From CNBC:
Homeowners With No Mortgage Offer Clues to Recovery
As federal regulators and banks argue over whether new lending standards will make mortgage credit too tight or too expensive, one important fact about the housing market goes largely overlooked: More than 20 million American homeowners own their homes outright. No mortgage.
This represents just about one third of all homeowners nationwide, according to a new report from Zillow, a real estate information, sales and mortgage website.
Demographics, home prices and geographical location all seem to play into “free-and-clear” home ownership, according to Zillow’s survey.
Out of the nation’s top 30 housing markets, Pittsburgh, Tampa, New York, Cleveland and Miami had the highest percentage of free-and-clear homeowners. A high number of all-cash, foreign buyers probably plays into New York and Miami. The other cities have relatively low home values, compared to the rest of the nation, making it easier for homeowners to either buy their homes outright or pay off their mortgages more quickly.
…
So what can these factors tell us about the current housing recovery?One of the biggest drags on the housing market is that nearly one third of all borrowers owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth. These so-called “underwater” borrowers are stuck in place, unless they want to pay in to their mortgages to get out of their homes.
Obviously if a homeowner does not have a mortgage, they are more able to list their home for sale and buy a new property.
…
“By determining where these homeowners are located, we can also gain insight into potential inventory and demand in those areas, as well,” notes Zillow’s chief economist Stan Humphries.
From the WSJ:
New Mortgage Rules: The Reviews Come In
The day the lending industry has been nervously anticipating has finally come.
The federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has rolled out new rules that reshape the U.S. mortgage industry, and are designed to ensure that lenders don’t return to the lax standards that fueled the housing market’s boom and bust.
The rules implement what seems to be a logical proposition—that lenders consider borrowers’ ability to repay the loans they are given. But given the complexity of the issue, it took months of work for the consumer bureau to arrive at a definition of a “qualified mortgage” that would meet standards spelled out in the Dodd-Frank financial law of 2010.
The consumer bureau decided that lenders could satisfy this requirement in two ways: by making loans where the borrower is spending up to 43% of their income on debt payments –or by satisfying the lending standards of Fannie Mae Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration.
Some “jumbo” loans that can’t be sold to Fannie or Freddie might not be able to meet these requirements. That could dampen the availability of loans to jumbo borrowers with high debt levels, potentially putting a squeeze on sales in parts of the country where the housing market is still weak.
The rule contains key protection from consumer lawsuits sought by the lending industry. This “safe harbor” against litigation from foreclosed homeowners will only apply for loans that meet the qualified mortgage standards and are issued at interest rates that are no more than 1.5 percentage points above a national average.
Consumer advocates are unhappy with this move, as they had pushed for fewer protections from legal challenges.
Frist of the non-grim
100% of homeowners own their own home.
The 2/3rds of folks with mortgages dont yet own their home.
Good Morning New Jersey
I love this home, 3 out of the last four owners went bankrupt by buying this home.
Mar 07, 2012
Sold (Public Records)
This home was
foreclosed
Foreclosure
and
bank-owned.
REO (Real Estate Owned Home)
$373,314
— Public Records
Jun 22, 2006
Sold (Public Records)
$479,000 20.2%/yr Public Records
Dec 30, 2004
Sold (Public Records)
This home was sold at a
foreclosure
Foreclosure
auction.
$286,000
— Public Records
May 12, 2000
Sold (Public Records)
This was part of a
multi-property sale.
Multi-Property Sale
$155,500
— Public Records
John Carney from CNBC completely blows this one… Someone seems to have forgotten about the originate to securitize model of lending (for those who don’t know what that is, I’ll sum it up as, “the lender lends other people’s money”).
Beware the Escape Hatch in the New Mortgage Rules
If it strikes you as odd that a lender needs to be told by the government that it should consider the ability of its customers to repay a loan, you are not alone. I know some loans seem so stupid that it’s hard to believe that whoever made it thought he’d be repaid. We just went through a financial crisis the proximate cause of which was, after all, lots of people not being able to pay their loans. But nearly all those loans were made under the (perhaps delusional) belief that they would be repaid one way or another.
Lenders want to be repaid. Even a lender that sells loans to investors or repackages them as securities needs to provide reassurance that a borrower can repay the loan. If you aren’t planning on getting repaid, you aren’t really a lender at all. You’re a charity.
But nearly all those loans were made under the (perhaps delusional) belief that they would be repaid one way or another.
The loans were made under the completely rational belief that the real estate agent would make money, and the appraiser would make money, and the mortgage broker would make money, and the lawyers would make money, and the inspectors would make money, and the title companies would make money, and the investment bank would make money, and the banker would make money, and the holder of the MBS would make … eh, f*ck them.
If I am an investor with lots of cash, I’m going after income-producing RE hard.
Simply a matter of no greater returns to be had in other asset classes.
Four Questions
Is there any reason the yield on 10-year munis can’t climb to 3%?
Is there any reason the yield on 10-year munis shouldn’t climb to 3%?
If the yield on 10-year munis does rise to 3%, do you want to be in munis?
Where’s the value?
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#vmVTHTJVy0tLpwYu.99
Very few people buy AAA rated 10 year munis. There is no yield in it. Muni folks have been buying lower rated paper. B’s and low As as defaults are still very very low and you get 5% yield. If rates rise it means stronger economy less likely B paper defaults so the first 200bps rise is no big thang.
I wont touch a muni earning less than 3%. I like 4% and I shoot for 5-7%. Plus you have kicker bonds, floaters and all sorts of things. Yes for folks in long term non callable A rated munis if the ten year rises to 3% they will be kicked in the nuts TWICE.
Once the loss, twice the fact losses on munis are not as easy to deduct the loss on your tax return. Also spreads widen as buyers are less so bid to ask widens.
People generally outside muni etfs dont panic as much. I have a lot of munis and if rates rise I just stop investing for a few years and let them mature or reinvest interest elsewhere. Unlike stocks where we all hit the panic buttom.
Ernest Money says:
January 11, 2013 at 7:19 am
Four Questions
Is there any reason the yield on 10-year munis can’t climb to 3%?
Is there any reason the yield on 10-year munis shouldn’t climb to 3%?
If the yield on 10-year munis does rise to 3%, do you want to be in munis?
Where’s the value?
Money [8];
Simply a matter of no greater returns to be had in other asset classes.
Shocked taht you missed this in the current environment — What about small arms?
I didn’t miss it. It’s just that the per>erse incentives offered by your bankster thugs at the Fed only recently became so overwhelming that WS felt compelled to move into the game.
Funny thing is, banksters suck at RE. Even when the game is rigged in their favor.
This won’t end well.
Fast Eddie is still alive – new job has consumed him. We almost had a house; went back on forth a few times on price. We offered him within market comps but he “needed to get” his price. His own f.ucking realtor was trying to show him comps, he didn’t want to hear it. The house is currently listed over 5 months now. They can burn my number.
Money [12];
recently became so overwhelming that WS felt compelled to move into the game.
Funny thing is, banksters suck at RE. Even when the game is rigged in their favor.
Not sure I follow you. I meant small arms/ammo as a commodity play.
Atta boy Gary
You did succeed in helping his listing agent get a $24,000 price reduction. What are they down now, $55k from their insane original asking price?
Hate to interject this but my greatest return did come in the metals I mentioned years ago: brass, lead, gun . . .
I figure roughly that this “portfolio” grew at 20-25% per year.
[14] moose,
I considered once getting reloading equipment and supplies but couldn’t justify it to myself at the time. I’m kicking myself now.
I’m looking to invest in 3D food and arms printing.
Good luck printing a chamber and barrel that won’t blow up in your hands and probably kill you.
What can you realistically print, the stock? You could carve one out of a tree branch and save yourself a fortune.
Even non-metallic modern thermoplastic or composite receivers (ala Glock) are a stretch. Sure, a printed receiver might work for a few rounds, but I wouldn’t trust the thing worth a damn.
17 – are these for hunting or protection?
Pay your fair share….we don’t have a spending problem….
Fast Eddie says:
January 11, 2013 at 8:05 am
Fast Eddie is still alive – new job has consumed him.
The comrade in person
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dale_Gribble
The End Is Nigh (OMG Are You Fuking Kidding Me Traffic Edition):
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/highway_headache_pulaski_skyway_i4NF0P1erdFYEEPvJgKY1K
We DID have a spending problem…and we are cleaning it up:
“My Republican colleagues say that the deficits are a spending problem, not a revenue problem. What these deficit-hawk hypocrites won’t talk about is their spending. They won’t discuss what they did to dig the country into this $1 trillion deep deficit hole. They waged wars in Afghanistan and Iraq without paying for them. They gave away huge tax breaks for the rich. They squandered taxpayer dollars on the pharmaceutical industry by making it illegal to let Medicare bargain for lower drug prices. They also rescinded financial regulations that enabled Wall Street to operate like a gambling casino, leading to a severe recession that eroded tax revenue and left more than 14 percent of American workers unemployed or underemployed.
Now, despite the deficits their policies helped to create and despite the enormous suffering which exists in our society, the Republicans want to cut Social Security, veterans’ programs, Medicare, Medicaid, education, nutrition programs, and virtually every program which benefits low- and moderate-income Americans.”
for Lib…maybe you can add to the comments section:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/01/why-is-buying-a-car-in-the-usa-such-an-ordeal/
24
chicago,
Expected timeframe of 2 years equals what in reality… 4-5 years?
25
Does your busy day ever allow you to post about the hypocrisy from democrats? You truly are pathetic in every sense of the word.
We did have a spending problem in the past; we do in the future; we will in the present no matter which gang color is in the white house and congress. What else would you call never balancing a budget for 50 years?
26 – I was reading that on Barry’s blog the other day and I came across this link on his site, interesting stuff:
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2009/02/why-you-cant-buy-new-car-online
Perhaps it’s true that the reason for the second amendment is so that the police cannot just oppress a whole town, (like they do in China), or so that a Hitler cannot take over the whole country. But I cannot think of any armed rebellions that ever worked, at least in the US. I am curious about what would have happened at the Tiananmen Square event if Chinese citizens had been armed – there was a lot of popular support for the students, and I suspect the people would have better protected them. Maybe an armed populace could have changed Chinese history. But for the most part, countries get the leaders they deserve, and a minority of people with small arms will be unable to overcome the stupidity of the majority.
If I lived near Cobbler, where starving people regularly camp out on people’s front yards, I’d want a gun.
28 – I am still waiting for your response on when you were schooled with “stupid, stupider, stupidest.” Have you been formulating it all this time?
Grim [29];
Nice sub-head on that article:
“Blame Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and the influential car-dealer lobby.”
Two reliable bleats — “Reagan did it!” and blame GWB. It never gets old for them, does it.
Spectacular hollow response because you don’t have a leg to stand on within the topic.
Apparently your memory is as awful as your deductive reasoning; I was the one who said it was ‘most stupid’ and not ‘stupidest’.
Carry on
29 – read some of it. it says “it will never change” but maybe there will be a way some day.
my last two cars (brand new) were acquired completely over the phone and delivered to my home. never set foot in the dealer. these were through a leasing agent; i ended up buying one off of lease and the other is in 2nd year.
33 – exactly…and you were PROVEN WRONG.
and then you crawled away.
[26] Buying a new car is easy. I think the most important thing you can do is know exactly what you want and what you will pay and always be ready to buy or walk out. Also, never, ever, ever, say you are trading a car in until you are about to sign the contract. It’s the only way to really know what they will give you on the trade and always be flexible enough to not trade in your old car if the deal you have on the new car is good on price. You also want to be the only fish in the barrel so that you can wear the sales team out without keeping them from completing other sales. Mid week during the day is a great time to go to the dealer or any rainy evening. That said, I’ve only ever bought 6 brand new cars, but I’ve enjoyed the process every time.
can you elaborate on this:
Also, never, ever, ever, say you are trading a car in until you are about to sign the contract.
[21] dope
Not that it’s any of your business, but they are for all lawful purposes.
40 – drats! i will know have to report back to Central that I was unable to perform the interrogation to obtain the information necessary.
whoops…39
[33] Joyce,
Don’t feed the trolls. I realize that his substance and logic-free method of argument is infuriating and wouldnt pass the Billy Madison test, but remember the goal in responding to snark: you aren’t trying to convince him, you are trying to convince everyone else.
[40] dope,
Get used to disappointment.
One man can do a lot of damage on his own. Just ask citizens of Granby, Colorado about Marvin Heemeyer.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f50_1171980725
30.Ragnar says:
January 11, 2013 at 9:33 am
Perhaps it’s true that the reason for the second amendment is so that the police cannot just oppress a whole town, (like they do in China), or so that a Hitler cannot take over the whole country. But I cannot think of any armed rebellions that ever worked, at least in the US. I am curious about what would have happened at the Tiananmen Square event if Chinese citizens had been armed – there was a lot of popular support for the students, and I suspect the people would have better protected them. Maybe an armed populace could have changed Chinese history. But for the most part, countries get the leaders they deserve, and a minority of people with small arms will be unable to overcome the stupidity of the majority.
If I lived near Cobbler, where starving people regularly camp out on people’s front yards, I’d want a gun.
[38]dope
Dealers make money on trade in, financing, and extras. If they think they can make money there, they may give more on price. But I disagree with expat. I would leave it out there but not commit, and when they lowball the trade in value, take it off the table. Same for financing.
[44]brian,
I don’t recall this. But one foot armor???? Damn.
42 – says the guy who claims to be prepping for Armageddon
[20] grim,
I’m pretty sure he was kidding.
“If they think they can make money there, they may give more on price.”
so why withhold it? if they get to their “i talked to my manager and this is our bottom number” does expat think they will then drop more when you bring in the trade-in?
46 –
The you tube videos are incredible. They show him demolishing municipal buildings in town and firing guns from turrets within the homemade “tank”. Apparently it was over some dispute with other local business owners and the township over use of his property.
[47]. Dope
Prove it. If you followed my writing, you’d know that there is a profound difference between Armageddon and the event scenarios I feel are probable.
Nom
Schabadoo! I don’t even bother anymore.
[38] dope – Sure. As Lib has recently experienced, they will always try to burn you on the trade. The profit margin on used vehicles is much higher and they can and will make thousands on your trade in an make perhaps only hundreds on the new vehicle you are buying. Because of this they will artificially drop “the price” of your new vehicle because they are going to make their real net profit by underpaying for your trade-in. Same thing goes for financing. You should always be a 100% cash buyer during price negotiations. They can’t play any games when you’re a cash buyer, the price is the price. Then when it’s all written up you can say, “Now that I think about it, maybe I will trade in my 2006 Whatevermobile, what will you give me on the trade?” (you should know the fair market value from Edmunds or KBB, of course)
can you elaborate on this:
Also, never, ever, ever, say you are trading a car in until you are about to sign the contract.
[49] dope
My point exactly. as I pointed out, i don’t agree with expats approach.
50 – that is some classic shit.
there was a HUGE run on killdozers after that incident. luckily i had stock in the three major killdozer manufacturers and scored. remember when the NKA said that the only way to prevent this would be to have a killdozer in every home and school? thank god we all have killdozers and events like this have become few and far between. my best investment over the last decade has been the 5 killdozers i bought…for lawful purposes.
53 – makes sense. thanks.
“To the extent that you can pay somebody less to do the same job somebody else is doing, without hurting revenue, you are better off,” said Sandler O’Neill + Partners analyst Jeff Harte.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324081704578231520241146106.html
So if you are a cash buyer, should you be negotiating under the premise of a making a trade when you don’t intend to? Do you act like a sucker on the trade, accepting their first offer, while continuing to negotiate down the price of the new car?
Dope,
I can find countless example saying my superlative form is correct, others saying it’s wrong, others saying both are acceptable.
What dream world do you live in that I ‘crawled away’. You are crazy.
http://languageandgrammar.com/2008/05/09/stupid-grammar-error/
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/stupid
[45] Nom – Sure, there are lots of ways you can play it. I just like to blind side them with the trade at the last minute. This is another reason I always shop when no one else is around. People complain about how *long* it takes at the dealer to buy a car, I’m in it for the long haul. Sales people can’t wait until I leave and they’re the ones who are wrung out in the end. At the same time, I want to be respectful of their need to earn a living so I don’t want to keep them from making other sales by spending 5 hours with me to make $200 when there are easier marks on the lot. Here’s another trick, haven’t used it since I lived in NJ: Sign the contract, write them a deposit check and have them write a 24 hour exclusion on the deal so that you can come back the next day and get your check back if you change your mind. Take the completed contract to a competing dealer and hand it to the salesman and tell them to beat that price. I’ve had dealers give me a car like the one I want and tell me, “Take your girlfriend out to lunch and come back in 2 hours and we’ll see what we can do.”
Dealers make money on trade in, financing, and extras. If they think they can make money there, they may give more on price. But I disagree with expat. I would leave it out there but not commit, and when they lowball the trade in value, take it off the table. Same for financing.
Ragnar
Whiskey rebellion while not successful through violence effected rise of the Republican party and eventually led to Jeffersons election and repeal of the whiskey tax.
Texas revolution for independence from Mexico
Only two I can think of from the top of my head
[60] I wore one salesman out on a cold rainy fall Friday evening buying a black convertible sports car. I already had him down from $25K list to ~$21k and then I just kept harping about the psychological barrier of paying more than $20K for an impractical sports car. I got him under $20K eventually and I’m sure he left the business shortly thereafter.
How rich are you?? I have never bought a new car in my life. I did buy two new cars for my wife under duress. I dont enjoy. Then of all things after buying my wifes new car in 2005 I get invited to a work thing a week later where I have to drive and wifes are invited. Guess what I pull up to even and I get from bosses the old how rich am I, who can afford a new car. My then boss said I wish I was rich enough to afford a new car, I buy mine of craigs list and ebay. Paying an extra 15K just to get a wiff of new car smell for five minutes is a luxury only rich people can afford.
End of story Boss at time made 5 million a year. Then to make matters worse I though he was busting my chops and a few weeks later I get invited to second work thing and I pull up right next to CEOs cars who was getting out. A used like 1999 Dodge Caravan, I think he made like $50 million a year or something crazy. I got that look like I must be paying you too much. Next year I still had my old beat up Sable Station wagon with a dirty car fax!!! I took that baby out and I was rolling, wish I was rich enough to buy a car off ebay, I got this baby at auction, three collisions with other vehicles on title to boot. Man that was rolling.
I still swear I bet those guys had some type of 7 series, fancy cars at own and always take station car or kids car to events. Going to borrow that POS inlaws wagon I used for a month during hurricane next time. It has red peeling paint and a salvage title. NICE. I be making bacon come bonus time with that baby. I say my pull up alone in that car is a lot of fat stacks come bonus time.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
January 11, 2013 at 9:42 am
[26] Buying a new car is easy. I think the most important thing you can do is know exactly what you want and what you will pay and always be ready to buy or walk out. Also, never, ever, ever, say you are trading a car in until you are about to sign the contract. It’s the only way to really know what they will give you on the trade and always be flexible enough to not trade in your old car if the deal you have on the new car is good on price. You also want to be the only fish in the barrel so that you can wear the sales team out without keeping them from completing other sales. Mid week during the day is a great time to go to the dealer or any rainy evening. That said, I’ve only ever bought 6 brand new cars, but I’ve enjoyed the process every time.
The purchase contract is a starting point. Works better on a used car. I always new or used try to back out. Wait till last minute in ny 48 hours and try to back out. Do it when dealer is crowded and talk loud. They usually give you a deal.
At auction I did it. man that was fun we jewd guy down in the 60 second lane way too much. My friend always says too much is bad, anyhow I got my mad stacks with me. Think I had 12k, got the car for $8,300, guy took the trade in at $10,300. Guy on way to desk to settle up had a siezure, starts yelling, jerk said second key mats are not included and took them, tried to take jack too, finally we threw guy $200 extra he calmed down but sob still took second key to spite me. Was like I drove this pos 60 miles to auciton to lose $1,800. FU if I ever see you trading in something I will screw you.
So hope into car, with key friend slaps temp late on and goes lets floor it out of here in case he comes after us. No time to even check if thing has oil in it.
Buddy the car dealer goes man you just got a 18 month old car with 8K miles on it that new was 22k for $8,500. Man was that guy pissed. Dope did not even realize in that 60 second auction we were together. Good thing you aint coming back for three years to get another car. Thank god I am six two two hundred pounds and we had a tire iron with us.
New car dealers you cant win like that.
[63] JJ – My wife and I are in a decadent part of our lives where we buy a brand new car every 10 years whether we need one or not (and we hang onto the old one too). I buy new because I break in my engines fast so they run that way. I’ve never had an engine failure on a car I’ve bought new. If I drive out of a dealership with a car that has 7 miles on the clock you can bet dollars to doughnuts that I will redline shift it 6 or 7 times before it gets to 25 miles on the odo. Most people experience problems (at least back when cars weren’t as good as they are now) with a used car a short time after buying it because of a new driving style. It’s not how the car was broken in and the car experiences different mechanical stresses than it was subject to for the last X thousand miles. If you want your cars to run fast, you have to break them in fast. Nobody takes an Indy car motor and babies it for X thousand miles, before “opening it up”. The only thing that needs a little bit of babying is the clutch. I won’t do any full throttle burn-outs on a new clutch, but it’s good to go at about 1000 miles. I used to change the oil at 1000 miles and switch to Mobil 1 synthetic at about 5,000 miles. Now with 0W-20 engine oil, the tolerances are so tight you can just skip the 1000 mile oil change and just switch to Mobil 1 at 5K and then change it every 5K and the motor will run forever.
Paying an extra 15K just to get a wiff of new car smell for five minutes is a luxury only rich people can afford.
I got 180,000 miles on my 2002 merc c240.Hoping to get near 300,000 miles.I put in 20000 miles a year.Milking the mileage on the 2011 bmw to reach the 4 year 50,000 miles warranty.After that I will put miles on that b*tch
New car smell – Our 2011 came with the optional “all-weather” rubber mats from the dealer, but it also came with the standard carpeted mats which were in plastic in the trunk. This past summer I figured why not put the nice carpeted mats in for the nice weather and, guess what? Standard mats are loaded with new car smell, it was like having a new car two years in a row. Maybe I’ll just keep ordering new mats every Spring.
A common problem that people have is that they conflate the trade in value and the loan value at the same time they are negotiating the new car value. A salesman can do a lot of damage to you if you don’t have a really good handle on those three things. That is why it is recommended that you only negotiate one at a time, in order, to get to the final deal.
First, determine the price of the car you are buying, second determine how much they will give you for trade in value, next negotiate financing.
If you have no trade in and are all cash then the process gets a lot simpler and you can handle it nicely. Thats why they suggest that you don’t talk trade in value first. In my last car purchase I was all cash with trade in and I didn’t bring the vehicle with me when visiting dealerships. They would ask “so do you have a trade in” and I would reply “I’m going to have too many cars after I buy this one and you guys are welcome to throw offers my way but lets not get ahead of ourselves as I’m not going to sell my old one until I get a new one. Lets talk more about the price of that new car.”
I would suggest that you contact a few dealerships to get cold “sight unseen” prices for your trade in vehicle. Most will give you a trade in value even if you are not buying a new car with them. Also consult internet for private sale values to give you an idea on the “top” of the market.
Financing is the last big hurdle. I haven’t financed a car in many years so I wouldn’t know how to deal with this one. All I can tell you is the negotiation process gets a lot easier when you walk in with your checkbook.
[58] grim – If you pull your trade off the table they are within their rights to rescind the price. I had a dealer do it to me on financing. I was buying a Toyota MR2 and told them I would finance it as they were offering 0% financing. When they wrote it up the interest wasn’t 0% and I called them on it and they said that only $8K was financed at 0% at that was the upper limit of the promotion. I said fine, I’ll finance the $8K at 0% and I’ll pay the rest in cash. They wouldn’t do the deal (this was mid 80’s when interest rates were quite high) if I brought more cash to the table. That was actually the time I signed the deal and took it to another dealer for a better price. The first dealer wanted to sell me the *exact* car that I test drove *so bad* because they thought I ruined it on the test drive. I don’t think the salesperson had ever seen 7500rpm shifts , 4 wheel drifts or trailing throttle line correction before;-)
So if you are a cash buyer, should you be negotiating under the premise of a making a trade when you don’t intend to? Do you act like a sucker on the trade, accepting their first offer, while continuing to negotiate down the price of the new car?
[68] Nicholas – If you have to finance (I agree with JJ, you shouldn’t. Buy a car you can afford) your best bet is to bring your own from a credit union. That way you can just negotiate like it’s cash. The 0% to lower than your credit union rates promotions are what throws a wrench in that plan.
Financing is the last big hurdle. I haven’t financed a car in many years so I wouldn’t know how to deal with this one. All I can tell you is the negotiation process gets a lot easier when you walk in with your checkbook.
New car smell = poison gas……seriously…..
The Original NJ ExPat says:
January 11, 2013 at 10:59 am
New car smell – Our 2011 came with the optional “all-weather” rubber mats from the dealer, but it also came with the standard carpeted mats which were in plastic in the trunk. This past summer I figured why not put the nice carpeted mats in for the nice weather and, guess what? Standard mats are loaded with new car smell, it was like having a new car two years in a row. Maybe I’ll just keep ordering new mats every Spring.
JJ #3,
In the PITI equation, when the “PI” part is zero, but the “TI” is still large, is the resident of the house still a “home owner”? My take is, we never “own” it, we have a life time lease, but have to pay a form of rent, even if our income goes to zero.
S
71 chifi… seconding… too many carcinogens from new carpets. When we got a new car in ’06 Dec, I was driving with all windows down for a few days…
72 – If you have no “PI”, the last “I” is optional. That leaves “T”, which everyone pays, including renters.
All things equivalent, the renter will pay more in rent for the same house than you are paying in taxes.
[55] dope,
Well, as long as they are lawfully purchased and used, no problem.
And when you need help making sure to avoid excessive taxes on the sale of your killdozers (they are for investment, after all), let me know.
moose (14)-
Arming yourself to the teeth is first and foremost a survival play.
[72] McD – Exactly right. It is a lifetime, transferable, lease. If we universally started calling property tax “town rent” there would be a lot less people inclined to “buy” houses. “I’d like to get a lifetime lease in Ridgewood, but the town rent is too high and they raise it every single year!”
JJ #3,
In the PITI equation, when the “PI” part is zero, but the “TI” is still large, is the resident of the house still a “home owner”? My take is, we never “own” it, we have a life time lease, but have to pay a form of rent, even if our income goes to zero.
S
[55] dope
Explains why the neighbors bought a kubota. Never could figure out why they would want to uparmor a front end loader though.
[76] ernest,
Remember, you are in New Jersey. To paraphrase a judge who denied a friend’s carry permit “you aren’t entited to any more survival than the next person.” (substitute “self-defense” for survival and that was the judge’s verbatim quote).
Come to think of it, I think that the judge was Dope.
[74] grim – A-Duh.
All things equivalent, the renter will pay more in rent for the same house than you are paying in taxes.
80 – Just checking, because you seem to have forgotten that in your post at 78.
Killdozers don’t kill municipal buildings. People do.
[76] money,
I agree with moose. It can be a commodity play. I did buy more ammo than I would use in target shooting because I expected times like this. And I may take advantage and (if legal) privately sell some of it because the shelves are bare and fear is high. I’ll even sell some to dope–his money is green.
Grim,
The renter will pay T plus more the entire time, correct?
While the home-buyer will pay PITI for several years, and then just T (and maybe I), plus maint. the entire time.
Without some concrete numbers, I’m not sure who makes out better from a pure financial perspective. Quality of life, etc, is a whole other story.
grim says:
January 11, 2013 at 11:38 am
72 – If you have no “PI”, the last “I” is optional. That leaves “T”, which everyone pays, including renters.
All things equivalent, the renter will pay more in rent for the same house than you are paying in taxes.
[82] brian,
I remember some guy in San Diego got hold of a tank and went on a rampage, crushing cars. And I don’t think it was some vintage tank, I think it was an Abrams. But I’m not sure. Will have to google it.
Anyway, he died of lead poisoning when cops got on top and found he hadn’t dogged down the turret hatch.
x-pat [65]
Absolutely no need to change Mobil 1 every 5K miles unless you are towing a mobile home over tundra most of the time. In a today’s engine it is good for at least 10K miles. Don’t use cheap oil filters though.
When was this, recently? Isn’t it pathetic (in NJ and may-issue states), that the right to bear arms has been interpreted to be zero. I’m sure most here know that in NJ, there is no open carry or concealed carry, just carry which will be denied by the local sheriff every time. Unless you work for the firm that provides security to someone special, or retired police, etc
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
January 11, 2013 at 11:43 am
[76] ernest,
Remember, you are in New Jersey. To paraphrase a judge who denied a friend’s carry permit “you aren’t entited to any more survival than the next person.” (substitute “self-defense” for survival and that was the judge’s verbatim quote).
Come to think of it, I think that the judge was Dope.
[23] carlito,
Explains why my kids look like native americans.
[87] joyce,
It was 4 or 5 years ago I think. The applicant was a friend of mine from my former firm. I wasn’t there but he maintains that was a direct quote and it just floored him.
Me want Killdozer.
If the local militia was allowed to own artillery, there wouldn’t have been a problem.
Cleetus, come quick, Willy damn near gone crazy, and bring the cannon! Yee haw!
Ok, I had to google that after I posted, I guess you can own artillery. I can’t believe the shit you find online…
http://www.buckstix.com/howitzer.htm
Shot a 8 point buck with a 12 pound howitzer.
I’ll be well armed for the next war of northern aggression.
[92] grim,
Shooting deer with a vintage howitzer??? Cannot imagine that there’d be much left.
Joyce anyone who leaves there house in NJ with a legally owned firearem whether to hunt or shoot targets are considered criminals in this state.
I was shook down on route 15 a while back on my way to go hunt with my muzzleloader. In the event that you don’t know what one is think civil war or Davy Crocket. Pour powder down the barrel, then lead ball, then have to put a cap on it to make it go boom. My crime I was driving the speed limit through Jefferson. My mistake did not have my FID on me but was in possession of a current hunting license on my way to hunting grounds with a cased un loaded weapon(totally legal). The stasi representative after a long lecture on the nature of the “gun” in my truck, an education on NJ gun laws regarding hunting, and eventual talk with his shift supervisor who pulled up in the interim finally let me out of the back of the cruiser and on my merry way with a warning. If I didn’t comply sure I would be rotting in Rahway to this day
That is the nature of gun laws in this state. That will also soon be the nature of gun laws in this country. Welcome to the decline.
[90] ernest,
Sure that’s all you want? How about dope’s address? You can’t get to moose–the bridges aren’t rated for killdozers.
There’s a lot of good car buying advice being shared here.
I can add that you must learn the price of the car you are buying, long before you even enter the showroom. When buying a new car, I first go to KBB get the invoice. I also use TrueCar with a fake phone number and junk email address to find out what others are paying. My goal is to get the dealer profit down to $250 over invoice. You should also find out online what real incentives the manufacturer has available. I always hit them with the I’ll most likely pay cash early on in the negotiations. Also mention that you are willing to make the purchase today (they get a little incentive for that). Once you get that final number within $250 of invoice minus incentives, then ask them to look at the trade.
You must also know the value of the trade before heading to the dealer. Edmunds and KBB offer free numbers that are pretty dead on. You can also look at closed Ebay auctions, but keep in mind, Ebay prices will most likely be at least one grand more than what any dealer will give you. YOU are doing the work as an Ebay seller. Make sure you mention those new tires, recent tuneups, full tank of gas, etc. Threaten to sell the car on Ebay and then claim that you’ll come back once the trade is sold. This will typically get you to KBB value pretty quickly.
Threaten to get competitors pricing often. They hate that. Waste as much time as possible. They hate that too. Also, get up to leave at least twice during negotiations. Finally, when you are down to the last $300 or so in difference and the sales manager hits you with the “split the difference” price, say “you won’t lose this sale over $150 will you?” If they continue to fight, get up to leave.
Financing portion is easy. Just say no immediately. Tell them that unless they sell you the warranty for $100 a year or less, you don’t want it. On average, the warranty costs a dealer $91 per year. Also, spend some time with loan calculators to see if financing a loan outside of the dealer will get you the cash discount price. Personally, I’ve found that the finance guy has a connection at a particular bank which gets him a token commission ($50) in exchange for an excellent rate. On the CX-9 he got us a better rate than what we could find on our own.
Finally, look out for silly high doc fees. Also make sure delivery charge was negotiated into original price and not added again on final bill. Look out for the etch charge and absolutely deny it. They will not lose the sale over a service that cost them probably 5 minutes of unskilled labor to perform. Always call their bluff. Also, pay as much as you can with reward credit cards, though most limit Amex much more than they do with MC/Visa and they will let you combine the two. Obviously, this only works if you are putting money down.
I always buy last year’s models. Typically it saves you $5K or so. I am also not picky about colors. I like to buy my cars stripped of options (more crap to break and have to get repaired) but like to add an aftermarket stereo since stock stereos are always garbage.
Ultimately, the key is to know price before you get there. TrueCar is invaluable for this. With that said, I would bet TrueCar gets shut down within a year or so!
Good luck shoppers.
Equity mutual funds recorded the second-highest inflows on record in the first week of the year as stocks rallied on signs that the global economy is gaining momentum.
The great rotation from bonds to stocks has begun!!!
When we get to budget talks in a few weeks we may have a few down days then off to races. But on dips, cult of equity it is all back!!!
Stocks are at a five year high!!!
Anyone who did not lose his job last five year, maxed out 401K, 529s etc has to be one happy camper.
Like I always say if you invest as little as 5k a month in a appreciating asset it only takes 5-10 years to amass a lot of money
#92… That guy seems to have some cool cat pics:
“Next, we’ll test how far you can shoot a Feral Kitty – 4 weeks old is perfect bore size.”
401k statement in the mail today was an eye popper.
nflows returned to the market for municipal bond mutual funds with a vengeance, at $1.55 billion for the week ended Jan. 9.
Mo Money Mo MOney
“http://nj1015.com/nj-schools-would-have-emergency-alerts-under-new-bill-audio/”
Oy vey.
More 1st graders will die this week from the flu than were killed at Newtown. Perhaps that money could be better spent on vaccination information. Certainly it would save so many more of our precious children.
We are a nation of pussies. We are going to send ourselves to third world status over all of our security concerns before we know it.
99-
Companies still send mail? That’s an eye popper.
Always encourage paper statements. You’ll keep me working.
[98] S
I had to go back and read it to see what you were talking about. Sick.
And if Dope is reading, I love it and can’t wait to try it out!
[101] libtard
“More 1st graders will die this week from the flu than were killed at Newtown.”
Sure know how to skeeve a guy out, don’t you?
cobbler-86-I change the oil at 5K for time and number of starts, not miles. I drive less than 10K miles a year (~85% city driving) and the 5K interval works out nicely with my change over to/from my winter wheels and tires as we take longer trips in the winter. It’s not even very much money as Mobil 1 AFE 0W-20 is only ~$25 in the 5 quart container at Walmart. I’ve been to Walmart twice in the last year, both times to buy Mobil 1. I only use the OEM filter from the dealer and I even use a new crush washer at each change. Yeah, I’m that kind of engineer.
x-pat [65]
Absolutely no need to change Mobil 1 every 5K miles unless you are towing a mobile home over tundra most of the time. In a today’s engine it is good for at least 10K miles. Don’t use cheap oil filters though.
104 – not surprising that you want to shoot a cat load out of a cannon; it makes total sense.
We would prefer to shoot you but I don’t have circus cannon laying around and i don’t think you would fit in a howitzer.
grim – If you’re saying that cost of renting is more expensive than owning so long as you disregard the purchase price,… I concur.
The Original NJ ExPat says:
January 11, 2013 at 11:44 am
[74] grim – A-Duh.
All things equivalent, the renter will pay more in rent for the same house than you are paying in taxes.
grim says:
January 11, 2013 at 11:46 am
80 – Just checking, because you seem to have forgotten that in your post at 78.
108 – that’s sweet. can you tell me why?
Say your house is paid off. Is it better to stay and pay property taxes in NJ or sell and rent.
109.The Original NJ ExPat says:
January 11, 2013 at 2:48 pm
grim – If you’re saying that cost of renting is more expensive than owning so long as you disregard the purchase price,… I concur.
[110] dope,
Because we want to redistribute your beer.
he said he wants to shoot me out of a circus cannon, not to kill me. i will still maintain my possessions after i landed from the cannon shot.
Lib,
1. I thought you said the stealership quoted your Xterra trade in at Kars 4 Kids levels and not KBB.
2. At some point you have to ask yourself, do you want to go through this cr*p again next weekend over $150. I would imagine there’s more room to screw you on trade in. 10% of even the worst junker > $150. I’d rather, genuinely, walk over BS doc fees.
post 101 – cue Earnest in three…two….
Daimler Leading Bond Sales in U.S. to Busiest Week Since March
So massive inflow into equities, muni bonds and corporates the week. Car sales are flying along even home sales are moving along.
A sea of liquidity is out there. Back in late 08 there were fire sales to raise cash, now cash is a curse. All that SANDY money is a pain too, folks cashing mad Jessie Pinkton style fat stacks of cash. I hate hearing over and over from folks I dont know what to do with my cash. I guess go all walter white and buy a car wash or something.
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
January 11, 2013 at 12:20 pm
[92] grim, Shooting deer with a vintage howitzer??? Cannot imagine that there’d be much left.
This morning on Route 34 in Colts Neck a truck must have hit a deer…..what was left on the road approximated this……
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjEdLuqK1RQ
Say your house is paid off. Is it better to stay and pay property taxes in NJ or sell and rent.
Running through excel now, but Stay and Pay seems to be more cost effective. Keep in mind the deductibility of property taxes if you itemize, that lowers the annual housing cost on the buy side. On the flip side, you’d need to invest the entire proceeds from the sale at something like 7 or 8% annually to offset the additional rental cost.
The challenge here is you are exchanging a relatively risky position trying to get a 7-8% annual yield versus the relatively stable housing situation to attempt to equalize the rent case, we’re not even talking about the rental case being a net benefit.
However, there are numerous caveats and simplifications in my case. Assuming no annual appreciation, assuming no market distortions, etc. For example, using numbers from back in 2005, for example, sell and rent was clearly the best course of action.
[111] Brian – You run the numbers and make the decision that best suits your future. In BC high taxes in places like Glen Rock are the vig for good schools and two train lines. If you’re an empty nester who is sick of NYC is it worth $2000/month before maintenance and utilities to stay in a house with empty bedrooms? Personally, I don’t like the idea of ever paying monthly taxes that are akin to prices I’ve rented nice houses for. Living in New England since late ’97 after spending all my prior life in NJ, I don’t see any attraction to owning in NJ again. When I tell colleagues that my entire family pays $15K-$25K in property taxes on their homes in NJ, I’m sure some don’t believe me as it just doesn’t compute up here where “expensive” property taxes are anything over $8K. The view of NJ from the outside, to me anyway, is just oppressive. What other state doesn’t have a large city that’s desirable to live in?
Say your house is paid off. Is it better to stay and pay property taxes in NJ or sell and rent.
109.The Original NJ ExPat says:
January 11, 2013 at 2:48 pm
grim – If you’re saying that cost of renting is more expensive than owning so long as you disregard the purchase price,… I concur.
[118] BTW, all the friends of my in-laws in Glen Rock (ex Wall Streeters, mostly) are right now or have in the last couple years sold their houses. Many of them have been on the waiting list for some Senior housing in Glen Rock that I’m unfamiliar with. They want to stay in the town, but they don’t want their houses anymore.
[113] dope,
Doesn’t matter. You should give up your beer for the greater good. Thought you were down with redistribution?
Currently, there is one senior housing area in Glen Rock. Since opening for renters in 1986, the 80-unit Glen Courts senior housing community on Glen Avenue has not had a vacancy. The current waiting list of potential renters at the facility includes 90 Glen Rock residents, 30 former Glen Rock residents, 36 parents of Glen Rock residents, and 113 other people who have no direct affiliation with the borough. That amounts to 269 people who want to live in senior housing in Glen Rock.
http://www.northjersey.com/news/87431042_Senior_housingoptionsmulled.html
dope didn’t say where we would shoot you to. Looting well your ilk like to loot us productive folks so I think it is only fair.
Nom wife got me basic brewing kit and malt extract from one of the local places for my birthday. so my first batch is going to be this spring, maybe the chemistry/microbiology background will finally come in handy.
Painhrtz. I have an important microbrew thing to tell you.
We should all drink SURGEPROTECTOR beer in next few weeks. The Barrier Brewing Company was a Brewery leveled by Sandy in Long Island, Beer is being sold to rebuild brewery and help folks rebuild homes.
Here’s who contributed to the flavor of Surge Protector IPA:
Barrier Brewing Company
Blind Bat Brewery
Blue Point Brewing Company
Great South Bay Brewery
Greenport Harbor Brewing Company
Long Ireland Beer Company
Port Jeff Brewing Company
Spider Bite Beer Company
Krommydas said half of the proceeds made from the sale of Surge Protector will go to Barrier Brewing Company, while the other half will be donated to Long Island Cares, a food bank dedicated to help Sandy victims.
http://surfbang.com/local/2013/01/hurricane-sandy-relief-beer-project-produces-surge-protector-ipa.html
Painhrtz – Not like you can dust for vomit says:
Nom wife got me basic brewing kit and malt extract from one of the local places for my birthday. so my first batch is going to be this spring, maybe the chemistry/microbiology background will finally come in handy.
Expat I was thinking about it because I’m wondering what the best situation would be for my mother. Right now she pays just shy of 6k in taxes/yr.
pain (108)-
If you give me 15 minutes, I guarantee I can stuff dope into a Howitzer.
…although it would probably be more fun (and less tragic) to shoot him out of one of those clown-ass cannons at the fair.
Speechless….
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2013/01/four_year_death_investigation.html
nom: my e-mail is down…..pls contact me via texting area code 917
then the rest of it is 6968949
U-Haul, going down the drain? My wife and I were just talking about the viability of U-Haul. When we were moving from Long Island to NH we used to love U-Haul. We had a class III hitch on our ’72 El Camino and used to pull the biggest box they had over a couple months to a storage we still have in NH. At first we thought it would be cheaper to drop off the 6′ x 12′ x 6′ double axle trailer in NH, but it was actually cheaper to rent it as an “in town move” and bring it back to LI. I think something like $34 for the weekend and we towed 5000 lb. of stuff to NH, deposited it in storage and then hauled the empty trailer (1800 lb. empty) back. We used to stop off in Newport on the way up and have a quiet night and nice dinner there at my sister’s rental house on Tuesday and Thursday as none of her NY friends were there mid-week. We used to take off back to LI on Friday as the first of her friends were arriving for the weekend. Down at Flo’s you could get 1-1/4 lb. cull lobsters and pitchers of Bud for $5 each. Good times, good times.
Brian – for retirees it’s a never-ending struggle. $6k a year is $500/month. That’s her vig to the town, Sparta, right? Where does she want to live and who does she want to be near is the question. Sussex is pretty cheap and there are a lot of options. Maybe something other than a SFH is better for your mother?
Expat I was thinking about it because I’m wondering what the best situation would be for my mother. Right now she pays just shy of 6k in taxes/yr.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=ebd_1191471287
Zieb 114.
“I thought you said the stealership quoted your Xterra trade in at Kars 4 Kids levels and not KBB.”
Salesdork quoted me $2,500 originally for the trad. I immediately told him that we were so far apart that we were leaving. He said he could do $3,000 tops I got them up to $4,500 and the last $500 required a second attempt at leaving. Though I think I left about $250 on the table, but I had a lunch date to get to (really). When it was all said and done, got the car price for $1,600 less than I thought I could. Figured I could swing $5,000 on the trade. Ended up with $4,500. Still figure I came out at least $1,000 ahead of where I thought I would have originally finished.
$500 a month?
Good luck.
Camden, Newark, Irvington, Paterson?
She would need to come up, maybe closer to $1000.
118
Immediate, cursory candidates re: states without a desirable city to live in:
Connecticut, Delaware, New Hampshire, Alabama, Mississippi, N and S Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Oklahoma, W Virginia, Ohio
[134]caljn
I can vouch for NH and CT. Concord is not bad but it’s more like a small town. As for AL, a friend just moved from Philly to Birmingham and he’s loving it.
everyone ….Need a little help …I live in little Silver ,Waterfront where the taxes are high Our town just had a reassessment which ended ended Oct 1 ..we all know how much destruction Sandy caused .Little Silver Point rd homes were damaged ,some beyond repaid some condemned ( http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Flittlesilver.patch.com%2Farticles%2Fphotos-gallery-hurricane-destruction-in-little-silver%23photo-11984693&h=hAQEsucJA )Dec 30 we received our new assessment most in town were up 25% however all waterfront valuations went 45% to 90% …our sales ratio was 75% at the time so the new numbers looked way out of line .The town is not relenting and saying the assesment was done and the final numbers will come out soon ….Well it appears panic in on the street one home that was reassessed 1.4 mil is up for sale 499K ..http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/512-Little-Silver-Point-Rd-Little-Silver-NJ-07739/39284047_zpid/ …my real question is are reassessments set in stone ,or are tar and feathers in order here ?
[134] & [135] NH – Nobody likes Portsmouth? CT is a good call though. I know two families from NJ who relocated to Lincoln, Nebraska and love it. One of my friends sold his $800K house in Mountain Lakes right at the top of the bubble and bought a $200K house in Lincoln, so he really loves it. I guess what I really meant by my original comment was, “Can you think of another state where no way, no how, would you move your family to any of it’s 3 biggest cities?” If you took the 3 biggest cities of every state and you listed them side by side, you would be hard pressed to beat the crap trifecta of Newark, Trenton, and Camden.
caljn says:
January 11, 2013 at 10:07 pm
118
Immediate, cursory candidates re: states without a desirable city to live in:
Connecticut, Delaware, New Hampshire, Alabama, Mississippi, N and S Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Oklahoma, W Virginia, Ohio
Comrade Nom Deplume, plotting his moves for 2013 says:
January 11, 2013 at 10:44 pm
[134]caljn
I can vouch for NH and CT. Concord is not bad but it’s more like a small town. As for AL, a friend just moved from Philly to Birmingham and he’s loving it.
[133] Grim – $500/month isn’t her monthly nut, it’s her vig for the privilege to pay the rest of her monthly nut.
$500 a month?
Good luck.
Camden, Newark, Irvington, Paterson?
She would need to come up, maybe closer to $1000.
[137] Wow. NJ’s most populous cities:
1.Newark
2. Jersey City
3. Paterson
4. Elizabeth
5. Edison
according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states%27_largest_cities_by_population , anyway.
137
Of course I understand your point about moving a family into a state’s 3 largest cities, though most people move their families to suburban areas, where NJ rather excels.
And your friend is probably doing a fair amount of convincing himself…there is a reason that house in Lincoln, NE costs only $200K at the height of the market.
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