From CNBC:
Recent reports have shown home prices rising, especially in the housing markets which were hardest hit in the crash.
Investors, buying in bulk, have been swarming these distressed markets, seeking to take advantage of a thriving new single family rental market.
The strong demand from investors has pushed supplies down, causing prices to rise. But as housing recovers, and more fence-sitters decide to jump in, will the rental market remain strong?
Rents are still rising.
Nationally, rents rose 4.7 percent in August from a year ago, which, while still a gain, is down from the 5.8 percent annual increase in May – making it the slowest rise since March, according to Trulia.com. Some markets, however, are still hot, with rents up around 10 percent year over year. These include Houston and Seattle, Denver and San Francisco.
“Rents had been on fire earlier this year, but some of the hottest rental markets are starting to cool,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “New construction that started last year is finally coming onto the market, giving renters more choices and some relief from rising rents. Still, rents are climbing in nearly all of the major rental markets.”
…
A new report from Rent.com quantified many of the reasons potential buyers are delaying home ownership: 47 percent are waiting to save a down payment , 11 percent are waiting for the real estate market to stabilize, 22 percent are waiting for their credit to improve to qualify for a home loan, and 20 percent are waiting to feel more secure about their employment situation.
Phirst.
Although a 4.7% yoy increase is still pretty darn steep.
Good Morning New Jersey
Jobs day…..
Give us a good print for my birthday.
The print is doctored.
Happy Birthday, Grim!
Appropriate given the recent discussion on the board…
The lengthening life of your ride
http://cnnmoney.mobi/primary/wk_article?articleId=urn:newsml:CNNMoney.com:20120907:older-cars.moneymag:1&category=cnnm_business&pagesize=10
Happy birthday, Grim!
choice is clear, ain’t ?
“I won’t pretend the path I’m offering is quick or easy; I never have,” Mr. Obama told a packed arena of 20,000 party leaders and activists. “You didn’t elect me to tell you what you wanted to hear. You elected me to tell you the truth. And the truth is, it will take more than a few years for us to solve challenges that have built up over decades.”
Happy 40th Grim!
I’m not 40!!
Grim Happy Birthday! I’ll take forty in heart beat.
Now that convention over, numbers under consensus and revisions downward. Participation down too.
+91k, lower than expectations
UE falls from 8.3 to 8.1
Mesirow says QE3.
Prior 2 months revised down by 40k, UE change due to smaller workforce.
Wow, anyone see shiny take off after jobs number? Glad I kept some.
I agree with Santelli. October surprise comes in form of big drop in U3 just before election.
The New Yorkers are back! The New Yorkers are back! Pent up demand!
http://montclair.patch.com/articles/new-york-buyers-buoy-montclair-housing-market
Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 8.1 percent
Let me hear how less than 100K jobs are created and this number falls to 8.1%? Let me get this straight: next month, we’ll get a similar number and UE will be 7.8% Correct. Please explain this phenomenon!
Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2012 to 09/06/2012 is 14.9%
This is what I have heard a lot of people in amazement about. We have a stock market making huge runs. Yet the news story is housing has returned a lousy 3% last year like it is amazing. BTW drill down into data and you see BC and LI broke even last year. Did not rise at all. That is a national number.
We are sill seeing people plow into treasuries paying 1.6%, munis paying 2%, corporates paying 5% and junk paying 7% and housing breaking even like it is the second coming of Christ. Man up Men, greed is good, we will soon have a major “melt-up” in stocks. Greed will drive it, investors are sitting in cash and missing out on a bull run, at some point they will be forced to jump in. Like homebuyers in 2002, 2003 and 2004. Sure it was already up, but a train is living the station jump on or get left behind.
I bifurcated my stocks and bonds by setting up a new account just for stocks. Stock account is up like 14.9% to date while bonds up just 4.5% to date. As you know I am not a big stock guy but the bond train has left the station a few months ago, the stock train is pulling out, all aboard!!! RE train is next to leave. RE train in Nassau County and Bergan County is tied to stocks and Wall Street bonus checks and stock gains. The stock train must leave the station so the RE train can pull out next.
Remember back to October 2008, you heal the treasury mkt, then GSE MBS, then investment grade, then munis, then junk and then stock and then RE. The waterfall effect. Ben and Timmy G have done a great job.
Happy Birthday Grim!!
#20 Fast: Smaller work force, less people looking, perhaps as in why bother. I know quite a few kids 2 years out of college, no real jobs, all smart conscientious kids good schools etc. Are not these supposed to be the next generation, that will increase demand for housing/ Just saying.
The listing below is a short sale in the land of the Unicorn. It has been on the market for over a year. It was listed at 239K, no takers, so the asking price was INCREASED to 242K. That extra 3k increase should get it sold. Hurry, hurry!!!
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1219488&dayssince=&countysearch=false
Grim [11];
I’m not 40!!
“I’m 37. I’m not old.” http://youtu.be/rAaWvVFERVA?t=30s
3B 24 – Our sellers tried that. After they rotted on the market for a few months, they increased their ask by 10K once they were able to boot their tenants.
We bought the place about 6 months later for $110k below their increased ask.
Great strategy.
I am guessing grim is around 35 or so.
#26 Gator: Crazy and the listing posted is on a main, main drag. You cannot park on street, and have to back out of drive way.
36
Knew a guy from overseas that said that houses on main streets were more desirable because everyone driving by would see your house and know you were a rich and successful American.
What is the sense of paying for a big showy house if nobody ever sees it.
Stu – remember that teardown on Grove in Clifton? Top of the hill across from the Tudor mansion? Drive by.
[23] 3b
Now that lack of focus on not learning languages is really starting to hurt. Lotsa professionals across the world globe-hop; numbers of people who are expatriates (garden variety, not renunciants) is increasing, and since those jobs aren’t here, they are going overseas.
Housing will be helped. Just not here.
[9] AX
Decades? To hear the left talk, all our problems came to be during the years 2001-2009.
Funny how when elements on the left criticize NAFTA and GLB, among other things, they get squashed pretty quickly. Think about it; the unions were quite vocal about NAFTA, and a lot of people on the left fought GLB in 1999 and some complained about it after the collapse, yet those voices calling for repeal of either seem to fade out pretty fast.
Shout out to two friends of mine:
http://www.lawjobs.com/newsandviews/LawArticle.jsp?id=1202570260943&et=editorial&bu=Law.com&cn=nw20120906&src=EMC-Email&pt=LAWCOM%20Newswire&kw=Skadden%20Launches%20Silicon%20Valley%20Tax%20Practice&slreturn=20120807094109
Happy Birthday Grim. Go enjoy yourself today!
Gary (20):
We are going to have a 7% unemployment rate and a 62% labor force participation rate.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/08-2/Labor%20Force%20Participation%2063.5.jpg
OK, I am bidding on a short sale that needs two new baths asap. Long story short horrible tacky old baths where owner had a big leak on second floor bath that leaked into first floor bath and did a bunch of damage and mold under tub and on ceiling so got to go. Contractor tells me no big deal mold, cracked floor etc as he rips everything out anyhow. He goes to beams, new plywood etc on floor regardless. So guy comes back with his quote today. Mind you last time I was involved in a bathroom re-do was 1989 and lived at home so I guess prices have gone up a lot. But these prices seem crazy. I still have to buy tub, sink, faucet, toliet, tile etc. He is just ripping out and installing. Granted a lot of labor to do 2.5 baths, but is it just me or is this a lot. This quote is a fully licensed contractor using legal people with permits. So I get that is more. But this price. What do you think?
Work Proposal- (Approximate Pricing)
Bathrooms-
• Removal and Replacement of: (Demolition, framing, electrical, plumbing, sheetrock/wonder board, tiling, tape/spackle/paint
• 1st floor Bathroom (3-piece)-$15,000
• 1st Floor 1/2 Bath (2-piece)-$10,000
• 2nd Floor full bath (3-piece)-$15,000
*Allowances-$5,000
gator (19)-
Like PT Barnum said, a sucker born every minute.
hype (35)-
We are going to have a big, fat civil war.
JJ: How big is the bathroom, and what is getting tiled? It seems crazy to me, but then I am about to pay $6500 for a guy who is going to remove an old vanity and toilet, demo the existing tile floor and install new subfloor and tile, take out an old medicine cabinet, patch the wall, hang a new cabinet, move an electrical box for a new light fixture, demo and replace the ceiling, replace a pipe from the upstairs tub while the ceiling is open, install a new fan and run a vent through to the outside (soffit), install a new vanity and plumging, replace the oild toilet, and remove and install 6 new interior doors with trim. Again, licensed contractor using legal people with permits.
My bath is 5 x 7; how big are the ones your guy is quoting for?
Happy birthday grim, enjoy some sort of slavic alcohol
But these prices seem crazy. I still have to buy tub, sink, faucet, toliet, tile etc. He is just ripping out and installing.
I’m assuming he’ll be eating the allowance, so your talking about approximately $45,000 for him, and another $10,000 in fixtures and tile. All in, that’s about $55k…
http://www.remodeling.hw.net/2011/costvsvalue/division/middle-atlantic/city/new-york–ny.aspx
#30 grim: I was also told once that Asians will typically not buy on busy streets. Don’t know if that is true or not.
43 – Oh No! Somebody better get the message out to Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Shanghai.
:)
It’s probably bad feng shui, too yang maybe.
Big deal, this is the average speed on the Turnpike right now.
http://autos.yahoo.com/news/texas-to-open-fastest-us-highway-with-85-mph-limit.html
Remember that modern techniques allow the transplant of chest hair when your hairline recedes…….also, you can use clot as your model for dying chest hair and wearing tinted bifocals……HB BTW
grim says:
September 7, 2012 at 9:22 am
36
From HousingWire:
HARP refis drop 23% in July
Roughly 96,000 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages refinanced under an expanded Home Affordable Refinance Program in July, down 23% from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
Banking analysts previously said the HARP 2.0 boom would slow by the end of the summer. The report Friday from the FHFA showed activity coming off a peak of more than 125,000 refis in June.
Still, more than 519,000 GSE loans refinanced under the program so far this year, far surpassing the roughly 400,000 in all of 2011.
The FHFA eased guidelines by stripping out limitations on loan-to-value ratios and some repurchase risk on the original loan. Lenders also waive appraisal requirements and other upfront fees on some refinances.
More than 26,600 borrowers with LTV ratios above 125% refinanced under HARP during July, roughly half the amount in June. Before, only between 1,500 and 3,700 severely underwater borrowers took advantage of the program each month. Before lenders began implementing the new guidelines, these borrowers were not eligible.
Roughly 20% of borrowers refinancing under HARP shortened the term of their loan to 15 or 20 years in order to rebuild lost equity faster.
..According to this morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate for August fell to 8.1% compared to 8.3% in July. If you like your news positive and grossly oversimplified stop reading now; the details on the report are hideous.
Consider:
•Nonfarm Payroll Employment rose by 96k compared to estimates of 125k – 130k and a far cry from the average growth of 139k in 2012. Last year the average monthly gain was 153k.
•July’s NFP number was revised lower from 163k to 141k.
•The greatest gains came from the food services and drinking sector. In other words, from waiting tables or bartending. These are some of the most brutal, lowest paying jobs extant.
•The labor force participation rate fell to 63.5%, the lowest read in over 30 years. When this number goes down so does the stated unemployment rate. To get to 8.1% unemployment, 368,000 Americans had to drop out of the labor force.
No matter what you hear or read elsewhere, America’s job picture is getting worse. Much, much worse. My Breakout co-host Matt Nesto and I discuss the report in the attached clip.
Starting with the participation rate, Nesto notes that “almost 400,000 people dropped out, just gave up” looking for work in August. For each one-tenth of one percent improvement in the unemployment rate, 184,000 Americans had to become quitters.
Quitting could mean going on disability, going into the grey market (read: getting paid cash for odd jobs), doing something illicit, or begging. Whatever they’re doing instead of working or looking for legitimate jobs, 368,000 Americans gave up on participating in the economy in August alone.
What would it take to make you just give up entirely? That’s what hundreds of thousands of your fellow Americans went through last month. Think about that if anyone tries to tell you a drop in the headline rate is anything but more evidence of an ongoing national disgrace.
..
Regular sized, sink toliet on left tub on right, most likely six by ten. I think for that price it should include base home depot quality sink, toliet, shower etc. I think crazy assuming he is not providing that stuff. Other contractor quotes with cheap home depot stuff, then lets you pay more. It is a rental
Jill says:
September 7, 2012 at 10:43 am
JJ: How big is the bathroom, and what is getting tiled? It seems crazy to me, but then I am about to pay $6500 for a guy who is going to remove an old vanity and toilet, demo the existing tile floor and install new subfloor and tile, take out an old medicine cabinet, patch the wall, hang a new cabinet, move an electrical box for a new light fixture, demo and replace the ceiling, replace a pipe from the upstairs tub while the ceiling is open, install a new fan and run a vent through to the outside (soffit), install a new vanity and plumging, replace the oild toilet, and remove and install 6 new interior doors with trim. Again, licensed contractor using legal people with permits.
My bath is 5 x 7; how big are the ones your guy is quoting for?
Need help…..Ocean County based homebuilder of 55+ communites….does anyone have background to comment? Client asking questions….
#43 Asians likes to buy in a busy street for commercial property reason, In asia we use our house as business and our homes at the same time. And the other reason is to show off our house, that we made it. But the main reason is a house in a busy road is commercial property that can ask for more money.
JJ: read between the lines guy…..
“How big is the bathroom, and what is getting tiled?”
I heard in Brooklyn many Chinese want to live on or near 8th Avenue….also, I know in Flushing, none of the Koreans ever wanted to live on the top floors, because it was always assumed that rooves leak. So in a 20 story building, they wanted to be no higher than the 14-15th floor…..
yo says:
September 7, 2012 at 11:42 am
#43 Asians likes to buy in a busy street for commercial property reason, In asia we use our house as business and our homes at the same time. And the other reason is to show off our house, that we made it. But the main reason is a house in a busy road is commercial property that can ask for more money.
commercial property = rub and a tug
yo says:
September 7, 2012 at 11:42 am
#43 Asians likes to buy in a busy street for commercial property reason, In asia we use our house as business and our homes at the same time. And the other reason is to show off our house, that we made it. But the main reason is a house in a busy road is commercial property that can ask for more money.
Happy birthday Grim!
Here is a bathroom estimate 9ftx9ft for a rental I got done in Philla last yr
Description of work:
1. Demo bathroom tile walls and remove tub, toilet, vanity and mirror.
2. Install new sheet rock to walls.
3. Install new tub, toilet, vanity and mirror.
4. Install new tile floor.
5. Install tile tub surround.
6. Demo wall at kitchen and relocate and wiring and pipes.
7. Install ½ wall with wood top to make breakfast bar.
8. Relocate gas range.
9. Relocate radiator.
Total price for work: $7,500.00
Items 6 thru 9 were in the kitchen
Job was OK, just OK, rental quality level
I bought a 24 sqm condo in asia on the 13th floor. I change my mind,replace it to the 3rd floor. Thinking of typhoons,must be scary on a top floor wind hitting your window glass
Another quote, for the same job, a yr ago
Bathroom
– Total Renovation
Removing walls to studs, removing and replacing tub, toilet, vanity and medicine cabinet. Installing and painting drywall and minor plumbing work as needed. Includes fixtures. Total Estimate – $4500 *does not include removing and installing floor
-Quick renovation
Removing and installing toilet, tub, vanity and medicine cabinet. Minor plumbing work as needed. Repairing walls in tub area after tub removal. Prepping and painting existing plaster walls. Includes supplies except tile for tub area as this area cannot be evaluated until tub removal. Total estimate – $2800 *does not include removing and installing floor
-Floor
Demo and install. Includes supplies. Total estimate – $2500
I am going to this BOOYA………………………
Professor Luigi Zingales Presents: A Capitalism for the People
Chicago Booth Alumni Club of New York City
October 10, 2012: 6:30 PM – 8:30 PM
Luigi Zingales, Robert C. McCormack Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance and David G. Booth Faculty Fellow
Where
Andaz 5th Avenue
485 Fifth Avenue
New York, NY
Cost
$50
Price includes a copy of A Capitalism for the People: Recapturing the Lost Genius of American Prosperity.
Program
6:30 PM – 7:00 PM: Registration & Networking
7:00 PM – 8:00 PM: Presentation
8:00 PM – 8:30 PM: Question & Answer
Event Details
Join professor Luigi Zingales as he talks about his new book, A Capitalism for the People: Recapturing the Lost Genius of American Prosperity. The book and discussion will cover how in 1997, the US government lectured the East Asian governments about the dangers of crony capitalism. Fifteen years later the disease has now infected the United States. Far from being the open society it once was, where the American Dream was within everyone’s reach, America is degenerating into a corrupt form of capitalism. A Capitalism for the People is a sharp expose of what is wrong with America today and a passionate call for change.
Shiny hits 1740
[61] chi,
Envious
Actually the 13th floor was marked 14.13 brings bad luck
It’s actually a nice and useful piece of information. I’m glad that you just shared this useful info with us. Please stay us informed like this. Thank you for sharing.
The End Is Nigh (Hope and Change You Can Believe In Edition):
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-hope-poster-artist-gets-probation-151302532.html
Young Buck #7
the only way to lengthen the life of a VW / Audi is to walk.
On an unrelated note, there’s a pretty good rundown of what makes those comment spambots tick here:
http://www.kernelmag.com/features/report/3191/revealed-the-grubby-world-of-comment-spam/
Watch me here as I dodge questions about what we will actually do…because we don’t have any clue what we will do! Jeez, even Fox is pressing us now…I’m starting to get the feeling that they want my boss to lose because it will be better for their business.
http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/09/video-fox-news-host-presses-romney.html
“Mr. Chen, forgive me, you’re just not answering my questions…. don’t they [voters] deserve to know which ones are going, which ones are not, and by how much?”
“Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2012 to 09/06/2012 is 14.9%”
My Mad Loot Investment Club is at 34.9% annualized or 24% for the same time period.
The reversion to mean still awaits.
Grim (30): sure do, why?
And what do we do here to spur growth?
China to Build Roads, Subways to Spur EconomyQ
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-06/china-approves-plan-to-build-new-roads-to-boost-economy.html
MOVIE REVIEW
SERVING UP RICHARD
Running time: 106 minutes. Not rated (language, violence). At the Cinema Village, 12th Street near University Place.
Living out everyone’s worst Craigslist nightmare, car buff Richard (Ross McCall) goes to check out a vintage Mustang for sale and finds himself imprisoned in the home of older couple Everett and Glory (Jude Ciccolella and Susan Priver). With their collection of tribal masks — and the blowgun Everett uses to take him down — they appear to be way into exotic travel.
Soon it’s clear that Richard is the upcoming entree for these two suburban cannibals, unless he can find a means of escape.
Careening from gore to psychological drama to dark humor, director Henry Olek never commits to a tone. Richard’s shady Wall Street background almost suggests a 99-percenter payback fantasy (eat the rich?). But that never goes anywhere, and ultimately “Serving Up Richard” feels about as substantial as a Happy Meal (which this poor guy assuredly is not).
Happy B’Day Grim!
JJ:
Too expensive. We gutted a large bathroom with bidet (lots of marble to bust up and dispose which is heavy) to the studs. Had to cut up the cast iron bathtub to remove it. Put in a custom Schrock vanity (very wide, maybe 6 feet) since the sink wasn’t centered), removed a window and replaced another. Built in shelves, added two lights, medicine cabinet, new toilet, bath, tiles, sheetrock (fancy tiling job in shower too with glass tiles). Total cost $7,000. It helps to have good friends (thanks Mike).
I bought the vanity/toilet/bath/tiles/lights/fan myself.
Stainless steel appliance are out-of-style! Is granite next? The horror!
“Appliance makers bet on finishes that say just enough is different.
Major manufacturers are placing bets on different potential successors to the shiny, upscale appliance finish, which surprised everyone with its resilience.
It is a pivotal moment in kitchen design: While stainless steel is still the dominant look, there are clear signals it has outworn its welcome, even with no clear successor in place.”
Happy birthday, Grim! It’s a wonderful age.
Why pay for granite,It emits radon that is suppose to be bad for your health.Even if they say it could be minimal,I will not feel safe with my food in that counter.
Nomura is laying off 100’s, Deutsche is about to layoff soon after doing Asia and Europe this week, MS is cutting FI back big time and all the other big banks are like deer in headlights. I can’t see bonus money flowing into the suburbs any time soon. Layoff checks wont be used to upgrade to bigger capes.
chi (72)-
It’s certainly no Hobo with a Shotgun.
Anyone catch a good snuff movie lately?
#75 Ann: Like Hunter Green bacck in the day!!
#78 Richard: And more coming.
Oh, I so have to join. Money, you with me???
http://www.cdcfoundation.org/zombies
[82] 3b
Bwahahahaha, bring the pain. Wallow in pity, New Jersey. I am so out of here.
re: #82 3B – Yup Nasty little Feedback loop going on for the Finance Industry. Home owners continue to default in droves, no recovery in housing no recovery in Job market.
http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=DRSFRMACBS
Depressed housing is causing the Finance Industry to fail to recover which is keeping housing depressed which is causing the Finance Industry to fail to recover.
What is it all about now?
JOBs, JOBs, JOBs
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMEAN
Now is a good time to trim the dead wood. Remember, bonus pools are down this year. The stars need cash and stock to stay. You can’t increase comp pool at most places as it has already been accrued for and comp committee has voted. What you can do is clear some dead wood, take their bonus funds and give to the stares. Hire new people even if at same salary in October or November they missed cut off for 2012 bonus.
Those people have places to go. Sometime it is the best thing that can happen to them. Let them reflect why they were considered the first person voted off island. Next time they will be a better survivor or they must learn the phrase would you like fries with that.
Richard says:
September 7, 2012 at 1:49 pm
Nomura is laying off 100′s, Deutsche is about to layoff soon after doing Asia and Europe this week, MS is cutting FI back big time and all the other big banks are like deer in headlights. I can’t see bonus money flowing into the suburbs any time soon. Layoff checks wont be used to upgrade to bigger capes.
Productivity at its highest,you expect companies to hire? Govt should start building infrastures to create demand then companies will need more employees.
Ernest Money says:
September 7, 2012 at 1:50 pm
chi (72)- It’s certainly no Hobo with a Shotgun.
Flushing crew pointed me to this one……
http://www.channelapa.com/2012/09/chink-the-movie-teaser.html
My son was told at MS your safe,you dont make much
You son works at a place named after a disease.
yo says:
September 7, 2012 at 2:56 pm
My son was told at MS your safe,you dont make much
#86 JJ There are very few places to go, and they dwindle every day. If you were the playa on “the street” you claim to be you would know that.
you ARE a disease
JJ’s Realtor says:
September 7, 2012 at 3:05 pm
You son works at a place named after a disease.
3B – I remember you posting about the big layoffs to come on the street a while back. Good call. I vaguely remember JJ pooh poohing it at the time as well.
Unemployment numbers , read this.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/853391-jobs-report-favors-change
74 Stu , my pleasure.
JJ You are getting hosed on those baths, come on you are a playa.
Its not class war, its generational.
More older workers making up labor force
They want the yung’ns to fund their SS checks, but you don’t pay SS if you don’t have a job.
yo 87 you sure about that logic, so more bridges to no-ware will save the day, OK.
JJ at those prices I will send my buddy who did Lib’s place & he can stay at a four star hotel pay for all his meals, booze and still do it cheaper.
#93 Observer: If JJ was as tuned in as he claims he would have known it was coming. I don’t question his investment prowess, but he does not know what is going on on “the street”. Simple as that. That said I feel for the people affected by the layoffs.
#85 Juice: Told JJ it was coming, he of course pooh-poohed me, and it is not over.
3b did you write my link in 94 ! LOL
Ann #75: Gee… If I wait long enough to replace my 1970’s yellow formica countertops, laminate will be back in style. So, y’all, if you were replacing your countertops now, what would you get? I’ve been agonizing over kitchen flooring for years now…went from laminate to cork to plank vinyl and now I’m considering Marmoleum Click in the Van Gogh or Sahara colors.
I got my first job in Finance at Barclays Bank when I was 18. I worked during college full time and I worked during Grad School full time. Never laid off or fired. Oddly I do poorly at work in good times. When times are good folks with shiny new degrees from fancy schools do better than me. But in years like 1989, 2001-2003 and 2008/2009 I am your man. I can burp, fart, scratch a nut and bang out a project while blogging in around ten minutes that an ivy leaguer would take a week to do. Basically it is 18 years of winging it in school that prepared me.
Finest moment was after crash of 1987, 5,985 people let go out of 15 in my division, yet I stayed. Only downside never have had severance or unemployment. Upside is my 401K kicks butt compared to friends as in years like 2008-2010 was bad time to be out of market investing.
BTW I am looking forward to Joey Butterfucos new tell all book. I was dating the sister of one of the key characters in the whole fiasco. I even met Joey snakeskin boots and all several months before this news story broke. My best buddy at time was also there, my other buddy even painted his boat called Double Trouble. I am glad he can use some of my stories for money. Look for me at Jets game Sunday, I will be in my usual row one sideline seats. I hope kate upton does not bother me during big plays, I know now that sanchez is dating an older women Kate may want to date an older man but I will have my daughter with me, I hope she can resist. .
I have never been laid off
3B Buying says:
September 7, 2012 at 3:41 pm
#93 Observer: If JJ was as tuned in as he claims he would have known it was coming. I don’t question his investment prowess, but he does not know what is going on on “the street”. Simple as that. That said I feel for the people affected by the layoffs.
JJ (36)
Those prices seem absurd. I just redid 3 bathrooms, all gut renovations.
Average price for the labor and materials on the non-design elements (i.e. tile, fixtures, medicine cabinets, lighting, etc. all came out of my pocket) was $6k per bathroom. The smallest bath was closer to $5.4, master bath was just over $6. This was for solid work by a guy who doesn’t contract out anything, did it all himself and stays booked a year in advance solely based on W.O.M.
I had three bids in total, one bid was higher by about $1-2k (I guess he was looking to see what he could get away with, he came recommended but priced much higher) and another bid was lower by about $1k-2k but included tile and countertops that I could select from a location he would point me towards. I didn’t want to go cheap and be stuck with materials I didn’t like so I went middle of the road and am very pleased with the outcome.
Unless the bathroom is the kind you see in Restoration Hardware catalogs meaning big enough for 5 people to sleep in there, I think the prices you got are out of line.
#94 Mike: No, but you or I certainly could have! I am always amazed how we discuss things here months ahead of time, before any one else.
And I would also like to point out that as I have been sayng all summer long, and contrary to so many in the main stream media, who were stating the economy was improving, QE 3 is definitely coming after next weeks Fed meeting. And it is coming in September, as I said it would.
I feel too I feel like yelling mo money mo money as they walk out the door.
3B Buying says:
September 7, 2012 at 3:41 pm
#93 Observer: If JJ was as tuned in as he claims he would have known it was coming. I don’t question his investment prowess, but he does not know what is going on on “the street”. Simple as that. That said I feel for the people affected by the layoffs.
#104 Yawn!
Guy actually also quoted me to install a new rear door for hardware/trim/framing and labor approximate $2,500 and painting interior of house approximate $7,500 labor and materials ceiling/walls/trim ect.House is a 2,000 square foot house. And $2,500 does not include the door.
grim – Happy birthday and thanks! You reminded me to order something for my wife’s birthday next Friday;-)
3b 106 nice that the boys at Seeking A. caught up, we have been beating that drum for months & months.
JJ get rid of “that guy”, thinks you are a sucker on the hook.
Dont worry I am using home depot mexicans but I needed his quote as a starting point and a number to give to bank
Mikewaited says:
September 7, 2012 at 5:02 pm
JJ get rid of “that guy”, thinks you are a sucker on the hook.
JJ I will GC the job & take cruise or two if you are going to pay those prices.
Home depot Mexicans, that should work out well.
re: #106 – 3B – no QE3. QE1 and QE2 did their jobs for asset prices. Bernake can go no further to prop up the price of anyone’s house. He is done. The Gov has also tossed in the towel on Fannie and Freddie too they are staying nationalized, after December 31, Fannie Mae’s bailout will be capped at $125 billion and Freddie Mac will have a limit of $149 billion. Then the real fun begins, just wait and see.
The chart I put up in post #85 says it all $200 a billion a quarter in new defaults.
We are going to need a bigger boat.
Grim,
Have a good one. You are wise beyond your years.
This is a simplistic analysis, and the board leftists will dismiss it out of hand because of the source, but it reinforces a point I have made constantly in rebuttal to the Obamunists: That the economy improved under Clinton in spite of the tax hikes, not because of them. And this article further points out that which I remember, that the economy sputtered under Clinton at first despite favorable tailwinds.
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/09/clinton-tax-hikes-slowed-growth
While I am unwilling to go as far as Heritage and tie the Clinton boom of the late 90’s to the capital gains cut (it was a contributing factor but its too hard to distinguish which tailwind drove the ship), it does debunk the ridiculous syllogism that the Democrats continue to foist on the unsuspecting public, and one they even still try to slip past the chattering class from time to time, a point that Christine Romer and her husband (both economists and Romer worked for Obama) debunk in scholarly economics papers regularly.
Anyone have their driveway repaved? Not sealed, talking rip up the old and put in new, keeping existing Belgian Block. Aprrox. 1890 sq ft. any ideas? (and no fancy pavers at the end of the driveway as seems to be the trend around town…)
Grim, was this part of your renovation work?
The movie may have sucked, but I would have loved this scene.
http://www.facebook.com/markwahlberg?ref=stream#!/photo.php?fbid=10151228716846532&set=pb.151162256531.-2207520000.1347054051&type=1&theater
The WSJ Editorials can be interesting, but usually they twist facts so much for the sake of supporting a conservative point of view. As a result, I skim them at most just to get a sense of their point of view, and also to scope important current events. However, this particular one is really well written and possibly twists only one item…… “What he didn’t mention was his goal of protecting ObamaCare at all costs and passing one of the largest tax increases in history.” Which is factually true, but kind of neglects the issue that tax rates on individuals are low and further full of loopholes. Regardless, the rest of it rings as spot-on…..
Wall Street Journal Editiorial
REVIEW & OUTLOOK
Transformers 2
Obama was honest when he said he wanted to remake America.
For all the spin and deception of politics, sooner or later every politician reveals his true purposes. For Barack Obama, one of those moments came when he declared shortly before the 2008 election that “We are five days away from fundamentally transforming the United States of America.” Above all else, the President who asked voters for a second term Thursday night sees himself as destined to transform America according to his own progressive dreams.
For most of 2008, Mr. Obama was able to disguise this ambition behind his gauzy rhetoric of hope and post-partisanship. The fine print of his agenda betrayed his plans to expand and entrench the entitlement state, but most voters ignored that as they chose his cool confidence over John McCain’s manic intensity amid a financial panic.
Candidate Obama was eloquent and likable. His personal story echoed of America’s history as a land of opportunity. Voters put aside any worry about his ideology and took a chance on his promise of a better tomorrow.
Four years later the shooting liberal star, as we called him then, has come down to earth. What should have been a buoyant recovery coming out of a deep recession was lackluster to start and has grown weaker. The partisanship he claimed to want to dampen has become more fierce. The middle-class incomes he sought to lift have fallen. These results aren’t bad luck or the lingering effects of a crash four years ago. They flow directly from his “transforming” purposes.
***
To our mind, two events amid hundreds stand out as defining President Obama’s first term. The first is his go-for-broke pursuit of progressive social legislation instead of focusing on economic recovery. The second is his refusal to strike a budget deal with Speaker John Boehner in 2011. Both reveal a President more bent on transforming America than addressing the needs of our time.
Mr. Obama was elected first and foremost with a mandate to fix the economy. Yet when he found himself by rare confluence of luck with 60 votes in the Senate, he put nurturing a fragile recovery secondary to the pursuit of pent-up liberal social policies.
Consider the amazing course of ObamaCare. Rather than craft a White House proposal and draw in Republicans from the start, he let Pete Stark and the most liberal House Democrats write the bill. As public opposition built and the tea party rose in 2009, he doubled down with a September speech extolling the virtues of government.
Opposition continued to build. But when Rahm Emanuel and other advisers urged him to compromise on something smaller, he still pressed ahead. Even after Scott Brown’s January 2010 victory to replace Ted Kennedy gave the GOP 41 Senators, Mr. Obama endorsed an effort to abuse Congressional procedure to ram the bill through.
The result is a monster that will transform a sixth of the U.S. economy, but at huge cost to growth, political comity and America’s long-term fiscal health. Never before has a new entitlement passed on such narrowly partisan lines. The new taxes and burdens on small business in particular have helped to slow job creation. Voters reacted by imposing historic losses on House Democrats.
After that 2010 “shellacking,” as Mr. Obama called it, he had another chance to steer a more moderate course. Believing that bipartisan cover offered a unique chance to control the deficit, House Speaker Boehner agreed to back-room talks to pursue a grand budget bargain.
The Republican put tax increases on the table that might have cost him his Speakership, even as Mr. Obama refused to consider any modifications to ObamaCare and would allow only tinkering around the edges of other entitlements. As the deadline neared for raising the national debt limit, Mr. Obama demanded $400 billion more in revenue, and Mr. Boehner had little choice but to walk away.
This episode is all the more remarkable because the deal Mr. Boehner was offering would have divided Republicans, helped Mr. Obama with independents, and probably guaranteed his re-election. Yet the President poisoned the deal for the sake of higher taxes.
***
So now Mr. Obama is seeking a second term by asking the voters to give him more time to finish the job he started. But what job is that?
The President tried to reprise the spirit of 2008 in his speech Thursday night, but the preoccupation of this week’s nominating convention has been to portray Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan and Republicans as mummies from the crypt.
The second-term agenda he offered Thursday was a diminished and vague version of what he offered in 2008: More government spending disguised as “investment,” more subsidies for green energy, more regulation for other parts of the economy. What he didn’t mention was his goal of protecting ObamaCare at all costs and passing one of the largest tax increases in history.
In recent interviews, Mr. Obama has said that if he wins he believes a chastened GOP will have no choice but to strike a grand fiscal bargain on his terms. This assumes that the same Republicans he has savaged for 18 months will want to become the tax collectors for his agenda. We support immigration reform, but his executive branch actions have poisoned that prospect too.
The more likely forecast is for more gridlock and rancor. As an unnamed adviser recently told a Journal reporter, Mr. Obama thought he could work with Republicans but “he won’t make that mistake again.”
Yet by Mr. Obama’s transforming lights, his Presidency would still be a success. Re-election guarantees the implementation of ObamaCare, which means he would join FDR and LBJ in the pantheon of progressives who expanded the reach of government to “spread the wealth.” Republicans may cavil, but over time they would have no choice but to agree to a value-added tax or some other tap on the middle class to finance a permanently larger, European-sized welfare state.
***
Were he a man of lesser ideological ambition, President Obama would now be presiding over a stronger economy and probably be cruising to re-election. He gambled instead that he could use the economic crisis as a political lever to achieve his progressive policy goals, and he now finds himself struggling to be re-elected with a campaign based almost entirely on savaging his opponents. Americans who are disappointed with Transformers 1 aren’t likely to enjoy the sequel any better.
A version of this article appeared September 7, 2012, on page A14 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Transformers 2.
I think this is why I was once a democrat. And why JJ is or will be one soon.
“A member of the Illinois delegation has sold out of a batch of pins she made that say “Sl-uts vote.”
The pins, which cost 2 for $5, reference radio host Rush Limbaugh’s attack on women’s activist Sandra Fluke (he called her a “sl-ut” for advocating that insurance plans fully cover contra-ceptives). We spotted several delegates on Thursday sporting the pins, which were made by delegate Barbara Brown.
Fluke addressed the DNC Wednesday during prime time. “I think ‘sl-ut’ is offensive, that’s why we’re trying to own it and make it ours,” said Debra Shore, an Illinois delegate from Chicago.”
and finally, because I always talk about this, the window in Canada is shut. Don’t say you weren’t warned.
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/business/investors/index.asp
250k 119
Where are you have a guy?
6000 for two 9×9 bathroom. A chinese guy did twice for me, my rental and primary residence.
Mike is your guy a licensed contractor? Searching for a contractor for a 203K purchase in Elizabeth. Recommendations welcome.
It may seem I have “a guy” for just about anything. I worked on new homes prior to the crash (wood-floors no longer) so know guys for most everything. As I am in Sussex my contacts are usually cheaper than Bergen or Morris county guys. I get no cut just figure my fellow board members save & I can help out my old work friends. Win,win.
Buck 126 yes, what do you have see if he can come down?
Hold on paving or general contractor?
Grim happy birthday!
Hey Veets how is the house coming?
mikey (127)-
I thought people only had dirt floors in Sussex.
Funny Clot!
Grim, I checked out that Grove Street place. Oh my! Paver nightmare. What were they thinking? Must be from Staten Island.
Mike, general contractor. Total gut reno of a two family house. I’m approved for 125,000 but the cheaper the better obviously. Just got the 203K Consultant report today and the guy estimated 178,000. He’s on crack if he thinks I will pay anywhere near that much.
Buck total gut that requires a deep skill set, I will reach out to someone who can handle it. Will advise grim to give you my email , I hope he is drunk as a skunk by now! Tomorrow.
Oh my. Another bank failed. We usually have 1-4 failures every non-holiday weekend but amazingly only one failure in August and this is our first one since then. Hope and change.
http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2012/pr12104.html
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After I start your Rss feed it appears to be a ton of junk, is the problem on my side?
After I start your Rss feed it appears to be a ton of junk, is the problem on my side?
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