From the WSJ:
Housing Market May Be Nearing a Bottom
The housing market is starting to show a pulse.
For the first time in a long time, housing figures are coming in better than expected. The National Association of Home Builders’ sentiment index jumped three points this month to 20, its highest reading in over a year. Last week, the Commerce Department said building permits and construction of single-family homes rose in October. The Federal Reserve’s fourth-quarter loan survey showed a pickup in demand for mortgage loans.
Mission accomplished? Not quite. Construction is picking up but remains at historically depressed levels, and broader sales activity is still anemic. Indeed, the National Association of Realtors’ existing-home sales report, out Monday, is likely to show a second straight monthly decline in October to a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of about 4.8 million units. That would mean the sales rate has dropped by more than 10% so far this year.
Meanwhile, the foreclosure supply is ticking back up. After declining for three straight quarters, the percentage of loans on which foreclosure action has started rose in the third quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest survey showed. This was partly due to remediation programs and the sunset of earlier foreclosure halts, the group said. The continued trickle of distressed properties is likely to keep downward pressure on home prices.
…
Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists expect the foreclosure process to speed up in nonjudicial states next year, with liquidations peaking in 2013. This is partly why they expect home prices to drop another 8% on average nationwide over the next 18 months before bottoming. This assumes a healthy pickup in sales; if customers shy away because of economic angst or tighter lending criteria, a rebound will take longer to materialize.Still, six years after existing-home sales peaked, the market is at least edging toward a bottom. The biblical notion that seven years of famine follows seven years of feast may have something to it.
O bother we are almost at the bottom for the hundreth time. Not to say we have not seen the majority of the declines on a percentage basis. Now the slow bleed with ever rising taxes, buy now and get locked in forever.
Having 40+ over for Thanksgiving and the house still isn’t done yet! (yeah, it’ll never be done)
Good Morning New Jersey
Meat leave that bottle alone and use that “show a pulse’ line, they are pitching you lob balls.
2.grim says:
November 21, 2011 at 6:30 am
Having 40+ over for Thanksgiving and the house still isn’t done yet! (yeah, it’ll never be done
I’ve got 10 for Thanksgiving, but I already have reservations. Cheaper taking them out. No fuss, no muss.
Grim
do they grow turkey big enough for forty people?
Grim are you crazy, I have cooked for a living but will not do 40 at home. Gonna need a lot of ovens for all those turkeys! And you are correct it will never be done, been there.
I get to show up at my brothers with a cheese & olive platter (per request) and vino.
Gotta love that.
Who the f**k is going to Kiev?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-21/dollar-preeminence-grows-as-foreign-banks-double-deposits-at-new-york-fed.html#
Grim by the way one whole bird the rest who;e breasts. Cook the breasts in advance, whole for show & aroma.
Oops whole , fat fingers.
Formal LR and DR furniture goes into the basement, tables and chairs being delivered Wednesday (something like 5 or 6 6ft round tables). A turkey and the ham are being done elsewhere, one 22lb turkey breast in the oven here, one outside in the fryer (hey, the guys will need something to do while drinking beer at 11am).
Grim sounds like a plan, enjoy!
Yo 10 , we are the whore with least milage.
Shore and BC- This one’s for you. Convention Hall is sooo cold in February.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/21/showbiz/springsteen-tour/index.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-21/billionaires-duck-buffett-17-tax-target-avoiding-reporting-cash-to-irs.html#
S&P futures below 1200, 1.5% or so drop. This will be a fun day. Waiting to buy half back in at 1100.
Grim – I have 40+ over to my house every birthday and holiday. once you break 30 it is madness anyhow, like difference between 5 and 7 kids.
Good buying opportunities this week.
JJ – 5 kids as guests or you have 5 kids? I’ve got 5 kids. Trying to talk the wife into 6 but right now the minivan simply won’t agree.
Grim:
Good luck with the 40+guests. Have a good holiday.
Cain,meet Abel:
http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2011/11/21/seattle-mariners-halman-stabbed-to-death-in-holland/
NJC,
Cool!!!!!!! I have been hoping they would get back on the road.
The housing market is starting to show a pulse.
And I heard my aunt was almost born with b@lls.
What a blanket, no-nothing, lazy f*cking statement. We’re still another 18 months away and G0d knows how much blood-letting before we declare dead winter on housing for North Jersey.
Re : Da Boss
Who’s our Scout down in Asbury ??
I know we have eyes down on Kingsley Street, at the first sign of Box Trucks unloading stage gear……..send up the Boss Symbol.
Are we still allowed to celebrate Thanksgiving? When is the Oblama crowd going to declare it discriminatory and non-inclusive?
“Trying to talk the wife into 6 but right now the minivan simply won’t agree.”
Scr-ew the minivan. Trade up to a tour bus:
http://www.nightskytravel.com/semi.htm
“Who’s our Scout down in Asbury ??”
Orion, I believe.
Gary No. 24 You’re not taking questions on that one?
Thanksgiving ugh……. My brother is hosting and I get to bring a dessert. We are going to will whip up a white chocolate raspberry swirl cheesecake, it is guaranteed to make you go out and buy larger pants the next day. Afterward, I will be spending next the month at the gym on the treadmill getting ready for my ski vacation over the holidays. Already too many weddings, birthday parties, christenings, work functions etc over the last few weeks, and combine that with it now getting dark early and there is little time for outdoor exercise or anything outdoors, hense the ugh……I need new pants already.
#24 Gary – I believe I used the term “pulse” the other day when commenting on the market. A pulse does not have to indicate a bottom, just that there is life to the market.
The pulse I feel does not cross every level or segment of the market. Right now there is strong investor demand, particularly for 2 to 4 unit inner city properties and suburban fixer uppers. Also suburban starter homes in communities with desirable school systems are heating up. Price and condition are key with these buyers.
I have been super negative on the housing market for years. Friends called me Chicken Little in 04 and 05 when I told them the bottom would fall out. Now I feel a pulse and see reason to be motivated. It won’t be the recovery many are hoping for, but I believe we are close to putting in a solid floor in many markets. It won’t happen until after the REO flood is underway and it will start in the strongest markets first.
Here’s another thing to be negative on and why:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/20/business/after-law-school-associates-learn-to-be-lawyers.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all
This was painfully apparent to me after law school, when I was sitting in a training session at Skadden similar to the one described in the article. I was answering questions that seemed simple to me because I paid attention in my undergrad accounting class, worked prior to law school, went to a law school that actually taught a little lawyering, and had some experience and a clerkship before signing on at Skadden. By contrast, the folks around me were right out of academia with little real experience except for maybe a summer associateship.
So they remarked to me “wow, how come you know so much?” That really amused me because after being in DC for 2 years, and at Skadden for six months, I knew that I didn’t know crap.
And that, kiddies, is why you never want your litigation matter being handled by associates from Harvard, Yale, Columbia, etc.
In honor of today’s topic:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8fYlqqg-pQ
30 year,
Understood… and well-taken. The REO flood is going to be a sustained flow given the way they are handled in NJ. No?
Biblical mention of the seven years? Meat used to say forty years in the desert, but then changed it to full on extinction.
Didn’t somebody tell the NAR it’s different around here, and all Real Estate is local?
Shadow Inventory is over 100k homes in NJ. How is having 100k NEW foreclosures dumped on the market going to affect the price of the other homes for sale in NJ? I would say there is a wee bit more to go down, perhaps after the first wave of these new foreclosures hits the market then somebody can call bottom for New Jersey.
18.Buying Hunt says:
November 21, 2011 at 7:54 am
S&P futures below 1200, 1.5% or so drop. This will be a fun day. Waiting to buy half back in at 1100.
I’m waiting to buy when it hits 600.
Nom,
This is the key point in that article:
“One 2010 study of hiring at top-tier law schools since 2000 found that the median amount of practical experience was one year, and that nearly half of faculty members had never practiced law for a single day. If medical schools took the same approach, they’d be filled with professors who had never set foot in a hospital. “
I might have way more than five kids, but so far legally only three can prove they are my kids. Of all the people I know who have kids the most impressed I was is this one guy I worked with from NJ of all places. Had a kid in 1998, 1999,, 2000 and 2001 with first wife and in 2002, 2003 and 2004 with second wife and when I stopped working with him his wife was pushing for number eight. Even more amazing had multiple promotions at work between 1998 and 2004. There is an old German expression “the baby brings the bread”. He is living proof. Even crazier he was good looking in shape and all of 33 years of age when he had baby 7. Also all seven were daughters. Reason second wife wanted 4 cause first wife got four. Nuff said. But he said 8 is enough. Between 2017 and 2037 he has eight colleges to pay for and eight weddings good thing he got married young and planned to have his last kid at 34.
Only complaint he had was food shopping in the summer when girls were home, he hit BJs bring home $1,000 of food on Sunday and open fridge on a Wed and it would be empty. if the older girls had playdates there would be 40 girls in house, when 40 girls stay of lunch and have a snack two days in a row that is 80 meals and 80 snacks tied in with his usual 27 meals served a day in his house. 27 meals a day times 7 is 189 meals a week. That is a lot of food, wait till grand kids come!!! This guy is working till he is 100.
Buying Hunt says:
November 21, 2011 at 8:28 am
JJ – 5 kids as guests or you have 5 kids? I’ve got 5 kids. Trying to talk the wife into 6 but right now the minivan simply won’t agree.
#35 Juice – Different areas will be impacted in different ways by the REO tsunami. Historically distant suburban/rural areas like Sussex and Warren are subject to greater weakness. Inner city areas with high property taxes will not see investors jumping in with both feet due to the bite taxes take from the bottom line. The historically desirable markets will see the fewest REO and the firmest and fastest bottoms. Strongest demand will be for starter type homes.
Recovery may be too strong a word for how the North Jersey real estate market will evolve. People associate recovery with prices rising and I do not anticipate that to be the case. I anticipate a moderate recovery in demand and firmer pricing. Earliest sustainable positive change likely to begin in early 2013 if mortgage rates remain low.
[37] shore
I considered the meat market, hoping to find an adjunct position (I hold no illusions about full professorships with my pedestrian background), but I quickly concluded it would be a complete waste of my time.
Funny thing is that, at this point, I know that I can outlawyer many people teaching in law schools, even in their own disciplines. I absolutely savaged my Tax Policy professor (and got my highest grade at NYU from her) because I had been in the world and she hadn’t. The exceptions are those that actually worked as lawyers. I impressed the hell out of my crim law professor (her words, not mine), who had come from DoJ, and who gave me my highest grade in my JD program, but I knew I could not outlawyer her.
Also, can’t outlawyer the adjuncts as they are actually real lawyers. My Trial Prep class was taught by an Assistant US Attorney, and my Neg/Med class was taught by one of the best known negotiators in the Northeast.
Finally, for the reasons Phil Hodgens mentions, you usually can’t outlawyer tax faculty.
http://hodgen.com/tax-law-is-algebra/
30 year – I fully expect that the government will kick the leg out from the stool propping up the mortgage market in 2013 after the election since losses and Fannie, Freddie, FHA will need another massive bailout.
Nom,
It is amazing the hostility that the academics show towards practicing attorneys, except for trial practice classes, where the adjuncts save the day. Speaking of the meat market, those here who have less connection with law might find this interesting (from that same piece):
It is widely believed that after lawyers have spent more than eight or nine years practicing, their chances of getting a tenure-track job at law school start to dwindle.
“Nobody wants to become a retirement home, or a place for washed-out lawyers,” says Kevin R. Johnson, dean of the law school at the University of California, Davis, who came to the meat market with six positions to fill.
This might seem a paradox — experienced people need not apply — but the academy views seasoned pros with a certain suspicion. In fact, a number of veterans of legal practice who failed to land tenure-track jobs say that experience was a stigma they could not beat.
“It can be fatal, because the academy wants people who are not sullied by the practice of law,” said a longtime lawyer and adjunct professor, who did not want to be identified because his remarks might alienate colleagues. “A lot of people who are good at big ideas, the people who teach at law school, think it is beneath them.”
I always wonder how classroom smart students do in real world of lawyering. Guy we knew who was a real shady lawyer in Brooklyn had a client once whose opposing lawyer he found out was about to pick up a critical piece of evidence to convict his client. I asked him what he did, said I went to my favorite busy Italian restaurant in Brooklyn with my girl friend, got table for two in front window so everybody could see me, valet parked kept ticket, did a sep bar tab and dinner tabs and get receipts and said hello to everyone I could and charged it all back to client. I said how did this help client, he goes it didn’t but it helped me as someone was going to push other lawyer to ground and steal his briefcase with evidence and I wanted to make sure I was covered. Cant learn that in school. Guess other lawyer with mouthful of gravel in parking lot and no evidence had lots of splaining to do in morning to the DA.
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
November 21, 2011 at 10:37 am
[37] shore
I considered the meat market, hoping to find an adjunct position (I hold no illusions about full professorships with my pedestrian background), but I quickly concluded it would be a complete waste of my time.
Funny thing is that, at this point, I know that I can outlawyer many people teaching in law schools, even in their own disciplines. I absolutely savaged my Tax Policy professor (and got my highest grade at NYU from her) because I had been in the world and she hadn’t. The exceptions are those that actually worked as lawyers. I impressed the hell out of my crim law professor (her words, not mine), who had come from DoJ, and who gave me my highest grade in my JD program, but I knew I could not outlawyer her.
Also, can’t outlawyer the adjuncts as they are actually real lawyers. My Trial Prep class was taught by an Assistant US Attorney, and my Neg/Med class was taught by one of the best known negotiators in the Northeast.
Finally, for the reasons Phil Hodgens mentions, you usually can’t outlawyer tax faculty.
http://hodgen.com/tax-law-is-algebra/
18.Buying Hunt says:
November 21, 2011 at 7:54 am
S&P futures below 1200, 1.5% or so drop. This will be a fun day. Waiting to buy half back in at 1100.
I’m waiting to buy when it hits 600.
400. Then just sit back and do nothing for the next 20 years, work will be done.
I just left the post office in the brig. There is a mercedes g class illegally parked out front with a license plate that reads “iluvnyc”
it reminds me of a joke that starts what’s the difference between a porcupine in a mercedes?
Porcupine has the pricks on the outside. I heard it with BMW.
Should be difference between a porcupine *and* a Mercedes, no?
(47) expat
Yep. Voice recognition software leaves much to be desired.
This chick reminds me of a woman who used to come over on friday nights begging that I bang her after my girlfriend left to clean my fathers crush velour.
http://www.aol.com/2011/11/17/german-woman-animal-crushing-fetish_n_1101365.html
I’ve long believed that owning a German car is the mark of an a-hole. then I got one, and realized its the mark of a fool too.
JJ: resurrecting from Friday, because you blow off the blog once you leave work….
chicagofinance says:
November 18, 2011 at 4:44 pm
What is the modification? That is the key…..
JJ says:
November 18, 2011 at 4:29 pm
I have trups issued in increments of $1,000. Not the pref shares at $25. From what I read they can only be called at par. That part of indenture is not being modified.
JJ says:
November 18, 2011 at 4:49 pm
When I say payments I mean all the payments. I saw sprinkler shut off, lawnservice canceled, couldnt afford to close pool and now he has heating bills coming in. Unless he wants to live in Grey Gardens he has to get out. He can’t afford a small yard shed right now.
November 18, 2011 at 4:50 pm
mod is right to call at par and replace trup with equiv sub note at at par.
chicagofinance says:
November 18, 2011 at 5:36 pm
JJ: you tell me….MBNA Capital D 8.125% Trust Preferred Securities, Series D is currently callable at par and is trading at $24 1/8. Why the solicitation? Just call the bitch? I think a backroom deal is afoot…..
chicagofinance says:
November 18, 2011 at 5:45 pm
The critical definition is “like amount”
The effect of the Proposed Amendment for any series of Capital Securities will be, if any Capital Securities of such series are acquired by Bank of America, to permit the delivery of such securities to the property trustee for cancellation in exchange for a like amount of the underlying junior subordinated debt, which would then be presented to the applicable debt trustee for cancellation.
chicagofinance says:
November 18, 2011 at 6:52 pm
found this….
The thinking has been that the securities would be called at par, but there is a good argument that the realized price may be less than par. Quoting Merrill Lynch “The redemptions could come as call or tender offers. For securities that are trading near or above par, we would expect the redemptions would likely come as calls. For securities trading well below par, companies may opt for a voluntary tender offer—under such a scenario, holders of the security would be given the chance to sell the security back to the company at a price above the market price, but below the par call price.”
We are putting together an update piece for our subscribers to PreferredsOnline. 11 Oct, 02:13 PM0
chicagofinance says:
November 18, 2011 at 6:57 pm
more…..
Did everyone see the news from BAC Thursday night? They commented in the 10Q that they are considering selling stock to buy back the trust preferreds. Page 10 of the latest 10Q;
“During the third quarter, global economic uncertainty and volatility continued as described more fully in the Executive Summary – Third Quarter 2011 Economic and Business Environment discussion on page 7. Concerns over these and other issues contributed to a widening of credit spreads for many financial institutions, including the Corporation, resulting in lowering of market values of debt and preferred stock issued by financial institutions. The uncertainty in the market evidenced by, among other things, volatility in credit spread movements, makes it economically advantageous at this time to consider retirement of issued junior subordinated debt and preferred stock. As a result of these matters, we intend to explore the issuance of common stock and senior notes in exchange for shares of preferred stock and, subject to any required amendments to the applicable governing documents, certain trust preferred capital debt securities (Trust Securities) issued by unconsolidated trust companies, in privately negotiated transactions. If we pursue the exchange of Trust Securities, we would immediately use the purchased Trust Securities to retire a corresponding amount of our junior subordinated debt that we previously issued to the unconsolidated trust companies. These transactions would increase Tier 1 common capital and, on an after-tax basis, reduce the combined level of interest expense and dividends paid on the combined junior subordinated debt and preferred stock. The senior notes and common stock would be recorded at fair value at issuance, which is expected to be less than the par and carrying value of the preferred stock and/or junior subordinated debt, which would result in the exchanges being accretive to earnings per common share for the period in which completed. The ultimate impact on earnings per common share is not expected to be significant for periods subsequent to the exchange and will not be known until the level of earnings per common share for the period and the exact combination of exchanged preferred stock and Trust Securities are known. We will not issue more than 400 million shares of common stock or $3 billion in new senior notes in connection with these exchanges.”
chicagofinance says:
November 18, 2011 at 6:59 pm
This passage from above…WTF does this mean?
The senior notes and common stock would be recorded at fair value at issuance, which is expected to be less than the par and carrying value of the preferred stock and/or junior subordinated debt, which would result in the exchanges being accretive to earnings per common share for the period in which completed. The ultimate impact on earnings per common share is not expected to be significant for periods subsequent to the exchange and will not be known until the level of earnings per common share for the period and the exact combination of exchanged preferred stock and Trust Securities are known.
Chifi, weekend kills me. Anyhow holders who do not consent will be bound by proposed admendments but will not receive consent fee. Other thing is I can sell and still consent as long as I held securities on 11-14. 11 record date.
Interesting they did not offer on any Nations Bank or Fleet TRUPS only BAC and MBNA this is interesting as they offered on a 7.7 Coupon BAC trup while there are 8+ NB and Fleet Trups.
Other issue is bid ask is a mile wide. Bid 94 and ask 91. Hard to get out.
Grim [2];
That’s what you get for buying a house. No one seems to want to visit a lowly renter. The church should put that on the list of people who need visitation along with leppers, the aged, etc.
JJ [52];
Bid 94 and ask 91. ?!?
http://youtu.be/G_rKWdH-ox8
Chi Fi other thing I can’t figure out is BAC owns Merril. If BAC has trups trading at under par with 8% plus coupons why not just on the down low keep buying the bonds till the cows come home. That plus most of these bonds are callable at 102 anyhow. Nearly all of TRUPS called have a 12/1 or 12/15 coupon coming up. They have to pay that interest either way. At 8% they are paying 4% on that day anyhow. Some of these trups I bought as far back as April 2009 at a low price of 76 and I have a high price of 102. I dollar cost averaged in. However as recently as spring these bonds were trading for 103/104 those people are going to be very mad.
Details Details. I just like to hit buy and sell buttons.
Anon E. Moose says:
November 21, 2011 at 12:21 pm
JJ [52];
Bid 94 and ask 91. ?!?
http://youtu.be/G_rKWdH-ox8
Here is something the likes of which I have never heard about in the modern world:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/15-eunuchs-killed-tent-fire-india-article-1.980690?localLinksEnabled=false&google_editors_picks=true
NEW DELHI — It was to be a rare moment of camaraderie and celebration for India’s marginalized eunuchs. Thousands had traveled to New Delhi to participate in a ceremony to honor deceased friends and to pray for the health of all children.
Then a fire erupted in a huge makeshift tent Sunday night. Panic broke out and 15 eunuchs were killed and 36 others were injured, fire officials said.
snip
Sastry,
Eunuchs in India Really?
BANKAMERICA CAP II INCME PFD 8.00000% 12/15/2026
Price (Bid) 90.000
Price (Ask) 93.940
Yield to Worst (Ask) 8.730%
066048AA7
If BAC wants bonds they could just hit buy button.
They are callable right now at these price, 12/15/2011 101.984 Premium so if they think they are a bargain buy them at dealer price of 91, why do the tender unless they think they can get them cheaper.
Congress, yea, that is obvious but, India?
“India’s eunuch population is estimated at about 700,000.”
That a whole lot of guys missing parts.
57 shore I guess they didn’t have the balls to leave.
Nom we love driving our Audi. We hate having to pay to service it.
VCMG to release SPOCK
After 30 years working on their respective ongoing music projects, Vince Clarke (Erasure / Yazoo / Depeche Mode) and Martin L. Gore (Depeche Mode) come together for the first time since 1981 as VCMG to release a brand new album preceded by a series of EPs.
VCMG is the fruit of initially tentative discussion and subsequent enthused collaboration where Vince and Martin, both influential as pioneers in electronic music, get to exercise their lifelong love of the genre as the techno inspired VCMG.
As Vince explains: “I’ve been getting into and listening to a lot of minimal dance music and I got really intrigued by all the sounds… I realised I needed a collaborator… so it occurred to me to talk to Martin.”
Says Gore: “Out of the blue I got an e-mail from Vince just saying, ‘I’m interested in making a techno album. Are you interested in collaborating?’ This was maybe a year ago. He said, ‘No pressure, no deadlines,’ so I said, ‘OK’.”
The writing and recording of the album was done in a typically unique way with the pair working alone in their respective studios, communicating only via email, exchanging files until the album was ready. It was in May 2011 that the pair met for the first time to discuss the project when they both performed at Short Circuit presents Mute festival in London.
The album (title to be announced soon) was produced by Vince Clarke and Martin L. Gore and mixed by the influential Californian electronic artist Überzone / Q and will be released in the spring of 2012.
The first release is an EP entitled Spock
EP1 / SPOCK will feature remixes from Edit-Select, aka Tony Scott, the UK DJ / producer and founder of EditSelect Records whose previous remix credits include Speedy J, Death In Vegas and Gary Beck; Regis, British techno musician Karl O’Connor, member of the Sandwell District collective and co-founder of Downwards Records); Zak aka DVS1, founder of Hush Records and one of the most prominent figures in US dance music counts techno innovator Derrick May amongst his biggest fans, with his second ever release on May’s own Transmat plus XOQ, the alter ego of Überzone / Q, who mixed the VCMG album.
http://www.amazon.de/gp/product/B0068MN150/ref=dm_dp_trk1/276-1338130-9864817
I think John must be an editor at CBS:
http://www.cbsnews.com/2300-501465_162-10009007-10.html?tag=page;next
Not that they have much to cut off. Generally indian moms and dad in america discourage daughters from dating non asian men in general as they want their daughters to only marry indian men. They also encourage them not to date much and marry young. If these girls had something to compare their husbands to be petitie sized pee pee to a real man’s tool there is no way they would ever have all indian grandkids.
Shore Guy says:
November 21, 2011 at 12:29 pm
“India’s eunuch population is estimated at about 700,000.”
That a whole lot of guys missing parts.
The term eunuch, or hijra, is used in India to describe transvestites, transsexuals and others who identify themselves as neither male nor female but as a member of a third gender.
India’s eunuch population is estimated at about 700,000
Bring them all to NJ and give them FHA loans. It sounds like some of them are already experienced in clearing an inventory overhang;-)
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/20/opinion/sunday/friedman-how-about-better-parents.html
“In recent years, we’ve been treated to reams of op-ed articles about how we need better teachers in our public schools and, if only the teachers’ unions would go away, our kids would score like Singapore’s on the big international tests. There’s no question that a great teacher can make a huge difference in a student’s achievement, and we need to recruit, train and reward more such teachers. But here’s what some new studies are also showing: We need better parents.”
“New studies?” New? Is Tom Friedman really that stupid? You mean shoveling money at this problem isn’t the answer after all? Duh.
On the other hand, given our unicorn herds and proximity to Manhattan, clearly what we need in NJ is a property tax increase to provide increased funding “for the children.”
What the…..
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/11/21/florida-school-calls-police-after-12-year-olds-kiss-on-playground/
“We need better parents”
No kidding Tommy.
I suspect we could take all the kids from the worst-performing school in the state and send them to the best-performing school and little would change for the students. Likewise, I suspect that we could take all the kids from the best-performing school and send them to the worst-performing school and they would still be just fine.
Parents more focused on their children’s education can also make a huge difference in a student’s achievement.
Which is why Parochial School kids trounce most government educated kids at less than half the cost. I have a friend who’s a “high” ranking public shool official in a North Jersey school district. When I say to my friend the cost is “for the children,” he laughs and says that the word “children” never comes up in board meetings.
CHIfi not all bad news in TRUP land today, this one got called at par today for 12-5-2011. Any clients own it. I got in at 88. Call is at par, 1,000 per bond.
Firestorm of calls in Bank and Muni Bonds coming in next 45 days. Anyone in contract fixed income or bond fund or have cds or bonds rolling over look out. Damm savers getting beaten.
MARSHALL & ILSLEY CORP MEDIUM
TERM NOTE BK/ENTRY DTD 12/5/03
R/MD 6.00 12/05/2023
Better parents, yes but public school’s talk about parental involvement is 100% lip service. I have been in IEP meetings in two school districts, they want you to sell baked goods for the PTA and make sure your kid is quiet in class, oh, and they would love it if you gave him some pills in the morning, thanks. Other than that, sit down and shut up.
(72) Barbara,
Ever notice that every accommodation in an IEP that wasn’t forced in by a parent actually helps the school district more than the kid, if it helps at all?
One I heard of was additional time and a scribe for standard tests.
Doesn’t help (and may actually hurt) the child, but certainly helps the district.
73. Nom
My son needs extra ti e during tests but what I wanted is some testing to test for specific learning disabilities, something beyond an IQ test. I was subtly threatened that if any tests show up positive he would be classified “forever” and could be put in classes with the emotionally disturbed kids. Nice, eh? My kid is very well behaved and would be thrown in with a bunch of juvy bound because mommy couldn’t keep her mouth shut.
Nom, to your point, every new curriculum that is introduced ( every three years on average, gotta justify that local rule and those fat salaries) it ultimately designed to save the teacher time and make their jobs easier. I won’t go into boring detAils but the latest introduced this fall involves copious Post-It noting on reading book pages. I was wondering why I was spending 15 dollars on Post It’s at Staples this past September, now I know. Now my son is being evaluated on his Post It’s. Romey, Michelle? Can’t make this shiz up.
Barb I could tell you horror stories about two kids from different families one with Aspergers and one with downs who are the kids of friends and a certain school system. Lets put it this way, child services was called on both sets of parents to make them uncomfortable, the parents would move and the children would be removed from the school systems. Luckily child services called them on their BS and it blew up in their faces. I really can’t wait to deal with this Sh*t in a 5 years after the twins are born. 13 years of public school hooray. Your children being educated by the mob
Oh, when I mentioned to the reading teacher at the IEP that the post it noting, while it maybe great for other kids, it is counterintuitive to my kid’s focusing issues and undermines all of the work and progress that I have made with him overt he last three years, I got the head tilt and she through her resume at me …”I’ve been doing this for 30 years…..”. If I was quicker I would have asked her why in 30 years she has yet to find a curriculum that works.
Pain,
Good chance you will have two precocious little girls. Girls actually do very well with these curriculums. The gender divide in my son’s class is surprising.
Tell him you will enroll him in The Second Mile if he does not behave. I was never in Special Ed but I do know as far back as kindergarten they tried to put me there, I recall them even forcing my mom to visit a doctor who gave her a who pile of yellow pills to dope me out but I never took them. Instead my Mom never allowed me in special ed and never tried to really improve my behavior. My mom felt it was the teachers problem not hers. I still recall in 10th grade I had this one teacher absolutely nuts and he was flipping out when the guidance counselor, admin or my parents could care less. Write what ever notes you want by law I am under 16 and you got me for a full 40 weeks. Poor guy. I had him at wits end by spring and he told me he has one more year till he hit 40 years when he wants to retire and but I was his worst student in 39 years and he cant risk having another like me. I said really? I am number one!, thank you so much. Only weird part is principal would assign me to classes of teachers he did not like, he got back at teachers he did not like by giving them the worst students. I was actually in an odd way helping the Principal. Sadly my technique did not work as well in grad school and occassionally I had to study and kiss the teachers butt, thank god I only had to do it for two years, if I had to kiss but the whole 12 years of school and 4 years of college I would have shot myself.
Funny part is none of my transcpipts even exist. Long Long before PC
Barbara says:
November 21, 2011 at 3:44 pm
73. Nom
My son needs extra ti e during tests but what I wanted is some testing to test for specific learning disabilities, something beyond an IQ test. I was subtly threatened that if any tests show up positive he would be classified “forever” and could be put in classes with the emotionally disturbed kids. Nice, eh? My kid is very well behaved and would be thrown in with a bunch of juvy bound because mommy couldn’t keep her mouth shut.
Through = threw
I think I have Aspergers syndrome. Now if I could only get film of me in High School or College after 30 beers and a few bong hits I might have all the symthoms at once.
Asperger’s syndrome symptoms include:
Engaging in one-sided, long-winded conversations, without noticing if the listener is listening or trying to change the subject
Displaying unusual nonverbal communication, such as lack of eye contact, few facial expressions, or awkward body postures and gestures
Showing an intense obsession with one or two specific, narrow subjects, such as baseball statistics, train schedules, weather or snakes
Appearing not to understand, empathize with or be sensitive to others’ feelings
Having a hard time “reading” other people or understanding humor
Speaking in a voice that is monotonous, rigid or unusually fast
Moving clumsily, with poor coordination
Sounds like we need to have an IEP GTG. I am developing this as a practice area, but while one can know the law, the real problem is having your own theories to rebut their theories. I think that, like so many cases, it comes down to a battle of the experts.
Here in the brig, the town will classify and generate an IEP with little pushback because they figure you will lawyer up, but when you actually take the time to think about the “concessions” they made, they aren’t really concessions at all.
Darn. Now why didn’t I get some of this shiny into my portfolio????
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Barb, boy and a girl. Between my wife and I they will probably be better off being taught at home. 3 Science degrees between us, she is better at math. I excel at English lit and history. I just hope they get my cynical anti authority streak and question everything. I can fix the rest of the junk the cabel of education idiots brainwashes children with.
Another thing, why in all things holy are post it notes a good teaching tool? That is the dumbest thing I ever heard. Kind of like my some of the scholars in my advanced genetics classes who highlighted everything. If you highlight everything on the page how do you know what is important? People are dumb.
[83] redux
Doesn’t go right to slide, so go to slide 5. I especially love the relief inscription.
Now you sound like my staff. And yes there is a slight downside to not paying attention in school. But hey life is a trade up. For instance the night in HS I saw Steffenwolfe in concert with dollar beers at my Fathers Place in Roslyn and got home at 4am the trade off was I was completely out of it the next day in school and did not learn anything. This was repeated a few hundred times. Mom shoved me on that 7am bus to HS no matter what time I got home.
Barbara says:
November 21, 2011 at 4:07 pm
Through = threw
blackberry no proofreading. Jeez maybe I shouldn’t teach them English.
[84] pain
Not as dumb as all the grammatical errors I see in the writings of my daughter’s English teacher.
Yes, English teacher. And she is making 5th grade reading level errors.
[72] “public school’s talk about parental involvement is 100% lip service”
No doubt. Schools and teachers’ unions want your tax money, but they don’t want anyone interfering with the little racket they’ve got going.
That said, the important parental involvement is the stuff that happens outside of the classroom. And that’s where the parents of so many of our “yutes” are utter failures.
The fact that one of the most well-known columnists at the New York Times thinks that “new studies” showing the (unexpected!) importance of being a good parent is newsworthy shows how low we have sunk into Nanny State dependence.
I think we need to setup a government program to further study the effects of irresponsible/lazy parenting and then have a committee recommend a few government programs to address the situation. It will be money well-spent, and, after all, it’s “for the children.”
Nom I think we should start a website with the dumb things teachers ask students to do. Even though I’ll have a while before I could start contributing content
Nom,
I was at a party and got talking to this woman who spoke with poor grammar. It turned out that she was an english teacher. I do not believe that she ever heard of the subjunctive case let alone learned how to use it.
“Moving clumsily, with poor coordination”
Ahh, that explains the Obama administration.
Painhurtz,
Ok I said I wasnt going to go into detailsm but buckle up. In IEP, reading teacher admitted that he is reading at grade level but…..he wasn’t post it noting much at all. In fact, he would read the short story once without doing any post it’s THEN he wanted, gasp, to REREAD the story to do his notes…..and this is a problem. I thought, wow, smart kid. Again, they want time savers.
My parents never helped me with homework, actually most nights they prevented me from doing homework as I had a job and chores to do at home and they could care less if homework got done. They also never paid for college and charged me rent during school. All four kids in my parents have at least a college degree. Same for my wife who worked full time 40 hours a week to pay for college. I think parents should be less involved like back when I was a kid, other than taking the belt out now and then when an F showed up on report card.
I have one kid who has none of my gene pool, she considers it a failure to come in second place in advanced placement classes. She is like that old Nike ad, there is a name for people who come in second, it is called Loser.
Generally girls are much better students than boys. They are smarter. Men dont
t really mature till they are 30. Men usually do better at work mainly cause since we don’t start using out brains till around 35 are minds are very fresh at work between 35 and 50 peak earning years. Women have prety much wore out their brains by 40.
JJ
You have to cut me some slack as you are the anomaly, and an entertaining one at that, however I think that if I were to apply the Mrs. JJ approach to parenting, I would end up with a lifetime of weekend visits to Rikers.
Is IEP some type of code for Sweathogs?
Although my Mom refused to help pay for school or check homework she was a huge supporter of school. I recall once my gf at time got a job in a resturant in Colorado for summer in a resort and she wanted me to go with her. My Mom feared if I did bartending out west I would never finish school and drop out like my GF who never even went to college. I asked if I could go she said if you go you take nothing from this house except clothes on your back and you are never to return or call here again as you will be disowned. If things go wrong with GF you are out on the street. I decided not to go. Sadly she gave me same speech when I was going to grad school part time when I wanted to quit. I was like seriously I get disowned for droping out of grad school, she said yes. Meanwhile my sister droped out of her PhD program and did not get disowned and I got well she drives me to my doctors appointments and cabs are expensive.
Barbara says:
November 21, 2011 at 4:50 pm
JJ
You have to cut me some slack as you are the anomaly, and an entertaining one at that, however I think that if I were to apply the Mrs. JJ approach to parenting, I would end up with a lifetime of weekend visits to Rikers.
[81] JJ
There may be a few comorbidities there, but I doubt Asperger’s is one of them.
[96] JJ
Individualized Education Program.
And Barbs, if you ever thought that teachers and case workers simply cut and paste, well, there’s a app for that.
http://iepgoals.net/
JJ, its a legal thing, and one that doesn’t really compute in your world.
I always stick to what I know. So I’ll practice law and you service the groupies.
[92] shore
“‘Moving clumsily, with poor coordination’
Ahh, that explains the Obama administration.”
Not just that, but they are inable to relate socially, and often seem to ignore the input of those around them. This is also called “little professor syndrome”
Yes, very much like the Obama Administration.
I have a 6 year old girl in first grade. She’s straight genious. Addition and subtraction up to 100. Can solve for X using simple equations. Is in her third year of learning Mandarin and has finally turned the corner in conversation. I know that I’m blessed.
Fighting the urge not skip a few grade levels, any experience with that?
Looking at the first eight grades worth of curriculum, I don’t see the point of spending more than 4-5 years on them.
How bad can it be to attend a super small, private and selective HS at say age 10 or 11?
Eraser head now on CNBC explaining how he will force financial sanctions on Iran. He’s such a moron.
Make money, things change for girls dramatically at 13, why subject her to that nightmare at 9 or 10? And it is a nightmare.
You just described the five year old girl in my town whose parents own the chinese take out resturant and she is alway there. I am convinced Mandarian is a fraud. I think Chinese people just go Wing Wong Ching Chong or whatever when us oval eye folks are around and as soon as we leave they speak English. Good way to get us people to stop bothering them. Learning Manderian is like learning Vulcan, nice to know and looks good on resume.
make money says:
November 21, 2011 at 5:11 pm
I have a 6 year old girl in first grade. She’s straight genious. Addition and subtraction up to 100. Can solve for X using simple equations. Is in her third year of learning Mandarin and has finally turned the corner in conversation. I know that I’m blessed.
Fighting the urge not skip a few grade levels, any experience with that?
Looking at the first eight grades worth of curriculum, I don’t see the point of spending more than 4-5 years on them.
How bad can it be to attend a super small, private and selective HS at say age 10 or 11?
JJ [105],
What language do you prefer your kids learn? Russian?
Cue RE-50.5 and what is wrong with English, rock ribbed Americans blah, blah blah in 3..2..
[102] Make – no direct experience with that, but I know a few people (met them later in life) who skipped grades like that, and for most of them it appears to have done more harm than good.
Instead of pushing her forward and making her the runt of the class full of older kids, maybe try to find ways to keep her interested and challenged with activities outside of her classroom.
They grow up quickly enough as it is.
“Who’s our Scout down in Asbury ??”
Will give you heads-up if I see/hear anything.
Music was really loud this past Sat. at Wonder Bar. Thought he was there so I got out of bed at midnight to go check it out, false alarm.
Heading to Miami for turkey.
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
(the juiciest and most moist turkey I’ve ever had in my life was deep-fried in beer)
Happy[108],
That’s exactly why she’s still in first grade. I also don’t want to hold her back either. Just think how much better someone like JJ would be if they received their MBA at from an A list school at age 21. He’d be running PIMPCO by the time he’s 33 all while still being single and banging palin and Bachman while their husbands where whacking each other off.
Spoke to a Ph.D guy who was against it adamantly at first but after she spent a few hours with him, he’s not saying he was wrong but is not opposed to it either. Says he doesn’t want his opinion to sway my decision.
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Make: It is not an intelligence thing; it is a maturity and social development thing. A very fine line; if she is a savant, then you shouldn’t stand in her way, but if she is more likely a brilliant main stream student, then damaging her confidence will work against her in the long run. As you know, most of life is having some sac in conjunction with firing synapses…..
make money says:
November 21, 2011 at 5:11 pm
I have a 6 year old girl in first grade. She’s straight genious. Addition and subtraction up to 100. Can solve for X using simple equations. Is in her third year of learning Mandarin and has finally turned the corner in conversation. I know that I’m blessed.
Fighting the urge not skip a few grade levels, any experience with that?
Looking at the first eight grades worth of curriculum, I don’t see the point of spending more than 4-5 years on them.
How bad can it be to attend a super small, private and selective HS at say age 10 or 11?
“PIMPCO”
Well played :-)
make: don’t take the word of some guy; if you are wondering, then test her and find out…..
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115 Chifi-
Are you talking about my daughter’s Good Food Jobs website? How did you find out about that?
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pain (76)-
Teach your kids to fight the power and not give an inch to these leeches. If you can teach your kids to view public school as intellectual combat, they can come through it OK.
jj (94)-
More pearls of wisdom, from one of WS’ best and brightest:
“Women have prety much wore out their brains by 40.”
Can someone Google and post a picture of a “wore-out” brain here?
make (102)-
I skipped a couple of grades. It took me until about the age of 35 to get over all the unintended crap that flowed from that. Also wasn’t too smart of me of my parents to launch me headfirst into one of the most beer-soaked colleges in the US three weeks after I turned 16. Fortunately, I don’t remember most of those four years.
Your kid’s development is way more than just intellectual. The pain in skipping grades comes from the social/physiological stress of being “behind”.
make (103)-
That’s an insult to morons.
make money, daughter
You can get tons of excellent enrichment programs (beginning at the 2nd grade level), and a few smart friends for life for her through Johns Hopkins’ Center for Talented Youth (http://cty.jhu.edu/ts/index.html). By the 10th grade she’ll strangle you if you suggest she does something else instead of going to their Summer session.
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