From HousingWire:
Shadow inventory contracts as investors snap up foreclosures
Current residential shadow inventory continued to fall from peak levels, CoreLogic said in a third quarter report.
Shadow inventory shrank to 2.3 million units in October, which represents a supply of seven months. This accounted for 85% of the 2.7 million properties currently seriously delinquent – in foreclosure or real estate owned. A year ago, shadow inventory stood at 2.6 million units, dropping 12.3%.
Shadow inventory is expected to continue to shrink due to investor demand, which will help absorb the already real estate-owned properties and foreclosed properties in the shadow inventory in 2013.
“We expect a gradual and progressive contraction in the shadow inventory in 2013 as investors continue to snap up foreclosed and REO properties and the broader recovery in housing market fundamentals takes hold,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.
The dollar volume of shadow inventory also fell to $376 billion, down from $399 billion a year ago.
…“It’s certainly encouraging to see the shadow inventory figures decrease over the last months, and it suggests that servicers are liquidating and approving short sales at greater velocity,” managing director Luis Vergara of Mission Capital Advisors told HousingWire.
…
“Almost half of the properties in the shadow are delinquent and not yet foreclosed,” Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic said.He added, “Given the long foreclosure timelines in many states, the current shadow inventory stock represents little immediate threat to a significant swing in housing market supply.”
In October, California, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey and New York made up 45% of the 2.7 million seriously delinquent properties. Last year, these states accounted for 51.3% of all the distressed mortgages, which were at least 90-days delinquent, in foreclosure or REO.
From Bloomberg:
Housing Lobby’s Win Costing U.S. $600 Billion: Mortgages
Congressional efforts to reduce the U.S. deficit revived tax breaks for mortgage insurance and extended interest deductions for homeowners that will cost the government $600 billion over five years.
“This is a meaningful win for the housing lobby generally and more specifically the mortgage insurance industry,” said Isaac Boltansky, an analyst for Compass Point Research & Trading LLC in Washington. “The mortgage finance establishment fared relatively well.”
Congress raced to pass the fiscal bill on Jan. 1 to avoid sweeping spending cuts and tax increases that jeopardized the economic recovery. Legislators also left in place a 2007 tax break for homeowners whose debt is forgiven by lenders and preserved exemptions for profits on home sales, while maintaining mortgage-interest deductions that Compass Point estimates will cost $600 billion over the next five years.
The moves could help a housing market that last year started to reverse a five-year slump that pushed the U.S. economy into the longest recession since the 1930s.
…
Homeowners will save about $100 billion this year from mortgage interest deductions, according to Compass Point, helping to make buying more affordable relative to renting. Congress, meanwhile, allowed payroll tax cuts to lapse, which will pull more than $100 billion from the economy, the primary reason why 77.1 percent of U.S.
households face higher taxes in 2013, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.
“What it seems to have come down to is trying to do as little damage to the nation’s housing market as they possibly could,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com, a mortgage-data firm in Riverdale, New Jersey.
Borrowers with mortgage insurance, from private guarantors or the U.S. government, will be able to deduct their premiums. That perquisite had expired at the end of 2011.
The change will apply retroactively to 2012 for homeowners making less than $110,000 a year and will remain in force this year, according to a summary of legislative changes from the National Association of Realtors.
From the WSJ:
Deductions Limits Will Affect Many
One of the biggest tax increases in the fiscal-cliff bill is also one of the least understood: a set of limits on tax deductions and other breaks that will hit far more households than the bill’s rate increases for top earners.
The bill that cleared Congress Tuesday boosts the tax rate for single filers making more than $400,000 and married couples filing jointly making more than $450,000, or roughly the top 1% of filers.
But provisions that reduce the value of personal exemptions as well as most itemized deductions, including those for mortgage interest and state income-tax payments, will affect about twice as many people since they carry a lower income threshold—$250,000 for singles and $300,000 for married couples.
Those new limits drew complaints from some groups that benefit from deductions, particularly charities that depend on tax-deductible donations. They worry that new curbs on deductions, coupled with other taxes on higher-income Americans, will put a damper on giving.
“We are concerned,” said Diana Aviv, president of Independent Sector, a coalition of foundations, nonprofits and other charitable groups. “The big question for us now is, if we are [also] increasing rates on folks…does the combination create a greater disincentive for people to give?”
…
The new limits are “like another cannonball being fired across our bow,” said Jerry Howard, chief executive of the National Association of Home Builders. “Clearly, it shows that the notion of limiting deductions is still one that’s being considered by policy makers.”
From CNBC:
‘Fiscal Cliff’ Deal Favors Housing Recovery
The housing market is on firmer ground today, as two major tax provisions survived the “fiscal cliff.” Congress did not touch the mortgage interest deduction, and it extended tax relief for one year on mortgage debt forgiveness.
“An extension of the tax break is positive for home values by reducing the number of foreclosures and helping more troubled borrowers stay in their homes,” wrote Jaret Seiberg of Guggenheim Partners. “That means less supply on the market.”
Under a law signed in 2007, debt relief on loan modifications, short sales, and foreclosures were no longer taxable; that break expired at the end of 2012. The fear was that if the tax break was not extended, home owners would not agree to short sales (when the home is sold for less than the value of the mortgage) because they would then face a tax bill. They would also not agree to principal reduction loan modifications, which have proven to be far more successful than other modifications that leave the principal balance as is.
…
The “fiscal cliff” deal also allows borrowers to deduct the amount they pay for private mortgage insurance, which has become increasingly prevalent in today’s tighter mortgage market.
…
All of the above will help to lower the number of foreclosures and support the slow rise in home prices. The number of homes in the so-called “shadow inventory” (properties that have seriously delinquent mortgages, are in foreclosure, or are owned by banks but not yet listed for sale) fell to 2.3 million in October, according to a new report from CoreLogic. That represents a seven-month supply at the current sales pace, and is a 12 percent drop from a year ago.
“We expect a gradual and progressive contraction in the shadow inventory in 2013 as investors continue to snap up foreclosed and REO properties and the broader recovery in housing market fundamentals takes hold,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic in a release.
yesterdays 240 – another funny line:
“It wasn’t a complex bill, and at that point, they pretty much knew what was in it. I didn’t take much more time reading it. I would not compare this to passage of Obamacare.”
Uhhhh…it was a republican bill! They new exactly what was in it…they just started hating the bill when Obama said he liked it.
Good Morning New Jersey
(that refers to the Healthcare bill)
Phish! or Phirst!
Here are the highlights of the bill passed Congress.
Congress passed legislation, which President Obama indicated he would sign, to avoid the fiscal cliff.
The legislation would allow tax rates to rise on the nation’s highest earners while also extending dozens of tax cuts for individuals and businesses. Specifically, the bill:
· Raises the top tax rate to 39.6% for married couples earning $450,000; single taxpayers earning $400,000. These amounts will be indexed for inflation.
· Raises long-term capital gains and qualifying dividends tax rate to 20% (from 15%) for taxpayers in the 39.6% tax bracket for regular and alternative minimum tax.
· Permanently extends Bush-era tax cuts from 2001 and 2003 for all other taxpayers.
· Reinstates phase-out of personal exemptions and overall limitation on itemized deductions for married couples filing jointly earning over $300,000 and single taxpayers earning over $250,000.
· Raises the maximum estate tax rate to 40% but keeps the exemption amount at $5 million, adjusted for inflation.
· Extends for 5 years (through 2018) the American Opportunity Tax Credit to pay for higher education, and special relief for families with 3 or more children for the refundable portion of the child tax credit and increased percentage for the earned income tax credit.
· Patches the AMT for 2012 and adjusts the exemption amount for inflation going forward.
· Extends through 2013 the following individual tax benefits: above the line deduction for teacher expenses, relief from cancellation of debt income for principal residences, parity for employer-provided mass transit benefits, deduction for mortgage insurance premiums as interest, election to deduct state and local sales taxes in lieu of income taxes, above the line deduction for qualified education expenses, tax-free distributions from IRA accounts for charitable purposes.
· Repeals the two-percentage-point reduction in Social Security tax on earned income. Starting in 2013, the rate will go back to 6.2% on earned income up to a maximum earnings of $113,700.
· Extends long term unemployment benefits through 2013.
· Extends through 2013 certain business tax provisions that expired at the end of 2011 including: the research credit, the new markets tax credit, railroad track maintenance credit, mine rescue team training credit, work opportunity credit, the Section 179 asset expensing at $500,000, Section 1202 stock exclusion at 100%, and empowerment zone incentives.
· Extends 50% bonus depreciation through 2013.
· Extends through 2013 certain energy tax incentives that expired at the end of 2011 including: energy efficient credit for existing homes, alternative fuel vehicle refueling property credit, biodiesel and renewable diesel incentives, wind credit, energy efficient credit for new homes, and credit for manufacture of energy efficient appliances.
At least 6 of the homes I mentioned “Closed in The Fly” over the summer have been knocked down and new construction has begun.
8 – More than half the current inventory is priced above $1m, and if we took the average of the prices of that set, it would be closer to $2m.
so you are suggesting that it is just more economical to buy a knockdown and build it out as you like? i would agree…on caveat is that you are buying the sh*tbox on a “less desirable” street.
With all this positive housing spin lately, I think we will see how amazingly fast sellers “forget” what we just went through (or are going through) and start jacking up their asks to bubble numbers again.
How much tax revenue would be on the table if we made all the illegals legal today?
10 – To some extent, yes, assuming you have the means of course (and I don’t mean just money, relationships with contractors are probably more important). If you are looking for something different or have specific tastes, there aren’t other options. If you are going to spend $2 million, you might as well get exactly what you want, no? The other reason I looked was to determine whether or not the existing stock represented any kind of justification for the activity, or if it was just some odd anomaly.
Maybe I’ve got Tenafly all wrong (it’s been a while since I spent any real time in the town), but I always looked at their high end market as an overflow from either Alpine or Englewood Cliffs, and not that it was ever a primary destination. From the looks of things, perhaps that’s changed a bit. (I’ve never really been a fan of Englewood Cliffs either to tell you the truth)
In my development, brand new built homes are being sold by the builder 15% more than the 6 year old homes in the development. Does this mean brand new homes depreciate 15 15% after delivery?
None. FEMA/Flood Insurance near me the price they pay out is predicated on using illegal help. For instance $8 dollar an hour per worker for rip outs. $10 an hour painting etc. Zero payment to cover permits, workers comps, insurance etc. No payment to cover sales tax on materials purchased. Basically they pay you to do job buying basic materials as cash price using off the books workers.
40 years ago when there were no illegals out on Long Island, only the super rich had lawn service, maid service and went out to eat often. Average folks if faced with paying a bus boy, gardener or maid the full salary of an on the books workers, benefits, taxes, insurance, etc. Wont do it. We will mow our own lawns, clean our own houses and eat out less. Most of the unskilled labor all do jobs we can do ourselves, we dont need any of them, we want them. A want is different than a need. We want them cause they are willing to work so cheap, the middle class can go to soccer games, football games, out to dinner, relax on weekend as cheap illegals do the work.
s
grim says:
January 3, 2013 at 8:53 am
How much tax revenue would be on the table if we made all the illegals legal today?
Tenafly is more of a town than the other two:
– Alpine kids play rec sports in Tenfly (CC’s kid wears a Tenafly rec uni)
– Alpine kids attend Tenafly High in 9-12.
– Tenafly – based on my experience – is a community.
– Tenafly has a downtown
– Alpine – based on the little I know – seems like a place where rich people have a house
Some of the homes in The Cliffs are gigantic, amazing, gorgeous, etc but I don’t know if there is a “community.” If you remember a few years ago there was a blind, black guy at Citi in LIC who was embezzling money…he bought up a few properties in The Cliffs.
From what I see of Englewood Cliffs from the parking lot of Bally Fitness is a lot of McMansions with no property. The only downtown is 9W. I’d take Tenafly any day.
15 – I’ve only seen a handful of homes in EC that I thought were very nice, most are architectural monstrosities. Maybe I should correct that, they didn’t bother to hire an architect at all, they just said make me the biggest brick front, faux stone, and stucco monstrosity you can, no no, don’t pick one, use all three, and where are the columns, we need more columns (read that in Chrisopher Walken’s voice for effect). Like I said before, I don’t like EC, maybe I just don’t understand it.
Fly is bifurcated, east of the tracks/engle and west. It’s one of the places where you can say “you can’t buy a median home here”, they don’t exist. Very expensive on one side, and the rest in the west. Proximity to Bergenfield is a major negative on the west side.
17 – agree on most points.
[4] dope,
Whenever I read something like that, I picture you as Billy Madison.
Just seems to fit somehow.
We are on the fast track to oblivion.
I work in Englewood Cliffs and commute up from Edgewater.
Englewood proper (down the hill on Palisades Avenue, past Dwight Eisenhower school) is more of a downtown area for Cliffs’ residents than 9W or Coytesville section of Fort Lee (north of 9W overpass). Come springtime many well kept women can be seen having lunch on the sidewalks in Englewood’s many restaurants.
Englewood is a town with two sides. Head a few blocks west, over the railroad tracks, past Vicki’s and Stabucks, and check cashing places and Asian takeout joints litter the streets (this is the Bergenfield bordering) section.
I agree with grim in that EC homes are monstrosities and somewhat lack cohesion.
sorry, didn’t refresh site. after reading 17, post seems redundant.
So I won my assessment for the third year in a row. I paid 280K in Feb 2000 and now the fair market value of my house is for tax purposes 313k. I am grieving again this year as I am trying to push the envelope to get house assessed at less than my purchase price.
My wife is claiming that is an artificial goal. My theory is RE is a bad investment everyone knows that so how could my house be worth more than I paid. Actually, my house is assessed currently around 60-80k less than other comps so I cant go the comp route.
I am hoping storm damaged fire sales between now and the April Deadline date will skew the results in my favor.
I dont really dont know why most people dont grieve each year. Other odd thing is folks who overpaid for house from 2003-2008 I noticed often dont grieve. They dont want to face facts or are pretending house is worth that much. Some neighbor who bought weak of peak at 575K in an identical house to mine is assessed at 440K and di not greive.
Dogfish Head 2013 Release Schedule
http://www.dogfish.com/files/DFH2013_ReleaseScheduleWeb_1.pdf
23 – Lowering your assessment value impacts your Zillow and Trulia value estimates.
Seif, speaking of beers, I got a six pack of this for Christmas:
http://flyingfish.com/beers/exit_4.html
Not as good as real Belgian beer of course but still very good. Strong too.
Nom [19];
You’re far too kind.
Who cares. Zero sum game, lower re taxes increase your value
grim says:
January 3, 2013 at 10:47 am
23 – Lowering your assessment value impacts your Zillow and Trulia value estimates.
[11] grim – Looking at it from the other side of the Rio Grande, how quickly would the entire housing market tank if we could chase all the illegals home in one fell swoop? You can avoid paying income tax at the lowest echelons, but you can’t avoid paying rent. IMO, rental RE is why our borders are so porous. If you could chase the illegals, the replacement low echelon would see an instant raise in wages and reduction of rents. The farm labor component of the price of a head of lettuce is less than 10 cents, BTW. Doubling the pay rate of farm laborers would, consequently, raise the cost of a head of lettuce by 10 cents.
How much tax revenue would be on the table if we made all the illegals legal today?
[27] moose,
He doesn’t bother me. I return the occasional volley for grins. Not worth the.effort to.be vituperative or to even try to.figure out his agenda.
I find my phones keypad much more annoying.
26 – enjoy!
i would still love to send you a top-notch six pack or mixer. i tried to get that collection for you during the summer to no avail. what is your local beer store? perhaps i can purchase over the phone and you can go pick it up.
agenda: buy brian a six-pack of beer
Time for dope to drink a hemlock martini.
[23] JJ – C’mon JJ, you’re on a good run, no need to exaggerate. Your tentative assessment is $313,600, so you should really round up to $314K.
So I won my assessment for the third year in a row. I paid 280K in Feb 2000 and now the fair market value of my house is for tax purposes 313k.
Speaking of Trulia:
Home Price Recovery Accelerated In 2012 With Asking Prices Rising 5.1 Percent Nationally Year-Over-Year While Rents Up 5.2 Percent
Trulia today released the latest findings from the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor, the earliest leading indicators available of trends in home prices and rents. Based on the for-sale homes and rentals listed on Trulia, these monitors take into account changes in the mix of listed homes and reflect trends in prices and rents for similar homes in similar neighborhoods through December 31, 2012.
…
In December 2012, asking prices increased 5.1 percent nationally year-over-year (Y-o-Y), marking a huge turnaround from being down 4.3 percent in December 2011. Moreover, not only are prices rising, these gains have accelerated in the last year. Quarter-over-quarter price changes were 0.8 percent in Q1 (March 2012), 0.4 percent in Q2 (June 2012), 1.4 percent in Q3 (September 2012), and 2.3 percent in Q4 (December 2012), seasonally adjusted.
…
Asking home prices increased the most in Phoenix, which rose 26.0 percent Y-o-Y in December 2012; however, Las Vegas and Seattle experienced the year’s most dramatic price turnarounds. Both had price gains of more than 10 percent in 2012 after declines of more than 10 percent in 2011. Overall, 2012 marked a huge turnaround year for most local housing markets. In fact, prices rose in 82 of the 100 largest metros at the end of December, compared with just 12 out of 100 in 2011.
From the report:
NY Metro
Asking Prices up 3.5% YOY
Asking Rents up 6.9% YOY
This is my last time doing it for awhile. I noticed they get PO’s at serial greivers, but on the other hand why stop till you lose.
I am going straight up for 214K. 100K off my assessed value due to storm damage. Figure I cant win 5x in a row. So 4x I am going big or going home. Plus Grim has me somewhat convinced RE is turning the corner so between Sandy sales at comps this is going to be last good year to grieve in awhile. Anyone who does not grieve is foolish.
Towns are going to be pumping up assessed values big time in 2014 and forward. Towns have large looming deficits and hard to raise tax rates all the time. Just bump up home prices every year for next few years and you can claim no new taxes rates stay the same.
Most states and cities have caps on how quick you can raise taxes to prevent folks from being taxed out of homes. NYS it is 6% a year or 20% over five years is most they can raise your assessed value.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
January 3, 2013 at 11:33 am
[23] JJ – C’mon JJ, you’re on a good run, no need to exaggerate. Your tentative assessment is $313,600, so you should really round up to $314K.
So I won my assessment for the third year in a row. I paid 280K in Feb 2000 and now the fair market value of my house is for tax purposes 313k.
The ratings agencies are waking up. Soon, they and the bond vigilantes will begin to have their way.
Doom is nigh.
Dope reminds me that I owe Pain a six pack.
Pain: I will be in Howell, NJ (wherever the hell that is) on 1/12. If that is close to you and you want to GTG, let me know.
[39] redux,
Got it. At least it is all highway. Chifi, looks like I will be right next door. You around that day?
[33] ernest,
You sell a hemlock vodka? (why not, there is every other damn flavor now. Did I actually see birthday cake flavored vodka somewhere?)
41 – I saw a chocolate chip cookie dough flavored vodka at a christmas party this year…Barf….
I may be going to hell in a bucket, babe, But at least I’m enjoying the ride. At least I’m enjoying the ride.
Michael Gavin, the head of U.S. asset allocation for Barclays, pointed out this month that over the past 30 years an investor who stayed invested in U.S., or British, 10-year government bonds would have earned more than 5 percent a year over inflation.
“It does not require advanced market math to understand that returns like these are no longer remotely plausible,” he wrote. “But they say that fish don’t know that they live in water — until they are removed from it — and we wonder if some of the many market participants whose entire professional experience has been conditioned by the financial backdrop created by the bond market rally might underestimate some consequences of its termination.”
Lock in those mortgage rates now ladies and gents looks like a rough ride from here. Long Beach and NJ towns got lucky in this storm, they are locking in long term munis to pay for damage at near zero interest rates, next time they wont get so lucky. But then again when those 30 year bonds mature what do I care. My grandkids will have to deal with it.
Stinking liberal press. This is bullspit. They know damn well that EVERYONE loves Sarah Palin. The stinking liberals only poll their damn echo chamber. Liberals make me want to puke.
Clinton soars, Palin plummets in most-admired survey
By NCC Staff | National Constitution Center – 2 hrs 3 mins ago
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sets a record in Gallup’s annual most-admired survey, while Sarah Palin falls farther off the popularity radar.
800px-Defense.gov_News_Photo_100406-D-7203C-002Gallup has run its most-admired man and woman survey since World War II, and in the 2012 edition, Clinton and President Barack Obama kept their top positions among those asked a simple question: “What man that you have heard or read about, living today in any part of the world, do you admire most? And who is your second choice?”
Clinton was named as most-admired woman for the 17th time since she became a national figure in 1992. Eleanor Roosevelt held the previous record when she was named 13 times as the most-admired woman.
The only two women to finish ahead of Clinton in that 20-year period were Mother Teresa (twice) and Laura Bush (once).
http://news.yahoo.com/clinton-soars-palin-plummets-most-143025450.html
Bloomberg Business Week
Best Place to Raise Kids
New Jersey: Norwood
Population: 5,710
GreatSchools city score: 9
Median family income: $102,933
Housing costs as a percentage of income: 30.3%
County unemployment rate: 8.1%
Nearby city: New York
A comfortable distance from the bustle of New York, Norwood is among northern New Jersey’s great school districts. The borough’s involved parent-teacher organization plans student programs and charity drives in which children can participate.
I will check….give me windows of time….
Comrade Nom Deplume slowly getting back into housing market says:
January 3, 2013 at 12:08 pm
[39] redux, Got it. At least it is all highway. Chifi, looks like I will be right next door. You around that day?
As of the 2000 census, 12.69% of Norwood’s residents identified themselves as being of Korean ancestry, which was the eighth highest in the United States and sixth highest of any municipality in New Jersey, for all places with 1,000 or more residents identifying their ancestry.[23]
49 – Palisades Park takes the honor of having the highest Korean population in the entire US.
“and we wonder if some of the many market participants whose entire professional experience has been conditioned by the financial backdrop created by the bond market rally might underestimate some consequences of its termination.”
Probably the single most important piece of information you will read for the foreseeable future. This encompasses probably 99.4% of the investment and economic world.
Stock Investors 1999, RE investors 2005, Bond Investors 2013. Anytime you have long long bull runs folks get too comfortable and “experts” provide bad advice. Any go go tenured seasoned stock broker in 1999 or Realtor in 2005 drank the koolaid and let folks down the path to ruin.
Anyhow buying 10-30 year non callable treasuries, investment grade or junk bonds today will be spanked. 1970 30 year treasuries in 1991 were trading at 56 cents on a dollar. Take that sir. And unlike housing or Sandy no one will bail you out.
Housing will get spanked hard too when 9% mortgage make a comeback. Folks lucky to lock in the 3% mortgages today are set for life as long as they never move. Next person wont think you 700K pos is as great deal at 9% as you thought it was at 3%.
Only blue chip firms with pricing power, step-ups, I-bonds, floating bonds, metals, oil etc. will be safe.
daddyo says:
January 3, 2013 at 1:04 pm
“and we wonder if some of the many market participants whose entire professional experience has been conditioned by the financial backdrop created by the bond market rally might underestimate some consequences of its termination.”
Probably the single most important piece of information you will read for the foreseeable future. This encompasses probably 99.4% of the investment and economic world.
[47] chifi
I have to be at Howell High School (website says Farmingdale, fwiw) for a competition. I only have to be present for a few minutes of it, probably sometime in the morning, so I will be there from early morning (9 or so) until around 3:30.
FYI: These competitions are always tentative and we could scratch at the last minute. Not likely since this is a late add but always a risk.
Palisades has the rides, Palisades have the fun come on down. Palisades has the gooks and very little spooks come one down,
grim says:
January 3, 2013 at 1:03 pm
49 – Palisades Park takes the honor of having the highest Korean population in the entire US.
daddyo and JJ: right on brothers…..investing isn’t always about making a killing….a good 50% of the time you should just avoid doing something that blows you up…..
JJ’s B.Se says:
January 3, 2013 at 1:11 pm
Only blue chip firms with pricing power, step-ups, I-bonds, floating bonds, metals, oil etc. will be safe.
Pal Park also has Red Light Cameras to supplement income from real estate taxes .
Also lovely dining , if you get the drift
Let me know as the date gets closer….there is a hockey facility around there and I think a decent bar down the road from it…..a bunch of reitred NJ Devils players mess around over there……
Comrade Nom Deplume slowly getting back into housing market says:
January 3, 2013 at 1:12 pm
[47] chifi
I have to be at Howell High School (website says Farmingdale, fwiw) for a competition. I only have to be present for a few minutes of it, probably sometime in the morning, so I will be there from early morning (9 or so) until around 3:30.
FYI: These competitions are always tentative and we could scratch at the last minute. Not likely since this is a late add but always a risk.
Hey what’s with the handle nom? You buying a house?
Speaking of bonds, Gross speaks.
“Money for Nothin’ Writing Checks For Free”
Seif thanks. Preesh. Save your money man. Maybe put it towards a high capacity magazine for your rifle or something.
BTW Grim, I saw the comments about heat pumps….I was in a condo complex built in the mid 80’s in southeastern PA. Every single one of them had a heat pump as their main source of heat. The one I was in they added electric baseboard to supplement in some rooms.
Cifi, I may not be an expert like you. But I opened this brokerage account in March 2007 to invest my trade up house fund as housing was overpriced and I had a few years.
How does my annualized return since 2007 compare? Lots of Luck, Lots of Balls and a Bull market blowing at my back. But still not bad. I would like to thank TARP, ZIRP, the EU and all the folks puffing up the market like a 90’s Javits trannie ho.
1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Since Inception*
+19.21% +11.09% +17.45% — +21.75% 03/31/2007
chicagofinance says:
January 3, 2013 at 1:16 pm
daddyo and JJ: right on brothers…..investing isn’t always about making a killing….a good 50% of the time you should just avoid doing something that blows you up…..
60 – Just seems odd, maybe they didn’t have a nat gas infrastructure in place at the time. Really seems odd to be using something like that unless electricity is incredibly cheap.
I did some research and found out that a few of the Mitsubishi mini split AC’s are available in heat pump format (heating and cooling) and still have decent efficiency down to zero degrees (and beyond).
Would almost consider doing that in the basement, would save me the hassle of running a new baseboard zone *AND* a new AC (as I can’t duct from the attic). The uplift in cost is minor, and I don’t have a massive heating/cooling load down here.
[57] brian,
Not yet, but that’s the goal. And on that note, I must be off.
23 – Grim,
You wrote:
January 3, 2013 at 10:47 am
23 – Lowering your assessment value impacts your Zillow and Trulia value estimates.
You hit a nerve regarding fair value/fair assessment.
If the assessment is done according to the county assessor’s handbook, which purportedly provides uniformity from township to township for all counties in the state, then how is your statement substantiated? Based on the assessed value of the land? On the improvements? Both? Also, the rate applicable could be less than 100% (or for that matter, greater than 100%).
The Trulia/Zillow/AOL/HOMES.com/etc are valuations.
Wouldn’t any true valuation go to the property specific convenience factors, safety and enhancements over the standard in the handbook (e.g., stainless/maple/granite over powdercoated metal/pine/laminate)?
An interesting thought: JJ’s assessment is lowered due to need for enhancement/modernization. Town raises tax rates. JJ eventually gets around to making the improvement. Town keeps tax rates high, regardless of modernization
What’s incorrect?
What material consideration is missed?
Etc.
Thunder Bird
Thunder Bird,
I’m going to say grim was being facetious in regards to lower your Trulia et al estimates. Who gives a ___ about them?
My town bases it only on Comps. So recent sales of similar sized houses. If I am 1,600 square feet three bedroom two bath etc, I get considered to a similar house that sold with adjustments for instance if my yard is slightly bigger, I have a garage etc.
My house my garage, porch is trashed out. Looks like a war zone and I am not fixing it. Use both for storage. My living room/dining room subfloor and floors are warped and baseboard heating has some rust and I aint fixing it. Plus does not take a must to realize that 2/3rds of my house was damaged. I am fixing a large part of it. New Den, New Bathroom, new Laundry Room, New electrical, new heat, oil tank.
But how can one say the value of my house did not fall. It I was buying my house and saw entire lower level new. Entire upper level old and painted radiator covers, newly sanded floors, and saw if you looked close rusty nails hiding under all the trim in the main level I might run.
I bet even if my house had minor damage the short term effect is significant. Remember it is my 1-1-13 value of home I am disputing. A point in time. I stick a for sale sign on my home as is today, half finished renovation, water lines six feet up in garage and dumpsters up and down my block. Even better when they see two homes to left of me completely gutted and unlivable. I aint selling to no one except bargain hunters.
Towns are going to have a tough time getting assessed values back up in damaged houses. First you have sympathy going for you. Second. What is my motivation to ever finish repairs. Let it be, pay low taxes and fix it when I go to sell it. Also will be cheaper to sheet rock garage and porch, redo floors and baseboards in one to two years. Also Folks are taking big casualty losses on homes that knock off the basis of house. My new basis is down to maybe 210K. With higher rates on gains I may never sell. And if I do sell, I may opt to do it without fixing it, no realtor, some cash for furniture, etc. anything to lower my gain. Which in turn drives comps lower and lower.
The assessed value of nondamaged homes. are getting hit hard. In towns where all homes were damaged zero sum game, we reduce all and raise rates. My town is not like that. Places like Masapequa on water where only rich houses on water are getting tax breaks will be interesting as the majority of homes are small little shacks. And they were undamaged
Grim [62];
I rented ’99-’01 in the Baltimore/DC corridor (Columbia, MD) in an Avalon Bay garden apartment community. Each unit was entirely self-contained, including electric washer/dryer, electric hot water heater, and reversible electric AC/heat pump. The heat pumps let them avoid dealing with the gas company altogether.
There were little if any ‘common’ utility charges in the place — it was all pushed onto the tenants by individual unit. They even hired some front company from Texas to print and send water/sewer bills to the residents. Funny bills, they charged separate rates for water and sewer, but the quantity of both was always the same. I suppose it’s basic physics — what goes in must come out. I have no idea why they didn’t just combine the rates. I figured out they were phony when I noticed an anomalous jump in my bill once. I demanded to inspect the meter they were using, and never got another bill from them.
Life of misery, dead ahead.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/5804560709/
http://www.nj.com/monmouth/index.ssf/2013/01/marlboro_schools_chief_armed_guards_will_rachet_up_school_security.html
Marlboro is first N.J. district to place armed guards at schools
MARLBORO — The armed police officers who began patrolling Asher Holmes Elementary and seven other schools in Marlboro today are giving parents like Lucian Nicolescu peace of mind.
“I’m in favor of this change. I feel safer sending my daughter to school knowing there are police there to protect her,” said Nicolescu, whose 9-year-old attends Asher Holmes.
In the wake of last month’s school shooting in Newtown, Conn., where 20 children and six teachers were killed, Marlboro today became the first district in New Jersey to staff public schools with armed officers.
Superintendent David Abbott said he decided to place officers in the schools after township officials asked him to “ratchet up” school security in the district, which has an enrollment of about 5,300 students.
49
Pal Park – I think it’s 100% Korean. At least looks that way when you drive down Broad Ave.
Here, in Hunterdon county, we have some towns that are 99.5% Caucasian……..
And isn’t Tenafly highly Korean? My god, the BMW dealer there used to have a section in the showroom roped off just for Korean customers. Is that still there to this day?
They cant pronounce Cadillac which is why they buy BMWs.
xolepa says:
January 3, 2013 at 4:01 pm
Here, in Hunterdon county, we have some towns that are 99.5% Caucasian……..
And isn’t Tenafly highly Korean? My god, the BMW dealer there used to have a section in the showroom roped off just for Korean customers. Is that still there to this day?
José Canseco’s Insane New Year’s Resolutions
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jpmoore/jos-cansecos-insane-new-years-resolutions
You think it’s coincidence that NJ (Bergen) is home to the US HQ’s of both Samsung and LG? Oh yea, also Hanjin Shipping, Hyundai, both Kumho and Hankook Tires (the latter is Wayne, but close enough), Daewoo, and plenty of others. NJ taxpayers should probably be more welcoming to the Koreans.
Lay off my Frushing Faithful…….or I will douse you with dry cleaning fluid……
JJ’s B.Se says:
January 3, 2013 at 4:04 pm
They cant pronounce Cadillac which is why they buy BMWs
Yes, Tenafly and most surrounding areas have large Asian populations. And America has a pretty diverse population itself. Some people (around here) seem to have an incredibly hard time coming to grips with that.
Way back 233 years ago…
“The melting pot is a metaphor for a heterogeneous society becoming more homogeneous, the different elements “melting together” into a harmonious whole with a common culture. It is particularly used to describe the assimilation of immigrants to the USA;[1] the melting-together metaphor was in use by the 1780s.”
YOU CAN EDIT POSTS? SINCE WHEN?
grim says:
January 3, 2013 at 4:17 pm
You think it’s coincidence that NJ (Bergen) is home to the US HQ’s of both Samsung and LG? Oh yea, also Hanjin Shipping, Hyundai, both Kumho and Hankook Tires (the latter is Wayne, but close enough), Daewoo, and plenty of others. NJ taxpayers should probably be more welcoming to the Koreans.
Koreans are actually to be admired in many ways. They are family oriented, stick to their diaspora, eat healthy and live long prosperous lives.
Just don’t be a roommate with one in college. They tend to separate themselves from the mainstream almost immediately after arriving to the university scene. And the parents essentially dump them off, never visiting them on campus. Let’s just say they usually don’t contribute to the social scene.
Ask me how I know.
Brian – I can spare the $12.
Give me the name of your closest beer store with a decent selection and you can pick it up tomorrow night. They will have it waiting for “Brian from NJ RE Report.” You can tell your wife “some hippie bought us a six-pack. Hopefully we will be able to do the same for another young family in the future.”
I can, but there isn’t a way for anyone else to do it, it’s an admin/moderation function I guess. I use it to compensate for my shitty grammar, but folks email me all the time asking me to delete stuff.
You guys should see all the shit I get Fed Ex’ed to me from lawyers telling me to delete specific posts or they’ll sue for slander or something else. I still get at least a dozen a year. I got one a few months back with like 180 pages of print outs with all sorts of posts about a specific topic I needed to delete.
Amazing what you can get cleaned up if you’ve got the money for lawyers.
79 – your masseuse uses the term “frip over” a lot.
P,L,D
You may have a point. I believe some years back a group of Koreans got busted for doing those naughty deeds in Flemington. Now, you’re talking my neck of the woods.
Grim (81): Really?
79. I don’t find Korean wimmen particulary attractive. Give me a good ol’ all American hottie.
Rut roh.
The End Is Nigh (JJ News at 11 Edition):
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/lap-dancer-critical-fall-15-foot-balcony-article-1.1231898
#81 grim
So that explains why I can’t find a lot of my older posts. Do we have a worst offender or is a spread across the board?
81. No way!! Unreal. Can we at least ask what the topic was grim?
Down the Rabbit hole we go, so strap in folks.
http://www.businessinsider.com/suddenly-lots-of-influential-people-are-talking-about-the-trillion-dollar-coin-idea-to-save-the-economy-2013-1
Comments around pending litigation, naming of specific investment managers/funds/investors, reposts of news articles/links that were retracted after publishing, etc.
Chifi,
Morning and early afternoon are best. I am out of there by 3.
Any of Pimco’s lawyers try to shut you up, grim?
Coming soon to a Western superpower near you:
“Spain Plunders 90% Of Social Security Fund To Buy Its Own Debt”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-03/spain-plunders-90-social-security-fund-buy-its-own-debt
cool weblog over here! Thanks for posting…
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