From Bloomberg:
Home Prices Rose Most in Two Decades in March, FHFA Says
U.S. home prices jumped 1.8 percent in March, the biggest monthly increase in at least two decades, as the housing recovery builds momentum, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said today.
The rise from February exceeded all analysts’ estimates, which ranged from a decline of 0.2 percent to a gain of 0.7 percent. Compared with a year earlier, prices surged 2.7 percent, the FHFA said in a statement.
Record-low mortgage rates, job gains and a dwindling inventory of properties available for sale have combined to strengthen demand for homes. Purchases of previously owned U.S. houses climbed 3.4 percent in April to a 4.62 million annual rate, the first increase in three months, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday.
“Increased affordability and a somewhat smaller inventory of homes for sale are positively impacting house prices,” Andrew Leventis, principal economist with the FHFA in Washington, said in the statement.
The FHFA report measures changes in real estate values using purchases of properties with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae (FNMA) or Freddie Mac. (FMCC) It doesn’t provide a specific price for homes. The monthly increase was the largest in records going back to 1991, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The average estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 0.3 percent monthly gain.
…
“Prices are hitting a bottom,” Patrick Newport, an economist for IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, said yesterday in a telephone interview. “It’s good news because it means that consumer wealth that comes from a home is no longer dropping.”
Good morning Mike Good morning NJ
From HousingWire:
Zillow: Nearly one-third of mortgaged homes underwater
The negative equity problem for U.S. homeowners might be worse than previously thought, at least according to a new measure from Zillow.
The online real estate data provider, in its first negative equity report, said 15.7 million, or 31.4%, of homeowners were underwater on their mortgages in the first quarter. That’s up from 31.1% three months earlier but down from 32.4% in the first quarter 2011.
Homeowners owed $1.2 trillion more than the value of their homes in the first quarter, according to Zillow.
With roughly 10% of homeowners 90-days-plus delinquent on payments, negative equity “remains only a paper loss” for most, said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries.
“As home values slowly increase and these homeowners continue to pay down their principal, they will surface again,” Humphries said in a news release.
I think this one just about sums it up, from AdvisorOne. Note the wide polarity of opinion in this piece, I think it’s very indicative of the perceptions in the market these days. We’re not arguing over a 1 percent decline vs a 1 percent increase, it’s armageddon vs utopia (ok, ok, I exaggerate):
Bull Kiesel, Bear Shilling Clash Over Housing
Housing bear and AdvisorOne contributor Gary Shilling and housing bull Mark Kiesel of PIMCO debated the state of the U.S. housing market on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart” on Tuesday.
Shilling (left) said that housing prices will decline 20% this year because “there are 2 million inventories, both visible and shadow inventories, over and above normal working levels,” which is “a tremendous overhang.” He went on to say that “excess inventories are the mortal enemy of prices.”
Kiesel justified his bullish stance on the market, saying that, “all inventories you look at, whether new existing or shadow, they are coming down” and “there is only 144,000 new home sales for sale. That’s at a 49-year low.”
Kiesel on purchasing a home in California and whether he’s having buyer’s remorse:
“No. I will say it is a little chaotic because there are a lot of boxes around. I think after renting for six years, my view is that housing prices have fallen about 35% and the inventories are coming down and banks are starting to lend again gradually. U.S. housing looks very cheap relative to international housing. I feel good about putting some money into housing right now.”
Shilling on why housing prices will decline 20% this year:
“Because of excess inventories. We estimate that there are 2 million inventories, both visible and shadow inventories over and above normal working levels. That is a lot. Back in normal times, we built about a million and a half houses a year, so two and a half million is a tremendous overhang. Excess inventories are the mortal enemy of prices. What may happen here is that now that the robo-signing flap is settled and the big banks settled for $25 billion with the various state attorneys general and the federal government, they have been holding off on foreclosures because they had enough bad PR. Now they have settled that, I think they will go back to foreclosures. The National Association of Realtors says that when foreclosed houses are sold, they sell at a discount of 19% to existing houses and that drags everything down when you get a big dumping of these houses on the market. I’m looking for another 20% decline and that is what it would take to bring them back to the long-term averages. They go back to 1890 in terms of median single-family house prices.”
Just a note, NJ did piss poor in the March FHFA Numbers.
One Year Change: -4.01%
Quarter Change: -1.44%
Five Year Change: -20.14%
From the MSA Perspective, a bit better in the Haughty North:
New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ (MSAD)
One Year Change: -1.05%
Quarter Change: 1.34%
Five Year Change: -15.11%
Edison-New Brunswick, NJ (MSAD)
One Year Change: -5.61%
Quarter Change: -2.23%
Five Year Change: -20.28%
Good Morning Funnel And You Too New Jersey
Good businessman or bad? Can’t tell so easily.
From AOL:
Terrell Owens Faces 3rd Foreclosure This Year
Marking another chapter in the saga of Terrel Owens’ real estate woes, the former NFL star reportedly faces foreclosure on a condo that he owns in the Trump International Resort of Sunny Isles Beach, Fla.
Deutsche Bank is attempting to foreclose on the unit, GossipExtra reports. The wide receiver, who raked in over $80 million during his controversial National Football League career, took out a $1.4 million loan in 2006 to buy the unit, then priced at $1.75 million. But he stopped making his mortgage payments in the fall of 2011, GossipExtra says.
Owens, who was released from the Dallas Cowboys following his repeated clashes with teammates, is no stranger to mortgage trouble. In the past two years the mercurial athlete has had to swallow four disappointing real estate hand-offs. Two of the football star’s Dallas properties succumbed to foreclosure early this year. While one of the units sold at a sheriff’s sale, Owens managed to offload another just before its auction date, The Dallas Morning News reports.
Prior to those transactions, Owens sold another Dallas condo in a short sale for close to a $1 million loss, and in 2010, he reportedly cut loose a Moorestown, N.J., property for less than half of the $3.9 million he paid for it.
From CNBC:
Refinancing Now: Lower Rates, Fees Coming Soon
The government is about to make refinancing FHA mortgages more affordable — and potentially easier — for hundreds of thousands of homeowners.
The Federal Housing Administration will reduce mortgage fees significantly for borrowers who qualify for the FHA’s streamline refinance program. The lower fees go into effect June 11 and will be available to borrowers who refinance loans that were endorsed by the FHA before June 2009.
“If you had your loan endorsed prior to that, this is your chance to save money with a streamline refi,” says Ed Conarchy, a mortgage planner at Cherry Creek Mortgage in Gurnee, Ill.
In the streamline program, the FHA asks for limited documentation from borrowers and doesn’t require an appraisal of the home. The no-appraisal rule allows owners to refinance even if they owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth.
…
The new, lower fees will make streamline refinances much more feasible to borrowers, Conarchy says.
When the new fees take effect, a borrower refinancing $200,000 will pay $20 — instead of $3,500 — in upfront mortgage insurance. The borrower also will pay about $92 — instead of $208 — per month for annual mortgage insurance.
Another day in hell.
Time to buy people. A home purchase with fixed rate mortgage is a long dated call on inflation, and after a few years of 1% mortgage rates and subsequent rounds of qe, inflation is the goal. Dont fight the fed.
Strategic Defaults Were Worth It http://ochousingnews.com/news/strategic-default-pays-off-as-defaulters-repurchase-at-lower-prices?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/underwater-mortgages-plague-housing-market-092300281.html?l=1
All not well across the pond , adding insult to injury some new data.
UK Q1 GDP revised down to -0.3% Q/Q from -0.2% preliminary reading. GDP revised down to -0.1% Y/Y from 0.0% preliminary.
Former J.P. Morgan Lobbyist Manages Banking Committee Expected To Investigate J.P. Morgan’s Trading Loss
“Luckily for Dimon, the professional staff in charge of managing the banking committee will be quite familiar to him and his team of lobbyists. That’s because the staff director for the Senate Banking Committee is none other than a former J.P. Morgan lobbyist, Dwight Fettig.
In 2009, Fettig was a registered lobbyist for J.P. Morgan. His disclosures show that he was hired to work on “financial services regulatory reform” and the “Restoring American Financial Stability Act of 2009″ on behalf of the investment bank. Now, as staff director for the Senate Banking Committee, he will be overseeing the hearings on J.P. Morgan’s risky proprietary trading.”
http://www.republicreport.org/2012/jpmorgan-banking-committee/
Neanderthal – from yesterday. “20% discount from 2006” ? Reread and see if you can uncover the lack of critical thinking here. You’re buying/bought for the same reason I bought my 1970 Fiat 124 Spider convertible in 1979. You’re 19 years old and you just want it and you can’t think of anything else except how cool you’ll be, how cool you’ll look and how cool people will think you are. You are 19, right?
The funny thing about my purchase is that i m not motivated primarily by price, which is what i thought my first purchase would be. Its about a 20% discount from 2006, not a spectacular deal. But we have a need and desire and i can no longer stand the concept of renting so we are pulling trigger. Throigh this priocess i understand my fellow sheeple much better.
It’s a shame that the American people can’t afford their own lobbyists.
Wonderful website. Lots of helpful info here. I’m sending it to a few buddies ans additionally sharing in delicious. And naturally, thank you on your sweat!
[15] grim, lobbyists – I support the plan of commodity trader Jim Rogers – Have all congressmen and senators telecommute from their home districts. Have them debate and vote on legislation from a public hall right in their home state with their constituents breathing down their neck. Changes the whole lobbying game too as lobbyists have to disperse all across the country instead of having access to all the pols in one place. I would love to see my congressman and Senators do their job with a bunch of retired and unemployed constituents from their state watching their every move. I would take some days off myself to watch over them just the same.
HE (13)-
Once again, nothing will change until we develop the cojones to start rounding these people up, standing them against a wall and shooting them between the eyes.
Its like you read my thoughts! You appear to understand a lot about this, like you wrote the ebook in it or something. I think that you simply can do with a few p.c. to power the message house a bit, however other than that, that is wonderful blog. A great read. I will definitely be back.
Price never makes a deal
Price always breaks a deal
Get it?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304065704577422643666002940.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read
FB,a sucker born every minute
http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2012/05/24/no-life-of-luxury-tiffany-plunges/?section=money_markets&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmoney_markets+%28Markets%29
After the purchase of the discounted house ,hurry to Tiff for the jewerly
Nothing goes straight down. These people need to think its time to buy to generate the dead cat bounce. Then it’s leg #2 down for the 20% move Shilling above is looking for.
“Neanderthal – from yesterday. “20% discount from 2006″ ? Reread and see if you can uncover the lack of critical thinking here. You’re buying/bought for the same reason I bought my 1970 Fiat 124 Spider convertible in 1979. You’re 19 years old and you just want it and you can’t think of anything else except how cool you’ll be, how cool you’ll look and how cool people will think you are. You are 19, right?”
“You’re 19 years old and you just want it and you can’t think of anything else except how cool you’ll be, how cool you’ll look and how cool people will think you are. You are 19, right?”
This is so outrageously wrong i dont know where to start. My wife and i have been proudly displaying our rental status for the last 7 years like its a badge of honor. Even three rental units later, there is nothing remotely cool or fun about buying a home for us. Its merely the least of many economic evils that could potentially be unleashed in the next five years. Were buying a low int rate, a save place to store our savings (safer than some banks), inflation protection, education, stability and a home. Why dont you try signing your five year old for kindergarten with a month to month lease and then tell me how cool that is when boe says “no go”.
http://waswatching.com/2012/05/24/are-the-yankees-for-sale/
http://www.nasra.org/resources/barclays1105.pdf
Been thinking about the true pension liabilities of NY and NJ.
As always thanks for all the advice over the last decade.
Tom C, ive waited patiently 6 years for 20% drop. In 6 more years my kids will be near their hs years. You think im waiting out another 6 yrs for the possibility of some headline grabbing economist to time the purchase of something we dont even consider an investment? My prediction is and always has been 30-35% from peak. Were 75% there. Thankfully, home price only dictates 25%-35% of what you actually pay for the home over the life of mortgage.
#9 Yeah, but just those silly property taxes at 12k a year, with increases every year. It is the taxes now not so much the prices, and therefore prices will continue to fall to make up for the increase in property taxes.
Disclaimer: I am looking, and I still think prices are going down.
Veto 24
“Why dont you try signing your five year old for kindergarten with a month to month lease and then tell me how cool that is when boe says “no go”.”
No “F” en way , not that I do not believe you. They can not do that threaten to lawyer up.
“all inventories you look at, whether new existing or shadow, they are coming down” and “there is only 144,000 new home sales for sale. That’s at a 49-year low.”
Any questions?
Keep waiting for that shadow inventory to flood the market. Yep. Any day now. Any day.
3b 9 that is why I’m comfortable starting at 4k per year taxes, double in ten years sure but no biggie. Need to borrow a variation of you disclaimer bud.
Disclaimer: I am buying, and I still think prices are going down.
Veto 31 Death by a thousand cuts, no flood IMHO.
#24 Were buying a low int rate, a save place to store our savings (safer than some banks), inflation protection??
“Threaten to lawyer up”
Yea mikey because i have oodles of extra time to fight boe and deal with lawyers. Just so much extra time on my hands to take that little side project on. I dont think thats happening. Especially since my landlord called us up with 56 months notice and says were out, he wants to move his family back in. Maybe ill lawyer up against him too? The rental thing is tired for us buddy. We do not want to move every 5 years.
56 = 6
#32 Mike: 4k a year in taxes? WOW!!! But sadly it is not that long when ago when taxes were that low in Bergen Co. My first house in the late 80’s in the land of the Unicorn were under 2k a year.
New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ (MSAD)
One Year Change: -1.05%
Any Questions?
Zillow, in its first negative equity report, said 15.7 million, or 31.4%, of homeowners were underwater on their mortgages in the first quarter.
Any Questions?
Gary on a real basis, that show prices are up.
Shilling said that housing prices will decline 20% this year because “there are 2 million inventories, both visible and shadow inventories, over and above normal working levels,” which is “a tremendous overhang.” He went on to say that “excess inventories are the mortal enemy of prices.”
I’m looking for another 20% decline and that is what it would take to bring them back to the long-term averages.
Any Questions?
Per grim:
Just a note, NJ did piss poor in the March FHFA Numbers.
Any Questions?
3b 37 .54 ac water front on a peninsula of sorts, city water sewers (big up here), roof & wiring all 10 years. I do not even need a paint brush , kitchen done also, hard wood flrs A -1 condition, tile basement Fam room. But the urber inspector comes next week we shall see his assessment. By the way under 100k.
Grim #7: If I can refi for $20 I’d be a fool not to. Would you recommend it? I have about $89K and 7 years left on a 15 year at 4.75. Would like to refi to a 10 year at lower rate with no prepayment penalties and make the same payment with extra towards principal to pay off in same amount of time or less… but have flexibility in case employment situation changes. Don’t want to spend $2000-$4000 in closing costs. Suggestions?
Neanderthal [40],
Keep convincing yourself. Meanwhile, I’m going to grab a beer and some popcorn and witness the further decay.
Haha. Im going to watch the decay too boss but it will just be from a house i own rather than rent.
Neanderthal – I get it, kids are perishable goods, and moving and landlords can and do suck. hard. My wife and I rented 7 different places from ’91-’02 and we celebrate every labor day weekend by staying home and just smiling about another year passed without having to move(we had several awful labor day moves). This is our 10th year owning, but more importantly, our 10th year not even having the specter of moving on the horizon and it is really great not dealing with landlords, especially when you have kids. If you buy less than you can, put down 40% or more and overpay your mortgage on just one income, owning is still a great no-worry deal. Good Luck.
Neanderthal [46],
You really think you “own” the house? LOL! That m’fer owns you. Remember, I can toot my own horn here because I’m a home owner over the last 18 years.
Veto 35 Sold 06 been renting, 5th place I here you. Funny thing this place is an investment property could stay for foreseeable future, my landlord (single 29 lives Boston given by Mom before demise as such) loves me I fix things myself & pay year up front for a discount of course. But if I can get this deal through it makes sense.
Durable goods orders limp in.
April: +0.2% vs. +0.5% expected, -3.7% (revised) prior. Ex-transport -0.6% vs. +0.7% expected, -0.8% (revised) prior.
In the week ending May 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 370,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 372,000. The 4-week moving average was 370,000, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 375,500.
#43 Mike: SOunds great all around. I would consider it, but the commute to downtown NYC would be brutal. Too old for that insanity.
Original, thanks for the perspective.
Mikey, selling in 2006 and buying in 2012 i think might put you up there with buffet and soros, maybe a few less zeros. ; ‘ )
Gary owning will hopefully suck just slightly less than renting, im hoping.
Have a good day people. Now its back to my foxconn station.
#50/51 Mike: All in all just shows a limping along economy. Another reason I don’t buy the nonsense that the economy is improving so people are buying houses.
Oh and not to beat a dead horse, I bought my first house in my W’s along with all my friends at the time. I don’t know any 20 something year old today that has the means not alone the desire to buy a SFH in the burbs; just saying.
3B,
You’re looking in WT, correct? What’s your commuting plan if you end up there, bus or train?
True but back in the days of Abe Lincoln we had deflation for 40 years. We all joke about people who hide money under their beds. But remember, back then with zero interest at banks, banks actually charged a fee to hold your money and paid zero interest. Home prices fell for 40 years. It is true homes cant fall for ever. Sadly we dont live forever. Homes also have long stretchs of slow and rapid apprecaition. I will use my Moms home as an example. Plot of land bought by newlywed coupe for 3k in 1913, built house for 3K in 1923, died of old age in 1973 and house was sold for 36k. Inflation adjust house and it had basically zero appreciation on this 60 year investment. Now from 1973 up till 1987 house went from 36K to around 300K!!! Wow!! Then from 1987 to 1992 it went down 300K to around 225k, then around 1999 to 2006 it went from around 300k to 650K. From 2006 to today it went from 650K to around 525K. I still follow house. Only house I have a 100 year pricing on. As you can see over 100 years house had like 60 years of flat appreciation. (But I bet Between 1929 and end of WWII home prices were terrible). Follow by rapid growth from 1973 to 1987, then rapid decline 1987 to 1992, flat from 1992 to 1999, then rapid growth from 1999 to 2006 followed by slow bleed out from 2006 to 2012.
Someone might say house was built for 6K and is now worth 525 WoW but that 100 years had lots of turmoil
TomC says:
May 24, 2012 at 8:41 am
Nothing goes straight down. These people need to think its time to buy to generate the dead cat bounce. Then it’s leg #2 down for the 20% move Shilling above is looking for.
“Neanderthal – from yesterday. “20% discount from 2006″ ? Reread and see if you can uncover the lack of critical thinking here. You’re buying/bought for the same reason I bought my 1970 Fiat 124 Spider convertible in 1979. You’re 19 years old and you just want it and you can’t think of anything else except how cool you’ll be, how cool you’ll look and how cool people will think you are. You are 19, right?”
Keep lapping up the propaganda, muppets.
another one in Tenafly
Est Cls Dt: 6/19/2012 UCD: 5/23/2012 DOM: 16
over the last month or two anything in tenafly priced btwn $650K-$850K has gone under contract, many in under 2-3 on market.
2-3 weeks*
Would just shorting the Case Schiller Price index accomplish same thing without moving.
Neanderthal Economist says:
May 24, 2012 at 9:38 am
Original, thanks for the perspective.
Mikey, selling in 2006 and buying in 2012 i think might put you up there with buffet and soros, maybe a few less zeros. ; ‘ )
Gary owning will hopefully suck just slightly less than renting, im hoping.
Have a good day people. Now its back to my foxconn station.
3B 52 I know guys who do, brutal.
JJ 61 we are all not as wealthy as you ! My move will enable me to buy cash that I did not have if I didn’t sell. So it was the correct one.
55 Agreed.
LOLROF!
Moody’s affirms France’s AAA-rating and its negative outlook, saying it would raise its outlook if the country’s debt metrics improve but would cut if its contingent liabilities increase. Moody’s adds that France’s plan for sustainable finances is positive.
Hmmm….. expected a better open.
I don’t know any 20 something year old today that has the means not alone the desire to buy a SFH in the burbs; just saying.
Not until they can figure out how to buy a house through texting.
Dance, my little chubby muppets!! Dance for papa, my pudgies!!
seif [59],
What do you think is the reason? Buyer fatigue? Interest rates? Jobs (bwahh)?
Regarding shadow inventory. The longer this goes on, it is becoming my belief that we may never see this inventory hit the market as viable homes for families to purchase. To the extent that this inventory is occupied and the banks are currently too lazy, being obstructed from foreclosing or not wanting to recognize thier losses, that is one thing. However, what percentage of this shadow inventory is in fact abandoned and not being maintained? I don’t know the answer to this but I get the impression that this invetory is not all occupied by people three years delinquent on their mortgages. As this housing cycle plays out, I think we may see a large portion of these unmaintained properties come to market, if they ever do, selling for land value less tear down costs and not a viable competitors in the existing home sale market.
Mikeinwaiting,
What kind of discount have you negotiated from your landlord when you offer to pay the year upfront?
Theo 70 having seen more than a few that will never sell(tear down for sure) I believe this will add to the mix. In addition banks are in no hurry to show these loses, true. This being said there is uncertainty out there (grim post 3) and within that may just lie an opportunity. We shall see if I get hosed on my purchase.
70
Theo, (and other who have said that)
Yes, if a large portion of the shadow inventory never comes on the market, that will reduce the supply of course. However, the over abundance of homes for sale is only one reason why prices are declining. The overall deflation of credit, horrific job prospects leading to falling incomes, city/state liabilities leading to outrages prop taxes (worse in certain states), etc etc.
#56 Pete: WT or Hillsdale, prefer Hillsdale, Train.
I was in this forum last month seeking advice on attorney review, contract and inspection on a small 1000 sq ft capecode-ranch I had an offer into – thanks again to everyone for helping out with very valuable inputs. Buyer’s lawyer was trying to make inspection terms close to no-exit terms, so I got inspection done while still in AR. Inspection revealed about 20k in repairs and we had decided we can deal with it and moved into contract. And then my husband lost his job, laid-off, (I am not working now), so everything fell apart, this was end-April. Husband just got 2 offers, will begin work on June 1st, but the house is no longer available, now under contract with a higher offer than ours ! So back to square one for us !
Watching realtor.com this past 2 months, many homes in our town going into contract within the first week. This is a train town in Middlesex county. A flipped 50*100-lot one-bath cape-cod went for asking price of 250K – 1000 sq ft first floor, finished attic with just one shed dormer on half of one side, bought last october for 150K, kitchen and bathroom remodelled, new h/w floors in first floor, new carpet in finished attic, new central a/c, new windows, new oil tank, old roof not replaced, put on market in Jan for 260, reduced in March for 250, immediately went into contract and closed in April for 250. Pre-foreclosure list for this town used to run several pages just a few months ago, and now just 3 pages ! May be some serious help has happened ? Looks like we missed the bottom-bus, but that’s OK, cant time everything in life especially matters of the heart like home !
Just one question to anyone who is a realtor here. I was trying to check recent sales in zillow, but see that for middlesex county no updates after 4-23-12 for any of the towns, while there are sales recorded as close as 5-15-12 from some other counties. Is there any issue with recording the data in middlesex county ? Thanks.
#59 seif: 110 SF’s houses in Tenafly from under 300k all the way up. Seems like plenty of inventory for a fairly small town.
#76 = 3B
Joyce 71 1500- 2k year, but you never know I would not have payed his ask even monthly so I am discounting so could be more. I go in saying what is your yearly price I already know his monthly they usually are caught flat footed. I would need to make 10% on a ever decreasing sum so more than that to not go that way. LL gets piece of mind & big chuck of cash. I have been a LL & would have gone for it in some cases.
69 – I can’t figure it out for sure. I am still waiting to see the closing prices on these sales. 2 closed in the last 7 days but nothing is showing for price yet.
Could someone look up 106 Adams court ,Edgewater to review the final closing price .
Looks like it went for about 825K ,its a condo.
76 – that is a lot. the ones that i am seeing go fast do fall into a certain range, neighborhood, etc.
buyers looking in that “zone” are snatching them up quick.
Someone posted a wonderful quote to describe Montclair’s tax problems.
“The poor and the wealthy have much common ground in this town. One benefits from spending, the other is immune from high taxes. The ones in the middle are having trouble affording liberalism.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/states-looking-tolls-pay-highways-162105569.html?l=1 We must find a way. Hope and Change .
Got called for jury duty. Did not request hardship deferral, but asked to be deferred until the fall for family reasons. Deferment granted. By then, I will be safely out of the county’s jurisdiction.
“Disclaimer: The following is a series of fictional accounts of theoretical situations. However, the information contained within was taken from established scientific journals on covered technology and military studies of real life combat scenarios. Alt-Market does not condone the use of any of the tactics described within for “illegal” purposes. Obviously, the totalitarian subject matter portrayed here is “pure fantasy”, and would never be encountered in the U.S. where politicians and corporate bankers are forthright, honest, and honorable, wishing only the sweetest sugar coated chili-dog best for all of mankind…”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-low-tech-solutions-high-tech-tyranny
The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey recently raised cash fares on six Interstate bridges and tunnels to $12 for cars. By 2015, it will cost a five-axle truck paying cash $105 to cross between New York and New Jersey.
Thank goodness we’re prestigious here.
freedy one way or another they are coming for your wallet.
thank goodness i don’t drive a 5-axle truck.
http://www.nydailynews.com/gossip/bill-clinton-shares-spotlight-monaco-porn-starlets-brooklyn-lee-tasha-reign-article-1.1083749
Out right shameless pic
just $6,900/month to live in someone’s LSD-nightmare!
i’ll pay $7,000 if i can keep all the furnishings.
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1219115&dayssince=&countysearch=false
87
thank goodness you also do not eat any of the food or other goods that those trucks transport
Holy sh*t I went in a couple of weeks ago it was $8 and the wife had an apoplexy, better not take her to the city anymore. No more museums for us, sad.
[84] meat
I had long wondered if mylar could be used to defeat FLIR. That piece suggests that it is possible.
[84] meat,
Ah, the web. did a quick search and found that someone tested it with military grade equipment and it didn’t work very well. So mylar emergency blanket by itself won’t work.
[87] seif
“thank goodness i don’t drive a 5-axle truck.”
What kind of man are you? Heck, I bet JJ drives a semi to work and double parks it all day (the meter people won’t ticket him, after all), and keeps nuclear waste in the back to deter break ins (he’s immune from radioactivity). Now that’s manly.
The decision to escape NJ is looking better all the time.
#80 seif:buyers looking in that “zone” are snatching them up quick.
I am skeptical.
#74 SRK: not to be critical, but if your husband got laid off during the home buying process, and is just being reemployed, (grant it quickly), you might want to wait and see how that goes before committing to another purchase.
Those Bridges are a cash cow. Had a granduncle who worked on the George and Martha Washington Bridges. Yes, one is called George and one is Called Martha, when they were building them the construction workers gave them two different names.
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
May 24, 2012 at 12:26 pm
[87] seif
“thank goodness i don’t drive a 5-axle truck.”
What kind of man are you? Heck, I bet JJ drives a semi to work and double parks it all day (the meter people won’t ticket him, after all), and keeps nuclear waste in the back to deter break ins (he’s immune from radioactivity). Now that’s manly.
BTW real men only drive on the Upper Level of the GWB, as the lower level is the Martha Washington Bridge, we all know George likes it on Top.
New Jersey Woman Sues: Fired for Being ‘Too Hot’
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/jersey-woman-fired-busty/story?id=16400674#.T7vERnlYv_g
93 – truck? please…he helicopters in every morning…and on Fridays he has the pilot hover for a bit near Grand Central so he can piss on all the….peons.
95 – skeptical? please elaborate. i am not saying i disagree but i’m not sure what part you are skeptical about.
Seif [87];
thank goodness i don’t drive a 5-axle truck.
Do you think that all your organic produce was delivered to the Dutch-owned hyper-market in a Nissan Leaf or Toyota Prius?
#99. She’s barely a 5 but to those Orthodox Jews she might as well be Sofia Vergara.
Nothing better than a quickie nooner from a blonde haired big boobed women. She aint got the looks to be a wife or even a GF, but certainly good enough for a happy ending by the coffee maker.
Brian says:
May 24, 2012 at 12:54 pm
New Jersey Woman Sues: Fired for Being ‘Too Hot’
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/jersey-woman-fired-busty/story?id=16400674#.T7vERnlYv_g
Lauren Odes is a 29-year old spicy woman living in Hoboken, New Jersey, where she could easily commute to her job in New York. She was placed there by a temporary agency because work has been hard to find lately. My thinking is this publicity will help her get a better job somewhere else that appreciates what she brings to the table.
She once listed her availability on a website called “Reality Wanted” which is designed to help potential reality show cast members find a TV show who wants them on air. We don’t believe she ever got on television from this listing, but we think she has a future on TV. Just don’t put her on a reality show that is based on synagogue life because we have learned that is not her best calling.
On that website she lists her sexual orientation as straight and in a relationship with a handsome hunk who is undoubtedly happier to have her services than those mean old lingerie store owners. Interestingly, she lists her occupation as Fashion Executive and Bartender, a great combination if you think about it. What could be better than watching “too hot” women like Lauren model lingerie while serving drinks? Case closed.
You can find Lauren’s Facebook page over here where she throws in her middle name as “Lauren Elizabeth Odes.” There you will see that she has a super cute doggie and looks ravishing in a black dress that accentuates her form. Some girls have all the luck.
JJ, nice find. Her FB ass picture is very good, but unfortunately that was 40 pounds ago.
#104. You can find Lauren’s Facebook page over here where she throws in her middle name as “Lauren Elizabeth Odes.” There you will see that she has a super cute doggie and looks ravishing in a black dress that accentuates her form. Some girls have all the luck.
There should never be 80+ homes for sale in Glen Rock and there are. 10, 20 tops should be the number. I use it as my blue ribbony meter for available inventory in NNJ. There appears to be plenty.
Since 2008, some 3 million people have dropped out of the job market. If they hadn’t, the unemployment rate would be about 10.8 percent. In March, the unemployment rate seemed to fall a tenth of 1 percent, yet the number of people who are actually employed dropped by 31,000. Why? Because the number of people who looked for a job dropped by 164,000 and they are not considered unemployed. Not to mention that half the new jobs are in temporary help agencies.
Hiring today is at about 70 percent of the 2006 level. Given the increase in unemployed totals, job seekers are only about one third as likely to find work as in 2006.
In the three years after 1933, the economy rebounded with growth rates of 11 percent, 9 percent, and 13 percent. But in 2010, months into our recovery, growth was about 3 percent, followed by 1.7 percent growth in 2011. The rate for 2012 could be about 2 percent—below the 3.4 percent throughout the postwar period.
U-6 unemployment is now in the range of 15 percent. Since 2008, some 3 million people have dropped out of the job market. If they hadn’t, the unemployment rate would be about 10.8 percent.
In March, the unemployment rate seemed to fall a tenth of 1 percent, yet the number of people who are actually employed dropped by 31,000. Why? Because the number of people who looked for a job dropped by 164,000 and they are not considered unemployed. Not to mention that half the new jobs are in temporary help agencies.
In the past six months, according to a Bloomberg study, 70 percent of job openings have been in mostly low-wage sectors, including healthcare, leisure, hospitality, and retail. And some 7.7 million workers are stuck in part-time jobs, their pay inadequate for entry into the middle class. Why so much temporary employment? Because companies do not wish to pay for healthcare and retirement.
Real, authentic job creation will not come from Washington. It has to come out of the energy and spirits of the private sector. Two thirds of our employment is concentrated in 6 million small and medium-size businesses. We are not going to create jobs until they are in a state of mind to do so. They are not yet, and in part that’s because of policy uncertainty that has depressed or confused them.
According to the Heritage Foundation, private sector hiring through June 2011 was 10 times slower following the passage of President Obama’s healthcare bill compared to the prior 16 months.
Through the first few months of 2012, layoff announcements have risen 18 percent from a year ago, and hiring plans have dropped 82 percent.
David Rosenberg reports that nominal per capita disposable income—$37,606—is actually lower today than it was in May 2008 when the recession was in its infancy ($37,752). When you look at the data in real terms, adjusted for inflation, the comparison is even more startling: $32,600 now versus $34,641 back then. This appears to be the first time since the 1930s that inflation-adjusted incomes of Americans have declined.
The private sector workweek has stagnated at about 34.5 hours, and wage growth has been tepid at best with average hourly earnings eking out a 0.1 percent monthly increase for the last five months.
Any Questions?
#107 – I try to stagnate my work week at a number well under that. Does lunch count?
The private sector workweek has stagnated at about 34.5 hours
I just like the helpful information you supply to your articles. I will bookmark your blog and test again right here regularly. I am moderately sure I will learn plenty of new stuff right here! Best of luck for the next!
The Fed stated yesterday that we are at full employment. People who are not working either dont want to work, want too much money, near retirment age or have no skills. Pretty much anyone who wants to work, with skills who is value priced has a job. It is not like the Great Depression, or even 1982, right after 9/11 or back in early 2009.
Anyone under 40 with a good head of hair, nice teeth, college degree, slim, good work ethic, hard worker with references, nice personality, no baggage, willing to work for under 130K can find a job in a matter of two or three weeks. Well as long as their boobs are not too big.
gary says:
May 24, 2012 at 1:49 pm
Since 2008, some 3 million people have dropped out of the job market. If they hadn’t, the unemployment rate would be about 10.8 percent. In March, the unemployment rate seemed to fall a tenth of 1 percent, yet the number of people who are actually employed dropped by 31,000. Why? Because the number of people who looked for a job dropped by 164,000 and they are not considered unemployed. Not to mention that half the new jobs are in temporary help agencies.
110
The people at the FED never get anything wrong, do they
Thanks JJ! I just forwarded this to HR requesting it be an addendum to our equal opportunity verbiage. As our division is headquartered in Sweden, we don’t discriminate against big boobs.
Anyone under 40 with a good head of hair, nice teeth, college degree, slim, good work ethic, hard worker with references, nice personality, no baggage, willing to work for under 130K
Are you saying Gary’s boobs are too big?
110.JJ says:
May 24, 2012 at 2:04 pm
The Fed stated yesterday that we are at full employment. People who are not working either dont want to work, want too much money, near retirment age or have no skills. Pretty much anyone who wants to work, with skills who is value priced has a job. It is not like the Great Depression, or even 1982, right after 9/11 or back in early 2009.
Anyone under 40 with a good head of hair, nice teeth, college degree, slim, good work ethic, hard worker with references, nice personality, no baggage, willing to work for under 130K can find a job in a matter of two or three weeks. Well as long as their boobs are not too big.
96 3B, Thanks. It is not critical at all. Income is not that uncertain, husband gets a lot of private contracting work he has been refusing, so we hope in case of job loss he will get some contract work. I plan to go back to work too.
We are 50 and 55. Have been living in this same apartment complex since 1997 when our children were 6 and 9. First we waited for papers before buying, and then prices went thru the roof and first kid got into college. We then decided we will buy after both kids are thru with college. Younger one is graduating this december, hence our decision to buy this year.
We are buying in this town because after a lot of moving around our kids spent the longest time here and call this their home town. So we want to keep a home here for them to come back to, however infrequent it might be, bring their children and so on. We are hoping to live here for the next 25 years. We are looking for something around 250K (taxes are 7-8K) which we hope to repay within 10 years. We are looking for a 1000 sq ft 3 bed-2 bath with basement, good enuff for us and visiting sons and girl-friends, we want some lot though, something more than the 50*100 so there is room for some expansion when grand-kids come along.
Here’s the gubmint pension endgame: default.
Bankrupt In Paradise
The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands is a U.S. territory. And just like a lot of U.S. states, the commonwealth has a pension plan for its government employees.
…Last month, the pension fund became the first public pension fund in the U.S. to seek bankruptcy protection.
How did the fund get into trouble? Part of the problem, according to Igisomar: The benefits were very good.
The pension fund pays benefits to an employee’s spouse and children long after the employee has died. Adopted children were included, so many government retirees adopted their own grandchildren so that they could receive benefits.
…”At the time when I retired there was a law on the books that said you only had to work for 3 years, ” says Tighe. “And if you worked for the government for 3 years, you could retire and start collecting your pension at age 62.”
In the mid 2000’s the economy of the islands started to collapse… tax revenue started to dwindle… the government started paying less and less into the pension fund. In 2006 and 2007, the government suspended its payments into the fund.
…”The pension plan was placed into the constitution. There is no way you can change it. There is no way you can amend it. There is no way you can just stop it, ” Igisomar says.
The fund started to consider bankruptcy. In bankruptcy, pension officials would be able able to negotiate with the retirees and try to get them to accept less money.
The case is in front of a judge right now, and a central question in the case has ramifications for states and state employees all across the mainland: Is a pension fund separate from the government or part of it?
Under U.S bankruptcy law, commonwealths and states cannot file for bankruptcy, according to David Skeel, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania.
The pension fund is arguing that it works for the commonwealth of the Northern Mariana islands but it is not part of it.
…Skeel says pension funds all across this country are likely watching this case to see what the court decides.
“If this case ends up concluding that a pension fund can file for bankruptcy, I think we will have some pension funds thinking about it and at least considering taking that plunge, says Skeel.
After all, there are a lot state pension funds that are in facing financial troubles similar to these tiny islands. They have promised a lot to their retirees but it’s unclear whether they will be able to keep those promises.
Con’t [115];
See Gary if there are any questions. ;-)
#14 SRK: Sounds like a good plan, and you have played by the rules etc. so you deserve to have a place of your own etc. Good luck to you guys, I am sure it will all work.
117 3B, Thanks so much for your kind words and good wishes. We do need all the wishes.
#10 JJ: The Fed as you say did not say that we are at full employment, it was Mr. Kocherlakota of the Minneapolis Fed who said he believes we may be at full employment.
And yet only 2 weeks or so before that Mr. Williams President of the San Fran said that it may takes years before we reach full employment. And again it was this one individual. So when you speak of the Fed, you speak of the Chairman,and what he said, then you use the term the Fed, because at the end of the day it is he who matters.
Meanwhile right next door to Mr.Kocherlakota’s Minneapolis Fed, in Cook Co Ill, 44% of homes in the county with a mortgage are underwater.
I once had the most qualified candiate end up being a girl around 25, single own place in city, just moved her prior year from midwest, she was a bit chatty, had big boobs, blonde hair and friendly. HR hated her. My wife would have hated her, My co-workers wifes would have hated her. Eventually some married man would of course have an affair with her. HR put cabash on it. So unfair. Who knows maybe she would have been descrete. I would have shiped in for rent on nights I used her apt.
San Fran Fed must have used a bottoms up approach.
3B says:
May 24, 2012 at 2:37 pm
#10 JJ: The Fed as you say did not say that we are at full employment, it was Mr. Kocherlakota of the Minneapolis Fed who said he believes we may be at full employment.
And yet only 2 weeks or so before that Mr. Williams President of the San Fran said that it may takes years before we reach full employment. And again it was this one individual. So when you speak of the Fed, you speak of the Chairman,and what he said, then you use the term the Fed, because at the end of the day it is he who matters.
Meanwhile right next door to Mr.Kocherlakota’s Minneapolis Fed, in Cook Co Ill, 44% of homes in the county with a mortgage are underwater.
What does underwater homes have to do wtih anything. After internet bubble crashed, stocks crashed and people lost a ton of money. What did Pets.com going BK have to do with employment. I been to short sales and these folks are working. They went up to their eyeballs in debt. They also got leased cars, took vacations, bought big tvs too. So what. THey are still working. THey took out too much debt. Most underwater people are basically criminals anyhow.
Meanwhile right next door to Mr.Kocherlakota’s Minneapolis Fed, in Cook Co Ill, 44% of homes in the county with a mortgage are underwater.
#22 JJ: Nothing on the face of it. Just pointing out that fact. however, underwater home owners lead to decreased economic activity we are told. And almost 50% underwater, in a large metro area like Cook Co Ill, says to me that economic activity is not robust, and surely you are not saying they are all criminals.
So I do not quite understand how someone can talk about full employment, with sub-par economic activity. Unless this is the new normal; that is for another discussion.
seif says:
May 24, 2012 at 12:58 pm
95 – skeptical? please elaborate. i am not saying i disagree but i’m not sure what part you are skeptical about.
#24 seif: A few houses being snapped up here and there with such a large inventory of available homes, leads me to be skeptical on any so called housing recovery.
125 – agreed. i am just reporting what I have seen in one town.
Excellent site, thanks for share this article with us
3B & Seif – Hoboken has only 4-5 months of inventory and about 50 homes a month are selling. Amazingly prices per sq ft are not going up. Prices are still going down albeit slower than last year. Slow burn means no rush even with rates at “bottom”. Sellers are being realistic and their price when listing is not what they paid for it or what they thought it was worth in 2007. Ask to Sell spread is narrow.
128 – thanks for the info. as i have mentioned before, i am more interested in where these under contracted homes close than the plain fact that they have closed. i am seeing more “realistic” pricing as well, but many of the homes – which i have seen – need MAJOR upgrades (as in, original kitchen and bathrooms from 1950’s).
[128] juice,
Skip hoboken and buy in Westfield. Every married person in ‘boken will look in the brig eventually.
IMHO, hoboken will get crushed by taxes, depressing values. The brig will outpace in any recovery. So if you buy in boken and wait you will be worse off than if you get into the brig now.
128/130
I have no love affair with Hoboken by any stretch, but isn’t the commute 10 times better from there than Westfield
Nom – my current plan is to stay put and get a place at the shore every summer since I don’t have a need to move to the burbs yet. When I do move (for the schools) I will keep Brig on the short list. I like the town but I am not so sure about the residents.
Nom 130 “Every married person in ‘boken will look in the brig eventually.” and as per Joyce’s post location, location………..some new puppies will buy. I agree on taxes but that is everywhere.
PS Joyce did you catch my response to your question earlier?
“I like the town but I am not so sure about the residents.” LOL
133
Mikeinwaiting
Yes, I did- thanks. I’m a few months away from signing a new lease; I’m going to give it try.
Joyce might not work if you have a history of paying with landlord (why should he if good payer), good for new deals. But then again worth a try.
I hear you. That makes sense. To clarify, by “a few months” I mean several… and by “new” I mean I’m searching for a new place.
;-)
Joyce it goes like this guy has empty house doing credit checks one guy says1700 month
no problem. Checks guy out being tossed for not paying the rent. I come in here is a check for 17k for the year. Oh by the way, paint porch ,mulch beds (at the table in my home to do deal) “no” want a cup of coffee before you go deal off, OK OK, put in contract signed.
Mikeinwaiting- I hope I’m able to command a nice discount like that. Time will tell. There are several potential places (I have no specific unusual requirements) so if the first doesn’t work; I’ll def continue to try.
I dont get underwater thing. Lets say I have one million in bank and make one million a year and own a home I paid one million. Home is now worth 800k. I would think losing 200K in income or 200K in cash in bank would feel worse than losing equity in a home I had no immediate plans to sell
3B says:
May 24, 2012 at 3:02 pm
#22 JJ: Nothing on the face of it. Just pointing out that fact. however, underwater home owners lead to decreased economic activity we are told. And almost 50% underwater, in a large metro area like Cook Co Ill, says to me that economic activity is not robust, and surely you are not saying they are all criminals.
So I do not quite understand how someone can talk about full employment, with sub-par economic activity. Unless this is the new normal; that is for another discussion.
Joyce no sh*t that is the way it went down, go for it!
Joyce, keep in mind I live in Vernon, no one has 2 sticks to rub together!
Que Meat with Sussex county joke.
Haha- I’ll let you know how it goes.
RE: 129 Hey Seif, I was a buyer of the those Tenafly 50’s kitchen homes. I closed at the end of march. I got married in 2005 and have been waiting to buy since then. I’ve been reading this blog daily since the start, so my eyes have been wide open.
With two kids, one starting kindergarten this fall… it was time. I got a 3.625 conventional mortgage from Everbank (fyi, they’re probably offering sightly better rates now). I will let inflation take its course for the next 20+ years. I have no other way to play it.
Was sad to hear of a friends passing, this guy was truly inspirational.
The Jets website had a piece on him as he ran all the communications during the games. This write up leaves out his biggest Jets contruibution as he was the guy who caught the Pats with the video camera. He had Nerd Cred!
http://www.newyorkjets.com/news/article-1/Fan-Friend-Steve-Mendelsohn-Passes-Away/0d61401d-520d-4a5d-b1fe-5f5c435dcb62
mikey (142)-
Yeah, but it’s ok to rub up against your first cousin up there.
“Joyce, keep in mind I live in Vernon, no one has 2 sticks to rub together!”
145 – congrats. what street? i may have been in the home. let me know if you have any questions about the area. i just had dinner at Axia Taverna about an hour ago.
I love my new granite counter tops!
I was buying some brew for the weekend this afternoon. I witnessed an individual screaming on his cell phone. Here’s what he said, “I bought you everything you wanted b_tch! F_ck you! What you talkin about?”
Classic empire decline. Sucks to be stuck in the middle of it. Anyone watch Idol last night?
The tax write-off is incredible. I mean the way homeowners and home shoppers write off NJ property taxes as if it ain’t no big thang. When the Wall Street and IT jobs are finally observed to be sloughing away as they are at the same time as blue ribbony Baby Boomers unload and unleash their equity in other states(countries?) as they run for the exits and the new young lions are debating between paying their monthly iPhone data plans or their student loans on their parent’s credit card it will be an exceptional critical mass to watch concentrate.
Here you go Clot.
I expect Mikey to give you an early Christmas present and buy Joey back on the cheap.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/18183661
That will make up for the losses. I think two out of three (Ba, Cisse or Pardew) will not see Christmas in the Toon.
Quote of the week
“I have seen a bit of the city already and it is a change from France” Newcastle signing Romain Amalfitano. The 22-year-old will arrive on a free transfer after his contract with Stade de Reims expired. Amalfitano, who helped the French club win promotion to Ligue 1, joins compatriots Yohan Cabaye and Hatem Ben Arfa at the Sports Direct Arena.
From 7:30 on. he hits it out of the park.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TIVWjz0lidA
#145 Wicked Orange. Congrats. Embrace that you’re part of a resurgence of mid-century style. Go to http://www.retrorenovation.com great stuff! Jill posted this link a while ago and I’ve been hooked ever since.
gluteus (151)-
See you when your boys drop down to Europa League.
#154 Clot
“It is better to have loved and lost, than never to have loved at all!”
thanks for the article.http://www.kitsucesso.com
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