From CNBC:
For the first time in over six months, the supply of homes for sale is beginning to rise.
While inventories are still down nearly 20 percent from a year ago, they did rise more than the seasonal norm in February from January, according to a new report from the National Association of Realtors.
The raw number of for-sale listings rose 10 percent month-to-month, and when seasonally adjusted, they were up 2.6 percent, the biggest jump in over two years.
“Tight inventory has been a critical issue for the housing market: The limited supply of homes has fueled bidding wars and has meant that buyers have little to choose from and agents have little to sell,” said Trulia.com’s Jed Kolko. “Inventory has been tightening because construction levels are still low, adding little new housing stock, and homeowners are waiting to sell until they have more positive equity. This inventory spiral been especially severe since prices bottomed.”
…
So the increase in supply is welcome news, as the severe lack of homes for sale has been pushing home prices higher far faster than anyone expected. That swift jump in prices, along with low supply, have been hampering sales, which were up just 0.8 percent month-to-month in February, missing analysts’ expectations. Single-family home sales were actually weaker, while condo sales jumped nearly 9 percent from January.“Rapid price appreciation is not good news for home buyers,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR. “Wages are up just 2-3 percent, while prices are rising 4-5 times that.”
Good Morning New Jersey
2nd
“Old World Charm abounds in this architercturally[sic] distinctive 1920’s Mediterranean-Style villa, gracious & impressive quality finishes & amenities abound. Arched doorways, intricately paneled.” -GSMLS
3 Serafin Pl, Glen Rock
$939K , Taxes $24K
MLS# 2999383
Status: Active
County: Bergen
Cities/Towns: Glen Rock Boro
Style: Colonial
FHA 55+: No
Zone/Comp:
Rooms: 12
Bedrooms: 5
Full Baths: 4
Half Baths: 1
Total Baths: 4.0
Acreage: 0.54
From HousingWire:
Here’s why the latest NAR report is actually bad news
An interesting reaction on Twitter Thursday morning followed a strange trajectory into press reports.
First, the National Association of Realtors stated housing inventory posted this huge monthly leap, nearly 10%.
This was quickly followed by Trulia chief economist and VP of Analytics Jed Kolko commenting on the news.
Several mortgage finance reporters jumped on the latter, praising his one quote about how the inventory crunch “may be finally easing for good.”
Coverage from CNNMoney, Reuters, USA Today — you name it — focused on the three-year high for home sales. The housing recovery is here, they report, and it’s accelerating.
But wait, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. One only needs to take a look at the totality of Kolko’s comments to put the NAR report into the appropriate perspective.
People looking for homes is great for Trulia. Trulia lists for sale homes as its core business model. As long as people are looking for home, they’re looking on destinations such as Trulia.
However, the data comes from NAR, whose members get paid by selling homes.
This is something they could do a whole lot more of, if the inventory allowed.
So NAR is actually saying unnecessary tight inventory is a bad thing, which Kolko noted.
…
It’s an outrage that home affordability should be so low, but there remains nothing to buy. The anecdotal evidence of bidding wars, which Kolko also alludes to, should not be happening in a burgeoning housing recovery.
Those who waited on the sidelines, kept their finances in order, and showed some well-needed prudence should be rewarded with a good housing deal. Instead, they are forced to wait at least until summer to get a decent bid in.
So forgive us if we don’t think Thursday’s NAR report isn’t as rosy as others think.
As Kolko puts it, “buyers have little to choose from and agents have little to sell.” Not good.
The inventory jump reported yesterday was actually much smaller than the headlines would lead you to believe…
From CR:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gavwyUGAVuY/UUsUuXCoVVI/AAAAAAAAZgI/rRbLSedZKJE/s1600/EHSInvFeb2013.jpg
Yeah, it is that little tiny blip at the right.
3 – That house is actually pretty cool, I’ve driven by it lots of times (it’s on Lincoln Ave really). It’s larger than the pictures make it seem, something like 4000 or 5000 square feet, which is incredible when you consider it was a 1920s house. It belongs in the Hollywood Hills, not in Glen Rock. It’s been for sale for a while, I remember it back when it was in the $1.2m range. This is an incredibly difficult sale, not only is the price a problem for GR, but the location is poo poo. I imagine in 1925 the location looked quite different (was 208 even in existence?) That newer home in the rear that was flagged in wasn’t there for sure.
Yeah, you can almost imagine the history. Looks like 3, 19, and 22 Serafin (3 Mediterraneans) were built about the same time in the 1920s, large lots. 208 was *not* in existence at the time.
14, 30, and 38 were built in the 60s, likely due to lot subdivisions, infilling.
Looks like the owner of 3 Serafin sold the rear lot to his son in 1995, when they put up that rear flag-lot house.
Guessing those original 3 were sitting on lot sizes closer to 1 acre when they were originally built.
1. By age 40, you’ve accumulated 1 to 3 times your annual income
2. If you’re part of a dual-income couple, you can cover your fixed expenses with one income.
If you can pay for all your fixed costs – mortgage, cellphone bill, insurance payments, child care, etc. – with using just your or your spouse’s income, you’re in excellent shape, says Baehr. The second income can be used for discretionary expenses, like vacations, dinners out, summer camp and savings.
4. You have only one car payment at a time, or better yet, you save in a car replacement account each month instead of making a payment
5. Your home’s value is 2 to 2.5 times your income and your mortgage is no more than 80% of the value.
This is the standard loan-to-value (LTV) ratio – the percentage of the property’s value that is mortgaged – financial advisers recommend for home buyers. For instance, if your income is $100,000, your home’s value shouldn’t exceed $250,000
Baehr acknowledges that in some pricey housing markets – in New York, New Jersey and California, for example — it can be difficult to stay in that range.
So, this is the price we pay for living in New Jersey? Is it worth it?
Blib or not in the housing market people are in trouble in this area. There are NOT that many people that fit the profile I posted for a healthy financial future.
“So, this is the price we pay for living in New Jersey? Is it worth it?”
If you remain in New Jersey, then the answer is yes.
#3 – more proof that Bergen County is completely devoid of good taste.
I’m all about antique homes, my house is from the 1700s but I’ve got fields, ponds, and mountain views around me. If you have to live in Bergen, forget the “romantic” old house next to the highway and buy a dumpy split level or cape on a street of teardowns or more expensive real estate on the quietest road in the most expensive town you can afford and give it a craftsman vibe on the exterior. Dark green hardi-plank and a band of horizontal stone can make almost any shithole look like a million bucks.
My house is from the 70s too…
A price to income ratio of 2x, as far as I can tell, has not existed in NJ in the past 70 years, and may never have existed for all I know. Price to Income ratios of under 2.5x have been incredibly rare in NJ, having only existed in two periods in the past 70 years, the 1950s and the 1970s. Congratulations if you are old enough to have purchased during these time periods.
Going as far back as I have decent data for, the 1940s, shows NJ home prices being more than 50% higher than the national average and the third most expensive state to buy a house (CT and DC being higher). The data is rough, but I’d wager a bet that even in 1940, the Price to Income ratio was higher than 2x.
Home Price Bottom Always Just Around The Corner But Never Quite Here
http://www.zillowblog.com/research/2012/03/20/home-price-bottom-always-just-around-the-corner-but-never-quite-here/
Shocking: Gary Shilling is the most bearish analyst surveyed.
Regarding Inventory:
Grim, maybe underwater homeowners are suddenly realizing they are no longer underwater and are finally able to sell their homes? I remember reading an article by Stan Humphries where he predicted this. He thinks they will dump their homes onto the market en masse increasing inventory and exerting downward pressure on pricing.
If you look at some samples of inventory, Are there many of them that were previously purchased in the last few years?
Ironically, while most here love to cite high price-to-income ratios as reasons for high priced homes in NJ to fall, it’s the top tier towns in NJ that have the *lowest* price to income ratios, and the lowest tier towns that have the *highest*. Completely opposite of what most people would assume.
For example, worst towns, including Paterson and Newark come in at 8x and higher
Clifton and the low/mid tiers comes in at 5-6x
Short Hills and Upper Montclair at in the 4x range
So go figure, it’s the states poorest towns that can’t afford to live here, not it’s richest.
When I went back and ran some models, there were some periods in NJ where you could have goosed the ratio if you purchased at just the right times, basically, if you purchased a home when the p/i ratio was lowest, and your purchase was immediately preceding a period of strong wage inflation. In the 10 years that followed the purchase, wage inflation turned the moderately unaffordable home into incredibly affordable.
For example, if you purchased in the late 70s, by the late 80s, early 90s your original purchase price to current income (a completely different ratio), could have been as low as 1.5x. Theoretically, someone in this situation could have easily paid off the home by the mid 90s, in half of the 30 year term, with very little additional financial burden.
What John is always talking about is actually true… Jews taking over a town…
N.Y. school board battle brings out racist, anti-Semitic barbs
SPRING VALLEY, N.Y. — School board meetings descend into shouting matches. Accusations of racism and anti-Semitism fly. Angry parents turn their backs on board members in a symbolic stand of disrespect.
Tension in a suburban New York school district is rooted in an unusual dynamic: The families who send their children to public schools are mostly Hispanic and African-American. The school board is almost entirely made up of ultra-Orthodox Jews who send their children to private schools and are bent on keeping taxes low.
“It’s as if the board of directors of Coke only owned stock in Pepsi,” said Steven White, an activist for the public schools.
Public-school parents accuse the board of the 9,000-student East Ramapo Central School District of cutting teachers, guidance counselors, art programs, all-day kindergarten and the high school marching band, while diverting public resources to favored Orthodox institutions.
Peggy Hatton, who co-hosts a radio program that features school issues, said, “It’s just becoming impossible for our students to apply to colleges when the advanced placement classes are cut, the extracurriculars are cut.”
How a public school district that’s 57 percent black, including Haitian, and 29 percent Hispanic, came to be governed by ultra-Orthodox Jews is a case study in changing demographics and the power of democracy.
The district, 25 miles north of New York City in Rockland County, has been settled rapidly in recent years by Jews from the Hasidic and other sects who came from their traditional strongholds of Brooklyn. They quickly built their own schools, or yeshivas, raised large families and became a powerful voting bloc. Though not a majority of the population, they have organized to defeat school budgets that increase taxes and to elect members of their own communities to the board.
At the same time, public-school supporters are less organized; many are believed to be non-citizens who don’t vote. And the area’s older residents have also tended to vote against school budget increases.
At least seven of the nine board members are ultra-Orthodox Jewish men. A man and a woman who represented the public-school community resigned from the board in January, alleging intimidation by the rest of the board. Two men, one black and one Jewish, were appointed to replace them.
The stark division has led to a flurry of lawsuits and petitions, and New York State has intervened, blocking the sale of a public school building to a Jewish congregation and warning the board to change the way it uses public special education money for private schools.
While state law provides for a school district to pay some private school expenses, for transportation, textbooks and special education, the state alleges that East Ramapo has been too quick to move children — mostly Jewish children — from the public schools into special education schools run by the Orthodox. Each case funnels thousands of taxpayer dollars to the private schools.
The state is also insisting that the district balance its budget, which has an estimated $8 million deficit this school year. At a meeting Tuesday night, the board approved borrowing $7.5 million.
That meeting illustrated the apparent disdain each side has for the other. There seemed little in common between the board members, most in yarmulkes and black coats, and the onlookers, mostly from racial minorities.
About 20 residents shouted in protest, then stood and turned their backs on the board when it decided that in the future, students could address the board only at the end of meetings.
“You’re not doing right by these children!” shouted Mae Davis of Spring Valley. “What about freedom of speech?”
Daniel Schwartz, president of the board, had complained that public comment has become insulting, and he said there’s no requirement to offer it at all.
“I think there are people who want to be abusive to the board and when it starts we’re not going to tolerate it,” he said Monday.
Some parents have petitioned the state Education Department to remove the school board, a rare step. Department spokesman Tom Dunn would not comment specifically about East Ramapo, but said the commissioner has the authority to remove local officials “for willful violation of law or neglect of duty or willfully disobeying a decision, order, rule or regulation.”
The board denies any wrongdoing. It announced at Tuesday’s meeting that it is suing the state in federal court, seeking a judge’s declaration that its methods for special education placement are legal.
“Nobody has done anything to deprive anybody of anything,” Schwartz said. “The monies that are spent on private schools are state mandated just like the monies that are spent on public schools.”
He says the district’s problems stem from its being “a square peg” — a district that has about 9,000 public school children and an estimated 20,000 in private schools, almost all of them Jewish.
“You show me another district where at least two thirds, if not possibly more than that, of the total student population is private school as opposed to public school,” Schwartz said in an interview. “You show me a district like that anywhere.”
Similar patterns affected the school board makeup in Lawrence, on Long Island, but Dunn said Lawrence did not descend into similar problems. Lakewood, N.J., also has an Orthodox-dominated board and has experienced tensions.
Laura Barbieri, a lawyer with Advocates for Justice, which is suing the district on behalf of public-school parents and other taxpayers, said the board is catering to Orthodox parents who “do not want their children educated with children of color.”
“Do I think racial discrimination is at the core of this? Yes I do,” she said.
Schwartz dismisses claims that an Orthodox-dominated school board can’t represent the public school interests.
“Men can legislate for women, women can legislate for men, white people can legislate for black people and black people can legislate for white people,” he said. “I don’t see where it makes any difference.”
Asked if he felt anti-Semitism played a part in criticism of the board, he said only, “I can make my assumptions.” Last year he said some critics were engaging in “an age-old anti-Semitic trope” that Jews were interested only in money.
He said money — “more money from the state” — is the solution to East Ramapo’s problems. But state Assemblyman Ken Zebrowski said the division in the community is too deep for that to work.
“Public school parents have said, ‘We don’t want any more money.'” Zebrowski said. “They don’t trust their own school board with additional money.”
The Democratic assemblyman has proposed instead that East Ramapo be divided into two school districts, one for public schools and one for private schools.
“This is an unconventional situation and we need an unconventional solution,” Zebrowski said.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2013/03/ny_school_board_battle_brings.html#incart_river
If you look at some samples of inventory, Are there many of them that were previously purchased in the last few years?
No easy way to get these numbers, you need to look at the history of every listing to determine whether or not it was recent. Not only that, but you’ve got to do it over a broad enough time period so that the results are representative and can be trended. Otherwise, it’s just too easy to read whatever you want into it. This could easily take days of clicking to even get just a few months worth of data.
That said, you would need to make this more complicated to be accurate by also tracking recent relists that are short vs not short as well. We saw recent inventory last year, and the year before, but it was coming on short. So just looking at previous sale date doesn’t give you an accurate picture.
Check out the thread from March 19th……590 posts…..like old times
From a personal financial standpoint Home Value should not be used…..it should be focused on cash flows….so if someone has a smaller mortgage, it can make sense. At this juncture, in the NY-tri-state area, there has been so much inheritance of real estate wealth, that it distorts the statistics. My town is a good example……there are some serious mouthbreathers that drive expensive german cars and own 7-figure homes, but they are as dumb as a box of rocks…….not everyone, but enough that it is noticeable…..
Natasha says:
March 22, 2013 at 6:06 am
This is the standard loan-to-value (LTV) ratio – the percentage of the property’s value that is mortgaged – financial advisers recommend for home buyers. For instance, if your income is $100,000, your home’s value shouldn’t exceed $250,000
f*kcing spam bots
Essentially I guess one needs to focus on the word “income” for many, income means “earned income”…..for many it may be passive/investment income….
That was impressive though
grim says:
March 22, 2013 at 7:42 am
f*kcing spam bots
By the way, this moderator is asleep at the switch. We are still posting on Standard Time……dufus…..
Yea yea
JJ or anyone who might have had some experience with MLP’s (Master Limited Partnerships) any opinion on them?
Here is a clot style Spring Break Movie…..
It also — in typical Korine fashion — includes chat-worthy scenes, such as Hudgens and Benson having a threesome with Franco’s character in a swimming pool, and a bloodied Alien and the AK-47-toting girls singing a Britney Spears ballad, “Everytime,” on a white grand piano overlooking the sea. Perhaps most memorable and creepy of all is Alien enthusiastically fellating a gun jammed in his mouth by one of the girls.
see another one with taste for wine on a beer budget
Re [3];
This is what I mean about used house sales people — You’re selling a nearly $1 MM dollar asset, and stand to pocket $13.5k for the privilege (that 1/4 of 5%) — do you think you could bother get the pictures right side up so prospective customers don’t have to crane their necks? Either that or explain why the chandelier was installed on a wall. If I was the seller and saw that I’d be raising hell in the Broker’s office.
Speechless.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/22/us/georgia-baby-killed/?hpt=hp_t2
Home Price Bottom Always Just Around The Corner But Never Quite Here
13 – That piece is a year old…
while the most pessimistic were Gary Shilling (A. Gary Shilling & Co.), Brad Hunter (Metrostudy), and Patrick O’Keefe (J.H. Cohn, LLP) who all expect home prices to decrease more than 4% in 2012.
…and they were all wrong.
Sausage machine for Mortgages is back!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324373204578372780673473520.html
It’s not a normal housing market; or a normal economic cycle, for that matter. I shake my head in laughter when I see “selective” stats here attempting to justify how everything is the new normal. When you factor in salary structure, the cost of medical insurance, energy, food, killer property taxes and every other variable, people are getting crushed or about to get crushed. This is not a normal market. A lot of you here are simply too young to know what normal looks like or have consumed enough fruit juice to believe otherwise.
I saw Gary Shilling on tv recently. Still saying housing prices will decrease, the stock market will crash etc. I guess if he keeps saying it, eventually he’ll get it right.
Change always scares old people.
33.Fast Eddie says:
March 22, 2013 at 9:46 am
It’s not a normal housing market; or a normal economic cycle, for that matter. I shake my head in laughter when I see “selective” stats here attempting to justify how everything is the new normal. When you factor in salary structure, the cost of medical insurance, energy, food, killer property taxes and every other variable, people are getting crushed or about to get crushed. This is not a normal market. A lot of you here are simply too young to know what normal looks like or have consumed enough fruit juice to believe otherwise
Gary (33):
Very well said. We have had 2 major bubbles in the past 15 years and we are in the middle of the third and final bubble. What makes people so ignorant that they can just go back to thinking that the problems of 5 years ago have simply vanished. Ignorance, cognitive dissonance or just plain stupidity? I do not know but what I do know is that taking out a mortgage on 4x your income is basically suicide if you only have 10k in the bank when you close on the house. You are only 2 paychecks from being destitute.
People must really have the blinders on if they think that this will be the new normal moving forward. Granted, Uncle Ben is going to print until Chairman Obamachev leaves office but what lies beyond 2016 is extremely dangerous. People who do not plan that far ahead are asking for a world of pain.
Bank failure Friday Cyprus Edition.
The German’s are still drawing a hard line in Cyprus. They won’t even let them use the pension funds to guarantee new EU loans. Looks like the first bank is going under, Laiki bank unless they (Cyprus Parliament) goes for the 10% haircut on savings and checking accounts. Apparently there aren’t that many account over 100k Euros. A good bank bad bank restructuring would provide 100 percent protection for 361,000 out of 379,000 accounts in the bank, the rest are over the 100k Euro limit.
Laiki Bank customers are doing a mini bank run in the UK. There are about 60k retired Brits living in Cyprus. No idea how many have Laiki bank accounts but there might be enough if it warranted a bunch branches in the UK, as well as Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Serbia, the UK and Malta.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/saving/article-2297472/I-money-Laiki-Bank-UK–savings-safe-I-withdraw-them.html
The FED was not lying when it said inflation is @ 2%
The real inflation rate
1983 PRICE 2012 PRICE ANNUAL INFLATION RATE
Milk, gallon $2.26 $3.58 1.5%
Eggs, dozen $0.89 $2.01 2.8%
Sugar, pound $0.35 $0.68 2.3%
Ground chuck, pound $1.73 $3.45 2.3%
Big Mac $1.60 $4.20 3.6%
Median price of home $72,351 $223,308 3.8%
Rent, 2-bedroom apartment $324 $861 3.3%
Ford Mustang $6,727 $22,200 4.0%
Airfare, JFK average* $407 $379 -0.3%
Guess jeans $60 $98 1.6%
Keds $17 $40 2.9%
Gasoline, gallon $1.20 $3.68 3.8%
Electricity, kilowatt hour** $0.0739 $0.1191 1.7%
Health insurance premium*** $783 $6,693 7.4%
Tuition, fees, 4-year public college $1,031 $8,655 7.3%
Cigarettes, per pack $0.91 $6.36 6.5%
Personal computer $3,995 $250 -8.8%
Video game box $200 $199 0.0%
First-class stamp $0.20 $0.45 2.7%
International phone call, 1 minute $2.00 $0.08 -10%
*1993 airfare prices
**1985 electricity prices
***1991 health insurance prices
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-cpi-is-not-misleading-2013-03-21
#38
30 Year AVERAGE annual inflation rate
Very well said. We have had 2 major bubbles in the past 15 years and we are in the middle of the third and final bubble.
Two major bubbles? I count 6.
2 Stock Bubbles
1 Bond Bubble
1 Gold/Precious Metals Bubble
1 Oil Bubble
1 Real Estate Bubble
#15
You are right about the price to income reatios, but there are many homes in all these communities-Paterson-Clifton-and Bergen County -that are in pre-forclosue. Some bank owned are starting to pop up as well. I counted 15 pre-forclosures in just one town in Bergen county. That means those households are not making enough income to cover their basic monthly expenses. I think people pay for everything else first and mortgage last because getting people out of their home takes a lot longer than repoing a car or turning off the utilities.
Gary can you please stop posting under a different name, unless your intent is to change your handle. I have your IP addresses.
Impersonation is probably the biggest no-no here, but second to that is posting under multiple handles (unless they are obvious enough that everyone recognizes you).
#33
So true-grocery store bills have at least doubled in the past 6 or so years, and to add to the pain-no more coupons. At least not compared to what the maufacturers used to put out for coupons. I remember going to the store with a dozen or more, now I am lucky if I have one.
I am not in denial and I am not crazy.
I am ready for the apocalypse and the impending deflation, inflation, hyperinflation, stock market crash, bond bubble, housing crash/recovery, meteor strike or whateverthef*ck. I am hoarding 1964 silver quarters and I will load them into my shotgun and point them at anyone who tries to steal my endless supply of potable sump pump water and pancake mix.
grim,
I’m posting under the one I always use. I’m not posting under multiple handles.
All Hype,
What makes people so ignorant that they can just go back to thinking that the problems of 5 years ago have simply vanished. Ignorance, cognitive dissonance or just plain stupidity?
This country has been reduced to sound bites and blurbs which is the same time span for their ability to focus.
Inflation was tamed at 2% to 3% a year in the last 30 years. Problem is salary not catching up to inflation.
Gasoline for example $1.20 in 1983 at an annual inflation rate of 3.6% it cost $3.61 today.
If prices were rising 6% at a year, then it would mean most things would cost almost six times as much as they did 30 years ago. Under this scenario, milk would cost $13 a gallon, a family car would cost $38,000, a first-class postage stamp would cost $1.15, and a gallon of gas would cost $7
http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/savings/simple-savings-calculator.aspx
(33) FE, I think I am quit older than you and I will summarize the RE markets in NJ chronologically, in reverse:
2013+ still to be seen, not normal due to inventory shortage
2008-2012 somewhat of a crash. Support from govt programs eased the pain. Not as bad as in 90-92
2001-2007 Irrational exuberance. But looking back, the real madness, highest month to month price acceleration peaked in 2004. Easing from 04-07
1996-2001 Closest to normal in 25 years w/no price inflation. Best time to buy in my memory.
1993-1996 Gradual price decreases, even more so when adjusting to inflation. Good time to buy.
1990-1992 Worst RE collapse in NJ since Great depression. I still have the newspaper headline stating so. Best time in my lifetime to make a killing (buying dirt cheap) as no govt supports back then. Bought land and built my house then.
1987-1989 Cooling down of overheated market. Market was close to normal.
1983-1986 Overheated market as in mid 2000s. Prices doubled due to Jimmy Carter inflation lag and Reagan tax law changes.
1981-1982 RE prices head downward as recession hits. Typical split in Edison, e.g. you can pickup in mid $50s.
1977-1981 RE prices climb as large corporations (ATT, pharms, etc) build and move into NJ suburbs and relocate away from NYC. Jimmy Carter inflation bumps up prices.
1973-1976 Market stagnation and despair as Gerald Ford austerity causes 10% unemployment rate in NJ.
1966-1975 Decent markets fueled by NYC home buyers moving out to NJ and flood suburban/farm space. Massive subdivisions built.
Sorry what were we talking about?
I do not mean to affend anyone nor start a vitriolic debate, just ask the question:
“…accusation of racism and anti-semitism…” Isn’t that statement redundant, or not redundant but superfluous?
17.Young Buck says:
March 22, 2013 at 7:19 am
What John is always talking about is actually true… Jews taking over a town…
N.Y. school board battle brings out racist, anti-Semitic barbs
SPRING VALLEY, N.Y. — School board meetings descend into shouting matches. Accusations of racism and anti-Semitism fly. Angry parents turn their backs on board members in a symbolic stand of disrespect.
Oh cool. 4 Part series.
Stimulus Spending Only Delays Chronic Deflation
By A. Gary Shilling Mar 21, 2013 6:30 PM ET
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-21/stimulus-spending-only-delays-chronic-deflation.html
My property tax has grown average 6% a year since 1994.I started $2600 to $6700 today
Grim/anyone,
Any references to replace/upgrade a deck?
xolepa [48],
I agree. Remove the govt. support, let the market correct itself. Remove the wannabes and let the water level settle naturally. This stalling sh1t, props, crutches and nonsense has f*cked it up for those of us wanting to make a move.
My brother bought this beautiful expansive Cape in Glen Rock in the late 90s for 240K. Five years later he sold it for the mid 400s. In 2005, that seller sold for 710K.
Toss in all the other astronomical expenses that have doubled and tripled and you see why I laugh out loud at some of these “stats”.
(53) The Amish do the best work around here. They may be scarce your way. Where are you located?
Wayne
yome,
and if individuals earnings are not keeping up, that’s all that matters
but let me ask you anyway, the purchasing power the standard of living that’s declining for the middle/lower class… where is it going? is it just vanishing or is it being transferred elsewhere?
and posts like (52) are why people think you’re talking to yourself all day
This attitude is why you bought at the peak.
44.Brian says:
March 22, 2013 at 10:11 am
I am not in denial and I am not crazy.
I am ready for the apocalypse and the impending deflation, inflation, hyperinflation, stock market crash, bond bubble, housing crash/recovery, meteor strike or whateverthef*ck. I am hoarding 1964 silver quarters and I will load them into my shotgun and point them at anyone who tries to steal my endless supply of potable sump pump water and pancake mix.
(53) Dan, Remember there are 3 factors that control the completion of a job: Price, quality, and time to completion. The old adage states that you can only get 2 of the three.
Joyce,
I’m not semetic but I’m pretty sure that being racist and anti-semetic are not entirely the same thing. The reason why is because the word semetic references a type of language and not a specific race of people.
In the US we think of the term as equivalent with “Jewish” because that is the only time that it is used but it actually refers to the subgroup of Afro-Asiatic peoples that populate the area. What would be more accurate would be to say, all jews are semetic but not all semetic people are Jews.
A reverse question would be “Can you be racists against Americans?” The answer is No because American is not a race but rather a collection of people. You can be racist and anti-American just like you can be racist and anti-semetic.
Does that answer your question?
Yup, like you said I had the incorrect definition of semetic in my mind.
Senator John McCain said Republicans should compromise and increase tax revenues as part of a “long-term grand bargain” on the budget, and praised President Barack Obama for reaching out to senators across the aisle.“I’m open — have always been open — to closing loopholes, eliminating special deals for special interests,” McCain, of Arizona, said in an interview on “Political Capital With Al Hunt,” airing this weekend on Bloomberg Television. “If you call that, ‘raising revenues,’ I’ve been guilty all my political career” of trying to cut special-interest loopholes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-22/mccain-praising-obama-backs-revenue-compromise-on-budget.html
Joyce
Is that what they call 3 decades of upward redistribution?
Eddie, you are a clear thinker. If you are young and going to purchase a house, some things to think about:
Mortgage interest deduction going to continue?
Save more for retirement-No S.Security/means testing for Medicaid/ Medicare, no real pensions.
Health care going up, places like I work/ CVS asking for blood tests/personal health data–what will this really be used for? Is it going into a lexis-nexis type databank and come back to haunt you?
Answer to S. Security is constantly to “raise the age of entitlement.” What will the final number be when you are older? Grandma of today who should get a “haircut” in her check ishaving none of that.
NJ taxes, where can they go but up. You can cut bennies on current workers, yet you have thousands of retired/near retired that you contractually owe. It will take 40+ years to get them out of the pipeline. Not only that, but NJ is not even current on the pensions now. That boil is going to continue to fester. Expect cuts in service along with slowly increasing taxes like a frog in a heating pot.
Inflation will cost towns more, think materials for roads, etc. Cops not too keen about 4 cylinder cars, and stomp on the gas all day. Gas goes up, so do your taxes. Towns not immune to market forces.
Add yourself to the mix. Job Security, gold watch after 30? Nope, no dinosaurs left either. Both are history. Robotics taking hold doing repetitive work, now they have a robot that can de-bone a chicken. Never takes a day off, replaces tons of workers. You better be the guy fixing, designing, or installing that robot.
Got parents? Going back 5yrs, used to be 3 in financials. They are watching your assets more now then ever before. May come a time when your “cash” will need to be turned in for “digital currency” by a certain date or become worthless.
As long as they aren’t old John’s special interests it will be fine. The tax code code should be blown up. Not surprised it is coming from McCain he has been there so long his current.maverick rep is to act like a democrat. We do not have a revenue problem we have an across the board spending problem.
So Gary is Natasha?
Yeah maybe I’ll never be rich but at least I’m no longer underwater. One step at a time. I really didn’t know much about business cycles at the time either…I was in the midst of getting my degree at night school. Soon I have to start working on the Masters degree if I’m ever going to get anywhere….. Joyce, I got married in 2004 and my wife and I saved dilligently for a 20% down payment for those two years while we lived in a modest apartment. I thought we were doing everything right. I really didn’t plan on being born when i was, meeting my wife when I did etc. There’s a lot of sh1t that happens in life that’s out of your control. I don’t live my life regretting anything.
Anyway the apartment was no place for kids…they need to run around and the house seemed like the obvious next step. I saw a house I could afford to own and I bought it. It didn’t kill us, we’re fine, I have two beautiful kids, nice house, beautiful wife, and everything I need in life.
The next time I’m born I will do things differently.
58.joyce says:
March 22, 2013 at 10:43 am
This attitude is why you bought at the peak.
It’s more than 3
66
Yup, nothing is your fault
I blame the Libertarians.
68.joyce says:
March 22, 2013 at 11:49 am
66
Yup, nothing is your fault
Exactly, pick a bunch of people not including yourself.
By the way I would have said that I would load gold into my shotgun but it’s too pricey. Silver’s much cheaper. That’s about all it’s good for during an apocalypse anyway.
Who cares whose fault it is. If you spend your whole life worrying about where to place blame you’ll never enjoy your own life.
70.joyce says:
March 22, 2013 at 11:56 am
Exactly, pick a bunch of people not including yourself.
And not admitting a mistake will make it tough to learn from in the future.
[71]. Brian,
Idea is to sell before apocalypse and use cash to buy bullets. Those are still useful as seen in The Walking Dead.
PRINCETON — Superintendent Judith Wilson announced last night that she will retire in December, allowing her to avoid a salary cut required by the state cap on superintendent pay.
“Now, as my contract comes to a close in June 2014 and new legislation governs superintendent contracts, it is time for me to retire from this position and to consider the next phase of my career,” she said in a letter to the school board.
“It is with a heavy heart that and very mixed emotions that I am formally notifying you that I will retire on December 31 this year,” she wrote.
When she last negotiated her contract with the district in 2009, state regulations capping superintendent salaries had not yet come into effect. Wilson makes about $220,000 a year, according to 2011 state pension data.
Under the new regulations, Wilson would have to take a pay cut of about $52,000 if she stayed on past her contract’s expiration.
The guidelines set superintendent pay based on the number of pupils in the district. The Princeton school district has about 3,500 students.
Under the regulations, Princeton’s superintendent is in the maximum pay bracket of $165,000. Wilson would have also been an allowed an additional $2,500 because the district has a high school.
Wilson has served as superintendent since 2005. Her retirement will bring to a close a 35-year career in public education as an English teacher, reading specialist, curriculum supervisor, assistant superintendent and superintendent.
She was previously superintendent of the Woodbury school district in Gloucester County for a decade before coming to Princeton in 2005.
Grim,
Houses without basements-are they to be avoided at all costs?
(76) I can comment on that one. Basements are the standard for homes in NJ and it is expected that the house has one, except for bilevels, of course. The old word around my part of the state is that you will find it very difficult to sell that house unless – the buyers are from the South, or get this – the buyers are Oriental. Don’t ask me how or why. It’s what the RE agents have always said around here.
Yep. Probably true. So do me a favor and come down off the soapbox and relax. Don’t assume you know what I’m thinking.
73.joyce says:
March 22, 2013 at 12:04 pm
And not admitting a mistake will make it tough to learn from in the future.
[123] [prior] Fabius,
Cornell isn’t wrong, you are reading a summary (which isn’t law or even fact) and doing so incorrectly. It is not even what every first year would consider a “persuasive” citation. Further, you use it to support opinion, and one not supported by the summary. I suggest you stick to writing code.
As for the retainer copout, yeah, I suppose, but I am paid well to provide the sort of analysis you seem to require. To reply to such tiresome claims and snark is draining and diverting, so I’d rather not unless I was getting paid. Besides, I don’t ask you to write code for free just to prove you know how.
If you want to claim it as a victory, feel free. Put it on the shelf next to your EPL hardware.
[71]brian
Agree on using silver. You never know if you will have to mow down post apocalyptic werewolves ( or is that vampires?)
CND, it’s the werewolf babies you need to deal with. And it can be done with Skittles, S**tted or otherwise. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=wjZLwDRUPdQ
Cyprus is the only news that matters. Notice the near blackout on tv. Bank runs are guaranteed. If it’s not in your hand you don’t own it.
See ya later. I’m going to indulge myself in some daytime tv. Maybe there are some poor puppies that have been abused today.
Rumor has it the Cypriot Ambassador was sighted purchasing thousands of dollars worth of powerball tickets this afternoon.
Was he wearing black Lululemon yoga pants? Scandal!
[81] Phoenix,
Aargh, werewolves, zombies, Fabius, it’s like being in a Michael Jackson video.
The governor in last week’s episode brought up the other biggie, gasoline. Besides, Rick should have killed Morgan and taken all the weapons and ammo or moved the people from the prison up there (but that’s getting too far away from the comic book). You would think the sheriff would know the best defense points in his hometown…..
The above is in response to Plume’s walking dead comment.
Someone has to weave werewolves, zombies, lululemon, and Cyprus into a post.
If there was sex involved, I’d ask JJ.
Didn’t know you were thinking at all
78.Brian says:
March 22, 2013 at 12:17 pm
Yep. Probably true. So do me a favor and come down off the soapbox and relax. Don’t assume you know what I’m thinking.
73.joyce says:
March 22, 2013 at 12:04 pm
And not admitting a mistake will make it tough to learn from in the future.
Silver/Shiny;
$600k worth weighs less than 24lbs. Can easily be carried in a backpack. (Forgive if that stat was already posted here…).
Is silver shot effective against vampires/undead?
You have to use wax slugs mixed with sawdust/silver. Pretty much kills anything. Even Cypriot Ambassadors hoarding powerball tickets while wearing lululemon yoga pants.
Ha! betcha Joyce hasn’t thought of that.
Dan #53: E-mail me: brilliant at breakfast at gmail dot com (no spaces). I have a guy who just built a deck for me. Nice Portuguese guys, beautiful work. Can provide photos. It’s Clubhouse cellular PVC.
Ottoman #10: Funny you mention that; there’s a POS foreclosure down the street from me that sold in November; they’re doing a fairly conventional add-a-level, but they put that olive Hardiplank on it and it looks awesome. It would be a nice house for Fast Eddie if he weren’t so set on continuing to complain. Also, not sure it’s for sale.
[91] Brian,
Nice try but there has to be an overt reference to zombies and werewolves. But props for getting powerball tickets in there.
Will review more entries when I get back.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=relmfu&v=InbyFtvHilM
Nom/pain, for you guys.
[6] grim – Right on all counts, especially the location. Where everyone in Glen Rock wants to be is between Doremus, Rock Road, and Lincoln, but not actually on any of those streets. You would be surprised at how many families move around within that neighborhood, or move from other parts of Glen Rock into that neighborhood.
3 – That house is actually pretty cool, I’ve driven by it lots of times (it’s on Lincoln Ave really). It’s larger than the pictures make it seem, something like 4000 or 5000 square feet, which is incredible when you consider it was a 1920s house. It belongs in the Hollywood Hills, not in Glen Rock. It’s been for sale for a while, I remember it back when it was in the $1.2m range. This is an incredibly difficult sale, not only is the price a problem for GR, but the location is poo poo. I imagine in 1925 the location looked quite different (was 208 even in existence?) That newer home in the rear that was flagged in wasn’t there for sure.
I was on the hunt for Lululemon yogas pants in soho in the rain, which had become scarce since declared morally objectionable by the illiterati and Glen from girlsinyogapants.com was drawn and quartered by Homeland Security when I came upon a werewolf with a chinesse menu in his hand. He was looking for a place called Le Ho Fooks and was going to get a big dish of beef chow main. Now normally this would had disturbed me, a werewolf seeking chinese on a rainy night but since Cyprus had been been zombified by russian mobsters, Obama had declared himself and his heirs gods of the sun, and JJ’s winky shriveled up and died it was just Tuesday.
97 – Nom – Is that a 2 point penalty since he didn’t use ‘scungilli’?
How does the PVC decking look? Any pictures?
I’ll tell you, the deep grooves on the Trex Transcend make cleaning off muddy dog prints a pain in the rear (rain washes the mud into the grooves making it look twotone).
I’m going to need to give it a good scrub down as soon as we make it through the spring rains.
“How does the PVC decking look? Any pictures?”
That stuff is best thrown in the recycle bin.
http://presscapsule.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/IMG_0615-300×225.jpg
That picture is extruded vinyl, I wouldn’t recommend that either. I bet you that if you dropped something on that decking in the cold of winter, it would shatter.
Cellular pvc is different all together, think AZEK trim for a better comparison (although the decking is more rigid/heavier).
Grim #99: I’ll post some pix to Flickr this weekend and post a link. It’ll have the contracting company’s name, is that OK to post? It is Clubhouse Decking: http://www.deceuninck-americas.com/clubhouse-decking/
I went to Kuiken Bros., the Trex looked just fake (sorry, grim). I’d read horror stories about the TimberTech and chalking. I saw this stuff at Behnke Lumber on Route 17, ,and it was gorgeous. It has one color on one side, another on the other side. Mine is “ipe” on one side and I think mahogany on the other. The ipe color is really nice. Who knows what it’ll be like in summer, but my picky neighbor was impressed. I just do not have time to handle the maintenance of wood. Now my brother-in-law has all kinds of decking at their house — big deck off the kitchen, balcony deck, decks connecting to the garage — and he does NOTHING with it. Of course they live in the woods, not in the suboibs, where you have to have Curb Appeal(TM).
Jill 93
email sent.
checked out the link jill posted, which led to this video. impressive work here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwP5HmuDyTo&feature=player_detailpage#t=53s
I’d always favor a bluestone patio over decking.
If your patio door is elevated, add a couple steps down, then a smallish mid-level seating area, then a few more steps down to the main ground-level patio. It will cost more, but will last 30-40 years and have zero maintenance.
#99
I have a trex copycat and it is a pain in the arse. Gets dirty easy and moldy. We power wash it every spring.
Grim 98 no bonus points for using Warren Zevon? Nom is a lawyer and we are always talking about guns and money.
#105
Regretted not doing the patio after we did the deck. Might add the patio at the base of the deck in the future. It is prettier and less maintenance.
Yeah budget is a bitch, PVC would have easily cost me something like $4000 in decking material alone. Besides, the wife wanted a gray deck (ended up two tone gray with the white rail), so what gray decking looks real anyway?
Transcend came from Lowes, where I was able to use a 10% contractor coupon on top of their mid-season sale ($50 off $500). They weren’t supposed to combine coupons, but the website let me do it. How could I turn down Transcend at 20% off? Got it cheaper than the lumber yard would do with a contractor’s account. Hell of a lot cheaper than walk in at Kuiken for sure.
Bluestone? You aren’t even in the same universe as composite deck.
My mason told me $25k to do a patio the same size as my deck, and that is the Polska family discount. He did my stairs though, I love it.
https://njrereport.com/images/bluestone_landing.jpg
That’s $1,200 worth of bluestone tread and stone you are looking at right there, material only.
Agreed, it’s not cheap, but it adds value to the house, and will be there for decades.
http://images.landscapingnetwork.com/pictures/images/500x500Max/patio_2/rustic-patio-stone-outdoor-living-walls-steps-fire-pit-gregg-and-ellis-landscape-designs_3918.jpg
(not my house above)
I posted a story about a friend of the family that did a patio using granite curbs and sidewalk pulled out of the village. That old granite curbing goes down like 3 feet or something crazy like that. They pulled the slabs when redoing the streets and they went right into his backyard. They placed every single piece with a bobcat since they were so heavy, impossible to even move by hand. The guys patio could withstand nuclear armageddon, let alone a few decades of wear (the curbs and walks easily had 100+ years on them already, what’s a few hundred more. Besides, who else can brag about the history of their patio.
I know another guy that did a patio out of cobbles pulled out of an old street in Paterson, it is, hands down, the most beautiful material I’ve ever seen a patio done out of. Downside of the cobbles is that the surface is nowhere near flush, you can’t move a chair without getting out of it first. Who cares though, drop dead beautiful. I’d love a cobble driveway, it’d cost as much as a new BMW though.
Neither case is practical nor repeatable. Perks of owning construction companies…
Cyprus votes. Good Bank/Bad Bank Split. Accounts with under 100k euros will be protected, accounts over 100k euros will be taxed.
Grim – not what I can see, the tax on savings and checking was not passed.
I would think losing 25% of savings above 100,ooo Euros will cause an uproar with the wrong people.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/23/business/global/cyprus-bailout-vote.html?_r=0
um.. yeah no crap
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-diamonds-are-a-sham-2013-3
113-114
I haven’t seen many (any?) articles talking about the specifics of Cyprus’s deposit insurance program. I thought over 100% isn’t insured… why not let the bank(s) fail and over 100k gets what they get in bankruptcy.
Statler Waldorf,
I agree completely; BUT are enough people keen enough to recognize the blue stone and the long-lasting durability it has?
111.Statler Waldorf says:
March 22, 2013 at 4:56 pm
Agreed, it’s not cheap, but it adds value to the house, and will be there for decades.
Re:116 – they are hoping uncle Bernake or his counterpart at th ECB buys out the greek Bonds that caused the bank to go insolvent in the first place.
In front of our house in Rockaway Township, My Dad single handedly laid out a slightly curved downhill path from the front door to the mailbox using some sort of thick slate (about 3-1/2′ square by 2-3″ thick). He boxed the “steps” in with railroad ties and fill and incorporated flower boxes along the outer diameter of his design. The top platform , level with the front door was a pretty grand platform before descending along the curved decline with 6 or 7 stairs all flanked by flower boxes to the right. When he got to the end of his design he encountered a stone that may have been 15′ in diameter, judging by the little bit that poked above the surface. He spent another couple weeks chipping away at that stone to complete his design and made accommodating cuts in the remaining railroad ties to complete the large rectangular and level platform at the street level next to the mailbox. All this by a man who went to work in a suit and tie and did all this work on the weekend. That was almost 50 years ago and my Dad is still alive and in good health. Those railroad ties, flower boxes, and level steps are long gone, but every one of those slate steps, no longer level and sans flower boxes, still adorn that front lawn to this day.
Joyce -need to look elsewhere.
Cyprus’s banks were heavily exposed to the Greek debt crisis because of the large bond holdings of Greek debt, both public and private. Greece’s plight saw the value of that debt nosedive, destroying the balance sheets of banks such as Cyprus Popular Bank, which had €3.4-billion in Greek government debt, and the Bank of Cyprus, which had €2.4-billion.
When Greek government debt was written down as part of a deal in 2011, much of the remaining value of Greek debt was wiped out. Laiki Bank (Cyprus Popular Bank) lost about 76% of the value of its Greek bond holdings.
Cyprus approached the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund for assistance. The European Union said it is willing to assist, but only if Cyprus itself contributes about €7-billion in revenue, which it suggested should be generated by a tax on bank accounts in Cyprus banks.
http://mg.co.za/article/2013-03-22-00-savings-tax-mooted-to-save-cypriot-banks-sunk-by-greek-debt
Capital controls bitchez!!!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-22/cyprus-officially-passes-capital-controls-law
Coming to Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, France, New Zealand and everywhere else in the not so distant future.
Legend has it, there are some carpenters who still make decks out of wood.
#73 Eddie Ray,
What victory? For there to be a victory, there has to be a fight and you ran away at the start. To be honest it is not a surprise , that Cornell piece is just the tip of the iceberg. NSLs is a razor sharp example of the argument. You can puff all you want to on persuasive vs mandatory but you will have a long bloody walk uphill to overcome it. If you ever feel the need to come back and reclaim your honor on this topic, prep for round 2. https://www.cdt.org/security/20060109legalexpertsanalysis.pdf
I do take exception at your “I suggest you stick to writing code”. For me and the rest of the IT community, I wish I could. Unfortunately I usually end up trying to explain to the likes of the legal community why the earth isn’t flat. The big difference here comes down to IT (i.e. me) lives in the practical and legal (i.e. you) in the conceptual. I have to get stuff to do stuff, you have to work out if it will stand up in court. When I ask you what do I need to do the answer is usually “I don’t know!” For a good example lets look at Sarbanes-Oxley. IT and Finance asked “what do we have to do?” they got back from legal a very big “Hmmm, the law is too vague and there is no precedent!” So here is what happened. The CEO and the boards freaked when the heard they had to sign off on the books and would go to the big house if it was wrong. IT and Finance after getting nothing from legal stepped up, went draconian and said, we have to do it this way or the CEO goes down and thus we have corporate reform. Finance now have control of the books and IT have control over the systems and all is well. So a big high five to the finance peeps. There have been no significant SOX lawsuits, legal didn’t have to go to court, so all is well.
#115 WickedOrange
Reminds me of some great advice I got years ago.
There are few times when you should lie to anyone especially a woman. When you do you have to do it with conviction, with a straight face and no emotion. The first is a small engagement ring and then second is an ugly baby!
Legend has it, there are some carpenters who still make decks out of wood.
http://i45.tinypic.com/21m81vo.jpg
Every deck board is full length 2×6 cedar, screwed from underneath. No joints. No nails.
Natasha (9)-
No future at all. Just the gnashing of teeth. We are all Cypriots now.
“Blib or not in the housing market people are in trouble in this area. There are NOT that many people that fit the profile I posted for a healthy financial future.”
brain (51)-
One only has to look at the zombie-like state Japan has been in for 20+ years to know this is 100% true.
“Stimulus Spending Only Delays Chronic Deflation”
joyce (70)-
Keep in mind that you are addressing a sheep.