A Two-Parter from Bloomberg (Hat tip Chi!):
Why Renters Rule U.S. Housing Market (Part 1): A. Gary Shilling
The collapse in housing and the 33 percent plunge in house prices since 2006 are favoring renting over homeownership. This trend will dominate the housing market for the next four or five years, and put additional pressure on a weak economy.
Policy makers in Washington continue to have a soft spot for homeownership. Many recent government actions can be viewed as attempts to keep people in their homes, even owners who clearly can’t afford them. In addition to specific plans such as the Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP, and the Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, the Obama administration is trying to revive the moribund housing sector by encouraging mortgage lenders and servicers to refinance loans at lower rates.
Why Renters Rule U.S. Housing Market (Part 2): A. Gary Shilling
In making my case for continued housing weakness, I’ve emphasized the negative effect of excess inventories on house sales, prices, new construction and just about every other aspect of residential real estate.
In housing, as in every goods-producing sector, excess inventories are the mortal enemy of prices. Lower prices are needed to unload surplus inventory, yet they also lead to the creation of more inventory by anxious sellers. The plight of house sellers and the reluctance of buyers are made worse by the realization that house prices can fall, and are falling for the first time in 70 years.
There are about 2 million excess housing units in the U.S., over and above normal inventory working levels. Before the housing collapse began in 2006, housing starts and completions were volatile but averaged about 1.5 million per year. So a 2 million excess is much more than the previous annual average build.
Furthermore, that excess is rising as homeownership declines as a result of foreclosures, unemployment, inability to meet mortgage standards or reluctance to own a depreciating asset.
Good Morning New Jersey
Saw part 3 this morning too:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-24/why-renters-rule-housing-market-part-3-commentary-by-a-gary-shilling.html
Stan Humphries says we’re in for a positive spring selling season.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/86897242/
I know, I know, they always say that.
Renters rule!
Brain heard that song so many times. Granted one spring it will turn so sooner or later after calling a positive every year for how long now these guys will be right.
from previous thread:
Shore,
Lots of choices in Key West. Here are a few:
Michaels just off of Southard St for steaks, seafood, salads and pasta
Santiago’s Bodega on Petronia St for tapas. A friend and former neighbor opened Vino’s wine bar on Duval last year which is quite popular. Kellys on Caroline St has a nice outdoor bar with lots of shade makes an excellent key lime margarita. Louies Afterdeck on Waddel St is a great place for a drink with an awesome view. I don’t recommend Louies Restaurant as it is not consistently excellent.
Shore Guy says:
February 24, 2012 at 12:14 am
Nj escapee ,
I need a recommendation for a place to get a great meal in KW as well as a place or two that know how to mix a drink well.. Do you have any thoughts ?
Grim was rather surprised at the big spike in Sussex County you shared yesterday.
I know so many people living in homes for years not paying mortgage 0thers listed at a lose. I can not see how this supports a healthy market, by June I will be eating crow or vindicated.
Plume, I’m not around this weekend. ODP friendlies in Virginia. Back on Monday.
Maybe Snookimania will have subsided by then. Never shilled here before, but anyone who wants to hit Jersey Wine & Spirits FB page and leave a heartwarming sentiment for those two orange skanks is invited to do so.
grim: no hat tip?……….I live for hat-tip!????? :(
Shilling says:
“The plight of house sellers and the reluctance of buyers are made worse by the realization that house prices can fall, and are falling for the first time in 70 years.”
Was he living in a cave in the early 90’s?
Any of the Vegas experts here recommend a good steak place? We usually go to either Golden Steer or Smith & Wollensky but if someone has a rec they’d like to pass on………
Caves also appreciated at a brisk pace from 7452 BC through 10,000 BC, when they crashed hard as wall paintings fell out of favor and even Neanderthals wanted more windows and natural light. Now, with energy prices rising, RE agents expect a brisk spring cave season. Buy now oe be stuck on the surface forever.
I challenge you to a banjo duel sir.
5.Mikeinwaiting says:
February 24, 2012 at 7:51 am
Brain heard that song so many times. Granted one spring it will turn so sooner or later after calling a positive every year for how long now these guys will be right.
Good one Brain, I accept! By the way we do a hinterland GTG at Krogh’s or Mohawk House 2-3 times a year as you are close I hope you will attend.
Shore on a roll this morn.
Maybe. I grew up in Sparta so, every time I go there it’s like a high school reunion for me. The Otmeal Stout is outstanding there though. It should come with a warning label.
14.Mikeinwaiting says:
February 24, 2012 at 8:49 am
Good one Brain, I accept! By the way we do a hinterland GTG at Krogh’s or Mohawk House 2-3 times a year as you are close I hope you will attend.
I was at Mohawk house last weekend too. Crazy huge selection of beers on tap. They had bagpipes and drums guys there dressed in Morris county police shirts w/ kilts. Marching around the bar while I was drinking a pint. Quite a spectacle. Sh1t nearly brought a tear to my eye…..
I hate that valet parking crap though.
14.Mikeinwaiting says:
February 24, 2012 at 8:49 am
Good one Brain, I accept! By the way we do a hinterland GTG at Krogh’s or Mohawk House 2-3 times a year as you are close I hope you will attend.
#7 Mike: A rise in Bergen Co too, though not as large as Sussex, and yet I am seeing asking and closed prices in my area at 2002 and 03 levels, even late 90’s in some cases.
#10 Maybe he was not born in the 90’s!! Amazing to me though how so many people forget that period. And there was no outcry than about saving the housing market or keeping people in their homes. I guess we were a tougher breed back than.
I wonder if it’s first time buyers coming back into the market in Sussex County. Taxes are still doable in some towns and cost of living is much less then other counties. A lot of people commute to jobs in office parks in Bergen/Morris/Essex counties from there. There are also a bunch of Bus routes Lakeland does to NYC. Not sure how long that takes during rush hour. Maybe an hour and a half. I’ll find out on Tuesday. Company I’m working for now wants me to go to their offices in Rockafeller center on Tuesday cause work is piling up and they’re short staffed over there.
18.3B says:
February 24, 2012 at 9:13 am
#7 Mike: A rise in Bergen Co too, though not as large as Sussex, and yet I am seeing asking and closed prices in my area at 2002 and 03 levels, even late 90′s in some cases.
Nom,
Floating Nompound.
Shore,
Would satisfy your your wanderlust as well.
http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/your-very-own-floating-bondvillain-lair-for-680-million-02242012.html
#19….lol, i remember, see my handle. I think i read avreport, possibly by shiller, in fortune mag back in early 90s where they laid out the demographic reasons that housing would experience long term downward pressures.
3b 19 about same here maybe a bit worse there are always outliers on both sides of the pricing curve..
#22 1987: My brothers’ condo purchased in 1988 in a tony Westchester town purchase price 120K, sales price 4 years later 40k.
My first house paid 180k in 87, if I sold it when i wanted to, 130k, so stayed and paid and sold it in 97 for the same price, not including the significant improvements that were put into it. Men were men back than!!!
Brain 16 I’ll let you know , not due for a while just had one before you arrived here.
“I hate that valet parking crap though.” Ditto.
The plight of house sellers and the reluctance of buyers are made worse by the realization that house prices can fall, and are falling for the first time in 70 years.
Furthermore, excess is rising as homeownership declines as a result of foreclosures, unemployment, inability to meet mortgage standards or reluctance to own a depreciating asset.
Sellers, it’s your move.
BTW, the Oblama energy policy: It’s the republicans fault.
It doesn’t really matter either way, I suppose. I threw in the towel a while ago. You want this mope for another term, you got him. Not a friend on the hill, not a plan that has worked, not an idea that has promise nor a strategy for growth. The debate (deflection) is now about contracepti0n as the economy struggles and the powder keg in the Middle East continues to build. He got elected and handed the keys to the lunatics on the left. I wonder what type of misery he’ll embrace for the next four years?
#24…yep..was in my own depression for 10 yearsvtrying to dig out, we did not have gary to whine for us!
WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of new U.S. homes dipped in January but only after the government said the final quarter of 2011 was stronger than first estimated (Why, of course, it was unexpected! LOL!).
Higher sales at the end of last year should bolster the view that the housing market is starting to revive (Hurry, bring your checkbook! This charmer won’t last!).
#29 gary: There is only one thing left for you to do, go out an buy in that blue ribbony train town!!!
Gary (29):
The below statement is at a minimum intellectually dishonest or a total lie.
“Higher sales at the end of last year should bolster the view that the housing market is starting to revive”
Let’s go to the charts and see that improvement!
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/new-home-sales-in-january-at-321000.html
3b [30],
What would happen if I went to a lender and told them I need a loan but I’m only a temp worker? ;)
All Hype [31],
So, the only thing we can conclude is, that it’s… All Hype? ;)
[27] gary
I said sometime ago on this board that the energy policy of the left is actually 4 higher prices. In order to promote conservation and alternative energies you need higher prices to drive that market.
And if you look at the actions taken to date, you can clearly see that the president is trying to maintain prices within a range that is steadily rising. While you can get to the same place with gas taxes, those are politically unpopular. So you rely on executive action to influence price and supply.
I said some time back that we would see higher energy prices. I am not surprised.
12 – Post of the day
Nom [34],
Alternative energies: Do you mean like Solyndra, Horizon Wind Energy, the Shepherd Flat project and Idaho Winds? Or what about biofuel being produced through a contract with Dynamic Fuels, a partnership of three firms including Solazyme which previously received $27.7 million from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (stimulus money)? What about A Chevy Volt with a $41,000 sticker price? U.S. taxpayers will kick in about $3,000,000,000 in federal and state loans, rebates, grants and tax credits towards Volt production.
It’s all continuing to turn to shit…one little increment at a time.
Solar and wind is a complete waste of time. Nuclear…what’s the problem?
Front page article in Wall Street Journal today about how all these invented jobs regarding alternative energy are phony. They build all these farms and plants but no one works there.
A truck driver says he worked at one for six weeks and wants to know if he’s part of the count.
#32 gary: I am sure it will not be a problem.
$5 Gasoline (some places in Fla apparently already $6.00!!!) How does this affect our stellar recovery!!! Just asking.
The Stimulus was a helicopter stunt. That money was tossed around by congressmen like it was Christmas. I remember them visiting Rutgers jumping from department to department. 15 million for you…and 10 million for you. It was a 15 minute meeting where they verbally asked, “what will you spend it on?” No grant writing, no approval. Definitely no oversight to make sure it actually got spent the way they said it would. I’m simply amazed at how people with political connections are able to fleece the system for public money with ease.
that’s crazy. it’s been a while since I had to fill up. guess I’ll find out soon.
3B says:
February 24, 2012 at 11:19 am
$5 Gasoline (some places in Fla apparently already $6.00!!!) How does this affect our stellar recovery!!! Just asking.
“Solar and wind is a complete waste of time”
Nuclear is fine. But, neiter it nor any other single energy source is “THE” solution. I doubt that battery-operated cars are the longterm solution as, even with a 300 mile range, the recharge time makes battery-operated vehicles too limited for universal usage.
Hydrogen works well for vehicles and we can fill them like we do now. We can use Wind and solar to create hydrogen locally for use in vehicles. We can use wind and solar to crete hydrogen to power fuel cells for houses as well.
Energy into water from wind and solar –> hydrogen and oxygen –> hydrogen and oxygen plus catalyst —> energy and water –> energy into water from wind and solar –> hydrogen and oxygen –>hydrogen and oxygen plus catalyst —> energy and water –> energy into water from wind and solar …
No, no single source will ever be the solution. But when we ban the best alternative, it shouldn’t be surprising to us that energy prices are high.
F^ck that sh!t.
“Below is some more hard data where you won’t find the much anticipated, ‘any minute now’, housing recovery. While the first chart shows the annualized new home sales sold data, which came in at meaningless 321K in January on expectations of 315K, and a meaningless drop from an upward revised 324K, all this shows is that 3 years after the “recovery”, there is zero improvement in housing. In non-SAARed terms, there were just 22K homes sold in January. Naturally, this is to be expected because as long as the government continues to prevent true price discovery, there will be no real housing market. Which is just what the second chart shows: Completed houses for sale at the end of period dropped to 57K – this is the lowest point in the 40 years of this data series. Said otherwise nobody has any hopes that there will be a pick up in housing demand. And why should they – after all as the third and final chart shows, shadow inventory is at a record, and about to be unleashed on the market at bargain basement prices courtesy of the Robo-settlement, which in turn will drag down prevailing prices far, far lower everywhere. Welcome to the latest housing non-recovery.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/welcome-housing-non-recovery-three-simple-charts
Why the Federal Reserve can’t fix housing
Housing is still one of the biggest drags on U.S. economic growth, but don’t look to the Federal Reserve for help. The central bank may have few tools left to fix it. That’s the basic hypothesis of a paper top economists presented to a room full of monetary policy elites in Manhattan Friday.
…Traditionally, the Fed could aid the housing market during tough times, by lowering its key interest rate and thereby lowering mortgage rates. But the Fed’s interest rate is already near zero and mortgage rates are already at record lows — and yet the housing market remains in a slump. Could the Fed be out of bullets when it comes to this key part of the American economy?
More at: http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/23/news/economy/federal_reserve_housing/index.htm
#47 The housing market is fixing itself, by continuing price declines. Lower prices for housing means more money for new owners to spend elsewhere, thereby stimulating our consumer driven economy. The ones get hurt hurt by buying at the peak, or spending all of their equity, well they get hurt.
Ben,
I am not opposed to nuclear power; I have spent a fair bit of time around reactors. I just don’t believe that it is THE solution to our energy shortage.
.
RE is only going down in Jersey City. Since Snooki and JWow moved in, people have been seen fleeing the area. Liquor sales are up 300% though as are sales of antibiotics used to cure UTI’s and VD.
46.There Went Meat says:
February 24, 2012 at 11:38 am
F^ck that sh!t.
“Below is some more hard data where you won’t find the much anticipated, ‘any minute now’, housing recovery.
#50 Brian: Aren’t those two getting a little old for all that; just saying.
“The housing market is fixing itself, by continuing price declines.”
Bing! Bing! Bing! Carol Merrill, show him what he has won.
thanks for share!
I wish there was some easy way to convert my truck to use CNG. I’d put a filling station in my garage.
I hear in Colombia, they have a version of my truck that is dual fuel.
http://www.iangv.org/tools-resources/oem-vehicle-directory/Vehicles-by-Type/Light-Commercial/Nissan-Frontier-4×4-Bi%252Dfuel/details.html
I wish they would sell stuff like that here. Nothing like a competing product to aid in controlling a monopoly on fuel eh?
In the meantime, I’ll just be riding the motorcycle to work more this summer. Maybe a few work from home days too…that ought to offset it.
43.njescapee says:
February 24, 2012 at 11:23 am
that’s crazy. it’s been a while since I had to fill up. guess I’ll find out soon.
3B says:
February 24, 2012 at 11:19 am
$5 Gasoline (some places in Fla apparently already $6.00!!!) How does this affect our stellar recovery!!! Just asking.
“The housing market is fixing itself, by continuing price declines.”
Do you all realize the decline required in our area to offset the decoupled property taxes? The Northern NJ/NY area is about to experience pain like never before.
ulqin albani: check out this linsanity….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6zKzDFOwF8
“The Northern NJ/NY area is about to experience pain like never before.”
After what Grim posted the other day about the interesting decor of the attic in that one house (his uncles?), perhaps added pain is just a selling point for the NY/NJ Region.
#62 Shore: Thank you, thank you. I will take the Laz-y Boy recliner, and the living room set from Broyhill.
Oh and except for here, why do I always feel like I am talking to myself?? Just asking.
The end is nigh! (Chi Fi edition)
http://mobile.nj.com/advnj/db_96600/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=pRAviJG6
We discussed this awhile ago
PORT TOWNSEND, Wash. (MarketWatch) — A pipeline from Alberta’s oil sands to the British Columbia coast already exists. It’s been “flying under the radar” until now, so to speak. But that’s about to change.
All the media attention had been currently focused much further north, on Enbridge’s /quotes/zigman/20592/quotes/nls/enb ENB -0.16% proposed $5.5 billion Northern Gateway pipeline from Alberta to isolated Kitimat, B.C., where a shipping terminal is to be built. It’s distracted the media and environmentalists until now: Public hearings on Northern Gateway are underway and expected to last for months.
But (Psst., buddy. Keep this quiet, would ya? ) Houston-based Kinder Morgan /quotes/zigman/3811989/quotes/nls/kmi KMI -0.40% has been operating its 600-mile Trans Mountain pipeline from Edmonton to Vancouver’s Burnaby Port for years. Trans Mountain carries only 300,000 barrels per day, a tiny percentage of Alberta crude. Now Kinder Morgan has announced it’s lined up enough shippers to double the pipeline’s capacity. It’ll decide by the end of March whether to go ahead with the $3.8 billion expansion — and face a new set of regulatory and public hurdles.
This proposed pipeline expansion is no March madness; in fact, a Trans Mountain “doubling” announcement from Kinder seems like a much surer bet next month than any NCAA basketball favorite.
Unnoticed
The Kinder pipeline, which recently allowed the first tanker of bitumen crude to be shipped to China, has gone largely unnoticed during the Northern Gateway media furor. But that will change, no doubt. The prospect of it doubling its capacity to 600,000 barrels a day has already caught the attention of the usual suspects.
Still, Ian Anderson, head of Kinder’s Canadian division, says the company “looks forward” to hearing from First Nations tribes and local stakeholders (i.e., enviros) about the proposed Trans Mountain expansion. (Yeah, sure). In the truest Canadian governmental tradition, there will be countless hearings if Kinder Morgan, as expected, decides to go ahead with its plans to double the pipeline’s capacity.
Most of the crude that’s shipped in the existing Trans Mountain pipeline is shipped to — and refined in — California. A map of Trans Mountain can be found
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/canadian-oils-quiet-pipeline-to-the-west-2012-02-23
3b (51)-
Skank is forever.
Fabius Maximus,
At age 24, she was earning more for a few hours work than I was for an entire months of work, despite not ever accomplishing a single thing. Any time this girl needs money, she just has to garner some sort of publicity and she gets it. Isn’t this the American dream? Any worthless nobody can become rich.
We have an abundant resource of natural gas.Every emerging market is using LNG (liquified Natural Gas)What is taking so long to put this on the market?Are we protecting our Oil Producing friends?Without oil they have nothing and this will destabilized the world and their economies.
Brian you and I have the same truck! Wish they would just bring it back in that size with a diesel. they still make it oversees and it gets over 30mpg with the diesel
American dream, in ten years they’ll find her dead, in a bathtub full of gravy and disco fries, dead from a meth overdose.
Maybe Jersey can fly the flags half mast for her.
Dammit, bathtub full of self tanner would have been funnier.
Which sets the worse imagery, face up or down?
Alaska’s North Slope shales may hold as much as 80 trillion cubic feet of gas, or more than half the highest estimate for the Marcellus formation, and as much as 2 billion barrels of oil, the U.S. Geological Survey said
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-24/n-alaska-may-hold-80t-cubic-feet-of-shale-gas.html
JWWow doesn’t do anythig for you Meat? She doesn’t get the juices flowing at all?
http://www.inflexwetrust.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/jwoww.jpg
http://cdn.crushable.com/files/2011/02/jwoww-sexy-pics-02182011-19.jpg
61.There Went Meat says:
February 24, 2012 at 12:28 pm
3b (51)-
Skank is forever.
I had the extended cab D21 Hardbody pickup 4×4 4cyl manual for many years. I took it offroad on the muddy fire trails in Vernon near the resivoir many times. Covered it in mud. Good times. I was psyched when they finally brought the 4 door. Amazingly, I think I get better gas mileage with the 6cyl. Still sucks fossils though.
64.Painhrtz – I ain’t dead yet says:
February 24, 2012 at 12:36 pm
Brian you and I have the same truck! Wish they would just bring it back in that size with a diesel. they still make it oversees and it gets over 30mpg with the diesel
The right is blocking the modernization of our infrastracture.Our rail is the best economic way to transport goods.I don’t see where this administration is for high cost of fuel
http://t4america.org/blog/2009/06/03/breaking-down-the-blueprint-energy-efficiency-and-energy-security/
Trucks currently use 27 gallons of fuel for each ton of freight moved from coast to coast; at the same time, bringing the same ton of freight buy rail only uses seven gallons of fuel. And as you may have seen in their commercials for freightrailworks.org, 1 gallon of gasoline can move a ton of freight 436 miles by rail. Transferring a mere 10 percent of freight currently moved by truck to our railways would save more than one billion gallons of fuel per year.
Gasoline prices by state and Gasoline % of income by state:
http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/gas_prices_by_state/?source=yahoo_hosted
Click on the blue tab to see % of income. In Mississippi they spend 12% of their income on gasoline.
#27 gary,
You actualy get to watch 4/8 more years of the GOP implosion.
Fabius [73],
Forget about the GOP. The Immaculated One was going to deliver us from evil. I want to see a list of his achievements and what he intends to do for the next four years.
#17 Brian/Mike
You and your fancy Oatmeal stout. I’m more Pub 199 for a pitcher of Yingling to wash down the steak and lobster.
I lived in Mt Arlington for a year and I would not wish that comute down Rt80 on anyone. You only caught a break when the daily car wreck was at Junction 28. I lost count how many times I watched the MedEvac chopper land at the Rockaway mall exit.
yo [63]
There is no way to use LNG as a fuel for the small vehicles. It is a cryogenic liquid which means you either are constantly venting some methane when the engine is not running, or have to have an elaborate cryogenic chiller/condenser that would costs 5x of your car’s worth, and spend serious amount of energy to run. Compressed gas is a different story – there, the problem is mostly infrastructure, the investment in CNG station is several times the one into a regular gas station plus it has to sit on a natgas pipeline, plus you can’t have self-serve anywhere, plus you have to pay decent wage to the jockeys otherwise you get people to dumb not to have the station accidentally blown up. Also, you need more of them as connection of the high pressure gas line to the car tank requires more time than staffing a nozzle into the hole. Plus, you need to fill up twice as frequently. T. Boone Pickens’ idea of switching the big rigs to natgas was very good, though. An alternative for the cars is the use of M85 (mix of 85% methanol and 15% regular gas); methanol is made from the natural gas. However, large part of U.S. methanol industry had been sold for scrap in 1990s-2000s, and it wasn’t large enough to start with; costs a fortune in capital to rebuild, and very few cars can use M85, you need multiple engine/tank/fuel lines changes.
The NYT did some heavy-duty he said/she said reporting on the issue of gas prices and energy production. It devoted an article to President Obama’s efforts to counter Republican complaints about high gas prices.
The article told readers:
“The president said that the United States is producing more oil now than at any time during the last eight years, with a record number of rigs pumping.”
President Obama did not just say this, it also happens to be true. There are reasons that people may not be happy that the United States is producing more oil (anyone hear of global warming?), but it happens to be true.
The article then went on to tell readers that:
“But Mr. Obama warned that no amount of domestic production could offset the broader forces driving up gas prices, chief among them Middle East instability and the ravenous energy appetite of China, which he said added 10 million cars in 2010.”
This is also a statement that can be verified. The United States currently produced around 6 million barrels a day. The world market for oil is a bit less than 90 million barrels a day.
It is the world market that determines prices, not domestic production. We’re going to say that a few more times just in case any reporters are reading this.
It is the world market that determines prices, not domestic production. It is the world market that determines prices, not domestic production. It is the world market that determines prices, not domestic production.
The point is that we can only affect the price of gas in the United States if we can affect world prices. See, if we had lower prices in the United States than the rest of the world, oil companies like Exxon Mobil and British Petroleum would export oil from the United States to the rest of the world.
This is known as “capitalism.” Companies try to make as much money as possible, which means that you sell your products where they can get the highest price. This means that the price of oil in the United States can only fall if the price of oil in the world also falls.
Okay, so now let’s get back to domestic production. Suppose we drill everywhere — underneath Yellowstone, the Capitol building, your backyard and favorite place of worship. Let’s say we can increase domestic production by 2 million barrels a day, or roughly one third. This would increase the world supply by approximately 2.2 percent.
Under normal assumptions of elasticity of supply and demand, this would lead to a drop in prices of around 6 percent. That might be nice, but it won’t get us from $4.00 a gallon gas to Newt Gingrich’s $2 a gallon.
Furthermore, we will not be able to sustain this higher pace of production for long. The Energy Information Agency estimates that total U.S. reserves are around 20 billion barrels of oil. At the current production rate of roughly 6 million barrels a day, this stock will last around 10 years. If we upped production to 8 million barrels a day then we have around 7 years supply. That would mean that production would have to slow sharply before the end of President Drill Everywhere’s second term.
In short, President Obama was making assertions about gas prices and energy that are true and can be proven. The NYT obviously assumed that readers have more time than its reporter to go to the web and look these things up, but that may not always be true.
Dean Baker
Saw lots of diesels in Poland that were converted to run on propane.
If you pulled into a filling station and asked for Gas (Gaz), you would get propane and not Gasoline (Petrol).
This country nor the world needs to do anything to make “alternative” energy viable. Let’s keep using oil and whatever other fossil fuels (any forms of energy for that matter) and when peak oil starts to causes shortages, oil prices will rise on their own, making other forms of energy economically advantageous.
But in the meantime, yes, can we repeal the ridiculous regulations preventing the use of some of the more common forms of energy we have now.
Plus, I’d be remiss not to mention, can the Federal Reserve PLEASE stop driving down the dollar driving up the price of oil, et al. Very surprised no one mentioned that yet.
Cobbler,
Most of asia is using LPG , CNG and LNG. You may be right on your assumptions but the third world countries are very ahead of us in using Natural Gas.There is no reason why we can not better the tech when we produce Nat gas.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_vehicle
Meanwhile:http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/24/disturbances-prompt-cancellations-of-some-nike-releases/?hpt=hp_t3
Overthinker. You can install a CNG compressor in your house today. If it’s a commuter vehicle, who needs a filling station?
Step 1. install Phill:
http://www.autoobserver.com/2011/03/brc-fuelmaker-again-selling-phill-home-cng-fuel-station.html
Step 2. buy a CNG vehilce or convert your current one.
Problem with this step is there isn’t a lot of CNG vehicles available in the US nor are their many companies doing conversions. It’s certainly possible to make one and use one though. Honda Civic CNG comes to mind.
http://www.ewsews.com/cngprices.html
Step 3.
Somehow dig myself out of my mortgage debt and buy myself one of these from OCC:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4_Cwdr94GY
76.cobbler says:
February 24, 2012 at 2:03 pm
yo [63]
There is no way to use LNG as a fuel for the small vehicles. It is a cryogenic liquid which means you either are constantly venting some methane when the engine is not running, or have to have an elaborate cryogenic chiller/condenser that would costs 5x of your car’s worth, and spend serious amount of energy to run. Compressed gas is a different story – there, the problem is mostly infrastructure, the investment in CNG station is several times the one into a regular gas station plus it has to sit on a natgas pipeline, plus you can’t have self-serve anywhere, plus you have to pay decent wage to the jockeys otherwise you get people to dumb not to have the station accidentally blown up. Also, you need more of them as connection of the high pressure gas line to the car tank requires more time than staffing a nozzle into the hole. Plus, you need to fill up twice as frequently. T. Boone Pickens’ idea of switching the big rigs to natgas was very good, though. An alternative for the cars is the use of M85 (mix of 85% methanol and 15% regular gas); methanol is made from the natural gas. However, large part of U.S. methanol industry had been sold for scrap in 1990s-2000s, and it wasn’t large enough to start with; costs a fortune in capital to rebuild, and very few cars can use M85, you need multiple engine/tank/fuel lines changes.
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/24/disturbances-prompt-cancellations-of-some-nike-releases/?hpt=hp_t3
Fab (75) – I have yet to see a steak that was edible come from the Pub 199 kitchen. Clams only at that joint.
Joyce,
Increase in oil price is world wide.When the dollar is down it does not mean the US is paying more in oil than Japan.Ther are other factors,although the value of the dollar is one factor but it is small.When an oil producer losses money due to the price of the dollar it does not adjust the price to make up for it.The market determines the price.
yo
oil is priced soley in US$ (well 100% until very recently) but it still overwhelming prices in dollars so of course it is worldwide
Fabius Maximus 75 I only drink Scotch Brain is the beer guy. On the commute from Vernon where I am I agree it is a nightmare heading to & down 80, Rte 23 is not quite as bad. Therefore my premise that if gas hits over 4 $ this spring it will kill home sales up here. All the money you save on somewhat lower taxes (for Jersey!) goes in the gas tank. We do not have enough organic jobs to fill all the housing. Most people commute some to NYC if you can believe it, I went down to Wayne for 10 years that was bad enough.
#74 gary
Is that like a Monty Pythons “What have the Romans ever done for us?”
For me he has achived a lot and its more impressive given the congress he had to work with. Some highlights for me:
OBL
Ending Iraq
Coverage for pre existing conditions
Stabilizing the economic train wreck.
Two good SCOTUS picks that pput Harriet Mires in perspective.
yo[80]
LPG vehicle is 100% feasible, but the cost of the fuel per mile is about the same as gasoline if you subtract federal and state gas taxes – ask anyone who uses propane to heat his house.
LNG is not feasible for the light vehicle unless you are willing to have a pilot light somewhere in your car burning all the time to get rid of the “extra” methane. Also, good luck insuring it. For CNG, in India, etc. they mostly use low-pressure CNG where the cylinder lasts for 30-40 kilometers of city driving; I don’t think there is a lot of interest for such thing here other than for delivery trucks. I outlined the problems of more efficient high-pressure CNG in the message above.
#76 cobbler
LPG is big in Europpe and is a fairly cheap conversion. Volvo had it as a factory option in the 80s
yo,
We’ve commented on each other’s posts regarding inflation a few times in the past, and we will never convince one another.
The medium of exchange is one-half of every transaction. There are many things that can change the demand/supply dynamic affecting price levels, however inflation will ALWAYS change the demand/supply of the currency. My proof is the past 99 years. Even further back as central banking did not start with the FED.
Since the 70’s (maybe the 80’s) inflation has stopped leaking into wages/salaries. Note that wage/salary inflation prior to that still has never kept pace the overall cost of living. (the previous two sentences refer to the upper middle class, middle class, and lower/poor class… the connected/uber rich’s income always beats inflation as that it was the system is designed to do!) Inflation is mere transfer of wealth of purchasing power upward. That’s why I cringe when someone says to the effect, (they might even admit inflation is not all great but) ‘we can get rid of some of this debt in real terms with some inflation.’ Absolutely nuts.
It’s compounded when governments try to redistribute it via taxes, only making it worse. We all know the rich avoid these taxes and they fall on the middle class. Plus the majority of the govt expenditures goes to their favored industries anyway. The entire system is designed for this; it’s working just fine.
(someone above said why didn’t we care about housing in the 1980’s) Bernake is not trying to save housing, just the banks. Look at the actions through the proper lense and it all makes sense.
wow, sorry for the rant… long day, long week…
Joyce,
If world market can only handle $150/barrel before economies start collapsing and demand goes down,that is where the price will stop it does not matter if the dollar is very strong.Right now it is Iran and the strengtening economy of the EM and the US, expectation of higher demand and shortage of production is what driving prices.DXY could be at 100 right now and prices could still be going up.
fabius [89]
Europe taxes gasoline a lot, and LPG a little – no other economic reason for the conversion.
Joyce,
We can agree to disagree.lol
“We’ve commented on each other’s posts regarding inflation a few times in the past, and we will never convince one another.”
How many people are still serving in Iraq?
The economy is nowhere near stabilized. The stock market is not the economy. And let’s just exclude another ten million or more people from the economy and the unemployment rate will fall even further.
I can’t wait to hear how requiring someone to purchase a product, or face a fine, due to the fact that they’re alive is Constitutional.
Obama and the rest of them are a joke.
87.Fabius Maximus says:
February 24, 2012 at 2:53 pm
#74 gary
Is that like a Monty Pythons “What have the Romans ever done for us?”
For me he has achived a lot and its more impressive given the congress he had to work with. Some highlights for me:
OBL
Ending Iraq
Coverage for pre existing conditions
Stabilizing the economic train wreck.
Two good SCOTUS picks that pput Harriet Mires in perspective.
91
yo,
Please google for a chart of the dollar vs oil from the last 100 years. When oil crashed to high 30’s a barrel in 07/08… a tremendous amount of liquity was removed from the system, that caused a corresponding collapse in a lot of prices.
Fabius [87],
For every policy or idea that this current administration has implemented or proposed, I find myself having to figure out an alternative to mitigate the damage. Whether it’s my career or personal financial planning, I feel like a bottom dweller that’s on a 32 game losing streak. And I find his pessimism towards the U.S. (you know, that country he’s supposedly president of) to be counter-contagious. I guess I’m just not used to the Euro-American style of government yet.
Brian D21 Hardbody pickup 4×4 4cyl manual standard cab was my first new car in 1992 paid 9K for it could go anywhere. My D22 has 255K miles on her I really need a newer truck but everything is so damn big
82 – Frankly, I’m surprised there hasn’t been a stabbing or a shooting yet. I give it another week before some kid is found dead and barefoot.
We are a disgusting people.
The financial messaging service for most international money transfers has told U.S. officials it is prepared to cut off Iran’s central bank, according to people involved in the talks, an action that would be a blow to Iran’s already battered economy.
The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, known as Swift, dispatched its top lawyer to Washington for discussions this week in response to proposed U.S. legislation targeting Swift and its board, whose chairman is Yawar Shah of Citigroup Inc. and deputy chairman is Stephan Zimmermann of UBS AG.
Swift’s general counsel Blanche Petre said the Belgium- based service is prepared to expel Iranian institutions sanctioned by the European Union as well as Iran’s central bank, according to aides to U.S. lawmakers who met with Petre and spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
A spokeswoman for Swift, JoAnn Healy, declined to comment on private meetings involving its officials.
Acting against the Iranian institutions would be “a very serious step, disruptive to the users, but also to the financial community as a whole,” Healy said today in an e-mailed response to questions. “It is a complex situation that needs to take into consideration the implications to the functioning of the global payments system, as well as to the continued flow of humanitarian payments to the Iranian people.”
Going Further
The Obama administration, which has imposed more sanctions on Iran than any nation or past U.S. administration, has expressed wariness about the unintended consequences of expelling all Iranian entities from Swift, according to the aides to lawmakers. Treasury Department and White House officials declined to comment on discussions with Swift and EU authorities.
By including Iran’s central bank, Swift’s proposal goes further than lawmakers or the administration sought, and might roil oil markets on concern that buyers will be unable to pay the second-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for its 2.2 million barrels a day of oil exports.
“This is the financial equivalent of warfare,” Avi Jorisch, a former U.S. Treasury official, said in an interview. “The administration is very concerned about anything that would spike oil markets. Cutting off Iran’s central bank from Swift would do just that, but at same time, it would deal a knockout blow to Iran’s ability to use the international financial system.”
‘Need to Choose’
“We need to choose at this point if we want Iran to get a nuclear bomb or take the chance that oil markets will spike,” he said.
Oil climbed for a seventh day, the longest streak of advances since January 2010, as escalating tension with Iran threatens supplies and on signs of a global economic recovery. Crude oil for April delivery rose $1.80, or 1.7 percent, to $109.63 a barrel at 2:17 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Since a Nov. 8 report by United Nations inspectors that raised questions about Iran’s nuclear program, the U.S. and EU have imposed an increasingly stringent array of economic penalties on Iran to try to force its leaders to make concessions on their nuclear development.
First Expulsion
Iran says its nuclear program is for civilian energy and medical research. Western intelligence agencies say they have evidence suggesting Iran is seeking the capability to make a nuclear bomb.
In its 39 years, Swift has never expelled any institution from the cooperative of 10,000 member banks and organizations in 210 countries. Swift transmits an average of 17 million financial messages a day, facilitating trillions of dollars in cross-border payments, officials said. According to its annual report, 19 Iranian member banks and 25 financial institutions sent and received 2 million messages through Swift in 2010.
Swift authorities said Feb. 17 they were prepared to comply with any new EU regulations instructing them to expel sanctioned Iranian entities. EU officials say regulations for financial messaging services should be ready within weeks. If Swift expels all EU-sanctioned Iranian institutions, the pending U.S. legislation may be amended or shelved, congressional aides said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-24/swift-may-expel-iran-s-central-bank-hindering-oil-payments.html
ben
Regarding nuclear, you must be excited that Obama finally turned the trend:
Chu Visits Site of America’s First New Nuclear Reactor in Three Decades
Just two days after the Department of Energy requested more than $770 million for nuclear energy in 2013, U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu visited the Vogtle nuclear power plant in Waynesboro, Georgia and Oak Ridge National Laboratory to highlight the steps the Obama Administration is taking to restart America’s nuclear industry as part of an all-of-the-above American energy strategy.
New nuclear plants, the increase in drilling, the overabundance of natural gas and the investments in solar and wind…nice to finally have an energy policy.
#96 gary On another note, I find it ironic that after two world wars in Europe, Germany is now calling the shots. Britain is on the outside looking in. Just saying, of course.
Fab your blue is showing, while I won’t crow about team red or blue. How can you be a democrat and not look at Chairman O’s presidency as anything other than an extension of Bush’s with some liberalism sprinkled in. Oh wait Bush had that to see medicare part D, you guys should have been singing his praises. Oh preexisting conditions give me a f*cking break, you know what would fix healthcare in this country tort reform and being able to sell over state lines. that and everbody going to the doctor for the tiniest little discomfort. The great chairman O taking from the productive and giving to the those poor people with pre-existing conditions. Why don’t you ask your children how they like paying for someone else’s insurance.
dude we are f*cked the blue team and the red team sold us out for corporatism, graft and wars. Which rleate back to corporatism and graft.
#Homeboken
It may not be Galaghers, but it is better that a lot of higher end restraunts I have eaten in.
Meat this one is for you
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-debt-gdp-passes-101-global-debt-ponzi-enters-its-final-stages
Raise taxes! And when that doesn’t work, raise them again! And when the rich try to leave the country, arrest them!
My pictures of jwows butt were posted but my comments about cng as altrnatve fuel were moderated. Its all part of the conspiracy against us.
I take my card and I stand in line
To make a buck I work overtime
Dear Sir letters keep coming in the mail
I work my back till it’s racked with pain
The boss can’t even recall my name
I show up late and I’m docked
It never fails
I feel like just another
Spoke in a great big wheel
Like a tiny blade of grass
In a great big field
To workers I’m just another drone
To Ma Bell I’m just another phone
I’m just another statistic on a sheet
To teachers I’m just another child
To IRS I’m just another file
I’m just another consensus on the street
Gonna cruise out of this city
Head down to the sea
Gonna shout out at the ocean
Hey it’s me
And I feel like a number
Feel like a number
Feel like a stranger
A stranger in this land
I feel like a number
I’m not a number
I’m not a number
Dammit I’m a man
I said I’m a man
100
It is nice. It is an “improvement” but I don’t see anything in the US Constitution regarding energy. In fact, that word nor anything regarding it are mentioned once.
102
spot on
Happy 91st birthday Abe Vigoda.
Abe Vigoda screwing up office dead pools since forever. Happy Birthday fish
saw him in a fort lee diner recently , looks ok.. he was having the eggs
NJE,
Thank you. I passed on the information to the old friend who is heading down.
Cool truck right. Nearly impossible to kill. I drove it to Florida from NJ many times with my motorcycle strapped to the back for bike week and biketoberfest. Shocks were wrecked by 150,000 miles.
98.Painhrtz – I ain’t dead yet says:
February 24, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Brian D21 Hardbody pickup 4×4 4cyl manual standard cab was my first new car in 1992 paid 9K for it could go anywhere. My D22 has 255K miles on her I really need a newer truck but everything is so damn big
I haven’t been to pub 199 but I went to pub 517. I guess I would have liked it if I were in my early twenties again. Sort of a beer and wings kind of place. Bunch of bikes parked out front. pretty cool.
D@m. Doesn’t anybody else post this late on a Friday? I can’t believe I have to work right now.
75.Fabius Maximus says:
February 24, 2012 at 2:01 pm
#17 Brian/Mike
You and your fancy Oatmeal stout. I’m more Pub 199 for a pitcher of Yingling to wash down the steak and lobster.
I lived in Mt Arlington for a year and I would not wish that comute down Rt80 on anyone. You only caught a break when the daily car wreck was at Junction 28. I lost count how many times I watched the MedEvac chopper land at the Rockaway mall exit.
#94 Joyce
I think 200 troops are left.
The economy is recovering, the double dip recession never showed up. 2009 cleared a lot of dead wood out of the eonomy. Companies that made it to 2010 did so with a good future in front of them. Debt has been reoganized and locked to low rates and long terms. Balance sheets have been rebuilt, and a lot of companies are sitting on boat loads of cash and investors loking for returns. We’ll see lots of spin offs, lots of consolidation and lots of M&A.
As for unemployment, the tide is turning. For those that say its the drop due to seniors retiring, I say balance those numbers against those that held off retirement for a few years.
The country took a few topedeos in 2008, but the boat didn’t sink. Some people expect quick rebound, but its more like turning around a supertanker, it is slow but it is moving.
For someone facing a fine due to the fact they are alive, I will point you towards the IRS. They answered that question a long time ago.
#96 gary
I hope I can phrase this right with out causing offense.
The writing was on the wall for financial IT and IT in general back in 2003. That year was a fcking bloodbath. My company and division had an 80% reduction in force. We didn’t trim fat, we cut muscle and cut off limbs. I can remember standing in Exchange Place PATH station beside what used to be Credit Suisse Internet trading department that had been shown the door en-masse. One kid, must have been just out of college, crying and blurbing that there are no f**ing jobs to go to.
I finally got a Rec to hire someone in 2005. After interviewing 50+ people, I picked up a ex unix SA from Lucent, who had been driving a Fritto Lay truck since the Telecom meltdown. I didn’t need an SA, but he had a side skill set that I could use to cross train him into the area I needed him to be in. Fast forward to today, I call him at 3AM and he picks up the phone. He goes on vacation with a laptop and aircard. He and I know that we can be sh1tcanned tomorrow. It’s not likely to happen, but we are both ready for it.
There are permanent jobs out there, but you are competing against a big pool of candidates. There are many ways of looking at contracting. I have had friends since the 90’s that have made some serious cash from it. Its not for me, but if I have to go there, I know what I looking at. Some of my friends have been offered permanent, but couldn’t afford the pay-cut. Others just want to work six months a year. It is a bizarre world and you play it how you can. You have to consider it from the other side. They can justify the cost to have the roll filled, they have a problem justifying an addition to headcount.
One big difference between contracting in the US and the rest of the world comes back down to healthcare.
#102 Pain
Its easier to understand when you look at it from the perspective of “Whats the Alternative?” Big Mac and Sister Sarah was a frightening concept in 2008 and the latest crop of GOP is just as bad. O is the only realistic option. Once you come to that realization, they policies fade to the background.
I discussed Tort Reform and the CBO numbers with Brian last month and the net result is that Tort reform will do nothing for healthcare costs. Medicare Part D was a huge GWB giveaway. Repeal it and push the providers to provide fair cost services otherwise open the Canadian border to cross country providers. The cost savings will follow.
I think I am still the only person on this board that has called for a full revocation of the Bush tax cuts. I have always maintained that they should not have been made in the first place. I see this happening next year. O with re-election will be able to allow them to expire. The progressives realise that revenues have to go up (to meet the obligagtions of the bush era) and are willing to go along.
#102 Pain redux
Let me put my take on preexisting conditions into perspective.
One of my friends was telling me a few weeks back that after 10 years she is finally able to get insurance through the new government PCIP. She stated getting blackouts about a decade ago. Her doctors couldn’t tell her what was causing them, but when she got laid off and got a new job she couldn’t get coverage. As she put it, “if I and a friend walk out on the sidewalk, slip on ice and break a wrist, my friend has insurance to fall back on, I don’t.” The broken wrist was not caused by my blackouts, but the impact on my insurance prospects is.
I have another friend with MS. He was diagnosed 12 years ago. The neurologist prescribed a drug regime that cost about 10K per month. Even though insurance was picking up the cost, he was going downhill rapidly. He made a leap of faith to http://www.lowdosenaltrexone.org/ This very cheap drug has stalled his progression of his MS, but the bigger impact is that he has been trapped in his job. He has not been able to change jobs for 10 years as he would lose his coverage. As he has a wife and three kids at home, he needs the job to provide family coverage.
Super cool..
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/23/garden/christopher-deam-brings-airstreams-interior-up-to-date-qa.html?_r=1&ref=garden
Fabius [116],
I agree 100%. There isn’t anything you said that I don’t already know. A lot of us are in the same boat and I’m not going to stand idle without objection. Eventually, the groveling little f*cks previously known as senior management are going to fall victim to the same blood-stained weapon. And even though we kid on this forum about doomsday scenarios and riots for food, if it comes down to it, my kids will survive at the expense of theirs.
Fabius 116 The second big difference is the pensions.
Regarding nuclear, you must be excited that Obama finally turned the trend:…New nuclear plants, the increase in drilling, the overabundance of natural gas and the investments in solar and wind…nice to finally have an energy policy.
Not really. 1 nuclear power plant? We’ve had the technology for decades to build them. Obama deserves no credit for petroleum advances. Natural gas, same deal. It’s not like Obama has driven that front?
Solar and Wind? I’d wish he’d stop. They are incredibly inefficient from an energy and price perspective. Furthermore, their unreliability requires you still build a generic fueled power plant nearby for when they don’t generate enough power. Complete waste.
Relo [21];
Looks like one of those floating drilling platforms, simply outfitted for alternate purposes. Looks very doable with current technology. Some oil Sheik can probably get one built at a discount considering existing relationships with likely builders.
Fab [116];
One big difference between contracting in the US and the rest of the world comes back down to healthcare.
Then why not level out the stupid employer tax advatage on buying health insurance that keeps workes chained to their employers?
I see Fab’s statements as rooted in reality and with an amount of truthfulness. What I cannot fathom is how much we don’t know about what our real future will resemble.
moose [125]
It’s rather naive for you to think that once the employer tax advantage in paying for health coverage is removed, they would give this money to the employees… Most likely, 90% of it will flow directly towards the bottom line – and formerly covered workers will have to pay through the nose in the individual market, so they’ll go without or will spend money now used to pay for something else. Unless we have community rating and individual mandate, dropping the employer coverage will completely kill the system. An obvious alternative is a single payer approach, but I don’t want to be verbally lynched here for proposing it.
yeah baby!
SPITZER CALL GIRL PLANS LINGERIE SHOP
http://www.redbankgreen.com/2012/02/spitzer-call-girl-plans-red-bank-boutique.html
LPG vehicle is 100% feasible, but the cost of the fuel per mile is about the same as gasoline if you subtract federal and state gas taxes – ask anyone who uses propane to heat his house.
—————————-
Not true. Bulk price for LPG is around $2 per gallon now including taxes. The problem with LPG – there is no infrastructure like in Europe. In Holland you can actually buy a car with gas tank last filled by the manufacturer of the car. About 80% cars got converted to LPG right after the purchase last time I checked in the end of 90-s
grim, thanks for the data on the county UCs YOY. Be interesting to see that data chartered up against the 30yr rate.
fire [129]
There are 3 main sources of LPG: natural gas liquids (NGL), lights from the crude distillation, and cat crackers. Refineries don’t make LPG on purpose, they just separate it – this is why the wholesale price may look good (supply exceeds demand). But – first, distribution costs are much higher than for gasoline or diesel (if you heat your home with propane it costs you more than #2 oil), and second, the total LPG production is less than 20% of gasoline and is mostly used for petrochemical production – if the demand for LPG jumps, you’ll have to pay through the nose to have it made on purpose.
Actually, some Ford trucks are sold in propane/LPG version (no need for retrofit).
I just want my dual fuel Nissan Frontier today along with Phill in the garage.
http://www.autoobserver.com/2011/03/brc-fuelmaker-again-selling-phill-home-cng-fuel-station.html
LP Gas seems nice but what happens when even that runs out?
Well it did in WWII Europe.
http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2010/01/wood-gas-cars.html
COMMENTARY | Jonathon Turley, a law professor at George Washington University, reports on a disturbing case in which a state judge in Pennsylvania threw out an assault case involving a Muslim attacking an atheist for insulting the Prophet Muhammad.
Judge Mark Martin, an Iraq war veteran and a convert to Islam, threw the case out in what appears to be an invocation of Sharia law.
The incident occurred at the Mechanicsburg, Pa., Halloween parade where Ernie Perce, an atheist activist, marched as a zombie Muhammad. Talaag Elbayomy, a Muslim, attacked Perce, and he was arrested by police.
Judge Martin threw the case out on the grounds that Elbayomy was obligated to attack Perce because of his culture and religion. Judge Martin stated that the First Amendment of the Constitution does not permit people to provoke other people. He also called Perce, the plaintiff in the case, a “doofus.” In effect, Perce was the perpetrator of the assault, in Judge Martin’s view, and Elbayomy the innocent. The Sharia law that the Muslim attacker followed trumped the First Amendment.
Words almost fail.
The Washington Post recently reported on an appeals court decision to maintain an injunction to stop the implementation of an amendment to the Oklahoma state constitution that bans the use of Sharia law in state courts. The excuse the court gave was that there was no documented case of Sharia law being invoked in an American court. Judge Martin would seem to have provided that example, which should provide fodder for the argument as the case goes through the federal courts.
The text of the First Amendment could not be clearer. “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof-” It does not say “unless somebody, especially a Muslim, is angered.” Indeed Judge Martin specifically decided to respect the establishment of a religion, in this case Islam.
That Judge Martin should be removed from the bench and severely sanctioned goes almost without saying. He clearly had no business hearing the case in the first place, since he seems to carry an emotional bias. He also needs to retake a constitutional law course. Otherwise, a real can of worms has been opened up, permitting violence against people exercising free speech.
It should be noted that another atheist, dressed as a Zombie Pope, was marching beside the Zombie Muhammad. No outraged Catholics attacked him.
brian [132]
Look at your natural gas bill: half of it is not the cost of gas (even this is 70% higher than the wholesale price; you can get some discount shopping around) but delivery charges that you are stuck with as nobody will lay another pipe to your house. This totally kills the cost advantage. And at 0.4 gal/hr of gasoline equivalent you need to stay home a lot to fuel a Frontier… If you want to venture out to gas up your truck, the state of NJ contains exactly 3 stations accessible to the public: http://www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/progs/ind_state.php/NJ/CNG
[8] meat,
Stopped in today. Got another case, mostly the Los Nevalos Cab. Up to 4 cases of red and 1+ case of white; another three and I will have my cellar where I want it. BTW, had the Stonewalker chenin blanc tonight with fish. Not bad either–a bit brighter and fruitier than I was expecting but that’s a good thing.
Went in and asked the new girl if Snooki was in. Then asked about the reception to the sign. She said positive comments to negative comments were running 99% for, 1% against the sign. Apparently, it is getting some press coverage too. She said she heard stories on local stations and family members have been calling her about it. Nice bit of free press there.
You do, however get one benefit from having Snooki around: Neighborhood was crawling with cops, both before I went into the city and after. So the local PBA is all happy about Snooki being there, even if no one else is.
Not really. 1 nuclear power plant? We’ve had the technology for decades to build them.
Right, and they just signed off on them( two by the way). First ones in decades.
Not a nuclear power fan? Sure there are safety concerns, but it’d be nice to lessen our dependence on oil.
more commentary on Obama’s tax proposal:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/02/tax-reform
The wonks continue to dismiss it as an election stunt, not a serious proposal. And I have yet to hear full throated support from the left, perhaps because a few sacred cows would get slaughtered. Or perhaps all it does is rearrange the deck chairs.
And now for something completely different:
List of colleges that claim to meet all of their undergrad’s financial need:
http://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/paying-for-college/articles/2012/02/16/colleges-that-claim-to-meet-full-financial-need
And I must add that they meet much more than financial need. I got lucky at at least three schools on this list.
Wonderful post, very informative. I’m wondering why the opposite specialists of this sector do not realize this. You must continue your writing. I am sure, you have a great readers’ base already!|What’s Going down i am new to this, I stumbled upon this I’ve discovered It absolutely helpful and it has helped me out loads. I’m hoping to contribute & help other users like its helped me. Good job.
Nom, always fun to look back on our glory days.
Does this mean I have to vote for O instead? http://www.kjonline.com/Romney-Raise-retirement-age.html
Schab, nuclear is the best option. I just think viewing 1 plant as an accomplishment is ludicrous. With the amount of wasted money he dumped into solar, we are way behind where we could have been
Juice, I remember reading somewhere that the Germans were turning coal into liquid fuels for vehicles and airplanes too.
Juice Box says:
February 25, 2012 at 7:53 pm
LP Gas seems nice but what happens when even that runs out?
Well it did in WWII Europe.
http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2010/01/wood-gas-cars.html
Grim, you’ve gone international with all these posts from India.
Anybody out open housing today?
I don’t know about all the technology involved but in Colombia, that pacesetter in the use of technology, about one in four gas stations has some form of natural gas available . My relative had his SUV re-engineered to run on natural gas and he pays maybe 1/3rd the price of regular gasoline. He complains that acceleration is not as good although in ridng with him I noticed no difference in performance from regular gasoline. So, if Colombia can do it, why can’t we? Oil industry lobby?
#149: No. You?
If you are, go check out that gorgeous farmhouse on Ridgewood Road in WT. High price, but I’ve loved that house since we moved here. Too bad it’s on the main drag. Even badder that it’s listed at $825K.
re # 149 – “Anybody out open housing today?”
I will be driving around BC today, so I stop in a few today today and tell them not
to give up hope, that they will eventually get their price?
: #151 – Look up the Pickens plan. He has been urging our country’s leaders to get a plan for years now, so far everything in Congress has been dead in the water which is no surprise.
Gary, you still have my email need to send you job link?
Gary ColdFusion Programmer whatever that is , good company.
Is that in your area of expertise.
Shlt. I’m mad as hell. Some mucking jerk was on TV saying that my party is in a damn crisis because that stinking RINO Romney has lost support and Santorum can’t win the damn general. That’s a bunch of bullspit. This country is leans to the damn right and a Santorum/Palin ticket would be just the thing to beat the hell out of that stinking radical in the damn White House, but you have a bunch of RINO’s running the hell around wringing their damn hands at the prospect and moaning about a damn brokered convention. Muck that shlt–we don’t need no damn brokered convention. We need Glenn Beck back to lead a damn march on Washington to put some pressure on these stinking RINO’s and tell them to get the hell out of the way of the damn people. We gonna take this damn country back from the damn liberals and the stinking RINO’s…Santorum/Palin in 2012!!
Damn that has a nice ring to it.
Japanese Madoff Billions mssing.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/02/aij-tokyo-asset-management-billions-in.html
On tbe MF global side of things little movement, I gather no immunity for Ms. O’Brian and Corzine skates free.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/02/26/investigators-scrutinize-mf-global-wire-transfers/
3b,
Took the clan out today for some open houses. Buyer’s market my ass…
156: Based on what…ask? Just curious.
>>>Juice Box says:
February 26, 2012 at 9:28 pm
On tbe MF global side of things little movement, I gather no immunity for Ms. O’Brian and Corzine skates free.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/02/26/investigators-scrutinize-mf-global-wire-transfers/<<<
Please don't be like Chicken Little. The damn sky isn't falling and there's no damn conspiracy afoot. Sure, Corzine is a stinking damn liberal, but none of this amounts to a hill of damn beans and these people will get their damn money back–and some have gotten it back already. There is no damn Japanese Madoff. The real Madoff pulled this damn stunt here all by his lonesome and there's no damn global conspiracy afoot. Who gives a shlt about what this jerk Gerald Celente says anyway. He and that dirtbag Alex Jones are two kooks anyway.
It's unamerican to not have faith in the damn system and you damn conspiracy theorists are usurpers who may need to be detained indefinitely for damn questioning. Perhaps a little sleep deprivation is just what the damn doctor ordered. . Keep it up.
Anything that resembles value is gone in under a week. Im not a RE pro but Im sure that the pro’s can chime in here and confirm that there is a tremendous amount of pent up demand.
Warren Buffet says banks were the victims during the housing meltdown. Obama may have to cut him from the Christmas card list.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-27/buffett-says-banks-victimized-by-evicted-homeowners-who-emerged-as-winners?category=%2F
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