From Bloomberg:
Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Rise More Than Forecast
Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes climbed more than forecast in January, a sign the industry will keep strengthening this year.
The index of pending home resales increased 4.5 percent to 105.9, the highest level since April 2010, after a revised 1.9 percent drop the prior month, a report from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 1.9 percent advance.
…
“Things are getting better in housing,” Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, said before the report. JPMorgan was the second-best forecaster of pending home sales over the past two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “Low mortgage rates, an improving economy and an improving job market are helping demand. With home prices rising, most people who’d waited for prices to bottom will want to buy now.”
From HousingWire:
Pending home sales hit two-year high: NAR
Pending home sales rose in January and continued a 21-month trend of growing from year ago levels, the National Association of Realtors said.
The company’s latest pending home sales index suggests the housing recovery is gaining momentum.
The January NAR Pending Home Sales Index hit its highest reading since April 2010 when the index reached 110.9. Aside from spikes induced by homebuyer tax credits in 2010, the last index high before 2010 occurred in February 2007 when NAR’s index reached 107.9, the association said.
The NAR pending home sales index – which measure contract signings on homes – increased 4.5% to 105.9 in January, compared to a score of 101.3 in December. That index score is also still 9.5% above January 2012 when the index hovered at 96.7.
The data reflects only signed contracts, not actual property closings.
Inventory is the key to this year’s housing market, said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.
Frist m’fer
Interesting article discussing the borrowing cost/price correlation we discussed last week.
http://ochousingnews.com/news/future-housing-markets-will-be-very-interest-rate-sensitive?source=Patrick.net
2 – A model that doesn’t take into account the psychology of market participants just isn’t complete.
That is the reason why the Fed can not engineer another housing bubble right now, it doesn’t matter how low rates are, and how easy credit is, the buyer/seller psychology is all wrong.
There is a reason housing bubbles take place in 10-20 year cycles, that’s how long it takes to forget.
All it takes me to forget is eight Knob Creeks.
Clot [10];
If you get the Maker’s Mark 2013 batch, it will take you 10 or more…
Never took more than a few Michter’s Rye Manhattans for me.
re: #3 -Grim- こんばんは
That’s Japanese for Good Evening…
So for how long can this go on is a good question? History sometimes Rhymes.
I hate to cite these good folks from Japan or give Clot a reason to down another 5th and buy more ammo..psychology of low rates.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/japanese-real-estate-bubble-bear-market-in-real-estate-is-making-its-way-to-the-united-states/
希望多写些这么好的文章。
どうもありがとう, Dōmo arigatō
Eight fifths of Knob Creek?
Scrapple Cannon says:
February 27, 2013 at 9:05 pm
All it takes me to forget is eight Knob Creeks.
[2] bearsfan,
I didn’t go that deep, and discounted the rules tightening credit because they are here now, not a future factor, but it does go into the mechanics of one of the factors we discussed.
Good Morning New Jersey
Reposting January contracts for NNJ:
Source GSMLS, except Bergen- NJMLS) – Updated with 2011 Data
January Pending Home Sales (Contracts)
——————————-
Bergen County
January 2011 – 377
January 2012 – 510
January 2013 – 568 (Up 11.4% YOY, Up 50.7% Two Year)
Essex County
January 2011 – 198
January 2012 – 204
January 2013 – 306 (Up 50.0% YOY, Up 54.5% Two Year)
Hunterdon County
January 2011 – 55
January 2012 – 62
January 2013 – 98 (Up 58.1% YOY, Up 78.2% Two Year)
Morris County
January 2011 – 240
January 2012 – 261
January 2013 – 341 (Up 30.7% YOY, Up 42.1% Two Year)
Passaic County
January 2011 – 122
January 2012 – 137
January 2013 – 217 (Up 58.4% YOY, Up 77.9% Two Year)
Somerset County
January 2011 – 147
January 2012 – 176
January 2013 – 230 (Up 30.7% YOY, Up 56.5% Two Year)
Sussex County
January 2011 – 59
January 2012 – 106
January 2013 – 125 (Up 18.1% YOY, Up 111.9% Two Year)
Union County
January 2011 – 171
January 2012 – 211
January 2013 – 259 (Up 22.7% YOY, Up 51.5% Two Year)
Warren County
January 2011 – 44
January 2012 – 58
January 2013 – 77 (Up 32.8% YOY, Up 75% Two Year)
From MarketWatch:
2012’s foreclosure sales lowest in five years
While 2012 had the fewest foreclosure-related sales of homes since 2007, levels remained far higher than before the bursting of the housing-market bubble, according to data released Thursday.
Almost 950,000 U.S. properties in some state of foreclosure or owned by a bank were sold in 2012, down 6% from the prior year, according to a report from RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure marketplace. Despite the decline, these sales remain far above the pre-bubble-burst levels: There were about 46,000 foreclosure-related sales in 2005, according to RealtyTrac.
Foreclosure-related sales made up about 21% of all U.S. residential sales last year, down from 23% in the prior year, but much greater than about 1% in 2005.
Meanwhile, properties sold as short sales, but not in foreclosure, rose 4% from the prior year. These short sales made up about 22% of all residential sales last year.
From the CS Monitor:
Home sales: Is a ‘seller’s market’ pending?
After a six-year free fall in home prices and a modest rebound, real estate agents are beginning to mouth a phrase that until now was taboo during the housing slump:
“Seller’s market.”
Existing home sales are up. Pending home sales – sales that have not been finalized – are the strongest they’ve been in nearly three years. The idea of a seller’s market may sound ludicrous in an economic sector that has lost a third of its value and regained only 7 percent in the past year, as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index. And it’s hard to tell whether it’s a temporary blip, because much depends on the moves homeowners make in the coming months. Nevertheless, growing evidence suggests that in many real estate markets across the United States, a shortage of homes for sale is giving sellers the negotiating advantage after six years where buyers ruled.
“Buyer traffic is 40 percent above a year ago, so there is plenty of demand but insufficient inventory,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), in an e-mail press release Tuesday. “We’ve transitioned into a seller’s market in much of the country.”
Suck in the sheep and the late money, then slam the door. Pump & dump.
3 – Morning Grim. I think I get what your saying, but I still think most folk want to believe in the “dream”, and recent borrowing activity I’ve seen suggests they will continue to borrow as much as someone will give them. I don’t think the psychology has changed much then.
The only thing I have seen changed last 3 years in area i’m looking is this chart and increase of FHA/massively leveraged borrowers.
http://www.bankrate.com/funnel/graph/default.aspx?cat=2&ids=1,-1&state=zz&d=1095&t=MSLine&eco=-1
Anyone else appealing their property taxes this year? If you don’t have a MLS login, where do you look for comparable sales? Zillow? A real estate agent or Lawyer?
and recent borrowing activity I’ve seen suggests they will continue to borrow as much as someone will give them.
Cite your source, one area there is surprisingly little regular data on is downpayment percentage for new loans by region/state.
Some of the only state data I was ever able to find was back in 2011 from Lending Tree:
https://www.lendingtree.com/press-release/new-jersey-leads-nation-highest-mortgage-down-payment
With the housing market continuing to struggle and fewer consumers being able to purchase a new home or apartment, LendingTree.com, the nation’s leading online lender exchange and personal finance resource, today released data highlighting the average down payments on residential real estate purchases for all 50 states and Washington D.C. New Jersey leads the country with the highest average down payment of 13.76%. The state with the lowest average down payment is North Dakota, where buyers put down an average of 11.37%.
The locations rounding out the Top Five for highest down payments including Washington D.C. (13.54%), New York (13.51%), Hawaii (13.37%) and California (13.25%). The states completing the bottom five are Wyoming (11.42%), Oklahoma (11.67%), Utah (11.75%) and Tennessee (11.75%). Overall, the average down payment for all states is 12.29%.
Selling also was very high in stocks between October 2008 and March 2009. Yum would have called a bull market in October 2008 if he was a stock guy
Brian, its best to get a realtor friend to print out listings so you can see what’s a short sale or not. The biggest challenge is when towns slap the 26 code (I think that’s the number) on a sale which means its not useable for appeals but they haven’t given a reason why.
But if you want to do it on your own, you can check the Data Universe (several NJ papers have links to it) and the NJ Association of Tax Boards. They have the tax and sales records online. Both are months behind on data but you can only use sales up to October 1st or October 31st (I forget) so if you do the research in March you should see most or all of the recorded sales that you’d be able to use.
S&P 500 YTD † 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
+5.18% + 16.78% +14.14% +3.97% +7.93%
Real Estate investing is an interesting concept.
Realtors always say real estate is a good investment. But really the day you invest for most folks it is a choice between, staying in cash, buying stocks, buying bonds or buying Real Estate (rental property, trading up or a vacation home for most folk).
Look at above plain Jane S&P 500 vs Real Estate over last ten years. It is like the Yankees playing PS 86 in the Bronx. Stocks may be getting close to fully valued. But still Wow. Someone who had 100K to invest in RE with a 2k a month mortgage in Spring 2003, who instead put 100K into a S&P fund then put 2k more a month in and reinvested all dividends would be sitting on a huge amount of money.
The guy who did RE due to leverage would have lost whole 100K and every months 2k payment as his house would be worth 100K less.
They say in Stocks and Real Estate you make 100% of your gain the day you buy your home.
I appeal every year. I have some great Sandy damage shots of my house and a lot of flood sales near me. I am going for 1992 values.
But honestly, Propertyshark allows you a one time free house snapshot. I would sign up and do your house, make sure you have a printer, able to copy and paste as it is one house only and subscription is expensive. It gives you good ammo and comps to grieve.
redfin also has some good deep dive data, then trula and zillow.
Key is pictures, prove your house is crap. Also key is stuff like train stations, busy roads, visible smokestacks, water towers, double yellow lines, commerical properties. Houses built on top of you. Like a mcmansion up to property line.
Also I would go to DEC site to find nearby oil spillls, neighborhood watchdog to find how close you are to pedophiles etc.
I did it for my sister and I almost had her in tears. When you wife is crying after she leaves your grievance application you are done.
I got national guard, back hos, tractor trailor, and a humvee with a guardsman with a machine gun picture of my house with them on my front lawn picking up the six foot high sixty foot line of debris with three abandoned flood cars thrown about and my car on neighbors fence.
That is called the money shot in grievance. I would love to file for you if I could. Day later comes to look we could round up bums and have them squat on your lawn and I could get a few cars up on blocks in front. Oh yea lets do this
Brian says:
February 28, 2013 at 8:11 am
Anyone else appealing their property taxes this year? If you don’t have a MLS login, where do you look for comparable sales? Zillow? A real estate agent or Lawyer?
Buying does not equal investing. Money made is more likely due to outside factors and luck than anything else, certainly not the buyer’s skill.
The point of education and awareness is to limit your risk and ensure you don’t get f*cked in the process.
Nom, did you see this:
Bob Woodward says he was threatened by White House
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/02/27/bob-woodward-says-he-was-threatened-by-white-house/?hpt=hp_t2
Jobless claims drop down to 344k, 4 week average is 355k. Positive numbers for sure.
[26] Brian,
I did not but I’m not surprised. The degree to which thus admin is going to control the message is absolutely Orwellian.
[28] redux,
Sad thing is, the knee jerk reaction of the left to nuke anyone who says the emperor has no clothes actually generates more buzz than the story itself.
The WH should have ignored it while leaving it up to the minions in the blogosphere to handle. Kind of like how realtors ignore this blog lest they drive traffic to it.
– grim, was just commenting on the area i’m looking (chifi’s area), no large scale market assessment. My source is a handful of homes I looked at, tracked, sold, and looked up the mortgage on. I can list some if you’d like to see some examples of what I mean…but $710 sale prices/$685 loans, that sort of thing. Definitely does not rhyme with the area you guys hunt in, for sure, and flies in the face of the data you provided, which I am not disputing. But I’m seeing a lot more of this than I did 2 years ago. I’m pretty sure your a believer in micro-market assessment, and my comments were focused in that regard. I do not have the means to ID avg sale/loan ratios by town (is that data available?), so I’m stuck with my anecdotals/mini data sets :)
To be specific, I’m looking in Holmdel and Colts Neck.
Brian #18: A real estate agent may be willing to give you comps. But when I appealed mine (successfully) I got a formal appraisal for $500 including the appearance at the hearing, if necessary. I won the appeal, but my town is doing revaluation this year so I will end up having to pay it all back and then some. I’m estimating that the trajectory of my taxes as a result will be:
2011 taxes (pre-appeal): $8400
2012 taxes (post appeal): $6900
Estimated taxes for after revaluation and estimated increase in tax rate: $9300.
Buying a home is an investment, always. For most it is largest investment of their life.
Unlike stocks and bonds the scary part is most folk go all in on one single day.
Someone who seven years graduated college and dollar cost average into 401k is dong pretty well, even though seven years ago stocks were in a bubble. Someone who bought a home ten years ago in the bubble went all in on that day and lost their shirt.
Housing has two main faults as an investment, you cant dollar cost average and you employ leverage. It is same as buying stocks on margin.
grim says:
February 28, 2013 at 8:36 am
Buying does not equal investing. Money made is more likely due to outside factors and luck than anything else, certainly not the buyer’s skill.
The point of education and awareness is to limit your risk and ensure you don’t get f*cked in the process.
Brian #26: Another perspective without the right-wing hysterical ZOMG OBAMA IS TRYING TO BE A DICTATOR AND GIVE THE WHOLE COUNTRY TO BLACK PEOPLE spin: http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/02/28/bob_woodward_vs_gene_sperling_veteran_reporter_trolls_washington.html
Nom [28];
The degree to which thus admin is going to control the message is absolutely Orwellian.
“Essentially, Obama has achieved the same relationship with the press and the media and public information that the Soviet Communist Party had to jam radio transmissions and smash printing presses to achieve. Essentially these guys are volunteering to do for him what they had to be coerced into doing most self-respecting countries, and I think that’s the real issue here.”
http://dailycaller.com/2013/02/22/mark-steyn-rips-media-for-pass-on-obamas-imperial-lifestyle-playing-along-with-phony-crises/
Con’t [34];
If his skin was any thinner he’d have a reservoir tip on his head.
Its the leverage that makes housing a great investment. Esp when mortgage rates are less than inflation, borrowing is free money. You can leverage housing a lot, for stocks you can’t when there is a 50% swoon every decade.
“Esp when mortgage rates are less than inflation (in wages)“,
The leverage (mortgage interest), RE Taxes and Upkeep are for most folks hidden costs. People lose track of them.
Swoons are great, if you are dollar cost averaging into an asset without leverage.
Stocks seem to burst lately once every ten years. RE seems to burst lately once every 20 years.
RE also is so annoying that it is so hard to price. Yet 100% of your gain is dictated by your purchase price. After looking at 20 years worth of sales data on a condo I am looking at for all 30 units I still have little clue what it is worth. Stock, the price is the price. The whole bidding, lack of transparency, limited education of realtors, illogical buyers and seller make whole RE transaction process a nightmare.
Richard says:
February 28, 2013 at 10:20 am
Its the leverage that makes housing a great investment. Esp when mortgage rates are less than inflation, borrowing is free money. You can leverage housing a lot, for stocks you can’t when there is a 50% swoon every decade.
Inflation is 2%, mortgage rates are 3.5%
BearsFan says:
February 28, 2013 at 10:27 am
“Esp when mortgage rates are less than inflation (in wages)“,
Ayn Rand nailed the dynamics of how the media succumbs to the “dear leaders”:
“Your kind of intellectuals are the first to scream when it’s safe-and the first to shut their traps at the first sign of danger. They spend years spitting at the man who feeds them-and they lick the hand of the man who slaps their drooling faces. Didn’t they deliver every country of Europe, one after another, to committees of goons, just like this one here? Didn’t they scream their heads off to shut out every burglar alarm and to break every padlock open for the goons? Have you heard a peep out of them since? Didn’t they scream that they were the friends of labor? Do you hear them raising their voices about the chain gangs, the slave camps, the fourteen-hour workday and the mortality from scurvy in the People’s States of Europe? No, but you do hear them telling the whip-beaten wretches that starvation is prosperity, that slavery is freedom, that torture chambers arc brother-love and that if the wretches don’t understand it, then it’s their own fault that they suffer, and it’s the mangled corpses in the jail cellars who’re to blame for all their troubles, not the benevolent leaders! Intellectuals? You might have to worry about any other breed of men, but not about the modern intellectuals: they’ll swallow anything. I don’t feel so safe about the lousiest wharf rat in the longshoremen’s union: he’s liable to remember suddenly that he is a man-and then I won’t be able to keep him in line. But the intellectuals? That’s the one thing they’ve forgotten long ago. I guess it’s the one thing that all their education was aimed to make them forget. Do anything you please to the intellectuals. They’ll take it.”
“For once,” said Dr. Ferns, “I agree with Mr. Kinnan. I agree with his facts, if not with his feelings. You don’t have to worry about the intellectuals, Wesley. Just put a-few of them on the government payroll and send them out to preach precisely the sort of thing Mr. Kinnan mentioned: that the blame rests on the victims. Give them moderately comfortable salaries and extremely loud titles-and they’ll forget their copyrights and do a better job for you than whole squads of enforcement officers.”
#31 Jill – I have almost the exact numbers as you. I was so mad when the town decided to do another revaluation. I got killed with the last one. My taxes went from $5K to $8K because starter homes trippled in value when high-end homes only doubled in value. I am hoping that the high-end homes have fallen less from the 2006 peak, but that’s probably not the case. Fortunately, the lower morgage rates have offset the increase in property taxes. Otherwise, I would have to relocate at this point. In 2003, I paid $4,600 and got like $1,000 rebate. In 2011, I paid $8,800 and no rebate. In 2003, mortgage interest was $14,000. In 2011, mortgage interest was $7,000.
JJ, a 401k balance is not money. Neither is AAPL stock, until the day it is sold.
“As Stern’s data shows, the stock market only beat inflation by a decent margin during two boom periods — from 1949 to 1967 and from 1982 to 1999. Both were followed by vicious bear markets which wiped out the gains. If you missed those two booms, your total gain from U.S. stocks over the other 54 years since 1928 came to a grand total of 7%, after inflation. No, not 7% a year. Seven percent. Total.”
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histret.html
The 1967 to 1982 period was a time when for most part 401Ks did not exist and mutual finds were pretty rare.
I only know one guy who graduated college in May 1982 started with a good job, joined 401K immediately, had a match and did the max. He stayed 100% equities even after 9/2001 and 10/2008. His balance is massive.
Why cause from June 1982 to June 1999, Nov 2001 to Nov 2003 and October 2009 to Feb 2013 stocks were cheap. He has massive dollar cost averaging that got ramped up with the catch up when he turned 50 and reinvested dividends.
Same can be said for younger folks. One staffer graduated Summer 2008, he has the last 4/5 years to invest. His balance is pretty damm high considering. His Dec 2009, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 matches really bumped him up.
Sure if you graduated college Spring 1986 and left work force 2001 like lots of middle aged moms did your balance is not great. Bad timing,
Someone who joined 401k in Spring 2006 who maxed out equities in a place that kept match whole time would be at 280k about now from a starting point of zero.
Statler Waldorf says:
February 28, 2013 at 10:39 am
JJ, a 401k balance is not money. Neither is AAPL stock, until the day it is sold.
“As Stern’s data shows, the stock market only beat inflation by a decent margin during two boom periods — from 1949 to 1967 and from 1982 to 1999. Both were followed by vicious bear markets which wiped out the gains. If you missed those two booms, your total gain from U.S. stocks over the other 54 years since 1928 came to a grand total of 7%, after inflation. No, not 7% a year. Seven percent. Total.”
[2]grim – There is an even longer cycle for some other negative occurrences, about 4 generations. That’s how long it takes for the generation that cleaned up the last big travesty, and sought to prevent it ever happening again, to fall from power and/or die.
One minor example: Glass-Steagall, Glass-Schmiegel. We don’t need that any more. This time it’s different.
There is a reason housing bubbles take place in 10-20 year cycles, that’s how long it takes to forget.
I made up in 2000 and up in 2008 by mere fact I saw shoeshine boys buying and went the other. way. I am starting to see shoeshine boys buying again, but this puppy might have a few hundred points left in it. Watch the shoeshine boys is all you need to be next rockafeller.
Statler Waldorf says:
February 28, 2013 at 10:39 am
JJ, a 401k balance is not money. Neither is AAPL stock, until the day it is sold.
“As Stern’s data shows, the stock market only beat inflation by a decent margin during two boom periods — from 1949 to 1967 and from 1982 to 1999. Both were followed by vicious bear markets which wiped out the gains. If you missed those two booms, your total gain from U.S. stocks over the other 54 years since 1928 came to a grand total of 7%, after inflation. No, not 7% a year. Seven percent. Total.”
Hey a house I looked at when into contract today. Is there anyway to find out what a house went into contract for? I hate waiting for the actual close.
It seems no websites post that info of pending sales prices.
I would go a step further. A 401K balance is not money until you withdraw it and pay the taxes on it. It’s only slightly more liquid than home equity. People who think they have 401ks, myself included, really only have pixels and statements until it’s actually withdrawn. You might not even be safe until you withdraw it, pay the taxes and spend it all leaving yourself with zero traceable assets. Look at Madoff’s clients. The ones who were smart enough to withdraw their profits didn’t even get to keep it all. Madoff’s investors are small fry compared to us 401K sheep.
Statler Waldorf says:
February 28, 2013 at 10:39 am
JJ, a 401k balance is not money. Neither is AAPL stock, until the day it is sold.
Find out where one or both of the attorneys do their drinking. Even better chance if you know what they drink.
Hey a house I looked at when into contract today. Is there anyway to find out what a house went into contract for? I hate waiting for the actual close.
JJ [46];
Is there anyway to find out what a house went into contract for?
Sure, bone the listing agent. Duh…
Con’t [49];
JJ off his game this morning… ;-)
She is pissed at me. Basically we dry humped and she did not have an orgasm.
I went and saw house a few times, even put a few bids in, the lady was holding out for top dollar, finally I was like I am pulling out. Then you start the whole process thinking all the bad things about house, then she comes back right before Sandy with price I originally offered. But by them I already shot my load and was not ready to close deal.
So now post Sandy she sold house this week, just went into contract.
They really should make that data public. Post Sandy prices are all that count, most post Sandy prices are still in contract. Unless you know the accepted offer you dont know squat.
Anon E. Moose says:
February 28, 2013 at 11:42 am
JJ [46];
Is there anyway to find out what a house went into contract for?
Sure, bone the listing agent. Duh…
Or bone the bidder.
I should bone the seller. She is a spinster. Once I get the rotten cherries and cobwebs out of her box she will tell me anything.
Libtard in the City says:
February 28, 2013 at 11:53 am
Or bone the bidder.
JJ [52];
If you were willing to bone the seller, you wouldn’t be talking about missing out on the deal.
Sadly, if JJ boned the seller, the price would probably increase.
One of my favorite baseball players of all time…..
http://www.grayflannelsuit.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/rusty-kuntz-card.jpg
JJ says:
February 28, 2013 at 11:57 am
I should bone the seller. She is a spinster. Once I get the rotten cherries and cobwebs out of her box she will tell me anything.
Libtard in the City says:
February 28, 2013 at 11:53 am
Or bone the bidder.
Steve #41: I can’t even refi to compensate; my 15-year mortgage @ 4.75% has only 6 years and ~$80K left on it. I don’t want to refi for 15 years and start over again…and most banks won’t even lend that little. Valley National offered me $800 in closing fees, but I’d have to take $20K cash out, which is kind of missing the point. It just burns that because you can’t sell a McMansion anymore, they’re going to get a big tax cut while those of us who didn’t feel we needed a big@ss house to feel worthwhile are going to get clobbered.
This is my favorite baller.
http://www.vintagecardtraders.com/virtual/e126/e126-36.jpg
56
Jill,
Can’t you refi into a 15-year at a lower rate taking 20K cash out, than overpay immediately to bring it back down.
Most banks wont let you refin under 100K. Their is no profit in it as paperwork is the same as a larger loan.
Only real choice is to do a HELOC or home equity loan, up to 100K is tax deductable, get a great rate and pay off primary.
In reality, 80k is peanuts and 4.75% is a pretty low rate. Plus mortgage is nearly all principal at this point.
Plus unless you use existing bank to refinance your mortgage the mortgage recoding fees will eat you up.
Just throw your next bonus or two at it and pay if off.
Jill says:
February 28, 2013 at 1:22 pm
Steve #41: I can’t even refi to compensate; my 15-year mortgage @ 4.75% has only 6 years and ~$80K left on it. I don’t want to refi for 15 years and start over again…and most banks won’t even lend that little. Valley National offered me $800 in closing fees, but I’d have to take $20K cash out, which is kind of missing the point. It just burns that because you can’t sell a McMansion anymore, they’re going to get a big tax cut while those of us who didn’t feel we needed a big@ss house to feel worthwhile are going to get clobbered.
Jill [56];
If you’ve got 6 years left on your 80k note at 4.75% and you refi to a new 3% 15-yr note, you can continue making the same payment and be done six months sooner; or you can target the same payoff date and save probably ~$100/mo. If they want you to take $20k cash out, you can oblige them only to plow it right back into principal reduction, right? You stand to save almost $5k in interest.
Interim superintendents costing N.J. millions from ‘double-dipping,’ report says
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2013/02/interim_superintendents_costin.html#incart_river_default#incart_hbx#incart_best-of
#33 Jill
Woodward has lost a lot of credibility in the last decade mainly at the hands of GWBs reputation. The emails in questions are below. It doesn’t seem to have been that threatening.
On Thursday morning, Politico released the text of the email exchange between Woodward and Sperling. The emails look to be a far cry from the kind of thuggery that Woodward implied.
Here’s an excerpt from Sperling:
I apologize for raising my voice in our conversation today. I do understand your problems with a couple of our statements in the fall — but feel on the other hand that you focus on a few specific trees that gives a very wrong perception of the forest. But perhaps we will just not see eye to eye here. But I do truly believe you should rethink your comment about saying saying that Potus asking for revenues is moving the goal post. I know you may not believe this, but as a friend, I think you will regret staking out that claim … My apologies again for raising my voice on the call with you. Feel bad about that and truly apologize.
Woodward, who would later profess to be unnerved by Sperling’s email, replied very calmly:
Gene: You do not ever have to apologize to me. You get wound up because you are making your points and you believe them. This is all part of a serious discussion. I for one welcome a little heat; there should more given the importance. I also welcome your personal advice.
#56
“I can’t even refi to compensate; my 15-year mortgage @ 4.75% has only 6 years and ~$80K left on it. I don’t want to refi for 15 years and start over again…and most banks won’t even lend that little. Valley National offered me $800 in closing fees, but I’d have to take $20K cash out, which is kind of missing the point. It just burns that because you can’t sell a McMansion anymore, they’re going to get a big tax cut while those of us who didn’t feel we needed a big@ss house to feel worthwhile are going to get clobbered.”
Look into a 5 year home equity loan with Spencer Savings. Right now the rate is 3.25%. We refinanced to a home equity with them in the summer – I know it was less than $500 in fees and we have since modified because the rates went down.
#62 redux
One of the best take downs of Woodward.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2003/06/aural-history/302738/
64 –
I tried to read that but I fell asleep after the second paragraph. Thanks for posting though.
Vindication, of sorts, for Woodward: MSNBC reported just now that the sequester was something that “[the president] suggested and republicans agreed to.”
Let me be clear: sequestration was not my idea.
Jill, the average 50 year old should have 10x his age in savings. Since you are married you should have a minimum of one million in savings.
Now you dont like stocks or bonds so where is this million? I mean an 80K mortgage if refinanced at 3% wont even give you a tax deduction anymore. Why not take 80K out of the million plus you have in savings and pay off the mortgage?
You can also borrow 50K from 401k since 40Ks are at an all time high, throw that at mortgage as all principal and at current payment rate mortgage would be done very quick. Or just flood house and take and SBA loan at 1.75%
Fab [64];
Go ahead and believe Hitchens if you want. You would. No chance now that he might cross his O-ness like Woodward did.
I like JJs math, but it’s totally reverse. You get married, savings are cut in half. Unless you live in a 1 br rathole. Subtract $250k for each kid by the time they are out of college.
I just save every other paycheck. As long as you invest every other paycheck into good dividend paying stocks or bonds each month that throw off income it only takes like 20 years to add up. You got a good 20 years after you are married to do this.
Plus people get married later in life now and have less kids. Couples often today have first kid at 35, you graduate school at 21. Bu time kid is born between the two of you there is 28 years of income and 401K contributions. Wife stays on maybe til 41 when last one is born and quits. By then you have 40 years of income. By time you have two kids in college husband is 61, which is 40 years of work, plus wifes 20 years and you are at 60 years worth of savings. In todays kindergarten classes half the dads are between 45 and 52.
xolepa says:
February 28, 2013 at 3:14 pm
I like JJs math, but it’s totally reverse. You get married, savings are cut in half. Unless you live in a 1 br rathole. Subtract $250k for each kid by the time they are out of college.
Well done, JJ, you sure piled it high today.
JJ’s math makes Captain Cheapo blush. Reading his posts, you would think JJ’s bonuses are larger than my annual salary.
I was reading once that annual salary is not a good indicator of savings amount. Key is longevity, constant savings and not doing anything stupid. I have plenty of friends who make a lot more than I do. But, they had periods of unemployment, were spenders, got hit in internet bubble or housing bubble etc.
Someone can make 100K, but if they save 50% of salary for 30 years and not do anything stupid it can add up. Plus as long as you make enough to do max by law in 401K making more is not a big advantage. The folks with most money are dinks who both max out 401k. By 55 that is some boat load of cash.
Libtard in the City says:
February 28, 2013 at 4:00 pm
JJ’s math makes Captain Cheapo blush. Reading his posts, you would think JJ’s bonuses are larger than my annual salary.
Today is 401K freedom day!!! Just hit my max for year today!!!
SS Freedom Day and 401K freedom days are great days.
Libtard in the City says:
February 28, 2013 at 4:00 pm
JJ’s math makes Captain Cheapo blush. Reading his posts, you would think JJ’s bonuses are larger than my annual salary.
Will the Student Loan Bubble and the Housing Bubble Merge Into One Huge Super Bubble?
Tuition, clothes, cars, spring break. College students will blow money on anything, as long as they don’t have to pay for it (thanks Mom and Dad!). Or, at least, as long as they don’t have to pay for it right now (loans! credit card debt!).
You know what else they’ll pay for? Housing. You know how much they’ll pay for it? A lot.
more…
http://observer.com/2013/02/will-the-student-loan-bubble-and-the-housing-bubble-merge-into-one-huge-super-bubble/
At least, that’s what real estate developers are discovering (to their delight), according to The Wall Street Journal. As long as you can put up with the occasional rager and someone vomiting into the pool every now and again, student housing pays handsomely. And because students are paying with other people’s money—either their parents’ or their future selves’—student housing has proved cheerfully impervious to market downturns.
#69 moonse
Hitchens may finally be settling his argument on Atheism, but I would not have put him in camp O.
“The political rhetoric of Obamaism, alas, is even more bloviating at times than Camelot was.”
I think a few in here would enjoy drinking their beer from one of these.
http://shop.battlemug.com/
On a side note, Mrs Fab came home the other night with a nice growler from defiant brewery in Pearl River NY
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JJ – “Inflation is 2%, …”
that’s funny
[80] Bears Fan
JJ is right. Core inflation is running at 1.93%. Of course, it excludes food, taxes, daycare, and college tuition, and other non-essentials.
Obama Is Playing a New Game
He seems to think the way to win is by trying not to make a deal.
By PEGGY NOONAN
Everyone has been wondering how the public will react when the sequester kicks in. The American people are in the position of hostages who’ll have to decide who the hostage-taker is. People will get mad at either the president or the Republicans in Congress. That anger will force one side to rethink or back down. Or maybe the public will get mad at both.
The White House is, as always, confident of its strategy: Scare people as much as possible and let the media take care of the rest. Maybe there will be a lot to report, maybe not, but either way the sobbing child wanting to go to Head Start and the anxious FAA bureaucrat worried about airplane maintenance will be found. This will surely have power.
And in truth, the sequester’s impact may be bad. Rep. Maxine Waters of California, a 22-year House veteran and ranking Democrat on the Financial Services Committee, this week warned of “over 170 million jobs that could be lost.” That’s actually more jobs than America has, and it’s little comfort to say, “But she’s a famous idiot,” because Washington is actually full of famous idiots who are making serious decisions about how the sequester cuts are to be applied.
If the sequester brings chaos and discomfort, it’s certainly possible the Republicans will be blamed. But it’s just as possible President Obama will be. Not because the sequester idea came from his White House—that probably doesn’t interest anybody outside Washington—but because a) he’s the president, and presidents are expected to take care of things and work out agreements, not “force the moment to its crisis,” and b) he’s the chief executive of the federal government, and therefore capable of directing agencies to make sure all cuts are in wholly nonessential offices. I was thinking the other day of the General Services Administration scandal—the red-carpet retreat in Vegas, the toasts, the shows, all paid for by taxpayers. Maybe the president could start there.
***
How’s the president’s game going? What’s new is that almost everyone does seem to understand he’s playing games. He used to get more credit. His threats of coming mayhem and his lack of interest in easing it have dimmed his luster.
Certainly in the past few weeks he’s become more aggressive and gameful. A crisis is coming—a series of crises actually, with more ceilings and the threat of a government shutdown—and he is not engaging or taking ownership. The “We’re not speaking” thing with Congress is more amazing and historic than we appreciate. Only a president can stop that kind of thing, and he doesn’t. He doesn’t even seem to think he owes the speaker of the House—the highest elected official of a party representing roughly half the country—even the appearance of laying down his arms for a moment and holding serious talks. He journeys into America making speeches, he goes on TV but only for interviews the White House is confident will be soft.
He doesn’t have time for Congress, but he has time to go on Al Sharpton’s radio show and say Republicans care only about protecting the rich from taxes. Which is the kind of thing that embitters, that makes foes dig in more deeply.
But here’s what seems really new. Past presidents went over the heads of the media to win over the people, to get them to contact Congress and push Congress to deal. Fine, and fair enough. But Mr. Obama goes to the people to get them to enhance his position by hating Republicans. He’s playing only to the polls, not to Congress, not to get the other side to the bargaining table. He doesn’t even like the bargaining table. He doesn’t like bargaining.
Where does that get us? We are in new territory. There is a strange kind of nihilism in the president’s approach, it’s a closed, self-referential loop. And it’s guaranteed to keep agreement from happening.
Meanwhile, the president has been receiving some raps on the knuckles from journalists and thinkers who’ve been sympathetic in the past. There’s a lot of coolness toward what the president is doing, to his threats of coming disaster. Howard Fineman in the Huffington Post, in a piece called “The Celebrity President,” noted that Mr. Obama “doesn’t hide his disdain for Congress,” for the “folkways of traditional Washington” or for Congress and the media. The president in the next few months should avoid “cheap theatrics,” Mr. Fineman added: “Somebody has to be an adult in this situation, and it falls to the president.”
Bob Woodward famously slammed the president after he suggested, at the Newport News shipyard in Virginia, that maintenance of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln would be delayed. Before that he’d warned work might have to be slowed or stopped on the USS Truman. Mr. Woodward, on MSNBC: “So we now have the president going out [saying] ‘Because of this piece of paper and this agreement, I can’t do what I need to do to protect the country.’ That’s a kind of madness that I haven’t seen in a long time.”
***
While the president is bringing a partisan edge and soft-voiced pugilism to the drama, the first lady is becoming . . . let’s call it culturally dominant, and in a way that seems politically related, that seems fully networked and wired. Michele Obama is omnipresent—dancing with Jimmy Fallon, chatting with Rachel Ray, on “Good Morning America” talking about the kids and another show talking about the bangs. On ABC she accidentally said something factually incorrect, and they thoughtfully edited it out. Mrs. Obama’s presence reached its zenith, one hopes, Sunday night at the Academy Awards when she came on, goofily star-struck military personnel arrayed in dress uniforms behind her, to announce the Best Picture award. It was startling and, as she gave her benediction—the movies “lift our spirits, broaden our minds, transport us to places we can never imagine”—even in a way disquieting.
This would not be an accidental assertion of jolly partisan advantage. It seemed to me an expression of this White House’s lack of hesitation to insert itself into any cultural event anywhere. And this in a 50-50 nation, a divided nation that in its entertainments seeks safety from the encroachments of politics, and the political.
I miss Michelle Obama’s early years, when she was beautiful, a little awkward, maybe a little ambivalent about her new role, as a sane person would be. Now she is glamorous, a star, and like all stars assumes our fascination.
It can be hard to imagine after four years in the White House, whichever party you’re in, that people might do all right for a few minutes if they’re free of your presence. There’s a tendency to assume you enliven with that presence, as opposed to deaden with your political overlay.
All of this—the president’s disdain for Congress and for Republicans, the threats of damage unless he gets his way, the first lady’s forays—is part of the permanent campaign, and the immediate sequester campaign.
But they push it too far. It feels uncalibrated, over some invisible line.
It looks like what critics have long accused this White House of being—imperious, full of overreach, full of itself.
bears (17)-
And, as we know from past experience, things always end minty fresh when this situation develops.
“The only thing I have seen changed last 3 years in area i’m looking is this chart and increase of FHA/massively leveraged borrowers.”
gluteus (78)-
No amount of Defiant Tripel can erase the feeling you get from watching your shyte footballing club.
Bale is gonna rip you guys up this weekend.
chi (82)-
The only thing that could be better than the sequester would be a mass mailing of anthrax letters to all 535 clowngressmen.
Death by anthrax is too noble for a clowngressman.
Chifi,
Noonan is right . The Obamas are trying to create a cult nanny state like Chavez. I think Obama wants a crisis 3 yrs from now so he can pull a FDR and run 4 terms. Maybe try to pack the supreme court too, if they don’t roll over for him.
The End Is Nigh (Hard Perimeter Edition):
Bullet Run Leaves Many Low on Ammo
By ASHBY JONES
The rush on ammunition sparked by fears of new firearm controls has left gun owners scouring the shelves for bullets.
Across the country, demand for ammunition is outstripping supply, causing retailers to ration sales, police departments to alter training practices and some gun owners to shelve their weapons for the time being.
The heightened demand for ammunition, and for firearms themselves, began shortly after the December school shooting in Newtown, Conn., largely in response to concerns that the government would introduce new restrictions.
Since then, popular models of guns, such as the AR-15 semiautomatic rifle, have flown off shelves, causing shortages, according to retailers. But the shortages on ammunition are even more severe, they say.
“Firearms are starting to bounce back—you can find them,” said John Powell, the manager of a Wholesale Sports Outdoor Outfitters outlet in Federal Way, Wash. “But with ammunition, it’s a famine.”
Statistics on ammunition sales are hard to come by. Industry giants such as Alliant Techsystems Inc. ATK -1.42%subsidiary Federal Premium Ammunition, don’t reveal data. And Michael Bazinet, a spokesman for the firearm industry’s trade group, the National Shooting Sports Foundation, said the organization doesn’t track ammunition sales.
Even retailers are struggling to quantify the surge. In December, Bull’s Eye LLC, a gun store in St. Louis, saw about a 20% jump in ammunition sales from a year earlier, said owner Jim Stevens. But since then, sales have ebbed, largely due to the shortage in supply. “It’s hard to get a good measure,” he said. “The spike in sales was so fast and so steep.”
In January, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., WMT -1.23%the largest gun seller in the country, started rationing ammunition, limiting sales to three boxes per customer per day. The policy will remain in place for the foreseeable future, said spokeswoman Ashley Hardie.
Some manufacturers say they are adding employees and running extra shifts. “We’re paying a good amount of overtime to try to keep up,” said Jeff Hoffman, the co-owner of Black Hills Ammunition, a manufacturer based in Rapid City, S.D. Still, Mr. Hoffman said it is going to take months before his firm can meet demand. “For the most popular calibers, we’re quoting delivery times of early next year,” he said.
Gun owners are feeling the squeeze. Noah Lemas, an owner of several semiautomatic handguns, rifles and shotguns in Bend, Ore., said that after learning of the rise in demand, he decided to restock his ammunition supply.
“I’ve been looking since December, but can’t find it anywhere—everything is out of stock,” he said. Mr. Lemas said he finally found a box of 500 rounds of 40-caliber ammunition at a local gun show last weekend, for the “slightly inflated” price of $210. “I felt like the luckiest guy in town.”
The industry has seen less pronounced jumps in demand before, such as after the passage of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban of 1994 and more recently in late 2008, after the election of Barack Obama as president triggered fears of new gun laws.
Those episodes had police departments nationwide taking note. “We learned that you can’t go below a six- to eight-month supply,” said Tim Fitch, the chief of police for St. Louis County, Mo. Some police chiefs say they have ample supply for officers in the line of duty. Still, others are cutting back on firearm training and replacing live target practice with shooting simulators.
The police department in Rollingwood, Texas, typically hosts four firearm-training sessions per year. But that has stopped. “Our last training session was in October, and we don’t have any more scheduled,” said Dayne Pryor, the department’s chief.
Retailers and manufacturers say there are worse problems than an unprecedented surge in demand. But it poses challenges. “Look, we’ll get a shipment in and it’ll be gone in three or four hours,” said Mr. Powell, of Wholesale Sports.
Black Hills Ammunition’s Mr. Hoffman said the demand hasn’t necessarily helped profits. “We’re just taking orders on stuff that we likely would have sold anyway,” he said.
[88]. Chifi,
A few years ago, I bought a used mini 14, extra mags, and a decent amount of .223. Also bought a mossberg, a couple of boxes of shells, extra ammo for my short guns and enough .22LR to plink until Rubio is president. Haven’t touched any of it since I bought it.
Foresight is a wonderful thing. Now my only concern is shelf life.
grim: I have seen your future…..this is so you….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pii4G8FkCA4
87
Please provide one example of an O nanny state, and healthcare, which should be socialized, is not allowed. Does he want your guns? No. Has he proposed cuts in “entitlements” (actually payed in insurance) Yes. Stocks at new highs…yes, quite the Socialist indeed!
Creating a crisis to run for a third term? Really? It is the opposition who wants a crisis and to squash any economic growth with an eye on the mid-terms. And why would they want growth? Corps are flush with cash, labor costs historically low and the 1% are doing just fine.
Yeah, and lets pack that SC…fat Tony Scalia has run amok. Maybe he’ll have a coronary.
Okay, I wish I read this thread b4 posting. Now that clot has DHS watching his every post, I’ll be on their watch list just for knowing him.
[62] Fabius
Spoken like a person who knows how to wield some of the tools used in the district but doesn’t know how things work in the district.
And no, I’m not educating you, except to show you how we operated there.
Should I send an anthrax letter to gluteus…or to Arsene Wenger?
Duh. Split the anthrax, and send them both a white powdery surprise.
The gift that keeps on giving…
Hey Gary, here are the people bidding up all that prestigious RE near you.
WSJ/ By RUTH SIMON and RACHEL LOUISE ENSIGN
The number of young borrowers who have fallen behind on their student loan payments has soared over the past four years, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in a report released Thursday.
According to the report, 35% of people under 30 who have student loans were at least 90 days late on their payments at the end of last year, up from 26% in 2008 and 21% at the end of 2004.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323978104578332222805526516.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
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