From Reuters:
U.S. housing market recovery key to boosting growth – IMF
The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it believes a recovery in the U.S. housing market is key to eventually boosting economic growth in the United States and bringing down the country’s unemployment rate.
The IMF’s annual assessment of the U.S. economy released on Thursday forecast U.S. growth strengthening from current low levels of around 2.0 percent to about 3.4 percent by 2016 and 3.3 percent in 2017.
“We know that over the next few years the formation of U.S. households and depreciation of the housing stock will imply there will be a need for about 1.5 million homes to be built on a yearly basis,” IMF economist Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti told a conference call with reporters.
“That is clearly going to be something that will help U.S. growth over the medium term and of course a firming of the housing market will have all sorts of positive implications … in other sectors connected to housing,” he added.
good morning NJ
The housing market had over 6 trillion dollars impact in our economy before the bust.We need close to that amount in demand to replace what was lost to get to full employment.From furniture,refrigerator makers to retail sales.
What can replace lost $6trillion dollars in our economy to get the jobless working again?It is a long walk home.
Potholes
The question is: where do you go and what do you do when oblivion is at hand?
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2010/12/art1full.pdf
Bronx Bull JJ?
‘Raging Bull’ sequel now ‘The Bronx Bull’
http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/02/showbiz/movies/raging-bull-sequel-ew/index.html?c=showbiz
Grim it’s not bizzare. You acknowledge employment and the housing market are connected right? I’m not sure if you remember my comments to some of your earlier posts from this year but I spoke of how I observed contractors that put on my addition install maybe 90% American made products. Most contractors I’ve dealt with are very patriotic and go out of their way to buy domestically made materials if they can. The point I was trying to make at the time by stating those observations is that it’s likeley that increases in transactions in the housing market are magnified into increased economic activity in the US. This could mean growth, which could mean job creation right?
Think about it. Guy with a family buys a new house and moves out of his tiny crappy rental. Think of all the building materials needed to make the home and all of the appliances (funace/central ac/stove/microwave/dishwasher/water heater/etc). Much of those things are still made here. He then needs to fill it with furniture and all sorts of other crap needed to raise a family.
Guy with a family buys a previously owned home. It’s likely he’ll need to fix it up and maybe replace the appliances or put on an addition or do some renovation.
Household formation is forecast to increase and people need to live somewhere.
The question is, how can people afford to buy houses if they’re unemployed and how can housing create jobs if people can’t afford to buy them? There must be some catalyst to unlock this potential and get the engine running again.
Figure that one out, and you get the njrereport nobel prize for economics.
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July Nonfarm Payrolls: +163K vs. consensus +100K, prior +64K (revised from 80K). Unemployment rate 8.3% vs. consensus 8.2%, 8.2% previous.
More on Nonfarm payrolls: Average hourly workweek unchanged at 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings up $0.02 to $23.52, +1.7% Y/Y. Revisions a wash: May +10K, June -16K. Labor force participation rate declined 0.1% to 63.7%, but the employment-to-population ratio declined further (-0.2% to 58.4%), leading to a higher headline UE rate (8.3%)
closed in The Fly:
Last LP: $799,000 ML#: 1213197
Addr: 67 LAWRENCE PKWY
Twn: TENAFLY Zip: 07670
Orig LP: $849,000
Sold: $766,000
Taxes: $16,782
SD: 7/31/2012
*does not include dump on the kitchen floor
[main post] Maybe our borders aren’t porous enough, holding back demand? Green cards for everyone! Our economy depends on it.
“We know that over the next few years the formation of U.S. households and depreciation of the housing stock will imply there will be a need for about 1.5 million homes to be built on a yearly basis,” IMF economist Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti told a conference call with reporters.
Fabius,
It would be ironic if she shot herself with her own gun. Is it ironic if someone ties Michael Phelps hands and legs and throws him into the ocean to drown? Because that’s the equivalent to her story.
When you conduct hurts other people or their property, that’s where the line is drawn. Having a gun in your pocket or on your hip is harming no one. The same could be said for various other objects. It all depends on what you do with them.
The right to self-defense is a natural right. Your right to self-defense using a gun is specifically named in the constitution. If you do not like it, fine. But without an amendment, any gun control legislation is unconstitutional (but that doesn’t matter any more). “shall pass no law” and “shall not be infringed” are very easy to understand phrases. In terms of registering your gun or giving up finger prints, why should you be forced to jump through hoops to exercise your rights? Are you also a fan of requiring permits and fees in order to have a protest?
How can you hold such thoughts that are anathema to freedom?
104.Fabius Maximus says:
August 3, 2012 at 12:28 am
#39 joyce,
The great irony is that a woman who was so vocal on 2nd amendment rights to protect herself, goes to the grave with GSW on her death certificate. The circumstances are secondary.
Part of the problem is that 2nd amendment defenders seem to me, to see gun control, as an all or nothing deal. I think of it more in first amendment terms. You have the right to bear arms, but there should be some natural limits. You have the right to free speech, but you don’t have the right to shout “fire“ in a movie theatre.
Another measure of household formation and vacancy rates
by Bill McBride on 8/02/2012 10:31:00 AM
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/08/another-measure-of-household-formation.html
It is difficult to find good and timely data on the number of household formations in the US, and also for the number of excess vacant housing units. The decennial Census is probably the best measure (and also the ACS), but those two estimates aren’t consistent (the Census Bureau is looking into the reasons why). Another Census Bureau survey, the Housing Vacancies and Homeownership (HVS) is clearly flawed. The HVS indicates that the number of occupied households increase by 809 thousand over the last year – and that seems too low.
Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia, has been looking at Postal Service data.
From Jed Kolko at Trulia: Housing Glut or Housing Shortage? America’s Got Both
With this post, we present a new measure of vacancies, based on U.S. Postal Service (USPS) monthly data on the number of addresses that are and are not receiving mail. … Here’s what we found.
Nationally, the number of occupied housing units – that is, those receiving mail – rose by 970,000 in the last year, from mid-July 2011 to mid-July 2012. Over the same period, the total number of housing units – those that could receive mail – rose by 760,000. The difference – 210,000 – is the reduction in the number of vacant units. That’s a 5% drop in the number of vacant units nationally. As a percentage of all units, the vacancy rate declined from 3.6% one year ago to 3.4% now.
In fact, vacancies have declined in 90 of the 100 largest metros.
There is much more in Kolko’s post.
This data suggests close to 1 million household formations over the last year. I have less confidence in the count of housing units, since total completions only increased by a little more than 600 thousand last year (single family, multi-family and manufactured homes) – and there were also some demolitions.
Clearly the vacancy rate is falling – and the number of household formations exceeds the number of housing units added to the housing stock.
[8] Brian – All of your analysis begins with “Guy with a family buys… ” and ends with “creates jobs”. Sounds like cart before the horse. Where does the guy with the family get the money to buy? Assume a can opener… (Thanks Nom)
Guy with a family buys…
Guy with a family works for a green energy company that builds solar panels, duh. His wife is a construction worker that does roadwork for shovel ready public projects, including the potholes referenced in #4.
#17..in that case, they didn’t build that business!
18 – Edited.. All is now right in the world.
Yes, I admit that in my post.
“The question is, how can people afford to buy houses if they’re unemployed and how can housing create jobs if people can’t afford to buy them? There must be some catalyst to unlock this potential and get the engine running again.”
16.The Original NJ ExPat says:
August 3, 2012 at 9:56 am
[8] Brian – All of your analysis begins with “Guy with a family buys… ” and ends with “creates jobs”. Sounds like cart before the horse. Where does the guy with the family get the money to buy?
[17] BUZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ! Wrong Answer grim. Thanks for playing our game. The Chinese government is committed to owning that space and will out-print the U.S. Fed to subsidize that industry such that no US company can produce a cost competitive product. The US government would have to step in in a huge way to out subsidize US production or tariff/ban solar imports.
Guy with a family works for a green energy company that builds solar panels, duh.
[20] Brian – I stand corrected, you did admit it which I noticed a second or too after I posted my response. I think the whole projection of increased household formation is a scam. Lot’s of boomers like SRK housing their adult children. The kids aren’t going to form households with their smaller retarded population at a rate greater than the much larger population of their parents dies off. Boomers buried > Retarded young adults moving out. Take two 30-something kids addicted to their X-boxes in their parents separate basements. The parents all die and the two 40 year olds consolidate in one house selling the other house to buy the iPhone 7 and super data plans.
Sarcastic pessimistic NJ Guys with families in cramped rentals on the fence about homepurchase who barely survived the 2008 recession and somehow kept their jobs finally break down and buy houses.
NJ has got to be full of people like that right? :P
The smart ones will look at property taxes and move to a larger rental. The dumb ones are making two car payments, $500/month in phone, data, and cable bills, carrying credit card debt on their flat screens and past vacations, so they won’t be buying either.
Sarcastic pessimistic NJ Guys with families in cramped rentals on the fence about homepurchase who barely survived the 2008 recession and somehow kept their jobs finally break down and buy houses.
NJ has got to be full of people like that right? :P
Expat 21 you know that was satirical from grim.
Brain 23 you assume much.
What if the monthly PITI on a purchase is less than rent on the same size home? Do they rent just because they fear commitment?
24.The Original NJ ExPat says:
August 3, 2012 at 10:21 am
The smart ones will look at property taxes and move to a larger rental. The dumb ones are making two car payments, $500/month in phone, data, and cable bills, carrying credit card debt on their flat screens and past vacations, so they won’t be buying either.
[25] Mike – I know it’s satirical now, but I was responding to the unedited version, which could have been taken either way, as could my response. Before grim edited it it simply read:
Guy with a family works for a green energy company that builds solar panels, duh.
Mike 26 you know that was satirical from me.
The only growth industry in Amerika is control fraud.
For the rest of us, nothing to do but wait for oblivion.
PI = fixed and known, TI= variable and unknown but the trend is pretty obvious, Future cost of renting also unknown. Look at the other side of the coin, would YOU (you personally, not you a bank) lend me $400,000 at 2.75% long term secured by a house. The answer is yes if you knew you could sell the debt very quickly for a profit, the answer is obviously no if you (again, you personally) had to hold the debt to maturity(yeah, yeah, I know your CU holds your mortgage). The banks aren’t interested in a long term commitment on the known and fixed PI part, why would anyone want to assume all the variable risk on the TI and the other factors? (Kind of rhetorical, I know all the reasons). Put 40% down, buy at a price of 3 times a single income in your household, sure have at it. 10% or less of your own money down, qualify on two incomes…well, in that case you get what you didn’t pay for.
What if the monthly PITI on a purchase is less than rent on the same size home? Do they rent just because they fear commitment?
Yo the output gap you speak of was a bubble. This is the new normal. The next bubble needs to be even more massive than the housing bubble which was bigger than the tech bubble. Problem is the next big bubble the “Green Energy” bubble died in it’s infancy. Without another bubble in something get used to the new normal.
[30] Ernie – Are you surprised that Wm Black hasn’t gotten the Matt Simmons treatment yet?
The only growth industry in Amerika is control fraud.
For the rest of us, nothing to do but wait for oblivion.
expat (33)-
I think TPTB like having Black around, in the same way many people enjoy pet gerbils or hamsters.
TPTB have so thoroughly captured all the mechanisms of control that they feel invincible. Hopefully, this will be their undoing.
Juice 32 Ding Ding Ding!
29 OK Brian for minute there thought you were serious.
Brain 27 if it not a substantial dif (choose your own metric) renting is safer, once you own you own it. As you know I am buying TI is 1/3 my rent so it is worth it to me, no Pi involved. Now we can talk about lost opportunity on capital I guess.
Clot (30):
Don’t be so down, look at the markets today. HAL and Skynet love part-time jobs.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/full-time-jobs-197000-part-time-jobs-31000
This is pure theater for the election. I actually feel a little sorry for Mittens. He may be rich but he does not have a Ministry of Propaganda like the Chairman. You will see 1450+ on the S&P by the election.
A hypocrite wants a line item veto on the Constitution. A hypocrite takes financial advantage of a system, and then complains as he deposits his outsized paychecks……
joyce says:
August 3, 2012 at 9:51 am
Fabius, Your right to self-defense using a gun is specifically named in the constitution. If you do not like it, fine. But without an amendment, any gun control legislation is unconstitutional (but that doesn’t matter any more). “shall pass no law” and “shall not be infringed” are very easy to understand phrases. In terms of registering your gun or giving up finger prints, why should you be forced to jump through hoops to exercise your rights? Are you also a fan of requiring permits and fees in order to have a protest?
How can you hold such thoughts that are anathema to freedom?
To be clear….the U.S. and NJ are not better than other places in the world or country. But if you feel the need to complain how sh!tty it is here…..THEN LEAVE!
I was out doing some repair on my rental last weekend.
Went into Lowe’s and found myself confronted by 10 employees with 2-3 asking if they could help me find something. I was in the garden center and was looking a rain spout to pull water away from the house. It was on the other side of store, lady stopped what she was doing, walked me all the way to the other side and by the end of the search, I had three employees helping me find a 7$ piece of plastic.
I noticed no less than 15 employees in the store on a Sunday morning with many just standing around at the end of the isle ready to help you find something, or deter theft. I’m not quite sure which.
I was talking with the guy helping me to put stuff in the truck (yeah they have those guys there too). He said that they cut his hours from 3 days a week to 2 days a week. I said, “so your working two jobs?”. Nope, that was his only job.
I’m reading some article on zero-hedge that also talks about the growing number of part time employees. Apparently job quality is a big issue.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/full-time-jobs-197000-part-time-jobs-31000
39 – ha! almost everybody on here complains about how awful jerzee and the u.s. on a daily basis…but none of them are leaving. you complain about it everyday – have you packed up the moving van yet?
as far as reinvestor101, i am gonna say there is NO WAY that it is JJ or grim.
Phil Mushnick
EQUAL TIME
* So who, currently, is the biggest player for American TV sports rights? Fox? ESPN? CBS? NBC? Turner?
Nope. It’s Al Jazeera, owned by the fabulously oil-rich country of Qatar.
To feed its new beIN sports network, Al Jazeera has been hurling barrels of money for rights to the world’s biggest soccer leagues, and it’s eager to buy into all sports — here, there and everywhere.
In order to enter the U.S. market, Al Jazeera, an international rights specialist this week told us, is willing to pay cable operators to clear beIN. In other words, Al Jazeera doesn’t want to be paid by operators, to make room for its sports goods it’ll pay them!
“The players here for big league soccer — Fox, ESPN — are being blown away by Al Jazeera,” the specialist said. “Remember, they’re not competing against a corporation, but a government, and one with more money than it can spend.”
Qatar, despite its blistering heat and inaccessibility, in 2010 won 2022 World Cup soccer rights because it made an offer that drained the senses of FIFA. Governed by Sunni Islamic law, Qatar also is known for systemic repression of women.
Would big league U.S. teams or leagues sell Al Jazeera some or all of its TV rights?
“There would be political issues. And there’s a competitive advantage to a bidder that’s not a company but a country,” the specialist said. “ Yet, where money can talk, money talks. It already has.”
I like NJ
No I don’t…..I complain about idiots….
seif says:
August 3, 2012 at 11:41 am
you complain about it everyday – have you packed up the moving van yet?
Sh1t I’m even taking all of my vacations at the Jersey shore. Crabbing was good in Seaside this year by the way.
I hope a crab bites you in the nuts this summer.
46 –
I feel a bowel movement coming on….where exactly do you live?
Question for the board – my parents have had their house listed for a few months, no real bites. They get a letter from someone who came to an open house saying if they are still interested in selling in a few months, he has a good offer. If the realtor contract expires before this, do they have to pay commission?
I plan to leave NJ as soon as I’m no longer employd in NJ. I love my job here, but the current government in NJ has done nothing to make doing that job here more desirable than anywhere else. I think there are a lot of places where I’d rather be living and doing this job.
You would think after 5 straight years of policy aimed at reflating the housing bubble, they would have given up.
32 – Juice
The problem with trying to blow another bubble is how? The last two bubbles were blown by lowering interest rates. That horse is dead and buried.
Some bubbly reading for reinvestor101. He would probably like to admire the cover of the economist while eating his chik-fil-a sandwich.
http://www.businessinsider.com/dont-count-america-out-2012-7
The US will probably recover or falter in spite of whomever is president.
48 – Daddyo
I believe yes.
Think about it, if Realtors couldn’t come after you, then everyone would list their house for a month, find a buyer, can the realtor, and sell the house without commission. However, the realtor may have difficulty proving it, and I also believe there is a time frame after the contract expires with the realtor, but not 100% sure.
“In addition, Cowen pointed out that as poorer countries first develop, they crave raw resources to build infrastructure like copper. America doesn’t specialize in these resources and has missed out on a big part of the emerging market export bonanza thus far. However, as these countries get wealthier and begin to import more high-end services and goods like pharmaceuticals, entertainment, and advanced technologies, they’ll shift their demand to America.”
“No industry shows America’s promise across the 21st century like technology. It’s an industry which harnesses the best traits of America: the drive for innovation and entrepreneurialism. It’s an industry all Americans can truly be proud of.”
“To truly grasp America’s dominance of the technology space, one only needs to look at a list of the largest tech companies in the world. Nine of the ten largest are American. The first European company doesn’t show up until No. 11 on the list.”
Chicagofinance: Didn’t you post an article a while back that spoke of the abundance of tech startups in NY surrounding the Google heaquarters?
Who wants to help a lady out?
http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/health/obese-woman-loses-weight-marathon-sex-article-1.1116995
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#54 why are you holding a bag? Put it down, it must be heavy.
Where’s JJ to comment? I guess he would ask daytime or noctural? or else, was the crabbing intentional?
Bagholder Brian says:
August 3, 2012 at 11:52 am
Sh1t I’m even taking all of my vacations at the Jersey shore. Crabbing was good in Seaside this year by the way.
“the realtor may have difficulty proving it”
Unless the people signed in at an open house. Also, after the sale is complete, if the buyer told the RE agent, then the seller could have an issue. “Hey, Pal. I know we closed three months ago but, the toilet is running and the stove just broke. I think you should fix it. By the way, has the RE agent figured out that you cheated him out of a commission? See you tomorrow — black, no stainless steel, by the way.”
Maybe JJ is busy doing his part for 55’s weight loss program.
Crabs at Seaside, no surprise there. It has always been a good place to catch them.
Stu,
Didn’t you and some buddies go crabbing there two or three years ago? I think you posted photos.
Are the crabs in the bag?
63 –
No they are in your shorts.
daddyo (48)-
Imagine how good that offer must be.
Back to oblivion watch.
Perhaps oblivion is marathon sex with a 700 lb bag of spoiled cottage cheese.
64 but I don’t wear shorts.
The End Is Nigh (Olympian Urinating In Pool Edition):
Best avoid the Olympic swimming pool until it’s drained after the games: American swimming star Ryan Lochte, who won five medals in London, has admitted to urinating in the pool.
Not during the races, he told U.S. broadcaster Ryan Seacrest — “but I sure did in warmup.”
Um … why? “I think there’s just something about getting into chlorine water that you just automatically go.”
Is anyone familiar with Summit? Are their sections that one should avoid complete? I’ve heard the ‘term’ Slummit’ once or twice in the past, not sure what to make of it (or if it even refers to the town).
Thanks
[39] chifi,
“To be clear….the U.S. and NJ are not better than other places in the world or country. But if you feel the need to complain how sh!tty it is here…..THEN LEAVE!”
Okay. For NJ anyway.
[39] chifi,
“To be clear….the U.S. and NJ are not better than other places in the world or country. But if you feel the need to complain how sh!tty it is here…..THEN LEAVE!”
Okay. For NJ anyway. Will miss the Brig, but not the rest of NJ.
Brian is a meanie!!!!
Ernest
google “fat chicks in party hats”
Is it a girl or a circus tent sized beanbag?
Dong Dong wins gold in trampoline. All is right in the world today.
Peeing in the pool; grills; 1-night stands and a mother who pitches in….America’s best on world stage. And we wonder why the kids are the way they are today and the rest of the world views us as a society in decline? Nice! Keep up the good work Ryan!
[69] chicagofinance says:
August 3, 2012 at 2:17 pm
The End Is Nigh (Olympian Urinating In Pool Edition):
Best avoid the Olympic swimming pool until it’s drained after the games: American swimming star Ryan Lochte, who won five medals in London, has admitted to urinating in the pool.
Not during the races, he told U.S. broadcaster Ryan Seacrest — “but I sure did in warmup.”
Um … why? “I think there’s just something about getting into chlorine water that you just automatically go.”
Sorry…….
Meat/Clot/Hobo/Ernest (whatever) has me on the defensive a lot. Makes me a bit jumpy I guess.
I probably should just leave him alone and ignore his comments. It’s probably somewhat dangerous….. kind of like teasing the lions at the zoo…
73.houseshaveneeds says:
August 3, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Brian is a meanie!!!!
Joyce,
The parts of Summit with the $2 to $20 million dollar houses is the good part. I think it roughly works out to “north of the train tracks”. The rest is the less good. The area next to Overlook hospital looks seedy.
I only lived nearby, 12 yrs ago, so my opinion is only worth $0.02.
[70] Joyce,
The south side is considered the worst, but I’d avoid all of it. I am very familiar with Summit because the wife worked there and the kids went to day care there. Five years ago, we looked at houses in Summit. A lot of them. And after seeing the houses, getting to know the town, and, most importantly, meeting the people, we decided there was NFW we wanted to live there.
Around the same time, I asked a pretty well known real estate attorney I knew where I should look. I mentioned Summit, Madison, Chatham, NP, Mountainside, etc.
He asked me “you have kids?” I said yes.
“Westfield” he said.
Now that I’ve been here a few years, I can appreciate why, and not just because it is a great place to raise kids. It dawned on me that I see a lot of retired folks here that don’t leave. And I’ve met lots of homeowners here that grew up here and, when they had a chance, they moved back here. Tells you something about a place when a not insignificant portion of the people moving into the town are originally from the town.
I know I sound like a cheerleader for the brig, but I use it as a comparison vs. Summit. If anyone asks me what the Brig is like, I tell them that it’s like Summit without the attitude.
Won’t miss being in NJ but I will miss it here.
Reporting from my private sector job at smaller software company. Geezus… tons to do, many hats to wear and earning every penny for sure. And speaking of real estate, my house sold in eight days. We took comps in area and priced it based on that. House is neutral color, smaller price range to swallow, nice curb appeal… who knows what did it. Maybe because you can move right in. Whatever. Need to find a house now. I think I’m f*cking crazy but I just feel it’s time. On final note, Oblama reveals how much of a f*cking mutt he is more and more on a daily basis.
Thanks for the input regarding Summit.
I’m still in NJ only because of my job. I lose this job, I want out. Problem is, my DH can’t stand the cold and I hate the heat. But since I do anything to keep the peace, it’ll be south we go…either Triangle area of NC or else join the wingnuts in Collier County, Fla. I’d say Vermont and we’ll just crank up the heat, except that when one is looking at old age, cold and snowy doesn’t really appeal…
Back to RE. I’ve been reading this board for many years and will be closing on a home soon. I almost capitulated into buying a home a few times over the years, but I can say unequivocally, with the help and reinforcement that I needed at times from this board, I’ve saved over $500K in price depreciation of homes I had targeted during the years. I’m buying today not because that I think the market has hit bottom – the moratorium threw off my timing a bit and I think it still has a little ways to go over the next couple of years – but because I need to settle in a home that my children can call “their’s” and do what they have wanted to do with the rooms, get a dog, etc. Plus, the way we’ve been printing money, I think I like to lever up on debt (this from a person who hasn’t had any sort of debt in 20+ years). I don’t anticipate making a dime when or if I sell the home – just breakeven would be nice. I just hope we can control the taxes. So many thanks to all the contributors to this board!
Completely separate from the market bottoming or not and related to Brian’s posts, has “waiter’s” fatigue finally overcome rational and logical thought processes in regards to housing markets?
I cannot say things are better in regards to… well anything, so that leaves one to wonder if their life situation trumps sound financial plans.
In which case, ultimately that could be extrapolated to say that conditions do not need to improve for housing to get better, it just will because people will “want” housing much like any other commodity.
Going farther out on that limb, that could in effect restart our economy as manufacturers, supply chains, and distributors rise to meet the impatient demand of home buyers who have given up on waiting for a bottom? There is a large stock of housing out there in terrible condition, and either they fall down decreasing availability or they get bought and repaired…
I live in Brig and work in Summit. It’s more specific than north/south. There are some good neighborhoods on the southwest side of town towards New Providence. But even the worst areas are not what I would call bad, just more blue collar.
We had the choice of where to live a few years ago, and looked in Chatham, Madison, Summit, Cranford, and Westfield. We ended up in Westfield, but we also liked Madison a lot. I walk around Summit every day, and I can say a lot of the town is “out of touch”. Westfield really doesn’t have the same feel at all.
3b, are you around? This is for you:
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/08/state_police_at_assemblyman_bo.html
Yes, Bob Schroeder, a self-styled “rising star” in the Republican party with an eye toward the governor’s mansion, gets nailed for passing $400,000 worth of bad checks. He claims on his Web site to be committed to fiscal responsibility.
Sounds like the beginnings of a stellar career in NJ politics.
“Bob Schroeder, a self-styled “rising star” in the Republican party with an eye toward the governor’s mansion, gets nailed for passing $400,000 worth of bad checks.”
Shhhhh….don’t tell members of the Elite 140…
Bagholder Brian says:
August 3, 2012 at 12:48 pm
“No industry shows America’s promise across the 21st century like technology. It’s an industry which harnesses the best traits of America: the drive for innovation and entrepreneurialism. It’s an industry all Americans can truly be proud of.”
“To truly grasp America’s dominance of the technology space, one only needs to look at a list of the largest tech companies in the world. Nine of the ten largest are American. The first European company doesn’t show up until No. 11 on the list.”
Chicagofinance: Didn’t you post an article a while back that spoke of the abundance of tech startups in NY surrounding the Google heaquarters?
Jill [86];
R’s seems to be late to the party on taht score. The NJ Democrats have been successfully running convicted criminals on the ballot for years.
Rewind [89];
Speaking of which, has anyone seen John Corzine lately? The only recent indications I’m aware of that he’s still alive are the Obama donations that he continues to bundle.
Seriously, no word from JJ lately? Did he recently list his house?
http://www.chron.com/news/article/Wife-Emails-show-NY-man-plotted-to-fake-his-death-3759883.php
MASSAPEQUA, N.Y. (AP) — A jobless man who was reported missing after going for a swim in New York — only to turn up days later speeding down a South Carolina highway — had sent emails discussing a plot to fake his own death, his wife said Friday.
. . .
Evana Roth said her husband had recently been fired from his job. He also put their house up for sale; a listing has an asking price of $550,000.
. . .
Evana Roth said she knew nothing of the circumstances until police officers came to her home last month . . . . “I couldn’t tell you, he didn’t talk to me, we didn’t have that type of marriage,” she said.
(By “that type of marriage,” I can only assume she meant what JJ would consider the newfangled type of nancyboy marriage where a husband and wife actually speak to each other.)
89-90
what does it matter who or which is late(r) to the party? they’re all criminals; being less worse (depending on the day of the week) is not a good thing
[83] Congratulations, Ponderer. And same to you Moose. Wish you and your families the best in your new digs.
But “I just hope we can control the taxes.” — Good luck with that.
joyce [92];
So you’re saying “Vote Cthulu: Why Settle for the Lesser Evil”? ;-)
Re Summit and Westfield . . .
Maybe it’s just bias depending on what town you know better, but I don’t think Summit is any snobbier than Westfield. I have definitely come across plenty of snots in the original Brigadoon.
They are both nice towns that have “great” areas and “good” areas, with some very small fringe areas that are somewhat run down and in poor locations due to commercial zoning etc. But neither can be said to have “bad” areas.
Paging Ernest…
Will the US Really Experience a Violent Upheaval in 2020?
So when calls for blood in the streets hit the mainstream media, is that like when the shoeshine boys are giving stock tips?
Seriously though, were the late 60’s bad enough to compare to the civil war riots? Seems like a weak pattern at best.
79. Westfield seems like a nice town. Kind of a throwback with a real downtown and a fairly homogeneous populace. I think buying a home in NJ is a real mistake any way you cut it. But hey, I ‘own’ one here. I think it opened a few doors for me, but a part of me wishes I hadn’t jumped in around 2002.
80. “Smaller software company” oh Christ man, don’t go shopping just yet. Been there and done that tech trip. Two IPOs and a bunch of worthless stock. Know-what-i-mean-Verne??
Why is everyone so sad and mad? Why be sad and mad when you can be glad? Is it not better to be glad than sad and mad? Even if they take a dump on your kitchen floor? Or take your crabs from the shore from your bag? No far more reason to be glad. Not as in glad bags or wrap but rather glad as in happy. So be glad glad glad and not so sad and so mad.
SX [98];
Christ man, don’t go shopping just yet.
What’s the worry? If the worst happens he can just default like everybody else, right? Nobody gets removed from “their” house in NJ anymore, whether or not they pay the nut. The only mistake to make is the one I made, putting real money down. Speaking of which I need to call my mortgage broker and look into that ‘equity liberation’ HELOC…
Been away for a while, #3 was born a few weeks ago. Haven’t seen Gary these past couple of days — I hope he didn’t get run over by a unicorn herd up there in Brigadoon-upon-Hackensack . . .
Anon E. Moose says:
August 3, 2012 at 3:54 pm
Rewind [89];
Speaking of which, has anyone seen John Corzine lately? The only recent indications I’m aware of that he’s still alive are the Obama donations that he continues to bundle.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/corzine_is_having_no_fun_in_the_j3V0C11N4SPYJuG7YFBnsJ
congrats….get some sleep….
Happy Renter says:
August 3, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Been away for a while, #3 was born a few weeks ago. Haven’t seen Gary these past couple of days — I hope he didn’t get run over by a unicorn herd up there in Brigadoon-upon-Hackensack . .
[103] “congrats….get some sleep…”
Thanks, Chi — that’s why I’m at the office ;-)
Going down in flame.
The Senate majority leader put out a long statement reiterating that “I was told by an extremely credible source that Romney has not paid taxes for ten years…It’s clear Romney is hiding something,and the American people deserve to know what it is.” In addition,CNN’s Dana Bash reported last night a source “very close to Senator Reid” insists the source is “a Bain investor” and is “credible.”
Wow. Imagine four more years of Bojangles after he trounces Mittens, with no more re-election campaigns to contest and the delusion that he has some sort of mandate.
I would not trust Bojangles to replace Pat Sajak on Wheel of Fortune.
OTOH, it is at least entertaining to see the Dumbocrats have learned all of Atwater and Rove’s dirty tricks. So weird to see them being the attack dogs and the Rethugs lying there like paralyzed llamas.
[41] seif – Haven’t lived in NJ since ’97 and haven’t owned or paid property taxes in NJ since ’87. I hang out on this comment stream just because I intimately know the Northern NJ RE landscape but I really only know a probably less than 10 mile radius around Boston, where we own our current home. Up here I think the situation has been mitigated to a certain extent by the College Tuition bubble; lots of NJ, NY, CT, and California money floods into our economy which I think fools a lot of homeowners in the Boston area that our storm has passed. I think the big one, for us, is still gathering on the horizon.
39 – ha! almost everybody on here complains about how awful jerzee and the u.s. on a daily basis…but none of them are leaving. you complain about it everyday – have you packed up the moving van yet?
Armpit guy had just gotten this tattoo and was super eager to see what it would look like once the hair grew back.
http://melaniehamlett.com/2010/05/18/
[104] Happy renter – Welcome back and congratulations on the new tax deduction. gary just got a job and has been posting as “Fast Eddie” for a little while now.
What do you care? You constantly tell people not to vote anyway.
Where is the Democrat living app
http://www.propublica.org/article/is-your-neighbor-a-democrat-obama-has-an-app-for-that
112 is for 108
Ex pat admit it you don’t hang around here for NJ Real estate commentary, you hang around for JJ stories like the rest of us…
Brian one day you will be a cranky old man too….
[116] Juice – I’ve heard mention of this JJ guy and his stories. Is he a realtor?
Ex pat admit it you don’t hang around here for NJ Real estate commentary, you hang around for JJ stories like the rest of us…
Oh, wait, now I remember. JJ is that bi dude who claimed he warmed up Michelle Bachmann’s husband for her and then she walked into the motel room in an Adidas warm-up suit with a cat-o-nine-tails in one hand, gave him $5 and a firm handshake and then proceeded to mount her now aroused husband while JJ pretended to leave and peered in through the blinds from outside the room, right? Yeah, he’s a hoot.
I just looked it up in the archives:
JJ says:
August 8, 2011 at 12:22 pm
I swear she looks like some lady whose husband I did like 20 years ago on vacation. Craziest thing ever, her husband had this crazy problem he could not get it up for her unless she watched him do some guy like me first. She did not give me her name as she said she had some important type job where it would ruin her if anyone found out, but I am 99% it was Michelle.
Al Mossberg says:
August 8, 2011 at 12:06 pm
Anyone need a good laugh on this doomy day? Check out the newsweek’s cover pic of Michelle Bachman. They make her look insane. LMAO.
Re: 118 – ExPat – yeah he is a hoot, and for some reason he has NJ envy, Long Island has the better train commute but he confessed a few years ago about wanting to live in a McMansion is Saddle River as long as the kitchen has a large granite countertop island. We all have stories JJ just tells them better. I have been to Hedonism in Jamacia too on Spring Break, no Bachmann story for me just a cute Coed I hooked up with on the beach, and the raunchy French girl that week back when people were wearing Body Glove shorts, the rest of the story most of us leave to the imagination. JJ other hand reminds of of our careless/reckless youth that few here can emulate.
[120] Yeah you have guys who are ball-busters, guys who are one-uppers, but not JJ. He’s a pure valor crusher.
ExPat – not sure if anyone here has met JJ, but based upon his consistency he is the real deal, we should vote for JJ as Pres.
[122] Nothing to lose in giving him a shot at the big job. His position at Knight Capital isn’t looking so secure now, anyway.
ExPat – not sure if anyone here has met JJ, but based upon his consistency he is the real deal, we should vote for JJ as Pres.
Not sure if he works there but anyway JJ is not a programmer he is a bean counter, he understands accounting is not a science but simply a method of the madness. He will survive and if he gets the pink slip I am pretty sure we can find him work perhaps Magic Mike II as the dad or something.
[96] moose
I know what you and money look like so you can pass perimeter security.
Wow, even the Europeans are falling out of love with The One? This is a partial op-ed from a Prague paper (allegedly-seif or fab can snope it for veracity)
” … It will be far easier to limit and undo the follies of an Obama presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to a depraved electorate willing to have such a man for their president. The problem is much deeper and far more seri ous than Mr. Obama, who is a mere symptom of what ails America. Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. The Republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, merely a fool. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools, such as those Who made him their president.”
I said it before: Tytler was right.
It occurs to me that the folks in Prague know something about the effectiveness of redistributive economic policies, and firmly rejected a version of it about 20 years ago.
Expat is right. Boston is gonna bite it hard when the edumacation bubble blows. Princeton, too. Let’s see how well these overpaid, ivory-tower soci@list academics who have stuffed at least 2-3 generations of brains full of pure shit take to scrubbing toilets at a Days Inn.
Better yet, let’s see how well these eggheads can handle a AK or Mossberg when the ultra-violence gets going.
Oblama is a f*cking mutt. I said it before, he’s the con man who takes a few puffs from a cig and saves half a burnt stub in his jacket pocket. Listen to him when he’s improvising without a prepared speech; he’s a bullsh1t artist, a stumblebum, a blithering lump. People got snookered the first time around. Let’s see how truly slow-witted the masses are this November if they vote to get duped again.
Bitch!
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I wonder how many cartons of Newports Bojangles orders at a time
OTSpoiler alert
Williams absolutely destroying Sharapova on Court 1 in gold medal match. Utter domination. And the look on William’s face early on said “I’m gonna make you my bitch and you’d better like it”.
Too bad this wasn’t during the Cold War.
OT spoiler alert
It just gets uglier for Russia. Halfway thru 2nd set and Sharapova hasn’t won a single game.
Of course, Sharapova is basically an American so the Russians can disavow her.
Okay, Sharapova finally held serve. But all Williams has to do is hold serve and its over.
[136]Golden Slam.
[137] On a regular week day a JJ story would be shortly following this comment.
Golden Slam.
Sign O’ The Times: Lochte’s parents allegedly stopped paying off their mortgage in 2011 and now are swimming in $242,239 of debt.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2183584/Ryan-Lochtes-parents-face-losing-Florida-home-falling-deep-debt.html#ixzz22aX2NNBc
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2183584/Ryan-Lochtes-parents-face-losing-Florida-home-falling-deep-debt.html
Essex 139 not to worry I’m sure he can bail them out with his picture on a box of Wheaties.
Expat 138 LOL , JJ would have surely rolled out a good tale on that one.
138: Isn’t that the one where he had the entire ’96 Women’s Soccer team (er, sorry, futbol) and they each awarded him their medals for his efforts?
139: 2011? Slackers, way behind the curve for FL.
Buffett’s been betting big on housing, and not just in ResCap loans. A few reasons to play along, according to Joe Light: 1) New-home inventory is at a five-decade low (heading to less than six months’ supply); 2) Prices are making their move up, and may have momentum; 3) price-to-rent ratios are back to levels from a decade ago. He’s seeing investors playing it with builders like KBH and LEN as well as shorter-lease REITs.
Just saw that , fire away.
Escaped the heat today with a trip the Peabody-Essex museum in Salem, MA. Impressive Ansel Adams exhibit just opened a few weeks ago, it’ll be there until October. To see those beautiful pictures from the 30’s through the 60’s reminded me of how black and white all of life used to be.
Expat good idea should have gone over to the MET, love it there.
The asian art and asian export displays were extraordinary as well. The one piece I can’t get out of my mind is 15 ornate concentric spheres carved out of a single piece of ivory about the size of a baseball. I’m glad I just found an article on the very item or I would be sorely tested in my ability to articulate to even begin to describe it:
http://articles.boston.com/2012-05-29/theater-art/31866444_1_ivory-hole-spheres
[147] expat,
Last time my daughter was there, she bought me a tie with little sharks on it.
The list of benefactors of that museum reads like my client list from when I was at State Street. Actually, for families, it was my client list.
Pretty good, albeit small, analysis on who is expatriating and why:
http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2012/08/02/the-renouncers-who-gave-up-u-s-citizenship-and-why/
One takeaway I get from this article and other coverage: This issue is now receiving a lot more coverage and monitoring than I had anticipated. I had said that when this topic lands on Congress’ front burner, don’t stand in front of the exits. So far, it hasn’t landed there yet (anyone heard from Chuck lately?), but I think it only a matter of time.
[148] Nom – I was paying close attention to the “Donated by” and “On Loan from” notations. I was also thinking about what are the positive tax ramifications of donating these two 17th centruy ugly portraits of my ex-husband’s ancestors…;-)
Interesting poll results. Had not expected some of this.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/156347/Americans-Next-President-Prioritize-Jobs-Corruption.aspx
[151] Nom – Poll results. I’m an engineer and those breakdowns make my head hurt. I get the same feeling when I’m looking at my kids’ school test results. I scratch my head and think, OK, these kids are proficient, these kids are advanced, these kids are advanced/and/or proficient? My head spins with with Extremely and Very important. Extremely > Very and those columns show Extremely (alone) and Extremely + Very (combined), but not Very (alone), which I guess we could extrapolate, right? (ouch!)
Expat 152 I confused I guess that is the point!
Nom 151 very interesting.
Ex Pat “I was paying close attention to the “Donated by” and “On Loan from” notations. I was also thinking about what are the positive tax ramifications of donating these two 17th centruy ugly portraits of my ex-husband’s ancestors…;-)”
You are of the fairer sex never would have guessed, must be getting old.
Howdy from Nashville, TN. Truly is Music City. Grand Old Opry and
Studio B was very cool.
157. Good Ol’ Nashvegas….I’ve got family there from the early days. Believe it or not, Dinah Shore is in the mix somwhere. Never appreciated anything country except Johnny Cash and a few outlaw types though. Country music in the 70’s was horrific.
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