house and got a big reduction in taxes. As Charlie Sheen says win win. If I have annoying neighbors saving a buck or two running home businesses I should save a buck or two also.

    You all should try it.

  42. Libtard in Union says:

    JJ (44):

    “Commerical Business that the assessor is not aware of you can get your taxes lower. ”

    I simply don’t believe you.

  43. JJ says:

    I thought the same thing, so to make sure they were aware of them a few weeks earlier I filed zoning violations on homes and complained to assessor office that they were taxed incorrectly at residential rate. Funniest was one business the guy went up and down the block banging on doors wanted to know what neighbor ratted him out. As if the neighbor would confess. Neighbor actually complained since he had arguments and issues with multiple neighbors over years he has too many suspects to figure out who did it.

    Zoning Complaints require a real name, phone number and an address. Luckily the widow in the nursing homee who had her home for sale wrote the compliant letters. What a lucky break.

    Libtard in Union says:
    August 31, 2011 at 12:34 pm
    JJ (44):

    “Commerical Business that the assessor is not aware of you can get your taxes lower. ”

    I simply don’t believe you.

  44. A.West says:

    I think Sastry is up the hill on the north side of Green Brook, not in Bound Brook. My guess is that a lot of water went past his place, but kept going down hill. I bet Rt. 22 flooded down beneath him sometime.

  45. A.West says:

    Pat (35, 36),
    That furniture looks fit for Cthulu to sit upon.
    It looks haunted to me, and is really disturbing.

  46. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [36] pat

    That furniture make my eyes and optic nerves freeze up with overload. Don’t do that to me again.

  47. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    make s/b made. Friggen android

  48. Theo says:

    Libtard, why bleaching the floors and walls?

  49. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I see Jamil is back. That means fabius has to play zone.

    BTW, had to work all morning but it paid well. In addition to normal work, I was able to get a substantial reduction on my beach rental. Owner should be able to write it off to insurance, so he is all good, and I helped him a bit with his diligence. Pays sometimes to be reasonable.

    Now, off to the beach.

  50. Libtard in Union says:

    Theo,

    Got 9″ in the basement. (shut up JJ!)

  51. JJ says:

    I may have given nine inches in a basement, but never got nine inches in a basement. Does it hurt?

    Libtard in Union says:
    August 31, 2011 at 2:19 pm
    Theo,

    Got 9″ in the basement. (shut up JJ!)

  52. Libtard in Union says:

    And now you know why I used bleach.

  53. Juice Box says:

    re: #55 – Reminds me of the woman I saw in line at Target last week with several gallons of bleach, dozens of C size batteries, plus 6 bottles of Pantene Shampoo. Must have been one crazy weekend at her place.

  54. JJ says:

    They say a large bush can hide an ugly front door. But sometimes the bush can use a little bleach, vibrating and a nice shampoo.

    Seriously, I wonder if I could have just thrown a couple of boxes of tampons in my crawl space before I evacuated. You would think that would work.

    Juice Box says:
    August 31, 2011 at 2:52 pm
    re: #55 – Reminds me of the woman I saw in line at Target last week with several gallons of bleach, dozens of C size batteries, plus 6 bottles of Pantene Shampoo. Must have been one crazy weekend at her place.

  55. Nicholas says:

    What happened was we…O.K. my husband…sanded and thompsoned the back deck. The sealer never really dried and there’s now a new look and feel to our living room carpeting.

    Deck sealer is an oil based varnish so to remove it requires special solvents. It is doing its job and sticking to the surface as intended. Generally around the house we use soap and water as a solvent to remove nearly everything. In this case, the oil based varnish isn’t soluble in water and thus soap+water is no good.

    I believe that simple green, Oxyclean, etc all are water based solvents which include some mixure of what we essentially call “soap”. Those soaps come in different forms, some contain more fat than others, but in general, it is water based.

    What your looking for is an acetone based solvent to remove the varnish. They sell it in large cans, it is toxic, and smells like an instant headache about to punch you in the face. Also called, paint thinner, it is sold in 1 gallon cans and will remove the varnish fairly quickly. Alternately, you can use WD-40, and it will act as a solvent in the same manner. There are numerous products out there that can assist in the same fashion. I think that gasoline/kerosene will also do the trick but they leave behind a residue that stinks.

    Put on thick rubber gloves for harsh chemicals. These are not dishwashing gloves btw as those will deteriorate quickly under the acetone and it will get all over your fingers which will strip your skin of oil. It is also a carcinogen and prolonged exposure causes cancer. Make sure the area is well ventilated, open the door start a fan pointing outside. Apply the paint thinner to a paper towel until it is wet but not dripping and blot the carpet repeatedly until no more color comes off on the paper towel. Get a new paper towel and repeat the process. You are not scrubbing, instant contact with the acetone will cause the varnish to become liquid again, you are just using the paper towel to absorb that liquid. Keep ventilating until dry and the smell is gone.

    I would suggest testing the acetone/thinner/WD-40 in a test area, such as the back of a closet first to ensure color fastness of the carpet. Nothing would be worse then removing all the dye from a portion of your carpet just to remove a small bit of varnish.

    My brothers are professional painters, once while painting in oil in a “red room” my brother stepped on the lid of a paint can and proceeded to track red oil-based paint on the customer’s white carpet. It looked like a dead body had been dragged through the house. We spent several hours using the method above to completely remove the red stains from the carpet to such a degree that without super-vision you couldn’t pick out where the red paint had been.

    You can check out wiki answer for some other suggestions but they are pretty much the same.

    http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_do_you_remove_wood_stain_from_carpet

    I hope these tips help.

  56. Juice Box says:

    I guess the cookie races we made the freshman do in High School would now results in a jail sentence.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/31/nyregion/bullying-law-puts-new-jersey-schools-on-spot.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

  57. Captain Foresight HEHEHE says:

    The “Shining” Example Of Obama’s $787 Billion Fiscal Stimulus Act, Solar Energy Company Solyndra, Files For Bankruptcy

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/shining-example-obamas-787-billion-fiscal-stimulus-act-solar-energy-company-solyndra-files-bank

  58. freedy says:

    http://www.northjersey.com/news/Obama_to_view_Paterson_flood_damage_Sunday.html

    Bojangles makes a visit to the garden state. where will he eat?

  59. Anon E. Moose says:

    This guy can speak with authority about the career of a train conductor after a whole whopping five shifts on the job. Sheesh.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/power-your-future/surprising-6-figure-salaries-193529932.html

  60. The Original NJ Expat says:

    I may have given nine inches in a basement, but never got nine inches in a basement. Does it hurt?

    Three times? Impressive.

  61. jamil says:

    52, comrade “I see Jamil is back. That means fabius has to play zone”

    I’ve been back some time, just thought good opportunity to reduce time here..fabius lured me back, my bad.

    I was checking out London in case of relocating (have bigger office there). Ok place, but perhaps a bit too touristy for wifey’s taste and weather/taxes sucks. Chelsea in downtown and Richmond area in the suburbs were nice places to live, though. Price-wise similar to Manhattan.
    For now, most likely just stay around here (have to pick office, only options in high tax blue states, so now considering the one with nicer weather).

  62. JJ says:

    My train did a wild slip and slide today as when tracks were undewater they got covered in oil . Dope locked the brakes and smell was nasty. These guys need to drive around in a dodge dart for four years with bald tires like I did in school to learn how to stop.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    August 31, 2011 at 3:59 pm
    This guy can speak with authority about the career of a train conductor after a whole whopping five shifts on the job. Sheesh.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/power-your-future/surprising-6-figure-salaries-193529932.html

  63. A.West says:

    Anon.E.Moose,
    It’s not BS though, and good for that 25-yr old ex-medic for finding a high paying job upon his return. Railroad conductors do make good money, and get nice pensions too, as the unions have a pretty solid grip, and these positions are pretty important. Railroad companies like to hire from the military, and do personality tests and such. You have to stay focused for extended periods of monotony to make sure that you’re ready for the rare emergency. Sort of like a guy in a foxhole or a guy writing out of the money options. I didn’t think that junior guys get into 6 figures in their first or second year though, sounds a bit optimistic unless he’s getting lots of overtime.

    I suggested this sort of job for someone’s relative on this forum who was ex-military and looking for a new career. There is a wave of senior guys retiring out in coming years, and the railroads really are hiring to replace them. Railroads are seeing fairly solid and steady growth, better profitability, etc., due to their fuel cost advantage over trucks. When more military starts returning from overseas wars the railroads may find it easier to hire.

  64. serenity now says:

    Can anyone here make any comments on the financial soundness of
    Morgan Stanley / Smith Barney vs. UBS ?

  65. yo'me says:

    Buffett’s $5 billion is buying him 50,000 shares of a special class of so-called “preferred stock,” which will pay him a 6 percent dividend, or $300 million a year. Just for the sake of comparison, BofA’s common shareholders get a quarterly dividend of one penny a share. That means that if you owned $5 billion of ordinary BofA common stock at its current price of about $8 a share, you’d be getting a paltry $25 million a year in dividends—less than one-tenth of what Buffett will get. (Earlier this year, BofA tried and failed to get permission from the Federal Reserve to increase the dividend.)

    http://www.slate.com/id/2302540/

  66. Juice Box says:

    Yo’me buy BAC if you think the NY Attorney general will cave, he is the only thing preventing the settlement on over 400 billion in MBS lawsuits.

  67. Juice Box says:

    Serenity, retail brokerage? Smith has 6.8 million clients and 1.7 trillion under management, generates allot in fees and is actually hiring. UBS retail in US is 1/10th the size, according to their site. Withdrawals are occurring as the boomers are retiring there will be less in fees over the years unless they all decide to stay in stocks, which is a possibility with inflation. None of my friends use them only the older folks. Declaimer I have a UBS account for my stock options but I don’t trade thru them.

  68. Pat says:

    Wow, Nick, thanks. I was going to pour all kinds of stuff into the rug doctor and just try every week until the plastic feel went away.

  69. serenity now says:

    RE#71 Thanks JB.

  70. Prof. McDullard says:

    Yome,

    My house is along the hill… Nothing major happened. May be a little bit water trickled into basement sump through air vents? I could hear the sump pump going on a few times when I was sitting in the basement.

    Only complaint was that the cablevision crapped out and didn’t come back till today (the connection sucks even on warm, sunny days — we don’t have fios here, so no way out). Tried to get tethering on blackberry to work — took more than ten hours and countless verizon tech support calls. Supposed to be as simple as “install software, connect phone, and have network”… Finally cablevision modem lights came up while I was ending the call with verizon folks when they said something like, if you have internet access it will be easier to get tethering set up done!

    Oh, had a surgery, so had to stay put at home. Not having the internet was a blessing in disguise. And I have this job thing hanging over my head — I made my plans public everywhere, so there is added pressure for me to send the CV. Now, if the security guys over the new place refuse me entrance into the building, I have no Plan B [stay put for a couple of years?]! Tough to look at a Plan B, when all I want is Plan A (and it’s not MOMA).

    Pls retire my earlier nick name (that’s my first name) — I don’t want this stuff to appear on a random google search and someone feeling bad about something I inadvertently disclose…

  71. Prof. McDullard says:

    West,

    A lot of water went past the house — I routed the drain/stream so that it lies within the property (not disappear into thick bush), so the water sort of cleaned that up — plenty of birds and deer take a sip from the stream. View from the basement and sounds of birds chirping in the morning feels nice (though 6 am is almost always late night for me). Very few small branches fell in the backyard.

  72. stu (20)-

    This is an oxymoron.

    “French handyman”

  73. juice (25)-

    I could give you an answer to this, but you already know it.

    “So what % of these squatters are even bothering to fix damage from the Hurricane? How many of them are even cleaning out the gutters before a storm?”

  74. juice (59)-

    Bridgewater-Raritan HS? OMG, this is a skool where the trenchcoat mafia set builds bombs in their rooms and collects machine guns.

    That skool closed for two days last year when they caught two kids getting ready to do a Columbine. I don’t think that sort of response can all be blamed on “bullying”.

  75. Then again, were I left to my own devices, I would augment my armament of a single broken grenade launcher with as many automatic rifles and bombs as I could get.

  76. serenity (68)-

    Two corpses, rotting at roughly the same pace.

    “Can anyone here make any comments on the financial soundness of
    Morgan Stanley / Smith Barney vs. UBS ?”

  77. yo (69)-

    Wonder how Buffett feels about raising the tax rate on dividends.

    Oops…I think we already know the answer to that one.

  78. Here’s some really happy stuff (which is preceded in the article from which this is excerpted by 25 bullet points of pure doom):

    “Things have not looked this bad for global financial markets since 2008. Unless someone rides in on a white horse with trillions of dollars (or euros) of easy credit, it looks like we are headed for a massive credit crunch.

    What we witnessed back in 2008 was absolutely horrifying. Very few people want to see a repeat of that. But as things in the U.S. and Europe continue to unravel, it appears increasingly likely that the next wave of the financial crisis could hit us sooner rather than later.

    None of the fundamental problems that caused the crisis of 2008 have been fixed. The world financial system is still one gigantic mountain of debt, leverage and risk.

    Authorities around the globe will certainly do all they can to keep things stable, but in the end it is inevitable that the house of cards is going to come crashing down.

    Let us hope for the best, but let us also prepare for the worst.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/it-time-financial-world-panic-25-reasons-why-answer-may-be-yes

  79. A.West says:

    Meat,
    Don’t worry. I’m picking up hints that the Chinese government is so worried that they will tell their banks to start making consumer loans. So there could be a whole new bubble to feast on for a few years before the entire global financial system collapses off the paper dollar standard. It’s always fun to watch how a society that saved for hundreds of years can suddenly go on a massive credit spree and bankrupt itself in just a few years. Like a solitary preacher walking into a wh0reh0use for the first time.

  80. Prof. McDullard says:

    Google home page showed this Groupon style offer — $5 for American Museum of Natural History (general admission + one show… limit 5 tickets per person). Seems like a pretty decent deal.

  81. Good post. A new project launched by M3M at Gurgaon India Named M3M polo Suites

  82. serenity now says:

    Two corpses, rotting at roughly the same pace.
    Thanks Clot……. so poetic!

  83. west (83)-

    I thought most Chinese even eligible for credit are already drowning in debt…especially those who own urban dwellings.

    This will end in tears.

  84. chicagofinance says:

    JJ surfaces…..

    Man suffering from long, painful erections ‘tried to rob’ father for drug money
    By JAMIE SCHRAM,JENNIFER GOULD KEIL and KIRSTAN CONLEY

    When you find yourself suffering an erection that lasts more than four hours you should call your doctor — not rob your father.

    An Upper East Side man who suffers from a condition called priapism — which causes painful erections that can last for hours — was busted for allegedly trying to steal money from his father to buy painkillers he hoped would grant him relief, according to sources.

    David Miller, 30, was so hard up for drugs that he allegedly broke into dad Tommy’s place on York Avenue on Aug. 23, pulled a knife and snarled, “I want you out, and I want money!”

    GREGORY P. MANGO
    Tommy Miller
    His father stood firm, however, calling cops and having him arrested on charges of burglary and attempted robbery, according to court documents.

    The elder Miller said his son became addicted to painkillers because of his excruciating erections.

    “My son has a very rare disease, he has a priapism, which means he gets an erection that lasts five or six hours, and it’s very painful,” Tommy Miller, 57, said. “They gave him oxycodone. That’s his problem.

    “He’s addicted to drugs now.”

    Miller’s father said his son has suffered for years.

    “He’s been sick since he was a little boy. He has an enzyme deficiency,” he said. “I had him arrested. I bailed him out.”

    Miller is waiting to be sprung from Rikers. Bail was posted at $25,000 bond or $5,000 cash and was still being held as of yesterday.

    This wasn’t the first time he has gotten into trouble.

    On May 1, his father posted $3,500 bond after Miller was busted in another incident on charges of attempted robbery and weapons possession just three blocks away.

    In that case, Miller was accused of brandishing a kitchen knife and demanding cash from a man sitting on a bench.

    He allegedly yelled, “Give me $20! Give me $20!”

    Instead of giving in, the victim tackled Miller to the ground before calling cops.

    Miller has a rap sheet going back to 2006, when he was busted for allegedly assaulting a girlfriend and spitting in a cop’s face.

    He has 11 prior arrests, for theft, assault, burglary, petit larceny, violating orders of protection, trespass and criminal possession of stolen property.

  85. Libtard in Union says:

    Having 6 hour stiffies in Rikers is a recipe for disaster.

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