From CNBC:
Parsing Home Prices Proves Precarious
Another day, another double-dose of home price reports, a home sentiment survey and a weekly report on mortgage applications.
All seem to point in different directions.
Both Lender Processing Services and CoreLogic released home price data, the former for December and the Latter for January; however, LPS claims that much of CoreLogic’s data comes from transactions in December, so you be the judge.
They both show prices down around 3 percent annually, but CoreLogic gives you distressed (foreclosures/short sales) versus non-distressed, showing that non-distressed prices are down just under one percent.
Why should we care about the difference?
Because well over a third of the housing market today is investors and first timers buying distressed properties, and that share will likely rise as foreclosures ramp up after the big “robo-settlement” between banks and state and federal governments.
You can see it in the weekly mortgage applications numbers. Home sales are rising, but mortgage applications to purchase a home are not. They are down nearly 8 percent from a year ago, despite a seemingly more busy spring market. Regular buyers are using all-cash because lending standards are still too tight, and investors are using cash because it gives them a competitive edge for distressed properties, especially in hotter markets where there is limited supply.
…
So what are we to take from this onslaught of data and perception? Housing is moving again. Buyers are coming out of the woodwork, but make no mistake, there will be no great surge in prices and no return to “normalcy” any time soon. There is still far to much distress left over, especially in states where foreclosures require a judge, and it will take years to move through that distress. Prices nationally will falter more and then stay flat, but in certain markets where investors are driving sales and where prices dropped the most, we will see faster appreciation. In states like New Jersey and New York, where foreclosures will clog the system for years, prices drops will be steeper and longer.
From the WSJ:
Fannie Mae: Outlook For Home Prices Improves Modestly In February
The consumer outlook for U.S. home prices improved modestly in February, extending a recent upward trend in housing market sentiment, according to mortgage funding firm Fannie Mae (FNMA).
For its monthly reading, Fannie Mae said respondents in its February survey predicted home prices will rise 0.8% over the next year, down slightly from 1% in January, and even with December. The portion of respondents that said it is a good time to sell improved by 3 percentage points to 13% last month, the highest level in more than a year.
Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan said “The pickup in the pace of hiring over the past few months has helped soothe consumer concerns, lifting their moods regarding their personal finances, the direction of the economy, and their views on the housing market.”
About 35% of respondents said they believe the U.S. economy is on the right track, up 5 percentage points from January. The percentage who said the economy is headed in the wrong direction fell to 57% of respondents, marking a 6 percentage point decline from the previous month.
The survey also found just 12% of respondents expect their personal financial situation to worsen over the next year, down 3 percentage points from January and the lowest level in more than a year.
From the NY Times:
How Good Is the Housing News?
The housing market has shown signs of life recently. Home sales have beat expectations and pending sales neared a two-year high. But prices — the crucial measure of housing-market health — are still falling, driven down by increasing levels of distressed sales of foreclosed properties. That means the market, and the broader economy, which derives much of its strength from housing, are not out of the woods — not by a long shot.
For too long, President Obama and his team have relied on the banks to voluntarily modify troubled loans. Those efforts were focused on reducing monthly payments, not principal — a more powerful form of relief.
Now President Obama is trying again. On Tuesday, he announced a new policy of easier refinancings for loans that are backed by the Federal Housing Administration. As part of the settlement announced in February, the major banks will be required to promote loan modifications for troubled borrowers, including principal reductions for underwater homeowners.
One thing is sure: Waiting for the situation to self-correct, as Mitt Romney has recommended, won’t fix the problem. The recent good news on sales has been driven by pent-up demand and warm winter weather that lured buyers. But more sales won’t translate into higher prices until foreclosures abate.
In the last quarter of 2011, national home prices fell 4 percent, putting prices back to levels last seen in mid-2002, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller price index. Moody’s Analytics estimates that 3.3 million homes are in or near foreclosure and another 11.5 million underwater homeowners are at risk of foreclosure if the economy or their finances weaken.
Is help really on the way?
The main component of the administration’s new efforts is the recent foreclosure settlement between the big banks and state and federal officials. In exchange for immunity from government civil lawsuits over most foreclosure abuses, the banks will provide $26 billion worth of relief, including principal write-downs, to an estimated 1.75 million borrowers. That is a pittance compared with the losses in the housing bust. But by preventing a chunk of additional foreclosures, it could help ensure that prices do not fall much further before bottoming out.
Has there been any attempt to convert troubled mortgages to 35 or 40 year fixed rate in an attempt to reduce monthly outlay and give owners time for market to recover. If this has been done, has it been forced on any home owners and has the new loan been changed to a full recourse note?
Extinction before recovery.
Another day in hell.
http://www.northjersey.com/news/bergen/bergen_news/Census_Numbers_of_Asian_Hispanic_homeowners_rising_in_North_Jersey.html?page=all
Change is on the way in North Jersey
Another program in the alphabet soup of housing fixes, not.
“In states like New Jersey and New York, where foreclosures will clog the system for years, prices drops will be steeper and longer.”
Per Gary “any questions”.
Saw a home today on GSMLS great price, nice house all seems to be a go, ok next check taxes. If I put down 0 the taxes would be more than the mortgage, keep it.
That’s okay by me. Hispanics are usually family value oriented good Catholic people. I’ve got no problem with that.
Asians I’ve know were also very family value oriented. Hard working.
The US was built on the backs of immigrants. Good hardworking families that risked everything to come to the US and just want a better life for themselves and their children. I my eyes, it’s a good thing for the country and the region.
5.freedy says:
March 8, 2012 at 7:10 am
http://www.northjersey.com/news/bergen/bergen_news/Census_Numbers_of_Asian_Hispanic_homeowners_rising_in_North_Jersey.html?page=all
Change is on the way in North Jersey
Yes change is on the way 10/15 to the home. Its pays to share
#5
Its the return of
Whoa, White Flight Freddy, (bam-A-lam)
Whoa, White Flight Freddy, (bam-A-lam)
White Freddy, got mad (bam-A-lam)
His Hood gone bad (bam-A-lam)
Packed the truck one night (bam-A-lam)
Headed south, past Hackensack (bam-A-Lam)
Whoa, White Flight Freddy, (bam-A-lam)
Whoa, White Flight Freddy, (bam-A-lam)
The blue collar protestant white guy that owned my current home two decades ago stuffed himself, his wife, sister and five kids into what was a two bedroom/one bathroom 1100sqft cape cod style home at the time (with no dining room). Eventually they finished off the upstairs, enclosed the breezeway and moved on to a bigger home.
8.freedy says:
March 8, 2012 at 7:28 am
Yes change is on the way 10/15 to the home. Its pays to share
Brain,
Up our way it is 95-98 % white English only population nice Spanish or Asian family moves in no problem. There kids go with all of ours become Americanized, now when a town gets over run by any one ethnic group it is different & you might not be so comfortable with it. I agree that for the most part both groups are hard working with good values but that doesn’t change my premise.
Hang on. Trying to respond but keeps getting moderated. Probably because we’re talking about races.
11.Mikeinwaiting says:
March 8, 2012 at 7:37 am
OMG tried like 3 times now to respond all moderated. I give up.
My 1rish grandfather had my grandmother, great grandmother and six kids living in an american foursquare with one bathroom in Cliffside Park. At the time, the W@$Ps were probably saying there goes the neighborhood. My aunts either got jobs as lawyers or married rich husbands. One of my uncles is a millionaire with a house down the shore. Their kids (my cousins) are lawyers, or money managers. All make great money.
What’s your point. It’s been going on for hundreds of years. This looks to me like the next cycle.
11.Mikeinwaiting says:
March 8, 2012 at 7:37 am
Brain,
Up our way it is 95-98 % white Engl1sh only population nice $panish or @sian family moves in no problem. There kids go with all of ours become Americanized, now when a town gets over run by any one ethnic group it is different & you might not be so comfortable with it. I agree that for the most part both groups are hard working with good values but that doesn’t change my premise.
Wait, let me get this straight.
Immigrants can afford to live in NJ, but you all complain it is unaffordable?
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/03/08/despite-dip-in-fortune-slim-still-the-worlds-richest-man/?smid=tw-nytimesdealbook&seid=auto
Jobless claims up 8k to 362k, above estimates.
[9] fabius,
But you’re staying true to the hood, right?
Regular buyers are using all-cash because lending standards are still too tight
I am reading that line correctly??? So you don’t qualify for a mtg because standards are too tight, and yet you have enough money to pay cash? This is the kind of nonsense that we see time and time again with these stories!!! Does anyone read these things before they are printed?
Italians, Irish , German you name it came her to be American learned the language, assimilated, now to much emphasis on retaining ethnic identity blah blah blah. This is more pronounced when a whole town per say is one group, you live in the sticks therefore it doesn’t bother you ,is my point. My grand parents 9 kids in a cold water flat in Hoboken same story. I was never taught I was Italian, I was American that is just where we came from.
You know 3b I should have caught that yea that is it I can not get a mortgage so I am going to buy cash, hello.
But more sales won’t translate into higher prices until foreclosures abate.
But lower prices will translate into more sales, and more sales coupled with lower prices will mean buyers have more money to go out and buy new stuff for the new homes, thereby stimulating the economy further. If a buyer is in a house ans struggling to make the payments every month, then they are not out stimulating the economy. High prices are a drag on the economy, not a boost. Why am I always talking to myself?
Why do you think I moved out here Fabius #9.
In states like New Jersey and New York, where foreclosures will clog the system for years, prices drops will be steeper and longer.
Cue the sounds of the death knell.
Tick… tick… tick… tick…
3B [19],
Hilarious, isn’t it? lol!
“Sorry, Mr. Smith, you don’t qualify.”
“Ok fine, Miss Muffintop, here’s a check for the full purchase price.”
#25 gary: Amazing isn’t it, and this is what passes for qualtiy journalism.
could they be referring to investors buying the props? only investors that can pay cash?
New listing below in you know where, blue ribbony train town and all the rest. And the taxes are….. a whimsical…. $14, 400.00 per year!!!!, Add on about another 400 to 500 bucks this year, and well you guys can do the math. And no, no, the Realtor did not make a mistake and mislabel the listing its not Saddle River.
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1208276&dayssince=&countysearch=false
#28 Oh and if you have any questions, please refer them to gary.
Grim (15): Exactly!
I am curious what the tax situation is like Clifton, Little Ferry, North Bergen, Union City is like. The areas with the little houses that are not that expensive.
I finally finished all my degrees and am ready to move out of this studio apartment.
Again thanks for all the housing advice from this board for the last almost 10 years.
#27 seif: No read the article.
Regular buyers are using all-cash because lending standards are still too tight, and investors are using cash because it gives them a competitive edge for distressed properties, especially in hotter markets where there is limited supply
3B [28],
F*cking priceless. With 20% down, the PITI will be around $3300 per month. It’s a Hansel and Gretel f*cking gingerbread house. This is not a real listing. It’s just a barometer or a tool for metrics. No one with a blood flow would even consider it.
#32 gary I know unbelievable!!! But it was on the market at least once before, and I believe at one time they were asking in the high 500’s!!!!
read the article? i only come here for the pictures!
As Gary might say, “sell to whom?” With taxes hanging like the sword of Damocles and then this, it is hard to see any rational basis to predict strong demand for housing in the NJ area:
March 8, 2012 at 12:59 am
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204795304577223632111866416.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_News_BlogsModule
Bad News for Boomers
Demographic trends will depress portfolio returns, this researcher warns
If you’re a baby boomer, you’ve got a big problem when it comes to the investment returns you can expect in retirement: It’s the sheer number of other boomers who are also getting ready to leave the workplace and rely on their portfolios to help pay the bills.
snip
The problem in a nutshell: The ratio of retirees to active workers in the U.S. will balloon. As retirees sell stocks and then bonds to support themselves, there will be fewer younger investors to buy those securities, keeping a lid on prices. Meanwhile, strong demand from boomers and a limited supply of workers will boost the prices of goods and services the boomers need.
snip
Puerto Rican guy I sit next to and work with everyday speaks perfect english. My friend from Colombia you wouldn’t know he was anything other than the average regular American guy. Phillipino girl my Brother in law married worked very hard to get her masters and get her citizenship.
Sticks? Out there? You’d think I lived in outer space or something.
It’s nothing new really…the worlds changing constantly just as it always has and always will.
My great grandfather on the Italian side’s name was Donatello. I gues they were worried about being made fun of for their crazy names then so he had everyone call him Danny. Couple generations in and it’s a name used regularly by my aunts and cousins (Danny that is). Now people are proud of their Italian or hispanic or Asian names. Good for them. It’s good to know where you came from.
21.Mikeinwaiting says:
March 8, 2012 at 8:41 am
Italians, Irish , German you name it came her to be American learned the language, assimilated, now to much emphasis on retaining ethnic identity blah blah blah. This is more pronounced when a whole town per say is one group, you live in the sticks therefore it doesn’t bother you ,is my point. My grand parents 9 kids in a cold water flat in Hoboken same story. I was never taught I was Italian, I was American that is just where we came from.
Shore [35],
The “Sell? Sell to Whom?” phrase was originated by BC Bob and is one of the most concise and perfect tag lines to originate on this blog.
Those who purchased in our area from 2002 through 2010 with little to nothing down are slowly bleeding to death. Their condition is terminal and nothing can be done to save them. The only thing left now is to circle slowly and wait for the final pulse before consuming the carcass.
#23 mikeinwaiting
Dueling. Banjos? …… :*)
I lived out your direction at one point and I still think that Hopatcong deserves its own episode of Cops.
#38 gary: So you are not interested in that listing I posted??
If one doe is a deer, then is two or more of them “does”? If so, how do differentiate the annunciation of “does” vs. “does” when reading text?
Hey, what can I say, I had fish for dinner last night and 12 cups of coffee so far. Just humor me, answer my f*cking question and shut up! ;)
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/2012/02/jon-corzine-201202
Not Jon’s best review
3B [40],
Remove the residents and burn the m’fer to the ground.
“After three years he decided to quit the bank to become a full-time M.B.A. student. To pay for his final year at Chicago, he borrowed using his credit card—just what his father would never have done. “That’s true of all this baby-boom generation,” he said. “They learned to borrow early and big.”
Say this for Jonny, he knows his generation.
True story from a women I know in NJ. Indian women with husband in park with usual pack of Indians kids grabbing up all the equipment. Couple of teenagers walking by look at them in park and go damm foreigners I wish they get out of here. The teenagers were Chinese. The hispanic and asians (chinese, korean, japanse) etc. are much better at assimilating. The indians can be third generation NJ folk and still giving kids extremely indian first names that are hard to pronounce, speaking indian, painting hands, wearing indian clothes, eating indian food and watching on dish network bollywood films and Indian Idol. Some cultures like the Irish landed at JFK kissed the tarmack and said thank god I am american. Some cultures like Hindus and Pakis could have came over on the mayflower and still would stink of curry.
Not ment to offend anyone, my indian friends would tell me the same.
Brian says:
March 8, 2012 at 7:25
That’s okay by me. Hispanics are usually family value oriented good Catholic people. I’ve got no problem with that.
Asians I’ve know were also very family value oriented. Hard working.
People are cash buyers as average discount in 2011 for a cash pPurchase was 10%. Even a mortgage at 4% makes no sense if you paid 10% extra for house.
Example one million dollar home you live in and sell after ten years.
Buyer one paid cash 900K.
Buyer two paid with mortgage, paid one million and paid at 4% 400K interest over ten years. Of 400K interest he got 30% back on taxes which is a total of 280K
He is in to house for 1,280,000
Does 4% mortgage look that great now?
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a record low of 3.13% this week, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of conforming mortgage rates, released on Thursday.
[34] seif
“read the article? i only come here for the pictures!”
Post of the Day so far.
#45 JJ
And the Irish stink of cabbage, the Germans, saurkraut, the Spainish with your beloved Vidalias and the French garlic, etc, etc.
“Change is on the way in North Jersey”
Great. Perhaps we’ll finally get a good Mexican Restaurant up in here yo.
George Carlin on the state of economics and politics in the USA.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV1lZMTCqf8&feature=share
They did. But if you go to facebook, twitter, contact list, read emails, read contact list on cell phone of the average second or third generation indian you will notice outside of work 99% of their contacts, associations, facebook friends, personal email addresses are all indians. They vacation together, dine together, etc.
The average second or third generation Irish, German facebook page, contact list, speed dial list, email contacts would be people of all types of religions, races etc. You would see the goldbergs, the dinapolis, jacksons, etc. You would never see 300 irish facebook contacts in a third generation Irish person account. The NJ indians do a little better in the business world but still if you go to a Indians linken accounts you will see dozens upon dozens shahs and patel. Even in business they are mainly with each other kinda like the hasedics.
Fabius Maximus says:
March 8, 2012 at 10:58 am
#45 JJ
And the Irish stink of cabbage, the Germans, saurkraut, the Spainish with your beloved Vidalias and the French garlic, etc, etc.
NJ Ethnic Cleansing Report
Fabius 49 I thought us Italians were the garlic guys.
Fab 39 Hopatcong is a sh*t hole, gotta come farther north about half hour for the banjos.
mikey (54)-
Imposing new rule on myself: no travel north of Hot Dog Johnny’s.
Gary (for president),
Taxes really are a much bigger factor in the equation than how they are being sold to the sheeple. As I may have mentioned a while back, we are renting in Edgewater. Our co-op unit, though technically a rental for the duration of our lease, came well cared for and spec’d as you’d expect a modern owner occupied dwelling to be. Central to everything, pool out back, unobstructed views of GWB (yadda, yadda, yadda) courtesy of coop fees paid for by my landlord. One of my friends just purchased a 104 year old run down 1,050sq/ft on 50X150 in the meadowlands…$8K tax bill and 30-40K in reno/repair, train tracks out back and on glide path to Teterboro… uh, no thanks. One guy who is paying $11K in taxes is lamenting about his kids having to attend sub-standard schools in town (….blank stare). What’s worse is that these guys aren’t touting warm and fuzzy Adler feelings as the basis for their purchases, they have the stones to represent theirs as a sound investment decision. The message to buy, buy, buy into anything at all costs to avoid renting is ingrained in their minds beyond reason, unfortunately that playbook should have been junked 7 years ago.
I guess I’m frustrated because I continue to erroneously extrapolate a certain level of financial acumen and objective analysis to the majority of the population and my numbers aren’t adding up.
“Just think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of them are even stupider!”
Mikeinwaiting [54],
Wasn’t the movie “Deliverance” filmed up there? Oh wait, that was somewhere around Chatsworth, NJ. Nevermind.
#52 JJ
Not my facebook friends. In fact I would say that it is only my Norweigen and German friends post in their mother tounge. All my Asiapac friends post in english. Even the links to to Bollywood gossip sites.
[49] fabius,
The irish don’t stink of cabbage. They stink of cabbage and beer.
At least that’s what I remember growing up.
gary (57)-
Nah. Up there, they have a Kim Jong Il personality cult.
[56] zieba,
““Just think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of them are even stupider!”’
I used to joke about moving back to Mass and lowering the average IQ of both states.
Then I found out it might not be a joke after all:
http://www.statemaster.com/graph/edu_bac_deg_or_hig_by_per-bachelor-s-degree-higher-percentage
http://www.city-data.com/top2/h182.html
zieba [56],
Amazing isn’t it? The “tax” conversation is more elusive than the Bornean bay cat. Let the masses pound themselves in the head with the ball peen hammer and you keep hitting the nail on the head.
[56] zieba,
““Just think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of them are even stupider!”’
I used to joke about moving back to Mass and lowering the average I-Q of both states.
Then I found out it might not be a joke after all:
http://www.city-data.com/top2/h182.html
Meat 55 Come on up you are aware our H.S. field has the most exspensive turf, it’s for the children.
Average Joe has finally been conditioned to repeatedly bend over and take it no Vas.
mikey (62)-
I hear they are renaming the HS stadium Hugh Hefner Field.
Anybody know how much $$$ Hef burned up doing that idiot ski resort?
BTW, I still want to know what’s the plural for “doe” and how it’s annunciated in text. Is it, “does” or “does”? lol!
Civilization in NJ ends at Buttzville.
gary (66)-
I’m pretty sure it’s “dope”.
Usage: “Mikey went down to the store in Wantage, picked up some PBR, drank it in the parking lot and hit two dope on the way home.”
Alternate usage: “That is some dope f*cking shit”.
Meat 64/65 you are showing your age that was long ago.
#66 gary
Duhz or dohz?
Have you forgotten all of your Hooked on Phonics lessons?
PBR nothing but the best.
lending standards too tight vs paying cash
doesn’t that just mean only investing are bottom fishing and paying cash for distressed sales? and little to no “traditional” buyers are out getting mortgages and starting families etc
Fabius [72],
Or, if you’re Italian-American from Jersey, it would sound like this: “Duzh Deez Dohz know which way to go?”
Notice the switch of the “zh” and “hz” in the first and last words. Very interesting… I think we’re on to something!
If you call it English. I have seen the 20 something Indian postings of staff and it is a combination of texting lingo, typos, indian slang words with some words in English connecting the gobble gook. Hard enough to follow the average 20 something but the lingo. Also the indian ethnic slurs mixed of whites, blacks, non indian asians and lower class asians mixed in, don’t they know there is a thing called the internet where you can translate it. Crazy stuff. Employers can look it up.
Fabius Maximus says:
March 8, 2012 at 11:35 am
#52 JJ
Not my facebook friends. In fact I would say that it is only my Norweigen and German friends post in their mother tounge. All my Asiapac friends post in english. Even the links to to Bollywood gossip sites.
Joyce [74],
Yes. It’s that simple.
And when they get flat tires dago wop wop
gary says:
March 8, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Fabius [72],
Or, if you’re Italian-American from Jersey, it would sound like this: “Duzh Deez Dohz know which way to go?”
Notice the switch of the “zh” and “hz” in the first and last words. Very interesting… I think we’re on to something!
gary [38] – We purchased in 2002 at 2001 prices and put 40% down. We’ve paid down our mortgage and have about 66% equity now. Our home is even worth maybe $20K-$40K more than we paid for it. I was very happy with this predicament until I did some math yesterday. If I rented a similar place (which I could have easily done), our carrying costs would be about the same as they have been, fine. But then I figured out what would have happened if I bought 150 ounces of gold with my down payment instead of buying equity in our home. If I had been that prescient, I would still have 150 ounces of gold, except it would now be worth about $600,000. Bummer.
Anyone who says lending is tight right now is making shit up.
Yes, you need to produce bank statements, taxes, pay stubs, w2s, and evidence that your DP was not borrowed. But if your credit isn’t shit, no problem.
10% down non-FHA is no problem.
#74 joyce:
1.REGULAR BUYERS ARE USING ALL CASH because lending standards are still too tight, and 2.INVSTORS ARE USING CASH because it gives them a competitive edge for distressed properties, especially in hotter markets where there is limited supply
Yep, nothing risky about buying 150oz of gold with a big chunk of your savings.
I was long gold too, and did well, but that is just crazy talk.
You could have bought a couple of kilos in Medelin too, and flipped that for a mint.
You could have bough AAPL at $12 in 2002….
The Original NJ Expat says:
March 8, 2012 at 12:09 pm
gary [38] – If I had been that prescient, I would still have 150 ounces of gold, except it would now be worth about $600,000. Bummer.
chicagofinance [83],
You practically read my mind.
Folks, all cash buyers exist, right now, today.
It is impossible to comprehend if all you think about are first time buyers.
Plenty of lateral relocators pay cash.
Plenty of older downsizers pay cash.
Hell, you can still play geoarbitrage and sell your jersey house and pay cash down south.
What sound does a sack of sh!t make when it hits a wall……
JJ says:
March 8, 2012 at 12:08 pm
And when they get flat tires dago wop wop
gary says:
March 8, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Fabius [72],
Or, if you’re Italian-American from Jersey, it would sound like this: “Duzh Deez Dohz know which way to go?”
The does are eating grass.
See what I mean? It’s just not right. :) You’re going to say, “The duz are eating grass.” LOL!
grim [85],
Folks, all cash buyers exist, right now, today.
They always did exist. Wouldn’t you say that number is dwindling, though?
grim,
Here’s something you can appreciate:
http://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/invisible-mercedes-brings-james-bond-technology-life-171557818.html
Screw Apple and Gold if we are in fantasy land I would have bought this, NetEase.com, Inc. NTES as it is up 32,000 Percent since 2001
with stock market up 100% in last three years and home falling for three years since it is natural to have more cash buyers.
If stocks fell for three years straight while homes rose like from 2000 to 2003 there would be less cash buyers.
gary says:
March 8, 2012 at 12:23 pm
grim [85],
Folks, all cash buyers exist, right now, today.
They always did exist. Wouldn’t you say that number is dwindling, though?
“Financialization is like the bubonic plague–it constantly needs new victims as it kills off its existing hosts. Housing? Dead, killed by financialization, aided, abetted and powered by the Federal Reserve. Now the Fed wants to “save” what it already killed via financialization–housing–by buying $1 trillion in plague-infested mortgages and brute-force efforts to keep interest rates below inflation, i.e. negative rates.”
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar12/pretend-financialization3-12.html
Vernon HS motto:
“We’re not Buttzville”
#76 JJ
You just described almost every college kid in the US. Cab we table this one until your kids hit high school.
How time flies in here. It doesn’t seem that long ago when Bi and Pret where following Rupert Murdochs call for oil at $20/barrel while it went to $150
Anyway Freakonomics elaborates on why gas prices caused the housing crises.
http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/03/08/how-high-gas-prices-triggered-the-housing-crisis/
#85: The point at least in my opinion was that the articel said if people cannot get financing then they pay cash. IMO if you have cash ,but you choose to go with financing, then getting the financing should not be a problem.
96 – Agree
I really don’t understand why we are debating a very sad article from CNBC when we all know that CNBC is a poor news source to begin with. In fact there are a lot of “main stream” news sources that are so corrupt and poorly written that one could only label them as trash.
Case in point is Yahoo finance news. I saw an article that clearly could have benefited from a chart but they were just too lazy to include one. They have a contributor network and I might have added some value but the terms and conditions effectively said that they could change what you wrote without your consent or permission and that you gave up all legal right to your work. Who the F**K wants to contribute under those conditions.
The news media in the US has become very, very poor. I understood that there would be a decline in journalism when newspapers started going belly up but this has become nearly unbearable.
The CNBC garbage is just another indicator of stale, worthless news outlets.
Maybe a few realise they have no chance at re-election.
(In my besst Ben Stein voice) Liberman, Liberman
http://mobile.politico.com/story.cfm?id=73759&cat=topnews
Wall Street bonuses hit bottom and are poised to rebound about 20 percent this year as markets improve, according to Alan Johnson, president and founder of compensation consulting company Johnson Associates Inc.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/household-debt-up-for-first-time-since-recession-2012-03-08?siteid=bnbh
Next time we are wondering why the malls are jammed
Just go online and try to book a trip to Disney, Atlantis, Beaches, Puerto Rico etc. for spring break. Every place is sold out and the few open spots are sky high priced.
The REO I bid on I gave up on as it was attracting multiple offers all cash. Same house last year was briefly on market and no buyer was interested.
Apple IPAD 3 sales through roof. Funny part is joe broke guy hears economy is better, stocks are up, housing bottomed, jobs are coming back and starts spending on credit, makes no sense. He has no more money, but still he likes to spend in good times
freedy says:
March 8, 2012 at 2:14 pm
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/household-debt-up-for-first-time-since-recession-2012-03-08?siteid=bnbh
Next time we are wondering why the malls are jammed
#00, 01, 02. All true, and yet the Fed is considering QE 3, sterilized quantitative easing. One could make IMO a very strong argument that the Fed has backed itself into a corner and has to keep rates low (no matter what), or this so called recovery falls apart.
One would think that in light of a supposedly recovering economy the talk would be the Fed raising rates, not considering yet more easing.
Was it clot that said the market is like a crack addict? Seems to me not just the market, but the entire economy.
JJ [102] Our last office was right across the street from a mall in Cambridge, MA, complete with Apple store. When the very first iPhones came out (2008?) I could not believe the endless line of dweebs who had literally all day long to stand in line to buy and sign up for their $100/month AT&T multi-year plan. I thought for sure we would have seen huge waves of credit card defaults on the heels of the sub-prime defaults, but I guess I was wrong. It looks to me now like anybody under 30 will sooner be homeless and hungry before they will be without data plans that make them no money and keep them from concentrating on any efforts that will make them some.
Gold: “It looks to me now like anybody under 30 will sooner be homeless and hungry before they will be without data plans that make them no money and keep them from concentrating on any efforts that will make them some.”
The rendering of the average Amerikan into a mental eunuch is nearly complete.
Well it is there only expense.
Double Down says:
March 8, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Gold: “It looks to me now like anybody under 30 will sooner be homeless and hungry before they will be without data plans that make them no money and keep them from concentrating on any efforts that will make them some.”
A pill to eliminate hate
http://www.pharmalot.com/2012/03/take-this-pill-and-you-wont-be-a-racist/
56,
Zeiba,
The game is to s_ize all assets including your home. The question remains. Is a home an asset when its equity can be c_nfiscated through property taxes?
I still conclude that the best position to be in right now is a renter whose savings are in b_llion. You cant get more mobile than that.
98,
Nicholas,
Best source of news today are the town patch web sites. Say goodbye to the newspaper. I also enjoy noticing how many other people hate the g_v as much as I do evidenced by every articles comment section.
Take the red pill.
Re: Stocks.
I am long some junior miners and have some oil exposure. I have placed my financial future in the hands of Bob Quartermain and the great province of British Columbia. Diversify? F_ck that. There is no better business than mining money.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PVG
Disclosure: Cashed out my IRA. They will be c__fiscated via optional then mandatory investment in US tr_asuries. When Barry Soetoro is reelected he is going to finish the job he was sent here to do. Mitt Romney wont save you either.
Stay mobile.
AG, how you doing?
Here is a nice link if anyone would like to see what your overpriced, overtaxed, Abe Lincoln crap shack in the beautiful state of NJ looked like from 1931 to present.
http://www.historicaerials.com/
118.
Angry. As usual. Better angry than bored though. Most of my comments go into moderation. I guess “sh_ulder fired” is still not allowed.
#44: Dunno about that. In my circle, we all bought houses we could afford, updated what we could afford to, and we’re all on target to be paid off by the time we’re 65, even people like me who were 40 when they bought. It’s the Gen-Xers I know who bought low, took equity loans to put in gourmet kitchens, add-a-levels and Trex decks, and now will never be out from underwater. Were there boomers who behaved foolishly? Sure. Are there Gen-Xers who behaved foolishly? Absolutely. It’s a question of values, not generation.
I find it interesting how people think there are not much cash buyers. If you go back to 2008 on this blog the days of Lehman collaspe the Fed basically said the following:
Late 2008 Stabilize Investment Grade Bonds, Overnight Repos and Money Markets
2009 Stablize Stocks Junk Bonds and MBS, mainly Junk Bonds Recovered
2010 Continue to Stablize Stocks, Junk and MBS
2011 Stablize Muni Bonds and Stablize Europe Crisis
2012 Fully Recover Stock Market and finally stablize housing.
One only had to buy investment grade bonds till yields started falling, follow to Junk, Follow to Subprime MBS, Follow to Munis and Follow to Stock. Each year moving to the next thing to be stablized. With everything stablized in finanical instruments the next logical thing to move on to is housing, hence buyers of investment properties.
In late 2008 investment grade bonds paying 18%, early 2009 Junk paying 27-40%, onto Subprime MBS at 20% then to tax free Munis at 7% and onware to European Bank bonds in October 2008 and Stocks in 2012.
Someone on sidelines waiting for a house with even 100K sitting in Cds and Money Markets in October 2008 easily has at least 250K without adding a nickle.
These markets rallied as people were buying with both hands. Remember the value of your primary home is imaginary wealth. The value of income producing assets is real wealth. Think if you bought just 15k worth of Ford in early 2009 when they were trading at 15 cents on a dollar and with a 8% coupon. You would have 24K interest and you could have bought 25K worth of muni bonds paying 5%. You would have 125K with an income stream of almost 10K a year for 30 years. The home going up and down in value is a roller coaster, unlike stocks with dividends or bonds with interest it is paying you nothing and costs money to maintain.
Real wealth grew in March 2009 to March 2012 but the wealth came to risk takers who had cash to invest. That is a large group of people. The indebted underwater home owners who bought in 2003-2009 tied up 100% of net worth in an asset that decline each year, costly to maintain and paid no dividend or interest. That was a portfolio killer. The cash buyers did not make that mistake.
115
If you think housing has stablized, I have more worthless paper for you to buy.
Why don’t you roll the dice on those greece govt bonds, 1-year yielding over 1,000%
I thought you like to help the public? here’s another chance for you
Mortgage. How quaint. Seriously, most of my friends lost there mortgage awhile ago, everytime I had some extra cash I would thow it at the morgage. Mainly during bull markets like 2007 to Summer 2008 as I did not want to put more in market. 2008 interest rates on my one year cds maturing were falling like a brick so I paid of mortgage. Usually I buy a car, kitchen, stuff on bonus checks. Why mortgage. Tell your hubbie next bonus throw like 50K towards that bad boy. We all know the average person on this site are multi millionaires with full heads of hair and bodies the greek gods would die for. I find it shocking you are making up stories you still have a mortgage, only the little people have mortgages
Jill says:
March 8, 2012 at 4:04 pm
#44: Dunno about that. In my circle, we all bought houses we could afford, updated what we could afford to, and we’re all on target to be paid off by the time we’re 65, even people like me who were 40 when they bought. It’s the Gen-Xers I know who bought low, took equity loans to put in gourmet kitchens, add-a-levels and Trex decks, and now will never be out from underwater. Were there boomers who behaved foolishly? Sure. Are there Gen-Xers who behaved foolishly? Absolutely. It’s a question of values, not generation.
Greeks are Freeks. I actually bought some European bank bonds and some Euorpean Stock during “crisis” as I knew they would ram this bond tender down the throats of the greek bondholders to eliminate the contagion risk. Timmy G was over in Europe while I was over there and he was calming down the folks telling them this was their Lehman monent. Ring Circle the Greeks and Screw their bond holders before Spain, Portagul, Italy, Ireland collaspe pushing Germany and France down the same wormhole. Got some nice long term bonds with 11% yields.
I small a near term muni buying opportunity. That baby is going to have a mini ETF flash crash type event. I just smell it. Somewhere in Late March or Early April. I have dry powder for that.
joyce says:
March 8, 2012 at 4:15 pm
Why don’t you roll the dice on those greece govt bonds, 1-year yielding over 1,000%
I thought you like to help the public? here’s another chance for you
Not so hard to pay off the mortgage on a 1960s split level. That $2M manse in Muttontown, where players live, is a different story.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/cost-of-living-now-outweighs-benefits,1316/
#118: Bonus? What bonus? What job? Hubbie is a 56-year-old who’s the best damn tech support guy I’ve ever seen. Not a virus he can’t clean on any PC nor any PC problem he can’t diagnose. Been on a low-wage contract for the last year that’s about to run out, but no one gives a r@t’s *ss about tech support anymore. Let the network just limp along, blame the vendor, tell the employees to just s*ck it up and deal. And where they DO have tech support, they want a 25-year-old who knows what he does.
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