From the WSJ:
Housing on Mend, but Full Recovery Is Far Off
Home prices during the first half of 2012 posted their strongest gains in six years, the clearest sign that more U.S. housing markets have hit bottom.
But the housing market remains far from normal. Hitting a bottom shouldn’t be confused with a full-on recovery, which looks a ways off.
Today’s rising prices have less to do with surging demand—though hard-hit markets in Arizona, California, and Florida have seen significant investor appetite for distressed homes—than with declines in the number of properties for sale.
Inventories of “existing” homes—that is, ones that haven’t just been built—are at eight-year lows. New-home inventories are lower than at any time since the U.S. census began tracking them in 1963. In some cities, there are one-third fewer homes listed for sale than a year ago.
Here’s why prices are rising: There are more buyers chasing fewer homes, and—critically—fewer distressed homes, such as foreclosures. Low inventory is one sign that housing markets may have reached a turning point because many want to buy at the bottom but few want to sell.
There are several factors behind the low inventory. Banks have slowed their pace of foreclosures. Investors have snapped up discounted properties that they can convert into rentals. Home builders, struggling for several years to compete on price with foreclosed properties, have added little in the way of new supply.
For now, price gains are concentrated at the low end of the market, where inventory declines have been most dramatic. “The market is really drying up in these seemingly distressed markets really quickly,” said Michael Sklarz, president of research firm Collateral Analytics. “They really are scratching for properties to sell.”
Low inventory is benefiting home builders, as buyers grow frustrated by bidding wars sparked by a shortage of move-in-ready housing. “People can’t find inventory that they want, so they say, ‘I’m just going to buy the house down the block that’s brand new. I don’t have to go through the whole torture,’ ” Mr. Sklarz said.
…
An important test comes later this year. In each of the past three years, prices rose in the summer but gave up all those gains and more in the winter, when sales traditionally slow. This year could be different because the supply of homes isn’t piling up.Absent a shock to the economy, housing is on the mend. But it will be a long time before it returns to normal.
From HousingWire:
Deutsche Bank says QE3 could boost housing
Deutsche Bank economists say the Federal Reserve can still significantly boost the economy with an extra round of quantitative easing. Even housing, they say, could reap some rewards.
However, it probably won’t announce such a move in the near-term. The Federal Open Market Committee meets next week to determine if additional economic stimulus is needed.
Deutsche speculates that, in the unlikely case the Fed moves forward with QE3 “it would most likely involve exchanging Treasuries for MBS in an effort to reduce mortgage spreads, as the scope for exchanging short-term Treasuries for longer-term Treasuries will be quite limited once the current Maturity Extension Program has run its course by this December.”
The likely result of such an action could provide a uptick in economic activity in many ways. QE3 would reduce the level of longer term interest rates, for example. It would not only bolster liquidity, but cement the Fed’s dedication to supporting the fiancial markets.
Even better, QE3 could “possibly boost the housing sector more directly by either purchasing MBS rather than Treasuries or twisting into MBS and out of Treasuries.”
However, there are some cons. “If the Federal Reserve became too dominant a buyer in certain segments of these markets, trading among private agents could dry up, degrading liquidity and price discovery,” they state.
Sad but True.
Good Morning New Jersey
QE3 will simply hasten our chariot ride back to the 16th century.
Smoke ’em if you got ’em.
Gordon ends his paper by listing six headwinds that he believes will, when combined with the effects of diminishing technological advancement, reduce our average yearly economic growth to a depressingly low 0.2%:
•Demographics: the population is aging, and the onetime economic benefit of women entering the workforce has already been realized
•The plateau of educational attainment: the U.S. is slipping in international measures of educational success, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to afford postsecondary education for many
•Rising income inequality is restraining growth because there are fewer people with disposable income
•Globalization is forcing low-skilled but high-paying jobs abroad
•Any effort to cope with global warming will slow the economy
•Both consumers and the government are overly indebted and paying down that debt will slow growth
All six of these headwinds are widely considered to be real threats to the American economy. And if Gordon is right about the Internet ultimately being a productivity dud, the U.S. may indeed settle into a period of the kind of slow growth that characterized much of the world before the first Industrial Revolution began in the 18th century.
Read more: http://business.time.com/2012/09/04/is-u-s-economic-growth-a-thing-of-the-past/#ixzz263s5WKYl
Barry blasts Barrons:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/barrons-cover-calls-hosuing-bottom-yet-again/
He was gracious with Zandi. Rather than call him a cheerleader
Zandi was hoping for a seat on the Obama administration.
http://www.nj.com/mercer/index.ssf/2012/09/trenton_mayor_tony_mack_arrest.html
Wonderful new for NJ .
#6 grim: From the article: “What happens to home prices when rates eventually start to rise?” Not for nothing this is the question I have been asking. How come I don’t get published? Just saying.
gary: We saw this house yesterday during our search of Midland Park. It is much too big for us. But the house is absolutely beautiful. It was totally rebuilt on original foundation in 2004. It is currently listed at 488k, sold for 580k in 2004. taxes are 10k, and house is empty. I don’t know if Midland Park is blue ribbony enough for you, but this house is certainly worth looking at.
http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1231711&dayssince=&countysearch=false
Mayor of Trenton gets busted. Chicago Public School teachers negotiate 16% pay increase over 4 years, strike anyway. It’s a great day for America.
http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/10/13778785-fbi-arrests-trenton-nj-mayor-others-in-corruption-probe?lite
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-key-issues-separating-chicago-public-schools-and-the-chicago-teachers-union-20120909,0,1256005.story
Oh man I missed the fun here. I have a lot of strong feelings about this subject. First, in order to make a living, I have accepted that this is just the way life is, no amount of energy spent complaining about it can help me. It’s just a fact of globalization. My attitude is: if you hear the Outsourcing train coming, you either get on board, get out of the way, or get run over. Grim, it sounds like you are the engineer.
Outsourcing is fine I guess, but in my own observations, much of it is also coupled with offshoring. That’s what isn’t good for the US. I work for a global financial institution, based in California, that has been an IBM/ACS/Xerox customer for a long time. The majority of the Data Center Ops stuff is outsourced to ACS/Xerox. I have to work with these guys on a regular basis, and the majority of the time, I’m talking to someone in India. My site is a bit different than the other sites though, we never had data center ops guys on site. The bigger data centers are based in California. The bigger datacenters have replaced specialized employees with drones, who can follow the exact instructions of the central office, which monitors equipment remotely (from places all over the world). So, if a server crashes etc., The guys on the ground are only involved if the have to push a power button, screw something into a rack, or plug something back in. Those jobs are a revolving door of ladder climbers or dumbells.
Also, even though our help desk guys are full time employess on our payroll, the majority of the department is in Hyderabad India now. Not outsourced but offshored. The entire call center in Florida is gone.
There have been some advantages for me though. For instance, when equipment I’m responsible for fails in the middle of the night or on a weekend, I can wake up call a guy in India, and yell at him to fix it and work on it all night so that I can go back to sleep and work on it when I get in all refreshed. When something breaks on a weekend, I can spend my time with my family instead of in the office trying to figure out what went wrong. Plus, more of my time can be spent on implementing systems that increase efficiency, rather than constantly fixing or maintaining the existing sh1t.
So don’t know if it’s “bad” or “evil” to outsource, but the fact is, it’s irrelevant and energy spent on changing that fact is wasted energy. In many ways it makes my life harder, but in some ways, it makes them a bit better.
As for the politicians, if they want to get in front of this subject, they need to rant about offshoring, not necessarily outsourcing. It does seem to be true though, that much of outsourcing is coupled with offshoring…..which is probably why it is such a big political talking point right now.
35.grim says:
September 8, 2012 at 10:10 am
One last rant, this time about outsourcing.
I’ve spent the greater part of 17 years in the outsourcing business, and have worked for some of the largest BPOs in the world. All I know is outsourcing, it’s the only business I’ve ever been involved in. I am an expert outsourcer. I can take a company’s non-core back-office processes and do them better than they can, for cheaper than they can. I can allow them to free up capital, resources, and focus to invest in their core businesses. I can help them be more flexible, I can help them improve time to market, I can help them make their customers happier than they ever have. I’ve helped failing companies, who were being dragged down by a lack of productivity, turn around and succeed. I’ve helped to repatriate jobs back to the US, from off-shore, by leveraging enough technology to improve productivity, so that it was again economical to manage that business in the States. I’ve used technology to helped to bring jobs to economically disadvantaged areas in the US, in some cases being the largest employer those towns have ever seen.
Equating outsourcing with destruction of companies, that’s just silly folks. When GE builds a turbine engine for Boeing, that’s oursourcing. When ADP cuts your payroll check, that’s oursourcing.
For anyone to blindly say outsourcing is “bad” or “evil”, all that tells me is that you’ve got no idea at all how business operates, and you probably shouldn’t be running one, let alone a whole country.
Let’s move backward on the productivity scale, maybe back to the dark ages, that’ll help us be more globally competitive.
“the onetime economic benefit of women entering the workforce has already been realized”
What exactly was that benefit?
I believe outsourcing is being used as in the same meaning of offshoring today. Politicians and reporters are caught using the term outsourcing when the whole departments job left the country
[15] JJ
It means you dont have to leave the office to find women to harass.
When I worked for a fLorida company, I remember being told we “off-shored” our call center to Alabama..I still chuckle.
follow up, I know work for a company with HQ in Alabama…and understand…
herass, herface what’s the difference
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
September 10, 2012 at 9:30 am
[15] JJ
It means you dont have to leave the office to find women to harass
I’m shocked. Shocked!
http://m.nbcnewyork.com/nbcnewyork/pm_107766/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=lVsWr7w8
Low inventory is one sign that housing markets may have reached a turning point because many want to buy at the bottom but few want to sell.
Wrong. They can’t f*cking sell. The fat f*cks took the bait 6 or 7 years ago and are on the brink of financial failure because of their stupidity. They’re pricing their POS at their “want” level. Too f*cking bad, no bailout for you.
3b,
Thanks for that listing in Midland Park. For logistics reasons (school, work), the areas that work for us are either Pascack Valley or the Wyckoff/Allendale/Fardale vicinity because of family and other support structures.
Yeah I don’t get that either. Women entering the workforce means you have increased the labor supply. Wouldn’t that cause salaries to decrease due to the increased supply? That’s not a benefit for a family with kids. Who is benefiting? The employer? Essex, is the author implying this somehow fueled growth? How?
Regarding aging population….I actually read a statistic that our working age population is actually forecast to grow in the US.
http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Jan2011/images/LisaJan2012/CHART%203.jpg
15.JJ’s Realtor says:
September 10, 2012 at 9:19 am
“the onetime economic benefit of women entering the workforce has already been realized”
What exactly was that benefit?
Well…look who also woke up on this splendid, Monday morning in a sunshiny mood!!!
Fast Eddie says:
September 10, 2012 at 10:01 am
Low inventory is one sign that housing markets may have reached a turning point because many want to buy at the bottom but few want to sell.
Wrong. They can’t f*cking sell. The fat f*cks took the bait 6 or 7 years ago and are on the brink of financial failure because of their stupidity. They’re pricing their POS at their “want” level. Too f*cking bad, no bailout for you.
#23 gary: Understand, but it is a great house.
Sunshine,
Just calling it how I see it.
#12 NJGator: Some of his FBI aliases include: Napoleon, The Little Guy, Honey Fitz…kind of sounds like a poster alias here…
Plus less home cooked meals, clean houses and well adjusted children. Plus where do these jobs come from. 10 working men with 20 children in 1952 equals ten jobs. Now it is around 35 jobs, between 20 for wife and spouse, ten nannies and lawn service, maid service, take-out, handymen, mechanics, drycleaners, etc.Back in the 1950s women stayed home, men worked blue collar jobs, no nannies and men used to mow own lawn, brought lunch to work, fixed own house and car etc. We have created two full jobs for every house and in turn flooded the country with illegals to do work formally done by the husband and wife as now couple has no time to sew, make lunch, mow own lawn or even watch own kids.
Brian says:
September 10, 2012 at 10:07 am
Yeah I don’t get that either. Women entering the workforce means you have increased the labor supply. Wouldn’t that cause salaries to decrease due to the increased supply? That’s not a benefit for a family with kids. Who is benefiting? The employer? Essex, is the author implying this somehow fueled growth? How?
24. I took it to mean that Dual Incomes are the norm now and that is that….
Don’t forget about the price of dirt these days folks.
A buildable half acre in Wyckoff is still worth around $400k per recent comps.
We are talking about no house at all, no even a crap shack. We’re talking about just the cost of the land alone.
So when you see a $500k house on a half acre, realize that you are really only paying $100k for the house, not 5.
Maybe semantics but worth noting.
10 – Have you calculated the correlation? From the Atlantic:
How Rising Interest Rates Affect Home Prices
Graph – http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/business/assets_c/2011/07/interest%20rates%20and%20home%20prices%20shiller-56453.php
Why Doesn’t the Relationship Hold?
Tom Lawler also provides a little theory on why interest rates don’t move home prices. He says that increasing mortgage rates generally do not occur in a vacuum, but often occur due to improving economic conditions and/or rising inflation expectations. Even though an increase in interest rates should logically drive down home prices, other factors in the economy that generally accompany those rising interest rates usually prevent that from occurring.
What economic factors might have an impact? Interest rates tend to rise when an economy is flourishing. In that scenario, two things are likely to be happening simultaneously: real wages and inflation will both be rising. Going back to the example from earlier, perhaps Buyer A got a raise at work or took better job and can now afford a $4,000 payment.
Another possibility was already mentioned: prices might just be sticky. Some homeowners might simply be unable to afford to sell their home at a much lower price, if their equity level is too low. In other cases, homeowners might simply not be willing to accept a big loss to their equity. After all, rising interest rates create a domino effect: if you sell your home, then you must buy a new one at a higher interest rate than you were probably paying before. If prices don’t fall broadly and in proportion to the rise in rates, then you may have to downgrade your next home.
Doesn’t look rebuilt to me, who builds a new house without an entry foyer?
3B Buying says:
September 10, 2012 at 8:53 am
I still believe that ‘if’ you have the cash you should try to buy dirt far from the cities. It could get really bad in the next few years. A safe acre or three in Pennsylvania or Ohio will be worth it’s weight one day.
Words matter.
If “outsourcing” is not the devil, call it “offshoring.”
If “outsourcing” is not the devil, call it “offshoring.”
You mean like when Chrysler aired a commercial during the Superbowl telling America that the Chrysler 300C was “Imported from Detroit”, when what they really meant was that it was made in Canada?
All the while, the Toyota Camry is the most “American” car sold in the US.
Speaking of Dirt… From the IB Times:
Is The US’s New Land Grab A Further Sign Of Housing Recovery?
Investors are rushing to buy and sell undeveloped land in the latest signs of a sustained recovery in the U.S. housing market, according to a report.
Money managers BlackRock Inc. [NYSE:BLK], hedge fund Angelo Gordon & Co. and real estate investment firm Starwood Capital are among the firms making more than a 20 percent profit on sales of land they bought on the cheap during the economic downturn, Reuters reported.
The so-called “shovel-ready” plots, most with building permissions and zoning approvals already in place, were purchased in bankruptcy sales after being seized from cash-strapped building firms and developers during the housing price crash.
However, while some investors are looking to cash in their acreage, others, such as Paulson & Co., are holding out for even greater returns.
“We are coming out of the mother of all housing cycles, and residential land is the best way to play the ultimate recovery,” Michael Barr, a Paulson & Co. portfolio manager told Reuters.
I rather be dead in NY than alive in Ohio.
Essex says:
September 10, 2012 at 10:52 am
I still believe that ‘if’ you have the cash you should try to buy dirt far from the cities. It could get really bad in the next few years. A safe acre or three in Pennsylvania or Ohio will be worth it’s weight one day.
[32] “In other cases, homeowners might simply not be willing to accept a big loss to their equity. After all, rising interest rates create a domino effect: if you sell your home, then you must buy a new one at a higher interest rate than you were probably paying before. If prices don’t fall broadly and in proportion to the rise in rates, then you may have to downgrade your next home.”
That’s pretty much assuming the outcome, no?
i.e., it argues that when rates jump housing prices won’t fall, because . . .
. . . people won’t sell their houses for less, because . . .
. . . they’ll have to buy their next house with a higher-rate loan, and . . .
. . . if housing prices don’t fall, then the higher-rate loan for the next house won’t be offset with a depreciation in housing cost.
So, to sum up the logic: rising interest rates won’t lead to housing price declines, because housing prices won’t decline.
Genius.
Here’s your Detroit recovery, folks. All hail Rattner.
“Watching Phil LeBlow providing Ford with a reacharound this morning reminded us of the total farce that is both the forest and the trees of the US auto industry. We have discussed the FUBAR channel-stuffing and the subprime-lending SNAFU but now, as Reuters reports, we see the ugly truth about GM’s little baby “the Volt is over-engineered and over-priced”. Nearly two years after the introduction of the path-breaking plug-in hybrid, GM is still losing as much as $49,000 on each Volt it builds.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gm-loses-over-49000-every-chevy-volt
Doesn’t look rebuilt to me, who builds a new house without an entry foyer?
It was a small 2br ranch previously, the older listings say it was built on the existing
foundation. They probably retained some of the exterior walls on the first level, and it looks like the garage was re-used.
I agree in the fact that the layout is suboptimal. You walk directly in to what looks like the living & dining rooms (combined), and the kitchen is set off by it’s own. I’ve had clients that would nix that just because there was no coat closet by the door.
Generally, buyers are looking for a different kind of open concept, where the family room and kitchen are tied together, typically towards the rear of the house, with access to the back yard. However, formal DR and LR, a bit less “open”, along with a foyer, are more desired. Just my 2 cents.
Please note that the design of the Volt had been completed before 2008.
“they’ll have to buy their next house with a higher-rate loan, and”
People “buying” homes don’t take out loans. So rates don’t matter. Banks buying homes to rent to own to people over 30 years higher rates matter.
In fact higher rates are much better for people buying homes. Our cash in the savings accounts earn 8 percent instead of zero.
cobbler (43)-
So it is an older piece of shit?
“Please note that the design of the Volt had been completed before 2008.”
39. Not me baby. NY is OK, but only for the rich. Unless of course you really like the idea of living in a dorm room at age 50.
Chevy Volt is more of a foreign car than the Camry.
Only 40 percent of the parts sourced in US and Canada.
Major content, 20%, is from Korea.
Grim, can’t speak for Chrysler or Toyota, but my concern is that US policies work to keep and strengthen quality jobs for Americans; today that is not the case.
The commercial was for the Chrysler 200 which is built at the Sterling Heights, Michigan plant.
36.grim says:
September 10, 2012 at 10:58 am
If “outsourcing” is not the devil, call it “offshoring.”
You mean like when Chrysler aired a commercial during the Superbowl telling America that the Chrysler 300C was “Imported from Detroit”, when what they really meant was that it was made in Canada?
The Chevy Volt costs $89,000 to build. It should be built nowhere.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/10/us-generalmotors-autos-volt-idUSBRE88904J20120910
Nearly two years after the introduction of the path-breaking plug-in hybrid, GM is still losing as much as $49,000 on each Volt it builds, according to estimates provided to Reuters by industry analysts and manufacturing experts.
Cheap Volt lease offers meant to drive more customers to Chevy showrooms this summer may have pushed that loss even higher. There are some Americans paying just $5,050 to drive around for two years in a vehicle that cost as much as $89,000 to produce.
#42 grim: I said rebuilt on original foundation.The layout may not be optimal, but at the price and for people who are only seeing krap out there when looking. I thought it was a nice house, with Ok taxes in a decent town.
#32 He talks about interest rates rising due to an inproving economy, but he makes not mention of stagflation.
#38 Assuming there is an ultimate rcovery.
We are coming out of the mother of all housing cycles, and residential land is the best way to play the ultimate recovery,” Michael Barr, a Paulson & Co. portfolio manager told Reuters.
Hey so I saw that the Iphone came up in yesterday’s thread. If that isn’t proof of a global economy, nothing is. Note on your “I” device it says “assembled in China”. It’s interesting to understand where the Iphone is “made”. In fact, pieces of it are made all over the world (yes including in the US).
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/08/apple-and-samsungs-symbiotic-relationship
Manufacturers include:
Samsung: South Korea
Infineon: Taiwan
Skyworks/TriQuint: United States
Micron: United States
ST Microelectronics: Italy
Dialog Semiconductor: Taiwan
Texas Instruments: United States
Cirrus Logic: United States
AKM Semiconductor: Japan
And there are others and of course we know all about Foxconn, the Chinese assembly plant.
http://images.apple.com/supplierresponsibility/pdf/Apple_SR_2012_Progress_Report.pdf
http://images.apple.com/supplierresponsibility/pdf/Apple_Supplier_List_2011.pdf
Admittedly, I wasn’t able to actually confirm components made by US based firms were actually made in the US. I just don’t have that much time to goof off on blogs at work. But, I’m sure if you looked hard enough, you could find it on the internet somewhere.
For the record, I still like my Blackberry.
Grim, any chance you can unmoderate post # 54 please?
Grim well Detroit is close to Hamilton, ON.
but at the price and for people who are only seeing krap out there when looking. I thought it was a nice house, with Ok taxes in a decent town.
Listed at 17% under the 2004 purchase price, and it isn’t a short sale. I think it’ll move quickly. I wouldn’t be shocked if it was under contract by next weekend.
#40 Happy: And like I said no mention of stagflation. He could have wrote in his article that interest rates rise when an economy is flourshing, however they can also rise during a period of stagflation, high inflation with little to no growth in the economy. He did not.
As far as a flourshing economy is he refering to a hypothetical economy, because we are certainly not in a flourshing economy? When is the flourshing economy going to arrive? Next year? The year after? 5 years from now? Hey I am looking to buy, and I still think prices will fall, the only thing preventing them from falling further are these low rates. And even with rates low, a continued weak economy, and Europe and all the rest, there is more downside for prices. I am not changing my stance on that because my housing situation is changing.
Statler [48];
my concern is that US policies work to keep and strengthen quality jobs for Americans; today that is not the case.
Well, that sounds like protectionism, which Nom has frequently said is the ultimate endgame.
What we’ve acomplished so far is to make foreign companies (Toyota, Honda, Nissan BMW) build some of their plants here. But those manufacturing jobs don’t count to certain people because they’re not UAW. The UAW way is to drive your employer into the dirt, and have a president in your back pocket who will stiff senior bond holders to make sure you get yours in BK; and give your union as free pass on inconvenient legislation like Obamacare.
I had a conversation years ago in the mid-90’s when I was buying a new car, and my boss leaned on me to buy a UAW-made (he said “American”, but he meant UAW) car because we did business with big-3 suppliers. A) I wasn’t an outside salesman, so my ride had nothing to do with my job duties; B) I wasn’t getting a car allowance from the company, which meant that the company really didn’t have a vote in what I bought; and C) Smyrna, TN, where my Altima was made was a very “American” town.
Look at it this way, Japan and Germany have for some time looked at the US for their car manufacturing the same way we look at Bangladesh and Indonesia for our clothing manufacturing – a place where the workers come cheap. Doesn’t that make you proud? Unless were’re going to start applying tarrifs based on nationality of ownership in a corporation (a Pandora’s Box in itself), we can’t tarrif against so-called ‘foreign’ goods made within our borders.
#57 grim: Agreed. If someone can get that for 450k/460k I think it is an excellent buy. From what I could see yesterday (and I am no expert), it appears to be holding up very well in the last 8 years since the redo.
[34] Essex,
“I still believe that ‘if’ you have the cash you should try to buy dirt far from the cities. It could get really bad in the next few years. A safe acre or three in Pennsylvania or Ohio will be worth it’s weight one day.”
Don’t tell me you’ve come around to being a Nompounder???? Oh, I am thrilled. Who can I convince next? Cobbler? Yo?
Man, if I can get Fabius to buy in to the Nompound idea, I have really accomplished something.
Of course, getting Fabius into a Nompound will prove as easy as getting him into Toon black and white.
[34] essex,
Hey, I found your bio
http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/channel/doomsday-preppers/galleries/meet-the-preppers/#david-sarti-the-hillbilly-prepper-48976
Moose nissan trucks have been made in Smyrna since the 80s when I point out that to dudes in my hunting club my truck was made in the US and their Chevys in Mexico they start with well the money goes back to Japan. Rather than get into they are a publicly traded company and they could own stock. I just shake my head state they are right and walk away. 255K miles with some bumps along the way, but overall happy, and will probably be buying my 4th Nissan truck next year.
[64] pain
Never been a fan of nissan. Had a reputation for rusting out quickly. And I never see older ones on the road, which to me is a telling fact about how well a car is engineered.
Remember the “hardbody” trucks? They were everywhere yet a few years later, none to be seen. By contrast, the Ford Escort I bought used ran and ran, and there were lots of them on the road years later.
It occurs to me that the reason this happened was because it really put Obama btwn a rock and a hard place.
http://gma.yahoo.com/schools-chicago-teachers-strike-121840785–abc-news-topstories.html
nom [61]
I am not into the subsistence agriculture and survival for the sake of survival. I’d rather stay at home, and leave the last bullet for myself if push comes to shove.
I have my nompound in the South East Asian Pacific.Always had a second choice, if things dont work out.Difference is, I dont need Ammo.I am in paradise.
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
September 10, 2012 at 1:17 pm
[34] Essex,
“I still believe that ‘if’ you have the cash you should try to buy dirt far from the cities. It could get really bad in the next few years. A safe acre or three in Pennsylvania or Ohio will be worth it’s weight one day.”
Don’t tell me you’ve come around to being a Nompounder???? Oh, I am thrilled. Who can I convince next? Cobbler? Yo?
And I never see older ones on the road, which to me is a telling fact about how well a car is engineered.
Remember the “hardbody” trucks? They were everywhere yet a few years later, none to be seen.
I’ve always been intrigued by the “migration pattern” of cars through the US. Where are new cars born into? Where do used cars migrate to in the twilight of their lives? Where do they go to die? Is there some huge migration pattern of cars from the coasts towards the interior as they age? Are cars born into major metros and then move outwards? Are they born into wealthy areas and then move towards less wealthy areas? Do certain marques tend to stick around longer than others?
I’m with you Nom, I’ve also noticed this trend of cars just disappearing, but I really can’t imagine they are all getting junked, it’s more plausible that they are moving to other areas to live out the rest of their days.
Would make for a really cool infographic too. Now if I could only get my hands on all the VIN/Registration data for the past 20 years.
(Yes, this is the kind of crap I think about.)
#61 I am going to hang with my buds at the CGPD, they have some pretty impressive fire power and several live on my block, along with a Nutley cop and Caldwell cop….
I never liked Nissan.I owned a Datsun that was a fantastic car.I know they are the same company with a different name.Not to me.
[67, 68] cobbler and yo
Both good plans.
[70] 1987
Barricade the streets and you have a nompound.
“the onetime economic benefit of women entering the workforce has already been realized”
And that was just the second wave. When families could no longer buy all the stuff they wanted on one income, they switched to two. The third wave was cheap and easy credit. When two income families could no longer buy all the stuff they wanted on two incomes they turned to cheap and easy credit. Wave 4 was the housing boom. Buy a bigger house using cheap and easy credit so you could have even more cheap and easy credit. It’s starting to look like family consolidation and down-sizing is the next wave. Three or four or five incomes (plus transfer payments) under one roof.
74 – Your end-state (three, four, or five incomes) is predicated on attempting to maintain a similar standard of living.
Might I suggest an alternative hypothesis?
An acceptance of a lower standard of living in America, and a corresponding shift back towards the one-income household, and not out of choice, but because jobs will be more scarce. However, the “rhyme” in this scenario is that the male won’t be the primary wage earner in all cases, and we see a much larger percentage of stay-at-home dads. Basically, the highest possible wage earner will be primary (and only) wage earner, regardless of sex. The existing job pool will be more evenly shared across the cross-section of wage earners, a flattening of sorts. The challenge here will be that there are no social (sexist?) mores to ensure this ‘sharing’ (a good wife stays home and tends to the children, for example) is equal. Thus the “DINK” trend will continue to exist, and will be seen as a pathway towards a higher standard of living.
Likewise, US birthrates begin to decline and match the lower birthrates seen in “established” Europe. Why? Cost. Lower standard of living in this case would mean having fewer children than someone otherwise would, in order to maintain a higher standard of living. Welcome to the baby bust generation.
From HuffPo:
U.S. Birth Rate Not High Enough To Keep Population Stable
Thanks to the weak economy, Americans are having fewer babies than the British and the French — not enough to maintain the size of the U.S. population without immigration, according to the Economist.
The U.S. birth rate now is 1.9 births per woman over her lifetime, when 2 births per woman is necessary to sustain the population on its own. Because of immigration, the population is still growing, but the birth rate has been plunging since the recession started in 2007 and fell below population-sustaining levels in 2010. It’s projected to fall to a 25-year low this year and not recover to pre-recession levels anytime soon, according to the consulting firm Demographic Intelligence.
Many young Americans are postponing starting their own families because they are struggling to stay afloat. Some 22 percent of 18- to 34-year-olds say they have delayed having a baby because of the weak economy, and another 20 percent have delayed getting married, according to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center. Roughly one in four adults in that same age range have moved back in with their parents during the economic downturn, after living on their own.
And because of their worse earnings prospects, a growing number of young Americans are getting priced out of having kids. While Americans’ incomes have failed to recover from the recession, the cost of raising a child keeps rising. It will cost a middle-income family nearly $300,000 to raise a child born today from infancy to age 17, when accounting for projected inflation, according to the Department of Agriculture.
#75 grim: Just from observation, nothing scientific, I am seeing a lot more stay at home Dads now.
[75] When I said “three or four or five incomes” I was thinking in terms of most of those incomes being adult children, and not great incomes either. You only need one full time job with benefits and all the kids have health insurance up to, what, age 46 or so now? ;-) If you drive through central PA today you’ll already see lots of “working age” men milling about and sitting on porches during the work week but nary an unemployed woman in her 20’s or 30’s. I don’t think it will be necessarily the highest possible wage earner as primary, but rather the most highly motivated wage earner.
Speaking of cars, this is a NJ forum, so I’ll throw this out there.
Back in the mid/late 90’s I bought that used Altima from an outlet owned by NationsBank (now absorbed into BoA, I know) in NJ — Linden, I think. They also had a smaller outlet in Melville, LI. They liquidated off-lease cars, mostly fleet (they had literally dozens of 4-door Accords — all in neutral colors. They primarily dealt wholesale to dealers, but they dabbled in opening up to the public, and I found them via a banner ad when internet advertising was in its infancy. I got a steal on my Altima (admittedly beige — read about the neutral color fleet stock mentioned above) there, only 18k mi — 2.5 yrs old and barely broken in considering I was averaging about 20k/yr at the time. I sold that car some 4 years later with 60k additional and got back 70% of my purchase price.
Anyway, I’d love to get another car there. A little Google-fu tells me that the place was called “Price Auto Outlet”, and was closed by BoA in 2001. Damn.
[75] grim – and I said consolidating AND downsizing, meaning a lower standard of living. I think we’re seeing the same future but I don’t think it will be a return to the 50’s with the only difference being a roll of the dice as to which spouse works.
When I traded in my 96 Hardbody, I got $2000 trade in. Not too bad considering it had 172,000 miles and needed a new distributor. I happened to see it on ebay a few weeks later, some guy bought it from the dealership for $3500 and had it shipped to Louisianna. It was probably a very good deal for him, 4×4, color matched bed cap, tow package, extended cab, etc. It had very little rust when I traded it in 2004. I made it a habbit of going to the el cheapo $2 self car wash after the winter and spraying it down with water to wash away the salt.
I easily could have kept that truck running, but I was tired of locking the hubs manually when I needed the 4wd and wanted power windows, auto trans, and 4 door. Plus it was a 4 cylinder and the 6 clinder in 2004 actually got slightly better gas mileage than my 96 4cylinder motor.
69.grim says:
September 10, 2012 at 2:08 pm
And I never see older ones on the road, which to me is a telling fact about how well a car is engineered.
Remember the “hardbody” trucks? They were everywhere yet a few years later, none to be seen.
I’ve always been intrigued by the “migration pattern” of cars through the US. Where are new cars born into? Where do used cars migrate to in the twilight of their lives? Where do they go to die? Is there some huge migration pattern of cars from the coasts towards the interior as they age? Are cars born into major metros and then move outwards? Are they born into wealthy areas and then move towards less wealthy areas? Do certain marques tend to stick around longer than others?
I’m with you Nom, I’ve also noticed this trend of cars just disappearing, but I really can’t imagine they are all getting junked, it’s more plausible that they are moving to other areas to live out the rest of their days.
Would make for a really cool infographic too. Now if I could only get my hands on all the VIN/Registration data for the past 20 years.
(Yes, this is the kind of crap I think about.)
I have (wife?) a 2001 Sienna Van..won’t die, see plenty of them on road…nice size.
WSJ article over weekend about the “End of Man”…forecasting rise of womanhood, decline of men.
Went on 11 college tours last year…my son outnumbered 2-1 by girls….
63. Cheers!
We have a whole load of wife’s family land in the hollows of Pennsylvania, South central. Great land and very livable, but I’d rather be in Hopkins County Kentucky any day. At least there would be no shortage of drinkin’ buddies and guitar player pals. That’d be heaven to me.
Battle Hymn of the Slacker Father
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443686004577633320434651682.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/soros-germanys-heading-into-depression-2012-09-10?dist=countdown
Note within the article the announced French austerity plan combined with significant taxes on that country’s wealthy.
[69] grim – That would be a great infographic. I imagine really, really cheap cars might die local deaths as it’s only a short time before a major repair exceeds the value of the car. Anybody seen any Kia Sephia’s that could be had for about $7K brand new not too many years ago? I imagine thought-to-be reliable cars like Camrys and Corollas are so plentiful throughout the country that they live long and useful lives close their original homes for the most part. My FIL bought a ’69 Jag XKE 2+2 new. That car went under water somewhere in the Pomptain area during the big flood of ’84 while it was at a garage for repair. My FIL got something like $5K from insurance. It recently resurfaced on the West Coast completely restored, as the now owner got my FILs name from Jaguar and tracked him down. My MIL sent the new owner all the original docs and the car’s original cover and they received a nice wine basket as a thank you. Apparently the car was restored to running condition and used in movies on the East Coast before being sold at auction in Atlantic City to the current owner.
I’ve always been intrigued by the “migration pattern” of cars through the US. Where are new cars born into? Where do used cars migrate to in the twilight of their lives? Where do they go to die? Is there some huge migration pattern of cars from the coasts towards the interior as they age? Are cars born into major metros and then move outwards? Are they born into wealthy areas and then move towards less wealthy areas? Do certain marques tend to stick around longer than others?
My old 1970s benz was originally owned by a fat italian guy who went to swingers clubs in manhattan, he even left old poloroids in the beck radio box warranty book which I still have, also John Gottis neice made love on hood of car which dented hood and caused my hood mat to fall off. Now if I sold the car and found out new owner did not share this info with new owner should I track them down. the car has certain historical value.
BTW Chase does off lease auto sales out of Garden City Long Island. Rather than drag off lease cars from Nassau and Suffolk all the way to Newburgh NY to auction they sell some themselves right to public for slightly more than auction price. All cars are under warranty and you can inspect. Chase is a bank so they just send iffy cars to auction so only cream is auctioned off.
74,
Sounds like a plan.
One could figure 1 family member on food stamps, one on social security, and the other on disability. Then the head of household could work 3 part time Wal Mart jobs while the wife turns tricks on the weekends.
East Rockaway Mom who sells Hot Dogs in LI for $20 bucks each with a free BJ. I always like she gets busted every few years from her hot dog cart yet she always claims her hot dogs are great and worth $20 bucks and she just happens to like giving BJs in her truck. I personally dont see the harm. A mere, $2,000 mortgage only requires giving 200 BJs a month
AG says:
September 10, 2012 at 3:52 pm
74,
Sounds like a plan.
One could figure 1 family member on food stamps, one on social security, and the other on disability. Then the head of household could work 3 part time Wal Mart jobs while the wife turns tricks on the weekends.
76,
Grim,
Lower birth rates for a domestic population is not always desirable. The Swedish, for example, will cease to exist in another 40 years if current European demographic trends persist. Maybe the better answer is to export food stamp recipients to a country that cares like Canada and in return take in hard working immigrants that are willing to assimiliate.
87 – I’d actually love to write the book. I think it would appeal to a pretty wide demographic. Pop-sci readers, car guys, geeks, etc. Plenty of material to at least cover a few hundred pages, with some fun topics intermixed (what cash for clunkers did to the annual migration). Sprinkle in a few curious anecdotes (cuba, cars that go overseas, stolen cars, vintage cars, the kind of stories you mention above). Some crazy cover art to look like some 1800s book about the migration patterns of swallows (cue JJ) to set the tone.
Somebody on here has got to have an ‘in’ with a publisher…
#92 grim: I had an old 4 door Ford years ago, bought it to a place called car cash in the west 50’s, They paid me a coupel hunderd books, did the title etc. As I was leaving the guys stuck a sticker on it that read ARG. Curious, I asked what it meant, he said it meant it was being shipped to Argentina, as there was a great demand for that car as a taxi cab there.
Aren”t cash for clunker cars in mexico?
Biggest scam I think in world is in ebay where people sell for “novelty purposes” Tile/Registration and VIN tags in a frame for around $500-$1,000 bucks. They even advertise the carfax, stuff and clean title, then put in a disclaimer not for re-registration. The car world calls it the “magic wanda” trick. Stolen Car, Flooded Car, Totaled Car, Car with high mileage, Car with swapped engine, lets say a Clone 1969 Camaro RS/SS 396 all get new titles. Buy a six cylnder rust bucket camaro. Restore it throw in a junk yard rebuild 396, buy tags on line, get new VIN to match and off to auction. Or even better stolen car. Or maybe just your porsche with 100 thousand miles two fender benders on car fax will look better as a no accident car with 55k.
My old Sable I totalled was still running perfect, could have drove it to Vegas no problem. I could have fixed it from junk yard pretty easy, mechanically and interior perfect with only 36k on odometer. Just needed a new right fender, new door, new windsheld and some frame straightened. Pretty much junk yard parts. Car history is collison with another vehicle, 3k miles, collison iwth another vehicle 6k miles, sold at auction 8k miles, sold at auction 9k miles (to me), totaled in collison with another vehicle 36K. I am sure someone got it at auction, ran fine. Drove it home, shadetree mechanic, new fender, new door, sables are so common you could even get same color, use windshield and for a few hundred frame straightened. Buy new title on ebay for $200. Guess what that car is worth 6k. As is with that triple accident title car is worth maybe $1,500. Ebay sells titles, junk yards sell used parts. If it makes sense car is back on road. No way a perfectly running sable with 36K miles was taken apart. If I look up my VIN it might no be on road, but I bet my car is still on road.
grim says:
September 10, 2012 at 4:01 pm
87 – I’d actually love to write the book. I think it would appeal to a pretty wide demographic. Pop-sci readers, car guys, geeks, etc. Plenty of material to at least cover a few hundred pages, with some fun topics intermixed (what cash for clunkers did to the annual migration). Sprinkle in a few curious anecdotes (cuba, cars that go overseas, stolen cars, vintage cars, the kind of stories you mention above). Some crazy cover art to look like some 1800s book about the migration patterns of swallows (cue JJ) to set the tone.
Somebody on here has got to have an ‘in’ with a publisher…
When my Dad had a limo business he would lease a brand new limo, usually right when model year came out. So he would buy a 1973 limo in Sept 1972, he would trade his 1973 limo in around September 1974 usually with 120K miles on it and still looking showroom mint. Only 24 months old and always washed and cleaned every day. So this guy at the limo company goes there is this guy who will pay you $500 more than the buy back price for Limo. Dad goes, what, other drives go I dont know how it works. Car is due back lets say buy back is $5,000, he goes to dealer with you, hands you a teller check for $5,000 you buy it back, sign it over to him and he hands you $500 cash. Dad says now, Mom goes what the heck, everyone else is doing it. So Dad gets his $500 a monster fortune in the day. Finally next year Dad finds out what is happening to car. Turns out they were being shipped to Russia. Dealer was selling them as demo cars only one year old with only a few thousand miles, he was rolling back odometer. No wonder russians think american cars stink, when they fell apart at 50,000 miles they actually had 150,000 miles.
3B Buying says:
September 10, 2012 at 4:12 pm
#92 grim: I had an old 4 door Ford years ago, bought it to a place called car cash in the west 50′s, They paid me a coupel hunderd books, did the title etc. As I was leaving the guys stuck a sticker on it that read ARG. Curious, I asked what it meant, he said it meant it was being shipped to Argentina, as there was a great demand for that car as a taxi cab there.
grim (76)-
Declining birthrates are a tell for a collapsing civilization.
In the US, declining birthrates also mean the death of the Social Security Ponzi.
3b (77)-
I see lots of stay-home dads, too. It’s pathetic. They all seem oddly feminized, like they’re chemically castra@ted or something.
I also get the feeling that some of these guys will never hold a job again.
jj (90)-
That’s one of the top 5 posts of 2012.
#98 Ernest: Some of them never will, or at least not in a full time capacity.
What do you call it when a woman donkey punches her husband?
Hey Nom, here’s Papa Dembiss Cisse vs Ivory Coast last weekend. Best header I’ve ever seen:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aaQCDL0fLQ&feature=player_embedded&noredirect=1
http://news.consumerreports.org/home/2012/09/improved-housing-report-may-get-buyers-off-the-fence.html
Attention all Home Buyers: Please Report to your local Real Estate Agents Office for
the deal of a lifetime.
Ignore Taxes and just buy
Is there any tire shop in NJ that will repair a tire with a nail in it for less than $30? Shouldn’t this be a $15 job, $20 at most, or am I living in 2002?
TOTAL BUTKUS!
To Recap:
1) Home Depot/Lowes/Lumber Yards not getting new construction, only fixer-upper sales
2) Shadow inventory off market in banks portfolios marked at myth, not market
3) Those selling are putting lipstick on the pig (It’s still a pig!) and marking the ASK to 2006 peak pricing
4) You’re having a lifetime joke played on you!!!!!! Funny, isn’t it? Hah!
ADD IT UP ALREADY AND CONCLUDE.
I buy my tires at costco.Any problems they fix it for free.They cant fix it,they prorate a new tire.Free tire rotation.Downside,the wait is too long.Need to leave the car for at least half a day.
3B Buying # 11
That property was bought for $590k on Dec 20, 2004.
The assessment was magically upped last year from $327.2k to $420.4k
It sits on a grand expanse of .1446 acres of arable land.
Originally built in 1951.
But here’s the kicker
On Jan 23, 2004 (just 11 months before it was resold), it was bought for $308k. Yep, it was rebuilt and the flip was for nearly a double in just 11 months. Seems like someone forgot to update town hall about the renovations – why else would the assessment stay $327,200 for all those years?!
MORE IMPORTANTLY – That’s all you get for your money?!?
Enjoy your Bergen County rat race! Fools.
ADD IT UP ALREADY AND CONCLUDE.
Jim Vavrek has experienced a lot of firsts in the last few years, and that has not been a good thing.
There was the first time he had his water shut off because he couldn’t pay the bill, and the first time he looked into applying for food stamps because he didn’t know how he could afford to eat.
And there was the first time he realized that despite insurance coverage, he still owed thousands of dollars from his late wife’s short fight with cancer – bills he could not afford to pay.
“It’s amazing how fast everything happens,” Vavrek, 50, mused recently, as he drove from his job in New Brunswick, N.J., to his home in Point Pleasant, N.J.
The commute was about to become a memory – Vavrek had just learned that he was going to lose the $13-an-hour contract job he’d landed about a year and a half ago. It had been a big financial step down from when he made $70,000, plus a bonus, several years ago, but at least it was a paycheck.
The recession and weak recovery of the past five years have forced many Americans to take a financial step backward, from the security of a middle class life to the struggles of living paycheck to paycheck or among the working poor. For many, a series of economic blows – a job loss, pay cut, divorce, health care bill or unexpected emergency – has played a role in pushing them down the economic ladder.
http://economywatch.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/31/13590963-economys-long-slump-pushing-many-down-the-ladder?lite
I like this 2 & 2 guy. Reminds me of Booyah Bob.
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/09/red_bank_lawyer_pleads_guilty.html
Presented for your viewing pleasure ,without comment .
“Low inventory is one sign that housing markets may have reached a turning point because many want to buy at the bottom but few want to sell.”
This is true, except for the part, “few want to sell.” Few can sell would be more accurate. I would LOVE to be out buying right now, but I’m stuck, can’t sell, no moving up for us. Oh well, at least I like my house, not a POS.
On buying dirt, we bought our dirt up in Pike County PA last year so I’m ready. It’s my escape hatch when Bergen County finally does me in.
250k working on it tomorrow.
Is there any tire shop in NJ that will repair a tire with a nail in it for less than $30? Shouldn’t this be a $15 job, $20 at most, or am I living in 2002?
You gotta play hardball. Its a 15 minute job and these guys desperate for work. Last time I got the Firestone guy down to $17 bucks.
$10 at Boonton tire in Newton. 3 weeks ago.
Is there any tire shop in NJ that will repair a tire with a nail in it for less than $30? Shouldn’t this be a $15 job, $20 at most, or am I living in 2002?
Was gonna reco Firestone too. Should take 15 minutes max. If nail is in sidewall, you are usually sh1t out of luck. Unless it’s a Continental Tire. Best warranty in the tire business.
Nom,
Dirty Jersey parting gift.
http://www.northjersey.com/news/crime_courts/Retired_US_attorney_wrote_the_book_on_fighting_NJ_corruption.html
84:
The land of Honey Boo Boo?
Greetings from ohare only 4 hours of delays and my trip isnt over. Nom nissans have been good for me the only reason I got rid of my hardbody was because it didnt have air. Remember last one rolled out of the factory 16 Years ago so they are going to be very hard to find but I see a couple here and there
Ben seriously buy a kit and learn how to fix it yourself it is not that hard and you will probably do a better job than the monkeys at any tire center.
Learn how to change the tread on a Bradley. Tires are for chickenshit losers.
Read this, and get back to me, bitch.
http://armyordnance.tpub.com/Od0456a/
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106 – yo
Thanks. I go to BJs but will have to check out if they have a similar deal and maybe the wait is not quite so bad.
113- Ben. Thanks, didn’t imagine a place like Firestone or STS could be cheap but maybe I should go that route. The local shop I went to was in no way desperate for business. Could not find a spot to park my car in his lot, guy stays really busy. Maybe good for my regular auto work but avoid for future quick jobs?
114 – Brian, $10! wow. don’t think i can get that low here in union county though.
115 – Libtard, thanks, will def. try Firestone place next time. Nail was not in sidewall so knew it could be fixed. I think my issue was going to a place that has a great reputation for fixing cars and they would rather spend the time fixing big jobs than small stuff like this.
118 – Pain, I was the one needing to fix the tire and my repair kit was so old, no longer good, didn’t have time to do repair on my own, needed to get kids transported etc. asap and wanted the donut off quick.
going to repost in tomorrow’s thread because I do appreciate the responses and not sure anyone works backwards to read this.
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No quick recovery is something that everyone should know and expect – but it does not mean also to wait for too long to act and get moving.
Few more years and real plus complete recovery can be actually felt.
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