From Bloomberg:
Hoboken Homes Gone in 60 Minutes Signal Recovery
For the latest sign of a U.S. housing rebound, Toll Brothers Inc. Chief Executive Officer Douglas Yearley points to Hoboken, New Jersey: A couple torn between two condos last month at the sales office for its Hudson Tea complex decided to think about it over lunch. When they returned an hour later, both units were gone.
“People feel like now is the time to buy and they aren’t isolated to one building in Hoboken,” Yearley said in a May 23 conference call with analysts after the Horsham, Pennsylvania- based luxury homebuilder reported that quarterly orders for new homes surged 47 percent. “Confidence is up. The interest rates are there and they’ve been waiting so long to move on with their lives that they came out this spring.”
…
While demand for existing homes has been on the rise in recent months, the improvement in new home sales signals that the growing appetite for residential real estate goes beyond foreclosures and other distressed sales targeted by investors. Traditional homebuyers, including those who have to sell another property to upgrade, are coming off the fence, Stan Humphries, Zillow Inc.’s chief economist said.Mortgage rates for 30-year loans fell to 3.78 percent in the week ended yesterday, the lowest in Freddie Mac records dating back to 1971. The Federal Reserve has pledged to hold interest rates near zero through the end of 2014 and has bought home-loan bonds to lower borrowing costs.
Rates for 30-year jumbo mortgages fell to 4.38 percent yesterday from 5.11 percent a year ago, according to data from Bankrate.com.
In Hoboken, Toll Brothers increased prices six times since it began selling apartments last spring in the 157-unit 1450 Washington at Hudson Tea, where prices now range from $450,000 to $1 million, said Todd Dumaresq, marketing manager for Toll’s City Living division. The company has sold 108 units in the building and is now selling about 12 homes a month, he said.
Friskies
From Bloomberg:
Goldman’s O’Neill Says U.S. Housing in Early Stages of ‘Turning’
Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O’Neill said the U.S. housing market is in the early stages of a recovery as affordability improves.
“I’m in the camp that believes the U.S. housing market is in the early days of turning,” O’Neill said at the Society of Business Economists’ annual conference in London today. “I just spent all of last week travelling around the U.S., I was on the west coast, the east coast, and everywhere I went, I heard quite lively anecdotes that this was the case.
‘‘Looking forward, U.S. house prices to personal incomes are now actually below where they were at the start of the 1990s,’’ he said. ‘‘So for people not trapped in the negative equity problem, U.S. housing is cheap.’’
It is different in Hoboken but remeber the price per sq ft is not going up.
Good morning everyone! Wishing you a happy shiny Memorial day weekend!
Oh and Mr. Economist from the Pleistocene era, thank you for your comments yesterday and I wish you good luck on your quest against the mean hungry housing bears!
Bottoms up!
Meanwhile, the owners of The Beacon in JC had to dump the whole place at a massive loss.
Isolated pockets of overhyped strength do not equal a broad market comeback.
The bloodbath will continue. In the end, no one will be spared.
I’m guessing Hoboken is doing well because Manhattan is doing well and the city is more fashionable than the suburbs these days.
What surprises me is that Manhattan is so in demand. The financial industry headcount keeps going down, where is the money coming from?
A young couple must live close to city. Incomes are so much higher, couples are delaying kids to the mid to late 30’s. It is more fun, and fits the selfish self centered have it all lifestyles of todays 21-35 year olds.
Single or DINK, well dressed, college eduated, fashionable, short commute can get to office quick or work late are what high paying trendy companies want. What ever money you save by moving further out is lost 3x on income.
People forget in high paying FS jobs housing costs are not always a big deal. When one goes from making 20 million to 10 million the 5K mortgage is the least of your worries. It is your brokerage accounts and restricted stock that kills you. Imagani
JJ there are only a few hundred, maybe a few thousand people in Banks earning millions. They aren’t living in Hoboken. Its the regular grunts on the trade floor and supporting services earning 2-400k that make the biggest impact on the housing market. These jobs are disappearing every year.
Thanks , I’ve just been searching for info approximately this topic for a while and yours is the best I have found out so far. But, what in regards to the bottom line? Are you sure in regards to the supply?|What i do not realize is in fact how you are not actually much more neatly-preferred than you may be right now. You are very intelligent.
Good Morning New Jersey
We have a similar painful monument to the housing bubble right in the center of town. It’s called the Aberlour. The owner tried to sell the condos as a 55+ community and I think they only sold 2 of 45 units. They’ve since defaulted on the $9.5 loan and the building was repossesed by the bank. The new owners seem to be marketing it as rental apartments. Not sure whether or not people are moving into the building or not but I have seen that the parking lot is now mostly full.
http://www.aberlournj.com/
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/10/newton_condominiums_are_sellin.html
There you have it, housing crisis over. New and existing units moving like crazy and prices rising. It must be the steady sustained job growth of 275,000 plus each month that’s fueling the…. oh, wait a second…
Ok that might be the funniest bot name ever
#3 Juice: These buyer are not from the street, that is for sure. Total retrenchment is the reality today on the street.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O’Neill said the U.S. housing market is in the early stages of a recovery as affordability improves.
How does the steady rise in property taxes affect the recovery in our area? It’s a serious question which means no one in the RE industry will respond.
Gary I guess I should go out and buy a couple SFHs to flip
3B [15],
Who are the buyers of those units in Hoboken and where is the money coming from?
Brian12 200k to live in an apartment in Newton, you would have to be an idiot to buy there. One Trinity, that is one of if not THE busiest intersections in Sussex county and it sits on it! That is not even considering you could have a house with a yard for the same money or less.
The housing bears are pulling out the long knifes this morn as the three Musketeers of beardom are in the fray. Good mourning fellow Musketeers.
“Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O’Neill said the U.S. housing market is in the early stages of a recovery as affordability improves.”
Dear Muppets, go out and buy a house. Ignore the taxes, insurance and upkeep costs. The Squid just called the 1,582nd bottom of the housing market.
Pain only a couple, leverage baby! LOL
Hype what is a few bottoms between friends.
From what I have seen it is also a generational thing. Lets say I am Morgan Stanley and I fire 20,000 midlevel grunts and they are 40-55 year old married men with stay at home wives living in Surburbs making on average 200K a year. Wall St. always overfires because always a steady stream of newbies looking to come in. So crisis dies off we need to hire back maybe 10,00 new people. Well new people are going to be single, or married Dinks between 23-33. We will pay them maybe with bonus 100K each. The 27 year old girl in Accounting at Merril making 80K is engaged to the 29 year old guy at Morgan the Controllers Dept making 120K. Bam they have same 200K income as that old married guy with the stay at home wife. The couple goes house hunting. They dont a big house with high taxes and a long commute, they want a short comute in a trendy areas. I think the people getting laid off on wall street have houses in the surburbs and the younger cheaper new hires want places in condos/coops near city. I have staff with 2-3 acre homes way out in NJ and the bus is horrible. The commute is terrible and extremely difficult to get to work. What are choices, drive to park and ride, take long bus ride in rush hour traffic with limited schedule, take NJ transit to Penn and come down on 2, Drive 20 miles to Newark, that Path to WTC and then five minute walk in cold. It sucks. It is a career killer move for a young person. It is a career killer move at any age until you get that VP title. It ruins you social life. If you have a stay at home wife and several kids it is all worth it. Award winning schools, wife and kids enjoy house. But if you and wife both work 12 hours days with no kids. The commute sucks the life out of you.
My friend works at Merril and he bought a two bedroom coop in Battery Park recently. His wife and their kid love it. He walks to work in five minutes, can come home for lunch. The Elemenatary school is great, plenty of parks, no traffic, no cars in Battery Park, He has no commutation expense, no car expense, no heating bill, no gas bill. When he wants to head out to beach or something on a Sunday just grab a zip car and go. He works from 8am to 6:30pm. He has enough to buy a two million dollar home cash. But then he would have to leave his house at 6:30 am every day and get home at 8pm. For what, instead he wakes up at sevenish and is home at 6:35. Plus plenty of young couples with kids.
Richard says:
May 25, 2012 at 8:14 am
JJ there are only a few hundred, maybe a few thousand people in Banks earning millions. They aren’t living in Hoboken. Its the regular grunts on the trade floor and supporting services earning 2-400k that make the biggest impact on the housing market. These jobs are disappearing every year.
Yeah I just can’t believe people are buying them. People must be moving into them as rentals. It’s a really nice building and I think there’s a gym and a game room. It’s just a bit out of place here. Believe it or not I think they originally wanted $300k to $400k in 2006. The logic was ‘well similar units sell for over $1million near the city so these are a deal’. Oops.
19.Mikeinwaiting says:
May 25, 2012 at 8:46 am
Brian12 200k to live in an apartment in Newton, you would have to be an idiot to buy there. One Trinity, that is one of if not THE busiest intersections in Sussex county and it sits on it! That is not even considering you could have a house with a yard for the same money or less.
#18 gary: I don’t know, perhaps it is all those foreigners we hear about that are buying NYC real estate jumping across the river.
As far as houisng bottom, no bottom here because of property taxes.
JJ 2 issues:
1) Will they ever hire back the mid level grunts? Bats exchange is run out of Kansas and replaces the jobs of hundreds of mid level monkeys answering phones and placing orders on the floor in NYC. Prop trading is going to hedge funds, which can easily be run outside the tri-state area. Meanwhile more settlement stuff etc is run out of SLC, Charlotte, or Mumbai.
2) Yes the city is very nice place to raise a young family right now. But you wouldn’t want to do that if the crime of the 70’s & 80’s returns. A decade of democrat mayors would see middle class families flee Manhattan and newly trendy Crooklyn like rats off a sinking ship. I see NJ suburbs suffering until this happens.
3B,
If we had sustained job growth in the 250K to 300K range and GDP at 5%, I could see it. Otherwise, it doesn’t make sense.
#27 Richard JJ Is old school, he is blabbering on about rehiring back and all of that, but it is not going to happen. That used to be the way it happened, but not any more. The street has changed, JJ has not changed with it.
‘‘Looking forward, U.S. house prices to personal incomes are now actually below where they were at the start of the 1990s,’’ he said. ‘‘So for people not trapped in the negative equity problem, U.S. housing is cheap.’’
Plus int rates are lower than 1990’s. Any questions? If all goes well i’ll emerge from attorney review this afternoon, send an email to the uber and tell the mortg broker to lock us in at 3.7%.
Meat [5];
In the end, no one will be spared.
In the long run, we’re all dead.
#28 gary Agreed. And lets not forget what clot said hype too. Meanwhile in the blue ribbony Bergen Co towns, there is still plenty of inventory available as we rapidly approach June.
here’s one that just closed in Tenafly. Went to it twice; my kids referred to it as “the grandma house” in reference to the smell and decor. Was an estate sale. Went for 20% off original listing price; needs updates all around:
Last LP: $699,000 ML#: 1142673
Addr: 79 WOODLAND PARK DR
Twn: TENAFLY Zip: 07670
Orig LP: $799,000
Sold: $633,000
SD: 5/21/2012 UCD: 4/23/2012 DOM: 157
#30 Nean: Interest rates are lower than the 90’s but prices are still much higher than the 90’s. I for one would be more interested in the price of the house, and not the financing mechanism. And of course property taxes have doubled and tripled and quadrupled in some cases since the 90’s. This guy can say whatever he wants, but in our area property taxes cannot be discounted, when determining whether it is affordable or not.
Disclaimer: I am looking to buy, and I still believe prices are going down for a lot of reasons, and property taxes is a big one.
Neanderthal,
‘‘Looking forward, U.S. house prices to personal incomes are now actually below where they were at the start of the 1990s,’’ he said. ‘‘So for people not trapped in the negative equity problem, U.S. housing is cheap.’’
And property taxes have more than doubled… medical insurance has quadrupled, fees, tolls and commuting costs are out of control and that $4 box of cereal is approaching 10 ounces in weight. My sewer bill came yesterday, it’s $177. A couple of years ago, it was around $65. You’re trying to take 1/16 of the pie and justify your move. Guess what… you’re about to get hit by a stun gun, my friend. Any questions?
Hoboken has every type of foreigner you can think of buying up those high rise condos. In my son’s school we have people from the Ukraine, South America, England, France, China and other places. Some work on Wall St but the majority do not. I have neighbors that are from the major investment banks and allot of the boutiques, but bankers are really only about 20% of the population a few thousand with a few ballers in the mix. The rest are living here to escape the even higher prices in Manhattan and to avoid the commutes from the burbs.
As I said earlier inventory is only about 4-5 months and condos are moving but there price per sq ft is not rising. There is bidding but it is nothing like the bubble times.
3B,
And, despite it all, I still plan to make one more move. Now, that’s what you call insanity. Being a home owner for so long, at least I can somewhat anticipate most of the obstacles. It’s like Indiana Jones navigating dozens of booby traps. For the first time buyer, in the new world we live in, it’s like a wounded baby seal floundering in an ocean of Great Whites.
#37 gary: I hear you on the insanity, I am doing it too, as I do not want to be a nomad potentially having to move every couple of years from a rental. But I still believe prices will continue to fall. I won’t change my mind once I become a so called home owner again.
#36 Juice: if they are nto on the street, what fields are they employed in?
Gary, 3b: 37,38
As you know I am of the same mind and doing the same thing, but I know it is going south not north. Buying with this in mind as we are all experienced home owners gives us a better chance of mitigating the lose.
I would love for recent home owners to post here and tell us if they think housing is affordable. You’ll be blind-sided by so many additional costs, you’ll be begging for mommy to make it stop. I laugh when I hear how interest rates are at historic lows and it’s a great time to buy! Lol!! You muppet puppies have no idea. The housing theft mastered by the industry was an epic move inflicted upon the masses. The bleeding hasn’t let up… but that’s not going to stop the talking heads and snake oil salesmen from trying to get your money.
BATS suck. They will never get IPOs, they are just a cheap utility. I have worked on Wall Street since 1986, Stock Market Crash, Recession of 1991, First WTC bombing, Internet Bubble Crash, 9/11 and Great Recession of 2008/2011 all are little hicups. Like in the Battle of Hastings, there will be winners and losers. The only concern I have now with Wall Street, is Volume. People have a perceived mistrust of equities and equity and options trading volume is down while people are fixated on cash and bonds. More focused on Capital Return rather than a Return On Capital. Sadly people will chase the bond bubble again or by homes as a perceived “safe” investment not realizing how heavily leverage that bet is.
2013 will be a good year for equities. First we need the Fiscal Wall resolved, taxes decided, who will be our president and Europe to fix their problems. We then need treasury and Junk bond bubble to pop. If anything higher tax rates alone may pop it. Money will flow like the river Nile to Equities. Right now their is mountain of cash to be invested. Folks like me, who skipped Bond Funds and went right into bonds also have a huge income stream and called bond issue. Come June/July of 2012 a MASSIVE amount of munis are being pre-refunded or called plus the two heavyist interest payment dates. That combined with govts doing majority of bond issue in first six months of year means we have huge cash flows. In June/July alone I have between calls and interest around 40K flowing in. That combined with I raised cash hoping for a flash crash this summer or higher rates have around another 160k. Cash is building. Refinancing of mortgages is another nightmare. Once again that just brings more cash in. All that cash has no place to go, if investors are avoiding equities, savings and accounts and treasuries pay to little and commodities are falling sadly housing and equities may be only place to put cash.
I am looking at GMAC REO on Saturday. Still searching for an REO. The prices are just not there yet. I want to pay 100x monthly rent. That is what professional investors look for. Saw one house that rents for $2,200 for sale for $280k and RE told me at peak house was worth $580K. I was like regardless of Peak house is only worth 220K on my metric. Hopefully, we get there.
Realtors are such idiots. She then said if you own a home why are you wishing home prices fall more. I told her since my property taxes are based on my assessed value I hold home prices fall to zero, then I wont have to pay property taxes and can live for free.
Richard says:
May 25, 2012 at 9:18 am
JJ 2 issues:
1) Will they ever hire back the mid level grunts? Bats exchange is run out of Kansas and replaces the jobs of hundreds of mid level monkeys answering phones and placing orders on the floor in NYC. Prop trading is going to hedge funds, which can easily be run outside the tri-state area. Meanwhile more settlement stuff etc is run out of SLC, Charlotte, or Mumbai.
2) Yes the city is very nice place to raise a young family right now. But you wouldn’t want to do that if the crime of the 70′s & 80′s returns. A decade of democrat mayors would see middle class families flee Manhattan and newly trendy Crooklyn like rats off a sinking ship. I see NJ suburbs suffering until this happens.
Just mailed in my 3 months notice to vacate to my landlord, but still haven’t found my next rental. Looking in the Point Pleasant Beach and Manasquan school districts. Upgrade from Brick. If anyone out there knows of a 3br+ for around 2k/mo let me know.
Mikeinwaiting [40],
What the muppets don’t realize is that after one makes the purchase and lays out an additional 2.5% of the purchase price just to get settled, they need to have additional dry powder to back themselves up. Most don’t realize it… which is why cup-a-soups and formal living rooms without furniture exist.
When you factor in 20-30% price discounts, 3.7% mortgages and inflation adjusted affordability thats on par with 40 year historical averages, i cant think of a better time to become a proud home owner. Plus when you have small children you are happy to pay higher property taxes. Even a 15k annual property tax bill is much cheaper than sending a couple of children to private school. 3-5 years out prop taxes will not have grown much in nj due to the economy, cap and tool kit measures. You want low prop taxes? Try western pa or west va. They assess per tooth.
Can we please stop slandering muppets? I find all this muppet talk very offensive.
Gary:
Most muppets do not realize that crap shack they just bought will need 50k minimum just to get it up to code, let alone that 21st century curb appeal that I keep seeing on TV. These yuppy muppets just look at the paint on the walls and the potential feng shui of their new purchase. Nothing like a house with great light in the living room and a potential yoga studio in the basement. Forget that 60 year old furnance and the exposed copper wiring coming out of the not so up to code electrical box.
3-5 years out prop taxes will not have grown much in nj due to the economy, cap and tool kit measures.
And if the cloud bursts, thunder in your ear,
You shout and no one seems to hear.
And if the band you’re in starts playing different tunes,
I’ll see you on the dark side of the moon.
Historically for homes to be affordable they should be priced at 2.5x income. Even your beloved Hunterdoom which has a very high 100K average income, homes need to be priced on average at 250K to be considered affordable.
Neanderthal Economist says:
May 25, 2012 at 10:11 am
When you factor in 20-30% price discounts, 3.7% mortgages and inflation adjusted affordability thats on par with 40 year historical averages, i cant think of a better time to become a proud home owner. Plus when you have small children you are happy to pay higher property taxes. Even a 15k annual property tax bill is much cheaper than sending a couple of children to private school. 3-5 years out prop taxes will not have grown much in nj due to the economy, cap and tool kit measures. You want low prop taxes? Try western pa or west va. They assess per tooth.
Imo all the smart people need to stop talking about homes as if they are stocks in an ira and instead refer to a home in the same manner as we do our cars. Do you ever hear anyone complain that they’re upside down on their 2009 volkswagen passat?
Any questions?
Hype you should see how much work I have done on the outside of our crap shack. We bought ours on potential, potential sucks! If I could have waited a couple more years it would have been much better to build ourselves, and pay someone else for the headache.
“You want low prop taxes? Try western pa or west va. They assess per tooth.”
Great. I can save money. I played hockey.
Jj. Average homeowning family income in hunterdon county is easily over $150k. Where is the problem?
All Hype [47],
Wait until they get up to use the bathroom at 3 AM and hear a steady drip in the wall. Or, how about maybe the hot water heater goes…. the day before Thanksgiving. Or, maybe the sewer leading to the street needs to be snaked at 1 AM on a Sunday night because some kid dropped a sh1t load of toys in the toilet back in 1972. Or maybe the circuit board for the freezer blows, just call the landlord, right? Lol! Wrong answer!! You are the landlord… and the muppet serf!! That’ll be $400, please! Lol!
Neanderthal [50],
Yeah, I have a question: who the f*ck buys a VW Passat?
hello!,I love your writing very a lot! share we be in contact more about your article on AOL? I require a specialist on this space to solve my problem. Maybe that is you! Looking ahead to see you.
ghey germans
gary says:
May 25, 2012 at 10:33 am
Neanderthal [50],
Yeah, I have a question: who the f*ck buys a VW Passat?
Sell to whom? Sell to 3b, gary and mikeinwaiting!
How’s the house hunting going fellas?
So then average home should be 475K.
Issue is a three acre, 4000 square foot home with a cess pool/well, huge landscape to take care of, pool and 21K taxes you need 150K in income to maintain it if you got it for free.
Plus 150k income is a joke. My 26 year old niece makes 80K and so does her 26 year old BF. 150K income is not even as much as a 26 year old couples income. You really need a steady 400k income for houses like that.
Neanderthal Economist says:
May 25, 2012 at 10:31 am
Jj. Average homeowning family income in hunterdon county is easily over $150k. Where is the problem?
skittles [58],
I’m also a seller… and I want top dollar! I’m not giving it away! ;)
#45 Nean: Not to start a war, but you are kind of what I am referring to. You are now buying, and so your opinion is changing, or perhaps you might say evolving. So just to address some of your points, here goes.
1. 3.75 mtg rate on houses that are still IMO 50 to 100K over priced in many cases is not compelling, much more attractive than at the bubble levels, yes, but compelling no.
2. 15k a year is a lot of money in yearly property taxes. You will still be paying them once your kids are long out of school, and the 2% cap is a joke, that can easily be gotten around. As far as the comments per teeth etc., well that is the silly snobbishness that so many on NJ use to justify obscene property taxes.
If we are to put any value on the recent Newsweek 1000 best HS’s in the country, is it not ironic that with all the money we spend on our so called top notch schools, why are so many of the top 100 not in NJ, they are in places such as Fla,Texas, Arizona,, North Carolina, and number 1 is in good ol’e Kentucky. Only 2 of NJ’s HS’s made it into the top 25. Whether these surveys mean anything or not, is of course debatable. But it is ironic considering all the money NJ spends for what we are told is a superior product vs. the rest of the country. My own blue ribbony towns ranked 752 I believe on the list, and yet we are in the top 5 for highest property taxes in Bergen Co.
One would think just on the face of it, that with all the money we spend, because we are constantly told that the more we spend on education the better, that we (NJ’s) schools would be at the top on these kinds of surveys. I wish you luck on your home purchase, and I can appreciate your want of stability for your child, but you are just starting out. You will find on the elementary level the schools are good, I don’t deny that ( I question the cost), but you may also find like many others in lots of blue ribbony towns that the level of quality education declines at the middle and HS level. And of course when you are done with the schools you will still be paying, and paying, and paying.
#50 Nean: Upside down on a car vs. a house??? Are you really going to go there?
3B 34, Gary 35 – entirely agree. Also maintenance. Although we expect on an average about 3% of price for fixes (after initial repairs and upgrades of about 25% cost of house), we are bracing for worse, since homes here were all built in the 40s. And yes, putting milk and cereal on the table is getting dearer and dearer, and I am not entirely at peace at the thought of becoming a first time owner at 50 and 55.
Just curious, why does rental mean constant moving. Asking because we have lived in this same complex for 15 years, moved 3 apartments. First, we were on the condo side, and owner sold after 4 years of stay, we moved to rental side stayed in an apartment for 7 years, apartment had to be opened for sewage problems and they moved us to current apartment where we have lived for 4 years now.
Jj that assumes everyone in hunterdon bought this year for $475k. Most people bought in 1980s and 1990s for peanuts. They either have no mortgage or pay p&i of $200 per month. They love high prop taxes because it keeps the long islanders far away.
Nom 52 me too! Going in for maintainence on one of my front fakes today!
Mrs. Piggy 46 Looking foward to sucking on your ribs this weekend
61 – agree. that list was a bit of an eye-opener after all the BS we hear about the great schools in NJ.
Gary (54):
The most fun I have looking at houses is bringing my old-school dad and uncle with me. The shell-shocked look on their faces when they see the condition of these houses are priceless. They tell me that they lived in better conditions in the refugee camps after WWII. They think that most people have gone insane paying over 300k+ and 15k for taxes for these money pits. I tell them that these were the best houses of the lot I looked at. I did not show them the places that would give Freddy Kruger the creeps.
Im so upset. I bought a lawnmower for $500 on credit and its now worth $300 on ebay. Im upside down and its dragging down my net worth. I was never going to sell it, even itf prices on ebay went up to $1000 because i need it to cut my lawn but now i have all these carrying costs for maintenance , storage, gas and spark plugs. What a horrible horrible investment lawn mowers are. The price to rent a lawnmower are more favorable. I dont know what fool would buy such a terrible investment. Who agrees with me?
Forget scores, what have the graduates of schools done. My daughters gym teacher who now teachers all kids boys and girls how to throw a perfect spiral with a football, had a kid go on to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, her drama teacher has a student star on broadway, her school had a student become a CEO of a DOW 30 company. Like the famous Yale class of 1912 what your students go on to do in life is the biggest indicator of how good a public school is.
None of can tell if Harvard or Princeton are good schools. All they may be good at is picking which HS seniors have most potential. But a plain old public school who had to take any snot nose picking kid, or special needs kids who can regularly turn out CEOs, Broadway Stars, Hedge Fund Managers a big kudos to them.
I went to HS with kids who went on to become Movie Stars, Olympic Gold Medalists, Staring on Saturday Night Live and went to College with players in the NBA hall of famem rap starts and Billionaires.
Public Schools that build self esteem, encourage kids and give a solid education for you to be success in life are what matters. The SAT scores, Ivy League accpeptance, advanced placement courses are BS. Just a bunch of book worms. The beauty of history and studying means you never invent or create anything. You just memorize what already exists and spit it back. I sat in class with people who founded Run DmC, Vitaminwater, TCBY and won NBA Championships. Those people brought electricity and created things. None most likey had high GPAs and not all even graduated. But they were the people just being in same room got our thought process going. The book worm in corner studying and writing notes, brought nothing to the table.
Jersey may have great schools, the top 100 list just doesnt measure. Schools like Regis in the city have turned out some of the most imporant people in tri-state area and graduates are extremely successful. Just dont expect it to be in the top 100. While your kids in top 100 schools are studying the kids are regis are learning, which are two different things.
veets (50)-
Last time I checked, the median price for a Passat was not 450K.
Neanderthal [69],
It’s like comparing a slice of pizza to a window shade.
I was saying it six years ago here, and it bears repeating: housing is a sui generis asset class that is neither a blue-chip investment nor a commodity.
JJ you forgot advised presidents and landed a man on the moon.
Big f ‘n deal I went to a school that’s main professions were drug dealers and public employees. Had no bearing on my success it is dependent on the parents and the drive of the students.
Hype you need to get your wife out of the essex county school system so you can get out of montklair
Meat, no and you dont live in the dang thing either.
Agreed. I find their success admirable for all the while having a hand up their ass. We the bag-holders, on the other hand, will be far less successful going forward as the government isn’t content with just one fist up in there.
#46. Can we please stop slandering muppets? I find all this muppet talk very offensive.
veets (53)-
The problem is that the only growth in Hunterdon is in food stamp usage. Trust me; what I know about the new white collar poverty could fuel a book.
“Jj. Average homeowning family income in hunterdon county is easily over $150k. Where is the problem?”
3b (61)-
Where you sleep is where you stand.
#63 SRK: I owned before, that is why I think, or would like to think that I have a more balanced view than perhaps some others might have. I sold not at peak , but close enough, and made a lot of money on the house, Prior to that one, my first house I lived in for around years and sold it for less than I paid for it (late 80’s bubble), since I did not want to take the loss I stayed and paid the mtg off, and used the proceeds for the second house. The rental I have is being sold, after living there for a few years (it is a house), and so I have to go. Too young for the condo thing, so buying another small house.
All Hype [68],
I went to see a house in Woodcliff Lake last weekend listed at 629K. Nobody warned us that we should’ve brought a gas mask and a blind fold to shield the children’s eyes from the horror. The ridiculousness still abounds.
veets (64)-
I live in Hunterdon. I do not like my tax bill. And, I hope everyone from LI moves here…since they’re the only potential buyers in the entire US who have already been conditioned to paying taxes at these butt-r@pe levels.
#77 There: I know 4 people who bought out in Hunterdon years ago, and they all still have mtg’s and HELOC’s and all the rest. Plus everyone else I know (family friends) still have mtg’s.I doubt there are a lot of people in their 40’/50’s out there or anywhere in our area have paid off mtg’s in their 40’s/50’s.
I believe you meat. Its obviuously pretty nasty out there. Problem is that the situations you are witnessing are a snapshot of the low part of a cyclical, arguably. Similar scenarios of high unemployment played out in the economic lows of nearly every decade since beginning of time. Doesnt mean prices crash 50% every time.
3b (82)-
The one thing I feel fairly certain of is that Hunterdon- especially the towns- will all be slums within 10 years. All those ’90s McMansions are functionally obsolete and will become group homes/SRO rentals/gang houses. The county population is declining rapidly (most of that decline traceable to high-income families getting the hell out as their kids leave the skool systems), and the only influx of note is MS-13 types.
#78 There: True, but I am not sure that says much.
Dance, my little muppet chubbettes!! Dance!! Dance for daddy!!
I had absolutely no drive as a student and parents who did not care about school. Heck in six grade once I recalled I did no homework or brought home books for a few weeks and teacher was surprised. I recall in HS the Guidance Counselor once dragged my Mom to school to give her a earful about my behavior and lack of studying, I loved look on his face when she said you only have him 8am to 3pm weekdays and I am have him the rest of the time. So you better start doing your job of getting him to do his school work and stop bothering me as I have work and three other kids. Teachers are the worst, they take credit for smart kids and blame the parents for bad kids. My mom was only mom with guts enough to kick the ball back to their court. No I am not paying for tutoring, making sure he does his homework or helping him do his homework. The ball is in your court. Teachers are natually lazy.
Sadly I love school, the love hate relationship with teachers. I was extremely sad when I graduated Grad school as no more school, although I did some post graduate courses and thought a college class.
Best part was I had him and all my teachers by the balls. They had no parents to go whine to, they had to deal with me. One teacher actually told me I was his worst student in 30 years and he is taking early retirement rather than risk having another like me. He was not happy when I said thank you very much. Then I met my match. One teacher said outright I know all you kids hate me, none of you want to study but I am looking forward to the battle.
Painhrtz – I ain’t dead yet says:
May 25, 2012 at 11:04 am
JJ you forgot advised presidents and landed a man on the moon.
Big f ‘n deal I went to a school that’s main professions were drug dealers and public employees. Had no bearing on my success it is dependent on the parents and the drive of the students.
Hype you need to get your wife out of the essex county school system so you can get out of montklair
veets (83)-
Problem is, we’re not in a cyclical recession. We are in a once-in-100 years debt deflation implosion that is already triggering cataclysmic doom all over the planet. Soon, the full force of the doom will be upon us, and we’re still worrying about this year’s Idol winner and watching thug rappers perform on morning shows that are ostensibly devoted to reporting the news.
#84 There: A family member in Annandale tells me it is happening already.
There is no cycle at play here. What there is, is a supercycle whose outcomes will determine the course of the planet for the next 100-200 years.
3b (89)-
Hell, I live in Annandale too, and I can assure you that your relative is correct. Only question for me and mine now is do we pull my youngest from the HS and get the hell out now?
#58 skittles: I have my eye on two, waiting until early June, and than I am throwing 2 bids in, risne and repeat as necessary. If I don’t purchase by year end, than I guess we will have to live in my VW Passat!!!
If I could receive in return a VW Passat, all the guns I want and 25K in Krugs, I’d trade them straight up for my house.
Throw in a case of grenades, come to think of it…
Nah, i dont share that pessimism meat. this horrendous recession is nothing more than a little inflation and a few years of time cant fix but in a sustainable new normal way. America is a great country of winners, especially when chips are down. This is not haiti or kazakhistan. Long term, failure is completely off the table.
California… tumbles into the sea,
That’ll be the day I go
Back to Annandale
this horrendous recession is nothing more than a little inflation and a few years of time cant fix…
It’s only a flesh wound.
All I know is I want a VW Passat with crush valor. If I have to live in a car, at least I’m going luxury.
Lol Gary, You should get the passat with granite interior.
Pain (74):
The wife is really down on Essex county and NJ real estate in general. She does not like the tax dealo as she now realizes that you are making 2 mortgage payments for your house. So it appears that unless we get a multiple unicorn sightings in Montklair that we will not be buying in Essex County.
Awww, hell… let’s talk about real estate:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/53-Dalewood-Rd-West-Caldwell-NJ-07006/38742384_zpid/
It’s the fourth spring on the market for this beauty, and the fourth realtor. Sellers didn’t even buy it — their dead parents did. They probably think they’re being robbed of their birthright because it didn’t sell at $669k. I wonder how many offers above $500k they were ‘offended’ by since March of 2009?
Did I mention the identical house in much better condition that sold last summer for $25k less than their ask? Or that this property shows like a FK/REO?
09/18/2011 Listed for sale $499,900 — — Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage – 08/12/2011 Listing removed $499,900 — — Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage – 06/29/2011 Listed for sale $499,900 -4.8% — Coldwell Banker Residential 06/17/2011 Listing removed $525,000 — — Keller Williams Suburban Realty
03/11/2011 Listed for sale $525,000 -4.4% — Keller Williams Suburban Realty
12/26/2010 Listing removed $549,000 — — Weichert Realtors
10/15/2010 Price change $549,000 -0.2% — Weichert Realtors
10/03/2010 Price change $549,900 -4.3% — Weichert Realtors
06/26/2010 Listed for sale $574,900 -3.9% — Weichert Realtors
05/02/2010 Listing removed $598,405 — — NRT TriStates
03/15/2010 Price change $598,405 -5.0% — NRT TriStates
09/07/2009 Price change $629,900 -6.0% — NRT TriStates
03/06/2009 Listed for sale $669,900 — — NRT TriStates
I wonder if banks would give a mortgage to buy a passat with granite?
Moose [101],
Call the realtor and tell them you are interested in the house. Tell them you are brand new to the house buying procedure and seeking “professional” advice.
Neanderthal [102],
If this was 2006, the answer would be yes.
wickedorange – if you are out there…what street did you buy on in The Fly?
It seems to me that this site doesnt load up in a Motorola Droid. Are other people having the same problem? I enjoy this webpage and dont want to have to miss it whenever Im gone from my computer.
[90] “There is no cycle at play here. What there is, is a supercycle whose outcomes will determine the course of the planet for the next 100-200 years.”
Yup. The current supercycle started with Vasco da Gama discovering the sea route to India; it ends with millions of unemployed American muppets sitting around in POS capes Facebooking each other and wondering if they can get doubleplusgood ration cards by convincing our Chindian overlords that we are 1/32 minority and therefore entitled to more government handouts.
P.S. Buy now before interest rates rise and you are priced out forever!
Gary [97];
Its not to trivialize the magnitude of the problem, but it makes the point that inflation is the only way out. Its why the Fed has been systematically doing it since QE 2007. Nominal prices dropped because they had to — the banks couldn’t/wouldn’t lend at those levels any longer; but inflation is going to do the rest of the work.
Look at it this way: if you had $100k liquid and were looking at a 10-year time horizon. Would you buy something at $500k with 20% down, pay ~$3k a month with taxes; or spend the same $4k on renting a similar house (and seriously compare apples to apples on the rental cost here; because cheaper rentals simply won’t be the same quality). Do you really think that it takes more than $1k a month to maintain a house? Sure, the furnace can go at any given time and cowt $5k, but not every month. Same for the roof, etc.
And what to do with that $100k? Banks and CDs pay nothing; Treasuries? Stocks?
Even if you forget the psychic homeownership BS, if your living is chained to the ground in NJ (i.e., you’re not moving to Key West or Pittsburgh), what can give a better inflation hedge?
Gary [103];
Call the realtor …
Its like arguing with people I knew in college who still naively advocate socialism: it stopped being fun for me and they have no sense of humor anyway.
Moose [109],
In the long run, you are right. I can’t disagree. And based on life here in the People’s Republic of NJ, this is the best one could hope for. It’s a juggling act and no matter how you try to win on one end, you get slammed on the other end (property taxes). In a ten year horizon with 20% down, if you buy now, you’ll probably be ok. I still think we have a bit to go on prices, though.
#80 gary: The air is very rareified in Woodcliff Lake, perhaps you are not used to breathing that in!!
this horrendous recession is nothing more than a little inflation and a few years of time cant fix…
——-
I think that’s what some Japanese economists said 20 years ago…
here’s a weird one:
Last LP: $720,000 ML#: 1215863
Addr: 3 REVERE CT
Twn: OLD TAPPAN Zip: 07675
Est Cls Dt: 12/30/2012 UCD: 5/2/2012 DOM: 2
2 days on the market, snatched up..but not closing until basically 8 months later.
When I went to buy my Hyundai I also wanted to think it over lunch. The dealer insisted I take the said car with me…
My town of Bridgewater scored 350th on the high school Newsweek ranking, and they are very excited. Seems to be climbing up the rankings in NJ lately, and I heard from neigbors that a number of the seniors made it into Ivies this year. Seems good enough to discontinue the discussions about Pingry school for my little spoiled 4th grader for now. For the cost of Pingry between now and graduation, I could cover the cost of that Audi R8 spyder I was driving in Germany earlier this week, plus the first year of university. Or maybe just all of university and no R8.
(24)
JJ is now touting zip cars… you know, the manly thing to do
They are great. Companies in NYC often have to send IT folks out to Primary and Back up Data Centers in Secacuas during trading day, very hard to get to and in a rush they have to take taxes or town cars round trip. Now we let them do zip cars, saves cash and puts money in my wallet.
joyce says:
May 25, 2012 at 1:33 pm
(24)
JJ is now touting zip cars… you know, the manly thing to do
I prefer to take a nap in the town car any day…
118.JJ says:
May 25, 2012 at 1:40 pm
They are great. Companies in NYC often have to send IT folks out to Primary and Back up Data Centers in Secacuas during trading day, very hard to get to and in a rush they have to take taxes or town cars round trip. Now we let them do zip cars, saves cash and puts money in my wallet.
joyce says:
May 25, 2012 at 1:33 pm
(24)
JJ is now touting zip cars… you know, the manly thing to do
I dont think we are in a recession at all. I was in the gym at lunchtime. It was crowded. They are raising prices June 1st, then on way back grabbed a sandwich and I noticed the sandwich price rose 50 cents. Expedia and Tripadvisor stocks are up 60% YTD as americans are booking hotels and vacations and GM is selling new cars like hot cakes.
Moose and Neanderthal
Inflation will not cure this problem. Inflation caused the problem. Let’s say inflation “helps” with the nominal prices & debt… what does that do to the falling real (and nominal) incomes, what does that do to the price of energy and food
when is the last time inflation went into the middle/lower class incomes?
113
Daddyo… spot on
Are Montclair taxes really that bad? They are high, but Bergen, Westchester, Nassau, Suffolk are the same or higher.
The issue is more like how come Union, Hudson, Morris counties have lower than average taxes for NYC region?
JJ people go to the gym after they’re fired and have lots of spare time and need to shape up. I’d say lots of people is a sign of recession (or Spring)
As retiring empty nest boomers begin to accelerate to the exits, resulting in continuing downward pressure on prices, isn’t it logical to assume that the ultimate buyers will replace empty nests with full nests which will require more school seats putting upward pressure on taxes which will even further push down prices?
#120 JJ, your team is at their desks, working through lunch, waiting with bated breath to receive your email that it is okay to go home early and you are at the gym getting buff(er), love it.
Have a great weekend everyone.
Seif and 3B,
I’m surprised you viewed the Newsweek ranking as reflecting so poorly on NJ. Granted NJ was not ranked top 100 heavy, (Nassau and Westchester dominated that really) but on a per capita basis NJ had more schools in the top 1000 then any other state.
That being said, I put no stock in the ranking it actually reflecting the true quality of the schools, merely the the quality of the students enrolled.
I told them 4pm yesterday. I would prefer if they took a vacation day to be honest.
xmonger says:
May 25, 2012 at 2:27 pm
#120 JJ, your team is at their desks, working through lunch, waiting with bated breath to receive your email that it is okay to go home early and you are at the gym getting buff(er), love it.
Have a great weekend everyone.
If you are doing per-capital Nassau and Westchester distroyed NJ.
Nassau County is only 20 miles at its widest point and 20 miles long. How can a 20 mile by 20 mile county have so many more top schools than an entire huge state with sky high taxes? The Bronx has more top 50 schools than all of New Jersey.
Pete says:
May 25, 2012 at 2:33 pm
Seif and 3B,
I’m surprised you viewed the Newsweek ranking as reflecting so poorly on NJ. Granted NJ was not ranked top 100 heavy, (Nassau and Westchester dominated that really) but on a per capita basis NJ had more schools in the top 1000 then any other state.
That being said, I put no stock in the ranking it actually reflecting the true quality of the schools, merely the the quality of the students enrolled.
[110] moose,
You will appreciate this exchange with “Tony Daughtrey”, an unabashedly socialist lawyer in Tennesee on FB:
Tony Daughtrey: You can also add several brackets on the income tax to impose higher taxes on the richest. That’s what Congress did in 1932, roughly doubling the rate in every bracket and creating more brackets for the richest. Unemployment had been on a steep climb since 1929, and it fell sharply (until austerity measures in 1937 pushed it back up briefly).
Nom: Steep taxation designed to force capital into investment rather than salary works well when there is a reliable future stream of business from growth. And when there are no other alternatives. This was the condition in the 40’s through the 60’s. It isn’t anymore.
Nom: Unless you plan to recreate the conditions of reliable growth and lack of alternatives. For that, we need only look to one of our largest trading partners.
Tony Daughtrey: Tax increases also worked in Clinton’s first budget in 1993, and the 11 tax increases under Reagan also repaired some of the damage his first budget did, so I don’t think your limitations are correct. And we did create the conditions of the Great Depression (to a lesser degree) with the Bush economic plan, when tax rates were almost as low as the rates before and during the first three years of that Depression. We kept out of a similar hole recently because of Obama’s tepid stimulus, bank and auto industry bailouts, FDIC, Social Security, unemployment insurance and social safety net programs.
Nom: Oy, that canard again. Clinton increases “worked” only because the private economy (bubble as it turned out) was strong enough to withstand the tax drag, and we got surplus in part because Clinton decimated the defense budget. TRA 86 lowered rates but otherwise I agree with you on Reagan except that we still had far less international competition in the 80’s. As for the Great Recession, it didn’t come close to the Depression but that’s your view (the Carter-Reagan recession was worse than the second Bush recession). And I don’t believe that Porkulus did much of anything except bail out D state budgets; TARP was much more effective and had stanched the flow that everyone (on the left) gives Obama credit for doing. Auto bailouts–they were similar to TARP but no one explains why that was preferable to Chp 11 and DIP financing (unless you’re in the union). And are you now giving Obama credit for FDIC, SSI, UI and the preexisting social safety net?
Tony Daughtrey: Try not to be deliberately stupid. I only gave Obama credit for the tepid stimulus. I even shorted him on credit for the bailouts, because Bush bailed out Wall Street and Obama bailed out the auto industry. Pardon me for trying to avoid conveying my thought with a long-winded, stilted, legalistic sentence, because I forgot I was dealing with an idiot.
[cheap shots at one another here; I really can’t stand this guy]
Tony Daughtrey: As for Nom’s earlier point about raising capital gains tax rates, it illustrates his inability to think more than one level deep. We do run the risk that investors will move their money, but we can prevent that by denying them access to or taxing them for access to American markets. When conservatives started competing for investor money by cutting the cap gains rate, they began a race that sends vast numbers of people to the bottom even as it transfers more wealth to those at the top. Instead of investing so that economies can develop and generate widespread prosperity (as New Deal policies encouraged), the wealthy simply look for economies they can exploit and from which they can extract wealth without returning anything substantial back to those economies. It is a form of economic rape. It is imperialism using the power of wealth instead of military power.
The fundamental damage of globalism is that it is now easier to exploit economic differences among people so that the standard of living is diminished for all but a few. When Henry Ford built factories, he hired workers at decent wages and they in turn purchased Ford cars and products from other companies. Living wages are an investment in a living economy. Today, in contrast, Wal-Mart can extract the production of China for pennies and sell their crap on the American market. The Chinese workers don’t make enough to improve their own lives (though their 1% does well) and American consumers aren’t earning wages sufficient to sustain a consumer economy (though the Walton family gets even more money that they will never spend). They are extracting wealth from both economies to the detriment of millions of people, and if they refuse to reinvest in those economies, they need to pay for them with substantial tax increases on every form of their income.
++++++++++
I especially liked his call for capital controls and punitive taxes on investors. And I loved how he thinks I can’t think more than one level deep.
“Wal-Mart can extract the production of China for pennies and sell their crap on the American market”
“They are extracting wealth from both economies to the detriment of millions of people, and if they refuse to reinvest in those economies”
So buy shares of Walmart and join in on the party :)
Nom [129];
He’s got all the DU hallmarks and buzzwords there:
Contrary opinion is stupid (“Try not to be deliberately stupid”; “inability to think more than one level deep”);
“1%”;
“economic rape”;
“imperialism”;
“more money that they will never spend”.
However, they have nothing to say when the topic of personal property rights is raised.
Personally, I try to avoid shopping in Walmart because I don’t like buying cheap cr@p, no matter how inexpensive it is. That’s a far cry from cheering for them to be shut down.
Have you noticed how the lefty tide has turned against Apple since Jobs passed? Theirs is a Cult of Personality — anything can be forgiven of ‘correct’ thinking people, even those at the heights of the “1%”. All other must be destroyed — the only thing that is intollerable is dissent.
130 – Indeed! WMT trading at a 12 year high. Looks like the “unwarranted” beating they took over the bribery “scandal” was no beating at all.
[131] moose,
I don’t shop there either. Same reason and I hate dealing with people who can’t think beyond, well, they just can’t. Still, they serve a niche.
More on “Tony Daughtrey” From what I was able to deduce pretty quickly, he came from a low level undergrad, likely got into Vandy Law on his family’s coattails, then got into the state AG on said coattails, but later got shiitecanned and has been bitter about it ever since. There are addresses with a firm address and two names, both derivations of his own, and Tenn. Bar listing shows him as “inactive.”
Friggin’ tool.
I have friends at work who say they don’t shop at WM just because they can’t stand looking at the creepy regulars. I never had that impression, but I don’t go there that often and the closest one is in Quincy or Framingham. Well, a couple weeks ago I was out in Framingham and I needed Mobil 1 Synthetic oil for the new car and nobody beats WM’s price. JEEZ! It was scary. I realized I probably hadn’t been in one since the mid-2000’s and I don’t think the clientele here in MA looked like that back then. I think the poverty line really is drawn between people who shop at Target and people who shop at WalMart.
Bill Clinton he was not. When it came to smoking pot, the teenage Barack Obama had rules. You had to embrace “total absorption” or face a penalty. When you smoked in the car, “the windows had to be rolled up.” And he could horn his way in, calling out “Intercepted!” and grab the joint out of turn.
Hey, at least he wasn’t a bully. :o
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-high-school-pot-smoking-detailed-maraniss-book-154948662.html
[132] seif,
FCPA violations can be pretty hypertechnical, and almost always violate company policy. WMT is getting dinged because it did not disclose “quickly enough” for commentators, but this passage from The Economist sums up the problem pretty succintly:
“Walmart’s decision not to alert the authorities sooner may have been a gamble. The benefits of self-disclosure vary from case to case. The Justice Department has no public guidelines on its treatment of those who confess. It is not clear whether self-disclosing firms get a better deal at all. A study of FCPA cases from 2002 to 2009 found that voluntary disclosers paid a higher fine per dollar given in bribes than non-disclosers. A more recent study, covering 2002-11, found disclosers more likely to be allowed to strike non-prosecution agreements, which carry less of a stigma than pleas or deferred prosecutions. Oddly, however, non-disclosers that co-operated thoroughly once caught reaped bigger reductions in their penalties than co-operating disclosers.”
Given that environment, some lawyers advise clients with potential FCPA issues to stay silent if the problem is low-level. No good deed goes unpunished.
[134] expat,
Second that. The only WM that didn’t set me to grinding my teeth was the brand new one in Manchester NH where I went to stock up on cheap beer before coming south. Normal enough folk except that you had a disproportionate share of wide-body women. And I mean wide-body. Yikes.
There is one in Union that I’ve been to once or twice but I am afraid of being in a gang crossfire there.
Hey Barry, don’t be a bogart, pass that bone!
[131] Moose
I also like this bit of historical revisionism: “When Henry Ford built factories, he hired workers at decent wages and they in turn purchased Ford cars and products from other companies.”
River Rouge???
[137] -Nom, Walmart – In ’97-’98 we lived in North Hampton, NH and I used to go to the local WM there every now and then and I don’t remember anything adversely catching my eye. I think I read recently that WM sees a marked sales drop now the week before transfer payment recipients receive their “checks”. Apparently the day the new funds are available in many states, the money hit’s the recipients’ accounts at midnight and the stores are packed from 11PM on. They fill their carriages and just mill around until midnight when their cards are “good” and then the lines get long at the checkouts.
There is actually a website or tumblr called “Seen at Walmart” or “Spotted at Walmart.” The photos are not for anyone with a weak stomach. I believe it focuses mostly on Walmarts in the South.
[140] expat
That area used to be really nice, somewhat exclusive. My dad and I used to go use the courts at Winnacunnet High—it was like a prep school.
[142] Nom – We moved up to that area just because my (yet to be) wife and I liked the area so much. We both moved up with savings but no jobs and I intended to consult out of Portsmouth but it being ’98 and all I got involved with a Boston start-up and we moved down the next year. My wife’s sister and her boyfriend (eventually husband) lived right off (maybe right on) Winnacunnet so we would visit often and eventually were up there for the wedding and decided it would be a cool place to live, and it was. The commute down to Boston was even a pleasure…off season.
Just to close the circle on WM, when I was walking out of WM, guess who I ran into? The guy I play tennis with twice a week. I’m pushing my cart across the parking lot with my 7 quarts of oil and he’s coming toward the store with his wife and daughter and it was funny and awkward for a second. “I’m just here to pick up oil, it’s 3 bucks cheaper a quart.”, “We’re just returning birthday presents, we don’t ever shop here.” Hilarious. My daughter was at his daughter’s birthday party the weekend before and I didn’t have anything except oil in my cart so there was enough plausible deniability to go around.
[143] expat
Portsmouth? Too funny. Mrs. Deplume was living in Exeter when we met and moved to Portsmouth shortly thereafter during her last year of law school. We moved over to near Manchester after that. Did not move out of NH until late 1998.
Our first “date” was at the Gaslight in Portsmouth. Wonder if it is still there?
Published without comment:
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/23/do-tax-credits-encourage-work/
[144] Nom
Exeter? Too funny. We still have a place in Exeter. Actually it’s a 10 x 20 storage locker and it may be just outside of Exeter, but we always go through Exeter to get to it;-) We’ve been renting it since 1997.
Two things that have initially struck me as weird in NE, after leaving NJ:
1. Roads named after towns they lead to, not the towns they’re in, with different names at each end. The road that runs between Hampton and Exeter is Exeter Rd in Hampton and Hampton Rd in Exeter.
2. Light switches on the outside of bathrooms.
[147] expat
1. Actually, kinda makes sense doesn’t it? Back then, very few roads and the most obvious description is where it is intended to lead.
2. In older homes that was the norm but later building codes outlawed it. More older pre-code homes up there.
[146] exeter,
10X20? That’s pretty big. And to rent it from 1997? What are you storing there, bodies?
I have a rule about storage lockers: I won’t spend more for storage than the stored items are worth. Unless they are quite valuable, irreplaceable, or sentimental, they aren’t worth storing.
I read (129) and you’re both wrong on the majority, and correct on less than a handful of points
“partisan” bickering, pathetic
Moose posted about personal property rights; how does that fit in with your “TARP worked” comment, Nom?
#96,
Nice Dan reference, Gary. I’ve been trying to work this one. I think Jim was predicting the future housing collapse.
Successful hills are here to stay Everything must be this way Gentle streets where people play Welcome to the Soft Parade
All our lives we sweat and save Building for a shallow grave Must be something else we say Somehow to defend this place Everything must be this way Everything must be this way, yeah
The Soft Parade has now begun Listen to the engines hum.People out to have some fun. A cobra on my left Leopard on my right.
JJ’s plan for the Memorial Day Weekend.
http://i.imgur.com/5c3kh.jpg
nom [145]
EITC is dumb concept but not for the reasons the blog author thinks. It forces the taxpayers to subsidize wrong things and/or corporate profits [people agree to work for $7 per hour flipping burgers –> McD can profitably sell burgers at 99 cents –> same people and their kids buy cheap burgers and get fat –> you pay EITC and Medicaid costs for the same people which come to maybe maybe 30 cents per burger…]. Would be much cleaner if the minimum wage were say $12, no EITC, and the burger at $1.50. If we want to subsidize some work with taxes let it be direct employment – I can point at hundreds of graffiti-ized walls in NJ that I’d love to see cleaned and painted over.
And when all else fails, we can whip the horses eyes and make them sleep…and cry.
[149] Nom, storage –
I have similar rule about property tax: I won’t spend more in monthly property tax than the monthly rent on the nicest apartment I ever had;-)
I have a rule about storage lockers: I won’t spend more for storage than the stored items are worth. Unless they are quite valuable, irreplaceable, or sentimental, they aren’t worth storage.
[149] Nom, stoppage – (cont’d)
Renting is a good deal for your stuff if you have the right landlord and a good relationship. I have a two car garage with electricity in the good section of Dorchester (Adams Street). $150/month, rent has never been raised and I’ve had it since 1998. Two cars and my “serious” tools stored there for almost 15 years with no problems. I met my landlord face-to-face once. He’s a fireman on the South Shore, his mother-in-law, now deceased, used to be the owner of the two family that sits in front of my garage, 10 years ago she used to watch my infants while I wrenched on my vehicles. His mother, if she’s still alive, lives across the street. Needless to say, he *always* gets paid on time.
grim – storage not in your site’s dictionary? Auto corrected to stoppage? I had to correct it several times in my previous post. This is a Paypal squeeze, right? Every day we don’t ring up $100, we get a word taken out right? OK, I’ll cover today. The rest of you step up. How about an annual Memorial Day PayPal-athon for grim?
[156] expat,
Doorchestah, eh?
At least you weren’t in Stab’n Kill.
OT Alert: “Tingles” doesn’t like his nickname.
“MSNBC “Hardball” host Chris Matthews lectured a fellow television reporter when asked about his 2008 comment that a speech from then-candidate Barack Obama sent a “thrill up his leg.”
Matthews was taking part in a discussion with C-SPAN host Steve Scully, who asked, “Is the thrill still there?”
Visibly annoyed, Matthews turned to face Scully and offered a detailed defense of his comments before saying, “Perhaps I shouldn’t have said so because I’ve given a lot of jackasses the chance to talk about it.”
“I hope that you feel satisfied that you’ve used the most obvious question that is raised by every horse’s ass right-winger I ever bump into,” Matthews added. . . .”
______________
Hmmm, if he doesn’t like being treated as a shill for the left, perhaps he shouldn’t be so obvious in his shilling for the left. Just sayin’
Moving closer to the Thelma & Louise moment in Urrp.
“We have discussed the realities of Spanish (and Italian and Portuguese and Greek) debt to GDP data relative to the official estimates a number of times over the past few months and just as Mark Grant tells Rick Santelli today, the sugar buzz of self-financed sovereign bond buying hides the truth – until now when that liquidity is fading. From inaccurate data to LTRO ineffectiveness, ‘Grantelli’ sum it up nicely as the ‘Bond Run’ we have seen over the past few months (as professionals flee European banks and sovereigns) has now trickled down to the man-in-the-street and their equivalent – the bank-run.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/mark-grant-and-rick-santelli-europes-bond-turned-bank-run
plume (159)-
Matthews is just another retard lickspittle, unwittingly carrying water for the criminal rackets that are running Amerika into the ground.
[160] meat
I like this Santelli rant better:
” SANTELLI : . . . does Mr. Friedman think Social Security is a Ponzi scheme?
FRIEDMAN: No, I don’t think it’s a Ponzi scheme.
SANTELLI: Earlier in the show you said that we’re putting the burden on our kids that’s unsustainable. What’s the definition of a Ponzi scheme?
FRIEDMAN: It’s a program that made promises that it cannot keep in full and it needs to be fixed and reformed.
SANTELLI: Isn’t that exactly what a Ponzi pyramid is?
FRIEDMAN: I don’t think it is a Ponzi scheme as a criminal endeavor.
SANTELLI: No, no – forget the criminal side. You need more people to perpetuate a myth because if the people stop the myth is known to all. That’s my definition of a Ponzi scheme. Let’s call at it chain letter, a pyramid scheme. Isn’t that by definition what Social Security is? Take the legalities and fraud out.
STEVE LIESMAN: Why is it a Ponzi scheme, Rick?
FRIEDMAN: It is pay as we go. Ronald Reagan fixed it. Why can’t we fix it?
SANTELLI: What does Ronald Reagan have to do with my question?
FRIEDMAN: What does your question have to do with reality?
MICHELLE CARUSO CABRERA: We brought it up.
SANTELLI: You can’t decide that more people is the only thing made Social Security work. We have a real issue because many people in government seem to like to read your work.
FRIEDMAN: What makes Social Security work is fixing Social Security in terms of the population demands.
SANTELLI: I didn’t ask if we should fix it or not. I asked if it’s a pyramid scheme.
FRIEDMAN: Your question is idiotic. That’s what you asked.
SANTELLI: You’re idiotic. I’m done. I feel good.
FRIEDMAN: So do I.”
Have to give the nod to Santelli. He points out that Friedman said it was unsustainable then backtracked, and then Friedman tried to change the narrative. When that didn’t work, he resorted to name-calling.
Wasn’t that right out of Alinsky? I didn’t read it. Schab, can you confirm?
Spending the next two days in Manalapan at a soccer tournament. Oh Joy! I get to spend the day with a bunch of Brig soccer moms and their brat kids.
There are not many things I dislike about the brig, but the Wilson Prep parents top the list. Basically, one should not send their kids to Wilson Prep unless (a) hubby works on WS, (b) mom stays home, (c) kids play soccer, lacrosse or swim, and (d) kids are above average. If you don’t fit that mold, you had better consider private school.
What a creepy night down memory lane tonight. I googled a guy who used to work for me back in ’98. Bright guy, MIT grad, smart enough to buy a $600K house in Wellesley in ’98 (I thought that was a stupid move, he was making maybe $80K at the time, but he was right). His new claim to fame? Level 3 sex offender. In and out of jail in a short time and now (or recently) employed by another alleged sex offender. He was (and from the video is still) an arrogant guy. I remember interviewing him and he claimed to be part of the elite MIT Blackjack card-counting crew. What he didn’t know when he told me that is that I used to make many a solo trip down to AC from Rutgers at 2AM on a weeknight so that I could play one-on-one against the dealer (am I sounding like JJ?) and practice the same craft. He was a liar. I didn’t want to hire him, but he snowed my colleagues and we hired him as Chief Architect. We let him go in the first round of layoffs, but he was an interesting guy. Here he is in video, judge for yourself:
http://www.myfoxboston.com/story/17775010/high-risk-sex-offender-working-at-apt-complex-in-hull
Most countries have their social security systems running on a pay-go basis with social tax rate fluctuating depending on the ratio of workers to pensioners. We should have done the same in the 80s instead of creating a trust fund that became a lure for Congress as a source of revenue to be diverted. Ponzi schemes are only sustainable when the number of participants increases exponentially which makes them fraudulent (there are only that many fools around). Social security is not fraudulent since USG has the means to enforce the tax required to support the benefits (and actually either eliminating the withdrawing threshold now, or increasing the rate from 6 to 8% 10 years from now will pay the current-law benefits indefinitely).
Nom [159];
Advice for Tingles: You said it… own it, big boy.
That would take a certain level of self-confidence in one’s character.
[158] Not local for long enough to know it, I tried my hardest to figure it out, figured it had to be loosely phonetic, but couldn’t get there. Quick google search made up for my decreasing cognitive abilities. LOL. I kind of like Savin Hill except for the one way in, one way out deal. Some pretty cool houses there and it’s on the “good” Red Line, right? No danger of ending up in Murderpan.
At least you weren’t in Stab’n Kill.
[167] My bad. I had to check because I used to take the red line a lot, when we lived in Wollaston. Stab’n Kill is the first stop on the “bad” Red Line branch. I was confused because there was a time when I used to bike from Cambridge (Inman Square) to Quincy and I’d pass the Savin Hill station. That’s why it was on my mind as one of the “good” stations. Pretty much all of the Boston subways are cool except for the Mattapan brach of the Red Line and the Orange Line South of Boston, right? And even those aren’t too bad by Bronx and Brooklyn standards.
The Jersey shore has now been ruined for the season. Polluted by North Jersey trash.
Heres a few pointers for you scumbags.
1. No black T-shirts at the beach.
2. Dont wear jewelry to the beach.
3. Drive a real car. Your rice burners cause accidents and no one is impressed at your cheap way out of paying car insurance.
4. Take a shower. You shouldnt be able to taste the smell coming off your clothes.
Going to risk making you homesick again. My 8 year old plays in the Watertown “Skills League”, even though we don’t live there. They welcome Boston kids. They import European 20 somethings to teach the kids while I play Tennis at the Watertown courts adjacent to the field with my friend who’s daughter also is in the program. We get 90 minutes of hitting in twice a week while our kids do drills for 60 minutes and scrimmage for 30. Unfortunately, I think that goes away in September when they move onto traveling teams, which I guess is your current hell. Looks like my wife will be doing some shuttling in Sept;-)
Spending the next two days in Manalapan at a soccer tournament. Oh Joy! I get to spend the day with a bunch of Brig soccer moms and their brat kids.
[170] is for Nom.
Last
41,
Gary,
I got smoked on my home buy in 2008. It was a wash though. I sold my POS condo for a profit at the same time. Socialistic living is not for me. Condo living is the worst of both worlds. Get raped by property taxes and homeowner fees. When the next door neighbor fails to pay his fees everyone elses goes up.
Same thing goes for all the sh_thead boomers out there moving into retirement communities. They buy into the marketing, “Hey! We’ve got a bus stop to take you to AC! Come drive a golf cart around our ready to die community!”
Only buy in established neighborhoods. Look for families with kids. They tend to be more stable. Old b_stards, renters, and section 8 should be avoided at all cost.
In a declining market, buying laterally is a(lmost) wash. Buying up is a loss, buying down is a win. A recently retired schoolteacher who lived near us downsized to a 1BR condo in Brookline (nice cosmo place to live for you NJers). She had the right attitude. She told me, “I know I’m selling into a down market, but I’m also buying into that same market with less than I’m selling for”. She was exactly right and happy with her purchase today.
173,
Always better to deal with smaller numbers. Home prices are still drastically overpriced even after the decline. The main issue now is not home price but carrying cost. Taxes, taxes, taxes. 400k isnt a big deal if it can be financed at 3.0% especially with severe inflation looming. Leveraging into a hard asset in this case may be a smart contrarion move.
The problem is instability. With no reform taxes are going to go parabolic next year. Even my accountant said prepare for revolution. Thats a big statement from a guy that wouldnt hurt a fly.
The whole system is corrupt, unsustainable, and is going to collapse. No one will be spared as Meat says. What cant be sustained wont be. Juast get your self in a position where you can leave the sinking ship or buy all the life rafts.
3b 79 – got it.sometimes we are forced to move even if we dont want to, happened to us before 97. Wish you too a very wonderful home soon.
Raising taxes are a concern but more of concern is what Gary@54 says – Wait until they get up to use the bathroom at 3 AM and hear a steady drip in the wall. Or, how about maybe the hot water heater goes…. the day before Thanksgiving. Or, maybe the sewer leading to the street needs to be snaked at 1 AM on a Sunday night because some kid dropped a sh1t load of toys in the toilet back in 1972. Or maybe the circuit board for the freezer blows, just call the landlord, right? Lol! Wrong answer!! You are the landlord… and the muppet serf!! That’ll be $400, please! Lol!
That and the thought of the buying process – going back to the agents and lawyers……
apart from sentiments of home-town and putting down roots, putting money into a home sounds better than CDs….so gotta get down it all over again :-(
How many times can a 60 year old structure be bought and sold without the price going down? Look at the sh_t people are buying in N Jersey. That inventory is complete trash. The fair value for a circa 76 bileve lis 200k. The rest is land value.
F_cking nightmare. Dont buy that crap. Just rent for the time being until things play out. We aren’t far away now.
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