From CNBC:
Housing Recovery Should Show Up in Prices
Real estate price data Tuesday should confirm that housing continued to stabilize this summer, even as the rest of the economy remained tepid.
The S&P/Case Shiller home price index is expected to be up one percent for July, when it is released at 9 a.m. ET. The FHFA home price index, released at 10 a.m., is expected to show a 0.7 percent gain in housing prices in July. The data follows on reports last week that showed housing sales were stronger than expected in August, rising 7.8 percent, and home builders sentiment jumped to a six-year high.
“It will probably be pretty strong, just because the mix is starting to work in their favor,” said Mesirow Financial chief economist Diane Swonk of the Case Shiller data. She said there were fewer foreclosures in July’s sales so the prices overall should be higher.
Housing data has pointed to a steady recovery, though at a still low rate of activity.
“We’re seeing more expensive houses in the mix, less distressed sales,” Swonk said. “Headlines have an impact on confidence.”
…
Homeowners’ equity increased over the last couple of quarters, as housing prices improved. The Fed’s latest data showed that homeowners’ equity increased to $864 billion in the second quarter, from the fourth quarter of 2011. LaVorgna said, in a note, that this improvement has lifted owners’ equity as a share of total real estate from 41.6 percent to 43.1 percent. The peak of owners’ equity share was 61.2 percent in the first quarter, 2001, and it fell to a record low of 37.2 percent in first quarter, 2009, he added.
…
Moody’s Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi said housing is one factor that affects confidence, but not the main one. “It’s jobs, it’s gasoline prices. Stock prices are important,” he said. “ I think on the margin it’s starting to help. I think people are feeling better about their home. They know at least it’s not falling in value, and that’s a big step forward.”Zandi also said the July period should show good price improvements, since the number of distressed sales was lower. However, he expects to see another wave of distressed sales coming, and that could impact prices in the winter season, when there are normally fewer sales. He said there are three million loans in foreclosure or seriously delinquent, in a pool of 49.5 million loans outstanding.
Gary Thayer, chief macro strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors, said the housing recovery is important, and especially now. “It’s coming at a good time,” he said. “In the past couple of years, there was some strength in manufacturing. The United States seemed to be starting to recover but more recently this year with the recession in Europe, we’re seeing some decline in orders. I think that’s creating some serious headwinds for our economy, and it’s good the housing market is doing its part to support economic growth.”
From HousingWire:
Shadow inventory declines by 1.2 million in 2012
Banks trimmed 1.2 million troubled mortgages or foreclosed homes out of the massive shadow inventory hanging over the housing market in the first half of 2012, according to JPMorgan Chase research.
The progress could double by the end of the year, though more than 4 million loans and properties would remain. Still, that would be down from a peak of 6 million in 2010.
The nearly 335,000 short sales completed in the first half neared the 420,000 modifications done. Another 470,000 in REO sold as well.
The $25 billion foreclosure settlement with the five largest mortgage servicers in March resulted in many more short sales than modifications.
…
By the end of the year, servicers could sell more than 950,000 foreclosed homes and another 670,000 properties through short sale. Analysts expect 800,000 modifications total for 2012.
…
“Although re-defaults and new delinquencies will continue to keep shadow inventory elevated, the rapid decline should prevent downward pressure on home prices going into 2013,” analysts said. “Combined with better existing home sales, investors have reason to be optimistic about running recovery scenarios.”
From the Huffington Post:
New Jersey Foreclosures Crisis: Chris Christie Not Using $300 Million In Federal Funds To Help Distressed Homeowners, WABC Reports
Is Chris Christie doing enough to help residents of New Jersey stave off foreclosure? A new report suggests the answer might be “no.”
In 2011, New Jersey accepted $300 million in federal money to start the Homekeeper Program, which would, as its website advertises, promote “neighborhood stability in New Jersey communities by providing financial assistance to eligible homeowners in danger of foreclosure.”
New Jersey currently suffers the second-highest foreclosure rate in the nation, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. However, WABC-TV’s Jim Hoffer reports that more than a year after the Homekeeper Program was launched, the state has doled out only $4 million, of $300 million available, to 498 families — while nearly 2,000 applicants have been denied.
During a press conference Monday in Long Branch, NJ, Hoffer clashed with Christie over the program’s inaction. The governor claimed that more funds hadn’t already been allocated because of a court-imposed moratorium on foreclosures. “Our policies were put on hold, waiting to see what the courts were ultimately going to do on foreclosures,” Christie said. “And that’s why we haven’t moved any more quickly than we have already.”
Hoffer, however, disputed the legitimacy of that claim: “The moratorium did not stop other states from helping families already facing foreclosure.”
Richard Constable III, appointed by Gov. Christie to head New Jersey’s Department of Community Affairs, acknowledged to the Philadelphia Inquirer earlier this month that the Homekeeper Program had been slow to carry out its mandate,, though he did not mention a moratorium as a reason for the sluggish rollout. “I took a hard look at this program, and I didn’t like the results that I saw,” he said.
Meanwhile, many applicants remain in limbo. Brenda Klein, who was interviewed by WABC, says that she waited a full year between submitting her request for foreclosure assistance, and receiving an unsatisfying answer from the New Jersey government–that she was no longer eligible because she’d fallen too far behind on her payments.
“We weren’t the ones that took the time to make the [back payments] build up,” she said. “If you’d taken a month, maybe two, we would have qualified.”
From WABC:
‘Homekeeper’ helping few families in New Jersey
Data Eyewitness News obtained show since 2010, Homekeeper has only approved 498 families for foreclosure assistance, but nearly 2,000 homeowners have been denied help.
In fact, less than $4-million of the $300-million has been spent ranking New Jersey last among 18 recipient states in giving out these emergency foreclosure funds.
“It’s shameful,” said State Sen. Ray Lesniak, (D) Union.
State Sen. Ray Lesniak’s constituents are among the hardest hit by New Jersey’s foreclosure crisis.
“We have over 100,000 homes in foreclosure process, 100,000 plus families that could keep their homes if we utilize this money from the federal government,” Lesniak said.
So why has New Jersey been so slow to get the money to families? Eyewitness News put the question to Governor Christie.
“Why has it taken so long, more than a year to get the money out to families?” Hoffer asked.
“Because the courts placed a moratorium on foreclosures,” Governor Christie answered.
“No the dispersing of the money. The $300 million?” Hoffer asked.
“The courts placed a moratorium on foreclosures so our policy was put on hold, waiting to see what the courts were ultimately going to do regarding foreclosure. And that’s why we haven’t moved any more quickly than we have already,” Governor Christie answered.
“The moratorium did not stop other states from helping families already facing foreclosure.” Hoffer said.
When Hoffer tried to press the Governor on this, it’s clear he had no real answer.
“Governor, this is an issue facing the state, why are you blowing it off?” Hoffer asked.
“Michael, please help me ignore him, go ahead,” Christie said.
“A lot of people facing foreclosure,” Hoffer said.
While the governor refuses to answer, families face losing their homes as the denial letters keep coming.
…
Eyewitness News tried for a month to get an interview with the head of the state agency that oversees the foreclosure funds, but they declined our requests.
Hey, Christie, where did the $296 million go? Did you take a page from the playbook of governors past?
From CNBC:
Want a Bargain on a Foreclosed Mansion? Better Jump
If you’re looking for a distressed mansion, you had better act soon.
The number of foreclosed luxury homes fell this summer to among the lowest level since the start of the housing crisis. In July, there were just over 1,628 homes priced at $1 million or more – far below the monthly peak of over 5,000 in early 2011, according to RealtyTrac.
So far, there have been 19,863 foreclosures of homes priced at $1 million or more – down 15 percent from 23,448.
“The numbers tell us that the worst may be over for foreclosures on the high end,” said RealtyTrac’s Daren Blomquist.
Brokers say the slowing foreclosures are yet another sign that the high-end housing market may be strengthening. The rising stock market this summer has made the wealthy feel wealthier, while strong demand from overseas buyers is also boosting the high end.
Still, housing economists warn that mansion foreclosures could spike again later this year. Credit is still tight, especially on the high end. Jumbo, or non-conforming loans, don’t benefit from all of the government-assistance programs aimed at improving the housing market.
Good Morning New Jersey
Just another anti Obama video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0TApEzP_Kw&feature=youtube_gdata_player
High speed rail in nj…
Amtrak train tests will break speed limits in Northeast Corridor Mike Frassinelli/The Star-Ledger 09/24/2012
TRENTON — Blink and you might miss it.
An Amtrak Acela train is set to reach record speeds of 165 mph on a test drive between Trenton and New Brunswick tonight, in preparation for high-speed rail on the Northeast Corridor.
This ride will make Great Adventure’s heart-pounding Kingda Ka roller coaster — at a mere 128 mph — look like a kiddie ride.
Western civilization continues to erode.
The FK money went where the tobacco money went.
Is Chris Christie doing enough to help residents of New Jersey stave off foreclosure? A new report suggests the answer might be “no.”
In 2011, New Jersey accepted $300 million in federal money to start the Homekeeper Program, which would, as its website advertises, promote “neighborhood stability in New Jersey communities by providing financial assistance to eligible homeowners in danger of foreclosure.”
New Jersey currently suffers the second-highest foreclosure rate in the nation, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. However, WABC-TV’s Jim Hoffer reports that more than a year after the Homekeeper Program was launched, the state has doled out only $4 million, of $300 million available, to 498 families — while nearly 2,000 applicants have been denied.
10 – winner winner chicken dinner
Still wondering about the viability of turning Camden into NJ State Zoo. Ring-fence it, insert packs of lions, tigers, wolves, etc. Offer tours in armored personnel carriers. Hilarity ensues.
That would solve NJ’s tiger crisis, no?
300 mil is a drop in the bucket, Christie could dump the whole amount in Newark and it would not make much of a dent in forclosures.
15 OK big spender.
Get your tool belts on ladies and gentlemen. From the Burlington County Times:
Assembly panel OKs bills to speed foreclosures
The foreclosure bill the committee approved would expedite foreclosure proceedings in state courts for properties that are abandoned and in disrepair by permitting lenders to apply to a judge for a speedy summary judgment.
Supporters of the legislation, including the New Jersey Builders Association, believe the measure would reduce the average time for a foreclosure to move through state courts to sheriffs’ sales from one year or longer to three or four months.
“It’s going to allow us in the courts to prioritize the cases that come in and expedite the entry of a foreclosure judgment,” said Dan Phillips of the New Jersey Administrative Office of the Courts, who estimated that the courts are dealing with a backlog of more than 1,000 foreclosure cases.
“It’s really important to get this bill through and enacted, so when these foreclosure complaints come in, we can prioritize the abandoned properties — which are quicker and not as complex procedurally — and get them out the door, so we can then focus on the owner-occupied cases,” Phillips said.
He and other supporters said the abandoned properties create blight that can have a drag on property values around them. They also can present a public safety danger and pose a direct expense to municipalities.
Speeding foreclosure proceedings is one way to get abandoned homes sold and rehabilitated. Legislators also are attempting to pass another bill that would direct the New Jersey Housing and Mortgage Finance Agency to provide loans and financing to developers and nonprofit groups to buy foreclosed properties and repair them for resale or rent as either affordable- or market-rate housing.
A previous version of the bill was vetoed by Christie, because it included the creation of a new committee to buy and create public housing out of foreclosures. Looks like they split the bills apart, so I think this one has a pretty good chance of passing now.
Japanese Finance Ministry To Japanese Bondholders: You’re Screwed!
The MoF website isn’t some blog to be ignored (at your own risk) but the official voice of the most important ministry of the most indebted country in the world, whose debt will reach 240% of GDP by the end of this fiscal year. The country borrows over 50% of every yen it spends, and it spends more every year. With no solution in sight. Other than more borrowing. Certainly not cutting the budget, which would be too painful. It wouldn’t be enough anyway. Even cutting the budget in half would leave a deficit.
And the recently passed consumption tax increase? It will raise the tax from its current 5% to 8% in 2014 and to 10% in 2015, way too little to deal with the gigantic problem, and years too late. Yet it won’t kick in unless GDP grows at least 2% per year—which has practically no chance of happening.
No, there is no longer a good solution. And everyone knows it.
About 95% of Japan’s debt is held within Japan by government-owned institutions, the Bank of Japan, banks, companies, pension funds, and directly or indirectly by individuals. Hence the question—”In case Japan becomes insolvent, what will happen to government bonds?”—is of primordial importance to just about all Japanese adults.
The question and its answer weren’t decided by some underling. Each word was carefully weighed by experts in the highly hierarchical bureaucracy of the MoF. As these words were polished and examined for every nuance, they were passed up the ladder until they landed on the desk of an official at the very top who approved not only the wording, but also whether or not that question should even be on the website. And the official answer is:
“Rest assured that the Japanese government will redeem the bonds responsibly.”
Read more: http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2012/9/24/japanese-ministry-of-finance-to-japanese-bondholders-youre-s.html#ixzz27Tx7JZp3
300 mil is a drop in the bucket
As of Q2 2012, CoreLogic says 77k near negative equity in NJ, 343k in negative equity, and a total outstanding mortgage balance of $412 billion. Plausible to think that an average assistance amount of $10k would be effective, which would mean a total reach of 30k.
Grim #4 if they told you they would have to kill you.
Moody’s Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi said housing is one factor that affects confidence, but not the main one. “It’s jobs, it’s gasoline prices.
There are 6,600,000 fewer jobs now than four years ago and gas is currently at $3.89 per gallon on average nationally. Four years ago it was $1.89 per gallon. Any questions?
If the average outstanding balance is $220k ($412b/1.8m mortgages), we could theoretically push the equity by almost 5%. If we focus on the near negative equity group (or thereabouts), we could potentially put those 30k in a position where they could refinance into a signficantly lower rate loan, enhancing the impact of that $10k per.
For example, on a 220k outstanding loan at 5.5%, PI would be $1,250. Adding that $10k and allowing for a refi would yield: $210k outstanding at 3.75% would take that PI down to around $975, a pretty good reduction, and a savings of $3,300 a year.
Four years ago it was $1.89 per gallon. Any questions?
For about a 2 week period, otherwise it was much higher. Sounds like something out of the Republican playbook. I’m all for knocking, but that’s just cherry picking. Look at the chart, you can see the temporary sharp downward spike that put it in that range.
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Oil/Monthly_Inflation_Adj_Gasoline.jpg
Remember, it was also close (or over) $4 a gallon in 2008 too. It’s been above 2 bucks a gallon since 2005. You really need to go back 10-12 years to see it consistently in the $1.75 range.
When I worked at the bank, you sometimes see people’s checking accounts that are in the negative. They were the month to month people or the debtors or somebody who lost a job or whatever. When their paychecks came in via ACH, to an account that was overdrawn and in the negative, it just made the negative number smaller. It was an easy way to just make money vanish.
NJ is like a state with an overdrawn checking account. Sending money here is a great way to make it disappear.
Re: 23 – program rules are for the underemployed and unemployed only up to about 48k in assistance in a % 0 percent second mortgage loan.Not too many would qualify for this program.
http://www.njhomekeeper.gov/
When I saw this, I wondered to myself: Is this seller in New Jersey?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/21/hilarious-for-sale-by-owner-mixes-candor-humor_n_1904727.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003
I do yearn for the days when you could say “20 bucks regular”, and drive out with a full tank. The only way you can get that these days is to stop at every single gas station you pass.
3B [bizarre house, yesterday];
Archery slits! The must-have home feature to beat back the marauding hordes to come. Cue Ernest.
Ernest [10];
The FK money went where the tobacco money went.
Foreclosure settlement == tobacco settlement. Who did what to whom was irrelevant — it was all a smash and grab job. No one has to acknowledge, being right is its own reward.
Now to ponder which industry the government will plunder next with lawsuits. Leader at the morning line: Medical; specifically medical insurance.
Fing locusts.
$48k, 0%, non-amortizing, no payments required, forgiven at 20% a year starting at year 5? Fully forgiven at year 10.
Good god, sign me up!
moose see the last coment form yesterday that was pretty much my statement. Great we are all becoming a hive mind when it comes to housing.
#28….remember the day in 1981, filling up my car at an Exxon station on Rt 1 in Elizabeth and paying $1.31…used up 1/4 of my weeks take home pay….I figured we’d all be walking in about 2 years given the rate of increase…..
grim [24],
Fair enough but currently, gas is hovering around $4.00 per gallon. When does those shovel ready jobs kick in? Or better, when is the promise by Oblama to pay for our gas going to kick in?
I’m dating myself but I remember gas for $0.35 per gallon. And during the 73-74 oil embargo, I recall when a gas station in Boston broke the buck and it was huge news.
I was very young of course. But gas was probably around $0.80 when I started driving and spiked shortly thereafter when the second oil shock hit during the Iran crisis. The Mass governor imposed regulations on when you could fill up and that produced the gas lines, something I did not see again until 9/11/01 when I rushed out to fill the tank and every gas can I had.
Fast,
Zandi and other housing b*llsh*t artists can try to create as many positive headlines as they want. Grim can post all the positive stats that he wants. Sure, it is a less bad time to catch the falling knife..but it is not yet a good time. It is about jobd and it downright sucks. I have tried for months to get traction but well is dry. 45-50 hour with no benefits. I have 15 years in finance and IT change work. Chifi should come to my floor and see the emptiness in accounting and product control. Is it skillset? No. It is not being Indian and not living in Pune.
The end is nigh (bacon edition)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mobileweb/2012/09/24/bacon-sausage-shortage_n_1909609.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003
34. We get it. You are voting for Romney.
A 0.7% gain on the bottom is still the bottom. Prices still falling here, inventory rising. It’s a mess. Contracts falling through, one down the street, went under contract, now I see it’s back on this morning. Housing doesn’t recover in our lifetime. GenX and some boomers die in place.
36 But Grim bought a house and everything is OK now.
Bystander [36],
I drove to work this morning and it was like a Sunday morning. For the past few years, the level of traffic in commuting has been noticeably light. It’s a lot worse in the job market than what’s being reported. And for the housing, I have nothing to bid on. I’m making 3 and 4 concessions in my head trying to convince myself to bid on a house. I’m stretching beyond belief and there’s no inventory at all. I’m aching to buy something. The job market is beyond recession level right now. Feed the plebians more iShit… distract them some more.
37 –
I am still reeling from the idea that my cheese doodles may cost more due to the drought and the rising price of corn. Now you’re telling me my bacon is affected? I may just riot.
Ann that is the plan for the wife and I. I already told her not to worry when hyperinflation comes the house will be paid for, we’ll just have to steal to eat or I shoot everything that moves. Chipmunk and squirrel may become staple foods in our diets : )
Ann,
I need to take you with me on the house hunt and let you see what I’m seeing. :)
WARN Notice – September 2012
COMPANY CITY EFFECTIVE
DATE WORKFORCE
AFFECTED
WARN Notice – September 2012, COMPANY, CITY, EFFECTIVE, DATE, AFFECTED
Hoffman-La Roche (Roche) Nutley 10/30/2012 1000
According to the Saudi Arabian royalty,fair price for oil is at $68/barrel.Volatility in price of oil is due to market.No US president will be able to promise a lower price of gas unles the US govt subsidize the difference. If we are paying this much now that there is a world recession,how mush more will we pay if there was no recession? China,India and the rest of the world is hungry for oil.The promise of peak oil makes all this happen
With just your website address, plus some keywords it is possible to build endless relevant backlinks to all within your websites. Backlinks are very essential to increase search engine rank and web site traffic.
Drill baby drilll is not going to help us.All of the above is the answer.Alternative Energy is the answer.
Alternative Energy is the answer.
Solyndra?
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities increased 1.2 percent in July from a year earlier, the biggest 12-month advance since August 2010, a report from the group showed today in New York. The median forecast of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 1.05 percent gain. The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence probably increased to 63.2 in September from 60.6 in August, a separate poll showed.
HOME PRICES RISE YOY
buy now or be priced out forever..
Solyndra was a gamble.Not all companies will survive.It was unfortunate that the tax payer was invested on it.It will not be the last time.
Alaska wants a contract to build a pipeline to Asia,to transfer LNG. I wonder how much more we will be paying when Natural Gas starts trading in the world market? Asia is paying more than 6x what we are paying.
It was unfortunate that the tax payer was invested on it.
You mean like the bailout at the tax payer’s expense to appease the unions at Government Motors? I mean, General Motors?
From MarketWatch:
U.S. home prices up 0.2% in July: FHFA
U.S. house prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in July, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly house price index based on Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac mortgages. June’s gain was revised to a 0.6% gain from a previously reported 0.7% increase. Compared to July 2011, FHFA reports prices are up 3.7%.
From Reuters:
Home prices rise less than expected in July: S&P
U.S. single-family home prices rose for a sixth month in a row in July, though the improvement was not as strong as expected, a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday.
From S&P:
Home Prices Increase Again in July 2012
Data through July 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its
S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed average home prices increased by 1.5% for the 10-City Composite and by 1.6% for the 20-City Composite in July versus June 2012.
For the third consecutive month, all 20 cities and both Composites recorded positive monthly changes. It would have been a fourth had prices not fallen by 0.6% in Detroit back in April.
The 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual returns of +0.6% and +1.2% in July 2012, up from their unchanged and +0.6% annual rates posted for June 2012. Fifteen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted better annual returns in July as compared to June 2012. Dallas and Washington D.C. saw no change in their annual rates; and Cleveland, Detroit and New York saw their rates worsen in July, with respective returns of +0.4%, +6.2% and -2.6%. After nine consecutive months of double digit annual declines, Atlanta finally improved to a -9.9% annual rate in July 2012, but still the worst among the 20 cities followed by S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Tiered Indices for NY Metro:
Low Tier (Under $270k)
YOY Down 3.8%
From Trough (April 2012) – Up 6.6%
Middle Tier ($270k-$437k)
YOY Down 1.6%
From Trough (March 2012) – Up 3.5%
High Tier ($437k and up)
YOY Down 2.6%
From Trough (March 2012) – Up 4.4%
Aggregate Market
YOY Down 2.6%
From Trough (March 2012) – Up 4.6%
Who cares about refinancing. Zero percent would not matter. Short Sale I am going into to contract on. Married Man with stay at home wife bought house in 2003 with nothing down soley with his name on title and mortgage, basically overpaid, housing went down tubes, RE taxes went up and they stopped paying mortgage over two years ago. They started the short sale process in Spring, come summer husband drops dead out of blue. Wife now has zero responsibility for debt. Yep she could stay in house sure, even if they said honey here is a zero percent loan over 40 years why? She would have to pay back almost three years worth of mortgage payments, re taxes, insurance and then inherit a mortgage that is like 50K more than house is worth and she has like three years worth of back maint to catch up on as she stopped to maintain home.
Rising home values and lower rates wont help people at all who have not paid their mortgage in 2-3 years and are going short sale or bk route. It will help people who are on the fringe or honest hard working folk
grim says:
September 25, 2012 at 8:20 am
If the average outstanding balance is $220k ($412b/1.8m mortgages), we could theoretically push the equity by almost 5%. If we focus on the near negative equity group (or thereabouts), we could potentially put those 30k in a position where they could refinance into a signficantly lower rate loan, enhancing the impact of that $10k per.
For example, on a 220k outstanding loan at 5.5%, PI would be $1,250. Adding that $10k and allowing for a refi would yield: $210k outstanding at 3.75% would take that PI down to around $975, a pretty good reduction, and a savings of $3,300 a year.
Compare the price of WTI to Brent Crude. Increased production in the US is a major contributor to this difference. My understanding is that they are pulling so much oil from the Bakken formation, they cannot get it to the refinerys in the Gulf fast enough using existing pipeline infrastructure.
“Domestic oil production has grown by over 500,000 bpd year over year (nearly 10%) according to recent EIA statistics. While production in Alaska is decreasing, this is far outweighed by growing output in the lower 48 states, most notably from the Bakken formation in North Dakota. Due to a lack of pipeline capacity, much of the increased U.S. production has had trouble getting to market; this has caused WTI oil prices to lag Brent prices by nearly $20/barrel”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/883011-beware-the-coming-bear-market-in-oil
48.yo says:
September 25, 2012 at 10:01 am
Drill baby drilll is not going to help us.All of the above is the answer.Alternative Energy is the answer.
59 – No sense trying to save the damned, which is why I suggested an approach to target the borrowers at the near margin, instead of the far.
A dollar is better spent helping the person with a 102% LTV loan, that is current, to get a refi, than paying off a few dollars worth of debt on someone that is 125% LTV and delinquent.
Going from 102 to 99 means refi eligibility, going from 125 to 122 means nothing.
Any approach that doesn’t also include the a refinance into a significantly lower rate mortgage (and lengthening the term back to 30y), is going to be a waste of the few dollars we have. You need that synergism of the lower rate eligibility to make a long term impact on affordability.
In your example, a short sale is the obvious best course of action.
Grim [23];
I can’t dispute your numbers but principal forgiveness — even just to wipe out negative equity — only rewards those who made mistakes. And the bigger the mistake, the bigger the reward. If we subsidize failure we’re only going to get more failures.
Barry O speaking at the UN. The guy is a disgrace
This board is now officially populated with losers.
Yes, but given the choice of whether to use that money to cover some state worker’s pension shortfall, or towards housing, and you know which one I’ll pick.
The crooks in Trenton shouldn’t get to make that choice. The monies were specifically provided to help those who found themselves unemployed or underemployed due to the financial crisis.
Essex if you come here interested in what losers are doing, save yourself some time and look into the nearest mirror.
All this rosy housing data is just the next ledge on the way down off the cliff. It all falls apart after the election:
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/09/23/housing-and-the-three-waves-of-tax-tsunami-the-biggest-increase-in-taxes-in-american-history/
principal forgiveness — even just to wipe out negative equity — only rewards those who made mistakes. And the bigger the mistake, the bigger the reward.
“Mistake” is arguable. I can show you some good examples of folks that purchased at peak, and put down the requisite 20%. They paid their loan, and continue to pay their loan, despite having lost jobs, taken lower paying jobs, etc. They were not flippers, they were not equity dreamers, etc.
Now, they’ve got a 5.75 and they can’t refi because they are in a non-GSE loan and are a few points under their required LTV.
Honestly? Why not allow HARP to refi these guys into a 3.75 at full outstanding principal? Even that is a fantastic monthly savings. No-can-do, that isn’t an option.
Hardly a situation where I’d say they were trying to milk the system or looking for a bailout. If they can’t HARP into a lower rate loan, there isn’t any refi option that doesn’t including sourcing additional monies from elsewhere.
Hell, why not let them take the money out of their 401k, penalty free, tax free, to pay down principal to the point they could refi? I know plenty of people that would love this option if it was available.
Hell, I’d do it and kick in enough to lower equity to a point at which I could secure myself a 15 year. I’m sure JJ would call me an idiot for doing it though.
I got married, lived in a small apartment with my wife for two years, saved 20% down payment and bought a house using a traditional 30 year fixed loan. What Fking mistake did I make exactly? Was I born in the wrong year? Idiot.
62.Anon E. Moose says:
September 25, 2012 at 10:37 am
Grim [23];
I can’t dispute your numbers but principal forgiveness — even just to wipe out negative equity — only rewards those who made mistakes. And the bigger the mistake, the bigger the reward. If we subsidize failure we’re only going to get more failures.
Why not claw back some of the realtors commission and some of the home sellers gain? Why is the bank only responsible? The bank got none of the money from the purchase price.
If someone purchased at peak and made all their payments they can refinance. They just need equity in the house. They can borrow from 401k, take a margin loan, borrow from parents, take from college fund etc. If this truly is bottom of RE cycle and this truly is the once in a lifetime opportunity to refinance cheap. The homeowner should suck it up. My ex gf was underwater and refinanced her coop. To do so she took a 401k loan to use at closing, then she refinanced and after refinancing rented out unit and moved back home at age of 30 for two years. She used rent to pay off her 401K loan. There is no free ponies. A family can moved into Moms basement, rent out home for two years take rent and put it towards principal each month. When they hit the magic number refinance and move home. Life is hard. It should not be easy.
grim says:
September 25, 2012 at 10:52 am
principal forgiveness — even just to wipe out negative equity — only rewards those who made mistakes. And the bigger the mistake, the bigger the reward.
“Mistake” is arguable. I can show you some good examples of folks that purchased at peak, and put down the requisite 20%. They paid their loan, and continue to pay their loan, despite having lost jobs, taken lower paying jobs, etc. They were not flippers, they were not equity dreamers, etc.
Now, they’ve got a 5.75 and they can’t refi because they are in a non-GSE loan and are a few points under their required LTV.
Honestly? Why not allow HARP to refi these guys into a 3.75 at full outstanding principal? Even that is a fantastic monthly savings. No-can-do, that isn’t an option.
Hardly a situation where I’d say they were trying to milk the system or looking for a bailout. If they can’t HARP into a lower rate loan, there isn’t any refi option that doesn’t including sourcing additional monies from elsewhere.
Hell, why not let them take the money out of their 401k, penalty free, tax free, to pay down principal to the point they could refi? I know plenty of people that would love this option if it was available.
Oblama claiming that events in Middle East are just a bump in the road. Four Americans dead in Libya, Iran looking to incinerate Israel and the Brotherhood in control in Egypt. Just a bump in the road.
I dont know the exact statistics but refinancing through HARP and lowering the years from 30 to 15 years will get this underwater mortgages above water in 5 years for the current and can afford the extra payment..Going from 5.5% interest rate to less than 2%. I had a 5.6% interest rate refi to HARP at 3%.I owed $255,000 in 5 years I will owe $185,000 with less than $100 more in mortgage payment.That is a big built up in equity
less than 3%
Getting married was the mistake that led to the other mistakes. You should have slept with a few dozen more girls and then got married and bought your first home six months ago exactly at the bottom of home prices. .
Brian says:
September 25, 2012 at 10:58 am
I got married, lived in a small apartment with my wife for two years, saved 20% down payment and bought a house using a traditional 30 year fixed loan. What Fking mistake did I make exactly? Was I born in the wrong year? Idiot.
Funny, 3% is no longer a great rate.
yo says:
September 25, 2012 at 11:00 am
I dont know the exact statistics but refinancing through HARP and lowering the years from 30 to 15 years will get this underwater mortgages above water in 5 years for the current and can afford the extra payment..Going from 5.5% interest rate to less than 2%. I had a 5.6% interest rate refi to HARP at 3%.I owed $255,000 in 5 years I will owe $185,000 with less than $100 more in mortgage payment.That is a big built up in equity
44 Fasteddie….I see some good buys out there, but I know everything looks like sheet when you get there IRL. We actually just went on a fake house hunt this summer…our max was about 900…..everything was still carp and all frankenstein, it was just bigger. I guess you just have to remember what people were paying for it back in the day and convince yourself you are getting a bargain lol.
New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority plans to continue its aggressive borrowing with $3.1 billion in bond sales over the next three months.
And they just did one billion this week. They are calling every bond issued in last 10 years. Guess union folk will get raises a plenty in 2014 due to gift from Ben. Interest on bonds is a top three expense for MTA.
And I got a free 2nd home on that deal. I took a full equity refi on my primary and paid cash on a second home.Now I am getting all this low rates.Maybe I will qualify for a lower rate on HARP 3 .Went from 30 years to 15 years mortgage.After 5 years I will sell the 2nd home and live the country and let my 2 kids continue the $185,000 left.They will have 10 years left to pay and I will transfer the name to theirs and they are left with a home free and clear.
Thanks Chopper Ben
JJ’s B.S says:
September 25, 2012 at 11:03 am
Funny, 3% is no longer a great rate.
43 Isn’t it nice not caring anymore? I used to own 25% of this house, now I own none of it. My “landlord” is absentee, anything happens to us, I get to just walk out, give it to someone else, who cares, no money to lose. As long as the monthly costs are less than rent for the same thing, we’ll stay as long as it works for us. I’m only doing basic maintenance, that’s it. It’s rather freeing to not give a sheet anymore.
68 Good example of folks my f**cking ass. They jumped on the bandwagon because home prices do not go down and preached the word to everyone else.
Ann [77],
When I walk into “the” house and it has close to what we’re looking for, I will pull the trigger. My agent would agree! ;) I need more inventory!!
68 grim
ITA
“Honestly? Why not allow HARP to refi these guys into a 3.75 at full outstanding principal? Even that is a fantastic monthly savings. No-can-do, that isn’t an option.”
JJ’s brain lacks liquidity.
82 Fast Eddie, Yep, people can’t sell. There are ten years of homebuyers totally stuck. That’s why there is no good inventory. People are just staying. They will stay til they die or default.
That’s cool Mike. I had no Idea you’d met every single homeowner in the US who’d bought a house in 2006. That’s what qualifies you to speak about all of them with a broad brush right?
81.Mike says:
September 25, 2012 at 11:15 am
68 Good example of folks my f**cking ass. They jumped on the bandwagon because home prices do not go down and preached the word to everyone else.
Brian [70];
I got married, lived in a small apartment with my wife for two years, saved 20% down payment and bought a house using a traditional 30 year fixed loan. What Fking mistake did I make exactly? Was I born in the wrong year? Idiot.
My first kid was born in 2005. I just fishined grad school that year, was secure in my job — even just got a nice raise for finishing my degree. It would have been the perfect time for me to buy — except I saw the bubble in real time. As a result, my wife and I suffered through 5 more years of certifiable psychopause landlady living below us (I swear she had her husband’s balls in a Mason jar) and a couple bonus years of substandard rental stock housing. Just bought this summer (with requisite 20% down). You and I both made our choices. Why the F- should you get the f-ing pony?
Fasteddie, did you see 1 Deerfield in Mahwah? That’s a good price, 1.2 acres on a cul-de-sac. House is in good shape. Taxes are low too relative. That one will go, I bet for around 600.
The person who can’t afford a $1275 payment will default on the $925 payment as well. There should be little help offered to those who should not have bought in the first place. The banks know this.
re: # 70 Brian you did not get a GSE loan. Right now the interest you pay was sold to perhaps a private pension. What you are asking for is for them to take the hit, meaning Grandma’s pension gets the whack or perhaps a slice of your own 401k takes a loss. If you bring cash to the table you can refi, except you want a handout like everyone else it seems. How can you not see the problem here?
I am not making light of your situation. I understand how difficult it is, but what Jill was discussing and people in your situation are two different animals. I think she (and you) are sensitized because of these trying times and the effect on both your personal situations. I can only advocate to keep your skills sharp and vote for political candidates that will advocate for better business conditions, not ones that will pander to your fear…..
Bystander says:
September 25, 2012 at 9:17 am
Fast,
Zandi and other housing b*llsh*t artists can try to create as many positive headlines as they want. Grim can post all the positive stats that he wants. Sure, it is a less bad time to catch the falling knife..but it is not yet a good time. It is about jobd and it downright sucks. I have tried for months to get traction but well is dry. 45-50 hour with no benefits. I have 15 years in finance and IT change work. Chifi should come to my floor and see the emptiness in accounting and product control. Is it skillset? No. It is not being Indian and not living in Pune
BTW – Case was on Bloomberg thing morning sh!tting on all the numbers. He said everything sucks and do not construe it any other way…..(paraphrased)
moose I’ll do you one better – Why the f*ck should anyone get a pony.
but if I was going to get one I agree with grim as much as I would hate to empty the 401K till it puts my house near paid off. My wife and I could easily replace house payments as savings and not have a mortgage riding our rears every month. that would be the best way to fix a lot of this housing crap without putting the taxpayers on the hook. Rewards the prudent, not so much the less prudent and may actually unclog some of the housing malaise while teaching everyone a very valuable lesson.
MBS are being bought by the FED.Grandma has nothing to worry.HARP 3.0 if passed, will let non GSE’s to refi to GSE’s
Juice my loan is with a credit union. They own my loan. I’m not asking for a principal reduction, just a refi. Where’s the harm in letting someone in my situation refi at current rates? They would get more interest out of me in the long run anyway…
90.Juice Box says:
September 25, 2012 at 11:32 am
re: # 70 Brian you did not get a GSE loan. Right now the interest you pay was sold to perhaps a private pension. What you are asking for is for them to take the hit, meaning Grandma’s pension gets the whack or perhaps a slice of your own 401k takes a loss. If you bring cash to the table you can refi, except you want a handout like everyone else it seems. How can you not see the problem here?
The person who can’t afford a $1275 payment will default on the $925 payment as well. There should be little help offered to those who should not have bought in the first place. The banks know this.
I’m not talking about helping those who can’t afford the $1275, or even those that can’t afford the $925. I’m talking about helping the responsible, the employed, and the willing and able to stay.
The dems would hate me because I’m talking about helping the responsible (regardless of the socioeconomic status), the repubs would hate me because I’m not helping the rich.
Anecdotal was at Starbucks this AM waiting and overheard a prominent realtor in my town talking about lack of of good inventory in gold coast Hoboken, seems no different that the brubs people that can afford it are going to sit it out.
Brian 86 Absolutely and the only one that should be doing any forgiving is God.
Juice Box [97],
They’re stuck. No inventory because they can’t sell. They’re underwater. Most are hanging on by threads and making the payment with not much left.
I don’t get why no one else can see this Grim. Any efforts to revitalize housing seem targeted at people who financed using ninja loans or extracted equity or haven’t made a payment in years. All people who’ve shown no personal responsibilty. It’s really frustrating to watch.
Anyway, it’s a pipe dream and even if they did it, it’s too little too late. Too much time has gone by.
96.grim says:
September 25, 2012 at 11:53 am
The person who can’t afford a $1275 payment will default on the $925 payment as well. There should be little help offered to those who should not have bought in the first place. The banks know this.
I’m not talking about helping those who can’t afford the $1275, or even those that can’t afford the $925. I’m talking about helping the responsible, the employed, and the willing and able to stay.
The dems would hate me because I’m talking about helping the responsible (regardless of the socioeconomic status), the repubs would hate me because I’m not helping the rich.
Pain [93];
moose I’ll do you one better – Why the f*ck should anyone get a pony.
Too true. I used the wrong article. Should have said “a” pony. “The” pony assumes too much.
grim: Case said that the GSE should immediately be dismantled and mortgage insurance should become a natural market. He stated that mortgage rates with insurance should cost about 300 basis points higher. People may balk, but it is the only way to have a health situation in the long-run……
Case said regardless, homeowners refuse to sell at a loss. As a result, the market is constrained. Don’t be confused….from an investment standpoint (not lifestyle) it is a sucker’s rally…..
Juice Box says:
September 25, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Anecdotal was at Starbucks this AM waiting and overheard a prominent realtor in my town talking about lack of of good inventory in gold coast Hoboken, seems no different that the brubs people that can afford it are going to sit it out.
You’re probably right. Maybe I should have spent a few more years f-cking. I’m not worried though…that guy Ernest Money keeps saying that we’ll all be f-cked in a few years.
75.JJ’s B.S says:
September 25, 2012 at 11:01 am
Getting married was the mistake that led to the other mistakes. You should have slept with a few dozen more girls and then got married and bought your first home six months ago exactly at the bottom of home prices. .
They should let underwater folk with drawl from IRAs and 401Ks to put towards mortgages with no penalty. Let them spend their own money.
I hear a few of you throw around 20% downpayment like that is a big number, that is the absolute lowest amount you should put down. Most people would not even that that as a serious bid. When I bought my first place it was around December 1991 and bank I used gave great rates and did not sell the loans. They wanted 25% min down.
Bid I just put in on house that is in contract seller wants proof of funds, how much I am putting into escrow and how much I am putting down when I get mortgage.
Answer is this. Buying 400K house show proof you have 400K. Escrow put up 10%, when you get mortgage 30-50% down. Mortgages should be for tax reasons, liquidity reasons, investment property etc. But you should have the funds in the first place.
Also why keep people in homes if there is a shortage of inventory? Plenty of buyers, plenty of cash. I am also ok with selling their homes and requiring buyer to keep them on for a set amount of time as tenants. Also these people drag down the neighborhood.
I get a house I am going to renovate it get rich folk in their as tennants. Neighbors will live next to a beautiful house with a nice young rich couple with a mercedes as neighbors. Instead of person hanging on by a thread thrown one more last lifeline.
“probably”? I am incapable of being wrong.
Actually a friend once told me their are no beautiful girls in nursing homes. Eventually they all look the same, beautiful or ugly, so you might as well marry rich and ugly over pretty and poor. Soon they will be both be old hags but at least with ugly one you will be rich and so will your kids.
Brian says:
September 25, 2012 at 12:16 pm
You’re probably right. Maybe I should have spent a few more years f-cking. I’m not worried though…that guy Ernest Money keeps saying that we’ll all be f-cked in a few years.
75.JJ’s B.S says:
September 25, 2012 at 11:01 am
Getting married was the mistake that led to the other mistakes. You should have slept with a few dozen more girls and then got married and bought your first home six months ago exactly at the bottom of home prices. .
I always thought,you did not buy that house until it is paid in full.You are just renting from the bank until then.
JJ’s B.S says:
September 25, 2012 at 12:22 pm
They should let underwater folk with drawl from IRAs and 401Ks to put towards mortgages with no penalty. Let them spend their own money.
I hear a few of you throw around 20% downpayment like that is a big number, that is the absolute lowest amount you should put down. Most people would not even that that as a serious bid. When I bought my first place it was around December 1991 and bank I used gave great rates and did not sell the loans. They wanted 25% min down.
I really do need to take some personal responsibility and take things into my own hands. I was thinking I could become a mormon like romney, and marry another wife. I’ll make sure she’s rich. That would kill two birds with one stone. It solves all my money problems and I could do twice as much f-cking.
106.JJ’s B.S says:
September 25, 2012 at 12:25 pm
“probably”? I am incapable of being wrong.
Actually a friend once told me their are no beautiful girls in nursing homes. Eventually they all look the same, beautiful or ugly, so you might as well marry rich and ugly over pretty and poor. Soon they will be both be old hags but at least with ugly one you will be rich and so will your kids.
Photos of Bernanke’s childhood
http://i.imgur.com/XaiUx.gif
escape (19)-
Subprime is contained.
“Rest assured that the Japanese government will redeem the bonds responsibly.”
“I have 15 years in finance and IT change work”
Bystander….what exactly does this mean? Do you do change management in an company that uses ITIL? Is your job operational work?
I put 40% down on my house when I closed in Feb 2000 and paid it off by 2008. Place before I put down 25% in 1992 and had it paid off by December 1999.
Really 7-8 years is the most I can see having a mortgage. When you get extra cash just hit it. Pretty amazing if you have lets say a 15K mortgage you took out lets say in 2011 and you take like 20K and throw it towards the mortgage how much more goes to principal than interest on the next payments.
I am always amazed that anyone who bought a house prior to 1999 even had a mortgage. Really you paid peanuts for house, you were required to put down 20%. You cant deduct mortgage interest greater than amount of original mortgage. You have been paying down the loan for almost 13-20 years. And unless you have a bank that allows you to refinance cheap how many times can you keep paying 10K to refinance. Wouldnt you be better off just taking 10K and putting it towards principal. Finally most banks wont do a mortgage for less than 100K. Once you are at 100K or less just use a heloc to pay off. Finally, if you are in a flood zone, having a mortgage is a killer that flood insurance is huge. I would need 2k flood insurance to have a mortgage which would be greater than the mortgage interest deduction.Other plus is no escrow payments I pay my own taxes and insurance. Easier to grieve taxes and shop homeowners insurance without bank involved.
Press often forgets that everyone over 50 who never traded up or cashed out pretty much these super low rates are just a PITA> we have no debt to refinance and now munis, mbs, bonds, treasury rates are crazy low.
yo says:
September 25, 2012 at 12:35 pm
I always thought,you did not buy that house until it is paid in full.You are just renting from the bank until then.
ITIL is an imaginary state that all IT aspires to reach.
Brian says:
September 25, 2012 at 12:53 pm
“I have 15 years in finance and IT change work”
Bystander….what exactly does this mean? Do you do change management in an company that uses ITIL? Is your job operational work?
Case said that the GSE should immediately be dismantled and mortgage insurance should become a natural market. He stated that mortgage rates with insurance should cost about 300 basis points higher. People may balk, but it is the only way to have a health situation in the long-run……
Why not structure the dismantlement starting with the smaller, less critical guarantee programs? VA, USDA, HUD, and Ginnie come to mind as good places to start. After those have been made public, move on to FHA. At that point there should be some semblance of a functioning insurance market to begin to come close to swallowing Freddie and Fannie.
gary (54)-
Please. I’m still trying to digest the 49K (or whatever it is) loss per car on the Volt.
“You mean like the bailout at the tax payer’s expense to appease the unions at Government Motors? I mean, General Motors?”
It’s just a standard. It’s an attempt at organizing chaos. The more people understand it in a company and adhere to it, the better it works.
The point I was going to make was that anytime you are offered a Datacenter operational job, you should run. All that sh1t is outsourced now. Only a matter of time before somebody like Grim comes by and offer to make your company more “efficient”.
113.JJ’s B.S says:
September 25, 2012 at 12:55 pm
ITIL is an imaginary state that all IT aspires to reach.
Equinix is hiring and I heard a great job.
Brian says:
September 25, 2012 at 1:02 pm
It’s just a standard. It’s an attempt at organizing chaos. The more people understand it in a company and adhere to it, the better it works.
The point I was going to make was that anytime you are offered a Datacenter operational job, you should run. All that sh1t is outsourced now. Only a matter of time before somebody like Grim comes by and offer to make your company more “efficient”.
113.JJ’s B.S says:
September 25, 2012 at 12:55 pm
ITIL is an imaginary state that all IT aspires to reach.
109 3B Love It
re #114 – Case said functioning natural insurance and mortgage market? We will see generational Japanese style mortgages before that.
In England they are taking about borrowing against your Parents retirement to help you get onto the property ladder.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/sep/23/nick-clegg-pension-pots-property
Our country now has a massive output gap, and weak labor market that is no longer in the near term of 5 years like Bernake said it would be when he bailed out the banks.
We are MORE likely to produce a post-bubble housing market like Japan’s where home prices deflate for decades.
3B [109],
LOL! I remember the episode like it was yesterday. Spanky was trying to smash a bug with a hammer and he hit a hidden button and found the loot!! For you millenials, they…. used…. to…. have…. something…. called…. simple…. and…. inocent…. humor…. somewhere…. before…. 1980. Did…. you…. understand…. what…. I…. said? Should…. I…. text…. you?
120 Gary What about when Spanky was baby sitting? One baby was put in a bird cage and the other was glued to the steps! “Remarkable”
Mike [121],
Awesome. The kid flying down the stairs on a pillow. lol!
Algebra, this is no place for you! lol!
Only a matter of time before somebody like Grim comes by and offer to make your company more “efficient”.
We wouldn’t touch this, not our forte. We’re moving away from owning and managing our own data centers as quickly as possible.
Equinix, Savvis, Telx, AT&T are all expert operators in the space.
Realize that even the major outsourcers will outsource. Managing air conditioners, real estate, power, generators, diesel contracts? Not our forte.
Besides, with big portions of IT going virtual, why bother owning a data center? How often does anyone even need to go on premise these days? Virtualization means we can even deploy entirely new servers and networking infrastructure without having to rack physical servers and cable.
#120 Fast: one of the best!!
BTW, NJ is becoming the data center capital of the world at this point.
How do you spot a data center?
Look for the brand new million square foot building with 4 parking spots out front.
Catalonia votes on Thursday on whether or not it has the right to leave Spain. Is Franco still dead!!! Viva La Catayluna!!!
Oh Miss Crabtree, there’s something heavy on my heart! Oh Chubsy-Ubsy there’s gonna be something heavy on your nose! lol!
Gary man – Good ol’ Clifton is the epicenter of it all. Telx at 100 Delawanna and 2 Pekay opening soon. You’ve got the massive Credit Suisse data center across the road from Costco on Main Ave.
129. Gee whiz Eddie. That Private Sector job must really keep you busy!
I think people are feeling better about their home. They know at least it’s not falling in value, and that’s a big step forward.
This statement is hilarious. You’ll f*cking die in the house before it reaches that 2006 level you got suc.kered into buying.
Billions of dollars of high frequency trading dollars run straight down Delawanna Ave, nary a job in sight.
You guys are lucky. Keep building them and maybe you will find jimmy hoffa
grim says:
September 25, 2012 at 2:32 pm
BTW, NJ is becoming the data center capital of the world at this point.
How do you spot a data center?
Look for the brand new million square foot building with 4 parking spots out front.
Essex,
I’m in between seminars. Then, I’m on call until 11:00 PM tonight. That would make it a 16 hour day. Any questions?
Essex,
Oh, and I worked from 4:30 AM to 9:30 AM this past Sunday. Just in case you’re keeping score.
semenars?
Fast Eddie says:
September 25, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Essex,
I’m in between seminars. Then, I’m on call until 11:00 PM tonight. That would make it a 16 hour day. Any questions?
You guys are lucky. Keep building them and maybe you will find jimmy hoffa
The new mob wouldn’t bother to even report it, if they did find him. Trigger a stop work while an investigation takes place? Who needs the heat. Vinnie, stop yammering and throw them bones right into the mixer and get on with it.
I wouldn’t assume that people who aren’t selling are just hanging on by a thread. The hangers-on-by-a-thread are probably going into default. But there are a lot of people who would sell now if prices were higher (move up, moving on, relocates) but can’t without having to owe money or it’s just become less desirable. Dying in place, but not necessarily because they are broke.
I see the engineering job in their Secaucus location. Looks like an interesting job. I guess if you can’t beat the outsourcer’s….join ’em
117.JJ’s B.S says:
September 25, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Equinix is hiring and I heard a great job.
JJ, a refi costs about $1,500 give or take, not $10K.
Also, if you believe people buying $500,000 homes have $500,000 in the bank, and only take out a mortgage for tax benefits, I have a bridge to sell you.
You’ve seen the US savings statistics, most people have a net worth close to zero.
“I wouldn’t assume that people who aren’t selling are just hanging on by a thread.”
Take our multi-family for example. W0uld love to sell it and be done with it, but I’m finally earning on it rather than losing on it. Of course, it will probably take another ten years at the current rate of return to be break even (not counting the tax advantages) on it. That’s when I would consider selling. JJ would say,”take whatever you can get for it and plow it into equities.” But JJ might not be right one of these times. Keeping the multi is very low risk, unfortunately, for very low return (except for the tax breaks).
Did I mention the tax advantages of owning a multi?
Brian [];
I could become a mormon like romney, and marry another wife.
To do that you’d need a time machine, in order to go back in time before 1900 or so, when the Mormon church disavowed bigamy and began (if slowly) to live their married lives more or less like all the other judeo-christian faiths. Particularly, Mormons like Romney, born in 1947 and married in 1969 (to Ann Davies, born 1949 and converted to LDS in 1966), people who are decades removed from any conceivable personal experience with bigamy. “Like Romney”, huh?
Or you could endeavor to become less ignorant.
http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2011/06/21/is-the-nj-data-center-market-facing-oversupply/
Grim [127];
How do you spot a data center?
Look for the brand new million square foot building with 4 parking spots out front.
I always looked for the cooling pond with fountain out front, running all year and never iced over in the winter.
143 –
You should endeavor to remove the stick from your a$$
at least let him read that one before you moderate it grim would ya?
You would be surprised if someone just invested 5k a month in a mix of stocks and bonds for even just 5-7 years how much money it would add up to.
Most people are supposed to have 10x their age in savings in addition to your home equity. Therefore, the average 50 year old has 500K in the bank. I read it on a fidelity site so it must be true.
Statler Waldorf says:
September 25, 2012 at 3:09 pm
JJ, a refi costs about $1,500 give or take, not $10K.
Also, if you believe people buying $500,000 homes have $500,000 in the bank, and only take out a mortgage for tax benefits, I have a bridge to sell you.
You’ve seen the US savings statistics, most people have a net worth close to zero.
Good to know Ann Romney cant have sister wives. Next the church needs to treat women, minorities and gays as equals. Pretty much white Mormon men in good standing in church are going to heaven and the rest of us will burn.
Anon E. Moose says:
September 25, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Brian [];
I could become a mormon like romney, and marry another wife.
To do that you’d need a time machine, in order to go back in time before 1900 or so, when the Mormon church disavowed bigamy and began (if slowly) to live their married lives more or less like all the other judeo-christian faiths. Particularly, Mormons like Romney, born in 1947 and married in 1969 (to Ann Davies, born 1949 and converted to LDS in 1966), people who are decades removed from any conceivable personal experience with bigamy. “Like Romney”, huh?
Or you could endeavor to become less ignorant.
#139 Ann: I am looking too and not seeing a whole lot of inventory where we are looking. Expanding the search to Ramsey.
Real Estate is good for diversification and tax advantages. It is not really a good investment at all. For instance I have a NYS A rate Muni bond issued 1991 non callable that matures in the year 2031 that has a 7% coupon. Flash back to 1991 and you had 100K to invest. Which would be better investment, the muni, stock or real estate. RE would most likely be worst choice once you factor in costs, time, risk. Imagine in 1991 you bought the Muni and took the 7K each year and put it into apple stock. Downside of real estate is lack of upside. Meaning a huge bull run RE doubles, a huge bull run in a stock could get you up 1,000%. Also RE has serious concentration and liquidity risk attached. The muni pays you 7k a year, the multi family may pay you 7K, may suck money out of you, may caused you to get sued. RE also has unlimited liability attached to it. No one is suing you for one million in the muni. But you can invest 100K in RE and easily end up 400K in the hole. People particularly asians view RE as safe and bonds and stocks as risky. But oddly RE can be far far riskier.
Yo [48];
All of the above is the answer.
Well, seems like “all” just ain’t what it used to be. “All of the above” to president Solyndra means bankrupting anyone who wants to built a coal power plant, with predictable effects on the coal producers. Its not like Pennsylvania produces 5% of the country’s coal or anything. “What, me worry?” – President Obama E. Neuman.
And Solyndra isn’t a bad investment because it failed. It was a bad investment because the only reason it was made had more to do with friends of Obama and the Energy department spitching a plauable story line and a big-ticket price tag right when the administration was desperate for ‘shovel-ready’ projects to spend stimulus dollars on. Spend in haste, repent at leisure.
It suddenly occurs to me that a cement mixer might be more efficient than a wood chipper for disposing of various human parts.
#142 what are the tax advantages? Certainly not depreciation as that is all recaptured unless you do a 1031
money pigs are cheap and you could always end up just eating the pigs
#151 A 40 year bond issued in 1991 without a 10 year call provision???? I call BS. Provide the CUSIP #
Most of tax advantages involve fraud. First of all to be able to afford an investment property usually takes away the depreciation deduction. If you are rich and just a vacation home you have RE taxes and mortgage interest. Now if you rent, you cant take losses. So you are losing money on house no write off. You can have expenses, plus mortgage and taxes = rent therefore you pay no taxes.
Main attraction from what I heard is Viking stove, French Door Fridge, Lawn service at your house with receipts with rental home on it, Also cash renters. I think bottom line a lot of the profits are hidden and homes end up breaking even.
I have seen in Hamptons folks rent a single month, either July or August to same tenant each year. Then owner either pockets cash or records it as an entire summer rental. Also I see a lot near me in long beach winter tenants. I looked at a condo and winter tennant covered entire cost of house for year. Owner used it each summer for himself. Taxes looked like this 16K annual rental + 16K annual costs + break even. Therefore he gets a free summer rental valued at 20K every year.
I think if IRS was able to correctly track investment properties values would plummet. I know so many folks with illegal two families, sublets, etc. not declaring income. This will only get worse with obama care tax. My old boss had a nice house he bought in the hamptons in the 1990s he rents it to same rich trader couple every summer for July and they give him a check made out to cash. His July rent covers entire yearly cost of house. Yet he gets mortgage and re tax break. Does he record that check each year? Who knows. .
1993 House Buyer says:
September 25, 2012 at 3:59 pm
#142 what are the tax advantages? Certainly not depreciation as that is all recaptured unless you do a 1031
Brian [146];
You should endeavor to remove the stick from your a$$
You’re right. I’ll let it slide. A little harmless joke. I just hope SX, Seif and Sastry, et al. are on board with the new tone of levity. A person can get called ‘racist’ pretty easily for telling something unflattering about his O-ness, whether its a joke or not.
35 year bond. Not called yet. 7.75 coupon. That is a nice one.
NEW YORK N Y G.O. SERIAL BDS SER. 1990
07.75000% 08/15/2025
CUSIP 649660MK0
AA2
Well I have to go home and grease Weezer
Sick Puppies – tax free crazy high coupons.
TOBACCO SETTLEMENT FING CORP N J ASSET
07.00000% 06/01/2041BKD BDS SER. 2003
888808BM3
RIVERSIDE CNTY CALIFREDEV AGY TAX ALLOC
07.25000% 12/01/2040SECOND LIEN TAX ALLOC BDS INTERSTATE
769123LQ1
BUTLER CNTY PA HOSP AUTH HOSP REV HOSP
07.25000% 07/01/2039REV BDS BUTLER HEALTH SYSTEM SER.
123592CP0
NEW HAVEN CALIF UNI SCH DIST REF G.O.
12.00000% 08/01/2018BDS SER. 2002
645002TA4
TAZEWELL CNTY ILL SCH DIST NO 51 GO
09.00000% 12/01/2026SCH BDS SER. 2007
877681DR4
#159 Less than 2 million issuance size, only 5 trades in the last 4 years, and you grabbed a piece of this when?
Example #3 of naked narcissism and misplaced priorities (following Somerville beer incident and Trayvon could be my son)…..file under STFU no one asked you……can you believe the fcuking balls on this guy?
Obama Says NFL Needs to Get Regular Referees Back in Games
By Hans Nichols and Nicholas Johnston
President Barack Obama said a controversial ruling by officials at the end of last night’s National Football League game was “terrible” and shows why the league should settle a dispute with the union representing referees.
“I’ve been saying for months we’ve got to get our refs back,” President Barack Obama said as he arrived at the White House after speaking at the United Nations in New York. A labor dispute between the NFL and the union for game officials has resulted in substitutes officiating games. The calls made by the replacements have generated complaints from players, coaches and fans.
The Seattle Seahawks won last night’s game with the Green Bay Packers on a last-minute play in which a pass by the Seahawks quarterback was grabbed in the end zone by a Packers defender and the Seattle receiver reached in to take hold of the ball as both players fell to the ground.
One official ruled it a touchdown for the Seahawks, while a second standing behind the play gave the signal for a touchback because of an interception. The ruling on the field was determined to be a touchdown. A penalty before the catch against the Seahawks receiver wasn’t flagged. Seattle won the game 14- 12.
The NFL said it stood by the call.
“It’s very distressing for every American football fan,” White House press secretary Jay Carney said.
Long long time ago. Longest muni in my portfolio. Very odd. It is callable and as such never trades much above par. However, it has never got called. Since I can only sell at par I will keep it to maturity or the call. Still 7.75% tax free in this interest rate environment is great.
Munis are an odd bunch. Lots of time there are old issues that had partial calls back in periods like 1993, 2003-2005 yet issuer did not get entire issue called. There is an expense with doing a full call or partial call. Often times the old bonds with high coupons with only 10K to 490K outstanding often dont get called as cost of doing full call might be more than interest savings.
I once saw a botched full call years ago on a 40 year muni. Did a full call for 10K less than actual amount outstanding. Did not catch it till an old lady complained she was not getting check on her physical bond in her safe deposit box. Was like a 8% muni. Too expensive to run another call for the 10K bond. Municpality tried to buy bond off her for like 25% above market value. She thought it sound funny and told them to piss off. So muni sends her 800 bucks each year.
3B Buying says:
September 25, 2012 at 4:23 pm
#159 Less than 2 million issuance size, only 5 trades in the last 4 years, and you grabbed a piece of this when?
chifi this is obama politics at its finest, fire the replacement refs and hire back an equal amount of real refs and call it job creation.
Cement is people?
“file under STFU no one asked you..”
Yea they did. He was asked during an interview.
Chi – Gov Scott Walker from Wisconsin also demanded the return of the Union Refs, he is a little two faced here don’t you think?
Less than 200 NFL refs with average pay of 150k a year and they just really want to keep their pension plan, rather than shift to a 401k. I don’t blame them….
Point to me is I worked at a company, we got rid of pension plan and gave us 401K. Don’t like it quit.
Juice Box says:
September 25, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Chi – Gov Scott Walker from Wisconsin also demanded the return of the Union Refs, he is a little two faced here don’t you think?
Less than 200 NFL refs with average pay of 150k a year and they just really want to keep their pension plan, rather than shift to a 401k. I don’t blame them….
#169 Then he should not have commented.
re # 171 – JJ the union employees who scrub your toilets at work one day may go out on strike over their benefits, if you don’t like cleaning your own toilet then quit.
JJ – check out these benefits, you would think a bunch of communists run this place.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/careers/benefits.htm
Ok got it. Politicians cannot talk about sports anymore and need to say “no comment” if asked. Someone tell this guy….or every other politician thats ever been asked a softball type question.
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2012/09/25/paul-ryan-nfl-referees-botched-call-packers/70001107/1#.UGIa-bJlR6Q
I have a high tolerance for dirt. If they fired all the union folks and gave me 50% of the savings I would be a happy camper pooping in a dirty toliet.
Juice Box says:
September 25, 2012 at 4:53 pm
re # 171 – JJ the union employees who scrub your toilets at work one day may go out on strike over their benefits, if you don’t like cleaning your own toilet then quit.
None of this will matter when we’re all living in mud huts and eating boiled weeds.
I would be surprised if the majority of people had more than a few dollars left over at the end of each month, let alone $5K.
“You would be surprised if someone just invested 5k a month in a mix of stocks and bonds for even just 5-7 years how much money it would add up to.”
Mmmm
http://www.ediblewildfood.com/baked-dandelion.aspx
[90] Exactly right Juice. Anybody who holds the note on a 5.75 fixed with non-delinquent debtors owns a very nice financial instrument. Why would they want to give up that beauty of a loan? “I just want a refi” = “I want me to have more money and you to have less.” That’s not a realistic scenario or expectation. If you want to destroy your credit union’s prime performing asset just pay off the loan. If you don’t have or can’t figure out how to access the $30-$50K you need to bring to the table to refinance somewhere else and vaporize your credit union’s nice performing loan, you’re probably not sophisticated enough to do anything worthwhile with the monthly savings, either. If you refi into another 30 you just push your payoff date that much further out. Absent other capital, I would suggest you make whatever adjustments are necessary to max out your 401K and overpay your current mortgage. $600/month extra comes right off principal and makes that loan balance go down really fast.
re: # 70 Brian you did not get a GSE loan. Right now the interest you pay was sold to perhaps a private pension. What you are asking for is for them to take the hit, meaning Grandma’s pension gets the whack or perhaps a slice of your own 401k takes a loss. If you bring cash to the table you can refi, except you want a handout like everyone else it seems. How can you not see the problem here?
3B [170];
Then he should not have commented.
Some things should be beneath the presidency. Apparently not Obama, however.
Seriously, though, a narsicist is asked for his opinion and you expect him not to answer?
MBS take into account the risk of prepayment, this is by no means unexpected or unaccounted for.
Essentially, each loan in the portfolio has a call option associated with it, this is no secret, and no MBS assumes full payment till maturity.
No different from the call option on a bond, like discussed above. Nobody is crying about taking food from hungry widows or babies when bonds get called.
Given the average period of ownership in the USA is 7-10 years, if anyone securitized an mbs with the prepayment risk unaccounted for, they should probably be fired for incompetence. Likewise for the investor who thought they would get easy yield with no risk.
[125] grim – Yep. I just request a new server and it is “given” to me the next day, never have to go in there anymore. The guy who spends the most time in there is merely swapping out failed RAID drives.
Besides, with big portions of IT going virtual, why bother owning a data center? How often does anyone even need to go on premise these days? Virtualization means we can even deploy entirely new servers and networking infrastructure without having to rack physical servers and cable.
Virtual Server guys – What if you need a custom app or db server but the vendor requires a USB port for a license dongle? Where’s the USB ports on a virtual server? Here you go, Network attached USB ports:
http://www.digi.com/products/usb/anywhereusb#overview
Prepayment penalties for mortgages were created by the sausage machine specifically because of the difficulty accounting for prepayment risk. Instead of dealing with the uncertainty, they decided to just shift the risk entirely to borrowers through the creation of the penalty (greedy banksters).
Unfortunately, this wasn’t looked upon in a positive light by the consumer protection groups and state legislatures. If the banks and securitization machines couldn’t figure out how to manage prepayment risk, how the hell was the “unsophisticated” borrower supposed to do it?
Which is why prepayment penalities were either banned or curbed significantly (depending on state and loan type).
The most insidious lenders snuck prepayment clauses into notes without making borrowers aware of that fact beforehand. It was only when borrowers tried to refinance that they were faced with huge penalties. This basically cemented the prepayment penalty as being thought of as predatory in nature. In reality, they weren’t quite so bad, in fact, many “good” lenders passed on some of the savings to borrowers in the form of a lower rate if the borrower signed on for it.
Man and Moose calls me ignorant? A lot of your conclusions are based on assumptions:
” If you don’t have or can’t figure out how to access the $30-$50K you need to bring to the table to refinance somewhere else and vaporize your credit union’s nice performing loan, you’re probably not sophisticated enough to do anything worthwhile with the monthly savings, either. ”
In the last twelve years or so I’ve paid off a harley, 63 chevy Impala, three other cars, and my wife’s school loans. We prepaid them all. Sure, I could cash out my 401k, borrow the money from it or a relative or maybe thump you over the head to get the cash, but I prefer a f_cking pony. Besides, redistribution seems like the easier way to rob you.
grim (184)-
In my RTC days, no commercial lender would touch me unless I agreed to massive prepayment penalties. One of my deals, the damn thing was for 20 years.
150 3b What other towns are you looking in? Ramsey is very nice. If I could do it over, I would have bought in Mahwah (for the lower taxes) or Ridgewood (bc it’s RW).
What a ballys narcissist. Should’ve simply said “no comment”.
“Mitt Romney talked to CNN about weighty subjects such as his standing in Ohio polls and preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons. But his last words were on the topic of the day: the NFL replacement referees.”
“I’d sure like to see some experienced referees … come back out of the NFL playing fields,” Romney said.
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2012/09/25/mitt-romney-nfl-replacement-referees-packers/70001146/1#.UGJF6o1lQrI
Pete: #1 Romney is low grade garbage; so what is your point?
#2 Romney is not a sitting President
#3 Romney is not a sitting President whose former chief-of-staff just presided over a union negotiation as Mayor of Chicago. I didn’t see the Obamunist lecturing Rahm about getting those teachers back to the classroom which is 1,000,000,000x more important that any horsehsh!t sport. Hypocrite.
#4 Romney is not a sitting President who is in fcuking NYC at the UN with the all the world leaders around including the insane President of Iran. Of course, why would the Obamunist care since he is NO QUESTION an anti-semite who holds his nose having to enter the mikvah that is Hymietown….
Pete says:
September 25, 2012 at 8:05 pm
What a ballys narcissist. Should’ve simply said “no comment”.
#188 I think chgo addresed it for me.
#111 Brian,
I work in change management for CFO/finance systems – mostly dealing with strategic PNL tools and Peoplesoft general ledger. We are all SDLC or at least pretend to be. In reality, we always plan backwards from quarterly release dates and usually crash build/design phases as well as functional/user testing.
Chi,
Ironically my efforts lead to the outsourcing of accounting functions. I don’t have it so bad but I was 34 when I started at my IB. I am 40 now and there is no path. About 6 VPs lined up with more seniority (10 years +). When I joined in 2007, 3 directors were promoted from VP that year alone. Since 2008, only 3 promotions total. My group has shrunk to 35 FT from 65 in 2008. Bank continues to shrink. 3 directors have left our group in the last two months but doubt they will fill them internally, maybe one. I want out because they have been playing the ole ‘lucky to have a job line’ for two years now. Trying my best and I don’t think it is lack of skill set. My resume looks pretty good..at least I thought.
Its like you learn my mind! You appear to grasp a lot approximately this, such as you wrote the e book in it or something. I believe that you can do with a few percent to pressure the message house a little bit, however instead of that, that is great blog. A fantastic read. I will certainly be back.
187 ann: hillsdale midland park and wash twp.
OK, my friends. I need your help.
Closing costs. Why is it that I feel my pocket is being picked?
Can someone please ring in on which fees are BS and what reasonable figures would be for the costs that aren’t just a scam?
Thanks in advance.
#189 Chi
Wow, youve got issues!
ITIL is just another acronym and garbage system put together by a group to support their own existence. You can put your cert on the wall beside your SDLC, PMI PMBOK, RUP, Agile, and Six Sigma. awards.
At the end of the day, the business should define the method, not the other way round. Six Sigma, is a perfect example of teaching for the test.
191 – 90% of the IT shops I’ve worked with are yahoo cowboy coders, despite having dozens (if not hundreds) of pages of process and procedure (few actually followed, the documentation was for the auditors). And the 10% at the top were at best a CMM 2 shop (again, judged based on action, not what the reams of documentation stated). And when the rubber hit the road and deadlines got tight, even the best shops devolve back to the yahoo model.
While I generally agree with direction of the ITIL methodology, I can’t get over the fact that it feels like something the SOX consultants came up with when their consulting revenue started to drop. I’ve seen firms drop six figure sums on analysis and training, two years later? Same ol’.
196 – I didn’t read your post before posting 197, glad to see someone agrees with me.
#124 grim
“Equinix, Savvis, Telx, AT&T are all expert operators in the space.”
I sprayed the screen with that one. It reminds me of the kings quote to his racedriver son. in The Canonball Run. “I wouldn’t let you drive my camels around the Oasis!”
I think interview questions are going to start turning towards “What outsourcers have you used and what are your thoughts on them!” Its going to be a selling point on your resume.
[195] fabius,
No issues. Simply the scales falling from his eyes. He has come to realize that which some of us already do, that we are in a world of hurt, the left is going to consolidate its grip, and when they do, the hurt will be more than just theoretical.
Mayor Rizzo once famously said that a liberal was a conservative that hadn’t been mugged yet. But one must expect a mugging victim to go through some trauma. We are witnessing that.
Put another way, another well known quip goes “I used to be disgusted, now I’m just amused.” I have observed a change in Chi as of late and now that he is seeing things a bit more clearly, he is disgusted. Eventually, as he learns to accept that the new order will arrive and invest accordingly, he will be amused.
Nom 200 I have been amused so long it is no longer amusing, just wondering what the next stage is . I bet clot/meat/ Ernest has the answer.
#130 grim
My favorite datacenter is off the end of one of the EWR runways about 100yds from the fuel storage tanks.
Grim/Fab,
ITIL is fine. I agree on all points. I came from a small shop where everything was shoot from the hip and I hated it at first.
I think it manages the day to day operational stuff well. I frequently revert to the shoot from the hip model when TSHTF though.
I actually like it because the robots that adhere to it strictly consistently look stupid when I just stand up and do the work while they’re buried in paperwork.
Re: my closing costs question.
I’m being quoted about $7500 before taxes and insurance on a $315K mortgage. Seems high to me.
I’m seeking opinions. High, average, low, reasonable, unreasonable? Any help would be appreciated. Thanks.
My fab data center is Fedway
http://www.manta.com/c/mmcc4h3/fedway-associates-inc
Little Rascals remembrance for Clot:
Don’t drink the milk.
Why?
It’s spoiled.
I changed my mind when I realized that Obama was thoroughly uninterested in being President, as he basically outsourced Obamacare to Pelosi/Reid and then took a two year vacation. However, I was appalled by his complete focus and drive to be re-elected. I know he accomplished literally nothing, but now his has the unmitigated gall to utterly ignore the business of the county while he pulls out all the creatively and preparedness he last displayed on the 2008 campaign. I think what really throws people off is how well spoken he is, but in reality, I find him extremely shallow…..I know that it is a trifling thing on which to focus, but for such an “erudite” and “forward looking” man, I can’t get over the fact that he smokes…..it is just so telling in my mind.
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
September 25, 2012 at 10:03 pm
I have observed a change in Chi as of late and now that he is seeing things a bit more clearly, he is disgusted.
Favorite tweet from last night: Apparently it’s a touchdown if you catch the person that caught the ball.
204 does that include a point origination charge? Seems high without it
Bike paths, please.
http://www.northjersey.com/news/recordpolitics/Christie_rejects_plea_for_crime_aid_says_Paterson_managed_disgracefully.html
Gary,
The view from one of those Union leeches.
While this is from NY, the concepts hold true in NJ. Today I hear that my district is already ramping up for PARCC in 2015. Our pupils will be ready!
http://www.schoolleadership20.com/m/blogpost?id=1990010%3ABlogPost%3A120983&fwcc=1&fwcl=1&fwl
Re virtual
We have had to move from virtual to physical servers to get performance back. New org is otherwise all virtual. DB performance had gone from minutes in previous Co on physical to hours when my group’s apps moved ( we were outsourced as a group).