From Crain’s New York:
Rising rents boosting sales of starter apartments
Studios and one-bedroom apartments in Manhattan made a comeback during the first three months of this year, according to quarterly residential market reports released Tuesday morning as rising rents forced more people to look at buying a place.
These starter- or entry-level apartments represented 56.2% of all sales transactions that closed during the first quarter, according to a report by Prudential Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Inc. That was the largest share of the action the segment has accounted for since the fourth quarter of 2009, when the first-time-buyer tax credit touched off a surge in that segment.
In this year’s first quarter, there were a total of 2,311 closings, down 3.5% from the first quarter of 2011. Similarly, in a separate report, the Corcoran Group said studios and one bedrooms accounted for 52.4% of all sales in the first quarter.
“Rents are extremely high and it is driving more first time homebuyers into the sale market,” said Pam Liebman, CEO of the Corcoran Group. Additionally, “we saw a big rush in the studio and one-bedroom market because the mortgage interest rates are low,” added Dottie Herman, CEO of Elliman.
…“Prices are moving sideways,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, adding that prices have remained stable for more than two and half years now.
…And it’s not just the high end that is hot. Apartments at all price ranges sold well in the first quarter. Streeteasy.com, which tracks contract signings across Manhattan in its quarterly market report, said 2,621 listings entered into contract during the quarter, up 23.5% from the same period in 2011. All the activity bodes well for the spring results which will track deal closings.
“I anticipate a robust housing market in the spring,” said Mr. Miller.
Will the recovery begin in the starter home segment here as well?
From HousingWire:
The mobile home Zillow priced at $357,000
How much would you pay for a manufactured home in a mobile home park? $90,000? What if it was in a nice area in Sunnyvale, Calif.? Maybe $129,000? That happens to be the listing price.
Zillow ($37.02 0%), on the other hand, had it “Zestimated” at $357,000.
I was curious, so I called the listing agent, William Cotton at Advantage Homes, who was quite shocked at the listing price.
“I bet they mistook it for a conventional home,” he said. “This is a manufactured home in a mobile home park.”
That was my bet too. After all, this manufactured home does have 3 beds and 2 baths, and the $357,000 price tag would be quite reasonable if it were a conventional home in high-priced Sunnyvale. So, I contacted Zillow.
But they did, in fact, know it was in a mobile home park.
“We did know this was a mobile home. Turns out it’s in a really expensive neighborhood and there aren’t a lot of comps for mobile homes in this area to help inform the Zestimate,” said Jill Simmons of Zillow.
When I told her it was actually in a massive mobile home park, called El Dorado Mobile Home Park, and that there was actually a listing of all the homes in the park for sale, she said that because only two of them had sold in the last several months it simply wasn’t enough for the Zestimate.
While I understand that the Zestimate is calculated by a computer, this seems to point out exactly why many real estate agents have such a problem with it: It simply can’t account for obvious problems that are easily spotted by a trained human eye.
Or in this case, a completely untrained one. Because, let’s be honest, no manufactured home in a mobile home park is ever going to be worth $357,000.
Tenafly Comp Killer
77 Highwood Ave, Tenafly NJ
East Hill, 3,566 sqft
Purchase price: $730,000 (November 2008)
Sale price: $626,000 (October 2011)
Tax assessment: $654,400 (2011)
From Bloomberg:
Home Prices Seen Dropping 10% in U.S. on Foreclosures: Mortgages
As many as 1.25 million of America’s least cared for homes are headed for auction after a year-long probe into foreclosure practices kept them off the market.
Sales of repossessed properties probably will rise 25 percent this year from 1 million in 2011, according to Moody’s Analytics Inc. Prices for the homes could drop as much as 10 percent because they deteriorated as they were held in reserve during investigations by state officials resolved in February, according to RealtyTrac Inc. That month, 43 percent of foreclosures were delinquent for two or more years, from a 21 percent share in 2010, according to Lender Processing Services Inc. in Jacksonville, Florida.
“The longer a foreclosed home is in the mill, the bigger the losses,” said Todd Sherer, who manages distressed mortgage investments for Dalton Investments LLC, a Los Angeles-based hedge fund that oversees $1.5 billion. “We have a bulge of these properties coming through the system.”
Homes stockpiled less than a year sell for about 35 percent below the value set by lenders, according to a March 15 report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. At two years, the loss is close to 60 percent. A surge of cheap foreclosures may erode prices in the broader real estate market, even as the economy expands and residential building increases, said Karl Case, one of the creators of the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index.
…
“The question on these aging foreclosures is how many are going to be sold and affect prices and how many will be complete losses,” said Case, professor emeritus at Wellesley College in Wellesley, Massachusetts. “Depending on their condition, they could have a big impact on home prices.”
“Because, let’s be honest, no manufactured home in a mobile home park is ever going to be worth $357,000.”
Umm, these ones?
http://abcnews.go.com/2020/story?id=2928554&page=1#.T3rVndlSkqE
Well, its thought provoking!
http://blogs.bostonmagazine.com/boston_daily/2012/04/02/a-modest-proposal-guns-for-the-poor
From the NY Times:
Where Housing Once Boomed, Recovery Lags
A growing body of research suggests that the recent recession may have brought an enduring shift in the geography of American growth. Places like Gwinnett County near Atlanta, Lake County, north of Orlando, and San Joaquin County in California’s central valley, where housing booms were fueled by borrowed money, may now become long-term laggards under the weight of those debts.
Various kinds of economic activity, including auto sales, fell more sharply and are rebounding more slowly in areas that had the highest debt burdens at the peak of the boom in 2006, according to a series of recent studies.
Jobs that depend on local spending, in restaurants and retail stores, were eliminated in larger numbers in high-debt areas. And the latest available data suggests that those jobs are returning more slowly, too.
“Typically where the recession hits hardest the comeback is more vibrant,” said Amir Sufi, a finance professor at the University of Chicago who is an author of several of the studies. “We’re not seeing that this time around.”
…
And the consequences remain in dispute. John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, argued at a conference in February that the areas hit hardest by the recession are recovering at the same speed, they simply have a longer road to travel.
“The link between house prices and regional economic activity is much clearer in the downturn than in the recovery,” Mr. Williams said.
But the ideas advocated by Professor Sufi and his academic allies are rapidly entering the mainstream. The White House highlighted their research in the annual Economic Report of the President, published in February.
And the theory rings true to Mr. Allen, the longtime Prince George’s contractor.
“People are scared to spend money right now,” he said.
Spring came early this year, and spring is when customers usually start calling, but Mr. Allen said this has been as quiet a spring as he can remember.
The new American household: 3 generations, 1 roof Multi-generation households are on the rise, as a growing number of people are living with parents to ease some of the financial pain in tough times. Les Christie April 03, 2012: 05:39 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) – As the economy continues to take a toll on consumers’ finances, a growing number of people are discovering that becoming roommates with mom and dad, or a 20- or 30-something son or daughter, helps to ease some of the financial pain in tough times.
As of 2010, 4.4 million U.S. homes held three generations or more under one roof, a 15% increase from 3.8 million households two years earlier, according to the latest data available from the Census Bureau.
When Alicia Moura’s father-in-law, Aecio D’Silva, retired from teaching at the University of Arizona in 2010 to pursue private-sector projects in aqua-culture and bio-fuel, he didn’t expect to wait long before his efforts paid off. But then the economy tanked, development funds dried up and his ventures languished.
Soon afterward, Alicia started experiencing some medical issues with her pregnancy and the family decided it would be best to move in together. Now everyone — Alicia, her husband, their two young daughters and the in-laws — live under one roof.
“We not only save money by having a joined household, but we save on stress, time and other resources by having in-home day care,” said Moura.
For multi-generational households, there is typically a nice payoff. Not only do they save money, but they are better able to avoid financial hardship.
The Pew Research Center reported that the poverty rate among those who live in multi-generational homes was 11.5% in 2009 (the most recent data available), compared to 14.6% for those who didn’t live with other adults other than their spouse or partner.
“It’s such an advantage to have multiple wage earners in the same household when the economy is still struggling.” said Nicolas Retsina, a lecturer at the Harvard Business School and one-time head of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Retsina said the multi-generational housing trend is one he expects will continue.
Freeing up finances. Leslie Bos, a mother of three who lives in Boston, asked her mother to move in with her when her mom had to leave her job as a social worker and go on disability due to health problems.
While Bos helped her mother out of a jam — her disability payments couldn’t even cover housing costs in Boston pricey real estate market — it has also saved Bos significantly over the years.
“The 10-year-olds still need minding after school so this has really cut my child care expenses,” said Bos, who works for a company that manages multi-family housing assets.
Census reported that “doubled up households,” those including at least one extra adult who is not enrolled in school and isn’t a spouse or partner, grew 10.7% to 21.8 million households in spring 2011, up from 19.7 million households four years earlier.
Many of those homes included adult children who flew back to the nest after being unable to find work. The number of 25- to 34-year olds living with their folks jumped by more than 25% between 2007 and 2001. Census reported.
Debby Bitticks’ adult daughter, Sandi Krul, moved back in so she could take a break from work and return to law school. Along with Sandi, came her husband and two young daughters. The entire clan live in the Bitticks’ Encino, Calif. home with Debby and her husband.
By combining the families, they are saving thousands of dollars a month in duplicate costs, giving Krul the opportunity to change the direction of her career without putting too much financial strain on her family.
Builders take note. “The recession caused doubling up to save money — and the story is still unfolding,” said Steve Melman, Director of Economic Services for the National Association of Home Builders.
The long-term impact, he said, is that more families will want bigger homes with more bedrooms to accommodate their extended families.
In fact, so many relatives are already moving in with one another that builders are starting to construct homes to accommodate them. Instead of offering a two-car garage, for instance, builders will design the house with a one-car garage and use the extra space for a guest room, explained Valerie Dolenga, a spokeswoman for Pulte Homes.
Home builder Toll Brothers has started incorporating multi-generational living arrangements directly into its designs — such as a guest suite with a kitchenette where a family room once may have been, according to Timothy Gehman, the company’s director of design. Previously, such accommodations were offered only as custom options.
When Rajendra Hariprashad, moved from Guyana to New York as a boy, he and his mom moved in with his grandparents. Now 34, Hariprashad lives in a four-bedroom home in Glen Oaks, N.Y., with his wife, 10-month-old son, parents, and his sister and brother-in-law and their two-year-old son.
All of the adults in the house are employed, making it easier to afford the four-bedroom, three-bath house, which cost about $600,000.
“But it’s more than a financial thing,” said Hariprashad. “Everyone thinks we should all have our own homes, but we’re so happy living together.”
Hariprashad said he envisions his family always staying together, even as the younger generation expands. “We’ll just need to buy a bigger house,” he said.
Good Morning New Jersey
Does a roving, marauding gang of post-apocalyptic zombie people count as a blended household?
Another day in hell.
Bust leaves market littered with homes under $10,000
David Massey for msnbc.com Real estate broker Ben Yonge with his new investment, a four-unit apartment building in Ocala, Fla., that he picked up for $25,000.
By Bill Briggs, msnbc.com contributor Ben Yonge stole away from a business conference last month to make a killing in real estate. As his colleagues broke for lunch, the Orlando broker closed on a nearby four-unit apartment building that in better times had fetched $120,000.
The price Yonge paid: $25,000.
The nation’s housing market is showing some signs of life, but the bust has left a glut of ultra-low-priced properties on the market – including thousands of homes nationwide priced at $10,000 or less. In 10 of the largest metro markets, there were at least 100 homes listed at $10,000 or below, including Atlanta (234), Baltimore (207) and Chicago (165), according to research conducted by Realtor.com for msnbc.com.
Yonge, president of Equity First Realty, a wholesale investment brokerage, called the prices in Orlando “absolutely ridiculous.”
David Massey for msnbc.com Handyman Wayne Millington installs new lock assemblies in a super low-priced apartment building that sold for $25,000 in Ocala, Fla.
“But these are the types of deals you can come across. There are $19,000 condos in the heart of Orlando,” Yonge said. “We could probably count 10 to 15 listings under $10,000 in the Orlando area right now.”
There were 11 homes in that price range available in Orlando in February, the most recent data available for the figure.
Some homes are so cheap that a 14-year-old girl was even able to save enough money to buy one as a rental property in Florida, where she paid $12,000, according to NPR.
And then there is Detroit, which has sustained one of the heaviest housing haymakers among all U.S. cities. In the Motor City, at least 2,300 homes can be had for $10,000 or cheaper, according to the Realtor.com analysis.
“Detroit just has a lot of the characteristics that were some of most hard-hit in the early part of the downturn,” said Steve Berkowitz, CEO of Move Inc., which operates Realtor.com. The median price for existing single-family homes sold in the Detroit area last year was only $54,000, according to the Realtors.
Among the thousands of American homes listed for less than five figures, most are foreclosures – and some individual properties are literally worthless because nobody even wants the land on which they sit, Berkowitz said.
The housing market is rebounding in fits and starts, with sales of existing homes up about 9 percent over year-earlier levels, bolstered by record-low mortgage rates.
But “we’re not surprised” at the sheer volume of super-cheap dwellings on the market, said Berkowitz, adding that so many of those properties must go through a lengthy bank-transaction process that accompanies foreclosure sales.
The number of homes listed at $10,000 and below has risen over the past year in 22 of the 146 metro areas examined by Realtor.com, including Fresno, Calif. (from seven homes under $10,000 to 17); Wichita, Kan. (from 35 to 50); Greensboro, N.C. (from 18 to 33); and Los Angeles (from 10 to 18).
Such bargain-basement properties are vanishing, however.
While 17 cities still had at least 100 homes available for $15,000 and under in February, the number of listings in that price range declined in 16 of those markets since last year, including Atlanta (from 1,249 to 595), Chicago (from 847 to 306), even Detroit (from 5,092 to 3,334), according to Realtor.com.
At the bottom end of the market, Berkowitz said, “I think what you’re seeing is some healing.”
But he cautions that anyone considering grabbing a dirt-cheap property as an investment should understand the community, to be sure a housing-recovery plan is in place or in the works. The best bet is to focus on “high-density areas where the land is in proximity to jobs.”
Opportunists like Ben Yonge are on the prowl.
His company plans to refurbish his newly purchased quadplex in Ocala with a fresh coat of paint, new carpeting and other small fixes.
“We’ll have it completely repaired and rental ready within a two-week period,” Yonge said. “Our property managers will go in and immediately start marketing these vacant four units for rent. So it will probably be 45 to 60 days to have them occupied. If they can then generate (in total) a $2,000 per month in rent, that’s about a 25 or 30 percent return on the investment.”
When Yonge drives around central Florida to check on his new units and other properties he arrives in a 2002 Cadillac Escalade – a car that cost him twice as much as the four super low-priced homes he just picked up.
Wait until the vultures come home to roost in NJ.
And they will. No one will be spared.
#3 – thanks for posting. i like seeing the comp killers. the one you posted the other day is amazing $2MM in 2005, sold for $999K this month. hardly a distressed sale…as they had it on the market for 5+ years.
both you showed are in Tenafly; do you know where avg per sq ft was in The Fly and where these comps now put it? do per sq footage #’s matter in NNJ?
BearsFan (from yesterday) – thanks for the oil tank referral. I have forwarded the links to my dad, now let’s see if he goes through with the purchase.
And the rising rents in our NYC apartment are just forcing us out into a cheaper apartment, not into a mortgage. We are moving next weekend actually. Two years ago when we moved in, rents were supposedly depressed and buildings were giving away a month or two in free rent. That didn’t last long. I wonder what two more years is going to bring.
Statement 1 –> In this year’s first quarter, there were a total of 2,311 closings, down 3.5% from the first quarter of 2011.
Statement 2 –> Streeteasy.com, which tracks contract signings across Manhattan in its quarterly market report, said 2,621 listings entered into contract during the quarter, up 23.5% from the same period in 2011.
Explain the difference in the two statements above. Closings are down but contracts are up? And the Mets have a chance of winning the World Series. Until you close, it means nothing.
grim [1],
Will the recovery begin in the starter home segment here as well?
Yes, and I just increased the price of my house by 10% because my house is special.
g – I can’t speak for NYC, but out here its approximately 5 days from offer to contract, and another 45 days to close. Which makes most Q1 closings the result of contacts inked in Q4.. Short sales excluded, of course.
The other thing to note is that we aren’t comparing against normal seasonal patterns with the last two years, so some comparisons are less valid simply because there were some atypical events that pushed sales up or down in prior periods.
For example, here was the Otteau March contracts graph (never got a chance to post it):
https://njrereport.com/images/otteau_march.jpg
Normal seasonal patterns have gone to hell over the last 3 years.
grim,
The other thing to note is that we aren’t comparing against normal seasonal patterns with the last two years, so some comparisons are less valid simply because there were some atypical events that pushed sales up or down in prior periods.
Like, unicorns suddenly attacking children? Or, feeding the squirrels is no longer required? Or, a drive-by occurrence on Franklin Turnpike? :o
grim [20],
Lack of winter, everything gets pulled forward. That, and perhaps some reality setting in on the sellers part.
Is Medco the unicorn, or the kid? From the Record:
Medco takeover expected to lead to North Jersey job cuts
The $29.1 billion takeover of Franklin Lakes-based Medco Health Solutions Inc. by Express Scripts Inc. is likely to lead to job cuts among Medco’s 2,000-plus employees in Bergen County, analysts said Monday.
“Express Scripts management will be running the combined company, and in my opinion, there will absolutely be layoffs at Medco,” said Anthony Vendetti, an analyst who follows Express Scripts for Maxim Group in New York. “How many, I don’t know. But there’s not going to be two accounting departments, two human resources departments, two legal departments” in the combined company.
…
A spokesman for St. Louis-based Express Scripts said the merger’s impact on the 4,000 Medco employees in New Jersey has not been determined. Medco is one of Bergen County’s largest employers.
“We wouldn’t speculate on any specific site or part of the organization,” said the Express Scripts spokesman, Brian Henry. “We will conduct a thorough analysis of our workforce, taking into account the needs of each business and each marketplace, to ensure we are best positioned to serve clients’ and patients’ needs while achieving a competitive cost structure.”
Express Scripts said the merger is expected to save $1 billion in one-time costs. A Wall Street analyst who spoke on background said that to achieve that number, Express Scripts would need to make “some major job cuts,” and he predicted that many would be in New Jersey.
Hey mikeinwaiting, you better get onto the nj.com blogs and protect your buddy mayor of Vernon. There’s a guy on nj.com under the handle vernonwhistleblower that claims the property tax reduction article is smoke and mirrors. He’s railing against Vernon town government. Apparently, that article grim posted the other day about the reduction in property taxes in Vernon has him pretty ticked off. He says everybody’s tax bills went up $200 -$300 4th quarter last year then down a measely $24/yr this year.
http://www.nj.com/forums/sussex/index.ssf?artid=176976
He then goes on to accuse the assesor of undervaluing her own property, then being awarded a possible $15,000 raise! Job well done :)
The $29.1 billion takeover of Franklin Lakes-based Medco Health Solutions Inc. by Express Scripts Inc. is likely to lead to job cuts among Medco’s 2,000-plus employees in Bergen County, analysts said Monday. Medco is one of Bergen County’s largest employers.
Sell? Sell to Whom?
Gary (25):
I know an employee of Medco. They told me the hatchet is going to drop pretty fast on a lot of people in the company in the very near future.
Sell to whom is right.
Brain 24 Always someone with an axe to grind, let them spout. By the way how about that beer in Wildwood, when you down there?
Medco employees are overpaid and underworked with amazing benefits. I know people there and they brag and brag about 9-5, child care amazing benefits.
Express Scripts bought them which is a tightly run ship. They need to clean out Medco. Most Medco people are working Moms milking the cash cow. I guess they will have to shop at payless with rest of us next year while they are home watching their kids for change. I least their husbands can finally come home to a clean house and a home cooked meal now that their wives are no longer “working women”
27 – Won’t be there that week. Maybe another time. :)
Brain if you would rather not post when your home will be unattended grim will give you my email if you ask as I am authorizing it. In my case no biggy 2 sons (19,22) home as working. God help the poor bast*rd who breaks in they would kill him , literally. May have to have Mom come up though, otherwise going to be some party at my place.
Ok , Brain next trip Kettle (long time poster on hiatus ) & I take to Mohawk house or Kroghs will let you know.
All Hype [26],
Eventually, the cracks widen and there’s no holding back the water any longer. The best (or worst) is yet to come.
It’s a changed world JJ. The men have to do the lady work too now. Your post made me so mad that after I finish changing this diaper and cooking my family a meal, I’m going to sweep the floor, get my quiche out of the oven, and take this apron off and kick somebody’s butt.
28.Brass Balls says:
April 3, 2012 at 9:46 am
Medco employees are overpaid and underworked with amazing benefits. I know people there and they brag and brag about 9-5, child care amazing benefits.
Express Scripts bought them which is a tightly run ship. They need to clean out Medco. Most Medco people are working Moms milking the cash cow. I guess they will have to shop at payless with rest of us next year while they are home watching their kids for change. I least their husbands can finally come home to a clean house and a home cooked meal now that their wives are no longer “working women”
Medco, last one in NJ turn out the lights.
Lots of nancy girls nowdays. I am so manly when I leave for work early in a snow storm my cock and balls as they scrap down front steps shovel them off then one power fart after my morning 120 ounce coffee vaporized the snow in my driveway and on the car and provides heat for all the widows and orphans within 30 miles.
Brian says:
April 3, 2012 at 9:54 am
It’s a changed world JJ. The men have to do the lady work too now. Your post made me so mad that after I finish changing this diaper and cooking my family a meal, I’m going to sweep the floor, get my quiche out of the oven, and take this apron off and kick somebody’s butt.
28.Brass Balls says:
April 3, 2012 at 9:46 am
Medco employees are overpaid and underworked with amazing benefits. I know people there and they brag and brag about 9-5, child care amazing benefits.
Express Scripts bought them which is a tightly run ship. They need to clean out Medco. Most Medco people are working Moms milking the cash cow. I guess they will have to shop at payless with rest of us next year while they are home watching their kids for change. I least their husbands can finally come home to a clean house and a home cooked meal now that their wives are no longer “working women”
BB 28 Not to worry there are plenty of Medco caliber jobs for those people in the land of unicorns. LOL
Brain it is OK to help around the house just don’t advertise, makes life hard on the rest of us.
Will CC try the defense of “I didn’t get them from ALEC, I got them from Google!”
http://mobile.nj.com/advnj/db_272900/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=P8NYpzUk&storycount=420&detailindex=2&pn=&ps=
I’m friends with the President/CEO of Medco International. He’s going to take his 8 figure golden parachute and live it up!
I help out around the house otherwise my wife wont let me get hard.
Mikeinwaiting says:
April 3, 2012 at 10:01 am
Brain it is OK to help around the house just don’t advertise, makes life hard on the rest of us.
As Jaimie Dimon once said at a meetng I was at every day you people show up to work and take a paycheck you are stealing form the company. It was a motivational meeting, but some person was asking for better benefits and Jaimie got upset. If only employees would work for free with no benefits us stockholders and bondholders could rejoice.
NJCoast says:
April 3, 2012 at 10:11 am
I’m friends with the President/CEO of Medco International. He’s going to take his 8 figure golden parachute and live it up!
Couldn’t agree more Brian. My wife works one day a weekend (12 hour shift) meaning I’m on baby/diaper duty from 6am to 8pm.
As for the starter home article argument, well, there are still some daddies who can afford to pay their kid’s down payments but I wouldn’t base a housing recovery on it.
http://marketmontage.com/2012/04/03/the-new-normal-mortgages-last-on-the-hierarchy-of-debt-to-pay-off/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+marketmontage%2Fxyz+%28Market+Montage%29
I guess Jamie Dimon works for free?
40.Brass Balls says:
April 3, 2012 at 10:14 am
As Jaimie Dimon once said at a meetng I was at every day you people show up to work and take a paycheck you are stealing form the company. It was a motivational meeting, but some person was asking for better benefits and Jaimie got upset. If only employees would work for free with no benefits us stockholders and bondholders could rejoice.
Please send him my way :)
NJCoast says:
April 3, 2012 at 10:11 am
I’m friends with the President/CEO of Medco International. He’s going to take his 8 figure golden parachute and live it up!
More on the Medco news.
“The acquisition raises questions about the Medco campus, a complex of more than 500,000 square feet on a sprawling, 166-acre property in a residential area not far from Route 208.
If Express Scripts makes significant job cuts, it may not need that much space. The building was built in 1971 by IBM, which moved out in 1993. Medco bought the building in 1997.
“It’s getting harder and harder to fill these big, empty office buildings,” said Thomas Reilly, managing director of the commercial real estate brokerage Jones Lang LaSalle Americas Inc. in Parsippany. “We’ve had limited white-collar job growth in New Jersey. … We don’t have that job-creation engine to come in and backfill these spaces.”
Most of the white collared jobs have been outsourced or give to H1 candidates who will work for peanuts. What we have left are dinks in huge mcmansions with an outsized mortgage who are driving on the turnpike/parkway recklessly.
This is a bit lengthy but it covers a lot of points. Note that if nothing is done, in a few months interest on federal student loans will increase from 3.4% to 6.8%.
Recovery threatened by runaway student loan debt
Apr 3, 9:39 AM (ET) By TOM RAUM
WASHINGTON (AP) – The federal student loan program seemed like a great idea back in 1965: Borrow to go to college now, pay it back later when you have a job.
But many borrowers these days are close to flunking out, tripped up by painful real-life lessons in math and economics.
Surging above $1 trillion, U.S. student loan debt has surpassed credit card and auto-loan debt. This debt explosion jeopardizes the fragile recovery, increases the burden on taxpayers and possibly sets the stage for a new economic crisis.
With a still-wobbly jobs market, these loans are increasingly hard to pay off. Unable to find work, many students have returned to school, further driving up their indebtedness.
Average student loan debt recently topped $25,000, up 25 percent in 10 years. And the mushrooming debt has direct implications for taxpayers, since 8 in 10 of these loans are government-issued or guaranteed.
President Barack Obama has offered a raft of proposals aimed at fine-tuning the system and making repayments easier. Yet the predicament of debt-burdened former students has failed to generate much notice in the GOP presidential campaign. Instead, the candidates are dismissive of government student loan programs in general and Obama’s proposals in particular.
Rick Santorum went so far as to label Obama “a snob” for urging all Americans to try to obtain some form of post-high-school education – even though some polls show over 90 percent of parents expect their children to go to college.
Front-runner Mitt Romney denounces what he calls a “government takeover” of the program. Newt Gingrich calls student loans a “Ponzi scheme” under which students spend the borrowed money now but will “have to pay off the national debt” later in life as taxpayers. And Ron Paul wants to abolish the program entirely.
Lifting student debt higher and higher is the escalating cost of attending schools, with tuition increasing far faster than the rate of inflation. And enrollment has been rising for years, a trend that accelerated through the recent recession, fueling even more borrowing.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, argues that government loans and subsidies are not particularly cost-effective for taxpayers because “universities and colleges just raise their tuition. It doesn’t improve affordability and it doesn’t make it easier to go to college.”
“Of course, it’s very hard on the kids who have gone through this, because they’re on the hook,” Zandi added. “And they’re not going to be able to get off the hook.”
It’s not just young adults who are saddled.
“Parents and the federal government shoulder a substantial part of the postsecondary education bill,” said a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. And some of the borrowers are baby boomers, near or at retirement age. The Fed research found that Americans 60 and older still owe about $36 billion in student loans.
Overall, nearly 3 in 10 of all student loans have past-due balances of 30 days or more, the report said.
Complicating the picture further: Like child support and income taxes, student loans usually can’t be discharged or reduced in bankruptcy proceedings, as can most other delinquent debt. This restriction was extended in 2005 to also include student loans made by banks and other private financial institutions.
“This could very well be the next debt bomb for the U.S. economy,” said William Brewer, president of the National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys.
“As bankruptcy lawyers, we’re the first to see the cracks in the foundation,” Brewer said. “We were warning of mortgage problems in 2006 and 2007. The industry was saying we’ve got it under control. Nobody had it under control. Now we’re seeing the same signs of distress. We’re seeing huge defaults on student loans and people driven into financial difficulties because of them.”
A report by his group noted that missing just one student loan payment puts a borrower in delinquent status. After nine months, the borrower is in default. Once a default occurs, the full amount of the loan is due immediately. For those with federal student loans, the government has vast collection powers, including the ability to garnishee a borrower’s wages and to seize tax refunds and Social Security and other federal benefit payments.
Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, said the student loan crisis may not torpedo the financial sector as the mortgage meltdown nearly did in 2008, but it could slam taxpayers and the still-ailing housing market.
“When student loans don’t get repaid, debts are going to be transferred from the borrower to the taxpayer,” further raising federal deficits, he said. And overburdened student-loan borrowers may fail to qualify for mortgages and “stay much longer in their parents’ homes,” Gault said. Young adults forming households have historically been the bulk of first-time home buyers – and their scarcity could dampen any housing recovery.
“When kids do graduate, the most daunting challenge can be the cost of college,” Obama said in his State of the Union address, asking Congress to extend a temporary cut – due to expire in July – in federal student-loan rates. The reduced federal rate is now 3.4 percent. It the cuts aren’t extended, it will rise to 6.8 percent.
Still, Obama said: “We can’t just keep subsidizing skyrocketing tuition. We’ll run out of money.”
Obama also asked Congress to extend the current tuition tax credit, double work-study jobs over five years and let borrowers consolidate multiple student loans at reduced interest rates.
But in this intensely partisan year, any congressional action seems dubious.
“I wish I could tell you that there’s a place to find really cheap money or free money and pay for everyone’s education, but that’s just not going to happen,” Romney says. “Now the government is taking over the student loan business. I think you’ll get less competition.”
The government has not taken over the student loan business. The private loan industry is still writing student loans, usually at interest rates far above the government ones.
What the Republicans are zeroing in on is a section in Obama’s health care overhaul that eliminated big banks as middlemen in managing federal school-loan programs. Also, the new federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is clamping down on the lightly regulated private student loan industry.
Santorum, who now says calling Obama a “snob” for promoting higher education was “probably not the smartest” choice of words, has been seeking to rally blue-collar support by emphasizing that many jobs do not require college degrees – and suggesting many colleges are liberal bastions.
“It’s getting harder and harder to fill these big, empty office buildings,” said Thomas Reilly, managing director of the commercial real estate brokerage Jones Lang LaSalle Americas Inc. in Parsippany. “We’ve had limited white-collar job growth in New Jersey. … We don’t have that job-creation engine to come in and backfill these spaces.”
Any questions?
Zack [46],
I’m at approximately 65% of my salary from 5 years ago, on hourly per diem, with not a whiff of perk or benefits. In fact, as a temp worker, you’re required to bring your own cleaning supplies in to scrub the sticky mess left by the last temp worker… usually consisting of “food” products from those classified as H1.
Surging above $1 trillion, U.S. student loan debt has surpassed credit card and auto-loan debt. This debt explosion jeopardizes the fragile recovery, increases the burden on taxpayers and possibly sets the stage for a new economic crisis.
With a still-wobbly jobs market, these loans are increasingly hard to pay off. Unable to find work, many students have returned to school, further driving up their indebtedness.
Average student loan debt recently topped $25,000, up 25 percent in 10 years. And the mushrooming debt has direct implications for taxpayers, since 8 in 10 of these loans are government-issued or guaranteed.
How’s that starter home segement working out for ya?
House Flipping is back in NJ?
http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2012/03/30/n_house_flipping.cnnmoney/?iid=HP_LN
We’ve just begun coming to grips with the Wimpy Recovery. Are we actually in for another recession? That was the implication of a couple of economic reports I read this week, including one by ITG Investment Research, which tracked how the pace of this recovery (which was never great to begin with) has by some measures been slowing, most particularly among middle income consumers and industries producing for overseas markets. (Europe is definitely into a double dip, and many emerging markets are slowing too, as I’ve written about many times.)
One of the most interesting snippets from the report: While there are fewer goods on sale in American malls and retail shops than there were last year around this time, what is on sale is being discounted at much steeper rates — and not just at dollar stores, but at outlets catering to middle as well as lower income people.
(MORE: We’ve Suffered a Jobless Recovery. Is a Recovery Without Growth Next?)
That’s not surprising given that the gains we’ve seen during this recovery have mainly accrued to the upper classes. Stocks are up, but it’s mostly rich people who own those. The residential real estate market, where most Americans keep the majority of their wealth, is still down. (I saw Robert Shiller for lunch last week and he said we’ve got years of pain still to go on that front.) Salaries are also down – there’s been almost no growth in real income throughout the wimpy recovery.
Read more: http://business.time.com/2012/04/03/is-the-wimpy-recovery-now-morphing-into-a-recession/#ixzz1qzVzIJxQ
CLINTON, Md. — Half a decade has passed since crowds of lunchtime workers regularly packed the Fish Market restaurant, a popular fixture of this southern Maryland crossroads known by the lighthouse on its roof.
Sales representatives for drug companies no longer buy hundreds of dollars in food for workers in the medical offices across the street. The private dining room, once a popular spot for business meetings and family parties, was closed in the fall.
The official statistics say that the national economy has been growing for almost three years, and that Maryland is growing faster than most states. But in Prince George’s County, where housing prices have fallen more than anywhere else in the state, there is scant evidence of renewed prosperity.
Auto sales are slowly improving nationwide, but car dealers here say the arrival of spring and tax refunds are failing once again to bring buyers to their lots. Contractors who built homes say they are glad for work fixing roofs.
“I don’t think you’ll find anyone in here who will tell you that it’s over,” said the Fish Market’s owner, Rick Giovannoni, gesturing at the half-empty tables.
He paused, then added: “Well, we are selling more drinks.”
A growing body of research suggests that the recent recession may have brought an enduring shift in the geography of American growth. Places like Gwinnett County near Atlanta, Lake County, north of Orlando, and San Joaquin County in California’s central valley, where housing booms were fueled by borrowed money, may now become long-term laggards under the weight of those debts.
Various kinds of economic activity, including auto sales, fell more sharply and are rebounding more slowly in areas that had the highest debt burdens at the peak of the boom in 2006, according to a series of recent studies.
Jobs that depend on local spending, in restaurants and retail stores, were eliminated in larger numbers in high-debt areas. And the latest available data suggests that those jobs are returning more slowly, too.
I think this is the house:
http://cocciarealestate.com/inc/pmisc?pid=1535
We’ll see what she sells it for.
51.Brian says:
April 3, 2012 at 11:00 am
House Flipping is back in NJ?
http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2012/03/30/n_house_flipping.cnnmoney/?iid=HP_LN
He is a worker. Did you know jaimie’s dad is a full time employee at chase. Jaimie read my weekly status report for one year. I feel I owe it to him to read what he says.
Brian says:
April 3, 2012 at 10:28 am
I guess Jamie Dimon works for free?
40.Brass Balls says:
April 3, 2012 at 10:14 am
As Jaimie Dimon once said at a meetng I was at every day you people show up to work and take a paycheck you are stealing form the company. It was a motivational meeting, but some person was asking for better benefits and Jaimie got upset. If only employees would work for free with no benefits us stockholders and bondholders could rejoice.
I’m sure he is. A lot of us are. The thing is, I see my relationship with my employer differently. I am a product of the labor market and I sell my skills to my employer. If he doesn’t like what an employee has to say or he thinks he’s paying them too much then he should just hire one of those offshore knucleheads from overseas.
If a boss here says sh1t like that to me I’m not afraid to call them out on it. I work like crazy sacrificing nights, weekends etc. Maybe the guy that asked for the raise was just a doofus and set him off or something.
55.Brass Balls says:
April 3, 2012 at 11:29 am
He is a worker. Did you know jaimie’s dad is a full time employee at chase. Jaimie read my weekly status report for one year. I feel I owe it to him to read what he says.
Mancovery is underway:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-03/american-men-dominate-jobs-recovery-taking-88-of-spots-economy.html
American Men Dominate Jobs Recovery Taking 88% of Spots: Economy
It took David Jeffrey more than a year to get back on his feet after losing his job at Sallie Mae. As of February, he is witness to the factory rebound that has boosted confidence among American men.
“If you’re not in manufacturing, jobs are hard to find,” said Jeffrey, 33, now a floor worker at a Panama City, Florida, plant for Arizona Chemical Ltd (ARZ)., a producer of biodegradable materials. “I have a lot of friends who are still out of work,” he said, thinking of some of the almost 700 people let go at the same time in late 2010 by the student-loan provider in the coastal resort town on Florida’s panhandle.
Men, who lost more than twice as many jobs as women during the worst economic slump since the Great Depression, have landed 88 percent of the non-farm jobs created since the recession ended in June 2009. The share of men saying the economy was improving jumped to 41 percent in March, compared with 26 percent of women, according to the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index’s monthly expectations gauge.
“The recovery is a mancovery,” said Heather Boushey, a senior economist at the Washington-based Center for American Progress. “I don’t see improvement for women in the past year, whereas for men this is the best year in years.”
The jobless rate for males 16 years old or older has dropped 2.3 percentage points since the recession ended, falling to 8.3 percent in February from 10.6 percent in June 2009. It has barely budged for women over the same period, moving to 8.2 percent from 8.3 percent, according to figures from the Labor Department.
Retail Sales
Retailers are taking notice of the divergence as men are propelling a revival in demand for items from pickup trucks to suits and underwear.
Part of the reason is that traditionally male-dominated fields like construction and manufacturing are waking from hibernation. Factories expanded in March at a faster pace, driven by gains in employment and production, a report from the Institute for Supply Management showed yesterday. Housing starts hovered in February near a three-year high and building permits rose to the highest level since October 2008, according to the Commerce Department.
Shares of companies in the two industries are climbing as a result. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Machinery Index (S15MACH), which includes companies like Caterpillar Inc. and Eaton Corp., is up 17 percent so far this year though yesterday. The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding (S15HOME) Index has advanced 22 percent.
Manufacturing Shares
Both measures have outpaced the gain in the broader market. The 500 Index has climbed 13 percent over the same period to reach the highest level since 2008. It fell 0.1 percent to 1,417.32 at 10:34 a.m. today.
An improving job market, rising stock prices and easier credit are combining to lift the American economy just as Europe slides into a recession and China’s economy decelerates, indicating the U.S. may be emerging as an engine of growth.
Because American voters look more favorably on the incumbent when the economy is picking up, the improved outlook for men may translate into more votes for President Barack Obama, who already has an advantage with women.
Obama won 56 percent of women and 49 percent of men in the last election, according to the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press in Washington. He now holds a 20-point advantage among women voters over Republican front-runner Mitt Romney and runs about even with men, Pew found in a March poll.
Construction Stabilizing
Alan Amdahl is living the change in construction’s prospects. After the collapse in subprime lending made credit hard to get, the Sioux Falls, South Dakota, builder had to cut about half of his full-time workers and took on renovations to bring in revenue.
Late last year, things picked up. Amdahl, 54, has added three people in recent months, bringing his staff to nine, and he’s still hiring. Business is so good he’s had to turn down work.
“I’ve sold more homes this year than I did all of last year,” said Amdahl, who has been self-employed for 35 years.
The percentage of men 20 years old and older who are employed has grown in the past two years and now stands at almost 68 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey (EMPWMEN). Women have lost ground in each of the past five years.
“Men and women saw the same rate of job loss in the first two years” of the recession, said Heidi Shierholz, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington research group funded in part by labor unions. “Since then, it’s not been equal. In the recovery, men have seen disproportionate job gains.”
Men’s Clothing
Retail sales reflect the shift. More men are hitting the mall to shop and brands that long have catered to women are trying to expand their customer base. Last year, men spent 4.2 percent more on clothes than a year earlier, compared with a 3.1 percent gain for women’s fashion, according to market research firm NPD Group Inc.
Large pickup trucks sales have been trending up since January 2011, from about 93,000 to nearly 120,000 in February, according to Ward’s Automotive Group, which compiles vehicle data. Sales of cars and light trucks climbed to a 15 million annual rate in February, the best showing in four years.
While men’s confidence in the economy is growing, it is still tempered by lingering effects of the downturn.
“The bottom line is men are still down a much greater number of jobs, a much greater percentage of jobs, than they were before the recession started,” Shierholz said. “They’re still in a deeper hole.”
Jeffrey knows that all too well. A month into his job, he and his wife are paying off bills and rebuilding their savings account, working to “repair the damage” done by his long unemployment, he said. Some of his friends still struggle.
“I know a lot of people who went from jobs making $40,000 and they’re working at Wal-Mart,” he said. “It’s still rocky.”
Gary,
Your predicament has been explained. You sound like some mumbo jumbo loser who has the stench of a layoff somewhere in your recent past. The US can only tolerate the sweet smell of success. You are now denigrated from here out as a second class citizen, huddled together with third world masses who are happy to have clean water and a mattress. Only Dimon types provide value to the financial world. You are a curry smelling freeloader now.
Hi Everybody! Rah Rah Rah! Shish boom bah! I’m cheerleading the economy! Join me! Hooray!
CNBC – Is This the Year of the Doomsayer? http://www.cnbc.com/id/46928373
Bystander [58],
Success: “Knowin’ how to spend it. I never ordered a Brandy in my life that wasn’t Cordon Bleu… I took two-hundred from shylocks, to see Sinatra at the Garden… sat two seats away from Tony Bennett. That’s success!”
brass (40)-
Coming from a guy who knows stealing inside out (Dimon), that’s quite a compliment.
LOL!
sx (52)-
All of that is because it’s not a wimpy recovery…it’s no recovery at all.
We’re in the Second Great Depression, and the media is being bribed/coerced into calling it recovery. Anyone with a brain stem and two eyes should know better.
I wonder if things in Italy before Mussolini took control resembled the current situation here. I have never encountered so many self-destructive, willingly ignorant people in my life.
Signs of the decline: The executive branch “demanding” that the judicial branch do the right thing. Disregard that document formerly known as The Constitution.
I hate cicadas. Fun to squish them though.
Just went out for a nice lunch. AHHH the sweet smell of meat sizzling on the grill. Thankfully, the H1 workers are around to cover the phones while us americans eat our fatty foood. No rush the flaphel truck will be there for the migrant IT workers.
gary (66)-
Dolt, the rule of law was long ago overrun.
Instead of rule of law, we now have invocations of “fairness”, “feelings” and “the public good”.
Then again, you look at a decision like Citizens United, and it seems as though the Supremes are just another bought/paid for bankster subsidiary.
#66 gary
I think O’s point, that the bill went through congress and was signed into law in the correct manner. So SCOTUS should follow the constitution and show judicial restraint.
72
Fabius, is that some kind of joke?
I can’t tell if you’re stating what you think Obama’s mindset was or if that is what you think should happen as well.
Of course, legislation must go through the proper channels and procedures in order for it to stand… but that is not the only requirement. If congress passed with sufficient majority and the president signed a law that the bill of rights no longer exist, is that OK? It went through the proper procedures…
Fab just because congress passed a law does not make it constitutional. the judiciary acts as an arena for citizens to petition the third branch of government to judge matters of constitutionality when the government oversteps its enumerated powers. You want to see judicial activism look at the NJ Supreme Court, Abbott and COAH their two most egregious examples. Not to say the supreme court hasn’t gotten a multitude of decisions wrong, but for the president to demand they kowtow to him and congress is at a minimum amateur. For a constitutional lawyer as his credentials claim, it is ridiculous and finally for a president dictatorial/authoritarian.
If the masses of muppets weren’t so somnolent, this guy wouldn’t win a state come November based on that statement alone.
Anyone care to pay a visit to Pork Barrel International Airport?
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/power-players-abc-news/murtha-airport-brought-american-taxpayers-100702844.html
“A mandate means that in some fashion, everybody will be forced to buy health insurance. … But I believe the problem is not that folks are trying to avoid getting health care. The problem is they can’t afford it. And that’s why my plan emphasises lowering costs.” – Barrack Obama – 2008
In February 2008, Obama said that you could no more solve the issue of the uninsured with an individual mandate than you could cure homelessness by ordering people to buy a home.
I have nothing further, your honor.
For a constitutional lawyer as his credentials claim, it is ridiculous and finally for a president dictatorial/authoritarian.
The guy is a sham, a fraud and a mope.
On its face, Obama’s comments are out of line, but given that he formerly taught Constitutional Law says everything you need to know about this guy…….his crew of clowns were sloppy and rushed to slap together this albatross, and he rightfully has to pay the price…..just STFU!
HEALTH INDUSTRY
Obama Warns Supreme Court
Says Overturn of Health-Care Law Would Be ‘Unprecedented, Extraordinary Step’.
By LAURA MECKLER and CAROL E. LEE
President Barack Obama predicted Monday that the Supreme Court would uphold his signature health-care law and said that overturning it would be a prime example of judicial overreach.
It was a rare instance of a president laying out his own arguments about a Supreme Court case before the justices are set to reach their decision.
[edit]
James Simon, a professor at New York Law School, said, “I can’t think of a president anticipating a court decision as Mr. Obama has done and basically arguing in favor” of his side. Mr. Simon, the author of several books on conflicts between presidents and the court, said, “Jefferson was very angry at the Marshall Court, but he [complained] in private,” as did most other presidents.
President Franklin Roosevelt “usually waited until they handed down a decision” before fulminating against the court, Mr. Simon said, such as when FDR blasted a 1935 ruling striking down portions of the National Industrial Recovery Act.
Mr. Simon said he doubted the justices “are going to be influenced one way or the other” by Mr. Obama’s words.
The End Is Nigh (James Bond Edition):
James Bond ditching the Martini “shaken, not stirred” for Heineken
James Bond may no longer be ordering his signature Martini, “shaken, not stirred.” Reports say Bond is switching to Heineken.
Ad Age reports that Daniel Craig will reach for a Heineken rather than his trademark cocktail in a scene from the upcoming Bond movie “Skyfall,” thanks to a deal Heineken USA has struck with the spy film franchise.
Craig will additionally star in a commercial for the brew to run globally, created by Wieden & Kennedy Amsterdam with “Skyfall” director Sam Mendes serving as a consultant. Craig will also appear as Bond on special packaging for the beer.
Heineken USA chief marketing officer Lesya Lysyj told the trade paper: “[James Bond] is a perfect fit for us. [He is] the epitome of the man of the world.”
The End Is Nigh (James Bond Edition):
James Bond ditching the Martini “shaken, not stirred” for Heineken
James Bond may no longer be ordering his signature Martini, “shaken, not stirred.” Reports say Bond is switching to Heineken.
Ad Age reports that Daniel Craig will reach for a Heineken rather than his trademark c-cktail in a scene from the upcoming Bond movie “Skyfall,” thanks to a deal Heineken USA has struck with the spy film franchise.
Craig will additionally star in a commercial for the brew to run globally, created by Wieden & Kennedy Amsterdam with “Skyfall” director Sam Mendes serving as a consultant. Craig will also appear as Bond on special packaging for the beer.
Heineken USA chief marketing officer Lesya Lysyj told the trade paper: “[James Bond] is a perfect fit for us. [He is] the epitome of the man of the world.”
Some readers might think there is a lot of information to digest in this article. I think it’s so clear and well formatted that it’s easy to read and digest. This writing is nicely done. http://www.samsung1080phdtv.net/
Health-care? Who-cares? Michelle Obama will be on the Biggest Loser next week to take part in the show’s first-ever White House workout. I am gonna need to run out and buy more ice cream to watch this episode!
I don’t care that he’s not drinking a martini. I’m more upset that he chose a skunky beer. I’m not a fan of the heiney.
79.chicagofinance says:
April 3, 2012 at 2:53 pm
The End Is Nigh (James Bond Edition):
#73 joyce
If it gets ratified then yes.
Americas a great country. I have never been so drunk in my life to hook up with someone who looks like her. Yet she is first lady. Hate to see her in a Bikini
Juice Box says:
April 3, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Health-care? Who-cares? Michelle Obama will be on the Biggest Loser next week to take part in the show’s first-ever White House workout. I am gonna need to run out and buy more ice cream to watch this episode!
Fab I don’t think you know the difference between a law and an ammendment to the constitution.
Joyce, et al, I use Fab’s # 83 post as exhibit #1 for the abolishment of the public education system and means testing for voters. If you don’t understand how the government works you have no right to participate in it.
#74 pain
If I want to see judicial activism I just look at what the chief justice has put on the docket.
This is a call for judiacial restraint as the Rehnquist court used to run. With so many ways to interpret, unless this is egregiously unconsitiutional, defer to congress.
BB – Deflation in action – apparently a quick roadside tuneup on the Upper West Side is only $5 these days.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ama-yawson/george-zimmerman-trayvon-martin_b_1399944.html
#85 pain
Is there anouther way to remove the Bill of Rights ( which is what he was asking) outside of an amendment.
Heard the O man’s speech this afternoon to the Associated Press. Seems to me someone perhaps leaked the Supremes preliminary vote.
#76 gary
That first quote on affordability could sum up the whole healthcare arguement. Like your arguement on property taxes the cost of healthcare has doubled in the last decade and without reform will continue to spirial upwards.
89
Fabius,
she not he please ;)
And I did say “pass a law” not amendment, which was my point, that congress (and the executive through EO or regulations) cannot just do whatever they please without the authority expressly permitted in the constitution
And to what you said (87), if it’s just a little bit unconstitutional, which is to say unlawful, then that’s ok… great idea (sarcasm)
91
Fabius,
Yes, costs will continue to spiral until implosion. That is to say without reform, but this healthcare bill is not reform. It continue’s all of the problems associated with high cost drivers and creates some more as well.
#92 joyce
Its more a case where two parts of the consituttion go agaist each other how do you rule?
Which two sections?
Fab we could apply that argument to everything by that logic, college, houses and cars are expensive should we legislate requirments on the populace for them in the name of fairness as well? Affordable healthcare is no more a right than buying a suit. It is an economic activity that has become expensive for a multitude of reasons, participation in a government run health plan (medicaid, medicare) being one of them.
what does not change is the douche chavez wanna be in the white house trying to bully his way around the functions of government which inhibit his grand plans.
Cash for Clunkers, Financial Aid and Fannie and Freddie Loans takes care of Cars, school and homes. Whats the big deal about health care? The US govt already takes care of everyone 65 and older.
Painhrtz – I ain’t dead yet says:
April 3, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Fab we could apply that argument to everything by that logic, college, houses and cars are expensive should we legislate requirments on the populace for them in the name of fairness as well? Affordable healthcare is no more a right than buying a suit. It is an economic activity that has become expensive for a multitude of reasons, participation in a government run health plan (medicaid, medicare) being one of them.
97
Yes, and it’s not like there is a 15 trillion dollar debt and a whole host of other problems. Maintain course, all is well, steady as she goes.
#95 joyce
How about right to know vs right to privacy.
#93- Had a Heath care discussion last week with my cousin who is a Nurse in Ireland. She said about 50% of the Irish population buy private health care insurance if they want to survive the waiting lists or want a private room if they get sick. Those that don’t go on a single payer government program and sometimes waiting lists that might require a long wait for treatment.
Anecdotal but if my Uncle who passed away three years ago did not have the private plan called VRI he would not have had his own room when he was dying of cancer. Another Uncle who had a massive stroke did not have private heath care insurance but was on the gov single payer program. He had to share a room with 4 or 5 other people who were dying as well. I think he spent a few weeks listening to others moan and groan and die. Imagine spending your remaining days in a room full of other dying people, I think it would drive most people mad enough to ask for an injection to end it all as he did.
I think socializing it all here will force all of us to accept a lower level of care when we need it. Call it what it is there is a class system in every country in the world, even the communists had waiting lists and people who could afford to cut the lines. I would rather cut the line when I need a new liver instead of waiting for Johnny Sixpack who blew his live out drinking cheap beer to get his first.
JJ if it wasn’t for all that garbage you would be a richer corporate raider
99
The right to know what specifically?
And which sections?
If the Supremes let Obamacare stand, I guess we could all be mandated to buy IPads or cars or whatever else Congress votes on.
I understand the thinking of the five conservative judges but I’m looking forward to hearing how the four bobblehead liberals justify that it’s ok to make me buy something I didn’t ask for and that it’s ok to congress to keep doing it over and over.
Dan,
They will do what they always do. They will use as justification garbage rulings in the past to set, yet again, a horrible precedent.
Doesn’t Ireland have too many people anyhow? They really only need 50% of the population anyhow.
Juice Box says:
April 3, 2012 at 4:36 pm
#93- Had a Heath care discussion last week with my cousin who is a Nurse in Ireland. She said about 50% of the Irish population buy private health care insurance if they want to survive the waiting lists or want a private room if they get sick. Those that don’t go on a single payer government program and sometimes waiting lists that might require a long wait for treatment.
Anecdotal but if my Uncle who passed away three years ago did not have the private plan called VRI he would not have had his own room when he was dying of cancer. Another Uncle who had a massive stroke did not have private heath care insurance but was on the gov single payer program. He had to share a room with 4 or 5 other people who were dying as well. I think he spent a few weeks listening to others moan and groan and die. Imagine spending your remaining days in a room full of other dying people, I think it would drive most people mad enough to ask for an injection to end it all as he did.
I think socializing it all here will force all of us to accept a lower level of care when we need it. Call it what it is there is a class system in every country in the world, even the communists had waiting lists and people who could afford to cut the lines. I would rather cut the line when I need a new liver instead of waiting for Johnny Sixpack who blew his live out drinking cheap beer to get his first.
“I understand the thinking of the five conservative judges but I’m looking forward to hearing how the four bobblehead liberals justify that it’s ok to make me buy something I didn’t ask for and that it’s ok to congress to keep doing it over and over. ”
Playing Ginsberg, et. others on the left:
A person who des not buy insurance adversely affects THE MARKET by raising the cost for everyone.
So, by that reasoning:
People who fail to buy milk lower the demand for milk, thus lowering the price of milk, thus hurting farmers across state lines. Tovarish, you WILL buy milk, and you will like it.
People who hold cars for longer than four years, hurt demand for new cars, thus…..
Well, one gets the picture.
First-timers are also the ones most likely to put their hands onto a hot stove burner.
The government makes us “buy” things all the time and there’s nothing we can do about it. Think federal taxes, state taxes, property taxes, social security. You also have to have auto insurance – no way around it. Paying for health care will just be one more item.
107 –
Let me tell you, it still hurts!
“You also have to have auto insurance – no way around it”
Don’t drive. No insurance required. Next!
oh btw – the problem with health care costs is that doctors and other health care providers get paid to much.
Fab: Are you making a rhetorical argument, or do you actually believe what you posted? If it is the former, then you should at least come clean……
Fabius Maximus says:
April 3, 2012 at 2:24 pm
#66 gary I think O’s point, that the bill went through congress and was signed into law in the correct manner. So SCOTUS should follow the constitution and show judicial restraint.
110
Don’t get sick – don’t need health care (good luck)
http://nj1015.com/atlantic-city-no-longer-2-gambling-market-in-u-s/
No problem ,lets build more Casinos and lets have more Bus Lanes on the Parkway,no wait, let’s have a High speed train from NYC, yes that’s the way to go.
AC is finished . Close half the Casinos and then maybe some will make it.
Good luck to the Revel as they take market share from Harrahs and Bogata
Congress should not be enacting requirements that people buy private products just because they are alive. Don’t kid yourselves, this is just the opening salvo in the pust to a single payer system; which might be good policy or bad policy but, all this is just the opening move.
Kind of boring and long, but at least more thoughtful than most…….albeit Cochrane on a personal basis is an a-hole…..
WSJ Op-Ed
OPINION
What to Do on the Day After ObamaCare
The president’s lawyer said ‘Insurance has become the predominant means of paying for health care in this country.’ But whose fault is that? Shouldn’t we bring the cash market back?.
By JOHN H. COCHRANE
Last week, the Supreme Court heard arguments on the constitutionality of the administration’s health law, aka ObamaCare. Opponents are giddy with the possibility that the law might be struck down.
But what then? Millions of uninsured, both those who choose not to purchase coverage and those who can’t due to pre-existing conditions, will still be with us. The rising costs and inefficient delivery of health care will still be with us.
The country can have a vibrant market for individual health insurance. Insurance proper is what pays for unplanned large expenses, not for regular, predictable expenses. Insurance policies should be “guaranteed renewable”: The policy should include a right to purchase insurance in the future, no matter if you get sick. And insurance should follow you from job to job, and if you move across state lines.
Why don’t we have such markets? Because the government has regulated them out of existence.
Most pathologies in the current system are creatures of previous laws and regulations. Solicitor General Donald Verrilli explained as much in his opening statement to the Supreme Court: “The individual market does not provide affordable health insurance,” he noted, “because the multibillion dollar subsidies that are available” for the “employer market are not available in the individual market.”
Start with the tax deduction employers can take for their contributions to group health-insurance policies—but which they cannot take for making contributions to employees for individual, portable insurance policies. This is why you have insurance only so long as you stay with one employer, and why you face pre-existing conditions exclusions if you change jobs.
Continue with the endless mandates (both state and federal) on insurance companies to provide all sorts of benefits people would otherwise not choose to buy. It sounds great to “make insurance companies pay” for acupuncture. But that raises the premiums, and then people choose not to buy the insurance. Instead of these mandates, at least allow people to buy insurance that only covers the big expenses.
What about Medicare and Medicaid? Two words: premium support. The underlying point of premium support is simple. If insurance costs $5,000 and the government gives an individual a $4,500 voucher, that individual will still feel the correct economic signal to shop for cost-efficient health insurance and health care.
The main argument for a mandate before the Supreme Court was that people of modest means can fail to buy insurance, and then rely on charity care in emergency rooms, shifting the cost to the rest of us. But the expenses of emergency room treatment for indigent uninsured people are not health-care’s central cost problem. Costs are rising because people who do have insurance, and their doctors, overuse health services and don’t shop on price, and because regulations have salted insurance with ever more coverage for them to overuse.
If we had a deregulated, competitive market in individual catastrophic insurance, that market would be so much cheaper than what’s offered today that we would likely not even need the mandate.
Meanwhile, staggeringly inefficient markets for health care itself need a thorough, competition-focused deregulation. Americans will know there’s a healthy market when hospitals post prices on their websites, and when new hospital and health-care businesses routinely enter to challenge the old ones. Here too regulations keep competition at bay.
The number of new doctors is still restricted, thanks to Congress and the American Medical Association. Congress caps the number of residencies, the AMA has fought the expansion of medical schools, state tests make it difficult for foreign doctors to work here, and on and on.
There are hundreds of government impediments to competition. New hospitals? In my home state of Illinois, every new hospital, expansion of an existing facility or major equipment purchase must obtain a “certificate of need” from the Illinois Health Facilities Planning Board. The board does a great job of insulating existing hospitals from competition if they are well connected politically. Imagine the joy United Airlines would feel if Southwest had to get a “certificate of need” before moving in to a new city—or the pleasure Sears would have if Wal-Mart had to do so—and all it took was a small contribution to a well-connected official.
The result is a monstrous system in which insurance patients are gouged to subsidize Medicare, and cash patients are gouged most of all. Here’s Mr. Verrilli again: “Insurance has become the predominant means of paying for health care in this country.” Yes, the cash market has been badly damaged. Whose fault is that? Shouldn’t we bring it back?
Group health plans in today’s system may appear reasonable enough—they seem to resemble “buyers’ clubs,” where people pool together to get good deals from providers. But in a real buyer’s club, each buyer still pays his own bill—you don’t go into a Sam’s Club and haul off whatever you can with only a fixed $20 copayment. And real buyer’s clubs don’t depend on where you work. Real buyers’ clubs for health services could be a useful way to get competition going and revive the cash-and-carry market for individuals.
A deregulated health-care and health-insurance market can work. We can at least start by removing the obvious elephants in the room: all the legislation, regulation and interventions that needlessly keep prices up, keep competition and innovation out, shelter people from the economic consequences of their decisions, and prevent the emergence of real insurance that follows you from job to job and from health to illness and back.
Mr. Cochrane is a professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute.
A version of this article appeared April 3, 2012, on page A15 in some U.S. editions of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: What to Do on the Day After ObamaCare.
From above
“Meanwhile, staggeringly inefficient markets for health care itself need a thorough, competition-focused deregulation. Americans will know there’s a healthy market when hospitals post prices on their websites, and when new hospital and health-care businesses routinely enter to challenge the old ones. Here too regulations keep competition at bay. “
also:
“Group health plans in today’s system may appear reasonable enough—they seem to resemble “buyers’ clubs,” where people pool together to get good deals from providers. But in a real buyer’s club, each buyer still pays his own bill—you don’t go into a Sam’s Club and haul off whatever you can with only a fixed $20 copayment. And real buyer’s clubs don’t depend on where you work. Real buyers’ clubs for health services could be a useful way to get competition going and revive the cash-and-carry market for individuals.”
John
Car insurance is from the State level, and you don’t have to buy it if you’re not driving a car (I don’t agree with this mandate either but that’s a separate issue)
Health insurance would be from the Federal level, and they’re trying to make you buy it as a condition of existence
any other incorrect paralles you with to draw?
And taxes are very different. Depending on the form and manner of taxation, the government must follow different rules. That being said, they are allowed to spend it on non-authorized functions. [the fact that they do it all the time does not make it right] I would rail against the past, current, and future potential unlawful acts by the government at all level … I don’t pick and choose. If we want the Federal government to obtain new powers (I do not), then we must amend the constitution. Not caring about process is akin to advocating anarchary.
My observation of the folks on the left of this debate is that they are confusing policy with constitutionality. The law may be good policy — as it, on paper, solves a huge problem; however, it strikes me as an overambitious use of the Commerce Clause. SCOTUS has no business debating the wisdom of the policy, they should only concern themselves with the constitutionality of the law. The liberals seem to want to solve the problem so badly that they are willing to overlook the constitutional issues. To do so is misguided.
You can call them “incorrect parallels” if you want – bottom line is were obligated in a host of ways constantly in our daily lives whether they be financial or otherwise. I need building permits, need a CO in my house, have to remove buried oil tanks, register for selective service – the list is seemingly endless and annoying. To add mandatory health care to the mix seems reasonable to me. The “supremos” may not agree and so be it if they don’t – but an argument can be made.
John,
Why are you assuming the past and current mandates were not also unconstitutional? As I said in a separate post, using an unlawful precedent from the past to justify something now is still wrong.
“I need building permits, need a CO in my house, have to remove buried oil tanks, register for selective service – the list is seemingly endless and annoying. ”
The KEY point is that you purchase those services from government, not a profit-making industry.
Shore,
I think the better analogy is Tovarish pays the farmer a small amount and picks up enough milk for his family to survive for the week if needed..on the other hand, all month long, Oleg decides to buy only toilet vodka then suddenly realizes he desperately needs a months worth of milk now. He expects the farmer to devote all his cows and resources to getting the milk. He does..then stiffs the farmer. Farmer raises the prices on Tovarish and others.
The law’s benefits may be real, and the law may solve a huge problem; however, I just do not see it is passing constitutional muster. Just wait until a republican president gets congress to pass a law mandating that every home have firearms.
if anyone here has an extra Bruce ticket, let me know and I will meet you at the arena.
122
“using an unlawful precedent from the past to justify something now is still wrong
Regardless if they’re “unlawful” try living in this country not adhering to the mandates – there are real consequences.
btw this is interesting:
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-empires-really-work-2012-4
123
Oil tank removal companies and car insurance companies do it for the money (profit).
I’ve thought about it some more:
If you promise not to get sick or require medical services – I think it fair you get to opt out of mandatory health insurance.
If you promise not to get in any car accidents – I think its fair you’re not required to get car insurance.
btw – housing price rise in NJ is inherently stifled by increasing property taxes that negate any positives as affordability will remain stretched.
46.
“Most of the white collared jobs have been outsourced or give to H1 candidates who will work for peanuts. What we have left are dinks in huge mcmansions with an outsized mortgage who are driving on the turnpike/parkway recklessly.”
LMAO!
John [138];
Dull logic. I’m shure it gets yuks from Fabius and the Democratic Underground, but thinking people know better. People don’t have to impose their health care costs on others, they can pay for it as they go.
On the other hand, the only escape from the individual mandate is penury or death. I suppose socialists are indifferent to which their subjects choose.
shore (115)-
Once they collect all our personal information (which is a big part of what they really want), they’ll let the whole wacko Obamacare thing spin out of control (which is their real intention), then call for single payer as “the only rational way forward”.
Then, we will have reached our Fahrenheit 451 moment.
#100 Juice
That is a perfect model for the US. There is a basic level of service available to all. Call it meatball triage and rationing. The people can then use market forces to upgrade their level of service. The more you are willing to pay, they better the service.
The big flaw in the Irish system is that when the private providers mess up, they dump the patients into the public system and let the public system clean up the mess.
#102 Joyce
I would say 1st vs 4th, freedom of the press against right to but GWB threw the 4th under the bus.
gluteus (133)-
Did you immigrate here from Jupiter?
#106 Shore
I like to think of it in terms of death. Everyone dies. Maybe if your family will spring for a nice funeral. Maybe Fred or Robert sold you a burial insurance plan to cover the costs. If your estate can cover the cost of disposal it will be used. If all those avenues are closed, the tax payer is left to dispose of you.
I see the mandate like your estate, if the estate can cover your burial costs it will be used. If the estate is zero, the government covers the basic disposal.
#112 Chi
I think of it in terms of Jefferson. I believe the constitution has to evolve to stay relevant. Especially in the past 50 to 100 years it has not kept pace with society and technology. It has been pulled in so many directions in 200 years that we should question if it is still effective.
“I am not an advocate for frequent changes in laws and constitutions, but laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind. As that becomes more developed, more enlightened, as new discoveries are made, new truths discovered and manners and opinions change, with the change of circumstances, institutions must advance also to keep pace with the times. We might as well require a man to wear still the coat which fitted him when a boy as civilized society to remain ever under the regimen of their barbarous ancestors.”
#116
“Millions of uninsured, both those who choose not to purchase coverage and those who can’t due to pre-existing conditions, will still be with us. ”
I think the term “choose not to purchase coverage” is a bit dishonest. Do people who cannot afford to purchase coverage fall under the choice banner. The cheapest policy I have found in NJ for a family of four is around $850/month. That just about cleans out the salary of a full time worker on minimum wage. Is healthcare or food a realistic choice?
#120 Shore
The argument is that as healthcare makes up 18% of our economy, the Commerce Clause comes into effect.
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