From the Record:
Housing market expected to recover quickly from Sandy
While superstorm Sandy damaged or destroyed about 70,000 homes in New Jersey, the housing market is not likely to suffer long-term effects from the storm, economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Thursday.
Typically after storms, housing markets experience a temporary dip in prices and activity, followed by a rebound fairly quickly, the economists said in a regional economic briefing.
“In neighboring communities, demand could go up for housing,” said Jaison Abel, a Fed economist. Those who lost their homes along the Jersey shore or coastal areas in Queens and Long Island “have to find housing somewhere,” he said.
And while individual homeowners have been hurt by storm damage to their homes, the number of affected homes comes to only about 2 percent of the state’s housing stock. About 300,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in New York, about 4 percent of the state’s housing stock, the Fed said.
Repairing storm damage is expected to give a boost to the troubled construction industry, Fed economists said. In fact, much of the economic activity lost during and after the storm will be offset by “rebuilding, repairing and replacing,” said Jason Bram, a Fed economist, who predicted that the region’s economy will bounce back from the storm within a matter of months.
While the economists said the regional housing market is likely to recover from Sandy, there are longer-term questions about the areas that were severely flooded. The cost of living at the shore could go up, because of higher insurance costs and stricter construction standards, the economists said. That could lower the demand for coastal properties, especially if people also conclude that large storms are becoming more common.
From Bloomberg:
Foreclosure wave averted as housing doomsayers defied
hen banks pulled back on foreclosures two years ago following a government investigation into allegations of faulty practices, market researchers, academics and Wall Street analysts said that a surge of delinquent homes would deluge the U.S. market once lenders resolved the claims and worked through backlog, driving down prices for years to come. RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of property data, warned a year ago of a “new set of incoming foreclosure waves.” Susan Wachter, professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, said in February that a logjam may be “unleashed” and destabilize the market.
In fact, the flood failed to materialize, even after the five biggest U.S. mortgage servicers reached a $25 billion settlement with federal and state regulators in February. Instead, the number of properties for sale shrank to the fewest in a decade, prices appreciated at the fastest pace since 2005, and the gradual healing of the housing market helped boost consumer confidence and the economy.
“We don’t have enough homes now to meet the needs of the market,” Paul Jacobson, a Stockton native and real estate broker for 22 years, said as he cruised the city’s northern fringe, where suburbia meets farmland. “People see a foreclosed home for sale in this area and they’re going to jump on it.”
…
Banks have stepped up foreclosure alternatives to avoid legal challenges. They’re forgiving debt, modifying payment plans and approving short sales that allow homeowners to sell for less than they owe.
…
“Many of us, myself included, feared a wave of foreclosures when the settlement came,” Wachter, professor of real estate and finance at Wharton in Philadelphia, said in a telephone interview. “I was wrong.”
Slowing the foreclosure process has allowed banks to avoid booking losses on non-performing loans, said Joshua Rosner, an analyst with Graham Fisher & Co. in New York. U.S. banks reduced their net charge-off rate on mortgages to 0.77 percent in the second quarter, the most recent available, from a high of 1.81 percent at the end of 2009, according to data Rosner compiled. That drop occurred as the rate of non-current loans declined to 9.77 percent from 10.15 percent in late 2009.
From the Street:
New York, New Jersey Foreclosure Delays Threaten Housing Rebound
A large and growing backlog of foreclosures threaten the housing recovery in New York and New Jersey, according to economists at the New York Federal Reserve.
While home prices have recovered and other measures of housing activity have stabilized, the share of mortgages in foreclosure in the two states exceed the national average.
In Northern New Jersey the share of homeowners in foreclosure rose to nearly 8% in 2012, while at the national level the rate has dropped to about 4%. In downstate New York, which includes New York City metro area, Long Island and Fairfield County, Connecticut, the rate hovered above 7%.
The increasing rate of foreclosures “creates challenges in sustaining and broadening the recovery we have in the region,” said Jaison Abel, senior economist at the New York Fed. He said downward pressure on the market is likely as these foreclosures work their way through the courts.
New York and New Jersey are among the 26 states that have adopted a judicial foreclosure process, where the bank is required to prove in court that the borrower is in default in order to foreclose.
Hey Grim….on the subject of MS win 8…Have you seen the new surface tablet yet? Someone brought me one the other day asking me to hook it up to our corporate network. Said he waited on line to buy it. It runs Win RT but the metro UI makes more sense on it.
I also talked to our engineering guys, they told me they’re wating for the new surface pro to come out….that would be a corporate device they’d use over the original surface because it’s designed more for corporate customers and runs a full version of windows 8.
Is this the reason we have no inventory? Older residents pushing off downsizing and moving to retirement properties because junior is still in the house?
From CNBC:
What Empty Nest? Weak Economy Means Living at Home
You raise them, you educate them and you expect them to go out into the world. But they keep coming back.
The recession and weak recovery appears to be keeping many adult children from getting a home of their own, and that could have implications for the housing industry’s recovery.
A Census Bureau report released Wednesday found that between 2007 and 2011 there was a steady increase in the percentage of adults living in someone else’s house – and that increase has mostly been driven by adult children moving in with mom and dad.
In 2011, Census Bureau researchers found that 17.9 percent of people 18 and older, or 41.2 million people, lived in a house in which they weren’t the head of the household or that person’s spouse or significant other. That’s up from 16 percent in 2007, before the nation went into recession.
About half of those people were adult children living with their parents, while the rest were other relatives or unrelated people such as a group of roommates.
But Suzanne Macartney, an analyst in the poverty statistics branch of the Census Bureau and a co-author of the report, said the only group that saw an increase between 2007 and 2011 were adults moving in with their parents.
New multigenerational households would be a real kick in the teeth for the doomsayers.
Not only would it result in lower inventory overall (and corresponding upward pressure on prices), primarily due to the fact that properties would remain occupied by the same “group” for longer periods of time but that these groups could potentially afford higher home prices due to multiple incomes, but also higher tax payments as the payments are distributed over a greater number of people. Also, it’s got a kind of sick irony to it. Deadbeat Graydon in Ridgewood stays with his parents till they croak, mooching off of them, and when they die, he keeps the house. Want to buy it from him? A million bucks. Ha, just kidding, he can’t move because he can’t afford to pay anything but utilities and taxes. No, but seriously, asking is a million dollars.
It runs Win RT but the metro UI makes more sense on it.
Well, that’s the whole issue right there. MetroUI was MS’s answer to Android and iOs. The problem was, nobody asked the question. Makes perfect sense on a tablet, huge buttons, home screens, full screen apps, focus on unitasking over multi window, etc. The problem is, all the things that make it great on a tablet, make it terrible on a desktop. The UIs need to be entirely different. I’d hate to bring up Apple again, but the reason that iPad sales are doing so well is that they got it right on the first shot.
Unfortunately, Microsoft can’t take a page from it’s old playbook, where they simply copy Apple’s UI again, which leads them to have to “reinvent” what iOs and Android nailed out of the box.
Remember, Apple was not first mover in this space, not for a long shot. This is essentially an extension of the old PDA space years back (remember Palm Pilot?). Funny, because back then, Microsoft’s handheld strategy was a mini-windows approach, which failed miserably (as did all of the others). iPad was such a revolution, because they nailed the UI, it was perfect.
One thing that Apple does right, and Microsoft does wrong, is developing a UI with intuitiveness being one of the main factors. You don’t need an instruction manual to start using it, it just works, you know what to do. Industrial Psych, Human Factors, HCI, call it what you want, but they do it.
Look at Metro UI, completely unintuitive and confusing. Out of the box? You’d be staring at the screen wondering what to do.
The recession and weak recovery appears to be keeping many adult children from getting a home of their own, and that could have implications for the housing industry’s recovery.
Our Fathers grew up eating oatmeal and onion sandwiches, slept on mattresses on the floor, washed with a bucket of cold water and still managed to dig their way out of it all. Nothing has changed… it’s still about who’s hungry enough to survive. Awww… the poor kids, they didn’t ask to be born.
6 –
Desktop vs Tablet? I see the two becoming one in the future. Surface Pro is one of those awkward first steps. Understand, I’m viewing things through the corporate eyeglass….I have not idea how this fits into the retail customer.
How much more useful would a tablet be if you could run all of the same apps you run on your corporate PC? I know developers and applications support teams would be much happier if they didn’t have to support and design apps for PC’s then develop seperate apps for Tablets.
I imagine people sitting at their desks, working on their computer (which is also their tablet), then undocking the tablet portion of the computer and heading to a meeting or wherever and continuing their work without skipping a beat. With MS LYNC installed, they could even continue their phone conversation or chat or video conference without any interruption.
The Phone/PC/Laptop/Tablet all become one device.
All the apps needed are designed once for one platform and work on everything.
Grim [6];
Look at Metro UI, completely unintuitive and confusing. Out of the box? You’d be staring at the screen wondering what to do.
A modern art painting in every messenger bag!
In Northern New Jersey the share of homeowners in foreclosure rose to nearly 8% in 2012, while at the national level the rate has dropped to about 4%.
You notice we’re starting to see more and more articles on the housing recovery except in places like the NJ/NY area. Hmmm…..
Tick… tick… tick… tick…
[5] Grim,
Why would “Deadbeat Graydon” hold out for a million when he could cash out for $800,000 or $600,000, still a significant chunk of change.
#5 I don’t see how growth in multigenerational housing would be bullish. It seems like the fewer homes for sale would be offset by slowing household formation so it’s a wash.
[4] grim – Rachel Louise Ensign, the WSJ reporter who wrote the main article here two days ago (“Home prices are finally starting to recover, but they’re still low enough to get a great deal.”)> is a Cornell grad, has her Mom register her for courses, and still lives home with Mom and Dad in NYC. So if an Ivy League grad with a job at the WSJ is still living at home, what are the chances that a Bergen Community college dropout is ever going to leave? Having free room and board in a blue ribbony town might be the best entitlement ever.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/07/education/edlife/07guidance-sidebar-t.html
Is this the reason we have no inventory? Older residents pushing off downsizing and moving to retirement properties because junior is still in the house?
12 –
It constricts supply
Why would “Deadbeat Graydon” hold out for a million when he could cash out for $800,000 or $600,000, still a significant chunk of change.
And what, move to Omaha? They don’t have a Riverside Square Mall in Omaha.
13 – Oh that is too funny, perhaps we should move all that back up to the main page?
Pain – Norwegian black metal fan?
“Who’d get the vote for the most outré behaviour in hard rock? Mötley Crüe? Nope. Ozzy perhaps? Forget it. These guys are mere wusses when held up against the purveyors of Norwegian black metal, a scene that has “boasted” genuine satanic worship – and real deaths. Pelle Ohlin – aka, “Dead,” leader of figureheads Mayhem – prepared for performances by inhaling from a bag containing a deceased raven, his band also known to hurl bloodied pigs’ heads at their audience. Strangely, none of this seemed to make Ohlin happy. The clinically-depressed singer committed suicide by gunshot in 1991, an act that would normally devastate a band. Not so, Mayhem. Guitarist Euronymous, on discovering Ohlin, took photos of his corpse: the remainder of the band then reportedly added some of the dead singer’s brain matter to a ragout completed with paprika and vegetables, later fashioning fragments of Ohlin’s skull into necklaces sent as ‘trophies’ to rival black-metal artists. Only then did the group decide to contact the authorities. (For Euronymous, it all came to a head two years on: he was stabbed to death on his own doorstep by rival musician Count Grishnackh.)”
You notice we’re starting to see more and more articles on the housing recovery except in places like the NJ/NY area. Hmmm…..
Just be careful making any kinds of assumptions that the rate quoted applies equally across all communities, because it doesn’t, and it is far from it.
The REO ratio for Paterson vs Wyckoff is what, 50 to 1? 100 to 1?
Just looking at the RealtyTrac stats, October 2012
Wyckoff – 1 in 5834 homes in foreclosure
…
Paterson – 1 in 771 homes in foreclosure
Irvington – 1 in 552 homes in foreclosure
Do you really thing another 40 or 50 foreclosures in Paterson is going to have any impact at all on Wyckoff prices?
Sorry to sound like a cheerleader here, but let’s be real. Looking at the Bergen Sheriff’s sale listing, I see 1 foreclosure scheduled for Wyckoff for the next 3 months. That’s right, one. Tsunami? If it’s halfway decent, I’d expect it to be sold in a matter of days.
http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2012/11/30/income-and-spending-grim-report/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+thedisciplinedinvestor%2FEBHR+%28The+Disciplined+Investor%29
A grim report
#14 And reduces demand by an equal or greater(if there are multiple adult children) amount.
20 –
Good point.
20 – It feels to me as if supply should be more of a constraint than demand, for two reasons.
Effort associated with bringing new supply to market is very high, with long lead times, as well as the physical constraints associated with it. In addition, it’s not a commoditized market at all.
As existing housing stock deteriorates and is replaced, those homes are generally being replaced with housing stock that is significantly more expensive than the homes they replace (see my old post on the cost of dirt). This basically says that replacement churn alone can drive property values higher.
To some extent, I think that second factor is going to be playing a lead role in local home values in areas where a large portion of the housing stock was damaged by Sandy. When you rebuild, you are rebuilding to current standards, using modern materials and finishes. Much more costly to rebuild today, that it was in the past. Therefore, each property that is rebuilt will be rebuilt at a higher value than the old beach shack that was replaced. You can’t build a bungalow these days, it’s not cost effective.
grim [18],
I’m being a bit facetious, you know I understand. :) The Wyckoff crowd could hold on for a long time but how many of these homes do we look at and discover that they’re…. ahem…. a little underwater. They’ll stick it out for as long as they have to but let’s be honest, we’re gonna drag along the bottom for a long, long time.
Not trying to be a cheerleader, and not claiming that “it’s different here/this time.”
Just calling it like I see it, I mean, c’mon, that crapshack on Monroe closing at $590k? You can call the buyer an idiot, but he’s now set the market, and these kinds of sales aren’t outliers or one offs by any stretch.
Shit, even that disgusting Tandy Allen (the one we needed to hazmat disinfect after leaving) caught a bid, and I’m going to bet you it’s not far off from ask.
#15, I have a few friends who are living in the house their parents “gave” them…expl;ains how they can afford some things as they just pay the property tax. Thesae are 50+ folks and i imagine I can see one of their kids getting that house too.
You can say there aren’t any buyers, but there are plenty of closings, and the pace is increasing. Properties are catching bids, some very quickly, and at prices that me shake my head in wonder. Idiots or not, the market is the market, the comps are the comps. The demand in top tier towns continues to surprise everyone.
Dope – mahem’s ridiculousness has been well known in metal circles for years. Never been a big fan of black metal. Though I do have some cannibal corpse and some obscure Swedish crap in my I pod. the people of the north really love that crap
Grim – the malls in Omaha are actually pretty nice some of them high end. Granted you could not get me back there, place is cursed for me since I nearly died there. All Hype knows the story, it was straight out of gilligan’s island.
25 –
When my brother gets married this summer, he plans on moving into his Fiance’s parents house in Saddlebrook. They have split the house into two seperate apartments.
Remember old smokey in Wash Twp? The one where you had to burn your clothes because you couldn’t get the stench of ashtray out? Caught a bid. That’s the kind of thing I’m talking about.
grim,
It appears that the lack of inventory is driving people to jump… at least that’s the only thing I can think of. That house on Lillian in Park Ridge would’ve worked except we didn’t get feedback on the “development” behind it. Hampshire in WT would’ve worked and in hindsight, I should’ve been more aggressive. BTW, the one across the street on Hampshire (63?) dropped to the low 600s.
Bottom line: I’ll know it when I see it and if I have to stretch a little, I’ll do what I have to do. I’ll know my limit but again, the inventory is lacking and totally s.ucks. I’m not jumping in and then having 2nd thoughts because I’m not happy with the joint.
#24 grim: I don’t get it, but the market is what it is right now as you say. Many of the buyers IMO are not making the right decesion. And you have to ask yourself is it here we go again? (reinflate the bubble, crash and repeat). Nothing worth bidding on in Brigadoon (the old colonial too close to the school at 279k might have worked), and almost nothing (in my price range) in Oradell. There is a ranch in WT, but don’t really like it. And almost nothing in Midland Park.
#30 Fast: Nothing personal to our friend Jill, but I don’t thin WT should command a 600K price tag. Just my humble opinion.
There is a bifurcation in the market place between upper and lower tier suburbs. Bergen County mid-priced towns have strong demand and even home priced 10% above market are drawing offers. Passaic County towns like Bloomingdale, Pompton Lakes, etc…are like a black hole, you can’t get an offer even when priced close to recent sales.
#29 There was an old smokey in Hillsdale too, (backing up to a brook). I will have to check and see if that one is gone too.
3B,
The Hampshire Road neighborhood in WT is really nice. A lot of the houses are big splits and CHCs set back from the road and have really nice properties.
#37 Fast: I know the area and it is very nice. It is just 600k in WT is IMO a lot. ut what do I know.
#34 30 Year: You know better than me, but there is a lot of inventory in the lower tier towns around RE and Oradell. And with high taxes too.
30 year [34],
I’m curious to know what line of reasoning people use to dive on these properties. Is it the “status” name of a certain town? Is it the schools? I wonder what the “must haves” are in their head.
#40 Fast: AS far as WT, it did very well in the NJ School Rankings report this year, so that may help. And I notice some Realtors have started to use the word prestigious when describing WT.
McDullard,
Call me an ideologue if you want, but the thing that I have a problem with is the fact that some people think it’s “society’s money & property.” It is most definitely not. It belongs to specific individual people. I want to say people keep forgetting that point, but that is not true. They know and just don’t care.
192.McDullard says:
November 30, 2012 at 3:53 am
Moose #189
I found the full presentation. For starters, both hypothetical people are working full time. There is 20k in child care plus child health insurance (so, if they both have help from parents or church or if the kids are old enough, that 15k or so in child care “benefits” doesn’t exist anymore). As soon as the kids are over certain age, the CHIP stuff disappears. Then, there is a big difference in longer term pay, retirement benefits, perks, etc.
Any inflections on the graph should start a debate on how they can be smoothed out, rather than on why we should cut off medicaid and child care support for working poor.
What’s your take, should the society provide some additional benefits to a single mother with two kids making 65k (child care, CHIP, etc.), or should the society take away those benefits from a single mother that makes 29k?
One has to be an ideologue to believe that rational people choose a 29k pay over a 65k pay (both are full time jobs) because there is some free child care. The presentation ranks up there with some “think tank” articles against mundane things like employer provided health insurance (their logic being that if colonoscopies and radiation treatments just require a small co-pay, everyone will line up to have them day after day).
ExPat [13];
That is a great catch. I think it illustrates the lazy and incestuous nature of the media business. The subject of the NYTimes piece wasn’t just some random college kid with a compelling story. She was an ivy league undergrad who was probably interning in the news room. The editor or reporter search out the news, they took whatever happened to be lying around in front of them and spun a yarn out of it. The subject of the story went on to get a job at another paper. I don’t recall the ‘standards and ethics’ of journalism including making the ‘news’ about their own.
My biggest problem is I don’t want to settle for what I’m offered. If you’re giving me 3 houses to choose from and they all need walls removed AND Central Air installed AND have no yard, then I’m not diving. It’s not so much price at this juncture, we’re down substantially from peak. It has to do with f.ucked up layouts and an enormus amount of work to get it right. Don’t ask for 600K plus and then have to build a new house. I can’t accept that notion.
#39 – Honestly, I am as baffled as you guys as to what drives people in some of these situations. I am mostly on the listing side of transactions as I have little tolerance for buyers. This does not mean sellers are any more logical than buyers, just that I have them under contract. I can go on and on and on with stories about sellers. Have one right now in Glen Rock. Very nice location and home with great potential. House around 2400 square feet within short walk from the Main Line train. House needs $200,000 put into to compete with top condition homes selling for mid 700’s. Seller wants to list for $799,000. What are they thinking? You guys tell me!
re: # 15 – Grim “They don’t have a Riverside Square Mall in Omaha.”
Get out of Jersey more. NY Metro may have invented the “Mall” back in the 1950s with the creation of the Bergen Mall but it was perfected in the rest of fly over country.
http://journalstar.com/news/state-and-regional/nebraska/black-friday-crime-assault-in-lincoln-shooting-scare-at-omaha/article_7f59883c-bdc9-5f71-8569-0715d0f01f2e.html
3B,
I could care less what the talking heads consider prestigious or not prestigious. They don’t know sh1t anyway. I’m looking for footprint and a little privacy on the property.
30 year,
The majority of people are f.ucking m0rons. And I really mean they are f.ucking m0rons.
Juice (from yesterday):
Apple and Samsung fan-boys.
Game changer? Aakash 2 tablet
In the third world, yes. How many Tata Nanos have you seen on the road?
30-yr [44];
House around 2400 square feet within short walk from the Main Line train. House needs $200,000 put into to compete with top condition homes selling for mid 700′s. Seller wants to list for $799,000. What are they thinking? You guys tell me!
Then why take the listing? Is it a Powerball lottery ticket at the cost of an MLS entry? Is the plan to do nothing to sell it until the seller wakes up — let buyers and their agents spin their wheels for 6-12 months? Do you simply hope to still have the listing under contract when the seller capitulates?
A little rational self-interest and market discipline on the listing side would do a world of good.
Gary,
Have you considered taking the cash you have and just fixing what you don’t like about your current house?
#43..as I mentioned sometime earlier, I ran into exact same situation 5 years ago when looking to move up…i gave up and just renovated and added what I wanted where I was. Know what I had and what i was getting..it is a bit (!) of a pain living through it though. But I was faced with paying $200k more for the “location” then another $100k to give it AC,Kitchen, maintenance, etc.
51 – Your numbers ($200k/$100k) aren’t too far off, I’d say today, mid-tier to top-tier, it’s probably around $225k/$125k, and I’m not talking about getting a new house. That second number may need to be a touch higher if we’re talking about trading a less desirable layout (Bi-level) for a high foyer center hall.
Brian [50],
The thought has occurred.
Joyce [41];
some people think it’s “society’s money & property.” It is most definitely not. It belongs to specific individual people. I want to say people keep forgetting that point, but that is not true. They know and just don’t care.
+1
McDullard:
One has to be an ideologue to believe that rational people choose a 29k pay over a 65k pay (both are full time jobs) because there is some free child care.
Just to be clear, you’re apparently no longer of the opinion that “That chart seems to be pulled out of thin air“.
Having failed to disingenuously discredit the source so easily, you’re now arguing the conclusions to be drawn from the data. Well, it seems experience proves that those actually receiving the benefits are ‘ideologues’ as you put it.
Even the underprivileged are rational: The incentive effects of welfare
So besides watching my Rutgers team play like Rutgers as par usual last night, I get back to the Ferren Deck in downtown New Brunswick to find half of my front bumper on ‘Old Reliable’ sitting on the floor in front of her. Yup, I was the victim of a hit & run. Well I did the obligatory police report and made my call to Geico, but of course I’m not carrying collision on a 17 year-old Civic with a blue book value of $200. The parking garage of course claims they aren’t paying for anything nor were they helpful when I asked them to review the tapes to look for a large black SUV with metal bumpers, as I’m sure it was the guy whose tank I parked next to that did it (all large parking garages have cameras to record the license plates of cars coming in and out). I’m 99% percent sure the SUV driver was drunk (attended the game) and probably didn’t even realize he smashed my car. Fortunately, she was completely operable (no damage to the headlights or the radiator) so I was able to drive her home without any issue, beside the fact they took the GSP down to one lane in Cranford which took 20 minutes to get past. Here’s what she looks like now.
http://i442.photobucket.com/albums/qq145/stuw6/686AA799-3006-4F4B-B859-4610654E89C1-522-0000001BFE4CDAC1.jpg
So, does anyone know any miracle workers who could replace my bumper and turn indicator for a reasonable price? Junk yard parts would be fine.
Lib just google search those parts should bring up yards with those parts. Bumpers are really easy to install probably only 8 bolts
Lib looks like a 98 so here is what I found figure they will satisfy your cheap instincts
http://www.ehow.com/how_12115759_install-bumper-98-civic.html
and bumper
http://www.autopartswarehouse.com/shop_parts/bumper/honda/civic.html
53 –
You may have to be patient even if you go that route. I have a POS cape and I want to remove the wall (which I think is load bearing) that goes down the center of the house and cuts off the kitchen from the rest of the house. The two contractors I called, have already told me they are very busy and don’t know when they’ll even get to it.
Alternatively, I guess I might be able to try to put in a pass through myself.
Moose #49 – The seller is fully aware of my opinion. They have been told that when they call me in 30 days to tell me I am not doing my job because the house is not being shown, the answer will still be the same. THE PRICE IS TOO HIGH!
Listings put my name out there. Listings bring buyers and more listings. In certain respects it is a numbers game. Sellers are under contract with me for 6 months and motivation levels can change. Times are tough. Next year I will have 3 kids in college. Got to earn.
I am honest with my sellers. It is their home and they decide the price, not me. There is a huge difference between how I approach overpriced listings and the agent who tells the seller only what they want to hear.
55 –
Lib, years ago with my 96 pickup, my father hit a deer (I let him borrow it). I remember buying an aftermarket bumper from advanced auto parts. It wasn’t that hard to install. I did it myself in the driveway.
Yeah…The part that’s annoying is the smashed directional cover and bulb housing, but I suppose I could replace that too. Thanks for the parts advice. I’ll go that route for sure.
And I don’t know why anyone at all considers any part of Bergen county prestigious ( Alpine is excepted). It is convenient and nothing else. I dread driving thru that area as it is so depressing. Especially bad in summertime, as the waves of smog start appearing between Parsippany and Paterson driving east on Rte 80 and getting worse as you approach NYC. This babble is centered around jobs in NYC. If you have the choice to live in NJ, would you work in NYC? Not a fat chance for me.
disclaimer: Working from home is even better.
62
xolepa,
May I ask what you do for a living? be as vague or as specific as you feel comfortabel
I have 3 lives:
1) IT guy (very broad definition) for very large intl corp – main source of income, Was an independent consultant for 22 years before going f/t 10 years ago
2) real estate – landlord
3) own retail business – several employees. Takes up about 20 hours a week of my time. 20% cash
Today, Obama is extolling american manufacturing at a K’nex plant near here.
I seem to recall liberals being rather hostile to K’nex in the past. They wanted the toys banned. And while there are links to stories out there, for some reason the K’nex name no longer appears.
But I did find this recall notice, and what struck me wasn’t that K’nex had a recall, it was the “Manufactured in” line.
http://www.cpsc.gov/cpscpub/prerel/prhtml04/04065.html
Ooops.
Lib, go to this website, put in your zip code, you will be able to locate junkyards near you that have the parts you need, right down to the color and price. If you can find one already painted the right color you are good to go.
http://www.mypartshop.com/
Thanks. Was looking for a link like that. Otherwise it’s http://www.ebay.com/itm/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=230839355198&item=230839355198&lgeo=1&vectorid=229466#vi-ilComp that I’ll go with.
re # 48 – Tard – Apple is already suffering margin compression and is coming out with a much cheaper mini iPad. 700 dollars a share to a recent low of around 505, a decline of 30% does not signal a buy to me.
You can load up all you want, however their overpriced hardware and piss poor support model is going to take a beating, along with Samsung. It has always been that way with hardware and software tech. They had a good run however a reset of the game is coming.
stu (55)-
And here I was, thinking the car crash was on the field last night…
Good luck with that Big Ten thingy. Could be a couple of 2-9 seasons ahead.
4) I’m Batman. ;-)
Just curious, as I’m sometimes jealous of the work from home crowd. But I generally assume I’d rather work from home as needed or 1-2 a week as opposed to full-time. Do not want to get stir crazy.
64.xolepa says:
November 30, 2012 at 11:46 am
I have 3 lives:
1) IT guy (very broad definition) for very large intl corp – main source of income, Was an independent consultant for 22 years before going f/t 10 years ago
2) real estate – landlord
3) own retail business – several employees. Takes up about 20 hours a week of my time. 20% cash
Wells Fargo CEO: ‘I’m bullish on housing’
http://money.cnn.com/video/magazines/fortune/2012/11/26/ldrshp-wells-fargo-1.fortune
Juice box…we’ll see. I’m open to many opinions and trust me, I know all good runs always come to an end. I just don’t see their run ending just yet. As for margin compression. Yes maybe in their tablets, but not so much in their iPhones and definitely less so in their iMac and MacBook business. Besides my actual dollars invested (and it’s not a huge position), I’ve got a free lunch riding on it getting to $800 before $500. It’s a sick world where I really care almost as much about making a friend eat crow than the profit I’ll take if my position hits $800. Lets just say, I could probably buy lunch for many years with it.
Clot,
You are right about RU in the B1G…will be like year’s past. All 137 of them, between 1869 and 2006.
re #72 – Tard Today’s announcement sheds some light on their plans. They are actually banking on sales in China as their growth model and that includes the iphone 5.
Allot of US Tech companies got their asses handed to them by the PRC. Same game was played with US Car companies when they tried to open markets there and years ago in China and even in Japan.
Lib,
No shipping if you can find a local part. Plus you can get the small frame pieces that might be bent, hardware, lights and light socket, etc. While there grab some other parts cheap that you might need Not many know about that web link, I have been using it for years. There is also Harry’s U Pullit aka wegotutsed. They have monthly specials on a calendar where the parts are one price. You drive out to Pa, Pull the parts yourself. http://www.wegotused.com/
Thanks Phoenix. Actually, at this point I’m probably going to buy the aftermarket cover from that guy in Union City. After a month short of 18 years, a black primed bumper on my 17-year old beater is not an issue to me. Though, I may have to get a spoiler, one of those Honda Racing appliques and a ‘peeing’ Hobbes so I can really fit in naturally. I do appreciate all of the advice. We are getting close to buying our next car anyway. It’s a battle between the Mazda 5 (a true cap’n cheapo option) or the extended wheelbase Santa Fe which debuts today (if I’m not mistaken). Keeping the Xterra and losing the Civic would lean us towards the 5. Losing the X and keeping the Civic pushes us into the true SUV.
Juice:
Where’s the margin compression.
http://i442.photobucket.com/albums/qq145/stuw6/appleQTA.png
Tard – Projections of all of their Device Margins is down. They won’t be able to keep a 59% margin on the iPhone.
Literally draw your own conclusions here.
http://www.trefis.com/company?hm=AAPL.trefis&driver=10090#
Lib [55];
Just thinking out loud here, and I suppose if I was a lawyer barred in NJ I might know the answer to all this, but hypothetically one could file a complaint (small claims?) against John Doe 1 and John Doe 2 (driver and owner, respectively, of the black SUV) and the garage. Then you issue a discovery request to the garage for the takes from the night of the incident. Make it clear that cooperation in discovery would yield quick and favorable settlement terms, probably much less than their insurance deductible.
But then, maybe I just have too much time on my hands.
Nom [65];
Today, Obama is extolling american manufacturing at a K’nex plant near here.
Yeah, that’s where he said he was keeping a “naughty and nice list” of Republican Congressman. I have no illusions that this guy is all about bare knuckles Chicago retribution politics, but to come out and say it like that? Bush league (no pun intended).
#55 Lib
A true Captain Cheepo remounts the existing bumper with zip ties. I had to do it with a beat up Prelude I had. The MVS inspector failed the Bungee cords, but was quite happy with the zip tie replacements.
Brian [71];
Wells Fargo CEO: ‘I’m bullish on housing’
I remember someone asked Buffet (I think?) something like “Donald Trump thinks its a great time to but real estate;” to which he answered “Donald Trump has a lot of real estate to sell…”
I wonder what Wells’ REO and seriously delinquent book looks like these days?
[76] The Mazda5 is really utilitarian, efficient, and not really a displeasure to drive. We considered one, but kept our 2002 Mazda Tribute and bought a Mazda6 as the new car. We’ve been driving SUVs so long, it’s the first car-car we’ve had since the early 90’s. I really like it. BTW, Up this way you can get a brand new Mazda5 for $18K:
http://www.quirkmazda.com/specials/quirk-mazda-new.htm
Lib [76];
What do you think about the Mazda 6? I heard both that its too small for its intended purpose, and that its a reasonable mini-minivan for people with one or two kids. My current problem is that with two booster seats in back I can’t even take one passenger with my whole family in the car.
redo [84];
Mazda6 should be “Mazda5”?
expat mazda owners are like subaru owners cult like : ) Been in a 5 would not ever get in another one.
Eck, suburu, maybe if I was dead or some kind of hippy.
OK, I’m going to go sit in one. I’m agnostic on who gets the commission — Anyone know a Mazda salesman?
Looks like all of the ’12 newborns will have small class sizes as they move through the ranks.
Report Finds U.S. Birth Rate Has Dropped to Lowest Level Since 1920
http://news.yahoo.com/report-finds-u-birth-rate-dropped-lowest-level-155900057.html
Moose – We have friends who bought a Mazda5 just so they could go out and about with their two small kids and 1 grandparent. At 40mpg and 5 or 6 passengers there isn’t really anything else that you can compare it to. My favorite booster-seat friendly people mover was the now departed Buick LeSabre with bench seat in front and back. 3 adults could fit in front (all with shoulder belts) and 1 adult and two kids with boosters could fit in back and the trunk was so huge that you could put a stroller in without even folding it first. Nice ride and over 30mpg on the highway too.
What do you think about the Mazda 5? I heard both that its too small for its intended purpose, and that its a reasonable mini-minivan for people with one or two kids. My current problem is that with two booster seats in back I can’t even take one passenger with my whole family in the car.
Moose. Gator Jr is a giant and is essentially out of the booster already. Though baby Denarious will need to go through the whole series of seats. I’ve pretty much heard the same thing as you. It’s a peppy value with decent gas mileage but the third row is all but useless unless your family could be cast on Little People, Big World. It probably would work for us for about four or five years. Maybe a lease (oh dear)? My guess is that we’ll trade in the truck and will get the Santa Fe.
[90] strike the 40mpg comment for the Mazda5, I was thinking of the Mazda3 Skyactiv.
Why does my 2001 Sienna Van get 17 city and just got 28 MPG hwy to NC and back and the 10 year new vans/suvs don’t get much better???
ExPat [90];
That’s exactly what I need it for: Self, spouse, 2 kids, and I don’t have to leave someone behind when the other shoe drops and my MIL finally moves in.
Where is JJ? Wasn’t his last post the day before the hurricane?
Grim, Engineering guys told me that they contacted Microsoft this week about testing for deployment of windows 8….Microsoft people were excited and said we were one of the first large corporations to inquire about deploying it into the enterprise…..
Diesel powered Mazda 6 coming to us
http://money.cnn.com/m/#!/2012/11/30/americans_are_giving_diesels_a_second_look.json?category=Latest%20News
Prius is the only way to go!!!
grim, is there anything you can spot/stands out with the financing terms of what you are seeing sell up by you? just curious. you are right, the market is the market. and I think we’ve all hashed out the sell side situation pretty well with the demographics. What I want to know is the buyer profile.
Brian [97];
You see the price of diesel? 1/3 better gas mileage gets eaten up real quick by 1/3 more expensive fuel, espeically if you have to pay more at the outset.
Dope… Prius…
The jokes write themselves.
Con’t [100];
The Mazda5 eats regular unleaded. That’s ~$5 less per fill-up compared to premium.
When I bought my current (’07) CR-V I was trying to steer the spouse to a Mazda6 Wagon. I strongly believe that a SUV is nothing more than a glorified station wagon. In the late 80’s & early ’90’s, wagons were more popular than a “Jimmy” or Bronco, and the prices reflected that. SUV’s became the shiznit and blinged out ones are easily north of 50 large — 25% of GM’s volume, 50% of their profits. Flip side, ’07 was the last year of the Mazda 6 wagon. and dealers would give one away.
Wife insisted on AWD. Consoling myself, the Mazda 6 wagon had a V6 that and ate 91 octane and got worse mileage than the AWD CR-V.
Oh moose you fascinate.
[95] statler
There has been no JJ sightings since the storm. Perhaps we should hold a telethon or something.
In the meantime, everyone has to contribute one sexcapade story to keep the JJ spirit going. I’d start but I am sure everyone is already pretty tired and I would not want to induce sleepy driving, a crime there in Jersey.
[101] moose,
I like the Pious and if would want one but for three things: Cost to buy, cost to maintain, and Cost to remove what’s left of me and the car from the grill of some pickup truck.
[83] expat,
Quirk dealerships! Now there’s a trip down memory lane.
Busy weekend. Staying on my side of the river, literally and cyberwise. Peace out, y’all.
LOL. I was just thinking about Clot’s JJ tale with the high heels in the oar brackets of the dingy [sic]
Ever deal with a Deadbeat Graydon? I have seen several…..pathetic combination of arrogance, hubris, and blind fear……they know that their lives will never be better than the day before their parent died…..
Jason says:
November 30, 2012 at 8:53 am
[5] Grim, Why would “Deadbeat Graydon” hold out for a million when he could cash out for $800,000 or $600,000, still a significant chunk of change.
Just heard about a Jersey Shore estate sale. House listed for sale 1.2 M, to be divided up
between 5 siblings. No more $$ now do to Sandy home has allot of damage. I hope those siblings did not already spend the $$ they were about to inherit.
[106] Nom – I’ve bought 3 new cars from Quirk at great prices. I just never go back to them for service unless it’s warranty work. I’ve had other dealers tell me that Quirk are liars and bait and switch specialists, etc. Wellesley Mazda just straight out told me they can’t compete on price with Quirk. For that honesty I give them most of my service business.
Dedicated to the ghost of JJ:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlBe913KgOE
Nom [105];
Nothing says “Pretentious On Board” any surer. In that regard, the Pious is hardly a new phenomenon.
I have three booster seats in the back of my Prius. It has more uses than a Swiss army knife.
…And with that, ladies and gentlemen, post 112 (Nothing says “Pretentious On Board” any surer) rests its case. Have a good weekend, everybody.
stu: did you have any comment on this? I mean beyond GFY chifi?
chicagofinance says:
November 29, 2012 at 4:49 pm
Have you ever done a DCF where you didn’t sanity check it against the balance sheet two, three, five, ten years out? I am not making a commentary on this company, but rather your thought process. Don’t just become a fanboy, and then extrapolate into the future, while what you suggest may seem in fact ludicrous if fact checked in a world ten years from today.
Think about the strategic implications of what you are saying, market segmentation, foreign markets et al…….believe me, I am in your camp on the execution and the vision-thing….but you really have to cover all bases. Remember, you self-identify as “low risk”. In technology, margins are fleeting…..they always go asymptotic to zero before you ever predict…..ask RIMM, Dell, HP, Intel, Kodak, Xerox…….one of the only true visionaries has been IBM who had the foresight to dump PCs on Lenovo…..mint!
Libtard at home says:
November 29, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Chi: Personally, I think Apple is drastically undervalued.
I agree with this opinion. What I do not appreciate about the 80/287 cross is that it is effectively landlocked, so densely populated and infested with autos. I am not pounding my chest that I live in nirvana, but at least I can get to the ocean in about 15-20 minutes.
xolepa says:
November 30, 2012 at 11:33 am
And I don’t know why anyone at all considers any part of Bergen county prestigious ( Alpine is excepted). It is convenient and nothing else. I dread driving thru that area as it is so depressing. Especially bad in summertime, as the waves of smog start appearing between Parsippany and Paterson driving east on Rte 80 and getting worse as you approach NYC. This babble is centered around jobs in NYC. If you have the choice to live in NJ, would you work in NYC? Not a fat chance for me.
disclaimer: Working from home is even better.
I would be significantly less embarrassed to drive around in my bumperless 17-year old Civic than to be caught in the marketed to the retarded Prius. Plus I nearly get the same mileage. Let’s see how those batteries are working after 18 years.
For the board; the last known public sighting of JJ:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vi7Qv0aZGc0
The DCF is not the methodology I use though I am quite familiar with it and cash flow seems to be the most recent flavor of the month. I find it’s virtually impossible to predict future cash flow let alone earning growth and sales growth five years out. My simplistic methodology has served me and many others I know well. I think perhaps the power of it comes from not suffering from information overload.
I don’t want to share the entire methodology that I use, but essentially, I look for 5 years of consistent earnings/sales growth over 15% (ten years when possible, but rare these days). Then I track the p/e throughout the time period which creates essentially a p/e channel keeping in mind that p/e’s compress as companies grow. I weigh more recent years over earlier years too. I also evaluate management by looking at their use of debt, profit margin, return on equity, etc. After I come up with my own 5 year estimates for sales and earnings, I check them against the analysts and then I try to derive the same projected 5-year eps based on a revenue model which takes taxes, shares outstanding, and various other trends into consideration. If all three methods check out, I see if the stock price represents a good value (is the P correct versus the E?). Like a robot, a sell when the p gets too high based on that same channel and I purchase more if the P is not growing in line with the E. We all know stock prices follow earnings. Apples earnings continue to astound. The P is way behind the E. One can’t really predict what will happen over the next five years, but if it’s half as successful as they were in the prior ten, then I’ll be fine. I like to see a company that smoothly and consistently doubles earnings every five years. Apple has managed to 5x it. If they only 2x it, so be it. Their current price is not even close to representing the 5X even when it was in the 700s. In the 800s, I would be buying at current earnings.
To be clear, I am as much arguing with me as you. If the stock market is a voting machine, why are the polling numbers (i.e. P) so underwhelming……these are the same people that you are relying on to prop up your position. Just saying….. they don’t agree with you. Also, did you make that bet before or after November 16th?
Libtard at home says:
November 30, 2012 at 5:47 pm
We all know stock prices follow earnings. Apples earnings continue to astound. The P is way behind the E. One can’t really predict what will happen over the next five years, but if it’s half as successful as they were in the prior ten, then I’ll be fine. I like to see a company that smoothly and consistently doubles earnings every five years. Apple has managed to 5x it. If they only 2x it, so be it. Their current price is not even close to representing the 5X even when it was in the 700s. In the 800s, I would be buying at current earnings.
Another thing…..you are not betting on the same management team…..
Also, I hope that I am wrong…….
108. Your office would mark the deathknell for their personal finances.
ChiFi [118],
OMG! That is brutal! Geezus! Even enduring the Joe Pisarcik years as a Giants fan wasn’t nearly that hateful. Lol!!
Chi…I hear you loud and clear, though nothing you are telling me I haven’t heard before. If you really want to know my apple buys and sells (I won’t put # of shares in since I’m not JJ) I’ll collect them for you…
4/10/08 154.44 B
6/19/08 178.23 B
12/4/08 92.93 B (Ballsy move here)
5/13/10 264.53 B
2/10/11 359.48 B
12/7/11 390.19 S
4/20/12 573.12 B
10/26/12 606.40 B
Wish we could send gluteus back to wherever the f^*k he’s from sealed inside his Prius.
F*^kin’ $25,000 Yugo.
Drive it like you stole it, bitch!
?
Libtard at home says:
November 30, 2012 at 9:38 pm
12/7/11 390.19 S
BTW – my original loading up was right with you in 2008, the only thing is that I doubled down on Jobs illness in 2009, so I had a chunk in the low 80’s, but I removed the double down at around $180……chicken…..
My favorite account was a guy with a Roth that came to me, where is original $5K dropped to $2.7K…..I scrubbed it and threw everything into the iShitter (Roth was stub piece of broader rollover IRA/taxable account relationship)….the damned thing is now at about $18K-$19K, but all that gain is exempt from tax….I just pull up the account from time to time just to look at it in all its glory…..
I was also right with JJ loading up on every NJ muni I could find…..I seriously made a career out of the six months from November 2008 to April 2009.
I have basis on these bastards in a number of places in the low $9.00’s…….it is a leveraged closed end muni…..you’re not supposed to get a 2x bagger out of it…..
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NNJ
Follow up on adventures in MazdaLand:
Sales guy knows the high points of the car. B-
Tries to sell me the base model because he only had one and its a base model. C-
Out of business cards, writes his name and the showroom number on a — get this — ReMax Title Services pad. Don’t mind the stationary, he tells me, he’s a realtor by day. ROFLMAO (on the inside). F
I walk into the showroom at 7:30 PM, wife and kids in tow, with one goal, sit in the thing, try it on for size. I listened patiently to his spiel; I didn’t ask for a test drive; I didn’t more than glance at the sticker, I never asked a price. “He sits me down asking for my contact and some other info… “What can we do to get you into this car tonight?” F
Its not as tight or tiny as I might have thought. I was at least as cramped in the 3d row of the larger 3-row SUVs. If its reasonably powered on a test drive, I just might get one. Heater is gone on my old beater, and I just can’t stomach putting more money into it. Not that the heater core is so expensive, but its just the straw that broke the Camel’s back.
I get the sense that they are killing the Mazda5 line, and just haven’t announced it yet. Near as I can tell, the 2013 model year does not exist.
Money [126];
Ding.
Revel filing for bankruptcy?
Windows 8 makes perfect sense to me now…
https://d44ytnim3cfy5.cloudfront.net/assets/4594657/lightbox/preview-13-884789789789.jpg?1321298857
Grim I’d love to comment on that but I’m having trouble viewing it from my iPhone.
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